WorldWideScience

Sample records for cost estimation methodology

  1. [Methodologies for estimating the indirect costs of traffic accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carozzi, Soledad; Elorza, María Eugenia; Moscoso, Nebel Silvana; Ripari, Nadia Vanina

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents generate multiple costs to society, including those associated with the loss of productivity. However, there is no consensus about the most appropriate methodology for estimating those costs. The aim of this study was to review methods for estimating indirect costs applied in crash cost studies. A thematic review of the literature was carried out between 1995 and 2012 in PubMed with the terms cost of illness, indirect cost, road traffic injuries, productivity loss. For the assessment of costs we used the the human capital method, on the basis of the wage-income lost during the time of treatment and recovery of patients and caregivers. In the case of premature death or total disability, the discount rate was applied to obtain the present value of lost future earnings. The computed years arose by subtracting to life expectancy at birth the average age of those affected who are not incorporated into the economically active life. The interest in minimizing the problem is reflected in the evolution of the implemented methodologies. We expect that this review is useful to estimate efficiently the real indirect costs of traffic accidents.

  2. A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, Veronica L.; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver L.

    2016-01-01

    Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth

  3. A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, Veronica L.; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities

  4. Evaluation of economic effects of population ageing--methodology of estimating indirect costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Agata; Czech, Marcin; Gębska-Kuczerowska, Anita

    2015-01-01

    Process of demographic ageing, especially in recent decades, is steadily growing in dynamics and importance due to increasing health-related needs and expectations with regard to a guarantee of social services. Elaboration of the most effective model of care, tailored to Polish conditions, requires an estimation of actual costs of this care, including indirect costs which are greatly related to informal care. The fact that the costs of informal care are omitted, results from a determined approach to analyses. It is discussed only from a perspective of budget for health and does not cover societal aspects. In such situation, however, the costs borne by a receiver of services are neglected. As a consequence, the costs of informal care are underestimated or often excluded from calculations, even if they include indirect costs. Comprehensive methodological approach for estimating the costs of informal care seems to be important for a properly conducted economic evaluation in health care sector.

  5. [Methodology for estimating total direct costs of comprehensive care for non-communicable diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Nancy; Malo, Miguel; Villacres, Nilda; Chauca, José; Cornetero, Víctor; de Flores, Karin Roedel; Tapia, Rafaela; Ríos, Raúl

    2017-01-01

    RESUMEN Diseases like diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HT) generate high costs and are the most common cause of mortality in the Americas. In the case of Peru, given demographic and epidemiological changes, particularly the alarming increase in overweight and obesity, the burden of these diseases is constantly increasing, resulting in the need to budget more financial resources to the health services. The total care costs of these diseases and their complications represent a financial burden that should be considered very carefully by health institutions when they draft their budgets. With this aim, the Pan American Health Organization has assisted the Ministry of Health (MINSA) with a study to estimate these costs. This article graphically describes the methodology developed to estimate the direct costs of comprehensive care for DM and HT to the health services of MINSA and regional governments.

  6. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

  7. Estimation of the laser cutting operating cost by support vector regression methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jović, Srđan; Radović, Aleksandar; Šarkoćević, Živče; Petković, Dalibor; Alizamir, Meysam

    2016-09-01

    Laser cutting is a popular manufacturing process utilized to cut various types of materials economically. The operating cost is affected by laser power, cutting speed, assist gas pressure, nozzle diameter and focus point position as well as the workpiece material. In this article, the process factors investigated were: laser power, cutting speed, air pressure and focal point position. The aim of this work is to relate the operating cost to the process parameters mentioned above. CO2 laser cutting of stainless steel of medical grade AISI316L has been investigated. The main goal was to analyze the operating cost through the laser power, cutting speed, air pressure, focal point position and material thickness. Since the laser operating cost is a complex, non-linear task, soft computing optimization algorithms can be used. Intelligent soft computing scheme support vector regression (SVR) was implemented. The performance of the proposed estimator was confirmed with the simulation results. The SVR results are then compared with artificial neural network and genetic programing. According to the results, a greater improvement in estimation accuracy can be achieved through the SVR compared to other soft computing methodologies. The new optimization methods benefit from the soft computing capabilities of global optimization and multiobjective optimization rather than choosing a starting point by trial and error and combining multiple criteria into a single criterion.

  8. Estimating the cost of accidents and ill-health at work : a review of methodologies technical annex

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerd, M. de; Tierney, R.; Duuren-Stuurman, B. van; Bertranou, E.

    2014-01-01

    This technical annex complements the report 'Estimating the cost of accidents and ill-health at work - a review of methodologies' by providing further details on each of the studies reviewed, including their results.

  9. A methodology to identify stranded generation facilities and estimate stranded costs for Louisiana's electric utility industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cope, Robert Frank, III

    1998-12-01

    The electric utility industry in the United States is currently experiencing a new and different type of growing pain. It is the pain of having to restructure itself into a competitive business. Many industry experts are trying to explain how the nation as a whole, as well as individual states, will implement restructuring and handle its numerous "transition problems." One significant transition problem for federal and state regulators rests with determining a utility's stranded costs. Stranded generation facilities are assets which would be uneconomic in a competitive environment or costs for assets whose regulated book value is greater than market value. At issue is the methodology which will be used to estimate stranded costs. The two primary methods are known as "Top-Down" and "Bottom-Up." The "Top-Down" approach simply determines the present value of the losses in revenue as the market price for electricity changes over a period of time into the future. The problem with this approach is that it does not take into account technical issues associated with the generation and wheeling of electricity. The "Bottom-Up" approach computes the present value of specific strandable generation facilities and compares the resulting valuations with their historical costs. It is regarded as a detailed and difficult, but more precise, approach to identifying stranded assets and their associated costs. This dissertation develops a "Bottom-Up" quantitative, optimization-based approach to electric power wheeling within the state of Louisiana. It optimally evaluates all production capabilities and coordinates the movement of bulk power through transmission interconnections of competing companies in and around the state. Sensitivity analysis to this approach is performed by varying seasonal consumer demand, electric power imports, and transmission inter-connection cost parameters. Generation facility economic dispatch and transmission interconnection bulk power transfers, specific

  10. Probabilistic Methodology for Estimation of Number and Economic Loss (Cost) of Future Landslides in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crovelli, Robert A.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

    2008-01-01

    The Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) presented in this report estimates the number and economic loss (cost) of landslides during a specified future time in individual areas, and then calculates the sum of those estimates. The analytic probabilistic methodology is based upon conditional probability theory and laws of expectation and variance. The probabilistic methodology is expressed in the form of a Microsoft Excel computer spreadsheet program. Using historical records, the PLACES spreadsheet is used to estimate the number of future damaging landslides and total damage, as economic loss, from future landslides caused by rainstorms in 10 counties of the San Francisco Bay region in California. Estimates are made for any future 5-year period of time. The estimated total number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region during any future 5-year period of time is about 330. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated number of damaging landslides (about 90), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated number of damaging landslides (5?6 each). Estimated direct costs from future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region for any future 5-year period are about US $76 million (year 2000 dollars). San Mateo County has the highest estimated costs ($16.62 million), and Solano County has the lowest estimated costs (about $0.90 million). Estimated direct costs are also subdivided into public and private costs.

  11. A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianzhong Jay; Datta, Koushik; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

  12. Acquisition Cost/Price Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    SYSTEMS, RECOMMENDING COST COALS FOR THOSE SYSTEMS, AND VALIDATING THOSE ESTIMATES THROUGH INDEPENDENT COSTING METHODS. INSTRUMENTS THROUGH WHICH SYSTEM...REVIEW AND VALIDATION, (3) RESEARCH AND METHODOLOGY AND (4) DATA ANALYSIS. THESE FUNCTIONAL THRUSTS ARE IN TURN FOCUSED TO ESTIMATING AND ANALISIS ...ANALYSIS OF COST ISSUES -- TO PROVIDE CONSISTENCY AND COMPLETENESS OF ESTIMATES PREPARED BY OTHER FUNCTIONAL ACTIVITIES. MANAGERIAL 1. COST ANALISIS HAS

  13. Price and cost estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, R. D.

    1979-01-01

    Price and Cost Estimating Program (PACE II) was developed to prepare man-hour and material cost estimates. Versatile and flexible tool significantly reduces computation time and errors and reduces typing and reproduction time involved in preparation of cost estimates.

  14. Tunnel and Station Cost Methodology : Mined Tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to develop a model for estimating the cost of subway station and tunnel construction. This report describes a cost estimating methodology for subway tunnels that can be used by planners, designers, owners, and gov...

  15. Cost function estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, C K; Andersen, K; Kragh-Sørensen, P

    2000-01-01

    Statistical analysis of cost data is often difficult because of highly skewed data resulting from a few patients who incur high costs relative to the majority of patients. When the objective is to predict the cost for an individual patient, the literature suggests that one should choose...... on these criteria, a two-part model was chosen. In this model, the probability of incurring any costs was estimated using a logistic regression, while the level of the costs was estimated in the second part of the model. The choice of model had a substantial impact on the predicted health care costs, e...... a regression model based on the quality of its predictions. In exploring the econometric issues, the objective of this study was to estimate a cost function in order to estimate the annual health care cost of dementia. Using different models, health care costs were regressed on the degree of dementia, sex, age...

  16. Cost-Estimation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Brian

    1995-01-01

    COSTIT computer program estimates cost of electronic design by reading item-list file and file containing cost for each item. Accuracy of cost estimate based on accuracy of cost-list file. Written by use of AWK utility for Sun4-series computers running SunOS 4.x and IBM PC-series and compatible computers running MS-DOS. The Sun version (NPO-19587). PC version (NPO-19157).

  17. Methodology to estimate the cost of the severe accidents risk / maximum benefit; Metodologia para estimar el costo del riesgo de accidentes severos / beneficio maximo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendoza, G.; Flores, R. M.; Vega, E., E-mail: gozalo.mendoza@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2016-09-15

    For programs and activities to manage aging effects, any changes to plant operations, inspections, maintenance activities, systems and administrative control procedures during the renewal period should be characterized, designed to manage the effects of aging as required by 10 Cfr Part 54 that could impact the environment. Environmental impacts significantly different from those described in the final environmental statement for the current operating license should be described in detail. When complying with the requirements of a license renewal application, the Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis is contained in a supplement to the environmental report of the plant that meets the requirements of 10 Cfr Part 51. In this paper, the methodology for estimating the cost of severe accidents risk is established and discussed, which is then used to identify and select the alternatives for severe accident mitigation, which are analyzed to estimate the maximum benefit that an alternative could achieve if this eliminate all risk. Using the regulatory analysis techniques of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates the cost of severe accidents risk. The ultimate goal of implementing the methodology is to identify candidates for SAMA that have the potential to reduce the severe accidents risk and determine if the implementation of each candidate is cost-effective. (Author)

  18. Capital cost estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    The capital cost estimate for the nuclear process heat source (NPHS) plant was made by: (1) using costs from the current commercial HTGR for electricity production as a base for items that are essentially the same and (2) development of new estimates for modified or new equipment that is specifically for the process heat application. Results are given in tabular form and cover the total investment required for each process temperature studied.

  19. Software cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemstra, F.J.; Heemstra, F.J.

    1993-01-01

    The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

  20. Electric propulsion cost estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palaszewski, B. A.

    1985-01-01

    A parametric cost model for mercury ion propulsion modules is presented. A detailed work breakdown structure is included. Cost estimating relationships were developed for the individual subsystems and the nonhardware items (systems engineering, software, etc.). Solar array and power processor unit (PPU) costs are the significant cost drivers. Simplification of both of these subsystems through applications of advanced technology (lightweight solar arrays and high-efficiency, self-radiating PPUs) can reduce costs. Comparison of the performance and cost of several chemical propulsion systems with the Hg ion module are also presented. For outer-planet missions, advanced solar electric propulsion (ASEP) trip times and O2/H2 propulsion trip times are comparable. A three-year trip time savings over the baselined NTO/MMH propulsion system is possible with ASEP.

  1. A cost effective and operational methodology for wall to wall Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and carbon stocks estimation and mapping: Nepal REDD+

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilani, H., Sr.; Ganguly, S.; Zhang, G.; Koju, U. A.; Murthy, M. S. R.; Nemani, R. R.; Manandhar, U.; Thapa, G. J.

    2015-12-01

    Nepal is a landlocked country with 39% forest cover of the total land area (147,181 km2). Under the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) and implemented by the World Bank (WB), Nepal chosen as one of four countries best suitable for results-based payment system for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD and REDD+) scheme. At the national level Landsat based, from 1990 to 2000 the forest area has declined by 2%, i.e. by 1467 km2, whereas from 2000 to 2010 it has declined only by 0.12% i.e. 176 km2. A cost effective monitoring and evaluation system for REDD+ requires a balanced approach of remote sensing and ground measurements. This paper provides, for Nepal a cost effective and operational 30 m Above Ground Biomass (AGB) estimation and mapping methodology using freely available satellite data integrated with field inventory. Leaf Area Index (LAI) generated based on propose methodology by Ganguly et al. (2012) using Landsat-8 the OLI cloud free images. To generate tree canopy height map, a density scatter graph between the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) estimated maximum height and Landsat LAI nearest to the center coordinates of the GLAS shots show a moderate but significant exponential correlation (31.211*LAI0.4593, R2= 0.33, RMSE=13.25 m). From the field well distributed circular (750m2 and 500m2), 1124 field plots (0.001% representation of forest cover) measured which were used for estimation AGB (ton/ha) using Sharma et al. (1990) proposed equations for all tree species of Nepal. A satisfactory linear relationship (AGB = 8.7018*Hmax-101.24, R2=0.67, RMSE=7.2 ton/ha) achieved between maximum canopy height (Hmax) and AGB (ton/ha). This cost effective and operational methodology is replicable, over 5-10 years with minimum ground samples through integration of satellite images. Developed AGB used to produce optimum fuel wood scenarios using population and road

  2. Strategic Methodologies in Public Health Cost Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittington, Melanie; Atherly, Adam; VanRaemdonck, Lisa; Lampe, Sarah

    The National Research Agenda for Public Health Services and Systems Research states the need for research to determine the cost of delivering public health services in order to assist the public health system in communicating financial needs to decision makers, partners, and health reform leaders. The objective of this analysis is to compare 2 cost estimation methodologies, public health manager estimates of employee time spent and activity logs completed by public health workers, to understand to what degree manager surveys could be used in lieu of more time-consuming and burdensome activity logs. Employees recorded their time spent on communicable disease surveillance for a 2-week period using an activity log. Managers then estimated time spent by each employee on a manager survey. Robust and ordinary least squares regression was used to measure the agreement between the time estimated by the manager and the time recorded by the employee. The 2 outcomes for this study included time recorded by the employee on the activity log and time estimated by the manager on the manager survey. This study was conducted in local health departments in Colorado. Forty-one Colorado local health departments (82%) agreed to participate. Seven of the 8 models showed that managers underestimate their employees' time, especially for activities on which an employee spent little time. Manager surveys can best estimate time for time-intensive activities, such as total time spent on a core service or broad public health activity, and yet are less precise when estimating discrete activities. When Public Health Services and Systems Research researchers and health departments are conducting studies to determine the cost of public health services, there are many situations in which managers can closely approximate the time required and produce a relatively precise approximation of cost without as much time investment by practitioners.

  3. An approach to software cost estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgarry, F.; Page, J.; Card, D.; Rohleder, M.; Church, V.

    1984-01-01

    A general procedure for software cost estimation in any environment is outlined. The basic concepts of work and effort estimation are explained, some popular resource estimation models are reviewed, and the accuracy of source estimates is discussed. A software cost prediction procedure based on the experiences of the Software Engineering Laboratory in the flight dynamics area and incorporating management expertise, cost models, and historical data is described. The sources of information and relevant parameters available during each phase of the software life cycle are identified. The methodology suggested incorporates these elements into a customized management tool for software cost prediction. Detailed guidelines for estimation in the flight dynamics environment developed using this methodology are presented.

  4. Cost Methodology for Biomass Feedstocks: Herbaceous Crops and Agricultural Residues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turhollow Jr, Anthony F [ORNL; Webb, Erin [ORNL; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine [ORNL

    2009-12-01

    This report describes a set of procedures and assumptions used to estimate production and logistics costs of bioenergy feedstocks from herbaceous crops and agricultural residues. The engineering-economic analysis discussed here is based on methodologies developed by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers (ASABE) and the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA). An engineering-economic analysis approach was chosen due to lack of historical cost data for bioenergy feedstocks. Instead, costs are calculated using assumptions for equipment performance, input prices, and yield data derived from equipment manufacturers, research literature, and/or standards. Cost estimates account for fixed and variable costs. Several examples of this costing methodology used to estimate feedstock logistics costs are included at the end of this report.

  5. High School Students' Accuracy in Estimating the Cost of College: A Proposed Methodological Approach and Differences among Racial/Ethnic Groups and College Financial-Related Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nienhusser, H. Kenny; Oshio, Toko

    2017-01-01

    High school students' accuracy in estimating the cost of college (AECC) was examined by utilizing a new methodological approach, the absolute-deviation-continuous construct. This study used the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) data and examined 10,530 11th grade students in order to measure their AECC for 4-year public and private…

  6. Methodology for modelling plug-in electric vehicles in the power system and cost estimates for a system with either smart or dumb electric vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiviluoma, Juha; Meibom, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The article estimates the costs of plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) in a future power system as well as the benefits from smart charging and discharging EVs (smart EVs). To arrive in a good estimate, a generation planning model was used to create power plant portfolios, which were operated in a more...... of the benefits of smart EVs come from smart timing of charging although benefits are also accrued from provision of reserves and lower power plant portfolio cost. The benefits of smart EVs are 227 €/vehicle/year. This amount has to cover all expenses related to enabling smart EVs and need to be divided between...

  7. Cost Estimating Handbook for Environmental Restoration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1990-09-01

    Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and cost estimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimated cost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for cost estimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist cost estimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals.

  8. COST ESTIMATING RELATIONSHIPS IN ONSHORE DRILLING PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo de Melo e Silva Accioly

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimating relationships (CERs are very important tools in the planning phases of an upstream project. CERs are, in general, multiple regression models developed to estimate the cost of a particular item or scope of a project. They are based in historical data that should pass through a normalization process before fitting a model. In the early phases they are the primary tool for cost estimating. In later phases they are usually used as an estimation validation tool and sometimes for benchmarking purposes. As in any other modeling methodology there are number of important steps to build a model. In this paper the process of building a CER to estimate drilling cost of onshore wells will be addressed.

  9. Least-cost Paths - Some Methodological Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irmela Herzog

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with methodological issues connected with least-cost path (LCP calculations in archaeology. The number of LCP studies in archaeology has increased rapidly during the last couple of years, but not all of the approaches applied are based on an appropriate model and implementation. Many archaeologists rely on standard GIS software with default settings for calculating LCPs and are not aware of possible alternatives and the pitfalls that are described in this article. After briefly introducing the aims and applications of LCP methods in archaeology, LCP algorithms are discussed. The outcome of the LCP calculations depends not only on the algorithm but also on the cost model, which often includes several cost components. The discussion of the cost components has a focus on slope, because nearly all archaeological LCP studies take this cost component into account and because several methodological issues are connected with slope-based cost models. Other possible cost components are: the load of the walker, vegetation cover, wetlands or other soil properties, travelling and transport on water, water as barrier and as attractor, aspect, altitude, and social or cultural cost components. Eventually, advantages and disadvantages of different ways of combining cost components are presented. Based on the methodological issues I conclude that both validation checks and variations of the model are necessary to analyse the reliability of archaeological LCP results.

  10. A dynamic model for airframe cost estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Ronald L.

    1986-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The Department of Defense has historically favored a relatively simple parametric approach to cost estimation. Economic theory has largely been ignored and the learning curve has become the customary analytical tool for relating production quantities to airframe costs. This research examines an effort to synthesize neoclassical economic theory with the traditional learning curve methodology. The proposed model impl...

  11. Development of regional stump-to-mill logging cost estimators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris B. LeDoux; John E. Baumgras

    1989-01-01

    Planning logging operations requires estimating the logging costs for the sale or tract being harvested. Decisions need to be made on equipment selection and its application to terrain. In this paper a methodology is described that has been developed and implemented to solve the problem of accurately estimating logging costs by region. The methodology blends field time...

  12. The Psychology of Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Andy

    2016-01-01

    Cost estimation for large (and even not so large) government programs is a challenge. The number and magnitude of cost overruns associated with large Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs highlight the difficulties in developing and promulgating accurate cost estimates. These overruns can be the result of inadequate technology readiness or requirements definition, the whims of politicians or government bureaucrats, or even as failures of the cost estimating profession itself. However, there may be another reason for cost overruns that is right in front of us, but only recently have we begun to grasp it: the fact that cost estimators and their customers are human. The last 70+ years of research into human psychology and behavioral economics have yielded amazing findings into how we humans process and use information to make judgments and decisions. What these scientists have uncovered is surprising: humans are often irrational and illogical beings, making decisions based on factors such as emotion and perception, rather than facts and data. These built-in biases to our thinking directly affect how we develop our cost estimates and how those cost estimates are used. We cost estimators can use this knowledge of biases to improve our cost estimates and also to improve how we communicate and work with our customers. By understanding how our customers think, and more importantly, why they think the way they do, we can have more productive relationships and greater influence. By using psychology to our advantage, we can more effectively help the decision maker and our organizations make fact-based decisions.

  13. Rule-Based Flight Software Cost Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stukes, Sherry A.; Spagnuolo, John N. Jr.

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the fundamental process for the computation of Flight Software (FSW) cost estimates. This process has been incorporated in a rule-based expert system [1] that can be used for Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs), Proposals, and for the validation of Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) submissions. A high-level directed graph (referred to here as a decision graph) illustrates the steps taken in the production of these estimated costs and serves as a basis of design for the expert system described in this paper. Detailed discussions are subsequently given elaborating upon the methodology, tools, charts, and caveats related to the various nodes of the graph. We present general principles for the estimation of FSW using SEER-SEM as an illustration of these principles when appropriate. Since Source Lines of Code (SLOC) is a major cost driver, a discussion of various SLOC data sources for the preparation of the estimates is given together with an explanation of how contractor SLOC estimates compare with the SLOC estimates used by JPL. Obtaining consistency in code counting will be presented as well as factors used in reconciling SLOC estimates from different code counters. When sufficient data is obtained, a mapping into the JPL Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) from the SEER-SEM output is illustrated. For across the board FSW estimates, as was done for the NASA Discovery Mission proposal estimates performed at JPL, a comparative high-level summary sheet for all missions with the SLOC, data description, brief mission description and the most relevant SEER-SEM parameter values is given to illustrate an encapsulation of the used and calculated data involved in the estimates. The rule-based expert system described provides the user with inputs useful or sufficient to run generic cost estimation programs. This system's incarnation is achieved via the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and will be addressed at the end of this paper.

  14. Software Cost-Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, R. C.

    1985-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation Model SOFTCOST provides automated resource and schedule model for software development. Combines several cost models found in open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms. Compensates for nearly fifty implementation factors relative to size of task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment and difficulty of task.

  15. Progress Toward Automated Cost Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Joseph A.

    1992-01-01

    Report discusses efforts to develop standard system of automated cost estimation (ACE) and computer-aided design (CAD). Advantage of system is time saved and accuracy enhanced by automating extraction of quantities from design drawings, consultation of price lists, and application of cost and markup formulas.

  16. 10 CFR 436.12 - Life cycle cost methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Life cycle cost methodology. 436.12 Section 436.12 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION FEDERAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND PLANNING PROGRAMS Methodology and Procedures for Life Cycle Cost Analyses § 436.12 Life cycle cost methodology. The life cycle cost methodology...

  17. A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castagne, S.; Curran, R.; Rothwell, A.; Price, M.; Benard, E.; Raghunathan, S.

    2008-01-01

    A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost

  18. Estimates of patient costs related with population morbidity: can indirect costs affect the results?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreras, M; García-Goñi, M; Ibern, P; Coderch, J; Vall-Llosera, L; Inoriza, J M

    2011-08-01

    A number of health economics studies require patient cost estimates as basic information input. However, the accuracy of cost estimates remains generally unspecified. We propose to investigate how the allocation of indirect costs or overheads can affect the estimation of patient costs and lead to improvements in the analysis of patient cost estimates. Instead of focussing on the costing method, this paper will highlight observed changes in variation explained by a methodology choice. We compare four overhead allocation methods for a specific Spanish population adjusted using the Clinical Risk Groups model. Our main conclusion is that the amount of global variation explained by the risk adjustment model depends mainly on direct costs, regardless of the cost allocation methodology used. Furthermore, the variation explained can be slightly increased, depending on the cost allocation methodology, and is independent of the level of aggregation in the classification system.

  19. Organizational Change Efforts: Methodologies for Assessing Organizational Effectiveness and Program Costs versus Benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macy, Barry A.; Mirvis, Philip H.

    1982-01-01

    A standardized methodology for identifying, defining, and measuring work behavior and performance rather than production, and a methodology that estimates the costs and benefits of work innovation are presented for assessing organizational effectiveness and program costs versus benefits in organizational change programs. Factors in a cost-benefit…

  20. An improved COCOMO software cost estimation model | Duke ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we discuss the methodologies adopted previously in software cost estimation using the COnstructive COst MOdels (COCOMOs). From our analysis, COCOMOs produce very high software development efforts, which eventually produce high software development costs. Consequently, we propose its extension, ...

  1. Estimating the Energy Costs of Intermittent Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Christopher B.; Fountaine, Charles

    2013-01-01

    To date, steady state models represent the only acceptable methodology for the estimation of exercise energy costs. Conversely, comparisons made between continuous and intermittent exercise generally reveal major physiological discrepancies, leading to speculation as to why steady state energy expenditure models should be applied to intermittent exercise. Under intermittent conditions, skeletal muscle invokes varying aerobic and anaerobic metabolic responses, each with the potential to make significant contributions to overall energy costs. We hypothesize that if the aerobic-only energetic profile of steady state exercise can be used to estimate the energetics of non-steady state and intermittent exercise, then the converse also must be true. In fact, reasonable estimates of energy costs to work volumes or work rates can be demonstrated under steady state, non-steady state and intermittent conditions; the problem with the latter two is metabolic variability. Using resistance training as a model, estimates of both aerobic and anaerobic energy cost components, as opposed to one or the other, have reduced the overall energetic variability that appears inherent to brief, intense, intermittent exercise models. PMID:24235988

  2. Cost Estimates and Investment Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emhjellen, Kjetil; Emhjellen Magne; Osmundsen, Petter

    2001-08-01

    When evaluating new investment projects, oil companies traditionally use the discounted cashflow method. This method requires expected cashflows in the numerator and a risk adjusted required rate of return in the denominator in order to calculate net present value. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a project is one of the major cashflows used to calculate net present value. Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. In the oil industry and many other industries, it is common practice to report a CAPEX that is the estimated 50/50 (median) CAPEX instead of the estimated expected (expected value) CAPEX. In this article we demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX, when the cost distributions are asymmetric, causes project valuation errors and therefore may lead to wrong investment decisions with acceptance of projects that have negative net present values. (author)

  3. How to estimate productivity costs in economic evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krol, Marieke; Brouwer, Werner

    2014-04-01

    Productivity costs are frequently omitted from economic evaluations, despite their often strong impact on cost-effectiveness outcomes. This neglect may be partly explained by the lack of standardization regarding the methodology of estimating productivity costs. This paper aims to contribute to standardization of productivity cost methodology by offering practical guidance on how to estimate productivity costs in economic evaluations. The paper discusses the identification, measurement and valuation of productivity losses. It is recommended to include not only productivity losses related to absenteeism from and reduced productivity at paid work, but also those related to unpaid work. Hence, it is recommended to use a measurement instrument including questions about both paid and unpaid productivity, such as the iMTA Productivity Cost Questionnaire (iPCQ) or the Valuation of Lost Productivity (VOLP). We indicate how to apply the friction cost and the human capital approach and give practical guidance on deriving final cost estimates.

  4. Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Walter E.; Vanhook, Michael E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

  5. Theoretical, Methodological, and Empirical Approaches to Cost Savings: A Compendium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M Weimar

    1998-12-10

    This publication summarizes and contains the original documentation for understanding why the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) privatization approach provides cost savings and the different approaches that could be used in calculating cost savings for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Phase I contract. The initial section summarizes the approaches in the different papers. The appendices are the individual source papers which have been reviewed by individuals outside of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the TWRS Program. Appendix A provides a theoretical basis for and estimate of the level of savings that can be" obtained from a fixed-priced contract with performance risk maintained by the contractor. Appendix B provides the methodology for determining cost savings when comparing a fixed-priced contractor with a Management and Operations (M&O) contractor (cost-plus contractor). Appendix C summarizes the economic model used to calculate cost savings and provides hypothetical output from preliminary calculations. Appendix D provides the summary of the approach for the DOE-Richland Operations Office (RL) estimate of the M&O contractor to perform the same work as BNFL Inc. Appendix E contains information on cost growth and per metric ton of glass costs for high-level waste at two other DOE sites, West Valley and Savannah River. Appendix F addresses a risk allocation analysis of the BNFL proposal that indicates,that the current approach is still better than the alternative.

  6. Influence of the excitation force estimator methodology within a predictive controller framework on the overall cost of energy minimisation of a wave energy converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferri, Francesco; Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2015-01-01

    is linked to the cost of the energy (CoE) produced from the different wave energy converters (WEC). The CoE from the different WECs is not yet comparable with other energy resources, due to a relative low efficiency coupled with the high structural costs. Within the sector a large effort has been addressed...... investigated witha sequential approach, and the results have been reported for different control strategies. The Model Predictive Controller (MPC) seemed to have superior performance in terms of energy maximisation and loads on the structure, leading to a minimal CoE. But as presented in [3] the MPC......A large amount of energy is freely roaming around the world each day, without us being able to exploit it: wave energy is a largely untapped source of renewable energy, which can have a substantial influence in the future energy mix. The reason behind the inability of using this free resource...

  7. Estimating the Costs of Preventive Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael; Porter, Michele M.; Ayers, Tim S.; Kaplan, Debra L.; Sandler, Irwin

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of cost estimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

  8. Association between component costs, study methodologies, and foodborne illness-related factors with the cost of nontyphoidal Salmonella illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLinden, Taylor; Sargeant, Jan M; Thomas, M Kate; Papadopoulos, Andrew; Fazil, Aamir

    2014-09-01

    Nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. are one of the most common causes of bacterial foodborne illness. Variability in cost inventories and study methodologies limits the possibility of meaningfully interpreting and comparing cost-of-illness (COI) estimates, reducing their usefulness. However, little is known about the relative effect these factors have on a cost-of-illness estimate. This is important for comparing existing estimates and when designing new cost-of-illness studies. Cost-of-illness estimates, identified through a scoping review, were used to investigate the association between descriptive, component cost, methodological, and foodborne illness-related factors such as chronic sequelae and under-reporting with the cost of nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. illness. The standardized cost of nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. illness from 30 estimates reported in 29 studies ranged from $0.01568 to $41.22 United States dollars (USD)/person/year (2012). The mean cost of nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. illness was $10.37 USD/person/year (2012). The following factors were found to be significant in multiple linear regression (p≤0.05): the number of direct component cost categories included in an estimate (0-4, particularly long-term care costs) and chronic sequelae costs (inclusion/exclusion), which had positive associations with the cost of nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. illness. Factors related to study methodology were not significant. Our findings indicated that study methodology may not be as influential as other factors, such as the number of direct component cost categories included in an estimate and costs incurred due to chronic sequelae. Therefore, these may be the most important factors to consider when designing, interpreting, and comparing cost of foodborne illness studies.

  9. Application of CERREX software for KRR-1 Decommissioning Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Yunjeong; Park, Seungkook [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Main objectives of cost estimation is to indicate the costs required to complete the decommissioning project and to optimize the dismantling sequence and timing and then minimize the decommissioning total costs. There are three types of cost estimate; (i) Order of magnitude estimate, (ii) Budgetary estimate, (iii) Definitive estimate. Second of the theses types is applied to cost calculation in this paper. This was also applied to cost estimate part of preliminary decommissioning plan for Kijang construction approval. In this paper, the methodology and procedure for decommissioning costing using CERREX software were presented and cost estimation was performed and compared with actual decommissioning cost for KRR- 1(Korea Reactor Research, Unit 1). Cost estimation for KRR-1 was carried out applying to CERREX software. Table 1 shows the result values of the calculation. The currency was calculated as USD. Calculated cost is within the limit of 'Budgetary estimate' and the values is approximately $7,800,000. Labor costs are calculated based on manpower components per involved professions and hour rates per typical professions.

  10. The methodological convention 2,0 for the estimation of environmental costs. An economic evaluation of environmental damages; Methodenkonvention 2.0 zur Schaetzung von Umweltkosten. Oekonomische Bewertung von Umweltschaeden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-08-15

    The reliable estimation of environmental damage costs requires a high degree of transparency of the objectives, assumptions and methods of assessment in order to ensure a correct classification and comparability of the cost factors. The methods convention under consideration aims to develop uniform standards for the technical evaluation of environmental costs and to improve the transparency of the estimates.

  11. Air quality estimation by computational intelligence methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćirić Ivan T.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this study is to compare different computational intelligence methodologies based on artificial neural networks used for forecasting an air quality parameter - the emission of CO2, in the city of Niš. Firstly, inputs of the CO2 emission estimator are analyzed and their measurement is explained. It is known that the traffic is the single largest emitter of CO2 in Europe. Therefore, a proper treatment of this component of pollution is very important for precise estimation of emission levels. With this in mind, measurements of traffic frequency and CO2 concentration were carried out at critical intersections in the city, as well as the monitoring of a vehicle direction at the crossroad. Finally, based on experimental data, different soft computing estimators were developed, such as feed forward neural network, recurrent neural network, and hybrid neuro-fuzzy estimator of CO2 emission levels. Test data for some characteristic cases presented at the end of the paper shows good agreement of developed estimator outputs with experimental data. Presented results are a true indicator of the implemented method usability. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III42008-2/2011: Evaluation of Energy Performances and br. TR35016/2011: Indoor Environment Quality of Educational Buildings in Serbia with Impact to Health and Research of MHD Flows around the Bodies, in the Tip Clearances and Channels and Application in the MHD Pumps Development

  12. Software Development Cost Estimation Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jairus M.; Menzies, Tim

    2006-01-01

    Identify simple fully validated cost models that provide estimation uncertainty with cost estimate. Based on COCOMO variable set. Use machine learning techniques to determine: a) Minimum number of cost drivers required for NASA domain based cost models; b) Minimum number of data records required and c) Estimation Uncertainty. Build a repository of software cost estimation information. Coordinating tool development and data collection with: a) Tasks funded by PA&E Cost Analysis; b) IV&V Effort Estimation Task and c) NASA SEPG activities.

  13. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  14. A RELATIVE STUDY ON COST ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES

    OpenAIRE

    K. Jayapratha; M. Muthamizharasan

    2017-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation is one of the most important part in software development. It involves in estimating the effort and cost in terms of money to complete the software development. Software Cost Estimation is very important when lines of code for the particular project exceeds certain limit, also when the software deployed with too many bugs and uncovered requirements the project will go incomplete. Software cost estimation of a project plays a vital role in acceptance or rejection of it...

  15. Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with other Recent Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report compares hydrogen station cost estimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other cost estimates. These other cost estimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

  16. Cost Assessment Methodology and Economic Viability of Tidal Energy Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Segura

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The exploitation of technologies with which to harness the energy from ocean currents will have considerable possibilities in the future thanks to their enormous potential for electricity production and their high predictability. In this respect, the development of methodologies for the economic viability of these technologies is fundamental to the attainment of a consistent quantification of their costs and the discovery of their economic viability, while simultaneously attracting investment in these technologies. This paper presents a methodology with which to determine the economic viability of tidal energy projects, which includes a technical study of the life-cycle costs into which the development of a tidal farm can be decomposed: concept and definition, design and development, manufacturing, installation, operation and maintenance and dismantling. These cost structures are additionally subdivided by considering their sub-costs and bearing in mind the main components of the tidal farm: the nacelle, the supporting tidal energy converter structure and the export power system. Furthermore, a technical study is developed in order to obtain an estimation of the annual energy produced (and, consequently, the incomes generated if the electric tariff is known by considering its principal attributes: the characteristics of the current, the ability of the device to capture energy and its ability to convert and export the energy. The methodology has been applied (together with a sensibility analysis to the particular case of a farm composed of first generation tidal energy converters in one of the Channel Island Races, the Alderney Race, in the U.K., and the results have been attained by means of the computation of engineering indexes, such as the net present value, the internal rate of return, the discounted payback period and the levelized cost of energy, which indicate that the proposed project is economically viable for all the case studies.

  17. Survey of Transmission Cost Allocation Methodologies for Regional Transmission Organizations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fink, S.; Porter, K.; Mudd, C.; Rogers, J.

    2011-02-01

    The report presents transmission cost allocation methodologies for reliability transmission projects, generation interconnection, and economic transmission projects for all Regional Transmission Organizations.

  18. Cost Overruns and Cost Estimation in the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emhjellen, Magne; Emhjellen, Kjetil; Osmundsen, Petter

    2001-10-01

    Recently, a Norwegian government report on the cost overruns of projects in the North Sea was presented (NOU 1999:11). It concluded that there was a 25% increase in development costs from project sanction (POD, Plan for Operation and Development) to last CCE (Capital Cost Estimate) for the 11 oil field projects investigated. Many reasons like unclear project assumptions in early phase, optimistic interpolation of previous project assumptions, too optimistic estimates, and underestimation of uncertainty were given as reasons for overruns. In this article we highlight the possibility that the cost overruns are not necessarily all due to the reasons given, but also to an error in the estimation and reporting of the capital expenditure cost (CAPEX). Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. The oil companies report, and are required to do so by government authorities, the estimated 50/50 (median) cost estimate instead of the estimated expected value cost estimate. We demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX estimate for the 11 projects when the cost uncertainty distributions are asymmetric, may explain at least part of the ''overruns''. Hence, we advocate changing the practice of using 50/50 cost estimates instead of expected value cost estimates for project management and decision purposes. (author)

  19. A better approach to cost estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Russ

    2013-03-01

    Using ratios of costs to charges (RCCs) to estimate costs can cause hospitals to significantly over- or under-invest in service lines. A focus on improving cost estimation in cost centers where physicians have significant control over operating expenses, such as drugs or implants, can strengthen decision making and strategic planning. Connecting patient file information to purchasing data can lead to more accurate reflections of actual costs and help hospitals gain better visibility across service lines.

  20. Estimating the Cost of Heterogeneous Solutions

    OpenAIRE

    Poort, Eltjo; Vliet, Eric van der

    2014-01-01

    Existing estimation methods have severe limitations when it comes to estimating the delivery cost of heterogeneous IT-based solutions. In this experience report we present Solution-Based Estimation, a new approach that explicitly links a solution's architecture to its delivery cost model.

  1. Methodological Considerations in Social Cost Studies of Addictive Substances: A Systematic Literature Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhaeghe, Nick; Lievens, Delfine; Annemans, Lieven; Vander Laenen, Freya; Putman, Koen

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol, tobacco, illicit drugs, and psychoactive pharmaceuticals' use is associated with a higher likelihood of developing several diseases and injuries and, as a consequence, considerable health-care expenditures. There is yet a lack of consistent methodologies to estimate the economic impact of addictive substances to society. The aim was to assess the methodological approaches applied in social cost studies estimating the economic impact of alcohol, tobacco, illicit drugs, and psychoactive pharmaceuticals. A systematic literature review through the electronic databases, Medline (PubMed) and Web of Science, was performed. Studies in English published from 1997 examining the social costs of the addictive substances alcohol, tobacco, illicit drugs, and psychoactive pharmaceuticals were eligible for inclusion. Twelve social cost studies met the inclusion criteria. In all studies, the direct and indirect costs were measured, but the intangible costs were seldom taken into account. A wide variety in cost items included across studies was observed. Sensitivity analyses to address the uncertainty around certain cost estimates were conducted in eight studies considered in the review. Differences in cost items included in cost-of-illness studies limit the comparison across studies. It is clear that it is difficult to deal with all consequences of substance use in cost-of-illness studies. Future social cost studies should be based on sound methodological principles in order to result in more reliable cost estimates of the economic burden of substance use.

  2. Simplified Life-Cycle Cost Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.; Lorden, G.; Eisenberger, I.

    1983-01-01

    Simple method for life-cycle cost (LCC) estimation avoids pitfalls inherent in formulations requiring separate estimates of inflation and interest rates. Method depends for validity observation that interest and inflation rates closely track each other.

  3. Implementing the cost-optimal methodology in EU countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Atanasiu, Bogdan; Kouloumpi, Ilektra; Thomsen, Kirsten Engelund

    This study presents three cost-optimal calculations. The overall aim is to provide a deeper analysis and to provide additional guidance on how to properly implement the cost-optimality methodology in Member States. Without proper guidance and lessons from exemplary case studies using realistic...... input data (reflecting the likely future development), there is a risk that the cost-optimal methodology may be implemented at sub-optimal levels. This could lead to a misalignment between the defined cost-optimal levels and the long-term goals, leaving a significant energy saving potential unexploited....... Therefore, this study provides more evidence on the implementation of the cost-optimal methodology and highlights the implications of choosing different values for key factors (e.g. discount rates, simulation variants/packages, costs, energy prices) at national levels. The study demonstrates how existing...

  4. Estimating Software-Development Costs With Greater Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Dan; Hihn, Jairus; Lum, Karen

    2008-01-01

    COCOMOST is a computer program for use in estimating software development costs. The goal in the development of COCOMOST was to increase estimation accuracy in three ways: (1) develop a set of sensitivity software tools that return not only estimates of costs but also the estimation error; (2) using the sensitivity software tools, precisely define the quantities of data needed to adequately tune cost estimation models; and (3) build a repository of software-cost-estimation information that NASA managers can retrieve to improve the estimates of costs of developing software for their project. COCOMOST implements a methodology, called '2cee', in which a unique combination of well-known pre-existing data-mining and software-development- effort-estimation techniques are used to increase the accuracy of estimates. COCOMOST utilizes multiple models to analyze historical data pertaining to software-development projects and performs an exhaustive data-mining search over the space of model parameters to improve the performances of effort-estimation models. Thus, it is possible to both calibrate and generate estimates at the same time. COCOMOST is written in the C language for execution in the UNIX operating system.

  5. Data Service Provider Cost Estimation Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, Kathy; Hunolt, Greg; Booth, Arthur L.; Banks, Mel

    2011-01-01

    The Data Service Provider Cost Estimation Tool (CET) and Comparables Database (CDB) package provides to NASA s Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) the ability to estimate the full range of year-by-year lifecycle cost estimates for the implementation and operation of data service providers required by ESE to support its science and applications programs. The CET can make estimates dealing with staffing costs, supplies, facility costs, network services, hardware and maintenance, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software licenses, software development and sustaining engineering, and the changes in costs that result from changes in workload. Data Service Providers may be stand-alone or embedded in flight projects, field campaigns, research or applications projects, or other activities. The CET and CDB package employs a cost-estimation-by-analogy approach. It is based on a new, general data service provider reference model that provides a framework for construction of a database by describing existing data service providers that are analogs (or comparables) to planned, new ESE data service providers. The CET implements the staff effort and cost estimation algorithms that access the CDB and generates the lifecycle cost estimate for a new data services provider. This data creates a common basis for an ESE proposal evaluator for considering projected data service provider costs.

  6. Failing to Estimate the Costs of Offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus

    2016-01-01

    This article investigates cost estimation errors in the context of offshoring. It is argued that an imprecise estimation of the costs related to implementing a firm activity in a foreign location has a negative impact on the process performance of that activity. Performance is deterred...

  7. A Cost Estimation Tool for Charter Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Cheryl D.; Keller, Eric

    2009-01-01

    To align their financing strategies and fundraising efforts with their fiscal needs, charter school leaders need to know how much funding they need and what that funding will support. This cost estimation tool offers a simple set of worksheets to help start-up charter school operators identify and estimate the range of costs and timing of…

  8. Demystifying the Cost Estimation Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obi, Samuel C.

    2010-01-01

    In manufacturing today, nothing is more important than giving a customer a clear and straight-forward accounting of what their money has purchased. Many potentially promising return business orders are lost because of unclear, ambiguous, or improper billing. One of the best ways of resolving cost bargaining conflicts is by providing a…

  9. Cost-estimating for commercial digital printing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keif, Malcolm G.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to document current cost-estimating practices used in commercial digital printing. A research study was conducted to determine the use of cost-estimating in commercial digital printing companies. This study answers the questions: 1) What methods are currently being used to estimate digital printing? 2) What is the relationship between estimating and pricing digital printing? 3) To what extent, if at all, do digital printers use full-absorption, all-inclusive hourly rates for estimating? Three different digital printing models were identified: 1) Traditional print providers, who supplement their offset presswork with digital printing for short-run color and versioned commercial print; 2) "Low-touch" print providers, who leverage the power of the Internet to streamline business transactions with digital storefronts; 3) Marketing solutions providers, who see printing less as a discrete manufacturing process and more as a component of a complete marketing campaign. Each model approaches estimating differently. Understanding and predicting costs can be extremely beneficial. Establishing a reliable system to estimate those costs can be somewhat challenging though. Unquestionably, cost-estimating digital printing will increase in relevance in the years ahead, as margins tighten and cost knowledge becomes increasingly more critical.

  10. CONCEPTUAL DESIGNS FOR A NEW HIGHWAY VEHICLE EMISSIONS ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report discusses six conceptual designs for a new highway vehicle emissions estimation methodology and summarizes the recommendations of each design for improving the emissions and activity factors in the emissions estimation process. he complete design reports are included a...

  11. Joint Intelligence Analysis Complex: DOD Needs to Fully Incorporate Best Practices into Future Cost Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Croughton to locating it at Lajes Field and developed a business case analysis, which was sent to the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee...both the data sources and the methodology used for the JIAC cost estimate in an Excel spreadsheet model and a parametric cost engineering estimate...such as office buildings. In the cost calculation spreadsheet for the JIAC cost estimate, the cost estimators’ judgements regarding which type of

  12. Photovoltaic-system costing-methodology development. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-07-01

    Presented are the results of a study to expand the use of standardized costing methodologies in the National Photovoltaics Program. The costing standards, which include SAMIS for manufacturing costs and M and D for marketing and distribution costs, have been applied to concentrator collectors and power-conditioning units. The M and D model was also computerized. Finally, a uniform construction cost-accounting structure was developed for use in photovoltaic test and application projects. The appendices contain example cases which demonstrate the use of the models.

  13. Capital project cost estimation methodologies. The colombian case study Aproximación a las metodologías de estimación del costo de capital en los proyectos de inversión. El caso colombiano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Díez B

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A literature review using databases of the main Colombian universities was made in order to define the theoretical form of capital cost estimation in Colombia. Given a review of global popular methodologies, this article presents an approach to emergent countries, especially Colombia. Up to now, there has not been a general rule or best practice for such estimation; on the contrary, diverse difficulties to be solved exist in an environment where the effects are global and different local situations arise. Academic and pragmatic authors find diverse postures, which makes recommendable to investors or shareholders to permanently evaluate the results. Currently, available models as Capital Asset Pricing are still used and adjust various proposals to its original structure.Con el objetivo de definir la forma de estimar teóricamente el costo de capital enColombia, se llevó a cabo una revisión de la literatura correspondiente en las bases dedatos electrónicas de las principales universidades del país. A partir de una revisiónde las prácticas metodológicas más comunes en el ámbito mundial, se presenta unaaproximación a la situación de los países emergentes y específicamente a la nuestra.Hasta ahora no existe una regla general ni una mejor práctica para dicho cálculo; aún haydificultades por resolver, en un medio donde cada vez son más globales los efectos y haygran diversidad de situaciones locales. Entre los académicos y prácticos encontramosdiversas posturas, razón por la cual es recomendable que los inversionistas o accionistashagan una evaluación permanente de sus resultados. Hoy por hoy se siguen utilizandolos modelos disponibles, entre los cuales el principal es el CAPM (Capital Asset PricingModel, con diversas propuestas de ajuste a su planteamiento tradicional.

  14. Estimating the cost of a smoking employee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Micah; Crane, Rob; Seiber, Eric; Munur, Mehmet

    2014-09-01

    We attempted to estimate the excess annual costs that a US private employer may attribute to employing an individual who smokes tobacco as compared to a non-smoking employee. Reviewing and synthesising previous literature estimating certain discrete costs associated with smoking employees, we developed a cost estimation approach that approximates the total of such costs for U.S. employers. We examined absenteeism, presenteesim, smoking breaks, healthcare costs and pension benefits for smokers. Our best estimate of the annual excess cost to employ a smoker is $5816. This estimate should be taken as a general indicator of the extent of excess costs, not as a predictive point value. Employees who smoke impose significant excess costs on private employers. The results of this study may help inform employer decisions about tobacco-related policies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  15. Statistical methods of estimating mining costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K.R.

    2011-01-01

    Until it was defunded in 1995, the U.S. Bureau of Mines maintained a Cost Estimating System (CES) for prefeasibility-type economic evaluations of mineral deposits and estimating costs at producing and non-producing mines. This system had a significant role in mineral resource assessments to estimate costs of developing and operating known mineral deposits and predicted undiscovered deposits. For legal reasons, the U.S. Geological Survey cannot update and maintain CES. Instead, statistical tools are under development to estimate mining costs from basic properties of mineral deposits such as tonnage, grade, mineralogy, depth, strip ratio, distance from infrastructure, rock strength, and work index. The first step was to reestimate "Taylor's Rule" which relates operating rate to available ore tonnage. The second step was to estimate statistical models of capital and operating costs for open pit porphyry copper mines with flotation concentrators. For a sample of 27 proposed porphyry copper projects, capital costs can be estimated from three variables: mineral processing rate, strip ratio, and distance from nearest railroad before mine construction began. Of all the variables tested, operating costs were found to be significantly correlated only with strip ratio.

  16. Estimated Costs of Sporadic Gastrointestinal Illness ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    BACKGROUND: The ·burden of illness can be described by addressing both incidence and illness severity attributable to water recreation. Monetized as cost. attributable disease burden estimates can be useful for environmental management decisions. OBJECTIVES: We characterize the disease burden attributable to water recreation using data from two cohort studies using a cost of illness (COI) approach and estimate the largest drivers of the disease burden of water recreation. METHODS: Data from the NEEAR study, which evaluated swimming and wading in marine and freshwater beaches in six U.S. states, and CHEERS, which evaluated illness after incidental-contact recreation (boating, canoeing, fishing, kayaking, and rowing) on waterways in the Chicago area, were used to estimate the cost per case of gastrointestinal illness and costs attributable to water recreation. Data on health care and medication utilization and missed days of work or leisure were collected and combined with cost data to construct measures of COI. RESULTS: Depending on different assumptions, the cost of gastrointestinal symptoms attributable to water recreation are estimated to be $1,220 for incidental-contact recreation (range $338-$1,681) and $1,676 for swimming/wading (range $425-2,743) per 1,000 recreators. Lost productivity is a major driver of the estimated COI, accounting for up to 90% of total costs. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates suggest gastrointestinal illness attributed to surface water rec

  17. Structural Estimation of Stock Market Participation Costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    2013-01-01

    education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor...

  18. COST ESTIMATING EQUATIONS FOR BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper describes the development of an interactive internet-based cost-estimating tool for commonly used urban storm runoff best management practices (BMP), including: retention and detention ponds, grassed swales, and constructed wetlands. The paper presents the cost data, c...

  19. NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

    2015-01-01

    The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

  20. A Practical Methodology for Disaggregating the Drivers of Drug Costs Using Administrative Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lungu, Elena R; Manti, Orlando J; Levine, Mitchell A H; Clark, Douglas A; Potashnik, Tanya M; McKinley, Carol I

    2017-09-01

    Prescription drug expenditures represent a significant component of health care costs in Canada, with estimates of $28.8 billion spent in 2014. Identifying the major cost drivers and the effect they have on prescription drug expenditures allows policy makers and researchers to interpret current cost pressures and anticipate future expenditure levels. To identify the major drivers of prescription drug costs and to develop a methodology to disaggregate the impact of each of the individual drivers. The methodology proposed in this study uses the Laspeyres approach for cost decomposition. This approach isolates the effect of the change in a specific factor (e.g., price) by holding the other factor(s) (e.g., quantity) constant at the base-period value. The Laspeyres approach is expanded to a multi-factorial framework to isolate and quantify several factors that drive prescription drug cost. Three broad categories of effects are considered: volume, price and drug-mix effects. For each category, important sub-effects are quantified. This study presents a new and comprehensive methodology for decomposing the change in prescription drug costs over time including step-by-step demonstrations of how the formulas were derived. This methodology has practical applications for health policy decision makers and can aid researchers in conducting cost driver analyses. The methodology can be adjusted depending on the purpose and analytical depth of the research and data availability.

  1. Estimating The Cost Of Developing Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, Robert C.

    1991-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation Model program, SOFTCOST, developed to provide consistent automated resource-and-schedule mathematical model more formalized than guesswork model. Combines several software-cost models found in open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms compensating for nearly 50 implementation factors relative to size of task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment, and difficulty of task. Produces mean and variance estimates of software size, implementation productivity, recommended staff level, probable duration, amount of computer resources required, and amount and cost of software documentation. Written in Microsoft BASIC.

  2. Automated Estimation Of Software-Development Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, George B.; Reini, William

    1993-01-01

    COSTMODL is automated software development-estimation tool. Yields significant reduction in risk of cost overruns and failed projects. Accepts description of software product developed and computes estimates of effort required to produce it, calendar schedule required, and distribution of effort and staffing as function of defined set of development life-cycle phases. Written for IBM PC(R)-compatible computers.

  3. Satellite servicing mission preliminary cost estimation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-01-01

    The cost model presented is a preliminary methodology for determining a rough order-of-magnitude cost for implementing a satellite servicing mission. Mission implementation, in this context, encompassess all activities associated with mission design and planning, including both flight and ground crew training and systems integration (payload processing) of servicing hardward with the Shuttle. A basic assumption made in developing this cost model is that a generic set of servicing hardware was developed and flight tested, is inventoried, and is maintained by NASA. This implies that all hardware physical and functional interfaces are well known and therefore recurring CITE testing is not required. The development of the cost model algorithms and examples of their use are discussed.

  4. Cost analysis and estimating tools and techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Nussbaum, Daniel

    1990-01-01

    Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat­ ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap­ proaches to estimating costs are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug­ mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective­ ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli­ cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES),...

  5. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  6. Economic costs of power interruptions: a consistent model and methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghajar, Raymond F. [School of Engineering and Architecture Lebanese American University P.O. Box 36, Byblos (Lebanon); Billinton, Roy [Power Systems Research Group University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon, Sask., S7N 5A9 (Canada)

    2006-01-15

    One of the most basic requirements in cost/benefit assessments of generation and transmission systems are the costs incurred by customers due to power interruptions. This paper provides a consistent set of cost of interruption data that can be used to assess the reliability worth of a power system. In addition to this basic data, methodologies for calculating the customer damage functions and the interrupted energy assessment rates for individual load points in the system and for the entire service area are also presented. The proposed model and methodology are illustrated by application to the IEEE-reliability test system (IEEE-RTS) [A Report Prepared by the Reliability Test System Task Force of the Application of Probability Methods Subcommittee, IEEE Reliability Test System, IEEE Trans. on PAS, Vol. PAS-98, No.6, pp. 2047-2054, November/December 1979. [1

  7. Support to LANL: Cost estimation. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-10-04

    This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for Cost Estimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing cost estimates for DOE planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors.

  8. IVF cycle cost estimation using Activity Based Costing and Monte Carlo simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassettari, Lucia; Mosca, Marco; Mosca, Roberto; Rolando, Fabio; Costa, Mauro; Pisaturo, Valerio

    2016-03-01

    The Authors present a new methodological approach in stochastic regime to determine the actual costs of an healthcare process. The paper specifically shows the application of the methodology for the determination of the cost of an Assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment in Italy. The reason of this research comes from the fact that deterministic regime is inadequate to implement an accurate estimate of the cost of this particular treatment. In fact the durations of the different activities involved are unfixed and described by means of frequency distributions. Hence the need to determine in addition to the mean value of the cost, the interval within which it is intended to vary with a known confidence level. Consequently the cost obtained for each type of cycle investigated (in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer with or without intracytoplasmic sperm injection), shows tolerance intervals around the mean value sufficiently restricted as to make the data obtained statistically robust and therefore usable also as reference for any benchmark with other Countries. It should be noted that under a methodological point of view the approach was rigorous. In fact it was used both the technique of Activity Based Costing for determining the cost of individual activities of the process both the Monte Carlo simulation, with control of experimental error, for the construction of the tolerance intervals on the final result.

  9. Deep space network software cost estimation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, R. C.

    1981-01-01

    A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for Jet PRopulsion Laboratory (JPL) Deep Space Network (DSN) Data System implementation tasks is described. The resource estimation mdel modifies and combines a number of existing models. The model calibrates the task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit JPL software life-cycle statistics.

  10. REVIEW OF METHODOLOGIES FOR COSTS CALCULATING OF RUMINANTS IN SLOVAKIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana KRUPOVÁ

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to synthesise and analyse the methodologies and the biological aspects of the costs calculation in ruminants in Slovakia. According to literature, the account classification of cost items is most often considered for construction of costing formula. The costs are mostly divided into fixed (costs independent from volume of herd’s production and variable ones (costs connected with improvement of breeding conditions. Cost for feeds and beddings, labour costs, other direct costs and depreciations were found as the most important cost items in ruminants. It can be assumed that including the depreciations into costs of the basic herd takes into consideration the real costs simultaneously invested into raising of young animals in the given period. Costs are calculated for the unit of the main and by-products and their classification is influenced mainly by the type of livestock and production system. In dairy cows is usually milk defined as the main product, and by- products are live born calf and manure. The base calculation unit is kilogram of milk (basic herd of cows and kilogram of gain and kilogram of live weight (young breeding cattle. In suckler cows is a live-born calf the main product and manure is the by-product. The costs are mostly calculated per suckler cow, live-born calf and per kilogram of live weight of weaned calf. Similar division of products into main and by-products is also in cost calculation for sheep categories. The difference is that clotted cheese is also considered as the main product of basic herd in dairy sheep and greasy wool as the by-products in all categories. Definition of the base calculation units in sheep categories followed the mentioned classification. The value of a by-product in cattle and sheep is usually set according to its quantity and intra- plant price of the by-product. In the calculation of the costs for sheep and cattle the “structural ewe” and “structural cow

  11. Cost estimate of initial SSC experimental equipment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1986-06-01

    The cost of the initial detector complement at recently constructed colliding beam facilities (or at those under construction) has been a significant fraction of the cost of the accelerator complex. Because of the complexity of large modern-day detectors, the time-scale for their design and construction is comparable to the time-scale needed for accelerator design and construction. For these reasons it is appropriate to estimate the cost of the anticipated detector complement in parallel with the cost estimates of the collider itself. The fundamental difficulty with this procedure is that, whereas a firm conceptual design of the collider does exist, comparable information is unavailable for the detectors. Traditionally, these have been built by the high energy physics user community according to their perception of the key scientific problems that need to be addressed. The role of the accelerator laboratory in that process has involved technical and managerial coordination and the allocation of running time and local facilities among the proposed experiments. It seems proper that the basic spirit of experimentation reflecting the scientific judgment of the community should be preserved at the SSC. Furthermore, the formal process of initiation of detector proposals can only start once the SSC has been approved as a construction project and a formal laboratory administration put in place. Thus an ad hoc mechanism had to be created to estimate the range of potential detector needs, potential detector costs, and associated computing equipment.

  12. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles unique cost estimating requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, P.; Apgar, H.; Stukes, S.; Sterk, S.

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), also referred to as drones, are aerial platforms that fly without a human pilot onboard. UAVs are controlled autonomously by a computer in the vehicle or under the remote control of a pilot stationed at a fixed ground location. There are a wide variety of drone shapes, sizes, configurations, complexities, and characteristics. Use of these devices by the Department of Defense (DoD), NASA, civil and commercial organizations continues to grow. UAVs are commonly used for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR). They are also use for combat operations, and civil applications, such as firefighting, non-military security work, surveillance of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, power lines and country borders). UAVs are often preferred for missions that require sustained persistence (over 4 hours in duration), or are “ too dangerous, dull or dirty” for manned aircraft. Moreover, they can offer significant acquisition and operations cost savings over traditional manned aircraft. Because of these unique characteristics and missions, UAV estimates require some unique estimating methods. This paper describes a framework for estimating UAV systems total ownership cost including hardware components, software design, and operations. The challenge of collecting data, testing the sensitivities of cost drivers, and creating cost estimating relationships (CERs) for each key work breakdown structure (WBS) element is discussed. The autonomous operation of UAVs is especially challenging from a software perspective.

  13. PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATING PERMANENT TOTAL ENCLOSURE COSTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The paper discusses a procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure (PTE) costs. (NOTE: Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use PTEs, enclosures that mee...

  14. Estimating the cost of production stoppage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1979-01-01

    Estimation model considers learning curve quantities, and time of break to forecast losses due to break in production schedule. Major parameters capable of predicting costs are number of units made prior to production sequence, length of production break, and slope of learning curve produced prior to break.

  15. Hydrogen from coal cost estimation guidebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billings, R. E.

    1981-01-01

    In an effort to establish baseline information whereby specific projects can be evaluated, a current set of parameters which are typical of coal gasification applications was developed. Using these parameters a computer model allows researchers to interrelate cost components in a sensitivity analysis. The results make possible an approximate estimation of hydrogen energy economics from coal, under a variety of circumstances.

  16. Systematic review of guidelines in estimating social costs on drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberto Vella, Vincenzo; García-Altes, Anna; Segura García, Lidia; Ibáñez Martínez, Nuria; Colom Farran, Joan

    2017-12-16

    To systematically review guidance documents for the estimation of the social cost of illegal drugs, and to define standards for this estimation. A systematic literature search was conducted between April and May 2015 and updated in November 2015. Pubmed, Scopus, and Google Scholar were searched. Studies were included only if they provided indications of analytical methods for calculating the social cost of illegal drugs consumption. A total of 21 papers were selected for a final review. Four main areas of discussion were identified: a) alternative theories for the framework design; b) basic concepts definition; c) theoretical issues in the application of the framework and; d) definition of the cost matrix and its elements. The review exercise enabled the definition of two analytical approaches, which are proposed as references for estimation in the field. although social cost is a well-established method in the literature, there is a lack of agreement on the most appropriate approaches in the area of estimation of the social cost of illegal drugs consumption. Moreover, the two analytical approaches proposed are aimed at promoting more research focused at sophisticating the methodology in the field. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  17. [Activity-based costing methodology to manage resources in intensive care units].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvear V, Sandra; Canteros G, Jorge; Jara M, Juan; Rodríguez C, Patricia

    2013-11-01

    An accurate estimation of resources use by individual patients is crucial in hospital management. To measure financial costs of health care actions in intensive care units of two public regional hospitals in Chile. Prospective follow up of 716 patients admitted to two intensive care units during 2011. The financial costs of health care activities was calculated using the Activity-Based Costing methodology. The main activities recorded were procedures and treatments, monitoring, response to patient needs, patient maintenance and coordination. Activity-Based Costs, including human resources and assorted indirect costs correspond to 81 to 88% of costs per disease in one hospital and 69 to 80% in the other. The costs associated to procedures and treatments are the most significant and are approximately $100,000 (Chilean pesos) per day of hospitalization. The second most significant cost corresponds to coordination activities, which fluctuates between $86,000 and 122,000 (Chilean pesos). There are significant differences in resources use between the two hospitals studied. Therefore cost estimation methodologies should be incorporated in the management of these clinical services.

  18. Cost analysis in health centers using 'Step Down' methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matejić S.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Health care reform aims to improve Health System performance by achievement of one of the four objectives: reducing costs by increasing the efficiency of health care provision. Performance improvement implies acceptance of innovations in all Health care activities including health care financial management. Successful implementation of health care financing reform requires previous costs and activities analysis in health institutions. In the work we performed comparative analysis of the costs of 27 health institutions by applying innovative system for health care services costs analysis and control. Initialy spreadsheet system was made, by using internationaly recognised 'Step Down' methodology, for cost control and analisys in the hospitals and was adapted for Primary health care institutions. Results achieved: The dominant cost for employees salaries, on average around 80%, does not depend on the size of Primary health institution (Dom zdravlja; Significant differences in the percentage values of the cost of medicines, medical supplies, diagnostic services; There is an obvious difference percentage values of technical maintenance costs as a result of uneven percentage of the number of non-medical employees, differences in infrastructure organization, the difference in the condition and type of equipment, the difference in the type of space heating and type of fuel for heating, patients transportation obligations especialy of home treatment services and polyvalent patronage. There is a big difference in average cost per outpatient examination, as a consequence of uneven number of services performed, especialy in the dentistry services. There is a significant difference in the number of preventive health examinations performed which has a direct impact on the cost of these inspections. The main conclusion of the analysis done indicates that in the actual situation of disparities, in terms of costs, can joperdize implementation of Primary health

  19. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  20. Software sizing, cost estimation and scheduling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheadle, William G.

    1988-01-01

    The Technology Implementation and Support Section at Martin Marietta Astronautics Group Denver is tasked with software development analysis, data collection, software productivity improvement and developing and applying various computerized software tools and models. The computerized tools are parametric models that reflect actuals taken from the large data base of completed software development projects. Martin Marietta's data base consists of over 300 completed projects and hundreds of cost estimating relationships (CERs) that are used in sizing, costing, scheduling and productivity improvement equations, studies, models and computerized tools.

  1. Cost estimate for a proposed GDF Suez LNG testing program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanchat, Thomas K.; Brady, Patrick Dennis; Jernigan, Dann A.; Luketa, Anay Josephine; Nissen, Mark R.; Lopez, Carlos; Vermillion, Nancy; Hightower, Marion Michael

    2014-02-01

    At the request of GDF Suez, a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate was prepared for the design, construction, testing, and data analysis for an experimental series of large-scale (Liquefied Natural Gas) LNG spills on land and water that would result in the largest pool fires and vapor dispersion events ever conducted. Due to the expected cost of this large, multi-year program, the authors utilized Sandia's structured cost estimating methodology. This methodology insures that the efforts identified can be performed for the cost proposed at a plus or minus 30 percent confidence. The scale of the LNG spill, fire, and vapor dispersion tests proposed by GDF could produce hazard distances and testing safety issues that need to be fully explored. Based on our evaluations, Sandia can utilize much of our existing fire testing infrastructure for the large fire tests and some small dispersion tests (with some modifications) in Albuquerque, but we propose to develop a new dispersion testing site at our remote test area in Nevada because of the large hazard distances. While this might impact some testing logistics, the safety aspects warrant this approach. In addition, we have included a proposal to study cryogenic liquid spills on water and subsequent vaporization in the presence of waves. Sandia is working with DOE on applications that provide infrastructure pertinent to wave production. We present an approach to conduct repeatable wave/spill interaction testing that could utilize such infrastructure.

  2. Estimating Maintenance Cost for Web Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion IVAN

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The current paper tackles the issue of determining a method for estimating maintenance costs for web applications. The current state of research in the field of web application maintenance is summarized and leading theories and results are highlighted. The cost of web maintenance is determined by the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks. Web maintenance tasks are categorized into content maintenance and technical maintenance. Research is centered on analyzing technical maintenance tasks. The research hypothesis is formulated on the assumption that the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks can be assessed based on the web application’s user interaction level, complexity and content update effort. Data regarding the costs of maintenance tasks is collected from 24 maintenance projects implemented by a web development company that tackles a wide area of web applications. Homogeneity and diversity of collected data is submitted for debate by presenting a sample of the data and depicting the overall size and comprehensive nature of the entire dataset. A set of metrics dedicated to estimating maintenance costs in web applications is defined based on conclusions formulated by analyzing the collected data and the theories and practices dominating the current state of research. Metrics are validated with regards to the initial research hypothesis. Research hypothesis are validated and conclusions are formulated on the topic of estimating the maintenance cost of web applications. The limits of the research process which represented the basis for the current paper are enunciated. Future research topics are submitted for debate.

  3. Formation of new methodological approaches to determining the cost of equipment for capital construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didkovskaya Olga

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents author’s ideas on the transformation of methodological approaches to determining the cost of technological equipment associated with capital construction objects. Diagnostics showed that the estimated norms for the installation of equipment in the current estimate and regulatory database contain hundreds of obsolete items. At the same time monitoring of the equipment market and comparison of its result with the norms show the absence of even more positions necessary for calculating the cost of modern equipment for capital construction projects. The proposed changes in the existing practice of standardizing the costs of installing equipment using obsolete estimates are based on the results of the author’s analysis. The analysis is carried out in the form of continuous diagnostics of existing standards and their comparison with modern market indicators and methods of determining the cost of technological equipment, its installation and commissioning. Authors propose to revise the methodological approaches to determining the estimated cost of industrial equipment, bringing it closer to the real market pricing conditions. The formation of current standards should be made on the basis of analysis and processing of information from manufacturers/suppliers and collective peer reviews, i.e. through analytical, statistical and expert methods.

  4. Aircraft bi-level life cycle cost estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curan, R.

    2015-01-01

    n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost, operating cost and disposal cost is not provided. This may produce biased cost estimates. Moreover, aircraft LCC estimation is largely dependent on the availability of input parameters. It is often a prob...

  5. IDC reengineering Phase 2 & 3 US industry standard cost estimate summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, James M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huelskamp, Robert M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, using a commercial software cost estimation tool calibrated to US industry performance parameters. This is not a cost estimate for Sandia to perform the project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  6. Methodology for Estimating Ingestion Dose for Emergency Response at SRS

    CERN Document Server

    Simpkins, A A

    2002-01-01

    At the Savannah River Site (SRS), emergency response models estimate dose for inhalation and ground shine pathways. A methodology has been developed to incorporate ingestion doses into the emergency response models. The methodology follows a two-phase approach. The first phase estimates site-specific derived response levels (DRLs) which can be compared with predicted ground-level concentrations to determine if intervention is needed to protect the public. This phase uses accepted methods with little deviation from recommended guidance. The second phase uses site-specific data to estimate a 'best estimate' dose to offsite individuals from ingestion of foodstuffs. While this method deviates from recommended guidance, it is technically defensibly and more realistic. As guidance is updated, these methods also will need to be updated.

  7. Documentation Requirements for AFSC Cost Estimates an Estimator’s and Reviewer’s Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    1967-08-01

    shown on Form 216 should be readily derivable by the methodology described on the BDSs and WS-Cs. The Cost Es- timate Confidence Rating (CECR...for the item can be found. The BDSs should be checked to insure that they correlate with WS-Cs and WS-Ds: 21 COMPLIANCE AND CONSISTENCY CHECKS...Continued): The WS-Cs and the BDSs are both concerned with recording the method used to derive the estimate of each item’s cost, and, therefore

  8. A Methodology for Estimating the Income Poverty Line with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper develops a procedure for estimating an income poverty line with application to Sudan. The methodology we propose here is based on the idea of viability embodied in Jorgenson's (1961) model of the development of a backward economy which consists of only one sector, namely, agriculture. Using GDP, we ...

  9. Wastewater Treatment Costs and Outlays in Organic Petrochemicals: Standards Versus Taxes With Methodology Suggestions for Marginal Cost Pricing and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Russell G.; Singleton, F. D., Jr.

    1986-04-01

    With the methodology recommended by Baumol and Oates, comparable estimates of wastewater treatment costs and industry outlays are developed for effluent standard and effluent tax instruments for pollution abatement in five hypothetical organic petrochemicals (olefins) plants. The computational method uses a nonlinear simulation model for wastewater treatment to estimate the system state inputs for linear programming cost estimation, following a practice developed in a National Science Foundation (Research Applied to National Needs) study at the University of Houston and used to estimate Houston Ship Channel pollution abatement costs for the National Commission on Water Quality. Focusing on best practical and best available technology standards, with effluent taxes adjusted to give nearly equal pollution discharges, shows that average daily treatment costs (and the confidence intervals for treatment cost) would always be less for the effluent tax than for the effluent standard approach. However, industry's total outlay for these treatment costs, plus effluent taxes, would always be greater for the effluent tax approach than the total treatment costs would be for the effluent standard approach. Thus the practical necessity of showing smaller outlays as a prerequisite for a policy change toward efficiency dictates the need to link the economics at the microlevel with that at the macrolevel. Aggregation of the plants into a programming modeling basis for individual sectors and for the economy would provide a sound basis for effective policy reform, because the opportunity costs of the salient regulatory policies would be captured. Then, the government's policymakers would have the informational insights necessary to legislate more efficient environmental policies in light of the wealth distribution effects.

  10. Cost estimation for advanced wet MOX plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamiya, Masahito; Kojima, Hisao [Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corp., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Works

    1997-12-01

    PNC proposes a design concept of an advanced wet MOX plant based on low-level decontamination reprocessing plant and a simple fuel fabrication method. It significantly changes the boundary condition for design of reprocessing, fuel fabrication and reactor to alter the wet MOX cycle into a convenient form as simple as that of metal fuel cycle. According to the concept, the reprocessing process is substantially simplified by holding the decontamination level low, so that both reprocessing and fabrication processes can be installed in a single facility utilizing common utilities including a liquid waste processing facility. This report summarizes the results of the conceptual design of the plant and cost evaluation. Construction costs were estimated for the current plant constructed by means of the current technology, for the standard plant based on the improved technology of high-level decontamination cycle, and for the advanced plant based on the wet MOX cycle concept. It was concluded then that the construction costs in unit of the cost of the current plant were evaluated to be 0.60 for the standard plant (handling capacity 50 t/y) and 0.66 or 0.50 for the advanced plant (handling capacity 100 t/y or 50 t/y). (H. Baba)

  11. Supplemental report on cost estimates'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1992-04-29

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have completed an analysis of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Fiscal Year (FY) 1993 budget request for its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (ERWM) program. The results were presented to an interagency review group (IAG) of senior-Administration officials for their consideration in the budget process. This analysis included evaluations of the underlying legal requirements and cost estimates on which the ERWM budget request was based. The major conclusions are contained in a separate report entitled, ''Interagency Review of the Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program.'' This Corps supplemental report provides greater detail on the cost analysis.

  12. On Aircraft Systems’ Acquisition Cost Estimation : – A Parametric Approach –

    OpenAIRE

    Niskanen, Jonne

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this master thesis is to increase the precision of the aircraft systems’ acquisition cost estimations required as input to the Saab in-house software employed in concept studies at the company. This is achieved by developing a systematic methodology based on parametric techniques for data collection, normalization and validation, resulting in a mathematical Cost Estimating Relationship (CER) between a technical parameter and the acquisition cost. The accuracy of the CER is evaluate...

  13. Cost and schedule estimation study report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condon, Steve; Regardie, Myrna; Stark, Mike; Waligora, Sharon

    1993-01-01

    This report describes the analysis performed and the findings of a study of the software development cost and schedule estimation models used by the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD), Goddard Space Flight Center. The study analyzes typical FDD projects, focusing primarily on those developed since 1982. The study reconfirms the standard SEL effort estimation model that is based on size adjusted for reuse; however, guidelines for the productivity and growth parameters in the baseline effort model have been updated. The study also produced a schedule prediction model based on empirical data that varies depending on application type. Models for the distribution of effort and schedule by life-cycle phase are also presented. Finally, this report explains how to use these models to plan SEL projects.

  14. A KBE genetic-causal cost modelling methodology for manufacturing cost contingency management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Curran, R.; Gilmour, M.; McAlleean, C.; Kelly, P.

    2009-01-01

    The paper provides validated evidence of a robust methodology for the management of lean manufacturing cost contingency, with a particular focus on contingency regarding recurring work content. A truly concurrent engineering process is established by capturing a range of knowledge from the design,

  15. Statistical Cost Estimation in Higher Education: Some Alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkman, Paul T.; Niwa, Shelley

    Recent developments in econometrics that are relevant to the task of estimating costs in higher education are reviewed. The relative effectiveness of alternative statistical procedures for estimating costs are also tested. Statistical cost estimation involves three basic parts: a model, a data set, and an estimation procedure. Actual data are used…

  16. Estimated generic prices of cancer medicines deemed cost-ineffective in England: a cost estimation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andrew; Redd, Christopher; Gotham, Dzintars; Erbacher, Isabelle; Meldrum, Jonathan; Harada, Ryo

    2017-01-20

    The aim of this study was to estimate lowest possible treatment costs for four novel cancer drugs, hypothesising that generic manufacturing could significantly reduce treatment costs. This research was carried out in a non-clinical research setting using secondary data. There were no human participants in the study. Four drugs were selected for the study: bortezomib, dasatinib, everolimus and gefitinib. These medications were selected according to their clinical importance, novel pharmaceutical actions and the availability of generic price data. Target costs for treatment were to be generated for each indication for each treatment. The primary outcome measure was the target cost according to a production cost calculation algorithm. The secondary outcome measure was the target cost as the lowest available generic price; this was necessary where export data were not available to generate an estimate from our cost calculation algorithm. Other outcomes included patent expiry dates and total eligible treatment populations. Target prices were £411 per cycle for bortezomib, £9 per month for dasatinib, £852 per month for everolimus and £10 per month for gefitinib. Compared with current list prices in England, these target prices would represent reductions of 74-99.6%. Patent expiry dates were bortezomib 2014-22, dasatinib 2020-26, everolimus 2019-25 and gefitinib 2017. The total global eligible treatment population in 1 year is 769 736. Our findings demonstrate that affordable drug treatment costs are possible for novel cancer drugs, suggesting that new therapeutic options can be made available to patients and doctors worldwide. Assessing treatment cost estimations alongside cost-effectiveness evaluations is an important area of future research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  17. Understanding the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in children: methodological choices and seasonal variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newall, Anthony T; Dehollain, Juan Pablo; Creighton, Prudence; Beutels, Philippe; Wood, James G

    2013-08-01

    The universal vaccination of children for influenza has recently been recommended in the UK and is being considered in other developed countries. The aim of this study was to explore the potential costs and benefits of childhood influenza vaccination to gain a better understanding of the key drivers of cost-effectiveness. As our case study we examined the cost-effectiveness of vaccination in Australian schoolchildren using an age-stratified Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered model. The results of this study highlight the critical role that methodological choices play in determining the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination. These choices include decisions about the structure of the model (including/excluding herd immunity) and what costs and benefits to include in the analysis. In scenarios where herd protection was included we estimated that the program was likely to be cost-effective. The study also illustrates the importance of the inherent seasonal variability of influenza, which can produce counter-intuitive results, with low transmission seasons being easier to control by vaccination but resulting in fewer benefits. Universal childhood influenza vaccination is likely to be cost-effective if a substantial herd protection effect can be achieved by the program. However, it is important that decision makers understand the role of seasonal variability and the impact of alternative methodological choices in economic evaluations of influenza vaccination.

  18. 18 CFR 301.5 - Changes in Average System Cost methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... System Cost methodology. 301.5 Section 301.5 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY... SYSTEM COST METHODOLOGY FOR SALES FROM UTILITIES TO BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION UNDER NORTHWEST POWER ACT § 301.5 Changes in Average System Cost methodology. (a) The Administrator, at his or her...

  19. 77 FR 16319 - Amtrak's Petition for Determination of PRIIA Section 209 Cost Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-20

    ... Amtrak's Petition for Determination of PRIIA Section 209 Cost Methodology AGENCY: Surface Transportation Board. ACTION: Adoption of methodology to establish and allocate costs for state-supported Amtrak routes. SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given of the adoption of a methodology to establish and allocate costs for state...

  20. Estimating the cost of healthcare delivery in three hospitals in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusion: Salaries are the major cost component of the three hospitals. Overhead costs constitute an important part of hospital costs and must be noted in efforts to recover costs. Cost structures are different at different types of hospitals. Unit costs at service delivery points can be estimated and projected into the future.

  1. Methodological Framework for Estimating the Correlation Dimension in HRV Signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolea, Juan; Laguna, Pablo; Remartínez, José María; Rovira, Eva; Navarro, Augusto; Bailón, Raquel

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a methodological framework for robust estimation of the correlation dimension in HRV signals. It includes (i) a fast algorithm for on-line computation of correlation sums; (ii) log-log curves fitting to a sigmoidal function for robust maximum slope estimation discarding the estimation according to fitting requirements; (iii) three different approaches for linear region slope estimation based on latter point; and (iv) exponential fitting for robust estimation of saturation level of slope series with increasing embedded dimension to finally obtain the correlation dimension estimate. Each approach for slope estimation leads to a correlation dimension estimate, called D^2, D^2⊥, and D^2max. D^2 and D^2max estimate the theoretical value of correlation dimension for the Lorenz attractor with relative error of 4%, and D^2⊥ with 1%. The three approaches are applied to HRV signals of pregnant women before spinal anesthesia for cesarean delivery in order to identify patients at risk for hypotension. D^2 keeps the 81% of accuracy previously described in the literature while D^2⊥ and D^2max approaches reach 91% of accuracy in the same database. PMID:24592284

  2. Methodological Framework for Estimating the Correlation Dimension in HRV Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Bolea

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodological framework for robust estimation of the correlation dimension in HRV signals. It includes (i a fast algorithm for on-line computation of correlation sums; (ii log-log curves fitting to a sigmoidal function for robust maximum slope estimation discarding the estimation according to fitting requirements; (iii three different approaches for linear region slope estimation based on latter point; and (iv exponential fitting for robust estimation of saturation level of slope series with increasing embedded dimension to finally obtain the correlation dimension estimate. Each approach for slope estimation leads to a correlation dimension estimate, called D^2, D^2⊥, and D^2max. D^2 and D^2max estimate the theoretical value of correlation dimension for the Lorenz attractor with relative error of 4%, and D^2⊥ with 1%. The three approaches are applied to HRV signals of pregnant women before spinal anesthesia for cesarean delivery in order to identify patients at risk for hypotension. D^2 keeps the 81% of accuracy previously described in the literature while D^2⊥ and D^2max approaches reach 91% of accuracy in the same database.

  3. A methodology for segregating rural-urban mortality estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagtolun-an, I G

    1986-01-01

    " This study deals mainly in estimating rural/urban mortality differentials in countries where death registration by place of residence is nonexistent or inadequate. The methodology was applied to Philippine death registration data of 1975 and the result was compared to those estimates obtained by applying Brass, Sullivan and Trussell techniques on the 1978 World Fertility Survey data of children ever born and children still living. Basically, the methodology allocates death registration data to rural and urban areas by applying to each geographic unit several indices of urbanization. This is possible when death registration in developing nations is tabulated by geographic units, such as province, region, state, island, etc. The underlying assumption is that some geographic units are more urbanized than others. The process involves identification of these units and combining them into urban areas. This likewise implies that the remaining areas can be combined as rural." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA) excerpt

  4. Estimated Annual Maintenance Costs for Educational Facilities in Eritrea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vagnby, Bo Hellisen

    Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea.......Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea....

  5. Using Intelligent Techniques in Construction Project Cost Estimation: 10-Year Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelrahman Osman Elfaki

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation is the most important preliminary process in any construction project. Therefore, construction cost estimation has the lion’s share of the research effort in construction management. In this paper, we have analysed and studied proposals for construction cost estimation for the last 10 years. To implement this survey, we have proposed and applied a methodology that consists of two parts. The first part concerns data collection, for which we have chosen special journals as sources for the surveyed proposals. The second part concerns the analysis of the proposals. To analyse each proposal, the following four questions have been set. Which intelligent technique is used? How have data been collected? How are the results validated? And which construction cost estimation factors have been used? From the results of this survey, two main contributions have been produced. The first contribution is the defining of the research gap in this area, which has not been fully covered by previous proposals of construction cost estimation. The second contribution of this survey is the proposal and highlighting of future directions for forthcoming proposals, aimed ultimately at finding the optimal construction cost estimation. Moreover, we consider the second part of our methodology as one of our contributions in this paper. This methodology has been proposed as a standard benchmark for construction cost estimation proposals.

  6. Estimating the Full Cost of Family-Financed Time Inputs to Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Victor

    This paper presents a methodology for estimating the full cost of parental time allocated to child-care activities at home. Building upon the human capital hypothesis, a model is developed in which the cost of an hour diverted from labor market activity is seen as consisting of three components: 1) direct wages foregone; 2) investments in…

  7. ICPP tank farm closure study. Volume 3: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    This volume contains information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the six options described in Volume 1, Section 2: Option 1 -- Total removal clean closure; No subsequent use; Option 2 -- Risk-based clean closure; LLW fill; Option 3 -- Risk-based clean closure; CERCLA fill; Option 4 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; LLW fill; Option 5 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; CERCLA fill; and Option 6 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; Clean fill. This volume is divided into two portions. The first portion contains the cost and planning schedule estimates while the second portion contains life-cycle costs and yearly cash flow information for each option.

  8. Estimation of immunization providers' activities cost, medication cost, and immunization dose errors cost in Iraq.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-lela, Omer Qutaiba B; Bahari, Mohd Baidi; Al-abbassi, Mustafa G; Salih, Muhannad R M; Basher, Amena Y

    2012-06-06

    The immunization status of children is improved by interventions that increase community demand for compulsory and non-compulsory vaccines, one of the most important interventions related to immunization providers. The aim of this study is to evaluate the activities of immunization providers in terms of activities time and cost, to calculate the immunization doses cost, and to determine the immunization dose errors cost. Time-motion and cost analysis study design was used. Five public health clinics in Mosul-Iraq participated in the study. Fifty (50) vaccine doses were required to estimate activities time and cost. Micro-costing method was used; time and cost data were collected for each immunization-related activity performed by the clinic staff. A stopwatch was used to measure the duration of activity interactions between the parents and clinic staff. The immunization service cost was calculated by multiplying the average salary/min by activity time per minute. 528 immunization cards of Iraqi children were scanned to determine the number and the cost of immunization doses errors (extraimmunization doses and invalid doses). The average time for child registration was 6.7 min per each immunization dose, and the physician spent more than 10 min per dose. Nurses needed more than 5 min to complete child vaccination. The total cost of immunization activities was 1.67 US$ per each immunization dose. Measles vaccine (fifth dose) has a lower price (0.42 US$) than all other immunization doses. The cost of a total of 288 invalid doses was 744.55 US$ and the cost of a total of 195 extra immunization doses was 503.85 US$. The time spent on physicians' activities was longer than that spent on registrars' and nurses' activities. Physician total cost was higher than registrar cost and nurse cost. The total immunization cost will increase by about 13.3% owing to dose errors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Estimating the cost of epilepsy in Europe: a review with economic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugliatti, Maura; Beghi, Ettore; Forsgren, Lars; Ekman, Mattias; Sobocki, Patrik

    2007-12-01

    Based on available epidemiologic, health economic, and international population statistics literature, the cost of epilepsy in Europe was estimated. Europe was defined as the 25 European Union member countries, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland. Guidelines for epidemiological studies on epilepsy were used for a case definition. A bottom-up prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach, the societal perspective for including the cost items, and the human capital approach as valuation principle for indirect costs were used. The cost estimates were based on selected studies with common methodology and valuation principles. The estimated prevalence of epilepsy in Europe in 2004 was 4.3-7.8 per 1,000. The estimated total cost of the disease in Europe was euro15.5 billion in 2004, indirect cost being the single most dominant cost category (euro8.6 billion). Direct health care costs were euro2.8 billion, outpatient care comprising the largest part (euro1.3 billion). Direct nonmedical cost was euro4.2 billion. That of antiepileptic drugs was euro400 million. The total cost per case was euro2,000-11,500 and the estimated cost per European inhabitant was euro33. Epilepsy is a relevant socioeconomic burden at individual, family, health services, and societal level in Europe. The greater proportion of such burden is outside the formal health care sector, antiepileptic drugs representing a smaller proportion. Lack of economic data from several European countries and other methodological limitations make this report an initial estimate of the cost of epilepsy in Europe. Prospective incidence cost-of-illness studies from well-defined populations and common methodology are encouraged.

  10. Estimating Demolition Costs for Single Residential Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunlu Liu

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available With the increasing stock of aging structures, buildingdemolition is becoming a challenging research field fromthe perspective of management. As the converse ofconstruction, management of demolition puts forward somenew management themes or adds some new contentseven though the same issues are faced in constructionmanagement. This research aims to develop a quantitativeapproach to estimate the costs of a demolition project. Acost analysis method is presented to systematically breakdown the cost components involved in the demolition ofa structure. Due to the lack of robust research in theoryand systematic summary in practice to date, the economicperformances of demolition will be studied through a casestudy, and the majority of parameters are derived fromactual experiences in practice. The proposed demolition costestimation method is applied to the actual form of buildingelimination (ScenariO 1, and further comparison is carriedout with two other elimination methods, which are the newlydeveloped deconstruction (Scenario 2 and mechanicaldemolition (Scenario 3. Deconstruction is found to be themost profitable in this particular instance, and is closelyfollowed by the actual form.

  11. A generic framework for cost estimation and cost control in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutters-Weustink, Ilanit F.; ten Brinke, E.; Streppel, A.H.; Kals, H.J.J.

    2000-01-01

    Traditionally, cost estimation was performed after the design process, though most opportunities of cost reduction have already passed. Therefore, it is advantageous to be able to estimate the product costs early in the product development cycle. By changing the way cost estimation is dealt with, it

  12. IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Cost Estimate Summary (Leveraged NDC Case).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, James M.; Prescott, Ryan; Dawson, Jericah M.; Huelskamp, Robert M.

    2014-11-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, based on leveraging a fully funded, Sandia executed NDC Modernization project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  13. Cost of diabetic eye, renal and foot complications: a methodological review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schirr-Bonnans, Solène; Costa, Nadège; Derumeaux-Burel, Hélène; Bos, Jérémy; Lepage, Benoît; Garnault, Valérie; Martini, Jacques; Hanaire, Hélène; Turnin, Marie-Christine; Molinier, Laurent

    2017-04-01

    Diabetic retinopathy (DR), diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) represent a public health and economic concern that may be assessed with cost-of-illness (COI) studies. (1) To review COI studies published between 2000 and 2015, about DR, DKD and DFU; (2) to analyse methods used. Disease definition, epidemiological approach, perspective, type of costs, activity data sources, cost valuation, sensitivity analysis, cost discounting and presentation of costs may be described in COI studies. Each reviewed study was assessed with a methodological grid including these nine items. The five following items have been detailed in the reviewed studies: epidemiological approach (59 % of studies described it), perspective (75 %), type of costs (98 %), activity data sources (91 %) and cost valuation (59 %). The disease definition and the presentation of results were detailed in fewer studies (respectively 50 and 46 %). In contrast, sensitivity analysis was only performed in 14 % of studies and cost discounting in 7 %. Considering the studies showing an average cost per patient and per year with a societal perspective, DR cost estimates were US $2297 (range 5-67,486), DKD cost ranged from US $1095 to US $16,384, and DFU cost was US $10,604 (range 1444-85,718). This review reinforces the need to adequately describe the method to facilitate literature comparisons and projections. It also recalls that COI studies represent complementary tools to cost-effectiveness studies to help decision makers in the allocation of economic resources for the management of DR, DKD and DFU.

  14. The economic costs of alcohol abuse: an assessment of current methods and estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heien, D M; Pittman, D J

    1989-11-01

    This article provides an exposition and critical review of the methods and assumptions used by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism to estimate the economic costs of alcohol abuse. Particular attention is paid to the methods used to estimate productivity loss which comprises over half of total abuse costs. This study concludes that these estimates are inaccurate and that they continually overstate actual costs. The main reasons for this overstatement are the attribution of causality to alcohol abuse where none has been shown to exist and improper methodology with regard to productivity impairment measures. In addition to being inaccurate at any point in time, the estimates are not a valid measure of the costs over time due to changing definitions of what constitutes alcohol abuse and lack of correction for inflation. Also, the method used implies cost comparisons with a society with no alcohol abuse. As a result of these considerations the estimates lack policy relevance.

  15. Estimating archiving costs for engineering records

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stutz, R.A.; Lamartine, B.C.

    1997-02-01

    Information technology has completely changed the concept of record keeping for engineering projects -- the advent of digital records was a momentous discovery, as significant as the invention of the printing press. Digital records allowed huge amounts of information to be stored in a very small space and to be examined quickly. However, digital documents are much more vulnerable to the passage of time than printed documents because the media on which they are stored are easily affected by physical phenomena, such as magnetic fields, oxidation, material decay, and by various environmental factors that may erase the information. Even more important, digital information becomes obsolete because, even if future generations may be able to read it, they may not necessarily be able to interpret it. Engineering projects of all sizes are becoming more dependent on digital records. These records are created on computers used in design, estimating, construction management, and construction. The necessity for the accurate and accessible storage of these documents, generated by computer software systems, is increasing for a number of reasons including legal and environment issues. This paper will discuss media life considerations and life cycle costs associated with several methods of storing engineering records.

  16. Aircraft Disposal and Recycle Cost Estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curran, Ricky; Borsato, M.; Wognum, N.; Peruzzini, M.; Stjepandić, J.; Verhagen, W.J.C.

    2016-01-01

    The present study develops a method for the sake of evaluating Disposal and Recycle (D&R) cost in view of the increasing demand in aircraft retirement. Firstly, a process model is extracted. The subordinated cost elements are also identified. Next, the cost aggregations based on the D&R

  17. AN OVERVIEW OF TOOL FOR RESPONSE ACTION COST ESTIMATING (TRACE)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    FERRIES SR; KLINK KL; OSTAPKOWICZ B

    2012-01-30

    Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel{reg_sign} workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

  18. Comprehensive Approach to Oil Well Drilling Cost Estimation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The comprehensive approach to oil well drilling cost estimation was presented. A formular was derived from the existing drilling cost estimation formulae that considered a parameter known as host community cost (HCC), which was introduced into the existing formula to make it more comprehensive. The host community ...

  19. 45 CFR 263.14 - What methodology shall States use to allocate TANF costs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...? § 263.14 What methodology shall States use to allocate TANF costs? States shall use a benefiting program cost allocation methodology consistent with the general requirements of OMB Circular A-87 (2 CFR part... costs? 263.14 Section 263.14 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare OFFICE OF FAMILY...

  20. Assuring Software Cost Estimates: Is it an Oxymoron?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jarius; Tregre, Grant

    2013-01-01

    The software industry repeatedly observes cost growth of well over 100% even after decades of cost estimation research and well-known best practices, so "What's the problem?" In this paper we will provide an overview of the current state oj software cost estimation best practice. We then explore whether applying some of the methods used in software assurance might improve the quality of software cost estimates. This paper especially focuses on issues associated with model calibration, estimate review, and the development and documentation of estimates as part alan integrated plan.

  1. A robust methodology for modal parameters estimation applied to SHM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Rharã; Cury, Alexandre; Barbosa, Flávio

    2017-10-01

    The subject of structural health monitoring is drawing more and more attention over the last years. Many vibration-based techniques aiming at detecting small structural changes or even damage have been developed or enhanced through successive researches. Lately, several studies have focused on the use of raw dynamic data to assess information about structural condition. Despite this trend and much skepticism, many methods still rely on the use of modal parameters as fundamental data for damage detection. Therefore, it is of utmost importance that modal identification procedures are performed with a sufficient level of precision and automation. To fulfill these requirements, this paper presents a novel automated time-domain methodology to identify modal parameters based on a two-step clustering analysis. The first step consists in clustering modes estimates from parametric models of different orders, usually presented in stabilization diagrams. In an automated manner, the first clustering analysis indicates which estimates correspond to physical modes. To circumvent the detection of spurious modes or the loss of physical ones, a second clustering step is then performed. The second step consists in the data mining of information gathered from the first step. To attest the robustness and efficiency of the proposed methodology, numerically generated signals as well as experimental data obtained from a simply supported beam tested in laboratory and from a railway bridge are utilized. The results appeared to be more robust and accurate comparing to those obtained from methods based on one-step clustering analysis.

  2. Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, ED; Fridge, Ernie; Hamaker, Joe

    1990-01-01

    Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are

  3. Forensic anthropology casework-essential methodological considerations in stature estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Menezes, Ritesh G; Ghosh, Abhik

    2012-03-01

    The examination of skeletal remains is a challenge to the medical examiner's/coroner's office and the forensic anthropologist conducting the investigation. One of the objectives of the medico-legal investigation is to estimate stature or height from various skeletal remains and body parts brought for examination. Various skeletal remains and body parts bear a positive and linear correlation with stature and have been successfully used for stature estimation. This concept is utilized in estimation of stature in forensic anthropology casework in mass disasters and other forensic examinations. Scientists have long been involved in standardizing the anthropological data with respect to various populations of the world. This review deals with some essential methodological issues that need to be addressed in research related to estimation of stature in forensic examinations. These issues have direct relevance in the identification of commingled or unknown remains and therefore it is essential that forensic nurses are familiar with the theories and techniques used in forensic anthropology. © 2012 International Association of Forensic Nurses.

  4. Mars Rover/Sample Return - Phase A cost estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stancati, Michael L.; Spadoni, Daniel J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents a preliminary cost estimate for the design and development of the Mars Rover/Sample Return (MRSR) mission. The estimate was generated using a modeling tool specifically built to provide useful cost estimates from design parameters of the type and fidelity usually available during early phases of mission design. The model approach and its application to MRSR are described.

  5. Aircraft bi-level life cycle cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curan, R.

    2015-01-01

    n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost,

  6. The cost of liver disease in Korea: methodology, data, and evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wankyo Chung

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background/AimsThis study introduces methods for estimating the cost of liver disease and presents useful and reliable sources of data. The available evidence on the costs associated with liver disease is also discussed.MethodsCosting methodology can be used to identify, measure, and value relevant resources incurred during the care of patients with liver diseases. It adjusts for discounting, skewed distribution, and missing or censored cost data. The human capital approach for productivity cost assumes that deceased patients would have lived to a normal expected life expectancy, and have earned a salary in line with the current age profile of wages, in order to measure potential earnings lost due to premature death or job loss.EvidenceThe number of deaths due to liver cancer (C22 increased from 6,384 in 1983 to 11,405 in 2013, while deaths due to other liver diseases (K70-K76 increased from 12,563 in 1983 to 13,458 in 1995, and then declined to 6,665 in 2013. According to the Global Burden of Disease study conducted by the World Health Organization, liver cancer caused 325,815 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, and cirrhosis of the liver caused 206,917 DALYs in 2012. The total cost of liver disease was estimated at 1,941 billion Korean won in 2001 and 5,689 billion Korean won in 2008. Much of this cost is attributable to productivity cost, and especially that of economically active men.ConclusionsThe economic burden of liver disease is immense because of the associated high mortality and morbidity, especially among the economically active population. This indicates the need to prioritize the development of appropriate health interventions.

  7. The cost of liver disease in Korea: methodology, data, and evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Wankyo

    2015-03-01

    This study introduces methods for estimating the cost of liver disease and presents useful and reliable sources of data. The available evidence on the costs associated with liver disease is also discussed. Costing methodology can be used to identify, measure, and value relevant resources incurred during the care of patients with liver diseases. It adjusts for discounting, skewed distribution, and missing or censored cost data. The human capital approach for productivity cost assumes that deceased patients would have lived to a normal expected life expectancy, and have earned a salary in line with the current age profile of wages, in order to measure potential earnings lost due to premature death or job loss. The number of deaths due to liver cancer (C22) increased from 6,384 in 1983 to 11,405 in 2013, while deaths due to other liver diseases (K70-K76) increased from 12,563 in 1983 to 13,458 in 1995, and then declined to 6,665 in 2013. According to the Global Burden of Disease study conducted by the World Health Organization, liver cancer caused 325,815 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and cirrhosis of the liver caused 206,917 DALYs in 2012. The total cost of liver disease was estimated at 1,941 billion Korean won in 2001 and 5,689 billion Korean won in 2008. Much of this cost is attributable to productivity cost, and especially that of economically active men. The economic burden of liver disease is immense because of the associated high mortality and morbidity, especially among the economically active population. This indicates the need to prioritize the development of appropriate health interventions.

  8. Costs of sea dikes - regressions and uncertainty estimates

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lenk, Stephan; Rybski, Diego; Heidrich, Oliver; Dawson, Richard J; Kropp, Jürgen P

    2017-01-01

    ... – probabilistic functions of dike costs. Data from Canada and the Netherlands are analysed and related to published studies from the US, UK, and Vietnam in order to provide a reproducible estimate of typical sea dike costs and their uncertainty...

  9. Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, Claude R.; Lauriem, Jonathan R.; Levack, Daniel H.; Zapata, Edgar

    2011-01-01

    Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the impct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

  10. Estimation of optimal educational cost per medical student.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Eunbae B; Lee, Seunghee

    2009-09-01

    This study aims to estimate the optimal educational cost per medical student. A private medical college in Seoul was targeted by the study, and its 2006 learning environment and data from the 2003~2006 budget and settlement were carefully analyzed. Through interviews with 3 medical professors and 2 experts in the economics of education, the study attempted to establish the educational cost estimation model, which yields an empirically computed estimate of the optimal cost per student in medical college. The estimation model was based primarily upon the educational cost which consisted of direct educational costs (47.25%), support costs (36.44%), fixed asset purchases (11.18%) and costs for student affairs (5.14%). These results indicate that the optimal cost per student is approximately 20,367,000 won each semester; thus, training a doctor costs 162,936,000 won over 4 years. Consequently, we inferred that the tuition levels of a local medical college or professional medical graduate school cover one quarter or one-half of the per- student cost. The findings of this study do not necessarily imply an increase in medical college tuition; the estimation of the per-student cost for training to be a doctor is one matter, and the issue of who should bear this burden is another. For further study, we should consider the college type and its location for general application of the estimation method, in addition to living expenses and opportunity costs.

  11. Comparison of sampling methodologies for nutrient monitoring in streams: uncertainties, costs and implications for mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audet, J.; Martinsen, L.; Hasler, B.; de Jonge, H.; Karydi, E.; Ovesen, N. B.; Kronvang, B.

    2014-11-01

    Eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems caused by excess concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus may have harmful consequences for biodiversity and poses a health risk to humans via water supplies. Reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus losses to aquatic ecosystems involves implementation of costly measures, and reliable monitoring methods are therefore essential to select appropriate mitigation strategies and to evaluate their effects. Here, we compare the performances and costs of three methodologies for the monitoring of nutrients in rivers: grab sampling; time-proportional sampling; and passive sampling using flow-proportional samplers. Assuming hourly time-proportional sampling to be the best estimate of the "true" nutrient load, our results showed that the risk of obtaining wrong total nutrient load estimates by passive samplers is high despite similar costs as the time-proportional sampling. Our conclusion is that for passive samplers to provide a reliable monitoring alternative, further development is needed. Grab sampling was the cheapest of the three methods and was more precise and accurate than passive sampling. We conclude that although monitoring employing time-proportional sampling is costly, its reliability precludes unnecessarily high implementation expenses.

  12. A practical approach for calculating reliable cost estimates from observational data: application to cost analyses in maternal and child health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salemi, Jason L; Comins, Meg M; Chandler, Kristen; Mogos, Mulubrhan F; Salihu, Hamisu M

    2013-08-01

    Comparative effectiveness research (CER) and cost-effectiveness analysis are valuable tools for informing health policy and clinical care decisions. Despite the increased availability of rich observational databases with economic measures, few researchers have the skills needed to conduct valid and reliable cost analyses for CER. The objectives of this paper are to (i) describe a practical approach for calculating cost estimates from hospital charges in discharge data using publicly available hospital cost reports, and (ii) assess the impact of using different methods for cost estimation in maternal and child health (MCH) studies by conducting economic analyses on gestational diabetes (GDM) and pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity. In Florida, we have constructed a clinically enhanced, longitudinal, encounter-level MCH database covering over 2.3 million infants (and their mothers) born alive from 1998 to 2009. Using this as a template, we describe a detailed methodology to use publicly available data to calculate hospital-wide and department-specific cost-to-charge ratios (CCRs), link them to the master database, and convert reported hospital charges to refined cost estimates. We then conduct an economic analysis as a case study on women by GDM and pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) status to compare the impact of using different methods on cost estimation. Over 60 % of inpatient charges for birth hospitalizations came from the nursery/labor/delivery units, which have very different cost-to-charge markups (CCR = 0.70) than the commonly substituted hospital average (CCR = 0.29). Using estimated mean, per-person maternal hospitalization costs for women with GDM as an example, unadjusted charges ($US14,696) grossly overestimated actual cost, compared with hospital-wide ($US3,498) and department-level ($US4,986) CCR adjustments. However, the refined cost estimation method, although more accurate, did not alter our conclusions that infant/maternal hospitalization costs

  13. Methodological aspects of accounting production cost of public sector entities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Людмила Геннадіївна Ловінська

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The necessity of obtaining objective information about the activities of the public sector in various areas of the production is defined. It is proved an expediency of development the Project of «Guidelines for the structure of production costs» on the basis of the approved in the public sector NP(SAPS 135 "Costs". The need for accounting costs by type of activity (operational, financial and investment is marked. The composition of production costs is defined

  14. Estimation of health care costs and cost recovery: the case of Rafidya Hospital in Palestine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younis, Mustafa Z; Jabr, Samer F K; Plante, Catherine; Forgione, Dana A

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop an estimation model for health care costs and cost recovery, and evaluate service sustainability under an uncertain environment. The Palestinian National Authority's recent focus on improving financial accountability supports the need to research health care costs in the Palestinian territories. We examine data from Rafidya Hospital from 2005-2009 and use step-down allocation to distribute overhead costs. We use an ingredient approach to estimate the costs and revenues of health services, and logarithmic estimation to prospectively estimate the demand for 2011. Our results indicate that while cost recovery is generally insufficient for long-term sustainability, some services can recover their costs in the short run. Our results provide information useful for health care policy makers in setting multiple-goal policies related to health care financing in Palestine, and provide an important initiative in the estimation of health service costs.

  15. DATA MINING METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL MODEL OF COST PREDICTION IN SHIP INTERIM PRODUCT ASSEMBLY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damir Kolich

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to accurately predict costs of the thousands of interim products that are assembled in shipyards, it is necessary to use skilled engineers to develop detailed Gantt charts for each interim product separately which takes many hours. It is helpful to develop a prediction tool to estimate the cost of interim products accurately and quickly without the need for skilled engineers. This will drive down shipyard costs and improve competitiveness. Data mining is used extensively for developing prediction models in other industries. Since ships consist of thousands of interim products, it is logical to develop a data mining methodology for a shipyard or any other manufacturing industry where interim products are produced. The methodology involves analysis of existing interim products and data collection. Pre-processing and principal component analysis is done to make the data “user-friendly” for later prediction processing and the development of both accurate and robust models. The support vector machine is demonstrated as the better model when there are a lower number of tuples. However as the number of tuples is increased to over 10000, then the artificial neural network model is recommended.

  16. Costing the distribution of insecticide-treated nets: a review of cost and cost-effectiveness studies to provide guidance on standardization of costing methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolaczinski, Jan; Hanson, Kara

    2006-05-08

    Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are an effective and cost-effective means of malaria control. Scaling-up coverage of ITNs is challenging. It requires substantial resources and there are a number of strategies to choose from. Information on the cost of different strategies is still scarce. To guide the choice of a delivery strategy (or combination of strategies), reliable and standardized cost information for the different options is required. The electronic online database PubMed was used for a systematic search of the published English literature on costing and economic evaluations of ITN distribution programmes. The keywords used were: net, bednet, insecticide, treated, ITN, cost, effectiveness, economic and evaluation. Identified papers were analysed to determine and evaluate the costing methods used. Methods were judged against existing standards of cost analysis to arrive at proposed standards for undertaking and presenting cost analyses. Cost estimates were often not readily comparable or could not be adjusted to a different context. This resulted from the wide range of methods applied and measures of output chosen. Most common shortcomings were the omission of certain costs and failure to adjust financial costs to generate economic costs. Generalisability was hampered by authors not reporting quantities and prices of resources separately and not examining the sensitivity of their results to variations in underlying assumptions. The observed shortcomings have arisen despite the abundance of literature and guidelines on costing of health care interventions. This paper provides ITN specific recommendations in the hope that these will help to standardize future cost estimates.

  17. Regional Cost Estimates for Reclamation Practices on Arid and Semiarid Lands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    W. K. Ostler

    2002-02-01

    The U.S. Army uses the Integrated Training Area Management program for managing training land. One of the major objectives of the Integrated Training Area Management program has been to develop a method for estimating training land carrying capacity in a sustainable manner. The Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology measures training load in terms of Maneuver Impact Miles. One Maneuver Impact Mile is the equivalent impact of an M1A2 tank traveling one mile while participating in an armor battalion field training exercise. The Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology is also designed to predict land maintenance costs in terms of dollars per Maneuver Impact Mile. The overall cost factor is calculated using the historical cost of land maintenance practices and the effectiveness of controlling erosion. Because land maintenance costs and effectiveness are influenced by the characteristics of the land, Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity cost factors must be developed for each ecological region of the country. Costs for land maintenance activities are presented here for the semiarid and arid regions of the United States. Five ecoregions are recognized, and average values for reclamation activities are presented. Because there are many variables that can influence costs, ranges for reclamation activities are also presented. Costs are broken down into six major categories: seedbed preparation, fertilization, seeding, planting, mulching, and supplemental erosion control. Costs for most land reclamation practices and materials varied widely within and between ecological provinces. Although regional cost patterns were evident for some practices, the patterns were not consistent between practices. For the purpose of estimating land reclamation costs for the Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology, it may be desirable to use the ''Combined Average'' of all provinces found in the last

  18. Estimating management costs of protected areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Green, Jonathan M.H.; Burgess, Neil David; Green, Rhys E.

    2012-01-01

    Despite chronic underfunding for conservation and the recognition that funds must be invested wisely, few studies have analysed the direct costs of managing protected areas at the spatial scales needed to inform local site management. Using a questionnaire survey we collected data from protected...... in actual spend and over 40% of variation in necessary spend. Population pressure is a variable that has not been used to model protected area management costs before, yet proved to be considerably better at predicting both actual and necessary spend than other measures of anthropogenic pressure. We use our...... area managers in the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania to establish how much is currently spent on reserve management and how much is required to meet conservation objectives. We use an information theoretic approach to model spatial variation in these costs using a range of plausible, spatially...

  19. Methodological Challenges in Estimating Trends and Burden of Cardiovascular Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob K. Kariuki

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Although 80% of the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD is in developing countries, the 2010 global burden of disease (GBD estimates have been cited to support a premise that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA is exempt from the CVD epidemic sweeping across developing countries. The widely publicized perspective influences research priorities and resource allocation at a time when secular trends indicate a rapid increase in prevalence of CVD in SSA by 2030. Purpose. To explore methodological challenges in estimating trends and burden of CVD in SSA via appraisal of the current CVD statistics and literature. Methods. This review was guided by the Critical review methodology described by Grant and Booth. The review traces the origins and evolution of GBD metrics and then explores the methodological limitations inherent in the current GBD statistics. Articles were included based on their conceptual contribution to the existing body of knowledge on the burden of CVD in SSA. Results/Conclusion. Cognizant of the methodological challenges discussed, we caution against extrapolation of the global burden of CVD statistics in a way that underrates the actual but uncertain impact of CVD in SSA. We conclude by making a case for optimal but cost-effective surveillance and prevention of CVD in SSA.

  20. Cost estimating issues in the Russian integrated system planning context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allentuck, J.

    1996-03-01

    An important factor in the credibility of an optimal capacity expansion plan is the accuracy of cost estimates given the uncertainty of future economic conditions. This paper examines the problems associated with estimating investment and operating costs in the Russian nuclear power context over the period 1994 to 2010.

  1. Aircraft Airframe Cost Estimating Relationships: Fighters

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-12-01

    and robots ), We beliLve that the material and design changes will act to increase unit costs but we are uncertain about the net impact of capital...10IA F31-12F-100A F-.102A XFIOF’I , FIIFI _ Air Force 4 FleAs F4D-1 nl = 25 0Nv 1950 -9F.2 . 9FO SEE , 0.14 FP8 RI = 0.92 F.94A F = 45 1945 FH’l I " 1...computers and robots ). We believe the material and design changes will act to increase unit costs but are uncertain of the net impact of capital

  2. The direct cost of epilepsy in the United States: A systematic review of estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begley, Charles E; Durgin, Tracy L

    2015-09-01

    To develop estimates of the direct cost of epilepsy in the United States for the general epilepsy population and sub-populations by systematically comparing similarities and differences in types of estimates and estimation methods from recently published studies. Papers published since 1995 were identified by systematic literature search. Information on types of estimates, study designs, data sources, types of epilepsy, and estimation methods was extracted from each study. Annual per person cost estimates from methodologically similar studies were identified, converted to 2013 U.S. dollars, and compared. From 4,104 publications discovered in the literature search, 21 were selected for review. Three were added that were published after the search. Eighteen were identified that reported estimates of average annual direct costs for the general epilepsy population in the United States. For general epilepsy populations (comprising all clinically defined subgroups), total direct healthcare costs per person ranged from $10,192 to $47,862 and epilepsy-specific costs ranged from $1,022 to $19,749. Four recent studies using claims data from large general populations yielded relatively similar epilepsy-specific annual cost estimates ranging from $8,412 to $11,354. Although more difficult to compare, studies examining direct cost differences for epilepsy sub-populations indicated a consistent pattern of markedly higher costs for those with uncontrolled or refractory epilepsy, and for those with comorbidities. This systematic review found that various approaches have been used to estimate the direct costs of epilepsy in the United States. However, recent studies using large claims databases and similar methods allow estimation of the direct cost burden of epilepsy for the general disease population, and show that it is greater for some patient subgroups. Additional research is needed to further understand the broader economic burden of epilepsy and how it varies across

  3. Semi/nonparametric estimation of consumer search costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moraga González, J.L.; Sándor, Z.; Wildenbeest, 27693

    2013-01-01

    This paper studies the estimation of the distribution of non-sequential search costs. We show that the search cost distribution is identified by combining data from multiple markets with common search technology but varying consumer valuations, firms' costs, and numbers of competitors. To exploit

  4. Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of Consumer Search Costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moraga González, J.L.; Sandor, Z.; Wildenbeest, M.

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY: This paper studies the estimation of the distribution of non-sequential search costs. We show that the search cost distribution is identified by combining data from multiple markets with common search technology but varying consumer valuations, firms' costs, and numbers of competitors. To

  5. Project cost estimation techniques used by most emerging building ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    estimating strategies, understanding of basic cost concepts, project risk .... poor project costing. Besides the prices that deviate far from the reasonable limits, emerging contractors seem to be using outdated project costing methods (i.e. methods no longer used .... returnable schedules and whether electronic or other forms.

  6. Estimating two indirect logging costs caused by accelerated erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen O. Klock

    1976-01-01

    In forest areas where high soil erosion potential exists, a comparative yarding cost estimate, including the indirect costs determined by methods proposed here, shows that the total cost of using "advanced" logging methods may be less than that of "traditional" systems.

  7. Review of storage battery system cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, D.R.; Russell, J.A.

    1986-04-01

    Cost analyses for zinc bromine, sodium sulfur, and lead acid batteries were reviewed. Zinc bromine and sodium sulfur batteries were selected because of their advanced design nature and the high level of interest in these two technologies. Lead acid batteries were included to establish a baseline representative of a more mature technology.

  8. AX Tank Farm waste retrieval alternatives cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krieg, S.A.

    1998-07-21

    This report presents the estimated costs associated with retrieval of the wastes from the four tanks in AX Tank Farm. The engineering cost estimates developed for this report are based on previous cost data prepared for Project W-320 and the HTI 241-C-106 Heel Retrieval System. The costs presented in this report address only the retrieval of the wastes from the four AX Farm tanks. This includes costs for equipment procurement, fabrication, installation, and operation to retrieve the wastes. The costs to modify the existing plant equipment and systems to support the retrieval equipment are also included. The estimates do not include operational costs associated with pumping the waste out of the waste receiver tank (241-AY-102) between AX Farm retrieval campaigns or transportation, processing, and disposal of the retrieved waste.

  9. Production Risk and the Estimation of Ex Ante Cost Functions

    OpenAIRE

    Moschini, GianCarlo

    2001-01-01

    Cost function estimation under production uncertainty is problematic because the relevant cost is conditional on unobservable expected output. If input demand functions are also stochastic, then a nonlinear errors-in-variables model is obtained and standard estimation procedures typically fail to attain consistency. But by exploiting the full implications of the expected profit maximization hypothesis that gives rise to ex ante cost functions, it is shown that the errors-in-variables problem ...

  10. Survey of State-Level Cost and Benefit Estimates of Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heeter, J.; Barbose, G.; Bird, L.; Weaver, S.; Flores-Espino, F.; Kuskova-Burns, K.; Wiser, R.

    2014-05-01

    Most renewable portfolio standards (RPS) have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS costs and benefits is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. This study provides an overview of methods used to estimate RPS compliance costs and benefits, based on available data and estimates issued by utilities and regulators. Over the 2010-2012 period, average incremental RPS compliance costs in the United States were equivalent to 0.8% of retail electricity rates, although substantial variation exists around this average, both from year-to-year and across states. The methods used by utilities and regulators to estimate incremental compliance costs vary considerably from state to state and a number of states are currently engaged in processes to refine and standardize their approaches to RPS cost calculation. The report finds that state assessments of RPS benefits have most commonly attempted to quantitatively assess avoided emissions and human health benefits, economic development impacts, and wholesale electricity price savings. Compared to the summary of RPS costs, the summary of RPS benefits is more limited, as relatively few states have undertaken detailed benefits estimates, and then only for a few types of potential policy impacts. In some cases, the same impacts may be captured in the assessment of incremental costs. For these reasons, and because methodologies and level of rigor vary widely, direct comparisons between the estimates of benefits and costs are challenging.

  11. An Evaluation of Software Cost Estimating Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-06-01

    and Model Outputs - Wolverton 5-15 Table 7 4s a summary comparison of the model outputs with the needs described in Sectin 3. A liberal interpretation...Computer Program Development Costs, Tecolote Research, Inc., TM-7, Dec. 1974. A-82 LUJO = 4j 1o -(AI V; L/- c- - I Iun 00. Ln uI 0e V.0 / I) 0o I- t

  12. Full cost accounting in the analysis of separated waste collection efficiency: A methodological proposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Onza, Giuseppe; Greco, Giulio; Allegrini, Marco

    2016-02-01

    Recycling implies additional costs for separated municipal solid waste (MSW) collection. The aim of the present study is to propose and implement a management tool - the full cost accounting (FCA) method - to calculate the full collection costs of different types of waste. Our analysis aims for a better understanding of the difficulties of putting FCA into practice in the MSW sector. We propose a FCA methodology that uses standard cost and actual quantities to calculate the collection costs of separate and undifferentiated waste. Our methodology allows cost efficiency analysis and benchmarking, overcoming problems related to firm-specific accounting choices, earnings management policies and purchase policies. Our methodology allows benchmarking and variance analysis that can be used to identify the causes of off-standards performance and guide managers to deploy resources more efficiently. Our methodology can be implemented by companies lacking a sophisticated management accounting system. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Estimating the Life Cycle Cost of Space Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harry W.

    2015-01-01

    A space system's Life Cycle Cost (LCC) includes design and development, launch and emplacement, and operations and maintenance. Each of these cost factors is usually estimated separately. NASA uses three different parametric models for the design and development cost of crewed space systems; the commercial PRICE-H space hardware cost model, the NASA-Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), and the Advanced Missions Cost Model (AMCM). System mass is an important parameter in all three models. System mass also determines the launch and emplacement cost, which directly depends on the cost per kilogram to launch mass to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The launch and emplacement cost is the cost to launch to LEO the system itself and also the rockets, propellant, and lander needed to emplace it. The ratio of the total launch mass to payload mass depends on the mission scenario and destination. The operations and maintenance costs include any material and spares provided, the ground control crew, and sustaining engineering. The Mission Operations Cost Model (MOCM) estimates these costs as a percentage of the system development cost per year.

  14. Cost estimation of cardiovascular disease events in the US.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Sullivan, Amy K; Rubin, Jaime; Nyambose, Joshua; Kuznik, Andreas; Cohen, David J; Thompson, David

    2011-08-01

    In this study, we developed cost prediction equations that facilitate estimation of the costs of various cardiovascular events for patients of specific demographic and clinical characteristics over varying time horizons. We used administrative claims data and generalized linear models to develop cost prediction equations for selected cardiovascular events, including myocardial infarction (MI), angina, strokes and revascularization procedures. Separate equations were estimated for patients with events and for their propensity score-matched controls. Attributable costs were estimated on a monthly basis for the first 36 months after each event and annually thereafter, with differences in survival between cases and controls factored into the longitudinal cost calculations. The regression models were used to estimate event costs ($US, year 2007 values) for the 'average' patient in each event group, over various time periods ranging from 1 month to lifetime. When the equations are run for the average patient in each event group, attributable costs of each event in the acute phase (i.e. first 3 years) are substantial (e.g. MI $US 73 300; hospitalization for angina $US 36 000; non-fatal haemorrhagic stroke $US 71 600). Furthermore, for most events, cumulative costs remain substantially higher among cases than among controls over the remaining lifetime of the patients. This study provides updated estimates of medical care costs of cardiovascular events among a managed care population over various time horizons. Results suggest that the economic burden of cardiovascular disease is substantial, both in the acute phase as well as over the longer term.

  15. 18 CFR 301.7 - Average System Cost methodology functionalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Maintenance Ratio. (9) PTDG—Production, Transmission, Distribution/Other, General Plant Ratio. (10) LABOR... methodology functionalization. 301.7 Section 301.7 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS FOR FEDERAL POWER MARKETING ADMINISTRATIONS AVERAGE...

  16. The social cost of rheumatoid arthritis in Italy: the results of an estimation exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchetti, G; Bellelli, S; Mosca, M

    2014-03-14

    The objective of this study is to estimate the mean annual social cost per adult person and the total social cost of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Italy. A literature review was performed by searching primary economic studies on adults in order to collect cost data of RA in Italy in the last decade. The review results were merged with data of institutional sources for estimating - following the methodological steps of the cost of illness analysis - the social cost of RA in Italy. The mean annual social cost of RA was € 13,595 per adult patient in Italy. Affecting 259,795 persons, RA determines a social cost of € 3.5 billions in Italy. Non-medical direct cost and indirect cost represent the main cost items (48% and 31%) of the total social cost of RA in Italy. Based on these results, it appears evident that the assessment of the economic burden of RA solely based on direct medical costs evaluation gives a limited view of the phenomenon.

  17. Estimating switching costs of changing social networking sites

    OpenAIRE

    Nakamura, Akihiro

    2012-01-01

    This study's empirical analysis shows that the consumers' switching costs when changing SNS are less than that when changing BB service. SNS switching cost is estimated at JPY 944, while that in BB service is estimated at JPY 2864 (JPY 80 = USD 1 on 21st May 2012). According to these results, the switching cost of the former is approximately one-third of that of the latter. One of the reasons why SNS switching costs are smaller could be because of the current small number of friends on SNS. I...

  18. Improving The Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piland, William M.; Pine, David J.; Wilson, Delano M.

    2000-01-01

    The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning many program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility. This paper presents the plans for the newly established role. Described is how the Independent Program Assessment Office, working with all NASA Centers, NASA Headquarters, other Government agencies, and industry, is focused on creating cost estimation and analysis as a professional discipline that will be recognized equally with the technical disciplines needed to design new space and aeronautics activities. Investments in selected, new analysis tools, creating advanced training opportunities for analysts, and developing career paths for future analysts engaged in the discipline are all elements of the plan. Plans also include increasing the human resources available to conduct independent cost analysis of Agency programs during their formulation, to improve near-term capability to conduct economic cost-benefit assessments, to support NASA management's decision process, and to provide cost analysis results emphasizing "full-cost" and "full-life cycle" considerations. The Agency cost analysis improvement plan has been approved for implementation starting this calendar year. Adequate financial

  19. COSTMODL: An automated software development cost estimation tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, George B.

    1991-01-01

    The cost of developing computer software continues to consume an increasing portion of many organizations' total budgets, both in the public and private sector. As this trend develops, the capability to produce reliable estimates of the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product takes on increasing importance. The COSTMODL program was developed to provide an in-house capability to perform development cost estimates for NASA software projects. COSTMODL is an automated software development cost estimation tool which incorporates five cost estimation algorithms including the latest models for the Ada language and incrementally developed products. The principal characteristic which sets COSTMODL apart from other software cost estimation programs is its capacity to be completely customized to a particular environment. The estimation equations can be recalibrated to reflect the programmer productivity characteristics demonstrated by the user's organization, and the set of significant factors which effect software development costs can be customized to reflect any unique properties of the user's development environment. Careful use of a capability such as COSTMODL can significantly reduce the risk of cost overruns and failed projects.

  20. A methodology for estimating health benefits of electricity generation using renewable technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partridge, Ian; Gamkhar, Shama

    2012-02-01

    At Copenhagen, the developed countries agreed to provide up to $100 bn per year to finance climate change mitigation and adaptation by developing countries. Projects aimed at cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will need to be evaluated against dual criteria: from the viewpoint of the developed countries they must cut emissions of GHGs at reasonable cost, while host countries will assess their contribution to development, or simply their overall economic benefits. Co-benefits of some types of project will also be of interest to host countries: for example some projects will contribute to reducing air pollution, thus improving the health of the local population. This paper uses a simple damage function methodology to quantify some of the health co-benefits of replacing coal-fired generation with wind or small hydro in China. We estimate the monetary value of these co-benefits and find that it is probably small compared to the added costs. We have not made a full cost-benefit analysis of renewable energy in China as some likely co-benefits are omitted from our calculations. Our results are subject to considerable uncertainty however, after careful consideration of their likely accuracy and comparisons with other studies, we believe that they provide a good first cut estimate of co-benefits and are sufficiently robust to stand as a guide for policy makers. In addition to these empirical results, a key contribution made by the paper is to demonstrate a simple and reasonably accurate methodology for health benefits estimation that applies the most recent academic research in the field to the solution of an increasingly important problem. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A Methodology for Identifying Cost Effective Strategic Force Mixes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-12-01

    COPYRIGHT (C) 1992 REGENTS OF UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PROGRAM CONTROL INFORMAT ION /PROBLEM TITLE IS ’ ESTIMATION OF CES PRODUCTION FUNCTION’. IINPUT...SPECIFIED IN THE INPUT PARAGRAPH MILL REFER TO LOCAL FILE NANE BD4K2C FOR THIS PROBLEM. PROBLEM TITLE IS ESTIMATION OF CES(P:-1) PRODUCTION FUNCTION NUMER OF...PROGRAM CONTROL INFORMAT ION /PROBLEM TITLE IS ’ ESTIMATION OF CES(P2-1) PRODUCTION FUNCTION’. /INPUT VARIABLES ARE 3. FORMAT IS ’ F3.0,1I,F3.0,11

  2. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murray Christopher JL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  3. Costing the distribution of insecticide-treated nets: a review of cost and cost-effectiveness studies to provide guidance on standardization of costing methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanson Kara

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs are an effective and cost-effective means of malaria control. Scaling-up coverage of ITNs is challenging. It requires substantial resources and there are a number of strategies to choose from. Information on the cost of different strategies is still scarce. To guide the choice of a delivery strategy (or combination of strategies, reliable and standardized cost information for the different options is required. Methods The electronic online database PubMed was used for a systematic search of the published English literature on costing and economic evaluations of ITN distribution programmes. The keywords used were: net, bednet, insecticide, treated, ITN, cost, effectiveness, economic and evaluation. Identified papers were analysed to determine and evaluate the costing methods used. Methods were judged against existing standards of cost analysis to arrive at proposed standards for undertaking and presenting cost analyses. Results Cost estimates were often not readily comparable or could not be adjusted to a different context. This resulted from the wide range of methods applied and measures of output chosen. Most common shortcomings were the omission of certain costs and failure to adjust financial costs to generate economic costs. Generalisability was hampered by authors not reporting quantities and prices of resources separately and not examining the sensitivity of their results to variations in underlying assumptions. Conclusion The observed shortcomings have arisen despite the abundance of literature and guidelines on costing of health care interventions. This paper provides ITN specific recommendations in the hope that these will help to standardize future cost estimates.

  4. Preliminary Cost Estimates of Pollution Control Technologies for Geothermal Developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sung, R.; Houser, G.; Richard, G.; Cotter, J.; Weller, P.; Pulaski, E.

    1979-10-01

    This is the first report from the EPA estimating the cost of technology for mitigating pollution that might arise from geothermal power systems. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has taken an initial step towards the establishment of regulatory standards for the geothermal industry by preparing a document entitled Pollution Control Guidance for Geothermal Energy Development. This report supports that document by providing pollution control cost information. The objective of this report is to provide preliminary cost estimates for air and water pollution treatment and disposal technologies applicable for geothermal energy conversion systems. Cost estimates include both annualized capital investment and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for various levels of environmental requirements. [DJE-2005

  5. Developing and validating a highway construction project cost estimation tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-01-01

    In May 2002, Virginia's Commonwealth Transportation Commissioner tasked his Chief of Technology, Research & Innovation with leading an effort to develop a definitive, consistent, and well-documented approach for estimating the cost of delivering cons...

  6. Reliability/Cost Evaluation on Power System connected with Wind Power for the Reserve Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Go-Eun; Cha, Seung-Tae; Shin, Je-Seok

    2012-01-01

    Wind power is ideally a renewable energy with no fuel cost, but has a risk to reduce reliability of the whole system because of uncertainty of the output. If the reserve of the system is increased, the reliability of the system may be improved. However, the cost would be increased. Therefore...... the reserve needs to be estimated considering the trade-off between reliability and economic aspects. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate the appropriate reserve, when wind power is connected to the power system. As a case study, when wind power is connected to power system of Korea, the effects...

  7. Low-income DSM Programs: Methodological approach to determining the cost-effectiveness of coordinated partnerships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Hill, L.J.

    1994-05-01

    As governments at all levels become increasingly budget-conscious, expenditures on low-income, demand-side management (DSM) programs are being evaluated more on the basis of efficiency at the expense of equity considerations. Budgetary pressures have also caused government agencies to emphasize resource leveraging and coordination with electric and gas utilities as a means of sharing the expenses of low-income programs. The increased involvement of electric and gas utilities in coordinated low-income DSM programs, in turn, has resulted in greater emphasis on estimating program cost-effectiveness. The objective of this study is to develop a methodological approach to estimate the cost- effectiveness of coordinated low-income DSM programs, given the special features that distinguish these programs from other utility-operated DSM programs. The general approach used in this study was to (1) select six coordinated low-income DSM programs from among those currently operating across the United States, (2) examine the main features of these programs, and (3) determine the conceptual and pragmatic problems associated with estimating their cost-effectiveness. Three types of coordination between government and utility cosponsors were identified. At one extreme, local agencies operate {open_quotes}parallel{close_quotes} programs, each of which is fully funded by a single sponsor (e.g., one funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and the other by a utility). At the other extreme are highly {open_quotes}coupled{close_quotes} programs that capitalize on the unique capabilities and resources offered by each cosponsor. In these programs, agencies employ a combination of utility and government funds to deliver weatherization services as part of an integrated effort. In between are {open_quotes}supplemental{close_quotes} programs that utilize resources to supplement the agency`s government-funded weatherization, with no changes to the operation of that program.

  8. The Cost of Crime to Society: New Crime-Specific Estimates for Policy and Program Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Michael T.; Fang, Hai

    2010-01-01

    Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than ten years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost of society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. PMID:20071107

  9. Cost estimation of injury-related hospital admissions in 10 European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polinder, Suzanne; Meerding, Willem Jan; van Baar, Margriet E; Toet, Hidde; Mulder, Saakje; van Beeck, Ed F

    2005-12-01

    Injuries are a major cause of total health care costs. Cost estimations may help identify injuries and high risk-groups to be considered for potential intervention. Hospital discharge registers of 10 European countries were used to estimate injury incidence. Consensus was reached between the participating countries about methodology, definition, classification, cost measurements, and valuation to maximize cross-national comparability of outcomes. The data of the countries were also used to give an estimate of the costs per capita by age, sex, type of injury, and external cause in Europe. Large international differences were observed in injury incidence and associated costs related to hospital admissions, with relatively high costs per capita for Austria, followed by Denmark and Norway. In Greece, Italy, Ireland, and Wales, intermediate costs per capita were found, but these costs were relatively low for Spain, England, and the Netherlands. The patterns of costs by age, sex, injury type, and external cause are quite similar between the countries. For all countries, costs per capita increase exponentially in older age groups (age > or =65 years), due to the combined effect of high incidence and high costs per patient. The elderly females account for almost triple costs compared with same age males. Young children and male adolescents are also high-cost groups. Highest costs were found for hip fractures, fractures of the knee/lower leg, superficial injuries, skull-brain injuries, and spinal cord injuries. Home and leisure injuries (including sport injuries) and occupational injuries combined make a major contribution (86%) to the hospital costs of injury. Elderly patients aged 65 years and older, especially women, consume a disproportionate share of hospital resources for trauma care, mainly caused by hip fractures and fractures of the knee/lower leg, which indicates the importance of prevention and investing in trauma care for this specific patient group.

  10. The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundaram, Meenakshi

    2005-01-01

    NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

  11. Cost estimation and management over the life cycle of metallurgical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Project life cycles, techniques of cost estimation and cost management are examined. A survey was used to gather information by means of face-to-face and telephonic interviews, as well as an electronic questionnaire. The total population of entities in South Africa that conduct metallurgical research projects is small, ...

  12. The application of cost behaviour and estimation in organisational ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on these findings, the paper recommends among others the need for the regular training of the management accountant in the modern methods of cost estimation, the need for accurate keeping of records of transactions and for long term forecasting of cost, management should rely on quantitative factors and ...

  13. Guidelines and Metrics for Assessing Space System Cost Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    1991. Hu, Shu-Ping, Franklin Fong, and Brian Enser, “Cost Improvement Analysis of USCM8 Using Quantity as an Independent Variable (QAIV),” presented...Evaluating Software Cost and Schedule Estimates, Pittsburgh: Software Engineering Institute, January 1995. Pfleeger, Shari Lawrence, Felicia Wu, and Rosalind

  14. Cost Estimation Lessons Learned for Future Submarine Acquisition Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-17

    North Carolina and New Mexico 30 General Dynamics Electric Boat “U.S. Navy Awards General Dynamics $14 Billion Contract for Eight Virginia- Class...NAVSEA Program Executive officer, Submarines PMO 450, June 1995. “New SSN Program Life Cycle Cost Estimate.” Naval Center for Cost Analysis: GE-1300

  15. Improving the Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piland, William M.; Pine, David J.; Wilson, Delano M.

    2000-01-01

    The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning man), program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility.

  16. Estimating the costs of psychiatric hospital services at a public health facility in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezenduka, Charles; Ichoku, Hyacinth; Ochonma, Ogbonnia

    2012-09-01

    Information on the cost of mental health services in Africa is very limited even though mental health disorders represent a significant public health concern, in terms of health and economic impact. Cost analysis is important for planning and for efficiency in the provision of hospital services. The study estimated the total and unit costs of psychiatric hospital services to guide policy and psychiatric hospital management efficiency in Nigeria. The study was exploratory and analytical, examining 2008 data. A standard costing methodology based on ingredient approach was adopted combining top-down method with step-down approach to allocate resources (overhead and indirect costs) to the final cost centers. Total and unit cost items related to the treatment of psychiatric patients (including the costs of personnel, overhead and annualised costs of capital items) were identified and measured on the basis of outpatients' visits, inpatients' days and inpatients' admissions. The exercise reflected the input-output process of hospital services where inputs were measured in terms of resource utilisation and output measured by activities carried out at both the outpatient and inpatient departments. In the estimation process total costs were calculated at every cost center/department and divided by a measure of corresponding patient output to produce the average cost per output. This followed a stepwise process of first allocating the direct costs of overhead to the intermediate and final cost centers and from intermediate cost centers to final cost centers for the calculation of total and unit costs. Costs were calculated from the perspective of the healthcare facility, and converted to the US Dollars at the 2008 exchange rate. Personnel constituted the greatest resource input in all departments, averaging 80% of total hospital cost, reflecting the mix of capital and recurrent inputs. Cost per inpatient day, at $56 was equivalent to 1.4 times the cost per outpatient visit at

  17. Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification: Independent Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M.

    2011-10-01

    This independent review is the conclusion arrived at from data collection, document reviews, interviews and deliberation from December 2010 through April 2011 and the technical potential of Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification. The Panel reviewed the current H2A case (Version 2.12, Case 01D) for hydrogen production via biomass gasification and identified four principal components of hydrogen levelized cost: CapEx; feedstock costs; project financing structure; efficiency/hydrogen yield. The panel reexamined the assumptions around these components and arrived at new estimates and approaches that better reflect the current technology and business environments.

  18. Cost estimation for unmanned lunar and planetary programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunkin, J. H.; Pekar, P. R.; Spadoni, D. J.; Stone, C. A.

    1973-01-01

    A basic model is presented for estimating the cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs. Cost data were collected and analyzed for eight lunar and planetary programs. Total cost was separated into the following components: labor, overhead, materials, and technical support. The study determined that direct labor cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs comprises 30 percent of the total program cost. Twelve program categories were defined for modeling: six spacecraft subsystem categories (science, structure, propulsion, electrical power, communications, and guidance and integration, test and quality assurance, launch and flight operations, ground equipment, systems analysis and engineering, and program management). An analysis showed that on a percentage basis, direct labor cost and direct labor manhours compare on a one-to-one ratio. Therefore, direct labor hours is used as the parameter for predicting cost, with the advantage of eliminating the effect of inflation on the analysis.

  19. State estimates for the annual cost of foodborne illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharff, Robert L

    2015-06-01

    An understanding of the costs associated with foodborne illnesses is important to policy makers for prioritizing resources and assessing whether proposed interventions improve social welfare. At the national level, measured costs have been used by federal food safety regulatory agencies in regulatory impact analyses. However, when costs differ across states, use of national cost-of-illness values for state-based interventions will lead to biased estimates of intervention effectiveness. In this study, the costs of foodborne illness at the state level were estimated. Using a more conservative economic model, the average cost per case ranged from $888 (90% credible interval [CI], $537 to $1,419) in West Virginia to $1,766 (90% CI, $1,231 to $2,588) in the District of Columbia. A less conservative model generated average costs per case of $1,505 (90% CI, $557 to $2,836) in Kentucky to $2,591 (90% CI, $857 to $5,134) in Maryland. Aggregated across the states, the average national cost of foodborne illness was estimated as $55.5 billion (90% CI, $33.9 to $83.3 billion) using the conservative model and $93.2 billion (90% CI, $33.0 to $176.3 billion) using the enhanced model.

  20. [Estimation of the treatment cost of cervical cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    el M'Rini, T; Arveux, P; Gay, C; Woronoff-Lemsi, M C; Gautier, C; Gaillard, A; Maillet, R; Schraub, S

    1997-12-01

    The goal of this study was to estimate direct costs induced by the first year of treatment of cervix cancers according to the stage at diagnosis. Fifteen patients of the Gynaecology Department of the Besançon hospital (Doubs, France) were involved in a prospective study to estimate the real cost of treatment of carcinomas in situ (CIS) by conization and of microinvasive carcinomas (MIC) by simple hysterectomy. Costs of invasive cancers were obtained from a retrospective analysis of 24 hospital records in the Radiotherapy Department. The average real cost of treatment for the CIS was 5023 FF (1995 French Francs). Real treatment cost of the MIC was 15,867 FF. The average cost of treatment for the IB and IIA cancers stage (FIGO classification) was 61,540 FF and 145,314 FF for the IIB to IV stage cancers. Cost-estimation of cervix cancer treatment according to the stage of diagnosis has to be done before starting a cost-effectiveness analysis of mass screening for cervix cancers. This study will allow us to take into account changes in the stages distribution following on a screening campaign.

  1. Estimating community-level costs of preterm birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, E S; Greenberg, J M

    2016-12-01

    To develop generalizable methods for estimating the economic impact of preterm birth at the community level on initial hospital expenditures, educational attainment and lost earnings as well as to estimate potential savings associated with reductions in preterm birth. The retrospective, population-based analysis used vital statistics and population demographics from Hamilton County, Ohio, USA, in 2012. We adjusted previously reported, mean initial hospital cost estimates (stratified by each week of gestation) to 2012 dollars using national cost-to-charge ratios. Next, we calculated excess costs attributable to prematurity and potential hospital cost savings, which could be realized by prolonging each preterm pregnancy by a single week of gestation. Using reported associations among preterm birth, educational attainment and adult earnings, we developed generalizable formulas to calculate lost academic degrees and lost income estimates attributable to preterm birth. The formulas generated estimates based on local population demographics. The annual initial hospital cost associated with 1444 preterm infants was estimated at $93 million. In addition, over 9000 fewer college degrees and over $300 million in lost annual earnings were attributed to local adults who were born preterm. Prolonging each preterm birth by 1 week could potentially reduce initial hospital expenditures by over $25 million. Additional potential savings could be realized as healthier infants attain higher levels of education and earnings as adults. The generalizable methods developed for estimating the economic impact of preterm birth at the community level can be used by any community in which vital statistics and population demographics are available. Cost estimates can serve to rally support for local stakeholder investment in developing strategies for preterm birth intervention leading to improved pregnancy outcomes. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier

  2. Estimating productivity costs using the friction cost approach in practice: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kigozi, Jesse; Jowett, Sue; Lewis, Martyn; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

    2016-01-01

    The choice of the most appropriate approach to valuing productivity loss has received much debate in the literature. The friction cost approach has been proposed as a more appropriate alternative to the human capital approach when valuing productivity loss, although its application remains limited. This study reviews application of the friction cost approach in health economic studies and examines how its use varies in practice across different country settings. A systematic review was performed to identify economic evaluation studies that have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach and published in English from 1996 to 2013. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from studies meeting the inclusion criteria. The search yielded 46 studies from 12 countries. Of these, 28 were from the Netherlands. Thirty-five studies reported the length of friction period used, with only 16 stating explicitly the source of the friction period. Nine studies reported the elasticity correction factor used. The reported friction cost approach methods used to derive productivity costs varied in quality across studies from different countries. Few health economic studies have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach. The estimation and reporting of productivity costs using this method appears to differ in quality by country. The review reveals gaps and lack of clarity in reporting of methods for friction cost evaluation. Generating reporting guidelines and country-specific parameters for the friction cost approach is recommended if increased application and accuracy of the method is to be realized.

  3. Proposed Methodology for Assessing Cost of Synergies between Offshore Renewable Energy and Other Sea Uses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Margheritini, Lucia; Hanssen, Jan Erik; O´Sullivan, Keith

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims at presenting an innovative methodology for identifying the possible “cost saving synergies” between wave energy and other sea uses. Three case studies will be presented to illustrate the methodology: those all include a hybrid platform of wave and wind (STC with torous WEC, Wave...... Dragon and wind turbine, W2Power) and another (non-energy) sea use. The methodology described in the present study has the value of presenting synergies under an economic prospective. Synergies can be found both in structural, installation and maintenance costs. The CAPEX and OPEX for the energy...

  4. Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spadoni, D. J.

    1983-01-01

    The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

  5. Estimating Drilling Cost and Duration Using Copulas Dependencies Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Al Kindi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of drilling budget and duration is a high-level challenge for oil and gas industry. This is due to the many uncertain activities in the drilling procedure such as material prices, overhead cost, inflation, oil prices, well type, and depth of drilling. Therefore, it is essential to consider all these uncertain variables and the nature of relationships between them. This eventually leads into the minimization of the level of uncertainty and yet makes a "good" estimation points for budget and duration given the well type. In this paper, the copula probability theory is used in order to model the dependencies between cost/duration and MRI (mechanical risk index. The MRI is a mathematical computation, which relates various drilling factors such as: water depth, measured depth, true vertical depth in addition to mud weight and horizontal displacement. In general, the value of MRI is utilized as an input for the drilling cost and duration estimations. Therefore, modeling the uncertain dependencies between MRI and both cost and duration using copulas is important. The cost and duration estimates for each well were extracted from the copula dependency model where research study simulate over 10,000 scenarios. These new estimates were later compared to the actual data in order to validate the performance of the procedure. Most of the wells show moderate - weak relationship of MRI dependence, which means that the variation in these wells can be related to MRI but to the extent that it is not the primary source.

  6. US-Based Drug Cost Parameter Estimation for Economic Evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Joseph F; Meek, Patrick D; Rosenberg, Marjorie A

    2015-07-01

    In the United States, more than 10% of national health expenditures are for prescription drugs. Assessing drug costs in US economic evaluation studies is not consistent, as the true acquisition cost of a drug is not known by decision modelers. Current US practice focuses on identifying one reasonable drug cost and imposing some distributional assumption to assess uncertainty. We propose a set of Rules based on current pharmacy practice that account for the heterogeneity of drug product costs. The set of products derived from our Rules, and their associated costs, form an empirical distribution that can be used for more realistic sensitivity analyses and create transparency in drug cost parameter computation. The Rules specify an algorithmic process to select clinically equivalent drug products that reduce pill burden, use an appropriate package size, and assume uniform weighting of substitutable products. Three diverse examples show derived empirical distributions and are compared with previously reported cost estimates. The shapes of the empirical distributions among the 3 drugs differ dramatically, including multiple modes and different variation. Previously published estimates differed from the means of the empirical distributions. Published ranges for sensitivity analyses did not cover the ranges of the empirical distributions. In one example using lisinopril, the empirical mean cost of substitutable products was $444 (range = $23-$953) as compared with a published estimate of $305 (range = $51-$523). Our Rules create a simple and transparent approach to creating cost estimates of drug products and assessing their variability. The approach is easily modified to include a subset of, or different weighting for, substitutable products. The derived empirical distribution is easily incorporated into 1-way or probabilistic sensitivity analyses. © The Author(s) 2014.

  7. Fuel Consumption Estimation System and Method with Lower Cost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Lun Lo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a fuel consumption estimation system and method with lower cost. On-board units can report vehicle speed, and user devices can send fuel information to a data analysis server. Then the data analysis server can use the proposed fuel consumption estimation method to estimate the fuel consumption based on driver behaviours without fuel sensors for cost savings. The proposed fuel consumption estimation method is designed based on a genetic algorithm which can generate gene sequences and use crossover and mutation for retrieving an adaptable gene sequence. The adaptable gene sequence can be applied as the set of fuel consumption in accordance with the pattern of driver behaviour. The practical experimental results indicated that the accuracy of the proposed fuel consumption estimation method was about 95.87%.

  8. Assessment of compliance with regulatory requirements for a best estimate methodology for evaluation of ECCS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Un Chul; Jang, Jin Wook; Lim, Ho Gon; Jeong, Ik [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Sim, Suk Ku [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2000-03-15

    Best estimate methodology for evaluation of ECCS proposed by KEPCO(KREM) os using thermal-hydraulic best-estimate code and the topical report for the methodology is described that it meets the regulatory requirement of USNRC regulatory guide. In this research the assessment of compliance with regulatory guide. In this research the assessment of compliance with regulatory requirements for the methodology is performed. The state of licensing procedure of other countries and best-estimate evaluation methodologies of Europe is also investigated, The applicability of models and propriety of procedure of uncertainty analysis of KREM are appraised and compliance with USNRC regulatory guide is assessed.

  9. The Estimation and Inclusion of Presenteeism Costs in Applied Economic Evaluation: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kigozi, Jesse; Jowett, Sue; Lewis, Martyn; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

    2017-03-01

    Given the significant costs of reduced productivity (presenteeism) in comparison to absenteeism, and overall societal costs, presenteeism has a potentially important role to play in economic evaluations. However, these costs are often excluded. The objective of this study is to review applied cost of illness studies and economic evaluations to identify valuation methods used for, and impact of including presenteeism costs in practice. A structured systematic review was carried out to explore (i) the extent to which presenteeism has been applied in cost of illness studies and economic evaluations and (ii) the overall impact of including presenteeism on overall costs and outcomes. Potential articles were identified by searching Medline, PsycINFO and NHS EED databases. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from economic evaluations and cost of illness studies incorporating presenteeism costs. A total of 28 studies were included in the systematic review which also demonstrated that presenteeism costs are rarely included in full economic evaluations. Estimation and monetisation methods differed between the instruments. The impact of disease on presenteeism whilst in paid work is high. The potential impact of presenteeism costs needs to be highlighted and greater consideration should be given to including these in economic evaluations and cost of illness studies. The importance of including presenteeism costs when conducting economic evaluation from a societal perspective should be emphasised in national economic guidelines and more methodological work is required to improve the practical application of presenteeism instruments to generate productivity cost estimates. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A Methodology of Health Effects Estimation from Air Pollution in Large Asian Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keiko Hirota

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase of health effects caused by air pollution seems to be a growing concern in Asian cities with increasing motorization. This paper discusses methods of estimating the health effects of air pollution in large Asian cities. Due to the absence of statistical data in Asia, this paper carefully chooses the methodology using data of the Japanese compensation system. A basic idea of health effects will be captured from simple indicators, such as population and air quality, in a correlation model. This correlation model enables more estimation results of respiratory mortality caused by air pollution to be yielded than by using the relative model. The correlation model could be an alternative method to estimate mortality besides the relative risk model since the results of the correlation model are comparable with those of the relative model by city and by time series. The classification of respiratory diseases is not known from the statistical yearbooks in many countries. Estimation results could support policy decision-making with respect to public health in a cost-effective way.

  11. The Software Cost Estimation Method Based on Fuzzy Ontology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plecka Przemysław

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the course of sales process of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP Systems, it turns out that the standard system must be extended or changed (modified according to specific customer’s requirements. Therefore, suppliers face the problem of determining the cost of additional works. Most methods of cost estimation bring satisfactory results only at the stage of pre-implementation analysis. However, suppliers need to know the estimated cost as early as at the stage of trade talks. During contract negotiations, they expect not only the information about the costs of works, but also about the risk of exceeding these costs or about the margin of safety. One method that gives more accurate results at the stage of trade talks is the method based on the ontology of implementation costs. This paper proposes modification of the method involving the use of fuzzy attributes, classes, instances and relations in the ontology. The result provides not only the information about the value of work, but also about the minimum and maximum expected cost, and the most likely range of costs. This solution allows suppliers to effectively negotiate the contract and increase the chances of successful completion of the project.

  12. Annual national direct and indirect cost estimates of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hillegonda Maria Dutilh Novaes

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil. METHODS: This cost description study used a "gross-costing" methodology and adopted the health system and societal perspectives. The estimates were grouped into sets of procedures performed in phases of cervical cancer care: the screening, diagnosis and treatment of precancerous lesions and the treatment of cervical cancer. The costs were estimated for the public and private health systems, using data from national health information systems, population surveys, and literature reviews. The cost estimates are presented in 2006 USD. RESULTS: From the societal perspective, the estimated total costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer amounted to USD $1,321,683,034, which was categorized as follows: procedures (USD $213,199,490, visits (USD $325,509,842, transportation (USD $106,521,537 and productivity losses (USD $676,452,166. Indirect costs represented 51% of the total costs, followed by direct medical costs (visits and procedures at 41% and direct non-medical costs (transportation at 8%. The public system represented 46% of the total costs, and the private system represented 54%. CONCLUSION: Our national cost estimates of cervical cancer prevention and treatment, indicating the economic importance of cervical cancer screening and care, will be useful in monitoring the effect of the HPV vaccine introduction and are of interest in research and health care management.

  13. Annual national direct and indirect cost estimates of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh; Itria, Alexander; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Sartori, Ana Marli Christovam; Rama, Cristina Helena; Soárez, Patrícia Coelho de

    2015-04-01

    To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil. This cost description study used a "gross-costing" methodology and adopted the health system and societal perspectives. The estimates were grouped into sets of procedures performed in phases of cervical cancer care: the screening, diagnosis and treatment of precancerous lesions and the treatment of cervical cancer. The costs were estimated for the public and private health systems, using data from national health information systems, population surveys, and literature reviews. The cost estimates are presented in 2006 USD. From the societal perspective, the estimated total costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer amounted to USD $1,321,683,034, which was categorized as follows: procedures (USD $213,199,490), visits (USD $325,509,842), transportation (USD $106,521,537) and productivity losses (USD $676,452,166). Indirect costs represented 51% of the total costs, followed by direct medical costs (visits and procedures) at 41% and direct non-medical costs (transportation) at 8%. The public system represented 46% of the total costs, and the private system represented 54%. Our national cost estimates of cervical cancer prevention and treatment, indicating the economic importance of cervical cancer screening and care, will be useful in monitoring the effect of the HPV vaccine introduction and are of interest in research and health care management.

  14. Valuing productivity costs in a changing macroeconomic environment: the estimation of colorectal cancer productivity costs using the friction cost approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanly, Paul; Koopmanschap, Marc; Sharp, Linda

    2016-06-01

    The friction cost approach (FCA) has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach for productivity cost valuation. However, FCA estimates are context dependent and influenced by extant macroeconomic conditions. We applied the FCA to estimate colorectal cancer labor productivity costs and assessed the impact of a changing macroeconomic environment on these estimates. Data from colorectal cancer survivors (n = 159) derived from a postal survey undertaken in Ireland March 2010 to January 2011 were combined with national wage data, population-level survival data, and occupation-specific friction periods to calculate temporary and permanent disability, and premature mortality costs using the FCA. The effects of changing labor market conditions between 2006 and 2013 on the friction period were modeled in scenario analyses. Costs were valued in 2008 euros. In the base-case, the total FCA per-person productivity cost for incident colorectal cancer patients of working age at diagnosis was €8543. In scenario 1 (a 2.2 % increase in unemployment), the fall in the friction period caused total productivity costs to decrease by up to 18 % compared to base-case estimates. In scenario 2 (a 9.2 % increase in unemployment), the largest decrease in productivity cost was up to 65 %. Adjusting for the vacancy rate reduced the effect of unemployment on the cost results. The friction period used in calculating labor productivity costs greatly affects the derived estimates; this friction period requires reassessment following changes in labor market conditions. The influence of changes in macroeconomic conditions on FCA-derived cost estimates may be substantial.

  15. ExternE transport methodology for external cost evaluation of air pollution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, S. S.; Berkowicz, R.; Brandt, J.

    The report describes how the human exposure estimates based on NERI's human exposure modelling system (AirGIS) can improve the Danish data used for exposure factors in the ExternE Transport methodology. Initially, a brief description of the ExternE Tranport methodology is given and it is summarised...

  16. Fusion reactor design studies: standard accounts for cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulte, S.C.; Willke, T.L.; Young, J.R.

    1978-05-01

    The fusion reactor design studies--standard accounts for cost estimates provides a common format from which to assess the economic character of magnetically confined fusion reactor design concepts. The format will aid designers in the preparation of design concept costs estimates and also provide policymakers with a tool to assist in appraising which design concept may be economically promising. The format sets forth a categorization and accounting procedure to be used when estimating fusion reactor busbar energy cost that can be easily and consistently applied. Reasons for developing the procedure, explanations of the procedure, justifications for assumptions made in the procedure, and the applicability of the procedure are described in this document. Adherence to the format when evaluating prospective fusion reactor design concepts will result in the identification of the more promising design concepts thus enabling the fusion power alternatives with better economic potential to be quickly and efficiently developed.

  17. Estimation of cellular manufacturing cost components using simulation and activity-based costing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Savory

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available It can be difficult estimating all of the cost components that are attributed to a machined part.  This problem is more pronounced when a factory uses group technology manufacturing cells as opposed to a functional or process layout of a job shop.  This paper describes how activity-based costing (ABC concepts can be integrated into a discrete-event simulation model of a U-shaped manufacturing cell producing a part family with four members.  The simulation model generates detailed Bills of Activity for each part type and includes specific information about the cost drivers and cost pools.  The enhanced model output can be used for cost estimation and analysis, manufacturing cell design, part scheduling and other manufacturing decision processes that involve economic considerations. Although the scope of this effort is restricted to a small scale manufacturing cell, the costing concepts have general applicability to manufacturing operations at all levels.

  18. Estimating the Cost of Care for Emergency Department Syncope Patients: Comparison of Three Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A. Probst

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: We sought to compare three hospital cost-estimation models for patients undergoing evaluation for unexplained syncope using hospital cost data. Developing such a model would allow researchers to assess the value of novel clinical algorithms for syncope management. Methods: We collected complete health services data, including disposition, testing, and length of stay (LOS, on 67 adult patients (age 60 years and older who presented to the emergency department (ED with syncope at a single hospital. Patients were excluded if a serious medical condition was identified. We created three hospital cost-estimation models to estimate facility costs: V1, unadjusted Medicare payments for observation and/or hospital admission; V2: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in calendar days; and V3: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in hours. Total hospital costs included unadjusted Medicare payments for diagnostic testing and estimated facility costs. We plotted these estimates against actual cost data from the hospital finance department, and performed correlation and regression analyses. Results: Of the three models, V3 consistently outperformed the others with regard to correlation and goodness of fit. The Pearson correlation coefficient for V3 was 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81, 0.92 with an R-square value of 0.77 and a linear regression coefficient of 0.87 (95% CI 0.76, 0.99. Conclusion: Using basic health services data, it is possible to accurately estimate hospital costs for older adults undergoing a hospital-based evaluation for unexplained syncope. This methodology could help assess the potential economic impact of implementing novel clinical algorithms for ED syncope. [West J Emerg Med. 2017;18(2253-257.

  19. Estimating Production Cost While Linking Combat Systems and Ship Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    Meverden, USCG; CAPT Brad Fabling , USCG; Mr. Geoffrey Pawlowski, NAVSEA/SPAWAR for providing OPV cost data necessary for the analysis in this thesis...Mathematical Theory of Discrete Systems provides an early basis for the conceptualization of SE driven by a model-based framework (Estefan, 2008). MBSE...developed a unit- theory learning curve from the four data points, and we used this learning curve to estimate costs for ships beyond a four-ship class

  20. Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Linking the BBN to Existing Cost Estimation Models 38 3.8 Mapping BBN Outputs to the COCOMO Inputs 38 3.9 Monte Carlo Simulation in the Cost...been particularly helpful at various stages of our research, including Michael Cullen , Rob Flowe, Jim Judy and Keith Miller. The same is so for Adam...The method described in this report synthesizes scenario building, Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modeling, and Monte Carlo simulation into an

  1. Estimating the mental health costs of racial discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanuel Elias

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD. However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimated indirect non-health related productivity costs. In this study, we estimate the burden of disease due to exposure to racial discrimination and measure the cost of this exposure. Methods Using prevalence surveys and data on the association of racial discrimination with health outcomes from a global meta-analysis, we apply a cost of illness method to measure the impact of racial discrimination. This estimate indicates the direct health cost attributable to racial discrimination and we convert the estimates to monetary values based on conventional parameters. Results Racial discrimination costs the Australian economy 235,452 in disability adjusted life years lost, equivalent to $37.9 billion per annum, roughly 3.02% of annual gross domestic product (GDP over 2001–11, indicating a sizeable loss for the economy. Conclusion Substantial cost is incurred due to increased prevalence of racial discrimination as a result of its association with negative health outcomes (e.g. depression, anxiety and PTSD. This implies that potentially significant cost savings can be made through measures that target racial discrimination. Our research contributes to the debate on the social impact of racial discrimination, with implications for policies and efforts addressing it.

  2. Estimating the mental health costs of racial discrimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, Amanuel; Paradies, Yin

    2016-11-29

    Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimated indirect non-health related productivity costs. In this study, we estimate the burden of disease due to exposure to racial discrimination and measure the cost of this exposure. Using prevalence surveys and data on the association of racial discrimination with health outcomes from a global meta-analysis, we apply a cost of illness method to measure the impact of racial discrimination. This estimate indicates the direct health cost attributable to racial discrimination and we convert the estimates to monetary values based on conventional parameters. Racial discrimination costs the Australian economy 235,452 in disability adjusted life years lost, equivalent to $37.9 billion per annum, roughly 3.02% of annual gross domestic product (GDP) over 2001-11, indicating a sizeable loss for the economy. Substantial cost is incurred due to increased prevalence of racial discrimination as a result of its association with negative health outcomes (e.g. depression, anxiety and PTSD). This implies that potentially significant cost savings can be made through measures that target racial discrimination. Our research contributes to the debate on the social impact of racial discrimination, with implications for policies and efforts addressing it.

  3. Methodology for a bounding estimate of activation source-term.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culp, Todd

    2013-02-01

    Sandia National Laboratories' Z-Machine is the world's most powerful electrical device, and experiments have been conducted that make it the world's most powerful radiation source. Because Z-Machine is used for research, an assortment of materials can be placed into the machine; these materials can be subjected to a range of nuclear reactions, producing an assortment of activation products. A methodology was developed to provide a systematic approach to evaluate different materials to be introduced into the machine as wire arrays. This methodology is based on experiment specific characteristics, physical characteristics of specific radionuclides, and experience with Z-Machine. This provides a starting point for bounding calculations of radionuclide source-term that can be used for work planning, development of work controls, and evaluating materials for introduction into the machine.

  4. Estimating the Costs of Educating Handicapped Children: A Resource-Cost Model Approach. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, William T.

    The research described in this report attempts to estimate the costs of providing an appropriate education to all school-aged handicapped children by 1980-81. The study begins by addressing the aspects of special education that will help to predict future costs--patterns of growth to the present, legal and political mandates, the nature of various…

  5. Increasing the competitiveness of maintenance contract rates by using an alternative methodology for the calculation of average vehicle maintenance costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Carstens

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Companies tend to outsource transport to fleet management companies to increase efficiencies if transport is a non-core activity. The provision of fleet management services on contract introduces a certain amount of financial risk to the fleet management company, specifically fixed rate maintenance contracts. The quoted rate needs to be sufficient and also competitive in the market. Currently the quoted maintenance rates are based on the maintenance specifications of the manufacturer and the risk management approach of the fleet management company. This is usually reflected in a contingency that is included in the quoted maintenance rate. An alternative methodology for calculating the average maintenance cost for a vehicle fleet is proposed based on the actual maintenance expenditures of the vehicles and accepted statistical techniques. The proposed methodology results in accurate estimates (and associated confidence limits of the true average maintenance cost and can beused as a basis for the maintenance quote.

  6. Robust guaranteed-cost adaptive quantum phase estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Shibdas; Berry, Dominic W.; Petersen, Ian R.; Huntington, Elanor H.

    2017-05-01

    Quantum parameter estimation plays a key role in many fields like quantum computation, communication, and metrology. Optimal estimation allows one to achieve the most precise parameter estimates, but requires accurate knowledge of the model. Any inevitable uncertainty in the model parameters may heavily degrade the quality of the estimate. It is therefore desired to make the estimation process robust to such uncertainties. Robust estimation was previously studied for a varying phase, where the goal was to estimate the phase at some time in the past, using the measurement results from both before and after that time within a fixed time interval up to current time. Here, we consider a robust guaranteed-cost filter yielding robust estimates of a varying phase in real time, where the current phase is estimated using only past measurements. Our filter minimizes the largest (worst-case) variance in the allowable range of the uncertain model parameter(s) and this determines its guaranteed cost. It outperforms in the worst case the optimal Kalman filter designed for the model with no uncertainty, which corresponds to the center of the possible range of the uncertain parameter(s). Moreover, unlike the Kalman filter, our filter in the worst case always performs better than the best achievable variance for heterodyne measurements, which we consider as the tolerable threshold for our system. Furthermore, we consider effective quantum efficiency and effective noise power, and show that our filter provides the best results by these measures in the worst case.

  7. Applying risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E) analysis to hospitals: estimating the costs and consequences of variation in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnon, Jonathan; Caffrey, Orla; Pham, Clarabelle; Grieve, Richard; Ben-Tovim, David; Hakendorf, Paul; Crotty, Maria

    2013-06-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis is well established for pharmaceuticals and medical technologies but not for evaluating variations in clinical practice. This paper describes a novel methodology--risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E)--that facilitates the comparative evaluation of applied clinical practice processes. In this application, risk adjustment is undertaken with a multivariate matching algorithm that balances the baseline characteristics of patients attending different settings (e.g., hospitals). Linked, routinely collected data are used to analyse patient-level costs and outcomes over a 2-year period, as well as to extrapolate costs and survival over patient lifetimes. The study reports the relative cost-effectiveness of alternative forms of clinical practice, including a full representation of the statistical uncertainty around the mean estimates. The methodology is illustrated by a case study that evaluates the relative cost-effectiveness of services for patients presenting with acute chest pain across the four main public hospitals in South Australia. The evaluation finds that services provided at two hospitals were dominated, and of the remaining services, the more effective hospital gained life years at a low mean additional cost and had an 80% probability of being the most cost-effective hospital at realistic cost-effectiveness thresholds. Potential determinants of the estimated variation in costs and effects were identified, although more detailed analyses to identify specific areas of variation in clinical practice are required to inform improvements at the less cost-effective institutions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Activity-based costing methodology as tool for costing in hematopathology laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gujral, Sumeet; Dongre, Kanchan; Bhindare, Sonal; Subramanian, P G; Narayan, Hkv; Mahajan, Asim; Batura, Rekha; Hingnekar, Chitra; Chabbria, Meenu; Nair, C N

    2010-01-01

    Cost analysis in laboratories represents a necessary phase in their scientific progression. To calculate indirect cost and thus total cost per sample of various tests at Hematopathology laboratory (HPL). Activity-based costing (ABC) method is used to calculate per cost test of the hematopathology laboratory. Information is collected from registers, purchase orders, annual maintenance contracts (AMCs), payrolls, account books, hospital bills and registers along with informal interviews with hospital staff. Cost per test decreases as total number of samples increases. Maximum annual expense at the HPL is on reagents and consumables followed by manpower. Cost per test is higher for specialized tests which interpret morphological or flow data and are done by a pathologist. Despite several limitations and assumptions, this was an attempt to understand how the resources are consumed in a large size government-run laboratory. The rate structure needs to be revised for most of the tests, mainly for complete blood counts (CBC), bone marrow examination, coagulation tests and Immunophenotyping. This costing exercise is laboratory specific and each laboratory needs to do its own costing. Such an exercise may help a laboratory redesign its costing structure or at least understand the economics involved in the laboratory management.

  9. Uncertainties in Early Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A case study on biorefinery design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurkan eSin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early stage design is a challenging task. This is especially important in biorefinery research, where available information and experiences with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs (a Bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data is available and (b the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data is not available. Four well-known models for early stage cost estimation are reviewed an analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision making under uncertainties. One of the results using an order-of-magnitude estimate shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with economic risks of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a due to uncertainties in cost estimations, respectively.

  10. Cost Implications of Hardware Manpower Balance. Phase II - Unit Sustainment Manpower cost Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-06-01

    developing the BCE, _-11hou(3, 6,chei n- lytical groups may actually develop the cr±ai. .r of the Comptroller of the Army COCA ), Cost An,,.ysc~ .crcoa...costs in Section IV since they are applicable only to a limited number of positions or are geographic-dependent (e.g., COLA ). Once all of the above...costs (CE, CSR B ) on the tables. The tables display the data used to produce a total annual unit manpower cost (TCo) for each occupation listed. The

  11. Is law enforcement of drug-impaired driving cost-efficient? An explorative study of a methodology for cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veisten, Knut; Houwing, Sjoerd; Mathijssen, M P M René; Akhtar, Juned

    2013-03-01

    Road users driving under the influence of psychoactive substances may be at much higher relative risk (RR) in road traffic than the average driver. Legislation banning blood alcohol concentrations above certain threshold levels combined with roadside breath-testing of alcohol have been in lieu for decades in many countries, but new legislation and testing of drivers for drug use have recently been implemented in some countries. In this article we present a methodology for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of increased law enforcement of roadside drug screening. This is an analysis of the profitability for society, where costs of control are weighed against the reduction in injuries expected from fewer drugged drivers on the roads. We specify assumptions regarding costs and the effect of the specificity of the drug screening device, and quantify a deterrence effect related to sensitivity of the device yielding the benefit estimates. Three European countries with different current enforcement levels were studied, yielding benefit-cost ratios in the approximate range of 0.5-5 for a tripling of current levels of enforcement, with costs of about 4000 EUR per convicted and in the range of 1.5 and 13 million EUR per prevented fatality. The applied methodology for CBA has involved a simplistic behavioural response to enforcement increase and control efficiency. Although this methodology should be developed further, it is clearly indicated that the cost-efficiency of increased law enforcement of drug driving offences is dependent on the baseline situation of drug-use in traffic and on the current level of enforcement, as well as the RR and prevalence of drugs in road traffic. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Polyfactorial corruption index in the Russian regions: methodology of estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elina L. Sidorenko

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective to summarize criminological social and economic indicators of development of the Russian Federation subjects to identify and assess the hidden system dependencies between social indicators and levels of corruption to define the links between individual indicators and to develop the methodology of anticorruption ranking of the regions. Methods comparison analysis synthesis mathematical modeling correlation comparisons and extrapolation. Results in the work the author describes the methodology of the complex analysis of corruption in the Russian Federation subjects and elaborates forecasts for its development short term and medium term. Scientific novelty for the first time in domestic criminology the algorithm is proposed of studying and forecasting regional corruption on the basis of polyfactorial analysis of criminological social and political indicators. For profound and comprehensive study of the regional aspects of corruption a model was developed to monitor and forecast on the basis of measuring the polyfactorial corruption index PCI. PCI consists of two groups of parameters corruption potential of the region of the country CPR and corruption risk in the region CRR. Practical significance the research results can be used in the process of developing regional strategies of corruption counteraction as well as in adjustment of the existing methods of corruption prevention.

  13. PRAGMATICS OF USING A MODIFIED CAPM MODEL FOR ESTIMATING COST OF EQUITY ON EMERGING MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitaliy Semenyuk

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the work is to forming pragmatic recommendations for the development and implementation the modified CAPM model in the process of estimating the equity value on emerging markets. Original CAPM model allows estimating the cost of equity on the developed capital markets. At the same time it requires the information received on the market data basis. But, as show recent empirical research, the classical model does not always produce acceptable results of the equity estimation. In addition, CAPM model in its classical form can’t be used to estimate the cost of equity for countries with emerging markets. This is due with lower efficiency in emerging markets, with lower level of liquidity and capitalization, which makes the information obtained from these markets not entirely reliable. Therefore in practice are increasingly using different modification CAPM models, that allow consider for more specific factors which affect the cost of equity. These factors, which are not considered in the classical CAPM model, include the size of the corporation and country risk. The first factor is actual for developed and emerging markets and needed to account during the equity estimation and modification the CAPM model. Country risk is associated with differences and peculiarities of the economies different countries and in the first place should be taken into account when estimating the cost of equity in emerging capital markets, which are considered by investors as more risky for investment. This factor should also be taken into account in estimating the cost of equity. Methodology In the process of constructing a modified CAPM model, theoretical and methodological provisions were used, which are set out in the work R. Banz, G. Bekaert, M. Goedhart, R. Grabowski, R. Grinold, D. Vessels, A. Damodaran, M. Dempsey, J. Zhang, R. Ibbotson, P. Kaplan, T. Koller, K. Kroner, L. Kruschwitz, M. Long, A. Lofler, G. Mandl, M. Miller, F. Modilyani, K. Nunes, D

  14. Estimating the harms and costs of cannabis-attributable collisions in the Canadian provinces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wettlaufer, Ashley; Florica, Roxana O; Asbridge, Mark; Beirness, Douglas; Brubacher, Jeffrey; Callaghan, Russell; Fischer, Benedikt; Gmel, Gerrit; Imtiaz, Sameer; Mann, Robert E; McKiernan, Anna; Rehm, Jürgen

    2017-04-01

    In 2012, 10% of Canadians used cannabis and just under half of those who use cannabis were estimated to have driven under the influence of cannabis. Substantial evidence has accumulated to indicate that driving after cannabis use increases collision risk significantly; however, little is known about the extent and costs associated with cannabis-related traffic collisions. This study quantifies the costs of cannabis-related traffic collisions in the Canadian provinces. Province and age specific cannabis-attributable fractions (CAFs) were calculated for traffic collisions of varying severity. The CAFs were applied to traffic collision data in order to estimate the total number of persons involved in cannabis-attributable fatal, injury and property damage only collisions. Social cost values, based on willingness-to-pay and direct costs, were applied to estimate the costs associated with cannabis-related traffic collisions. The 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Monte Carlo methodology. Cannabis-attributable traffic collisions were estimated to have caused 75 deaths (95% CI: 0-213), 4407 injuries (95% CI: 20-11,549) and 7794 people (95% CI: 3107-13,086) were involved in property damage only collisions in Canada in 2012, totalling $1,094,972,062 (95% CI: 37,069,392-2,934,108,175) with costs being highest among younger people. The cannabis-attributable driving harms and costs are substantial. The harm and cost of cannabis-related collisions is an important factor to consider as Canada looks to legalize and regulate the sale of cannabis. This analysis provides evidence to help inform Canadian policy to reduce the human and economic costs of drug-impaired driving. Copyright © 2017 Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Estimating the extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minh, Hoang Van; Giang, Kim Bao; Liem, Nguyen Thanh; Palmer, Michael; Thao, Nguyen Phuong; Duong, Le Bach

    2015-01-01

    Disability is shown to be both a cause and a consequence of poverty. However, relatively little research has investigated the economic cost of living with a disability. This study reports the results of a study on the extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam in 2011. The study was carried out in eight cities/provinces in Vietnam, including Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh cities (two major metropolitan in Vietnam) and six provinces from each of the six socio-economic regions in Vietnam. Costs are estimated using the standard of living approach whereby the difference in incomes between people with disability and those without disability for a given standard of living serves as a proxy for the cost of living with disability. The extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam accounted for about 8.8-9.5% of annual household income, or valued about US$200-218. Communication difficulty was shown to result in highest additional cost of living with disability and self-care difficulty was shown to lead to the lowest levels of extra of living cost. The extra cost of living with disability increased as people had more severe impairment. Interventions to promote the economic security of livelihood for people with disabilities are needed.

  16. Review Article: Project cost estimation techniques used by most ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The research population used was restricted to formally registered businesses found at the time in the register of the Construction Industry Development Board ... that South African emerging contractors showed inadequacies and variations in cost concepts, scheduling tools, risk management and tender price estimation.

  17. An Application of Data Mining Algorithms for Shipbuilding Cost Estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaluzny, B.L.; Barbici, S.; Berg, G.; Chiomento, R.; Derpanis,D.; Jonsson, U.; Shaw, R.H.A.D.; Smit, M.C.; Ramaroson, F.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a novel application of known data mining algorithms to the problem of estimating the cost of ship development and construction. The work is a product of North Atlantic Treaty Organization Research and Technology Organization Systems Analysis and Studies 076 Task Group “NATO

  18. Stochastic Estimation of Cost Frontier: Evidence from Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan

    2012-01-01

    In the literature of higher education cost function study, enough knowledge is created in the area of economy scale in the context of developed countries but the knowledge of input demand is lacking. On the other hand, empirical knowledge in the context of developing countries is very meagre. The paper fills up the knowledge gap, estimating a…

  19. Cost Estimation for Cross-organizational ERP Projects: Research Perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daneva, Maia; Bieman, J.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    There are many methods for estimating size, effort, schedule and other cost aspects of IS projects, but only one specifically developed for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) [67] and none for simultaneous, interdependent ERP projects in a cross-organizational context. The objective of this paper is

  20. A Semantics-Based Approach to Construction Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknam, Mehrdad

    2015-01-01

    A construction project requires collaboration of different organizations such as owner, designer, contractor, and resource suppliers. These organizations need to exchange information to improve their teamwork. Understanding the information created in other organizations requires specialized human resources. Construction cost estimating is one of…

  1. An Instructional Cost Estimation Model for the XYZ Community College.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonson, William F.

    An enrollment-driven model for estimating instructional costs is presented in this paper as developed by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE). After stating the principles of the WICHE planning system (i.e., various categories of data are gathered, segmented, and then cross-tabulated against one another to yield certain…

  2. Estimating the avoided fuel-reatment costs of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey H. Donovan; Thomas C. Brown

    2008-01-01

    Although the importance of wildfire to fire-adapted ecosystems is widely recognized, wildfire management has historically placed less emphasis on the beneficial effects of wildfire. We estimate the avoided fuel treatment cost for 10 ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) stands on the Umatilla National Forest in the Pacific Northwest. Results show that...

  3. A bottom-up approach to estimating cost elements of REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merger, Eduard; Held, Christian; Tennigkeit, Timm; Blomley, Tom

    2012-08-09

    Several previous global REDD+ cost studies have been conducted, demonstrating that payments for maintaining forest carbon stocks have significant potential to be a cost-effective mechanism for climate change mitigation. These studies have mostly followed highly aggregated top-down approaches without estimating the full range of REDD+ costs elements, thus underestimating the actual costs of REDD+. Based on three REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, representing an area of 327,825 ha, this study explicitly adopts a bottom-up approach to data assessment. By estimating opportunity, implementation, transaction and institutional costs of REDD+ we develop a practical and replicable methodological framework to consistently assess REDD+ cost elements. Based on historical land use change patterns, current region-specific economic conditions and carbon stocks, project-specific opportunity costs ranged between US$ -7.8 and 28.8 tCOxxxx for deforestation and forest degradation drivers such as agriculture, fuel wood production, unsustainable timber extraction and pasture expansion. The mean opportunity costs for the three projects ranged between US$ 10.1 - 12.5 tCO2. Implementation costs comprised between 89% and 95% of total project costs (excluding opportunity costs) ranging between US$ 4.5 - 12.2 tCO2 for a period of 30 years. Transaction costs for measurement, reporting, verification (MRV), and other carbon market related compliance costs comprised a minor share, between US$ 0.21 - 1.46 tCO2. Similarly, the institutional costs comprised around 1% of total REDD+ costs in a range of US$ 0.06 - 0.11 tCO2. The use of bottom-up approaches to estimate REDD+ economics by considering regional variations in economic conditions and carbon stocks has been shown to be an appropriate approach to provide policy and decision-makers robust economic information on REDD+. The assessment of opportunity costs is a crucial first step to provide information on the economic baseline situation of

  4. A bottom-up approach to estimating cost elements of REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merger Eduard

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several previous global REDD+ cost studies have been conducted, demonstrating that payments for maintaining forest carbon stocks have significant potential to be a cost-effective mechanism for climate change mitigation. These studies have mostly followed highly aggregated top-down approaches without estimating the full range of REDD+ costs elements, thus underestimating the actual costs of REDD+. Based on three REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, representing an area of 327,825 ha, this study explicitly adopts a bottom-up approach to data assessment. By estimating opportunity, implementation, transaction and institutional costs of REDD+ we develop a practical and replicable methodological framework to consistently assess REDD+ cost elements. Results Based on historical land use change patterns, current region-specific economic conditions and carbon stocks, project-specific opportunity costs ranged between US$ -7.8 and 28.8 tCOxxxx for deforestation and forest degradation drivers such as agriculture, fuel wood production, unsustainable timber extraction and pasture expansion. The mean opportunity costs for the three projects ranged between US$ 10.1 – 12.5 tCO2. Implementation costs comprised between 89% and 95% of total project costs (excluding opportunity costs ranging between US$ 4.5 - 12.2 tCO2 for a period of 30 years. Transaction costs for measurement, reporting, verification (MRV, and other carbon market related compliance costs comprised a minor share, between US$ 0.21 - 1.46 tCO2. Similarly, the institutional costs comprised around 1% of total REDD+ costs in a range of US$ 0.06 – 0.11 tCO2. Conclusions The use of bottom-up approaches to estimate REDD+ economics by considering regional variations in economic conditions and carbon stocks has been shown to be an appropriate approach to provide policy and decision-makers robust economic information on REDD+. The assessment of opportunity costs is a crucial first step to

  5. A Method for Estimating Potential Energy and Cost Savings for Cooling Existing Data Centers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Geet, Otto

    2017-04-24

    NREL has developed a methodology to prioritize which data center cooling systems could be upgraded for better efficiency based on estimated cost savings and economics. The best efficiency results are in cool or dry climates where 'free' economizer or evaporative cooling can provide most of the data center cooling. Locations with a high cost of energy and facilities with high power usage effectiveness (PUE) are also good candidates for data center cooling system upgrades. In one case study of a major cable provider's data centers, most of the sites studied had opportunities for cost-effective cooling system upgrades with payback period of 5 years or less. If the cable provider invested in all opportunities for upgrades with payback periods of less than 15 years, it could save 27% on annual energy costs.

  6. Review of the Palisades pressure vessel accumulated fluence estimate and of the least squares methodology employed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffin, P.J.

    1998-05-01

    This report provides a review of the Palisades submittal to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission requesting endorsement of their accumulated neutron fluence estimates based on a least squares adjustment methodology. This review highlights some minor issues in the applied methodology and provides some recommendations for future work. The overall conclusion is that the Palisades fluence estimation methodology provides a reasonable approach to a {open_quotes}best estimate{close_quotes} of the accumulated pressure vessel neutron fluence and is consistent with the state-of-the-art analysis as detailed in community consensus ASTM standards.

  7. Stand-alone flat-plate photovoltaic power systems: System sizing and life-cycle costing methodology for Federal agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borden, C. S.; Volkmer, K.; Cochrane, E. H.; Lawson, A. C.

    1984-01-01

    A simple methodology to estimate photovoltaic system size and life-cycle costs in stand-alone applications is presented. It is designed to assist engineers at Government agencies in determining the feasibility of using small stand-alone photovoltaic systems to supply ac or dc power to the load. Photovoltaic system design considerations are presented as well as the equations for sizing the flat-plate array and the battery storage to meet the required load. Cost effectiveness of a candidate photovoltaic system is based on comparison with the life-cycle cost of alternative systems. Examples of alternative systems addressed are batteries, diesel generators, the utility grid, and other renewable energy systems.

  8. Estimation of marginal costs at existing waste treatment facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Sanchez, Veronica; Hulgaard, Tore; Hindsgaul, Claus; Riber, Christian; Kamuk, Bettina; Astrup, Thomas F

    2016-04-01

    This investigation aims at providing an improved basis for assessing economic consequences of alternative Solid Waste Management (SWM) strategies for existing waste facilities. A bottom-up methodology was developed to determine marginal costs in existing facilities due to changes in the SWM system, based on the determination of average costs in such waste facilities as function of key facility and waste compositional parameters. The applicability of the method was demonstrated through a case study including two existing Waste-to-Energy (WtE) facilities, one with co-generation of heat and power (CHP) and another with only power generation (Power), affected by diversion strategies of five waste fractions (fibres, plastic, metals, organics and glass), named "target fractions". The study assumed three possible responses to waste diversion in the WtE facilities: (i) biomass was added to maintain a constant thermal load, (ii) Refused-Derived-Fuel (RDF) was included to maintain a constant thermal load, or (iii) no reaction occurred resulting in a reduced waste throughput without full utilization of the facility capacity. Results demonstrated that marginal costs of diversion from WtE were up to eleven times larger than average costs and dependent on the response in the WtE plant. Marginal cost of diversion were between 39 and 287 € Mg(-1) target fraction when biomass was added in a CHP (from 34 to 303 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case), between -2 and 300 € Mg(-1) target fraction when RDF was added in a CHP (from -2 to 294 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case) and between 40 and 303 € Mg(-1) target fraction when no reaction happened in a CHP (from 35 to 296 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case). Although average costs at WtE facilities were highly influenced by energy selling prices, marginal costs were not (provided a response was initiated at the WtE to keep constant the utilized thermal capacity). Failing to systematically

  9. Time-driven activity-based costing to estimate cost of care at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Jordan A; Mistry, Bipin; Hardy, Stephen; Fracchia, Mary Shannon; Hersh, Cheryl; Wentland, Carissa; Vadakekalam, Joseph; Kaplan, Robert; Hartnick, Christopher J

    2017-09-01

    Providing high-value healthcare to patients is increasingly becoming an objective for providers including those at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Measuring value has two components: 1) identify relevant health outcomes and 2) determine relevant treatment costs. Via their inherent structure, multidisciplinary care units consolidate care for complex patients. However, their potential impact on decreasing healthcare costs is less clear. The goal of this study was to estimate the potential cost savings of treating patients with laryngeal clefts at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Retrospective chart review. Time-driven activity-based costing was used to estimate the cost of care for patients with laryngeal cleft seen between 2008 and 2013 at the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary Pediatric Aerodigestive Center. Retrospective chart review was performed to identify clinic utilization by patients as well as patient diet outcomes after treatment. Patients were stratified into neurologically complex and neurologically noncomplex groups. The cost of care for patients requiring surgical intervention was five and three times as expensive of the cost of care for patients not requiring surgery for neurologically noncomplex and complex patients, respectively. Following treatment, 50% and 55% of complex and noncomplex patients returned to normal diet, whereas 83% and 87% of patients experienced improved diets, respectively. Additionally, multidisciplinary team-based care for children with laryngeal clefts potentially achieves 20% to 40% cost savings. These findings demonstrate how time-driven activity-based costing can be used to estimate and compare patient costs in multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. 2c. Laryngoscope, 127:2152-2158, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  10. A REVIEW OF ESTIMATION OF SOFTWARE PRODUCTS DEVELOPMENT COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edin Osmanbegović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modern business and management of business processes, the standardization of procedures allows the creation of added value, increasing competitiveness and success in the business of an organization. Evaluation of the budget for software development is crucial to the success of an IT project, because the inability to make a realistic assessment leads to inadequate project plans, customer dissatisfaction, poor quality of software products, and reduced profits. In order to minimize such situations, making accurate and reliable software cost estimation should be carried out at all stages of the project life cycle. Although hundreds of research articles focusing on the application of different methods of budget estimates of the software product have been published so far, there is no comprehensive review of the current situation or review of research trends in the budget estimates of the software product. This paper aims to create a framework for estimation of costs of development of software products by providing an overview of the most influential researchers, the most influential articles published in the WoS database, the most used keywords for searching the articles, as well as a review of the estimation techniques used in budget estimates of the software product.

  11. Nuclear data evaluation methodology including estimates of covariances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith D.L.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluated nuclear data rather than raw experimental and theoretical information are employed in nuclear applications such as the design of nuclear energy systems. Therefore, the process by which such information is produced and ultimately used is of critical interest to the nuclear science community. This paper provides an overview of various contemporary methods employed to generate evaluated cross sections and related physical quantities such as particle emission angular distributions and energy spectra. The emphasis here is on data associated with neutron induced reaction processes, with consideration of the uncertainties in these data, and on the more recent evaluation methods, e.g., those that are based on stochastic (Monte Carlo techniques. There is no unique way to perform such evaluations, nor are nuclear data evaluators united in their opinions as to which methods are superior to the others in various circumstances. In some cases it is not critical which approaches are used as long as there is consistency and proper use is made of the available physical information. However, in other instances there are definite advantages to using particular methods as opposed to other options. Some of these distinctions are discussed in this paper and suggestions are offered regarding fruitful areas for future research in the development of evaluation methodology.

  12. Periocular basal cell carcinoma: cost of topical immunotherapy versus estimated cost of surgical treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erick Marcet Santiago de Macedo

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to compare the estimated cost of clinical and surgical treatment for basl cell carcinoma of the eyelid. METHODS: This was a pilot study of 12 patients with basal cell carcinoma receiving treatment with 5% imiquimod cream at the ocular plastic surgery center, medical school University of São Paulo (HC-FMUSP, Brazil. The cost of clinical treatment was estimated based on the time of treatment and amount of medication consumed by patients in the home setting. The cost of surgical treatment was estimated by ophthalmologists with experience in reconstructive plastic surgery based on analysis of images of the same patients. Surgeons responded to a questionnaire with four questions about surgical technique, surgical materials required, estimated duration of surgery and type of anesthesia. RESULTS: Immunotherapy lasted from 8 to 12 weeks.All patients reported each coldstored sachet with 5% imiquimod cream lasted 3 days.According to the institution, a box with 12 sachets costs BRL 480.00. Patients required 1.58-3.11 boxes for complete treatment, corresponding to a total cost of BRL 758.401,492.80. Based on image analysis, surgeons evaluated surgery would require 1-3 hours. The estimated cost of surgery room and staff was BRL 263.00, to which the cost of supplies was added. Thus, the total cost of surgical treatment was BRL 272.61-864.82. On the average, immunotherapy was 57,64% more costly than surgical treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Malignant eyelid tumors are a common finding in clinical ophthalmology. Surgery is still the treatment of choice at our institution, but immunotherapy with 5% imiquimod cream may be indicated for patients with multiple lesions or high surgical risk and for patients declining surgery for reasons of fear or esthetic concerns.The ability to estimate costs related to the treatment of malignant eyelid tumors is an important aid in the financial planning of health care institutions. Further

  13. METHODOLOGY RELATED TO ESTIMATION OF INVESTMENT APPEAL OF RURAL SETTLEMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Voshev

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Conditions for production activity vary considerably from region to region, from area to area, from settlement to settlement. In this connection, investors are challenged to choose an optimum site for a new enterprise. To make the decision, investors follow such references as: investment potential and risk level; their interrelation determines investment appeal of a country, region, area, city or rural settlement. At present Russia faces a problem of «black boxes» represented by a lot of rural settlements. No effective and suitable techniques of quantitative estimation of investment potential, rural settlement risks and systems to make the given information accessible for potential investors exist until now.

  14. ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill.

  15. Estimated economic costs of obesity to U.S. business.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, D; Edelsberg, J; Kinsey, K L; Oster, G

    1998-01-01

    To estimate the economic costs of obesity to U.S. business. Standard epidemiologic methods for risk attribution and techniques for ascertaining cost of illness were used to estimate obesity-attributable expenditures on selected employee benefits, including health, life, and disability insurance and paid sick leave by private-sector firms in the U.S. in 1994. Data were obtained from a variety of secondary sources, including the National Health Interview Survey, reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other federal agencies, and the published literature. Attention was focused on employees between the ages of 25 and 64 years who were classified according to body mass index (BMI) as "nonobese" (BMI or = 29 kg/m2). The cost of obesity to U.S. business in 1994 was estimated to total $12.7 billion, including $2.6 billion as a result of mild obesity and $10.1 billion due to moderate to severe obesity. Health insurance expenditures constituted $7.7 billion of the total amount, representing 43% of all spending by U.S. business on coronary heart disease, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, stroke, gallbladder disease, osteoarthritis of the knee, and endometrial cancer. Obesity-attributable business expenditures on paid sick leave, life insurance, and disability insurance amounted to $2.4 billion, $1.8 billion, and $800 million, respectively. The health-related economic cost of obesity to U.S. business is substantial, representing approximately 5% of total medical care costs. Further research is needed to determine the cost-effectiveness of worksite weight management programs and of other efforts to reduce the prevalence of obesity in the U.S. workforce.

  16. Cost of diabetes: comparison of disease-attributable and matched cohort cost estimation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunceli, Ozgur; Wade, Ron; Gu, Tao; Bouchard, Jonathan R; Aagren, Mark; Luo, Wenli

    2010-08-01

    To estimate and compare the annual direct healthcare cost among Type 1 (T1DM) and Type 2 (T2DM) diabetes patients using two cost estimation methods: (1) DM-attributable cost and (2) all cause case-control cost. An administrative claims cohort study using the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRD(R)) identified T1DM and T2DM patients age >or=18 and cost was assessed by summing medical claims for DM (ICD-9-CM codes 250.xx) and pharmacy claims for anti-hyperglycemic agents, and all cause health care cost was assessed for cases and controls, for the calendar year 2007. A total of 12,096 T1DM and 256,245 T2DM cases and matched controls were identified. T1DM and T2DM cases had significantly higher average baseline comorbidities and Deyo-Charleson Comorbidity scores than controls (2.17 vs. 0.23 and 1.62 vs. 0.39, respectively, p cost estimation resulted in a mean annual cost of $6247 for T1DM and $3002 for T2DM in 2007, the mean annual (per patient) all-cause total cost estimation using the case-control method resulted in a difference of $10,837 ($14,060 for cases, vs. $3223 for controls) for T1DM; and $4217 ($8070 for cases, vs. $3853 for controls) for T2DM. The DM-attributable cost method underestimated costs by 42% for T1DM and 29% for T2DM compared to the case-control method. The difference was smaller but still significant (33% for T1DM and 14% for T2DM) when multivariate technique was used. Patients with DM may use a substantial amount of medical and pharmacy services not directly attributable to DM, and attributable cost method may underestimate the total cost of DM. This study has limitations inherent to the retrospective claims data analysis and generalizability of results is limited to those from similar population.

  17. Methodological Framework for World Health Organization Estimates of the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Haagsma, Juanita A; Angulo, Frederick J

    2015-01-01

    The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force to transform...

  18. Methodology proposal for estimation of carbon storage in urban green areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröder, C.; Mancosu, E.; Roerink, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    Methodology proposal for estimation of carbon storage in urban green areas; final report. Subtitle: Final report of task Task 262-5-6 "Carbon sequestration in urban green infrastructure" Project manager Marie Cugny-Seguin. Date: 15-10-2013

  19. Validation of a physical anthropology methodology using mandibles for gender estimation in a Brazilian population

    Science.gov (United States)

    CARVALHO, Suzana Papile Maciel; BRITO, Liz Magalhães; de PAIVA, Luiz Airton Saavedra; BICUDO, Lucilene Arilho Ribeiro; CROSATO, Edgard Michel; de OLIVEIRA, Rogério Nogueira

    2013-01-01

    Validation studies of physical anthropology methods in the different population groups are extremely important, especially in cases in which the population variations may cause problems in the identification of a native individual by the application of norms developed for different communities. Objective This study aimed to estimate the gender of skeletons by application of the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995), previously used in a population sample from Northeast Brazil. Material and Methods The accuracy of this method was assessed for a population from Southeast Brazil and validated by statistical tests. The method used two mandibular measurements, namely the bigonial distance and the mandibular ramus height. The sample was composed of 66 skulls and the method was applied by two examiners. The results were statistically analyzed by the paired t test, logistic discriminant analysis and logistic regression. Results The results demonstrated that the application of the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995) in this population achieved very different outcomes between genders, with 100% for females and only 11% for males, which may be explained by ethnic differences. However, statistical adjustment of measurement data for the population analyzed allowed accuracy of 76.47% for males and 78.13% for females, with the creation of a new discriminant formula. Conclusion It was concluded that methods involving physical anthropology present high rate of accuracy for human identification, easy application, low cost and simplicity; however, the methodologies must be validated for the different populations due to differences in ethnic patterns, which are directly related to the phenotypic aspects. In this specific case, the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995) presented good accuracy and may be used for gender estimation in Brazil in two geographic regions, namely Northeast and Southeast; however, for other regions of the country (North, Central West and South), previous methodological

  20. Validation of a physical anthropology methodology using mandibles for gender estimation in a Brazilian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Suzana Papile Maciel; Brito, Liz Magalhães; Paiva, Luiz Airton Saavedra de; Bicudo, Lucilene Arilho Ribeiro; Crosato, Edgard Michel; Oliveira, Rogério Nogueira de

    2013-01-01

    Validation studies of physical anthropology methods in the different population groups are extremely important, especially in cases in which the population variations may cause problems in the identification of a native individual by the application of norms developed for different communities. This study aimed to estimate the gender of skeletons by application of the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995), previously used in a population sample from Northeast Brazil. The accuracy of this method was assessed for a population from Southeast Brazil and validated by statistical tests. The method used two mandibular measurements, namely the bigonial distance and the mandibular ramus height. The sample was composed of 66 skulls and the method was applied by two examiners. The results were statistically analyzed by the paired t test, logistic discriminant analysis and logistic regression. The results demonstrated that the application of the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995) in this population achieved very different outcomes between genders, with 100% for females and only 11% for males, which may be explained by ethnic differences. However, statistical adjustment of measurement data for the population analyzed allowed accuracy of 76.47% for males and 78.13% for females, with the creation of a new discriminant formula. It was concluded that methods involving physical anthropology present high rate of accuracy for human identification, easy application, low cost and simplicity; however, the methodologies must be validated for the different populations due to differences in ethnic patterns, which are directly related to the phenotypic aspects. In this specific case, the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995) presented good accuracy and may be used for gender estimation in Brazil in two geographic regions, namely Northeast and Southeast; however, for other regions of the country (North, Central West and South), previous methodological adjustment is recommended as demonstrated in this

  1. Validation of a physical anthropology methodology using mandibles for gender estimation in a Brazilian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana Papile Maciel Carvalho

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Validation studies of physical anthropology methods in the different population groups are extremely important, especially in cases in which the population variations may cause problems in the identification of a native individual by the application of norms developed for different communities. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the gender of skeletons by application of the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995, previously used in a population sample from Northeast Brazil. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The accuracy of this method was assessed for a population from Southeast Brazil and validated by statistical tests. The method used two mandibular measurements, namely the bigonial distance and the mandibular ramus height. The sample was composed of 66 skulls and the method was applied by two examiners. The results were statistically analyzed by the paired t test, logistic discriminant analysis and logistic regression. RESULTS: The results demonstrated that the application of the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995 in this population achieved very different outcomes between genders, with 100% for females and only 11% for males, which may be explained by ethnic differences. However, statistical adjustment of measurement data for the population analyzed allowed accuracy of 76.47% for males and 78.13% for females, with the creation of a new discriminant formula. CONCLUSION: It was concluded that methods involving physical anthropology present high rate of accuracy for human identification, easy application, low cost and simplicity; however, the methodologies must be validated for the different populations due to differences in ethnic patterns, which are directly related to the phenotypic aspects. In this specific case, the method of Oliveira, et al. (1995 presented good accuracy and may be used for gender estimation in Brazil in two geographic regions, namely Northeast and Southeast; however, for other regions of the country (North, Central West and South

  2. Comparing methodologies for the allocation of overhead and capital costs to hospital services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Siok Swan; van Ineveld, Bastianus Martinus; Redekop, William Ken; Hakkaart-van Roijen, Leona

    2009-06-01

    Typically, little consideration is given to the allocation of indirect costs (overheads and capital) to hospital services, compared to the allocation of direct costs. Weighted service allocation is believed to provide the most accurate indirect cost estimation, but the method is time consuming. To determine whether hourly rate, inpatient day, and marginal mark-up allocation are reliable alternatives for weighted service allocation. The cost approaches were compared independently for appendectomy, hip replacement, cataract, and stroke in representative general hospitals in The Netherlands for 2005. Hourly rate allocation and inpatient day allocation produce estimates that are not significantly different from weighted service allocation. Hourly rate allocation may be a strong alternative to weighted service allocation for hospital services with a relatively short inpatient stay. The use of inpatient day allocation would likely most closely reflect the indirect cost estimates obtained by the weighted service method.

  3. Lithiasis size estimation variability depending on image technical methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argüelles Salido, Enrique; Aguilar García, Jesús; Lozano-Blasco, Jose María; Subirá Rios, Jorge; Beardo Villar, Pastora; Campoy-Martínez, Pedro; Medina-López, Rafael A

    2013-11-01

    The lithiasic size is a determining factor in selecting the most suitable treatment, surgical or medical. However, the method for obtaining a reliable lithiasic size is not standardized. Our objetives are to determine the differences between the estimated lithiasic sizes shown by plain radiography test and by computerized axial tomography (CT) scan (using different techniques) in relation to the actual size, and to establish which is the ideal type of imaging for this purpose. We present an in vitro model with lithiasis obtained in cooperation with four centers. lithiasis >0.5 cm, intact, and visible via simple radiography. A sample of 245 lithiases was obtained, with 87 rejected as they did not fulfill the inclusion criteria. Initially the three main actual diameters of each lithiasis were measured with a calibrator, then a plain X-ray and a CT scan were taken of the samples to determine the surface size in cm(2) for simple radiography; surface size and volume in cm(3) for CT scan, in bone window and soft tissue (Toshiba Aquillion 64, sections of 0.5 mm, 120 Kv, 250 mA). The tomographic area was calculated by employing the formula recommended by the European Association of Urology and scanner software. The actual, radiographic and tomographic measurements were taken by three different researchers who were unaware of the results obtained by the each other. The statistics program IBM SPSS Statistics(®) 19 was used. Differences were analyzed using the Wilcoxon sign test. The bone window CT scan slightly overestimated the actual lithiasic size (0.12 vs. 0.17 cm(3)), while in soft tissue window the actual volume was practically doubled (0.12 vs. 0.21 cm(3)) (p lithiasis measurements can be estimated, although the craniocaudal diameter measurement will be overestimated. Using soft tissue window gives an overestimated size.

  4. The Medical Cost Attributable to Obesity and Overweight in China: Estimation Based on Longitudinal Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Xuezheng; Pan, Jay

    2016-10-01

    With its rapid economic growth and fast changing lifestyle, China witnessed expansionary prevalence of obesity and overweight during the recent decades. This paper provides the first nationally representative estimate of the medical cost attributable to obesity and overweight in China. We improve upon the traditional estimation methodology (two-part model) by jointly adopting the instrumental variable approach and the panel data methods in order to correct for the potential endogeneity of body size and the individual heterogeneity in medical expenditure. Using longitudinal data from 2000-2009 China Health and Nutrition Surveys, we find that body size has a significant impact on the individual expected medical expenditure and the per capita medical cost attributable to obesity and overweight in a single medical event is estimated to be 6.18 Yuan, or 5.29% of the total personal medical expenditure. This translates to 24.35 billion Yuan annual cost on the national scale, accounting for 2.46% of China's national health care expenditure. The subsample analyses also show that such cost is higher for the urban, women, and better educated people and increases over time. Our results contribute to the literature on the economic impact of obesity in developing countries and bear policy implications on controlling the rising health care costs in China. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Estimating Marginal Healthcare Costs Using Genetic Variants as Instrumental Variables: Mendelian Randomization in Economic Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Padraig; Davey Smith, George; von Hinke, Stephanie; Davies, Neil M; Hollingworth, William

    2016-11-01

    Accurate measurement of the marginal healthcare costs associated with different diseases and health conditions is important, especially for increasingly prevalent conditions such as obesity. However, existing observational study designs cannot identify the causal impact of disease on healthcare costs. This paper explores the possibilities for causal inference offered by Mendelian randomization, a form of instrumental variable analysis that uses genetic variation as a proxy for modifiable risk exposures, to estimate the effect of health conditions on cost. Well-conducted genome-wide association studies provide robust evidence of the associations of genetic variants with health conditions or disease risk factors. The subsequent causal effects of these health conditions on cost can be estimated using genetic variants as instruments for the health conditions. This is because the approximately random allocation of genotypes at conception means that many genetic variants are orthogonal to observable and unobservable confounders. Datasets with linked genotypic and resource use information obtained from electronic medical records or from routinely collected administrative data are now becoming available and will facilitate this form of analysis. We describe some of the methodological issues that arise in this type of analysis, which we illustrate by considering how Mendelian randomization could be used to estimate the causal impact of obesity, a complex trait, on healthcare costs. We describe some of the data sources that could be used for this type of analysis. We conclude by considering the challenges and opportunities offered by Mendelian randomization for economic evaluation.

  6. Cost Estimation of Laser Additive Manufacturing of Stainless Steel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piili, Heidi; Happonen, Ari; Väistö, Tapio; Venkataramanan, Vijaikrishnan; Partanen, Jouni; Salminen, Antti

    Laser additive manufacturing (LAM) is a layer wise fabrication method in which a laser beam melts metallic powder to form solid objects. Although 3D printing has been invented 30 years ago, the industrial use is quite limited whereas the introduction of cheap consumer 3D printers, in recent years, has familiarized the 3D printing. Interest is focused more and more in manufacturing of functional parts. Aim of this study is to define and discuss the current economic opportunities and restrictions of LAM process. Manufacturing costs were studied with different build scenarios each with estimated cost structure by calculated build time and calculating the costs of the machine, material and energy with optimized machine utilization. All manufacturing and time simulations in this study were carried out with a research machine equal to commercial EOS M series equipment. The study shows that the main expense in LAM is the investment cost of the LAM machine, compared to which the relative proportions of the energy and material costs are very low. The manufacturing time per part is the key factor to optimize costs of LAM.

  7. ExternE transport methodology for external cost evaluation of air pollution (DK)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solvang Jensen, S.; Berkowicz, R.; Brandt, J. [National Environmental Research Inst., Dept. of Atmospheric Environment (Denmark); Willumsen, E.; Kristensen, N.B. [COWI (Denmark)

    2004-07-01

    The report describes how the human exposure estimates based on NERI's human exposure modelling system (AiGIS) can improve the Danish data used for exposure factors in the ExternE Transport methodology. Inititally, a brief description of the ExternE Transport methodology is given and it is summarised how the methodology has been applied so far in a previous Danish study. Finally, results of a case study are reported. Exposure factors have been calculated for various urban categories in the Greater Copenhagen Area. (au)

  8. Man power/cost estimation model: Automated planetary projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitchen, L. D.

    1975-01-01

    A manpower/cost estimation model is developed which is based on a detailed level of financial analysis of over 30 million raw data points which are then compacted by more than three orders of magnitude to the level at which the model is applicable. The major parameter of expenditure is manpower (specifically direct labor hours) for all spacecraft subsystem and technical support categories. The resultant model is able to provide a mean absolute error of less than fifteen percent for the eight programs comprising the model data base. The model includes cost saving inheritance factors, broken down in four levels, for estimating follow-on type programs where hardware and design inheritance are evident or expected.

  9. SYDDARTA: new methodology for digitization of deterioration estimation in paintings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granero-Montagud, Luís.; Portalés, Cristina; Pastor-Carbonell, Begoña.; Ribes-Gómez, Emilio; Gutiérrez-Lucas, Antonio; Tornari, Vivi; Papadakis, Vassilis; Groves, Roger M.; Sirmacek, Beril; Bonazza, Alessandra; Ozga, Izabela; Vermeiren, Jan; van der Zanden, Koen; Föster, Matthias; Aswendt, Petra; Borreman, Albert; Ward, Jon D.; Cardoso, António; Aguiar, Luís.; Alves, Filipa; Ropret, Polonca; Luzón-Nogué, José María.; Dietz, Christian

    2013-05-01

    The SYDDARTA project is an on-going European Commission funded initiative under the 7th Framework Programme. Its main objective is the development of a pre-industrial prototype for diagnosing the deterioration of movable art assets. The device combines two different optical techniques for the acquisition of data. On one hand, hyperspectral imaging is implemented by means of electronically tunable filters. On the other, 3D scanning, using structured light projection and capturing is developed. These techniques are integrated in a single piece of equipment, allowing the recording of two optical information streams. Together with multi-sensor data merging and information processing, estimates of artwork deterioration and degradation can be made. In particular, the resulting system will implement two optical channels (3D scanning and short wave infrared (SWIR) hyperspectral imaging) featuring a structured light projector and electronically tunable spectral separators. The system will work in the VIS-NIR range (400-1000nm), and SWIR range (900-2500nm). It will be also portable and user-friendly. Among all possible art work under consideration, Baroque paintings on canvas and wooden panels were selected as the project case studies.

  10. A novel ultrasound methodology for estimating spine mineral density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conversano, Francesco; Franchini, Roberto; Greco, Antonio; Soloperto, Giulia; Chiriacò, Fernanda; Casciaro, Ernesto; Aventaggiato, Matteo; Renna, Maria Daniela; Pisani, Paola; Di Paola, Marco; Grimaldi, Antonella; Quarta, Laura; Quarta, Eugenio; Muratore, Maurizio; Laugier, Pascal; Casciaro, Sergio

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the possible clinical feasibility and accuracy of an innovative ultrasound (US) method for diagnosis of osteoporosis of the spine. A total of 342 female patients (aged 51-60 y) underwent spinal dual X-ray absorptiometry and abdominal echographic scanning of the lumbar spine. Recruited patients were subdivided into a reference database used for US spectral model construction and a study population for repeatability and accuracy evaluation. US images and radiofrequency signals were analyzed via a new fully automatic algorithm that performed a series of spectral and statistical analyses, providing a novel diagnostic parameter called the osteoporosis score (O.S.). If dual X-ray absorptiometry is assumed to be the gold standard reference, the accuracy of O.S.-based diagnoses was 91.1%, with k = 0.859 (p < 0.0001). Significant correlations were also found between O.S.-estimated bone mineral densities and corresponding dual X-ray absorptiometry values, with r(2) values up to 0.73 and a root mean square error of 6.3%-9.3%. The results obtained suggest that the proposed method has the potential for future routine application in US-based diagnosis of osteoporosis. Copyright © 2015 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Application of low-cost methodologies for mobile phone app development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Melvyn; Cheow, Enquan; Ho, Cyrus Sh; Ng, Beng Yeong; Ho, Roger; Cheok, Christopher Cheng Soon

    2014-12-09

    The usage of mobile phones and mobile phone apps in the recent decade has indeed become more prevalent. Previous research has highlighted a method of using just the Internet browser and a text editor to create an app, but this does not eliminate the challenges faced by clinicians. More recently, two methodologies of app development have been shared, but there has not been any disclosures pertaining to the costs involved. In addition, limitations such as the distribution and dissemination of the apps have not been addressed. The aims of this research article are to: (1) highlight a low-cost methodology that clinicians without technical knowledge could use to develop educational apps; (2) clarify the respective costs involved in the process of development; (3) illustrate how limitations pertaining to dissemination could be addressed; and (4) to report initial utilization data of the apps and to share initial users' self-rated perception of the apps. In this study, we will present two techniques of how to create a mobile app using two of the well-established online mobile app building websites. The costs of development are specified and the methodology of dissemination of the apps will be shared. The application of the low-cost methodologies in the creation of the "Mastering Psychiatry" app for undergraduates and "Déjà vu" app for postgraduates will be discussed. A questionnaire survey has been administered to undergraduate students collating their perceptions towards the app. For the Mastering Psychiatry app, a cumulative total of 722 users have used the mobile app since inception, based on our analytics. For the Déjà vu app, there has been a cumulative total of 154 downloads since inception. The utilization data demonstrated the receptiveness towards these apps, and this is reinforced by the positive perceptions undergraduate students (n=185) had towards the low-cost self-developed apps. This is one of the few studies that have demonstrated the low-cost

  12. Estimating indirect costs in primary Sjögren's syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Simon J; St Pierre, Yvan; Sutcliffe, Nurhan; Isenberg, David A; Goldblatt, Fiona; Price, Elizabeth; Hamburger, John; Richards, Andrea; Rauz, Saaeha; Regan, Marian; Rigby, Shirley; Jones, Adrian; Mulherin, Diarmuid; Clarke, Ann E

    2010-05-01

    To estimate the indirect costs associated with primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) compared with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and community controls. Data were obtained from 84 women patients with pSS as part of a study to develop a systemic activity measure, from 87 consecutive women patients with RA attending a hospital clinic, and from 96 women community controls on a general practice list. A modified economic component of the Stanford Health Assessment Questionnaire was used to assess lost productivity. Using a conservative model, the estimated total annual indirect costs (95% CI) were 7677 pound sterling (5560 pound sterling, 9794 pound sterling) for pSS, 10,444 pound sterling (8206 pound sterling, 12,681 pound sterling) for RA, and 892 pound sterling (307 pound sterling, 1478 pound sterling) for controls. Using a model that maximizes the estimates, the equivalent figures were 13,502 pound sterling (9542 pound sterling, 17,463 pound sterling), 17,070 pound sterling (13,112 pound sterling, 21,028 pound sterling), and 3382 pound sterling (2187 pound sterling, 4578 pound sterling), respectively. These were all significantly greater at p indirect costs equivalent to 69%-83% of that for patients with RA. This needs to be taken into account when evaluating the overall economic consequences of pSS.

  13. Methods for cost estimation in software project management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briciu, C. V.; Filip, I.; Indries, I. I.

    2016-02-01

    The speed in which the processes used in software development field have changed makes it very difficult the task of forecasting the overall costs for a software project. By many researchers, this task has been considered unachievable, but there is a group of scientist for which this task can be solved using the already known mathematical methods (e.g. multiple linear regressions) and the new techniques as genetic programming and neural networks. The paper presents a solution for building a model for the cost estimation models in the software project management using genetic algorithms starting from the PROMISE datasets related COCOMO 81 model. In the first part of the paper, a summary of the major achievements in the research area of finding a model for estimating the overall project costs is presented together with the description of the existing software development process models. In the last part, a basic proposal of a mathematical model of a genetic programming is proposed including here the description of the chosen fitness function and chromosome representation. The perspective of model described it linked with the current reality of the software development considering as basis the software product life cycle and the current challenges and innovations in the software development area. Based on the author's experiences and the analysis of the existing models and product lifecycle it was concluded that estimation models should be adapted with the new technologies and emerging systems and they depend largely by the chosen software development method.

  14. Methodological proposals for estimating the price of climate in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joly, D.; Brossard, T.; Cardot, H.; Cavailhes, J.; Hilal, M.; Wavresky, P.

    2009-09-01

    A current project linking economists, geographers and mathematicians evaluates the price of climate in France. The economic data are mainly from housing surveys conducted by the INSEE. It consists in a total of 9,640 buyers of single-detached houses, 2,658 buyers of apartments, 3,447 tenants of single-detached houses and 8,615 tenants of apartments. Each transaction is located in space by X-Y geographical coordinates. The climatic data are derived from the Meteo-France data base (normal 1970-2000). They are related to (1) mean annual temperature, (2) mean temperature for January and July, (3) number of days with temperatures of less than -5 °C in January and more than 30 °C in July, (4) mean monthly rainfall, (5) rainfall in January and July, (6) number of days' precipitation in January and July. These data are recorded by a network of scattered weather stations. A raster GIS composed by ten data layers derived from a DEM and remote sensing images at 250 m resolution is used to initiate interpolations. Four types of interpolation techniques were tested. First we used regressions between climatic data (variables to be explained) and explanatory variables stored into the GIS. Second we used ordinary kriging; third a double step method linking regression and then kriging of the regression residuals. Finally we used a local interpolation method. Based on standard deviation values obtained by cross validation and R² values, the comparison between the four methods shows that the last one reduces the residuals to the minimum and explains the maximum of variance. It was retained in our project to compute continuous field of the climatic data. The predicted values are then merged with the housing survey data. We use the hedonic price method (Rosen, 1974) to determine the price of climatic attributes, which are capitalized in land rents. Three econometric methods are used: a fixed-effects model estimated by OLS or PLS method and a mixed model with random intercepts. The

  15. Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trivailo, O.; Sippel, M.; Şekercioğlu, Y. A.

    2012-08-01

    The primary purpose of this paper is to review currently existing cost estimation methods, models, tools and resources applicable to the space sector. While key space sector methods are outlined, a specific focus is placed on hardware cost estimation on a system level, particularly for early mission phases during which specifications and requirements are not yet crystallised, and information is limited. For the space industry, cost engineering within the systems engineering framework is an integral discipline. The cost of any space program now constitutes a stringent design criterion, which must be considered and carefully controlled during the entire program life cycle. A first step to any program budget is a representative cost estimate which usually hinges on a particular estimation approach, or methodology. Therefore appropriate selection of specific cost models, methods and tools is paramount, a difficult task given the highly variable nature, scope as well as scientific and technical requirements applicable to each program. Numerous methods, models and tools exist. However new ways are needed to address very early, pre-Phase 0 cost estimation during the initial program research and establishment phase when system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be established and defined. Due to their specificity, for vehicles such as reusable launchers with a manned capability, a lack of historical data implies that using either the classic heuristic approach such as parametric cost estimation based on underlying CERs, or the analogy approach, is therefore, by definition, limited. This review identifies prominent cost estimation models applied to the space sector, and their underlying cost driving parameters and factors. Strengths, weaknesses, and suitability to specific mission types and classes are also highlighted. Current approaches which strategically amalgamate various cost estimation strategies both for formulation and validation

  16. An Estimator of Heavy Tail Index through the Generalized Jackknife Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiqi Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In practice, sometimes the data can be divided into several blocks but only a few of the largest observations within each block are available to estimate the heavy tail index. To address this problem, we propose a new class of estimators through the Generalized Jackknife methodology based on Qi’s estimator (2010. These estimators are proved to be asymptotically normal under suitable conditions. Compared to Hill’s estimator and Qi’s estimator, our new estimator has better asymptotic efficiency in terms of the minimum mean squared error, for a wide range of the second order shape parameters. For the finite samples, our new estimator still compares favorably to Hill’s estimator and Qi’s estimator, providing stable sample paths as a function of the number of dividing the sample into blocks, smaller estimation bias, and MSE.

  17. DEVELOPMENT OF A METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATING QUALITY COST IN A SEMIMECANIZED LOGGING OPERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laércio Antônio Gonçalves Jacovine

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The etudy made a description and use of a methodology for evaluating quality cost in a semimechanized    logging   operation   was   developed. For  description  this  goal the logging sub-operations were detailed. The effects of the non conformity of one sub-operation on the succeeding ones were listed and analysed. Those consequences on which a money value could be atributed were specified. The methodology was applied to a case study. Quality cost were divided in three categories: evaluation cost, prevention cost, and faillure cost. It was concluded that the firm is not investing enough in evaluation and prevention causing a faillure cost of R$1.541,11/ha, which is considered too high. The percent composition of this cost was: log spliting 40,96%; error in wood volume determination in the stocking yeard 37,12%; wood waste in the stand 9,52%; non separation of thin logs 8,46%; logs left in the fire control line 1,49%; miscalculation of splited wood volume 1,53%; wood volume remaining in the coppices 0,51%; presence of branches in the fire control line 0,41%. The logs spliting operation must be worked out in order to diminish its cost. Firm profit may be increased throught investiment and research in reducing evaluation and prevention costs. Every waste cost must be avoided because is not only the firm itself, but the whole society who ends up paying the bill.

  18. Benefit-cost analysis of addiction treatment: methodological guidelines and empirical application using the DATCAP and ASI

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    French, Michael T; Salomé, Helena J; Sindelar, Jody L; McLellan, A Thomas

    2002-01-01

    ...) and Addiction Severity Index (ASI) in a benefit-cost analysis of addiction treatment. A representative benefit-cost analysis of three outpatient programs was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and value of the methodological guidelines...

  19. COSTMODL - AN AUTOMATED SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COST ESTIMATION TOOL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, G. B.

    1994-01-01

    The cost of developing computer software consumes an increasing portion of many organizations' budgets. As this trend continues, the capability to estimate the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product becomes increasingly important. COSTMODL is an automated software development estimation tool which fulfills this need. Assimilating COSTMODL to any organization's particular environment can yield significant reduction in the risk of cost overruns and failed projects. This user-customization capability is unmatched by any other available estimation tool. COSTMODL accepts a description of a software product to be developed and computes estimates of the effort required to produce it, the calendar schedule required, and the distribution of effort and staffing as a function of the defined set of development life-cycle phases. This is accomplished by the five cost estimation algorithms incorporated into COSTMODL: the NASA-developed KISS model; the Basic, Intermediate, and Ada COCOMO models; and the Incremental Development model. This choice affords the user the ability to handle project complexities ranging from small, relatively simple projects to very large projects. Unique to COSTMODL is the ability to redefine the life-cycle phases of development and the capability to display a graphic representation of the optimum organizational structure required to develop the subject project, along with required staffing levels and skills. The program is menu-driven and mouse sensitive with an extensive context-sensitive help system that makes it possible for a new user to easily install and operate the program and to learn the fundamentals of cost estimation without having prior training or separate documentation. The implementation of these functions, along with the customization feature, into one program makes COSTMODL unique within the industry. COSTMODL was written for IBM PC compatibles, and it requires Turbo Pascal 5.0 or later and Turbo

  20. Costs without benefits? Methodological issues in assessing costs, benefits and effectiveness of water protection policies. Paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walz, R.; Schleich, J.

    2000-07-01

    In the last few years, the conditions for extending environmental policy in general and policy dealing with the prevention of water pollution in particular have undergone extensive changes. On the one hand, there has been indisputable considerable success in preventing water pollution which has led to less direct pressure for policy action. On the other hand, the rising sewage levies and the lower political priority assigned in general to environmental policy documented in, e. g. public opinion surveys, has led to water pollution control policy facing very different pressures of justification: more efficient use of funds, improved planning processes, proof of the achievable benefit, but also stopping the increase in levies or not hindering economic development, these or similar slogans are the objections brought against water pollution control. Regardless of how unambiguous these terms appear when used as slogans in this way, they become diffuse and unclear if regarded more closely. This paper therefore attempts to reveal the reasons for possible misunderstandings and misinterpretations on the one hand and, on the other, to reveal the basic problems and uncertainties which are necessarily linked with an assessment of costs and benefits. In order to do this, three areas are examined: level of actors and analysis, evaluation methods and assessment of costs and benefits. (orig.)

  1. Development of hybrid lifecycle cost estimating tool (HLCET) for manufacturing influenced design tradeoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirirojvisuth, Apinut

    In complex aerospace system design, making an effective design decision requires multidisciplinary knowledge from both product and process perspectives. Integrating manufacturing considerations into the design process is most valuable during the early design stages since designers have more freedom to integrate new ideas when changes are relatively inexpensive in terms of time and effort. Several metrics related to manufacturability are cost, time, and manufacturing readiness level (MRL). Yet, there is a lack of structured methodology that quantifies how changes in the design decisions impact these metrics. As a result, a new set of integrated cost analysis tools are proposed in this study to quantify the impacts. Equally important is the capability to integrate this new cost tool into the existing design methodologies without sacrificing agility and flexibility required during the early design phases. To demonstrate the applicability of this concept, a ModelCenter environment is used to develop software architecture that represents Integrated Product and Process Development (IPPD) methodology used in several aerospace systems designs. The environment seamlessly integrates product and process analysis tools and makes effective transition from one design phase to the other while retaining knowledge gained a priori. Then, an advanced cost estimating tool called Hybrid Lifecycle Cost Estimating Tool (HLCET), a hybrid combination of weight-, process-, and activity-based estimating techniques, is integrated with the design framework. A new weight-based lifecycle cost model is created based on Tailored Cost Model (TCM) equations [3]. This lifecycle cost tool estimates the program cost based on vehicle component weights and programmatic assumptions. Additional high fidelity cost tools like process-based and activity-based cost analysis methods can be used to modify the baseline TCM result as more knowledge is accumulated over design iterations. Therefore, with this

  2. Methodology to Calculate the Costs of a Floating Offshore Renewable Energy Farm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Castro-Santos

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a general methodology to calculate the life-cycle cost of floating offshore renewable energy devices, applying it to wave energy and wind energy devices. It is accounts for the contributions of the six main phases of their life-cycle: concept definition, design and development, manufacturing, installation, exploitation and dismantling, the costs of which have been defined. Moreover, the energy produced is also taken into account to calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy of a floating offshore renewable energy farm. The methodology proposed has been applied to two renewable energy devices: a floating offshore wave energy device and a floating offshore wind energy device. Two locations have been considered: Aguçadoura and São Pedro de Moel, both in Portugal. Results indicate that the most important cost in terms of the life-cycle of a floating offshore renewable energy farm is the exploitation cost, followed by the manufacturing and the installation cost. In addition, the best area in terms of costs is the same independently of the type of floating offshore renewable energy considered: Aguçadoura. However, the results in terms of Levelized Cost of Energy are different: Aguçadoura is better when considering wave energy technology and the São Pedro de Moel region is the best option when considering floating wind energy technology. The method proposed aims to give a direct approach to calculate the main life-cycle cost of a floating offshore renewable energy farm. It helps to assess its feasibility and evaluating the relevant characteristics that influence it the most.

  3. Methodology to estimate parameters of an excitation system based on experimental conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saavedra-Montes, A.J. [Carrera 80 No 65-223, Bloque M8 oficina 113, Escuela de Mecatronica, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellin (Colombia); Calle 13 No 100-00, Escuela de Ingenieria Electrica y Electronica, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Valle (Colombia); Ramirez-Scarpetta, J.M. [Calle 13 No 100-00, Escuela de Ingenieria Electrica y Electronica, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Valle (Colombia); Malik, O.P. [2500 University Drive N.W., Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2011-01-15

    A methodology to estimate the parameters of a potential-source controlled rectifier excitation system model is presented in this paper. The proposed parameter estimation methodology is based on the characteristics of the excitation system. A comparison of two pseudo random binary signals, two sampling periods for each one, and three estimation algorithms is also presented. Simulation results from an excitation control system model and experimental results from an excitation system of a power laboratory setup are obtained. To apply the proposed methodology, the excitation system parameters are identified at two different levels of the generator saturation curve. The results show that it is possible to estimate the parameters of the standard model of an excitation system, recording two signals and the system operating in closed loop with the generator. The normalized sum of squared error obtained with experimental data is below 10%, and with simulation data is below 5%. (author)

  4. Cost-price estimation of clinical laboratory services based on activity-based costing: A case study from a developing country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouseli, Ali; Barouni, Mohsen; Amiresmaili, Mohammadreza; Samiee, Siamak Mirab; Vali, Leila

    2017-04-01

    It is believed that laboratory tariffs in Iran don't reflect the real costs. This might expose private laboratories at financial hardship. Activity Based Costing is widely used as a cost measurement instrument to more closely approximate the true cost of operations. This study aimed to determine the real price of different clinical tests of a selected private clinical laboratory. This study was a cross sectional study carried out in 2015. The study setting was the private laboratories in the city of Kerman, Iran. Of 629 tests in the tariff book of the laboratory (relative value), 188 tests were conducted in the laboratory that used Activity Based Costing (ABC) methodology to estimate cost-price. Analyzing and cost-price estimating of laboratory services were performed by MY ABCM software Version 5.0. In 2015, the total costs were $641,645. Direct and indirect costs were 78.3% and 21.7% respectively. Laboratory consumable costs by 37% and personnel costs by 36.3% had the largest share of the costing. Also, group of hormone tests cost the most $147,741 (23.03%), and other tests group cost the least $3,611 (0.56%). Also after calculating the cost of laboratory services, a comparison was made between the calculated price and the private sector's tariffs in 2015. This study showed that there was a difference between costs and tariffs in the private laboratory. One way to overcome this problem is to increase the number of laboratory tests with regard to capacity of the laboratories.

  5. Major weapon system environmental life-cycle cost estimating for Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C3P2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Wesley; Thurston, Marland; Hood, Christopher

    1995-01-01

    The Titan 4 Space Launch Vehicle Program is one of many major weapon system programs that have modified acquisition plans and operational procedures to meet new, stringent environmental rules and regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) mandate to reduce the use of ozone depleting chemicals (ODC's) is just one of the regulatory changes that has affected the program. In the last few years, public environmental awareness, coupled with stricter environmental regulations, has created the need for DOD to produce environmental life-cycle cost estimates (ELCCE) for every major weapon system acquisition program. The environmental impact of the weapon system must be assessed and budgeted, considering all costs, from cradle to grave. The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) has proposed that organizations consider Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C(sup 3)P(sup 2)) issues associated with each acquisition program to assess life-cycle impacts and costs. The Air Force selected the Titan 4 system as the pilot program for estimating life-cycle environmental costs. The estimating task required participants to develop an ELCCE methodology, collect data to test the methodology and produce a credible cost estimate within the DOD C(sup 3)P(sup 2) definition. The estimating methodology included using the Program Office weapon system description and work breakdown structure together with operational site and manufacturing plant visits to identify environmental cost drivers. The results of the Titan IV ELCCE process are discussed and expanded to demonstrate how they can be applied to satisfy any life-cycle environmental cost estimating requirement.

  6. Architects and Design-Phase Cost Estimates: Design Professionals Should Reconsider the Value of Third-Party Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coakley, John

    2010-01-01

    Professional cost estimators are widely used by architects during the design phases of a project to provide preliminary cost estimates. These estimates may begin at the conceptual design phase and are prepared at regular intervals through the construction document phase. Estimating professionals are frequently tasked with "selling" the importance…

  7. Cost effectiveness of pharmacological maintenance treatment for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a review of the evidence and methodological issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H; Goossens, Lucas M A

    2012-04-01

    Over 200 million people have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) worldwide. The number of disease-year equivalents and deaths attributable to COPD are high. Guidelines for the pharmacological treatment of the disease recommend an individualized step-up approach in which treatment is intensified when results are unsatisfactory. Our objective was to present a systematic review of the cost effectiveness of pharmacological maintenance treatment for COPD and to discuss the methodological strengths and weaknesses of the studies. A systematic literature search for economic evaluations of drug therapy in COPD was performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Economic Evaluation Database of the UK NHS (NHS-EED) and the European Network of Health Economic Evaluation Databases (EURONHEED). Full economic evaluations presenting both costs and health outcomes were included. A total of 40 studies were included in the review. Of these, 16 were linked to a clinical trial, 14 used Markov models, eight were based on observational data and two used a different approach. The few studies on combining short-acting bronchodilators were consistent in finding net cost savings compared with monotherapy. Studies comparing inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) with placebo or no maintenance treatment reported inconsistent results. Studies comparing fluticasone with salmeterol consistently found salmeterol to be more cost effective. The cost-effectiveness studies of tiotropium versus placebo, ipratropium or salmeterol pointed towards a reduction in total COPD-related healthcare costs for tiotropium in many but not all studies. All of these studies reported additional health benefits of tiotropium. The cost-effectiveness studies of the combination of inhaled long-acting β₂-agonists and ICS all report additional health benefits at an increase in total COPD-related costs in most studies. The cost-per-QALY estimates of this combination treatment vary widely and are very sensitive to the assumptions on

  8. The model for estimation production cost of embroidery handicraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofierni; Sriwana, IK; Septriani, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Embroidery industry is one of type of micro industry that produce embroidery handicraft. These industries are emerging in some rural areas of Indonesia. Embroidery clothing are produce such as scarves and clothes that show cultural value of certain region. The owner of an enterprise must calculate the cost of production before making a decision on how many products are received from the customer. A calculation approach to production cost analysis is needed to consider the feasibility of each order coming. This study is proposed to design the expert system (ES) in order to improve production management in the embroidery industry. The model will design used Fuzzy inference system as a model to estimate production cost. Research conducted based on survey and knowledge acquisitions from stakeholder of supply chain embroidery handicraft industry at Bukittinggi, West Sumatera, Indonesia. This paper will use fuzzy input where the quality, the complexity of the design and the working hours required and the result of the model are useful to manage production cost on embroidery production.

  9. Improved Recharge Estimation from Portable, Low-Cost Weather Stations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holländer, Hartmut M; Wang, Zijian; Assefa, Kibreab A; Woodbury, Allan D

    2016-03-01

    Groundwater recharge estimation is a critical quantity for sustainable groundwater management. The feasibility and robustness of recharge estimation was evaluated using physical-based modeling procedures, and data from a low-cost weather station with remote sensor techniques in Southern Abbotsford, British Columbia, Canada. Recharge was determined using the Richards-based vadose zone hydrological model, HYDRUS-1D. The required meteorological data were recorded with a HOBO(TM) weather station for a short observation period (about 1 year) and an existing weather station (Abbotsford A) for long-term study purpose (27 years). Undisturbed soil cores were taken at two locations in the vicinity of the HOBO(TM) weather station. The derived soil hydraulic parameters were used to characterize the soil in the numerical model. Model performance was evaluated using observed soil moisture and soil temperature data obtained from subsurface remote sensors. A rigorous sensitivity analysis was used to test the robustness of the model. Recharge during the short observation period was estimated at 863 and 816 mm. The mean annual recharge was estimated at 848 and 859 mm/year based on a time series of 27 years. The relative ratio of annual recharge-precipitation varied from 43% to 69%. From a monthly recharge perspective, the majority (80%) of recharge due to precipitation occurred during the hydrologic winter period. The comparison of the recharge estimates with other studies indicates a good agreement. Furthermore, this method is able to predict transient recharge estimates, and can provide a reasonable tool for estimates on nutrient leaching that is often controlled by strong precipitation events and rapid infiltration of water and nitrate into the soil. © 2015, National Ground Water Association.

  10. A comprehensive methodology for intelligent systems life-cycle cost modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsmeyer, David J.; Lum, Henry, Jr.

    1993-01-01

    As NASA moves into the last part on the twentieth century, the desire to do 'business as usual' has been replaced with the mantra 'faster, cheaper, better'. Recently, new work has been done to show how the implementation of advanced technologies, such as intelligent systems, will impact the cost of a system design or in the operational cost for a spacecraft mission. The impact of the degree of autonomous or intelligent systems and human participation on a given program is manifested most significantly during the program operational phases, while the decision of who performs what tasks, and how much automation is incorporated into the system are all made during the design and development phases. Employing intelligent systems and automation is not an either/or question, but one of degree. The question is what level of automation and autonomy will provide the optimal trade-off between performance and cost. Conventional costing methodologies, however, are unable to show the significance of technologies like these in terms of traceable cost benefits and reductions in the various phases of the spacecraft's lifecycle. The proposed comprehensive life-cycle methodology can address intelligent system technologies as well as others that impact human-machine operational modes.

  11. Mitigating climate change through afforestation: new cost estimates for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne Sofie Elberg Nielsen; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2014-01-01

    We provide new cost estimates for carbon sequestration through afforestation in the U.S. We extend existing studies of carbon sequestration costs in several important ways, while ensuring the transparency of our approach. Our costs estimates have five distinguishing features: (1) we estimate costs for each county in the contiguous U.S., (2) we include afforestation of...

  12. Cost Estimation Techniques for C3I System Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-07-01

    N@ROIMS~w L unliite * 4 RPONMON O9:RG AIIATION 1POL NUMERISNTRINTG ORAIATIN EPRTNUOEI *UNASSFE N/ADTR8- 26 g ~pr 7..SPIA~O N MERIT O. MITI ONITORINAGIL...PICATION NUMEER11 ORGANIZATION r uan, Rome Air Development Center COEE 730602-83-C-0184 ft 6. LORIISS ICJIy. S&am d ZIP Code# I. SOURCE OP PUNtOING NO...J. Stone. Jr.. "Software .. ,(COCOMO Model) Transfer Cost Estimation Technique", B.W. Boehm. ftkbLacu Oi nath J g MITRE, M70-43, E--r g ga i , July

  13. An evolutionary morphological approach for software development cost estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Ricardo de A; Oliveira, Adriano L I; Soares, Sergio; Meira, Silvio

    2012-08-01

    In this work we present an evolutionary morphological approach to solve the software development cost estimation (SDCE) problem. The proposed approach consists of a hybrid artificial neuron based on framework of mathematical morphology (MM) with algebraic foundations in the complete lattice theory (CLT), referred to as dilation-erosion perceptron (DEP). Also, we present an evolutionary learning process, called DEP(MGA), using a modified genetic algorithm (MGA) to design the DEP model, because a drawback arises from the gradient estimation of morphological operators in the classical learning process of the DEP, since they are not differentiable in the usual way. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed model using five complex SDCE problems and three well-known performance metrics, demonstrating good performance of the DEP model to solve SDCE problems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Application of Low-Cost Methodologies for Mobile Phone App Development

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Melvyn W. B.; Cheow, Enquan; Ho, Cyrus SH; Yeong, Ng Beng; Ho, Roger CM; Cheok, Christopher CS

    2014-01-01

    Background The usage of mobile phones and mobile phone apps in the recent decade has indeed become more prevalent. Previous research has highlighted a method of using just the Internet browser and a text editor to create an app, but this does not eliminate the challenges faced by clinicians. More recently, two methodologies of app development have been shared, but there has not been any disclosures pertaining to the costs involved. In addition, limitations such as the distribution and dissemi...

  15. Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comstock, Douglas A.; Van Wychen, Kristin; Zimmerman, Mary Beth

    2015-01-01

    Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

  16. Advanced fuel cycle cost estimation model and its cost estimation results for three nuclear fuel cycles using a dynamic model in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sungki, E-mail: sgkim1@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Ko, Wonil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Youn, Saerom; Gao, Ruxing [University of Science and Technology, 217 Gajungro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-350 (Korea, Republic of); Bang, Sungsig, E-mail: ssbang@kaist.ac.kr [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Business and Technology Management, 291 Deahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • The nuclear fuel cycle cost using a new cost estimation model was analyzed. • The material flows of three nuclear fuel cycle options were calculated. • The generation cost of once-through was estimated to be 66.88 mills/kW h. • The generation cost of pyro-SFR recycling was estimated to be 78.06 mills/kW h. • The reactor cost was identified as the main cost driver of pyro-SFR recycling. - Abstract: The present study analyzes advanced nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation models such as the different discount rate model and its cost estimation results. To do so, an analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle cost of three options (direct disposal (once through), PWR–MOX (Mixed OXide fuel), and Pyro-SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor)) from the viewpoint of economic sense, focusing on the cost estimation model, was conducted using a dynamic model. From an analysis of the fuel cycle cost estimation results, it was found that some cost gap exists between the traditional same discount rate model and the advanced different discount rate model. However, this gap does not change the priority of the nuclear fuel cycle option from the viewpoint of economics. In addition, the fuel cycle costs of OT (Once-Through) and Pyro-SFR recycling based on the most likely value using a probabilistic cost estimation except for reactor costs were calculated to be 8.75 mills/kW h and 8.30 mills/kW h, respectively. Namely, the Pyro-SFR recycling option was more economical than the direct disposal option. However, if the reactor cost is considered, the economic sense in the generation cost between the two options (direct disposal vs. Pyro-SFR recycling) can be changed because of the high reactor cost of an SFR.

  17. Improving Efficiency Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tibor, Laura C; Schultz, Stacy R; Menaker, Ronald; Weber, Bradley D; Ness, Jay; Smith, Paula; Young, Phillip M

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to increase efficiency in MR enterography using a time-driven activity-based costing methodology. In February 2015, a multidisciplinary team was formed to identify the personnel, equipment, space, and supply costs of providing outpatient MR enterography. The team mapped the current state, completed observations, performed timings, and calculated costs associated with each element of the process. The team used Pareto charts to understand the highest cost and most time-consuming activities, brainstormed opportunities, and assessed impact. Plan-do-study-act cycles were developed to test the changes, and run charts were used to monitor progress. The process changes consisted of revising the workflow associated with the preparation and administration of glucagon, with completed implementation in November 2015. The time-driven activity-based costing methodology allowed the radiology department to develop a process to more accurately identify the costs of providing MR enterography. The primary process modification was reassigning responsibility for the administration of glucagon from nurses to technologists. After implementation, the improvements demonstrated success by reducing non-value-added steps and cost by 13%, staff time by 16%, and patient process time by 17%. The saved process time was used to augment existing examination time slots to more accurately accommodate the entire enterographic examination. Anecdotal comments were captured to validate improved staff satisfaction within the multidisciplinary team. This process provided a successful outcome to address daily workflow frustrations that could not previously be improved. A multidisciplinary team was necessary to achieve success, in addition to the use of a structured problem-solving approach. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Cost estimation for slope stability improvement in Muara Enim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juliantina, Ika; Sutejo, Yulindasari; Adhitya, Bimo Brata; Sari, Nurul Permata; Kurniawan, Reffanda

    2017-11-01

    Case study area of SP. Sugihwaras-Baturaja is typologically specified in the C-zone type because the area is included in the foot of the mountain with a slope of 0 % to 20 %. Generally, the factors that cause landslide in Muara Enim Regency due to the influence of soil/rock, water factor, geological factors, and human activities. Slope improvement on KM.273 + 642-KM.273 + 774 along 132 m using soil nailing with 19 mm diameter tendon iron and an angle of 20o and a 75 mm shotcrete thickness, a K-250 concrete grouting material. Cost modeling (y) soil nailing based on 4 variables are X1 = length, X2 = horizontal distance, X3 = safety factor (SF), and X4 = time. Nine variations were used as multiple linear regression equations and analyzed with SPSS.16.0 program. Based on the SPSS output, then attempt the classical assumption and feasibility test model which produced the model that is Cost = (1,512,062 + 194,354 length-1,649,135 distance + 187,831 SF + 54,864 time) million Rupiah. The budget plan includes preparatory work, drainage system, soil nailing, and shotcrete. An efficient cost estimate of 8 m length nail, 1.5 m installation distance, safety factor (SF) = 1.742 and a 30 day processing time resulted in a fee of Rp. 2,566,313,000.00 (Two billion five hundred sixty six million three hundred thirteen thousand rupiah).

  19. How can activity-based costing methodology be performed as a powerful tool to calculate costs and secure appropriate patient care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Blossom Yen-Ju; Chao, Te-Hsin; Yao, Yuh; Tu, Shu-Min; Wu, Chun-Ching; Chern, Jin-Yuan; Chao, Shiu-Hsiung; Shaw, Keh-Yuong

    2007-04-01

    Previous studies have shown the advantages of using activity-based costing (ABC) methodology in the health care industry. The potential values of ABC methodology in health care are derived from the more accurate cost calculation compared to the traditional step-down costing, and the potentials to evaluate quality or effectiveness of health care based on health care activities. This project used ABC methodology to profile the cost structure of inpatients with surgical procedures at the Department of Colorectal Surgery in a public teaching hospital, and to identify the missing or inappropriate clinical procedures. We found that ABC methodology was able to accurately calculate costs and to identify several missing pre- and post-surgical nursing education activities in the course of treatment.

  20. Notification: Preliminary Research: Review of Independent Government Cost Estimates and Indirect Costs for EPA’s Interagency Agreements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Project #OA-FY14-0130, February 11, 2014. The EPA OIG plans to begin preliminary research of the independent government cost estimates and indirect costs for the EPA's funds-in interagency agreements.

  1. A Consistent Methodology Based Parameter Estimation for a Lactic Acid Bacteria Fermentation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spann, Robert; Roca, Christophe; Kold, David

    2017-01-01

    mechanisms in a lactic acid bacteria fermentation. We present here a consistent approach for a methodology based parameter estimation for a lactic acid fermentation. In the beginning, just an initial knowledge based guess of parameters was available and an initial parameter estimation of the complete set...... parameter estimation including an evaluation of the correlation and confidence intervals of those parameters to double-check identifiability issues. Such a consistent approach supports process modelling and understanding as i.e., one avoids questionable interpretations caused by estimates of actually...

  2. Parametric cost estimation utilizing development-to-production cost relationship applied to the advanced amphibious assault vehicle

    OpenAIRE

    Malcolm, David S.

    1991-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis examines the relationship between development unit cost and production unit cost. Historical data from seven armored tracked vehicle programs is used to test the relationship. A study of this relationship is useful when production has not begun and the estimator wants a means to estimate production costs. Using data from the seven programs, parametric estimating techniques are used toe examine the relationship between pr...

  3. Software cost/resource modeling: Deep space network software cost estimation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, R. J.

    1980-01-01

    A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for JPL deep space network (DSN) data systems implementation tasks is presented. The resource estimation model incorporates principles and data from a number of existing models, such as those of the General Research Corporation, Doty Associates, IBM (Walston-Felix), Rome Air Force Development Center, University of Maryland, and Rayleigh-Norden-Putnam. The model calibrates task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit JPL software lifecycle statistics. The estimation model output scales a standard DSN work breakdown structure skeleton, which is then input to a PERT/CPM system, producing a detailed schedule and resource budget for the project being planned.

  4. A General Model for Cost Estimation in an Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benzion Barlev

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Current Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP state that the cost of an asset acquired for cash is the fair value (FV of the amount surrendered, and that of an asset acquired in a non-monetary exchange is the FV of the asset surrendered or, if it is more “clearly evident,” the FV of the acquired asset. The measurement method prescribed for a non-monetary exchange ignores valuable information about the “less clearly evident” asset. Thus, we suggest that the FV in any exchange be measured by the weighted average of the exchanged assets’ FV estimations, where the weights are the inverse of the variances’ estimations. This alternative valuation process accounts for the uncertainty involved in estimating the FV of each of the asset in the exchange. The proposed method suits all types of exchanges: monetary and non-monetary. In a monetary transaction, the weighted average equals the cash paid because the variance of its FV is nil.

  5. Estimation of Spatial-Temporal Gait Parameters Using a Low-Cost Ultrasonic Motion Analysis System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongbin Qi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a low-cost motion analysis system using a wireless ultrasonic sensor network is proposed and investigated. A methodology has been developed to extract spatial-temporal gait parameters including stride length, stride duration, stride velocity, stride cadence, and stride symmetry from 3D foot displacements estimated by the combination of spherical positioning technique and unscented Kalman filter. The performance of this system is validated against a camera-based system in the laboratory with 10 healthy volunteers. Numerical results show the feasibility of the proposed system with average error of 2.7% for all the estimated gait parameters. The influence of walking speed on the measurement accuracy of proposed system is also evaluated. Statistical analysis demonstrates its capability of being used as a gait assessment tool for some medical applications.

  6. Quantitative Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation Methodology for a Small Scada Control System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new methodology for obtaining a quick quantitative measurement of the risk reduction achieved when a control system is modified with the intent to improve cyber security defense against external attackers. The proposed methodology employs a directed graph called a compromise graph, where the nodes represent stages of a potential attack and the edges represent the expected time-to-compromise for differing attacker skill levels. Time-to-compromise is modeled as a function of known vulnerabilities and attacker skill level. The methodology was used to calculate risk reduction estimates for a specific SCADA system and for a specific set of control system security remedial actions. Despite an 86% reduction in the total number of vulnerabilities, the estimated time-to-compromise was increased only by about 3 to 30% depending on target and attacker skill level.

  7. FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Wang, L.; Wood, E.; Lopp, S.; Ramroth, L.

    2015-05-04

    The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

  8. Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindermann, Georg; Obersteiner, Michael; Sohngen, Brent; Sathaye, Jayant; Andrasko, Kenneth; Rametsteiner, Ewald; Schlamadinger, Bernhard; Wunder, Sven; Beach, Robert

    2008-07-29

    Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 x 10(5) g) CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion.yr(-1) for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion.yr(-1). Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.

  9. Comparative cost estimates of five coal utilization processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-01

    Detailed capital and operating cost estimates were prepared for the generation of electric power in a new, net 500 MW (e), coal-burning facility by five alternative processes: conventional boiler with no control of SO/sub 2/ emissions, atmospheric fluidized bed steam generator (AFB), conventional boiler equipped with a limestone FGD system, conventional boiler equipped with magnesia FGD system, and coal beneficiation followed by a conventional boiler quipped with limestone FGD for part of the flue gas stream. For a coal containing 3.5% sulfur, meeting SO/sub 2/ emission limits of 1.2 pounds per million Btu fired was most economical with the limestone FGD system. This result was unchanged for a coal containing 5% sulfur; however, for 2% sulfur, limestone FGD and AFB were competitive methods of controlling SO/sub 2/ emissions. Brief consideration of 90% reduction of SO/sub 2/ emissions led to the choice of limestone FGD as the most economical method. Byproduct credit for the sulfuric acid produced in regenerating the magnesia could make that system competitive with the limestone FGD system, depending upon local markets. The cost of sludge fixation and disposal would make limestone FGD noneconomic in many situations, if these steps are necessary.

  10. Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindermann, Georg; Obersteiner, Michael; Sohngen, Brent; Sathaye, Jayant; Andrasko, Kenneth; Rametsteiner, Ewald; Schlamadinger, Bernhard; Wunder, Sven; Beach, Robert

    2008-01-01

    Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3–0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 × 105 g) CO2·yr−1 in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion·yr−1 for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5–2.7 Gt CO2·yr−1 in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion·yr−1. Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described. PMID:18650377

  11. [Induced abortion in Cartagena, Colombia: estimation using Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monterrosa-Castro, Alvaro; Paternina-Caicedo, Angel J; Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel

    2011-04-01

    Estimating induced abortion incidence in a reference hospital and the city of Cartagena, Colombia. This was an ecological study that used Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology (AICM). Data from the Rafael Calvo Maternity Clinic (CMRC) was used for estimating post-abortion attention in Cartagena, Colombia. Induced abortion rates and ratios were estimated in the CMRC and the city of Cartagena from CMRC data using the AICM model. The estimated induced abortion ratio in Cartagena was 261/1,000 births in 2005, 244 in 2006 and 259 in 2007. The estimated rate per 1,000 females aged 15-44 for induced abortion was 22 in 2005, 22 in 2006 and 21 in 2007. The estimated rate was similar to the rate found in previous research using Colombian data from 1989. Public health measures should be focused on reducing unwanted pregnancies and thereby reduce induced abortion rates.

  12. An integrative cross-design synthesis approach to estimate the cost of illness: an applied case to the cost of depression in Catalonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendeck, Murielle; Serrano-Blanco, Antoni; García-Alonso, Carlos; Bonet, Pere; Jordà, Esther; Sabes-Figuera, Ramon; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

    2013-04-01

    Cost of illness (COI) studies are carried out under conditions of uncertainty and with incomplete information. There are concerns regarding their generalisability, accuracy and usability in evidence-informed care. A hybrid methodology is used to estimate the regional costs of depression in Catalonia (Spain) following an integrative approach. The cross-design synthesis included nominal groups and quantitative analysis of both top-down and bottom-up studies, and incorporated primary and secondary data from different sources of information in Catalonia. Sensitivity analysis used probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation modelling. A dissemination strategy was planned, including a standard form adapted from cost-effectiveness studies to summarise methods and results. The method used allows for a comprehensive estimate of the cost of depression in Catalonia. Health officers and decision-makers concluded that this methodology provided useful information and knowledge for evidence-informed planning in mental health. The mix of methods, combined with a simulation model, contributed to a reduction in data gaps and, in conditions of uncertainty, supplied more complete information on the costs of depression in Catalonia. This approach to COI should be differentiated from other COI designs to allow like-with-like comparisons. A consensus on COI typology, procedures and dissemination is needed.

  13. Pakistan’s Tax Gap: Estimates By Tax Calculation and Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Robina Ather Ahmed; Mark Rider

    2008-01-01

    This report provides estimates of Pakistan’s tax gap by type of tax and describes the methodologies and data used to produce these estimates. A country’s tax gap is the amount of tax that goes uncollected due to non-compliance with the tax law. For estimation purposes, the operational definition of the tax gap is the difference between potential and actual federal tax revenue, where potential revenue is the amount of tax that the government would collect if everyone fully complied with the ta...

  14. Methodologies for estimating one-time hazardous waste generation for capacity generation for capacity assurance planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.; Hwang, Ho-Ling; Elliot, S. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Peretz, J.; Bohm, R.; Hendrucko, B. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-04-01

    This report contains descriptions of methodologies to be used to estimate the one-time generation of hazardous waste associated with five different types of remediation programs: Superfund sites, RCRA Corrective Actions, Federal Facilities, Underground Storage Tanks, and State and Private Programs. Estimates of the amount of hazardous wastes generated from these sources to be shipped off-site to commercial hazardous waste treatment and disposal facilities will be made on a state by state basis for the years 1993, 1999, and 2013. In most cases, estimates will be made for the intervening years, also.

  15. A robust methodology for kinetic model parameter estimation for biocatalytic reactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Al-Haque, Naweed; Andrade Santacoloma, Paloma de Gracia; Lima Afonso Neto, Watson

    2012-01-01

    Effective estimation of parameters in biocatalytic reaction kinetic expressions are very important when building process models to enable evaluation of process technology options and alternative biocatalysts. The kinetic models used to describe enzyme-catalyzed reactions generally include several...... lead to globally optimized parameter values. In this article, a robust methodology to estimate parameters for biocatalytic reaction kinetic expressions is proposed. The methodology determines the parameters in a systematic manner by exploiting the best features of several of the current approaches....... The parameter estimation problem is decomposed into five hierarchical steps, where the solution of each of the steps becomes the input for the subsequent step to achieve the final model with the corresponding regressed parameters. The model is further used for validating its performance and determining...

  16. Estimation Methodology for the Electricity Consumption with the Daylight- and Occupancy-Controlled Artificial Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Olena Kalyanova; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Strømberg, Ida Kristine

    2017-01-01

    Artificial lighting represents 15-30% of the total electricity consumption in buildings in Scandinavia. It is possible to avoid a large share of electricity use for lighting by application of daylight control systems for artificial lighting. Existing methodology for estimation of electricity...... consumption with application of such control systems in Norway is based on Norwegian standard NS 3031:2014 and can only provide results from a rough estimate. This paper aims to introduce a new estimation methodology for the electricity usage with the daylight- and occupancy-controlled artificial lighting...... in an office, which is both accurate and rapid. The method is validated for an office building in Oslo, Norway, using the experimentally obtained data and the data from the Building Management System....

  17. A Methodology to Integrate Security and Cost-effectiveness in ATM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Matarese

    2014-01-01

    prioritizing the threats and proposing cost-effective countermeasures for the weaknesses found. ATM security is concerned with securing ATM assets in order to prevent threats and limit their effects on the overall aviation network. This effect limitation can be achieved by removing the vulnerability from the system and/or increasing the tolerance in case of component failures due to attacks. The security risk assessment methodology proposed is based on what is currently being done by the industry (the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO and the International Standard Organization (ISO, etc..

  18. The effect of construction cost estimating (CCE software on job performance: An improvement plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Mukelas M.F.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive statistical research on the effect of construction cost estimating software’s features towards estimating job performance. The objectives of this study are identification of cost estimating software features, analyzing the significant relation of cost estimating software’s features towards job performance, Explore the problem faced during the implementation and lastly propose a plan to improve the cost estimating software usage among contractors in Malaysia. The study statistically reveals four features of cost estimating software that significantly impact towards changes in cost estimating job performance. These features were refined by performing interview to focus group of respondent to observe the actual possible problems during the implementation. Eventually, the proposed improvement plan was validated by the focus group of respondents to enhance the cost estimating software implementation among contractors in Malaysia.

  19. A methodological proposal to evaluate the cost of duration moral hazard in workplace accident insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Román, Ángel; Moral, Alfonso

    2017-12-01

    The cost of duration moral hazard in workplace accident insurance has been amply explored by North-American scholars. Given the current context of financial constraints in public accounts, and particularly in the Social Security system, we feel that the issue merits inquiry in the case of Spain. The present research posits a methodological proposal using the econometric technique of stochastic frontiers, which allows us to break down the duration of work-related leave into what we term "economic days" and "medical days". Our calculations indicate that during the 9-year period spanning 2005-2013, the cost of sick leave amongst full-time salaried workers amounted to 6920 million Euros (in constant 2011 Euros). Of this total, and bearing in mind that "economic days" are those attributable to duration moral hazard, over 3000 million Euros might be linked to workplace absenteeism. It is on this figure where economic policy measures might prove more effective.

  20. Estimating productivity costs in health economic evaluations: a review of instruments and psychometric evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    Health economic evaluations (i.e. cost-effectiveness appraisal of an intervention) are useful aids for decision makers responsible for the allocation of scarce healthcare resources. The relevance of including health-related productivity costs (or benefits) in these evaluations is increasingly recognized and, as such, reliable and valid instruments to quantify productivity costs are needed. Over the years, a number of work productivity instruments have emerged in the literature, along with a growing body of psychometric evidence. The overall aim of this paper is to provide a review of available instruments with potential for estimating health-related productivity costs. This included the Health and Labor Questionnaire, Health and Work Performance Questionnaire, Health-Related Productivity Questionnaire Diary, Productivity and Disease Questionnaire, Quantity and Quality method, Stanford Presenteeism Scale 13, Valuation of Lost Productivity, Work and Health Interview, Work Limitations Questionnaire, Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire, and Work Productivity Short Inventory. Critical discussions on the instruments' overall strengths and limitations, applicability for health economic evaluations, as well as the methodological quality of existing psychometric evidence were provided. Lastly, a set of reflective questions were proposed for users to consider when selecting an instrument for health economic evaluations.

  1. Scientific and methodological tools of cost management of enterprises: the main approaches and proposals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Dikunova

    2017-01-01

    and analyzed the functionality of the system of supply and distribution that helped to create an element base for our study.In addition, the structural parts of the supply and marketing systems are defined that need to work in the process of cost management in industrial and defense industries.It was found that for creation of the effective, scientific-methodical instrument of cost management for supply and distribution it is necessary to study the main approaches, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of each. Besides, principles and methods are different when functioning of the strategic and operational levels of the management costs.Thus, the solution of the scientific task will be to study and develop the scientific methodology of cost management in industrial enterprises and enterprises of the military-industrial complex, essential for the solution of problems of pricing and optimization of production processes.

  2. An experimental strategy validated to design cost-effective culture media based on response surface methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarrete-Bolaños, J L; Téllez-Martínez, M G; Miranda-López, R; Jiménez-Islas, H

    2017-07-03

    For any fermentation process, the production cost depends on several factors, such as the genetics of the microorganism, the process condition, and the culture medium composition. In this work, a guideline for the design of cost-efficient culture media using a sequential approach based on response surface methodology is described. The procedure was applied to analyze and optimize a culture medium of registered trademark and a base culture medium obtained as a result of the screening analysis from different culture media used to grow the same strain according to the literature. During the experiments, the procedure quantitatively identified an appropriate array of micronutrients to obtain a significant yield and find a minimum number of culture medium ingredients without limiting the process efficiency. The resultant culture medium showed an efficiency that compares favorably with the registered trademark medium at a 95% lower cost as well as reduced the number of ingredients in the base culture medium by 60% without limiting the process efficiency. These results demonstrated that, aside from satisfying the qualitative requirements, an optimum quantity of each constituent is needed to obtain a cost-effective culture medium. Study process variables for optimized culture medium and scaling-up production for the optimal values are desirable.

  3. A methodology for estimating risks associated with landslides of contaminated soil into rivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göransson, Gunnel; Norrman, Jenny; Larson, Magnus; Alén, Claes; Rosén, Lars

    2014-02-15

    Urban areas adjacent to surface water are exposed to soil movements such as erosion and slope failures (landslides). A landslide is a potential mechanism for mobilisation and spreading of pollutants. This mechanism is in general not included in environmental risk assessments for contaminated sites, and the consequences associated with contamination in the soil are typically not considered in landslide risk assessments. This study suggests a methodology to estimate the environmental risks associated with landslides in contaminated sites adjacent to rivers. The methodology is probabilistic and allows for datasets with large uncertainties and the use of expert judgements, providing quantitative estimates of probabilities for defined failures. The approach is illustrated by a case study along the river Göta Älv, Sweden, where failures are defined and probabilities for those failures are estimated. Failures are defined from a pollution perspective and in terms of exceeding environmental quality standards (EQSs) and acceptable contaminant loads. Models are then suggested to estimate probabilities of these failures. A landslide analysis is carried out to assess landslide probabilities based on data from a recent landslide risk classification study along the river Göta Älv. The suggested methodology is meant to be a supplement to either landslide risk assessment (LRA) or environmental risk assessment (ERA), providing quantitative estimates of the risks associated with landslide in contaminated sites. The proposed methodology can also act as a basis for communication and discussion, thereby contributing to intersectoral management solutions. From the case study it was found that the defined failures are governed primarily by the probability of a landslide occurring. The overall probabilities for failure are low; however, if a landslide occurs the probabilities of exceeding EQS are high and the probability of having at least a 10% increase in the contamination load

  4. Energetic costs of mange in wolves estimated from infrared thermography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Paul C.; Almberg, Emily S.; Haase, Catherine G; Hudson, Peter J.; Maloney, Shane K; Metz, Matthew C; Munn, Adam J; Nugent, Paul; Putzeys, Olivier; Stahler, Daniel R.; Stewart, Anya C; Smith, Doug W.

    2016-01-01

    Parasites, by definition, extract energy from their hosts and thus affect trophic and food web dynamics even when the parasite may have limited effects on host population size. We studied the energetic costs of mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) in wolves (Canis lupus) using thermal cameras to estimate heat losses associated with compromised insulation during the winter. We combined the field data of known, naturally infected wolves with data set on captive wolves with shaved patches of fur as a positive control to simulate mange-induced hair loss. We predict that during the winter in Montana, more severe mange infection increases heat loss by around 5.2 to 12 MJ per night (1240 to 2850 kcal, or a 65% to 78% increase) for small and large wolves, respectively accounting for wind effects. To maintain body temperature would require a significant proportion of a healthy wolf's total daily energy demands (18-22 MJ/day). We also predict how these thermal costs may increase in colder climates by comparing our predictions in Bozeman, Montana to those from a place with lower ambient temperatures (Fairbanks, Alaska). Contrary to our expectations, the 14°C differential between these regions was not as important as the potential differences in wind speed. These large increases in energetic demands can be mitigated by either increasing consumption rates or decreasing other energy demands. Data from GPS-collared wolves indicated that healthy wolves move, on average, 17 km per day, which was reduced by 1.5, 1.8 and 6.5 km for light, medium, and severe hair loss. In addition, the wolf with the most hair loss was less active at night and more active during the day, which is the converse of the movement patterns of healthy wolves. At the individual level mange infections create significant energy demands and altered behavioral patterns, this may have cascading effects on prey consumption rates, food web dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and scavenger communities.

  5. Methodology of estimating restraint use in children: roadside observation or parking lot interview survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snowdon, Anne; Rothman, Linda; Slater, Morgan; Kolga, Carol; Hussein, Abdul; Boase, Paul; Howard, Andrew

    2010-11-01

    To compare the differences in Canadian national estimates of correct child restraint use obtained using the standard roadside observation method compared to a detailed parking lot interview. A multi-stage stratified survey design was used to conduct roadside observational and interview data collection at 182 randomly selected sites across Canada. For each site, a roadside intersection location and a parking lot location were used for the roadside observational survey and the interview respectively. Weighted estimates of correct restraint use from both locations were compared. Estimates of correct restraint use were significantly higher for all children under the age of 9 in the parking lot sample. The largest discrepancy between the two samples was in booster seat aged children (ages 4-8) where 29.1% versus 67.8% of children were observed to be correctly restrained using the roadside and the parking lot methodology respectively. There was a 67% participation refusal rate in the parking lot survey. There are specific advantages and limitations to both survey designs. The purpose of the data collection must be considered when selecting the methodology. Parking lot surveys provide richer data regarding restraint use/misuse. Estimates of correct restraint use must be approached with caution due to the effect of consent bias resulting in over inflation of estimates. Roadside observation is adequate and appropriate for providing national estimates of correct restraint use. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Assessment of radiotherapy photon beams: A practical and low cost methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, C. Q. M.; Nicolucci, P.

    2017-02-01

    Dosimetric properties of radiation beams used in radiotherapy are directly related to the energy spectrum produced by the treatment unit. Therefore, the development of methodologies to evaluate in a simple and accurate way the spectra of clinical beams can help establishing the quality control of the treatment. The purpose of this study is to present a practical and low cost methodology for determining primary spectra of radiotherapy photon beams from transmission measurements in attenuators of aluminum and using the method of the inverse Laplace transform. Monte Carlo simulation with PENELOPE code was used in order to evaluate and validate the reconstructed spectra by the calculation of dosimetric parameters that characterize the beam. Percentage depth dose values simulated with a 6 MV reconstructed spectrum shows maximum difference of 4.4% when compared to values measured at the corresponding clinical beam. For a 10 MV beam that difference was around 4.2%. Results obtained in this study confirm the adequacy of the proposed methodology for assessing primary photon beams produced by clinical accelerators.

  7. Software Cost Estimation Using a Decision Graph Process: A Knowledge Engineering Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stukes, Sherry; Spagnuolo, John, Jr.

    2011-01-01

    This paper is not a description per se of the efforts by two software cost analysts. Rather, it is an outline of the methodology used for FSW cost analysis presented in a form that would serve as a foundation upon which others may gain insight into how to perform FSW cost analyses for their own problems at hand.

  8. Methodology to assess quality of estimated disturbances in active disturbance rejection control structure for mechanical system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosas, A David; Velazquez, V Karla; Olivares, F Luz; Camacho, T Adrian; Williams, Ivan

    2017-09-01

    A methodology to assess the quality of estimation of disturbances in mechanical systems, by state observers, in the control structure with active compensation of disturbances (ADRC) is presented. Evaluation is carried out by four performance indices that depend on the steady-state error between reference signals and output of the plant. These indices are related with the accuracy and precision of the closed loop system in the sense of norms L2 and L∞, for a set of reference signals representing the typical operating conditions of the mechanism. The effectiveness of the methodology is illustrated with the quality assessment of the estimated disturbance of five state observers to control of a simple pendulum and validated on a SCARA robot arm. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A statistical methodology for the estimation of extreme wave conditions for offshore renewable applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kalogeri, Christina; Galanis, George

    2015-01-01

    Accurate estimation of extreme wave conditions is critical for offshore renewable energy activities and applications. The use of numerical wind and wave models gives a credible and convenient way of monitoring the general atmospheric and sea state conditions, especially in the absence of sufficient...... observational networks. However, when focusing on the study of non-frequent cases, in particular over coastal areas, increased uncertainty in the model outputs and accordingly in the reliability of the estimation of extreme waves becomes an important issue. The current study introduces a methodology to validate...... as a characteristic index of extreme wave conditions. The results from the proposed methodology seem to be in a good agreement with the measurements at both the relatively deep, open water and the shallow, coastal water sites, providing a potentially useful tool for offshore renewable energy applications. © 2015...

  10. [Estimation of hospital costs of colorectal cancer in Catalonia (Spain)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corral, Julieta; Borràs, Josep Maria; Chiarello, Pietro; García-Alzorriz, Enric; Macià, Francesc; Reig, Anna; Mateu de Antonio, Javier; Castells, Xavier; Cots, Francesc

    2015-01-01

    To assess the hospital cost associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) treatment by stage at diagnosis, type of cost and disease phase in a public hospital. A retrospective analysis was conducted of the hospital costs associated with a cohort of 699 patients diagnosed with CRC and treated for this disease between 2000 and 2006 in a teaching hospital and who had a 5-year follow-up from the time of diagnosis. Data were collected from clinical-administrative databases. Mean costs per patient were analysed by stage at diagnosis, cost type and disease phase. The mean cost per patient ranged from 6,573 Euros for patients with a diagnosis of CRC in situ to 36,894 € in those diagnosed in stage III. The main cost components were surgery-inpatient care (59.2%) and chemotherapy (19.4%). Advanced disease stages were associated with a decrease in the relative weight of surgical and inpatient care costs and an increase in chemotherapy costs. This study provides the costs of CRC treatment based on clinical practice, with chemotherapy and surgery accounting for the major cost components. This cost analysis is a baseline study that will provide a useful source of information for future studies on cost-effectiveness and on the budget impact of different therapeutic innovations in Spain. Copyright © 2015 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  11. Techniques for estimating health care costs with censored data: an overview for the health services researcher.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Wang, Xuesong; Tomlinson, George; Ko, Dennis T; Krahn, Murray D

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to review statistical techniques for estimating the mean population cost using health care cost data that, because of the inability to achieve complete follow-up until death, are right censored. The target audience is health service researchers without an advanced statistical background. Data were sourced from longitudinal heart failure costs from Ontario, Canada, and administrative databases were used for estimating costs. The dataset consisted of 43,888 patients, with follow-up periods ranging from 1 to 1538 days (mean 576 days). The study was designed so that mean health care costs over 1080 days of follow-up were calculated using naïve estimators such as full-sample and uncensored case estimators. Reweighted estimators - specifically, the inverse probability weighted estimator - were calculated, as was phase-based costing. Costs were adjusted to 2008 Canadian dollars using the Bank of Canada consumer price index (http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/cpi.html). Over the restricted follow-up of 1080 days, 32% of patients were censored. The full-sample estimator was found to underestimate mean cost ($30,420) compared with the reweighted estimators ($36,490). The phase-based costing estimate of $37,237 was similar to that of the simple reweighted estimator. The authors recommend against the use of full-sample or uncensored case estimators when censored data are present. In the presence of heavy censoring, phase-based costing is an attractive alternative approach.

  12. Different approaches to estimating transition costs in the electric- utility industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baxter, L.W.

    1995-10-01

    The term ``transition costs`` describes the potential revenue shortfall (or welfare loss) a utility (or other actor) may experience through government-initiated deregulation of electricity generation. The potential for transition costs arises whenever a regulated industry is subject to competitive market forces as a result of explicit government action. Federal and state proposals to deregulate electricity generation sparked a national debate on transition costs in the electric-utility industry. Industry-wide transition cost estimates range from about $20 billion to $500 billion. Such disparate estimates raise important questions on estimation methods for decision makers. This report examines different approaches to estimating transition costs. The study has three objectives. First, we discuss the concept of transition cost. Second, we identify the major cost categories included in transition cost estimates and summarize the current debate on which specific costs are appropriately included in these estimates. Finally, we identify general and specific estimation approaches and assess their strengths and weaknesses. We relied primarily on the evidentiary records established at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the California Public Utilities Commission to identify major cost categories and specific estimation approaches. We also contacted regulatory commission staffs in ten states to ascertain estimation activities in each of these states. We refined a classification framework to describe and assess general estimation options. We subsequently developed and applied criteria to describe and assess specific estimation approaches proposed by federal regulators, state regulators, utilities, independent power companies, and consultants.

  13. Development of cost estimation tools for total occupational safety and health activities and occupational health services: cost estimation from a corporate perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagata, Tomohisa; Mori, Koji; Aratake, Yutaka; Ide, Hiroshi; Ishida, Hiromi; Nobori, Junichiro; Kojima, Reiko; Odagami, Kiminori; Kato, Anna; Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Matsuda, Shinya

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to develop standardized cost estimation tools that provide information to employers about occupational safety and health (OSH) activities for effective and efficient decision making in Japanese companies. We interviewed OSH staff members including full-time professional occupational physicians to list all OSH activities. Using activity-based costing, cost data were obtained from retrospective analyses of occupational safety and health costs over a 1-year period in three manufacturing workplaces and were obtained from retrospective analyses of occupational health services costs in four manufacturing workplaces. We verified the tools additionally in four workplaces including service businesses. We created the OSH and occupational health standardized cost estimation tools. OSH costs consisted of personnel costs, expenses, outsourcing costs and investments for 15 OSH activities. The tools provided accurate, relevant information on OSH activities and occupational health services. The standardized information obtained from our OSH and occupational health cost estimation tools can be used to manage OSH costs, make comparisons of OSH costs between companies and organizations and help occupational health physicians and employers to determine the best course of action.

  14. A parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology applied to a street canyon air pollution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottosen, Thor Bjørn; Ketzel, Matthias; Skov, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street...... applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd...

  15. Methodology for estimating human perception to tremors in high-rise buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Wenqi; Goh, Key Seng; Pan, Tso-Chien

    2017-07-01

    Human perception to tremors during earthquakes in high-rise buildings is usually associated with psychological discomfort such as fear and anxiety. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the level of perception to tremors for occupants living in high-rise buildings subjected to ground motion excitations. Unlike other approaches based on empirical or historical data, the proposed methodology performs a regression analysis using the analytical results of two generic models of 15 and 30 stories. The recorded ground motions in Singapore are collected and modified for structural response analyses. Simple predictive models are then developed to estimate the perception level to tremors based on a proposed ground motion intensity parameter—the average response spectrum intensity in the period range between 0.1 and 2.0 s. These models can be used to predict the percentage of occupants in high-rise buildings who may perceive the tremors at a given ground motion intensity. Furthermore, the models are validated with two recent tremor events reportedly felt in Singapore. It is found that the estimated results match reasonably well with the reports in the local newspapers and from the authorities. The proposed methodology is applicable to urban regions where people living in high-rise buildings might feel tremors during earthquakes.

  16. Cost Estimates Of Concentrated Photovoltaic Heat Sink Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    generation. As the CPV market has matured, production costs have come down to near flat-panel photovoltaic (PV) production costs. CPV units...has matured, production costs have come down to near flat-panel photovoltaic (PV) production costs. CPV units outperform flat-panel PV units in areas...Adam Plesniak Dr. Jesse Cunha Dr. Peter Crooker Dr. Anthony Gannon Dr. Garth Hobson LCDR Derek Fletcher, U.S. Navy Janice Long Most

  17. The implementation of the Quality Costs Methodology in the Public Transport Enterprise in Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeta Mitreva

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of TQM (Total Quality Management strategy in the public transport enterprises in Macedonia means improving the quality of services through examination of business processes not just in terms of defining, improvement and design of the process, but also improvement of productivity and optimization of the costs of quality. The purpose of this study is to point out the importance of determining the quality of the transport services, its methods, and techniques for measurement of the optimization of business processes in particular. The analysis of the quality costs when providing transport services can help managers to understand the impact of poor quality on the financial results and the bad image it gives to the enterprise. In this study, we proposed and applied the model for better performance and higher efficiency of the transport enterprise, through the optimization of business processes, change in the corporate culture and use of the complete business potentials. The need for this methodology was imposed as a result of the analysis made in the company in terms of whether is it doing an analysis on the costs of quality or not. The benefits from the utilization of this model will not only lead to increasing the business performance of the transport enterprise, but this model will also serve as a driving force for continuous improvements to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.

  18. Electric power transport costs - methodologies analysis; Custos de transporte de energia eletrica: analise de metodologias

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takahata, Dario

    1997-07-01

    The dissertation presents the aspects related to the restructuring of power systems in terms of international experiences, and the possible implications for the definition of the new power system in Brazil. The experience shows that the reform in various countries has started from the sector deverticalization, together with the transmissions open access scheme. The retrospect of researched countries indicates that the transmissions remuneration is based on a methodology that recovers the operative cost of transmission transactions, along with an additional amount that take into account the cost of the existing transmission system. The following countries have been analyzed: Chile, Norway, England and Argentina. This work also shows the current situation in Brazil, as in terms of tariffs, as regarding the power system organizational structure, as well as a preliminary proposal conceived by SINTREL (National System of Electrical Energy Transmission) to evaluate the transmission transaction cost. This dissertation ended with comments and conclusions, depicting a future program which might be followed, considering the aspects quoted above and the peculiarities of brazilian power system. (author)

  19. Cost estimators for construction of forest roads in the central Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah, A. Layton; Chris O. LeDoux; Curt C. Hassler; Curt C. Hassler

    1992-01-01

    Regression equations were developed for estimating the total cost of road construction in the central Appalachian region. Estimators include methods for predicting total costs for roads constructed using hourly rental methods and roads built on a total-job bid basis. Results show that total-job bid roads cost up to five times as much as roads built than when equipment...

  20. New cost estimates for carbon sequestration through afforestation in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne Sofie Elburg Nielsen; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2014-01-01

    This report provides new cost estimates for carbon sequestration through afforestation in the United States. We extend existing studies of carbon sequestration costs in several important ways, while ensuring the transparency of our approach. We clearly identify all components of our cost estimates so that other researchers can reconstruct our results as well as use our...

  1. ABC estimation of unit costs for emergency department services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, R L; Schroeder, R E

    1996-04-01

    Rapid evolution of the health care industry forces managers to make cost-effective decisions. Typical hospital cost accounting systems do not provide emergency department managers with the information needed, but emergency department settings are so complex and dynamic as to make the more accurate activity-based costing (ABC) system prohibitively expensive. Through judicious use of the available traditional cost accounting information and simple computer spreadsheets. managers may approximate the decision-guiding information that would result from the much more costly and time-consuming implementation of ABC.

  2. 48 CFR 9904.401 - Cost accounting standard-consistency in estimating, accumulating and reporting costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Cost accounting standard... Regulations System COST ACCOUNTING STANDARDS BOARD, OFFICE OF FEDERAL PROCUREMENT POLICY, OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET PROCUREMENT PRACTICES AND COST ACCOUNTING STANDARDS COST ACCOUNTING STANDARDS 9904.401 Cost...

  3. A new approach for product cost estimation using data envelopment analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adil Salam

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation of new products has always been difficult as only few design, manufacturing and operational features will be known. In these situations, parametric or non-parametric methods are commonly used to estimate the cost of a product given the corresponding cost drivers. The parametric models use priori determined cost function where the parameters of the function are evaluated from historical data. Non-parametric methods, on the other hand, attempt to fit curves to the historic data without predetermined function. In both methods, it is assumed that the historic data used in the analysis is a true representation of the relation between the cost drivers and the corresponding costs. However, because of efficiency variations of the manufacturers and suppliers, changes in supplier selections, market fluctuations, and several other reasons, certain costs in the historic data may be too high whereas other costs may represent better deals for their corresponding cost drivers. Thus, it may be important to rank the historic data and identify benchmarks and estimate the target costs of the product based on these benchmarks. In this paper, a novel adaptation of cost drivers and cost data is introduced in order to use data envelopment analysis for the purpose of ranking cost data and identify benchmarks, and then estimate the target costs of a new product based on these benchmarks. An illustrative case study has been presented for the cost estimation of landing gears of an aircraft manufactured by an aerospace company located in Montreal, CANADA.

  4. Estimation of retired mobile phones generation in China: A comparative study on methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Bo [State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqing Road 18, Haidian District, Beijing 100085 (China); Yang, Jianxin, E-mail: yangjx@rcees.ac.cn [State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqing Road 18, Haidian District, Beijing 100085 (China); Lu, Bin [State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqing Road 18, Haidian District, Beijing 100085 (China); Song, Xiaolong [Shanghai Cooperative Centre for WEEE Recycling, Shanghai Second Polytechnic University, Jinhai Road 2360, Pudong District, Shanghai 201209 (China)

    2015-01-15

    Highlights: • The sales data of mobile phones in China was revised by considering the amount of smuggled and counterfeit mobile phones. • The estimation of retired mobile phones in China was made by comparing some relevant methods. • The advanced result of estimation can help improve the policy-making. • The method suggested in this paper can be also used in other countries. • Some discussions on methodology are also conducted in order for the improvement. - Abstract: Due to the rapid development of economy and technology, China has the biggest production and possession of mobile phones around the world. In general, mobile phones have relatively short life time because the majority of users replace their mobile phones frequently. Retired mobile phones represent the most valuable electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) in the main waste stream because of such characteristics as large quantity, high reuse/recovery value and fast replacement frequency. Consequently, the huge amount of retired mobile phones in China calls for a sustainable management system. The generation estimation can provide fundamental information to construct the sustainable management system of retired mobile phones and other waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). However, the reliable estimation result is difficult to get and verify. The priority aim of this paper is to provide proper estimation approach for the generation of retired mobile phones in China, by comparing some relevant methods. The results show that the sales and new method is in the highest priority in estimation of the retired mobile phones. The result of sales and new method shows that there are 47.92 million mobile phones retired in 2002, and it reached to 739.98 million in China in 2012. It presents an increasing tendency with some fluctuations clearly. Furthermore, some discussions on methodology, such as the selection of improper approach and error in the input data, are also conducted in order to

  5. Potentials and costs for mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union until 2030. Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeglund-Isaksson, L.; Winiwarter, W. [Atmospheric Pollution and Economic Development programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Tohka, A. [Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Helsinki (Finland)

    2009-07-15

    This report documents the approaches taken to include greenhouse gases other than CO2 (methane, nitrous oxide, and the fluorinated gases explicitly mentioned in the Kyoto protocol) in the GAINS model as used to assess costs and potential of greenhouse gas mitigation in the 'Annex I' countries to the Kyoto protocol. Annex I countries are those signatories to the protocol which agreed to legally binding emission reductions. The implementation greatly benefited from international statistical data sources, but also from the data submission to UNFCCC by the individual countries. For each source sector and greenhouse gas considered, the methods to derive the emissions under uncontrolled and controlled conditions are presented, as well as the method to estimate the costs of control measures, if applicable. While methane and nitrous oxide emissions frequently occur in the identical sectors, emission of fluorinated gases occur separately. This reports documents the basic features of the methodology, and presents a general evaluation of data quality in terms of comparing national data with GAINS results, considering the respective national circumstances. Actual input data for calculations is available via the on-line version of the GAINS model at http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/.

  6. Estimating Engineering and Manufacturing Development Cost Risk Using Logistic and Multiple Regression

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bielecki, John

    2003-01-01

    .... Previous research has demonstrated the use of a two-step logistic and multiple regression methodology to predicting cost growth produces desirable results versus traditional single-step regression...

  7. Methodology of Evaluation of the Impact of Picking Area Location on the Total Costs of Warehouse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Apsalons Raitis

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The picking system and the layout of the picking area are the key drivers for the evaluation of a warehouse picking cost. There are five variants for organizing the picking process of orders in a warehouse. The choice of a specific variant depends on the total cost of picking. The picking cost is evaluated within an uninterrupted picking process. It means that no stock out occurs in the time period of the picking process. The storing area and the picking area are created as two separate zones for picking quantities of the customer’s orders; the principle of division of orders is observed strictly. Referring to the locations of stock keeping units (SKU, two approaches of the layout of SKU in the picking area can be estimated. The first one is the single picking location for each single SKU, where replenishment is realized in the picking process. The second one - various picking locations for each single SKU, and the replenishment here is realized just only prior to a picking process or after it. The main benefits of the economy of the picking cost as far as these two approaches are concerned are the shortest picking route in the first case and one common replenishment option in the second case.

  8. Healthcare costs associated with prostate cancer : estimates from a population-based study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krahn, Murray D.; Zagorski, Brandon; Laporte, Audrey; Alibhai, Shabbir M. H.; Bremner, Karen E.; Tomlinson, George; Warde, Padraig; Naglie, Gary

    OBJECTIVE To estimate the total healthcare costs and costs attributable to prostate cancer across all stages of disease, and to determine the predictors of those costs, as describing the cost of care for patients with prostate cancer is useful to understand the economic burden of illness, explore

  9. Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States. Methodology and Initial Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Austin; Beiter, Philipp; Heimiller, Donna; Davidson, Carolyn; Denholm, Paul; Melius, Jennifer; Lopez, Anthony; Hettinger, Dylan; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2016-08-01

    This report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, may be defined in several ways. For example, one definition might be expected revenues (based on local market prices) minus generation costs, considered over the expected lifetime of the generation asset. Another definition might be generation costs relative to a benchmark (e.g., a natural gas combined cycle plant) using assumptions of fuel prices, capital cost, and plant efficiency. Economic potential in this report is defined as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity. The assessment is conducted at a high geospatial resolution (more than 150,000 technology-specific sites in the continental United States) to capture the significant variation in local resource, costs, and revenue potential. This metric can be a useful screening factor for understanding the economic viability of renewable generation technologies at a specific location. In contrast to many common estimates of renewable energy potential, economic potential does not consider market dynamics, customer demand, or most policy drivers that may incent renewable energy generation.

  10. Estimating the direct and indirect costs associated with Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Blázquez, Carmen; Forjaz, Maria João; Lizán, Luis; Paz, Silvia; Martínez-Martín, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive, neurodegenerative disorder whose symptoms and manifestations greatly deteriorate the health, functional status and quality of life of patients, has severe consequences on their families and caregivers and supposes a challenge for the healthcare system and society. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively and descriptively review studies on the economic impact of the disease and interventions, analyzing major contributing factors to direct and indirect costs in PD. Cost-of-illness studies have shown that costs of PD are high, mainly due to drug, hospitalization and productivity loss, and tend to increase as the disease progresses. Studies on PD treatment have suggested that therapies for advanced PD (levodopa/carbidopa intestinal gel and apomorphine) and surgical procedures are cost-effective and cost saving, despite their high expenditures; however, further research such as on the economic impact of non-motor manifestations or on the cost-effectiveness of non-medical interventions is still needed.

  11. Statistical Analysis of Complexity Generators for Cost Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowell, Ginger Holmes

    1999-01-01

    Predicting the cost of cutting edge new technologies involved with spacecraft hardware can be quite complicated. A new feature of the NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), called the Complexity Generator, is being developed to model the complexity factors that drive the cost of space hardware. This parametric approach is also designed to account for the differences in cost, based on factors that are unique to each system and subsystem. The cost driver categories included in this model are weight, inheritance from previous missions, technical complexity, and management factors. This paper explains the Complexity Generator framework, the statistical methods used to select the best model within this framework, and the procedures used to find the region of predictability and the prediction intervals for the cost of a mission.

  12. The welfare costs of rent-seeking: a methodologically individualist and subjectivist revision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Makovi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Gordon Tullock is acknowledged for being the first to recognize the true costs of rent-seeking as including not only the Harberger triangle but also the Tullock rectangle. This rectangle does not constitute merely a lossless transfer of wealth, but it causes a misallocation of resources as rent-seekers invest resources in lobbying. However, a close reading of Tullock’s writings shows that his arguments are formulated in a holistic fashion, speaking of what is efficient or inefficient for society. Rent-seeking is inefficient because it reduces societal welfare. But according to a methodologically individualist and subjectivist economics, such a claim is invalid. We must distinguish between positive economic fact and normative moral philosophy. We call for a reconstruction of utility and welfare economics based on methodological individualism and subjectivism with implications for the theories of monopoly and competition: practices which Neoclassical perfect-competition theory considers to be evidence of rent-seeking should instead be deemed as indications of genuine competition Political economy should be concerned with ascertaining which institutions will best enable individuals to pursue their individually subjective ends – or else economists should be explicit about their normative preferences and political philosophies.

  13. Cost Estimation of Post Production Software Support in Ground Combat Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cannon, Christopher J

    2007-01-01

    .... Life cycle software costs are divided into two phases, development and maintenance. There are numerous popular models to aid developers and independent estimators in predicting costs and schedules for software development...

  14. 28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... each cost element, consistent with the carrier's cost accounting system. (4) When more than one line... element. (5) Depending on the carrier's accounting system, the carrier shall provide breakdowns for the... materials, parts, software, components, and assemblies. For all items proposed, identify the item, source...

  15. COST ESTIMATION MODELS FOR DRINKING WATER TREATMENT UNIT PROCESSES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cost models for unit processes typically utilized in a conventional water treatment plant and in package treatment plant technology are compiled in this paper. The cost curves are represented as a function of specified design parameters and are categorized into four major catego...

  16. Cost and Benefit of Control Strategies - Estimation of Benefit functions, enforcement-probability function and enforcement-cost function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kronbak, Lone Grønbæk; Jensen, Frank

    levels and 4) the connection between different enforcement levels and costs. The purpose of estimating the functional relationships are for future application in the COBECOS computer modeling in order to carry out an cost-benefit analysis of control strategies and thereby find the optimal mix and level...

  17. Improving Space Project Cost Estimating with Engineering Management Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamaker, Joseph W.; Roth, Axel (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Current space project cost models attempt to predict space flight project cost via regression equations, which relate the cost of projects to technical performance metrics (e.g. weight, thrust, power, pointing accuracy, etc.). This paper examines the introduction of engineering management parameters to the set of explanatory variables. A number of specific engineering management variables are considered and exploratory regression analysis is performed to determine if there is statistical evidence for cost effects apart from technical aspects of the projects. It is concluded that there are other non-technical effects at work and that further research is warranted to determine if it can be shown that these cost effects are definitely related to engineering management.

  18. Estimating the Entropy of Binary Time Series: Methodology, Some Theory and a Simulation Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elie Bienenstock

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Partly motivated by entropy-estimation problems in neuroscience, we present a detailed and extensive comparison between some of the most popular and effective entropy estimation methods used in practice: The plug-in method, four different estimators based on the Lempel-Ziv (LZ family of data compression algorithms, an estimator based on the Context-Tree Weighting (CTW method, and the renewal entropy estimator. METHODOLOGY: Three new entropy estimators are introduced; two new LZ-based estimators, and the “renewal entropy estimator,” which is tailored to data generated by a binary renewal process. For two of the four LZ-based estimators, a bootstrap procedure is described for evaluating their standard error, and a practical rule of thumb is heuristically derived for selecting the values of their parameters in practice. THEORY: We prove that, unlike their earlier versions, the two new LZ-based estimators are universally consistent, that is, they converge to the entropy rate for every finite-valued, stationary and ergodic process. An effective method is derived for the accurate approximation of the entropy rate of a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM with known distribution. Heuristic calculations are presented and approximate formulas are derived for evaluating the bias and the standard error of each estimator. SIMULATION: All estimators are applied to a wide range of data generated by numerous different processes with varying degrees of dependence and memory. The main conclusions drawn from these experiments include: (i For all estimators considered, the main source of error is the bias. (ii The CTW method is repeatedly and consistently seen to provide the most accurate results. (iii The performance of the LZ-based estimators is often comparable to that of the plug-in method. (iv The main drawback of the plug-in method is its computational inefficiency; with small word-lengths it fails to detect longer-range structure in

  19. Estimating the Entropy of Binary Time Series: Methodology, Some Theory and a Simulation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yun; Kontoyiannis, Ioannis; Bienenstock, Elie

    2008-06-01

    Partly motivated by entropy-estimation problems in neuroscience, we present a detailed and extensive comparison between some of the most popular and effective entropy estimation methods used in practice: The plug-in method, four different estimators based on the Lempel-Ziv (LZ) family of data compression algorithms, an estimator based on the Context-Tree Weighting (CTW) method, and the renewal entropy estimator. METHODOLOGY: Three new entropy estimators are introduced; two new LZ-based estimators, and the “renewal entropy estimator,” which is tailored to data generated by a binary renewal process. For two of the four LZ-based estimators, a bootstrap procedure is described for evaluating their standard error, and a practical rule of thumb is heuristically derived for selecting the values of their parameters in practice. THEORY: We prove that, unlike their earlier versions, the two new LZ-based estimators are universally consistent, that is, they converge to the entropy rate for every finite-valued, stationary and ergodic process. An effective method is derived for the accurate approximation of the entropy rate of a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM) with known distribution. Heuristic calculations are presented and approximate formulas are derived for evaluating the bias and the standard error of each estimator. SIMULATION: All estimators are applied to a wide range of data generated by numerous different processes with varying degrees of dependence and memory. The main conclusions drawn from these experiments include: (i) For all estimators considered, the main source of error is the bias. (ii) The CTW method is repeatedly and consistently seen to provide the most accurate results. (iii) The performance of the LZ-based estimators is often comparable to that of the plug-in method. (iv) The main drawback of the plug-in method is its computational inefficiency; with small word-lengths it fails to detect longer-range structure in the data, and with longer word

  20. Estimating the cost of operating cancer registries: Experience in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Esther; Pardo, Constanza; Arias, Nelson; Bravo, Luis Eduardo; Navarro, Edgar; Uribe, Claudia; Yepez, María Clara; Jurado, Daniel; Garci, Luz Stella; Piñeros, Marion; Edwards, Patrick; Beebe, Maggie Cole; Tangka, Florence; Subramanian, Sujha

    2016-12-01

    Maintaining population-based registries requires adequate and sustained resources; however, to date there has been no systematic evaluation to identify the resource needs for cancer registration in most countries, including Colombia. A systematic assessment of the costs can quantify the funding required and identify processes to improve efficiency of cancer registries. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) International Registry Costing Tool (IntRegCosting Tool) was tailored specifically for the Colombian registries and was used to collect resource use data from five regional population-based cancer registries: Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Cali, Manizales, and Pasto. The registries provided cost data for the year 2013 and cancer cases corresponding to the year 2010. We identified an almost threefold variation in the average cost per case (77,932 to 214,082 Colombian pesos or US $41 to US $113 in 2013) across the registries, but there were also substantial differences in data collection approaches, types of data collected, and activities performed. Cost per inhabitant varied between 95 and 415 Colombian pesos (US $0.05 to US $0.22). Between 20% and 45% of the total cost was due to fixed cost activities. The detailed economic information presented in this study constitutes a valuable source of activity-based cost data that registries can use to compare operations, assess key factors that lead to differences in cost per case, and identify potential approaches to improve efficiencies. Furthermore, the knowledge gained from studying the Colombian registries can help inform the planning and operations of other registries in the region. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. A methodology for estimating the contribution of malnutrition to child mortality in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, D L; Frongillo, E A; Schroeder, D G; Habicht, J P

    1994-10-01

    According to conventional methods of classifying cause of death, approximately 70% of child deaths (0-4 y) worldwide are due to a small number of priority infectious diseases which, in turn, receive the vast majority of donor and national resources in the health sector. Despite the long-recognized synergism between malnutrition and infection in the causation of child mortality, malnutrition does not appear as a major cause of death in health statistics from developing countries. Part of the reason for this has been the difficulty of estimating the percent of deaths due to malnutrition, because the conventional methods of classifying cause of death do not recognize the potentiating effect of malnutrition on the disease. The purpose of this paper is to develop and test a simple methodology to estimate the percent of child deaths in a given country or community that is due to malnutrition's potentiating effects on prevailing infectious diseases. The cornerstone of the methodology is knowledge of the strength of the association between malnutrition and mortality in developing countries, as measured in eight prospective studies. These studies reveal remarkable consistency in relative risk across different grades of malnutrition. The mean and SE of relative risk for severe malnutrition is 8.4 +/- 2.1, for moderate malnutrition it is 4.6 +/- 0.9, and for mild malnutrition it is 2.5 +/- 0.3. When applied to survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Guatemala and India for illustrative purposes, this methodology indicates that 42-57% of all child deaths in these samples (6-59 mo) are due to malnutrition's potentiating effects on infectious disease, of which 76-89% is attributable to mild-to-moderate malnutrition. This methodology is recommended for use in a variety of policy and planning applications.

  2. Estimating small area health-related characteristics of populations: a methodological review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizur Rahman

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of health-related characteristics at a fine local geographic level is vital for effective health promotion programmes, provision of better health services and population-specific health planning and management. Lack of a micro-dataset readily available for attributes of individuals at small areas negatively impacts the ability of local and national agencies to manage serious health issues and related risks in the community. A solution to this challenge would be to develop a method that simulates reliable small-area statistics. This paper provides a significant appraisal of the methodologies for estimating health-related characteristics of populations at geographical limited areas. Findings reveal that a range of methodologies are in use, which can be classified as three distinct set of approaches: i indirect standardisation and individual level modelling; ii multilevel statistical modelling; and iii micro-simulation modelling. Although each approach has its own strengths and weaknesses, it appears that microsimulation- based spatial models have significant robustness over the other methods and also represent a more precise means of estimating health-related population characteristics over small areas.

  3. Design of methodology for wood chips moisture estimation determined for gasification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukáč, Ladislav; Kuna, Štefan; Kizek, Ján; Repášová, Magdaléna

    2014-03-01

    The moisture content of the charged wood chips is a significant factor affecting the gasification process. The increased moisture content increases the demand on the energy consumption, which is needed to cover the heat consumption related to the water evaporation and adversely affects the wood gas quality and input fuel amount. Monitoring of the moisture content in wood chips is therefore the diagnostic tools suitable to evaluate the operational parameters of the whole gasification process. Present paper describes the design of the suitable methodology to measure and estimate the wood chips moisture content. The issues related to the moisture content estimation include preliminary the selection of the suitable methodology based on the assumed moisture content in the wood chips. Further factor which needs to be considered is the fact that the moisture content in wood chips is time dependent due to the changing parameters of the ambient air (as temperature, pressure and air humidity). Correctly estimated moisture content will enable to improve the wood chips gasification process.

  4. Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States: Methodology and Initial Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Austin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Beiter, Philipp [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Davidson, Carolyn [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melius, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hettinger, Dylan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-08-01

    The report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, is defined in this report as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity.

  5. Estimating costs of sea lice control strategy in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yajie; Bjelland, Hans Vanhauwaer

    2014-12-01

    This paper explores the costs of sea lice control strategies associated with salmon aquaculture at a farm level in Norway. Diseases can cause reduction in growth, low feed efficiency and market prices, increasing mortality rates, and expenditures on prevention and treatment measures. Aquaculture farms suffer the most direct and immediate economic losses from diseases. The goal of a control strategy is to minimize the total disease costs, including biological losses, and treatment costs while to maximize overall profit. Prevention and control strategies are required to eliminate or minimize the disease, while cost-effective disease control strategies at the fish farm level are designed to reduce the losses, and to enhance productivity and profitability. Thus, the goal can be achieved by integrating models of fish growth, sea lice dynamics and economic factors. A production function is first constructed to incorporate the effects of sea lice on production at a farm level, followed by a detailed cost analysis of several prevention and treatment strategies associated with sea lice in Norway. The results reveal that treatments are costly and treatment costs are very sensitive to treatment types used and timing of the treatment conducted. Applying treatment at an early growth stage is more economical than at a later stage. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Erosion processes by water in agricultural landscapes: a low-cost methodology for post-event analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosdocimi, Massimo; Calligaro, Simone; Sofia, Giulia; Tarolli, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    Throughout the world, agricultural landscapes assume a great importance, especially for supplying food and a livelihood. Among the land degradation phenomena, erosion processes caused by water are those that may most affect the benefits provided by agricultural lands and endanger people who work and live there. In particular, erosion processes that affect the banks of agricultural channels may cause the bank failure and represent, in this way, a severe threat to floodplain inhabitants and agricultural crops. Similarly, rills and gullies are critical soil erosion processes as well, because they bear upon the productivity of a farm and represent a cost that growers have to deal with. To estimate quantitatively soil losses due to bank erosion and rills processes, area based measurements of surface changes are necessary but, sometimes, they may be difficult to realize. In fact, surface changes due to short-term events have to be represented with fine resolution and their monitoring may entail too much money and time. The main objective of this work is to show the effectiveness of a user-friendly and low-cost technique that may even rely on smart-phones, for the post-event analyses of i) bank erosion affecting agricultural channels, and ii) rill processes occurring on an agricultural plot. Two case studies were selected and located in the Veneto floodplain (northeast Italy) and Marche countryside (central Italy), respectively. The work is based on high-resolution topographic data obtained by the emerging, low-cost photogrammetric method named Structure-from-Motion (SfM). Extensive photosets of the case studies were obtained using both standalone reflex digital cameras and smart-phone built-in cameras. Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) derived from SfM revealed to be effective to estimate quantitatively erosion volumes and, in the case of the bank eroded, deposited materials as well. SfM applied to pictures taken by smartphones is useful for the analysis of the topography

  7. A Methodology for Estimating Large-Customer Demand Response MarketPotential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, Charles; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Cappers,Peter

    2007-08-01

    Demand response (DR) is increasingly recognized as an essential ingredient to well-functioning electricity markets. DR market potential studies can answer questions about the amount of DR available in a given area and from which market segments. Several recent DR market potential studies have been conducted, most adapting techniques used to estimate energy-efficiency (EE) potential. In this scoping study, we: reviewed and categorized seven recent DR market potential studies; recommended a methodology for estimating DR market potential for large, non-residential utility customers that uses price elasticities to account for behavior and prices; compiled participation rates and elasticity values from six DR options offered to large customers in recent years, and demonstrated our recommended methodology with large customer market potential scenarios at an illustrative Northeastern utility. We observe that EE and DR have several important differences that argue for an elasticity approach for large-customer DR options that rely on customer-initiated response to prices, rather than the engineering approaches typical of EE potential studies. Base-case estimates suggest that offering DR options to large, non-residential customers results in 1-3% reductions in their class peak demand in response to prices or incentive payments of $500/MWh. Participation rates (i.e., enrollment in voluntary DR programs or acceptance of default hourly pricing) have the greatest influence on DR impacts of all factors studied, yet are the least well understood. Elasticity refinements to reflect the impact of enabling technologies and response at high prices provide more accurate market potential estimates, particularly when arc elasticities (rather than substitution elasticities) are estimated.

  8. Methods for the estimation of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence cost-effectiveness threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claxton, Karl; Martin, Steve; Soares, Marta; Rice, Nigel; Spackman, Eldon; Hinde, Sebastian; Devlin, Nancy; Smith, Peter C; Sculpher, Mark

    2015-02-01

    overestimate. The health effects of changes in expenditure are greater when PCTs are under more financial pressure and are more likely to be disinvesting than investing. This indicates that the central estimate of the threshold is likely to be an overestimate for all technologies which impose net costs on the NHS and the appropriate threshold to apply should be lower for technologies which have a greater impact on NHS costs. The central estimate is based on identifying a preferred analysis at each stage based on the analysis that made the best use of available information, whether or not the assumptions required appeared more reasonable than the other alternatives available, and which provided a more complete picture of the likely health effects of a change in expenditure. However, the limitation of currently available data means that there is substantial uncertainty associated with the estimate of the overall threshold. The methods go some way to providing an empirical estimate of the scale of opportunity costs the NHS faces when considering whether or not the health benefits associated with new technologies are greater than the health that is likely to be lost elsewhere in the NHS. Priorities for future research include estimating the threshold for subsequent waves of expenditure and outcome data, for example by utilising expenditure and outcomes available at the level of Clinical Commissioning Groups as well as additional data collected on QoL and updated estimates of incidence (by age and gender) and duration of disease. Nonetheless, the study also starts to make the other NHS patients, who ultimately bear the opportunity costs of such decisions, less abstract and more 'known' in social decisions. The National Institute for Health Research-Medical Research Council Methodology Research Programme.

  9. Estimates and implications of the costs of compliance with biosafety regulations in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falck-Zepeda, Jose; Yorobe, Jose; Husin, Bahagiawati Amir; Manalo, Abraham; Lokollo, Erna; Ramon, Godfrey; Zambrano, Patricia; Sutrisno

    2012-01-01

    Estimating the cost of compliance with biosafety regulations is important as it helps developers focus their investments in producer development. We provide estimates for the cost of compliance for a set of technologies in Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries. These costs vary from US $100,000 to 1.7 million. These are estimates of regulatory costs and do not include product development or deployment costs. Cost estimates need to be compared with potential gains when the technology is introduced in these countries and the gains in knowledge accumulate during the biosafety assessment process. Although the cost of compliance is important, time delays and uncertainty are even more important and may have an adverse impact on innovations reaching farmers.

  10. A regressive methodology for estimating missing data in rainfall daily time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barca, E.; Passarella, G.

    2009-04-01

    The "presence" of gaps in environmental data time series represents a very common, but extremely critical problem, since it can produce biased results (Rubin, 1976). Missing data plagues almost all surveys. The problem is how to deal with missing data once it has been deemed impossible to recover the actual missing values. Apart from the amount of missing data, another issue which plays an important role in the choice of any recovery approach is the evaluation of "missingness" mechanisms. When data missing is conditioned by some other variable observed in the data set (Schafer, 1997) the mechanism is called MAR (Missing at Random). Otherwise, when the missingness mechanism depends on the actual value of the missing data, it is called NCAR (Not Missing at Random). This last is the most difficult condition to model. In the last decade interest arose in the estimation of missing data by using regression (single imputation). More recently multiple imputation has become also available, which returns a distribution of estimated values (Scheffer, 2002). In this paper an automatic methodology for estimating missing data is presented. In practice, given a gauging station affected by missing data (target station), the methodology checks the randomness of the missing data and classifies the "similarity" between the target station and the other gauging stations spread over the study area. Among different methods useful for defining the similarity degree, whose effectiveness strongly depends on the data distribution, the Spearman correlation coefficient was chosen. Once defined the similarity matrix, a suitable, nonparametric, univariate, and regressive method was applied in order to estimate missing data in the target station: the Theil method (Theil, 1950). Even though the methodology revealed to be rather reliable an improvement of the missing data estimation can be achieved by a generalization. A first possible improvement consists in extending the univariate technique to

  11. Testing Estimates of Housing Cost Differences among US Metropolitan Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd Easton

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the accuracy of six measures of housing cost differences among US metropolitan areas. Using Census data from 177 metropolitan areas, it tests the measures in two ways. First, it tests the ability of changes in the measures to predict changes in the shelter component of the metropolitan CPI from 1990 to 2000. Second, it tests the ability of the measures themselves to predict a proxy in 2000. A measure based on Fair Market Rents calculated by HUD placed second on the first test but did badly on the second. The housing component of the ACCRA index, a living cost measure frequently used by researchers, performed poorly on both tests. The top performer on both tests was a measure based on the average rent per room for a metropolitan area’s dwellings. Researchers wishing to control for living cost differences among places should consider including it in their living cost index.

  12. Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

  13. Combined methodology for estimating dose rates and health effects from exposure to radioactive pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.

    1980-12-01

    The work described in the report is basically a synthesis of two previously existing computer codes: INREM II, developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and CAIRD, developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The INREM II code uses contemporary dosimetric methods to estimate doses to specified reference organs due to inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. The CAIRD code employs actuarial life tables to account for competing risks in estimating numbers of health effects resulting from exposure of a cohort to some incremental risk. The combined computer code, referred to as RADRISK, estimates numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 persons due to continuous lifetime inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. Also briefly discussed in this report is a method of estimating numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort due to continuous lifetime exposure to external radiation. This method employs the CAIRD methodology together with dose conversion factors generated by the computer code DOSFACTER, developed at ORNL; these dose conversion factors are used to estimate dose rates to persons due to radionuclides in the air or on the ground surface. The combination of the life table and dosimetric guidelines for the release of radioactive pollutants to the atmosphere, as required by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977.

  14. Estimation of retired mobile phones generation in China: A comparative study on methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bo; Yang, Jianxin; Lu, Bin; Song, Xiaolong

    2015-01-01

    Due to the rapid development of economy and technology, China has the biggest production and possession of mobile phones around the world. In general, mobile phones have relatively short life time because the majority of users replace their mobile phones frequently. Retired mobile phones represent the most valuable electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) in the main waste stream because of such characteristics as large quantity, high reuse/recovery value and fast replacement frequency. Consequently, the huge amount of retired mobile phones in China calls for a sustainable management system. The generation estimation can provide fundamental information to construct the sustainable management system of retired mobile phones and other waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). However, the reliable estimation result is difficult to get and verify. The priority aim of this paper is to provide proper estimation approach for the generation of retired mobile phones in China, by comparing some relevant methods. The results show that the sales&new method is in the highest priority in estimation of the retired mobile phones. The result of sales&new method shows that there are 47.92 million mobile phones retired in 2002, and it reached to 739.98 million in China in 2012. It presents an increasing tendency with some fluctuations clearly. Furthermore, some discussions on methodology, such as the selection of improper approach and error in the input data, are also conducted in order to improve generation estimation of retired mobile phones and other WEEE. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The cost of energy from utility-owned solar electric systems. A required revenue methodology for ERDA/EPRI evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    This methodology calculates the electric energy busbar cost from a utility-owned solar electric system. This approach is applicable to both publicly- and privately-owned utilities. Busbar cost represents the minimum price per unit of energy consistent with producing system-resultant revenues equal to the sum of system-resultant costs. This equality is expressed in present value terms, where the discount rate used reflects the rate of return required on invested capital. Major input variables describe the output capabilities and capital cost of the energy system, the cash flows required for system operation amd maintenance, and the financial structure and tax environment of the utility.

  16. Systematization of a hybrid costing method for medical procedures: a concomitant apllication of the ABC and UEP methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Márcia Zanievicz da Silva

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study consists in systematization Hybrid Costing Methodology supported by the concepts of Activity Based Costing (ABC and the Production Effort Unit (UEP to quantify the cost of medical procedures in hospitals. By means of theory-concept research, the hybrid method application stages were organized and then tested at the University Hospital of the University of the State of Santa Catarina with the purpose of determining the cost of medical procedures, more specifically childbirth. The execution process flow of childbirth is divided into seven distinct procedures because of its variations. Besides presenting the cost calculations of this process, the research establishes a numerical value called Activity Effort Measure which is based on the execution cost for all the activities necessary to achieve it. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can be applied to quantify the costs, as well as support the management of the several hospital activities.

  17. Probabilistic estimation of numbers and costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crovelli, R.A.; Coe, J.A.

    2009-01-01

    We used historical records of damaging landslides triggered by rainstorms and a newly developed Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) to estimate the numbers and direct costs of future landslides in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region. Historical records of damaging landslides in the region are incomplete. Therefore, our estimates of numbers and costs of future landslides are minimal estimates. The estimated mean annual number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region is about 65. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated mean annual number of damaging future landslides (about 18), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated mean numbers of damaging landslides (about 1 each). The estimated mean annual cost of future landslides in the entire region is about US $14.80 million (year 2000 $). The estimated mean annual cost is highest for San Mateo County ($3.24 million) and lowest for Solano County ($0.18 million). The annual per capita cost for the entire region will be about $2.10. Santa Cruz County will have the highest annual per capita cost at $8.45, whereas San Francisco County will have the lowest per capita cost at $0.31. Normalising costs by dividing by the percentage of land area with slopes equal to or greater than 17% indicates that San Francisco County will have the highest cost per square km ($7,101), whereas Santa Clara County will have the lowest cost per square km ($229). These results indicate that the San Francisco Bay region has one of the highest levels of landslide risk in the United States. Compared with landslide cost estimates from the rest of the world, the risk level in the Bay region seems high, but not exceptionally high.

  18. Multicriteria Estimated Cost of Equity Capital Estimación multicriterio del costo de capital patrimonial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Gutiérrez Betancur

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the cost of equity capital is a key input to the capital budgeting  process when the firm uses internal financing. Financial analyst and managers usually utilize the CAPM to estimate the cost of equity which requires both measurement of  the market risk premium and estimation of beta. For publicly traded firms, calculating the cost of equity is entirely based on information from the financial markets. Non traded firms and small businesses do not have sufficient market based information. This article proposes a multicriteria model to determine the cost of equity for non traded firms. The Analytic Hierarchy Process developed by Thomas Saaty is the proposed methodology for deriving relative priorities of tangible and intangible corporate risk factors. The model requires business managers to identify the relevant information sources for the required input data. The inconsistencies checking mechanism within the AHP model allows management to identify inconsistencies, to revise prior judgments and to synthesize coherently.ResumenLa estimación del costo del capital propio es un elemento clave en el proceso de presupuestación de capital. Analistas y gerentes financieros utilizan el CAPM para estimar el costo del patrimonio, el cual requiere tanto la medición de la prima de riesgo del mercado como la estimación de beta. En el caso de compañías públicamente cotizadas y bursátiles, el cálculo del costo del patrimonio se basa totalmente en la información disponible en los mercados financieros. Las firmas no transadas en bolsa no cuentan con suficiente información de mercado que permita construir un comparable exactamente válido. Este artículo propone un modelo multicriterio para determinar el costo del capital propio de compañías no transadas en bolsa. El Proceso Analítico de Jerarquías desarrollado por Thomas Saaty soporta la metodología propuesta para derivar prioridades relativas de factores de riesgo corporativos

  19. A Capacitance-Based Methodology for the Estimation of Piezoelectric Coefficients of Poled Piezoelectric Materials

    KAUST Repository

    Al Ahmad, Mahmoud

    2010-10-04

    A methodology is proposed to estimate the piezoelectric coefficients of bulk piezoelectric materials using simple capacitance measurements. The extracted values of d33 and d31 from the capacitance measurements were 506 pC/N and 247 pC/N, respectively. The d33 value is in agreement with that obtained from the Berlincourt method, which gave a d33 value of 500 pC/N. In addition, the d31 value is in agreement with the value obtained from the optical method, which gave a d 31 value of 223 pC/V. These results suggest that the proposed method is a viable way to quickly estimate piezoelectric coefficients of bulk unclamped samples. © 2010 The Electrochemical Society.

  20. Risk information in support of cost estimates for the Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR). Section 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gelston, G.M.; Jarvis, M.F.; Warren, B.R. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Von Berg, R. [ICF Kaiser Engineers, Inc., Oakland, CA (United States)

    1995-06-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL)(1) effort on the overall Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) project consists of four installation-specific work components performed in succession. These components include (1) development of source terms, 92) collection of data and preparation of environmental settings reports, (3) calculation of unit risk factors, and (4) utilization of the unit risk factors in Automated Remedial Action Methodology (ARAM) for computation of target concentrations and cost estimates. This report documents work completed for the Nevada Test Site, Nevada, for components 2 and 3. The product of this phase of the BEMR project is the development of unit factors (i.e., unit transport factors, unit exposure factors, and unit risk factors). Thousands of these unit factors are gene rated and fill approximately one megabyte of computer information per installation. The final unit risk factors (URF) are transmitted electronically to BEMR-Cost task personnel as input to a computer program (ARAM). Abstracted files and exhibits of the URF information are included in this report. These visual formats are intended to provide a sample of the final task deliverable (the URF files) which can be easily read without a computer.

  1. Methodological approach for the collection and simultaneous estimation of greenhouse gases emission from aquaculture ponds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasanth, Muthuraman; Muralidhar, Moturi; Saraswathy, Ramamoorthy; Nagavel, Arunachalam; Dayal, Jagabattula Syama; Jayanthi, Marappan; Lalitha, Natarajan; Kumararaja, Periyamuthu; Vijayan, Koyadan Kizhakkedath

    2016-12-01

    Global warming/climate change is the greatest environmental threat of our time. Rapidly developing aquaculture sector is an anthropogenic activity, the contribution of which to global warming is little understood, and estimation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission from the aquaculture ponds is a key practice in predicting the impact of aquaculture on global warming. A comprehensive methodology was developed for sampling and simultaneous analysis of GHGs, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) from the aquaculture ponds. The GHG fluxes were collected using cylindrical acrylic chamber, air pump, and tedlar bags. A cylindrical acrylic floating chamber was fabricated to collect the GHGs emanating from the surface of aquaculture ponds. The sampling methodology was standardized and in-house method validation was established by achieving linearity, accuracy, precision, and specificity. GHGs flux was found to be stable at 10 ± 2 °C of storage for 3 days. The developed methodology was used to quantify GHGs in the Pacific white shrimp Penaeus vannamei and black tiger shrimp Penaeus monodon culture ponds for a period of 4 months. The rate of emission of carbon dioxide was found to be much greater when compared to other two GHGs. Average GHGs emission in gha(-1) day(-1) during the culture was comparatively high in P.vannamei culture ponds.

  2. Cost estimation in software engineering projects with web components development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier de Andrés

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Existen multitud de modelos propuestos para la predicción de co stes en proyectos de software, al gunos orientados específicamen te para proyectos Web. Este trabajo analiza si los modelos específicos para proyectos Web están justifi cados, examinando el comportami ento diferencial de los costes entre proyectos de desarrollo softwar e Web y no Web. Se analizan dos aspectos del cálculo de costes: las deseconomías de escala, y el im pacto de algunas características de estos proyectos que son utilizadas como cost drivers. Se en uncian dos hipótesis: (a en estos proyect os las deseconomías de escala so n mayores y (b el incremento de coste que provocan los cost dr ivers es menor para los proyectos Web. Se contrastaron estas hipótesis a nalizando un conjunto de proyectos reales. Los resultados sugie ren que ambas hipótesis se cumplen. Por lo tanto, la principal contribu ción a la literatura de esta inv estigación es que el desarrollo de modelos específicos para los proyectos Web está justificado.

  3. The Photogrammetric Survey Methodologies Applied to Low Cost 3d Virtual Exploration in Multidisciplinary Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palestini, C.; Basso, A.

    2017-11-01

    In recent years, an increase in international investment in hardware and software technology to support programs that adopt algorithms for photomodeling or data management from laser scanners significantly reduced the costs of operations in support of Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality, designed to generate real-time explorable digital environments integrated to virtual stereoscopic headset. The research analyzes transversal methodologies related to the acquisition of these technologies in order to intervene directly on the phenomenon of acquiring the current VR tools within a specific workflow, in light of any issues related to the intensive use of such devices , outlining a quick overview of the possible "virtual migration" phenomenon, assuming a possible integration with the new internet hyper-speed systems, capable of triggering a massive cyberspace colonization process that paradoxically would also affect the everyday life and more in general, on human space perception. The contribution aims at analyzing the application systems used for low cost 3d photogrammetry by means of a precise pipeline, clarifying how a 3d model is generated, automatically retopologized, textured by color painting or photo-cloning techniques, and optimized for parametric insertion on virtual exploration platforms. Workflow analysis will follow some case studies related to photomodeling, digital retopology and "virtual 3d transfer" of some small archaeological artifacts and an architectural compartment corresponding to the pronaus of Aurum, a building designed in the 1940s by Michelucci. All operations will be conducted on cheap or free licensed software that today offer almost the same performance as their paid counterparts, progressively improving in the data processing speed and management.

  4. THE PHOTOGRAMMETRIC SURVEY METHODOLOGIES APPLIED TO LOW COST 3D VIRTUAL EXPLORATION IN MULTIDISCIPLINARY FIELD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Palestini

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, an increase in international investment in hardware and software technology to support programs that adopt algorithms for photomodeling or data management from laser scanners significantly reduced the costs of operations in support of Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality, designed to generate real-time explorable digital environments integrated to virtual stereoscopic headset. The research analyzes transversal methodologies related to the acquisition of these technologies in order to intervene directly on the phenomenon of acquiring the current VR tools within a specific workflow, in light of any issues related to the intensive use of such devices , outlining a quick overview of the possible "virtual migration" phenomenon, assuming a possible integration with the new internet hyper-speed systems, capable of triggering a massive cyberspace colonization process that paradoxically would also affect the everyday life and more in general, on human space perception. The contribution aims at analyzing the application systems used for low cost 3d photogrammetry by means of a precise pipeline, clarifying how a 3d model is generated, automatically retopologized, textured by color painting or photo-cloning techniques, and optimized for parametric insertion on virtual exploration platforms. Workflow analysis will follow some case studies related to photomodeling, digital retopology and "virtual 3d transfer" of some small archaeological artifacts and an architectural compartment corresponding to the pronaus of Aurum, a building designed in the 1940s by Michelucci. All operations will be conducted on cheap or free licensed software that today offer almost the same performance as their paid counterparts, progressively improving in the data processing speed and management.

  5. Novel methodology for estimating Initial Contact events from accelerometers positioned at different body locations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khandelwal, Siddhartha; Wickström, Nicholas

    2018-01-01

    Identifying Initial Contact events (ICE) is essential in gait analysis as they segment the walking pattern into gait cycles and facilitate the computation of other gait parameters. As such, numerous algorithms have been developed to identify ICE by placing the accelerometer at a specific body location. Simultaneously, many researchers have studied the effects of device positioning for participant or patient compliance, which is an important factor to consider especially for long-term studies in real-life settings. With the adoption of accelerometery for long-term gait analysis in daily living, current and future applications will require robust algorithms that can either autonomously adapt to changes in sensor positioning or can detect ICE from multiple sensors locations. This study presents a novel methodology that is capable of estimating ICE from accelerometers placed at different body locations. The proposed methodology, called DK-TiFA, is based on utilizing domain knowledge about the fundamental spectral relationships present between the movement of different body parts during gait to drive the time-frequency analysis of the acceleration signal. In order to assess the performance, DK-TiFA is benchmarked on four large publicly available gait databases, consisting of a total of 613 subjects and 7 unique body locations, namely, ankle, thigh, center waist, side waist, chest, upper arm and wrist. The DK-TiFA methodology is demonstrated to achieve high accuracy and robustness for estimating ICE from data consisting of different accelerometer specifications, varying gait speeds and different environments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimating the social cost of respiratory cancer cases attributable to occupational exposures in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrier, Hassan; Sultan-Taieb, Hélène; Luce, Danièle; Bejean, Sophie

    2014-07-01

    The objective of this article was to estimate the social cost of respiratory cancer cases attributable to occupational risk factors in France in 2010. According to the attributable fraction method and based on available epidemiological data from the literature, we estimated the number of respiratory cancer cases due to each identified risk factor. We used the cost-of-illness method with a prevalence-based approach. We took into account the direct and indirect costs. We estimated the cost of production losses due to morbidity (absenteeism and presenteeism) and mortality costs (years of production losses) in the market and nonmarket spheres. The social cost of lung, larynx, sinonasal and mesothelioma cancer caused by exposure to asbestos, chromium, diesel engine exhaust, paint, crystalline silica, wood and leather dust in France in 2010 were estimated at between 917 and 2,181 million euros. Between 795 and 2,011 million euros (87-92%) of total costs were due to lung cancer alone. Asbestos was by far the risk factor representing the greatest cost to French society in 2010 at between 531 and 1,538 million euros (58-71%), ahead of diesel engine exhaust, representing an estimated social cost of between 233 and 336 million euros, and crystalline silica (119-229 million euros). Indirect costs represented about 66% of total costs. Our assessment shows the magnitude of the economic impact of occupational respiratory cancers. It allows comparisons between countries and provides valuable information for policy-makers responsible for defining public health priorities.

  7. Estimating life cycle cost for a product family design: The challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suteja, T. J.; Karim, A.; Yarlagadda, P. K. D. V.; Yan, C.

    2017-11-01

    A cost estimation system is required to assist in designing a product family. The aim of this paper is to identify the requirements and the problems in estimating the life cycle cost of a product family. Then, this paper also presents the state-of-the-art and the research challenges in developing a life cycle cost estimation system for a product family design. As the conclusion, the life cycle cost estimation process for a product family still needs to face the challenges to determine the end of life strategy of each sub module of a product family, to integrate the end of life strategy to estimate the life cycle cost of a product family, to estimate the life cycle cost of each component level of a product family for design purposes and for different technologies and approaches, to reduce the required time and effort for updating process in estimating the life cycle cost for different structures of different product families, and to transform the available information into the required information in order to estimate the life cycle cost of a product family at the early stage of product development.

  8. An Exploratory Study of Software Cost Estimating at the Electronic Systems Division.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-07-01

    education, and had estimated software costs on other i projects. On the other hand there were some* inividuals who had no pro- gramming experience, no...estimate. The beot prformance wan from two programs which exhibited cost growths of about 0%#. If one considern that these eatimateo were ;nJAdO fol

  9. Computer software to estimate timber harvesting system production, cost, and revenue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dr. John E. Baumgras; Dr. Chris B. LeDoux

    1992-01-01

    Large variations in timber harvesting cost and revenue can result from the differences between harvesting systems, the variable attributes of harvesting sites and timber stands, or changing product markets. Consequently, system and site specific estimates of production rates and costs are required to improve estimates of harvesting revenue. This paper describes...

  10. 24 CFR 886.330 - Work write-ups and cost estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Work write-ups and cost estimates... Section 8 Housing Assistance Program for the Disposition of HUD-Owned Projects § 886.330 Work write-ups and cost estimates. (a) HUD preparation of work write-ups. If needed, a work write-up, including plans...

  11. Waste Dump Closure and Cost Estimates at AngloGold Ashanti ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The cost was then estimated using price quotes from vendors or contractors located around the mining area. Results showed that waste dump closure and reclamation programme for Iduapriem Mine are consistent with Ghana Mining and Environmental guidelines. The total closure and reclamation cost was estimated to be ...

  12. Military Participants at U.S. Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Testing— Methodology for Estimating Dose and Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Till, John E.; Beck, Harold L.; Aanenson, Jill W.; Grogan, Helen A.; Mohler, H. Justin; Mohler, S. Shawn; Voillequé, Paul G.

    2014-01-01

    Methods were developed to calculate individual estimates of exposure and dose with associated uncertainties for a sub-cohort (1,857) of 115,329 military veterans who participated in at least one of seven series of atmospheric nuclear weapons tests or the TRINITY shot carried out by the United States. The tests were conducted at the Pacific Proving Grounds and the Nevada Test Site. Dose estimates to specific organs will be used in an epidemiological study to investigate leukemia and male breast cancer. Previous doses had been estimated for the purpose of compensation and were generally high-sided to favor the veteran's claim for compensation in accordance with public law. Recent efforts by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to digitize the historical records supporting the veterans’ compensation assessments make it possible to calculate doses and associated uncertainties. Our approach builds upon available film badge dosimetry and other measurement data recorded at the time of the tests and incorporates detailed scenarios of exposure for each veteran based on personal, unit, and other available historical records. Film badge results were available for approximately 25% of the individuals, and these results assisted greatly in reconstructing doses to unbadged persons and in developing distributions of dose among military units. This article presents the methodology developed to estimate doses for selected cancer cases and a 1% random sample of the total cohort of veterans under study. PMID:24758578

  13. 7 CFR Exhibit A to Subpart A of... - Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Partial Payments A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of... Planning and Performing Construction and Other Development Pt. 1924, Subpt. A, Exh. A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924—Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments With slab on...

  14. Parameter Estimation by Inverse Solution Methodology Using Genetic Algorithms for Real Time Temperature Prediction Model of Ladle Furnace

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Srinivas, Peri Subrahmanya; Kothari, Anil Kumar; Agrawal, Ashish

    2016-01-01

    .... In the present work, inverse methodology combined with Genetic Algorithms has been successfully employed for estimating parameter of a dynamic model aimed to predict liquid steel temperature in Ladle Furnace...

  15. On-Line Flutter Prediction Tool for Wind Tunnel Flutter Testing using Parameter Varying Estimation Methodology Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology, Inc. (ZONA) proposes to develop an on-line flutter prediction tool using the parameter varying estimation (PVE) methodology, called the PVE Toolbox,...

  16. Bounds Estimation Via Regression with Asymmetric Cost Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCoste, D.

    1997-01-01

    This paper addresses a significant but mostly-neglected class of problems that we call bounds estimation. This includes learning empirical best-case and worst-case algorithmic complexity bounds and red-line bounds on sensor data.

  17. Estimating cost of large-fire suppression for three Forest Service regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric L. Smith; Gonz& aacute; lez-Cab& aacute; n Armando

    1987-01-01

    The annual costs attributable to large fire suppression in three Forest Service Regions (1970-1981) were estimated as a function of fire perimeters using linear regression. Costs calculated on a per chain of perimeterbasis were highest for the Pacific Northwest Region, next highest for the Northern Region, and lowest for the Intermountain Region. Recent costs in real...

  18. A novel methodology for determining low-cost fine particulate matter street sweeping routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blazquez, Carola A; Beghelli, Alejandra; Meneses, Veronica P

    2012-02-01

    This paper addresses the problem of low-cost PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter problems of waste collection where streets must be visited once (Chinese or Rural Postman Problem, respectively), in this case, the sweeping vehicle route must visit each selected street exactly as many times as its number of street sides, since the vehicle can sweep only one street side at a time. Additionally, the route must comply with traffic flow and turn constraints. A novel transformation of the original arc routing problem into a node routing problem is proposed in this paper. This is accomplished by building a graph that represents the area to sweep in such a way that the problem can be solved by applying any known solution to the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP). As a way of illustration, the proposed method was applied to the northeast area of the Municipality of Santiago (Chile). Results show that the proposed methodology achieved up to 37% savings in kilometers traveled by the sweeping vehicle when compared to the solution obtained by solving the TSP problem with Geographic Information Systems (GIS)--aware tools.

  19. A scenario elicitation methodology to identify the drivers of electricity infrastructure cost in South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moksnes, Nandi; Taliotis, Constantinos; Broad, Oliver; de Moura, Gustavo; Howells, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Developing a set of scenarios to assess a proposed policy or future development pathways requires a certain level of information, as well as establishing the socio-economic context. As the future is difficult to predict, great care in defining the selected scenarios is needed. Even so it can be difficult to assess if the selected scenario is covering the possible solution space. Instead, this paper's methodology develops a large set of scenarios (324) in OSeMOSYS using the SAMBA 2.0 (South America Model Base) model to assess long-term electricity supply scenarios and applies a scenario-discovery statistical data mining algorithm, Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). By creating a multidimensional space, regions related to high and low cost can be identified as well as their key driver. The six key drivers are defined a priori in three (high, medium, low) or two levers (high, low): 1) Demand projected from GDP, population, urbanization and transport, 2) Fossil fuel price, 3) Climate change impact on hydropower, 4) Renewable technology learning rate, 5) Discount rate, 6) CO2 emission targets.

  20. UAV-Borne photogrammetry: a low cost 3D surveying methodology for cartographic update

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroti Gabriella

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Territorial management requires the most possible up-to-date mapping support of the status quo. Regional scale cartography update cycle is in the medium term (10 to 15 years: therefore, in the intervening time between updates relevant Authorities must provide timely updates for new works or territorial changes. Required surveys can exploit several technologies: ground-based GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS, traditional topography, or, in the case of wider areas, airborne photogrammetry or laser scanning. In recent years UAV-based photogrammetry is becoming increasingly widespread as a versatile, low-cost surveying system for small to medium areas. This surveying methodology was used to generate, in order, a dense point cloud, a high resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM and an orthophotograph of a newly built marina by the mouth of the Arno river in Pisa, Italy, which is not yet included in cartography. Surveying activities took place while the construction site was in operation. Case study issues surfaced in the course of the survey are presented and discussed, suggesting ‘good practice’ rules which, if followed in the survey planning step, can lessen unwanted effects due to criticalities. Besides, results of quality analysis of orthophotographs generated by UAV-borne images are also presented. Such results are discussed in view of a possible use of orthophotographs in updating medium- to large-scale cartography and checked against existing blueprints.

  1. Estimating the organizational cost of sexual assault in the U.S. military

    OpenAIRE

    Bo, Dianna L.

    2013-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This research estimates the organizational costs of sexual-assault incidents involving active-duty members of the U.S. military in FY 2012. The study builds on previous work by Robert H. Faley, in which he and his colleagues presented a model for estimating the organizational annual cost of sexual harassment. In this study, I develop a comprehensive framework of all organizational costs related to sexual assaults in the military workp...

  2. Index cost estimate based BIM method - Computational example for sports fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zima, Krzysztof

    2017-07-01

    The paper presents an example ofcost estimation in the early phase of the project. The fragment of relative database containing solution, descriptions, geometry of construction object and unit cost of sports facilities was shown. The Index Cost Estimate Based BIM method calculationswith use of Case Based Reasoning were presented, too. The article presentslocal and global similarity measurement and example of BIM based quantity takeoff process. The outcome of cost calculations based on CBR method was presented as a final result of calculations.

  3. Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Cattle Traceability: the Case of the Quebec Cattle Traceability System

    OpenAIRE

    Pouliot, Sebastien

    2008-01-01

    Animal identification and animal traceability have lept to the front of the food policy agenda. The ongoing implementation of the National Animal Identification System in United States has raised concerns over the costs and benefits of implementing and maintaining such a system. In this paper, we lay the foundations for estimating the costs and benefits of implementing cattle traceability in Québec. Our results could eventually be used to estimate the costs and benefits of adopting a similar ...

  4. Methodology for Calculating Cost-per-Mile for Current and Future Vehicle Powertrain Technologies, with Projections to 2024: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M.; Timbario, T. A.; Timbario, T. J.; Laffen, M.

    2011-01-01

    Currently, several cost-per-mile calculators exist that can provide estimates of acquisition and operating costs for consumers and fleets. However, these calculators are limited in their ability to determine the difference in cost per mile for consumer versus fleet ownership, to calculate the costs beyond one ownership period, to show the sensitivity of the cost per mile to the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and to estimate future increases in operating and ownership costs. Oftentimes, these tools apply a constant percentage increase over the time period of vehicle operation, or in some cases, no increase in direct costs at all over time. A more accurate cost-per-mile calculator has been developed that allows the user to analyze these costs for both consumers and fleets. The calculator was developed to allow simultaneous comparisons of conventional light-duty internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, mild and full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). This paper is a summary of the development by the authors of a more accurate cost-per-mile calculator that allows the user to analyze vehicle acquisition and operating costs for both consumer and fleets. Cost-per-mile results are reported for consumer-operated vehicles travelling 15,000 miles per year and for fleets travelling 25,000 miles per year.

  5. Interconnection Assessment Methodology and Cost Benefit Analysis for High-Penetration PV Deployment in the Arizona Public Service System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baggu, Murali; Giraldez, Julieta; Harris, Tom; Brunhart-Lupo, Nicholas; Lisell, Lars; Narang, David

    2015-06-14

    In an effort to better understand the impacts of high penetrations of photovoltaic (PV) generators on distribution systems, Arizona Public Service and its partners completed a multi-year project to develop the tools and knowledge base needed to safely and reliably integrate high penetrations of utility- and residential-scale PV. Building upon the APS Community Power Project-Flagstaff Pilot, this project investigates the impact of PV on a representative feeder in northeast Flagstaff. To quantify and catalog the effects of the estimated 1.3 MW of PV that will be installed on the feeder (both smaller units at homes and large, centrally located systems), high-speed weather and electrical data acquisition systems and digital 'smart' meters were designed and installed to facilitate monitoring and to build and validate comprehensive, high-resolution models of the distribution system. These models are being developed to analyze the impacts of PV on distribution circuit protection systems (including coordination and anti-islanding), predict voltage regulation and phase balance issues, and develop volt/VAr control schemes. This paper continues from a paper presented at the 2014 IEEE PVSC conference that described feeder model evaluation and high penetration advanced scenario analysis, specifically feeder reconfiguration. This paper presents results from Phase 5 of the project. Specifically, the paper discusses tool automation; interconnection assessment methodology and cost benefit analysis.

  6. Estimating the cost of healthcare delivery in three hospitals in southern ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aboagye, A Q Q; Degboe, A N K; Obuobi, A A D

    2010-09-01

    The cost burden (called full cost) of providing health services at a referral, a district and a mission hospital in Ghana were determined. Standard cost-finding and cost analysis tools recommended by World Health Organization are used to analyse 2002 and 2003 hospital data. Full cost centre costs were computed by taking into account cash and non-cash expenses and allocating overhead costs to intermediate and final patient care centres. The full costs of running the mission hospital in 2002 and 2003 were US$600,295 and US$758,647 respectively; for the district hospital, the respective costs were US$496,240 and US$487,537; and for the referral hospital, the respective costs were US$1,160,535 and US$1,394,321. Of these, overhead costs ranged between 20% and 42%, while salaries made up between 45% and 60%. Based on healthcare utilization data, in 2003 the estimated cost per outpatient attendance was US$ 2.25 at the mission hospital, US$ 4.51 at the district hospital and US$8.5 at the referral hospital; inpatient day costs were US$ 6.05, US$ 9.95 and US$18.8 at the respective hospitals. User fees charged at service delivery points were generally below cost. However, some service delivery points have the potential to recover their costs. Salaries are the major cost component of the three hospitals. Overhead costs constitute an important part of hospital costs and must be noted in efforts to recover costs. Cost structures are different at different types of hospitals. Unit costs at service delivery points can be estimated and projected into the future.

  7. Molten Salt: Concept Definition and Capital Cost Estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stoddard, Larry [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Andrew, Daniel [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Adams, Shannon [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Galluzzo, Geoff [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States)

    2016-06-30

    The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Renewable Power (ORP) has been tasked to provide effective program management and strategic direction for all of the DOE’s Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) renewable power programs. The ORP’s efforts to accomplish this mission are aligned with national energy policies, DOE strategic planning, EERE’s strategic planning, Congressional appropriation, and stakeholder advice. ORP is supported by three renewable energy offices, of which one is the Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) whose SunShot Initiative has a mission to accelerate research, development and large scale deployment of solar technologies in the United States. SETO has a goal of reducing the cost of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) by 75 percent of 2010 costs by 2020 to reach parity with base-load energy rates, and to reduce costs 30 percent further by 2030. The SunShot Initiative is promoting the implementation of high temperature CSP with thermal energy storage allowing generation during high demand hours. The SunShot Initiative has funded significant research and development work on component testing, with attention to high temperature molten salts, heliostats, receiver designs, and high efficiency high temperature supercritical CO2 (sCO2) cycles. DOE retained Black & Veatch to support SETO’s SunShot Initiative for CSP solar power tower technology in the following areas: 1. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of a flexible test facility to be used to test and prove components in part to support financing. 2. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of an integrated high temperature molten salt (MS) facility with thermal energy storage and with a supercritical CO2 cycle generating approximately 10MWe. 3. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of an integrated high temperature falling particle facility with thermal energy storage and with a supercritical CO2

  8. Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMasi, Joseph A; Grabowski, Henry G; Hansen, Ronald W

    2016-05-01

    The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A Methodology to Evaluate the Impact of Cost Recovery in Canadian Agriculture and Agri-Food Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Short, Cameron

    2002-01-01

    This publication is a technical report describing the methodology Strategic Policy Branch used in its cumulative impact study (which was published in 1998). The purpose is to further document the methodology and adapt it to estimate coefficients which can be used to assist in the analysis of proposed fees. Its main audience is policy analysts within government. The report presents a description of the economic analysis of user fees, describes a mathematical model used to quantitatively assess...

  10. Estimation of marginal costs at existing waste treatment facilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Sanchez, Veronica; Hulgaard, Tore; Hindsgaul, Claus

    2016-01-01

    , based on the determination of average costs in such waste facilities as function of key facility and waste compositional parameters. The applicability of the method was demonstrated through a case study including two existing Waste-to-Energy (WtE) facilities, one with co-generation of heat and power...... (CHP) and another with only power generation (Power), affected by diversion strategies of five waste fractions (fibres, plastic, metals, organics and glass), named "target fractions". The study assumed three possible responses to waste diversion in the WtE facilities: (i) biomass was added to maintain...... a constant thermal load, (ii) Refused-Derived-Fuel (RDF) was included to maintain a constant thermal load, or (iii) no reaction occurred resulting in a reduced waste throughput without full utilization of the facility capacity. Results demonstrated that marginal costs of diversion from WtE were up to eleven...

  11. Composite Airframe Cost Estimation Model Research: Report on Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    delamination is a predominant failure mode . While composites have shown great promise achieving the performance and cost goals of future aircraft industry...analytical study to: • Investigate mode I, mode II and mixed mode failure response of various composite specimen geometries with through-thickness...initial research results and constitutes the bulk of this final report. 4.1 Analysis of Z-Pinned Laminated Composites Fatigue Test Data: 4

  12. Falling Particles: Concept Definition and Capital Cost Estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stoddard, Larry [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Galluzzo, Geoff [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Adams, Shannon [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Andrew, Daniel [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States)

    2016-06-30

    The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Renewable Power (ORP) has been tasked to provide effective program management and strategic direction for all of the DOE’s Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) renewable power programs. The ORP’s efforts to accomplish this mission are aligned with national energy policies, DOE strategic planning, EERE’s strategic planning, Congressional appropriation, and stakeholder advice. ORP is supported by three renewable energy offices, of which one is the Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) whose SunShot Initiative has a mission to accelerate research, development and large scale deployment of solar technologies in the United States. SETO has a goal of reducing the cost of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) by 75 percent of 2010 costs by 2020 to reach parity with base-load energy rates, and to reduce costs 30 percent further by 2030. The SunShot Initiative is promoting the implementation of high temperature CSP with thermal energy storage allowing generation during high demand hours. The SunShot Initiative has funded significant research and development work on component testing, with attention to high temperature molten salts, heliostats, receiver designs, and high efficiency high temperature supercritical CO2 (sCO2) cycles.

  13. Binational Arsenic Exposure Survey: Methodology and Estimated Arsenic Intake from Drinking Water and Urinary Arsenic Concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin B. Harris

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Binational Arsenic Exposure Survey (BAsES was designed to evaluate probable arsenic exposures in selected areas of southern Arizona and northern Mexico, two regions with known elevated levels of arsenic in groundwater reserves. This paper describes the methodology of BAsES and the relationship between estimated arsenic intake from beverages and arsenic output in urine. Households from eight communities were selected for their varying groundwater arsenic concentrations in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. Adults responded to questionnaires and provided dietary information. A first morning urine void and water from all household drinking sources were collected. Associations between urinary arsenic concentration (total, organic, inorganic and estimated level of arsenic consumed from water and other beverages were evaluated through crude associations and by random effects models. Median estimated total arsenic intake from beverages among participants from Arizona communities ranged from 1.7 to 14.1 µg/day compared to 0.6 to 3.4 µg/day among those from Mexico communities. In contrast, median urinary inorganic arsenic concentrations were greatest among participants from Hermosillo, Mexico (6.2 µg/L whereas a high of 2.0 µg/L was found among participants from Ajo, Arizona. Estimated arsenic intake from drinking water was associated with urinary total arsenic concentration (p < 0.001, urinary inorganic arsenic concentration (p < 0.001, and urinary sum of species (p < 0.001. Urinary arsenic concentrations increased between 7% and 12% for each one percent increase in arsenic consumed from drinking water. Variability in arsenic intake from beverages and urinary arsenic output yielded counter intuitive results. Estimated intake of arsenic from all beverages was greatest among Arizonans yet participants in Mexico had higher urinary total and inorganic arsenic concentrations. Other contributors to urinary arsenic concentrations should be evaluated.

  14. Applying Insights from Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) to Improve DoD Cost Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-07-12

    and year). For example, the Marine Corps Advanced Amphibious Assault Vehicle ( AAAV )17 reported Program Office costs in exhibit R-3 under “Support...how they are funded. The AAAV reported costs for the more general category “Support and Management” for FY97 – FY06, but the line-items included in

  15. Estimating External Costs of Transportation in Regional Areas: Using Available Statistical Data the Case of the Region of Campania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariano Gallo

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper simplified methods for estimating the external costs due to transportation in regional areas are proposed. The methods are based on data available by national and regional statistical sources and do not need specific surveys; they allow obtaining approximate estimates useful for a preliminary evaluation of transportation plans, policies and projects. In more detail, a negative externality is defined as a cost that is produced by subject A and is borne by subject B; moreover, subject A does not consider the effects of his/her behavior on subject B and does not compensate subject B for the costs that this last one is forced to bear. In this paper after a literature review on methodologies proposed for estimating external costs, in national and international ambits, the main external costs produced by transportation systems in the Region of Campania are estimated. The main external costs considered are: greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, noise, accidents and congestion. In the paper the secondary external costs are neglected; the main ones are: water and soil pollution; landscape and nature damages; upstream and downstream effects; visual intrusion; separation effects; soil occupancy. In this paper the external costs estimated are the ones produced not only by road traffic, that anyway is the main “culprit”, but also by rail and air transportation systems. The evaluation of external costs has required the collection of several data on the regional mobility and the estimation of veh-kms per year produced in Campania by cars and freight vehicles. The estimation of veh-kms per year is based on circulating vehicles, subdivided by the COPERT classification, and on average yearly distances covered by each vehicle class. Other regional statistical data are collected about regional rail transport and air services at the main airports of the region. Moreover, since the evaluation of some external costs is based on damages on human

  16. A methodology to estimate earthquake effects on fractures intersecting canister holes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    La Pointe, P.; Wallmann, P.; Thomas, A.; Follin, S. [Golder Assocites Inc. (Sweden)

    1997-03-01

    A literature review and a preliminary numerical modeling study were carried out to develop and demonstrate a method for estimating displacements on fractures near to or intersecting canister emplacement holes. The method can be applied during preliminary evaluation of candidate sites prior to any detailed drilling or underground excavation, utilizing lineament maps and published regression relations between surface rupture trace length and earthquake magnitude, rupture area and displacements. The calculated displacements can be applied to lineament traces which are assumed to be faults and may be the sites for future earthquakes. Next, a discrete fracture model is created for secondary faulting and jointing in the vicinity of the repository. These secondary fractures may displace due to the earthquake on the primary faults. The three-dimensional numerical model assumes linear elasticity and linear elastic fracture mechanics which provides a conservative displacement estimate, while still preserving realistic fracture patterns. Two series of numerical studies were undertaken to demonstrate how the methodology could be implemented and how results could be applied to questions regarding site selection and performance assessment. The first series illustrates how earthquake damage to a hypothetical repository for a specified location (Aespoe) could be estimated. A second series examined the displacements induced by earthquakes varying in magnitude from 6.0 to 8.2 as a function of how close the earthquake was in relation to the repository. 143 refs, 25 figs, 7 tabs.

  17. Modeling uncertainty of estimated illnesses attributed to non-O157:H7 Shiga toxin-producing escherichia coli and its impact on illness cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marks, Harry M; Tohamy, Soumaya M; Tsui, Flora

    2013-06-01

    Because of numerous reported foodborne illness cases due to non-O157:H7 Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) bacteria in the United States and elsewhere, interest in requiring better control of these pathogens in the food supply has increased. Successfully putting forth regulations depends upon cost-benefit analyses. Policy decisions often depend upon an evaluation of the uncertainty of the estimates used in such an analysis. This article presents an approach for estimating the uncertainties of estimated expected cost per illness and total annual costs of non-O157 STEC-related illnesses due to uncertainties associated with (i) recent FoodNet data and (ii) methodology proposed by Scallan et al. in 2011. The FoodNet data categorize illnesses regarding hospitalization and death. We obtained the illness-category costs from the foodborne illness cost calculator of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Our approach for estimating attendant uncertainties differs from that of Scallan et al. because we used a classical bootstrap procedure for estimating uncertainty of an estimated parameter value (e.g., mean value), reflecting the design of the FoodNet database, whereas the other approach results in an uncertainty distribution that includes an extraneous contribution due to the underlying variability of the distribution of illnesses among different sites. For data covering 2005 through 2010, we estimate that the average cost per illness was about $450, with a 98% credible interval of $230 to $1,000. This estimate and range are based on estimations of about one death and 100 hospitalizations per 34,000 illnesses. Our estimate of the total annual cost is about $51 million, with a 98% credible interval of $19 million to $122 million. The uncertainty distribution for total annual cost is approximated well by a lognormal distribution, with mean and standard deviations for the log-transformed costs of 10.765 and 0.390, respectively.

  18. Accounting for the relationship between per diem cost and LOS when estimating hospitalization costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishak K

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hospitalization costs in clinical trials are typically derived by multiplying the length of stay (LOS by an average per-diem (PD cost from external sources. This assumes that PD costs are independent of LOS. Resource utilization in early days of the stay is usually more intense, however, and thus, the PD cost for a short hospitalization may be higher than for longer stays. The shape of this relationship is unlikely to be linear, as PD costs would be expected to gradually plateau. This paper describes how to model the relationship between PD cost and LOS using flexible statistical modelling techniques. Methods An example based on a clinical study of clevidipine for the treatment of peri-operative hypertension during hospitalizations for cardiac surgery is used to illustrate how inferences about cost-savings associated with good blood pressure (BP control during the stay can be affected by the approach used to derive hospitalization costs. Data on the cost and LOS of hospitalizations for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG from the Massachusetts Acute Hospital Case Mix Database (the MA Case Mix Database were analyzed to link LOS to PD cost, factoring in complications that may have occurred during the hospitalization or post-discharge. The shape of the relationship between LOS and PD costs in the MA Case Mix was explored graphically in a regression framework. A series of statistical models including those based on simple logarithmic transformation of LOS to more flexible models using LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS techniques were considered. A final model was selected, using simplicity and parsimony as guiding principles in addition traditional fit statistics (like Akaike’s Information Criterion, or AIC. This mapping was applied in ECLIPSE to predict an LOS-specific PD cost, and then a total cost of hospitalization. These were then compared for patients who had good vs. poor peri-operative blood

  19. Accounting for the relationship between per diem cost and LOS when estimating hospitalization costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishak, K Jack; Stolar, Marilyn; Hu, Ming-yi; Alvarez, Piedad; Wang, Yamei; Getsios, Denis; Williams, Gregory C

    2012-12-01

    Hospitalization costs in clinical trials are typically derived by multiplying the length of stay (LOS) by an average per-diem (PD) cost from external sources. This assumes that PD costs are independent of LOS. Resource utilization in early days of the stay is usually more intense, however, and thus, the PD cost for a short hospitalization may be higher than for longer stays. The shape of this relationship is unlikely to be linear, as PD costs would be expected to gradually plateau. This paper describes how to model the relationship between PD cost and LOS using flexible statistical modelling techniques. An example based on a clinical study of clevidipine for the treatment of peri-operative hypertension during hospitalizations for cardiac surgery is used to illustrate how inferences about cost-savings associated with good blood pressure (BP) control during the stay can be affected by the approach used to derive hospitalization costs.Data on the cost and LOS of hospitalizations for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) from the Massachusetts Acute Hospital Case Mix Database (the MA Case Mix Database) were analyzed to link LOS to PD cost, factoring in complications that may have occurred during the hospitalization or post-discharge. The shape of the relationship between LOS and PD costs in the MA Case Mix was explored graphically in a regression framework. A series of statistical models including those based on simple logarithmic transformation of LOS to more flexible models using LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) techniques were considered. A final model was selected, using simplicity and parsimony as guiding principles in addition traditional fit statistics (like Akaike's Information Criterion, or AIC). This mapping was applied in ECLIPSE to predict an LOS-specific PD cost, and then a total cost of hospitalization. These were then compared for patients who had good vs. poor peri-operative blood-pressure control. The MA Case Mix dataset included data

  20. A methodology for modeling photocatalytic reactors for indoor pollution control using previously estimated kinetic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Passalia, Claudio; Alfano, Orlando M. [INTEC - Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnologico para la Industria Quimica, CONICET - UNL, Gueemes 3450, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina); FICH - Departamento de Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina); Brandi, Rodolfo J., E-mail: rbrandi@santafe-conicet.gov.ar [INTEC - Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnologico para la Industria Quimica, CONICET - UNL, Gueemes 3450, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina); FICH - Departamento de Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina)

    2012-04-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Indoor pollution control via photocatalytic reactors. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Scaling-up methodology based on previously determined mechanistic kinetics. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Radiation interchange model between catalytic walls using configuration factors. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Modeling and experimental validation of a complex geometry photocatalytic reactor. - Abstract: A methodology for modeling photocatalytic reactors for their application in indoor air pollution control is carried out. The methodology implies, firstly, the determination of intrinsic reaction kinetics for the removal of formaldehyde. This is achieved by means of a simple geometry, continuous reactor operating under kinetic control regime and steady state. The kinetic parameters were estimated from experimental data by means of a nonlinear optimization algorithm. The second step was the application of the obtained kinetic parameters to a very different photoreactor configuration. In this case, the reactor is a corrugated wall type using nanosize TiO{sub 2} as catalyst irradiated by UV lamps that provided a spatially uniform radiation field. The radiative transfer within the reactor was modeled through a superficial emission model for the lamps, the ray tracing method and the computation of view factors. The velocity and concentration fields were evaluated by means of a commercial CFD tool (Fluent 12) where the radiation model was introduced externally. The results of the model were compared experimentally in a corrugated wall, bench scale reactor constructed in the laboratory. The overall pollutant conversion showed good agreement between model predictions and experiments, with a root mean square error less than 4%.

  1. Hyperketonemia in early lactation dairy cattle: a deterministic estimate of component and total cost per case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McArt, J A A; Nydam, D V; Overton, M W

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a deterministic economic model to estimate the costs associated with (1) the component cost per case of hyperketonemia (HYK) and (2) the total cost per case of HYK when accounting for costs related to HYK-attributed diseases. Data from current literature was used to model the incidence and risks of HYK (defined as a blood β-hydroxybutyrate concentration≥1.2 mmol/L), displaced abomasa (DA), metritis, disease associations, milk production, culling, and reproductive outcomes. The component cost of HYK was estimated based on 1,000 calvings per year; the incidence of HYK in primiparous and multiparous animals; the percent of animals receiving clinical treatment; the direct costs of diagnostics, therapeutics, labor, and death loss; and the indirect costs of future milk production losses, future culling losses, and reproduction losses. Costs attributable to DA and metritis were estimated based on the incidence of each disease in the first 30 DIM; the number of cases of each disease attributable to HYK; the direct costs of diagnostics, therapeutics, discarded milk during treatment and the withdrawal period, veterinary service (DA only), and death loss; and the indirect costs of future milk production losses, future culling losses, and reproduction losses. The component cost per case of HYK was estimated at $134 and $111 for primiparous and multiparous animals, respectively; the average component cost per case of HYK was estimated to be $117. Thirty-four percent of the component cost of HYK was due to future reproductive losses, 26% to death loss, 26% to future milk production losses, 8% to future culling losses, 3% to therapeutics, 2% to labor, and 1% to diagnostics. The total cost per case of HYK was estimated at $375 and $256 for primiparous and multiparous animals, respectively; the average total cost per case of HYK was $289. Forty-one percent of the total cost of HYK was due to the component cost of HYK, 33% to costs

  2. Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

    2007-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P < .0001). Greater precision in predicting outcome and costs after therapy may assist clinicians in the optimization of clinical pathways and allocation of resources. Our economic model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

  3. Estimating the current and future costs of Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes in the UK, including direct health costs and indirect societal and productivity costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hex, N; Bartlett, C; Wright, D; Taylor, M; Varley, D

    2012-07-01

    To estimate the current and future economic burdens of Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes in the UK. A top-down approach was used to estimate costs for 2010/2011 from aggregated data sets and literature. Prevalence and population data were used to project costs for 2035/2036. Direct health costs were estimated from data on diagnosis, lifestyle interventions, ongoing treatment and management, and complications. Indirect costs were estimated from data on mortality, sickness, presenteeism (potential loss of productivity among people who remain in work) and informal care. Diabetes cost approximately £ 23.7bn in the UK in 2010/2011: £ 9.8bn in direct costs (£1bn for Type 1 diabetes and £ 8.8bn for Type 2 diabetes) and £ 13.9bn in indirect costs (£ 0.9bn and £ 13bn). In real terms, the 2035/2036 cost is estimated at £ 39.8bn: £ 16.9bn in direct costs (£ 1.8bn for Type 1 diabetes and £ 15.1bn for Type 2 diabetes) and £ 22.9bn in indirect costs (£ 2.4bn and £ 20.5bn). Sensitivity analysis applied to the direct costs produced a range of costs: between £ 7.9bn and £ 11.7bn in 2010/2011 and between £ 13.8bn and £20bn in 2035/2036. Diabetes currently accounts for approximately 10% of the total health resource expenditure and is projected to account for around 17% in 2035/2036. Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes are prominent diseases in the UK and are a significant economic burden. Data differentiating between the costs of Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes are sparse. Complications related to the diseases account for a substantial proportion of the direct health costs. As prevalence increases, the cost of treating complications will grow if current care regimes are maintained. © 2012 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2012 Diabetes UK.

  4. A methodology for the estimation of the radiological consequences of a Loss of Coolant Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kereszturi, Andras; Brolly, Aron; Panka, Istvan; Pazmandi, Tamas; Trosztel, Istvan [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). MTA EK, Centre for Energy Research

    2017-09-15

    For calculation of the radiological consequences of Large Break Loss of Coolant (LBLOCA) events, a set of various computer codes modeling the corresponding physical processes, disciplines and their appropriate subsequent data exchange are necessary. For demonstrating the methodology applied in MTA EK, a LBLOCA event at shut down reactor state - when only limited configuration of the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) is available - was selected. In this special case, fission gas release from a number of fuel pins is obtained from the analyses. This paper describes the initiating event and the corresponding thermal hydraulic calculations and the further physical processes, the necessary models and computer codes and their connections. Additionally the applied conservative assumptions and the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (B+U) evaluation applied for characterizing the pin power and burnup distribution in the core are presented. Also, the fuel behavior processes. Finally, the newly developed methodology to predict whether the fuel pins are getting in-hermetic or not is described and the the results of the activity transport and dose calculations are shown.

  5. Waste management programmatic environmental impact statement methodology for estimating human health risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergenback, B. [Midwest Technical, Inc. (United States); Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)] [and others

    1995-05-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has produced large quantities of radioactive and hazardous waste during years of nuclear weapons production. As a result, a large number of sites across the DOE Complex have become chemically and/or radiologically contaminated. In 1990, the Secretary of Energy charged the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM) with the task of preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). The PEIS should identify and assess the potential environmental impacts of implementing several integrated Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM) alternatives. The determination and integration of appropriate remediation activities and sound waste management practices is vital for ensuring the diminution of adverse human health impacts during site cleanup and waste management programs. This report documents the PEIS risk assessment methodology used to evaluate human health risks posed by WM activities. The methodology presents a programmatic cradle to grave risk assessment for EM program activities. A unit dose approach is used to estimate risks posed by WM activities and is the subject of this document.

  6. The Hospitalization Costs of Diabetes and Hypertension Complications in Zimbabwe: Estimations and Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutsa P. Mutowo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Treating complications associated with diabetes and hypertension imposes significant costs on health care systems. This study estimated the hospitalization costs for inpatients in a public hospital in Zimbabwe. Methods. The study was retrospective and utilized secondary data from medical records. Total hospitalization costs were estimated using generalized linear models. Results. The median cost and interquartile range (IQR for patients with diabetes, $994 (385–1553 mean $1319 (95% CI: 981–1657, was higher than patients with hypertension, $759 (494–1147 mean $914 (95% CI: 825–1003. Female patients aged below 65 years with diabetes had the highest estimated mean costs ($1467 (95% CI: 1177–1828. Wound care had the highest estimated mean cost of all procedures, $2884 (95% CI: 2004–4149 for patients with diabetes and $2239 (95% CI: 1589–3156 for patients with hypertension. Age below 65 years, medical procedures (amputation, wound care, dialysis, and physiotherapy, the presence of two or more comorbidities, and being prescribed two or more drugs were associated with significantly higher hospitalization costs. Conclusion. Our estimated costs could be used to evaluate and improve current inpatient treatment and management of patients with diabetes and hypertension and determine the most cost-effective interventions to prevent complications and comorbidities.

  7. The Role of Organisational Phenomena in Software Cost Estimation: A Case Study of Supporting and Hindering Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurka Rahikkala

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the fact that many researchers and practitioners agree that organisational issues are equally important as technical issues from the software cost estimation (SCE success point of view, most of the research focus has been put on the development of methods, whereas organisational factors have received surprisingly little academic scrutiny. This study aims to identify organisational factors that either support or hinder meaningful SCE, identifying their impact on estimation success. Top management’s role is specifically addressed. The study takes a qualitative and explorative case study based approach. In total, 18 semi-structured interviews aided the study of three projects in three organisations. Hence, the transferability of the results is limited. The results suggest that the role of the top management is important in creating prerequisites for meaningful estimation, but their day-to-day participation is not required for successful estimation. Top management may also induce undesired distortion in estimation. Estimation maturity and estimation success seem to have an interrelationship with software process maturity, but there seem to be no significant individual organisational factors, which alone would make estimation successful. Our results validate several distortions and biases reported in the previous studies, and show the SCE research focus has remained on methodologies and technical issues.

  8. Ontology-Based Representation and Reasoning in Building Construction Cost Estimation in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation is one of the most critical tasks for building construction project management. The existing building construction cost estimation methods of many countries, including China, require information from several sources, including material, labor, and equipment, and tend to be manual, time-consuming, and error-prone. To solve these problems, a building construction cost estimation model based on ontology representation and reasoning is established, which includes three major components, i.e., concept model ontology, work item ontology, and construction condition ontology. Using this model, the cost estimation information is modeled into OWL axioms and SWRL rules that leverage the semantically rich ontology representation to reason about cost estimation. Based on OWL axioms and SWRL rules, the cost estimation information can be translated into a set of concept models, work items, and construction conditions associated with the specific construction conditions. The proposed method is demonstrated in Protégé 3.4.8 through case studies based on the Measurement Specifications of Building Construction and Decoration Engineering taken from GB 50500-2013 (the Chinese national mandatory specifications. Finally, this research discusses the limitations of the proposed method and future research directions. The proposed method can help a building construction cost estimator extract information more easily and quickly.

  9. Using the gravity model to estimate the costs of protection

    OpenAIRE

    Wall, Howard J.

    1999-01-01

    Many economists expend a lot of energy decrying trade protectionism; nonetheless, their estimates of the actual burden that protectionism imposes on the economy have been surprisingly small. In this article, Howard J. Wall presents a method that captures some of the effects and distortions of trade protection which have not been captured by existing methods. Wall finds that during 1996, worldwide protectionism reduced U.S. exports by 26.2 percent. Likewise, U.S. protectionism decreased U.S. i...

  10. Estimate of the direct and indirect annual cost of bacterial conjunctivitis in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew F; Waycaster, Curtis

    2009-11-25

    The aim of this study was to estimate both the direct and indirect annual costs of treating bacterial conjunctivitis (BC) in the United States. This was a cost of illness study performed from a U.S. healthcare payer perspective. A comprehensive review of the medical literature was supplemented by data on the annual incidence of BC which was obtained from an analysis of the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) database for the year 2005. Cost estimates for medical visits and laboratory or diagnostic tests were derived from published Medicare CPT fee codes. The cost of prescription drugs was obtained from standard reference sources. Indirect costs were calculated as those due to lost productivity. Due to the acute nature of BC, no cost discounting was performed. All costs are expressed in 2007 U.S. dollars. The number of BC cases in the U.S. for 2005 was estimated at approximately 4 million yielding an estimated annual incidence rate of 135 per 10,000. Base-case analysis estimated the total direct and indirect cost of treating patients with BC in the United States at $ 589 million. One- way sensitivity analysis, assuming either a 20% variation in the annual incidence of BC or treatment costs, generated a cost range of $ 469 million to $ 705 million. Two-way sensitivity analysis, assuming a 20% variation in both the annual incidence of BC and treatment costs occurring simultaneously, resulted in an estimated cost range of $ 377 million to $ 857 million. The economic burden posed by BC is significant. The findings may prove useful to decision makers regarding the allocation of healthcare resources necessary to address the economic burden of BC in the United States.

  11. Estimate of the direct and indirect annual cost of bacterial conjunctivitis in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith Andrew F

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to estimate both the direct and indirect annual costs of treating bacterial conjunctivitis (BC in the United States. This was a cost of illness study performed from a U.S. healthcare payer perspective. Methods A comprehensive review of the medical literature was supplemented by data on the annual incidence of BC which was obtained from an analysis of the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS database for the year 2005. Cost estimates for medical visits and laboratory or diagnostic tests were derived from published Medicare CPT fee codes. The cost of prescription drugs was obtained from standard reference sources. Indirect costs were calculated as those due to lost productivity. Due to the acute nature of BC, no cost discounting was performed. All costs are expressed in 2007 U.S. dollars. Results The number of BC cases in the U.S. for 2005 was estimated at approximately 4 million yielding an estimated annual incidence rate of 135 per 10,000. Base-case analysis estimated the total direct and indirect cost of treating patients with BC in the United States at $ 589 million. One- way sensitivity analysis, assuming either a 20% variation in the annual incidence of BC or treatment costs, generated a cost range of $ 469 million to $ 705 million. Two-way sensitivity analysis, assuming a 20% variation in both the annual incidence of BC and treatment costs occurring simultaneously, resulted in an estimated cost range of $ 377 million to $ 857 million. Conclusion The economic burden posed by BC is significant. The findings may prove useful to decision makers regarding the allocation of healthcare resources necessary to address the economic burden of BC in the United States.

  12. Estimate of the direct and indirect annual cost of bacterial conjunctivitis in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Background The aim of this study was to estimate both the direct and indirect annual costs of treating bacterial conjunctivitis (BC) in the United States. This was a cost of illness study performed from a U.S. healthcare payer perspective. Methods A comprehensive review of the medical literature was supplemented by data on the annual incidence of BC which was obtained from an analysis of the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) database for the year 2005. Cost estimates for medical visits and laboratory or diagnostic tests were derived from published Medicare CPT fee codes. The cost of prescription drugs was obtained from standard reference sources. Indirect costs were calculated as those due to lost productivity. Due to the acute nature of BC, no cost discounting was performed. All costs are expressed in 2007 U.S. dollars. Results The number of BC cases in the U.S. for 2005 was estimated at approximately 4 million yielding an estimated annual incidence rate of 135 per 10,000. Base-case analysis estimated the total direct and indirect cost of treating patients with BC in the United States at $ 589 million. One- way sensitivity analysis, assuming either a 20% variation in the annual incidence of BC or treatment costs, generated a cost range of $ 469 million to $ 705 million. Two-way sensitivity analysis, assuming a 20% variation in both the annual incidence of BC and treatment costs occurring simultaneously, resulted in an estimated cost range of $ 377 million to $ 857 million. Conclusion The economic burden posed by BC is significant. The findings may prove useful to decision makers regarding the allocation of healthcare resources necessary to address the economic burden of BC in the United States. PMID:19939250

  13. Bigger is Better, but at What Cost? Estimating the Economic Value of Incremental Data Assets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalessandro, Brian; Perlich, Claudia; Raeder, Troy

    2014-06-01

    Many firms depend on third-party vendors to supply data for commercial predictive modeling applications. An issue that has received very little attention in the prior research literature is the estimation of a fair price for purchased data. In this work we present a methodology for estimating the economic value of adding incremental data to predictive modeling applications and present two cases studies. The methodology starts with estimating the effect that incremental data has on model performance in terms of common classification evaluation metrics. This effect is then translated into economic units, which gives an expected economic value that the firm might realize with the acquisition of a particular data asset. With this estimate a firm can then set a data acquisition price that targets a particular return on investment. This article presents the methodology in full detail and illustrates it in the context of two marketing case studies.

  14. Estimation of Congestion Cost of Private Passenger Car Users in Malioboro, Yogyakarta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutomo H.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Congestion is the condition when the hourly traffic demand exceeds the maximum sustainable hourly throughout of the link. The aim of this research is to estimate the congestion cost of private passenger car users in central business district along the corridor of Malioboro, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The amount of the congestion cost is the difference between perceived and actual generalized cost in traffic jam condition. In this paper, only the congestion costs of private passenger car users are estimated, as they are expected to shift to buses. The generalized costs from origin zone i to destination zone j consist of vehicle operating cost, travel time cost, and pollution cost. This study shows that while the perceived generalized cost for private cars at Central Business District (CBD Malioboro is IDR 3101.00 per trip, the actual generalized cost in traffic jam condition is IDR 5802.00 per trip, giving the estimation of congestion cost in CBD Malioboro for private passenger car users as IDR 2701.00 per trip.

  15. New estimates of the damage costs of climate change, Part I: benchmark estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2002-01-01

    A selection of the potential impacts of climate change - on agriculture, forestry, unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, human mortality, energy consumption, and water resources - are estimated and valued in monetary terms. Estimates are derived from globally comprehensive, internally consistent

  16. Cost estimate of hospital stays for premature newborns in a public tertiary hospital in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Maria Desgualdo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To estimate the direct costs of hospital stays for premature newborns in the Interlagos Hospital and Maternity Center in São Paulo, Brazil and to assess the difference between the amount reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System and the real cost of care for each premature newborn. METHODS: A cost-estimate study in which hospital and professional costs were estimated for premature infants born at 22 to 36 weeks gestation during the calendar year of 2004 and surviving beyond one hour of age. Direct costs included hospital services, professional care, diagnoses and therapy, orthotics, prosthetics, special materials, and blood products. Costs were estimated using tables published by the Unified Health System and the Brasindice as well as the list of medical procedures provided by the Brazilian Classification of Medical Procedures. RESULTS: The average direct cost of care for initial hospitalization of a premature newborn in 2004 was $2,386 USD. Total hospital expenses and professional services for all premature infants in this hospital were $227,000 and $69,500 USD, respectively. The costs for diagnostic testing and blood products for all premature infants totaled $22,440 and $1,833 USD. The daily average cost of a premature newborn weighing less than 1,000 g was $115 USD, and the daily average cost of a premature newborn weighing more than 2,500 g was $89 USD. Amounts reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System corresponded to only 27.42% of the real cost of care. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of hospital stays for premature newborns was much greater than the amount reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System. The highest costs corresponded to newborns with lower birth weight. Hospital costs progressively and discretely decreased as the newborns' weight increased.

  17. Estimation and comparison of ostomy appliance costs with tariffs in Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanleene, Veerle; De Maré, Luc; Moldenaers, Ingrid; Debruyne, Hans; Simoens, Steven; Van den Steen, Dirk; Ramaekers, Dirk

    2008-02-01

    This study estimated costs of production and distribution of ostomy appliances, and compared cost estimates with tariffs in Belgium. The cost model took into account manufacturing costs, overhead, R&D, warehousing, profits, and distribution margins. Data were derived from manufacturers, a decomposition of finished products, and interviews with stakeholders. The cost model generated estimated retail prices of euro 2.96 for one-piece appliances, euro 1.62 for two-piece pouches, and euro 2.06 for two-piece flanges. Production and distribution costs accounted for 40 and 60% of retail prices, respectively. Estimated retail prices corresponded well with tariffs for one-piece appliances and for two-piece pouches. For two-piece regular flanges, a substantial difference was observed between the calculated price of euro 2.06 and the tariffs of euro 6.05. In the absence of publicly disclosed information on the cost structure of appliances, estimating ostomy appliance costs is valuable to reimbursement agencies when setting tariffs.

  18. Small business start up compliance costs of the goods and services tax : estimates and lessons from tax reform

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    POPE, Jeff; Rametse, Nthati

    2002-01-01

    International tax compliance cost studies - difficulties of estimating start up costs - findings form respondents to a survey of Western Australian small businesses undertaken in 2000 - comparisons...

  19. On Measurement of Avoidable and Unavoidable Cost of Alcohol: An Application of Method for Estimating Costs Due To Prior Consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarl, Johan; Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Ludbrook, Anne; Petrie, Dennis

    2010-01-01

    This study estimates the avoidable and unavoidable costs of alcohol-related, liver cirrhosis inpatient care, controlling for the lag structure and period of decline in disease risk. Lag structures with different lengths are applied to the exposure to risk from alcohol consumption, which allows for differentiation between avoidable and unavoidable cases due to prior consumption. A lag length of 20 (men) and 23 (women) years (expected remaining life years) gives a total cost of 592 million SEK. Given alcohol consumption is reduced to zero, 72% of cost could potentially be avoided. It is important to account for the length and structure of the risk decline following a consumption change as this substantially affects the estimates. PMID:20717547

  20. Techniques for estimating health care costs with censored data: an overview for the health services researcher

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wijeysundera HC

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Harindra C Wijeysundera,1–5 Xuesong Wang,5 George Tomlinson,2,4 Dennis T Ko,1,3–5 Murray D Krahn,2–4,61Division of Cardiology, Schulich Heart Centre and Department of Medicine, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, 2Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA Collaborative, University of Toronto, 3Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, 4Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, 5Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, 6Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaObjective: The aim of this study was to review statistical techniques for estimating the mean population cost using health care cost data that, because of the inability to achieve complete follow-up until death, are right censored. The target audience is health service researchers without an advanced statistical background.Methods: Data were sourced from longitudinal heart failure costs from Ontario, Canada, and administrative databases were used for estimating costs. The dataset consisted of 43,888 patients, with follow-up periods ranging from 1 to 1538 days (mean 576 days. The study was designed so that mean health care costs over 1080 days of follow-up were calculated using naïve estimators such as full-sample and uncensored case estimators. Reweighted estimators – specifically, the inverse probability weighted estimator – were calculated, as was phase-based costing. Costs were adjusted to 2008 Canadian dollars using the Bank of Canada consumer price index (http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/cpi.html.Results: Over the restricted follow-up of 1080 days, 32% of patients were censored. The full-sample estimator was found to underestimate mean cost ($30,420 compared with the reweighted estimators ($36,490. The phase-based costing estimate of $37,237 was similar to that of the simple reweighted estimator.Conclusion: The authors recommend against the use of full

  1. Estimating the costs of induced abortion in Uganda: A model-based analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The demand for induced abortions in Uganda is high despite legal and moral proscriptions. Abortion seekers usually go to illegal, hidden clinics where procedures are performed in unhygienic environments by under-trained practitioners. These abortions, which are usually unsafe, lead to a high rate of severe complications and use of substantial, scarce healthcare resources. This study was performed to estimate the costs associated with induced abortions in Uganda. Methods A decision tree was developed to represent the consequences of induced abortion and estimate the costs of an average case. Data were obtained from a primary chart abstraction study, an on-going prospective study, and the published literature. Societal costs, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect (productivity) costs, costs to patients, and costs to the government were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty. Results The average societal cost per induced abortion (95% credibility range) was $177 ($140-$223). This is equivalent to $64 million in annual national costs. Of this, the average direct medical cost was $65 ($49-86) and the average direct non-medical cost was $19 ($16-$23). The average indirect cost was $92 ($57-$139). Patients incurred $62 ($46-$83) on average while government incurred $14 ($10-$20) on average. Conclusion Induced abortions are associated with substantial costs in Uganda and patients incur the bulk of the healthcare costs. This reinforces the case made by other researchers--that efforts by the government to reduce unsafe abortions by increasing contraceptive coverage or providing safe, legal abortions are critical. PMID:22145859

  2. Estimate of the cost of multiple sclerosis in Spain by literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Oscar; Calleja-Hernández, Miguel Angel; Meca-Lallana, José; Oreja-Guevara, Celia; Polanco, Ana; Pérez-Alcántara, Ferran

    2017-08-01

    Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a progressive disease leading to increasing disability and costs. A literature review was carried out to identify MS costs and to estimate its economic burden in Spain. Areas Covered: The public electronic databases PubMed, ScienceDirect and IBECS were consulted and a manual review of communications presented at related congresses was carried out. A total of 225 references were obtained, of which 43 were finally included in the study. Expert Commentary: Three major cost groups were identified: direct healthcare costs, direct non-healthcare costs and indirect costs. There is a direct relationship between disease progression and increased costs, mainly direct non-healthcare costs (greater need for informal care) and indirect costs (greater loss of productivity). The total cost associated with MS in Spain is €1,395 million per year, and that the mean annual cost per patient is €30,050. Beyond costs, a large impact on the quality of life of patients, with an annual loss of up to 13,000 quality-adjusted life years was also estimated. MS has a large economic impact on Spanish society and a significant impact on the quality of life of patients.

  3. LOW COST POTENTIAL INFILTRATION ESTIMATION FOR WET TROPICAL WATERSHEDS FOR TERRITORIAL PLANNING SUPPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franciane Mendonça dos Santos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was developed at Caçula stream watershed of Ilha Solteira (Brazil for potential infiltration estimation based on digital cartography. These methods aim at low-cost and quick analysis processes in order to support the territorial planning. The preliminary potential infiltration chart was produced using ArcHydro and pedological information of the study area. The curve-number method (Soil Conservation Service was used to determine the potential infiltration combining information related to landuse and soil types in the watershed. We also used a methodology that assumes being possible to evaluate potential infiltration of a watershed combining average annual rainfall, land-use and watershed natural attributes (geomorphology, geology and pedology. Results show that ArcHydro is efficient for a preliminary characterization because it shows flow accumulation areas, allowing higher potential of degradation areas in terms of floods, mass movement and erosion. As land-use classes have significant weight in Soil Conservation Service method assessing potential infiltration, this method allow us to evaluate how land-use changes affect water dynamic in the watershed. The propose based on natural environment attributes enables to determine the homologous infiltration areas based on a higher number of natural characteristics of the area, and thereby obtain a result that is closer to the local conditions and, consequently for degradation surface processes identification.

  4. A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

    2018-02-01

    Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

  5. Estimating marginal external costs for road, rail and river transport in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Gabriel Márquez Díaz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This report presents the results of research regarding strategic freight transport network modelling in Colombia using external cost. The model uses sequential equilibrium between distribution and traffic assignment phases; it is national and inter-regional, involving strategic decision-making. The Colombian transport network consists of 27,469 km of roads, 11,257 km of navigable rivers, 2,192 km of railway lines and a set of centroid connectors for establishing a link with the zoning system (consisting of 70 internal areas and 8 external areas. Each link in a network involves internal costs:  time, operation and external costs, congestion, accidents, air pollution and CO2 emissions. Vehicle ownership costs were excluded from internal cost analysis; costs such as noise, climate change and effects on the landscape were not studied in external costs. Marginal costs regarding the network were estimated by two methods. First, it was assumed that an additional unit of demand did not affect equilibrium in a transport network and then marginal cost was estimated as being the sum of marginal costs regarding links in the shortest path. The other approach assumed that an additional unit of demand changed network equilibrium; marginal costs were then estimated by calculating the difference between the two equilibrium scenarios. The methods were applied to 7 selected routes covering the most important Colombian freight transport corridors. An average 0.014 US$/ton/km rate was estimated for external costs regarding highway transport, 0.000105 US$/ton/km for water transport and 0.001625 US$/ton/km for railroad transport (preponderance of environmental costs exceeding 90%.

  6. Technology Cost and Schedule Estimation (TCASE) Final Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Jon; Schaffer, Mark

    2015-01-01

    During the 2014-2015 project year, the focus of the TCASE project has shifted from collection of historical data from many sources to securing a data pipeline between TCASE and NASA's widely used TechPort system. TCASE v1.0 implements a data import solution that was achievable within the project scope, while still providing the basis for a long-term ability to keep TCASE in sync with TechPort. Conclusion: TCASE data quantity is adequate and the established data pipeline will enable future growth. Data quality is now highly dependent the quality of data in TechPort. Recommendation: Technology development organizations within NASA should continue to work closely with project/program data tracking and archiving efforts (e.g. TechPort) to ensure that the right data is being captured at the appropriate quality level. TCASE would greatly benefit, for example, if project cost/budget information was included in TechPort in the future.

  7. Parametric study of the cost estimate for radio frequency system of compact linear collider

    CERN Document Server

    Nummela, Antti; Österberg, Kenneth

    In this thesis the cost of so called RF units of CLIC particle collider was examined when RF units’ configuration was considered to be lengthened according to several alternative scenarios. According to current estimates these structures correspond to approximately 20 % of the total cost of CLIC collider and as such the savings achieved in their cost could be significant when total cost of CLIC project is looked into. The unit cost of longer RF units would be greater when compared to the baseline scenario but as smaller quantity would be required cost savings might be achieved. The aim was to find out if cost savings would accumulate and if so, how significant these savings might be. Research material used was mainly internal CERN resources such as earlier cost estimates and tenders received from the industry for production of different components. Based on these cost estimate models were created for three different configurations for lengthening the RF units. The research was limited to the cost of RF unit...

  8. Methodology to estimate variations in solar radiation reaching densely forested slopes in mountainous terrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sypka, Przemysław; Starzak, Rafał; Owsiak, Krzysztof

    2016-12-01

    Solar radiation reaching densely forested slopes is one of the main factors influencing the water balance between the atmosphere, tree stands and the soil. It also has a major impact on site productivity, spatial arrangement of vegetation structure as well as forest succession. This paper presents a methodology to estimate variations in solar radiation reaching tree stands in a small mountain valley. Measurements taken in three inter-forest meadows unambiguously showed the relationship between the amount of solar insolation and the shading effect caused mainly by the contour of surrounding tree stands. Therefore, appropriate knowledge of elevation, aspect and tilt angles of the analysed planes had to be taken into consideration during modelling. At critical times, especially in winter, the diffuse and reflected components of solar radiation only reached some of the sites studied as the beam component of solar radiation was totally blocked by the densely forested mountain slopes in the neighbourhood. The cross-section contours and elevation angles of all obstructions are estimated from a digital surface model including both digital elevation model and the height of tree stands. All the parameters in a simplified, empirical model of the solar insolation reaching a given horizontal surface within the research valley are dependent on the sky view factor (SVF). The presented simplified, empirical model and its parameterisation scheme should be easily adaptable to different complex terrains or mountain valleys characterised by diverse geometry or spatial orientation. The model was developed and validated (R 2  = 0.92 , σ = 0.54) based on measurements taken at research sites located in the Silesian Beskid Mountain Range. A thorough understanding of the factors determining the amount of solar radiation reaching woodlands ought to considerably expand the knowledge of the water exchange balance within forest complexes as well as the estimation of site

  9. Methodology to estimate variations in solar radiation reaching densely forested slopes in mountainous terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sypka, Przemysław; Starzak, Rafał; Owsiak, Krzysztof

    2016-12-01

    Solar radiation reaching densely forested slopes is one of the main factors influencing the water balance between the atmosphere, tree stands and the soil. It also has a major impact on site productivity, spatial arrangement of vegetation structure as well as forest succession. This paper presents a methodology to estimate variations in solar radiation reaching tree stands in a small mountain valley. Measurements taken in three inter-forest meadows unambiguously showed the relationship between the amount of solar insolation and the shading effect caused mainly by the contour of surrounding tree stands. Therefore, appropriate knowledge of elevation, aspect and tilt angles of the analysed planes had to be taken into consideration during modelling. At critical times, especially in winter, the diffuse and reflected components of solar radiation only reached some of the sites studied as the beam component of solar radiation was totally blocked by the densely forested mountain slopes in the neighbourhood. The cross-section contours and elevation angles of all obstructions are estimated from a digital surface model including both digital elevation model and the height of tree stands. All the parameters in a simplified, empirical model of the solar insolation reaching a given horizontal surface within the research valley are dependent on the sky view factor ( SVF). The presented simplified, empirical model and its parameterisation scheme should be easily adaptable to different complex terrains or mountain valleys characterised by diverse geometry or spatial orientation. The model was developed and validated ( R 2 = 0.92 , σ = 0.54) based on measurements taken at research sites located in the Silesian Beskid Mountain Range. A thorough understanding of the factors determining the amount of solar radiation reaching woodlands ought to considerably expand the knowledge of the water exchange balance within forest complexes as well as the estimation of site productivity.

  10. ALTERNATIVE METHODOLOGIES FOR THE ESTIMATION OF LOCAL POINT DENSITY INDEX: MOVING TOWARDS ADAPTIVE LIDAR DATA PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Lari

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the past few years, LiDAR systems have been established as a leading technology for the acquisition of high density point clouds over physical surfaces. These point clouds will be processed for the extraction of geo-spatial information. Local point density is one of the most important properties of the point cloud that highly affects the performance of data processing techniques and the quality of extracted information from these data. Therefore, it is necessary to define a standard methodology for the estimation of local point density indices to be considered for the precise processing of LiDAR data. Current definitions of local point density indices, which only consider the 2D neighbourhood of individual points, are not appropriate for 3D LiDAR data and cannot be applied for laser scans from different platforms. In order to resolve the drawbacks of these methods, this paper proposes several approaches for the estimation of the local point density index which take the 3D relationship among the points and the physical properties of the surfaces they belong to into account. In the simplest approach, an approximate value of the local point density for each point is defined while considering the 3D relationship among the points. In the other approaches, the local point density is estimated by considering the 3D neighbourhood of the point in question and the physical properties of the surface which encloses this point. The physical properties of the surfaces enclosing the LiDAR points are assessed through eigen-value analysis of the 3D neighbourhood of individual points and adaptive cylinder methods. This paper will discuss these approaches and highlight their impact on various LiDAR data processing activities (i.e., neighbourhood definition, region growing, segmentation, boundary detection, and classification. Experimental results from airborne and terrestrial LiDAR data verify the efficacy of considering local point density variation for

  11. Selection of relevant items for decommissioning costing estimation of a PWR using fuzzy logic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteiro, Deiglys Borges; Busse, Alexander Lucas; Moreira, Joao M.L.; Maiorino, Jose Rubens, E-mail: deiglys.monteiro@ufabc.edu.br, E-mail: alexlucasb@gmail.com, E-mail: joao.moreira@ufabc.edu.br, E-mail: joserubens.maiorino@ufabc.edu.br [Universidade Federal do ABC (CECS/UFABC), Santo Andre, SP (Brazil). Centro de Engenharia, Modelagem e Ciencias Aplicadas. Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Energia e Engenharia da Energia

    2015-07-01

    The decommissioning is an important part of a nuclear power plant life cycle which may occur by technical, economical or safety reasons. Decommissioning requires carrying out a large number of tasks that should be planned in advance, involves cost evaluations, preparation of plans of activity and actual operational actions. Despite the large number of tasks, only part of them is relevant for cost estimation purpose. The technical literature and international regulatory agencies suggest a variety of methods for decommissioning cost estimation. Most of them require a very detailed knowledge of the plant and data available suitable for plants that are starting their decommissioning but not for those in the planning stage. The present work aims to apply fuzzy logic to sort out relevant items to cost estimation in order to reduce the work effort involved. The scheme uses parametric equations for specific cost items, and is applied to specific parts of the process of nuclear power plant decommissioning. (author)

  12. Moving Beyond Blind Men and Elephants: Providing Total Estimated Annual Costs Improves Health Insurance Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Andrew J; Hanoch, Yaniv; Rice, Thomas; Long, Sharon K

    2017-10-01

    Health insurance is among the most important financial and health-related decisions that people make. Choosing a health insurance plan that offers sufficient risk protection is difficult, in part because total expected health care costs are not transparent. This study examines the effect of providing total costs estimates on health insurance decisions using a series of hypothetical choice experiments given to 7,648 individuals responding to the fall 2015 Health Reform Monitoring Survey. Participants were given two health scenarios presented in random order asking which of three insurance plans would best meet their needs. Half received total estimated costs, which increased the probability of choosing a cost-minimizing plan by 3.0 to 10.6 percentage points, depending on the scenario ( p < .01). With many consumers choosing or failing to switch out of plans that offer insufficient coverage, incorporating insights on consumer decision making with personalized information to estimate costs can improve the quality of health insurance choices.

  13. Estimating the indirect costs associated with the expected number of cancer cases in Mexico by 2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Delgado, Cristina; Armas-Texta, Daniel; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Meneses-García, Abelardo; Mohar-Betancourt, Alejandro

    2016-04-01

    To estimate the indirect costs generated by adults with cancer in Mexico from 2002-2020. Using information from national sources and the national cancer incidence from GLOBOCAN, we estimated income lost due to premature death (ILPD), short-term benefits (STBs), disability pensions (DPs), and opportunity costs for the carer (OCCs) generated by patients with cancer. Amounts were reported in Mexican pesos. We estimated 23 359 deaths and 216 679 new cases of cancer by 2020, which would be associated with a total indirect cost of 20.15 billion Mexican pesos. Men are expected to generate 54.9% of these costs. ILPD is expected to comprise the highest percentage of the cost (60%), followed by OCCs (22%), STBs (17%) and DPs (1%). From an economic perspective, the results emphasize the need to strengthen preventive interventions and early detection of cancer among adults to reduce its effect on the productivity of Mexico.

  14. Statistical estimation of service cracks and maintenance cost for aircraft structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.-N.

    1975-01-01

    A method is developed for the statistical estimation of the number of cracks to be repaired in service as well as the repair and the maintenance costs. The present approach accounts for the statistical distribution of the initial crack size, the statistical nature of the NDI technique used for detecting the crack, and the renewal process for the crack propagation of repaired cracks. The mean and the standard deviation of the cumulative number of cracks to be repaired are computed as a function of service time. The statistics of the costs of repair and maintenance, expressed in terms of the percentage of the cost of replacement, are estimated as a function of service time. The results of the present study provide relevant information for the decision of fleet management, the estimation of life cycle cost, and procurement specifications. The present study is essential to the design and cost optimization of aircraft structures.

  15. Twice-weighted multiple interval estimation of a marginal structural model to analyze cost-effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfeld, K S

    2014-03-30

    Cost-effectiveness analysis is an important tool that can be applied to the evaluation of a health treatment or policy. When the observed costs and outcomes result from a nonrandomized treatment, making causal inference about the effects of the treatment requires special care. The challenges are compounded when the observation period is truncated for some of the study subjects. This paper presents a method of unbiased estimation of cost-effectiveness using observational study data that is not fully observed. The method-twice-weighted multiple interval estimation of a marginal structural model-was developed in order to analyze the cost-effectiveness of treatment protocols for advanced dementia residents living nursing homes when they become acutely ill. A key feature of this estimation approach is that it facilitates a sensitivity analysis that identifies the potential effects of unmeasured confounding on the conclusions concerning cost-effectiveness. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. A Comparison of the Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel Methodologies Employed Across the Department of Defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    30 7. Platform Delivery Specific Costs The ground platform delivery specific costs are calculated as: Step 7Ground = NFP * (T + ITV + FP...Rex) * (T + FP + Rex) * (1 – Rex) (3.14) Where: Step 7Ground = Other ground platform delivery specific costs NFP = The NATO

  17. Analysis of Transaction Costs in Logistics and the Methodologies for Their Information Reflection for Automotive Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ol’ga Evgen’evna Kovrizhnykh

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Transaction costs emerge in different types of logistics activities and influence the material flow and the accompanying financial and information flows; due to this fact, the information support and assessment are important tasks for the enterprise. The paper analyzes transaction costs in logistics for automotive manufacturers; according to the analysis, the level of these costs in any functional area of “logistics supply” ranges from 1.5 to 20%. These are only the official figures of transaction costs of enterprises that do not take into consideration implicit costs. Despite the growing interest in transaction costs in logistics in the latest fifteen years, this topic is covered rather poorly in Russian literature; the definition of “transaction costs” is unclear, there is no technique of their information reflection and assessment. We have developed the methods for information reflection of transaction costs that can be used by automotive enterprises. Each enterprise will have an opportunity to choose the most suitable technique for information reflection of transaction costs or to compare the level of transaction costs when using different techniques. Application of techniques for information reflection of transaction costs allows the enterprises to increase profits by optimizing and reducing costs and using their assets more effectively, to identify possible ways to improve cost parameters of their performance, to improve their efficiency and productivity; to cut out unnecessary or duplicate activities, to optimize the number of staff involved in a particular activity

  18. Phase III : GIS for the Appalachian Development Highway System 2007 cost to complete estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-02-01

    The proposed research will create an ADHS GIS for integrating and disseminating GIS and transportation data that will increase the accuracy and efficiency associated with completing the 2007 ADHS Cost to Complete Estimate. This project will create ap...

  19. Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kim, Chulmin; Kim, Sungki; Ko, Wonil; Nam, Hyoon; Chung, Yanghon; Bang, Sungsig

    2017-01-01

    .... In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis...

  20. Estimated Costs of Continuing Operations in Iraq and Other Operations of the Global War on Terrorism

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Holtz-Eakin, Douglas

    2004-01-01

    At the request of Senator Conrad, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the costs of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and other operations associated with the global war on terrorism (GWOT...

  1. Combining uncertainty-estimation techniques and cost-benefit analysis to obtain consistent design-flood estimators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botto, A.; Ganora, D.; Laio, F.; Claps, P.

    2012-04-01

    Traditionally, flood frequency analysis has been used to assess the design discharge for hydraulic infrastructures. Unfortunately, this method involves uncertainties, be they of random or epistemic nature. Despite some success in measuring uncertainty, e.g. by means of numerical simulations, exhaustive methods for their evaluation are still an open challenge to the scientific community. The proposed method aims to improve the standard models for design flood estimation, considering the hydrological uncertainties inherent with the classic flood frequency analysis, in combination with cost-benefit analysis. Within this framework, two of the main issues related to flood risk are taken into account: on the one hand statistical flood frequency analysis is complemented with suitable uncertainty estimates; on the other hand the economic value of the flood-prone land is considered, as well as the economic losses in case of overflow. Consider a case where discharge data are available at the design site: the proposed procedure involves the following steps: (i) for a given return period T the design discharge is obtained using standard statistical inference (for example, using the GEV distribution and the method of L- moments to estimate the parameters); (ii) Monte Carlo simulations are performed to quantify the parametric uncertainty related to the design-flood estimator: 10000 triplets of L-moment values are randomly sampled from their relevant multivariate distribution, and 10000 values of the T-year discharge are obtained ; (iii) a procedure called the least total expected cost (LTEC) design approach is applied as described hereafter: linear cost and damage functions are proposed so that the ratio between the slope of the damage function and the slope of the cost function is equal to T. The expected total cost (sum of the cost plus the expected damage) is obtained for each of the 10000 design value estimators, and the estimator corresponding to the minimum total cost is

  2. Comparison of Publically Available Methodologies for Development of Geologic Storage Estimates for Carbon Dioxide in Saline Formations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, A.; Strazisar, B. R.; Guthrie, G. D.; Bromhal, G.

    2012-12-01

    High-level estimates of CO2 storage potential at the national, regional, and basin scale are required to assess the potential for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies to reduce CO2 emissions for application to saline formations. Both private and public entities worldwide rely on CO2 storage potential estimates for broad energy-related government policy and business decisions. High-level estimates of CO2 geologic storage potential, however, have a high degree of uncertainty because the assessments rely on simplifying assumptions due to the deficiency or absence of data from the subsurface associated with areas of potential storage in saline formations and the natural heterogeneity of geologic formations in general, resulting in undefined rock properties. As site characterization progresses to individual CO2 storage sites, additional site-specific data will likely be collected and analyzed that will allow for the refinement of high-level CO2 storage resource estimates and development of CO2 storage capacities. Until such detailed characterization can be documented, dependable high-level CO2 storage estimates are essential to ensure successful widespread deployment of CCUS technologies. Initiatives for assessing CO2 geologic storage potential have been conducted since 1993. Although dependable high-level CO2 storage estimates are essential to ensure successful deployment of CCUS technologies, it is difficult to assess the uncertainty of these estimates without knowing how the current methodologies targeted at high-level CO2 storage resource estimates for saline formations compare to one another. In this study, we compare high-level CO2 methodologies for development of geologic storage estimates for CO2 in saline formations to assess the uncertainty associated with various methodologies. The methodologies applied are listed as follows: (1) U.S. DOE Methodology: Development of Geologic Storage Potential for Carbon Dioxide at the National and

  3. Estimation of price-cost margins and union bargaining power for Belgian manufacturing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dobbelaere, S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper extends Hall's (1988) [Hall, R.E., 1988. The relationship between price and marginal cost in US industry, Journal of Political Economy, 96, 921-947] methodology to analyze imperfections in both the product and the labor market for firms in the Belgian manufacturing industry over the

  4. Estimating the costs of implementing the rotavirus vaccine in the national immunisation programme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Lizell B; Ustrup, Marte; Hansen, Kristian S

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Worldwide, rotavirus infections cause approximately 453,000 child deaths annually. Two licensed vaccines could be life- and cost-saving in low-income countries where the disease burden is highest. The aim of our study was to estimate the total cost of implementing the rotavirus vaccine...... implementation in Malawi amounted to US$ 18.5 million over a 5-years period. This translated into US$ 5.8 per child in the birth cohort. With GAVI Alliance financial support, the total cost was reduced to US$ 1.4 per child in the birth cohort. Approximately 83% of the total cost was attributed to vaccine...... in the national immunisation programme of a low-income country. Furthermore, the aim was to examine the relative contribution of different components to the total cost. METHODS: Following the World Health Organization guidelines, we estimated the resource use and costs associated with rotavirus vaccine...

  5. Reliable estimates of predictive uncertainty for an Alpine catchment using a non-parametric methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matos, José P.; Schaefli, Bettina; Schleiss, Anton J.

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty affects hydrological modelling efforts from the very measurements (or forecasts) that serve as inputs to the more or less inaccurate predictions that are produced. Uncertainty is truly inescapable in hydrology and yet, due to the theoretical and technical hurdles associated with its quantification, it is at times still neglected or estimated only qualitatively. In recent years the scientific community has made a significant effort towards quantifying this hydrologic prediction uncertainty. Despite this, most of the developed methodologies can be computationally demanding, are complex from a theoretical point of view, require substantial expertise to be employed, and are constrained by a number of assumptions about the model error distribution. These assumptions limit the reliability of many methods in case of errors that show particular cases of non-normality, heteroscedasticity, or autocorrelation. The present contribution builds on a non-parametric data-driven approach that was developed for uncertainty quantification in operational (real-time) forecasting settings. The approach is based on the concept of Pareto optimality and can be used as a standalone forecasting tool or as a postprocessor. By virtue of its non-parametric nature and a general operating principle, it can be applied directly and with ease to predictions of streamflow, water stage, or even accumulated runoff. Also, it is a methodology capable of coping with high heteroscedasticity and seasonal hydrological regimes (e.g. snowmelt and rainfall driven events in the same catchment). Finally, the training and operation of the model are very fast, making it a tool particularly adapted to operational use. To illustrate its practical use, the uncertainty quantification method is coupled with a process-based hydrological model to produce statistically reliable forecasts for an Alpine catchment located in Switzerland. Results are presented and discussed in terms of their reliability and

  6. Estimating the reliability of glycemic index values and potential sources of methodological and biological variability123

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthan, Nirupa R; Ausman, Lynne M; Meng, Huicui; Tighiouart, Hocine

    2016-01-01

    Background: The utility of glycemic index (GI) values for chronic disease risk management remains controversial. Although absolute GI value determinations for individual foods have been shown to vary significantly in individuals with diabetes, there is a dearth of data on the reliability of GI value determinations and potential sources of variability among healthy adults. Objective: We examined the intra- and inter-individual variability in glycemic response to a single food challenge and methodologic and biological factors that potentially mediate this response. Design: The GI value for white bread was determined by using standardized methodology in 63 volunteers free from chronic disease and recruited to differ by sex, age (18–85 y), and body mass index [BMI (in kg/m2): 20–35]. Volunteers randomly underwent 3 sets of food challenges involving glucose (reference) and white bread (test food), both providing 50 g available carbohydrates. Serum glucose and insulin were monitored for 5 h postingestion, and GI values were calculated by using different area under the curve (AUC) methods. Biochemical variables were measured by using standard assays and body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Results: The mean ± SD GI value for white bread was 62 ± 15 when calculated by using the recommended method. Mean intra- and interindividual CVs were 20% and 25%, respectively. Increasing sample size, replication of reference and test foods, and length of blood sampling, as well as AUC calculation method, did not improve the CVs. Among the biological factors assessed, insulin index and glycated hemoglobin values explained 15% and 16% of the variability in mean GI value for white bread, respectively. Conclusions: These data indicate that there is substantial variability in individual responses to GI value determinations, demonstrating that it is unlikely to be a good approach to guiding food choices. Additionally, even in healthy individuals, glycemic status

  7. Estimating the reliability of glycemic index values and potential sources of methodological and biological variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthan, Nirupa R; Ausman, Lynne M; Meng, Huicui; Tighiouart, Hocine; Lichtenstein, Alice H

    2016-10-01

    The utility of glycemic index (GI) values for chronic disease risk management remains controversial. Although absolute GI value determinations for individual foods have been shown to vary significantly in individuals with diabetes, there is a dearth of data on the reliability of GI value determinations and potential sources of variability among healthy adults. We examined the intra- and inter-individual variability in glycemic response to a single food challenge and methodologic and biological factors that potentially mediate this response. The GI value for white bread was determined by using standardized methodology in 63 volunteers free from chronic disease and recruited to differ by sex, age (18-85 y), and body mass index [BMI (in kg/m2): 20-35]. Volunteers randomly underwent 3 sets of food challenges involving glucose (reference) and white bread (test food), both providing 50 g available carbohydrates. Serum glucose and insulin were monitored for 5 h postingestion, and GI values were calculated by using different area under the curve (AUC) methods. Biochemical variables were measured by using standard assays and body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The mean ± SD GI value for white bread was 62 ± 15 when calculated by using the recommended method. Mean intra- and interindividual CVs were 20% and 25%, respectively. Increasing sample size, replication of reference and test foods, and length of blood sampling, as well as AUC calculation method, did not improve the CVs. Among the biological factors assessed, insulin index and glycated hemoglobin values explained 15% and 16% of the variability in mean GI value for white bread, respectively. These data indicate that there is substantial variability in individual responses to GI value determinations, demonstrating that it is unlikely to be a good approach to guiding food choices. Additionally, even in healthy individuals, glycemic status significantly contributes to the variability in GI value

  8. Why don't All Exporters Benefit from Trace Trade Agreements?: Estimating Utilization Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Alfie Ulloa; Rodrigo Wagner

    2012-01-01

    Free Trade Agreements (FTA) attract significant interest, but after these treaties are signed not all exporters use them. We provide a model of heterogeneous utilization, also developing a novel method to estimate treaty-utilization costs. We later apply the model to estimate the evolution utilization costs for the FTA between the US and a small open economy, Chile. Consistent with other studies, we find that utilization is indeed partial (on average 67% on the first year of the treaty, with ...

  9. Methodology for Evaluating Cost-effectiveness of Commercial Energy Code Changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Philip R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Bing [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-01-31

    This document lays out the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) method for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of energy code proposals and editions. The evaluation is applied to provisions or editions of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) Standard 90.1 and the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). The method follows standard life-cycle cost (LCC) economic analysis procedures. Cost-effectiveness evaluation requires three steps: 1) evaluating the energy and energy cost savings of code changes, 2) evaluating the incremental and replacement costs related to the changes, and 3) determining the cost-effectiveness of energy code changes based on those costs and savings over time.

  10. METHODOLOGICAL BASES OF PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF PRODUCTION COSTS MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING AT OIL AND FAT ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Mykhalska

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Implementing of models of production costs management accounting in response to responsibility centers into Ukrainian oil and fat enterprises is the aim of their full optimization in terms of current competitive market. Setting production costs as an object of every single responsibility center will enable to update the whole range of accounting operations on costs paperwork, used raw and other materials assessment, cost recovery from labour costs with benefits-related deduction, depreciation recovery due to season production variability, services distribution of auxiliary and service departments and general production costs. In this regard, referring to the current costs accounting at oil and fat enterprises of Ukraine it should be admitted that the main purpose of the article is to explore the above-mentioned issues.

  11. Estimating US dairy clinical disease costs with a stochastic simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, D; Arnold, L M; Stowe, C J; Harmon, R J; Bewley, J M

    2017-02-01

    A farm-level stochastic model was used to estimate costs of 7 common clinical diseases in the United States: mastitis, lameness, metritis, retained placenta, left-displaced abomasum, ketosis, and hypocalcemia. The total disease costs were divided into 7 categories: veterinary and treatment, producer labor, milk loss, discarded milk, culling cost, extended days open, and on-farm death. A Monte Carlo simulation with 5,000 iterations was applied to the model to account for inherent system variation. Four types of market prices (milk, feed, slaughter, and replacement cow) and 3 herd-performance factors (rolling herd average, product of heat detection rate and conception rate, and age at first calving) were modeled stochastically. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to study the relationship between total disease costs and selected stochastic factors. In general, the disease costs in multiparous cows were greater than in primiparous cows. Left-displaced abomasum had the greatest estimated total costs in all parities ($432.48 in primiparous cows and $639.51 in multiparous cows). Cost category contributions varied for different diseases and parities. Milk production loss and treatment cost were the 2 greatest cost categories. The effect of market prices were consistent in all diseases and parities; higher milk and replacement prices increased total costs, whereas greater feed and slaughter prices decreased disease costs. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. 48 CFR 1836.203 - Government estimate of construction costs.(NASA supplements paragraph (c))

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Government estimate of construction costs.(NASA supplements paragraph (c)) 1836.203 Section 1836.203 Federal Acquisition Regulations... construction costs.(NASA supplements paragraph (c)) (c)(i) If the acquisition is by sealed bidding, the...

  13. Estimating the costs of reducing CO2 emission via avoided deforestation with integrated assessment modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overmars, K.P.; Tabeau, A.A.; Stehfest, E.; Meijl, van J.C.M.

    2012-01-01

    Estimates for deforestation and forest degradation were shown to account for about 17% of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs. Proper calculation of such a costs requires integrated modeling approach involving

  14. Two Computer Programs for Equipment Cost Estimation and Economic Evaluation of Chemical Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuri, Carlos J.; Corripio, Armando B.

    1984-01-01

    Describes two computer programs for use in process design courses: an easy-to-use equipment cost estimation program based on latest cost correlations available and an economic evaluation program which calculates two profitability indices. Comparisons between programed and hand-calculated results are included. (JM)

  15. Cost Spreading in College Athletic Spending in the United States: Estimates and Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipford, Jody W.; Slice, Jerry K.

    2017-01-01

    With rising costs, mounting student debt, and many schools experiencing financial hardship, the higher education industry faces unwanted scrutiny from the popular media and political sector. College athletics too have come under close examination because of rising costs and internal subsidies. In this paper, we provide estimates of the per-student…

  16. An Inverse Methodology to Estimate the Flow Released from a Levee Breach

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Oria, M.; Mignosa, P.; Tanda, M. G.

    2014-12-01

    When a levee breach occurs a remarkable volume of water is released causing the inundation of an extended area. To accurately reproduce the flooding resulting from the failure, the discharge over time leaving the river must be known. This flow rate is conditioned by many factors such as: 1. the river water levels in proximity of the failure; 2. the geometry of the breach and its evolution in time; 3. the water level of the flooded area that can produce backwater effects and thus reduce the leaving flow rate or in some case reverse the flow; and 4. the provisional works aimed at fixing the failure. However, from a practical point of view, many of the previous data are hardly known and usually the only available information is the position and the finally geometry of the breach and sometimes its opening time. But, if gauging stations are located in proximity of the failure, the water levels observed upstream and mainly downstream the levee breach are affected by the discharge leaving or eventually re-entering the river. In this work, a Bayesian inverse methodology to estimate the discharge time series leaving a levee breach based on the water levels recorded downstream and/or upstream the failure site is proposed. Prior information, in forms of geostatistical functions, regularizes the solution. The required simulation of the forward problem, able to reproduce the river flow routing and the discharge leaving the breach, has been accomplished by means of the 1D HEC-RAS model. The Uniform Later Flow boundary condition of HEC-RAS has been used to simulate the flow leaving/entering the river across the breach. Synthetic examples with and without the above mentioned back water effects and provisional works has been used to test the procedure. Different levee breaches modeled by means of a lateral weir with movable gates has been simulated to collect the synthetic level data then used in the inverse procedure. The methodology was able to accurately reproduce the flow

  17. The economics of scaling up: cost estimation for HIV/AIDS interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumaranayake, Lilani

    2008-07-01

    The scaling up of HIV/AIDS programming has been one of the most extensive undertakings in international public health. Yet decision-makers are encountering significant uncertainties about financing and the need to understand programming costs at different scales of delivery. To review the economic methodologies for examining costs and variation by scale. To summarize and synthesize the current evidence related to the provision of HIV/AIDS interventions and scaling up. We used a review of economic methodologies to generate a conceptual framework for classifying existing data, looking at both short-run and long-run perspectives. A review of the literature was performed using PubMed and available grey literature. Factors facilitating comparison and generalizability are highlighted. There is growing evidence of scale variation among the costs of HIV/AIDS interventions. Scale variation has been found to explain 26-70% of cost variation across locations for similar interventions. Average costs may become larger or smaller as the volume of services expands, depending on the level of coverage and type of intervention. Key constraints to scaling up include infrastructure investments and cost results need to be interpreted in this light. Evidence to date suggests that cost efficiencies associated with scale may reflect different ways of delivering services at higher volumes, including lower quality outputs. There is still, however, an extremely limited economic evidence base and mechanisms to integrate economic analyses into routine programme monitoring are recommended.

  18. METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL CLEANING PERIOD OF HEAT EXCHANGERS BY USING THE CRITERIA OF MINIMUM COST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanileisy Rodríguez Calderón

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the most serious problems of the Process Industry is that when planning the maintenance of the heat exchangers is not applied the methodologies based on economic criteria to optimize periods of cleaning surfaces resulting in additional costs for the company and for the country. This work develops and proposes a methodical based on the criterion of Minimum Cost for determining the optimal cleaning period. It is given an example of application of this method to the case of intercoolers of a centrifugal compressor with a high fouling level.It occurs this because is used sea water with many microorganisms as cooling agent which severely embeds transfer surfaces of side water. The methodology employed can be generalized to other applications.

  19. Artificial neural networks incorporating cost significant Items towards enhancing estimation for (life-cycle costing of construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayedh Alqahtani

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial application of life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA is somewhat limited, with techniques deemed overly theoretical, resulting in a reluctance to realise (and pass onto the client the advantages to be gained from objective (LCCA comparison of (subcomponent material specifications. To address the need for a user-friendly structured approach to facilitate complex processing, the work described here develops a new, accessible framework for LCCA of construction projects; it acknowledges Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs to compute the whole-cost(s of construction and uses the concept of cost significant items (CSI to identify the main cost factors affecting the accuracy of estimation. ANNs is a powerful means to handle non-linear problems and subsequently map between complex input/output data, address uncertainties. A case study documenting 20 building projects was used to test the framework and estimate total running costs accurately. Two methods were used to develop a neural network model; firstly a back-propagation method was adopted (using MATLAB SOFTWARE; and secondly, spread-sheet optimisation was conducted (using Microsoft Excel Solver. The best network was established as consisting of 19 hidden nodes, with the tangent sigmoid used as a transfer function of NNs model for both methods. The results find that in both neural network models, the accuracy of the developed NNs model is 1% (via Excel-solver and 2% (via back-propagation respectively.

  20. New estimates of the damage costs of climate change, Part II: dynamic estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2002-01-01

    Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts are expressed as functions of climate change and 'vulnerability'. Vulnerability is measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, population above 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine world

  1. Cost estimation for solid waste management in industrialising regions--precedents, problems and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthan, Shantha R; Milke, Mark W; Wilson, David C; Cocks, John H

    2012-03-01

    The importance of cost planning for solid waste management (SWM) in industrialising regions (IR) is not well recognised. The approaches used to estimate costs of SWM can broadly be classified into three categories - the unit cost method, benchmarking techniques and developing cost models using sub-approaches such as cost and production function analysis. These methods have been developed into computer programmes with varying functionality and utility. IR mostly use the unit cost and benchmarking approach to estimate their SWM costs. The models for cost estimation, on the other hand, are used at times in industrialised countries, but not in IR. Taken together, these approaches could be viewed as precedents that can be modified appropriately to suit waste management systems in IR. The main challenges (or problems) one might face while attempting to do so are a lack of cost data, and a lack of quality for what data do exist. There are practical benefits to planners in IR where solid waste problems are critical and budgets are limited. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Integrating Low-Cost Rapid Usability Testing into Agile System Development of Healthcare IT: A Methodological Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushniruk, Andre W; Borycki, Elizabeth M

    2015-01-01

    The development of more usable and effective healthcare information systems has become a critical issue. In the software industry methodologies such as agile and iterative development processes have emerged to lead to more effective and usable systems. These approaches highlight focusing on user needs and promoting iterative and flexible development practices. Evaluation and testing of iterative agile development cycles is considered an important part of the agile methodology and iterative processes for system design and re-design. However, the issue of how to effectively integrate usability testing methods into rapid and flexible agile design cycles has remained to be fully explored. In this paper we describe our application of an approach known as low-cost rapid usability testing as it has been applied within agile system development in healthcare. The advantages of the integrative approach are described, along with current methodological considerations.

  3. Construction cost estimation of spherical storage tanks: artificial neural networks and hybrid regression—GA algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arabzadeh, Vida; Niaki, S. T. A.; Arabzadeh, Vahid

    2017-10-01

    One of the most important processes in the early stages of construction projects is to estimate the cost involved. This process involves a wide range of uncertainties, which make it a challenging task. Because of unknown issues, using the experience of the experts or looking for similar cases are the conventional methods to deal with cost estimation. The current study presents data-driven methods for cost estimation based on the application of artificial neural network (ANN) and regression models. The learning algorithms of the ANN are the Levenberg-Marquardt and the Bayesian regulated. Moreover, regression models are hybridized with a genetic algorithm to obtain better estimates of the coefficients. The methods are applied in a real case, where the input parameters of the models are assigned based on the key issues involved in a spherical tank construction. The results reveal that while a high correlation between the estimated cost and the real cost exists; both ANNs could perform better than the hybridized regression models. In addition, the ANN with the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm (LMNN) obtains a better estimation than the ANN with the Bayesian-regulated learning algorithm (BRNN). The correlation between real data and estimated values is over 90%, while the mean square error is achieved around 0.4. The proposed LMNN model can be effective to reduce uncertainty and complexity in the early stages of the construction project.

  4. Prevalence-based, disease-specific estimate of the social cost of smoking in Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cher, Boon Piang; Chen, Cynthia; Yoong, Joanne

    2017-04-07

    To estimate the cost of smoking in Singapore in 2014 from the societal perspective. A prevalence-based, disease-specific approach was undertaken to estimate the smoking-attributable costs. These include direct and indirect costs of inpatient treatment, premature mortality, loss of productivity due to medical leaves and smoking breaks. In 2014, the social cost of smoking in Singapore was conservatively estimated to be at least US$479.8 million, ∼0.2% of the 2014 gross domestic product. Most of this cost was attributable to productivity losses (US$464.9 million) and largely concentrated in the male population (US$434.9 million). Direct healthcare costs amounted to US$14.9 million where ischaemic heart disease and lung cancer had the highest cost burden. The social cost of smoking is smaller in Singapore than in other Asian countries. However, there is still cause for concern. A recently observed increase in smoking prevalence, particularly among adolescent men, is likely to result in rising total cost. Most significantly, our results suggest that a large share of the overall cost burden lies outside the healthcare system or may not be highly salient to the relevant decision makers. This is partly because of the nature of such costs (indirect or intangible costs such as productivity losses are often not salient) or data limitations (a potentially significant fraction of direct healthcare expenditure may be in private primary care where costs are not systematically captured and reported). The case of Singapore thus illustrates that even in countries perceived as success stories, strong multisectoral anti-tobacco strategies and a supporting research agenda continue to be needed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  5. Cost optimal building performance requirements. Calculation methodology for reporting on national energy performance requirements on the basis of cost optimality within the framework of the EPBD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boermans, T.; Bettgenhaeuser, K.; Hermelink, A.; Schimschar, S. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-05-15

    On the European level, the principles for the requirements for the energy performance of buildings are set by the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). Dating from December 2002, the EPBD has set a common framework from which the individual Member States in the EU developed or adapted their individual national regulations. The EPBD in 2008 and 2009 underwent a recast procedure, with final political agreement having been reached in November 2009. The new Directive was then formally adopted on May 19, 2010. Among other clarifications and new provisions, the EPBD recast introduces a benchmarking mechanism for national energy performance requirements for the purpose of determining cost-optimal levels to be used by Member States for comparing and setting these requirements. The previous EPBD set out a general framework to assess the energy performance of buildings and required Member States to define maximum values for energy delivered to meet the energy demand associated with the standardised use of the building. However it did not contain requirements or guidance related to the ambition level of such requirements. As a consequence, building regulations in the various Member States have been developed by the use of different approaches (influenced by different building traditions, political processes and individual market conditions) and resulted in different ambition levels where in many cases cost optimality principles could justify higher ambitions. The EPBD recast now requests that Member States shall ensure that minimum energy performance requirements for buildings are set 'with a view to achieving cost-optimal levels'. The cost optimum level shall be calculated in accordance with a comparative methodology. The objective of this report is to contribute to the ongoing discussion in Europe around the details of such a methodology by describing possible details on how to calculate cost optimal levels and pointing towards important factors and

  6. Costing for the Future: Exploring Cost Estimation With Unmanned Autonomous Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    UMAS with the end user and the operating environment. Issues are current human capacity, cultural acceptance, ethical dilemmas , most of the...continued to struggle with management of cost and schedule causing programs to deliver products that are “good enough,” delayed months to years, or even...across products. In addition, every level introduces another layer of conservative management reserve which can result in an overestimate at the end

  7. The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankar Prinja

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. METHODS: We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. RESULTS: We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73 per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8% of the GDP for universalizing health care services. CONCLUSION: The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

  8. Country-Level Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds: Initial Estimates and the Need for Further Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Beth; Revill, Paul; Sculpher, Mark; Claxton, Karl

    2016-12-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis can guide policymakers in resource allocation decisions. It assesses whether the health gains offered by an intervention are large enough relative to any additional costs to warrant adoption. When there are constraints on the health care system's budget or ability to increase expenditures, additional costs imposed by interventions have an "opportunity cost" in terms of the health foregone because other interventions cannot be provided. Cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) are typically used to assess whether an intervention is worthwhile and should reflect health opportunity cost. Nevertheless, CETs used by some decision makers-such as the World Health Organization that suggested CETs of 1 to 3 times the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita-do not. To estimate CETs based on opportunity cost for a wide range of countries. We estimated CETs based on recent empirical estimates of opportunity cost (from the English National Health Service), estimates of the relationship between country GDP per capita and the value of a statistical life, and a series of explicit assumptions. CETs for Malawi (the country with the lowest income in the world), Cambodia (with borderline low/low-middle income), El Salvador (with borderline low-middle/upper-middle income), and Kazakhstan (with borderline high-middle/high income) were estimated to be $3 to $116 (1%-51% GDP per capita), $44 to $518 (4%-51%), $422 to $1967 (11%-51%), and $4485 to $8018 (32%-59%), respectively. To date, opportunity-cost-based CETs for low-/middle-income countries have not been available. Although uncertainty exists in the underlying assumptions, these estimates can provide a useful input to inform resource allocation decisions and suggest that routinely used CETs have been too high. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Costing support and cost control in manufacturing. A cost estimation tool applied in the sheet metal domain.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ten Brinke, E.

    2002-01-01

    In the product development cycle several engineering tasks like design, process planning and production planning have to be executed. The execution of these tasks mainly involves information processing and decision-making. Because costs is an important factor in manufacturing, adequate information

  10. Commercial Vessel Safety. Economic Costs. Appendix A. Estimation Procedures for Costs and Cost Impacts of Marine Safety Regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the contents thereof. Prepared for. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTAION UNITED STATES COAST GUARD Office...however, and there is a paucity of published cost data. The Maritime Administration, especially the Office of Ship Construction, has access to a large

  11. Estimating costs of care for meningitis infections in low- and middle-income countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portnoy, Allison; Jit, Mark; Lauer, Jeremy; Blommaert, Adriaan; Ozawa, Sachiko; Stack, Meghan; Murray, Jillian; Hutubessy, Raymond

    2015-05-07

    Meningitis infections are often associated with high mortality and risk of sequelae. The costs of treatment and care for meningitis are a great burden on health care systems, particularly in resource-limited settings. The objective of this study is to review data on the costs of care for meningitis in low- and middle-income countries, as well as to show how results could be extrapolated to countries without sound data. We conducted a systematic review of the literature from six databases to identify studies examining the cost of care in low- and middle-income countries for all age groups with suspected, probable, or confirmed meningitis. We extracted data on treatment costs and sequelae by infectious agent and/or pathogen, where possible. Using multiple regression analysis, a relationship between hospital costs and associated determinants was investigated in order to predict costs in countries with missing data. This relationship was used to predict treatment costs for all 144 low- and middle-income countries. The methodology of conducting a systematic review, extrapolating, and setting up a standard database can be used as a tool to inform cost-effectiveness analyses in situations where cost of care data are poor. Both acute and long-term costs of meningitis could be extrapolated to countries without reliable data. Although only bacterial causes of meningitis can be vaccine-preventable, a better understanding of the treatment costs for meningitis is crucial for low- and middle-income countries to assess the cost-effectiveness of proposed interventions in their country. This cost information will be important as inputs in future cost-effectiveness studies, particularly for vaccines. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. CONSOLIDATED COST ACCOUNTING AT MEAT AND FAT PRODUCTION: METHODOLOGY AND PRACTICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kushnir

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the article is to study and improve methods of consolidated cost accounting at meat and fat production to obtain detailed information about production costs and to find ways to reduce the cost of meat production. It is offered to account expenses at meat and fat department for individual production areas that will receive detailed information for the purposes of control, analysis, calculation and reporting. For expedient budgeting activities of each structural unit of meat and fat production and for needs to saving production is proposed to reflect the costs of each production plant to separate groups of analytical accounts. Key words: consolidated accounting, production costs of meat and fat production, cost accounting.

  13. Analysis of Transaction Costs in Logistics and the Methodologies for Their Information Reflection for Automotive Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Ol’ga Evgen’evna Kovrizhnykh; Polina Aleksandrovna Nechaeva

    2016-01-01

    Transaction costs emerge in different types of logistics activities and influence the material flow and the accompanying financial and information flows; due to this fact, the information support and assessment are important tasks for the enterprise. The paper analyzes transaction costs in logistics for automotive manufacturers; according to the analysis, the level of these costs in any functional area of “logistics supply” ranges from 1.5 to 20%. These are only the official figures of transa...

  14. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-02-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources.