WorldWideScience

Sample records for cost estimation methodology

  1. Cost estimating for CERCLA remedial alternatives a unit cost methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brettin, R.W.; Carr, D.J.; Janke, R.J.

    1995-06-01

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Guidance for Conducting Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies Under CERCLA, Interim Final, dated October 1988 (EPA 1988) requires a detailed analysis be conducted of the most promising remedial alternatives against several evaluation criteria, including cost. To complete the detailed analysis, order-of-magnitude cost estimates (having an accuracy of +50 percent to -30 percent) must be developed for each remedial alternative. This paper presents a methodology for developing cost estimates of remedial alternatives comprised of various technology and process options with a wide range of estimated contaminated media quantities. In addition, the cost estimating methodology provides flexibility for incorporating revisions to remedial alternatives and achieves the desired range of accuracy. It is important to note that the cost estimating methodology presented here was developed as a concurrent path to the development of contaminated media quantity estimates. This methodology can be initiated before contaminated media quantities are estimated. As a result, this methodology is useful in developing cost estimates for use in screening and evaluating remedial technologies and process options. However, remedial alternative cost estimates cannot be prepared without the contaminated media quantity estimates. In the conduct of the feasibility study for Operable Unit 5 at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP), fourteen remedial alternatives were retained for detailed analysis. Each remedial alternative was composed of combinations of remedial technologies and processes which were earlier determined to be best suited for addressing the media-specific contaminants found at the FEMP site, and achieving desired remedial action objectives

  2. [Methodologies for estimating the indirect costs of traffic accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carozzi, Soledad; Elorza, María Eugenia; Moscoso, Nebel Silvana; Ripari, Nadia Vanina

    2017-01-01

    Traffic accidents generate multiple costs to society, including those associated with the loss of productivity. However, there is no consensus about the most appropriate methodology for estimating those costs. The aim of this study was to review methods for estimating indirect costs applied in crash cost studies. A thematic review of the literature was carried out between 1995 and 2012 in PubMed with the terms cost of illness, indirect cost, road traffic injuries, productivity loss. For the assessment of costs we used the the human capital method, on the basis of the wage-income lost during the time of treatment and recovery of patients and caregivers. In the case of premature death or total disability, the discount rate was applied to obtain the present value of lost future earnings. The computed years arose by subtracting to life expectancy at birth the average age of those affected who are not incorporated into the economically active life. The interest in minimizing the problem is reflected in the evolution of the implemented methodologies. We expect that this review is useful to estimate efficiently the real indirect costs of traffic accidents.

  3. Methodology used in IRSN nuclear accident cost estimates in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences. (authors)

  4. Methodology applied by IRSN for nuclear accident cost estimations in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences

  5. Development of Cost Estimation Methodology of Decommissioning for PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Il; Yoo, Yeon Jae; Lim, Yong Kyu; Chang, Hyeon Sik; Song, Geun Ho

    2013-01-01

    The permanent closure of nuclear power plant should be conducted with the strict laws and the profound planning including the cost and schedule estimation because the plant is very contaminated with the radioactivity. In Korea, there are two types of the nuclear power plant. One is the pressurized light water reactor (PWR) and the other is the pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) called as CANDU reactor. Also, the 50% of the operating nuclear power plant in Korea is the PWRs which were originally designed by CE (Combustion Engineering). There have been experiences about the decommissioning of Westinghouse type PWR, but are few experiences on that of CE type PWR. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop the cost estimation methodology and evaluate technical level of decommissioning for the application to CE type PWR based on the system engineering technology. The aim of present study is to develop the cost estimation methodology of decommissioning for application to PWR. Through the study, the following conclusions are obtained: · Based on the system engineering, the decommissioning work can be classified as Set, Subset, Task, Subtask and Work cost units. · The Set and Task structure are grouped as 29 Sets and 15 Task s, respectively. · The final result shows the cost and project schedule for the project control and risk management. · The present results are preliminary and should be refined and improved based on the modeling and cost data reflecting available technology and current costs like labor and waste data

  6. Methodology for estimating reprocessing costs for nuclear fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, W.L.; Rainey, R.H.

    1980-02-01

    A technological and economic evaluation of reprocessing requirements for alternate fuel cycles requires a common assessment method and a common basis to which various cycles can be related. A methodology is described for the assessment of alternate fuel cycles utilizing a side-by-side comparison of functional flow diagrams of major areas of the reprocessing plant with corresponding diagrams of the well-developed Purex process as installed in the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel Plant (BNFP). The BNFP treats 1500 metric tons of uranium per year (MTU/yr). Complexity and capacity factors are determined for adjusting the estimated facility and equipment costs of BNFP to determine the corresponding costs for the alternate fuel cycle. Costs of capacities other than the reference 1500 MT of heavy metal per year are estimated by the use of scaling factors. Unit costs of reprocessed fuel are calculated using a discounted cash flow analysis for three economic bases to show the effect of low-risk, typical, and high-risk financing methods

  7. Systematic methodology for estimating direct capital costs for blanket tritium processing systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finn, P.A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology developed for estimating the relative capital costs of blanket processing systems. The capital costs of the nine blanket concepts selected in the Blanket Comparison and Selection Study are presented and compared

  8. Integrated cost estimation methodology to support high-performance building design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaidya, Prasad; Greden, Lara; Eijadi, David; McDougall, Tom [The Weidt Group, Minnetonka (United States); Cole, Ray [Axiom Engineers, Monterey (United States)

    2007-07-01

    Design teams evaluating the performance of energy conservation measures (ECMs) calculate energy savings rigorously with established modelling protocols, accounting for the interaction between various measures. However, incremental cost calculations do not have a similar rigor. Often there is no recognition of cost reductions with integrated design, nor is there assessment of cost interactions amongst measures. This lack of rigor feeds the notion that high-performance buildings cost more, creating a barrier for design teams pursuing aggressive high-performance outcomes. This study proposes an alternative integrated methodology to arrive at a lower perceived incremental cost for improved energy performance. The methodology is based on the use of energy simulations as means towards integrated design and cost estimation. Various points along the spectrum of integration are identified and characterized by the amount of design effort invested, the scheduling of effort, and relative energy performance of the resultant design. It includes a study of the interactions between building system parameters as they relate to capital costs. Several cost interactions amongst energy measures are found to be significant.The value of this approach is demonstrated with alternatives in a case study that shows the differences between perceived costs for energy measures along various points on the integration spectrum. These alternatives show design tradeoffs and identify how decisions would have been different with a standard costing approach. Areas of further research to make the methodology more robust are identified. Policy measures to encourage the integrated approach and reduce the barriers towards improved energy performance are discussed.

  9. A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianzhong Jay; Datta, Koushik; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

  10. ETE-EVAL: a methodology for D and D cost estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decobert, G.; Robic, S.; Vanel, V.

    2008-01-01

    In compliance with Article 20 of the sustainable radioactive materials and waste management act dated 28 June 2006, the CEA and AREVA are required every three years to revise the cost of decommissioning their facilities and to provide the necessary assets by constituting a dedicated fund. For the 2007 revision the CEA used ETE-EVAL V5. Similarly, AREVA reevaluated the cost of decontaminating and dismantling its facilities at La Hague, as the previous estimate in 2004 did not take into account the complete cleanup of all the structural work. ETE-EVAL V5 is a computer application designed to estimate the cost of decontamination and dismantling of basic nuclear installations (INB). It has been qualified by Bureau Veritas and audited. ETE-EVAL V5 has become the official software for cost assessment of CEA civilian and AREVA decommissioning projects. It has been used by the DPAD (Decontamination and Dismantling Projects Department) cost assessment group to estimate the cost of decommissioning some thirty facilities (cost update on completion for the dedicated fund for dismantling civilian CEA facilities) and by AREVA to estimate the cost of decommissioning its fuel cycle back-end facilities. Some necessary modifications are now being implemented to allow for the specific aspects of fuel cycle front-end facilities. The computational method is based on physical, radiological and waste inventories following a particular methodology, and on interviews with operating personnel to compile ratios and financial data (operating cost, etc.) and enter them in a database called GREEN (from the French acronym for Management Ratios for Assessment of Nuclear Facilities). ETE-EVAL V5 comprises the cost assessment module and GREEN database. It has been enriched with the lessons learned from experience, and can be adapted as necessary to meet installation-specific requirements. The cost assessment module allows the user to estimate decommissioning costs once the inventory has been

  11. Methodology to estimate the cost of the severe accidents risk / maximum benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza, G.; Flores, R. M.; Vega, E.

    2016-09-01

    For programs and activities to manage aging effects, any changes to plant operations, inspections, maintenance activities, systems and administrative control procedures during the renewal period should be characterized, designed to manage the effects of aging as required by 10 Cfr Part 54 that could impact the environment. Environmental impacts significantly different from those described in the final environmental statement for the current operating license should be described in detail. When complying with the requirements of a license renewal application, the Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis is contained in a supplement to the environmental report of the plant that meets the requirements of 10 Cfr Part 51. In this paper, the methodology for estimating the cost of severe accidents risk is established and discussed, which is then used to identify and select the alternatives for severe accident mitigation, which are analyzed to estimate the maximum benefit that an alternative could achieve if this eliminate all risk. Using the regulatory analysis techniques of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates the cost of severe accidents risk. The ultimate goal of implementing the methodology is to identify candidates for SAMA that have the potential to reduce the severe accidents risk and determine if the implementation of each candidate is cost-effective. (Author)

  12. Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukey, M.E.; Prasad, C.; Toothman, D.A.; Kaplan, N.

    1999-07-01

    Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

  13. Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukey, M E; Prasad, C; Toothman, D A; Kaplan, N

    1999-07-01

    Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

  14. Estimating the cost of delaying a nuclear power plant: methodology and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, L.J.; Tepel, R.C.; Van Dyke, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of an actual 24-month nuclear power plant licensing delay under alternate assumptions about regulatory practice, sources of replacement power, and the cost of the plant. The analysis focuses on both the delay period and periods subsequent to the delay. The methodology utilized to simulate the impacts involved the recursive interaction of a generation-costing program to estimate fuel-replacement costs and a financial regulatory model to concomitantly determine the impact on the utility, its ratepayers, and security issues. The results indicate that a licensing delay has an adverse impact on the utility's internal generation of funds and financial indicators used to evaluate financial soundness. The direction of impact on electricity rates is contingent on the source of fuel used for replacement power. 5 references, 5 tables

  15. A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, Veronica L.; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities

  16. Estimation of the laser cutting operating cost by support vector regression methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jović, Srđan; Radović, Aleksandar; Šarkoćević, Živče; Petković, Dalibor; Alizamir, Meysam

    2016-09-01

    Laser cutting is a popular manufacturing process utilized to cut various types of materials economically. The operating cost is affected by laser power, cutting speed, assist gas pressure, nozzle diameter and focus point position as well as the workpiece material. In this article, the process factors investigated were: laser power, cutting speed, air pressure and focal point position. The aim of this work is to relate the operating cost to the process parameters mentioned above. CO2 laser cutting of stainless steel of medical grade AISI316L has been investigated. The main goal was to analyze the operating cost through the laser power, cutting speed, air pressure, focal point position and material thickness. Since the laser operating cost is a complex, non-linear task, soft computing optimization algorithms can be used. Intelligent soft computing scheme support vector regression (SVR) was implemented. The performance of the proposed estimator was confirmed with the simulation results. The SVR results are then compared with artificial neural network and genetic programing. According to the results, a greater improvement in estimation accuracy can be achieved through the SVR compared to other soft computing methodologies. The new optimization methods benefit from the soft computing capabilities of global optimization and multiobjective optimization rather than choosing a starting point by trial and error and combining multiple criteria into a single criterion.

  17. Approaches to estimating decommissioning costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.I.

    1990-07-01

    The chronological development of methodology for estimating the cost of nuclear reactor power station decommissioning is traced from the mid-1970s through 1990. Three techniques for developing decommissioning cost estimates are described. The two viable techniques are compared by examining estimates developed for the same nuclear power station using both methods. The comparison shows that the differences between the estimates are due largely to differing assumptions regarding the size of the utility and operating contractor overhead staffs. It is concluded that the two methods provide bounding estimates on a range of manageable costs, and provide reasonable bases for the utility rate adjustments necessary to pay for future decommissioning costs. 6 refs

  18. Cost Methodology for Biomass Feedstocks: Herbaceous Crops and Agricultural Residues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turhollow Jr, Anthony F [ORNL; Webb, Erin [ORNL; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine [ORNL

    2009-12-01

    This report describes a set of procedures and assumptions used to estimate production and logistics costs of bioenergy feedstocks from herbaceous crops and agricultural residues. The engineering-economic analysis discussed here is based on methodologies developed by the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers (ASABE) and the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA). An engineering-economic analysis approach was chosen due to lack of historical cost data for bioenergy feedstocks. Instead, costs are calculated using assumptions for equipment performance, input prices, and yield data derived from equipment manufacturers, research literature, and/or standards. Cost estimates account for fixed and variable costs. Several examples of this costing methodology used to estimate feedstock logistics costs are included at the end of this report.

  19. CONTAMINATED SOIL VOLUME ESTIMATE TRACKING METHODOLOGY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durham, L.A.; Johnson, R.L.; Rieman, C.; Kenna, T.; Pilon, R.

    2003-01-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is conducting a cleanup of radiologically contaminated properties under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). The largest cost element for most of the FUSRAP sites is the transportation and disposal of contaminated soil. Project managers and engineers need an estimate of the volume of contaminated soil to determine project costs and schedule. Once excavation activities begin and additional remedial action data are collected, the actual quantity of contaminated soil often deviates from the original estimate, resulting in cost and schedule impacts to the project. The project costs and schedule need to be frequently updated by tracking the actual quantities of excavated soil and contaminated soil remaining during the life of a remedial action project. A soil volume estimate tracking methodology was developed to provide a mechanism for project managers and engineers to create better project controls of costs and schedule. For the FUSRAP Linde site, an estimate of the initial volume of in situ soil above the specified cleanup guidelines was calculated on the basis of discrete soil sample data and other relevant data using indicator geostatistical techniques combined with Bayesian analysis. During the remedial action, updated volume estimates of remaining in situ soils requiring excavation were calculated on a periodic basis. In addition to taking into account the volume of soil that had been excavated, the updated volume estimates incorporated both new gamma walkover surveys and discrete sample data collected as part of the remedial action. A civil survey company provided periodic estimates of actual in situ excavated soil volumes. By using the results from the civil survey of actual in situ volumes excavated and the updated estimate of the remaining volume of contaminated soil requiring excavation, the USACE Buffalo District was able to forecast and update project costs and schedule. The soil volume

  20. Well-founded cost estimation validated by experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaGuardia, T.S.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Reliable cost estimating is one of the most important elements of decommissioning planning. Alternative technologies may be evaluated and compared based on their efficiency and effectiveness, and measured against a baseline cost as to the feasibility and benefits derived from the technology. When the plan is complete, those cost considerations ensure that it is economically sound and practical for funding. Estimates of decommissioning costs have been performed and published by many organizations for many different applications. The results often vary because of differences in the work scope. Labor force cost, monetary considerations, oversight costs, the specific contaminated materials involved, the waste stream and peripheral costs associated with that type of waste, or applicable environmental compliance requirements. Many of these differences are unavoidable since a reasonable degree of reliability and accuracy can only be achieved by developing decommissioning cost estimates on a case-by-case site-specific basis. This paper describes the estimating methodology and process applied to develop decommissioning cost estimates. A major effort has been made to standardize these methodologies, and to understand the assumptions and bases that drive the costs. However, estimates are only as accurate as the information available from which to derive the costs. This information includes the assumptions of scope of the work, labour cost inputs, inflationary effects, and financial analyses that project these costs to year of expenditure. Attempts at comparison of estimates for two facilities of similar design and size must clearly identify the assumptions used in developing the estimate, and comparison of actual costs versus estimated costs must reflect these same assumptions. For the nuclear industry to grow, decommissioning estimating tools must improve to keep pace with changing technology, regulations and stakeholder issues. The decommissioning industry needs

  1. How accurate are forecasts of costs of energy? A methodological contribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddons, Craig; Allan, Grant; McIntyre, Stuart

    2015-01-01

    Forecasts of the cost of energy are typically presented as point estimates; however forecasts are seldom accurate, which makes it important to understand the uncertainty around these point estimates. The scale of the differences between forecasts and outturns (i.e. contemporary estimates) of costs may have important implications for government decisions on the appropriate form (and level) of support, modelling energy scenarios or industry investment appraisal. This paper proposes a methodology to assess the accuracy of cost forecasts. We apply this to levelised costs of energy for different generation technologies due to the availability of comparable forecasts and contemporary estimates, however the same methodology could be applied to the components of levelised costs, such as capital costs. The estimated “forecast errors” capture the accuracy of previous forecasts and can provide objective bounds to the range around current forecasts for such costs. The results from applying this method are illustrated using publicly available data for on- and off-shore wind, Nuclear and CCGT technologies, revealing the possible scale of “forecast errors” for these technologies. - Highlights: • A methodology to assess the accuracy of forecasts of costs of energy is outlined. • Method applied to illustrative data for four electricity generation technologies. • Results give an objective basis for sensitivity analysis around point estimates.

  2. Top Level Space Cost Methodology (TLSCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-12-02

    Software 7 6. ACEIT . 7 C. Ground Rules and Assumptions 7 D. Typical Life Cycle Cost Distribution 7 E. Methodologies 7 1. Cost/budget Threshold 9 2. Analogy...which is based on real-time Air Force and space programs. Ref.(25:2- 8, 2-9) 6. ACEIT : Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools( ACEIT ), Tecolote...Research, Inc. There is a way to use the ACEIT cost program to get a print-out of an expanded WBS. Therefore, find someone that has ACEIT experience and

  3. Estimating pressurized water reactor decommissioning costs: A user's manual for the PWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bierschbach, M.C.; Mencinsky, G.J.

    1993-10-01

    With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the US Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user's manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personnel computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning PWR plant stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning

  4. Development of regional stump-to-mill logging cost estimators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris B. LeDoux; John E. Baumgras

    1989-01-01

    Planning logging operations requires estimating the logging costs for the sale or tract being harvested. Decisions need to be made on equipment selection and its application to terrain. In this paper a methodology is described that has been developed and implemented to solve the problem of accurately estimating logging costs by region. The methodology blends field time...

  5. 78 FR 61227 - Public Assistance Cost Estimating Format for Large Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-03

    ... equipment. The base cost (construction costs) plus nonconstruction costs equal the total eligible cost... included the estimated base cost plus the estimated nonconstruction costs. Under the traditional method... total cost of completing the project. This ``forward- pricing'' methodology provides an estimate of the...

  6. Compilation and review of methodologies for estimating the comparative electric power system costs for renewable energy systems. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    This Working Material provides a review of methodologies for estimating the costs of renewable energy systems and the state of art knowledge on stochastic features and economic evaluation methodologies of renewable energy systems for electricity generation in a grid integrated system. It is expected that this material facilitates the wider access by interested persons to sources for relevant comparative assessment activities which are progressing in the IAEA. Refs, figs, tabs

  7. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  8. Cost estimation tools in Germany and the UK. Comparison of cost estimates and actual costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfeifer, W.; Gordelier, S.; Drake, V.

    2005-01-01

    decommission the Joint European Torus (JET) fusion facility at Culham when it has reached the end of its useful life. Total costs for this programme (including final disposal of arising wastes) are estimated at euros 14 B, almost all of which will be funded by the UK taxpayer. UKAEA has developed a systematic approach to estimating the costs of individual projects (PRICE) which it has now been employed for estimates to a total value of euros 1.5 B. Costs from real projects are collected so that the system can be progressively improved by learning from real data. Benchmarking exercises with two other cost estimating systems have also been conducted. Both the German and UK experience show that: 1. Attention to considerable detail in the scope of a decommissioning task is required if a realistic cost estimate is to be produced. 2. Despite attention to such details, decommissioning projects regularly produce the unexpected. Recognition of such changes is essential in collecting data relevant to future cost estimates. Flexibility in project management arrangements is necessary to accommodate these unexpected changes. 3. Accurate cost estimation is still difficult to achieve. There is considerable scope for international collaboration in building up a database of real implementation costs and in applying cost estimation methodologies. (authors)

  9. Qualitative and quantitative cost estimation : a methodology analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aram, S.; Eastman, C.; Beetz, J.; Issa, R.; Flood, I.

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports on the first part of ongoing research with the goal of designing a framework and a knowledge-based system for 3D parametric model-based quantity take-off and cost estimation in the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry. The authors have studied and analyzed

  10. COST ESTIMATING RELATIONSHIPS IN ONSHORE DRILLING PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo de Melo e Silva Accioly

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimating relationships (CERs are very important tools in the planning phases of an upstream project. CERs are, in general, multiple regression models developed to estimate the cost of a particular item or scope of a project. They are based in historical data that should pass through a normalization process before fitting a model. In the early phases they are the primary tool for cost estimating. In later phases they are usually used as an estimation validation tool and sometimes for benchmarking purposes. As in any other modeling methodology there are number of important steps to build a model. In this paper the process of building a CER to estimate drilling cost of onshore wells will be addressed.

  11. Methodology for cost estimate in projects for nuclear power plants decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salij, L.M.

    2008-01-01

    The conceptual approaches to cost estimating of nuclear power plants units decommissioning projects were determined. The international experience and national legislative and regulatory basis were analyzed. The possible decommissioning project cost classification was given. It was shown the role of project costs of nuclear power plant units decommissioning as the most important criterion for the main project decisions. The technical and economic estimation of deductions to common-branch fund of decommissioning projects financing was substantiated

  12. Stochastic cost estimating in repository life-cycle cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzemos, S.; Dippold, D.

    1986-01-01

    The conceptual development, the design, and the final construction and operation of a nuclear repository span many decades. Given this lengthy time frame, it is quite challenging to obtain a good approximation of the repository life-cycle cost. One can deal with this challenge by using an analytic method, the method of moments, to explicitly assess the uncertainty of the estimate. A series expansion is used to approximate the uncertainty distribution of the cost estimate. In this paper, the moment methodology is derived and is illustrated through a numerical example. The range of validity of the approximation is discussed. The method of moments is compared to the traditional stochastic cost estimating methods and found to provide more and better information on cost uncertainty. The tow methods converge to identical results as the number of convolved variables increases and approaches the range where the central limit theorem is valid

  13. Computerized cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base for fusion devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, W.R.; Rothe, K.E.

    1985-01-01

    An automated approach to performing and cataloging cost estimates has been developed at the Fusion Engineering Design Center (FEDC), wherein the cost estimate record is stored in the LOTUS 1-2-3 spreadsheet on an IBM personal computer. The cost estimation spreadsheet is based on the cost coefficient/cost algorithm approach and incorporates a detailed generic code of cost accounts for both tokamak and tandem mirror devices. Component design parameters (weight, surface area, etc.) and cost factors are input, and direct and indirect costs are calculated. The cost data base file derived from actual cost experience within the fusion community and refined to be compatible with the spreadsheet costing approach is a catalog of cost coefficients, algorithms, and component costs arranged into data modules corresponding to specific components and/or subsystems. Each data module contains engineering, equipment, and installation labor cost data for different configurations and types of the specific component or subsystem. This paper describes the assumptions, definitions, methodology, and architecture incorporated in the development of the cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base, along with the type of input required and the output format

  14. An improved COCOMO software cost estimation model | Duke ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we discuss the methodologies adopted previously in software cost estimation using the COnstructive COst MOdels (COCOMOs). From our analysis, COCOMOs produce very high software development efforts, which eventually produce high software development costs. Consequently, we propose its extension, ...

  15. Using Intelligent Techniques in Construction Project Cost Estimation: 10-Year Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelrahman Osman Elfaki

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation is the most important preliminary process in any construction project. Therefore, construction cost estimation has the lion’s share of the research effort in construction management. In this paper, we have analysed and studied proposals for construction cost estimation for the last 10 years. To implement this survey, we have proposed and applied a methodology that consists of two parts. The first part concerns data collection, for which we have chosen special journals as sources for the surveyed proposals. The second part concerns the analysis of the proposals. To analyse each proposal, the following four questions have been set. Which intelligent technique is used? How have data been collected? How are the results validated? And which construction cost estimation factors have been used? From the results of this survey, two main contributions have been produced. The first contribution is the defining of the research gap in this area, which has not been fully covered by previous proposals of construction cost estimation. The second contribution of this survey is the proposal and highlighting of future directions for forthcoming proposals, aimed ultimately at finding the optimal construction cost estimation. Moreover, we consider the second part of our methodology as one of our contributions in this paper. This methodology has been proposed as a standard benchmark for construction cost estimation proposals.

  16. Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs. A user's manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software: Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bierschbach, M.C.

    1994-12-01

    With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the U.S. Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user's manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning BWR power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning

  17. Cost Estimating Handbook for Environmental Restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and cost estimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimated cost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for cost estimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist cost estimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals

  18. Decommissioning Cost Estimating -The ''Price'' Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manning, R.; Gilmour, J.

    2002-01-01

    Over the past 9 years UKAEA has developed a formalized approach to decommissioning cost estimating. The estimating methodology and computer-based application are known collectively as the PRICE system. At the heart of the system is a database (the knowledge base) which holds resource demand data on a comprehensive range of decommissioning activities. This data is used in conjunction with project specific information (the quantities of specific components) to produce decommissioning cost estimates. PRICE is a dynamic cost-estimating tool, which can satisfy both strategic planning and project management needs. With a relatively limited analysis a basic PRICE estimate can be produced and used for the purposes of strategic planning. This same estimate can be enhanced and improved, primarily by the improvement of detail, to support sanction expenditure proposals, and also as a tender assessment and project management tool. The paper will: describe the principles of the PRICE estimating system; report on the experiences of applying the system to a wide range of projects from contaminated car parks to nuclear reactors; provide information on the performance of the system in relation to historic estimates, tender bids, and outturn costs

  19. BIM – New rules of measurement ontology for construction cost estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F.H. Abanda

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available For generations, the process of cost estimation has been manual, time-consuming and error-prone. Emerging Building Information Modelling (BIM can exploit standard measurement methods to automate cost estimation process and improve inaccuracies. Structuring standard measurement methods in an ontologically and machine readable format for a BIM software can greatly facilitate the process of improving inaccuracies in cost estimation. This study explores the development of an ontology based on New Rules of Measurement (NRM for cost estimation during the tendering stages. The methodology adopted is methontology, one of the most widely used ontology engineering methodologies. To ensure the ontology is fit for purpose, cost estimation experts are employed to check the semantics, descriptive logic-based reasoners are used to syntactically check the ontology and a leading 4D BIM modelling software is used on a case study building to test/validate the proposed ontology.

  20. Validation of generic cost estimates for construction-related activities at nuclear power plants: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simion, G.; Sciacca, F.; Claiborne, E.; Watlington, B.; Riordan, B.; McLaughlin, M.

    1988-05-01

    This report represents a validation study of the cost methodologies and quantitative factors derived in Labor Productivity Adjustment Factors and Generic Methodology for Estimating the Labor Cost Associated with the Removal of Hardware, Materials, and Structures From Nuclear Power Plants. This cost methodology was developed to support NRC analysts in determining generic estimates of removal, installation, and total labor costs for construction-related activities at nuclear generating stations. In addition to the validation discussion, this report reviews the generic cost analysis methodology employed. It also discusses each of the individual cost factors used in estimating the costs of physical modifications at nuclear power plants. The generic estimating approach presented uses the /open quotes/greenfield/close quotes/ or new plant construction installation costs compiled in the Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB) as a baseline. These baseline costs are then adjusted to account for labor productivity, radiation fields, learning curve effects, and impacts on ancillary systems or components. For comparisons of estimated vs actual labor costs, approximately four dozen actual cost data points (as reported by 14 nuclear utilities) were obtained. Detailed background information was collected on each individual data point to give the best understanding possible so that the labor productivity factors, removal factors, etc., could judiciously be chosen. This study concludes that cost estimates that are typically within 40% of the actual values can be generated by prudently using the methodologies and cost factors investigated herein

  1. [Activity-based costing methodology to manage resources in intensive care units].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvear V, Sandra; Canteros G, Jorge; Jara M, Juan; Rodríguez C, Patricia

    2013-11-01

    An accurate estimation of resources use by individual patients is crucial in hospital management. To measure financial costs of health care actions in intensive care units of two public regional hospitals in Chile. Prospective follow up of 716 patients admitted to two intensive care units during 2011. The financial costs of health care activities was calculated using the Activity-Based Costing methodology. The main activities recorded were procedures and treatments, monitoring, response to patient needs, patient maintenance and coordination. Activity-Based Costs, including human resources and assorted indirect costs correspond to 81 to 88% of costs per disease in one hospital and 69 to 80% in the other. The costs associated to procedures and treatments are the most significant and are approximately $100,000 (Chilean pesos) per day of hospitalization. The second most significant cost corresponds to coordination activities, which fluctuates between $86,000 and 122,000 (Chilean pesos). There are significant differences in resources use between the two hospitals studied. Therefore cost estimation methodologies should be incorporated in the management of these clinical services.

  2. A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castagne, S.; Curran, R.; Rothwell, A.; Price, M.; Benard, E.; Raghunathan, S.

    2008-01-01

    A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost

  3. The cost of vision loss in Canada. 1. Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Keith D; Cruess, Alan F; Bellan, Lorne; Mitchell, Scott; Pezzullo, M Lynne

    2011-08-01

    This paper outlines the methodology used to estimate the cost of vision loss in Canada. The results of this study will be presented in a second paper. The cost of vision loss (VL) in Canada was estimated using a prevalence-based approach. This was done by estimating the number of people with VL in a base period (2007) and the costs associated with treating them. The cost estimates included direct health system expenditures on eye conditions that cause VL, as well as other indirect financial costs such as productivity losses. Estimates were also made of the value of the loss of healthy life, measured in Disability Adjusted Life Years or DALY's. To estimate the number of cases of VL in the population, epidemiological data on prevalence rates were applied to population data. The number of cases of VL was stratified by gender, age, ethnicity, severity and cause. The following sources were used for estimating prevalence: Population-based eye studies; Canadian Surveys; Canadian journal articles and research studies; and International Population Based Eye Studies. Direct health costs were obtained primarily from Health Canada and Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) sources, while costs associated with productivity losses were based on employment information compiled by Statistics Canada and on economic theory of productivity loss. Costs related to vision rehabilitation (VR) were obtained from Canadian VR organizations. This study shows that it is possible to estimate the costs for VL for a country in the absence of ongoing local epidemiological studies. Copyright © 2011 Canadian Ophthalmological Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Methodology of Day-To-Day Ship Costs Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milojka Počuča

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a methodology of assessing the day-to-day fixed costs of maritime cargo ships. The authoress refersthe reader to factors that affect the amount affixed daily costsand the day-to-day voyage costs of ships. In the last chapter thepaper presents an estimation of the average daily fixed costsand day-to-day voyage costs of ships per type and size for theyear 2003. Besides particular explanations, the reader is refe"ed to data bases that authentically impart data on the structureof maritime fleets and their technical characteristics, aswell as databases on prices and costs in maritime transport.

  5. Estimating the cost of epilepsy in Europe: a review with economic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugliatti, Maura; Beghi, Ettore; Forsgren, Lars; Ekman, Mattias; Sobocki, Patrik

    2007-12-01

    Based on available epidemiologic, health economic, and international population statistics literature, the cost of epilepsy in Europe was estimated. Europe was defined as the 25 European Union member countries, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland. Guidelines for epidemiological studies on epilepsy were used for a case definition. A bottom-up prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach, the societal perspective for including the cost items, and the human capital approach as valuation principle for indirect costs were used. The cost estimates were based on selected studies with common methodology and valuation principles. The estimated prevalence of epilepsy in Europe in 2004 was 4.3-7.8 per 1,000. The estimated total cost of the disease in Europe was euro15.5 billion in 2004, indirect cost being the single most dominant cost category (euro8.6 billion). Direct health care costs were euro2.8 billion, outpatient care comprising the largest part (euro1.3 billion). Direct nonmedical cost was euro4.2 billion. That of antiepileptic drugs was euro400 million. The total cost per case was euro2,000-11,500 and the estimated cost per European inhabitant was euro33. Epilepsy is a relevant socioeconomic burden at individual, family, health services, and societal level in Europe. The greater proportion of such burden is outside the formal health care sector, antiepileptic drugs representing a smaller proportion. Lack of economic data from several European countries and other methodological limitations make this report an initial estimate of the cost of epilepsy in Europe. Prospective incidence cost-of-illness studies from well-defined populations and common methodology are encouraged.

  6. Computerized cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base for fusion devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, W.R.; Rothe, K.E.

    1985-01-01

    Component design parameters (weight, surface area, etc.) and cost factors are input and direct and indirect costs are calculated. The cost data base file derived from actual cost experience within the fusion community and refined to be compatible with the spreadsheet costing approach is a catalog of cost coefficients, algorithms, and component costs arranged into data modules corresponding to specific components and/or subsystems. Each data module contains engineering, equipment, and installation labor cost data for different configurations and types of the specific component or subsystem. This paper describes the assumptions, definitions, methodology, and architecture incorporated in the development of the cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base, along with the type of input required and the output format

  7. Counting the cost: estimating the economic benefit of pedophile treatment programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, M; Donato, R

    2001-04-01

    The principal objective of this paper is to identify the economic costs and benefits of pedophile treatment programs incorporating both the tangible and intangible cost of sexual abuse to victims. Cost estimates of cognitive behavioral therapy programs in Australian prisons are compared against the tangible and intangible costs to victims of being sexually abused. Estimates are prepared that take into account a number of problematic issues. These include the range of possible recidivism rates for treatment programs; the uncertainty surrounding the number of child sexual molestation offences committed by recidivists; and the methodological problems associated with estimating the intangible costs of sexual abuse on victims. Despite the variation in parameter estimates that impact on the cost-benefit analysis of pedophile treatment programs, it is found that potential range of economic costs from child sexual abuse are substantial and the economic benefits to be derived from appropriate and effective treatment programs are high. Based on a reasonable set of parameter estimates, in-prison, cognitive therapy treatment programs for pedophiles are likely to be of net benefit to society. Despite this, a critical area of future research must include further methodological developments in estimating the quantitative impact of child sexual abuse in the community.

  8. Cost analysis methodology of spent fuel storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The report deals with the cost analysis of interim spent fuel storage; however, it is not intended either to give a detailed cost analysis or to compare the costs of the different options. This report provides a methodology for calculating the costs of different options for interim storage of the spent fuel produced in the reactor cores. Different technical features and storage options (dry and wet, away from reactor and at reactor) are considered and the factors affecting all options defined. The major cost categories are analysed. Then the net present value of each option is calculated and the levelized cost determined. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted taking into account the uncertainty in the different cost estimates. Examples of current storage practices in some countries are included in the Appendices, with description of the most relevant technical and economic aspects. 16 figs, 14 tabs

  9. Costs and benefits of sulphur oxide control: a methodological study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-01-01

    The objective is to present for the first time a methodology for estimating the costs and benefits of SO/sub x/ control strategies as an aid o policy formulation which could create the basis for further action in member countries. To illustrate the methodology, different control scenarios for Western Europe are developed and analyzed using the cost-benefit approach, and some preliminary conclusions are drawn. The next step assesses the impact of the emissions on ambient air quality, calculated with the aid of long-range and urban air quality models. Finally, the impact of the calculated concentrations of SO/sub x/ in the different scenarios on a number of environmental and human assets - materials, agricultural crops, health, and aquatic ecosystems - are estimated in order to have a measure of the benefits of control.

  10. Cost estimation for decommissioning: a review of current practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Sullivan, P.; Pescatore, C.

    2009-01-01

    boundary conditions; cost estimation methodologies; and experience gained during the process. Twelve countries provided responses and participated in the analysis: Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. The final report documenting the study is nearing publication. Its main findings are reported in this article. There is no single cost assessment methodology that applies equally at all stages of a decommissioning project. This means that different cost assessment methodologies may need to be used as the project advances. Such methodologies should be continuously updated using cost data from actual decommissioning projects, thus improving the cost assessment, providing better control of uncertainties and contingencies for each major cost category, and facilitating the preparation of an annualized schedule of expenditures for each facility. In the future, risk management may benefit from an approach that uses a deterministic calculation (base case) that feeds into a probabilistic assessment of future costs. Such approaches may be used to gain a better understanding of potential cost and programme requirements. Attention should also be given early on to socio-economic factors, including impacts caused by loss of employment, to help in building public support and acceptance of a decommissioning project. Early meetings with stakeholders may be used to gain agreement on project boundary conditions, strategy, release criteria and measurement protocols, and waste containers used. In view of the very significant impacts that changes and increases in scope may have on cost estimates, it is important that these be identified and controlled immediately, and incorporated into the estimate so that the estimate may continue to provide a viable benchmarking resource. Characterisation is acknowledged to be an important part of cost estimating accuracy, as it affects system and structure

  11. Comparing Methods for Estimating Direct Costs of Adverse Drug Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyllensten, Hanna; Jönsson, Anna K; Hakkarainen, Katja M; Svensson, Staffan; Hägg, Staffan; Rehnberg, Clas

    2017-12-01

    To estimate how direct health care costs resulting from adverse drug events (ADEs) and cost distribution are affected by methodological decisions regarding identification of ADEs, assigning relevant resource use to ADEs, and estimating costs for the assigned resources. ADEs were identified from medical records and diagnostic codes for a random sample of 4970 Swedish adults during a 3-month study period in 2008 and were assessed for causality. Results were compared for five cost evaluation methods, including different methods for identifying ADEs, assigning resource use to ADEs, and for estimating costs for the assigned resources (resource use method, proportion of registered cost method, unit cost method, diagnostic code method, and main diagnosis method). Different levels of causality for ADEs and ADEs' contribution to health care resource use were considered. Using the five methods, the maximum estimated overall direct health care costs resulting from ADEs ranged from Sk10,000 (Sk = Swedish krona; ~€1,500 in 2016 values) using the diagnostic code method to more than Sk3,000,000 (~€414,000) using the unit cost method in our study population. The most conservative definitions for ADEs' contribution to health care resource use and the causality of ADEs resulted in average costs per patient ranging from Sk0 using the diagnostic code method to Sk4066 (~€500) using the unit cost method. The estimated costs resulting from ADEs varied considerably depending on the methodological choices. The results indicate that costs for ADEs need to be identified through medical record review and by using detailed unit cost data. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimating and understanding DOE waste management costs'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, J.S.; Sherick, M.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines costs associated with cleaning up the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) nuclear facilities, with particular emphasis on the waste management program. Life-cycle waste management costs have been compiled and reported in the DOE Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR). Waste management costs are a critical issue for DOE because of the current budget constraints. The DOE sites are struggling to accomplish their environmental management objectives given funding scenarios that are well below anticipated waste management costs. Through the BEMR process, DOE has compiled complex-wide cleanup cost estimates and has begun analysis of these costs with respect to alternative waste management scenarios and policy strategies. From this analysis, DOE is attempting to identify the major cost drivers and prioritize environmental management activities to achieve maximum utilization of existing funding. This paper provides an overview of the methodology DOE has used to estimate and analyze some waste management costs, including the key data requirements and uncertainties

  13. Fuel Cell System for Transportation -- 2005 Cost Estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wheeler, D.

    2006-10-01

    Independent review report of the methodology used by TIAX to estimate the cost of producing PEM fuel cells using 2005 cell stack technology. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program Manager asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to commission an independent review of the 2005 TIAX cost analysis for fuel cell production. The NREL Systems Integrator is responsible for conducting independent reviews of progress toward meeting the DOE Hydrogen Program (the Program) technical targets. An important technical target of the Program is the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell cost in terms of dollars per kilowatt ($/kW). The Program's Multi-Year Program Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan established $125/kW as the 2005 technical target. Over the last several years, the Program has contracted with TIAX, LLC (TIAX) to produce estimates of the high volume cost of PEM fuel cell production for transportation use. Since no manufacturer is yet producing PEM fuel cells in the quantities needed for an initial hydrogen-based transportation economy, these estimates are necessary for DOE to gauge progress toward meeting its targets. For a PEM fuel cell system configuration developed by Argonne National Laboratory, TIAX estimated the total cost to be $108/kW, based on assumptions of 500,000 units per year produced with 2005 cell stack technology, vertical integration of cell stack manufacturing, and balance-of-plant (BOP) components purchased from a supplier network. Furthermore, TIAX conducted a Monte Carlo analysis by varying ten key parameters over a wide range of values and estimated with 98% certainty that the mean PEM fuel cell system cost would be below DOE's 2005 target of $125/kW. NREL commissioned DJW TECHNOLOGY, LLC to form an Independent Review Team (the Team) of industry fuel cell experts and to evaluate the cost estimation process and the results reported by TIAX. The results of

  14. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  15. IVF cycle cost estimation using Activity Based Costing and Monte Carlo simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassettari, Lucia; Mosca, Marco; Mosca, Roberto; Rolando, Fabio; Costa, Mauro; Pisaturo, Valerio

    2016-03-01

    The Authors present a new methodological approach in stochastic regime to determine the actual costs of an healthcare process. The paper specifically shows the application of the methodology for the determination of the cost of an Assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment in Italy. The reason of this research comes from the fact that deterministic regime is inadequate to implement an accurate estimate of the cost of this particular treatment. In fact the durations of the different activities involved are unfixed and described by means of frequency distributions. Hence the need to determine in addition to the mean value of the cost, the interval within which it is intended to vary with a known confidence level. Consequently the cost obtained for each type of cycle investigated (in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer with or without intracytoplasmic sperm injection), shows tolerance intervals around the mean value sufficiently restricted as to make the data obtained statistically robust and therefore usable also as reference for any benchmark with other Countries. It should be noted that under a methodological point of view the approach was rigorous. In fact it was used both the technique of Activity Based Costing for determining the cost of individual activities of the process both the Monte Carlo simulation, with control of experimental error, for the construction of the tolerance intervals on the final result.

  16. Cost estimates for Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm: a budgetary analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, J. Andrew.

    1991-01-01

    Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm (DS/DS) presented unique challenges for estimating the cost of that conflict. This analysis reviews the cost estimates and methodologies developed for that purpose by DoD, CBO and GAO. It considers the budget climate and the role of foreign cash and in-kind contributions. Finally, it reviews the budgeting innovations used to provide and monitor DS/DS defense spending. At the outset of the crisis, costs were estimated to determine the defense funding requir...

  17. Methodology to estimate the cost of the severe accidents risk / maximum benefit; Metodologia para estimar el costo del riesgo de accidentes severos / beneficio maximo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendoza, G.; Flores, R. M.; Vega, E., E-mail: gozalo.mendoza@inin.gob.mx [ININ, Carretera Mexico-Toluca s/n, 52750 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2016-09-15

    For programs and activities to manage aging effects, any changes to plant operations, inspections, maintenance activities, systems and administrative control procedures during the renewal period should be characterized, designed to manage the effects of aging as required by 10 Cfr Part 54 that could impact the environment. Environmental impacts significantly different from those described in the final environmental statement for the current operating license should be described in detail. When complying with the requirements of a license renewal application, the Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis is contained in a supplement to the environmental report of the plant that meets the requirements of 10 Cfr Part 51. In this paper, the methodology for estimating the cost of severe accidents risk is established and discussed, which is then used to identify and select the alternatives for severe accident mitigation, which are analyzed to estimate the maximum benefit that an alternative could achieve if this eliminate all risk. Using the regulatory analysis techniques of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates the cost of severe accidents risk. The ultimate goal of implementing the methodology is to identify candidates for SAMA that have the potential to reduce the severe accidents risk and determine if the implementation of each candidate is cost-effective. (Author)

  18. A methodology to identify stranded generation facilities and estimate stranded costs for Louisiana's electric utility industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cope, Robert Frank, III

    1998-12-01

    The electric utility industry in the United States is currently experiencing a new and different type of growing pain. It is the pain of having to restructure itself into a competitive business. Many industry experts are trying to explain how the nation as a whole, as well as individual states, will implement restructuring and handle its numerous "transition problems." One significant transition problem for federal and state regulators rests with determining a utility's stranded costs. Stranded generation facilities are assets which would be uneconomic in a competitive environment or costs for assets whose regulated book value is greater than market value. At issue is the methodology which will be used to estimate stranded costs. The two primary methods are known as "Top-Down" and "Bottom-Up." The "Top-Down" approach simply determines the present value of the losses in revenue as the market price for electricity changes over a period of time into the future. The problem with this approach is that it does not take into account technical issues associated with the generation and wheeling of electricity. The "Bottom-Up" approach computes the present value of specific strandable generation facilities and compares the resulting valuations with their historical costs. It is regarded as a detailed and difficult, but more precise, approach to identifying stranded assets and their associated costs. This dissertation develops a "Bottom-Up" quantitative, optimization-based approach to electric power wheeling within the state of Louisiana. It optimally evaluates all production capabilities and coordinates the movement of bulk power through transmission interconnections of competing companies in and around the state. Sensitivity analysis to this approach is performed by varying seasonal consumer demand, electric power imports, and transmission inter-connection cost parameters. Generation facility economic dispatch and transmission interconnection bulk power transfers, specific

  19. 24 CFR Appendix to Part 972 - Methodology of Comparing Cost of Public Housing With the Cost of Tenant-Based Assistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... useful life. The estimated cost for the continued operation of the development as public housing shall be... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Methodology of Comparing Cost of Public Housing With the Cost of Tenant-Based Assistance Appendix to Part 972 Housing and Urban...

  20. Methodology for uranium resource estimates and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchfield, D.M.

    1980-01-01

    The NURE uranium assessment method has evolved from a small group of geologists estimating resources on a few lease blocks, to a national survey involving an interdisciplinary system consisting of the following: (1) geology and geologic analogs; (2) engineering and cost modeling; (3) mathematics and probability theory, psychology and elicitation of subjective judgments; and (4) computerized calculations, computer graphics, and data base management. The evolution has been spurred primarily by two objectives; (1) quantification of uncertainty, and (2) elimination of simplifying assumptions. This has resulted in a tremendous data-gathering effort and the involvement of hundreds of technical experts, many in uranium geology, but many from other fields as well. The rationality of the methods is still largely based on the concept of an analog and the observation that the results are reasonable. The reliability, or repeatability, of the assessments is reasonably guaranteed by the series of peer and superior technical reviews which has been formalized under the current methodology. The optimism or pessimism of individual geologists who make the initial assessments is tempered by the review process, resulting in a series of assessments which are a consistent, unbiased reflection of the facts. Despite the many improvements over past methods, several objectives for future development remain, primarily to reduce subjectively in utilizing factual information in the estimation of endowment, and to improve the recognition of cost uncertainties in the assessment of economic potential. The 1980 NURE assessment methodology will undoubtly be improved, but the reader is reminded that resource estimates are and always will be a forecast for the future

  1. IDC reengineering Phase 2 & 3 US industry standard cost estimate summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, James M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huelskamp, Robert M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, using a commercial software cost estimation tool calibrated to US industry performance parameters. This is not a cost estimate for Sandia to perform the project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  2. Comparing NASA and ESA Cost Estimating Methods for Human Missions to Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Charles D.; vanPelt, Michel O.

    2004-01-01

    To compare working methodologies between the cost engineering functions in NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and ESA European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), as well as to set-up cost engineering capabilities for future manned Mars projects and other studies which involve similar subsystem technologies in MSFC and ESTEC, a demonstration cost estimate exercise was organized. This exercise was a direct way of enhancing not only cooperation between agencies but also both agencies commitment to credible cost analyses. Cost engineers in MSFC and ESTEC independently prepared life-cycle cost estimates for a reference human Mars project and subsequently compared the results and estimate methods in detail. As a non-sensitive, public domain reference case for human Mars projects, the Mars Direct concept was chosen. In this paper the results of the exercise are shown; the differences and similarities in estimate methodologies, philosophies, and databases between MSFC and ESTEC, as well as the estimate results for the Mars Direct concept. The most significant differences are explained and possible estimate improvements identified. In addition, the Mars Direct plan and the extensive cost breakdown structure jointly set-up by MSFC and ESTEC for this concept are presented. It was found that NASA applied estimate models mainly based on historic Apollo and Space Shuttle cost data, taking into account the changes in technology since then. ESA used models mostly based on European satellite and launcher cost data, taking into account the higher equipment and testing standards for human space flight. Most of NASA's and ESA s estimates for the Mars Direct case are comparable, but there are some important, consistent differences in the estimates for: 1) Large Structures and Thermal Control subsystems; 2) System Level Management, Engineering, Product Assurance and Assembly, Integration and Test/Verification activities; 3) Mission Control; 4) Space Agency Program Level

  3. Cost Estimation for Research Reactor Decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    One of the IAEA's statutory objectives is to 'seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world'. One way this objective is achieved is through the publication of a range of technical series. Two of these are the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series and the IAEA Safety Standards Series. According to Article III.A.6 of the IAEA Statute, the safety standards establish 'standards of safety for protection of health and minimization of danger to life and property.' The safety standards include the Safety Fundamentals, Safety Requirements and Safety Guides. These standards are written primarily in a regulatory style, and are binding on the IAEA for its own programmes. The principal users are the regulatory bodies in Member States and other national authorities. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series comprises reports designed to encourage and assist R and D on, and application of, nuclear energy for peaceful uses. This includes practical examples to be used by owners and operators of utilities in Member States, implementing organizations, academia, and government officials, among others. This information is presented in guides, reports on technology status and advances, and best practices for peaceful uses of nuclear energy based on inputs from international experts. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series complements the IAEA Safety Standards Series. The purpose of this publication is to develop a costing methodology and a software tool in order to support cost estimation for research reactor decommissioning. The costing methodology is intended for the preliminary cost estimation stages for research reactor decommissioning with limited inventory data and other input data available. Existing experience in decommissioning costing is considered. As the basis for the cost calculation structure, the costing model uses the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) that is recommended by the IAEA, the Organisation for

  4. Estimating design costs for first-of-a-kind projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banerjee, Bakul; Fermilab

    2006-01-01

    Modern scientific facilities are often outcomes of projects that are first-of-a-kind, that is, minimal historical data are available for project costs and schedules. However, at Fermilab, there was an opportunity to execute two similar projects consecutively. In this paper, a comparative study of the design costs for these two projects is presented using earned value methodology. This study provides some insights into how to estimate the cost of a replicated project

  5. Cost Engineering Techniques and Their Applicability for Cost Estimation of Organic Rankine Cycle Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanne Lemmens

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential of organic Rankine cycle (ORC systems is acknowledged by both considerable research and development efforts and an increasing number of applications. Most research aims at improving ORC systems through technical performance optimization of various cycle architectures and working fluids. The assessment and optimization of technical feasibility is at the core of ORC development. Nonetheless, economic feasibility is often decisive when it comes down to considering practical instalments, and therefore an increasing number of publications include an estimate of the costs of the designed ORC system. Various methods are used to estimate ORC costs but the resulting values are rarely discussed with respect to accuracy and validity. The aim of this paper is to provide insight into the methods used to estimate these costs and open the discussion about the interpretation of these results. A review of cost engineering practices shows there has been a long tradition of industrial cost estimation. Several techniques have been developed, but the expected accuracy range of the best techniques used in research varies between 10% and 30%. The quality of the estimates could be improved by establishing up-to-date correlations for the ORC industry in particular. Secondly, the rapidly growing ORC cost literature is briefly reviewed. A graph summarizing the estimated ORC investment costs displays a pattern of decreasing costs for increasing power output. Knowledge on the actual costs of real ORC modules and projects remains scarce. Finally, the investment costs of a known heat recovery ORC system are discussed and the methodologies and accuracies of several approaches are demonstrated using this case as benchmark. The best results are obtained with factorial estimation techniques such as the module costing technique, but the accuracies may diverge by up to +30%. Development of correlations and multiplication factors for ORC technology in particular is

  6. Estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandmann, Frank G; Robotham, Julie V; Deeny, Sarah R; Edmunds, W John; Jit, Mark

    2018-03-01

    Opportunity costs of bed-days are fundamental to understanding the value of healthcare systems. They greatly influence burden of disease estimations and economic evaluations involving stays in healthcare facilities. However, different estimation techniques employ assumptions that differ crucially in whether to consider the value of the second-best alternative use forgone, of any available alternative use, or the value of the actually chosen alternative. Informed by economic theory, this paper provides a taxonomic framework of methodologies for estimating the opportunity costs of resources. This taxonomy is then applied to bed-days by classifying existing approaches accordingly. We highlight differences in valuation between approaches and the perspective adopted, and we use our framework to appraise the assumptions and biases underlying the standard approaches that have been widely adopted mostly unquestioned in the past, such as the conventional use of reference costs and administrative accounting data. Drawing on these findings, we present a novel approach for estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days in terms of health forgone for the second-best patient, but expressed monetarily. This alternative approach effectively re-connects to the concept of choice and explicitly considers net benefits. It is broadly applicable across settings and for other resources besides bed-days. © 2017 The Authors Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. A Practical Methodology for Disaggregating the Drivers of Drug Costs Using Administrative Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lungu, Elena R; Manti, Orlando J; Levine, Mitchell A H; Clark, Douglas A; Potashnik, Tanya M; McKinley, Carol I

    2017-09-01

    Prescription drug expenditures represent a significant component of health care costs in Canada, with estimates of $28.8 billion spent in 2014. Identifying the major cost drivers and the effect they have on prescription drug expenditures allows policy makers and researchers to interpret current cost pressures and anticipate future expenditure levels. To identify the major drivers of prescription drug costs and to develop a methodology to disaggregate the impact of each of the individual drivers. The methodology proposed in this study uses the Laspeyres approach for cost decomposition. This approach isolates the effect of the change in a specific factor (e.g., price) by holding the other factor(s) (e.g., quantity) constant at the base-period value. The Laspeyres approach is expanded to a multi-factorial framework to isolate and quantify several factors that drive prescription drug cost. Three broad categories of effects are considered: volume, price and drug-mix effects. For each category, important sub-effects are quantified. This study presents a new and comprehensive methodology for decomposing the change in prescription drug costs over time including step-by-step demonstrations of how the formulas were derived. This methodology has practical applications for health policy decision makers and can aid researchers in conducting cost driver analyses. The methodology can be adjusted depending on the purpose and analytical depth of the research and data availability. © 2017 Journal of Population Therapeutics and Clinical Pharmacology. All rights reserved.

  8. Estimating the Cost of Providing Foundational Public Health Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamaril, Cezar Brian C; Mays, Glen P; Branham, Douglas Keith; Bekemeier, Betty; Marlowe, Justin; Timsina, Lava

    2017-12-28

    To estimate the cost of resources required to implement a set of Foundational Public Health Services (FPHS) as recommended by the Institute of Medicine. A stochastic simulation model was used to generate probability distributions of input and output costs across 11 FPHS domains. We used an implementation attainment scale to estimate costs of fully implementing FPHS. We use data collected from a diverse cohort of 19 public health agencies located in three states that implemented the FPHS cost estimation methodology in their agencies during 2014-2015. The average agency incurred costs of $48 per capita implementing FPHS at their current attainment levels with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 16 percent. Achieving full FPHS implementation would require $82 per capita (CV=19 percent), indicating an estimated resource gap of $34 per capita. Substantial variation in costs exists across communities in resources currently devoted to implementing FPHS, with even larger variation in resources needed for full attainment. Reducing geographic inequities in FPHS may require novel financing mechanisms and delivery models that allow health agencies to have robust roles within the health system and realize a minimum package of public health services for the nation. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  9. Regional Cost Estimates for Reclamation Practices on Arid and Semiarid Lands; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    W. K. Ostler

    2002-01-01

    The U.S. Army uses the Integrated Training Area Management program for managing training land. One of the major objectives of the Integrated Training Area Management program has been to develop a method for estimating training land carrying capacity in a sustainable manner. The Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology measures training load in terms of Maneuver Impact Miles. One Maneuver Impact Mile is the equivalent impact of an M1A2 tank traveling one mile while participating in an armor battalion field training exercise. The Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology is also designed to predict land maintenance costs in terms of dollars per Maneuver Impact Mile. The overall cost factor is calculated using the historical cost of land maintenance practices and the effectiveness of controlling erosion. Because land maintenance costs and effectiveness are influenced by the characteristics of the land, Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity cost factors must be developed for each ecological region of the country. Costs for land maintenance activities are presented here for the semiarid and arid regions of the United States. Five ecoregions are recognized, and average values for reclamation activities are presented. Because there are many variables that can influence costs, ranges for reclamation activities are also presented. Costs are broken down into six major categories: seedbed preparation, fertilization, seeding, planting, mulching, and supplemental erosion control. Costs for most land reclamation practices and materials varied widely within and between ecological provinces. Although regional cost patterns were evident for some practices, the patterns were not consistent between practices. For the purpose of estimating land reclamation costs for the Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology, it may be desirable to use the ''Combined Average'' of all provinces found in the last row of each table

  10. Least-cost Paths - Some Methodological Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irmela Herzog

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with methodological issues connected with least-cost path (LCP calculations in archaeology. The number of LCP studies in archaeology has increased rapidly during the last couple of years, but not all of the approaches applied are based on an appropriate model and implementation. Many archaeologists rely on standard GIS software with default settings for calculating LCPs and are not aware of possible alternatives and the pitfalls that are described in this article. After briefly introducing the aims and applications of LCP methods in archaeology, LCP algorithms are discussed. The outcome of the LCP calculations depends not only on the algorithm but also on the cost model, which often includes several cost components. The discussion of the cost components has a focus on slope, because nearly all archaeological LCP studies take this cost component into account and because several methodological issues are connected with slope-based cost models. Other possible cost components are: the load of the walker, vegetation cover, wetlands or other soil properties, travelling and transport on water, water as barrier and as attractor, aspect, altitude, and social or cultural cost components. Eventually, advantages and disadvantages of different ways of combining cost components are presented. Based on the methodological issues I conclude that both validation checks and variations of the model are necessary to analyse the reliability of archaeological LCP results.

  11. A standard methodology for cost-effectiveness analysis of new environmental technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, S.R.; Trocki, L.K.; Bowling, L.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines a methodology that is being applied to assess the cost-effectiveness of new environmental technologies under development by EM-50, DOE. Performance, total system effects, and life-cycle costs are all considered in the methodology to compare new technologies with existing or base-line technologies. An example of performance characterization is given in the paper. Sources of data for cost estimates and technology characterizations also appear in the paper. The Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a massive clean up effort of waste sites that contain hazardous, radioactive, or mixed materials. DOE has recognized that improvements in environmental restoration and waste management methods can potentially save the taxpayers billions of dollars as older, less-effective technologies are displaced. Consequently, DOE has targeted significant funding to search for new technologies and to test and demonstrate them in rapid and cost-effective manner with the goal of applying them quickly to address environmental problems

  12. A Novel Methodology for Estimating State-Of-Charge of Li-Ion Batteries Using Advanced Parameters Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim M. Safwat

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available State-of-charge (SOC estimations of Li-ion batteries have been the focus of many research studies in previous years. Many articles discussed the dynamic model’s parameters estimation of the Li-ion battery, where the fixed forgetting factor recursive least square estimation methodology is employed. However, the change rate of each parameter to reach the true value is not taken into consideration, which may tend to poor estimation. This article discusses this issue, and proposes two solutions to solve it. The first solution is the usage of a variable forgetting factor instead of a fixed one, while the second solution is defining a vector of forgetting factors, which means one factor for each parameter. After parameters estimation, a new idea is proposed to estimate state-of-charge (SOC of the Li-ion battery based on Newton’s method. Also, the error percentage and computational cost are discussed and compared with that of nonlinear Kalman filters. This methodology is applied on a 36 V 30 A Li-ion pack to validate this idea.

  13. Methodology to Forecast Volume and Cost of Cancer Drugs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yehoda M. Martei

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs, frequent outages of the stock of cancer drugs undermine cancer care delivery and are potentially fatal for patients with cancer. The aim of this study is to describe a methodologic approach to forecast chemotherapy volume and estimate cost that can be readily updated and applied in most LMICs. Methods: Prerequisite data for forecasting are population-based incidence data and cost estimates per unit of drug to be ordered. We used the supplementary guidelines from the WHO list of essential medicines for cancer to predict treatment plans and ordering patterns. We used de-identified aggregate data from the Botswana National Cancer Registry to estimate incident cases. The WHO Management Sciences for Health International Price Indicator was used to estimate unit costs per drug. Results: Chemotherapy volume required for incident cancer cases was estimated as the product of the standardized dose required to complete a full treatment regimen per patient, with a given cancer diagnosis and stage, multiplied by the total number of incident cancer cases with the respective diagnosis. The estimated chemotherapy costs to treat the 10 most common cancers in the public health care sector of Botswana is approximately 2.3 million US dollars. An estimated 66% of the budget is allocated to costs of rituximab and trastuzumab alone, which are used by approximately 10% of the cancer population. Conclusion: This method provides a reproducible approach to forecast chemotherapy volume and cost in LMICs. The chemotherapy volume and cost outputs of this methodology provide key stakeholders with valuable information that can guide budget estimation, resource allocation, and drug-price negotiations for cancer treatment. Ultimately, this will minimize drug shortages or outages and reduce potential loss of lives that result from an erratic drug supply.

  14. Costs of disarmament - Rethinking the price tag: A methodological inquiry into the costs and benefits of arms control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willett, S.

    2002-06-01

    The growing number of arms control and disarmament treaties agreed on over the past decades as well as rising concerns about harmful environmental and public health effects of weapons disposal, have understandably led to an increase in the cost of implementing arms control agreements. As a result, the expenses associated with treaty compliance have emerged as a contentious issue within the realm of arms control and disarmament discussions. In particular, opponents of arms control and disarmament point to perceived rising costs of meeting current and proposed treaty obligations in an attempt to limit and undermine such activities. Yet determining just how much arms control and disarmament cost remains very much an ambiguous task. In Costs of Disarmament - Rethinking the Price Tag: A Methodological Inquiry into the Costs and Benefits of Arms Control, Susan Willett addresses the question of how the cost of arms control ought to be measured. Emphasizing the proper allocation of costs associated with arms control treaty implementation to the life cycle costs of weapon systems and their correct weighing against the benefits they procure in terms of averted arms races and increased international security, Willett argues for a revised methodology of costing arms control and disarmament that gives a more accurate - and significantly lower - estimate of the latter. Adopting such a revised methodology concludes the author, might dispel considerable misunderstanding and help point decisions over arms control and disarmament in the right direction

  15. A methodology for costing man-rem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bieber, C.

    1976-03-01

    An attempt is made to provide a methodology for costing man-rem in a way that can be applied to station conditions, based on 1974 Pickering G.S. data. Factors taken into account were social costs, exposure costs (dose accounting, training, dosimetry) temporary labour costs, and permanent replacement labour costs. A figure of $620/ man-rem was derived. (LL)

  16. Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with other Recent Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report compares hydrogen station cost estimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other cost estimates. These other cost estimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

  17. Implementing the cost-optimal methodology in EU countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Atanasiu, Bogdan; Kouloumpi, Ilektra; Thomsen, Kirsten Engelund

    This study presents three cost-optimal calculations. The overall aim is to provide a deeper analysis and to provide additional guidance on how to properly implement the cost-optimality methodology in Member States. Without proper guidance and lessons from exemplary case studies using realistic...... input data (reflecting the likely future development), there is a risk that the cost-optimal methodology may be implemented at sub-optimal levels. This could lead to a misalignment between the defined cost-optimal levels and the long-term goals, leaving a significant energy saving potential unexploited....... Therefore, this study provides more evidence on the implementation of the cost-optimal methodology and highlights the implications of choosing different values for key factors (e.g. discount rates, simulation variants/packages, costs, energy prices) at national levels. The study demonstrates how existing...

  18. Estimating the cost-savings associated with bundling maternal and child health interventions: a proposed methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adesina, Adebiyi; Bollinger, Lori A

    2013-01-01

    There is a pressing need to include cost data in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). This paper proposes a method that combines data from both the WHO CHOosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective (CHOICE) database and the OneHealth Tool (OHT) to develop unit costs for delivering child and maternal health services, both alone and bundled. First, a translog cost function is estimated to calculate factor shares of personnel, consumables, other direct (variable or recurrent costs excluding personnel and consumables) and indirect (capital or investment) costs. Primary source facility level data from Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe are utilized, with separate analyses for hospitals and health centres. Second, the resulting other-direct and indirect factor shares are applied to country unit costs from the WHO CHOICE unit cost database to calculate those portions of unit cost. Third, the remainder of the costs is calculated using default data from the OHT. Fourth, we calculate the effect of bundling services by assuming that a LiST intervention visit takes an average of 20 minutes when delivered alone but only incremental time in addition to the basic visit when delivered in a bundle. Personnel costs account for the greatest share of costs for both hospitals and health centres at 50% and 38%, respectively. The percentages differ between hospitals and health centres for consumables (21% versus 17%), other direct (7.5% versus 6.75%), and indirect (22% versus 23%) costs. Combining the other-direct and indirect factor shares with the WHO CHOICE database and the other costs from OHT provides a comprehensive cost estimate of LiST interventions. Finally, the cost of six recommended antenatal care (ANC) interventions is $69.76 when delivered alone, but $61.18 when delivered as a bundle, a savings of $8.58 (12.2%). This paper proposes a method for estimating a comprehensive cost of providing child and maternal health interventions by combining labor

  19. Cost estimation of thermal and nuclear power using annual securities report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

    2011-01-01

    Cost estimation of generation cost derived from various power sources was widely conducted using model plant or annual securities report of electric utilities. Although annual securities report method was subjected to some limitation in methodology itself, useful information was obtained for cost comparison of thermal and nuclear power. Studies on generation cost evaluation of thermal and nuclear power based on this method during past five years showed that nuclear power cost was almost stable 7 Yen/kWh and thermal power cost was varying 9 - 12 Yen/kWh dependent on violent fluctuations of primary energy cost. Nuclear power was expected cost increase due to enhanced safety requirements or damage compensation of accidents as well as decommissioning and back-end cost, which were difficult to evaluate accurately with annual securities report. Further comprehensive and accurate cost estimation should be encouraged including these items. (T. Tanaka)

  20. Cost function estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, C K; Andersen, K; Kragh-Sørensen, P

    2000-01-01

    on these criteria, a two-part model was chosen. In this model, the probability of incurring any costs was estimated using a logistic regression, while the level of the costs was estimated in the second part of the model. The choice of model had a substantial impact on the predicted health care costs, e...

  1. A new methodology for modeling of direct landslide costs for transportation infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, Martin; Terhorst, Birgit

    2014-05-01

    The world's transportation infrastructure is at risk of landslides in many areas across the globe. A safe and affordable operation of traffic routes are the two main criteria for transportation planning in landslide-prone areas. The right balancing of these often conflicting priorities requires, amongst others, profound knowledge of the direct costs of landslide damage. These costs include capital investments for landslide repair and mitigation as well as operational expenditures for first response and maintenance works. This contribution presents a new methodology for ex post assessment of direct landslide costs for transportation infrastructures. The methodology includes tools to compile, model, and extrapolate landslide losses on different spatial scales over time. A landslide susceptibility model enables regional cost extrapolation by means of a cost figure obtained from local cost compilation for representative case study areas. On local level, cost survey is closely linked with cost modeling, a toolset for cost estimation based on landslide databases. Cost modeling uses Landslide Disaster Management Process Models (LDMMs) and cost modules to simulate and monetize cost factors for certain types of landslide damage. The landslide susceptibility model provides a regional exposure index and updates the cost figure to a cost index which describes the costs per km of traffic route at risk of landslides. Both indexes enable the regionalization of local landslide losses. The methodology is applied and tested in a cost assessment for highways in the Lower Saxon Uplands, NW Germany, in the period 1980 to 2010. The basis of this research is a regional subset of a landslide database for the Federal Republic of Germany. In the 7,000 km² large Lower Saxon Uplands, 77 km of highway are located in potential landslide hazard area. Annual average costs of 52k per km of highway at risk of landslides are identified as cost index for a local case study area in this region. The

  2. High School Students' Accuracy in Estimating the Cost of College: A Proposed Methodological Approach and Differences among Racial/Ethnic Groups and College Financial-Related Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nienhusser, H. Kenny; Oshio, Toko

    2017-01-01

    High school students' accuracy in estimating the cost of college (AECC) was examined by utilizing a new methodological approach, the absolute-deviation-continuous construct. This study used the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) data and examined 10,530 11th grade students in order to measure their AECC for 4-year public and private…

  3. Automated methodology for estimating waste streams generated from decommissioning contaminated facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, J.J.; King, D.A.; Humphreys, K.K.; Haffner, D.R.

    1994-01-01

    As part of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS), a viable way to determine aggregate waste volumes, cost, and direct labor hours for decommissioning and decontaminating facilities is required. In this paper, a methodology is provided for determining waste streams, cost and direct labor hours from remediation of contaminated facilities. The method is developed utilizing U.S. facility remediation data and information from several decommissioning programs, including reactor decommissioning projects. The method provides for rapid, consistent analysis for many facility types. Three remediation scenarios are considered for facility D ampersand D: unrestricted land use, semi-restricted land use, and restricted land use. Unrestricted land use involves removing radioactive components, decontaminating the building surfaces, and demolishing the remaining structure. Semi-restricted land use involves removing transuranic contamination and immobilizing the contamination on-site. Restricted land use involves removing the transuranic contamination and leaving the building standing. In both semi-restricted and restricted land use scenarios, verification of containment with environmental monitoring is required. To use the methodology, facilities are placed in a building category depending upon the level of contamination, construction design, and function of the building. Unit volume and unit area waste generation factors are used to calculate waste volumes and estimate the amount of waste generated in each of the following classifications: low-level, transuranic, and hazardous waste. Unit factors for cost and labor hours are also applied to the result to estimate D ampersand D cost and labor hours

  4. Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ward, P.J.; Strzepek, K.; Pauw, W.P.; Brander, L.M.; Hughes, G.; Aerts, J.C.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a

  5. Development of hybrid lifecycle cost estimating tool (HLCET) for manufacturing influenced design tradeoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirirojvisuth, Apinut

    In complex aerospace system design, making an effective design decision requires multidisciplinary knowledge from both product and process perspectives. Integrating manufacturing considerations into the design process is most valuable during the early design stages since designers have more freedom to integrate new ideas when changes are relatively inexpensive in terms of time and effort. Several metrics related to manufacturability are cost, time, and manufacturing readiness level (MRL). Yet, there is a lack of structured methodology that quantifies how changes in the design decisions impact these metrics. As a result, a new set of integrated cost analysis tools are proposed in this study to quantify the impacts. Equally important is the capability to integrate this new cost tool into the existing design methodologies without sacrificing agility and flexibility required during the early design phases. To demonstrate the applicability of this concept, a ModelCenter environment is used to develop software architecture that represents Integrated Product and Process Development (IPPD) methodology used in several aerospace systems designs. The environment seamlessly integrates product and process analysis tools and makes effective transition from one design phase to the other while retaining knowledge gained a priori. Then, an advanced cost estimating tool called Hybrid Lifecycle Cost Estimating Tool (HLCET), a hybrid combination of weight-, process-, and activity-based estimating techniques, is integrated with the design framework. A new weight-based lifecycle cost model is created based on Tailored Cost Model (TCM) equations [3]. This lifecycle cost tool estimates the program cost based on vehicle component weights and programmatic assumptions. Additional high fidelity cost tools like process-based and activity-based cost analysis methods can be used to modify the baseline TCM result as more knowledge is accumulated over design iterations. Therefore, with this

  6. Cost Assessment Methodology and Economic Viability of Tidal Energy Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Segura

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The exploitation of technologies with which to harness the energy from ocean currents will have considerable possibilities in the future thanks to their enormous potential for electricity production and their high predictability. In this respect, the development of methodologies for the economic viability of these technologies is fundamental to the attainment of a consistent quantification of their costs and the discovery of their economic viability, while simultaneously attracting investment in these technologies. This paper presents a methodology with which to determine the economic viability of tidal energy projects, which includes a technical study of the life-cycle costs into which the development of a tidal farm can be decomposed: concept and definition, design and development, manufacturing, installation, operation and maintenance and dismantling. These cost structures are additionally subdivided by considering their sub-costs and bearing in mind the main components of the tidal farm: the nacelle, the supporting tidal energy converter structure and the export power system. Furthermore, a technical study is developed in order to obtain an estimation of the annual energy produced (and, consequently, the incomes generated if the electric tariff is known by considering its principal attributes: the characteristics of the current, the ability of the device to capture energy and its ability to convert and export the energy. The methodology has been applied (together with a sensibility analysis to the particular case of a farm composed of first generation tidal energy converters in one of the Channel Island Races, the Alderney Race, in the U.K., and the results have been attained by means of the computation of engineering indexes, such as the net present value, the internal rate of return, the discounted payback period and the levelized cost of energy, which indicate that the proposed project is economically viable for all the case studies.

  7. The great environmental restoration cost estimating shootout: A blind test of three DOE cost estimating groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemen, Paul

    1992-01-01

    The cost of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Restoration (ER) Program has increased steadily over the last three years and, in the process, has drawn increasing scrutiny from Congress, the public, and government agencies such as the Office of Management and Budget and the General Accounting Office. Programmatic costs have been reviewed by many groups from within the DOE as well as from outside agencies. While cost may appear to be a universally applicable barometer of project conditions, it is actually a single dimensional manifestation of a complex set of conditions. As such, variations in cost estimates can be caused by a variety of underlying factors such as changes in scope, schedule, performing organization, economic conditions, or regulatory environment. This paper will examine the subject of cost estimates by evaluating three different cost estimates prepared for a single project including two estimates prepared by project proponents and another estimate prepared by a review team. The paper identifies the reasons for cost growth as measured by the different estimates and evaluates the ability of review estimates to measure the validity of costs. The comparative technique used to test the three cost estimates will identify the reasons for changes in the estimated cost, over time, and evaluate the ability of an independent review to correctly identify the reasons for cost growth and evaluate the reasonableness of the cost proposed by the project proponents. Recommendations are made for improved cost estimates and improved cost estimate reviews. Conclusions are reached regarding the differences in estimate results that can be attributed to differences in estimating techniques, the implications of these differences for decision makers, and circumstances that are unique to environmental cost estimating. (author)

  8. Theoretical, Methodological, and Empirical Approaches to Cost Savings: A Compendium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M Weimar

    1998-12-10

    This publication summarizes and contains the original documentation for understanding why the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) privatization approach provides cost savings and the different approaches that could be used in calculating cost savings for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Phase I contract. The initial section summarizes the approaches in the different papers. The appendices are the individual source papers which have been reviewed by individuals outside of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the TWRS Program. Appendix A provides a theoretical basis for and estimate of the level of savings that can be" obtained from a fixed-priced contract with performance risk maintained by the contractor. Appendix B provides the methodology for determining cost savings when comparing a fixed-priced contractor with a Management and Operations (M&O) contractor (cost-plus contractor). Appendix C summarizes the economic model used to calculate cost savings and provides hypothetical output from preliminary calculations. Appendix D provides the summary of the approach for the DOE-Richland Operations Office (RL) estimate of the M&O contractor to perform the same work as BNFL Inc. Appendix E contains information on cost growth and per metric ton of glass costs for high-level waste at two other DOE sites, West Valley and Savannah River. Appendix F addresses a risk allocation analysis of the BNFL proposal that indicates,that the current approach is still better than the alternative.

  9. Methodology for generating waste volume estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, J.Q.; Hale, T.; Miller, D.

    1991-09-01

    This document describes the methodology that will be used to calculate waste volume estimates for site characterization and remedial design/remedial action activities at each of the DOE Field Office, Oak Ridge (DOE-OR) facilities. This standardized methodology is designed to ensure consistency in waste estimating across the various sites and organizations that are involved in environmental restoration activities. The criteria and assumptions that are provided for generating these waste estimates will be implemented across all DOE-OR facilities and are subject to change based on comments received and actual waste volumes measured during future sampling and remediation activities. 7 figs., 8 tabs

  10. A Cost Estimation Model for Commander Naval Air Forces Paicifc's TACAIR F/A-18S Aviation Depot Level Repair Costs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Duma, David

    2001-01-01

    .... The first section discusses the methodology used to create a cost estimation model. The second and third sections provide the results of the model's outcomes and compares and analyzes those results to the actual results...

  11. Cogeneration Power Plants: a Proposed Methodology for Unitary Production Cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metalli, E.

    2009-01-01

    A new methodology to evaluate unitary energetic production costs in the cogeneration power plants is proposed. This methodology exploits the energy conversion factors fixed by Italian Regulatory Authority for Electricity and Gas. So it allows to settle such unitary costs univocally for a given plant, without assigning them a priori subjective values when there are two or more energy productions at the same time. Moreover the proposed methodology always ensures positive values for these costs, complying with the total generation cost balance equation. [it

  12. A Deterministic and Probabilistic Cost Estimate for Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Gag Kyeon; Kwon, Jong Jooh

    2005-01-01

    There are many cost estimate methodologies for some future projects. Revenue Requirement Method (RRM), Cost/Benefit Ratio method, Return on Investment, Pay Back Period Method. etc. This paper uses the RRM method which is the amount of revenue that must be collected from customers to compensate a utility for all expenditures associated with implementing an alternative decision involving money. This RRM can be combined with a random sampling statistical simulation computer program to calculated the Probability Distribution Functions(PDF) of the cost elements for generating cost. EPRI developed this combined statistical techniques into RRM, named Statistical Revenue Requirement Method(SRRM). The statistical technique is a random sampling statistical simulation. The simulation tool is usually Monte Carlo sampling, Latin Latin Hypercube sampling, etc. SRRM is used to estimating for future power plants, apartments, hospital, marketing, etc. In this paper, RRM calculation and SRRM simulation have been practiced for PWR1400MWe nuclear power plants

  13. A methodological framework for assessing agreement between cost-effectiveness outcomes estimated using alternative sources of data on treatment costs and effects for trial-based economic evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achana, Felix; Petrou, Stavros; Khan, Kamran; Gaye, Amadou; Modi, Neena

    2018-01-01

    A new methodological framework for assessing agreement between cost-effectiveness endpoints generated using alternative sources of data on treatment costs and effects for trial-based economic evaluations is proposed. The framework can be used to validate cost-effectiveness endpoints generated from routine data sources when comparable data is available directly from trial case report forms or from another source. We illustrate application of the framework using data from a recent trial-based economic evaluation of the probiotic Bifidobacterium breve strain BBG administered to babies less than 31 weeks of gestation. Cost-effectiveness endpoints are compared using two sources of information; trial case report forms and data extracted from the National Neonatal Research Database (NNRD), a clinical database created through collaborative efforts of UK neonatal services. Focusing on mean incremental net benefits at £30,000 per episode of sepsis averted, the study revealed no evidence of discrepancy between the data sources (two-sided p values >0.4), low probability estimates of miscoverage (ranging from 0.039 to 0.060) and concordance correlation coefficients greater than 0.86. We conclude that the NNRD could potentially serve as a reliable source of data for future trial-based economic evaluations of neonatal interventions. We also discuss the potential implications of increasing opportunity to utilize routinely available data for the conduct of trial-based economic evaluations.

  14. An Applied Study of Implementation of the Advanced Decommissioning Costing Methodology for Intermediate Storage Facility for Spent Fuel in Studsvik, Sweden with special emphasis to the application of the Omega code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kristofova, Kristina; Vasko, Marek; Daniska, Vladimir; Ondra, Frantisek; Bezak, Peter [DECOM Slovakia, spol. s.r.o., J. Bottu 2, SK-917 01 Trnava (Slovakia); Lindskog, Staffan [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-01-15

    The presented study is focused on an analysis of decommissioning costs for the Intermediate Storage Facility for Spent Fuel (FA) facility in Studsvik prepared by SVAFO and a proposal of the advanced decommissioning costing methodology application. Therefore, this applied study concentrates particularly in the following areas: 1. Analysis of FA facility cost estimates prepared by SVAFO including description of FA facility in Studsvik, summarised input data, applied cost estimates methodology and summarised results from SVAFO study. 2. Discussion of results of the SVAFO analysis, proposals for enhanced cost estimating methodology and upgraded structure of inputs/outputs for decommissioning study for FA facility. 3. Review of costing methodologies with the special emphasis on the advanced costing methodology and cost calculation code OMEGA. 4. Discussion on implementation of the advanced costing methodology for FA facility in Studsvik together with: - identification of areas of implementation; - analyses of local decommissioning infrastructure; - adaptation of the data for the calculation database; - inventory database; and - implementation of the style of work with the computer code OMEGA.

  15. An Applied Study of Implementation of the Advanced Decommissioning Costing Methodology for Intermediate Storage Facility for Spent Fuel in Studsvik, Sweden with special emphasis to the application of the Omega code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristofova, Kristina; Vasko, Marek; Daniska, Vladimir; Ondra, Frantisek; Bezak, Peter; Lindskog, Staffan

    2007-01-01

    The presented study is focused on an analysis of decommissioning costs for the Intermediate Storage Facility for Spent Fuel (FA) facility in Studsvik prepared by SVAFO and a proposal of the advanced decommissioning costing methodology application. Therefore, this applied study concentrates particularly in the following areas: 1. Analysis of FA facility cost estimates prepared by SVAFO including description of FA facility in Studsvik, summarised input data, applied cost estimates methodology and summarised results from SVAFO study. 2. Discussion of results of the SVAFO analysis, proposals for enhanced cost estimating methodology and upgraded structure of inputs/outputs for decommissioning study for FA facility. 3. Review of costing methodologies with the special emphasis on the advanced costing methodology and cost calculation code OMEGA. 4. Discussion on implementation of the advanced costing methodology for FA facility in Studsvik together with: - identification of areas of implementation; - analyses of local decommissioning infrastructure; - adaptation of the data for the calculation database; - inventory database; and - implementation of the style of work with the computer code OMEGA

  16. Major weapon system environmental life-cycle cost estimating for Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C3P2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Wesley; Thurston, Marland; Hood, Christopher

    1995-01-01

    The Titan 4 Space Launch Vehicle Program is one of many major weapon system programs that have modified acquisition plans and operational procedures to meet new, stringent environmental rules and regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) mandate to reduce the use of ozone depleting chemicals (ODC's) is just one of the regulatory changes that has affected the program. In the last few years, public environmental awareness, coupled with stricter environmental regulations, has created the need for DOD to produce environmental life-cycle cost estimates (ELCCE) for every major weapon system acquisition program. The environmental impact of the weapon system must be assessed and budgeted, considering all costs, from cradle to grave. The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) has proposed that organizations consider Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C(sup 3)P(sup 2)) issues associated with each acquisition program to assess life-cycle impacts and costs. The Air Force selected the Titan 4 system as the pilot program for estimating life-cycle environmental costs. The estimating task required participants to develop an ELCCE methodology, collect data to test the methodology and produce a credible cost estimate within the DOD C(sup 3)P(sup 2) definition. The estimating methodology included using the Program Office weapon system description and work breakdown structure together with operational site and manufacturing plant visits to identify environmental cost drivers. The results of the Titan IV ELCCE process are discussed and expanded to demonstrate how they can be applied to satisfy any life-cycle environmental cost estimating requirement.

  17. Estimating the cost of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldie Sue J

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs can provide useful information to policymakers concerned with the broad allocation of resources as well as to local decision makers choosing between different options for reducing the burden from a single disease. For the latter, it is important to use country-specific data when possible and to represent cost differences between countries that might make one strategy more or less attractive than another strategy locally. As part of a CEA of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries, we supplemented limited primary cost data by developing other estimation techniques for direct medical and non-medical costs associated with alternative screening approaches using one of three initial screening tests: simple visual screening, HPV DNA testing, and cervical cytology. Here, we report estimation methods and results for three cost areas in which data were lacking. Methods To supplement direct medical costs, including staff, supplies, and equipment depreciation using country-specific data, we used alternative techniques to quantify cervical cytology and HPV DNA laboratory sample processing costs. We used a detailed quantity and price approach whose face validity was compared to an adaptation of a US laboratory estimation methodology. This methodology was also used to project annual sample processing capacities for each laboratory type. The cost of sample transport from the clinic to the laboratory was estimated using spatial models. A plausible range of the cost of patient time spent seeking and receiving screening was estimated using only formal sector employment and wages as well as using both formal and informal sector participation and country-specific minimum wages. Data sources included primary data from country-specific studies, international databases, international prices, and expert opinion. Costs were standardized to year 2000 international dollars using inflation adjustment and

  18. A study on the estimation method of nuclear accident risk cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuji

    2016-01-01

    The methodology of estimating nuclear accident risk cost, as a part of nuclear power generation cost, has hardly been established due mainly to the extremely wide range of the estimation of the accident frequency. This study estimates the expected nuclear accident frequency for Japan, making use of the method of Bayesian statistics, which exploits both the information obtained by Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the observed historical accident frequencies. Using the PRA estimation of the Containment Failure Frequency (CFF) for Tomari nuclear power plant unit 3 of Hokkaido Electric Power Company (average: 2.1 x 10 -4 , 95th percentile: 7.7 x 10 -4 ) and the actual large-scale accident frequency (once in 1,460 reactor-years), the posterior CFF was estimated at 3.8 x 10 -4 . This study also took into account the 'external' factor causing unexpected nuclear accidents, concluding that such factor could result in higher CFF estimations, especially with larger observed accident numbers. (author)

  19. A PROPOSED METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING ECOREGIONAL VALUES FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE UNITED STATES

    OpenAIRE

    Bhat, Gajanan; Bergstrom, John C.; Bowker, James Michael; Cordell, H. Ken

    1996-01-01

    This paper provides a methodology for the estimation of recreational demand functions and values using an ecoregional approach. Ten ecoregions in the continental US were defined based on similarly functioning ecosystem characters. The individual travel cost method was employed to estimate the recreational demand functions for activities such as motorboating and waterskiing, developed and primative camping, coldwater fishing, sightseeing and pleasure driving, and big game hunting for each ecor...

  20. Methodology for cost analysis of film-based and filmless portable chest systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melson, David L.; Gauvain, Karen M.; Beardslee, Brian M.; Kraitsik, Michael J.; Burton, Larry; Blaine, G. James; Brink, Gary S.

    1996-05-01

    Many studies analyzing the costs of film-based and filmless radiology have focused on multi- modality, hospital-wide solutions. Yet due to the enormous cost of converting an entire large radiology department or hospital to a filmless environment all at once, institutions often choose to eliminate film one area at a time. Narrowing the focus of cost-analysis may be useful in making such decisions. This presentation will outline a methodology for analyzing the cost per exam of film-based and filmless solutions for providing portable chest exams to Intensive Care Units (ICUs). The methodology, unlike most in the literature, is based on parallel data collection from existing filmless and film-based ICUs, and is currently being utilized at our institution. Direct costs, taken from the perspective of the hospital, for portable computed radiography chest exams in one filmless and two film-based ICUs are identified. The major cost components are labor, equipment, materials, and storage. Methods for gathering and analyzing each of the cost components are discussed, including FTE-based and time-based labor analysis, incorporation of equipment depreciation, lease, and maintenance costs, and estimation of materials costs. Extrapolation of data from three ICUs to model hypothetical, hospital-wide film-based and filmless ICU imaging systems is described. Performance of sensitivity analysis on the filmless model to assess the impact of anticipated reductions in specific labor, equipment, and archiving costs is detailed. A number of indirect costs, which are not explicitly included in the analysis, are identified and discussed.

  1. Cost estimate for a proposed GDF Suez LNG testing program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanchat, Thomas K.; Brady, Patrick Dennis; Jernigan, Dann A.; Luketa, Anay Josephine; Nissen, Mark R.; Lopez, Carlos; Vermillion, Nancy; Hightower, Marion Michael

    2014-02-01

    At the request of GDF Suez, a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate was prepared for the design, construction, testing, and data analysis for an experimental series of large-scale (Liquefied Natural Gas) LNG spills on land and water that would result in the largest pool fires and vapor dispersion events ever conducted. Due to the expected cost of this large, multi-year program, the authors utilized Sandia's structured cost estimating methodology. This methodology insures that the efforts identified can be performed for the cost proposed at a plus or minus 30 percent confidence. The scale of the LNG spill, fire, and vapor dispersion tests proposed by GDF could produce hazard distances and testing safety issues that need to be fully explored. Based on our evaluations, Sandia can utilize much of our existing fire testing infrastructure for the large fire tests and some small dispersion tests (with some modifications) in Albuquerque, but we propose to develop a new dispersion testing site at our remote test area in Nevada because of the large hazard distances. While this might impact some testing logistics, the safety aspects warrant this approach. In addition, we have included a proposal to study cryogenic liquid spills on water and subsequent vaporization in the presence of waves. Sandia is working with DOE on applications that provide infrastructure pertinent to wave production. We present an approach to conduct repeatable wave/spill interaction testing that could utilize such infrastructure.

  2. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

  3. The Psychology of Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Andy

    2016-01-01

    Cost estimation for large (and even not so large) government programs is a challenge. The number and magnitude of cost overruns associated with large Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs highlight the difficulties in developing and promulgating accurate cost estimates. These overruns can be the result of inadequate technology readiness or requirements definition, the whims of politicians or government bureaucrats, or even as failures of the cost estimating profession itself. However, there may be another reason for cost overruns that is right in front of us, but only recently have we begun to grasp it: the fact that cost estimators and their customers are human. The last 70+ years of research into human psychology and behavioral economics have yielded amazing findings into how we humans process and use information to make judgments and decisions. What these scientists have uncovered is surprising: humans are often irrational and illogical beings, making decisions based on factors such as emotion and perception, rather than facts and data. These built-in biases to our thinking directly affect how we develop our cost estimates and how those cost estimates are used. We cost estimators can use this knowledge of biases to improve our cost estimates and also to improve how we communicate and work with our customers. By understanding how our customers think, and more importantly, why they think the way they do, we can have more productive relationships and greater influence. By using psychology to our advantage, we can more effectively help the decision maker and our organizations make fact-based decisions.

  4. Uncertainties in Early Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A case study on biorefinery design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurkan eSin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early stage design is a challenging task. This is especially important in biorefinery research, where available information and experiences with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs (a Bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data is available and (b the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data is not available. Four well-known models for early stage cost estimation are reviewed an analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision making under uncertainties. One of the results using an order-of-magnitude estimate shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with economic risks of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a due to uncertainties in cost estimations, respectively.

  5. Methodology and applications for the benefit cost analysis of the seismic risk reduction in building portfolios at broadscale

    OpenAIRE

    Valcarcel, Jairo A.; Mora, Miguel G.; Cardona, Omar D.; Pujades, Lluis G.; Barbat, Alex H.; Bernal, Gabriel A.

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a methodology for an estimate of the benefit cost ratio of the seismic risk reduction in buildings portfolio at broadscale, for a world region, allowing comparing the results obtained for the countries belonging to that region. This methodology encompasses (1) the generation of a set of random seismic events and the evaluation of the spectral accelerations at the buildings location; (2) the estimation of the buildings built area, the economic value, as well as the cla...

  6. Nuclear power generation cost methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Bowers, H.I.

    1980-08-01

    A simplified calculational procedure for the estimation of nuclear power generation cost is outlined. The report contains a discussion of the various components of power generation cost and basic equations for calculating that cost. An example calculation is given. The basis of the fixed-charge rate, the derivation of the levelized fuel cycle cost equation, and the heavy water charge rate are included as appendixes

  7. Cost of Equity Estimation in Fuel and Energy Sector Companies Based on CAPM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozieł, Diana; Pawłowski, Stanisław; Kustra, Arkadiusz

    2018-03-01

    The article presents cost of equity estimation of capital groups from the fuel and energy sector, listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The objective of the article was to perform a valuation of equity with the application of CAPM, based on actual financial data and stock exchange data and to carry out a sensitivity analysis of such cost, depending on the financing structure of the entity. The objective of the article formulated in this manner has determined its' structure. It focuses on presentation of substantive analyses related to the core of equity and methods of estimating its' costs, with special attention given to the CAPM. In the practical section, estimation of cost was performed according to the CAPM methodology, based on the example of leading fuel and energy companies, such as Tauron GE and PGE. Simultaneously, sensitivity analysis of such cost was performed depending on the structure of financing the company's operation.

  8. Cost of Equity Estimation in Fuel and Energy Sector Companies Based on CAPM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozieł Diana

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents cost of equity estimation of capital groups from the fuel and energy sector, listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. The objective of the article was to perform a valuation of equity with the application of CAPM, based on actual financial data and stock exchange data and to carry out a sensitivity analysis of such cost, depending on the financing structure of the entity. The objective of the article formulated in this manner has determined its’ structure. It focuses on presentation of substantive analyses related to the core of equity and methods of estimating its’ costs, with special attention given to the CAPM. In the practical section, estimation of cost was performed according to the CAPM methodology, based on the example of leading fuel and energy companies, such as Tauron GE and PGE. Simultaneously, sensitivity analysis of such cost was performed depending on the structure of financing the company’s operation.

  9. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology, including advanced validation concepts, to license evolving nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unal, C.; Williams, B.; Hemez, F.; Atamturktur, S.H.; McClure, P.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → The best estimate plus uncertainty methodology (BEPU) is one option in the licensing of nuclear reactors. → The challenges for extending the BEPU method for fuel qualification for an advanced reactor fuel are primarily driven by schedule, the need for data, and the sufficiency of the data. → In this paper we develop an extended BEPU methodology that can potentially be used to address these new challenges in the design and licensing of advanced nuclear reactors. → The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. → The methodology includes a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to existing data, so that required new testing can be minimized, saving cost by demonstrating that further testing will not enhance the quality of the predictive tools. - Abstract: Many evolving nuclear energy technologies use advanced predictive multiscale, multiphysics modeling and simulation (M and S) capabilities to reduce the cost and schedule of design and licensing. Historically, the role of experiments has been as a primary tool for the design and understanding of nuclear system behavior, while M and S played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multiscale, multiphysics computational-based technology development, this role has been reversed. The experiments will still be needed, but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate the models leading to predictive simulations for design and licensing. Minimizing the required number of validation experiments produces cost and time savings. The use of multiscale, multiphysics models introduces challenges in validating these predictive tools - traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these challenges. This paper gives the basic aspects of a methodology that can potentially be used to address these new challenges in

  10. The cost of crime to society: new crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollister, Kathryn E; French, Michael T; Fang, Hai

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Is law enforcement of drug-impaired driving cost-efficient? An explorative study of a methodology for cost-benefit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veisten, Knut; Houwing, Sjoerd; Mathijssen, M P M René; Akhtar, Juned

    2013-03-01

    Road users driving under the influence of psychoactive substances may be at much higher relative risk (RR) in road traffic than the average driver. Legislation banning blood alcohol concentrations above certain threshold levels combined with roadside breath-testing of alcohol have been in lieu for decades in many countries, but new legislation and testing of drivers for drug use have recently been implemented in some countries. In this article we present a methodology for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of increased law enforcement of roadside drug screening. This is an analysis of the profitability for society, where costs of control are weighed against the reduction in injuries expected from fewer drugged drivers on the roads. We specify assumptions regarding costs and the effect of the specificity of the drug screening device, and quantify a deterrence effect related to sensitivity of the device yielding the benefit estimates. Three European countries with different current enforcement levels were studied, yielding benefit-cost ratios in the approximate range of 0.5-5 for a tripling of current levels of enforcement, with costs of about 4000 EUR per convicted and in the range of 1.5 and 13 million EUR per prevented fatality. The applied methodology for CBA has involved a simplistic behavioural response to enforcement increase and control efficiency. Although this methodology should be developed further, it is clearly indicated that the cost-efficiency of increased law enforcement of drug driving offences is dependent on the baseline situation of drug-use in traffic and on the current level of enforcement, as well as the RR and prevalence of drugs in road traffic. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Cost Estimate Summary (Leveraged NDC Case).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, James M.; Prescott, Ryan; Dawson, Jericah M.; Huelskamp, Robert M.

    2014-11-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, based on leveraging a fully funded, Sandia executed NDC Modernization project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  13. NASA Electronic Publishing System: Cost/benefit Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuey, Richard C.

    1994-01-01

    The NASA Scientific and Technical Information Office was assigned the responsibility to examine the benefits of the utilization of electronic printing and duplicating systems throughout NASA Installations and Headquarters. The subject of this report is the documentation of the methodology used in justifying the acquisition of the most cost beneficial solution for the printing and duplicating requirements of a duplicating facility that is contemplating the acquisition of an electronic printing and duplicating system. Four alternatives are presented with each alternative costed out with its associated benefits. The methodology goes a step further than just a cost benefit analysis through its comparison of risks associated with each alternative, sensitivity to number of impressions and productivity gains on the selected alternative and finally the return on investment for the selected alternative. The report can be used in conjunction with the two earlier reports, NASA-TM-106242 and TM-106510 in guiding others in determining the cost effective duplicating alternative.

  14. A methodology for estimating health benefits of electricity generation using renewable technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partridge, Ian; Gamkhar, Shama

    2012-02-01

    At Copenhagen, the developed countries agreed to provide up to $100 bn per year to finance climate change mitigation and adaptation by developing countries. Projects aimed at cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will need to be evaluated against dual criteria: from the viewpoint of the developed countries they must cut emissions of GHGs at reasonable cost, while host countries will assess their contribution to development, or simply their overall economic benefits. Co-benefits of some types of project will also be of interest to host countries: for example some projects will contribute to reducing air pollution, thus improving the health of the local population. This paper uses a simple damage function methodology to quantify some of the health co-benefits of replacing coal-fired generation with wind or small hydro in China. We estimate the monetary value of these co-benefits and find that it is probably small compared to the added costs. We have not made a full cost-benefit analysis of renewable energy in China as some likely co-benefits are omitted from our calculations. Our results are subject to considerable uncertainty however, after careful consideration of their likely accuracy and comparisons with other studies, we believe that they provide a good first cut estimate of co-benefits and are sufficiently robust to stand as a guide for policy makers. In addition to these empirical results, a key contribution made by the paper is to demonstrate a simple and reasonably accurate methodology for health benefits estimation that applies the most recent academic research in the field to the solution of an increasingly important problem. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Survey of State-Level Cost and Benefit Estimates of Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heeter, J.; Barbose, G.; Bird, L.; Weaver, S.; Flores-Espino, F.; Kuskova-Burns, K.; Wiser, R.

    2014-05-01

    Most renewable portfolio standards (RPS) have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS costs and benefits is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. This study provides an overview of methods used to estimate RPS compliance costs and benefits, based on available data and estimates issued by utilities and regulators. Over the 2010-2012 period, average incremental RPS compliance costs in the United States were equivalent to 0.8% of retail electricity rates, although substantial variation exists around this average, both from year-to-year and across states. The methods used by utilities and regulators to estimate incremental compliance costs vary considerably from state to state and a number of states are currently engaged in processes to refine and standardize their approaches to RPS cost calculation. The report finds that state assessments of RPS benefits have most commonly attempted to quantitatively assess avoided emissions and human health benefits, economic development impacts, and wholesale electricity price savings. Compared to the summary of RPS costs, the summary of RPS benefits is more limited, as relatively few states have undertaken detailed benefits estimates, and then only for a few types of potential policy impacts. In some cases, the same impacts may be captured in the assessment of incremental costs. For these reasons, and because methodologies and level of rigor vary widely, direct comparisons between the estimates of benefits and costs are challenging.

  16. Guideline to Estimate Decommissioning Costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Taesik; Kim, Younggook; Oh, Jaeyoung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The primary objective of this work is to provide guidelines to estimate the decommissioning cost as well as the stakeholders with plausible information to understand the decommissioning activities in a reasonable manner, which eventually contribute to acquiring the public acceptance for the nuclear power industry. Although several cases of the decommissioning cost estimate have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific and economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those cost estimates and compare them with that of a relevant plant. Trustworthy cost estimates are crucial to plan a safe and economic decommissioning project. The typical approach is to break down the decommissioning project into a series of discrete and measurable work activities. Although plant specific differences derived from the economic and technical assumptions make a licensee difficult to estimate reliable decommissioning costs, estimating decommissioning costs is the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of activities from the planning to the final evaluation on whether a decommissioning project has successfully been preceded from the perspective of safety and economic points. Hence, it is clear that tenacious efforts should be needed to successfully perform the decommissioning project.

  17. Contractor-style tunnel cost estimating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scapuzzi, D.

    1990-06-01

    Keeping pace with recent advances in construction technology is a challenge for the cost estimating engineer. Using an estimating style that simulates the actual construction process and is similar in style to the contractor's estimate will give a realistic view of underground construction costs. For a contractor-style estimate, a mining method is chosen; labor crews, plant and equipment are selected, and advance rates are calculated for the various phases of work which are used to determine the length of time necessary to complete each phase of work. The durations are multiplied by the cost or labor and equipment per unit of time and, along with the costs for materials and supplies, combine to complete the estimate. Variations in advance rates, ground support, labor crew size, or other areas are more easily analyzed for their overall effect on the cost and schedule of a project. 14 figs

  18. Uncertainties in early-stage capital cost estimation of process design – a case study on biorefinery design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist; Sin, Gürkan

    2015-01-01

    Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which......) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design...

  19. Focus on International Cooperation in D and D Cost Estimations for Research Reactors and the Role of the IAEA in It

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniska, V.; Laraia, M.

    2009-01-01

    Estimating decommissioning costs and collecting funds are the prerequisites for safe, timely and cost effective decommissioning. These issues were addressed by main international organizations involved in decommissioning - IAEA, OECD/NEA and European Commission. While the activities of OECD/NEA and European Commission are focused mainly on nuclear power plants, the activities of IAEA involve the whole spectrum of nuclear facilities worldwide and the aspects of decommissioning of research reactors, due to their spread in member states, have the special position in IAEA activities. The experience in decommissioning of research reactors was accumulated in developed countries and international activities are needed to support the planning and implementation of decommissioning of research reactors in other IAEA Member States. Decommissioning costing plays the key role among these issues. One of the main results of the common effort of the above listed organisations in costing is the standardised structure of decommissioning cost items which was jointly published as the common platform for harmonisation in decommissioning costing and is recommended for general use. Main subject of the paper is the preliminary presentation of a new IAEA project planned for the period 2009-2011 with the objectives to develop the robust standardised cost estimation methodology, which implements the standardised cost structure. The aim of the proposed methodology is to support the Member States to prepare their own specific cost estimates for research reactors. The planned target is the parametric cost estimating model applicable for various types of research reactors and for various national decommissioning backgrounds. The model is supported by facility inventory database and database of unit factors and data specific for facility to be decommissioned. The paper reviews main types of research reactors; the currant practice for decommissioning costing which will be implemented in the

  20. Wastewater Treatment Costs and Outlays in Organic Petrochemicals: Standards Versus Taxes With Methodology Suggestions for Marginal Cost Pricing and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Russell G.; Singleton, F. D., Jr.

    1986-04-01

    With the methodology recommended by Baumol and Oates, comparable estimates of wastewater treatment costs and industry outlays are developed for effluent standard and effluent tax instruments for pollution abatement in five hypothetical organic petrochemicals (olefins) plants. The computational method uses a nonlinear simulation model for wastewater treatment to estimate the system state inputs for linear programming cost estimation, following a practice developed in a National Science Foundation (Research Applied to National Needs) study at the University of Houston and used to estimate Houston Ship Channel pollution abatement costs for the National Commission on Water Quality. Focusing on best practical and best available technology standards, with effluent taxes adjusted to give nearly equal pollution discharges, shows that average daily treatment costs (and the confidence intervals for treatment cost) would always be less for the effluent tax than for the effluent standard approach. However, industry's total outlay for these treatment costs, plus effluent taxes, would always be greater for the effluent tax approach than the total treatment costs would be for the effluent standard approach. Thus the practical necessity of showing smaller outlays as a prerequisite for a policy change toward efficiency dictates the need to link the economics at the microlevel with that at the macrolevel. Aggregation of the plants into a programming modeling basis for individual sectors and for the economy would provide a sound basis for effective policy reform, because the opportunity costs of the salient regulatory policies would be captured. Then, the government's policymakers would have the informational insights necessary to legislate more efficient environmental policies in light of the wealth distribution effects.

  1. The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundaram, Meenakshi

    2005-01-01

    NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

  2. Estimating the cost of accidents and ill-health at work : a review of methodologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerd, M. de; Tierney, R.; Duuren-Stuurman, B. van; Bertranou, E.

    2014-01-01

    What is the real price to pay for not investing in occupational safety and health? Many studies have previously tackled this question by evaluating the costs of poor or non-existent safety and health at work. This report reviews a selection of these studies and analyses the estimating methods used

  3. Top-down and bottom-up approaches for cost estimating new reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berbey, P.; Gautier, G.M.; Duflo, D.; Rouyer, J.L.

    2007-01-01

    For several years, Generation-4 designs will be 'pre-conceptual' for the less mature concepts and 'preliminary' for the more mature concepts. In this situation, appropriate data for some of the plant systems may be lacking to develop a bottom-up cost estimate. Therefore, a more global approach, the Top-Down Approach (TDA), is needed to help the designers and decision makers in comparing design options. It utilizes more or less simple models for cost estimating the different parts of a design. TDA cost estimating effort applies to a whole functional element whose cost is approached by similar estimations coming from existing data, ratios and models, for a given range of variation of parameters. Modeling is used when direct analogy is not possible. There are two types of models, global and specific ones. Global models are applied to cost modules related to Code Of Account. Exponential formulae such as Ci = Ai + (Bi x Pi n ) are used when there are cost data for comparable modules in nuclear or other industries. Specific cost models are developed for major specific components of the plant: - process equipment such as reactor vessel, steam generators or large heat exchangers. - buildings, with formulae estimating the construction cost from base cost of m3 of building volume. - systems, when unit costs, cost ratios and models are used, depending on the level of detail of the design. Bottom Up Approach (BUA), which is based on unit prices coming from similar equipment or from manufacturer consulting, is very valuable and gives better cost estimations than TDA when it can be applied, that is at a rather late stage of the design. Both approaches are complementary when some parts of the design are detailed enough to be estimated by BUA, and when BUA results are used to check TDA results and to improve TDA models. This methodology is applied to the HTR (High Temperature Reactor) concept and to an advanced PWR design

  4. Average System Cost Methodology : Administrator's Record of Decision.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1984-06-01

    Significant features of average system cost (ASC) methodology adopted are: retention of the jurisdictional approach where retail rate orders of regulartory agencies provide primary data for computing the ASC for utilities participating in the residential exchange; inclusion of transmission costs; exclusion of construction work in progress; use of a utility's weighted cost of debt securities; exclusion of income taxes; simplification of separation procedures for subsidized generation and transmission accounts from other accounts; clarification of ASC methodology rules; more generous review timetable for individual filings; phase-in of reformed methodology; and each exchanging utility must file under the new methodology within 20 days of implementation by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission of the ten major participating utilities, the revised ASC will substantially only affect three. (PSB)

  5. Avoided cost estimation and post-reform funding allocation for California's energy efficiency programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baskette, C.; Horii, B.; Price, S.; Kollman, E.

    2006-01-01

    This paper summarizes the first comprehensive estimation of California's electricity avoided costs since the state reformed its electricity market. It describes avoided cost estimates that vary by time and location, thus facilitating targeted design, funding, and marketing of demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency (EE) programs that could not have occurred under the previous methodology of system average cost estimation. The approach, data, and results reflect two important market structure changes: (a) wholesale spot and forward markets now supply electricity commodities to load serving entities; and (b) the evolution of an emissions market that internalizes and prices some of the externalities of electricity generation. The paper also introduces the multiplier effect of a price reduction due to DSM/EE implementation on electricity bills of all consumers. It affirms that area- and time-specific avoided cost estimates can improve the allocation of the state's public funding for DSM/EE programs, a finding that could benefit other parts of North America (e.g. Ontario and New York), which have undergone electricity deregulation. (author)

  6. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unal, Cetin; Williams, Brian; McClure, Patrick; Nelson, Ralph A.

    2010-01-01

    Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M and S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for

  7. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unal, Cetin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Williams, Brian [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mc Clure, Patrick [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nelson, Ralph A [IDAHO NATIONAL LAB

    2010-01-01

    Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for cost

  8. Uncertainties in Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A Case Study on Biorefinery Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist V.; Sin, Gürkan

    2015-01-01

    Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which is especially relevant in biorefinery research where information about new technologies and experience with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs: (a) bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data are available; and, (b) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is indeed found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision-making under uncertainties. One of the results using order-of-magnitude estimates shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with the lowest economic risks (among the alternatives considered) of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a, respectively.

  9. Uncertainties in Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A Case Study on Biorefinery Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist V.; Sin, Gürkan, E-mail: gsi@kt.dtu.dk [Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark)

    2015-02-06

    Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which is especially relevant in biorefinery research where information about new technologies and experience with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs: (a) bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data are available; and, (b) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is indeed found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision-making under uncertainties. One of the results using order-of-magnitude estimates shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with the lowest economic risks (among the alternatives considered) of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a, respectively.

  10. Estimated cost of overactive bladder in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasopsanti, Kriangsak; Santi-Ngamkun, Apirak; Pornprasit, Kanokwan

    2007-11-01

    To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of overactive bladder (OAB) in indigenous Thai people aged 18 years and over in the year 2005. Economically based models using diagnostic and treatment algorithms from clinical practice guidelines and current disease prevalence data were used to estimate direct and indirect costs of OAB. Prevalence and event probability estimates were obtained from the literature, national data sets, and expert opinion. Costs were estimated from a small survey using a cost questionnaire and from unit costs of King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. The annual cost of OAB in Thailand is estimated as 1.9 billion USD. It is estimated to consume 1.14% of national GDP The cost includes 0.33 billion USD for direct medical costs, 1.3 billion USD for direct, nonmedical costs and 0.29 billion USD for indirect costs of lost productivity. The largest costs category was direct treatment costs of comorbidities associated with OAB. Costs of OAB medication accountedfor 14% of the total costs ofOAB.

  11. Estimating the Costs of Preventive Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael; Porter, Michele M.; Ayers, Tim S.; Kaplan, Debra L.; Sandler, Irwin

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of cost estimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

  12. Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trivailo, O.; Sippel, M.; Şekercioğlu, Y. A.

    2012-08-01

    The primary purpose of this paper is to review currently existing cost estimation methods, models, tools and resources applicable to the space sector. While key space sector methods are outlined, a specific focus is placed on hardware cost estimation on a system level, particularly for early mission phases during which specifications and requirements are not yet crystallised, and information is limited. For the space industry, cost engineering within the systems engineering framework is an integral discipline. The cost of any space program now constitutes a stringent design criterion, which must be considered and carefully controlled during the entire program life cycle. A first step to any program budget is a representative cost estimate which usually hinges on a particular estimation approach, or methodology. Therefore appropriate selection of specific cost models, methods and tools is paramount, a difficult task given the highly variable nature, scope as well as scientific and technical requirements applicable to each program. Numerous methods, models and tools exist. However new ways are needed to address very early, pre-Phase 0 cost estimation during the initial program research and establishment phase when system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be established and defined. Due to their specificity, for vehicles such as reusable launchers with a manned capability, a lack of historical data implies that using either the classic heuristic approach such as parametric cost estimation based on underlying CERs, or the analogy approach, is therefore, by definition, limited. This review identifies prominent cost estimation models applied to the space sector, and their underlying cost driving parameters and factors. Strengths, weaknesses, and suitability to specific mission types and classes are also highlighted. Current approaches which strategically amalgamate various cost estimation strategies both for formulation and validation

  13. Study on the Development of Methodology for Cost Calculations and Financial Planning of Decommissioning Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-12-01

    The following study deals with the development of methodology for cost calculations and financial planning of decommissioning operations. It has been carried out by EDF / FRAMATOME / VUJE / SCK-CEN in the frame of the contract B7-032/2000/291058/MAR/C2 awarded by the European Commission. This study consists of 4 parts. The first task objective is to develop a reliable and transparent methodology for cost assessment and financial planning sufficient precise but without long and in depth investigations and studies. This methodology mainly contains: Calculation methods and algorithms for the elaboration of costs items making up the whole decommissioning cost. Estimated or standard values for the parameters and for the cost factors to be used in the above-mentioned algorithms Financial mechanism to be applied as to establish a financial planning. The second part task is the provision of standard values for the different parameters and costs factors described in the above-mentioned algorithms. This provision of data is based on the own various experience acquired by the members of the working team and on existing international references (databases, publications and reports). As decommissioning operations are spreading over several dozens of years, the scope of this task the description of the financial mechanisms to be applied to the different cost items as to establish a complete financial cost. It takes into account the financial schedule issued in task 1. The scope of this task consists in bringing together in a guideline all the information collected before: algorithms, data and financial mechanisms. (A.L.B.)

  14. Laser cost experience and estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shofner, F.M.; Hoglund, R.L.

    1977-01-01

    This report addresses the question of estimating the capital and operating costs for LIS (Laser Isotope Separation) lasers, which have performance requirements well beyond the state of mature art. This question is seen with different perspectives by political leaders, ERDA administrators, scientists, and engineers concerned with reducing LIS to economically successful commercial practice, on a timely basis. Accordingly, this report attempts to provide ''ballpark'' estimators for capital and operating costs and useful design and operating information for lasers based on mature technology, and their LIS analogs. It is written very basically and is intended to respond about equally to the perspectives of administrators, scientists, and engineers. Its major contributions are establishing the current, mature, industrialized laser track record (including capital and operating cost estimators, reliability, types of application, etc.) and, especially, evolution of generalized estimating procedures for capital and operating cost estimators for new laser design

  15. Project schedule and cost estimate report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-03-01

    All cost tables represent obligation dollars, at both a constant FY 1987 level and an estimated escalation level, and are based on the FY 1989 DOE Congressional Budget submittal of December 1987. The cost tables display the total UMTRA Project estimated costs, which include both Federal and state funding. The Total Estimated Cost (TEC) for the UMTRA Project is approximately $992.5 million (in 1987 escalated dollars). Project schedules have been developed that provide for Project completion by September 1994, subject to Congressional approval extending DOE's authorization under Public Law 95-604. The report contains site-specific demographic data, conceptual design assumptions, preliminary cost estimates, and site schedules. A general project overview is also presented, which includes a discussion of the basis for the schedule and cost estimates, contingency assumptions, work breakdown structure, and potential project risks. The schedules and cost estimates will be revised as necessary to reflect appropriate decisions relating to relocation of certain tailings piles, or other special design considerations or circumstances (such as revised EPA groundwater standards), and changes in the Project mission. 27 figs', 97 tabs

  16. An integrative cross-design synthesis approach to estimate the cost of illness: an applied case to the cost of depression in Catalonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendeck, Murielle; Serrano-Blanco, Antoni; García-Alonso, Carlos; Bonet, Pere; Jordà, Esther; Sabes-Figuera, Ramon; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

    2013-04-01

    Cost of illness (COI) studies are carried out under conditions of uncertainty and with incomplete information. There are concerns regarding their generalisability, accuracy and usability in evidence-informed care. A hybrid methodology is used to estimate the regional costs of depression in Catalonia (Spain) following an integrative approach. The cross-design synthesis included nominal groups and quantitative analysis of both top-down and bottom-up studies, and incorporated primary and secondary data from different sources of information in Catalonia. Sensitivity analysis used probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation modelling. A dissemination strategy was planned, including a standard form adapted from cost-effectiveness studies to summarise methods and results. The method used allows for a comprehensive estimate of the cost of depression in Catalonia. Health officers and decision-makers concluded that this methodology provided useful information and knowledge for evidence-informed planning in mental health. The mix of methods, combined with a simulation model, contributed to a reduction in data gaps and, in conditions of uncertainty, supplied more complete information on the costs of depression in Catalonia. This approach to COI should be differentiated from other COI designs to allow like-with-like comparisons. A consensus on COI typology, procedures and dissemination is needed.

  17. Cost-estimating relationships for space programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Cost-estimating relationships (CERs) are defined and discussed as they relate to the estimation of theoretical costs for space programs. The paper primarily addresses CERs based on analogous relationships between physical and performance parameters to estimate future costs. Analytical estimation principles are reviewed examining the sources of errors in cost models, and the use of CERs is shown to be affected by organizational culture. Two paradigms for cost estimation are set forth: (1) the Rand paradigm for single-culture single-system methods; and (2) the Price paradigms that incorporate a set of cultural variables. For space programs that are potentially subject to even small cultural changes, the Price paradigms are argued to be more effective. The derivation and use of accurate CERs is important for developing effective cost models to analyze the potential of a given space program.

  18. Cost-estimating for commercial digital printing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keif, Malcolm G.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to document current cost-estimating practices used in commercial digital printing. A research study was conducted to determine the use of cost-estimating in commercial digital printing companies. This study answers the questions: 1) What methods are currently being used to estimate digital printing? 2) What is the relationship between estimating and pricing digital printing? 3) To what extent, if at all, do digital printers use full-absorption, all-inclusive hourly rates for estimating? Three different digital printing models were identified: 1) Traditional print providers, who supplement their offset presswork with digital printing for short-run color and versioned commercial print; 2) "Low-touch" print providers, who leverage the power of the Internet to streamline business transactions with digital storefronts; 3) Marketing solutions providers, who see printing less as a discrete manufacturing process and more as a component of a complete marketing campaign. Each model approaches estimating differently. Understanding and predicting costs can be extremely beneficial. Establishing a reliable system to estimate those costs can be somewhat challenging though. Unquestionably, cost-estimating digital printing will increase in relevance in the years ahead, as margins tighten and cost knowledge becomes increasingly more critical.

  19. A practical approach for calculating reliable cost estimates from observational data: application to cost analyses in maternal and child health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salemi, Jason L; Comins, Meg M; Chandler, Kristen; Mogos, Mulubrhan F; Salihu, Hamisu M

    2013-08-01

    Comparative effectiveness research (CER) and cost-effectiveness analysis are valuable tools for informing health policy and clinical care decisions. Despite the increased availability of rich observational databases with economic measures, few researchers have the skills needed to conduct valid and reliable cost analyses for CER. The objectives of this paper are to (i) describe a practical approach for calculating cost estimates from hospital charges in discharge data using publicly available hospital cost reports, and (ii) assess the impact of using different methods for cost estimation in maternal and child health (MCH) studies by conducting economic analyses on gestational diabetes (GDM) and pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity. In Florida, we have constructed a clinically enhanced, longitudinal, encounter-level MCH database covering over 2.3 million infants (and their mothers) born alive from 1998 to 2009. Using this as a template, we describe a detailed methodology to use publicly available data to calculate hospital-wide and department-specific cost-to-charge ratios (CCRs), link them to the master database, and convert reported hospital charges to refined cost estimates. We then conduct an economic analysis as a case study on women by GDM and pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) status to compare the impact of using different methods on cost estimation. Over 60 % of inpatient charges for birth hospitalizations came from the nursery/labor/delivery units, which have very different cost-to-charge markups (CCR = 0.70) than the commonly substituted hospital average (CCR = 0.29). Using estimated mean, per-person maternal hospitalization costs for women with GDM as an example, unadjusted charges ($US14,696) grossly overestimated actual cost, compared with hospital-wide ($US3,498) and department-level ($US4,986) CCR adjustments. However, the refined cost estimation method, although more accurate, did not alter our conclusions that infant/maternal hospitalization costs

  20. Statistical methods of estimating mining costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K.R.

    2011-01-01

    Until it was defunded in 1995, the U.S. Bureau of Mines maintained a Cost Estimating System (CES) for prefeasibility-type economic evaluations of mineral deposits and estimating costs at producing and non-producing mines. This system had a significant role in mineral resource assessments to estimate costs of developing and operating known mineral deposits and predicted undiscovered deposits. For legal reasons, the U.S. Geological Survey cannot update and maintain CES. Instead, statistical tools are under development to estimate mining costs from basic properties of mineral deposits such as tonnage, grade, mineralogy, depth, strip ratio, distance from infrastructure, rock strength, and work index. The first step was to reestimate "Taylor's Rule" which relates operating rate to available ore tonnage. The second step was to estimate statistical models of capital and operating costs for open pit porphyry copper mines with flotation concentrators. For a sample of 27 proposed porphyry copper projects, capital costs can be estimated from three variables: mineral processing rate, strip ratio, and distance from nearest railroad before mine construction began. Of all the variables tested, operating costs were found to be significantly correlated only with strip ratio.

  1. Reliability/Cost Evaluation on Power System connected with Wind Power for the Reserve Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Go-Eun; Cha, Seung-Tae; Shin, Je-Seok

    2012-01-01

    Wind power is ideally a renewable energy with no fuel cost, but has a risk to reduce reliability of the whole system because of uncertainty of the output. If the reserve of the system is increased, the reliability of the system may be improved. However, the cost would be increased. Therefore...... the reserve needs to be estimated considering the trade-off between reliability and economic aspects. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate the appropriate reserve, when wind power is connected to the power system. As a case study, when wind power is connected to power system of Korea, the effects...

  2. Software cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemstra, F.J.

    1992-01-01

    The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

  3. Software cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemstra, F.J.; Heemstra, F.J.

    1993-01-01

    The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

  4. Estimating the costs of AECB regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-05-01

    An attempt is made to answer questions relating to the feasibility of determining costs imposed by regulatory activities of the Atomic Energy Control Board, and to provide a conceptual and methodological framework for an actual cost study of existing AECB requirments. (L.L.)

  5. NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

    2015-01-01

    The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

  6. Direct cost analysis of intensive care unit stay in four European countries: applying a standardized costing methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Siok Swan; Bakker, Jan; Hoogendoorn, Marga E; Kapila, Atul; Martin, Joerg; Pezzi, Angelo; Pittoni, Giovanni; Spronk, Peter E; Welte, Robert; Hakkaart-van Roijen, Leona

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to measure and compare the direct costs of intensive care unit (ICU) days at seven ICU departments in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom by means of a standardized costing methodology. A retrospective cost analysis of ICU patients was performed from the hospital's perspective. The standardized costing methodology was developed on the basis of the availability of data at the seven ICU departments. It entailed the application of the bottom-up approach for "hotel and nutrition" and the top-down approach for "diagnostics," "consumables," and "labor." Direct costs per ICU day ranged from €1168 to €2025. Even though the distribution of costs varied by cost component, labor was the most important cost driver at all departments. The costs for "labor" amounted to €1629 at department G but were fairly similar at the other departments (€711 ± 115). Direct costs of ICU days vary widely between the seven departments. Our standardized costing methodology could serve as a valuable instrument to compare actual cost differences, such as those resulting from differences in patient case-mix. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Parametric cost estimation for space science missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillie, Charles F.; Thompson, Bruce E.

    2008-07-01

    Cost estimation for space science missions is critically important in budgeting for successful missions. The process requires consideration of a number of parameters, where many of the values are only known to a limited accuracy. The results of cost estimation are not perfect, but must be calculated and compared with the estimates that the government uses for budgeting purposes. Uncertainties in the input parameters result from evolving requirements for missions that are typically the "first of a kind" with "state-of-the-art" instruments and new spacecraft and payload technologies that make it difficult to base estimates on the cost histories of previous missions. Even the cost of heritage avionics is uncertain due to parts obsolescence and the resulting redesign work. Through experience and use of industry best practices developed in participation with the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), Northrop Grumman has developed a parametric modeling approach that can provide a reasonably accurate cost range and most probable cost for future space missions. During the initial mission phases, the approach uses mass- and powerbased cost estimating relationships (CER)'s developed with historical data from previous missions. In later mission phases, when the mission requirements are better defined, these estimates are updated with vendor's bids and "bottoms- up", "grass-roots" material and labor cost estimates based on detailed schedules and assigned tasks. In this paper we describe how we develop our CER's for parametric cost estimation and how they can be applied to estimate the costs for future space science missions like those presented to the Astronomy & Astrophysics Decadal Survey Study Committees.

  8. Food irradiation : estimates of cost of processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krishnamurthy, K.; Bongirwar, D.R.

    1987-01-01

    For estimating the cost of food irradiation, three factors have to be taken into consideration. These are : (1) capital cost incurred on irradiation device and its installation, (2) recurring or running cost which includes maintenance cost and operational expenditure, and (3) product specific cost dependent on the factors specific to the food item to be processed, its storage, handling and distribution. A simple method is proposed to provide estimates of capital costs and running costs and it is applied to prepare a detailed estimate of costs for irradiation processing of onions and fish in India. The cost of processing onions worked out to be between Rs. 40 to 120 per 1000 Kg and for fish Rs 354 per 1000 Kg. These estimates do not take into account transparation costs and fluctuations in marketing procedures. (M.G.B.). 7 tables

  9. ICPP tank farm closure study. Volume III: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-02-01

    This volume contains information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the six options described in Volume 1, Section 2: Option 1 -- Total removal clean closure; No subsequent use; Option 2 -- Risk-based clean closure; LLW fill; Option 3 -- Risk-based clean closure; CERCLA fill; Option 4 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; LLW fill; Option 5 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; CERCLA fill; and Option 6 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; Clean fill. This volume is divided into two portions. The first portion contains the cost and planning schedule estimates while the second portion contains life-cycle costs and yearly cash flow information for each option

  10. Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Walter E.; Vanhook, Michael E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

  11. Estimating the cost of a smoking employee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Micah; Crane, Rob; Seiber, Eric; Munur, Mehmet

    2014-09-01

    We attempted to estimate the excess annual costs that a US private employer may attribute to employing an individual who smokes tobacco as compared to a non-smoking employee. Reviewing and synthesising previous literature estimating certain discrete costs associated with smoking employees, we developed a cost estimation approach that approximates the total of such costs for U.S. employers. We examined absenteeism, presenteesim, smoking breaks, healthcare costs and pension benefits for smokers. Our best estimate of the annual excess cost to employ a smoker is $5816. This estimate should be taken as a general indicator of the extent of excess costs, not as a predictive point value. Employees who smoke impose significant excess costs on private employers. The results of this study may help inform employer decisions about tobacco-related policies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  12. Application of low-cost methodologies for mobile phone app development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Melvyn; Cheow, Enquan; Ho, Cyrus Sh; Ng, Beng Yeong; Ho, Roger; Cheok, Christopher Cheng Soon

    2014-12-09

    The usage of mobile phones and mobile phone apps in the recent decade has indeed become more prevalent. Previous research has highlighted a method of using just the Internet browser and a text editor to create an app, but this does not eliminate the challenges faced by clinicians. More recently, two methodologies of app development have been shared, but there has not been any disclosures pertaining to the costs involved. In addition, limitations such as the distribution and dissemination of the apps have not been addressed. The aims of this research article are to: (1) highlight a low-cost methodology that clinicians without technical knowledge could use to develop educational apps; (2) clarify the respective costs involved in the process of development; (3) illustrate how limitations pertaining to dissemination could be addressed; and (4) to report initial utilization data of the apps and to share initial users' self-rated perception of the apps. In this study, we will present two techniques of how to create a mobile app using two of the well-established online mobile app building websites. The costs of development are specified and the methodology of dissemination of the apps will be shared. The application of the low-cost methodologies in the creation of the "Mastering Psychiatry" app for undergraduates and "Déjà vu" app for postgraduates will be discussed. A questionnaire survey has been administered to undergraduate students collating their perceptions towards the app. For the Mastering Psychiatry app, a cumulative total of 722 users have used the mobile app since inception, based on our analytics. For the Déjà vu app, there has been a cumulative total of 154 downloads since inception. The utilization data demonstrated the receptiveness towards these apps, and this is reinforced by the positive perceptions undergraduate students (n=185) had towards the low-cost self-developed apps. This is one of the few studies that have demonstrated the low-cost

  13. A time-driven, activity-based costing methodology for determining the costs of red blood cell transfusion in patients with beta thalassaemia major.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, K E; Haysom, H E; Higgins, A M; Waters, N; Tahiri, R; Rushford, K; Dunstan, T; Saxby, K; Kaplan, Z; Chunilal, S; McQuilten, Z K; Wood, E M

    2018-04-10

    To describe the methodology to estimate the total cost of administration of a single unit of red blood cells (RBC) in adults with beta thalassaemia major in an Australian specialist haemoglobinopathy centre. Beta thalassaemia major is a genetic disorder of haemoglobin associated with multiple end-organ complications and typically requiring lifelong RBC transfusion therapy. New therapeutic agents are becoming available based on advances in understanding of the disorder and its consequences. Assessment of the true total cost of transfusion, incorporating both product and activity costs, is required in order to evaluate the benefits and costs of these new therapies. We describe the bottom-up, time-driven, activity-based costing methodology used to develop process maps to provide a step-by-step outline of the entire transfusion pathway. Detailed flowcharts for each process are described. Direct observations and timing of the process maps document all activities, resources, staff, equipment and consumables in detail. The analysis will include costs associated with performing these processes, including resources and consumables. Sensitivity analyses will be performed to determine the impact of different staffing levels, timings and probabilities associated with performing different tasks. Thirty-one process maps have been developed, with over 600 individual activities requiring multiple timings. These will be used for future detailed cost analyses. Detailed process maps using bottom-up, time-driven, activity-based costing for determining the cost of RBC transfusion in thalassaemia major have been developed. These could be adapted for wider use to understand and compare the costs and complexities of transfusion in other settings. © 2018 British Blood Transfusion Society.

  14. Outer planet probe cost estimates: First impressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niehoff, J.

    1974-01-01

    An examination was made of early estimates of outer planetary atmospheric probe cost by comparing the estimates with past planetary projects. Of particular interest is identification of project elements which are likely cost drivers for future probe missions. Data are divided into two parts: first, the description of a cost model developed by SAI for the Planetary Programs Office of NASA, and second, use of this model and its data base to evaluate estimates of probe costs. Several observations are offered in conclusion regarding the credibility of current estimates and specific areas of the outer planet probe concept most vulnerable to cost escalation.

  15. Estimating the Cost of Care for Emergency Department Syncope Patients: Comparison of Three Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A. Probst

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: We sought to compare three hospital cost-estimation models for patients undergoing evaluation for unexplained syncope using hospital cost data. Developing such a model would allow researchers to assess the value of novel clinical algorithms for syncope management. Methods: We collected complete health services data, including disposition, testing, and length of stay (LOS, on 67 adult patients (age 60 years and older who presented to the emergency department (ED with syncope at a single hospital. Patients were excluded if a serious medical condition was identified. We created three hospital cost-estimation models to estimate facility costs: V1, unadjusted Medicare payments for observation and/or hospital admission; V2: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in calendar days; and V3: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in hours. Total hospital costs included unadjusted Medicare payments for diagnostic testing and estimated facility costs. We plotted these estimates against actual cost data from the hospital finance department, and performed correlation and regression analyses. Results: Of the three models, V3 consistently outperformed the others with regard to correlation and goodness of fit. The Pearson correlation coefficient for V3 was 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81, 0.92 with an R-square value of 0.77 and a linear regression coefficient of 0.87 (95% CI 0.76, 0.99. Conclusion: Using basic health services data, it is possible to accurately estimate hospital costs for older adults undergoing a hospital-based evaluation for unexplained syncope. This methodology could help assess the potential economic impact of implementing novel clinical algorithms for ED syncope. [West J Emerg Med. 2017;18(2253-257.

  16. How can activity-based costing methodology be performed as a powerful tool to calculate costs and secure appropriate patient care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Blossom Yen-Ju; Chao, Te-Hsin; Yao, Yuh; Tu, Shu-Min; Wu, Chun-Ching; Chern, Jin-Yuan; Chao, Shiu-Hsiung; Shaw, Keh-Yuong

    2007-04-01

    Previous studies have shown the advantages of using activity-based costing (ABC) methodology in the health care industry. The potential values of ABC methodology in health care are derived from the more accurate cost calculation compared to the traditional step-down costing, and the potentials to evaluate quality or effectiveness of health care based on health care activities. This project used ABC methodology to profile the cost structure of inpatients with surgical procedures at the Department of Colorectal Surgery in a public teaching hospital, and to identify the missing or inappropriate clinical procedures. We found that ABC methodology was able to accurately calculate costs and to identify several missing pre- and post-surgical nursing education activities in the course of treatment.

  17. Methodological Challenges in Estimating Trends and Burden of Cardiovascular Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob K. Kariuki

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Although 80% of the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD is in developing countries, the 2010 global burden of disease (GBD estimates have been cited to support a premise that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA is exempt from the CVD epidemic sweeping across developing countries. The widely publicized perspective influences research priorities and resource allocation at a time when secular trends indicate a rapid increase in prevalence of CVD in SSA by 2030. Purpose. To explore methodological challenges in estimating trends and burden of CVD in SSA via appraisal of the current CVD statistics and literature. Methods. This review was guided by the Critical review methodology described by Grant and Booth. The review traces the origins and evolution of GBD metrics and then explores the methodological limitations inherent in the current GBD statistics. Articles were included based on their conceptual contribution to the existing body of knowledge on the burden of CVD in SSA. Results/Conclusion. Cognizant of the methodological challenges discussed, we caution against extrapolation of the global burden of CVD statistics in a way that underrates the actual but uncertain impact of CVD in SSA. We conclude by making a case for optimal but cost-effective surveillance and prevention of CVD in SSA.

  18. Estimating the harms and costs of cannabis-attributable collisions in the Canadian provinces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wettlaufer, Ashley; Florica, Roxana O; Asbridge, Mark; Beirness, Douglas; Brubacher, Jeffrey; Callaghan, Russell; Fischer, Benedikt; Gmel, Gerrit; Imtiaz, Sameer; Mann, Robert E; McKiernan, Anna; Rehm, Jürgen

    2017-04-01

    In 2012, 10% of Canadians used cannabis and just under half of those who use cannabis were estimated to have driven under the influence of cannabis. Substantial evidence has accumulated to indicate that driving after cannabis use increases collision risk significantly; however, little is known about the extent and costs associated with cannabis-related traffic collisions. This study quantifies the costs of cannabis-related traffic collisions in the Canadian provinces. Province and age specific cannabis-attributable fractions (CAFs) were calculated for traffic collisions of varying severity. The CAFs were applied to traffic collision data in order to estimate the total number of persons involved in cannabis-attributable fatal, injury and property damage only collisions. Social cost values, based on willingness-to-pay and direct costs, were applied to estimate the costs associated with cannabis-related traffic collisions. The 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Monte Carlo methodology. Cannabis-attributable traffic collisions were estimated to have caused 75 deaths (95% CI: 0-213), 4407 injuries (95% CI: 20-11,549) and 7794 people (95% CI: 3107-13,086) were involved in property damage only collisions in Canada in 2012, totalling $1,094,972,062 (95% CI: 37,069,392-2,934,108,175) with costs being highest among younger people. The cannabis-attributable driving harms and costs are substantial. The harm and cost of cannabis-related collisions is an important factor to consider as Canada looks to legalize and regulate the sale of cannabis. This analysis provides evidence to help inform Canadian policy to reduce the human and economic costs of drug-impaired driving. Copyright © 2017 Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Annual national direct and indirect cost estimates of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh; Itria, Alexander; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Sartori, Ana Marli Christovam; Rama, Cristina Helena; de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil. METHODS: This cost description study used a "gross-costing" methodology and adopted the health system and societal perspectives. The estimates were grouped into sets of procedures performed in phases of cervical cancer care: the screening, diagnosis and treatment of precancerous lesions and the treatment of cervical cancer. The costs were estimated for the public and private health systems, using data from national health information systems, population surveys, and literature reviews. The cost estimates are presented in 2006 USD. RESULTS: From the societal perspective, the estimated total costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer amounted to USD $1,321,683,034, which was categorized as follows: procedures (USD $213,199,490), visits (USD $325,509,842), transportation (USD $106,521,537) and productivity losses (USD $676,452,166). Indirect costs represented 51% of the total costs, followed by direct medical costs (visits and procedures) at 41% and direct non-medical costs (transportation) at 8%. The public system represented 46% of the total costs, and the private system represented 54%. CONCLUSION: Our national cost estimates of cervical cancer prevention and treatment, indicating the economic importance of cervical cancer screening and care, will be useful in monitoring the effect of the HPV vaccine introduction and are of interest in research and health care management. PMID:26017797

  20. Estimating the cost of blood: past, present, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shander, Aryeh; Hofmann, Axel; Gombotz, Hans; Theusinger, Oliver M; Spahn, Donat R

    2007-06-01

    Understanding the costs associated with blood products requires sophisticated knowledge about transfusion medicine and is attracting the attention of clinical and administrative healthcare sectors worldwide. To improve outcomes, blood usage must be optimized and expenditures controlled so that resources may be channeled toward other diagnostic, therapeutic, and technological initiatives. Estimating blood costs, however, is a complex undertaking, surpassing simple supply versus demand economics. Shrinking donor availability and application of a precautionary principle to minimize transfusion risks are factors that continue to drive the cost of blood products upward. Recognizing that historical accounting attempts to determine blood costs have varied in scope, perspective, and methodology, new approaches have been initiated to identify all potential cost elements related to blood and blood product administration. Activities are also under way to tie these elements together in a comprehensive and practical model that will be applicable to all single-donor blood products without regard to practice type (e.g., academic, private, multi- or single-center clinic). These initiatives, their rationale, importance, and future directions are described.

  1. A review of costing methodologies in critical care studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pines, Jesse M; Fager, Samuel S; Milzman, David P

    2002-09-01

    Clinical decision making in critical care has traditionally been based on clinical outcome measures such as mortality and morbidity. Over the past few decades, however, increasing competition in the health care marketplace has made it necessary to consider costs when making clinical and managerial decisions in critical care. Sophisticated costing methodologies have been developed to aid this decision-making process. We performed a narrative review of published costing studies in critical care during the past 6 years. A total of 282 articles were found, of which 68 met our search criteria. They involved a mean of 508 patients (range, 20-13,907). A total of 92.6% of the studies (63 of 68) used traditional cost analysis, whereas the remaining 7.4% (5 of 68) used cost-effectiveness analysis. None (0 of 68) used cost-benefit analysis or cost-utility analysis. A total of 36.7% (25 of 68) used hospital charges as a surrogate for actual costs. Of the 43 articles that actually counted costs, 37.2% (16 of 43) counted physician costs, 27.9% (12 of 43) counted facility costs, 34.9% (15 of 43) counted nursing costs, 9.3% (4 of 43) counted societal costs, and 90.7% (39 of 43) counted laboratory, equipment, and pharmacy costs. Our conclusion is that despite considerable progress in costing methodologies, critical care studies have not adequately implemented these techniques. Given the importance of financial implications in medicine, it would be prudent for critical care studies to use these more advanced techniques. Copyright 2002, Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

  2. Cost-price estimation of clinical laboratory services based on activity-based costing: A case study from a developing country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouseli, Ali; Barouni, Mohsen; Amiresmaili, Mohammadreza; Samiee, Siamak Mirab; Vali, Leila

    2017-04-01

    It is believed that laboratory tariffs in Iran don't reflect the real costs. This might expose private laboratories at financial hardship. Activity Based Costing is widely used as a cost measurement instrument to more closely approximate the true cost of operations. This study aimed to determine the real price of different clinical tests of a selected private clinical laboratory. This study was a cross sectional study carried out in 2015. The study setting was the private laboratories in the city of Kerman, Iran. Of 629 tests in the tariff book of the laboratory (relative value), 188 tests were conducted in the laboratory that used Activity Based Costing (ABC) methodology to estimate cost-price. Analyzing and cost-price estimating of laboratory services were performed by MY ABCM software Version 5.0. In 2015, the total costs were $641,645. Direct and indirect costs were 78.3% and 21.7% respectively. Laboratory consumable costs by 37% and personnel costs by 36.3% had the largest share of the costing. Also, group of hormone tests cost the most $147,741 (23.03%), and other tests group cost the least $3,611 (0.56%). Also after calculating the cost of laboratory services, a comparison was made between the calculated price and the private sector's tariffs in 2015. This study showed that there was a difference between costs and tariffs in the private laboratory. One way to overcome this problem is to increase the number of laboratory tests with regard to capacity of the laboratories.

  3. A Simulation-Based Soft Error Estimation Methodology for Computer Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Sugihara, Makoto; Ishihara, Tohru; Hashimoto, Koji; Muroyama, Masanori

    2006-01-01

    This paper proposes a simulation-based soft error estimation methodology for computer systems. Accumulating soft error rates (SERs) of all memories in a computer system results in pessimistic soft error estimation. This is because memory cells are used spatially and temporally and not all soft errors in them make the computer system faulty. Our soft-error estimation methodology considers the locations and the timings of soft errors occurring at every level of memory hierarchy and estimates th...

  4. 18 CFR 301.7 - Average System Cost methodology functionalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Average System Cost... REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS FOR FEDERAL POWER MARKETING ADMINISTRATIONS AVERAGE SYSTEM COST METHODOLOGY FOR SALES FROM UTILITIES TO BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION UNDER NORTHWEST POWER...

  5. Towards Greater Harmonisation of Decommissioning Cost Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Laraia, Michele; ); LaGuardia, Thomas S.

    2010-01-01

    The NEA Decommissioning Cost Estimation Group (DCEG), in collaboration with the IAEA Waste Technology Section and the EC Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, has recently studied cost estimation practices in 12 countries - Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. Its findings are to be published in an OECD/NEA report entitled Cost Estimation for Decommissioning: An International Overview of Cost Elements, Estimation Practices and Reporting Requirements. This booklet highlights the findings contained in the full report. (authors)

  6. A cost effective waste management methodology for power reactor waste streams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granus, M.W.; Campbell, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    This paper describes a computer based methodology for the selection of the processing methods (solidification/dewatering) for various power reactor radwaste streams. The purpose of this methodology is to best select the method that provides the most cost effective solution to waste management. This method takes into account the overall cost of processing, transportation and disposal. The selection matrix on which the methodology is based is made up of over ten thousand combinations of liner, cask, process, and disposal options from which the waste manager can choose. The measurement device for cost effective waste management is the concurrent evaluation of total dollars spent. The common denominator is dollars per cubic foot of the input waste stream. Dollars per curie of the input waste stream provides for proper checks and balances. The result of this analysis can then be used to assess the total waste management cost. To this end, the methodology can then be employed to predict a given number of events (processes, transportation, and disposals) and project the annual cost of waste management. For the purposes of this paper, the authors provide examples of the application of the methodology on a typical BWR at 2, 4 and 6 years. The examples are provided in 1984 dollars. Process selection is influenced by a number of factors which must be independently evaluated for each waste stream. Final processing cost is effected by the particular process efficiency and a variety of regulatory constraints. The interface between process selection and cask selection/transportation driven by the goal of placing the greatest amount of pre-processed waste in the package and remaining within the bounds of weight, volume, regulatory, and cask availability limitations. Disposal is the cost of burial and can be affected by disposal, but availability of burial space, and the location of the disposal site in relation to the generator

  7. Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Pauw, W Pieter; Brander, Luke M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Strzepek, Kenneth M; Hughes, Gordon A

    2010-01-01

    Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a limited number of adaptation strategies, and apply the method using results of two climate models. In this paper, adaptation costs are defined as those for providing enough raw water to meet future industrial and municipal water demand, based on country-level demand projections to 2050. We first estimate costs for a baseline scenario excluding climate change, and then additional climate change adaptation costs. Increased demand is assumed to be met through a combination of increased reservoir yield and alternative backstop measures. Under such controversial measures, we project global adaptation costs of $12 bn p.a., with 83-90% in developing countries; the highest costs are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, adaptation costs are low compared to baseline costs ($73 bn p.a.), which supports the notion of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into broader policy aims. The method provides a tool for estimating broad costs at the global and regional scale; such information is of key importance in international negotiations.

  8. Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ward, Philip J; Pauw, W Pieter; Brander, Luke M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H [Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam (Netherlands); Strzepek, Kenneth M [Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MA (United States); Hughes, Gordon A, E-mail: philip.ward@ivm.vu.nl [School of Economics, University of Edinburgh (United Kingdom)

    2010-10-15

    Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a limited number of adaptation strategies, and apply the method using results of two climate models. In this paper, adaptation costs are defined as those for providing enough raw water to meet future industrial and municipal water demand, based on country-level demand projections to 2050. We first estimate costs for a baseline scenario excluding climate change, and then additional climate change adaptation costs. Increased demand is assumed to be met through a combination of increased reservoir yield and alternative backstop measures. Under such controversial measures, we project global adaptation costs of $12 bn p.a., with 83-90% in developing countries; the highest costs are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, adaptation costs are low compared to baseline costs ($73 bn p.a.), which supports the notion of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into broader policy aims. The method provides a tool for estimating broad costs at the global and regional scale; such information is of key importance in international negotiations.

  9. Preliminary cost estimating for the nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klumpar, I.V.; Soltz, K.M.

    1985-01-01

    The nuclear industry has higher costs for personnel, equipment, construction, and engineering than conventional industry, which means that cost estimation procedures may need adjustment. The authors account for the special technical and labor requirements of the nuclear industry in making adjustments to equipment and installation cost estimations. Using illustrative examples, they show that conventional methods of preliminary cost estimation are flexible enough for application to emerging industries if their cost structure is similar to that of the process industries. If not, modifications can provide enough engineering and cost data for a statistical analysis. 9 references, 14 figures, 4 tables

  10. Cost estimating for large nuclear projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duggal, A.; Hunt, M.

    2004-01-01

    In today's market, the generation of electricity is a very competitive business, which is constantly under the watchful eye of the media and public. Nuclear power faces a lot of competition from other sources such as hydro, coal and gas. Controlling costs, monitoring costs, feedback, industry knowledge and up to date cost estimating tools are essential for a nuclear company to compete on a long term basis. This paper reviews the terminology and estimating principles used for the construction of new nuclear plants, lifetime operating costs, and the costs associated with refurbishment work. (author)

  11. Software Cost-Estimation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tausworthe, R. C.

    1985-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation Model SOFTCOST provides automated resource and schedule model for software development. Combines several cost models found in open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms. Compensates for nearly fifty implementation factors relative to size of task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment and difficulty of task.

  12. Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation in transport: A review of methodological approaches and their impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kok, Robert; Annema, Jan Anne; Wee, Bert van

    2011-01-01

    A review is given of methodological practices for ex ante cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of transport greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures, e.g. fuel economy and CO 2 standards for road vehicles in the US and EU. Besides the fundamental differences between different types of policies and abatement options which inherently result in different CEA outcomes, differences in methodological choices and assumptions are another important source of variation in CEA outcomes. Fourteen methodological issues clustered into six groups are identified on which thirty-three selected studies are systematically reviewed. The potential variation between lower and upper cost-effectiveness estimates for GHG mitigation measures in transport, resulting from different methodological choices and assumptions, lies in the order of $400 per tonne CO 2 -eq. The practise of using CEA for policy-making could improve considerably by clearly indicating the specific purpose of the CEA and its strengths and limitations for policy decisions. Another improvement is related to the dominant approach in transport GHG mitigation studies: the bottom-up financial technical approach which assesses isolated effects, implying considerable limitations for policy-making. A shift to welfare-economic approaches using a hybrid model has the potential to establish an improved assessment of transport GHG mitigation measures based on realistic market responses and behavioural change. - Highlights: ► We identify fourteen important methodological issues clustered into six groups. ► We systematically review thirty-three selected transport GHG mitigation studies. ► Methodological choices can lead to a difference by up to $400 per tonne CO 2 -eq. ► The dominant bottom-up approach has limitations for policy-making. ► Welfare-economic approaches could improve cost-effectiveness analysis.

  13. Derivation of the mass factors for decommissioning cost estimation of low contaminated auxiliary systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poskas, G.

    2015-01-01

    Ignalina NPP was operating two RBMK-1500 reactors. Unit 1 was closed at the end of 2004, and Unit 2 - at the end of 2009. Now they are under decommissioning. Decommissioning has been started from the reactor's periphery, with dismantling of non-contaminated and low contaminated equipment and installations. This paper discusses a methodology for derivation of mass factors for preliminary decommissioning costing at NPP when the number of inventory items is significant, and separate consideration of each inventory item is impossible or impractical for preliminary decommissioning plan, especially when the level of radioactive contamination is very low. The methodology is based on detailed data analysis of building V1 taking into account period and inventory based activities, investment and consumables and other decommissioning approach- related properties for building average mass factors. The methodology can be used for cost estimation of preliminary decommissioning planning of NPP auxiliary buildings with mostly very low level contamination. (authors)

  14. Ancillary reactive power service allocation cost in deregulated markets: a methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez, J. Horacio Tovar; Jimenez-Guzman, Miguel; Gutierrez-Alcaraz, Guillermo

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to allocate reactive power costs in deregulated markets. Reactive power supply service is decomposed into voltage regulation and reactive power spinning reserve. The proposed methodology is based on sensitivities and the postage-stamp method in order to allocate the total costs service among all participants. With the purpose of achieving this goal, the system operator identifies voltage support and/or reactive power requirements, and looks out for suitable providers. One case study is presented here to illustrate the methodology over a simplified southeastern Mexican grid. (Author)

  15. 28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., quantity, and cost. (ii) Direct labor. Provide a time-phased (e.g., monthly, quarterly) breakdown of labor... estimates. (iii) Allocable direct costs. Indicate how allocable costs are computed and applied, including... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cost estimate submission. 100.16 Section...

  16. A KBE genetic-causal cost modelling methodology for manufacturing cost contingency management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Curran, R.; Gilmour, M.; McAlleean, C.; Kelly, P.

    2009-01-01

    The paper provides validated evidence of a robust methodology for the management of lean manufacturing cost contingency, with a particular focus on contingency regarding recurring work content. A truly concurrent engineering process is established by capturing a range of knowledge from the design,

  17. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-02-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

  18. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

  19. Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ball, J.R.

    1986-04-01

    This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided.

  20. Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.R.

    1986-04-01

    This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided

  1. Proposed Reliability/Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1982-01-01

    New technique estimates cost of improvement in reliability for complex system. Model format/approach is dependent upon use of subsystem cost-estimating relationships (CER's) in devising cost-effective policy. Proposed methodology should have application in broad range of engineering management decisions.

  2. Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

    1994-03-01

    This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs

  3. Assuring Software Cost Estimates: Is it an Oxymoron?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jarius; Tregre, Grant

    2013-01-01

    The software industry repeatedly observes cost growth of well over 100% even after decades of cost estimation research and well-known best practices, so "What's the problem?" In this paper we will provide an overview of the current state oj software cost estimation best practice. We then explore whether applying some of the methods used in software assurance might improve the quality of software cost estimates. This paper especially focuses on issues associated with model calibration, estimate review, and the development and documentation of estimates as part alan integrated plan.

  4. Estimated generic prices of cancer medicines deemed cost-ineffective in England: a cost estimation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andrew; Redd, Christopher; Gotham, Dzintars; Erbacher, Isabelle; Meldrum, Jonathan; Harada, Ryo

    2017-01-20

    The aim of this study was to estimate lowest possible treatment costs for four novel cancer drugs, hypothesising that generic manufacturing could significantly reduce treatment costs. This research was carried out in a non-clinical research setting using secondary data. There were no human participants in the study. Four drugs were selected for the study: bortezomib, dasatinib, everolimus and gefitinib. These medications were selected according to their clinical importance, novel pharmaceutical actions and the availability of generic price data. Target costs for treatment were to be generated for each indication for each treatment. The primary outcome measure was the target cost according to a production cost calculation algorithm. The secondary outcome measure was the target cost as the lowest available generic price; this was necessary where export data were not available to generate an estimate from our cost calculation algorithm. Other outcomes included patent expiry dates and total eligible treatment populations. Target prices were £411 per cycle for bortezomib, £9 per month for dasatinib, £852 per month for everolimus and £10 per month for gefitinib. Compared with current list prices in England, these target prices would represent reductions of 74-99.6%. Patent expiry dates were bortezomib 2014-22, dasatinib 2020-26, everolimus 2019-25 and gefitinib 2017. The total global eligible treatment population in 1 year is 769 736. Our findings demonstrate that affordable drug treatment costs are possible for novel cancer drugs, suggesting that new therapeutic options can be made available to patients and doctors worldwide. Assessing treatment cost estimations alongside cost-effectiveness evaluations is an important area of future research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  5. Stand-alone flat-plate photovoltaic power systems: System sizing and life-cycle costing methodology for Federal agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borden, C. S.; Volkmer, K.; Cochrane, E. H.; Lawson, A. C.

    1984-01-01

    A simple methodology to estimate photovoltaic system size and life-cycle costs in stand-alone applications is presented. It is designed to assist engineers at Government agencies in determining the feasibility of using small stand-alone photovoltaic systems to supply ac or dc power to the load. Photovoltaic system design considerations are presented as well as the equations for sizing the flat-plate array and the battery storage to meet the required load. Cost effectiveness of a candidate photovoltaic system is based on comparison with the life-cycle cost of alternative systems. Examples of alternative systems addressed are batteries, diesel generators, the utility grid, and other renewable energy systems.

  6. Nuclear power plant cost underestimation: mechanisms and corrections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, M.B.

    1984-01-01

    Criticisms of inaccurate nuclear power plant cost estimates have commonly focused upon what factors have caused actual costs to increase and not upon the engineering cost estimate methodology itself. This article describes two major sources of cost underestimation and suggests corrections for each which can be applied while retaining the traditional engineering methodology in general

  7. Collider Scaling and Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, R.B.

    1986-01-01

    This paper deals with collider cost and scaling. The main points of the discussion are the following ones: 1) scaling laws and cost estimation: accelerating gradient requirements, total stored RF energy considerations, peak power consideration, average power consumption; 2) cost optimization; 3) Bremsstrahlung considerations; 4) Focusing optics: conventional, laser focusing or super disruption. 13 refs

  8. A methodology for spacecraft technology insertion analysis balancing benefit, cost, and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bearden, David Allen

    Emerging technologies are changing the way space missions are developed and implemented. Technology development programs are proceeding with the goal of enhancing spacecraft performance and reducing mass and cost. However, it is often the case that technology insertion assessment activities, in the interest of maximizing performance and/or mass reduction, do not consider synergistic system-level effects. Furthermore, even though technical risks are often identified as a large cost and schedule driver, many design processes ignore effects of cost and schedule uncertainty. This research is based on the hypothesis that technology selection is a problem of balancing interrelated (and potentially competing) objectives. Current spacecraft technology selection approaches are summarized, and a Methodology for Evaluating and Ranking Insertion of Technology (MERIT) that expands on these practices to attack otherwise unsolved problems is demonstrated. MERIT combines the modern techniques of technology maturity measures, parametric models, genetic algorithms, and risk assessment (cost and schedule) in a unique manner to resolve very difficult issues including: user-generated uncertainty, relationships between cost/schedule and complexity, and technology "portfolio" management. While the methodology is sufficiently generic that it may in theory be applied to a number of technology insertion problems, this research focuses on application to the specific case of small (<500 kg) satellite design. Small satellite missions are of particular interest because they are often developed under rigid programmatic (cost and schedule) constraints and are motivated to introduce advanced technologies into the design. MERIT is demonstrated for programs procured under varying conditions and constraints such as stringent performance goals, not-to-exceed costs, or hard schedule requirements. MERIT'S contributions to the engineering community are its: unique coupling of the aspects of performance

  9. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, Serge; Descures, Sylvain; Du Pasquier, Louis; Francois, Patrice; Buonarotti, Stefano; Mariotti, Giovanni; Tarakonov, Jurij; Daniska, Vladimir; Bergh, Niklas; Carroll, Simon; AaSTRoeM, Annika; Cato, Anna; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Rodriguez, Jose; Laird, Alastair; Ridpath, Andy; La Guardia, Thomas; O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Weber, Inge; )

    2017-01-01

    The cost estimation process of decommissioning nuclear facilities has continued to evolve in recent years, with a general trend towards demonstrating greater levels of detail in the estimate and more explicit consideration of uncertainties, the latter of which may have an impact on decommissioning project costs. The 2012 report on the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) of Nuclear Installations, a joint recommendation by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Commission, proposes a standardised structure of cost items for decommissioning projects that can be used either directly for the production of cost estimates or for mapping of cost items for benchmarking purposes. The ISDC, however, provides only limited guidance on the treatment of uncertainty when preparing cost estimates. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities, prepared jointly by the NEA and IAEA, is intended to complement the ISDC, assisting cost estimators and reviewers in systematically addressing uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimates. Based on experiences gained in participating countries and projects, the report describes how uncertainty and risks can be analysed and incorporated in decommissioning cost estimates, while presenting the outcomes in a transparent manner

  10. Costs of regulatory compliance: categories and estimating techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulte, S.C.; McDonald, C.L.; Wood, M.T.; Cole, R.M.; Hauschulz, K.

    1978-10-01

    Use of the categorization scheme and cost estimating approaches presented in this report can make cost estimates of regulation required compliance activities of value to policy makers. The report describes a uniform assessment framework that when used would assure that cost studies are generated on an equivalent basis. Such normalization would make comparisons of different compliance activity cost estimates more meaningful, thus enabling the relative merits of different regulatory options to be more effectively judged. The framework establishes uniform cost reporting accounts and cost estimating approaches for use in assessing the costs of complying with regulatory actions. The framework was specifically developed for use in a current study at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. However, use of the procedures for other applications is also appropriate

  11. An Analytical Cost Estimation Procedure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jayachandran, Toke

    1999-01-01

    Analytical procedures that can be used to do a sensitivity analysis of a cost estimate, and to perform tradeoffs to identify input values that can reduce the total cost of a project, are described in the report...

  12. Advanced fuel cycle cost estimation model and its cost estimation results for three nuclear fuel cycles using a dynamic model in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sungki, E-mail: sgkim1@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Ko, Wonil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Youn, Saerom; Gao, Ruxing [University of Science and Technology, 217 Gajungro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-350 (Korea, Republic of); Bang, Sungsig, E-mail: ssbang@kaist.ac.kr [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Business and Technology Management, 291 Deahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • The nuclear fuel cycle cost using a new cost estimation model was analyzed. • The material flows of three nuclear fuel cycle options were calculated. • The generation cost of once-through was estimated to be 66.88 mills/kW h. • The generation cost of pyro-SFR recycling was estimated to be 78.06 mills/kW h. • The reactor cost was identified as the main cost driver of pyro-SFR recycling. - Abstract: The present study analyzes advanced nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation models such as the different discount rate model and its cost estimation results. To do so, an analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle cost of three options (direct disposal (once through), PWR–MOX (Mixed OXide fuel), and Pyro-SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor)) from the viewpoint of economic sense, focusing on the cost estimation model, was conducted using a dynamic model. From an analysis of the fuel cycle cost estimation results, it was found that some cost gap exists between the traditional same discount rate model and the advanced different discount rate model. However, this gap does not change the priority of the nuclear fuel cycle option from the viewpoint of economics. In addition, the fuel cycle costs of OT (Once-Through) and Pyro-SFR recycling based on the most likely value using a probabilistic cost estimation except for reactor costs were calculated to be 8.75 mills/kW h and 8.30 mills/kW h, respectively. Namely, the Pyro-SFR recycling option was more economical than the direct disposal option. However, if the reactor cost is considered, the economic sense in the generation cost between the two options (direct disposal vs. Pyro-SFR recycling) can be changed because of the high reactor cost of an SFR.

  13. Parametric Cost Estimates for an International Competitive Edge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, L.T.; Hickey, M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper summarizes the progress to date by CH2M HILL and the UKAEA in development of a parametric modelling capability for estimating the costs of large nuclear decommissioning projects in the United Kingdom (UK) and Europe. The ability to successfully apply parametric cost estimating techniques will be a key factor to commercial success in the UK and European multi-billion dollar waste management, decommissioning and environmental restoration markets. The most useful parametric models will be those that incorporate individual components representing major elements of work: reactor decommissioning, fuel cycle facility decommissioning, waste management facility decommissioning and environmental restoration. Models must be sufficiently robust to estimate indirect costs and overheads, permit pricing analysis and adjustment, and accommodate the intricacies of international monetary exchange, currency fluctuations and contingency. The development of a parametric cost estimating capability is also a key component in building a forward estimating strategy. The forward estimating strategy will enable the preparation of accurate and cost-effective out-year estimates, even when work scope is poorly defined or as yet indeterminate. Preparation of cost estimates for work outside the organizations current sites, for which detailed measurement is not possible and historical cost data does not exist, will also be facilitated. (authors)

  14. PRAGMATICS OF USING A MODIFIED CAPM MODEL FOR ESTIMATING COST OF EQUITY ON EMERGING MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitaliy Semenyuk

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the work is to forming pragmatic recommendations for the development and implementation the modified CAPM model in the process of estimating the equity value on emerging markets. Original CAPM model allows estimating the cost of equity on the developed capital markets. At the same time it requires the information received on the market data basis. But, as show recent empirical research, the classical model does not always produce acceptable results of the equity estimation. In addition, CAPM model in its classical form can’t be used to estimate the cost of equity for countries with emerging markets. This is due with lower efficiency in emerging markets, with lower level of liquidity and capitalization, which makes the information obtained from these markets not entirely reliable. Therefore in practice are increasingly using different modification CAPM models, that allow consider for more specific factors which affect the cost of equity. These factors, which are not considered in the classical CAPM model, include the size of the corporation and country risk. The first factor is actual for developed and emerging markets and needed to account during the equity estimation and modification the CAPM model. Country risk is associated with differences and peculiarities of the economies different countries and in the first place should be taken into account when estimating the cost of equity in emerging capital markets, which are considered by investors as more risky for investment. This factor should also be taken into account in estimating the cost of equity. Methodology In the process of constructing a modified CAPM model, theoretical and methodological provisions were used, which are set out in the work R. Banz, G. Bekaert, M. Goedhart, R. Grabowski, R. Grinold, D. Vessels, A. Damodaran, M. Dempsey, J. Zhang, R. Ibbotson, P. Kaplan, T. Koller, K. Kroner, L. Kruschwitz, M. Long, A. Lofler, G. Mandl, M. Miller, F. Modilyani, K. Nunes, D

  15. Estimation of optimal educational cost per medical student.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Eunbae B; Lee, Seunghee

    2009-09-01

    This study aims to estimate the optimal educational cost per medical student. A private medical college in Seoul was targeted by the study, and its 2006 learning environment and data from the 2003~2006 budget and settlement were carefully analyzed. Through interviews with 3 medical professors and 2 experts in the economics of education, the study attempted to establish the educational cost estimation model, which yields an empirically computed estimate of the optimal cost per student in medical college. The estimation model was based primarily upon the educational cost which consisted of direct educational costs (47.25%), support costs (36.44%), fixed asset purchases (11.18%) and costs for student affairs (5.14%). These results indicate that the optimal cost per student is approximately 20,367,000 won each semester; thus, training a doctor costs 162,936,000 won over 4 years. Consequently, we inferred that the tuition levels of a local medical college or professional medical graduate school cover one quarter or one-half of the per- student cost. The findings of this study do not necessarily imply an increase in medical college tuition; the estimation of the per-student cost for training to be a doctor is one matter, and the issue of who should bear this burden is another. For further study, we should consider the college type and its location for general application of the estimation method, in addition to living expenses and opportunity costs.

  16. Full cost accounting in the analysis of separated waste collection efficiency: A methodological proposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Onza, Giuseppe; Greco, Giulio; Allegrini, Marco

    2016-02-01

    Recycling implies additional costs for separated municipal solid waste (MSW) collection. The aim of the present study is to propose and implement a management tool - the full cost accounting (FCA) method - to calculate the full collection costs of different types of waste. Our analysis aims for a better understanding of the difficulties of putting FCA into practice in the MSW sector. We propose a FCA methodology that uses standard cost and actual quantities to calculate the collection costs of separate and undifferentiated waste. Our methodology allows cost efficiency analysis and benchmarking, overcoming problems related to firm-specific accounting choices, earnings management policies and purchase policies. Our methodology allows benchmarking and variance analysis that can be used to identify the causes of off-standards performance and guide managers to deploy resources more efficiently. Our methodology can be implemented by companies lacking a sophisticated management accounting system. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Residential outage cost estimation: Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Shiu, A.; Cheng, Y.S.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

    2014-01-01

    Hong Kong has almost perfect electricity reliability, the result of substantial investments ultimately financed by electricity consumers who may be willing to accept lower reliability in exchange for lower bills. But consumers with high outage costs are likely to reject the reliability reduction. Our ordered-logit regression analysis of the responses by 1876 households to a telephone survey conducted in June 2013 indicates that Hong Kong residents exhibit a statistically-significant preference for their existing service reliability and rate. Moreover, the average residential cost estimate for a 1-h outage is US$45 (HK$350), topping the estimates reported in 10 of the 11 studies published in the last 10 years. The policy implication is that absent additional compelling evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its service reliability. - Highlights: • Use a contingent valuation survey to obtain residential preferences for reliability. • Use an ordered logit analysis to estimate Hong Kong's residential outage costs. • Find high outage cost estimates that imply high reliability requirements. • Conclude that sans new evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its reliability

  18. Advanced Composite Air Frame Life Cycle Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-19

    the ACCA based on the cost . This cost analysis takes into account the increased performance parameters of the new airframe structure. This research...20 Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft ( ACCA ) ..........................................................23 viii Cost Estimation...establishing the procurement strategies and life cycle cost (LCC) model cost estimations. The current LCC models do not take into account the potential cost

  19. Establishing a cost model when estimating product cost in early design phases

    OpenAIRE

    Jeppsson, Johanna; Sjöberg, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    About 75% of the total product cost is determined in the early design phase, which means that the possibilities to affect costs are relatively small when the design phase is completed. For companies, it is therefore vital to conduct reliable cost estimates in the early design phase, when selecting between different design choices. When conducting a cost estimate there are many uncertainties. The aim with this study is therefore to explore how uncertainties regarding product cost can be consid...

  20. Methodology for completing Hanford 200 Area tank waste physical/chemical profile estimations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruger, A.A.

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of the Methodology for Completing Hanford 200 Area Tank Waste Physical/Chemical Profile Estimations is to capture the logic inherent to completing 200 Area waste tank physical and chemical profile estimates. Since there has been good correlation between the estimate profiles and actual conditions during sampling and sub-segment analysis, it is worthwhile to document the current estimate methodology

  1. Development of a new methodology of cost estimation and investment in the coal opencast mining sector in Spain. Desarrollo de una neuva metodologia de estimacion de costes e inversiones en el sector de la mineria a cielo abierto de carbon en Espana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orche Garcia, E.

    1992-01-01

    A double methodology of costs evaluation and investments is shown for open pit coal exploitations mined by drilling and blasting and/or ripping and annual productions between 0.5 and 8 millions m[sup 3] of waste and up to 700,000 tb of coal operated with conventional machines. The costs methodology has been made starting from 31 data of Spanish projects and exploitations. The investment methodology was made essentially on the basis of theoretical assumptions. The reckoned costs and investment have an accuracy of [+-]20%. The methodology of costs evaluation provides the total final cost of the ton of saleable coal. 35 figs., 86 tabs.

  2. Guidelines for estimating nuclear power plant decommissioning costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaGuardia, T.S.; Williams, D.H.

    1989-01-01

    The objectives of the study were: (1) To develop guidelines to facilitate estimating the cost of nuclear power plant decommissioning alternatives on a plant-specific basis and to facilitate comparing estimates made by others. The guidelines are expressed in a form that could be readily adapted by technical specialists from individual utilities or by other uses. (2) To enhance the industry's credibility with decision-makes at the state and federal levels during rate/regulatory processes involving decommissioning costs. This is accomplished by providing a detailed, systematic breakdown of how decommissioning cost estimates are prepared. (3) To increase the validity, realism, and accuracy of site-specific decommissioning cost estimates. This is accomplished by pulling together the experiences and practices of several nuclear utilities and consultants in conducting past decommissioning cost estimates

  3. Cost analysis and estimating tools and techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Nussbaum, Daniel

    1990-01-01

    Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat­ ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap­ proaches to estimating costs are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug­ mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective­ ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli­ cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES),...

  4. The cost of Alzheimer's disease in China and re-estimation of costs worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jianping; Wei, Cuibai; Chen, Shuoqi; Li, Fangyu; Tang, Yi; Qin, Wei; Zhao, Lina; Jin, Hongmei; Xu, Hui; Wang, Fen; Zhou, Aihong; Zuo, Xiumei; Wu, Liyong; Han, Ying; Han, Yue; Huang, Liyuan; Wang, Qi; Li, Dan; Chu, Changbiao; Shi, Lu; Gong, Min; Du, Yifeng; Zhang, Jiewen; Zhang, Junjian; Zhou, Chunkui; Lv, Jihui; Lv, Yang; Xie, Haiqun; Ji, Yong; Li, Fang; Yu, Enyan; Luo, Benyan; Wang, Yanjiang; Yang, Shanshan; Qu, Qiumin; Guo, Qihao; Liang, Furu; Zhang, Jintao; Tan, Lan; Shen, Lu; Zhang, Kunnan; Zhang, Jinbiao; Peng, Dantao; Tang, Muni; Lv, Peiyuan; Fang, Boyan; Chu, Lan; Jia, Longfei; Gauthier, Serge

    2018-04-01

    The socioeconomic costs of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in China and its impact on global economic burden remain uncertain. We collected data from 3098 patients with AD in 81 representative centers across China and estimated AD costs for individual patient and total patients in China in 2015. Based on this data, we re-estimated the worldwide costs of AD. The annual socioeconomic cost per patient was US $19,144.36, and total costs were US $167.74 billion in 2015. The annual total costs are predicted to reach US $507.49 billion in 2030 and US $1.89 trillion in 2050. Based on our results, the global estimates of costs for dementia were US $957.56 billion in 2015, and will be US $2.54 trillion in 2030, and US $9.12 trillion in 2050, much more than the predictions by the World Alzheimer Report 2015. China bears a heavy burden of AD costs, which greatly change the estimates of AD cost worldwide. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Estimating the costs of human space exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

    1994-01-01

    The plan for NASA's new exploration initiative has the following strategic themes: (1) incremental, logical evolutionary development; (2) economic viability; and (3) excellence in management. The cost estimation process is involved with all of these themes and they are completely dependent upon the engineering cost estimator for success. The purpose is to articulate the issues associated with beginning this major new government initiative, to show how NASA intends to resolve them, and finally to demonstrate the vital importance of a leadership role by the cost estimation community.

  6. Implementation of the cost-optimal methodology according to the EPBD recast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wittchen, Kim Bjarne; Thomsen, Kirsten Engelund

    2012-01-01

    The EPBD recast states that Member States (MS) must ensure that minimum energy performance requirements for buildings are set “with a view to achieving cost-optimal levels”. The costoptimal level must be calculated in accordance with a comparative methodology.......The EPBD recast states that Member States (MS) must ensure that minimum energy performance requirements for buildings are set “with a view to achieving cost-optimal levels”. The costoptimal level must be calculated in accordance with a comparative methodology....

  7. Methodology for estimating biomass energy potential and its application to Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Salazar, Miguel Angel; Morini, Mirko; Pinelli, Michele; Spina, Pier Ruggero; Venturini, Mauro; Finkenrath, Matthias; Poganietz, Witold-Roger

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Methodology to estimate the biomass energy potential and its uncertainty at a country level. • Harmonization of approaches and assumptions in existing assessment studies. • The theoretical and technical biomass energy potential in Colombia are estimated in 2010. - Abstract: This paper presents a methodology to estimate the biomass energy potential and its associated uncertainty at a country level when quality and availability of data are limited. The current biomass energy potential in Colombia is assessed following the proposed methodology and results are compared to existing assessment studies. The proposed methodology is a bottom-up resource-focused approach with statistical analysis that uses a Monte Carlo algorithm to stochastically estimate the theoretical and the technical biomass energy potential. The paper also includes a proposed approach to quantify uncertainty combining a probabilistic propagation of uncertainty, a sensitivity analysis and a set of disaggregated sub-models to estimate reliability of predictions and reduce the associated uncertainty. Results predict a theoretical energy potential of 0.744 EJ and a technical potential of 0.059 EJ in 2010, which might account for 1.2% of the annual primary energy production (4.93 EJ)

  8. Handbook for cost estimating. A method for developing estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.R.; Cohen, S.; Ziegler, E.Z.

    1984-10-01

    This document provides overall guidance to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required by the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines and to assist in the assignment of priorities in resolving generic safety issues. The Handbook presents an overall cost model that allows the cost analyst to develop a chronological series of activities needed to implement a specific regulatory requirement throughout all applicable commercial LWR power plants and to identify the significant cost elements for each activity. References to available cost data are provided along with rules of thumb and cost factors to assist in evaluating each cost element. A suitable code-of-accounts data base is presented to assist in organizing and aggregating costs. Rudimentary cost analysis methods are described to allow the analyst to produce a constant-dollar, lifetime cost for the requirement. A step-by-step example cost estimate is included to demonstrate the overall use of the Handbook

  9. Nuclear shipping and waste disposal cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II.

    1977-11-01

    Cost estimates for the shipping of spent fuel from the reactor, shipping of waste from the reprocessing plant, and disposal of reprocessing plant wastes have been made for five reactor types. The reactors considered are the light-water reactor (LWR), the mixed-oxide-fueled light-water reactor (MOX), the Canadian deuterium-uranium reactor (CANDU), the fast breeder reactor (FBR), and the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). In addition to the cost estimates, this report provides details on the bases and assumptions used to develop the cost estimates

  10. Increased accuracy of cost-estimation using product configuration systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jeppe Bredahl; Hvam, Lars; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

    This article describes an approach for utilizing Product Configuration Systems (PCS) for quantifying project costs in project-based companies. It presents a case study demonstrating a method of quantifying costs in a way that makes it possible to configure cost- and time estimates. Piecework costs......, material costs and sub-supplier costs are used as principle cost elements and linked to structural and process elements to facilitate configuration. The cost data are used by the PCS to generate fast and accurate cost-estimates, quotations, time estimates and cost summaries. The described cost...... quantification principles have been used in a Scandinavian SME (Small and Medium-sized Enterprise) since the 90’s, but have since 2011 been adopted to be used in a configuration system. A longitudinal case study was conducted to compare cost and time-estimation accuracy before and after implementation. We...

  11. DATA MINING METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL MODEL OF COST PREDICTION IN SHIP INTERIM PRODUCT ASSEMBLY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damir Kolich

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to accurately predict costs of the thousands of interim products that are assembled in shipyards, it is necessary to use skilled engineers to develop detailed Gantt charts for each interim product separately which takes many hours. It is helpful to develop a prediction tool to estimate the cost of interim products accurately and quickly without the need for skilled engineers. This will drive down shipyard costs and improve competitiveness. Data mining is used extensively for developing prediction models in other industries. Since ships consist of thousands of interim products, it is logical to develop a data mining methodology for a shipyard or any other manufacturing industry where interim products are produced. The methodology involves analysis of existing interim products and data collection. Pre-processing and principal component analysis is done to make the data “user-friendly” for later prediction processing and the development of both accurate and robust models. The support vector machine is demonstrated as the better model when there are a lower number of tuples. However as the number of tuples is increased to over 10000, then the artificial neural network model is recommended.

  12. Survey of Transmission Cost Allocation Methodologies for Regional Transmission Organizations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fink, S.; Porter, K.; Mudd, C.; Rogers, J.

    2011-02-01

    The report presents transmission cost allocation methodologies for reliability transmission projects, generation interconnection, and economic transmission projects for all Regional Transmission Organizations.

  13. Determining the economic cost of ICU treatment: a prospective "micro-costing" study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McLaughlin, Anne Marie

    2009-12-01

    To prospectively assess the cost of patients in an adult intensive care unit (ICU) using bottom-up costing methodology and evaluate the usefulness of "severity of illness" scores in estimating ICU cost.

  14. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murray Christopher JL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  15. TOPEX: An expert system for estimating and analyzing the operating costs of oil and gas production facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greffioz, J.; Olver, A.J.; Schirmer, P.

    1993-01-01

    TOPEX is a new approach to operating costs estimation of oil and gas installations. It does not rely on knowledge of the capital cost of the installation and uses a computerized expert system (or knowledge base). Estimates are generated from specific details of the equipment and systems and general databases of prices and man hours. A novel methodology has been developed for quantifying the operational complexity of an installation which is then correlated with operations manpower. The use of a computerized application allows rapid calculation of estimates so that what-if and sensitivity studies can be readily done. The knowledge base provides a powerful tool to handle the large amounts of data involved and acts as a repository for the expertise used in its development

  16. Monitoring costs in the ICU: a search for a pertinent methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis Miranda, D; Jegers, M

    2012-10-01

    Attempts to determine costs in the intensive care unit (ICU) were not successful until now, as they failed to detect differences of costs between patients. The methodology and/or the instruments used might be at the origin of this failure. Based on the results of the European ICUs studies and on the descriptions of the activities of care in the ICU, we gathered and analysed the relevant literature concerning the monitoring of costs in the ICU. The aim was to formulate a methodology, from an economic perspective, in which future research may be framed. A bottom-up microcosting methodology will enable to distinguish costs between patients. The resulting information will at the same time support the decision-making of top management and be ready to include in the financial system of the hospital. Nursing staff explains about 30% of the total costs. This relation remains constant irrespective of the annual nurse/patient ratio. In contrast with other scoring instruments, the nursing activities score (NAS) covers all nursing activities. (1) NAS is to be chosen for quantifying nursing activities; (2) an instrument for measuring the physician's activities is not yet available; (3) because the nursing activities have a large impact on total costs, the standardisation of the processes of care (following the system approach) will contribute to manage costs, making also reproducible the issue of quality of care; (4) the quantification of the nursing activities may be the required (proxy) input for the automated bottom-up monitoring of costs in the ICU. © 2012 The Authors. Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica © 2012 The Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica Foundation.

  17. A Methodology of Health Effects Estimation from Air Pollution in Large Asian Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keiko Hirota

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase of health effects caused by air pollution seems to be a growing concern in Asian cities with increasing motorization. This paper discusses methods of estimating the health effects of air pollution in large Asian cities. Due to the absence of statistical data in Asia, this paper carefully chooses the methodology using data of the Japanese compensation system. A basic idea of health effects will be captured from simple indicators, such as population and air quality, in a correlation model. This correlation model enables more estimation results of respiratory mortality caused by air pollution to be yielded than by using the relative model. The correlation model could be an alternative method to estimate mortality besides the relative risk model since the results of the correlation model are comparable with those of the relative model by city and by time series. The classification of respiratory diseases is not known from the statistical yearbooks in many countries. Estimation results could support policy decision-making with respect to public health in a cost-effective way.

  18. Financial aspects of decommissioning (key aspects of decommissioning costing)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danska, V.

    2009-01-01

    In this presentation the following aspects of NPPs decommissioning are discussed: Requirements and purpose of decommissioning costing; Decommissioning costing methodologies; Standardised decommissioning cost structure; Input data for cost estimate process; Waste management in cost estimate process; Grading aspects in cost estimating; Cost control in decommissioning projects; Summary of the cost estimation process; Conclusions and recommendations.

  19. Development of computer program for estimating decommissioning cost - 59037

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hak-Soo; Park, Jong-Kil

    2012-01-01

    The programs for estimating the decommissioning cost have been developed for many different purposes and applications. The estimation of decommissioning cost is required a large amount of data such as unit cost factors, plant area and its inventory, waste treatment, etc. These make it difficult to use manual calculation or typical spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel. The cost estimation for eventual decommissioning of nuclear power plants is a prerequisite for safe, timely and cost-effective decommissioning. To estimate the decommissioning cost more accurately and systematically, KHNP, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd, developed a decommissioning cost estimating computer program called 'DeCAT-Pro', which is Decommission-ing Cost Assessment Tool - Professional. (Hereinafter called 'DeCAT') This program allows users to easily assess the decommissioning cost with various decommissioning options. Also, this program provides detailed reporting for decommissioning funding requirements as well as providing detail project schedules, cash-flow, staffing plan and levels, and waste volumes by waste classifications and types. KHNP is planning to implement functions for estimating the plant inventory using 3-D technology and for classifying the conditions of radwaste disposal and transportation automatically. (authors)

  20. A methodology for calculating the levelized cost of electricity in nuclear power systems with fuel recycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Roo, Guillaume; Parsons, John E.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we show how the traditional definition of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be extended to alternative nuclear fuel cycles in which elements of the fuel are recycled. In particular, we define the LCOE for a cycle with full actinide recycling in fast reactors in which elements of the fuel are reused an indefinite number of times. To our knowledge, ours is the first LCOE formula for this cycle. Others have approached the task of evaluating this cycle using an 'equilibrium cost' concept that is different from a levelized cost. We also show how the LCOE implies a unique price for the recycled elements. This price reflects the ultimate cost of waste disposal postponed through the recycling, as well as other costs in the cycle. We demonstrate the methodology by estimating the LCOE for three classic nuclear fuel cycles: (i) the traditional Once-Through Cycle, (ii) a Twice-Through Cycle, and (iii) a Fast Reactor Recycle. Given our chosen input parameters, we show that the 'equilibrium cost' is typically larger than the levelized cost, and we explain why.

  1. AX Tank Farm waste retrieval alternatives cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krieg, S.A.

    1998-01-01

    This report presents the estimated costs associated with retrieval of the wastes from the four tanks in AX Tank Farm. The engineering cost estimates developed for this report are based on previous cost data prepared for Project W-320 and the HTI 241-C-106 Heel Retrieval System. The costs presented in this report address only the retrieval of the wastes from the four AX Farm tanks. This includes costs for equipment procurement, fabrication, installation, and operation to retrieve the wastes. The costs to modify the existing plant equipment and systems to support the retrieval equipment are also included. The estimates do not include operational costs associated with pumping the waste out of the waste receiver tank (241-AY-102) between AX Farm retrieval campaigns or transportation, processing, and disposal of the retrieved waste

  2. An Estimation of Private Household Costs to Receive Free Oral Cholera Vaccine in Odisha, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogasale, Vittal; Kar, Shantanu K.; Kim, Jong-Hoon; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V.; Kerketta, Anna S.; Patnaik, Bikash; Rath, Shyam Bandhu; Puri, Mahesh K.; You, Young Ae; Khuntia, Hemant K.; Maskery, Brian; Wierzba, Thomas F.; Sah, Binod

    2015-01-01

    Background Service provider costs for vaccine delivery have been well documented; however, vaccine recipients’ costs have drawn less attention. This research explores the private household out-of-pocket and opportunity costs incurred to receive free oral cholera vaccine during a mass vaccination campaign in rural Odisha, India. Methods Following a government-driven oral cholera mass vaccination campaign targeting population over one year of age, a questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey was conducted to estimate private household costs among vaccine recipients. The questionnaire captured travel costs as well as time and wage loss for self and accompanying persons. The productivity loss was estimated using three methods: self-reported, government defined minimum daily wages and gross domestic product per capita in Odisha. Findings On average, families were located 282.7 (SD = 254.5) meters from the nearest vaccination booths. Most family members either walked or bicycled to the vaccination sites and spent on average 26.5 minutes on travel and 15.7 minutes on waiting. Depending upon the methodology, the estimated productivity loss due to potential foregone income ranged from $0.15 to $0.29 per dose of cholera vaccine received. The private household cost of receiving oral cholera vaccine constituted 24.6% to 38.0% of overall vaccine delivery costs. Interpretation The private household costs resulting from productivity loss for receiving a free oral cholera vaccine is a substantial proportion of overall vaccine delivery cost and may influence vaccine uptake. Policy makers and program managers need to recognize the importance of private costs and consider how to balance programmatic delivery costs with private household costs to receive vaccines. PMID:26352143

  3. An Estimation of Private Household Costs to Receive Free Oral Cholera Vaccine in Odisha, India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittal Mogasale

    Full Text Available Service provider costs for vaccine delivery have been well documented; however, vaccine recipients' costs have drawn less attention. This research explores the private household out-of-pocket and opportunity costs incurred to receive free oral cholera vaccine during a mass vaccination campaign in rural Odisha, India.Following a government-driven oral cholera mass vaccination campaign targeting population over one year of age, a questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey was conducted to estimate private household costs among vaccine recipients. The questionnaire captured travel costs as well as time and wage loss for self and accompanying persons. The productivity loss was estimated using three methods: self-reported, government defined minimum daily wages and gross domestic product per capita in Odisha.On average, families were located 282.7 (SD = 254.5 meters from the nearest vaccination booths. Most family members either walked or bicycled to the vaccination sites and spent on average 26.5 minutes on travel and 15.7 minutes on waiting. Depending upon the methodology, the estimated productivity loss due to potential foregone income ranged from $0.15 to $0.29 per dose of cholera vaccine received. The private household cost of receiving oral cholera vaccine constituted 24.6% to 38.0% of overall vaccine delivery costs.The private household costs resulting from productivity loss for receiving a free oral cholera vaccine is a substantial proportion of overall vaccine delivery cost and may influence vaccine uptake. Policy makers and program managers need to recognize the importance of private costs and consider how to balance programmatic delivery costs with private household costs to receive vaccines.

  4. A robust methodology for kinetic model parameter estimation for biocatalytic reactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Al-Haque, Naweed; Andrade Santacoloma, Paloma de Gracia; Lima Afonso Neto, Watson

    2012-01-01

    lead to globally optimized parameter values. In this article, a robust methodology to estimate parameters for biocatalytic reaction kinetic expressions is proposed. The methodology determines the parameters in a systematic manner by exploiting the best features of several of the current approaches...... parameters, which are strongly correlated with each other. State-of-the-art methodologies such as nonlinear regression (using progress curves) or graphical analysis (using initial rate data, for example, the Lineweaver-Burke plot, Hanes plot or Dixon plot) often incorporate errors in the estimates and rarely...

  5. Estimation of costs for applications of remediation technologies for the Department of Energy's Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villegas, A.J.; Hansen, R.I.; Humphreys, K.K.; Paananen, J.M.; Gildea, L.F.

    1994-01-01

    The Programmatic Environmental impact Statement (PEIS) being developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) for environmental restoration (ER) and waste management (WM) activities expected to be carried out across the DOE's nationwide complex of facilities is assessing the impacts of removing, transporting, treating, storing, and disposing of waste from these ER and WM activities. Factors being considered include health and safety impacts to the public and to workers, impacts on the environment, costs and socio-economic impacts, and near-term and residual risk during those ER and WM operations. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the methodology developed specifically for the PEIS to estimate costs associated with the deployment and application of individual remediation technologies. These individual costs are used in developing order-of-magnitude cost estimates for the total remediation activities. Costs are developed on a per-unit-of-material-to-be-treated basis (i.e., $/m 3 ) to accommodate remediation projects of varying sizes. The primary focus of this cost-estimating effort was the development of capital and operating unit cost factors based on the amount of primary media to be removed, handled, and treated. The unit costs for individual treatment technologies were developed using information from a variety of sources, mainly from periodicals, EPA documentation, handbooks, vendor contacts, and cost models. The unit cost factors for individual technologies were adjusted to 1991 dollars

  6. Methodology for Estimating Ingestion Dose for Emergency Response at SRS

    CERN Document Server

    Simpkins, A A

    2002-01-01

    At the Savannah River Site (SRS), emergency response models estimate dose for inhalation and ground shine pathways. A methodology has been developed to incorporate ingestion doses into the emergency response models. The methodology follows a two-phase approach. The first phase estimates site-specific derived response levels (DRLs) which can be compared with predicted ground-level concentrations to determine if intervention is needed to protect the public. This phase uses accepted methods with little deviation from recommended guidance. The second phase uses site-specific data to estimate a 'best estimate' dose to offsite individuals from ingestion of foodstuffs. While this method deviates from recommended guidance, it is technically defensibly and more realistic. As guidance is updated, these methods also will need to be updated.

  7. Cost Model for Digital Curation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2009-01-01

    The Danish Ministry of Culture is currently funding a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project is to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future financial requirements...... for digital preservation and to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities. In this study we describe an activity based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the OAIS Reference Model. In order to estimate the cost of digital migrations we have identified cost critical...

  8. Probabilistic cost estimating of nuclear power plant construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finch, W.C.; Perry, L.W.; Postula, F.D.

    1978-01-01

    This paper shows how to identify and isolate cost accounts by developing probability trees down to component levels as justified by value and cost uncertainty. Examples are given of the procedure for assessing uncertainty in all areas contributing to cost: design, factory equipment pricing, and field labor and materials. The method of combining these individual uncertainties is presented so that the cost risk can be developed for components, systems and the total plant construction project. Formats which enable management to use the probabilistic cost estimate information for business planning and risk control are illustrated. Topics considered include code estimate performance, cost allocation, uncertainty encoding, probabilistic cost distributions, and interpretation. Effective cost control of nuclear power plant construction projects requires insight into areas of greatest cost uncertainty and a knowledge of the factors which can cause costs to vary from the single value estimates. It is concluded that probabilistic cost estimating can provide the necessary assessment of uncertainties both as to the cause and the consequences

  9. [Hospital costs estimation by micro and gross-costing approaches].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerre, P; Hayes, N; Bertaux, A-C

    2018-03-01

    Cost analysis has become increasingly commonplace in healthcare facilities in recent years. Regardless of the aim, the first consideration for a hospital costing process is to determine the point of view, or perspective, to adopt. Should the cost figures reflect the healthcare facility's point of view or enlighten perspectives for the public health insurance system? Another consideration is in regard to the method to adopt, as there are several. The two most widely used methods to determine the costs of hospital treatments in France are the micro-costing method and the gross-costing method. The aims of this work are: (1) to describe each of these methods (e.g. data collection, assignment of monetary value to resource consumption) with their advantages and shortcomings as they relate to the difficulties encountered with their implementation in hospitals; (2) to present a review of the literature comparing the two methods and their possible combination; and (3) to propose ways to address the questions that need to be asked before compiling resource consumption data and assigning monetary value to hospital costs. A final diagram summarizes methodologies to be preferred according to the evaluation strategy and the impact on patient care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. Cost Estimating Cases: Educational Tools for Cost Analysts

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-09-01

    only appropriate documentation should be provided. In other words, students should not submit all of the documentation possible using ACEIT , only that...case was their lack of understanding of the ACEIT software used to conduct the estimate. Specifically, many students misinterpreted the cost...estimating relationships (CERs) embedded in the 49 software. Additionally, few of the students were able to properly organize the ACEIT documentation output

  11. State-Level Estimates of Cancer-Related Absenteeism Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangka, Florence K.; Trogdon, Justin G.; Nwaise, Isaac; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Guy, Gery P.; Orenstein, Diane

    2016-01-01

    Background Cancer is one of the top five most costly diseases in the United States and leads to substantial work loss. Nevertheless, limited state-level estimates of cancer absenteeism costs have been published. Methods In analyses of data from the 2004–2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau for 2008, and the 2009 Current Population Survey, we used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level absenteeism costs attributable to cancer from 2004 to 2008. Results We estimated that the state-level median number of days of absenteeism per year among employed cancer patients was 6.1 days and that annual state-level cancer absenteeism costs ranged from $14.9 million to $915.9 million (median = $115.9 million) across states in 2010 dollars. Absenteeism costs are approximately 6.5% of the costs of premature cancer mortality. Conclusions The results from this study suggest that lost productivity attributable to cancer is a substantial cost to employees and employers and contributes to estimates of the overall impact of cancer in a state population. PMID:23969498

  12. Cost Estimating for Decommissioning of a Plutonium Facility--Lessons Learned From The Rocky Flats Building 771 Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevens, J. L.; Titus, R.; Sanford, P. C.

    2002-01-01

    The Rocky Flats Closure Site is implementing an aggressive approach in an attempt to complete Site closure by 2006. The replanning effort to meet this goal required that the life-cycle decommissioning effort for the Site and for the major individual facilities be reexamined in detail. As part of the overall effort, the cost estimate for the Building 771 decommissioning project was revised to incorporate both actual cost data from a recently-completed similar project and detailed planning for all activities. This paper provides a brief overview of the replanning process and the original estimate, and then discusses the modifications to that estimate to reflect new data, methods, and planning rigor. It provides the new work breakdown structure and discusses the reasons for the final arrangement chosen. It follows with the process used to assign scope, cost, and schedule elements within the new structure, and development of the new code of accounts. Finally, it describes the project control methodology used to track the project, and provides lessons learned on cost tracking in the decommissioning environment

  13. Life cycle costing of food waste: A review of methodological approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Menna, Fabio; Dietershagen, Jana; Loubiere, Marion; Vittuari, Matteo

    2018-03-01

    Food waste (FW) is a global problem that is receiving increasing attention due to its environmental and economic impacts. Appropriate FW prevention, valorization, and management routes could mitigate or avoid these effects. Life cycle thinking and approaches, such as life cycle costing (LCC), may represent suitable tools to assess the sustainability of these routes. This study analyzes different LCC methodological aspects and approaches to evaluate FW management and valorization routes. A systematic literature review was carried out with a focus on different LCC approaches, their application to food, FW, and waste systems, as well as on specific methodological aspects. The review consisted of three phases: a collection phase, an iterative phase with experts' consultation, and a final literature classification. Journal papers and reports were retrieved from selected databases and search engines. The standardization of LCC methodologies is still in its infancy due to a lack of consensus over definitions and approaches. Research on the life cycle cost of FW is limited and generally focused on FW management, rather than prevention or valorization of specific flows. FW prevention, valorization, and management require a consistent integration of LCC and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to avoid tradeoffs between environmental and economic impacts. This entails a proper investigation of methodological differences between attributional and consequential modelling in LCC, especially with regard to functional unit, system boundaries, multi-functionality, included cost, and assessed impacts. Further efforts could also aim at finding the most effective and transparent categorization of costs, in particular when dealing with multiple stakeholders sustaining costs of FW. Interpretation of results from LCC of FW should take into account the effect on larger economic systems. Additional key performance indicators and analytical tools could be included in consequential approaches

  14. 48 CFR 1852.216-74 - Estimated cost and fixed fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... and Clauses 1852.216-74 Estimated cost and fixed fee. As prescribed in 1816.307-70(b), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Fixed Fee (DEC 1991) The estimated cost of this contract is ______ exclusive of the fixed fee of ______. The total estimated cost and fixed fee is ______. (End of clause) [62...

  15. Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE's record of decision)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, R.L.; Miller, J.W.

    1997-04-01

    Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of ∼50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios

  16. Cost of Capital Estimation for Highway Concessionaires in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Vergara-Novoa

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present the cost of capital estimation for highway concessionaires in Chile. We estimated the cost of equity and the cost of debt and determined the capital structure for each one of twenty-four concessionaires that operate highways. We based our estimations on the developments of Sharpe (1964, Modigliani and Miller (1958, and Maquieira (2009, which were also compared with the Brusov et al. (2015 developments. We collected stock prices for different highway concessionaires around the world from Google Finance and Reuters’ websites in order to determine the Beta of equity using a representative company. After that, we estimated the cost of equity considering Hamada (1969 and a Capital Asset Pricing Model. Then, we estimated the cost of capital using the cost of debt and the capital structure of Chile’s highway concessionaires. With all above, we were able to determine the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC for highway concessions which ranges from 5.49 to 6.62%.

  17. Cost-estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R.

    1993-01-01

    Various advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include several advanced light water reactors as well as the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor and the advanced liquid-metal reactor. One measure-of the attractiveness of a new concept is cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electric generation. In order to make reasonable comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules and assumptions must be applied when developing cost estimates. This paper describes the cost-estimate guidelines developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to be used in developing cost estimates for the advanced nuclear reactors and how these guidelines relate to the DOE cost verification process

  18. A Method for Estimating Potential Energy and Cost Savings for Cooling Existing Data Centers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Geet, Otto

    2017-04-24

    NREL has developed a methodology to prioritize which data center cooling systems could be upgraded for better efficiency based on estimated cost savings and economics. The best efficiency results are in cool or dry climates where 'free' economizer or evaporative cooling can provide most of the data center cooling. Locations with a high cost of energy and facilities with high power usage effectiveness (PUE) are also good candidates for data center cooling system upgrades. In one case study of a major cable provider's data centers, most of the sites studied had opportunities for cost-effective cooling system upgrades with payback period of 5 years or less. If the cable provider invested in all opportunities for upgrades with payback periods of less than 15 years, it could save 27% on annual energy costs.

  19. Power plant cost estimates put to the test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, J.H.

    1978-01-01

    The growth in standards for nuclear applications and the impact of these codes and standards on the cost of nuclear power plants is described. The preparation of cost estimates and reasons for apparent discrepancies are discussed. Consistent estimates of nuclear power plant costs have been prepared in the USA for over a decade. They show that the difference in capital costs between nuclear and coal fired plants is narrowing and that when total generating costs are calculated nuclear power is substantially cheaper. (UK)

  20. Aircraft bi-level life cycle cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curan, R.

    2015-01-01

    n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost,

  1. Estimating costs in the economic evaluation of medical technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luce, B R; Elixhauser, A

    1990-01-01

    The complexities and nuances of evaluating the costs associated with providing medical technologies are often underestimated by analysts engaged in economic evaluations. This article describes the theoretical underpinnings of cost estimation, emphasizing the importance of accounting for opportunity costs and marginal costs. The various types of costs that should be considered in an analysis are described; a listing of specific cost elements may provide a helpful guide to analysis. The process of identifying and estimating costs is detailed, and practical recommendations for handling the challenges of cost estimation are provided. The roles of sensitivity analysis and discounting are characterized, as are determinants of the types of costs to include in an analysis. Finally, common problems facing the analyst are enumerated with suggestions for managing these problems.

  2. Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, Grant; Heptonstall, Phil; Gross, Robert; Handley, David

    2013-01-01

    Current UK Government support for nuclear power has in part been informed by cost estimates that suggest that electricity from new nuclear power stations will be competitive with alternative low carbon generation options. The evidence and analysis presented in this paper suggests that the capital cost estimates for nuclear power that are being used to inform these projections rely on costs escalating over the pre-construction and construction phase of the new build programme at a level significantly below those that have been experienced by past US and European programmes. This paper applies observed construction time and cost escalation rates to the published estimates of capital costs for new nuclear plant in the UK and calculates the potential impact on levelised cost per unit of electricity produced. The results suggest that levelised cost may turn out to be significantly higher than expected which in turn has important implications for policy, both in general terms of the potential costs to consumers and more specifically for negotiations around the level of policy support and contractual arrangements offered to individual projects through the proposed contract for difference strike price. -- Highlights: •Nuclear power projects costs can rise substantially during the construction period. •Pre-construction and construction time can be much longer than anticipated. •Adjusting estimates for observed experience increases levelised costs significantly. •Higher costs suggest that more policy support than envisaged may be required

  3. Application of best estimate and uncertainty safety analysis methodology to loss of flow events at Ontario's Power Generation's Darlington Nuclear Generating Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huget, R.G.; Lau, D.K.; Luxat, J.C.

    2001-01-01

    Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is currently developing a new safety analysis methodology based on best estimate and uncertainty (BEAU) analysis. The framework and elements of the new safety analysis methodology are defined. The evolution of safety analysis technology at OPG has been thoroughly documented. Over the years, the use of conservative limiting assumptions in OPG safety analyses has led to gradual erosion of predicted safety margins. The main purpose of the new methodology is to provide a more realistic quantification of safety margins within a probabilistic framework, using best estimate results, with an integrated accounting of the underlying uncertainties. Another objective of the new methodology is to provide a cost-effective means for on-going safety analysis support of OPG's nuclear generating stations. Discovery issues and plant aging effects require that the safety analyses be periodically revised and, in the past, the cost of reanalysis at OPG has been significant. As OPG enters the new competitive marketplace for electricity, there is a strong need to conduct safety analysis in a less cumbersome manner. This paper presents the results of the first licensing application of the new methodology in support of planned design modifications to the shutdown systems (SDSs) at Darlington Nuclear Generating Station (NGS). The design modifications restore dual trip parameter coverage over the full range of reactor power for certain postulated loss-of-flow (LOF) events. The application of BEAU analysis to the single heat transport pump trip event provides a realistic estimation of the safety margins for the primary and backup trip parameters. These margins are significantly larger than those predicted by conventional limit of the operating envelope (LOE) analysis techniques. (author)

  4. Development of a simple estimation tool for LMFBR construction cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Kazuo; Kinoshita, Izumi

    1999-01-01

    A simple tool for estimating the construction costs of liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors (LMFBRs), 'Simple Cost' was developed in this study. Simple Cost is based on a new estimation formula that can reduce the amount of design data required to estimate construction costs. Consequently, Simple cost can be used to estimate the construction costs of innovative LMFBR concepts for which detailed design has not been carried out. The results of test calculation show that Simple Cost provides cost estimations equivalent to those obtained with conventional methods within the range of plant power from 325 to 1500 MWe. Sensitivity analyses for typical design parameters were conducted using Simple Cost. The effects of four major parameters - reactor vessel diameter, core outlet temperature, sodium handling area and number of secondary loops - on the construction costs of LMFBRs were evaluated quantitatively. The results show that the reduction of sodium handling area is particularly effective in reducing construction costs. (author)

  5. Overview of causes and costs of injuries in Massachusetts: a methodology for analysis of state data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, M; Cohen, B B; Rodgers, C G; Walker, D K; Friedman, D J; Ozonoff, V V

    1995-01-01

    Massachusetts has developed the first State profile of the causes and costs of injury based on the national study, "Cost of Injury in the United States: A Report to Congress." Incidence of fatal injuries is based on Massachusetts data; nonfatal hospitalized injuries, on Massachusetts age and sex rates and U.S. cause data; and nonhospitalized injuries, on U.S. rates applied to Massachusetts census data. Lifetime costs per injured person are based on national data adjusted for higher personal health care expenditures and for higher mean annual earnings in Massachusetts. The estimated total lifetime cost for the 1.4 million injuries that occurred in 1989 is $4.4 billion--$1.7 billion for health care and $2.7 billion for lost earnings. Injuries attributed to motor vehicles and falls account for more than half of the total cost. The other cause categories are poisonings, fire-burns, firearms, drowings-near drownings, and other. For every person who dies from an injury, 17 people are hospitalized, and an estimated 535 people require outpatient treatment, consultation, or restricted activity. Development of a State-based cost report can be useful in monitoring the contribution of injuries to health status and in planning effective injury prevention strategies in a community-based health care system. The methodology described in this paper can be replicated by other States through accessing their State-specific mortality and hospital discharge data bases. PMID:7610211

  6. Calculating the Unit Cost Factors for Decommissioning Cost Estimation of the Nuclear Research Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Kwan Seong; Lee, Dong Gyu; Jung, Chong Hun; Lee, Kune Woo

    2006-01-01

    The estimated decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor is calculated by applying a unit cost factor-based engineering cost calculation method on which classification of decommissioning works fitted with the features and specifications of decommissioning objects and establishment of composition factors are based. Decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor is composed of labor cost, equipment and materials cost. Labor cost of decommissioning costs in decommissioning works are calculated on the basis of working time consumed in decommissioning objects. In this paper, the unit cost factors and work difficulty factors which are needed to calculate the labor cost in estimating decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor are derived and figured out.

  7. An Overview Of Tool For Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferries, S.R.; Klink, K.L.; Ostapkowicz, B.

    2012-01-01

    Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel(reg s ign) workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

  8. Methodological advances in unit cost calculation of psychiatric residential care in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Karen; Sanchez, Eduardo; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

    2008-06-01

    The care of the severe mentally ill who need intensive support for their daily living (dependent persons), accounts for an increasingly large proportion of public expenditure in many European countries. The main aim of this study was the design and implementation of solid methodology to calculate unit costs of different types of care. To date, methodologies used in Spain have produced inaccurate figures, suggesting few variations in patient consumption of the same service. An adaptation of the Activity-Based-Costing methodology was applied in Navarre, a region in the North of Spain, as a pilot project for the public mental health services. A unit cost per care process was obtained for all levels of care considered in each service during 2005. The European Service Mapping Schedule (ESMS) codes were used to classify the services for later comparisons. Finally, in order to avoid problems of asymmetric cost distribution, a simple Bayesian model was used. As an illustration, we report the results obtained for long-term residential care and note that there are important variations between unit costs when considering different levels of care. Considering three levels of care (Level 1-low, Level 2-medium and Level 3-intensive), the cost per bed in Level 3 was 10% higher than that of Level 2. The results obtained using the cost methodology described provide more useful information than those using conventional methods, although its implementation requires much time to compile the necessary information during the initial stages and the collaboration of staff and managers working in the services. However, in some services, if no important variations exist in patient care, another method would be advisable, although our system provides very useful information about patterns of care from a clinical point of view. Detailed work is required at the beginning of the implementation in order to avoid the calculation of distorted figures and to improve the levels of decision making

  9. Support to LANL: Cost estimation. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for Cost Estimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing cost estimates for DOE planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors

  10. Preliminary fee methodology for recovering GTCC-LLW management costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, L.L.

    1990-06-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is currently planning a fee to recover costs of managing Greater-Than-Class-C Low-Level Waste (GTCC-LLW). A cash flow basis will be used for fee calculations to ensure recovery of all applicable program costs. Positive cash flows are revenues received from waste generators. Negative cash flows are program expenses for storage, transportation, treatment, and disposal of the wastes and for program development, evaluation, and administration. Program balances are the net result of positive and negative cash flows each year. The methodology calculates fees that will recovery all program expenses taking into account cost inflation. 3 refs., 1 tab

  11. The Practice of Cost Estimation for Decommissioning of Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidova, Ivana; Desecures, Sylvain; Lexow, Thomas; Buonarroti, Stefano; Marini, Giuseppe; Pescatore, Claudio; Rehak, Ivan; Weber, Inge; ); Daniska, Vladimir; Linan, Jorge Borque; Caroll, Simon; Hedberg, Bjoern; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Laguardia, Thomas S.; Ridpath, Andy

    2015-01-01

    Decommissioning of both commercial and R and D nuclear facilities is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, and the largest of such industrial decommissioning projects could command considerable budgets. Several approaches are currently being used for decommissioning cost estimations, with an international culture developing in the field. The present cost estimation practice guide was prepared in order to offer international actors specific guidance in preparing quality cost and schedule estimates to support detailed budgeting for the preparation of decommissioning plans, for the securing of funds and for decommissioning implementation. This guide is based on current practices and standards in a number of NEA member countries and aims to help consolidate the practice and process of decommissioning cost estimation so as to make it more widely understood. It offers a useful reference for the practitioner and for training programmes. The remainder of report is divided into the following chapters: - Chapter 2 covers the purpose and nature of decommissioning cost estimates, approaches to cost estimation and the major elements of a cost estimate. - Chapter 3 examines the development of the integrated schedule of the activity-dependent work scope and the determination of the project critical path. - Chapter 4 describes the attributes of a quality assurance programme applicable to cost estimation and the use and cautions of benchmarking the estimate from other estimates or actual costs. - Chapter 5 describes the pyramidal structure of the report, and the scope and content that should be included in the cost study report to ensure consistency and transparency in the estimate underpinnings. - Chapter 6 provides some observations, conclusions and recommendations on the use of this guide

  12. Automated remedial assessment methodology software system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whiting, M.; Wilkins, M.; Stiles, D.

    1994-11-01

    The Automated Remedial Analysis Methodology (ARAM) software system has been developed by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory to assist the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in evaluating cleanup options for over 10,000 contaminated sites across the DOE complex. The automated methodology comprises modules for decision logic diagrams, technology applicability and effectiveness rules, mass balance equations, cost and labor estimating factors and equations, and contaminant stream routing. ARAM is used to select technologies for meeting cleanup targets; determine the effectiveness of the technologies in destroying, removing, or immobilizing contaminants; decide the nature and amount of secondary waste requiring further treatment; and estimate the cost and labor involved when applying technologies

  13. Methodology for estimating sodium aerosol concentrations during breeder reactor fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, D.E.; Miller, C.W.

    1985-01-01

    We have devised and applied a methodology for estimating the concentration of aerosols released at building surfaces and monitored at other building surface points. We have used this methodology to make calculations that suggest, for one air-cooled breeder reactor design, cooling will not be compromised by severe liquid-metal fires

  14. Costs of rearing children in agricultural economies: an alternative estimation approach and findings from rural Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, M M; Magnani, R J; Mock, N B; Saadat, Y S

    1993-03-01

    There are changes in child costs during demographic transition. This study examines household time allocation from 66 agricultural households in 3 villages in Tangail District in rural north central Bangladesh in 1984-85 (371 days). Component and total child-rearing costs are estimated in alternative ways. Conventional "opportunity wage" measures are considered overestimated. The methodological shortcomings of direct cost accounting procedures and consumer demand methods in computing time cost and monetary cost of child rearing are pointed out. In this study's alternative computation, age standardized equivalent costs are generated. Child food consumption costs were generated from a large national survey conducted in 1983. Nonfood expenditures were estimated by food to nonfood expenditure ratios taken from the aforementioned survey. For estimating breast-feeding costs, an estimate was produced based on the assumption that costs for infant food consumption were a fixed proportion of food costs for older children. Land ownership groups were set up to reflect socioeconomic status: 1) landless households, 2) marginal farm households with 1 acre or .4 hectares of land, 3) middle income households with 1-2 acres of land, 4) upper middle income households with 2-4 acres of land, and 5) upper income or rich households with over 4 acres of land. The nonmarket wage rate for hired household help was used to determine the value of cooking, fetching water, and household cleaning and repairing. The results confirm the low costs of child rearing in high fertility societies. Productive nonmarket activities are effective in subsidizing the costs of children. The addition of a child into households already with children has a low impact on time costs of children; "this economies of scale effect is estimated ... at 20%." The highest relative costs were found in the lowest income households, and the lowest costs were in the highest income households. 5% of total household income is

  15. Project cost estimation techniques used by most emerging building ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Cost estimation, estimation methods, emerging contractors, tender. Dr Solly Matshonisa .... historical cost data (data from cost accounting records and/ ..... emerging contractors in tendering. Table 13: Use of project risk management versus responsibility: expected. Internal document analysis. Checklist analysis.

  16. 48 CFR 1852.216-85 - Estimated cost and award fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... and Clauses 1852.216-85 Estimated cost and award fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(e), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Award Fee (SEP 1993) The estimated cost of this contract is $___. The... cost, base fee, and maximum award fee are $___. (End of clause) Alternate I (SEP 1993). As prescribed...

  17. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II.

    1986-07-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies

  18. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II.

    1987-07-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies

  19. Evaluation of environmental management cost estimating capabilities for the subject area ''Life-cycle economics for radioactive waste management and environmental remediation''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hombach, W.G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive perspective on the scope of Environmental Management (EM) activities and on the existing capability to estimate their costs. The scope is defined in terms of both activities and associated cost driving factors. The capability to estimate this scope was determined by evaluating existing cost estimating tools identified through a survey of the US Department of Energy (DOE), the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Environmental Protection Agency, and private industry. This paper is largely based on the results of a report produced for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, US Department of Defense, entitled, Evaluation of Environmental Management Cost-Estimating Capabilities of Major Defense Acquisition Programs, March 22, 1995. The DoD sponsored report was designed to have a broad application relevant not only to DoD, but to other government agencies, and industry. In addition to DoD, it has particular application to DOE because significant portions of the analyses and data were derived from DOE environmental management databases, cost models, reports, and work breakdown structures. This paper provides the basis used and methodology employed to conduct an evaluations of selected EM cost estimating tools. The following topics are discussed: Life Cycle of EM Activities; Major Elements of EM Activities; Cost Tool Evaluation Matrix; Results of Cost Tool Evaluations; Cost Tool Development Plan

  20. Radium removal processes capital and operating cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, F.J.

    1979-09-01

    An estimate of the fixed capital and operating costs for two alternative processes for the removal of dissolved Ra-226 from uranium mill effluent in Elliot Lake, Ontario is presented. Process 1 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by coagulation, flocculation and sedimentation. Process 2 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by gravity media filtration, sand filter backwashing and sedimentation. Cost estimates were prepared for 18 different plant configurations designed to treat 1000 and 4000 imperial gallons per minute (ig/m) of effluent, 24 hrs per day, 7 days per week and 365 days per year with several equipment options. The estimated fixed capital costs for plants equipped with gravity filters were less than those equipped with circular clarifiers. The capital costs ranged from $552,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $2,578,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m. Estimated annual operating costs, based on a plant life of 10 years, ranged from $298,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $1,061,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m

  1. Application of precursor methodology in initiating frequency estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohut, P.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.

    1991-01-01

    The precursor methodology developed in recent years provides a consistent technique to identify important accident sequence precursors. It relies on operational events (extracting information from actual experience) and infers core damage scenarios based on expected safety system responses. The ranking or categorization of each precursor is determined by considering the full spectrum of potential core damage sequences. The methodology estimates the frequency of severe core damage based on the approach suggested by Apostolakis and Mosleh, which may lead to a potential overestimation of the severe-accident sequence frequency due to the inherent dependencies between the safety systems and the initiating events. The methodology is an encompassing attempt to incorporate most of the operating information available from nuclear power plants and is an attractive tool from the point of view of risk management. In this paper, a further extension of this methodology is discussed with regard to the treatment of initiating frequency of the accident sequences

  2. MONITORED GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY LIFE CYCLE COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS DOCUMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R.E. Sweeney

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost (LCC) estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA) , License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

  3. Monitored Geologic Repository Life Cycle Cost Estimate Assumptions Document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sweeney, R.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA), License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

  4. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

    1993-05-01

    Several advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include the Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors, the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor and the Advanced Light Water Reactors. One measure of the attractiveness of a new concept is its cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electrical generation. This report provides a common starting point, whereby the cost estimates for the various power plants to be considered are developed with common assumptions and ground rules. Comparisons can then be made on a consistent basis. This is the second update of these cost estimate guidelines. Changes have been made to make the guidelines more current (January 1, 1992) and in response to suggestions made as a result of the use of the previous report. The principal changes are that the reference site has been changed from a generic Northeast (Middletown) site to a more central site (EPRI's East/West Central site) and that reference bulk commodity prices and labor productivity rates have been added. This report is designed to provide a framework for the preparation and reporting of costs. The cost estimates will consist of the overnight construction cost, the total plant capital cost, the operation and maintenance costs, the fuel costs, decommissioning costs and the power production or busbar generation cost

  5. Perception-oriented methodology for robust motion estimation design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heinrich, A.; Vleuten, van der R.J.; Haan, de G.

    2014-01-01

    Optimizing a motion estimator (ME) for picture rate conversion is challenging. This is because there are many types of MEs and, within each type, many parameters, which makes subjective assessment of all the alternatives impractical. To solve this problem, we propose an automatic design methodology

  6. Application of a Methodology to calculate logistical cost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Mock-Díaz

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available At present time, the managerial environment constantly becomes more aggressive and unstable. For that reason, companies are forced to improve on a regular basis their management, to increase their economic efficiency and their effectiveness and have a better performance. Within this context, the objective of this research is to apply a methodology to determine logistical costs, in a service−providing company, which allows assessing the behavior of such costs during the year 2016. A financial assessment performed to the logistical activities proved the existence of a high cost of opportunity, element mainly dependent on inventory rotation. For the purposes of this study, several scientific methods were used; the historical−logical method, to analyze the historical evolution of logistics; and the analysis−synthesis method to gather the elements and main ideas that characterize it.

  7. Methodology to estimate parameters of an excitation system based on experimental conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saavedra-Montes, A.J. [Carrera 80 No 65-223, Bloque M8 oficina 113, Escuela de Mecatronica, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellin (Colombia); Calle 13 No 100-00, Escuela de Ingenieria Electrica y Electronica, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Valle (Colombia); Ramirez-Scarpetta, J.M. [Calle 13 No 100-00, Escuela de Ingenieria Electrica y Electronica, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Valle (Colombia); Malik, O.P. [2500 University Drive N.W., Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2011-01-15

    A methodology to estimate the parameters of a potential-source controlled rectifier excitation system model is presented in this paper. The proposed parameter estimation methodology is based on the characteristics of the excitation system. A comparison of two pseudo random binary signals, two sampling periods for each one, and three estimation algorithms is also presented. Simulation results from an excitation control system model and experimental results from an excitation system of a power laboratory setup are obtained. To apply the proposed methodology, the excitation system parameters are identified at two different levels of the generator saturation curve. The results show that it is possible to estimate the parameters of the standard model of an excitation system, recording two signals and the system operating in closed loop with the generator. The normalized sum of squared error obtained with experimental data is below 10%, and with simulation data is below 5%. (author)

  8. Contingency Cost estimation for Research reactor Decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, Hyung Gon; Hong, Yun Jeong

    2016-01-01

    There are many types of cost items in decommissioning cost estimation, however, contingencies are for unforeseen elements of cost within the defined project scope. Regulatory body wants to reasonable quantification for this issue. Many countries have adopted the breakdown of activity dependent and period-dependent costs to structure their estimates. Period-dependent costs could be broken down into defined time frames to reduce overall uncertainties. Several countries apply this notion by having different contingency factors for different phases of the project. This study is a compilation of contingency cost of research reactor and for each country. Simulation techniques using TRIM, MATLAB, and PSpice can be useful tools for designing detector channels. Thus far TRIM, MATLAB and PSpice have been used to calculate the detector current output pulse for SiC semiconductor detectors and to model the pulses that propagate through potential detector channels. This model is useful for optimizing the detector and the resolution for application to neutron monitoring in the Generation IV power reactors

  9. Contingency Cost estimation for Research reactor Decommissioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Hyung Gon; Hong, Yun Jeong [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    There are many types of cost items in decommissioning cost estimation, however, contingencies are for unforeseen elements of cost within the defined project scope. Regulatory body wants to reasonable quantification for this issue. Many countries have adopted the breakdown of activity dependent and period-dependent costs to structure their estimates. Period-dependent costs could be broken down into defined time frames to reduce overall uncertainties. Several countries apply this notion by having different contingency factors for different phases of the project. This study is a compilation of contingency cost of research reactor and for each country. Simulation techniques using TRIM, MATLAB, and PSpice can be useful tools for designing detector channels. Thus far TRIM, MATLAB and PSpice have been used to calculate the detector current output pulse for SiC semiconductor detectors and to model the pulses that propagate through potential detector channels. This model is useful for optimizing the detector and the resolution for application to neutron monitoring in the Generation IV power reactors.

  10. Cost estimating relationships for nuclear power plant operationa and maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowers, H.I.; Fuller, L.C.; Myers, M.L.

    1987-11-01

    Revised cost estimating relationships for 1987 are presented for estimating annual nonfuel operation and maintenance (O and M) costs for light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants, which update guidelines published previously in 1982. The purpose of these cost estimating relationships is for use in long range planning and evaluations of the economics of nuclear energy for electric power generation. A listing of a computer program, LWROM, implementing the cost estimating relationships and written in advanced BASIC for IBM personal computers, is included

  11. Valuing productivity costs in a changing macroeconomic environment: the estimation of colorectal cancer productivity costs using the friction cost approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanly, Paul; Koopmanschap, Marc; Sharp, Linda

    2016-06-01

    The friction cost approach (FCA) has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach for productivity cost valuation. However, FCA estimates are context dependent and influenced by extant macroeconomic conditions. We applied the FCA to estimate colorectal cancer labor productivity costs and assessed the impact of a changing macroeconomic environment on these estimates. Data from colorectal cancer survivors (n = 159) derived from a postal survey undertaken in Ireland March 2010 to January 2011 were combined with national wage data, population-level survival data, and occupation-specific friction periods to calculate temporary and permanent disability, and premature mortality costs using the FCA. The effects of changing labor market conditions between 2006 and 2013 on the friction period were modeled in scenario analyses. Costs were valued in 2008 euros. In the base-case, the total FCA per-person productivity cost for incident colorectal cancer patients of working age at diagnosis was €8543. In scenario 1 (a 2.2 % increase in unemployment), the fall in the friction period caused total productivity costs to decrease by up to 18 % compared to base-case estimates. In scenario 2 (a 9.2 % increase in unemployment), the largest decrease in productivity cost was up to 65 %. Adjusting for the vacancy rate reduced the effect of unemployment on the cost results. The friction period used in calculating labor productivity costs greatly affects the derived estimates; this friction period requires reassessment following changes in labor market conditions. The influence of changes in macroeconomic conditions on FCA-derived cost estimates may be substantial.

  12. ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-02-01

    This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill

  13. ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill.

  14. Expanded uncertainty estimation methodology in determining the sandy soils filtration coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusanova, A. D.; Malaja, L. D.; Ivanov, R. N.; Gruzin, A. V.; Shalaj, V. V.

    2018-04-01

    The combined standard uncertainty estimation methodology in determining the sandy soils filtration coefficient has been developed. The laboratory researches were carried out which resulted in filtration coefficient determination and combined uncertainty estimation obtaining.

  15. Estimated Annual Maintenance Costs for Educational Facilities in Eritrea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vagnby, Bo Hellisen

    Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea.......Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea....

  16. A Methodology to Integrate Security and Cost-effectiveness in ATM

    OpenAIRE

    Matarese, Francesca; Montefusco, Patrizia; Neves, José; Rocha, André

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this paper is the definition of a new methodology for carrying out security risk assessment in the air traffic management (ATM) domain so as to enhance security awareness and integrate secure and cost-effective design objectives. This process is carried out by modelling the system, identifying the assets, threats and vulnerabilities, prioritizing the threats and proposing cost-effective countermeasures for the weaknesses found. ATM security is concerned with securing ATM a...

  17. Social Costs of Gambling in the Czech Republic 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Petr; Bejdová, Markéta; Csémy, Ladislav; Weissová, Aneta

    2017-12-01

    Evidence about social costs of gambling is scarce and the methodology for their calculation has been a subject to strong criticism. We aimed to estimate social costs of gambling in the Czech Republic 2012. This retrospective, prevalence based cost of illness study builds on the revised methodology of Australian Productivity Commission. Social costs of gambling were estimated by combining epidemiological and economic data. Prevalence data on negative consequences of gambling were taken from existing national epidemiological studies. Economic data were taken from various national and international sources. Consequences of problem and pathological gambling only were taken into account. In 2012, the social costs of gambling in the Czech Republic were estimated to range between 541,619 and 619,608 thousands EUR. While personal and family costs accounted for 63% of all social costs, direct medical costs were estimated to range from 0.25 to 0.28% of all social costs only. This is the first study which estimates social costs of gambling in any of the Central and East European countries. It builds upon the solid evidence about prevalence of gambling related problems in the Czech Republic and satisfactorily reliable economic data. However, there is a number of limitations stemming from assumptions that were made, which suggest that the methodology for the calculation of the social costs of gambling needs further development.

  18. Improving Efficiency Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tibor, Laura C; Schultz, Stacy R; Menaker, Ronald; Weber, Bradley D; Ness, Jay; Smith, Paula; Young, Phillip M

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to increase efficiency in MR enterography using a time-driven activity-based costing methodology. In February 2015, a multidisciplinary team was formed to identify the personnel, equipment, space, and supply costs of providing outpatient MR enterography. The team mapped the current state, completed observations, performed timings, and calculated costs associated with each element of the process. The team used Pareto charts to understand the highest cost and most time-consuming activities, brainstormed opportunities, and assessed impact. Plan-do-study-act cycles were developed to test the changes, and run charts were used to monitor progress. The process changes consisted of revising the workflow associated with the preparation and administration of glucagon, with completed implementation in November 2015. The time-driven activity-based costing methodology allowed the radiology department to develop a process to more accurately identify the costs of providing MR enterography. The primary process modification was reassigning responsibility for the administration of glucagon from nurses to technologists. After implementation, the improvements demonstrated success by reducing non-value-added steps and cost by 13%, staff time by 16%, and patient process time by 17%. The saved process time was used to augment existing examination time slots to more accurately accommodate the entire enterographic examination. Anecdotal comments were captured to validate improved staff satisfaction within the multidisciplinary team. This process provided a successful outcome to address daily workflow frustrations that could not previously be improved. A multidisciplinary team was necessary to achieve success, in addition to the use of a structured problem-solving approach. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

    1990-03-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies. 10 refs., 8 figs., 32 tabs

  20. Integrated Methodology for Estimating Water Use in Mediterranean Agricultural Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George C. Zalidis

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural use is by far the largest consumer of fresh water worldwide, especially in the Mediterranean, where it has reached unsustainable levels, thus posing a serious threat to water resources. Having a good estimate of the water used in an agricultural area would help water managers create incentives for water savings at the farmer and basin level, and meet the demands of the European Water Framework Directive. This work presents an integrated methodology for estimating water use in Mediterranean agricultural areas. It is based on well established methods of estimating the actual evapotranspiration through surface energy fluxes, customized for better performance under the Mediterranean conditions: small parcel sizes, detailed crop pattern, and lack of necessary data. The methodology has been tested and validated on the agricultural plain of the river Strimonas (Greece using a time series of Terra MODIS and Landsat 5 TM satellite images, and used to produce a seasonal water use map at a high spatial resolution. Finally, a tool has been designed to implement the methodology with a user-friendly interface, in order to facilitate its operational use.

  1. Estimation of 18FDG doses's cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamza, Fatma; Amouri, W.; Jardak, I.; Kallel, F.; Charfeddine, S.; Guermazi, F.

    2013-01-01

    The cyclotron facility, essentially for medical use, is far from being a simple establishment of a dedicated device to accelerate particles producing a beta plus emitter radioelement. The cyclotron site encompasses more over all necessary equipments for the production and the quality control of considered radiotracer that 18 FDG is just one example. This facility is subject to strict standards in terms of radiopharmaceutical production, radiation level, pressure level and airflow resulting in the production of a drug submitted to the MA (Marketing Authorization). These multiple factors directly influence the final cost of the dose that remains to be reachable by the patient. The aim of this work is to estimate the cost of a dose of 18 FDG to ensure financial viability of the project while accessible to the patient. The cost of the facility will entail the following: buildings and utilities, equipment and operational cost. This calculation is possible only if we define in advance the type of cyclotron, which is bound to the market needs in particular the number of PET facilities, the number of scans per day and the radioactive decay of radioelement. Our study represents a simulation that considers some hypothesis. We assumed that the cyclotron is installed in Sousse and that the PET facilities number (positon emission tomography) is 6 in which 4 are located 2 hours away. For a PET scan, the average dose per patient is about 350 MBq (5 MBq/kg) and the exam duration is about 45 minutes. Each center performs 10 tests per day. In terms of fees, we considered device and building's cost, facility amortization, consumables (target, marking accessories), maintenance, remuneration expense and the annual electricity consumption. All our calculations have been reported to the number of working days per year. The estimates were made outside the customs duties and technical assistance that may last up to 2 years. Requirements and needs were estimated at 5.4 curies per day. For

  2. ExternE transport methodology for external cost evaluation of air pollution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, S. S.; Berkowicz, R.; Brandt, J.

    The report describes how the human exposure estimates based on NERI's human exposure modelling system (AirGIS) can improve the Danish data used for exposure factors in the ExternE Transport methodology. Initially, a brief description of the ExternE Tranport methodology is given and it is summarised...

  3. Estimating Maintenance Cost for Web Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion IVAN

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The current paper tackles the issue of determining a method for estimating maintenance costs for web applications. The current state of research in the field of web application maintenance is summarized and leading theories and results are highlighted. The cost of web maintenance is determined by the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks. Web maintenance tasks are categorized into content maintenance and technical maintenance. Research is centered on analyzing technical maintenance tasks. The research hypothesis is formulated on the assumption that the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks can be assessed based on the web application’s user interaction level, complexity and content update effort. Data regarding the costs of maintenance tasks is collected from 24 maintenance projects implemented by a web development company that tackles a wide area of web applications. Homogeneity and diversity of collected data is submitted for debate by presenting a sample of the data and depicting the overall size and comprehensive nature of the entire dataset. A set of metrics dedicated to estimating maintenance costs in web applications is defined based on conclusions formulated by analyzing the collected data and the theories and practices dominating the current state of research. Metrics are validated with regards to the initial research hypothesis. Research hypothesis are validated and conclusions are formulated on the topic of estimating the maintenance cost of web applications. The limits of the research process which represented the basis for the current paper are enunciated. Future research topics are submitted for debate.

  4. Estimating the economic cost of disability in Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Cullinan, John; Gannon, Brenda; Lyons, Seán

    2008-01-01

    Addressing the extra economic costs of disability seems a logical step towards alleviating elements of social exclusion for people with disabilities. This paper estimates the economic cost of disability in Ireland in terms of the additional spending needs that arise due to disability. It defines and estimates models of the private costs borne by families with individuals who have a disability in Ireland when compared to the wider population, both in general and by severity of illness. Our mod...

  5. A Probabilistic Cost Estimation Model for Unexploded Ordnance Removal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Poppe, Peter

    1999-01-01

    ...) contaminated sites that the services must decontaminate. Existing models for estimating the cost of UXO removal often require a high level of expertise and provide only a point estimate for the costs...

  6. 40 CFR 261.142 - Cost estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... hazardous waste, and the potential cost of closing the facility as a treatment, storage, and disposal... facility. (3) The cost estimate may not incorporate any salvage value that may be realized with the sale of... no later than 30 days after a change in a facility's operating plan or design that would increase the...

  7. 16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... RULE CONCERNING DISCLOSURES REGARDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND WATER USE OF CERTAIN HOME APPLIANCES AND... § 305.5 Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

  8. Project Cost Estimation for Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    For Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT), there are far too many projects that ultimately cost much more than initially planned. Because project nominations are linked to estimates of future funding and the analysis of system needs, the inaccur...

  9. Cost of Capital in Price-regulated Companies: the Case of Estonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priit Sander

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In case of price-regulated companies it is the role of appropriate government agencies to introduce clear, internally consistent, theoretically sound, and unambiguous methodology for finding the regulative cost of capital. The aim of the paper is to describe and analyze the cost of capital estimation methodology for regulated companies in Estonia and discuss some issues arising in applying this methodology. The current paper focuses on two topical issues associated with the estimation of regulative cost of capital in Estonia: estimation of market risk premium and inclusion of currency risk premium into the cost of capital. Current turmoil in financial markets has increased investors’ risk aversion as well as level of risks.

  10. Estimating productivity costs using the friction cost approach in practice: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kigozi, Jesse; Jowett, Sue; Lewis, Martyn; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

    2016-01-01

    The choice of the most appropriate approach to valuing productivity loss has received much debate in the literature. The friction cost approach has been proposed as a more appropriate alternative to the human capital approach when valuing productivity loss, although its application remains limited. This study reviews application of the friction cost approach in health economic studies and examines how its use varies in practice across different country settings. A systematic review was performed to identify economic evaluation studies that have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach and published in English from 1996 to 2013. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from studies meeting the inclusion criteria. The search yielded 46 studies from 12 countries. Of these, 28 were from the Netherlands. Thirty-five studies reported the length of friction period used, with only 16 stating explicitly the source of the friction period. Nine studies reported the elasticity correction factor used. The reported friction cost approach methods used to derive productivity costs varied in quality across studies from different countries. Few health economic studies have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach. The estimation and reporting of productivity costs using this method appears to differ in quality by country. The review reveals gaps and lack of clarity in reporting of methods for friction cost evaluation. Generating reporting guidelines and country-specific parameters for the friction cost approach is recommended if increased application and accuracy of the method is to be realized.

  11. Method for developing cost estimates for generic regulatory requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    The NRC has established a practice of performing regulatory analyses, reflecting costs as well as benefits, of proposed new or revised generic requirements. A method had been developed to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required for this purpose and for assigning priorities in the resolution of generic safety issues. The cost of a generic requirement is defined as the net present value of total lifetime cost incurred by the public, industry, and government in implementing the requirement for all affected plants. The method described here is for commercial light-water-reactor power plants. Estimating the cost for a generic requirement involves several steps: (1) identifying the activities that must be carried out to fully implement the requirement, (2) defining the work packages associated with the major activities, (3) identifying the individual elements of cost for each work package, (4) estimating the magnitude of each cost element, (5) aggregating individual plant costs over the plant lifetime, and (6) aggregating all plant costs and generic costs to produce a total, national, present value of lifetime cost for the requirement. The method developed addresses all six steps. In this paper, we discuss on the first three

  12. Cost estimate of electricity produced by TPV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palfinger, Günther; Bitnar, Bernd; Durisch, Wilhelm; Mayor, Jean-Claude; Grützmacher, Detlev; Gobrecht, Jens

    2003-05-01

    A crucial parameter for the market penetration of TPV is its electricity production cost. In this work a detailed cost estimate is performed for a Si photocell based TPV system, which was developed for electrically self-powered operation of a domestic heating system. The results are compared to a rough estimate of cost of electricity for a projected GaSb based system. For the calculation of the price of electricity, a lifetime of 20 years, an interest rate of 4.25% per year and maintenance costs of 1% of the investment are presumed. To determine the production cost of TPV systems with a power of 12-20 kW, the costs of the TPV components and 100 EUR kW-1el,peak for assembly and miscellaneous were estimated. Alternatively, the system cost for the GaSb system was derived from the cost of the photocells and from the assumption that they account for 35% of the total system cost. The calculation was done for four different TPV scenarios which include a Si based prototype system with existing technology (etasys = 1.0%), leading to 3000 EUR kW-1el,peak, an optimized Si based system using conventional, available technology (etasys = 1.5%), leading to 900 EUR kW-1el,peak, a further improved system with future technology (etasys = 5%), leading to 340 EUR kW-1el,peak and a GaSb based system (etasys = 12.3% with recuperator), leading to 1900 EUR kW-1el,peak. Thus, prices of electricity from 6 to 25 EURcents kWh-1el (including gas of about 3.5 EURcents kWh-1) were calculated and compared with those of fuel cells (31 EURcents kWh-1) and gas engines (23 EURcents kWh-1).

  13. Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMasi, Joseph A; Grabowski, Henry G; Hansen, Ronald W

    2016-05-01

    The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Estimating pharmacy level prescription drug acquisition costs for third-party reimbursement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreling, D H; Kirk, K W

    1986-07-01

    Accurate payment for the acquisition costs of drug products dispensed is an important consideration in a third-party prescription drug program. Two alternative methods of estimating these costs among pharmacies were derived and compared. First, pharmacists were surveyed to determine the purchase discounts offered to them by wholesalers. A 10.00% modal and 11.35% mean discount resulted for 73 responding pharmacists. Second, cost-plus percents derived from gross profit margins of wholesalers were calculated and applied to wholesaler product costs to estimate pharmacy level acquisition costs. Cost-plus percents derived from National Median and Southwestern Region wholesaler figures were 9.27% and 10.10%, respectively. A comparison showed the two methods of estimating acquisition costs would result in similar acquisition cost estimates. Adopting a cost-plus estimating approach is recommended because it avoids potential pricing manipulations by wholesalers and manufacturers that would negate improvements in drug product reimbursement accuracy.

  15. Estimating the cost of disposal for Canada's nuclear fuel waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ates, Y.

    1996-07-01

    Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) prepared an Environmental Impact Statement and nine supporting Primary Reference Documents on the concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste. This report summarizes the basis of the cost estimate which is provided in the primary reference document on engineering for a disposal facility. The scope of the cost estimate is explained by describing the key features of the disposal facility design, by noting the major assumptions made in preparing the estimates, and by listing the included and excluded cost components. An activity-based project planning and control method is explained whereby the project schedule, costs, and personnel requirements are interlinked; forming an integrated perspective on the total project life cycle. The summary and distribution of costs in each project stage by major facility or activity are presented. The results of studies which reviewed the overall cost estimate are also described. These studies indicate that, within the scope, the estimate is reasonable and compares well with similar international studies. (author)

  16. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles unique cost estimating requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, P.; Apgar, H.; Stukes, S.; Sterk, S.

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), also referred to as drones, are aerial platforms that fly without a human pilot onboard. UAVs are controlled autonomously by a computer in the vehicle or under the remote control of a pilot stationed at a fixed ground location. There are a wide variety of drone shapes, sizes, configurations, complexities, and characteristics. Use of these devices by the Department of Defense (DoD), NASA, civil and commercial organizations continues to grow. UAVs are commonly used for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR). They are also use for combat operations, and civil applications, such as firefighting, non-military security work, surveillance of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, power lines and country borders). UAVs are often preferred for missions that require sustained persistence (over 4 hours in duration), or are “ too dangerous, dull or dirty” for manned aircraft. Moreover, they can offer significant acquisition and operations cost savings over traditional manned aircraft. Because of these unique characteristics and missions, UAV estimates require some unique estimating methods. This paper describes a framework for estimating UAV systems total ownership cost including hardware components, software design, and operations. The challenge of collecting data, testing the sensitivities of cost drivers, and creating cost estimating relationships (CERs) for each key work breakdown structure (WBS) element is discussed. The autonomous operation of UAVs is especially challenging from a software perspective.

  17. Oil and gas pipeline construction cost analysis and developing regression models for cost estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaduri, Ravi Kiran

    In this study, cost data for 180 pipelines and 136 compressor stations have been analyzed. On the basis of the distribution analysis, regression models have been developed. Material, Labor, ROW and miscellaneous costs make up the total cost of a pipeline construction. The pipelines are analyzed based on different pipeline lengths, diameter, location, pipeline volume and year of completion. In a pipeline construction, labor costs dominate the total costs with a share of about 40%. Multiple non-linear regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of pipelines for various cross-sectional areas, lengths and locations. The Compressor stations are analyzed based on the capacity, year of completion and location. Unlike the pipeline costs, material costs dominate the total costs in the construction of compressor station, with an average share of about 50.6%. Land costs have very little influence on the total costs. Similar regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of compressor station for various capacities and locations.

  18. Selected Tether Applications Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeley, Michael G.

    1988-01-01

    Diverse cost-estimating techniques and data combined into single program. Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM 1.0) is interactive accounting software tool providing means for combining several independent cost-estimating programs into fully-integrated mathematical model capable of assessing costs, analyzing benefits, providing file-handling utilities, and putting out information in text and graphical forms to screen, printer, or plotter. Program based on Lotus 1-2-3, version 2.0. Developed to provide clear, concise traceability and visibility into methodology and rationale for estimating costs and benefits of operations of Space Station tether deployer system.

  19. Social opportunity cost of capital: empirical estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Townsend, S.

    1978-02-01

    This report develops estimates of the social-opportunity cost of public capital. The private and social costs of capital are found to diverge primarily because of the effects of corporate and personal income taxes. Following Harberger, the social-opportunity cost of capital is approximated by a weighted average of the returns to different classes of savers and investors where the weights are the flows of savings or investments in each class multiplied by the relevant elasticity. Estimates of these parameters are obtained and the social-opportunity cost of capital is determined to be in the range of 6.2 to 10.8%, depending upon the parameter values used. Uncertainty is found to affect the social-opportunity cost of capital in two ways. First, some allowance must be made for the chance of failure or at least of not realizing claims of a project's proponents. Second, a particular government project will change the expected variability of the returns to the government's entire portfolio of projects. In the absence of specific information about each project, the use of the economy-wide average default and risk adjustments is suggested. These are included in the empirical estimates reported. International capital markets make available private capital, the price of which is not distorted by the U.S. tax system. The inclusion of foreign sources slightly reduces the social-opportunity cost of capital. 21 references.

  20. Estimating the mental health costs of racial discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanuel Elias

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD. However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimated indirect non-health related productivity costs. In this study, we estimate the burden of disease due to exposure to racial discrimination and measure the cost of this exposure. Methods Using prevalence surveys and data on the association of racial discrimination with health outcomes from a global meta-analysis, we apply a cost of illness method to measure the impact of racial discrimination. This estimate indicates the direct health cost attributable to racial discrimination and we convert the estimates to monetary values based on conventional parameters. Results Racial discrimination costs the Australian economy 235,452 in disability adjusted life years lost, equivalent to $37.9 billion per annum, roughly 3.02% of annual gross domestic product (GDP over 2001–11, indicating a sizeable loss for the economy. Conclusion Substantial cost is incurred due to increased prevalence of racial discrimination as a result of its association with negative health outcomes (e.g. depression, anxiety and PTSD. This implies that potentially significant cost savings can be made through measures that target racial discrimination. Our research contributes to the debate on the social impact of racial discrimination, with implications for policies and efforts addressing it.

  1. Assessment of compliance with regulatory requirements for a best estimate methodology for evaluation of ECCS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Un Chul; Jang, Jin Wook; Lim, Ho Gon; Jeong, Ik [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Sim, Suk Ku [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2000-03-15

    Best estimate methodology for evaluation of ECCS proposed by KEPCO(KREM) os using thermal-hydraulic best-estimate code and the topical report for the methodology is described that it meets the regulatory requirement of USNRC regulatory guide. In this research the assessment of compliance with regulatory guide. In this research the assessment of compliance with regulatory requirements for the methodology is performed. The state of licensing procedure of other countries and best-estimate evaluation methodologies of Europe is also investigated, The applicability of models and propriety of procedure of uncertainty analysis of KREM are appraised and compliance with USNRC regulatory guide is assessed.

  2. Cost estimating Brayton and Stirling engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortgang, H. R.

    1980-01-01

    Brayton and Stirling engines were analyzed for cost and selling price for production quantities ranging from 1000 to 400,000 units per year. Parts and components were subjected to indepth scrutiny to determine optimum manufacturing processes coupled with make or buy decisions on materials and small parts. Tooling and capital equipment costs were estimated for each detail and/or assembly. For low annual production volumes, the Brayton engine appears to have a lower cost and selling price than the Stirling Engine. As annual production quantities increase, the Stirling becomes a lower cost engine than the Brayton. Both engines could benefit cost wise if changes were made in materials, design and manufacturing process as annual production quantities increase.

  3. Low-income DSM Programs: Methodological approach to determining the cost-effectiveness of coordinated partnerships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.A.; Hill, L.J.

    1994-05-01

    As governments at all levels become increasingly budget-conscious, expenditures on low-income, demand-side management (DSM) programs are being evaluated more on the basis of efficiency at the expense of equity considerations. Budgetary pressures have also caused government agencies to emphasize resource leveraging and coordination with electric and gas utilities as a means of sharing the expenses of low-income programs. The increased involvement of electric and gas utilities in coordinated low-income DSM programs, in turn, has resulted in greater emphasis on estimating program cost-effectiveness. The objective of this study is to develop a methodological approach to estimate the cost- effectiveness of coordinated low-income DSM programs, given the special features that distinguish these programs from other utility-operated DSM programs. The general approach used in this study was to (1) select six coordinated low-income DSM programs from among those currently operating across the United States, (2) examine the main features of these programs, and (3) determine the conceptual and pragmatic problems associated with estimating their cost-effectiveness. Three types of coordination between government and utility cosponsors were identified. At one extreme, local agencies operate {open_quotes}parallel{close_quotes} programs, each of which is fully funded by a single sponsor (e.g., one funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and the other by a utility). At the other extreme are highly {open_quotes}coupled{close_quotes} programs that capitalize on the unique capabilities and resources offered by each cosponsor. In these programs, agencies employ a combination of utility and government funds to deliver weatherization services as part of an integrated effort. In between are {open_quotes}supplemental{close_quotes} programs that utilize resources to supplement the agency`s government-funded weatherization, with no changes to the operation of that program.

  4. Transmission embedded cost allocation methodology with consideration of system reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hur, D.; Park, J.-K.; Yoo, C.-I.; Kim, B.H.

    2004-01-01

    In a vertically integrated utility industry, the cost of reliability, as a separate service, has not received much rigorous analysis. However, as a cornerstone of restructuring the industry, the transmission service pricing must change to be consistent with, and supportive of, competitive wholesale electricity markets. This paper focuses on the equitable allocation of transmission network embedded costs including the transmission reliability cost based on the contributions of each generator to branch flows under normal conditions as well as the line outage impact factor under a variety of load levels. A numerical example on a six-bus system is given to illustrate the applications of the proposed methodology. (author)

  5. Cost estimation and management over the life cycle of metallurgical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigates whether all expected costs over the life cycle of metallurgical research projects are included in initial, normal and fi nal cost estimates, and whether these costs are managed throughout a project's life cycle since there is not enough emphasis on the accurate estimation of costs and their management ...

  6. Cost Estimates and Investment Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emhjellen, Kjetil; Emhjellen Magne; Osmundsen, Petter

    2001-08-01

    When evaluating new investment projects, oil companies traditionally use the discounted cashflow method. This method requires expected cashflows in the numerator and a risk adjusted required rate of return in the denominator in order to calculate net present value. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a project is one of the major cashflows used to calculate net present value. Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. In the oil industry and many other industries, it is common practice to report a CAPEX that is the estimated 50/50 (median) CAPEX instead of the estimated expected (expected value) CAPEX. In this article we demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX, when the cost distributions are asymmetric, causes project valuation errors and therefore may lead to wrong investment decisions with acceptance of projects that have negative net present values. (author)

  7. An LWR design decision Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leahy, T.J.; Rees, D.C.; Young, J.

    1982-01-01

    While all parties involved in nuclear plant regulation endeavor to make decisions which optimize the considerations of plant safety and financial impacts, these decisions are generally made without the benefit of a systematic and rigorous approach to the questions confronting the decision makers. A Design Decision Methodology has been developed which provides such a systematic approach. By employing this methodology, which makes use of currently accepted probabilistic risk assessment techniques and cost estimation, informed decisions may be made against a background of comparisons between the relative levels of safety and costs associated with various design alternatives

  8. 48 CFR 1852.216-84 - Estimated cost and incentive fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Provisions and Clauses 1852.216-84 Estimated cost and incentive fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(d), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Incentive Fee (OCT 1996) The target cost of this contract is $___. The target fee of this contract is $___. The total target cost and target fee as contemplated by the...

  9. Performance-based, cost- and time-effective PCB analytical methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarado, J. S.

    1998-01-01

    Laboratory applications for the analysis of PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls) in environmental matrices such as soil/sediment/sludge and oil/waste oil were evaluated for potential reduction in waste, source reduction, and alternative techniques for final determination. As a consequence, new procedures were studied for solvent substitution, miniaturization of extraction and cleanups, minimization of reagent consumption, reduction of cost per analysis, and reduction of time. These new procedures provide adequate data that meet all the performance requirements for the determination of PCBs. Use of the new procedures reduced costs for all sample preparation techniques. Time and cost were also reduced by combining the new sample preparation procedures with the power of fast gas chromatography. Separation of Aroclor 1254 was achieved in less than 6 min by using DB-1 and SPB-608 columns. With the greatly shortened run times, reproducibility can be tested quickly and consequently with low cost. With performance-based methodology, the applications presented here can be applied now, without waiting for regulatory approval

  10. Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeMuth, S.F.; Franklin, A.L.

    1996-01-01

    It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford

  11. Estimating remediation costs for the Montclair radium superfund sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, M.J.

    1995-01-01

    The Montclair/West Orange and Glen Ridge Superfund Sites, located in Essex County, NJ, are contaminated to varying degrees with radioactive materials. The waste originated from radium processing facilities prevalent in the area during the early 1900s. The design for remediation of these sites is managed by Bechtel National, Inc. on behalf of the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Kansas City District, which administers the project through an interagency agreement with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Design efforts for the project began in 1990. A portion of the scope, which is the topic of this article, was preparing the remediation costs estimates. These estimates were to be prepared from the detailed design packages; the Corps of Engineers required that the estimates were prepared using the Micro Computer-Aided Cost Estimating System (MCACES). This article discusses the design methods used, provides an overview of MCACES, and discusses the structure and preparation of the cost estimate and its uses. However, the main focus of the article is the methods used to generate the required project-specific cost estimate format for this project. 6 figs

  12. Venture Guidance Appraisal cost estimates for groundwater protection Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moyer, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    Cost estimates were prepared for closure options at criteria waste sites and alternatives for new disposal facilities for hazardous wastes, mixed wastes, low level radioactive wastes and slurry from liquid waste treatment facilities. Because these cost estimates will be used in the Groundwater Protection EIS, the goal was to develop ''enveloping'' costs, i.e., the alternative or option chosen for execution at a later date should cost no more than the estimate. This report summarizes scenarios for making detailed cost estimates. Also included are unit costs for disposition of potential excavations, for operational activities, and for groundwater monitoring and site maintenance after closure of the site. The cost numbers presented are intended for study purposes only and not for budgetary activities

  13. Cost estimate of bovine tuberculosis to Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tschopp, Rea; Hattendorf, Jan; Roth, Felix; Choudhury, Adnan Ali Khan; Choudhoury, Adnan; Shaw, Alexandra; Aseffa, Abraham; Zinsstag, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    While bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been eliminated in some industrialized countries, it prevails worldwide, particularly in Africa. In Ethiopia, BTB is prevalent as numerous studies have shown its occurrence in livestock and in abattoirs but it has not been demonstrated in wildlife and only very few cases have been found in humans. The objective of this study is to estimate the cost of BTB to Ethiopia with the aim of informing Ethiopian policy on options for BTB control. BTB in livestock affects both animal productivity and herd demographic composition. The Livestock Development Planning System (LDPS2, FAO) was modified to allow for stochastic simulation of parameters. We performed an incremental cost of disease analysis, comparing livestock production with and without BTB. For the rural scenario we considered an endemically stable 4 % comparative intradermal test (CIDT) prevalence and for the urban scenario an endemically stable 32 % CIDT prevalence among cattle. The net present value of rural Ethiopian livestock products in 2005 is estimated at 65.7 billion (thousand million) Ethiopian Birr (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 53.8-77.7 billion Birr), which is the equivalent of 7.5 billion US$ (95 %CI 6.1-8.9 billion US$) at a rate of 8.7 Birr per US$ in 2005. The cost of BTB ranges from 646 million Birr (75.2 million US$) in 2005 to 3.1 Billion Birr in 2011 (358 million US$) but is within the range of uncertainty of our estimate and can thus not be distinguished from zero. The cost of disease in the urban livestock production ranges from 5 to 42 million Birr (500,000-4.9 million US$) between 2005 and 2011 but is also within the range of uncertainty of our estimate. Our study shows no measurable loss in asset value or cost of disease due to BTB in rural and urban production systems in Ethiopia. This does not mean that there is not a real cost of disease, but the variability of the productivity parameters and prices are high and would require more precise estimates

  14. Failing to Estimate the Costs of Offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus

    2016-01-01

    This article investigates cost estimation errors in the context of offshoring. It is argued that an imprecise estimation of the costs related to implementing a firm activity in a foreign location has a negative impact on the process performance of that activity. Performance is deterred...... as operations are likely to be disrupted by managerial distraction and resource misallocation. It is also argued that this relationship is mitigated by the extent to which firms use modularity to coordinate the activity but worsened by the extent to which ongoing communication is used. The results, based...

  15. Methods for the estimation of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence cost-effectiveness threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claxton, Karl; Martin, Steve; Soares, Marta; Rice, Nigel; Spackman, Eldon; Hinde, Sebastian; Devlin, Nancy; Smith, Peter C; Sculpher, Mark

    2015-02-01

    when PCTs are under more financial pressure and are more likely to be disinvesting than investing. This indicates that the central estimate of the threshold is likely to be an overestimate for all technologies which impose net costs on the NHS and the appropriate threshold to apply should be lower for technologies which have a greater impact on NHS costs. The central estimate is based on identifying a preferred analysis at each stage based on the analysis that made the best use of available information, whether or not the assumptions required appeared more reasonable than the other alternatives available, and which provided a more complete picture of the likely health effects of a change in expenditure. However, the limitation of currently available data means that there is substantial uncertainty associated with the estimate of the overall threshold. The methods go some way to providing an empirical estimate of the scale of opportunity costs the NHS faces when considering whether or not the health benefits associated with new technologies are greater than the health that is likely to be lost elsewhere in the NHS. Priorities for future research include estimating the threshold for subsequent waves of expenditure and outcome data, for example by utilising expenditure and outcomes available at the level of Clinical Commissioning Groups as well as additional data collected on QoL and updated estimates of incidence (by age and gender) and duration of disease. Nonetheless, the study also starts to make the other NHS patients, who ultimately bear the opportunity costs of such decisions, less abstract and more 'known' in social decisions. The National Institute for Health Research-Medical Research Council Methodology Research Programme.

  16. Reducing Inventory System Costs by Using Robust Demand Estimators

    OpenAIRE

    Raymond A. Jacobs; Harvey M. Wagner

    1989-01-01

    Applications of inventory theory typically use historical data to estimate demand distribution parameters. Imprecise knowledge of the demand distribution adds to the usual replenishment costs associated with stochastic demands. Only limited research has been directed at the problem of choosing cost effective statistical procedures for estimating these parameters. Available theoretical findings on estimating the demand parameters for (s, S) inventory replenishment policies are limited by their...

  17. Increasing the competitiveness of maintenance contract rates by using an alternative methodology for the calculation of average vehicle maintenance costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Carstens

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Companies tend to outsource transport to fleet management companies to increase efficiencies if transport is a non-core activity. The provision of fleet management services on contract introduces a certain amount of financial risk to the fleet management company, specifically fixed rate maintenance contracts. The quoted rate needs to be sufficient and also competitive in the market. Currently the quoted maintenance rates are based on the maintenance specifications of the manufacturer and the risk management approach of the fleet management company. This is usually reflected in a contingency that is included in the quoted maintenance rate. An alternative methodology for calculating the average maintenance cost for a vehicle fleet is proposed based on the actual maintenance expenditures of the vehicles and accepted statistical techniques. The proposed methodology results in accurate estimates (and associated confidence limits of the true average maintenance cost and can beused as a basis for the maintenance quote.

  18. The unit cost factors and calculation methods for decommissioning - Cost estimation of nuclear research facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwan-Seong Jeong; Dong-Gyu Lee; Chong-Hun Jung; Kune-Woo Lee

    2007-01-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: The uncertainties of decommissioning costs increase high due to several conditions. Decommissioning cost estimation depends on the complexity of nuclear installations, its site-specific physical and radiological inventories. Therefore, the decommissioning costs of nuclear research facilities must be estimated in accordance with the detailed sub-tasks and resources by the tasks of decommissioning activities. By selecting the classified activities and resources, costs are calculated by the items and then the total costs of all decommissioning activities are reshuffled to match with its usage and objectives. And the decommissioning cost of nuclear research facilities is calculated by applying a unit cost factor method on which classification of decommissioning works fitted with the features and specifications of decommissioning objects and establishment of composition factors are based. Decommissioning costs of nuclear research facilities are composed of labor cost, equipment and materials cost. Of these three categorical costs, the calculation of labor costs are very important because decommissioning activities mainly depend on labor force. Labor costs in decommissioning activities are calculated on the basis of working time consumed in decommissioning objects and works. The working times are figured out of unit cost factors and work difficulty factors. Finally, labor costs are figured out by using these factors as parameters of calculation. The accuracy of decommissioning cost estimation results is much higher compared to the real decommissioning works. (authors)

  19. A methodology to calibrate water saturation estimated from 4D seismic data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davolio, Alessandra; Maschio, Célio; José Schiozer, Denis

    2014-01-01

    Time-lapse seismic data can be used to estimate saturation changes within a reservoir, which is valuable information for reservoir management as it plays an important role in updating reservoir simulation models. The process of updating reservoir properties, history matching, can incorporate estimated saturation changes qualitatively or quantitatively. For quantitative approaches, reliable information from 4D seismic data is important. This work proposes a methodology to calibrate the volume of water in the estimated saturation maps, as these maps can be wrongly estimated due to problems with seismic signals (such as noise, errors associated with data processing and resolution issues). The idea is to condition the 4D seismic data to known information provided by engineering, in this case the known amount of injected and produced water in the field. The application of the proposed methodology in an inversion process (previously published) that estimates saturation from 4D seismic data is presented, followed by a discussion concerning the use of such data in a history matching process. The methodology is applied to a synthetic dataset to validate the results, the main of which are: (1) reduction of the effects of noise and errors in the estimated saturation, yielding more reliable data to be used quantitatively or qualitatively and (2) an improvement in the properties update after using this data in a history matching procedure. (paper)

  20. Assessment of radiotherapy photon beams: A practical and low cost methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reis, C.Q.M.; Nicolucci, P.

    2017-01-01

    Dosimetric properties of radiation beams used in radiotherapy are directly related to the energy spectrum produced by the treatment unit. Therefore, the development of methodologies to evaluate in a simple and accurate way the spectra of clinical beams can help establishing the quality control of the treatment. The purpose of this study is to present a practical and low cost methodology for determining primary spectra of radiotherapy photon beams from transmission measurements in attenuators of aluminum and using the method of the inverse Laplace transform. Monte Carlo simulation with PENELOPE code was used in order to evaluate and validate the reconstructed spectra by the calculation of dosimetric parameters that characterize the beam. Percentage depth dose values simulated with a 6 MV reconstructed spectrum shows maximum difference of 4.4% when compared to values measured at the corresponding clinical beam. For a 10 MV beam that difference was around 4.2%. Results obtained in this study confirm the adequacy of the proposed methodology for assessing primary photon beams produced by clinical accelerators. - Highlights: • Primary spectra of radiotherapy photon beams are determined from transmission measurements. • Monte Carlo calculations are used to evaluate the method of the inverse Laplace transform. • The proposed methodology is practical and of low cost for clinical purposes. • Results are in fair agreement with literature and clinical data.

  1. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2011-01-01

    The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis...... for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS) Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital...... Preservation (CMDP), the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been...

  2. AES, Automated Construction Cost Estimation System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holder, D.A.

    1995-01-01

    A - Description of program or function: AES (Automated Estimating System) enters and updates the detailed cost, schedule, contingency, and escalation information contained in a typical construction or other project cost estimates. It combines this information to calculate both un-escalated and escalated and cash flow values for the project. These costs can be reported at varying levels of detail. AES differs from previous versions in at least the following ways: The schedule is entered at the WBS-Participant, Activity level - multiple activities can be assigned to each WBS-Participant combination; the spending curve is defined at the schedule activity level and a weighing factor is defined which determines percentage of cost for the WBS-Participant applied to the schedule activity; Schedule by days instead of Fiscal Year/Quarter; Sales Tax is applied at the Line Item Level- a sales tax codes is selected to indicate Material, Large Single Item, or Professional Services; a 'data filter' has been added to allow user to define data the report is to be generated for. B - Method of solution: Average Escalation Rate: The average escalation for a Bill of is calculated in three steps. 1. A table of quarterly escalation factors is calculated based on the base fiscal year and quarter of the project entered in the estimate record and the annual escalation rates entered in the Standard Value File. 2. The percentage distribution of costs by quarter for the Bill of Material is calculated based on the schedule entered and the curve type. 3. The percent in each fiscal year and quarter in the distribution is multiplied by the escalation factor for the fiscal year and quarter. The sum of these results is the average escalation rate for that Bill of Material. Schedule by curve: The allocation of costs to specific time periods is dependent on three inputs, starting schedule date, ending schedule date, and the percentage of costs allocated to each quarter. Contingency Analysis: The

  3. Methodology to Calculate the Costs of a Floating Offshore Renewable Energy Farm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Castro-Santos

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a general methodology to calculate the life-cycle cost of floating offshore renewable energy devices, applying it to wave energy and wind energy devices. It is accounts for the contributions of the six main phases of their life-cycle: concept definition, design and development, manufacturing, installation, exploitation and dismantling, the costs of which have been defined. Moreover, the energy produced is also taken into account to calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy of a floating offshore renewable energy farm. The methodology proposed has been applied to two renewable energy devices: a floating offshore wave energy device and a floating offshore wind energy device. Two locations have been considered: Aguçadoura and São Pedro de Moel, both in Portugal. Results indicate that the most important cost in terms of the life-cycle of a floating offshore renewable energy farm is the exploitation cost, followed by the manufacturing and the installation cost. In addition, the best area in terms of costs is the same independently of the type of floating offshore renewable energy considered: Aguçadoura. However, the results in terms of Levelized Cost of Energy are different: Aguçadoura is better when considering wave energy technology and the São Pedro de Moel region is the best option when considering floating wind energy technology. The method proposed aims to give a direct approach to calculate the main life-cycle cost of a floating offshore renewable energy farm. It helps to assess its feasibility and evaluating the relevant characteristics that influence it the most.

  4. Structural Estimation of Stock Market Participation Costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    2013-01-01

    education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor...

  5. Preliminary ITER cost and schedule estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    The cost, manpower requirements, and schedule estimates for the realization of the ITER tokamak have been studied during the Conceptual Design Activities, as a result of work by the ITER Management Committee. This work was completed during the January-March, 1990 joint work session, and is presented in this report. A possible schedule shows completion of the engineering design phase in 1995, with 180 professionals, at a cost of about $250M. The construction would be completed in 2004 with a rise in professional staff to 300, and a total cost of $4900M. The machine would be operable over an 18-year period, at an annual operating cost averaging $290M. 2 figs

  6. A level playing field: Obtaining consistent cost estimates for advanced reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R. II; Rohm, H.H.; Humphreys, J.R. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    Rules and guidelines for developing cost estimates are given which provide a means for presenting cost estimates for advanced concepts on a consistent and equitable basis. For advanced reactor designs, the scope of a cost estimate includes the plant capital cost, the operating and maintenance cost, the fuel cycle cost, and the cost of decommissioning. Each element is subdivided as is necessary to provide a common reporting format for all power plant concepts. The total generation cost is taken to be a suitable choice for a summary figure of merit. To test the application of the rules and guidelines as well as developing reference costs for current technologies, several different sized coal and pressurized water reactor plant cost estimates have been prepared

  7. Healthcare tariffs for specialist inpatient neurorehabilitation services: rationale and development of a UK casemix and costing methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner-Stokes, Lynne; Sutch, Stephen; Dredge, Robert

    2012-03-01

    To describe the rationale and development of a casemix model and costing methodology for tariff development for specialist neurorehabilitation services in the UK. Patients with complex needs incur higher treatment costs. Fair payment should be weighted in proportion to costs of providing treatment, and should allow for variation over time CASEMIX MODEL AND BAND-WEIGHTING: Case complexity is measured by the Rehabilitation Complexity Scale (RCS). Cases are divided into five bands of complexity, based on the total RCS score. The principal determinant of costs in rehabilitation is staff time. Total staff hours/week (estimated from the Northwick Park Nursing and Therapy Dependency Scales) are analysed within each complexity band, through cross-sectional analysis of parallel ratings. A 'band-weighting' factor is derived from the relative proportions of staff time within each of the five bands. Total unit treatment costs are obtained from retrospective analysis of provider hospitals' budget and accounting statements. Mean bed-day costs (total unit cost/occupied bed days) are divided broadly into 'variable' and 'non-variable' components. In the weighted costing model, the band-weighting factor is applied to the variable portion of the bed-day cost to derive a banded cost, and thence a set of cost-multipliers. Preliminary data from one unit are presented to illustrate how this weighted costing model will be applied to derive a multilevel banded payment model, based on serial complexity ratings, to allow for change over time.

  8. Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) Cost Estimation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Innovation Laboratory, Inc., proposes to build a tool to estimate airline costs under TBO. This tool includes a cost model that explicitly reasons about traffic...

  9. A proposed approach to backfit decision-making using risk assessment and benefit-cost methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Donnell, E.P.; Raney, T.J.

    1984-01-01

    This paper outlines a proposed approach to backfit decision-making which utilizes quantitative risk assessment techniques, benefit-cost methodology and decision criteria. In general terms, it is structured to provide an objective framework for decision-making aimed at ensuring a positive return on backfit investment while allowing for inclusion of subjective value judgments by the decision-maker. The distributions of the independent variables are combined to arrive at an overall probability distribution for the benefit-cost ratio. In this way, the decision-maker can explicitly establish the probability or level of confidence that a particular backfit will yield benefits in excess of cost. An example is presented demonstrating the application of methodology to a specific plant backfit. (orig.)

  10. A bottom-up approach to estimating cost elements of REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merger Eduard

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several previous global REDD+ cost studies have been conducted, demonstrating that payments for maintaining forest carbon stocks have significant potential to be a cost-effective mechanism for climate change mitigation. These studies have mostly followed highly aggregated top-down approaches without estimating the full range of REDD+ costs elements, thus underestimating the actual costs of REDD+. Based on three REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, representing an area of 327,825 ha, this study explicitly adopts a bottom-up approach to data assessment. By estimating opportunity, implementation, transaction and institutional costs of REDD+ we develop a practical and replicable methodological framework to consistently assess REDD+ cost elements. Results Based on historical land use change patterns, current region-specific economic conditions and carbon stocks, project-specific opportunity costs ranged between US$ -7.8 and 28.8 tCOxxxx for deforestation and forest degradation drivers such as agriculture, fuel wood production, unsustainable timber extraction and pasture expansion. The mean opportunity costs for the three projects ranged between US$ 10.1 – 12.5 tCO2. Implementation costs comprised between 89% and 95% of total project costs (excluding opportunity costs ranging between US$ 4.5 - 12.2 tCO2 for a period of 30 years. Transaction costs for measurement, reporting, verification (MRV, and other carbon market related compliance costs comprised a minor share, between US$ 0.21 - 1.46 tCO2. Similarly, the institutional costs comprised around 1% of total REDD+ costs in a range of US$ 0.06 – 0.11 tCO2. Conclusions The use of bottom-up approaches to estimate REDD+ economics by considering regional variations in economic conditions and carbon stocks has been shown to be an appropriate approach to provide policy and decision-makers robust economic information on REDD+. The assessment of opportunity costs is a crucial first step to

  11. A bottom-up approach to estimating cost elements of REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Several previous global REDD+ cost studies have been conducted, demonstrating that payments for maintaining forest carbon stocks have significant potential to be a cost-effective mechanism for climate change mitigation. These studies have mostly followed highly aggregated top-down approaches without estimating the full range of REDD+ costs elements, thus underestimating the actual costs of REDD+. Based on three REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, representing an area of 327,825 ha, this study explicitly adopts a bottom-up approach to data assessment. By estimating opportunity, implementation, transaction and institutional costs of REDD+ we develop a practical and replicable methodological framework to consistently assess REDD+ cost elements. Results Based on historical land use change patterns, current region-specific economic conditions and carbon stocks, project-specific opportunity costs ranged between US$ -7.8 and 28.8 tCOxxxx for deforestation and forest degradation drivers such as agriculture, fuel wood production, unsustainable timber extraction and pasture expansion. The mean opportunity costs for the three projects ranged between US$ 10.1 – 12.5 tCO2. Implementation costs comprised between 89% and 95% of total project costs (excluding opportunity costs) ranging between US$ 4.5 - 12.2 tCO2 for a period of 30 years. Transaction costs for measurement, reporting, verification (MRV), and other carbon market related compliance costs comprised a minor share, between US$ 0.21 - 1.46 tCO2. Similarly, the institutional costs comprised around 1% of total REDD+ costs in a range of US$ 0.06 – 0.11 tCO2. Conclusions The use of bottom-up approaches to estimate REDD+ economics by considering regional variations in economic conditions and carbon stocks has been shown to be an appropriate approach to provide policy and decision-makers robust economic information on REDD+. The assessment of opportunity costs is a crucial first step to provide information on the

  12. Time-driven activity-based costing to estimate cost of care at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Jordan A; Mistry, Bipin; Hardy, Stephen; Fracchia, Mary Shannon; Hersh, Cheryl; Wentland, Carissa; Vadakekalam, Joseph; Kaplan, Robert; Hartnick, Christopher J

    2017-09-01

    Providing high-value healthcare to patients is increasingly becoming an objective for providers including those at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Measuring value has two components: 1) identify relevant health outcomes and 2) determine relevant treatment costs. Via their inherent structure, multidisciplinary care units consolidate care for complex patients. However, their potential impact on decreasing healthcare costs is less clear. The goal of this study was to estimate the potential cost savings of treating patients with laryngeal clefts at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Retrospective chart review. Time-driven activity-based costing was used to estimate the cost of care for patients with laryngeal cleft seen between 2008 and 2013 at the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary Pediatric Aerodigestive Center. Retrospective chart review was performed to identify clinic utilization by patients as well as patient diet outcomes after treatment. Patients were stratified into neurologically complex and neurologically noncomplex groups. The cost of care for patients requiring surgical intervention was five and three times as expensive of the cost of care for patients not requiring surgery for neurologically noncomplex and complex patients, respectively. Following treatment, 50% and 55% of complex and noncomplex patients returned to normal diet, whereas 83% and 87% of patients experienced improved diets, respectively. Additionally, multidisciplinary team-based care for children with laryngeal clefts potentially achieves 20% to 40% cost savings. These findings demonstrate how time-driven activity-based costing can be used to estimate and compare patient costs in multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. 2c. Laryngoscope, 127:2152-2158, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  13. A new approach for product cost estimation using data envelopment analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adil Salam

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation of new products has always been difficult as only few design, manufacturing and operational features will be known. In these situations, parametric or non-parametric methods are commonly used to estimate the cost of a product given the corresponding cost drivers. The parametric models use priori determined cost function where the parameters of the function are evaluated from historical data. Non-parametric methods, on the other hand, attempt to fit curves to the historic data without predetermined function. In both methods, it is assumed that the historic data used in the analysis is a true representation of the relation between the cost drivers and the corresponding costs. However, because of efficiency variations of the manufacturers and suppliers, changes in supplier selections, market fluctuations, and several other reasons, certain costs in the historic data may be too high whereas other costs may represent better deals for their corresponding cost drivers. Thus, it may be important to rank the historic data and identify benchmarks and estimate the target costs of the product based on these benchmarks. In this paper, a novel adaptation of cost drivers and cost data is introduced in order to use data envelopment analysis for the purpose of ranking cost data and identify benchmarks, and then estimate the target costs of a new product based on these benchmarks. An illustrative case study has been presented for the cost estimation of landing gears of an aircraft manufactured by an aerospace company located in Montreal, CANADA.

  14. Cost estimation of the decommissioning of nuclear fuel cycle plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbe, A.; Pech, R.

    1991-01-01

    Most studies conducted to date on the cost of decommissioning nuclear facilities pertain to reactors. Few such studies have been performed on the cost of decommissioning nuclear fuel cycle plants, particularly spent fuel reprocessing plants. Present operators of these plants nevertheless need to assess such costs, at least in order to include the related expenses in their short-, medium- or long-term projections. They also need to determine now, for example, suitable production costs that the plant owners will have to propose to their customers. Unlike nuclear reactors for which a series effect is involved (PWRs, BWRs, etc.) and where radioactivity is relatively concentrated, industrial-scale reprocessing plants are large, complex installations for which decommissioning is a long and costly operation that requires a special approach. Faced with this problem, Cogema, the owner and operator of the La Hague and Marcoule reprocessing plants in France, called on SGN to assess the total decommissioning costs for its plants. This assessment led SGN to development by SGN engineers of a novel methodology and a computerized calculation model described below. The resulting methodology and model are applicable to other complex nuclear facilities besides reprocessing plants, such as laboratories and nuclear auxiliaries of reactor cores. (author)

  15. Cost analysis of small hydroelectric power plants components and preliminary estimation of global cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basta, C.; Olive, W.J.; Antunes, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    An analysis of cost for each components of Small Hydroelectric Power Plant, taking into account the real costs of these projects is shown. It also presents a global equation which allows a preliminary estimation of cost for each construction. (author)

  16. A Model for Shovel Capital Cost Estimation, Using a Hybrid Model of Multivariate Regression and Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdolreza Yazdani-Chamzini

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation is an essential issue in feasibility studies in civil engineering. Many different methods can be applied to modelling costs. These methods can be divided into several main groups: (1 artificial intelligence, (2 statistical methods, and (3 analytical methods. In this paper, the multivariate regression (MVR method, which is one of the most popular linear models, and the artificial neural network (ANN method, which is widely applied to solving different prediction problems with a high degree of accuracy, have been combined to provide a cost estimate model for a shovel machine. This hybrid methodology is proposed, taking the advantages of MVR and ANN models in linear and nonlinear modelling, respectively. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the MVR model in linear modelling are used first to recognize the existing linear structure in data, and, then, the ANN for determining nonlinear patterns in preprocessed data is applied. The results with three indices indicate that the proposed model is efficient and capable of increasing the prediction accuracy.

  17. Taking the Evolutionary Road to Developing an In-House Cost Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacintho, David; Esker, Lind; Herman, Frank; Lavaque, Rodolfo; Regardie, Myma

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the process and some of the problems and challenges of developing an In-House Cost Estimate (IHCE). Using as an example the Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment (SGSS) project, the presentation reviews the phases for developing a Cost estimate within the project to estimate government and contractor project costs to support a budget request.

  18. A methodology for financial evaluation of biogas technology in India using cost functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rubab, S.; Kandpal, T.C.

    1996-01-01

    A methodology for financial evaluation of biogas technology for domestic use in India using recently developed cost functions is reported. Analytical expressions for the unit cost of biogas and cost per unit of useful energy delivered by a biogas plant in combination with other suitable technologies have been developed. Net present value and discounted pay-back period have been calculated. The sensitivity of the unit cost of biogas, the cost per unit of useful energy, and the net present value with respect to a number of variables is also reported. (author)

  19. Cost update: Technology, safety, and costs of decommissioning reference independent spent fuel storage installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miles, T.L.

    1994-07-01

    The cost estimates originally developed in NUREG/CR-2210 for decommissioning five conceptual Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installations (ISFSIs) and their supporting ancillaries (hot cell and transporter) are updated from 1981 to 1993 dollars. The costs for labor and materials increased approximately at the rate of inflation, the cost of energy increased more slowly than the rate of inflation, and the cost of low-level radioactive waste disposal increased much more rapidly than the rate of inflation. A methodology and a formula are presented for estimating the cost of decommissioning the ISFSIs at some future time, based on these current cost estimates. The formula contains essentially the same elements as the formula given in 10 CFR 50.75 for escalating the decommissioning costs for nuclear power reactors to some future time

  20. Cost/Benefit Prioritization for Advanced Safeguards Research and Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeMuth, S.F.; Adeli, R.; Thomas, K.E.

    2008-01-01

    A system level study utilizing commercially available Extend TM software, has been initiated to perform cost/benefit analyses for advanced safeguards research and development. The methodology is focused on estimating standard error in the inventory difference (SEID) for reprocessing and fuel fabrication facilities, for various proposed advanced safeguards measurement technologies. The inventory duration, and consequent number of inventories per year, is dictated by the detection of a significant quantity of special nuclear material (SNM). Detection is limited by the cumulative measurement uncertainty for the entire system. The cost of inventories is then compared with the cost of advanced instrumentation and/or process design changes. Current progress includes development of the methodology, future efforts will be focused on ascertaining estimated costs and performance. Case studies will be provided as examples of the methodology. (author)

  1. The Acquisition Cost-Estimating Workforce. Census and Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Abbreviations AAC Air Armament Center ACAT acquisition category ACEIT Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools AF Air Force AFB Air Force Base AFCAA Air...3 3 4 Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) 0 1 12 6 Tecolotea training 0 0 10 5 Other 3 13 24 18 No training 18 4 29 18 Total 100 100...other sources, including AFIT, ACEIT ,9 or the contracting agency that employed them. The remain- ing 29 percent reported having received no training

  2. Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Paratransit Systems : Volume 6. Technical Appendices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-09-01

    This last volume, includes five technical appendices which document the methodologies used in the benefit-cost analysis. They are the following: Scenario analysis methodology; Impact estimation; Example of impact estimation; Sensitivity analysis; Agg...

  3. 48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award Fee...

  4. Achieving 95% probability level using best estimate codes and the code scaling, applicability and uncertainty (CSAU) [Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty] methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Griffith, P.; Katsma, K.R.; Lellouche, G.S.; Rohatgi, U.S.; Wulff, W.; Zuber, N.

    1988-01-01

    Issue of a revised rule for loss of coolant accident/emergency core cooling system (LOCA/ECCS) analysis of light water reactors will allow the use of best estimate (BE) computer codes in safety analysis, with uncertainty analysis. This paper describes a systematic methodology, CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty), which will provide uncertainty bounds in a cost effective, auditable, rational and practical manner. 8 figs., 2 tabs

  5. The methodological convention 2,0 for the estimation of environmental costs. An economic evaluation of environmental damages; Methodenkonvention 2.0 zur Schaetzung von Umweltkosten. Oekonomische Bewertung von Umweltschaeden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-08-15

    The reliable estimation of environmental damage costs requires a high degree of transparency of the objectives, assumptions and methods of assessment in order to ensure a correct classification and comparability of the cost factors. The methods convention under consideration aims to develop uniform standards for the technical evaluation of environmental costs and to improve the transparency of the estimates.

  6. Methodology for estimating human perception to tremors in high-rise buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Wenqi; Goh, Key Seng; Pan, Tso-Chien

    2017-07-01

    Human perception to tremors during earthquakes in high-rise buildings is usually associated with psychological discomfort such as fear and anxiety. This paper presents a methodology for estimating the level of perception to tremors for occupants living in high-rise buildings subjected to ground motion excitations. Unlike other approaches based on empirical or historical data, the proposed methodology performs a regression analysis using the analytical results of two generic models of 15 and 30 stories. The recorded ground motions in Singapore are collected and modified for structural response analyses. Simple predictive models are then developed to estimate the perception level to tremors based on a proposed ground motion intensity parameter—the average response spectrum intensity in the period range between 0.1 and 2.0 s. These models can be used to predict the percentage of occupants in high-rise buildings who may perceive the tremors at a given ground motion intensity. Furthermore, the models are validated with two recent tremor events reportedly felt in Singapore. It is found that the estimated results match reasonably well with the reports in the local newspapers and from the authorities. The proposed methodology is applicable to urban regions where people living in high-rise buildings might feel tremors during earthquakes.

  7. A cost-effective methodology to internalize nuclear safety in nuclear reactor conceptual design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gimenez, M.; Grinblat, P.; Schlamp, M.

    2003-01-01

    A new methodology to perform nuclear reactor design, balancing safety and economics at the conceptual engineering stage, is presented in this work. The goal of this integral methodology is to take into account safety aspects in an optimization design process where the design variables are balanced in order to obtain a better figure of merit related with reactor economic performance. Design parameter effects on characteristic or critical safety variables, chosen from reactor behavior during accidents (safety performance indicators), are synthesized on Design Maps. These maps allow one to compare the safety indicator with limits, which are determined by design criteria or regulations, and to transfer these restrictions to the design parameters. In this way, reactor dynamic response and other safety aspects are integrated in a global optimization process, by means of additional rules to the neutronic, thermal-hydraulic, and mechanical calculations. An application of the methodology, implemented in Integrated Reactor Evaluation Program 3 (IREP3) code, to optimize safety systems of CAREM prototype is presented. It consists in balancing the designs of the Emergency Injection System (EIS), the Residual Heat Removal System (RHRS), the primary circuit water inventory and the containment height, to cope with loss of coolant and loss of heat sink (LOHS) accidental sequences, taking into account cost and reactor performance. This methodology turns out to be promising to internalize cost-efficiently safety issues. It also allows one to evaluate the incremental costs of implementing higher safety levels

  8. Thermal and nuclear power generation cost estimates using corporate financial statements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuhji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

    2012-01-01

    There are two generally accepted methods for estimating power generation costs: so-called 'model plant' method and the method using corporate financial statements. The method using corporate financial statements, though under some constraints, can provide useful information for comparing thermal and nuclear power generation costs. This study used this method for estimating thermal and nuclear power generation costs in Japan for the past five years, finding that the nuclear power generation cost remained stable at around 7 yen per kilowatt-hour (kWh) while the thermal power generation cost moved within a wide range of 9 to 12 yen/kWh in line with wild fluctuations in primary energy prices. The cost of nuclear power generation is expected to increase due to the enhancement of safety measures and accident damage compensation in the future, while there are reactor decommissioning, backend and many other costs that the financial statement-using approach cannot accurately estimate. In the future, efforts should be continued to comprehensively and accurately estimate total costs. (author)

  9. Costs and cost-effectiveness of periviable care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caughey, Aaron B; Burchfield, David J

    2014-02-01

    With increasing concerns regarding rapidly expanding healthcare costs, cost-effectiveness analysis allows assessment of whether marginal gains from new technology are worth the increased costs. Particular methodologic issues related to cost and cost-effectiveness analysis in the area of neonatal and periviable care include how costs are estimated, such as the use of charges and whether long-term costs are included; the challenges of measuring utilities; and whether to use a maternal, neonatal, or dual perspective in such analyses. A number of studies over the past three decades have examined the costs and the cost-effectiveness of neonatal and periviable care. Broadly, while neonatal care is costly, it is also cost effective as it produces both life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). However, as the gestational age of the neonate decreases, the costs increase and the cost-effectiveness threshold is harder to achieve. In the periviable range of gestational age (22-24 weeks of gestation), whether the care is cost effective is questionable and is dependent on the perspective. Understanding the methodology and salient issues of cost-effectiveness analysis is critical for researchers, editors, and clinicians to accurately interpret results of the growing body of cost-effectiveness studies related to the care of periviable pregnancies and neonates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Preliminary Cost Estimates for Nuclear Hydrogen Production: HTSE System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, K. J.; Lee, K. Y.; Lee, T. H.

    2008-01-01

    KAERI is now focusing on the research and development of the key technologies required for the design and realization of a nuclear hydrogen production system. As a preliminary study of cost estimates for nuclear hydrogen systems, the hydrogen production costs of the nuclear energy sources benchmarking GTMHR and PBMR are estimated in the necessary input data on a Korean specific basis. G4-ECONS was appropriately modified to calculate the cost for hydrogen production of HTSE (High Temperature Steam Electrolysis) process with VHTR (Very High Temperature nuclear Reactor) as a thermal energy source. The estimated costs presented in this paper show that hydrogen production by the VHTR could be competitive with current techniques of hydrogen production from fossil fuels if CO 2 capture and sequestration is required. Nuclear production of hydrogen would allow large-scale production of hydrogen at economic prices while avoiding the release of CO 2 . Nuclear production of hydrogen could thus become the enabling technology for the hydrogen economy. The major factors that would affect the cost of hydrogen were also discussed

  11. The QUELCE Method: Using Change Drivers to Estimate Program Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Analysis 4 2.4 Assign Conditional Probabilities 5 2.5 Apply Uncertainty to Cost Formula Inputs for Scenarios 5 2.6 Perform Monte Carlo Simulation to...Distribution Statement A: Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited 1 Introduction: The Cost Estimation Challenge Because large-scale programs... challenged [Bliss 2012]. Improvements in cost estimation that would make these assumptions more precise and reduce early lifecycle uncertainty can

  12. Cost Estimates for the Decontamination and Decommissioning of Eight ORNL Buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, M.

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) contains a number of buildings that are antiquated and no longer used. These buildings historically were used for the production of atomic weapons and often remain contaminated with radioactive materials. Certain costs and risks are associated with the long-term stewardship of the buildings. One way to reduce these liabilities is to eliminate the buildings that are no longer in use and are not expected to be used in the future. Some of these buildings at ORNL are located in an area known as 'Isotope Circle'. From this area, eight buildings that are expected to be decontaminated and decommissioned (D and D) in the next five to ten years were chosen to have cost estimates completed. The specific facilities are Buildings 3030, 3031, 3118, 3032, 3033, 3033 Annex, 3034, and 3093. There are many challenges for estimating the costs to D and D buildings potentially contaminated with radionuclides. Each building is unique, has various types and levels of contamination, and (as in this case) often lacks up-to-date information. Because of these limitations, order-of- magnitude cost estimates for each of the eight ORNL buildings were completed using parametric cost modeling software known as RACER TM (Remedial Action Cost Engineering and Requirements System). This type of cost estimate is useful for screening technical concepts and is used for budgetary planning. For the eight buildings evaluated in this study, the total cost to D and D was estimated to be nearly $6 M. This value includes the direct cost of approximately $3.5 M to complete D and D and $2.5 M in cost markups. Also, assuming the actual project does not begin until the year 2010, this total cost is escalated to almost $6.7 M, which accounts for expected inflation. Although the cost estimates in this study were expected to have a wide range in accuracy, there are various factors that could impact these estimates in a negative or positive fashion

  13. Estimating two indirect logging costs caused by accelerated erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen O. Klock

    1976-01-01

    In forest areas where high soil erosion potential exists, a comparative yarding cost estimate, including the indirect costs determined by methods proposed here, shows that the total cost of using "advanced" logging methods may be less than that of "traditional" systems.

  14. A statistical methodology for quantification of uncertainty in best estimate code physical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinai, Paolo; Macian-Juan, Rafael; Chawla, Rakesh

    2007-01-01

    A novel uncertainty assessment methodology, based on a statistical non-parametric approach, is presented in this paper. It achieves quantification of code physical model uncertainty by making use of model performance information obtained from studies of appropriate separate-effect tests. Uncertainties are quantified in the form of estimated probability density functions (pdf's), calculated with a newly developed non-parametric estimator. The new estimator objectively predicts the probability distribution of the model's 'error' (its uncertainty) from databases reflecting the model's accuracy on the basis of available experiments. The methodology is completed by applying a novel multi-dimensional clustering technique based on the comparison of model error samples with the Kruskall-Wallis test. This takes into account the fact that a model's uncertainty depends on system conditions, since a best estimate code can give predictions for which the accuracy is affected by the regions of the physical space in which the experiments occur. The final result is an objective, rigorous and accurate manner of assigning uncertainty to coded models, i.e. the input information needed by code uncertainty propagation methodologies used for assessing the accuracy of best estimate codes in nuclear systems analysis. The new methodology has been applied to the quantification of the uncertainty in the RETRAN-3D void model and then used in the analysis of an independent separate-effect experiment. This has clearly demonstrated the basic feasibility of the approach, as well as its advantages in yielding narrower uncertainty bands in quantifying the code's accuracy for void fraction predictions

  15. Methodology for estimating soil carbon for the forest carbon budget model of the United States, 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    L. S. Heath; R. A. Birdsey; D. W. Williams

    2002-01-01

    The largest carbon (C) pool in United States forests is the soil C pool. We present methodology and soil C pool estimates used in the FORCARB model, which estimates and projects forest carbon budgets for the United States. The methodology balances knowledge, uncertainties, and ease of use. The estimates are calculated using the USDA Natural Resources Conservation...

  16. A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

    2018-02-01

    Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

  17. Estimation Methodology for the Electricity Consumption with the Daylight- and Occupancy-Controlled Artificial Lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Olena Kalyanova; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Strømberg, Ida Kristine

    2017-01-01

    Artificial lighting represents 15-30% of the total electricity consumption in buildings in Scandinavia. It is possible to avoid a large share of electricity use for lighting by application of daylight control systems for artificial lighting. Existing methodology for estimation of electricity...... consumption with application of such control systems in Norway is based on Norwegian standard NS 3031:2014 and can only provide results from a rough estimate. This paper aims to introduce a new estimation methodology for the electricity usage with the daylight- and occupancy-controlled artificial lighting...

  18. Review of the Palisades pressure vessel accumulated fluence estimate and of the least squares methodology employed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffin, P.J.

    1998-05-01

    This report provides a review of the Palisades submittal to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission requesting endorsement of their accumulated neutron fluence estimates based on a least squares adjustment methodology. This review highlights some minor issues in the applied methodology and provides some recommendations for future work. The overall conclusion is that the Palisades fluence estimation methodology provides a reasonable approach to a {open_quotes}best estimate{close_quotes} of the accumulated pressure vessel neutron fluence and is consistent with the state-of-the-art analysis as detailed in community consensus ASTM standards.

  19. The South Wilmington Area remedial cost estimating methodology (RCEM) -- A planning tool and reality check for brownfield development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yancheski, T.B.; Swanson, J.E.

    1996-01-01

    The South Wilmington Area (SWA), which is comprised of 200 acres of multi-use urban lowlands adjacent to the Christina River, is a brownfields area that has been targeted for redevelopment/restoration as part of a major waterfront revitalization project for the City of Wilmington, Delaware. The vision for this riverfront development, which is being promoted by a state-funded development corporation, includes plans for a new harbor, convention and entertainment facilities, upscale residences, an urban wildlife refuge, and the restoration of the Christina River. However, the environmental quality of the SWA has been seriously impacted by an assortment of historic and current heavy industrial land-uses since the late 1800's, and extensive environmental cleanup of this area will be required as part of any redevelopment plan. Given that the environmental cleanup cost will be a major factor in determining the overall economic feasibility of brownfield development in the SWA, a reliable means of estimating potential preliminary remedial costs, without the expense of costly investigative and engineering studies, was needed to assist with this redevelopment initiative. The primary chemicals-of-concern (COCs) area-wide are lead and petroleum compounds, however, there are hot-spot occurrences of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), PCBs, and other heavy metals such as arsenic and mercury

  20. Estimating Drilling Cost and Duration Using Copulas Dependencies Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Al Kindi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of drilling budget and duration is a high-level challenge for oil and gas industry. This is due to the many uncertain activities in the drilling procedure such as material prices, overhead cost, inflation, oil prices, well type, and depth of drilling. Therefore, it is essential to consider all these uncertain variables and the nature of relationships between them. This eventually leads into the minimization of the level of uncertainty and yet makes a "good" estimation points for budget and duration given the well type. In this paper, the copula probability theory is used in order to model the dependencies between cost/duration and MRI (mechanical risk index. The MRI is a mathematical computation, which relates various drilling factors such as: water depth, measured depth, true vertical depth in addition to mud weight and horizontal displacement. In general, the value of MRI is utilized as an input for the drilling cost and duration estimations. Therefore, modeling the uncertain dependencies between MRI and both cost and duration using copulas is important. The cost and duration estimates for each well were extracted from the copula dependency model where research study simulate over 10,000 scenarios. These new estimates were later compared to the actual data in order to validate the performance of the procedure. Most of the wells show moderate - weak relationship of MRI dependence, which means that the variation in these wells can be related to MRI but to the extent that it is not the primary source.

  1. Supplemental report on cost estimates'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have completed an analysis of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Fiscal Year (FY) 1993 budget request for its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (ERWM) program. The results were presented to an interagency review group (IAG) of senior-Administration officials for their consideration in the budget process. This analysis included evaluations of the underlying legal requirements and cost estimates on which the ERWM budget request was based. The major conclusions are contained in a separate report entitled, ''Interagency Review of the Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program.'' This Corps supplemental report provides greater detail on the cost analysis

  2. Trends in nuclear power plant capital-investment cost estimates - 1976 to 1982

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowers, H.I.; Fuller, L.C.; Myers, M.L.

    1983-09-01

    This report describes trends in power plant capital investment cost estimates over the time period from 1976 to 1982. A review of economic parameters, inflation and escalation rates and cost of money, and a review of cost-size scaling relationships are included. Reference cost estimates are provided for light-water reactor and coal-fired electric power plants based on safety and environmental regulations in effect in January 1982. The sensitivity of the reference cost estimates to numerous economic parameters is analyzed

  3. Methods for developing useful estimates of the costs associated with birth defects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Amy P; Canfield, Mark A

    2009-11-01

    Cost estimates for birth defects are useful to policy makers in deciding the best use of resources to prevent these conditions. Much of the effort in this area has focused on spina bifida, in part because cost savings can be estimated from folic acid-preventable cases. However, comprehensive cost-of-illness estimates for this condition may be too outdated, too general, or not applicable to individual states' environments. Using the live birth prevalence for spina bifida in Texas, we applied recent spina bifida cost estimates to approximate total lifetime medical and other costs for an average live birth cohort of spina bifida cases in Texas. In addition, we queried various government programs that provide services for persons with spina bifida to provide program-specific annual costs for this condition. Applying a recently published average lifetime medical cost of $635,000 per case of spina bifida to the average annual birth cohort of 120 Texas cases, an estimated $76 million in direct and indirect medical and other costs will be incurred in Texas over the life span of that cohort. Examples of estimated medical costs for one year are $5 million for infants using actual employer-paid insurance claims data and $6 million combined for children in two public sector programs. Stakeholders and state policy makers may look to state birth defects registries for useful cost data. Although comprehensive state-specific figures are not available, applying prevalence data to existing estimates and obtaining actual claims and program expenditures may help close this information gap.

  4. Case Study to Apply Work Difficulty Factors to Decommissioning Cost Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Taesik; Jung, Hyejin; Oh, Jaeyoung; Kim, Younggook [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    This article is prepared as a guideline regarding how to apply the work difficult factor (WDF) when it comes to the estimates of the decommissioning costs. Although several cases of the decommissioning cost estimates have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those cost estimates and compare them with that of Kori-1. In addition, it is clear that we are supposed to experience difficulties being created in the process of the Kori-1 and the virtual inaccessibility to the limited areas at the pre-decommissioning stage. Estimating decommissioning costs is one of the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of decommissioning activities from the planning to the last evaluation on whether the decommissioning has successfully been proceeded from the safety and economic perspectives. Here I suggested the activity dependent costs is only related to WDFs of the incumbent plant planning or undergone to be decommissioned since as a matter of fact, estimating WDFs is the core process to articulately scrutinize the practical costs to apply to Kori-1 project.

  5. Air quality estimation by computational intelligence methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćirić Ivan T.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this study is to compare different computational intelligence methodologies based on artificial neural networks used for forecasting an air quality parameter - the emission of CO2, in the city of Niš. Firstly, inputs of the CO2 emission estimator are analyzed and their measurement is explained. It is known that the traffic is the single largest emitter of CO2 in Europe. Therefore, a proper treatment of this component of pollution is very important for precise estimation of emission levels. With this in mind, measurements of traffic frequency and CO2 concentration were carried out at critical intersections in the city, as well as the monitoring of a vehicle direction at the crossroad. Finally, based on experimental data, different soft computing estimators were developed, such as feed forward neural network, recurrent neural network, and hybrid neuro-fuzzy estimator of CO2 emission levels. Test data for some characteristic cases presented at the end of the paper shows good agreement of developed estimator outputs with experimental data. Presented results are a true indicator of the implemented method usability. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III42008-2/2011: Evaluation of Energy Performances and br. TR35016/2011: Indoor Environment Quality of Educational Buildings in Serbia with Impact to Health and Research of MHD Flows around the Bodies, in the Tip Clearances and Channels and Application in the MHD Pumps Development

  6. Fuzzy/Neural Software Estimates Costs of Rocket-Engine Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Freddie; Bourgeois, Edit Kaminsky

    2005-01-01

    The Highly Accurate Cost Estimating Model (HACEM) is a software system for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center. HACEM is built on a foundation of adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) a hybrid software concept that combines the adaptive capabilities of neural networks with the ease of development and additional benefits of fuzzy-logic-based systems. In ANFIS, fuzzy inference systems are trained by use of neural networks. HACEM includes selectable subsystems that utilize various numbers and types of inputs, various numbers of fuzzy membership functions, and various input-preprocessing techniques. The inputs to HACEM are parameters of specific tests or series of tests. These parameters include test type (component or engine test), number and duration of tests, and thrust level(s) (in the case of engine tests). The ANFIS in HACEM are trained by use of sets of these parameters, along with costs of past tests. Thereafter, the user feeds HACEM a simple input text file that contains the parameters of a planned test or series of tests, the user selects the desired HACEM subsystem, and the subsystem processes the parameters into an estimate of cost(s).

  7. An Estimator of Heavy Tail Index through the Generalized Jackknife Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiqi Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In practice, sometimes the data can be divided into several blocks but only a few of the largest observations within each block are available to estimate the heavy tail index. To address this problem, we propose a new class of estimators through the Generalized Jackknife methodology based on Qi’s estimator (2010. These estimators are proved to be asymptotically normal under suitable conditions. Compared to Hill’s estimator and Qi’s estimator, our new estimator has better asymptotic efficiency in terms of the minimum mean squared error, for a wide range of the second order shape parameters. For the finite samples, our new estimator still compares favorably to Hill’s estimator and Qi’s estimator, providing stable sample paths as a function of the number of dividing the sample into blocks, smaller estimation bias, and MSE.

  8. FORECAST: Regulatory effects cost analysis software annual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez, B.; Sciacca, F.W.

    1991-11-01

    Over the past several years the NRC has developed a generic cost methodology for the quantification of cost/economic impacts associated with a wide range of new or revised regulatory requirements. This methodology has been developed to aid the NRC in preparing Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs). These generic costing methods can be useful in quantifying impacts both to industry and to the NRC. The FORECAST program was developed to facilitate the use of the generic costing methodology. This PC program integrates the major cost considerations that may be required because of a regulatory change. FORECAST automates much of the calculations typically needed in an RIA and thus reduces the time and labor required to perform these analysis. More importantly, its integrated and consistent treatment of the different cost elements should help assure comprehensiveness, uniformity, and accuracy in the preparation of needed cost estimates

  9. Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification: Independent Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M.

    2011-10-01

    This independent review is the conclusion arrived at from data collection, document reviews, interviews and deliberation from December 2010 through April 2011 and the technical potential of Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification. The Panel reviewed the current H2A case (Version 2.12, Case 01D) for hydrogen production via biomass gasification and identified four principal components of hydrogen levelized cost: CapEx; feedstock costs; project financing structure; efficiency/hydrogen yield. The panel reexamined the assumptions around these components and arrived at new estimates and approaches that better reflect the current technology and business environments.

  10. On Cost Estimate for Decommissioning of one Isotope Central

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marek Vasko et al

    2010-08-01

    The main scope of this study has been to calculate the future cost for decommission and dismantling the Isotope central at the Studsvik site using the OMEGA CODE. Detailed empirical information is used in the study for 'bench-marking' purposes, in such cases when there is a need to supplement and correct field data from the industry. In the present study, data has been retrieved and organized such that the estimated costs for decommissioning of the Isotope Central become transparent and reliable. This approach gives a preliminary qualitative indication about the accuracy of the cost estimate delivered by the industry

  11. On Cost Estimate for Decommissioning of one Isotope Central

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marek Vasko et al

    2010-08-15

    The main scope of this study has been to calculate the future cost for decommission and dismantling the Isotope central at the Studsvik site using the OMEGA CODE. Detailed empirical information is used in the study for 'bench-marking' purposes, in such cases when there is a need to supplement and correct field data from the industry. In the present study, data has been retrieved and organized such that the estimated costs for decommissioning of the Isotope Central become transparent and reliable. This approach gives a preliminary qualitative indication about the accuracy of the cost estimate delivered by the industry

  12. Cost estimating issues in the Russian integrated system planning context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allentuck, J.

    1996-01-01

    An important factor in the credibility of an optimal capacity expansion plan is the accuracy of cost estimates given the uncertainty of future economic conditions. This paper examines the problems associated with estimating investment and operating costs in the Russian nuclear power context over the period 1994 to 2010

  13. Tobacco litter costs and public policy: a framework and methodology for considering the use of fees to offset abatement costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, John E; Peterson, N Andrew; Kiss, Noemi; Ebeid, Omar; Doyle, Alexis S

    2011-05-01

    Growing concern over the costs, environmental impact and safety of tobacco product litter (TPL) has prompted states and cities to undertake a variety of policy initiatives, of which litter abatement fees are part. The present work describes a framework and methodology for calculating TPL costs and abatement fees. Abatement is associated with four categories of costs: (1) mechanical and manual abatement from streets, sidewalks and public places, (2) mechanical and manual abatement from storm water and sewer treatment systems, (3) the costs associated with harm to the ecosystem and harm to industries dependent on clean and healthy ecosystems, and (4) the costs associated with direct harm to human health. The experiences of the City of San Francisco's recently proposed tobacco litter abatement fee serve as a case study. City and municipal TPL costs are incurred through manual and mechanical clean-up of surfaces and catchment areas. According to some studies, public litter abatement costs to US cities range from US$3 million to US$16 million. TPL typically comprises between 22% and 36% of all visible litter, implying that total public TPL direct abatement costs range from about US$0.5 million to US$6 million for a city the size of San Francisco. The costs of mitigating the negative externalities of TPL in a city the size of San Francisco can be offset by implementing a fee of approximately US$0.20 per pack. Tobacco litter abatement costs to cities can be substantial, even when the costs of potential environmental pollution and tourism effects are excluded. One public policy option to address tobacco litter is levying of fees on cigarettes sold. The methodology described here for calculating TPL costs and abatement fees may be useful to state and local authorities who are considering adoption of this policy initiative.

  14. Methodology for estimation of potential for solar water heating in a target area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pillai, Indu R.; Banerjee, Rangan

    2007-01-01

    Proper estimation of potential of any renewable energy technology is essential for planning and promotion of the technology. The methods reported in literature for estimation of potential of solar water heating in a target area are aggregate in nature. A methodology for potential estimation (technical, economic and market potential) of solar water heating in a target area is proposed in this paper. This methodology links the micro-level factors and macro-level market effects affecting the diffusion or adoption of solar water heating systems. Different sectors with end uses of low temperature hot water are considered for potential estimation. Potential is estimated at each end use point by simulation using TRNSYS taking micro-level factors. The methodology is illustrated for a synthetic area in India with an area of 2 sq. km and population of 10,000. The end use sectors considered are residential, hospitals, nursing homes and hotels. The estimated technical potential and market potential are 1700 m 2 and 350 m 2 of collector area, respectively. The annual energy savings for the technical potential in the area is estimated as 110 kW h/capita and 0.55 million-kW h/sq. km. area, with an annual average peak saving of 1 MW. The annual savings is 650-kW h per m 2 of collector area and accounts for approximately 3% of the total electricity consumption of the target area. Some of the salient features of the model are the factors considered for potential estimation; estimation of electrical usage pattern for typical day, amount of electricity savings and savings during the peak load. The framework is general and enables accurate estimation of potential of solar water heating for a city, block. Energy planners and policy makers can use this framework for tracking and promotion of diffusion of solar water heating systems. (author)

  15. Importance of funding in decommissioning cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mingst, B.C.

    1987-01-01

    Decommissioning cost estimates have been made by several study groups for the decommissioning of pressurized-water and boiling-water nuclear power stations. The results of these studies are comparable when corrected for inflation and the differences in contingency factors applied by the study groups. The estimated dismantling costs differ far less than a factor of 2 in all cases, despite the design differences found in the plants that were studied. An analysis of the different methods available for funding the dismantling of these facilities shows the much stronger effect that the choice of funding methods has on the net cost of decommissioning. The total cost of dismantling may vary more than a factor of 4 from one funding method to another, assuming current or recent historical inflation rates. The funding methods evaluated include sinking funds, deposits, negative-salvage value depreciation, and insurance. These funding methods are taken from the NRC's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking description of acceptable funding methods. The funding analysis for this study was performed using the DECOST-86 computer code. The evaluation of funding options for a nuclear facility, and the appropriate choice of the funding method best for that facility, are found to be more important than detailed engineering studies in determining the net cost of decommissioning during the early portions of the plant's operating lifetime

  16. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

  17. An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

  18. A photogrammetric methodology for estimating construction and demolition waste composition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heck, H.H.; Reinhart, D.R.; Townsend, T.; Seibert, S.; Medeiros, S.; Cochran, K.; Chakrabarti, S.

    2002-01-01

    Manual sorting of construction, demolition, and renovation (C and D) waste is difficult and costly. A photogrammetric method has been developed to analyze the composition of C and D waste that eliminates the need for physical contact with the waste. The only field data collected is the weight and volume of the solid waste in the storage container and a photograph of each side of the waste pile, after it is dumped on the tipping floor. The methodology was developed and calibrated based on manual sorting studies at three different landfills in Florida, where the contents of twenty roll-off containers filled with C and D waste were sorted. The component classifications used were wood, concrete, paper products, drywall, metals, insulation, roofing, plastic, flooring, municipal solid waste, land-clearing waste, and other waste. Photographs of each side of the waste pile were taken with a digital camera and the pictures were analyzed on a computer using Photoshop software. Photoshop was used to divide the picture into eighty cells composed of ten columns and eight rows. The component distribution of each cell was estimated and results were summed to get a component distribution for the pile. Two types of distribution factors were developed that allow the component volumes and weights to be estimated. One set of distribution factors was developed to correct the volume distributions and the second set was developed to correct the weight distributions. The bulk density of each of the waste components were determined and used to convert waste volumes to weights. (author)

  19. A photogrammetric methodology for estimating construction and demolition waste composition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heck, H.H. [Florida Inst. of Technology, Dept. of divil Engineering, Melbourne, Florida (United States); Reinhart, D.R.; Townsend, T.; Seibert, S.; Medeiros, S.; Cochran, K.; Chakrabarti, S

    2002-06-15

    Manual sorting of construction, demolition, and renovation (C and D) waste is difficult and costly. A photogrammetric method has been developed to analyze the composition of C and D waste that eliminates the need for physical contact with the waste. The only field data collected is the weight and volume of the solid waste in the storage container and a photograph of each side of the waste pile, after it is dumped on the tipping floor. The methodology was developed and calibrated based on manual sorting studies at three different landfills in Florida, where the contents of twenty roll-off containers filled with C and D waste were sorted. The component classifications used were wood, concrete, paper products, drywall, metals, insulation, roofing, plastic, flooring, municipal solid waste, land-clearing waste, and other waste. Photographs of each side of the waste pile were taken with a digital camera and the pictures were analyzed on a computer using Photoshop software. Photoshop was used to divide the picture into eighty cells composed of ten columns and eight rows. The component distribution of each cell was estimated and results were summed to get a component distribution for the pile. Two types of distribution factors were developed that allow the component volumes and weights to be estimated. One set of distribution factors was developed to correct the volume distributions and the second set was developed to correct the weight distributions. The bulk density of each of the waste components were determined and used to convert waste volumes to weights. (author)

  20. Estimating the cost of production stoppage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1979-01-01

    Estimation model considers learning curve quantities, and time of break to forecast losses due to break in production schedule. Major parameters capable of predicting costs are number of units made prior to production sequence, length of production break, and slope of learning curve produced prior to break.

  1. A level playing field-obtaining consistent cost estimates for advanced reactor designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, C.R.; Rohm, H.H.; Humphreys, J.R.

    1987-01-01

    A level playing field in sports is necessary to avoid a situation in which a team has an unfair advantage over its competition. Similarly, rules and guidelines for developing cost estimates can be established which, in effect, provide a level playing field whereby cost estimates for advanced power plant concepts can be presented on a consistent and equitable basis. As an example, consider the capital costs shown in Table 1. Both sets of cost are for the exact same power plant; Estimate 1 is expressed in constant dollars while Estimate 2 is presented in nominal or as-spent dollars. As shown, the costs in Table 1 are not directly comparable. Similar problems can be introduced as a result of differing assumptions in any number of parameters including the scope of the cost estimate, inflation/escalation and interest rates, contingency costs, and site location. Of course, the motivation for having consistent cost estimates is to permit comparison among various concepts. As the U.S. Department of Energy sponsors research and development work on several advanced reactor concepts in which expected cost is a key evaluation parameter, the emphasis in this particular endeavor has been in promoting the comparability of advanced reactor cost estimates among themselves and to existing power plant types. To continue with the analogy, the idea is to lay out the playing field and the rules of the contest such that each team participates in the match on an equal basis with the final score being solely determined by the inherent strengths and abilities of the teams. A description of the playing field and some of the more important rules will now be provided

  2. Spent fuel management fee methodology and computer code user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engel, R.L.; White, M.K.

    1982-01-01

    The methodology and computer model described here were developed to analyze the cash flows for the federal government taking title to and managing spent nuclear fuel. The methodology has been used by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to estimate the spent fuel disposal fee that will provide full cost recovery. Although the methodology was designed to analyze interim storage followed by spent fuel disposal, it could be used to calculate a fee for reprocessing spent fuel and disposing of the waste. The methodology consists of two phases. The first phase estimates government expenditures for spent fuel management. The second phase determines the fees that will result in revenues such that the government attains full cost recovery assuming various revenue collection philosophies. These two phases are discussed in detail in subsequent sections of this report. Each of the two phases constitute a computer module, called SPADE (SPent fuel Analysis and Disposal Economics) and FEAN (FEe ANalysis), respectively

  3. Methodology for modelling plug-in electric vehicles in the power system and cost estimates for a system with either smart or dumb electric vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiviluoma, Juha; Meibom, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The article estimates the costs of plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) in a future power system as well as the benefits from smart charging and discharging EVs (smart EVs). To arrive in a good estimate, a generation planning model was used to create power plant portfolios, which were operated in a more...... detailed unit commitment and dispatch model. In both models the charging and discharging of EVs is optimised together with the rest of the power system. Neither the system cost nor the market price of electricity for EVs turned out to be high (36–263 €/vehicle/year in the analysed scenarios). Most...

  4. An Evaluation of the Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools (ACEIT) System

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-09-01

    C~4p DTIC S ELECTE fl JAN12 19 .1R ~OF S%. B -U AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Caroline L...Ohio go 91 022 AFIT/GCA/LSQ/89S-5 AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Caroline L. Hanson Major, USAF...Department of Defense. AFIT/GCA/LSQ/89S-5 AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Presented to the

  5. Setting priorities for the health care sector in Zimbabwe using cost-effectiveness analysis and estimates of the burden of disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hansen Kristian

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study aimed at providing information for priority setting in the health care sector of Zimbabwe as well as assessing the efficiency of resource use. A general approach proposed by the World Bank involving the estimation of the burden of disease measured in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs and calculation of cost-effectiveness ratios for a large number of health interventions was followed. Methods Costs per DALY for a total of 65 health interventions were estimated. Costing data were collected through visits to health centres, hospitals and vertical programmes where a combination of step-down and micro-costing was applied. Effectiveness of health interventions was estimated based on published information on the efficacy adjusted for factors such as coverage and compliance. Results Very cost-effective interventions were available for the major health problems. Using estimates of the burden of disease, the present paper developed packages of health interventions using the estimated cost-effectiveness ratios. These packages could avert a quarter of the burden of disease at total costs corresponding to one tenth of the public health budget in the financial year 1997/98. In general, the analyses suggested that there was substantial potential for improving the efficiency of resource use in the public health care sector. Discussion The proposed World Bank approach applied to Zimbabwe was extremely data demanding and required extensive data collection in the field and substantial human resources. The most important limitation of the study was the scarcity of evidence on effectiveness of health interventions so that a range of important health interventions could not be included in the cost-effectiveness analysis. This and other limitations could in principle be overcome if more research resources were available. Conclusion The present study showed that it was feasible to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses for a large number

  6. [Direct costs of medical care for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Mexico micro-costing analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Bolaños, Rosibel de Los Ángeles; Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Jiménez Ruíz, Jorge Alberto; Juárez Márquezy, Sergio Arturo; Hernández Ávila, Mauricio

    2010-12-01

    Estimate the direct cost of medical care incurred by the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social) for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2). The clinical files of 497 patients who were treated in secondary and tertiary medical care units in 2002-2004 were reviewed. Costs were quantified using a disease costing approach (DCA) from the provider's perspective, a micro-costing technique, and a bottom-up methodology. Average annual costs by diagnosis, complication, and total cost were estimated. Total IMSS DM2 annual costs were US$452 064 988, or 3.1% of operating expenses. The annual average cost per patient was US$3 193.75, with US$2 740.34 per patient without complications and US$3 550.17 per patient with complications. Hospitalization and intensive care bed-days generated the greatest expenses. The high cost of providing medical care to patients with DM2 and its complications represents an economic burden that health institutions should consider in their budgets to enable them to offer quality service that is both adequate and timely. Using the micro-costing methodology allows an approximation to real data on utilization and management of the disease.

  7. Estimating External Costs of Transportation in Regional Areas: Using Available Statistical Data the Case of the Region of Campania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariano Gallo

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper simplified methods for estimating the external costs due to transportation in regional areas are proposed. The methods are based on data available by national and regional statistical sources and do not need specific surveys; they allow obtaining approximate estimates useful for a preliminary evaluation of transportation plans, policies and projects. In more detail, a negative externality is defined as a cost that is produced by subject A and is borne by subject B; moreover, subject A does not consider the effects of his/her behavior on subject B and does not compensate subject B for the costs that this last one is forced to bear. In this paper after a literature review on methodologies proposed for estimating external costs, in national and international ambits, the main external costs produced by transportation systems in the Region of Campania are estimated. The main external costs considered are: greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, noise, accidents and congestion. In the paper the secondary external costs are neglected; the main ones are: water and soil pollution; landscape and nature damages; upstream and downstream effects; visual intrusion; separation effects; soil occupancy. In this paper the external costs estimated are the ones produced not only by road traffic, that anyway is the main “culprit”, but also by rail and air transportation systems. The evaluation of external costs has required the collection of several data on the regional mobility and the estimation of veh-kms per year produced in Campania by cars and freight vehicles. The estimation of veh-kms per year is based on circulating vehicles, subdivided by the COPERT classification, and on average yearly distances covered by each vehicle class. Other regional statistical data are collected about regional rail transport and air services at the main airports of the region. Moreover, since the evaluation of some external costs is based on damages on human

  8. Comparing methodologies for the allocation of overhead and capital costs to hospital services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Siok Swan; van Ineveld, Bastianus Martinus; Redekop, William Ken; Hakkaart-van Roijen, Leona

    2009-06-01

    Typically, little consideration is given to the allocation of indirect costs (overheads and capital) to hospital services, compared to the allocation of direct costs. Weighted service allocation is believed to provide the most accurate indirect cost estimation, but the method is time consuming. To determine whether hourly rate, inpatient day, and marginal mark-up allocation are reliable alternatives for weighted service allocation. The cost approaches were compared independently for appendectomy, hip replacement, cataract, and stroke in representative general hospitals in The Netherlands for 2005. Hourly rate allocation and inpatient day allocation produce estimates that are not significantly different from weighted service allocation. Hourly rate allocation may be a strong alternative to weighted service allocation for hospital services with a relatively short inpatient stay. The use of inpatient day allocation would likely most closely reflect the indirect cost estimates obtained by the weighted service method.

  9. Cost estimate for electrostatically plugged cusp reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolan, T.J.

    1977-01-01

    A preliminary design of an electrostatically plugged cusp reactor was presented in (UCRL-52142(1976)). The capital costs of the various components of this reactor are estimated and totaled for two different blanket configurations: one having an energy multiplication factor M = 1.2, and the other having M = 1.68. The unoptimized direct capital costs for these cases are found to be about 1400 and 950 $/kWe, respectively

  10. A Methodology for Estimating Large-Customer Demand Response MarketPotential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, Charles; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Cappers,Peter

    2007-08-01

    Demand response (DR) is increasingly recognized as an essential ingredient to well-functioning electricity markets. DR market potential studies can answer questions about the amount of DR available in a given area and from which market segments. Several recent DR market potential studies have been conducted, most adapting techniques used to estimate energy-efficiency (EE) potential. In this scoping study, we: reviewed and categorized seven recent DR market potential studies; recommended a methodology for estimating DR market potential for large, non-residential utility customers that uses price elasticities to account for behavior and prices; compiled participation rates and elasticity values from six DR options offered to large customers in recent years, and demonstrated our recommended methodology with large customer market potential scenarios at an illustrative Northeastern utility. We observe that EE and DR have several important differences that argue for an elasticity approach for large-customer DR options that rely on customer-initiated response to prices, rather than the engineering approaches typical of EE potential studies. Base-case estimates suggest that offering DR options to large, non-residential customers results in 1-3% reductions in their class peak demand in response to prices or incentive payments of $500/MWh. Participation rates (i.e., enrollment in voluntary DR programs or acceptance of default hourly pricing) have the greatest influence on DR impacts of all factors studied, yet are the least well understood. Elasticity refinements to reflect the impact of enabling technologies and response at high prices provide more accurate market potential estimates, particularly when arc elasticities (rather than substitution elasticities) are estimated.

  11. Estimation of the cost of large-scale school deworming programmes with benzimidazoles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montresor, A.; Gabrielli, A.F.; Engels, D.

    2017-01-01

    Summary This study estimates the cost of distributing benzimidazole tablets in the context of school deworming programmes: we analysed studies reporting the cost of school deworming from seven countries in four WHO regions. The estimated cost for drug procurement to cover one million children (including customs clearance and international transport) is approximately US$20 000. The estimated financial costs (including the cost of training of personnel, drug transport, social mobilization and monitoring) is, on average, equivalent to US$33 000 per million school-age children with minimal variation in different countries and continents. The estimated economic costs of distribution (including the time spent by teachers, and health personnel at central, provincial and district level) to cover one million children approximately corresponds to US$19 000. This study shows the minimal cost of school deworming activities, but also shows the significant contribution (corresponding to a quarter of the entire cost of the programme) provided by health and education systems in endemic countries even in the case of drug donations and donor support of distribution costs. PMID:19926104

  12. Methodology development for the radioecological monitoring effectiveness estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gusev, A.E.; Kozlov, A.A.; Lavrov, K.N.; Sobolev, I.A.; Tsyplyakova, T.P.

    1997-01-01

    A general model for estimation of the programs assuring radiation and ecological public protection is described. The complex of purposes and criteria characterizing and giving an opportunity to estimate the effectiveness of environment protection program composition is selected. An algorithm for selecting the optimal management decision from the view point of work cost connected with population protection improvement is considered. The position of radiation-ecological monitoring in general problem of environment pollution is determined. It is shown that the monitoring organizing effectiveness is closely connected with population radiation and ecological protection

  13. Cost estimation for decommissioning of research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grossi, Pablo Andrade; Tello, Cledola Cassia Oliveira de; Segabinaze, Roberto de Oliveira; Daniska, Vladimir

    2013-01-01

    In the case of research reactors, the limited data that is available tends to provide only overall decommissioning costs, without any breakdown of the main cost elements. In order to address this subject, it is important to collect and analyse all available data of decommissioning costs for the research reactors. The IAEA has started the DACCORD Project focused on data analysis and costing of research reactors decommissioning. Data collection is organized in accordance with the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC), developed jointly by the IAEA, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the European Commission. The specific aims of the project include the development of representative and comparative data and datasets for preliminary costing for decommissioning. This paper will focus on presenting a technique to consider several representative input data in accordance with the ISDC structure and using the CERREX (Cost Estimation for Research Reactors in Excel) software developed by IAEA. (author)

  14. Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

    2007-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

  15. LWR design decision methodology. Phase III. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertucio, R.; Held, J.; Lainoff, S.; Leahy, T.; Prather, W.; Rees, D.; Young, J.

    1982-01-01

    Traditionally, management decisions regarding design options have been made using quantitative cost information and qualitative safety information. A Design Decision Methodology, which utilizes probabilistic risk assessment techniques, including event trees and fault trees, along with systems engineering and standard cost estimation methods, has been developed so that a quantitative safety measure may be obtained as well. The report documents the development of this Design Decision Methodology, a demonstration of the methodology on a current licensing issue with the cooperation of the Washington Public Power Supply System (WPPSS), and a discussion of how the results of the demonstration may be used addressing the various issues associated with a licensing position on the issue

  16. The Software Cost Estimation Method Based on Fuzzy Ontology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plecka Przemysław

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the course of sales process of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP Systems, it turns out that the standard system must be extended or changed (modified according to specific customer’s requirements. Therefore, suppliers face the problem of determining the cost of additional works. Most methods of cost estimation bring satisfactory results only at the stage of pre-implementation analysis. However, suppliers need to know the estimated cost as early as at the stage of trade talks. During contract negotiations, they expect not only the information about the costs of works, but also about the risk of exceeding these costs or about the margin of safety. One method that gives more accurate results at the stage of trade talks is the method based on the ontology of implementation costs. This paper proposes modification of the method involving the use of fuzzy attributes, classes, instances and relations in the ontology. The result provides not only the information about the value of work, but also about the minimum and maximum expected cost, and the most likely range of costs. This solution allows suppliers to effectively negotiate the contract and increase the chances of successful completion of the project.

  17. State-Level Estimates of Obesity-Attributable Costs of Absenteeism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreyeva, Tatiana; Luedicke, Joerg; Wang, Y. Claire

    2014-01-01

    Objective To provide state-level estimates of obesity-attributable costs of absenteeism among working adults in the U.S. Methods Nationally-representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for 1998–2008 and from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for 2012 are examined. The outcome is obesity-attributable workdays missed in the previous year due to health, and their costs to states. Results Obesity, but not overweight, is associated with a significant increase in workdays absent, from 1.1 to 1.7 extra days missed annually compared to normal weight employees. Obesity-attributable absenteeism among American workers costs the nation an estimated $8.65 billion per year. Conclusion Obesity imposes a considerable financial burden on states, accounting for 6.5%–12.6% of total absenteeism costs in the workplace. State legislature and employers should seek effective ways to reduce these costs. PMID:25376405

  18. Life-cycle cost as basis to optimize waste collection in space and time: A methodology for obtaining a detailed cost breakdown structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Vitor; Dias-Ferreira, Celia; Vaz, João M; Meireles, Inês

    2018-05-01

    Extensive research has been carried out on waste collection costs mainly to differentiate costs of distinct waste streams and spatial optimization of waste collection services (e.g. routes, number, and location of waste facilities). However, waste collection managers also face the challenge of optimizing assets in time, for instance deciding when to replace and how to maintain, or which technological solution to adopt. These issues require a more detailed knowledge about the waste collection services' cost breakdown structure. The present research adjusts the methodology for buildings' life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, detailed in the ISO 15686-5:2008, to the waste collection assets. The proposed methodology is then applied to the waste collection assets owned and operated by a real municipality in Portugal (Cascais Ambiente - EMAC). The goal is to highlight the potential of the LCC tool in providing a baseline for time optimization of the waste collection service and assets, namely assisting on decisions regarding equipment operation and replacement.

  19. Estimating small area health-related characteristics of populations: a methodological review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizur Rahman

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of health-related characteristics at a fine local geographic level is vital for effective health promotion programmes, provision of better health services and population-specific health planning and management. Lack of a micro-dataset readily available for attributes of individuals at small areas negatively impacts the ability of local and national agencies to manage serious health issues and related risks in the community. A solution to this challenge would be to develop a method that simulates reliable small-area statistics. This paper provides a significant appraisal of the methodologies for estimating health-related characteristics of populations at geographical limited areas. Findings reveal that a range of methodologies are in use, which can be classified as three distinct set of approaches: i indirect standardisation and individual level modelling; ii multilevel statistical modelling; and iii micro-simulation modelling. Although each approach has its own strengths and weaknesses, it appears that microsimulation- based spatial models have significant robustness over the other methods and also represent a more precise means of estimating health-related population characteristics over small areas.

  20. A comparison of two methods for estimating the technical costs of external beam radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayman, James A.; Lash, Kathy A.; Tao, May L.; Halman, Marc A.

    2000-01-01

    Purpose: To accurately assess the cost-effectiveness of treatment with external beam radiation, it is necessary to have accurate estimates of its cost. One of the most common methods for estimating technical costs has been to convert Medicare charges into costs using Medicare Cost-to-Charge Ratios (CCR). More recently, health care organizations have begun to invest in sophisticated cost-accounting systems (CAS) that are capable of providing procedure-specific cost estimates. The purpose of this study was to examine whether these competing approaches result in similar cost estimates for four typical courses of external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Methods and Materials: Technical costs were estimated for the following treatment courses: 1) a palliative 'simple' course of 10 fractions using a single field without blocks; 2) a palliative 'complex' course of 10 fractions using two opposed fields with custom blocks; 3) a curative course of 30 fractions for breast cancer using tangent fields followed by an electron beam boost; and 4) a curative course of 35 fractions for prostate cancer using CT-planning and a 4-field technique. Costs were estimated using the CCR approach by multiplying the number of units of each procedure billed by its Medicare charge and CCR and then summing these costs. Procedure-specific cost estimates were obtained from a cost-accounting system, and overall costs were then estimated for the CAS approach by multiplying the number of units billed by the appropriate unit cost estimate and then summing these costs. All costs were estimated using data from 1997. The analysis was also repeated using data from another academic institution to estimate their costs using the CCR and CAS methods, as well as the appropriate relative value units (RVUs) and conversion factor from the 1997 Medicare Fee Schedule to estimate Medicare reimbursement for the four treatment courses. Results: The estimated technical costs for the CCR vs. CAS approaches for the four

  1. Methodology proposal for estimation of carbon storage in urban green areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröder, C.; Mancosu, E.; Roerink, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    Methodology proposal for estimation of carbon storage in urban green areas; final report. Subtitle: Final report of task Task 262-5-6 "Carbon sequestration in urban green infrastructure" Project manager Marie Cugny-Seguin. Date: 15-10-2013

  2. Space Station Freedom operations costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Accola, Anne L.; Williams, Gregory J.

    1988-01-01

    Measures to reduce the operation costs of the Space Station which can be implemented in the design and development stages are discussed. Operational functions are described in the context of an overall operations concept. The provisions for operations cost responsibilities among the partners in the Space Station program are presented. Cost estimating methodologies and the way in which operations costs affect the design and development process are examined.

  3. Forensic anthropology casework-essential methodological considerations in stature estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Menezes, Ritesh G; Ghosh, Abhik

    2012-03-01

    The examination of skeletal remains is a challenge to the medical examiner's/coroner's office and the forensic anthropologist conducting the investigation. One of the objectives of the medico-legal investigation is to estimate stature or height from various skeletal remains and body parts brought for examination. Various skeletal remains and body parts bear a positive and linear correlation with stature and have been successfully used for stature estimation. This concept is utilized in estimation of stature in forensic anthropology casework in mass disasters and other forensic examinations. Scientists have long been involved in standardizing the anthropological data with respect to various populations of the world. This review deals with some essential methodological issues that need to be addressed in research related to estimation of stature in forensic examinations. These issues have direct relevance in the identification of commingled or unknown remains and therefore it is essential that forensic nurses are familiar with the theories and techniques used in forensic anthropology. © 2012 International Association of Forensic Nurses.

  4. Estimation of costs for fabrication of pressurized-water reactor fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Judkins, R.R.; Olsen, A.R.

    1979-01-01

    To provide a reference case on which to base cost estimates of the several fuel cycles to be considered, the facility, equipment, and operating requirements for the fabrication of fuel for current-design pressurized-water reactors were examined. From an analysis of these requirements, the capital and operating costs of a plant with a capacity of two metric tons of heavy metal per day (MTHM/day) were estimated. In a cash flow analysis, the lifetime of the plant was assumed to be 20 y, and the income from the sale of nuclear fuel assemblies over this period was equated to the total capital and operating expenses of the plant, including a specified 15% return on investment. In this way a levelized unit price for the fuel was obtained. The effects of inflation were not considered since the purpose of these estimates and the determination of unit price was to permit comparison of different types of fuels. The capital costs of the fuel fabrication plant were estimated at $32 million for the facility--land, site preparation, building--and $34 million for equipment. Annual operating costs including labor, management, materials, and utilities were estimated to be $36.5 million. From these estimates, the unit price for fabricating the fuel for the reference pressurized-water reactor was determined to be $138/kg of heavy metal or $63,600 per fuel assembly

  5. Final report on cost estimate of forward superconducting air core toroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, T.

    1992-12-01

    An independent cost-estimate for key components of the forward superconducting air core toroid (ACT) was obtained in May 1992 from an experienced manufacturer of large cryogenic vessels. This new cost estimate is summarized in this report. It implies that a suitably designed ACT may have a cost which is approximately equal to that of the presently designed SDC forward iron core toroid

  6. Fusion reactor design studies: standard accounts for cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulte, S.C.; Willke, T.L.; Young, J.R.

    1978-05-01

    The fusion reactor design studies--standard accounts for cost estimates provides a common format from which to assess the economic character of magnetically confined fusion reactor design concepts. The format will aid designers in the preparation of design concept costs estimates and also provide policymakers with a tool to assist in appraising which design concept may be economically promising. The format sets forth a categorization and accounting procedure to be used when estimating fusion reactor busbar energy cost that can be easily and consistently applied. Reasons for developing the procedure, explanations of the procedure, justifications for assumptions made in the procedure, and the applicability of the procedure are described in this document. Adherence to the format when evaluating prospective fusion reactor design concepts will result in the identification of the more promising design concepts thus enabling the fusion power alternatives with better economic potential to be quickly and efficiently developed

  7. Compendium of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation Methodologies for the Oil and Gas Industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shires, T.M.; Loughran, C.J. [URS Corporation, Austin, TX (United States)

    2004-02-01

    This document is a compendium of currently recognized methods and provides details for all oil and gas industry segments to enhance consistency in emissions estimation. This Compendium aims to accomplish the following goals: Assemble an expansive collection of relevant emission factors for estimating GHG emissions, based on currently available public documents; Outline detailed procedures for conversions between different measurement unit systems, with particular emphasis on implementation of oil and gas industry standards; Provide descriptions of the multitude of oil and gas industry operations, in its various segments, and the associated emissions sources that should be considered; and Develop emission inventory examples, based on selected facilities from the various segments, to demonstrate the broad applicability of the methodologies. The overall objective of developing this document is to promote the use of consistent, standardized methodologies for estimating GHG emissions from petroleum industry operations. The resulting Compendium documents recognized calculation techniques and emission factors for estimating GHG emissions for oil and gas industry operations. These techniques cover the calculation or estimation of emissions from the full range of industry operations - from exploration and production through refining, to the marketing and distribution of products. The Compendium presents and illustrates the use of preferred and alternative calculation approaches for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions for all common emission sources, including combustion, vented, and fugitive. Decision trees are provided to guide the user in selecting an estimation technique based on considerations of materiality, data availability, and accuracy. API will provide (free of charge) a calculation tool based on the emission estimation methodologies described herein. The tool will be made available at http://ghg.api.org/.

  8. Methodology for Determining the Avoidable and Fully Allocated Costs of Amtrak Routes : Volume III, Appendix B-H

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    The Federal Railroad Administration tasked the Volpe Center with developing a methodology for determining the avoidable and fully allocated costs of Amtrak routes. Avoidable costs are costs that would not be incurred if an Amtrak route were discontin...

  9. Estimation of the cost of large-scale school deworming programmes with benzimidazoles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montresor, A; Gabrielli, A F; Diarra, A; Engels, D

    2010-02-01

    This study estimates the cost of distributing benzimidazole tablets in the context of school deworming programmes: we analysed studies reporting the cost of school deworming from seven countries in four WHO regions. The estimated cost for drug procurement to cover one million children (including customs clearance and international transport) is approximately US$20000. The estimated financial costs (including the cost of training of personnel, drug transport, social mobilization and monitoring) is, on average, equivalent to US$33000 per million school-age children with minimal variation in different countries and continents. The estimated economic costs of distribution (including the time spent by teachers, and health personnel at central, provincial and district level) to cover one million children approximately corresponds to US$19000. This study shows the minimal cost of school deworming activities, but also shows the significant contribution (corresponding to a quarter of the entire cost of the programme) provided by health and education systems in endemic countries even in the case of drug donations and donor support of distribution costs. Copyright 2009 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Methodology of social and environmental external costs estimation in the Ukraine’s energy sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karaieva Nataliia Veniaminivna

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Paper objective is analysis of the external costs assessment model for the eco-social damage, and/or human capital losses caused by environmental pollution from the energy enterprises in Ukraine. Using the given method, necessary initial socio-economic parameters were defined and used for calculating the social costs of capital health losses in Ukraine due to deterioration of the environment, and due to the negative impact of energy sector on the air quality for the period 2002-2013. On the proposed technique determines the range value of social losses due to the negative impact of energy on air quality in Ukraine excluding future external costs for years 2002 – 2013 ranges from 1.6 – 4.5% of GDP, and the range of values of taking into account future costs is 2.0 – 6.2% of GDP.

  11. Spreadsheet tool for estimating noise reduction costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, L.; Senden, V.; Leszczynski, Y.

    2009-01-01

    The Northeast Capital Industrial Association (NCIA) represents industry in Alberta's industrial heartland. The organization is in the process of developing a regional noise management plan (RNMP) for their member companies. The RNMP includes the development of a noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool to conduct reviews of practical noise control treatments available for individual plant equipment, inclusive of ranges of noise attenuation achievable, which produces a budgetary prediction of the installed cost of practical noise control treatments. This paper discussed the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool, with particular reference to noise control best practices approaches and spreadsheet tool development such as prerequisite, assembling data required, approach, and unit pricing database. Use and optimization of the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool was also discussed. It was concluded that the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool is an easy interactive tool to estimate implementation costs related to different strategies and options of noise control mitigating measures and was very helpful in gaining insight for noise control planning purposes. 2 tabs.

  12. A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

  13. ALARA cost/benefit analysis at Union Electric company using the ARP/AI methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.C.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a specific method for justification of expenditures associated with reducing occupational radiation exposure to as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA). This methodology is based on the concepts of the Apparebt Reduction Potential (ARP) and Achievability index (AI) as described in NUREG/CR-0446, Union Eletric's corporate planning model and the EPRI Model for dose rate buildup with reactor operating life. The ARP provides a screening test to determine if there is a need for ALARA expenditures based on actual or predicted exposure rates and/or dose experience. The AI is a means of assessing all costs and all benefits, even though they are expressed in different units of measurement such as person-rem and dollars, to determine if ALARA expenditures are justified and their value. This method of cost/benefit analysis can be applied by any company or organization utilizing site-specific exposure and dose rate data, and incorporating consideration of administrative exposure controls which may vary from organization to organization. Specific example cases are presented and compared to other methodologies for ALARA cost/benefit analysis

  14. Heuristic Methodology for Estimating the Liquid Biofuel Potential of a Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorel Dusmanescu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a heuristic methodology for estimating the possible variation of the liquid biofuel potential of a region, an appraisal made for a future period of time. The determination of the liquid biofuel potential has been made up either on the account of an average (constant yield of the energetic crops that were used, or on the account of a yield that varies depending on a known trend, which can be estimated through a certain method. The proposed methodology uses the variation of the yield of energetic crops over time in order to simulate a variation of the biofuel potential for a future ten year time period. This new approach to the problem of determining the liquid biofuel potential of a certain land area can be useful for investors, as it allows making a more realistic analysis of the investment risk and of the possibilities of recovering the investment. On the other hand, the presented methodology can be useful to the governmental administration in order to elaborate strategies and policies to ensure the necessity of fuels and liquid biofuels for transportation, in a certain area. Unlike current methods, which approach the problem of determining the liquid biofuel potential in a deterministic way, by using econometric methods, the proposed methodology uses heuristic reasoning schemes in order to reduce the great number of factors that actually influence the biofuel potential and which usually have unknown values.

  15. Cost update: Technology, safety, and costs of decommissioning a reference uranium fuel fabrication plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miles, T.L.; Liu, Y.

    1994-06-01

    The cost estimates originally developed in NUREG/CR-1266 for commissioning a reference low-enrichment uranium fuel fabrication plant are updated from 1978 to early 1993 dollars. During this time, the costs for labor and materials increased approximately at the rate of inflation, the cost of energy increased more slowly than the rate of inflation, and the cost of low-level radioactive waste disposal increased much more rapidly than the rate of inflation. The results of the analysis indicate that the estimated costs for the immediate dismantlement and decontamination for unrestricted facility release (DECON) of the reference plant have increased from the mid-1978 value of $3.57 million to $8.08 million in 1993 with in-compact low-level radioactive waste disposal at the US Ecoloay facility near Richland, Washington. The cost estimate rises to $19.62 million with out-of-compact radioactive waste disposal at the Chem-Nuclear facility near Barnwell, South Carolina. A methodology and a formula are presented for estimating the cost of decommissioning the reference uranium fuel fabrication plant at some future time, based on these early 1993 cost estimates. The formula contains essentially the same elements as the formula given in 10 CFR 50.75 for escalating the decommissioning costs for nuclear power reactors to some future time

  16. Estimating the Hospital Burden of Norovirus-Associated Gastroenteritis in England and its Opportunity Costs for Non-Admitted Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandmann, Frank G; Shallcross, Laura; Adams, Natalie; Allen, David J; Coen, Pietro G; Jeanes, Annette; Kozlakidis, Zisis; Larkin, Lesley; Wurie, Fatima; Robotham, Julie V; Jit, Mark; Deeny, Sarah R

    2018-02-26

    Norovirus places a substantial burden on healthcare systems, arising from infected patients, disease outbreaks, beds kept unoccupied for infection control, and staff absences due to infection. In settings with high rates of bed occupancy, opportunity costs arise from patients who cannot be admitted due to beds being unavailable. With several treatments and vaccines against norovirus in development, quantifying the expected economic burden is timely. The number of inpatients with norovirus-associated gastroenteritis in England were modelled using infectious and non-infectious gastrointestinal Hospital Episode Statistics codes and laboratory reports of gastrointestinal pathogens collected at Public Health England. The excess length of stay from norovirus was estimated with a multi-state model and local outbreak data. Unoccupied bed-days and staff absences were estimated from national outbreak surveillance. The burden was valued conventionally using accounting expenditures and wages, which we contrasted to the opportunity costs from forgone patients using a novel methodology. Between July 2013 and June 2016, 17.7% (95%-confidence interval: 15.6%‒21.6%) of primary and 23.8% (20.6%‒29.9%) of secondary gastrointestinal diagnoses were norovirus-attributable. Annually, the estimated median 290,000 (interquartile range: 282,000‒297,000) occupied and unoccupied bed-days used for norovirus displaced 57,800 patients. Conventional costs for the National Health Service reached £107.6 million; the economic burden approximated to £297.7 million and a loss of 6,300 quality-adjusted life years annually. In England, norovirus is now the second-largest contributor of the gastrointestinal hospital burden. With the projected impact being greater than previously estimated, improved capture of relevant opportunity costs seems imperative for diseases like norovirus.

  17. Estimated incremental costs for NRC licensees to implement the US/IAEA safeguards agreement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, R.G.; Brouns, R.J.; Chockie, A.D.; Davenport, L.C.; Merrill, J.A.

    1979-01-01

    A study was recently completed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commision (NRC) by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to identify the incremental cost of implementing the US/IAEA safeguards treaty agreement to eligible NRC licensees. Sources for the study were cost estimates from several licensees who will be affected by the agreement and cost analyses by PNL staff. The initial cost to all eligible licensees to implement the agreement is estimated by PNL to range from $1.9 to $7.2 million. The annual cost to these same licensees for the required accounting and reporting activities is estimated at $0.5 to $1.5 million. Annual inspection costs to the industry for the limited IAEA inspection being assumed is estimated at $80,000 to $160,000

  18. Costs of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.; Tishchishyna, N.I.

    2000-01-01

    Oil dependence remains a potentially serious economic and strategic problem for the United States. This report updates previous estimates of the costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy and introduces several methodological enhancements. Estimates of the costs to the U.S. economy of the oil market upheavals of the last 30 years are in the vicinity of $7 trillion, present value 1998 dollars, about as large as the sum total of payments on the national debt over the same period. Simply adding up historical costs in 1998 dollars without converting to present value results in a Base Case cost estimate of $3.4 trillion. Sensitivity analysis indicates that cost estimates are sensitive to key parameters. A lower bound estimate of $1.7 trillion and an upper bound of $7.1 trillion (not present value) indicate that the costs of oil dependence have been large under almost any plausible set of assumptions. These cost estimates do not include military, strategic or political costs associated with U.S. and world dependence on oil imports

  19. Cost of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.; Tishchishyna, N.I.

    2000-05-01

    Oil dependence remains a potentially serious economic and strategic problem for the United States. This report updates previous estimates of the costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy and introduces several methodological enhancements. Estimates of the costs to the U.S. economy of the oil market upheavals of the last 30 years are in the vicinity of $7 trillion, present value 1998 dollars, about as large as the sum total of payments on the national debt over the same period. Simply adding up historical costs in 1998 dollars without converting to present value results in a Base Case cost estimate of $3.4 trillion. Sensitivity analysis indicates that cost estimates are sensitive to key parameters. A lower bound estimate of $1.7 trillion and an upper bound of $7.1 trillion (not present value) indicate that the costs of oil dependence have been large under almost any plausible set of assumptions. These cost estimates do not include military, strategic or political costs associated with U.S. and world dependence on oil imports.

  20. Costs of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    2000-05-17

    Oil dependence remains a potentially serious economic and strategic problem for the United States. This report updates previous estimates of the costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy and introduces several methodological enhancements. Estimates of the costs to the U.S. economy of the oil market upheavals of the last 30 years are in the vicinity of $7 trillion, present value 1998 dollars, about as large as the sum total of payments on the national debt over the same period. Simply adding up historical costs in 1998 dollars without converting to present value results in a Base Case cost estimate of $3.4 trillion. Sensitivity analysis indicates that cost estimates are sensitive to key parameters. A lower bound estimate of $1.7 trillion and an upper bound of $7.1 trillion (not present value) indicate that the costs of oil dependence have been large under almost any plausible set of assumptions. These cost estimates do not include military, strategic or political costs associated with U.S. and world dependence on oil imports.

  1. Methodological Framework for Estimating the Correlation Dimension in HRV Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Bolea

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodological framework for robust estimation of the correlation dimension in HRV signals. It includes (i a fast algorithm for on-line computation of correlation sums; (ii log-log curves fitting to a sigmoidal function for robust maximum slope estimation discarding the estimation according to fitting requirements; (iii three different approaches for linear region slope estimation based on latter point; and (iv exponential fitting for robust estimation of saturation level of slope series with increasing embedded dimension to finally obtain the correlation dimension estimate. Each approach for slope estimation leads to a correlation dimension estimate, called D^2, D^2⊥, and D^2max. D^2 and D^2max estimate the theoretical value of correlation dimension for the Lorenz attractor with relative error of 4%, and D^2⊥ with 1%. The three approaches are applied to HRV signals of pregnant women before spinal anesthesia for cesarean delivery in order to identify patients at risk for hypotension. D^2 keeps the 81% of accuracy previously described in the literature while D^2⊥ and D^2max approaches reach 91% of accuracy in the same database.

  2. Differences in methodologies used for externality assessment. Why are the numbers different?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schleisner, Lotte

    1999-06-01

    During the last few years, externalities related to power production technologies have been calculated making use of different methodologies. The external costs may turn out to be very different for the same fuel cycle depending on the methodology that has been used to assess the externalities. The report gives a review of different valuation issues, which are used in different externality studies and focuses on why the numbers often are different for the same fuel cycle, using different methodologies for assessment of the externalities. The review of externality valuation focuses in this report on the assessment of environmental externalities. Importance has been attached to health effects, as these are the dominating effects in the external costs. Other effects are only mentioned on a superior level. The report points out different parameters, which are important to consider when externalities estimated for the same fuel cycle in different studies are compared. 8 studies have been chosen for further analysis and comparison in order to show the variation in external costs. The comparison shows the importance of possessing knowledge of which kind of methodologies have been used, which impacts are included etc. to explain why the numbers vary so much in different studies for the same fuel cycle. As an example a comparison of the impacts and damage costs related to air emissions has been made for three studies using different methodologies. The external costs are estimated for the same reference plant using the dispersion models, dose-response functions, impacts and monetary values from the three studies. The estimates from the three studies are compared two and two, and a more detailed analysis is performed in relation to human health, which is the dominating impact in all externality studies. (au) EFP-97. 29 tabs., 12 ills., 34 refs.

  3. Differences in methodologies used for externality assessment. Why are the numbers different?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleisner, Lotte

    1999-06-01

    During the last few years, externalities related to power production technologies have been calculated making use of different methodologies. The external costs may turn out to be very different for the same fuel cycle depending on the methodology that has been used to assess the externalities. The report gives a review of different valuation issues, which are used in different externality studies and focuses on why the numbers often are different for the same fuel cycle, using different methodologies for assessment of the externalities. The review of externality valuation focuses in this report on the assessment of environmental externalities. Importance has been attached to health effects, as these are the dominating effects in the external costs. Other effects are only mentioned on a superior level. The report points out different parameters, which are important to consider when externalities estimated for the same fuel cycle in different studies are compared. 8 studies have been chosen for further analysis and comparison in order to show the variation in external costs. The comparison shows the importance of possessing knowledge of which kind of methodologies have been used, which impacts are included etc. to explain why the numbers vary so much in different studies for the same fuel cycle. As an example a comparison of the impacts and damage costs related to air emissions has been made for three studies using different methodologies. The external costs are estimated for the same reference plant using the dispersion models, dose-response functions, impacts and monetary values from the three studies. The estimates from the three studies are compared two and two, and a more detailed analysis is performed in relation to human health, which is the dominating impact in all externality studies. (au) EFP-97. 29 tabs., 12 ills., 34 refs

  4. Estimated annual cost of arterial hypertension treatment in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dib, Murilo W; Riera, Rachel; Ferraz, Marcos B

    2010-02-01

    To estimate the direct annual cost of systemic arterial hypertension (SAH) treatment in Brazil's public and private health care systems, assess its economic impact on the total health care budget, and determine its proportion of the 2005 gross domestic product (GDP). A decision tree model was used to determine direct costs based on estimated use of various resources in SAH diagnosis and care, including treatment (medication and non-medication), complementary exams, doctor visits, nutritional assessments, and emergency room visits. Estimated direct annual cost of SAH treatment was approximately US$ 398.9 million for the public health care system and US$ 272.7 million for the private system, representing 0.08% of the 2005 GDP (ranging from 0.05% to 0.16%). With total health care expenses comprising about 7.6% of Brazil's GDP, this cost represented 1.11% of overall health care costs (0.62% to 2.06%)-1.43% of total expenses for the Unified Healthcare System (Sistema Unico de Saúde, SUS) (0.79% to 2.75%) and 0.83% of expenses for the private health care system (0.47% to 1.48%). Conclusion. To guarantee public or private health care based on the principles of universality and equality, with limited available resources, efforts must be focused on educating the population on prevention and treatment compliance in diseases such as SAH that require significant health resources.

  5. The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinja, Shankar; Bahuguna, Pankaj; Pinto, Andrew D; Sharma, Atul; Bharaj, Gursimer; Kumar, Vishal; Tripathy, Jaya Prasad; Kaur, Manmeet; Kumar, Rajesh

    2012-01-01

    As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73) per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8%) of the GDP for universalizing health care services. The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

  6. U.S. Refinery compliance costs - the elements of and estimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musgrove, J.G.; Swain, E.J.

    1993-01-01

    A recent National Petroleum Council study identified the environmental costs facing the refining industry from 1995 through 2010. Four broad areas were identified: air pollution control, wastewater treatment, solid and hazardous waste treatment, and occupational health and safety. This paper will present the technical issues and engineering information required to produce an estimate of cost impact. For each of the four areas of impact, the kinds of information required of the refinery manager in order to build an estimate will be tabulated and discussed. For air pollution control, issues will include size and type of unit, product mix of output, and the impact of facility location relative to non-attainment issues. For wastewater, issues will include stormwater segregation, benzene NESHAP, and other treatment system requirements. For hazardous waste treatment, issues will include groundwater protection and leak detection and contaminated soil segregation. For occupational health and safety, issues will include process changes required and worker training required. For all issues, the major dollar factors will be identified as a function of the technical data available. The refinery costs in each areas were estimated for seven groups of refinery sizes. The presentation will conclude with tabulation of cost estimates for each area of investigation and each refinery group. The total costs for each refinery group over the fifteen-year period will also be presented

  7. The cost of child health inequalities in Aotearoa New Zealand: a preliminary scoping study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Clair; Reid, Papaarangi; Vaithianathan, Rhema

    2012-05-28

    Health inequalities have been extensively documented, internationally and in New Zealand. The cost of reducing health inequities is often perceived as high; however, recent international studies suggest the cost of "doing nothing" is itself significant. This study aimed to develop a preliminary estimate of the economic cost of health inequities between Māori (indigenous) and non-Māori children in New Zealand. Standard quantitative epidemiological methods and "cost of illness" methodology were employed, within a Kaupapa Māori theoretical framework. Data were obtained from national data collections held by the New Zealand Health Information Service and other health sector agencies. Preliminary estimates suggest child health inequities between Māori and non-Māori in New Zealand are cost-saving to the health sector. However the societal costs are significant. A conservative "base case" scenario estimate is over $NZ62 million per year, while alternative costing methods yield larger costs of nearly $NZ200 million per annum. The total cost estimate is highly sensitive to the costing method used and Value of Statistical Life applied, as the cost of potentially avoidable deaths of Māori children is the major contributor to this estimate. This preliminary study suggests that health sector spending is skewed towards non-Māori children despite evidence of greater Māori need. Persistent child health inequities result in significant societal economic costs. Eliminating child health inequities, particularly in primary care access, could result in significant economic benefits for New Zealand. However, there are conceptual, ethical and methodological challenges in estimating the economic cost of child health inequities. Re-thinking of traditional economic frameworks and development of more appropriate methodologies is required.

  8. Guidelines for producing commercial nuclear power plant decommissioning cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Guardia, T.S.

    1986-01-01

    The guidelines are not intended to be a ''cookbook'' or a ''standard''. Their purpose is to ensure all decomissioning cost elements are properly included and to provide guidance on the detail required. Other methodologies may be used if they accomplish this objective

  9. Estimated Incident Cost Savings in Shipping Due to Inspections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Knapp (Sabine); G.E. Bijwaard (Govert); C. Heij (Christiaan)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe effectiveness of safety inspections has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper quantifies estimated cost savings based on port state control inspections and

  10. ANN Based Approach for Estimation of Construction Costs of Sports Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Juszczyk

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimates are essential for the success of construction projects. Neural networks, as the tools of artificial intelligence, offer a significant potential in this field. Applying neural networks, however, requires respective studies due to the specifics of different kinds of facilities. This paper presents the proposal of an approach to the estimation of construction costs of sports fields which is based on neural networks. The general applicability of artificial neural networks in the formulated problem with cost estimation is investigated. An applicability of multilayer perceptron networks is confirmed by the results of the initial training of a set of various artificial neural networks. Moreover, one network was tailored for mapping a relationship between the total cost of construction works and the selected cost predictors which are characteristic of sports fields. Its prediction quality and accuracy were assessed positively. The research results legitimatize the proposed approach.

  11. Site restoration: Estimation of attributable costs from plutonium-dispersal accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanin, D.I.; Murfin, W.B.

    1996-05-01

    A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occur in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of cost estimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response

  12. Site restoration: Estimation of attributable costs from plutonium-dispersal accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chanin, D.I.; Murfin, W.B. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1996-05-01

    A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occur in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of cost estimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response.

  13. The avoided external costs of using wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Markandya, A [Harvard Inst. for International Development, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This article discusses the external costs of electricity generated by conventional fossil fuel sources, such as coal and nuclear power. It compares the costs of electricity generated with coal with that generated with wind. A measure of the benefits of wind energy is the difference between these two external costs. The methodology used for the estimation of the external costs, as well as the estimates of these costs, are taken from the EC ExternE study, financed by DGXII of the European Commission. The present author was a lead economist for that study. (author)

  14. The avoided external costs of using wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Markandya, A. [Harvard Inst. for International Development, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This article discusses the external costs of electricity generated by conventional fossil fuel sources, such as coal and nuclear power. It compares the costs of electricity generated with coal with that generated with wind. A measure of the benefits of wind energy is the difference between these two external costs. The methodology used for the estimation of the external costs, as well as the estimates of these costs, are taken from the EC ExternE study, financed by DGXII of the European Commission. The present author was a lead economist for that study. (author)

  15. The avoided external costs of using wind energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markandya, A.

    1995-01-01

    This article discusses the external costs of electricity generated by conventional fossil fuel sources, such as coal and nuclear power. It compares the costs of electricity generated with coal with that generated with wind. A measure of the benefits of wind energy is the difference between these two external costs. The methodology used for the estimation of the external costs, as well as the estimates of these costs, are taken from the EC ExternE study, financed by DGXII of the European Commission. The present author was a lead economist for that study. (author)

  16. Review of the Palisades pressure vessel accumulated fluence estimate and of the least squares methodology employed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffin, P.J.

    1998-05-01

    This report provides a review of the Palisades submittal to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission requesting endorsement of their accumulated neutron fluence estimates based on a least squares adjustment methodology. This review highlights some minor issues in the applied methodology and provides some recommendations for future work. The overall conclusion is that the Palisades fluence estimation methodology provides a reasonable approach to a open-quotes best estimateclose quotes of the accumulated pressure vessel neutron fluence and is consistent with the state-of-the-art analysis as detailed in community consensus ASTM standards

  17. A Cost Simulation Tool for Estimating the Cost of Operating Government Owned and Operated Ships

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    Horngren , C.T., Foster, G., Datar, S.M., Cost Accounting : A Management Emphasis, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1994 IBM Corporation, A Graphical...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A COST SIMULATION TOOL FOR 5. FUNDING NUMBERS ESTIMATING THE COST OF OPERATING GOVERNMENT OWNED AND OPERATED SHIPS 6. AUTHOR( S ...normally does not present a problem to the accounting department. The final category, the cost of operating the government owned and operated ships is

  18. Estimation of CO2 emissions from China’s cement production: Methodologies and uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ke, Jing; McNeil, Michael; Price, Lynn; Khanna, Nina Zheng; Zhou, Nan

    2013-01-01

    In 2010, China’s cement output was 1.9 Gt, which accounted for 56% of world cement production. Total carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from Chinese cement production could therefore exceed 1.2 Gt. The magnitude of emissions from this single industrial sector in one country underscores the need to understand the uncertainty of current estimates of cement emissions in China. This paper compares several methodologies for calculating CO 2 emissions from cement production, including the three main components of emissions: direct emissions from the calcination process for clinker production, direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and indirect emissions from electricity consumption. This paper examines in detail the differences between common methodologies for each emission component, and considers their effect on total emissions. We then evaluate the overall level of uncertainty implied by the differences among methodologies according to recommendations of the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology. We find a relative uncertainty in China’s cement-related emissions in the range of 10 to 18%. This result highlights the importance of understanding and refining methods of estimating emissions in this important industrial sector. - Highlights: ► CO 2 emission estimates are critical given China’s cement production scale. ► Methodological differences for emission components are compared. ► Results show relative uncertainty in China’s cement-related emissions of about 10%. ► IPCC Guidelines and CSI Cement CO 2 and Energy Protocol are recommended

  19. Development of Methodologies for the Estimation of Thermal Properties Associated with Aerospace Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Elaine P.

    1996-01-01

    A thermal stress analysis is an important aspect in the design of aerospace structures and vehicles such as the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Langley Research Center (NASA-LaRC). These structures are complex and are often composed of numerous components fabricated from a variety of different materials. The thermal loads on these structures induce temperature variations within the structure, which in turn result in the development of thermal stresses. Therefore, a thermal stress analysis requires knowledge of the temperature distributions within the structures which consequently necessitates the need for accurate knowledge of the thermal properties, boundary conditions and thermal interface conditions associated with the structural materials. The goal of this proposed multi-year research effort was to develop estimation methodologies for the determination of the thermal properties and interface conditions associated with aerospace vehicles. Specific objectives focused on the development and implementation of optimal experimental design strategies and methodologies for the estimation of thermal properties associated with simple composite and honeycomb structures. The strategy used in this multi-year research effort was to first develop methodologies for relatively simple systems and then systematically modify these methodologies to analyze complex structures. This can be thought of as a building block approach. This strategy was intended to promote maximum usability of the resulting estimation procedure by NASA-LARC researchers through the design of in-house experimentation procedures and through the use of an existing general purpose finite element software.

  20. Estimates and implications of the costs of compliance with biosafety regulations in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falck-Zepeda, Jose; Yorobe, Jose; Husin, Bahagiawati Amir; Manalo, Abraham; Lokollo, Erna; Ramon, Godfrey; Zambrano, Patricia; Sutrisno

    2012-01-01

    Estimating the cost of compliance with biosafety regulations is important as it helps developers focus their investments in producer development. We provide estimates for the cost of compliance for a set of technologies in Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries. These costs vary from US $100,000 to 1.7 million. These are estimates of regulatory costs and do not include product development or deployment costs. Cost estimates need to be compared with potential gains when the technology is introduced in these countries and the gains in knowledge accumulate during the biosafety assessment process. Although the cost of compliance is important, time delays and uncertainty are even more important and may have an adverse impact on innovations reaching farmers.

  1. The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankar Prinja

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. METHODS: We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. RESULTS: We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73 per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8% of the GDP for universalizing health care services. CONCLUSION: The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

  2. The Hospitalization Costs of Diabetes and Hypertension Complications in Zimbabwe: Estimations and Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutsa P. Mutowo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Treating complications associated with diabetes and hypertension imposes significant costs on health care systems. This study estimated the hospitalization costs for inpatients in a public hospital in Zimbabwe. Methods. The study was retrospective and utilized secondary data from medical records. Total hospitalization costs were estimated using generalized linear models. Results. The median cost and interquartile range (IQR for patients with diabetes, $994 (385–1553 mean $1319 (95% CI: 981–1657, was higher than patients with hypertension, $759 (494–1147 mean $914 (95% CI: 825–1003. Female patients aged below 65 years with diabetes had the highest estimated mean costs ($1467 (95% CI: 1177–1828. Wound care had the highest estimated mean cost of all procedures, $2884 (95% CI: 2004–4149 for patients with diabetes and $2239 (95% CI: 1589–3156 for patients with hypertension. Age below 65 years, medical procedures (amputation, wound care, dialysis, and physiotherapy, the presence of two or more comorbidities, and being prescribed two or more drugs were associated with significantly higher hospitalization costs. Conclusion. Our estimated costs could be used to evaluate and improve current inpatient treatment and management of patients with diabetes and hypertension and determine the most cost-effective interventions to prevent complications and comorbidities.

  3. Nuclear reactor conceptual design: methodology for cost-effective internalisation of nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gimenez, M.; Grinblat, P.; Schlamp, M.

    2002-01-01

    A novel and promising methodology to perform nuclear reactor design is presented in this work. It achieves to balance efficiently safety and economics at the conceptual engineering stage. The key to this integral approach is to take into account safety aspects in a design optimisation process where the design variables are balanced in order to obtain a better figure of merit related with reactor economic performance. Design parameter effects on characteristic or critical safety variables, chosen from reactor behaviour during accidents and from its probabilistic safety assessment -safety performance indicators-, are synthesised on Safety Design Maps. These maps allow one to compare these indicators with limit values, which are determined by design criteria or regulations, and to transfer these restrictions to the design parameters. In this way, reactor dynamic response and other safety aspects are integrated in a global optimisation process, by means of additional rules to the neutronic, thermal-hydraulic and mechanical calculations. This methodology turns out to be promising to balance and optimise reactor and safety system design in an early engineering stage, in order to internalise cost-efficiently safety issues. It also allows one to evaluate the incremental costs of implementing higher safety levels. Furthermore, through this methodology, a simplified design can be obtained, compared to the resultant complexity when these concepts are introduced in a later engineering stage. (author)

  4. Estimating the costs of intensity-modulated and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy in Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, J H E; McGowan, T; Redmond-Misner, R; Beca, J; Warde, P; Gutierrez, E; Hoch, J S

    2016-06-01

    Radiotherapy is a common treatment for many cancers, but up-to-date estimates of the costs of radiotherapy are lacking. In the present study, we estimated the unit costs of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (imrt) and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-crt) in Ontario. An activity-based costing model was developed to estimate the costs of imrt and 3D-crt in prostate cancer. It included the costs of equipment, staff, and supporting infrastructure. The framework was subsequently adapted to estimate the costs of radiotherapy in breast cancer and head-and-neck cancer. We also tested various scenarios by varying the program maturity and the use of volumetric modulated arc therapy (vmat) alongside imrt. From the perspective of the health care system, treating prostate cancer with imrt and 3D-crt respectively cost $12,834 and $12,453 per patient. The cost of radiotherapy ranged from $5,270 to $14,155 and was sensitive to analytic perspective, radiation technique, and disease site. Cases of head-and-neck cancer were the most costly, being driven by treatment complexity and fractions per treatment. Although imrt was more costly than 3D-crt, its cost will likely decline over time as programs mature and vmat is incorporated. Our costing model can be modified to estimate the costs of 3D-crt and imrt for various disease sites and settings. The results demonstrate the important role of capital costs in studies of radiotherapy cost from a health system perspective, which our model can accommodate. In addition, our study established the need for future analyses of imrt cost to consider how vmat affects time consumption.

  5. Estimation of cellular manufacturing cost components using simulation and activity-based costing

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Savory; Robert Williams

    2010-01-01

    It can be difficult estimating all of the cost components that are attributed to a machined part.  This problem is more pronounced when a factory uses group technology manufacturing cells as opposed to a functional or process layout of a job shop.  This paper describes how activity-based costing (ABC) concepts can be integrated into a discrete-event simulation model of a U-shaped manufacturing cell producing a part family with four members.  The simulation model generates detai...

  6. Estimation of cellular manufacturing cost components using simulation and activity-based costing

    OpenAIRE

    Savory, Paul

    2010-01-01

    It can be difficult estimating all of the cost components that are attributed to a machined part. This problem is more pronounced when a factory uses group technology manufacturing cells as opposed to a functional or process layout of a job shop. This paper describes how activity-based costing (ABC) concepts can be integrated into a discrete-event simulation model of a U-shaped manufacturing cell producing a part family with four members. The simulation model generates detailed Bills of Ac...

  7. Cost estimation of the future harvest as agricultural loan collateral

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vnukova, N. N.

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to attempt developing recommendations which may improve the overall banking technique of future cropping cost estimating. Objectives that have been set to achieve this aim are: to analyze alternative techniques of future cropping cost estimating; to perform calculation according to the selected techniques for 10 agricultural companies from different regions of Ukraine; to compare the techniques by means of hierarchy analysis method.

  8. A systematic methodology to estimate added sugar content of foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louie, J C Y; Moshtaghian, H; Boylan, S; Flood, V M; Rangan, A M; Barclay, A W; Brand-Miller, J C; Gill, T P

    2015-02-01

    The effect of added sugar on health is a topical area of research. However, there is currently no analytical or other method to easily distinguish between added sugars and naturally occurring sugars in foods. This study aimed to develop a systematic methodology to estimate added sugar values on the basis of analytical data and ingredients of foods. A 10-step, stepwise protocol was developed, starting with objective measures (six steps) and followed by more subjective estimation (four steps) if insufficient objective data are available. The method developed was applied to an Australian food composition database (AUSNUT2007) as an example. Out of the 3874 foods available in AUSNUT2007, 2977 foods (77%) were assigned an estimated value on the basis of objective measures (steps 1-6), and 897 (23%) were assigned a subjectively estimated value (steps 7-10). Repeatability analysis showed good repeatability for estimated values in this method. We propose that this method can be considered as a standardised approach for the estimation of added sugar content of foods to improve cross-study comparison.

  9. Cost and Benefit Analysis of an Automated Nursing Administration System: A Methodology*

    OpenAIRE

    Rieder, Karen A.

    1984-01-01

    In order for a nursing service administration to select the appropriate automated system for its requirements, a systematic process of evaluating alternative approaches must be completed. This paper describes a methodology for evaluating and comparing alternative automated systems based upon an economic analysis which includes two major categories of criteria: costs and benefits.

  10. Computer software to estimate timber harvesting system production, cost, and revenue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dr. John E. Baumgras; Dr. Chris B. LeDoux

    1992-01-01

    Large variations in timber harvesting cost and revenue can result from the differences between harvesting systems, the variable attributes of harvesting sites and timber stands, or changing product markets. Consequently, system and site specific estimates of production rates and costs are required to improve estimates of harvesting revenue. This paper describes...

  11. Physician awareness of drug cost: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, G Michael; Lexchin, Joel; Wiebe, Natasha

    2007-09-01

    Pharmaceutical costs are the fastest-growing health-care expense in most developed countries. Higher drug costs have been shown to negatively impact patient outcomes. Studies suggest that doctors have a poor understanding of pharmaceutical costs, but the data are variable and there is no consistent pattern in awareness. We designed this systematic review to investigate doctors' knowledge of the relative and absolute costs of medications and to determine the factors that influence awareness. Our search strategy included The Cochrane Library, EconoLit, EMBASE, and MEDLINE as well as reference lists and contact with authors who had published two or more articles on the topic or who had published within 10 y of the commencement of our review. Studies were included if: either doctors, trainees (interns or residents), or medical students were surveyed; there were more than ten survey respondents; cost of pharmaceuticals was estimated; results were expressed quantitatively; there was a clear description of how authors defined "accurate estimates"; and there was a description of how the true cost was determined. Two authors reviewed each article for eligibility and extracted data independently. Cost accuracy outcomes were summarized, but data were not combined in meta-analysis because of extensive heterogeneity. Qualitative data related to physicians and drug costs were also extracted. The final analysis included 24 articles. Cost accuracy was low; 31% of estimates were within 20% or 25% of the true cost, and fewer than 50% were accurate by any definition of cost accuracy. Methodological weaknesses were common, and studies of low methodological quality showed better cost awareness. The most important factor influencing the pattern and accuracy of estimation was the true cost of therapy. High-cost drugs were estimated more accurately than inexpensive ones (74% versus 31%, Chi-square p price of expensive drugs and overestimate the price of inexpensive ones, demonstrate a

  12. Life-cycle costs for the Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement (draft)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherick, M.J.; Shropshire, D.E.; Hsu, K.M.

    1995-08-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management has produced a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) in order to assess the potential consequences resulting from a cross section of possible waste management strategies for the DOE complex. The PEIS has been prepared in compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act, and includes evaluations of a variety of alternatives. The analysis performed for the PEIS included the development of life-cycle cost estimates for the different waste management alternatives being considered. These cost estimates were used in the PEIS to support the identification and evaluation of economic impacts. Information developed during the preparation of the life-cycle cost estimates was also used to support risk and socioeconomic analyses performed for each of the alternatives. This technical report provides an overview of the methodology used to develop the life-cycle cost estimates for the PEIS alternatives. The methodology that was applied made use of the Waste Management Facility Cost Information Reports, which provided a consistent approach and estimating basis for the PEIS cost evaluations. By maintaining consistency throughout the cost analyses, life-cycle costs of the various alternatives can be compared and evaluated on a relative basis. This technical report also includes the life-cycle cost estimate results for each of the PEIS alternatives evaluated. Summary graphs showing the results for each waste type are provided in the main document, and tables showing different breakdowns of the cost estimates are provided in the Appendices A-D. Appendix E contains PEIS cost information that was developed using an approach different than the standard methodology described in this report

  13. Estimation of Damage Costs Associated with Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, T. A.; Wauthier, C.; Zipp, K.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the possibility of creating a mathematical function that enables the estimation of flood-damage costs. We begin by examining the costs associated with past flood events in the United States. The data on these tropical storms and hurricanes are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the location, extent of flooding, and damage reparation costs identified, we analyze variables such as: number of inches rained, land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. We seek to identify the leading drivers of high flood-damage costs and understand which variables play a large role in the costliness of these weather events. Upon completion of our mathematical analysis, we turn out attention to the 2017 natural disaster of Texas. We divide the region, as we did above, by land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. Then, we overlay the number of inches rained in those regions onto the divided landscape and apply our function. We hope to use these findings to estimate the potential flood-damage costs of Hurricane Harvey. This information is then transformed into a hazard map that could provide citizens and businesses of flood-stricken zones additional resources for their insurance selection process.

  14. Cost estimation for solid waste management in industrialising regions – Precedents, problems and prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parthan, Shantha R.; Milke, Mark W.; Wilson, David C.; Cocks, John H.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We review cost estimation approaches for solid waste management. ► Unit cost method and benchmarking techniques used in industrialising regions (IR). ► Variety in scope, quality and stakeholders makes cost estimation challenging in IR. ► Integrate waste flow and cost models using cost functions to improve cost planning. - Abstract: The importance of cost planning for solid waste management (SWM) in industrialising regions (IR) is not well recognised. The approaches used to estimate costs of SWM can broadly be classified into three categories – the unit cost method, benchmarking techniques and developing cost models using sub-approaches such as cost and production function analysis. These methods have been developed into computer programmes with varying functionality and utility. IR mostly use the unit cost and benchmarking approach to estimate their SWM costs. The models for cost estimation, on the other hand, are used at times in industrialised countries, but not in IR. Taken together, these approaches could be viewed as precedents that can be modified appropriately to suit waste management systems in IR. The main challenges (or problems) one might face while attempting to do so are a lack of cost data, and a lack of quality for what data do exist. There are practical benefits to planners in IR where solid waste problems are critical and budgets are limited.

  15. Predicting Software Projects Cost Estimation Based on Mining Historical Data

    OpenAIRE

    Najadat, Hassan; Alsmadi, Izzat; Shboul, Yazan

    2012-01-01

    In this research, a hybrid cost estimation model is proposed to produce a realistic prediction model that takes into consideration software project, product, process, and environmental elements. A cost estimation dataset is built from a large number of open source projects. Those projects are divided into three domains: communication, finance, and game projects. Several data mining techniques are used to classify software projects in terms of their development complexity. Data mining techniqu...

  16. Applying Insights from Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) to Improve DoD Cost Estimation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Angelis, Diana I; Dillard, John; Franck, Raymond; Melese, Francois

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to explore the possibility of improving DoD cost estimation methods by including explanatory variables that capture the coordination and motivation problems associated with the program...

  17. Nuclear generating station and heavy water plant cost estimates for strategy studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Archinoff, G.H.

    1979-07-01

    Nuclear generating station capital, operating and maintenance costs are basic input data for strategy analyses of alternate nuclear fuel cycles. This report presents estimates of these costs for natural uranium CANDU stations, CANDU stations operating on advanced fuel cycles, and liquid metal fast breeder reactors. Cost estimates for heavy water plants are also presented. The results show that station capital costs for advanced fuel cycles are not expected to be significantly greater than those for natural uranium stations. LMFBR capital costs are expected to be 25-30 percent greater than for CANDU's. (auth)

  18. Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Cost Estimates for Advanced Fuel Cycle Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Presentation Outline: • Why Do I Need a Cost Basis?; • History of the Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis; • Description of the Cost Basis; • Current Work; • Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Applications; • Sample Fuel Cycle Cost Estimate Analysis; • Future Work

  19. Estimating Engineering and Manufacturing Development Cost Risk Using Logistic and Multiple Regression

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bielecki, John

    2003-01-01

    .... Previous research has demonstrated the use of a two-step logistic and multiple regression methodology to predicting cost growth produces desirable results versus traditional single-step regression...

  20. The cost of child health inequalities in Aotearoa New Zealand: a preliminary scoping study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mills Clair

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health inequalities have been extensively documented, internationally and in New Zealand. The cost of reducing health inequities is often perceived as high; however, recent international studies suggest the cost of “doing nothing” is itself significant. This study aimed to develop a preliminary estimate of the economic cost of health inequities between Māori (indigenous and non-Māori children in New Zealand. Methods Standard quantitative epidemiological methods and “cost of illness” methodology were employed, within a Kaupapa Māori theoretical framework. Data were obtained from national data collections held by the New Zealand Health Information Service and other health sector agencies. Results Preliminary estimates suggest child health inequities between Māori and non-Māori in New Zealand are cost-saving to the health sector. However the societal costs are significant. A conservative “base case” scenario estimate is over $NZ62 million per year, while alternative costing methods yield larger costs of nearly $NZ200 million per annum. The total cost estimate is highly sensitive to the costing method used and Value of Statistical Life applied, as the cost of potentially avoidable deaths of Māori children is the major contributor to this estimate. Conclusions This preliminary study suggests that health sector spending is skewed towards non-Māori children despite evidence of greater Māori need. Persistent child health inequities result in significant societal economic costs. Eliminating child health inequities, particularly in primary care access, could result in significant economic benefits for New Zealand. However, there are conceptual, ethical and methodological challenges in estimating the economic cost of child health inequities. Re-thinking of traditional economic frameworks and development of more appropriate methodologies is required.

  1. REVIEW OF METHODOLOGIES FOR COSTS CALCULATING OF RUMINANTS IN SLOVAKIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana KRUPOVÁ

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to synthesise and analyse the methodologies and the biological aspects of the costs calculation in ruminants in Slovakia. According to literature, the account classification of cost items is most often considered for construction of costing formula. The costs are mostly divided into fixed (costs independent from volume of herd’s production and variable ones (costs connected with improvement of breeding conditions. Cost for feeds and beddings, labour costs, other direct costs and depreciations were found as the most important cost items in ruminants. It can be assumed that including the depreciations into costs of the basic herd takes into consideration the real costs simultaneously invested into raising of young animals in the given period. Costs are calculated for the unit of the main and by-products and their classification is influenced mainly by the type of livestock and production system. In dairy cows is usually milk defined as the main product, and by- products are live born calf and manure. The base calculation unit is kilogram of milk (basic herd of cows and kilogram of gain and kilogram of live weight (young breeding cattle. In suckler cows is a live-born calf the main product and manure is the by-product. The costs are mostly calculated per suckler cow, live-born calf and per kilogram of live weight of weaned calf. Similar division of products into main and by-products is also in cost calculation for sheep categories. The difference is that clotted cheese is also considered as the main product of basic herd in dairy sheep and greasy wool as the by-products in all categories. Definition of the base calculation units in sheep categories followed the mentioned classification. The value of a by-product in cattle and sheep is usually set according to its quantity and intra- plant price of the by-product. In the calculation of the costs for sheep and cattle the “structural ewe” and “structural cow

  2. The application of cost behaviour and estimation in organisational ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on these findings, the paper recommends among others the need for the regular training of the management accountant in the modern methods of cost estimation, the need for accurate keeping of records of transactions and for long term forecasting of cost, management should rely on quantitative factors and ...

  3. COSTMODL - AN AUTOMATED SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COST ESTIMATION TOOL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, G. B.

    1994-01-01

    The cost of developing computer software consumes an increasing portion of many organizations' budgets. As this trend continues, the capability to estimate the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product becomes increasingly important. COSTMODL is an automated software development estimation tool which fulfills this need. Assimilating COSTMODL to any organization's particular environment can yield significant reduction in the risk of cost overruns and failed projects. This user-customization capability is unmatched by any other available estimation tool. COSTMODL accepts a description of a software product to be developed and computes estimates of the effort required to produce it, the calendar schedule required, and the distribution of effort and staffing as a function of the defined set of development life-cycle phases. This is accomplished by the five cost estimation algorithms incorporated into COSTMODL: the NASA-developed KISS model; the Basic, Intermediate, and Ada COCOMO models; and the Incremental Development model. This choice affords the user the ability to handle project complexities ranging from small, relatively simple projects to very large projects. Unique to COSTMODL is the ability to redefine the life-cycle phases of development and the capability to display a graphic representation of the optimum organizational structure required to develop the subject project, along with required staffing levels and skills. The program is menu-driven and mouse sensitive with an extensive context-sensitive help system that makes it possible for a new user to easily install and operate the program and to learn the fundamentals of cost estimation without having prior training or separate documentation. The implementation of these functions, along with the customization feature, into one program makes COSTMODL unique within the industry. COSTMODL was written for IBM PC compatibles, and it requires Turbo Pascal 5.0 or later and Turbo

  4. Health Care Analysis for the MCRMC Insurance Cost Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    incentive to reduce utilization  Subsidy to leave TRICARE and use other private health insurance  Increases in TRICARE premiums and co-pays  This...analysis develops the estimated cost of providing health care through a premium -based insurance model consistent with an employer-sponsored benefit...State  Income  Plan premium data  Contract cost data 22 May 2015 9 Agenda  Overview  Background  Data  Insurance Cost Estimate Methodology

  5. Estimating Power Outage Cost based on a Survey for Industrial Customers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Yoshikuni; Matsuhashi, Ryuji

    A survey was conducted on power outage cost for industrial customers. 5139 factories, which are designated energy management factories in Japan, answered their power consumption and the loss of production value due to the power outage in an hour in summer weekday. The median of unit cost of power outage of whole sectors is estimated as 672 yen/kWh. The sector of services for amusement and hobbies and the sector of manufacture of information and communication electronics equipment relatively have higher unit cost of power outage. Direct damage cost from power outage in whole sectors reaches 77 billion yen. Then utilizing input-output analysis, we estimated indirect damage cost that is caused by the repercussion of production halt. Indirect damage cost in whole sectors reaches 91 billion yen. The sector of wholesale and retail trade has the largest direct damage cost. The sector of manufacture of transportation equipment has the largest indirect damage cost.

  6. A regressive methodology for estimating missing data in rainfall daily time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barca, E.; Passarella, G.

    2009-04-01

    The "presence" of gaps in environmental data time series represents a very common, but extremely critical problem, since it can produce biased results (Rubin, 1976). Missing data plagues almost all surveys. The problem is how to deal with missing data once it has been deemed impossible to recover the actual missing values. Apart from the amount of missing data, another issue which plays an important role in the choice of any recovery approach is the evaluation of "missingness" mechanisms. When data missing is conditioned by some other variable observed in the data set (Schafer, 1997) the mechanism is called MAR (Missing at Random). Otherwise, when the missingness mechanism depends on the actual value of the missing data, it is called NCAR (Not Missing at Random). This last is the most difficult condition to model. In the last decade interest arose in the estimation of missing data by using regression (single imputation). More recently multiple imputation has become also available, which returns a distribution of estimated values (Scheffer, 2002). In this paper an automatic methodology for estimating missing data is presented. In practice, given a gauging station affected by missing data (target station), the methodology checks the randomness of the missing data and classifies the "similarity" between the target station and the other gauging stations spread over the study area. Among different methods useful for defining the similarity degree, whose effectiveness strongly depends on the data distribution, the Spearman correlation coefficient was chosen. Once defined the similarity matrix, a suitable, nonparametric, univariate, and regressive method was applied in order to estimate missing data in the target station: the Theil method (Theil, 1950). Even though the methodology revealed to be rather reliable an improvement of the missing data estimation can be achieved by a generalization. A first possible improvement consists in extending the univariate technique to

  7. Cost Estimating in DoD: Current Status, Trends, and What the Future Holds

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nussbaum, Daniel A

    2005-01-01

    (1) Current Status: Baseline analysis of current cost estimating community, including which organizations are responsible for developing and reviewing cost estimates, how many personnel there are, what...

  8. The Role of Organisational Phenomena in Software Cost Estimation: A Case Study of Supporting and Hindering Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurka Rahikkala

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the fact that many researchers and practitioners agree that organisational issues are equally important as technical issues from the software cost estimation (SCE success point of view, most of the research focus has been put on the development of methods, whereas organisational factors have received surprisingly little academic scrutiny. This study aims to identify organisational factors that either support or hinder meaningful SCE, identifying their impact on estimation success. Top management’s role is specifically addressed. The study takes a qualitative and explorative case study based approach. In total, 18 semi-structured interviews aided the study of three projects in three organisations. Hence, the transferability of the results is limited. The results suggest that the role of the top management is important in creating prerequisites for meaningful estimation, but their day-to-day participation is not required for successful estimation. Top management may also induce undesired distortion in estimation. Estimation maturity and estimation success seem to have an interrelationship with software process maturity, but there seem to be no significant individual organisational factors, which alone would make estimation successful. Our results validate several distortions and biases reported in the previous studies, and show the SCE research focus has remained on methodologies and technical issues.

  9. Social costs of road crashes: An international analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnen, Wim; Stipdonk, Henk

    2016-09-01

    This paper provides an international overview of the most recent estimates of the social costs of road crashes: total costs, value per casualty and breakdown in cost components. The analysis is based on publications about the national costs of road crashes of 17 countries, of which ten high income countries (HICs) and seven low and middle income countries (LMICs). Costs are expressed as a proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP). Differences between countries are described and explained. These are partly a consequence of differences in the road safety level, but there are also methodological explanations. Countries may or may not correct for underreporting of road crashes, they may or may not use the internationally recommended willingness to pay (WTP)-method for estimating human costs, and there are methodological differences regarding the calculation of some other cost components. The analysis shows that the social costs of road crashes in HICs range from 0.5% to 6.0% of the GDP with an average of 2.7%. Excluding countries that do not use a WTP- method for estimating human costs and countries that do not correct for underreporting, results in average costs of 3.3% of GDP. For LMICs that do correct for underreporting the share in GDP ranges from 1.1% to 2.9%. However, none of the LMICs included has performed a WTP study of the human costs. A major part of the costs is related to injuries: an average share of 50% for both HICs and LMICs. The average share of fatalities in the costs is 23% and 30% respectively. Prevention of injuries is thus important to bring down the socio-economic burden of road crashes. The paper shows that there are methodological differences between countries regarding cost components that are taken into account and regarding the methods used to estimate specific cost components. In order to be able to make sound comparisons of the costs of road crashes across countries, (further) harmonization of cost studies is recommended. This can be

  10. ESTIMATING THE COST OF AGRICULTURAL MORBIDITY IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Nathan M; Scott, Erika E; Krupa, Nicole; Jenkins, Paul L

    2018-01-29

    This article provides an estimate for the economic costs of agricultural injuries sustained in the states of Maine and New Hampshire between the years 2008 and 2010. The authors used a novel dataset of 562 agriculturally related occupational injuries, and cost estimates were generated using the CDC's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS). Individual cases from the dataset that did not match the query options for WISQARS were excluded. Of the 562 agricultural injuries identified in the dataset, 361 met the WISQARS criteria. The remaining 201 cases were judged to be incompatible with the WISQARS query criteria. Significant differences (p 0.0001) were found between the median costs of eight types of injury. Amputations (median = $70,077) and fractures (median = $13,365) were found to be the most expensive types of injury. The total cost of the 361 injuries for which estimates were available was $6,342,270. Injuries that reportedly involved machinery were found to be more expensive than injuries caused by animals. This article highlights the difference in the total cost of injury between types of injuries and demonstrates that agricultural injuries were a significant economic burden for Maine and New Hampshire for the years 2008-2010. These data can be used to direct future preventive efforts. Finally, this article suggests that WISQARS is a powerful tool for estimating injury costs without requiring access to treatment or billing records. Copyright© by the American Society of Agricultural Engineers.

  11. Australian methodology for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks: Agriculture: Workbook for livestock: Workbook 6.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bureau of Resource Sciences, Canberra, ACT (Australia)

    1994-12-31

    This workbook details a methodology for estimating methane emissions from Australian livestock. The workbook is designed to be consistent with international guidelines and takes into account special Australian conditions. While regarded as a significant source of anthropogenic methane emissions, it is also acknowledged in this document that livestock do not provide sinks for methane or any other greenhouse gas. Methane can originate from both fermentation processes in the digestive tracts of all livestock and from manure under certain management conditions. Methane emissions were estimated from beef cattle, dairy cattle, sheep, pigs, poultry, goats, horses, deer, buffalo, camels, emus and ostriches, alpacas and donkeys and mules. Two methodologies were used to estimate emissions. One is the standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 methodology that is needed to provide inter-country comparisons of emissions. The other has been developed by the Inventory Methodology Working Group. It represents the best current Australian method for estimating greenhouse gas emissions from Australian livestock. (author). 6 tabs., 22 refs.

  12. A parametric cost model for estimating operating and support costs of US Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships

    OpenAIRE

    Brandt, James M.

    1999-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of affordability. Because there is no standardized method for calculating reliable estimates of operating and support (O&S) costs (the principal component of total ownership cost), this thesis formulates a parametric cost mo...

  13. Treatment Cost Analysis Tool (TCAT) for estimating costs of outpatient treatment services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Patrick M; Broome, Kirk M; Beaston-Blaakman, Aaron; Knight, Danica K; Horgan, Constance M; Shepard, Donald S

    2009-02-01

    A Microsoft Excel-based workbook designed for research analysts to use in a national study was retooled for treatment program directors and financial officers to allocate, analyze, and estimate outpatient treatment costs in the U.S. This instrument can also be used as a planning and management tool to optimize resources and forecast the impact of future changes in staffing, client flow, program design, and other resources. The Treatment Cost Analysis Tool (TCAT) automatically provides feedback and generates summaries and charts using comparative data from a national sample of non-methadone outpatient providers. TCAT is being used by program staff to capture and allocate both economic and accounting costs, and outpatient service costs are reported for a sample of 70 programs. Costs for an episode of treatment in regular, intensive, and mixed types of outpatient treatment were $882, $1310, and $1381 respectively (based on 20% trimmed means and 2006 dollars). An hour of counseling cost $64 in regular, $85 intensive, and $86 mixed. Group counseling hourly costs per client were $8, $11, and $10 respectively for regular, intensive, and mixed. Future directions include use of a web-based interview version, much like some of the commercially available tax preparation software tools, and extensions for use in other modalities of treatment.

  14. A Methodology to Integrate Security and Cost-effectiveness in ATM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Matarese

    2014-01-01

    prioritizing the threats and proposing cost-effective countermeasures for the weaknesses found. ATM security is concerned with securing ATM assets in order to prevent threats and limit their effects on the overall aviation network. This effect limitation can be achieved by removing the vulnerability from the system and/or increasing the tolerance in case of component failures due to attacks. The security risk assessment methodology proposed is based on what is currently being done by the industry (the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO and the International Standard Organization (ISO, etc..

  15. State estimation and control for low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles

    CERN Document Server

    Hajiyev, Chingiz; Yenal Vural, Sıtkı

    2015-01-01

    This book discusses state estimation and control procedures for a low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The authors consider the use of robust adaptive Kalman filter algorithms and demonstrate their advantages over the optimal Kalman filter in the context of the difficult and varied environments in which UAVs may be employed. Fault detection and isolation (FDI) and data fusion for UAV air-data systems are also investigated, and control algorithms, including the classical, optimal, and fuzzy controllers, are given for the UAV. The performance of different control methods is investigated and the results compared. State Estimation and Control of Low-Cost Unmanned Aerial Vehicles covers all the important issues for designing a guidance, navigation and control (GNC) system of a low-cost UAV. It proposes significant new approaches that can be exploited by GNC system designers in the future and also reviews the current literature. The state estimation, control and FDI methods are illustrated by examples and MATLAB...

  16. Aircraft ground damage and the use of predictive models to estimate costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kromphardt, Benjamin D.

    Aircraft are frequently involved in ground damage incidents, and repair costs are often accepted as part of doing business. The Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) estimates ground damage to cost operators $5-10 billion annually. Incident reports, documents from manufacturers or regulatory agencies, and other resources were examined to better understand the problem of ground damage in aviation. Major contributing factors were explained, and two versions of a computer-based model were developed to project costs and show what is possible. One objective was to determine if the models could match the FSF's estimate. Another objective was to better understand cost savings that could be realized by efforts to further mitigate the occurrence of ground incidents. Model effectiveness was limited by access to official data, and assumptions were used if data was not available. However, the models were determined to sufficiently estimate the costs of ground incidents.

  17. A REVIEW OF ESTIMATION OF SOFTWARE PRODUCTS DEVELOPMENT COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edin Osmanbegović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modern business and management of business processes, the standardization of procedures allows the creation of added value, increasing competitiveness and success in the business of an organization. Evaluation of the budget for software development is crucial to the success of an IT project, because the inability to make a realistic assessment leads to inadequate project plans, customer dissatisfaction, poor quality of software products, and reduced profits. In order to minimize such situations, making accurate and reliable software cost estimation should be carried out at all stages of the project life cycle. Although hundreds of research articles focusing on the application of different methods of budget estimates of the software product have been published so far, there is no comprehensive review of the current situation or review of research trends in the budget estimates of the software product. This paper aims to create a framework for estimation of costs of development of software products by providing an overview of the most influential researchers, the most influential articles published in the WoS database, the most used keywords for searching the articles, as well as a review of the estimation techniques used in budget estimates of the software product.

  18. Estimating the costs of induced abortion in Uganda: A model-based analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The demand for induced abortions in Uganda is high despite legal and moral proscriptions. Abortion seekers usually go to illegal, hidden clinics where procedures are performed in unhygienic environments by under-trained practitioners. These abortions, which are usually unsafe, lead to a high rate of severe complications and use of substantial, scarce healthcare resources. This study was performed to estimate the costs associated with induced abortions in Uganda. Methods A decision tree was developed to represent the consequences of induced abortion and estimate the costs of an average case. Data were obtained from a primary chart abstraction study, an on-going prospective study, and the published literature. Societal costs, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect (productivity) costs, costs to patients, and costs to the government were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty. Results The average societal cost per induced abortion (95% credibility range) was $177 ($140-$223). This is equivalent to $64 million in annual national costs. Of this, the average direct medical cost was $65 ($49-86) and the average direct non-medical cost was $19 ($16-$23). The average indirect cost was $92 ($57-$139). Patients incurred $62 ($46-$83) on average while government incurred $14 ($10-$20) on average. Conclusion Induced abortions are associated with substantial costs in Uganda and patients incur the bulk of the healthcare costs. This reinforces the case made by other researchers--that efforts by the government to reduce unsafe abortions by increasing contraceptive coverage or providing safe, legal abortions are critical. PMID:22145859

  19. Estimating healthcare costs of acute gastroenteritis and human campylobacteriosis in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmutz, C; Mäusezahl, D; Bless, P J; Hatz, C; Schwenkglenks, M; Urbinello, D

    2017-03-01

    Rising numbers of campylobacteriosis case notifications in Switzerland resulted in an increased attention to acute gastroenteritis (AG) in general. Patients with a laboratory-confirmed Campylobacter infection perceive their disease as severe and around 15% of these patients are hospitalized. This study aimed at estimating healthcare costs due to AG and campylobacteriosis in Switzerland. We used official health statistics, data from different studies and expert opinion for estimating individual treatment costs for patients with different illness severity and for extrapolating overall costs due to AG and campylobacteriosis. We estimated that total Swiss healthcare costs resulting from these diseases amount to €29-45 million annually. Data suggest that patients with AG consulting a physician without a stool diagnostic test account for €9·0-24·2 million, patients with a negative stool test result for Campylobacter spp. for €12·3 million, patients testing positive for Campylobacter spp. for €1·8 million and hospitalized campylobacteriosis patients for €6·5 million/year. Healthcare costs of campylobacteriosis are high and most likely increasing in Switzerland considering that campylobacteriosis case notifications steadily increased in the past decade. Costs and potential cost savings for the healthcare system should be considered when designing sectorial and cross-sectorial interventions to reduce the burden of human campylobacteriosis in Switzerland.

  20. Patient-physician discussions about costs: definitions and impact on cost conversation incidence estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Wynn G; Hesson, Ashley; Davis, J Kelly; Kirby, Christine; Williamson, Lillie D; Barnett, Jamison A; Ubel, Peter A

    2016-03-31

    Nearly one in three Americans are financially burdened by their medical expenses. To mitigate financial distress, experts recommend routine physician-patient cost conversations. However, the content and incidence of these conversations are unclear, and rigorous definitions are lacking. We sought to develop a novel set of cost conversation definitions, and determine the impact of definitional variation on cost conversation incidence in three clinical settings. Retrospective, mixed-methods analysis of transcribed dialogue from 1,755 outpatient encounters for routine clinical management of breast cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, and depression, occurring between 2010-2014. We developed cost conversation definitions using summative content analysis. Transcripts were evaluated independently by at least two members of our multi-disciplinary team to determine cost conversation incidence using each definition. Incidence estimates were compared using Pearson's Chi-Square Tests. Three cost conversation definitions emerged from our analysis: (a) Out-of-Pocket (OoP) Cost--discussion of the patient's OoP costs for a healthcare service; (b) Cost/Coverage--discussion of the patient's OoP costs or insurance coverage; (c) Cost of Illness- discussion of financial costs or insurance coverage related to health or healthcare. These definitions were hierarchical; OoP Cost was a subset of Cost/Coverage, which was a subset of Cost of Illness. In each clinical setting, we observed significant variation in the incidence of cost conversations when using different definitions; breast oncology: 16, 22, 24% of clinic visits contained cost conversation (OOP Cost, Cost/Coverage, Cost of Illness, respectively; P cost conversation varied significantly depending on the definition used. Our findings and proposed definitions may assist in retrospective interpretation and prospective design of investigations on this topic.

  1. Life cycle cost estimation and systems analysis of Waste Management Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.; Feizollahi, F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents general conclusions from application of a system cost analysis method developed by the United States Department of Energy (DOE), Waste Management Division (WM), Waste Management Facilities Costs Information (WMFCI) program. The WMFCI method has been used to assess the DOE complex-wide management of radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes. The Idaho Engineering Laboratory, along with its subcontractor Morrison Knudsen Corporation, has been responsible for developing and applying the WMFCI cost analysis method. The cost analyses are based on system planning level life-cycle costs. The costs for life-cycle waste management activities estimated by WMFCI range from bench-scale testing and developmental work needed to design and construct a facility, facility permitting and startup, operation and maintenance, to the final decontamination, decommissioning, and closure of the facility. For DOE complex-wide assessments, cost estimates have been developed at the treatment, storage, and disposal module level and rolled up for each DOE installation. Discussions include conclusions reached by studies covering complex-wide consolidation of treatment, storage, and disposal facilities, system cost modeling, system costs sensitivity, system cost optimization, and the integration of WM waste with the environmental restoration and decontamination and decommissioning secondary wastes

  2. A Descriptive Evaluation of Automated Software Cost-Estimation Models,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-10-01

    Version 1.03D) * PCOC (Version 7.01) - PRICE S • SLIM (Version 1.1) • SoftCost (Version 5. 1) * SPQR /20 (Version 1. 1) - WICOMO (Version 1.3) These...produce detailed GANTT and PERT charts. SPQR /20 is based on a cost model developed at ITT. In addition to cost, schedule, and staffing estimates, it...cases and test runs required, and the effectiveness of pre-test and test activities. SPQR /20 also predicts enhancement and maintenance activities. C

  3. Estimating the Cost of Youth Disengagement in New Zealand

    OpenAIRE

    Gail Pacheco; Jessica Dye

    2013-01-01

    Youth exclusion, disengagement, and overall underutilisation in the labour market has short term costs to the economy, as well as long term impacts on society. In this research we project the loss to productivity, measured in foregone wages, and the expected cost to public finances for NZ and Auckland youth aged 15-24 not in employment, education, or training (collectively known as NEET). We estimate the expected per capita cost of each NEET youth in NZ is approximately $26,847 over the next ...

  4. A Review of the Decommissioning Plan and Cost Estimate for the Studsvik Rock Facility (AM) for the Storage of Low and Intermediate Level Wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varley, Geoff

    2004-03-01

    cost may be high. This conclusion is based on correlation analysis of data in other Swedish cost estimates for the R2 research reactor and for Aagesta, compared with the AM cost estimate. It may be helpful to perform a broader analysis of other AB SVAFO decommissioning cost estimates and actual decommissioning projects, to see if there is any consistent correlation between planning resource needs and overall project cost, or indeed if an alternative, nonlinear correlation might apply. The assumptions made for worker utilisation and dismantling efficiency may or may not be appropriate for the AM facility estimate. However, the AB SVAFO report provides insufficient information to facilitate further comment on the reasonableness of the assumptions and related methodology. Dismantling costs were based on information provided by a commercial company, in a non-competitive situation. On one hand there might have been a tendency for the information to introduce conservatism into the AM cost estimate. On the other hand it could be either high or low in terms of estimated resources needed. In any event, the AM cost estimate report is unclear on cleaning and decontamination aspects, not least because statements appear to be inconsistent. In addition, the whole concept of cleaning and decontamination prior to activity mapping might be considered to be an inappropriate approach. If, as is expected, the entire facility will not be contaminated, it is reasonable to ask why the estimate would address an extensive program of cleaning and decontamination. Notwithstanding a number of inadequacies of the AM cost estimate report, the general impression is that the indicated financial requirements probably are sufficient and might even be overstated (conservative). This assertion is predicated on the basis that the basic methodologies applied are reasonable, which remains to be demonstrated. The report is ambiguous in its presentation, which makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions in

  5. Erosion processes by water in agricultural landscapes: a low-cost methodology for post-event analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosdocimi, Massimo; Calligaro, Simone; Sofia, Giulia; Tarolli, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    Throughout the world, agricultural landscapes assume a great importance, especially for supplying food and a livelihood. Among the land degradation phenomena, erosion processes caused by water are those that may most affect the benefits provided by agricultural lands and endanger people who work and live there. In particular, erosion processes that affect the banks of agricultural channels may cause the bank failure and represent, in this way, a severe threat to floodplain inhabitants and agricultural crops. Similarly, rills and gullies are critical soil erosion processes as well, because they bear upon the productivity of a farm and represent a cost that growers have to deal with. To estimate quantitatively soil losses due to bank erosion and rills processes, area based measurements of surface changes are necessary but, sometimes, they may be difficult to realize. In fact, surface changes due to short-term events have to be represented with fine resolution and their monitoring may entail too much money and time. The main objective of this work is to show the effectiveness of a user-friendly and low-cost technique that may even rely on smart-phones, for the post-event analyses of i) bank erosion affecting agricultural channels, and ii) rill processes occurring on an agricultural plot. Two case studies were selected and located in the Veneto floodplain (northeast Italy) and Marche countryside (central Italy), respectively. The work is based on high-resolution topographic data obtained by the emerging, low-cost photogrammetric method named Structure-from-Motion (SfM). Extensive photosets of the case studies were obtained using both standalone reflex digital cameras and smart-phone built-in cameras. Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) derived from SfM revealed to be effective to estimate quantitatively erosion volumes and, in the case of the bank eroded, deposited materials as well. SfM applied to pictures taken by smartphones is useful for the analysis of the topography

  6. Methods for cost estimation in software project management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briciu, C. V.; Filip, I.; Indries, I. I.

    2016-02-01

    The speed in which the processes used in software development field have changed makes it very difficult the task of forecasting the overall costs for a software project. By many researchers, this task has been considered unachievable, but there is a group of scientist for which this task can be solved using the already known mathematical methods (e.g. multiple linear regressions) and the new techniques as genetic programming and neural networks. The paper presents a solution for building a model for the cost estimation models in the software project management using genetic algorithms starting from the PROMISE datasets related COCOMO 81 model. In the first part of the paper, a summary of the major achievements in the research area of finding a model for estimating the overall project costs is presented together with the description of the existing software development process models. In the last part, a basic proposal of a mathematical model of a genetic programming is proposed including here the description of the chosen fitness function and chromosome representation. The perspective of model described it linked with the current reality of the software development considering as basis the software product life cycle and the current challenges and innovations in the software development area. Based on the author's experiences and the analysis of the existing models and product lifecycle it was concluded that estimation models should be adapted with the new technologies and emerging systems and they depend largely by the chosen software development method.

  7. The quality of reporting methods and results of cost-effectiveness analyses in Spain: a methodological systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalá-López, Ferrán; Ridao, Manuel; Alonso-Arroyo, Adolfo; García-Altés, Anna; Cameron, Chris; González-Bermejo, Diana; Aleixandre-Benavent, Rafael; Bernal-Delgado, Enrique; Peiró, Salvador; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Hutton, Brian

    2016-01-07

    Cost-effectiveness analysis has been recognized as an important tool to determine the efficiency of healthcare interventions and services. There is a need for evaluating the reporting of methods and results of cost-effectiveness analyses and establishing their validity. We describe and examine reporting characteristics of methods and results of cost-effectiveness analyses conducted in Spain during more than two decades. A methodological systematic review was conducted with the information obtained through an updated literature review in PubMed and complementary databases (e.g. Scopus, ISI Web of Science, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) databases from Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD), Índice Médico Español (IME) Índice Bibliográfico Español en Ciencias de la Salud (IBECS)). We identified cost-effectiveness analyses conducted in Spain that used quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as outcome measures (period 1989-December 2014). Two reviewers independently extracted the data from each paper. The data were analysed descriptively. In total, 223 studies were included. Very few studies (10; 4.5 %) reported working from a protocol. Most studies (200; 89.7 %) were simulation models and included a median of 1000 patients. Only 105 (47.1 %) studies presented an adequate description of the characteristics of the target population. Most study interventions were categorized as therapeutic (189; 84.8 %) and nearly half (111; 49.8 %) considered an active alternative as the comparator. Effectiveness of data was derived from a single study in 87 (39.0 %) reports, and only few (40; 17.9 %) used evidence synthesis-based estimates. Few studies (42; 18.8 %) reported a full description of methods for QALY calculation. The majority of the studies (147; 65.9 %) reported that the study intervention produced "more costs and more QALYs" than the comparator. Most studies (200; 89.7 %) reported favourable

  8. Methodologies for estimating toxicity of shoreline cleaning agents in the field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, J.R.Jr.; Stransky, B.C.; Schwartz, M.J.; Snyder, B.J.; Lees, D.C.; Michel, J.; Reilly, T.J.

    1996-01-01

    Four methodologies that could be used in a portable kit to estimate quantitative and qualitative information regarding the toxicity of oil spill cleaning agents, were evaluated. Onshore cleaning agents (SCAs) are meant to enhance the removal of treated oil from shoreline surfaces, and should not increase adverse impacts to organisms in a treated area. Tests, therefore, should be performed with resident organisms likely to be impacted during the use of SCAs. The four methodologies were Microtox T M, fertilization success for echinoderm eggs, byssal thread attachment in mussels, and righting and water-escaping ability in periwinkle snails. Site specific variations in physical and chemical properties of the oil and SCAs were considered. Results were provided, showing all combinations of oils and SCAs. Evaluation showed that all four methodologies provided sufficient information to assist a user in deciding whether or not the use of an SCA was warranted. 33 refs., 7 tabs., 11 figs

  9. Cost-effectiveness estimates for antenatal HIV testing in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rozenbaum, M. H.; Verweel, G.; Folkerts, D. K. F.; Dronkers, F.; van den Hoek, J. A. R.; Hartwig, N. G.; de Groot, R.; Postma, M. J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides an estimation of the lifetime health-care cost of HIV-infected children and an update of the cost-effectiveness of universal HIV-screening of pregnant women in Amsterdam (The Netherlands). During 2003-2005, we collected data concerning the prevalence of newly diagnosed

  10. Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically

  11. Cost estimation using ministerial regulation of public work no. 11/2013 in construction projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arumsari, Putri; Juliastuti; Khalifah Al'farisi, Muhammad

    2017-12-01

    One of the first tasks in starting a construction project is to estimate the total cost of building a project. In Indonesia there are several standards that are used to calculate the cost estimation of a project. One of the standards used in based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013. However in a construction project, contractor often has their own cost estimation based on their own calculation. This research aimed to compare the construction project total cost using calculation based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013 against the contractor’s calculation. Two projects were used as case study to compare the results. The projects were a 4 storey building located in Pantai Indah Kapuk area (West Jakarta) and a warehouse located in Sentul (West Java) which was built by 2 different contractors. The cost estimation from both contractors’ calculation were compared to the one based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013. It is found that there were differences between the two calculation around 1.80 % - 3.03% in total cost, in which the cost estimation based on Ministerial Regulation was higher than the contractors’ calculations.

  12. Direct, indirect and intangible costs of acute hand and wrist injuries: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Luke Steven; Sarkies, Mitchell; Brown, Ted; O'Brien, Lisa

    2016-12-01

    Injuries sustained to the hand and wrist are common, accounting for 20% of all emergency presentations. The economic burden of these injuries, comprised of direct (medical expenses incurred), indirect (value of lost productivity) and intangible costs, can be extensive and rise sharply with the increase of severity. This paper systematically reviews cost-of-illness studies and health economic evaluations of acute hand and wrist injuries with a particular focus on direct, indirect and intangible costs. It aims to provide economic cost estimates of burden and discuss the cost components used in international literature. A search of cost-of-illness studies and health economic evaluations of acute hand and wrist injuries in various databases was conducted. Data extracted for each included study were: design, population, intervention, and estimates and measurement methodologies of direct, indirect and intangible costs. Reported costs were converted into US-dollars using historical exchange rates and then adjusted into 2015 US-dollars using an inflation calculator RESULTS: The search yielded 764 studies, of which 21 met the inclusion criteria. Twelve studies were cost-of-illness studies, and seven were health economic evaluations. The methodology used to derive direct, indirect and intangible costs differed markedly across all studies. Indirect costs represented a large portion of total cost in both cost-of-illness studies [64.5% (IQR 50.75-88.25)] and health economic evaluations [68% (IQR 49.25-73.5)]. The median total cost per case of all injury types was US$6951 (IQR $3357-$22,274) for cost-of-illness studies and US$8297 (IQR $3858-$33,939) for health economic evaluations. Few studies reported intangible cost data associated with acute hand and wrist injuries. Several studies have attempted to estimate the direct, indirect and intangible costs associated with acute hand and wrist injuries in various countries using heterogeneous methodologies. Estimates of the economic

  13. The NLC Software Requirements Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shoaee, Hamid

    2002-08-20

    We describe the software requirements and development methodology developed for the NLC control system. Given the longevity of that project, and the likely geographical distribution of the collaborating engineers, the planned requirements management process is somewhat more formal than the norm in high energy physics projects. The short term goals of the requirements process are to accurately estimate costs, to decompose the problem, and to determine likely technologies. The long term goal is to enable a smooth transition from high level functional requirements to specific subsystem and component requirements for individual programmers, and to support distributed development. The methodology covers both ends of that life cycle. It covers both the analytical and documentary tools for software engineering, and project management support. This paper introduces the methodology, which is fully described in [1].

  14. The relationship between cost estimates reliability and BIM adoption: SEM analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, N. A. A.; Idris, N. H.; Ramli, H.; Rooshdi, R. R. Raja Muhammad; Sahamir, S. R.

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents the usage of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach in analysing the effects of Building Information Modelling (BIM) technology adoption in improving the reliability of cost estimates. Based on the questionnaire survey results, SEM analysis using SPSS-AMOS application examined the relationships between BIM-improved information and cost estimates reliability factors, leading to BIM technology adoption. Six hypotheses were established prior to SEM analysis employing two types of SEM models, namely the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) model and full structural model. The SEM models were then validated through the assessment on their uni-dimensionality, validity, reliability, and fitness index, in line with the hypotheses tested. The final SEM model fit measures are: P-value=0.000, RMSEA=0.0790.90, TLI=0.956>0.90, NFI=0.935>0.90 and ChiSq/df=2.259; indicating that the overall index values achieved the required level of model fitness. The model supports all the hypotheses evaluated, confirming that all relationship exists amongst the constructs are positive and significant. Ultimately, the analysis verified that most of the respondents foresee better understanding of project input information through BIM visualization, its reliable database and coordinated data, in developing more reliable cost estimates. They also perceive to accelerate their cost estimating task through BIM adoption.

  15. First estimates of the potential cost and cost saving of protecting childhood hearing from damage caused by congenital CMV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Eleri J; Gray, Joanne; Luck, Suzanne; Atkinson, Claire; Embleton, Nicholas D; Kadambari, Seilesh; Davis, Adrian; Griffiths, Paul; Sharland, Mike; Berrington, Janet E; Clark, Julia E

    2015-11-01

    Congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) is an important cause of childhood deafness, which is modifiable if diagnosed within the first month of life. Targeted screening of infants who do not pass their newborn hearing screening tests in England is a feasible approach to identify and treat cases to improve hearing outcome. To conduct a cost analysis of targeted screening and subsequent treatment for cCMV-related sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) in an, otherwise, asymptomatic infant, from the perspective of the UK National Health Service (NHS). Using data from the newborn hearing screening programme (NHSP) in England and a recent study of targeted screening for cCMV using salivary swabs within the NHSP, we estimate the cost (in UK pounds (£)) to the NHS. The cost of screening (time, swabs and PCR), assessing, treating and following up cases is calculated. The cost per case of preventing hearing deterioration secondary to cCMV with targeted screening is calculated. The cost of identifying, assessing and treating a case of cCMV-related SNHL through targeted cCMV screening is estimated to be £6683. The cost of improving hearing outcome for an infant with cCMV-related SNHL through targeted screening and treatment is estimated at £14 202. The costs of targeted screening for cCMV using salivary swabs integrated within NHSP resulted in an estimate of cost per case that compares favourably with other screening programmes. This could be used in future studies to estimate the full economic value in terms of incremental costs and incremental health benefits. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs

  17. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

  18. Correlações para estimativas de custos na remoção de ácido sulfídrico de biogás = Correlations for cost estimates in the sulfidric acid removal from biogas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laercio Mantovani Frare

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available As estimativas de custos durante os estudos para a implementação de um novo processo químico é uma das fases críticas que determinam se o empreendimento será viável ou não. Neste trabalho foi desenvolvida uma metodologia capaz de estimar os custos e investimentos envolvidos em um processo de remoção de ácido sulfídrico de biogás. Ametodologia aplicada utilizou uma estimativa de custos fundamentada em equipamentos nacionais e nas correlações propostas por Guthrie (1969, Turton et al. (2003 e Perlingeiro (2005. Esta permite avaliar, de maneira rápida e precisa, diferentes configurações deequipamentos durante a etapa de projeto do processo, determinando assim o custo final do metro cúbico de biogás purificado.Cost estimates during studies in order to implement a new chemical process are a critical stage that determines whether the process will be viable or not. This study developed a methodology to estimate the costs and investments necessary in the process of removing hydrogen sulfide from biogas. The applied methodology used cost estimatesbased on costs of national equipments and correlations proposed by Guthrie (1969, Turton et al. (2003 and Perlingeiro (2005. The methodology allowed rapid and precise evaluation, different configuration of equipments for the process project, thus establishing the cost of cubic meter of purified biogas.

  19. Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoonseok Shin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.

  20. Implementation of the ANNs ensembles in macro-BIM cost estimates of buildings' floor structural frames

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juszczyk, Michał

    2018-04-01

    This paper reports some results of the studies on the use of artificial intelligence tools for the purposes of cost estimation based on building information models. A problem of the cost estimates based on the building information models on a macro level supported by the ensembles of artificial neural networks is concisely discussed. In the course of the research a regression model has been built for the purposes of cost estimation of buildings' floor structural frames, as higher level elements. Building information models are supposed to serve as a repository of data used for the purposes of cost estimation. The core of the model is the ensemble of neural networks. The developed model allows the prediction of cost estimates with satisfactory accuracy.