Establishing a cost model when estimating product cost in early design phases

OpenAIRE

Jeppsson, Johanna; Sjöberg, Jessica

2017-01-01

About 75% of the total product cost is determined in the early design phase, which means that the possibilities to affect costs are relatively small when the design phase is completed. For companies, it is therefore vital to conduct reliable cost estimates in the early design phase, when selecting between different design choices. When conducting a cost estimate there are many uncertainties. The aim with this study is therefore to explore how uncertainties regarding product cost can be consid...

Cost-estimating for commercial digital printing

Science.gov (United States)

Keif, Malcolm G.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study is to document current cost-estimating practices used in commercial digital printing. A research study was conducted to determine the use of cost-estimating in commercial digital printing companies. This study answers the questions: 1) What methods are currently being used to estimate digital printing? 2) What is the relationship between estimating and pricing digital printing? 3) To what extent, if at all, do digital printers use full-absorption, all-inclusive hourly rates for estimating? Three different digital printing models were identified: 1) Traditional print providers, who supplement their offset presswork with digital printing for short-run color and versioned commercial print; 2) "Low-touch" print providers, who leverage the power of the Internet to streamline business transactions with digital storefronts; 3) Marketing solutions providers, who see printing less as a discrete manufacturing process and more as a component of a complete marketing campaign. Each model approaches estimating differently. Understanding and predicting costs can be extremely beneficial. Establishing a reliable system to estimate those costs can be somewhat challenging though. Unquestionably, cost-estimating digital printing will increase in relevance in the years ahead, as margins tighten and cost knowledge becomes increasingly more critical.

Outer planet probe cost estimates: First impressions

Science.gov (United States)

Niehoff, J.

1974-01-01

An examination was made of early estimates of outer planetary atmospheric probe cost by comparing the estimates with past planetary projects. Of particular interest is identification of project elements which are likely cost drivers for future probe missions. Data are divided into two parts: first, the description of a cost model developed by SAI for the Planetary Programs Office of NASA, and second, use of this model and its data base to evaluate estimates of probe costs. Several observations are offered in conclusion regarding the credibility of current estimates and specific areas of the outer planet probe concept most vulnerable to cost escalation.

Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

2003-01-01

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

A case study to estimate costs using Neural Networks and regression based models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadia Bhuiyan

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Bombardier Aerospace’s high performance aircrafts and services set the utmost standard for the Aerospace industry. A case study in collaboration with Bombardier Aerospace is conducted in order to estimate the target cost of a landing gear. More precisely, the study uses both parametric model and neural network models to estimate the cost of main landing gears, a major aircraft commodity. A comparative analysis between the parametric based model and those upon neural networks model will be considered in order to determine the most accurate method to predict the cost of a main landing gear. Several trials are presented for the design and use of the neural network model. The analysis for the case under study shows the flexibility in the design of the neural network model. Furthermore, the performance of the neural network model is deemed superior to the parametric models for this case study.

Advanced Composite Air Frame Life Cycle Cost Estimating

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-19

the ACCA based on the cost . This cost analysis takes into account the increased performance parameters of the new airframe structure. This research...20 Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft ( ACCA ) ..........................................................23 viii Cost Estimation...establishing the procurement strategies and life cycle cost (LCC) model cost estimations. The current LCC models do not take into account the potential cost

The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

Science.gov (United States)

Prinja, Shankar; Bahuguna, Pankaj; Pinto, Andrew D; Sharma, Atul; Bharaj, Gursimer; Kumar, Vishal; Tripathy, Jaya Prasad; Kaur, Manmeet; Kumar, Rajesh

2012-01-01

As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73) per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8%) of the GDP for universalizing health care services. The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

AN ENHANCED MODEL TO ESTIMATE EFFORT, PERFORMANCE AND COST OF THE SOFTWARE PROJECTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Pauline

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The Authors have proposed a model that first captures the fundamentals of software metrics in the phase 1 consisting of three primitive primary software engineering metrics; they are person-months (PM, function-points (FP, and lines of code (LOC. The phase 2 consists of the proposed function point which is obtained by grouping the adjustment factors to simplify the process of adjustment and to ensure more consistency in the adjustments. In the proposed method fuzzy logic is used for quantifying the quality of requirements and is added as one of the adjustment factor, thus a fuzzy based approach for the Enhanced General System Characteristics to Estimate Effort of the Software Projects using productivity has been obtained. The phase 3 takes the calculated function point from our work and is given as input to the static single variable model (i.e. to the Intermediate COCOMO and COCOMO II for cost estimation. The Authors have tailored the cost factors in intermediate COCOMO and both; cost and scale factors are tailored in COCOMO II to suite to the individual development environment, which is very important for the accuracy of the cost estimates. The software performance indicators are project duration, schedule predictability, requirements completion ratio and post-release defect density, are also measured for the software projects in my work. A comparative study for effort, performance measurement and cost estimation of the software project is done between the existing model and the authors proposed work. Thus our work analyzes the interaction¬al process through which the estimation tasks were collectively accomplished.

An examination of sources of sensitivity of consumer surplus estimates in travel cost models.

Science.gov (United States)

Blaine, Thomas W; Lichtkoppler, Frank R; Bader, Timothy J; Hartman, Travis J; Lucente, Joseph E

2015-03-15

We examine sensitivity of estimates of recreation demand using the Travel Cost Method (TCM) to four factors. Three of the four have been routinely and widely discussed in the TCM literature: a) Poisson verses negative binomial regression; b) application of Englin correction to account for endogenous stratification; c) truncation of the data set to eliminate outliers. A fourth issue we address has not been widely modeled: the potential effect on recreation demand of the interaction between income and travel cost. We provide a straightforward comparison of all four factors, analyzing the impact of each on regression parameters and consumer surplus estimates. Truncation has a modest effect on estimates obtained from the Poisson models but a radical effect on the estimates obtained by way of the negative binomial. Inclusion of an income-travel cost interaction term generally produces a more conservative but not a statistically significantly different estimate of consumer surplus in both Poisson and negative binomial models. It also generates broader confidence intervals. Application of truncation, the Englin correction and the income-travel cost interaction produced the most conservative estimates of consumer surplus and eliminated the statistical difference between the Poisson and the negative binomial. Use of the income-travel cost interaction term reveals that for visitors who face relatively low travel costs, the relationship between income and travel demand is negative, while it is positive for those who face high travel costs. This provides an explanation of the ambiguities on the findings regarding the role of income widely observed in the TCM literature. Our results suggest that policies that reduce access to publicly owned resources inordinately impact local low income recreationists and are contrary to environmental justice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shankar Prinja

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. METHODS: We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. RESULTS: We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73 per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8% of the GDP for universalizing health care services. CONCLUSION: The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

Estimated cost of overactive bladder in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Prasopsanti, Kriangsak; Santi-Ngamkun, Apirak; Pornprasit, Kanokwan

2007-11-01

To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of overactive bladder (OAB) in indigenous Thai people aged 18 years and over in the year 2005. Economically based models using diagnostic and treatment algorithms from clinical practice guidelines and current disease prevalence data were used to estimate direct and indirect costs of OAB. Prevalence and event probability estimates were obtained from the literature, national data sets, and expert opinion. Costs were estimated from a small survey using a cost questionnaire and from unit costs of King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. The annual cost of OAB in Thailand is estimated as 1.9 billion USD. It is estimated to consume 1.14% of national GDP The cost includes 0.33 billion USD for direct medical costs, 1.3 billion USD for direct, nonmedical costs and 0.29 billion USD for indirect costs of lost productivity. The largest costs category was direct treatment costs of comorbidities associated with OAB. Costs of OAB medication accountedfor 14% of the total costs ofOAB.

Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung Ki; Ko, Won Il; Nam, Hyoon; Kim, Chul Min; Chung, Yang Hon; Bang, Sung Sig

2017-01-01

This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation

Statistical model for forecasting uranium prices to estimate the nuclear fuel cycle cost

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sung Ki; Ko, Won Il; Nam, Hyoon [Nuclear Fuel Cycle Analysis, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Chul Min; Chung, Yang Hon; Bang, Sung Sig [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2017-08-15

This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.

Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning

Science.gov (United States)

Trivailo, O.; Sippel, M.; Şekercioğlu, Y. A.

2012-08-01

The primary purpose of this paper is to review currently existing cost estimation methods, models, tools and resources applicable to the space sector. While key space sector methods are outlined, a specific focus is placed on hardware cost estimation on a system level, particularly for early mission phases during which specifications and requirements are not yet crystallised, and information is limited. For the space industry, cost engineering within the systems engineering framework is an integral discipline. The cost of any space program now constitutes a stringent design criterion, which must be considered and carefully controlled during the entire program life cycle. A first step to any program budget is a representative cost estimate which usually hinges on a particular estimation approach, or methodology. Therefore appropriate selection of specific cost models, methods and tools is paramount, a difficult task given the highly variable nature, scope as well as scientific and technical requirements applicable to each program. Numerous methods, models and tools exist. However new ways are needed to address very early, pre-Phase 0 cost estimation during the initial program research and establishment phase when system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be established and defined. Due to their specificity, for vehicles such as reusable launchers with a manned capability, a lack of historical data implies that using either the classic heuristic approach such as parametric cost estimation based on underlying CERs, or the analogy approach, is therefore, by definition, limited. This review identifies prominent cost estimation models applied to the space sector, and their underlying cost driving parameters and factors. Strengths, weaknesses, and suitability to specific mission types and classes are also highlighted. Current approaches which strategically amalgamate various cost estimation strategies both for formulation and validation

PRAGMATICS OF USING A MODIFIED CAPM MODEL FOR ESTIMATING COST OF EQUITY ON EMERGING MARKETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vitaliy Semenyuk

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of the work is to forming pragmatic recommendations for the development and implementation the modified CAPM model in the process of estimating the equity value on emerging markets. Original CAPM model allows estimating the cost of equity on the developed capital markets. At the same time it requires the information received on the market data basis. But, as show recent empirical research, the classical model does not always produce acceptable results of the equity estimation. In addition, CAPM model in its classical form can’t be used to estimate the cost of equity for countries with emerging markets. This is due with lower efficiency in emerging markets, with lower level of liquidity and capitalization, which makes the information obtained from these markets not entirely reliable. Therefore in practice are increasingly using different modification CAPM models, that allow consider for more specific factors which affect the cost of equity. These factors, which are not considered in the classical CAPM model, include the size of the corporation and country risk. The first factor is actual for developed and emerging markets and needed to account during the equity estimation and modification the CAPM model. Country risk is associated with differences and peculiarities of the economies different countries and in the first place should be taken into account when estimating the cost of equity in emerging capital markets, which are considered by investors as more risky for investment. This factor should also be taken into account in estimating the cost of equity. Methodology In the process of constructing a modified CAPM model, theoretical and methodological provisions were used, which are set out in the work R. Banz, G. Bekaert, M. Goedhart, R. Grabowski, R. Grinold, D. Vessels, A. Damodaran, M. Dempsey, J. Zhang, R. Ibbotson, P. Kaplan, T. Koller, K. Kroner, L. Kruschwitz, M. Long, A. Lofler, G. Mandl, M. Miller, F. Modilyani, K. Nunes, D

Parametric Cost Estimates for an International Competitive Edge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, L.T.; Hickey, M.

2006-01-01

This paper summarizes the progress to date by CH2M HILL and the UKAEA in development of a parametric modelling capability for estimating the costs of large nuclear decommissioning projects in the United Kingdom (UK) and Europe. The ability to successfully apply parametric cost estimating techniques will be a key factor to commercial success in the UK and European multi-billion dollar waste management, decommissioning and environmental restoration markets. The most useful parametric models will be those that incorporate individual components representing major elements of work: reactor decommissioning, fuel cycle facility decommissioning, waste management facility decommissioning and environmental restoration. Models must be sufficiently robust to estimate indirect costs and overheads, permit pricing analysis and adjustment, and accommodate the intricacies of international monetary exchange, currency fluctuations and contingency. The development of a parametric cost estimating capability is also a key component in building a forward estimating strategy. The forward estimating strategy will enable the preparation of accurate and cost-effective out-year estimates, even when work scope is poorly defined or as yet indeterminate. Preparation of cost estimates for work outside the organizations current sites, for which detailed measurement is not possible and historical cost data does not exist, will also be facilitated. (authors)

An integrated model for estimating energy cost of a tidal current turbine farm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Ye; Lence, Barbara J.; Calisal, Sander M.

2011-01-01

A tidal current turbine is a device for harnessing energy from tidal currents and functions in a manner similar to a wind turbine. A tidal current turbine farm consists of a group of tidal current turbines distributed in a site where high-speed current is available. The accurate prediction of energy cost of a tidal current turbine farm is important to the justification of planning and constructing such a farm. However, the existing approaches used to predict energy cost of tidal current turbine farms oversimplify the hydrodynamic interactions between turbines in energy prediction and oversimplify the operation and maintenance strategies involved in cost estimation as well as related fees. In this paper, we develop a model, which integrates a marine hydrodynamic model with high accuracy for predicting energy output and a comprehensive cost-effective operation and maintenance model for estimating the cost that may be incurred in producing the energy, to predict energy cost from a tidal current turbine farm. This model is expected to be able to simulate more complicated cases and generate more accurate results than existing models. As there is no real tidal current turbine farm, we validate this model with offshore wind studies. Finally, case studies about Vancouver are conducted with a scenario-based analysis. We minimize the energy cost by minimizing the total cost and maximizing the total power output under constraints related to the local conditions (e.g., geological and labor information) and the turbine specifications. The results suggest that tidal current energy is about ready to penetrate the electricity market in some major cities in North America if learning curve for the operational and maintenance is minimum. (author)

Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Hammond, Walter E.; Vanhook, Michael E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

A Model for Shovel Capital Cost Estimation, Using a Hybrid Model of Multivariate Regression and Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdolreza Yazdani-Chamzini

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Cost estimation is an essential issue in feasibility studies in civil engineering. Many different methods can be applied to modelling costs. These methods can be divided into several main groups: (1 artificial intelligence, (2 statistical methods, and (3 analytical methods. In this paper, the multivariate regression (MVR method, which is one of the most popular linear models, and the artificial neural network (ANN method, which is widely applied to solving different prediction problems with a high degree of accuracy, have been combined to provide a cost estimate model for a shovel machine. This hybrid methodology is proposed, taking the advantages of MVR and ANN models in linear and nonlinear modelling, respectively. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the MVR model in linear modelling are used first to recognize the existing linear structure in data, and, then, the ANN for determining nonlinear patterns in preprocessed data is applied. The results with three indices indicate that the proposed model is efficient and capable of increasing the prediction accuracy.

Statistical methods of estimating mining costs

Science.gov (United States)

Long, K.R.

2011-01-01

Until it was defunded in 1995, the U.S. Bureau of Mines maintained a Cost Estimating System (CES) for prefeasibility-type economic evaluations of mineral deposits and estimating costs at producing and non-producing mines. This system had a significant role in mineral resource assessments to estimate costs of developing and operating known mineral deposits and predicted undiscovered deposits. For legal reasons, the U.S. Geological Survey cannot update and maintain CES. Instead, statistical tools are under development to estimate mining costs from basic properties of mineral deposits such as tonnage, grade, mineralogy, depth, strip ratio, distance from infrastructure, rock strength, and work index. The first step was to reestimate "Taylor's Rule" which relates operating rate to available ore tonnage. The second step was to estimate statistical models of capital and operating costs for open pit porphyry copper mines with flotation concentrators. For a sample of 27 proposed porphyry copper projects, capital costs can be estimated from three variables: mineral processing rate, strip ratio, and distance from nearest railroad before mine construction began. Of all the variables tested, operating costs were found to be significantly correlated only with strip ratio.

Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murray Christopher JL

2003-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

MONITOR: A computer model for estimating the costs of an integral monitored retrievable storage facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reimus, P.W.; Sevigny, N.L.; Schutz, M.E.; Heller, R.A.

1986-12-01

The MONITOR model is a FORTRAN 77 based computer code that provides parametric life-cycle cost estimates for a monitored retrievable storage (MRS) facility. MONITOR is very flexible in that it can estimate the costs of an MRS facility operating under almost any conceivable nuclear waste logistics scenario. The model can also accommodate input data of varying degrees of complexity and detail (ranging from very simple to more complex) which makes it ideal for use in the MRS program, where new designs and new cost data are frequently offered for consideration. MONITOR can be run as an independent program, or it can be interfaced with the Waste System Transportation and Economic Simulation (WASTES) model, a program that simulates the movement of waste through a complete nuclear waste disposal system. The WASTES model drives the MONITOR model by providing it with the annual quantities of waste that are received, stored, and shipped at the MRS facility. Three runs of MONITOR are documented in this report. Two of the runs are for Version 1 of the MONITOR code. A simulation which uses the costs developed by the Ralph M. Parsons Company in the 2A (backup) version of the MRS cost estimate. In one of these runs MONITOR was run as an independent model, and in the other run MONITOR was run using an input file generated by the WASTES model. The two runs correspond to identical cases, and the fact that they gave identical results verified that the code performed the same calculations in both modes of operation. The third run was made for Version 2 of the MONITOR code. A simulation which uses the costs developed by the Ralph M. Parsons Company in the 2B (integral) version of the MRS cost estimate. This run was made with MONITOR being run as an independent model. The results of several cases have been verified by hand calculations

Cost estimation tools in Germany and the UK. Comparison of cost estimates and actual costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfeifer, W.; Gordelier, S.; Drake, V.

2005-01-01

Full text: Accurate cost estimation for future decommissioning projects is a matter of considerable importance, especially for ensuring that sufficient funds will be available at the time of project implementation. This paper looks at the experience of cost estimation and real implementation outcomes from two countries, Germany and the UK, and draws lessons for the future. In Germany, cost estimates for the decommissioning of power reactors are updated every two years. For this purpose, the STILLKO program of the NIS Company is used. So far, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe has successfully decommissioned two prototype reactor facilities. Re-cultivation of the premises has already been completed. At the moment, the activated components of the multi-purpose research reactor (MZFR), the first pressurized water reactor in Germany that was moderated and cooled with heavy water, and of the prototype fast breeder reactor (KNK) are being dismantled remotely. Consequently, vast experience exists in particular for the updating of total costs on the basis of actually incurred expenses. The further the dismantling work proceeds, the more reliable is the total cost estimate. Here, the development of the estimated MZFR decommissioning costs shall be presented and compared with the estimates obtained for a German reference PWR-type power reactor of 1200 MW. In this way: - common features of the prototype reactor and power reactor shall be emphasized, - several parameters leading to an increase in the estimated costs shall be highlighted, - cost risks shall be outlined with the remote dismantling of the reactor pressure vessel serving as an example, - calculation parameters shall be presented, and - recommendations shall be made for a consistent estimation of costs. The United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) has a major programme for the environmental remediation of its former research and development sites at Dounreay, Windscale, Harwell and Winfrith together with the need to

Cost-Sensitive Estimation of ARMA Models for Financial Asset Return Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minyoung Kim

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The autoregressive moving average (ARMA model is a simple but powerful model in financial engineering to represent time-series with long-range statistical dependency. However, the traditional maximum likelihood (ML estimator aims to minimize a loss function that is inherently symmetric due to Gaussianity. The consequence is that when the data of interest are asset returns, and the main goal is to maximize profit by accurate forecasting, the ML objective may be less appropriate potentially leading to a suboptimal solution. Rather, it is more reasonable to adopt an asymmetric loss where the model's prediction, as long as it is in the same direction as the true return, is penalized less than the prediction in the opposite direction. We propose a quite sensible asymmetric cost-sensitive loss function and incorporate it into the ARMA model estimation. On the online portfolio selection problem with real stock return data, we demonstrate that the investment strategy based on predictions by the proposed estimator can be significantly more profitable than the traditional ML estimator.

Assuring Software Cost Estimates: Is it an Oxymoron?

Science.gov (United States)

Hihn, Jarius; Tregre, Grant

2013-01-01

The software industry repeatedly observes cost growth of well over 100% even after decades of cost estimation research and well-known best practices, so "What's the problem?" In this paper we will provide an overview of the current state oj software cost estimation best practice. We then explore whether applying some of the methods used in software assurance might improve the quality of software cost estimates. This paper especially focuses on issues associated with model calibration, estimate review, and the development and documentation of estimates as part alan integrated plan.

Melanoma costs: a dynamic model comparing estimated overall costs of various clinical stages.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandrescu, Doru Traian

2009-11-15

The rapidly increasing incidence of melanoma occurs at the same time as an increase in general healthcare costs, particularly the expenses associated with cancer care. Previous cost estimates in melanoma have not utilized a dynamic model considering the evolution of the disease and have not integrated the multiple costs associated with different aspects of medical interventions and patient-related factors. Futhermore, previous calculations have not been updated to reflect the modern tendencies in healthcare costs. We designed a comprehensive model of expenses in melanoma that considers the dynamic costs generated by the natural progression of the disease, which produces costs associated with treatment, surveillance, loss of income, and terminal care. The complete range of initial clinical (TNM) stages of the disease and initial tumor stages were analyzed in this model and the total healthcare costs for the five years following melanoma presentation at each particular stage were calculated. We have observed dramatic incremental total costs associated with progressively higher initial stages of the disease, ranging from a total of $4,648.48 for in situ tumors to $159,808.17 for Stage IV melanoma. By stage, early lesions associate 30-55 percent of their costs for the treatment of the primary tumor, due to a low rate of recurrence (local, regional, or distant), which limits the need for additional interventions. For in situ melanoma, T1a, and T1b, surveillance is an important contributor to the medical costs, accounting for more than 25 percent of the total cost over 5 years. In contrast, late lesions incur a much larger proportion of their associated costs (up to 80-85%) from the diagnosis and treatment of metastatic disease because of the increased propensity of those lesions to disseminate. This cost increases with increasing tumor stage (from $2,442.17 for T1a to $6,678.00 for T4b). The most expensive items in the medical care of patients with melanoma consist of

A Gaussian mixture model based cost function for parameter estimation of chaotic biological systems

Science.gov (United States)

Shekofteh, Yasser; Jafari, Sajad; Sprott, Julien Clinton; Hashemi Golpayegani, S. Mohammad Reza; Almasganj, Farshad

2015-02-01

As we know, many biological systems such as neurons or the heart can exhibit chaotic behavior. Conventional methods for parameter estimation in models of these systems have some limitations caused by sensitivity to initial conditions. In this paper, a novel cost function is proposed to overcome those limitations by building a statistical model on the distribution of the real system attractor in state space. This cost function is defined by the use of a likelihood score in a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) which is fitted to the observed attractor generated by the real system. Using that learned GMM, a similarity score can be defined by the computed likelihood score of the model time series. We have applied the proposed method to the parameter estimation of two important biological systems, a neuron and a cardiac pacemaker, which show chaotic behavior. Some simulated experiments are given to verify the usefulness of the proposed approach in clean and noisy conditions. The results show the adequacy of the proposed cost function.

Estimation of optimal educational cost per medical student.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Eunbae B; Lee, Seunghee

2009-09-01

This study aims to estimate the optimal educational cost per medical student. A private medical college in Seoul was targeted by the study, and its 2006 learning environment and data from the 2003~2006 budget and settlement were carefully analyzed. Through interviews with 3 medical professors and 2 experts in the economics of education, the study attempted to establish the educational cost estimation model, which yields an empirically computed estimate of the optimal cost per student in medical college. The estimation model was based primarily upon the educational cost which consisted of direct educational costs (47.25%), support costs (36.44%), fixed asset purchases (11.18%) and costs for student affairs (5.14%). These results indicate that the optimal cost per student is approximately 20,367,000 won each semester; thus, training a doctor costs 162,936,000 won over 4 years. Consequently, we inferred that the tuition levels of a local medical college or professional medical graduate school cover one quarter or one-half of the per- student cost. The findings of this study do not necessarily imply an increase in medical college tuition; the estimation of the per-student cost for training to be a doctor is one matter, and the issue of who should bear this burden is another. For further study, we should consider the college type and its location for general application of the estimation method, in addition to living expenses and opportunity costs.

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Foreman, Veronica L.; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver

2016-01-01

Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities

Parametric cost estimation for space science missions

Science.gov (United States)

Lillie, Charles F.; Thompson, Bruce E.

2008-07-01

Cost estimation for space science missions is critically important in budgeting for successful missions. The process requires consideration of a number of parameters, where many of the values are only known to a limited accuracy. The results of cost estimation are not perfect, but must be calculated and compared with the estimates that the government uses for budgeting purposes. Uncertainties in the input parameters result from evolving requirements for missions that are typically the "first of a kind" with "state-of-the-art" instruments and new spacecraft and payload technologies that make it difficult to base estimates on the cost histories of previous missions. Even the cost of heritage avionics is uncertain due to parts obsolescence and the resulting redesign work. Through experience and use of industry best practices developed in participation with the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), Northrop Grumman has developed a parametric modeling approach that can provide a reasonably accurate cost range and most probable cost for future space missions. During the initial mission phases, the approach uses mass- and powerbased cost estimating relationships (CER)'s developed with historical data from previous missions. In later mission phases, when the mission requirements are better defined, these estimates are updated with vendor's bids and "bottoms- up", "grass-roots" material and labor cost estimates based on detailed schedules and assigned tasks. In this paper we describe how we develop our CER's for parametric cost estimation and how they can be applied to estimate the costs for future space science missions like those presented to the Astronomy & Astrophysics Decadal Survey Study Committees.

A model to estimate cost-savings in diabetic foot ulcer prevention efforts.

Science.gov (United States)

Barshes, Neal R; Saedi, Samira; Wrobel, James; Kougias, Panos; Kundakcioglu, O Erhun; Armstrong, David G

2017-04-01

Sustained efforts at preventing diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) and subsequent leg amputations are sporadic in most health care systems despite the high costs associated with such complications. We sought to estimate effectiveness targets at which cost-savings (i.e. improved health outcomes at decreased total costs) might occur. A Markov model with probabilistic sensitivity analyses was used to simulate the five-year survival, incidence of foot complications, and total health care costs in a hypothetical population of 100,000 people with diabetes. Clinical event and cost estimates were obtained from previously-published trials and studies. A population without previous DFU but with 17% neuropathy and 11% peripheral artery disease (PAD) prevalence was assumed. Primary prevention (PP) was defined as reducing initial DFU incidence. PP was more than 90% likely to provide cost-savings when annual prevention costs are less than $50/person and/or annual DFU incidence is reduced by at least 25%. Efforts directed at patients with diabetes who were at moderate or high risk for DFUs were very likely to provide cost-savings if DFU incidence was decreased by at least 10% and/or the cost was less than $150 per person per year. Low-cost DFU primary prevention efforts producing even small decreases in DFU incidence may provide the best opportunity for cost-savings, especially if focused on patients with neuropathy and/or PAD. Mobile phone-based reminders, self-identification of risk factors (ex. Ipswich touch test), and written brochures may be among such low-cost interventions that should be investigated for cost-savings potential. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A Cost Estimation Model for Commander Naval Air Forces Paicifc's TACAIR F/A-18S Aviation Depot Level Repair Costs

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Duma, David

2001-01-01

.... The first section discusses the methodology used to create a cost estimation model. The second and third sections provide the results of the model's outcomes and compares and analyzes those results to the actual results...

Solid rocket motor cost model

Science.gov (United States)

Harney, A. G.; Raphael, L.; Warren, S.; Yakura, J. K.

1972-01-01

A systematic and standardized procedure for estimating life cycle costs of solid rocket motor booster configurations. The model consists of clearly defined cost categories and appropriate cost equations in which cost is related to program and hardware parameters. Cost estimating relationships are generally based on analogous experience. In this model the experience drawn on is from estimates prepared by the study contractors. Contractors' estimates are derived by means of engineering estimates for some predetermined level of detail of the SRM hardware and program functions of the system life cycle. This method is frequently referred to as bottom-up. A parametric cost analysis is a useful technique when rapid estimates are required. This is particularly true during the planning stages of a system when hardware designs and program definition are conceptual and constantly changing as the selection process, which includes cost comparisons or trade-offs, is performed. The use of cost estimating relationships also facilitates the performance of cost sensitivity studies in which relative and comparable cost comparisons are significant.

PV O&M Cost Model and Cost Reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walker, Andy

2017-03-15

This is a presentation on PV O&M cost model and cost reduction for the annual Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (2017), covering estimating PV O&M costs, polynomial expansion, and implementation of Net Present Value (NPV) and reserve account in cost models.

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Prevention Programmes in Vietnam, 2006-2010: A Modelling Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quang Duy Pham

Full Text Available Vietnam has been largely reliant on international support in its HIV response. Over 2006-2010, a total of US$480 million was invested in its HIV programmes, more than 70% of which came from international sources. This study investigates the potential epidemiological impacts of these programmes and their cost-effectiveness.We conducted a data synthesis of HIV programming, spending, epidemiological, and clinical outcomes. Counterfactual scenarios were defined based on assumed programme coverage and behaviours had the programmes not been implemented. An epidemiological model, calibrated to reflect the actual epidemiological trends, was used to estimate plausible ranges of programme impacts. The model was then used to estimate the costs per averted infection, death, and disability adjusted life-year (DALY.Based on observed prevalence reductions amongst most population groups, and plausible counterfactuals, modelling suggested that antiretroviral therapy (ART and prevention programmes over 2006-2010 have averted an estimated 50,600 [95% uncertainty bound: 36,300-68,900] new infections and 42,600 [36,100-54,100] deaths, resulting in 401,600 [312,200-496,300] fewer DALYs across all population groups. HIV programmes in Vietnam have cost an estimated US$1,972 [1,447-2,747], US$2,344 [1,843-2,765], and US$248 [201-319] for each averted infection, death, and DALY, respectively.Our evaluation suggests that HIV programmes in Vietnam have most likely had benefits that are cost-effective. ART and direct HIV prevention were the most cost-effective interventions in reducing HIV disease burden.

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Prevention Programmes in Vietnam, 2006-2010: A Modelling Study

Science.gov (United States)

Pham, Quang Duy; Wilson, David P.; Kerr, Cliff C.; Shattock, Andrew J.; Do, Hoa Mai; Duong, Anh Thuy; Nguyen, Long Thanh; Zhang, Lei

2015-01-01

Introduction Vietnam has been largely reliant on international support in its HIV response. Over 2006-2010, a total of US$480 million was invested in its HIV programmes, more than 70% of which came from international sources. This study investigates the potential epidemiological impacts of these programmes and their cost-effectiveness. Methods We conducted a data synthesis of HIV programming, spending, epidemiological, and clinical outcomes. Counterfactual scenarios were defined based on assumed programme coverage and behaviours had the programmes not been implemented. An epidemiological model, calibrated to reflect the actual epidemiological trends, was used to estimate plausible ranges of programme impacts. The model was then used to estimate the costs per averted infection, death, and disability adjusted life-year (DALY). Results Based on observed prevalence reductions amongst most population groups, and plausible counterfactuals, modelling suggested that antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prevention programmes over 2006-2010 have averted an estimated 50,600 [95% uncertainty bound: 36,300–68,900] new infections and 42,600 [36,100–54,100] deaths, resulting in 401,600 [312,200–496,300] fewer DALYs across all population groups. HIV programmes in Vietnam have cost an estimated US$1,972 [1,447–2,747], US$2,344 [1,843–2,765], and US$248 [201–319] for each averted infection, death, and DALY, respectively. Conclusions Our evaluation suggests that HIV programmes in Vietnam have most likely had benefits that are cost-effective. ART and direct HIV prevention were the most cost-effective interventions in reducing HIV disease burden. PMID:26196290

Proposed Reliability/Cost Model

Science.gov (United States)

Delionback, L. M.

1982-01-01

New technique estimates cost of improvement in reliability for complex system. Model format/approach is dependent upon use of subsystem cost-estimating relationships (CER's) in devising cost-effective policy. Proposed methodology should have application in broad range of engineering management decisions.

A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs – A case study for the Gulf of Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montewka, Jakub; Weckström, Mia; Kujala, Pentti

2013-01-01

Highlights: • A model evaluating oil spill cleanup-costs for the Gulf of Finland is presented. • Bayesian Belief Networks are used to develop the model in a probabilistic fashion. • The results are compared with existing models and good agreement is found. • The model can be applicable for cost-benefit analysis in risk framework. -- Abstract: Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA)

Estimating the costs of reducing CO2 emission via avoided deforestation with integrated assessment modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Overmars, K.P.; Tabeau, A.A.; Stehfest, E.; Meijl, van J.C.M.

2012-01-01

Estimates for deforestation and forest degradation were shown to account for about 17% of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs. Proper calculation of such a costs requires integrated modeling approach involving

Estimating the cost of epilepsy in Europe: a review with economic modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Pugliatti, Maura; Beghi, Ettore; Forsgren, Lars; Ekman, Mattias; Sobocki, Patrik

2007-12-01

Based on available epidemiologic, health economic, and international population statistics literature, the cost of epilepsy in Europe was estimated. Europe was defined as the 25 European Union member countries, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland. Guidelines for epidemiological studies on epilepsy were used for a case definition. A bottom-up prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach, the societal perspective for including the cost items, and the human capital approach as valuation principle for indirect costs were used. The cost estimates were based on selected studies with common methodology and valuation principles. The estimated prevalence of epilepsy in Europe in 2004 was 4.3-7.8 per 1,000. The estimated total cost of the disease in Europe was euro15.5 billion in 2004, indirect cost being the single most dominant cost category (euro8.6 billion). Direct health care costs were euro2.8 billion, outpatient care comprising the largest part (euro1.3 billion). Direct nonmedical cost was euro4.2 billion. That of antiepileptic drugs was euro400 million. The total cost per case was euro2,000-11,500 and the estimated cost per European inhabitant was euro33. Epilepsy is a relevant socioeconomic burden at individual, family, health services, and societal level in Europe. The greater proportion of such burden is outside the formal health care sector, antiepileptic drugs representing a smaller proportion. Lack of economic data from several European countries and other methodological limitations make this report an initial estimate of the cost of epilepsy in Europe. Prospective incidence cost-of-illness studies from well-defined populations and common methodology are encouraged.

Contingency Cost estimation for Research reactor Decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin, Hyung Gon; Hong, Yun Jeong

2016-01-01

There are many types of cost items in decommissioning cost estimation, however, contingencies are for unforeseen elements of cost within the defined project scope. Regulatory body wants to reasonable quantification for this issue. Many countries have adopted the breakdown of activity dependent and period-dependent costs to structure their estimates. Period-dependent costs could be broken down into defined time frames to reduce overall uncertainties. Several countries apply this notion by having different contingency factors for different phases of the project. This study is a compilation of contingency cost of research reactor and for each country. Simulation techniques using TRIM, MATLAB, and PSpice can be useful tools for designing detector channels. Thus far TRIM, MATLAB and PSpice have been used to calculate the detector current output pulse for SiC semiconductor detectors and to model the pulses that propagate through potential detector channels. This model is useful for optimizing the detector and the resolution for application to neutron monitoring in the Generation IV power reactors

Contingency Cost estimation for Research reactor Decommissioning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, Hyung Gon; Hong, Yun Jeong [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

There are many types of cost items in decommissioning cost estimation, however, contingencies are for unforeseen elements of cost within the defined project scope. Regulatory body wants to reasonable quantification for this issue. Many countries have adopted the breakdown of activity dependent and period-dependent costs to structure their estimates. Period-dependent costs could be broken down into defined time frames to reduce overall uncertainties. Several countries apply this notion by having different contingency factors for different phases of the project. This study is a compilation of contingency cost of research reactor and for each country. Simulation techniques using TRIM, MATLAB, and PSpice can be useful tools for designing detector channels. Thus far TRIM, MATLAB and PSpice have been used to calculate the detector current output pulse for SiC semiconductor detectors and to model the pulses that propagate through potential detector channels. This model is useful for optimizing the detector and the resolution for application to neutron monitoring in the Generation IV power reactors.

A model to estimate the cost of the National Essential Public Health Services Package in Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Delu; Wong, Sabrina T; Chen, Wei; Xin, Qianqian; Wang, Lihong; Cui, Mingming; Yin, Tao; Li, Ruili; Zheng, Xiaoguo; Yang, Huiming; Yu, Juanjuan; Chen, Bowen; Yang, Weizhong

2015-06-06

In order to address several health challenges, the Chinese government issued the National Essential Public Health Services Package (NEPHSP) in 2009. In China's large cities, the lack of funding for community health centers and consequent lack of comprehensive services and high quality care has become a major challenge. However, no study has been carried out to estimate the cost of delivering the services in the package. This project was to develop a cost estimation approach appropriate to the context and use it to calculate the cost of the NEPHSP in Beijing in 2011. By adjusting models of cost analysis of primary health care and workload indicators of staffing need developed by the World Health Organization, a model was developed to estimate the cost of the services in the package through an intensive interactive process. A total of 17 community health centers from eight administrative districts in Beijing were selected. Their service volume and expenditure data in 2010 were used to evaluate the costs of providing the NEPHSP in Beijing based on the applied model. The total workload of all types of primary health care in 17 sample centers was equivalent to the workload requirement for 14,056,402 standard clinic visits. The total expenditure of the 17 sample centers was 26,329,357.62 USD in 2010. The cost of the workload requirement of one standard clinic visit was 1.87 USD. The workload of the NEPHSP was equivalent to 5,514,777 standard clinic visits (39.23 % of the total workload). The model suggests that the cost of the package in Beijing was 7.95 USD per capita in 2010. The cost of the NEPHSP in urban areas was lower than suburban areas: 7.31 and 8.65 USD respectively. The average investment of 3.97 USD per capita in NEPHSP was lower than the amount needed to meet its running costs. NEPHSP in Beijing is therefore underfunded. Additional investment is needed, and a dynamic cost estimate mechanism should be introduced to ensure services remain adequately funded.

Handbook for cost estimating. A method for developing estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ball, J.R.; Cohen, S.; Ziegler, E.Z.

1984-10-01

This document provides overall guidance to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required by the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines and to assist in the assignment of priorities in resolving generic safety issues. The Handbook presents an overall cost model that allows the cost analyst to develop a chronological series of activities needed to implement a specific regulatory requirement throughout all applicable commercial LWR power plants and to identify the significant cost elements for each activity. References to available cost data are provided along with rules of thumb and cost factors to assist in evaluating each cost element. A suitable code-of-accounts data base is presented to assist in organizing and aggregating costs. Rudimentary cost analysis methods are described to allow the analyst to produce a constant-dollar, lifetime cost for the requirement. A step-by-step example cost estimate is included to demonstrate the overall use of the Handbook

Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

2011-01-01

The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis...... for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS) Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital...... Preservation (CMDP), the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been...

Selected Tether Applications Cost Model

Science.gov (United States)

Keeley, Michael G.

1988-01-01

Diverse cost-estimating techniques and data combined into single program. Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM 1.0) is interactive accounting software tool providing means for combining several independent cost-estimating programs into fully-integrated mathematical model capable of assessing costs, analyzing benefits, providing file-handling utilities, and putting out information in text and graphical forms to screen, printer, or plotter. Program based on Lotus 1-2-3, version 2.0. Developed to provide clear, concise traceability and visibility into methodology and rationale for estimating costs and benefits of operations of Space Station tether deployer system.

African Programme For Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2015: model-estimated health impact and cost.

Science.gov (United States)

Coffeng, Luc E; Stolk, Wilma A; Zouré, Honorat G M; Veerman, J Lennert; Agblewonu, Koffi B; Murdoch, Michele E; Noma, Mounkaila; Fobi, Grace; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Bundy, Donald A P; Habbema, Dik; de Vlas, Sake J; Amazigo, Uche V

2013-01-01

Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015. With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million. Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.

African Programme For Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2015: model-estimated health impact and cost.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luc E Coffeng

Full Text Available Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015.With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million.Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.

Cost Model for Digital Curation: Cost of Digital Migration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

2009-01-01

The Danish Ministry of Culture is currently funding a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project is to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future financial requirements...... for digital preservation and to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities. In this study we describe an activity based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the OAIS Reference Model. In order to estimate the cost of digital migrations we have identified cost critical...

The great environmental restoration cost estimating shootout: A blind test of three DOE cost estimating groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klemen, Paul

1992-01-01

The cost of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Restoration (ER) Program has increased steadily over the last three years and, in the process, has drawn increasing scrutiny from Congress, the public, and government agencies such as the Office of Management and Budget and the General Accounting Office. Programmatic costs have been reviewed by many groups from within the DOE as well as from outside agencies. While cost may appear to be a universally applicable barometer of project conditions, it is actually a single dimensional manifestation of a complex set of conditions. As such, variations in cost estimates can be caused by a variety of underlying factors such as changes in scope, schedule, performing organization, economic conditions, or regulatory environment. This paper will examine the subject of cost estimates by evaluating three different cost estimates prepared for a single project including two estimates prepared by project proponents and another estimate prepared by a review team. The paper identifies the reasons for cost growth as measured by the different estimates and evaluates the ability of review estimates to measure the validity of costs. The comparative technique used to test the three cost estimates will identify the reasons for changes in the estimated cost, over time, and evaluate the ability of an independent review to correctly identify the reasons for cost growth and evaluate the reasonableness of the cost proposed by the project proponents. Recommendations are made for improved cost estimates and improved cost estimate reviews. Conclusions are reached regarding the differences in estimate results that can be attributed to differences in estimating techniques, the implications of these differences for decision makers, and circumstances that are unique to environmental cost estimating. (author)

Estimation Model of Spacecraft Parameters and Cost Based on a Statistical Analysis of COMPASS Designs

Science.gov (United States)

Gerberich, Matthew W.; Oleson, Steven R.

2013-01-01

The Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team at Glenn Research Center has performed integrated system analysis of conceptual spacecraft mission designs since 2006 using a multidisciplinary concurrent engineering process. The set of completed designs was archived in a database, to allow for the study of relationships between design parameters. Although COMPASS uses a parametric spacecraft costing model, this research investigated the possibility of using a top-down approach to rapidly estimate the overall vehicle costs. This paper presents the relationships between significant design variables, including breakdowns of dry mass, wet mass, and cost. It also develops a model for a broad estimate of these parameters through basic mission characteristics, including the target location distance, the payload mass, the duration, the delta-v requirement, and the type of mission, propulsion, and electrical power. Finally, this paper examines the accuracy of this model in regards to past COMPASS designs, with an assessment of outlying spacecraft, and compares the results to historical data of completed NASA missions.

Estimating the economic cost of disability in Ireland

OpenAIRE

Cullinan, John; Gannon, Brenda; Lyons, Seán

2008-01-01

Addressing the extra economic costs of disability seems a logical step towards alleviating elements of social exclusion for people with disabilities. This paper estimates the economic cost of disability in Ireland in terms of the additional spending needs that arise due to disability. It defines and estimates models of the private costs borne by families with individuals who have a disability in Ireland when compared to the wider population, both in general and by severity of illness. Our mod...

Cost of Capital Estimation for Highway Concessionaires in Chile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristian Vergara-Novoa

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present the cost of capital estimation for highway concessionaires in Chile. We estimated the cost of equity and the cost of debt and determined the capital structure for each one of twenty-four concessionaires that operate highways. We based our estimations on the developments of Sharpe (1964, Modigliani and Miller (1958, and Maquieira (2009, which were also compared with the Brusov et al. (2015 developments. We collected stock prices for different highway concessionaires around the world from Google Finance and Reuters’ websites in order to determine the Beta of equity using a representative company. After that, we estimated the cost of equity considering Hamada (1969 and a Capital Asset Pricing Model. Then, we estimated the cost of capital using the cost of debt and the capital structure of Chile’s highway concessionaires. With all above, we were able to determine the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC for highway concessions which ranges from 5.49 to 6.62%.

State-Level Estimates of Cancer-Related Absenteeism Costs

Science.gov (United States)

Tangka, Florence K.; Trogdon, Justin G.; Nwaise, Isaac; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Guy, Gery P.; Orenstein, Diane

2016-01-01

Background Cancer is one of the top five most costly diseases in the United States and leads to substantial work loss. Nevertheless, limited state-level estimates of cancer absenteeism costs have been published. Methods In analyses of data from the 2004–2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau for 2008, and the 2009 Current Population Survey, we used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level absenteeism costs attributable to cancer from 2004 to 2008. Results We estimated that the state-level median number of days of absenteeism per year among employed cancer patients was 6.1 days and that annual state-level cancer absenteeism costs ranged from $14.9 million to $915.9 million (median = $115.9 million) across states in 2010 dollars. Absenteeism costs are approximately 6.5% of the costs of premature cancer mortality. Conclusions The results from this study suggest that lost productivity attributable to cancer is a substantial cost to employees and employers and contributes to estimates of the overall impact of cancer in a state population. PMID:23969498

Top-down and bottom-up approaches for cost estimating new reactor designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berbey, P.; Gautier, G.M.; Duflo, D.; Rouyer, J.L.

2007-01-01

For several years, Generation-4 designs will be 'pre-conceptual' for the less mature concepts and 'preliminary' for the more mature concepts. In this situation, appropriate data for some of the plant systems may be lacking to develop a bottom-up cost estimate. Therefore, a more global approach, the Top-Down Approach (TDA), is needed to help the designers and decision makers in comparing design options. It utilizes more or less simple models for cost estimating the different parts of a design. TDA cost estimating effort applies to a whole functional element whose cost is approached by similar estimations coming from existing data, ratios and models, for a given range of variation of parameters. Modeling is used when direct analogy is not possible. There are two types of models, global and specific ones. Global models are applied to cost modules related to Code Of Account. Exponential formulae such as Ci = Ai + (Bi x Pi n ) are used when there are cost data for comparable modules in nuclear or other industries. Specific cost models are developed for major specific components of the plant: - process equipment such as reactor vessel, steam generators or large heat exchangers. - buildings, with formulae estimating the construction cost from base cost of m3 of building volume. - systems, when unit costs, cost ratios and models are used, depending on the level of detail of the design. Bottom Up Approach (BUA), which is based on unit prices coming from similar equipment or from manufacturer consulting, is very valuable and gives better cost estimations than TDA when it can be applied, that is at a rather late stage of the design. Both approaches are complementary when some parts of the design are detailed enough to be estimated by BUA, and when BUA results are used to check TDA results and to improve TDA models. This methodology is applied to the HTR (High Temperature Reactor) concept and to an advanced PWR design

Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) Cost Estimation, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Innovation Laboratory, Inc., proposes to build a tool to estimate airline costs under TBO. This tool includes a cost model that explicitly reasons about traffic...

An Overview Of Tool For Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferries, S.R.; Klink, K.L.; Ostapkowicz, B.

2012-01-01

Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel(reg s ign) workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

NASA Instrument Cost/Schedule Model

Science.gov (United States)

Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Mrozinski, Joe; Fox, George

2011-01-01

NASA's Office of Independent Program and Cost Evaluation (IPCE) has established a number of initiatives to improve its cost and schedule estimating capabilities. 12One of these initiatives has resulted in the JPL developed NASA Instrument Cost Model. NICM is a cost and schedule estimator that contains: A system level cost estimation tool; a subsystem level cost estimation tool; a database of cost and technical parameters of over 140 previously flown remote sensing and in-situ instruments; a schedule estimator; a set of rules to estimate cost and schedule by life cycle phases (B/C/D); and a novel tool for developing joint probability distributions for cost and schedule risk (Joint Confidence Level (JCL)). This paper describes the development and use of NICM, including the data normalization processes, data mining methods (cluster analysis, principal components analysis, regression analysis and bootstrap cross validation), the estimating equations themselves and a demonstration of the NICM tool suite.

Estimating the Cost of Providing Foundational Public Health Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Mamaril, Cezar Brian C; Mays, Glen P; Branham, Douglas Keith; Bekemeier, Betty; Marlowe, Justin; Timsina, Lava

2017-12-28

To estimate the cost of resources required to implement a set of Foundational Public Health Services (FPHS) as recommended by the Institute of Medicine. A stochastic simulation model was used to generate probability distributions of input and output costs across 11 FPHS domains. We used an implementation attainment scale to estimate costs of fully implementing FPHS. We use data collected from a diverse cohort of 19 public health agencies located in three states that implemented the FPHS cost estimation methodology in their agencies during 2014-2015. The average agency incurred costs of $48 per capita implementing FPHS at their current attainment levels with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 16 percent. Achieving full FPHS implementation would require $82 per capita (CV=19 percent), indicating an estimated resource gap of $34 per capita. Substantial variation in costs exists across communities in resources currently devoted to implementing FPHS, with even larger variation in resources needed for full attainment. Reducing geographic inequities in FPHS may require novel financing mechanisms and delivery models that allow health agencies to have robust roles within the health system and realize a minimum package of public health services for the nation. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

The Psychology of Cost Estimating

Science.gov (United States)

Price, Andy

2016-01-01

Cost estimation for large (and even not so large) government programs is a challenge. The number and magnitude of cost overruns associated with large Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs highlight the difficulties in developing and promulgating accurate cost estimates. These overruns can be the result of inadequate technology readiness or requirements definition, the whims of politicians or government bureaucrats, or even as failures of the cost estimating profession itself. However, there may be another reason for cost overruns that is right in front of us, but only recently have we begun to grasp it: the fact that cost estimators and their customers are human. The last 70+ years of research into human psychology and behavioral economics have yielded amazing findings into how we humans process and use information to make judgments and decisions. What these scientists have uncovered is surprising: humans are often irrational and illogical beings, making decisions based on factors such as emotion and perception, rather than facts and data. These built-in biases to our thinking directly affect how we develop our cost estimates and how those cost estimates are used. We cost estimators can use this knowledge of biases to improve our cost estimates and also to improve how we communicate and work with our customers. By understanding how our customers think, and more importantly, why they think the way they do, we can have more productive relationships and greater influence. By using psychology to our advantage, we can more effectively help the decision maker and our organizations make fact-based decisions.

African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control 1995–2015: Model-Estimated Health Impact and Cost

Science.gov (United States)

Coffeng, Luc E.; Stolk, Wilma A.; Zouré, Honorat G. M.; Veerman, J. Lennert; Agblewonu, Koffi B.; Murdoch, Michele E.; Noma, Mounkaila; Fobi, Grace; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Bundy, Donald A. P.; Habbema, Dik; de Vlas, Sake J.; Amazigo, Uche V.

2013-01-01

Background Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015. Methods and Findings With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million. Conclusions Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future. PMID:23383355

Cost Estimation for Research Reactor Decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

One of the IAEA's statutory objectives is to 'seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world'. One way this objective is achieved is through the publication of a range of technical series. Two of these are the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series and the IAEA Safety Standards Series. According to Article III.A.6 of the IAEA Statute, the safety standards establish 'standards of safety for protection of health and minimization of danger to life and property.' The safety standards include the Safety Fundamentals, Safety Requirements and Safety Guides. These standards are written primarily in a regulatory style, and are binding on the IAEA for its own programmes. The principal users are the regulatory bodies in Member States and other national authorities. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series comprises reports designed to encourage and assist R and D on, and application of, nuclear energy for peaceful uses. This includes practical examples to be used by owners and operators of utilities in Member States, implementing organizations, academia, and government officials, among others. This information is presented in guides, reports on technology status and advances, and best practices for peaceful uses of nuclear energy based on inputs from international experts. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series complements the IAEA Safety Standards Series. The purpose of this publication is to develop a costing methodology and a software tool in order to support cost estimation for research reactor decommissioning. The costing methodology is intended for the preliminary cost estimation stages for research reactor decommissioning with limited inventory data and other input data available. Existing experience in decommissioning costing is considered. As the basis for the cost calculation structure, the costing model uses the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) that is recommended by the IAEA, the Organisation for

Approaches to estimating decommissioning costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, R.I.

1990-07-01

The chronological development of methodology for estimating the cost of nuclear reactor power station decommissioning is traced from the mid-1970s through 1990. Three techniques for developing decommissioning cost estimates are described. The two viable techniques are compared by examining estimates developed for the same nuclear power station using both methods. The comparison shows that the differences between the estimates are due largely to differing assumptions regarding the size of the utility and operating contractor overhead staffs. It is concluded that the two methods provide bounding estimates on a range of manageable costs, and provide reasonable bases for the utility rate adjustments necessary to pay for future decommissioning costs. 6 refs

Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulla Bøgvad Kejser

2011-03-01

Full Text Available The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital Preservation (CMDP, the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been supplemented with findings from the literature, and our own knowledge and experience. The identified cost-critical activities have subsequently been deconstructed into measurable components, cost dependencies have been examined, and the resulting equations expressed in a spreadsheet. Currently the model can calculate the cost of different migration scenarios for a series of preservation formats for text, images, sound, video, geodata, and spreadsheets. In order to verify the model it has been tested on cost data from two different migration projects at the Danish National Archives (DNA. The study found that the OAIS model provides a sound overall framework for the cost breakdown, but that some functions need additional detailing in order to cost activities accurately. Running the two sets of empirical data showed among other things that the model underestimates the cost of manpower-intensive migration projects, while it reinstates an often underestimated cost, which is the cost of developing migration software. The model has proven useful for estimating the

BIM – New rules of measurement ontology for construction cost estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F.H. Abanda

2017-04-01

Full Text Available For generations, the process of cost estimation has been manual, time-consuming and error-prone. Emerging Building Information Modelling (BIM can exploit standard measurement methods to automate cost estimation process and improve inaccuracies. Structuring standard measurement methods in an ontologically and machine readable format for a BIM software can greatly facilitate the process of improving inaccuracies in cost estimation. This study explores the development of an ontology based on New Rules of Measurement (NRM for cost estimation during the tendering stages. The methodology adopted is methontology, one of the most widely used ontology engineering methodologies. To ensure the ontology is fit for purpose, cost estimation experts are employed to check the semantics, descriptive logic-based reasoners are used to syntactically check the ontology and a leading 4D BIM modelling software is used on a case study building to test/validate the proposed ontology.

A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Castagne, S.; Curran, R.; Rothwell, A.; Price, M.; Benard, E.; Raghunathan, S.

2008-01-01

A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost

Studies in Software Cost Model Behavior: Do We Really Understand Cost Model Performance?

Science.gov (United States)

Lum, Karen; Hihn, Jairus; Menzies, Tim

2006-01-01

While there exists extensive literature on software cost estimation techniques, industry practice continues to rely upon standard regression-based algorithms. These software effort models are typically calibrated or tuned to local conditions using local data. This paper cautions that current approaches to model calibration often produce sub-optimal models because of the large variance problem inherent in cost data and by including far more effort multipliers than the data supports. Building optimal models requires that a wider range of models be considered while correctly calibrating these models requires rejection rules that prune variables and records and use multiple criteria for evaluating model performance. The main contribution of this paper is to document a standard method that integrates formal model identification, estimation, and validation. It also documents what we call the large variance problem that is a leading cause of cost model brittleness or instability.

Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) manufacturing of advanced therapy medicinal products: a novel tailored model for optimizing performance and estimating costs.

Science.gov (United States)

Abou-El-Enein, Mohamed; Römhild, Andy; Kaiser, Daniel; Beier, Carola; Bauer, Gerhard; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Reinke, Petra

2013-03-01

Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMP) have gained considerable attention in academia due to their therapeutic potential. Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) principles ensure the quality and sterility of manufacturing these products. We developed a model for estimating the manufacturing costs of cell therapy products and optimizing the performance of academic GMP-facilities. The "Clean-Room Technology Assessment Technique" (CTAT) was tested prospectively in the GMP facility of BCRT, Berlin, Germany, then retrospectively in the GMP facility of the University of California-Davis, California, USA. CTAT is a two-level model: level one identifies operational (core) processes and measures their fixed costs; level two identifies production (supporting) processes and measures their variable costs. The model comprises several tools to measure and optimize performance of these processes. Manufacturing costs were itemized using adjusted micro-costing system. CTAT identified GMP activities with strong correlation to the manufacturing process of cell-based products. Building best practice standards allowed for performance improvement and elimination of human errors. The model also demonstrated the unidirectional dependencies that may exist among the core GMP activities. When compared to traditional business models, the CTAT assessment resulted in a more accurate allocation of annual expenses. The estimated expenses were used to set a fee structure for both GMP facilities. A mathematical equation was also developed to provide the final product cost. CTAT can be a useful tool in estimating accurate costs for the ATMPs manufactured in an optimized GMP process. These estimates are useful when analyzing the cost-effectiveness of these novel interventions. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the costs of induced abortion in Uganda: A model-based analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background The demand for induced abortions in Uganda is high despite legal and moral proscriptions. Abortion seekers usually go to illegal, hidden clinics where procedures are performed in unhygienic environments by under-trained practitioners. These abortions, which are usually unsafe, lead to a high rate of severe complications and use of substantial, scarce healthcare resources. This study was performed to estimate the costs associated with induced abortions in Uganda. Methods A decision tree was developed to represent the consequences of induced abortion and estimate the costs of an average case. Data were obtained from a primary chart abstraction study, an on-going prospective study, and the published literature. Societal costs, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect (productivity) costs, costs to patients, and costs to the government were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty. Results The average societal cost per induced abortion (95% credibility range) was $177 ($140-$223). This is equivalent to $64 million in annual national costs. Of this, the average direct medical cost was $65 ($49-86) and the average direct non-medical cost was $19 ($16-$23). The average indirect cost was $92 ($57-$139). Patients incurred $62 ($46-$83) on average while government incurred $14 ($10-$20) on average. Conclusion Induced abortions are associated with substantial costs in Uganda and patients incur the bulk of the healthcare costs. This reinforces the case made by other researchers--that efforts by the government to reduce unsafe abortions by increasing contraceptive coverage or providing safe, legal abortions are critical. PMID:22145859

Guideline to Estimate Decommissioning Costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Taesik; Kim, Younggook; Oh, Jaeyoung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

The primary objective of this work is to provide guidelines to estimate the decommissioning cost as well as the stakeholders with plausible information to understand the decommissioning activities in a reasonable manner, which eventually contribute to acquiring the public acceptance for the nuclear power industry. Although several cases of the decommissioning cost estimate have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific and economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those cost estimates and compare them with that of a relevant plant. Trustworthy cost estimates are crucial to plan a safe and economic decommissioning project. The typical approach is to break down the decommissioning project into a series of discrete and measurable work activities. Although plant specific differences derived from the economic and technical assumptions make a licensee difficult to estimate reliable decommissioning costs, estimating decommissioning costs is the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of activities from the planning to the final evaluation on whether a decommissioning project has successfully been preceded from the perspective of safety and economic points. Hence, it is clear that tenacious efforts should be needed to successfully perform the decommissioning project.

Contractor-style tunnel cost estimating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scapuzzi, D.

1990-06-01

Keeping pace with recent advances in construction technology is a challenge for the cost estimating engineer. Using an estimating style that simulates the actual construction process and is similar in style to the contractor's estimate will give a realistic view of underground construction costs. For a contractor-style estimate, a mining method is chosen; labor crews, plant and equipment are selected, and advance rates are calculated for the various phases of work which are used to determine the length of time necessary to complete each phase of work. The durations are multiplied by the cost or labor and equipment per unit of time and, along with the costs for materials and supplies, combine to complete the estimate. Variations in advance rates, ground support, labor crew size, or other areas are more easily analyzed for their overall effect on the cost and schedule of a project. 14 figs

Parametric cost models for space telescopes

Science.gov (United States)

Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Dollinger, Courtnay

2017-11-01

Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.

Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

Science.gov (United States)

Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Dollinger, Courtney

2010-01-01

Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.

Cost Estimating Handbook for Environmental Restoration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and cost estimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimated cost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for cost estimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist cost estimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals

Methods for cost estimation in software project management

Science.gov (United States)

Briciu, C. V.; Filip, I.; Indries, I. I.

2016-02-01

The speed in which the processes used in software development field have changed makes it very difficult the task of forecasting the overall costs for a software project. By many researchers, this task has been considered unachievable, but there is a group of scientist for which this task can be solved using the already known mathematical methods (e.g. multiple linear regressions) and the new techniques as genetic programming and neural networks. The paper presents a solution for building a model for the cost estimation models in the software project management using genetic algorithms starting from the PROMISE datasets related COCOMO 81 model. In the first part of the paper, a summary of the major achievements in the research area of finding a model for estimating the overall project costs is presented together with the description of the existing software development process models. In the last part, a basic proposal of a mathematical model of a genetic programming is proposed including here the description of the chosen fitness function and chromosome representation. The perspective of model described it linked with the current reality of the software development considering as basis the software product life cycle and the current challenges and innovations in the software development area. Based on the author's experiences and the analysis of the existing models and product lifecycle it was concluded that estimation models should be adapted with the new technologies and emerging systems and they depend largely by the chosen software development method.

The relationship between cost estimates reliability and BIM adoption: SEM analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, N. A. A.; Idris, N. H.; Ramli, H.; Rooshdi, R. R. Raja Muhammad; Sahamir, S. R.

2018-02-01

This paper presents the usage of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach in analysing the effects of Building Information Modelling (BIM) technology adoption in improving the reliability of cost estimates. Based on the questionnaire survey results, SEM analysis using SPSS-AMOS application examined the relationships between BIM-improved information and cost estimates reliability factors, leading to BIM technology adoption. Six hypotheses were established prior to SEM analysis employing two types of SEM models, namely the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) model and full structural model. The SEM models were then validated through the assessment on their uni-dimensionality, validity, reliability, and fitness index, in line with the hypotheses tested. The final SEM model fit measures are: P-value=0.000, RMSEA=0.0790.90, TLI=0.956>0.90, NFI=0.935>0.90 and ChiSq/df=2.259; indicating that the overall index values achieved the required level of model fitness. The model supports all the hypotheses evaluated, confirming that all relationship exists amongst the constructs are positive and significant. Ultimately, the analysis verified that most of the respondents foresee better understanding of project input information through BIM visualization, its reliable database and coordinated data, in developing more reliable cost estimates. They also perceive to accelerate their cost estimating task through BIM adoption.

IDC reengineering Phase 2 & 3 US industry standard cost estimate summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, James M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huelskamp, Robert M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, using a commercial software cost estimation tool calibrated to US industry performance parameters. This is not a cost estimate for Sandia to perform the project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

A model to estimate the cost effectiveness of the indoorenvironment improvements in office work

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seppanen, Olli; Fisk, William J.

2004-06-01

Deteriorated indoor climate is commonly related to increases in sick building syndrome symptoms, respiratory illnesses, sick leave, reduced comfort and losses in productivity. The cost of deteriorated indoor climate for the society is high. Some calculations show that the cost is higher than the heating energy costs of the same buildings. Also building-level calculations have shown that many measures taken to improve indoor air quality and climate are cost-effective when the potential monetary savings resulting from an improved indoor climate are included as benefits gained. As an initial step towards systemizing these building level calculations we have developed a conceptual model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of various measures. The model shows the links between the improvements in the indoor environment and the following potential financial benefits: reduced medical care cost, reduced sick leave, better performance of work, lower turn over of employees, and lower cost of building maintenance due to fewer complaints about indoor air quality and climate. The pathways to these potential benefits from changes in building technology and practices go via several human responses to the indoor environment such as infectious diseases, allergies and asthma, sick building syndrome symptoms, perceived air quality, and thermal environment. The model also includes the annual cost of investments, operation costs, and cost savings of improved indoor climate. The conceptual model illustrates how various factors are linked to each other. SBS symptoms are probably the most commonly assessed health responses in IEQ studies and have been linked to several characteristics of buildings and IEQ. While the available evidence indicates that SBS symptoms can affect these outcomes and suspects that such a linkage exists, at present we can not quantify the relationships sufficiently for cost-benefit modeling. New research and analyses of existing data to quantify the financial

Implementation of the ANNs ensembles in macro-BIM cost estimates of buildings' floor structural frames

Science.gov (United States)

Juszczyk, Michał

2018-04-01

This paper reports some results of the studies on the use of artificial intelligence tools for the purposes of cost estimation based on building information models. A problem of the cost estimates based on the building information models on a macro level supported by the ensembles of artificial neural networks is concisely discussed. In the course of the research a regression model has been built for the purposes of cost estimation of buildings' floor structural frames, as higher level elements. Building information models are supposed to serve as a repository of data used for the purposes of cost estimation. The core of the model is the ensemble of neural networks. The developed model allows the prediction of cost estimates with satisfactory accuracy.

Model improves oil field operating cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glaeser, J.L.

1996-01-01

A detailed operating cost model that forecasts operating cost profiles toward the end of a field's life should be constructed for testing depletion strategies and plans for major oil fields. Developing a good understanding of future operating cost trends is important. Incorrectly forecasting the trend can result in bad decision making regarding investments and reservoir operating strategies. Recent projects show that significant operating expense reductions can be made in the latter stages o field depletion without significantly reducing the expected ultimate recoverable reserves. Predicting future operating cost trends is especially important for operators who are currently producing a field and must forecast the economic limit of the property. For reasons presented in this article, it is usually not correct to either assume that operating expense stays fixed in dollar terms throughout the lifetime of a field, nor is it correct to assume that operating costs stay fixed on a dollar per barrel basis

Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

Science.gov (United States)

Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

2007-09-01

The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

Estimating the Costs of Preventive Interventions

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, E. Michael; Porter, Michele M.; Ayers, Tim S.; Kaplan, Debra L.; Sandler, Irwin

2007-01-01

The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of cost estimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

Estimating the cost of production stoppage

Science.gov (United States)

Delionback, L. M.

1979-01-01

Estimation model considers learning curve quantities, and time of break to forecast losses due to break in production schedule. Major parameters capable of predicting costs are number of units made prior to production sequence, length of production break, and slope of learning curve produced prior to break.

Estimation of cellular manufacturing cost components using simulation and activity-based costing

OpenAIRE

Paul Savory; Robert Williams

2010-01-01

It can be difficult estimating all of the cost components that are attributed to a machined part.  This problem is more pronounced when a factory uses group technology manufacturing cells as opposed to a functional or process layout of a job shop.  This paper describes how activity-based costing (ABC) concepts can be integrated into a discrete-event simulation model of a U-shaped manufacturing cell producing a part family with four members.  The simulation model generates detai...

Estimation of cellular manufacturing cost components using simulation and activity-based costing

OpenAIRE

Savory, Paul

2010-01-01

It can be difficult estimating all of the cost components that are attributed to a machined part. This problem is more pronounced when a factory uses group technology manufacturing cells as opposed to a functional or process layout of a job shop. This paper describes how activity-based costing (ABC) concepts can be integrated into a discrete-event simulation model of a U-shaped manufacturing cell producing a part family with four members. The simulation model generates detailed Bills of Ac...

Laser cost experience and estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shofner, F.M.; Hoglund, R.L.

1977-01-01

This report addresses the question of estimating the capital and operating costs for LIS (Laser Isotope Separation) lasers, which have performance requirements well beyond the state of mature art. This question is seen with different perspectives by political leaders, ERDA administrators, scientists, and engineers concerned with reducing LIS to economically successful commercial practice, on a timely basis. Accordingly, this report attempts to provide ''ballpark'' estimators for capital and operating costs and useful design and operating information for lasers based on mature technology, and their LIS analogs. It is written very basically and is intended to respond about equally to the perspectives of administrators, scientists, and engineers. Its major contributions are establishing the current, mature, industrialized laser track record (including capital and operating cost estimators, reliability, types of application, etc.) and, especially, evolution of generalized estimating procedures for capital and operating cost estimators for new laser design

Predicting Software Projects Cost Estimation Based on Mining Historical Data

OpenAIRE

Najadat, Hassan; Alsmadi, Izzat; Shboul, Yazan

2012-01-01

In this research, a hybrid cost estimation model is proposed to produce a realistic prediction model that takes into consideration software project, product, process, and environmental elements. A cost estimation dataset is built from a large number of open source projects. Those projects are divided into three domains: communication, finance, and game projects. Several data mining techniques are used to classify software projects in terms of their development complexity. Data mining techniqu...

Project schedule and cost estimate report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-03-01

All cost tables represent obligation dollars, at both a constant FY 1987 level and an estimated escalation level, and are based on the FY 1989 DOE Congressional Budget submittal of December 1987. The cost tables display the total UMTRA Project estimated costs, which include both Federal and state funding. The Total Estimated Cost (TEC) for the UMTRA Project is approximately $992.5 million (in 1987 escalated dollars). Project schedules have been developed that provide for Project completion by September 1994, subject to Congressional approval extending DOE's authorization under Public Law 95-604. The report contains site-specific demographic data, conceptual design assumptions, preliminary cost estimates, and site schedules. A general project overview is also presented, which includes a discussion of the basis for the schedule and cost estimates, contingency assumptions, work breakdown structure, and potential project risks. The schedules and cost estimates will be revised as necessary to reflect appropriate decisions relating to relocation of certain tailings piles, or other special design considerations or circumstances (such as revised EPA groundwater standards), and changes in the Project mission. 27 figs', 97 tabs

Cost estimating for CERCLA remedial alternatives a unit cost methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brettin, R.W.; Carr, D.J.; Janke, R.J.

1995-06-01

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Guidance for Conducting Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies Under CERCLA, Interim Final, dated October 1988 (EPA 1988) requires a detailed analysis be conducted of the most promising remedial alternatives against several evaluation criteria, including cost. To complete the detailed analysis, order-of-magnitude cost estimates (having an accuracy of +50 percent to -30 percent) must be developed for each remedial alternative. This paper presents a methodology for developing cost estimates of remedial alternatives comprised of various technology and process options with a wide range of estimated contaminated media quantities. In addition, the cost estimating methodology provides flexibility for incorporating revisions to remedial alternatives and achieves the desired range of accuracy. It is important to note that the cost estimating methodology presented here was developed as a concurrent path to the development of contaminated media quantity estimates. This methodology can be initiated before contaminated media quantities are estimated. As a result, this methodology is useful in developing cost estimates for use in screening and evaluating remedial technologies and process options. However, remedial alternative cost estimates cannot be prepared without the contaminated media quantity estimates. In the conduct of the feasibility study for Operable Unit 5 at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP), fourteen remedial alternatives were retained for detailed analysis. Each remedial alternative was composed of combinations of remedial technologies and processes which were earlier determined to be best suited for addressing the media-specific contaminants found at the FEMP site, and achieving desired remedial action objectives

Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoonseok Shin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.

Estimating pressurized water reactor decommissioning costs: A user's manual for the PWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bierschbach, M.C.; Mencinsky, G.J.

1993-10-01

With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the US Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user's manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personnel computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning PWR plant stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning

Attrition Cost Model Instruction Manual

Science.gov (United States)

Yanagiura, Takeshi

2012-01-01

This instruction manual explains in detail how to use the Attrition Cost Model program, which estimates the cost of student attrition for a state's higher education system. Programmed with SAS, this model allows users to instantly calculate the cost of attrition and the cumulative attrition rate that is based on the most recent retention and…

The Launch Systems Operations Cost Model

Science.gov (United States)

Prince, Frank A.; Hamaker, Joseph W. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

One of NASA's primary missions is to reduce the cost of access to space while simultaneously increasing safety. A key component, and one of the least understood, is the recurring operations and support cost for reusable launch systems. In order to predict these costs, NASA, under the leadership of the Independent Program Assessment Office (IPAO), has commissioned the development of a Launch Systems Operations Cost Model (LSOCM). LSOCM is a tool to predict the operations & support (O&S) cost of new and modified reusable (and partially reusable) launch systems. The requirements are to predict the non-recurring cost for the ground infrastructure and the recurring cost of maintaining that infrastructure, performing vehicle logistics, and performing the O&S actions to return the vehicle to flight. In addition, the model must estimate the time required to cycle the vehicle through all of the ground processing activities. The current version of LSOCM is an amalgamation of existing tools, leveraging our understanding of shuttle operations cost with a means of predicting how the maintenance burden will change as the vehicle becomes more aircraft like. The use of the Conceptual Operations Manpower Estimating Tool/Operations Cost Model (COMET/OCM) provides a solid point of departure based on shuttle and expendable launch vehicle (ELV) experience. The incorporation of the Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) as expressed by a set of response surface model equations gives a method for estimating how changing launch system characteristics affects cost and cycle time as compared to today's shuttle system. Plans are being made to improve the model. The development team will be spending the next few months devising a structured methodology that will enable verified and validated algorithms to give accurate cost estimates. To assist in this endeavor the LSOCM team is part of an Agency wide effort to combine resources with other cost and operations professionals to

Valuing productivity costs in a changing macroeconomic environment: the estimation of colorectal cancer productivity costs using the friction cost approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanly, Paul; Koopmanschap, Marc; Sharp, Linda

2016-06-01

The friction cost approach (FCA) has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach for productivity cost valuation. However, FCA estimates are context dependent and influenced by extant macroeconomic conditions. We applied the FCA to estimate colorectal cancer labor productivity costs and assessed the impact of a changing macroeconomic environment on these estimates. Data from colorectal cancer survivors (n = 159) derived from a postal survey undertaken in Ireland March 2010 to January 2011 were combined with national wage data, population-level survival data, and occupation-specific friction periods to calculate temporary and permanent disability, and premature mortality costs using the FCA. The effects of changing labor market conditions between 2006 and 2013 on the friction period were modeled in scenario analyses. Costs were valued in 2008 euros. In the base-case, the total FCA per-person productivity cost for incident colorectal cancer patients of working age at diagnosis was €8543. In scenario 1 (a 2.2 % increase in unemployment), the fall in the friction period caused total productivity costs to decrease by up to 18 % compared to base-case estimates. In scenario 2 (a 9.2 % increase in unemployment), the largest decrease in productivity cost was up to 65 %. Adjusting for the vacancy rate reduced the effect of unemployment on the cost results. The friction period used in calculating labor productivity costs greatly affects the derived estimates; this friction period requires reassessment following changes in labor market conditions. The influence of changes in macroeconomic conditions on FCA-derived cost estimates may be substantial.

A parametric cost model for estimating operating and support costs of US Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships

OpenAIRE

Brandt, James M.

1999-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of affordability. Because there is no standardized method for calculating reliable estimates of operating and support (O&S) costs (the principal component of total ownership cost), this thesis formulates a parametric cost mo...

Cost functions of greenhouse models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linderoth, H.

2000-01-01

The benchmark is equal to the cost (D) caused by an increase in temperature since the middle of the nineteenth century (T) of nearly 2.5 deg. C. According to mainstream economists, the benchmark is 1-2% of GDP, but very different estimates can also be found. Even though there appears to be agreement among a number of economists that the benchmark is 1-2% of GDP, major differences exist when it comes to estimating D for different sectors. One of the main problems is how to estimate non-market activities. Normally, the benchmark is the best guess, but due to the possibility of catastrophic events this can be considerable smaller than the mean. Certainly, the cost function is skewed to the right. The benchmark is just one point on the cost curve. To a great extent, cost functions are alike in greenhouse models (D = α ''.T'' λ). Cost functions are region and sector dependent in several models. In any case, both α (benchmark) and λ are rough estimates. Besides being dependent on α and λ, the marginal emission cost depends on the discount rate. In fact, because emissions have effects continuing for many years, the discount rate is clearly the most important parameter. (au) (au)

Software cost estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heemstra, F.J.

1992-01-01

The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

Software cost estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heemstra, F.J.; Heemstra, F.J.

1993-01-01

The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

Computerized cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base for fusion devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, W.R.; Rothe, K.E.

1985-01-01

An automated approach to performing and cataloging cost estimates has been developed at the Fusion Engineering Design Center (FEDC), wherein the cost estimate record is stored in the LOTUS 1-2-3 spreadsheet on an IBM personal computer. The cost estimation spreadsheet is based on the cost coefficient/cost algorithm approach and incorporates a detailed generic code of cost accounts for both tokamak and tandem mirror devices. Component design parameters (weight, surface area, etc.) and cost factors are input, and direct and indirect costs are calculated. The cost data base file derived from actual cost experience within the fusion community and refined to be compatible with the spreadsheet costing approach is a catalog of cost coefficients, algorithms, and component costs arranged into data modules corresponding to specific components and/or subsystems. Each data module contains engineering, equipment, and installation labor cost data for different configurations and types of the specific component or subsystem. This paper describes the assumptions, definitions, methodology, and architecture incorporated in the development of the cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base, along with the type of input required and the output format

Cost estimates to guide manufacturing of composite waved beam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye Jinrui; Zhang Boming; Qi Haiming

2009-01-01

A cost estimation model on the basis of manufacturing process has been presented. In the model, the effects of the material, labor, tool and equipment were discussed, and the corresponding formulas were provided. A method of selecting estimation variables has been provided based on a case study of composite waved beam using autoclave cure. The model parameters related to the process time estimation of the lay-up procedure were analyzed and modified for different part configurations. The result shows that there is little error while comparing the estimated process time with the practical one. The model is verified to be applicable to guide the design and manufacturing of the composite material

Well-founded cost estimation validated by experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaGuardia, T.S.

2005-01-01

Full text: Reliable cost estimating is one of the most important elements of decommissioning planning. Alternative technologies may be evaluated and compared based on their efficiency and effectiveness, and measured against a baseline cost as to the feasibility and benefits derived from the technology. When the plan is complete, those cost considerations ensure that it is economically sound and practical for funding. Estimates of decommissioning costs have been performed and published by many organizations for many different applications. The results often vary because of differences in the work scope. Labor force cost, monetary considerations, oversight costs, the specific contaminated materials involved, the waste stream and peripheral costs associated with that type of waste, or applicable environmental compliance requirements. Many of these differences are unavoidable since a reasonable degree of reliability and accuracy can only be achieved by developing decommissioning cost estimates on a case-by-case site-specific basis. This paper describes the estimating methodology and process applied to develop decommissioning cost estimates. A major effort has been made to standardize these methodologies, and to understand the assumptions and bases that drive the costs. However, estimates are only as accurate as the information available from which to derive the costs. This information includes the assumptions of scope of the work, labour cost inputs, inflationary effects, and financial analyses that project these costs to year of expenditure. Attempts at comparison of estimates for two facilities of similar design and size must clearly identify the assumptions used in developing the estimate, and comparison of actual costs versus estimated costs must reflect these same assumptions. For the nuclear industry to grow, decommissioning estimating tools must improve to keep pace with changing technology, regulations and stakeholder issues. The decommissioning industry needs

Cost Model Comparison: A Study of Internally and Commercially Developed Cost Models in Use by NASA

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Garima

2011-01-01

NASA makes use of numerous cost models to accurately estimate the cost of various components of a mission - hardware, software, mission/ground operations - during the different stages of a mission's lifecycle. The purpose of this project was to survey these models and determine in which respects they are similar and in which they are different. The initial survey included a study of the cost drivers for each model, the form of each model (linear/exponential/other CER, range/point output, capable of risk/sensitivity analysis), and for what types of missions and for what phases of a mission lifecycle each model is capable of estimating cost. The models taken into consideration consisted of both those that were developed by NASA and those that were commercially developed: GSECT, NAFCOM, SCAT, QuickCost, PRICE, and SEER. Once the initial survey was completed, the next step in the project was to compare the cost models' capabilities in terms of Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements. This final comparison was then portrayed in a visual manner with Venn diagrams. All of the materials produced in the process of this study were then posted on the Ground Segment Team (GST) Wiki.

Early cost estimating for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ibrahim Mahamid

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop early cost estimating models for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques, based on 131 sets of data collected in the West Bank in Palestine. As the cost estimates are required at early stages of a project, considerations were given to the fact that the input data for the required regression model could be easily extracted from sketches or scope definition of the project. 11 regression models are developed to estimate the total cost of road construction project in US dollar; 5 of them include bid quantities as input variables and 6 include road length and road width. The coefficient of determination r2 for the developed models is ranging from 0.92 to 0.98 which indicate that the predicted values from a forecast models fit with the real-life data. The values of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of the developed regression models are ranging from 13% to 31%, the results compare favorably with past researches which have shown that the estimate accuracy in the early stages of a project is between ±25% and ±50%.

Cost estimation for solid waste management in industrialising regions – Precedents, problems and prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parthan, Shantha R.; Milke, Mark W.; Wilson, David C.; Cocks, John H.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We review cost estimation approaches for solid waste management. ► Unit cost method and benchmarking techniques used in industrialising regions (IR). ► Variety in scope, quality and stakeholders makes cost estimation challenging in IR. ► Integrate waste flow and cost models using cost functions to improve cost planning. - Abstract: The importance of cost planning for solid waste management (SWM) in industrialising regions (IR) is not well recognised. The approaches used to estimate costs of SWM can broadly be classified into three categories – the unit cost method, benchmarking techniques and developing cost models using sub-approaches such as cost and production function analysis. These methods have been developed into computer programmes with varying functionality and utility. IR mostly use the unit cost and benchmarking approach to estimate their SWM costs. The models for cost estimation, on the other hand, are used at times in industrialised countries, but not in IR. Taken together, these approaches could be viewed as precedents that can be modified appropriately to suit waste management systems in IR. The main challenges (or problems) one might face while attempting to do so are a lack of cost data, and a lack of quality for what data do exist. There are practical benefits to planners in IR where solid waste problems are critical and budgets are limited.

A parametric costing model for wave energy technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This document describes the philosophy and technical approach to a parametric cost model for offshore wave energy systems. Consideration is given both to existing known devices and other devices yet to be conceptualised. The report is complementary to a spreadsheet based cost estimating model. The latter permits users to derive capital cost estimates using either inherent default data or user provided data, if a particular scheme provides sufficient design definition for more accurate estimation. The model relies on design default data obtained from wave energy device designs and a set of specifically collected cost data. (author)

HTGR Cost Model Users' Manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandrik, A.M.

2012-01-01

The High Temperature Gas-Cooler Reactor (HTGR) Cost Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Cost Model calculates an estimate of the capital costs, annual operating and maintenance costs, and decommissioning costs for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. The user can generate these costs for multiple reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for a single or four-pack configuration; and for a reactor size of 350 or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Cost Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Cost Model. This model was design for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel. Modification of the HTGR Cost Model should only be performed by users familiar with Excel and Visual Basic.

Estimating the costs of intensity-modulated and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy in Ontario.

Science.gov (United States)

Yong, J H E; McGowan, T; Redmond-Misner, R; Beca, J; Warde, P; Gutierrez, E; Hoch, J S

2016-06-01

Radiotherapy is a common treatment for many cancers, but up-to-date estimates of the costs of radiotherapy are lacking. In the present study, we estimated the unit costs of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (imrt) and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-crt) in Ontario. An activity-based costing model was developed to estimate the costs of imrt and 3D-crt in prostate cancer. It included the costs of equipment, staff, and supporting infrastructure. The framework was subsequently adapted to estimate the costs of radiotherapy in breast cancer and head-and-neck cancer. We also tested various scenarios by varying the program maturity and the use of volumetric modulated arc therapy (vmat) alongside imrt. From the perspective of the health care system, treating prostate cancer with imrt and 3D-crt respectively cost $12,834 and $12,453 per patient. The cost of radiotherapy ranged from $5,270 to $14,155 and was sensitive to analytic perspective, radiation technique, and disease site. Cases of head-and-neck cancer were the most costly, being driven by treatment complexity and fractions per treatment. Although imrt was more costly than 3D-crt, its cost will likely decline over time as programs mature and vmat is incorporated. Our costing model can be modified to estimate the costs of 3D-crt and imrt for various disease sites and settings. The results demonstrate the important role of capital costs in studies of radiotherapy cost from a health system perspective, which our model can accommodate. In addition, our study established the need for future analyses of imrt cost to consider how vmat affects time consumption.

Food irradiation : estimates of cost of processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krishnamurthy, K.; Bongirwar, D.R.

1987-01-01

For estimating the cost of food irradiation, three factors have to be taken into consideration. These are : (1) capital cost incurred on irradiation device and its installation, (2) recurring or running cost which includes maintenance cost and operational expenditure, and (3) product specific cost dependent on the factors specific to the food item to be processed, its storage, handling and distribution. A simple method is proposed to provide estimates of capital costs and running costs and it is applied to prepare a detailed estimate of costs for irradiation processing of onions and fish in India. The cost of processing onions worked out to be between Rs. 40 to 120 per 1000 Kg and for fish Rs 354 per 1000 Kg. These estimates do not take into account transparation costs and fluctuations in marketing procedures. (M.G.B.). 7 tables

Comparing NASA and ESA Cost Estimating Methods for Human Missions to Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, Charles D.; vanPelt, Michel O.

2004-01-01

To compare working methodologies between the cost engineering functions in NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and ESA European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), as well as to set-up cost engineering capabilities for future manned Mars projects and other studies which involve similar subsystem technologies in MSFC and ESTEC, a demonstration cost estimate exercise was organized. This exercise was a direct way of enhancing not only cooperation between agencies but also both agencies commitment to credible cost analyses. Cost engineers in MSFC and ESTEC independently prepared life-cycle cost estimates for a reference human Mars project and subsequently compared the results and estimate methods in detail. As a non-sensitive, public domain reference case for human Mars projects, the Mars Direct concept was chosen. In this paper the results of the exercise are shown; the differences and similarities in estimate methodologies, philosophies, and databases between MSFC and ESTEC, as well as the estimate results for the Mars Direct concept. The most significant differences are explained and possible estimate improvements identified. In addition, the Mars Direct plan and the extensive cost breakdown structure jointly set-up by MSFC and ESTEC for this concept are presented. It was found that NASA applied estimate models mainly based on historic Apollo and Space Shuttle cost data, taking into account the changes in technology since then. ESA used models mostly based on European satellite and launcher cost data, taking into account the higher equipment and testing standards for human space flight. Most of NASA's and ESA s estimates for the Mars Direct case are comparable, but there are some important, consistent differences in the estimates for: 1) Large Structures and Thermal Control subsystems; 2) System Level Management, Engineering, Product Assurance and Assembly, Integration and Test/Verification activities; 3) Mission Control; 4) Space Agency Program Level

ICPP tank farm closure study. Volume III: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-02-01

This volume contains information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the six options described in Volume 1, Section 2: Option 1 -- Total removal clean closure; No subsequent use; Option 2 -- Risk-based clean closure; LLW fill; Option 3 -- Risk-based clean closure; CERCLA fill; Option 4 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; LLW fill; Option 5 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; CERCLA fill; and Option 6 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; Clean fill. This volume is divided into two portions. The first portion contains the cost and planning schedule estimates while the second portion contains life-cycle costs and yearly cash flow information for each option

Estimating the cost of a smoking employee.

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Micah; Crane, Rob; Seiber, Eric; Munur, Mehmet

2014-09-01

We attempted to estimate the excess annual costs that a US private employer may attribute to employing an individual who smokes tobacco as compared to a non-smoking employee. Reviewing and synthesising previous literature estimating certain discrete costs associated with smoking employees, we developed a cost estimation approach that approximates the total of such costs for U.S. employers. We examined absenteeism, presenteesim, smoking breaks, healthcare costs and pension benefits for smokers. Our best estimate of the annual excess cost to employ a smoker is $5816. This estimate should be taken as a general indicator of the extent of excess costs, not as a predictive point value. Employees who smoke impose significant excess costs on private employers. The results of this study may help inform employer decisions about tobacco-related policies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Preliminary Multivariable Cost Model for Space Telescopes

Science.gov (United States)

Stahl, H. Philip

2010-01-01

Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. Previously, the authors published two single variable cost models based on 19 flight missions. The current paper presents the development of a multi-variable space telescopes cost model. The validity of previously published models are tested. Cost estimating relationships which are and are not significant cost drivers are identified. And, interrelationships between variables are explored

Decommissioning Cost Estimating -The ''Price'' Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manning, R.; Gilmour, J.

2002-01-01

Over the past 9 years UKAEA has developed a formalized approach to decommissioning cost estimating. The estimating methodology and computer-based application are known collectively as the PRICE system. At the heart of the system is a database (the knowledge base) which holds resource demand data on a comprehensive range of decommissioning activities. This data is used in conjunction with project specific information (the quantities of specific components) to produce decommissioning cost estimates. PRICE is a dynamic cost-estimating tool, which can satisfy both strategic planning and project management needs. With a relatively limited analysis a basic PRICE estimate can be produced and used for the purposes of strategic planning. This same estimate can be enhanced and improved, primarily by the improvement of detail, to support sanction expenditure proposals, and also as a tender assessment and project management tool. The paper will: describe the principles of the PRICE estimating system; report on the experiences of applying the system to a wide range of projects from contaminated car parks to nuclear reactors; provide information on the performance of the system in relation to historic estimates, tender bids, and outturn costs

Thermal and nuclear power generation cost estimates using corporate financial statements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuhji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

2012-01-01

There are two generally accepted methods for estimating power generation costs: so-called 'model plant' method and the method using corporate financial statements. The method using corporate financial statements, though under some constraints, can provide useful information for comparing thermal and nuclear power generation costs. This study used this method for estimating thermal and nuclear power generation costs in Japan for the past five years, finding that the nuclear power generation cost remained stable at around 7 yen per kilowatt-hour (kWh) while the thermal power generation cost moved within a wide range of 9 to 12 yen/kWh in line with wild fluctuations in primary energy prices. The cost of nuclear power generation is expected to increase due to the enhancement of safety measures and accident damage compensation in the future, while there are reactor decommissioning, backend and many other costs that the financial statement-using approach cannot accurately estimate. In the future, efforts should be continued to comprehensively and accurately estimate total costs. (author)

FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Wang, L.; Wood, E.; Lopp, S.; Ramroth, L.

2015-05-04

The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

Stochastic cost estimating in repository life-cycle cost analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tzemos, S.; Dippold, D.

1986-01-01

The conceptual development, the design, and the final construction and operation of a nuclear repository span many decades. Given this lengthy time frame, it is quite challenging to obtain a good approximation of the repository life-cycle cost. One can deal with this challenge by using an analytic method, the method of moments, to explicitly assess the uncertainty of the estimate. A series expansion is used to approximate the uncertainty distribution of the cost estimate. In this paper, the moment methodology is derived and is illustrated through a numerical example. The range of validity of the approximation is discussed. The method of moments is compared to the traditional stochastic cost estimating methods and found to provide more and better information on cost uncertainty. The tow methods converge to identical results as the number of convolved variables increases and approaches the range where the central limit theorem is valid

Towards Greater Harmonisation of Decommissioning Cost Estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Laraia, Michele; ); LaGuardia, Thomas S.

2010-01-01

The NEA Decommissioning Cost Estimation Group (DCEG), in collaboration with the IAEA Waste Technology Section and the EC Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, has recently studied cost estimation practices in 12 countries - Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. Its findings are to be published in an OECD/NEA report entitled Cost Estimation for Decommissioning: An International Overview of Cost Elements, Estimation Practices and Reporting Requirements. This booklet highlights the findings contained in the full report. (authors)

Methodology used in IRSN nuclear accident cost estimates in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences. (authors)

A risk-adjusted financial model to estimate the cost of a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery lobectomy programme.

Science.gov (United States)

Brunelli, Alessandro; Tentzeris, Vasileios; Sandri, Alberto; McKenna, Alexandra; Liew, Shan Liung; Milton, Richard; Chaudhuri, Nilanjan; Kefaloyannis, Emmanuel; Papagiannopoulos, Kostas

2016-05-01

To develop a clinically risk-adjusted financial model to estimate the cost associated with a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy programme. Prospectively collected data of 236 VATS lobectomy patients (August 2012-December 2013) were analysed retrospectively. Fixed and variable intraoperative and postoperative costs were retrieved from the Hospital Accounting Department. Baseline and surgical variables were tested for a possible association with total cost using a multivariable linear regression and bootstrap analyses. Costs were calculated in GBP and expressed in Euros (EUR:GBP exchange rate 1.4). The average total cost of a VATS lobectomy was €11 368 (range €6992-€62 535). Average intraoperative (including surgical and anaesthetic time, overhead, disposable materials) and postoperative costs [including ward stay, high dependency unit (HDU) or intensive care unit (ICU) and variable costs associated with management of complications] were €8226 (range €5656-€13 296) and €3029 (range €529-€51 970), respectively. The following variables remained reliably associated with total costs after linear regression analysis and bootstrap: carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity (DLCO) 0.05) in 86% of the samples. A hypothetical patient with COPD and DLCO less than 60% would cost €4270 more than a patient without COPD and with higher DLCO values (€14 793 vs €10 523). Risk-adjusting financial data can help estimate the total cost associated with VATS lobectomy based on clinical factors. This model can be used to audit the internal financial performance of a VATS lobectomy programme for budgeting, planning and for appropriate bundled payment reimbursements. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Integrated modeling of software cost and quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rone, K.Y.; Olson, K.M.

1994-01-01

In modeling the cost and quality of software systems, the relationship between cost and quality must be considered. This explicit relationship is dictated by the criticality of the software being developed. The balance between cost and quality is a viable software engineering trade-off throughout the life cycle. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate the cost and quality of software systems is essential to providing reliable software on time and within budget. Software cost models relate the product error rate to the percent of the project labor that is required for independent verification and validation. The criticality of the software determines which cost model is used to estimate the labor required to develop the software. Software quality models yield an expected error discovery rate based on the software size, criticality, software development environment, and the level of competence of the project and the developers with respect to the processes being employed

Preliminary cost estimating for the nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klumpar, I.V.; Soltz, K.M.

1985-01-01

The nuclear industry has higher costs for personnel, equipment, construction, and engineering than conventional industry, which means that cost estimation procedures may need adjustment. The authors account for the special technical and labor requirements of the nuclear industry in making adjustments to equipment and installation cost estimations. Using illustrative examples, they show that conventional methods of preliminary cost estimation are flexible enough for application to emerging industries if their cost structure is similar to that of the process industries. If not, modifications can provide enough engineering and cost data for a statistical analysis. 9 references, 14 figures, 4 tables

Cost estimating for large nuclear projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duggal, A.; Hunt, M.

2004-01-01

In today's market, the generation of electricity is a very competitive business, which is constantly under the watchful eye of the media and public. Nuclear power faces a lot of competition from other sources such as hydro, coal and gas. Controlling costs, monitoring costs, feedback, industry knowledge and up to date cost estimating tools are essential for a nuclear company to compete on a long term basis. This paper reviews the terminology and estimating principles used for the construction of new nuclear plants, lifetime operating costs, and the costs associated with refurbishment work. (author)

Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lukey, M.E.; Prasad, C.; Toothman, D.A.; Kaplan, N.

1999-07-01

Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lukey, M E; Prasad, C; Toothman, D A; Kaplan, N

1999-07-01

Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

..., quantity, and cost. (ii) Direct labor. Provide a time-phased (e.g., monthly, quarterly) breakdown of labor... estimates. (iii) Allocable direct costs. Indicate how allocable costs are computed and applied, including... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cost estimate submission. 100.16 Section...

A new approach for product cost estimation using data envelopment analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adil Salam

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Cost estimation of new products has always been difficult as only few design, manufacturing and operational features will be known. In these situations, parametric or non-parametric methods are commonly used to estimate the cost of a product given the corresponding cost drivers. The parametric models use priori determined cost function where the parameters of the function are evaluated from historical data. Non-parametric methods, on the other hand, attempt to fit curves to the historic data without predetermined function. In both methods, it is assumed that the historic data used in the analysis is a true representation of the relation between the cost drivers and the corresponding costs. However, because of efficiency variations of the manufacturers and suppliers, changes in supplier selections, market fluctuations, and several other reasons, certain costs in the historic data may be too high whereas other costs may represent better deals for their corresponding cost drivers. Thus, it may be important to rank the historic data and identify benchmarks and estimate the target costs of the product based on these benchmarks. In this paper, a novel adaptation of cost drivers and cost data is introduced in order to use data envelopment analysis for the purpose of ranking cost data and identify benchmarks, and then estimate the target costs of a new product based on these benchmarks. An illustrative case study has been presented for the cost estimation of landing gears of an aircraft manufactured by an aerospace company located in Montreal, CANADA.

The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

1988-08-01

This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs

The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

1988-08-01

This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

Using bayesian model to estimate the cost of traffic injuries in Iran in 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Ainy, Elaheh; Soori, Hamid; Ganjali, Mojtaba; Bahadorimonfared, Ayad

2017-01-01

A significant social and economic burden inflicts by road traffic injuries (RTIs). We aimed to use Bayesian model, to present the precise method, and to estimate the cost of RTIs in Iran in 2013. In a cross-sectional study on costs resulting from traffic injuries, 846 people per road user were randomly selected and investigated during 3 months (1 st September-1 st December) in 2013. The research questionnaire was prepared based on the standard for willingness to pay (WTP) method considering perceived risks, especially in Iran. Data were collected along with four scenarios for occupants, pedestrians, vehicle drivers, and motorcyclists. Inclusion criterion was having at least high school education and being in the age range of 18-65 years old; risk perception was an important factor to the study and measured by visual tool. Samples who did not have risk perception were excluded from the study. Main outcome measure was cost estimation of traffic injuries using WTP method. Mean WTP was 2,612,050 internal rate of return (IRR) among these road users. Statistical value of life was estimated according to 20,408 death cases 402,314,106,073,648 IRR, equivalent to 13,410,470,202$ based on the dollar free market rate of 30,000 IRR (purchase power parity). In sum, injury and death cases came to 1,171,450,232,238,648 IRR equivalents to 39,048,341,074$. Moreover, in 2013, costs of traffic accident constituted 6.46% of gross national income, which was 604,300,000,000$. WTP had a significant relationship with age, middle and high income, daily payment to injury reduction, more payment to time reduction, trip mileage, private cars drivers, bus, minibus vehicles, and occupants ( P < 0.01). Costs of traffic injuries included noticeable portion of gross national income. If policy-making and resource allocation are made based on the scientific pieces of evidence, an enormous amount of capital can be saved through reducing death and injury rates.

Modeling Operations Costs for Human Exploration Architectures

Science.gov (United States)

Shishko, Robert

2013-01-01

Operations and support (O&S) costs for human spaceflight have not received the same attention in the cost estimating community as have development costs. This is unfortunate as O&S costs typically comprise a majority of life-cycle costs (LCC) in such programs as the International Space Station (ISS) and the now-cancelled Constellation Program. Recognizing this, the Constellation Program and NASA HQs supported the development of an O&S cost model specifically for human spaceflight. This model, known as the Exploration Architectures Operations Cost Model (ExAOCM), provided the operations cost estimates for a variety of alternative human missions to the moon, Mars, and Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) in architectural studies. ExAOCM is philosophically based on the DoD Architecture Framework (DoDAF) concepts of operational nodes, systems, operational functions, and milestones. This paper presents some of the historical background surrounding the development of the model, and discusses the underlying structure, its unusual user interface, and lastly, previous examples of its use in the aforementioned architectural studies.

Development of an integrated cost model for nuclear plant decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amos, G.; Roy, R.

2003-01-01

A need for an integrated cost estimating tool for nuclear decommissioning and associated waste processing and storage facilities for Intermediate Level Waste (ILW) was defined during the authors recent MSc studies. In order to close the defined gap a prototype tool was developed using logically derived CER's and cost driver variables. The challenge in developing this was to be able to produce a model that could produce realistic cost estimates from the limited levels of historic cost data that was available for analysis. The model is an excel based tool supported by 3 point risk estimating output and is suitable for producing estimates for strategic or optional cost estimates (±30%) early in the conceptual stage of a decommissioning project. The model was validated using minimal numbers of case studies supported by expert opinion discussion. The model provides an enhanced approach for integrated decommissioning estimates which will be produced concurrently with strategic options analysis on a nuclear site

Video distribution system cost model

Science.gov (United States)

Gershkoff, I.; Haspert, J. K.; Morgenstern, B.

1980-01-01

A cost model that can be used to systematically identify the costs of procuring and operating satellite linked communications systems is described. The user defines a network configuration by specifying the location of each participating site, the interconnection requirements, and the transmission paths available for the uplink (studio to satellite), downlink (satellite to audience), and voice talkback (between audience and studio) segments of the network. The model uses this information to calculate the least expensive signal distribution path for each participating site. Cost estimates are broken downy by capital, installation, lease, operations and maintenance. The design of the model permits flexibility in specifying network and cost structure.

Naval Aircraft Operating and Support Cost-Estimating Model - FY77 Revision

Science.gov (United States)

1979-02-01

cont’d.) SAMPLE DPERflTING AND SUPPDRT COST ESTIMATE CTHQUSAMtiS DP FY77S:> iso AVERAGE AHNUAL TDTflL COST COST PER UE 10 AC TDTflL 939...0 01 1 1 0 0 J 9 ? 9 p 14 0 0J 15 0 0, 9 1 P 1700J 18ij 0 P 1900 P 9p £1 0 0 P £8 00 P 9» £400 P 9J 9P 27001 £8 0 0 P 9p 3 000 £ P 31 01 j P 9 ? 3

Fuzzy/Neural Software Estimates Costs of Rocket-Engine Tests

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, Freddie; Bourgeois, Edit Kaminsky

2005-01-01

The Highly Accurate Cost Estimating Model (HACEM) is a software system for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center. HACEM is built on a foundation of adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) a hybrid software concept that combines the adaptive capabilities of neural networks with the ease of development and additional benefits of fuzzy-logic-based systems. In ANFIS, fuzzy inference systems are trained by use of neural networks. HACEM includes selectable subsystems that utilize various numbers and types of inputs, various numbers of fuzzy membership functions, and various input-preprocessing techniques. The inputs to HACEM are parameters of specific tests or series of tests. These parameters include test type (component or engine test), number and duration of tests, and thrust level(s) (in the case of engine tests). The ANFIS in HACEM are trained by use of sets of these parameters, along with costs of past tests. Thereafter, the user feeds HACEM a simple input text file that contains the parameters of a planned test or series of tests, the user selects the desired HACEM subsystem, and the subsystem processes the parameters into an estimate of cost(s).

A General Model for Cost Estimation in an Exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benzion Barlev

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Current Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP state that the cost of an asset acquired for cash is the fair value (FV of the amount surrendered, and that of an asset acquired in a non-monetary exchange is the FV of the asset surrendered or, if it is more “clearly evident,” the FV of the acquired asset. The measurement method prescribed for a non-monetary exchange ignores valuable information about the “less clearly evident” asset. Thus, we suggest that the FV in any exchange be measured by the weighted average of the exchanged assets’ FV estimations, where the weights are the inverse of the variances’ estimations. This alternative valuation process accounts for the uncertainty involved in estimating the FV of each of the asset in the exchange. The proposed method suits all types of exchanges: monetary and non-monetary. In a monetary transaction, the weighted average equals the cash paid because the variance of its FV is nil.

Construction cost estimation of spherical storage tanks: artificial neural networks and hybrid regression—GA algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Arabzadeh, Vida; Niaki, S. T. A.; Arabzadeh, Vahid

2017-10-01

One of the most important processes in the early stages of construction projects is to estimate the cost involved. This process involves a wide range of uncertainties, which make it a challenging task. Because of unknown issues, using the experience of the experts or looking for similar cases are the conventional methods to deal with cost estimation. The current study presents data-driven methods for cost estimation based on the application of artificial neural network (ANN) and regression models. The learning algorithms of the ANN are the Levenberg-Marquardt and the Bayesian regulated. Moreover, regression models are hybridized with a genetic algorithm to obtain better estimates of the coefficients. The methods are applied in a real case, where the input parameters of the models are assigned based on the key issues involved in a spherical tank construction. The results reveal that while a high correlation between the estimated cost and the real cost exists; both ANNs could perform better than the hybridized regression models. In addition, the ANN with the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm (LMNN) obtains a better estimation than the ANN with the Bayesian-regulated learning algorithm (BRNN). The correlation between real data and estimated values is over 90%, while the mean square error is achieved around 0.4. The proposed LMNN model can be effective to reduce uncertainty and complexity in the early stages of the construction project.

Waste management facilities cost information: System cost model product description. Revision 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lundeen, A.S.; Hsu, K.M.; Shropshire, D.E.

1996-02-01

In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for DOE wastes. Transportation costs are provided for truck and rail and include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities

COSTMODL - AN AUTOMATED SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COST ESTIMATION TOOL

Science.gov (United States)

Roush, G. B.

1994-01-01

The cost of developing computer software consumes an increasing portion of many organizations' budgets. As this trend continues, the capability to estimate the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product becomes increasingly important. COSTMODL is an automated software development estimation tool which fulfills this need. Assimilating COSTMODL to any organization's particular environment can yield significant reduction in the risk of cost overruns and failed projects. This user-customization capability is unmatched by any other available estimation tool. COSTMODL accepts a description of a software product to be developed and computes estimates of the effort required to produce it, the calendar schedule required, and the distribution of effort and staffing as a function of the defined set of development life-cycle phases. This is accomplished by the five cost estimation algorithms incorporated into COSTMODL: the NASA-developed KISS model; the Basic, Intermediate, and Ada COCOMO models; and the Incremental Development model. This choice affords the user the ability to handle project complexities ranging from small, relatively simple projects to very large projects. Unique to COSTMODL is the ability to redefine the life-cycle phases of development and the capability to display a graphic representation of the optimum organizational structure required to develop the subject project, along with required staffing levels and skills. The program is menu-driven and mouse sensitive with an extensive context-sensitive help system that makes it possible for a new user to easily install and operate the program and to learn the fundamentals of cost estimation without having prior training or separate documentation. The implementation of these functions, along with the customization feature, into one program makes COSTMODL unique within the industry. COSTMODL was written for IBM PC compatibles, and it requires Turbo Pascal 5.0 or later and Turbo

A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

2018-02-01

Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ball, J.R.

1986-04-01

This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided.

Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ball, J.R.

1986-04-01

This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided

Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling Installation and Decommissioning

CERN Document Server

Kaiser, Mark J

2012-01-01

Offshore wind energy is one of the most promising and fastest growing alternative energy sources in the world. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a methodological framework to assess installation and decommissioning costs, and using examples from the European experience, provides a broad review of existing processes and systems used in the offshore wind industry. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a step-by-step guide to modeling costs over four sections. These sections cover: ·Background and introductory material, ·Installation processes and vessel requirements, ·Installation cost estimation, and ·Decommissioning methods and cost estimation.  This self-contained and detailed treatment of the key principles in offshore wind development is supported throughout by visual aids and data tables. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling is a key resource for anyone interested in the offshore wind industry, particularly those interested in the technical and economic aspects of installation and decom...

Estimated generic prices of cancer medicines deemed cost-ineffective in England: a cost estimation analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Andrew; Redd, Christopher; Gotham, Dzintars; Erbacher, Isabelle; Meldrum, Jonathan; Harada, Ryo

2017-01-20

The aim of this study was to estimate lowest possible treatment costs for four novel cancer drugs, hypothesising that generic manufacturing could significantly reduce treatment costs. This research was carried out in a non-clinical research setting using secondary data. There were no human participants in the study. Four drugs were selected for the study: bortezomib, dasatinib, everolimus and gefitinib. These medications were selected according to their clinical importance, novel pharmaceutical actions and the availability of generic price data. Target costs for treatment were to be generated for each indication for each treatment. The primary outcome measure was the target cost according to a production cost calculation algorithm. The secondary outcome measure was the target cost as the lowest available generic price; this was necessary where export data were not available to generate an estimate from our cost calculation algorithm. Other outcomes included patent expiry dates and total eligible treatment populations. Target prices were £411 per cycle for bortezomib, £9 per month for dasatinib, £852 per month for everolimus and £10 per month for gefitinib. Compared with current list prices in England, these target prices would represent reductions of 74-99.6%. Patent expiry dates were bortezomib 2014-22, dasatinib 2020-26, everolimus 2019-25 and gefitinib 2017. The total global eligible treatment population in 1 year is 769 736. Our findings demonstrate that affordable drug treatment costs are possible for novel cancer drugs, suggesting that new therapeutic options can be made available to patients and doctors worldwide. Assessing treatment cost estimations alongside cost-effectiveness evaluations is an important area of future research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Cost estimation of thermal and nuclear power using annual securities report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

2011-01-01

Cost estimation of generation cost derived from various power sources was widely conducted using model plant or annual securities report of electric utilities. Although annual securities report method was subjected to some limitation in methodology itself, useful information was obtained for cost comparison of thermal and nuclear power. Studies on generation cost evaluation of thermal and nuclear power based on this method during past five years showed that nuclear power cost was almost stable 7 Yen/kWh and thermal power cost was varying 9 - 12 Yen/kWh dependent on violent fluctuations of primary energy cost. Nuclear power was expected cost increase due to enhanced safety requirements or damage compensation of accidents as well as decommissioning and back-end cost, which were difficult to evaluate accurately with annual securities report. Further comprehensive and accurate cost estimation should be encouraged including these items. (T. Tanaka)

Collider Scaling and Cost Estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palmer, R.B.

1986-01-01

This paper deals with collider cost and scaling. The main points of the discussion are the following ones: 1) scaling laws and cost estimation: accelerating gradient requirements, total stored RF energy considerations, peak power consideration, average power consumption; 2) cost optimization; 3) Bremsstrahlung considerations; 4) Focusing optics: conventional, laser focusing or super disruption. 13 refs

Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, Serge; Descures, Sylvain; Du Pasquier, Louis; Francois, Patrice; Buonarotti, Stefano; Mariotti, Giovanni; Tarakonov, Jurij; Daniska, Vladimir; Bergh, Niklas; Carroll, Simon; AaSTRoeM, Annika; Cato, Anna; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Rodriguez, Jose; Laird, Alastair; Ridpath, Andy; La Guardia, Thomas; O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Weber, Inge; )

2017-01-01

The cost estimation process of decommissioning nuclear facilities has continued to evolve in recent years, with a general trend towards demonstrating greater levels of detail in the estimate and more explicit consideration of uncertainties, the latter of which may have an impact on decommissioning project costs. The 2012 report on the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) of Nuclear Installations, a joint recommendation by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Commission, proposes a standardised structure of cost items for decommissioning projects that can be used either directly for the production of cost estimates or for mapping of cost items for benchmarking purposes. The ISDC, however, provides only limited guidance on the treatment of uncertainty when preparing cost estimates. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities, prepared jointly by the NEA and IAEA, is intended to complement the ISDC, assisting cost estimators and reviewers in systematically addressing uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimates. Based on experiences gained in participating countries and projects, the report describes how uncertainty and risks can be analysed and incorporated in decommissioning cost estimates, while presenting the outcomes in a transparent manner

Costs of regulatory compliance: categories and estimating techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulte, S.C.; McDonald, C.L.; Wood, M.T.; Cole, R.M.; Hauschulz, K.

1978-10-01

Use of the categorization scheme and cost estimating approaches presented in this report can make cost estimates of regulation required compliance activities of value to policy makers. The report describes a uniform assessment framework that when used would assure that cost studies are generated on an equivalent basis. Such normalization would make comparisons of different compliance activity cost estimates more meaningful, thus enabling the relative merits of different regulatory options to be more effectively judged. The framework establishes uniform cost reporting accounts and cost estimating approaches for use in assessing the costs of complying with regulatory actions. The framework was specifically developed for use in a current study at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. However, use of the procedures for other applications is also appropriate

Process Cost Modeling for Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Han P.; Freeman, William (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to

Global transportation cost modeling for long range planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

1998-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost-estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost-estimating model, known as the TEn-year Plan TRAnsportation cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for recovering and processing of the wastes, packaging the wastes for transport, and the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing nd undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements. (authors)

An Analytical Cost Estimation Procedure

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Jayachandran, Toke

1999-01-01

Analytical procedures that can be used to do a sensitivity analysis of a cost estimate, and to perform tradeoffs to identify input values that can reduce the total cost of a project, are described in the report...

Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs. A user's manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software: Draft report for comment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bierschbach, M.C.

1994-12-01

With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the U.S. Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user's manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning BWR power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning

Milestones of mathematical model for business process management related to cost estimate documentation in petroleum industry

Science.gov (United States)

Khamidullin, R. I.

2018-05-01

The paper is devoted to milestones of the optimal mathematical model for a business process related to cost estimate documentation compiled during construction and reconstruction of oil and gas facilities. It describes the study and analysis of fundamental issues in petroleum industry, which are caused by economic instability and deterioration of a business strategy. Business process management is presented as business process modeling aimed at the improvement of the studied business process, namely main criteria of optimization and recommendations for the improvement of the above-mentioned business model.

Animated-simulation modeling facilitates clinical-process costing.

Science.gov (United States)

Zelman, W N; Glick, N D; Blackmore, C C

2001-09-01

Traditionally, the finance department has assumed responsibility for assessing process costs in healthcare organizations. To enhance process-improvement efforts, however, many healthcare providers need to include clinical staff in process cost analysis. Although clinical staff often use electronic spreadsheets to model the cost of specific processes, PC-based animated-simulation tools offer two major advantages over spreadsheets: they allow clinicians to interact more easily with the costing model so that it more closely represents the process being modeled, and they represent cost output as a cost range rather than as a single cost estimate, thereby providing more useful information for decision making.

Methodology applied by IRSN for nuclear accident cost estimations in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences

Qualitative and quantitative cost estimation : a methodology analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aram, S.; Eastman, C.; Beetz, J.; Issa, R.; Flood, I.

2014-01-01

This paper reports on the first part of ongoing research with the goal of designing a framework and a knowledge-based system for 3D parametric model-based quantity take-off and cost estimation in the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry. The authors have studied and analyzed

Residential outage cost estimation: Hong Kong

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Shiu, A.; Cheng, Y.S.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

2014-01-01

Hong Kong has almost perfect electricity reliability, the result of substantial investments ultimately financed by electricity consumers who may be willing to accept lower reliability in exchange for lower bills. But consumers with high outage costs are likely to reject the reliability reduction. Our ordered-logit regression analysis of the responses by 1876 households to a telephone survey conducted in June 2013 indicates that Hong Kong residents exhibit a statistically-significant preference for their existing service reliability and rate. Moreover, the average residential cost estimate for a 1-h outage is US$45 (HK$350), topping the estimates reported in 10 of the 11 studies published in the last 10 years. The policy implication is that absent additional compelling evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its service reliability. - Highlights: • Use a contingent valuation survey to obtain residential preferences for reliability. • Use an ordered logit analysis to estimate Hong Kong's residential outage costs. • Find high outage cost estimates that imply high reliability requirements. • Conclude that sans new evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its reliability

Controlling Campylobacter in the chicken meat chain; Estimation of intervention costs

OpenAIRE

Mangen, M.J.J.; Havelaar, A.H.; Poppe, K.J.

2005-01-01

Campylobacter infections are a serious public health problem in the Netherlands. As a part of the CARMA project, this study focus on the estimation of the potential direct costs related to the implementation of various intervention measures to control campylobacters in the chicken meat chain. Costs were estimated using a second-order stochastic simulation model. Treating only positively tested flocks is far cheaper than treating all flocks. The implementation of equipment to reduce faecal lea...

Estimation development cost, study case: Quality Management System Reactor TRIGA Mark III

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antúnez Barbosa, Tereso Antonio; Valdovinos Rosas, Rosa María; Marcial Romero, José Raymundo; Ramos Corchado, Marco Antonio; Edgar Herrera Arriaga

2016-01-01

The process of estimating costs in software engineering is not a simple task, it must be addressed carefully to obtain an efficient strategy to solve problems associated with the effort, cost and time of activities that are performed in the development of an information system project. In this context the main goal for both developers and customers is the cost, since developers are worry about the effort pay-load and customers are worry about the product pay-load. However, in other fields the cost of goods depends on the activity or process that is performed, thereby deduce that the main cost of the final product of a development project software project is undoubtedly its size. In this paper a comparative study of common models for estimating costs are developed. These models are used today in order to create a structured analysis to provide the necessary information about cost, time and effort for making decisions in a software development project. Finally the models are applied to a case study, which is a system called Monitorizacion Automatica del Sistema de Gestion de Calidad del Reactor TRIGA Mark III. (author)

Estimating the implied cost of carbon in future scenarios using a CGE model: The Case of Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hannum, Christopher; Cutler, Harvey; Iverson, Terrence; Keyser, David

2017-01-01

Using Colorado as a case study, we develop a state-level computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that reflects the roles of coal, natural gas, wind, solar, and hydroelectricity in supplying electricity. We focus on the economic impact of implementing Colorado's existing Renewable Portfolio Standard, updated in 2013. This requires that 25% of state generation come from qualifying renewable sources by 2020. We evaluate the policy under a variety of assumptions regarding wind integration costs and assumptions on the persistence of federal subsidies for wind. Specifically, we estimate the implied price of carbon as the carbon price at which a state-level policy would pass a state-level cost-benefit analysis, taking account of estimated greenhouse gas emission reductions and ancillary benefits from corresponding reductions in criteria pollutants. Our findings suggest that without the Production Tax Credit (federal aid), the state policy of mandating renewable power generation (RPS) is costly to state actors, with an implied cost of carbon of about $17 per ton of CO2 with a 3% discount rate. Federal aid makes the decision between natural gas and wind nearly cost neutral for Colorado. - Highlights: • If variability cost is low and renewables are federally subsidized, RPS is beneficial. • With no PTC or high variability cost, drop in real consumption less than 0.1%. • With PTC phaseout and high variability cost ICP is low, between $7.16 and $11.45. • With no PTC and high variability cost ICP is between $12.66 and $17.34 per ton.

Global transportation cost modeling for long-range planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

1998-02-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to a significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost estimating model, known as the Ten-year Plan Transportation Cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for (a) recovering and processing of the wastes, (b)packaging the wastes for transport, and (c) the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order of magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing and undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements

Guidelines for estimating nuclear power plant decommissioning costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaGuardia, T.S.; Williams, D.H.

1989-01-01

The objectives of the study were: (1) To develop guidelines to facilitate estimating the cost of nuclear power plant decommissioning alternatives on a plant-specific basis and to facilitate comparing estimates made by others. The guidelines are expressed in a form that could be readily adapted by technical specialists from individual utilities or by other uses. (2) To enhance the industry's credibility with decision-makes at the state and federal levels during rate/regulatory processes involving decommissioning costs. This is accomplished by providing a detailed, systematic breakdown of how decommissioning cost estimates are prepared. (3) To increase the validity, realism, and accuracy of site-specific decommissioning cost estimates. This is accomplished by pulling together the experiences and practices of several nuclear utilities and consultants in conducting past decommissioning cost estimates

Modeling of Construction Cost of Villas in Oman

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MA Al-Mohsin

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In this research, a model for estimating construction cost of villas is presented. The model takes into account four major factors affecting villa's cost, namely: built up area, number of toilets, number of bedrooms and the number of stories. A field survey was conducted to collect information required for such model using data collection form designed by the researchers. Information about 150 villas was collected from six well experienced consultants in the field of villa design and supervision in Oman. Collected data was analyzed to develop suggested model which consists of two main levels of estimate. The first level is at the conceptual design stage where the client presents his/her need of space and basic information about the available plot for construction. The second level of cost estimation is carried out after the preliminary design stage where the client has to decide on the finishes and type of structure. At the second level of estimation, the client should be able to decide whether to precede for construction or not, according to his/her budget. The model is general and can be used anywhere and was validated for accepted degree of confidence using the actual cost of the 112 executed villa projects in Oman. The villas included in this study were owned by clients from both high and low income brackets and had different types of finishing material. The developed equations showed good correlation between the selected variables and the actual cost with R2  = 0.79 in the case of conceptual estimate and R2  = 0.601 for preliminary estimate.

Cost analysis and estimating tools and techniques

CERN Document Server

Nussbaum, Daniel

1990-01-01

Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat­ ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap­ proaches to estimating costs are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug­ mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective­ ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli­ cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES),...

The cost of Alzheimer's disease in China and re-estimation of costs worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Jianping; Wei, Cuibai; Chen, Shuoqi; Li, Fangyu; Tang, Yi; Qin, Wei; Zhao, Lina; Jin, Hongmei; Xu, Hui; Wang, Fen; Zhou, Aihong; Zuo, Xiumei; Wu, Liyong; Han, Ying; Han, Yue; Huang, Liyuan; Wang, Qi; Li, Dan; Chu, Changbiao; Shi, Lu; Gong, Min; Du, Yifeng; Zhang, Jiewen; Zhang, Junjian; Zhou, Chunkui; Lv, Jihui; Lv, Yang; Xie, Haiqun; Ji, Yong; Li, Fang; Yu, Enyan; Luo, Benyan; Wang, Yanjiang; Yang, Shanshan; Qu, Qiumin; Guo, Qihao; Liang, Furu; Zhang, Jintao; Tan, Lan; Shen, Lu; Zhang, Kunnan; Zhang, Jinbiao; Peng, Dantao; Tang, Muni; Lv, Peiyuan; Fang, Boyan; Chu, Lan; Jia, Longfei; Gauthier, Serge

2018-04-01

The socioeconomic costs of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in China and its impact on global economic burden remain uncertain. We collected data from 3098 patients with AD in 81 representative centers across China and estimated AD costs for individual patient and total patients in China in 2015. Based on this data, we re-estimated the worldwide costs of AD. The annual socioeconomic cost per patient was US $19,144.36, and total costs were US $167.74 billion in 2015. The annual total costs are predicted to reach US $507.49 billion in 2030 and US $1.89 trillion in 2050. Based on our results, the global estimates of costs for dementia were US $957.56 billion in 2015, and will be US $2.54 trillion in 2030, and US $9.12 trillion in 2050, much more than the predictions by the World Alzheimer Report 2015. China bears a heavy burden of AD costs, which greatly change the estimates of AD cost worldwide. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

1996-01-01

The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically

Estimating the costs of human space exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

1994-01-01

The plan for NASA's new exploration initiative has the following strategic themes: (1) incremental, logical evolutionary development; (2) economic viability; and (3) excellence in management. The cost estimation process is involved with all of these themes and they are completely dependent upon the engineering cost estimator for success. The purpose is to articulate the issues associated with beginning this major new government initiative, to show how NASA intends to resolve them, and finally to demonstrate the vital importance of a leadership role by the cost estimation community.

Latest NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM): Version VI

Science.gov (United States)

Mrozinski, Joe; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Fox, George; Ball, Gary

2014-01-01

The NASA Instrument Cost Model, NICM, is a suite of tools which allow for probabilistic cost estimation of NASA's space-flight instruments at both the system and subsystem level. NICM also includes the ability to perform cost by analogy as well as joint confidence level (JCL) analysis. The latest version of NICM, Version VI, was released in Spring 2014. This paper will focus on the new features released with NICM VI, which include: 1) The NICM-E cost estimating relationship, which is applicable for instruments flying on Explorer-like class missions; 2) The new cluster analysis ability which, alongside the results of the parametric cost estimation for the user's instrument, also provides a visualization of the user's instrument's similarity to previously flown instruments; and 3) includes new cost estimating relationships for in-situ instruments.

Nuclear shipping and waste disposal cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, C.R. II.

1977-11-01

Cost estimates for the shipping of spent fuel from the reactor, shipping of waste from the reprocessing plant, and disposal of reprocessing plant wastes have been made for five reactor types. The reactors considered are the light-water reactor (LWR), the mixed-oxide-fueled light-water reactor (MOX), the Canadian deuterium-uranium reactor (CANDU), the fast breeder reactor (FBR), and the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). In addition to the cost estimates, this report provides details on the bases and assumptions used to develop the cost estimates

Increased accuracy of cost-estimation using product configuration systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jeppe Bredahl; Hvam, Lars; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

This article describes an approach for utilizing Product Configuration Systems (PCS) for quantifying project costs in project-based companies. It presents a case study demonstrating a method of quantifying costs in a way that makes it possible to configure cost- and time estimates. Piecework costs......, material costs and sub-supplier costs are used as principle cost elements and linked to structural and process elements to facilitate configuration. The cost data are used by the PCS to generate fast and accurate cost-estimates, quotations, time estimates and cost summaries. The described cost...... quantification principles have been used in a Scandinavian SME (Small and Medium-sized Enterprise) since the 90’s, but have since 2011 been adopted to be used in a configuration system. A longitudinal case study was conducted to compare cost and time-estimation accuracy before and after implementation. We...

The System Cost Model: A tool for life cycle cost and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsu, K.; Lundeen, A.; Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

1996-01-01

In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors began development of the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, and transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing waste management facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new TSD facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. The SCM also provides transportation costs for DOE wastes. Transportation costs are provided for truck and rail and include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. A complement to the SCM is the System Cost Model-Risk (SCM-R) model, which provides relative Environmental, Safety, and Health (ES and H) risk information. A relative ES and H risk basis has been developed and applied by LITCO at the INEL. The risk basis is now being automated in the SCM-R to facilitate rapid risk analysis of system alternatives. The added risk functionality will allow combined cost and risk evaluation of EM alternatives

Capital cost models for geothermal power plants and fluid transmission systems. [GEOCOST

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schulte, S.C.

1977-09-01

The GEOCOST computer program is a simulation model for evaluating the economics of developing geothermal resources. The model was found to be both an accurate predictor of geothermal power production facility costs and a valid designer of such facilities. GEOCOST first designs a facility using thermodynamic optimization routines and then estimates costs for the selected design using cost models. Costs generated in this manner appear to correspond closely with detailed cost estimates made by industry planning groups. Through the use of this model, geothermal power production costs can be rapidly and accurately estimated for many alternative sites making the evaluation process much simpler yet more meaningful.

DC-Obesity: A New Model for Estimating Differential Lifetime Costs of Overweight and Obesity by Socioeconomic Status.

Science.gov (United States)

Sonntag, Diana; Jarczok, Marc N; Ali, Shehzad

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to quantify the magnitude of lifetime costs of overweight and obesity by socioeconomic status (SES). Differential Costs (DC)-Obesity is a new model that uses time-to-event simulation and the Markov modeling approach to compare lifetime excess costs of overweight and obesity among individuals with low, middle, and high SES. SES was measured by a multidimensional aggregated index based on level of education, occupational class, and income by using longitudinal data of the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP). Random-effects meta-analysis was applied to combine estimates of (in)direct costs of overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity brings attention to opposite socioeconomic gradients in lifetime costs due to obesity compared to overweight. Compared to individuals with obesity and high SES, individuals with obesity and low SES had lifetime excess costs that were two times higher (€8,526). In contrast, these costs were 20% higher in groups with overweight and high SES than in groups with overweight and low SES (€2,711). The results of this study indicate that SES may play a pivotal role in designing cost-effective and sustainable interventions to prevent and treat overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity may help public policy planners to make informed decisions about obesity programs targeted at vulnerable SES groups. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Estimating the Cost for Executing Business Processes in the Cloud

OpenAIRE

Vincenzo Ferme; Ana Ivanchikj; Cesare Pautasso

2016-01-01

Managing and running business processes in the Cloud changes how Workflow Management Systems (WfMSs) are deployed. Consequently when designing such WfMSs there is a need of determining the sweet spot in the performance vs. resource consumption trade off. While all Cloud providers agree on the pay as you go resource consumption model every provider uses a different cost model to gain a competitive edge. In this paper we present a novel method for estimating the infrastructure costs of running ...

Application of Korean Specific Data to Economic Cost Estimation by KOSCA-MACCS2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Sun Yeong; Jang, Seung-Cheol

2015-01-01

Default values for various data provided by MACCS2(MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System Version 2) such as population, weather, food, and economic cost are far from current domestic condition. In the case of economic cost data, related default values came from MACCS and WASH-1400. KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been developed a Korean-specific level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) code package based on MACCS2 to reflect domestic condition for off-site consequence analysis. To this end, we performed a study on the domestic specific technical issues for level 3 PSA, which are a dose conversion factor, food chain model, atmospheric dispersion model, and domestic-specific economic effect model. Based on the study, we developed a level 3 PSA code, so-called KOSCAMACCS2 (Korean-specific Off-Site Consequence Analysis based on MACCS2). The purpose of this paper is to introduce economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and application of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation with KOSCA-MACCS2. In this paper, we introduced economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and suggested the application plan of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation. To this end, we considered data sources for those economic cost variables to reflect Korea-specific features such as data by Statistics Korea or Bank of Korea etc. For the decontamination related variables, we applied foreign literatures to apply data, which are Extern-E and UNESCO Chernobyl Forum data. Based on the data resources we estimated data for input variables related to economic cost estimation

Application of Korean Specific Data to Economic Cost Estimation by KOSCA-MACCS2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, Sun Yeong; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

Default values for various data provided by MACCS2(MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System Version 2) such as population, weather, food, and economic cost are far from current domestic condition. In the case of economic cost data, related default values came from MACCS and WASH-1400. KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been developed a Korean-specific level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) code package based on MACCS2 to reflect domestic condition for off-site consequence analysis. To this end, we performed a study on the domestic specific technical issues for level 3 PSA, which are a dose conversion factor, food chain model, atmospheric dispersion model, and domestic-specific economic effect model. Based on the study, we developed a level 3 PSA code, so-called KOSCAMACCS2 (Korean-specific Off-Site Consequence Analysis based on MACCS2). The purpose of this paper is to introduce economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and application of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation with KOSCA-MACCS2. In this paper, we introduced economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and suggested the application plan of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation. To this end, we considered data sources for those economic cost variables to reflect Korea-specific features such as data by Statistics Korea or Bank of Korea etc. For the decontamination related variables, we applied foreign literatures to apply data, which are Extern-E and UNESCO Chernobyl Forum data. Based on the data resources we estimated data for input variables related to economic cost estimation.

Estimated annual cost of arterial hypertension treatment in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Dib, Murilo W; Riera, Rachel; Ferraz, Marcos B

2010-02-01

To estimate the direct annual cost of systemic arterial hypertension (SAH) treatment in Brazil's public and private health care systems, assess its economic impact on the total health care budget, and determine its proportion of the 2005 gross domestic product (GDP). A decision tree model was used to determine direct costs based on estimated use of various resources in SAH diagnosis and care, including treatment (medication and non-medication), complementary exams, doctor visits, nutritional assessments, and emergency room visits. Estimated direct annual cost of SAH treatment was approximately US$ 398.9 million for the public health care system and US$ 272.7 million for the private system, representing 0.08% of the 2005 GDP (ranging from 0.05% to 0.16%). With total health care expenses comprising about 7.6% of Brazil's GDP, this cost represented 1.11% of overall health care costs (0.62% to 2.06%)-1.43% of total expenses for the Unified Healthcare System (Sistema Unico de Saúde, SUS) (0.79% to 2.75%) and 0.83% of expenses for the private health care system (0.47% to 1.48%). Conclusion. To guarantee public or private health care based on the principles of universality and equality, with limited available resources, efforts must be focused on educating the population on prevention and treatment compliance in diseases such as SAH that require significant health resources.

Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glatzmaier, G.

2011-12-01

This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model – A User’s Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morrow, William R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Shehabi, Arman [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah Josephine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2015-08-01

The Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model is a cost-performance techno-economic model that estimates total large-scale manufacturing costs for necessary to produce a given product. It is designed to provide production cost estimates for technology researchers to help guide technology research and development towards an eventual cost-effective product. The model presented in this user’s guide is generic and can be tailored to the manufacturing of any product, including the generation of electricity (as a product). This flexibility, however, requires the user to develop the processes and process efficiencies that represents a full-scale manufacturing facility. The generic model is comprised of several modules that estimate variable costs (material, labor, and operating), fixed costs (capital & maintenance), financing structures (debt and equity financing), and tax implications (taxable income after equipment and building depreciation, debt interest payments, and expenses) of a notional manufacturing plant. A cash-flow method is used to estimate a selling price necessary for the manufacturing plant to recover its total cost of production. A levelized unit sales price ($ per unit of product) is determined by dividing the net-present value of the manufacturing plant’s expenses ($) by the net present value of its product output. A user defined production schedule drives the cash-flow method that determines the levelized unit price. In addition, an analyst can increase the levelized unit price to include a gross profit margin to estimate a product sales price. This model allows an analyst to understand the effect that any input variables could have on the cost of manufacturing a product. In addition, the tool is able to perform sensitivity analysis, which can be used to identify the key variables and assumptions that have the greatest influence on the levelized costs. This component is intended to help technology researchers focus their research attention on tasks

Development of Cost Estimation Methodology of Decommissioning for PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Il; Yoo, Yeon Jae; Lim, Yong Kyu; Chang, Hyeon Sik; Song, Geun Ho

2013-01-01

The permanent closure of nuclear power plant should be conducted with the strict laws and the profound planning including the cost and schedule estimation because the plant is very contaminated with the radioactivity. In Korea, there are two types of the nuclear power plant. One is the pressurized light water reactor (PWR) and the other is the pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) called as CANDU reactor. Also, the 50% of the operating nuclear power plant in Korea is the PWRs which were originally designed by CE (Combustion Engineering). There have been experiences about the decommissioning of Westinghouse type PWR, but are few experiences on that of CE type PWR. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop the cost estimation methodology and evaluate technical level of decommissioning for the application to CE type PWR based on the system engineering technology. The aim of present study is to develop the cost estimation methodology of decommissioning for application to PWR. Through the study, the following conclusions are obtained: · Based on the system engineering, the decommissioning work can be classified as Set, Subset, Task, Subtask and Work cost units. · The Set and Task structure are grouped as 29 Sets and 15 Task s, respectively. · The final result shows the cost and project schedule for the project control and risk management. · The present results are preliminary and should be refined and improved based on the modeling and cost data reflecting available technology and current costs like labor and waste data

Cost model validation: a technical and cultural approach

Science.gov (United States)

Hihn, J.; Rosenberg, L.; Roust, K.; Warfield, K.

2001-01-01

This paper summarizes how JPL's parametric mission cost model (PMCM) has been validated using both formal statistical methods and a variety of peer and management reviews in order to establish organizational acceptance of the cost model estimates.

The Hospitalization Costs of Diabetes and Hypertension Complications in Zimbabwe: Estimations and Correlations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mutsa P. Mutowo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. Treating complications associated with diabetes and hypertension imposes significant costs on health care systems. This study estimated the hospitalization costs for inpatients in a public hospital in Zimbabwe. Methods. The study was retrospective and utilized secondary data from medical records. Total hospitalization costs were estimated using generalized linear models. Results. The median cost and interquartile range (IQR for patients with diabetes, $994 (385–1553 mean $1319 (95% CI: 981–1657, was higher than patients with hypertension, $759 (494–1147 mean $914 (95% CI: 825–1003. Female patients aged below 65 years with diabetes had the highest estimated mean costs ($1467 (95% CI: 1177–1828. Wound care had the highest estimated mean cost of all procedures, $2884 (95% CI: 2004–4149 for patients with diabetes and $2239 (95% CI: 1589–3156 for patients with hypertension. Age below 65 years, medical procedures (amputation, wound care, dialysis, and physiotherapy, the presence of two or more comorbidities, and being prescribed two or more drugs were associated with significantly higher hospitalization costs. Conclusion. Our estimated costs could be used to evaluate and improve current inpatient treatment and management of patients with diabetes and hypertension and determine the most cost-effective interventions to prevent complications and comorbidities.

Cost Engineering Techniques and Their Applicability for Cost Estimation of Organic Rankine Cycle Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanne Lemmens

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The potential of organic Rankine cycle (ORC systems is acknowledged by both considerable research and development efforts and an increasing number of applications. Most research aims at improving ORC systems through technical performance optimization of various cycle architectures and working fluids. The assessment and optimization of technical feasibility is at the core of ORC development. Nonetheless, economic feasibility is often decisive when it comes down to considering practical instalments, and therefore an increasing number of publications include an estimate of the costs of the designed ORC system. Various methods are used to estimate ORC costs but the resulting values are rarely discussed with respect to accuracy and validity. The aim of this paper is to provide insight into the methods used to estimate these costs and open the discussion about the interpretation of these results. A review of cost engineering practices shows there has been a long tradition of industrial cost estimation. Several techniques have been developed, but the expected accuracy range of the best techniques used in research varies between 10% and 30%. The quality of the estimates could be improved by establishing up-to-date correlations for the ORC industry in particular. Secondly, the rapidly growing ORC cost literature is briefly reviewed. A graph summarizing the estimated ORC investment costs displays a pattern of decreasing costs for increasing power output. Knowledge on the actual costs of real ORC modules and projects remains scarce. Finally, the investment costs of a known heat recovery ORC system are discussed and the methodologies and accuracies of several approaches are demonstrated using this case as benchmark. The best results are obtained with factorial estimation techniques such as the module costing technique, but the accuracies may diverge by up to +30%. Development of correlations and multiplication factors for ORC technology in particular is

Cost Estimates for the Decontamination and Decommissioning of Eight ORNL Buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogan, M.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) contains a number of buildings that are antiquated and no longer used. These buildings historically were used for the production of atomic weapons and often remain contaminated with radioactive materials. Certain costs and risks are associated with the long-term stewardship of the buildings. One way to reduce these liabilities is to eliminate the buildings that are no longer in use and are not expected to be used in the future. Some of these buildings at ORNL are located in an area known as 'Isotope Circle'. From this area, eight buildings that are expected to be decontaminated and decommissioned (D and D) in the next five to ten years were chosen to have cost estimates completed. The specific facilities are Buildings 3030, 3031, 3118, 3032, 3033, 3033 Annex, 3034, and 3093. There are many challenges for estimating the costs to D and D buildings potentially contaminated with radionuclides. Each building is unique, has various types and levels of contamination, and (as in this case) often lacks up-to-date information. Because of these limitations, order-of- magnitude cost estimates for each of the eight ORNL buildings were completed using parametric cost modeling software known as RACER TM (Remedial Action Cost Engineering and Requirements System). This type of cost estimate is useful for screening technical concepts and is used for budgetary planning. For the eight buildings evaluated in this study, the total cost to D and D was estimated to be nearly $6 M. This value includes the direct cost of approximately $3.5 M to complete D and D and $2.5 M in cost markups. Also, assuming the actual project does not begin until the year 2010, this total cost is escalated to almost $6.7 M, which accounts for expected inflation. Although the cost estimates in this study were expected to have a wide range in accuracy, there are various factors that could impact these estimates in a negative or positive fashion

Estimation of CO2 Transport Costs in South Korea Using a Techno-Economic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kwangu Kang

2015-03-01

Full Text Available In this study, a techno–economic model was used to calculate the costs of CO2 transport and specify the major equipment required for transport in order to demonstrate and implement CO2 sequestration in the offshore sediments of South Korea. First, three different carbon capture and storage demonstration scenarios were set up involving the use of three CO2 capture plants and one offshore storage site. Each transport scenario considered both the pipeline transport and ship transport options. The temperature and pressure conditions of CO2 in each transport stage were determined from engineering and economic viewpoints, and the corresponding specifications and equipment costs were calculated. The transport costs for a 1 MtCO2/year transport rate were estimated to be US$33/tCO2 and US$28/tCO2 for a pipeline transport of ~530 km and ship transport of ~724 km, respectively. Through the economies of scale effect, the pipeline and ship transport costs for a transport rate of 3 MtCO2/year were reduced to approximately US$21/tCO2 and US$23/tCO2, respectively. A CO2 hub terminal did not significantly reduce the cost because of the short distance from the hub to the storage site and the small number of captured sources.

Development of computer program for estimating decommissioning cost - 59037

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hak-Soo; Park, Jong-Kil

2012-01-01

The programs for estimating the decommissioning cost have been developed for many different purposes and applications. The estimation of decommissioning cost is required a large amount of data such as unit cost factors, plant area and its inventory, waste treatment, etc. These make it difficult to use manual calculation or typical spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel. The cost estimation for eventual decommissioning of nuclear power plants is a prerequisite for safe, timely and cost-effective decommissioning. To estimate the decommissioning cost more accurately and systematically, KHNP, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd, developed a decommissioning cost estimating computer program called 'DeCAT-Pro', which is Decommission-ing Cost Assessment Tool - Professional. (Hereinafter called 'DeCAT') This program allows users to easily assess the decommissioning cost with various decommissioning options. Also, this program provides detailed reporting for decommissioning funding requirements as well as providing detail project schedules, cash-flow, staffing plan and levels, and waste volumes by waste classifications and types. KHNP is planning to implement functions for estimating the plant inventory using 3-D technology and for classifying the conditions of radwaste disposal and transportation automatically. (authors)

AX Tank Farm waste retrieval alternatives cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krieg, S.A.

1998-01-01

This report presents the estimated costs associated with retrieval of the wastes from the four tanks in AX Tank Farm. The engineering cost estimates developed for this report are based on previous cost data prepared for Project W-320 and the HTI 241-C-106 Heel Retrieval System. The costs presented in this report address only the retrieval of the wastes from the four AX Farm tanks. This includes costs for equipment procurement, fabrication, installation, and operation to retrieve the wastes. The costs to modify the existing plant equipment and systems to support the retrieval equipment are also included. The estimates do not include operational costs associated with pumping the waste out of the waste receiver tank (241-AY-102) between AX Farm retrieval campaigns or transportation, processing, and disposal of the retrieved waste

Probabilistic cost estimating of nuclear power plant construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finch, W.C.; Perry, L.W.; Postula, F.D.

1978-01-01

This paper shows how to identify and isolate cost accounts by developing probability trees down to component levels as justified by value and cost uncertainty. Examples are given of the procedure for assessing uncertainty in all areas contributing to cost: design, factory equipment pricing, and field labor and materials. The method of combining these individual uncertainties is presented so that the cost risk can be developed for components, systems and the total plant construction project. Formats which enable management to use the probabilistic cost estimate information for business planning and risk control are illustrated. Topics considered include code estimate performance, cost allocation, uncertainty encoding, probabilistic cost distributions, and interpretation. Effective cost control of nuclear power plant construction projects requires insight into areas of greatest cost uncertainty and a knowledge of the factors which can cause costs to vary from the single value estimates. It is concluded that probabilistic cost estimating can provide the necessary assessment of uncertainties both as to the cause and the consequences

Estimation of cost-effectiveness of the Finnish electricity distribution utilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria; Svento, Rauli

2008-01-01

This paper examines the cost-effectiveness of Finnish electricity distribution utilities. We estimate several panel data stochastic frontier specifications using both Cobb-Douglas and Translog model specifications. The conventional models are extended in order to model observed heterogeneity explicitly in the cost frontier models. The true fixed effects model has been used as a representative of the models which account for unobserved heterogeneity and extended conventional random effect models have been used in analysing the impact of observed heterogeneity. A comparison between the conventional random effects model and models where heterogeneity component is entered either into the mean or into the variance of the inefficiency term shows that relative efficiency scores diminish when heterogeneity is added to the analysis. The true fixed effects model on the other hand gives clearly smaller inefficiency scores than random effects models. In the paper we also show that the relative inefficiency scores and rankings are not sensitive to the cost function specification. Our analysis points out the importance of the efficient use of the existing distribution network. The economies of scale results suggest that firms could reduce their operating costs by using networks more efficiently. According to our results average size firms which have high load factors are the most efficient ones. All firms have unused capacities so that they can improve cost-effectiveness rather by increasing the average distributed volumes than by mergers

Estimation of cost-effectiveness of the Finnish electricity distribution utilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria; Svento, Rauli [Department of Economics, University of Oulu (Finland)

2008-03-15

This paper examines the cost-effectiveness of Finnish electricity distribution utilities. We estimate several panel data stochastic frontier specifications using both Cobb-Douglas and Translog model specifications. The conventional models are extended in order to model observed heterogeneity explicitly in the cost frontier models. The true fixed effects model has been used as a representative of the models which account for unobserved heterogeneity and extended conventional random effect models have been used in analysing the impact of observed heterogeneity. A comparison between the conventional random effects model and models where heterogeneity component is entered either into the mean or into the variance of the inefficiency term shows that relative efficiency scores diminish when heterogeneity is added to the analysis. The true fixed effects model on the other hand gives clearly smaller inefficiency scores than random effects models. In the paper we also show that the relative inefficiency scores and rankings are not sensitive to the cost function specification. Our analysis points out the importance of the efficient use of the existing distribution network. The economies of scale results suggest that firms could reduce their operating costs by using networks more efficiently. According to our results average size firms which have high load factors are the most efficient ones. All firms have unused capacities so that they can improve cost-effectiveness rather by increasing the average distributed volumes than by mergers. (author)

Cost Estimating Cases: Educational Tools for Cost Analysts

Science.gov (United States)

1993-09-01

only appropriate documentation should be provided. In other words, students should not submit all of the documentation possible using ACEIT , only that...case was their lack of understanding of the ACEIT software used to conduct the estimate. Specifically, many students misinterpreted the cost...estimating relationships (CERs) embedded in the 49 software. Additionally, few of the students were able to properly organize the ACEIT documentation output

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of stroke units in France compared with conventional care.

Science.gov (United States)

Launois, R; Giroud, M; Mégnigbêto, A C; Le Lay, K; Présenté, G; Mahagne, M H; Durand, I; Gaudin, A F

2004-03-01

The incidence of stroke in France is estimated at between 120 000 and 150 000 cases per year. This modeling study assessed the clinical and economic benefits of establishing specialized stroke units compared with conventional care. Data from the Dijon stroke registry were used to determine healthcare trajectories according to the degree of autonomy and organization of patient care. The relative risks of death or institutionalization or death or dependence after passage through a stroke unit were compared with conventional care. These risks were then inserted with the costing data into a Markov model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of stroke units. Patients cared for in a stroke unit survive more trimesters without sequelae in the 5 years after hospitalization than those cared for conventionally (11.6 versus 8.28 trimesters). The mean cost per patient at 5 years was estimated at 30 983 for conventional care and 34 638 in a stroke unit. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for stroke units of 1359 per year of life gained without disability was estimated. The cost-effectiveness ratio for stroke units is much lower than the threshold (53 400 ) of acceptability recognized by the international scientific community. This finding justifies organizational changes in the management of stroke patients and the establishment of stroke units in France.

48 CFR 1852.216-74 - Estimated cost and fixed fee.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... and Clauses 1852.216-74 Estimated cost and fixed fee. As prescribed in 1816.307-70(b), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Fixed Fee (DEC 1991) The estimated cost of this contract is ______ exclusive of the fixed fee of ______. The total estimated cost and fixed fee is ______. (End of clause) [62...

Cost-estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R.

1993-01-01

Various advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include several advanced light water reactors as well as the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor and the advanced liquid-metal reactor. One measure-of the attractiveness of a new concept is cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electric generation. In order to make reasonable comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules and assumptions must be applied when developing cost estimates. This paper describes the cost-estimate guidelines developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to be used in developing cost estimates for the advanced nuclear reactors and how these guidelines relate to the DOE cost verification process

Power plant cost estimates put to the test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowley, J.H.

1978-01-01

The growth in standards for nuclear applications and the impact of these codes and standards on the cost of nuclear power plants is described. The preparation of cost estimates and reasons for apparent discrepancies are discussed. Consistent estimates of nuclear power plant costs have been prepared in the USA for over a decade. They show that the difference in capital costs between nuclear and coal fired plants is narrowing and that when total generating costs are calculated nuclear power is substantially cheaper. (UK)

Life cycle cost estimation and systems analysis of Waste Management Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shropshire, D.; Feizollahi, F.

1995-01-01

This paper presents general conclusions from application of a system cost analysis method developed by the United States Department of Energy (DOE), Waste Management Division (WM), Waste Management Facilities Costs Information (WMFCI) program. The WMFCI method has been used to assess the DOE complex-wide management of radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes. The Idaho Engineering Laboratory, along with its subcontractor Morrison Knudsen Corporation, has been responsible for developing and applying the WMFCI cost analysis method. The cost analyses are based on system planning level life-cycle costs. The costs for life-cycle waste management activities estimated by WMFCI range from bench-scale testing and developmental work needed to design and construct a facility, facility permitting and startup, operation and maintenance, to the final decontamination, decommissioning, and closure of the facility. For DOE complex-wide assessments, cost estimates have been developed at the treatment, storage, and disposal module level and rolled up for each DOE installation. Discussions include conclusions reached by studies covering complex-wide consolidation of treatment, storage, and disposal facilities, system cost modeling, system costs sensitivity, system cost optimization, and the integration of WM waste with the environmental restoration and decontamination and decommissioning secondary wastes

Aircraft bi-level life cycle cost estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curan, R.

2015-01-01

n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost,

Estimating costs in the economic evaluation of medical technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Luce, B R; Elixhauser, A

1990-01-01

The complexities and nuances of evaluating the costs associated with providing medical technologies are often underestimated by analysts engaged in economic evaluations. This article describes the theoretical underpinnings of cost estimation, emphasizing the importance of accounting for opportunity costs and marginal costs. The various types of costs that should be considered in an analysis are described; a listing of specific cost elements may provide a helpful guide to analysis. The process of identifying and estimating costs is detailed, and practical recommendations for handling the challenges of cost estimation are provided. The roles of sensitivity analysis and discounting are characterized, as are determinants of the types of costs to include in an analysis. Finally, common problems facing the analyst are enumerated with suggestions for managing these problems.

Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, Grant; Heptonstall, Phil; Gross, Robert; Handley, David

2013-01-01

Current UK Government support for nuclear power has in part been informed by cost estimates that suggest that electricity from new nuclear power stations will be competitive with alternative low carbon generation options. The evidence and analysis presented in this paper suggests that the capital cost estimates for nuclear power that are being used to inform these projections rely on costs escalating over the pre-construction and construction phase of the new build programme at a level significantly below those that have been experienced by past US and European programmes. This paper applies observed construction time and cost escalation rates to the published estimates of capital costs for new nuclear plant in the UK and calculates the potential impact on levelised cost per unit of electricity produced. The results suggest that levelised cost may turn out to be significantly higher than expected which in turn has important implications for policy, both in general terms of the potential costs to consumers and more specifically for negotiations around the level of policy support and contractual arrangements offered to individual projects through the proposed contract for difference strike price. -- Highlights: •Nuclear power projects costs can rise substantially during the construction period. •Pre-construction and construction time can be much longer than anticipated. •Adjusting estimates for observed experience increases levelised costs significantly. •Higher costs suggest that more policy support than envisaged may be required

Fuel Cell System for Transportation -- 2005 Cost Estimate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wheeler, D.

2006-10-01

Independent review report of the methodology used by TIAX to estimate the cost of producing PEM fuel cells using 2005 cell stack technology. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program Manager asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to commission an independent review of the 2005 TIAX cost analysis for fuel cell production. The NREL Systems Integrator is responsible for conducting independent reviews of progress toward meeting the DOE Hydrogen Program (the Program) technical targets. An important technical target of the Program is the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell cost in terms of dollars per kilowatt ($/kW). The Program's Multi-Year Program Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan established $125/kW as the 2005 technical target. Over the last several years, the Program has contracted with TIAX, LLC (TIAX) to produce estimates of the high volume cost of PEM fuel cell production for transportation use. Since no manufacturer is yet producing PEM fuel cells in the quantities needed for an initial hydrogen-based transportation economy, these estimates are necessary for DOE to gauge progress toward meeting its targets. For a PEM fuel cell system configuration developed by Argonne National Laboratory, TIAX estimated the total cost to be $108/kW, based on assumptions of 500,000 units per year produced with 2005 cell stack technology, vertical integration of cell stack manufacturing, and balance-of-plant (BOP) components purchased from a supplier network. Furthermore, TIAX conducted a Monte Carlo analysis by varying ten key parameters over a wide range of values and estimated with 98% certainty that the mean PEM fuel cell system cost would be below DOE's 2005 target of $125/kW. NREL commissioned DJW TECHNOLOGY, LLC to form an Independent Review Team (the Team) of industry fuel cell experts and to evaluate the cost estimation process and the results reported by TIAX. The results of

Development of a simple estimation tool for LMFBR construction cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshida, Kazuo; Kinoshita, Izumi

1999-01-01

A simple tool for estimating the construction costs of liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors (LMFBRs), 'Simple Cost' was developed in this study. Simple Cost is based on a new estimation formula that can reduce the amount of design data required to estimate construction costs. Consequently, Simple cost can be used to estimate the construction costs of innovative LMFBR concepts for which detailed design has not been carried out. The results of test calculation show that Simple Cost provides cost estimations equivalent to those obtained with conventional methods within the range of plant power from 325 to 1500 MWe. Sensitivity analyses for typical design parameters were conducted using Simple Cost. The effects of four major parameters - reactor vessel diameter, core outlet temperature, sodium handling area and number of secondary loops - on the construction costs of LMFBRs were evaluated quantitatively. The results show that the reduction of sodium handling area is particularly effective in reducing construction costs. (author)

Mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties and damage cost through regression analysis using matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urrutia, J D; Bautista, L A; Baccay, E B

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties such as death, number of injured persons, affected families and total cost of damage. To quantify the direct damages from earthquakes to human beings and properties given the magnitude, intensity, depth of focus, location of epicentre and time duration, the regression models were made. The researchers formulated models through regression analysis using matrices and used α = 0.01. The study considered thirty destructive earthquakes that hit the Philippines from the inclusive years 1968 to 2012. Relevant data about these said earthquakes were obtained from Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. Data on damages and casualties were gathered from the records of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. This study will be of great value in emergency planning, initiating and updating programs for earthquake hazard reduction in the Philippines, which is an earthquake-prone country.

Optimal replacement time estimation for machines and equipment based on cost function

OpenAIRE

J. Šebo; J. Buša; P. Demeč; J. Svetlík

2013-01-01

The article deals with a multidisciplinary issue of estimating the optimal replacement time for the machines. Considered categories of machines, for which the optimization method is usable, are of the metallurgical and engineering production. Different models of cost function are considered (both with one and two variables). Parameters of the models were calculated through the least squares method. Models testing show that all are good enough, so for estimation of optimal replacement time is ...

Calculating the Unit Cost Factors for Decommissioning Cost Estimation of the Nuclear Research Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Kwan Seong; Lee, Dong Gyu; Jung, Chong Hun; Lee, Kune Woo

2006-01-01

The estimated decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor is calculated by applying a unit cost factor-based engineering cost calculation method on which classification of decommissioning works fitted with the features and specifications of decommissioning objects and establishment of composition factors are based. Decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor is composed of labor cost, equipment and materials cost. Labor cost of decommissioning costs in decommissioning works are calculated on the basis of working time consumed in decommissioning objects. In this paper, the unit cost factors and work difficulty factors which are needed to calculate the labor cost in estimating decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor are derived and figured out.

Estimating and understanding DOE waste management costs'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, J.S.; Sherick, M.J.

1995-01-01

This paper examines costs associated with cleaning up the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) nuclear facilities, with particular emphasis on the waste management program. Life-cycle waste management costs have been compiled and reported in the DOE Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR). Waste management costs are a critical issue for DOE because of the current budget constraints. The DOE sites are struggling to accomplish their environmental management objectives given funding scenarios that are well below anticipated waste management costs. Through the BEMR process, DOE has compiled complex-wide cleanup cost estimates and has begun analysis of these costs with respect to alternative waste management scenarios and policy strategies. From this analysis, DOE is attempting to identify the major cost drivers and prioritize environmental management activities to achieve maximum utilization of existing funding. This paper provides an overview of the methodology DOE has used to estimate and analyze some waste management costs, including the key data requirements and uncertainties

Methodology for modelling plug-in electric vehicles in the power system and cost estimates for a system with either smart or dumb electric vehicles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kiviluoma, Juha; Meibom, Peter

2011-01-01

The article estimates the costs of plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) in a future power system as well as the benefits from smart charging and discharging EVs (smart EVs). To arrive in a good estimate, a generation planning model was used to create power plant portfolios, which were operated in a more...... detailed unit commitment and dispatch model. In both models the charging and discharging of EVs is optimised together with the rest of the power system. Neither the system cost nor the market price of electricity for EVs turned out to be high (36–263 €/vehicle/year in the analysed scenarios). Most...

78 FR 61227 - Public Assistance Cost Estimating Format for Large Projects

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-03

... equipment. The base cost (construction costs) plus nonconstruction costs equal the total eligible cost... included the estimated base cost plus the estimated nonconstruction costs. Under the traditional method... total cost of completing the project. This ``forward- pricing'' methodology provides an estimate of the...

IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Cost Estimate Summary (Leveraged NDC Case).

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, James M.; Prescott, Ryan; Dawson, Jericah M.; Huelskamp, Robert M.

2014-11-01

Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, based on leveraging a fully funded, Sandia executed NDC Modernization project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

Support to LANL: Cost estimation. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for Cost Estimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing cost estimates for DOE planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors

The ASAC Flight Segment and Network Cost Models

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, Bruce J.; Lee, David A.; Retina, Nusrat; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Malone, Brett; Hall, Stephen G.; Houser, Scott A.

1997-01-01

To assist NASA in identifying research art, with the greatest potential for improving the air transportation system, two models were developed as part of its Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC Flight Segment Cost Model (FSCM) is used to predict aircraft trajectories, resource consumption, and variable operating costs for one or more flight segments. The Network Cost Model can either summarize the costs for a network of flight segments processed by the FSCM or can be used to independently estimate the variable operating costs of flying a fleet of equipment given the number of departures and average flight stage lengths.

The Practice of Cost Estimation for Decommissioning of Nuclear Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidova, Ivana; Desecures, Sylvain; Lexow, Thomas; Buonarroti, Stefano; Marini, Giuseppe; Pescatore, Claudio; Rehak, Ivan; Weber, Inge; ); Daniska, Vladimir; Linan, Jorge Borque; Caroll, Simon; Hedberg, Bjoern; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Laguardia, Thomas S.; Ridpath, Andy

2015-01-01

Decommissioning of both commercial and R and D nuclear facilities is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, and the largest of such industrial decommissioning projects could command considerable budgets. Several approaches are currently being used for decommissioning cost estimations, with an international culture developing in the field. The present cost estimation practice guide was prepared in order to offer international actors specific guidance in preparing quality cost and schedule estimates to support detailed budgeting for the preparation of decommissioning plans, for the securing of funds and for decommissioning implementation. This guide is based on current practices and standards in a number of NEA member countries and aims to help consolidate the practice and process of decommissioning cost estimation so as to make it more widely understood. It offers a useful reference for the practitioner and for training programmes. The remainder of report is divided into the following chapters: - Chapter 2 covers the purpose and nature of decommissioning cost estimates, approaches to cost estimation and the major elements of a cost estimate. - Chapter 3 examines the development of the integrated schedule of the activity-dependent work scope and the determination of the project critical path. - Chapter 4 describes the attributes of a quality assurance programme applicable to cost estimation and the use and cautions of benchmarking the estimate from other estimates or actual costs. - Chapter 5 describes the pyramidal structure of the report, and the scope and content that should be included in the cost study report to ensure consistency and transparency in the estimate underpinnings. - Chapter 6 provides some observations, conclusions and recommendations on the use of this guide

Modelling the cost effectiveness of antidepressant treatment in primary care.

Science.gov (United States)

Revicki, D A; Brown, R E; Palmer, W; Bakish, D; Rosser, W W; Anton, S F; Feeny, D

1995-12-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of nefazodone compared with imipramine or fluoxetine in treating women with major depressive disorder. Clinical decision analysis and a Markov state-transition model were used to estimate the lifetime health outcomes and medical costs of 3 antidepressant treatments. The model, which represents ideal primary care practice, compares treatment with nefazodone to treatment with either imipramine or fluoxetine. The economic analysis was based on the healthcare system of the Canadian province of Ontario, and considered only direct medical costs. Health outcomes were expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were in 1993 Canadian dollars ($Can; $Can1 = $US0.75, September 1995). Incremental cost-utility ratios were calculated comparing the relative lifetime discounted medical costs and QALYs associated with nefazodone with those of imipramine or fluoxetine. Data for constructing the model and estimating necessary parameters were derived from the medical literature, clinical trial data, and physician judgement. Data included information on: Ontario primary care physicians' clinical management of major depression; medical resource use and costs; probabilities of recurrence of depression; suicide rates; compliance rates; and health utilities. Estimates of utilities for depression-related hypothetical health states were obtained from patients with major depression (n = 70). Medical costs and QALYs were discounted to present value using a 5% rate. Sensitivity analyses tested the assumptions of the model by varying the discount rate, depression recurrence rates, compliance rates, and the duration of the model. The base case analysis found that nefazodone treatment costs $Can1447 less per patient than imipramine treatment (discounted lifetime medical costs were $Can50,664 vs $Can52,111) and increases the number of QALYs by 0.72 (13.90 vs 13.18). Nefazodone treatment costs $Can14 less than fluoxetine

An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirko Guerrieri

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy. In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guerrieri, M.; Fedrizzi, M.; Antonucci, F.; Pallottino, F.; Sperandio, G.; Pagano, M.; Figorilli, S.; Menesatti, P.; Costa, C.

2016-07-01

The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery) were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages) and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy). In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guerrieri, M.; Fedrizzi, M.; Antonucci, F.; Pallottino, F.; Sperandio, G.; Pagano, M.; Figorilli, S.; Menesatti, P.; Costa, C.

2016-01-01

The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery) were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages) and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy). In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM): Capabilities and Results

Science.gov (United States)

McAfee, Julie; Culver, George; Naderi, Mahmoud

2011-01-01

NAFCOM is a parametric estimating tool for space hardware. Uses cost estimating relationships (CERs) which correlate historical costs to mission characteristics to predict new project costs. It is based on historical NASA and Air Force space projects. It is intended to be used in the very early phases of a development project. NAFCOM can be used at the subsystem or component levels and estimates development and production costs. NAFCOM is applicable to various types of missions (crewed spacecraft, uncrewed spacecraft, and launch vehicles). There are two versions of the model: a government version that is restricted and a contractor releasable version.

Project cost estimation techniques used by most emerging building ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Keywords: Cost estimation, estimation methods, emerging contractors, tender. Dr Solly Matshonisa .... historical cost data (data from cost accounting records and/ ..... emerging contractors in tendering. Table 13: Use of project risk management versus responsibility: expected. Internal document analysis. Checklist analysis.

48 CFR 1852.216-85 - Estimated cost and award fee.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... and Clauses 1852.216-85 Estimated cost and award fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(e), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Award Fee (SEP 1993) The estimated cost of this contract is $___. The... cost, base fee, and maximum award fee are $___. (End of clause) Alternate I (SEP 1993). As prescribed...

Molten Salt Power Tower Cost Model for the System Advisor Model (SAM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turchi, C. S.; Heath, G. A.

2013-02-01

This report describes a component-based cost model developed for molten-salt power tower solar power plants. The cost model was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), using data from several prior studies, including a contracted analysis from WorleyParsons Group, which is included herein as an Appendix. The WorleyParsons' analysis also estimated material composition and mass for the plant to facilitate a life cycle analysis of the molten salt power tower technology. Details of the life cycle assessment have been published elsewhere. The cost model provides a reference plant that interfaces with NREL's System Advisor Model or SAM. The reference plant assumes a nominal 100-MWe (net) power tower running with a nitrate salt heat transfer fluid (HTF). Thermal energy storage is provided by direct storage of the HTF in a two-tank system. The design assumes dry-cooling. The model includes a spreadsheet that interfaces with SAM via the Excel Exchange option in SAM. The spreadsheet allows users to estimate the costs of different-size plants and to take into account changes in commodity prices. This report and the accompanying Excel spreadsheet can be downloaded at https://sam.nrel.gov/cost.

Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, C.R. II.

1986-07-01

To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies

Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, C.R. II.

1987-07-01

To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies

Radium removal processes capital and operating cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, F.J.

1979-09-01

An estimate of the fixed capital and operating costs for two alternative processes for the removal of dissolved Ra-226 from uranium mill effluent in Elliot Lake, Ontario is presented. Process 1 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by coagulation, flocculation and sedimentation. Process 2 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by gravity media filtration, sand filter backwashing and sedimentation. Cost estimates were prepared for 18 different plant configurations designed to treat 1000 and 4000 imperial gallons per minute (ig/m) of effluent, 24 hrs per day, 7 days per week and 365 days per year with several equipment options. The estimated fixed capital costs for plants equipped with gravity filters were less than those equipped with circular clarifiers. The capital costs ranged from $552,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $2,578,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m. Estimated annual operating costs, based on a plant life of 10 years, ranged from $298,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $1,061,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m

Bus Lifecycle Cost Model for Federal Land Management Agencies.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-30

The Bus Lifecycle Cost Model is a spreadsheet-based planning tool that estimates capital, operating, and maintenance costs for various bus types over the full lifecycle of the vehicle. The model is based on a number of operating characteristics, incl...

MONITORED GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY LIFE CYCLE COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS DOCUMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

R.E. Sweeney

2001-01-01

The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost (LCC) estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA) , License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

Monitored Geologic Repository Life Cycle Cost Estimate Assumptions Document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sweeney, R.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA), License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

1993-05-01

Several advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include the Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors, the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor and the Advanced Light Water Reactors. One measure of the attractiveness of a new concept is its cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electrical generation. This report provides a common starting point, whereby the cost estimates for the various power plants to be considered are developed with common assumptions and ground rules. Comparisons can then be made on a consistent basis. This is the second update of these cost estimate guidelines. Changes have been made to make the guidelines more current (January 1, 1992) and in response to suggestions made as a result of the use of the previous report. The principal changes are that the reference site has been changed from a generic Northeast (Middletown) site to a more central site (EPRI's East/West Central site) and that reference bulk commodity prices and labor productivity rates have been added. This report is designed to provide a framework for the preparation and reporting of costs. The cost estimates will consist of the overnight construction cost, the total plant capital cost, the operation and maintenance costs, the fuel costs, decommissioning costs and the power production or busbar generation cost

The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sundaram, Meenakshi

2005-01-01

NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

An Environmentally Oriented Constructive Cost Model In Information ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A model was designed to assist software developers in Nigeria to estimate software effort, duration and cost as a result of the difficulties in understanding the parameters of the traditional Constructive Cost Model II (COCOMO II) , which was designed for a specif ic environment, using Source Lines of Code (SLOC) . Results ...

Cost of Equity Estimation in Fuel and Energy Sector Companies Based on CAPM

Science.gov (United States)

Kozieł, Diana; Pawłowski, Stanisław; Kustra, Arkadiusz

2018-03-01

The article presents cost of equity estimation of capital groups from the fuel and energy sector, listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The objective of the article was to perform a valuation of equity with the application of CAPM, based on actual financial data and stock exchange data and to carry out a sensitivity analysis of such cost, depending on the financing structure of the entity. The objective of the article formulated in this manner has determined its' structure. It focuses on presentation of substantive analyses related to the core of equity and methods of estimating its' costs, with special attention given to the CAPM. In the practical section, estimation of cost was performed according to the CAPM methodology, based on the example of leading fuel and energy companies, such as Tauron GE and PGE. Simultaneously, sensitivity analysis of such cost was performed depending on the structure of financing the company's operation.

Cost of Equity Estimation in Fuel and Energy Sector Companies Based on CAPM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kozieł Diana

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents cost of equity estimation of capital groups from the fuel and energy sector, listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. The objective of the article was to perform a valuation of equity with the application of CAPM, based on actual financial data and stock exchange data and to carry out a sensitivity analysis of such cost, depending on the financing structure of the entity. The objective of the article formulated in this manner has determined its’ structure. It focuses on presentation of substantive analyses related to the core of equity and methods of estimating its’ costs, with special attention given to the CAPM. In the practical section, estimation of cost was performed according to the CAPM methodology, based on the example of leading fuel and energy companies, such as Tauron GE and PGE. Simultaneously, sensitivity analysis of such cost was performed depending on the structure of financing the company’s operation.

SOFTCOST - DEEP SPACE NETWORK SOFTWARE COST MODEL

Science.gov (United States)

Tausworthe, R. C.

1994-01-01

The early-on estimation of required resources and a schedule for the development and maintenance of software is usually the least precise aspect of the software life cycle. However, it is desirable to make some sort of an orderly and rational attempt at estimation in order to plan and organize an implementation effort. The Software Cost Estimation Model program, SOFTCOST, was developed to provide a consistent automated resource and schedule model which is more formalized than the often used guesswork model based on experience, intuition, and luck. SOFTCOST was developed after the evaluation of a number of existing cost estimation programs indicated that there was a need for a cost estimation program with a wide range of application and adaptability to diverse kinds of software. SOFTCOST combines several software cost models found in the open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms that compensate for nearly fifty implementation factors relative to size of the task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment, and difficulty of the task. SOFTCOST produces mean and variance estimates of software size, implementation productivity, recommended staff level, probable duration, amount of computer resources required, and amount and cost of software documentation. Since the confidence level for a project using mean estimates is small, the user is given the opportunity to enter risk-biased values for effort, duration, and staffing, to achieve higher confidence levels. SOFTCOST then produces a PERT/CPM file with subtask efforts, durations, and precedences defined so as to produce the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and schedule having the asked-for overall effort and duration. The SOFTCOST program operates in an interactive environment prompting the user for all of the required input. The program builds the supporting PERT data base in a file for later report generation or revision. The PERT schedule and the WBS schedule may be printed and stored in a

The Impact of Learning Curve Model Selection and Criteria for Cost Estimation Accuracy in the DoD

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-30

different in the future due to machines” • Heightened scrutiny of cost estimates • Budget Control Act of 2011 seeks to reduce federal deficit ...qÜáêíÉÉåíÜ=^ååì~ä= ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ= póãéçëáìã= qÜìêëÇ~ó=pÉëëáçåë= sçäìãÉ=ff= = The Impact of Learning Curve Model Selection and Criteria for Cost...Assistant Division Director, Institute for Defense Analyses Bruce Harmon, Research Staff Member, Institute for Defense Analyses The Impact of Learning

Computerized cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base for fusion devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, W.R.; Rothe, K.E.

1985-01-01

Component design parameters (weight, surface area, etc.) and cost factors are input and direct and indirect costs are calculated. The cost data base file derived from actual cost experience within the fusion community and refined to be compatible with the spreadsheet costing approach is a catalog of cost coefficients, algorithms, and component costs arranged into data modules corresponding to specific components and/or subsystems. Each data module contains engineering, equipment, and installation labor cost data for different configurations and types of the specific component or subsystem. This paper describes the assumptions, definitions, methodology, and architecture incorporated in the development of the cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base, along with the type of input required and the output format

Estimation of Foot Plantar Center of Pressure Trajectories with Low-Cost Instrumented Insoles Using an Individual-Specific Nonlinear Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinyao Hu

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Postural control is a complex skill based on the interaction of dynamic sensorimotor processes, and can be challenging for people with deficits in sensory functions. The foot plantar center of pressure (COP has often been used for quantitative assessment of postural control. Previously, the foot plantar COP was mainly measured by force plates or complicated and expensive insole-based measurement systems. Although some low-cost instrumented insoles have been developed, their ability to accurately estimate the foot plantar COP trajectory was not robust. In this study, a novel individual-specific nonlinear model was proposed to estimate the foot plantar COP trajectories with an instrumented insole based on low-cost force sensitive resistors (FSRs. The model coefficients were determined by a least square error approximation algorithm. Model validation was carried out by comparing the estimated COP data with the reference data in a variety of postural control assessment tasks. We also compared our data with the COP trajectories estimated by the previously well accepted weighted mean approach. Comparing with the reference measurements, the average root mean square errors of the COP trajectories of both feet were 2.23 mm (±0.64 (left foot and 2.72 mm (±0.83 (right foot along the medial–lateral direction, and 9.17 mm (±1.98 (left foot and 11.19 mm (±2.98 (right foot along the anterior–posterior direction. The results are superior to those reported in previous relevant studies, and demonstrate that our proposed approach can be used for accurate foot plantar COP trajectory estimation. This study could provide an inexpensive solution to fall risk assessment in home settings or community healthcare center for the elderly. It has the potential to help prevent future falls in the elderly.

Estimation of Foot Plantar Center of Pressure Trajectories with Low-Cost Instrumented Insoles Using an Individual-Specific Nonlinear Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xinyao; Zhao, Jun; Peng, Dongsheng; Sun, Zhenglong; Qu, Xingda

2018-02-01

Postural control is a complex skill based on the interaction of dynamic sensorimotor processes, and can be challenging for people with deficits in sensory functions. The foot plantar center of pressure (COP) has often been used for quantitative assessment of postural control. Previously, the foot plantar COP was mainly measured by force plates or complicated and expensive insole-based measurement systems. Although some low-cost instrumented insoles have been developed, their ability to accurately estimate the foot plantar COP trajectory was not robust. In this study, a novel individual-specific nonlinear model was proposed to estimate the foot plantar COP trajectories with an instrumented insole based on low-cost force sensitive resistors (FSRs). The model coefficients were determined by a least square error approximation algorithm. Model validation was carried out by comparing the estimated COP data with the reference data in a variety of postural control assessment tasks. We also compared our data with the COP trajectories estimated by the previously well accepted weighted mean approach. Comparing with the reference measurements, the average root mean square errors of the COP trajectories of both feet were 2.23 mm (±0.64) (left foot) and 2.72 mm (±0.83) (right foot) along the medial-lateral direction, and 9.17 mm (±1.98) (left foot) and 11.19 mm (±2.98) (right foot) along the anterior-posterior direction. The results are superior to those reported in previous relevant studies, and demonstrate that our proposed approach can be used for accurate foot plantar COP trajectory estimation. This study could provide an inexpensive solution to fall risk assessment in home settings or community healthcare center for the elderly. It has the potential to help prevent future falls in the elderly.

Cost estimating relationships for nuclear power plant operationa and maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowers, H.I.; Fuller, L.C.; Myers, M.L.

1987-11-01

Revised cost estimating relationships for 1987 are presented for estimating annual nonfuel operation and maintenance (O and M) costs for light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants, which update guidelines published previously in 1982. The purpose of these cost estimating relationships is for use in long range planning and evaluations of the economics of nuclear energy for electric power generation. A listing of a computer program, LWROM, implementing the cost estimating relationships and written in advanced BASIC for IBM personal computers, is included

Long-range planning cost model for support of future space missions by the deep space network

Science.gov (United States)

Sherif, J. S.; Remer, D. S.; Buchanan, H. R.

1990-01-01

A simple model is suggested to do long-range planning cost estimates for Deep Space Network (DSP) support of future space missions. The model estimates total DSN preparation costs and the annual distribution of these costs for long-range budgetary planning. The cost model is based on actual DSN preparation costs from four space missions: Galileo, Voyager (Uranus), Voyager (Neptune), and Magellan. The model was tested against the four projects and gave cost estimates that range from 18 percent above the actual total preparation costs of the projects to 25 percent below. The model was also compared to two other independent projects: Viking and Mariner Jupiter/Saturn (MJS later became Voyager). The model gave cost estimates that range from 2 percent (for Viking) to 10 percent (for MJS) below the actual total preparation costs of these missions.

Cost estimation for decommissioning: a review of current practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Sullivan, P.; Pescatore, C.

2009-01-01

It is now common practice for decommissioning plans and associated cost estimates to be prepared for all nuclear installations. Specific requirements are generally set out in regulations that have their basis in national legislation. These estimates are important for ensuring that the necessary funds are being collected to cover the actual costs of decommissioning the facility. The long time horizon for both amassing and disbursing these funds is a particular concern for national authorities. It is thus important to maintain a realistic estimate of the liabilities involved and to confirm the adequacy of the provisions to discharge them over time. Estimates of decommissioning costs have been performed and published by many organisations for many different purposes and applications. The results often vary because of differences in basic assumptions such as the choice of the decommissioning strategy (immediate vs. deferred), the availability of waste management pathways, the assumed end states of installations, the detailed definition of cost items, technical uncertainties, unforeseen events, the evolution of regulation and requirements. Many of these differences may be unavoidable since a reasonable degree of reliability and accuracy can only be achieved by developing decommissioning cost estimates on a case-by-case, site-specific basis. Moreover, even if considerable efforts are made to obtain reliable estimates, unforeseen events may cause estimates to go wrong. The issue of how to deal with uncertainties is therefore an important one, leading in turn to the need for risk management in terms of making adequate funding provisions. In March 2008, a questionnaire was circulated among the organisations participating in the NEA Decommissioning and Cost Estimation Group (DCEG). Information was collected on legal requirements and the responsibilities of the main parties concerned with the preparation and oversight of cost estimates, the main cost elements and associated

ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-02-01

This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill

ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-02-01

This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill.

System cost model user's manual, version 1.2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shropshire, D.

1995-06-01

The System Cost Model (SCM) was developed by Lockheed Martin Idaho Technologies in Idaho Falls, Idaho and MK-Environmental Services in San Francisco, California to support the Baseline Environmental Management Report sensitivity analysis for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The SCM serves the needs of the entire DOE complex for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) of mixed low-level, low-level, and transuranic waste. The model can be used to evaluate total complex costs based on various configuration options or to evaluate site-specific options. The site-specific cost estimates are based on generic assumptions such as waste loads and densities, treatment processing schemes, existing facilities capacities and functions, storage and disposal requirements, schedules, and cost factors. The SCM allows customization of the data for detailed site-specific estimates. There are approximately forty TSD module designs that have been further customized to account for design differences for nonalpha, alpha, remote-handled, and transuranic wastes. The SCM generates cost profiles based on the model default parameters or customized user-defined input and also generates costs for transporting waste from generators to TSD sites

A Response Surface-Based Cost Model for Wind Farm Design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Castillo, Luciano

2012-01-01

A Response Surface-Based Wind Farm Cost (RS-WFC) model is developed for the engineering planning of wind farms. The RS-WFC model is developed using Extended Radial Basis Functions (E-RBF) for onshore wind farms in the U.S. This model is then used to explore the influences of different design and economic parameters, including number of turbines, rotor diameter and labor cost, on the cost of a wind farm. The RS-WFC model is composed of three components that estimate the effects of engineering and economic factors on (i) the installation cost, (ii) the annual Operation and Maintenance (O and M) cost, and (iii) the total annual cost of a wind farm. The accuracy of the cost model is favorably established through comparison with pertinent commercial data. The final RS-WFC model provided interesting insights into cost variation with respect to critical engineering and economic parameters. In addition, a newly developed analytical wind farm engineering model is used to determine the power generated by the farm, and the subsequent Cost of Energy (COE). This COE is optimized for a unidirectional uniform “incoming wind speed” scenario using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). We found that the COE could be appreciably minimized through layout optimization, thereby yielding significant cost savings. - Highlights: ► We present a Response Surface-Based Wind Farm Cost (RS-WFC) model for wind farm design. ► The model could estimate installation cost, Operation and Maintenance cost, and total annual cost of a wind farm. ► The Cost of Energy is optimized using Particle Swarm Optimization. ► Layout optimization could yield significant cost savings.

Estimated Annual Maintenance Costs for Educational Facilities in Eritrea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vagnby, Bo Hellisen

Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea.......Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea....

Cost modelling in maintenance strategy optimisation for infrastructure assets with limited data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Wenjuan; Wang, Wenbin

2014-01-01

Our paper reports on the use of cost modelling in maintenance strategy optimisation for infrastructure assets. We present an original approach: the possibility of modelling even when the data and information usually required are not sufficient in quantity and quality. Our method makes use of subjective expert knowledge, and requires information gathered for only a small sample of assets to start with. Bayes linear methods are adopted to combine the subjective expert knowledge with the sample data to estimate the unknown model parameters of the cost model. When new information becomes available, Bayes linear methods also prove useful in updating these estimates. We use a case study from the rail industry to demonstrate our methods. The optimal maintenance strategy is obtained via simulation based on the estimated model parameters and the strategy with the least unit time cost is identified. When the optimal strategy is not followed due to insufficient funding, the future costs of recovering the degraded asset condition are estimated

Estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandmann, Frank G; Robotham, Julie V; Deeny, Sarah R; Edmunds, W John; Jit, Mark

2018-03-01

Opportunity costs of bed-days are fundamental to understanding the value of healthcare systems. They greatly influence burden of disease estimations and economic evaluations involving stays in healthcare facilities. However, different estimation techniques employ assumptions that differ crucially in whether to consider the value of the second-best alternative use forgone, of any available alternative use, or the value of the actually chosen alternative. Informed by economic theory, this paper provides a taxonomic framework of methodologies for estimating the opportunity costs of resources. This taxonomy is then applied to bed-days by classifying existing approaches accordingly. We highlight differences in valuation between approaches and the perspective adopted, and we use our framework to appraise the assumptions and biases underlying the standard approaches that have been widely adopted mostly unquestioned in the past, such as the conventional use of reference costs and administrative accounting data. Drawing on these findings, we present a novel approach for estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days in terms of health forgone for the second-best patient, but expressed monetarily. This alternative approach effectively re-connects to the concept of choice and explicitly considers net benefits. It is broadly applicable across settings and for other resources besides bed-days. © 2017 The Authors Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

1990-03-01

To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies. 10 refs., 8 figs., 32 tabs

Estimating the cost of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goldie Sue J

2006-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs can provide useful information to policymakers concerned with the broad allocation of resources as well as to local decision makers choosing between different options for reducing the burden from a single disease. For the latter, it is important to use country-specific data when possible and to represent cost differences between countries that might make one strategy more or less attractive than another strategy locally. As part of a CEA of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries, we supplemented limited primary cost data by developing other estimation techniques for direct medical and non-medical costs associated with alternative screening approaches using one of three initial screening tests: simple visual screening, HPV DNA testing, and cervical cytology. Here, we report estimation methods and results for three cost areas in which data were lacking. Methods To supplement direct medical costs, including staff, supplies, and equipment depreciation using country-specific data, we used alternative techniques to quantify cervical cytology and HPV DNA laboratory sample processing costs. We used a detailed quantity and price approach whose face validity was compared to an adaptation of a US laboratory estimation methodology. This methodology was also used to project annual sample processing capacities for each laboratory type. The cost of sample transport from the clinic to the laboratory was estimated using spatial models. A plausible range of the cost of patient time spent seeking and receiving screening was estimated using only formal sector employment and wages as well as using both formal and informal sector participation and country-specific minimum wages. Data sources included primary data from country-specific studies, international databases, international prices, and expert opinion. Costs were standardized to year 2000 international dollars using inflation adjustment and

Health Care Analysis for the MCRMC Insurance Cost Model

Science.gov (United States)

2015-06-01

incentive to reduce utilization  Subsidy to leave TRICARE and use other private health insurance  Increases in TRICARE premiums and co-pays  This...analysis develops the estimated cost of providing health care through a premium -based insurance model consistent with an employer-sponsored benefit...State  Income  Plan premium data  Contract cost data 22 May 2015 9 Agenda  Overview  Background  Data  Insurance Cost Estimate Methodology

Estimation of 18FDG doses's cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamza, Fatma; Amouri, W.; Jardak, I.; Kallel, F.; Charfeddine, S.; Guermazi, F.

2013-01-01

The cyclotron facility, essentially for medical use, is far from being a simple establishment of a dedicated device to accelerate particles producing a beta plus emitter radioelement. The cyclotron site encompasses more over all necessary equipments for the production and the quality control of considered radiotracer that 18 FDG is just one example. This facility is subject to strict standards in terms of radiopharmaceutical production, radiation level, pressure level and airflow resulting in the production of a drug submitted to the MA (Marketing Authorization). These multiple factors directly influence the final cost of the dose that remains to be reachable by the patient. The aim of this work is to estimate the cost of a dose of 18 FDG to ensure financial viability of the project while accessible to the patient. The cost of the facility will entail the following: buildings and utilities, equipment and operational cost. This calculation is possible only if we define in advance the type of cyclotron, which is bound to the market needs in particular the number of PET facilities, the number of scans per day and the radioactive decay of radioelement. Our study represents a simulation that considers some hypothesis. We assumed that the cyclotron is installed in Sousse and that the PET facilities number (positon emission tomography) is 6 in which 4 are located 2 hours away. For a PET scan, the average dose per patient is about 350 MBq (5 MBq/kg) and the exam duration is about 45 minutes. Each center performs 10 tests per day. In terms of fees, we considered device and building's cost, facility amortization, consumables (target, marking accessories), maintenance, remuneration expense and the annual electricity consumption. All our calculations have been reported to the number of working days per year. The estimates were made outside the customs duties and technical assistance that may last up to 2 years. Requirements and needs were estimated at 5.4 curies per day. For

[Socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease using the cost-of-illness model: applying the QALY method].

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Hosung; Lee, Suehyung; Kim, Jong Soo; Kim, Jinsuk; Han, Kyu Hong

2010-07-01

This study estimated the annual socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease in 2008 from a societal perspective and using a cost-of-illness method. Our model employed a comprehensive set of diagnostic disease codes to define food-borne diseases with using the Korea National Health Insurance (KNHI) reimbursement data. This study classified the food borne illness as three types of symptoms according to the severity of the illness: mild, moderate, severe. In addition to the traditional method of assessing the cost-of-illness, the study included measures to account for the lost quality of life. We estimated the cost of the lost quality of life using quality-adjusted life years and a visual analog scale. The direct cost included medical and medication costs, and the non-medical costs included transportation costs, caregiver's cost and administration costs. The lost productivity costs included lost workdays due to illness and lost earnings due to premature death. The study found the estimated annual socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease in 2008 were 954.9 billion won (735.3 billion won-996.9 billion won). The medical cost was 73.4 - 76.8% of the cost, the lost productivity cost was 22.6% and the cost of the lost quality of life was 26.0%. Most of the cost-of-illness studies are known to have underestimated the actual socioeconomic costs of the subjects, and these studies excluded many important social costs, such as the value of pain, suffering and functional disability. The study addressed the uncertainty related to estimating the socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease as well as the updated cost estimates. Our estimates could contribute to develop and evaluate policies for food-borne disease.

Production Functions for Water Delivery Systems: Analysis and Estimation Using Dual Cost Function and Implicit Price Specifications

Science.gov (United States)

Teeples, Ronald; Glyer, David

1987-05-01

Both policy and technical analysis of water delivery systems have been based on cost functions that are inconsistent with or are incomplete representations of the neoclassical production functions of economics. We present a full-featured production function model of water delivery which can be estimated from a multiproduct, dual cost function. The model features implicit prices for own-water inputs and is implemented as a jointly estimated system of input share equations and a translog cost function. Likelihood ratio tests are performed showing that a minimally constrained, full-featured production function is a necessary specification of the water delivery operations in our sample. This, plus the model's highly efficient and economically correct parameter estimates, confirms the usefulness of a production function approach to modeling the economic activities of water delivery systems.

A case-based reasoning approach for estimating the costs of pump station projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed M. Marzouk

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The effective estimation of costs is crucial to the success of construction projects. Cost estimates are used to evaluate, approve and/or fund projects. Organizations use some form of classification system to identify the various types of estimates that may be prepared during the lifecycle of a project. This research presents a parametric-cost model for pump station projects. Fourteen factors have been identified as important to the influence of the cost of pump station projects. A data set that consists of forty-four pump station projects (fifteen water and twenty-nine waste water are collected to build a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR library and to test its performance. The results obtained from the CBR tool are processed and adopted to improve the accuracy of the results. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the development of the effectiveness of the tool.

Development of hybrid lifecycle cost estimating tool (HLCET) for manufacturing influenced design tradeoff

Science.gov (United States)

Sirirojvisuth, Apinut

In complex aerospace system design, making an effective design decision requires multidisciplinary knowledge from both product and process perspectives. Integrating manufacturing considerations into the design process is most valuable during the early design stages since designers have more freedom to integrate new ideas when changes are relatively inexpensive in terms of time and effort. Several metrics related to manufacturability are cost, time, and manufacturing readiness level (MRL). Yet, there is a lack of structured methodology that quantifies how changes in the design decisions impact these metrics. As a result, a new set of integrated cost analysis tools are proposed in this study to quantify the impacts. Equally important is the capability to integrate this new cost tool into the existing design methodologies without sacrificing agility and flexibility required during the early design phases. To demonstrate the applicability of this concept, a ModelCenter environment is used to develop software architecture that represents Integrated Product and Process Development (IPPD) methodology used in several aerospace systems designs. The environment seamlessly integrates product and process analysis tools and makes effective transition from one design phase to the other while retaining knowledge gained a priori. Then, an advanced cost estimating tool called Hybrid Lifecycle Cost Estimating Tool (HLCET), a hybrid combination of weight-, process-, and activity-based estimating techniques, is integrated with the design framework. A new weight-based lifecycle cost model is created based on Tailored Cost Model (TCM) equations [3]. This lifecycle cost tool estimates the program cost based on vehicle component weights and programmatic assumptions. Additional high fidelity cost tools like process-based and activity-based cost analysis methods can be used to modify the baseline TCM result as more knowledge is accumulated over design iterations. Therefore, with this

Estimating Maintenance Cost for Web Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion IVAN

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The current paper tackles the issue of determining a method for estimating maintenance costs for web applications. The current state of research in the field of web application maintenance is summarized and leading theories and results are highlighted. The cost of web maintenance is determined by the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks. Web maintenance tasks are categorized into content maintenance and technical maintenance. Research is centered on analyzing technical maintenance tasks. The research hypothesis is formulated on the assumption that the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks can be assessed based on the web application’s user interaction level, complexity and content update effort. Data regarding the costs of maintenance tasks is collected from 24 maintenance projects implemented by a web development company that tackles a wide area of web applications. Homogeneity and diversity of collected data is submitted for debate by presenting a sample of the data and depicting the overall size and comprehensive nature of the entire dataset. A set of metrics dedicated to estimating maintenance costs in web applications is defined based on conclusions formulated by analyzing the collected data and the theories and practices dominating the current state of research. Metrics are validated with regards to the initial research hypothesis. Research hypothesis are validated and conclusions are formulated on the topic of estimating the maintenance cost of web applications. The limits of the research process which represented the basis for the current paper are enunciated. Future research topics are submitted for debate.

Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

Science.gov (United States)

Unal, Resit

1989-01-01

Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

Estimated incident cost savings in shipping due to inspections.

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Sabine; Bijwaard, Govert; Heij, Christiaan

2011-07-01

The effectiveness of safety inspections of ships has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper provides a monetary quantification of the cost savings that can be attributed to port state control inspections and industry vetting inspections. The dataset consists of more than half a million ship arrivals between 2002 and 2007 and contains inspections of port state authorities in the USA and Australia and of three industry vetting regimes. The effect of inspections in reducing the risk of total loss accidents is estimated by means of duration models, in terms of the gained probability of survival. The monetary benefit of port state control inspections is estimated to range, on average, from about 70 to 190 thousand dollars, with median values ranging from about 20 to 45 thousand dollars. Industry inspections have even higher benefits, especially for tankers. The savings are in general higher for older and larger vessels, and also for vessels with undefined flag and unknown classification society. As inspection costs are relatively low in comparison to potential cost savings, the results underline the importance of determining ships with relatively high risk of total loss. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Waste Management facilities cost information: System Cost Model Software Quality Assurance Plan. Revision 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, B.L.; Lundeen, A.S.

1996-02-01

In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for truck and rail, which include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. For the product to be effective and useful the SCM users must have a high level of confidence in the data generated by the software model. The SCM Software Quality Assurance Plan is part of the overall SCM project management effort to ensure that the SCM is maintained as a quality product and can be relied on to produce viable planning data. This document defines tasks and deliverables to ensure continued product integrity, provide increased confidence in the accuracy of the data generated, and meet the LITCO's quality standards during the software maintenance phase. 8 refs., 1 tab

Waste Management facilities cost information: System Cost Model Software Quality Assurance Plan. Revision 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peterson, B.L.; Lundeen, A.S.

1996-02-01

In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors developed the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life-cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, transuranic, and mixed transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life-cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The SCM also provides transportation costs for truck and rail, which include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation`s generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction costs, operation management, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. For the product to be effective and useful the SCM users must have a high level of confidence in the data generated by the software model. The SCM Software Quality Assurance Plan is part of the overall SCM project management effort to ensure that the SCM is maintained as a quality product and can be relied on to produce viable planning data. This document defines tasks and deliverables to ensure continued product integrity, provide increased confidence in the accuracy of the data generated, and meet the LITCO`s quality standards during the software maintenance phase. 8 refs., 1 tab.

40 CFR 261.142 - Cost estimate.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... hazardous waste, and the potential cost of closing the facility as a treatment, storage, and disposal... facility. (3) The cost estimate may not incorporate any salvage value that may be realized with the sale of... no later than 30 days after a change in a facility's operating plan or design that would increase the...

Estimating the fitness cost and benefit of cefixime resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae to inform prescription policy: A modelling study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lilith K Whittles

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Gonorrhoea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England. Over 41,000 cases were recorded in 2015, more than half of which occurred in men who have sex with men (MSM. As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, we need an improved understanding of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. Cefixime was recommended as a single-dose treatment for gonorrhoea from 2005 to 2010, during which time resistance increased, and subsequently declined.We developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime-sensitive and cefixime-resistant strains of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in MSM in England, which was applied to data on diagnoses and prescriptions between 2008 and 2015. We estimated that asymptomatic carriers play a crucial role in overall transmission dynamics, with 37% (95% credible interval CrI 24%-52% of infections remaining asymptomatic and untreated, accounting for 89% (95% CrI 82%-93% of onward transmission. The fitness cost of cefixime resistance in the absence of cefixime usage was estimated to be such that the number of secondary infections caused by resistant strains is only about half as much as for the susceptible strains, which is insufficient to maintain persistence. However, we estimated that treatment of cefixime-resistant strains with cefixime was unsuccessful in 83% (95% CrI 53%-99% of cases, representing a fitness benefit of resistance. This benefit was large enough to counterbalance the fitness cost when 31% (95% CrI 26%-36% of cases were treated with cefixime, and when more than 55% (95% CrI 44%-66% of cases were treated with cefixime, the resistant strain had a net fitness advantage over the susceptible strain. Limitations include sparse data leading to large intervals on key model parameters and necessary assumptions in the modelling of a complex epidemiological process

Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-01

This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

Hospital costs estimation and prediction as a function of patient and admission characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramiarina, Robert; Almeida, Renan Mvr; Pereira, Wagner Ca

2008-01-01

The present work analyzed the association between hospital costs and patient admission characteristics in a general public hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The unit costs method was used to estimate inpatient day costs associated to specific hospital clinics. With this aim, three "cost centers" were defined in order to group direct and indirect expenses pertaining to the clinics. After the costs were estimated, a standard linear regression model was developed for correlating cost units and their putative predictors (the patients gender and age, the admission type (urgency/elective), ICU admission (yes/no), blood transfusion (yes/no), the admission outcome (death/no death), the complexity of the medical procedures performed, and a risk-adjustment index). Data were collected for 3100 patients, January 2001-January 2003. Average inpatient costs across clinics ranged from (US$) 1135 [Orthopedics] to 3101 [Cardiology]. Costs increased according to increases in the risk-adjustment index in all clinics, and the index was statistically significant in all clinics except Urology, General surgery, and Clinical medicine. The occupation rate was inversely correlated to costs, and age had no association with costs. The (adjusted) per cent of explained variance varied between 36.3% [Clinical medicine] and 55.1% [Thoracic surgery clinic]. The estimates are an important step towards the standardization of hospital costs calculation, especially for countries that lack formal hospital accounting systems.

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... RULE CONCERNING DISCLOSURES REGARDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND WATER USE OF CERTAIN HOME APPLIANCES AND... § 305.5 Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Project Cost Estimation for Planning

Science.gov (United States)

2010-02-26

For Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT), there are far too many projects that ultimately cost much more than initially planned. Because project nominations are linked to estimates of future funding and the analysis of system needs, the inaccur...

Estimating productivity costs using the friction cost approach in practice: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Kigozi, Jesse; Jowett, Sue; Lewis, Martyn; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

2016-01-01

The choice of the most appropriate approach to valuing productivity loss has received much debate in the literature. The friction cost approach has been proposed as a more appropriate alternative to the human capital approach when valuing productivity loss, although its application remains limited. This study reviews application of the friction cost approach in health economic studies and examines how its use varies in practice across different country settings. A systematic review was performed to identify economic evaluation studies that have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach and published in English from 1996 to 2013. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from studies meeting the inclusion criteria. The search yielded 46 studies from 12 countries. Of these, 28 were from the Netherlands. Thirty-five studies reported the length of friction period used, with only 16 stating explicitly the source of the friction period. Nine studies reported the elasticity correction factor used. The reported friction cost approach methods used to derive productivity costs varied in quality across studies from different countries. Few health economic studies have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach. The estimation and reporting of productivity costs using this method appears to differ in quality by country. The review reveals gaps and lack of clarity in reporting of methods for friction cost evaluation. Generating reporting guidelines and country-specific parameters for the friction cost approach is recommended if increased application and accuracy of the method is to be realized.

Worldwide Anti-Money Laundering: Regulation: Estimating the Costs and Benefits

OpenAIRE

D. Masciandaro; R. Barone

2008-01-01

The aim of this article is to offer a simple framework for estimating the benefits and costs of anti-ML regulation, based on a prudent estimation of the economic value of worldwide money laundering. Using the multiplier model of the relationship between criminal markets revenues and money laundering activities and data for 2004, the value of money laundering is equal to US$1.2 trillion (2.7% of the world GDP), while the maximum theoretical benefit in combating money laundering using financial...

Method for developing cost estimates for generic regulatory requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-01-01

The NRC has established a practice of performing regulatory analyses, reflecting costs as well as benefits, of proposed new or revised generic requirements. A method had been developed to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required for this purpose and for assigning priorities in the resolution of generic safety issues. The cost of a generic requirement is defined as the net present value of total lifetime cost incurred by the public, industry, and government in implementing the requirement for all affected plants. The method described here is for commercial light-water-reactor power plants. Estimating the cost for a generic requirement involves several steps: (1) identifying the activities that must be carried out to fully implement the requirement, (2) defining the work packages associated with the major activities, (3) identifying the individual elements of cost for each work package, (4) estimating the magnitude of each cost element, (5) aggregating individual plant costs over the plant lifetime, and (6) aggregating all plant costs and generic costs to produce a total, national, present value of lifetime cost for the requirement. The method developed addresses all six steps. In this paper, we discuss on the first three

Cost estimate of electricity produced by TPV

Science.gov (United States)

Palfinger, Günther; Bitnar, Bernd; Durisch, Wilhelm; Mayor, Jean-Claude; Grützmacher, Detlev; Gobrecht, Jens

2003-05-01

A crucial parameter for the market penetration of TPV is its electricity production cost. In this work a detailed cost estimate is performed for a Si photocell based TPV system, which was developed for electrically self-powered operation of a domestic heating system. The results are compared to a rough estimate of cost of electricity for a projected GaSb based system. For the calculation of the price of electricity, a lifetime of 20 years, an interest rate of 4.25% per year and maintenance costs of 1% of the investment are presumed. To determine the production cost of TPV systems with a power of 12-20 kW, the costs of the TPV components and 100 EUR kW-1el,peak for assembly and miscellaneous were estimated. Alternatively, the system cost for the GaSb system was derived from the cost of the photocells and from the assumption that they account for 35% of the total system cost. The calculation was done for four different TPV scenarios which include a Si based prototype system with existing technology (etasys = 1.0%), leading to 3000 EUR kW-1el,peak, an optimized Si based system using conventional, available technology (etasys = 1.5%), leading to 900 EUR kW-1el,peak, a further improved system with future technology (etasys = 5%), leading to 340 EUR kW-1el,peak and a GaSb based system (etasys = 12.3% with recuperator), leading to 1900 EUR kW-1el,peak. Thus, prices of electricity from 6 to 25 EURcents kWh-1el (including gas of about 3.5 EURcents kWh-1) were calculated and compared with those of fuel cells (31 EURcents kWh-1) and gas engines (23 EURcents kWh-1).

Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

Science.gov (United States)

DiMasi, Joseph A; Grabowski, Henry G; Hansen, Ronald W

2016-05-01

The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating generation costs for wind power production in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benazet, J.F.; Probert, E.J.

1997-01-01

Wind power is being exploited in several European countries as one of a possible number of sources of renewable energy. However, in France there is a heavy reliance on nuclear and hydro-electric power and the potential of wind power as part of the energy mix has been virtually ignored. One of the reasons advanced for the under utilisation of this technology is that it is financially unattractive. In this paper the contribution which wind power could potentially make to overall power production levels in France is examined. A cost estimate model is developed which derives electricity generation costs and determines realistic levels of production for the future. The model automatically determines the associated number of wind turbines required and the geographical areas in which they should be located. (author)

Estimating pharmacy level prescription drug acquisition costs for third-party reimbursement.

Science.gov (United States)

Kreling, D H; Kirk, K W

1986-07-01

Accurate payment for the acquisition costs of drug products dispensed is an important consideration in a third-party prescription drug program. Two alternative methods of estimating these costs among pharmacies were derived and compared. First, pharmacists were surveyed to determine the purchase discounts offered to them by wholesalers. A 10.00% modal and 11.35% mean discount resulted for 73 responding pharmacists. Second, cost-plus percents derived from gross profit margins of wholesalers were calculated and applied to wholesaler product costs to estimate pharmacy level acquisition costs. Cost-plus percents derived from National Median and Southwestern Region wholesaler figures were 9.27% and 10.10%, respectively. A comparison showed the two methods of estimating acquisition costs would result in similar acquisition cost estimates. Adopting a cost-plus estimating approach is recommended because it avoids potential pricing manipulations by wholesalers and manufacturers that would negate improvements in drug product reimbursement accuracy.

Estimating the cost of disposal for Canada's nuclear fuel waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ates, Y.

1996-07-01

Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) prepared an Environmental Impact Statement and nine supporting Primary Reference Documents on the concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste. This report summarizes the basis of the cost estimate which is provided in the primary reference document on engineering for a disposal facility. The scope of the cost estimate is explained by describing the key features of the disposal facility design, by noting the major assumptions made in preparing the estimates, and by listing the included and excluded cost components. An activity-based project planning and control method is explained whereby the project schedule, costs, and personnel requirements are interlinked; forming an integrated perspective on the total project life cycle. The summary and distribution of costs in each project stage by major facility or activity are presented. The results of studies which reviewed the overall cost estimate are also described. These studies indicate that, within the scope, the estimate is reasonable and compares well with similar international studies. (author)

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles unique cost estimating requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Malone, P.; Apgar, H.; Stukes, S.; Sterk, S.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), also referred to as drones, are aerial platforms that fly without a human pilot onboard. UAVs are controlled autonomously by a computer in the vehicle or under the remote control of a pilot stationed at a fixed ground location. There are a wide variety of drone shapes, sizes, configurations, complexities, and characteristics. Use of these devices by the Department of Defense (DoD), NASA, civil and commercial organizations continues to grow. UAVs are commonly used for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR). They are also use for combat operations, and civil applications, such as firefighting, non-military security work, surveillance of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, power lines and country borders). UAVs are often preferred for missions that require sustained persistence (over 4 hours in duration), or are “ too dangerous, dull or dirty” for manned aircraft. Moreover, they can offer significant acquisition and operations cost savings over traditional manned aircraft. Because of these unique characteristics and missions, UAV estimates require some unique estimating methods. This paper describes a framework for estimating UAV systems total ownership cost including hardware components, software design, and operations. The challenge of collecting data, testing the sensitivities of cost drivers, and creating cost estimating relationships (CERs) for each key work breakdown structure (WBS) element is discussed. The autonomous operation of UAVs is especially challenging from a software perspective.

Social opportunity cost of capital: empirical estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Townsend, S.

1978-02-01

This report develops estimates of the social-opportunity cost of public capital. The private and social costs of capital are found to diverge primarily because of the effects of corporate and personal income taxes. Following Harberger, the social-opportunity cost of capital is approximated by a weighted average of the returns to different classes of savers and investors where the weights are the flows of savings or investments in each class multiplied by the relevant elasticity. Estimates of these parameters are obtained and the social-opportunity cost of capital is determined to be in the range of 6.2 to 10.8%, depending upon the parameter values used. Uncertainty is found to affect the social-opportunity cost of capital in two ways. First, some allowance must be made for the chance of failure or at least of not realizing claims of a project's proponents. Second, a particular government project will change the expected variability of the returns to the government's entire portfolio of projects. In the absence of specific information about each project, the use of the economy-wide average default and risk adjustments is suggested. These are included in the empirical estimates reported. International capital markets make available private capital, the price of which is not distorted by the U.S. tax system. The inclusion of foreign sources slightly reduces the social-opportunity cost of capital. 21 references.

Estimating the mental health costs of racial discrimination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanuel Elias

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD. However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimated indirect non-health related productivity costs. In this study, we estimate the burden of disease due to exposure to racial discrimination and measure the cost of this exposure. Methods Using prevalence surveys and data on the association of racial discrimination with health outcomes from a global meta-analysis, we apply a cost of illness method to measure the impact of racial discrimination. This estimate indicates the direct health cost attributable to racial discrimination and we convert the estimates to monetary values based on conventional parameters. Results Racial discrimination costs the Australian economy 235,452 in disability adjusted life years lost, equivalent to $37.9 billion per annum, roughly 3.02% of annual gross domestic product (GDP over 2001–11, indicating a sizeable loss for the economy. Conclusion Substantial cost is incurred due to increased prevalence of racial discrimination as a result of its association with negative health outcomes (e.g. depression, anxiety and PTSD. This implies that potentially significant cost savings can be made through measures that target racial discrimination. Our research contributes to the debate on the social impact of racial discrimination, with implications for policies and efforts addressing it.

Cost estimating Brayton and Stirling engines

Science.gov (United States)

Fortgang, H. R.

1980-01-01

Brayton and Stirling engines were analyzed for cost and selling price for production quantities ranging from 1000 to 400,000 units per year. Parts and components were subjected to indepth scrutiny to determine optimum manufacturing processes coupled with make or buy decisions on materials and small parts. Tooling and capital equipment costs were estimated for each detail and/or assembly. For low annual production volumes, the Brayton engine appears to have a lower cost and selling price than the Stirling Engine. As annual production quantities increase, the Stirling becomes a lower cost engine than the Brayton. Both engines could benefit cost wise if changes were made in materials, design and manufacturing process as annual production quantities increase.

Parabolic Trough Reference Plant for Cost Modeling with the Solar Advisor Model (SAM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turchi, C.

2010-07-01

This report describes a component-based cost model developed for parabolic trough solar power plants. The cost model was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), assisted by WorleyParsons Group Inc., for use with NREL's Solar Advisor Model (SAM). This report includes an overview and explanation of the model, two summary contract reports from WorleyParsons, and an Excel spreadsheet for use with SAM. The cost study uses a reference plant with a 100-MWe capacity and six hours of thermal energy storage. Wet-cooling and dry-cooling configurations are considered. The spreadsheet includes capital and operating cost by component to allow users to estimate the impact of changes in component costs.

Using Multiple and Logistic Regression to Estimate the Median WillCost and Probability of Cost and Schedule Overrun for Program Managers

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-23

Logistic Regression to Estimate the Median Will-Cost and Probability of Cost and Schedule Overrun for Program Managers Ryan C. Trudelle, B.S...not the other. We are able to give logistic regression models to program managers that identify several program characteristics for either...considered acceptable. We recommend the use of our logistic models as a tool to manage a portfolio of programs in order to gain potential elusive

Econometric estimation of investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms using hyperbolic distance functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henningsen, Arne; Fabricius, Ole; Olsen, Jakob Vesterlund

2014-01-01

Based on a theoretical microeconomic model, we econometrically estimate investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms based on a large unbalanced panel dataset. As our theoretical model indicates that adjustment costs are caused both by increased inputs...... of investment activities by the maximum likelihood method so that we can estimate the adjustment costs that occur in the year of the investment and the three following years. Our results show that investments are associated with significant adjustment costs, especially in the year in which the investment...

Cost estimation and management over the life cycle of metallurgical ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study investigates whether all expected costs over the life cycle of metallurgical research projects are included in initial, normal and fi nal cost estimates, and whether these costs are managed throughout a project's life cycle since there is not enough emphasis on the accurate estimation of costs and their management ...

Cost Estimates and Investment Decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Emhjellen, Kjetil; Emhjellen Magne; Osmundsen, Petter

2001-08-01

When evaluating new investment projects, oil companies traditionally use the discounted cashflow method. This method requires expected cashflows in the numerator and a risk adjusted required rate of return in the denominator in order to calculate net present value. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a project is one of the major cashflows used to calculate net present value. Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. In the oil industry and many other industries, it is common practice to report a CAPEX that is the estimated 50/50 (median) CAPEX instead of the estimated expected (expected value) CAPEX. In this article we demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX, when the cost distributions are asymmetric, causes project valuation errors and therefore may lead to wrong investment decisions with acceptance of projects that have negative net present values. (author)

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard

2017-12-11

The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

Estimating the impact of enterprise resource planning project management decisions on post-implementation maintenance costs: a case study using simulation modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Fryling, Meg

2010-11-01

Organisations often make implementation decisions with little consideration for the maintenance phase of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, resulting in significant recurring maintenance costs. Poor cost estimations are likely related to the lack of an appropriate framework for enterprise-wide pre-packaged software maintenance, which requires an ongoing relationship with the software vendor (Markus, M.L., Tanis, C., and Fenema, P.C., 2000. Multisite ERP implementation. CACM, 43 (4), 42-46). The end result is that critical project decisions are made with little empirical data, resulting in substantial long-term cost impacts. The product of this research is a formal dynamic simulation model that enables theory testing, scenario exploration and policy analysis. The simulation model ERPMAINT1 was developed by combining and extending existing frameworks in several research domains, and by incorporating quantitative and qualitative case study data. The ERPMAINT1 model evaluates tradeoffs between different ERP project management decisions and their impact on post-implementation total cost of ownership (TCO). Through model simulations a variety of dynamic insights were revealed that could assist ERP project managers. Major findings from the simulation show that upfront investments in mentoring and system exposure translate to long-term cost savings. The findings also indicate that in addition to customisations, add-ons have a significant impact on TCO.

Construction cost prediction model for conventional and sustainable college buildings in North America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Othman Subhi Alshamrani

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The literature lacks in initial cost prediction models for college buildings, especially comparing costs of sustainable and conventional buildings. A multi-regression model was developed for conceptual initial cost estimation of conventional and sustainable college buildings in North America. RS Means was used to estimate the national average of construction costs for 2014, which was subsequently utilized to develop the model. The model could predict the initial cost per square feet with two structure types made of steel and concrete. The other predictor variables were building area, number of floors and floor height. The model was developed in three major stages, such as preliminary diagnostics on data quality, model development and validation. The developed model was successfully tested and validated with real-time data.

Mind the Gap! A Multilevel Analysis of Factors Related to Variation in Published Cost-Effectiveness Estimates within and between Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Boehler, Christian E H; Lord, Joanne

2016-01-01

Published cost-effectiveness estimates can vary considerably, both within and between countries. Despite extensive discussion, little is known empirically about factors relating to these variations. To use multilevel statistical modeling to integrate cost-effectiveness estimates from published economic evaluations to investigate potential causes of variation. Cost-effectiveness studies of statins for cardiovascular disease prevention were identified by systematic review. Estimates of incremental costs and effects were extracted from reported base case, sensitivity, and subgroup analyses, with estimates grouped in studies and in countries. Three bivariate models were developed: a cross-classified model to accommodate data from multinational studies, a hierarchical model with multinational data allocated to a single category at country level, and a hierarchical model excluding multinational data. Covariates at different levels were drawn from a long list of factors suggested in the literature. We found 67 studies reporting 2094 cost-effectiveness estimates relating to 23 countries (6 studies reporting for more than 1 country). Data and study-level covariates included patient characteristics, intervention and comparator cost, and some study methods (e.g., discount rates and time horizon). After adjusting for these factors, the proportion of variation attributable to countries was negligible in the cross-classified model but moderate in the hierarchical models (14%-19% of total variance). Country-level variables that improved the fit of the hierarchical models included measures of income and health care finance, health care resources, and population risks. Our analysis suggested that variability in published cost-effectiveness estimates is related more to differences in study methods than to differences in national context. Multinational studies were associated with much lower country-level variation than single-country studies. These findings are for a single clinical

48 CFR 1852.216-84 - Estimated cost and incentive fee.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... Provisions and Clauses 1852.216-84 Estimated cost and incentive fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(d), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Incentive Fee (OCT 1996) The target cost of this contract is $___. The target fee of this contract is $___. The total target cost and target fee as contemplated by the...

Use of travel cost models in planning: A case study

Science.gov (United States)

Allan Marsinko; William T. Zawacki; J. Michael Bowker

2002-01-01

This article examines the use of the travel cost, method in tourism-related decision making in the area of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation. A travel cost model of nonconsumptive wildlife-associated recreation, developed by Zawacki, Maninko, and Bowker, is used as a case study for this analysis. The travel cost model estimates the demand for the activity...

Estimated Cost to a Restaurant of a Foodborne Illness Outbreak.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartsch, Sarah M; Asti, Lindsey; Nyathi, Sindiso; Spiker, Marie L; Lee, Bruce Y

Although outbreaks of restaurant-associated foodborne illness occur periodically and make the news, a restaurant may not be aware of the cost of an outbreak. We estimated this cost under varying circumstances. We developed a computational simulation model; scenarios varied outbreak size (5 to 250 people affected), pathogen (n = 15), type of dining establishment (fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining), lost revenue (ie, meals lost per illness), cost of lawsuits and legal fees, fines, and insurance premium increases. We estimated that the cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak ranged from $3968 to $1.9 million for a fast-food restaurant, $6330 to $2.1 million for a fast-casual restaurant, $8030 to $2.2 million for a casual-dining restaurant, and $8273 to $2.6 million for a fine-dining restaurant, varying from a 5-person outbreak, with no lost revenue, lawsuits, legal fees, or fines, to a 250-person outbreak, with high lost revenue (100 meals lost per illness), and a high amount of lawsuits and legal fees ($1 656 569) and fines ($100 000). This cost amounts to 10% to 5790% of a restaurant's annual marketing costs and 0.3% to 101% of annual profits and revenue. The biggest cost drivers were lawsuits and legal fees, outbreak size, and lost revenue. Pathogen type affected the cost by a maximum of $337 000, the difference between a Bacillus cereus outbreak (least costly) and a listeria outbreak (most costly). The cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak to a restaurant can be substantial and outweigh the typical costs of prevention and control measures. Our study can help decision makers determine investment and motivate research for infection-control measures in restaurant settings.

Comparing Methods for Estimating Direct Costs of Adverse Drug Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Gyllensten, Hanna; Jönsson, Anna K; Hakkarainen, Katja M; Svensson, Staffan; Hägg, Staffan; Rehnberg, Clas

2017-12-01

To estimate how direct health care costs resulting from adverse drug events (ADEs) and cost distribution are affected by methodological decisions regarding identification of ADEs, assigning relevant resource use to ADEs, and estimating costs for the assigned resources. ADEs were identified from medical records and diagnostic codes for a random sample of 4970 Swedish adults during a 3-month study period in 2008 and were assessed for causality. Results were compared for five cost evaluation methods, including different methods for identifying ADEs, assigning resource use to ADEs, and for estimating costs for the assigned resources (resource use method, proportion of registered cost method, unit cost method, diagnostic code method, and main diagnosis method). Different levels of causality for ADEs and ADEs' contribution to health care resource use were considered. Using the five methods, the maximum estimated overall direct health care costs resulting from ADEs ranged from Sk10,000 (Sk = Swedish krona; ~€1,500 in 2016 values) using the diagnostic code method to more than Sk3,000,000 (~€414,000) using the unit cost method in our study population. The most conservative definitions for ADEs' contribution to health care resource use and the causality of ADEs resulted in average costs per patient ranging from Sk0 using the diagnostic code method to Sk4066 (~€500) using the unit cost method. The estimated costs resulting from ADEs varied considerably depending on the methodological choices. The results indicate that costs for ADEs need to be identified through medical record review and by using detailed unit cost data. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating resource costs of compliance with EU WFD ecological status requirements at the river basin scale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riegels, Niels; Jensen, Roar; Benasson, Lisa

2011-01-01

Resource costs of meeting EU WFD ecological status requirements at the river basin scale are estimated by comparing net benefits of water use given ecological status constraints to baseline water use values. Resource costs are interpreted as opportunity costs of water use arising from water...... scarcity. An optimization approach is used to identify economically efficient ways to meet WFD requirements. The approach is implemented using a river basin simulation model coupled to an economic post-processor; the simulation model and post-processor are run from a central controller that iterates until...... an allocation is found that maximizes net benefits given WFD requirements. Water use values are estimated for urban/domestic, agricultural, industrial, livestock, and tourism water users. Ecological status is estimated using metrics that relate average monthly river flow volumes to the natural hydrologic regime...

Estimating remediation costs for the Montclair radium superfund sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, M.J.

1995-01-01

The Montclair/West Orange and Glen Ridge Superfund Sites, located in Essex County, NJ, are contaminated to varying degrees with radioactive materials. The waste originated from radium processing facilities prevalent in the area during the early 1900s. The design for remediation of these sites is managed by Bechtel National, Inc. on behalf of the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Kansas City District, which administers the project through an interagency agreement with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Design efforts for the project began in 1990. A portion of the scope, which is the topic of this article, was preparing the remediation costs estimates. These estimates were to be prepared from the detailed design packages; the Corps of Engineers required that the estimates were prepared using the Micro Computer-Aided Cost Estimating System (MCACES). This article discusses the design methods used, provides an overview of MCACES, and discusses the structure and preparation of the cost estimate and its uses. However, the main focus of the article is the methods used to generate the required project-specific cost estimate format for this project. 6 figs

Venture Guidance Appraisal cost estimates for groundwater protection Environmental Impact Statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moyer, R.A.

1987-01-01

Cost estimates were prepared for closure options at criteria waste sites and alternatives for new disposal facilities for hazardous wastes, mixed wastes, low level radioactive wastes and slurry from liquid waste treatment facilities. Because these cost estimates will be used in the Groundwater Protection EIS, the goal was to develop ''enveloping'' costs, i.e., the alternative or option chosen for execution at a later date should cost no more than the estimate. This report summarizes scenarios for making detailed cost estimates. Also included are unit costs for disposition of potential excavations, for operational activities, and for groundwater monitoring and site maintenance after closure of the site. The cost numbers presented are intended for study purposes only and not for budgetary activities

Cost estimate of bovine tuberculosis to Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Tschopp, Rea; Hattendorf, Jan; Roth, Felix; Choudhury, Adnan Ali Khan; Choudhoury, Adnan; Shaw, Alexandra; Aseffa, Abraham; Zinsstag, Jakob

2013-01-01

While bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been eliminated in some industrialized countries, it prevails worldwide, particularly in Africa. In Ethiopia, BTB is prevalent as numerous studies have shown its occurrence in livestock and in abattoirs but it has not been demonstrated in wildlife and only very few cases have been found in humans. The objective of this study is to estimate the cost of BTB to Ethiopia with the aim of informing Ethiopian policy on options for BTB control. BTB in livestock affects both animal productivity and herd demographic composition. The Livestock Development Planning System (LDPS2, FAO) was modified to allow for stochastic simulation of parameters. We performed an incremental cost of disease analysis, comparing livestock production with and without BTB. For the rural scenario we considered an endemically stable 4 % comparative intradermal test (CIDT) prevalence and for the urban scenario an endemically stable 32 % CIDT prevalence among cattle. The net present value of rural Ethiopian livestock products in 2005 is estimated at 65.7 billion (thousand million) Ethiopian Birr (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 53.8-77.7 billion Birr), which is the equivalent of 7.5 billion US$ (95 %CI 6.1-8.9 billion US$) at a rate of 8.7 Birr per US$ in 2005. The cost of BTB ranges from 646 million Birr (75.2 million US$) in 2005 to 3.1 Billion Birr in 2011 (358 million US$) but is within the range of uncertainty of our estimate and can thus not be distinguished from zero. The cost of disease in the urban livestock production ranges from 5 to 42 million Birr (500,000-4.9 million US$) between 2005 and 2011 but is also within the range of uncertainty of our estimate. Our study shows no measurable loss in asset value or cost of disease due to BTB in rural and urban production systems in Ethiopia. This does not mean that there is not a real cost of disease, but the variability of the productivity parameters and prices are high and would require more precise estimates

Failing to Estimate the Costs of Offshoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller Larsen, Marcus

2016-01-01

This article investigates cost estimation errors in the context of offshoring. It is argued that an imprecise estimation of the costs related to implementing a firm activity in a foreign location has a negative impact on the process performance of that activity. Performance is deterred...... as operations are likely to be disrupted by managerial distraction and resource misallocation. It is also argued that this relationship is mitigated by the extent to which firms use modularity to coordinate the activity but worsened by the extent to which ongoing communication is used. The results, based...

Reducing Inventory System Costs by Using Robust Demand Estimators

OpenAIRE

Raymond A. Jacobs; Harvey M. Wagner

1989-01-01

Applications of inventory theory typically use historical data to estimate demand distribution parameters. Imprecise knowledge of the demand distribution adds to the usual replenishment costs associated with stochastic demands. Only limited research has been directed at the problem of choosing cost effective statistical procedures for estimating these parameters. Available theoretical findings on estimating the demand parameters for (s, S) inventory replenishment policies are limited by their...

The unit cost factors and calculation methods for decommissioning - Cost estimation of nuclear research facilities