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Sample records for cost estimates modelling

  1. Modeling Uncertainty when Estimating IT Projects Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Winter, Michel; Mirbel, Isabelle; Crescenzo, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    In the current economic context, optimizing projects' cost is an obligation for a company to remain competitive in its market. Introducing statistical uncertainty in cost estimation is a good way to tackle the risk of going too far while minimizing the project budget: it allows the company to determine the best possible trade-off between estimated cost and acceptable risk. In this paper, we present new statistical estimators derived from the way IT companies estimate the projects' costs. In t...

  2. Hospital Case Cost Estimates Modelling - Algorithm Comparison

    CERN Document Server

    Andru, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Ontario (Canada) Health System stakeholders support the idea and necessity of the integrated source of data that would include both clinical (e.g. diagnosis, intervention, length of stay, case mix group) and financial (e.g. cost per weighted case, cost per diem) characteristics of the Ontario healthcare system activities at the patient-specific level. At present, the actual patient-level case costs in the explicit form are not available in the financial databases for all hospitals. The goal of this research effort is to develop financial models that will assign each clinical case in the patient-specific data warehouse a dollar value, representing the cost incurred by the Ontario health care facility which treated the patient. Five mathematical models have been developed and verified using real dataset. All models can be classified into two groups based on their underlying method: 1. Models based on using relative intensity weights of the cases, and 2. Models based on using cost per diem.

  3. Estimation of traffic accident costs: a prompted model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, Rokhshad; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir; Radam, Alias; Rahim, Khalid Abdul; Ibrahim, Zelina Zaitun; Yazdani, Saeed

    2013-01-01

    Traffic accidents are the reason for 25% of unnatural deaths in Iran. The main objective of this study is to find a simple model for the estimation of economic costs especially in Islamic countries (like Iran) in a straightforward manner. The model can show the magnitude of traffic accident costs with monetary equivalent. Data were collected from different sources that included traffic police records, insurance companies and hospitals. The conceptual framework, in our study, was based on the method of Ayati. He used this method for the estimation of economic costs in Iran. We promoted his method via minimum variables. Our final model has only three available variables which can be taken from insurance companies and police records. The running model showed that the traffic accident costs were US$2.2 million in 2007 for our case study route.

  4. An Instructional Cost Estimation Model for the XYZ Community College.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonson, William F.

    An enrollment-driven model for estimating instructional costs is presented in this paper as developed by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE). After stating the principles of the WICHE planning system (i.e., various categories of data are gathered, segmented, and then cross-tabulated against one another to yield certain…

  5. Estimating the Costs of Educating Handicapped Children: A Resource-Cost Model Approach-Summary Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, William T.

    1981-01-01

    The resource cost model approach makes the programmatic aspects of special education explicit and links these with associated costs. It facilitates planning for education of handicapped children. An effective cost estimation plan was necessary because of recent political and legal mandates which established the educational rights of the…

  6. Cost function estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, C K; Andersen, K; Kragh-Sørensen, P

    2000-01-01

    on these criteria, a two-part model was chosen. In this model, the probability of incurring any costs was estimated using a logistic regression, while the level of the costs was estimated in the second part of the model. The choice of model had a substantial impact on the predicted health care costs, e......Statistical analysis of cost data is often difficult because of highly skewed data resulting from a few patients who incur high costs relative to the majority of patients. When the objective is to predict the cost for an individual patient, the literature suggests that one should choose...... a regression model based on the quality of its predictions. In exploring the econometric issues, the objective of this study was to estimate a cost function in order to estimate the annual health care cost of dementia. Using different models, health care costs were regressed on the degree of dementia, sex, age...

  7. The Software Costs Estimation Based on UML Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XiaopingYang; LuJun; YuefengZhao

    2004-01-01

    UML is a standard modeling language used in object-oriented analysis and design. Function point analysis is a method used to measure the size of an application, It is independent of the implementation programming language. Its measuring result can be compared between different development processes. This paper presents a method to use the requirements analysis model of UML to analysis the application's function points, so software developer can use it to estimate the project's size and cost. An improved method is given at the end of this paper.

  8. Advanced fuel cycle cost estimation model and its cost estimation results for three nuclear fuel cycles using a dynamic model in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sungki, E-mail: sgkim1@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Ko, Wonil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Youn, Saerom; Gao, Ruxing [University of Science and Technology, 217 Gajungro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-350 (Korea, Republic of); Bang, Sungsig, E-mail: ssbang@kaist.ac.kr [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Business and Technology Management, 291 Deahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • The nuclear fuel cycle cost using a new cost estimation model was analyzed. • The material flows of three nuclear fuel cycle options were calculated. • The generation cost of once-through was estimated to be 66.88 mills/kW h. • The generation cost of pyro-SFR recycling was estimated to be 78.06 mills/kW h. • The reactor cost was identified as the main cost driver of pyro-SFR recycling. - Abstract: The present study analyzes advanced nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation models such as the different discount rate model and its cost estimation results. To do so, an analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle cost of three options (direct disposal (once through), PWR–MOX (Mixed OXide fuel), and Pyro-SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor)) from the viewpoint of economic sense, focusing on the cost estimation model, was conducted using a dynamic model. From an analysis of the fuel cycle cost estimation results, it was found that some cost gap exists between the traditional same discount rate model and the advanced different discount rate model. However, this gap does not change the priority of the nuclear fuel cycle option from the viewpoint of economics. In addition, the fuel cycle costs of OT (Once-Through) and Pyro-SFR recycling based on the most likely value using a probabilistic cost estimation except for reactor costs were calculated to be 8.75 mills/kW h and 8.30 mills/kW h, respectively. Namely, the Pyro-SFR recycling option was more economical than the direct disposal option. However, if the reactor cost is considered, the economic sense in the generation cost between the two options (direct disposal vs. Pyro-SFR recycling) can be changed because of the high reactor cost of an SFR.

  9. FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Wang, L.; Wood, E.; Lopp, S.; Ramroth, L.

    2015-05-04

    The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

  10. COST ESTIMATION MODELS FOR DRINKING WATER TREATMENT UNIT PROCESSES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cost models for unit processes typically utilized in a conventional water treatment plant and in package treatment plant technology are compiled in this paper. The cost curves are represented as a function of specified design parameters and are categorized into four major catego...

  11. Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model; Final report: Documentation of waste management process, development of Cost Estimation Model, and model reference manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

    1994-03-01

    This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs.

  12. Cost function estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, C K; Andersen, K; Kragh-Sørensen, P

    2000-01-01

    Statistical analysis of cost data is often difficult because of highly skewed data resulting from a few patients who incur high costs relative to the majority of patients. When the objective is to predict the cost for an individual patient, the literature suggests that one should choose...... a regression model based on the quality of its predictions. In exploring the econometric issues, the objective of this study was to estimate a cost function in order to estimate the annual health care cost of dementia. Using different models, health care costs were regressed on the degree of dementia, sex, age......, marital status and presence of any co-morbidity other than dementia. Models with a log-transformed dependent variable, where predicted health care costs were re-transformed to the unlogged original scale by multiplying the exponential of the expected response on the log-scale with the average...

  13. A General Model for Cost Estimation in an Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benzion Barlev

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Current Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP state that the cost of an asset acquired for cash is the fair value (FV of the amount surrendered, and that of an asset acquired in a non-monetary exchange is the FV of the asset surrendered or, if it is more “clearly evident,” the FV of the acquired asset. The measurement method prescribed for a non-monetary exchange ignores valuable information about the “less clearly evident” asset. Thus, we suggest that the FV in any exchange be measured by the weighted average of the exchanged assets’ FV estimations, where the weights are the inverse of the variances’ estimations. This alternative valuation process accounts for the uncertainty involved in estimating the FV of each of the asset in the exchange. The proposed method suits all types of exchanges: monetary and non-monetary. In a monetary transaction, the weighted average equals the cash paid because the variance of its FV is nil.

  14. Estimating the Costs of Educating Handicapped Children: A Resource-Cost Model Approach. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, William T.

    The research described in this report attempts to estimate the costs of providing an appropriate education to all school-aged handicapped children by 1980-81. The study begins by addressing the aspects of special education that will help to predict future costs--patterns of growth to the present, legal and political mandates, the nature of various…

  15. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

  16. Construction Cost Estimates for Residences in Spain: practical application of the Pcr.5n model

    OpenAIRE

    Pina Ruiz, Pedro; García Erviti, Federico; Ramírez Pacheco, Gema María

    2013-01-01

    The construction cost estimation systems in Spain are undeveloped and, hence, infrequently used by technicians and professionals in the building sector. However, estimation of an approximate real cost prior to the execution of the work is compulsory under current legal regulations (Technical Building Code). Therefore, the development of research projects on construction cost estimation models such as the one described and demonstrated in this talk is extremely interesting.

  17. Software Cost Estimation Review

    OpenAIRE

    Ongere, Alphonce

    2013-01-01

    Software cost estimation is the process of predicting the effort, the time and the cost re-quired to complete software project successfully. It involves size measurement of the soft-ware project to be produced, estimating and allocating the effort, drawing the project schedules, and finally, estimating overall cost of the project. Accurate estimation of software project cost is an important factor for business and the welfare of software organization in general. If cost and effort estimat...

  18. Cost Estimates for Designing and Implementing a Novel Team Care Model for Chronically Ill Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panattoni, Laura; Dillon, Ellis; Hurlimann, Lily; Durbin, Meg; Tai-Seale, Ming

    2017-09-25

    Little is known about the cost of implementing chronic care models. We estimate the human resource cost of implementing a novel team-based chronic care model "Champion," at a large multispecialty group practice. We used activity-based costing to calculate costs from development through rollout and stabilization in 1 clinic with 12 000 chronic care patients. Data analyzed included Microsoft Outlook meeting metadata, supporting documents, and 2014 employee wages. Implementation took more than 29 months, involved 168 employees, and cost the organization $2 304 787. Payers may need to consider a mixed-payment model to support the both implementation and maintenance costs of team-based chronic care.

  19. Software Cost Estimation Model Based on Integration of Multi-agent and Case-Based Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Al-Sakran

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate software cost estimation is a vital task that affects the firm's software investment decisions before committing required resources to that project or bidding for a contract. This study proposes an improved Case-Based Reasoning (CBR approach integrated with multi-agent technology to retrieve similar projects from multi-organizational distributed datasets. The study explores the possibility of building a software cost estimation model by collecting software cost data from distributed predefined project cost databases. The model applying CBR method to find similar projects in historical data derived from measured software projects developed by different organizations.

  20. A Neural Network Model for Construction Projects Site Overhead Cost Estimating in Egypt

    CERN Document Server

    ElSawy, Ismaail; Razek, Mohammed Abdel

    2011-01-01

    Estimating of the overhead costs of building construction projects is an important task in the management of these projects. The quality of construction management depends heavily on their accurate cost estimation. Construction costs prediction is a very difficult and sophisticated task especially when using manual calculation methods. This paper uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to develop a parametric cost-estimating model for site overhead cost in Egypt. Fifty-two actual real-life cases of building projects constructed in Egypt during the seven year period 2002-2009 were used as training materials. The neural network architecture is presented for the estimation of the site overhead costs as a percentage from the total project price.

  1. Estimating the costs of reducing CO2 emission via avoided deforestation with integrated assessment modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overmars, K.P.; Tabeau, A.A.; Stehfest, E.; Meijl, van J.C.M.

    2012-01-01

    Estimates for deforestation and forest degradation were shown to account for about 17% of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs. Proper calculation of such a costs requires integrated modeling approach involving biop

  2. Twice-weighted multiple interval estimation of a marginal structural model to analyze cost-effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfeld, K S

    2014-03-30

    Cost-effectiveness analysis is an important tool that can be applied to the evaluation of a health treatment or policy. When the observed costs and outcomes result from a nonrandomized treatment, making causal inference about the effects of the treatment requires special care. The challenges are compounded when the observation period is truncated for some of the study subjects. This paper presents a method of unbiased estimation of cost-effectiveness using observational study data that is not fully observed. The method-twice-weighted multiple interval estimation of a marginal structural model-was developed in order to analyze the cost-effectiveness of treatment protocols for advanced dementia residents living nursing homes when they become acutely ill. A key feature of this estimation approach is that it facilitates a sensitivity analysis that identifies the potential effects of unmeasured confounding on the conclusions concerning cost-effectiveness.

  3. MESSOC capabilities and results. [Model for Estimating Space Station Opertions Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert

    1990-01-01

    MESSOC (Model for Estimating Space Station Operations Costs) is the result of a multi-year effort by NASA to understand and model the mature operations cost of Space Station Freedom. This paper focuses on MESSOC's ability to contribute to life-cycle cost analyses through its logistics equations and databases. Together, these afford MESSOC the capability to project not only annual logistics costs for a variety of Space Station scenarios, but critical non-cost logistics results such as annual Station maintenance crewhours, upweight/downweight, and on-orbit sparing availability as well. MESSOC results using current logistics databases and baseline scenario have already shown important implications for on-orbit maintenance approaches, space transportation systems, and international operations cost sharing.

  4. Reduced Multivariate Polynomial Model for Manufacturing Costs Estimation of Piping Elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nibaldo Rodriguez

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the development and evaluation of an estimation model of manufacturing costs of piping elements through the application of a Reduced Multivariate Polynomial (RMP. The model allows obtaining accurate estimations, even when enough and adequate information is not available. This situation typically occurs in the early stages of the design process of industrial products. The experimental evaluations show that the approach is capable, with a low complexity, of reducing uncertainties and to predict costs with significant precision. Comparisons with a neural network showed also that the RMP performs better considering a set of classical performance measures with the corresponding lower complexity and higher accuracy.

  5. The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankar Prinja

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. METHODS: We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. RESULTS: We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73 per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8% of the GDP for universalizing health care services. CONCLUSION: The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

  6. A model to estimate the cost effectiveness of the indoorenvironment improvements in office work

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seppanen, Olli; Fisk, William J.

    2004-06-01

    Deteriorated indoor climate is commonly related to increases in sick building syndrome symptoms, respiratory illnesses, sick leave, reduced comfort and losses in productivity. The cost of deteriorated indoor climate for the society is high. Some calculations show that the cost is higher than the heating energy costs of the same buildings. Also building-level calculations have shown that many measures taken to improve indoor air quality and climate are cost-effective when the potential monetary savings resulting from an improved indoor climate are included as benefits gained. As an initial step towards systemizing these building level calculations we have developed a conceptual model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of various measures. The model shows the links between the improvements in the indoor environment and the following potential financial benefits: reduced medical care cost, reduced sick leave, better performance of work, lower turn over of employees, and lower cost of building maintenance due to fewer complaints about indoor air quality and climate. The pathways to these potential benefits from changes in building technology and practices go via several human responses to the indoor environment such as infectious diseases, allergies and asthma, sick building syndrome symptoms, perceived air quality, and thermal environment. The model also includes the annual cost of investments, operation costs, and cost savings of improved indoor climate. The conceptual model illustrates how various factors are linked to each other. SBS symptoms are probably the most commonly assessed health responses in IEQ studies and have been linked to several characteristics of buildings and IEQ. While the available evidence indicates that SBS symptoms can affect these outcomes and suspects that such a linkage exists, at present we can not quantify the relationships sufficiently for cost-benefit modeling. New research and analyses of existing data to quantify the financial

  7. Economic modelling approaches to cost estimates for the control of carbon dioxide emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Z.X.; Folmer, H.

    1998-01-01

    This article gives an assessment of the relative strengths and weaknesses of a variety of economic modelling approaches commonly used for cost estimates for limiting carbon emissions, including the ad hoc approach, dynamic optimization approach, input-output approach, macroeconomic approach, computa

  8. Software cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemstra, F.J.

    1992-01-01

    The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

  9. Evaluation of the Cost Estimation Models: Case Study of Task Manager Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Mugahed Al Qmase

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The need to accurately estimate time and cost for effective planning of software projects is becoming crucial driven by the escalating demands of the software market. Several models proposed in the history of Software Engineering discipline to estimate time, costs associated with planning and managing software projects as Line of Code (LOC, Function Point (FP and Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO. This paper focuses upon the COCOMO Model. It is further consisted of its two sub models called COCOMO I and COCOMO II. The primary objective of this research is to use an appropriate case study to evaluate the accuracy of the sub models COCOMO I and II and ascertain the variation of the realistic resource effort, staff and time. The findings to date show that the Application Composition Model of COCOMO II is more accurate in determining time and cost for the successful conclusion of a software project than the other two COCOMO I and II Models for a similar application for example Task Manager.

  10. AN ENHANCED MODEL TO ESTIMATE EFFORT, PERFORMANCE AND COST OF THE SOFTWARE PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pauline

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The Authors have proposed a model that first captures the fundamentals of software metrics in the phase 1 consisting of three primitive primary software engineering metrics; they are person-months (PM, function-points (FP, and lines of code (LOC. The phase 2 consists of the proposed function point which is obtained by grouping the adjustment factors to simplify the process of adjustment and to ensure more consistency in the adjustments. In the proposed method fuzzy logic is used for quantifying the quality of requirements and is added as one of the adjustment factor, thus a fuzzy based approach for the Enhanced General System Characteristics to Estimate Effort of the Software Projects using productivity has been obtained. The phase 3 takes the calculated function point from our work and is given as input to the static single variable model (i.e. to the Intermediate COCOMO and COCOMO II for cost estimation. The Authors have tailored the cost factors in intermediate COCOMO and both; cost and scale factors are tailored in COCOMO II to suite to the individual development environment, which is very important for the accuracy of the cost estimates. The software performance indicators are project duration, schedule predictability, requirements completion ratio and post-release defect density, are also measured for the software projects in my work. A comparative study for effort, performance measurement and cost estimation of the software project is done between the existing model and the authors proposed work. Thus our work analyzes the interaction¬al process through which the estimation tasks were collectively accomplished.

  11. African Programme For Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2015: model-estimated health impact and cost.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luc E Coffeng

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015. METHODS AND FINDINGS: With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million. CONCLUSIONS: Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.

  12. Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with other Recent Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report compares hydrogen station cost estimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other cost estimates. These other cost estimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

  13. Estimation Model of Spacecraft Parameters and Cost Based on a Statistical Analysis of COMPASS Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerberich, Matthew W.; Oleson, Steven R.

    2013-01-01

    The Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team at Glenn Research Center has performed integrated system analysis of conceptual spacecraft mission designs since 2006 using a multidisciplinary concurrent engineering process. The set of completed designs was archived in a database, to allow for the study of relationships between design parameters. Although COMPASS uses a parametric spacecraft costing model, this research investigated the possibility of using a top-down approach to rapidly estimate the overall vehicle costs. This paper presents the relationships between significant design variables, including breakdowns of dry mass, wet mass, and cost. It also develops a model for a broad estimate of these parameters through basic mission characteristics, including the target location distance, the payload mass, the duration, the delta-v requirement, and the type of mission, propulsion, and electrical power. Finally, this paper examines the accuracy of this model in regards to past COMPASS designs, with an assessment of outlying spacecraft, and compares the results to historical data of completed NASA missions.

  14. A Gaussian mixture model based cost function for parameter estimation of chaotic biological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekofteh, Yasser; Jafari, Sajad; Sprott, Julien Clinton; Hashemi Golpayegani, S. Mohammad Reza; Almasganj, Farshad

    2015-02-01

    As we know, many biological systems such as neurons or the heart can exhibit chaotic behavior. Conventional methods for parameter estimation in models of these systems have some limitations caused by sensitivity to initial conditions. In this paper, a novel cost function is proposed to overcome those limitations by building a statistical model on the distribution of the real system attractor in state space. This cost function is defined by the use of a likelihood score in a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) which is fitted to the observed attractor generated by the real system. Using that learned GMM, a similarity score can be defined by the computed likelihood score of the model time series. We have applied the proposed method to the parameter estimation of two important biological systems, a neuron and a cardiac pacemaker, which show chaotic behavior. Some simulated experiments are given to verify the usefulness of the proposed approach in clean and noisy conditions. The results show the adequacy of the proposed cost function.

  15. A Novel Algorithmic Cost Estimation Model Based on Soft Computing Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iman Attarzadeh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Software development effort estimation is the process of predicting the most realistic use of effort required for developing software based on some parameters. It has always characterized one of the biggest challenges in Computer Science for the last decades. Because time and cost estimate at the early stages of the software development are the most difficult to obtain and they are often the least accurate. Traditional algorithmic techniques such as regression models, Software Life Cycle Management (SLIM, COCOMO II model and function points, require an estimation process in a long term. But, nowadays that is not acceptable for software developers and companies. Newer soft computing techniques to effort estimation based on non-algorithmic techniques such as Fuzzy Logic (FL may offer an alternative for solving the problem. This work aims to propose a new fuzzy logic realistic model to achieve more accuracy in software effort estimation. The main objective of this research was to investigate the role of fuzzy logic technique in improving the effort estimation accuracy by characterizing inputs parameters using two-side Gaussian function which gave superior transition from one interval to another. Approach: The methodology adopted in this study was use of fuzzy logic approach rather than classical intervals in the COCOMO II. Using advantages of fuzzy logic such as fuzzy sets, inputs parameters can be specified by distribution of its possible values and these fuzzy sets were represented by membership functions. In this study to get a smoother transition in the membership function for input parameters, its associated linguistic values were represented by two-side Gaussian Membership Functions (2-D GMF and rules. Results: After analyzing the results attained by means of applying COCOMO II and proposed model based on fuzzy logic to the NASA dataset and created an artificial dataset, it had been found that proposed model was performing

  16. Estimation of CO2 Transport Costs in South Korea Using a Techno-Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwangu Kang

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a techno–economic model was used to calculate the costs of CO2 transport and specify the major equipment required for transport in order to demonstrate and implement CO2 sequestration in the offshore sediments of South Korea. First, three different carbon capture and storage demonstration scenarios were set up involving the use of three CO2 capture plants and one offshore storage site. Each transport scenario considered both the pipeline transport and ship transport options. The temperature and pressure conditions of CO2 in each transport stage were determined from engineering and economic viewpoints, and the corresponding specifications and equipment costs were calculated. The transport costs for a 1 MtCO2/year transport rate were estimated to be US$33/tCO2 and US$28/tCO2 for a pipeline transport of ~530 km and ship transport of ~724 km, respectively. Through the economies of scale effect, the pipeline and ship transport costs for a transport rate of 3 MtCO2/year were reduced to approximately US$21/tCO2 and US$23/tCO2, respectively. A CO2 hub terminal did not significantly reduce the cost because of the short distance from the hub to the storage site and the small number of captured sources.

  17. A vendor managed inventory model using continuous approximations for route length estimates and Markov chain modeling for cost estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian; Turkensteen, Marcel

    2014-01-01

    We consider a vendor that supplies a set of geographically dispersed retailers and that can monitor the inventory levels at the retailers. Such an arrangement is often called Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI). The dispatch of a vehicle is made to a fixed group of retailers. Normally, the inventory...... levels at the vendor’s warehouse and at the retailers are established by modeling the problem as a Joint Replenishment Problem (JRP). This fixed set-up cost ignores the differences in distances, number of retailers visited and vehicle load that may occur, in particular when these retailers are served...

  18. Estimating the costs of induced abortion in Uganda: a model-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babigumira, Joseph B; Stergachis, Andy; Veenstra, David L; Gardner, Jacqueline S; Ngonzi, Joseph; Mukasa-Kivunike, Peter; Garrison, Louis P

    2011-12-06

    The demand for induced abortions in Uganda is high despite legal and moral proscriptions. Abortion seekers usually go to illegal, hidden clinics where procedures are performed in unhygienic environments by under-trained practitioners. These abortions, which are usually unsafe, lead to a high rate of severe complications and use of substantial, scarce healthcare resources. This study was performed to estimate the costs associated with induced abortions in Uganda. A decision tree was developed to represent the consequences of induced abortion and estimate the costs of an average case. Data were obtained from a primary chart abstraction study, an on-going prospective study, and the published literature. Societal costs, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect (productivity) costs, costs to patients, and costs to the government were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty. The average societal cost per induced abortion (95% credibility range) was $177 ($140-$223). This is equivalent to $64 million in annual national costs. Of this, the average direct medical cost was $65 ($49-86) and the average direct non-medical cost was $19 ($16-$23). The average indirect cost was $92 ($57-$139). Patients incurred $62 ($46-$83) on average while government incurred $14 ($10-$20) on average. Induced abortions are associated with substantial costs in Uganda and patients incur the bulk of the healthcare costs. This reinforces the case made by other researchers--that efforts by the government to reduce unsafe abortions by increasing contraceptive coverage or providing safe, legal abortions are critical.

  19. Estimating the costs of induced abortion in Uganda: A model-based analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The demand for induced abortions in Uganda is high despite legal and moral proscriptions. Abortion seekers usually go to illegal, hidden clinics where procedures are performed in unhygienic environments by under-trained practitioners. These abortions, which are usually unsafe, lead to a high rate of severe complications and use of substantial, scarce healthcare resources. This study was performed to estimate the costs associated with induced abortions in Uganda. Methods A decision tree was developed to represent the consequences of induced abortion and estimate the costs of an average case. Data were obtained from a primary chart abstraction study, an on-going prospective study, and the published literature. Societal costs, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect (productivity) costs, costs to patients, and costs to the government were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty. Results The average societal cost per induced abortion (95% credibility range) was $177 ($140-$223). This is equivalent to $64 million in annual national costs. Of this, the average direct medical cost was $65 ($49-86) and the average direct non-medical cost was $19 ($16-$23). The average indirect cost was $92 ($57-$139). Patients incurred $62 ($46-$83) on average while government incurred $14 ($10-$20) on average. Conclusion Induced abortions are associated with substantial costs in Uganda and patients incur the bulk of the healthcare costs. This reinforces the case made by other researchers--that efforts by the government to reduce unsafe abortions by increasing contraceptive coverage or providing safe, legal abortions are critical. PMID:22145859

  20. Fractionation of Whey Protein Isolate with Supercritical Carbon Dioxide—Process Modeling and Cost Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew McAloon

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available An economical and environmentally friendly whey protein fractionation process was developed using supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2 as an acid to produce enriched fractions of α-lactalbumin (α-LA and β-lactoglobulin (β-LG from a commercial whey protein isolate (WPI containing 20% α-LA and 55% β-LG, through selective precipitation of α-LA. Pilot-scale experiments were performed around the optimal parameter range (T = 60 to 65 °C, P = 8 to 31 MPa, C = 5 to 15% (w/w WPI to quantify the recovery rates of the individual proteins and the compositions of both fractions as a function of processing conditions. Mass balances were calculated in a process flow-sheet to design a large-scale, semi-continuous process model using SuperproDesigner® software. Total startup and production costs were estimated as a function of processing parameters, product yield and purity. Temperature, T, pressure, P, and concentration, C, showed conflicting effects on equipment costs and the individual precipitation rates of the two proteins, affecting the quantity, quality, and production cost of the fractions considerably. The highest α-LA purity, 61%, with 80% α-LA recovery in the solid fraction, was obtained at T = 60 °C, C = 5% WPI, P = 8.3 MPa, with a production cost of $8.65 per kilogram of WPI treated. The most profitable conditions resulted in 57%-pure α-LA, with 71% α-LA recovery in the solid fraction and 89% β-LG recovery in the soluble fraction, and production cost of $5.43 per kilogram of WPI treated at T = 62 °C, C = 10% WPI and P = 5.5 MPa. The two fractions are ready-to-use, new food ingredients with a pH of 6.7 and contain no residual acid or chemical contaminants.

  1. Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trivailo, O.; Sippel, M.; Şekercioğlu, Y. A.

    2012-08-01

    The primary purpose of this paper is to review currently existing cost estimation methods, models, tools and resources applicable to the space sector. While key space sector methods are outlined, a specific focus is placed on hardware cost estimation on a system level, particularly for early mission phases during which specifications and requirements are not yet crystallised, and information is limited. For the space industry, cost engineering within the systems engineering framework is an integral discipline. The cost of any space program now constitutes a stringent design criterion, which must be considered and carefully controlled during the entire program life cycle. A first step to any program budget is a representative cost estimate which usually hinges on a particular estimation approach, or methodology. Therefore appropriate selection of specific cost models, methods and tools is paramount, a difficult task given the highly variable nature, scope as well as scientific and technical requirements applicable to each program. Numerous methods, models and tools exist. However new ways are needed to address very early, pre-Phase 0 cost estimation during the initial program research and establishment phase when system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be established and defined. Due to their specificity, for vehicles such as reusable launchers with a manned capability, a lack of historical data implies that using either the classic heuristic approach such as parametric cost estimation based on underlying CERs, or the analogy approach, is therefore, by definition, limited. This review identifies prominent cost estimation models applied to the space sector, and their underlying cost driving parameters and factors. Strengths, weaknesses, and suitability to specific mission types and classes are also highlighted. Current approaches which strategically amalgamate various cost estimation strategies both for formulation and validation

  2. Enhance accuracy in Software cost and schedule estimation by using "Uncertainty Analysis and Assessment" in the system modeling process

    CERN Document Server

    Vasantrao, Kardile Vilas

    2011-01-01

    Accurate software cost and schedule estimation are essential for software project success. Often it referred to as the "black art" because of its complexity and uncertainty, software estimation is not as difficult or puzzling as people think. In fact, generating accurate estimates is straightforward-once you understand the intensity of uncertainty and framework for the modeling process. The mystery to successful software estimation-distilling academic information and real-world experience into a practical guide for working software professionals. Instead of arcane treatises and rigid modeling techniques, this will guide highlights a proven set of procedures, understandable formulas, and heuristics that individuals and development teams can apply to their projects to help achieve estimation proficiency with choose appropriate development approaches In the early stage of software life cycle project manager are inefficient to estimate the effort, schedule, cost estimation and its development approach .This in tu...

  3. Software Development Cost Estimation Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Stepien

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Early estimation of project size and completion time is essential for successful project planning and tracking. Multiple methods have been proposed to estimate software size and cost parameters. Suitability of the estimation methods depends on many factors like software application domain, product complexity, availability of historical data, team expertise etc. Most common and widely used estimation techniques are described and analyzed. Current research trends in software estimation cost are also presented.

  4. Systematic screening for Chlamydia trachomatis : Estimating cost-effectiveness using dynamic modeling and Dutch data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, R.; Van Bergen, J.E.A.M.; de Jong-van den Berg, Lolkje; Postma, Maarten

    2006-01-01

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a systematic one-off Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) screening program including partner treatment for Dutch young adults. Data on infection prevalence, participation rates, and sexual behavior were obtained from a large pilot study conducted in The Netherlands. Oppo

  5. An Integrated BIM and Cost Estimating Blended Learning Model--Acceptance Differences between Experts and Novice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yun-Wu; Wen, Ming-Hui; Chen, Ching-Ming; Hsu, I-Ting

    2016-01-01

    "Building information technology" and "cost estimating" are two core skills of construction education. However, in traditional education, students learn these two important subjects in separate courses. This study proposes a blended learning environment which can provide students with support for their face-to-face learning…

  6. Estimating FttH and FttCurb Deployment Costs Using Geometric Models with Enhanced Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Phillipson, F.

    2015-01-01

    The need for higher bandwidth by customers urges the network providers to upgrade their networks. Fibre to the home or Fibre to the curb are two of the scenarios that are considered. To make a proper assessment on the economic viability, a good estimation of the roll-out costs of the networks are im

  7. Acquisition Cost/Price Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    REVIEW AND VALIDATION, (3) RESEARCH AND METHODOLOGY AND (4) DATA ANALYSIS. THESE FUNCTIONAL THRUSTS ARE IN TURN FOCUSED TO ESTIMATING AND ANALISIS ...ANALYSIS OF COST ISSUES -- TO PROVIDE CONSISTENCY AND COMPLETENESS OF ESTIMATES PREPARED BY OTHER FUNCTIONAL ACTIVITIES. MANAGERIAL 1. COST ANALISIS HAS

  8. Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) manufacturing of advanced therapy medicinal products: a novel tailored model for optimizing performance and estimating costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou-El-Enein, Mohamed; Römhild, Andy; Kaiser, Daniel; Beier, Carola; Bauer, Gerhard; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Reinke, Petra

    2013-03-01

    Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMP) have gained considerable attention in academia due to their therapeutic potential. Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) principles ensure the quality and sterility of manufacturing these products. We developed a model for estimating the manufacturing costs of cell therapy products and optimizing the performance of academic GMP-facilities. The "Clean-Room Technology Assessment Technique" (CTAT) was tested prospectively in the GMP facility of BCRT, Berlin, Germany, then retrospectively in the GMP facility of the University of California-Davis, California, USA. CTAT is a two-level model: level one identifies operational (core) processes and measures their fixed costs; level two identifies production (supporting) processes and measures their variable costs. The model comprises several tools to measure and optimize performance of these processes. Manufacturing costs were itemized using adjusted micro-costing system. CTAT identified GMP activities with strong correlation to the manufacturing process of cell-based products. Building best practice standards allowed for performance improvement and elimination of human errors. The model also demonstrated the unidirectional dependencies that may exist among the core GMP activities. When compared to traditional business models, the CTAT assessment resulted in a more accurate allocation of annual expenses. The estimated expenses were used to set a fee structure for both GMP facilities. A mathematical equation was also developed to provide the final product cost. CTAT can be a useful tool in estimating accurate costs for the ATMPs manufactured in an optimized GMP process. These estimates are useful when analyzing the cost-effectiveness of these novel interventions. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. A conceptual model to estimate cost effectiveness of the indoor environment improvements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seppanen, Olli; Fisk, William J.

    2003-06-01

    Macroeconomic analyses indicate a high cost to society of a deteriorated indoor climate. The few example calculations performed to date indicate that measures taken to improve IEQ are highly cost-effective when health and productivity benefits are considered. We believe that cost-benefit analyses of building designs and operations should routinely incorporate health and productivity impacts. As an initial step, we developed a conceptual model that shows the links between improvements in IEQ and the financial gains from reductions in medical care and sick leave, improved work performance, lower employee turn over, and reduced maintenance due to fewer complaints.

  10. Estimating health care cost savings from an educational intervention to prevent bleeding-related complications: the outcomes impact analysis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravyn, Dana; Ravyn, Vipa; Lowney, Rob; Ferraris, Victor

    2014-01-01

    Investments in continuing medical education (CME) exceed $2 billion annually, but few studies report the economic impact of CME activities. Analysis of patient-level economic outcomes data is often not feasible. Accordingly, we developed a model to illustrate estimation of the potential economic impact associated with CME activity outcomes. Outcomes impact analysis demonstrated how costs averted from a CME symposium that promoted prevention of bleeding-related complications (BRC) and reoperation for bleeding (RFB) in cardiac and thoracic operations could be estimated. Model parameter estimates were from published studies of costs associated with BRC and RFB. Operative volume estimates came from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons workforce data. The base case predicted 3 in 10 participants preventing one BRC or RFB in 2% or 1.5% of annual operations, respectively. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) evaluated the effect of parameter uncertainty. 92% of participants (n = 133) self-reported commitment to change, a validated measure of behavior change. For BRC, estimates for costs averted were $1,502,769 (95% confidence interval [CI], $869,860-$2,359,068) for cardiac operations and $2,715,246 (95% CI, $1,590,308-$4,217,092) for thoracic operations. For RFB, the savings estimates were $2,233,988 (95% CI, $1,223,901-$3,648,719). Our economic model demonstrates that application of CME-related learning to prevent bleeding complications may yield substantial cost savings. Model prediction of averted costs associated with CME allows estimation of the economic impact on outcomes in the absence of patient-level outcomes data related to CME activities. © 2014 The Alliance for Continuing Education in the Health Professions, the Society for Academic Continuing Medical Education, and the Council on Continuing Medical Education, Association for Hospital Medical Education.

  11. The Psychology of Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Andy

    2016-01-01

    Cost estimation for large (and even not so large) government programs is a challenge. The number and magnitude of cost overruns associated with large Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs highlight the difficulties in developing and promulgating accurate cost estimates. These overruns can be the result of inadequate technology readiness or requirements definition, the whims of politicians or government bureaucrats, or even as failures of the cost estimating profession itself. However, there may be another reason for cost overruns that is right in front of us, but only recently have we begun to grasp it: the fact that cost estimators and their customers are human. The last 70+ years of research into human psychology and behavioral economics have yielded amazing findings into how we humans process and use information to make judgments and decisions. What these scientists have uncovered is surprising: humans are often irrational and illogical beings, making decisions based on factors such as emotion and perception, rather than facts and data. These built-in biases to our thinking directly affect how we develop our cost estimates and how those cost estimates are used. We cost estimators can use this knowledge of biases to improve our cost estimates and also to improve how we communicate and work with our customers. By understanding how our customers think, and more importantly, why they think the way they do, we can have more productive relationships and greater influence. By using psychology to our advantage, we can more effectively help the decision maker and our organizations make fact-based decisions.

  12. Tunnel Cost-Estimating Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-10-01

    8 ae1e 066 c LINING CALCULATES THE LINING COSTS AND THE FORMWORK COST FOR A 982928 ees C TUNNEL OR SHAFT SEGMENT 682636 0066...AD-AIO . 890 ARMY ENGINEER WATERWAYS EXPERIMENT STATION VICKSBURGETC F/B 13/13 TUNNEL COST-ESTIMATING METNDS(U) OCT 81 R D BENNETT UNCLASSIFIED WES...TR/L-81-101-3lEEEEEE EIIIl-IIIIIIIu IIIIEIIIEIIIIE llllEEEEllEEEI EEEEEEEEEIIII C EllTE-CHNICAL RGPORT GL-81-10 LI10 TUNNEL COST-ESTIMATING METHODS by

  13. COST ESTIMATING RELATIONSHIPS IN ONSHORE DRILLING PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo de Melo e Silva Accioly

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimating relationships (CERs are very important tools in the planning phases of an upstream project. CERs are, in general, multiple regression models developed to estimate the cost of a particular item or scope of a project. They are based in historical data that should pass through a normalization process before fitting a model. In the early phases they are the primary tool for cost estimating. In later phases they are usually used as an estimation validation tool and sometimes for benchmarking purposes. As in any other modeling methodology there are number of important steps to build a model. In this paper the process of building a CER to estimate drilling cost of onshore wells will be addressed.

  14. A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs--a case study for the Gulf of Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montewka, Jakub; Weckström, Mia; Kujala, Pentti

    2013-11-15

    Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

  15. Substitution and price elasticity estimates using inter-countrypooled data in a translog cost model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roy, Joyashree; Sanstad, Alan H.; Sathaye, Jayant A.; Khaddaria,Raman

    2006-06-01

    Pooled data across several developing countries and the U.S. were used to estimate long-run substitution and price elasticities ina translog framework for the paper, iron and steel, and aggregatemanufacturing industries. While the quality of the estimates variesacross the several industry-specific models, the results suggest highervalues for these elasticities than appear commonly used in integratedassessment models. Estimates of own-price elasticities of energy rangefrom - 0.80 to - 1.76 and are comparable to estimates from previouseconometric studies in the context of developed countries (- 0.77 to -0.87). Substitution elasticities show wider variation across countriesand industries. For energy and capital they range from -1.96 to 9.80, forlabor and energy from 2.61 to 7.11, and for energy and material from -0.26 to 2.07.

  16. Guideline to Estimate Decommissioning Costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Taesik; Kim, Younggook; Oh, Jaeyoung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The primary objective of this work is to provide guidelines to estimate the decommissioning cost as well as the stakeholders with plausible information to understand the decommissioning activities in a reasonable manner, which eventually contribute to acquiring the public acceptance for the nuclear power industry. Although several cases of the decommissioning cost estimate have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific and economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those cost estimates and compare them with that of a relevant plant. Trustworthy cost estimates are crucial to plan a safe and economic decommissioning project. The typical approach is to break down the decommissioning project into a series of discrete and measurable work activities. Although plant specific differences derived from the economic and technical assumptions make a licensee difficult to estimate reliable decommissioning costs, estimating decommissioning costs is the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of activities from the planning to the final evaluation on whether a decommissioning project has successfully been preceded from the perspective of safety and economic points. Hence, it is clear that tenacious efforts should be needed to successfully perform the decommissioning project.

  17. Data Service Provider Cost Estimation Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, Kathy; Hunolt, Greg; Booth, Arthur L.; Banks, Mel

    2011-01-01

    The Data Service Provider Cost Estimation Tool (CET) and Comparables Database (CDB) package provides to NASA s Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) the ability to estimate the full range of year-by-year lifecycle cost estimates for the implementation and operation of data service providers required by ESE to support its science and applications programs. The CET can make estimates dealing with staffing costs, supplies, facility costs, network services, hardware and maintenance, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software licenses, software development and sustaining engineering, and the changes in costs that result from changes in workload. Data Service Providers may be stand-alone or embedded in flight projects, field campaigns, research or applications projects, or other activities. The CET and CDB package employs a cost-estimation-by-analogy approach. It is based on a new, general data service provider reference model that provides a framework for construction of a database by describing existing data service providers that are analogs (or comparables) to planned, new ESE data service providers. The CET implements the staff effort and cost estimation algorithms that access the CDB and generates the lifecycle cost estimate for a new data services provider. This data creates a common basis for an ESE proposal evaluator for considering projected data service provider costs.

  18. A Transmission-Cost-Based Model to Estimate the Amount of Market-Integrable Wind Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales González, Juan Miguel; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    In the pursuit of the large-scale integration of wind power production, it is imperative to evaluate plausible frictions among the stochastic nature of wind generation, electricity markets, and the investments in transmission required to accommodate larger amounts of wind. If wind producers......-cost perspective. This model accounts for the uncertain character of wind by using a modeling framework based on stochastic optimization, simulates market barriers by means of a bi-level structure, and considers the financial risk of investments in transmission through the conditional value-at-risk. The major...

  19. Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Prevention Programmes in Vietnam, 2006-2010: A Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quang Duy Pham

    Full Text Available Vietnam has been largely reliant on international support in its HIV response. Over 2006-2010, a total of US$480 million was invested in its HIV programmes, more than 70% of which came from international sources. This study investigates the potential epidemiological impacts of these programmes and their cost-effectiveness.We conducted a data synthesis of HIV programming, spending, epidemiological, and clinical outcomes. Counterfactual scenarios were defined based on assumed programme coverage and behaviours had the programmes not been implemented. An epidemiological model, calibrated to reflect the actual epidemiological trends, was used to estimate plausible ranges of programme impacts. The model was then used to estimate the costs per averted infection, death, and disability adjusted life-year (DALY.Based on observed prevalence reductions amongst most population groups, and plausible counterfactuals, modelling suggested that antiretroviral therapy (ART and prevention programmes over 2006-2010 have averted an estimated 50,600 [95% uncertainty bound: 36,300-68,900] new infections and 42,600 [36,100-54,100] deaths, resulting in 401,600 [312,200-496,300] fewer DALYs across all population groups. HIV programmes in Vietnam have cost an estimated US$1,972 [1,447-2,747], US$2,344 [1,843-2,765], and US$248 [201-319] for each averted infection, death, and DALY, respectively.Our evaluation suggests that HIV programmes in Vietnam have most likely had benefits that are cost-effective. ART and direct HIV prevention were the most cost-effective interventions in reducing HIV disease burden.

  20. Estimating the implied cost of carbon in future scenarios using a CGE model: The Case of Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hannum, Christopher; Cutler, Harvey; Iverson, Terrence; Keyser, David

    2017-03-01

    Using Colorado as a case study, we develop a state-level computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that reflects the roles of coal, natural gas, wind, solar, and hydroelectricity in supplying electricity. We focus on the economic impact of implementing Colorado's existing Renewable Portfolio Standard, updated in 2013. This requires that 25% of state generation come from qualifying renewable sources by 2020. We evaluate the policy under a variety of assumptions regarding wind integration costs and assumptions on the persistence of federal subsidies for wind. Specifically, we estimate the implied price of carbon as the carbon price at which a state-level policy would pass a state-level cost-benefit analysis, taking account of estimated greenhouse gas emission reductions and ancillary benefits from corresponding reductions in criteria pollutants. Our findings suggest that without the Production Tax Credit (federal aid), the state policy of mandating renewable power generation (RPS) is costly to state actors, with an implied cost of carbon of about $17 per ton of CO2 with a 3% discount rate. Federal aid makes the decision between natural gas and wind nearly cost neutral for Colorado.

  1. Statistical methods of estimating mining costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K.R.

    2011-01-01

    Until it was defunded in 1995, the U.S. Bureau of Mines maintained a Cost Estimating System (CES) for prefeasibility-type economic evaluations of mineral deposits and estimating costs at producing and non-producing mines. This system had a significant role in mineral resource assessments to estimate costs of developing and operating known mineral deposits and predicted undiscovered deposits. For legal reasons, the U.S. Geological Survey cannot update and maintain CES. Instead, statistical tools are under development to estimate mining costs from basic properties of mineral deposits such as tonnage, grade, mineralogy, depth, strip ratio, distance from infrastructure, rock strength, and work index. The first step was to reestimate "Taylor's Rule" which relates operating rate to available ore tonnage. The second step was to estimate statistical models of capital and operating costs for open pit porphyry copper mines with flotation concentrators. For a sample of 27 proposed porphyry copper projects, capital costs can be estimated from three variables: mineral processing rate, strip ratio, and distance from nearest railroad before mine construction began. Of all the variables tested, operating costs were found to be significantly correlated only with strip ratio.

  2. Statistical Cost Estimation in Higher Education: Some Alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkman, Paul T.; Niwa, Shelley

    Recent developments in econometrics that are relevant to the task of estimating costs in higher education are reviewed. The relative effectiveness of alternative statistical procedures for estimating costs are also tested. Statistical cost estimation involves three basic parts: a model, a data set, and an estimation procedure. Actual data are used…

  3. Cost Estimates and Investment Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emhjellen, Kjetil; Emhjellen Magne; Osmundsen, Petter

    2001-08-01

    When evaluating new investment projects, oil companies traditionally use the discounted cashflow method. This method requires expected cashflows in the numerator and a risk adjusted required rate of return in the denominator in order to calculate net present value. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a project is one of the major cashflows used to calculate net present value. Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. In the oil industry and many other industries, it is common practice to report a CAPEX that is the estimated 50/50 (median) CAPEX instead of the estimated expected (expected value) CAPEX. In this article we demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX, when the cost distributions are asymmetric, causes project valuation errors and therefore may lead to wrong investment decisions with acceptance of projects that have negative net present values. (author)

  4. Estimating cost-effectiveness in public health: a summary of modelling and valuation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; Phillips, Ceri J; Fordham, Richard; Bertranou, Evelina; Hale, Janine

    2012-09-03

    It is acknowledged that economic evaluation methods as they have been developed for Health Technology Assessment do not capture all the costs and benefits relevant to the assessment of public health interventions. This paper reviews methods that could be employed to measure and value the broader set of benefits generated by public health interventions. It is proposed that two key developments are required if this vision is to be achieved. First, there is a trend to modelling approaches that better capture the effects of public health interventions. This trend needs to continue, and economists need to consider a broader range of modelling techniques than are currently employed to assess public health interventions. The selection and implementation of alternative modelling techniques should be facilitated by the production of better data on the behavioural outcomes generated by public health interventions. Second, economists are currently exploring a number of valuation paradigms that hold the promise of more appropriate valuation of public health interventions outcomes. These include the capabilities approach and the subjective well-being approach, both of which offer the possibility of broader measures of value than the approaches currently employed by health economists. These developments should not, however, be made by economists alone. These questions, in particular what method should be used to value public health outcomes, require social value judgements that are beyond the capacity of economists. This choice will require consultation with policy makers, and perhaps even the general public. Such collaboration would have the benefit of ensuring that the methods developed are useful for decision makers.

  5. Estimating Military Aircraft Cost Using Least Squares Support Vector Machines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Jia-yuan; ZHANG Xi-bin; ZHANG Heng-xi; REN Bo

    2004-01-01

    A multi-layer adaptive optimizing parameters algorithm is developed for improving least squares support vector machines(LS-SVM),and a military aircraft life-cycle-cost(LCC)intelligent estimation model is proposed based on the improved LS-SVM.The intelligent cost estimation process is divided into three steps in the model.In the first step,a cost-drive-factor needs to be selected,which is significant for cost estimation.In the second step,military aircraft training samples within costs and cost-drive-factor set are obtained by the LS-SVM.Then the model can be used for new type aircraft cost estimation.Chinese military aircraft costs are estimated in the paper.The results show that the estimated costs by the new model are closer to the true costs than that of the traditionally used methods.

  6. On the Estimate Method of Construction Engineering Cost Based on the RS-GA-NNA Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xie Zheng

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Given the low intelligent level and the low accuracy of valuation of civil architecture projects, we put forward in the study a constructional engineering assessment method based on Artificial Intelligence which taking advantage of data-calculation from rough set theory, genetic algorithm and neural network algorithm. First, the rough set theory is used to reduce the discrete attributes to optimize the input variables of BP neural network. And then use the global search feature of genetic algorithm to optimize the initial weight and the threshold value of BP neural network. The new algorithm covers both the global random search capability of genetic algorithm and the learning ability and robustness of neural network, thus the computational speed and accuracy have been more significantly improved than the traditional methods. To empirically analyze a case selected from a city in Hunan Province, the results show that the new algorithm model can rely on the engineering features, assess the construction costs scientifically and objectively and have high practical value.

  7. Structural Estimation of Stock Market Participation Costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers' decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial...... education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor...... income; however, it varies substantially over consumers' life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers' life cycle....

  8. Modification of the LCOE model to estimate a cost of heat and power generation for Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Bratanova, Alexandra; Robinson, Jacqueline; Wagner, Liam

    2015-01-01

    The Russian heat sector faces crucial problems including underinvestment, below cost pricing, generation capacity and infrastructure depletion. While the Russian electricity sector has gradually progressed through liberalization, the heat sector is still waiting for similar reforms to occur. The modernisation of the sector requires analysis of energy generation costs to suggest feasible technological solutions and secure an increase of investment in the industry. This study presents a modific...

  9. Estimating the opportunity costs of reducing carbon dioxide emissions via avoided deforestation, using integrated assessment modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overmars, K.P.; Stehfest, E.; Tabeau, A.A.; Meijl, van J.C.M.; Beltran, A.M.; Kram, T.

    2014-01-01

    Estimates show that, in recent years, deforestation and forest degradation accounted for about 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) is suggested to provide substantial emission reduct

  10. Cost estimation of heifer mastitis in early lactation by stochastic modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijps, K.; Vliegher, de S.; Lam, C.; Hogeveen, H.

    2009-01-01

    Heifer mastitis, reflected by an elevated somatic cell count (SCC) in early lactation (SCCel), results in a decreased milk production, a higher risk for subclinical and clinical mastitis during lactation, and an elevated culling hazard. The aims of this study were to calculate the costs of heifer ma

  11. Estimating the Costs of Preventive Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael; Porter, Michele M.; Ayers, Tim S.; Kaplan, Debra L.; Sandler, Irwin

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of cost estimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

  12. Estimating the Costs of Preventive Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E. Michael; Porter, Michele M.; Ayers, Tim S.; Kaplan, Debra L.; Sandler, Irwin

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of cost estimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

  13. 40 CFR 261.142 - Cost estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cost estimate. 261.142 Section 261.142... Materials § 261.142 Cost estimate. (a) The owner or operator must have a detailed written estimate, in... facility. (1) The estimate must equal the cost of conducting the activities described in paragraph (a)...

  14. Attrition Cost Model Instruction Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagiura, Takeshi

    2012-01-01

    This instruction manual explains in detail how to use the Attrition Cost Model program, which estimates the cost of student attrition for a state's higher education system. Programmed with SAS, this model allows users to instantly calculate the cost of attrition and the cumulative attrition rate that is based on the most recent retention and…

  15. Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Cost Estimation Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-15

    1 Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Cost Estimation Methodology Diana Angelis, Francois Melese (DRMI) John Dillard, Chip Franck (GSBPP) NAVAL...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Cost Estimation Methodology 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER...NEXT? 3 OVERVIEW • ENTERING HYPOTHESIS • TRANSACTION COST ECONOMICS (TCE) – MAKE OR BUY, AND ASSOCIATED DIFFICULTIES • OUR VIEW OF TCE AND COST

  16. African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2015: Model-Estimated Health Impact and Cost

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.E. Coffeng (Luc); W.A. Stolk (Wilma); H.G.M. Zouré (Honorat G.); J.L. Veerman (Lennert); K.B. Agblewonu (Koffi); M.E. Murdoch (Michele); M. Noma (Mounkaila); G. Fobi (Grace); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); D.A.P. Bundy (Donald A.); J.D.F. Habbema (Dik); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); U.V. Amazigo (Uche)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health

  17. A RELATIVE STUDY ON COST ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES

    OpenAIRE

    K. Jayapratha; M. Muthamizharasan

    2017-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation is one of the most important part in software development. It involves in estimating the effort and cost in terms of money to complete the software development. Software Cost Estimation is very important when lines of code for the particular project exceeds certain limit, also when the software deployed with too many bugs and uncovered requirements the project will go incomplete. Software cost estimation of a project plays a vital role in acceptance or rejection of it...

  18. Efficient particle-based estimation of marginal costs in a first-order macroscopic traffic flow model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuurbier, F.S.; Hegyi, A.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.

    2010-01-01

    Marginal costs in traffic networks are the extra costs incurred to the system as the result of extra traffic. Marginal costs are required frequently e.g. when considering system optimal traffic assignment or tolling problems. When explicitly considering spillback in a traffic flow model, one can use

  19. Cost Overruns and Cost Estimation in the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emhjellen, Magne; Emhjellen, Kjetil; Osmundsen, Petter

    2001-10-01

    Recently, a Norwegian government report on the cost overruns of projects in the North Sea was presented (NOU 1999:11). It concluded that there was a 25% increase in development costs from project sanction (POD, Plan for Operation and Development) to last CCE (Capital Cost Estimate) for the 11 oil field projects investigated. Many reasons like unclear project assumptions in early phase, optimistic interpolation of previous project assumptions, too optimistic estimates, and underestimation of uncertainty were given as reasons for overruns. In this article we highlight the possibility that the cost overruns are not necessarily all due to the reasons given, but also to an error in the estimation and reporting of the capital expenditure cost (CAPEX). Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. The oil companies report, and are required to do so by government authorities, the estimated 50/50 (median) cost estimate instead of the estimated expected value cost estimate. We demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX estimate for the 11 projects when the cost uncertainty distributions are asymmetric, may explain at least part of the ''overruns''. Hence, we advocate changing the practice of using 50/50 cost estimates instead of expected value cost estimates for project management and decision purposes. (author)

  20. Estimating management costs of protected areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Green, Jonathan M.H.; Burgess, Neil David; Green, Rhys E.

    2012-01-01

    in actual spend and over 40% of variation in necessary spend. Population pressure is a variable that has not been used to model protected area management costs before, yet proved to be considerably better at predicting both actual and necessary spend than other measures of anthropogenic pressure. We use our...... results to estimate necessary spend at a 9 km2 resolution across the EAM and highlight those areas where the management costs of effective management are predicted to be high. This information can be used by conservation planners in the region and can be estimated for future scenarios of population growth......Despite chronic underfunding for conservation and the recognition that funds must be invested wisely, few studies have analysed the direct costs of managing protected areas at the spatial scales needed to inform local site management. Using a questionnaire survey we collected data from protected...

  1. Designing a model to estimate the impact and cost effectiveness of online learning platforms

    OpenAIRE

    Meza-Bolaños, Doris Verónica; Compañ, Patricia; Satorre Cuerda, Rosana

    2016-01-01

    There are different methodologies that have attempted to measure profitability and impact of using online learning platforms, all of which focus on a set of quantifiable and non-quantifiable aspects. These methods consider different items from various perspectives. The purpose of this work is to assess each one and determine the suitable indicators applicable to the reality of higher education in Ecuador. A hybrid model with characteristics from different perspectives could be designed wit...

  2. A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, Veronica L.; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver L.

    2016-01-01

    Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth

  3. A simulation model to estimate cost-offsets for a disease-management program for chronic kidney disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandjour, Afschin; Tschulena, Ulrich; Steppan, Sonja; Gatti, Emanuele

    2015-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to develop a simulation model that analyzes cost-offsets of a hypothetical disease management program (DMP) for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Germany compared to no such program. A lifetime Markov model with simulated 65-year-old patients with CKD was developed using published data on costs and health status and simulating the progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), cardiovascular disease and death. A statutory health insurance perspective was adopted. This modeling study shows considerable potential for cost-offsets from a DMP for patients with CKD. The potential for cost-offsets increases with relative risk reduction by the DMP and baseline glomerular filtration rate. Results are most sensitive to the cost of dialysis treatment. This paper presents a general 'prototype' simulation model for the prevention of ESRD. The model allows for further modification and adaptation in future applications.

  4. Methodology for modelling plug-in electric vehicles in the power system and cost estimates for a system with either smart or dumb electric vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiviluoma, Juha; Meibom, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The article estimates the costs of plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) in a future power system as well as the benefits from smart charging and discharging EVs (smart EVs). To arrive in a good estimate, a generation planning model was used to create power plant portfolios, which were operated in a more...

  5. A model for cost estimation of system for piggery wastes treatment ponds: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldir Medri

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the results from the monitoring of a system of ponds for the treatment of piggery wastes, carried out during a 20 months period, with the objective to determine design parameters for the optimization of the treatment system. A series composed of two anaerobic ponds, one facultative pond and one water hyacinth pond, gave an efficiency of 97% in the removal of BOD5, 93% for total phosphorus, 91% for total Kjeldahl nitrogen and a removal of 7 log units for fecal coliforms. A model of the optimization incurred in the treatment of these wastes was developed, within economic concepts.Este artigo apresenta resultados do monitoramento de um sistema de lagoas para tratamento de dejetos suínos, realizados durante um período de 20 meses, com o objetivo de encontrar parâmetros operacionais para otimização do sistema de tratamento. O sistema é composto por duas lagoas anaeróbias, uma facultativa e uma de aguapés, em séries, com uma eficiência de 97% na remoção da DBO5, 93% para o fósforo total, 91% para o nitrogênio total e uma redução de 7 unidades log para os coliformes fecais. Um modelo de otimização para tratamento destes resíduos foi desenvolvido usando os conceitos econômicos.

  6. A better approach to cost estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Russ

    2013-03-01

    Using ratios of costs to charges (RCCs) to estimate costs can cause hospitals to significantly over- or under-invest in service lines. A focus on improving cost estimation in cost centers where physicians have significant control over operating expenses, such as drugs or implants, can strengthen decision making and strategic planning. Connecting patient file information to purchasing data can lead to more accurate reflections of actual costs and help hospitals gain better visibility across service lines.

  7. Product Assembly Cost Estimation Based on Artificial Neural Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for assembly cost estimation in actual manufacture during the design phase using artificial neural networks (ANN). It can support the de signers in cost effectiveness, then help to control the total cost. The method was used in the assembly cost estimation of the crucial parts of some railway stock products. As a compari son, we use the linear regression (LR) model in the same field. The result shows that ANN model performs better than the LR model in assembly cost estimation.

  8. PV O&M Cost Model and Cost Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, Andy

    2017-03-15

    This is a presentation on PV O&M cost model and cost reduction for the annual Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (2017), covering estimating PV O&M costs, polynomial expansion, and implementation of Net Present Value (NPV) and reserve account in cost models.

  9. A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castagne, S.; Curran, R.; Rothwell, A.; Price, M.; Benard, E.; Raghunathan, S.

    2008-01-01

    A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost

  10. Estimating the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle intervention programmes to prevent diabetes based on an example from Germany: Markov modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neumann Anne

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D poses a large worldwide burden for health care systems. One possible tool to decrease this burden is primary prevention. As it is unethical to wait until perfect data are available to conclude whether T2D primary prevention intervention programmes are cost-effective, we need a model that simulates the effect of prevention initiatives. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate the long-term cost-effectiveness of lifestyle intervention programmes for the prevention of T2D using a Markov model. As decision makers often face difficulties in applying health economic results, we visualise our results with health economic tools. Methods We use four-state Markov modelling with a probabilistic cohort analysis to calculate the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY gained. A one-year cycle length and a lifetime time horizon are applied. Best available evidence supplies the model with data on transition probabilities between glycaemic states, mortality risks, utility weights, and disease costs. The costs are calculated from a societal perspective. A 3% discount rate is used for costs and QALYs. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves are presented to assist decision makers. Results The model indicates that diabetes prevention interventions have the potential to be cost-effective, but the outcome reveals a high level of uncertainty. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs were negative for the intervention, ie, the intervention leads to a cost reduction for men and women aged 30 or 50 years at initiation of the intervention. For men and women aged 70 at initiation of the intervention, the ICER was EUR27,546/QALY gained and EUR19,433/QALY gained, respectively. In all cases, the QALYs gained were low. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves show that the higher the willingness-to-pay threshold value, the higher the probability that the intervention is cost-effective. Nonetheless, all curves are

  11. Cost estimation of feature oriented software development: Statistical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jawad Khan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Software cost estimation is the important part of software development and used to predict the effort which is mandatory part for development of software system. Feature Model is a set of products that represents set of feature in feature model. Software cost estimation is about predicting amount of cost in software development cycle. SCE give analysis both to user as well customer regarding to budging planning. In this paper we have represent a statistical approach for finding cost estimation of feature oriented software development. We have used CPM approach from which we will find commonality as well cost of each feature which will be deploy in feature oriented software development.

  12. Consideration of ISDC for Decommissioning Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, W. H.; Park, S. K.; Choi, Y. D.; Kim, I. S.; Moon, J. K. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-05-15

    In 2009, they decided to update the Yellow Book, and began to update it by analyzing user experiences. They found that several countries have adopted the proposed standardized cost structure for the production of cost estimates directly or for mapping national estimates onto a common structure. They also made conclusions that more detailed advice should be given on the use of the standardized structure and on the definition of cost items to avoid ambiguity. The revised cost structure, to be known as the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC), was published in 2012. The standardized cost structure developed in the report may be used for estimating the costs of decommissioning of any type of nuclear facility. We analyzed this standardized cost structure (ISDC) and applied it to DECOMMIS which was developed by KAERI. The appropriate estimation system for domestic application was examined by comparing the estimation results. KAERI made WBS code in DECOMMIS and data obtained during decommissioning work of KRR2 and UCP. Recently the IAEA updated the decommissioning cost items and its structure by ISDC. The cost estimation items of the DECOMMIS were applied to ISDC structure. For applying, the ISDC code compared with WBS code of DECOMMIS as on text of the activity name from daily report basis. The mapping result of the ISDC items to WBS code of the DECOMMIS is much different. AS results of this study that it need the corresponding cost category which classified in accordance with the national standard price estimates.

  13. Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

    2003-01-01

    Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

  14. Cost Estimating Handbook for Environmental Restoration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1990-09-01

    Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and cost estimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimated cost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for cost estimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist cost estimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals.

  15. Estimating nursing costs--a methodological review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Bea

    2009-05-01

    A critical cost accounting issue relating to nursing costs is that nursing costs are currently averaged into the daily room rate in the hospitals. This accounting practice treats nursing units as cost centers as nursing costs are bundled into a per diem rate instead of billed separately. As a result, all patients in a given care unit of the hospital are presumed to consume the same amount of nursing care resources. This costing and billing system creates a mismatch between resources consumption and billed charges. The objective of this paper is to (1) demonstrate current practice to estimate nursing costs, (2) classify nursing costs into direct and indirect costs in order to refine the existing approaches and (3) argue that a system of billing nursing costs separately better reflects the costs of patient care.

  16. A Cost Estimation Tool for Charter Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Cheryl D.; Keller, Eric

    2009-01-01

    To align their financing strategies and fundraising efforts with their fiscal needs, charter school leaders need to know how much funding they need and what that funding will support. This cost estimation tool offers a simple set of worksheets to help start-up charter school operators identify and estimate the range of costs and timing of…

  17. Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Search Costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.L. Moraga-Gonzalez (José Luis); M.R. Wildenbeest (Matthijs)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractIn a recent paper Hong and Shum (forthcoming) present a structural methodology to estimate search cost distributions. We extend their approach to the case of oligopoly and present a maximum likelihood estimate of the search cost distribution. We apply our method to a data set of online p

  18. Failing to Estimate the Costs of Offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus

    2016-01-01

    This article investigates cost estimation errors in the context of offshoring. It is argued that an imprecise estimation of the costs related to implementing a firm activity in a foreign location has a negative impact on the process performance of that activity. Performance is deterred...

  19. Demystifying the Cost Estimation Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obi, Samuel C.

    2010-01-01

    In manufacturing today, nothing is more important than giving a customer a clear and straight-forward accounting of what their money has purchased. Many potentially promising return business orders are lost because of unclear, ambiguous, or improper billing. One of the best ways of resolving cost bargaining conflicts is by providing a…

  20. Demystifying the Cost Estimation Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obi, Samuel C.

    2010-01-01

    In manufacturing today, nothing is more important than giving a customer a clear and straight-forward accounting of what their money has purchased. Many potentially promising return business orders are lost because of unclear, ambiguous, or improper billing. One of the best ways of resolving cost bargaining conflicts is by providing a…

  1. Improving patient access to cancer drugs in India: Using economic modeling to estimate a more affordable  drug cost based on measures of societal value

    OpenAIRE

    Lubbe, Martha Susanna; Dranitsaris, George; Truter, Ilse; Sriramanakoppa, Nitin N; Mendonca, Vivian M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Using multiples of India's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) as the threshold for economic value as suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO), decision analysis modeling was used to estimate a more affordable monthly cost in India for a hypothetical new cancer drug that provides a 3-month survival benefit to Indian patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). ...

  2. Handbook for cost estimating. A method for developing estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ball, J.R.; Cohen, S.; Ziegler, E.Z.

    1984-10-01

    This document provides overall guidance to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required by the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines and to assist in the assignment of priorities in resolving generic safety issues. The Handbook presents an overall cost model that allows the cost analyst to develop a chronological series of activities needed to implement a specific regulatory requirement throughout all applicable commercial LWR power plants and to identify the significant cost elements for each activity. References to available cost data are provided along with rules of thumb and cost factors to assist in evaluating each cost element. A suitable code-of-accounts data base is presented to assist in organizing and aggregating costs. Rudimentary cost analysis methods are described to allow the analyst to produce a constant-dollar, lifetime cost for the requirement. A step-by-step example cost estimate is included to demonstrate the overall use of the Handbook.

  3. Process Equipment Cost Estimation, Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loh, H. P. [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States); Lyons, Jennifer [EG& G Technical Services, Inc., Morgantown, WV (United States); White, Charles W. [EG& G Technical Services, Inc., Morgantown, WV (United States)

    2002-01-01

    This report presents generic cost curves for several equipment types generated using ICARUS Process Evaluator. The curves give Purchased Equipment Cost as a function of a capacity variable. This work was performed to assist NETL engineers and scientists in performing rapid, order of magnitude level cost estimates or as an aid in evaluating the reasonableness of cost estimates submitted with proposed systems studies or proposals for new processes. The specific equipment types contained in this report were selected to represent a relatively comprehensive set of conventional chemical process equipment types.

  4. Estimating the capital cost of underground car parking projects

    OpenAIRE

    Bastos, Mónica; Ribeiro, F. Loforte; Teixeira, José M. Cardoso

    2005-01-01

    Underground parking projects are expansive. The capital cost of underground parking project has been, and still is, one of the promoter's main economic concerns. Therefore, the capital cost estimation is an essential taskin the early stages pf underground parking projcts. In this context, the promoters mainly use cost estimation models, most of them produced by methodologies with lack of precision and with low performances. Over the last yeras Portugal has embarked ona a large programme of...

  5. Estimating Software-Development Costs With Greater Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Dan; Hihn, Jairus; Lum, Karen

    2008-01-01

    COCOMOST is a computer program for use in estimating software development costs. The goal in the development of COCOMOST was to increase estimation accuracy in three ways: (1) develop a set of sensitivity software tools that return not only estimates of costs but also the estimation error; (2) using the sensitivity software tools, precisely define the quantities of data needed to adequately tune cost estimation models; and (3) build a repository of software-cost-estimation information that NASA managers can retrieve to improve the estimates of costs of developing software for their project. COCOMOST implements a methodology, called '2cee', in which a unique combination of well-known pre-existing data-mining and software-development- effort-estimation techniques are used to increase the accuracy of estimates. COCOMOST utilizes multiple models to analyze historical data pertaining to software-development projects and performs an exhaustive data-mining search over the space of model parameters to improve the performances of effort-estimation models. Thus, it is possible to both calibrate and generate estimates at the same time. COCOMOST is written in the C language for execution in the UNIX operating system.

  6. A model study of cost estimates of decontamination and decommissioning with an emphasis to derive cost functions for alpha contaminated material using OMEGA code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kristofova, Kristina; Daniska, Vladimir; Ondra, Frantisek; Rehak, Ivan; Vasko, Marek [DECOM SLOVAKIA spol. s.r.o., Trnava (Slovakia)

    2004-12-01

    The presented study is focused on model decommissioning cost calculations for primary circuit of A-1 nuclear power plant in Jaslovske Bohunice. In addition, the survey of advanced decommissioning costing is included together with impact analyses of contamination on particular decommissioning parameters. OMEGA code decommissioning cost calculations for primary circuit of A-1 NPP presented in the study are performed and evaluated under the following conditions: different contamination level of inner and outer surfaces; different waste management scenarios; application and non-application of pre-dismantling decontamination; different start of decommissioning: 2004, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040; radionuclide composition of primary circuit contamination in A-1 NPP with occurrence of alpha radionuclides and fission products as a consequence of operational accident with damaged fuel cladding; radionuclide composition of primary circuit contamination in V-2 NPP in Jaslovske Bohunice as a representative NPP with an operation without accidents and therefore neither non-alpha contaminants nor fission products are included. The results of all the above mentioned conditions impacts on calculated costs, manpower, exposure and distribution of materials arisen from decommissioning are evaluated in detail within the calculation sensitivity analysis.

  7. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2011-01-01

    The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis...... for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS) Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital...... Preservation (CMDP), the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been...

  8. Preliminary Multivariable Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip

    2010-01-01

    Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. Previously, the authors published two single variable cost models based on 19 flight missions. The current paper presents the development of a multi-variable space telescopes cost model. The validity of previously published models are tested. Cost estimating relationships which are and are not significant cost drivers are identified. And, interrelationships between variables are explored

  9. The Prime Diabetes Model: Novel Methods for Estimating Long-Term Clinical and Cost Outcomes in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, William J; Pollock, Richard F; Saunders, Rhodri; Bae, Jay; Norrbacka, Kirsi; Boye, Kristina

    Recent publications describing long-term follow-up from landmark trials and diabetes registries represent an opportunity to revisit modeling options in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). To develop a new product-independent model capable of predicting long-term clinical and cost outcomes. After a systematic literature review to identify clinical trial and registry data, a model was developed (the PRIME Diabetes Model) to simulate T1DM progression and complication onset. The model runs as a patient-level simulation, making use of covariance matrices for cohort generation and risk factor progression, and simulating myocardial infarction, stroke, angina, heart failure, nephropathy, retinopathy, macular edema, neuropathy, amputation, hypoglycemia, ketoacidosis, mortality, and risk factor evolution. Several approaches novel to T1DM modeling were used, including patient characteristics and risk factor covariance, a glycated hemoglobin progression model derived from patient-level data, and model averaging approaches to evaluate complication risk. Validation analyses comparing modeled outcomes with published studies demonstrated that the PRIME Diabetes Model projects long-term patient outcomes consistent with those reported for a number of long-term studies. Macrovascular end points were reliably reproduced across five different populations and microvascular complication risk was accurately predicted on the basis of comparisons with landmark studies and published registry data. The PRIME Diabetes Model is product-independent, available online, and has been developed in line with good practice guidelines. Validation has indicated that outcomes from long-term studies can be reliably reproduced. The model offers new approaches to long-standing challenges in diabetes modeling and may become a valuable tool for informing health care policy. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Cost model for biobanks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Sanchez, M Beatriz; Lopez-Valeiras, Ernesto; Morente, Manuel M; Fernández Lago, Orlando

    2013-10-01

    Current economic conditions and budget constraints in publicly funded biomedical research have brought about a renewed interest in analyzing the cost and economic viability of research infrastructures. However, there are no proposals for specific cost accounting models for these types of organizations in the international scientific literature. The aim of this paper is to present the basis of a cost analysis model useful for any biobank regardless of the human biological samples that it stores for biomedical research. The development of a unique cost model for biobanks can be a complicated task due to the diversity of the biological samples they store. Different types of samples (DNA, tumor tissues, blood, serum, etc.) require different production processes. Nonetheless, the common basic steps of the production process can be identified. Thus, the costs incurred in each step can be analyzed in detail to provide cost information. Six stages and four cost objects were obtained by taking the production processes of biobanks belonging to the Spanish National Biobank Network as a starting point. Templates and examples are provided to help managers to identify and classify the costs involved in their own biobanks to implement the model. The application of this methodology will provide accurate information on cost objects, along with useful information to give an economic value to the stored samples, to analyze the efficiency of the production process and to evaluate the viability of some sample collections.

  11. Software for Estimating Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hines, Merlon M.

    2004-01-01

    A high-level parametric mathematical model for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center has been implemented as a Microsoft Excel program that generates multiple spreadsheets. The model and the program are both denoted, simply, the Cost Estimating Model (CEM). The inputs to the CEM are the parameters that describe particular tests, including test types (component or engine test), numbers and duration of tests, thrust levels, and other parameters. The CEM estimates anticipated total project costs for a specific test. Estimates are broken down into testing categories based on a work-breakdown structure and a cost-element structure. A notable historical assumption incorporated into the CEM is that total labor times depend mainly on thrust levels. As a result of a recent modification of the CEM to increase the accuracy of predicted labor times, the dependence of labor time on thrust level is now embodied in third- and fourth-order polynomials.

  12. Estimating the impact of enterprise resource planning project management decisions on post-implementation maintenance costs: a case study using simulation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryling, Meg

    2010-11-01

    Organisations often make implementation decisions with little consideration for the maintenance phase of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, resulting in significant recurring maintenance costs. Poor cost estimations are likely related to the lack of an appropriate framework for enterprise-wide pre-packaged software maintenance, which requires an ongoing relationship with the software vendor (Markus, M.L., Tanis, C., and Fenema, P.C., 2000. Multisite ERP implementation. CACM, 43 (4), 42-46). The end result is that critical project decisions are made with little empirical data, resulting in substantial long-term cost impacts. The product of this research is a formal dynamic simulation model that enables theory testing, scenario exploration and policy analysis. The simulation model ERPMAINT1 was developed by combining and extending existing frameworks in several research domains, and by incorporating quantitative and qualitative case study data. The ERPMAINT1 model evaluates tradeoffs between different ERP project management decisions and their impact on post-implementation total cost of ownership (TCO). Through model simulations a variety of dynamic insights were revealed that could assist ERP project managers. Major findings from the simulation show that upfront investments in mentoring and system exposure translate to long-term cost savings. The findings also indicate that in addition to customisations, add-ons have a significant impact on TCO.

  13. Cost analysis and estimating tools and techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Nussbaum, Daniel

    1990-01-01

    Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat­ ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap­ proaches to estimating costs are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug­ mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective­ ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli­ cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES),...

  14. The Impact of Learning Curve Model Selection and Criteria for Cost Estimation Accuracy in the DoD

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    qÜáêíÉÉåíÜ=^ååì~ä= ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ= póãéçëáìã= qÜìêëÇ~ó=pÉëëáçåë= sçäìãÉ=ff= = The Impact of Learning Curve Model Selection and Criteria for Cost...Assistant Division Director, Institute for Defense Analyses Bruce Harmon, Research Staff Member, Institute for Defense Analyses The Impact of Learning ...Army Contracting Command ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ãW= `êÉ~íáåÖ=póåÉêÖó=Ñçê=fåÑçêãÉÇ=`Ü~åÖÉ= - 469 - The Impact of Learning Curve Model

  15. Cost Model for Digital Curation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2009-01-01

    The Danish Ministry of Culture is currently funding a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project is to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future financial requirements...... for digital preservation and to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities. In this study we describe an activity based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the OAIS Reference Model. In order to estimate the cost of digital migrations we have identified cost critical...... model provides a sound overall framework for cost breakdown, but that some functions, especially when it comes to performing and evaluating the actual migration, need additional detailing in order to cost activities accurately....

  16. 48 CFR 1852.216-73 - Estimated cost and cost sharing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost and cost... and Clauses 1852.216-73 Estimated cost and cost sharing. As prescribed in 1816.307-70(a), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Cost Sharing (DEC 1991) (a) It is estimated that the total cost...

  17. 48 CFR 1552.216-76 - Estimated cost and cost-sharing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost and cost... 1552.216-76 Estimated cost and cost-sharing. As prescribed in 1516.307(c), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Cost-Sharing (APR 1996) (a) The total estimated cost of performing the work under...

  18. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murray Christopher JL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  19. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B; Murray, Christopher JL

    2003-02-26

    Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973-2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals.The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs.In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  20. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2011-01-01

    calculate the cost of different migration scenarios for a series of preservation formats for text, images, sound, video, geodata, and spreadsheets. In order to verify the model it has been tested on cost data from two different migration projects at the Danish National Archives (DNA). The study found...... Preservation (CMDP), the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been...... that the OAIS model provides a sound overall framework for the cost breakdown, but that some functions need additional detailing in order to cost activities accurately. Running the two sets of empirical data showed among other things that the model underestimates the cost of manpower-intensive migration...

  1. Cost estimate of electricity produced by TPV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palfinger, Günther; Bitnar, Bernd; Durisch, Wilhelm; Mayor, Jean-Claude; Grützmacher, Detlev; Gobrecht, Jens

    2003-05-01

    A crucial parameter for the market penetration of TPV is its electricity production cost. In this work a detailed cost estimate is performed for a Si photocell based TPV system, which was developed for electrically self-powered operation of a domestic heating system. The results are compared to a rough estimate of cost of electricity for a projected GaSb based system. For the calculation of the price of electricity, a lifetime of 20 years, an interest rate of 4.25% per year and maintenance costs of 1% of the investment are presumed. To determine the production cost of TPV systems with a power of 12-20 kW, the costs of the TPV components and 100 EUR kW-1el,peak for assembly and miscellaneous were estimated. Alternatively, the system cost for the GaSb system was derived from the cost of the photocells and from the assumption that they account for 35% of the total system cost. The calculation was done for four different TPV scenarios which include a Si based prototype system with existing technology (etasys = 1.0%), leading to 3000 EUR kW-1el,peak, an optimized Si based system using conventional, available technology (etasys = 1.5%), leading to 900 EUR kW-1el,peak, a further improved system with future technology (etasys = 5%), leading to 340 EUR kW-1el,peak and a GaSb based system (etasys = 12.3% with recuperator), leading to 1900 EUR kW-1el,peak. Thus, prices of electricity from 6 to 25 EURcents kWh-1el (including gas of about 3.5 EURcents kWh-1) were calculated and compared with those of fuel cells (31 EURcents kWh-1) and gas engines (23 EURcents kWh-1).

  2. Support to LANL: Cost estimation. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-10-04

    This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for Cost Estimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing cost estimates for DOE planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors.

  3. A general model for the estimation of societal costs of lost production and informal care in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pradelli

    2017-02-01

    reported HRQoL data with demographically matched Italian norms. Our results will be useful for cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses conducted from the perspective of the Italian society and we encourage the inclusion of these costs in economic evaluations to allow decision makers to be fully informed about the costs and consequences of their decisions on healthcare interventions.

  4. Cost Model for Digital Preservation: Cost of Digital Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Bøgvad Kejser

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The Danish Ministry of Culture has funded a project to set up a model for costing preservation of digital materials held by national cultural heritage institutions. The overall objective of the project was to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities and to provide a basis for comparing and estimating future cost requirements for digital preservation. In this study we describe an activity-based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the Open Archice Information System (OAIS Reference Model. Within this framework, which we denote the Cost Model for Digital Preservation (CMDP, the focus is on costing the functional entity Preservation Planning from the OAIS and digital migration activities. In order to estimate these costs we have identified cost-critical activities by analysing the functions in the OAIS model and the flows between them. The analysis has been supplemented with findings from the literature, and our own knowledge and experience. The identified cost-critical activities have subsequently been deconstructed into measurable components, cost dependencies have been examined, and the resulting equations expressed in a spreadsheet. Currently the model can calculate the cost of different migration scenarios for a series of preservation formats for text, images, sound, video, geodata, and spreadsheets. In order to verify the model it has been tested on cost data from two different migration projects at the Danish National Archives (DNA. The study found that the OAIS model provides a sound overall framework for the cost breakdown, but that some functions need additional detailing in order to cost activities accurately. Running the two sets of empirical data showed among other things that the model underestimates the cost of manpower-intensive migration projects, while it reinstates an often underestimated cost, which is the cost of developing migration software. The model has proven useful for estimating the

  5. Estimating Production Cost While Linking Combat Systems and Ship Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    42  1.  Royal Thai Navy CDR Peerapong’s MIO Simulation ....................42  2.  LT Joe Ashpari of the United States...Estimates for MIO Simulation Output Analysis ......................................45  Table 12.  Cost Estimates for SAR Simulation Output Analysis...Systems Engineering JIC Joint Inflation Calculator MBSE Model Based System Engineering MIO Maritime Interdiction Operations MOE Measure of

  6. PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATING PERMANENT TOTAL ENCLOSURE COSTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The paper discusses a procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure (PTE) costs. (NOTE: Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use PTEs, enclosures that mee...

  7. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles unique cost estimating requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, P.; Apgar, H.; Stukes, S.; Sterk, S.

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), also referred to as drones, are aerial platforms that fly without a human pilot onboard. UAVs are controlled autonomously by a computer in the vehicle or under the remote control of a pilot stationed at a fixed ground location. There are a wide variety of drone shapes, sizes, configurations, complexities, and characteristics. Use of these devices by the Department of Defense (DoD), NASA, civil and commercial organizations continues to grow. UAVs are commonly used for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR). They are also use for combat operations, and civil applications, such as firefighting, non-military security work, surveillance of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, power lines and country borders). UAVs are often preferred for missions that require sustained persistence (over 4 hours in duration), or are “ too dangerous, dull or dirty” for manned aircraft. Moreover, they can offer significant acquisition and operations cost savings over traditional manned aircraft. Because of these unique characteristics and missions, UAV estimates require some unique estimating methods. This paper describes a framework for estimating UAV systems total ownership cost including hardware components, software design, and operations. The challenge of collecting data, testing the sensitivities of cost drivers, and creating cost estimating relationships (CERs) for each key work breakdown structure (WBS) element is discussed. The autonomous operation of UAVs is especially challenging from a software perspective.

  8. Forecast Models for Estimating Construction Cost of Box Steel Column%钢结构箱型柱施工费用预估模式的研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐凌; 吕录娜; 邓光莲

    2016-01-01

    过去钢构制作进度预估及成本估价皆为经验法,导致施工进程须依个案加以规划。本研究利用施工现场生产力数据与影响因子,希望能建置一套施工费用预估模式。研究结果发现箱型柱制作作业具有高度重复及线性循环等特性。因此,本研究以线性回归方法建置钢结构箱型柱作业生产力预估模型。由于建置施工费用预估模式能够规划有效进程、方便管控预算成本及控制施工成本,因此可供钢结构厂预估最佳工期与成本,以减少预算损失[1]。%In the past, steel production cost and progress prediction are empirical method, leading to the construction process in accordance with the case of planning. The construction site and the influence factor of productivity data are used in this study, hoping to establish a prediction model of construction cost. The research results show that the production operation of box column has the characteristics of high repetition and linear cycle. Therefore, based on the linear regression method, this study builds the steel box column work productivity prediction model. Because the implementation of construction cost estimate model can effectively plan the process, conveniently control the budget and the construction cost, it can be used to estimate optimum duration and cost for steel structure factory in order to reduce the loss budget.

  9. 48 CFR 1352.216-70 - Estimated and allowable costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Estimated and allowable costs. As prescribed in 48 CFR 1316.307(a), insert the following clause: Estimated and Allowable Costs (APR 2010) (a) Estimated Costs. The estimated cost of this contract is... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Estimated and...

  10. Estimating the Performance and Economic Value of Multiple Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in a Production Cost Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jorgenson, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mehos, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Turchi, Craig [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-12-01

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of renewable energy in that the solar thermal energy can be dispatched similarly to conventional thermal generation. However, CSP-TES plants are energy-limited, meaning that their response might be restricted by solar availability. Therefore, the use of this limited solar energy must be optimally scheduled toprovide the greatest value to the system. The timing of CSP-TES dispatch depends on a variety of factors, including electricity demand patterns, the penetration of variable generation sources, and the configuration of the CSP-TES plant itself. We use an established CSP-TES modeling framework in a commercially available production cost model to compare the dispatch and value of two CSP-TEStechnologies (molten salt towers and parabolic troughs) in a Colorado test system. In addition, we consider a range of configuration parameters, such as the solar multiple and thermal energy storage limit, to evaluate how the operational and capacity value varies with plant configuration.

  11. The cost-effectiveness of different feeding patterns combined with prompt treatments for preventing mother-to-child HIV transmission in South Africa: estimates from simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenhua; Li, Changping; Fu, Xiaomeng; Cui, Zhuang; Liu, Xiaoqian; Fan, Linlin; Zhang, Guan; Ma, Jun

    2014-01-01

    Based on the important changes in South Africa since 2009 and the Antiretroviral Treatment Guideline 2013 recommendations, we explored the cost-effectiveness of different strategy combinations according to the South African HIV-infected mothers' prompt treatments and different feeding patterns. A decision analytic model was applied to simulate cohorts of 10,000 HIV-infected pregnant women to compare the cost-effectiveness of two different HIV strategy combinations: (1) Women were tested and treated promptly at any time during pregnancy (Promptly treated cohort). (2) Women did not get testing or treatment until after delivery and appropriate standard treatments were offered as a remedy (Remedy cohort). Replacement feeding or exclusive breastfeeding was assigned in both strategies. Outcome measures included the number of infant HIV cases averted, the cost per infant HIV case averted, and the cost per life year (LY) saved from the interventions. One-way and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed to estimate the uncertainty ranges of all outcomes. The remedy strategy does not particularly cost-effective. Compared with the untreated baseline cohort which leads to 1127 infected infants, 698 (61.93%) and 110 (9.76%) of pediatric HIV cases are averted in the promptly treated cohort and remedy cohort respectively, with incremental cost-effectiveness of $68.51 and $118.33 per LY, respectively. With or without the antenatal testing and treatments, breastfeeding is less cost-effective ($193.26 per LY) than replacement feeding ($134.88 per LY), without considering the impact of willingness to pay. Compared with the prompt treatments, remedy in labor or during the postnatal period is less cost-effective. Antenatal HIV testing and prompt treatments and avoiding breastfeeding are the best strategies. Although encouraging mothers to practice replacement feeding in South Africa is far from easy and the advantages of breastfeeding can not be ignored, we still suggest

  12. The cost-effectiveness of different feeding patterns combined with prompt treatments for preventing mother-to-child HIV transmission in South Africa: estimates from simulation modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenhua Yu

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Based on the important changes in South Africa since 2009 and the Antiretroviral Treatment Guideline 2013 recommendations, we explored the cost-effectiveness of different strategy combinations according to the South African HIV-infected mothers' prompt treatments and different feeding patterns. STUDY DESIGN: A decision analytic model was applied to simulate cohorts of 10,000 HIV-infected pregnant women to compare the cost-effectiveness of two different HIV strategy combinations: (1 Women were tested and treated promptly at any time during pregnancy (Promptly treated cohort. (2 Women did not get testing or treatment until after delivery and appropriate standard treatments were offered as a remedy (Remedy cohort. Replacement feeding or exclusive breastfeeding was assigned in both strategies. Outcome measures included the number of infant HIV cases averted, the cost per infant HIV case averted, and the cost per life year (LY saved from the interventions. One-way and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed to estimate the uncertainty ranges of all outcomes. RESULTS: The remedy strategy does not particularly cost-effective. Compared with the untreated baseline cohort which leads to 1127 infected infants, 698 (61.93% and 110 (9.76% of pediatric HIV cases are averted in the promptly treated cohort and remedy cohort respectively, with incremental cost-effectiveness of $68.51 and $118.33 per LY, respectively. With or without the antenatal testing and treatments, breastfeeding is less cost-effective ($193.26 per LY than replacement feeding ($134.88 per LY, without considering the impact of willingness to pay. CONCLUSION: Compared with the prompt treatments, remedy in labor or during the postnatal period is less cost-effective. Antenatal HIV testing and prompt treatments and avoiding breastfeeding are the best strategies. Although encouraging mothers to practice replacement feeding in South Africa is far from easy and the advantages of

  13. COSTMODL: An automated software development cost estimation tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, George B.

    1991-01-01

    The cost of developing computer software continues to consume an increasing portion of many organizations' total budgets, both in the public and private sector. As this trend develops, the capability to produce reliable estimates of the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product takes on increasing importance. The COSTMODL program was developed to provide an in-house capability to perform development cost estimates for NASA software projects. COSTMODL is an automated software development cost estimation tool which incorporates five cost estimation algorithms including the latest models for the Ada language and incrementally developed products. The principal characteristic which sets COSTMODL apart from other software cost estimation programs is its capacity to be completely customized to a particular environment. The estimation equations can be recalibrated to reflect the programmer productivity characteristics demonstrated by the user's organization, and the set of significant factors which effect software development costs can be customized to reflect any unique properties of the user's development environment. Careful use of a capability such as COSTMODL can significantly reduce the risk of cost overruns and failed projects.

  14. How software can sharpen up cost estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stebbins, S.

    1993-05-01

    Sherpa is a menu driven software package, designed by Western Mine Engineering Inc., to determine capital and operating costs for surface mining operations. The programme is engineering-based (as opposed to based on statistics) meaning that all equipment, labour and supply requirements are determined from deposit design, production, and geologic information using standard engineering techniques. These requirements are used in conjunction with equipment, supply, and labour cost data bases internal to the programme to determine all associated costs. By programming the engineering processes commonly used to estimate costs, Sherpa is designed to allow users working in the pre-feasibility stage to function at a level of detail normally reserved for final feasibility studies. 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  15. Costs of sea dikes - regressions and uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenk, Stephan; Rybski, Diego; Heidrich, Oliver; Dawson, Richard J.; Kropp, Jürgen P.

    2017-05-01

    Failure to consider the costs of adaptation strategies can be seen by decision makers as a barrier to implementing coastal protection measures. In order to validate adaptation strategies to sea-level rise in the form of coastal protection, a consistent and repeatable assessment of the costs is necessary. This paper significantly extends current knowledge on cost estimates by developing - and implementing using real coastal dike data - probabilistic functions of dike costs. Data from Canada and the Netherlands are analysed and related to published studies from the US, UK, and Vietnam in order to provide a reproducible estimate of typical sea dike costs and their uncertainty. We plot the costs divided by dike length as a function of height and test four different regression models. Our analysis shows that a linear function without intercept is sufficient to model the costs, i.e. fixed costs and higher-order contributions such as that due to the volume of core fill material are less significant. We also characterise the spread around the regression models which represents an uncertainty stemming from factors beyond dike length and height. Drawing an analogy with project cost overruns, we employ log-normal distributions and calculate that the range between 3x and x/3 contains 95 % of the data, where x represents the corresponding regression value. We compare our estimates with previously published unit costs for other countries. We note that the unit costs depend not only on the country and land use (urban/non-urban) of the sites where the dikes are being constructed but also on characteristics included in the costs, e.g. property acquisition, utility relocation, and project management. This paper gives decision makers an order of magnitude on the protection costs, which can help to remove potential barriers to developing adaptation strategies. Although the focus of this research is sea dikes, our approach is applicable and transferable to other adaptation measures.

  16. Cost Model for Digital Curation: Cost of Digital Migration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2009-01-01

    activities by analysing the OAIS Model, and supplemented this analysis with findings from other models, literature and own experience. To verify the model it has been tested on two sets of data from a normalisation project and a migration project at the Danish National Archives. The study found that the OAIS...... for digital preservation and to increase cost effectiveness of digital preservation activities. In this study we describe an activity based costing methodology for digital preservation based on the OAIS Reference Model. In order to estimate the cost of digital migrations we have identified cost critical...... model provides a sound overall framework for cost breakdown, but that some functions, especially when it comes to performing and evaluating the actual migration, need additional detailing in order to cost activities accurately....

  17. Continuous Time Model Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Carl Chiarella; Shenhuai Gao

    2004-01-01

    This paper introduces an easy to follow method for continuous time model estimation. It serves as an introduction on how to convert a state space model from continuous time to discrete time, how to decompose a hybrid stochastic model into a trend model plus a noise model, how to estimate the trend model by simulation, and how to calculate standard errors from estimation of the noise model. It also discusses the numerical difficulties involved in discrete time models that bring about the unit ...

  18. Estimating incremental costs with skew: a cautionary note.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polgreen, Linnea A; Brooks, John M

    2012-09-01

    Cost data in healthcare are often skewed across patients. Thus, researchers have used either a log transformation of the dependent variable or generalized linear models with log links. However, frequently these non-linear approaches produce non-linear incremental effects: the incremental effects differ at different levels of the covariates, and this can cause dramatic effects on predicted cost. The aim of this study was to demonstrate that when modelling skewed data, log link functions or log transformations are not necessary and have unintended effects. We simulated cost data using a linear model with a 'treatment', a covariate and a specified number of observations with excessive cost (skewed data). We also used actual data from a pain-relief intervention among hip-replacement patients. We then estimated cost models using various functional approaches suggested to handle skew and calculated the incremental cost of treatment at various levels of the covariate(s). All of these methods provide unbiased estimates of the incremental effect of treatment on costs at the mean level of the covariate. However, in some log-based models the implied incremental treatment cost doubled between extreme low and high values of the covariate in a manner inconsistent with the underlying linear model. Although specification checks are always needed, the potential for misleading incremental estimates resulting from log-based specifications is often ignored. In this era of cost containment and comparisons of treatment effectiveness it is vital that researchers and policymakers understand the limitation of the inferences that can be made using log-based models for patients whose characteristics differ from the sample mean.

  19. Costing for the Future: Exploring Cost Estimation With Unmanned Autonomous Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    account for how cost estimating for autonomy is different than current methodologies and to suggest ways it can be addressed through the integration and...required effort for a UMAS, we use the Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model (COSYSMO). This parametric model’s output accounts for integrating...Fabrycky, 2003). The current practice in many organizations is to focus most of the cost of product development and when the project reaches the T

  20. Estimating medical costs of gastroenterological diseases

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li-Fang Chou

    2004-01-01

    AIM: To estimate the direct medical costs of gastroenterological diseases within the universal health insurance program among the population of local residents in Taiwan.METHODS: The data sources were the first 4 cohort datasets of 200 000 people from the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taipei. The ambulatory,inpatient and pharmacy claims of the cohort in 2001 were analyzed. Besides prevalence and medical costs of diseases,both amount and costs of utilization in procedures and drugs were calculated.RESULTS: Of the cohort with 183 976 eligible people, 44.2% had ever a gastroenterological diagnosis during the year.The age group 20-39 years had the lowest prevalence rate(39.2%) while the elderly had the highest (58.4%). The prevalence rate was higher in women than in men (48.5%vs. 40.0%). Totally, 30.4% of 14 888 inpatients had ever a gastroenterological diagnosis at discharge and 18.8% of 51 359 patients at clinics of traditional Chinese medicine had such a diagnosis there. If only the principal diagnosis on each daim was considered, 16.2% of admissions, 8.0% of outpatient visits, and 10.1% of the total medical costs (8 469 909 US dollars/83 830 239 US dollars) were attributed to gastroenterological diseases. On average, 46.0 US dollars per insured person in a year were spent in treating gastroenterological diseases.Diagnostic procedures related to gastroenterological diseases accounted for 24.2% of the costs for all diagnostic procedures and 2.3% of the total medical costs. Therapeutic procedures related to gastroenterological diseases accounted for 4.5% of the costs for all therapeutic procedures and 1.3% of thetotal medical costs. Drugs related to gastroenterological diseases accounted for 7.3% of the costs for all drugs and 1.9% of the total medical costs.CONCLUSION: Gastroenterological diseases are prevalent among the population of local residents in Taiwan, account ingfor a tenth of the total medical costs. Further investigations are needed to

  1. A Model to Estimate the Operating and Maintenance (O&M) Costs of the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    September 28, 2010 from http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/ground/mrap-var.htm Heizer , J., & Render, B. (2008). Operations Management ...Visibility & Management of Operation & Support Cost xv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The role of High Mobility Multi-purpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs) in the United... Operating and Support Management Information System (OSMIS) and the Marine Corps’ Visibility and Management of Operating and Support Costs (VAMOSC

  2. 48 CFR 1852.216-81 - Estimated cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost. 1852.216-81... Estimated cost. As prescribed in 1816.307-70(d), insert the following clause: Estimated cost (DEC 1988) The total estimated cost for complete performance of this contract is $ . See FAR clause 52.216-11,...

  3. Estimating Maintenance Cost for Web Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion IVAN

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The current paper tackles the issue of determining a method for estimating maintenance costs for web applications. The current state of research in the field of web application maintenance is summarized and leading theories and results are highlighted. The cost of web maintenance is determined by the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks. Web maintenance tasks are categorized into content maintenance and technical maintenance. Research is centered on analyzing technical maintenance tasks. The research hypothesis is formulated on the assumption that the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks can be assessed based on the web application’s user interaction level, complexity and content update effort. Data regarding the costs of maintenance tasks is collected from 24 maintenance projects implemented by a web development company that tackles a wide area of web applications. Homogeneity and diversity of collected data is submitted for debate by presenting a sample of the data and depicting the overall size and comprehensive nature of the entire dataset. A set of metrics dedicated to estimating maintenance costs in web applications is defined based on conclusions formulated by analyzing the collected data and the theories and practices dominating the current state of research. Metrics are validated with regards to the initial research hypothesis. Research hypothesis are validated and conclusions are formulated on the topic of estimating the maintenance cost of web applications. The limits of the research process which represented the basis for the current paper are enunciated. Future research topics are submitted for debate.

  4. Estimating the economic value of ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon: An application of travel cost count data models that account for excess zeros.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D Mark

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the sport of ice climbing has seen a dramatic increase in popularity. This paper uses the travel cost method to estimate the demand for ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon, Montana, one of the premier ice climbing venues in North America. Access to Hyalite and other ice climbing destinations have been put at risk due to liability issues, public land management agendas, and winter road conditions. To this point, there has been no analysis on the economic benefits of ice climbing. In addition to the novel outdoor recreation application, this study applies econometric methods designed to deal with "excess zeros" in the data. Depending upon model specification, per person per trip values are estimated to be in the range of $76 to $135.

  5. Robust guaranteed-cost adaptive quantum phase estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Shibdas; Berry, Dominic W.; Petersen, Ian R.; Huntington, Elanor H.

    2017-05-01

    Quantum parameter estimation plays a key role in many fields like quantum computation, communication, and metrology. Optimal estimation allows one to achieve the most precise parameter estimates, but requires accurate knowledge of the model. Any inevitable uncertainty in the model parameters may heavily degrade the quality of the estimate. It is therefore desired to make the estimation process robust to such uncertainties. Robust estimation was previously studied for a varying phase, where the goal was to estimate the phase at some time in the past, using the measurement results from both before and after that time within a fixed time interval up to current time. Here, we consider a robust guaranteed-cost filter yielding robust estimates of a varying phase in real time, where the current phase is estimated using only past measurements. Our filter minimizes the largest (worst-case) variance in the allowable range of the uncertain model parameter(s) and this determines its guaranteed cost. It outperforms in the worst case the optimal Kalman filter designed for the model with no uncertainty, which corresponds to the center of the possible range of the uncertain parameter(s). Moreover, unlike the Kalman filter, our filter in the worst case always performs better than the best achievable variance for heterodyne measurements, which we consider as the tolerable threshold for our system. Furthermore, we consider effective quantum efficiency and effective noise power, and show that our filter provides the best results by these measures in the worst case.

  6. Applying AHP—Based CBR to Estimate Pavement Maintenance Cost

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jui-Sheng Chou

    2008-01-01

    The cost-efficacy control of maintenance operations in developing countries has become critical to the infrastructure asset management after highway construction.To effectively manage numerous projects annually with limited resources,it is necessary to reasonably estimate costs during the process of making maintenance project selection decisions.This study outlines the modeling of case-based reasoning (CBR) estimation that compares and retrieves the most similar instance across the case library.Four CBR ap- proaches were presented and assessed in terms of their mean absolute prediction error rates.The resulting model demonstrates the ability of estimating the pavement maintenance project costs with the satisfactory accuracy at the early stages.

  7. The Use of Mixed Effects Models for Obtaining Low-Cost Ecosystem Carbon Stock Estimates in Mangroves of the Asia-Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukoski, Jacob J.; Broadhead, Jeremy S.; Donato, Daniel C.; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Gregoire, Timothy G.

    2017-01-01

    Mangroves provide extensive ecosystem services that support local livelihoods and international environmental goals, including coastal protection, biodiversity conservation and the sequestration of carbon (C). While voluntary C market projects seeking to preserve and enhance forest C stocks offer a potential means of generating finance for mangrove conservation, their implementation faces barriers due to the high costs of quantifying C stocks through field inventories. To streamline C quantification in mangrove conservation projects, we develop predictive models for (i) biomass-based C stocks, and (ii) soil-based C stocks for the mangroves of the Asia-Pacific. We compile datasets of mangrove biomass C (197 observations from 48 sites) and soil organic C (99 observations from 27 sites) to parameterize the predictive models, and use linear mixed effect models to model the expected C as a function of stand attributes. The most parsimonious biomass model predicts total biomass C stocks as a function of both basal area and the interaction between latitude and basal area, whereas the most parsimonious soil C model predicts soil C stocks as a function of the logarithmic transformations of both latitude and basal area. Random effects are specified by site for both models, which are found to explain a substantial proportion of variance within the estimation datasets and indicate significant heterogeneity across-sites within the region. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the biomass C model is approximated at 24.6 Mg/ha (18.4% of mean biomass C in the dataset), whereas the RMSE of the soil C model is estimated at 4.9 mg C/cm3 (14.1% of mean soil C). The results point to a need for standardization of forest metrics to facilitate meta-analyses, as well as provide important considerations for refining ecosystem C stock models in mangroves. PMID:28068361

  8. The Use of Mixed Effects Models for Obtaining Low-Cost Ecosystem Carbon Stock Estimates in Mangroves of the Asia-Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukoski, Jacob J; Broadhead, Jeremy S; Donato, Daniel C; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Gregoire, Timothy G

    2017-01-01

    Mangroves provide extensive ecosystem services that support local livelihoods and international environmental goals, including coastal protection, biodiversity conservation and the sequestration of carbon (C). While voluntary C market projects seeking to preserve and enhance forest C stocks offer a potential means of generating finance for mangrove conservation, their implementation faces barriers due to the high costs of quantifying C stocks through field inventories. To streamline C quantification in mangrove conservation projects, we develop predictive models for (i) biomass-based C stocks, and (ii) soil-based C stocks for the mangroves of the Asia-Pacific. We compile datasets of mangrove biomass C (197 observations from 48 sites) and soil organic C (99 observations from 27 sites) to parameterize the predictive models, and use linear mixed effect models to model the expected C as a function of stand attributes. The most parsimonious biomass model predicts total biomass C stocks as a function of both basal area and the interaction between latitude and basal area, whereas the most parsimonious soil C model predicts soil C stocks as a function of the logarithmic transformations of both latitude and basal area. Random effects are specified by site for both models, which are found to explain a substantial proportion of variance within the estimation datasets and indicate significant heterogeneity across-sites within the region. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the biomass C model is approximated at 24.6 Mg/ha (18.4% of mean biomass C in the dataset), whereas the RMSE of the soil C model is estimated at 4.9 mg C/cm3 (14.1% of mean soil C). The results point to a need for standardization of forest metrics to facilitate meta-analyses, as well as provide important considerations for refining ecosystem C stock models in mangroves.

  9. Supplemental report on cost estimates'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1992-04-29

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have completed an analysis of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Fiscal Year (FY) 1993 budget request for its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (ERWM) program. The results were presented to an interagency review group (IAG) of senior-Administration officials for their consideration in the budget process. This analysis included evaluations of the underlying legal requirements and cost estimates on which the ERWM budget request was based. The major conclusions are contained in a separate report entitled, ''Interagency Review of the Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program.'' This Corps supplemental report provides greater detail on the cost analysis.

  10. The Use of Mixed Effects Models for Obtaining Low-Cost Ecosystem Carbon Stock Estimates in Mangroves of the Asia-Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukoski, J. J.; Broadhead, J. S.; Donato, D.; Murdiyarso, D.; Gregoire, T. G.

    2016-12-01

    Mangroves provide extensive ecosystem services that support both local livelihoods and international environmental goals, including coastal protection, water filtration, biodiversity conservation and the sequestration of carbon (C). While voluntary C market projects that seek to preserve and enhance forest C stocks offer a potential means of generating finance for mangrove conservation, their implementation faces barriers due to the high costs of quantifying C stocks through measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) activities. To streamline MRV activities in mangrove C forestry projects, we develop predictive models for (i) biomass-based C stocks, and (ii) soil-based C stocks for the mangroves of the Asia-Pacific. We use linear mixed effect models to account for spatial correlation in modeling the expected C as a function of stand attributes. The most parsimonious biomass model predicts total biomass C stocks as a function of both basal area and the interaction between latitude and basal area, whereas the most parsimonious soil C model predicts soil C stocks as a function of the logarithmic transformations of both latitude and basal area. Random effects are specified by site for both models, and are found to explain a substantial proportion of variance within the estimation datasets. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the biomass C model is approximated at 24.6 Mg/ha (18.4% of mean biomass C in the dataset), whereas the RMSE of the soil C model is estimated at 4.9 mg C/cm 3 (14.1% of mean soil C). A substantial proportion of the variation in soil C, however, is explained by the random effects and thus the use of the SOC model may be most valuable for sites in which field measurements of soil C exist.

  11. 28 CFR 19.4 - Cost and percentage estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cost and percentage estimates. 19.4... RECOVERY OF MISSING CHILDREN § 19.4 Cost and percentage estimates. It is estimated that this program will cost DOJ $78,000 during the initial year. This figure is based on estimates of printing, inserting,...

  12. Construction Cost Prediction by Using Building Information Modeling

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Remon F. Aziz

    2015-01-01

    The increased interest in using Building Information Modeling (BIM) in detailed construction cost estimates calls for methodologies to evaluate the effectiveness of BIM-Assisted Detailed Estimating (BADE...

  13. Estimating costs and manpower requirements for conventional wastewater treatment facilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patterson, W.L; Banker, R.F

    1971-01-01

    Data for estimating average construciton costs, operation and maintenance costs, and manpower staffing requirements, are presented for conventional wastewater treatment plants ranging from 1 to 100...

  14. Estimated generic prices of cancer medicines deemed cost-ineffective in England: a cost estimation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andrew; Redd, Christopher; Gotham, Dzintars; Erbacher, Isabelle; Meldrum, Jonathan; Harada, Ryo

    2017-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to estimate lowest possible treatment costs for four novel cancer drugs, hypothesising that generic manufacturing could significantly reduce treatment costs. Setting This research was carried out in a non-clinical research setting using secondary data. Participants There were no human participants in the study. Four drugs were selected for the study: bortezomib, dasatinib, everolimus and gefitinib. These medications were selected according to their clinical importance, novel pharmaceutical actions and the availability of generic price data. Primary and secondary outcome measures Target costs for treatment were to be generated for each indication for each treatment. The primary outcome measure was the target cost according to a production cost calculation algorithm. The secondary outcome measure was the target cost as the lowest available generic price; this was necessary where export data were not available to generate an estimate from our cost calculation algorithm. Other outcomes included patent expiry dates and total eligible treatment populations. Results Target prices were £411 per cycle for bortezomib, £9 per month for dasatinib, £852 per month for everolimus and £10 per month for gefitinib. Compared with current list prices in England, these target prices would represent reductions of 74–99.6%. Patent expiry dates were bortezomib 2014–22, dasatinib 2020–26, everolimus 2019–25 and gefitinib 2017. The total global eligible treatment population in 1 year is 769 736. Conclusions Our findings demonstrate that affordable drug treatment costs are possible for novel cancer drugs, suggesting that new therapeutic options can be made available to patients and doctors worldwide. Assessing treatment cost estimations alongside cost-effectiveness evaluations is an important area of future research. PMID:28110283

  15. Methods for cost estimation in software project management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briciu, C. V.; Filip, I.; Indries, I. I.

    2016-02-01

    The speed in which the processes used in software development field have changed makes it very difficult the task of forecasting the overall costs for a software project. By many researchers, this task has been considered unachievable, but there is a group of scientist for which this task can be solved using the already known mathematical methods (e.g. multiple linear regressions) and the new techniques as genetic programming and neural networks. The paper presents a solution for building a model for the cost estimation models in the software project management using genetic algorithms starting from the PROMISE datasets related COCOMO 81 model. In the first part of the paper, a summary of the major achievements in the research area of finding a model for estimating the overall project costs is presented together with the description of the existing software development process models. In the last part, a basic proposal of a mathematical model of a genetic programming is proposed including here the description of the chosen fitness function and chromosome representation. The perspective of model described it linked with the current reality of the software development considering as basis the software product life cycle and the current challenges and innovations in the software development area. Based on the author's experiences and the analysis of the existing models and product lifecycle it was concluded that estimation models should be adapted with the new technologies and emerging systems and they depend largely by the chosen software development method.

  16. Hydropower Baseline Cost Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Connor, Patrick W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Zhang, Qin Fen [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); DeNeale, Scott T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chalise, Dol Raj [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Centurion, Emma E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Recent resource assessments conducted by the United States Department of Energy have identified significant opportunities for expanding hydropower generation through the addition of power to non-powered dams and on undeveloped stream-reaches. Additional interest exists in the powering of existing water resource infrastructure such as conduits and canals, upgrading and expanding existing hydropower facilities, and the construction new pumped storage hydropower. Understanding the potential future role of these hydropower resources in the nation’s energy system requires an assessment of the environmental and techno-economic issues associated with expanding hydropower generation. To facilitate these assessments, this report seeks to fill the current gaps in publically available hydropower cost-estimating tools that can support the national-scale evaluation of hydropower resources.

  17. Estimating management costs of protected areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Green, Jonathan M.H.; Burgess, Neil David; Green, Rhys E.

    2012-01-01

    area managers in the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania to establish how much is currently spent on reserve management and how much is required to meet conservation objectives. We use an information theoretic approach to model spatial variation in these costs using a range of plausible, spatially......Despite chronic underfunding for conservation and the recognition that funds must be invested wisely, few studies have analysed the direct costs of managing protected areas at the spatial scales needed to inform local site management. Using a questionnaire survey we collected data from protected...... explicit predictor variables, including a novel measure of anthropogenic pressure that measures the human pressure that accrues to any point in the landscape by taking into account all people in the landscape, inversely weighted by their distance to that point. Our models explain over 75% of variation...

  18. Development of a simple estimation tool for LMFBR construction cost

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshida, Kazuo; Kinoshita, Izumi [Central Research Inst. of Electric Power Industry, Komae, Tokyo (Japan). Komae Research Lab

    1999-05-01

    A simple tool for estimating the construction costs of liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors (LMFBRs), 'Simple Cost' was developed in this study. Simple Cost is based on a new estimation formula that can reduce the amount of design data required to estimate construction costs. Consequently, Simple cost can be used to estimate the construction costs of innovative LMFBR concepts for which detailed design has not been carried out. The results of test calculation show that Simple Cost provides cost estimations equivalent to those obtained with conventional methods within the range of plant power from 325 to 1500 MWe. Sensitivity analyses for typical design parameters were conducted using Simple Cost. The effects of four major parameters - reactor vessel diameter, core outlet temperature, sodium handling area and number of secondary loops - on the construction costs of LMFBRs were evaluated quantitatively. The results show that the reduction of sodium handling area is particularly effective in reducing construction costs. (author)

  19. Estimated Annual Maintenance Costs for Educational Facilities in Eritrea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vagnby, Bo Hellisen

    Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea.......Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea....

  20. ICPP tank farm closure study. Volume 3: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    This volume contains information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the six options described in Volume 1, Section 2: Option 1 -- Total removal clean closure; No subsequent use; Option 2 -- Risk-based clean closure; LLW fill; Option 3 -- Risk-based clean closure; CERCLA fill; Option 4 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; LLW fill; Option 5 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; CERCLA fill; and Option 6 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; Clean fill. This volume is divided into two portions. The first portion contains the cost and planning schedule estimates while the second portion contains life-cycle costs and yearly cash flow information for each option.

  1. Estimation of immunization providers' activities cost, medication cost, and immunization dose errors cost in Iraq.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-lela, Omer Qutaiba B; Bahari, Mohd Baidi; Al-abbassi, Mustafa G; Salih, Muhannad R M; Basher, Amena Y

    2012-06-01

    The immunization status of children is improved by interventions that increase community demand for compulsory and non-compulsory vaccines, one of the most important interventions related to immunization providers. The aim of this study is to evaluate the activities of immunization providers in terms of activities time and cost, to calculate the immunization doses cost, and to determine the immunization dose errors cost. Time-motion and cost analysis study design was used. Five public health clinics in Mosul-Iraq participated in the study. Fifty (50) vaccine doses were required to estimate activities time and cost. Micro-costing method was used; time and cost data were collected for each immunization-related activity performed by the clinic staff. A stopwatch was used to measure the duration of activity interactions between the parents and clinic staff. The immunization service cost was calculated by multiplying the average salary/min by activity time per minute. 528 immunization cards of Iraqi children were scanned to determine the number and the cost of immunization doses errors (extraimmunization doses and invalid doses). The average time for child registration was 6.7 min per each immunization dose, and the physician spent more than 10 min per dose. Nurses needed more than 5 min to complete child vaccination. The total cost of immunization activities was 1.67 US$ per each immunization dose. Measles vaccine (fifth dose) has a lower price (0.42 US$) than all other immunization doses. The cost of a total of 288 invalid doses was 744.55 US$ and the cost of a total of 195 extra immunization doses was 503.85 US$. The time spent on physicians' activities was longer than that spent on registrars' and nurses' activities. Physician total cost was higher than registrar cost and nurse cost. The total immunization cost will increase by about 13.3% owing to dose errors.

  2. The application of cost behaviour and estimation in organisational ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The application of cost behaviour and estimation in organisational decision ... the calculation of standard cost and the provision of relevant costs for pricing and ... Based on these findings, the paper recommends among others the need for the ...

  3. A generic framework for cost estimation and cost control in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weustink, I.F.; Brinke, ten E.; Streppel, A.H.; Kals, H.J.J.

    2000-01-01

    Traditionally, cost estimation was performed after the design process, though most opportunities of cost reduction have already passed. Therefore, it is advantageous to be able to estimate the product costs early in the product development cycle. By changing the way cost estimation is dealt with, it

  4. A generic framework for cost estimation and cost control in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutters-Weustink, Ilanit F.; ten Brinke, E.; Streppel, A.H.; Kals, H.J.J.

    2000-01-01

    Traditionally, cost estimation was performed after the design process, though most opportunities of cost reduction have already passed. Therefore, it is advantageous to be able to estimate the product costs early in the product development cycle. By changing the way cost estimation is dealt with, it

  5. Fleet Replacement Squadron consolidation : a cost model applied.

    OpenAIRE

    Maholchic, Robert M.

    1991-01-01

    The consolidation of Fleet Replacement Squadrons (FRS) represents one method of achieving planned force reductions. This thesis utilizes the Cost of Base Realignment Actions (COBRA) cost model to develop cost estimates for determination of the cost effective site location. The A-6 FRS consolidation is used as a case study. Data were compiled using completed Functional Wing studies as well as local information sources. A comparison between the cost estimates provided by the COBRA cost model fo...

  6. Analysis and modeling of rail maintenance costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Ali Bakhshi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Railroad maintenance engineering plays an important role on availability of roads and reducing the cost of railroad incidents. Rail is of the most important parts of railroad industry, which needs regular maintenance since it covers a significant part of total maintenance cost. Any attempt on optimizing total cost of maintenance could substantially reduce the cost of railroad system and it can reduce total cost of the industry. The paper presents a new method to estimate the cost of rail failure using different cost components such as cost of inspection and cost of risk associated with possible accidents. The proposed model of this paper is used for a real-world case study of railroad transportation of Tehran region and the results have been analyzed.

  7. Cost Modeling for SOC Modules Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balwinder Singh

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The complexity of the system design is increasing very rapidly as the number of transistors on Integrated Circuits (IC doubles as per Moore’s law.There is big challenge of testing this complex VLSI circuit, in which whole system is integrated into a single chip called System on Chip (SOC. Cost of testing the SOC is also increasing with complexity. Cost modeling plays a vital role in reduction of test cost and time to market. This paper includes the cost modeling of the SOC Module testing which contains both analog and digital modules. The various test cost parameters and equations are considered from the previous work. The mathematical relations are developed for cost modeling to test the SOC further cost modeling equations are modeled in Graphical User Interface (GUI in MATLAB, which can be used as a cost estimation tool. A case study is done to calculate the cost of the SOC testing due to Logic Built in Self Test (LBIST and Memory Built in Self Test (MBIST. VLSI Test engineers can take the benefits of such cost estimation tools for test planning.

  8. 15 CFR 23.4 - Cost and percentage estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Cost and percentage estimates. 23.4... LOCATION AND RECOVERY OF MISSING CHILDREN § 23.4 Cost and percentage estimates. It is estimated that this... estimate that 9% of its penalty mail will transmit missing children photographs and information when...

  9. BIM-Based Cost Estimation/ Monitoring For Building Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emad Elbeltagi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Proper Cost Estimate, Monitor and Control (CEM&C are vital for the success of construction projects. Starting from preliminary design to project closing, CEM&C progressively becomes more complex and challenging. Visualization can add another dimension to monitor and control where major deviations can be visually detected and analyzed. However, literature related to visualization in construction and integrating it with cost control is still in its early stages. Building Information Modeling (BIM can have promising impact in that domain. In this paper, a comprehensive cost estimating and monitoring model is presented. The model is integrated with BIM to provide the user with the capability of visualizing actual cost expended in different building elements and compare it with that budgeted at different time intervals. It provides construction practitioners with vital data that help them in taking appropriate corrective actions in case of any deviation from the budget. An example application is presented to demonstrate the capability and applicability of the model.

  10. Application of CERREX software for KRR-1 Decommissioning Cost Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Yunjeong; Park, Seungkook [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Main objectives of cost estimation is to indicate the costs required to complete the decommissioning project and to optimize the dismantling sequence and timing and then minimize the decommissioning total costs. There are three types of cost estimate; (i) Order of magnitude estimate, (ii) Budgetary estimate, (iii) Definitive estimate. Second of the theses types is applied to cost calculation in this paper. This was also applied to cost estimate part of preliminary decommissioning plan for Kijang construction approval. In this paper, the methodology and procedure for decommissioning costing using CERREX software were presented and cost estimation was performed and compared with actual decommissioning cost for KRR- 1(Korea Reactor Research, Unit 1). Cost estimation for KRR-1 was carried out applying to CERREX software. Table 1 shows the result values of the calculation. The currency was calculated as USD. Calculated cost is within the limit of 'Budgetary estimate' and the values is approximately $7,800,000. Labor costs are calculated based on manpower components per involved professions and hour rates per typical professions.

  11. Parametric estimation of medical care costs under conditions of censoring

    OpenAIRE

    Raikou, Maria; McGuire, Alistair

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with a set of parametric estimators that attempt to provide consistent estimates of average medical care costs under conditions of censoring. The main finding is that incorporation of the inverse of the probability of an individual not being censored in the estimating equations is instrumental in deriving unbiased cost estimates. The success of the approach is dependent on the amount of available information on the cost history process. The value of this information in...

  12. Oil development-operating cost estimates, 1955-85

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adelman, M.A.; Shahi, M.

    1989-01-01

    Few if any published oil production cost estimates can be verified as to method and basic data. Using US drilling costs and some assumptions explained in the text, this paper estimates development-operating costs in 41 oil-producing nations, from 1955 to 1985, from publicly available data on drilling. Estimation methods are described in detail so that anyone with access to better information on any item can substitute it to arrive at a better estimate.

  13. IDC reengineering Phase 2 & 3 US industry standard cost estimate summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, James M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huelskamp, Robert M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, using a commercial software cost estimation tool calibrated to US industry performance parameters. This is not a cost estimate for Sandia to perform the project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  14. Lifetime costs of lung transplantation : Estimation of incremental costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VanEnckevort, PJ; Koopmanschap, MA; Tenvergert, EM; VanderBij, W; Rutten, FFH

    1997-01-01

    Despite an expanding number of centres which provide lung transplantation, information about the incremental costs of lung transplantation is scarce. From 1991 until 1995, in The Netherlands a technology assessment was performed which provided information about the incremental costs of lung transpla

  15. Lifetime costs of lung transplantation : Estimation of incremental costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VanEnckevort, PJ; Koopmanschap, MA; Tenvergert, EM; VanderBij, W; Rutten, FFH

    1997-01-01

    Despite an expanding number of centres which provide lung transplantation, information about the incremental costs of lung transplantation is scarce. From 1991 until 1995, in The Netherlands a technology assessment was performed which provided information about the incremental costs of lung transpla

  16. Cross Service Fixed-Wing Cost Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-17

    clarify the costing methods for O&S costs for fixed-wing delivery platforms with the intent of extending the research to other cross- service mission costs...proof-of-concept, this project will concentrate on equating equitable cross- service costs for fixed-wing munitions delivery platforms. The method of... delivery is an essential part of the AoA, especially when the project proposed is the replacement of current missile systems. The services have

  17. 40 CFR 265.142 - Cost estimate for closure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... estimate in current dollars, or by using an inflation factor derived from the most recent Implicit Price... must have a detailed written estimate, in current dollars, of the cost of closing the facility in... cost estimate for inflation within 60 days prior to the anniversary date of the establishment of...

  18. Aircraft bi-level life cycle cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curan, R.

    2015-01-01

    n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost, operati

  19. Aircraft bi-level life cycle cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curan, R.

    2015-01-01

    n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost,

  20. Estimating nonlinear models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billings, S. A.

    1988-03-01

    Time and frequency domain identification methods for nonlinear systems are reviewed. Parametric methods, prediction error methods, structure detection, model validation, and experiment design are discussed. Identification of a liquid level system, a heat exchanger, and a turbocharge automotive diesel engine are illustrated. Rational models are introduced. Spectral analysis for nonlinear systems is treated. Recursive estimation is mentioned.

  1. HTGR Cost Model Users' Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooler Reactor (HTGR) Cost Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Cost Model calculates an estimate of the capital costs, annual operating and maintenance costs, and decommissioning costs for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. The user can generate these costs for multiple reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for a single or four-pack configuration; and for a reactor size of 350 or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Cost Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Cost Model. This model was design for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel. Modification of the HTGR Cost Model should only be performed by users familiar with Excel and Visual Basic.

  2. Estimating the Economic Value of Ice Climbing in Hyalite Canyon: An Application of Travel Cost Count Data Models that Account for Excess Zeros*

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson, D. Mark

    2009-01-01

    Recently, the sport of ice climbing has seen a drastic increase in popularity. This paper uses the travel cost method to estimate the demand for ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon, Montana, one of the premier ice climbing venues in North America. Access to Hyalite and other ice climbing destinations have been put at risk due to liability issues, public land management agendas, and winter road conditions. To this point, there has been no analysis on the economic benefits of ice climbing. In additi...

  3. An evolutionary morphological approach for software development cost estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Ricardo de A; Oliveira, Adriano L I; Soares, Sergio; Meira, Silvio

    2012-08-01

    In this work we present an evolutionary morphological approach to solve the software development cost estimation (SDCE) problem. The proposed approach consists of a hybrid artificial neuron based on framework of mathematical morphology (MM) with algebraic foundations in the complete lattice theory (CLT), referred to as dilation-erosion perceptron (DEP). Also, we present an evolutionary learning process, called DEP(MGA), using a modified genetic algorithm (MGA) to design the DEP model, because a drawback arises from the gradient estimation of morphological operators in the classical learning process of the DEP, since they are not differentiable in the usual way. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed model using five complex SDCE problems and three well-known performance metrics, demonstrating good performance of the DEP model to solve SDCE problems.

  4. Improved Recharge Estimation from Portable, Low-Cost Weather Stations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holländer, Hartmut M; Wang, Zijian; Assefa, Kibreab A; Woodbury, Allan D

    2016-03-01

    Groundwater recharge estimation is a critical quantity for sustainable groundwater management. The feasibility and robustness of recharge estimation was evaluated using physical-based modeling procedures, and data from a low-cost weather station with remote sensor techniques in Southern Abbotsford, British Columbia, Canada. Recharge was determined using the Richards-based vadose zone hydrological model, HYDRUS-1D. The required meteorological data were recorded with a HOBO(TM) weather station for a short observation period (about 1 year) and an existing weather station (Abbotsford A) for long-term study purpose (27 years). Undisturbed soil cores were taken at two locations in the vicinity of the HOBO(TM) weather station. The derived soil hydraulic parameters were used to characterize the soil in the numerical model. Model performance was evaluated using observed soil moisture and soil temperature data obtained from subsurface remote sensors. A rigorous sensitivity analysis was used to test the robustness of the model. Recharge during the short observation period was estimated at 863 and 816 mm. The mean annual recharge was estimated at 848 and 859 mm/year based on a time series of 27 years. The relative ratio of annual recharge-precipitation varied from 43% to 69%. From a monthly recharge perspective, the majority (80%) of recharge due to precipitation occurred during the hydrologic winter period. The comparison of the recharge estimates with other studies indicates a good agreement. Furthermore, this method is able to predict transient recharge estimates, and can provide a reasonable tool for estimates on nutrient leaching that is often controlled by strong precipitation events and rapid infiltration of water and nitrate into the soil.

  5. Estimating the cost of major ongoing cost plus hardware development programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, J. C.

    1990-01-01

    Approaches are developed for forecasting the cost of major hardware development programs while these programs are in the design and development C/D phase. Three approaches are developed: a schedule assessment technique for bottom-line summary cost estimation, a detailed cost estimation approach, and an intermediate cost element analysis procedure. The schedule assessment technique was developed using historical cost/schedule performance data.

  6. Fast Conceptual Cost Estimating of Aerospace Projects Using Historical Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butts, Glenn

    2007-01-01

    Accurate estimates can be created in less than a minute by applying powerful techniques and algorithms to create an Excel-based parametric cost model. In five easy steps you will learn how to normalize your company 's historical cost data to the new project parameters. This paper provides a complete, easy-to-understand, step by step how-to guide. Such a guide does not seem to currently exist. Over 2,000 hours of research, data collection, and trial and error, and thousands of lines of Excel Visual Basic Application (VBA) code were invested in developing these methods. While VBA is not required to use this information, it increases the power and aesthetics of the model. Implementing all of the steps described, while not required, will increase the accuracy of the results.

  7. Ontology-Based Representation and Reasoning in Building Construction Cost Estimation in China

    OpenAIRE

    Xin Liu; Zhongfu Li; Shaohua Jiang

    2016-01-01

    Cost estimation is one of the most critical tasks for building construction project management. The existing building construction cost estimation methods of many countries, including China, require information from several sources, including material, labor, and equipment, and tend to be manual, time-consuming, and error-prone. To solve these problems, a building construction cost estimation model based on ontology representation and reasoning is established, which includes three major compo...

  8. Modeling a farm population to estimate on-farm compliance costs and environmental effects of a grassland extensification scheme at the regional scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uthes, Sandra; Sattler, Claudia; Piorr, Annette

    2010-01-01

    production orientations and grassland types was modeled under the presence and absence of the grassland extensification scheme using the bio-economic model MODAM. Farms were based on available accountancy data and surveyed production data, while information on farm location within the district was derived...... and environmental effects were heterogeneous in space and farm types as a result of different agricultural production and site characteristics. On-farm costs ranged from zero up to almost 1500 Euro/ha. Such high costs occurred only in a very small part of the regional area, whereas the majority of the grassland had...

  9. Cost Estimating Cases: Educational Tools for Cost Analysts

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-09-01

    DATE: 22 Jul 9X WBS ELEMENT/NUM JR: Systems Engineering/Program Mangement /1070 PRODUCTION BRIEF DESCRIPTION: The estimating/technical teams evaluated...Overcoming a Weakness of the Case Method," Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Ouarterly, 3:69-72 (August 1992). 14. Takekuwa, Laura. Budget Course

  10. Estimating the cost of blood: past, present, and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shander, Aryeh; Hofmann, Axel; Gombotz, Hans; Theusinger, Oliver M; Spahn, Donat R

    2007-06-01

    Understanding the costs associated with blood products requires sophisticated knowledge about transfusion medicine and is attracting the attention of clinical and administrative healthcare sectors worldwide. To improve outcomes, blood usage must be optimized and expenditures controlled so that resources may be channeled toward other diagnostic, therapeutic, and technological initiatives. Estimating blood costs, however, is a complex undertaking, surpassing simple supply versus demand economics. Shrinking donor availability and application of a precautionary principle to minimize transfusion risks are factors that continue to drive the cost of blood products upward. Recognizing that historical accounting attempts to determine blood costs have varied in scope, perspective, and methodology, new approaches have been initiated to identify all potential cost elements related to blood and blood product administration. Activities are also under way to tie these elements together in a comprehensive and practical model that will be applicable to all single-donor blood products without regard to practice type (e.g., academic, private, multi- or single-center clinic). These initiatives, their rationale, importance, and future directions are described.

  11. Standardized cost estimation for new technology (SCENT) - methodology and tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ereev, S.Y.; Patel, M.K.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a methodology and tool (called SCENT) to prepare preliminary economic estimates of the total production costs related to manufacturing in the process industries. The methodology uses the factorial approach – cost objects are estimated using factors and

  12. 40 CFR 267.142 - Cost estimate for closure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... dollars, or by using an inflation factor derived from the most recent Implicit Price Deflator for Gross... active life of the facility, the owner or operator must adjust the closure cost estimate for inflation... closure cost estimate must be updated for inflation within 30 days after the close of the firm's fiscal...

  13. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hudson, C.R. II

    1987-07-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies.

  14. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

    1990-03-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies. 10 refs., 8 figs., 32 tabs.

  15. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hudson, C.R. II

    1986-07-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies.

  16. Fuel Cost Estimation for Sumatra Grid System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liun, Edwaren

    2010-06-01

    Sumatra has a high growth rate electricity energy demand from the first decade in this century. At the medium of this decade the growth is 11% per annum. On the other side capability of Government of Indonesia cq. PLN authority is limited, while many and most old existing power plants will be retired. The electricity demand growth of Sumatra is increasing the fuel consumption for several next decades. Based on several cases by vary growth scenarios and economic parameters, it shown that some kinds of fossil fuel keep to be required until next several decades. Although Sumatra has abundant coal resource, however, the other fuel types such as fuel oil, diesel, gas and nuclear are needed. On the Base Scenario and discount rate of 10%, the Sumatra System will require 11.6 million tones of coal until 2030 producing 866 TWh with cost of US10558 million. Nuclear plants produce about 501 TWh or 32% by cost of US3.1 billion. On the High Scenario and discount rate 10%, the coal consumption becomes 486.6 million tones by fuel cost of US12.7 billion producing 1033 TWh electricity energy. Nuclear fuel cost required in this scenario is US7.06 billion. The other fuel in large amount consumed is natural gas for combined cycle plants by cost of US1.38 billion producing 11.7 TWh of electricity energy on the Base Scenario and discount rate of 10%. In the High Scenario and discount rate 10% coal plants take role in power generation in Sumatra producing about 866 TWh or 54% of electricity energy. Coal consumption will be the highest on the Base Scenario with discount rate of 12% producing 756 TWh and required cost of US17.1 billion. Nuclear plants will not applicable in this scenario due to its un-competitiveness. The fuel cost will depend on nuclear power role in Sumatra system. Fuel cost will increase correspond to the increasing of coal consumption on the case where nuclear power plants not appear.

  17. A new approach for product cost estimation using data envelopment analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adil Salam

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation of new products has always been difficult as only few design, manufacturing and operational features will be known. In these situations, parametric or non-parametric methods are commonly used to estimate the cost of a product given the corresponding cost drivers. The parametric models use priori determined cost function where the parameters of the function are evaluated from historical data. Non-parametric methods, on the other hand, attempt to fit curves to the historic data without predetermined function. In both methods, it is assumed that the historic data used in the analysis is a true representation of the relation between the cost drivers and the corresponding costs. However, because of efficiency variations of the manufacturers and suppliers, changes in supplier selections, market fluctuations, and several other reasons, certain costs in the historic data may be too high whereas other costs may represent better deals for their corresponding cost drivers. Thus, it may be important to rank the historic data and identify benchmarks and estimate the target costs of the product based on these benchmarks. In this paper, a novel adaptation of cost drivers and cost data is introduced in order to use data envelopment analysis for the purpose of ranking cost data and identify benchmarks, and then estimate the target costs of a new product based on these benchmarks. An illustrative case study has been presented for the cost estimation of landing gears of an aircraft manufactured by an aerospace company located in Montreal, CANADA.

  18. MONITORED GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY LIFE CYCLE COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS DOCUMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.E. Sweeney

    2001-02-08

    The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost (LCC) estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA) , License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance.

  19. 48 CFR 252.215-7002 - Cost estimating system requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...(2), use the following clause: Cost Estimating System Requirements (DEC 2006) (a) Definitions..., totaling $50 million or more for which cost or pricing data were required; or (2) In its fiscal year... more (but less than $50 million) for which cost or pricing data were required; and (ii) Was notified...

  20. Soft Computing Approach for Software Cost Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Iman Attarzadeh; Siew Hock Ow

    2010-01-01

    Software metric and estimation is base on measuring of software attributes which are typically related to the product, the process and the resources of software development. One of the greatest challenges for software developers is predicting the development effort for a software system based on some metrics for the last decades. Project managers are required to the ability to give a good estimation on software development effort. Most of the traditional techniques such as function points, re...

  1. Review of storage battery system cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, D.R.; Russell, J.A.

    1986-04-01

    Cost analyses for zinc bromine, sodium sulfur, and lead acid batteries were reviewed. Zinc bromine and sodium sulfur batteries were selected because of their advanced design nature and the high level of interest in these two technologies. Lead acid batteries were included to establish a baseline representative of a more mature technology.

  2. Estimating Instantaneous Energetic Cost During Gait Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-31

    cost during gait adaptation Jessica C. Selinger and J. Maxwell Donelan Department of Biomedical Physiology and Kinesiology Simon Fraser University...4986 jessica_selinger@sfu.ca     Simon Fraser University Biomedical Physiology and Kinesiology Shrum Science Center- Building K 8888

  3. IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Cost Estimate Summary (Leveraged NDC Case).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, James M.; Prescott, Ryan; Dawson, Jericah M.; Huelskamp, Robert M.

    2014-11-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, based on leveraging a fully funded, Sandia executed NDC Modernization project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

  4. Parametric Equations for Estimating Aircraft Airframe Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-02-01

    prototype program for the first few aircraft is substantially lower because many costs are deferred until a decision to produce for inventory is made...overhead rates. It is necessary to begin with labor hours and convert tbam into dollars. That conversion can result in a serious misstatement of...general and administrative expense (G&A), miscellaneous direct charges (overtime premium, travel, per diem, miscellaneous taxes , etc.), and, in the

  5. Fuzzy case based reasoning in sports facilities unit cost estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zima, Krzysztof

    2016-06-01

    This article presents an example of estimating costs in the early phase of the project using fuzzy case-based reasoning. The fragment of database containing descriptions and unit cost of sports facilities was shown. The formulas used in Case Based Reasoning method were presented, too. The article presents similarity measurement using a few formulas, including fuzzy similarity. The outcome of cost calculations based on CBR method was presented as a fuzzy number of unit cost of construction work.

  6. Intelligent Cost Modeling Based on Soft Computing for Avionics Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Li-li; LI Zhuang-sheng; XU Zong-ze

    2006-01-01

    In parametric cost estimating, objections to using statistical Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) and parametric models include problems of low statistical significance due to limited data points, biases in the underlying data, and lack of robustness. Soft Computing (SC) technologies are used for building intelligent cost models. The SC models are systemically evaluated based on their training and prediction of the historical cost data of airborne avionics systems. Results indicating the strengths and weakness of each model are presented. In general, the intelligent cost models have higher prediction precision, better data adaptability, and stronger self-learning capability than the regression CERs.

  7. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II

    1993-05-01

    Several advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include the Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors, the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor and the Advanced Light Water Reactors. One measure of the attractiveness of a new concept is its cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electrical generation. This report provides a common starting point, whereby the cost estimates for the various power plants to be considered are developed with common assumptions and ground rules. Comparisons can then be made on a consistent basis. This is the second update of these cost estimate guidelines. Changes have been made to make the guidelines more current (January 1, 1992) and in response to suggestions made as a result of the use of the previous report. The principal changes are that the reference site has been changed from a generic Northeast (Middletown) site to a more central site (EPRI`s East/West Central site) and that reference bulk commodity prices and labor productivity rates have been added. This report is designed to provide a framework for the preparation and reporting of costs. The cost estimates will consist of the overnight construction cost, the total plant capital cost, the operation and maintenance costs, the fuel costs, decommissioning costs and the power production or busbar generation cost.

  8. 支持向量机的国产飞机研制费用建模估算%Domestic Aircraft R & D Cost Modeling and Estimation Study Based on Support Vector Machine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马明昭; 王夷; 李静龙

    2014-01-01

    国产飞机研制费用建模因样本容量有限而导致了传统多元统计回归模型的适用性问题。应用支持向量机(SVM)理论进行多维空间小样本建模与估算,以国产运输机研制费为例,基于设计专业分解研制费用样本,采用变量投影重要性指标(VIP)筛选自变量,建立研制费用估算模型,并使用交叉检验与误差概率估计验证模型有效性。该模型方法适用于国产飞机研制费用估算,且可用于飞机改型及改装的经济性定量评估,便于项目早期决策使用。%Because of the lack of samples of china aircraft in modeling,the traditional multivariate regression aircraft cost estimation model can be only used in restricted area. To solve this problem, Support Vector Machine (SVM)theory is applied to deal with the multidimensional space with small sample modeling and estimation. Based on the cost breakdown structure of the specialties according to the cost sample data,the domestic transporter aircraft R&D cost estimation model is built by the combination of Variable Importance in Projection (VIP) for model independent variable selection , cross-validation ,estimation error probability estimates for checking model validity and SVM theory for modeling .The methods of cost modeling discussed here which can estimate the domestic aircraft R&D cost efficiently and reliably,can be easily used for economy evaluation and decision-making of aircraft retrofit in the early stages.

  9. 16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... RULE CONCERNING DISCLOSURES REGARDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND WATER USE OF CERTAIN HOME APPLIANCES AND... § 305.5 Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

  10. BIM: Integrating Cost Estimates at Initial/Design Stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raja Bukhary Raja Taihairan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The accuracy of the cost estimates is very important in the initial stage because it will determine the viability of the project and provide the project budget. Therefore, Inaccuracy of the cost estimates beyond the acceptable range will cause the cost overrun in the later stage. This research aims to recommend BIM to be applied as a part of the cost management process and to improve the cost estimating at the initial/design stage. In addition, this research will investigate the factors influencing the accuracy, why BIM not been applied to reduce the inaccuracy and how BIM can be integrated into cost estimates at the initial / design stage. This research was carried out via literature review, questionnaire survey and semi-structured interview. It was indicated that insufficient information related to the project, poor communication between project team and complexity of design and construction are the three most factors influenced the accuracy of cost estimates. While collaborating and sharing information between the project team, and investment in software and training are the barriers in implementing BIM. The research also found out that BIM is an integrated multi-disciplinary tool that serves architecture, structural and M&E. In addition, the capability of BIM in assisting cost estimates allow QS to focus more value adding activities in estimating such as: identifying construction assemblies, pricing and factoring risks, which are essential for high quality estimates. In conclusion, with the capability of BIM and its integration will help to minimize the error and enhance the project cost estimates in the future.

  11. Costing support and cost control in manufacturing. A cost estimation tool applied in the sheet metal domain.

    OpenAIRE

    ten Brinke, E.

    2002-01-01

    In the product development cycle several engineering tasks like design, process planning and production planning have to be executed. The execution of these tasks mainly involves information processing and decision-making. Because costs is an important factor in manufacturing, adequate information about costs is extremely valuable for all engineering tasks. Therefore, a cost estimation system for the generation of cost information and for cost control, integrated in the product development cy...

  12. Algebraic Lens Distortion Model Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Alvarez

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available A very important property of the usual pinhole model for camera projection is that 3D lines in the scene are projected to 2D lines. Unfortunately, wide-angle lenses (specially low-cost lenses may introduce a strong barrel distortion, which makes the usual pinhole model fail. Lens distortion models try to correct such distortion. We propose an algebraic approach to the estimation of the lens distortion parameters based on the rectification of lines in the image. Using the proposed method, the lens distortion parameters are obtained by minimizing a 4 total-degree polynomial in several variables. We perform numerical experiments using calibration patterns and real scenes to show the performance of the proposed method.

  13. Cost estimate for the Kilometric Optical Interferometer (KOI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Eric J.; Parameswariah, Chethan; Rajagopal, Jayadev

    2008-07-01

    We present a parametric cost estimate for the Kilometric Optical Interferometer (KOI) in a classical array configuration: 24 telescopes, 4-meter primary mirror, up to 1 km baseline. The parametric cost estimate is based on available cost information from the Magdalena Ridge Observatory (MRO) Interferometer at New Mexico Tech. A Kilometric Optical Interferometer based on a classical array concept has an estimated construction cost between 1B and 3B if it would be built today (2008 dollars and technology). The implication of the estimated construction cost is that cost reductions are critical in the planning phase to bring the cost within a reasonable envelope. Hence we propose to set a budget ceiling that seems feasible given the support to be expected from the scientific community and funding agencies. Given a budget ceiling, a design-to-cost process should be followed. We propose to set a construction phase budget cap of $800M (2008 dollars) for KOI as an initial goal. Narrowing down of the science goals in combination with technology development to reduce cost and technological complexity are the main areas of activities for the next decade. We propose to establish a virtual project office to coordinate these activities.

  14. Ontology-Based Representation and Reasoning in Building Construction Cost Estimation in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation is one of the most critical tasks for building construction project management. The existing building construction cost estimation methods of many countries, including China, require information from several sources, including material, labor, and equipment, and tend to be manual, time-consuming, and error-prone. To solve these problems, a building construction cost estimation model based on ontology representation and reasoning is established, which includes three major components, i.e., concept model ontology, work item ontology, and construction condition ontology. Using this model, the cost estimation information is modeled into OWL axioms and SWRL rules that leverage the semantically rich ontology representation to reason about cost estimation. Based on OWL axioms and SWRL rules, the cost estimation information can be translated into a set of concept models, work items, and construction conditions associated with the specific construction conditions. The proposed method is demonstrated in Protégé 3.4.8 through case studies based on the Measurement Specifications of Building Construction and Decoration Engineering taken from GB 50500-2013 (the Chinese national mandatory specifications. Finally, this research discusses the limitations of the proposed method and future research directions. The proposed method can help a building construction cost estimator extract information more easily and quickly.

  15. Animated-simulation modeling facilitates clinical-process costing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelman, W N; Glick, N D; Blackmore, C C

    2001-09-01

    Traditionally, the finance department has assumed responsibility for assessing process costs in healthcare organizations. To enhance process-improvement efforts, however, many healthcare providers need to include clinical staff in process cost analysis. Although clinical staff often use electronic spreadsheets to model the cost of specific processes, PC-based animated-simulation tools offer two major advantages over spreadsheets: they allow clinicians to interact more easily with the costing model so that it more closely represents the process being modeled, and they represent cost output as a cost range rather than as a single cost estimate, thereby providing more useful information for decision making.

  16. Preliminary Cost Estimates of Pollution Control Technologies for Geothermal Developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sung, R.; Houser, G.; Richard, G.; Cotter, J.; Weller, P.; Pulaski, E.

    1979-10-01

    This is the first report from the EPA estimating the cost of technology for mitigating pollution that might arise from geothermal power systems. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has taken an initial step towards the establishment of regulatory standards for the geothermal industry by preparing a document entitled Pollution Control Guidance for Geothermal Energy Development. This report supports that document by providing pollution control cost information. The objective of this report is to provide preliminary cost estimates for air and water pollution treatment and disposal technologies applicable for geothermal energy conversion systems. Cost estimates include both annualized capital investment and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for various levels of environmental requirements. [DJE-2005

  17. Estimating the costs of intensity-modulated and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy in Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, J H E; McGowan, T; Redmond-Misner, R; Beca, J; Warde, P; Gutierrez, E; Hoch, J S

    2016-06-01

    Radiotherapy is a common treatment for many cancers, but up-to-date estimates of the costs of radiotherapy are lacking. In the present study, we estimated the unit costs of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (imrt) and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-crt) in Ontario. An activity-based costing model was developed to estimate the costs of imrt and 3D-crt in prostate cancer. It included the costs of equipment, staff, and supporting infrastructure. The framework was subsequently adapted to estimate the costs of radiotherapy in breast cancer and head-and-neck cancer. We also tested various scenarios by varying the program maturity and the use of volumetric modulated arc therapy (vmat) alongside imrt. From the perspective of the health care system, treating prostate cancer with imrt and 3D-crt respectively cost $12,834 and $12,453 per patient. The cost of radiotherapy ranged from $5,270 to $14,155 and was sensitive to analytic perspective, radiation technique, and disease site. Cases of head-and-neck cancer were the most costly, being driven by treatment complexity and fractions per treatment. Although imrt was more costly than 3D-crt, its cost will likely decline over time as programs mature and vmat is incorporated. Our costing model can be modified to estimate the costs of 3D-crt and imrt for various disease sites and settings. The results demonstrate the important role of capital costs in studies of radiotherapy cost from a health system perspective, which our model can accommodate. In addition, our study established the need for future analyses of imrt cost to consider how vmat affects time consumption.

  18. Estimating the costs of intensity-modulated and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy in Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, J.H.E.; McGowan, T.; Redmond-Misner, R.; Beca, J.; Warde, P.; Gutierrez, E.; Hoch, J.S.

    2016-01-01

    Background Radiotherapy is a common treatment for many cancers, but up-to-date estimates of the costs of radiotherapy are lacking. In the present study, we estimated the unit costs of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (imrt) and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-crt) in Ontario. Methods An activity-based costing model was developed to estimate the costs of imrt and 3D-crt in prostate cancer. It included the costs of equipment, staff, and supporting infrastructure. The framework was subsequently adapted to estimate the costs of radiotherapy in breast cancer and head-and-neck cancer. We also tested various scenarios by varying the program maturity and the use of volumetric modulated arc therapy (vmat) alongside imrt. Results From the perspective of the health care system, treating prostate cancer with imrt and 3D-crt respectively cost $12,834 and $12,453 per patient. The cost of radiotherapy ranged from $5,270 to $14,155 and was sensitive to analytic perspective, radiation technique, and disease site. Cases of head-and-neck cancer were the most costly, being driven by treatment complexity and fractions per treatment. Although imrt was more costly than 3D-crt, its cost will likely decline over time as programs mature and vmat is incorporated. Conclusions Our costing model can be modified to estimate the costs of 3D-crt and imrt for various disease sites and settings. The results demonstrate the important role of capital costs in studies of radiotherapy cost from a health system perspective, which our model can accommodate. In addition, our study established the need for future analyses of imrt cost to consider how vmat affects time consumption. PMID:27330359

  19. Cost Calculation Model for Logistics Service Providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoltán Bokor

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The exact calculation of logistics costs has become a real challenge in logistics and supply chain management. It is essential to gain reliable and accurate costing information to attain efficient resource allocation within the logistics service provider companies. Traditional costing approaches, however, may not be sufficient to reach this aim in case of complex and heterogeneous logistics service structures. So this paper intends to explore the ways of improving the cost calculation regimes of logistics service providers and show how to adopt the multi-level full cost allocation technique in logistics practice. After determining the methodological framework, a sample cost calculation scheme is developed and tested by using estimated input data. Based on the theoretical findings and the experiences of the pilot project it can be concluded that the improved costing model contributes to making logistics costing more accurate and transparent. Moreover, the relations between costs and performances also become more visible, which enhances the effectiveness of logistics planning and controlling significantly

  20. A Decision Tool that Combines Discrete Event Software Process Models with System Dynamics Pieces for Software Development Cost Estimation and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizell, Carolyn Barrett; Malone, Linda

    2007-01-01

    The development process for a large software development project is very complex and dependent on many variables that are dynamic and interrelated. Factors such as size, productivity and defect injection rates will have substantial impact on the project in terms of cost and schedule. These factors can be affected by the intricacies of the process itself as well as human behavior because the process is very labor intensive. The complex nature of the development process can be investigated with software development process models that utilize discrete event simulation to analyze the effects of process changes. The organizational environment and its effects on the workforce can be analyzed with system dynamics that utilizes continuous simulation. Each has unique strengths and the benefits of both types can be exploited by combining a system dynamics model and a discrete event process model. This paper will demonstrate how the two types of models can be combined to investigate the impacts of human resource interactions on productivity and ultimately on cost and schedule.

  1. The Acquisition Cost-Estimating Workforce. Census and Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Abbreviations AAC Air Armament Center ACAT acquisition category ACEIT Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools AF Air Force AFB Air Force Base AFCAA Air...3 3 4 Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) 0 1 12 6 Tecolotea training 0 0 10 5 Other 3 13 24 18 No training 18 4 29 18 Total 100 100...other sources, including AFIT, ACEIT ,9 or the contracting agency that employed them. The remain- ing 29 percent reported having received no training

  2. Guidelines and Metrics for Assessing Space System Cost Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Overpass Rd. Santa Barbara , CA 93111 http:// www.technomics.net Sponsor Defense Communication Agency/Institute for Defense Analyses • • • • 117 CHAPTER...Jones, T. Capers , Estimating Software Costs, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998. Killingsworth, Paul, “Applying Cost Improvement Theory to the Production

  3. Cost Estimation of Naval Ship Acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-12-01

    data sources used and the degree of model refinement. 4. Is there any other person or agency working on the same projects? Has work been done on any...WITH ( 36- 2) 34 DEGREES OF FREEDOM R-S UARED:7 fl-SUIRD =7J:9 PERCENTSQUARED I PERCENT, ADJUSTED FOR D.F. ANALISIS CF VARIANCE DUE TO DF SS NS=SS/DF

  4. Minimum Cost Estimation of a Baseline Survey for a Molecular Epidemiology Cohort Study: Collecting Participants in a Model Region in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Ohashi, Kayo; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2016-01-01

    Background Some recent molecular epidemiology studies of the effects of genetic and environmental factors on human health have required the enrollment of more than 100 000 participants and the involvement of regional study offices across the country. Although regional study office investigators play a critical role in these studies, including the acquisition of funds, this role is rarely discussed. Methods We first differentiated the functions of the regional and central study offices. We then investigated the minimum number of items required and approximate cost of a molecular epidemiology study enrolling 7400 participants from a model region with a population of 100 000 for a 4-year baseline survey using a standard protocol developed based on the protocol of Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation. Results The functions of the regional study office were identified, and individual expenses were itemized. The total cost of the 4-year baseline survey was 153 million yen, excluding consumption tax. Accounting difficulties in conducting the survey were clarified. Conclusions We investigated a standardized example of the tasks and total actual costs of a regional study office. Our approach is easy to utilize and will help improve the management of regional study offices in future molecular epidemiology studies. PMID:27001116

  5. Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification: Independent Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruth, M.

    2011-10-01

    This independent review is the conclusion arrived at from data collection, document reviews, interviews and deliberation from December 2010 through April 2011 and the technical potential of Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification. The Panel reviewed the current H2A case (Version 2.12, Case 01D) for hydrogen production via biomass gasification and identified four principal components of hydrogen levelized cost: CapEx; feedstock costs; project financing structure; efficiency/hydrogen yield. The panel reexamined the assumptions around these components and arrived at new estimates and approaches that better reflect the current technology and business environments.

  6. Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification: Independent Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2011-10-01

    This independent review is the conclusion arrived at from data collection, document reviews, interviews and deliberation from December 2010 through April 2011 and the technical potential of Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification. The Panel reviewed the current H2A case (Version 2.12, Case 01D) for hydrogen production via biomass gasification and identified four principal components of hydrogen levelized cost: CapEx; feedstock costs; project financing structure; efficiency/hydrogen yield. The panel reexamined the assumptions around these components and arrived at new estimates and approaches that better reflect the current technology and business environments.

  7. Why don't All Exporters Benefit from Free Trade Agreements?: Estimating Utilization Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Ulloa, Alfie; Wagner, Rodrigo

    2012-01-01

    Free Trade Agreements (FTA) attract significant interest, but after these treaties are signed not all exporters use them. We provide a model of heterogeneous utilization, also developing a novel method to estimate treaty-utilization costs. We later apply the model to estimate the evolution utilization costs for the FTA between the US and a small open economy, Chile. Consistent with other studies, we find that utilization is indeed partial (on average 67% on the first year of the treaty, with ...

  8. Offshore Wind Balance-of-System Cost Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maness, Michael; Stehly, Tyler; Maples, Ben; Mone, Christopher

    2015-09-29

    Offshore wind balance-of-system (BOS) costs contribute up to 70% of installed capital costs. Thus, it is imperative to understand the impact of these costs on project economics as well as potential cost trends for new offshore wind technology developments. As a result, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed and recently updated a BOS techno-economic model using project cost estimates created from wind energy industry sources.

  9. Constellation Program Life-cycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, Andy; Rose, Heidi; Wood, James

    2008-01-01

    The Constellation Program (CxP) is NASA's effort to replace the Space Shuttle, return humans to the moon, and prepare for a human mission to Mars. The major elements of the Constellation Lunar sortie design reference mission architecture are shown. Unlike the Apollo Program of the 1960's, affordability is a major concern of United States policy makers and NASA management. To measure Constellation affordability, a total ownership cost life-cycle parametric cost estimating capability is required. This capability is being developed by the Constellation Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) Directorate, and is called the Lifecycle Cost Analysis Model (LCAM). The requirements for LCAM are based on the need to have a parametric estimating capability in order to do top-level program analysis, evaluate design alternatives, and explore options for future systems. By estimating the total cost of ownership within the context of the planned Constellation budget, LCAM can provide Program and NASA management with the cost data necessary to identify the most affordable alternatives. LCAM is also a key component of the Integrated Program Model (IPM), an SE&I developed capability that combines parametric sizing tools with cost, schedule, and risk models to perform program analysis. LCAM is used in the generation of cost estimates for system level trades and analyses. It draws upon the legacy of previous architecture level cost models, such as the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Architecture Cost Model (ARCOM) developed for Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA), and ATLAS. LCAM is used to support requirements and design trade studies by calculating changes in cost relative to a baseline option cost. Estimated costs are generally low fidelity to accommodate available input data and available cost estimating relationships (CERs). LCAM is capable of interfacing with the Integrated Program Model to provide the cost estimating capability for that suite of tools.

  10. Fuel Cell System for Transportation -- 2005 Cost Estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wheeler, D.

    2006-10-01

    Independent review report of the methodology used by TIAX to estimate the cost of producing PEM fuel cells using 2005 cell stack technology. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program Manager asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to commission an independent review of the 2005 TIAX cost analysis for fuel cell production. The NREL Systems Integrator is responsible for conducting independent reviews of progress toward meeting the DOE Hydrogen Program (the Program) technical targets. An important technical target of the Program is the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell cost in terms of dollars per kilowatt ($/kW). The Program's Multi-Year Program Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan established $125/kW as the 2005 technical target. Over the last several years, the Program has contracted with TIAX, LLC (TIAX) to produce estimates of the high volume cost of PEM fuel cell production for transportation use. Since no manufacturer is yet producing PEM fuel cells in the quantities needed for an initial hydrogen-based transportation economy, these estimates are necessary for DOE to gauge progress toward meeting its targets. For a PEM fuel cell system configuration developed by Argonne National Laboratory, TIAX estimated the total cost to be $108/kW, based on assumptions of 500,000 units per year produced with 2005 cell stack technology, vertical integration of cell stack manufacturing, and balance-of-plant (BOP) components purchased from a supplier network. Furthermore, TIAX conducted a Monte Carlo analysis by varying ten key parameters over a wide range of values and estimated with 98% certainty that the mean PEM fuel cell system cost would be below DOE's 2005 target of $125/kW. NREL commissioned DJW TECHNOLOGY, LLC to form an Independent Review Team (the Team) of industry fuel cell experts and to evaluate the cost estimation process and the results reported by TIAX. The results of

  11. Cost modelling as decision support when locating manufacturing facilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Windmark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology for cost estimation in developing decision supports for production location issues. The purpose is to provide a structured work procedure to be used by practitioners to derive the knowledge needed to make informed decisions on where to locate production. This paper present a special focus on how to integrate cost effects during the decision process. The work procedure and cost models were developed in close collaboration with a group of industrial partners. The result is a structure of cost estimation tools aligned to different steps in the work procedure. The cost models can facilitate both cost estimation for manufacturing a product under new preconditions, including support costs, and cost simulations to analyse the risks of wrong estimations and uncertainties in the input parameters. Future research aims to test the methodology in ongoing transfer projects to further understand difficulties in managing global production systems. In existing models and methods presented in the literature, cost is usually estimated on a too aggregated level to be suitable for decision support regarding production system design. The cost estimation methodology presented here provides new insights on cost driving factors related to the production system.

  12. A Departmental Cost-Effectiveness Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holleman, Thomas, Jr.

    In establishing a departmental cost-effectiveness model, the traditional cost-effectiveness model was discussed and equipped with a distant and deflation equation for both benefits and costs. Next, the economics of costing was examined and program costing procedures developed. Then, the model construct was described as it was structured around the…

  13. The Yale Cost Model and cost centres: servant or master?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigby, E

    1993-01-01

    Cost accounting describes that aspect of accounting which collects, allocates and controls the cost of producing a service. Costing information is primarily reported to management to enable control of costs and to ensure the financial viability of units, departments and divisions. As costing studies continue to produce estimates of Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) costs in New South Wales hospitals, as well as in other states, costs for different hospitals are being externally compared, using a tool which is usually related to internal management and reporting. Comparability of costs is assumed even though accounting systems differ. This paper examines the cost centre structures at five major teaching hospitals in Sydney. It describes the similarities and differences in how the cost centres were constituted, and then details the line items of expenditure that are charged to each cost centre. The results of a comparative study of a medical specialty are included as evidence of different costing methodologies in the hospitals. The picture that emerged from the study is that the hospitals are constituting their cost centres to meet their internal management needs, that is, to know the cost of running a ward or nursing unit, a medical specialty, department and so on. The rationale for the particular cost centre construction was that cost centre managers could manage and control costs and assign responsibility. There are variations in procedures for assigning costs to cost centres, and the question is asked 'Do these variations in procedures make a material difference to our ability to compare costs per Diagnosis Related Group at the various hospitals?' It is contended that the accounting information, which is produced as a result of different practices, is primarily for internal management, not external comparison. It would be better for hospitals to compare their estimated costs per Diagnosis Related Group to an internal standard cost rather than the costs from other

  14. Cost damping and functional form in transport models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2015-01-01

    take different forms and be represented as a non-linear-in-parameter form such as the well-known Box–Cox function. However, it could also be specified as non-linear-in-cost but linear-in-parameter forms, which are easier to estimate and improve model fit without increasing the number of parameters....... The specific contributions of the paper are as follows. Firstly, we discuss the phenomenon of cost damping in details and specifically why it occurs. Secondly, we provide a test of damping and an easy assessment of the (linear) damping rate for any variable by estimating two auxiliary linear models. This turns......Transport models allowing for cost damping are characterised by marginally decreasing cost sensitivities in demand. As a result, cost damping is a model extension of the simple linear-in-cost model requiring an appropriate non-linear link function between utility and cost. The link function may...

  15. Cost damping and functional form in transport models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2016-01-01

    Transport models allowing for cost damping are characterised by marginally decreasing cost sensitivities in demand. As a result, cost damping is a model extension of the simple linear-in-cost model requiring an appropriate non-linear link function between utility and cost. The link function may...... take different forms and be represented as a non-linear-in-parameter form such as the well-known Box–Cox function. However, it could also be specified as non-linear-in-cost but linear-in-parameter forms, which are easier to estimate and improve model fit without increasing the number of parameters....... The specific contributions of the paper are as follows. Firstly, we discuss the phenomenon of cost damping in details and specifically why it occurs. Secondly, we provide a test of damping and an easy assessment of the (linear) damping rate for any variable by estimating two auxiliary linear models. This turns...

  16. Cost estimation and economical evaluation of three configurations of activated sludge process for a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) using simulation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jafarinejad, Shahryar

    ...s. Economical modeling and cost estimation of activated sludge processes are crucial for designing, construction, and forecasting future economical requirements of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs...

  17. Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrasko, K. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Beach, R. [RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Kindermann, G. [International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Obersteiner, M. [International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Rametsteiner, E. [International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Sathaye, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States); Schlamadinger, B. [TerraCarbon, Graz, (Austria); Sohngen, B. [Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States); Wunder, S. [Center for International Forestry Research, Belem-PA (Brazil)

    2008-07-15

    Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of glboal land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 x 105 g) CO2{center_dot}yr-1 in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion{center_dot}yr-1 for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO2{center_dot}yr-1 in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion{center_dot}yr-1. Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.

  18. How Much? Cost Models for Online Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo, George

    2001-01-01

    Reviews some of the research being done in the area of cost models for online education. Describes a cost analysis handbook; an activity-based costing model that was based on an economic model for traditional instruction at the Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis; and blending other costing models. (LRW)

  19. Estimating the mental health costs of racial discrimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, Amanuel; Paradies, Yin

    2016-11-29

    Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimated indirect non-health related productivity costs. In this study, we estimate the burden of disease due to exposure to racial discrimination and measure the cost of this exposure. Using prevalence surveys and data on the association of racial discrimination with health outcomes from a global meta-analysis, we apply a cost of illness method to measure the impact of racial discrimination. This estimate indicates the direct health cost attributable to racial discrimination and we convert the estimates to monetary values based on conventional parameters. Racial discrimination costs the Australian economy 235,452 in disability adjusted life years lost, equivalent to $37.9 billion per annum, roughly 3.02% of annual gross domestic product (GDP) over 2001-11, indicating a sizeable loss for the economy. Substantial cost is incurred due to increased prevalence of racial discrimination as a result of its association with negative health outcomes (e.g. depression, anxiety and PTSD). This implies that potentially significant cost savings can be made through measures that target racial discrimination. Our research contributes to the debate on the social impact of racial discrimination, with implications for policies and efforts addressing it.

  20. Hyperketonemia in early lactation dairy cattle: a deterministic estimate of component and total cost per case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McArt, J A A; Nydam, D V; Overton, M W

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a deterministic economic model to estimate the costs associated with (1) the component cost per case of hyperketonemia (HYK) and (2) the total cost per case of HYK when accounting for costs related to HYK-attributed diseases. Data from current literature was used to model the incidence and risks of HYK (defined as a blood β-hydroxybutyrate concentration≥1.2 mmol/L), displaced abomasa (DA), metritis, disease associations, milk production, culling, and reproductive outcomes. The component cost of HYK was estimated based on 1,000 calvings per year; the incidence of HYK in primiparous and multiparous animals; the percent of animals receiving clinical treatment; the direct costs of diagnostics, therapeutics, labor, and death loss; and the indirect costs of future milk production losses, future culling losses, and reproduction losses. Costs attributable to DA and metritis were estimated based on the incidence of each disease in the first 30 DIM; the number of cases of each disease attributable to HYK; the direct costs of diagnostics, therapeutics, discarded milk during treatment and the withdrawal period, veterinary service (DA only), and death loss; and the indirect costs of future milk production losses, future culling losses, and reproduction losses. The component cost per case of HYK was estimated at $134 and $111 for primiparous and multiparous animals, respectively; the average component cost per case of HYK was estimated to be $117. Thirty-four percent of the component cost of HYK was due to future reproductive losses, 26% to death loss, 26% to future milk production losses, 8% to future culling losses, 3% to therapeutics, 2% to labor, and 1% to diagnostics. The total cost per case of HYK was estimated at $375 and $256 for primiparous and multiparous animals, respectively; the average total cost per case of HYK was $289. Forty-one percent of the total cost of HYK was due to the component cost of HYK, 33% to costs

  1. Evaluation of economic effects of population ageing--methodology of estimating indirect costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Agata; Czech, Marcin; Gębska-Kuczerowska, Anita

    2015-01-01

    Process of demographic ageing, especially in recent decades, is steadily growing in dynamics and importance due to increasing health-related needs and expectations with regard to a guarantee of social services. Elaboration of the most effective model of care, tailored to Polish conditions, requires an estimation of actual costs of this care, including indirect costs which are greatly related to informal care. The fact that the costs of informal care are omitted, results from a determined approach to analyses. It is discussed only from a perspective of budget for health and does not cover societal aspects. In such situation, however, the costs borne by a receiver of services are neglected. As a consequence, the costs of informal care are underestimated or often excluded from calculations, even if they include indirect costs. Comprehensive methodological approach for estimating the costs of informal care seems to be important for a properly conducted economic evaluation in health care sector.

  2. Research on Cost Estimation Model in Shandong Yellow River Sluice's Regular Reinforcement%山东黄河水闸定期加固中的成本估计模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李克

    2015-01-01

    在山东黄河水闸定期加固中的成本估计过程中,采用传统算法进行成本估计容易丢失信息,导致估计精度低。为此,本文提出了一种基于改进神经网络算法的山东黄河水闸定期加固中的成本估计方法,利用神经网络输入和输出关系的高度非线性映射关系和自我学习能力组建水闸定期加固中的成本估计模型,融合模糊理论集,得到水闸定期加固中的成本估计历史数据与主要特征属性,在分析成本估计组织结构的同时,比较不同时期黄河水闸加固中的成本估计类比,将其模糊相似性定量化,对黄河水闸定期加固中的成本进行了详细的估算。实验仿真证明,基于改进神经网络算法的山东黄河水闸定期加固中的成本估计方法精度高,实用性强。%In the cost estimation of the regular reinforcement of Yellow River sluice, the adoption of the traditional algo⁃rithm usually causes the loss of information and the low estimated accuracy.For this reason, based on improved neural net⁃work algorithm, this paper proposes a kind of cost estimation method for the regular reinforcement of Yellow River sluice. By use of the high nonlinear mapping relationship between the input and output of neural network and the ability of self learning, it forms a cost estimation model of the regular reinforcement of the sluice, through fusion with the fuzzy theory set, it gets the historical data and the main characteristic attributes of the cost estimation of the regular reinforcement of the sluice, when analyzing the organization structure of cost estimation, it compares the cost estimation analogies of the re⁃inforcement of Yellow River sluice in different times, and quantifies their fuzzy similarities, then accomplishes the successful estimation of the cost of the regular reinforcement of Yellow River sluice. Simulation experiment proves that the cost estimation method based on improved

  3. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling Installation and Decommissioning

    CERN Document Server

    Kaiser, Mark J

    2012-01-01

    Offshore wind energy is one of the most promising and fastest growing alternative energy sources in the world. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a methodological framework to assess installation and decommissioning costs, and using examples from the European experience, provides a broad review of existing processes and systems used in the offshore wind industry. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling provides a step-by-step guide to modeling costs over four sections. These sections cover: ·Background and introductory material, ·Installation processes and vessel requirements, ·Installation cost estimation, and ·Decommissioning methods and cost estimation.  This self-contained and detailed treatment of the key principles in offshore wind development is supported throughout by visual aids and data tables. Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modeling is a key resource for anyone interested in the offshore wind industry, particularly those interested in the technical and economic aspects of installation and decom...

  4. The Hospitalization Costs of Diabetes and Hypertension Complications in Zimbabwe: Estimations and Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutsa P. Mutowo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Treating complications associated with diabetes and hypertension imposes significant costs on health care systems. This study estimated the hospitalization costs for inpatients in a public hospital in Zimbabwe. Methods. The study was retrospective and utilized secondary data from medical records. Total hospitalization costs were estimated using generalized linear models. Results. The median cost and interquartile range (IQR for patients with diabetes, $994 (385–1553 mean $1319 (95% CI: 981–1657, was higher than patients with hypertension, $759 (494–1147 mean $914 (95% CI: 825–1003. Female patients aged below 65 years with diabetes had the highest estimated mean costs ($1467 (95% CI: 1177–1828. Wound care had the highest estimated mean cost of all procedures, $2884 (95% CI: 2004–4149 for patients with diabetes and $2239 (95% CI: 1589–3156 for patients with hypertension. Age below 65 years, medical procedures (amputation, wound care, dialysis, and physiotherapy, the presence of two or more comorbidities, and being prescribed two or more drugs were associated with significantly higher hospitalization costs. Conclusion. Our estimated costs could be used to evaluate and improve current inpatient treatment and management of patients with diabetes and hypertension and determine the most cost-effective interventions to prevent complications and comorbidities.

  5. Double robust estimator of average causal treatment effect for censored medical cost data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuan; Beste, Lauren A; Maier, Marissa M; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

    2016-08-15

    In observational studies, estimation of average causal treatment effect on a patient's response should adjust for confounders that are associated with both treatment exposure and response. In addition, the response, such as medical cost, may have incomplete follow-up. In this article, a double robust estimator is proposed for average causal treatment effect for right censored medical cost data. The estimator is double robust in the sense that it remains consistent when either the model for the treatment assignment or the regression model for the response is correctly specified. Double robust estimators increase the likelihood the results will represent a valid inference. Asymptotic normality is obtained for the proposed estimator, and an estimator for the asymptotic variance is also derived. Simulation studies show good finite sample performance of the proposed estimator and a real data analysis using the proposed method is provided as illustration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Implementing a trustworthy cost-accounting model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Jay; Seargeant, Dan

    2015-03-01

    Hospitals and health systems can develop an effective cost-accounting model and maximize the effectiveness of their cost-accounting teams by focusing on six key areas: Implementing an enhanced data model. Reconciling data efficiently. Accommodating multiple cost-modeling techniques. Improving transparency of cost allocations. Securing department manager participation. Providing essential education and training to staff members and stakeholders.

  7. Estimating the extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minh, Hoang Van; Giang, Kim Bao; Liem, Nguyen Thanh; Palmer, Michael; Thao, Nguyen Phuong; Duong, Le Bach

    2015-01-01

    Disability is shown to be both a cause and a consequence of poverty. However, relatively little research has investigated the economic cost of living with a disability. This study reports the results of a study on the extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam in 2011. The study was carried out in eight cities/provinces in Vietnam, including Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh cities (two major metropolitan in Vietnam) and six provinces from each of the six socio-economic regions in Vietnam. Costs are estimated using the standard of living approach whereby the difference in incomes between people with disability and those without disability for a given standard of living serves as a proxy for the cost of living with disability. The extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam accounted for about 8.8-9.5% of annual household income, or valued about US$200-218. Communication difficulty was shown to result in highest additional cost of living with disability and self-care difficulty was shown to lead to the lowest levels of extra of living cost. The extra cost of living with disability increased as people had more severe impairment. Interventions to promote the economic security of livelihood for people with disabilities are needed.

  8. Stochastic Estimation of Cost Frontier: Evidence from Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan

    2012-01-01

    In the literature of higher education cost function study, enough knowledge is created in the area of economy scale in the context of developed countries but the knowledge of input demand is lacking. On the other hand, empirical knowledge in the context of developing countries is very meagre. The paper fills up the knowledge gap, estimating a…

  9. Cost Estimation for Cross-organizational ERP Projects: Research Perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daneva, M.; Wieringa, R.J.; Bieman, J.

    2008-01-01

    There are many methods for estimating size, effort, schedule and other cost aspects of IS projects, but only one specifically developed for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) [67] and none for simultaneous, interdependent ERP projects in a cross-organizational context. The objective of this paper is

  10. An Application of Data Mining Algorithms for Shipbuilding Cost Estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaluzny, B.L.; Barbici, S.; Berg, G.; Chiomento, R.; Derpanis,D.; Jonsson, U.; Shaw, R.H.A.D.; Smit, M.C.; Ramaroson, F.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a novel application of known data mining algorithms to the problem of estimating the cost of ship development and construction. The work is a product of North Atlantic Treaty Organization Research and Technology Organization Systems Analysis and Studies 076 Task Group “NATO Ind

  11. Design and cost estimation of the ASACUSA dipole magnets (PXMCXAFWAC)

    CERN Document Server

    Newborough, Antony

    2011-01-01

    This note describes the design and cost estimation for two horizontal bending magnets (PXMCXAFWAC) needed upstream of the ASACUSA experiment of the CERN AD (Antiproton Decelerator) Machine. These magnets are to replace the two corrector magnets (PXMCCAVWAP) which do not fulfil the requirements in terms of free horizontal aperture and field quality.

  12. A Semantics-Based Approach to Construction Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknam, Mehrdad

    2015-01-01

    A construction project requires collaboration of different organizations such as owner, designer, contractor, and resource suppliers. These organizations need to exchange information to improve their teamwork. Understanding the information created in other organizations requires specialized human resources. Construction cost estimating is one of…

  13. Cost Estimation for Cross-organizational ERP Projects: Research Perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daneva, Maia; Bieman, J.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    There are many methods for estimating size, effort, schedule and other cost aspects of IS projects, but only one specifically developed for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) [67] and none for simultaneous, interdependent ERP projects in a cross-organizational context. The objective of this paper is

  14. A Semantics-Based Approach to Construction Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknam, Mehrdad

    2015-01-01

    A construction project requires collaboration of different organizations such as owner, designer, contractor, and resource suppliers. These organizations need to exchange information to improve their teamwork. Understanding the information created in other organizations requires specialized human resources. Construction cost estimating is one of…

  15. Stochastic Estimation of Cost Frontier: Evidence from Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan

    2012-01-01

    In the literature of higher education cost function study, enough knowledge is created in the area of economy scale in the context of developed countries but the knowledge of input demand is lacking. On the other hand, empirical knowledge in the context of developing countries is very meagre. The paper fills up the knowledge gap, estimating a…

  16. Methods of statistical model estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Hilbe, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Methods of Statistical Model Estimation examines the most important and popular methods used to estimate parameters for statistical models and provide informative model summary statistics. Designed for R users, the book is also ideal for anyone wanting to better understand the algorithms used for statistical model fitting. The text presents algorithms for the estimation of a variety of regression procedures using maximum likelihood estimation, iteratively reweighted least squares regression, the EM algorithm, and MCMC sampling. Fully developed, working R code is constructed for each method. Th

  17. Cost estimation and analysis using the Sherpa Automated Mine Cost Engineering System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stebbins, P.E. [Western Mine Engineering, Spokane, WA (United States)

    1993-09-01

    The Sherpa Automated Mine Cost Engineering System is a menu-driven software package designed to estimate capital and operating costs for proposed surface mining operations. The program is engineering (as opposed to statistically) based, meaning that all equipment, manpower, and supply requirements are determined from deposit geology, project design and mine production information using standard engineering techniques. These requirements are used in conjunction with equipment, supply, and labor cost databases internal to the program to estimate all associated costs. Because virtually all on-site cost parameters are interrelated within the program, Sherpa provides an efficient means of examining the impact of changes in the equipment mix on total capital and operating costs. If any aspect of the operation is changed, Sherpa immediately adjusts all related aspects as necessary. For instance, if the user wishes to examine the cost ramifications of selecting larger trucks, the program not only considers truck purchase and operation costs, it also automatically and immediately adjusts excavator requirements, operator and mechanic needs, repair facility size, haul road construction and maintenance costs, and ancillary equipment specifications.

  18. Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yoonseok

    2015-01-01

    Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT) is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN) model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.

  19. Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoonseok Shin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.

  20. 874 CONSTRUCTION COST MODELS FOR HIGHRISE OFFICE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2015-10-28

    Oct 28, 2015 ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies & Management 8(Suppl. 2): 874 – 880, 2015. ... Key Words: Cost, Highrise, Models, Nigeria, Office, Construction. Introduction .... the modern trend in cost analysis and cost planning ...

  1. 2002 IDA Cost Research Symposium: Estimating the Costs of Transforming U.S. Military Forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-08-01

    Missile Database Improvements • ACEIT Enhancements VIII-5 6I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Capability to Cost...systems • Expand CERs • Create interface to download to CO$STAT for CER development • Extract CERs and move them into ACEIT • Supports: Conventional...Cost Model MDA–5 Integrating MDA Cost Risk Model with ACEIT MDA–6 Target Common Cost Model MDA–7 Deployable Optics Development and Manufacturing MDA

  2. Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tidball, Rick [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Bluestein, Joel [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Rodriguez, Nick [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Knoke, Stu [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2010-11-01

    The goal of this project was to compare and contrast utility scale power plant characteristics used in data sets that support energy market models. Characteristics include both technology cost and technology performance projections to the year 2050. Cost parameters include installed capital costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Performance parameters include plant size, heat rate, capacity factor or availability factor, and plant lifetime. Conventional, renewable, and emerging electricity generating technologies were considered. Six data sets, each associated with a different model, were selected. Two of the data sets represent modeled results, not direct model inputs. These two data sets include cost and performance improvements that result from increased deployment as well as resulting capacity factors estimated from particular model runs; other data sets represent model input data. For the technologies contained in each data set, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was also evaluated, according to published cost, performance, and fuel assumptions.

  3. Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tidball, R.; Bluestein, J.; Rodriguez, N.; Knoke, S.

    2010-11-01

    The goal of this project was to compare and contrast utility scale power plant characteristics used in data sets that support energy market models. Characteristics include both technology cost and technology performance projections to the year 2050. Cost parameters include installed capital costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Performance parameters include plant size, heat rate, capacity factor or availability factor, and plant lifetime. Conventional, renewable, and emerging electricity generating technologies were considered. Six data sets, each associated with a different model, were selected. Two of the data sets represent modeled results, not direct model inputs. These two data sets include cost and performance improvements that result from increased deployment as well as resulting capacity factors estimated from particular model runs; other data sets represent model input data. For the technologies contained in each data set, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was also evaluated, according to published cost, performance, and fuel assumptions.

  4. Probabilistic markov model estimating cost effectiveness of methylphenidate osmotic-release oral system versus immediate-release methylphenidate in children and adolescents: Which information is needed?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.J. Schawo (Saskia); A. van der Kolk (Annemarie); C.A.M. Bouwmans-Frijters (Clazien); L. Annemans (Lieven); M.J. Postma (Maarten); J.K. Buitelaar (Jan); M. van Agthoven (Michel); L. van Hakkaart-van Roijen (Leona)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Incidence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children and adolescents has been increasing. The disorder results in high societal costs. Policymakers increasingly use health economic evaluations to inform decisions on competing treatments of ADHD. Yet,

  5. Parameter and Uncertainty Estimation in Groundwater Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Birk

    The data basis on which groundwater models are constructed is in general very incomplete, and this leads to uncertainty in model outcome. Groundwater models form the basis for many, often costly decisions and if these are to be made on solid grounds, the uncertainty attached to model results must...... be quantified. This study was motivated by the need to estimate the uncertainty involved in groundwater models.Chapter 2 presents an integrated surface/subsurface unstructured finite difference model that was developed and applied to a synthetic case study.The following two chapters concern calibration...... and uncertainty estimation. Essential issues relating to calibration are discussed. The classical regression methods are described; however, the main focus is on the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The next two chapters describe case studies in which the GLUE methodology...

  6. Cost estimation for solid waste management in industrialising regions--precedents, problems and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthan, Shantha R; Milke, Mark W; Wilson, David C; Cocks, John H

    2012-03-01

    The importance of cost planning for solid waste management (SWM) in industrialising regions (IR) is not well recognised. The approaches used to estimate costs of SWM can broadly be classified into three categories - the unit cost method, benchmarking techniques and developing cost models using sub-approaches such as cost and production function analysis. These methods have been developed into computer programmes with varying functionality and utility. IR mostly use the unit cost and benchmarking approach to estimate their SWM costs. The models for cost estimation, on the other hand, are used at times in industrialised countries, but not in IR. Taken together, these approaches could be viewed as precedents that can be modified appropriately to suit waste management systems in IR. The main challenges (or problems) one might face while attempting to do so are a lack of cost data, and a lack of quality for what data do exist. There are practical benefits to planners in IR where solid waste problems are critical and budgets are limited.

  7. Return of feature-based cost modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creese, Robert C.; Patrawala, Taher B.

    1998-10-01

    Feature Based Cost Modeling is thought of as a relative new approach to cost modeling, but feature based cost modeling had considerable development in the 1950's. Considerable work was published in the 1950's by Boeing on cost for various casting processes--sand casting, die casting, investment casting and permanent mold casting--as a function of a single casting feature, casting volume. Additional approaches to feature based cost modeling have been made, and this work is a review of previous works and a proposed integrated model to feature based cost modeling.

  8. Parametric study of the cost estimate for radio frequency system of compact linear collider

    CERN Document Server

    Nummela, Antti; Österberg, Kenneth

    In this thesis the cost of so called RF units of CLIC particle collider was examined when RF units’ configuration was considered to be lengthened according to several alternative scenarios. According to current estimates these structures correspond to approximately 20 % of the total cost of CLIC collider and as such the savings achieved in their cost could be significant when total cost of CLIC project is looked into. The unit cost of longer RF units would be greater when compared to the baseline scenario but as smaller quantity would be required cost savings might be achieved. The aim was to find out if cost savings would accumulate and if so, how significant these savings might be. Research material used was mainly internal CERN resources such as earlier cost estimates and tenders received from the industry for production of different components. Based on these cost estimate models were created for three different configurations for lengthening the RF units. The research was limited to the cost of RF unit...

  9. Estimating the economic costs of skin cancer in New South Wales, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Christopher M; Ling, Rod; Byrnes, Joshua; Crane, Melanie; Searles, Andrew; Perez, Donna; Shakeshaft, Anthony

    2015-09-23

    Skin cancer is one of the most common cancers in the world. The increased incidence of skin cancer, combined with limited health care resources and tight budgetary conditions, has increased the importance of understanding the economic impact of skin cancer. This research estimates the economic cost of skin cancer in the Australian state of New South Wales. An incidence based approach is used to estimate lifetime costs of skin cancer. Both direct and indirect costs are considered - direct costs include resources associated with the management of skin cancer and indirect costs refer to productivity costs associated with morbidity and premature mortality. Diagnosis of skin cancer was determined according to ICD-10 codes using principal diagnosis. Linked administrative data and regression modelling are used to calculate costs; presented as Australian dollars for the year 2010. The human capital approach is used to value present and future productivity losses. The lifetime cost of the 150,000 incident cases of skin cancer diagnosed in NSW in 2010 is estimated at $536 million ($44,796 per melanoma and $2459 per non-melanoma). Direct costs accounted for 72 % of costs ($10,230 per melanoma and $2336 per non-melanoma) and indirect costs accounted for 28 % of costs ($34,567 per melanoma and $123 per non-melanoma). Direct costs are, on average, higher for females than males with indirect costs, on average, higher for males than females. This research provides new evidence on the economic cost of skin cancer and provides policy makers with information of the potential monetary savings that may arise from efforts to reduce the incidence of skin cancer.

  10. ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill.

  11. A REVIEW OF ESTIMATION OF SOFTWARE PRODUCTS DEVELOPMENT COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edin Osmanbegović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modern business and management of business processes, the standardization of procedures allows the creation of added value, increasing competitiveness and success in the business of an organization. Evaluation of the budget for software development is crucial to the success of an IT project, because the inability to make a realistic assessment leads to inadequate project plans, customer dissatisfaction, poor quality of software products, and reduced profits. In order to minimize such situations, making accurate and reliable software cost estimation should be carried out at all stages of the project life cycle. Although hundreds of research articles focusing on the application of different methods of budget estimates of the software product have been published so far, there is no comprehensive review of the current situation or review of research trends in the budget estimates of the software product. This paper aims to create a framework for estimation of costs of development of software products by providing an overview of the most influential researchers, the most influential articles published in the WoS database, the most used keywords for searching the articles, as well as a review of the estimation techniques used in budget estimates of the software product.

  12. A Modified Cost Estimation Formulae for Calculating Manufacturing Cost of Injection Part/Mold

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In modern society, a plastic part has its own important position. To the managers and decision-makers in the field of plastic component, how to decide the manufacturing cost of the injection part or injection mold as quickly as possible is most valuable. Cost estimation formulae (CEF) are the most common method to evaluate the cost of injection part/mold, which is similar to our ordinary thinking. In this paper, a CEF method used by Dr. Weiyi Hu in Massachusetts University is first discussed. To the problems existed in the formulae, we propose an improved algorithm. This algorithm can be used to estimate the manufacturing cost of injection part/mold accurately in the early design stage.

  13. Green procurement of buildings: estimation of environmental impact and life-cycle cost

    OpenAIRE

    Sterner, Eva

    2002-01-01

    This thesis focuses on environmental impact reduction and life-cycle cost estimations in building procurement. The aim for the work presented in this thesis is to contribute to the understanding of whether costs and environmental impact of a building can be integrated in a, from the users perspective, practical model applied for tender evaluation. The model should also be able to use as a base of evaluating different solutions in the design phase. Specifically this means to: Increase knowledg...

  14. Breckinridge Project, initial effort. Report VIII. Capital cost estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1982-01-01

    The major objective of the Initial Effort for the Breckinridge Project is to develop engineering to the point where realistic economics for the construction and operation of the plant can be made. The plant is designed to process 23,000 tons per day of run-of-mine coal to produce a nominal 50,000 barrels per day of liquid products using the H-COAL and standard industry technology. The plant will be located in Breckinridge County, Kentucky. Considerable preliminary engineering has been performed for this estimate. This work uses a single-point design based on the Process Demonstration Unit (PDU) data from run 5, period 29 of the pilot plant. The design basis is discussed in Volume II of this report. Many aspects of plant construction and cost have been considered that were not taken into account in the past studies. Ashland and Bechtel believe the accuracy of the capital estimate to be +19%, -17%. This accuracy is postulated on January 1981 dollars, the as-spent dollar amount naturally depending upon the inflation rate through the construction period. Considerable attention has been devoted to reliability of operation, and redundant equipment has been used where it was deemed necessary to assure reasonable onstream time. This equipment is included in the capital estimate. The capital is summarized by total plant cost on Table 1. The subtotal plant cost, excluding contingency, fee, and adjustment is $2,710,940,000. Adding the contingency, fee and adjustment, the total depreciable cost of the plant is $3,167,430,000. Adding the working capital to the total plant cost results in total capital requirements of $3,258,430,000 as shown on the individual plant cost summary Table 2.

  15. Artificial neural networks incorporating cost significant Items towards enhancing estimation for (life-cycle costing of construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayedh Alqahtani

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial application of life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA is somewhat limited, with techniques deemed overly theoretical, resulting in a reluctance to realise (and pass onto the client the advantages to be gained from objective (LCCA comparison of (subcomponent material specifications. To address the need for a user-friendly structured approach to facilitate complex processing, the work described here develops a new, accessible framework for LCCA of construction projects; it acknowledges Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs to compute the whole-cost(s of construction and uses the concept of cost significant items (CSI to identify the main cost factors affecting the accuracy of estimation. ANNs is a powerful means to handle non-linear problems and subsequently map between complex input/output data, address uncertainties. A case study documenting 20 building projects was used to test the framework and estimate total running costs accurately. Two methods were used to develop a neural network model; firstly a back-propagation method was adopted (using MATLAB SOFTWARE; and secondly, spread-sheet optimisation was conducted (using Microsoft Excel Solver. The best network was established as consisting of 19 hidden nodes, with the tangent sigmoid used as a transfer function of NNs model for both methods. The results find that in both neural network models, the accuracy of the developed NNs model is 1% (via Excel-solver and 2% (via back-propagation respectively.

  16. Estimating Functions and Semiparametric Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Labouriau, Rodrigo

    1996-01-01

    The thesis is divided in two parts. The first part treats some topics of the estimation theory for semiparametric models in general. There the classic optimality theory is reviewed and exposed in a suitable way for the further developments given after. Further the theory of estimating functions...... contained in this part of the thesis constitutes an original contribution. There can be found the detailed characterization of the class of regular estimating functions, a calculation of efficient regular asymptotic linear estimating sequences (\\ie the classical optimality theory) and a discussion...... of the attainability of the bounds for the concentration of regular asymptotic linear estimating sequences by estimators derived from estimating functions. The main class of models considered in the second part of the thesis (chapter 5) are constructed by assuming that the expectation of a number of given square...

  17. Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs: A user`s manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bierschbach, M.C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-06-01

    Nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review their decommissioning cost estimates. This user`s manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning boiling water reactor (BWR) power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning.

  18. Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs. A user`s manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software: Draft report for comment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bierschbach, M.C. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the U.S. Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user`s manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning BWR power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning.

  19. The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundaram, Meenakshi

    2005-01-01

    NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

  20. Cost Estimation of Laser Additive Manufacturing of Stainless Steel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piili, Heidi; Happonen, Ari; Väistö, Tapio; Venkataramanan, Vijaikrishnan; Partanen, Jouni; Salminen, Antti

    Laser additive manufacturing (LAM) is a layer wise fabrication method in which a laser beam melts metallic powder to form solid objects. Although 3D printing has been invented 30 years ago, the industrial use is quite limited whereas the introduction of cheap consumer 3D printers, in recent years, has familiarized the 3D printing. Interest is focused more and more in manufacturing of functional parts. Aim of this study is to define and discuss the current economic opportunities and restrictions of LAM process. Manufacturing costs were studied with different build scenarios each with estimated cost structure by calculated build time and calculating the costs of the machine, material and energy with optimized machine utilization. All manufacturing and time simulations in this study were carried out with a research machine equal to commercial EOS M series equipment. The study shows that the main expense in LAM is the investment cost of the LAM machine, compared to which the relative proportions of the energy and material costs are very low. The manufacturing time per part is the key factor to optimize costs of LAM.

  1. A Project Management Approach to Using Simulation for Cost Estimation on Large, Complex Software Development Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizell, Carolyn; Malone, Linda

    2007-01-01

    It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

  2. 48 CFR 1852.216-85 - Estimated cost and award fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost and award... and Clauses 1852.216-85 Estimated cost and award fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(e), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Award Fee (SEP 1993) The estimated cost of this contract is $___....

  3. 48 CFR 1852.216-74 - Estimated cost and fixed fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost and fixed... and Clauses 1852.216-74 Estimated cost and fixed fee. As prescribed in 1816.307-70(b), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Fixed Fee (DEC 1991) The estimated cost of this contract...

  4. Benefit-cost estimation for alternative drinking water maximum contaminant levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurian, Patrick L.; Small, Mitchell J.; Lockwood, John R.; Schervish, Mark J.

    2001-08-01

    A simulation model for estimating compliance behavior and resulting costs at U.S. Community Water Suppliers is developed and applied to the evaluation of a more stringent maximum contaminant level (MCL) for arsenic. Probability distributions of source water arsenic concentrations are simulated using a statistical model conditioned on system location (state) and source water type (surface water or groundwater). This model is fit to two recent national surveys of source waters, then applied with the model explanatory variables for the population of U.S. Community Water Suppliers. Existing treatment types and arsenic removal efficiencies are also simulated. Utilities with finished water arsenic concentrations above the proposed MCL are assumed to select the least cost option compatible with their existing treatment from among 21 available compliance strategies and processes for meeting the standard. Estimated costs and arsenic exposure reductions at individual suppliers are aggregated to estimate the national compliance cost, arsenic exposure reduction, and resulting bladder cancer risk reduction. Uncertainties in the estimates are characterized based on uncertainties in the occurrence model parameters, existing treatment types, treatment removal efficiencies, costs, and the bladder cancer dose-response function for arsenic.

  5. Cost estimation of CO2 removal in HYSYS

    OpenAIRE

    Kallevik, Ove Braut

    2010-01-01

    A Hysys simulation of a CO2 capture process by absorption in a monoethanol amine (MEA) solution from the flue gas from a 500 MW natural gas power plant has been developed as a verification of earlier simulations at TUC. The major improvements in this work are new calculation methods for make-up water and MEA and simulation of a direct contact cooler (DCC) unit. For cost estimation purposes, calculations of overall heat transfer coefficient and correction factor for heat exchan...

  6. Cost estimate for a proposed GDF Suez LNG testing program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanchat, Thomas K.; Brady, Patrick Dennis; Jernigan, Dann A.; Luketa, Anay Josephine; Nissen, Mark R.; Lopez, Carlos; Vermillion, Nancy; Hightower, Marion Michael

    2014-02-01

    At the request of GDF Suez, a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate was prepared for the design, construction, testing, and data analysis for an experimental series of large-scale (Liquefied Natural Gas) LNG spills on land and water that would result in the largest pool fires and vapor dispersion events ever conducted. Due to the expected cost of this large, multi-year program, the authors utilized Sandia's structured cost estimating methodology. This methodology insures that the efforts identified can be performed for the cost proposed at a plus or minus 30 percent confidence. The scale of the LNG spill, fire, and vapor dispersion tests proposed by GDF could produce hazard distances and testing safety issues that need to be fully explored. Based on our evaluations, Sandia can utilize much of our existing fire testing infrastructure for the large fire tests and some small dispersion tests (with some modifications) in Albuquerque, but we propose to develop a new dispersion testing site at our remote test area in Nevada because of the large hazard distances. While this might impact some testing logistics, the safety aspects warrant this approach. In addition, we have included a proposal to study cryogenic liquid spills on water and subsequent vaporization in the presence of waves. Sandia is working with DOE on applications that provide infrastructure pertinent to wave production. We present an approach to conduct repeatable wave/spill interaction testing that could utilize such infrastructure.

  7. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

  8. A case-based reasoning approach for estimating the costs of pump station projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed M. Marzouk

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The effective estimation of costs is crucial to the success of construction projects. Cost estimates are used to evaluate, approve and/or fund projects. Organizations use some form of classification system to identify the various types of estimates that may be prepared during the lifecycle of a project. This research presents a parametric-cost model for pump station projects. Fourteen factors have been identified as important to the influence of the cost of pump station projects. A data set that consists of forty-four pump station projects (fifteen water and twenty-nine waste water are collected to build a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR library and to test its performance. The results obtained from the CBR tool are processed and adopted to improve the accuracy of the results. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the development of the effectiveness of the tool.

  9. Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model – A User’s Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrow, William R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Shehabi, Arman [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah Josephine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model is a cost-performance techno-economic model that estimates total large-scale manufacturing costs for necessary to produce a given product. It is designed to provide production cost estimates for technology researchers to help guide technology research and development towards an eventual cost-effective product. The model presented in this user’s guide is generic and can be tailored to the manufacturing of any product, including the generation of electricity (as a product). This flexibility, however, requires the user to develop the processes and process efficiencies that represents a full-scale manufacturing facility. The generic model is comprised of several modules that estimate variable costs (material, labor, and operating), fixed costs (capital & maintenance), financing structures (debt and equity financing), and tax implications (taxable income after equipment and building depreciation, debt interest payments, and expenses) of a notional manufacturing plant. A cash-flow method is used to estimate a selling price necessary for the manufacturing plant to recover its total cost of production. A levelized unit sales price ($ per unit of product) is determined by dividing the net-present value of the manufacturing plant’s expenses ($) by the net present value of its product output. A user defined production schedule drives the cash-flow method that determines the levelized unit price. In addition, an analyst can increase the levelized unit price to include a gross profit margin to estimate a product sales price. This model allows an analyst to understand the effect that any input variables could have on the cost of manufacturing a product. In addition, the tool is able to perform sensitivity analysis, which can be used to identify the key variables and assumptions that have the greatest influence on the levelized costs. This component is intended to help technology researchers focus their research attention on tasks

  10. Estimation of Reliability and Cost Relationship for Architecture-based Software

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hui Guan; Wei-Ru Chen; Ning Huang; Hong-Ji Yang

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new method to estimate the relationship between software reliability and software development cost taking into account the complexity for developing the software system and the size of software intended to develop during the implementation phase of the software development life cycle. On the basis of estimated relationship, a set of empirical data has been used to validate the correctness of the proposed model by comparing the result with the other existing models. The outcome of this work shows that the method proposed here is a relatively straightforward one in formulating the relationship between reliability and cost during implementation phase.

  11. 76 FR 80941 - Request for Connect America Fund Cost Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-27

    ... estimating the costs of providing service over a shared network to all households, businesses and community... that service territory. The Commission also intends to use the forward- looking cost model to identify... scope associated with providing services over a shared network, thereby reducing the per-location...

  12. COST MODEL FOR LARGE URBAN SCHOOLS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'BRIEN, RICHARD J.

    THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS A COST SUBMODEL OF AN URBAN EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM. THIS MODEL REQUIRES THAT PUPIL POPULATION AND PROPOSED SCHOOL BUILDING ARE KNOWN. THE COST ELEMENTS ARE--(1) CONSTRUCTION COSTS OF NEW PLANTS, (2) ACQUISITION AND DEVELOPMENT COSTS OF BUILDING SITES, (3) CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES OF THE PROPOSED SCHOOL, (4) PUPIL…

  13. Program Demand Cost Model for Alaskan Schools. 6th Edition. Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaska State Dept. of Education, Juneau.

    The Program Demand Cost Model for Alaskan Schools (Cost Model) is a tool for use by school districts and their consultants in estimating school construction costs in the planning phase of a project. This document sets out the sixth edition of the demand-cost model, a rewrite of the whole system. The model can be used to establish a complete budget…

  14. Estimated costs of treatment of benign prostate hyperplasia in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haylton J. Suaid

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The treatment of benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH presents 2 options: medical or surgical, and there are doubts about what is the best treatment since 80% of patients who undergo surgery become asymptomatic and 10 to 40% of those under medical regimen undergo surgery within a 5 years period. It is difficult to assess the actual costs of treating BPH in Brazil due to several factors, among them regional particularities and the scarcity of current statistical data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Recently, in the Ribeirão Preto area, São Paulo, Brazil, the IPSS (International Prostatic Symptoms Score and quality of life were verified in 934 volunteers. It was determined the percentage of individuals with ages ranging from 40 to 79 years with moderate symptoms (score 8-19 and with severe symptoms (score 20-35, values for which are indicated medical and surgical treatment, respectively, according to the Brazilian Society of Urology consensus on BPH. Data on Brazilian population in that age range were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics referent to the year of 2000. It was determined the number of patients, according to the criteria above, subjected to either one of the treatments mentioned. Surgical costs of prostate transurethral resection were researched according to Unified Health System - SUS tables (US$ 173 and of Brazilian Medical Society - AMB with a mean cost in 3 hospitals of US$ 933. Drug costs were calculated by the annual mean price (US$ 355 of 4 alpha-blockers (tamsulosin, alfuzosin, doxazosin and terazosin. RESULTS: The estimated population for medical treatment was 5,397,321 individuals, with a cost corresponding to US$ 1,916,489,055.00. The estimated population for surgical treatment was 2,040,299 men, what would represent a cost of US$ 353,291,204.00 based on the SUS table and of US$ 1,904,279,066.00 based on AMB with hospital expenses included. CONCLUSION: All theses facts induce us to predict

  15. Mode choice model parameters estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Strnad, Irena

    2010-01-01

    The present work focuses on parameter estimation of two mode choice models: multinomial logit and EVA 2 model, where four different modes and five different trip purposes are taken into account. Mode choice model discusses the behavioral aspect of mode choice making and enables its application to a traffic model. Mode choice model includes mode choice affecting trip factors by using each mode and their relative importance to choice made. When trip factor values are known, it...

  16. Global cost of child survival: estimates from country-level validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ekdom, Liselore; Scherpbier, Robert W; Niessen, Louis W

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Objective To cross-validate the global cost of scaling up child survival interventions to achieve the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG4) as estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2007 by using the latest country-provided data and new assumptions. Methods After the main cost categories for each country were identified, validation questionnaires were sent to 32 countries with high child mortality. Publicly available estimates for disease incidence, intervention coverage, prices and resources for individual-level and programme-level activities were validated against local data. Nine updates to the 2007 WHO model were generated using revised assumptions. Finally, estimates were extrapolated to 75 countries and combined with cost estimates for immunization and malaria programmes and for programmes for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Findings Twenty-six countries responded. Adjustments were largest for system- and programme-level data and smallest for patient data. Country-level validation caused a 53% increase in original cost estimates (i.e. 9 billion 2004 United States dollars [US$]) for 26 countries owing to revised system and programme assumptions, especially surrounding community health worker costs. The additional effect of updated population figures was small; updated epidemiologic figures increased costs by US$ 4 billion (+15%). New unit prices in the 26 countries that provided data increased estimates by US$ 4.3 billion (+16%). Extrapolation to 75 countries increased the original price estimate by US$ 33 billion (+80%) for 2010–2015. Conclusion Country-level validation had a significant effect on the cost estimate. Price adaptations and programme-related assumptions contributed substantially. An additional 74 billion US$ 2005 (representing a 12% increase in total health expenditure) would be needed between 2010 and 2015. Given resource constraints, countries will need to

  17. IVF cycle cost estimation using Activity Based Costing and Monte Carlo simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassettari, Lucia; Mosca, Marco; Mosca, Roberto; Rolando, Fabio; Costa, Mauro; Pisaturo, Valerio

    2016-03-01

    The Authors present a new methodological approach in stochastic regime to determine the actual costs of an healthcare process. The paper specifically shows the application of the methodology for the determination of the cost of an Assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment in Italy. The reason of this research comes from the fact that deterministic regime is inadequate to implement an accurate estimate of the cost of this particular treatment. In fact the durations of the different activities involved are unfixed and described by means of frequency distributions. Hence the need to determine in addition to the mean value of the cost, the interval within which it is intended to vary with a known confidence level. Consequently the cost obtained for each type of cycle investigated (in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer with or without intracytoplasmic sperm injection), shows tolerance intervals around the mean value sufficiently restricted as to make the data obtained statistically robust and therefore usable also as reference for any benchmark with other Countries. It should be noted that under a methodological point of view the approach was rigorous. In fact it was used both the technique of Activity Based Costing for determining the cost of individual activities of the process both the Monte Carlo simulation, with control of experimental error, for the construction of the tolerance intervals on the final result.

  18. Treatment Cost Analysis Tool (TCAT) for estimating costs of outpatient treatment services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Patrick M; Broome, Kirk M; Beaston-Blaakman, Aaron; Knight, Danica K; Horgan, Constance M; Shepard, Donald S

    2009-02-01

    A Microsoft Excel-based workbook designed for research analysts to use in a national study was retooled for treatment program directors and financial officers to allocate, analyze, and estimate outpatient treatment costs in the U.S. This instrument can also be used as a planning and management tool to optimize resources and forecast the impact of future changes in staffing, client flow, program design, and other resources. The Treatment Cost Analysis Tool (TCAT) automatically provides feedback and generates summaries and charts using comparative data from a national sample of non-methadone outpatient providers. TCAT is being used by program staff to capture and allocate both economic and accounting costs, and outpatient service costs are reported for a sample of 70 programs. Costs for an episode of treatment in regular, intensive, and mixed types of outpatient treatment were $882, $1310, and $1381 respectively (based on 20% trimmed means and 2006 dollars). An hour of counseling cost $64 in regular, $85 intensive, and $86 mixed. Group counseling hourly costs per client were $8, $11, and $10 respectively for regular, intensive, and mixed. Future directions include use of a web-based interview version, much like some of the commercially available tax preparation software tools, and extensions for use in other modalities of treatment.

  19. New Approaches in Usable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Lean NPD practices (many) • Lean Production & Operations Practices (many) • Supply Chain Operations Reference ( SCOR ) Model , Best Practices Make Deliver...NEW APPROACHES IN REUSABLE BOOSTER SYSTEM LIFE CYCLE COST MODELING Edgar Zapata National Aeronautics and Space Administration Kennedy Space Center...Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC

  20. Estimation of cost function in the natural gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-02-01

    The natural gas industry in Korea has characteristics of a dual industrial structure with wholesale and retail and a regional monopoly of city gas company. Recently there have been discussions on the restructuring of gas industry and the problems arising from such industrial organization. At this point, the labor and capital cost of KOGAS were analyzed to find out efficiency of KOGAS, the wholesaler and the cost function focusing on distribution was estimated to find out effect of scale of city gas company, the retailer. As a result, in the case of KOGAS, it is prove that enhancing competitive power is needed by improving labor productivity through stabilization of labor structure and by maximizing value-added through stability of capital combination. From the estimation of cost function of city gas companies, the existing regional monopoly of city gas company have effects on its scale only when the area of operation and end users used the same amount per end user are increased. (author). 31 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  1. Cost Models: A Study in Persuasion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauley, Franz E.

    1975-01-01

    The article defines the major elements (fundamental questions, basic assumptions, anticipated costs, projected savings, and return on investment) of a cost model, discusses the function and importance of each of these elements, and illustrates the development and construction of a cost model through an analysis of a hypothetical speed reading…

  2. Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, Resit

    1989-01-01

    Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

  3. Multivariable parametric cost model for space and ground telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd

    2016-09-01

    Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper hypothesizes a single model, based on published models and engineering intuition, for both ground and space telescopes: OTA Cost (X) D (1.75 +/- 0.05) λ (-0.5 +/- 0.25) T-0.25 e (-0.04) Y Specific findings include: space telescopes cost 50X to 100X more ground telescopes; diameter is the most important CER; cost is reduced by approximately 50% every 20 years (presumably because of technology advance and process improvements); and, for space telescopes, cost associated with wavelength performance is balanced by cost associated with operating temperature. Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems (i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly (presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).

  4. 7 CFR Exhibit A to Subpart A of... - Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments A Exhibit A to Subpart A of Part 1924 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of... A of Part 1924—Estimated Breakdown of Dwelling Costs for Estimating Partial Payments With slab...

  5. Architects and Design-Phase Cost Estimates: Design Professionals Should Reconsider the Value of Third-Party Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coakley, John

    2010-01-01

    Professional cost estimators are widely used by architects during the design phases of a project to provide preliminary cost estimates. These estimates may begin at the conceptual design phase and are prepared at regular intervals through the construction document phase. Estimating professionals are frequently tasked with "selling" the importance…

  6. USER STORY SOFTWARE ESTIMATION:A SIMPLIFICATION OF SOFTWARE ESTIMATION MODEL WITH DISTRIBUTED EXTREME PROGRAMMING ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE

    OpenAIRE

    Ridi Ferdiana; Paulus Insap Santoso; Lukito Edi Nugroho; Ahmad Ashari

    2011-01-01

    Software estimation is an area of software engineering concerned with the identification, classification and measurement of features of software that affect the cost of developing and sustaining computer programs [19]. Measuring the software through software estimation has purpose to know the complexity of the software, estimate the human resources, and get better visibility of execution and process model. There is a lot of software estimation that work sufficiently in certain conditions or s...

  7. Application of Korean Specific Data to Economic Cost Estimation by KOSCA-MACCS2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Default values for various data provided by MACCS2(MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System Version 2) such as population, weather, food, and economic cost are far from current domestic condition. In the case of economic cost data, related default values came from MACCS and WASH-1400. KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been developed a Korean-specific level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) code package based on MACCS2 to reflect domestic condition for off-site consequence analysis. To this end, we performed a study on the domestic specific technical issues for level 3 PSA, which are a dose conversion factor, food chain model, atmospheric dispersion model, and domestic-specific economic effect model. Based on the study, we developed a level 3 PSA code, so-called KOSCAMACCS2 (Korean-specific Off-Site Consequence Analysis based on MACCS2). The purpose of this paper is to introduce economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and application of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation with KOSCA-MACCS2. In this paper, we introduced economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and suggested the application plan of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation. To this end, we considered data sources for those economic cost variables to reflect Korea-specific features such as data by Statistics Korea or Bank of Korea etc. For the decontamination related variables, we applied foreign literatures to apply data, which are Extern-E and UNESCO Chernobyl Forum data. Based on the data resources we estimated data for input variables related to economic cost estimation.

  8. 48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award Fee... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost, base fee...

  9. 48 CFR 1852.216-84 - Estimated cost and incentive fee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost and... Provisions and Clauses 1852.216-84 Estimated cost and incentive fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(d), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Incentive Fee (OCT 1996) The target cost of this contract...

  10. Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comstock, Douglas A.; Van Wychen, Kristin; Zimmerman, Mary Beth

    2015-01-01

    Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

  11. Process Cost Modeling for Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Han P.; Freeman, William (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to

  12. A comparison of NEAR actual spacecraft costs with three parametric cost models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, Todd J.; Lao, Norman Y.; Davalos, Evelyn T.; Bearden, David A.

    1999-11-01

    Costs for modern (post-1990) U.S.-built small planetary spacecraft have been shown to exhibit significantly different trends from those of larger spacecraft. These differences cannot be accounted for simply by the change in size alone. Some have attributed this departure to NASA's "faster, better, cheaper" design approach embodied by the efficiency of smaller teams, reduced government oversight, increased focus on cost, and short development periods. With the Discovery, Mars Surveyor and New Millennium programs representing the new approach to planetary exploration, it is important to understand these current cost trends and to be able to estimate costs of future proposed missions. To address this issue, The Aerospace Corporation (hereafter referred to as Aerospace) performed a study to compare the actual costs of the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) spacecraft bus (instruments were not estimated) using three different cost models; the U.S. Air Force Unmanned Spacecraft Cost Model, Version 7 (USCM-7), the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) NASA/Air Force Cost Model 1996 (NAFCOM96) and The Aerospace Corporation's Small Satellite Cost Model 1998 (SSCM98). The NEAR spacecraft was chosen for comparison because it was the first Discovery mission launched, and recently recognized with a Laurel award by Aviation Week and Space Technology as a benchmark for NASA's Discovery program [North, 1997]. It was also selected because the cost data has been released into the public domain [Hemmings, 1996]which makes it easy to discuss in a public forum. This paper summarizes the NEAR program, provides a short synopsis of each of the three cost models, and demonstrates how they were applied for this study.

  13. The Role of Inflation and Price Escalation Adjustments in Properly Estimating Program Costs: F-35 Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    Model Estimates for All F-35 Variants Weight growth in all F-35 variants was a driver of cost growth between MS B paper designs and the current ...reflecting updated weight and commonality are in line with cost growth through the Aircraft Weight Growth row. Not accounted for in this application of the...Estimating Program Costs : F-35 Case Study Stanley Horowitz, Assistant Division Director, Institute for Defense Analyses Bruce Harmon, Research Staff Member

  14. Estimating the cost of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldie Sue J

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs can provide useful information to policymakers concerned with the broad allocation of resources as well as to local decision makers choosing between different options for reducing the burden from a single disease. For the latter, it is important to use country-specific data when possible and to represent cost differences between countries that might make one strategy more or less attractive than another strategy locally. As part of a CEA of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries, we supplemented limited primary cost data by developing other estimation techniques for direct medical and non-medical costs associated with alternative screening approaches using one of three initial screening tests: simple visual screening, HPV DNA testing, and cervical cytology. Here, we report estimation methods and results for three cost areas in which data were lacking. Methods To supplement direct medical costs, including staff, supplies, and equipment depreciation using country-specific data, we used alternative techniques to quantify cervical cytology and HPV DNA laboratory sample processing costs. We used a detailed quantity and price approach whose face validity was compared to an adaptation of a US laboratory estimation methodology. This methodology was also used to project annual sample processing capacities for each laboratory type. The cost of sample transport from the clinic to the laboratory was estimated using spatial models. A plausible range of the cost of patient time spent seeking and receiving screening was estimated using only formal sector employment and wages as well as using both formal and informal sector participation and country-specific minimum wages. Data sources included primary data from country-specific studies, international databases, international prices, and expert opinion. Costs were standardized to year 2000 international dollars using inflation adjustment and

  15. A national hypertension treatment program in Germany and its estimated impact on costs, life expectancy, and cost-effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandjour, Afschin; Stock, Stephanie

    2007-10-01

    Almost 15 million Germans may suffer from untreated hypertension. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a national hypertension treatment program compared to no program. A Markov decision model from the perspective of the statutory health insurance (SHI) was built. All data were taken from secondary sources. The target population consists of hypertensive male and female patients at high or low risk for cardiovascular events at different age groups (40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years). The analysis shows fairly moderate cost-effectiveness ratios even for low-risk groups (less than 12,000 euros per life year gained). In women at high risk antihypertensive treatment even leads to savings. This suggests that a national hypertension treatment program provides good value for money. Given the considerable costs of the program itself, any savings from avoiding long-term consequences of hypertension are likely to be offset, however.

  16. Early cost estimating for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Mahamid

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop early cost estimating models for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques, based on 131 sets of data collected in the West Bank in Palestine. As the cost estimates are required at early stages of a project, considerations were given to the fact that the input data for the required regression model could be easily extracted from sketches or scope definition of the project. 11 regression models are developed to estimate the total cost of road construction project in US dollar; 5 of them include bid quantities as input variables and 6 include road length and road width. The coefficient of determination r2 for the developed models is ranging from 0.92 to 0.98 which indicate that the predicted values from a forecast models fit with the real-life data. The values of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of the developed regression models are ranging from 13% to 31%, the results compare favorably with past researches which have shown that the estimate accuracy in the early stages of a project is between ±25% and ±50%.

  17. Cost estimates of operating onsite spent fuel pools after final reactor shutdown

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rod, S R

    1991-08-01

    This report presents estimates of the annual costs of operating spent fuel pools at nuclear power stations after the final shutdown of one or more onsite reactors. Its purpose is to provide basic spent fuel storage cost information for use in evaluating DOE's reference nuclear waste management system, as well as alternate systems. The basic model of an independent spent fuel storage installation (ISFSI) used in this study was based on General Electric Corporation's Morris Operation and was modified to reflect mean storage capabilities at an unspecified, or generic,'' US reactor site. Cost data for the model came from several sources, including both operating and shutdown nuclear power stations and existing ISFSIs. Duke Power Company has estimated ISFSI costs based on existing spent fuel storage costs at its nuclear power stations. Similarly, nuclear material handling facilities such as the Morris Operation, the West Valley Demonstration Project, and the retired Humbolt Bay nuclear power station have compiled spent fuel storage cost data based on years of operating experience. Consideration was given to the following factors that would cause operating costs to vary among pools: (1) The number of spent fuel pools at a given reactor site; (2) the number of operating and shutdown reactors onsite; (3) geographic location; and (4) pool storage capacity. 10 ref., 6 figs., 7 tabs.

  18. Estimation of Social Benefits in Cost-benefit Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Beáta Fodor

    2012-01-01

    While examining the cost-benefit analysis related to public policy decisions in the Hungarian and international literature, this paper is looking for the answer to the question of what the methodological principles are according to which the benefit impacts can be determined. The processed Hungarian and English-language studies indicate that the theoretical-methodological questions of the determination of benefit impacts are not clear cut. The author has constructed a model that contains the ...

  19. An estimate of the cost of administering intravenous biological agents in Spanish day hospitals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolla, Joan Miquel; Martín, Esperanza; Llamas, Pilar; Manero, Javier; Rodríguez de la Serna, Arturo; Fernández-Miera, Manuel Francisco; Rodríguez, Mercedes; López, José Manuel; Ivanova, Alexandra; Aragón, Belén

    2017-01-01

    Objective To estimate the unit costs of administering intravenous (IV) biological agents in day hospitals (DHs) in the Spanish National Health System. Patients and methods Data were obtained from 188 patients with rheumatoid arthritis, collected from nine DHs, receiving one of the following IV therapies: infliximab (n=48), rituximab (n=38), abatacept (n=41), or tocilizumab (n=61). The fieldwork was carried out between March 2013 and March 2014. The following three groups of costs were considered: 1) structural costs, 2) material costs, and 3) staff costs. Staff costs were considered a fixed cost and were estimated according to the DH theoretical level of activity, which includes, as well as personal care of each patient, the DH general activities (complete imputation method, CIM). In addition, an alternative calculation was performed, in which the staff costs were considered a variable cost imputed according to the time spent on direct care (partial imputation method, PIM). All costs were expressed in euros for the reference year 2014. Results The average total cost was €146.12 per infusion (standard deviation [SD] ±87.11; CIM) and €29.70 per infusion (SD ±11.42; PIM). The structure-related costs per infusion varied between €2.23 and €62.35 per patient and DH; the cost of consumables oscillated between €3.48 and €20.34 per patient and DH. In terms of the care process, the average difference between the shortest and the longest time taken by different hospitals to administer an IV biological therapy was 113 minutes. Conclusion The average total cost of infusion was less than that normally used in models of economic evaluation coming from secondary sources. This cost is even less when the staff costs are imputed according to the PIM. A high degree of variability was observed between different DHs in the cost of the consumables, in the structure-related costs, and in those of the care process. PMID:28356746

  20. Modelling the Costs of Preserving Digital Assets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2012-01-01

    on experiences from a Danish project to develop a cost model. It was found that a generic cost model should account for the nature of the organisation and the assets to be preserved, and for all major preservation activities and cost drivers. In addition, it should describe accounting principles. It was proposed......Information is increasingly being produced in digital form, and some of it must be preserved for the longterm. Digital preservation includes a series of actively managed activities that require on-going funding. To obtain sufficient resources, there is a need for assessing the costs...... and the benefits accrued by preserving the assets. Cost data is also needed for optimizing activities and comparing the costs of different preservation alternatives. The purpose of this study is to analyse generic requirements for modelling the cost of preserving digital assets. The analysis was based...

  1. Modelling the Costs of Preserving Digital Assets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex

    2012-01-01

    and the benefits accrued by preserving the assets. Cost data is also needed for optimizing activities and comparing the costs of different preservation alternatives. The purpose of this study is to analyse generic requirements for modelling the cost of preserving digital assets. The analysis was based......Information is increasingly being produced in digital form, and some of it must be preserved for the longterm. Digital preservation includes a series of actively managed activities that require on-going funding. To obtain sufficient resources, there is a need for assessing the costs...... on experiences from a Danish project to develop a cost model. It was found that a generic cost model should account for the nature of the organisation and the assets to be preserved, and for all major preservation activities and cost drivers. In addition, it should describe accounting principles. It was proposed...

  2. Econometric estimation of investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms using hyperbolic distance functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Arne; Fabricius, Ole; Olsen, Jakob Vesterlund

    2014-01-01

    Based on a theoretical microeconomic model, we econometrically estimate investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms based on a large unbalanced panel dataset. As our theoretical model indicates that adjustment costs are caused both by increased inputs...

  3. Cost Concept Model and Gateway Specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2014-01-01

    to promote interoperability; • A Nested Model for Digital Curation—that visualises the core concepts, demonstrates how they interact and places them into context visually by linking them to A Cost and Benefit Model for Curation; This Framework provides guidance for data collection and associated calculations......This document introduces a Framework supporting the implementation of a cost concept model against which current and future cost models for curating digital assets can be benchmarked. The value built into this cost concept model leverages the comprehensive engagement by the 4C project with various...... user communities and builds upon our understanding of the requirements, drivers, obstacles and objectives that various stakeholder groups have relating to digital curation. Ultimately, this concept model should provide a critical input to the development and refinement of cost models as well as helping...

  4. SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL MANUFACTURING COST MODEL: SIMULATING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PERFORMANCE, MANUFACTURING, AND COST OF PRODUCTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eric J. Carlson; Yong Yang; Chandler Fulton

    2004-04-20

    The successful commercialization of fuel cells will depend on the achievement of competitive system costs and efficiencies. System cost directly impacts the capital equipment component of cost of electricity (COE) and is a major contributor to the O and M component. The replacement costs for equipment (also heavily influenced by stack life) is generally a major contributor to O and M costs. In this project, they worked with the SECA industrial teams to estimate the impact of general manufacturing issues of interest on stack cost using an activities-based cost model for anode-supported planar SOFC stacks with metallic interconnects. An earlier model developed for NETL for anode supported planar SOFCs was enhanced by a linkage to a performance/thermal/mechanical model, by addition of Quality Control steps to the process flow with specific characterization methods, and by assessment of economies of scale. The 3-dimensional adiabatic performance model was used to calculate the average power density for the assumed geometry and operating conditions (i.e., inlet and exhaust temperatures, utilization, and fuel composition) based on publicly available polarizations curves. The SECA team provided guidance on what manufacturing and design issues should be assessed in this Phase I demonstration of cost modeling capabilities. They considered the impact of the following parameters on yield and cost: layer thickness (i.e., anode, electrolyte, and cathode) on cost and stress levels, statistical nature of ceramic material failure on yield, and Quality Control steps and strategies. In this demonstration of the capabilities of the linked model, only the active stack (i.e., anode, electrolyte, and cathode) and interconnect materials were included in the analysis. Factory costs are presented on an area and kilowatt basis to allow developers to extrapolate to their level of performance, stack design, materials, seal and system configurations, and internal corporate overheads and margin

  5. Estimation of Hospital Costs for Colorectal Cancer Care for Nova Scotia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian D O'Brien

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC is the second most common invasive cancer in Canada. Estimates of the costs of care allow estimation of the cost effectiveness of screening for premalignant and early disease.

  6. A Pragmatic Approach to Product Costing Based on Standard Time Estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIAO Yuan-yuan; HAN Wen-xiu; DU Jun

    2001-01-01

    The major drawbacks of traditional approaches to product costing include lack of manufacturing knowledge, reliance on the detailed design description, poor cost function approximation and inability to update estimation algorithms by using actual cost data. Adopting the Activity-Based Costing (ABC) concept and based on estimated processing time, this paper proposes a pragmatic approach to product costing. The approach involves two stages, namely the preparatory stage and the estimation stage. A case study conducted in a refrigerator company is reported.

  7. Modelling total energy costs of sports centres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boussabaine, A.H.; Kirkham, R.J.; Grew, R.J. [Liverpool Univ., School of Architecture and Building Engineering, Liverpool (United Kingdom)

    1999-12-07

    Providing and maintaining safe and comfortable conditions in sport centres raises many issues, particularly cost. The paper gives an overview of the factors associated with sport centre servicing and attempts to highlight the governing factors associated with this, particularly energy costs. A total of 19 sport centres in the City of Liverpool in the UK are investigated, using data elicited from the Liverpool Leisure Services Directorate. The energy operating costs were analysed using statistical methods. Six models were developed to predict total energy costs. Testing and validation results showed a high level of model accuracy. The models would be of use to professionals involved in feasibility studies at the design stage. (Author)

  8. EOQ Models with Varying Holding Cost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naser Ghasemi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Models of inventory management contain different parameters. An issue is observable in the classical models which can be related to the determination of the quantity of the economic order and the quantity of the economic production. In these models, the parameters like setup and holding costs and also the rate of demands are fixed. This matter causes the quantity of the economic ordering in classic model to have some differences in comparison with the real-world conditions. It should be stated that holding cost of spoiled and useless products is not always fixed and so the costs increase by passing the time. This paper is an attempt to develop classical EOQ models by considering holding cost as an increasing function of the ordering cycle length. So the classical EOQ models are developed, and the related optimum quantity to the ordering cycle length, economic ordering quantity, and the optimum total cost are determined.

  9. Cost Concept Model and Gateway Specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2014-01-01

    This document introduces a Framework supporting the implementation of a cost concept model against which current and future cost models for curating digital assets can be benchmarked. The value built into this cost concept model leverages the comprehensive engagement by the 4C project with various...... to ensure that the curation and preservation solutions and services that will inevitably arise from the commercial sector as ‘supply’ respond to a much better understood ‘demand’ for cost-effective and relevant tools. To meet acknowledged gaps in current provision, a nested model of curation which addresses...... user communities and builds upon our understanding of the requirements, drivers, obstacles and objectives that various stakeholder groups have relating to digital curation. Ultimately, this concept model should provide a critical input to the development and refinement of cost models as well as helping...

  10. Model adjointization and its cost

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG Qiang; ZHANG Linbo; WANG Bin

    2004-01-01

    In this article, the least program behavior decomposition method (LPBD) is put forward from a program structure point of view. This method can be extensively used both in algorithms of automatic differentiation (AD) and in tools design, and does not require programs to be evenly separable but the cost in terms of operations count and memory is similar to methods using checkpointing. This article starts by summarizing the rules of adjointization and then presents the implementation of LPBD. Next, the definition of the separable program space, based on the fundamental assumptions (FA) of automatic differentiation, is given and the differentiation cost functions are derived. Also,two constants of fundamental importance in AD, σ and μ, are derived under FA. Under the assumption of even separability, the adjoint cost of simple and deep decomposition is subsequently discussed quantitatively using checkpointing. Finally, the adjoint costs in terms of operations count and memory through the LPBD method are shown to be uniformly dependent on the depth of structure or decomposition.

  11. Cost estimation of HVDC transmission system of Bangka's NPP candidates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liun, Edwaren; Suparman

    2014-09-01

    Regarding nuclear power plant development in Bangka Island, it can be estimated that produced power will be oversupply for the Bangka Island and needs to transmit to Sumatra or Java Island. The distance between the regions or islands causing considerable loss of power in transmission by alternating current, and a wide range of technical and economical issues. The objective of this paper addresses to economics analysis of direct current transmission system to overcome those technical problem. Direct current transmission has a stable characteristic, so that the power delivery from Bangka to Sumatra or Java in a large scale efficiently and reliably can be done. HVDC system costs depend on the power capacity applied to the system and length of the transmission line in addition to other variables that may be different.

  12. Composite Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Estimating Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    production processes in the late 1930’s (Strong, 2008: 4). Since the 1930’s, research has led to the development of advanced, filamentary, and laminated ...on fiber placement machines in the production process. These precise systems can automate the building of laminates made of combinations of ply...a hindrance than beneficial. While this facet of using large scale components is intriguing, this research will not investigate the optimum usage

  13. A Phenomenological Cost Model for High Energy Particle Accelerators

    CERN Document Server

    Shiltsev, Vladimir

    2014-01-01

    Accelerator-based high-energy physics have been in the forefront of scientific discoveries for more than half a century. The accelerator technology of the colliders has progressed immensely, while the beam energy, luminosity, facility size, and cost have grown by several orders of magnitude. The method of colliding beams has not fully exhausted its potential but has slowed down considerably in its progress. In this paper we derive a simple scaling model for the cost of large accelerators and colliding beam facilities based on costs of 17 big facilities which have been either built or carefully estimated. Although this approach cannot replace an actual cost estimate based on an engineering design, this parameterization is to indicate a somewhat realistic cost range for consideration of what future frontier accelerator facilities might be fiscally realizable.

  14. Advanced Composite Cost Estimating Manual. Volume II. Appendix

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-08-01

    0~~~~~~; - -m- O1 .,a 0 j in N j "s w f 0 0 Av .s 00 4 164 "i’ 3. -%’ 1*4*J. - N w 0-uo 16 fo moNi o w w -Q * * 0 h" v 0 a rq)E 4.1 w 0 -0 S p4 4 4...REkMOVE CHAIS 0.00J32 06COC43 I I 34 OPIN LC-OR 0*01402 o.ci’r2 I 31 PELEA *. 1.L. L JAO4 000035 22 36 RILtLA5E VAC. LINES 0.0031 !I kfMOVF lPAIk Ptk OVL...0 - NO 1- YES Ia YES INSERTS: 0 - NO 1 - YES 59 a *1 ACCEM-S COST PROJECTION CAM I UNIT MNER~aJboo~ AVE , LOT SIZiTYPE OF ESTIMATE UNIT COST aL. 21

  15. Comparative cost estimates of five coal utilization processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-01

    Detailed capital and operating cost estimates were prepared for the generation of electric power in a new, net 500 MW (e), coal-burning facility by five alternative processes: conventional boiler with no control of SO/sub 2/ emissions, atmospheric fluidized bed steam generator (AFB), conventional boiler equipped with a limestone FGD system, conventional boiler equipped with magnesia FGD system, and coal beneficiation followed by a conventional boiler quipped with limestone FGD for part of the flue gas stream. For a coal containing 3.5% sulfur, meeting SO/sub 2/ emission limits of 1.2 pounds per million Btu fired was most economical with the limestone FGD system. This result was unchanged for a coal containing 5% sulfur; however, for 2% sulfur, limestone FGD and AFB were competitive methods of controlling SO/sub 2/ emissions. Brief consideration of 90% reduction of SO/sub 2/ emissions led to the choice of limestone FGD as the most economical method. Byproduct credit for the sulfuric acid produced in regenerating the magnesia could make that system competitive with the limestone FGD system, depending upon local markets. The cost of sludge fixation and disposal would make limestone FGD noneconomic in many situations, if these steps are necessary.

  16. Taking the Evolutionary Road to Developing an In-House Cost Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacintho, David; Esker, Lind; Herman, Frank; Lavaque, Rodolfo; Regardie, Myma

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the process and some of the problems and challenges of developing an In-House Cost Estimate (IHCE). Using as an example the Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment (SGSS) project, the presentation reviews the phases for developing a Cost estimate within the project to estimate government and contractor project costs to support a budget request.

  17. 40 CFR 144.62 - Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cost estimate for plugging and... Waste Injection Wells § 144.62 Cost estimate for plugging and abandonment. (a) The owner or operator must prepare a written estimate, in current dollars, of the cost of plugging the injection well...

  18. Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ball, J.R.

    1986-04-01

    This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided.

  19. Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMasi, Joseph A; Grabowski, Henry G; Hansen, Ronald W

    2016-05-01

    The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars).

  20. Estimating cost ratio distribution between fatal and non-fatal road accidents in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdan, Nurhidayah; Daud, Noorizam

    2014-07-01

    Road traffic crashes are a global major problem, and should be treated as a shared responsibility. In Malaysia, road accident tragedies kill 6,917 people and injure or disable 17,522 people in year 2012, and government spent about RM9.3 billion in 2009 which cost the nation approximately 1 to 2 percent loss of gross domestic product (GDP) reported annually. The current cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident used by Ministry of Works Malaysia simply based on arbitrary value of 6:4 or equivalent 1.5:1 depends on the fact that there are six factors involved in the calculation accident cost for fatal accident while four factors for non-fatal accident. The simple indication used by the authority to calculate the cost ratio is doubted since there is lack of mathematical and conceptual evidence to explain how this ratio is determined. The main aim of this study is to determine the new accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident in Malaysia based on quantitative statistical approach. The cost ratio distributions will be estimated based on Weibull distribution. Due to the unavailability of official accident cost data, insurance claim data both for fatal and non-fatal accident have been used as proxy information for the actual accident cost. There are two types of parameter estimates used in this study, which are maximum likelihood (MLE) and robust estimation. The findings of this study reveal that accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal claim when using MLE is 1.33, while, for robust estimates, the cost ratio is slightly higher which is 1.51. This study will help the authority to determine a more accurate cost ratio between fatal and non-fatal accident as compared to the official ratio set by the government, since cost ratio is an important element to be used as a weightage in modeling road accident related data. Therefore, this study provides some guidance tips to revise the insurance claim set by the Malaysia road authority, hence the appropriate method

  1. Cost Models for MMC Manufacturing Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elzey, Dana M.; Wadley, Haydn N. G.

    1996-01-01

    Processes for the manufacture of advanced metal matrix composites are rapidly approaching maturity in the research laboratory and there is growing interest in their transition to industrial production. However, research conducted to date has almost exclusively focused on overcoming the technical barriers to producing high-quality material and little attention has been given to the economical feasibility of these laboratory approaches and process cost issues. A quantitative cost modeling (QCM) approach was developed to address these issues. QCM are cost analysis tools based on predictive process models relating process conditions to the attributes of the final product. An important attribute, of the QCM approach is the ability to predict the sensitivity of material production costs to product quality and to quantitatively explore trade-offs between cost and quality. Applications of the cost models allow more efficient direction of future MMC process technology development and a more accurate assessment of MMC market potential. Cost models were developed for two state-of-the art metal matrix composite (MMC) manufacturing processes: tape casting and plasma spray deposition. Quality and Cost models are presented for both processes and the resulting predicted quality-cost curves are presented and discussed.

  2. The effect of construction cost estimating (CCE software on job performance: An improvement plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Mukelas M.F.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive statistical research on the effect of construction cost estimating software’s features towards estimating job performance. The objectives of this study are identification of cost estimating software features, analyzing the significant relation of cost estimating software’s features towards job performance, Explore the problem faced during the implementation and lastly propose a plan to improve the cost estimating software usage among contractors in Malaysia. The study statistically reveals four features of cost estimating software that significantly impact towards changes in cost estimating job performance. These features were refined by performing interview to focus group of respondent to observe the actual possible problems during the implementation. Eventually, the proposed improvement plan was validated by the focus group of respondents to enhance the cost estimating software implementation among contractors in Malaysia.

  3. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  4. Cost Modeling for SOC Modules Testing

    OpenAIRE

    Balwinder Singh; Arun Khosla; Sukhleen B. Narang

    2013-01-01

    The complexity of the system design is increasing very rapidly as the number of transistors on Integrated Circuits (IC) doubles as per Moore’s law.There is big challenge of testing this complex VLSI circuit, in which whole system is integrated into a single chip called System on Chip (SOC). Cost of testing the SOC is also increasing with complexity. Cost modeling plays a vital role in reduction of test cost and time to market. This paper includes the cost modeling of the SOC Module testing...

  5. Plural Governance: A Modified Transaction Cost Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mols, Niels Peter; Menard, Claude

    2014-01-01

    a model relating transaction cost and resource-based variables to the cost of the plural form. The model is then used to analyze when the plural form is efficient compared to alternative governance structures. We also use the model to discuss the strength of three plural form synergies.......Plural governance is a form of governance where a firm both makes and buys similar goods or services. Despite a widespread use of plural governance there are no transaction cost models of how plural governance affects performance. This paper reviews the literature about plural forms and proposes...

  6. A propensity score approach to estimating the cost-effectiveness of medical therapies from observational data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Nandita; Indurkhya, Alka

    2005-08-01

    Health summary measures are commonly used by policy makers to help make decisions on the allocation of societal resources for competing medical treatments. The net monetary benefit is a health summary measure that overcomes the statistical limitations of a popular measure namely, the cost-effectiveness ratio. We introduce a linear model framework to estimate propensity score adjusted net monetary benefit. This method provides less biased estimates in the presence of significant differences in baseline measures and demographic characteristics between treatment groups in quasi-randomized or observational studies. Simulation studies were conducted to better understand the utility of propensity score adjusted estimates of net monetary benefits when important covariates are unobserved. The results indicated that the propensity score adjusted net monetary benefit provides a robust measure of cost-effectiveness in the presence of hidden bias. The methods are illustrated using data from SEER-Medicare for the treatment of bladder cancer.

  7. USER STORY SOFTWARE ESTIMATION:A SIMPLIFICATION OF SOFTWARE ESTIMATION MODEL WITH DISTRIBUTED EXTREME PROGRAMMING ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ridi Ferdiana

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Software estimation is an area of software engineering concerned with the identification, classification and measurement of features of software that affect the cost of developing and sustaining computer programs [19]. Measuring the software through software estimation has purpose to know the complexity of the software, estimate the human resources, and get better visibility of execution and process model. There is a lot of software estimation that work sufficiently in certain conditions or step in software engineering for example measuring line of codes, function point, COCOMO, or use case points. This paper proposes another estimation technique called Distributed eXtreme Programming Estimation (DXP Estimation. DXP estimation provides a basic technique for the team that using eXtreme Programming method in onsite or distributed development. According to writer knowledge this is a first estimation technique that applied into agile method in eXtreme Programming.

  8. Energetic costs of mange in wolves estimated from infrared thermography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Paul C.; Almberg, Emily S.; Haase, Catherine G; Hudson, Peter J.; Maloney, Shane K; Metz, Matthew C; Munn, Adam J; Nugent, Paul; Putzeys, Olivier; Stahler, Daniel R.; Stewart, Anya C; Smith, Doug W.

    2016-01-01

    Parasites, by definition, extract energy from their hosts and thus affect trophic and food web dynamics even when the parasite may have limited effects on host population size. We studied the energetic costs of mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) in wolves (Canis lupus) using thermal cameras to estimate heat losses associated with compromised insulation during the winter. We combined the field data of known, naturally infected wolves with data set on captive wolves with shaved patches of fur as a positive control to simulate mange-induced hair loss. We predict that during the winter in Montana, more severe mange infection increases heat loss by around 5.2 to 12 MJ per night (1240 to 2850 kcal, or a 65% to 78% increase) for small and large wolves, respectively accounting for wind effects. To maintain body temperature would require a significant proportion of a healthy wolf's total daily energy demands (18-22 MJ/day). We also predict how these thermal costs may increase in colder climates by comparing our predictions in Bozeman, Montana to those from a place with lower ambient temperatures (Fairbanks, Alaska). Contrary to our expectations, the 14°C differential between these regions was not as important as the potential differences in wind speed. These large increases in energetic demands can be mitigated by either increasing consumption rates or decreasing other energy demands. Data from GPS-collared wolves indicated that healthy wolves move, on average, 17 km per day, which was reduced by 1.5, 1.8 and 6.5 km for light, medium, and severe hair loss. In addition, the wolf with the most hair loss was less active at night and more active during the day, which is the converse of the movement patterns of healthy wolves. At the individual level mange infections create significant energy demands and altered behavioral patterns, this may have cascading effects on prey consumption rates, food web dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and scavenger communities.

  9. Uncertainties in early-stage capital cost estimation of process design – a case study on biorefinery design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist; Sin, Gürkan

    2015-01-01

    is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is indeed found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable......Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which......) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage cost estimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design...

  10. Optimal replacement time estimation for machines and equipment based on cost function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Šebo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with a multidisciplinary issue of estimating the optimal replacement time for the machines. Considered categories of machines, for which the optimization method is usable, are of the metallurgical and engineering production. Different models of cost function are considered (both with one and two variables. Parameters of the models were calculated through the least squares method. Models testing show that all are good enough, so for estimation of optimal replacement time is sufficient to use simpler models. In addition to the testing of models we developed the method (tested on selected simple model which enable us in actual real time (with limited data set to indicate the optimal replacement time. The indicated time moment is close enough to the optimal replacement time t*.

  11. Breckinridge Project, initial effort. Report IX. Operating cost estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1982-01-01

    Operating costs are normally broken into three major categories: variable costs including raw materials, annual catalyst and chemicals, and utilities; semi-variable costs including labor and labor related cost; and fixed or capital related charges. The raw materials and utilities costs are proportional to production; however, a small component of utilities cost is independent of production. The catalyst and chemicals costs are also normally proportional to production. Semi-variable costs include direct labor, maintenance labor, labor supervision, contract maintenance, maintenance materials, payroll overheads, operation supplies, and general overhead and administration. Fixed costs include local taxes, insurance and the time value of the capital investment. The latter charge often includes the investor's anticipated return on investment. In determining operating costs for financial analysis, return on investment (ROI) and depreciation are not treated as cash operating costs. These costs are developed in the financial analysis; the annual operating cost determined here omits ROI and depreciation. Project Annual Operating Costs are summarized in Table 1. Detailed supporting information for the cost elements listed below is included in the following sections: Electrical, catalyst and chemicals, and salaries and wages.

  12. A fuzzy neural network to estimate at completion costs of construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morteza Bagherpour

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In construction cost management system, normally earned value management (EVM is applied as an efficient control approach in both status detection and estimation at completion (EAC cost forecasting. The traditional approaches in EAC predictions normally extend the current situation of a project to the future by employing pervious performance factor. The proposed approach of this paper considers both qualitative and quantitative factors affecting the EAC prediction. The proposed approach of this research not only estimates the completion of the project, but also it can generate accurate forecast for the entire future periods using a fuzzy neural network model. The model is also implemented for a real-world case study and yields encouraging preliminary results.

  13. Cost and Performance Model for Photovoltaic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borden, C. S.; Smith, J. H.; Davisson, M. C.; Reiter, L. J.

    1986-01-01

    Lifetime cost and performance (LCP) model assists in assessment of design options for photovoltaic systems. LCP is simulation of performance, cost, and revenue streams associated with photovoltaic power systems connected to electric-utility grid. LCP provides user with substantial flexibility in specifying technical and economic environment of application.

  14. SCGE modelling in cost-benefit analysis: the Dutch experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopmans, C.; Oosterhaven, J.

    2011-01-01

    Spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models offer opportunities for computing wider economic effects in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in a theoretically satisfactory way. This is important for the correct estimation of additional economic benefits and international relocation impacts. In the

  15. An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirko Guerrieri

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy. In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

  16. Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

    2015-08-01

    The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis

  17. DRUG ADDICTION SOCIAL COST IN RUSSIA REGIONS: METHODICAL APPROACH AND ESTIMATION RESULTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Kalina

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The methodical approach to drug addiction social cost estimation in Russian regions is suggested in the article. It is presented by cost estimation of socio-economical consequences of drug addiction spread on the territory. The main approaches to latency characteristics of drug addiction situation estimation are shown. The results of drug addiction and its separate parts social cost estimation are given for federal regions and subjects of Russian Federation for the period of 2001 − 2005.

  18. Different approaches to estimating transition costs in the electric- utility industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baxter, L.W.

    1995-10-01

    The term ``transition costs`` describes the potential revenue shortfall (or welfare loss) a utility (or other actor) may experience through government-initiated deregulation of electricity generation. The potential for transition costs arises whenever a regulated industry is subject to competitive market forces as a result of explicit government action. Federal and state proposals to deregulate electricity generation sparked a national debate on transition costs in the electric-utility industry. Industry-wide transition cost estimates range from about $20 billion to $500 billion. Such disparate estimates raise important questions on estimation methods for decision makers. This report examines different approaches to estimating transition costs. The study has three objectives. First, we discuss the concept of transition cost. Second, we identify the major cost categories included in transition cost estimates and summarize the current debate on which specific costs are appropriately included in these estimates. Finally, we identify general and specific estimation approaches and assess their strengths and weaknesses. We relied primarily on the evidentiary records established at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the California Public Utilities Commission to identify major cost categories and specific estimation approaches. We also contacted regulatory commission staffs in ten states to ascertain estimation activities in each of these states. We refined a classification framework to describe and assess general estimation options. We subsequently developed and applied criteria to describe and assess specific estimation approaches proposed by federal regulators, state regulators, utilities, independent power companies, and consultants.

  19. Uncertainties in Early Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A case study on biorefinery design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurkan eSin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early stage design is a challenging task. This is especially important in biorefinery research, where available information and experiences with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs (a Bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data is available and (b the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data is not available. Four well-known models for early stage cost estimation are reviewed an analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision making under uncertainties. One of the results using an order-of-magnitude estimate shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with economic risks of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a due to uncertainties in cost estimations, respectively.

  20. Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reuben Granich

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral Treatment (ART significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa. METHODS: We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15-49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm(3 (current practice, CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011-2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs, HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm(3 prevents an estimated 265,000 (17% and 1.3 million (15% new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and $3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45% and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves $0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9-194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99%, savings from all CD4 levels reach $17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%. CONCLUSION: Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated.

  1. Estimation of marginal abatement costs for undesirable outputs in India's power generation sector: An output distance function approach.

    OpenAIRE

    Manish Gupta

    2005-01-01

    Many production activities generate undesirable byproducts in conjunction with the desirable outputs they produce. The present study uses an output distance function approach and its duality with the revenue function to estimate the marginal abatement cost of CO2 emissions from a sample of thermal plants in India. Two sets of exercises have been undertaken. The marginal abatement cost is first estimated without considering the distinction between the clean and the dirty plants (model-1) and t...

  2. Integrated Library Systems for Small Libraries: Estimating the Cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havercamp, Dan

    1985-01-01

    The "average" costs of integrated library system components--including hardware, software, and related expenses--are outlined to assist in projecting the costs of a small system. Potential benefits of such systems, i.e., areas in which operational costs can be reduced through their use, are also reviewed. (EJS)

  3. What Would It Cost to Coach Every New Principal? An Estimate Using Statewide Personnel Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lochmiller, Chad R.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, I use Levin and McEwan's (2001) cost feasibility approach and personnel data obtained from the Superintendent of Public Instruction to estimate the cost of providing coaching support to every newly hired principal in Washington State. Based on this descriptive analysis, I estimate that the cost to provide leadership coaching to…

  4. Cost estimation for the active debris removal of multiple priority targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Vitali; Wiedemann, Carsten; Schulz, Eugen

    The increasing number of space debris objects, especially in distinct low Earth orbit (LEO) altitudes between 600 and 1000 km, leads to an increase in the potential collision risk between the objects and threatens active satellites in that region. Several recent studies show that active debris removal (ADR) has to be performed in order to prevent a collisional cascading effect, also known as the Kessler syndrome. In order to stabilize the population growth in the critical LEO region, a removal of five prioritized objects per year has been recognized as a significant figure. Various proposals are addressing the technical issues for ADR missions, including the de-orbiting of objects by means of a service satellite using a chemical or an electric propulsion system. The servicer would rendezvous with a preselected target, perform a docking maneuver and then provide a de-orbit burn to transfer the target on a trajectory where it re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere within a given time frame. In this paper the technical aspects are complemented by a cost estimation model, focusing on multi target missions, which are based on a service satellite capable of de-orbiting more than one target within a single mission. The cost model for ADR includes initial development cost, production cost, launch cost and operation cost as well as the modelling of the propulsion system of the servicer. Therefore, different scenarios are defined for chemical and electric propulsion systems as applied to multi target missions, based on a literature review of concepts currently being under discussion. The costs of multi target missions are compared to a scenario where only one target is removed. Also, the results allow to determine an optimum number of objects to be removed per mission and provide numbers which can be used in future studies, e.g. those related to ADR cost and benefit analyses.

  5. Energetic costs of mange in wolves estimated from infrared thermography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, P C; Almberg, E S; Haase, C G; Hudson, P J; Maloney, S K; Metz, M C; Munn, A J; Nugent, P; Putzeys, O; Stahler, D R; Stewart, A C; Smith, D W

    2016-08-01

    Parasites, by definition, extract energy from their hosts and thus affect trophic and food web dynamics even when the parasite may have limited effects on host population size. We studied the energetic costs of mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) in wolves (Canis lupus) using thermal cameras to estimate heat losses associated with compromised insulation during the winter. We combined the field data of known, naturally infected wolves with a data set on captive wolves with shaved patches of fur as a positive control to simulate mange-induced hair loss. We predict that during the winter in Montana, more severe mange infection increases heat loss by around 5.2-12 MJ per night (1,240-2,850 kcal, or a 65-78% increase) for small and large wolves, respectively, accounting for wind effects. To maintain body temperature would require a significant proportion of a healthy wolf's total daily energy demands (18-22 MJ/day). We also predict how these thermal costs may increase in colder climates by comparing our predictions in Bozeman, Montana to those from a place with lower ambient temperatures (Fairbanks, Alaska). Contrary to our expectations, the 14°C differential between these regions was not as important as the potential differences in wind speed. These large increases in energetic demands can be mitigated by either increasing consumption rates or decreasing other energy demands. Data from GPS-collared wolves indicated that healthy wolves move, on average, 17 km per day, which was reduced by 1.5, 1.8, and 6.5 km for light, medium, and severe hair loss. In addition, the wolf with the most hair loss was less active at night and more active during the day, which is the converse of the movement patterns of healthy wolves. At the individual level, mange infections create significant energy demands and altered behavioral patterns, this may have cascading effects on prey consumption rates, food web dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and scavenger communities.

  6. Estimation of economic costs of particulate air pollution from road transport in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, X. R.; Cheng, S. Y.; Chen, D. S.; Zhou, Y.; Wang, H. Y.

    2010-09-01

    Valuation of health effects of air pollution is becoming a critical component of the performance of cost-benefit analysis of pollution control measures, which provides a basis for setting priorities for action. Beijing has focused on control of transport emission as vehicular emissions have recently become an important source of air pollution, particularly during Olympic games and Post-games. In this paper, we conducted an estimation of health effects and economic cost caused by road transport-related air pollution using an integrated assessment approach which utilizes air quality model, engineering, epidemiology, and economics. The results show that the total economic cost of health impacts due to air pollution contributed from transport in Beijing during 2004-2008 was 272, 297, 310, 323, 298 million US (mean value), respectively. The economic costs of road transport accounted for 0.52, 0.57, 0.60, 0.62, and 0.58% of annual Beijing GDP from 2004 to 2008. Average cost per vehicle and per ton of PM 10 emission from road transport can also be estimated as 106 US /number and 3584 US $ t -1, respectively. These findings illustrate that the impact of road transport contributed particulate air pollution on human health could be substantial in Beijing, whether in physical and economic terms. Therefore, some control measures to reduce transport emissions could lead to considerable economic benefit.

  7. From Costs to Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2015-01-01

    . Implementation of our findings would facilitate an organisation’s strategic planning for curation services through an improved understanding of services, streamlining and improvement of those services, planning for new collaborations, and identifying new business opportunities.......This deliverable discusses business models for digital curation. It helps organisations to understand the requirements and drivers for curation services from a supplier and demand side. We investigated existing services and have developed guidelines to address new business opportunities...

  8. Econometric estimation of investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms using hyperbolic distance functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Arne; Fabricius, Ole; Olsen, Jakob Vesterlund

    2014-01-01

    and by reduced outputs, we estimate hyperbolic distance functions that account for reduced technical efficiency both in terms of increased inputs and reduced outputs. We estimate these hyperbolic distance functions as “efficiency effect frontiers” with the Translog functional form and a dynamic specification......Based on a theoretical microeconomic model, we econometrically estimate investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms based on a large unbalanced panel dataset. As our theoretical model indicates that adjustment costs are caused both by increased inputs...

  9. Estimating the cost of diabetes mellitus-related events from inpatient admissions in Sweden using administrative hospitalization data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Clarke, Philip; Hayes, Alison; Gudbjornsdottir, Soffia

    2009-01-01

    To estimate short- and long-term costs of inpatient hospitalization in Sweden for major diabetes mellitus-related events. Costs were estimated using administrative hospital data from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare, which is linked to the Swedish National Diabetes Register. Data were available for 179 749 patients with diabetes in Sweden from 1998 to 2003 (mean and median duration of 6 years' follow-up). Costing of inpatient admissions was based on Nordic diagnosis-related groups (NordDRG). Multiple regression analysis (linear and generalizing estimating equation models) was used to estimate inpatient care costs controlling for age, sex and co-morbidities. The data on hospitalizations were converted to costs (euro) using 2003 exchange rates. The average annual costs (linear model) associated with inpatient admissions for a 60-year-old male in the year the first event first occurred were as follows: euro6488 (95% CI 5034, 8354) for diabetic coma; euro6850 (95% CI 6514, 7204) for heart failure; euro7853 (95% CI 7559, 8144) for non-fatal stroke; euro8121 (95% CI 7104, 9128) for peripheral circulatory complications; euro8736 (95% CI 8474, 9001) for non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI); euro10 360 (95% CI 10 085, 10 643) for ischaemic heart disease; euro11 411 (95% CI 10 298, 12 654) for renal failure; and euro14 949 (95% CI 13 849, 16 551) for amputation. On average, the costs were higher when co-morbidity was accounted for (e.g. MI with co-morbidity was twice as costly as MI alone). Average hospital inpatient costs associated with common diabetes-related events can be estimated using panel data regression methods. These could assist in modelling of long-term costs of diabetes and in evaluating the cost effectiveness of improving care.

  10. Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI) Cost Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mary Alice Price

    2010-07-11

    The Nevada Test Site (NTS) began operating Material Control and Accountability (MC&A) under the Safeguards First Principle Initiative (SFPI), a risk-based and cost-effective program, in December 2006. The NTS SFPI Comprehensive Assessment of Safeguards Systems (COMPASS) Model is made up of specific elements (MC&A plan, graded safeguards, accounting systems, measurements, containment, surveillance, physical inventories, shipper/receiver differences, assessments/performance tests) and various sub-elements, which are each assigned effectiveness and contribution factors that when weighted and rated reflect the health of the MC&A program. The MC&A Cost Model, using an Excel workbook, calculates budget and/or actual costs using these same elements/sub-elements resulting in total costs and effectiveness costs per element/sub-element. These calculations allow management to identify how costs are distributed for each element/sub-element. The Cost Model, as part of the SFPI program review process, enables management to determine if spending is appropriate for each element/sub-element.

  11. Estimating study costs for use in VOI, a study of dutch publicly funded drug related research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Asselt, A.D.; Ramaekers, B.L.; Corro Ramos, I.; Joore, M.A.; Al, M.J.; Lesman-Leegte, I.; Postma, M.J.; Vemer, P.; Feenstra, T.F.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: To perform value of information (VOI) analyses, an estimate of research costs is needed. However, reference values for such costs are not available. This study aimed to analyze empirical data on research budgets and, by means of a cost tool, provide an overview of costs of several types

  12. Healthcare costs associated with prostate cancer : estimates from a population-based study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krahn, Murray D.; Zagorski, Brandon; Laporte, Audrey; Alibhai, Shabbir M. H.; Bremner, Karen E.; Tomlinson, George; Warde, Padraig; Naglie, Gary

    OBJECTIVE To estimate the total healthcare costs and costs attributable to prostate cancer across all stages of disease, and to determine the predictors of those costs, as describing the cost of care for patients with prostate cancer is useful to understand the economic burden of illness, explore

  13. New Approaches in Reusable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model

  14. New Approaches in Reuseable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model

  15. Adaptive UAV attitude estimation employing unscented Kalman Filter, FOAM and low-cost MEMS sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Marina, Héctor García; Espinosa, Felipe; Santos, Carlos

    2012-01-01

    Navigation employing low cost MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is an uprising challenge. One important part of this navigation is the right estimation of the attitude angles. Most of the existent algorithms handle the sensor readings in a fixed way, leading to large errors in different mission stages like take-off aerobatic maneuvers. This paper presents an adaptive method to estimate these angles using off-the-shelf components. This paper introduces an Attitude Heading Reference System (AHRS) based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) using the Fast Optimal Attitude Matrix (FOAM) algorithm as the observation model. The performance of the method is assessed through simulations. Moreover, field experiments are presented using a real fixed-wing UAV. The proposed low cost solution, implemented in a microcontroller, shows a satisfactory real time performance.

  16. Lunar base scenario cost estimates: Lunar base systems study task 6.1

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    The projected development and production costs of each of the Lunar Base's systems are described and unit costs are estimated for transporting the systems to the lunar surface and for setting up the system.

  17. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the City of Houston's 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA's Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  18. Development of hybrid lifecycle cost estimating tool (HLCET) for manufacturing influenced design tradeoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirirojvisuth, Apinut

    In complex aerospace system design, making an effective design decision requires multidisciplinary knowledge from both product and process perspectives. Integrating manufacturing considerations into the design process is most valuable during the early design stages since designers have more freedom to integrate new ideas when changes are relatively inexpensive in terms of time and effort. Several metrics related to manufacturability are cost, time, and manufacturing readiness level (MRL). Yet, there is a lack of structured methodology that quantifies how changes in the design decisions impact these metrics. As a result, a new set of integrated cost analysis tools are proposed in this study to quantify the impacts. Equally important is the capability to integrate this new cost tool into the existing design methodologies without sacrificing agility and flexibility required during the early design phases. To demonstrate the applicability of this concept, a ModelCenter environment is used to develop software architecture that represents Integrated Product and Process Development (IPPD) methodology used in several aerospace systems designs. The environment seamlessly integrates product and process analysis tools and makes effective transition from one design phase to the other while retaining knowledge gained a priori. Then, an advanced cost estimating tool called Hybrid Lifecycle Cost Estimating Tool (HLCET), a hybrid combination of weight-, process-, and activity-based estimating techniques, is integrated with the design framework. A new weight-based lifecycle cost model is created based on Tailored Cost Model (TCM) equations [3]. This lifecycle cost tool estimates the program cost based on vehicle component weights and programmatic assumptions. Additional high fidelity cost tools like process-based and activity-based cost analysis methods can be used to modify the baseline TCM result as more knowledge is accumulated over design iterations. Therefore, with this

  19. FREQUENTIST MODEL AVERAGING ESTIMATION: A REVIEW

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Haiying WANG; Xinyu ZHANG; Guohua ZOU

    2009-01-01

    In applications, the traditional estimation procedure generally begins with model selection.Once a specific model is selected, subsequent estimation is conducted under the selected model without consideration of the uncertainty from the selection process. This often leads to the underreporting of variability and too optimistic confidence sets. Model averaging estimation is an alternative to this procedure, which incorporates model uncertainty into the estimation process. In recent years, there has been a rising interest in model averaging from the frequentist perspective, and some important progresses have been made. In this paper, the theory and methods on frequentist model averaging estimation are surveyed. Some future research topics are also discussed.

  20. Key issues for estimating the impact and cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Newall, Anthony T; Beutels, Philippe

    2013-04-01

    Many countries have considered or are considering modifying their seasonal influenza immunization policies. Estimating the impact of such changes requires understanding the existing clinical and economic burden of influenza, as well as the potential impact of different vaccination options. Previous studies suggest that vaccinating clinical risk groups, health care workers, children and the elderly may be cost-effective. However, challenges in such estimation include: (1) potential cases are not usually virologically tested; (2) cases have non-specific symptoms and are rarely reported to surveillance systems; (3) endpoints for influenza proxies (such as influenza-like illness) need to be matched to case definitions for treatment costs, (4) disease burden estimates vary from year to year with strain transmissibility, virulence and prior immunity, (5) methods to estimate productivity losses due to influenza vary, (6) vaccine efficacy estimates from trials differ due to variation in subtype prevalence, vaccine match and case ascertainment, and (7) indirect (herd) protection from vaccination depends on setting-specific variables that are difficult to directly measure. Given the importance of knowing the impact of changes to influenza policy, such complexities need careful treatment using tools such as population-based trial designs, meta-analyses, time-series analyses and transmission dynamic models.

  1. A building cost estimation method for inland ships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hekkenberg, R.G.

    2014-01-01

    There is very little publicly available data about the building cost of inland ships, especially for ships that have dimensions that differ significantly from those of common ships. Also, no methods to determine the building cost of inland ships are described in literature. In this paper, a method t

  2. 28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... each cost element, consistent with the carrier's cost accounting system. (4) When more than one line... element. (5) Depending on the carrier's accounting system, the carrier shall provide breakdowns for the... materials, parts, software, components, and assemblies. For all items proposed, identify the item,...

  3. Production Functions for Water Delivery Systems: Analysis and Estimation Using Dual Cost Function and Implicit Price Specifications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teeples, Ronald; Glyer, David

    1987-05-01

    Both policy and technical analysis of water delivery systems have been based on cost functions that are inconsistent with or are incomplete representations of the neoclassical production functions of economics. We present a full-featured production function model of water delivery which can be estimated from a multiproduct, dual cost function. The model features implicit prices for own-water inputs and is implemented as a jointly estimated system of input share equations and a translog cost function. Likelihood ratio tests are performed showing that a minimally constrained, full-featured production function is a necessary specification of the water delivery operations in our sample. This, plus the model's highly efficient and economically correct parameter estimates, confirms the usefulness of a production function approach to modeling the economic activities of water delivery systems.

  4. Estimating the cost of operating cancer registries: Experience in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Esther; Pardo, Constanza; Arias, Nelson; Bravo, Luis Eduardo; Navarro, Edgar; Uribe, Claudia; Yepez, María Clara; Jurado, Daniel; Garci, Luz Stella; Piñeros, Marion; Edwards, Patrick; Beebe, Maggie Cole; Tangka, Florence; Subramanian, Sujha

    2016-12-01

    Maintaining population-based registries requires adequate and sustained resources; however, to date there has been no systematic evaluation to identify the resource needs for cancer registration in most countries, including Colombia. A systematic assessment of the costs can quantify the funding required and identify processes to improve efficiency of cancer registries. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) International Registry Costing Tool (IntRegCosting Tool) was tailored specifically for the Colombian registries and was used to collect resource use data from five regional population-based cancer registries: Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Cali, Manizales, and Pasto. The registries provided cost data for the year 2013 and cancer cases corresponding to the year 2010. We identified an almost threefold variation in the average cost per case (77,932 to 214,082 Colombian pesos or US $41 to US $113 in 2013) across the registries, but there were also substantial differences in data collection approaches, types of data collected, and activities performed. Cost per inhabitant varied between 95 and 415 Colombian pesos (US $0.05 to US $0.22). Between 20% and 45% of the total cost was due to fixed cost activities. The detailed economic information presented in this study constitutes a valuable source of activity-based cost data that registries can use to compare operations, assess key factors that lead to differences in cost per case, and identify potential approaches to improve efficiencies. Furthermore, the knowledge gained from studying the Colombian registries can help inform the planning and operations of other registries in the region. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Stochastic Frontier Estimation of a CES Cost Function: The Case of Higher Education in Britain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izadi, Hooshang; Johnes, Geraint; Oskrochi, Reza; Crouchley, Robert

    2002-01-01

    Examines the use of stochastic frontier estimation of constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost function to measure differences in efficiency among British universities. (Contains 28 references.) (PKP)

  6. Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models using Prediction-based Estimating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunde, Asger; Brix, Anne Floor

    In this paper prediction-based estimating functions (PBEFs), introduced in Sørensen (2000), are reviewed and PBEFs for the Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model are derived. The finite sample performance of the PBEF based estimator is investigated in a Monte Carlo study, and compared to the p......In this paper prediction-based estimating functions (PBEFs), introduced in Sørensen (2000), are reviewed and PBEFs for the Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model are derived. The finite sample performance of the PBEF based estimator is investigated in a Monte Carlo study, and compared...... to the performance of the GMM estimator based on conditional moments of integrated volatility from Bollerslev and Zhou (2002). The case where the observed log-price process is contaminated by i.i.d. market microstructure (MMS) noise is also investigated. First, the impact of MMS noise on the parameter estimates from...

  7. Cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis treatment shortening: a model-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, G B; Dowdy, D W; Bastos, M L; Zwerling, A; Sweeney, S; Foster, N; Trajman, A; Islam, M A; Kapiga, S; Sinanovic, E; Knight, G M; White, R G; Wells, W A; Cobelens, F G; Vassall, A

    2016-12-01

    Despite improvements in treatment success rates for tuberculosis (TB), current six-month regimen duration remains a challenge for many National TB Programmes, health systems, and patients. There is increasing investment in the development of shortened regimens with a number of candidates in phase 3 trials. We developed an individual-based decision analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical four-month regimen for first-line treatment of TB, assuming non-inferiority to current regimens of six-month duration. The model was populated using extensive, empirically-collected data to estimate the economic impact on both health systems and patients of regimen shortening for first-line TB treatment in South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Tanzania. We explicitly considered 'real world' constraints such as sub-optimal guideline adherence. From a societal perspective, a shortened regimen, priced at USD1 per day, could be a cost-saving option in South Africa, Brazil, and Tanzania, but would not be cost-effective in Bangladesh when compared to one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Incorporating 'real world' constraints reduces cost-effectiveness. Patient-incurred costs could be reduced in all settings. From a health service perspective, increased drug costs need to be balanced against decreased delivery costs. The new regimen would remain a cost-effective option, when compared to each countries' GDP per capita, even if new drugs cost up to USD7.5 and USD53.8 per day in South Africa and Brazil; this threshold was above USD1 in Tanzania and under USD1 in Bangladesh. Reducing the duration of first-line TB treatment has the potential for substantial economic gains from a patient perspective. The potential economic gains for health services may also be important, but will be context-specific and dependent on the appropriate pricing of any new regimen.

  8. Solar central receiver prototype heliostat. Volume III. Cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1978-06-01

    The Boeing heliostat design can be produced and installed for a Capital Cost of $42 per square meter at high commercial plant quantities and rates. This is 14% less than the DOE cost target. Even at a low commercial plant production rate of 25,000 heliostats per year the Capital Cost of $48 per square meter is 2% less than the cost goal established by the DOE. Projected capital costs and 30 year maintenance costs for three scenarios of production and installation are presented: (1) commercial rate production of 25,000, 250,000, and 1,000,000 heliostats per year; (2) a one-time only production quantity of 2500 heliostats; and (3) commercial rate production of 25,000 heliostats per year with each plant (25,000 heliostats) installed at widely dispersed sites throughout the Southwestern United States. These three scenarios for solar plant locations and the manufacturing/installation processes are fully described, and detailed cost breakdowns for the three scenarios are provided.

  9. VA Construction: Improved Processes Needed to Monitor Contract Modifications, Develop Schedules, and Estimate Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    that designs should avoid costly and unwarranted architectural and engineering embellishments and unnecessary construction and maintenance expenses ...relevant data taken from the existing contract, remaining construction work, and cost information from other hospitals . Credible A cost estimate is...Office of Management and Budget Circular A-11 states that the cost of a capital asset such as a new hospital is its full life-cycle cost, which

  10. Transport of solid commodities via freight pipeline: cost estimating methodology. Volume III, parts A and B. First year final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, J.A.; Morlok, E.K.; Gimm, K.K.; Zandi, I.

    1976-07-01

    In order to examine the feasibility of an intercity freight pipeline, it was necessary to develop cost equations for various competing transportation modes. This volume presents cost-estimating equations for rail carload, trailer-on-flatcar, truck, and freight pipeline. Section A presents mathematical equations that approximate the fully allocated and variable costs contained in the ICC cost tables for rail carload, trailer-on-flatcar (TOFC) and truck common-carrier intercity freight movements. These equations were developed to enable the user to approximate the ICC costs quickly and easily. They should find use in initial studies of costs where exact values are not needed, such as in consideration of rate changes, studies of profitability, and in general inter-modal comparisons. Section B discusses the development of a set of engineering cost equations for pneumo-capsule pipelines. The development was based on an analysis of system components and can readily be extended to other types of pipeline. The model was developed for the purpose of a feasibility study. It employs a limited number of generalized parameters and its use is recommended when sufficient detailed and specific engineering information is lacking. These models were used in the comparison of modes presented in Volume I and hence no conclusions regarding relative costs or service of the modes are presented here. The primary conclusion is that the estimates of costs resulting from these models is subject to considerable uncertainty.

  11. Testing Estimates of Housing Cost Differences among US Metropolitan Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd Easton

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the accuracy of six measures of housing cost differences among US metropolitan areas. Using Census data from 177 metropolitan areas, it tests the measures in two ways. First, it tests the ability of changes in the measures to predict changes in the shelter component of the metropolitan CPI from 1990 to 2000. Second, it tests the ability of the measures themselves to predict a proxy in 2000. A measure based on Fair Market Rents calculated by HUD placed second on the first test but did badly on the second. The housing component of the ACCRA index, a living cost measure frequently used by researchers, performed poorly on both tests. The top performer on both tests was a measure based on the average rent per room for a metropolitan area’s dwellings. Researchers wishing to control for living cost differences among places should consider including it in their living cost index.

  12. Estimation of marginal costs at existing waste treatment facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Sanchez, Veronica; Hulgaard, Tore; Hindsgaul, Claus; Riber, Christian; Kamuk, Bettina; Astrup, Thomas F

    2016-04-01

    This investigation aims at providing an improved basis for assessing economic consequences of alternative Solid Waste Management (SWM) strategies for existing waste facilities. A bottom-up methodology was developed to determine marginal costs in existing facilities due to changes in the SWM system, based on the determination of average costs in such waste facilities as function of key facility and waste compositional parameters. The applicability of the method was demonstrated through a case study including two existing Waste-to-Energy (WtE) facilities, one with co-generation of heat and power (CHP) and another with only power generation (Power), affected by diversion strategies of five waste fractions (fibres, plastic, metals, organics and glass), named "target fractions". The study assumed three possible responses to waste diversion in the WtE facilities: (i) biomass was added to maintain a constant thermal load, (ii) Refused-Derived-Fuel (RDF) was included to maintain a constant thermal load, or (iii) no reaction occurred resulting in a reduced waste throughput without full utilization of the facility capacity. Results demonstrated that marginal costs of diversion from WtE were up to eleven times larger than average costs and dependent on the response in the WtE plant. Marginal cost of diversion were between 39 and 287 € Mg(-1) target fraction when biomass was added in a CHP (from 34 to 303 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case), between -2 and 300 € Mg(-1) target fraction when RDF was added in a CHP (from -2 to 294 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case) and between 40 and 303 € Mg(-1) target fraction when no reaction happened in a CHP (from 35 to 296 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case). Although average costs at WtE facilities were highly influenced by energy selling prices, marginal costs were not (provided a response was initiated at the WtE to keep constant the utilized thermal capacity). Failing to systematically

  13. Probabilistic estimation of numbers and costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crovelli, R.A.; Coe, J.A.

    2009-01-01

    We used historical records of damaging landslides triggered by rainstorms and a newly developed Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) to estimate the numbers and direct costs of future landslides in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region. Historical records of damaging landslides in the region are incomplete. Therefore, our estimates of numbers and costs of future landslides are minimal estimates. The estimated mean annual number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region is about 65. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated mean annual number of damaging future landslides (about 18), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated mean numbers of damaging landslides (about 1 each). The estimated mean annual cost of future landslides in the entire region is about US $14.80 million (year 2000 $). The estimated mean annual cost is highest for San Mateo County ($3.24 million) and lowest for Solano County ($0.18 million). The annual per capita cost for the entire region will be about $2.10. Santa Cruz County will have the highest annual per capita cost at $8.45, whereas San Francisco County will have the lowest per capita cost at $0.31. Normalising costs by dividing by the percentage of land area with slopes equal to or greater than 17% indicates that San Francisco County will have the highest cost per square km ($7,101), whereas Santa Clara County will have the lowest cost per square km ($229). These results indicate that the San Francisco Bay region has one of the highest levels of landslide risk in the United States. Compared with landslide cost estimates from the rest of the world, the risk level in the Bay region seems high, but not exceptionally high.

  14. Software cost estimation, benchmarking, and risk assessment the software decision-makers' guide to predictable software development

    CERN Document Server

    Trendowicz, Adam

    2012-01-01

    Software effort estimation is a key element of software project planning and management. Yet, in industrial practice, the important role of effort estimation is often underestimated and/or misunderstood. In this book, Adam Trendowicz presents the CoBRA method (an abbreviation for Cost Estimation, Benchmarking, and Risk Assessment) for estimating the effort required to successfully complete a software development project, which uniquely combines human judgment and measurement data in order to systematically create a custom-specific effort estimation model. CoBRA goes far beyond simply predictin

  15. Estimated hospital costs associated with preventable health care-associated infections if health care antiseptic products were unavailable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmier, Jordana K; Hulme-Lowe, Carolyn K; Semenova, Svetlana; Klenk, Juergen A; DeLeo, Paul C; Sedlak, Richard; Carlson, Pete A

    2016-01-01

    Health care-associated infections (HAIs) pose a significant health care and cost burden. This study estimates annual HAI hospital costs in the US avoided through use of health care antiseptics (health care personnel hand washes and rubs; surgical hand scrubs and rubs; patient preoperative and preinjection skin preparations). A spreadsheet model was developed with base case inputs derived from the published literature, supplemented with assumptions when data were insufficient. Five HAIs of interest were identified: catheter-associated urinary tract infections, central line-associated bloodstream infections, gastrointestinal infections caused by Clostridium difficile, hospital- or ventilator-associated pneumonia, and surgical site infections. A national estimate of the annual potential lost benefits from elimination of these products is calculated based on the number of HAIs, the proportion of HAIs that are preventable, the proportion of preventable HAIs associated with health care antiseptics, and HAI hospital costs. The model is designed to be user friendly and to allow assumptions about prevention across all infections to vary or stay the same. Sensitivity analyses provide low- and high-end estimates of costs avoided. Low- and high-end estimates of national, annual HAIs in hospitals avoided through use of health care antiseptics are 12,100 and 223,000, respectively, with associated hospital costs avoided of US$142 million and US$4.25 billion, respectively. The model presents a novel approach to estimating the economic impact of health care antiseptic use for HAI avoidance, with the ability to vary model parameters to reflect specific scenarios. While not all HAIs are avoidable, removing or limiting access to an effective preventive tool would have a substantial impact on patient well-being and infection costs. HAI avoidance through use of health care antiseptics has a demonstrable and substantial impact on health care expenditures; the costs here are exclusive of

  16. Cost estimation in software engineering projects with web components development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier de Andrés

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Existen multitud de modelos propuestos para la predicción de co stes en proyectos de software, al gunos orientados específicamen te para proyectos Web. Este trabajo analiza si los modelos específicos para proyectos Web están justifi cados, examinando el comportami ento diferencial de los costes entre proyectos de desarrollo softwar e Web y no Web. Se analizan dos aspectos del cálculo de costes: las deseconomías de escala, y el im pacto de algunas características de estos proyectos que son utilizadas como cost drivers. Se en uncian dos hipótesis: (a en estos proyect os las deseconomías de escala so n mayores y (b el incremento de coste que provocan los cost dr ivers es menor para los proyectos Web. Se contrastaron estas hipótesis a nalizando un conjunto de proyectos reales. Los resultados sugie ren que ambas hipótesis se cumplen. Por lo tanto, la principal contribu ción a la literatura de esta inv estigación es que el desarrollo de modelos específicos para los proyectos Web está justificado.

  17. Kalman filter estimation model in flood forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husain, Tahir

    Elementary precipitation and runoff estimation problems associated with hydrologic data collection networks are formulated in conjunction with the Kalman Filter Estimation Model. Examples involve the estimation of runoff using data from a single precipitation station and also from a number of precipitation stations. The formulations demonstrate the role of state-space, measurement, and estimation equations of the Kalman Filter Model in flood forecasting. To facilitate the formulation, the unit hydrograph concept and antecedent precipitation index is adopted in the estimation model. The methodology is then applied to estimate various flood events in the Carnation Creek of British Columbia.

  18. Discrete Choice Models - Estimation of Passenger Traffic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Majken Vildrik

    2003-01-01

    ), which simultaneously finds optimal coefficients values (utility elements) and parameter values (distributed terms) in the utility function. The shape of the distributed terms is specified prior to the estimation; hence, the validity is not tested during the estimation. The proposed method, assesses...... for data, a literature review follows. Models applied for estimation of discrete choice models are described by properties and limitations, and relations between these are established. Model types are grouped into three classes, Hybrid choice models, Tree models and Latent class models. Relations between...... the shape of the distribution from data, by means of repetitive model estimation. In particular, one model was estimated for each sub-sample of data. The shape of distributions is assessed from between model comparisons. This is not to be regarded as an alternative to MSL estimation, rather...

  19. 31 CFR Appendix I(f) to Part 13 - Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs I(F) Appendix I(F) to Part 13 Money and Finance: Treasury Office of the Secretary of the Treasury... Pt. 13, App. I(F) Appendix I(F) to Part 13—Estimated Overhead and Administrative Costs Date:...

  20. 40 CFR 264.144 - Cost estimate for post-closure care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... dollars or by using an inflation factor derived from the most recent Implicit Price Deflator for Gross... facility, the owner or operator must adjust the post-closure cost estimate for inflation within 60 days... cost estimate must be updated for inflation within 30 days after the close of the firm's fiscal year...

  1. 40 CFR 265.144 - Cost estimate for post-closure care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... current dollars or by using an inflation factor derived from the most recent Implicit Price Deflator for... of the facility, the owner or operator must adjust the post-closure cost estimate for inflation...-closure care cost estimate must be updated for inflation no later than 30 days after the close of the firm...

  2. Portfolio Optimization Model with Transaction Costs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shu-ping Chen; Chong Li; Sheng-hong Li; Xiong-wei Wu

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of the article is to formulate, under the l∞ risk measure, a model of portfolio selection with transaction costs and then investigate the optimal strategy within the proposed. The characterization of a optimal strategy and the efficient algorithm for finding the optimal strategy are given.

  3. Advance market commitments for vaccines against neglected diseases: estimating costs and effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndt, Ernst R; Glennerster, Rachel; Kremer, Michael R; Lee, Jean; Levine, Ruth; Weizsäcker, Georg; Williams, Heidi

    2007-05-01

    The G8 is considering committing to purchase vaccines against diseases concentrated in low-income countries (if and when desirable vaccines are developed) as a way to spur research and development on vaccines for these diseases. Under such an 'advance market commitment,' one or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price to be paid per person immunized for an eligible product, up to a certain number of individuals immunized. For additional purchases, the price would eventually drop to close to marginal cost. If no suitable product were developed, no payments would be made. We estimate the offer size which would make revenues similar to the revenues realized from investments in typical existing commercial pharmaceutical products, as well as the degree to which various model contracts and assumptions would affect the cost-effectiveness of such a commitment. We make adjustments for lower marketing costs under an advance market commitment and the risk that a developer may have to share the market with subsequent developers. We also show how this second risk could be reduced, and money saved, by introducing a superiority clause to a commitment. Under conservative assumptions, we document that a commitment comparable in value to sales earned by the average of a sample of recently launched commercial products (adjusted for lower marketing costs) would be a highly cost-effective way to address HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Sensitivity analyses suggest most characteristics of a hypothetical vaccine would have little effect on the cost-effectiveness, but that the duration of protection conferred by a vaccine strongly affects potential cost-effectiveness. Readers can conduct their own sensitivity analyses employing a web-based spreadsheet tool.

  4. Estimating Resource Costs of Levy Campaigns in Five Ohio School Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingle, W. Kyle; Petroff, Ruth Ann; Johnson, Paul A.

    2011-01-01

    Using Levin and McEwan's (2001) "ingredients method," this study identified the major activities and associated costs of school levy campaigns in five districts. The ingredients were divided into one of five cost categories--human resources, facilities, fees, marketing, and supplies. As to overall costs of the campaigns, estimates ranged…

  5. Verification of Cost Estimating Procedures for MAPS Computer Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-05-01

    gpd/ft Filtration Type media: Dual Loading rate: 5 gpm/ft Chlorination Storage: Tank cars Ammonia Powdered carbon Clearwell 2 to 25 mg belowground...cost functions for conventional treatment MAPS water treatment module does not account for intakes, sludge han- dling, clearwells , high service

  6. Aircraft Contractor Logistics Support: A Cost Estimating Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-09-01

    April 1983. 17. Enright , Mike. C-20A Cost Analyst, WPAFB OH. Per- sonal interview. 15 August 1983. 18. Fatkin, Allen. AFSC CAIG Research Report NRI...Aviation, Peterson AFB CO. Telephone interview. 11 May 1983. 32. Robert , Bob. Engineer for Doss Aviation, Randolph AFB TX. Telephone interview. 17 June

  7. Cost Estimation of Web Projects inContext with Agile Paradigm: Improvements and Validation

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    Agile practitioners have expressed concern over their inability to correctly estimate costs associated with Agile web software development. This concern has become even more critical as costs associated with development continue to increase. As a result, significant research attention is now intended for gaining a better understanding of the web based projects in context with Agile software-development process as well as constructing and evaluating calibrated software cost estimating tools. T...

  8. Estimating the cost of new drug development: is it really 802 million dollars?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Christopher P; Brantner, Van V

    2006-01-01

    This paper replicates the drug development cost estimates of Joseph DiMasi and colleagues ("The Price of Innovation"), using their published cost estimates along with information on success rates and durations from a publicly available data set. For drugs entering human clinical trials for the first time between 1989 and 2002, the paper estimated the cost per new drug to be 868 million dollars. However, our estimates vary from around 500 million dollars to more than 2,000 million dollars, depending on the therapy or the developing firm.

  9. COINTEGRATION RELATIONSHIPS TO ESTIMATE THE MARGINAL COST OF DEFICIT IN PLANNING A HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEM: THE CASE OF BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucio Guido Tapia Carpio

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyze the behavior of gross domestic product (GDP compared to electricity consumption in Brazil to estimate the curve of deficit marginal cost. The deficit cost is used as exogenous parameter in the chain of models for planning the operation and expansion of a hydrothermal system as part of the total cost of operation. The results show a cointegration relationship between GDP and electricity consumption; therefore, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and electricity consumption. This relationship is used to estimate the curve of deficit marginal cost. The possible short-term imbalance can be mitigated using the vector error correction model (VEC.

  10. Parabolic Trough Reference Plant for Cost Modeling with the Solar Advisor Model (SAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turchi, C.

    2010-07-01

    This report describes a component-based cost model developed for parabolic trough solar power plants. The cost model was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), assisted by WorleyParsons Group Inc., for use with NREL's Solar Advisor Model (SAM). This report includes an overview and explanation of the model, two summary contract reports from WorleyParsons, and an Excel spreadsheet for use with SAM. The cost study uses a reference plant with a 100-MWe capacity and six hours of thermal energy storage. Wet-cooling and dry-cooling configurations are considered. The spreadsheet includes capital and operating cost by component to allow users to estimate the impact of changes in component costs.

  11. Molten Salt: Concept Definition and Capital Cost Estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stoddard, Larry [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Andrew, Daniel [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Adams, Shannon [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Galluzzo, Geoff [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States)

    2016-06-30

    The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Renewable Power (ORP) has been tasked to provide effective program management and strategic direction for all of the DOE’s Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) renewable power programs. The ORP’s efforts to accomplish this mission are aligned with national energy policies, DOE strategic planning, EERE’s strategic planning, Congressional appropriation, and stakeholder advice. ORP is supported by three renewable energy offices, of which one is the Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) whose SunShot Initiative has a mission to accelerate research, development and large scale deployment of solar technologies in the United States. SETO has a goal of reducing the cost of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) by 75 percent of 2010 costs by 2020 to reach parity with base-load energy rates, and to reduce costs 30 percent further by 2030. The SunShot Initiative is promoting the implementation of high temperature CSP with thermal energy storage allowing generation during high demand hours. The SunShot Initiative has funded significant research and development work on component testing, with attention to high temperature molten salts, heliostats, receiver designs, and high efficiency high temperature supercritical CO2 (sCO2) cycles. DOE retained Black & Veatch to support SETO’s SunShot Initiative for CSP solar power tower technology in the following areas: 1. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of a flexible test facility to be used to test and prove components in part to support financing. 2. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of an integrated high temperature molten salt (MS) facility with thermal energy storage and with a supercritical CO2 cycle generating approximately 10MWe. 3. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of an integrated high temperature falling particle facility with thermal energy storage and with a supercritical CO2

  12. Estimating Power Outage Cost based on a Survey for Industrial Customers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Yoshikuni; Matsuhashi, Ryuji

    A survey was conducted on power outage cost for industrial customers. 5139 factories, which are designated energy management factories in Japan, answered their power consumption and the loss of production value due to the power outage in an hour in summer weekday. The median of unit cost of power outage of whole sectors is estimated as 672 yen/kWh. The sector of services for amusement and hobbies and the sector of manufacture of information and communication electronics equipment relatively have higher unit cost of power outage. Direct damage cost from power outage in whole sectors reaches 77 billion yen. Then utilizing input-output analysis, we estimated indirect damage cost that is caused by the repercussion of production halt. Indirect damage cost in whole sectors reaches 91 billion yen. The sector of wholesale and retail trade has the largest direct damage cost. The sector of manufacture of transportation equipment has the largest indirect damage cost.

  13. Cost Optimization of Product Families using Analytic Cost Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunø, Thomas Ditlev; Nielsen, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a new method for analysing the cost structure of a mass customized product family. The method uses linear regression and backwards selection to reduce the complexity of a data set describing a number of historical product configurations and incurred costs. By reducing the data...... set, the configuration variables which best describe the variation in product costs are identified. The method is tested using data from a Danish manufacturing company and the results indicate that the method is able to identify the most critical configuration variables. The method can be applied...... in product family redesign projects focusing on cost reduction to identify which modules contribute the most to cost variation and should thus be optimized....

  14. Cost Optimization of Product Families using Analytic Cost Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunø, Thomas Ditlev; Nielsen, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a new method for analysing the cost structure of a mass customized product family. The method uses linear regression and backwards selection to reduce the complexity of a data set describing a number of historical product configurations and incurred costs. By reducing the data...... set, the configuration variables which best describe the variation in product costs are identified. The method is tested using data from a Danish manufacturing company and the results indicate that the method is able to identify the most critical configuration variables. The method can be applied...... in product family redesign projects focusing on cost reduction to identify which modules contribute the most to cost variation and should thus be optimized....

  15. Evidence that Risk Adjustment is Unnecessary in Estimates of the User Cost of Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Investors value the  special attributes of monetary assets (e.g.,  exchangeability, liquidity, and safety  and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate. The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the  returns on illiquid risky assets and  those of safer liquid assets. A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the  differential risk of the  assets in question. We investigate the  impact that time  non-separable preferences has on the  estimation of the  risk-adjusted user cost of money. Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model  with money  in the utility function and  find that the  risk  adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible. Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the  user cost of money  in constructing monetary aggregate indexes.

  16. Groundwater Recharge Estimation using Low-Cost Observation Techniques and Potential Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holländer, Hartmut; Wang, Zijian; Assefa, Kibreab; Woodbury, Allan

    2016-04-01

    Sustainable groundwater management requests groundwater recharge estimation as a critical quantity. We used physical-based modelling using data from a low-cost weather station and tested the feasibility and robustness of recharge estimation. The method was tested on two locations in British Columbia (B.C.), Canada. The main study was conducted in Southern Abbotsford, B.C. and applications related to water management in future climates and to water usage optimization were conducted in Okanagan Valley, B.C. Recharge was determined using HYDRUS-1D. The meteorological data were recorded by a HOBO weather station for a short observation period (about 1 year) and an existing weather station (Abbotsford A) for long-term study purpose (27 years). The derived soil hydraulic parameters of two undisturbed soil cores were used to characterize the soil. Model performance was evaluated by using observed soil moisture and soil temperature data. A rigorous sensitivity analysis was used to test the robustness of the model. Recharge during the short observation period was estimated at 863 mm and 816 mm. The mean annual recharge was estimated at 848 mm/year, and 859 mm/year based on a time series of 27 years. 80% of precipitation contributed to recharge in hydrologic winter period. The comparison of the recharge estimates with other studies indicates a good agreement. Being able to predict transient recharge estimates, this method can provide a tool for estimates on nutrient leaching which is often controlled by strong precipitation events and rapid infiltration of water and nitrate into the soil. Modeling supports that recharge estimates at high temporal resolution also increase the prediction quality of nitrate leaching. The application for water resources related problems in the Okanagan Valley showed that linking groundwater and surface water using regional groundwater estimates improved calibration of existing groundwater model strongly and that our method is capable to use

  17. Estimation of marginal costs at existing waste treatment facilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Sanchez, Veronica; Hulgaard, Tore; Hindsgaul, Claus

    2016-01-01

    This investigation aims at providing an improved basis for assessing economic consequences of alternative Solid Waste Management (SWM) strategies for existing waste facilities. A bottom-up methodology was developed to determine marginal costs in existing facilities due to changes in the SWM system...... (CHP) and another with only power generation (Power), affected by diversion strategies of five waste fractions (fibres, plastic, metals, organics and glass), named "target fractions". The study assumed three possible responses to waste diversion in the WtE facilities: (i) biomass was added to maintain......, based on the determination of average costs in such waste facilities as function of key facility and waste compositional parameters. The applicability of the method was demonstrated through a case study including two existing Waste-to-Energy (WtE) facilities, one with co-generation of heat and power...

  18. Enhancing Cost Realism through Risk-Driven Contracting: Designing Incentive Fees Based on Probabilistic Cost Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-01

    it would award a CPFF contract to what it knew to be the lowest cost contractor to avoid the risk premium of incentive contracts ( Samuelson , 1986... Samuelson , W. (1986). Bidding for contracts. Management Science, 32(12), 1533–1550. Scherer, F. M. (1964). The theory of contractual incentives for cost

  19. Estimating the indirect costs associated with the expected number of cancer cases in Mexico by 2020

    OpenAIRE

    Cristina Gutiérrez-Delgado; Daniel Armas-Texta; Nancy Reynoso-Noverón; Abelardo Meneses-García; Alejandro Mohar-Betancourt

    2016-01-01

    Objective. To estimate the indirect costs generated by adults with cancer in Mexico from 2002-2020. Materials and methods. Using information from national sources and the national cancer incidence from GLOBOCAN, we estimated income lost due to premature death (ILPD), short-term benefits (STBs), disability pensions (DPs), and opportunity costs for the carer (OCCs) generated by patients with cancer. Amounts were reported in Mexican pesos. Results. We estimated 23 359 deaths and 216 679 new case...

  20. Estimating the Cost of Product Recycling with the Use of Ecodesign Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karwasz Anna

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on issues associated with the ecodesign of household appliances. The authors describe the estimation of recycling cost of end-of-life products using their original system supporting ecodesign. The cost estimate was conducted during product design stage using the information stored in CAD 3D system. A sample estimate was made for a washing machine, fridge, kettle, and a hairdryer.

  1. Estimating the mental health costs of racial discrimination

    OpenAIRE

    Elias, Amanuel; Paradies, Yin

    2016-01-01

    Background Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimat...

  2. Cost Estimates Of Concentrated Photovoltaic Heat Sink Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    also researched through analyzing electricity rate data, CPV market research , and a firsthand account with an industry representative from a... capital costs and intermittency (DASN, 2012). While the price per kWh of solar is falling as the solar market continues to mature, solar installation...grow (evolve India). Retrieved from http://evolveindia.in/blog/2015/10/24/solar-tracker- market - expected-to-grow/ NREL. (2016). Best research cell

  3. Estimating the mental health costs of racial discrimination

    OpenAIRE

    Elias, Amanuel; Paradies, Yin

    2016-01-01

    Background Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimat...

  4. Falling Particles: Concept Definition and Capital Cost Estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stoddard, Larry [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Galluzzo, Geoff [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Adams, Shannon [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States); Andrew, Daniel [Black & Veatch, Kansas City, MO (United States)

    2016-06-30

    The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Renewable Power (ORP) has been tasked to provide effective program management and strategic direction for all of the DOE’s Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) renewable power programs. The ORP’s efforts to accomplish this mission are aligned with national energy policies, DOE strategic planning, EERE’s strategic planning, Congressional appropriation, and stakeholder advice. ORP is supported by three renewable energy offices, of which one is the Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) whose SunShot Initiative has a mission to accelerate research, development and large scale deployment of solar technologies in the United States. SETO has a goal of reducing the cost of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) by 75 percent of 2010 costs by 2020 to reach parity with base-load energy rates, and to reduce costs 30 percent further by 2030. The SunShot Initiative is promoting the implementation of high temperature CSP with thermal energy storage allowing generation during high demand hours. The SunShot Initiative has funded significant research and development work on component testing, with attention to high temperature molten salts, heliostats, receiver designs, and high efficiency high temperature supercritical CO2 (sCO2) cycles.

  5. Estimation of Congestion Cost of Private Passenger Car Users in Malioboro, Yogyakarta

    OpenAIRE

    Sutomo H.; Munawar A.; Malkhamah S.; Sugiyanto G.

    2010-01-01

    Congestion is the condition when the hourly traffic demand exceeds the maximum sustainable hourly throughout of the link. The aim of this research is to estimate the congestion cost of private passenger car users in central business district along the corridor of Malioboro, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The amount of the congestion cost is the difference between perceived and actual generalized cost in traffic jam condition. In this paper, only the congestion costs of private passenger car users are...

  6. Development of a life cycle cost estimating framework for oil refineries

    OpenAIRE

    Okafor, Okechukwu Peter

    2011-01-01

    This study is concerned with the understanding of some vital features of various life cycle costing methodologies and tools. Integrating these features with the refinery technical processes would assist in the development of a life cycle costing framework for oil refineries. The aim of this research is to develop a comprehensive life cycle cost estimating framework for the evaluation of not only the total cost and system effectiveness of new refineries but also the revamping, and maintenance ...

  7. Validation and Comparison of Carbon Sequestration Project Cost Models with Project Cost Data Obtained from the Southwest Partnership

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert Lee; Reid Grigg; Brian McPherson

    2011-04-15

    Obtaining formal quotes and engineering conceptual designs for carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) sequestration sites and facilities is costly and time-consuming. Frequently, when looking at potential locations, managers, engineers and scientists are confronted with multiple options, but do not have the expertise or the information required to quickly obtain a general estimate of what the costs will be without employing an engineering firm. Several models for carbon compression, transport and/or injection have been published that are designed to aid in determining the cost of sequestration projects. A number of these models are used in this study, including models by J. Ogden, MIT's Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies Program Model, the Environmental Protection Agency and others. This report uses the information and data available from several projects either completed, in progress, or conceptualized by the Southwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) to determine the best approach to estimate a project's cost. The data presented highlights calculated versus actual costs. This data is compared to the results obtained by applying several models for each of the individual projects with actual cost. It also offers methods to systematically apply the models to future projects of a similar scale. Last, the cost risks associated with a project of this scope are discussed, along with ways that have been and could be used to mitigate these risks.

  8. Estimating health damage cost from secondary sulfate particles - a case study of Hunan Province,China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAO Ji-ming; LI Ji; YE Xue-mei; ZHU Tian-le

    2003-01-01

    China's coal-dominated energy pattern has resulted in large amount of SO2 emissions. Estimate of the sulfur-related health damage cost is necessary to help perform systematic cost-benefit analysis and set national energy and emissions control priorities. Current researches were confined to gaseous SO2 in urban areas; however, secondary sulfate (SO42-) particles can exert serious impact in a wider region. Based on the concept of "intake fraction", CALPUFF long-range dispersion model and 180 sample emission sources, multiple regression equation was obtained with good correlation(r=0.85), which illustrates that populations were key parameters to determine intake fraction but source characteristics were insignificant. Based on the formula and the population distribution data, county-level intake fractions were mapped for Hunan Province(range: 1.1×10-6-3.2×10-6) of China. A combination of county-level SO2 emissions with the intake fractions yields a total 1.98 tons of sulfate(SO42-) inhalation, and resulting total health damage cost to be 0.76(willingness to pay approach) or 0.16(human capital approach) billion USD in 1997, about 2.1% or 0.45% of GDP in Hunan in 1997. Average health damage cost per ton of SO2 emission is 930(willingness to pay approach) or 200 USD(human capital approach). The results demonstrated that more stringent regulation should be forced.

  9. INTEGRATED COST MODEL FOR IMPROVING THE PRODUCTION IN COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Hajduova

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: All processes in the company play important role in ensuring functional integrated management system. We point out the importance of need for a systematic approach to the use of quantitative, but especially statistical methods for modelling the cost of the improvement activities that are part of an integrated management system. Development of integrated management systems worldwide leads towards building of systematic procedures of implementation maintenance and improvement of all systems according to the requirements of all the sides involved.Methodology: Statistical evaluation of the economic indicators of improvement costs and the need for a systematic approach to their management in terms of integrated management systems have become a key role also in the management of processes in the company Cu Drôt, a.s. The aim of this publication is to highlight the importance of proper implementation of statistical methods in the process of improvement costs management in the integrated management system of current market conditions and document the legitimacy of a systematic approach in the area of monitoring and analysing indicators of improvement with the aim of the efficient process management of company. We provide specific example of the implementation of appropriate statistical methods in the production of copper wire in a company Cu Drôt, a.s. This publication also aims to create a model for the estimation of integrated improvement costs, which through the use of statistical methods in the company Cu Drôt, a.s. is used to support decision-making on improving efficiency.Findings: In the present publication, a method for modelling the improvement process, by an integrated manner, is proposed. It is a method in which the basic attributes of the improvement in quality, safety and environment are considered and synergistically combined in the same improvement project. The work examines the use of sophisticated quantitative, especially

  10. Survey of State-Level Cost and Benefit Estimates of Renewable Portfolio Standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heeter, J.; Barbose, G.; Bird, L.; Weaver, S.; Flores-Espino, F.; Kuskova-Burns, K.; Wiser, R.

    2014-05-01

    Most renewable portfolio standards (RPS) have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS costs and benefits is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. This study provides an overview of methods used to estimate RPS compliance costs and benefits, based on available data and estimates issued by utilities and regulators. Over the 2010-2012 period, average incremental RPS compliance costs in the United States were equivalent to 0.8% of retail electricity rates, although substantial variation exists around this average, both from year-to-year and across states. The methods used by utilities and regulators to estimate incremental compliance costs vary considerably from state to state and a number of states are currently engaged in processes to refine and standardize their approaches to RPS cost calculation. The report finds that state assessments of RPS benefits have most commonly attempted to quantitatively assess avoided emissions and human health benefits, economic development impacts, and wholesale electricity price savings. Compared to the summary of RPS costs, the summary of RPS benefits is more limited, as relatively few states have undertaken detailed benefits estimates, and then only for a few types of potential policy impacts. In some cases, the same impacts may be captured in the assessment of incremental costs. For these reasons, and because methodologies and level of rigor vary widely, direct comparisons between the estimates of benefits and costs are challenging.

  11. Software Cost and Schedule Estimating: A Process Improvement Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-05-01

    sponsorship for the ICAM (Integrated Computer Aided Manufacturing) program. Two other models are IDEFIX (ICAM Definition Method 1-extended), for logical data... IDEFIX A modeling method that views a system by studying the information it contains IDEF2 A modeling method that views the time-varying behavior of a

  12. Outlier Rejecting Multirate Model for State Estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Wavelet transform was introduced to detect and eliminate outliers in time-frequency domain. The outlier rejection and multirate information extraction were initially incorporated by wavelet transform, a new outlier rejecting multirate model for state estimation was proposed. The model is applied to state estimation with interacting multiple model, as the outlier is eliminated and more reasonable multirate information is extracted, the estimation accuracy is greatly enhanced. The simulation results prove that the new model is robust to outliers and the estimation performance is significantly improved.

  13. Using Intelligent Techniques in Construction Project Cost Estimation: 10-Year Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelrahman Osman Elfaki

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation is the most important preliminary process in any construction project. Therefore, construction cost estimation has the lion’s share of the research effort in construction management. In this paper, we have analysed and studied proposals for construction cost estimation for the last 10 years. To implement this survey, we have proposed and applied a methodology that consists of two parts. The first part concerns data collection, for which we have chosen special journals as sources for the surveyed proposals. The second part concerns the analysis of the proposals. To analyse each proposal, the following four questions have been set. Which intelligent technique is used? How have data been collected? How are the results validated? And which construction cost estimation factors have been used? From the results of this survey, two main contributions have been produced. The first contribution is the defining of the research gap in this area, which has not been fully covered by previous proposals of construction cost estimation. The second contribution of this survey is the proposal and highlighting of future directions for forthcoming proposals, aimed ultimately at finding the optimal construction cost estimation. Moreover, we consider the second part of our methodology as one of our contributions in this paper. This methodology has been proposed as a standard benchmark for construction cost estimation proposals.

  14. Revised cost savings estimate with uncertainty for enhanced sludge washing of underground storage tank waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeMuth, S.

    1998-09-01

    Enhanced Sludge Washing (ESW) has been selected to reduce the amount of sludge-based underground storage tank (UST) high-level waste at the Hanford site. During the past several years, studies have been conducted to determine the cost savings derived from the implementation of ESW. The tank waste inventory and ESW performance continues to be revised as characterization and development efforts advance. This study provides a new cost savings estimate based upon the most recent inventory and ESW performance revisions, and includes an estimate of the associated cost uncertainty. Whereas the author`s previous cost savings estimates for ESW were compared against no sludge washing, this study assumes the baseline to be simple water washing which more accurately reflects the retrieval activity along. The revised ESW cost savings estimate for all UST waste at Hanford is $6.1 B {+-} $1.3 B within 95% confidence. This is based upon capital and operating cost savings, but does not include development costs. The development costs are assumed negligible since they should be at least an order of magnitude less than the savings. The overall cost savings uncertainty was derived from process performance uncertainties and baseline remediation cost uncertainties, as determined by the author`s engineering judgment.

  15. Activity based costing model for inventory valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vineet Chouhan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Activity-Based-Model (ABC is used for the purpose of significant improvement for overhead accounting systems by providing the best information required for managerial decision. This pa-per discusses implacability of ABC technique on inventory valuation as a management account-ing innovation. In order to prove the applicability of ABC for inventory control a material driven medium-sized and privately owned company from engineering (iron and steel industry is select-ed and by analysis of its production process and its material dependency and use of indirect in-ventory, an ABC model is explored for better inventory control. The case revealed that the ne-cessity of ABC in the area of inventory control is significant. The company is not only able to increase its quality of decision but also it can significantly analyze its cost of direct material cost, valuation of direct material and use its implications for better decision making.

  16. Efficient Estimation in Heteroscedastic Varying Coefficient Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanhua Wei

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers statistical inference for the heteroscedastic varying coefficient model. We propose an efficient estimator for coefficient functions that is more efficient than the conventional local-linear estimator. We establish asymptotic normality for the proposed estimator and conduct some simulation to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

  17. Estimating Canopy Dark Respiration for Crop Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monje Mejia, Oscar Alberto

    2014-01-01

    Crop production is obtained from accurate estimates of daily carbon gain.Canopy gross photosynthesis (Pgross) can be estimated from biochemical models of photosynthesis using sun and shaded leaf portions and the amount of intercepted photosyntheticallyactive radiation (PAR).In turn, canopy daily net carbon gain can be estimated from canopy daily gross photosynthesis when canopy dark respiration (Rd) is known.

  18. Estimating the costs of implementing the rotavirus vaccine in the national immunisation programme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Lizell B; Ustrup, Marte; Hansen, Kristian S

    2014-01-01

    in the national immunisation programme of a low-income country. Furthermore, the aim was to examine the relative contribution of different components to the total cost. METHODS: Following the World Health Organization guidelines, we estimated the resource use and costs associated with rotavirus vaccine......OBJECTIVES: Worldwide, rotavirus infections cause approximately 453,000 child deaths annually. Two licensed vaccines could be life- and cost-saving in low-income countries where the disease burden is highest. The aim of our study was to estimate the total cost of implementing the rotavirus vaccine...... implementation, using Malawi as a case. The cost analysis was undertaken from a governmental perspective. All costs were calculated for a 5-years period (2012-2016) and discounted at 5%. The value of key input parameters was varied in a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The total cost of rotavirus vaccine...

  19. Estimation of Congestion Cost of Private Passenger Car Users in Malioboro, Yogyakarta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutomo H.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Congestion is the condition when the hourly traffic demand exceeds the maximum sustainable hourly throughout of the link. The aim of this research is to estimate the congestion cost of private passenger car users in central business district along the corridor of Malioboro, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The amount of the congestion cost is the difference between perceived and actual generalized cost in traffic jam condition. In this paper, only the congestion costs of private passenger car users are estimated, as they are expected to shift to buses. The generalized costs from origin zone i to destination zone j consist of vehicle operating cost, travel time cost, and pollution cost. This study shows that while the perceived generalized cost for private cars at Central Business District (CBD Malioboro is IDR 3101.00 per trip, the actual generalized cost in traffic jam condition is IDR 5802.00 per trip, giving the estimation of congestion cost in CBD Malioboro for private passenger car users as IDR 2701.00 per trip.

  20. An Evaluation of the Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools (ACEIT) System

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-09-01

    C~4p DTIC S ELECTE fl JAN12 19 .1R ~OF S%. B -U AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Caroline L...Ohio go 91 022 AFIT/GCA/LSQ/89S-5 AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Caroline L. Hanson Major, USAF...Department of Defense. AFIT/GCA/LSQ/89S-5 AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Presented to the

  1. Benefit Estimation Model for Tourist Spaceflights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goehlich, Robert A.

    2003-01-01

    It is believed that the only potential means for significant reduction of the recurrent launch cost, which results in a stimulation of human space colonization, is to make the launcher reusable, to increase its reliability, and to make it suitable for new markets such as mass space tourism. But such space projects, that have long range aspects are very difficult to finance, because even politicians would like to see a reasonable benefit during their term in office, because they want to be able to explain this investment to the taxpayer. This forces planners to use benefit models instead of intuitive judgement to convince sceptical decision-makers to support new investments in space. Benefit models provide insights into complex relationships and force a better definition of goals. A new approach is introduced in the paper that allows to estimate the benefits to be expected from a new space venture. The main objective why humans should explore space is determined in this study to ``improve the quality of life''. This main objective is broken down in sub objectives, which can be analysed with respect to different interest groups. Such interest groups are the operator of a space transportation system, the passenger, and the government. For example, the operator is strongly interested in profit, while the passenger is mainly interested in amusement, while the government is primarily interested in self-esteem and prestige. This leads to different individual satisfactory levels, which are usable for the optimisation process of reusable launch vehicles.

  2. Cost estimate of hospital stays for premature newborns in a public tertiary hospital in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Maria Desgualdo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To estimate the direct costs of hospital stays for premature newborns in the Interlagos Hospital and Maternity Center in São Paulo, Brazil and to assess the difference between the amount reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System and the real cost of care for each premature newborn. METHODS: A cost-estimate study in which hospital and professional costs were estimated for premature infants born at 22 to 36 weeks gestation during the calendar year of 2004 and surviving beyond one hour of age. Direct costs included hospital services, professional care, diagnoses and therapy, orthotics, prosthetics, special materials, and blood products. Costs were estimated using tables published by the Unified Health System and the Brasindice as well as the list of medical procedures provided by the Brazilian Classification of Medical Procedures. RESULTS: The average direct cost of care for initial hospitalization of a premature newborn in 2004 was $2,386 USD. Total hospital expenses and professional services for all premature infants in this hospital were $227,000 and $69,500 USD, respectively. The costs for diagnostic testing and blood products for all premature infants totaled $22,440 and $1,833 USD. The daily average cost of a premature newborn weighing less than 1,000 g was $115 USD, and the daily average cost of a premature newborn weighing more than 2,500 g was $89 USD. Amounts reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System corresponded to only 27.42% of the real cost of care. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of hospital stays for premature newborns was much greater than the amount reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System. The highest costs corresponded to newborns with lower birth weight. Hospital costs progressively and discretely decreased as the newborns' weight increased.

  3. Multicriteria Estimated Cost of Equity Capital Estimación multicriterio del costo de capital patrimonial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Gutiérrez Betancur

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the cost of equity capital is a key input to the capital budgeting  process when the firm uses internal financing. Financial analyst and managers usually utilize the CAPM to estimate the cost of equity which requires both measurement of  the market risk premium and estimation of beta. For publicly traded firms, calculating the cost of equity is entirely based on information from the financial markets. Non traded firms and small businesses do not have sufficient market based information. This article proposes a multicriteria model to determine the cost of equity for non traded firms. The Analytic Hierarchy Process developed by Thomas Saaty is the proposed methodology for deriving relative priorities of tangible and intangible corporate risk factors. The model requires business managers to identify the relevant information sources for the required input data. The inconsistencies checking mechanism within the AHP model allows management to identify inconsistencies, to revise prior judgments and to synthesize coherently.ResumenLa estimación del costo del capital propio es un elemento clave en el proceso de presupuestación de capital. Analistas y gerentes financieros utilizan el CAPM para estimar el costo del patrimonio, el cual requiere tanto la medición de la prima de riesgo del mercado como la estimación de beta. En el caso de compañías públicamente cotizadas y bursátiles, el cálculo del costo del patrimonio se basa totalmente en la información disponible en los mercados financieros. Las firmas no transadas en bolsa no cuentan con suficiente información de mercado que permita construir un comparable exactamente válido. Este artículo propone un modelo multicriterio para determinar el costo del capital propio de compañías no transadas en bolsa. El Proceso Analítico de Jerarquías desarrollado por Thomas Saaty soporta la metodología propuesta para derivar prioridades relativas de factores de riesgo corporativos

  4. A Methodology for Software Cost Estimation Using Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-09-03

    The correlation coefficient, R-squared, of 0.726 indicates that this estimate has a fairly strong relationship with the actual project effort. Why...networks could be considered truly accurate, the results of this experiment indicate that networks are worth strong consideration. The best indication that...ExpOneM 1.20 1.12 1.05 (B" ehm , 1981.P& 117) This comparison between the genetic algorithm derived values and Boehm’s values for the coefficients and

  5. PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF ENGINEERING TURBULENCE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钱炜祺; 蔡金狮

    2001-01-01

    A parameter estimation algorithm is introduced and used to determine the parameters in the standard k-ε two equation turbulence model (SKE). It can be found from the estimation results that although the parameter estimation method is an effective method to determine model parameters, it is difficult to obtain a set of parameters for SKE to suit all kinds of separated flow and a modification of the turbulence model structure should be considered. So, a new nonlinear k-ε two-equation model (NNKE) is put forward in this paper and the corresponding parameter estimation technique is applied to determine the model parameters. By implementing the NNKE to solve some engineering turbulent flows, it is shown that NNKE is more accurate and versatile than SKE. Thus, the success of NNKE implies that the parameter estimation technique may have a bright prospect in engineering turbulence model research.

  6. On Measurement of Avoidable and Unavoidable Cost of Alcohol: An Application of Method for Estimating Costs Due To Prior Consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarl, Johan; Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Ludbrook, Anne; Petrie, Dennis

    2010-01-01

    This study estimates the avoidable and unavoidable costs of alcohol-related, liver cirrhosis inpatient care, controlling for the lag structure and period of decline in disease risk. Lag structures with different lengths are applied to the exposure to risk from alcohol consumption, which allows for differentiation between avoidable and unavoidable cases due to prior consumption. A lag length of 20 (men) and 23 (women) years (expected remaining life years) gives a total cost of 592 million SEK. Given alcohol consumption is reduced to zero, 72% of cost could potentially be avoided. It is important to account for the length and structure of the risk decline following a consumption change as this substantially affects the estimates. PMID:20717547

  7. Analysis of Empirical Software Effort Estimation Models

    CERN Document Server

    Basha, Saleem

    2010-01-01

    Reliable effort estimation remains an ongoing challenge to software engineers. Accurate effort estimation is the state of art of software engineering, effort estimation of software is the preliminary phase between the client and the business enterprise. The relationship between the client and the business enterprise begins with the estimation of the software. The credibility of the client to the business enterprise increases with the accurate estimation. Effort estimation often requires generalizing from a small number of historical projects. Generalization from such limited experience is an inherently under constrained problem. Accurate estimation is a complex process because it can be visualized as software effort prediction, as the term indicates prediction never becomes an actual. This work follows the basics of the empirical software effort estimation models. The goal of this paper is to study the empirical software effort estimation. The primary conclusion is that no single technique is best for all sit...

  8. How much do disasters cost? A comparison of disaster cost estimates in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladds, Monique; Keating, Adriana; Handmer, John; Magee, Liam

    2017-04-01

    Extreme weather events in Australia are common and a large proportion of the population are exposed to such events. Therefore, there is great interest as to how these events will impact Australia's society and economy, which requires understanding the current and historical impact of disasters. Despite global efforts to record and cost disaster impacts, no standardised method of collecting and recording data retrospectively yet exists. The lack of comparability in turn produces quite different analyses of economic impacts. This paper examines five examples of aggregate cost and relative impacts of natural disasters in Australia, and comparisons between them reveal significant data shortcomings. The reliability of data sources, and the methodology employed to analyse them can have significant impacts on conclusions regarding the overall cost of disasters, the relative costs of different disaster types, and the distribution of costs across Australian states. We highlight difficulties with time series comparisons, further complicated by the interdependencies of the databases. We reiterate the need for consistent and comparable data collection and analysis, to respond to the increasing frequency and severity of disasters in Australia.

  9. The social cost of rheumatoid arthritis in Italy: the results of an estimation exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchetti, G; Bellelli, S; Mosca, M

    2014-03-14

    The objective of this study is to estimate the mean annual social cost per adult person and the total social cost of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Italy. A literature review was performed by searching primary economic studies on adults in order to collect cost data of RA in Italy in the last decade. The review results were merged with data of institutional sources for estimating - following the methodological steps of the cost of illness analysis - the social cost of RA in Italy. The mean annual social cost of RA was € 13,595 per adult patient in Italy. Affecting 259,795 persons, RA determines a social cost of € 3.5 billions in Italy. Non-medical direct cost and indirect cost represent the main cost items (48% and 31%) of the total social cost of RA in Italy. Based on these results, it appears evident that the assessment of the economic burden of RA solely based on direct medical costs evaluation gives a limited view of the phenomenon.

  10. The social cost of rheumatoid arthritis in Italy: the results of an estimation exercise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Turchetti

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to estimate the mean annual social cost per adult person and the total social cost of rheumatoid arthritis (RA in Italy. A literature review was performed by searching primary economic studies on adults in order to collect cost data of RA in Italy in the last decade. The review results were merged with data of institutional sources for estimating - following the methodological steps of the cost of illness analysis - the social cost of RA in Italy. The mean annual social cost of RA was € 13,595 per adult patient in Italy. Affecting 259,795 persons, RA determines a social cost of € 3.5 billions in Italy. Non-medical direct cost and indirect cost represent the main cost items (48% and 31% of the total social cost of RA in Italy. Based on these results, it appears evident that the assessment of the economic burden of RA solely based on direct medical costs evaluation gives a limited view of the phenomenon.

  11. Cost benchmarking of railway projects in Europe – dealing with uncertainties in cost estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trabo, Inara

    transport infrastructure projects, 9 projects out of 10 came out with budget overruns. As an example of cost overruns is the High Speed 1 in UK, the railway line between London and the British end of the Channel Tunnel. The project was delayed for 11 months and final construction costs were escalated to 80......Past experiences in the construction of high-speed railway projects demontrate either positive or negative financial outcomes of the actual project’s budget. Usually some uncertainty value is included into initial budget calculations. Uncertainty is related to the increase of material prices......, Italian projects have productive experiences in constructing and operating high-speed railway lines. The case study for this research is the first Danish high-speed railway line “The New Line Copenhagen-Ringsted”. The project’s aim is to avoid cost overruns and even make lower the final budget outcomes...

  12. Estimation of attitudes from a low-cost miniaturized inertial platform using Kalman Filter-based sensor fusion algorithm

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    N Shantha Kumar; T Jann

    2004-04-01

    Due to costs, size and mass, commercially available inertial navigation systems are not suitable for small, autonomous flying vehicles like ALEX and other UAVs. In contrast, by using modern MEMS (or of similar class) sensors, hardware costs, size and mass can be reduced substantially. However, low-cost sensors often suffer from inaccuracy and are influenced greatly by temperature variation. In this work, such inaccuracies and dependence on temperature variations have been studied, modelled and compensated in order to reach an adequate quality of measurements for the estimation of attitudes. This has been done applying a Kalman Filter-based sensor fusion algorithm that combines sensor models, error parameters and estimation scheme. Attitude estimation from low-cost sensors is first realized in a Matlab/Simulink platform and then implemented on hardware by programming the micro controller and validated. The accuracies of the estimated roll and pitch attitudes are well within the stipulated accuracy level of ±5° for the ALEX. However, the estimation of heading, which is mainly derived from the magnetometer readings, seems to be influenced greatly by the variation in local magnetic field.

  13. On parameter estimation in deformable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fisker, Rune; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    1998-01-01

    Deformable templates have been intensively studied in image analysis through the last decade, but despite its significance the estimation of model parameters has received little attention. We present a method for supervised and unsupervised model parameter estimation using a general Bayesian...... method is based on a modified version of the EM algorithm. Experimental results for a deformable template used for textile inspection are presented...

  14. Model Year 2017 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  15. Model Year 2011 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  16. Model Year 2012 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  17. Model Year 2013 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2012-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  18. Construction cost prediction model for conventional and sustainable college buildings in North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Othman Subhi Alshamrani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The literature lacks in initial cost prediction models for college buildings, especially comparing costs of sustainable and conventional buildings. A multi-regression model was developed for conceptual initial cost estimation of conventional and sustainable college buildings in North America. RS Means was used to estimate the national average of construction costs for 2014, which was subsequently utilized to develop the model. The model could predict the initial cost per square feet with two structure types made of steel and concrete. The other predictor variables were building area, number of floors and floor height. The model was developed in three major stages, such as preliminary diagnostics on data quality, model development and validation. The developed model was successfully tested and validated with real-time data.

  19. Technology Cost and Schedule Estimation (TCASE) Final Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Jon; Schaffer, Mark

    2015-01-01

    During the 2014-2015 project year, the focus of the TCASE project has shifted from collection of historical data from many sources to securing a data pipeline between TCASE and NASA's widely used TechPort system. TCASE v1.0 implements a data import solution that was achievable within the project scope, while still providing the basis for a long-term ability to keep TCASE in sync with TechPort. Conclusion: TCASE data quantity is adequate and the established data pipeline will enable future growth. Data quality is now highly dependent the quality of data in TechPort. Recommendation: Technology development organizations within NASA should continue to work closely with project/program data tracking and archiving efforts (e.g. TechPort) to ensure that the right data is being captured at the appropriate quality level. TCASE would greatly benefit, for example, if project cost/budget information was included in TechPort in the future.

  20. Estimating the indirect costs associated with the expected number of cancer cases in Mexico by 2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Delgado, Cristina; Armas-Texta, Daniel; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Meneses-García, Abelardo; Mohar-Betancourt, Alejandro

    2016-04-01

    To estimate the indirect costs generated by adults with cancer in Mexico from 2002-2020. Using information from national sources and the national cancer incidence from GLOBOCAN, we estimated income lost due to premature death (ILPD), short-term benefits (STBs), disability pensions (DPs), and opportunity costs for the carer (OCCs) generated by patients with cancer. Amounts were reported in Mexican pesos. We estimated 23 359 deaths and 216 679 new cases of cancer by 2020, which would be associated with a total indirect cost of 20.15 billion Mexican pesos. Men are expected to generate 54.9% of these costs. ILPD is expected to comprise the highest percentage of the cost (60%), followed by OCCs (22%), STBs (17%) and DPs (1%). From an economic perspective, the results emphasize the need to strengthen preventive interventions and early detection of cancer among adults to reduce its effect on the productivity of Mexico.

  1. Statistical estimation of service cracks and maintenance cost for aircraft structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.-N.

    1975-01-01

    A method is developed for the statistical estimation of the number of cracks to be repaired in service as well as the repair and the maintenance costs. The present approach accounts for the statistical distribution of the initial crack size, the statistical nature of the NDI technique used for detecting the crack, and the renewal process for the crack propagation of repaired cracks. The mean and the standard deviation of the cumulative number of cracks to be repaired are computed as a function of service time. The statistics of the costs of repair and maintenance, expressed in terms of the percentage of the cost of replacement, are estimated as a function of service time. The results of the present study provide relevant information for the decision of fleet management, the estimation of life cycle cost, and procurement specifications. The present study is essential to the design and cost optimization of aircraft structures.

  2. Selection of relevant items for decommissioning costing estimation of a PWR using fuzzy logic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteiro, Deiglys Borges; Busse, Alexander Lucas; Moreira, Joao M.L.; Maiorino, Jose Rubens, E-mail: deiglys.monteiro@ufabc.edu.br, E-mail: alexlucasb@gmail.com, E-mail: joao.moreira@ufabc.edu.br, E-mail: joserubens.maiorino@ufabc.edu.br [Universidade Federal do ABC (CECS/UFABC), Santo Andre, SP (Brazil). Centro de Engenharia, Modelagem e Ciencias Aplicadas. Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Energia e Engenharia da Energia

    2015-07-01

    The decommissioning is an important part of a nuclear power plant life cycle which may occur by technical, economical or safety reasons. Decommissioning requires carrying out a large number of tasks that should be planned in advance, involves cost evaluations, preparation of plans of activity and actual operational actions. Despite the large number of tasks, only part of them is relevant for cost estimation purpose. The technical literature and international regulatory agencies suggest a variety of methods for decommissioning cost estimation. Most of them require a very detailed knowledge of the plant and data available suitable for plants that are starting their decommissioning but not for those in the planning stage. The present work aims to apply fuzzy logic to sort out relevant items to cost estimation in order to reduce the work effort involved. The scheme uses parametric equations for specific cost items, and is applied to specific parts of the process of nuclear power plant decommissioning. (author)

  3. Update on Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Models for Ground and Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Luedtke, Alexander; West, Miranda

    2012-01-01

    Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper reports on recent revisions and improvements to our ground telescope cost model and refinements of our understanding of space telescope cost models. One interesting observation is that while space telescopes are 50X to 100X more expensive than ground telescopes, their respective scaling relationships are similar. Another interesting speculation is that the role of technology development may be different between ground and space telescopes. For ground telescopes, the data indicates that technology development tends to reduce cost by approximately 50% every 20 years. But for space telescopes, there appears to be no such cost reduction because we do not tend to re-fly similar systems. Thus, instead of reducing cost, 20 years of technology development may be required to enable a doubling of space telescope capability. Other findings include: mass should not be used to estimate cost; spacecraft and science instrument costs account for approximately 50% of total mission cost; and, integration and testing accounts for only about 10% of total mission cost.

  4. Hydropower Baseline Cost Modeling, Version 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Connor, Patrick W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Recent resource assessments conducted by the United States Department of Energy have identified significant opportunities for expanding hydropower generation through the addition of power to non-powered dams and on undeveloped stream-reaches. Additional interest exists in the powering of existing water resource infrastructure such as conduits and canals, upgrading and expanding existing hydropower facilities, and the construction new pumped storage hydropower. Understanding the potential future role of these hydropower resources in the nation’s energy system requires an assessment of the environmental and techno-economic issues associated with expanding hydropower generation. To facilitate these assessments, this report seeks to fill the current gaps in publically available hydropower cost estimating tools that can support the national-scale evaluation of hydropower resources.

  5. F-35 Sustainment: Need for Affordable Strategy, Greater Attention to Risks, and Improved Cost Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    F - 35 SUSTAINMENT Need for Affordable Strategy, Greater Attention to Risks, and Improved Cost Estimates Report...2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE F - 35 Sustainment: Need for Affordable Strategy, Greater...House of Representatives September 2014 F - 35 SUSTAINMENT Need for Affordable Strategy, Greater Attention to Risks, and Improved Cost Estimates Why

  6. Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Yoonseok Shin

    2015-01-01

    Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT) is applied to cost estimations at the early stag...

  7. Using the Black Scholes method for estimating high cost illness insurance premiums in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana Chicaíza

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This article applied the Black-Scholes option valuation formula to calculating high-cost illness reinsurance premiums in the Colombian health system. The coverage pattern used in reinsuring high-cost illnesses was replicated by means of a European call option contract. The option’s relevant variables and parameters were adapted to an insurance market context. The premium estimated by the BlackScholes method fell within the range of premiums estimated by the actuarial method.

  8. Estimating the employment and earnings costs of mental illness: recent developments in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcotte, D E; Wilcox-Gök, V

    2001-07-01

    Substantial attention has recently been focused on both the prevalence and consequences of mental illness. Generally, public interest in the costs of mental illness has been limited to the direct costs of treating the mentally ill. In this paper, we consider the magnitude and importance of a major component of the indirect costs of mental illness: employment and earnings losses. We first describe the technical difficulties involved in estimating these costs. We then describe new data and recent advances in the United States that have improved our ability to make such estimates. Our conclusions from the recent research are that each year in the United States 5-6 million workers between the ages of 16 and 54 lose, fail to seek, or cannot find employment as a consequence of mental illness. Among those who do work, we estimate that mental illness decreases annual income by an amount between $3,500 and $6,000. We then discuss an emerging challenge to the traditional method for arriving at such estimates: the friction cost approach. We describe both the conceptual and technical differences between the friction cost method and the traditional human capital approach. We conclude that while economic context has much to do with whether one relies on human capital or friction cost estimates, each can offer useful information about labor market losses due to mental illness.

  9. The cost of crime to society: new crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollister, Kathryn E; French, Michael T; Fang, Hai

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime.

  10. De-interlacing using nonlocal costs and Markov-chain-based estimation of interpolation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vedadi, Farhang; Shirani, Shahram

    2013-04-01

    A new method of de-interlacing is proposed. De-interlacing is revisited as the problem of assigning a sequence of interpolation methods (interpolators) to a sequence of missing pixels of an interlaced frame (field). With this assumption, our de-interlacing algorithm (de-interlacer), undergoes transitions from one interpolation method to another, as it moves from one missing pixel position to the horizontally adjacent missing pixel position in a missing row of a field. We assume a discrete countable-state Markov-chain model on the sequence of interpolators (Markov-chain states) which are selected from a user-defined set of candidate interpolators. An estimation of the optimum sequence of interpolators with the aforementioned Markov-chain model requires the definition of an efficient cost function as well as a global optimization technique. Our algorithm introduces for the first time using a nonlocal cost (NLC) scheme. The proposed algorithm uses the NLC to not only measure the fitness of an interpolator at a missing pixel position, but also to derive an approximation for transition matrix (TM) of the Markov-chain of interpolators. The TM in our algorithm is a frame-variate matrix, i.e., the algorithm updates the TM for each frame automatically. The algorithm finally uses a Viterbi algorithm to find the global optimum sequence of interpolators given the cost function defined and neighboring original pixels in hand. Next, we introduce a new MAP-based formulation for the estimation of the sequence of interpolators this time not by estimating the best sequence of interpolators but by successive estimations of the best interpolator at each missing pixel using Forward-Backward algorithm. Simulation results prove that, while competitive with each other on different test sequences, the proposed methods (one using Viterbi and the other Forward-Backward algorithm) are superior to state-of-the-art de-interlacing algorithms proposed recently. Finally, we propose motion

  11. Cost-effectiveness estimates for antenatal HIV testing in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rozenbaum, M.H.; Verweel, G.; Folkerts, D.K.; Dronkers, F.; Hoek, JA van den; Hartwig, N.G.; Groot, R. de; Postma, M.J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides an estimation of the lifetime health-care cost of HIV-infected children and an update of the cost-effectiveness of universal HIV-screening of pregnant women in Amsterdam (The Netherlands). During 2003-2005, we collected data concerning the prevalence of newly diagnosed HIV-infect

  12. How Much Does Intellectual Disability Really Cost? First Estimates for Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Christopher M.; Einfeld, Stewart L.; Madden, Rosamond H.; Otim, Michael; Horstead, Sian K.; Ellis, Louise A.; Emerson, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Background: Given the paucity of relevant data, this study estimates the cost of intellectual disability (ID) to families and the government in Australia. Method: Family costs were collected via the Client Service Receipt Inventory, recording information relating to service use and personal expense as a consequence of ID. Government expenditure on…

  13. Preconception care: preliminary estimates of costs and effects of smoking cessation and folic acid supplementation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerd, S. de; Polder, J.J.; Cohen-Overbeek, T.E.; Zimmermann, L.J.; Steegers, E.A.P.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess costs and effectiveness of preconception counseling for all women planning pregnancy in The Netherlands with regard to folic acid supplementation and smoking cessation counseling. STUDY DESIGN: Costs and effects were estimated based on 200,000 women approached yearly and uptake

  14. Cost-effectiveness estimates for antenatal HIV testing in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rozenbaum, M.H.; Verweel, G.; Folkerts, D.K.F.; Dronkers, F.; van den Hoek, J.A.R.; Hartwig, N.G.; de Groot, R.; Postma, M.J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides an estimation of the lifetime health-care cost of HIV-infected children and an update of the cost-effectiveness of universal HIV-screening of pregnant women in Amsterdam (The Netherlands). During 2003-2005, we collected data concerning the prevalence of newly diagnosed HIV-infect

  15. Cost-effectiveness estimates for antenatal HIV testing in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rozenbaum, M.H.; Verweel, G.; Folkerts, D.K.; Dronkers, F.; Hoek, JA van den; Hartwig, N.G.; Groot, R. de; Postma, M.J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides an estimation of the lifetime health-care cost of HIV-infected children and an update of the cost-effectiveness of universal HIV-screening of pregnant women in Amsterdam (The Netherlands). During 2003-2005, we collected data concerning the prevalence of newly diagnosed HIV-infect

  16. Two Computer Programs for Equipment Cost Estimation and Economic Evaluation of Chemical Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuri, Carlos J.; Corripio, Armando B.

    1984-01-01

    Describes two computer programs for use in process design courses: an easy-to-use equipment cost estimation program based on latest cost correlations available and an economic evaluation program which calculates two profitability indices. Comparisons between programed and hand-calculated results are included. (JM)

  17. Simple calculator to estimate the medical cost of diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Koffi; Alouki; Hélène; Delisle; Stéphane; Besan?on; Naby; Baldé; Assa; Sidibé-Traoré; Joseph; Drabo; Fran?ois; Djrolo; Jean-Claude; Mbanya; Serge; Halimi

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To design a medical cost calculator and show that diabetes care is beyond reach of the majority particularlypatients with complications.METHODS: Out-of-pocket expenditures of patients for medical treatment of type-2 diabetes were estimated based on price data collected in Benin,Burkina Faso,Guinea and Mali. A detailed protocol for realistic medical care of diabetes and its complications in the African context was defined. Care components were based on existing guidelines,published data and clinical experience. Prices were obtained in public and private health facilities. The cost calculator used Excel. The cost for basic management of uncomplicated diabetes was calculated per person and per year. Incremental costs were also computed per annum for chronic complications and per episode for acute complications. RESULTS: Wide variations of estimated care costs were observed among countries and between the public and private healthcare system. The minimum estimated cost for the treatment of uncomplicated diabetes(in the public sector) would amount to 21%-34% of the country’s gross national income per capita,26%-47% in the presence of retinopathy,and above 70% for nephropathy,the most expensive complication. CONCLUSION: The study provided objective evidence for the exorbitant medical cost of diabetes considering that no medical insurance is available in the study countries. Although the calculator only estimates the cost of inaction,it is innovative and of interest for several stakeholders.

  18. Southeast Alaska intertie dc transmission system: reconnaissance design and cost estimate. Appendix I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-11-01

    The detailed costs of the schemes are given in this Appendix. The conceptual designs of the sea electrodes for the schemes are also described. The cost estimates for the electrodes were based on these conceptual designs. A cost comparison of ac and dc transmission for 10 MW from Ketchikan to Tolstoi Bay is given along with an example outlining the procedure for selecting the optimum dc cable size.

  19. A Revision on Cost Elements of the EOQ Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asadabadi Mehdi Rajabi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of this paper is to investigate the fundamental cost elements of the traditional EOQ model and develop the model by expiring some of its unrealistic assumptions. Over the last few decades, there have been numerous studies developing the EOQ model, but the basic cost elements of the EOQ model have not been investigated efficiently. On the other hand, the capital cost of buying inventories seems to be important to be investigated separately as well as holding cost and ordering cost in the model. In this paper, the capital cost of the inventory and possible stepwise increases in holding and setup cost are taken into account to make a revised formula to compute the economic order quantity. The proposed model involves explicitly the capital cost of buying the inventories in the EOQ model to ensure the decision makers that their financial concerns are considered in the revised model and the new order quantity results the minimum total cost.

  20. Enzymatic corn wet milling: engineering process and cost model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McAloon Andrew J

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Enzymatic corn wet milling (E-milling is a process derived from conventional wet milling for the recovery and purification of starch and co-products using proteases to eliminate the need for sulfites and decrease the steeping time. In 2006, the total starch production in USA by conventional wet milling equaled 23 billion kilograms, including modified starches and starches used for sweeteners and ethanol production 1. Process engineering and cost models for an E-milling process have been developed for a processing plant with a capacity of 2.54 million kg of corn per day (100,000 bu/day. These models are based on the previously published models for a traditional wet milling plant with the same capacity. The E-milling process includes grain cleaning, pretreatment, enzymatic treatment, germ separation and recovery, fiber separation and recovery, gluten separation and recovery and starch separation. Information for the development of the conventional models was obtained from a variety of technical sources including commercial wet milling companies, industry experts and equipment suppliers. Additional information for the present models was obtained from our own experience with the development of the E-milling process and trials in the laboratory and at the pilot plant scale. The models were developed using process and cost simulation software (SuperPro Designer® and include processing information such as composition and flow rates of the various process streams, descriptions of the various unit operations and detailed breakdowns of the operating and capital cost of the facility. Results Based on the information from the model, we can estimate the cost of production per kilogram of starch using the input prices for corn, enzyme and other wet milling co-products. The work presented here describes the E-milling process and compares the process, the operation and costs with the conventional process. Conclusion The E-milling process

  1. Costing support and cost control in manufacturing. A cost estimation tool applied in the sheet metal domain.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinke, ten Erik

    2002-01-01

    In the product development cycle several engineering tasks like design, process planning and production planning have to be executed. The execution of these tasks mainly involves information processing and decision-making. Because costs is an important factor in manufacturing, adequate information a

  2. Costing support and cost control in manufacturing. A cost estimation tool applied in the sheet metal domain.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ten Brinke, E.

    2002-01-01

    In the product development cycle several engineering tasks like design, process planning and production planning have to be executed. The execution of these tasks mainly involves information processing and decision-making. Because costs is an important factor in manufacturing, adequate information

  3. Parameter Estimation, Model Reduction and Quantum Filtering

    CERN Document Server

    Chase, Bradley A

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation explores the topics of parameter estimation and model reduction in the context of quantum filtering. Chapters 2 and 3 provide a review of classical and quantum probability theory, stochastic calculus and filtering. Chapter 4 studies the problem of quantum parameter estimation and introduces the quantum particle filter as a practical computational method for parameter estimation via continuous measurement. Chapter 5 applies these techniques in magnetometry and studies the estimator's uncertainty scalings in a double-pass atomic magnetometer. Chapter 6 presents an efficient feedback controller for continuous-time quantum error correction. Chapter 7 presents an exact model of symmetric processes of collective qubit systems.

  4. Estimating the cost of treating patients with liver cirrhosis at the Mexican Social Security Institute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiroz, María Esther; Flores, Yvonne N; Aracena, Belkis; Granados-García, Víctor; Salmerón, Jorge; Pérez, Ruth; Cabrera, Guillermo; Bastani, Roshan

    2010-01-01

    To estimate the annual cost of treating patients with cirrhosis at the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS per its abbreviation in Spanish). The annual cost of treating three stages of cirrhosis (Child-Pugh A, Child-Pugh B and Child-Pugh C) was estimated using micro-costing techniques and medical experts. These results were compared and contrasted with prices reported by IMSS. The annual cost of treatment, in USA dollars, by Child-Pugh stage was: a) micro-costing results: $1110.17 stage A, $549.55 stage B and $348.16 stage C; b) opinion of medical experts: $1 633.64, $6564.04 and $19660.35, respectively; and c) IMSS costs: $4269.00, $16949.63 and $30249.25, respectively. The cost of treating patients with cirrhosis is considerable, and costs increase as the disease worsens. Cost estimates vary depending on the source of information, and the methodology used. There are discrepancies between the procedures reported in medical records and treatment recommendations by IMSS liver experts.

  5. On the Economic Order Quantity Model With Transportation Costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.I. Birbil (Ilker); K. Bulbul; J.B.G. Frenk (Hans); H.M. Mulder (Henry)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractWe consider an economic order quantity type model with unit out-of-pocket holding costs, unit opportunity costs of holding, fixed ordering costs and general transportation costs. For these models, we analyze the associated optimization problem and derive an easy procedure for determining

  6. Estimating costs of traffic crashes and crime: tools for informed decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streff, F M; Molnar, L J; Cohen, M A; Miller, T R; Rossman, S B

    1992-01-01

    Traffic crashes and crime both impose significant economic and social burdens through injury and loss of life, as well as property damage and loss. Efforts to reduce crashes and crime often result in competing demands on limited public resources. Comparable and up-to-date cost data on crashes and crime contribute to informed decisions about allocation of these resources in important ways. As a first step, cost data provide information about the magnitude of the problems of crashes and crime by allowing us to estimate associated dollar losses to society. More importantly, cost data on crashes and crime are essential to evaluating costs and benefits of various policy alternatives that compete for resources. This paper presents the first comparable comprehensive cost estimates for crashes and crime and applies them to crash and crime incidence data for Michigan to generate dollar losses for the state. An example illustrates how cost estimates can be used to evaluate costs and benefits of crash-reduction and crime-reduction policies in making resource allocation decisions. Traffic crash and selected index crime incidence data from the calendar year 1988 were obtained from the Michigan State Police. Costs for crashes and index crimes were generated and applied to incidence data to estimate dollar losses from crashes and index crimes for the state of Michigan. In 1988, index crimes in Michigan resulted in $0.8 billion in monetary costs and $2.4 billion in total monetary and nonmonetary quality-of-life costs (using the willingness-to-pay approach). Traffic crashes in Michigan resulted in $2.3 billion in monetary costs and $7.1 billion in total monetary and nonmonetary quality-of-life costs, nearly three times the costs of index crimes. Based on dollar losses to the state, the magnitude of the problem of traffic crashes clearly exceeded that of index crimes in Michigan in 1988. From a policy perspective, summing the total dollar losses from crashes or crime is of less

  7. Mineral resources estimation based on block modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargawa, Waterman Sulistyana; Amri, Nur Ali

    2016-02-01

    The estimation in this paper uses three kinds of block models of nearest neighbor polygon, inverse distance squared and ordinary kriging. The techniques are weighting scheme which is based on the principle that block content is a linear combination of the grade data or the sample around the block being estimated. The case study in Pongkor area, here is gold-silver resource modeling that allegedly shaped of quartz vein as a hydrothermal process of epithermal type. Resources modeling includes of data entry, statistical and variography analysis of topography and geological model, the block model construction, estimation parameter, presentation model and tabulation of mineral resources. Skewed distribution, here isolated by robust semivariogram. The mineral resources classification generated in this model based on an analysis of the kriging standard deviation and number of samples which are used in the estimation of each block. Research results are used to evaluate the performance of OK and IDS estimator. Based on the visual and statistical analysis, concluded that the model of OK gives the estimation closer to the data used for modeling.

  8. Estimating Lifetime Costs of Social Care: A Bayesian Approach Using Linked Administrative Datasets from Three Geographical Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steventon, Adam; Roberts, Adam

    2015-12-01

    We estimated lifetime costs of publicly funded social care, covering services such as residential and nursing care homes, domiciliary care and meals. Like previous studies, we constructed microsimulation models. However, our transition probabilities were estimated from longitudinal, linked administrative health and social care datasets, rather than from survey data. Administrative data were obtained from three geographical areas of England, and we estimated transition probabilities in each of these sites flexibly using Bayesian methods. This allowed us to quantify regional variation as well as the impact of structural and parameter uncertainty regarding the transition probabilities. Expected lifetime costs at age 65 were £20,200-27,000 for men and £38,700-49,000 for women, depending on which of the three areas was used to calibrate the model. Thus, patterns of social care spending differed markedly between areas, with mean costs varying by almost £10,000 (25%) across the lifetime for people of the same age and gender. Allowing for structural and parameter uncertainty had little impact on expected lifetime costs, but slightly increased the risk of very high costs, which will have implications for insurance products for social care through increasing requirements for capital reserves.

  9. Leveraging Real-World Evidence in Disease-Management Decision-Making with a Total Cost of Care Estimator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thanh-Nghia; Trocio, Jeffrey; Kowal, Stacey; Ferrufino, Cheryl P; Munakata, Julie; South, Dell

    2016-12-01

    Health management is becoming increasingly complex, given a range of care options and the need to balance costs and quality. The ability to measure and understand drivers of costs is critical for healthcare organizations to effectively manage their patient populations. Healthcare decision makers can leverage real-world evidence to explore the value of disease-management interventions in shifting total cost trends. To develop a real-world, evidence-based estimator that examines the impact of disease-management interventions on the total cost of care (TCoC) for a patient population with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data were collected from a patient-level real-world evidence data set that uses the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database. Pharmacy and medical claims for patients meeting the inclusion or exclusion criteria were combined in longitudinal cohorts with a 180-day preindex and 360-day follow-up period. Descriptive statistics, such as mean and median patient costs and event rates, were derived from a real-world evidence analysis and were used to populate the base-case estimates within the TCoC estimator, an exploratory economic model that was designed to estimate the potential impact of several disease-management activities on the TCoC for a patient population with NVAF. Using Microsoft Excel, the estimator is designed to compare current direct costs of medical care to projected costs by varying assumptions on the impact of disease-management activities and applying the associated changes in cost trends to the affected populations. Disease-management levers are derived from literature-based concepts affecting costs along the NVAF disease continuum. The use of the estimator supports analyses across 4 US geographic regions, age, cost types, and care settings during 1 year. All patients included in the study were continuously enrolled in their health plan (within the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database) between July 1, 2010, and June 30

  10. The use of cluster analysis techniques in spaceflight project cost risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, G.; Ebbeler, D.; Jorgensen, E.

    2003-01-01

    Project cost risk is the uncertainty in final project cost, contingent on initial budget, requirements and schedule. For a proposed mission, a dynamic simulation model relying for some of its input on a simple risk elicitation is used to identify and quantify systemic cost risk.

  11. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  12. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-02-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  13. Optimal pricing decision model based on activity-based costing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王福胜; 常庆芳

    2003-01-01

    In order to find out the applicability of the optimal pricing decision model based on conventional costbehavior model after activity-based costing has given strong shock to the conventional cost behavior model andits assumptions, detailed analyses have been made using the activity-based cost behavior and cost-volume-profitanalysis model, and it is concluded from these analyses that the theory behind the construction of optimal pri-cing decision model is still tenable under activity-based costing, but the conventional optimal pricing decisionmodel must be modified as appropriate to the activity-based costing based cost behavior model and cost-volume-profit analysis model, and an optimal pricing decision model is really a product pricing decision model construc-ted by following the economic principle of maximizing profit.

  14. Amplitude Models for Discrimination and Yield Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, William Scott [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This seminar presentation describes amplitude models and yield estimations that look at the data in order to inform legislation. The following points were brought forth in the summary: global models that will predict three-component amplitudes (R-T-Z) were produced; Q models match regional geology; corrected source spectra can be used for discrimination and yield estimation; three-component data increase coverage and reduce scatter in source spectral estimates; three-component efforts must include distance-dependent effects; a community effort on instrument calibration is needed.

  15. Assessing the accuracy of wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA) fire size and suppression cost estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey H. Donovan; Peter. Noordijk

    2005-01-01

    To determine the optimal suppression strategy for escaped wildfires, federal land managers are requiredto conduct a wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA). As part of the WFSA process, fire managers estimate final fire size and suppression costs. Estimates from 58 WFSAs conducted during the 2002 fire season are compared to actual outcomes. Results indicate that...

  16. Estimating the Effect of Intravenous Acetaminophen for Postoperative Pain Management on Length of Stay and Inpatient Hospital Costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, E Eve; Pham, An; Woldman, Robert L; Spiegelman, Andrew; Strassels, Scott A; Wan, George J; Zimmerman, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    The provision of safe, effective, cost-efficient perioperative inpatient acute pain management is an important concern among clinicians and administrators within healthcare institutions. Overreliance on opioid monotherapy in this setting continues to present health risks for patients and increase healthcare costs resulting from preventable adverse events. The goal of this study was to model length of stay (LOS), potential opioid-related complications, and costs for patients reducing opioid use and adding intravenous acetaminophen (IV APAP) for management of postoperative pain. Data for this study were de-identified inpatient encounters from The Advisory Board Company across 297 hospitals from 2012-2014, containing 2,238,433 encounters (IV APAP used in 12.1%). Encounters for adults ≥18 years of age admitted for cardiovascular, colorectal, general, obstetrics and gynecology, orthopedics, or spine surgery were included. The effects of reducing opioids and adding IV APAP were estimated using hierarchical statistical models. Costs were estimated by multiplying modeled reductions in LOS or complication rates by observed average volumes for medium-sized facilities, and by average cost per day or per complication (LOS: US$2383/day; complications: derived from observed charges). Across all surgery types, LOS showed an average reduction of 18.5% (10.7-32.0%) for the modeled scenario of reducing opioids by one level (high to medium, medium to low, or low to none) and adding IV APAP, with an associated total LOS-related cost savings of $4.5 M. Modeled opioid-related complication rates showed similar improvements, averaging a reduction of 28.7% (5.4-44.0%) with associated cost savings of $0.2 M. In aggregate, costs decreased by an estimated $4.7 M for a medium-sized hospital. The study design demonstrates associations only and cannot establish causal relationships. The cost impact of LOS is modeled based on observed data. This investigation indicates that reducing opioid

  17. Estimation of Wind Turbulence Using Spectral Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The production and loading of wind farms are significantly influenced by the turbulence of the flowing wind field. Estimation of turbulence allows us to optimize the performance of the wind farm. Turbulence estimation is; however, highly challenging due to the chaotic behavior of the wind....... In this paper, a method is presented for estimation of the turbulence. The spectral model of the wind is used in order to provide the estimations. The suggested estimation approach is applied to a case study in which the objective is to estimate wind turbulence at desired points using the measurements of wind...... speed outside the wind field. The results show that the method is able to provide estimations which explain more than 50% of the wind turbulence from the distance of about 300 meters....

  18. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  19. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  20. The Estimation and Inclusion of Presenteeism Costs in Applied Economic Evaluation: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kigozi, Jesse; Jowett, Sue; Lewis, Martyn; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

    2017-03-01

    Given the significant costs of reduced productivity (presenteeism) in comparison to absenteeism, and overall societal costs, presenteeism has a potentially important role to play in economic evaluations. However, these costs are often excluded. The objective of this study is to review applied cost of illness studies and economic evaluations to identify valuation methods used for, and impact of including presenteeism costs in practice. A structured systematic review was carried out to explore (i) the extent to which presenteeism has been applied in cost of illness studies and economic evaluations and (ii) the overall impact of including presenteeism on overall costs and outcomes. Potential articles were identified by searching Medline, PsycINFO and NHS EED databases. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from economic evaluations and cost of illness studies incorporating presenteeism costs. A total of 28 studies were included in the systematic review which also demonstrated that presenteeism costs are rarely included in full economic evaluations. Estimation and monetisation methods differed between the instruments. The impact of disease on presenteeism whilst in paid work is high. The potential impact of presenteeism costs needs to be highlighted and greater consideration should be given to including these in economic evaluations and cost of illness studies. The importance of including presenteeism costs when conducting economic evaluation from a societal perspective should be emphasised in national economic guidelines and more methodological work is required to improve the practical application of presenteeism instruments to generate productivity cost estimates. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.