WorldWideScience

Sample records for corrosion risk assessment

  1. A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.

    2009-01-01

    The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

  2. Corrosion Assessment by Using Risk-Based Inspection Method for Petrochemical Plant - Practical Experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Song Chun; Song, Ki Hun

    2009-01-01

    Corrosion assessment has a number of uses but the use considered here is as a precursor to Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) planning. Systematic methods consisting of technical modules of RBI program were used to assess the effect of specific corrosion mechanism on the probability of failure in equipment of petrochemical plants. Especially in part of the damage and corrosion assessment, screening step involved evaluating the combinations of process conditions and construction materials for each equipment item in order to determine which damage mechanisms are potentially active. For general internal corrosion, either API 510 or API 570 was applied as the damage rate in the calculation to determine the remaining life and inspection frequency. In some cases, a measured rate of corrosion may not be available. The technical modules of RBI program employ default values for corrosion, typically derived from published data or from experience with similar processes, for use until inspection results are available. This paper describes the case study of corrosion and damage assessment by using RBI methodology in petrochemical plant. Specifically, this paper reports the methodology and the results of its application to the petrochemical units using the KGS-RBI TM program, developed by the Korea Gas Safety Corporation to suit Korean situation in conformity with API 581 Codes

  3. Digital mapping of corrosion risk in coastal urban areas using remote sensing and structural condition assessment: case study in cyprus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neocleous Kyriacos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric corrosion is one of the main factors leading to performance deterioration of reinforced concrete buildings; and, hence, periodic structural condition monitoring is required to assess and repair the adverse effects of corrosion. However, this can become a cumbersome and expensive task to undertake for large populations of buildings, scattered in large urban areas. To optimize the use of available resources, appropriate tools are required for the assessment of corrosion risk of reinforced concrete construction. This paper proposes a framework for the production of digital corrosion risk maps for urban areas; Cyprus was used as a case study. This framework explored multi-temporal satellite remote sensing data from the Landsat sensors as well as corrosion risk factors derived from the results of a recently completed research project, entitled “STEELCOR”. This framework was used to develop two corrosion risk scenarios within Geographical Information Systems, and to produce corrosion risk maps for three coastal cities of Cyprus. The thematic maps indicated that, for slight corrosion damage, the distance of reinforced concrete buildings from the coast was more influential than the building age. While, for significant corrosion damage, the maps indicated that the age of RC buildings was more influential than the distance from the coast.

  4. Results of a recent crud/corrosion fuel risk assessment at a U.S. PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamanna, Larry; Pop, Mike; Gregorich, Carola; Harne, Richard; Jones, John

    2012-09-01

    In order to avoid potential fuel reliability issues, specifically crud-related issues, it is necessary to achieve and maintain a crud safe environment. Therefore, the ability to confidently predict risks associated with crud deposition on fuel becomes critically important. AREVA is applying its cutting-edge PWR Fuel Crud (Primary System corrosion products)/Corrosion Tools, i.e. COBRA-FLX (subchannel-by-subchannel T/H tool) coupled with FDIC (crud deposition tool) to subsequently perform PWR Fuel Crud /Corrosion risk assessments for operating plants in the US. After describing the method, the result of one of these assessments is presented for an operating plant in the US that has experienced recent crud observations/concerns. Both Crud Induced Localized Corrosion (CILC) and Crud Induced Power Shift (CIPS) risk assessment methods, as applied to the upcoming cycle (Cycle N), were compared to the current/on-going cycle (Cycle N-1) and to the previous cycle (Cycle N-2). The results allowed the Utility to consider crud risk management changes associated with the upcoming cycle (Cycle-N). Benchmarking of the AREVA tools, using the plant-specific crud information gained from the crud sampling/characterization for the Unit will be presented. The CIPS analysis references boron loading and the amount of insoluble iron-nickel-borates predicted for Cycles N-2, N-1, and N. The results of the CILC evaluation reference FDIC-predicted crud thickness, cladding temperature under deposit, evolution of CILC bearing species and lithium concentration in the zirconium oxide layer. The approach taken by AREVA during the evaluation was to consider both 'risk' and 'margin' to fuel performance impact caused by crud deposits. The conclusion of the assessment, illustrated by the results presented in this paper, is that the example Plant has sufficient margin in worst case conditions for CIPS and CILC risk in Cycle N, based on Cycle N-1 and Cycle N-2 conditions and behavior

  5. Assessment of risk associated with long-term corrosion of alloy 22 and Ti-7 in the potential yucca mountain high-level nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, T.M.; Pensado, O.; Dunn, D.

    2004-01-01

    period of the repository. The evaporation of groundwater or of a thin film of water adsorbed on the WP surface mixing with dust would form mixed salts on the WP surface. High temperature deliquescence relative humidity from the mixed salts was evaluated using speciation calculations to determine whether pH and the concentrations of chloride and nitrate effect localized corrosion. Assuming localized corrosion would occur, credit is given to the remaining WP surface area in the evaluation of radionuclide release. NRC's Total-system performance assessment (TPA) Code was exercised to assess the risk associated with the partial WP failure by localized corrosion. These TPA exercises are extended to stress corrosion cracking (SCC) to evaluate the effect of cracks in the radionuclide release. Also, in localized corrosion and SCC, existing models for the initiation times are exercised to understand the model behavior in a geologic time scale. Lastly, the fluoride-induced fast corrosion of DS is evaluated. Although fluoride is known to accelerate Ti corrosion, the corrosion products, Ti-F complexes, may limit Ti corrosion controlled by fluoride supply rates. A mass balance of fluoride under the various repository conditions is used to determine realistic DS corrosion rates. (authors)

  6. Generating pipeline networks for corrosion assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, J. [Cimarron Engineering Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    Production characteristics and gas-fluid compositions of fluids must be known in order to assess pipelines for internal corrosion risk. In this study, a gathering system pipeline network was built in order to determine corrosion risk for gathering system pipelines. Connections were established between feeder and collector lines in order measure upstream production and the weighted average of the upstream composition of each pipeline in the system. A Norsok M-506 carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) corrosion rate model was used to calculate corrosion rates. A spreadsheet was then used to tabulate the obtained data. The analysis used straight lines drawn between the 'from' and 'to' legal sub-division (LSD) endpoints in order to represent pipelines on an Alberta township system (ATS) and identify connections between pipelines. Well connections were established based on matching surface hole location and 'from' LSDs. Well production, composition, pressure, and temperature data were sourced and recorded as well attributes. XSL hierarchical computations were used to determine the production and composition properties of the commingled inflows. It was concluded that the corrosion assessment process can identify locations within the pipeline network where potential deadlegs branched off from flowing pipelines. 4 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  7. Assessing resistance of stabilized corrosion resistant steels to intergranular corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karas, A.; Cihal, V. Jr.; Vanek, V.; Herzan, J.; Protiva, K.; Cihal, V.

    1987-01-01

    Resistance to intergranular corrosion was determined for four types of titanium-stabilized steels from the coefficients of stabilization efficiency according to the degree the chemical composition was known. The ATA SUPER steel showed the highest resistance parameter value. The resistance of this type of steel of a specific composition, showing a relatively low value of mean nitrogen content was compared with steel of an optimized chemical composition and with low-carbon niobium stabilized, molybdenum modified steels. The comparison showed guarantees of a sufficient resistance of the steel to intergranular corrosion. The method of assessing the resistance to intergranular corrosion using the calculation of the minimum content of Cr', i.e., the effective chromium content, and the maximum effective carbon content C' giving the resistance parameter k seems to be prospective for practical use in the production of corrosion resistant steels. (author). 1 tab., 5 figs., 15 refs

  8. Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk Based Inspection analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovhus, Torben Lund; Hillier, Elizabeth; Andersen, Erlend S.

    . Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion (MIC) is a degradation mechanism that has received increased attention from corrosion engineers and asset operators in the past decades. In this paper, the most recent models that have been developed in order to assess the impact of MIC on asset integrity will be presented...... and an extensive up-to date literature study. The parameters are discussed and subsequently combined in a novel procedure that allows assessment of MIC in a RBI analysis. The procedure is sub-divided into one screening step and a detailed assessment, which fits the recommended approach to assess risk in a RBI...

  9. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  10. Risk Based Corrosion Studies at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, E.

    2010-01-01

    TYPE I and II (ASTM 285-B) - Experienced stress corrosion cracking (SCC), 2 have been closed; 22 scheduled for closure by 2017, and No active leak sites today. TYPE III (ASTM A516-70 and A537 Class I) - Post-fabrication relief of weld residual stresses, Improved resistance to SCC and brittle fracture, No leakage history, and Receives new waste. The objectives are to utilize statistical methods to reduce conservatism in current chemistry control program; and express nitrite inhibitor limits in terms of pitting risk on waste tank steel. Conclusions are: (1) A statistically designed experimental study has been undertaken to improve the effectiveness of the minimum nitrite concentrations to inhibit pitting corrosion; (2) Mixture/amount model supports that pitting depends on the ratio of aggressive to inhibitive anions, as well as the concentration of each species; (3) Secondary aggressive species, Cl - and SO 4 2- , significantly effect the corrosion response; and (4) Results support the reduction of the chemistry control nitrite inhibitor concentrations in the regime of 0.8-1.0 M nitrate.

  11. Risk Analysis using Corrosion Rate Parameter on Gas Transmission Pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasikirono, B.; Kim, S. J.; Haryadi, G. D.; Huda, A.

    2017-05-01

    In the oil and gas industry, the pipeline is a major component in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas. Oil and gas distribution process sometimes performed past the pipeline across the various types of environmental conditions. Therefore, in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas, a pipeline should operate safely so that it does not harm the surrounding environment. Corrosion is still a major cause of failure in some components of the equipment in a production facility. In pipeline systems, corrosion can cause failures in the wall and damage to the pipeline. Therefore it takes care and periodic inspections or checks on the pipeline system. Every production facility in an industry has a level of risk for damage which is a result of the opportunities and consequences of damage caused. The purpose of this research is to analyze the level of risk of 20-inch Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline using Risk-based inspection semi-quantitative based on API 581 associated with the likelihood of failure and the consequences of the failure of a component of the equipment. Then the result is used to determine the next inspection plans. Nine pipeline components were observed, such as a straight pipes inlet, connection tee, and straight pipes outlet. The risk assessment level of the nine pipeline’s components is presented in a risk matrix. The risk level of components is examined at medium risk levels. The failure mechanism that is used in this research is the mechanism of thinning. Based on the results of corrosion rate calculation, remaining pipeline components age can be obtained, so the remaining lifetime of pipeline components are known. The calculation of remaining lifetime obtained and the results vary for each component. Next step is planning the inspection of pipeline components by NDT external methods.

  12. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  13. Storage of spent fuels: implementation of a research program on the risk of waste container rupture due to stress corrosion induced by fission products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parise, M.; Walle, E.; Foct, J.

    2001-01-01

    The following topics were dealt with: research programm on stress corrosion of spent fuel casks materials due to fission products, such as iodine, chemical interactions with zirconium, chemical aspects of stress corrosion, rupture risk assessment

  14. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  15. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  16. An overview of erosion corrosion models and reliability assessment for corrosion defects in piping system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srividya, A.; Suresh, H.N.; Verma, A.K.; Gopika, V.; Santosh

    2006-01-01

    Piping systems are part of passive structural elements in power plants. The analysis of the piping systems and their quantification in terms of failure probability is of utmost importance. The piping systems may fail due to various degradation mechanisms like thermal fatigue, erosion-corrosion, stress corrosion cracking and vibration fatigue. On examination of previous results, erosion corrosion was more prevalent and wall thinning is a time dependent phenomenon. The paper is intended to consolidate the work done by various investigators on erosion corrosion in estimating the erosion corrosion rate and reliability predictions. A comparison of various erosion corrosion models is made. The reliability predictions based on remaining strength of corroded pipelines by wall thinning is also attempted. Variables in the limit state functions are modelled using normal distributions and Reliability assessment is carried out using some of the existing failure pressure models. A steady state corrosion rate is assumed to estimate the corrosion defect and First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used to find the probability of failure associated with corrosion defects over time using the software for Component Reliability evaluation (COMREL). (author)

  17. Corrosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slabaugh, W. H.

    1974-01-01

    Presents some materials for use in demonstration and experimentation of corrosion processes, including corrosion stimulation and inhibition. Indicates that basic concepts of electrochemistry, crystal structure, and kinetics can be extended to practical chemistry through corrosion explanation. (CC)

  18. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  19. NDT method in determining the rate of corrosion applicable to risk based inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamed Hairul Hasmoni; Mohamad Pauzi Ismail; Ab Razak Hamzah

    2004-01-01

    Corrosion is a major problem in oil and gas industries, refineries and chemical process plants as the equipment is often exposed to corrosive environments or elevated temperature. Important equipment need to operate safely and reliably to avoid injuries to personnel and the public, and to prevent loss time and cost incurred due to loss of production and shutdown. The paper assess the approach in evaluating the technique of non-destructive testing (NDT) using Ultrasonic Testing (UT) in determining the rate of corrosion and remaining life of equipment applicable to Risk Based Inspection (RBI). Methods in determining the corrosion rate are presented using analytical method. Examples and data from MINT chiller water pipeline are presented to illustrate the application of these methods. (Author)

  20. Assessing corrosion in oil refining and petrochemical processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randy C. John

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the development of an information system used to manage corrosion of metals and alloys by high temperature gases found in many different oil refining, petrochemical, power generation, and chemical processes. The database currently represents about 7.9 million h of exposure time for about 5,500 tests with 89 commercial alloys for a temperature range of 200 - 1,200°C. The system manages corrosion data from well-defined exposures and determines corrosion product stabilities. New models used in the analysis of thermochemical data for the Fe-Ni-Cr-Co-C-O-S-N-H system are being compiled. All known phases based upon combinations of the elements have been analyzed to allow complete assessments of corrosion product stabilities. Use of these data allows prediction of stable corrosion products and hence identification of the possible dominant corrosion mechanisms. The system has the potential to be used in corrosion research, alloy development, failure analysis, lifetime prediction, and process operations evaluations. The corrosion mechanisms emphasized are oxidation, sulfidation, sulfidation/oxidation, and carburization.

  1. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  2. Reliability assessment of underground pipelines under the combined effect of active corrosion and residual stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amirat, A.; Mohamed-Chateauneuf, A.; Chaoui, K.

    2006-01-01

    Lifetime management of underground pipelines is mandatory for safe hydrocarbon transmission and distribution systems. Reliability analysis is recognized as a powerful decision-making tool for risk-based design and maintenance. Both the residual stresses generated during the manufacturing process and in-service corrosion reduce the ability to resist internal and external loading. In this study, the residual stress distribution in large diameter pipes has been characterized experimentally in order to be coupled with the corrosion model. During the pipe lifetime, residual stress relaxation occurs due to the loss of pipe thickness as material layers are consumed by corrosion. The reliability-based assessment of residual stress effects is applied to underground pipelines under a roadway, with and without active corrosion. It has been found that the residual stress greatly increases the failure probability, especially in the early stage of the pipe lifetime

  3. Assessing corrosion of MSE wall reinforcement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    The primary objective of this study was to extract reinforcement coupons from select MSE walls and document the extent of corrosion. In doing this, a baseline has been established against which coupons extracted in the future can be compared. A secon...

  4. Corrosion assessment of dry fuel storage containers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graves, C.E.

    1994-09-01

    The structural stability as a function of expected corrosion degradation of 75 dry fuel storage containers located in the 200 Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds was evaluated. These containers include 22 concrete burial containers, 13 55-gal (208-l) drums, and 40 Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) transport/storage casks. All containers are buried beneath at least 48 in. of soil and a heavy plastic tarp with the exception of 35 of the EBR-II casks which are exposed to atmosphere. A literature review revealed that little general corrosion is expected and pitting corrosion of the carbon steel used as the exterior shell for all containers (with the exception of the concrete containers) will occur at a maximum rate of 3.5 mil/yr. Penetration from pitting of the exterior shell of the 208-l drums and EBR-II casks is calculated to occur after 18 and 71 years of burial, respectively. The internal construction beneath the shell would be expected to preclude containment breach, however, for the drums and casks. The estimates for structural failure of the external shells, large-scale shell deterioration due to corrosion, are considerably longer, 39 and 150 years respectively for the drums and casks. The concrete burial containers are expected to withstand a service life of 50 years.

  5. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  6. Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk-Based Inspection Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovhus, Torben Lund; Andersen, Erlend S.; Hillier, Elisabeth

    2018-01-01

    Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. To manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used in the offshore...... industry as a means to justify the inspection strategy adopted. The RBI analysis is a decision-making technique that enables asset managers to identify the risk related to failure of their most critical systems and components, with an effect on safety, environmental, and business-related issues. Risk...... influenced corrosion (MIC) is a degradation mechanism that has received increased attention from corrosion engineers and asset operators in the past decades. In this paper, the most recent models that have been developed to assess the impact of MIC on asset integrity will be presented and discussed. From...

  7. Corrosion calculations report for the safety assessment SR-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-12-01

    This report is a compilation of the quantitative assessments of corrosion of the copper canisters in a KBS-3 repository. The calculations are part of the safety assessment SR-Site that is the long-term safety assessment to support the license application for building a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, Sweden. The safety assessment methodology gives the frame for the structured and documented approach to assess all conceivable corrosion processes. The quantitative assessments are done in different ways depending on the nature of the process and on the implications for the long-term safety. The starting point for the handling of the corrosion processes is the description of all known corrosion processes for copper with the current knowledge base and applied to the specific system and geology. Already at this stage some processes are excluded for further analysis, for example if the repository environment is not a sufficient prerequisite for the process to occur. The next step is to identify processes where the extent of corrosion could be bounded, e.g. by a mass balance approach. For processes where a mass balance is not limiting, the mass transport of corrodants (or corrosion products) is taken into account. A simple approach would be just to calculate the diffusive transport of corrodants through the bentonite, but generally the transport resistance for the interface between groundwater in a rock fracture intersecting the deposition hole and the bentonite buffer is more important. In SR-Site, the concept of equivalent flowrate, Q eq , is used. This assessment is done integrated with the evaluation of the geochemical and hydrogeological evolution of the repository. For most of the corrosion processes analysed, the corrosion depth is much smaller than the copper shell thickness, even for the assessment time of 10 6 years. Several processes give corrosion depths less than 100 μm, but no process give corrosion depths larger than a few millimetres

  8. Corrosion calculations report for the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-12-15

    This report is a compilation of the quantitative assessments of corrosion of the copper canisters in a KBS-3 repository. The calculations are part of the safety assessment SR-Site that is the long-term safety assessment to support the license application for building a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, Sweden. The safety assessment methodology gives the frame for the structured and documented approach to assess all conceivable corrosion processes. The quantitative assessments are done in different ways depending on the nature of the process and on the implications for the long-term safety. The starting point for the handling of the corrosion processes is the description of all known corrosion processes for copper with the current knowledge base and applied to the specific system and geology. Already at this stage some processes are excluded for further analysis, for example if the repository environment is not a sufficient prerequisite for the process to occur. The next step is to identify processes where the extent of corrosion could be bounded, e.g. by a mass balance approach. For processes where a mass balance is not limiting, the mass transport of corrodants (or corrosion products) is taken into account. A simple approach would be just to calculate the diffusive transport of corrodants through the bentonite, but generally the transport resistance for the interface between groundwater in a rock fracture intersecting the deposition hole and the bentonite buffer is more important. In SR-Site, the concept of equivalent flowrate, Q{sub eq}, is used. This assessment is done integrated with the evaluation of the geochemical and hydrogeological evolution of the repository. For most of the corrosion processes analysed, the corrosion depth is much smaller than the copper shell thickness, even for the assessment time of 106 years. Several processes give corrosion depths less than 100 mum, but no process give corrosion depths larger than a few

  9. Risk based service life prediction of underground cast iron pipes subjected to corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.Q.; Mahmoodian, M.

    2013-01-01

    Aging and deterioration of underground cast iron pipes is inevitable after their long time in service, with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism for pipe failures. Although considerable research has been undertaken in the past few decades, more is on the effects of corrosion on structural capacity of pipes than that on the prediction of their service life. This paper presents a methodology to quantitatively assess the risk of pipe collapse and predict its remaining service life using a time-dependent reliability theory. The concept of stress intensity in fracture mechanics is employed to establish the failure criterion of pipe collapse. An empirical model is derived for maximum pit growth of corrosion from the available data based on mathematical regressions. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method. It is found in the paper that the risk of pipe collapse increases with an increase in the diameter of the pipe for both external and internal corrosion. It is also found that the tougher the pipe is, the smaller the risk of its collapse. The paper concludes that a time-dependent reliability method is a very useful tool to predict the risk of pipe collapse and its remaining service life. The proposed method can help the water industry develop rehabilitation or replacement strategy for existing pipe networks with a view for better management of the pipe asset

  10. Pipeline external corrosion direct assessment methodology: lessons learned - part 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kowalski, Angel R. [DNV Columbus, Inc., OH (United States)

    2009-07-01

    DNV Columbus (Former CC Technologies) played a key role in the development of Direct Assessment (DA) methodologies, providing leadership in the NACE technical committees charged with development of DA standards. Since the first publication of NACE Standard RP-0502-2002, External Corrosion Direct Assessment (ECDA) has been successfully applied over a great number of pipelines to evaluate the impact of external corrosion on the pipeline integrity. This paper summarizes the results of applying ECDA over a selected number of underground pipelines and presents interesting facts about the methodology. (author)

  11. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  12. Fatigue life assessment of free spanning pipelines containing corrosion defects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopes, Rita de Kassia D.; Campello, Georga C.; Matt, Cyntia G. da Costa; Benjamin, Adilson C.; Franciss, Ricardo [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas (CENPES)

    2009-12-19

    The free spanning pipelines assessment is a highlighted issue to be considered during the project and maintenance of the submarine pipelines. It is required to evaluate the fatigue life and the maximum stress due to VIV (Vortex Induced Vibration) as well as wave forces when applicable in case of shallow water. The code DNV-RP-F105 (2006) presents a methodology to calculate the fatigue life for free spanning pipelines. Such methodology however considers the pipe with no kind of defects. Nevertheless, sometimes corrosion defects are detected in periodic inspections and therefore their effects need to be taken into account in the fatigue life evaluation. The purpose of this paper thus is to present a procedure to assess the influence of the corrosion defects in the fatigue life of free spanning pipelines. Some FE analyses were performed to determine the stress concentrate factor (SCF) of the corrosion defects, which were used as input in the methodology presented in the code DNV-RP-F105 (2006). Curves of damage and so lifetime have been generated as function of the span length and water depth. As a practical application, this methodology was applied to a sub sea pipeline with several corrosion defects, localized in shallow water offshore Brazil. (author)

  13. Assessing Level and Effectiveness of Corrosion Education in the UAE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hwee Ling Lim

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of corrosion can be minimized by an engineering workforce well trained in corrosion fundamentals and management. Since the United Arab Emirates incurs the second highest cost of corrosion after Saudi Arabia, this paper examined the quality of corrosion education in the UAE. Surveys with academia and industry respondents showed that dedicated corrosion courses and engineering courses that integrated corrosion into the curricula were available in UAE universities, but graduates had insufficient knowledge of corrosion engineering and superficial understanding of corrosion in real-life design contexts. The effectiveness of corrosion education is determined by both competence in corrosion knowledge/skills and availability of resources (faculty and research. Though most departments would not hire new corrosion-specialist faculty, department research efforts and industry partnerships in corrosion research were present. The paper concluded with recommendations for improving knowledge and skills of future engineers in corrosion and enhancing corrosion instruction to better meet industry needs.

  14. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  15. An assessment of corrosion life of copper overpack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honda, A.; Taniguchi, N.

    1999-08-01

    Corrosion life of copper overpack is estimated on the basis of current understandings of copper corrosion processes. The assessment is based on the mass balance. Oxygen and sulfide were taken into account as corrosive species. The sulfate existing in bentonite is assumed to be reduced to sulfide by sulfate reducing bacteria and corrodes copper overpacks. Pitting is involved in the assesment using two methods. One method is use of pitting factor acquired from analysis of archeological artifacts. The other is use of extreme value statistical technique. The time evolution of parameters for cumulative probability distribution function, Gumbel distribution, was estimated using the data from copper specimens buried in various soil and archeological artifacts of the bronze age. The pitting depth for 1000 years is estimated using the parameters for probability distribution function. The result of estimation shows 39-mm is the maximum penetration for 1000 years. Natural analogue data suggest the corrosion rate of 3 mm/1000 years. Therefore the estimation is considered to be conservative. (author)

  16. Corrosion of Spent Nuclear Fuel: The Long-Term Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, Rodney C.

    2003-01-01

    This research program is a broadly based effort to understand the long-term behavior of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and its alteration products in a geologic repository. We have established by experiments and field studies that natural uraninite, UO2+x, and its alteration products are excellent ''natural analogues'' for the study of the corrosion of UO2 in SNF. This on-going research program has addressed the following major issues: (1) What are the long-term corrosion products of natural UO2+x, uraninite, under oxidizing and reducing conditions? (2) What is the paragenesis or the reaction path for the phases that form during alteration? (3) What is the radionuclide content in the corrosion products as compared with the original UO2+x? Do the trace element contents substantiate models developed to predict radionuclide incorporation into the secondary phases? Are the corrosion products accurately predicted from geochemical codes (e.g., EQ3/6 or Geochemist's Workbench) that are used in performance assessments? Can these codes be tested by studies of natural analogue sites (e.g., Oklo, Cigar Lake or Pena Blanca)

  17. Mitigating the Risk of Stress Corrosion of Austenitic Stainless Steels in Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor Boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bull, A.; Owen, J.; Quirk, G.; G, Lewis; Rudge, A.; Woolsey, I.S.

    2012-09-01

    corrosion damage to the Type 316 superheater sections in the affected units an extensive programme of test work and plant modelling has been undertaken over a number of years. This has involved stress corrosion test work using full scale plant boiler simulations under a variety of feedwater chemistry conditions for both helical and serpentine boilers. Data from these investigations has then been used to construct models of the damage process that allow the risk of tube leaks due to stress corrosion cracking to be assessed. These models use plant feedwater chemistry and thermal-hydraulic data as inputs. The paper describes investigations of the risk of stress corrosion cracking in AGR boilers and the improvements in feedwater quality of the affected units to help mitigate the risk. (authors)

  18. Assessing Level and Effectiveness of Corrosion Education in the UAE

    OpenAIRE

    Lim, Hwee Ling

    2012-01-01

    The consequences of corrosion can be minimized by an engineering workforce well trained in corrosion fundamentals and management. Since the United Arab Emirates incurs the second highest cost of corrosion after Saudi Arabia, this paper examined the quality of corrosion education in the UAE. Surveys with academia and industry respondents showed that dedicated corrosion courses and engineering courses that integrated corrosion into the curricula were available in UAE universities, but graduates...

  19. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  20. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  1. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  2. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  3. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  4. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  5. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  6. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  7. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  8. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  9. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  10. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  11. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  13. Application of risk curve for statistical analysis of backside corrosion in the bottom floors of oil storage tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasai, Naoya; Maeda, Takuma; Tamura, Koichi; Kitsukawa, Shigeo; Sekine, Kazuyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Overall thickness profile data for backside corrosion of the bottom floors of 17 oil storage tanks were collected, and a risk curve from the overall thickness profile and discrete thickness data was derived to evaluate the corrosion risk of the bottom floors. The slope of the risk curve in the large corrosion region was found to indicate the local corrosion condition. Parameters for evaluating localized corrosion derived from the corrosion distributions were also investigated to evaluate the corrosion risk of the bottom floors. Compared with the parameters obtained using the overall thickness profile and discrete thickness data, the slope of the risk curve is an excellent evaluation parameter using discrete thickness data. Thus, it is possible to accurately evaluate the corrosion characteristics of the bottom floors of oil storage tanks with the parameters obtained from discrete thickness data. - Highlights: • The risk curves for corrosion show the corrosion characteristic. • The obtained parameters indicate the corrosion characteristic. • The corrosion characteristic can be evaluated with discrete thickness data.

  14. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  15. Assessment of scale formation and corrosion of drinking water supplies in Ilam city (Iran)

    OpenAIRE

    Zabihollah Yousefi; Farzad Kazemi; Reza Ali Mohammadpour

    2016-01-01

    Background: Scaling and corrosion are the two most important indexes in water quality evaluation. Pollutants are released in water due to corrosion of pipelines. The aim of this study is to assess the scale formation and corrosion of drinking water supplies in Ilam city (Iran). Methods: This research is a descriptive and cross-sectional study which is based on the 20 drinking water sources in Ilam city. Experiments were carried out in accordance with the Water and Wastewater Co. ...

  16. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  17. Assessment of corrosion and fatigue damage to light water reactor metal containments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, U.P.; Shah, V.N.; Smith, S.K.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a generic procedure for estimating aging damage, evaluating structural integrity, and identifying mitigation activities for safe operation of boiling water reactor (BWR) Mark I metal containments and ice-condenser type pressurized water reactor (PWR) cylindrical metal containments. The mechanisms of concern that can cause aging damage to these two types of containments are corrosion and fatigue. Assessment of fatigue damage to bellows is also described. Assessment of corrosion and fatigue damage described in this paper include: containment design features that are relevant to aging assessment, several corrosion and fatigue mechanisms, inspection of corrosion and fatigue damage, and mitigation of damage caused by these mechanisms. In addition, synergistic interaction between corrosion and fatigue is considered. Possible actions for mitigating aging include enhanced inspection methods, maintenance activities based on operating experience, and supplementary surveillance programs. Field experience related to aging of metal containments is reviewed. Finally, conclusions and recommendations are presented

  18. High resolution estimates of the corrosion risk for cultural heritage in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Marco, Alessandra; Screpanti, Augusto; Mircea, Mihaela; Piersanti, Antonio; Proietti, Chiara; Fornasier, M. Francesca

    2017-01-01

    Air pollution plays a pivotal role in the deterioration of many materials used in buildings and cultural monuments causing an inestimable damage. This study aims to estimate the impacts of air pollution (SO 2 , HNO 3 , O 3 , PM 10 ) and meteorological conditions (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity) on limestone, copper and bronze based on high resolution air quality data-base produced with AMS-MINNI modelling system over the Italian territory over the time period 2003–2010. A comparison between high resolution data (AMS-MINNI grid, 4 × 4 km) and low resolution data (EMEP grid, 50 × 50 km) has been performed. Our results pointed out that the corrosion levels for limestone, copper and bronze are decreased in Italy from 2003 to 2010 in relation to decrease of pollutant concentrations. However, some problem related to air pollution persists especially in Northern and Southern Italy. In particular, PM 10 and HNO 3 are considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion. Moreover, the high resolution data (AMS-MINNI) allowed the identification of risk areas that are not visible with the low resolution data (EMEP modelling system) in all considered years and, especially, in the limestone case. Consequently, high resolution air quality simulations are suitable to provide concrete benefits in providing information for national effective policy against corrosion risk for cultural heritage, also in the context of climate changes that are affecting strongly Mediterranean basin. - Highlights: • Air pollution plays a pivotal role in the deterioration of cultural materials. • Limestone, copper and bronze corrosion levels decreased in Italy from 2003 to 2010. • PM 10 is considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion in Northern Italy. • HNO3 is considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion in all analyzed years. • High-resolution data are particularly useful to define area at risk for corrosion. - Importance of the high

  19. Assessment of corrosion failure in copper tube of refrigerator unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohd Harun; Hafizal Yazid; Zaiton Selamat; Mohd Shariff Sattar; Muhamamd Jalil

    2007-01-01

    The copper tubes of the refrigerator unit have been coated with red and white color paints. According to the date of purchase and complaint recorded, the tube leaked after operation about one year. It was observed that the tubes became black and green in color at U-bend of the tube. No corrosion occurred on the internal surface of the tube. The leaking started at outer surface of the tube. The leaking started at outer surface and propagated to the internal surface of the tubes. The leaking damage was caused by corrosive species either from atmospheric corrosion or the paint contained chloride and sulfur elements. The corrosive species of sulfur and chlorine were a main factor in pitting corrosion. (author)

  20. Stainless steel corrosion in French LMFBR - Feedback and prevention against risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grabon, V.; Brissonneau, L.; Billey, C.

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with the mechanisms and the conditions leading to the most threatening corrosion risks specific to the use of sodium at high temperature as coolant in FBR (Fast Breeder Reactors) - apart from wastage (rapid erosion-corrosion of the steam generator tubes by sodium hydroxide due to steam-water leaks in sodium): Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) induced in sodium polluted by sodium hydroxide (following sodium-water reaction or incomplete cleaning of component), SCC induced by caustic solution during maintenance operations (cleaning of component or repair on drained sodium circuit inducing moist air ingress), and Intergranular Attack (IGA) induced on sensitized stainless steels by acid solutions used during maintenance operations (decontamination of component, chemical cleaning). These risks are illustrated by some examples of corrosion encountered through Phenix experience or in CEA sodium loops. The paper also describes the solutions and the preventive measures that have been put in place against these corrosion risks, in the form of design rules and operating procedures. Generally the plant operator cannot control the material parameters (metal composition, aging, stress) during the lifetime of the facility. Thus most of the time preventive measures consist in excluding at least one of the two other factors related to the chemical environment and/or to the operating conditions. Moreover corrosion of the primary components during cleaning and decontamination operations before repairing should be carefully examined to authorize their reuse in the reactor

  1. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  2. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  3. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  4. Risk-informed assessment of degraded containment structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, B.W.; Kunsman, D.M.; Graves, H.L.

    2003-01-01

    As nuclear power plants age, a number of degradation mechanisms may begin to affect the ability of critical containment structures to prevent radiation release during a severe accident. A research program is underway to quantify the effects of various types of containment degradation in a risk-informed manner. In this paper, corrosion is assumed to occur in the liner of a reinforced concrete containment at a 'typical' U.S. pressurized water reactor nuclear power plant, and its effect is investigated. Latin hypercube sampling is used in conjunction with finite element models of a typical steel-lined reinforced concrete containment to generate overpressurization fragilities of the containment with and without corrosion. An existing probabilistic risk assessment model of the plant is then used with these fragilities to determine the increase in risk caused by the corrosion. (author)

  5. Improved Navy Maintenance Through Corrosion-Fatigue Assessment Program

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hoppe, Wally

    2008-01-01

    ... to evaluate issues relevant to corrosion-fatigue of aircraft components. In this multi-year, multi-contract program, tools have been developed to assist in the establishment of maintenance options for corroded components...

  6. Corrosion assessment of refractory materials for high temperature waste vitrification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marra, J.C.; Congdon, J.W.; Kielpinski, A.L.

    1995-01-01

    A variety of vitrification technologies are being evaluated to immobilize radioactive and hazardous wastes following years of nuclear materials production throughout the Department of Energy (DOE) complex. The compositions and physical forms of these wastes are diverse ranging from inorganic sludges to organic liquids to heterogeneous debris. Melt and off-gas products can be very corrosive at the high temperatures required to melt many of these waste streams. Ensuring material durability is required to develop viable treatment processes. Corrosion testing of materials in some of the anticipated severe environments is an important aspect of the materials identification and selection process. Corrosion coupon tests on typical materials used in Joule heated melters were completed using glass compositions with high salt contents. The presence of chloride in the melts caused the most severe attack. In the metal alloys, oxidation was the predominant corrosion mechanism, while in the tested refractory material enhanced dissolution of the refractory into the glass was observed. Corrosion testing of numerous different refractory materials was performed in a plasma vitrification system using a surrogate heterogeneous debris waste. Extensive corrosion was observed in all tested materials

  7. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  8. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  9. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  10. Assessment of CANDU feeders subject to flow accelerated corrosion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iyer, S. [Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Mississauga, Ontario (Canada); Slade, J.P. [New Brunswick Power, Point Lepreau Generating Station, Lepreau, New Brunswick (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    'Full Text:' Inspections of CANDU feeders have indicated greater than expected wall thinning of outlet feeders. This wall thinning is attributed to Flow-Accelerated Corrosion (FAC). The rate of wall loss due to FAC is highest in the close radius bends near the end fitting. The minimum allowed thickness for a feeder pipes is based on design pressure during the design stage. Extended operation of the thinned feeders beyond their design basis, i.e., operation of feeders with thickness below design pressure based minimum thickness has economic benefits for the utilities. In such cases, it is important to establish the remaining life and evaluate the adequacy of the components for safe operation. ASME Code Case N-597 provides the guidelines for acceptance for continued service of Classes 2 and 3 piping components experiencing wall thinning during operation. However, for Class 1 systems, the Code Case recommends that the owner develop the methodology and criteria for the assessment of wall thinning. Therefore, under the CANDU Owner's Group's (COG) Feeder Integrity Joint Program (FIJP), the 'Fitness for Service Guidelines (FFSG) for Feeders Affected by Wall Thinning in Operating CANDU Reactors' was developed and subsequently conditionally approved by CNSC. This paper illustrates the underlying concepts in the FFSG methodology and its benefits to utilities. Specific examples of the application and benefits of the FFSG at Point Lepreau G.S. are described in this paper. The assessment of feeders is based on the requirements of the construction Code (Section III of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code): The following points briefly describe the assessment methodology. Satisfying the requirements of NB-3650 for design and service loadings are sufficient for continued service and extended life if the predicted minimum wall thickness of the component is greater than or equal to 90% of the pressure based thickness calculated as per NB-3641. The B

  11. Assessment of Corrosion Characteristics and Development of Remedial Technologies in Nuclear Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hong Pyo; Kim, J. S.; Lim, Y. S. (and others)

    2007-04-15

    In general, materials having superior resistance to corrosion are used for main components and structures in nuclear power plants (NPPs) to improve their safety. During long-term operations in the high temperature and pressure environment, however, localized-corrosion related degradations occur frequently in those materials, leading to unexpected shutdown of the plants. The unexpected shutdowns may lower the operating efficiency of the power generation and expand the repair period, which results in a huge economical loss. Moreover, since the damages may cause a leakage of the primary coolant that brings about a contamination by radioactive substances, the corrosion related degradations of structural materials have become a menace to the safety of NPPs. The steam generator tubes forming a boundary between the primary and secondary sides of NPPs are one of the main components that are most damaged by corrosion. Therefore, it is strongly required to verify the degradation mechanisms of Alloy 182 and Alloy 600 materials used in the steam generator tubes and primary systems, to establish remedial techniques for the degradations, to manage the damages, and to develop techniques for the extension of the plant's life. In this study, (1) the assessment techniques of corrosion damages were improved and the database of the obtained results were established. (2) The basic technologies of the management of corrosion damages were developed for the practical use. (3) The fundamental technologies for inhibition and repair of corrosion damages were also developed. The results of this project are applicable to the assessment, failure analysis and life estimation of the materials against corrosion damages. The assessment data obtained in this work are available for the technical references of the corrosion failures of components in NPPs during operation. Furthermore, it is applicable to establish materials design requirements, to establish the optimum operation condition and to

  12. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  13. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  14. Assessing microbiologically induced corrosion of waste package materials in the Yucca Mountain repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horn, J. M., LLNL

    1998-01-01

    The contribution of bacterial activities to corrosion of nuclear waste package materials must be determined to predict the adequacy of containment for a potential nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), NV. The program to evaluate potential microbially induced corrosion (MIC) of candidate waste container materials includes characterization of bacteria in the post-construction YM environment, determination of their required growth conditions and growth rates, quantitative assessment of the biochemical contribution to metal corrosion, and evaluation of overall MIC rates on candidate waste package materials.

  15. Sustainability assessment of concrete structure durability under reinforcement corrosion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thybo, Anna Emilie A.; Michel, Alexander; Stang, Henrik

    In the present paper a parametric study is conducted based on an existing finite element based model. The influence of cover layer, reinforcement diameter and water-to-cement ratio is compared to a possible scatter in the results due to insufficient knowledge about the distribution of the corrosion...... current density along the circumference of the reinforcement. Simulations show that the scatter has a greater influence on the results than changing the parameters wherefore it is concluded that further investigation of the non-uniform deposition of corrosion products is essential to better understand...

  16. Assessment of corrosion and stress corrosion cracking results for SCWR development: gaps and needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, W.; Gu, G.; Guzonas, D.; Luo, J.

    2010-01-01

    International efforts on materials evaluation for the development of supercritical water-cooled reactors (SCWRs) have produced a considerable amount of corrosion test data in the open literature. These data are helping guide the selection of candidate alloys for further, longer-term evaluation. As continuing research in this area advances, the gaps and limitations in the published data are being identified. These gaps can be seen in several areas, including the test environment and the severity of test condition as compared with reactor service/operating condition. While some of these gaps can be filled readily with existing capabilities, others require major investments in advanced test facilities. (author)

  17. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  18. Internal Corrosion Direct Assessment Detection of Water (WP #205)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-12

    Internal corrosion of natural gas pipelines is the result of interaction between the inside pipe wall and impurities in the product being transported. Such interactions can lead to an overall loss of material thereby thinning the pipe wall and thus r...

  19. Numerical assessment of non-uniform corrosion scenarios of rebar ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Corrosion of embedded rebars is a classical deterioration mechanism that remains as one of the most significant problems limiting the service life of concrete structures exposed to chloride-laden environments. The primary objective of this study is to propose and verify a numerical framework that can efficiently quantify ...

  20. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  1. Laboratory Assessment of Select Methods of Corrosion Control and Repair in Reinforced Concrete Bridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew D. Pritzl

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Fourteen reinforced concrete laboratory test specimens were used to evaluate a number of corrosion control (CoC procedures to prolong the life of patch repairs in corrosion-damaged reinforced concrete. These specimens included layered mixed-in chlorides to represent chloride contamination due to deicing salts. All specimens were exposed to accelerated corrosion testing for three months, subjected to patch repairs with various treatments, and further subjected to additional three months of exposure to accelerated corrosion. The use of thermal sprayed zinc, galvanic embedded anodes, epoxy/polyurethane coating, acrylic coating, and an epoxy patch repair material was evaluated individually or in combination. The specimens were assessed with respect to corrosion currents (estimated mass loss, chloride ingress, surface rust staining, and corrosion of the reinforcing steel observed after dissection. Results indicated that when used in patch repair applications, the embedded galvanic anode with top surface coating, galvanic thermal sprayed zinc, and galvanic thermal sprayed zinc with surface coating were more effective in controlling corrosion than the other treatments tested.

  2. Quantitative assessment of the effect of corrosion product buildup on occupational exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Divine, J.R.

    1982-10-01

    The program was developed to provide a method for predicting occupational exposures caused by the deposition of radioactive corrosion products outside the core of the primary system of an operating power reactor. This predictive capability will be useful in forecasting total occupational doses during maintenance, inspection, decontamination, waste treatment, and disposal. In developing a reliable predictive model, a better understanding of the parameters important to corrosion product film formation, corrosion product transport, and corrosion product film removal will be developed. This understanding can lead to new concepts in reactor design to minimize the buildup and transport of radioactive corrosion products or to improve methods of operation. To achieve this goal, three objectives were established to provide: (1) criteria for acceptable coolant sampling procedures and sampling equipment that will provide data which will be used in the model development; (2) a quantitative assessment of the effect of corrosion product deposits on occupational exposure; and (3) a model which describes the influence of flow, temperature, coolant chemistry, construction materials, radiation, and other operating parameters on the transport and buildup of corrosion products

  3. Corrosion Assessment of Candidate Materials for the SHINE Subcritical Assembly Vessel and Components FY15 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawel, Steven J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-01-01

    In the previous report of this series, a literature review was performed to assess the potential for substantial corrosion issues associated with the proposed SHINE process conditions to produce 99Mo. Following the initial review, substantial laboratory corrosion testing was performed emphasizing immersion and vapor-phase exposure of candidate alloys in a wide variety of solution chemistries and temperatures representative of potential exposure conditions. Stress corrosion cracking was not identified in any of the exposures up to 10 days at 80°C and 10 additional days at 93°C. Mechanical properties and specimen fracture face features resulting from slow-strain rate tests further supported a lack of sensitivity of these alloys to stress corrosion cracking. Fluid velocity was found not to be an important variable (0 to ~3 m/s) in the corrosion of candidate alloys at room temperature and 50°C. Uranium in solution was not found to adversely influence potential erosion-corrosion. Potentially intense radiolysis conditions slightly accelerated the general corrosion of candidate alloys, but no materials were observed to exhibit an annualized rate above 10 μm/y.

  4. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  5. Correlation of Process Data and Electrochemical Noise to Assess Kraft Digester Corrosion: Kamloops Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawel, SJ

    2002-05-09

    Electrochemical noise (ECN) probes were deployed in a carbon steel continuous kraft digester at five locations roughly equi-spaced from top to bottom of the vessel. Current and potential noise, the temperature at each probe location, and the value of about 60 process parameters (flow rates, liquor chemistry, etc.) were monitored continuously for a period of one year. Historical vessel inspection data, including inspections accomplished immediately prior to and immediately following probe deployment, and post-test evaluation of the probe components were used to assess/compare corrosion indications from the probes with physical changes in wall thickness and corrosion patterns on the digester shell. The results indicate that furnish composition is a significant variable influencing digester corrosion, with increasing amounts of Douglas fir in the nominal furnish correlating directly with increased corrosion activity on the ECN probes. All five probes detected changes in furnish composition approximately simultaneously, indicating rapid chemical communication through the liquor, but the effect was strongest and persisted longest relatively high in the digester. The ECN probes also indicate significant corrosion activity occurred at each probe position during shutdown/restart transients. Little or no correlation between ECN probe corrosion activity and other operational variables was observed. Post-test evaluation of the probes confirmed general corrosion of a magnitude that closely agreed with corrosion current sums calculated for each probe over the exposure period and with historical average corrosion rates for the respective locations. Further, no pitting was observed on any of the electrodes, which is consistent with the ECN data, relevant polarization curves developed for steel in liquor removed from the digester, and the post-test inspection of the digester.

  6. Corrosion Risk of Reinforced Concrete Structure Arising from Internal and External Chloride

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Kim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The corrosion risk of internal chloride and external chloride from three different exposure conditions was evaluated. The initiation of corrosion was detected by monitoring the galvanic current between cathode metal and embedded steel. The chloride threshold was determined by measuring the corrosion rate of steel by the polarization technique for internal chloride and the chloride profiling test for external chloride. As the result, the initiation of corrosion was accelerated with a cyclic wet/dry condition, compared to the totally wet condition. In addition, it was found that an increase of the drying ratio in the exposure condition resulted in an increase of corrosion rate after initiation. The threshold level of external chloride ranged from 0.2 to 0.3% weight by cement and internal chloride shows higher range, equated to 1.59–3.10%. Based on these data, the chloride penetration with exposure condition was predicted to determine the service life of reinforced concrete structure.

  7. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  8. Corrosion life-time assessment of carbon steel and stainless alloys for geological disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosaki, Akio; Komada, Hiroya

    1993-01-01

    The disposal facility for radioactive wastes requires long-term integrity. Metal is being considered for use as the engineered barrier which constructs the outer walls in such a facility, in order to prevent groundwater percolation. Thus, the most important problem for the integrity of the engineered barrier is corrosion by groundwater. There are two ways for using metal as an engineered barrier; one is as a structural material; and the other is as the inner-lining material of a concrete wall. This report discusses the corrosion lifetime assessment of carbon steel used as a structural and lining material, and stainless alloys, Type 304 steel and Titanium alloys used as lining materials. Corrosion potential and crevice corrosion are measured in the environment of neutral and alkalized water

  9. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  10. Risk assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyon, R.B.; Rosinger, E.L.J.

    1979-01-01

    The objectives of risk assessment studies for radioactive waste disposal are: to specify the features that prevent the escape of radionuclides from a deep disposal vault, to estimate how effective these features are likely to be, and to determine the potential consequences of the expected situation and conceivable but unlikely situations. The major features to be analysed include the insoluble nature of the waste form itself, the resistance of its container to corrosion or mechanical damage, the effectiveness of the massive rock barrier and the hold-up and dilution of radionuclides in the surface environment. Computer modelling is used in a technique called ''pathway analysis'' to bring together the experimental data, field data and understanding of the relevant phenomena into an assessment of the resultant effect on man and the environment. (author)

  11. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  12. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  13. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  14. Corrosion risks with polyethylene pipes in district cooling systems; Korrosionsrisker vid anvaendning av polyetenroer i fjaerrkylesystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinka, Tor-Gunnar; Almquist, Joergen; Gubner, Rolf [Swedish Corrosion Inst., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-06-01

    Field exposures of carbon steel and stainless steel test cylinders have been made in the district cooling system at Affaersverken Energi AB, Karlskrona, Sweden, as well as determinations of the amount of dissolved oxygen in the district cooling water. In the district cooling system tubes of polyethylene, carbon steel and stainless steel SS 2343 according to Swedish standard SS 14 23 43 are used. Karlskrona's drinking water, without deaeration, is used in the district cooling system. The polyethylene tubes with pressure number PN 10 are placed underground. The content of dissolved oxygen was very low in Karlskrona both before and after a period of 19 days with elevated oxygen content. During these 19 days the content of dissolved oxygen in the system increased without any apparent cause. The highest recorded oxygen content was 3.4 mg O{sub 2}/l. There are no obvious explanations for the increase of oxygen in the system. However, transport of oxygen into the system through the polyethylene tubes can be excluded as the source of the entering oxygen. The corrosion rate that was determined for freely exposed carbon steel in the district heating water in Karlskrona was low, 5 {mu}m/year. The corrosion attack was of a uniform nature (general corrosion) and there were no local corrosion attacks on the carbon steel cylinders. On connecting the carbon steel with stainless steel SS 23 43 with an area ratio of 1:1 the corrosion rate of the carbon steel increased by 2-3 times as compared to free exposure without electrical connection. On the stainless steel SS 2343 there was no corrosion damage either on the freely exposed stainless steel or on stainless steel that was connected to carbon steel. There were no signs of pitting corrosion or crevice corrosion on the stainless steel cylinders. The main corrosion risk for carbon steel at an elevated content of dissolved oxygen is bimetallic corrosion (galvanic corrosion) between carbon steel and copper and copper alloys, or

  15. Assessment of Corrosion, Fretting, and Material Loss of Retrieved Modular Total Knee Arthroplasties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Audrey J; Seagers, Kirsten A; Van Citters, Douglas W

    2017-07-01

    Modular junctions in total hip arthroplasties have been associated with fretting, corrosion, and debris release. The purpose of this study is to analyze damage severity in total knee arthroplasties of a single design by qualitative visual assessment and quantitative material loss measurements to evaluate implant performance and patient impact via material loss. Twenty-two modular knee retrievals of the same manufacturer were identified from an institutional review board-approved database. Junction designs included tapers with an axial screw and tapers with a radial screw. Constructs consisted of 2 metal alloys: CoCr and Ti6Al4V. Components were qualitatively scored and quantitatively measured for corrosion and fretting. Negative values represent adhered material. Statistical differences were analyzed using sign tests. Correlations were tested with a Spearman rank order test (P corrosion than other components, suggesting preferential corrosion when interfacing with Ti6Al4V. Overall, although corrosion was noted in this series, material loss was low, and none were revised for clinical metal-related reaction. This suggests the clinical impact from corrosion in total knee arthroplasty is low. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Implementation of Localized Corrosion in the Performance Assessment Model for Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vivek Jain, S.; David Sevougian; Patrick D. Mattie; Kevin G. Mon; Robert J. Mackinnon

    2006-01-01

    A total system performance assessment (TSPA) model has been developed to analyze the ability of the natural and engineered barriers of the Yucca Mountain repository to isolate nuclear waste over the 10,000-year period following repository closure. The principal features of the engineered barrier system (EBS) are emplacement tunnels (or ''drifts'') containing a two-layer waste package (WP) for waste containment and a titanium drip shield to protect the waste package from seeping water and falling rock, The 20-mm-thick outer shell of the WP is composed of Alloy 22, a highly corrosion-resistant nickel-based alloy. The barrier function of the EBS is to isolate the waste from migrating water. The water and its associated chemical conditions eventually lead to degradation of the waste packages and mobilization of the radionuclides within the packages. There are five possible waste package degradation modes of the Alloy 22: general corrosion, microbially influenced corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, early failure due to manufacturing defects, and localized corrosion. This paper specifically examines the incorporation of the Alloy-22 localized corrosion model into the Yucca Mountain TSPA model, particularly the abstraction and modeling methodology, as well as issues dealing with scaling, spatial variability, uncertainty, and coupling to other sub-models that are part of the total system model

  17. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  18. Assessing marine microbial induced corrosion at Santa Catalina Island, California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Antonio Ramírez

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available High iron and eutrophic conditions are reported as environmental factors leading to accelerated low-water corrosion, an enhanced form of near-shore microbial-induced corrosion. To explore this hypothesis, we deployed flow-through colonization systems in laboratory-based aquarium tanks under a continuous flow of surface seawater from Santa Catalina Island, California, USA, for periods of two and six months. Substrates consisted of mild steel – a major constituent of maritime infrastructure – and the naturally occurring iron sulfide mineral pyrite. Four conditions were tested: free-venting high-flux conditions; a stagnant condition; an active flow-through condition with seawater slowly pumped over the substrates; and an enrichment condition where the slow pumping of seawater was supplemented with nutrient rich medium. Electron microscopy analyses of the two-month high flux incubations document coating of substrates with twisted stalks, resembling iron oxyhydroxide bioprecipitates made by marine neutrophilic Fe-oxidizing bacteria. Six-month incubations exhibit increased biofilm and substrate corrosion in the active flow and nutrient enriched conditions relative to the stagnant condition. A scarcity of twisted stalks was observed for all six month slow-flow conditions compared to the high-flux condition, which may be attributable to oxygen concentrations in the slow-flux conditions being prohibitively low for sustained growth of stalk-producing bacteria. All substrates developed microbial communities reflective of the original seawater input, as based on 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Deltaproteobacteria sequences increased in relative abundance in the active flow and nutrient enrichment conditions, whereas Gammaproteobacteria sequences were relatively more abundant in the stagnant condition. These results indicate that i high-flux incubations with higher oxygen availability favor the development of biofilms with twisted stalks resembling those of

  19. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  20. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  1. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  2. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Corrosion of Spent Nuclear Fuel: The Long-Term Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, Rodney C.

    2003-01-01

    The successful disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is one of the most serious challenges to the successful completion of the nuclear fuel cycle and the future of nuclear power generation. In the United States, 21 percent of the electricity is generated by 107 commercial nuclear power plants (NPP), each of which generates 20 metric tons of spent nuclear fuel annually. In 1996, the total accumulation of spent nuclear fuel was 33,700 metric tons of heavy metal (MTHM) stored at 70 sites around the country. The end-of-life projection for current nuclear power plants (NPP) is approximately 86,000 MTHM. In the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain over 95% of the radioactivity originates from spent nuclear fuel. World-wide in 1998, approximately 130,000 MTHM of SNF have accumulated, most of it located at 236 NPP in 36 countries. Annual production of SNF is approximately 10,000 MTHM, containing about 100 tons of ''reactor grade'' plutonium. Any reasonable increase in the proportion of energy production by NPP, i.e., as a substitute for hydrocarbon-based sources of energy, will significantly increase spent nuclear fuel production. Spent nuclear fuel is essentially UO 2 with approximately 4-5 atomic percent actinides and fission product elements. A number of these elements have long half-lives hence, the long-term behavior of the UO 2 is an essential concern in the evaluation of the safety and risk of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. One of the unique and scientifically most difficult aspects of the successful disposal of spent nuclear fuel is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10 3 to 10 5 years) as required by the performance objectives set in regulations, i.e. 10 CFR 60. The direct verification of these extrapolations or interpolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the public that there is a reasonable basis for

  4. Corrosion of Spent Nuclear Fuel: The Long-Term Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ewing, Rodney C.

    2003-09-14

    The successful disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is one of the most serious challenges to the successful completion of the nuclear fuel cycle and the future of nuclear power generation. In the United States, 21 percent of the electricity is generated by 107 commercial nuclear power plants (NPP), each of which generates 20 metric tons of spent nuclear fuel annually. In 1996, the total accumulation of spent nuclear fuel was 33,700 metric tons of heavy metal (MTHM) stored at 70 sites around the country. The end-of-life projection for current nuclear power plants (NPP) is approximately 86,000 MTHM. In the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain over 95% of the radioactivity originates from spent nuclear fuel. World-wide in 1998, approximately 130,000 MTHM of SNF have accumulated, most of it located at 236 NPP in 36 countries. Annual production of SNF is approximately 10,000 MTHM, containing about 100 tons of ''reactor grade'' plutonium. Any reasonable increase in the proportion of energy production by NPP, i.e., as a substitute for hydrocarbon-based sources of energy, will significantly increase spent nuclear fuel production. Spent nuclear fuel is essentially UO{sub 2} with approximately 4-5 atomic percent actinides and fission product elements. A number of these elements have long half-lives hence, the long-term behavior of the UO{sub 2} is an essential concern in the evaluation of the safety and risk of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. One of the unique and scientifically most difficult aspects of the successful disposal of spent nuclear fuel is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10{sup 3} to 10{sup 5} years) as required by the performance objectives set in regulations, i.e. 10 CFR 60. The direct verification of these extrapolations or interpolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the

  5. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  6. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  8. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  9. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  10. The design of an instrumented rebar for assessment of corrosion in cracked reinforced concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pease, Bradley Justin; Geiker, Mette Rica; Stang, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    rebar with 17 electronically isolated corrosion sensors. Instrumented and standard rebars were cast into concrete beams and bending cracks were induced and held open using steel frames. Epoxy impregnation was used to assess and compare cracks in the concrete around the instrumented and standard rebar...... between the steel and concrete. Cracked beams with cast-in instrumented and standard rebars were ponded with a 10\\% chloride solution and the open circuit corrosion potential (OCP) of the 17 sensors was measured for up to 62 days. Measurements from the individual sensors indicate when and where active...

  11. Assessment of corrosion resistance of cast cobalt- and nickel-chromium dental alloys in acidic environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercieca, Sven; Caligari Conti, Malcolm; Buhagiar, Joseph; Camilleri, Josette

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the degradation resistance of nickel-chromium (Ni-Cr) and cobalt-chromium (Co-Cr) alloys used as a base material for partial dentures in contact with saliva. Wiron® 99 and Wironit Extra-Hard® were selected as representative casting alloys for Ni-Cr and Co-Cr alloys, respectively. The alloys were tested in contact with deionized water, artificial saliva and acidified artificial saliva. Material characterization was performed by X-ray diffractometry (XRD) and microhardness and nanohardness testing. The corrosion properties of the materials were then analyzed using open circuit potential analysis and potentiodynamic analysis. Alloy leaching in solution was assessed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry techniques. Co-Cr alloy was more stable than the Ni-Cr alloy in all solutions tested. Leaching of nickel and corrosion attack was higher in Ni-Cr alloy in artificial saliva compared with the acidified saliva. The corrosion resistance of the Co-Cr alloy was seen to be superior to that of the Ni-Cr alloy, with the former exhibiting a lower corrosion current in all test solutions. Microstructural topographical changes were observed for Ni-Cr alloy in contact with artificial saliva. The Ni-Cr alloy exhibited microstructural changes and lower corrosion resistance in artificial saliva. The acidic changes did not enhance the alloy degradation. Ni-Cr alloys are unstable in solution and leach nickel. Co-Cr alloys should be preferred for clinical use.

  12. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  13. High resolution estimates of the corrosion risk for cultural heritage in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Marco, Alessandra; Screpanti, Augusto; Mircea, Mihaela; Piersanti, Antonio; Proietti, Chiara; Fornasier, M Francesca

    2017-07-01

    Air pollution plays a pivotal role in the deterioration of many materials used in buildings and cultural monuments causing an inestimable damage. This study aims to estimate the impacts of air pollution (SO 2 , HNO 3 , O 3 , PM 10 ) and meteorological conditions (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity) on limestone, copper and bronze based on high resolution air quality data-base produced with AMS-MINNI modelling system over the Italian territory over the time period 2003-2010. A comparison between high resolution data (AMS-MINNI grid, 4 × 4 km) and low resolution data (EMEP grid, 50 × 50 km) has been performed. Our results pointed out that the corrosion levels for limestone, copper and bronze are decreased in Italy from 2003 to 2010 in relation to decrease of pollutant concentrations. However, some problem related to air pollution persists especially in Northern and Southern Italy. In particular, PM 10 and HNO 3 are considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion. Moreover, the high resolution data (AMS-MINNI) allowed the identification of risk areas that are not visible with the low resolution data (EMEP modelling system) in all considered years and, especially, in the limestone case. Consequently, high resolution air quality simulations are suitable to provide concrete benefits in providing information for national effective policy against corrosion risk for cultural heritage, also in the context of climate changes that are affecting strongly Mediterranean basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  15. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  16. Assessment of scale formation and corrosion of drinking water supplies in Ilam city (Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zabihollah Yousefi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Scaling and corrosion are the two most important indexes in water quality evaluation. Pollutants are released in water due to corrosion of pipelines. The aim of this study is to assess the scale formation and corrosion of drinking water supplies in Ilam city (Iran. Methods: This research is a descriptive and cross-sectional study which is based on the 20 drinking water sources in Ilam city. Experiments were carried out in accordance with the Water and Wastewater Co. standard methods for water and wastewater experiment. The data were analyzed by using Microsoft Excel and GraphPad Prism 5. The results were compared with national and international standards. Results: The mean and standard deviation (SD values of Ryznar, Langelier, Aggressive, Puckorius and Larson-Skold indices in year 2009 were equal to 7.833 (±0.28, -0.102 (±0.35, 11.88 (±0.34, 7.481 (±0.22 and 0.801 (±0.44, respectively, and were 7.861 (±0.28, -0.175 (±0.34, 11.84 (±0.37, 7.298(±0.32 and 0.633 (±0.47, for year 2013 respectively. The average of Langelier, Ryznar, Aggression, and Puckorius indices indicate that potable water resources in Ilam city have the tendency to be corrosive. Statistical analysis and figures carried out by GraphPad Prism version 5.04. Conclusion: The results of different indices for water resources of Ilam city revealed that water supplies of Ilam city were corrosive. Water quality control and replacement of distribution pipes in development of water network should be carried out. Moreover, water pipelines should be preserved with several modes of corrosion inhibition.

  17. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  18. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  19. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  20. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  4. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  5. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  6. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  7. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  8. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  9. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  10. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  11. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  12. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  13. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  14. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  15. Ultrasonic assessment of service life of concrete structures subject to reinforcing steel corrosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udegbunam, Ogechukwu Christian

    Over half of the bridges in the United States were built before 1970. Such bridges and the network of roads that they carry include the Inter State system, which was built as part of the great public works program, following the end of the Second World War. During that era, the emphasis was on strength design and economical construction of new structures, and not much premium was placed on durability and maintainability concerns. Since the end of this construction boom in the early 1970s, the concern for the durability of transportation infrastructure has steadily gained prominence among those agencies that must secure, program and administer funds for maintaining highway networks. The objective of this research was to develop a nondestructive method of assessing the durability of concrete bridge decks susceptible to damage from corrosion of embedded reinforcing steel. This was accomplished by formulating a holistic approach that accounts for the major factors that influence corrosion based deterioration of reinforced concrete. In this approach, the assessment of the durability of concrete bridge decks is based on a model that estimates the time it takes for the cover concrete to fail a result of stresses caused by expansion of reinforcing steel bars, due to corrosion activities. This time to failure is comprised of two distinct periods that must be evaluated before the problem can be solved. The research consisted of an experimental program and an analytical study. In the experimental program concrete specimens were cast and tested to determine their diffusivity and mechanical properties. The diffusivity was used to evaluate the period it takes for corrosion of the reinforcing bars to commence. In the analytical study, the resistance of the concrete structure against the internal forces caused by corrosion was evaluated with the finite element techniques. This resistance was used to evaluate the period defining the failure of the cover concrete. These two periods

  16. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  17. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  18. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  19. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  20. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  1. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  2. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  3. Engineered Barrier System - Assessment of the Corrosion Properties of Copper Canisters. Report from a Workshop. Synthesis and extended abstract

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, Peter (ed.) [Quintessa Ltd., Henley-on-Thames (GB)] (and others)

    2006-03-15

    A general impression from literature studies, presentations by workshop participants and the informal hearing with SKB is that there is in general a strong basis for the handling of copper corrosion in safety assessment. Work has been ongoing in the area for many decades and there appears to be a consensus on several key aspects of corrosion, such as the existence of a threshold potential for localised corrosion. This is of key importance for the assessment of corrosion under repository conditions. Localised corrosion has to be evaluated for the initial oxygenated phase. There is a need to demonstrate that the corrosion profile in reality will be similar to those of small scale experiments, i.e. roughening without real pitting. There is also a need to develop a better and more transparent basis for assessing how much oxygen can be available during the early oxygenated phase. Regarding stress corrosion cracking, there is a need for a consistent and possibly more detailed explanation either why it can be completely disregarded, or accounted for by probabilistic methods. Copper is normally assumed to be resistant to corrosion in oxygen free environments. However, this is not correct for the extremely long time period of one million years covered by SKB's safety assessment. Copper will react with sulphide by reduction of water. This reaction is the basis for SKB's performance assessment model for copper corrosion. The key aspect of this model is the availability of sulphide. SKB may need to address in more detail the availability of sulphide from the groundwater and the buffer bentonite and its speciation and solubility behaviour. However, the most sensitive assumption in SKB's modelling appears to be the assumption of zero microbial activity in the buffer throughout the assessment time scale of 10{sup 6} years. A detailed justification of this assumption is needed and possibly also 'what-if' calculations to illustrate consequences if this

  4. Engineered Barrier System - Assessment of the Corrosion Properties of Copper Canisters. Report from a Workshop. Synthesis and extended abstract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, Peter

    2006-03-01

    A general impression from literature studies, presentations by workshop participants and the informal hearing with SKB is that there is in general a strong basis for the handling of copper corrosion in safety assessment. Work has been ongoing in the area for many decades and there appears to be a consensus on several key aspects of corrosion, such as the existence of a threshold potential for localised corrosion. This is of key importance for the assessment of corrosion under repository conditions. Localised corrosion has to be evaluated for the initial oxygenated phase. There is a need to demonstrate that the corrosion profile in reality will be similar to those of small scale experiments, i.e. roughening without real pitting. There is also a need to develop a better and more transparent basis for assessing how much oxygen can be available during the early oxygenated phase. Regarding stress corrosion cracking, there is a need for a consistent and possibly more detailed explanation either why it can be completely disregarded, or accounted for by probabilistic methods. Copper is normally assumed to be resistant to corrosion in oxygen free environments. However, this is not correct for the extremely long time period of one million years covered by SKB's safety assessment. Copper will react with sulphide by reduction of water. This reaction is the basis for SKB's performance assessment model for copper corrosion. The key aspect of this model is the availability of sulphide. SKB may need to address in more detail the availability of sulphide from the groundwater and the buffer bentonite and its speciation and solubility behaviour. However, the most sensitive assumption in SKB's modelling appears to be the assumption of zero microbial activity in the buffer throughout the assessment time scale of 10 6 years. A detailed justification of this assumption is needed and possibly also 'what-if' calculations to illustrate consequences if this assumption turns out not to be

  5. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  6. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  7. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  8. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  9. Survey on methodologies in the risk assessment of chemical exposures in emergency response situations in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heinälä, Milla; Gundert-Remy, Ursula; Wood, Maureen Heraty

    2013-01-01

    A scientifically sound assessment of the risk to human health resulting from acute chemical releases is the cornerstone for chemical incident prevention, preparedness and response. Although the general methodology to identify acute toxicity of chemicals has not substantially changed in the last....../corrosive chemicals will remain serious risks also in future the development of plausible scenarios for potential emerging risks is also needed. This includes risks from new mixtures and chemicals (e.g. nanoparticles)....

  10. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  11. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  12. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  13. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  14. Development of corrosion defect assessment program for API X65 gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jae Boong; Kim, Youn Ho; Kim, Young Jin; Goo, Bon Geol; Kim, Yound Pyo; Baek, Jong Hyun; Kim, Woo Sik

    2001-01-01

    Pipelines have the highest capacity and are the safest and the least environmentally disruptive way for gas or oil transmission. Recently, failures due to corrosion defects have become of major concern in maintaining pipeline integrity. A number of solutions have been developed for the assessment of remaining strength of corroded pipelines. However, these solutions are known to be dependent on material properties and pipeline geometries. In this paper, a fitness-for-purpose type limit load solution for corroded gas pipelines made of the X65 steel is proposed. For this purpose, a series of burst tests with various types of corrosion defects are performed. Finite element simulations are carried out to derive an appropriate failure criterion. And then, further, extensive finite element analyses are performed to obtain the FFP type limit load solution for corroded X65 gas pipelines as a function of defect depth, length and pipeline geometry. And also, a window based computer program for the assessment of corrosion defect, which is named as COPAP(COrroded Pipeline Assessment Program) has been developed on the basis of proposed limit load solution

  15. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  16. Study on the corrosion assessment of overpack welds-III (Joint research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitsui, Hiroyuki; Takahashi, Rieko; Otsuki, Akiyoshi; Asano, Hidekazu; Taniguchi, Naoki; Yui, Mikazu

    2006-12-01

    There is some possibility that the corrosion resistance of overpack welds is different from that of base metal due to the differences of material properties. In this study, corrosion behavior of welded joint for carbon steel was compared with base metal using the specimens taken from welded joint model fabricated by TIG, MAG and EBW respectively. The corrosion tests were performed for following four items. Passivation behavior and corrosion type. Propagation of general corrosion, pitting corrosion and crevice corrosion under aerobic condition. Stress corrosion cracking susceptibility. Propagation of general corrosion and hydrogen embrittlement under anaerobic condition. The results of these corrosion tests indicated that the corrosion resistance of welded metal by TIG and MAG was inferior to base metal for general corrosion, pitting corrosion and crevice corrosion. It was implied that the filler materials used for welding affected the corrosion resistance. No deterioration of corrosion resistance was observed in any corrosion modes for EBW, which does not need filler material. The susceptibility to stress corrosion cracking of welded metal and heat affected zone was lower than that of base metal. (author)

  17. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  18. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  19. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  20. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  1. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  2. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  3. A predictive approach to fitness-for-service assessment of pitting corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shekari, Elahe; Khan, Faisal; Ahmed, Salim

    2016-01-01

    Pitting corrosion is a localized corrosion that often causes leak and failure of process components. The aim of this work is to present a new fitness-for-service (FFS) assessment methodology for process equipment to track and predict pitting corrosion. In this methodology, pit density is modeled using a non-homogenous Poisson process and induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. The non-homogenous Markov process is used to estimate maximum pit depth, considering that only the current state of the damage influences its future development. Subsequently, the distributions of the operating pressure and the estimated burst pressure of the defected component are integrated with Monte Carlo simulations and First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method to calculate the reliability index and probability of failure. This methodology provides a more realistic failure assessment and enables consideration of uncertainty associated with estimating pit characteristics. The practical application of the proposed model is demonstrated using a piping case study. - Highlights: • A new model to estimate maximum pit depth and pit density as two main pit characteristics. • Integrating maximum pit depth with failure analysis considering allowable pressure of defected component. • Time dependent failure analysis to determine the remaining life.

  4. Partial corrosion casting to assess cochlear vasculature in mouse models of presbycusis and CMV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carraro, Mattia; Park, Albert H; Harrison, Robert V

    2016-02-01

    Some forms of sensorineural hearing loss involve damage or degenerative changes to the stria vascularis and/or other vascular structures in the cochlea. In animal models, many methods for anatomical assessment of cochlear vasculature exist, each with advantages and limitations. One methodology, corrosion casting, has proved useful in some species, however in the mouse model this technique is difficult to achieve because digestion of non vascular tissue results in collapse of the delicate cast specimen. We have developed a partial corrosion cast method that allows visualization of vasculature along much of the cochlear length but maintains some structural integrity of the specimen. We provide a detailed step-by-step description of this novel technique. We give some illustrative examples of the use of the method in mouse models of presbycusis and cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Preliminary assessment of stress corrosion cracking of nickel based alloy 182 in nuclear reactor environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima, Luciana Iglesias Lourenco; Bracarense, Alexandre Queiroz; Schvartzman, Monica Maria de Abreu Mendonca; Quinan, Marco Antonio Dutra

    2010-01-01

    Stress corrosion crack (SCC) in a primary circuit of a nuclear pressurized water reactor consists of a degradation process in which aggressive media, stress and material susceptibility are present. Over the last thirty years, SCC has been observed in dissimilar metal welds. This study presents a comparative work between the SCC in the alloy 182 filler metal weld in two different hydrogen concentrations (25 e 50 cm 3 H 2 /kg H 2 O) in primary water. The susceptibility to stress corrosion cracking was assessed using the slow strain rate tensile (SSRT) test. The results of the SSRT test indicated that the material is more susceptible to SCC at 25 cm 3 H 2 /kg H 2 O. (author)

  6. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  7. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  9. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  10. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  11. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  12. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  13. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  14. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  15. In Vitro Corrosion Assessment of Additively Manufactured Porous NiTi Structures for Bone Fixation Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamdy Ibrahim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available NiTi alloys possess distinct functional properties (i.e., shape memory effect and superelasticity and biocompatibility, making them appealing for bone fixation applications. Additive manufacturing offers an alternative method for fabricating NiTi parts, which are known to be very difficult to machine using conventional manufacturing methods. However, poor surface quality, and the presence of impurities and defects, are some of the major concerns associated with NiTi structures manufactured using additive manufacturing. The aim of this study is to assess the in vitro corrosion properties of additively manufactured NiTi structures. NiTi samples (bulk and porous were produced using selective laser melting (SLM, and their electrochemical corrosion characteristics and Ni ion release levels were measured and compared with conventionally fabricated NiTi parts. The additively manufactured NiTi structures were found to have electrochemical corrosion characteristics similar to those found for the conventionally fabricated NiTi alloy samples. The highest Ni ion release level was found in the case of 50% porous structures, which can be attributed to their significantly higher exposed surface area. However, the Ni ion release levels reported in this work for all the fabricated structures remain within the range of most of values for conventionally fabricated NiTi alloys reported in the literature. The results of this study suggest that the proposed SLM fabrication process does not result in a significant deterioration in the corrosion resistance of NiTi parts, making them suitable for bone fixation applications.

  16. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  17. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  18. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  19. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  20. Progress in the assessment of the corrosion of low and intermediate level waste containers under repository conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsh, G.P.

    1988-08-01

    This report describes the methodology which has been developed to assess the long term corrosion of carbon steel and austenitic stainless steel containers for LLW and ILW under repository conditions. In the case of carbon steel the objective is to estimate the metal thickness required as a corrosion allowance in order to attain a container life of up to 300 years. With the stainless steel the aim is to prove their corrosion resistance over the same life-span. Results are reported which given confidence that both classes of steel may be used to produce containers which will last beyond 300 years. Furthermore the level of confidence in this prediction is expected to be increased by the corrosion data which will be obtained in the final year of the current research programme. (author)

  1. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  2. Health, safety and environment risk assessment in gas pipelines by indexing method:case of Kermanshah Sanandaj oil pipeline

    OpenAIRE

    Y. Hamidi; I. Mohamadfam; M. Motamedzadeh

    2009-01-01

    Background and AimsUsing pipelines for oil products transportation involves ranges of safety, health and environmental risks, this option however, is dominant with numerous  advantages. The purpose of this study was; relative risk assessment of abovementioned risk in Kermanshah-Sanandaj Oil Pipeline.MethodsThe method used in this study was Kent Muhlbauer method in which relative risk was assessed using third-party damage, corrosion, design, incorrect operations and leak impact  factor.Results...

  3. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  4. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  5. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  6. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  9. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  10. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  11. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  12. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  13. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  14. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  15. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  16. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  17. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  18. Corrosion behavior of environmental assessment glass in product consistency tests of extended duration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.; Ebert, W.L.; Luo, J.S.; Tam, S.W.

    1998-01-01

    We have conducted static dissolution tests to study the corrosion behavior of the Environmental Assessment (EA) glass, which is the benchmark glass for high-level waste glasses being produced at US Department of Energy facilities. These tests were conducted to evaluate the behavior of the EA glass under the same long-term and accelerated test conditions that are being used to evaluate the corrosion of waste glasses. Tests were conducted at 90 C in a tuff groundwater solution at glass surface area/solution volume (WV) ratios of about 2000 and 20,000 m -1 . The glass dissolved at three distinct dissolution rates in tests conducted at 2000 m -1 . Based on the release of boron, dissolution within the first seven days occurred at a rate of about 0.65 g/(m 2 · d). The rate between seven and 70 days decreased to 0.009 g/(m 2 · d). An increase in the dissolution rate occurred at longer times after the precipitation of zeolite phases analcime, gmelinite, and an aluminum silicate base. The dissolution rate after phase formation was about 0.18 g/(m 2 · d). The formation of the same zeolite alteration phases occurred after about 20 days in tests at 20,000 m - . The average dissolution rate over the first 20 days was 0.5 g/(m 2 · d) and the rate after phase formation was about 0.20 g/(m 2 · d). An intermediate stage with a lower rate was not observed in tests at 20,000 m -1 . The corrosion behavior of EA glass is similar to that observed for other high-level waste glasses reacted under the same test conditions. The dissolution rate of EA glass is higher than that of other high-level waste glasses both in 7-day tests and after alteration phases form

  19. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  20. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  1. Corrosion detector apparatus for universal assessment of pollution in data centers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Hendrik F.; Klein, Levente I.

    2015-08-18

    A compact corrosion measurement apparatus and system includes an air fan, a corrosion sensor, a temperature sensor, a humidity sensor, a heater element, and an air flow sensor all under control to monitor and maintain constant air parameters in an environment and minimize environmental fluctuations around the corrosion sensor to overcome the variation commonly encountered in corrosion rate measurement. The corrosion measurement apparatus includes a structure providing an enclosure within which are located the sensors. Constant air flow and temperature is maintained within the enclosure where the corrosion sensor is located by integrating a variable speed air fan and a heater with the corresponding feedback loop control. Temperature and air flow control loops ensure that corrosivity is measured under similar conditions in different facilities offering a general reference point that allow a one to one comparison between facilities with similar or different pollution levels.

  2. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  3. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  4. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  5. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  8. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  9. Metal Particles – Hazard or Risk? Elaboration and Implementation of a Research Strategy from a Surface and Corrosion Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Midander, Klara

    2009-01-01

    Do metal particles (including particles of pure metals, alloys, metal oxides and compounds) pose a hazard or risk to human health? In the light of this question, this thesis summarizes results from research conducted on metal particles, and describes the elaboration and implementation of an in vitro test methodology to study metal release from particles through corrosion and dissolution processes in synthetic biological media relevant for human exposure through inhalation/ingestion and dermal...

  10. Corrosion and corrosion control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khanna, A.S.; Totlani, M.K.

    1995-01-01

    Corrosion has always been associated with structures, plants, installations and equipment exposed to aggressive environments. It effects economy, safety and product reliability. Monitoring of component corrosion has thus become an essential requirement for the plant health and safety. Protection methods such as appropriate coatings, cathodic protection and use of inhibitors have become essential design parameters. High temperature corrosion, especially hot corrosion, is still a difficult concept to accommodate in corrosion allowance; there is a lack of harmonized system of performance testing of materials at high temperatures. In order to discuss and deliberate on these aspects, National Association for Corrosion Engineers International organised a National Conference on Corrosion and its Control in Bombay during November 28-30, 1995. This volume contains papers presented at the symposium. Paper relevant to INIS is indexed separately. refs., figs., tabs

  11. Dictionary corrosion and corrosion control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    This dictionary has 13000 entries in both languages. Keywords and extensive accompanying information simplify the choice of word for the user. The following topics are covered: Theoretical principles of corrosion; Corrosion of the metals and alloys most frequently used in engineering. Types of corrosion - (chemical-, electro-chemical, biological corrosion); forms of corrosion (superficial, pitting, selective, intercrystalline and stress corrosion; vibrational corrosion cracking); erosion and cavitation. Methods of corrosion control (material selection, temporary corrosion protection media, paint and plastics coatings, electro-chemical coatings, corrosion prevention by treatment of the corrosive media); Corrosion testing methods. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Yongsheng; Khan, Faisal; Thodi, Premkumar; Abbassi, Rouzbeh

    2017-01-01

    Pipeline corrosion is one of the main causes of subsea pipeline failure. It is necessary to monitor and analyze pipeline condition to effectively predict likely failure. This paper presents an approach to analyze the observed abnormal events to assess the condition of subsea pipelines. First, it focuses on establishing a systematic corrosion failure model by Bow-Tie (BT) analysis, and subsequently the BT model is mapped into a Bayesian Network (BN) model. The BN model facilitates the modelling of interdependency of identified corrosion causes, as well as the updating of failure probabilities depending on the arrival of new information. Furthermore, an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) has been developed to better structure the network and to provide an efficient updating algorithm. Based on this OOBN model, probability updating and probability adaptation are performed at regular intervals to estimate the failure probabilities due to corrosion and potential consequences. This results in an interval-based condition assessment of subsea pipeline subjected to corrosion. The estimated failure probabilities would help prioritize action to prevent and control failures. Practical application of the developed model is demonstrated using a case study. - Highlights: • A Bow-Tie (BT) based corrosion failure model linking causation with the potential losses. • A novel Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) based corrosion failure risk model. • Probability of failure updating and adaptation with respect to time using OOBN model. • Application of the proposed model to develop and test strategies to minimize failure risk.

  13. Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Corrosion in Concrete Structures on the Basis of Half-Cell Potential and Concrete Resistivity Measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Sadowski, Lukasz

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, the corrosion of steel reinforcement has become a major problem in the construction industry. Therefore, much attention has been given to developing methods of predicting the service life of reinforced concrete structures. The progress of corrosion cannot be visually assessed until a crack or a delamination appears. The corrosion process can be tracked using several electrochemical techniques. Most commonly the half-cell potential measurement technique is used for this purpos...

  14. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  15. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  16. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  17. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  18. Drinking water quality assessment and corrosion mitigation in the hospital water supply system of Chacas Village (Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Bigoni

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Rural hospitals in developing countries often lack appropriate water treatments to assure their water needs. In these facilities, due to water different uses and its use with medical equipment, water quality problems can cause very hazardous situations. In particular, corrosion of water distribution systems is a common issue that can cause unwanted changes in water quality and failures of the distribution system’s pipes. These considerations suggest that a complete monitoring program and water treatments to control and guarantee the water quality would be required in each health-care facility. This study assessed the quality of the water at the rural hospital of Chacas (Peru as measured via specific physical-chemical and microbiological parameters. The results show that the chemical and microbiological qualities of the water generally worsen from catchment to the hospital’s taps. Moreover, this work investigated the effects of a dolomite limestone filter installed to adjust the quality of the water distributed at the hospital and thereby mitigate the water’s corrosiveness. Corrosion indices were calculated to provide useful information on the water’s corrosiveness and positive results were obtained in reducing corrosiveness after the installation of the dolomite filter.

  19. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  20. Nuclear risk reduction study. The study of structure corrosion caused by sea salt aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakayasu, Fumio

    2008-01-01

    Present all nuclear power plants in Fukui prefecture are located at the bay side of Japan Sea coast. New facilities may be planed to be at ocean side. The sea salt corrosion at the ocean side should be larger than it at the bay side. We have the salt damage experimental yard at Awara sea coast and at Fukui city (about 15km from coast) for the corrosion comparison study between Japan Sea coast and inland. We confirm the amounts of sea salt aerosol vary among the season and year. The weight loss of specimen inside of shelter without filter is higher than both of sheltered with filter and inland specimen. The weight loss of specimen inside of shelter with filter is almost same as it of inland specimen. We confirmed the filter which we used is sufficient capability to prevent corrosion. We confirmed the corrosion rate of both opened specimen and sheltered specimen without filter increased after some periods. (author)

  1. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  2. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  3. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  4. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  5. Assessment of corrosion resistance of Nd–Fe–B magnets by silanization for orthodontic applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabiano, F., E-mail: ffabiano@unime.it [Department of Electronic Engineering, Industrial Chemistry and Engineering, University of Messina, Contrada di Dio, 98166 Messina (Italy); Department of Experimental, Specialized Medical-Surgical and Odontostomatological Sciences, Messina (Italy); Celegato, F. [INRIM Electromagnetism Division, Torino (Italy); Giordano, A. [Department of Electronic Engineering, Industrial Chemistry and Engineering, University of Messina, Contrada di Dio, 98166 Messina (Italy); Borsellino, C. [Department of Civil Engineering, Computing, Construction, Environmental and Applied Mathematics, Messina (Italy); Bonaccorsi, L.; Calabrese, L. [Department of Electronic Engineering, Industrial Chemistry and Engineering, University of Messina, Contrada di Dio, 98166 Messina (Italy); Tiberto, P. [INRIM Electromagnetism Division, Torino (Italy); Cordasco, G.; Matarese, G. [Department of Experimental, Specialized Medical-Surgical and Odontostomatological Sciences, Messina (Italy); Fabiano, V. [Department of Civil Engineering, Computing, Construction, Environmental and Applied Mathematics, Messina (Italy); Department of Experimental, Specialized Medical-Surgical and Odontostomatological Sciences, Messina (Italy); Azzerboni, B. [Department of Electronic Engineering, Industrial Chemistry and Engineering, University of Messina, Contrada di Dio, 98166 Messina (Italy)

    2014-02-15

    Nd–Fe–B permanent magnets are characterised by excellent magnetic properties. However, being extremely vulnerable to the attack of both climate and corrosive environments, their applications are limited. This paper describes how, at different thicknesses of N-propyl-trimetoxy-silane, the coating affects the magnetic force of nickel plated magnets. We also investigate if the corrosion resistance of silanized Nd–Fe–B magnets increases in mildly corrosive environments by immersing them in a synthetic saliva solution. It was found that the silanization treatment does not affect the strength of the magnetic force and provide an enhancement of the corrosion resistance of the substrate.

  6. Assessment of corrosion resistance of Nd-Fe-B magnets by silanization for orthodontic applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabiano, F.; Celegato, F.; Giordano, A.; Borsellino, C.; Bonaccorsi, L.; Calabrese, L.; Tiberto, P.; Cordasco, G.; Matarese, G.; Fabiano, V.; Azzerboni, B.

    2014-02-01

    Nd-Fe-B permanent magnets are characterised by excellent magnetic properties. However, being extremely vulnerable to the attack of both climate and corrosive environments, their applications are limited. This paper describes how, at different thicknesses of N-propyl-trimetoxy-silane, the coating affects the magnetic force of nickel plated magnets. We also investigate if the corrosion resistance of silanized Nd-Fe-B magnets increases in mildly corrosive environments by immersing them in a synthetic saliva solution. It was found that the silanization treatment does not affect the strength of the magnetic force and provide an enhancement of the corrosion resistance of the substrate.

  7. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  8. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  9. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  10. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  11. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  12. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  13. Pipeline integrity management in an urban environment supported by an External Corrosion Direct Assessment (ECDA) application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dus, Pedro Luiz; Valente, Antonio Carlos Rodrigues [Companhia de Gas de Sao Paulo (COMGAS), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Valdes, Alberto [GE Oil and Gas-PII Pipeline Solutions, Houston, TX (United States)

    2009-07-01

    COMGAS is the largest natural gas distributing company in Brazil, having more than 700,000 costumers. Gas delivery to this customer base is achieved through a network of high-pressure steel pipelines (17 and 35 bar) with around 1,100 km (690 miles) in length, the majority operating inside urban areas. The Integrity Management of this network is a particularly difficult task since neither pigging nor hydrostatic testing can be used to inspect the existing pipelines. Direct Assessment (DA) is the only assessment technique available at the moment. As an initial stage COMGAS has implemented an innovative project called SIA (Sistema de Integridade de Ativos). SIA combines functionality targeted for guiding and implementing an External Corrosion Assessment (ECDA) procedure, with full data alignment and integration, corporate policies on safety and dedicated reporting capabilities. Seamless interaction between SIA and the existing Operations GIS system was a key specification requirement for the construction of the system. This paper describes the lessons learned during the implementation of the ECDA module of the SIA, the first application experiences of the ECDA process with the support of the module and the initial benefits obtained from the use of the new Integrity Management System. (author)

  14. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  15. Assessment of corrosion in the flue gas cleaning system using on-line monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montgomery, Melanie; Vendelbo Nielsen, Lars; Berggreen Petersen, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Amager unit 1 is a 350 MW multifuel suspension-fired plant commissioned in 2009 to fire biomass (straw and wood pellets). Increasing corrosion problems in the flue gas cleaning system were observed in the gas-gas preheater (GAFO), the booster fan and flue gas ducts. Chlorine containing corrosion ...

  16. A SIMPLE APPROACH TO ASSESSING COPPER PITTING CORROSION TENDENCIES AND DEVELOPING CONTROL STRATEGIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Localized corrosion of copper premise plumbing in drinking water distribution systems can lead to pinhole leaks, which are a growing problem for many homeowners. Despite the fact that water quality is an important factor associated with localized copper corrosion, definitive appr...

  17. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  18. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  19. Corrosion Assessment of Candidate Materials for the SHINE Subcritical Assembly Vessel and Components FY14 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawel, Steven J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2014-10-01

    Laboratory corrosion testing of candidate alloys—including Zr-4 and Zr-2.5Nb representing the target solution vessel, and 316L, 2304, 304L, and 17-4 PH stainless steels representing process piping and balance-of-plant components—was performed in support of the proposed SHINE process to produce 99Mo from low-enriched uranium. The test solutions used depleted uranyl sulfate in various concentrations and incorporated a range of temperatures, excess sulfuric acid concentrations, nitric acid additions (to simulate radiolysis product generation), and iodine additions. Testing involved static immersion of coupons in solution and in the vapor above the solution, and was extended to include planned-interval tests to examine details associated with stainless steel corrosion in environments containing iodine species. A large number of galvanic tests featuring couples between a stainless steel and a zirconium-based alloy were performed, and limited vibratory horn testing was incorporated to explore potential erosion/corrosion features of compatibility. In all cases, corrosion of the zirconium alloys was observed to be minimal, with corrosion rates based on weight loss calculated to be less than 0.1 mil/year with no change in surface roughness. The resulting passive film appeared to be ZrO2 with variations in thickness that influence apparent coloration (toward light brown for thicker films). Galvanic coupling with various stainless steels in selected exposures had no discernable effect on appearance, surface roughness, or corrosion rate. Erosion/corrosion behavior was the same for zirconium alloys in uranyl sulfate solutions and in sodium sulfate solutions adjusted to a similar pH, suggesting there was no negative effect of uranium resulting from fluid dynamic conditions aggressive to the passive film. Corrosion of the candidate stainless steels was similarly modest across the entire range of exposures. However, some sensitivity to corrosion of the stainless steels was

  20. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  1. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  2. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  3. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  4. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  5. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  6. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  7. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  8. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  9. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  10. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  11. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  12. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  13. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  14. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  15. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  16. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  17. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  18. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  19. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  20. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. Corrosion resistance of cast irons and titanium alloys as reference engineered metal barriers for use in basalt geologic storage: a literature assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlot, L.A.; Westerman, R.E.

    1981-07-01

    A survey and assessment of the literature on the corrosion resistance of cast irons and low-alloy titanium are presented. Selected engineering properties of cast iron and titanium are briefly described; however, the corrosion resistance of cast iron and titanium in aqueous solutions or in soils and their use in a basalt repository are emphasized. In evaluating the potential use of cast iron and titanium as structural barrier materials for long-lived nuclear waste packages, it is assumed that titanium has the general corrosion resistance to be used in relatively thin cross sections whereas the cost and availability of cast iron allows its use even in very thick cross sections. Based on this assumption, the survey showed that: The uniform corrosion of low-alloy titanium in a basalt environment is expected to be extremely low. A linear extrapolation of general corrosion rates with an added corrosion allowance suggests that a 3.2- to 6.4-mm-thick wall may have a life of 1000 yr. Pitting and crevice corrosion are not likely corrosion modes in basalt ground waters. It is also unlikely that stress corrosion cracking (SCC) will occur in the commercially pure (CP) titanium alloy or in palladiumor molybdenum-alloyed titanium materials. Low-alloy cast irons may be used as barrier metals if the environment surrounding the metal keeps the alloy in the passive range. The solubility of the corrosion product and the semipermeable nature of the oxide film allow significant uniform corrosion over long time periods. A linear extrapolation of high-temperature corrosion rates on carbon steels and corrosion rates of cast irons in soils gives an estimated metal penetration of 51 to 64 mm after 1000 yr. A corrosion allowance of 3 to 5 times that suggests that an acceptable cast iron wall may be from 178 to 305 mm thick. Although they cannot be fully assessed, pitting and crevice corrosion should not affect cast iron due to the ground-water chemistry of basalt

  2. Structural integrity assessment of steam generator tubes deteriorated through primary water stress corrosion cracking in transition region of tube expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silveira, Helvecio Carlos Klinke da

    2002-01-01

    In PWR plants, steam generator tube degradation has been one of the most important economical concerns, besides causing operational safety problems. In this work, a survey of steam generator tube degradation modes is done. Degradation mechanisms and influence factors are introduced and discussed. The importance of stress corrosion cracking, especially in transition region of tube expansion zone, is underlined. The actual steam generator tube plugging criteria are conservative. Proposed alternative criteria are introduced and discussed. Distinction is done to structural integrity assessment of defective tubes. Real data of tube defect indications of axial cracks in expansion transition zone due to primary water stress corrosion cracking are used in analysis. Results allow discussing application aspects of deterministic and probabilistic criteria on structural integrity assessment of tubes with defect indications. Applied models are specifics, but the application of concept may be extended to other steam generator tube degradation modes. (author)

  3. Assessment of NDE Technologies for Detection and Characterization of Stress Corrosion Cracking in LWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Ryan M.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Toloczko, Mychailo B.; Bond, Leonard J.; Montgomery, Robert O.

    2012-12-31

    Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) in light water reactors (LWRs) has been a persistent form of degradation in the nuclear industry. Examples of SCC can be found for a range of materials in boiling and pressurized water reactor environments, including carbon steels, stainless steels, and nickel-base stainless alloys. The evolution of SCC is often characterized by a long initiation stage followed by a phase of more rapid crack growth to failure. This provides a relatively short window of opportunity to detect the start of observable SCC, and it is conceivable that SCC could progress from initiation to failure between subsequent examinations when managed by applying periodic in-service inspection techniques. Implementation of advanced aging management paradigms in the current fleet of LWRs will require adaptation of existing measurement technologies and development of new technologies to perform on-line measurements during reactor operation to ensure timely detection of material degradation and to support the implementation of advanced diagnostics and prognostics. This paper considers several non-destructive examination (NDE) technologies with known sensitivity to detection of indicators for SCC initiation and/or propagation, and assesses these technologies with respect to their ability to detect and accurately characterize the significance of an SCC flaw. Potential strategies to improve SCC inspection or monitoring performance are offered to benefit management of SCC degradation in LWRs.

  4. Implementation of Localized Corrosion in the Performance Assessment Model for Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, V.; SEVOUGIAN, D.S.; MATTIE, P.D.; MACKINNON, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    A total system performance assessment (TSPA) model has been developed to analyze the ability of the natural and engineered barriers of the Yucca Mountain repository to isolate nuclear waste for the 10,000-year period following repository closure. The principal features of the engineered barrier system (EBS) are emplacement tunnels (or ''drifts'') containing a two-layer waste package (WP) for waste containment and a titanium drip shield to protect the waste package from seeping water and falling rock. The 20-mm-thick outer shell of the WP is composed of Alloy 22, a highly corrosion-resistant nickel-based alloy, while the 50-mm inner shell is composed of 316 stainless steel (modified with lower carbon and nitrogen compositions), whose primary purpose is to provide structural strength. The barrier function of the EBS is to isolate the waste from the migrating water with its associated chemical conditions that eventually lead to degradation of the waste packages and mobilization of the radionuclides within the packages

  5. Assessment of NDE technologies for detection and characterization of stress corrosion cracking in LWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, R.M.; Ramuhalli, P.; Toloczko, M.B.; Bond, L.J.; Montgomery, R.O.

    2012-01-01

    Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) in light water reactors (LWRs) has been a persistent form of degradation in the nuclear industry. Examples of SCC can be found for a range of materials in boiling and pressurized water reactor environments, including carbon steels, stainless steels, and nickel-base alloys. The evolution of SCC is often characterized by a long initiation stage followed by a phase of more rapid crack growth to failure. This provides a relatively short window of opportunity to detect the start of observable SCC, and it is conceivable that SCC could progress from initiation to failure between subsequent examinations when managed by applying periodic in-service inspection techniques. Implementation of advanced aging management paradigms in the current fleet of LWRs will require adaptation of existing measurement technologies and development of new technologies to perform on-line measurements during reactor operation to ensure timely detection of material degradation and to support the implementation of advanced diagnostics and prognostics. This paper considers several non-destructive examination (NDE) technologies with known sensitivity to detection of indicators for SCC initiation and/or propagation, and assesses these technologies with respect to their ability to detect and accurately characterize the significance of an SCC flaw. Potential strategies to improve SCC inspection or monitoring performance are offered to benefit management of SCC degradation in LWRs. (author)

  6. Stainless steel waste containers: an assessment of the probability of stress corrosion cracking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wanklyn, J.N.; Naish, C.C.

    1991-06-01

    The paper summarises information obtained from the literature and discussions held with corrosion experts from universities and industry, relevant to the possibility that stainless steel radioactive waste containers containing low level and intermediate level radioactive waste (LLW and ILW) could, when buried in concrete, suffer one or more of the forms of stress corrosion cracking (SCC). Stress corrosion cracking is caused by the simultaneous and synergistic action of a corrosive environment and stress. The initiation and propagation of SCC depend on a number of factors being present, namely a certain level of stress, an environment which will cause cracking and a susceptible metal or alloy. Generally the susceptibility of a metal or alloy to SCC increases as its strength level increases. The susceptibility in a specific environment will depend on: solution concentration, pH, temperature, and electrochemical potential of the metal/alloy. It is concluded that alkaline stress corrosion cracking is unlikely to occur under even the worst case conditions, that chloride stress corrosion cracking is a distinct possibility at the higher end of the temperature range (25-80 o C) and that stress corrosion related to sensitization of the steel will not be a problem for the majority of container material which is less than 5 mm in cross section. Thicker section material could become sensitized leading to a local problem in these areas. Contact with metals that are electrochemically more negative in corrosion potential is likely to reduce the incidence of SCC, at least locally. Measurement of repassivation potentials and rest potentials in solutions of relevant composition would provide a firmer prediction of the extent to which a high pH could reduce the likelihood of SCC caused by chlorides. (author)

  7. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  8. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  9. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  10. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  11. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  12. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  13. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  14. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  15. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  16. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  17. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  18. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  19. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  20. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  1. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  2. Demystifying Controlling Copper Corrosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    The LCR systematically misses the highest health and corrosion risk sites for copper. Additionally, there are growing concerns for WWTP copper in sludges and discharge levels. There are many corrosion control differences between copper and lead. This talk explains the sometimes c...

  3. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  4. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  5. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  6. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  7. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  8. Study on the corrosion assessment of overpack welds-II (Joint research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitsui, Hiroyuki; Otsuki, Akiyoshi; Asano, Hidekazu; Taniguchi, Naoki; Kawakami, Susumu; Yui, Mikazu

    2006-06-01

    The corrosion resistance at the overpack welds is possible to be inferior to that at base metal, so that it has been concerned that a short-term failure of overpack may occur due to the corrosion penetration at the welds. In this study, corrosion mechanisms specific to the welds were extracted for carbon steel which is one of the candidate materials for overpacks. And then the corrosion experiments for welded carbon steel were planed to evaluate long-term integrity of overpack welds. Based on this plan, electrochemical tests for welded carbon steel using the samples welded by EBW and TIG were carried out, and the corrosion behavior of welded zone was compared with that of base metal. The results of anodic polarization tests in 0.01M and 0.1M carbonate aqueous solutions for base metal, heat affected zone and welded metal showed that; As for EBW, the anodic polarization curves were not affected by welding although the metallurgical structures vary with base metal, heat affected zone and welded metal. As for TIG, the current density of welded metal was larger than that of base metal and of heat affected zone, and local dissolution with immediate in current density was observed in 0.01M-pH10 carbonate aqueous solution. As shown in these results, it is expected that the corrosion resistance at the welds by EBW will be equal to that at base metal. As for TIG, however, it was indicated that the corrosion resistance is possible to be lower than base metal. (author)

  9. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  10. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  11. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  12. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  13. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  14. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  15. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  16. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  17. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  18. Program of assessment of mechanical and corrosion mechanical properties of reactor internals materials due to operation conditions in WWERs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruscak, M.; Zamboch, M.

    1998-01-01

    Reactor internals are subject to three principle operation influences: neutron and gamma irradiation, mechanical stresses, both static and dynamic, and coolant chemistry. Several cases of damage have been reported in previous years in both boiling and pressure water reactors. They are linked with the term of irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking as a possible damage mechanism. In WWERs, the principal material used for reactor internals is austenitic titanium stabilized stainless steel 08Kh18N10T, however high strength steels are used as well. To assess the changes of mechanical properties and to determine whether sensitivity to intergranular cracking can be increased by high neutron fluences, the experimental program has been started. The goal is to assure safe operation of the internals as well as life management for all planned operation period. The program consists of tests of material properties, both mechanical and corrosion-mechanical. Detailed neutron fluxes calculation as well as stress and deformation calculations are part of the assessment. Model of change will be proposed in order to plan inspections of the facility. In situ measurements of internals will be used to monitor exact status of structure during operation. Tensile specimens manufactured from both base metal and model weld joint have been irradiated to the total fluences of 3-20 dpa. Changes of mechanical properties are tested by the tensile test, stress corrosion cracking tests are performed in the autoclave with water loop and active loading. Operation temperature, pressure and water chemistry are chosen for the tests. (author)

  19. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  20. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  1. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  2. Key outcomes from risk based assessment of pressure equipment in refineries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firth, D.; Lichti, K.; Hill, T.; Thomas, C.; Widrig, J.; Simmonds, G.; Karstensen, A.

    2012-01-01

    Risk based assessment (RBA) has become the best industry practice for management of pressure equipment reliability. Application of RBA programs significantly reduces risk and gives opportunity to optimize inspection programs and produce long term financial benefits. Quest Integrity Group have implemented risk based inspection programs n a variety of industries including ammonia, methanol, geothermal power, :combined cycle power, gas turbines, gas production facilities and refineries. This paper outlines the semi quantitative RBA procedures that have been followed and lists some of the specific technical outcomes. Advanced inspection and life assessment methods used in support of RBI in refineries ire discussed. Piping in refineries is a key risk issue and it is not uncommon for piping failures to result in major incidents. Specific inspection programs are available to monitor differing damage processes such as flow assisted corrosion, hydrogen damage and corrosion under insulation. During assessment it s often found that numerous pipes have never been inspected especially underground smaller diameter pipes which are frequently considered to be un-piggable using conventional technologies and difficult to inspect. Advanced high accuracy flexible miniaturized ultrasonic intelligent pigging combined with fitness for service assessment such as Invista TM is recommended for inspection of critical pipelines which previously have been un-piggable. The processing of crude oil from a range of sources can result in significant variations in the levels of contaminants such as chlorides and sulfides. Major failures have occurred as a result of very rapid increases in corrosion rates in hydrotreating processes due to rapid changes in chemistry. The outcome of the assessment of plants that have potentially high and variable levels of contaminants often results in a review the process chemistry, how it is monitored and development of a detailed corrosion monitoring program. Fired

  3. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  4. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  5. Risk assessment associated to possible concrete degradation of a near surface disposal facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, B.; Billard, Y.; Wacquier, W.; Gens, R.

    2013-07-01

    This article outlines a risk analysis of possible concrete degradation performed in the framework of the preparation of the Safety Report of ONDRAF/NIRAS, the Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials, for the construction and operation of a near surface disposal facility of category A waste - short-lived low and intermediate level waste - in Dessel. The main degradation mechanism considered is the carbonation of different concrete components over different periods (from the building phase up to 2000 years), which induces corrosion of the rebars. A dedicated methodology mixing risk analysis and numerical modeling of concrete carbonation has been developed to assess the critical risks of the disposal facility at different periods. According to the results obtained, risk mapping was used to assess the impact of carbonation of concrete on the different components at the different stages. The most important risk is related to an extreme situation with complete removal of the earth cover and side embankment.

  6. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  7. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  8. Corrosion assessment and enhanced biocompatibility analysis of biodegradable magnesium-based alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompa, Luis Enrique

    Magnesium alloys have raised immense interest to many researchers because of its evolution as a new third generation material. Due to their biocompatibility, density, and mechanical properties, magnesium alloys are frequently reported as prospective biodegradable implant materials. Moreover, magnesium based alloys experience a natural phenomena to biodegrade in aqueous solutions due to its corrosive activity, which is excellent for orthopedic and cardiovascular applications. However, major concerns with such alloys are fast and non-uniform corrosion degradation. Controlling the degradation rate in the physiological environment determines the success of an implant. In this investigation, three grades of magnesium alloys: AZ31B, AZ91E and ZK60A were studied for their corrosion resistance and biocompatibility. Scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy and contact angle meter are used to study surface morphology, chemistry, roughness and wettability, respectively. Additionally, the cytotoxicity of the leached metal ions was evaluated by a tetrazolium based bio-assay, MTS.

  9. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  10. Assessment of high performance concrete containing fly ash and calcium nitrite based corrosion inhibitor as a mean to prevent the corrosion of reinforcing steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montes-García, P; Jiménez-Quero, V; López-Calvo, H

    2015-01-01

    This research analyses the effectiveness of the water-to-cement ratio (w/c), fly ash and a calcium nitrite based corrosion inhibitor to prevent the corrosion of reinforcing steel embedded in high performance concrete. The interactive effect between the inhibitor and fly ash was evaluated because the occurrence of a negative effect when both ingredients are added together in a concrete mixture has been reported. All the concrete mixtures studied in this investigation had 8.2% of silica fume. Twenty seven prismatic concrete specimens were fabricated with dimensions of 55 × 230 × 300 mm each containing two steel rods embedded for the purpose of corrosion monitoring. The specimens were exposed to a simulated marine environment with two daily cycles of wetting and drying for one year. To evaluate the deterioration of the specimens corrosion potentials and linear polarization resistance tests were carried out. The results indicate that the use of a low w/c, the addition of fly ash and the addition of the corrosion inhibitor contributed to the reduction of the corrosion of steel in the concrete specimens. The results further suggest that the combination of fly ash and corrosion inhibitor does not promote the deterioration of the concrete matrix

  11. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  12. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  13. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  14. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  15. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  16. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  17. Vertical impedance measurements on concrete bridge decks for assessing susceptibility of reinforcing steel to corrosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholomew, Paul D.; Guthrie, W. Spencer; Mazzeo, Brian A.

    2012-08-01

    Corrosion is a pressing problem for aging concrete infrastructure, especially bridge decks. Because of its sensitivity to factors that affect corrosion of reinforcing steel in concrete, resistivity is an important structural health indicator for reinforced concrete structures. In this research, an instrument was developed to measure vertical impedance on concrete bridge decks. Measurements of vertical impedance on slabs prepared in the laboratory, on slabs removed from decommissioned bridge decks, and on an in-service bridge deck in the field demonstrate the utility of the new apparatus.

  18. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  19. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  20. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  1. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  2. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  3. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  4. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  5. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  6. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  7. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  8. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  9. Science and judgment in risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants

    .... This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments...

  10. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  11. Implementation of condition-dependent probabilistic risk assessment using surveillance data on passive components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewandowski, Radoslaw; Denning, Richard; Aldemir, Tunc; Zhang, Jinsuo

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Condition-dependent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). • Time-dependent characterization of plant-specific risk. • Containment bypass involving in secondary system piping and SCC in SG tubes. - Abstract: A great deal of surveillance data are collected for a nuclear power plant that reflect the changing condition of the plant as it ages. Although surveillance data are used to determine failure probabilities of active components for the plant’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and to indicate the need for maintenance activities, they are not used in a structured manner to characterize the evolving risk of the plant. The present study explores the feasibility of using a condition-dependent PRA framework that takes a first principles approach to modeling the progression of degradation mechanisms to characterize evolving risk, periodically adapting the model to account for surveillance results. A case study is described involving a potential containment bypass accident sequence due to the progression of flow-accelerated corrosion in secondary system piping and stress corrosion cracking of steam generator tubes. In this sequence, a steam line break accompanied by failure to close of a main steam isolation valve results in depressurization of the steam generator and induces the rupture of one or more faulted steam generator tubes. The case study indicates that a condition-dependent PRA framework might be capable of providing early identification of degradation mechanisms important to plant risk.

  12. Methodology for assessing the probability of corrosion in concrete structures on the basis of half-cell potential and concrete resistivity measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadowski, Lukasz

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, the corrosion of steel reinforcement has become a major problem in the construction industry. Therefore, much attention has been given to developing methods of predicting the service life of reinforced concrete structures. The progress of corrosion cannot be visually assessed until a crack or a delamination appears. The corrosion process can be tracked using several electrochemical techniques. Most commonly the half-cell potential measurement technique is used for this purpose. However, it is generally accepted that it should be supplemented with other techniques. Hence, a methodology for assessing the probability of corrosion in concrete slabs by means of a combination of two methods, that is, the half-cell potential method and the concrete resistivity method, is proposed. An assessment of the probability of corrosion in reinforced concrete structures carried out using the proposed methodology is presented. 200 mm thick 750 mm  ×  750 mm reinforced concrete slab specimens were investigated. Potential E corr and concrete resistivity ρ in each point of the applied grid were measured. The experimental results indicate that the proposed methodology can be successfully used to assess the probability of corrosion in concrete structures.

  13. Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Corrosion in Concrete Structures on the Basis of Half-Cell Potential and Concrete Resistivity Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukasz Sadowski

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the corrosion of steel reinforcement has become a major problem in the construction industry. Therefore, much attention has been given to developing methods of predicting the service life of reinforced concrete structures. The progress of corrosion cannot be visually assessed until a crack or a delamination appears. The corrosion process can be tracked using several electrochemical techniques. Most commonly the half-cell potential measurement technique is used for this purpose. However, it is generally accepted that it should be supplemented with other techniques. Hence, a methodology for assessing the probability of corrosion in concrete slabs by means of a combination of two methods, that is, the half-cell potential method and the concrete resistivity method, is proposed. An assessment of the probability of corrosion in reinforced concrete structures carried out using the proposed methodology is presented. 200 mm thick 750 mm  ×  750 mm reinforced concrete slab specimens were investigated. Potential Ecorr and concrete resistivity ρ in each point of the applied grid were measured. The experimental results indicate that the proposed methodology can be successfully used to assess the probability of corrosion in concrete structures.

  14. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  15. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  16. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  17. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  18. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvin, B.N.

    1996-01-01

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  19. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  20. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  1. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  2. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  3. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  4. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  5. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  8. Corrosion cracking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goel, V.S.

    1985-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a conference on alloy corrosion cracking. Topics considered at the conference included the effect of niobium addition on intergranular stress corrosion cracking, corrosion-fatigue cracking in fossil-fueled-boilers, fracture toughness, fracture modes, hydrogen-induced thresholds, electrochemical and hydrogen permeation studies, the effect of seawater on fatigue crack propagation of wells for offshore structures, the corrosion fatigue of carbon steels in seawater, and stress corrosion cracking and the mechanical strength of alloy 600

  9. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  10. An assessment of thermal spray coating technologies for high temperature corrosion protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heath, G.R.; Heimgartner, P.; Gustafsson, S.; Irons, G.; Miller, R.

    1997-01-01

    The use of thermally sprayed coatings in combating high temperature corrosion continues to grow in the major industries of chemical, waste incineration, power generation and pulp and paper. This has been driven partially by the development of corrosion resistant alloys, improved knowledge and quality in the thermal spray industry and continued innovation in thermal spray equipment. There exists today an extensive range of thermal spray process options, often with the same alloy solution. In demanding corrosion applications it is not sufficient to just specify alloy and coating method. For the production of reliable coatings the whole coating production envelope needs to be considered, including alloy selection, spray parameters, surface preparation, base metal properties, heat input etc. Combustion, arc-wire, plasma, HVOF and spray+fuse techniques are reviewed and compared in terms of their strengths and limitations to provide cost-effective solutions for high temperature corrosion protection. Arc wire spraying, HP/HVOF and spray+fuse are emerging as the most promising techniques to optimise both coating properties and economic/practical aspects. (orig.)

  11. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  13. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  14. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  15. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  16. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  17. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  18. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  19. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  20. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  1. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  2. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  3. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  4. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  5. Corrosion fatigue of steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spaehn, H.; Wagner, G.H.

    1976-01-01

    Corrosion fatigue phenomena can be classified into two main groups according to the electrochemical state of the metal surface in the presence of electrolytes: the active and the passive state with an important sub-group of corrosion fatigue in the unstable passive state. The allowable stress for structures exposed to the conjoint action of corrosion and fatigue is influenced by many factors: kind of media, number of cycles, frequency, mean stress, size, notches, loading mode, alloy composition and mechanical strength. A critical literature review shows contradictory results if a classification by the electrochemical surface state is not applied. Case histories and counter measures illustrate the practical importance of corrosion fatigue in many branches of industry as well as the urgent need for a better knowledge about the mutual influence of the phenomena to get rules by which the engineer can appraise the risk of corrosion fatigue. (orig.) [de

  6. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  7. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  8. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  9. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  10. Corrosion engineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fontana, M.G.

    1986-01-01

    This book emphasizes the engineering approach to handling corrosion. It presents corrosion data by corrosives or environments rather than by materials. It discusses the corrosion engineering of noble metals, ''exotic'' metals, non-metallics, coatings, mechanical properties, and corrosion testing, as well as modern concepts. New sections have been added on fracture mechanics, laser alloying, nuclear waste isolation, solar energy, geothermal energy, and the Statue of Liberty. Special isocorrosion charts, developed by the author, are introduced as a quick way to look at candidates for a particular corrosive.

  11. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  12. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  13. Electrochemical assessing corrosion inhibiting effects of zinc aluminum polyphosphate (ZAPP) as a modified zinc phosphate pigment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naderi, R.; Attar, M.M.

    2008-01-01

    Undesirable anti-corrosion performance of zinc phosphate pigment, the classical chromate replacement, has led researchers to take modification into account. Polyphosphate-based anti-corrosion pigments as a result of modification of zinc orthophosphate have been found to function much more efficiently. This study aimed to evaluate performance of steel samples immersed in 3.5% NaCl aqueous solution-containing zinc aluminum polyphosphate (ZAPP) pigment extract compared to those involving conventional zinc phosphate (ZP) pigment extract and also no pigment (blank) using electrochemical tests such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and linear polarization (LP) as well as surface analysis. Impedance spectra and polarization curves revealed two different trends, showing the superiority of ZAPP pigment. Based on the results of scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX), presence of a precipitated layer on the surface was confirmed when steel sample was immersed into the solution-containing ZAPP

  14. Predictions and implications of a poisson process model to describe corrosion of transuranic waste drums

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyon, B.F.; Holmes, J.A.; Wilbert, K.A.

    1995-01-01

    A risk assessment methodology is described in this paper to compare risks associated with immediate or near-term retrieval of transuranic (TRU) waste drums from bermed storage versus delayed retrieval. Assuming a Poisson process adequately describes corrosion, significant breaching of drums is expected to begin at - 15 and 24 yr for pitting and general corrosion, respectively. Because of this breaching, more risk will be incurred by delayed than by immediate retrieval

  15. An Assessment of Alternative Diesel Fuels: Microbiological Contamination and Corrosion Under Storage Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-01

    and B20) In experiments with additions of distilled water, all fuels supported biofilm formation Changes in the water pH did not correlate with...ULSD) and blends of ULSD and B100 (B5 and B20). In experiments with additions of distilled water, all fuels supported biofilm formation . Changes in...corrosion; diesel; biodiesel; biofouling; MIC; carbon steel ; aluminum; stainless steel Introduction Microbial contamination of hydrocarbon fuels

  16. Cashew Nut Testa Tannin: Assessing its Effects on the Corrosion of Aluminium in HCl

    OpenAIRE

    Nnaji, Nnaemeka J. N; Obi-Egbedi, Nelson O; Okoye, Chukwuma O. B

    2014-01-01

    Cashew nut testa tannin (CASTAN) has been found to inhibit the corrosion of aluminium in hydrochloric acid solutions using gravimetric, thermometric and UV/visible spectrophotometric techniques. CASTAN inhibition was by adsorption on aluminium following Temkin isotherm in 0.1 M HCl and Langmuir isotherm in 0.5 M and 2.0 M HCl at 303 Kelvin. Physical adsorption on aluminium has been proposed in studied HCl solutions; therefore, CASTAN is a cathodic inhibitor. Earlier reports (1) showed CASTAN ...

  17. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  18. Electrical-conductivity measurements of leachates for the rapid assessment of wasteform corrosion resistance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sales, B.C.; Petek, M.; Boatner, L.A.

    1982-01-01

    Measurements of the electrical conductivity of leachate solutions as a function of time can be used as an efficient, informative means of evaluation and comparison in the development of nuclear waste forms and in the preliminary analysis of their corrosion resistance in distilled water. Three separate applications of this technique are described in this work. These are: (1) its use in the optimization of the corrosion resistance of a crystalline wasteform (monazite); (2) a study of the protective ability of the surface layer (gel layer) which forms on the nuclear waste glass Frit 21 + 20 wt % SRW in distilled water; and (3) making comparisons of the overall corrosion resistance of three different nuclear wasteforms (i.e., monazite, SYNROC, and borosilicate glass). A complete solution analysis of the borosilicate glass leachate and a straightforward analysis of the conductivity results agree to within +-20%. In the absence of a complete, time consuming solution analysis, conductivity measurements can be used to estimate reliably the total ionic concentration in the leachate to within a factor of 2

  19. A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

  20. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  1. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  2. Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoddinott, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  3. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  4. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  5. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  7. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  8. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  9. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  10. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  11. Risks assessment and comparison: Interest and feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Rene

    1989-01-01

    Comparative risk assessment and risk management have become a real discipline, requiring a scientific approach. This is due to the increasing need to take account of risks in the decision processes together with other economic, social or political considerations. Although the notion of risk is generally associated with emergency situations, it seems necessary to pay more attention to those situations which are considered as normal situations but could be responsible for a significant part of the observed health effects. In this context, a research programme entitled Programme Grand Delta has been developed at a regional level: its aim is to provide a clear and simple representation of the risks to which the population living in this area is exposed. (author)

  12. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  13. Environmental health risk assessment: Energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Somers, E.; Winthrop, S.O.

    1984-01-01

    Most industrialized nations have come to rely on a variety of systems for energy production, both of a conventional and non-conventional nature. In the paper, the spectrum of energy systems currently in use in Canada is outlined along with their potential health risks. Several examples of environmental health studies involving both outdoor and indoor air pollution related to energy production in Canada are reported. The limitations of current technologies for assessing health risks are discussed and possible approaches to managing energy related health risks are indicated. (author)

  14. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  15. Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

  16. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  17. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  18. Increased bioclogging and corrosion risk by sulfate addition during iodine recovery at a natural gas production plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Choon-Ping; Zhao, Dan; Takase, Yuta; Miyanaga, Kazuhiko; Watanabe, Tomoko; Tomoe, Yasuyoshi; Tanji, Yasunori

    2011-02-01

    Iodine recovery at a natural gas production plant in Japan involved the addition of sulfuric acid for pH adjustment, resulting in an additional about 200 mg/L of sulfate in the waste brine after iodine recovery. Bioclogging occurred at the waste brine injection well, causing a decrease in well injectivity. To examine the factors that contribute to bioclogging, an on-site experiment was conducted by amending 10 L of brine with different conditions and then incubating the brine for 5 months under open air. The control case was exposed to open air but did not receive additional chemicals. When sulfate addition was coupled with low iodine, there was a drastic increase in the total amount of accumulated biomass (and subsequently the risk of bioclogging) that was nearly six times higher than the control. The bioclogging-associated corrosion rate of carbon steel was 84.5 μm/year, which is four times higher than that observed under other conditions. Analysis of the microbial communities by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis revealed that the additional sulfate established a sulfur cycle and induced the growth of phototrophic bacteria, including cyanobacteria and purple bacteria. In the presence of sulfate and low iodine levels, cyanobacteria and purple bacteria bloomed, and the accumulation of abundant biomass may have created a more conducive environment for anaerobic sulfate-reducing bacteria. It is believed that the higher corrosion rate was caused by a differential aeration cell that was established by the heterogeneous distribution of the biomass that covered the surface of the test coupons.

  19. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  20. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  1. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  2. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  3. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  5. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  6. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  7. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  9. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  10. Preliminary risk assessments of the small HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.

    1985-05-01

    Preliminary investment and safety risk assessments were performed for a preconceptual design of a four-module 250-MW(t) side-by-side steel-vessel pebble bed HTGR plant. Broad event spectra were analyzed involving component damage resulting in unscheduled plant outages and fission product releases resulting in offsite doses. The preliminary assessment indicates at this stage of the design that two categories of events govern the investment risk envelope: primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plate-out activity that contaminates the confinement and turbogenerator damage which involves extensive turbine blade failure. Primary coolant leaks are important contributors because associated cleanup and decontamination requirements result in longer outages that arise from other events with comparable frequencies. Turbogenerator damage is the salient low-frequency investment risk accident due to the relatively long outages being experienced in the industry. Thermal transients are unimportant investment risk contributors because pressurized core heatups cause little damage, and depressurized core heatups occur at negligible frequencies relative to the forced outage goal. These preliminary results demonstrate investment and safety risk goal compliance at this stage in the design process. Studies are continuing in order to provide valuable insights into risk-significant events to assure a balanced approach to meeting user and regulatory requirements

  11. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  12. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides,

  13. An approach to security risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  14. Next generation of microbiological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den Heidy M.W.; Amézquita, Alejandro; Bover-Cid, Sara; Dagnas, Stéphane; Ellouze, Mariem; Guillou, Sandrine; Nychas, George; O'Mahony, Cian; Pérez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Membré, Jeanne Marie

    2017-01-01

    In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now

  15. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  16. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  17. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  18. Assessment of corrosion characteristics and development of remedial technologies in nuclear materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Joung Soo; Kim, H. P.; Lim, Y. S. and others

    2005-04-01

    Main components and structures in nuclear power plants generally use materials having superior resistance to corrosion. Since the damages related to corrosion have become a menace to the safety of NPPs as well as economical loss and the steam generator tubing forming a boundary between the primary and secondary sides of NPPs is one of the main components that are most damaged by corrosion, it is strongly required to verify the mechanisms of the steam generator tubing degradations, to develop remedial techniques for the degradations, to manage the damages, and to develop techniques for the extension of the plant's life. In this study, the PWSCC characteristics of the archived steam generator tube materials in the domestic NPPs were evaluated and the databases of the obtained results were established. Also, the PWSCC characteristics of the welding material, Alloy 182, for Alloy 600, were evaluated. To verify the damage mechanisms of the circumferential SCC occurring in the expansion transition region of the tubes in the Korean standard NPPS, the evaluation technique for the residual stresses in the expanded region was acquired. A procedure of the inhibition technique for the SCC occurring in the secondary side of steam generators and a model for estimating the safety of damaged tubes by the structural leakage were developed, by which the fundamental technologies for the safe operations of NPPs, the management of the damages, and the expansion of the plant life were acquired. The material improvement technique for the integrity enhancement of tubes was developed. Along with the development of the Ni-coating technique the evaluation of the properties such as mechanical and SCC properties of the coated film was performed

  19. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  20. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  1. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  2. AN ASSESSMENT OF THE SERVICE HISTORY AND CORROSION SUSCEPTIBILITY OF TYPE IV WASTE TANKS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiersma, B

    2008-01-01

    Type IV waste tanks were designed and built to store waste that does not require auxiliary cooling. Each Type IV tank is a single-shell tank constructed of a steel-lined pre-stressed concrete tank in the form of a vertical cylinder with a concrete domed roof. There are four such tanks in F-area, Tanks 17-20F, and four in H-Area, Tanks 21-24H. Leak sites were discovered in the liners for Tanks 19 and 20F in the 1980's. Although these leaks were visually observed, the investigation to determine the mechanism by which the leaks had occurred was not completed at that time. Therefore, a concern was raised that the same mechanism which caused the leak sites in the Tanks in F-area may also be operable in the H-Area tanks. Data from the construction of the tanks (i.e., certified mill test reports for the steel, no stress-relief), the service history (i.e., waste sample data, temperature data), laboratory tests on actual wastes and simulants (i.e., electrochemical testing), and the results of the visual inspections were reviewed. The following observations and conclusions were made: (1) Comparison of the compositional and microstructural features indicate that the A212 material utilized for construction of the H-Area tanks are far more resistant to SCC than the A285 materials used for construction of the F-Area tanks. (2) A review of the materials of construction, temperature history, service histories concluded that F-Area tanks likely failed by caustic stress corrosion cracking. (3) The environment in the F-Area tanks was more aggressive than that experienced by the H-Area tanks. (4) Based on a review of the service history, the H-Area tanks have not been exposed to an environment that would render the tanks susceptible to either nitrate stress corrosion cracking (i.e., the cause of failures in the Type I and II tanks) or caustic stress corrosion cracking. (5) Due to the very dilute and uninhibited solutions that have been stored in Tank 23H, vapor space corrosion has

  3. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  4. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2017-10-19

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  5. Cancer risk assessments and environmental regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scroggin, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Governmental regulation of toxic substances, such as carcinogens and radiation, prompts both legal and scientific controversies. Industry, environmental activist groups, government regulators, and the general public are all concerned with the question of how environmental risk to public health is to be measured and what level of risk warrants government action under the environmental laws. Several recent events shed light on the fundamental scientific and legal problems inherent in such regulation, and these events may affect the direction of future developments. These events include implementation of generic Risk Assessment Guidelines by the US EPA, litigation challenging EPA's regulation of carcinogenic substances, new scientific understanding of the relative risks from human exposure to natural and man-made sources, and the continuing growth of toxic tort litigation in which victims of cancer seek large damages from industrial emitters of pollution

  6. New approaches in human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009-2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

  7. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Abass

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu.

  8. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  9. Long-term prediction of reinforced concrete structures - Use of thermodynamic data to assess steel corrosion in carbonated concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huet, Bruno [Laboratoire d' Etude du Comportement des Betons et Argiles, DEN/DPC/SCCME/LECBA, Bat. 158, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette cedex (France)]|[Laboratoire de Physico-Chimie Industrielle, LPCI, INSA de Lyon, Bat. Leonard de Vinci, 20 av. Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne cedex (France); L' Hostis, Valerie; Le Bescop, Patrick [Laboratoire d' Etude du Comportement des Betons et Argiles, DEN/DPC/SCCME/LECBA, Bat. 158, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette cedex (France); Idrissi, Hassane [Laboratoire de Physico-Chimie Industrielle, LPCI, INSA de Lyon, Bat. Leonard de Vinci, 20 av. Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne cedex (France)

    2004-07-01

    In the context of the prediction of the long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures involved in the nuclear waste storage, the corrosion mechanisms of the steels have to be assessed and modelled. When nuclear wastes are embedded in reinforced concrete containers, the chemical environment of the reinforcement is progressively modified, due to the diffusion of the carbonation front inside the concrete matrix. This modification leads to the variation of the properties of the iron oxides formed at the steel/concrete interface, and the active corrosion can be initiated. In order to understand and modelled the mechanisms of steel corrosion in concrete, the equilibrium of two main systems must be separately described with the help of thermodynamic data issued from the literature: - The mineral phases, lime and calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H), in equilibrium with the pore solution during the propagation of the carbonation front; - The iron oxides in equilibrium with the aqueous solution. For this purpose, the nature of aqueous species present in the pore solution was calculated in the whole range of pH encountered during the cement paste degradation by carbonation. As a matter of fact, as the pH decreases, calcium concentration decreases and silicates concentration increases due to the calcium carbonate formation and C-S-H dissolution. The pH of a carbonated concrete ranges between 8.3 and 10, depending on the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the porosity and the conversion degree of carbonation. In this pH range, the iron oxides equilibria were analysed as a function of the redox potential and aqueous species (carbonates and sulphates present in the solution) present inside the solution. In a reductive solution and in presence of carbonates, the high solubility of iron oxides may prevent passivation or generate the dissolution of the passive film. Moreover, the relevance of thermodynamics calculations has been confirmed by corrosion tests of mild steel

  10. Long-term prediction of reinforced concrete structures - Use of thermodynamic data to assess steel corrosion in carbonated concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huet, Bruno; L'Hostis, Valerie; Le Bescop, Patrick; Idrissi, Hassane

    2004-01-01

    In the context of the prediction of the long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures involved in the nuclear waste storage, the corrosion mechanisms of the steels have to be assessed and modelled. When nuclear wastes are embedded in reinforced concrete containers, the chemical environment of the reinforcement is progressively modified, due to the diffusion of the carbonation front inside the concrete matrix. This modification leads to the variation of the properties of the iron oxides formed at the steel/concrete interface, and the active corrosion can be initiated. In order to understand and modelled the mechanisms of steel corrosion in concrete, the equilibrium of two main systems must be separately described with the help of thermodynamic data issued from the literature: - The mineral phases, lime and calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H), in equilibrium with the pore solution during the propagation of the carbonation front; - The iron oxides in equilibrium with the aqueous solution. For this purpose, the nature of aqueous species present in the pore solution was calculated in the whole range of pH encountered during the cement paste degradation by carbonation. As a matter of fact, as the pH decreases, calcium concentration decreases and silicates concentration increases due to the calcium carbonate formation and C-S-H dissolution. The pH of a carbonated concrete ranges between 8.3 and 10, depending on the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the porosity and the conversion degree of carbonation. In this pH range, the iron oxides equilibria were analysed as a function of the redox potential and aqueous species (carbonates and sulphates present in the solution) present inside the solution. In a reductive solution and in presence of carbonates, the high solubility of iron oxides may prevent passivation or generate the dissolution of the passive film. Moreover, the relevance of thermodynamics calculations has been confirmed by corrosion tests of mild steel

  11. Risk assessment in man and mouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Gallistel, Charles R

    2009-02-17

    Human and mouse subjects tried to anticipate at which of 2 locations a reward would appear. On a randomly scheduled fraction of the trials, it appeared with a short latency at one location; on the complementary fraction, it appeared after a longer latency at the other location. Subjects of both species accurately assessed the exogenous uncertainty (the probability of a short versus a long trial) and the endogenous uncertainty (from the scalar variability in their estimates of an elapsed duration) to compute the optimal target latency for a switch from the short- to the long-latency location. The optimal latency was arrived at so rapidly that there was no reliably discernible improvement over trials. Under these nonverbal conditions, humans and mice accurately assess risks and behave nearly optimally. That this capacity is well-developed in the mouse opens up the possibility of a genetic approach to the neurobiological mechanisms underlying risk assessment.

  12. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  13. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  14. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  15. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  16. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  17. An assessment of the waterside corrosion and hydrogen pick-up in the zircaloy-2 pressure tubes of PHWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sah, D.N.

    1992-01-01

    In view of the deleterious effect of hydriding on the operating life of zircaloy-2 pressure tubes in PHWRs there is an urgent need for the assessment of the status of the pressure tubes with respect to corrosion and hydrogen pick-up in the operating PHWRs. A model has been developed for analysing the waterside corrosion and hydrogen pick-up in the zircaloy-2 pressure tubes under reactor operating conditions. This model predicts the axial profiles of oxide layer thickness and hydrogen pick-up in the pressure tubes as a function of the operating time of the reactor. The prediction of hydrogen pick-up by the model in the F-10 pressure tube of RAPS-I have been found to be in good agreement with the measured value of hydrogen content. This report gives a brief description of the model and its predictions on the present status of hydrogen pick-up in the pressure tubes of lead reactor RAPS-II. (author). 6 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

  18. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  19. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roger Skinner

    1992-01-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  20. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skinner, Roger

    1992-07-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential.

  1. A microbial identification framework for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernatchez, Stéphane; Anoop, Valar; Saikali, Zeina; Breton, Marie

    2018-06-01

    Micro-organisms are increasingly used in a variety of products for commercial uses, including cleaning products. Such microbial-based cleaning products (MBCP) are represented as a more environmentally-friendly alternative to chemically based cleaning products. The identity of the micro-organisms formulated into these products is often considered confidential business information and is not revealed or it is only partly revealed (i.e., identification to the genus, not to the species). That paucity of information complicates the evaluation of the risk associated with their use. The accurate taxonomic identification of those micro-organisms is important so that a suitable risk assessment of the products can be conducted. To alleviate difficulties associated with adequate identification of micro-organisms in MBCP and other products containing micro-organisms, a microbial identification framework for risk assessment (MIFRA) has been elaborated. It serves to provide guidance on a polyphasic tiered approach, combining the data obtained from the use of various methods (i.e., polyphasic approach) combined with the sequential selection of the methods (i.e., tiered) to achieve a satisfactory identity of the micro-organism to an acceptable taxonomic level. The MIFRA is suitable in various risk assessment contexts for micro-organisms used in any commercial product. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Quantitative risk assessment of drinking water contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cothern, C.R.; Coniglio, W.A.; Marcus, W.L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of criteria and standards for the regulation of drinking water contaminants involves a variety of processes, one of which is risk estimation. This estimation process, called quantitative risk assessment, involves combining data on the occurrence of the contaminant in drinking water and its toxicity. The human exposure to a contaminant can be estimated from occurrence data. Usually the toxicity or number of health effects per concentration level is estimated from animal bioassay studies using the multistage model. For comparison, other models will be used including the Weibull, probit, logit and quadratic ones. Because exposure and toxicity data are generally incomplete, assumptions need to be made and this generally results in a wide range of certainty in the estimates. This range can be as wide as four to six orders of magnitude in the case of the volatile organic compounds in drinking water and a factor of four to five for estimation of risk due to radionuclides in drinking water. As examples of the differences encountered in risk assessment of drinking water contaminants, discussions are presented on benzene, lead, radon and alachlor. The lifetime population risk estimates for these contaminants are, respectively, in the ranges of: <1 - 3000, <1 - 8000, 2000-40,000 and <1 - 80. 11 references, 1 figure, 1 table

  3. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  4. A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions

  5. Recent developments in carcinogenic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Murdoch, D.; Withey, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, recent developments in the quantitative assessment of carcinogenic risks based on toxicological and epidemiological data are reviewed. In particular, model-free approaches to low-dose risk assessment which involve only the assumption of low-dose linearity are considered. Measures of carcinogenic potency which avoid the need to extrapolate to low doses are also described. The allometric bases for converting risk estimates between species are then discussed. Pharmacokinetic models for determining the dose delivered to the target tissue are examined, and the implications of using such models in extrapolating between doses, of exposure, and species are examined. The application of these concepts in chemical and radiation carcinogenesis is illustrated by means of brief case studies of methylene chloride and Rn. Biologically motivated cancer models based on the initiation-promotion-progression theory of carcinogenesis are discussed and compared with the classical multistage model. The estimation of risks with time-dependent exposure patterns is considered, and conditions under which the use of a time-weighted average dose is appropriate are identified. Finally, the estimation of carcinogenic risks posed by exposure to complex mixtures is explored. 92 references

  6. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  7. Monitoring and modeling stress corrosion and corrosion fatigue damage in nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andresen, P.L.; Ford, F.P.; Solomon, H.D.; Taylor, D.F.

    1990-01-01

    Stress corrosion and corrosion fatigue are significant problems in many industries, causing economic penalties from decreased plant availability and component repair or replacement. In nuclear power reactors, environmental cracking occurs in a wide variety of components, including reactor piping and steam generator tubing, bolting materials and pressure vessels. Life assessment for these components is complicated by the belief that cracking is quite irreproducible. Indeed, for conditions which were once viewed as nominally similar, orders of magnitude variability in crack growth rates are observed for stress corrosion and corrosion fatigue of stainless steels and low-alloy steels in 288 degrees C water. This paper shows that design and life prediction approaches are destined to be overly conservative or to risk environmental failure if life is predicted by quantifying only the effects of mechanical parameters and/or simply ignoring or aggregating environmental and material variabilities. Examples include the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) disposition line for stress-corrosion cracking of stainless steel in boiling water reactor (BWR) water and the American Society of Mechanical Engineers' Section XI lines for corrosion fatigue

  8. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, W.C.

    1984-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  9. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    to a wide range of technical limitations. For instance, serious knowledge gaps remain within e.g. the detection of NM in the environment, developing adequate testing equipment and protocols, and toxicity endpoints (Grieger et al., 2009). In the past few years, many scientists and organizations have...... considered. Furthermore, we recommend the use of biomonitoring in some environmental ‘hot spots’ to serve as early warning detectors while the field of NM environmental risk assessment matures, as recommended in our previous work. Ultimately, this analysis may aid the advancement of environmental risk...

  10. A risk assessment of the SAFR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, P.D.; Mills, J.C.; Lancet, R.T.; Nourjah, P.

    1987-01-01

    The Sodium Advanced Fast Reactor (SAFR) is a modular, advanced concept, Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR), funded by the U.S., and designed by Rockwell International, Bechtel Corporation, and Combustion Engineering. SAFR utilizes the inherently safe features of small fast reactors, including natural convection decay heat removal systems, a self-actuated shutdown system (SASS) and inherent core response to design basis events without scram including transient overpower (TOP), loss of flow (LOF), and loss of heat sink (LOHS) events. A Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed which demonstrates considerable reduction in plant and public risk compared to current commercial reactors. (orig./HSCH)

  11. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haigh, R [Industrial Medicine and Hygiene Unit Health and Safety Directorate, Directorate-General Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg (Luxembourg)

    1992-07-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live{exclamation_point} The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die{exclamation_point}. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk

  12. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigh, R.

    1992-01-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live! The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die!. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk assessment in one country alone or to

  13. Ionizing radiation risk assessment, BEIR IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-10-01

    This report of the Subpanel discusses the potential impact on Federal agencies and indicates individual risk factors that could be used by them in risk assessment. The approach used in this CIRRPC report was to consider the risk factors presented in BEIR IV for each radionuclide (or group radioelements) and to make some judgments regarding their validity and/or the uncertainties involved. The coverage of Radon-222 and its progeny dominated the BEIR IV report and this Subpanel felt is was proper to devote more attention to this radionuclide family. This risk factor presented in BEIR IV for radon is 350 cancer deaths per million person-working level months (WLM) of exposure for a lifetime. There is a range of opinions on the conversion from WLM to absorbed dose. As discussed in the text, the use of the WLM concept makes it difficult or infeasible to compare the risk factor for radon with that of other radionuclides which are based on organ dose. This report also includes a discussion of certain fundamental scientific and operational issues that may have decisive effect upon risk factor selection. These adjunct items are dealt with under separate headings and include discussions of threshold dose considerations, extrapolation to low doses, and age at exposure

  14. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  15. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  16. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  17. Health risk assessment for program managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jump, R.A.; Williamson, D.S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a sensitivity analysis into the independent variables that determine the levels of health risks posed by buried plutonium and americium at a typical contaminated site in an arid region. Environmental Restoration Program Managers often must make decisions concerning cleanup levels, remediation alternatives, schedules, cost estimates, etc. based upon extraordinarily safe assumptions about risk assessment calculation inputs. This study reveals to the Program Manager which variables are major drivers to the calculated levels of risk posed by transuranic radionuclides and which ones have second order effects or less. The findings of this study should indicate which inputs should be the focus of attention during negotiations with regulators and of further empirical investigation

  18. Assessing the risk of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, E.G.; McCullough, R.S.; Meyerhof, D.P.; Somers, E.; Waight, P.J.

    1981-01-01

    The current concern with diminishing supplies of non-renewable energy has brought into clearer focus the debate on the future of nuclear energy. Application of the risk assessment process to the biological effects of radiation is considered worthwhile so that the nature and order of the hazards entailed can be appreciated in the total context of the problem. The derivation of regulations and the process of cost-risk-benefit analysis are also discussed. In view of the widespread public concern and, on occasion, apprehension about the development of nuclear energy it has been thought useful to tabulate the elements of this concern so as to gain a fuller understanding of the manner in which the public perceives and weighs risks. (author)

  19. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC...

  20. N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, J.T.

    1989-01-01

    An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented

  1. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  2. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  3. Civil migration and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Y.; Brown, S.M.; Olsen, A.R.; Parkhurst, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    To provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and decision making, the Chemical Migration and Risk Assessment (CMRA) Methodology was developed to simulate overland and instream toxic containment migration and fate, and to predict the probability of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic biota. The simulation results indicated that the time between the pesticide application and the subsequent runoff producing event was the most important factor determining the amount of the alachlor. The study also revealed that sediment transport has important effects on contaminant migration when sediment concentrations in receiving streams are high or contaminants are highly susceptible to adsorption by sediment. Although the capabilities of the CMRA methodology were only partially tested in this study, the results demonstrate that methodology can be used as a scientific decision-making tool for toxic chemical regulations, a research tool to evaluate the relative significance of various transport and degradation phenomena, as well as a tool to examine the effectiveness of toxic chemical control practice

  4. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  5. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojo, F J Romero; Roy, R; Kelly, S

    2012-01-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  6. Risk assessment of tailings facility dam failure

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Nikolova, Marija; Mirakovski, Dejan; Stefanova, Violeta

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the consequences of tailings facility dam failure and therefore the needs for its risk assessment. Tailings are fine-grained wastes of the mining industry, output as slurries, due to mixing with water during mineral processing. Tailings dams vary a lot as it is affected by: tailings characteristics and mill output, site characteristics as: topography, hydrology, geology, groundwater, seismicity and available material and disposal methods. The talings which accumulat...

  7. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Kelly, S.

    2013-01-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for th...

  8. Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    alternative root be economically advantageous , an actor’s ability to exploit market forces and create an alternative root would be significantly improved...conduct their operations. Therefore, a loss or disruption to Internet services would not be advantageous for the desired outcomes of these syndicates.26... eCommerce Service loss or disruption [C] Traffic Redirection [C] = Undesired consequence Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

  9. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McVeigh, C.A.

    1996-01-01

    An overview of various aspects of mergers and acquisition transactions in the petroleum industry were presented. Incentives to mergers and acquisitions were reviewed and discussed, among them value opportunity, critical size, incremental tax pools, financial distress, shareholder dissatisfaction, strategic infrastructure position, complementary assets, and undeveloped land inventory. Current trends in mergers and acquisitions were highlighted. An industry checklist for risk assessments discussing financial position, engineering forecasts, and taxation was also included

  10. Remarks on sequential designs in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seidenfeld, T.

    1982-01-01

    The special merits of sequential designs are reviewed in light of particular challenges that attend risk assessment for human population. The kinds of ''statistical inference'' are distinguished and the problem of design which is pursued is the clash between Neyman-Pearson and Bayesian programs of sequential design. The value of sequential designs is discussed and the Neyman-Pearson vs. Bayesian sequential designs are probed in particular. Finally, warnings with sequential designs are considered, especially in relation to utilitarianism

  11. Insights gained through probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hitchler, M.J.; Burns, N.L.; Liparulo, N.J.; Mink, F.J.

    1987-01-01

    The insights gained through a comparison of seven probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) studies (Italian PUN, Sizewell B, Ringhals 2, Millstone 3, Zion 1 and 2, Oconee 3, and Seabrook) included insights regarding the adequacy of the PRA technology utilized in the studies and the potential areas for improvement and insights regarding the adequacy of plant designs and how PRA has been utilized to enhance the design and operation of nuclear power plants

  12. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  13. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  14. Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

  15. Quantum chemistry in environmental pesticide risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaverde, Juan J; López-Goti, Carmen; Alcamí, Manuel; Lamsabhi, Al Mokhtar; Alonso-Prados, José L; Sandín-España, Pilar

    2017-11-01

    The scientific community and regulatory bodies worldwide, currently promote the development of non-experimental tests that produce reliable data for pesticide risk assessment. The use of standard quantum chemistry methods could allow the development of tools to perform a first screening of compounds to be considered for the experimental studies, improving the risk assessment. This fact results in a better distribution of resources and in better planning, allowing a more exhaustive study of the pesticides and their metabolic products. The current paper explores the potential of quantum chemistry in modelling toxicity and environmental behaviour of pesticides and their by-products by using electronic descriptors obtained computationally. Quantum chemistry has potential to estimate the physico-chemical properties of pesticides, including certain chemical reaction mechanisms and their degradation pathways, allowing modelling of the environmental behaviour of both pesticides and their by-products. In this sense, theoretical methods can contribute to performing a more focused risk assessment of pesticides used in the market, and may lead to higher quality and safer agricultural products. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  16. Comparative risk assessment in the energy industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1981-01-01

    This paper covers four approaches to risk assessment in the energy industry. The first is a comparison of the primary fuel cycles - coal and nuclear - standardized to 1 GW(e) power-plant year; this gives the societal risk of the production of a standardized amount of electricity. An example from underground coal mining is given to show how these estimates for the fuel cycles were made. The second approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks for different energy cycles per GWy(e). The third approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks of four different types of photovoltaic cell manufacture; this is an example of an intratechnology comparison. The fourth approach is a risk accounting method of analysis which estimates occupational health impacts for fabrication, construction, operation, and maintenance of energy technologies, and which, through an input-output model of the national economy, includes system-wide impacts as well as direct impacts of building and operating energy facilities

  17. Bioavailability in ecological risk. Assessment for radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnier-Laplace, J.; Gilbin, R.; Della-Vedova, C.; Adam, C.; Simon, O.; Denison, F.; Beaugelin, K.

    2005-01-01

    The guidance for performing Ecological Risk Assessments (ERA) in Europe has been published in 2003 in the EC's Technical Guidance Document. This document constitutes the official reference in which current water quality standards and risk assessment approach for metals/metalloids are still mainly based on total or dissolved concentrations. However, it has been recognized that accurate assessment of the bio-available metal fraction is crucial, even if the way to incorporate bioavailability into these procedures is still under discussion. The speciation of a pollutant in the exposure medium is the first factor that regulates its bioavailability and consequently its bioaccumulation and the induced biological effects. Therefore, within any ecological risk assessment, bioavailability has obvious implications: firstly in exposure analysis which aim is to determine Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC); secondly in effect analysis while deriving the so-called Predicted No-Effect Concentrations (PNEC) as toxicity is often linked to the amount of the contaminant incorporated into the tissues of biota. Similarities between metals/metalloids and radionuclides are limited to the biogeochemical behaviour of the element considered and to the need to use bioavailability models. In addition, for radionuclides, emitted ionising radiations (type and energy) need to be taken into account for both exposure and effect analyses whilst performing dosimetric calculations appropriate to the exposure scenarios. A methodology for properly implementing bioavailability models is explained and illustrated for aqueous U(VI), starting from a comprehensive review of the thermodynamic data relevant to environmentally-realistic physico-chemical conditions. Then, the use of thermodynamic equilibrium modelling as a tool for interpreting the bioavailability of U(VI) is presented. Using a systematic approach, different bioavailability models of increasing complexity were tested to model U bio

  18. A review on pipeline corrosion, in-line inspection (ILI), and corrosion growth rate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanaei, H.R.; Eslami, A.; Egbewande, A.

    2017-01-01

    Pipelines are the very important energy transmission systems. Over time, pipelines can corrode. While corrosion could be detected by in-line inspection (ILI) tools, corrosion growth rate prediction in pipelines is usually done through corrosion rate models. For pipeline integrity management and planning selecting the proper corrosion ILI tool and also corrosion growth rate model is important and can lead to significant savings and safer pipe operation. In this paper common forms of pipeline corrosion, state of the art ILI tools, and also corrosion growth rate models are reviewed. The common forms of pipeline corrosion introduced in this paper are Uniform/General Corrosion, Pitting Corrosion, Cavitation and Erosion Corrosion, Stray Current Corrosion, Micro-Bacterial Influenced Corrosion (MIC). The ILI corrosion detection tools assessed in this study are Magnetic Flux Leakage (MFL), Circumferential MFL, Tri-axial MFL, and Ultrasonic Wall Measurement (UT). The corrosion growth rate models considered in this study are single-value corrosion rate model, linear corrosion growth rate model, non-linear corrosion growth rate model, Monte-Carlo method, Markov model, TD-GEVD, TI-GEVD model, Gamma Process, and BMWD model. Strengths and limitations of ILI detection tools, and also corrosion predictive models with some practical examples are discussed. This paper could be useful for those whom are supporting pipeline integrity management and planning. - Highlights: • Different forms of pipeline corrosion are explained. • Common In-Line Inspection (ILI) tools and corrosion growth rate models are introduced. • Strength and limitations of corrosion growth rate models/ILI tools are discussed. • For pipeline integrity management programs using more than one corrosion growth rate model/ILI tool is suggested.

  19. Assessing Risks of Mine Tailing Dam Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The consequences of tailings dam failures can be catastrophic for communities and ecosystems in the vicinity of the dams. The failure of the Fundão tailings dam at the Samarco mine in 2015 killed 19 people with severe consequences for the environment. The financial and legal consequences of a tailings dam failure can also be significant for the mining companies. For the Fundão tailings dam, the company had to pay 6 billion dollars in fines and twenty-one executives were charged with qualified murder. There are tenths of thousands of active, inactive, and abandoned tailings dams in the world and there is a need to better understand the hazards posed by these structures to downstream populations and ecosystems. A challenge to assess the risks of tailings dams in a large scale is that many of them are not registered in publicly available databases and there is little information about their current physical state. Additionally, hazard classifications of tailings dams - common in many countries- tend to be subjective, include vague parameter definitions, and are not always updated over time. Here we present a simple methodology to assess and rank the exposure to tailings dams using ArcGIS that removes subjective interpretations. The method uses basic information such as current dam height, storage volume, topography, population, land use, and hydrological data. A hazard rating risk was developed to compare the potential extent of the damage across dams. This assessment provides a general overview of what in the vicinity of the tailings dams could be affected in case of a failure and a way to rank tailings dams that is directly linked to the exposure at any given time. One hundred tailings dams in Minas Gerais, Brazil were used for the test case. This ranking approach could inform the risk management strategy of the tailings dams within a company, and when disclosed, it could enable shareholders and the communities to make decisions on the risks they are taking.

  20. Probabilistic models for steel corrosion loss and pitting of marine infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melchers, R.E.; Jeffrey, R.J.

    2008-01-01

    With the increasing emphasis on attempting to retain in service ageing infrastructure models for the description and prediction of corrosion losses and for maximum pit depth are of increasing interest. In most cases assessment and prediction will be done in a probabilistic risk assessment framework and this then requires probabilistic corrosion models. Recently, novel models for corrosion loss and maximum pit depth under marine immersion conditions have been developed. The models show that both corrosion loss and pit depth progress in a non-linear fashion with increased exposure time and do so in a non-monotonic manner as a result of the controlling corrosion process changing from oxidation to being influenced by bacterial action. For engineers the importance of this lies in the fact that conventional 'corrosion rates' have no validity, particularly for the long-term corrosion effects as relevant to deteriorated infrastructure. The models are consistent with corrosion science principles as well as current understanding of the considerable influence of bacterial processes on corrosion loss and pitting. The considerable practical implications of this are described

  1. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  2. Risk evaluation on internal corrosion of a gas pipeline cut section based on metal mechanic tests and physiochemical analysis of the solids deposited in the pipes; Determinacion del riesgo por corrosion interna de un tramo cortado de una linea de transporte de gas natural a partir de ensayos metalmecanicos y del analisis fisicoquimico de los solidos depositados en la tuberia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ditta Sarmiento, Johanna Milena [PETROBRAS International (BRASPETRO) (Colombia). Ingenieria de Corrosion DPSU

    2003-07-01

    After inspecting a one of the most important pipelines in Colombia, using intelligent tool, the pipe sections were selected that presented losses of thickness which probably they would be risking integrity of the same one and after, these sections were cut and replaced. To one of the cut sections a study with the objective was made him establish the present forms of corrosion and to determine the phenomena that influenced the presence of the damages. For this study were moderate thicknesses of the wall of the tube and was determined the criticality comparing it with its nominal thickness, according to Standard ASME B - 31G. Taking advantage of the presence solids in the surface, one became both, physical and chemical analysis, DRX and elementary analysis, with the objective to determine its origin and to correlate it with the types of corrosion that were in the line. The morphology that determined were Microbiological Influenced Corrosion, Erosion - Corrosion, Pitting and CO2 corrosion. Then, from all this information the analysis becomes of risks by internal corrosion in pipeline, the plan of mitigation and the plans of monitoring and inspection of the line to avoid the presence of anyone of these forms of corrosion in the future immediate. (author)

  3. Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grezio, A.; Gasparini, P.; Marzocchi, W.; Patera, A.; Tinti, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

  4. Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei, Fangliang

    2012-05-01

    Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

  5. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  6. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-01-01

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment

  7. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  8. Information Security Risk Assessment in Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayatollahi, Haleh; Shagerdi, Ghazal

    2017-01-01

    To date, many efforts have been made to classify information security threats, especially in the healthcare area. However, there are still many unknown risks which may threat the security of health information and their resources especially in the hospitals. The aim of this study was to assess the risks threatening information security in the hospitals located in one of the northwest cities of Iran. This study was completed in 2014. The participants were information technology managers who worked in the hospitals (n=27). The research instrument was a questionnaire composed of a number of open and closed questions. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed, and the reliability of the closed questions was measured by using the test-retest method (r =0.78). The results showed that among the information security risks, fire found to be a high probability/high impact risk factor. Human and physical/environmental threats were among the low probability risk factors. Regarding the information security safeguards used in the hospitals, the results showed that the use of the technical safeguards was the most frequent one (n =22, 91.7%) compared to the administrative (n =21, 87.5%) and the physical safeguards (n =16, 66.7%). The high probability risk factors require quick corrective actions to be taken. Therefore, the underlying causes of such threats should be identified and controlled before experiencing adverse effects. It is also important to note that information security in health care systems needs to be considered at a macro level with respect to the national interests and policies.

  9. The importance of radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1979-01-01

    In its Publication 26, ICRP recommends a system of radiation dose limitation that is designed to ensure adequate protection from the harmful effects of radiation in conditions both of occupational and of environmental exposure. Clearly, however, no such system can be recommended or accepted as sufficiently safe unless the risks of the resultant exposures have been quantitatively assessed. Publication 26 reflects the increasing quantitative information that is now available on (a) carcinogenic risks of radiation in man, both from exposure of the whole body and from that of individual organs, at moderate exposures; (b) theoretical bases for inference of risk, from moderate to lower exposures; (c) genetic risks in the mouse, and inferences from such risks to those in man; (d) the dose equivalent levels at which certain non-stochastic effects may be induced. Despite a number of uncertainties, substantially improved estimates can therefore be made of the levels of safety that are likely to be achieved by observing the Commission's recommended dose limits, and the associated system of limitation of exposures to levels as low as reasonably achievable below these limits. Both for occupational exposure and for the exposure of the members of the public, these estimates are expressed in Publication 26 in terms of the risk of inducing fatal malignancies or serious hereditary ill health. These frequencies are compared with those of occupational fatalities in other industries or with accidental fatalities amongst the general public. The comparison between harm from radiation and from other agents in different industries is extended in ICRP-27 (on ''Problems Involved in Developing an Index of Harm'') in a review of the time lost through occupational diseases and non-fatal accidents, as well as from fatal diseases and accidents, so that the levels of safety achievable by the Commission's recommendations can be reviewed in the general perspective of occupational safety. (author)

  10. Ergonomic risk assessment by REBA method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hassanzadeh

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Awkward posture has been recognized as one of the important risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD. The current study aimed at determining ergonomic risk level, WMSDs ratio and exploring working postures contribution to WMSD. During the study, working postures were phased and then they were scored using the REBAtool from observing the work.   Methods   To perform the study, workers of a home appliances manufacturing factory were  assessed. In order to collecting required data, each part of the body was scored and work frequency,  load/force, coupling were considered to achieve a REBA score. Nordic Questionnaire was used  to determining WMSD ratio and its relationship whit REBA score. 231 working phases were  assessed and 13761 questions using Nordic Questionnaire were answered. Percentage of the workers in press, spot welding, grinding, cutting, assembling, and painting was 15.8, 21.6, 25.9, 34.5, 89.9%, respectively. Workers were 18-54 years old and their work recording average was 52  month.   Results   REBAscore was 4-13 in under study tasks. REBA score = 9 had the most frequency  (20% and REBA score =13 had the least frequency (1.4%. Risk level in press, cutting, and  painting was high (25.5, 100, 68.2% cases. This shows that cutting has the highest risk level. On the other hand 38.5% of the workers in past 12 month had problem in different parts of their body. Totally 11.7% of the workers had problem in neck, 19.4$ in leg, 10.7% in foot, 82.5% in lower back,  87.6% in upper back and 7.8% in shoulders.10.7% of the workers had previous illness that 8.7%  of them were non occupational and 1.9% were caused their previous jobs. The REBAscore mean  and ergonomic risk level is not equal in tasks (p-value0. Action level was necessary  soon in others.   Conclusion   Risk level should be reduced specially in cutting. The heavy workload and  working height poor design, awkward

  11. Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Babu Pazhayattil

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.

  12. Use of quantitative uncertainty analysis for human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, F.L.W.; Gordon, J.W.; Kelly, M.

    1994-01-01

    Current human health risk assessment method for environmental risks typically use point estimates of risk accompanied by qualitative discussions of uncertainty. Alternatively, Monte Carlo simulations may be used with distributions for input parameters to estimate the resulting risk distribution and descriptive risk percentiles. These two techniques are applied for the ingestion of 1,1=dichloroethene in ground water. The results indicate that Monte Carlo simulations provide significantly more information for risk assessment and risk management than do point estimates

  13. Corrosion Monitors for Embedded Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, Alex L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pfeifer, Kent B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Casias, Adrian L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Howell, Stephen W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Missert, Nancy A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    We have developed and characterized novel in-situ corrosion sensors to monitor and quantify the corrosive potential and history of localized environments. Embedded corrosion sensors can provide information to aid health assessments of internal electrical components including connectors, microelectronics, wires, and other susceptible parts. When combined with other data (e.g. temperature and humidity), theory, and computational simulation, the reliability of monitored systems can be predicted with higher fidelity.

  14. Risk assessment and radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, J.J.

    1979-01-01

    Problems of radioactive waste management, both real and apparent, have provided a serious constraint in the development of nuclear power. Several studies have been conducted in an attempt to evaluate the actual (quantifiable) risks of radioactive waste management and place them in a reasonable perspective. These studies are reviewed and discussed. Generally, the studies indicate the risks to be of a level of seriousness which might normally be considered acceptable in current society. However, it is apparent that this acceptability has not been attained and public apprehension prevails. To understand the reasons for this apprehension requires an assessment of those factors of ''perceived'' risks which play a major role in determining public attitudes toward radioactive waste management programs and nuclear power, in general. Such factors might include the spector of legacies of harm to future generations, genetic effects, nuclear garbage dumps, proliferation of plutonium inventories, nuclear terrorism, etc. A major problem in development of acceptable waste management policies and programs requires not only the recognition of the importance of perceived risk factors but development of a methodology for their incorporation in planning and conduct of such activities. Some approaches to the development of this methodology are discussed

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment in the CPI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guymer, P.; Kaiser, G.D.; Mc Kelvey, T.C.; Hannaman, G.W.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a method of quantifying the frequency of occurrence and magnitude of the consequences of accidents in systems that contain hazardous materials such as toxic, flammable or explosive chemicals. The frequency and magnitude of the consequences are the basic elements in the definition of risk, often simply expressed as the product of frequency and magnitude, summed over all accident sequences. PRA is a mature technique that has been used to estimate risk for a number of industrial facilities: for example, the Canvey Island Petrochemical complex; the Port of Rotterdam; the Reactor Safety Study, the first study to put the risks associated with nuclear power into perspective; and the transportation of chlorine. PRA has been developed to a greater level of sophistication in the nuclear industry than in the chemical industry. In the nuclear area, its usefulness has been demonstrated by increased plant safety, engineering insights, and cost-saving recommendations. Data and methods have been developed to increase the level of realism of the treatment of operator actions in PRA studies. It can be stated generally that the same methods can be applied with equal success in the chemical industry. However, there are pitfalls into which the unwary nuclear-oriented PRA analyst may stumble if he does not bear in mind that there are significant differences between nuclear plants and chemical plants

  16. Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toyofuku, Hajime . E-mail toyofuku@nihs.go.jp

    2006-01-01

    For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world

  17. Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.

    1989-11-01

    A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

  18. Genetic cancer risk assessment in practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruber, S.

    2004-01-01

    The advent of genetic testing has made a dramatic impact on the management of individuals with inherited susceptibility to cancer and their relatives. Genetic counsel ing, with or without testing, is warranted when clues to familial cancer are recognized. Today, genetic testing for classic cancer genetic syndromes is now the standard of care, and has been complemented by genetic testing for other situations commonly encountered in clinical practice. Genetic testing for colorectal cancer, breast cancer, kidney cancer, thyroid cancer, melanoma, and pancreatic cancer raise important issues about the parameters for testing. Genetic cancer risk assessment can lead to measurable reductions in morbidity and mortality through strategies that rely on surveillance, chemo prevention, and risk-reducing surgery

  19. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

  20. [Assessment of biological corrosion of ferroconcrete of ground-based industrial structures].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozhanskaia, A M; Piliashenko-Novokhatnyĭ, A I; Purish, L M; Durcheva, V N; Kozlova, I A

    2001-01-01

    One of the objects of a nuclear plant built in 1983 and put in 15-years long dead storage with the purpose to estimate the degree of contamination by rust-hazardous microorganisms of ferroconcrete structures and to predict their biocorrosion state after putting in operation was a subject of microbiological investigation. The everywhere distribution of sulphur cycle bacteria (thionic and sulphate-reducing bacteria) on the surface and in the bulk of concrete structures, their confineness to corrosion products of concrete and bars of the investigated building have been shown. It has been demonstrated that sulphate-reducing bacteria were the most distributed group in all the sampling points. An indirect estimation of participation degree of the microbial communities in the processes of ferroconcrete biological damages has been carried out as based on the accumulation intensity of aggressive gaseous metabolites--carbon dioxide and hydrogen. Probability of deterioration of biocorrosion situation under the full-scale operation of the object has been substantiated.