WorldWideScience

Sample records for cooling model predictions

  1. Prediction models and control algorithms for predictive applications of setback temperature in cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Jin Woo; Yoon, Younju; Jeon, Young-Hoon; Kim, Sooyoung

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Initial ANN model was developed for predicting the time to the setback temperature. • Initial model was optimized for producing accurate output. • Optimized model proved its prediction accuracy. • ANN-based algorithms were developed and tested their performance. • ANN-based algorithms presented superior thermal comfort or energy efficiency. - Abstract: In this study, a temperature control algorithm was developed to apply a setback temperature predictively for the cooling system of a residential building during occupied periods by residents. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to determine the required time for increasing the current indoor temperature to the setback temperature. This study involved three phases: development of the initial ANN-based prediction model, optimization and testing of the initial model, and development and testing of three control algorithms. The development and performance testing of the model and algorithm were conducted using TRNSYS and MATLAB. Through the development and optimization process, the final ANN model employed indoor temperature and the temperature difference between the current and target setback temperature as two input neurons. The optimal number of hidden layers, number of neurons, learning rate, and moment were determined to be 4, 9, 0.6, and 0.9, respectively. The tangent–sigmoid and pure-linear transfer function was used in the hidden and output neurons, respectively. The ANN model used 100 training data sets with sliding-window method for data management. Levenberg-Marquart training method was employed for model training. The optimized model had a prediction accuracy of 0.9097 root mean square errors when compared with the simulated results. Employing the ANN model, ANN-based algorithms maintained indoor temperatures better within target ranges. Compared to the conventional algorithm, the ANN-based algorithms reduced the duration of time, in which the indoor temperature

  2. Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogen species in chlorinated saline cooling waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lietzke, M.H.; Haag, W.R.

    1979-01-01

    A kinetic model for predicting the composition of chlorinated water discharged from power plants using fresh water for cooling was previously reported. The model has now been extended to be applicable to power plants located on estuaries or on the seacoast where saline water is used for cooling purposes. When chloride is added to seawater to prevent biofouling in cooling systems, bromine is liberated. Since this reaction proceeds at a finite rate there is a competition between the bromine (i.e., hypobromous acid) and the added chlorine (i.e., hypochlorous acid) for halogenation of any amine species present in the water. Hence not only chloramines but also bromamines and bromochloramines will be formed, with the relative concentrations a function of the pH, temperature, and salinity of the water. The kinetic model takes into account the chemical reactions leading to the formation and disappearance of the more important halamines and hypohalous acids likely to be encountered in chlorinated saline water

  3. Kinetic model for predicting the composition of chlorinated water discharged from power plant cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lietzke, M.H.

    1977-01-01

    The results of applying a kinetic model to the chlorination data supplied by Commonwealth Edison on the once-through cooling system at the Quad Cities Nuclear Station provide a validation of the model. The two examples given demonstrate that the model may be applied to either once-through cooling systems or to cooling systems involving cooling towers

  4. Experimental evaluation of models for predicting Cherenkov light intensities from short-cooled nuclear fuel assemblies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branger, E.; Grape, S.; Jansson, P.; Jacobsson Svärd, S.

    2018-02-01

    The Digital Cherenkov Viewing Device (DCVD) is a tool used by nuclear safeguards inspectors to verify irradiated nuclear fuel assemblies in wet storage based on the recording of Cherenkov light produced by the assemblies. One type of verification involves comparing the measured light intensity from an assembly with a predicted intensity, based on assembly declarations. Crucial for such analyses is the performance of the prediction model used, and recently new modelling methods have been introduced to allow for enhanced prediction capabilities by taking the irradiation history into account, and by including the cross-talk radiation from neighbouring assemblies in the predictions. In this work, the performance of three models for Cherenkov-light intensity prediction is evaluated by applying them to a set of short-cooled PWR 17x17 assemblies for which experimental DCVD measurements and operator-declared irradiation data was available; (1) a two-parameter model, based on total burnup and cooling time, previously used by the safeguards inspectors, (2) a newly introduced gamma-spectrum-based model, which incorporates cycle-wise burnup histories, and (3) the latter gamma-spectrum-based model with the addition to account for contributions from neighbouring assemblies. The results show that the two gamma-spectrum-based models provide significantly higher precision for the measured inventory compared to the two-parameter model, lowering the standard deviation between relative measured and predicted intensities from 15.2 % to 8.1 % respectively 7.8 %. The results show some systematic differences between assemblies of different designs (produced by different manufacturers) in spite of their similar PWR 17x17 geometries, and possible ways are discussed to address such differences, which may allow for even higher prediction capabilities. Still, it is concluded that the gamma-spectrum-based models enable confident verification of the fuel assembly inventory at the currently used

  5. Computer aided simulation for developing a simple model to predict cooling of packaged foods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Martin Gram; Feyissa, Aberham Hailu; Adler-Nissen, Jens

    A new equation to predict equilibrium temperatures for cooling operations of packaged foods has been deducted from the traditional 1st order solution to Fourier’s heat transfer equations. The equation is analytical in form and only requires measurable parameters, in form of area vs. volume ratio (A...

  6. Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogens species in chlorinated saline cooling waters. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haag, W.R.; Lietzke, M.H.

    1981-08-01

    A kinetic model has been developed for describing the speciation of chlorine-produced oxidants in seawater as a function of time. The model is applicable under a broad variety of conditions, including all pH range, salinities, temperatures, ammonia concentrations, organic amine concentrations, and chlorine doses likely to be encountered during power plant cooling water chlorination. However, the effects of sunlight are not considered. The model can also be applied to freshwater and recirculating water systems with cooling towers. The results of the model agree with expectation, however, complete verification is not feasible at the present because analytical methods for some of the predicted species are lacking.

  7. Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogens species in chlorinated saline cooling waters. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haag, W.R.; Lietzke, M.H.

    1981-08-01

    A kinetic model has been developed for describing the speciation of chlorine-produced oxidants in seawater as a function of time. The model is applicable under a broad variety of conditions, including all pH range, salinities, temperatures, ammonia concentrations, organic amine concentrations, and chlorine doses likely to be encountered during power plant cooling water chlorination. However, the effects of sunlight are not considered. The model can also be applied to freshwater and recirculating water systems with cooling towers. The results of the model agree with expectation, however, complete verification is not feasible at the present because analytical methods for some of the predicted species are lacking

  8. Non-linear Model Predictive Control for cooling strings of superconducting magnets using superfluid helium

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(SzGeCERN)673023; Blanco Viñuela, Enrique

    In each of eight arcs of the 27 km circumference Large Hadron Collider (LHC), 2.5 km long strings of super-conducting magnets are cooled with superfluid Helium II at 1.9 K. The temperature stabilisation is a challenging control problem due to complex non-linear dynamics of the magnets temperature and presence of multiple operational constraints. Strong nonlinearities and variable dead-times of the dynamics originate at strongly heat-flux dependent effective heat conductivity of superfluid that varies three orders of magnitude over the range of possible operational conditions. In order to improve the temperature stabilisation, a proof of concept on-line economic output-feedback Non-linear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) is presented in this thesis. The controller is based on a novel complex first-principles distributed parameters numerical model of the temperature dynamics over a 214 m long sub-sector of the LHC that is characterized by very low computational cost of simulation needed in real-time optimizat...

  9. Prediction Performance of an Artificial Neural Network Model for the Amount of Cooling Energy Consumption in Hotel Rooms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Woo Moon

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to develop an artificial neural network (ANN-based prediction model that can calculate the amount of cooling energy during the setback period of accommodation buildings. By comparing the amount of energy needed for diverse setback temperatures, the most energy-efficient optimal setback temperature could be found and applied in the thermal control logic. Three major processes that used the numerical simulation method were conducted for the development and optimization of an ANN model and for the testing of its prediction performance, respectively. First, the structure and learning method of the initial ANN model was determined to predict the amount of cooling energy consumption during the setback period. Then, the initial structure and learning methods of the ANN model were optimized using parametrical analysis to compare its prediction accuracy levels. Finally, the performance tests of the optimized model proved its prediction accuracy with the lower coefficient of variation of the root mean square errors (CVRMSEs of the simulated results and the predicted results under generally accepted levels. In conclusion, the proposed ANN model proved its potential to be applied to the thermal control logic for setting up the most energy-efficient setback temperature.

  10. Effect of Over-Tree Evaporative Cooling in Orchards on Microclimate and Accuracy of Insect Model Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Ute; Jones, Vincent P

    2015-12-01

    Orchard design and management practices can alter microclimate and, thus, potentially affect insect development. If sufficiently large, these deviations in microclimate can compromise the accuracy of phenology model predictions used in integrated pest management (IPM) programs. Sunburn causes considerable damage in the Pacific Northwest, United States, apple-producing region. Common prevention strategies include the use of fruit surface protectants, evaporative cooling (EC), or both. This study focused on the effect of EC on ambient temperatures and model predictions for four insects (codling moth, Cydia pomonella L.; Lacanobia fruitworm, Lacanobia subjuncta Grote and Robinson; oblique-banded leafroller, Choristoneura rosaceana Harris; and Pandemis leafroller, Pandemis pyrusana Kearfott). Over-tree EC was applied in July and August when daily maximum temperatures were predicted to be ≥30°C between 1200-1700 hours (15/15 min on/off interval) in 2011 and between 1200-1800 hours (15/10 min on/off interval, or continuous on) in 2012. Control plots were sprayed once with kaolin clay in early July. During interval and continuous cooling, over-tree cooling reduced average afternoon temperatures compared with the kaolin treatment by 2.1-3.2°C. Compared with kaolin-treated controls, codling moth and Lacanobia fruitworm egg hatch in EC plots was predicted to occur up to 2 d and 1 d late, respectively. The presence of fourth-instar oblique-banded leafroller and Pandemis leafroller was predicted to occur up to 2 d and 1 d earlier in EC plots, respectively. These differences in model predictions were negligible, suggesting that no adjustments in pest management timing are needed when using EC in high-density apple orchards. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. A predictive model to evaluate the impact of the cooling profile on growth of psychrotrophic bacteria in raw milk from conventional and robotic milking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansson, Anders

    2017-08-01

    This Research Communication explores the usefulness of predictive modelling to explain bacterial behaviour during cooling. A simple dynamic lag phase model was developed and validated. The model takes into account the effect of the cooling profile on the lag phase and growth in bulk tank milk. The time before the start of cooling was the most critical and should not exceed 1 h. The cooling rate between 30 and approximately 10 °C was the second most critical period. Cooling from 30 to 10 °C within 2 h ensured minimal growth of psychrotrophic bacteria in the milk. The cooling rate between 10 and 4 °C (the slowest phase of cooling) was of surprisingly little importance. Given a normal cooling profile to 10 °C, several hours of prolonged cooling time made practically no difference in psychrotrophic counts. This behaviour can be explained by the time/temperature dependence of the work needed by the bacteria to complete the lag phase at low temperature. For milk quality advisors, it is important to know that slow cooling below 10 °C does not result in high total counts of bacteria. In practice, slow cooling is occasionally found at farms with robotic milking. However, when comparing psychrotrophic growth in bulk milk tanks designed for robotic milking or conventional milking, the model predicted less growth for robotic milking for identical cooling profiles. It is proposed that due to the different rates of milk entering the tank, fewer bacteria will exit the lag phase during robotic milking and they will be more diluted than in conventional milking systems. At present, there is no international standard that specifies the cooling profile in robotic systems. The information on the insignificant effect of the cooling rate below 10 °C may be useful in the development of a standard.

  12. Evaluating the performance of a new model for predicting the growth of Clostridium perfringens in cooked, uncured meat and poultry products under isothermal, heating, and dynamically cooling conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clostridium perfringens Type A is a significant public health threat and may germinate, outgrow, and multiply during cooling of cooked meats. This study evaluates a new C. perfringens growth model in IPMP Dynamic Prediction using the same criteria and cooling data in Mohr and others (2015), but inc...

  13. Evaluating the Performance of a New Model for Predicting the Growth of Clostridium perfringens in Cooked, Uncured Meat and Poultry Products under Isothermal, Heating, and Dynamically Cooling Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lihan

    2016-07-01

    Clostridium perfringens type A is a significant public health threat and its spores may germinate, outgrow, and multiply during cooling of cooked meats. This study applies a new C. perfringens growth model in the USDA Integrated Pathogen Modeling Program-Dynamic Prediction (IPMP Dynamic Prediction) Dynamic Prediction to predict the growth from spores of C. perfringens in cooked uncured meat and poultry products using isothermal, dynamic heating, and cooling data reported in the literature. The residual errors of predictions (observation-prediction) are analyzed, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) calculated. For isothermal and heating profiles, each data point in growth curves is compared. The mean residual errors (MRE) of predictions range from -0.40 to 0.02 Log colony forming units (CFU)/g, with a RMSE of approximately 0.6 Log CFU/g. For cooling, the end point predictions are conservative in nature, with an MRE of -1.16 Log CFU/g for single-rate cooling and -0.66 Log CFU/g for dual-rate cooling. The RMSE is between 0.6 and 0.7 Log CFU/g. Compared with other models reported in the literature, this model makes more accurate and fail-safe predictions. For cooling, the percentage for accurate and fail-safe predictions is between 97.6% and 100%. Under criterion 1, the percentage of accurate predictions is 47.5% for single-rate cooling and 66.7% for dual-rate cooling, while the fail-dangerous predictions are between 0% and 2.4%. This study demonstrates that IPMP Dynamic Prediction can be used by food processors and regulatory agencies as a tool to predict the growth of C. perfringens in uncured cooked meats and evaluate the safety of cooked or heat-treated uncured meat and poultry products exposed to cooling deviations or to develop customized cooling schedules. This study also demonstrates the need for more accurate data collection during cooling. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  14. Predictions for heat transfer characteristics in a natural draft reactor cooling system using a second moment closure turbulence model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimura, M.; Maekawa, I.

    2004-01-01

    A numerical study is performed on the natural draft reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). In the cooling system, buoyancy driven heated upward flow could be in the mixed convection regime that is accompanied by heat transfer impairment. Also, the heating wall condition is asymmetric with regard to the channel cross section. These flow regime and thermal boundary conditions may invalidate the use of design correlation. To precisely simulate the flow and thermal fields within the RCCS, the second moment closure turbulence model is applied. Two types of the RCCS channel geometry are selected to make a comparison: an annular duct with fins on the outer surface of the inner circular wall, and a multi-rectangular duct. The prediction shows that the local heat transfer coefficient on the RCCS with finned annular duct is less than 1/6 of that estimated with Dittus-Boelter correlation. Much portion of the natural draft airflow does not contribute cooling at all because mainstream escapes from the narrow gaps between the fins. This result and thus the finned annulus design are unacceptable from the viewpoint for structural integrity of the RCCS wall boundary. The performance of the multi-rectangular duct design is acceptable that the RCCS maximum temperature is less than 400 degree centigrade even when the flow rate is halved from the designed condition. (author)

  15. Computational fluid dynamics model for predicting flow of viscous fluids in a large fermentor with hydrofoil flow impellers and internal cooling coils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly; Humphrey

    1998-03-01

    Considerable debate has occurred over the use of hydrofoil impellers in large-scale fermentors to improve mixing and mass transfer in highly viscous non-Newtonian systems. Using a computational fluid dynamics software package (Fluent, version 4.30) extensive calculations were performed to study the effect of impeller speed (70-130 rpm), broth rheology (value of power law flow behavior index from 0.2 to 0.6), and distance between the cooling coil bank and the fermentor wall (6-18 in.) on flow near the perimeter of a large (75-m3) fermentor equipped with A315 impellers. A quadratic model utilizing the data was developed in an attempt to correlate the effect of A315 impeller speed, power law flow behavior index, and distance between the cooling coil bank and the fermentor wall on the average axial velocity in the coil bank-wall region. The results suggest that there is a potential for slow or stagnant flow in the coil bank-wall region which could result in poor oxygen and heat transfer for highly viscous fermentations. The results also indicate that there is the potential for slow or stagnant flow in the region between the top impeller and the gas headspace when flow through the coil bank-wall region is slow. Finally, a simple guideline was developed to allow fermentor design engineers to predict the degree of flow behind a bank of helical cooling coils in a large fermentor with hydrofoil flow impellers.

  16. Hazards associated with Clostridium perfringens in particular reference to predictive models applicable to cooling of cooked meat and poultry products

    Science.gov (United States)

    The incidence of C. perfringens food-poisoning is quite common and costly. Although somewhat fastidious in growth characteristics using synthetic laboratory media, the microorganism is very prolific when found in food products. Inadequate cooling of foods in retail food operations is a major safety ...

  17. A new gas cooling model for semi-analytic galaxy formation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Jun; Lacey, Cedric G.; Frenk, Carlos S.

    2018-03-01

    Semi-analytic galaxy formation models are widely used to gain insight into the astrophysics of galaxy formation and in model testing, parameter space searching and mock catalogue building. In this work, we present a new model for gas cooling in haloes in semi-analytic models, which improves over previous cooling models in several ways. Our new treatment explicitly includes the evolution of the density profile of the hot gas driven by the growth of the dark matter halo and by the dynamical adjustment of the gaseous corona as gas cools down. The effect of the past cooling history on the current mass cooling rate is calculated more accurately, by doing an integral over the past history. The evolution of the hot gas angular momentum profile is explicitly followed, leading to a self-consistent and more detailed calculation of the angular momentum of the cooled down gas. This model predicts higher cooled down masses than the cooling models previously used in GALFORM, closer to the predictions of the cooling models in L-GALAXIES and MORGANA, even though those models are formulated differently. It also predicts cooled down angular momenta that are higher than in previous GALFORM cooling models, but generally lower than the predictions of L-GALAXIES and MORGANA. When used in a full galaxy formation model, this cooling model improves the predictions for early-type galaxy sizes in GALFORM.

  18. Crack-Depth Prediction in Steel Based on Cooling Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rodríguez-Martín

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available One criterion for the evaluation of surface cracks in steel welds is to analyze the depth of the crack, because it is an effective indicator of its potential risk. This paper proposes a new methodology to obtain an accurate crack-depth prediction model based on the combination of infrared thermography and the 3D reconstruction procedure. In order to do this, a study of the cooling rate of the steel is implemented through active infrared thermography, allowing the study of the differential thermal behavior of the steel in the fissured zone with respect to the nonfissured zone. These cooling rate data are correlated with the real geometry of the crack, which is obtained with the 3D reconstruction of the welds through a macrophotogrammetric procedure. In this way, it is possible to analyze the correlation between cooling rate and depth through the different zones of the crack. The results of the study allow the establishment of an accurate predictive depth model which enables the study of the depth of the crack using only the cooling rate data. In this way, the remote measure of the depth of the surface steel crack based on thermography is possible.

  19. Advanced wet--dry cooling tower concept performance prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snyder, T.; Bentley, J.; Giebler, M.; Glicksman, L.R.; Rohsenow, W.M.

    1977-01-01

    The purpose of this year's work has been to test and analyze the new dry cooling tower surface previously developed. The model heat transfer test apparatus built last year has been instrumented for temperature, humidity and flow measurement and performance has been measured under a variety of operating conditions. Tower Tests showed approximately 40 to 50% of the total energy transfer as taking place due to evaporation. This can be compared to approximately 80 to 85% for a conventional wet cooling tower. Comparison of the model tower test results with those of a computer simulation has demonstrated the validity of that simulation and its use as a design tool. Computer predictions have been made for a full-size tower system operating at several locations. Experience with this counterflow model tower has suggested that several design problems may be avoided by blowing the cooling air horizontally through the packing section. This crossflow concept was built from the previous counterflow apparatus and included the design and fabrication of new packing plates. Instrumentation and testing of the counterflow model produced data with an average experimental error of 10%. These results were compared to the predictions of a computer model written for the crossflow configuration. In 14 test runs the predicted total heat transfer differed from the measured total heat transfer by no more than 8% with most runs coming well within 5%. With the computer analogy's validity established, it may now be used to help predict the performance of fullscale wet-dry towers.

  20. A model predictive framework of Ground Source Heat Pump coupled with Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage System in heating and cooling equipment of a building

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rostampour Samarin, V.; Bloemendal, J.M.; Keviczky, T.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a complete model of a building heating and cooling equipment and a ground source heat pump (GSHP) coupled with an aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) system. This model contains detailed
    mathematical representations of building thermal dynamics, ATES system dynamics, heat

  1. Modeling of Direct Contact Wet Cooling Tower in ETRR-2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Khatib, H.H.; Ismail, A.L.; ElRefaie, M.E.

    2008-01-01

    The Egyptian Testing and Research Reactor no.2 (ETRR-2) was commissioned at 1997 with maximum power 22 MW for research purposes; an induced draft wet cooling tower (counter flow type) was putted in operation in 2003 instead of the first one. Investigations are achieved to evaluate cooling tower performance to guarantee that the cooling tower capable to dissipate heat generated in reactor core. Merkel and Poppe analysis was applied to simulate this cooling tower packing. Merkel analysis was applied to predict water outlet temperature from cooling tower and also to show the effect of ambient conditions on this temperature. Poppe analysis was applied to predict Merkel number which evaluate cooling tower. The Runge-Kutta numerical method was applied to solve the differential equations in this model and an engineering equation solver (EES) is the language used to model the cooling tower. This research illustrates that the cooling tower achieves good performance in various sever ambient condition at maximum operating condition of reactor power. The results show that at severe summer condition of wet bulb temperature equals 24 degree c and tower inlet temperature equals 37 degree c, the outlet water temperature equals 30.4 degree c from cooling tower, while the Merkel number is be found 1.253

  2. Equilibrium Models of Galaxy Clusters with Cooling, Heating, and Conduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brüggen, M.

    2003-08-01

    It is generally argued that most clusters of galaxies host cooling flows in which radiative cooling in the center causes a slow inflow. However, recent observations by Chandra and XMM conflict with the predicted cooling flow rates. Among other mechanisms, heating by a central active galactic nucleus and thermal conduction have been invoked in order to account for the small mass deposition rates. Here we present a family of hydrostatic models for the intracluster medium where radiative losses are exactly balanced by thermal conduction and heating by a central source. We describe the features of this simple model and fit its parameters to the density and temperature profiles of Hydra A.

  3. Using ANNs to predict cooling requirements for residential buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karatasou, S.; Santamouris, M.; Geros, V. [University of Athens (Greece). Physics Dept.

    2004-07-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been used for the prediction of cooling loads of residential buildings in Athens, Greece. The investigation was performed for the summer period, where for Southern European countries, short time cooling load forecasting in residential buildings with lead times from 1 hour to 7 days can play a key role in the economic and energy efficient operation of cooling appliances. The objective of this work is to produce a simulation algorithm, using ANNs, capable to forecast the following 24-hour cooling load profiles. Reliable cooling consumption measurements are required but are not usually available for residential buildings. State-ofthe- art building simulation software, TRNSYS, was used to calculate energy demand for cooling for five selected apartments in Athens, Greece, using detailed building data (geometry, wall construction, occupancy etc) and Athens climate conditions. These data are used to train artificial neural networks in order to generate the relationship between selected inputs and the desired output, the next day building energy consumption for cooling. A multiplayer perceptron architecture using the standard back-propagation learning algorithm has been applied yielded to satisfactory results and the conclusion that when ANNs are trained on reliable data they can simulate the behavior of the building, thus they can be effectively used to predict future performance. (orig.)

  4. A study of the importance of occupancy to building cooling load in prediction by intelligent approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwok, Simon S.K.; Lee, Eric W.M.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → The building occupancy affecting the cooling load prediction is studied. → PENN model is adopted in this study for predicting the building cooling load. → Statistical approach is adopted to result a less prejudice prediction performance. → Results show that occupancy data can significantly improve the prediction. -- Abstract: Building cooling load prediction is one of the key factors in the success of energy-saving measures. Many computational models available in the industry today have been developed from either forward or inverse modeling approaches. However, most of these models require extensive computer resources and involve lengthy computation. This paper discusses the use of data-driven intelligent approaches, a probabilistic entropy-based neural (PENN) model to predict the cooling load of a building. Although it is common knowledge that the presence and activity of building occupants have a significant impact on the required cooling load of buildings, practices currently adopted in modeling the presence and activity of people in buildings do not reflect the complexity of the impact occupants have on building cooling load. In contrast to previous artificial neural network (ANN) models, most of which employ a fixed schedule or historic load data to represent building occupancy in simulating building cooling load, this paper introduces two input parameters, dynamic occupancy area and rate and uses it to mimic building cooling load. The training samples used include weather data obtained from the Hong Kong Observatory and building-related data acquired from an existing grade A mega office buildings in Hong Kong with tenants including many multi-national financial companies that require 24-h air conditioning seven days a week. The dynamic changes that occur in the occupancy of these buildings therefore make it very difficult to forecast building cooling load by means of a fixed time schedule. The performance of simulation results

  5. Methodology for predicting cooling water effects on fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cakiroglu, C.; Yurteri, C.

    1998-01-01

    The mathematical model presented here predicts the long-term effects of once-through cooling water systems on local fish populations. The fish life cycle model simulates different life stages of fish by using appropriate expressions representing growth and mortality rates. The heart of the developed modeling approach is the prediction of plant-caused reduction in total fish population by estimating recruitment to adult population with and without entrainment of ichthyoplankton and impingement of small fish. The model was applied to a local fish species, gilthead (Aparus aurata), for the case of a proposed power plant in the Aegean region of Turkey. The simulations indicate that entrainment and impingement may lead to a population reduction of about 2% to 8% in the long run. In many cases, an impact of this size can be considered rather unimportant. In the case of sensitive and ecologically values species facing extinction, however, necessary precautions should be taken to minimize or totally avoid such an impact

  6. Batch-to-batch model improvement for cooling crystallization

    OpenAIRE

    Forgione , Marco; Birpoutsoukis , Georgios; Bombois , Xavier; Mesbah , Ali; Daudey , Peter; Van Den Hof , Paul

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Two batch-to-batch model update strategies for model-based control of batch cooling crystallization are presented. In Iterative Learning Control, a nominal process model is adjusted by a non-parametric, additive correction term which depends on the difference between the measured output and the model prediction in the previous batch. In Iterative Identification Control, the uncertain model parameters are iteratively estimated using the measured batch data. Due to the d...

  7. Prediction of local effects of proposed cooling ponds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hicks, B.B.

    1978-01-01

    A Fog Excess Water (FEW) Index has been shown to provide a good measure of the likelihood for steam fog to occur at specific cooling pond installations. The FEW Index is derived from the assumption that the surface boundary layer over a cooling pond will be strongly convective, and that highly efficient vertical transport mechanisms will result in a thorough mixing of air saturated at surface temperature with ambient air aloft. Available data support this assumption. An extension of this approach can be used to derive a simple indicator for use in predicting the formation of rime ice in the immediate downwind environs of a cooling pond. In this case, it is supposed that rime ice will be deposited whenever steam fog and sub-freezing surface temperatures are predicted. This provides a convenient method for interpreting pre-existing meteorological information in order to assess possible icing effects while in the early design stages of the planning process. However, it remains necessary to derive accurate predictions of the cooling pond water surface temperature. Once a suitable and proven procedure for this purpose has been demonstrated, it is then a simple matter to employ the FEW Index in evaluations of the relative merits of alternative cooling pond designs, with the purpose of minimizing overall environmental impact

  8. Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, Nandini; Cane, Mark A.; Seager, Richard; Lee, Dong Eun

    2017-10-01

    The Tropical Pacific Ocean displays persistently cool sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that last several years to a decade, with either no El Niño events or a few weak El Niño events. These cause large-scale droughts in the extratropics, including major North American droughts such as the 1930s Dust Bowl, and also modulate the global mean surface temperature. Here we show that two models with different levels of complexity—the Zebiak-Cane intermediate model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 2.1—are able to produce such periods in a realistic manner. We then test the predictability of these periods in the Zebiak-Cane model using an ensemble of experiments with perturbed initial states. Our results show that in most cases the cool mean state is predictable. We then apply this method to make retrospective forecasts of shifts in the decadal mean state and to forecast the mean state of the Tropical Pacific Ocean for the upcoming decade. Our results suggest that the Pacific will undergo a shift to a warmer mean state after the 2015-2016 El Niño. This could imply the cessation of the drier than normal conditions that have generally afflicted southwest North America since the 1997-1998 El Niño, as well as the twenty-first-century pause in global warming. Implications for our understanding of the origins of such persistent cool states and the possibility of improving predictions of large-scale droughts are discussed.

  9. Thermal Predictions of the Cooling of Waste Glass Canisters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donna Post Guillen

    2014-11-01

    Radioactive liquid waste from five decades of weapons production is slated for vitrification at the Hanford site. The waste will be mixed with glass forming additives and heated to a high temperature, then poured into canisters within a pour cave where the glass will cool and solidify into a stable waste form for disposal. Computer simulations were performed to predict the heat rejected from the canisters and the temperatures within the glass during cooling. Four different waste glass compositions with different thermophysical properties were evaluated. Canister centerline temperatures and the total amount of heat transfer from the canisters to the surrounding air are reported.

  10. Process design and prediction of mechanical properties of dual phase steels with prepositional ultra fast cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Xiaohui; Liu, Chengbao; Liu, Zhenyu

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The cooling process of dual phase (DP) steels with the prepositional ultra fast cooling (UFC) equipment was investigated. • Two dimensional finite difference model (FEM) was used to calculate the temperature field. • The phase transformation process is simulated with the thermodynamic model and the empirical model. • The microstructure and the mechanical properties across the cross-section are predicted. • The experiments present that this prepositional UFC is feasible on CSP and on HSM line. - Abstract: We investigate here the three-stage cooling process of dual phase (DP) steels with the prepositional ultra fast cooling (UFC) equipment, which is different with the DP production line, with UFC in the end. Two dimensional finite difference model (FEM) was used to calculate the temperature field during the cooling process and classical thermodynamic model is used to develop CCT diagram. The temperature field and phase transformation process are combined to predict the microstructure and the mechanical properties across the cross-section using the thermodynamic model and the empirical model. The experiments present good mechanical properties of DP steels, which proved the production of DP steels with the prepositional UFC equipment is feasible

  11. Observed and predicted cooling tower plume rise at the John E. Amos Power Plant, West Virginia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, S.R.

    1977-01-01

    There is much current interest in cooling tower plume rise because of its importance in determining the environmental impact of cooling towers at planned power plants and industrial facilities. Some of the possible environmental problems related to heat and water emissions from cooling towers are drift deposition, ground level fog, cloud formation, and precipitation enhancement. An important factor in all of these problems is the calculation of the plume trajectory, which is often complicated by the presence of multiple sources and water phase changes in the plume. The latent heat does not strongly influence plume rise if there is no cloud present at the top of the plume. A one dimensional plume and cloud growth model was developed to study these effects. In this paper, the predictions of the model are compared with observations of cooling tower plume rise at the John E. Amos, W. Va. fossil-fuel power plant

  12. Determining passive cooling limits in CPV using an analytical thermal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gualdi, Federico; Arenas, Osvaldo; Vossier, Alexis; Dollet, Alain; Aimez, Vincent; Arès, Richard

    2013-09-01

    We propose an original thermal analytical model aiming to predict the practical limits of passive cooling systems for high concentration photovoltaic modules. The analytical model is described and validated by comparison with a commercial 3D finite element model. The limiting performances of flat plate cooling systems in natural convection are then derived and discussed.

  13. Model-based energy monitoring and diagnosis of telecommunication cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sorrentino, Marco; Acconcia, Matteo; Panagrosso, Davide; Trifirò, Alena

    2016-01-01

    A methodology is proposed for on-line monitoring of cooling load supplied by Telecommunication (TLC) cooling systems. Sensible cooling load is estimated via a proportional integral controller-based input estimator, whereas a lumped parameters model was developed aiming at estimating air handling units (AHUs) latent heat load removal. The joint deployment of above estimators enables accurate prediction of total cooling load, as well as of related AHUs and free-coolers energy performance. The procedure was then proven effective when extended to cooling systems having a centralized chiller, through model-based estimation of a key performance metric, such as the energy efficiency ratio. The results and experimental validation presented throughout the paper confirm the suitability of the proposed procedure as a reliable and effective energy monitoring and diagnostic tool for TLC applications. Moreover, the proposed modeling approach, beyond its direct contribution towards smart use and conservation of energy, can be fruitfully deployed as a virtual sensor of removed heat load into a variety of residential and industrial applications. - Highlights: • Accurate cooling load prediction in telecommunication rooms. • Development of an input-estimator for sensible cooling load simulation. • Model-based estimation of latent cooling load. • Model-based prediction of centralized chiller energy performance in central offices. • Diagnosis-oriented application of proposed cooling load estimator.

  14. Predicting temperature drop rate of mass concrete during an initial cooling period using genetic programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, Santosh; Zhou, Yihong; Zhao, Chunju; Zhou, Huawei

    2018-02-01

    Thermal cracking on concrete dams depends upon the rate at which the concrete is cooled (temperature drop rate per day) within an initial cooling period during the construction phase. Thus, in order to control the thermal cracking of such structure, temperature development due to heat of hydration of cement should be dropped at suitable rate. In this study, an attempt have been made to formulate the relation between cooling rate of mass concrete with passage of time (age of concrete) and water cooling parameters: flow rate and inlet temperature of cooling water. Data measured at summer season (April-August from 2009 to 2012) from recently constructed high concrete dam were used to derive a prediction model with the help of Genetic Programming (GP) software “Eureqa”. Coefficient of Determination (R) and Mean Square Error (MSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The value of R and MSE is 0.8855 and 0.002961 respectively. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the relative impact on the target parameter due to input parameters. Further, testing the proposed model with an independent dataset those not included during analysis, results obtained from the proposed GP model are close enough to the real field data.

  15. Parametric study on the advantages of weather-predicted control algorithm of free cooling ventilation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medved, Sašo; Babnik, Miha; Vidrih, Boris; Arkar, Ciril

    2014-01-01

    Predicted climate changes and the increased intensity of urban heat islands, as well as population aging, will increase the energy demand for the cooling of buildings in the future. However, the energy demand for cooling can be efficiently reduced by low-exergy free-cooling systems, which use natural processes, like evaporative cooling or the environmental cold of ambient air during night-time ventilation for the cooling of buildings. Unlike mechanical cooling systems, the energy for the operation of free-cooling system is needed only for the transport of the cold from the environment into the building. Because the natural cold potential is time dependent, the efficiency of free-cooling systems could be improved by introducing a weather forecast into the algorithm for the controlling. In the article, a numerical algorithm for the optimization of the operation of free-cooling systems with night-time ventilation is presented and validated on a test cell with different thermal storage capacities and during different ambient conditions. As a case study, the advantage of weather-predicted controlling is presented for a summer week for typical office room. The results show the necessity of the weather-predicted controlling of free-cooling ventilation systems for achieving the highest overall energy efficiency of such systems in comparison to mechanical cooling, better indoor comfort conditions and a decrease in the primary energy needed for cooling of the buildings. - Highlights: • Energy demand for cooling will increase due to climate changes and urban heat island • Free cooling could significantly reduce energy demand for cooling of the buildings. • Free cooling is more effective if weather prediction is included in operation control. • Weather predicted free cooling operation algorithm was validated on test cell. • Advantages of free-cooling on mechanical cooling is shown with different indicators

  16. Modeling of hydronic radiant cooling of a thermally homeostatic building using a parametric cooling tower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Peizheng; Wang, Lin-Shu; Guo, Nianhua

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Investigated cooling of thermally homeostatic buildings in 7 U.S. cities by modeling. • Natural energy is harnessed by cooling tower to extract heat for building cooling. • Systematically studied possibility and conditions of using cooling tower in buildings. • Diurnal ambient temperature amplitude is taken into account in cooling tower cooling. • Homeostatic building cooling is possible in locations with large ambient T amplitude. - Abstract: A case is made that while it is important to mitigate dissipative losses associated with heat dissipation and mechanical/electrical resistance for engineering efficiency gain, the “architect” of energy efficiency is the conception of best heat extraction frameworks—which determine the realm of possible efficiency. This precept is applied to building energy efficiency here. Following a proposed process assumption-based design method, which was used for determining the required thermal qualities of building thermal autonomy, this paper continues this line of investigation and applies heat extraction approach investigating the extent of building partial homeostasis and the possibility of full homeostasis by using cooling tower in one summer in seven selected U.S. cities. Cooling tower heat extraction is applied parametrically to hydronically activated radiant-surfaces model-buildings. Instead of sizing equipment as a function of design peak hourly temperature as it is done in heat balance design-approach of selecting HVAC equipment, it is shown that the conditions of using cooling tower depend on both “design-peak” daily-mean temperature and the distribution of diurnal range in hourly temperature (i.e., diurnal temperature amplitude). Our study indicates that homeostatic building with natural cooling (by cooling tower alone) is possible only in locations of special meso-scale climatic condition such as Sacramento, CA. In other locations the use of cooling tower alone can only achieve homeostasis

  17. Simplified approach of predictions of thermal performance for counterflow fully-wet cooling coil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansour, M. Khamis; Hassab, M. A.

    2017-06-01

    An innovative correlation associating the effectiveness (ɛ) of the fully-wet cooling coil with its number of transfer unit and vice versa is presented in this work. The thermal performance and design of fully-wet cooling coil can be predicted simply through those correlations. The analytical model was constructed on a basis of solving heat and mass transfer equation "enthalpy potential method" simultaneously coupled with the energy equations. The validity of the new correlations was tested by experimental reported in the available literature. A good agreement with deviation less than 10% was found during the comparison between the output results of the new correlations and those obtained from the literature. The main benefits of those new correlations (1) Its simplicity to be implemented through simple calculations of input parameters (2) It provides helpful guidelines for optimization of wet cooling coil performance during its operation coupling with the thermal system at which the coil is integrated.

  18. Computer modeling of lime-soda softening of cooling waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, J.C.Y.

    1986-01-01

    A computer model is developed to fully describe the lime soda ash softening process. This process has a long history of being used to remove calcium and magnesium hardness from cooling waters in order to prevent scaling on heat exchangers. Softening of makeup water and/or a sidestream from the recirculating water will allow a reduction in blowdown. In the extreme case, zero blowdown may be accomplished to conserve cooling waters and to save the costs of disposing of blowdown. Cooling waters differ from most natural waters in having higher temperature and higher concentration of dissolved solids, and, therefore, a higher ionic strength. These factors plus the effects of complex formation are taken into consideration in the development of the computer model. To determine the composition of a softened water, the model assumes that an equilibrium state is reached in a reactor, and employs the equations of mass action and mass balance. The resulting nonlinear simultaneous equations are then linearized by Taylor series expansion and solved by the multidimensional Newton-Raphson method. The computer predictions are compared to the results of laboratory studies using synthetic waters

  19. Modelling of thermohydraulic emergency core cooling phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Andreani, M.; Lewis, M.J.

    1990-10-01

    The codes used in the early seventies for safety analysis and licensing were based either on the homogeneous model of two-phase flow or on the so-called separate-flow models, which are mixture models accounting, however, for the difference in average velocity between the two phases. In both cases the behavior of the mixture is prescribed a priori as a function of local parameters such as the mass flux and the quality. The modern best-estimate codes used for analyzing LWR LOCA's and transients are often based on a two-fluid or 6-equation formulation of the conservation equations. In this case the conservation equations are written separately for each phase; the mixture is allowed to evolve on its own, governed by the interfacial exchanges of mass, momentum and energy between the phases. It is generally agreed that such relatively sophisticated 6-equation formulations of two-phase flow are necessary for the correct modelling of a number of phenomena and situations arising in LWR accidental situations. They are in particular indispensible for the analysis of stratified or countercurrent flows and of situations in which large departures from thermal and velocity equilibrium exist. This report will be devoted to a discussion of the need for, the capacity and the limitations of the two-phase flow models (with emphasis on the 6-equation formulations) in modelling these two-phase flow and heat transfer phenomena and/or different core cooling situations. 18 figs., 1 tab., 72 refs

  20. A simplified model of dynamic interior cooling load evaluation for office buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding, Yan; Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Zhaoxia; Liu, Min; He, Qing

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The core interior disturbance was determined by principle component analysis. • Influences of occupants on cooling load should be described using time series. • A simplified model was built to evaluate dynamic interior building cooling load. - Abstract: Predicted cooling load is a valuable tool for assessing the operation of air-conditioning systems. Compared with exterior cooling load, interior cooling load is more unpredictable. According to principle components analysis, occupancy was proved to be a typical factor influencing interior cooling loads in buildings. By exploring the regularity of interior disturbances in an office building, a simplified evaluation model for interior cooling load was established in this paper. The stochastic occupancy rate was represented by a Markov transition model. Equipment power, lighting power and fresh air were all related to occupancy rate based on time sequence. The superposition of different types of interior cooling loads was also considered in the evaluation model. The error between the evaluation results and measurement results was found to be lower than 10%. In reference to the cooling loads calculated by the traditional design method and area-based method in case study office rooms, the evaluated cooling loads were suitable for operation regulation.

  1. A review of thermoelectric cooling: Materials, modeling and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dongliang; Tan, Gang

    2014-01-01

    This study reviews the recent advances of thermoelectric materials, modeling approaches, and applications. Thermoelectric cooling systems have advantages over conventional cooling devices, including compact in size, light in weight, high reliability, no mechanical moving parts, no working fluid, being powered by direct current, and easily switching between cooling and heating modes. In this study, historical development of thermoelectric cooling has been briefly introduced first. Next, the development of thermoelectric materials has been given and the achievements in past decade have been summarized. To improve thermoelectric cooling system's performance, the modeling techniques have been described for both the thermoelement modeling and thermoelectric cooler (TEC) modeling including standard simplified energy equilibrium model, one-dimensional and three-dimensional models, and numerical compact model. Finally, the thermoelectric cooling applications have been reviewed in aspects of domestic refrigeration, electronic cooling, scientific application, and automobile air conditioning and seat temperature control, with summaries for the commercially available thermoelectric modules and thermoelectric refrigerators. It is expected that this study will be beneficial to thermoelectric cooling system design, simulation, and analysis. - Highlights: •Thermoelectric cooling has great prospects with thermoelectric material's advances. •Modeling techniques for both thermoelement and TEC have been reviewed. •Principle thermoelectric cooling applications have been reviewed and summarized

  2. ANN-Based Prediction and Optimization of Cooling System in Hotel Rooms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Woo Moon

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at developing an artificial-neural-network (ANN-based model that can calculate the required time for restoring the current indoor temperature during the setback period in accommodation buildings to the normal set-point temperature in the cooling season. By applying the calculated time in the control logic, the operation of the cooling system can be predetermined to condition the indoor temperature comfortably in a more energy-efficient manner. Three major steps employing the numerical computer simulation method were conducted for developing an ANN model and testing its prediction performance. In the development process, the initial ANN model was determined to have input neurons that had a significant statistical relationship with the output neuron. In addition, the structure of the ANN model and learning methods were optimized through the parametrical analysis of the prediction performance. Finally, through the performance tests in terms of prediction accuracy, the optimized ANN model presented a lower mean biased error (MBE rate between the simulation and prediction results under generally accepted levels. Thus, the developed ANN model was proven to have the potential to be applied to thermal control logic.

  3. Electrical conductivity of old oceanic mantle in the northwestern Pacific I: 1-D profiles suggesting differences in thermal structure not predictable from a plate cooling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Kiyoshi; Tada, Noriko; Matsuno, Tetsuo; Liang, Pengfei; Li, Ruibai; Zhang, Luolei; Shimizu, Hisayoshi; Abe, Natsue; Hirano, Naoto; Ichiki, Masahiro; Utada, Hisashi

    2017-08-01

    Seafloor magnetotelluric (MT) experiments were recently conducted in two areas of the northwestern Pacific to investigate the nature of the old oceanic upper mantle. The areas are far from any tectonic activity, and "normal" mantle structure is therefore expected. The data were carefully analyzed to reduce the effects of coastlines and seafloor topographic changes, which are significant boundaries in electrical conductivity and thus distort seafloor MT data. An isotropic, one-dimensional electrical conductivity profile was estimated for each area. The profiles were compared with those obtained from two previous study areas in the northwestern Pacific. Between the four profiles, significant differences were observed in the thickness of the resistive layer beyond expectations based on cooling of homogeneous oceanic lithosphere over time. This surprising feature is now further clarified from what was suggested in a previous study. To explain the observed spatial variation, dynamic processes must be introduced, such as influence of the plume associated with the formation of the Shatsky Rise, or spatially non-uniform, small-scale convection in the asthenosphere. There is significant room of further investigation to determine a reasonable and comprehensive interpretation of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system beneath the northwestern Pacific. The present results demonstrate that electrical conductivity provides key information for such investigation.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  4. THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF COOLING RECYCLED WATER IN A COOLING TOWER WITH MECHANICAL TRACTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. K. Bitiukov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. Analyzed the process of cooling recycled water in the block of cooling towers with forced draft as a control object. Established that for a given construction of the cooling tower its work determined by the ratio of mass flows of water and air. Spending hot water in tower on cooling and rotation speed of shafts of fans are control actions in the waterblock. Controlled perturbation - temperature, humidity, barometric pressure, air temperature and pressure hot water. Uncontrolled disturbance - change of total heat transfer coefficients in the cooling towers, wind speed and direction, formation of ice on the input windows. Mathematical model of cooling process describes the joint heat-and-mass transfer in cooling tower, current water film, the deposition of water droplets, the consumption of electric energy by fan unit allows to optimize the process of cooling through minimizing the total value of active electric power consumed by all cooling towers. It is based on the modified equation of Merkel, equations of Klauzir-Clapeyron, Navier-Stokes. Model is valid under the assumption that the temperature of the water at the interface is equal to the weight average temperature of water, with the air at the interface is saturated. Accepted that the heat flow from the water to the air along the normal to the boundary surface depends on the difference of enthalpy of these environments at the edge of the boundary surfacesection and the weight average enthalpy, water and air are distributed evenly over the crosssectional area of the sprinkler. Development takes into account peculiarities of fluid motion in the sprinkler and allows to determine the adiabatic saturation temperature of the air by the method of "wet" thermometer without its direct measurement. The model is applicable to control the cooling process in real-time.

  5. Elastocaloric cooling device: Materials and modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tusek, Jaka; Engelbrecht, Kurt; Pryds, Nini

    2015-01-01

    was demonstrated in Ni-Ti-based, Cu-based as well as Fe-based shape memory alloys. Although these studies showed a great potential of the elastocaloric effect, there has not yet been much activities on development of elastocaloric cooling devices. Some ideas on elastocaloric cooling device have already been...

  6. Assessing the Performance of Clostridium perfringens Cooling Models for Cooked, Uncured Meat and Poultry Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr, T B; Juneja, V K; Thippareddi, H H; Schaffner, D W; Bronstein, P A; Silverman, M; Cook, L V

    2015-08-01

    Heat-resistant spores of Clostridium perfringens may germinate and multiply in cooked meat and poultry products when the rate and extent of cooling does not occur in a timely manner. Therefore, six cooling models (PMP 7.0 broth model; PMIP uncured beef, chicken, and pork models; Smith-Schaffner version 3; and UK IFR ComBase Perfringens Predictor) were evaluated for relative performance in predicting growth of C. perfringens under dynamic temperature conditions encountered during cooling of cooked, uncured meat and poultry products. The predicted growth responses from the models were extensively compared with those observed in food. Data from 188 time-temperature cooling profiles (176 for single-rate exponential cooling and 12 for dual-rate exponential cooling) were collected from 17 independent sources (16 peer-reviewed publications and one report) for model evaluation. Data were obtained for a variety of cooked products, including meat and poultry slurries, ground meat and poultry products with and without added ingredients (e.g., potato starch, sodium triphosphate, and potassium tetrapyrophosphate), and processed products such as ham and roast beef. Performance of the models was evaluated using three sets of criteria, and accuracy was defined within a 1- to 2-log range. The percentages of accurate, fail-safe, or fail-dangerous predictions for each cooling model differed depending on which criterion was used to evaluate the data set. Nevertheless, the combined percentages of accurate and fail-safe predictions based on the three performance criteria were 34.66 to 42.61% for the PMP 7.0 beef broth model, 100% for the PMIP cooling models for uncured beef, uncured pork and uncured chicken, 80.11 to 93.18% for the Smith-Schaffner cooling model, and 74.43 to 85.23% for the UK IFR ComBase Perfringens Predictor model during single-rate exponential chilling. Except for the PMP 7.0 broth model, the other five cooling models (PMIP, Smith-Schaffner, and UK IFR ComBase) are

  7. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    refining formal, inductive predictive models is the quality of the archaeological and environmental data. To build models efficiently, relevant...geomorphology, and historic information . Lessons Learned: The original model was focused on the identification of prehistoric resources. This...system but uses predictive modeling informally . For example, there is no probability for buried archaeological deposits on the Burton Mesa, but there is

  8. Predicting hourly cooling load in the building: A comparison of support vector machine and different artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Qiong; Meng Qinglin; Cai Jiejin; Yoshino, Hiroshi; Mochida, Akashi

    2009-01-01

    This study presents four modeling techniques for the prediction of hourly cooling load in the building. In addition to the traditional back propagation neural network (BPNN), the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), general regression neural network (GRNN) and support vector machine (SVM) are considered. All the prediction models have been applied to an office building in Guangzhou, China. Evaluation of the prediction accuracy of the four models is based on the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean relative error (MRE). The simulation results demonstrate that the four discussed models can be effective for building cooling load prediction. The SVM and GRNN methods can achieve better accuracy and generalization than the BPNN and RBFNN methods

  9. Elastocaloric cooling device: Materials and modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tusek, Jaka; Engelbrecht, Kurt; Pryds, Nini

    2015-01-01

    of a magnetic field). However, the possibility of inducing a thermodynamic transition by means of mechanical stress (martensitic transformation), i.e. the elastocaloric effect in superelastic materials, opens up new routes for solid-state refrigeration. In the recent years a large elastocaloric effect...... was demonstrated in Ni-Ti-based, Cu-based as well as Fe-based shape memory alloys. Although these studies showed a great potential of the elastocaloric effect, there has not yet been much activities on development of elastocaloric cooling devices. Some ideas on elastocaloric cooling device have already been...

  10. Modeling and Exergy Analysis of District Cooling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Chan

    in the gas cooler, pinch temperature in the evaporator and effectiveness of the IHX. These results are complemented by the exergy analysis, where the exergy destruction ratio of the CO2 system’s component is found. Heat recovery from vapour compression heat pumps has been investigated. The heat is to be used...... based system is the investment cost for the pipes. To overcome this, a combined district heating and cooling system based on CO2 as refrigerant and transport fluid is proposed. Exergoeconomic analysis has been used to evaluate and optimize a CO2 based system for combined heating and cooling...

  11. A heat dissipating model for water cooling garments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Kai

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A water cooling garment is a functional clothing used to dissipate human body’s redundant energy in extravehicular environment or other hot environment. Its heat dissipating property greatly affects body’s heat balance. In this paper, a heat dissipating model for the water cooling garment is established and verified experimentally using the experimental thermal-manikin.

  12. A heat dissipating model for water cooling garments

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Kai; Jiao Ming-Li; Liu Zhe; Zhang Wei-Yuan

    2013-01-01

    A water cooling garment is a functional clothing used to dissipate human body’s redundant energy in extravehicular environment or other hot environment. Its heat dissipating property greatly affects body’s heat balance. In this paper, a heat dissipating model for the water cooling garment is established and verified experimentally using the experimental thermal-manikin.

  13. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  14. Numerical-Model Investigation of the Hydrothermal Regime of a Straight-Through Shallow Cooling Pond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sokolov, A. S. [JSC ' VNIIG im. B. E. Vedeneeva' (Russian Federation)

    2013-11-15

    A mathematic model based on solution of hydrodynamics and heat-transfer equations by the finite-element method is constructed to predict the hydrothermal regime of a straight-through shallow cooling pond, which provides cooling circulating water to a repository of spent nuclear fuel. Numerical experiments made it possible to evaluate the influence exerted by wind conditions and flow rate of water in the river on the temperature of the circulating water.

  15. Hourly cooling load prediction of a vehicle in the southern region of Turkey by Artificial Neural Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solmaz, Ozgur; Ozgoren, Muammer; Aksoy, Muharrem Hilmi

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • An ANN model was developed to predict hourly cooling load of a vehicle. • Hourly meteorological data of 5 different provinces was used. • The agreement of the cooling load values between the calculations and predictions was fairly promising. • The ANN model could be successfully used to design automotive air conditioning systems. - Abstract: In this study, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) method for prediction hourly cooling load of a vehicle was implemented. The cooling load of the vehicle was calculated along the cooling season (1 May–30 September) for Antalya, Konya, Mersin, Mugla and Sanliurfa provinces in Turkey. For ANN model, seven neurons determinated as input signals of latitude, longitude, altitude, day of the year, hour of the day, hourly mean ambient air temperature and hourly solar radiation were used for the input layer of the network. One neuron producing an output signal of the hourly cooling load was utilized in the output layer. All data were divided into two categories for training and testing of the ANN. The 80% of the data was reserved to training and the remaining was used for testing of the model. Neuron numbers in the hidden layer from 7 to 40 were tested step by step to find the best matching ANN structure. The obtained results for different numbers of neurons were compared in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and mean absolute error (MAE). The best matching results for the training and testing were obtained as 8 neurons for the minimum testing RMSE value for the prediction of cooling load by the ANN model on the 23rd day of each month along the cooling season. For the model with 8 neurons RMSE, R 2 and MAE (Training/Testing) were found to be 0.0128/0.0259, 0.9959/0.9818 and 78.81/174.71 W/m 2 , respectively. It is shown that the cooling load of a vehicle can be successfully predicted by means of the ANNs from geographical characteristics and meteorological data

  16. Film cooling modeling of a turbine vane with multiple configurations of holes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.H. Liu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Film cooling flow is important for gas turbine thermal protection. But it is difficult to predict the film cooling flow performances. The aim of this paper is to modeling the film cooling flow of a turbine vane with endwall film cooling, showerhead film cooling, and pressure/suction side film cooling simultaneously. Developing a method by adding endwall film cooling domain, the endwall film cooling flow can be simulated by CFD. This method can include heat transfer between flow and solid and capture the coolant details in the entering tubes. The conjugate heat transfer (CHT method was utilized for fluid-solid thermal transfer at interfaces. The results show that the highest film overall effectiveness occurred immediately downstream the holes. The distribution of overall effectiveness is relatively homogenous in the zones between holes row in the leading edge no matter considering solid conduction. Without solid thermal transfer, better lateral coverage downstream the holes can form due to higher density ratio. The overall effectiveness and temperature field are affected by solid conduction, but the aerodynamic performance keeps consistent. Single row of holes in endwall cannot form good coverage in the lateral direction, but the showerhead film cooling configuration can form a preferable coverage layer.

  17. Development of the interactive model between Component Cooling Water System and Containment Cooling System using GOTHIC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byun, Choong Sup; Song, Dong Soo; Jun, Hwang Yong

    2006-01-01

    In a design point of view, component cooling water (CCW) system is not full-interactively designed with its heat loads. Heat loads are calculated from the CCW design flow and temperature condition which is determined with conservatism. Then the CCW heat exchanger is sized by using total maximized heat loads from above calculation. This approach does not give the optimized performance results and the exact trends of CCW system and the loads during transient. Therefore a combined model for performance analysis of containment and the component cooling water(CCW) system is developed by using GOTHIC software code. The model is verified by using the design parameters of component cooling water heat exchanger and the heat loads during the recirculation mode of loss of coolant accident scenario. This model may be used for calculating the realistic containment response and CCW performance, and increasing the ultimate heat sink temperature limits

  18. Simplified Building Thermal Model Used for Optimal Control of Radiant Cooling System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei He

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available MPC has the ability to optimize the system operation parameters for energy conservation. Recently, it has been used in HVAC systems for saving energy, but there are very few applications in radiant cooling systems. To implement MPC in buildings with radiant terminals, the predictions of cooling load and thermal environment are indispensable. In this paper, a simplified thermal model is proposed for predicting cooling load and thermal environment in buildings with radiant floor. In this thermal model, the black-box model is introduced to derive the incident solar radiation, while the genetic algorithm is utilized to identify the parameters of the thermal model. In order to further validate this simplified thermal model, simulated results from TRNSYS are compared with those from this model and the deviation is evaluated based on coefficient of variation of root mean square (CV. The results show that the simplified model can predict the operative temperature with a CV lower than 1% and predict cooling loads with a CV lower than 10%. For the purpose of supervisory control in HVAC systems, this simplified RC thermal model has an acceptable accuracy and can be used for further MPC in buildings with radiation terminals.

  19. Artificial neural network analysis based on genetic algorithm to predict the performance characteristics of a cross flow cooling tower

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jiasheng; Cao, Lin; Zhang, Guoqiang

    2018-02-01

    Cooling tower of air conditioning has been widely used as cooling equipment, and there will be broad application prospect if it can be reversibly used as heat source under heat pump heating operation condition. In view of the complex non-linear relationship of each parameter in the process of heat and mass transfer inside tower, In this paper, the BP neural network model based on genetic algorithm optimization (GABP neural network model) is established for the reverse use of cross flow cooling tower. The model adopts the structure of 6 inputs, 13 hidden nodes and 8 outputs. With this model, the outlet air dry bulb temperature, wet bulb temperature, water temperature, heat, sensible heat ratio and heat absorbing efficiency, Lewis number, a total of 8 the proportion of main performance parameters were predicted. Furthermore, the established network model is used to predict the water temperature and heat absorption of the tower at different inlet temperatures. The mean relative error MRE between BP predicted value and experimental value are 4.47%, 3.63%, 2.38%, 3.71%, 6.35%,3.14%, 13.95% and 6.80% respectively; the mean relative error MRE between GABP predicted value and experimental value are 2.66%, 3.04%, 2.27%, 3.02%, 6.89%, 3.17%, 11.50% and 6.57% respectively. The results show that the prediction results of GABP network model are better than that of BP network model; the simulation results are basically consistent with the actual situation. The GABP network model can well predict the heat and mass transfer performance of the cross flow cooling tower.

  20. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  1. Modelling of flow and heat transfer in PV cooling channels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diarra, D.C.; Harrison, S.J. [Queen' s Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada). Dept. of Mechanical and Materials Engineering Solar Calorimetry Lab; Akuffo, F.O. [Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology, Kumasi (Ghana). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2005-07-01

    Under sunny conditions, the temperature of photovoltaic (PV) modules can be 20 to 30 degrees C above the ambient air temperature. This affects the performance of PV modules, particularly in regions with hot climates. For silicon solar cells, the maximum power decreases between 0.4 and 0.5 per cent for every degree C of temperature increase above a reference value. In an effort to address this issue, this experimental and numerical study examined an active PV panel evaporative cooling scheme that is typically used in hot arid climates. The cooling system circulated cool air behind the PV modules, extracting heat and lowering solar cell temperature. A fluid dynamic and thermal model of the combined system was developed using the EES program in order to study the configuration of the cooling channel and the characteristics of the cooling flow. Heat transfer and flow characteristics in the cooling channel were then calculated along with pressure drop and fan power associated with the air-circulation. The net power output was also calculated. The objective was to design a cost efficient cooling system and to optimize its flow and pressure drop in order to maximize power output. The study demonstrated how the performance of the PV panel is influenced by the geometry of the cooling channel, the inlet air temperature and the air flow rate. 2 refs.

  2. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  3. Zephyr - the prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2001-01-01

    utilities as partners and users. The new models are evaluated for five wind farms in Denmark as well as one wind farm in Spain. It is shown that the predictions based on conditional parametric models are superior to the predictions obatined by state-of-the-art parametric models.......This paper briefly describes new models and methods for predicationg the wind power output from wind farms. The system is being developed in a project which has the research organization Risø and the department of Informatics and Mathematical Modelling (IMM) as the modelling team and all the Danish...

  4. Prediction of Continuous Cooling Transformation Diagrams for Dual-Phase Steels from the Intercritical Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colla, V.; Desanctis, M.; Dimatteo, A.; Lovicu, G.; Valentini, R.

    2011-09-01

    The purpose of the present work is the implementation and validation of a model able to predict the microstructure changes and the mechanical properties in the modern high-strength dual-phase steels after the continuous annealing process line (CAPL) and galvanizing (Galv) process. Experimental continuous cooling transformation (CCT) diagrams for 13 differently alloying dual-phase steels were measured by dilatometry from the intercritical range and were used to tune the parameters of the microstructural prediction module of the model. Mechanical properties and microstructural features were measured for more than 400 dual-phase steels simulating the CAPL and Galv industrial process, and the results were used to construct the mechanical model that predicts mechanical properties from microstructural features, chemistry, and process parameters. The model was validated and proved its efficiency in reproducing the transformation kinetic and mechanical properties of dual-phase steels produced by typical industrial process. Although it is limited to the dual-phase grades and chemical compositions explored, this model will constitute a useful tool for the steel industry.

  5. Modeling and Exergy Analysis of District Cooling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Chan

    in a district heating system based on combined heat and power plants (CHP). A theoretical comparison of trigeneration (cooling, heating and electricity) systems, a traditional system and a recovery system is carried out. The comparison is based on the systems overall exergy efficiency. The traditional system......, R22 and R143a) are chosen to be representative for current refrigeration plants of the traditional and recovery system. Also different refrigeration cycle, one and two stage cycle is considered. The CHP plants considered is back-pressure and extraction plant. In general heat recovery is more...... beneficial if the district heating system is based on back-pressure rather than on extraction CHP plant. Heat recovery with extraction CHP plant is in general questionable. If heat recovery is considered it is recommendable to use two stage cycle rather than one stage cycle heat pump. Apportioning the costs...

  6. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  7. Prediction of mechanical properties of Al alloys with change of cooling rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quan-Zhi Dong

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The solidification process significantly affects the mechanical properties and there are lots of factors that affect the solidification process. Much progress has been made in the research on the effect of solidification on mechanical properties. Among them, the PF (Phase Field model and CA (Cellular Automata model are widely used as simulation methods which can predict nucleation and its growth, and the size and morphology of the grains during solidification. Although they can give accurate calculation results, it needs too much computational memory and calculation time. So it is difficult to apply the simulation to the real production process. In this study, a more practical simulation approach which can predict the mechanical properties of real aluminum alloys is proposed, by identifying through experiment the relationship between cooling rate and SDAS (Secondary Dendrite Arm Spacing and mechanical properties. The experimentally measured values and the values predicted by simulation have relatively small differences and the mechanical properties of a variety of Al alloys are expected to be predicted before casting through use of the simulation.

  8. Prediction of the cooling energy requirement in buildings using the degree-days method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samo, S.R.; Mari, H.B.; Saand, A.

    2000-01-01

    A method (which is supposed to be used first time in Pakistan) Degree-Days for the prediction of seasonal energy requirements for cooling is briefly discussed. This method requires the simulation of the pattern of external temperature variations in buildings, over seasons, in response, to exposure to the weather conditions. The cooling degree-days of capital cities of four provinces and the capital of Pakistan, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Quetta, and Islamabad from 1987-1996, are calculated from the available meteorological data by using a computer program. The seasonal cooling energy requirement of a sample dwelling in different regions of Pakistan is also compared. This study shows that the average cooling degree-days in Lahore are about seven times more than the degree-days in Quetta. In Pakistan cooling requirement starts from April to October. (author)

  9. Modeling of Nonlinear Marine Cooling Systems with Closed Circuit Flow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael; Stoustrup, Jakob; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

    2011-01-01

    We consider the problem of constructing a mathematical model for a specific type of marine cooling system. The system in question is used for cooling the main engine and main engine auxiliary components, such as diesel generators, turbo chargers and main engine air coolers for certain classes...... of container ships. The purpose of the model is to describe the important dynamics of the system, such as nonlinearities, transport delays and closed circuit flow dynamics to enable the model to be used for control design and simulation. The control challenge is related to the highly non-standard type of step...

  10. Modeling conductive cooling for thermally stressed dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebremedhin, Kifle G; Wu, Binxin; Perano, K

    2016-02-01

    Conductive cooling, which is based on direct contact between a cow lying down and a cooled surface (water mattress, or any other heat exchanger embedded under the bedding), allows heat transfer from the cow to the cooled surface, and thus alleviate heat stress of the cow. Conductive cooling is a novel technology that has the potential to reduce the consumption of energy and water in cooling dairy cows compared to some current practices. A three-dimensional conduction model that simulates cooling thermally-stressed dairy cows was developed. The model used a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method to characterize the air-flow field surrounding the animal model. The flow field was obtained by solving the continuity and the momentum equations. The heat exchange between the animal and the cooled water mattress as well as between the animal and ambient air was determined by solving the energy equation. The relative humidity was characterized using the species transport equation. The conduction 3-D model was validated against experimental temperature data and the agreement was very good (average error is 4.4% and the range is 1.9-8.3%) for a mesh size of 1117202. Sensitivity analyses were conducted between heat losses (sensible and latent) with respect to air temperature, relative humidity, air velocity, and level of wetness of skin surface to determine which of the parameters affect heat flux more than others. Heat flux was more sensitive to air temperature and level of wetness of the skin surface and less sensitive to relative humidity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Modelling the radiolysis of RSG-GAS primary cooling water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butarbutar, S. L.; Kusumastuti, R.; Subekti, M.; Sunaryo, G. R.

    2018-02-01

    Water chemistry control for light water coolant reactor required a reliable understanding of radiolysis effect in mitigating corrosion and degradation of reactor structure material. It is known that oxidator products can promote the corrosion, cracking and hydrogen pickup both in the core and in the associated piping components of the reactor. The objective of this work is to provide the radiolysis model of RSG GAS cooling water and further more to predict the oxidator concentration which can lead to corrosion of reactor material. Direct observations or measurements of the chemistry in and around the high-flux core region of a nuclear reactor are difficult due to the extreme conditions of high temperature, pressure, and mixed radiation fields. For this reason, chemical models and computer simulations of the radiolysis of water under these conditions are an important route of investigation. FACSIMILE were used to calculate the concentration of O2 formed at relatively long-time by the pure water γ and neutron irradiation (pH=7) at temperature between 25 and 50 °C. This simulation method is based on a complex chemical reaction kinetic. In this present work, 300 MeV-proton were used to mimic γ-rays radiolysis and 2 MeV fast neutrons. Concentration of O2 were calculated at 10-6 - 106 s time scale.

  12. Mathematical Model for Direct Evaporative Space Cooling Systems ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper deals with the development of a simple mathematical model for experimental validation of the performance of a small evaporative cooling system in a tropical climate. It also presents the coefficient of convective heat transfer of wide range of temperatures based on existing model. Extensive experiments have ...

  13. modelling room cooling capacity with fuzzy logic procedure

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The primary aim of this study is to develop a model for estimation of the cooling requirement of residential rooms. Fuzzy logic was employed to model four input variables (window area (m2), roof area (m2), external wall area (m2) and internal load (Watt). The algorithm of the inference engine applied sets of 81 linguistic ...

  14. Prediction, analysis and solution of flow inversion phenomenon in a typical MTR reactor with upward core cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Morshedy, Salah El-Din

    2010-01-01

    Research reactors of power greater than 20 MW are usually designed to be cooled with upward coolant flow direction inside the reactor core. This is mainly to prevent flow inversion problems following a pump coast down. However, in some designs and under certain operating conditions, flow inversion phenomenon is predicted. In the present work, the best-estimate Material Testing Reactors Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis program (MTRTHA) is used to simulate a typical MTR reactor behavior with upward cooling under a hypothetical case of loss of off-site power. The flow inversion phenomenon is predicted under certain decay heat and/or pool temperature values below the design values. The reactor simulation under loss of off-site power is performed for two cases namely; two-flap valves open and one flap-valve fails to open. The model results for the flow inversion phenomenon prediction is analyzed and a solution of the problem is suggested. (orig.)

  15. Performance predictions of a focused ion beam from a laser cooled and compressed atomic beam

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haaf, G. ten; Wouters, S. H. W.; Vredenbregt, E. J. D.; Mutsaers, P. H. A. [Department of Applied Physics, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Geer, S. B. van der [Department of Applied Physics, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands); Pulsar Physics, Burghstraat 47, 5614 BC Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2014-12-28

    Focused ion beams are indispensable tools in the semiconductor industry because of their ability to image and modify structures at the nanometer length scale. Here, we report on performance predictions of a new type of focused ion beam based on photo-ionization of a laser cooled and compressed atomic beam. Particle tracing simulations are performed to investigate the effects of disorder-induced heating after ionization in a large electric field. They lead to a constraint on this electric field strength which is used as input for an analytical model which predicts the minimum attainable spot size as a function of, amongst others, the flux density of the atomic beam, the temperature of this beam, and the total current. At low currents (I < 10 pA), the spot size will be limited by a combination of spherical aberration and brightness, while at higher currents, this is a combination of chromatic aberration and brightness. It is expected that a nanometer size spot is possible at a current of 1 pA. The analytical model was verified with particle tracing simulations of a complete focused ion beam setup. A genetic algorithm was used to find the optimum acceleration electric field as a function of the current. At low currents, the result agrees well with the analytical model, while at higher currents, the spot sizes found are even lower due to effects that are not taken into account in the analytical model.

  16. Operational cooling tower model (CTTOOL V1.0)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aleman, S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); LocalDomainServers, L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Garrett, A. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2015-01-01

    Mechanical draft cooling towers (MDCT’s) are widely used to remove waste heat from industrial processes, including suspected proliferators of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The temperature of the air being exhausted from the MDCT is proportional to the amount of thermal energy being removed from the process cooling water, although ambient weather conditions and cooling water flow rate must be known or estimated to calculate the rate of thermal energy dissipation (Q). It is theoretically possible to derive MDCT air exhaust temperatures from thermal images taken from a remote sensor. A numerical model of a MDCT is required to translate the air exhaust temperature to a Q. This report describes the MDCT model developed by the Problem Centered Integrated Analysis (PCIA) program that was designed to perform those computational tasks. The PCIA program is a collaborative effort between the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL), the Northrop-Grumman Corporation (NG) and the Aerospace Corporation (AERO).

  17. [Development of model communities (Cool Communities)]. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    This report covers progress in the Cool Communities program and is intended to detail specific accomplishments during the year and to provide a limited amount of background information about the program and its progress over the past three years. The Cool Communities project is driven by local partnerships among business, citizens, government, and guided by a Local Advisory Committee of representatives from these organizations. A national overview of the program is given in the first section. The second section describes specific accomplishments in each of the model communities in Dade County, Atlanta, Frederick, Tucson, Springfield, Austin, and the Davis Monthan Air Force Base.

  18. A simplified modeling of mechanical cooling tower for control and optimization of HVAC systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, Guang-Yu; Cai, Wen-Jian; Lu Lu; Lee, Eng Lock; Chiang, Andrew

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes a new, simple, yet accurate mechanical cooling tower model for the purpose of energy conservation and management. On the basis of Merkel's theory and effectiveness-NTU method, the model is developed by energy balance and heat, mass transfer analysis. Commissioning information is then used to identified, only three model parameters by Levenberg-Marquardt method. Compared with the existing models, the proposed model has simple characteristic parameters to be determined and without requiring iterative computation when the operating point changes. The model is validated by real operating data from the cooling towers of a heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) system of a commercial hotel. The testing results show that the performance of the cooling tower varies from time to time due to different operating conditions and the proposed model is able to reflect these changes by tuning its parameters. With this feature, the proposed model can be simply used and accurately predict the performance of the real-time operating cooling tower

  19. Model Based Control of Single-Phase Marine Cooling Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael

    2014-01-01

    these systems. Traditionally, control for this type of cooling system has been limited to open-loop control of pumps combined with a couple of local PID controllers for bypass valves to keep critical temperatures within design limits. This research considers improvements in a retrofit framework to the control...... linearization, an H∞-control design is applied to the resulting linear system. Disturbance rejection capabilities and robustness of performance for this control design methodology is compared to a baseline design derived from classical control theory. This shows promising results for the nonlinear robust design......This thesis is concerned with the problem of designing model-based control for a class of single-phase marine cooling systems. While this type of cooling system has been in existence for several decades, it is only recently that energy efficiency has become a focus point in the design and operation...

  20. Modeling the cooling performance of vortex tube using a genetic algorithm-based artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouraria Hassan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs have been used to model the effects of four important parameters consist of the ratio of the length to diameter(L/D, the ratio of the cold outlet diameter to the tube diameter(d/D, inlet pressure(P, and cold mass fraction (Y on the cooling performance of counter flow vortex tube. In this approach, experimental data have been used to train and validate the neural network model with MATLAB software. Also, genetic algorithm (GA has been used to find the optimal network architecture. In this model, temperature drop at the cold outlet has been considered as the cooling performance of the vortex tube. Based on experimental data, cooling performance of the vortex tube has been predicted by four inlet parameters (L/D, d/D, P, Y. The results of this study indicate that the genetic algorithm-based artificial neural network model is capable of predicting the cooling performance of vortex tube in a wide operating range and with satisfactory precision.

  1. The Response of Human Thermal Sensation and Its Prediction to Temperature Step-Change (Cool-Neutral-Cool)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xiuyuan; Li, Baizhan; Liu, Hong; Yang, Dong; Yu, Wei; Liao, Jianke; Huang, Zhichao; Xia, Kechao

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports on studies of the effect of temperature step-change (between a cool and a neutral environment) on human thermal sensation and skin temperature. Experiments with three temperature conditions were carried out in a climate chamber during the period in winter. Twelve subjects participated in the experiments simulating moving inside and outside of rooms or cabins with air conditioning. Skin temperatures and thermal sensation were recorded. Results showed overshoot and asymmetry of TSV due to the step-change. Skin temperature changed immediately when subjects entered a new environment. When moving into a neutral environment from cool, dynamic thermal sensation was in the thermal comfort zone and overshoot was not obvious. Air-conditioning in a transitional area should be considered to limit temperature difference to not more than 5°C to decrease the unacceptability of temperature step-change. The linear relationship between thermal sensation and skin temperature or gradient of skin temperature does not apply in a step-change environment. There is a significant linear correlation between TSV and Qloss in the transient environment. Heat loss from the human skin surface can be used to predict dynamic thermal sensation instead of the heat transfer of the whole human body. PMID:25136808

  2. The response of human thermal sensation and its prediction to temperature step-change (cool-neutral-cool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuyuan Du

    Full Text Available This paper reports on studies of the effect of temperature step-change (between a cool and a neutral environment on human thermal sensation and skin temperature. Experiments with three temperature conditions were carried out in a climate chamber during the period in winter. Twelve subjects participated in the experiments simulating moving inside and outside of rooms or cabins with air conditioning. Skin temperatures and thermal sensation were recorded. Results showed overshoot and asymmetry of TSV due to the step-change. Skin temperature changed immediately when subjects entered a new environment. When moving into a neutral environment from cool, dynamic thermal sensation was in the thermal comfort zone and overshoot was not obvious. Air-conditioning in a transitional area should be considered to limit temperature difference to not more than 5°C to decrease the unacceptability of temperature step-change. The linear relationship between thermal sensation and skin temperature or gradient of skin temperature does not apply in a step-change environment. There is a significant linear correlation between TSV and Qloss in the transient environment. Heat loss from the human skin surface can be used to predict dynamic thermal sensation instead of the heat transfer of the whole human body.

  3. Thermo-mechanical characterization of a thermoplastic composite and prediction of the residual stresses and lamina curvature during cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Péron, Mael; Jacquemin, Frédéric; Casari, Pascal; Orange, Gilles; Bailleul, Jean-Luc; Boyard, Nicolas

    2017-10-01

    The prediction of process induced stresses during the cooling of thermoplastic composites still represents a challenge for the scientific community. However, a precise determination of these stresses is necessary in order to optimize the process conditions and thus lower the stresses effects on the final part health. A model is presented here, that permits the estimation of residual stresses during cooling. It relies on the nonlinear laminate theory, which has been adapted to arbitrary layup sequences. The developed model takes into account the heat transfers through the thickness of the laminate, together with the crystallization kinetics. The development of the composite mechanical properties during cooling is addressed by an incremental linear elastic constitutive law, which also considers thermal and crystallization strains. In order to feed the aforementioned model, a glass fiber and PA6.6 matrix unidirectional (UD) composite has been characterized. This work finally focuses on the identification of the material and process related parameters that lower the residual stresses level, including the ply sequence, the fiber volume fraction and the cooling rate.

  4. Cooling nozzles characteristics for numerical models of continuous casting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Pyszko

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Modelling the temperature field of a continuously cast strand is an important tool for the process diagnostics. The main preconditions for numerical simulation of the temperature field of the solidifying strand are correct boundary conditions, especially the surface condition in the secondary zone of the caster. The paper deals with techniques of determining the surface condition under cooling nozzles as well as their approximation and implementation into the model algorithm. Techniques used for laboratory measurements of both cold and hot spraying characteristics of water or water-air cooling nozzles are described. The relationship between the cold and hot characteristics was found. Implementation of such a dependence into the model algorithm reduces the duration and cost of laboratory measurements.

  5. Modeling and Optimization of a CoolingTower-Assisted Heat Pump System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqing Wei

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available To minimize the total energy consumption of a cooling tower-assisted heat pump (CTAHP system in cooling mode, a model-based control strategy with hybrid optimization algorithm for the system is presented in this paper. An existing experimental device, which mainly contains a closed wet cooling tower with counter flow construction, a condenser water loop and a water-to-water heat pump unit, is selected as the study object. Theoretical and empirical models of the related components and their interactions are developed. The four variables, viz. desired cooling load, ambient wet-bulb temperature, temperature and flow rate of chilled water at the inlet of evaporator, are set to independent variables. The system power consumption can be minimized by optimizing input powers of cooling tower fan, spray water pump, condenser water pump and compressor. The optimal input power of spray water pump is determined experimentally. Implemented on MATLAB, a hybrid optimization algorithm, which combines the Limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS algorithm with the greedy diffusion search (GDS algorithm, is incorporated to solve the minimization problem of energy consumption and predict the system’s optimal set-points under quasi-steady-state conditions. The integrated simulation tool is validated against experimental data. The results obtained demonstrate the proposed operation strategy is reliable, and can save energy by 20.8% as compared to an uncontrolled system under certain testing conditions.

  6. Simplified model and performance analysis for top insulated metal ceiling radiant cooling panels with serpentine tube arrangement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Yu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a simplified model for top insulated metal ceiling radiant cooling panels with serpentine tube arrangement (CRCP-s to predict the mean panel temperature, outlet water temperature and cooling capacity. The simplified model needs no complicated calculation and can be conducted with a calculator. Experiment was conducted for two kinds of CRCP-s, comparisons indicate that the model predicted outlet water temperature and cooling capacity agree well with experiment measured results. The differences between model predicted and experiment measured results are acceptable for most engineering purpose, and the thermal performance analysis were conducted by the model. The results show that: (1 The tube spacing has significant effect on the cooling capacity within the applicable range of tube spacing from 0.05m to 0.3 m; (2 The tube thermal conductivity affect the cooling capacity significantly if it is less than 1.0 W/(m K; (3 The plate thickness has significant effect of the cooling capacity, if the plate thickness is less than 0.5 mm; (4 The water flowrate should be large enough to keep the flow in turbulent regime.

  7. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  8. Validation of heat transfer models for gap cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okano, Yukimitsu; Nagae, Takashi; Murase, Michio

    2004-01-01

    For severe accident assessment of a light water reactor, models of heat transfer in a narrow annular gap between overheated core debris and a reactor pressure vessel are important for evaluating vessel integrity and accident management. The authors developed and improved the models of heat transfer. However, validation was not sufficient for applicability of the gap heat flux correlation to the debris cooling in the vessel lower head and applicability of the local boiling heat flux correlations to the high-pressure conditions. Therefore, in this paper, we evaluated the validity of the heat transfer models and correlations by analyses for ALPHA and LAVA experiments where molten aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) at about 2700 K was poured into the high pressure water pool in a small-scale simulated vessel lower head. In the heating process of the vessel wall, the calculated heating rate and peak temperature agreed well with the measured values, and the validity of the heat transfer models and gap heat flux correlation was confirmed. In the cooling process of the vessel wall, the calculated cooling rate was compared with the measured value, and the validity of the nucleate boiling heat flux correlation was confirmed. The peak temperatures of the vessel wall in ALPHA and LAVA experiments were lower than the temperature at the minimum heat flux point between film boiling and transition boiling, so the minimum heat flux correlation could not be validated. (author)

  9. CFD Model Development and validation for High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hassan, Yassin [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Corradini, Michael; Tokuhiro, Akira; Wei, Thomas Y.C.

    2014-07-14

    The Reactor Cavity Cooling Systems (RCCS) is a passive safety system that will be incorporated in the VTHR design. The system was designed to remove the heat from the reactor cavity and maintain the temperature of structures and concrete walls under desired limits during normal operation (steady-state) and accident scenarios. A small scale (1:23) water-cooled experimental facility was scaled, designed, and constructed in order to study the complex thermohydraulic phenomena taking place in the RCCS during steady-state and transient conditions. The facility represents a portion of the reactor vessel with nine stainless steel coolant risers and utilizes water as coolant. The facility was equipped with instrumentation to measure temperatures and flow rates and a general verification was completed during the shakedown. A model of the experimental facility was prepared using RELAP5-3D and simulations were performed to validate the scaling procedure. The experimental data produced during the steady-state run were compared with the simulation results obtained using RELAP5-3D. The overall behavior of the facility met the expectations. The facility capabilities were confirmed to be very promising in performing additional experimental tests, including flow visualization, and produce data for code validation.

  10. Prediction of thermal behaviors of an air-cooled lithium-ion battery system for hybrid electric vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Yong Seok; Kang, Dal Mo

    2014-12-01

    Thermal management has been one of the major issues in developing a lithium-ion (Li-ion) hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) battery system since the Li-ion battery is vulnerable to excessive heat load under abnormal or severe operational conditions. In this work, in order to design a suitable thermal management system, a simple modeling methodology describing thermal behavior of an air-cooled Li-ion battery system was proposed from vehicle components designer's point of view. A proposed mathematical model was constructed based on the battery's electrical and mechanical properties. Also, validation test results for the Li-ion battery system were presented. A pulse current duty and an adjusted US06 current cycle for a two-mode HEV system were used to validate the accuracy of the model prediction. Results showed that the present model can give good estimations for simulating convective heat transfer cooling during battery operation. The developed thermal model is useful in structuring the flow system and determining the appropriate cooling capacity for a specified design prerequisite of the battery system.

  11. Natural Circulation Phenomena and Modelling for Advanced Water Cooled Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-03-01

    The role of natural circulation in advanced water cooled reactor design has been extended with the adoption of passive safety systems. Some designs utilize natural circulation to remove core heat during normal operation. Most passive safety systems used in evolutionary and innovative water cooled reactor designs are driven by natural circulation. The use of passive systems based on natural circulation can eliminate the costs associated with the installation, maintenance and operation of active systems that require multiple pumps with independent and redundant electric power supplies. However, considering the weak driving forces of passive systems based on natural circulation, careful design and analysis methods must be employed to ensure that the systems perform their intended functions. Several IAEA Member States with advanced reactor development programmes are actively conducting investigations of natural circulation to support the development of advanced water cooled reactor designs with passive safety systems. To foster international collaboration on the enabling technology of passive systems that utilize natural circulation, in 2004 the IAEA initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) on Natural Circulation Phenomena, Modelling and Reliability of Passive Systems that Utilize Natural Circulation. Three reports were published within the framework of this CRP. The first report (IAEA-TECDOC-1474) contains the material developed for the first IAEA training course on natural circulation in water cooled nuclear power plants. The second report (IAEA-TECDOC-1624) describes passive safety systems in a wide range of advanced water cooled nuclear power plant designs, with the goal of gaining insights into system design, operation and reliability. This third, and last, report summarizes the research studies completed by participating institutes during the CRP period.

  12. Comparison of Software Models for Energy Savings from Cool Roofs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    New, Joshua Ryan [ORNL; Miller, William A [ORNL; Huang, Yu (Joe) [White Box Technologies; Levinson, Ronnen [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)

    2014-01-01

    A web-based Roof Savings Calculator (RSC) has been deployed for the United States Department of Energy as an industry-consensus tool to help building owners, manufacturers, distributors, contractors and researchers easily run complex roof and attic simulations. This tool employs modern web technologies, usability design, and national average defaults as an interface to annual simulations of hour-by-hour, whole-building performance using the world-class simulation tools DOE-2.1E and AtticSim in order to provide estimated annual energy and cost savings. In addition to cool reflective roofs, RSC simulates multiple roof and attic configurations including different roof slopes, above sheathing ventilation, radiant barriers, low-emittance roof surfaces, duct location, duct leakage rates, multiple substrate types, and insulation levels. A base case and energy-efficient alternative can be compared side-by-side to estimate monthly energy. RSC was benchmarked against field data from demonstration homes in Ft. Irwin, California; while cooling savings were similar, heating penalty varied significantly across different simulation engines. RSC results reduce cool roofing cost-effectiveness thus mitigating expected economic incentives for this countermeasure to the urban heat island effect. This paper consolidates comparison of RSC s projected energy savings to other simulation engines including DOE-2.1E, AtticSim, Micropas, and EnergyPlus, and presents preliminary analyses. RSC s algorithms for capturing radiant heat transfer and duct interaction in the attic assembly are considered major contributing factors to increased cooling savings and heating penalties. Comparison to previous simulation-based studies, analysis on the force multiplier of RSC cooling savings and heating penalties, the role of radiative heat exchange in an attic assembly, and changes made for increased accuracy of the duct model are included.

  13. Modeling and experimental validation of the solar loop for absorption solar cooling system using double glazed collectors

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Solar cooling applied to buildings is without a doubt an interesting alternative for reducing energy consumption in traditional mechanical steam compression air conditioning systems. The study of these systems should have a closely purely fundamental approach including the development of numerical models in order to predict the overall installation performance. The final objective is to estimate cooling capacity, power consumption, and overall installation performance with...

  14. Model predictions and control of conditions in a CA-reefer container

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.; Verdijck, G.J.C.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper a concept for energy saving for refrigerated container transport is presented. The concept is based on model-predictive control of the set points of the cooling unit. These models predict energy consumption of the cooling unit, climatic conditions inside the cargo space, and the change

  15. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...

  16. Hourly cooling load forecasting using time-indexed ARX models with two-stage weighted least squares regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Yin; Nazarian, Ehsan; Ko, Jeonghan; Rajurkar, Kamlakar

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Developed hourly-indexed ARX models for robust cooling-load forecasting. • Proposed a two-stage weighted least-squares regression approach. • Considered the effect of outliers as well as trend of cooling load and weather patterns. • Included higher order terms and day type patterns in the forecasting models. • Demonstrated better accuracy compared with some ARX and ANN models. - Abstract: This paper presents a robust hourly cooling-load forecasting method based on time-indexed autoregressive with exogenous inputs (ARX) models, in which the coefficients are estimated through a two-stage weighted least squares regression. The prediction method includes a combination of two separate time-indexed ARX models to improve prediction accuracy of the cooling load over different forecasting periods. The two-stage weighted least-squares regression approach in this study is robust to outliers and suitable for fast and adaptive coefficient estimation. The proposed method is tested on a large-scale central cooling system in an academic institution. The numerical case studies show the proposed prediction method performs better than some ANN and ARX forecasting models for the given test data set

  17. Neural Network Model Of The PXIE RFQ Cooling System and Resonant Frequency Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edelen, Auralee [Fermilab; Biedron, Sandra [Colorado State U., Fort Collins; Bowring, Daniel [Fermilab; Chase, Brian [Fermilab; Edelen, Jonathan [Fermilab; Milton, Stephen [Colorado State U., Fort Collins; Steimel, Jim [Fermilab

    2016-06-01

    As part of the PIP-II Injector Experiment (PXIE) accel-erator, a four-vane radio frequency quadrupole (RFQ) accelerates a 30-keV, 1-mA to 10-mA H' ion beam to 2.1 MeV. It is designed to operate at a frequency of 162.5 MHz with arbitrary duty factor, including continuous wave (CW) mode. The resonant frequency is controlled solely by a water-cooling system. We present an initial neural network model of the RFQ frequency response to changes in the cooling system and RF power conditions during pulsed operation. A neural network model will be used in a model predictive control scheme to regulate the resonant frequency of the RFQ.

  18. Cooling load calculation by the radiant time series method - effect of solar radiation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Alexandre M.S. [Universidade Estadual de Maringa (UEM), PR (Brazil)], E-mail: amscosta@uem.br

    2010-07-01

    In this work was analyzed numerically the effect of three different models for solar radiation on the cooling load calculated by the radiant time series' method. The solar radiation models implemented were clear sky, isotropic sky and anisotropic sky. The radiant time series' method (RTS) was proposed by ASHRAE (2001) for replacing the classical methods of cooling load calculation, such as TETD/TA. The method is based on computing the effect of space thermal energy storage on the instantaneous cooling load. The computing is carried out by splitting the heat gain components in convective and radiant parts. Following the radiant part is transformed using time series, which coefficients are a function of the construction type and heat gain (solar or non-solar). The transformed result is added to the convective part, giving the instantaneous cooling load. The method was applied for investigate the influence for an example room. The location used was - 23 degree S and 51 degree W and the day was 21 of January, a typical summer day in the southern hemisphere. The room was composed of two vertical walls with windows exposed to outdoors with azimuth angles equals to west and east directions. The output of the different models of solar radiation for the two walls in terms of direct and diffuse components as well heat gains were investigated. It was verified that the clear sky exhibited the less conservative (higher values) for the direct component of solar radiation, with the opposite trend for the diffuse component. For the heat gain, the clear sky gives the higher values, three times higher for the peek hours than the other models. Both isotropic and anisotropic models predicted similar magnitude for the heat gain. The same behavior was also verified for the cooling load. The effect of room thermal inertia was decreasing the cooling load during the peak hours. On the other hand the higher thermal inertia values are the greater for the non peak hours. The effect

  19. Motion of flux transfer events: a test of the Cooling model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Fear

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The simple model of reconnected field line motion developed by Cooling et al. (2001 has been used in several recent case studies to explain the motion of flux transfer events across the magnetopause. We examine 213 FTEs observed by all four Cluster spacecraft under a variety of IMF conditions between November 2002 and June 2003, when the spacecraft tetrahedron separation was ~5000 km. Observed velocities were calculated from multi-spacecraft timing analysis, and compared with the velocities predicted by the Cooling model in order to check the validity of the model. After excluding three categories of FTEs (events with poorly defined velocities, a significant velocity component out of the magnetopause surface, or a scale size of less than 5000 km, we were left with a sample of 118 events. 78% of these events were consistent in both direction of motion and speed with one of the two model de Hoffmann-Teller (dHT velocities calculated from the Cooling model (to within 30° and a factor of two in the speed. We also examined the plasma signatures of several magnetosheath FTEs; the electron signatures confirm the hemisphere of connection indicated by the model in most cases. This indicates that although the model is a simple one, it is a useful tool for identifying the source regions of FTEs.

  20. Application of ANFIS for modeling of microhardness of high strength low alloy (HSLA steels in continuous cooling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Khalaj

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents some results of the research connected with the development of new approach based on the Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS of predicting the Vickers microhardness of the phase constituents occurring in five steel samples after continuous cooling. The independent variables in the model are chemical compositions, initial austenite grain size and cooling rate over the temperature range of the occurrence of phase transformations. To construct these models, 114 different experimental data were gathered from the literature. The data used in the ANFIS model is arranged in a format of twelve input parameters that cover the chemical compositions, initial austenite grain size and cooling rate, and output parameter which is Vickers microhardness. In this model, the training and testing results in the ANFIS systems have shown strong potential for prediction of effects of chemical compositions and heat treatments on hardness of microalloyed steels.

  1. Melanoma risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were

  2. A new approach to the modeling of ultimate heat sink cooling ponds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Policastro, A.J.; Wastag, M.; Paul, J.; Carhart, R.A.

    1996-01-01

    Ultimate heat sink (UHS) cooling pond thermal performance is analyzed by a new method in which zero, one, and three-dimensional models are used in combination. A typical UHS pond has an irregular shape covering 20 hectares at an average depth of 4 m with a heavy thermal load of 40 MWt (megawatts thermal) per hectare. The resulting flow field can be one, two or three dimensional. A three-dimensional numerical model (Paul 1983) is modified and used to determine the effective dimensionality of the pond under accident conditions. The model's surface heat transfer formulas and its predictions of thermal hydraulics are verified using laboratory and field data. The Paul model shows that, unlike normal cooling ponds, a typical UHS pond is vertically-mixed with only a longitudinal temperature variation. Buoyancy-driven circulations, strong discharge-to-intake flow, and rapid surface heat removal break down the usual vertical stratification. Predictions of the one-dimensional MITEMP model are shown to agree with Paul model predictions for a typical UHS pond at the Catawba Nuclear Power Plant

  3. How to get cool in the heat: comparing analytic models of hot, cold, and cooling gas in haloes and galaxies with EAGLE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Adam R. H.; Lagos, Claudia del P.; Contreras, Sergio; Croton, Darren J.; Padilla, Nelson D.; Schaller, Matthieu; Schaye, Joop; Theuns, Tom

    2017-05-01

    We use the hydrodynamic, cosmological EAGLE simulations to investigate how the hot gas in haloes condenses to form and grow galaxies. We select haloes from the simulations that are actively cooling and study the temperature, distribution and metallicity of their hot, cold and transitioning 'cooling' gas, placing these in the context of semi-analytic models. Our selection criteria lead us to focus on Milky Way-like haloes. We find that the hot-gas density profiles of the haloes form a progressively stronger core over time, the nature of which can be captured by a β profile that has a simple dependence on redshift. In contrast, the hot gas that will cool over a time-step is broadly consistent with a singular isothermal sphere. We find that cooling gas carries a few times the specific angular momentum of the halo and is offset in spin direction from the rest of the hot gas. The gas loses ˜60 per cent of its specific angular momentum during the cooling process, generally remaining greater than that of the halo, and it precesses to become aligned with the cold gas already in the disc. We find tentative evidence that angular-momentum losses are slightly larger when gas cools on to dispersion-supported galaxies. We show that an exponential surface density profile for gas arriving on a disc remains a reasonable approximation, but a cusp containing ˜20 per cent of the mass is always present, and disc scale radii are larger than predicted by a vanilla Fall & Efstathiou model. These scale radii are still closely correlated with the halo spin parameter, for which we suggest an updated prescription for galaxy formation models.

  4. Turbine Internal and Film Cooling Modeling For 3D Navier-Stokes Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWitt, Kenneth; Garg Vijay; Ameri, Ali

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this research project is to make use of NASA Glenn on-site computational facilities in order to develop, validate and apply aerodynamic, heat transfer, and turbine cooling models for use in advanced 3D Navier-Stokes Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes such as the Glenn-" code. Specific areas of effort include: Application of the Glenn-HT code to specific configurations made available under Turbine Based Combined Cycle (TBCC), and Ultra Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) projects. Validating the use of a multi-block code for the time accurate computation of the detailed flow and heat transfer of cooled turbine airfoils. The goal of the current research is to improve the predictive ability of the Glenn-HT code. This will enable one to design more efficient turbine components for both aviation and power generation. The models will be tested against specific configurations provided by NASA Glenn.

  5. Homogenization Modeling for Mechanical Properties of Composite Conductor With Cooling Channel

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sun, We

    2002-01-01

    .... A composite cylinder assembly model was developed in the level 1 homogenization for metallic core with a cooling channel, in which the cooling channel was analogized as a fiber void with null material properties...

  6. Dynamic thermal characteristics of heat pipe via segmented thermal resistance model for electric vehicle battery cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Feifei; Lan, Fengchong; Chen, Jiqing

    2016-07-01

    Heat pipe cooling for battery thermal management systems (BTMSs) in electric vehicles (EVs) is growing due to its advantages of high cooling efficiency, compact structure and flexible geometry. Considering the transient conduction, phase change and uncertain thermal conditions in a heat pipe, it is challenging to obtain the dynamic thermal characteristics accurately in such complex heat and mass transfer process. In this paper, a ;segmented; thermal resistance model of a heat pipe is proposed based on thermal circuit method. The equivalent conductivities of different segments, viz. the evaporator and condenser of pipe, are used to determine their own thermal parameters and conditions integrated into the thermal model of battery for a complete three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. The proposed ;segmented; model shows more precise than the ;non-segmented; model by the comparison of simulated and experimental temperature distribution and variation of an ultra-thin micro heat pipe (UMHP) battery pack, and has less calculation error to obtain dynamic thermal behavior for exact thermal design, management and control of heat pipe BTMSs. Using the ;segmented; model, the cooling effect of the UMHP pack with different natural/forced convection and arrangements is predicted, and the results correspond well to the tests.

  7. Preliminary tests of a model of cooling-pond thermal performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hicks, B.B.; Wesely, M.L.; Wilczek, J.

    1975-01-01

    Experiments performed during recent years at the cooling pond complex at the Dresden nuclear power station have been designed to improve our understanding of the fundamental properties of thermal exchange at a warm-water surface. To a considerable extent, the field studies have been successful in that they have shown that modern micrometeorological techniques can be successfully applied to the demanding circumstances of an industrial cooling lake at temperature of at least 40 0 C. The intent of these studies has been to create a set of parameterization schemes good enough to allow simulation of the performance of the Dresden cooling lake without adjustment of numerical constants. An obvious extension of these studies, and one of the goals of the cooling-pond research program as presently stated, is to obtain an accurate numerical simulation of thermal performance of ponds with use of the improved formulations that have resulted from the experimental work at the Dresden lake. The computer model is divided into two sections and can be used to test the sensitivity of predicted performance to variations in procedures for determining the thermal transfer from the surface

  8. Loss of spent fuel pool cooling PRA: Model and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siu, N.; Khericha, S.; Conroy, S.; Beck, S.; Blackman, H.

    1996-09-01

    This letter report documents models for quantifying the likelihood of loss of spent fuel pool cooling; models for identifying post-boiling scenarios that lead to core damage; qualitative and quantitative results generated for a selected plant that account for plant design and operational practices; a comparison of these results and those generated from earlier studies; and a review of available data on spent fuel pool accidents. The results of this study show that for a representative two-unit boiling water reactor, the annual probability of spent fuel pool boiling is 5 {times} 10{sup {minus}5} and the annual probability of flooding associated with loss of spent fuel pool cooling scenarios is 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}3}. Qualitative arguments are provided to show that the likelihood of core damage due to spent fuel pool boiling accidents is low for most US commercial nuclear power plants. It is also shown that, depending on the design characteristics of a given plant, the likelihood of either: (a) core damage due to spent fuel pool-associated flooding, or (b) spent fuel damage due to pool dryout, may not be negligible.

  9. Marginally fast cooling synchrotron models for prompt GRBs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniamini, Paz; Duran, Rodolfo Barniol; Giannios, Dimitrios

    2018-02-01

    Previous studies have considered synchrotron as the emission mechanism for prompt Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs). These works have shown that the electrons must cool on a timescale comparable to the dynamic time at the source in order to satisfy spectral constraints while maintaining high radiative efficiency. We focus on conditions where synchrotron cooling is balanced by a continuous source of heating, and in which these constraints are naturally satisfied. Assuming that a majority of the electrons in the emitting region are contributing to the observed peak, we find that the energy per electron has to be E ≳ 20 GeV and that the Lorentz factor of the emitting material has to be very large 103 ≲ Γem ≲ 104, well in excess of the bulk Lorentz factor of the jet inferred from GRB afterglows. A number of independent constraints then indicate that the emitters must be moving relativistically, with Γ΄ ≈ 10, relative to the bulk frame of the jet and that the jet must be highly magnetized upstream of the emission region, σup ≳ 30. The emission radius is also strongly constrained in this model to R ≳ 1016cm. These values are consistent with magnetic jet models where the dissipation is driven by magnetic reconnection that takes place far away from the base of the jet.

  10. Loss of spent fuel pool cooling PRA: Model and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, N.; Khericha, S.; Conroy, S.; Beck, S.; Blackman, H.

    1996-09-01

    This letter report documents models for quantifying the likelihood of loss of spent fuel pool cooling; models for identifying post-boiling scenarios that lead to core damage; qualitative and quantitative results generated for a selected plant that account for plant design and operational practices; a comparison of these results and those generated from earlier studies; and a review of available data on spent fuel pool accidents. The results of this study show that for a representative two-unit boiling water reactor, the annual probability of spent fuel pool boiling is 5 x 10 -5 and the annual probability of flooding associated with loss of spent fuel pool cooling scenarios is 1 x 10 -3 . Qualitative arguments are provided to show that the likelihood of core damage due to spent fuel pool boiling accidents is low for most US commercial nuclear power plants. It is also shown that, depending on the design characteristics of a given plant, the likelihood of either: (a) core damage due to spent fuel pool-associated flooding, or (b) spent fuel damage due to pool dryout, may not be negligible

  11. MODELING THE AMBIENT CONDITION EFFECTS OF AN AIR-COOLED NATURAL CIRCULATION SYSTEM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Rui; Lisowski, Darius D.; Bucknor, Matthew; Kraus, Adam R.; Lv, Qiuping

    2017-07-02

    The Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) is a passive safety concept under consideration for the overall safety strategy of advanced reactors such as the High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR). One such variant, air-cooled RCCS, uses natural convection to drive the flow of air from outside the reactor building to remove decay heat during normal operation and accident scenarios. The Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) at Argonne National Laboratory (“Argonne”) is a half-scale model of the primary features of one conceptual air-cooled RCCS design. The facility was constructed to carry out highly instrumented experiments to study the performance of the RCCS concept for reactor decay heat removal that relies on natural convection cooling. Parallel modeling and simulation efforts were performed to support the design, operation, and analysis of the natural convection system. Throughout the testing program, strong influences of ambient conditions were observed in the experimental data when baseline tests were repeated under the same test procedures. Thus, significant analysis efforts were devoted to gaining a better understanding of these influences and the subsequent response of the NSTF to ambient conditions. It was determined that air humidity had negligible impacts on NSTF system performance and therefore did not warrant consideration in the models. However, temperature differences between the building exterior and interior air, along with the outside wind speed, were shown to be dominant factors. Combining the stack and wind effects together, an empirical model was developed based on theoretical considerations and using experimental data to correlate zero-power system flow rates with ambient meteorological conditions. Some coefficients in the model were obtained based on best fitting the experimental data. The predictive capability of the empirical model was demonstrated by applying it to the new set of experimental data. The

  12. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation......, then rival strategies can still be compared based on repeated bootstraps of the same data. Often, however, the overall performance of rival strategies is similar and it is thus difficult to decide for one model. Here, we investigate the variability of the prediction models that results when the same...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  13. Analytical model of transient thermal effect on convectional cooled ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. The transient analytical solutions of temperature distribution, stress, strain and optical path difference in convectional cooled end-pumped laser rod are derived. The results are compared with other works and good agreements are found. The effects of increasing the edge cooling and face cooling are studied.

  14. Analytical model of transient thermal effect on convectional cooled ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    It is also found that increasing this type of cooling significantly reduces the time required to reach the thermal equilibrium with a slight increase in the max. tensile hoop stress that can be reached as the cooling increases. On the other hand, increase in face cooling reduces the response time, optical path difference and the ...

  15. Critical percolation in the slow cooling of the bi-dimensional ferromagnetic Ising model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricateau, Hugo; Cugliandolo, Leticia F.; Picco, Marco

    2018-01-01

    We study, with numerical methods, the fractal properties of the domain walls found in slow quenches of the kinetic Ising model to its critical temperature. We show that the equilibrium interfaces in the disordered phase have critical percolation fractal dimension over a wide range of length scales. We confirm that the system falls out of equilibrium at a temperature that depends on the cooling rate as predicted by the Kibble-Zurek argument and we prove that the dynamic growing length once the cooling reaches the critical point satisfies the same scaling. We determine the dynamic scaling properties of the interface winding angle variance and we show that the crossover between critical Ising and critical percolation properties is determined by the growing length reached when the system fell out of equilibrium.

  16. Mathematical model of an integrated circuit cooling through cylindrical rods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beltrán-Prieto Luis Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the main challenges in integrated circuits development is to propose alternatives to handle the extreme heat generated by high frequency of electrons moving in a reduced space that cause overheating and reduce the lifespan of the device. The use of cooling fins offers an alternative to enhance the heat transfer using combined a conduction-convection systems. Mathematical model of such process is important for parametric design and also to gain information about temperature distribution along the surface of the transistor. In this paper, we aim to obtain the equations for heat transfer along the chip and the fin by performing energy balance and heat transfer by conduction from the chip to the rod, followed by dissipation to the surrounding by convection. Newton's law of cooling and Fourier law were used to obtain the equations that describe the profile temperature in the rod and the surface of the chip. Ordinary differential equations were obtained and the respective analytical solutions were derived after consideration of boundary conditions. The temperature along the rod decreased considerably from the initial temperature (in contatct with the chip surface. This indicates the benefit of using a cilindrical rod to distribute the heat generated in the chip.

  17. Cooling tower and plume modeling for satellite remote sensing applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powers, B.J.

    1995-05-01

    It is often useful in nonproliferation studies to be able to remotely estimate the power generated by a power plant. Such information is indirectly available through an examination of the power dissipated by the plant. Power dissipation is generally accomplished either by transferring the excess heat generated into the atmosphere or into bodies of water. It is the former method with which we are exclusively concerned in this report. We discuss in this report the difficulties associated with such a task. In particular, we primarily address the remote detection of the temperature associated with the condensed water plume emitted from the cooling tower. We find that the effective emissivity of the plume is of fundamental importance for this task. Having examined the dependence of the plume emissivity in several IR bands and with varying liquid water content and droplet size distributions, we conclude that the plume emissivity, and consequently the plume brightness temperature, is dependent upon not only the liquid water content and band, but also upon the droplet size distribution. Finally, we discuss models dependent upon a detailed point-by-point description of the hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of the plume dynamics and those based upon spatially integrated models. We describe in detail a new integral model, the LANL Plume Model, which accounts for the evolution of the droplet size distribution. Some typical results obtained from this model are discussed.

  18. Film Cooled Recession of SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites: Test Development, CFD Modeling and Experimental Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dongming; Sakowski, Barbara A.; Fisher, Caleb

    2014-01-01

    SiCSiC ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) systems will play a crucial role in next generation turbine engines for hot-section component applications because of their ability to significantly increase engine operating temperatures, reduce engine weight and cooling requirements. However, the environmental stability of Si-based ceramics in high pressure, high velocity turbine engine combustion environment is of major concern. The water vapor containing combustion gas leads to accelerated oxidation and corrosion of the SiC based ceramics due to the water vapor reactions with silica (SiO2) scales forming non-protective volatile hydroxide species, resulting in recession of the ceramic components. Although environmental barrier coatings are being developed to help protect the CMC components, there is a need to better understand the fundamental recession behavior of in more realistic cooled engine component environments.In this paper, we describe a comprehensive film cooled high pressure burner rig based testing approach, by using standardized film cooled SiCSiC disc test specimen configurations. The SiCSiC specimens were designed for implementing the burner rig testing in turbine engine relevant combustion environments, obtaining generic film cooled recession rate data under the combustion water vapor conditions, and helping developing the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) film cooled models and performing model validation. Factors affecting the film cooled recession such as temperature, water vapor concentration, combustion gas velocity, and pressure are particularly investigated and modeled, and compared with impingement cooling only recession data in similar combustion flow environments. The experimental and modeling work will help predict the SiCSiC CMC recession behavior, and developing durable CMC systems in complex turbine engine operating conditions.

  19. An analytical model for climatic predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1990-12-01

    A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs

  20. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  1. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... the performance of HIRLAM in particular with respect to wind predictions. To estimate the performance of the model two spatial resolutions (0,5 Deg. and 0.2 Deg.) and different sets of HIRLAM variables were used to predict wind speed and energy production. The predictions of energy production for the wind farms...... are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production...

  2. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... Linear MPC. 1. Uses linear model: ˙x = Ax + Bu. 2. Quadratic cost function: F = xT Qx + uT Ru. 3. Linear constraints: Hx + Gu < 0. 4. Quadratic program. Nonlinear MPC. 1. Nonlinear model: ˙x = f(x, u). 2. Cost function can be nonquadratic: F = (x, u). 3. Nonlinear constraints: h(x, u) < 0. 4. Nonlinear program.

  3. Analysis of turbulence models for thermohydraulic calculations of helium cooled fusion reactor components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arbeiter, F. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH, Postfach 3640, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Gordeev, S. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH, Postfach 3640, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany)]. E-mail: gordeev@irs.fzk.de; Heinzel, V. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH, Postfach 3640, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Slobodtchouk, V. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH, Postfach 3640, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2006-02-15

    The aim of the present work is to choose an optimal use of CFD codes for thermohydraulic calculation of the helium cooled fusion reactor components, such as divertor module, test blanket module and International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) test modules. In spite of common features (intense heat flux, nuclear heating of the structure, helium-cooling), all these components have different boundary conditions, such as helium temperature, pressure and heating rate and different geometries. It is the reason for the appearance of some effects in the flow influencing significantly the heat transfer. A number of turbulence models offered by the commercial STAR-CD code were tested on the experiments carried out in the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (FZK) and on the experimental data from the scientific publications. Results of different turbulence models are compared and analysed. For geometrically simple channel flows with significant gas property variation low-Re number k-{epsilon} models with damping functions give more accurate results and are more appropriate for the conditions of the IFMIF HFTM. The heat transfer in regions with flow impingement is well predicted by turbulence models, which include different limiters in the turbulence production. Most reliable turbulence models were chosen for the thermohydraulic analysis.

  4. Modeling the methane hydrate formation in an aqueous film submitted to steady cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avendano-Gomez, J.R. [ESIQIE, Laboratorio de Ingenieria Quimica Ambiental, Mexico (Mexico). Inst. Politecnico Nacional; Garcia-Sanchez, F. [Laboratorio de Termodinamica, Mexico (Mexico). Inst. Mexicano del Petroleo; Gurrola, D.V. [UPIBI, Laboratorio de Diseno de Plantas, Mexico (Mexico). Inst. Politecnico Nacional

    2008-07-01

    Gas hydrates, or clathrate hydrates, are ice-like compounds that results from the kinetic process of crystallization of an aqueous solution supersaturated with a dissolved gas. This paper presented a model that took into account two factors involved in the hydrate crystallization, notably the stochastic nature of crystallization that causes sub-cooling and the heat resulting from the exothermic enthalpy of hydrate formation. The purpose of this study was to model the thermal evolution inside a hydrate forming system which was submitted to an imposed steady cooling. The study system was a cylindrical thin film of aqueous solution at 19 Mpa. The study involved using methane as the hydrate forming molecule. It was assumed that methane was homogeneously dissolved in the aqueous phase. Ethane hydrate was formed through a kinetic process of nucleation and crystallization. In order to predict the onset time of nucleation, the induction time needed to be considered. This paper discussed the probability of nucleation as well as the estimation of the rate of nucleation. It also presented the mathematical model and boundary conditions. These included assumptions and derivation of the model; boundary conditions; initial conditions; and numerical solution of the model equation. It was concluded that the heat source must be considered when investigating crystallization effects. 34 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  5. Analytical Modelling of the Effects of Different Gas Turbine Cooling Techniques on Engine Performance =

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uysal, Selcuk Can

    In this research, MATLAB SimulinkRTM was used to develop a cooled engine model for industrial gas turbines and aero-engines. The model consists of uncooled on-design, mean-line turbomachinery design and a cooled off-design analysis in order to evaluate the engine performance parameters by using operating conditions, polytropic efficiencies, material information and cooling system details. The cooling analysis algorithm involves a 2nd law analysis to calculate losses from the cooling technique applied. The model is used in a sensitivity analysis that evaluates the impacts of variations in metal Biot number, thermal barrier coating Biot number, film cooling effectiveness, internal cooling effectiveness and maximum allowable blade temperature on main engine performance parameters of aero and industrial gas turbine engines. The model is subsequently used to analyze the relative performance impact of employing Anti-Vortex Film Cooling holes (AVH) by means of data obtained for these holes by Detached Eddy Simulation-CFD Techniques that are valid for engine-like turbulence intensity conditions. Cooled blade configurations with AVH and other different external cooling techniques were used in a performance comparison study. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

  6. Modification and application of water film model in COCOSYS for PWR's passive containment cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Xi; Cheng, Xu

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Water film model in COCOSYS has been modified by considering film breakup. • Shear stress on film surface created by countercurrent flow has been considered. • Formation and development of rivulets have been taken into account. • Modified model has been applied for passive containment cooling system. • The modified water film model has optimized the simulation results. - Abstract: In this paper the physical model describing water film behaviors in German containment code system COCOSYS has been modified by taking into consideration the film breakup and subsequent phenomena as well as the effect of film interfacial shear stress created by countercurrent air flow. The modified model has extended its capability to predict particular water film behaviors including breakup at a critical film thickness based on minimum total energy criterion, the formation of rivulets according to total energy equilibrium as well as subsequent performance of rivulets according to several assumptions and observations from experiments. Furthermore, the modification considers also the change of velocity distribution on the cross section of film/rivulets due to shear stress. Based on the geometry of AP1000 and Generic Containment, simulations predicting containment pressure variation during accidents with operation of passive containment cooling system have been carried out. With the new model, considerably larger peak pressures are observed by comparing with those predicted with original water film model within a certain range of water film flow rate. Sensitivity analyses also point out that contact angle between water rivulets and steel substrate plays a significant role in the film cooling

  7. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  8. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Numerical modeling and validation of helium jet impingement cooling of high heat flux divertor components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koncar, Bostjan; Simonovski, Igor; Norajitra, Prachai

    2009-01-01

    Numerical analyses of jet impingement cooling presented in this paper were performed as a part of helium-cooled divertor studies for post-ITER generation of fusion reactors. The cooling ability of divertor cooled by multiple helium jets was analysed. Thermal-hydraulic characteristics and temperature distributions in the solid structures were predicted for the reference geometry of one cooling finger. To assess numerical errors, different meshes (hexagonal, tetra, tetra-prism) and discretisation schemes were used. The temperatures in the solid structures decrease with finer mesh and higher order discretisation and converge towards finite values. Numerical simulations were validated against high heat flux experiments, performed at Efremov Institute, St. Petersburg. The predicted design parameters show reasonable agreement with measured data. The calculated maximum thimble temperature was below the tile-thimble brazing temperature, indicating good heat removal capability of reference divertor design. (author)

  10. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  11. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  12. Magnetic reconnection in the low solar chromosphere with a more realistic radiative cooling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Lei; Lukin, Vyacheslav S.; Murphy, Nicholas A.; Lin, Jun

    2018-04-01

    Magnetic reconnection is the most likely mechanism responsible for the high temperature events that are observed in strongly magnetized locations around the temperature minimum in the low solar chromosphere. This work improves upon our previous work [Ni et al., Astrophys. J. 852, 95 (2018)] by using a more realistic radiative cooling model computed from the OPACITY project and the CHIANTI database. We find that the rate of ionization of the neutral component of the plasma is still faster than recombination within the current sheet region. For low β plasmas, the ionized and neutral fluid flows are well-coupled throughout the reconnection region resembling the single-fluid Sweet-Parker model dynamics. Decoupling of the ion and neutral inflows appears in the higher β case with β0=1.46 , which leads to a reconnection rate about three times faster than the rate predicted by the Sweet-Parker model. In all cases, the plasma temperature increases with time inside the current sheet, and the maximum value is above 2 ×104 K when the reconnection magnetic field strength is greater than 500 G. While the more realistic radiative cooling model does not result in qualitative changes of the characteristics of magnetic reconnection, it is necessary for studying the variations of the plasma temperature and ionization fraction inside current sheets in strongly magnetized regions of the low solar atmosphere. It is also important for studying energy conversion during the magnetic reconnection process when the hydrogen-dominated plasma approaches full ionization.

  13. Prediction of radionuclide accumulation in main ecosystem components of NPP cooling water reservoirs and assessment of acceptable radionuclide disposal into water reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egorov, Yu.A.; Kazakov, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The problems of prediction of radionuclide accumulation in ecosystem main components of NPP cooling water-reservoirs (CWR) and assessment of radionuclide acceptable disposal into water reservoir are considered. Two models are nessecary for the calculation technique: model of radionuclide migration and accumulation in CWR ecosystem components and calculation model of population dose commitment due to water consumption (at the public health approach to the normalization of the NPP radioactive effect on CWC) or calculation model of dose commitment on hydrocenosis components (at the ecological approach to the normalization). Analytical calculations and numerical calculation results in the model CWC, located in the USSR middle region, are presented

  14. Modelling the Cooling of Coffee: Insights from a Preliminary Study in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widjaja, Wanty

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses an attempt to examine pre-service teachers' mathematical modelling skills. A modelling project investigating relationships between temperature and time in the process of cooling of coffee was chosen. The analysis was based on group written reports of the cooling of coffee project and observation of classroom discussion.…

  15. Model approach for simulating the thermodynamic behavior of the MFTF cryogenic cooling systems - a status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutton, S.B.; Stein, W.; Reitter, T.A.; Hindmarsh, A.C.

    1983-01-01

    A numerical model for calculating the thermodynamic behavior of the MFTF-B cryogenic cooling system is described. Nine component types are discussed with governing equations given. The algorithm for solving the coupled set of algebraic and ordinary differential equations is described. The model and its application to the MFTF-B cryogenic cooling system has not been possible due to lack of funding

  16. Predictions models with neural nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimír Konečný

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The contribution is oriented to basic problem trends solution of economic pointers, using neural networks. Problems include choice of the suitable model and consequently configuration of neural nets, choice computational function of neurons and the way prediction learning. The contribution contains two basic models that use structure of multilayer neural nets and way of determination their configuration. It is postulate a simple rule for teaching period of neural net, to get most credible prediction.Experiments are executed with really data evolution of exchange rate Kč/Euro. The main reason of choice this time series is their availability for sufficient long period. In carry out of experiments the both given basic kind of prediction models with most frequent use functions of neurons are verified. Achieve prediction results are presented as in numerical and so in graphical forms.

  17. Study of laser cooling in deep optical lattice: two-level quantum model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prudnikov, O. N.; Il’enkov, R. Ya.; Taichenachev, A. V.; Yudin, V. I.; Rasel, E. M.

    2018-01-01

    We study a possibility of laser cooling of 24Mg atoms in deep optical lattice formed by intense off-resonant laser field in a presence of cooling field resonant to narrow (3s3s) 1 S 0 → (3s3p)3 P 1 (λ = 457 nm) optical transition. For description of laser cooling with taking into account quantum recoil effects we consider two quantum models. The first one is based on direct numerical solution of quantum kinetic equation for atom density matrix and the second one is simplified model based on decomposition of atom density matrix over vibration states in the lattice wells. We search cooling field intensity and detuning for minimum cooling energy and fast laser cooling.

  18. CFD Modeling of Sodium-Oxide Deposition in Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Compact Heat Exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tatli, Emre; Ferroni, Paolo; Mazzoccoli, Jason

    2015-09-02

    The possible use of compact heat exchangers (HXs) in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFR) employing a Brayton cycle is promising due to their high power density and resulting small volume in comparison with conventional shell-and-tube HXs. However, the small diameter of their channels makes them more susceptible to plugging due to Na2O deposition during accident conditions. Although cold traps are designed to reduce oxygen impurity levels in the sodium coolant, their failure, in conjunction with accidental air ingress into the sodium boundary, could result in coolant oxygen levels that are above the saturation limit in the cooler parts of the HX channels. This can result in Na2O crystallization and the formation of solid deposits on cooled channel surfaces, limiting or even blocking coolant flow. The development of analysis tools capable of modeling the formation of these deposits in the presence of sodium flow will allow designers of SFRs to properly size the HX channels so that, in the scenario mentioned above, the reactor operator has sufficient time to detect and react to the affected HX. Until now, analytical methodologies to predict the formation of these deposits have been developed, but never implemented in a high-fidelity computational tool suited to modern reactor design techniques. This paper summarizes the challenges and the current status in the development of a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methodology to predict deposit formation, with particular emphasis on sensitivity studies on some parameters affecting deposition.

  19. Development of an integrated model for heat transfer and dynamic growth of Clostridium perfringens during the cooling of cooked boneless ham.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amézquita, A; Weller, C L; Wang, L; Thippareddi, H; Burson, D E

    2005-05-25

    Numerous small meat processors in the United States have difficulties complying with the stabilization performance standards for preventing growth of Clostridium perfringens by 1 log10 cycle during cooling of ready-to-eat (RTE) products. These standards were established by the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of the US Department of Agriculture in 1999. In recent years, several attempts have been made to develop predictive models for growth of C. perfringens within the range of cooling temperatures included in the FSIS standards. Those studies mainly focused on microbiological aspects, using hypothesized cooling rates. Conversely, studies dealing with heat transfer models to predict cooling rates in meat products do not address microbial growth. Integration of heat transfer relationships with C. perfringens growth relationships during cooling of meat products has been very limited. Therefore, a computer simulation scheme was developed to analyze heat transfer phenomena and temperature-dependent C. perfringens growth during cooling of cooked boneless cured ham. The temperature history of ham was predicted using a finite element heat diffusion model. Validation of heat transfer predictions used experimental data collected in commercial meat-processing facilities. For C. perfringens growth, a dynamic model was developed using Baranyi's nonautonomous differential equation. The bacterium's growth model was integrated into the computer program using predicted temperature histories as input values. For cooling cooked hams from 66.6 degrees C to 4.4 degrees C using forced air, the maximum deviation between predicted and experimental core temperature data was 2.54 degrees C. Predicted C. perfringens growth curves obtained from dynamic modeling showed good agreement with validated results for three different cooling scenarios. Mean absolute values of relative errors were below 6%, and deviations between predicted and experimental cell counts were within 0.37 log10

  20. Modeling the performance of water- and liquid-gallium-cooled x-ray optical components - a comparison with experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chrzas, J.; Khounsary, A.M.; Mills, D.M.; Viccaro, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    Thermal and structural analyses of a water- or liquid-gallium-cooled silicon crystal X-ray monochromator subjected to high heat loads have been carried out using a finite-element method. Rocking curves were produced from the computed strain distributions in the crystal and compared with experimentally measured rocking curves. Good agreement between the general width and shape of the calculated and measured rocking curve profiles was obtained. This agreement provides a foundation for extending our modeling to the prediction of X-ray optical component performance with more-complex cooling schemes. Such elaborate cooling techniques may be required for the increased power load that will be produced by insertion devices in the next generation of low-emittance storage ring sources, such as the Advanced Photon Source (APS) to be constructed at Argonne National Laboratory

  1. Mathematical model of drift deposition from a bifurcated cooling tower plume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, N.C.J.; Jung, L.

    1978-01-01

    Cooling tower drift deposition modeling has been extended by including centrifugal force induced through plume bifurcation in a crosswind as a mechanism for drift droplet removal from the plume. The model, in its current state of development, is capable of predicting the trajectory of a single droplet from the stage of strong interaction with the vortex field soon after droplet emission at the tower top through the stage of droplet evaporation in an unsaturated atmosphere after droplet breakaway from the plume. The computer program developed from the mathematical formulation has been used to explore the dependency of the droplet trajectory on droplet size, vortex strength, point of droplet emission, drag coefficient, droplet efflux speed, and ambient conditions. A specific application to drift from a mechanical-draft cooling tower (for a wind speed twice the efflux speed, a relative humidity of 70 per cent, and an initial droplet radius of 100 μm) showed the droplet to follow a helical trajectory within the plume, with breakaway occurring at 2.5 tower diameters downwind and ground impact of the droplet (reduced through evaporation to 55 μm radius) at 11 tower diameters

  2. Modeling and performance of the MHTGR [Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor] reactor cavity cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conklin, J.C.

    1990-04-01

    The Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) of the Modular High- Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) proposed by the U.S. Department of Energy is designed to remove the nuclear afterheat passively in the event that neither the heat transport system nor the shutdown cooling circulator subsystem is available. A computer dynamic simulation for the physical and mathematical modeling of and RCCS is described here. Two conclusions can be made form computations performed under the assumption of a uniform reactor vessel temperature. First, the heat transferred across the annulus from the reactor vessel and then to ambient conditions is very dependent on the surface emissivities of the reactor vessel and RCCS panels. These emissivities should be periodically checked to ensure the safety function of the RCCS. Second, the heat transfer from the reactor vessel is reduced by a maximum of 10% by the presence of steam at 1 atm in the reactor cavity annulus for an assumed constant in the transmission of radiant energy across the annulus can be expected to result in an increase in the reactor vessel temperature for the MHTGR. Further investigation of participating radiation media, including small particles, in the reactor cavity annulus is warranted. 26 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab

  3. A Numerical Analysis of Heat Transfer and Effectiveness on Film Cooled Turbine Blade Tip Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ameri, A. A.; Rigby, D. L.

    1999-01-01

    A computational study has been performed to predict the distribution of convective heat transfer coefficient on a simulated blade tip with cooling holes. The purpose of the examination was to assess the ability of a three-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver to predict the rate of tip heat transfer and the distribution of cooling effectiveness. To this end, the simulation of tip clearance flow with blowing of Kim and Metzger was used. The agreement of the computed effectiveness with the data was quite good. The agreement with the heat transfer coefficient was not as good but improved away from the cooling holes. Numerical flow visualization showed that the uniformity of wetting of the surface by the film cooling jet is helped by the reverse flow due to edge separation of the main flow.

  4. What do saliency models predict?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Kathryn; Guo, Fei; Zhang, Sheng; Eckstein, Miguel P.

    2014-01-01

    Saliency models have been frequently used to predict eye movements made during image viewing without a specified task (free viewing). Use of a single image set to systematically compare free viewing to other tasks has never been performed. We investigated the effect of task differences on the ability of three models of saliency to predict the performance of humans viewing a novel database of 800 natural images. We introduced a novel task where 100 observers made explicit perceptual judgments about the most salient image region. Other groups of observers performed a free viewing task, saliency search task, or cued object search task. Behavior on the popular free viewing task was not best predicted by standard saliency models. Instead, the models most accurately predicted the explicit saliency selections and eye movements made while performing saliency judgments. Observers' fixations varied similarly across images for the saliency and free viewing tasks, suggesting that these two tasks are related. The variability of observers' eye movements was modulated by the task (lowest for the object search task and greatest for the free viewing and saliency search tasks) as well as the clutter content of the images. Eye movement variability in saliency search and free viewing might be also limited by inherent variation of what observers consider salient. Our results contribute to understanding the tasks and behavioral measures for which saliency models are best suited as predictors of human behavior, the relationship across various perceptual tasks, and the factors contributing to observer variability in fixational eye movements. PMID:24618107

  5. Comparison between field data and ultimate heat-sink cooling-pond and spray-pond models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Codell, R.

    1982-09-01

    Two previously published reports, NUREG-0693 and NUREG-0733, presented models and methods by which ultimate heat sink cooling ponds and spray ponds used for safety-related water supplies in nuclear power plants could be analyzed for design-basis conditions of heat load and meteorology. These models were only partially verified with field data. The present report compares the NRC models to data collected for NRC by Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories on the performance of small geothermally heated ponds and spray ponds. These comparisons generally support the conclusion that the NRC models are useful tools in predicting ultimate heat sink performance

  6. mathematical model for direct evaporative space cooling systems

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    of the sensible heat of the air is transferred to the water and becomes latent heat by evaporating some of the water. The latent heat follows the water vapour and diffuses into the air. In a DEC (direct evaporative cooling), the heat and mass transferred between air and water decreases the air dry bulb temperature (DBT) and ...

  7. Theoretical modelling, experimental studies and clinical simulations of urethral cooling catheters for use during prostate thermal therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, Sean R H; Sherar, Michael D

    2003-01-01

    Urethral cooling catheters are used to prevent thermal damage to the urethra during thermal therapy of the prostate. Quantification of a catheter's heat transfer characteristics is necessary for prediction of the catheter's influence on the temperature and thermal dose distribution in periurethral tissue. Two cooling catheters with different designs were examined: the Dornier Urowave catheter and a prototype device from BSD Medical Corp. A convection coefficient, h, was used to characterize the cooling ability of each catheter. The value of the convection coefficient (h = 330 W m -2 deg C -1 for the Dornier catheter, h = 160 W m -2 deg C -1 for the BSD device) was obtained by comparing temperatures measured in a tissue-equivalent phantom material to temperatures predicted by a finite element method simulation of the phantom experiments. The coefficient was found to be insensitive to the rate of coolant flow inside the catheter between 40 and 120 ml min -1 . The convection coefficient method for modelling urethral catheters was incorporated into simulations of microwave heating of the prostate. Results from these simulations indicate that the Dornier device is significantly more effective than the BSD catheter at cooling the tissue surrounding the urethra

  8. Numerical prediction on turbulent heat transfer of a spacer ribbed fuel rod for high temperature gas-cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takase, Kazuyuki

    1994-11-01

    The turbulent heat transfer of a fuel rod with three-dimensional trapezoidal spacer ribs for high temperature gas-cooled reactors was analyzed numerically using the k-ε turbulence model, and investigated experimentally using a simulated fuel rod under the helium gas condition of a maximum outlet temperature of 1000degC and pressure of 4MPa. From the experimental results, it found that the turbulent heat transfer coefficients of the fuel rod were 18 to 80% higher than those of a concentric smooth annulus at a region of Reynolds number exceeding 2000. On the other hand, the predicted average Nusselt number of the fuel rod agreed well with the heat transfer correlation obtained from the experimental data within a relative error of 10% with Reynolds number of more than 5000. It was verified that the numerical analysis results had sufficient accuracy. Furthermore, the numerical prediction could clarify quantitatively the effects of the heat transfer augmentation by the spacer rib and the axial velocity increase due to a reduction in the annular channel cross-section. (author)

  9. Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Passively Cooled Small Modular Reactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arda, Samet Egemen

    A nonlinear dynamic model for a passively cooled small modular reactor (SMR) is developed. The nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) model includes representations for reactor core, steam generator, pressurizer, hot leg riser and downcomer. The reactor core is modeled with the combination of: (1) neutronics, using point kinetics equations for reactor power and a single combined neutron group, and (2) thermal-hydraulics, describing the heat transfer from fuel to coolant by an overall heat transfer resistance and single-phase natural circulation. For the helical-coil once-through steam generator, a single tube depiction with time-varying boundaries and three regions, i.e., subcooled, boiling, and superheated, is adopted. The pressurizer model is developed based upon the conservation of fluid mass, volume, and energy. Hot leg riser and downcomer are treated as first-order lags. The NSSS model is incorporated with a turbine model which permits observing the power with given steam flow, pressure, and enthalpy as input. The overall nonlinear system is implemented in the Simulink dynamic environment. Simulations for typical perturbations, e.g., control rod withdrawal and increase in steam demand, are run. A detailed analysis of the results show that the steady-state values for full power are in good agreement with design data and the model is capable of predicting the dynamics of the SMR. Finally, steady-state control programs for reactor power and pressurizer pressure are also implemented and their effect on the important system variables are discussed.

  10. Theoretical modelling and experimental study of air thermal conditioning process of a heat pump assisted solid desiccant cooling system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nie, Jinzhe; Li, Zan; Hu, Wenju

    2017-01-01

    purification aimed at improving indoor air quality and reducing building energy consumption. The heat and moisture transfer in adsorption desiccant rotor was theoretical modelled with one-dimensional partial differential equations. The theoretical model was validated with experimental measurements......Taking the integrated gaseous contaminants and moisture adsorption potential of desiccant material, a new heat pump assisted solid desiccant cooling system (HP-SDC) was proposed based on the combination of desiccant rotor with heat pump. The HP-SDC was designed for dehumidification, cooling and air......, and the results showed the model could be used to predict the heat and moisture transfer in desiccant rotor. The air thermal conditioning process and energy consumption of HP-SDC was then experimental measured under varied outdoor thermal environments. Results showed that compared to conventional ventilation...

  11. Predicting Comfort Temperature in Indonesia, an Initial Step to Reduce Cooling Energy Consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tri Harso Karyono

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia has no reliable thermal comfort standard that is based on research works. The current national standard (SNI 6390:2011 states only a single range of comfort temperature that is 25.5 °C Ta, with a range of +1.5 °C Ta. Previous thermal studies in a number of different buildings in Indonesia showed that the neutral (comfort temperatures of subjects were about 27 to 28 °C, which is higher than the values stated in the standard. As a big country with various ambient temperatures, Indonesian needs a better and more reliable thermal comfort predictor which can be applied properly across the country. This study is an attempt to propose an initial Indonesian thermal predictor, in the form of a simple equation, which could predict comfort temperatures properly across the country. Reanalysing the previous comfort studies in Indonesia, a simple regression equation is constructed as to be used as the initial Indonesian comfort predictor. Using this predictor, the comfort temperatures in a lowland or coastal cities like Jakarta is found to be higher than the current comfort standard. It is expected that this predictor would help to provide a better indoor thermal environment and at the same reduce the cooling energy in air conditioning (AC building, thus reducing a building’s carbon emissions.

  12. Zero-field-cooled/field-cooled magnetization study of Dendrimer model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arejdal, M., E-mail: arejdal.achdad@gmail.com [Laboratory of Magnetism and Physics of High Energies, Department of Physics, L.M.P.H.E (URAC-12), Faculty of Sciences, Mohammed V University, Rabat (Morocco); Bahmad, L. [Laboratory of Magnetism and Physics of High Energies, Department of Physics, L.M.P.H.E (URAC-12), Faculty of Sciences, Mohammed V University, Rabat (Morocco); Benyoussef, A. [Hassan II Academy of Science and Technology, Rabat (Morocco)

    2017-01-01

    Being motivated by Dendrimer model with mixed spins σ=3 and S=7/2, we investigated the magnetic nanoparticle system in this study. We analyzed and discussed the ground-state phase diagrams and the stable phases. Then, we elaborated and explained the magnetic properties of the system by using Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) in the framework of the Ising model. In this way, we determined the blocking temperature, which is deduced through studying the partial-total magnetization and susceptibility as a function of the temperature, and we established the effects of both the exchange coupling interaction and the crystal field on the hysteresis loop.

  13. Optimization of Cooling Water Flow Rate in Nuclear and Thermal Power Plants Based on a Mathematical Model of Cooling Systems1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murav’ev, V. P.; Kochetkov, A. V.; Glazova, E. G.

    2016-01-01

    A mathematical model and algorithms are proposed for automatic calculation of the optimum flow rate of cooling water in nuclear and thermal power plants with cooling systems of arbitrary complexity. An unlimited number of configuration and design variants are assumed with the possibility of obtaining a result for any computational time interval, from monthly to hourly. The structural solutions corresponding to an optimum cooling water flow rate can be used for subsequent engineering-economic evaluation of the best cooling system variant. The computerized mathematical model and algorithms make it possible to determine the availability and degree of structural changes for the cooling system in all stages of the life cycle of a plant.

  14. Sensitivity analysis of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor control rod model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, M.; Green, P.L.; O’Driscoll, D.; Worden, K.; Sims, N.D.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A model was made of the AGR control rod mechanism. • The aim was to better understand the performance when shutting down the reactor. • The model showed good agreement with test data. • Sensitivity analysis was carried out. • The results demonstrated the robustness of the system. - Abstract: A model has been made of the primary shutdown system of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor nuclear power station. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of sensitivity analysis techniques on this model. The two motivations for performing sensitivity analysis are to quantify how much individual uncertain parameters are responsible for the model output uncertainty, and to make predictions about what could happen if one or several parameters were to change. Global sensitivity analysis techniques were used based on Gaussian process emulation; the software package GEM-SA was used to calculate the main effects, the main effect index and the total sensitivity index for each parameter and these were compared to local sensitivity analysis results. The results suggest that the system performance is resistant to adverse changes in several parameters at once.

  15. Modelling of phenomena in solid state for the steel casting cooled by liquid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kulawik

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a mathematical model of cooling process for steel castings is presented. Effect of convective motion of the coolant onmaterial structure after cooling process is investigated. Mathematical and numerical model based on Generalized Difference Method for axysimmertric elements is used. To solve the Navier-Stokes equation the characteristic based split scheme (CBS has been applied. The solution of the heat transport equation with the convective term has been obtained by a stabilized meshless method. To determine of the phase transformation the macroscopic model built on the basis of Time Temperature Transformation diagrams for continuous cooling of medium-carbon steel has been used. The temporary temperature fields, the phase transformation, thermal and structural strains for the cooled element and the fields of temperature and velocity for the coolant have been determined.

  16. A simulation for predicting potential cooling effect on LPG-fuelled vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiyo, M.; Soeparman, S.; Wahyudi, S.; Hamidi, N.

    2016-03-01

    Liquefied Petroleum Gas vehicles (LPG Vehicles) provide a potential cooling effect about 430 kJ/kg LPG consumption. This cooling effect is obtained from the LPG phase change from liquid to vapor in the vaporizer. In the existing system, energy to evaporate LPG is obtained from the coolant which is circulated around the vaporizer. One advantage is that the LPG (70/30 propane / butane) when expanded from 8 bar to at 1.2 bar, the temperature is less than -25 °C. These conditions provide opportunities to evaporate LPG with ambient air flow, then produce a cooling effect for cooling car's cabin. In this study, some LPG mix was investigated to determine the optimum condition. A simulation was carried out to estimate potential cooling effects of 2000 cc engine from 1000 rpm to 6000 rpm. In this case, the mass flow rate of LPG is a function of fuel consumption. The simulation result shows that the LPG (70/30 propane/butane) provide the greatest cooling effect compared with other mixtures. In conclusion, the 2000 cc engine fueled LPG at 3000 rpm provides potential cooling effect more than 1.3 kW, despite in the low engine speed (1000 rpm) only provides about 0.5 kW.

  17. A simplified simulation model for a HPDC die with conformal cooling channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frings, Markus; Behr, Marek; Elgeti, Stefanie

    2017-10-01

    In general, the cooling phase of the high-pressure die casting process is based on complex physical phenomena: so-lidification of molten material; heat exchange between cast part, die and cooling fluid; turbulent flow inside the cooling channels that needs to be considered when computing the heat flux; interdependency of properties and temperature of the cooling liquid. Intuitively understanding and analyzing all of these effects when designing HPDC dies is not feasible. A remedy that has become available is numerical design, based for example on shape optimization methods. However, current computing power is not sufficient to perform optimization while at the same time fully resolving all physical phenomena. But since in HPDC suitable objective functions very often lead to integral values, e.g., average die temperature, this paper identifies possible simplifications in the modeling of the cooling phase. As a consequence, the computational effort is reduced to an acceptable level. A further aspect that arises in the context of shape optimization is the evaluation of shape gradients. The challenge here is to allow for large shape deformations without remeshing. In our approach, the cooling channels are described by their center lines. The flow profile of the cooling fluid is then estimated based on experimental data found in literature for turbulent pipe flows. In combination, the heat flux throughout cavity, die, and cooling channel can be described by one single advection-diffusion equation on a fixed mesh. The parameters in the equation are adjusted based on the position of cavity and cooling channel. Both results contribute towards a computationally efficient, yet accurate method, which can be employed within the frame of shape optimization of cooling channels in HPDC dies.

  18. Blast-cooling of beef-in-sauce catering meals: numerical results based on a dynamic zero-order model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose A. Rabi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Beef-in-sauce catering meals under blast-cooling have been investigated in a research project which aims at quantitative HACCP (hazard analysis critical control point. In view of its prospective coupling to a predictive microbiology model proposed in the project, zero-order spatial dependence has proved to suitably predict meal temperatures in response to temperature variations in the cooling air. This approach has modelled heat transfer rates via the a priori unknown convective coefficient hc which is allowed to vary due to uncertainty and variability in the actual modus operandi of the chosen case study hospital kitchen. Implemented in MS Excel®, the numerical procedure has successfully combined the 4th order Runge-Kutta method, to solve the governing equation, with non-linear optimization, via the built-in Solver, to determine the coefficient hc. In this work, the coefficient hc was assessed for 119 distinct recently-cooked meal samples whose temperature-time profiles were recorded in situ after 17 technical visits to the hospital kitchen over a year. The average value and standard deviation results were hc = 12.0 ± 4.1 W m-2 K-1, whilst the lowest values (associated with the worst cooling scenarios were about hc » 6.0 W m-2 K-1.

  19. Dimension dependence of clustering dynamics in models of ballistic aggregation and freely cooling granular gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Subhajit; Das, Subir K.

    2018-03-01

    Via event-driven molecular dynamics simulations we study kinetics of clustering in assemblies of inelastic particles in various space dimensions. We consider two models, viz., the ballistic aggregation model (BAM) and the freely cooling granular gas model (GGM), for each of which we quantify the time dependence of kinetic energy and average mass of clusters (that form due to inelastic collisions). These quantities, for both the models, exhibit power-law behavior, at least in the long time limit. For the BAM, corresponding exponents exhibit strong dimension dependence and follow a hyperscaling relation. In addition, in the high packing fraction limit the behavior of these quantities become consistent with a scaling theory that predicts an inverse relation between energy and mass. On the other hand, in the case of the GGM we do not find any evidence for such a picture. In this case, even though the energy decay, irrespective of packing fraction, matches quantitatively with that for the high packing fraction picture of the BAM, it is inversely proportional to the growth of mass only in one dimension, and the growth appears to be rather insensitive to the choice of the dimension, unlike the BAM.

  20. Incorporation of velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and particle surface friction into kinetic theory for modeling granular flow cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Yifei; Feng, Zhi-Gang

    2017-12-01

    Kinetic theory (KT) has been successfully used to model rapid granular flows in which particle interactions are frictionless and near elastic. However, it fails when particle interactions become frictional and inelastic. For example, the KT is not able to accurately predict the free cooling process of a vibrated granular medium that consists of inelastic frictional particles under microgravity. The main reason that the classical KT fails to model these flows is due to its inability to account for the particle surface friction and its inelastic behavior, which are the two most important factors that need be considered in modeling collisional granular flows. In this study, we have modified the KT model that is able to incorporate these two factors. The inelasticity of a particle is considered by establishing a velocity-dependent expression for the restitution coefficient based on many experimental studies found in the literature, and the particle friction effect is included by using a tangential restitution coefficient that is related to the particle friction coefficient. Theoretical predictions of the free cooling process by the classical KT and the improved KT are compared with the experimental results from a study conducted on an airplane undergoing parabolic flights without the influence of gravity [Y. Grasselli, G. Bossis, and G. Goutallier, Europhys. Lett. 86, 60007 (2009)10.1209/0295-5075/86/60007]. Our results show that both the velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and the particle surface friction are important in predicting the free cooling process of granular flows; the modified KT model that integrates these two factors is able to improve the simulation results and leads to better agreement with the experimental results.

  1. Incorporation of velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and particle surface friction into kinetic theory for modeling granular flow cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Yifei; Feng, Zhi-Gang

    2017-12-01

    Kinetic theory (KT) has been successfully used to model rapid granular flows in which particle interactions are frictionless and near elastic. However, it fails when particle interactions become frictional and inelastic. For example, the KT is not able to accurately predict the free cooling process of a vibrated granular medium that consists of inelastic frictional particles under microgravity. The main reason that the classical KT fails to model these flows is due to its inability to account for the particle surface friction and its inelastic behavior, which are the two most important factors that need be considered in modeling collisional granular flows. In this study, we have modified the KT model that is able to incorporate these two factors. The inelasticity of a particle is considered by establishing a velocity-dependent expression for the restitution coefficient based on many experimental studies found in the literature, and the particle friction effect is included by using a tangential restitution coefficient that is related to the particle friction coefficient. Theoretical predictions of the free cooling process by the classical KT and the improved KT are compared with the experimental results from a study conducted on an airplane undergoing parabolic flights without the influence of gravity [Y. Grasselli, G. Bossis, and G. Goutallier, Europhys. Lett. 86, 60007 (2009), 10.1209/0295-5075/86/60007]. Our results show that both the velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and the particle surface friction are important in predicting the free cooling process of granular flows; the modified KT model that integrates these two factors is able to improve the simulation results and leads to better agreement with the experimental results.

  2. Temperature Field Accurate Modeling and Cooling Performance Evaluation of Direct-Drive Outer-Rotor Air-Cooling In-Wheel Motor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Chai

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available High power density outer-rotor motors commonly use water or oil cooling. A reasonable thermal design for outer-rotor air-cooling motors can effectively enhance the power density without the fluid circulating device. Research on the heat dissipation mechanism of an outer-rotor air-cooling motor can provide guidelines for the selection of the suitable cooling mode and the design of the cooling structure. This study investigates the temperature field of the motor through computational fluid dynamics (CFD and presents a method to overcome the difficulties in building an accurate temperature field model. The proposed method mainly includes two aspects: a new method for calculating the equivalent thermal conductivity (ETC of the air-gap in the laminar state and an equivalent treatment to the thermal circuit that comprises a hub, shaft, and bearings. Using an outer-rotor air-cooling in-wheel motor as an example, the temperature field of this motor is calculated numerically using the proposed method; the results are experimentally verified. The heat transfer rate (HTR of each cooling path is obtained using the numerical results and analytic formulas. The influences of the structural parameters on temperature increases and the HTR of each cooling path are analyzed. Thereafter, the overload capability of the motor is analyzed in various overload conditions.

  3. Damage prediction of carbon fibre composite armoured actively cooled plasma-facing components under cycling heat loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevet, G; Schlosser, J; Courtois, X; Escourbiac, F; Missirlian, M; Herb, V; Martin, E; Camus, G; Braccini, M

    2009-01-01

    In order to predict the lifetime of carbon fibre composite (CFC) armoured plasma-facing components in magnetic fusion devices, it is necessary to analyse the damage mechanisms and to model the damage propagation under cycling heat loads. At Tore Supra studies have been launched to better understand the damage process of the armoured flat tile elements of the actively cooled toroidal pump limiter, leading to the characterization of the damageable mechanical behaviour of the used N11 CFC material and of the CFC/Cu bond. Up until now the calculations have shown damage developing in the CFC (within the zone submitted to high shear stress) and in the bond (from the free edge of the CFC/Cu interface). Damage is due to manufacturing shear stresses and does not evolve under heat due to stress relaxation. For the ITER divertor, NB31 material has been characterized and the characterization of NB41 is in progress. Finite element calculations show again the development of CFC damage in the high shear stress zones after manufacturing. Stresses also decrease under heat flux so the damage does not evolve. The characterization of the CFC/Cu bond is more complex due to the monoblock geometry, which leads to more scattered stresses. These calculations allow the fabrication difficulties to be better understood and will help to analyse future high heat flux tests on various mock-ups.

  4. Numerical modelling of series-parallel cooling systems in power plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regucki, Paweł; Lewkowicz, Marek; Kucięba, Małgorzata

    2017-11-01

    The paper presents a mathematical model allowing one to study series-parallel hydraulic systems like, e.g., the cooling system of a power boiler's auxiliary devices or a closed cooling system including condensers and cooling towers. The analytical approach is based on a set of non-linear algebraic equations solved using numerical techniques. As a result of the iterative process, a set of volumetric flow rates of water through all the branches of the investigated hydraulic system is obtained. The calculations indicate the influence of changes in the pipeline's geometrical parameters on the total cooling water flow rate in the analysed installation. Such an approach makes it possible to analyse different variants of the modernization of the studied systems, as well as allowing for the indication of its critical elements. Basing on these results, an investor can choose the optimal variant of the reconstruction of the installation from the economic point of view. As examples of such a calculation, two hydraulic installations are described. One is a boiler auxiliary cooling installation including two screw ash coolers. The other is a closed cooling system consisting of cooling towers and condensers.

  5. Modeling and Control of a Single-Phase Marine Cooling System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael; Stoustrup, Jakob; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents two model-based control design approaches for a single-phase marine cooling system. Models are derived from first principles and aim at describing significant system dynamics including nonlinearities and transport delays, while keeping the model complexity low. The two...

  6. Modelling of Water Cooled Fuel Including Design Basis and Severe Accidents. Proceedings of a Technical Meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    The demands on nuclear fuel have recently been increasing, and include transient regimes, higher discharge burnup and longer fuel cycles. This has resulted in an increase of loads on fuel and core internals. In order to satisfy these demands while ensuring compliance with safety criteria, new national and international programmes have been launched and advanced modelling codes are being developed. The Fukushima Daiichi accident has particularly demonstrated the need for adequate analysis of all aspects of fuel performance to prevent a failure and also to predict fuel behaviour were an accident to occur.This publication presents the Proceedings of the Technical Meeting on Modelling of Water Cooled Fuel Including Design Basis and Severe Accidents, which was hosted by the Nuclear Power Institute of China (NPIC) in Chengdu, China, following the recommendation made in 2013 at the IAEA Technical Working Group on Fuel Performance and Technology. This recommendation was in agreement with IAEA mid-term initiatives, linked to the post-Fukushima IAEA Nuclear Safety Action Plan, as well as the forthcoming Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on Fuel Modelling in Accident Conditions. At the technical meeting in Chengdu, major areas and physical phenomena, as well as types of code and experiment to be studied and used in the CRP, were discussed. The technical meeting provided a forum for international experts to review the state of the art of code development for modelling fuel performance of nuclear fuel for water cooled reactors with regard to steady state and transient conditions, and for design basis and early phases of severe accidents, including experimental support for code validation. A round table discussion focused on the needs and perspectives on fuel modelling in accident conditions. This meeting was the ninth in a series of IAEA meetings, which reflects Member States’ continuing interest in nuclear fuel issues. The previous meetings were held in 1980 (jointly with

  7. Inter-subchannel heat transfer modeling for a subchannel analysis of liquid metal-cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hae-Yong, Jeong; Kwi-Seok, Ha; Young-Min, Kwon; Yong-Bum, Lee; Dohee, Hahn

    2007-01-01

    In a subchannel approach, the temperature, pressure and velocity in a subchannel are averaged, and one representative thermal-hydraulic condition specifies the state of a subchannel. To enhance the predictability of a subchannel analysis code, it is required to model the inter-subchannel heat transfer between the adjacent subchannels as accurately as possible. One of the critical parameters which determine the thermal-hydraulic behavior of the coolant in subchannels is the heat conduction between two neighboring sub-channels. This portion of a heat transfer becomes more important in the design of an LMR (Liquid Metal-cooled Reactor) because of the high heat capacity of the liquid metal coolant. The other important part of heat transfer is the mixing of flow as a form of cross flow. Especially, the turbulent mixing caused by the eddy motion of fluid across the gap between the subchannels enhances the exchange of the momentum and the energy through the gap with no net transport of the mass. Major results of recent efforts on these modeling have been implemented in a subchannel analysis code MATRA-LMR-FB. The analysis shows that the accuracy of a subchannel analysis code is improved by enhancing the models describing the conduction heat transfer and the cross-flow mixing, especially at low flow rate. (authors)

  8. Two-dimensional modeling of water spray cooling in superheated steam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebrahimian Vahid

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Spray cooling of the superheated steam occurs with the interaction of many complex physical processes, such as initial droplet formation, collision, coalescence, secondary break up, evaporation, turbulence generation, and modulation, as well as turbulent mixing, heat, mass and momentum transfer in a highly non-uniform two-phase environment. While it is extremely difficult to systematically study particular effects in this complex interaction in a well defined physical experiment, the interaction is well suited for numerical studies based on advanced detailed models of all the processes involved. This paper presents results of such a numerical experiment. Cooling of the superheated steam can be applied in order to decrease the temperature of superheated steam in power plants. By spraying the cooling water into the superheated steam, the temperature of the superheated steam can be controlled. In this work, water spray cooling was modeled to investigate the influences of the droplet size, injected velocity, the pressure and velocity of the superheated steam on the evaporation of the cooling water. The results show that by increasing the diameter of the droplets, the pressure and velocity of the superheated steam, the amount of evaporation of cooling water increases. .

  9. Heating and cooling building energy demand evaluation; a simplified model and a modified degree days approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Rosa, Mattia; Bianco, Vincenzo; Scarpa, Federico; Tagliafico, Luca A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic model to estimate the energy performance of buildings is presented. • The model is validated against leading software packages, TRNSYS and Energy Plus. • Modified degree days are introduced to account for solar irradiation effects. - Abstract: Degree days represent a versatile climatic indicator which is commonly used in building energy performance analysis. In this context, the present paper proposes a simple dynamic model to simulate heating/cooling energy consumption in buildings. The model consists of several transient energy balance equations for external walls and internal air according to a lumped-capacitance approach and it has been implemented utilizing the Matlab/Simulink® platform. Results are validated by comparison to the outcomes of leading software packages, TRNSYS and Energy Plus. By using the above mentioned model, energy consumption for heating/cooling is analyzed in different locations, showing that for low degree days the inertia effect assumes a paramount importance, affecting the common linear behavior of the building consumption against the standard degree days, especially for cooling energy demand. Cooling energy demand at low cooling degree days (CDDs) is deeply analyzed, highlighting that in this situation other factors, such as solar irradiation, have an important role. To take into account these effects, a correction to CDD is proposed, demonstrating that by considering all the contributions the linear relationship between energy consumption and degree days is maintained

  10. Spallation Neutron Source Drift Tube Linac Resonance Control Cooling System Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Tang, Johnny Y; Champion, Marianne M; Feschenko, Alexander; Gibson, Paul; Kiselev, Yuri; Kovalishin, A S; Kravchuk, Leonid V; Kvasha, Adolf; Schubert, James P

    2005-01-01

    The Resonance Control Cooling System (RCCS) for the warm linac of the Spallation Neutron Source was designed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. The primary design focus was on water cooling of individual component contributions. The sizing the RCCS water skid was accomplished by means of a specially created SINDA/FLUINT model tailored to these system requirements. A new model was developed in Matlab Simulink and incorporates actual operational values and control valve interactions. Included is the dependence of RF input power on system operation, cavity detuning values during transients, time delays that result from water flows through the heat exchanger, the dynamic process of water warm-up in the cooling system due to dissipated RF power on the cavity surface, differing contributions on the cavity detuning due to drift tube and wall heating, and a dynamic model of the heat exchanger with characteristics in close agreement to the real unit. Because of the Matlab Simulink model, investigation of a wide range ...

  11. RESEARCH OF INFLUENCE OF THE RODS CONSTRUCTION ON THEIR COOLING ABILITY AT FROSTING OF SILUMINS BY METHOD OF NUMERICAL MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Yu. Stetsenko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerical modeling of heat transfer coefficient on the surface of the water-cooled rod with a slotted and jet cooling was made.  calculations were carried out in a free, open  source  CFD software package OpenFOAM. it is shown that jet cooling is more uniform and intense compared to the slotted cooling

  12. Revisiting the Climate Impacts of Cool Roofs around the Globe Using an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Ban-Weiss, G. A.; Zhang, K.; Liu, J.

    2016-12-01

    Solar reflective "cool roofs" absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofs in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (-0.11±0.10 K) and the United States (-0.14±0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. Though past research has disagreed on whether widespread adoption of cool roofs would cool or warm global climate, these studies have lacked analysis on the statistical significance of global temperature changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air

  13. Prediction of burnout of a conduction-cooled BSCCO current lead

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seol, S.Y.; Cha, Y.S.; Niemann, R.C.; Hull, J.R.

    1996-01-01

    A one-dimensional heat conduction model is employed to predict burnout of a Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8 current lead. The upper end of the lead is assumed to be at 77 K and the lower end is at 4 K. The results show that burnout always occurs at the warmer end of the lead. The lead reaches its burnout temperature in two distinct stage. Initially, the temperature rises slowly when part of the lead is in flux-flow state. As the local temperature reaches the critical temperature, it begins to increase sharply. Burnout time depends strongly on flux-flow resistivity

  14. The Design of Cooling System Model on The AP1000 Containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daddy Setyawan; Yerri Noer Kartiko; Aryadi Suwono; Ari Darmawan Pasek; Nathanael P Tandian; Efrizon Umar

    2009-01-01

    The policy of national energy leads to the utilization of new energy as nuclear energy, and also contains some efforts to increase reactor safety and optimizing in the design of safety system component such as passive cooling system on reactor containment tank. Because of this, the assessment of safety level to passive safety system needs to be made. To increase the understanding it, the design of cooling system model on containment tank should be done to get safety level on cooling system in the AP1000 containment. To reach the similar model with reality and inexpensive cost, we should make assessment about similarity and dimensionless number. While the heat transfer of air natural circulation and water spray cooling system are a result of gravity approach, we can calculate Grashof modification number and Reynolds number respectively. By this approach, we have a factor of forty for laboratory model. From this model, we hope that we get characteristic correlation to heat transfer on the containment of AP1000 for both air natural circulation and water spray result from gravity. Finally, we can assess the safety level of passive cooling system on the AP1000 containment. (author)

  15. Modelling infrared temperature measurements: implications for laser irradiation and cryogen cooling studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, B.; Pearce, J.A.; Welch, A.J.

    2000-01-01

    The use of thermographic techniques has increased as infrared detector technology has evolved and improved. For laser-tissue interactions, thermal cameras have been used to monitor the thermal response of tissue to pulsed and continuous wave irradiation. It is important to note that the temperature indicated by the thermal camera may not be equal to the actual surface temperature. It is crucial to understand the limitations of using thermal cameras to measure temperature during laser irradiation of tissue. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the potential difference between measured and actual surface temperatures in a quantitative fashion using a 1D finite difference model. Three ablation models and one cryogen spray cooling simulation were adapted from the literature, and predictions of radiometric temperature measurements were calculated. In general, (a) steep superficial temperature gradients, with a surface peak, resulted in an underestimation of the actual surface temperature, (b) steep superficial temperature gradients, with a subsurface peak, resulted in an overestimation, and (c) small gradients led to a relatively accurate temperature estimate. (author)

  16. Integration of Generic Multi-dimensional Model and Operational Policies for Batch Cooling Crystallization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdul Samad, Noor Asma Fazli; Singh, Ravendra; Sin, Gürkan

    2011-01-01

    A generic multi-dimensional modeling framework for studying batch cooling crystallization processes under generated operational policies is presented. The generic nature of the modeling allows the study of a wide range of chemical systems under different operational scenarios, enabling thereby, t...

  17. Theoretical Models for the Cooling Power and Base Temperature of Dilution Refrigerators

    CERN Document Server

    Wikus, Patrick

    2010-01-01

    He-3/He-4 dilution refrigerators are widely used for applications requiring continuous cooling at temperatures below approximately 300 mK. Despite of the popularity of these devices in low temperature physics, the thermodynamic relations underlying the cooling mechanism of He-3/He-4 refrigerators are very often incorrectly used. Several thermodynamic models of dilution refrigeration have been published in the past, sometimes contradicting each other. These models are reviewed and compared with each other over a range of different He-3 flow rates. In addition, a new numerical method for the calculation of a dilution refrigerator's cooling power at arbitrary flow rates is presented. This method has been developed at CERN's Central Cryogenic Laboratory. It can be extended to include many effects that cannot easily be accounted for by any of the other models, including the degradation of heat exchanger performance due to the limited number of step heat exchanger elements, which can be considerable for some design...

  18. From drop impact physics to spray cooling models: a critical review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breitenbach, Jan; Roisman, Ilia V.; Tropea, Cameron

    2018-03-01

    Spray-wall interaction is an important process encountered in a large number of existing and emerging technologies and is the underlying phenomenon associated with spray cooling. Spray cooling is a very efficient technology, surpassing all other conventional cooling methods, especially those not involving phase change and not exploiting the latent heat of vaporization. However, the effectiveness of spray cooling is dependent on a large number of parameters, including spray characteristics like drop size, velocity and number density, the surface morphology, but also on the temperature range and thermal properties of the materials involved. Indeed, the temperature of the substrate can have significant influence on the hydrodynamics of drop and spray impact, an aspect which is seldom considered in model formulation. This process is extremely complex, thus most design rules to date are highly empirical in nature. On the other hand, significant theoretical progress has been made in recent years about the interaction of single drops with heated walls and improvements to the fundamentals of spray cooling can now be anticipated. The present review has the objective of summarizing some of these recent advances and to establish a framework for future development of more reliable and universal physics-based correlations to describe quantities involved in spray cooling.

  19. Model tests for the emergency cooling system of the prototype reactor SNR 300

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hain, H.; Hofmann, F.; Kirsch, D.; Kleefeldt, K.; Kramer, W.; Meyder, R.

    The accident considered is a pipe rupture of the pump pressure pipe coupled with a failure of the pump shutdown system. The emergency cooling concept is based upon natural convection inside the tank generated by heat added in the core and a heat sink consisting of immersion coolers attached to the inside of the tank. This cooling circuit within the tank is covered by a computer program (NOTUNG) drafted by the Interatom company for a theoretical model describing the thermodynamic behavior of the circuit. Model tests to support the analytical calculations are outlined. Comparison between calculation and experiment was made. (auth)

  20. A model for cooling systems analysis under natural convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, S.J. dos.

    1988-01-01

    The present work analyses thermosyphons and their non dimensional numbers. The mathematical model considers constant pressure, single-phase incompressible flow. It simulates both open and closed thermosyphons, and deals with heat sources like PWR cores of electrical heaters and cold sinks like heat exchangers or reservoirs. A computer code named STRATS was developed based on this model. (author)

  1. modelling room cooling capacity with fuzzy logic procedure

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    for automatic and economical supplementary tools that will allow expertise input into design process [9]. Reasoning based on fuzzy models was however identified to provide an optional direction of handling the way humans think and make judgments [10]. This study developed and validated a model capable of estimating ...

  2. Multiphase Model of Semisolid Slurry Generation and Isothermal Holding During Cooling Slope Rheoprocessing of A356 Al Alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Prosenjit; Samanta, Sudip K.; Mondal, Biswanath; Dutta, Pradip

    2018-04-01

    In the present paper, we present an experimentally validated 3D multiphase and multiscale solidification model to understand the transport processes involved during slurry generation with a cooling slope. In this process, superheated liquid alloy is poured at the top of the cooling slope and allowed to flow along the slope under the influence of gravity. As the melt flows down the slope, it progressively loses its superheat, starts solidifying at the melt/slope interface with formation of solid crystals, and eventually exits the slope as semisolid slurry. In the present simulation, the three phases considered are the parent melt as the primary phase, and the solid grains and air as secondary phases. The air phase forms a definable air/liquid melt interface as the free surface. After exiting the slope, the slurry fills an isothermal holding bath maintained at the slope exit temperature, which promotes further globularization of microstructure. The outcomes of the present model include prediction of volume fractions of the three different phases considered, grain evolution, grain growth, size, sphericity and distribution of solid grains, temperature field, velocity field, macrosegregation and microsegregation. In addition, the model is found to be capable of making predictions of morphological evolution of primary grains at the onset of isothermal coarsening. The results obtained from the present simulations are validated by performing quantitative image analysis of micrographs of the rapidly oil-quenched semisolid slurry samples, collected from strategic locations along the slope and from the isothermal slurry holding bath.

  3. Model-based fault detection for generator cooling system in wind turbines using SCADA data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borchersen, Anders Bech; Kinnaert, Michel

    2016-01-01

    In this work, an early fault detection system for the generator cooling of wind turbines is presented and tested. It relies on a hybrid model of the cooling system. The parameters of the generator model are estimated by an extended Kalman filter. The estimated parameters are then processed...... by an appropriate statistical change detection algorithm in order to detect faults in the cooling system. To validate the method, it has been tested on 3 years of historical data from 43 turbines. During the testing period, 16 faults occurred; 15 of these were detected by the developed method, and one false alarm...... was issued. This is an improvement compared with the current system that gives 15 detections and more than 10 false alarms. In some cases, the method detects the fault a long time before the turbine reports an alarm. A further advantage of the method is that it is based on supervisory control and data...

  4. A Coupled Model for Work Roll Thermal Contour with Subsectional Cooling in Aluminum Strip Cold Rolling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shao Jian

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Little attention had been given to the evaluation of subsectional cooling control ability under complicated working conditions. In this paper, heat generation was calculated by using finite difference method. Strip hardening, work roll elastic deformation and elastic recovery of strip were taken into account. The mean coefficient of convective heat transfer on work roll surface was simulated by FLUENT. Calculation model had used the alternative finite difference scheme, which improved the model stability and computing speed. The simulation result shows that subsectional cooling control ability is different between different rolling passes. Positive and negative control abilities are roughly the same in the same pass. The increase of rolled length, working pressure of header and friction coefficient has positive effect on subsectional cooling control ability, and the rolling speed is on the contrary. On the beginning of the pass, when work roll surface has not reached the stable temperature, control ability of subsectional cooling is mainly affected by rolled length. The effect of mean coefficient of convective heat transfer and coefficient of friction is linear. When rolling speed is over 500 m/min, control ability of subsectional cooling becomes stable.

  5. Towards a Better Control of Chemicals Dosing in Condenser Open-Recirculating Cooling Systems Through the Use of Modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, Philippa; Lepine, Gaelle; Rapenne, Sophie; Demay, Eric; Jardin, Audrey; Shakourzadeh, Khalil; Alos-Ramos, Olga

    2012-09-01

    The main issue of condenser open recirculating cooling systems remains scaling. This can have high economic consequences due to a loss of thermal exchange, an increase of maintenance costs and potentially plant shutdown. To tackle this problem, EDF is currently designing new chemicals' dosing equipment for anti-scalants or acid. To optimise treatment cost and limit the chemicals' environmental impact, dosing and control systems should be efficient enough to add only the required quantity to prevent scaling without overdosing. CooliSS C , a model developed for simulating the water chemistry of open recirculating cooling systems, can be used to adjust acid dosage and to pre-evaluate selected acid control systems. In circuits with no current treatment, where the scaling situation is being monitored, CooliSS C is a useful tool in predicting scaling potential and could even be used to predict the expected quantity of deposits. In the first case study, CooliSS ST, the static version of the model, was used to evaluate the sulfuric acid injection needs for Golfech nuclear power plant following a modification to the condenser cooling water circuit operating conditions. The results obtained via simulation were compared with manual calculations in order to demonstrate the accuracy of the software. In the second case study, CooliSS DX, the dynamic version of the CooliSS C model, was used to evaluate new acid control systems planned for Cruas nuclear power plant before the systems' commissioning. CooliSS DX predicts the scaling rate in the different parts of the cooling water system as a function of time. In fact, this version is able to calculate the variations of chemical composition along the circuit when operating conditions change (make-up quality, flow rates, evaporation rate, temperature...). A module was combined to CooliSS DX to evaluate acid control equipment. This module allows the initial calculation of the acid flow rate as a function of operating

  6. Thermal models of buildings. Determination of temperatures, heating and cooling loads. Theories, models and computer programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaellblad, K.

    1998-05-01

    The need to estimate indoor temperatures, heating or cooling load and energy requirements for buildings arises in many stages of a buildings life cycle, e.g. at the early layout stage, during the design of a building and for energy retrofitting planning. Other purposes are to meet the authorities requirements given in building codes. All these situations require good calculation methods. The main purpose of this report is to present the authors work with problems related to thermal models and calculation methods for determination of temperatures and heating or cooling loads in buildings. Thus the major part of the report deals with treatment of solar radiation in glazing systems, shading of solar and sky radiation and the computer program JULOTTA used to simulate the thermal behavior of rooms and buildings. Other parts of thermal models of buildings are more briefly discussed and included in order to give an overview of existing problems and available solutions. A brief presentation of how thermal models can be built up is also given and it is a hope that the report can be useful as an introduction to this part of building physics as well as during development of calculation methods and computer programs. The report may also serve as a help for the users of energy related programs. Independent of which method or program a user choose to work with it is his or her own responsibility to understand the limits of the tool, else wrong conclusions may be drawn from the results 52 refs, 22 figs, 4 tabs

  7. Numerical model of crustal accretion and cooling rates of fast-spreading mid-ocean ridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Machetel

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We designed a thermo-mechanical numerical model for fast-spreading mid-ocean ridge with variable viscosity, hydrothermal cooling, latent heat release, sheeted dyke layer, and variable melt intrusion possibilities. The model allows for modulating several accretion possibilities such as the "gabbro glacier" (G, the "sheeted sills" (S or the "mixed shallow and MTZ lenses" (M. These three crustal accretion modes have been explored assuming viscosity contrasts of 2 to 3 orders of magnitude between strong and weak phases and various hydrothermal cooling conditions depending on the cracking temperatures value. Mass conservation (stream-function, momentum (vorticity and temperature equations are solved in 2-D cartesian geometry using 2-D, alternate direction, implicit and semi-implicit finite-difference scheme. In a first step, an Eulerian approach is used solving iteratively the motion and temperature equations until reaching steady states. With this procedure, the temperature patterns and motions that are obtained for the various crustal intrusion modes and hydrothermal cooling hypotheses display significant differences near the mid-ocean ridge axis. In a second step, a Lagrangian approach is used, recording the thermal histories and cooling rates of tracers travelling from the ridge axis to their final emplacements in the crust far from the mid-ocean ridge axis. The results show that the tracer's thermal histories are depending on the temperature patterns and the crustal accretion modes near the mid-ocean ridge axis. The instantaneous cooling rates obtained from these thermal histories betray these discrepancies and might therefore be used to characterize the crustal accretion mode at the ridge axis. These deciphering effects are even more pronounced if we consider the average cooling rates occurring over a prescribed temperature range. Two situations were tested at 1275–1125 °C and 1050–850 °C. The first temperature range covers mainly the

  8. Model predictive control for a thermostatic controlled system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shafiei, Seyed Ehsan; Rasmussen, Henrik; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a model predictive control scheme to provide temperature set-points to thermostatic controlled cooling units in refrigeration systems. The control problem is formulated as a convex programming problem to minimize the overall operating cost of the system. The foodstuff...... temperatures are estimated by reduced order observers and evaporation temperature is regulated by an algorithmic suction pressure control scheme. The method is applied to a validated simulation benchmark. The results show that even with the thermostatic control valves, there exists significant potential...

  9. Modelling of Transport of Radioactive Substances in the Primary Circuit of Water Cooled Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-03-01

    Since the beginning of the development of water cooled nuclear power reactors, it has been known that the materials in contact with the water release some of their corrosion products into the water. As a consequence, some of the corrosion products are neutron-activated while in the reactor core and then create a gamma radiation field when deposited outside the core. These radiation fields are hazardous to the inspection, maintenance and operating staff in the power plant and therefore must be minimized. Many methods have been developed to control these radiation fields, such as the proper selection of materials and surface finishing technologies at the design stage, operating and shutdown water chemistry optimization, and the application of different decontamination methods. The need to understand the causes of this radioactivity transport has resulted in many mathematical models to describe the transport, irradiation and deposition of the radioactive corrosion products out of the core. Early models were empirical descriptions of the transport, irradiation and deposition steps, and these models allowed analytical solution of the resulting differential equations. As the mechanisms responsible for radioactivity transport gradually became better understood, more precise models of the mechanisms were made. Computer codes to solve the equations describing these models are necessary. Accurate codes are invaluable design tools for carrying out cost-benefit analysis during materials selection, for estimating shielding thicknesses and for evaluating water chemistry specifications, for example. Such codes are also useful in operating plants to predict radiation fields at specific locations where shielding may be required during a maintenance shutdown, for example, when control of radiation dose to staff is essential. To complement the previous work of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to improve the mechanistic understanding of radioactivity transport, a

  10. Application of Sub-cooled Boiling Model to Thermal-hydraulic Analysis Inside a CANDU-6 Fuel Channel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Man Woong; Lee, Sang Kyu; Kim, Hyun Koon; Yoo, Kun Joong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyoung Chul; Yoo, Seong Yeon [Chungnam National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    Forced convection nucleate boiling is encountered in heat exchangers during normal and non-nominal modes of operation in pressurized water or boiling water reactors (PWRs or BWRs). If the wall temperature of the piping is higher than the saturation temperature of the nearby liquid, nucleate boiling occurs. In this regime, bubbles are formed at the wall. Their growth is promoted by the wall superheat (the difference between the wall and saturation temperatures), and they depart from the wall as a result of gravitational and liquid inertia forces. If the bulk liquid is subcooled, condensation at the bubble-liquid interface takes place and the bubble may collapse. This convection nucleate boiling is called as a sub-cooled nucleate boiling. As for the fuel channel of a CANDU 6 reactor, forced convection nucleate boiling models for flows along fuel elements enclosed inside typical CANDU-6 fuel channel has encountered difficulties due to the modeling of local effects along the horizontal channel. Therefore, the subcooled nucleate boiling has been modeled through temperature driven boiling heat and mass transfer, using a model developed at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. The objectives of this study are: (i) to investigate a proposed sub-cooled boiling model developed at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and (ii) to apply against a experiment and (iii) to predict local distributions of flow fields for the actual fuel channel geometries of CANDU-6 reactors. The numerical implementation is conducted using by the FLUENT 6.2 CFD computer code.

  11. Modeling of a regenerative indirect evaporative cooler for a desiccant cooling system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bellemo, Lorenzo; Elmegaard, Brian; Reinholdt, Lars O.

    is found to be mostly affected by the inlet humidity ratio. Manufacturer data are used to tune the model. The tuned DPC model is characterized by an area effectiveness coefficient which is kept constant at 0.55. The cooling capacity and water consumption estimated by the tuned model deviate within 3% and 8......%, respectively from manufacturer data. The computed pressure drops deviates within 6% from manufacturer data....

  12. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  13. Cooling problems of thermal power plants. Physical model studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neale, L.C.

    1975-01-01

    The Alden Research Laboratories of Worcester Polytechnic Institute has for many years conducted physical model studies, which are normally classified as river or structural hydraulic studies. Since 1952 one aspect of these studies has involved the heated discharge from steam power plants. The early studies on such problems concentrated on improving the thermal efficiency of the system. This was accomplished by minimizing recirculation and by assuring full use of available cold water supplies. With the growing awareness of the impact of thermal power generation on the environment attention has been redirected to reducing the effect of heated discharges on the biology of the receiving body of water. More specifically the efforts of designers and operators of power plants are aimed at meeting or complying with standards established by various governmental agencies. Thus the studies involve developing means of minimizing surface temperatures at an outfall or establishing a local area of higher temperature with limits specified in terms of areas or distances. The physical models used for these studies have varied widely in scope, size, and operating features. These models have covered large areas with both distorted geometric scales and uniform dimensions. Instrumentations has also varied from simple mercury thermometers to computer control and processing of hundreds of thermocouple indicators

  14. SIMULATION OF A BIOFEEDBACK MICROCLIMATE COOLING SYSTEM USING A HUMAN THERMOREGULATION MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-01

    Introduction .................................................................................................................. 2 Methods...flexibility to choose the appropriate cooling to maximize operational duration. 2 INTRODUCTION Soldiers operating in hot environments are...Oct;8(10):588-99. (14) Potter AW, Gonzalez JA, Xu X. Ebola Response: Modeling the Risk of Heat Stress from Personal Protective Clothing. PLoS

  15. EXPERIMENTAL VERIFICATION OF COMPUTER MODEL OF COOLING SYSTEM FOR POWERFUL SEMI- CONDUCTOR DEVICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Khorunzhii

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A cooling system for powerful semi-conductor device (power -1 kW consisting of a pin-type radiator and a body is considered in the paper. Cooling is carried out by forced convection of a coolant. Calculated values of temperatures on the radiator surface and experimentally measured values of temperatures in the same surface points have been compared in the paper. It has been shown that the difference between calculated and experimentally measured temperatures does not exceed 0,1-0,2 °C and it is comparable with experimental error value. The given results confirm correctness of a computer model.

  16. Analysis and Modeling of Heat Generation in Overcharged Li-Ion Battery with Passive Cooling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coman, Paul Tiberiu; Veje, Christian

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic model for simulating the heat generation in Lithium batteries and an investigation of the heat transfer as well as the capacity of Phase Change Materials (PCM’s) to store energy inside a battery cell module when the battery is overcharged. The study is performed......-cooled and passively cooled using a PCM, respectively. As expected, the results show that for high currents, the heat generation and implicitly the temperature increases. However, using a PCM the temperature increase is found to be limited allowing the battery to be overcharged to a certain degree. It is found...

  17. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  18. Permeability evolution model and numerical analysis of coupled coal deformation, failure and liquid nitrogen cooling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunhui ZHANG

    Full Text Available How to quantitatively evaluate the permeability change of coalbed subjected to liquid nitrogen cooling is a key issue of enhanced-permeability technology of coalbed. To analyze the evolution process of permeability of coupled coal deformation, failure and liquid introgen cooling, the coal is supposed as elastic, brittle and plastic material. Its deformation process includes elastic deformation stage, brittle strength degradation stage and residual plastic flow stage. Combined with strength degradation index, dilatancy index of the element and Mohr-Column strength criterion, the element scale constitutive model with the effects of confining pressure on peak-post mechanical behaviors is built. Based on the deformation process of coal rock, there exist two stages of permeability evolution of the element including decrease of permeability due to elastic contraction and increase due to coal rock element's failure. The relationships between the permeability and elastic deformation, shear failure and tension failure for coal are studied. The permeability will be influenced by the change of pore space due to elastic contraction or tension of element. Conjugate shear zones appear during the shear failure of the element, in which the flow follows so-called cubic law between smooth parallel plates. The calculation formulas of the permeability and the aperture of the fractures are given out based on the volumetric strain. When tension failure criterion is satisfied with the rock element fails and two orthogonal fractures appear. The calculation formulas of the permeability and the width of the fractures are given out based on the volumetric strain. Further, combined with the thermal conduction theory the permeability evolution model of coupled coal deformation, failure and liquid nitrogen cooling is presented. Then Fish function method in FLAC is employed to perform the model. The permeability's evolution process for coal bed cryogenically stimulated

  19. A multiphasic continuum mechanical model for design investigations of an effusion-cooled rocket thrust chamber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghadiani, S.R.

    2005-07-01

    In this thesis, the new concept of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) for an effusion-cooled ceramic rocket combustion chamber is investigated. Using effusion cooling, the porous inner liner of the chamber is cooled by passing the coolant through its pores. The theoretical treatment of the fluid-saturated deformable porous construction under non-isothermal conditions leads to a coupled solid fluid model which is formulated in this thesis within the framework of the Theory of Porous Media (TPM). The multiphasic continuum mechanical model created allows for the definition of mechanical loads, thermal loads as well as a fluid mass flow across the boundary. All necessary constitutive equations are physically expedient conclusions resulting from the evaluation of the determining entropy inequality. The FE-tool PANDAS from the Institute of Mechanics (civil engineering) at University of Stuttgart is used as numerical solver. The numerical simulations discussed in this work are restricted to the qualitative demonstration of the most important physical effects occurring in the construction under study. For a real design study, material parameters have to be determined by experiments which are not the subject of this thesis. Corresponding experiments are being performed in ongoing activities at the DLR. The model presented in this work has to be understood as a general tool for the design investigation of actively cooled porous constructions. (orig.)

  20. Investigation, modelling and control of the 1.9 K cooling loop for superconducting magnets for the Large Hadron Collider

    CERN Document Server

    Flemsæter, Bjorn

    2000-01-01

    The temperature of the superconducting magnets for the 27 km LHC particle accelerator under construction at CERN is a control parameter with strict operating constraints imposed by (a) the maximum temperature at which the magnets can operate, (b) the cooling capacity of the cryogenic system, (c) the variability of applied heat loads and (d) the accuracy of the instrumentation. A pilot plant for studying aspects beyond single magnet testing has been constructed. This magnet test string is a 35-m full-scale model if the LHC and consists of four superconducting cryogmagnets operating in a static bath of He II at 1.9 K. An experimental investigation of the properties dynamic characteristics of the 1.9 K cooling loop of the magnet test string has been carried out. A first principle model of the system has been created. A series of experiments designed for system identification purposes have been carried out, and black box models of the system have been created on the basis on the recorded data. A Model Predictive ...

  1. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  2. Modelling the cooling and partial dismantling of the Febex in-situ test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, M.; Gens, A.; Guimaraes, L.

    2010-01-01

    predictions from analysis. The operation related to the partial dismantling included the demolition of the concrete plug and the removal of the sections of the barrier corresponding to 'Heater 1'. The objective was to carry out the partial dismantling causing minimum disturbance to the sections of test corresponding to the second heater, which remained in operation at all times. A new concrete plug was constructed immediately after excavation. A detailed description of the work performed during the partial dismantling of the in-situ test can be found in Huertas et al. (2006). This contribution focuses on the modelling of the cooling and partly dismantling of the FEBEX in-situ experiment. The finite element computer program CODE-BRIGHT has been used for the numerical analysis. CODE-BRIGHT is a program developed to handle coupled Thermo-Hydro- Mechanical and Geochemical problems in geological media. It has been observed a very good performance of the model to reproduce the evolution of the main THM variables of the tests, during the cooling of the Heater No.1, concrete demolition and excavation of the clay barrier. It is worth mentioning that these are a kind of 'blind model predictions', as the constitutive laws and model parameters adopted at the beginning of the heating were used in this analysis. (authors)

  3. Modeling thermohydrodynamic processes in the water-cooled reactor core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Semenovich, O.

    2015-01-01

    Has been made the computer code of simulation of the processes of the hydrodynamics and heat transfer in the flow of coolant, which should act as a liaison between the system code and the subchannel code. This code is designed to calculate the parameters of the coolant, which are averaged over the cross section of the fuel assembly, so we'll call it the cassette thermohydraulic code (or just – cassette code). For the numerical implementation of the proposed mathematical subchannel model used semi-implicit numerical scheme. All variables that are present in the source terms and in the terms describing of interconnect on the interphases surfaces and on the surfaces of solid walls are treated in an implicit interpretation: they are interpreted as the values in new point in time. The phase velocities included in the convective terms of the mass and the energy, and pressure, which is present in all members of differentiable equations are interpreted in the same way. In contrast, members of the convective flux of mass, momentum, energy evaluated at the old time step, that is, in explicit form. For discretization in space (axial) variable used ”chess” grid. The results of computational experiments are presented [ru

  4. Thermal Modeling of the Cooling History of a Basalt Lava Flow: Effect of Flow Shape and Thermal Perturbations Induced by Inflation Fissures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, C. J.; Kattenhorn, S. A.

    2003-12-01

    Thermal modeling of cooling basalt lava flows has typically been undertaken using 1-D analytical heat flow models for an infinite plane. In such models, flows are conceptualized as having a finite thickness, but are infinitely wide and infinitely long (i.e., "sheet flows"). These analytical models typically accounted only for conductive heat loss, or attempted to approximate the effect of a sudden convective heat loss by redefining the conduction boundary conditions at some point during the cooling history. Although such models have proven useful for the examination of sheet flows such as those of the Columbia River flood basalts, they are inadequate for considering the cooling history of low-volume flows having small (meters to a few 10s of meters) in-plane dimensions (i.e., small aspect ratios, or width/thickness). In such flows, cross-sectional flow shape exerts a strong control on the thermal evolution of the flow during cooling, and hence on the cooling fracture patterns that develop in response to thermal stresses. The advent of numerical thermal models has recently enabled other researchers to predict isotherm patterns in lava flows with in-plane lateral peripheries. We build on these numerical modeling efforts by examining the effect of variable flow shape on lava flow cooling history. We also explicitly model the effects of convective heat loss through inflation fissures that develop in response to inflation of the lava flow during extrusion. This choice of controlling factors is predicated by observations of flow shapes and fracture characteristics of low-volume basalt flows of the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), Idaho. We use the finite element code ABAQUS to model the thermal evolution of small aspect ratio flows, both with and without an inflation fissure. The program accounts for radiation of heat and convection at exposed boundaries, latent heat of crystallization, and conduction of heat into the underlying substrate. In models that do not include

  5. Numerical Predictions of Enhanced Impingement Jet Cooling with Ribs and Pins in Co-Flow and Cross-Flow Configurations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. El-Jummah

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Numerical calculations relevant to gas turbine internal wall heat transfer cooling were conducted using conjugate heat transfer (CHT computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD commercial codes. The CHT CFD predictions were carried out for impingement heat transfer with different types of obstacle walls (fins on the target surfaces. A 10 × 10 row of impingement air jet holes (or hole density n of 4306 m-2 was used, which gives ten rows of holes in the cross-flow direction and only one heat transfer enhancement obstacle per impingement jet was investigated. Previously, four different shaped obstacles were investigated experimentally and were used to validate the present predictions. The obstacle walls, which were equally spaced on the centreline between each impingement jet are of the co-flow and cross-flow configurations. The impingement jet pitch X to diameter D, X/D and gap Z to diameter, Z/D ratios were kept constant at 4.66 and 3.06 for X, Z and D of 15.24, 10.00 and 3.27 mm, respectively. The obstacles investigated were ribs and rectangular pin-fins shapes, using two obstacles height H to diameter, H/D ratio of 1.38 and 2.45. Computations were carried out for three different mass flux G of 1.08, 1.48 and 1.94 kg/sm2. Relative pressure loss ∆P/P and surface average heat transfer coefficient (HTC h predictions for the range of G, showed good agreement with the experimental results. The prediction also reveals that obstacles not only increases the turbulent flows, but also takes away most of the cooling heat transfer that produces the regions with highest thermal gradients. It also reduces the impingement gap downstream cross-flow.

  6. Coupling model and solving approach for performance evaluation of natural draft counter-flow wet cooling towers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Wei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available When searching for the optimum condenser cooling water flow in a thermal power plant with natural draft cooling towers, it is essential to evaluate the outlet water temperature of cooling towers when the cooling water flow and inlet water temperature change. However, the air outlet temperature and tower draft or inlet air velocity are strongly coupled for natural draft cooling towers. Traditional methods, such as trial and error method, graphic method and iterative methods are not simple and efficient enough to be used for plant practice. In this paper, we combine Merkel equation with draft equation, and develop the coupled description for performance evaluation of natural draft cooling towers. This model contains two inputs: the cooling water flow, the inlet cooling water temperature and two outputs: the outlet water temperature, the inlet air velocity, equivalent to tower draft. In this model, we furthermore put forward a soft-sensing algorithm to calculate the total drag coefficient instead of empirical correlations. Finally, we design an iterative approach to solve this coupling model, and illustrate three cases to prove that the coupling model and solving approach proposed in our paper are effective for cooling tower performance evaluation.

  7. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  8. Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binienda, Wieslaw K.

    1995-01-01

    Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.

  9. Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...

  10. Predictive Model Assessment for Count Data

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Czado, Claudia; Gneiting, Tilmann; Held, Leonhard

    2007-01-01

    .... In case studies, we critique count regression models for patent data, and assess the predictive performance of Bayesian age-period-cohort models for larynx cancer counts in Germany. Key words: Calibration...

  11. Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs......) for modeling and forecasting. It is argued that this gives models and predictions which better reflect reality. The SDE approach also offers a more adequate framework for modeling and a number of efficient tools for model building. A software package (CTSM-R) for SDE-based modeling is briefly described....... that describes the variation between subjects. The ODE setup implies that the variation for a single subject is described by a single parameter (or vector), namely the variance (covariance) of the residuals. Furthermore the prediction of the states is given as the solution to the ODEs and hence assumed...

  12. Cooling Simulation and Thermal Abuse Modeling of Lithium-Ion Batteries Using the Newman, Tiedemann, Gu, and Kim (NTGK) Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saeed Madani, Seyed; Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2017-01-01

    This paper gives insight into the cooling simulation and thermal abuse modeling of lithium-ion batteries by ANSYS FLUENT. Cooling strategies are important issues in the thermal management of lithium-ion battery systems, and it is essential to investigate them attentively in order to maintain...... the functioning temperature of batteries within an optimum range. The high temperature is able not only to decrease the efficiency of batteries but also may lead to the thermal runaway. To comprehend further, the thermal abuse behavior of lithium-ion batteries based on The Newman, Tiedemann, Gu, and Kim (NTGK......) model has been implemented in ANSYS FLUENT software. The results show that to achieve an optimum energy consumption for battery cooling, a minimum value of average heat transfer coefficient can be selected in order to keep the functioning temperature of batteries within an optimum range....

  13. Thermodynamic Data to Model the Interaction Between Coolant and Fuel in Gen IV Sodium Cooled Fast Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinsdale, Alan; Gisby, John; Davies, Hugh; Konings, Rudy; Benes, Ondrej

    2013-06-01

    Understanding the behaviour of nuclear fuels in various environments is vital to the design and safe operation of nuclear reactors. While this is true if the reactor is operating within its design specification, it is even more so if accidents occur and the fuel is exposed to unexpected temperatures, pressures or chemical environments. It is clearly hazardous and costly to explore all such scenarios experimentally and therefore it is necessary to undertake modelling where possible using well-grounded theoretical approaches. This paper will show examples of where calculations of chemical and phase equilibria have been applied successfully to the long term storage of nuclear waste, phase formation during core meltdown and prediction of fission product release into the atmosphere. It will also highlight the development of thermodynamic data carried out during the European Metrology Research Project Metrofission required to model the potential interaction between the coolant, nuclear fuel, containment materials and atmosphere of a sodium cooled fast reactor. (authors)

  14. A dynamic model of an innovative high-temperature solar heating and cooling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buonomano Annamaria

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a new simulation model of a novel solar heating and cooling system based on innovative high temperature flat plate evacuated solar thermal collector is presented. The system configuration includes: flat-plate evacuated solar collectors, a double-stage LiBr-H2O absorption chiller, gas-fired auxiliary heater, a closed loop cooling tower, pumps, heat exchangers, storage tanks, valves, mixers and controllers. The novelty of this study lies in the utilization of flat-plate stationary solar collectors, manufactured by TVP Solar, rather than concentrating ones (typically adopted for driving double-stage absorption chillers. Such devices show ultra-high thermal efficiencies, even at very high (about 200°C operating temperatures, thanks to the high vacuum insulation. Aim of the paper is to analyse the energy and economic feasibility of such novel technology, by including it in a prototypal solar heating and cooling system. For this purpose, the solar heating and cooling system design and performance were analysed by means of a purposely developed dynamic simulation model, implemented in TRNSYS. A suitable case study is also presented. Here, the simulated plant is conceived for the space heating and cooling and the domestic hot water production of a small building, whose energy needs are fulfilled through a real installation (settled also for experimental purposes built up close to Naples (South Italy. Simulation results show that the investigated system is able to reach high thermal efficiencies and very good energy performance. Finally, the economic analysis shows results comparable to those achieved through similar renewable energy systems.

  15. Predictive models for arteriovenous fistula maturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Shakarchi, Julien; McGrogan, Damian; Van der Veer, Sabine; Sperrin, Matthew; Inston, Nicholas

    2016-05-07

    Haemodialysis (HD) is a lifeline therapy for patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). A critical factor in the survival of renal dialysis patients is the surgical creation of vascular access, and international guidelines recommend arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) as the gold standard of vascular access for haemodialysis. Despite this, AVFs have been associated with high failure rates. Although risk factors for AVF failure have been identified, their utility for predicting AVF failure through predictive models remains unclear. The objectives of this review are to systematically and critically assess the methodology and reporting of studies developing prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes and assess them for suitability in clinical practice. Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes. Dual review was conducted to identify studies that reported on the development or validation of a model constructed to predict AVF outcome following creation. Data were extracted on study characteristics, risk predictors, statistical methodology, model type, as well as validation process. We included four different studies reporting five different predictive models. Parameters identified that were common to all scoring system were age and cardiovascular disease. This review has found a small number of predictive models in vascular access. The disparity between each study limits the development of a unified predictive model.

  16. Model Predictive Control Fundamentals | Orukpe | Nigerian Journal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Model Predictive Control (MPC) has developed considerably over the last two decades, both within the research control community and in industries. MPC strategy involves the optimization of a performance index with respect to some future control sequence, using predictions of the output signal based on a process model, ...

  17. Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optim...

  18. Review of the Technical Status on the Debris Bed Cooling Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Eui Kwang; Cho, Chung Ho; Lee, Yong Bum

    2007-09-01

    Preliminary safety analyses of the KALIMER-600 design have shown that the design has inherent safety characteristics and is capable of accommodating double-fault initiators such as ATWS events without coolant boiling or fuel melting. However, for the future design of sodium cooled fast reactor, the evaluation of the safety performance and the determination of containment requirements may be worth due consideration of triple-fault accident sequences of extremely low probability of occurrence that leads to core melting. For any postulated accident sequence which leads to core melting, in-vessel retention of the core debris will be required as a design requirement for the future design of sodium cooled fast reactor. Also, proof of the capacity of the debris bed cooling is an essential condition to solve the problem of in-vessel retention of the core debris. In this study, review of the technical status on the debris bed cooling model was carried out for in-vessel retention of the core debris

  19. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  20. Hybrid approaches to physiologic modeling and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olengü, Nicholas O.; Reifman, Jaques

    2005-05-01

    This paper explores how the accuracy of a first-principles physiological model can be enhanced by integrating data-driven, "black-box" models with the original model to form a "hybrid" model system. Both linear (autoregressive) and nonlinear (neural network) data-driven techniques are separately combined with a first-principles model to predict human body core temperature. Rectal core temperature data from nine volunteers, subject to four 30/10-minute cycles of moderate exercise/rest regimen in both CONTROL and HUMID environmental conditions, are used to develop and test the approach. The results show significant improvements in prediction accuracy, with average improvements of up to 30% for prediction horizons of 20 minutes. The models developed from one subject's data are also used in the prediction of another subject's core temperature. Initial results for this approach for a 20-minute horizon show no significant improvement over the first-principles model by itself.

  1. Design, Testing and Modeling of the Direct Reactor Auxiliary Cooling System for AHTRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv, Quiping; Sun, Xiaodong; Chtistensen, Richard; Blue, Thomas; Yoder, Graydon; Wilson, Dane

    2015-01-01

    The principal objective of this research is to test and model the heat transfer performance and reliability of the Direct Reactor Auxiliary Cooling System (DRACS) for AHTRs. In addition, component testing of fluidic diodes is to be performed to examine the performance and viability of several existing fluidic diode designs. An extensive database related to the thermal performance of the heat exchangers involved will be obtained, which will be used to benchmark a computer code for the DRACS design and to evaluate and improve, if needed, existing heat transfer models of interest. The database will also be valuable for assessing the viability of the DRACS concept and benchmarking any related computer codes in the future. The experience of making a liquid fluoride salt test facility available, with lessons learned, will greatly benefit the development of the Fluoride Salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) and eventually the AHTR programs.

  2. Performance modelling and simulation of an absorption solar cooling system for Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assilzadeh, F.; Ali, Y.; Kamaruzzaman Sopian

    2006-01-01

    Solar radiation contains huge amounts of energy and is required for almost all the natural processes on earth. Solar-powered air-conditioning has many advantages when compared to normal electricity system. This paper presents a solar cooling system that has been designed for Malaysia and other tropical regions using evacuated tube solar collector and LiBr absorption system. A modelling and simulation of absorption solar cooling system is modeled in Transient System Simulation (TRNSYS) environment. The typical meteorological year file containing the weather parameters is used to simulate the system. Then a system optimization is carried out in order to select the appropriate type of collector, the optimum size of storage tank, the optimum collector slope and area and the optimum thermostat setting of the auxiliary boiler

  3. Design, Testing and Modeling of the Direct Reactor Auxiliary Cooling System for AHTRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lv, Quiping [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Sun, Xiaodong [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Chtistensen, Richard [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Blue, Thomas [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Yoder, Graydon [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wilson, Dane [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-05-08

    The principal objective of this research is to test and model the heat transfer performance and reliability of the Direct Reactor Auxiliary Cooling System (DRACS) for AHTRs. In addition, component testing of fluidic diodes is to be performed to examine the performance and viability of several existing fluidic diode designs. An extensive database related to the thermal performance of the heat exchangers involved will be obtained, which will be used to benchmark a computer code for the DRACS design and to evaluate and improve, if needed, existing heat transfer models of interest. The database will also be valuable for assessing the viability of the DRACS concept and benchmarking any related computer codes in the future. The experience of making a liquid fluoride salt test facility available, with lessons learned, will greatly benefit the development of the Fluoride Salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) and eventually the AHTR programs.

  4. Development and verification of the LIFE-GCFR computer code for predicting gas-cooled fast-reactor fuel-rod performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsieh, T.C.; Billone, M.C.; Rest, J.

    1982-03-01

    The fuel-pin modeling code LIFE-GCFR has been developed to predict the thermal, mechanical, and fission-gas behavior of a Gas-Cooled Fast Reactor (GCFR) fuel rod under normal operating conditions. It consists of three major components: thermal, mechanical, and fission-gas analysis. The thermal analysis includes calculations of coolant, cladding, and fuel temperature; fuel densification; pore migration; fuel grain growth; and plenum pressure. Fuel mechanical analysis includes thermal expansion, elasticity, creep, fission-product swelling, hot pressing, cracking, and crack healing of fuel; and thermal expansion, elasticity, creep, and irradiation-induced swelling of cladding. Fission-gas analysis simultaneously treats all major mechanisms thought to influence fission-gas behavior, which include bubble nucleation, resolution, diffusion, migration, and coalescence; temperature and temperature gradients; and fission-gas interaction with structural defects

  5. Numerical Prediction and Performance Experiment in an Engine Cooling Water Pump with Different Blade Outlet Widths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Changing the blade outlet width is an important method to adjust the performance curves of centrifugal pumps. In this study, three impellers with different blade outlet widths in an engine cooling water pump (ECWP were numerically simulated based on ANSYS-CFX software. Numerical calculation reliability was validated based on the comparison between simulation results and experimental datum. As the blade outlet width increases, from the performance curves, the investigated ECWP head increases gradually; and the best efficiency point (BEP offsets to larger flow rate; and the high efficiency region (HER is becoming larger; and the critical cavitation pressure of the investigated ECWP at BEP increases, which indicates that the cavitation performance at BEP became worse. Compared with the internal flow field, we find vortex appears mainly in the blade passage near the tongue and volute outlet, and the region of the low static pressure is located in the blade inlet suction surface, and impeller inlet and outlet are the regions of high turbulence kinetic energy. Meanwhile, at the same flow rate, with the increase of blade outlet width, the areas of vortex and low static pressure become obvious and bigger.

  6. Dynamic equation-based thermo-hydraulic pipe model for district heating and cooling systems

    OpenAIRE

    van der Heijde, Bram; Fuchs, Marcus; Ribas Tugores, Carles; Schweiger, Gerald; Sartor, Kevin; Basciotti, Daniele; Müller, Dirk; Nytsch-Geusen, Christoph; Wetter, Michael; Helsen, Lieve

    2017-01-01

    Simulation and optimisation of district heating and cooling networks requires efficient and realistic models of the individual network elements in order to correctly represent heat losses or gains, temperature propagation and pressure drops. Due to more recent thermal networks incorporating meshing decentralised heat and cold sources, the system often has to deal with variable temperatures and mass flow rates, with flow reversal occurring more frequently. This paper presents the mathematical ...

  7. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  8. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  9. Laser cooling of the AlCl molecule with a three-electronic-level theoretical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Mingjie; Yuan, Di; Jin, Chengguo; Wang, Fanhou; Yang, Yujie; Yu, You; Shao, Juxiang

    2016-07-14

    Feasibility of laser-cooling AlCl molecule is investigated using ab initio quantum chemistry. Potential energy curves, permanent dipole moments, and transition dipole moments for the X(1)Σ(+), a(3)Π, and A(1)Π states are studied based on multi-reference configuration interaction plus Davidson corrections (MRCI+Q) method with ACVQZ basis set, spin-orbit coupling effects are considered at the MRCI+Q level. Highly diagonally distributed Franck-Condon factors (f00 = 0.9988 and f11 = 0.9970) and branching ratios (R00 = 0.9965, R01 = 2.85 × 10(-3), R02 = 6.35 × 10(-4), and R03 = 2.05 × 10(-6)) for the A(1)Π1(ν(')=0)→X(1)Σ0(+) (+)(ν(″)=0) transition are determined. A sufficiently radiative lifetime τ (A(1)Π1) = 4.99 ns is predicted for rapid laser cooling. The proposed cooling wavelength is deep in the ultraviolet region at λ00 = 261.75 nm. Total emission rates for the a(3)Π0(+) →X(1)Σ0(+) (+), a(3)Π1→X(1)Σ0(+) (+), A(1)Π1 → a(3)Π0(+) , and A(1)Π1 → a(3)Π1 transitions are particularly small (∼10 s(-1)-650 s(-1)). The calculated vibrational branching loss ratio to the intermediate a(3)Π0(+) and a(3)Π1 states can be negligible. The results imply the probability of laser cooling AlCl molecule with three-electronic-level.

  10. THATCH: A computer code for modelling thermal networks of high- temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kroeger, P.G.; Kennett, R.J.; Colman, J.; Ginsberg, T. (Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States))

    1991-10-01

    This report documents the THATCH code, which can be used to model general thermal and flow networks of solids and coolant channels in two-dimensional r-z geometries. The main application of THATCH is to model reactor thermo-hydraulic transients in High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs). The available modules simulate pressurized or depressurized core heatup transients, heat transfer to general exterior sinks or to specific passive Reactor Cavity Cooling Systems, which can be air or water-cooled. Graphite oxidation during air or water ingress can be modelled, including the effects of added combustion products to the gas flow and the additional chemical energy release. A point kinetics model is available for analyzing reactivity excursions; for instance due to water ingress, and also for hypothetical no-scram scenarios. For most HTGR transients, which generally range over hours, a user-selected nodalization of the core in r-z geometry is used. However, a separate model of heat transfer in the symmetry element of each fuel element is also available for very rapid transients. This model can be applied coupled to the traditional coarser r-z nodalization. This report described the mathematical models used in the code and the method of solution. It describes the code and its various sub-elements. Details of the input data and file usage, with file formats, is given for the code, as well as for several preprocessing and postprocessing options. The THATCH model of the currently applicable 350 MW{sub th} reactor is described. Input data for four sample cases are given with output available in fiche form. Installation requirements and code limitations, as well as the most common error indications are listed. 31 refs., 23 figs., 32 tabs.

  11. A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaminos, David; Del Castillo, Agustín; Fernández, Manuel Ángel

    2016-01-01

    The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy.

  12. Predictive model for ice formation on superhydrophobic surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahadur, Vaibhav; Mishchenko, Lidiya; Hatton, Benjamin; Taylor, J Ashley; Aizenberg, Joanna; Krupenkin, Tom

    2011-12-06

    The prevention and control of ice accumulation has important applications in aviation, building construction, and energy conversion devices. One area of active research concerns the use of superhydrophobic surfaces for preventing ice formation. The present work develops a physics-based modeling framework to predict ice formation on cooled superhydrophobic surfaces resulting from the impact of supercooled water droplets. This modeling approach analyzes the multiple phenomena influencing ice formation on superhydrophobic surfaces through the development of submodels describing droplet impact dynamics, heat transfer, and heterogeneous ice nucleation. These models are then integrated together to achieve a comprehensive understanding of ice formation upon impact of liquid droplets at freezing conditions. The accuracy of this model is validated by its successful prediction of the experimental findings that demonstrate that superhydrophobic surfaces can fully prevent the freezing of impacting water droplets down to surface temperatures of as low as -20 to -25 °C. The model can be used to study the influence of surface morphology, surface chemistry, and fluid and thermal properties on dynamic ice formation and identify parameters critical to achieving icephobic surfaces. The framework of the present work is the first detailed modeling tool developed for the design and analysis of surfaces for various ice prevention/reduction strategies. © 2011 American Chemical Society

  13. Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah

    2015-07-01

    Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  14. Reliability analysis of nuclear component cooling water system using semi-Markov process model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veeramany, Arun; Pandey, Mahesh D.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → Semi-Markov process (SMP) model is used to evaluate system failure probability of the nuclear component cooling water (NCCW) system. → SMP is used because it can solve reliability block diagram with a mixture of redundant repairable and non-repairable components. → The primary objective is to demonstrate that SMP can consider Weibull failure time distribution for components while a Markov model cannot → Result: the variability in component failure time is directly proportional to the NCCW system failure probability. → The result can be utilized as an initiating event probability in probabilistic safety assessment projects. - Abstract: A reliability analysis of nuclear component cooling water (NCCW) system is carried out. Semi-Markov process model is used in the analysis because it has potential to solve a reliability block diagram with a mixture of repairable and non-repairable components. With Markov models it is only possible to assume an exponential profile for component failure times. An advantage of the proposed model is the ability to assume Weibull distribution for the failure time of components. In an attempt to reduce the number of states in the model, it is shown that usage of poly-Weibull distribution arises. The objective of the paper is to determine system failure probability under these assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is used to validate the model result. This result can be utilized as an initiating event probability in probabilistic safety assessment projects.

  15. Coupled climate model simulation of Holocene cooling events: oceanic feedback amplifies solar forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Renssen

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The coupled global atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE is used to perform transient simulations of the last 9000 years, forced by variations in orbital parameters, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and total solar irradiance (TSI. The objective is to study the impact of decadal-to-centennial scale TSI variations on Holocene climate variability. The simulations show that negative TSI anomalies increase the probability of temporary relocations of the site with deepwater formation in the Nordic Seas, causing an expansion of sea ice that produces additional cooling. The consequence is a characteristic climatic anomaly pattern with cooling over most of the North Atlantic region that is consistent with proxy evidence for Holocene cold phases. Our results thus suggest that the ocean is able to play an important role in amplifying centennial-scale climate variability.

  16. A novel methodology to model the cooling processes of packed horticultural produce using 3D shape models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruyters, Willem; Verboven, Pieter; Rogge, Seppe; Vanmaercke, Simon; Ramon, Herman; Nicolai, Bart

    2017-10-01

    Freshly harvested horticultural produce require a proper temperature management to maintain their high economic value. Towards this end, low temperature storage is of crucial importance to maintain a high product quality. Optimizing both the package design of packed produce and the different steps in the postharvest cold chain can be achieved by numerical modelling of the relevant transport phenomena. This work presents a novel methodology to accurately model both the random filling of produce in a package and the subsequent cooling process. First, a cultivar-specific database of more than 100 realistic CAD models of apple and pear fruit is built with a validated geometrical 3D shape model generator. To have an accurate representation of a realistic picking season, the model generator also takes into account the biological variability of the produce shape. Next, a discrete element model (DEM) randomly chooses surface meshed bodies from the database to simulate the gravitational filling process of produce in a box or bin, using actual mechanical properties of the fruit. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is then developed with the final stacking arrangement of the produce to study the cooling efficiency of packages under several conditions and configurations. Here, a typical precooling operation is simulated to demonstrate the large differences between using actual 3D shapes of the fruit and an equivalent spheres approach that simplifies the problem drastically. From this study, it is concluded that using a simplified representation of the actual fruit shape may lead to a severe overestimation of the cooling behaviour.

  17. Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...

  18. Plant physiological models of heat, water and photoinhibition stress for climate change modelling and agricultural prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, B.; Gilbert, M. E.; Paw U, K. T.

    2015-12-01

    Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) models are based upon well understood steady state photosynthetic physiology - the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model (FvCB). However, representations of physiological stress and damage have not been successfully integrated into SVAT models. Generally, it has been assumed that plants will strive to conserve water at higher temperatures by reducing stomatal conductance or adjusting osmotic balance, until potentially damaging temperatures and the need for evaporative cooling become more important than water conservation. A key point is that damage is the result of combined stresses: drought leads to stomatal closure, less evaporative cooling, high leaf temperature, less photosynthetic dissipation of absorbed energy, all coupled with high light (photosynthetic photon flux density; PPFD). This leads to excess absorbed energy by Photosystem II (PSII) and results in photoinhibition and damage, neither are included in SVAT models. Current representations of photoinhibition are treated as a function of PPFD, not as a function of constrained photosynthesis under heat or water. Thus, it seems unlikely that current models can predict responses of vegetation to climate variability and change. We propose a dynamic model of damage to Rubisco and RuBP-regeneration that accounts, mechanistically, for the interactions between high temperature, light, and constrained photosynthesis under drought. Further, these predictions are illustrated by key experiments allowing model validation. We also integrated this new framework within the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA). Preliminary results show that our approach can be used to predict reasonable photosynthetic dynamics. For instances, a leaf undergoing one day of drought stress will quickly decrease its maximum quantum yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), but it won't recover to unstressed levels for several days. Consequently, cumulative effect of photoinhibition on photosynthesis can cause

  19. Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...

  20. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  10. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  11. A 3D CFD Modelling Study of a Diesel Oil Evaporation Device Operating in the Stabilized Cool Flame Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dionysios I. Kolaitis

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Diesel fuel is used in a variety of technological applications due to its high energy density and ease of distribution and storage. Motivated by the need to use novel fuel utilization techniques, such as porous burners and fuel cells, which have to be fed with a gaseous fuel, a Diesel fuel evaporation device, operating in the “Stabilized Cool Flame” (SCF regime, is numerically investigated. In this device, a thermo-chemically stable low-temperature oxidative environment is developed, which produces a well-mixed, heated air-fuel vapour gaseous mixture that can be subsequently fed either to premixed combustion systems or fuel reformer devices for fuel cell applications. In this work, the ANSYS CFX 11.0 CFD code is used to simulate the three-dimensional, turbulent, two-phase, multi-component and reacting flow-field, developed in a SCF evaporation device. An innovative modelling approach, based on the fitting parameter concept, has been developed in order to simulate cool flame reactions. The model, based on physico-chemical reasoning coupled with information from available experimental data, is implemented in the CFD code and is validated by comparing numerical predictions to experimental data obtained from an atmospheric pressure, recirculating flow SCF device. Numerical predictions are compared with temperature measurements, achieving satisfactory levels of agreement. The developed numerical tool can effectively support the theoretical study of the physical and chemical phenomena emerging in practical devices of liquid fuel spray evaporation in a SCF environment, as well as the design optimisation process of such innovative devices.

  12. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  13. Modeling the effects of cooling rate, hydrogen content, grain refiner and modifier on microporosity formation in Al A356 alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conley, J.G.; Huang, J.; Asada, J.; Akiba, K. [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2000-06-15

    Cast Aluminum-Silicon alloys are used in numerous automotive and industrial weight sensitive applications because of their low density and excellent castability. The presence of trapped gas and or shrinkage pores in certain locations within castings has been shown to influence fatigue life. These micromechanical defects can be found most anywhere in a casting depending on processing conditions. A large amount of porosity located in the center of the cast material thickness may have no effect on mechanical properties or fatigue performance. A smaller, isolated pore near a surface may have a significant impact on mechanical properties. Hence, it is important to develop a comprehensive model to predict the size, location and distribution of microporosity in castings. In this work, we model the effect of various casting process parameters on microporosity formation for aluminum A356 alloy castings. The process parameters include cooling rate, hydrogen content, grain refiner and modifier. The proposed two-dimensional model predicts the size, morphology and distribution of microporosity at a given location in the casting. The method couples a mathematical model of porosity evolution with a probabilistic grain structure prediction model. The porosity evolution model is based on the simultaneous solution of the continuity and momentum equations for the metal and the mass conservation equation for the dissolved gas. The nucleation and growth of grains are simulated with a probabilistic method that uses the information from a heat transfer simulation, i.e. temperature and solid fraction, to determine the transition rules for grain evolution. The simulation results correlate well with experimental observation of porosity in cast structures. (orig.)

  14. Modeling and Validation of Sodium Plugging for Heat Exchangers in Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferroni, Paolo [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, Cranberry Township, PA (United States). Global Technology Development; Tatli, Emre [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, Cranberry Township, PA (United States); Czerniak, Luke [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, Cranberry Township, PA (United States); Sienicki, James J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Chien, Hual-Te [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Yoichi, Momozaki [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bakhtiari, Sasan [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-06-29

    The project “Modeling and Validation of Sodium Plugging for Heat Exchangers in Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor Systems” was conducted jointly by Westinghouse Electric Company (Westinghouse) and Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), over the period October 1, 2013- March 31, 2016. The project’s motivation was the need to provide designers of Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs) with a validated, state-of-the-art computational tool for the prediction of sodium oxide (Na2O) deposition in small-diameter sodium heat exchanger (HX) channels, such as those in the diffusion bonded HXs proposed for SFRs coupled with a supercritical CO2 (sCO2) Brayton cycle power conversion system. In SFRs, Na2O deposition can potentially occur following accidental air ingress in the intermediate heat transport system (IHTS) sodium and simultaneous failure of the IHTS sodium cold trap. In this scenario, oxygen can travel through the IHTS loop and reach the coldest regions, represented by the cold end of the sodium channels of the HXs, where Na2O precipitation may initiate and continue. In addition to deteriorating HX heat transfer and pressure drop performance, Na2O deposition can lead to channel plugging especially when the size of the sodium channels is small, which is the case for diffusion bonded HXs whose sodium channel hydraulic diameter is generally below 5 mm. Sodium oxide melts at a high temperature well above the sodium melting temperature such that removal of a solid plug such as through dissolution by pure sodium could take a lengthy time. The Sodium Plugging Phenomena Loop (SPPL) was developed at ANL, prior to this project, for investigating Na2O deposition phenomena within sodium channels that are prototypical of the diffusion bonded HX channels envisioned for SFR-sCO2 systems. In this project, a Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) model capable of simulating the thermal-hydraulics of the SPPL test

  15. General correlation for prediction of critical heat flux ratio in water cooled channels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pernica, R.; Cizek, J.

    1995-09-01

    The paper present the general empirical Critical Heat Flux Ration (CHFR) correlation which is valid for vertical water upflow through tubes, internally heated concentric annuli and rod bundles geometries with both wide and very tight square and triangular rods lattices. The proposed general PG correlation directly predicts the CHFR, it comprises axial and radial non-uniform heating, and is valid in a wider range of thermal hydraulic conditions than previously published critical heat flux correlations. The PG correlation has been developed using the critical heat flux Czech data bank which includes more than 9500 experimental data on tubes, 7600 data on rod bundles and 713 data on internally heated concentric annuli. Accuracy of the CHFR prediction, statistically assessed by the constant dryout conditions approach, is characterized by the mean value nearing 1.00 and the standard deviation less than 0.06. Moverover, a subchannel form of the PG correlations is statistically verified on Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering rod bundle data bases, i.e. more than 7000 experimental CHF points of Columbia University data bank were used.

  16. Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963

  17. Multiple Steps Prediction with Nonlinear ARX Models

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Qinghua; Ljung, Lennart

    2007-01-01

    NLARX (NonLinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs) models are frequently used in black-box nonlinear system identication. Though it is easy to make one step ahead prediction with such models, multiple steps prediction is far from trivial. The main difficulty is that in general there is no easy way to compute the mathematical expectation of an output conditioned by past measurements. An optimal solution would require intensive numerical computations related to nonlinear filltering. The pur...

  18. Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sterk

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.

  19. Cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutant, C.C.

    1978-01-01

    Progress on the thermal effects project is reported with regard to physiology and distribution of Corbicula; power plant effects studies on burrowing mayfly populations; comparative thermal responses of largemouth bass from northern and southern populations; temperature selection by striped bass in Cherokee Reservoir; fish population studies; and predictive thermoregulation by fishes. Progress is also reported on the following; cause and ecological ramifications of threadfin shad impingement; entrainment project; aquaculture project; pathogenic amoeba project; and cooling tower drift project

  20. Reliability of Early and Final Counts in Cold and Cool Germination Tests for Predicting Maize Seed Vigour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Noli

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Cold test (CT is widely used in maize for predicting field performance in early sowing, even though it is rather labour intensive and requires almost two weeks to complete. The objective of this work was to examine alternative procedures to CT suitable for routine testing. Standard germination (SG, CT and cool germination (CG were carried out on 24 maize lots chosen with high (> 85% SG. For the three tests, besides the final count of normal seedlings, early counts of germinated seeds were made. Lots were evaluated in two field trials (six replicates each sowed at a very early and early date. For all the laboratory traits, the differences among lots were significant and attained higher values in the early counts compared to the final ones. Moreover, the correlations were high between early counts performed during the three tests but were in general lower between early and final counts. Early counts showed lower correlations with field performance than the final ones, except for the count at 144 h during CG that attained a correlation level with field emergence (r = 0.81 similar to the final counts of CG and CT. Nonetheless, the evaluation of seedling vigour during the final count of CT showed the highest predictive value of field performance. All the laboratory measures were in close agreement with field performance when the latter was evaluated under less unfavourable conditions.

  1. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N. C.; Savenije, H. H. G.

    2008-12-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore needed. We compare three model complexity control methods for hydrologic prediction, namely, cross validation (CV), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and structural risk minimization (SRM). Results show that simulation of water flow using non-physically-based models (polynomials in this case) leads to increasingly better calibration fits as the model complexity (polynomial order) increases. However, prediction uncertainty worsens for complex non-physically-based models because of overfitting of noisy data. Incorporation of physically based constraints into the model (e.g., storage-discharge relationship) effectively bounds prediction uncertainty, even as the number of parameters increases. The conclusion is that overparameterization and equifinality do not lead to a continued increase in prediction uncertainty, as long as models are constrained by such physical principles. Complexity control of hydrologic models reduces parameter equifinality and identifies the simplest model that adequately explains the data, thereby providing a means of hydrologic generalization and classification. SRM is a promising technique for this purpose, as it (1) provides analytic upper bounds on prediction uncertainty, hence avoiding the computational burden of CV, and (2) extends the applicability of classic methods such as AIC to finite data. The main hurdle in applying SRM is the need for an a priori estimation of the complexity of the hydrologic model, as measured by its Vapnik-Chernovenkis (VC) dimension. Further research is needed in this area.

  2. A STRONGLY COUPLED REACTOR CORE ISOLATION COOLING SYSTEM MODEL FOR EXTENDED STATION BLACK-OUT ANALYSES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Haihua [Idaho National Laboratory; Zhang, Hongbin [Idaho National Laboratory; Zou, Ling [Idaho National Laboratory; Martineau, Richard Charles [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-03-01

    The reactor core isolation cooling (RCIC) system in a boiling water reactor (BWR) provides makeup cooling water to the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) when the main steam lines are isolated and the normal supply of water to the reactor vessel is lost. The RCIC system operates independently of AC power, service air, or external cooling water systems. The only required external energy source is from the battery to maintain the logic circuits to control the opening and/or closure of valves in the RCIC systems in order to control the RPV water level by shutting down the RCIC pump to avoid overfilling the RPV and flooding the steam line to the RCIC turbine. It is generally considered in almost all the existing station black-out accidents (SBO) analyses that loss of the DC power would result in overfilling the steam line and allowing liquid water to flow into the RCIC turbine, where it is assumed that the turbine would then be disabled. This behavior, however, was not observed in the Fukushima Daiichi accidents, where the Unit 2 RCIC functioned without DC power for nearly three days. Therefore, more detailed mechanistic models for RCIC system components are needed to understand the extended SBO for BWRs. As part of the effort to develop the next generation reactor system safety analysis code RELAP-7, we have developed a strongly coupled RCIC system model, which consists of a turbine model, a pump model, a check valve model, a wet well model, and their coupling models. Unlike the traditional SBO simulations where mass flow rates are typically given in the input file through time dependent functions, the real mass flow rates through the turbine and the pump loops in our model are dynamically calculated according to conservation laws and turbine/pump operation curves. A simplified SBO demonstration RELAP-7 model with this RCIC model has been successfully developed. The demonstration model includes the major components for the primary system of a BWR, as well as the safety

  3. Analysis of a combined heating and cooling system model under different operating strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzierzgowski, Mieczysław; Zwierzchowski, Ryszard

    2017-11-01

    The paper presents an analysis of a combined heating and cooling system model under different operating strategies. Cooling demand for air conditioning purposes has grown steadily in Poland since the early 1990s. The main clients are large office buildings and shopping malls in downtown locations. Increased demand for heat in the summer would mitigate a number of problems regarding District Heating System (DHS) operation at minimum power, affecting the average annual price of heat (in summertime the share of costs related to transport losses is a strong cost factor). In the paper, computer simulations were performed for different supply network water temperature, assuming as input, real changes in the parameters of the DHS (heat demand, flow rates, etc.). On the basis of calculations and taking into account investment costs of the Absorption Refrigeration System (ARS) and the Thermal Energy Storage (TES) system, an optimal capacity of the TES system was proposed to ensure smooth and efficient operation of the District Heating Plant (DHP). Application of ARS with the TES system in the DHS in question increases net profit by 19.4%, reducing the cooling price for consumers by 40%.

  4. Quantifying predictive accuracy in survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lirette, Seth T; Aban, Inmaculada

    2017-12-01

    For time-to-event outcomes in medical research, survival models are the most appropriate to use. Unlike logistic regression models, quantifying the predictive accuracy of these models is not a trivial task. We present the classes of concordance (C) statistics and R 2 statistics often used to assess the predictive ability of these models. The discussion focuses on Harrell's C, Kent and O'Quigley's R 2 , and Royston and Sauerbrei's R 2 . We present similarities and differences between the statistics, discuss the software options from the most widely used statistical analysis packages, and give a practical example using the Worcester Heart Attack Study dataset.

  5. Predictive power of nuclear-mass models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. A. Litvinov

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Ten different theoretical models are tested for their predictive power in the description of nuclear masses. Two sets of experimental masses are used for the test: the older set of 2003 and the newer one of 2011. The predictive power is studied in two regions of nuclei: the global region (Z, N ≥ 8 and the heavy-nuclei region (Z ≥ 82, N ≥ 126. No clear correlation is found between the predictive power of a model and the accuracy of its description of the masses.

  6. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  7. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents recent thermal model results of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG). The three-dimensional (3D) ASRG thermal power model was built using the Thermal Desktop(trademark) thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's (LM's) I-deas(trademark) TMG thermal model. The auxiliary cooling system (ACS) of the ASRG is also included in the ASRG thermal model. The ACS is designed to remove waste heat from the ASRG so that it can be used to heat spacecraft components. The performance of the ACS is reported under nominal conditions and during a Venus flyby scenario. The results for the nominal case are validated with data from Lockheed Martin. Transient thermal analysis results of ASRG for a Venus flyby with a representative trajectory are also presented. In addition, model results of an ASRG mounted on a Cassini-like spacecraft with a sunshade are presented to show a way to mitigate the high temperatures of a Venus flyby. It was predicted that the sunshade can lower the temperature of the ASRG alternator by 20 C for the representative Venus flyby trajectory. The 3D model also was modified to predict generator performance after a single Advanced Stirling Convertor failure. The geometry of the Microtherm HT insulation block on the outboard side was modified to match deformation and shrinkage observed during testing of a prototypic ASRG test fixture by LM. Test conditions and test data were used to correlate the model by adjusting the thermal conductivity of the deformed insulation to match the post-heat-dump steady state temperatures. Results for these conditions showed that the performance of the still-functioning inboard ACS was unaffected.

  8. Ex vivo investigations of laser auricular cartilage reshaping with carbon dioxide spray cooling in a rabbit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Edward C; Sun, Victor; Manuel, Cyrus T; Protsenko, Dmitriy E; Jia, Wangcun; Nelson, J Stuart; Wong, Brian J F

    2013-11-01

    Laser cartilage reshaping (LCR) with cryogen spray cooling is a promising modality for producing cartilage shape change while reducing cutaneous thermal injury. However, LCR in thicker tissues, such as auricular cartilage, requires higher laser power, thus increasing cooling requirements. To eliminate the risks of freeze injury characteristic of high cryogen spray pulse rates, a carbon dioxide (CO2) spray, which evaporates rapidly from the skin, has been proposed as the cooling medium. This study aims to identify parameter sets which produce clinically significant reshaping while producing minimal skin thermal injury in LCR with CO2 spray cooling in ex vivo rabbit auricular cartilage. Excised whole rabbit ears were mechanically deformed around a cylindrical jig and irradiated with a 1.45-μm wavelength diode laser (fluence 12-14 J/cm(2) per pulse, four to six pulse cycles per irradiation site, five to six irradiation sites per row for four rows on each sample) with concomitant application of CO2 spray (pulse duration 33-85 ms) to the skin surface. Bend angle measurements were performed before and after irradiation, and the change quantified. Surface temperature distributions were measured during irradiation/cooling. Maximum skin surface temperature ranged between 49.0 to 97.6 °C following four heating/cooling cycles. Significant reshaping was achieved with all laser dosimetry values with a 50-70 °C difference noted between controls (no cooling) and irradiated ears. Increasing cooling pulse duration yielded progressively improved gross skin protection during irradiation. CO2 spray cooling may potentially serve as an alternative to traditional cryogen spray cooling in LCR and may be the preferred cooling medium for thicker tissues. Future studies evaluating preclinical efficacy in an in vivo rabbit model are in progress.

  9. Ex vivo investigations of laser auricular cartilage reshaping with carbon dioxide spray cooling in a rabbit model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Edward C.; Sun, Victor; Manuel, Cyrus T.; Protsenko, Dmitriy E.; Jia, Wangcun; Nelson, J. Stuart; Wong, Brian J. F.

    2014-01-01

    Laser cartilage reshaping (LCR) with cryogen spray cooling is a promising modality for producing cartilage shape change while reducing cutaneous thermal injury. However, LCR in thicker tissues, such as auricular cartilage, requires higher laser power, thus increasing cooling requirements. To eliminate the risks of freeze injury characteristic of high cryogen spray pulse rates, a carbon dioxide (CO2) spray, which evaporates rapidly from the skin, has been proposed as the cooling medium. This study aims to identify parameter sets which produce clinically significant reshaping while producing minimal skin thermal injury in LCR with CO2 spray cooling in ex vivo rabbit auricular cartilage. Excised whole rabbit ears were mechanically deformed around a cylindrical jig and irradiated with a 1.45-μm wavelength diode laser (fluence 12–14 J/cm2 per pulse, four to six pulse cycles per irradiation site, five to six irradiation sites per row for four rows on each sample) with concomitant application of CO2 spray (pulse duration 33–85 ms) to the skin surface. Bend angle measurements were performed before and after irradiation, and the change quantified. Surface temperature distributions were measured during irradiation/cooling. Maximum skin surface temperature ranged between 49.0 to 97.6 °C following four heating/cooling cycles. Significant reshaping was achieved with all laser dosimetry values with a 50–70 °C difference noted between controls (no cooling) and irradiated ears. Increasing cooling pulse duration yielded progressively improved gross skin protection during irradiation. CO2 spray cooling may potentially serve as an alternative to traditional cryogen spray cooling in LCR and may be the preferred cooling medium for thicker tissues. Future studies evaluating preclinical efficacy in an in vivo rabbit model are in progress. PMID:23307439

  10. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  11. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  12. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  13. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  14. Posterior predictive checking of multiple imputation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Cattram D; Lee, Katherine J; Carlin, John B

    2015-07-01

    Multiple imputation is gaining popularity as a strategy for handling missing data, but there is a scarcity of tools for checking imputation models, a critical step in model fitting. Posterior predictive checking (PPC) has been recommended as an imputation diagnostic. PPC involves simulating "replicated" data from the posterior predictive distribution of the model under scrutiny. Model fit is assessed by examining whether the analysis from the observed data appears typical of results obtained from the replicates produced by the model. A proposed diagnostic measure is the posterior predictive "p-value", an extreme value of which (i.e., a value close to 0 or 1) suggests a misfit between the model and the data. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the posterior predictive p-value as an imputation diagnostic. Using simulation methods, we deliberately misspecified imputation models to determine whether posterior predictive p-values were effective in identifying these problems. When estimating the regression parameter of interest, we found that more extreme p-values were associated with poorer imputation model performance, although the results highlighted that traditional thresholds for classical p-values do not apply in this context. A shortcoming of the PPC method was its reduced ability to detect misspecified models with increasing amounts of missing data. Despite the limitations of posterior predictive p-values, they appear to have a valuable place in the imputer's toolkit. In addition to automated checking using p-values, we recommend imputers perform graphical checks and examine other summaries of the test quantity distribution. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  15. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  16. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....

  17. Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isye Arieshanti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

  18. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  19. Climate Model Simulations of Tropical and Polar Stratospheric Aerosol Injection: Cooling but Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.; Oman, L.; Stenchikov, G.

    2007-12-01

    In response to the global warming problem, there has been a recent renewed call for geoengineering "solutions" involving injecting particles into the stratosphere or blocking sunlight with satellites between the Sun and Earth. Here we describe different proposed geoengineering designs, and then show climate model calculations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean NASA GISS ModelE GCM that evaluate both their efficacy and their possible adverse consequences. We conduct experiments by simulating global warming with and without continuous emissions of sulfate aerosol precursors both into the tropical lower stratosphere and into the high latitude Northern Hemisphere lower stratosphere. We find that while stratospheric aerosols can cool the planet on a global average basis with tropical emissions or cool the Northern Hemisphere with high latitude emissions, there are also large regional climate changes in temperature and precipitation, with large areas of drought. At the current level of understanding, there are too many potential problems with geoengineering, and it would be much cheaper and easier to solve the global warming problem by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These problems include cost, continued ocean acidification, obtaining global agreement on the optimum climate, regional climate changes, ozone depletion, reduction of solar energy for power generation, and unexpected consequences.

  20. Are animal models predictive for humans?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greek Ray

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract It is one of the central aims of the philosophy of science to elucidate the meanings of scientific terms and also to think critically about their application. The focus of this essay is the scientific term predict and whether there is credible evidence that animal models, especially in toxicology and pathophysiology, can be used to predict human outcomes. Whether animals can be used to predict human response to drugs and other chemicals is apparently a contentious issue. However, when one empirically analyzes animal models using scientific tools they fall far short of being able to predict human responses. This is not surprising considering what we have learned from fields such evolutionary and developmental biology, gene regulation and expression, epigenetics, complexity theory, and comparative genomics.

  1. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.

  2. Monte Carlo modeling of Lead-Cooled Fast Reactor in adiabatic equilibrium state

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanisz, Przemysław, E-mail: pstanisz@agh.edu.pl; Oettingen, Mikołaj, E-mail: moettin@agh.edu.pl; Cetnar, Jerzy, E-mail: cetnar@mail.ftj.agh.edu.pl

    2016-05-15

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • We present the Monte Carlo modeling of the LFR in the adiabatic equilibrium state. • We assess the adiabatic equilibrium fuel composition using the MCB code. • We define the self-adjusting process of breeding gain by the control rod operation. • The designed LFR can work in the adiabatic cycle with zero fuel breeding. - Abstract: Nuclear power would appear to be the only energy source able to satisfy the global energy demand while also achieving a significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, it can provide a stable and secure source of electricity, and plays an important role in many European countries. However, nuclear power generation from its birth has been doomed by the legacy of radioactive nuclear waste. In addition, the looming decrease in the available resources of fissile U235 may influence the future sustainability of nuclear energy. The integrated solution to both problems is not trivial, and postulates the introduction of a closed-fuel cycle strategy based on breeder reactors. The perfect choice of a novel reactor system fulfilling both requirements is the Lead-Cooled Fast Reactor operating in the adiabatic equilibrium state. In such a state, the reactor converts depleted or natural uranium into plutonium while consuming any self-generated minor actinides and transferring only fission products as waste. We present the preliminary design of a Lead-Cooled Fast Reactor operating in the adiabatic equilibrium state with the Monte Carlo Continuous Energy Burnup Code – MCB. As a reference reactor model we apply the core design developed initially under the framework of the European Lead-cooled SYstem (ELSY) project and refined in the follow-up Lead-cooled European Advanced DEmonstration Reactor (LEADER) project. The major objective of the study is to show to what extent the constraints of the adiabatic cycle are maintained and to indicate the phase space for further improvements. The analysis

  3. Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic

  4. Evaporative cooling of trapped atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ketterle, W.; Van Druten, N.J.

    1996-01-01

    This report discusses the following topics on evaporative cooling of trapped atoms: Theoretical models for evaporative cooling; the role of collisions for real atoms; experimental techniques and summary of evaporative cooling experiments. 166 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  5. Model predictive controller design of hydrocracker reactors

    OpenAIRE

    GÖKÇE, Dila

    2014-01-01

    This study summarizes the design of a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) in Tüpraş, İzmit Refinery Hydrocracker Unit Reactors. Hydrocracking process, in which heavy vacuum gasoil is converted into lighter and valuable products at high temperature and pressure is described briefly. Controller design description, identification and modeling studies are examined and the model variables are presented. WABT (Weighted Average Bed Temperature) equalization and conversion increase are simulate...

  6. Modeling of turbulent flows in cooling channels of turbo-machineries; Modelisation des ecoulements turbulents dans des canaux de refroidissement de turbomachines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bidart, A.; Caltagirone, J.P.; Parneix, S. [Laboratoire MASTER-ENSCPB, 33 - Talence (France)

    1997-12-31

    The MASTER laboratory has been involved since several years in the creation and utilization of modeling tools for the prediction of 3-D turbulent flows and heat transfers in turbine blades in order to optimize the cooling systems of turbo-machineries. This paper describes one of the test-cases that has been used for the validation of the `Aquilon` calculation code developed in this aim. Then, the modeling performed with the `Fluent` industrial code in order to evaluate the possible improvements of the Aquilon code, is presented. (J.S.) 5 refs.

  7. Study on Air-cooled Self-humidifying PEMFC Control Method Based on Segmented Predict Negative Feedback Control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhiyu, You; Tao, Xu; Zhixiang, Liu; Yun, Peng; Weirong, Cheng

    2014-01-01

    In order to obtain the optimal output performance of the air-cooled self-humidifying proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), the operating temperature, the air flow, purge interval and some other parameters must be controlled strictly. As a key factor, the operating temperature mainly determines the optimal output performance of the fuel cell. However, some intrinsic issues such as long adjusting time, over-shoot still exist inevitably for the traditional PID temperature-controlled method in circumstances of the load variation. Consequently, output performance of PEMFC decreases because the operating temperature of the fuel cell fails to reach, and the corresponding lifetime of PEMFC is also reduced. In this study, a segmented predict negative feedback control method, based on the advance proportional control one, is proposed and verified by experiments to overcome the shortcomings of PID temperature control. The results demonstrate that the optimal output performance of PEMFC can be realized by utilizing the proposed method for temperature control due to its excellent properties, simple controlling and small over-shoot

  8. Compact modeling of a telecom back-up unit powered by air-cooled proton exchange membrane fuel cell

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Xin; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2018-01-01

    Applications of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC’s) are expanding in portable, automotive and stationary markets. One promising application is the back-up power for telecommunication applications in remote areas where usually air-cooled PMEFC’s are used. An air-cooled PEMFC system is much...... simpler and cheaper while the stack performance is substantially lower. The thermal management of an air-cooled PEMFC stack is critical. A large amount of heat is side-produced with power and has to be effectively removed by excessive air fed to the stack cathode. This work explores the challenge via...... compact modeling of an air-cooled PEMFC powered telecom back-up system. The presented computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is three-dimensional (3D), and is based on the commercial CFD package Fluent (ANSYS Inc.). The fuel cell stack is simulated as an anisotropic porous medium and the spatial...

  9. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This presentation describes the capabilities of three-dimensional thermal power model of advanced stirling radioisotope generator (ASRG). The performance of the ASRG is presented for different scenario, such as Venus flyby with or without the auxiliary cooling system.

  10. The rate of diffusion into advanced gas cooled reactor moderator bricks: an equivalent cylinder model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kyte, W.S.

    1980-01-01

    The graphite moderator bricks which make up the moderator of an advanced gas-cooled nuclear reactor (AGR) are of many different and complex shapes. Many physico-chemical processes that occur within these porous bricks include a diffusional step and thus to model these processes it is necessary to solve the diffusion equation (with chemical reaction) in a porous medium of complex shape. A finite element technique is applied to calculating the rate at which nitrogen diffuses into and out of the porous moderator graphite during operation of a shutdown procedure for an AGR. However, the finite element method suffers from several disadvantages that undermine its general usefulness for calculating rates of diffusion in AGR moderator cores. A model which overcomes some of these disadvantages is presented (the equivalent cylinder model) and it is shown that this gives good results for a variety of different boundary and initial conditions

  11. Numerical Modelling of Micro-Stresses in Carbonised Austenitic Cast Steel under Rapid Cooling Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuleja J.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a method of the numerical modelling of micro-stresses in carbonised austenitic cast steel being developed during rapid cooling due to differences in the values of thermal expansion coefficients for this material phases – carbides and austenitic matrix. Micro-stresses are indicated as the main cause of crack initiation in the tooling elements of carburising furnaces being mainly made of austenitic cast steel. A calculation model of carbonised and thermally fatigued austenitic cast steel was developed based on the microstructure images obtained using light microscopy techniques and the phase composition evaluated with the X-ray diffraction method. The values of the stress tensor components and the reduced stress in the complex models of test material structure were determined numerically by the finite element method. The effort analysis was performed and the areas where development of cracks is to be expected were identified, which was experimentally confirmed.

  12. Precipitation model in microalloyed steels both isothermal and continuous cooling conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Medina, Sebastián F.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Niobium and vanadium precipitates (nitrides and carbides can inhibit the static recrystallization of austenite but this does not happen for Ti, which form nitrides at high temperatures. RPTT diagrams show the interaction between recrystallization and precipitation allowing study the strain induced precipitation kinetics and precipitate coarsening. Based on Dutta and Sellars’s expression for the start of strain-induced precipitation in microalloyed steels, a new model has been constructed which takes into account the influence of variables such as microalloying element percentages, strain, temperature, strain rate and grain size. Recrystallization- Precipitation-Time-Temperature (RPTT diagrams have been plotted thanks to a new experimental study carried out by means of hot torsion tests on approximately twenty microalloyed steels with different Nb, V and Ti contents. Mathematical analysis of the results recommends the modification of some parameters such as the supersaturation ratio (ks and constant B, which is no longer a constant but a function of ks. The expressions are now more consistent and predict the Precipitation-Time-Temperature (PTT curves with remarkable accuracy. The model for strain-induced precipitation kinetics is completed by means of Avrami’s equation. Finally, the model constructed in isothermal testing conditions, it has been converted to continuous cooling conditions in order to apply it in hot rolling.Los precipitados de V y Nb (nitruros y carburos pueden inhibir la recristalización estática de la austenita, pero no sucede lo mismo con el Ti que forma nitruros a altas temperaturas. Los diagramas RPTT muestran la interacción entre la recristalización y la precipitación, permitiendo estudiar la cinética de la misma y el crecimiento de los precipitados. Partiendo de la expresión de Dutta y Sellars se ha construido un modelo para la precipitación inducida por la deformación en aceros microaleados. El nuevo modelo

  13. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  14. Thermodynamic modeling of activity coefficient and prediction of solubility: Part 1. Predictive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirmehrabi, Mahmoud; Rohani, Sohrab; Perry, Luisa

    2006-04-01

    A new activity coefficient model was developed from excess Gibbs free energy in the form G(ex) = cA(a) x(1)(b)...x(n)(b). The constants of the proposed model were considered to be function of solute and solvent dielectric constants, Hildebrand solubility parameters and specific volumes of solute and solvent molecules. The proposed model obeys the Gibbs-Duhem condition for activity coefficient models. To generalize the model and make it as a purely predictive model without any adjustable parameters, its constants were found using the experimental activity coefficient and physical properties of 20 vapor-liquid systems. The predictive capability of the proposed model was tested by calculating the activity coefficients of 41 binary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems and showed good agreement with the experimental data in comparison with two other predictive models, the UNIFAC and Hildebrand models. The only data used for the prediction of activity coefficients, were dielectric constants, Hildebrand solubility parameters, and specific volumes of the solute and solvent molecules. Furthermore, the proposed model was used to predict the activity coefficient of an organic compound, stearic acid, whose physical properties were available in methanol and 2-butanone. The predicted activity coefficient along with the thermal properties of the stearic acid were used to calculate the solubility of stearic acid in these two solvents and resulted in a better agreement with the experimental data compared to the UNIFAC and Hildebrand predictive models.

  15. PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF ARCH FAMILY MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Silveira Amaro

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, a remarkable number of models, variants from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic family, have been developed and empirically tested, making extremely complex the process of choosing a particular model. This research aim to compare the predictive capacity, using the Model Confidence Set procedure, than five conditional heteroskedasticity models, considering eight different statistical probability distributions. The financial series which were used refers to the log-return series of the Bovespa index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period between 27 October 2008 and 30 December 2014. The empirical evidences showed that, in general, competing models have a great homogeneity to make predictions, either for a stock market of a developed country or for a stock market of a developing country. An equivalent result can be inferred for the statistical probability distributions that were used.

  16. A revised prediction model for natural conception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensdorp, Alexandra J; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Steures, Pieternel; Habbema, J Dik F; Hompes, Peter G A; Bossuyt, Patrick M M; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben W J; Eijkemans, Marinus J C

    2017-06-01

    One of the aims in reproductive medicine is to differentiate between couples that have favourable chances of conceiving naturally and those that do not. Since the development of the prediction model of Hunault, characteristics of the subfertile population have changed. The objective of this analysis was to assess whether additional predictors can refine the Hunault model and extend its applicability. Consecutive subfertile couples with unexplained and mild male subfertility presenting in fertility clinics were asked to participate in a prospective cohort study. We constructed a multivariable prediction model with the predictors from the Hunault model and new potential predictors. The primary outcome, natural conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy, was observed in 1053 women of the 5184 included couples (20%). All predictors of the Hunault model were selected into the revised model plus an additional seven (woman's body mass index, cycle length, basal FSH levels, tubal status,history of previous pregnancies in the current relationship (ongoing pregnancies after natural conception, fertility treatment or miscarriages), semen volume, and semen morphology. Predictions from the revised model seem to concur better with observed pregnancy rates compared with the Hunault model; c-statistic of 0.71 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.73) compared with 0.59 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.61). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Predictive modeling of reactive wetting and metal joining.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Swol, Frank B.

    2013-09-01

    The performance, reproducibility and reliability of metal joints are complex functions of the detailed history of physical processes involved in their creation. Prediction and control of these processes constitutes an intrinsically challenging multi-physics problem involving heating and melting a metal alloy and reactive wetting. Understanding this process requires coupling strong molecularscale chemistry at the interface with microscopic (diffusion) and macroscopic mass transport (flow) inside the liquid followed by subsequent cooling and solidification of the new metal mixture. The final joint displays compositional heterogeneity and its resulting microstructure largely determines the success or failure of the entire component. At present there exists no computational tool at Sandia that can predict the formation and success of a braze joint, as current capabilities lack the ability to capture surface/interface reactions and their effect on interface properties. This situation precludes us from implementing a proactive strategy to deal with joining problems. Here, we describe what is needed to arrive at a predictive modeling and simulation capability for multicomponent metals with complicated phase diagrams for melting and solidification, incorporating dissolutive and composition-dependent wetting.

  18. Beam cooling

    OpenAIRE

    Danared, H

    2006-01-01

    Beam cooling is the technique of reducing the momentum spread and increasing the phase-space density of stored particle beams. This paper gives an introduction to beam cooling and Liouville’s theorem, and then it describes the three methods of active beam cooling that have been proven to work so far, namely electron cooling, stochastic cooling, and laser cooling. Ionization cooling is also mentioned briefly.

  19. Desiccant cooling system performance: A simple approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, M.; Grolmes, M. A.

    1982-10-01

    The wave nature of heat and mass transfer in fixed desiccant bed adsorption is explained. A simple algebraic model of wave motion under single low desiccant bed operation is developed and applied to the prediction of the performance potential of the overall desiccant cooling system. The model is used to explain the increase in cooling system performance that is realized through the use of mixed inert desiccant material adsorption beds. The response of cooling system performance to changes in external process conditions is examined and conclusions are drawn relative to optimization of system characteristics.

  20. Dynamic Predictive Model for Growth of Bacillus cereus from Spores in Cooked Beans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juneja, Vijay K; Mishra, Abhinav; Pradhan, Abani K

    2018-02-01

    Kinetic growth data for Bacillus cereus grown from spores were collected in cooked beans under several isothermal conditions (10 to 49°C). Samples were inoculated with approximately 2 log CFU/g heat-shocked (80°C for 10 min) spores and stored at isothermal temperatures. B. cereus populations were determined at appropriate intervals by plating on mannitol-egg yolk-polymyxin agar and incubating at 30°C for 24 h. Data were fitted into Baranyi, Huang, modified Gompertz, and three-phase linear primary growth models. All four models were fitted to the experimental growth data collected at 13 to 46°C. Performances of these models were evaluated based on accuracy and bias factors, the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), and the root mean square error. Based on these criteria, the Baranyi model best described the growth data, followed by the Huang, modified Gompertz, and three-phase linear models. The maximum growth rates of each primary model were fitted as a function of temperature using the modified Ratkowsky model. The high R 2 values (0.95 to 0.98) indicate that the modified Ratkowsky model can be used to describe the effect of temperature on the growth rates for all four primary models. The acceptable prediction zone (APZ) approach also was used for validation of the model with observed data collected during single and two-step dynamic cooling temperature protocols. When the predictions using the Baranyi model were compared with the observed data using the APZ analysis, all 24 observations for the exponential single rate cooling were within the APZ, which was set between -0.5 and 1 log CFU/g; 26 of 28 predictions for the two-step cooling profiles also were within the APZ limits. The developed dynamic model can be used to predict potential B. cereus growth from spores in beans under various temperature conditions or during extended chilling of cooked beans.

  1. Assessing the Cooling Benefits of Tree Shade by an Outdoor Urban Physical Scale Model at Tempe, AZ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunshan Zhao

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban green infrastructure, especially shade trees, offers benefits to the urban residential environment by mitigating direct incoming solar radiation on building facades, particularly in hot settings. Understanding the impact of different tree locations and arrangements around residential properties has the potential to maximize cooling and can ultimately guide urban planners, designers, and homeowners on how to create the most sustainable urban environment. This research measures the cooling effect of tree shade on building facades through an outdoor urban physical scale model. The physical scale model is a simulated neighborhood consisting of an array of concrete cubes to represent houses with identical artificial trees. We tested and compared 10 different tree densities, locations, and arrangement scenarios in the physical scale model. The experimental results show that a single tree located at the southeast of the building can provide up to 2.3 °C hourly cooling benefits to east facade of the building. A two-tree cluster arrangement provides more cooling benefits (up to 6.6 °C hourly cooling benefits to the central facade when trees are located near the south and southeast sides of the building. The research results confirm the cooling benefits of tree shade and the importance of wisely designing tree locations and arrangements in the built environment.

  2. Inter-model, analytical, and experimental validation of a heat balance based residential cooling load calculation procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Dongyi

    Scope and method of study. A systematic validation of the ASHRAE heat balance based residential cooling load calculation procedure (RHB) has been performed with inter-model comparison, analytical verification and experimental validation. The inter-model validation was performed using ESP-r as the reference model. The testing process was automated through parametric generation and simulation of large sets of test cases for both RHB and ESP-r. The house prototypes covered include a simple Shoebox prototype and a real 4-bedroom house prototype. An analytical verification test suite for building fabric models of whole building energy simulation programs has been developed. The test suite consists of a series of sixteen tests covering convection, conduction, solar irradiation, long-wave radiation, infiltration and ground-coupled floors. Using the test suite, a total of twelve analytical tests have been done with the RHB procedure. The experimental validation has been conducted using experimental data collected from a Cardinal Project house located in Fort Wayne, Indiana. During the diagnostic process of the experimental validation, comparisons have also been made between ESP-r simulation results and experimental data. Findings and conclusions. It is concluded RHB is acceptable as a design tool on a typical North American house. Analytical tests confirmed the underlying mechanisms for modeling basic heat transfer phenomena in building fabric. The inter-model comparison showed that the differences found between RHB and ESP-r can be traced to the differences in sub-models used by RHB and ESP-r. It also showed that the RHB-designed systems can meet the design criteria and that the RHB temperature swing option is helpful in reducing system over-sizing. The experimental validation demonstrated that the systems designed with the method will have adequate size to meet the room temperatures specified in the design, whether or not swing is utilized. However, actual system

  3. Improving activity transport models for water-cooled nuclear power reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burrill, K.A

    2001-08-01

    Eight current models for describing radioactivity transport and radiation field growth around water-cooled nuclear power reactors have been reviewed and assessed. A frequent failing of the models is the arbitrary nature of the determination of the important processes. Nearly all modelers agree that the kinetics of deposition and release of both dissolved and particulate material must be described. Plant data must be used to guide the selection and development of suitable improved models, with a minimum of empirically-based rate constraints being used. Limiting case modelling based on experimental data is suggested as a way to simplify current models and remove their subjectivity. Improved models must consider the recent change to 'coordinated water chemistry' that appears to produce normal solubility behaviour for dissolved iron throughout the fuel cycle in PWRs, but retrograde solubility remains for dissolved nickel. Profiles are suggested for dissolved iron and nickel concentrations around the heat transport system in CANDU reactors, which operate nominally at constant chemistry, i.e., pH{sub T} constant with time, and which use carbon steel isothermal piping. These diagrams are modified for a CANDU reactor with stainless steel piping, in order to show the changes expected. The significance of these profiles for transport in PWRs is discussed for further model improvement. (author)

  4. Improving activity transport models for water-cooled nuclear power reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burrill, K.A.

    2001-08-01

    Eight current models for describing radioactivity transport and radiation field growth around water-cooled nuclear power reactors have been reviewed and assessed. A frequent failing of the models is the arbitrary nature of the determination of the important processes. Nearly all modelers agree that the kinetics of deposition and release of both dissolved and particulate material must be described. Plant data must be used to guide the selection and development of suitable improved models, with a minimum of empirically-based rate constraints being used. Limiting case modelling based on experimental data is suggested as a way to simplify current models and remove their subjectivity. Improved models must consider the recent change to 'coordinated water chemistry' that appears to produce normal solubility behaviour for dissolved iron throughout the fuel cycle in PWRs, but retrograde solubility remains for dissolved nickel. Profiles are suggested for dissolved iron and nickel concentrations around the heat transport system in CANDU reactors, which operate nominally at constant chemistry, i.e., pH T constant with time, and which use carbon steel isothermal piping. These diagrams are modified for a CANDU reactor with stainless steel piping, in order to show the changes expected. The significance of these profiles for transport in PWRs is discussed for further model improvement. (author)

  5. Update on Small Modular Reactors Dynamics System Modeling Tool -- Molten Salt Cooled Architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hale, Richard Edward [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cetiner, Sacit M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fugate, David L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Qualls, A L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Borum, Robert C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chaleff, Ethan S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rogerson, Doug W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Batteh, John J. [Modelon Corporation (Sweden); Tiller, Michael M. [Xogeny Corporation, Canton, MI (United States)

    2014-08-01

    The Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Dynamic System Modeling Tool project is in the third year of development. The project is designed to support collaborative modeling and study of various advanced SMR (non-light water cooled) concepts, including the use of multiple coupled reactors at a single site. The objective of the project is to provide a common simulation environment and baseline modeling resources to facilitate rapid development of dynamic advanced reactor SMR models, ensure consistency among research products within the Instrumentation, Controls, and Human-Machine Interface (ICHMI) technical area, and leverage cross-cutting capabilities while minimizing duplication of effort. The combined simulation environment and suite of models are identified as the Modular Dynamic SIMulation (MoDSIM) tool. The critical elements of this effort include (1) defining a standardized, common simulation environment that can be applied throughout the program, (2) developing a library of baseline component modules that can be assembled into full plant models using existing geometry and thermal-hydraulic data, (3) defining modeling conventions for interconnecting component models, and (4) establishing user interfaces and support tools to facilitate simulation development (i.e., configuration and parameterization), execution, and results display and capture.

  6. Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Shen

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

  7. Modelling language evolution: Examples and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Tao; Shuai, Lan; Zhang, Menghan

    2014-06-01

    We survey recent computer modelling research of language evolution, focusing on a rule-based model simulating the lexicon-syntax coevolution and an equation-based model quantifying the language competition dynamics. We discuss four predictions of these models: (a) correlation between domain-general abilities (e.g. sequential learning) and language-specific mechanisms (e.g. word order processing); (b) coevolution of language and relevant competences (e.g. joint attention); (c) effects of cultural transmission and social structure on linguistic understandability; and (d) commonalities between linguistic, biological, and physical phenomena. All these contribute significantly to our understanding of the evolutions of language structures, individual learning mechanisms, and relevant biological and socio-cultural factors. We conclude the survey by highlighting three future directions of modelling studies of language evolution: (a) adopting experimental approaches for model evaluation; (b) consolidating empirical foundations of models; and (c) multi-disciplinary collaboration among modelling, linguistics, and other relevant disciplines.

  8. Stability analysis of a simplified model of supercritical water-cooled system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue Aijun; Cheng Xu

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the stability analysis of a simplified model of supercritical water-cooled system. Based on the perturbation linearization and Laplace transformation, transfer function of the simplified system model is established. A stability map is generated using both dimensionless parameters, i.e. sub-pseudo-critical number and trans-pseudo-critical number. An unstable region nearby the pseudo-critical point is determined. The effect of some important parameters on the stability behavior is investigated. It is found that the system is stabilized with a higher hydraulic resistance of the inlet, fluid inlet velocity. It is also found that a longer heating zone or a bigger acceleration of gravity leads to a larger stability margin of the system. (authors)

  9. Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....... and controlled have thus become essential factors for efficient performance of waste water treatment plants. This paper examines methods for simplified modelling and controlling a sewer network. A practical approach to the problem is used by analysing simplified design model, which is based on the Barcelona...

  10. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior......One of the major challenges with the increase in wind power generation is the uncertain nature of wind speed. So far the uncertainty about wind speed has been presented through probability distributions. Also the existing models that consider the uncertainty of the wind speed primarily view...

  11. Comparison of two ordinal prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A

    2015-01-01

    system (i.e. old or new), such as the level of evidence for one or more factors included in the system or the general opinions of expert clinicians. However, given the major objective of estimating prognosis on an ordinal scale, we argue that the rival staging system candidates should be compared...... on their ability to predict outcome. We sought to outline an algorithm that would compare two rival ordinal systems on their predictive ability. RESULTS: We devised an algorithm based largely on the concordance index, which is appropriate for comparing two models in their ability to rank observations. We...... demonstrate our algorithm with a prostate cancer staging system example. CONCLUSION: We have provided an algorithm for selecting the preferred staging system based on prognostic accuracy. It appears to be useful for the purpose of selecting between two ordinal prediction models....

  12. Predictive analytics can support the ACO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Paul

    2012-04-01

    Predictive analytics can be used to rapidly spot hard-to-identify opportunities to better manage care--a key tool in accountable care. When considering analytics models, healthcare providers should: Make value-based care a priority and act on information from analytics models. Create a road map that includes achievable steps, rather than major endeavors. Set long-term expectations and recognize that the effectiveness of an analytics program takes time, unlike revenue cycle initiatives that may show a quick return.

  13. Predictive modeling in homogeneous catalysis: a tutorial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maldonado, A.G.; Rothenberg, G.

    2010-01-01

    Predictive modeling has become a practical research tool in homogeneous catalysis. It can help to pinpoint ‘good regions’ in the catalyst space, narrowing the search for the optimal catalyst for a given reaction. Just like any other new idea, in silico catalyst optimization is accepted by some

  14. Model predictive control of smart microgrids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Jiefeng; Zhu, Jianguo; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2014-01-01

    required to realise high-performance of distributed generations and will realise innovative control techniques utilising model predictive control (MPC) to assist in coordinating the plethora of generation and load combinations, thus enable the effective exploitation of the clean renewable energy sources...

  15. Feedback model predictive control by randomized algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batina, Ivo; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij; Weiland, Siep

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we present a further development of an algorithm for stochastic disturbance rejection in model predictive control with input constraints based on randomized algorithms. The algorithm presented in our work can solve the problem of stochastic disturbance rejection approximately but with

  16. A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackmece, A. Behcet; Carson, John M., III

    2007-01-01

    A model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that differs from prior MPC algorithms has been developed for controlling an uncertain nonlinear system. This algorithm guarantees the resolvability of an associated finite-horizon optimal-control problem in a receding-horizon implementation.

  17. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...

  18. Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations ...

  19. Mathematical Modeling – The Impact of Cooling Water Temperature Upsurge on Combined Cycle Power Plant Performance and Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indra Siswantara, Ahmad; Pujowidodo, Hariyotejo; Darius, Asyari; Ramdlan Gunadi, Gun Gun

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the mathematical modeling analysis on cooling system in a combined cycle power plant. The objective of this study is to get the impact of cooling water upsurge on plant performance and operation, using Engineering Equation Solver (EES™) tools. Power plant installed with total power capacity of block#1 is 505.95 MWe and block#2 is 720.8 MWe, where sea water consumed as cooling media at two unit condensers. Basic principle of analysis is heat balance calculation from steam turbine and condenser, concern to vacuum condition and heat rate values. Based on the result shown graphically, there were impact the upsurge of cooling water to increase plant heat rate and vacuum pressure in condenser so ensued decreasing plant efficiency and causing possibility steam turbine trip as back pressure raised from condenser.

  20. Model estimate of NO{sub x} production during the cooling of a lightning flash

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berton, R. [Office National d`Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

    1997-12-31

    Since discrepancies of two orders of magnitude are detected in current estimations, the question of NO{sub x} production by lightning has been addressed, and a new theoretical estimate is proposed. The new model deals with a unit length of an evanescent cooling branch of lightning supposed to be cylindrical and axisymmetrical, 1 mm in radius. The kinetics of five chemical species (N, O, N{sub 2}, O{sub 2}, NO) has been coupled to the full set of hydrodynamic equations expressing the conservation of momentum and energy together with an equation of state. This highly nonlinear system is completed by suitable boundary conditions in subsonic regime and then time-integrated by finite differences. It appears that the amount of NO produced in a cross section of channel reaches a maximum at 4,6.10{sup -7} mol/m after 50 {mu}s cooling. At that moment the average temperature is about 3000 K, at which NO is most easily formed. The net yield of NO is found to be 10{sup 16} molecules per Joule, which is one order of magnitude smaller than other theoretical results. (author) 4 refs.

  1. Heat Transfer Modeling of an Annular On-Line Spray Water Cooling Process for Electric-Resistance-Welded Steel Pipe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zejun; Han, Huiquan; Ren, Wei; Huang, Guangjie

    2015-01-01

    On-line spray water cooling (OSWC) of electric-resistance-welded (ERW) steel pipes can replace the conventional off-line heat treatment process and become an important and critical procedure. The OSWC process improves production efficiency, decreases costs, and enhances the mechanical properties of ERW steel pipe, especially the impact properties of the weld joint. In this paper, an annular OSWC process is investigated based on an experimental simulation platform that can obtain precise real-time measurements of the temperature of the pipe, the water pressure and flux, etc. The effects of the modes of annular spray water cooling and related cooling parameters on the mechanical properties of the pipe are investigated. The temperature evolutions of the inner and outer walls of the pipe are measured during the spray water cooling process, and the uniformity of mechanical properties along the circumferential and longitudinal directions is investigated. A heat transfer coefficient model of spray water cooling is developed based on measured temperature data in conjunction with simulation using the finite element method. Industrial tests prove the validity of the heat transfer model of a steel pipe undergoing spray water cooling. The research results can provide a basis for the industrial application of the OSWC process in the production of ERW steel pipes.

  2. Validation of RSG-GAS Cooling System Model at Steady-State for the RELAP5.Mod3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sukmanto-Dibyo; Endiah Puji-Hastuti

    2005-01-01

    To analyze the RSG-GAS system reactor could be performed by modelization of steady-state condition that is valid as a basic for transient condition. Validation step of RSG-GAS cooling system model is used for the RELAP5.Mod3. The validation is performed by comparing of experimental data with calculation result. The parameter in which compared are the primary cooling temperature, core temperature, secondary cooling temperature and cooling flow rate. Those data were taken on steady-state reactor operation of 25 MW. In modelization divided the Reactor core to be node of sub-channel, channel average heat flux and channel of by-pass. Meanwhile the secondary cooling systems are consisting of 2 lines. The steady-state condition has been obtained after convergent calculation achieved. Steady-state convergence of the RSG-GAS reactor coolant model achieved at the time of 3000 seconds. The result of validation model obtained and proven accurately with range deviation of 0.2 until 6.6%. (author)

  3. Disease prediction models and operational readiness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtney D Corley

    Full Text Available The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. We define a disease event to be a biological event with focus on the One Health paradigm. These events are characterized by evidence of infection and or disease condition. We reviewed models that attempted to predict a disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics and we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011. We searched commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models, using terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling. After removal of duplications and extraneous material, a core collection of 6,524 items was established, and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers, and the results are presented in this analysis. We identified 44 models, classified as one or more of the following: event prediction (4, spatial (26, ecological niche (28, diagnostic or clinical (6, spread or response (9, and reviews (3. The model parameters (e.g., etiology, climatic, spatial, cultural and data sources (e.g., remote sensing, non-governmental organizations, expert opinion, epidemiological were recorded and reviewed. A component of this review is the identification of verification and validation (V&V methods applied to each model, if any V&V method was reported. All models were classified as either having undergone Some Verification or Validation method, or No Verification or Validation. We close by outlining an initial set of operational readiness level guidelines for disease prediction models based upon established Technology

  4. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  5. Link Prediction via Sparse Gaussian Graphical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangliang Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Link prediction is an important task in complex network analysis. Traditional link prediction methods are limited by network topology and lack of node property information, which makes predicting links challenging. In this study, we address link prediction using a sparse Gaussian graphical model and demonstrate its theoretical and practical effectiveness. In theory, link prediction is executed by estimating the inverse covariance matrix of samples to overcome information limits. The proposed method was evaluated with four small and four large real-world datasets. The experimental results show that the area under the curve (AUC value obtained by the proposed method improved by an average of 3% and 12.5% compared to 13 mainstream similarity methods, respectively. This method outperforms the baseline method, and the prediction accuracy is superior to mainstream methods when using only 80% of the training set. The method also provides significantly higher AUC values when using only 60% in Dolphin and Taro datasets. Furthermore, the error rate of the proposed method demonstrates superior performance with all datasets compared to mainstream methods.

  6. Load Shifting and Storage of Cooling Energy through Ice Bank or Ice Slurry Systems: modelling and experimental analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grozdek, Marino

    2009-10-15

    Ice based Cool Thermal Energy Storage (CTES) systems have attracted much attention during last few decades. The reasons are mainly of economical and environmental nature. Compared to conventional refrigeration and air-conditioning systems without cool thermal energy storage, implementation of CTES will increase environmental standards and overall efficiency of the energy systems as it contributes to the phase-out of synthetic refrigerants and reduces peak loads in electricity grids. For the application of a cool thermal energy storages in refrigeration installations and HVAC systems in industry and building sector, it is necessary to have appropriate design tools in order to sufficiently accurate predict their performance. In this thesis theoretical and experimental investigations of two ice based cool thermal energy storage systems, namely static, indirect, external melt, ice-on-coil, i.e. ice bank system and dynamic, ice slurry cool thermal energy storage system are carried out. An ice bank storage technology for cooling purposes is known for a long time. The main drawbacks which are hindering its wider use are the system complexity, high first costs, system efficiency which is highly dependant on design, control and monitoring of the system, etc. On the other hand, ice slurry technology was not well studied until recently, while in the current scientific literature there are still differences between results and conclusions reported by different investigators. The aim of the present thesis is to extend the knowledge in the field of ice based CTES systems, thereby contributing in the development and wider utilization of those systems. In the first part of the thesis a computer application, named 'BankaLeda' is presented. It enables simulation of an ice bank system performance. In order to verify developed simulation model an experimental evaluation has been performed. Field measurements have been conducted on a two module silo which was installed as a

  7. Electrostatic ion thrusters - towards predictive modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalentev, O.; Matyash, K.; Duras, J.; Lueskow, K.F.; Schneider, R. [Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universitaet Greifswald, D-17489 (Germany); Koch, N. [Technische Hochschule Nuernberg Georg Simon Ohm, Kesslerplatz 12, D-90489 Nuernberg (Germany); Schirra, M. [Thales Electronic Systems GmbH, Soeflinger Strasse 100, D-89077 Ulm (Germany)

    2014-02-15

    The development of electrostatic ion thrusters so far has mainly been based on empirical and qualitative know-how, and on evolutionary iteration steps. This resulted in considerable effort regarding prototype design, construction and testing and therefore in significant development and qualification costs and high time demands. For future developments it is anticipated to implement simulation tools which allow for quantitative prediction of ion thruster performance, long-term behavior and space craft interaction prior to hardware design and construction. Based on integrated numerical models combining self-consistent kinetic plasma models with plasma-wall interaction modules a new quality in the description of electrostatic thrusters can be reached. These open the perspective for predictive modeling in this field. This paper reviews the application of a set of predictive numerical modeling tools on an ion thruster model of the HEMP-T (High Efficiency Multi-stage Plasma Thruster) type patented by Thales Electron Devices GmbH. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  8. Characterizing Attention with Predictive Network Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, M D; Finn, E S; Scheinost, D; Constable, R T; Chun, M M

    2017-04-01

    Recent work shows that models based on functional connectivity in large-scale brain networks can predict individuals' attentional abilities. While being some of the first generalizable neuromarkers of cognitive function, these models also inform our basic understanding of attention, providing empirical evidence that: (i) attention is a network property of brain computation; (ii) the functional architecture that underlies attention can be measured while people are not engaged in any explicit task; and (iii) this architecture supports a general attentional ability that is common to several laboratory-based tasks and is impaired in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Looking ahead, connectivity-based predictive models of attention and other cognitive abilities and behaviors may potentially improve the assessment, diagnosis, and treatment of clinical dysfunction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Genetic models of homosexuality: generating testable predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilets, Sergey; Rice, William R

    2006-01-01

    Homosexuality is a common occurrence in humans and other species, yet its genetic and evolutionary basis is poorly understood. Here, we formulate and study a series of simple mathematical models for the purpose of predicting empirical patterns that can be used to determine the form of selection that leads to polymorphism of genes influencing homosexuality. Specifically, we develop theory to make contrasting predictions about the genetic characteristics of genes influencing homosexuality including: (i) chromosomal location, (ii) dominance among segregating alleles and (iii) effect sizes that distinguish between the two major models for their polymorphism: the overdominance and sexual antagonism models. We conclude that the measurement of the genetic characteristics of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) found in genomic screens for genes influencing homosexuality can be highly informative in resolving the form of natural selection maintaining their polymorphism. PMID:17015344

  10. Numerical and experimental investigation of thermoelectric cooling in down-hole measuring tools; a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohitha Weerasinghe

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Use of Peltier cooling in down-hole seismic tooling has been restricted by the performance of such devices at elevated temperatures. Present paper analyses the performance of Peltier cooling in temperatures suited for down-hole measuring equipment using measurements, predicted manufacturer data and computational fluid dynamic analysis. Peltier performance prediction techniques is presented with measurements. Validity of the extrapolation of thermoelectric cooling performance at elevated temperatures has been tested using computational models for thermoelectric cooling device. This method has been used to model cooling characteristics of a prototype downhole tool and the computational technique used has been proven valid.

  11. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  12. Prediction models : the right tool for the right problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, Teus H.; Peelen, Linda M.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Perioperative prediction models can help to improve personalized patient care by providing individual risk predictions to both patients and providers. However, the scientific literature on prediction model development and validation can be quite technical and challenging to

  13. Plumes from one and two cooling towers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kannberg, L.D.; Onishi, Y.

    1978-01-01

    Use of mechanical- and natural-draft cooling towers is expanding in the United States in response to pressures for better resource allocation and preservation. Specifically, increasing public and regulatory concern over the effects of the intake and discharge of large volumes of cooling water has encouraged electric utilities to accept cooling towers as the primary method of removing condenser waste heat even though once-through cooling is considerably less expensive. Other factors encouraging the use of cooling towers include small water supply and consumption rates, reduction in land requirements (compared to cooling ponds or lakes), and operational flexibility. The growing demand for electric energy should also add to the increase of cooling tower use. The experimental program and its comparison to model prediction suggest that optimal siting of cooling towers, particularly multiple towers, is a task requiring knowledge of ambient wind history, plume dynamics, and tower operating conditions. Based on the tower wake effects and on the results for interaction of plumes from two cooling towers, site terrain may be a very significant factor in plume dynamics and interaction

  14. Performance enhancement of solar module by cooling: An experimental investigation

    OpenAIRE

    P G Nikhil, M Premalatha

    2012-01-01

    The study evaluates the silicone oil cooling of the solar module surface. Solar module with maximum power of 7W was employed for cooling. This paper summarizes the result of an outdoor experiment. The experiments were conducted in batch mode, with the cooling medium spread on the module surface at different thickness from 0mm to 6mm. The performance of the module, throughout the day, for different thickness of the medium is reported. The study also presents a mathematical model, predicting th...

  15. Comparative study between single core model and detail core model of CFD modelling on reactor core cooling behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmawan, R.

    2018-01-01

    Nuclear power industry is facing uncertainties since the occurrence of the unfortunate accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The issue of nuclear power plant safety becomes the major hindrance in the planning of nuclear power program for new build countries. Thus, the understanding of the behaviour of reactor system is very important to ensure the continuous development and improvement on reactor safety. Throughout the development of nuclear reactor technology, investigation and analysis on reactor safety have gone through several phases. In the early days, analytical and experimental methods were employed. For the last four decades 1D system level codes were widely used. The continuous development of nuclear reactor technology has brought about more complex system and processes of nuclear reactor operation. More detailed dimensional simulation codes are needed to assess these new reactors. Recently, 2D and 3D system level codes such as CFD are being explored. This paper discusses a comparative study on two different approaches of CFD modelling on reactor core cooling behaviour.

  16. A heterogeneous model for burnup calculation in high temperature gas-cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perfetti, C. M.; Angahie, S.; Baxter, A.; Ellis, C.

    2008-01-01

    A high resolution MCNPX model is developed to simulate nuclear design characteristics and fuel cycle features of High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors. Contrary to the conventional approach in the MCNPX model, fuel regions containing TRISO particles are not homogenized. A cube corner distribution approximation is used to directly model randomly dispersed TRISO fuel particles in a graphite matrix. The universe filling technique is used cover the entire range of fuel particles in the core. The heterogeneous MCNPX model is applied to simulate and analyze the complete fuel cycle of the General Atomics Plutonium-Consumption Modular Helium Reactor (PC-MHR). The PC-MHR reactor design is a variation of the General Atomic MHR design and is designed for the consumption or burning of excess Russian weapons plutonium. The MCNPX burnup calculation of the PC-MHR includes the simulation of a 260 effective full-power day fuel cycle at 600 MWt. Results of the MCNPX calculations suggest that during 260 effective full-power day cycle, 40% reduction in the whole core Pu-239 inventory could be achieved. Results of heterogeneous MCNPX burnup calculations in PC-MHR are compared with results of deterministically calculated values obtained from DIF3D codes. For the 260 effective full-power day cycle, the difference in mass Pu-239 mass reduction calculation using heterogeneous MCNPX and homogeneous DIF3D models is 6%. The difference in MCNPX and DIF3D calculated results for higher actinides are mostly higher than 6%. (authors)

  17. Application of evolutionary algorithms to optimize the model parameters of casting cooling process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kluska-Nawarecka

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the most commonly used methods of numerical simulation is the finite element method (FEM. Its popularity is reflected in thenumber of tools supporting the preparation of simulation models. However, despite its usefulness, FEM is often very troublesome in use;the problem is the selection of the finite element mesh or shape function. In addition, MES assumes a complete knowledge of thesimulated process and of the parameters describing the investigated phenomena, including model geometry, boundary conditions, physicalparameters, and mathematical model describing these phenomena. A comparison of the data obtained from physical experiments andsimulations indicates an inaccuracy, which may result from the incorrectly chosen shape of element or geometry of the grid. Theapplication of computational intelligence methods, combined with knowledge of the manufacturing technology of metal products, shouldallow an efficient selection of parameters of the mathematical models and, as a consequence, more precise control of the process of thecasting solidification and cooling to ensure the required quality. The designed system has been integrated with the existing simulationenvironment, which will significantly facilitate the preparation and implementation of calculations of this type. Moreover, the use of adistributed model will significantly reduce the time complexity of calculations, requiring multiple repetition of complex simulations toestimate the quality of the different sets of parameters.

  18. Modeling of skin cooling, blood flow, and optical properties in wounds created by electrical shock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thu T. A.; Shupp, Jeffrey W.; Moffatt, Lauren T.; Jordan, Marion H.; Jeng, James C.; Ramella-Roman, Jessica C.

    2012-02-01

    High voltage electrical injuries may lead to irreversible tissue damage or even death. Research on tissue injury following high voltage shock is needed and may yield stage-appropriate therapy to reduce amputation rate. One of the mechanisms by which electricity damages tissue is through Joule heating, with subsequent protein denaturation. Previous studies have shown that blood flow had a significant effect on the cooling rate of heated subcutaneous tissue. To assess the thermal damage in tissue, this study focused on monitoring changes of temperature and optical properties of skin next to high voltage wounds. The burns were created between left fore limb and right hind limb extremities of adult male Sprague-Dawley rats by a 1000VDC delivery shock system. A thermal camera was utilized to record temperature variation during the exposure. The experimental results were then validated using a thermal-electric finite element model (FEM).

  19. An experimental model of the evaporative cooling system of a single powerful LED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shatskiy Evgeny

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An experimental model of the evaporative cooling system of a single powerful LED with a natural circulation of the coolant capable of removing a heat flux density of more than 1 kW / cm2 is created. It is shown that on the finned surfaces the overheating relative to the saturation temperature in comparison with a smooth surface decreases up to three times for the heater with a diameter of 5 mm. There is up to two times increase in heat transfer coefficient on finned surfaces as compared to the smooth ones. For finned surfaces on the heater with a diameter of 1 mm the surface overheating relative to the saturation temperature decreases in four times. More than three times increase is observed for the heat transfer coefficient on finned surfaces as compared to the smooth ones.

  20. Neutronic modeling for a Gas-cooled Fast Reactor assuming coated fuel particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golfier, H.; Buiron, C.; Poinot, B.; Pothet, J. F.; Salavy, E.; Studer

    2004-01-01

    The modeling of gas cooled fast reactor (GCFR) with the SAPHYR system and in particular APOLLO2 code assuming coated fuel particles, was investigated. It aims to estimate the APOLLO2 code accuracy, solving the neutron transport equation in range of fast neutron reactors. A two level PIJ/SN APOLLO2 scheme is proposed in which the first level is devoted to the self-shielding and the leakage calculation on a cell configuration. The efficiency of a new treatment of adsorption and scattering rates in the self-shielding module of the multigroup transport code APOLLO2 has been evaluated. The results show that two-level scheme provides promising results with 172-group cross section libraries, which confirm the APOLLO2 scheme as a tool for reactor designs. (authors)

  1. An experimental model of the evaporative cooling system of a single powerful LED

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shatskiy, Evgeny

    2017-10-01

    An experimental model of the evaporative cooling system of a single powerful LED with a natural circulation of the coolant capable of removing a heat flux density of more than 1 kW / cm2 is created. It is shown that on the finned surfaces the overheating relative to the saturation temperature in comparison with a smooth surface decreases up to three times for the heater with a diameter of 5 mm. There is up to two times increase in heat transfer coefficient on finned surfaces as compared to the smooth ones. For finned surfaces on the heater with a diameter of 1 mm the surface overheating relative to the saturation temperature decreases in four times. More than three times increase is observed for the heat transfer coefficient on finned surfaces as compared to the smooth ones.

  2. Mathematical Methodology for New Modeling of Water Hammer in Emergency Core Cooling System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seungchan; Yoon, Dukjoo; Ha, Sangjun

    2013-01-01

    In engineering insight, the water hammer study has carried out through the experimental work and the fluid mechanics. In this study, a new access methodology is introduced by Newton mechanics and a mathematical method. Also, NRC Generic Letter 2008-01 requires nuclear power plant operators to evaluate the effect of water-hammer for the protection of pipes of the Emergency Core Cooling System, which is related to the Residual Heat Removal System and the Containment Spray System. This paper includes modeling, the processes of derivation of the mathematical equations and the comparison with other experimental work. To analyze the effect of water-hammer, this mathematical methodology is carried out. This study is in good agreement with other experiment results as above. This method is very efficient to explain the water-hammer phenomena

  3. Neuro-fuzzy modeling in bankruptcy prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlachos D.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past 30 years the problem of bankruptcy prediction had been thoroughly studied. From the paper of Altman in 1968 to the recent papers in the '90s, the progress of prediction accuracy was not satisfactory. This paper investigates an alternative modeling of the system (firm, combining neural networks and fuzzy controllers, i.e. using neuro-fuzzy models. Classical modeling is based on mathematical models that describe the behavior of the firm under consideration. The main idea of fuzzy control, on the other hand, is to build a model of a human control expert who is capable of controlling the process without thinking in a mathematical model. This control expert specifies his control action in the form of linguistic rules. These control rules are translated into the framework of fuzzy set theory providing a calculus, which can stimulate the behavior of the control expert and enhance its performance. The accuracy of the model is studied using datasets from previous research papers.

  4. Reducing Uncertainty in Chemistry Climate Model Predictions of Stratospheric Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, A. R.; Strahan, S. E.; Oman, L. D.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2014-01-01

    Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to predict the future evolution of stratospheric ozone as ozone-depleting substances decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM predictions exhibit many common features, but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone-return-to-1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to chlorine change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower atmosphere ozone to chlorine change deltaO3/deltaCly is a near linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine (Cly) into its reservoirs; both Cly and its partitioning are controlled by lower atmospheric transport. CCMs with realistic transport agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035 differences in response to chlorine contribute little to the spread in CCM results as the anthropogenic contribution to Cly becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change deltaO3/deltaT due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with their own temperature dependence. In the lower atmosphere, tropical ozone decreases caused by a predicted speed-up in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by middle and high latitude increases, contributing most to the spread in late 21st century predictions.

  5. Predictive Models for Carcinogenicity and Mutagenicity ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutagenicity and carcinogenicity are endpoints of major environmental and regulatory concern. These endpoints are also important targets for development of alternative methods for screening and prediction due to the large number of chemicals of potential concern and the tremendous cost (in time, money, animals) of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays. Both mutagenicity and carcinogenicity involve complex, cellular processes that are only partially understood. Advances in technologies and generation of new data will permit a much deeper understanding. In silico methods for predicting mutagenicity and rodent carcinogenicity based on chemical structural features, along with current mutagenicity and carcinogenicity data sets, have performed well for local prediction (i.e., within specific chemical classes), but are less successful for global prediction (i.e., for a broad range of chemicals). The predictivity of in silico methods can be improved by improving the quality of the data base and endpoints used for modelling. In particular, in vitro assays for clastogenicity need to be improved to reduce false positives (relative to rodent carcinogenicity) and to detect compounds that do not interact directly with DNA or have epigenetic activities. New assays emerging to complement or replace some of the standard assays include VitotoxTM, GreenScreenGC, and RadarScreen. The needs of industry and regulators to assess thousands of compounds necessitate the development of high-t

  6. Ensemble models on palaeoclimate to predict India's groundwater challenge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Partha Sarathi Datta

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In many parts of the world, freshwater crisis is largely due to increasing water consumption and pollution by rapidly growing population and aspirations for economic development, but, ascribed usually to the climate. However, limited understanding and knowledge gaps in the factors controlling climate and uncertainties in the climate models are unable to assess the probable impacts on water availability in tropical regions. In this context, review of ensemble models on δ18O and δD in rainfall and groundwater, 3H- and 14C- ages of groundwater and 14C- age of lakes sediments helped to reconstruct palaeoclimate and long-term recharge in the North-west India; and predict future groundwater challenge. The annual mean temperature trend indicates both warming/cooling in different parts of India in the past and during 1901–2010. Neither the GCMs (Global Climate Models nor the observational record indicates any significant change/increase in temperature and rainfall over the last century, and climate change during the last 1200 yrs BP. In much of the North-West region, deep groundwater renewal occurred from past humid climate, and shallow groundwater renewal from limited modern recharge over the past decades. To make water management to be more responsive to climate change, the gaps in the science of climate change need to be bridged.

  7. Investigation of Film Cooling Strategies CFD versus Experiments -Potential for Using Reduced Models

    OpenAIRE

    Nadalina Jafabadi, Hossein

    2010-01-01

    The ability and efficiency of today’s gas turbine engines are highly dependent on development of cooling technologies, among which film cooling is one of the most important. Investigations have been conducted towards discovering different aspects of film cooling, utilizing both experiments and performing CFD simulations. Although, investigation by using CFD analysis is less expensive in general, the results obtained from CFD calculations should be validated by means of experimental results. I...

  8. Disease Prediction Models and Operational Readiness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corley, Courtney D.; Pullum, Laura L.; Hartley, David M.; Benedum, Corey M.; Noonan, Christine F.; Rabinowitz, Peter M.; Lancaster, Mary J.

    2014-03-19

    INTRODUCTION: The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. One of the primary goals of this research was to characterize the viability of biosurveillance models to provide operationally relevant information for decision makers to identify areas for future research. Two critical characteristics differentiate this work from other infectious disease modeling reviews. First, we reviewed models that attempted to predict the disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics. Second, we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). Methods: We searched dozens of commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models utilizing terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche-modeling, The publication date of search results returned are bound by the dates of coverage of each database and the date in which the search was performed, however all searching was completed by December 31, 2010. This returned 13,767 webpages and 12,152 citations. After de-duplication and removal of extraneous material, a core collection of 6,503 items was established and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. Next, PNNL’s IN-SPIRE visual analytics software was used to cross-correlate these publications with the definition for a biosurveillance model resulting in the selection of 54 documents that matched the criteria resulting Ten of these documents, However, dealt purely with disease spread models, inactivation of bacteria, or the modeling of human immune system responses to pathogens rather than predicting disease events. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers and the

  9. Detailed modeling of electron emission for transpiration cooling of hypersonic vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanquist, Kyle M.; Hara, Kentaro; Boyd, Iain D.

    2017-02-01

    Electron transpiration cooling (ETC) is a recently proposed approach to manage the high heating loads experienced at the sharp leading edges of hypersonic vehicles. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) can be used to investigate the feasibility of ETC in a hypersonic environment. A modeling approach is presented for ETC, which includes developing the boundary conditions for electron emission from the surface, accounting for the space-charge limit effects of the near-wall plasma sheath. The space-charge limit models are assessed using 1D direct-kinetic plasma sheath simulations, taking into account the thermionically emitted electrons from the surface. The simulations agree well with the space-charge limit theory proposed by Takamura et al. for emitted electrons with a finite temperature, especially at low values of wall bias, which validates the use of the theoretical model for the hypersonic CFD code. The CFD code with the analytical sheath models is then used for a test case typical of a leading edge radius in a hypersonic flight environment. The CFD results show that ETC can lower the surface temperature of sharp leading edges of hypersonic vehicles, especially at higher velocities, due to the increase in ionized species enabling higher electron heat extraction from the surface. The CFD results also show that space-charge limit effects can limit the ETC reduction of surface temperatures, in comparison to thermionic emission assuming no effects of the electric field within the sheath.

  10. Nonlinear model predictive control theory and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Grüne, Lars

    2017-01-01

    This book offers readers a thorough and rigorous introduction to nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for discrete-time and sampled-data systems. NMPC schemes with and without stabilizing terminal constraints are detailed, and intuitive examples illustrate the performance of different NMPC variants. NMPC is interpreted as an approximation of infinite-horizon optimal control so that important properties like closed-loop stability, inverse optimality and suboptimality can be derived in a uniform manner. These results are complemented by discussions of feasibility and robustness. An introduction to nonlinear optimal control algorithms yields essential insights into how the nonlinear optimization routine—the core of any nonlinear model predictive controller—works. Accompanying software in MATLAB® and C++ (downloadable from extras.springer.com/), together with an explanatory appendix in the book itself, enables readers to perform computer experiments exploring the possibilities and limitations of NMPC. T...

  11. A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolfi, A.

    2015-01-01

    values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....

  12. A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolfi, A.

    2015-01-01

    This work concerns the effect of deposition angle (a) and layer thickness (L) on the dimensional performance of FDM parts using a predictive model based on the geometrical description of the FDM filament profile. An experimental validation over the whole a range from 0° to 177° at 3° steps and two...... values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....

  13. Predictive Modeling in Actinide Chemistry and Catalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Ping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-16

    These are slides from a presentation on predictive modeling in actinide chemistry and catalysis. The following topics are covered in these slides: Structures, bonding, and reactivity (bonding can be quantified by optical probes and theory, and electronic structures and reaction mechanisms of actinide complexes); Magnetic resonance properties (transition metal catalysts with multi-nuclear centers, and NMR/EPR parameters); Moving to more complex systems (surface chemistry of nanomaterials, and interactions of ligands with nanoparticles); Path forward and conclusions.

  14. Predictive modelling of evidence informed teaching

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Dell; Brown, C.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we analyse the questionnaire survey data collected from 79 English primary schools about the situation of evidence informed teaching, where the evidences could come from research journals or conferences. Specifically, we build a predictive model to see what external factors could help to close the gap between teachers’ belief and behaviour in evidence informed teaching, which is the first of its kind to our knowledge. The major challenge, from the data mining perspective, is th...

  15. A Predictive Model for Cognitive Radio

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-14

    response in a given situation. Vadde et al. interest and produce a model for prediction of the response. have applied response surface methodology and...34 2000. [3] K. K. Vadde and V. R. Syrotiuk, "Factor interaction on service configurations to those that best meet our communication delivery in mobile ad...resulting set of configurations randomly or apply additional 2004. screening criteria. [4] K. K. Vadde , M.-V. R. Syrotiuk, and D. C. Montgomery

  16. Tectonic predictions with mantle convection models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltice, Nicolas; Shephard, Grace E.

    2018-04-01

    Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth's mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough

  17. Modeling of Rocket Fuel Heating and Cooling Processes in the Interior Receptacle Space of Ground-Based Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. I. Denisova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The propellant to fill the fuel tanks of the spacecraft, upper stages, and space rockets on technical and ground-based launch sites before fueling should be prepared to ensure many of its parameters, including temperature, in appropriate condition. Preparation of fuel temperature is arranged through heating and cooling the rocket propellants (RP in the tanks of fueling equipment. Processes of RP temperature preparation are the most energy-intensive and timeconsuming ones, which require that a choice of sustainable technologies and modes of cooling (heating RP provided by the ground-based equipment has been made through modeling of the RP [1] temperature preparation processes at the stage of design and operation of the groundbased fueling equipment.The RP temperature preparation in the tanks of the ground-based systems can be provided through the heat-exchangers built-in the internal space and being external with respect to the tank in which antifreeze, air or liquid nitrogen may be used as the heat transfer media. The papers [1-12], which note a promising use of the liquid nitrogen to cool PR, present schematic diagrams and modeling systems for the RP temperature preparation in the fueling equipment of the ground-based systems.We consider the RP temperature preparation using heat exchangers to be placed directly in RP tanks. Feeding the liquid nitrogen into heat exchanger with the antifreeze provides the cooling mode of PR while a heated air fed there does that of heating. The paper gives the systems of equations and results of modeling the processes of RP temperature preparation, and its estimated efficiency.The systems of equations of cooling and heating RP are derived on the assumption that the heat exchange between the fuel and the antifreeze, as well as between the storage tank and the environment is quasi-stationary.The paper presents calculation results of the fuel temperature in the tank, and coolant temperature in the heat exchanger, as

  18. Predictive Modeling of the CDRA 4BMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coker, Robert F.; Knox, James C.

    2016-01-01

    As part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program and the Life Support Systems Project (LSSP), fully predictive models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) on the International Space Station (ISS) are being developed. This virtual laboratory will be used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for future missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.

  19. Theoretical prediction of the effect of heat transfer parameters on cooling rates of liquid-filled plastic straws used for cryopreservation of spermatozoa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sansinen, M; Santos, M V; Zaritzky, N; Baez, R; Chirife, J

    2010-01-01

    Heat transfer plays a key role in cryopreservation of liquid semen in plastic straws. The effect of several parameters on the cooling rate of a liquid-filled polypropylene straw when plunged into liquid nitrogen was investigated using a theoretical model. The geometry of the straw containing the liquid was assimilated as two concentric finite cylinders of different materials: the fluid and the straw; the unsteady-state heat conduction equation for concentric cylinders was numerically solved. Parameters studied include external (convection) heat transfer coefficient (h), the thermal properties of straw manufacturing material and wall thickness. It was concluded that the single most important parameter affecting the cooling rate of a liquid column contained in a straw is the external heat transfer coefficient in LN2. Consequently, in order to attain maximum cooling rates, conditions have to be designed to obtain the highest possible heat transfer coefficient when the plastic straw is plunged in liquid nitrogen.

  20. Dynamic heat transfer modeling and parametric study of thermoelectric radiant cooling and heating panel system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Yongqiang; Zhang, Ling; Liu, Zhongbing; Wang, Yingzi; Wu, Jing; Wang, Xiliang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Dynamic model of thermoelectric radiant panel system is established. • The internal parameters of thermoelectric module are dynamically calculated in simulation. • Both artificial neural networks model and system model are verified through experiment data. • Optimized system structure is obtained through parametric study. - Abstract: Radiant panel system can optimize indoor thermal comfort with lower energy consumption. The thermoelectric radiant panel (TERP) system is a new and effective prototype of radiant system using thermoelectric module (TEM) instead of conventional water pipes, as heat source. The TERP can realize more stable and easier system control as well as lower initial and operative cost. In this study, an improved system dynamic model was established by combining analytical system model and artificial neural networks (ANN) as well as the dynamic calculation functions of internal parameters of TEM. The double integral was used for the calculation of surface average temperature of TERP. The ANN model and system model were in good agreement with experiment data in both cooling and heating mode. In order to optimize the system design structure, parametric study was conducted in terms of the thickness of aluminum panel and insulation, as well as the arrangement of TEMs on the surface of radiant panel. It was found through simulation results that the optimum thickness of aluminum panel and insulation are respectively around 1–2 mm and 40–50 mm. In addition, TEMs should be uniformly installed on the surface of radiant panel and each TEM should stand at the central position of a square-shaped typical region with length around 0.387–0.548 m.

  1. Models for the water-ice librational band in cool dust: possible observational test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, G.

    2014-01-01

    Of all the water-ice (H2O-ice) bands the librational band, occurring at a wavelength of about 12 μm, has proved to be the most difficult to detect observationally and also to reproduce in radiative transfer models. In fact, the case for the positive identification of the feature is strong in only a few astronomical objects. A previously suggested explanation for this is that so-called radiative transfer effects may mask the feature. In this paper, radiative transfer models are produced which unambiguously reveal the presence of the librational band as a separate resolved feature provided that there is no dust present which radiates significantly in the 10-μm region, specifically silicate-type dust. This means that the maximum dust temperature must be ≲50 K. In this case, the models indicate that the librational band may clearly be observed as an absorption feature against the stellar continuum. This suggests that the feature may be best observed by obtaining the 10-μm spectrum of stars either with very cool circumstellar dust shells, with Tmax ≲ 50 K, or those without circumstellar dust shells at all but with interstellar extinction. The first option might, however, require unrealistically large amounts of dust in the circumstellar shell in order to produce measurable absorption. Thus, the best place to look for the water-ice librational band may not be protostars with the remnants of their dust cloud still present, or evolved objects with ejected dust shells, as one might first think, because of the warm dust (Tmax ≫ 50 K) usually present in the shells of these objects. If objects associated with very cool dust exclusively do show the 3.1-μm water-ice band in deep absorption, but the librational band still does not appear, this may imply that it is not radiative transfer effects which suppress the librational band, and that some other mechanism for its suppression is in play. One possibility is that a low water-ice to silicate abundance may mask the

  2. Real time thermal hydraulic model for high temperature gas-cooled reactor core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sui Zhe; Sun Jun; Ma Yuanle; Zhang Ruipeng

    2013-01-01

    A real-time thermal hydraulic model of the reactor core was described and integrated into the simulation system for the high temperature gas-cooled pebble bed reactor nuclear power plant, which was developed in the vPower platform, a new simulation environment for nuclear and fossil power plants. In the thermal hydraulic model, the helium flow paths were established by the flow network tools in order to obtain the flow rates and pressure distributions. Meanwhile, the heat structures, representing all the solid heat transfer elements in the pebble bed, graphite reflectors and carbon bricks, were connected by the heat transfer network in order to solve the temperature distributions in the reactor core. The flow network and heat transfer network were coupled and calculated in real time. Two steady states (100% and 50% full power) and two transients (inlet temperature step and flow step) were tested that the quantitative comparisons of the steady results with design data and qualitative analysis of the transients showed the good applicability of the present thermal hydraulic model. (authors)

  3. Predictive Modeling by the Cerebellum Improves Proprioception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhanpuri, Nasir H.; Okamura, Allison M.

    2013-01-01

    Because sensation is delayed, real-time movement control requires not just sensing, but also predicting limb position, a function hypothesized for the cerebellum. Such cerebellar predictions could contribute to perception of limb position (i.e., proprioception), particularly when a person actively moves the limb. Here we show that human cerebellar patients have proprioceptive deficits compared with controls during active movement, but not when the arm is moved passively. Furthermore, when healthy subjects move in a force field with unpredictable dynamics, they have active proprioceptive deficits similar to cerebellar patients. Therefore, muscle activity alone is likely insufficient to enhance proprioception and predictability (i.e., an internal model of the body and environment) is important for active movement to benefit proprioception. We conclude that cerebellar patients have an active proprioceptive deficit consistent with disrupted movement prediction rather than an inability to generally enhance peripheral proprioceptive signals during action and suggest that active proprioceptive deficits should be considered a fundamental cerebellar impairment of clinical importance. PMID:24005283

  4. Boundary model-based reference control of blower cooled high temperature polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Hans-Christian Becker; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2011-01-01

    life time of a fuel cell significantly. On air cooled HTPEMFCs, the blower, which supplies the fuel cell with oxygen for the chemical process, also functions as the cooling system. This makes the blower bi-functional and as a result a higher supply of oxygen is often available, hence changes...

  5. Thermoelectric air-cooling module for electronic devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Yu-Wei; Chang, Chih-Chung; Ke, Ming-Tsun; Chen, Sih-Li

    2009-01-01

    This article investigates the thermoelectric air-cooling module for electronic devices. The effects of heat load of heater and input current to thermoelectric cooler are experimentally determined. A theoretical model of thermal analogy network is developed to predict the thermal performance of the thermoelectric air-cooling module. The result shows that the prediction by the model agrees with the experimental data. At a specific heat load, the thermoelectric air-cooling module reaches the best cooling performance at an optimum input current. In this study, the optimum input currents are from 6 A to 7 A at the heat loads from 20 W to 100 W. The result also demonstrates that the thermoelectric air-cooling module performs better performance at a lower heat load. The lowest total temperature difference-heat load ratio is experimentally estimated as -0.54 W K -1 at the low heat load of 20 W, while it is 0.664 W K -1 at the high heat load of 100 W. In some conditions, the thermoelectric air-cooling module performs worse than the air-cooling heat sink only. This article shows the effective operating range in which the cooling performance of the thermoelectric air-cooling module excels that of the air-cooling heat sink only.

  6. Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (HT) screening-level exposures developed under ExpoCast can be combined with HT screening (HTS) bioactivity data for the risk-based prioritization of chemicals for further evaluation. The functional role (e.g. solvent, plasticizer, fragrance) that a chemical performs can drive both the types of products in which it is found and the concentration in which it is present and therefore impacting exposure potential. However, critical chemical use information (including functional role) is lacking for the majority of commercial chemicals for which exposure estimates are needed. A suite of machine-learning based models for classifying chemicals in terms of their likely functional roles in products based on structure were developed. This effort required collection, curation, and harmonization of publically-available data sources of chemical functional use information from government and industry bodies. Physicochemical and structure descriptor data were generated for chemicals with function data. Machine-learning classifier models for function were then built in a cross-validated manner from the descriptor/function data using the method of random forests. The models were applied to: 1) predict chemi

  7. Gamma-Ray Pulsars Models and Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Harding, A K

    2001-01-01

    Pulsed emission from gamma-ray pulsars originates inside the magnetosphere, from radiation by charged particles accelerated near the magnetic poles or in the outer gaps. In polar cap models, the high energy spectrum is cut off by magnetic pair production above an energy that is dependent on the local magnetic field strength. While most young pulsars with surface fields in the range B = 10^{12} - 10^{13} G are expected to have high energy cutoffs around several GeV, the gamma-ray spectra of old pulsars having lower surface fields may extend to 50 GeV. Although the gamma-ray emission of older pulsars is weaker, detecting pulsed emission at high energies from nearby sources would be an important confirmation of polar cap models. Outer gap models predict more gradual high-energy turnovers at around 10 GeV, but also predict an inverse Compton component extending to TeV energies. Detection of pulsed TeV emission, which would not survive attenuation at the polar caps, is thus an important test of outer gap models. N...

  8. A prediction model for Clostridium difficile recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis D. LaBarbera

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clostridium difficile infection (CDI is a growing problem in the community and hospital setting. Its incidence has been on the rise over the past two decades, and it is quickly becoming a major concern for the health care system. High rate of recurrence is one of the major hurdles in the successful treatment of C. difficile infection. There have been few studies that have looked at patterns of recurrence. The studies currently available have shown a number of risk factors associated with C. difficile recurrence (CDR; however, there is little consensus on the impact of most of the identified risk factors. Methods: Our study was a retrospective chart review of 198 patients diagnosed with CDI via Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR from February 2009 to Jun 2013. In our study, we decided to use a machine learning algorithm called the Random Forest (RF to analyze all of the factors proposed to be associated with CDR. This model is capable of making predictions based on a large number of variables, and has outperformed numerous other models and statistical methods. Results: We came up with a model that was able to accurately predict the CDR with a sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity of 63.1%, and area under curve of 82.6%. Like other similar studies that have used the RF model, we also had very impressive results. Conclusions: We hope that in the future, machine learning algorithms, such as the RF, will see a wider application.

  9. Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim T. Yousif

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available   Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature.    The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor  affecting the output of the model.     The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.

  10. Evaluating predictive models of software quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciaschini, V; Canaparo, M; Ronchieri, E; Salomoni, D

    2014-01-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  11. A generative model for predicting terrorist incidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Dinesh C.; Verma, Archit; Felmlee, Diane; Pearson, Gavin; Whitaker, Roger

    2017-05-01

    A major concern in coalition peace-support operations is the incidence of terrorist activity. In this paper, we propose a generative model for the occurrence of the terrorist incidents, and illustrate that an increase in diversity, as measured by the number of different social groups to which that an individual belongs, is inversely correlated with the likelihood of a terrorist incident in the society. A generative model is one that can predict the likelihood of events in new contexts, as opposed to statistical models which are used to predict the future incidents based on the history of the incidents in an existing context. Generative models can be useful in planning for persistent Information Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) since they allow an estimation of regions in the theater of operation where terrorist incidents may arise, and thus can be used to better allocate the assignment and deployment of ISR assets. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of terrorist incidents, identify factors related to occurrence of terrorist incidents, and provide a mathematical analysis calculating the likelihood of occurrence of terrorist incidents in three common real-life scenarios arising in peace-keeping operations

  12. PREDICTION MODELS OF GRAIN YIELD AND CHARACTERIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narciso Ysac Avila Serrano

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available With the objective to characterize the grain yield of five cowpea cultivars and to find linear regression models to predict it, a study was developed in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. A complete randomized blocks design was used. Simple and multivariate analyses of variance were carried out using the canonical variables to characterize the cultivars. The variables cluster per plant, pods per plant, pods per cluster, seeds weight per plant, seeds hectoliter weight, 100-seed weight, seeds length, seeds wide, seeds thickness, pods length, pods wide, pods weight, seeds per pods, and seeds weight per pods, showed significant differences (P≤ 0.05 among cultivars. Paceño and IT90K-277-2 cultivars showed the higher seeds weight per plant. The linear regression models showed correlation coefficients ≥0.92. In these models, the seeds weight per plant, pods per cluster, pods per plant, cluster per plant and pods length showed significant correlations (P≤ 0.05. In conclusion, the results showed that grain yield differ among cultivars and for its estimation, the prediction models showed determination coefficients highly dependable.

  13. In vivo laser cartilage reshaping with carbon dioxide spray cooling in a rabbit ear model: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuan, Edward C; Hamamoto, Ashley A; Sun, Victor; Nguyen, Tony; Manuel, Cyrus T; Protsenko, Dmitry E; Wong, Brian J F; Nelson, J Stuart; Jia, Wangcun

    2014-12-01

    Similar to conventional cryogen spray cooling, carbon dioxide (CO2) spray may be used in combination with laser cartilage reshaping (LCR) to produce cartilage shape change while minimizing cutaneous thermal injury. Recent ex vivo evaluation of LCR with CO2 cooling in a rabbit model has identified a promising initial parameter space for in vivo safety and efficacy evaluation. This pilot study aimed to evaluate shape change and cutaneous injury following LCR with CO2 cooling in 5 live rabbits. The midportion of live rabbit ears were irradiated with a 1.45 µm wavelength diode laser (12 J/cm(2)) with simultaneous CO2 spray cooling (85 millisecond duration, 4 alternating heating/cooling cycles per site, 5 to 6 irradiation sites per row for 3 rows per ear). Experimental and control ears (no LCR) were splinted in the flexed position for 30 days following exposure. A total of 5 ears each were allocated to the experimental and control groups. Shape change was observed in all irradiated ears (mean 70 ± 3°), which was statistically different from control (mean 37 ± 11°, P = 0.009). No significant thermal cutaneous injury was observed, with preservation of the full thickness of skin, microvasculature, and adnexal structures. Confocal microscopy and histology demonstrated an intact and viable chondrocyte population surrounding irradiated sites. LCR with CO2 spray cooling can produce clinically significant shape change in the rabbit auricle while minimizing thermal cutaneous and cartilaginous injury and frostbite. This pilot study lends support for the potential use of CO2 spray as an adjunct to existing thermal-based cartilage reshaping modalities. An in vivo systematic evaluation of optimal laser dosimetry and cooling parameters is required. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Brain temperature profiles during epidural cooling with the ChillerPad in a monkey model of traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Christopher; Robinson, Timothy; Dixon, C Edward; Rao, Gutti R; Larnard, Donald; Nemoto, C Edwin M

    2010-10-01

    Therapeutic hypothermia remains a promising treatment for patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Multiple animal studies have suggested that hypothermia is neuroprotective after TBI, but clinical trials have been inconclusive. Systemic hypothermia, the method used in almost all major clinical trials, is limited by the time to target temperature, the depth of hypothermia, and complications, problems that may be solved by selective brain cooling. We evaluated the effects on brain temperature of a cooling device called the ChillerPad,™ which is applied to the dura in a non-human primate TBI model using controlled cortical impact (CCI). The cortical surface was rapidly cooled to approximately 15°C and maintained at that level for 24 h, followed by rewarming over about 10 h. Brain temperatures fell to 34-35°C at a depth of 15 mm at the cortical gray/white matter interface, and to 28-32°C at 10 mm deep. Intracranial pressure was mildly elevated (8-12 mm Hg) after cooling and rewarming, likely due to TBI. Other physiological variables were unchanged. Cooling was rapidly diminished at points distant from the cooling pad. The ChillerPad may be useful for highly localized cooling of the brain in circumstances in which a craniotomy is clinically indicated. However, because of the delay required by the craniotomy, other methods that are more readily available for inducing hypothermia may be used as a bridge between the time of injury to placement of the ChillerPad.

  15. Predictive Models for Normal Fetal Cardiac Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Anita; Pike, Jodi I; McCarter, Robert; Fulgium, Amanda L; Wilson, Emmanuel; Donofrio, Mary T; Sable, Craig A

    2016-12-01

    Clinicians rely on age- and size-specific measures of cardiac structures to diagnose cardiac disease. No universally accepted normative data exist for fetal cardiac structures, and most fetal cardiac centers do not use the same standards. The aim of this study was to derive predictive models for Z scores for 13 commonly evaluated fetal cardiac structures using a large heterogeneous population of fetuses without structural cardiac defects. The study used archived normal fetal echocardiograms in representative fetuses aged 12 to 39 weeks. Thirteen cardiac dimensions were remeasured by a blinded echocardiographer from digitally stored clips. Studies with inadequate imaging views were excluded. Regression models were developed to relate each dimension to estimated gestational age (EGA) by dates, biparietal diameter, femur length, and estimated fetal weight by the Hadlock formula. Dimension outcomes were transformed (e.g., using the logarithm or square root) as necessary to meet the normality assumption. Higher order terms, quadratic or cubic, were added as needed to improve model fit. Information criteria and adjusted R 2 values were used to guide final model selection. Each Z-score equation is based on measurements derived from 296 to 414 unique fetuses. EGA yielded the best predictive model for the majority of dimensions; adjusted R 2 values ranged from 0.72 to 0.893. However, each of the other highly correlated (r > 0.94) biometric parameters was an acceptable surrogate for EGA. In most cases, the best fitting model included squared and cubic terms to introduce curvilinearity. For each dimension, models based on EGA provided the best fit for determining normal measurements of fetal cardiac structures. Nevertheless, other biometric parameters, including femur length, biparietal diameter, and estimated fetal weight provided results that were nearly as good. Comprehensive Z-score results are available on the basis of highly predictive models derived from gestational

  16. 2D and 3D Modeling Efforts in Fuel Film Cooling of Liquid Rocket Engines (Conference Paper with Briefing Charts)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-12

    Conference Paper with Briefing Charts 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 17 November 2016 – 12 January 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 2D and 3D Modeling ...98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239.18 2D and 3D Modeling Efforts in Fuel Film Cooling of Liquid Rocket Engines Kevin C. Brown∗, Edward B. Coy†, and...wide. As a consequence, the 3D simulations may better model the experimental setup used, but are perhaps not representative of the long circumferential

  17. Assessment of the consequences of the radioactive contamination of aquatic media and biota for the Chernobyl NPP cooling pond: model testing using Chernobyl data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kryshev, I.I.; Sazykina, T.G.; Hoffman, F.O.; Thiessen, K.M.; Blaylock, B.G.; Feng, Y.; Galeriu, D.; Heling, R.; Kryshev, A.I.; Kononovich, A.L.; Watkins, B.

    1998-01-01

    The 'Cooling Pond' scenario was designed to test models for radioactive contamination of aquatic ecosystems, based on data from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant cooling pond, which was heavily contaminated in 1986 as a result of the reactor accident. The calculation tasks include (a) reconstruction of the dynamics of radionuclide transfer and bioaccumulation in aquatic media and biota following the accident; (b) assessment of doses to aquatic biota; and (c) assessment of potential doses and radiation risks to humans from consumption of contaminated fish. Calculations for the Scenario were performed by 19 participants using 6 different models: LAKECO-B (Netherlands); LAKEPOND (Romania); POSOD (USA); WATER, GIDRO and ECOMOD-W (Russia). For all endpoints, model predictions were compared with the test data, which were derived from the results of direct measurements and independent dose estimates based on measurements. Most of the models gave satisfactory agreement for some portions of the test data, although very few participants obtained good agreement with all criteria for model testing. The greatest level of difficulty was with the prediction of non-equilibrium radioecological processes in the first year after the accident (1986). The calculations 5 for this scenario gave modellers a unique opportunity to test their models using an independent data base and to analyse the advantages and weaknesses of different model approaches. The use of post-Chernobyl data in such a scenario is also recommended for use in training students in the field of radioecology and environmental protection. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  18. Finite element analysis and neural network model for electronic hidden solder joint geometry prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giron Palomares, Jose Benjamin Dolores; Hsieh, Sheng-Jen

    2010-05-01

    This paper investigates an active thermography approach to probing hidden solder joint geometry. Ten boards were fabricated with the same number of solder joints and amount of solder paste (0.061 g), but using three solder joint geometries (60°, 90°, and 120°). The 90° angle solder pin represented a normal joint, and the 60° and 120° angle pins represented abnormal solder joints. Each board was covered with another board that had three openings just big enough to allow the pin terminals to protrude. A semi-automated system was built to heat and then transfer each board set to a chamber where an infrared camera was used to scan the board as it was cooling down. Each board set underwent the heating, cooling, and scanning process for five trials. Two-thirds of the data set was used for model development and one-third for model evaluation. An artificial neural network (ANN) was constructed to predict abnormal joints given thermal data. Results suggest that solder joints with more surface area cool much faster than those with less surface area. A Finite Element Analysis (FEA) of the heating up and cooling down process consistently predicted solder geometry using the ANN with 86% accuracy. This approach can be used not only to inspect bad solder joints (i.e., low reliability) but also to mass screen for cold solder joints during BGA assembly, since the air gaps in cold solder joints may cause them to cool more slowly than normal joints.

  19. An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric

    2005-01-01

    As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test

  20. Real-Time, Model-Based Spray-Cooling Control System for Steel Continuous Casting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrus, Bryan; Zheng, Kai; Zhou, X.; Thomas, Brian G.; Bentsman, Joseph

    2011-02-01

    This article presents a new system to control secondary cooling water sprays in continuous casting of thin steel slabs (CONONLINE). It uses real-time numerical simulation of heat transfer and solidification within the strand as a software sensor in place of unreliable temperature measurements. The one-dimensional finite-difference model, CON1D, is adapted to create the real-time predictor of the slab temperature and solidification state. During operation, the model is updated with data collected by the caster automation systems. A decentralized controller configuration based on a bank of proportional-integral controllers with antiwindup is developed to maintain the shell surface-temperature profile at a desired set point. A new method of set-point generation is proposed to account for measured mold heat flux variations. A user-friendly monitor visualizes the results and accepts set-point changes from the caster operator. Example simulations demonstrate how a significantly better shell surface-temperature control is achieved.

  1. Analysis of the effect of renal excretory system cooling during thermal radiofrequency ablation in an animal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre Meireles

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Analysis of renal excretory system integrity and efficacy of radiofrequency ablation with and without irrigation with saline at 2 o C (SF2. Materials and Methods: The median third of sixteen kidneys were submitted to radiofrequency (exposition of 1 cm controlled by intra-surgical ultrasound, with eight minutes cycles and median temperature of 90 o C in eight female pigs. One excretory renal system was cooled with SF2, at a 30ml/min rate, and the other kidney was not. After 14 days of post-operatory, the biggest diameters of the lesions and the radiological aspects of the excretory system were compared by bilateral ascending pyelogram and the animals were sacrificed in order to perform histological analysis. Results: There were no significant differences between the diameters of the kidney lesions whether or not exposed to cooling of the excretory system. Median diameter of the cooled kidneys and not cooled kidneys were respectively (in mm: anteroposterior: 11.46 vs. 12.5 (p = 0.23; longitudinal: 17.94 vs. 18.84 (p = 0.62; depth: 11.38 vs. 12.25 (p = 0.47. There was no lesion of the excretory system or signs of leakage of contrast media or hydronephrosis at ascending pyelogram. Conclusion: Cooling of excretory system during radiofrequency ablation does not significantly alter generated coagulation necrosis or affect the integrity of the excretory system in the studied model.

  2. Analysis of the effect of renal excretory system cooling during thermal radiofrequency ablation in an animal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meireles, André; Taha, Khaled Ahmed Neto; Castilho, Lísias Nogueira; D'Ippolito, Giuseppe; Reis, Leonardo Oliveira

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of renal excretory system integrity and efficacy of radiofrequency ablation with and without irrigation with saline at 2°C (SF2). The median third of sixteen kidneys were submitted to radiofrequency (exposition of 1 cm) controlled by intra-surgical ultrasound, with eight minutes cycles and median temperature of 90°C in eight female pigs. One excretory renal system was cooled with SF2, at a 30mL/min rate, and the other kidney was not. After 14 days of post-operatory, the biggest diameters of the lesions and the radiological aspects of the excretory system were compared by bilateral ascending pyelogram and the animals were sacrificed in order to perform histological analysis. There were no significant differences between the diameters of the kidney lesions whether or not exposed to cooling of the excretory system. Median diameter of the cooled kidneys and not cooled kidneys were respectively (in mm): anteroposterior: 11.46 vs. 12.5 (p = 0.23); longitudinal: 17.94 vs. 18.84 (p = 0.62); depth: 11.38 vs. 12.25 (p = 0.47). There was no lesion of the excretory system or signs of leakage of contrast media or hydronephrosis at ascending pyelogram. Cooling of excretory system during radiofrequency ablation does not sig¬nificantly alter generated coagulation necrosis or affect the integrity of the excretory system in the studied model.

  3. Web tools for predictive toxicology model building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeliazkova, Nina

    2012-07-01

    The development and use of web tools in chemistry has accumulated more than 15 years of history already. Powered by the advances in the Internet technologies, the current generation of web systems are starting to expand into areas, traditional for desktop applications. The web platforms integrate data storage, cheminformatics and data analysis tools. The ease of use and the collaborative potential of the web is compelling, despite the challenges. The topic of this review is a set of recently published web tools that facilitate predictive toxicology model building. The focus is on software platforms, offering web access to chemical structure-based methods, although some of the frameworks could also provide bioinformatics or hybrid data analysis functionalities. A number of historical and current developments are cited. In order to provide comparable assessment, the following characteristics are considered: support for workflows, descriptor calculations, visualization, modeling algorithms, data management and data sharing capabilities, availability of GUI or programmatic access and implementation details. The success of the Web is largely due to its highly decentralized, yet sufficiently interoperable model for information access. The expected future convergence between cheminformatics and bioinformatics databases provides new challenges toward management and analysis of large data sets. The web tools in predictive toxicology will likely continue to evolve toward the right mix of flexibility, performance, scalability, interoperability, sets of unique features offered, friendly user interfaces, programmatic access for advanced users, platform independence, results reproducibility, curation and crowdsourcing utilities, collaborative sharing and secure access.

  4. [Endometrial cancer: Predictive models and clinical impact].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendifallah, Sofiane; Ballester, Marcos; Daraï, Emile

    2017-12-01

    In France, in 2015, endometrial cancer (CE) is the first gynecological cancer in terms of incidence and the fourth cause of cancer of the woman. About 8151 new cases and nearly 2179 deaths have been reported. Treatments (surgery, external radiotherapy, brachytherapy and chemotherapy) are currently delivered on the basis of an estimation of the recurrence risk, an estimation of lymph node metastasis or an estimate of survival probability. This risk is determined on the basis of prognostic factors (clinical, histological, imaging, biological) taken alone or grouped together in the form of classification systems, which are currently insufficient to account for the evolutionary and prognostic heterogeneity of endometrial cancer. For endometrial cancer, the concept of mathematical modeling and its application to prediction have developed in recent years. These biomathematical tools have opened a new era of care oriented towards the promotion of targeted therapies and personalized treatments. Many predictive models have been published to estimate the risk of recurrence and lymph node metastasis, but a tiny fraction of them is sufficiently relevant and of clinical utility. The optimization tracks are multiple and varied, suggesting the possibility in the near future of a place for these mathematical models. The development of high-throughput genomics is likely to offer a more detailed molecular characterization of the disease and its heterogeneity. Copyright © 2017 Société Française du Cancer. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  5. Predictive Capability Maturity Model for computational modeling and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberkampf, William Louis; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.

    2007-10-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six contributing elements to M&S: (1) representation and geometric fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) model validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. For each of these elements, attributes are identified that characterize four increasing levels of maturity. Importantly, the PCMM is a structured method for assessing the maturity of an M&S effort that is directed toward an engineering application of interest. The PCMM does not assess whether the M&S effort, the accuracy of the predictions, or the performance of the engineering system satisfies or does not satisfy specified application requirements.

  6. Modelling three-dimensional-quench cooling for alkaline-earth atoms

    CERN Document Server

    Mehlstaeubler, T E; Douillet, A; Rehbein, N; Rasel, E M; Ertmer, W

    2003-01-01

    Quench cooling is a promising technique to reach ultra-cold temperatures in alkaline-earth atoms by Doppler cooling on ultra-narrow transitions. The principles of quench cooling are derived from an effective two-level system with a linewidth adjustable by the quenching laser. A tunable linewidth reconciles the contradictory requirements of a fast cooling rate and a high velocity selectivity at high and low temperatures, respectively. In this paper, we investigate the efficiency of quench cooling in alkaline-earth systems. We present a one-dimensional analytical description of the quenching process. Cooling and trapping in three dimensions is studied with semi-classical Monte Carlo simulations. Our results for magnesium indicate a loading efficiency of up to 40% of pre-cooled atoms at 2 mK into a QuenchMOT. Final temperatures of 9 mu K and an increase in phase-space density by almost five orders of magnitude are observed in the simulations.

  7. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  8. Investigation of heat transfer and flow using ribs within gas turbine blade cooling passage: Experimental and hybrid LES/RANS modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sourabh

    temperature prediction which can be applied routinely in the design stage of turbine cooled vanes and blades. This study presents an attempt to collect information about Nusselt number inside the ribbed duct and a series of measurement is performed in steady state eliminating the error sources inherently connected with transient method. A Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is carried out on the best V and Broken V rib arrangements to analyze the flow pattern inside the channel. A novel method is devised to analyze the results obtained from CFD simulation. Hybrid LES/Reynolds Averaged Navier Strokes (RANS) modeling is used to modify Reynolds stresses using Algebraic Stress Model (ASM).

  9. Modelling of the passive cooling containment system: European Incon Project; Modelacion del sistema de refrigeracion pasivo de contencion proyecto europeo INCON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibarrondo, M. J.; Lucas, A. M.; Perezagua, R. L. [Empresarios Agrupados, A. I. E. Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    The containment system plays a key role in the prevention and mitigation of severe accidents. For this reason, the European Utility Requirements (EUR) stress the importance of developing innovative designs which address important technological challenges. Among the different design options, a double concrete containment with a passive cooling containment system (PCCS) has been proposed. This system consists of three integrated components: an internal heat exchanger (located inside the primary containment), an external heat exchanger, and and intermediate exchanger (to connect the other two). The INCON (INnnovative CONtainmente Cooling for Double Concrete Containment) project aims to demonstrate the technical viability of the PCCS concept by means of a series of tests and simulations. One of the project's achievements is the identification and characterisation of the heat transfer phenomenon in the three integrated heat exchangers. One of the tasks within the INCON project was to obtain a validated thermohydraulic simulation model of the PCCS system intermediate heat exchanger. As a result, a model has been developed, based on the RELAP5/MOD3.2 code, which is capable of analysing and simulating the thermohydraulic behaviour of a scale test model of the system. The model has the capacity to predict special effects such as back flow, system behaviour with entrapped air, high heat transfer phenomena (simulating hydrogen explosions), startup, etc, giving simulation results, set out in this paper, which are comparable to the results obtained from the tests. (Author)

  10. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.

  11. Combining GPS measurements and IRI model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Juan, J.M.; Sanz, J.; Bilitza, D.

    2002-01-01

    The free electrons distributed in the ionosphere (between one hundred and thousands of km in height) produce a frequency-dependent effect on Global Positioning System (GPS) signals: a delay in the pseudo-orange and an advance in the carrier phase. These effects are proportional to the columnar electron density between the satellite and receiver, i.e. the integrated electron density along the ray path. Global ionospheric TEC (total electron content) maps can be obtained with GPS data from a network of ground IGS (international GPS service) reference stations with an accuracy of few TEC units. The comparison with the TOPEX TEC, mainly measured over the oceans far from the IGS stations, shows a mean bias and standard deviation of about 2 and 5 TECUs respectively. The discrepancies between the STEC predictions and the observed values show an RMS typically below 5 TECUs (which also includes the alignment code noise). he existence of a growing database 2-hourly global TEC maps and with resolution of 5x2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude can be used to improve the IRI prediction capability of the TEC. When the IRI predictions and the GPS estimations are compared for a three month period around the Solar Maximum, they are in good agreement for middle latitudes. An over-determination of IRI TEC has been found at the extreme latitudes, the IRI predictions being, typically two times higher than the GPS estimations. Finally, local fits of the IRI model can be done by tuning the SSN from STEC GPS observations

  12. Mathematical models for indoor radon prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malanca, A.; Pessina, V.; Dallara, G.

    1995-01-01

    It is known that the indoor radon (Rn) concentration can be predicted by means of mathematical models. The simplest model relies on two variables only: the Rn source strength and the air exchange rate. In the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) model several environmental parameters are combined into a complex equation; besides, a correlation between the ventilation rate and the Rn entry rate from the soil is admitted. The measurements were carried out using activated carbon canisters. Seventy-five measurements of Rn concentrations were made inside two rooms placed on the second floor of a building block. One of the rooms had a single-glazed window whereas the other room had a double pane window. During three different experimental protocols, the mean Rn concentration was always higher into the room with a double-glazed window. That behavior can be accounted for by the simplest model. A further set of 450 Rn measurements was collected inside a ground-floor room with a grounding well in it. This trend maybe accounted for by the LBL model

  13. A Predictive Maintenance Model for Railway Tracks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Rui; Wen, Min; Salling, Kim Bang

    2015-01-01

    presents a mathematical model based on Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) which is designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballasted track for the time horizon up to four years. The objective function is setup to minimize the actual costs for the tamping machine (measured by time......). Five technical and economic aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality...... recovery on the track quality after tamping operation and (5) Tamping machine operation factors. A Danish railway track between Odense and Fredericia with 57.2 km of length is applied for a time period of two to four years in the proposed maintenance model. The total cost can be reduced with up to 50...

  14. Modeling possible cooling-water intake system impacts on Ohio River fish populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Elgin; Seegert, Greg; Vondruska, Joe; Lohner, Timothy; Lewis, Randy

    2002-04-26

    To assess the possible impacts caused by cooling-water intake system entrainment and impingement losses, populations of six target fish species near power plants on the Ohio River were modeled. A Leslie matrix model was constructed to allow an evaluation of bluegill, freshwater drum, emerald shiner, gizzard shad, sauger, and white bass populations within five river pools. Site-specific information on fish abundance and length-frequency distribution was obtained from long-term Ohio River Ecological Research Program and Ohio River Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) electrofishing monitoring programs. Entrainment and impingement data were obtained from 316(b) demonstrations previously completed at eight Ohio River power plants. The model was first run under a scenario representative of current conditions, which included fish losses due to entrainment and impingement. The model was then rerun with these losses added back into the populations, representative of what would happen if all entrainment and impingement losses were eliminated. The model was run to represent a 50-year time period, which is a typical life span for an Ohio River coal-fired power plant. Percent changes between populations modeled with and without entrainment and impingement losses in each pool were compared to the mean interannual coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of normal fish population variability. In 6 of the 22 scenarios of fish species and river pools that were evaluated (6 species x 5 river pools, minus 8 species/river pool combinations that could not be evaluated due to insufficient fish data), the projected fish population change was greater than the expected variability of the existing fish population, indicating a possible adverse environmental impact. Given the number of other variables affecting fish populations and the conservative modeling approach, which assumed 100% mortality for all entrained fish and eggs, it was concluded that the likelihood of impact was by no means

  15. Modeling Possible Cooling-Water Intake System Impacts on Ohio River Fish Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elgin Perry

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available To assess the possible impacts caused by cooling-water intake system entrainment and impingement losses, populations of six target fish species near power plants on the Ohio River were modeled. A Leslie matrix model was constructed to allow an evaluation of bluegill, freshwater drum, emerald shiner, gizzard shad, sauger, and white bass populations within five river pools. Site-specific information on fish abundance and length-frequency distribution was obtained from long-term Ohio River Ecological Research Program and Ohio River Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO electrofishing monitoring programs. Entrainment and impingement data were obtained from 316(b demonstrations previously completed at eight Ohio River power plants. The model was first run under a scenario representative of current conditions, which included fish losses due to entrainment and impingement. The model was then rerun with these losses added back into the populations, representative of what would happen if all entrainment and impingement losses were eliminated. The model was run to represent a 50-year time period, which is a typical life span for an Ohio River coal-fired power plant. Percent changes between populations modeled with and without entrainment and impingement losses in each pool were compared to the mean interannual coefficient of variation (CV, a measure of normal fish population variability. In 6 of the 22 scenarios of fish species and river pools that were evaluated (6 species × 5 river pools, minus 8 species/river pool combinations that could not be evaluated due to insufficient fish data, the projected fish population change was greater than the expected variability of the existing fish population, indicating a possible adverse environmental impact. Given the number of other variables affecting fish populations and the conservative modeling approach, which assumed 100% mortality for all entrained fish and eggs, it was concluded that the likelihood of impact was

  16. Nuclear data libraries assessment for modelling a small fluoride salt-cooled, high-temperature reactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, Hassan; Lindley, Benjamin; Parks, Geoffrey

    2017-01-01

    Nuclear data consists of measured or evaluated probabilities of various fundamental physical interactions involving the nuclei of atoms and their properties. Most fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) studies that were reviewed do not give detailed information on the data libraries used in their assessments. Therefore, the main objective of this data libraries comparison study is to investigate whether there are any significant discrepancies between main data libraries, namely ENDF/B-VII, JEFF-3.1 and JEF-2.2. Knowing the discrepancies, especially its magnitude, is important and relevant for readers as to whether further cautions are necessary for any future verification or validation processes when modelling an FHR. The study is performed using AMEC's reactor physics software tool, WIMS. The WIMS calculation is simply a 2-D infinite lattice of fuel assembly calculation. The comparison between the data libraries in terms of infinite multiplication factor, kinf and pin power map are presented. Results show that the discrepancy between JEFF-3.1 and ENDF/B-VII libraries is reasonably small but increases as the fuel depletes due to the data libraries uncertainties that are accumulated at each burnup step. Additionally, there are large discrepancies between JEF-2.2 and ENDF/B-VII because of the inadequacy of the JEF-2.2 library.

  17. Numerical modelling of phase-change material used for PV panels cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellami, Assia; Elotmani, Rabie; Kandoussi, Khalid; Eljouad, Mohamed; Hajjaji, Abdelowahed; Boutaous, M'Hamed

    2017-12-01

    Passive cooling of a PV solar panel using phase-change material (PCM) may play an important role in increasing efficiency of PV cells. Because it does not need a maintenance and does not release greenhouses gases, PCM seems to be a good way to decrease the among of overheating of PV cell. The aims of this paper describes a detailed multiphysical issue in order to understand the effect of PCM (RT25) in keeping PV cell temperature close to ambient. The study is focused on modeling the heat and mass transfer in a PCM domain by modifying the buoyancy term in momentum equation. Due to a phase-change and free convection, transient incompressible flow is taken into account to explain the dynamic variations of the velocity profile and viscosity distribution. With standard condition of irradiation and heat flux on both sides of the PV panel, a melt front has been tracked by the energy equation, which gives a good argument for the temperature evolution during phase-change.

  18. Impact of bacterial ice nucleating particles on weather predicted by a numerical weather prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahyoun, Maher; Korsholm, Ulrik S.; Sørensen, Jens H.; Šantl-Temkiv, Tina; Finster, Kai; Gosewinkel, Ulrich; Nielsen, Niels W.

    2017-12-01

    Bacterial ice-nucleating particles (INP) have the ability to facilitate ice nucleation from super-cooled cloud droplets at temperatures just below the melting point. Bacterial INP have been detected in cloud water, precipitation, and dry air, hence they may have an impact on weather and climate. In modeling studies, the potential impact of bacteria on ice nucleation and precipitation formation on global scale is still uncertain due to their small concentration compared to other types of INP, i.e. dust. Those earlier studies did not account for the yet undetected high concentration of nanoscale fragments of bacterial INP, which may be found free or attached to soil dust in the atmosphere. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled cloud ice, precipitation and global solar radiation in different weather scenarios to changes in the fraction of cloud droplets containing bacterial INP, regardless of their size. For this purpose, a module that calculates the probability of ice nucleation as a function of ice nucleation rate and bacterial INP fraction was developed and implemented in a numerical weather prediction model. The threshold value for the fraction of cloud droplets containing bacterial INP needed to produce a 1% increase in cloud ice was determined at 10-5 to 10-4. We also found that increasing this fraction causes a perturbation in the forecast, leading to significant differences in cloud ice and smaller differences in convective and total precipitation and in net solar radiation reaching the surface. These effects were most pronounced in local convective events. Our results show that bacterial INP can be considered as a trigger factor for precipitation, but not an enhancement factor.

  19. An Operational Model for the Prediction of Jet Blast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-09

    This paper presents an operational model for the prediction of jet blast. The model was : developed based upon three modules including a jet exhaust model, jet centerline decay : model and aircraft motion model. The final analysis was compared with d...

  20. Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vliet, M. T H; van Beek, L. P H; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F P

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding

  1. Wave-Optics Modeling of the Optical-Transport Line for Passive Optical Stochastic Cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andorf, M. B. [NICADD, DeKalb; Lebedev, V. A. [Fermilab; Piot, P. [Fermilab; Ruan, J. [Fermilab

    2018-03-01

    Optical stochastic cooling (OSC) is expected to enable fast cooling of dense particle beams. Transition from microwave to optical frequencies enables an achievement of stochastic cooling rates which are orders of magnitude higher than ones achievable with the classical microwave based stochastic cooling systems. A subsytem critical to the OSC scheme is the focusing optics used to image radiation from the upstream "pickup" undulator to the downstream "kicker" undulator. In this paper, we present simulation results using wave-optics calculation carried out with the {\\sc Synchrotron Radiation Workshop} (SRW). Our simulations are performed in support to a proof-of-principle experiment planned at the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) at Fermilab. The calculations provide an estimate of the energy kick received by a 100-MeV electron as it propagates in the kicker undulator and interacts with the electromagnetic pulse it radiated at an earlier time while traveling through the pickup undulator.

  2. Multi-Phase Methane Heat Transfer Testing/Modeling for Regenerative Cooling

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This proposal is to conduct a laboratory scale study of regeneratively cooled rocket engine heat transfer using methane. Measurements will include fluid and wall...

  3. Wave-optics modeling of the optical-transport line for passive optical stochastic cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andorf, M. B.; Lebedev, V. A.; Piot, P.; Ruan, J.

    2018-03-01

    Optical stochastic cooling (OSC) is expected to enable fast cooling of dense particle beams. Transition from microwave to optical frequencies enables an achievement of stochastic cooling rates which are orders of magnitude higher than ones achievable with the classical microwave based stochastic cooling systems. A subsystemcritical to the OSC scheme is the focusing optics used to image radiation from the upstream "pickup" undulator to the downstream "kicker" undulator. In this paper, we present simulation results using wave-optics calculation carried out with the SYNCHROTRON RADIATION WORKSHOP (SRW). Our simulations are performed in support to a proof-of-principle experiment planned at the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) at Fermilab. The calculations provide an estimate of the energy kick received by a 100-MeV electron as it propagates in the kicker undulator and interacts with the electromagnetic pulse it radiated at an earlier time while traveling through the pickup undulator.

  4. Model calculations of the space and time distribution of cooling tower clouds on the basis of aerological data delivered by the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudolf, B.

    1983-01-01

    Based on a large amount of aerological data, the simulation model for cooling tower cloud propagation Smoka has been used to allow for a statistical evaluation of the influence of cooling towers. In addition to local differences, the annual and daily variations in the formation of clouds can be obtained together with the dependence on the cloud coverage conditions and the cooling tower characteristics. With these model calculations of the cooling tower clouds, the respective decrease in sunshine duration can be evaluated. (orig.) [de

  5. Prediction of Continuous Cooling Diagrams for the Precision Forged Tempering Steel 50CrMo4 by Means of Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Nürnberger

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Quenching and tempering of precision forged components using their forging heat leads to reduced process energy and shortens the usual process chains. To design such a process, neither the isothermal transformation diagrams (TTT nor the continuous cooling transformation (CCT diagrams from literature can be used to predict microstructural transformations during quenching since the latter diagrams are significantly influenced by previous deformations and process-related high austenitising temperatures. For this reason, deformation CCT diagrams for several tempering steels from previous works have been investigated taking into consideration the process conditions of precision forging. Within the scope of the present work, these diagrams are used as input data for predicting microstructural transformations by means of artificial neural networks. Several artificial neural network structures have been examined using the commercial software MATLAB. Predictors have been established with satisfactory capabilities for predicting CCT diagrams for different degrees of deformation within the analyzed range of data.

  6. Simulation model of a single-stage lithium bromide-water absorption cooling unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, D.

    1978-01-01

    A computer model of a LiBr-H2O single-stage absorption machine was developed. The model, utilizing a given set of design data such as water-flow rates and inlet or outlet temperatures of these flow rates but without knowing the interior characteristics of the machine (heat transfer rates and surface areas), can be used to predict or simulate off-design performance. Results from 130 off-design cases for a given commercial machine agree with the published data within 2 percent.

  7. Diagnostics of Hydrogen-Containing Mixture Compression by a Two-Stage Piston Compressor with Cooling Demand Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Brestovič

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The present article describes the diagnostics of a compressor that is compressing a mixture of H2 and N2 on the basis of the results that were obtained by operational measurements of the flow rates and temperatures at selected compressor sites, as well as of the acoustic pressure levels during the full loading thereof. The obtained data were subsequently used to determine the limit conditions of the compressor operations in terms of the cooling capacity. A thermodynamic analysis of the compression of the H2/N2 gas mixture was carried out with subsequent heat and energy flow calculation and the determination of the minimum cooling water flow rate that is required to ensure the continuous compressor operations.

  8. A simplified heat transfer model for predicting temperature change inside food package kept in cold room.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raval, A H; Solanki, S C; Yadav, Rajvir

    2013-04-01

    A simple analytical heat flow model for a closed rectangular food package containing fruits or vegetables is proposed for predicting time temperature distribution during transient cooling in a controlled environment cold room. It is based on the assumption of only conductive heat transfer inside a closed food package with effective thermal properties, and convective and radiative heat transfer at the outside of the package. The effective thermal conductivity of the food package is determined by evaluating its effective thermal resistance to heat conduction in the packages. Food packages both as an infinite slab and a finite slab have been investigated. The finite slab solution has been obtained as the product of three infinite slab solutions describe in ASHRAE guide and data book. Time temperature variation has been determined and is presented graphically. The cooling rate and the half cooling time were also obtained. These predicted values, are compared with the experimentally measured values for both the finite and infinite closed packages containing oranges. An excellent agreement between them validated the simple proposed model.

  9. Continuous-Discrete Time Prediction-Error Identification Relevant for Linear Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    A Prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...... model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model...

  10. Thermodynamic modelling and performance study of an engine waste heat driven adsorption cooling for automotive air-conditioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, Syed Muztuza; Chakraborty, Anutosh

    2015-01-01

    Waste heat from engine can be utilized to drive an adsorption cooling system for air conditioning purposes in the vehicle cabin, which not only improves the fuel economy but also reduces the carbon footprint. It is also important to reduce the size of the adsorption bed to adopt the adsorption technology for air-conditioning applications in passenger cars, buses and trucks or even trains. In this article, we present a two stage indirect exhaust heat recovery system of automotive engine employing an effective lumped parameter model to simulate the dynamic behaviors of an adsorption chiller that ranges from the transient to the cyclic steady states. The thermodynamic framework of adsorption chiller is developed from the rigor of mass and energy balances of each component of the system and experimentally confirmed isotherms and kinetics data of various adsorbent–adsorbate pairs. The performance factors are calculated in terms of COP (Coefficient of Performance) and SCP (Specific Cooling Power) for different operating parameters such as cycle time, exhaust gas temperatures, cooling water temperatures and flow rates. From the simulation results, it is found that the exhaust energy of a six cylinder 3000 cc private car is able to produce nearly 3 kW of cooling power for the car cabin. It is also observed that the driving heat source temperature does not remain constant throughout the cycle time unlike the conventional adsorption chiller, and the hot water temperatures as driving source vary from 65 to 95 °C. CaCl 2 -in-silica gel–water system is found better in terms of COP and SCP as compared with other adsorbents – water systems. - Highlights: • Adsorption cooling for car air conditioning. • Thermodynamic frameworks with adsorption isotherms and kinetics. • Various adsorbents such as silica gel, zeolites (AQSOA-Z01, Z-02), CaCl 2 -in-silica gel are tested. • Cooling power for car cabin employing waste heat recovery.

  11. A comparative analysis of reactor lower head debris cooling models employed in the existing severe accident analysis codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, K.I.; Kim, D.H.; Kim, S.B.; Kim, H.D.

    1998-08-01

    MELCOR and MAAP4 are the representative severe accident analysis codes which have been developed for the integral analysis of the phenomenological reactor lower head corium cooling behavior. Main objectives of the present study is to identify merits and disadvantages of each relevant model through the comparative analysis of the lower plenum corium cooling models employed in these two codes. The final results will be utilized for the development of LILAC phenomenological models and for the continuous improvement of the existing MELCOR reactor lower head models, which are currently being performed at the KAERI. For these purposes, first, nine reference models are selected featuring the lower head corium behavior based on the existing experimental evidences and related models. Then main features of the selected models have been critically analyzed, and finally merits and disadvantages of each corresponding model have been summarized in the view point of realistic corium behavior and reasonable modeling. Being on these evidences, summarized and presented the potential improvements for developing more advanced models. The present study has been focused on the qualitative comparison of each model and so more detailed quantitative analysis is strongly required to obtain the final conclusions for their merits and disadvantages. In addition, in order to compensate the limitations of the current model, required further studies relating closely the detailed mechanistic models with the molten material movement and heat transfer based on phase-change in the porous medium, to the existing simple models. (author). 36 refs

  12. Passive Cooling of Body Armor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtz, Ronald; Matic, Peter; Mott, David

    2013-03-01

    Warfighter performance can be adversely affected by heat load and weight of equipment. Current tactical vest designs are good insulators and lack ventilation, thus do not provide effective management of metabolic heat generated. NRL has undertaken a systematic study of tactical vest thermal management, leading to physics-based strategies that provide improved cooling without undesirable consequences such as added weight, added electrical power requirements, or compromised protection. The approach is based on evaporative cooling of sweat produced by the wearer of the vest, in an air flow provided by ambient wind or ambulatory motion of the wearer. Using an approach including thermodynamic analysis, computational fluid dynamics modeling, air flow measurements of model ventilated vest architectures, and studies of the influence of fabric aerodynamic drag characteristics, materials and geometry were identified that optimize passive cooling of tactical vests. Specific architectural features of the vest design allow for optimal ventilation patterns, and selection of fabrics for vest construction optimize evaporation rates while reducing air flow resistance. Cooling rates consistent with the theoretical and modeling predictions were verified experimentally for 3D mockups.

  13. UHS, Ultimate Heat Sink Cooling Pond Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Codell, R.; Nuttle, W.K.

    1998-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: Three programs model performance of an ultimate heat sink cooling pond. National Weather Service data is read and analyzed to predict periods of lowest cooling performance and highest evaporative loss. The data is compared to local site data for significant differences. Then the maximum pond temperature is predicted. Five programs model performance of an ultimate heat sink spray pond. The cooling performance, evaporative water loss, and drift water loss as a function of wind speed are estimated for a spray field. These estimates are used in conjunction with National Weather Service data to predict periods of lowest cooling performance and highest evaporative loss. This data is compared to local site data for significant differences. Then the maximum pond temperature is predicted. 2 - Method of solution: The transfer of heat and water vapor is modeled using an equilibrium temperature procedure for an UHS cooling pond. The UHS spray pond model considers heat, mass, and momentum transfer from a single water drop with the surrounding air, and modification of the surrounding air resulting from the heat, mass, and momentum transfer from many drops in different parts of a spray field. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The program SPRCO uses RANF, a uniform random number generator which is an intrinsic function on the CDC. All programs except COMET use the NAMELIST statement, which is non standard. Otherwise these programs conform to the ANSI Fortran 77 standard. The meteorological data scanning procedure requires tens of years of recorded data to be effective. The models and methods, provided as useful tool for UHS analyses of cooling ponds and spray ponds, are intended as guidelines only. Use of these methods does not automatically assure NRC approval, nor are they required procedures for nuclear-power-plant licensing

  14. Three dimensional modeling on airflow, heat and mass transfer in partially impermeable enclosure containing agricultural produce during natural convective cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chourasia, M.K.; Goswami, T.K.

    2007-01-01

    A three dimensional model was developed to simulate the transport phenomena in heat and mass generating porous medium cooled under natural convective environment. Unlike the previous works on this aspect, the present model was aimed for bulk stored agricultural produce contained in a permeable package placed on a hard surface. This situation made the bottom of the package impermeable to fluid flow as well as moisture transfer and adiabatic to heat transfer. The velocity vectors, isotherms and contours of rate of moisture loss were presented during transient cooling as well as at steady state using the commercially available computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code based on the finite volume technique. The CFD model was validated using the experimental data on the time-temperature history as well as weight loss obtained from a bag of potatoes kept in a cold store. The simulated and experimental values on temperature and moisture loss of the product were found to be in good agreement

  15. Predictive modeling: potential application in prevention services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Moira L; Tumen, Sarah; Ota, Rissa; Simmers, Anthony G

    2015-05-01

    In 2012, the New Zealand Government announced a proposal to introduce predictive risk models (PRMs) to help professionals identify and assess children at risk of abuse or neglect as part of a preventive early intervention strategy, subject to further feasibility study and trialing. The purpose of this study is to examine technical feasibility and predictive validity of the proposal, focusing on a PRM that would draw on population-wide linked administrative data to identify newborn children who are at high priority for intensive preventive services. Data analysis was conducted in 2013 based on data collected in 2000-2012. A PRM was developed using data for children born in 2010 and externally validated for children born in 2007, examining outcomes to age 5 years. Performance of the PRM in predicting administratively recorded substantiations of maltreatment was good compared to the performance of other tools reviewed in the literature, both overall, and for indigenous Māori children. Some, but not all, of the children who go on to have recorded substantiations of maltreatment could be identified early using PRMs. PRMs should be considered as a potential complement to, rather than a replacement for, professional judgment. Trials are needed to establish whether risks can be mitigated and PRMs can make a positive contribution to frontline practice, engagement in preventive services, and outcomes for children. Deciding whether to proceed to trial requires balancing a range of considerations, including ethical and privacy risks and the risk of compounding surveillance bias. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Field studies of submerged-diffuser thermal plumes with comparisons to predictive model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigo, A.A.; Paddock, R.A.; Ditmars, J.D.

    1976-01-01

    Thermal plumes from submerged discharges of cooling water from two power plants on Lake Michigan were studied. The system for the acquisition of water temperatures and ambient conditions permitted the three-dimensional structure of the plumes to be determined. The Zion Nuclear Power Station has two submerged discharge structures separated by only 94 m. Under conditions of flow from both structures, interaction between the two plumes resulted in larger thermal fields than would be predicted by the superposition of single non-interacting plumes. Maximum temperatures in the near-field region of the plume compared favorably with mathematical model predictions. A comparison of physical-model predictions for the plume at the D. C. Cook Nuclear Plant with prototype measurements indicated good agreement in the near-field region, but differences in the far-field occurred as similitude was not preserved there

  17. Reactor Vessel External Cooling for Corium Retention SULTAN Experimental Program and Modelling with CATHARE Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rouge, S.; Dor, I.; Geffraye, G.

    1999-01-01

    In case of severe accident, a molten pool may form at the bottom of the lower head, and some pessimistic scenarios estimate that heat fluxes up to 1.5 MW/m 2 should be transferred through the vessel wall. An efficient, though completely passive, removal of heat flux during a long time is necessary to prevent total wall ablation, and a possible solution is to flood the cavity with water and establish boiling in natural convection. High heat exchanges are expected, especially if the system design (deflector along the vessel, riser...) emphasize water natural circulation, but are unfortunately limited by the critical heat flux phenomena (CHF). CHF data are very scarce in the adequate range of hydraulic and geometric parameters and are clearly dependent of the system effect in natural convection. The system effect can both modify flow velocity and two phase flow regimes, counter-current phenomena and flow static or dynamic instabilities. The SULTAN experimental program purpose was of two kinds, increasing CHF data for realistic situations, and improving the modeling of large 3D two phase flow circuits in natural convection. The CATHARE thermal-hydraulic code is used for interpreting the data and for extrapolation to real geometry. As a first step, a one-dimensional model is used. It is shown that some closure laws have to be improved. Reasonable predictions may be obtained but, for some test conditions, multi-dimensional effects such as recirculation appear to be dominant. Therefore the 3-dimensional module of CATHARE is also used to investigate these effects. This model well predicts qualitatively the existence and the development of a 2-phase layer along the heated wall as well as the existence of a recirculation zone. But modelling problems still require further development as part of a long term program for a better prediction of multi-dimensional two-phase flows

  18. Heuristic Modeling for TRMM Lifetime Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, P. S.; Sharer, P. J.; DeFazio, R. L.

    1996-01-01

    Analysis time for computing the expected mission lifetimes of proposed frequently maneuvering, tightly altitude constrained, Earth orbiting spacecraft have been significantly reduced by means of a heuristic modeling method implemented in a commercial-off-the-shelf spreadsheet product (QuattroPro) running on a personal computer (PC). The method uses a look-up table to estimate the maneuver frequency per month as a function of the spacecraft ballistic coefficient and the solar flux index, then computes the associated fuel use by a simple engine model. Maneuver frequency data points are produced by means of a single 1-month run of traditional mission analysis software for each of the 12 to 25 data points required for the table. As the data point computations are required only a mission design start-up and on the occasion of significant mission redesigns, the dependence on time consuming traditional modeling methods is dramatically reduced. Results to date have agreed with traditional methods to within 1 to 1.5 percent. The spreadsheet approach is applicable to a wide variety of Earth orbiting spacecraft with tight altitude constraints. It will be particularly useful to such missions as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission scheduled for launch in 1997, whose mission lifetime calculations are heavily dependent on frequently revised solar flux predictions.

  19. A Computational Model for Predicting Gas Breakdown

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Zachary

    2017-10-01

    Pulsed-inductive discharges are a common method of producing a plasma. They provide a mechanism for quickly and efficiently generating a large volume of plasma for rapid use and are seen in applications including propulsion, fusion power, and high-power lasers. However, some common designs see a delayed response time due to the plasma forming when the magnitude of the magnetic field in the thruster is at a minimum. New designs are difficult to evaluate due to the amount of time needed to construct a new geometry and the high monetary cost of changing the power generation circuit. To more quickly evaluate new designs and better understand the shortcomings of existing designs, a computational model is developed. This model uses a modified single-electron model as the basis for a Mathematica code to determine how the energy distribution in a system changes with regards to time and location. By analyzing this energy distribution, the approximate time and location of initial plasma breakdown can be predicted. The results from this code are then compared to existing data to show its validity and shortcomings. Missouri S&T APLab.

  20. Distributed model predictive control made easy

    CERN Document Server

    Negenborn, Rudy

    2014-01-01

    The rapid evolution of computer science, communication, and information technology has enabled the application of control techniques to systems beyond the possibilities of control theory just a decade ago. Critical infrastructures such as electricity, water, traffic and intermodal transport networks are now in the scope of control engineers. The sheer size of such large-scale systems requires the adoption of advanced distributed control approaches. Distributed model predictive control (MPC) is one of the promising control methodologies for control of such systems.   This book provides a state-of-the-art overview of distributed MPC approaches, while at the same time making clear directions of research that deserve more attention. The core and rationale of 35 approaches are carefully explained. Moreover, detailed step-by-step algorithmic descriptions of each approach are provided. These features make the book a comprehensive guide both for those seeking an introduction to distributed MPC as well as for those ...

  1. Axial turbomachine modelling with a quasi-2-D approach. Application to gas cooled reactor transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolas Tauveron; Manuel Saez; Pascal Ferrand; Francis Leboeuf

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: In the frame of the international forum GenIV, CEA has selected two innovative concepts of High Temperature gas cooled Reactor. The first has a fast neutron spectrum, a robust refractory fuel and a direct cycle conversion. The second is a very high temperature reactor with a thermal neutron spectrum. Both concepts make use of technology derived from High Temperature Gas Reactor. Thermal hydraulic performances are a key issue for the design. For transient conditions and decay heat removal situations, the thermal hydraulic performance must remain as high as possible. In this context, all the transient situations, the incidental and accidental scenarios must be evaluated by a validated system code able to correctly describe, in particular, the thermal-hydraulics of the whole plant. With this type of reactor a special emphasis must be laid on turbomachinery modelling. A first step was to compute a HTGR concept using the steady-state characteristics of each element of the turbomachinery with the computer code CATHARE. In a hypothetical transient event (a 10 inches cold duct break of primary loop which causes a rapid depressurization and a decrease of the core mass flow rate) the results seem of great interest (as a forced convection was maintained by the compressors during the entire transient) but not sufficiently justified in the frame of 0D modelling of turbomachinery. A more precise description of the turbomachinery has been developed based on a quasi-two dimensional approach. Although this type of flow analysis is a simplification of a complex three dimensional system, it is able to describe the behaviour of a compressor or a turbine with a better understanding than the models based on component characteristics. This approach consists in the solving of 2D radially averaged Navier-Stokes equations with the hypothesis of circumferentially uniform flow. The assumption of quasi-steady behaviour is made: source terms for the lift and

  2. Which method predicts recidivism best?: A comparison of statistical, machine learning, and data mining predictive models

    OpenAIRE

    Tollenaar, N.; van der Heijden, P.G.M.

    2012-01-01

    Using criminal population conviction histories of recent offenders, prediction mod els are developed that predict three types of criminal recidivism: general recidivism, violent recidivism and sexual recidivism. The research question is whether prediction techniques from modern statistics, data mining and machine learning provide an improvement in predictive performance over classical statistical methods, namely logistic regression and linear discrim inant analysis. These models are compared ...

  3. A “poor man's approach” to topology optimization of cooling channels based on a Darcy flow model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Xi; Zhou, Mingdong; Sigmund, Ole

    2018-01-01

    . The obtained fluid velocity is subsequently used in a stabilized convection–diffusion heat transfer model to calculate the temperature distribution. The governing equations are cast in a monolithic form such that both the solid and fluid can be modeled using a single equation set. The material properties....... Several numerical examples demonstrate the applicability of this approach. Verification studies with a full turbulence model show that, although the equivalent model has limitations in yielding a perfect realistic velocity field, it generally provides well-performing cooling channel designs....

  4. Explicit prediction of ice clouds in general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Martin

    1999-11-01

    Although clouds play extremely important roles in the radiation budget and hydrological cycle of the Earth, there are large quantitative uncertainties in our understanding of their generation, maintenance and decay mechanisms, representing major obstacles in the development of reliable prognostic cloud water schemes for General Circulation Models (GCMs). Recognizing their relative neglect in the past, both observationally and theoretically, this work places special focus on ice clouds. A recent version of the UCLA - University of Utah Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) that includes interactive radiation is used to perform idealized experiments to study ice cloud maintenance and decay mechanisms under various conditions in term of: (1) background static stability, (2) background relative humidity, (3) rate of cloud ice addition over a fixed initial time-period and (4) radiation: daytime, nighttime and no-radiation. Radiation is found to have major effects on the life-time of layer-clouds. Optically thick ice clouds decay significantly slower than expected from pure microphysical crystal fall-out (taucld = 0.9--1.4 h as opposed to no-motion taumicro = 0.5--0.7 h). This is explained by the upward turbulent fluxes of water induced by IR destabilization, which partially balance the downward transport of water by snowfall. Solar radiation further slows the ice-water decay by destruction of the inversion above cloud-top and the resulting upward transport of water. Optically thin ice clouds, on the other hand, may exhibit even longer life-times (>1 day) in the presence of radiational cooling. The resulting saturation mixing ratio reduction provides for a constant cloud ice source. These CRM results are used to develop a prognostic cloud water scheme for the UCLA-GCM. The framework is based on the bulk water phase model of Ose (1993). The model predicts cloud liquid water and cloud ice separately, and which is extended to split the ice phase into suspended cloud ice (predicted

  5. A numerical model of the effects of reactor cooling water on fjord circulation. Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, W.

    1976-01-01

    In the search for possible sites for new nuclear power plants in Sweden a site on Braaviken, a narrow fjord, is being considered. A numerical hydrodynamic model has been developed to predict the probable effects of the waste heat disharged into the estuary on the natural estuarine flow. The model employs the basic equations of motion and conservation of salt and heat with appropriate approximations to make predictions. The primary approximation in the model consists of considering the estuary as a channel in which cross channel effects do not explicitly appear. The along channel motion is thus primary determined by the along channel density gradients. With the construction of a bottom intake located at the depth of about 40 meters there will be little noticable effect on the circulation, temperature or salinity fields in the estuary in the summer. However in the winter the bottom intake offers only a partial improvement over a surface intake. During the winter the heated water would cause changes of as much as 50 % in the natural state. The surface intake would cause changes which sometimes are almost twice as big. The problem arises because the 10 deg C heated water creates sizable horizontal density gradients which are sufficient to counteract the weak natural flow

  6. Fuzzy predictive filtering in nonlinear economic model predictive control for demand response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.

    2016-01-01

    The performance of a model predictive controller (MPC) is highly correlated with the model's accuracy. This paper introduces an economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme based on a nonlinear model, which uses a branch-and-bound tree search for solving the inherent non-convex optimization...

  7. CPV cells cooling system based on submerged jet impingement: CFD modeling and experimental validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montorfano, Davide; Gaetano, Antonio; Barbato, Maurizio C.; Ambrosetti, Gianluca; Pedretti, Andrea

    2014-09-01

    Concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) cells offer higher efficiencies with regard to the PV ones and allow to strongly reduce the overall solar cell area. However, to operate correctly and exploit their advantages, their temperature has to be kept low and as uniform as possible and the cooling circuit pressure drops need to be limited. In this work an impingement water jet cooling system specifically designed for an industrial HCPV receiver is studied. Through the literature and by means of accurate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, the nozzle to plate distance, the number of jets and the nozzle pitch, i.e. the distance between adjacent jets, were optimized. Afterwards, extensive experimental tests were performed to validate pressure drops and cooling power simulation results.

  8. Particle image velocimetry measurements in a representative gas-cooled prismatic reactor core model for the estimation of bypass flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conder, Thomas E.

    Core bypass flow is considered one of the largest contributors to uncertainty in fuel temperature within the Modular High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (MHTGR). It refers to the coolant that navigates through the interstitial regions between the graphite fuel blocks instead of traveling through the designated coolant channels. These flows are of concern because they reduce the desired flow rates in the coolant channels, and thereby have significant influence on the maximum fuel element and coolant exit temperatures. Thus, accurate prediction of the bypass flow is important because it directly impacts core temperature, influencing the life and efficiency of the reactor. An experiment was conducted at Idaho National Laboratory to quantify the flow in the coolant channels in relation to the interstitial gaps between fuel blocks in a representative MHTGR core. Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) was used to measure the flow fields within a simplified model, which comprised of a stacked junction of six partial fuel blocks with nine coolant tubes, separated by a 6mm gap width. The model had three sections: The upper plenum, upper block, and lower block. Model components were fabricated from clear, fused quartz where optical access was needed for the PIV measurements. Measurements were taken in three streamwise locations: in the upper plenum and in the midsection of the large and small fuel blocks. A laser light sheet was oriented parallel to the flow, while velocity fields were measured at millimeter intervals across the width of the model, totaling 3,276 PIV measurement locations. Inlet conditions were varied to incorporate laminar, transition, and turbulent flows in the coolant channels---all which produced laminar flow in the gap and non-uniform, turbulent flow in the upper plenum. The images were analyzed to create vector maps, and the data was exported for processing and compilation. The bypass flow was estimated by calculating the flow rates through the coolant

  9. Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Fu

    Full Text Available Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2 product, we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model, 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model, 73% (the Number of Growing Days model and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

  10. Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yang; Zhang, Haicheng; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping

    2014-01-01

    Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS) a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2) product), we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model), 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model), 73% (the Number of Growing Days model) and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model) of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD) showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

  11. Model-based Approach for Long-term Creep Curves of Alloy 617 for a High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Yin, Song Nan; Kim, Yong Wan

    2008-01-01

    Alloy 617 is a principal candidate alloy for the high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) components, because of its high creep rupture strength coupled with its good corrosion behavior in simulated HTGR-helium and its sufficient workability. To describe a creep strain-time curve well, various constitutive equations have been proposed by Kachanov-Rabotnov, Andrade, Garofalo, Evans and Maruyama, et al.. Among them, the K-R model has been used frequently, because a secondary creep resulting from a balance between a softening and a hardening of materials and a tertiary creep resulting from an appearance and acceleration of the internal or external damage processes are adequately considered. In the case of nickel-base alloys, it has been reported that a tertiary creep at a low strain range may be generated, and this tertiary stage may govern the total creep deformation. Therefore, a creep curve for nickel-based Alloy 617 will be predicted appropriately by using the K-R model that can reflect a tertiary creep. In this paper, the long-term creep curves for Alloy 617 were predicted by using the nonlinear least square fitting (NLSF) method in the K-R model. The modified K-R model was introduced to fit the full creep curves well. The values for the λ and K parameters in the modified K-R model were obtained with stresses

  12. Mathematical Model-Based Temperature Preparation of Liquid-Propellant Components Cooled by Liquid Nitrogen in the Heat Exchanger with a Coolant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. K. Pavlov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Before fuelling the tanks of missiles, boosters, and spacecraft with liquid-propellant components (LPC their temperature preparation is needed. The missile-system ground equipment performs this operation during prelaunch processing of space-purpose missiles (SPM. Usually, the fuel cooling is necessary to increase its density and provide heat compensation during prelaunch operation of SPM. The fuel temperature control systems (FTCS using different principles of operation and types of coolants are applied for fuel cooling.To determine parameters of LPC cooling process through the fuel heat exchange in the heat exchanger with coolant, which is cooled by liquid nitrogen upon contact heat exchange in the coolant reservoir, a mathematical model of this process and a design technique are necessary. Both allow us to determine design parameters of the cooling system and the required liquid nitrogen reserve to cool LPC to the appropriate temperature.The article presents an overview of foreign and domestic publications on cooling processes research and implementation using cryogenic products such as liquid nitrogen. The article draws a conclusion that it is necessary to determine the parameters of LPC cooling process through the fuel heat exchange in the heat exchanger with coolant, which is liquid nitrogen-cooled upon contact heat exchange in the coolant reservoir allowing to define rational propellant cooling conditions to the specified temperature.The mathematical model describes the set task on the assumption that a heat exchange between the LPC and the coolant in the heat exchanger and with the environment through the walls of tanks and pipelines of circulation loops is quasi-stationary.The obtained curves allow us to calculate temperature changes of LPC and coolant, cooling time and liquid nitrogen consumption, depending on the process parameters such as a flow rate of liquid nitrogen, initial coolant temperature, pump characteristics, thermal

  13. Model for predicting mountain wave field uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damiens, Florentin; Lott, François; Millet, Christophe; Plougonven, Riwal

    2017-04-01

    Studying the propagation of acoustic waves throughout troposphere requires knowledge of wind speed and temperature gradients from the ground up to about 10-20 km. Typical planetary boundary layers flows are known to present vertical low level shears that can interact with mountain waves, thereby triggering small-scale disturbances. Resolving these fluctuations for long-range propagation problems is, however, not feasible because of computer memory/time restrictions and thus, they need to be parameterized. When the disturbances are small enough, these fluctuations can be described by linear equations. Previous works by co-authors have shown that the critical layer dynamics that occur near the ground produces large horizontal flows and buoyancy disturbances that result in intense downslope winds and gravity wave breaking. While these phenomena manifest almost systematically for high Richardson numbers and when the boundary layer depth is relatively small compare to the mountain height, the process by which static stability affects downslope winds remains unclear. In the present work, new linear mountain gravity wave solutions are tested against numerical predictions obtained with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. For Richardson numbers typically larger than unity, the mesoscale model is used to quantify the effect of neglected nonlinear terms on downslope winds and mountain wave patterns. At these regimes, the large downslope winds transport warm air, a so called "Foehn" effect than can impact sound propagation properties. The sensitivity of small-scale disturbances to Richardson number is quantified using two-dimensional spectral analysis. It is shown through a pilot study of subgrid scale fluctuations of boundary layer flows over realistic mountains that the cross-spectrum of mountain wave field is made up of the same components found in WRF simulations. The impact of each individual component on acoustic wave propagation is discussed in terms of

  14. Performance evaluations of steam power plants with dry cooling towers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortunato, B.; Magi, V.

    1984-01-01

    A theoretical model is presented to design dry cooling tower systems and to evaluate their off-design performances. The influence of the more important design parameters on the tower dimensions is shown. A preliminary ''optimum'' size is predicted by means of a computer code using a simplified cost model. Moreover the influence of the designed cooling system on the performance of thermoelectric and/or nuclear power plants is analysed

  15. Physical modeling of stabilization water processes of reverse cooling system the thermal power plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasov, S. M.; Chichirov, A. A.; Chichirova, N. D.; Filimonova, A. A.; Vinogradov, A. S.

    2017-11-01

    The system of reverse cooling is an integral part of combined heat and power plant and, respectively, demands constant control and regulation of structure and the number of deposits from circulating water for maintenance of the steady mode of equipment. Insufficient circulating water processing turns into a big internal problem for combined heat and power plant work and is a source of heat exchange, surfaces pollution sludge formation in device channels, equipment corrosion, biological fouling, biosludge formation, etc. Depending on the reverse cooling functioning at combined heat and power plant various problems demanding accurately differentiated approach to the decision are identified. Various criteria allowing to define existence and intensity of deposits and ways of fight against the formed deposits and equipment corrosion are offered. For each type of reverse cooling system the possible reasons of deposits formation on the heatpower equipment are analyzed and physical and chemical methods for circulating water stabilization are described. These methods safe water treatment installation modes in a case of the interfaced reverse cooling system and provide the minimum quantity of drains in a case with not interfaced system.

  16. Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Beek, van L.P.H.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved

  17. Implementation of creep-fatigue model into finite-element code to assess cooled turbine blade.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dedekind, MO

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Turbine blades which are designed with airfoil cooling are subject to thermo-mechanical fatigue as well as creep damage. These problems arise due to thermal cycling and high operating temperatures in service. An implementation of fatigue and creep...

  18. CFD modelling of cooling channel geometry of PEM fuel cell for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, a numerical investigation was carried out to deter mine the impact of cooling channel geometry in combination with temperature dependent operating parameters on thermal management and overall performance of a PEM fuel cell system. The evaluation is performed using a computational fluid dynamics ...

  19. Model Predictive Control for an Industrial SAG Mill

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ohan, Valeriu; Steinke, Florian; Metzger, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We discuss Model Predictive Control (MPC) based on ARX models and a simple lower order disturbance model. The advantage of this MPC formulation is that it has few tuning parameters and is based on an ARX prediction model that can readily be identied using standard technologies from system identic...

  20. Uncertainties in spatially aggregated predictions from a logistic regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horssen, P.W. van; Pebesma, E.J.; Schot, P.P.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a method to assess the uncertainty of an ecological spatial prediction model which is based on logistic regression models, using data from the interpolation of explanatory predictor variables. The spatial predictions are presented as approximate 95% prediction intervals. The

  1. Dealing with missing predictor values when applying clinical prediction models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, K.J.; Vergouwe, Y.; Donders, A.R.T.; Harrell Jr, F.E.; Chen, Q.; Grobbee, D.E.; Moons, K.G.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prediction models combine patient characteristics and test results to predict the presence of a disease or the occurrence of an event in the future. In the event that test results (predictor) are unavailable, a strategy is needed to help users applying a prediction model to deal with

  2. Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuhui Lee; Michael L. Goulden; David Y. Hollinger; Alan Barr; T. Andrew Black; Gil Bohrer; Rosvel Bracho; Bert Drake; Allen Goldstein; Lianhong Gu; Gabriel Katul; Thomas Kolb; Beverly E. Law; Hank Margolis; Tilden Meyers; Russell Monson; William Munger; Ram Oren; Kyaw Tha Paw U; Andrew D. Richardson; Hans Peter Schmid; Ralf Staebler; Steven Wofsy; Lei. Zhao

    2011-01-01

    Deforestation in mid- to high latitudes is hypothesized to have the potential to cool the Earth's surface by altering biophysical processes. In climate models of continental-scale land clearing, the cooling is triggered by increases in surface albedo and is reinforced by a land albedo–sea ice feedback. This feedback is crucial in the model predictions; without it...

  3. Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

  4. Foundation Settlement Prediction Based on a Novel NGM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng-Yu Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of foundation or subgrade settlement is very important during engineering construction. According to the fact that there are lots of settlement-time sequences with a nonhomogeneous index trend, a novel grey forecasting model called NGM (1,1,k,c model is proposed in this paper. With an optimized whitenization differential equation, the proposed NGM (1,1,k,c model has the property of white exponential law coincidence and can predict a pure nonhomogeneous index sequence precisely. We used two case studies to verify the predictive effect of NGM (1,1,k,c model for settlement prediction. The results show that this model can achieve excellent prediction accuracy; thus, the model is quite suitable for simulation and prediction of approximate nonhomogeneous index sequence and has excellent application value in settlement prediction.

  5. Predictive capabilities of various constitutive models for arterial tissue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Florian; Polzer, Stanislav; Slažanský, Martin; Man, Vojtěch; Skácel, Pavel

    2018-02-01

    Aim of this study is to validate some constitutive models by assessing their capabilities in describing and predicting uniaxial and biaxial behavior of porcine aortic tissue. 14 samples from porcine aortas were used to perform 2 uniaxial and 5 biaxial tensile tests. Transversal strains were furthermore stored for uniaxial data. The experimental data were fitted by four constitutive models: Holzapfel-Gasser-Ogden model (HGO), model based on generalized structure tensor (GST), Four-Fiber-Family model (FFF) and Microfiber model. Fitting was performed to uniaxial and biaxial data sets separately and descriptive capabilities of the models were compared. Their predictive capabilities were assessed in two ways. Firstly each model was fitted to biaxial data and its accuracy (in term of R 2 and NRMSE) in prediction of both uniaxial responses was evaluated. Then this procedure was performed conversely: each model was fitted to both uniaxial tests and its accuracy in prediction of 5 biaxial responses was observed. Descriptive capabilities of all models were excellent. In predicting uniaxial response from biaxial data, microfiber model was the most accurate while the other models showed also reasonable accuracy. Microfiber and FFF models were capable to reasonably predict biaxial responses from uniaxial data while HGO and GST models failed completely in this task. HGO and GST models are not capable to predict biaxial arterial wall behavior while FFF model is the most robust of the investigated constitutive models. Knowledge of transversal strains in uniaxial tests improves robustness of constitutive models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Comparing National Water Model Inundation Predictions with Hydrodynamic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egbert, R. J.; Shastry, A.; Aristizabal, F.; Luo, C.

    2017-12-01

    The National Water Model (NWM) simulates the hydrologic cycle and produces streamflow forecasts, runoff, and other variables for 2.7 million reaches along the National Hydrography Dataset for the continental United States. NWM applies Muskingum-Cunge channel routing which is based on the continuity equation. However, the momentum equation also needs to be considered to obtain better estimates of streamflow and stage in rivers especially for applications such as flood inundation mapping. Simulation Program for River NeTworks (SPRNT) is a fully dynamic model for large scale river networks that solves the full nonlinear Saint-Venant equations for 1D flow and stage height in river channel networks with non-uniform bathymetry. For the current work, the steady-state version of the SPRNT model was leveraged. An evaluation on SPRNT's and NWM's abilities to predict inundation was conducted for the record flood of Hurricane Matthew in October 2016 along the Neuse River in North Carolina. This event was known to have been influenced by backwater effects from the Hurricane's storm surge. Retrospective NWM discharge predictions were converted to stage using synthetic rating curves. The stages from both models were utilized to produce flood inundation maps using the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) method which uses the local relative heights to provide a spatial representation of inundation depths. In order to validate the inundation produced by the models, Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar data in the VV and VH polarizations along with auxiliary data was used to produce a reference inundation map. A preliminary, binary comparison of the inundation maps to the reference, limited to the five HUC-12 areas of Goldsboro, NC, yielded that the flood inundation accuracies for NWM and SPRNT were 74.68% and 78.37%, respectively. The differences for all the relevant test statistics including accuracy, true positive rate, true negative rate, and positive predictive value were found

  7. Spray cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rollin, Philippe.

    1975-01-01

    Spray cooling - using water spraying in air - is surveyed as a possible system for make-up (peak clipping in open circuit) or major cooling (in closed circuit) of the cooling water of the condensers in thermal power plants. Indications are given on the experiments made in France and the systems recently developed in USA, questions relating to performance, cost and environmental effects of spray devices are then dealt with [fr

  8. Predictive models for moving contact line flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rame, Enrique; Garoff, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    Modeling flows with moving contact lines poses the formidable challenge that the usual assumptions of Newtonian fluid and no-slip condition give rise to a well-known singularity. This singularity prevents one from satisfying the contact angle condition to compute the shape of the fluid-fluid interface, a crucial calculation without which design parameters such as the pressure drop needed to move an immiscible 2-fluid system through a solid matrix cannot be evaluated. Some progress has been made for low Capillary number spreading flows. Combining experimental measurements of fluid-fluid interfaces very near the moving contact line with an analytical expression for the interface shape, we can determine a parameter that forms a boundary condition for the macroscopic interface shape when Ca much les than l. This parameter, which plays the role of an "apparent" or macroscopic dynamic contact angle, is shown by the theory to depend on the system geometry through the macroscopic length scale. This theoretically established dependence on geometry allows this parameter to be "transferable" from the geometry of the measurement to any other geometry involving the same material system. Unfortunately this prediction of the theory cannot be tested on Earth.

  9. Developmental prediction model for early alcohol initiation in Dutch adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geels, L.M.; Vink, J.M.; Beijsterveldt, C.E.M. van; Bartels, M.; Boomsma, D.I.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Multiple factors predict early alcohol initiation in teenagers. Among these are genetic risk factors, childhood behavioral problems, life events, lifestyle, and family environment. We constructed a developmental prediction model for alcohol initiation below the Dutch legal drinking age

  10. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

    2017-11-01

    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  11. MODELLING OF DYNAMIC SPEED LIMITS USING THE MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Borisovich Nikolaev

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the issues of traffic management using intelligent system “Car-Road” (IVHS, which consist of interacting intelligent vehicles (IV and intelligent roadside controllers. Vehicles are organized in convoy with small distances between them. All vehicles are assumed to be fully automated (throttle control, braking, steering. Proposed approaches for determining speed limits for traffic cars on the motorway using a model predictive control (MPC. The article proposes an approach to dynamic speed limit to minimize the downtime of vehicles in traffic.

  12. Modelling and optimal operation of a small-scale integrated energy based district heating and cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jing, Z.X.; Jiang, X.S.; Wu, Q.H.; Tang, W.H.; Hua, B.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive model of a small-scale integrated energy based district heating and cooling (DHC) system located in a residential area of hot-summer and cold-winter zone, which makes joint use of wind energy, solar energy, natural gas and electric energy. The model includes an off-grid wind turbine generator, heat producers, chillers, a water supply network and terminal loads. This research also investigates an optimal operating strategy based on Group Search Optimizer (GSO), through which the daily running cost of the system is optimized in both the heating and cooling modes. The strategy can be used to find the optimal number of operating chillers, optimal outlet water temperature set points of boilers and optimal water flow set points of pumps, taking into account cost functions and various operating constraints. In order to verify the model and the optimal operating strategy, performance tests have been undertaken using MATLAB. The simulation results prove the validity of the model and show that the strategy is able to minimize the system operation cost. The proposed system is evaluated in comparison with a conventional separation production (SP) system. The feasibility of investment for the DHC system is also discussed. The comparative results demonstrate the investment feasibility, the significant energy saving and the cost reduction, achieved in daily operation in an environment, where there are varying heating loads, cooling loads, wind speeds, solar radiations and electricity prices. - Highlights: • A model of a small-scale integrated energy based DHC system is presented. • An off-grid wind generator used for water heating is embedded in the model. • An optimal control strategy is studied to optimize the running cost of the system. • The designed system is proved to be energy efficient and cost effective in operation

  13. Multipolar radiofrequency ablation with internally cooled electrodes: experimental study in ex vivo bovine liver with mathematic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clasen, Stephan; Schmidt, Diethard; Boss, Andreas; Dietz, Klaus; Kröber, Stefan M; Claussen, Claus D; Pereira, Philippe L

    2006-03-01

    To evaluate the size and geometry of thermally induced coagulation by using multipolar radiofrequency (RF) ablation and to determine a mathematic model to predict coagulation volume. Multipolar RF ablations (n = 80) were performed in ex vivo bovine livers by using three internally cooled bipolar applicators with two electrodes on the same shaft. Applicators were placed in a triangular array (spacing, 2-5 cm) and were activated in multipolar mode (power output, 75-225 W). The size and geometry of the coagulation zone, together with ablation time, were assessed. Mathematic functions were fitted, and the goodness of fit was assessed by using r(2). Coagulation volume, short-axis diameter, and ablation time were dependent on power output and applicator distance. The maximum zone of coagulation (volume, 324 cm(3); short-axis diameter, 8.4 cm; ablation time, 193 min) was induced with a power output of 75 W at an applicator distance of 5 cm. Coagulation volume and ablation time decreased as power output increased. Power outputs of 100-125 W at applicator distances of 2-4 cm led to a reasonable compromise between coagulation volume and ablation time. At 2 cm (100 W), coagulation volume, short-axis diameter, and ablation time were 66 cm(3), 4.5 cm, and 19 min, respectively; at 3 cm (100 W), 90 cm(3), 5.2 cm, and 22 min, respectively; at 4 cm (100 W), 132 cm(3), 6.1 cm, and 27 min, respectively; at 2 cm (125 W), 56 cm(3), 4.2 cm, and 9 min, respectively; at 3 cm (125 W), 73 cm(3), 4.9 cm, and 12 min, respectively; and at 4 cm (125 W), 103 cm(3), 5.5 cm, and 16 min, respectively. At applicator distances of 4 cm (>125 W) and 5 cm (>100 W), the zones of coagulation were not confluent. Coagulation volume (r(2) = 0.80) and RF ablation time (r(2) = 0.93) were determined by using the mathematic model. Multipolar RF ablation with three bipolar applicators may produce large volumes of confluent coagulation ex vivo. A compromise is necessary between prolonged RF ablations at lower

  14. Conjugate calculation of a film-cooled blade for improvement of the leading edge cooling configuration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norbert Moritz

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Great efforts are still put into the design process of advanced film-cooling configurations. In particular, the vanes and blades of turbine front stages have to be cooled extensively for a safe operation. The conjugate calculation technique is used for the three-dimensional thermal load prediction of a film-cooled test blade of a modern gas turbine. Thus, it becomes possible to take into account the interaction of internal flows, external flow, and heat transfer without the prescription of heat transfer coefficients. The focus of the investigation is laid on the leading edge part of the blade. The numerical model consists of all internal flow passages and cooling hole rows at the leading edge. Furthermore, the radial gap flow is also part of the model. The comparison with thermal pyrometer measurements shows that with respect to regions with high thermal load a qualitatively and quantitatively good agreement of the conjugate results and the measurements can be found. In particular, the region in the vicinity of the mid-span section is exposed to a higher thermal load, which requires further improvement of the cooling arrangement. Altogether the achieved results demonstrate that the conjugate calculation technique is applicable for reasonable prediction of three-dimensional thermal load of complex cooling configurations for blades.

  15. Modeling of the filling and cooling processes of hot fuel mains in Liquid Fuel Rocket Power Plant (LFRPP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prisnyakov, V. F.; Pokrishkin, V. V.; Serebryansky, V. N.

    A mathematical model of heat and mass exchange processes during filling and cooling of hot fuel mains of the Liquid Fuel Rocket Power Plant (LFRPP), which allows to define a mass consumption and distribution of two-phase flow parameters by the length of pipeline. Results of calculations are compared with experimental data, taken during filling of the main with a supply of liquid oxygen from the tank into the combustion chamber. Also, the results of modeling of hydrogen main dynamic characteristics of LFRPP in the same conditions are given.

  16. Predictability in models of the atmospheric circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houtekamer, P.L.

    1992-01-01

    It will be clear from the above discussions that skill forecasts are still in their infancy. Operational skill predictions do not exist. One is still struggling to prove that skill predictions, at any range, have any quality at all. It is not clear what the statistics of the analysis error

  17. Type II Supernova Energetics and Comparison of Light Curves to Shock-Cooling Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Adam; Gal-Yam, Avishay; Cia, Annalisa De; Horesh, Assaf; Khazov, Danny; Ofek, Eran O.; Kulkarni, S. R.; Arcavi, Iair; Manulis, Ilan; Cenko, S. Bradley

    2016-01-01

    During the first few days after explosion, Type II supernovae (SNe) are dominated by relatively simple physics. Theoretical predictions regarding early-time SN light curves in the ultraviolet (UV) and optical bands are thus quite robust. We present, for the first time, a sample of 57 R-band SN II light curves that are well-monitored during their rise, with greater than 5 detections during the first 10 days after discovery, and a well-constrained time of explosion to within 13 days. We show that the energy per unit mass (E/M) can be deduced to roughly a factor of five by comparing early-time optical data to the 2011 model of Rabinak Waxman, while the progenitor radius cannot be determined based on R-band data alone. We find that SN II explosion energies span a range of EM = (0.2-20) x 10(exp 51) erg/(10 M stellar mass), and have a mean energy per unit mass of E/ M = 0.85 x 10(exp 51) erg(10 stellar mass), corrected for Malmquist bias. Assuming a small spread in progenitor masses, this indicates a large intrinsic diversity in explosion energy. Moreover, E/M is positively correlated with the amount of Ni-56 produced in the explosion, as predicted by some recent models of core-collapse SNe. We further present several empirical correlations. The peak magnitude is correlated with the decline rate (Delta m(sub15), the decline rate is weakly correlated with the rise time, and the rise time is not significantly correlated with the peak magnitude. Faster declining SNe are more luminous and have longer rise times. This limits the possible power sources for such events.

  18. Development of Numerical Model for Water Cooling Boiling Heat Transfer on a Moving Hot Steel Plate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Il Seouk [Kyungpook National University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-05-15

    Most of the scientific results for boiling heat transfer have been reached through experimentation. This paper focuses on the boiling heat transfer on the moving hot plate with a fully numerical approach. The simulation was conducted only in a very high temperature region (over the Leidenfrost temperature) where the film boiling can be kept steadily on the plate. Actually this phenomenon could be occurred in steel making process, especially the strip cooling process in hot rolling plant. However, the theoretical or numerical setup for boiling heat transfer is acutely required in the nuclear engineering part too. Thus in this paper, the results developing the fully numerical approach for boiling heat transfer during the study of steel plate cooling will be presented

  19. Numerical Modeling of Surface and Volumetric Cooling using Optimal T- and Y-shaped Flow Channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosaraju, Srinivas

    2017-11-01

    The layout of T- and V-shaped flow channel networks on a surface can be optimized for minimum pressure drop and pumping power. The results of the optimization are in the form of geometric parameters such as length and diameter ratios of the stem and branch sections. While these flow channels are optimized for minimum pressure drop, they can also be used for surface and volumetric cooling applications such as heat exchangers, air conditioning and electronics cooling. In this paper, an effort has been made to study the heat transfer characteristics of multiple T- and Y-shaped flow channel configurations using numerical simulations. All configurations are subjected to same input parameters and heat generation constraints. Comparisons are made with similar results published in literature.

  20. First step of the project for implementation of two non-symmetric cooling loops modeled by the ALMOD3 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dominguez, L.; Camargo, C.T.M.

    1984-09-01

    The first step of the project for implementation of two non-symmetric cooling loops modeled by the ALMOD3 computer code is presented. This step consists of the introduction of a simplified model for simulating the steam generator. This model is the GEVAP computer code, integrant part of LOOP code, which simulates the primary coolant circuit of PWR nuclear power plants during transients. The ALMOD3 computer code has a model for the steam generator, called UTSG, which is very detailed. This model has spatial dependence, correlations for 2-phase flow, distinguished correlations for different heat transfer process. The GEVAP model has thermal equilibrium between phases (gaseous and liquid homogeneous mixture), no spatial dependence and uses only one generalized correlation to treat several heat transfer processes. (Author) [pt

  1. Required Collaborative Work in Online Courses: A Predictive Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Marlene A.; Kellogg, Deborah L.

    2015-01-01

    This article describes a predictive model that assesses whether a student will have greater perceived learning in group assignments or in individual work. The model produces correct classifications 87.5% of the time. The research is notable in that it is the first in the education literature to adopt a predictive modeling methodology using data…

  2. Models for predicting compressive strength and water absorption of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work presents a mathematical model for predicting the compressive strength and water absorption of laterite-quarry dust cement block using augmented Scheffe's simplex lattice design. The statistical models developed can predict the mix proportion that will yield the desired property. The models were tested for lack of ...

  3. Gray-Box Approach for Thermal Modelling of Buildings for Applications in District Heating and Cooling Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saurav, Kumar; Chandan, Vikas

    2017-05-19

    District-heating-and-cooling (DHC) systems are a proven energy solution that has been deployed for many years in a growing number of urban areas worldwide. They comprise a variety of technologies that seek to develop synergies between the production and supply of heat, cooling, domestic hot water and electricity. Although the benefits of DHC systems are significant and have been widely acclaimed, yet the full potential of modern DHC systems remains largely untapped. There are several opportunities for development of energy efficient DHC systems, which will enable the effective exploitation of alternative renewable resources, waste heat recovery, etc., in order to increase the overall efficiency and facilitate the transition towards the next generation of DHC systems. This motivated the need for modelling these complex systems. Large-scale modelling of DHC-networks is challenging, as it has several components such as buildings, pipes, valves, heating source, etc., interacting with each other. In this paper, we focus on building modelling. In particular, we present a gray-box methodology for thermal modelling of buildings. Gray-box modelling is a hybrid of data driven and physics based models where, coefficients of the equations from physics based models are learned using data. This approach allows us to capture the dynamics of the buildings more effectively as compared to pure data driven approach. Additionally, this approach results in a simpler models as compared to pure physics based models. We first develop the individual components of the building such as temperature evolution, flow controller, etc. These individual models are then integrated in to the complete gray-box model for the building. The model is validated using data collected from one of the buildings at Lule{\\aa}, a city on the coast of northern Sweden.

  4. Novel device for tissue cooling during endoscopic laryngeal laser surgery: thermal damage study in an ex vivo calf model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Hae Jin; Burns, James A; Kobler, James B; Heaton, James T; Zeitels, Steven M

    2012-07-01

    Minimizing collateral thermal damage during endoscopic laryngeal laser surgery remains a priority, and tissue cooling is one way to achieve this goal. Cooling systems utilizing compressed air have been shown to reduce the extent of thermal trauma on the vocal folds, but these units are not ideal for endoscopic applications because cooling is inefficient at the low airflows needed. We examined whether a novel vortex cooling device that generates cooled air at low flow rates would provide a cooling benefit beyond that which could be obtained by using room-temperature air for cooling tissue or by using no cooling during simulated laryngeal laser surgery. A continuous-wave thulium laser was used to incise glottic tissue in 12 calf vocal folds. Cooling was achieved with a prototype vortex cooler (9 degrees C air output; flow rate, 3 L/min), and tissue temperature measurements were compared to those with room-air cooling and no cooling. Thermal damage was analyzed histologically by measuring the depth of lactate dehydrogenase inactivation surrounding the mucosal incision. The cooling conditions were tested during time-constant cuts (8 seconds) and depth-constant cuts (into the thyroarytenoid muscle). During time-constant cuts, comparison between vortex cooling and room-air cooling revealed that vortex cooling resulted in a thermal damage zone that was 14% smaller (519 versus 603 microm; p cooling created a thermal damage zone that was 32% smaller than that created with no cooling (p cooling (p cooling reduces thermal damage more effectively than room-air cooling or no cooling during both time-constant and depth-constant thulium laser cuts.

  5. Lay-out of the He-cooled solid breeder model B in the European power plant conceptual study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hermsmeyer, S. E-mail: stephan.hermsmeyer@iket.fzk.de; Malang, S.; Fischer, U.; Gordeev, S

    2003-09-01

    The European helium cooled pebble bed (HCPB) blanket concept is the basis for one of two limited-extrapolation plant models that are being elaborated within the European power plant conceptual study (PPCS). In addition to addressing the case for fusion safety and environmental compatibility, following earlier studies like SEAFP or SEAL, this reactor study puts emphasis on plant availability and economic viability, which are closely related to specific plant models and require a detailed lay-out of the fusion power core and a consideration of the overall plant (balance of plant). Within the development of in-vessel components for the plant model, the major tasks to be carried out were: (i) adaptation of the HCPB concept--featuring separate pebble beds of ceramic breeder and Beryllium neutron multiplier and reduced-activation ferritic-martensitic steel EUROFER as structural material--to the large module segmentation chosen for reasons of plant availability in part II of the PPCS; (ii) proposal of a concept for a Helium cooled divertor compatible with a maximum of 10 MW/m{sup 2} heat flux to satisfy the requirements of reasonably extrapolated plasma physics; (iii) lay-out of the major plant model components and integration into the in-vessel dimensions found from system code calculations for a power plant of 1500 MW electrical output and iterated data on the plant model performance. The paper defines all major in-vessel components of plant model B, as it is called in the PPCS, namely (i) the unit of FW, blanket and high temperature shield that is to be replaced regularly; (ii) the low temperature shield that is laid out as a lifetime component of the reactor; (iii) the divertor; and (iv) the in-vessel manifolding. Results are presented for the thermal-hydraulic performance of the components and for the thermal-mechanical behaviour of the blanket and the divertor target plate. These results suggest, together with results from the wider exploration of the plant model

  6. Lay-out of the He-cooled solid breeder model B in the European power plant conceptual study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hermsmeyer, S.; Malang, S.; Fischer, U.; Gordeev, S.

    2003-01-01

    The European helium cooled pebble bed (HCPB) blanket concept is the basis for one of two limited-extrapolation plant models that are being elaborated within the European power plant conceptual study (PPCS). In addition to addressing the case for fusion safety and environmental compatibility, following earlier studies like SEAFP or SEAL, this reactor study puts emphasis on plant availability and economic viability, which are closely related to specific plant models and require a detailed lay-out of the fusion power core and a consideration of the overall plant (balance of plant). Within the development of in-vessel components for the plant model, the major tasks to be carried out were: (i) adaptation of the HCPB concept--featuring separate pebble beds of ceramic breeder and Beryllium neutron multiplier and reduced-activation ferritic-martensitic steel EUROFER as structural material--to the large module segmentation chosen for reasons of plant availability in part II of the PPCS; (ii) proposal of a concept for a Helium cooled divertor compatible with a maximum of 10 MW/m 2 heat flux to satisfy the requirements of reasonably extrapolated plasma physics; (iii) lay-out of the major plant model components and integration into the in-vessel dimensions found from system code calculations for a power plant of 1500 MW electrical output and iterated data on the plant model performance. The paper defines all major in-vessel components of plant model B, as it is called in the PPCS, namely (i) the unit of FW, blanket and high temperature shield that is to be replaced regularly; (ii) the low temperature shield that is laid out as a lifetime component of the reactor; (iii) the divertor; and (iv) the in-vessel manifolding. Results are presented for the thermal-hydraulic performance of the components and for the thermal-mechanical behaviour of the blanket and the divertor target plate. These results suggest, together with results from the wider exploration of the plant model within

  7. Numerical simulation of heat transfer process in solar enhanced natural draft dry cooling tower with radiation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Qiuhuan; Zhu, Jialing; Lu, Xinli

    2017-01-01

    Graphical abstract: A 3-D numerical model integrated with a discrete ordinate (DO) solar radiation model (considering solar radiation effect in the room of solar collector) was developed to investigate the influence of solar radiation intensity and ambient pressure on the efficiency and thermal characteristics of the SENDDCT. Our study shows that introducing such a radiation model can more accurately simulate the heat transfer process in the SENDDCT. Calculation results indicate that previous simulations overestimated solar energy obtained by the solar collector and underestimated the heat loss. The cooling performance is improved when the solar radiation intensity or ambient pressure is high. Air temperature and velocity increase with the increase of solar radiation intensity. But ambient pressure has inverse effects on the changes of air temperature and velocity. Under a condition that the solar load increases but the ambient pressure decreases, the increased rate of heat transferred in the heat exchanger is not obvious. Thus the performance of the SENDDCT not only depends on the solar radiation intensity but also depends on the ambient pressure. - Highlights: • A radiation model has been introduced to accurately simulate heat transfer process. • Heat transfer rate would be overestimated if the radiation model was not introduced. • The heat transfer rate is approximately proportional to solar radiation intensity. • The higher the solar radiation or ambient pressure, the better SENDDCT performance. - Abstract: Solar enhanced natural draft dry cooling tower (SENDDCT) is more efficient than natural draft dry cooling tower by utilizing solar radiation in arid region. A three-dimensional numerical model considering solar radiation effect was developed to investigate the influence of solar radiation intensity and ambient pressure on the efficiency and thermal characteristics of SENDDCT. The numerical simulation outcomes reveal that a model with consideration of

  8. Cooling tower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baer, E.; Dittrich, H.; Ernst, G.; Roller, W.

    1975-01-01

    The task on which the invention is based is to design a cooling tower in such a way that the negative influences of the wind, in particular strong side winds (wind velocities of over 10 m/s), on the functioning of the cooling tower are reduced or eliminated altogether. (orig./TK) [de

  9. A thermodynamics model for morphology prediction of aluminum nano crystals fabricated by the inert gas condensation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yu; Xia, Dehong

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to provide scientific guidance for the morphological control of nanoparticle synthesis using the gas phase method. A universal thermodynamics model is developed to predict the morphology of nanoparticles fabricated using the inert gas condensation method. By using this model, the morphologies of aluminum nanocrystals are predicted under various preparation conditions. There are two types of energy that jointly determine the formation of nanoparticle morphology—Gibbs free energy for nanoparticles and energy variation during the process. The results show that energy variation dominates morphology formation when the cooling rate is less than 2 × 1011 K s-1 in the aluminum nanocrystal production process. At the beginning of the nanoparticle growth, the most stable morphology is predicted to be spherical, but the energetically preferred morphology becomes cubic as the particle grows. The turning point in the particle size at which spherical morphology is no longer the most stable morphology is exhibited as a function of pressure in a condensation chamber for different cooling rates. In this paper, we focus on the need for morphology prediction based on preparation conditions. It is concluded that nanoparticles with various morphologies could be obtained by adjusting the cooling rate and pressure in the condensation chamber.

  10. A new simplified model to calculate surface temperature and heat transfer of radiant floor heating and cooling systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Xiaozhou; Zhao, Jianing; Olesen, Bjarne W.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a new simplified model to calculate surface temperature and heat transfer of radiant floor heating and cooling system was proposed and established using the conduction shape factor. Measured data from references were used to validate the proposed model. The results showed...... that the maximum differences between the calculated surface temperature and heat transfer using the proposed model and the measured data were 0.8 ºC and 8.1 W/m2 for radiant floor heating system when average water temperature between 40 ºC and 60 ºC. For the corresponding values were 0.3 ºC and 2.0 W/m2...... for radiant floor cooling systems when average water temperature between 10 ºC and 20 ºC. Numerically simulated data in this study were also used to validate the proposed model. The results showed that the surface temperature and heat transfer of radiant floor calculated by the proposed model agreed very well...

  11. Regression models for predicting anthropometric measurements of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    measure anthropometric dimensions to predict difficult-to-measure dimensions required for ergonomic design of school furniture. A total of 143 students aged between 16 and 18 years from eight public secondary schools in Ogbomoso, Nigeria ...

  12. FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    direction (σx) had a maximum value of 375MPa (tensile) and minimum value of ... These results shows that the residual stresses obtained by prediction from the finite element method are in fair agreement with the experimental results.

  13. Probabilistic Modeling and Visualization for Bankruptcy Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antunes, Francisco; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco Camara

    2017-01-01

    In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful......). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical...... visualization to improve our understanding of the different attained performances, effectively compiling all the conducted experiments in a meaningful way. We complete our study with an entropy-based analysis that highlights the uncertainty handling properties provided by the GP, crucial for prediction tasks...

  14. Modeling of the Radial Heat Flow and Cooling Processes in a Deep Ultraviolet Cu+ Ne-CuBr Laser

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliycho Petkov Iliev

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available An improved theoretical model of the gas temperature profile in the cross-section of an ultraviolet copper ion excited copper bromide laser is developed. The model is based on the solution of the one-dimensional heat conduction equation subject to special nonlinear boundary conditions, describing the heat interaction between the laser tube and its surroundings. It takes into account the nonuniform distribution of the volume power density along with the radius of the laser tube. The problem is reduced to the boundary value problem of the first kind. An explicit solution of this model is obtained. The model is applied for the evaluation of the gas temperature profiles of the laser in the conditions of free and forced air-cooling. Comparison with other simple models assumed constant volume power density is made. In particular, a simple expression for calculating the average gas temperature is found.

  15. Prediction for Major Adverse Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery: Comparison of Three Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Hung Hsieh

    2007-09-01

    Conclusion: The Parsonnet score performed as well as the logistic regression models in predicting major adverse outcomes. The Parsonnet score appears to be a very suitable model for clinicians to use in risk stratification of cardiac surgery.

  16. Turbine airfoil film cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hylton, L. D.; Nirmalan, V.; Sultanian, B. K.; Kaufman, R. M.

    1987-10-01

    The experimental data obtained in this program gives insight into the physical phenomena that occur on a film cooled airfoil, and should provide a relevant data base for verification of new design tools. Results indicate that the downstream film cooling process is a complex function of the thermal dilution and turbulence augmentation parameters with trends actually reversing as blowing strength and coolant-to-gas temperature ratio varied. The pressure surface of the airfoil is shown to exhibit a considerably higher degree of sensitivity to changes in the film cooling parameters and, consequently, should prove to be more of a challenge than the suction surface in accurately predicting heat transfer levels with downsteam film cooling.

  17. From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

    2015-01-01

    At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

  18. Comparisons of Faulting-Based Pavement Performance Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weina Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Faulting prediction is the core of concrete pavement maintenance and design. Highway agencies are always faced with the problem of lower accuracy for the prediction which causes costly maintenance. Although many researchers have developed some performance prediction models, the accuracy of prediction has remained a challenge. This paper reviews performance prediction models and JPCP faulting models that have been used in past research. Then three models including multivariate nonlinear regression (MNLR model, artificial neural network (ANN model, and Markov Chain (MC model are tested and compared using a set of actual pavement survey data taken on interstate highway with varying design features, traffic, and climate data. It is found that MNLR model needs further recalibration, while the ANN model needs more data for training the network. MC model seems a good tool for pavement performance prediction when the data is limited, but it is based on visual inspections and not explicitly related to quantitative physical parameters. This paper then suggests that the further direction for developing the performance prediction model is incorporating the advantages and disadvantages of different models to obtain better accuracy.

  19. User manual for GEOCITY: a computer model for cost analysis of geothermal district-heating-and-cooling systems. Volume II. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huber, H.D.; Fassbender, L.L.; Bloomster, C.H.

    1982-09-01

    The purpose of this model is to calculate the costs of residential space heating, space cooling, and sanitary water heating or process heating (cooling) using geothermal energy from a hydrothermal reservoir. The model can calculate geothermal heating and cooling costs for residential developments, a multi-district city, or a point demand such as an industrial factory or commercial building. Volume II contains all the appendices, including cost equations and models for the reservoir and fluid transmission system and the distribution system, descriptions of predefined residential district types for the distribution system, key equations for the cooling degree hour methodology, and a listing of the sample case output. Both volumes include the complete table of contents and lists of figures and tables. In addition, both volumes include the indices for the input parameters and subroutines defined in the user manual.

  20. Modelling of an air-cooled two-stage Rankine cycle for electricity production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Bo

    2014-01-01

    This work considers a two stage Rankine cycle architecture slightly different from a standard Rankine cycle for electricity generation. Instead of expanding the steam to extremely low pressure, the vapor leaves the turbine at a higher pressure then having a much smaller specific volume. It is thus possible to greatly reduce the size of the steam turbine. The remaining energy is recovered by a bottoming cycle using a working fluid which has a much higher density than the water steam. Thus, the turbines and heat exchangers are more compact; the turbine exhaust velocity loss is lower. This configuration enables to largely reduce the global size of the steam water turbine and facilitate the use of a dry cooling system. The main advantage of such an air cooled two stage Rankine cycle is the possibility to choose the installation site of a large or medium power plant without the need of a large and constantly available water source; in addition, as compared to water cooled cycles, the risk regarding future operations is reduced (climate conditions may affect water availability or temperature, and imply changes in the water supply regulatory rules). The concept has been investigated by EDF R and D. A 22 MW prototype was developed in the 1970's using ammonia as the working fluid of the bottoming cycle for its high density and high latent heat. However, this fluid is toxic. In order to search more suitable working fluids for the two stage Rankine cycle application and to identify the optimal cycle configuration, we have established a working fluid selection methodology. Some potential candidates have been identified. We have evaluated the performances of the two stage Rankine cycles operating with different working fluids in both design and off design conditions. For the most acceptable working fluids, components of the cycle have been sized. The power plant concept can then be evaluated on a life cycle cost basis. (author)

  1. Fluid elastic instability analysis of 1/6th experimental model of PFBR main vessel cooling circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jalaldeen, S.; Ravi, R.; Chellapandi, P.; Bhoje, S.B.

    1993-01-01

    In reactor assembly of Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), the main vessel (MV) temperature is kept below creep range i.e. less than 427 deg C by way of diverting a small fraction of core flow from the cold pool and sent through the passage between main vessel and an outer cylindrical baffle to cool the vessel. The sodium coning from this, is collected by another inner baffle and then returned to cold pool again. This system is termed as MV cooling circuit. The outer and inner baffles form feeding and restitution collectors respectively. The sodium from the feeding collector flows over the outer baffle and falls through a height of about 0.5 m before impacting on the free surface of sodium in the restitution collector. The fall of sodium may become a source of vibration of the baffles. Such vibrations have been already noted in case of SPX-I during its commissioning stage. For PFBR, the theoretical analysis was done to assess the fluid-elastic instability risks and stability charts were obtained. By this, it was concluded that the operating point (flow rate and fall height) lies within the stable zone. In order to confirm the above analysis results, a series of experiments were proposed. One preliminary experiment on 1/16 th model of MV cooling circuit has been completed. This model has also been analysed theoretically for the fluid- elastic instability, the theoretical analysis involves 2 stage computations. In the first stage, free vibration analysis with fluid structure interaction (FSI) effect for experimental model has been done using INCA (CASTEM 1985) code and all the mode shapes including sloshing are extracted. In the second stage the instability analysis is performed with the free vibration results from INCA. For the instability computations, a code WEIR has been written based on Aita's instability criteria [Aita.S. 1986

  2. ANSYS modeling of thermal contraction of SPL HOM couplers during cool-down

    CERN Document Server

    Papke, K

    2016-01-01

    During the cool-down the HOM coupler as well as the cavity inside the cryo module experience a thermal contraction. For most materials between room temperature and liquid helium temperatures, the changes in dimension are in the order of a few tenths of a percent change in volume. This paper presents the effect of thermal contraction on the RF transmission behavior of HOM couplers, and in particular the influence on its notch filter. Furthermore the simulation process with APDL is explained in detail. Conclusions about the necessary tuning range of the notch filter are made which is especially a concern for couplers with only notch filter.

  3. A model to predict the beginning of the pollen season

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toldam-Andersen, Torben Bo

    1991-01-01

    In order to predict the beginning of the pollen season, a model comprising the Utah phenoclirnatography Chill Unit (CU) and ASYMCUR-Growing Degree Hour (GDH) submodels were used to predict the first bloom in Alms, Ulttirrs and Berirln. The model relates environmental temperatures to rest completion...... and bud development. As phenologic parameter 14 years of pollen counts were used. The observed datcs for the beginning of the pollen seasons were defined from the pollen counts and compared with the model prediction. The CU and GDH submodels were used as: 1. A fixed day model, using only the GDH model...... for fruit trees are generally applicable, and give a reasonable description of the growth processes of other trees. This type of model can therefore be of value in predicting the start of the pollen season. The predicted dates were generally within 3-5 days of the observed. Finally the possibility of frost...

  4. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  5. Evaluation of the US Army fallout prediction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pernick, A.; Levanon, I.

    1987-01-01

    The US Army fallout prediction method was evaluated against an advanced fallout prediction model--SIMFIC (Simplified Fallout Interpretive Code). The danger zone areas of the US Army method were found to be significantly greater (up to a factor of 8) than the areas of corresponding radiation hazard as predicted by SIMFIC. Nonetheless, because the US Army's method predicts danger zone lengths that are commonly shorter than the corresponding hot line distances of SIMFIC, the US Army's method is not reliably conservative

  6. Comparative Evaluation of Some Crop Yield Prediction Models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A computer program was adopted from the work of Hill et al. (1982) to calibrate and test three of the existing yield prediction models using tropical cowpea yieldÐweather data. The models tested were Hanks Model (first and second versions). Stewart Model (first and second versions) and HallÐButcher Model. Three sets of ...

  7. Comparative Evaluation of Some Crop Yield Prediction Models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    (1982) to calibrate and test three of the existing yield prediction models using tropical cowpea yieldÐweather data. The models tested were Hanks Model (first and second versions). Stewart Model (first and second versions) and HallÐButcher Model. Three sets of cowpea yield-water use and weather data were collected.

  8. Model for the migration of the fission products along the coolant channels of a high temperature gas cooled reactor following a hypothetical accident of complete loss of cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickey, J.M.

    1978-05-01

    Under the assumption that a nonmechanistic accident induces a condition such that it is not possible to cool the core of a high temperature gas cooled reactor, the temperature of the core will gradually rise due to decay heat. There are several barriers to the release of fission products to the environment: the fuel particle coatings, the graphite moderator, the prestressed concrete reactor vessel and the containment. A code, EVAP, has been written to calculate one stage in the release and migration of the fission products along the coolant channels. The calculations, using the code, are reported for 10 fission products, based on typical conditions which might occur in the course of the hypothetical accident. The sensitivity of the results to several important parameters is examined

  9. Prediction of speech intelligibility based on an auditory preprocessing model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Claus Forup Corlin; Pedersen, Michael Syskind; Dau, Torsten

    2010-01-01

    Classical speech intelligibility models, such as the speech transmission index (STI) and the speech intelligibility index (SII) are based on calculations on the physical acoustic signals. The present study predicts speech intelligibility by combining a psychoacoustically validated model of auditory...

  10. Modelling microbial interactions and food structure in predictive microbiology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malakar, P.K.

    2002-01-01

    Keywords: modelling, dynamic models, microbial interactions, diffusion, microgradients, colony growth, predictive microbiology.

    Growth response of microorganisms in foods is a complex process. Innovations in food production and preservation techniques have resulted in adoption of

  11. Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

  12. A Prediction Model of the Capillary Pressure J-Function.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W S Xu

    Full Text Available The capillary pressure J-function is a dimensionless measure of the capillary pressure of a fluid in a porous medium. The function was derived based on a capillary bundle model. However, the dependence of the J-function on the saturation Sw is not well understood. A prediction model for it is presented based on capillary pressure model, and the J-function prediction model is a power function instead of an exponential or polynomial function. Relative permeability is calculated with the J-function prediction model, resulting in an easier calculation and results that are more representative.

  13. Statistical model based gender prediction for targeted NGS clinical panels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palani Kannan Kandavel

    2017-12-01

    The reference test dataset are being used to test the model. The sensitivity on predicting the gender has been increased from the current “genotype composition in ChrX” based approach. In addition, the prediction score given by the model can be used to evaluate the quality of clinical dataset. The higher prediction score towards its respective gender indicates the higher quality of sequenced data.

  14. comparative analysis of two mathematical models for prediction

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. A mathematical modeling for prediction of compressive strength of sandcrete blocks was performed using statistical analysis for the sandcrete block data ob- tained from experimental work done in this study. The models used are Scheffes and Osadebes optimization theories to predict the compressive strength of ...

  15. Comparison of predictive models for the early diagnosis of diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Jahani (Meysam); M. Mahdavi (Mahdi)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractObjectives: This study develops neural network models to improve the prediction of diabetes using clinical and lifestyle characteristics. Prediction models were developed using a combination of approaches and concepts. Methods: We used memetic algorithms to update weights and to improve

  16. Testing and analysis of internal hardwood log defect prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Edward. Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The severity and location of internal defects determine the quality and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. Models have been developed to predict the size and position of internal defects based on external defect indicator measurements. These models were shown to predict approximately 80% of all internal knots based on external knot indicators. However, the size...

  17. Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...

  18. Bayesian variable order Markov models: Towards Bayesian predictive state representations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dimitrakakis, C.

    2009-01-01

    We present a Bayesian variable order Markov model that shares many similarities with predictive state representations. The resulting models are compact and much easier to specify and learn than classical predictive state representations. Moreover, we show that they significantly outperform a more

  19. Demonstrating the improvement of predictive maturity of a computational model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Unal, Cetin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Atamturktur, Huriye S [CLEMSON UNIV.

    2010-01-01

    We demonstrate an improvement of predictive capability brought to a non-linear material model using a combination of test data, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and calibration. A model that captures increasingly complicated phenomena, such as plasticity, temperature and strain rate effects, is analyzed. Predictive maturity is defined, here, as the accuracy of the model to predict multiple Hopkinson bar experiments. A statistical discrepancy quantifies the systematic disagreement (bias) between measurements and predictions. Our hypothesis is that improving the predictive capability of a model should translate into better agreement between measurements and predictions. This agreement, in turn, should lead to a smaller discrepancy. We have recently proposed to use discrepancy and coverage, that is, the extent to which the physical experiments used for calibration populate the regime of applicability of the model, as basis to define a Predictive Maturity Index (PMI). It was shown that predictive maturity could be improved when additional physical tests are made available to increase coverage of the regime of applicability. This contribution illustrates how the PMI changes as 'better' physics are implemented in the model. The application is the non-linear Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) strength model applied to Beryllium metal. We demonstrate that our framework tracks the evolution of maturity of the PTW model. Robustness of the PMI with respect to the selection of coefficients needed in its definition is also studied.

  20. Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of