Earthquakes, gravity, and the origin of the Bali Basin: An example of a Nascent Continental Fold-and-Thrust Belt

Science.gov (United States)

McCaffrey, Robert; Nabelek, John

1987-01-01

We infer from the bathymetry and gravity field and from the source mechanisms and depths of the eight largest earthquakes in the Bali region that the Bali Basin is a downwarp in the crust of the Sunda Shelf produced and maintained by thrusting along the Flores back arc thrust zone. Earthquake source mechanisms and focal depths are inferred from the inversion of long-period P and SH waves for all events and short-period P waves for two of the events. Centroidal depths that give the best fit to the seismograms range from 10 to 18 km, but uncertainties in depth allow a range from 7 to 24 km. The P wave nodal planes that dip south at 13° to 35° (±7°) strike roughly parallel to the volcanic arc and are consistent with thrusting of crust of the Bali Basin beneath it. The positions of the earthquakes with respect to crustal features inferred from seismic and gravity data suggest that the earthquakes occur in the basement along the western end of the Flores thrust zone. The slip direction for the back arc thrust zone inferred from the orientation of the earthquake slip vectors indicates that the thrusting in the Bali Basin is probably part of the overall plate convergence, as it roughly coincides with the convergence direction between the Sunda arc and the Indian Ocean plate. Summation of seismic moments of earthquakes between 1960 and 1985 suggests a minimum rate of convergence across the thrust zone of 4 ± 2 mm/a. The presence of back arc thrusting suggests that some coupling between the Indian Ocean plate and the Sunda arc occurs but mechanisms such as continental collision or a shallow subduction of the Indian Ocean plate probably can be ruled out. The present tectonic setting and structure of the Bali Basin is comparable to the early forelands of the Andes or western North America in that a fold-and-thrust belt is forming on the continental side of an arc-trench system at which oceanic lithosphere is being subducted. The Bali Basin is flanked by the Tertiary Java

Changes in abundance and composition of anthropogenic marine debris on the continental slope off the Pacific coast of northern Japan, after the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goto, Tomoaki; Shibata, Haruka

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Benthic marine debris on continental slope off northeastern Japan quantified. • Low density of sea-base sourced debris dominant until 2011 Tohoku earthquake. • Increase in marine debris after the earthquake indicated by post-2011 tsunami survey. • Much increase in land-base sourced debris mainly due to 2011 tsunami. • Additional sources of land-based debris during post-tsunami survey implied. - Abstract: Abundance and composition of anthropogenic marine debris were assessed on the basis of six bottom trawl surveys conducted on the continental slope off Iwate Prefecture, Pacific coast of northern Japan, in 2003, 2004 and 2011, and the temporal changes due to the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in March 2011 evaluated. In 2003 and 2004, 54–94 items km −2 of marine debris, dominated by sea-base sourced items mainly comprising fishing gear and related items from adjacent fishing grounds on the continental shelf, were quantified. In the post-earthquake period, the density increased drastically to 233–332 items km −2 , due to an increase in land-base sourced items generated by the tsunami. However, a major increase in abundance after the disaster, compared to the total amount of tsunami debris swept into the sea, was not found. Additional sources of land-based debris from the adjacent continental shelf are suggested in the present waters

Understanding Great Earthquakes in Japan's Kanto Region

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Reiji; Curewitz, Daniel

2008-10-01

Third International Workshop on the Kanto Asperity Project; Chiba, Japan, 16-19 February 2008; The 1703 (Genroku) and 1923 (Taisho) earthquakes in Japan's Kanto region (M 8.2 and M 7.9, respectively) caused severe damage in the Tokyo metropolitan area. These great earthquakes occurred along the Sagami Trough, where the Philippine Sea slab is subducting beneath Japan. Historical records, paleoseismological research, and geophysical/geodetic monitoring in the region indicate that such great earthquakes will repeat in the future.

Earthquakes: no danger for deep underground nuclear waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-03-01

On the Earth, the continental plates are steadily moving. Principally at the plate boundaries such shifts produce stresses which are released in form of earthquakes. The highest the built-up energy, the more violent will be the shaking. Earthquakes accompany mankind from very ancient times on and they disturb the population. Till now nobody is able to predict where and when they will take place. But on the Earth there are regions where, due to their geological situation, the occurrence of earthquakes is more probable than elsewhere. The impact of a very strong earthquake on the structures at the Earth surface depends on several factors. Besides the ground structure, the density of buildings, construction style and materials used play an important role. Construction-related technical measures can improve the safety of buildings and, together with a correct behaviour of the people concerned, save many lives. Earthquakes are well known in Switzerland. Here, the stresses are due to the collision of the African and European continental plates that created the Alps. The impact of earthquake is more limited in the underground than at the Earth surface. There is no danger for deep underground repositories

Earthquake forecast for the Wasatch Front region of the Intermountain West

Science.gov (United States)

DuRoss, Christopher B.

2016-04-18

The Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities has assessed the probability of large earthquakes in the Wasatch Front region. There is a 43 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.75 or greater earthquakes and a 57 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquakes in the region in the next 50 years. These results highlight the threat of large earthquakes in the region.

Earthquake Swarm in Armutlu Peninsula, Eastern Marmara Region, Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Yavuz, Evrim; Çaka, Deniz; Tunç, Berna; Serkan Irmak, T.; Woith, Heiko; Cesca, Simone; Lühr, Birger-Gottfried; Barış, Şerif

2015-04-01

The most active fault system of Turkey is North Anatolian Fault Zone and caused two large earthquakes in 1999. These two earthquakes affected the eastern Marmara region destructively. Unbroken part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone crosses north of Armutlu Peninsula on east-west direction. This branch has been also located quite close to Istanbul known as a megacity with its high population, economic and social aspects. A new cluster of microseismic activity occurred in the direct vicinity southeastern of the Yalova Termal area. Activity started on August 2, 2014 with a series of micro events, and then on August 3, 2014 a local magnitude is 4.1 event occurred, more than 1000 in the followed until August 31, 2014. Thus we call this tentatively a swarm-like activity. Therefore, investigation of the micro-earthquake activity of the Armutlu Peninsula has become important to understand the relationship between the occurrence of micro-earthquakes and the tectonic structure of the region. For these reasons, Armutlu Network (ARNET), installed end of 2005 and equipped with currently 27 active seismic stations operating by Kocaeli University Earth and Space Sciences Research Center (ESSRC) and Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), is a very dense network tool able to record even micro-earthquakes in this region. In the 30 days period of August 02 to 31, 2014 Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) announced 120 local earthquakes ranging magnitudes between 0.7 and 4.1, but ARNET provided more than 1000 earthquakes for analyzes at the same time period. In this study, earthquakes of the swarm area and vicinity regions determined by ARNET were investigated. The focal mechanism of the August 03, 2014 22:22:42 (GMT) earthquake with local magnitude (Ml) 4.0 is obtained by the moment tensor solution. According to the solution, it discriminates a normal faulting with dextral component. The obtained focal mechanism solution is

Fault Branching and Long-Term Earthquake Rupture Scenario for Strike-Slip Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Klinger, Y.; CHOI, J. H.; Vallage, A.

2017-12-01

Careful examination of surface rupture for large continental strike-slip earthquakes reveals that for the majority of earthquakes, at least one major branch is involved in the rupture pattern. Often, branching might be either related to the location of the epicenter or located toward the end of the rupture, and possibly related to the stopping of the rupture. In this work, we examine large continental earthquakes that show significant branches at different scales and for which ground surface rupture has been mapped in great details. In each case, rupture conditions are described, including dynamic parameters, past earthquakes history, and regional stress orientation, to see if the dynamic stress field would a priori favor branching. In one case we show that rupture propagation and branching are directly impacted by preexisting geological structures. These structures serve as pathways for the rupture attempting to propagate out of its shear plane. At larger scale, we show that in some cases, rupturing a branch might be systematic, hampering possibilities for the development of a larger seismic rupture. Long-term geomorphology hints at the existence of a strong asperity in the zone where the rupture branched off the main fault. There, no evidence of throughgoing rupture could be seen along the main fault, while the branch is well connected to the main fault. This set of observations suggests that for specific configurations, some rupture scenarios involving systematic branching are more likely than others.

Anomalous soil radon fluctuations – signal of earthquakes in Nepal ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The present paper deals with pre-seismic soil radon-222 recorded at two different locations 200 m apart, at Jadavpur ..... prepared plastic cup is placed within the metallic container in ..... a micro-earthquake event in a stable continental region;.

Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043

Science.gov (United States)

Aagaard, Brad T.; Blair, James Luke; Boatwright, John; Garcia, Susan H.; Harris, Ruth A.; Michael, Andrew J.; Schwartz, David P.; DiLeo, Jeanne S.; Jacques, Kate; Donlin, Carolyn

2016-06-13

Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.

Gravity variation before the Akto Ms6.7 earthquake, Xinjiang

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongtao Hao

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The relationship between gravity variation and the Akto Ms6.7 earthquake on November 11, 2016, was studied by use of mobile gravity observation data from the China continental structural environmental monitoring network. The result revealed that before the Akto earthquake, a high positive gravity variation was observed in the Pamir tectonic knots region (within a maximum magnitude of approximately +80 microgal, which was consistent with the existing knowledge of gravity abnormality and the locations of strong earthquakes. In view of the recent strong seismic activities in the Pamir tectonic knots region, as well as the strong upward crust movement and compressive strain, it is believed that gravity change in the Pamir tectonic knots region reflects the recent strong seismic activities and crust movement.

Regional two-dimensional magnetotelluric profile in West Bohemia/Vogtland reveals deep conductive channel into the earthquake swarm region

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, Gerard; Weckmann, Ute; Pek, Josef; Kováčiková, Světlana; Klanica, Radek

2018-03-01

The West Bohemia/Vogtland region, characterized by the intersection of the Eger (Ohře) Rift and the Mariánské Lázně fault, is a geodynamically active area exhibiting repeated occurrence of earthquake swarms, massive CO2 emanations and mid Pleistocene volcanism. The Eger Rift is the only known intra-continental region in Europe where such deep seated, active lithospheric processes currently take place. We present an image of electrical resistivity obtained from two-dimensional inversion of magnetotelluric (MT) data acquired along a regional profile crossing the Eger Rift. At the near surface, the Cheb basin and the aquifer feeding the mofette fields of Bublák and Hartoušov have been imaged as part of a region of very low resistivity. The most striking resistivity feature, however, is a deep reaching conductive channel which extends from the surface into the lower crust spatially correlated with the hypocentres of the seismic events of the Nový Kostel Focal Zone. This channel has been interpreted as imaging a pathway from a possible mid-crustal fluid reservoir to the surface. The resistivity model reinforces the relation between the fluid circulation along deep-reaching faults and the generation of the earthquakes. Additionally, a further conductive channel has been revealed to the south of the profile. This other feature could be associated to fossil hydrothermal alteration related to Mýtina and/or Neualbenreuth Maar structures or alternatively could be the signature of a structure associated to the suture between the Saxo-Thuringian and Teplá-Barrandian zones, whose surface expression is located only a few kilometres away.

Foreshock occurrence rates before large earthquakes worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

Reasenberg, P.A.

1999-01-01

Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.

Clustered and transient earthquake sequences in mid-continents

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, M.; Stein, S. A.; Wang, H.; Luo, G.

2012-12-01

Earthquakes result from sudden release of strain energy on faults. On plate boundary faults, strain energy is constantly accumulating from steady and relatively rapid relative plate motion, so large earthquakes continue to occur so long as motion continues on the boundary. In contrast, such steady accumulation of stain energy does not occur on faults in mid-continents, because the far-field tectonic loading is not steadily distributed between faults, and because stress perturbations from complex fault interactions and other stress triggers can be significant relative to the slow tectonic stressing. Consequently, mid-continental earthquakes are often temporally clustered and transient, and spatially migrating. This behavior is well illustrated by large earthquakes in North China in the past two millennia, during which no single large earthquakes repeated on the same fault segments, but moment release between large fault systems was complementary. Slow tectonic loading in mid-continents also causes long aftershock sequences. We show that the recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region of North China are aftershocks of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M 7.5), rather than indicators of a new phase of seismic activity in North China, as many fear. Understanding the transient behavior of mid-continental earthquakes has important implications for assessing earthquake hazards. The sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in central US, which includes a cluster of M~7 events in 1811-1812 and perhaps a few similar ones in the past millennium, is likely a transient process, releasing previously accumulated elastic strain on recently activated faults. If so, this earthquake sequence will eventually end. Using simple analysis and numerical modeling, we show that the large NMSZ earthquakes may be ending now or in the near future.

Regional relationships among earthquake magnitude scales. Seismic safety margins research program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, D.H.; Bernreuter, D.L.

1980-09-01

The seismic body-wave magnitude m b of an earthquake is strongly affected by regional variations in the Q structure, composition, and physical state within the earth. Therefore, because of differences in attenuation of P-waves between the western and eastern United States, a problem arises when comparing m b 's for the two regions. A regional m b magnitude bias exists which, depending on where the earthquake occurs and where the P-waves are recorded, can lead to magnitude errors as large as one-third unit. There is also a significant difference between m b and M L values for earthquakes in the western United States. An empirical link between the m b of an eastern U.S. earthquake and the M L of an equivalent western earthquake is given y M L = 0.57 + 0.92(m b ) East . This result is important when comparing ground motion between the two regions and for choosing a set of real western U.S. earthquake records to represent eastern earthquakes. (author)

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation of Taiwan earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S.; Liu, Q.; Tromp, J.; Komatitsch, D.; Liang, W.; Huang, B.

2013-12-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 minutes after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 minutes for a 70 sec ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

Regional magnetic anomaly constraints on continental rifting

Science.gov (United States)

Vonfrese, R. R. B.; Hinze, W. J.; Olivier, R.; Bentley, C. R.

1985-01-01

Radially polarized MAGSAT anomalies of North and South America, Europe, Africa, India, Australia and Antarctica demonstrate remarkably detailed correlation of regional magnetic lithospheric sources across rifted margins when plotted on a reconstruction of Pangea. These major magnetic features apparently preserve their integrity until a superimposed metamorphoric event alters the magnitude and pattern of the anomalies. The longevity of continental scale magnetic anomalies contrasts markedly with that of regional gravity anomalies which tend to reflect predominantly isostatic adjustments associated with neo-tectonism. First observed as a result of NASA's magnetic satellite programs, these anomalies provide new and fundamental constraints on the geologic evolution and dynamics of the continents and oceans. Accordingly, satellite magnetic observations provide a further tool for investigating continental drift to compliment other lines of evidence in paleoclimatology, paleontology, paleomagnetism, and studies of the radiometric ages and geometric fit of the continents.

Moment-ration imaging of seismic regions for earthquake prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lomnitz, Cinna

1993-10-01

An algorithm for predicting large earthquakes is proposed. The reciprocal ratio (mri) of the residual seismic moment to the total moment release in a region is used for imaging seismic moment precursors. Peaks in mri predict recent major earthquakes, including the 1985 Michoacan, 1985 central Chile, and 1992 Eureka, California earthquakes.

Contributions to knowledge of the continental margin of Uruguay. Uruguayan continental margin: Physiographic and seismic analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preciozzi, F

2014-01-01

This work is about the kind of continental margins such as a )Atlantic type passive margins which can be hard or soft b) An active or Pacific margins that because of the very frequent earthquakes develop a morphology dominated by tectonic processes. The Uruguayan continental margin belongs to a soft Atlantic margin

A preliminary regional assessment of earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility for Vrancea Seismic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Micu, Mihai; Balteanu, Dan; Ionescu, Constantin; Havenith, Hans; Radulian, Mircea; van Westen, Cees; Damen, Michiel; Jurchescu, Marta

2015-04-01

In seismically-active regions, earthquakes may trigger landslides enhancing the short-to-long term slope denudation and sediment delivery and conditioning the general landscape evolution. Co-seismic slope failures present in general a low frequency - high magnitude pattern which should be addressed accordingly by landslide hazard assessment, with respect to the generally more frequent precipitation-triggered landslides. The Vrancea Seismic Region, corresponding to the curvature sector of the Eastern Romanian Carpathians, represents the most active sub-crustal (focal depth > 50 km) earthquake province of Europe. It represents the main seismic energy source throughout Romania with significant transboundary effects recorded as far as Ukraine and Bulgaria. During the last 300 years, the region featured 14 earthquakes with M>7, among which seven events with magnitude above 7.5 and three between 7.7 and 7.9. Apart from the direct damages, the Vrancea earthquakes are also responsible for causing numerous other geohazards, such as ground fracturing, groundwater level disturbances and possible deep-seated landslide occurrences (rock slumps, rock-block slides, rock falls, rock avalanches). The older deep-seated landslides (assumed to have been) triggered by earthquakes usually affect the entire slope profile. They often formed landslide dams strongly influencing the river morphology and representing potential threats (through flash-floods) in case of lake outburst. Despite the large potential of this research issue, the correlation between the region's seismotectonic context and landslide predisposing factors has not yet been entirely understood. Presently, there is a lack of information provided by the geohazards databases of Vrancea that does not allow us to outline the seismic influence on the triggering of slope failures in this region. We only know that the morphology of numerous large, deep-seated and dormant landslides (which can possibly be reactivated in future

Rapid earthquake hazard and loss assessment for Euro-Mediterranean region

Science.gov (United States)

Erdik, Mustafa; Sesetyan, Karin; Demircioglu, Mine; Hancilar, Ufuk; Zulfikar, Can; Cakti, Eser; Kamer, Yaver; Yenidogan, Cem; Tuzun, Cuneyt; Cagnan, Zehra; Harmandar, Ebru

2010-10-01

The almost-real time estimation of ground shaking and losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region was performed in the framework of the Joint Research Activity 3 (JRA-3) component of the EU FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infra-structures for European Seismology, NERIES". This project consists of finding the most likely location of the earthquake source by estimating the fault rupture parameters on the basis of rapid inversion of data from on-line regional broadband stations. It also includes an estimation of the spatial distribution of selected site-specific ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) or physical simulation of ground motion. By using the Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) software, the multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from GMPEs, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships.

Foreshock occurrence before large earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Reasenberg, P.A.

1999-01-01

Rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured in two worldwide catalogs over ???20-year intervals. The overall rates observed are similar to ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California. The aftershock model was extended to the case of moderate foreshocks preceding large mainshocks. Overall, the observed worldwide foreshock rates exceed the extended California generic model by a factor of ???2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events, a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, had a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, had a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have found low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggests the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich. If this is so, then the California generic model may significantly underestimate the conditional probability for a very large (M ??? 8) earthquake following a potential (M ??? 7) foreshock in Cascadia. The magnitude differences among the identified foreshock-mainshock pairs in the Harvard catalog are consistent with a uniform

Regional Seismic Amplitude Modeling and Tomography for Earthquake-Explosion Discrimination

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, W. R.; Pasyanos, M. E.; Matzel, E.; Gok, R.; Sweeney, J.; Ford, S. R.; Rodgers, A. J.

2008-12-01

Empirically explosions have been discriminated from natural earthquakes using regional amplitude ratio techniques such as P/S in a variety of frequency bands. We demonstrate that such ratios discriminate nuclear tests from earthquakes using closely located pairs of earthquakes and explosions recorded on common, publicly available stations at test sites around the world (e.g. Nevada, Novaya Zemlya, Semipalatinsk, Lop Nor, India, Pakistan, and North Korea). We are examining if there is any relationship between the observed P/S and the point source variability revealed by longer period full waveform modeling. For example, regional waveform modeling shows strong tectonic release from the May 1998 India test, in contrast with very little tectonic release in the October 2006 North Korea test, but the P/S discrimination behavior appears similar in both events using the limited regional data available. While regional amplitude ratios such as P/S can separate events in close proximity, it is also empirically well known that path effects can greatly distort observed amplitudes and make earthquakes appear very explosion-like. Previously we have shown that the MDAC (Magnitude Distance Amplitude Correction, Walter and Taylor, 2001) technique can account for simple 1-D attenuation and geometrical spreading corrections, as well as magnitude and site effects. However in some regions 1-D path corrections are a poor approximation and we need to develop 2-D path corrections. Here we demonstrate a new 2-D attenuation tomography technique using the MDAC earthquake source model applied to a set of events and stations in both the Middle East and the Yellow Sea Korean Peninsula regions. We believe this new 2-D MDAC tomography has the potential to greatly improve earthquake-explosion discrimination, particularly in tectonically complex regions such as the Middle East.

Latur earthquake and its impact on the aseismic design of structures in India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basu, P C [Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (India)

1995-07-01

The Latur earthquake occurred on September 30, 1995. The epicentre was located near the Killari village of Latur District which is situated in the stable continental region of Southern Peninsular India. The earthquake caused a wide range of damage though its magnitude (MS) was 6.4. Intensive damage survey was carried out and a number of geophysical and seismological studies had been undertaken. It has been concluded from the results, available so far from these studies, that the hypocentre of the earthquake was on the lineament dipping NW-SE. The rock matrix in the hypocentral region was weakened due to the presence of fluid and rupture of this weak region caused the event. The ground motion produced by the earthquake was of complex nature comprising of horizontal and vertical component. The ground acceleration in the epicentral region was estimated as 0.2 g. Latur earthquake raised several issues with respect to aseismic design of structures in India which need further deliberation. These issues are related to seismic zoning of India, determination of design basis ground motion, design/detailing of structures, etc. (author)

Latur earthquake and its impact on the aseismic design of structures in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basu, P.C.

1995-01-01

The Latur earthquake occurred on September 30, 1995. The epicentre was located near the Killari village of Latur District which is situated in the stable continental region of Southern Peninsular India. The earthquake caused a wide range of damage though its magnitude (MS) was 6.4. Intensive damage survey was carried out and a number of geophysical and seismological studies had been undertaken. It has been concluded from the results, available so far from these studies, that the hypocentre of the earthquake was on the lineament dipping NW-SE. The rock matrix in the hypocentral region was weakened due to the presence of fluid and rupture of this weak region caused the event. The ground motion produced by the earthquake was of complex nature comprising of horizontal and vertical component. The ground acceleration in the epicentral region was estimated as 0.2 g. Latur earthquake raised several issues with respect to aseismic design of structures in India which need further deliberation. These issues are related to seismic zoning of India, determination of design basis ground motion, design/detailing of structures, etc. (author)

Gravity Variations Related to Earthquakes in the BTTZ Region in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, J.; Liu, K.; Lu, H.; Liu, D.; Chen, Y.; Kuo, J. T.

2006-05-01

Temporal variations of gravity before and after earthquakes have been observed since 1960s, but a definitive conclusion has not been reached concerning the relationship between the gravity variation and earthquake occurrence. Since 1980, the first US/China joint scientific research project has been monitoring micro-gravity variations related to earthquakes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Zhangjiekou (BTTZ) region in China through the establishment of a network of spatially and temporally continuous and discrete gravity stations. With the data of both temporally continuous and discrete data of gravity variations accumulated and analyzed, a general picture of gravity variation associated with the seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes in the BTTZ region has been emerged clearly. Some of the major findings are 1. Gravity variations before and after earthquakes exist spatially and temporally; 2. Gravity variation data of temporally continuous measurements are essential to monitor the variations of gravity related to earthquakes unless temporally discrete gravity data are made in very close time intervals. 3. Concept of epicentroid and hypocentroid with respect to the maximum values of gravity variation is valid and has been experimentally verified; 4. The gravity variations related to the occurrence of earthquakes in the BTTZ region for the magnitudes of 4-5 earthquakes support the proposed "combined dilatation model", i.e., a dual-dilatancy of diffusion dilatancy (D/D) and the fault zone dilatancy (FZD) models; 5. Although the temporally discrete gravity variation data were collected in a larger time interval of about six months in the BTTZ region, these gravity variation data, in some cases, indicate that these variations are related to the occurrence of earthquakes; 7. Subsurface fluids do play a very important role in the gravity variations that have not been recognized and emphasized previously; 7. With the temporally continuous gravity variation data, the

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baer, M.; Deichmann, N.; Clinton, J.; Husen, S.; Faeh, D.; Giardini, D.; Kaestli, P.; Kradolfer, U.; Wiemer, S

2008-12-15

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2007. During this period, 531 earthquakes and 92 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. Of these earthquakes, 30 are aftershocks of the stimulation of a proposed geothermal reservoir beneath the city of Basel in December of 2006. With 20 events with {mu}{sub {iota}} {>=} 2.5, four of which were artificially induced, the seismic activity in the year 2007 was far below the average over the previous 32 years. (author)

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baer, M.; Deichmann, N.; Clinton, J.; Husen, S.; Faeh, D.; Giardini, D.; Kaestli, P.; Kradolfer, U.; Wiemer, S.

2008-01-01

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2007. During this period, 531 earthquakes and 92 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. Of these earthquakes, 30 are aftershocks of the stimulation of a proposed geothermal reservoir beneath the city of Basel in December of 2006. With 20 events with Μ ι ≥ 2.5, four of which were artificially induced, the seismic activity in the year 2007 was far below the average over the previous 32 years. (author)

Continental Transform Boundaries: Tectonic Evolution and Geohazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Steckler

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Continental transform boundaries cross heavily populated regions, and they are associated with destructive earthquakes,for example, the North Anatolian Fault (NAFacross Turkey, the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault in Haiti,the San Andreas Fault in California, and the El Pilar fault in Venezuela. Transform basins are important because they are typically associated with 3-D fault geometries controlling segmentation—thus, the size and timing of damaging earthquakes—and because sediments record both deformation and earthquakes. Even though transform basins have been extensively studied, their evolution remains controversial because we don’t understand the specifics about coupling of vertical and horizontal motions and about the basins’long-term kinematics. Seismic and tsunami hazard assessments require knowing architecture and kinematics of faultsas well as how the faults are segmented.

Modified Mercalli intensities for some recent California earthquakes and historic San Francisco Bay Region earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Bakun, William H.

1998-01-01

Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) data for recent California earthquakes were used by Bakun and Wentworth (1997) to develop a strategy for bounding the location and moment magnitude M of earthquakes from MMI observations only. Bakun (Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., submitted) used the Bakun and Wentworth (1997) strategy to analyze 19th century and early 20th century San Francisco Bay Region earthquakes. The MMI data and site corrections used in these studies are listed in this Open-file Report. 

Can mine tremors be predicted? Observational studies of earthquake nucleation, triggering and rupture in South African mines

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Durrheim, RJ

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Earthquakes, and the tsunamis and landslides they trigger, pose a serious risk to people living close to plate boundaries, and a lesser but still significant risk to inhabitants of stable continental regions where destructive earthquakes are rare... of experiments that seek to identify reliable precursors of damaging seismic events. 1. Introduction Earthquakes, and the tsunamis and landslides they trigger, pose a serious risk to people living close to plate boundaries, and a lesser but still significant...

No fault of their own: Increasing public awareness of earthquakes in aseismic regions

Science.gov (United States)

Galvin, J. L.; Pickering, R. A.; Wetzel, L. R.

2011-12-01

EarthScope's Transportable Array (TA) project is installing seismographs across the US, progressing from North America's seismically active West Coast to the passive Atlantic margin. The array consists of 400 seismic stations spaced ~70 km apart for a continental-scale experiment lasting 15 years. A student/faculty team from Eckerd College participated by using computer-based tools to identify potential seismograph sites; conducting field investigations to confirm site suitability; initiating contact with landowners; and preparing reconnaissance reports for future earthquake recording stations in Florida. An ideal seismograph site is in a quiet, dry, unshaded, open area that is remote yet accessible, with cellular network coverage and a willing private landowner. Scouting for site locations presented many challenges, including land use and ownership patterns; low-lying, flooded topography; noisy Atlantic and Gulf coastal regions; extensive river and lake systems; environmentally protected areas; road patterns with high traffic; urban population centers; and a populace unfamiliar with earthquakes. While many of these factors were unavoidable, developing the public's interest in seismology was a crucial step in gaining landowner participation. The majority of those approached were unfamiliar with the importance of earthquake research in an aseismic location. Being presented with this challenge encouraged the team to formulate different approaches to promote public interest and understanding of earthquake research in locations indirectly affected by seismic activity. Throughout the project, landowners expressed greater interest or were more likely to participate for a variety of reasons. For instance, landowners that had personal experience with earthquakes, were involved with the scientific community, or had previously collaborated with other research projects were most receptive to participating in the TA program. From this observation, it became clear that relating

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baer, M.; Deichmann, N.; Braunmiller, J.; Clinton, J.; Husen, S.; Faeh, D.; Giardini, D.; Kaestli, P.; Kradolfer, U.; Wiemer, S

2007-12-15

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006. During this period, 572 earthquakes and 91 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. Of these earthquakes, two occurred in conjunction with the construction of the new Gotthard railway tunnel and 165 were induced artificially by the stimulation of a proposed geothermal reservoir beneath the city of Basel. With 20 events with {mu}{sub {iota}} {>=} 2.5, five of which were artificially induced, the seismic activity in the year 2006 was far below the average over the previous 31 years. Nevertheless, six events were felt by the public, most prominently the strongest of the induced Basel events ({mu}{sub {iota}} 3.4), which caused some non-structural building damage. Noteworthy are also the two earthquakes near Cortaillod ({mu}{sub {iota}} 3.2), on the shore of Lake Neuchatel, and in Val Mora ({mu}{sub {iota}} 3.5), between the Engadin and Val Muestair, as well as the 42 aftershocks of the {mu}{sub {iota}} 4.9 Vallorcine earthquake, between Martigny and Chamonix, of September 2005. (author)

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baer, M.; Deichmann, N.; Braunmiller, J.; Clinton, J.; Husen, S.; Faeh, D.; Giardini, D.; Kaestli, P.; Kradolfer, U.; Wiemer, S.

2007-01-01

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006. During this period, 572 earthquakes and 91 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. Of these earthquakes, two occurred in conjunction with the construction of the new Gotthard railway tunnel and 165 were induced artificially by the stimulation of a proposed geothermal reservoir beneath the city of Basel. With 20 events with Μ ι ≥ 2.5, five of which were artificially induced, the seismic activity in the year 2006 was far below the average over the previous 31 years. Nevertheless, six events were felt by the public, most prominently the strongest of the induced Basel events (Μ ι 3.4), which caused some non-structural building damage. Noteworthy are also the two earthquakes near Cortaillod (Μ ι 3.2), on the shore of Lake Neuchatel, and in Val Mora (Μ ι 3.5), between the Engadin and Val Muestair, as well as the 42 aftershocks of the Μ ι 4.9 Vallorcine earthquake, between Martigny and Chamonix, of September 2005. (author)

REGIONAL SEISMIC AMPLITUDE MODELING AND TOMOGRAPHY FOR EARTHQUAKE-EXPLOSION DISCRIMINATION

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walter, W R; Pasyanos, M E; Matzel, E; Gok, R; Sweeney, J; Ford, S R; Rodgers, A J

2008-07-08

We continue exploring methodologies to improve earthquake-explosion discrimination using regional amplitude ratios such as P/S in a variety of frequency bands. Empirically we demonstrate that such ratios separate explosions from earthquakes using closely located pairs of earthquakes and explosions recorded on common, publicly available stations at test sites around the world (e.g. Nevada, Novaya Zemlya, Semipalatinsk, Lop Nor, India, Pakistan, and North Korea). We are also examining if there is any relationship between the observed P/S and the point source variability revealed by longer period full waveform modeling (e. g. Ford et al 2008). For example, regional waveform modeling shows strong tectonic release from the May 1998 India test, in contrast with very little tectonic release in the October 2006 North Korea test, but the P/S discrimination behavior appears similar in both events using the limited regional data available. While regional amplitude ratios such as P/S can separate events in close proximity, it is also empirically well known that path effects can greatly distort observed amplitudes and make earthquakes appear very explosion-like. Previously we have shown that the MDAC (Magnitude Distance Amplitude Correction, Walter and Taylor, 2001) technique can account for simple 1-D attenuation and geometrical spreading corrections, as well as magnitude and site effects. However in some regions 1-D path corrections are a poor approximation and we need to develop 2-D path corrections. Here we demonstrate a new 2-D attenuation tomography technique using the MDAC earthquake source model applied to a set of events and stations in both the Middle East and the Yellow Sea Korean Peninsula regions. We believe this new 2-D MDAC tomography has the potential to greatly improve earthquake-explosion discrimination, particularly in tectonically complex regions such as the Middle East. Monitoring the world for potential nuclear explosions requires characterizing seismic

Relations between source parameters for large Persian earthquakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Majid Nemati

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Empirical relationships for magnitude scales and fault parameters were produced using 436 Iranian intraplate earthquakes of recently regional databases since the continental events represent a large portion of total seismicity of Iran. The relations between different source parameters of the earthquakes were derived using input information which has usefully been provided from the databases after 1900. Suggested equations for magnitude scales relate the body-wave, surface-wave as well as local magnitude scales to scalar moment of the earthquakes. Also, dependence of source parameters as surface and subsurface rupture length and maximum surface displacement on the moment magnitude for some well documented earthquakes was investigated. For meeting this aim, ordinary linear regression procedures were employed for all relations. Our evaluations reveal a fair agreement between obtained relations and equations described in other worldwide and regional works in literature. The M0-mb and M0-MS equations are correlated well to the worldwide relations. Also, both M0-MS and M0-ML relations have a good agreement with regional studies in Taiwan. The equations derived from this study mainly confirm the results of the global investigations about rupture length of historical and instrumental events. However, some relations like MW-MN and MN-ML which are remarkably unlike to available regional works (e.g., American and Canadian were also found.

Spatial distribution of earthquake hypocenters in the Crimea—Black Sea region

Science.gov (United States)

Burmin, V. Yu; Shumlianska, L. O.

2018-03-01

Some aspects of the seismicity the Crime—Black Sea region are considered on the basis of the catalogued data on earthquakes that have occurred between 1970 and 2012. The complete list of the Crimean earthquakes for this period contains about 2140 events with magnitude ranging from -1.5 to 5.5. Bulletins contain information about compressional and shear waves arrival times regarding nearly 2000 earthquakes. A new approach to the definition of the coordinates of all of the events was applied to re-establish the hypocenters of the catalogued earthquakes. The obtained results indicate that the bulk of the earthquakes' foci in the region are located in the crust. However, some 2.5% of the foci are located at the depths ranging from 50 to 250 km. The new distribution of foci of earthquakes shows the concentration of foci in the form of two inclined branches, the center of which is located under the Yalto-Alushta seismic focal zone. The whole distribution of foci in depth corresponds to the relief of the lithosphere.

Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation II: Real-time Online earthquake Simulation (ROS) of Taiwan earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liu, Qinya; Tromp, Jeroen; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Huang, Bor-Shouh

2014-06-01

We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 min after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). A new island-wide, high resolution SEM mesh model is developed for the whole Taiwan in this study. We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 min for a 70 s ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

A model of characteristic earthquakes and its implications for regional seismicity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

López-Ruiz, R.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; Pacheco, A.F.

2004-01-01

Regional seismicity (i.e. that averaged over large enough areas over long enough periods of time) has a size-frequency relationship, the Gutenberg-Richter law, which differs from that found for some seismic faults, the Characteristic Earthquake relationship. But all seismicity comes in the end from...... active faults, so the question arises of how one seismicity pattern could emerge from the other. The recently introduced Minimalist Model of Vázquez-Prada et al. of characteristic earthquakes provides a simple representation of the seismicity originating from a single fault. Here, we show...... that a Characteristic Earthquake relationship together with a fractal distribution of fault lengths can accurately describe the total seismicity produced in a region. The resulting earthquake catalogue accounts for the addition of both all the characteristic and all the non-characteristic events triggered in the faults...

Some considerations regarding earthquake prediction - The case of Vrancea region -

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Enescu, Bogdan; Enescu, Dumitru

2000-01-01

Earthquake prediction research has been conducted for over 100 years with no obvious success. In the last year, the new modern concepts regarding the earthquake dynamics added another source of skepticism regarding the possibility of predicting earthquakes. However there are some recognizable trends, optimized in the recent years, which may give rise to more reliable and solid approaches to deal with this complex subject. In the light of these trends, emphasized by Aki, we try to analyze the new developments in the field, especially concerning the Vrancea region. (authors)

The Pocatello Valley, Idaho, earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, A. M.; Langer, C.J.; Bucknam, R.C.

1975-01-01

A Richter magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred at 8:31 p.m mountain daylight time on March 27, 1975, near the Utah-Idaho border in Pocatello Valley. The epicenter of the main shock was located at 42.094° N, 112.478° W, and had a focal depth of 5.5 km. This earthquake was the largest in the continental United States since the destructive San Fernando earthquake of February 1971. The main shock was preceded by a magnitude 4.5 foreshock on March 26. 

Integrating regional and continental scale comparisons of tree composition in Amazonian terra firme forests

Science.gov (United States)

Honorio Coronado, E. N.; Baker, T. R.; Phillips, O. L.; Pitman, N. C. A.; Pennington, R. T.; Vásquez Martínez, R.; Monteagudo, A.; Mogollón, H.; Dávila Cardozo, N.; Ríos, M.; García-Villacorta, R.; Valderrama, E.; Ahuite, M.; Huamantupa, I.; Neill, D. A.; Laurance, W. F.; Nascimento, H. E. M.; Soares de Almeida, S.; Killeen, T. J.; Arroyo, L.; Núñez, P.; Freitas Alvarado, L.

2009-01-01

We contrast regional and continental-scale comparisons of the floristic composition of terra firme forest in South Amazonia, using 55 plots across Amazonia and a subset of 30 plots from northern Peru and Ecuador. Firstly, we examine the floristic patterns using both genus- or species-level data and find that the species-level analysis more clearly distinguishes different plot clusters. Secondly, we compare the patterns and causes of floristic differences at regional and continental scales. At a continental scale, ordination analysis shows that species of Lecythidaceae and Sapotaceae are gradually replaced by species of Arecaceae and Myristicaceae from eastern to western Amazonia. These floristic gradients are correlated with gradients in soil fertility and to dry season length, similar to previous studies. At a regional scale, similar patterns are found within north-western Amazonia, where differences in soil fertility distinguish plots where species of Lecythidaceae, characteristic of poor soils, are gradually replaced by species of Myristicaceae on richer soils. The main coordinate of this regional-scale ordination correlates mainly with concentrations of available calcium and magnesium. Thirdly, we ask at a regional scale within north-western Amazonia, whether soil fertility or other distance dependent processes are more important for determining variation in floristic composition. A Mantel test indicates that both soils and geographical distance have a similar and significant role in determining floristic similarity across this region. Overall, these results suggest that regional-scale variation in floristic composition can rival continental scale differences within Amazonian terra firme forests, and that variation in floristic composition at both scales is dependent on a range of processes that include both habitat specialisation related to edaphic conditions and other distance-dependent processes. To fully account for regional scale variation in continental

Precursory slow-slip loaded the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Borghi, A.; Aoudia, A.; Javed, F.; Barzaghi, R.

2016-05-01

Slow-slip events (SSEs) are common at subduction zone faults where large mega earthquakes occur. We report here that one of the best-recorded moderate size continental earthquake, the 2009 April 6 moment magnitude (Mw) 6.3 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake, was preceded by a 5.9 Mw SSE that originated from the decollement beneath the reactivated normal faulting system. The SSE is identified from a rigorous analysis of continuous GPS stations and occurred on the 12 February and lasted for almost two weeks. It coincided with a burst in the foreshock activity with small repeating earthquakes migrating towards the main-shock hypocentre as well as with a change in the elastic properties of rocks in the fault region. The SSE has caused substantial stress loading at seismogenic depths where the magnitude 4.0 foreshock and Mw 6.3 main shock nucleated. This stress loading is also spatially correlated with the lateral extent of the aftershock sequence.

Validating a continental-scale groundwater diffuse pollution model using regional datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik

2017-12-11

In this study, we assess the validity of an African-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrates. In a previous study, we identified a statistical continental-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrate. The model was identified using a pan-African meta-analysis of available nitrate groundwater pollution studies. The model was implemented in both Random Forest (RF) and multiple regression formats. For both approaches, we collected as predictors a comprehensive GIS database of 13 spatial attributes, related to land use, soil type, hydrogeology, topography, climatology, region typology, nitrogen fertiliser application rate, and population density. In this paper, we validate the continental-scale model of groundwater contamination by using a nitrate measurement dataset from three African countries. We discuss the issue of data availability, and quality and scale issues, as challenges in validation. Notwithstanding that the modelling procedure exhibited very good success using a continental-scale dataset (e.g. R 2  = 0.97 in the RF format using a cross-validation approach), the continental-scale model could not be used without recalibration to predict nitrate pollution at the country scale using regional data. In addition, when recalibrating the model using country-scale datasets, the order of model exploratory factors changes. This suggests that the structure and the parameters of a statistical spatially distributed groundwater degradation model for the African continent are strongly scale dependent.

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-07-15

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Terrigenous sediment supply along the Chilean continental margin: modern regional patterns of texture and composition

Science.gov (United States)

Lamy, F.; Hebbeln, D.; Wefer, G.

The regional patterns of texture and composition of modern continental slope and pelagic sediments off Chile between 25°S and 43°S reflect the latitudinal segmentation of geological, morphological, and climatic features of the continental hinterland. Grain-size characteristics are controlled by the grain-size of source rocks, the weathering regime, and mode of sediment input (eolian off northern Chile vs fluvial further south). Bulk-mineral assemblages reveal a low grade of maturity. Regional variations are governed by the source-rock composition of the different geological terranes and the relative source-rock contribution of the Coastal Range and Andes, as controlled by the continental hydrology. The relative abundance of clay minerals is also predominantly influenced by the source-rock composition and partly by continental smectite neoformation. Latitudinal variations of illite crystallinities along the Chilean continental slope (and west of the Peru-Chile trench) clearly reflect modifications of the weathering regime which correspond to the strong climatic zonation of Chile.

Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

2006-01-01

for mega-earthquakes of M9.0+. The monitoring at regional scales may require application of a recently proposed scheme for the spatial stabilization of the intermediate-term middle-range predictions. The scheme guarantees a more objective and reliable diagnosis of times of increased probability and is less restrictive to input seismic data. It makes feasible reestablishment of seismic monitoring aimed at prediction of large magnitude earthquakes in Caucasus and Central Asia, which to our regret, has been discontinued in 1991. The first results of the monitoring (1986-1990) were encouraging, at least for M6.5+

Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

2006-03-01

for mega-earthquakes of M9.0+. The monitoring at regional scales may require application of a recently proposed scheme for the spatial stabilization of the intermediate-term middle-range predictions. The scheme guarantees a more objective and reliable diagnosis of times of increased probability and is less restrictive to input seismic data. It makes feasible reestablishment of seismic monitoring aimed at prediction of large magnitude earthquakes in Caucasus and Central Asia, which to our regret, has been discontinued in 1991. The first results of the monitoring (1986-1990) were encouraging, at least for M6.5+.

A mathematical model for predicting earthquake occurrence ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We consider the continental crust under damage. We use the observed results of microseism in many seismic stations of the world which was established to study the time series of the activities of the continental crust with a view to predicting possible time of occurrence of earthquake. We consider microseism time series ...

ANALYSIS OF REGULARITIES IN DISTRIBUTION OF EARTHQUAKES BY FOCAL DISPLACEMENT IN THE KURIL-OKHOTSK REGION BEFORE THE CATASTROPHIC SIMUSHIR EARTHQUAKE OF 15 NOVEMBER 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timofei K. Zlobin

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The catastrophic Simushir earthquake occurred on 15 November 2006 in the Kuril-Okhotsk region in the Middle Kuril Islands which is a transition zone between the Eurasian continent and the Pacific Ocean. It was followed by numerous strong earthquakes. It is established that the catastrophic earthquake was prepared on a site characterized by increased relative effective pressures which is located at the border of the low-pressure area (Figure 1.Based on data from GlobalCMT (Harvard, earthquake focal mechanisms were reconstructed, and tectonic stresses, the seismotectonic setting and the earthquakes distribution pattern were studied for analysis of the field of stresses in the region before to the Simushir earthquake (Figures 2 and 3; Table 1.Five areas of various types of movement were determined. Three of them are stretched along the Kuril Islands. It is established that seismodislocations in earthquake focal areas are regularly distributed. In each of the determined areas, displacements of a specific type (shear or reverse shear are concentrated and give evidence of the alteration and change of zones characterized by horizontal stretching and compression.The presence of the horizontal stretching and compression zones can be explained by a model of subduction (Figure 4. Detailed studies of the state of stresses of the Kuril region confirm such zones (Figure 5. Recent GeodynamicsThe established specific features of tectonic stresses before the catastrophic Simushir earthquake of 15 November 2006 contribute to studies of earthquake forecasting problems. The state of stresses and the geodynamic conditions suggesting occurrence of new earthquakes can be assessed from the data on the distribution of horizontal compression, stretching and shear areas of the Earth’s crust and the upper mantle in the Kuril region.

Earthquake Forecasting Methodology Catalogue - A collection and comparison of the state-of-the-art in earthquake forecasting and prediction methodologies

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

2015-04-01

Earthquake forecasting and prediction has been one of the key struggles of modern geosciences for the last few decades. A large number of approaches for various time periods have been developed for different locations around the world. A categorization and review of more than 20 of new and old methods was undertaken to develop a state-of-the-art catalogue in forecasting algorithms and methodologies. The different methods have been categorised into time-independent, time-dependent and hybrid methods, from which the last group represents methods where additional data than just historical earthquake statistics have been used. It is necessary to categorize in such a way between pure statistical approaches where historical earthquake data represents the only direct data source and also between algorithms which incorporate further information e.g. spatial data of fault distributions or which incorporate physical models like static triggering to indicate future earthquakes. Furthermore, the location of application has been taken into account to identify methods which can be applied e.g. in active tectonic regions like California or in less active continental regions. In general, most of the methods cover well-known high-seismicity regions like Italy, Japan or California. Many more elements have been reviewed, including the application of established theories and methods e.g. for the determination of the completeness magnitude or whether the modified Omori law was used or not. Target temporal scales are identified as well as the publication history. All these different aspects have been reviewed and catalogued to provide an easy-to-use tool for the development of earthquake forecasting algorithms and to get an overview in the state-of-the-art.

On the Regional Dependence of Earthquake Response Spectra

OpenAIRE

Douglas , John

2007-01-01

International audience; It is common practice to use ground-motion models, often developed by regression on recorded accelerograms, to predict the expected earthquake response spectra at sites of interest. An important consideration when selecting these models is the possible dependence of ground motions on geographical region, i.e., are median ground motions in the (target) region of interest for a given magnitude and distance the same as those in the (host) region where a ground-motion mode...

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan-Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, M. Moklesur; Bai, Ling; Khan, Nangyal Ghani; Li, Guohui

2018-02-01

The Himalayan-Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan-Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records back to more than 1000 years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rate γ, the Gutenberg-Richter b value, and the maximum expected magnitude M max are estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50 years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan-Tibetan region.

Post-earthquake denudation and its impacts on ancient civilizations in the Chengdu Longmenshan region, China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ningsheng; Li, Jun; Liu, Lihong; Yang, Chenglin; Liu, Mei

2018-05-01

This study characterizes significant changes in denudation and disasters in mountainous areas induced in the humid Chengdu Longmenshan region by the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008. A study focusing on the Longxi-Baisha River Basin was conducted to investigate the amount of denudation triggered by specific flash flood and debris flow events in 2009-2014. The following results were obtained through a comparison of pre-seismic regional denudation rates and denudation characteristics of other seismically active mountain regions. (1) Regional denudation processes occurred in a wave-like process of initial increase then decline, with a peak exhibiting a hyperbolic attenuation trend. This trend indicates that the denudation rate in the Chengdu Longmenshan region is expected to return to the pre-seismic rate of 0.3 mm a-1 after 81 years. In 22 years after the earthquake (Year 2030), debris flow disasters are expected to be rare. (2) Disasters increased significantly in the Chengdu Longmenshan region after the Wenchuan earthquake, with an average of 29.5 people missing or dead per year (22 times greater than the pre-earthquake rate) and average economic losses of 192 million Yuan per year (1.6 times greater than the pre-earthquake rate). (3) The denudation process was jointly controlled by the quantities of loose solid material and precipitation after the Wenchuan earthquake. The amount of loose solid material influenced the extent of denudation, while vegetation coverage rates and soil consolidation determined the overall denudation trend in the region, and changes in precipitation led to denudation fluctuations. (4) The results can be used to analyze the relationship between the potential flash flood-debris flow disasters after earthquakes in the ancient Shu kingdom and changes in historical social settlements. The results can also be used to predict denudation processes and disaster risks from earthquakes in humid mountainous regions around the world, such as the southern

An ongoing earthquake sequence near Dhaka, Bangladesh, from regional recordings

Science.gov (United States)

Howe, M.; Mondal, D. R.; Akhter, S. H.; Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Steckler, M. S.

2013-12-01

Earthquakes in and around the syntaxial region between the continent-continent collision of the Himalayan arc and oceanic subduction of the Sunda arc result primarily from the convergence of India and Eurasia-Sunda plates along two fronts. The northern front, the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates, has produced the Himalayas. The eastern front, the convergence of the Indian and Sunda plates, ranges from ocean-continent subduction at the Andaman Arc and Burma Arc, and transitions to continent-continent collision to the north at the Assam Syntaxis in northeast India. The India-Sunda convergence at the Burma Arc is extremely oblique. The boundary-normal convergence rate is ~17 mm/yr while the boundary-parallel rate is ~45 mm/yr including the well-known Sagaing strike-slip fault, which accommodates about half the shear component. This heterogeneous tectonic setting produces multiple earthquake sources that need to be considered when assessing seismic hazard and risk in this region. The largest earthquakes, just as in other subduction systems, are expected to be interplate events that occur on the low-angle megathrusts, such as the Mw 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 1762 earthquake along the Arakan margin. These earthquakes are known to produce large damage over vast areas, but since they account for large fault motions they are relatively rare. The majority of current seismicity in the study area is intraplate. Most of the seismicity associated with the Burma Arc subduction system is in the down-going slab, including the shallow-dipping part below the megathrust flooring the accretionary wedge. The strike of the wedge is ~N-S and Dhaka lies at its outer limit. One particular source relevant to seismic risk in Dhaka is illuminated by a multi-year sequence of earthquakes in Bangladesh less than 100 km southeast of Dhaka. The population in Dhaka (now at least 15 million) has been increasing dramatically due to rapid urbanization. The vulnerability

Environmental Health assessment 200 Days after Earthquake-Affected Region in East Azerbaijan Earthquake, North-Western of Iran, 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alihossein Zeinalzadeh

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Evaluating of health status and explore the challenges of health problems that threaten human life following disasters and major earthquakes providing windows of opportunities for health care providers in future planning of disasters. The main purpose of this report was to survey the environmental sanitation statues after 200 days of the affected populations in earthquakes of East Azerbaijan, northwestern of Iran, 2012. The survey was carried out in earthquake zones 200 days after the occurrence of the earthquake. A single stage cluster sampling from among 95 villages damaged in the earthquake of 2012 East Azerbaijan of three towns Ahar, Varzeghan and Heris were selected. The data were collected with questionnaire, site visits and evaluation of water and sanitation. In a twin Earthquake, East Azerbaijan province that 399 villages of Ahar, Varzeghan, Heris, Tabriz and Kaleibar cities were affected and 356 (89.2 % villages were destroyed between 30-100%.  Evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure after 200 days, shown that only half of these villages consumed healthy water with high coverage and adequate. Half of the villages in 200 days after the earthquake were covered safe drinking water (treated drinking water. The bacteriological quality of drinking-water supply of the affected area was assessed in randomly collected 146 samples from this region and ten (6.8% reported as unsuitable. Solid waste management facilities in residents have not been acceptable that affect public health. Solid waste disposal was done by district residents (cooperation rural residents 68.4%, 36.8% and 76.3% in Ahar, Varzeghan and Heris, respectively. Overall, the impact of infectious and communicable diseases after Earthquake was reported 42.1% (16 villages in the Varzeghan. The lack of geographical view with a focus in mountainous and rural areas, partial support and dispersion of earthquake-stricken people in affected villages and lack of participatory need

Technical NoteEarthquake dates and water level changes in wells in the Eskisehir region, Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Yuce

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Although satisfactory results have yet to be obtained in earthquake prediction, one of the most common indicators of an anomalous precursor is a change in groundwater level in existing wells. Further wells should thus be drilled in unconfined aquifers since these are more susceptible to seismic waves. The Eskisehir region lies in the transition zone between the Aegean extensional domain and the compressible northern Anatolian block. Limnigraphs, installed in 19 exploration wells in the Eskisehir region, recorded pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic level changes during the earthquakes of 17 August Izmit (Mw= 7.4 and 12 November Duzce (Mw= 7.2 1999 that occurred along the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The Izmit and Duzce earthquakes affected groundwater levels, especially in confined aquifers. The aquifer characteristics before and after the earthquakes were unchanged so the aquifer is elastic in its behaviour. Further detailed geo-mechanical investigation of the confined aquifer in the Eskisehir region may improve understanding of earthquake prediction. Keywords: earthquake prediction, Eskisehir, hydrological warning, monitoring groundwater levels

Regional dependence in earthquake early warning and real time seismology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caprio, M.

2013-01-01

An effective earthquake prediction method is still a Chimera. What we can do at the moment, after the occurrence of a seismic event, is to provide the maximum available information as soon as possible. This can help in reducing the impact of the quake on population or and better organize the rescue operations in case of post-event actions. This study strives to improve the evaluation of earthquake parameters shortly after the occurrence of a major earthquake, and the characterization of regional dependencies in Real-Time Seismology. The recent earthquake experience from Tohoku (M 9.0, 11.03.2011) showed how an efficient EEW systems can inform numerous people and thus potentially reduce the economic and human losses by distributing warning messages several seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the case of devastating earthquakes, usually, in the first minutes to days after the main shock, the common communications channels can be overloaded or broken. In such cases, a precise knowledge of the macroseismic intensity distribution will represent a decisive contribution in help management and in the valuation of losses. In this work, I focused on improving the adaptability of EEW systems (chapters 1 and 2) and in deriving a global relationship for converting peak ground motion into macroseismic intensity and vice versa (chapter 3). For EEW applications, in chapter 1 we present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Our method can be applied in any region without the need for calibration. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection and potentially stabilize within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection

Regional dependence in earthquake early warning and real time seismology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caprio, M.

2013-07-01

An effective earthquake prediction method is still a Chimera. What we can do at the moment, after the occurrence of a seismic event, is to provide the maximum available information as soon as possible. This can help in reducing the impact of the quake on population or and better organize the rescue operations in case of post-event actions. This study strives to improve the evaluation of earthquake parameters shortly after the occurrence of a major earthquake, and the characterization of regional dependencies in Real-Time Seismology. The recent earthquake experience from Tohoku (M 9.0, 11.03.2011) showed how an efficient EEW systems can inform numerous people and thus potentially reduce the economic and human losses by distributing warning messages several seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the case of devastating earthquakes, usually, in the first minutes to days after the main shock, the common communications channels can be overloaded or broken. In such cases, a precise knowledge of the macroseismic intensity distribution will represent a decisive contribution in help management and in the valuation of losses. In this work, I focused on improving the adaptability of EEW systems (chapters 1 and 2) and in deriving a global relationship for converting peak ground motion into macroseismic intensity and vice versa (chapter 3). For EEW applications, in chapter 1 we present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Our method can be applied in any region without the need for calibration. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection and potentially stabilize within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection

Paleoseismicity of two historically quiescent faults in Australia: Implications for fault behavior in stable continental regions

Science.gov (United States)

Crone, A.J.; De Martini, P. M.; Machette, M.M.; Okumura, K.; Prescott, J.R.

2003-01-01

Paleoseismic studies of two historically aseismic Quaternary faults in Australia confirm that cratonic faults in stable continental regions (SCR) typically have a long-term behavior characterized by episodes of activity separated by quiescent intervals of at least 10,000 and commonly 100,000 years or more. Studies of the approximately 30-km-long Roopena fault in South Australia and the approximately 30-km-long Hyden fault in Western Australia document multiple Quaternary surface-faulting events that are unevenly spaced in time. The episodic clustering of events on cratonic SCR faults may be related to temporal fluctuations of fault-zone fluid pore pressures in a volume of strained crust. The long-term slip rate on cratonic SCR faults is extremely low, so the geomorphic expression of many cratonic SCR faults is subtle, and scarps may be difficult to detect because they are poorly preserved. Both the Roopena and Hyden faults are in areas of limited or no significant seismicity; these and other faults that we have studied indicate that many potentially hazardous SCR faults cannot be recognized solely on the basis of instrumental data or historical earthquakes. Although cratonic SCR faults may appear to be nonhazardous because they have been historically aseismic, those that are favorably oriented for movement in the current stress field can and have produced unexpected damaging earthquakes. Paleoseismic studies of modern and prehistoric SCR faulting events provide the basis for understanding of the long-term behavior of these faults and ultimately contribute to better seismic-hazard assessments.

A General Method to Estimate Earthquake Moment and Magnitude using Regional Phase Amplitudes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pasyanos, M E

2009-11-19

This paper presents a general method of estimating earthquake magnitude using regional phase amplitudes, called regional M{sub o} or regional M{sub w}. Conceptually, this method uses an earthquake source model along with an attenuation model and geometrical spreading which accounts for the propagation to utilize regional phase amplitudes of any phase and frequency. Amplitudes are corrected to yield a source term from which one can estimate the seismic moment. Moment magnitudes can then be reliably determined with sets of observed phase amplitudes rather than predetermined ones, and afterwards averaged to robustly determine this parameter. We first examine in detail several events to demonstrate the methodology. We then look at various ensembles of phases and frequencies, and compare results to existing regional methods. We find regional M{sub o} to be a stable estimator of earthquake size that has several advantages over other methods. Because of its versatility, it is applicable to many more events, particularly smaller events. We make moment estimates for earthquakes ranging from magnitude 2 to as large as 7. Even with diverse input amplitude sources, we find magnitude estimates to be more robust than typical magnitudes and existing regional methods and might be tuned further to improve upon them. The method yields a more meaningful quantity of seismic moment, which can be recast as M{sub w}. Lastly, it is applied here to the Middle East region using an existing calibration model, but it would be easy to transport to any region with suitable attenuation calibration.

Comparison of hypocentre parameters of earthquakes in the Aegean region

Science.gov (United States)

Özel, Nurcan M.; Shapira, Avi; Harris, James

2007-06-01

The Aegean Sea is one of the more seismically active areas in the Euro-Mediterranean region. The seismic activity in the Aegean Sea is monitored by a number of local agencies that contribute their data to the International Seismological Centre (ISC). Consequently, the ISC Bulletin may serve as a reliable reference for assessing the capabilities of local agencies to monitor moderate and low magnitude earthquakes. We have compared bulletins of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) and the ISC, for the period 1976-2003 that comprises the most complete data sets for both KOERI and ISC. The selected study area is the East Aegean Sea and West Turkey, bounded by latitude 35-41°N and by longitude 24-29°E. The total number of events known to occur in this area, during 1976-2003 is about 41,638. Seventy-two percent of those earthquakes were located by ISC and 75% were located by KOERI. As expected, epicentre location discrepancy between ISC and KOERI solutions are larger as we move away from the KOERI seismic network. Out of the 22,066 earthquakes located by both ISC and KOERI, only 4% show a difference of 50 km or more. About 140 earthquakes show a discrepancy of more than 100 km. Focal Depth determinations differ mainly in the subduction zone along the Hellenic arc. Less than 2% of the events differ in their focal depth by more than 25 km. Yet, the location solutions of about 30 events differ by more than 100 km. Almost a quarter of the events listed in the ISC Bulletin are missed by KOERI, most of them occurring off the coast of Turkey, in the East Aegean. Based on the frequency-magnitude distributions, the KOERI Bulletin is complete for earthquakes with duration magnitudes Md > 2.7 (both located and assigned magnitudes) where as the threshold magnitude for events with location and magnitude determinations by ISC is mb > 4.0. KOERI magnitudes seem to be poorly correlated with ISC magnitudes suggesting relatively high uncertainty in the

Preliminary results of local earthquake tomography around Bali, Lombok, and Sumbawa regions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nugraha, Andri Dian, E-mail: nugraha@gf.itb.ac.id; Puspito, Nanang T; Yudistira, Tedi [Global Geophysical Reserach Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Institute of Technology Bandung, JlGanesa 10, Bandung, 40132 (Indonesia); Kusnandar, Ridwan; Sakti, Artadi Pria [Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (MCGA) of Indonesian, Jakarta (Indonesia)

2015-04-24

Bali, Sumbawa, and Lombok regions are located in active tectonic influence by Indo-Australia plate subducts beneath Sunda plate in southern part and local back-arc thrust in northern part the region. Some active volcanoes also lie from eastern part of Java, Bali, Lombok and Sumbawa regions. Previous studies have conducted subsurface seismic velocity imaging using regional and global earthquake data around the region. In this study, we used P-arrival time from local earthquake networks compiled by MCGA, Indonesia within time periods of 2009 up to 2013 to determine seismic velocity structure and simultaneously hypocenter adjustment by applying seismic tomography inversion method. For the tomographic inversion procedure, we started from 1-D initial velocity structure. We evaluated the resolution of tomography inversion results through checkerboard test and calculating derivative weigh sum. The preliminary results of tomography inversion show fairly clearly high seismic velocity subducting Indo-Australian and low velocity anomaly around volcano regions. The relocated hypocenters seem to cluster around the local fault system such as back-arc thrust fault in northern part of the region and around local fault in Sumbawa regions. Our local earthquake tomography results demonstrated consistent with previous studies and improved the resolution. For future works, we will determine S-wave velocity structure using S-wave arrival time to enhance our understanding of geological processes and for much better interpretation.

Earthquake risk assessment of Alexandria, Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Badawy, Ahmed; Gaber, Hanan; Ibrahim, Hamza

2015-01-01

Throughout historical and recent times, Alexandria has suffered great damage due to earthquakes from both near- and far-field sources. Sometimes, the sources of such damages are not well known. During the twentieth century, the city was shaken by several earthquakes generated from inland dislocations (e.g., 29 Apr. 1974, 12 Oct. 1992, and 28 Dec. 1999) and the African continental margin (e.g., 12 Sept. 1955 and 28 May 1998). Therefore, this study estimates the earthquake ground shaking and the consequent impacts in Alexandria on the basis of two earthquake scenarios. The simulation results show that Alexandria affected by both earthquakes scenarios relatively in the same manner despite the number of casualties during the first scenario (inland dislocation) is twice larger than the second one (African continental margin). An expected percentage of 2.27 from Alexandria's total constructions (12.9 millions, 2006 Census) will be affected, 0.19 % injuries and 0.01 % deaths of the total population (4.1 millions, 2006 Census) estimated by running the first scenario. The earthquake risk profile reveals that three districts (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) lie in high seismic risks, two districts (Gharb and Wasat) are in moderate, and two districts (Al-Gomrok and Burg El-Arab) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Al-Montazah is the highest vulnerable district whereas 73 % of expected damages were reported there. The undertaken analysis shows that the Alexandria urban area faces high risk. Informal areas and deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated earthquake risks (buildings damages) are concentrated at the most densely populated (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts.

Quantifying 10 years of improved earthquake-monitoring performance in the Caribbean region

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, Daniel E.; Hillebrandt-Andrade, Christa; Saurel, Jean-Marie; Huerfano-Moreno, V.; Lynch, Lloyd

2015-01-01

Over 75 tsunamis have been documented in the Caribbean and adjacent regions during the past 500 years. Since 1500, at least 4484 people are reported to have perished in these killer waves. Hundreds of thousands are currently threatened along the Caribbean coastlines. Were a great tsunamigenic earthquake to occur in the Caribbean region today, the effects would potentially be catastrophic due to an increasingly vulnerable region that has seen significant population increases in the past 40–50 years and currently hosts an estimated 500,000 daily beach visitors from North America and Europe, a majority of whom are not likely aware of tsunami and earthquake hazards. Following the magnitude 9.1 Sumatra–Andaman Islands earthquake of 26 December 2004, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG) for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Early Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE‐EWS) was established and developed minimum performance standards for the detection and analysis of earthquakes. In this study, we model earthquake‐magnitude detection threshold and P‐wave detection time and demonstrate that the requirements established by the UNESCO ICG CARIBE‐EWS are met with 100% of the network operating. We demonstrate that earthquake‐monitoring performance in the Caribbean Sea region has improved significantly in the past decade as the number of real‐time seismic stations available to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tsunami warning centers have increased. We also identify weaknesses in the current international network and provide guidance for selecting the optimal distribution of seismic stations contributed from existing real‐time broadband national networks in the region.

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

OpenAIRE

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-01-01

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

The ordered network structure and prediction summary for M ≥ 7 earthquakes in Xinjiang region of China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Men, Ke-Pei; Zhao, Kai

2014-01-01

M ≥ 7 earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in Xinjiang of China and its adjacent region since 1800. The main orderly values are 30 a x k (k = 1, 2, 3), 11 ∝ 12 a, 41 ∝ 43 a, 18 ∝ 19 a, and 5 ∝ 6 a. In the guidance of the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, based on previous research results, combining ordered network structure analysis with complex network technology, we focus on the prediction summary of M ≥ 7 earthquakes by using the ordered network structure, and add new information to further optimize network, hence construct the 2D- and 3D-ordered network structure of M ≥ 7 earthquakes. In this paper, the network structure revealed fully the regularity of seismic activity of M ≥ 7 earthquakes in the study region during the past 210 years. Based on this, the Karakorum M7.1 earthquake in 1996, the M7.9 earthquake on the frontier of Russia, Mongol, and China in 2003, and two Yutian M7.3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 were predicted successfully. At the same time, a new prediction opinion is presented that the future two M ≥ 7 earthquakes will probably occur around 2019-2020 and 2025-2026 in this region. The results show that large earthquake occurred in defined region can be predicted. The method of ordered network structure analysis produces satisfactory results for the mid-and-long term prediction of M ≥ 7 earthquakes.

Seismic Regionalization of Michoacan, Mexico and Recurrence Periods for Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Magaña García, N.; Figueroa-Soto, Á.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.; Zúñiga, R.

2017-12-01

Michoacán is one of the states with the highest occurrence of earthquakes in Mexico and it is a limit of convergence triggered by the subduction of Cocos plate over the North American plate, located in the zone of the Pacific Ocean of our country, in addition to the existence of active faults inside of the state like the Morelia-Acambay Fault System (MAFS).It is important to make a combination of seismic, paleosismological and geological studies to have good planning and development of urban complexes to mitigate disasters if destructive earthquakes appear. With statistical seismology it is possible to characterize the degree of seismic activity as well as to estimate the recurrence periods for earthquakes. For this work, seismicity catalog of Michoacán was compiled and homogenized in time and magnitude. This information was obtained from world and national agencies (SSN, CMT, etc), some data published by Mendoza and Martínez-López (2016) and starting from the seismic catalog homogenized by F. R. Zúñiga (Personal communication). From the analysis of the different focal mechanisms reported in the literature and geological studies, the seismic regionalization of the state of Michoacán complemented the one presented by Vázquez-Rosas (2012) and the recurrence periods for earthquakes within the four different seismotectonic regions. In addition, stable periods were determined for the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter (1944) using the Maximum Curvature and EMR (Entire Magnitude Range Method, 2005) techniques, which allowed us to determine recurrence periods: years for earthquakes upper to 7.5 for the subduction zone (A zone) with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique for the same years for earthquakes upper to 5 for B1 zone with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique; years for earthquakes upper to 7.0 for B2 zone with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique; and the last one, the Morelia-Acambay Fault Sistem zone (C zone) years for earthquakes

Local and regional minimum 1D models for earthquake location and data quality assessment in complex tectonic regions: application to Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Husen, S.; Clinton, J. F.; Kissling, E.

2011-01-01

One-dimensional (1D) velocity models are still widely used for computing earthquake locations at seismological centers or in regions where three-dimensional (3D) velocity models are not available due to the lack of data of sufficiently high quality. The concept of the minimum 1D model with appropriate station corrections provides a framework to compute initial hypocenter locations and seismic velocities for local earthquake tomography. Since a minimum 1D model represents a solution to the coupled hypocenter-velocity problem it also represents a suitable velocity model for earthquake location and data quality assessment, such as evaluating the consistency in assigning pre-defined weighting classes and average picking error. Nevertheless, the use of a simple 1D velocity structure in combination with station delays raises the question of how appropriate the minimum 1D model concept is when applied to complex tectonic regions with significant three-dimensional (3D) variations in seismic velocities. In this study we compute one regional minimum 1D model and three local minimum 1D models for selected subregions of the Swiss Alpine region, which exhibits a strongly varying Moho topography. We compare the regional and local minimum 1D models in terms of earthquake locations and data quality assessment to measure their performance. Our results show that the local minimum 1D models provide more realistic hypocenter locations and better data fits than a single model for the Alpine region. We attribute this to the fact that in a local minimum 1D model local and regional effects of the velocity structure can be better separated. Consequently, in tectonically complex regions, minimum 1D models should be computed in sub-regions defined by similar structure, if they are used for earthquake location and data quality assessment. (authors)

Local and regional minimum 1D models for earthquake location and data quality assessment in complex tectonic regions: application to Switzerland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Husen, S.; Clinton, J. F. [Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland); Kissling, E. [Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland)

2011-10-15

One-dimensional (1D) velocity models are still widely used for computing earthquake locations at seismological centers or in regions where three-dimensional (3D) velocity models are not available due to the lack of data of sufficiently high quality. The concept of the minimum 1D model with appropriate station corrections provides a framework to compute initial hypocenter locations and seismic velocities for local earthquake tomography. Since a minimum 1D model represents a solution to the coupled hypocenter-velocity problem it also represents a suitable velocity model for earthquake location and data quality assessment, such as evaluating the consistency in assigning pre-defined weighting classes and average picking error. Nevertheless, the use of a simple 1D velocity structure in combination with station delays raises the question of how appropriate the minimum 1D model concept is when applied to complex tectonic regions with significant three-dimensional (3D) variations in seismic velocities. In this study we compute one regional minimum 1D model and three local minimum 1D models for selected subregions of the Swiss Alpine region, which exhibits a strongly varying Moho topography. We compare the regional and local minimum 1D models in terms of earthquake locations and data quality assessment to measure their performance. Our results show that the local minimum 1D models provide more realistic hypocenter locations and better data fits than a single model for the Alpine region. We attribute this to the fact that in a local minimum 1D model local and regional effects of the velocity structure can be better separated. Consequently, in tectonically complex regions, minimum 1D models should be computed in sub-regions defined by similar structure, if they are used for earthquake location and data quality assessment. (authors)

Clay sediment accumulation rates on the monsoon-dominated western continental shelf and slope region of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Borole, D.V.

Clay accumulation rates shown in sediment cores from the nearshore to outer continental shelf and slope regions in water depths of 10-1246 m on the western continental margins of India were determined by the 210Pb dating technique. The 210Pb excess...

[Comment on “Should Memphis build for California's earthquakes?”] from S.E. Hough

Science.gov (United States)

Hough, Susan E.

The recent article by Seth Stein, Joseph Tomasello, and Andrew Newman raised thought-provoking questions about one of the most vexing open issues in hazard assessment in the United States: the hazard posed by ostensibly infrequent, large, mid-continental earthquakes. Many of the technical issues raised by this article are addressed by A. D. Frankel in the accompanying comment. I concur with this, and will only address and/or elaborate on a few additional issues here: (1) Detailed paleoseismic investigations have shown that the New Madrid region experienced sequences of large earthquakes around 900 and 1450 A.D.in addition to the historic events in 1811-1812. With a repeat time on the order of 400-500 years, these cannot be considered infrequent events. Paleoseismic investigations also reveal evidence that the prehistoric “events” were also sequences of two to three large earthquakes with a similar overall distribution of liquefaction in the greater New Madrid region as produced by the 1811-1812 sequence [Tuttle et al., 2002]. And if, as evidence suggests, the zone produces characteristic earthquakes, one will not see a commensurate rate of moderate events, as would be the case if seismicity followed the Gutenburg-Richter distribution.

Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey Part3

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneda, Yoshiyuki; Ozener, Haluk; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Kalafat, Dogan; Ozgur Citak, Seckin; Takahashi, Narumi; Hori, Takane; Hori, Muneo; Sakamoto, Mayumi; Pinar, Ali; Oguz Ozel, Asim; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Tanircan, Gulum; Demirtas, Ahmet

2017-04-01

There have been many destructive earthquakes and tsunamis in the world.The recent events are, 2011 East Japan Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan, 2015 Nepal Earthquake and 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake in Japan, and so on. And very recently a destructive earthquake occurred in Central Italy. In Turkey, the 1999 Izmit Earthquake as the destructive earthquake occurred along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The NAF crosses the Sea of Marmara and the only "seismic gap" remains beneath the Sea of Marmara. Istanbul with high population similar to Tokyo in Japan, is located around the Sea of Marmara where fatal damages expected to be generated as compound damages including Tsunami and liquefaction, when the next destructive Marmara Earthquake occurs. The seismic risk of Istanbul seems to be under the similar risk condition as Tokyo in case of Nankai Trough earthquake and metropolitan earthquake. It was considered that Japanese and Turkish researchers can share their own experiences during past damaging earthquakes and can prepare for the future large earthquakes in cooperation with each other. Therefore, in 2013 the two countries, Japan and Turkey made an agreement to start a multidisciplinary research project, MarDiM SATREPS. The Project runs researches to aim to raise the preparedness for possible large-scale earthquake and Tsunami disasters in Marmara Region and it has four research groups with the following goals. 1) The first one is Marmara Earthquake Source region observational research group. This group has 4 sub-groups such as Seismicity, Geodesy, Electromagnetics and Trench analyses. Preliminary results such as seismicity and crustal deformation on the sea floor in Sea of Marmara have already achieved. 2) The second group focuses on scenario researches of earthquake occurrence along the North Anatolia Fault and precise tsunami simulation in the Marmara region. Research results from this group are to be the model of earthquake occurrence scenario in Sea of Marmara and the

Density Sorting During the Evolution of Continental Crust

Science.gov (United States)

Kelemen, P. B.; Behn, M. D.; Hacker, B. R.

2015-12-01

We consider two settings - in addition to "delamination" of arc lower crust - in which dense, mafic eclogites founder into the convecting mantle while buoyant, felsic lithologies accumulate at the base of evolving continental crust. Arc processes play a central role in generating continental crust, but it remains uncertain how basaltic arc crust is transformed to andesitic continental crust. Dense, SiO2-poor products of fractionation may founder from the base of arc crust by "delamination", but lower arc crust after delamination has significantly different trace elements compared to lower continental crust (LCC). In an alternative model, buoyant magmatic rocks generated at arcs are first subducted, mainly via subduction erosion. Upon heating, these buoyant lithologies ascend through the mantle wedge or along a subduction channel, and are "relaminated" at
the base of overlying crust (e.g., Hacker et al EPSL 11, AREPS 15). Average buoyant lavas and plutons
for the Aleutians, Izu-Bonin-Marianas, Kohistan and Talkeetna arcs fall within the range of estimated LCC major and trace elements. Relamination is more efficient in generating continental crust than delamination. Himalayan cross-sections show Indian crust thrust beneath Tibetan crust, with no intervening mantle. There is a horizontal Moho at ca 80 km depth, extending from thickened Indian crust, across the region where Tibetan crust overlies Indian crust, into thickened Tibetan crust. About half the subducted Indian crust is present, whereas the other half is missing. Data (Vp/Vs; Miocene lavas formed by interaction of continental crust with mantle; xenolith thermometry) indicate 1000°C or more from ca 50 km depth to the Moho since the Miocene. We build on earlier studies (LePichon et al Tectonics 92, T'phys 97; Schulte-Pelkum et al Nature 05; Monsalve et al JGR 08) to advance the hypothesis that rapid growth of garnet occurs at 70-80 km and 1000°C within subducting Indian crust. Dense eclogites founder

Preseismic anomalies in soil-gas radon associated with 2016 M 6.6 Meinong earthquake, Southern Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Chou Fu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Taiwan is tectonically situated in a terrain resulting from the oblique collision between the Philippine Sea plate and the continental margin of the Asiatic plate, with a continuous stress causing the density of strong-moderate earthquakes and regional active faults. The continuous time series of soil radon for earthquake studies have been recorded and some significant variations associated with strong earthquakes have been observed. Earthquake prediction is not still operative but these correlations should be added to the literature about seismo-geochemical transients associated to strong earthquakes. Rain-pore pressure related variations, crustal weakness at the studied faults system is consistent with the simultaneous radon anomalies observed. During the observations, a significant increase of soil radon concentrations was observed at Chunglun-T1 (CL-T1, Hsinhua (HH, Pingtung (PT, and Chihshan (CS stations approximately two weeks before the Meinong earthquake (ML = 6.6, 6 February 2016 in Southern Taiwan. The precursory changes in a multi-stations array may reflect the preparation stage of a large earthquake. Precursory signals are observed simultaneously and it can apply certain algorithms the approximate location and magnitude of the impending earthquake.

Seismological database for Banat seismic region (Romania) - Part 1: The parametric earthquake catalogue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oros, E.; Popa, M.; Moldovan, I. A.

2008-01-01

The most comprehensive seismological database for Banat seismic region (Romania) has been achieved. This paper refers to the essential characteristics of the first component of this database, namely the Parametric Earthquakes Catalogue for the Banat Seismic Region (PECBSR). PECBSR comprises 7783 crustal earthquakes (3 ≤ h ≤ 25 km) with 0.4 ≤ M i ≥ 5.6 (M i is M L , M D , M S , M W , Mm and/or mb from compiled sources) occurred in the Banat region and its surroundings between years 1443 and 2006. Different magnitude scales were converted into moment magnitude scale, Mw. The completeness of PECBSR strongly depends on the time. (authors)

Normal-Faulting in Madagascar: Another Round of Continental Rifting?

Science.gov (United States)

Wysession, M. E.; Pratt, M. J.; Tsiriandrimanana, R.; Andriampenomanana Ny Ony, F. S. T.; Nyblade, A.; Durrheim, R. J.; Tilmann, F. J.; Rumpker, G.; Rambolamanana, G.; Aleqabi, G. I.; Shore, P.

2017-12-01

Analyses of seismicity and seismic structure within Madagascar suggest the current occurrence of crustal extension, which may be related to continental rifting associated with a diffuse boundary between the Somalia and Lwandle tectonic plates. Madagascar has participated in two major rifting events as part of the break-up of Gondwana: the break-away of Greater India (Madagascar, India, the Seychelles) away from mainland Africa during the Jurassic and the break-away of India from Madagascar during the Cretaceous. Seismic activity and the structures obtained from it, using data from the 2-year (2011-2013) MACOMO project, suggest that this break-up may not be finished, and that continental rifts may be developing again. There are fairly high levels of intraplate seismicity within Madagascar: over 800 events located during the 22 months of the deployment. For comparison, a 2-year deployment of seismometers within the upper Midwest of the U.S. yielded just 12 intraplate earthquakes. While the Madagascar seismicity occurs across the island, it is strongly concentrated in the central region, where Cenozoic volcanism has occurred through the Holocene, and earthquakes align along N-S-trending lineations associated with N-S-trending pull-apart graben structures. The thickness of the crust is still >40 km in this region, but it is underlain by a large low-velocity structure within the lithosphere and asthenosphere that is observed in our studies of surface-wave, body-wave, and Pn-phase tomography. Normal faulting is not observed everywhere on the island, however; seismicity in the north is largely strike-slip, and seismicity in the south appears to be largely reverse faulting. Several studies have suggested that the diffuse boundary between the Somalia and Lwandle plates runs roughly E-W across Madagascar. Extensional faulting seems to predominate only within central Madagascar, likely associated with the current volcanic activity, which also appears to be associated with the

Aftershock stress analysis of the April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake from the NAMASTE project

Science.gov (United States)

Pant, M.; Velasco, A. A.; Karplus, M. S.; Patlan, E.; Ghosh, A.; Nabelek, J.; Kuna, V. M.; Sapkota, S. N.; Adhikari, L. B.; Klemperer, S. L.

2016-12-01

Continental collision between the Indian plate and the Eurasian plate, converging at 45 mm/yr, has uplifted the northern part of Nepal forming the Himalaya. Because of this convergence, the region has experienced large, devastating earthquakes, including the 1934 Mw 8.4 Nepal-Bihar earthquake and two recent earthquakes on April 25, 2015 Mw 7.8 (Gorkha earthquake) and May 12, 2015 Mw 7.2. These quakes killed thousands of people and caused billion dollars of property loss. Despite some recent geologic and geophysical studies of this area, many tectonic questions remain unanswered. Shortly after the Gorkha earthquake, we deployed a seismic network, NAMASTE (Nepal Array Measuring Aftershock Seismicity Trailing Earthquake), to study the aftershocks of these two large events. Our network included 45 different seismic stations (16 short period, 25 broadband, and 4 strong motion sensors) that spanned the Gorkha rupture area. The deployment extends from south of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) to the Main Central Thrust region (MCT), and it to recorded aftershocks for more than ten months from June 2015 to May 2016. We are leveraging high-precision earthquake locations by measuring and picking P-wave first-motion arrival polarity to develop a catalog of focal mechanisms for the larger aftershocks. We will use this catalog to correlate the seismicity and stress related of the Indo-Eurasian plate margin, hoping to address questions regarding the complex fault geometries and future earthquake hazards at this plate margin.

Localizing Submarine Earthquakes by Listening to the Water Reverberations

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo, J.; Zhan, Z.; Wu, W.

2017-12-01

Mid-Ocean Ridge (MOR) earthquakes generally occur far from any land based station and are of moderate magnitude, making it complicated to detect and in most cases, locate accurately. This limits our understanding of how MOR normal and transform faults move and the manner in which they slip. Different from continental events, seismic records from earthquakes occurring beneath the ocean floor show complex reverberations caused by P-wave energy trapped in the water column that are highly dependent of the source location and the efficiency to which energy propagated to the near-source surface. These later arrivals are commonly considered to be only a nuisance as they might sometimes interfere with the primary arrivals. However, in this study, we take advantage of the wavefield's high sensitivity to small changes in the seafloor topography and the present-day availability of worldwide multi-beam bathymetry to relocate submarine earthquakes by modeling these water column reverberations in teleseismic signals. Using a three-dimensional hybrid method for modeling body wave arrivals, we demonstrate that an accurate hypocentral location of a submarine earthquake (<5 km) can be achieved if the structural complexities near the source region are appropriately accounted for. This presents a novel way of studying earthquake source properties and will serve as a means to explore the influence of physical fault structure on the seismic behavior of transform faults.

Radon variations in the Wellington region, New Zealand, and their relation to earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, R.; Whitehead, N.E.

1992-01-01

Temporal changes in the radon content of ground water and soil gas have been monitored in the Wellington region since early 1978 in order to examine their relation to earthquakes. New Zealand is a region of plate convergence and subduction with a moderate level of seismicity, both crustal and deep. The measurement technique is of the 'Track Edge' type and is simple and inexpensive to implement but is subject to several sources of error. The major feature of the data, in the form of monthly mean radon levels, is a large long term rise and fall in level lasting 2 1/2 to 3 years. Data from five sites are well correlated due to this feature but shorter term fluctuations are less well correlated. Effects of changes in the weather are small. The long term radon 'anomaly' cannot be convincingly related to any particular earthquake. Nor do earthquakes up to magnitude 5.2 within 100km show any clear effect on the radon level. Despite the lack of clear precursory effects due to specific earthquakes, there are some weak correlations between the radon level and the seismicity as a whole. These correlations, if physically real imply that post-event effects on radon are at least as important as precursory effects. However, it is not certain that the radon level is directly affected by earthquakes at all. It seems likely that the radon level reflects changes in regional strain rate that also monitor the seismicity. (auth). 14 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs

Seismotectonics of Western Turkey: A Synthesis of Source Parameters and Rupture Histories of Recent Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Taymaz, T.; Tan, O.; Yolsal, S.

2004-12-01

The Aegean region, including western Turkey and Greece, is indeed one of the most seismically active and rapidly deforming continental domains in the Earth. The wide range of deformational processes occurring in this region means that the eastern Mediterranean provides a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of the complex kinematics of continental collision, including strike-slip faulting and crustal extension, as well as associated seismicity and volcanism. The tectonic evolution of the Eastern Mediterranean region is dominated by effects of subduction along the Hellenic (Aegean) arc and of continental collision in eastern Anatolia and the Caucasus. Northward subduction of the African plate beneath western Anatolia and the Aegean region is causing crustal extension in the overlying Aegean province. The interplay between dynamic effects of the relative motions of adjoining plates thus controls large-scale crustal deformation and the associated earthquake activity in Turkey. The Aegean region has been subject to extension since Miocene time, and this extension has left a pronounced expression in the present-day topography. It is further widely accepted that the rapid extension observed in western Turkey is mainly accommodated by large active normal faults that control the geomorphology which is dominated by a series of E-W trending normal-fault-bounded horst and graben structures; the N-S extension inferred from these structures is consistent with regional earthquake focal mechanisms. The E-W trending Menderes graben, the NE-SW trending Burdur, Acigol and Baklan, and NW-SE trending Dinar and Sultandag-Aksehir basins all bounded by large faults form a system of half-graben whose orientation is evident in both the topography and the tilting of Neogene sediments adjacent to them. We have studied source mechanisms and rupture histories of ˜20 earthquakes using body-waveform modelling, and have compared the shapes and amplitudes of teleseismic long-period P

Crustal Gravitational Potential Energy Change and Subduction Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, P. P.

2017-05-01

Crustal gravitational potential energy (GPE) change induced by earthquakes is an important subject in geophysics and seismology. For the past forty years the research on this subject stayed in the stage of qualitative estimate. In recent few years the 3D dynamic faulting theory provided a quantitative solution of this subject. The theory deduced a quantitative calculating formula for the crustal GPE change using the mathematic method of tensor analysis under the principal stresses system. This formula contains only the vertical principal stress, rupture area, slip, dip, and rake; it does not include the horizontal principal stresses. It is just involved in simple mathematical operations and does not hold complicated surface or volume integrals. Moreover, the hanging wall vertical moving (up or down) height has a very simple expression containing only slip, dip, and rake. The above results are significant to investigate crustal GPE change. Commonly, the vertical principal stress is related to the gravitational field, substituting the relationship between the vertical principal stress and gravitational force into the above formula yields an alternative formula of crustal GPE change. The alternative formula indicates that even with lack of in situ borehole measured stress data, scientists can still quantitatively calculate crustal GPE change. The 3D dynamic faulting theory can be used for research on continental fault earthquakes; it also can be applied to investigate subduction earthquakes between oceanic and continental plates. Subduction earthquakes hold three types: (a) crust only on the vertical up side of the rupture area; (b) crust and seawater both on the vertical up side of the rupture area; (c) crust only on the vertical up side of the partial rupture area, and crust and seawater both on the vertical up side of the remaining rupture area. For each type we provide its quantitative formula of the crustal GPE change. We also establish a simplified model (called

Regional, Continental, and Global Mobility to an Emerging Economy: The Case of South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jenny J.; Sehoole, Chika

2015-01-01

This study examined mobility within the understudied region of southern Africa and particularly, the factors that drive and shape educational migration toward South Africa as a regional, continental, and global destination. Based on a survey administered to international students across seven South African universities, the findings revealed…

International Aftershock Forecasting: Lessons from the Gorkha Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Michael, A. J.; Blanpied, M. L.; Brady, S. R.; van der Elst, N.; Hardebeck, J.; Mayberry, G. C.; Page, M. T.; Smoczyk, G. M.; Wein, A. M.

2015-12-01

Following the M7.8 Gorhka, Nepal, earthquake of April 25, 2015 the USGS issued a series of aftershock forecasts. The initial impetus for these forecasts was a request from the USAID Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance to support their Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) which coordinated US Government disaster response, including search and rescue, with the Government of Nepal. Because of the possible utility of the forecasts to people in the region and other response teams, the USGS released these forecasts publicly through the USGS Earthquake Program web site. The initial forecast used the Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) model with generic parameters developed for active deep continental regions based on the Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) tectonic regionalization. These were then updated to reflect a lower productivity and higher decay rate based on the observed aftershocks, although relying on teleseismic observations, with a high magnitude-of-completeness, limited the amount of data. After the 12 May M7.3 aftershock, the forecasts used an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model to better characterize the multiple sources of earthquake clustering. This model provided better estimates of aftershock uncertainty. These forecast messages were crafted based on lessons learned from the Christchurch earthquake along with input from the U.S. Embassy staff in Kathmandu. Challenges included how to balance simple messaging with forecasts over a variety of time periods (week, month, and year), whether to characterize probabilities with words such as those suggested by the IPCC (IPCC, 2010), how to word the messages in a way that would translate accurately into Nepali and not alarm the public, and how to present the probabilities of unlikely but possible large and potentially damaging aftershocks, such as the M7.3 event, which had an estimated probability of only 1-in-200 for the week in which it occurred.

Calibration of Crustal Historical Earthquakes from Intra-Carpathian Region of Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Oros, Eugen; Popa, Mihaela; Rogozea, Maria

2017-12-01

The main task of the presented study is to elaborate a set of relations of mutual conversion macroseismic intensity - magnitude, necessary for the calibration of the historical crustal earthquakes produced in the Intra - Carpathian region of Romania, as a prerequisite for homogenization of the parametric catalogue of Romanian earthquakes. To achieve the goal, we selected a set of earthquakes for which we have quality macroseismic data and the Mw moment magnitude obtained instrumentally. These seismic events were used to determine the relations between the Mw and the peak/epicentral intensity, the isoseist surface area for I=3, I=4 and I=5: Mw = f (Imax / Io), Mw = f (Imax / Io, h), Mw = f (A3, A4; A5). We investigated several variants of such relationships and combinations, taking into account that the macroseismic data necessary for the re-evaluation of historical earthquakes in the investigated region are available in several forms. Thus, a number of investigations provided various information resulted after revising initial historical data: 1) Intensity data point (IDP) assimilated or not with the epicentre intensity after analysis of the correlation level with recent seismicity data and / or active tectonics / seismotectonics, 2) Sets of intensities obtained in several localities (IDPs) with variable values having maxims that can be considered equal to epicentral intensity (Io), 3) Sets of intensities obtained in several localities (IDPs) but without obvious maximum values, assimilable with the epicentral intensity, 4) maps with isoseismals, 5) Information on the areas in which the investigated earthquake was felt or the area of perceptiveness (e.g. I = 3 EMS during the day and I = 4 EMS at night) or the surfaces corresponding to a certain degree of well-defined intensity. The obtained relationships were validated using a set of earthquakes with instrumental source parameters (localization, depth, Mw). These relationships lead to redundant results meaningful in

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, X. C.; Mora, P.; Peng, K.; Wang, Y. C.; Weatherley, D.

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Source processes of strong earthquakes in the North Tien-Shan region

Science.gov (United States)

Kulikova, G.; Krueger, F.

2013-12-01

Tien-Shan region attracts attention of scientists worldwide due to its complexity and tectonic uniqueness. A series of very strong destructive earthquakes occurred in Tien-Shan at the turn of XIX and XX centuries. Such large intraplate earthquakes are rare in seismology, which increases the interest in the Tien-Shan region. The presented study focuses on the source processes of large earthquakes in Tien-Shan. The amount of seismic data is limited for those early times. In 1889, when a major earthquake has occurred in Tien-Shan, seismic instruments were installed in very few locations in the world and these analog records did not survive till nowadays. Although around a hundred seismic stations were operating at the beginning of XIX century worldwide, it is not always possible to get high quality analog seismograms. Digitizing seismograms is a very important step in the work with analog seismic records. While working with historical seismic records one has to take into account all the aspects and uncertainties of manual digitizing and the lack of accurate timing and instrument characteristics. In this study, we develop an easy-to-handle and fast digitization program on the basis of already existing software which allows to speed up digitizing process and to account for all the recoding system uncertainties. Owing to the lack of absolute timing for the historical earthquakes (due to the absence of a universal clock at that time), we used time differences between P and S phases to relocate the earthquakes in North Tien-Shan and the body-wave amplitudes to estimate their magnitudes. Combining our results with geological data, five earthquakes in North Tien-Shan were precisely relocated. The digitizing of records can introduce steps into the seismograms which makes restitution (removal of instrument response) undesirable. To avoid the restitution, we simulated historic seismograph recordings with given values for damping and free period of the respective instrument and

Submarine slope failures along the convergent continental margin of the Middle America Trench

Science.gov (United States)

Harders, Rieka; Ranero, CéSar R.; Weinrebe, Wilhelm; Behrmann, Jan H.

2011-06-01

well-defined horst and graben topography. Off El Salvador slope failure is least developed and mainly occurs in the uppermost continental slope at canyon walls. Off Guatemala mass wasting is abundant and possibly related to normal faulting across the slope. Collapse in the wake of subducting ocean plate topography is a likely failure trigger of slumps. Rapid oversteepening above subducting relief may trigger translational slides in the middle Nicaraguan upper Costa Rican slope. Earthquake shaking may be a trigger, but we interpret that slope failure rate is lower than recurrence time of large earthquakes in the region. Generally, our analysis indicates that the importance of mass wasting processes in the evolution of margins dominated by subduction erosion and its role in sediment dynamics may have been previously underestimated.

An efficient rapid warning system for earthquakes in the European - Mediterranean region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazet-Roux, G.; Bossu, R; Tome, M.; Giovambattista, R. Di

2002-01-01

Every year a few damaging earthquakes occur in the European-Mediterranean region. It is therefore indispensable to operate a real-time warning system in order to provide rapidly reliable estimates of the location, depth and magnitude of these seismic events. In order to provide this information in a timely manner both to the scientific community and to the European and national authorities dealing with natural hazards and relief organisation, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) has federated a network of seismic networks exchanging their data in quasi real-time. Today, thanks to the Internet, the EMSC receives real-time information about earthquakes from about thirty seismological institutes. As soon as data reach the EMSC, they are displayed on the EMSC Web pages (www.emsc-csem.org). A seismic alert is generated for any potentially damaging earthquake in the European-Mediterranean region and disseminated within one hour following its occurrence. Potentially damaging earthquakes are defined as seismic events of magnitude 5 or above in the European-Mediterranean region. The utility of this EMSC service is clearly demonstrated by its following among the public: EMSC e-mail dissemination list has been subscribed by about 300 institutions (ECHO, NGO, civil defence services, seismological institutes) or individuals and the rate of internet connections to EMSC web site dramatically increase following an alert. The aim of this presentation is to give a complete technical description of the EMSC warning system. We will also take this opportunity to thank each of the contributing institutions for their support and efforts to enhance the system performances. (authors)

Anomalous migration of shallow groundwater and gases in the Beijing region and the 1976 Tangshan earthquake

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shi, H. (Seismological Brigade of Beijing, China); Cai, Z.; Gao, M.

1980-02-01

The character and cause of blowing out of gases and emission of sound from dry wells and of water becoming muddy and changing of level in water wells of the Beijing region immediately before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and its strong aftershocks are investigated. These phenomena, taken as possible precursors of the earthquakes as well as the motivating force, mechanism, geological background and material sources of the anomalous migration are discussed. Besides, the paper also deals with the relation between these anomalies and the Tangshan earthquake and the significance of the study of groundwater as far as earthquake prediction is concerned. No gaseous gushing from great depth in considerable quantities appeared so that migration should be regarded only as the migration of shallow groundwater and gases. This is referred to the consequence of the action on certain hydrogeological structures of an impulse-like extra tectonic stress field on the active faults in the Beijing region under a unified regional stress field. The present authors suppose that further studies of the anomalous migration of groundwater and gases possibly may be fruitful to earthquake prediction work.

Anomalous migration of shallow groundwater and gases in the Beijing region and the 1976 Tangshan earthquake

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shi, H.; Cai, Z.; Gao, M.

1980-02-01

The character and cause of blowing out of gases and emission of sound from dry wells and of water becoming muddy and changing of level in water wells of the Beijing region immediately before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and its strong aftershocks are investigated. These phenomena, taken as possible precursors of the earthquakes as well as the motivating force, mechanism, geological background and material sources of the anomalous migration, are discussed. In addition, the paper also deals with the relation between these anomalies and the Tangshan earthquake and the significance of the study of groundwater as far as earthquake prediction is concerned. No gaseous gushing from great depth in considerable quantities appeared so that migration should be regarded only as the migration of shallow groundwater and gases. This is referred to as the consequence of the action on certain hydrogeological structures of an impulse-like extra tectonic stress field on the active faults in the Beijing region under a unified regional stress field. The present authors suppose that further studies of the anomalous migration of groundwater and gases possibly may be fruitful to earthquake prediction work.

Recent changes in continentality and aridity conditions over the Middle East and North Africa region, and their association with circulation patterns

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

2016-05-30

A long-term (1960-2013) assessment of the variability of continentality and aridity conditions over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was undertaken. Monthly gridded temperature and precipitation data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) (TS3.22 version) were used to compute the Johansson Continentality Index (JCI) and the Marsz Oceanity Index (MOI). In addition, the De Martonne index and the Pinna index were employed to assess recent changes in aridity conditions. All indices revealed a statistically significant increase in continental influences over the region, particularly in the Nile Basin and the Fertile Crescent. For aridity, the results suggested a generally statistically insignificant increase, with the most rapid changes occurring over the most humid regions (i.e. the Ethiopian Highlands and the Fertile Crescent). In order to explain the observed changes in the continentality and aridity conditions, we assessed the relationship between aridity and continentality indices and a wide range of large-scale circulation patterns. Results indicate that the spatial variability of continentality (as well as aridity) was closely coupled with the Atlantic modes of variability, e.g. the Eastern Atlantic pattern and the Atlantic Meridional Mode, compared to those of the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The results of this work highlight change processes in 2 important climate features in one of the hottest regions on Earth. Improving our understanding of the spatio-temporal characteristics of climate continentality and aridity has implications for a diversity of socio-political, economic, hydrological, and ecological activities in the MENA region.

Recent changes in continentality and aridity conditions over the Middle East and North Africa region, and their association with circulation patterns

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Robaa, Sayed M.; Lopez-Moreno, Juan I.

2016-01-01

A long-term (1960-2013) assessment of the variability of continentality and aridity conditions over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was undertaken. Monthly gridded temperature and precipitation data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) (TS3.22 version) were used to compute the Johansson Continentality Index (JCI) and the Marsz Oceanity Index (MOI). In addition, the De Martonne index and the Pinna index were employed to assess recent changes in aridity conditions. All indices revealed a statistically significant increase in continental influences over the region, particularly in the Nile Basin and the Fertile Crescent. For aridity, the results suggested a generally statistically insignificant increase, with the most rapid changes occurring over the most humid regions (i.e. the Ethiopian Highlands and the Fertile Crescent). In order to explain the observed changes in the continentality and aridity conditions, we assessed the relationship between aridity and continentality indices and a wide range of large-scale circulation patterns. Results indicate that the spatial variability of continentality (as well as aridity) was closely coupled with the Atlantic modes of variability, e.g. the Eastern Atlantic pattern and the Atlantic Meridional Mode, compared to those of the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The results of this work highlight change processes in 2 important climate features in one of the hottest regions on Earth. Improving our understanding of the spatio-temporal characteristics of climate continentality and aridity has implications for a diversity of socio-political, economic, hydrological, and ecological activities in the MENA region.

The evaluation of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic source regions in and around Ağrı

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı/Turkey (Turkey); Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr [Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon/Turkey (Turkey)

2016-04-18

The aim of this study; were determined of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic sources of the Ağrı and vicinity. A homogeneous earthquake catalog has been examined for 1900-2015 (the instrumental period) with 456 earthquake data for Ağrı and vicinity. Catalog; Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (Burke), National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC), TUBITAK, TURKNET the International Seismological Center (ISC), Seismological Research Institute (IRIS) has been created using different catalogs like. Ağrı and vicinity are divided into 7 different seismic source regions with epicenter distribution of formed earthquakes in the instrumental period, focal mechanism solutions, and existing tectonic structures. In the study, the average magnitude value are calculated according to the specified magnitude ranges for 7 different seismic source region. According to the estimated calculations for 7 different seismic source regions, the biggest difference corresponding with the classes of determined magnitudes between observed and expected cumulative probabilities are determined. The recurrence period and earthquake occurrence number per year are estimated of occurring earthquakes in the Ağrı and vicinity. As a result, 7 different seismic source regions are determined occurrence probabilities of an earthquake 3.2 magnitude, Region 1 was greater than 6.7 magnitude, Region 2 was greater than than 4.7 magnitude, Region 3 was greater than 5.2 magnitude, Region 4 was greater than 6.2 magnitude, Region 5 was greater than 5.7 magnitude, Region 6 was greater than 7.2 magnitude, Region 7 was greater than 6.2 magnitude. The highest observed magnitude 7 different seismic source regions of Ağrı and vicinity are estimated 7 magnitude in Region 6. Region 6 are determined according to determining magnitudes, occurrence years of earthquakes in the future years, respectively, 7.2 magnitude was in 158

The 5th July 1930 earthquake at Montilla (S Spain). Use of regionally recorded smoked paper seismograms

Science.gov (United States)

Batlló, J.; Stich, D.; Macià, R.; Morales, J.

2009-04-01

On the night of 5th July 1930 a damaging earthquake struck the town of Montilla (near Córdoba, S-Spain) and its surroundings. Magnitude estimation for this earthquake is M=5, and its epicentral intensity has been evaluated as VIII (MSK). Even it is an earthquake of moderate size, it is the largest one in-strumentally recorded in this region. This makes this event of interest for a better definition of the regional seismicity. For this reason we decided to study a new its source from the analysis of the available contemporary seismograms and related documents. A total of 25 seismograms from 11 seismic stations have been collected and digitized. Processing of some of the records has been difficult because they were obtained from microfilm or contemporary reproductions on journals. Most of them are on smoked paper and recorded at regional distances. This poses a good opportunity to test the limits of the use of such low frequency - low dynamics recorded seismograms for the study of regional events. Results are promising: Using such regional seismograms the event has been relocated, its magnitude recalculated (Mw 5.1) and inversion of waveforms to elucidate its focal mechanism has been performed. We present the results of this research and its consequences for the regional seismicity and we compare them with present smaller earthquakes occurred in the same place and with the results obtained for earthquakes of similar size occurred more to the East on 1951.

Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

2016-04-01

Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

Continental Extensional Tectonics in the Basins and Ranges and Aegean Regions: A Review

Science.gov (United States)

Cemen, I.

2017-12-01

The Basins and Ranges of North America and the Aegean Region of Eastern Europe and Asia Minor have been long considered as the two best developed examples of continental extension. The two regions contain well-developed normal faults which were considered almost vertical in the 1950s and 1960s. By the mid 1980s, however, overwhelming field evidence emerged to conclude that the dip angle normal faults in the two regions may range from almost vertical to almost horizontal. This led to the discovery that high-grade metamorphic rocks could be brought to surface by the exhumation of mid-crustal rocks along major low-angle normal faults (detachment faults) which were previously either mapped as thrust faults or unconformity. Within the last three decades, our understanding of continental extensional tectonics in the Basins and Ranges and the Aegean Region have improved substantially based on fieldwork, geochemical analysis, analog and computer modeling, detailed radiometric age determinations and thermokinematic modelling. It is now widely accepted that a) Basin and Range extension is controlled by the movement along the San Andreas fault zone as the North American plate moved southeastward with respect to the northwestward movement of the Pacific plate; b) Aegean extension is controlled by subduction roll-back associated with the Hellenic subduction zone; and c) the two regions contain best examples of detachment faulting, extensional folding, and extensional basins. However, there are still many important questions of continental extensional tectonics in the two regions that remain poorly understood. These include determining a) precise amount and percentage of cumulative extension; b) role of strike-slip faulting in the extensional processes; c) exhumation history along detachment surfaces using multimethod geochronology; d) geometry and nature of extensional features in the middle and lower crust; e) the nature of upper mantle and asthenospheric flow; f) evolutions

Impact of sea-level rise on earthquake and landslide triggering offshore the Alentejo margin (SW Iberia)

Science.gov (United States)

Neves, M. C.; Roque, C.; Luttrell, K. M.; Vázquez, J. T.; Alonso, B.

2016-12-01

Earthquakes and submarine landslides are recurrent and widespread manifestations of fault activity offshore SW Iberia. The present work tests the effects of sea-level rise on offshore fault systems using Coulomb stress change calculations across the Alentejo margin. Large-scale faults capable of generating large earthquakes and tsunamis in the region, especially NE-SW trending thrusts and WNW-ESE trending dextral strike-slip faults imaged at basement depths, are either blocked or unaffected by flexural effects related to sea-level changes. Large-magnitude earthquakes occurring along these structures may, therefore, be less frequent during periods of sea-level rise. In contrast, sea-level rise promotes shallow fault ruptures within the sedimentary sequence along the continental slope and upper rise within distances of failures may either increase (if triggered by shallow fault ruptures) or decrease (if triggered by deep fault ruptures) as a result of sea-level rise. Moreover, observations of slope failures affecting the area of the Sines contourite drift highlight the role of sediment properties as preconditioning factors in this region.

Earthquake hazard analysis for the different regions in and around Ağrı

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr [Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı (Turkey)

2016-04-18

We investigated earthquake hazard parameters for Eastern part of Turkey by determining the a and b parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship. For this purpose, study area is divided into seven different source zones based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The database used in this work was taken from different sources and catalogues such as TURKNET, International Seismological Centre (ISC), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for instrumental period. We calculated the a value, b value, which is the slope of the frequency–magnitude Gutenberg–Richter relationship, from the maximum likelihood method (ML). Also, we estimated the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence for an earthquake magnitude ≥ M during a time span of t-years. We used Zmap software to calculate these parameters. The lowest b value was calculated in Region 1 covered Cobandede Fault Zone. We obtain the highest a value in Region 2 covered Kagizman Fault Zone. This conclusion is strongly supported from the probability value, which shows the largest value (87%) for an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 6.0. The mean return period for such a magnitude is the lowest in this region (49-years). The most probable magnitude in the next 100 years was calculated and we determined the highest value around Cobandede Fault Zone. According to these parameters, Region 1 covered the Cobandede Fault Zone and is the most dangerous area around the Eastern part of Turkey.

Eurasian continental background and regionally polluted levels of ozone and CO observed in northeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Pochanart, Pakpong; Kato, Shungo; Katsuno, Takao; Akimoto, Hajime

The roles of Eurasian/Siberian continental air masses transport and the impact of large-scale East Asian anthropogenic emissions on tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide levels in northeast Asia were investigated. Seasonal behaviors of O 3 and CO mixing ratios in background continental (BC) air masses and regionally polluted continental (RPC) air masses were identified using trajectory analyses of Eurasian continental air masses and multi-year O 3 and CO data observed at Happo, a mountain site in Japan. RPC air masses show significantly higher O 3 and CO mixing ratios (annual average of 53.9±6.0 and 200±41 ppb, respectively) than BC air masses (44.4±3.6 and 167±17 ppb, respectively). Large scale anthropogenic emissions in East Asia are suggested to contribute about 10 ppb of photochemical O 3 and 32 ppb of CO at Happo. A comparative study of O 3 and CO observed at other sites, i.e., Oki Islands and Mondy in northeast Asia, showed similarities suggesting that O 3 mixing ratios in BC air masses at Happo could be representative for remote northeast Asia. However, CO mixing ratios in BC air masses at Happo are higher than the background level in Siberia. The overestimate is probably related to an increase in the CO baseline gradient between Siberia and the East Asia Pacific rim, and perturbations by sub-grid scale pollution transport and regional-scale boreal forest fires in Siberia when the background continental air masses are transported to Japan.

Temporal distribution of earthquakes using renewal process in the Dasht-e-Bayaz region

Science.gov (United States)

Mousavi, Mehdi; Salehi, Masoud

2018-01-01

Temporal distribution of earthquakes with M w > 6 in the Dasht-e-Bayaz region, eastern Iran has been investigated using time-dependent models. Based on these types of models, it is assumed that the times between consecutive large earthquakes follow a certain statistical distribution. For this purpose, four time-dependent inter-event distributions including the Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal, and the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) are used in this study and the associated parameters are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood estimation. The suitable distribution is selected based on logarithm likelihood function and Bayesian Information Criterion. The probability of the occurrence of the next large earthquake during a specified interval of time was calculated for each model. Then, the concept of conditional probability has been applied to forecast the next major ( M w > 6) earthquake in the site of our interest. The emphasis is on statistical methods which attempt to quantify the probability of an earthquake occurring within a specified time, space, and magnitude windows. According to obtained results, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with M w > 6 in the near future is significantly high.

Initiation of continental accretion: metamorphic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Clement, Conand; Frederic, Mouthereau; Gianreto, Manatschal; Adbeltif, Lahfid

2017-04-01

The physical processes involved at the beginning of the continental collision are largely unknown because they are transient and therefore hardly identifiable from the rock record. Despite the importance of key parameters for understanding mountain building processes, especially the formation of deep mountain roots and their impacts on earthquakes nucleation, rock/fluid transfers and oil/gas resources in the continental crust, observations from the earliest collision stages remain fragmentary. Here, we focus on the example of Taiwan, a young and active mountain belt where the transition from oceanic subduction, accretion of the first continental margin to mature collision can be followed in space and time. We present preliminary results and provide key questions regarding the reconstruction of time-pressure-temperature paths of rocks & fluids to allow discriminating between rift-related thermal/rheological inheritance and burial/heating phases during convergence. Previous studies have focused on peak temperatures analyzed by Raman Spectrometry of Carbonaceous Matter from the deeper structural layers exposed in the Central Range of Taiwan. In the pre-rift sediments, these studies reported a positive gradient from West to Est, and values from geothermal gradients (up to 60°C/km) known in the region, and higher temperature closer to the pre-rift units. Cross sections and maps with high resolution peak temperatures are in process as well as pressure estimations to determine how the sediments were metamorphosed. In addition to this work, we report a few inherited temperatures in the 390-570 °C range, indicating recycling of organic matter from metasediments that recorded HT events, likely originated from higher grade metamorphic units of mainland China, which have been eroded and deposited in the post-rift sediments.

Analysis of Earthquake Catalogs for CSEP Testing Region Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peresan, A.; Romashkova, L.; Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V.; Panza, G.F.

2010-07-01

A comprehensive analysis shows that the set of catalogs provided by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV, Italy) as the authoritative database for the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability - Testing Region Italy (CSEP-TRI), is hardly a unified one acceptable for the necessary tuning of models/algorithms, as well as for running rigorous prospective predictability tests at intermediate- or long-term scale. (author)

Kalman filter for statistical monitoring of forest cover across sub-continental regions

Science.gov (United States)

Raymond L. Czaplewski

1991-01-01

The Kalman filter is a multivariate generalization of the composite estimator which recursively combines a current direct estimate with a past estimate that is updated for expected change over time with a prediction model. The Kalman filter can estimate proportions of different cover types for sub-continental regions each year. A random sample of high-resolution...

Earthquake epicentroids in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Zhangjiakou region inversed by gravity variation data

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Jin-Han; Song, Sheng-He; Liu, Ke-Ren; Lu, Hong-Yan; Kuo, J. T.

2003-07-01

Gravity variation data observed in the process of seismogenesis and occurrences of earthquakes show that the location with the greatest gravity changes does not necessarily coincide with the epicenter. To explain this we defined the center of effective mass of stress volume as "hypocentroid", and the vertical projection of which on the earth’s surface as "epicentroid". Here we adopt three rotating models, including spheroid, ellipsoid and cylinder, to represent the region of an impending earthquake. Based on the models of gravity variations induced by uniform dilatancy, epicentroids associated with sixteen earthquakes with M>4.0 occurred in 1981 2000 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Zhangjiakou region are determined by means of a proposed least squares iterative inversion method. The results indicate that cylinder model is preferable to the other two, and epicentroids obtained by the cylinder model separate from the epicenters by a range of 0 40 km. Epicentroids are inevitably located within intact tectonic blocks, and usually cluster in groups; while the epicenters are generally located at the terminations of faults or at the intersections of faults. It seems that there exist earthquake-hatching areas in the block among faults. Earthquakes hatch in these areas, but occur around these areas, meanwhile the existence of faults may play an important role in controlling the processes.

Megathrust earthquakes in Central Chile: What is next after the Maule 2010 earthquake?

Science.gov (United States)

Madariaga, R.

2013-05-01

The 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake occurred in a well identified gap in the Chilean subduction zone. The event has now been studied in detail using both far-field, near field seismic and geodetic data, we will review this information gathered so far. The event broke a region that was much longer along strike than the gap left over from the 1835 Concepcion earthquake, sometimes called the Darwin earthquake because he was in the area when the earthquake occurred and made many observations. Recent studies of contemporary documents by Udias et al indicate that the area broken by the Maule earthquake in 2010 had previously broken by a similar earthquake in 1751, but several events in the magnitude 8 range occurred in the area principally in 1835 already mentioned and, more recently on 1 December 1928 to the North and on 21 May 1960 (1 1/2 days before the big Chilean earthquake of 1960). Currently the area of the 2010 earthquake and the region immediately to the North is undergoing a very large increase in seismicity with numerous clusters of seismicity that move along the plate interface. Examination of the seismicity of Chile of the 18th and 19th century show that the region immediately to the North of the 2010 earthquake broke in a very large megathrust event in July 1730. this is the largest known earthquake in central Chile. The region where this event occurred has broken in many occasions with M 8 range earthquakes in 1822, 1880, 1906, 1971 and 1985. Is it preparing for a new very large megathrust event? The 1906 earthquake of Mw 8.3 filled the central part of the gap but it has broken again on several occasions in 1971, 1973 and 1985. The main question is whether the 1906 earthquake relieved enough stresses from the 1730 rupture zone. Geodetic data shows that most of the region that broke in 1730 is currently almost fully locked from the northern end of the Maule earthquake at 34.5°S to 30°S, near the southern end of the of the Mw 8.5 Atacama earthquake of 11

Lower crustal earthquakes in the North China Basin and implications for crustal rheology

Science.gov (United States)

Yuen, D. A.; Dong, Y.; Ni, S.; LI, Z.

2017-12-01

The North China Basin is a Mesozoic-Cenozoic continental rift basin on the eastern North China Craton. It is the central region of craton destruction, also a very seismically active area suffering severely from devastating earthquakes, such as the 1966 Xingtai M7.2 earthquake, the 1967 Hejian M6.3 earthquake, and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquake. We found remarkable discrepancies of depth distribution among the three earthquakes, for instance, the Xingtai and Tangshan earthquakes are both upper-crustal earthquakes occurring between 9 and 15 km on depth, but the depth of the Hejian earthquake was reported of about 30 72 km, ranging from lowermost crust to upper mantle. In order to investigate the focal depth of earthquakes near Hejian area, we developed a method to resolve focal depth for local earthquakes occurring beneath sedimentary regions by P and S converted waves. With this method, we obtained well-resolved depths of 44 local events with magnitudes between M1.0 and M3.0 during 2008 to 2016 at the Hejian seismic zone, with a mean depth uncertainty of about 2 km. The depth distribution shows abundant earthquakes at depth of 20 km, with some events in the lower crust, but absence of seismicity deeper than 25 km. In particular, we aimed at deducing some constraints on the local crustal rheology from depth-frequency distribution. Therefore, we performed a comparison between the depth-frequency distribution and the crustal strength envelop, and found a good fit between the depth profile in the Hejian seismic zone and the yield strength envelop in the Baikal Rift Systems. As a conclusion, we infer that the seismogenic thickness is 25 km and the main deformation mechanism is brittle fracture in the North China Basin . And we made two hypotheses: (1) the rheological layering of dominant rheology in the North China Basin is similar to that of the Baikal Rift Systems, which can be explained with a quartz rheology at 0 10 km depth and a diabase rheology at 10 35 km

Source analysis using regional empirical Green's functions: The 2008 Wells, Nevada, earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, C.; Hartzell, S.

2009-01-01

We invert three-component, regional broadband waveforms recorded for the 21 February 2008 Wells, Nevada, earthquake using a finite-fault methodology that prescribes subfault responses using eight MW∼4 aftershocks as empirical Green's functions (EGFs) distributed within a 20-km by 21.6-km fault area. The inversion identifies a seismic moment of 6.2 x 1024 dyne-cm (5.8 MW) with slip concentrated in a compact 6.5-km by 4-km region updip from the hypocenter. The peak slip within this localized area is 88 cm and the stress drop is 72 bars, which is higher than expected for Basin and Range normal faults in the western United States. The EGF approach yields excellent fits to the complex regional waveforms, accounting for strong variations in wave propagation and site effects. This suggests that the procedure is useful for studying moderate-size earthquakes with limited teleseismic or strong-motion data and for examining uncertainties in slip models obtained using theoretical Green's functions.

Regional differences in the psychological recovery of Christchurch residents following the 2010/2011 earthquakes: a longitudinal study.

Science.gov (United States)

Greaves, Lara M; Milojev, Petar; Huang, Yanshu; Stronge, Samantha; Osborne, Danny; Bulbulia, Joseph; Grimshaw, Michael; Sibley, Chris G

2015-01-01

We examined changes in psychological distress experienced by residents of Christchurch following two catastrophic earthquakes in late 2010 and early 2011, using data from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (NZAVS), a national probability panel study of New Zealand adults. Analyses focused on the 267 participants (172 women, 95 men) who were living in central Christchurch in 2009 (i.e., before the Christchurch earthquakes), and who also provided complete responses to our yearly panel questionnaire conducted in late 2010 (largely between the two major earthquakes), late 2011, and late 2012. Levels of psychological distress were similar across the different regions of central Christchurch immediately following the September 2010 earthquake, and remained comparable across regions in 2011. By late 2012, however, average levels of psychological distress in the regions had diverged as a function of the amount of property damage experienced within each given region. Specifically, participants in the least damaged region (i.e., the Fendalton-Waimairi and Riccarton-Wigram wards) experienced greater drops in psychological distress than did those in the moderately damaged region (i.e., across the Spreydon-Heathcote and Hagley-Ferrymead wards). However, the level of psychological distress reported by participants in the most damaged region (i.e., across Shirley-Papanui and Burwood-Pegasus) were not significantly different to those in the least damaged region of central Christchurch. These findings suggest that different patterns of psychological recovery emerged across the different regions of Christchurch, with the moderately damaged region faring the worst, but only after the initial shock of the destruction had passed.

The smart cluster method. Adaptive earthquake cluster identification and analysis in strong seismic regions

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, Andreas M.; Daniell, James E.; Wenzel, Friedemann

2017-07-01

Earthquake clustering is an essential part of almost any statistical analysis of spatial and temporal properties of seismic activity. The nature of earthquake clusters and subsequent declustering of earthquake catalogues plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude-dependent earthquake return period and its respective spatial variation for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. This study introduces the Smart Cluster Method (SCM), a new methodology to identify earthquake clusters, which uses an adaptive point process for spatio-temporal cluster identification. It utilises the magnitude-dependent spatio-temporal earthquake density to adjust the search properties, subsequently analyses the identified clusters to determine directional variation and adjusts its search space with respect to directional properties. In the case of rapid subsequent ruptures like the 1992 Landers sequence or the 2010-2011 Darfield-Christchurch sequence, a reclassification procedure is applied to disassemble subsequent ruptures using near-field searches, nearest neighbour classification and temporal splitting. The method is capable of identifying and classifying earthquake clusters in space and time. It has been tested and validated using earthquake data from California and New Zealand. A total of more than 1500 clusters have been found in both regions since 1980 with M m i n = 2.0. Utilising the knowledge of cluster classification, the method has been adjusted to provide an earthquake declustering algorithm, which has been compared to existing methods. Its performance is comparable to established methodologies. The analysis of earthquake clustering statistics lead to various new and updated correlation functions, e.g. for ratios between mainshock and strongest aftershock and general aftershock activity metrics.

e-Science on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation by EUAsiaGrid

Science.gov (United States)

Yen, Eric; Lin, Simon; Chen, Hsin-Yen; Chao, Li; Huang, Bor-Shoh; Liang, Wen-Tzong

2010-05-01

Although earthquake is not predictable at this moment, with the aid of accurate seismic wave propagation analysis, we could simulate the potential hazards at all distances from possible fault sources by understanding the source rupture process during large earthquakes. With the integration of strong ground-motion sensor network, earthquake data center and seismic wave propagation analysis over gLite e-Science Infrastructure, we could explore much better knowledge on the impact and vulnerability of potential earthquake hazards. On the other hand, this application also demonstrated the e-Science way to investigate unknown earth structure. Regional integration of earthquake sensor networks could aid in fast event reporting and accurate event data collection. Federation of earthquake data center entails consolidation and sharing of seismology and geology knowledge. Capability building of seismic wave propagation analysis implies the predictability of potential hazard impacts. With gLite infrastructure and EUAsiaGrid collaboration framework, earth scientists from Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippine, Thailand are working together to alleviate potential seismic threats by making use of Grid technologies and also to support seismology researches by e-Science. A cross continental e-infrastructure, based on EGEE and EUAsiaGrid, is established for seismic wave forward simulation and risk estimation. Both the computing challenge on seismic wave analysis among 5 European and Asian partners, and the data challenge for data center federation had been exercised and verified. Seismogram-on-Demand service is also developed for the automatic generation of seismogram on any sensor point to a specific epicenter. To ease the access to all the services based on users workflow and retain the maximal flexibility, a Seismology Science Gateway integating data, computation, workflow, services and user communities would be implemented based on typical use cases. In the future, extension of the

Earthquake Hazard Analysis Methods: A Review

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.

2018-02-01

One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.

Evaluating earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles region; an earth-science perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Ziony, Joseph I.

1985-01-01

Potentially destructive earthquakes are inevitable in the Los Angeles region of California, but hazards prediction can provide a basis for reducing damage and loss. This volume identifies the principal geologically controlled earthquake hazards of the region (surface faulting, strong shaking, ground failure, and tsunamis), summarizes methods for characterizing their extent and severity, and suggests opportunities for their reduction. Two systems of active faults generate earthquakes in the Los Angeles region: northwest-trending, chiefly horizontal-slip faults, such as the San Andreas, and west-trending, chiefly vertical-slip faults, such as those of the Transverse Ranges. Faults in these two systems have produced more than 40 damaging earthquakes since 1800. Ninety-five faults have slipped in late Quaternary time (approximately the past 750,000 yr) and are judged capable of generating future moderate to large earthquakes and displacing the ground surface. Average rates of late Quaternary slip or separation along these faults provide an index of their relative activity. The San Andreas and San Jacinto faults have slip rates measured in tens of millimeters per year, but most other faults have rates of about 1 mm/yr or less. Intermediate rates of as much as 6 mm/yr characterize a belt of Transverse Ranges faults that extends from near Santa Barbara to near San Bernardino. The dimensions of late Quaternary faults provide a basis for estimating the maximum sizes of likely future earthquakes in the Los Angeles region: moment magnitude .(M) 8 for the San Andreas, M 7 for the other northwest-trending elements of that fault system, and M 7.5 for the Transverse Ranges faults. Geologic and seismologic evidence along these faults, however, suggests that, for planning and designing noncritical facilities, appropriate sizes would be M 8 for the San Andreas, M 7 for the San Jacinto, M 6.5 for other northwest-trending faults, and M 6.5 to 7 for the Transverse Ranges faults. The

Physics-based and statistical earthquake forecasting in a continental rift zone: the case study of Corinth Gulf (Greece)

Science.gov (United States)

Segou, Margarita

2016-01-01

I perform a retrospective forecast experiment in the most rapid extensive continental rift worldwide, the western Corinth Gulf (wCG, Greece), aiming to predict shallow seismicity (depth statistics, four physics-based (CRS) models, combining static stress change estimations and the rate-and-state laboratory law and one hybrid model. For the latter models, I incorporate the stress changes imparted from 31 earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 4.5 at the extended area of wCG. Special attention is given on the 3-D representation of active faults, acting as potential receiver planes for the estimation of static stress changes. I use reference seismicity between 1990 and 1995, corresponding to the learning phase of physics-based models, and I evaluate the forecasts for six months following the 1995 M = 6.4 Aigio earthquake using log-likelihood performance metrics. For the ETAS realizations, I use seismic events with magnitude M ≥ 2.5 within daily update intervals to enhance their predictive power. For assessing the role of background seismicity, I implement a stochastic reconstruction (aka declustering) aiming to answer whether M > 4.5 earthquakes correspond to spontaneous events and identify, if possible, different triggering characteristics between aftershock sequences and swarm-type seismicity periods. I find that: (1) ETAS models outperform CRS models in most time intervals achieving very low rejection ratio RN = 6 per cent, when I test their efficiency to forecast the total number of events inside the study area, (2) the best rejection ratio for CRS models reaches RN = 17 per cent, when I use varying target depths and receiver plane geometry, (3) 75 per cent of the 1995 Aigio aftershocks that occurred within the first month can be explained by static stress changes, (4) highly variable performance on behalf of both statistical and physical models is suggested by large confidence intervals of information gain per earthquake and (5) generic ETAS models can adequately

Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, G.M.; Boore, D.M.

2003-01-01

Ground-motion relations for earthquakes that occur in subduction zones are an important input to seismic-hazard analyses in many parts of the world. In the Cascadia region (Washington, Oregon, northern California, and British Columbia), for example, there is a significant hazard from megathrust earthquakes along the subduction interface and from large events within the subducting slab. These hazards are in addition to the hazard from shallow earthquakes in the overlying crust. We have compiled a response spectra database from thousands of strong-motion recordings from events of moment magnitude (M) 5-8.3 occurring in subduction zones around the world, including both interface and in-slab events. The 2001 M 6.8 Nisqually and 1999 M 5.9 Satsop earthquakes are included in the database, as are many records from subduction zones in Japan (Kyoshin-Net data), Mexico (Guerrero data), and Central America. The size of the database is four times larger than that available for previous empirical regressions to determine ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes. The large dataset enables improved determination of attenuation parameters and magnitude scaling, for both interface and in-slab events. Soil response parameters are also better determined by the data. We use the database to develop global ground-motion relations for interface and in-slab earthquakes, using a maximum likelihood regression method. We analyze regional variability of ground-motion amplitudes across the global database and find that there are significant regional differences. In particular, amplitudes in Cascadia differ by more than a factor of 2 from those in Japan for the same magnitude, distance, event type, and National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) soil class. This is believed to be due to regional differences in the depth of the soil profile, which are not captured by the NEHRP site classification scheme. Regional correction factors to account for these differences are

Geochemical variation of groundwater in the Abruzzi region: earthquakes related signals?

Science.gov (United States)

Cardellini, C.; Chiodini, G.; Caliro, S.; Frondini, F.; Avino, R.; Minopoli, C.; Morgantini, N.

2009-12-01

The presence of a deep and inorganic source of CO2 has been recently recognized in Italy on the basis of the deeply derived carbon dissolved in the groundwater. In particular, the regional map of CO2 Earth degassing shows that two large degassing structures affect the Tyrrhenian side of the Italian peninsula. The northern degassing structure (TRDS, Tuscan Roman degassing structure) includes Tuscany, Latium and part of Umbria regions (~30000 km2) and releases > 6.1 Mt/y of deeply derived CO2. The southern degassing structure (CDS, Campanian degassing structure) affects the Campania region (~10000 km2) and releases > 3.1 Mt/y of deeply derived CO2. The total CO2 released by TRDS and CDS (> 9.2 Mt/y) is globally significant, being ~10% of the estimated present-day total CO2 discharge from sub aerial volcanoes of the Earth. The comparison between the map of CO2 Earth degassing and of the location of the Italian earthquakes highlights that the anomalous CO2 flux suddenly disappears in the Apennine in correspondence of a narrow band where most of the seismicity concentrates. A previous conceptual model proposed that in this area, at the eastern borders of TRDS and CDS plumes, the CO2 from the mantle wedge intrudes the crust and accumulate in structural traps generating over-pressurized reservoirs. These CO2 over-pressurized levels can play a major role in triggering the Apennine earthquakes, by reducing fault strength and potentially controlling the nucleation, arrest, and recurrence of both micro and major (M>5) earthquakes. The 2009 Abruzzo earthquakes, like previous seismic crises in the Northern Apennine, occurred at the border of the TRDS, suggesting also in this case a possible role played by deeply derived fluids in the earthquake generation. In order to investigate this process, detailed hydro-geochemical campaigns started immediately after the main shock of the 6th of April 2009. The surveys include the main springs of the area which were previously studied in

Revolutionising engineering education in the Middle East region to promote earthquake-disaster mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Baytiyeh, Hoda; Naja, Mohamad K.

2014-09-01

Due to the high market demands for professional engineers in the Arab oil-producing countries, the appetite of Middle Eastern students for high-paying jobs and challenging careers in engineering has sharply increased. As a result, engineering programmes are providing opportunities for more students to enrol on engineering courses through lenient admission policies that do not compromise academic standards. This strategy has generated an influx of students who must be carefully educated to enhance their professional knowledge and social capital to assist in future earthquake-disaster risk-reduction efforts. However, the majority of Middle Eastern engineering students are unaware of the valuable acquired engineering skills and knowledge in building the resilience of their communities to earthquake disasters. As the majority of the countries in the Middle East are exposed to seismic hazards and are vulnerable to destructive earthquakes, engineers have become indispensable assets and the first line of defence against earthquake threats. This article highlights the contributions of some of the engineering innovations in advancing technologies and techniques for effective disaster mitigation and it calls for the incorporation of earthquake-disaster-mitigation education into academic engineering programmes in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

On the relationship between structure, morphology and large coseismic slip: A case study of the Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile 2010 earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Contreras-Reyes, Eduardo; Maksymowicz, Andrei; Lange, Dietrich; Grevemeyer, Ingo; Muñoz-Linford, Pamela; Moscoso, Eduardo

2017-11-01

Subduction megathrust earthquakes show complex rupture behaviour and large lateral variations of slip. However, the factors controlling seismic slip are still under debate. Here, we present 2-D velocity-depth tomographic models across four trench-perpendicular wide angle seismic profiles complemented with high resolution bathymetric data in the area of maximum coseismic slip of the Mw 8.8 Maule 2010 megathrust earthquake (central Chile, 34°-36°S). Results show an abrupt lateral velocity gradient in the trench-perpendicular direction (from 5.0 to 6.0 km/s) interpreted as the contact between the accretionary prism and continental framework rock whose superficial expression spatially correlates with the slope-shelf break. The accretionary prism is composed of two bodies: (1) an outer accretionary wedge (5-10 km wide) characterized by low seismic velocities of 1.8-3.0 km/s interpreted as an outer frontal prism of poorly compacted and hydrated sediment, and (2) the middle wedge (∼50 km wide) with velocities of 3.0-5.0 km/s interpreted as a middle prism composed by compacted and lithified sediment. In addition, the maximum average coseismic slip of the 2010 megathrust event is fairly coincident with the region where the accretionary prism and continental slope are widest (50-60 km wide), and the continental slope angle is low (event, published differential multibeam bathymetric data confirms that coseismic slip must have propagated up to ∼6 km landwards of the deformation front and hence practically the entire base of the middle prism. Sediment dewatering and compaction processes might explain the competent rheology of the middle prism allowing shallow earthquake rupture. In contrast, the outer frontal prism made of poorly consolidated sediment has impeded the rupture up to the deformation front as high resolution seismic reflection and multibeam bathymetric data have not showed evidence for new deformation in the trench region.

Resolution of non-double-couple components in the seismic moment tensor using regional networks-II: application to aftershocks of the 1999 M-w 7.4 Izmit earthquake

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Stierle, E.; Bohnhoff, M.; Vavryčuk, Václav

2014-01-01

Roč. 196, č. 3 (2014), s. 1878-1888 ISSN 0956-540X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP210/12/1491 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : earthquake source observations * seismicity and tectonics * continental tectonics: extensional Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.724, year: 2013

The earthquake problem in engineering design: generating earthquake design basis information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, R.D.

1987-01-01

Designing earthquake resistant structures requires certain design inputs specific to the seismotectonic status of the region, in which a critical facility is to be located. Generating these inputs requires collection of earthquake related information using present day techniques in seismology and geology, and processing the collected information to integrate it to arrive at a consolidated picture of the seismotectonics of the region. The earthquake problem in engineering design has been outlined in the context of a seismic design of nuclear power plants vis a vis current state of the art techniques. The extent to which the accepted procedures of assessing seismic risk in the region and generating the design inputs have been adherred to determine to a great extent the safety of the structures against future earthquakes. The document is a step towards developing an aproach for generating these inputs, which form the earthquake design basis. (author)

Earthquake Clusters and Spatio-temporal Migration of earthquakes in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau: a Finite Element Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Y.; Luo, G.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in a region is usually characterized by earthquake clusters and earthquake migration along its major fault zones. However, we do not fully understand why and how earthquake clusters and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes occur. The northeastern Tibetan Plateau is a good example for us to investigate these problems. In this study, we construct and use a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes along major fault zones in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We calculate stress evolution and fault interactions, and explore effects of topographic loading and viscosity of middle-lower crust and upper mantle on model results. Model results show that earthquakes and fault interactions increase Coulomb stress on the neighboring faults or segments, accelerating the future earthquakes in this region. Thus, earthquakes occur sequentially in a short time, leading to regional earthquake clusters. Through long-term evolution, stresses on some seismogenic faults, which are far apart, may almost simultaneously reach the critical state of fault failure, probably also leading to regional earthquake clusters and earthquake migration. Based on our model synthetic seismic catalog and paleoseismic data, we analyze probability of earthquake migration between major faults in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We find that following the 1920 M 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake and the 1927 M 8.0 Gulang earthquake, the next big event (M≥7) in northeastern Tibetan Plateau would be most likely to occur on the Haiyuan fault.

Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

Science.gov (United States)

Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

2017-12-01

The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

Segmented seismicity of the Mw 6.2 Baladeh earthquake sequence (Alborz mountains, Iran) revealed from regional moment tensors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Donner, Stefanie; Rössler, Dirk; Krüger, Frank

2013-01-01

The M w 6.2 Baladeh earthquake occurred on 28 May 2004 in the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. This earthquake was the first strong shock in this intracontinental orogen for which digital regional broadband data are available. The Baladeh event provides a rare opportunity to study fault geometry...... model, regional waveform data of the mainshock and larger aftershocks (M w  ≥3.3) were inverted for moment tensors. For the Baladeh mainshock, this included inversion for kinematic parameters. All analysed earthquakes show dominant thrust mechanisms at depths between 14 and 26 km, with NW–SE striking...

Earthquake source imaging by high-resolution array analysis at regional distances: the 2010 M7 Haiti earthquake as seen by the Venezuela National Seismic Network

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, L.; Ampuero, J. P.; Rendon, H.

2010-12-01

Back projection of teleseismic waves based on array processing has become a popular technique for earthquake source imaging,in particular to track the areas of the source that generate the strongest high frequency radiation. The technique has been previously applied to study the rupture process of the Sumatra earthquake and the supershear rupture of the Kunlun earthquakes. Here we attempt to image the Haiti earthquake using the data recorded by Venezuela National Seismic Network (VNSN). The network is composed of 22 broad-band stations with an East-West oriented geometry, and is located approximately 10 degrees away from Haiti in the perpendicular direction to the Enriquillo fault strike. This is the first opportunity to exploit the privileged position of the VNSN to study large earthquake ruptures in the Caribbean region. This is also a great opportunity to explore the back projection scheme of the crustal Pn phase at regional distances,which provides unique complementary insights to the teleseismic source inversions. The challenge in the analysis of the 2010 M7.0 Haiti earthquake is its very compact source region, possibly shorter than 30km, which is below the resolution limit of standard back projection techniques based on beamforming. Results of back projection analysis using the teleseismic USarray data reveal little details of the rupture process. To overcome the classical resolution limit we explored the Multiple Signal Classification method (MUSIC), a high-resolution array processing technique based on the signal-noise orthognality in the eigen space of the data covariance, which achieves both enhanced resolution and better ability to resolve closely spaced sources. We experiment with various synthetic earthquake scenarios to test the resolution. We find that MUSIC provides at least 3 times higher resolution than beamforming. We also study the inherent bias due to the interferences of coherent Green’s functions, which leads to a potential quantification

Stress Interactions Between the 1976 Magnitude 7.8 Tangshan Earthquake and Adjacent Fault Systems in Northern China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Z.; Lin, J.; Chen, Y. J.

2004-12-01

advancing our understanding of the fundamental characteristics of earthquakes in regions of diffuse continental deformation.

Landslides triggered by the 1946 Ancash earthquake, Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Kampherm, T. S.; Evans, S. G.; Valderrama Murillo, P.

2009-04-01

The 1946 M7.3 Ancash Earthquake triggered a large number of landslides in an epicentral area that straddled the Continental Divide of South America in the Andes of Peru. A small number of landslides were described in reconnaissance reports by E. Silgado and Arnold Heim published shortly after the earthquake, but further details of the landslides triggered by the earthquake have not been reported since. Utilising field traverses, aerial photograph interpretation and GIS, our study mapped 45 landslides inferred to have been triggered by the event. 83% were rock avalanches involving Cretaceous limestones interbedded with shales. The five largest rock/debris avalanches occurred at Rio Llama (est. vol. 37 M m3), Suytucocha (est. vol., 13.5 Mm3), Quiches (est. vol. 10.5 Mm3 ), Pelagatos (est. vol. 8 Mm3), and Shundoy (est. vol. 8 Mm3). The Suytucocha, Quiches, and Pelagatos landslides were reported by Silgado and Heim. Rock slope failure was most common on slopes with a southwest aspect, an orientation corresponding to the regional dip direction of major planar structures in the Andean foreland belt (bedding planes and thrust faults). In valleys oriented transverse to the NW-SE structural grain of the epicentral area, south-westerly dipping bedding planes combined with orthogonal joint sets to form numerous wedge failures. Many initial rock slope failures were transformed into rock/debris avalanches by the entrainment of colluvium in their path. At Acobamba, a rock avalanche that transformed into a debris avalanche (est. vol. 4.3 Mm3) overwhelmed a village resulting in the deaths of 217 people. The cumulative volume-frequency plot shows a strong power law relation below a marked rollover, similar in form to that derived for landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge Earthquake. The total volume of the 45 landslides is approximately 93 Mm3. The data point for the Ancash Earthquake plots near the regression line calculated by Keefer (1994), and modified by Malamud et al

The rupture process of the Manjil, Iran earthquake of 20 june 1990 and implications for intraplate strike-slip earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Choy, G.L.; Zednik, J.

1997-01-01

of activity the aftershock zone expands and appears to cluster about the geomorphic and geologic features several tens of kilometres from the rupture zone. The activity is interpreted as a regional response to quasistatic stress migration along zones of tectonic weakness. The radiated energy of the main shock and the estimate of seismic moment yields an apparent stress of 20 bars. High apparent stress may be typical of strike slip earthquakes occurring in intracontinental environments undergoing continental collision.

Geotechnical aspects in the epicentral region of the 2011, Mw5.8 Mineral, Virginia earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Russell A.; Lasley, Samuel; Carter, Mark W.; Munsey, Jeffrey W.; Maurer, Brett W.; Tuttle, Martitia P.

2015-01-01

A reconnaissance team documented the geotechnical and geological aspects in the epicentral region of the Mw (moment magnitude) 5.8 Mineral, Virginia (USA), earthquake of 23 August 2011. Tectonically and seismically induced ground deformations, evidence of liquefaction, rock slides, river bank slumps, ground subsidence, performance of earthen dams, damage to public infrastructure and lifelines, and other effects of the earthquake were documented. This moderate earthquake provided the rare opportunity to collect data to help assess current geoengineering practices in the region, as well as to assess seismic performance of the aging infrastructure in the region. Ground failures included two marginal liquefaction sites, a river bank slump, four minor rockfalls, and a ~4-m-wide, ~12-m-long, ~0.3-m-deep subsidence on a residential property. Damage to lifelines included subsidence of the approaches for a bridge and a water main break to a heavily corroded, 5-cm-diameter valve in Mineral, Virginia. Observed damage to dams, landfills, and public-use properties included a small, shallow slide in the temporary (“working”) clay cap of the county landfill, damage to two earthen dams (one in the epicentral region and one further away near Bedford, Virginia), and substantial structural damage to two public school buildings.

Sun, Moon and Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kolvankar, V. G.

2013-12-01

During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas [typically 1000km X1000km] of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun's position in terms of universal time [GMT] shows links to the sum of EMD [longitude of earthquake location - longitude of Moon's foot print on earth] and SEM [Sun-Earth-Moon angle]. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that over 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun's position [GMT] and [EMD+SEM]. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the factor [EMD+SEM] changes through 360 degree, and plotting these two variables for earthquakes from different small regions reveals a simple 45 degree straight-line relationship between them. This relationship was tested for all earthquakes and earthquake sequences for magnitude 2.0 and above. This study conclusively proves how Sun and the Moon govern all earthquakes. Fig. 12 [A+B]. The left-hand figure provides a 24-hour plot for forty consecutive days including the main event (00:58:23 on 26.12.2004, Lat.+3.30, Long+95.980, Mb 9.0, EQ count 376). The right-hand figure provides an earthquake plot for (EMD+SEM) vs GMT timings for the same data. All the 376 events including the main event faithfully follow the straight-line curve.

Modeling of a historical earthquake in Erzincan, Turkey (Ms 7.8, in 1939) using regional seismological information obtained from a recent event

Science.gov (United States)

Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh; Askan, Aysegul

2018-04-01

Located within a basin structure, at the conjunction of North East Anatolian, North Anatolian and Ovacik Faults, Erzincan city center (Turkey) is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. Combination of the seismotectonic and geological settings of the region has resulted in series of significant seismic activities including the 1939 (Ms 7.8) as well as the 1992 (Mw = 6.6) earthquakes. The devastative 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms. Thus, a limited number of studies exist on that earthquake. However, the 1992 event, despite the sparse local network at that time, has been studied extensively. This study aims to simulate the 1939 Erzincan earthquake using available regional seismic and geological parameters. Despite several uncertainties involved, such an effort to quantitatively model the 1939 earthquake is promising, given the historical reports of extensive damage and fatalities in the area. The results of this study are expressed in terms of anticipated acceleration time histories at certain locations, spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters and felt intensity maps in the region. Simulated motions are first compared against empirical ground motion prediction equations derived with both local and global datasets. Next, anticipated intensity maps of the 1939 earthquake are obtained using local correlations between peak ground motion parameters and felt intensity values. Comparisons of the estimated intensity distributions with the corresponding observed intensities indicate a reasonable modeling of the 1939 earthquake.

Summary of the GK15 ground‐motion prediction equation for horizontal PGA and 5% damped PSA from shallow crustal continental earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Graizer, Vladimir;; Kalkan, Erol

2016-01-01

We present a revised ground‐motion prediction equation (GMPE) for computing medians and standard deviations of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (PSA) response ordinates of the horizontal component of randomly oriented ground motions to be used for seismic‐hazard analyses and engineering applications. This GMPE is derived from the expanded Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)‐West 1 database (see Data and Resources; Chiou et al., 2008). The revised model includes an anelastic attenuation term as a function of quality factor (Q0) to capture regional differences in far‐source (beyond 150 km) attenuation, and a new frequency‐dependent sedimentary‐basin scaling term as a function of depth to the 1.5  km/s shear‐wave velocity isosurface to improve ground‐motion predictions at sites located on deep sedimentary basins. The new Graizer–Kalkan 2015 (GK15) model, developed to be simple, is applicable for the western United States and other similar shallow crustal continental regions in active tectonic environments for earthquakes with moment magnitudes (M) 5.0–8.0, distances 0–250 km, average shear‐wave velocities in the upper 30 m (VS30) 200–1300  m/s, and spectral periods (T) 0.01–5 s. Our aleatory variability model captures interevent (between‐event) variability, which decreases with magnitude and increases with distance. The mixed‐effect residuals analysis reveals that the GK15 has no trend with respect to the independent predictor parameters. Compared to our 2007–2009 GMPE, the PGA values are very similar, whereas spectral ordinates predicted are larger at T<0.2  s and they are smaller at longer periods.

Lake nutrient stoichiometry is less predictable than nutrient concentrations at regional and sub-continental scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Sarah M; Oliver, Samantha K; Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Stanley, Emily H; Jones, John R; Wagner, Tyler; Soranno, Patricia A

2017-07-01

Production in many ecosystems is co-limited by multiple elements. While a known suite of drivers associated with nutrient sources, nutrient transport, and internal processing controls concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, much less is known about whether the drivers of single nutrient concentrations can also explain spatial or temporal variation in lake N:P stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry might be more complex than predicting concentrations of individual elements because some drivers have similar relationships with N and P, leading to a weak relationship with their ratio. Further, the dominant controls on elemental concentrations likely vary across regions, resulting in context dependent relationships between drivers, lake nutrients and their ratios. Here, we examine whether known drivers of N and P concentrations can explain variation in N:P stoichiometry, and whether explaining variation in stoichiometry differs across regions. We examined drivers of N:P in ~2,700 lakes at a sub-continental scale and two large regions nested within the sub-continental study area that have contrasting ecological context, including differences in the dominant type of land cover (agriculture vs. forest). At the sub-continental scale, lake nutrient concentrations were correlated with nutrient loading and lake internal processing, but stoichiometry was only weakly correlated to drivers of lake nutrients. At the regional scale, drivers that explained variation in nutrients and stoichiometry differed between regions. In the Midwestern U.S. region, dominated by agricultural land use, lake depth and the percentage of row crop agriculture were strong predictors of stoichiometry because only phosphorus was related to lake depth and only nitrogen was related to the percentage of row crop agriculture. In contrast, all drivers were related to N and P in similar ways in the Northeastern U.S. region, leading to weak relationships between drivers and stoichiometry

Regional tectonic trends on the inner continental shelf off Konkan and central west coast of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Ramana, M.V.

Satellite imagery and offshore magnetic data were analysed to correlate regional tectonic elements on the inner continental shelf off Konkan and the adjacent Deccan plateau. Three statistically important lineament trends N-S, WNW-ESE and ENE...

Probabilistic Models For Earthquakes With Large Return Periods In Himalaya Region

Science.gov (United States)

Chaudhary, Chhavi; Sharma, Mukat Lal

2017-12-01

Determination of the frequency of large earthquakes is of paramount importance for seismic risk assessment as large events contribute to significant fraction of the total deformation and these long return period events with low probability of occurrence are not easily captured by classical distributions. Generally, with a small catalogue these larger events follow different distribution function from the smaller and intermediate events. It is thus of special importance to use statistical methods that analyse as closely as possible the range of its extreme values or the tail of the distributions in addition to the main distributions. The generalised Pareto distribution family is widely used for modelling the events which are crossing a specified threshold value. The Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto are the special cases of the generalised Pareto family. In this work, the probability of earthquake occurrence has been estimated using the Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto distributions. As a case study, the Himalayas whose orogeny lies in generation of large earthquakes and which is one of the most active zones of the world, has been considered. The whole Himalayan region has been divided into five seismic source zones according to seismotectonic and clustering of events. Estimated probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes have also been compared with the modified Gutenberg-Richter distribution and the characteristics recurrence distribution. The statistical analysis reveals that the Tapered Pareto distribution better describes seismicity for the seismic source zones in comparison to other distributions considered in the present study.

Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

Science.gov (United States)

Zarola, Amit; Sil, Arjun

2018-04-01

This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737-2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

Earthquake Catalogue of the Caucasus

Science.gov (United States)

Godoladze, T.; Gok, R.; Tvaradze, N.; Tumanova, N.; Gunia, I.; Onur, T.

2016-12-01

The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); and the Alaverdi earthquake of 1742 (Ms˜6.8, Io=9). Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088 (Ms˜6.5, Io=9) and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899 (Ms˜6.3, Io =8-9). Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; Racha earthquake of 1991 (Ms=7.0), is the largest event ever recorded in the region; Barisakho earthquake of 1992 (M=6.5); Spitak earthquake of 1988 (Ms=6.9, 100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of the various national networks (Georgia (˜25 stations), Azerbaijan (˜35 stations), Armenia (˜14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. In order to improve seismic data quality a catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences/NSMC, Ilia State University) in the framework of regional joint project (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, USA) "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in the Caucasus. The catalogue consists of more then 80,000 events. First arrivals of each earthquake of Mw>=4.0 have been carefully examined. To reduce calculation errors, we corrected arrivals from the seismic records. We improved locations of the events and recalculate Moment magnitudes in order to obtain unified magnitude

My Road to Transform Faulting 1963; Long-Term Precursors to Recent Great Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Sykes, L. R.

2017-12-01

My road to plate tectonics started serendipitously in 1963 in a remote area of the southeast Pacific when I was studying the propagation of short-period seismic surface waves for my PhD. The earthquakes I used as sources were poorly located. I discovered that my relocated epicenters followed the crest of the East Pacific Rise but then suddenly took a sharp turn to the east at what I interpreted to be a major fracture zone 1000 km long before turning again to the north near 55 degrees south. I noted that earthquakes along that zone only occurred between the two ridge crests, an observation Tuzo Wilson used to develop his hypothesis of transform faulting. Finding a great, unknown fracture zone led me to conclude that work on similar faults that intersect the Mid-Oceanic Ridge System was more important than my study of surface waves. I found similar great faults over the next two years and obtained refined locations of earthquakes along several island arcs. When I was in Fiji and Tonga during 1965 studying deep earthquakes, James Dorman wrote to me about Wilson's paper and I thought about testing his hypothesis. I started work on it the spring of 1966 immediately after I learned about the symmetrical "magic magnetic anomaly profile" across the East Pacific Rise of Pitman and Heirtzler. I quickly obtained earthquake mechanisms that verified the transform hypothesis and its related concepts of seafloor spreading and continental drift. As an undergraduate in the late 1950s, my mentor told me that respectable young earth scientists should not work on vague and false mobilistic concepts like continental drift since continents cannot plow through strong oceanic crust. Hence, until spring 1966, I did not take continental drift seriously. The second part of my presentation involves new evidence from seismology and GPS of what appear to be long-term precursors to a number of great earthquakes of the past decade.

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Qin Chengzhi; Zhou Chenghu; Pei Tao; Li Quanlin

2004-01-01

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance ( ≤ 100km and on the confines of 300 ～ 700km), and a dominant time interval ( ≤ 1 a and on the confines of 3 ～ 4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.

The 2016 south Alboran earthquake (Mw = 6.4): A reactivation of the Ibero-Maghrebian region?

Science.gov (United States)

Buforn, E.; Pro, C.; Sanz de Galdeano, C.; Cantavella, J. V.; Cesca, S.; Caldeira, B.; Udías, A.; Mattesini, M.

2017-08-01

On 25 January 2016, an earthquake of magnitude Mw = 6.4 occurred at the southern part of the Alboran Sea, between southern Spain and northern Morocco. This shock was preceded by a foreshock (Mw = 5.1) and followed by a long aftershock sequence. Focal mechanism of main shock has been estimated from slip inversion of body waves at teleseismic distances. Solution corresponds to left-lateral strike-slip motion, showing a complex bilateral rupture, formed by two sub-events, with most energy propagating along a plane oriented N30°E plane dipping to the NW. Relocation of larger events of the aftershock series, show two alignments of epicentres in NE-SW and NNE-SSW direction that intersect at the epicentre of the main shock. We have estimated the focal mechanisms of the largest aftershocks from moment tensor inversion at regional distances. We have obtained two families of focal mechanisms corresponding to strike slip for the NNE-SSW alignment and thrusting motion for the NE-SW alignment. Among the faults present in the area the Al Idrisi fault (or fault zone) may be a good candidate for the source of this earthquake. The study of Coulomb Failure Stress shows that it is possible that the 2016 earthquake was triggered by the previous nearby earthquakes of 1994 (Mw = 5.8) and 2004 (Mw = 6.3). The possible seismic reactivation of the central part of the Ibero-Maghrebian region is an open question, but it is clear that the occurrence of the 2016 earthquake confirms that from 1994 the seismicity of central part of IMR is increasing and that focal mechanism of largest earthquakes in this central part correspond to complex ruptures (or zone of fault).

The Effect of Ignoring Earth Curvature on Near-Regional Traveltime Tomography and Earthquake Hypocentral Determination

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Chao-ying; Li, Xing-wang; Wang, Di; Greenhalgh, Stewart

2017-12-01

Earthquake hypocenter determination and traveltime tomography with local earthquake data are normally conducted using a Cartesian coordinate system and assuming a flat Earth model, but for regional and teleseismic data Earth curvature is incorporated and a spherical coordinate system employed. However, when the study region is from the local to near-regional scale (1°-4°), it is unclear what coordinate system to use and what kind of incorrect anomalies or location errors might arise when using the Cartesian coordinate frame. In this paper we investigate in a quantitative sense through two near-regional crustal models and five different inversion methods, the hypocenter errors, reflector perturbation and incorrect velocity anomalies that can arise due to the selection of the wrong coordinate system and inversion method. The simulated inversion results show that the computed traveltime errors are larger than 0.1 s when the epicentral distance exceeds 150 km, and increases linearly with increasing epicentral distance. Such predicted traveltime errors will result in different patterns of incorrect velocity anomalous structures, a perturbed Moho interface for traveltime tomography and source position which deviate for earthquake locations. The maximum magnitude of a velocity image artifact is larger than 1.0% for an epicentral distance of less than 500 km and is up to 0.9% for epicentral distances of less than 300 km. The earthquake source location error is more than 2.0 km for epicentral distances less than 500 km and is up to 1.5 km for epicentral distances less than 300 km. The Moho depth can be in error by up 1.0 km for epicentral distances of less than 500 km but is less than 0.5 km at distances below 300 km. We suggest that spherical coordinate geometry (or time correction) be used whenever there are ray paths at epicentral distances in excess of 150 km.

The ordered network structure of M {>=} 6 strong earthquakes and its prediction in the Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Men, Ke-Pei [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). College of Mathematics and Statistics; Cui, Lei [California Univ., Santa Barbara, CA (United States). Applied Probability and Statistics Dept.

2013-05-15

The the Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region is one of the key seismic monitoring defence areas in the eastern part of China. Since 1846, M {>=} 6 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region. The main orderly values are 74 {proportional_to} 75 a, 57 {proportional_to} 58 a, 11 {proportional_to} 12 a, and 5 {proportional_to} 6 a, wherein 74 {proportional_to} 75 a and 57 {proportional_to} 58 a with an outstanding predictive role. According to the information prediction theory of Wen-Bo Weng, we conceived the M {>=} 6 strong earthquake ordered network structure in the South Yellow Sea and the whole region. Based on this, we analyzed and discussed the variation of seismicity in detail and also made a trend prediction of M {>=} 6 strong earthquakes in the future. The results showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode which may continue until about 2042; and the first M {>=} 6 strong earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur in 2053 pre and post, with the location likely in the sea area of the South Yellow Sea; also, the second and the third ones or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur in 2058 and 2070 pre and post. (orig.)

Towards real-time regional earthquake simulation I: real-time moment tensor monitoring (RMT) for regional events in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Cheng, Hui-Wen; Tu, Feng-Shan; Ma, Kuo-Fong; Tsuruoka, Hiroshi; Kawakatsu, Hitoshi; Huang, Bor-Shouh; Liu, Chun-Chi

2014-01-01

We have developed a real-time moment tensor monitoring system (RMT) which takes advantage of a grid-based moment tensor inversion technique and real-time broad-band seismic recordings to automatically monitor earthquake activities in the vicinity of Taiwan. The centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion technique and a grid search scheme are applied to obtain the information of earthquake source parameters, including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism. All of these source parameters can be determined simultaneously within 117 s after the occurrence of an earthquake. The monitoring area involves the entire Taiwan Island and the offshore region, which covers the area of 119.3°E to 123.0°E and 21.0°N to 26.0°N, with a depth from 6 to 136 km. A 3-D grid system is implemented in the monitoring area with a uniform horizontal interval of 0.1° and a vertical interval of 10 km. The inversion procedure is based on a 1-D Green's function database calculated by the frequency-wavenumber (fk) method. We compare our results with the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) catalogue data for earthquakes occurred between 2010 and 2012. The average differences between event origin time and hypocentral location are less than 2 s and 10 km, respectively. The focal mechanisms determined by RMT are also comparable with the Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology (BATS) CMT solutions. These results indicate that the RMT system is realizable and efficient to monitor local seismic activities. In addition, the time needed to obtain all the point source parameters is reduced substantially compared to routine earthquake reports. By connecting RMT with a real-time online earthquake simulation (ROS) system, all the source parameters will be forwarded to the ROS to make the real-time earthquake simulation feasible. The RMT has operated offline (2010-2011) and online (since January 2012 to present) at the Institute of Earth Sciences (IES), Academia Sinica

Earthquakes, November-December 1977

Science.gov (United States)

Person, W.J.

1978-01-01

Two major earthquakes occurred in the last 2 months of the year. A magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck San Juan Province, Argentina, on November 23, causing fatalities and damage. The second major earthquake was a magnitude 7.0 in the Bonin Islands region, an unpopulated area. On December 19, Iran experienced a destructive earthquake, which killed over 500.

Evidence for strong Holocene earthquake(s) in the Wabash Valley seismic zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obermeier, S.

1991-01-01

Many small and slightly damaging earthquakes have taken place in the region of the lower Wabash River Valley of Indiana and Illinois during the 200 years of historic record. Seismologists have long suspected the Wabash Valley seismic zone to be capable of producing earthquakes much stronger than the largest of record (m b 5.8). The seismic zone contains the poorly defined Wabash Valley fault zone and also appears to contain other vaguely defined faults at depths from which the strongest earthquakes presently originate. Faults near the surface are generally covered with thick alluvium in lowlands and a veneer of loess in uplands, which make direct observations of faults difficult. Partly because of this difficulty, a search for paleoliquefaction features was begun in 1990. Conclusions of the study are as follows: (1) an earthquake much stronger than any historic earthquake struck the lower Wabash Valley between 1,500 and 7,500 years ago; (2) the epicentral region of the prehistoric strong earthquake was the Wabash Valley seismic zone; (3) apparent sites have been located where 1811-12 earthquake accelerations can be bracketed

Numerical modeling of block structure dynamics: Application to the Vrancea region and study of earthquakes sequences in the synthetic catalogs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soloviev, A.A.; Vorobieva, I.A.

1995-08-01

A seismically active region is represented as a system of absolutely rigid blocks divided by infinitely thin plane faults. The interaction of the blocks along the fault planes and with the underlying medium is viscous-elastic. The system of blocks moves as a consequence of prescribed motion of boundary blocks and the underlying medium. When for some part of a fault plane the stress surpasses a certain strength level a stress-drop (''a failure'') occurs. It can cause a failure for other parts of fault planes. The failures are considered as earthquakes. As a result of the numerical simulation a synthetic earthquake catalogue is produced. This procedure is applied for numerical modeling of dynamics of the block structure approximating the tectonic structure of the Vrancea region. By numerical experiments the values of the model parameters were obtained which supplied the synthetic earthquake catalog with the space distribution of epicenters close to the real distribution of the earthquake epicenters in the Vrancea region. The frequency-magnitude relations (Gutenberg-Richter curves) obtained for the synthetic and real catalogs have some common features. The sequences of earthquakes arising in the model are studied for some artificial structures. It is found that ''foreshocks'', ''main shocks'', and ''aftershocks'' could be detected among earthquakes forming the sequences. The features of aftershocks, foreshocks, and catalogs of main shocks are analysed. (author). 5 refs, 12 figs, 16 tabs

Recent earthquake activity in Trichonis region and its tectonic significance

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N. DELIBASIS

1977-06-01

Full Text Available SUMMARY. - The aftershock activity associated with the central Greece
(Trichonis Lake earthquake of |une-Dec. 1975, has been studied, with emphasis
on the time and magnitude distribution. It has been found that the value of b,
in Gutenberg - R i c h t e r ' s relationship was near the same for the primary as
well as the secondary or second order aftershocks of the sequences, but depends
upon the focal depth.
A correlation between the calculated focal mechanisms and the associated
stress components to the distribution pattern of meizoseismic effects as well
as to the geological structure of the seismic region was found.
The seismic region lies at the top of an anticline which was found moving
downwards, apparently due to compressional stresses.
Within the series of three earthquakes the progress of the destruction of
the buildings was observed and reported. The interest is concentrated to modern
buildings out of reinforced concrete and infill brick walls. The relatively unexpected
rather bad performance of the later case of buildings was compared to that
of the traditional small houses out of brick or stone masonry, the behaviour of
which may be considered as better from what it was expected.

Earthquake occurrence reveals magma ascent beneath volcanoes and seamounts in the Banda Region

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Špičák, Aleš; Kuna, Václav; Vaněk, Jiří

2013-01-01

Roč. 75, č. 777 (2013), 777/1-777/8 ISSN 0258-8900 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME09011 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : Banda region * global seismological data * earthquake swarm Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.667, year: 2013

Transient postseismic mantle relaxation following 2004 Sumatra earthquake: implications of seismic vulnerability in the Andaman-Nicobar region

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C. D. Reddy

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Throughout the world, the tsunami generation potential of some large under-sea earthquakes significantly contributes to regional seismic hazard, which gives rise to significant risk in the near-shore provinces where human settlements are in sizeable population, often referred to as coastal seismic risk. In this context, we show from the pertinent GPS data that the transient stresses generated by the viscoelastic relaxation process taking place in the mantle is capable of rupturing major faults by stress transfer from the mantle through the lower crust including triggering additional rupture on the other major faults. We also infer that postseismic relaxation at relatively large depths can push some of the fault segments to reactivation causing failure sequences. As an illustration to these effects, we consider in detail the earthquake sequence comprising six events, starting from the main event of M_w = 7.5, on 10 August 2009 and tapering off to a small earthquake of M_w = 4.5 on 2 February 2011 over a period of eighteen months in the intensely seismic Andaman Islands between India and Myanmar. The persisting transient stresses, spatio-temporal seismic pattern, modeled Coulomb stress changes, and the southward migration of earthquake activity has increased the probability of moderate earthquakes recurring in the northern Andaman region, particularly closer to or somewhat south of Diglipur.

Characteristics of isostatic gravity anomaly in Sichuan-Yunnan region, China

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Bingcheng Liu

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Sichuan-Yunnan region in China, a tectonic transition belt where earthquakes occurred frequently and intensely, has a distinct variation characteristic of gradient zone of Bouguer gravity anomaly (BGA. Many deep faults and epicenters of severe earthquake scatter along the BGA gradient zones. Here we apply two forward models (Airy model and Vening Meinesz model of isostatic gravity mechanisms (local versus regional in this region to calculated the isostatic gravity anomaly (IGA. Afterwards, the relationship between IGA and distribution of faults as well as seismicity is also illustrated. The IGA results show that the two models are similar and most parts of the study area are in an isostatic state. Most featured faults are distributed along the steep anomaly gradient zones; earthquakes tend to occur in the non-isostatic area and steep gradient belt of IGA. The distribution of root thickness based on regional mechanism can be associated with the main trend of BGA variation. The regional mechanism is more plausible and closer to the reality because of its relatively further consideration of the horizontal forces derived from adjacent particles in the crust. Then we analyze the effect of isostasy on the tectonic movements and find that the isostatic adjustment is not the main cause of the continuous uplift process of Longmenshan Mountain fault zone, which is due to the Indian-Eurasian continental collision.

Radon observation for earthquake prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wakita, Hiroshi [Tokyo Univ. (Japan)

1998-12-31

Systematic observation of groundwater radon for the purpose of earthquake prediction began in Japan in late 1973. Continuous observations are conducted at fixed stations using deep wells and springs. During the observation period, significant precursory changes including the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai (M7.0) earthquake as well as numerous coseismic changes were observed. At the time of the 1995 Kobe (M7.2) earthquake, significant changes in chemical components, including radon dissolved in groundwater, were observed near the epicentral region. Precursory changes are presumably caused by permeability changes due to micro-fracturing in basement rock or migration of water from different sources during the preparation stage of earthquakes. Coseismic changes may be caused by seismic shaking and by changes in regional stress. Significant drops of radon concentration in groundwater have been observed after earthquakes at the KSM site. The occurrence of such drops appears to be time-dependent, and possibly reflects changes in the regional stress state of the observation area. The absence of radon drops seems to be correlated with periods of reduced regional seismic activity. Experience accumulated over the two past decades allows us to reach some conclusions: 1) changes in groundwater radon do occur prior to large earthquakes; 2) some sites are particularly sensitive to earthquake occurrence; and 3) the sensitivity changes over time. (author)

Analysis of Seismotektonic Patterns in Sumatra Region Based on the Focal Mechanism of Earthquake Period 1976-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Indah, F. P.; Syafriani, S.; Andiyansyah, Z. S.

2018-04-01

Sumatra is in an active subduction zone between the indo-australian plate and the eurasian plate and is located at a fault along the sumatra fault so that sumatra is vulnerable to earthquakes. One of the ways to find out the cause of earthquake can be done by identifying the type of earthquake-causing faults based on earthquake of focal mechanism. The data used to identify the type of fault cause of earthquake is the earth tensor moment data which is sourced from global cmt period 1976-2016. The data used in this research using magnitude m ≥ 6 sr. This research uses gmt software (generic mapping tolls) to describe the form of fault. From the research result, it is found that the characteristics of fault field that formed in every region in sumatera island based on data processing and data of earthquake history of 1976-2016 period that the type of fault in sumatera fault is strike slip, fault type in mentawai fault is reverse fault (rising faults) and dip-slip, while the fault type in the subduction zone is dip-slip.

Surface rupture and vertical deformation associated with 20 May 2016 M6 Petermann Ranges earthquake, Northern Territory, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Gold, Ryan; Clark, Dan; King, Tamarah; Quigley, Mark

2017-04-01

Surface-rupturing earthquakes in stable continental regions (SCRs) occur infrequently, though when they occur in heavily populated regions the damage and loss of life can be severe (e.g., 2001 Bhuj earthquake). Quantifying the surface-rupture characteristics of these low-probability events is therefore important, both to improve understanding of the on- and off-fault deformation field near the rupture trace and to provide additional constraints on earthquake magnitude to rupture length and displacement, which are critical inputs for seismic hazard calculations. This investigation focuses on the 24 August 2016 M6.0 Petermann Ranges earthquake, Northern Territory, Australia. We use 0.3-0.5 m high-resolution optical Worldview satellite imagery to map the trace of the surface rupture associated with the earthquake. From our mapping, we are able to trace the rupture over a length of 20 km, trending NW, and exhibiting apparent north-side-up motion. To quantify the magnitude of vertical surface deformation, we use stereo Worldview images processed using NASA Ames Stereo Pipeline software to generate pre- and post-earthquake digital terrain models with a spatial resolution of 1.5 to 2 m. The surface scarp is apparent in much of the post-event digital terrain model. Initial efforts to difference the pre- and post-event digital terrain models yield noisy results, though we detect vertical deformation of 0.2 to 0.6 m over length scales of 100 m to 1 km from the mapped trace of the rupture. Ongoing efforts to remove ramps and perform spatial smoothing will improve our understanding of the extent and pattern of vertical deformation. Additionally, we will compare our results with InSAR and field measurements obtained following the earthquake.

Subducting plate geology in three great earthquake ruptures of the western Alaska margin, Kodiak to Unimak

Science.gov (United States)

von Huene, Roland E.; Miller, John J.; Weinrebe, Wilhelm

2012-01-01

Three destructive earthquakes along the Alaska subduction zone sourced transoceanic tsunamis during the past 70 years. Since it is reasoned that past rupture areas might again source tsunamis in the future, we studied potential asperities and barriers in the subduction zone by examining Quaternary Gulf of Alaska plate history, geophysical data, and morphology. We relate the aftershock areas to subducting lower plate relief and dissimilar materials in the seismogenic zone in the 1964 Kodiak and adjacent 1938 Semidi Islands earthquake segments. In the 1946 Unimak earthquake segment, the exposed lower plate seafloor lacks major relief that might organize great earthquake rupture. However, the upper plate contains a deep transverse-trending basin and basement ridges associated with the Eocene continental Alaska convergent margin transition to the Aleutian island arc. These upper plate features are sufficiently large to have affected rupture propagation. In addition, massive slope failure in the Unimak area may explain the local 42-m-high 1946 tsunami runup. Although Quaternary geologic and tectonic processes included accretion to form a frontal prism, the study of seismic images, samples, and continental slope physiography shows a previous history of tectonic erosion. Implied asperities and barriers in the seismogenic zone could organize future great earthquake rupture.

Research in historical earthquakes in the Korean peninsula and its circumferential regions

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

翟文杰; 吴戈; 韩绍欣

2004-01-01

@@ The historical earthquake data is one of the important foundations for seismic monitoring, earthquake fore-cast and seismic safety evaluation. However, the recognition of earthquake is limited by the scientific and techno-logical level. Therefore, the earthquake can only be described using perfect earthquake catalogue after the seismo-graph is invented. Before this time, the earthquake parameters were determined according to the earthquake disas-ter on the surface and the written records in history, and the earthquake level was measured using earthquake in-tensity.

Earthquake clustering in the tectonic pattern and volcanism of the Andaman Sea region

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Špičák, Aleš; Vaněk, Jiří

2013-01-01

Roč. 608, November (2013), s. 728-736 ISSN 0040-1951 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME09011 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : earthquake swarm * Andaman Sea region * global seismological data * submarine volcanism * magma intrusion Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.866, year: 2013

Earthquake-triggered landslides in southwest China

OpenAIRE

X. L. Chen; Q. Zhou; H. Ran; R. Dong

2012-01-01

Southwest China is located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and it is a region of high seismic activity. Historically, strong earthquakes that occurred here usually generated lots of landslides and brought destructive damages. This paper introduces several earthquake-triggered landslide events in this region and describes their characteristics. Also, the historical data of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater, having occurred in this region, is col...

Delayed inflation triggerd by regional earthquakes at Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lupi, M.; Frehner, M.; Weis, P.; Skelton, A.; Saenger, E.; Tisato, N.; Geiger, S.; Chiodini, G.; Driesner, T.

2017-12-01

What if earthquakes were affecting volcanoes more than we currently think because their effects are not immediately visible? Earthquake-volcano interactions promoted by dynamic and static stresses are considered seldom and difficult-to-capture geological processes. The Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, is one of the best-monitored volcanic systems worldwide. We use a 70-years long time series to suggest a provocative and intriguing hypothesis to explain bradyseismic activity at Campi Flegrei. By comparing ground elevation time series at Campi Flegrei with seismic catalogues we show that uplift events at Campi Flegrei follow within 1.2 years large regional earthquakes. The accelerated uplifts are over-imposed on long-term inflation or deflation trends. Such association is supported by (yet-non definitive) binomial tests. Due to the non-definitive nature of the statistical tests we carried on additional numerical tests. We simulate the propagation of elastic waves showing that passing body waves impose high dynamic strains at the roof of the magmatic reservoir of the Campi Flegrei at about 7 km depth. Such elevated dynamic strains promote a brittle behaviour in an otherwise ductile material (i.e. the crystal mush) at near-lithostatic conditions. Such failure allows magma and exsolved volatiles to be released from the magmatic reservoir. The fluids would ascend through a plastic zone above the magmatic reservoir and inject into the shallow hydrothermal system where they phase-separate and expand causing a delayed effect, i.e. inflation. This mechanism and the associated inherent uncertainties require further investigations. However, the new concept already implies that geological processes triggered by passing seismic waves may become apparent several months after the triggering earthquake.

GPS Monitoring of Surface Change During and Following the Fortuitous Occurrence of the M(sub w) = 7.3 Landers Earthquake in our Network

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, M. Meghan

1998-01-01

Accomplishments: (1) Continues GPS monitoring of surface change during and following the fortuitous occurrence of the M(sub w) = 7.3 Landers earthquake in our network, in order to characterize earthquake dynamics and accelerated activity of related faults as far as 100's of kilometers along strike. (2) Integrates the geodetic constraints into consistent kinematic descriptions of the deformation field that can in turn be used to characterize the processes that drive geodynamics, including seismic cycle dynamics. In 1991, we installed and occupied a high precision GPS geodetic network to measure transform-related deformation that is partitioned from the Pacific - North America plate boundary northeastward through the Mojave Desert, via the Eastern California shear zone to the Walker Lane. The onset of the M(sub w) = 7.3 June 28, 1992, Landers, California, earthquake sequence within this network poses unique opportunities for continued monitoring of regional surface deformation related to the culmination of a major seismic cycle, characterization of the dynamic behavior of continental lithosphere during the seismic sequence, and post-seismic transient deformation. During the last year, we have reprocessed all three previous epochs for which JPL fiducial free point positioning products available and are queued for the remaining needed products, completed two field campaigns monitoring approx. 20 sites (October 1995 and September 1996), begun modeling by development of a finite element mesh based on network station locations, and developed manuscripts dealing with both the Landers-related transient deformation at the latitude of Lone Pine and the velocity field of the whole experiment. We are currently deploying a 1997 observation campaign (June 1997). We use GPS geodetic studies to characterize deformation in the Mojave Desert region and related structural domains to the north, and geophysical modeling of lithospheric behavior. The modeling is constrained by our

Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Allen, Trevor I.; Hearne, Michael G.; Marano, Kristin D.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Fee, Jeremy

2009-01-01

Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

RECENT STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN CENTRAL ASIA: REGULAR TECTONOPHYSICAL FEATURES OF LOCATIONS IN THE STRUCTURE AND GEODYNAMICS OF THE LITHOSPHERE. PART 1. MAIN GEODYNAMIC FACTORS PREDETERMINING LOCATIONS OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE LITHOSPHER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. I. Sherman

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Studying locations of strong earthquakes (М≥8 in space and time in Central Asia has been among top prob-lems for many years and still remains challenging for international research teams. The authors propose a new ap-proach that requires changing the paradigm of earthquake focus – solid rock relations, while this paradigm is a basis for practically all known physical models of earthquake foci. This paper describes the first step towards developing a new concept of the seismic process, including generation of strong earthquakes, with reference to specific geodynamic features of the part of the study region wherein strong earthquakes were recorded in the past two centuries. Our analysis of the locations of М≥8 earthquakes shows that in the past two centuries such earthquakes took place in areas of the dynamic influence of large deep faults in the western regions of Central Asia. In the continental Asia, there is a clear submeridional structural boundary (95–105°E between the western and eastern regions, and this is a factor controlling localization of strong seismic events in the western regions. Obviously, the Indostan plate’s pressure from the south is an energy source for such events. The strong earthquakes are located in a relatively small part of the territory of Central Asia (i.e. the western regions, which is significantly different from its neighbouring areas at the north, east and west, as evidenced by its specific geodynamic parameters. (1 The crust is twice as thick in the western regions than in the eastern regions. (2 In the western regions, the block structures re-sulting from the crust destruction, which are mainly represented by lense-shaped forms elongated in the submeridio-nal direction, tend to dominate. (3 Active faults bordering large block structures are characterized by significant slip velocities that reach maximum values in the central part of the Tibetan plateau. Further northward, slip velocities decrease

The 2012 Strike-slip Earthquake Sequence in Black Sea and its Link to the Caucasus Collision Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, T. L.; Hsu, C. H.; Legendre, C. P.; Jian, P. R.; Huang, B. S.; Karakhanian, A.; Chen, C. W.

2016-12-01

The Black Sea formed as a back-arc basin in Late Cretaceous to Paleogene with lots of extensional features. However, the Black Sea is now tectonically stable and absent of notable earthquakes except for the coastal region. In this study we invert regional waveforms of a new seismic array to constrain the focal mechanisms and depths of the 2012/12/23 earthquake sequence occurred in northeastern Black Sea basin that can provide unique estimates on the stress field in the region. The results show that the focal mechanisms for the main shock and 5 larger aftershocks are all strike-slip faulting and resembling with each other. The main rupture fall along the vertical dipping, NW-SE trending sinistral fault indicated by the lineation of most aftershocks. The fault strike and aftershock distribution are both consistent with the Shatsky Ridge, which is continental in nature but large normal faults was created by previous subsidence. The occurrence of 2012 earthquakes can be re-activated, as strike-slip, on one of the pre-existing normal fault cutting at depth nearly 20-30 km in the extended crust. Some of the aftershocks, including a larger one occurred 5 days later, are distributed toward NE direction 20 km away from main fault zone. Those events might be triggered by the main shock along a conjugate fault, which is surprisingly at the extension of proposed transform fault perpendicular to the rift axis of eastern Black Sea Basin. The focal mechanisms also indicate that the maximum compression in northeast Black Sea is at E-W direction, completely different from the N-S compression in the Caucasus and East Turkey controlled by Arabia-Eurasia collision. The origin of E-W maximum compression is probably the same as the secondary stress inferred from earthquakes in Racha region of the Greater Caucasus.

Links Between Earthquake Characteristics and Subducting Plate Heterogeneity in the 2016 Pedernales Ecuador Earthquake Rupture Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2016-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

Baseline geophysical data for hazard management in coastal areas in relation to earthquakes and tsunamis

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Murthy, K.S.R.

is another factor for some of the intraplate earthquakes in the South Indian Shield, which includes the Eastern and Western Continental Margins of India. Baseline geophysical data for hazard management in coastal areas in relation to earthquakes... surge. Keywords Hazard management, marine geophysical data, geomorphology and tsunami surge, coastal seismicity Date received: 7 August 2015; accepted: 15 October 2015 CSIR – National Institute of Oceanography, Visakhapatnam, India Corresponding author...

On the reliability of the geomagnetic quake as a short time earthquake's precursor for the Sofia region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Cht. Mavrodiev

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The local 'when' for earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic 'quakes' and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately ±1 day and for the maximum ±2 days. The preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between occurred and predicted earthquakes for the period 2002-2003 for the Sofia region is given. The possibility for creating a local 'when, where' earthquake research and prediction NETWORK is based on the accurate monitoring of the electromagnetic field with special space and time scales under, on and over the Earth's surface. The periodically upgraded information from seismic hazard maps and other standard geodetic information, as well as other precursory information, is essential.

Surface latent heat flux as an earthquake precursor

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S. Dey

2003-01-01

Full Text Available The analysis of surface latent heat flux (SLHF from the epicentral regions of five recent earthquakes that occurred in close proximity to the oceans has been found to show anomalous behavior. The maximum increase of SLHF is found 2–7 days prior to the main earthquake event. This increase is likely due to an ocean-land-atmosphere interaction. The increase of SLHF prior to the main earthquake event is attributed to the increase in infrared thermal (IR temperature in the epicentral and surrounding region. The anomalous increase in SLHF shows great potential in providing early warning of a disastrous earthquake, provided that there is a better understanding of the background noise due to the tides and monsoon in surface latent heat flux. Efforts have been made to understand the level of background noise in the epicentral regions of the five earthquakes considered in the present paper. A comparison of SLHF from the epicentral regions over the coastal earthquakes and the earthquakes that occurred far away from the coast has been made and it has been found that the anomalous behavior of SLHF prior to the main earthquake event is only associated with the coastal earthquakes.

Long-period ground motions at near-regional distances caused by the PL wave from, inland earthquakes: Observation and numerical simulation of the 2004 Mid-Niigata, Japan, Mw6.6 earthquake

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Furumura, T.; Kennett, B. L. N.

2017-12-01

We examine the development of large, long-period ground motions at near-regional distances (D=50-200 km) generated by the PL wave from large, shallow inland earthquakes, based on the analysis of strong motion records and finite-difference method (FDM) simulations of seismic wave propagation. PL wave can be represented as leaking modes of the crustal waveguide and are commonly observed at regional distances between 300 to 1000 km as a dispersed, long-period signal with a dominant period of about 20 s. However, observations of recent earthquakes at the dense K-NET and KiK-net strong motion networks in Japan demonstrate the dominance of the PL wave at near-regional (D=50-200 km) distances as, e.g., for the 2004 Mid Niigata, Japan, earthquake (Mw6.6; h=13 km). The observed PL wave signal between P and S wave shows a large, dispersed wave packet with dominant period of about T=4-10 s with amplitude almost comparable to or larger than the later arrival of the S and surface waves. Thus, the early arrivals of the long-period PL wave immediately after P wave can enhance resonance with large-scale constructions such as high-rise buildings and large oil-storage tanks etc. with potential for disaster. Such strong effects often occurred during the 2004 Mid Niigata earthquakes and other large earthquakes which occurred nearby the Kanto (Tokyo) basin. FDM simulation of seismic wave propagation employing realistic 3-D sedimentary structure models demonstrates the process by which the PL wave develops at near-regional distances from shallow, crustal earthquakes by constructive interference of the P wave in the long-period band. The amplitude of the PL wave is very sensitive to low-velocity structure in the near-surface. Lowered velocities help to develop large SV-to-P conversion and weaken the P-to-SV conversion at the free surface. Both effects enhance the multiple P reflections in the crustal waveguide and prevent the leakage of seismic energy into the mantle. However, a very

Long wavelength magnetic anomalies over continental rifts in cratonic region

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, S. A.; Persaud, P.; Ferre, E. C.; Martín-Hernández, F.; Feinberg, J. M.

2017-12-01

New collections of unaltered mantle xenoliths shed light on potential upper mantle contributions to long wavelength magnetic anomalies (LWMA) in continental rifts in cratonic / shield areas. The new material originates from the East African Rift (Tanzania), the Rio Grande Rift (U.S.A.), the Rhine Rift (Germany), and the West Antarctic Rift (Antarctica). The xenoliths sample the uppermost ( 0.2 or Fe geotherms (>60ºC/km) that are characteristic of rifted regions preclude any contribution to LWMA at depths >10 km. Hence, only upper basalts and hypovolcanic mafic sills would constitute potential magnetic sources. In contrast, the margins of these rifted regions consist of refractory cratonic domains, often characterized by oxidized sublithospheric mantle that host significant concentrations of primary magnetite. The higher NRMs of these peridotites (up to 15 A/m, Qn > 2.5) combined with much lower geotherms (as low as 15ºC/km) allows for a 5 to 10 km layer of uppermost mantle to potentially contribute to LWMA. Assuming that Qn values in rift margins are also gradient across the rift would primarily reflect thermal equilibration over time.

The 2012 Ferrara seismic sequence: Regional crustal structure, earthquake sources, and seismic hazard

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Malagnini, Luca; Herrmann, Robert B.; Munafò, Irene; Buttinelli, Mauro; Anselmi, Mario; Akinci, Aybige; Boschi, E.

2012-10-01

Inadequate seismic design codes can be dangerous, particularly when they underestimate the true hazard. In this study we use data from a sequence of moderate-sized earthquakes in northeast Italy to validate and test a regional wave propagation model which, in turn, is used to understand some weaknesses of the current design spectra. Our velocity model, while regionalized and somewhat ad hoc, is consistent with geophysical observations and the local geology. In the 0.02-0.1 Hz band, this model is validated by using it to calculate moment tensor solutions of 20 earthquakes (5.6 ≥ MW ≥ 3.2) in the 2012 Ferrara, Italy, seismic sequence. The seismic spectra observed for the relatively small main shock significantly exceeded the design spectra to be used in the area for critical structures. Observations and synthetics reveal that the ground motions are dominated by long-duration surface waves, which, apparently, the design codes do not adequately anticipate. In light of our results, the present seismic hazard assessment in the entire Pianura Padana, including the city of Milan, needs to be re-evaluated.

A comparative study on strengthening applications of prefabricated buildings in earthquake regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arslan, M. Hakan; Gulay, F. Gulten

2006-01-01

Damages to prefabricated industrial structures caused by earthquakes in the last ten years in Turkey have occurred to an enormous extent. Among the causes of this damage, the inherent characteristic weakness of the load-carrying systems and constructing most of them according to the earthquake code applied before 1998 can be listed. The tragic situation that appeared after earthquakes emphasized that existing prefabricated constructions should be strengthened/improved according to the code which became valid after 1998. This study comprises three sections. The damage types in prefabricated reinforced concrete structures caused by earthquakes and the strengthening models (samples) that can be applied to these structures will be mentioned in the first and second sections, respectively. The last and the analytical part of the study will be about the selection of the most often damaged industrial construction type which is preferred in industrial regions and application of selecting strengthening methods performed by modeling these structures according to three different span types (1-S, 2-S, 3-S). The strengthening methods will be Sheer wall (SW), Steel Bracing (B), Steel Beam (SB) and Column Jacketing (CJ). All the systems will be calculated by using non-linear procedures (pushover analysis). The analysis performed by using a Software Package (DRAIN-2DX), will be applied to each frame in order to obtain load-displacement curves. The real hinge parameters will be defined using FEMA-356 to reflect the existing conditions. The results will be compared by considering the contribution of strengthening and especially system performance to displacement ductility. (author)

Regional earthquake loss estimation in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy)

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Huttenlau, Matthias; Winter, Benjamin

2013-04-01

Beside storm events geophysical events cause a majority of natural hazard losses on a global scale. However, in alpine regions with a moderate earthquake risk potential like in the study area and thereupon connected consequences on the collective memory this source of risk is often neglected in contrast to gravitational and hydrological hazards processes. In this context, the comparative analysis of potential disasters and emergencies on a national level in Switzerland (Katarisk study) has shown that earthquakes are the most serious source of risk in general. In order to estimate the potential losses of earthquake events for different return periods and loss dimensions of extreme events the following study was conducted in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy). The applied methodology follows the generally accepted risk concept based on the risk components hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability, whereby risk is not defined holistically (direct, indirect, tangible and intangible) but with the risk category losses on buildings and inventory as a general risk proxy. The hazard analysis is based on a regional macroseismic scenario approach. Thereby, the settlement centre of each community (116 communities) is defined as potential epicentre. For each epicentre four different epicentral scenarios (return periods of 98, 475, 975 and 2475 years) are calculated based on the simple but approved and generally accepted attenuation law according to Sponheuer (1960). The relevant input parameters to calculate the epicentral scenarios are (i) the macroseismic intensity and (ii) the focal depth. The considered macroseismic intensities are based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Italian earthquake catalogue on a community level (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile). The relevant focal depth are considered as a mean within a defined buffer of the focal depths of the harmonized earthquake catalogues of Italy and Switzerland as well as

Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

Science.gov (United States)

Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

2015-01-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

Fault Structural Control on Earthquake Strong Ground Motions: The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake as an Example

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Dongli; Li, Xiaojun; Huang, Bei; Zheng, Wenjun; Wang, Yuejun

2018-02-01

Continental thrust faulting earthquakes pose severe threats to megacities across the world. Recent events show the possible control of fault structures on strong ground motions. The seismogenic structure of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is associated with high-angle listric reverse fault zones. Its peak ground accelerations (PGAs) show a prominent feature of fault zone amplification: the values within the 30- to 40-km-wide fault zone block are significantly larger than those on both the hanging wall and the footwall. The PGA values attenuate asymmetrically: they decay much more rapidly in the footwall than in the hanging wall. The hanging wall effects can be seen on both the vertical and horizontal components of the PGAs, with the former significantly more prominent than the latter. All these characteristics can be adequately interpreted by upward extrusion of the high-angle listric reverse fault zone block. Through comparison with a low-angle planar thrust fault associated with the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, we conclude that different fault structures might have controlled different patterns of strong ground motion, which should be taken into account in seismic design and construction.

Insights into earthquake hazard map performance from shaking history simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, S.; Vanneste, K.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

2017-12-01

Why recent large earthquakes caused shaking stronger than predicted by earthquake hazard maps is under debate. This issue has two parts. Verification involves how well maps implement probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) ("have we built the map right?"). Validation asks how well maps forecast shaking ("have we built the right map?"). We explore how well a map can ideally perform by simulating an area's shaking history and comparing "observed" shaking to that predicted by a map generated for the same parameters. The simulations yield shaking distributions whose mean is consistent with the map, but individual shaking histories show large scatter. Infrequent large earthquakes cause shaking much stronger than mapped, as observed. Hence, PSHA seems internally consistent and can be regarded as verified. Validation is harder because an earthquake history can yield shaking higher or lower than that predicted while being consistent with the hazard map. The scatter decreases for longer observation times because the largest earthquakes and resulting shaking are increasingly likely to have occurred. For the same reason, scatter is much less for the more active plate boundary than for a continental interior. For a continental interior, where the mapped hazard is low, even an M4 event produces exceedances at some sites. Larger earthquakes produce exceedances at more sites. Thus many exceedances result from small earthquakes, but infrequent large ones may cause very large exceedances. However, for a plate boundary, an M6 event produces exceedance at only a few sites, and an M7 produces them in a larger, but still relatively small, portion of the study area. As reality gives only one history, and a real map involves assumptions about more complicated source geometries and occurrence rates, which are unlikely to be exactly correct and thus will contribute additional scatter, it is hard to assess whether misfit between actual shaking and a map — notably higher

Complex Non-volcanic Tremor in Guerrero Mexico Triggered by the 2010 Mw 8.8 Chilean Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Zigone, D.; Campillo, M.; Husker, A. L.; Kostoglodov, V.; Payero, J. S.; Frank, W.; Shapiro, N. M.; Voisin, C.; Cougoulat, G.; Cotte, N.

2010-12-01

In this study we analyze the tremors triggered in Guerrero region (Mexico) by the 2010 magnitude 8.8 Chilean Earthquake using mini-seismic array data from the French-Mexican G-GAP project and broadband data from the Servicio Sismologico Nacional of Mexico. The strong dynamic shaking by the earthquake produced the first observed triggered non-volcanic tremors (NVT) in Mexico so far with at least 3 different types of tremors at different time scales. There was a slow slip event (SSE) occurring at the time of the earthquake, which may have increased the probability of tremor triggering in the region. The first type of observed triggered tremors occurred during the S waves, Love waves and Rayleigh waves as already reported in other subductions zones and continental faults (Miyazawa and Mori, 2005, 2006; Rubinstein et al., 2007; Gomberg et al., 2008; Peng et al, 2009…). The greatest amount of energy and duration accompanies the long-period Rayleigh waves, with smaller bursts during the S and Love waves. For this particular tremor we observed the dispersion of Rayleigh waves in the envelopes of triggered tremors, which indicates a very strong modulation of the source by the passing surface wave. An unexpected short-term tremor occurred approximately one hour later of the arrival of the surface waves on the coastal stations. The NVT has only been previously observed at distances > 100 km inland. It also has a shorter frequency range (3-6 Hz) than other NVT (1-10 Hz) observed in the region. Finally, we observed a significant increase of so-called ambient tremor activity with higher intensity than all triggered NVT during the days after the earthquake. This study adds new types of tremors to the lexicon of triggered NVT observed in the world.

Network similarity and statistical analysis of earthquake seismic data

OpenAIRE

Deyasi, Krishanu; Chakraborty, Abhijit; Banerjee, Anirban

2016-01-01

We study the structural similarity of earthquake networks constructed from seismic catalogs of different geographical regions. A hierarchical clustering of underlying undirected earthquake networks is shown using Jensen-Shannon divergence in graph spectra. The directed nature of links indicates that each earthquake network is strongly connected, which motivates us to study the directed version statistically. Our statistical analysis of each earthquake region identifies the hub regions. We cal...

Dynamic Earthquake Triggering on Seismogenic Faults in Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Y.; Chen, X.; Peng, Z.; Aiken, C.

2016-12-01

Regions with high pore pressure are generally more susceptible to dynamic triggering from transient stress change caused by surface wave of distant earthquakes. The stress threshold from triggering studies can help understand the stress state of seismogenic faults. The recent dramatic seismicity increase in central US provides a rich database for assessing dynamic triggering phenomena. We begin our study by conducting a systematic analysis of dynamic triggering for the continental U.S using ANSS catalog (with magnitude of completeness Mc=3) from 49 global mainshocks (Ms>6.5, depth1kPa). We calculate β value for each 1° by 1° bins in 30 days before and 10 days after the mainshock. To identify regions that experience triggering from a distant mainshock, we generate a stacked map using β≥2 - which represents significant seismicity rate increase. As expected, the geothermal and volcanic fields in California show clear response to distant earthquakes. We also note areas in Oklahoma and north Texas show enhanced triggering, where wastewater-injection induced seismicity are occurring. Next we focus on Oklahoma and use a local catalog from Oklahoma Geological Survey with lower completeness threshold Mc to calculate the beta map in 0.2° by 0.2° bins for each selected mainshock to obtain finer spatial resolutions of the triggering behavior. For those grids with β larger than 2.0, we use waveforms from nearby stations to search for triggered events. The April 2015 M7.8 Nepal earthquake causes a statistically significant increase of local seismicity (β=3.5) in the Woodward area (west Oklahoma) during an on-going earthquake sequence. By visually examining the surface wave from the nearest station, we identify 3 larger local events, and 10 additional smaller events with weaker but discernable amplitude. Preliminary analysis shows that the triggering is related to Rayleigh wave, which would cause dilatational or shear stress changes along the strike direction of

Active tectonics and earthquake potential of the Myanmar region

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yu; Sieh, Kerry; Tun, Soe Thura; Lai, Kuang-Yin; Myint, Than

2014-04-01

This paper describes geomorphologic evidence for the principal neotectonic features of Myanmar and its immediate surroundings. We combine this evidence with published structural, geodetic, and seismic data to present an overview of the active tectonic architecture of the region and its seismic potential. Three tectonic systems accommodate oblique collision of the Indian plate with Southeast Asia and extrusion of Asian territory around the eastern syntaxis of the Himalayan mountain range. Subduction and collision associated with the Sunda megathrust beneath and within the Indoburman range and Naga Hills accommodate most of the shortening across the transpressional plate boundary. The Sagaing fault system is the predominant locus of dextral motion associated with the northward translation of India. Left-lateral faults of the northern Shan Plateau, northern Laos, Thailand, and southern China facilitate extrusion of rocks around the eastern syntaxis of the Himalaya. All of these systems have produced major earthquakes within recorded history and continue to present major seismic hazards in the region.

The 2011 Mineral, VA M5.8 Earthquake Ground Motions and Stress Drop: An Important Contribution to the NGA East Ground Motion Database

Science.gov (United States)

Cramer, C. H.; Kutliroff, J.; Dangkua, D.

2011-12-01

The M5.8 Mineral, Virginia earthquake of August 23, 2011 is the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in eastern North America since the 1988 M5.9 Saguenay, Canada earthquake. Historically, a similar magnitude earthquake occurred on May 31, 1897 at 18:58 UCT in western Virginia west of Roanoke. Paleoseismic evidence for larger magnitude earthquakes has also been found in the central Virginia region. The Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) East project to develop new ground motion prediction equations for stable continental regions (SCRs), including eastern North America (ENA), is ongoing at the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center funded by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Electric Power Research Institute, and the U.S. Department of Energy. The available recordings from the M5.8 Virginia are being added to the NGA East ground motion database. Close in (less than 100 km) strong motion recordings are particularly interesting for both ground motion and stress drop estimates as most close-in broadband seismometers clipped on the mainshock. A preliminary estimate for earthquake corner frequency for the M5.8 Virginia earthquake of ~0.7 Hz has been obtained from a strong motion record 57 km from the mainshock epicenter. For a M5.8 earthquake this suggests a Brune stress drop of ~300 bars for the Virginia event. Very preliminary comparisons using accelerometer data suggest the ground motions from the M5.8 Virginia earthquake agree well with current ENA ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at short periods (PGA, 0.2 s) and are below the GMPEs at longer periods (1.0 s), which is the same relationship seen from other recent M5 ENA earthquakes. We will present observed versus GMPE ground motion comparisons for all the ground motion observations and stress drop estimates from strong motion recordings at distances less than 100 km. A review of the completed NGA East ENA ground motion database will also be provided.

An inverted continental Moho and serpentinization of the forearc mantle.

Science.gov (United States)

Bostock, M G; Hyndman, R D; Rondenay, S; Peacock, S M

2002-05-30

Volatiles that are transported by subducting lithospheric plates to depths greater than 100 km are thought to induce partial melting in the overlying mantle wedge, resulting in arc magmatism and the addition of significant quantities of material to the overlying lithosphere. Asthenospheric flow and upwelling within the wedge produce increased lithospheric temperatures in this back-arc region, but the forearc mantle (in the corner of the wedge) is thought to be significantly cooler. Here we explore the structure of the mantle wedge in the southern Cascadia subduction zone using scattered teleseismic waves recorded on a dense portable array of broadband seismometers. We find very low shear-wave velocities in the cold forearc mantle indicated by the exceptional occurrence of an 'inverted' continental Moho, which reverts to normal polarity seaward of the Cascade arc. This observation provides compelling evidence for a highly hydrated and serpentinized forearc region, consistent with thermal and petrological models of the forearc mantle wedge. This serpentinized material is thought to have low strength and may therefore control the down-dip rupture limit of great thrust earthquakes, as well as the nature of large-scale flow in the mantle wedge.

Tectonics and sedimentary process in the continental talud in Uruguay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Santa Ana, H.; Soto, M.; Morales, E.; Tomasini, J.; Hernandez-Molina, F.; Veroslavsky, G.

2012-01-01

The morphology and evolution of the continental margin of Uruguay is due to the interaction of an important set of sedimentary processes. The contourite and turbiditic are the most significant processes which are associated with the development of submarine canyons as well as the gravitational mass respect to major landslides. These processes generate erosional and depositional features with a direct impact on different areas of application, which have potential environmental risks (gravitational landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis) and potential economic resources

Multiparameter monitoring of short-term earthquake precursors and its physical basis. Implementation in the Kamchatka region

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Pulinets Sergey

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We apply experimental approach of the multiparameter monitoring of short-term earthquake precursors which reliability was confirmed by the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC model created recently [1]. A key element of the model is the process of Ion induced Nucleation (IIN and formation of cluster ions occurring as a result of the ionization of near surface air layer by radon emanating from the Earth's crust within the earthquake preparation zone. This process is similar to the formation of droplet’s embryos for cloud formation under action of galactic cosmic rays. The consequence of this process is the generation of a number of precursors that can be divided into two groups: a thermal and meteorological, and b electromagnetic and ionospheric. We demonstrate elements of prospective monitoring of some strong earthquakes in Kamchatka region and statistical results for the Chemical potential correction parameter for more than 10 years of observations for earthquakes with M≥6. As some experimental attempt, the data of Kamchatka volcanoes monitoring will be demonstrated.

Aseismic blocks and destructive earthquakes in the Aegean

Science.gov (United States)

Stiros, Stathis

2017-04-01

Aseismic areas are not identified only in vast, geologically stable regions, but also within regions of active, intense, distributed deformation such as the Aegean. In the latter, "aseismic blocks" about 200m wide were recognized in the 1990's on the basis of the absence of instrumentally-derived earthquake foci, in contrast to surrounding areas. This pattern was supported by the available historical seismicity data, as well as by geologic evidence. Interestingly, GPS evidence indicates that such blocks are among the areas characterized by small deformation rates relatively to surrounding areas of higher deformation. Still, the largest and most destructive earthquake of the 1990's, the 1995 M6.6 earthquake occurred at the center of one of these "aseismic" zones at the northern part of Greece, found unprotected against seismic hazard. This case was indeed a repeat of the case of the tsunami-associated 1956 Amorgos Island M7.4 earthquake, the largest 20th century event in the Aegean back-arc region: the 1956 earthquake occurred at the center of a geologically distinct region (Cyclades Massif in Central Aegean), till then assumed aseismic. Interestingly, after 1956, the overall idea of aseismic regions remained valid, though a "promontory" of earthquake prone-areas intruding into the aseismic central Aegean was assumed. Exploitation of the archaeological excavation evidence and careful, combined analysis of historical and archaeological data and other palaeoseismic, mostly coastal data, indicated that destructive and major earthquakes have left their traces in previously assumed aseismic blocks. In the latter earthquakes typically occur with relatively low recurrence intervals, >200-300 years, much smaller than in adjacent active areas. Interestingly, areas assumed a-seismic in antiquity are among the most active in the last centuries, while areas hit by major earthquakes in the past are usually classified as areas of low seismic risk in official maps. Some reasons

Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5

Science.gov (United States)

Hirota, Nagio; Takayabu, Yukari

2013-04-01

Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5 Nagio Hirota1,2 and Yukari N. Takayabu2 (1) National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) (2) Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), the University of Tokyo Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions by CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs are evaluated, in comparison with GPCP(V2.2), CMAP(V0911), daily gridded gauge data APHRODITE. Surface temperature, cloud radiative forcing, and atmospheric circulations are also compared with observations of CRU-UEA, CERES, and ERA-interim/ERA40/JRA reanalysis data. It is shown that many CMIP5 models underestimate and overestimate summer precipitation over West and East Eurasia, respectively. These precipitation biases correspond to moisture transport associated with a cyclonic circulation bias over the whole continent of Eurasia. Meanwhile, many models underestimate cloud over the Eurasian continent, and associated shortwave cloud radiative forcing result in a significant warm bias. Evaporation feedback amplify the warm bias over West Eurasia. These processes consistently explain the precipitation biases over the Erasian continent in summer. We also examined reproducibility of winter precipitation, but robust results are not obtained yet due to the large uncertainty in observation associated with the adjustment of snow measurement in windy condition. Better observational data sets are necessary for further model validation. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the PMM RA of JAXA, Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, and Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (A-1201) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Analysis of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010

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W. F. Peng

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies that occurred before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC from the global ionosphere map (GIM. We analyze the possible causes of the ionospheric anomalies based on the space environment and magnetic field status. Results show that some anomalies are related to the earthquakes. By analyzing the time of occurrence, duration, and spatial distribution of these ionospheric anomalies, a number of new conclusions are drawn, as follows: earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies are not bound to appear; both positive and negative anomalies are likely to occur; and the earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies discussed in the current study occurred 0–2 days before the associated earthquakes and in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 12:00 and 20:00 local time. Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies occur mainly in areas near the epicenter. However, the maximum affected area in the ionosphere does not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake. The directions deviating from the epicenters do not follow a fixed rule. The corresponding ionospheric effects can also be observed in the magnetically conjugated region. However, the probability of the anomalies appearance and extent of the anomalies in the magnetically conjugated region are smaller than the anomalies near the epicenter. Deep-focus earthquakes may also exhibit very significant pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies.

Evaluation of 0 ≤ M ≤ 8 earthquake data sets in African – Asian region during 1966–2015

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Theophilus Aanuoluwa Adagunodo

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This article evaluates the occurrence of 0 ≤ M ≤ 8 earthquake data sets for the period of 50 years (that is, January 1, 1966 to December 31, 2015 in African and Western Asia region. It is bounded by latitude 40° S to 40° N and longitude 30° W to 60° E with the focal depth of 0–700 km. Seventy seven thousand, six hundred and ninety-six data points were presented for the analysis. The data used were extracted from earthquake catalog of Advanced National Seismic system via http://quake.geo.berkeley.edu/cnss/, an official website of the Northern California Earthquake Data Centre, USA. Each datum comprised the earthquake occurrence date, time of the earthquake occurrence, epicenter’s coordinates, focal depth and magnitude. The Gutenberg-Richter’s relationship being the longest observed empirical relationship in seismology, analysis of variance and time series were used to analyze the seismicity of the study area. Annual distributions of earthquake occurrence based on magnitude variations with the limit 0 ≤ M ≤ 8 were presented. The two constants a and b in the Gutenberg-Richter’s equation, magnitude of completeness (MC adjusted R-Square and F-value for the period of 1966–1975, 1976–1985, 1986–1995, 1996–2005, 2006–2015, and the entire period of investigation ranging from 1966 to 2015 were determined so as to investigate the variations of these parameters on earthquake occurrence over time. The histograms of earthquake occurrence against magnitude of earthquakes for the selected years (1966–1975, 1976–1985, 1986–1995, 1996–2005, 2006–2015, and 1966–2015, and the decadal frequency distributions of earthquake occurrence were also plotted. The focal depth occurrence for each magnitude bins (0–0.9, 1–1.9, 2–2.9, 3–3.9, 4–4.9, 5–5.9, 6–6.9, 7–7.9, 8–8.9 were grouped into shallow, intermediate, and deep depths ranging from 0 to 70, 71 to 300, and 301 to 700 km as being used in seismology. The

Analytical investigations of the earthquake resistance of the support base of an oil-gas platform

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glagovskii, V. B.; Kassirova, N. A.; Turchina, O. A.; Finagenov, O. M.; Tsirukhin, N. A. [JSC ' VNIIG im. B. E. Vedeneeva' (Russian Federation)

2012-01-15

In designing stationary oil-gas recovery platforms on the continental shelf, the need arises to compute the estimated strength of their support base during seismic events. This paper is devoted to this estimation. The paper examines a structure consisting of the superstructure of an oil-gas platform and its gravity-type base. It is possible to install earthquake-insulating supports between them. Calculations performed for the design earthquake indicated that the design of the gravity base can resist a seismic effect without special additional measures. During the maximum design earthquake, moreover, significant stresses may develop in the zone of base where the columns are connected to the upper slab of the caisson. In that case, the earthquake insulation considered for the top of the platform becomes critical.

Analytical investigations of the earthquake resistance of the support base of an oil-gas platform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glagovskii, V. B.; Kassirova, N. A.; Turchina, O. A.; Finagenov, O. M.; Tsirukhin, N. A.

2012-01-01

In designing stationary oil-gas recovery platforms on the continental shelf, the need arises to compute the estimated strength of their support base during seismic events. This paper is devoted to this estimation. The paper examines a structure consisting of the superstructure of an oil-gas platform and its gravity-type base. It is possible to install earthquake-insulating supports between them. Calculations performed for the design earthquake indicated that the design of the gravity base can resist a seismic effect without special additional measures. During the maximum design earthquake, moreover, significant stresses may develop in the zone of base where the columns are connected to the upper slab of the caisson. In that case, the earthquake insulation considered for the top of the platform becomes critical.

Aftershocks of the India Republic Day Earthquake: the MAEC/ISTAR Temporary Seismograph Network

Science.gov (United States)

Bodin, P.; Horton, S.; Johnston, A.; Patterson, G.; Bollwerk, J.; Rydelek, P.; Steiner, G.; McGoldrick, C.; Budhbhatti, K. P.; Shah, R.; Macwan, N.

2001-05-01

The MW=7.7 Republic Day (26 January, 2001) earthquake on the Kachchh in western India initiated a strong sequence of small aftershocks. Seventeen days following the mainshock, we deployed a network of portable digital event recorders as a cooperative project of the Mid America Earthquake Center in the US and the Institute for Scientific and Technological Advanced Research. Our network consisted of 8 event-triggered Kinemetrics K2 seismographs with 6 data channels (3 accelerometer, 3 Mark L-28/3d seismometer) sampled at 200 Hz, and one continuously-recording Guralp CMG40TD broad-band seismometer sampled at 220 Hz. This network was in place for 18 days. Underlying our network deployment was the notion that because of its tectonic and geologic setting the Republic Day earthquake and its aftershocks might have source and/or propagation characteristics common to earthquakes in stable continental plate-interiors rather than those on plate boundaries or within continental mobile belts. Thus, our goals were to provide data that could be used to compare the Republic Day earthquake with other earthquakes. In particular, the objectives of our network deployment were: (1) to characterize the spatial distribution and occurrence rates of aftershocks, (2) to examine source characteristics of the aftershocks (stress-drops, focal mechanisms), (3) to study the effect of deep unconsolidated sediment on wave propagation, and (4) to determine if other faults (notably the Allah Bundh) were simultaneously active. Most of our sites were on Jurassic bedrock, and all were either free-field, or on the floor of light structures built on rock or with a thin soil cover. However, one of our stations was on a section of unconsolidated sediments hundreds of meters thick adjacent to a site that was subjected to shaking-induced sediment liquefaction during the mainshock. The largest aftershock reported by global networks was an MW=5.9 event on January 28, prior to our deployment. The largest

Comparison of aftershock sequences between 1975 Haicheng earthquake and 1976 Tangshan earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, B.

2017-12-01

The 1975 ML 7.3 Haicheng earthquake and the 1976 ML 7.8 Tangshan earthquake occurred in the same tectonic unit. There are significant differences in spatial-temporal distribution, number of aftershocks and time duration for the aftershock sequence followed by these two main shocks. As we all know, aftershocks could be triggered by the regional seismicity change derived from the main shock, which was caused by the Coulomb stress perturbation. Based on the rate- and state- dependent friction law, we quantitative estimated the possible aftershock time duration with a combination of seismicity data, and compared the results from different approaches. The results indicate that, aftershock time durations from the Tangshan main shock is several times of that form the Haicheng main shock. This can be explained by the significant relationship between aftershock time duration and earthquake nucleation history, normal stressand shear stress loading rateon the fault. In fact the obvious difference of earthquake nucleation history from these two main shocks is the foreshocks. 1975 Haicheng earthquake has clear and long foreshocks, while 1976 Tangshan earthquake did not have clear foreshocks. In that case, abundant foreshocks may mean a long and active nucleation process that may have changed (weakened) the rocks in the source regions, so they should have a shorter aftershock sequences for the reason that stress in weak rocks decay faster.

GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region

Science.gov (United States)

Kamp, Ulrich; Growley, Benjamin J.; Khattak, Ghazanfar A.; Owen, Lewis A.

2008-11-01

The Mw 7.6 October 8, 2005 Kashmir earthquake triggered several thousand landslides throughout the Himalaya of northern Pakistan and India. These were concentrated in six different geomorphic-geologic-anthropogenic settings. A spatial database, which included 2252 landslides, was developed and analyzed using ASTER satellite imagery and geographical information system (GIS) technology. A multi-criterion evaluation was applied to determine the significance of event-controlling parameters in triggering the landslides. The parameters included lithology, faults, slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, land cover, rivers and roads. The results showed four classes of landslide susceptibility. Furthermore, they indicated that lithology had the strongest influence on landsliding, particularly when the rock is highly fractured, such as in shale, slate, clastic sediments, and limestone and dolomite. Moreover, the proximity of the landslides to faults, rivers, and roads was also an important factor in helping to initiate failures. In addition, landslides occurred particularly in moderate elevations on south facing slopes. Shrub land, grassland, and also agricultural land were highly susceptible to failures, while forested slopes had few landslides. One-third of the study area was highly or very highly susceptible to future landsliding and requires immediate mitigation action. The rest of the region had a low or moderate susceptibility to landsliding and remains relatively stable. This study supports the view that (1) earthquake-triggered landslides are concentrated in specific zones associated with event-controlling parameters; and (2) in the western Himalaya deforestation and road construction contributed significantly to landsliding during and shortly after earthquakes.

Seismic risk control of nuclear power plants using seismic protection systems in stable continental regions: The UK case

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Medel-Vera, Carlos, E-mail: cbmedel@uc.cl; Ji, Tianjian, E-mail: tianjian.ji@manchester.ac.uk

2016-10-15

Highlights: • Strategies to reduce seismic risk for nuclear power stations in the UK are analysed. • Efficiency of devices to reduce risk: viscous-based higher than hysteretic-based. • Scenario-based incremental dynamic analysis is introduced for use in nuclear stations. • Surfaces of seismic unacceptable performance for nuclear stations are proposed. - Abstract: This article analyses three different strategies on the use of seismic protection systems (SPS) for nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the UK. Such strategies are based on the experience reported elsewhere of seismically protected nuclear reactor buildings in other stable continental regions. Analyses are conducted using an example of application based on a 1000 MW Pressurised Water Reactor building located in a representative UK nuclear site. The efficiency of the SPS is probabilistically assessed to achieve possible risk reduction for both rock and soil sites in comparison with conventionally constructed NPPs. Further analyses are conducted to study how the reduction of risk changes when all controlling scenarios of the site are included. This is done by introducing a scenario-based incremental dynamic analysis aimed at the generation of surfaces for unacceptable performance of NPPs as a function of earthquake magnitude (M{sub w}) and distance-to-site (R{sub epi}). General guidelines are proposed to potentially use SPS in future NPPs in the UK. Such recommendations can be used by the British nuclear industry in the future development of 12 new reactors to be built in the next two decades to generate 16 GWe of new nuclear capacity.

Earthquake activity along the Himalayan orogenic belt

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2017-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

Spatially limited mud turbidites on the Cascadia margin: segmented earthquake ruptures?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Goldfinger

2013-08-01

Full Text Available A series of 23 thin, mostly mud-silt turbidites are found interspersed between larger, well-dated and regionally correlated paleoseismic sandy turbidites that extend along most of the Cascadia margin, northwestern United States. Investigation of the structure, distribution, and sedimentology of these thin mud-silt units supports the interpretation of these units as turbidites originating on the continental slope. Interpretation of mud turbidites is inhibited by bioturbation and lower response to analytical and imaging techniques; nevertheless most of the 23 interpreted beds exhibit most of the characteristics of coarser turbidites. These characteristics include sharp bases, fining upward sequences, darker color, increased gamma and CT density and magnetic susceptibility relative to the hemipelagic background, sparse microfossils, high lithic content, and evidence of transport from marine sources on the continental slope. New core data from sites south of Rogue Apron indicate that sandy and muddy turbidites may be correlated at least 150 km south to Trinidad Plunge Pool for the period ~ 4800 yr BP to present. Many of the mud turbidites initially described at Rogue Apron coarsen southward, becoming sandy turbidites. High-resolution Chirp seismic profiles reveal that turbidite stratigraphy along the base of the southern Cascadia continental slope is continuous, with little variation for at least 240 km along strike. The Chirp data show that turbidites along the Cascadia base of slope are ubiquitous, and likely not sourced solely from submarine canyon mouths, but may also have been delivered to the proximal abyssal plain as sheet flows from the open continental slope and coalescing local sources. Regional stratigraphy reveals that hemipelagic sedimentation rates and total Holocene turbidite thickness and mass are similar at widely separated sites, yet the total thickness of the Holocene section is greater by a factor of two in southern Cascadia

Characterization of tsunamigenic earthquake in Java region based on seismic wave calculation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pribadi, Sugeng, E-mail: sugengpribadimsc@gmail.com [Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Geofisika, Jl Angkasa I No. 2 Jakarta (Indonesia); Afnimar,; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan [Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)

2014-03-24

This study is to characterize the source mechanism of tsunamigenic earthquake based on seismic wave calculation. The source parameter used are the ratio (Θ) between the radiated seismic energy (E) and seismic moment (M{sub o}), moment magnitude (M{sub W}), rupture duration (T{sub o}) and focal mechanism. These determine the types of tsunamigenic earthquake and tsunami earthquake. We calculate the formula using the teleseismic wave signal processing with the initial phase of P wave with bandpass filter 0.001 Hz to 5 Hz. The amount of station is 84 broadband seismometer with far distance of 30° to 90°. The 2 June 1994 Banyuwangi earthquake with M{sub W}=7.8 and the 17 July 2006 Pangandaran earthquake with M{sub W}=7.7 include the criteria as a tsunami earthquake which distributed about ratio Θ=−6.1, long rupture duration To>100 s and high tsunami H>7 m. The 2 September 2009 Tasikmalaya earthquake with M{sub W}=7.2, Θ=−5.1 and To=27 s which characterized as a small tsunamigenic earthquake.

Characterization of tsunamigenic earthquake in Java region based on seismic wave calculation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pribadi, Sugeng; Afnimar,; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan

2014-01-01

This study is to characterize the source mechanism of tsunamigenic earthquake based on seismic wave calculation. The source parameter used are the ratio (Θ) between the radiated seismic energy (E) and seismic moment (M o ), moment magnitude (M W ), rupture duration (T o ) and focal mechanism. These determine the types of tsunamigenic earthquake and tsunami earthquake. We calculate the formula using the teleseismic wave signal processing with the initial phase of P wave with bandpass filter 0.001 Hz to 5 Hz. The amount of station is 84 broadband seismometer with far distance of 30° to 90°. The 2 June 1994 Banyuwangi earthquake with M W =7.8 and the 17 July 2006 Pangandaran earthquake with M W =7.7 include the criteria as a tsunami earthquake which distributed about ratio Θ=−6.1, long rupture duration To>100 s and high tsunami H>7 m. The 2 September 2009 Tasikmalaya earthquake with M W =7.2, Θ=−5.1 and To=27 s which characterized as a small tsunamigenic earthquake

Surface sediment remobilization triggered by earthquakes in the Nankai forearc region

Science.gov (United States)

Okutsu, N.; Ashi, J.; Yamaguchi, A.; Irino, T.; Ikehara, K.; Kanamatsu, T.; Suganuma, Y.; Murayama, M.

2017-12-01

Submarine landslides triggered by earthquakes generate turbidity currents (e.g. Piper et al., 1988; 1999). Recently several studies report that the remobilization of the surface sediment triggered by earthquakes can also generate turbidity currents. However, studies that proposed such process are still limited (e.g. Ikehara et al., 2016; Mchugh et al., 2016; Moernaut et al., 2017). The purpose of this study is to examine those sedimentary processes in the Nankai forearc region, SW Japan using sedimentary records. We collected 46 cm-long multiple core (MC01) and a 6.7 m-long piston core (PC03) from the small basin during the R/V Shinsei Maru KS-14-8 cruise. The small confined basin, which is our study site, block the paths of direct sediment supply from river-submarine canyon system. The sampling site is located at the ENE-WSW elongated basin between the accretionary prism and the forearc basin off Kumano without direct sediment supply from river-submarine canyon system. The basin exhibits a confined basin that captures almost of sediments supplied from outside. Core samples are mainly composed of silty clay or very fine sand. Cs-137 measurement conducted on a MC01 core shows constantly high value at the upper 17 cm section and no detection below it. Moreover, the sedimentary structure is similar to fine-grained turbidite described by Stow and Shanmgam (1980), we interpret the upper 17 cm of MC01 as muddy turbidite. Grain size distribution and magnetic susceptibility also agree to this interpretation. Rapid sediment deposition after 1950 is assumed and the most likely event is the 2004 off Kii peninsula earthquakes (Mw=6.6-7.4). By calculation from extent of provenance area, which are estimated by paleocurrent analysis and bathymetric map, and thickness of turbidite layer we conclude that surface 1 cm of slope sediments may be remobilized by the 2004 earthquakes. Muddy turbidites are also identified in a PC03 core. The radiocarbon age gap of 170 years obtained

Earthquake evaluation of a substation network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuda, E.N.; Savage, W.U.; Williams, K.K.; Laguens, G.C.

1991-01-01

The impact of the occurrence of a large, damaging earthquake on a regional electric power system is a function of the geographical distribution of strong shaking, the vulnerability of various types of electric equipment located within the affected region, and operational resources available to maintain or restore electric system functionality. Experience from numerous worldwide earthquake occurrences has shown that seismic damage to high-voltage substation equipment is typically the reason for post-earthquake loss of electric service. In this paper, the authors develop and apply a methodology to analyze earthquake impacts on Pacific Gas and Electric Company's (PG and E's) high-voltage electric substation network in central and northern California. The authors' objectives are to identify and prioritize ways to reduce the potential impact of future earthquakes on our electric system, refine PG and E's earthquake preparedness and response plans to be more realistic, and optimize seismic criteria for future equipment purchases for the electric system

Chile Earthquake: U.S. and International Response

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-11

most regions far from the epicenter did not experience any serious damage. A tsunami caused significant damage to the city of Hilo , Hawaii ...Tsunami Warning Center for Hawaii , Japan, and other regions bordering the Pacific Ocean that may have been vulnerable to a damaging tsunami, although...earthquake. Why the 1960 earthquake generated a tsunami that caused damage and fatalities in Hawaii , Japan, and the Philippines while the 2010 earthquake did

Using Cross-Correlation Methods to Characterize Earthquakes Associated with the Socorro Magma Body

Science.gov (United States)

Vieceli, R.; Bilek, S. L.; Worthington, L. L.; Schmandt, B.; Aster, R. C.; Dodge, D. A.; Pyle, M. L.; Walter, W. R.

2017-12-01

The Socorro Magma Body (SMB), a thin, sill-like body with a top surface-depth of 19 km situated within the Rio Grande Rift in central New Mexico, is one of the largest recognized continental mid-crustal magma bodies in the world by area. SMB-associated inflation leads to slow regional uplift of a few mm/yr and has been linked to longstanding concentrated shallow seismicity (history. In February 2015 seismic data were collected above the northern and most rapidly uplifting region of the SMB with a densely spaced temporary array, consisting of seven broadband and 804 short period Fairfield nodal vertical component seismographs. The total array area was 50 x 25 km with typical node spacing of 300 m along a road network. In this study, we exploit all available seismic network data in a cross-correlation framework developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to detect events and characterize earthquake swarms, clusters, and patterns occurring over the last 15 years. We use a power detector to build an initial catalog of small magnitude earthquakes, including 33 events (M <= 2.5) recorded during the February 2015 deployment, as templates to detect additional events. We also develop an updated shallow velocity model for the region and refine event hypocenters using Bayesloc, a bayesian, multiple-event location algorithm. This enhanced seismicity catalog will be utilized in interpreting the recent seismicity of the SMB. LLNL-ABS-735529

Regional moment: Magnitude relations for earthquakes and explosions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patton, H.J.; Walter, W.R. (Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States))

1993-02-19

The authors present M[sub o]:m[sub b] relations using m[sub b](P[sub n]) and m[sub b](L[sub g]) for earthquakes and explosions occurring in tectonic and stable areas. The observations for m[sub b](P[sub n]) range from about 3 to 6 and show excellent separation between earthquakes and explosions on M[sub o]:m[sub b] plots, independent of the magnitude. The scatter in M[sub o]:M[sub b] observations for NTS explosions is small compared to the earthquake data. The M[sub o]:m[sub b](L[sub g]) data for Soviet explosions overlay the observations for US explosions. These results, and the small scatter for NTS explosions, suggest weak dependence of M[sub o]:m[sub b] relations on emplacement media. A simple theoretical model is developed which matches all these observations. The model uses scaling similarity and conservation of energy to provide a physical link between seismic moment and a broadband seismic magnitude. Three factors, radiation pattern, material property, and apparent stress, contribute to the separation between earthquakes and explosions. This theoretical separation is independent of broadband magnitude. For US explosions in different media, the material property and apparent stress contributions are shown to compensate for one another, supporting the observations that M[sub o]:M[sub b] is nearly independent of source geology. 19 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

Application of the region-time-length algorithm to study of earthquake precursors in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar borders

Science.gov (United States)

Puangjaktha, P.; Pailoplee, S.

2018-04-01

In order to examine the precursory seismic quiescence of upcoming hazardous earthquakes, the seismicity data available in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar borders was analyzed using the Region-Time-Length (RTL) algorithm based statistical technique. The utilized earthquake data were obtained from the International Seismological Centre. Thereafter, the homogeneity and completeness of the catalogue were improved. After performing iterative tests with different values of the r0 and t0 parameters, those of r0 = 120 km and t0 = 2 yr yielded reasonable estimates of the anomalous RTL scores, in both temporal variation and spatial distribution, of a few years prior to five out of eight strong-to-major recognized earthquakes. Statistical evaluation of both the correlation coefficient and stochastic process for the RTL were checked and revealed that the RTL score obtained here excluded artificial or random phenomena. Therefore, the prospective earthquake sources mentioned here should be recognized and effective mitigation plans should be provided.

1/f and the Earthquake Problem: Scaling constraints that facilitate operational earthquake forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

2012-12-01

The difficulty of forecasting earthquakes can fundamentally be attributed to the self-similar, or "1/f", nature of seismic sequences. Specifically, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their magnitude m, or more accurately to their scalar moment M. With respect to this "1/f problem," it can be argued that catalog selection (or equivalently, determining catalog constraints) constitutes the most significant challenge to seismicity based earthquake forecasting. Here, we address and introduce a potential solution to this most daunting problem. Specifically, we introduce a framework to constrain, or partition, an earthquake catalog (a study region) in order to resolve local seismicity. In particular, we combine Gutenberg-Richter (GR), rupture length, and Omori scaling with various empirical measurements to relate the size (spatial and temporal extents) of a study area (or bins within a study area) to the local earthquake magnitude potential - the magnitude of earthquake the region is expected to experience. From this, we introduce a new type of time dependent hazard map for which the tuning parameter space is nearly fully constrained. In a similar fashion, by combining various scaling relations and also by incorporating finite extents (rupture length, area, and duration) as constraints, we develop a method to estimate the Omori (temporal) and spatial aftershock decay parameters as a function of the parent earthquake's magnitude m. From this formulation, we develop an ETAS type model that overcomes many point-source limitations of contemporary ETAS. These models demonstrate promise with respect to earthquake forecasting applications. Moreover, the methods employed suggest a general framework whereby earthquake and other complex-system, 1/f type, problems can be constrained from scaling relations and finite extents.; Record-breaking hazard map of southern California, 2012-08-06. "Warm" colors indicate local acceleration (elevated hazard

Centrality in earthquake multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Lotfi, Nastaran; Darooneh, Amir Hossein; Rodrigues, Francisco A.

2018-06-01

Seismic time series has been mapped as a complex network, where a geographical region is divided into square cells that represent the nodes and connections are defined according to the sequence of earthquakes. In this paper, we map a seismic time series to a temporal network, described by a multiplex network, and characterize the evolution of the network structure in terms of the eigenvector centrality measure. We generalize previous works that considered the single layer representation of earthquake networks. Our results suggest that the multiplex representation captures better earthquake activity than methods based on single layer networks. We also verify that the regions with highest seismological activities in Iran and California can be identified from the network centrality analysis. The temporal modeling of seismic data provided here may open new possibilities for a better comprehension of the physics of earthquakes.

Coulomb Failure Stress Accumulation in Nepal After the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake: Testing Earthquake Triggering Hypothesis and Evaluating Seismic Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, N.; Niu, F.

2017-12-01

A Mw 7.8 earthquake struck Gorkha, Nepal, on April 5, 2015, resulting in more than 8000 deaths and 3.5 million homeless. The earthquake initiated 70km west of Kathmandu and propagated eastward, rupturing an area of approximately 150km by 60km in size. However, the earthquake failed to fully rupture the locked fault beneath the Himalaya, suggesting that the region south of Kathmandu and west of the current rupture are still locked and a much more powerful earthquake might occur in future. Therefore, the seismic hazard of the unruptured region is of great concern. In this study, we investigated the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) accumulation on the unruptured fault transferred by the Gorkha earthquake and some nearby historical great earthquakes. First, we calculated the co-seismic CFS changes of the Gorkha earthquake on the nodal planes of 16 large aftershocks to quantitatively examine whether they were brought closer to failure by the mainshock. It is shown that at least 12 of the 16 aftershocks were encouraged by an increase of CFS of 0.1-3 MPa. The correspondence between the distribution of off-fault aftershocks and the increased CFS pattern also validates the applicability of the earthquake triggering hypothesis in the thrust regime of Nepal. With the validation as confidence, we calculated the co-seismic CFS change on the locked region imparted by the Gorkha earthquake and historical great earthquakes. A newly proposed ramp-flat-ramp-flat fault geometry model was employed, and the source parameters of historical earthquakes were computed with the empirical scaling relationship. A broad region south of the Kathmandu and west of the current rupture were shown to be positively stressed with CFS change roughly ranging between 0.01 and 0.5 MPa. The maximum of CFS increase (>1MPa) was found in the updip segment south of the current rupture, implying a high seismic hazard. Since the locked region may be additionally stressed by the post-seismic relaxation of the lower

Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

Seismicity map tools for earthquake studies

Science.gov (United States)

Boucouvalas, Anthony; Kaskebes, Athanasios; Tselikas, Nikos

2014-05-01

We report on the development of new and online set of tools for use within Google Maps, for earthquake research. We demonstrate this server based and online platform (developped with PHP, Javascript, MySQL) with the new tools using a database system with earthquake data. The platform allows us to carry out statistical and deterministic analysis on earthquake data use of Google Maps and plot various seismicity graphs. The tool box has been extended to draw on the map line segments, multiple straight lines horizontally and vertically as well as multiple circles, including geodesic lines. The application is demonstrated using localized seismic data from the geographic region of Greece as well as other global earthquake data. The application also offers regional segmentation (NxN) which allows the studying earthquake clustering, and earthquake cluster shift within the segments in space. The platform offers many filters such for plotting selected magnitude ranges or time periods. The plotting facility allows statistically based plots such as cumulative earthquake magnitude plots and earthquake magnitude histograms, calculation of 'b' etc. What is novel for the platform is the additional deterministic tools. Using the newly developed horizontal and vertical line and circle tools we have studied the spatial distribution trends of many earthquakes and we here show for the first time the link between Fibonacci Numbers and spatiotemporal location of some earthquakes. The new tools are valuable for examining visualizing trends in earthquake research as it allows calculation of statistics as well as deterministic precursors. We plan to show many new results based on our newly developed platform.

Radiated Seismic Energy of Earthquakes in the South-Central Region of the Gulf of California, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Castro, Raúl R.; Mendoza-Camberos, Antonio; Pérez-Vertti, Arturo

2018-05-01

We estimated the radiated seismic energy (ES) of 65 earthquakes located in the south-central region of the Gulf of California. Most of these events occurred along active transform faults that define the Pacific-North America plate boundary and have magnitudes between M3.3 and M5.9. We corrected the spectral records for attenuation using nonparametric S-wave attenuation functions determined with the whole data set. The path effects were isolated from the seismic source using a spectral inversion. We computed radiated seismic energy of the earthquakes by integrating the square velocity source spectrum and estimated their apparent stresses. We found that most events have apparent stress between 3 × 10-4 and 3 MPa. Model independent estimates of the ratio between seismic energy and moment (ES/M0) indicates that this ratio is independent of earthquake size. We conclude that in general the apparent stress is low (σa < 3 MPa) in the south-central and southern Gulf of California.

The severity of an earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

,

1997-01-01

The severity of an earthquake can be expressed in terms of both intensity and magnitude. However, the two terms are quite different, and they are often confused. Intensity is based on the observed effects of ground shaking on people, buildings, and natural features. It varies from place to place within the disturbed region depending on the location of the observer with respect to the earthquake epicenter. Magnitude is related to the amount of seismic energy released at the hypocenter of the earthquake. It is based on the amplitude of the earthquake waves recorded on instruments

Microseismicity in Southern South Island, New Zealand: Implications for the Mechanism of Crustal Deformation Adjacent to a Major Continental Transform

Science.gov (United States)

Warren-Smith, Emily; Lamb, Simon; Stern, Tim A.; Smith, Euan

2017-11-01

Shallow (convergent Australian-Pacific plate boundary zone. It has recently been proposed that continental convergence here is accommodated by oblique slip on a low-angle detachment that underlies the region, and as such, forms a previously unrecognized mode of oblique continental convergence. We test this model using microseismicity, presenting a new, 15 month high-resolution microearthquake catalog for the Southern Lakes and northern Fiordland regions adjacent to the Alpine Fault. We determine the spatial distribution, moment release, and style of microearthquakes and show that seismicity in the continental lithosphere is predominantly shallower than 20 km, in a zone up to 150 km wide, but less frequent deeper microseismicity extending into the mantle, at depths of up to 100 km is also observed. The geometry of the subducted oceanic Australian plate is well imaged, with a well-defined Benioff zone to depths of 150 km. In detail, the depth of continental microseismicity shows considerable variation, with no clear link with major active surface faults, but rather represents diffuse cracking in response to the ambient stress release. The moment release rate is 0.1% of that required to accommodate relative plate convergence, and the azimuth of the principal horizontal axis of contraction accommodated by microseismicity is 120°, 15-20° clockwise of the horizontal axis of contractional strain rate observed geodetically. Thus, short-term microseismicity, independent of knowledge of intermittent large-magnitude earthquakes, may not be a good guide to the rate and orientation of long-term deformation but is an indicator of the instantaneous state of stress and potential distribution of finite deformation. We show that both the horizontal and vertical spatial distribution of microseismicity can be explained in terms of a low-angle detachment model.

Teleseismic and regional data analysis for estimating depth, mechanism and rupture process of the 3 April 2017 MW 6.5 Botswana earthquake and its aftershock (5 April 2017, MW 4.5)

Science.gov (United States)

Letort, J.; Guilhem Trilla, A.; Ford, S. R.; Sèbe, O.; Causse, M.; Cotton, F.; Campillo, M.; Letort, G.

2017-12-01

We constrain the source, depth, and rupture process of the Botswana earthquake of April 3, 2017, as well as its largest aftershock (5 April 2017, Mw 4.5). This earthquake is the largest recorded event (Mw 6.5) in the East African rift system since 1970, making one important case study to better understand source processes in stable continental regions. For the two events an automatic cepstrum analysis (Letort et al., 2015) is first applied on respectively 215 and 219 teleseismic records, in order to detect depth phase arrivals (pP, sP) in the P-coda. Coherent detections of depth phases for different azimuths allow us to estimate the hypocentral depths respectively at 28 and 23 km, suggesting that the events are located in the lower crust. A same cepstrum analysis is conducted on five other earthquakes with mb>4 in this area (from 2002 to 2017), and confirms a deep crustal seismicity cluster (around 20-30 km). The source mechanisms are then characterized using a joint inversion method by fitting both regional long-period surface-waves and teleseismic high-frequency body-waves. Combining regional and teleseismic data (as well as systematic comparisons between theoretical and observed regional surface-waves dispersion curves prior to the inversion) allows us to decrease epistemic uncertainties due to lack of regional data and poor knowledge about the local velocity structure. Focal mechanisms are both constrained as normal faulting with a northwest trending, and hypocentral depths are confirmed at 28 and 24 km. Finally, in order to study the mainshock rupture process, we originally apply a kymograph analysis method (an image processing method, commonly used in the field of cell biology for identifying motions of molecular motors, e.g. Mangeol et al., 2016). Here, the kymograph allows us to better identify high-frequency teleseismic P-arrivals inside the P-coda by tracking both reflected depth phase and direct P-wave arrivals radiated from secondary sources during the

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

KAUST Repository

Laruelle, G. G.; Dü rr, H. H.; Lauerwald, R.; Hartmann, J.; Slomp, C. P.; Goossens, N.; Regnier, P. A. G.

2013-01-01

Past characterizations of the land-ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments) or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems). Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation) and 149 sub-units (COSCATs). Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric profiles. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air-water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies. © 2013 Author(s).

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. G. Laruelle

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Past characterizations of the land–ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems. Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation and 149 sub-units (COSCATs. Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric profiles. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air–water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies.

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

KAUST Repository

Laruelle, G. G.

2012-10-04

Past characterizations of the land–ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments) or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems). Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation) and 149 sub-units (COSCATs). Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric pro- files. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air–water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies.

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

KAUST Repository

Laruelle, G. G.

2013-05-29

Past characterizations of the land-ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments) or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and distal continental margins (LMEs: large marine ecosystems). Here, we present a global-scale coastal segmentation, composed of three consistent levels, that includes the whole aquatic continuum with its riverine, estuarine and shelf sea components. Our work delineates comprehensive ensembles by harmonizing previous segmentations and typologies in order to retain the most important physical characteristics of both the land and shelf areas. The proposed multi-scale segmentation results in a distribution of global exorheic watersheds, estuaries and continental shelf seas among 45 major zones (MARCATS: MARgins and CATchments Segmentation) and 149 sub-units (COSCATs). Geographic and hydrologic parameters such as the surface area, volume and freshwater residence time are calculated for each coastal unit as well as different hypsometric profiles. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air-water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies. © 2013 Author(s).

Repeating ice-earthquakes beneath David Glacier from the 2012-2015 TAMNNET array

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, J. I.; Peng, Z.; Hansen, S. E.

2017-12-01

The continent of Antarctica has approximately the same surface area as the continental United States, though we know significantly less about its underlying geology and seismic activity. In recent years, improvements in seismic instrumentation, battery technology, and field deployment practices have allowed for continuous broadband stations throughout the dark Antarctic winter. We utilize broadband seismic data from a recent experiment (TAMNNET), which was originally proposed as a structural seismology experiment, for seismic event detection. Our target is to address fundamental questions about regional-scale crustal and environmental seismicity in the study region that comprises the Transantarctic Mountain area of Victoria and Oates Land. We identify most seismicity emanating from David Glacier, upstream of the Drygalski Ice Tongue, which has been documented by several other studies. In order to improve the catalog completeness for the David Glacier area, we utilize a matched-filter technique to identify potential missing earthquakes that may not have been originally detected. This technique utilizes existing cataloged waveforms as templates to scan through continuous data and to identify repeating or nearby earthquakes. With a more robust catalog, we evaluate relative changes in icequake positions, recurrence intervals, and other first-order information. In addition, we attempt to further refine locations of other regional seismicity using a variety of methods including body and surface wave polarization, beamforming, surface wave dispersion, and other seismological methods. This project highlights the usefulness of archiving raw datasets (i.e., passive seismic continuous data), so that researchers may apply new algorithms or techniques to test hypotheses not originally or specifically targeted by the original experimental design.

A new perspective on the generation of the 2016 M6.4 Meilung earthquake, southwestern Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

In order to investigate the likely generation mechanism of the 2016 M6.4 Meilung earthquake, a large number of high-quality travel times from P- and S-wave source-receiver pairs are used jointly in this study to invert three-dimensional (3-D) seismic velocity (Vp, Vs) and Poisson's ratio structures at high resolution. We also calculated crack density, saturate fracture, and bulk-sound velocity from our inverted Vp, Vs, and s models. In this way, multi-geophysical parameter imaging revealed that the 2016 Meilung earthquake occurred along a distinctive edge portion exhibiting high-to-low variations in these parameters in both horizontal and vertical directions across the hypocenter. We consider that a slow velocity and high-Poisson ratio body that has high-crack density and somewhat high-saturate fracture anomalies above the hypocenter under the coastal plain represents fluids contained in the young fold-and-thrust belt relative to the passive Asian continental margin in southwestern Taiwan. Intriguing, a continuous low Vp and Vs zone with high Poisson ratio, crack density and saturate fracture anomalies across the Laonung and Chishan faults is also clearly imaged in the northwestern upper crust beneath the coastal plain and western foothills as far as the southeastern lower crust under the central range. We therefore propose that this southeastern extending weakened zone was mainly the result of a fluid intrusion either from the young fold-and-thrust belt associated with the passive Asian continental margin in the shallow crust or the subducted Eurasian continental (EC) plate in the lower crust and uppermost mantle. We suggest that fluid intrusion into the upper Oligocene to Pleistocene shallow marine and clastic shelf units of the Eurasian continental crust and/or the relatively thin uppermost part of the transitional Pleistocene-Holocene foreland due to the subduction of the EC plate along the deformation front played a key role in earthquake generation in

Continental and Marine Environmental changes in Europe induced by Global Climate variability and Regional Paleogeography Changes

OpenAIRE

Popescu , Speranta - Maria

2008-01-01

version originale; My PhD and post-doctorate researches have focused on paleoclimatic, paleogeographical and paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the Mediterranean Basin and its adjacent seas (i.e. the residual former Paratethys) since 11 Ma. During this time-interval the Mediterranean marine and continental environments were affected by significant paleogeographic changes, forced by global climate and sea-level variability, plate tectonics and regional uplift of Alps s.l. and Carpathians. Tw...

Atmospheric residence times of continental aerosols

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balkanski, Y.J.

1991-01-01

The global atmospheric distributions of Rn-222 are simulated with a three-dimensional model of atmospheric transport based on the meteorology of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model. The short-lived radioactive gas Rn-222 (half-life = 3.8d) is emitted almost exclusively from land, at a relatively uniform rate; hence it is an excellent tracer of continental influences. Lead-210 is produced by decay of Rn-222 and immediately condenses to preexisting aerosol surfaces. It provides an excellent measure of aerosol residence times in the atmosphere because its source is accurately defined by the Rn-222 distribution. Results from the three-dimensional model are compared to measurements of Rn-222 and Pb-210 atmospheric concentrations to evaluate model's long-range transport over oceanic regions and to study the deposition mechanisms of atmospheric aerosols. Model results for Rn-222 are used to examine the long-range transport of continental air over two selected oceanic regions, the subantarctic Indian Ocean and the North Pacific. It is shown that the fast transport of air from southern Africa causes substantial continental pollution at southern mid-latitudes, a region usually regarded as pristine. Air over the North Pacific is heavily impacted by continental influences year round, but the altitude at which the transport occurs varies seasonally. Observations of aerosols at island sites, which are commonly used as diagnostics of continental influences, may be misleading because they do not account for influences at high altitude and because aerosols are efficiently scavenged by deposition during transport. The study of Pb-210 focuses on defining the residence times of submicron aerosols in the troposphere. Scavenging in wet convective updrafts is found to provide the dominant sink on a global scale

Imaging a Time-variant Earthquake Focal Region along an Interplate Boundary

Science.gov (United States)

Tsuruga, K.; Kasahara, J.; Hasada, Y.; Fujii, N.

2010-12-01

We show a preliminary result of a trial for detecting a time-variant earthquake focal region along an interplate boundary by means of a new imaging method through a numerical simulation. Remarkable seismic reflections from the interplate boundaries of a subducting oceanic plate have been observed in Japan Trench (Mochizuki et al, 2005) and in Nankai Trough (Iidaka et al., 2003). Those strong seismic reflection existing in the current aseismic zones suggest the existence of fluid along the subduction boundary, and it is considered that they closely relate to a future huge earthquake. Seismic ACROSS has a potential to monitor some changes of transfer function along the propagating ray paths, by using an accurately-controlled transmission and receiving of the steady continuous signals repeatedly (Kumazawa et al., 2000). If the physical state in a focal region along the interplate would be changed enough in the time and space, for instance, by increasing or decreasing of fluid flow, we could detect some differences of the amplitude and/or travel-time of the particular reflection phases from the time-variant target region. In this study, we first investigated the seismic characteristics of seismograms and their differences before and after the change of a target region through a numerical simulation. Then, as one of the trials, we attempted to make an image of such time-variant target region by applying a finite-difference back-propagation technique in the time and space to the differences of waveforms (after Kasahara et al., 2010). We here used a 2-D seismic velocity model in the central Japan (Tsuruga et al., 2005), assuming a time-variant target region with a 200-m thickness along a subducting Philippine Sea plate at 30 km in depth. Seismograms were calculated at a 500-m interval for 260 km long by using FDM software (Larsen, 2000), in the case that P- and S-wave velocities (Vp amd Vs) in the target region decreased about 30 % before to after the change (e.g., Vp=3

Improve earthquake hypocenter using adaptive simulated annealing inversion in regional tectonic, volcano tectonic, and geothermal observation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ry, Rexha Verdhora, E-mail: rexha.vry@gmail.com [Master Program of Geophysical Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha No.10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Nugraha, Andri Dian, E-mail: nugraha@gf.itb.ac.id [Global Geophysical Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha No.10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)

2015-04-24

Observation of earthquakes is routinely used widely in tectonic activity observation, and also in local scale such as volcano tectonic and geothermal activity observation. It is necessary for determining the location of precise hypocenter which the process involves finding a hypocenter location that has minimum error between the observed and the calculated travel times. When solving this nonlinear inverse problem, simulated annealing inversion method can be applied to such global optimization problems, which the convergence of its solution is independent of the initial model. In this study, we developed own program codeby applying adaptive simulated annealing inversion in Matlab environment. We applied this method to determine earthquake hypocenter using several data cases which are regional tectonic, volcano tectonic, and geothermal field. The travel times were calculated using ray tracing shooting method. We then compared its results with the results using Geiger’s method to analyze its reliability. Our results show hypocenter location has smaller RMS error compared to the Geiger’s result that can be statistically associated with better solution. The hypocenter of earthquakes also well correlated with geological structure in the study area. Werecommend using adaptive simulated annealing inversion to relocate hypocenter location in purpose to get precise and accurate earthquake location.

Using remote sensing to predict earthquake impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Fylaktos, Asimakis; Yfantidou, Anastasia

2017-09-01

Natural hazards like earthquakes can result to enormous property damage, and human casualties in mountainous areas. Italy has always been exposed to numerous earthquakes, mostly concentrated in central and southern regions. Last year, two seismic events near Norcia (central Italy) have occurred, which led to substantial loss of life and extensive damage to properties, infrastructure and cultural heritage. This research utilizes remote sensing products and GIS software, to provide a database of information. We used both SAR images of Sentinel 1A and optical imagery of Landsat 8 to examine the differences of topography with the aid of the multi temporal monitoring technique. This technique suits for the observation of any surface deformation. This database is a cluster of information regarding the consequences of the earthquakes in groups, such as property and infrastructure damage, regional rifts, cultivation loss, landslides and surface deformations amongst others, all mapped on GIS software. Relevant organizations can implement these data in order to calculate the financial impact of these types of earthquakes. In the future, we can enrich this database including more regions and enhance the variety of its applications. For instance, we could predict the future impacts of any type of earthquake in several areas, and design a preliminarily model of emergency for immediate evacuation and quick recovery response. It is important to know how the surface moves, in particular geographical regions like Italy, Cyprus and Greece, where earthquakes are so frequent. We are not able to predict earthquakes, but using data from this research, we may assess the damage that could be caused in the future.

Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance and "Istanbul Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.

2009-04-01

The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing

High Resolution Vp and Vp/Vs Local Earthquake Tomography of the Val d'Agri Region (Southern Apennines, Italy).

Science.gov (United States)

Improta, L.; Bagh, S.; De Gori, P.; Pastori, M.; Piccinini, D.; Valoroso, L.; Anselmi, M.; Buttinelli, M.; Chiarabba, C.

2015-12-01

The Val d'Agri (VA) Quaternary basin in the southern Apennines extensional belt hosts the largest oilfield in onshore Europe and normal-fault systems with high (up to M7) seismogenic potential. Frequent small-magnitude swarms related to both active crustal extension and anthropogenic activity have occurred in the region. Causal factors for induced seismicity are a water impoundment with severe seasonal oscillations and a high-rate wastewater injection well. We analyzed around 1200 earthquakes (MLENI petroleum company. We used local earthquake tomography to investigate static and transient features of the crustal velocity structure and to accurately locate earthquakes. Vp and Vp/Vs models are parameterized by a 3x3x2 km spacing and well resolved down to about 12 km depth. The complex Vp model illuminates broad antiformal structures corresponding to wide ramp-anticlines involving Mesozoic carbonates of the Apulia hydrocarbon reservoir, and NW-SE trending low Vp regions related to thrust-sheet-top clastic basins. The VA basin corresponds to shallow low-Vp region. Focal mechanisms show normal faulting kinematics with minor strike slip solutions in agreement with the local extensional regime. Earthquake locations and focal solutions depict shallow (< 5 km depth) E-dipping extensional structures beneath the artificial lake located in the southern sector of the basin, and along the western margin of the VA. A few swarms define relatively deep transfer structures accommodating the differential extension between main normal faults. The spatio-temporal distribution of around 220 events correlates with wastewater disposal activity, illuminating a NE-dipping fault between 2-5 km depth in the carbonate reservoir. The fault measures 5 km along dip and corresponds to a pre-existing thrust fault favorably oriented with respect to the local extensional field.

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

2005-03-24

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

Rapid Seismic Deployment for Capturing Aftershocks of the September 2017 Tehuantepec, Mexico (M=8.1) and Morelos-Puebla (M=7.1), Mexico Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Velasco, A. A.; Karplus, M. S.; Dena, O.; Gonzalez-Huizar, H.; Husker, A. L.; Perez-Campos, X.; Calo, M.; Valdes, C. M.

2017-12-01

The September 7 Tehuantepec, Mexico (M=8.1) and the September 19 Morelos-Puebla, Mexico (M=7.1) earthquakes ruptured with extensional faulting within the Cocos Plate at 70-km and 50-km depth, as it subducts beneath the continental North American Plate. Both earthquakes caused significant damage and loss of life. These events were followed by a M=6.1 extensional earthquake at only 10-km depth in Oaxaca on September 23, 2017. While the Morelos-Puebla earthquake was likely too far away to be statically triggered by the Tehuantepec earthquake, initial Coulomb stress analyses show that the M=6.1 event may have been an aftershock of the Tehuantepec earthquake. Many questions remain about these earthquakes, including: Did the Cocos Plate earthquakes load the upper plate, and could they possibly trigger an equal or larger earthquake on the plate interface? Are these the result of plate bending? Do the aftershocks migrate to the locked zone in the subduction zone? Why did the intermediate depth earthquakes create so much damage? Are these earthquakes linked by dynamic stresses? Is it possible that a potential slow-slip event triggered both events? To address some of these questions, we deployed 10 broadband seismometers near the epicenter of the Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquake and 51 UTEP-owned nodes (5-Hz, 3-component geophones) to record aftershocks and augment networks deployed by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). The 10 broadband instruments will be deployed for 6 months, while the nodes were deployed 25 days. The relative ease-of-deployment and larger numbers of the nodes allowed us to deploy them quickly in the area near the M=6.1 Oaxaca earthquake, just a few days after that earthquake struck. We deployed them near the heavily-damaged cities of Juchitan, Ixtaltepec, and Ixtepec as well as in Tehuantepec and Salina Cruz, Oaxaca in order to test their capabilities for site characterization and aftershock studies. This is the first test of these

Global variations of large megathrust earthquake rupture characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Kanamori, Hiroo

2018-01-01

Despite the surge of great earthquakes along subduction zones over the last decade and advances in observations and analysis techniques, it remains unclear whether earthquake complexity is primarily controlled by persistent fault properties or by dynamics of the failure process. We introduce the radiated energy enhancement factor (REEF), given by the ratio of an event’s directly measured radiated energy to the calculated minimum radiated energy for a source with the same seismic moment and duration, to quantify the rupture complexity. The REEF measurements for 119 large [moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 to 9.2] megathrust earthquakes distributed globally show marked systematic regional patterns, suggesting that the rupture complexity is strongly influenced by persistent geological factors. We characterize this as the existence of smooth and rough rupture patches with varying interpatch separation, along with failure dynamics producing triggering interactions that augment the regional influences on large events. We present an improved asperity scenario incorporating both effects and categorize global subduction zones and great earthquakes based on their REEF values and slip patterns. Giant earthquakes rupturing over several hundred kilometers can occur in regions with low-REEF patches and small interpatch spacing, such as for the 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, or in regions with high-REEF patches and large interpatch spacing as in the case for the 2004 Sumatra and 1906 Ecuador-Colombia earthquakes. Thus, combining seismic magnitude Mw and REEF, we provide a quantitative framework to better represent the span of rupture characteristics of great earthquakes and to understand global seismicity. PMID:29750186

Evaluation of the recorded ground motions for the unusual earthquake of 13 August 2006 ( M w 5.3) in Michoacán México

Science.gov (United States)

Ramírez-Gaytán, Alejandro; Jaimes, Miguel A.; Bandy, William L.; Huerfano, Victor M.; Salido-Ruiz, Ricardo A.

2015-10-01

The focal mechanism of the moderate earthquake of 13 August 2006 M w = 5.3, which occurred in the border coastal area between Michoacán and Colima, México, is unusual. As shown by the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) project and the Servicio Sismológico Nacional de Mexico (SSN), the thrust mechanism is striking almost perpendicularly to the majority of earthquakes occurring along the subduction zone of the Mexican Pacific continental margin which commonly strike nearly parallel to the trench. The purpose of this study is to analyze the observed ground motions of this particular event relative to those of the common events. First, we apply the H/V technique to verify that the stations involved in this study are nearly free of site effects. Then, we compare the observed ground motions with (i) three empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) appropriate for the region, (ii) ground motions of four real earthquakes with the common mechanism, and (iii) the Fourier spectrum of a selected common event.

The USGS Earthquake Notification Service (ENS): Customizable notifications of earthquakes around the globe

Science.gov (United States)

Wald, Lisa A.; Wald, David J.; Schwarz, Stan; Presgrave, Bruce; Earle, Paul S.; Martinez, Eric; Oppenheimer, David

2008-01-01

At the beginning of 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) introduced a new automated Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) to take the place of the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) "Bigquake" system and the various other individual EHP e-mail list-servers for separate regions in the United States. These included northern California, southern California, and the central and eastern United States. ENS is a "one-stop shopping" system that allows Internet users to subscribe to flexible and customizable notifications for earthquakes anywhere in the world. The customization capability allows users to define the what (magnitude threshold), the when (day and night thresholds), and the where (specific regions) for their notifications. Customization is achieved by employing a per-user based request profile, allowing the notifications to be tailored for each individual's requirements. Such earthquake-parameter-specific custom delivery was not possible with simple e-mail list-servers. Now that event and user profiles are in a structured query language (SQL) database, additional flexibility is possible. At the time of this writing, ENS had more than 114,000 subscribers, with more than 200,000 separate user profiles. On a typical day, more than 188,000 messages get sent to a variety of widely distributed users for a wide range of earthquake locations and magnitudes. The purpose of this article is to describe how ENS works, highlight the features it offers, and summarize plans for future developments.

Regional fault deformation characteristics before and after the Menyuan Ms6.4 earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ning Li

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes data regarding cross-fault deformations within the seismogenic zone of the 2016 Qinghai Menyuan Ms6.4 earthquake and its surrounding area. The results showed that the tendency anomaly sites near the epicenter had relatively long anomaly durations prior to the earthquake, while sudden-jumping anomaly sites started to increase in the middle eastern Qilian Mountains approximately a year before the earthquake and continued to increase and migrate towards the vicinity of the epicenter two to six months before the earthquake. Intensive observations a few days after the earthquake indicated that abnormal returns and turns before the earthquake were significant, but all had small amplitudes, and the coseismic effect was generally minor. In addition, the post-seismic tendency analysis of individual cross faults in the Qilian Mountain fault zone revealed an accelerating thrust tendency at all cross-fault sites in the middle Qilian Mountains after the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. This indicates that the Wenchuan mega-earthquake exerted a great impact on the dynamic environment of the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet plate and significantly enhanced the extrusion effect of the Indian plate on the middle Qilian Mountains, generating favorable conditions for the occurrence of Menyuan thrust earthquakes.

Prediction of maximum earthquake intensities for the San Francisco Bay region

Science.gov (United States)

Borcherdt, Roger D.; Gibbs, James F.

1975-01-01

The intensity data for the California earthquake of April 18, 1906, are strongly dependent on distance from the zone of surface faulting and the geological character of the ground. Considering only those sites (approximately one square city block in size) for which there is good evidence for the degree of ascribed intensity, the empirical relation derived between 1906 intensities and distance perpendicular to the fault for 917 sites underlain by rocks of the Franciscan Formation is: Intensity = 2.69 - 1.90 log (Distance) (km). For sites on other geologic units intensity increments, derived with respect to this empirical relation, correlate strongly with the Average Horizontal Spectral Amplifications (AHSA) determined from 99 three-component recordings of ground motion generated by nuclear explosions in Nevada. The resulting empirical relation is: Intensity Increment = 0.27 +2.70 log (AHSA), and average intensity increments for the various geologic units are -0.29 for granite, 0.19 for Franciscan Formation, 0.64 for the Great Valley Sequence, 0.82 for Santa Clara Formation, 1.34 for alluvium, 2.43 for bay mud. The maximum intensity map predicted from these empirical relations delineates areas in the San Francisco Bay region of potentially high intensity from future earthquakes on either the San Andreas fault or the Hazard fault.

Prediction of maximum earthquake intensities for the San Francisco Bay region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Borcherdt, R.D.; Gibbs, J.F.

1975-01-01

The intensity data for the California earthquake of Apr 18, 1906, are strongly dependent on distance from the zone of surface faulting and the geological character of the ground. Considering only those sites (approximately one square city block in size) for which there is good evidence for the degree of ascribed intensity, the empirical relation derived between 1906 intensities and distance perpendicular to the fault for 917 sites underlain by rocks of the Franciscan formation is intensity = 2.69 - 1.90 log (distance) (km). For sites on other geologic units, intensity increments, derived with respect to this empirical relation, correlate strongly with the average horizontal spectral amplifications (AHSA) determined from 99 three-component recordings of ground motion generated by nuclear explosions in Nevada. The resulting empirical relation is intensity increment = 0.27 + 2.70 log (AHSA), and average intensity increments for the various geologic units are -0.29 for granite, 0.19 for Franciscan formation, 0.64 for the Great Valley sequence, 0.82 for Santa Clara formation, 1.34 for alluvium, and 2.43 for bay mud. The maximum intensity map predicted from these empirical relations delineates areas in the San Francisco Bay region of potentially high intensity from future earthquakes on either the San Andreas fault or the Hayward fault.

Twitter earthquake detection: earthquake monitoring in a social world

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel C. Bowden

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

Analysis of earthquake parameters to generate hazard maps by integrating AHP and GIS for Küçükçekmece region

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T. Erden

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Definition of an earthquake includes parameters with respect to region of interest. Each of those parameters has different weights on the earthquake ground motion and effect. This study examines the weight of common parameters that have an influence on the effects of earthquakes. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP is used for factor weighting of each parameter and Geographic Information Systems (GIS are used for simulating the results of the AHP on a spatial environment. In this study, it is aimed to generate a hierarchical structure of the model for the simulation of an earthquake hazard map (EHM. The parameters of the EHM, which are selected by the criterion of non-correlated factors, are: topography, distance to epicenter, soil classification, liquefaction, and fault/focal mechanism. As a result of the study, weights of the parameters that affect the earthquake ground motion at the study area are determined and compared with a selected attenuation relation map.

Waveform through the subducted plate under the Tokyo region in Japan observed by a ultra-dense seismic network (MeSO-net) and seismic activity around mega-thrust earthquakes area

Science.gov (United States)

Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nanjo, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Tsuruoka, H.; Morita, Y.; Kato, A.; Iidaka, T.; Hirata, N.; Tanada, T.; Obara, K.; Sekine, S.; Kurashimo, E.

2009-12-01

In central Japan, the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducts beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan area, the Kanto region, where it causes mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater earthquake in this region at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates the next great earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (1 trillion US$) economic loss. This great earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. We had started the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan area (2007-2012). Under this project, the construction of the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net) that consists of about 400 observation sites was started [Kasahara et al., 2008; Nakagawa et al., 2008]. Now, we had 178 observation sites. The correlation of the wave is high because the observation point is deployed at about 2 km intervals, and the identification of the later phase is recognized easily thought artificial noise is very large. We also discuss the relation between a deformation of PSP and intra-plate M7+ earthquakes: the PSP is subducting beneath the Honshu arc and also colliding with the Pacific plate. The subduction and collision both contribute active seismicity in the Kanto region. We are going to present a high resolution tomographic image to show low velocity zone which suggests a possible internal failure of the plate; a source region of the M7+ intra-plate earthquake. Our study will contribute a new assessment of the seismic hazard at the Metropolitan area in Japan. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by the Earthquake Research Institute cooperative research program.

Pain after earthquake

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Angeletti Chiara

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction On 6 April 2009, at 03:32 local time, an Mw 6.3 earthquake hit the Abruzzi region of central Italy causing widespread damage in the City of L Aquila and its nearby villages. The earthquake caused 308 casualties and over 1,500 injuries, displaced more than 25,000 people and induced significant damage to more than 10,000 buildings in the L'Aquila region. Objectives This observational retrospective study evaluated the prevalence and drug treatment of pain in the five weeks following the L'Aquila earthquake (April 6, 2009. Methods 958 triage documents were analysed for patients pain severity, pain type, and treatment efficacy. Results A third of pain patients reported pain with a prevalence of 34.6%. More than half of pain patients reported severe pain (58.8%. Analgesic agents were limited to available drugs: anti-inflammatory agents, paracetamol, and weak opioids. Reduction in verbal numerical pain scores within the first 24 hours after treatment was achieved with the medications at hand. Pain prevalence and characterization exhibited a biphasic pattern with acute pain syndromes owing to trauma occurring in the first 15 days after the earthquake; traumatic pain then decreased and re-surged at around week five, owing to rebuilding efforts. In the second through fourth week, reports of pain occurred mainly owing to relapses of chronic conditions. Conclusions This study indicates that pain is prevalent during natural disasters, may exhibit a discernible pattern over the weeks following the event, and current drug treatments in this region may be adequate for emergency situations.

Confirmation of the extraterrestrial forces decisive effect on earthquake triggering and lithospheric plates movement.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostrihansky, L.; Kalenda, P.

2012-04-01

In contrast to unsuccessful searching for biweekly tides earthquakes triggering the Earth's rotation variations give the unambiguous answer that the extreme positions of the Earth's acceleration and deceleration trigger earthquakes. In addition to it, an important repetition of earthquakes with 19 years period of the Meton's cycle and nutation has been found. Further, it has been found that the continental heating by the Sun and formation of the thermoelastic wave is an important factor of affecting of the Earth's surface and the plate movement. For this the special static vertical pendulum serves with the optimum length of several tens of meters, which after its refinement will be an important instrument for confirmation of stated claims. This problem is so far important that the scientific community advocates an opinion that earthquakes are caused by fluently acting forces in the Earth's interior, i.e. by forces causing absolutely unpredictable disturbances of the Earth' crust. This work is in outstanding interest of the European Union because the volcanic eruptions in Iceland, till now unpredictable, disturb the air-traffic in Europe in spite that just earthquakes in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge show unequivocal earthquake triggering in rhythm of the Earth's rotation variations.

Recovering from the ShakeOut earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Wein, Anne; Johnson, Laurie; Bernknopf, Richard

2011-01-01

Recovery from an earthquake like the M7.8 ShakeOut Scenario will be a major endeavor taking many years to complete. Hundreds of Southern California municipalities will be affected; most lack recovery plans or previous disaster experience. To support recovery planning this paper 1) extends the regional ShakeOut Scenario analysis into the recovery period using a recovery model, 2) localizes analyses to identify longer-term impacts and issues in two communities, and 3) considers the regional context of local recovery.Key community insights about preparing for post-disaster recovery include the need to: geographically diversify city procurement; set earthquake mitigation priorities for critical infrastructure (e.g., airport), plan to replace mobile homes with earthquake safety measures, consider post-earthquake redevelopment opportunities ahead of time, and develop post-disaster recovery management and governance structures. This work also showed that communities with minor damages are still sensitive to regional infrastructure damages and their potential long-term impacts on community recovery. This highlights the importance of community and infrastructure resilience strategies as well.

Precursory enhancement of EIA in the morning sector: Contribution from mid-latitude large earthquakes in the north-east Asian region

Science.gov (United States)

Ryu, Kwangsun; Oyama, Koh-Ichiro; Bankov, Ludmil; Chen, Chia-Hung; Devi, Minakshi; Liu, Huixin; Liu, Jann-Yenq

2016-01-01

To investigate whether the link between seismic activity and EIA (equatorial ionization anomaly) enhancement is valid for mid-latitude seismic activity, DEMETER observations around seven large earthquakes in the north-east Asian region were fully analyzed (M ⩾ 6.8). In addition, statistical analysis was performed for 35 large earthquakes (M ⩾ 6.0) that occurred during the DEMETER observation period. The results suggest that mid-latitude earthquakes do contribute to EIA enhancement, represented as normalized equatorial Ne , and that ionospheric change precedes seismic events, as has been reported in previous studies. According to statistical studies, the normalized equatorial density enhancement is sensitive and proportional to both the magnitude and the hypocenter depth of an earthquake. The mechanisms that can explain the contribution of mid-latitude seismic activity to EIA variation are briefly discussed based on current explanations of the geochemical and ionospheric processes involved in lithosphere-ionosphere interaction.

Perception of earthquake risk in Taiwan: effects of gender and past earthquake experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Kung, Yi-Wen; Chen, Sue-Huei

2012-09-01

This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer-assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two-factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, "personal impact," encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, "controllability," encompassed a sense of efficacy of self-protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Role of the Submarine Channel Pernambuco in the Brazilian Continental Margin East

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres, L.; Villena, H.

2010-01-01

The Brazilian Continental Margin, which coastline measures more than 8,500km gives to Brazil continental dimensions. This huge region is conditioned by the action of process such as, sedimentals, tectonics, geomorphological and climatical, as example, which direct or in conjunction with other ones, since of continental break up between South America and Africa are going on and may be responsible for the current morphology of the margin. In accordance with this point of view, the Oriental part of the Brazilian Continental Margin, presents characteristics of a passive margin and fisiographically ''starved'', in which the continental break occur no more than 100km from de coastline and the sedimentary coverage is mainly carbonatic. The continental slope does not present great extension if compared with other parts of the Brazilian Margin and sharp gradient. The remark presence of the continental plateaus (Rio Grande Plateau and Pernambuco Plateau), which link with the continental rise and additionally the Paraiba, Pernambuco e Bahia seamounts, are the majors features in the morphology of the region between the slope and the continental rise. This paper will concentrate its focus on Bahia Seamount, with emphasis in the mainly erosive feature which cut transversally the seamounts, named Pernambuco Submarine Channel. It will be employed bathymetric multibeam and seismic data carried out by the Brazilian Continental Shelf Project (LEPLAC) in the current year and pieces of information from bibliographic researches in order to present a discussion by the hole of the Pernambuco Submarine Channel in the Occidental region of the Brazilian Continental Margin

Earthquake forecasting test for Kanto district to reduce vulnerability of urban mega earthquake disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Yokoi, S.; Tsuruoka, H.; Nanjo, K.; Hirata, N.

2012-12-01

Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global project on earthquake predictability research. The final goal of this project is to search for the intrinsic predictability of the earthquake rupture process through forecast testing experiments. The Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo joined CSEP and started the Japanese testing center called as CSEP-Japan. This testing center provides an open access to researchers contributing earthquake forecast models applied to Japan. Now more than 100 earthquake forecast models were submitted on the prospective experiment. The models are separated into 4 testing classes (1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years) and 3 testing regions covering an area of Japan including sea area, Japanese mainland and Kanto district. We evaluate the performance of the models in the official suite of tests defined by CSEP. The total number of experiments was implemented for approximately 300 rounds. These results provide new knowledge concerning statistical forecasting models. We started a study for constructing a 3-dimensional earthquake forecasting model for Kanto district in Japan based on CSEP experiments under the Special Project for Reducing Vulnerability for Urban Mega Earthquake Disasters. Because seismicity of the area ranges from shallower part to a depth of 80 km due to subducting Philippine Sea plate and Pacific plate, we need to study effect of depth distribution. We will develop models for forecasting based on the results of 2-D modeling. We defined the 3D - forecasting area in the Kanto region with test classes of 1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years, and magnitudes from 4.0 to 9.0 as in CSEP-Japan. In the first step of the study, we will install RI10K model (Nanjo, 2011) and the HISTETAS models (Ogata, 2011) to know if those models have good performance as in the 3 months 2-D CSEP-Japan experiments in the Kanto region before the 2011 Tohoku event (Yokoi et al., in preparation). We use CSEP

One year of geochemical monitoring of groundwater in the Abruzzi region after the 2009 earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiodini, Giovanni; Caliro, Stefano; Cardellini, Carlo; Avino, Rosario; Monopoli, Carmine; Inguaggiato, Salvatore; Frondini, Francesco

2010-05-01

The presence of a deep and inorganic source of CO2 has been recently recognized in Italy on the basis of the deeply derived carbon dissolved in the groundwater. In particular, the regional map of CO2 Earth degassing shows that two large degassing structures (Tuscan Roman degassing structure, TRDS, and Campanian degassing structure, CDS) affect the Tyrrhenian side of the Italian peninsula. The comparison between the map of CO2 Earth degassing and of the location of the Italian earthquakes highlights that the anomalous CO2 flux suddenly disappears in the Apennine in correspondence of a narrow band where most of the seismicity concentrates. A previous conceptual model proposed that in this area, at the eastern borders of TRDS and CDS, the CO2 from the mantle wedge intrudes the crust and accumulate in structural traps generating over-pressurized reservoirs. These CO2 over-pressurized levels can play a major role in triggering the Apennine earthquakes. The 2009 Abruzzo earthquakes, like previous seismic crises in the Northern Apennine, occurred at the border of the TRDS, suggesting also in this case a possible role played by deeply derived fluids in the earthquake generation. Detailed hydro-geochemical campaigns, with a monthly frequency, started immediately after the main shock of the 6th of April 2009. The new campaigns include the main springs of the area which were previously studied in detail, during a campaign performed ten years ago, constituting a pre-crisis reference case. Almost one year of geochemical data of the main dissolved ions, of dissolved gases (CO2, CH4, N2, Ar, He) and of the stable isotopes of the water (H, O), CO2 (13C) and He (3He/4He), highlight both that the epicentral area of L'Aquila earthquakes is affected by an important process of CO2 Earth degassing and that that the gases dissolved in the groundwater reflects the input in to the aquifers of a deep gas phase, CO2- rich, with an high He content and with low 3He/4He ratios, similar to the

Atmospheric Residence Times of Continental Aerosols.

Science.gov (United States)

Balkanski, Yves Jacques

The global atmospheric distributions of ^{222}Rn and ^{210 }Pb are simulated with a three-dimensional model of atmospheric transport based on the meteorology of the NASA GISS^1>=neral circulation model. The short-lived radioactive gas ^ {222}Rn (half-life = 3.8d) is emitted almost exclusively from land, at a relatively uniform rate; hence it is an excellent tracer of continental influences. Lead -210 is produced by decay of ^{222} Rn and immediately condenses to preexisting aerosol surfaces. It provides an excellent measure of aerosol residence times in the atmosphere because its source is accurately defined by the ^{222} Rn distribution. Results from the three-dimensional model are compared to measurements of ^ {222}Rn and ^{210 }Pb atmospheric concentrations to evaluate model's long-range transport over oceanic regions and to study the deposition mechanisms of atmospheric aerosols. Model results for ^{222} Rn are used to examine the long-range transport of continental air over two selected oceanic regions, the subantartic Indian Ocean and the North Pacific. It is shown that fast transport of air from southern Africa causes substantial continental pollution at southern mid-latitudes, a region usually regarded as pristine. Air over the North Pacific is heavily impacted by continental influences year round, but the altitude at which the transport occurs varies seasonally. Observations of aerosols at island sites, which are commonly used as diagnostics of continental influences, may be misleading because they do not account for influences at high altitude and because aerosols are efficiently scavenged by deposition during transport. The study of ^{210}Pb focuses on defining the residence times of submicron aerosols in the troposphere. Scavenging in wet convective updrafts is found to provide the dominant sink on a global scale. The globally averaged residence time for ^{210 }Pb-containing aerosols in the troposphere is 7 days. The average increase in residence time

Magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes in relation to seismic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, R.D.

1989-01-01

Estimating the frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes on a regional basis is an important task in estimating seismic risk at a construction site. Analysis of global earthquake data provides an insight into the magnitudes frequency relationship in a statistical manner. It turns out that, whereas a linear relationship between the logarithm of earthquake occurrence rates and the corresponding earthquake magnitudes fits well in the magnitude range between 5 and 7, a second degree polynomial in M, the earthquake magnitude provides a better description of the frequencies of earthquakes in a much wider range of magnitudes. It may be possible to adopt magnitude frequency relation for regions, for which adequate earthquake data are not available, to carry out seismic risk calculations. (author). 32 refs., 8 tabs., 7 figs

Study of Seismic Clusters at Bahía de Banderas Region, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Rutz-Lopez, M.; Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Trejo-Gomez, E.

2010-12-01

Given that the coast in the states of Jalisco and south of the state of Nayarit is located within a region of high seismic potential and also because population is increasing, perhaps motivated by the development of tourism, the Civil Defense authorities of Jalisco and the Centro de Sismología y Volcanología de Occidente-SisVOc of Universidad de Guadalajara started in the year 2000 a joint project to study the seismic risk of the region, including the seismic monitoring of Colima volcano (located between the states of Jalisco and Colima). This work focuses on the study of seismicity in the area of Bahía de Banderas and northern coast of Jalisco. To this end, we perform an analysis of available seismograms to characterize active structures, their relationship to surface morphology, and possible reach of these structures into the shallow parts of the bay. The data used in this work are waveforms recorded during the year 2003 during which the seismograph network spanned the region of study. Our method is based on the identification of seismic clusters or families using cross-correlation of waveforms, earthquake relocation and modeling of fault planes. From an initial data set of 404 earthquakes located during 2003, 96 earthquakes could be related to 17 potentially active continental structures. A modeling of fault planes was possible for 11 of these structures. Subgroups of 7 structures are aligned parallel to the Middle America Trench, a possible consequence of oblique subduction. The magnitudes of earthquakes grouped into families is less than 3.6 (Ml), corresponding to fault dimensions of hundreds of meters.

OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

2009-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information

The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes: Cascading Geological Hazards and Compounding Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katsuichiro Goda

2016-08-01

Full Text Available A sequence of two strike-slip earthquakes occurred on 14 and 16 April 2016 in the intraplate region of Kyushu Island, Japan, apart from subduction zones, and caused significant damage and disruption to the Kumamoto region. The analyses of regional seismic catalog and available strong motion recordings reveal striking characteristics of the events, such as migrating seismicity, earthquake surface rupture, and major foreshock-mainshock earthquake sequences. To gain valuable lessons from the events, a UK Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT was dispatched to Kumamoto, and earthquake damage surveys were conducted to relate observed earthquake characteristics to building and infrastructure damage caused by the earthquakes. The lessons learnt from the reconnaissance mission have important implications on current seismic design practice regarding the required seismic resistance of structures under multiple shocks and the seismic design of infrastructure subject to large ground deformation. The observations also highlight the consequences of cascading geological hazards on community resilience. To share the gathered damage data widely, geo-tagged photos are organized using Google Earth and the kmz file is made publicly available.

Using regional moment tensors to constrain the kinematics and stress evolution of the 2010–2013 Canterbury earthquake sequence, South Island, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Matthew W.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Benz, Harley M.; Furlong, Kevin P.

2014-01-01

On September 3, 2010, a MW 7.0 (U.S. Geological Survey moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured across the Canterbury Plains in South Island, New Zealand. Since then, New Zealand GNS Science has recorded over 10,000 aftershocks ML 2.0 and larger, including three destructive ~ MW 6.0 earthquakes near Christchurch. We treat the Canterbury earthquake sequence as an intraplate earthquake sequence, and compare its kinematics to an Andersonian model for fault slip in a uniform stress field. We determined moment magnitudes and double couple solutions for 150 earthquakes having MW 3.7 and larger through the use of a waveform inversion technique using data from broadband seismic stations on South Island, New Zealand. The majority (126) of these double couple solutions have strike-slip focal mechanisms, with right-lateral slip on ENE fault planes or equivalently left-lateral slip on SSE fault planes. The remaining focal mechanisms indicate reverse faulting, except for two normal faulting events. The strike-slip segments have compatible orientations for slip in a stress field with a horizontal σ1 oriented ~ N115°E, and horizontal σ3. The preference for right lateral strike-slip earthquakes suggests that these structures are inherited from previous stages of deformation. Reverse slip is interpreted to have occurred on previously existing structures in regions with an absence of existing structures optimally oriented for strike-slip deformation. Despite the variations in slip direction and faulting style, most aftershocks had nearly the same P-axis orientation, consistent with the regional σ1. There is no evidence for significant changes in these stress orientations throughout the Canterbury earthquake sequence.

Implication of conjugate faulting in the earthquake brewing and originating process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, L.M. (Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge); Deng, Q.; Jiang, P.

1980-03-01

The earthquake sequence, precursory and geologo-structural background of the Haicheng, Tangshan, Songpan-Pingwu earthquakes are discussed in this article. All of these earthquakes occurred in a seismic zone controlled by the main boundary faults of an intraplate fault block. However, the fault plane of a main earthquake does not consist of the same faults, but is rather a related secondary fault. They formed altogether a conjugate shearing rupture zone under the action of a regional tectonic stress field. As to the earthquake sequence, the foreshocks and aftershocks might occur on the conjugate fault planes within an epicentral region rather than be limited to the fault plane of a main earthquake, such as the distribution of foreshocks and aftershocks of the Haicheng earthquake. The characteristics of the long-, medium-, and imminent-term earthquake precursory anomalies of the three mentioned earthquakes, especially the character of well-studies anomaly phenomena in electrical resistivity, radon emission, groundwater and animal behavior, have been investigated. The studies of these earthquake precursors show that they were distributed in an area rather more extensive than the epicentral region. Some fault zones in the conjugate fault network usually appeared as distributed belts or concentrated zones of earthquake precursory anomalies, and can be traced in the medium-long term precursory field, but seem more distinct in the short-imminent term precursory anomalous field. These characteristics can be explained by the rupture and sliding originating along the conjugate shear network and the concentration of stress in the regional stress field.

From Tornadoes to Earthquakes: Forecast Verification for Binary Events Applied to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan,Earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chien-Chih Chen

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Forecast verification procedures for statistical events with binary outcomes typically rely on the use of contingency tables and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC diagrams. Originally developed for the statistical evaluation of tornado forecasts on a county-by-county basis, these methods can be adapted to the evaluation of competing earthquake forecasts. Here we apply these methods retrospectively to two forecasts for the M 7.3 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. We show that a previously proposed forecast method that is based on evaluating changes in seismic intensity on a regional basis is superior to a forecast based only on the magnitude of seismic intensity in the same region. Our results confirm earlier suggestions that the earthquake preparation process for events such as the Chi-Chi earthquake involves anomalous activation or quiescence, and that signatures of these processes can be detected in seismicity data using appropriate methods.

Regional earthquakes followed by delayed ground uplifts at Campi Flegrei Caldera, Italy: Arguments for a causal link

Science.gov (United States)

Lupi, Matteo; Frehner, Marcel; Weis, Philipp; Skelton, Alasdair; Saenger, Erik H.; Tisato, Nicola; Geiger, Sebastian; Chiodini, Giovanni; Driesner, Thomas

2017-09-01

Earthquake-triggered volcanic activity promoted by dynamic and static stresses are considered rare and difficult-to-capture geological processes. Calderas are ideal natural laboratories to investigate earthquake-volcano interactions due to their sensitivity to incoming seismic energy. The Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, is one of the most monitored volcanic systems worldwide. We compare ground elevation time series at Campi Flegrei with earthquake catalogues showing that uplift events at Campi Flegrei are associated with large regional earthquakes. Such association is supported by (yet non-definitive) binomial tests. Over a 70-year time window we identify 14 uplift events, 12 of them were preceded by an earthquake, and for 8 of them the earthquake-to-uplift timespan ranges from immediate responses to 1.2 yr. Such variability in the response delay may be due to the preparedness of the system with faster responses probably occurring in periods during which the Campi Flegrei system was already in a critical state. To investigate the process that may be responsible for the proposed association we simulate the propagation of elastic waves and show that passing body waves impose high dynamic strains at the roof of the magmatic reservoir of the Campi Flegrei at about 7 km depth. This may promote a short-lived embrittlement of the magma reservoir's carapace otherwise marked by a ductile behaviour. Such failure allows magma and exsolved volatiles to be released from the magmatic reservoir. The fluids, namely exsolved volatiles and/or melts, ascend through a nominally plastic zone above the magmatic reservoir. This mechanism and the associated inherent uncertainties require further investigations but the new concept already implies that geological processes triggered by passing seismic waves may become apparent several months after passage of the seismic waves.

Earthquake swarms reveal submarine magma unrest induced by distant mega-earthquakes: Andaman Sea region

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Špičák, Aleš; Vaněk, Jiří

2016-01-01

Roč. 116, February (2016), s. 155-163 ISSN 1367-9120 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : earthquake swarms * magma migration * submarine volcanic arc Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.335, year: 2016

76 FR 30956 - Outer Continental Shelf, Alaska OCS Region, Chukchi Sea Planning Area, Oil and Gas Lease Sale 193

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-27

... Point Hope et al., v. Salazar, No. 1:08-cv-00004-RRB (D. Alaska)]. The sale was conducted in February... Continental Shelf, Alaska OCS Region, Chukchi Sea Planning Area, Oil and Gas Lease Sale 193 AGENCY: Bureau of...: BOEMRE announces the availability of a Revised Draft SEIS, OCS Oil and Gas Lease Sale 193, Chukchi Sea...

Hydrothermal Petroleum in Active Continental Rift: Lake Chapala, Western Mexico, Initial Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Zarate-del Valle, P. F.; Simoneit, B. R.; Ramirez-Sanchez, H. U.

2003-12-01

Lake Chapala in western Mexico is located partially in the Citala Rift, which belongs to the well-known neotectonic Jalisco continental triple junction. The region is characterized by active volcanism (Ceboruco, Volcan de Fuego), tectonic (1995 earthquake, M=8, 40-50 mm to SW) and hydrothermal (San Juan Cosala & Villa Corona spas and La Calera sinter deposit) activities. Hydrothermal petroleum has been described in active continental rift (East African Rift) and marine spreading zones (Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California). In 1868 the Mexican local press reported that manifestations of bitumen were appearing in front of the Columba Cap on the mid south shore of Lake Chapala. This bitumen is linked to the lake bottom and when the water level decreases sufficiently it is possible to access these tar bodies as islands. Because of these manifestations the Mexican oil company (PEMEX) drilled an exploration well (2,348m) at Tizapan El Alto without success. Hydrothermal activity is evident in the tar island zone as three in-shore thermal springs (26.8 m depth, 48.5° C, pH 7.8 and oriented N-S). The preliminary analyses by GC-MS of the tar from these islands indicate hydrothermal petroleum derived from lake sedimentary organic matter, generated at low temperatures (150° -200° C). The tars contain no n-alkanes, no PAH or other aromatics, but a major UCM of branched and cyclic hydrocarbons and mature biomarkers derived from lacustrine biota. The biomarkers consist of mainly 17α (H),21β (H)-hopanes ranging from C27 to C34 (no C28), gammacerane, tricyclic terpanes (C20-C26), carotane and its cracking products, and drimanes (C14-C16). The biomarker composition indicates an organic matter source from bacteria and algae, typical of lacustrine ecosystems. 14C dating of samples from two tar islands yielded ages exceeding 40 kyrs, i.e., old carbon from hydrothermal/tectonic remobilization of bitumen from deeper horizons to the surface. The occurrence of hydrothermal petroleum in

Analysis of regional deformation and strain accumulation data adjacent to the San Andreas fault

Science.gov (United States)

Turcotte, Donald L.

1991-01-01

A new approach to the understanding of crustal deformation was developed under this grant. This approach combined aspects of fractals, chaos, and self-organized criticality to provide a comprehensive theory for deformation on distributed faults. It is hypothesized that crustal deformation is an example of comminution: Deformation takes place on a fractal distribution of faults resulting in a fractal distribution of seismicity. Our primary effort under this grant was devoted to developing an understanding of distributed deformation in the continental crust. An initial effort was carried out on the fractal clustering of earthquakes in time. It was shown that earthquakes do not obey random Poisson statistics, but can be approximated in many cases by coupled, scale-invariant fractal statistics. We applied our approach to the statistics of earthquakes in the New Hebrides region of the southwest Pacific because of the very high level of seismicity there. This work was written up and published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. This approach was also applied to the statistics of the seismicity on the San Andreas fault system.

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

New site selection for the immigrant transit of the post-disaster reconstruction of Wenchuan earthquake region

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Wunian; Hu, Guochao; Liu, Hanhu; Peng, Li

2009-06-01

The strong earthquake struck on 12 May 2008 destroyed numerous houses in Wenchuan, Sichuan, China. This earthquake escalated the scale of existing geological disasters, undermined the stability of earthquake-prone zones, and triggered landslides and many other hidden disasters. In addition, many aftershocks and heavy rainfalls have prompted secondary disasters and consequently, the actual damages have been doubled in terms of scale and magnitude. Since some regions there are no longer appropriate for people to live, temporary housing and post-disaster reconstruction are badly needed. Recent advances in remote sensing and geospatial technologies have promoted their successful applications in siting engineering. Because of different research backgrounds, geological disasters and vegetation density were rarely incorporated as primary parameters for siting assessment. Based on the principles of avoiding active faults and encouraging synthetic prevention of geological disasters, we performed a locating analysis using part of the Wenchuan County as a case. Six major parameters were used to build a siting model, including geological disasters, vegetation index, stream systems, faults, terrain slope, and elevation. The results show that the proposed method can provide useful information for decision-making in the selection of temporary housing and post-disaster reconstruction.

SEISMIC SITE RESPONSE ESTIMATION IN THE NEAR SOURCE REGION OF THE 2009 L’AQUILA, ITALY, EARTHQUAKE

Science.gov (United States)

Bertrand, E.; Azzara, R.; Bergamashi, F.; Bordoni, P.; Cara, F.; Cogliano, R.; Cultrera, G.; di Giulio, G.; Duval, A.; Fodarella, A.; Milana, G.; Pucillo, S.; Régnier, J.; Riccio, G.; Salichon, J.

2009-12-01

The 6th of April 2009, at 3:32 local time, a Mw 6.3 earthquake hit the Abruzzo region (central Italy) causing more than 300 casualties. The epicenter of the earthquake was 95km NE of Rome and 10km from the center of the city of L’Aquila, the administrative capital of the Abruzzo region. This city has a population of about 70,000 and was severely damaged by the earthquake, the total cost of the buildings damage being estimated around 3 Bn €. Historical masonry buildings particularly suffered from the seismic shaking, but some reinforced concrete structures from more modern construction were also heavily damaged. To better estimate the seismic solicitation of these structures during the earthquake, we deployed temporary arrays in the near source region. Downtown L’Aquila, as well as a rural quarter composed of ancient dwelling-centers located western L’Aquila (Roio area), have been instrumented. The array set up downtown consisted of nearly 25 stations including velocimetric and accelerometric sensors. In the Roio area, 6 stations operated for almost one month. The data has been processed in order to study the spectral ratios of the horizontal component of ground motion at the soil site and at a reference site, as well as the spectral ratio of the horizontal and the vertical movement at a single recording site. Downtown L’Aquila is set on a Quaternary fluvial terrace (breccias with limestone boulders and clasts in a marly matrix), which forms the left bank of the Aterno River and slopes down in the southwest direction towards the Aterno River. The alluvial are lying on lacustrine sediments reaching their maximum thickness (about 250m) in the center of L’Aquila. After De Luca et al. (2005), these quaternary deposits seem to lead in an important amplification factor in the low frequency range (0.5-0.6 Hz). However, the level of amplification varies strongly from one point to the other in the center of the city. This new experimentation allows new and more

Centroid moment tensor catalogue using a 3-D continental scale Earth model: Application to earthquakes in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Hejrani, Babak; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Fichtner, Andreas

2017-07-01

Although both earthquake mechanism and 3-D Earth structure contribute to the seismic wavefield, the latter is usually assumed to be layered in source studies, which may limit the quality of the source estimate. To overcome this limitation, we implement a method that takes advantage of a 3-D heterogeneous Earth model, recently developed for the Australasian region. We calculate centroid moment tensors (CMTs) for earthquakes in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Solomon Islands. Our method is based on a library of Green's functions for each source-station pair for selected Geoscience Australia and Global Seismic Network stations in the region, and distributed on a 3-D grid covering the seismicity down to 50 km depth. For the calculation of Green's functions, we utilize a spectral-element method for the solution of the seismic wave equation. Seismic moment tensors were calculated using least squares inversion, and the 3-D location of the centroid is found by grid search. Through several synthetic tests, we confirm a trade-off between the location and the correct input moment tensor components when using a 1-D Earth model to invert synthetics produced in a 3-D heterogeneous Earth. Our CMT catalogue for PNG in comparison to the global CMT shows a meaningful increase in the double-couple percentage (up to 70%). Another significant difference that we observe is in the mechanism of events with depth shallower then 15 km and Mw region.

Subduction zone earthquake probably triggered submarine hydrocarbon seepage offshore Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, David; José M., Mogollón; Michael, Strasser; Thomas, Pape; Gerhard, Bohrmann; Noemi, Fekete; Volkhard, Spiess; Sabine, Kasten

2014-05-01

Seepage of methane-dominated hydrocarbons is heterogeneous in space and time, and trigger mechanisms of episodic seep events are not well constrained. It is generally found that free hydrocarbon gas entering the local gas hydrate stability field in marine sediments is sequestered in gas hydrates. In this manner, gas hydrates can act as a buffer for carbon transport from the sediment into the ocean. However, the efficiency of gas hydrate-bearing sediments for retaining hydrocarbons may be corrupted: Hypothesized mechanisms include critical gas/fluid pressures beneath gas hydrate-bearing sediments, implying that these are susceptible to mechanical failure and subsequent gas release. Although gas hydrates often occur in seismically active regions, e.g., subduction zones, the role of earthquakes as potential triggers of hydrocarbon transport through gas hydrate-bearing sediments has hardly been explored. Based on a recent publication (Fischer et al., 2013), we present geochemical and transport/reaction-modelling data suggesting a substantial increase in upward gas flux and hydrocarbon emission into the water column following a major earthquake that occurred near the study sites in 1945. Calculating the formation time of authigenic barite enrichments identified in two sediment cores obtained from an anticlinal structure called "Nascent Ridge", we find they formed 38-91 years before sampling, which corresponds well to the time elapsed since the earthquake (62 years). Furthermore, applying a numerical model, we show that the local sulfate/methane transition zone shifted upward by several meters due to the increased methane flux and simulated sulfate profiles very closely match measured ones in a comparable time frame of 50-70 years. We thus propose a causal relation between the earthquake and the amplified gas flux and present reflection seismic data supporting our hypothesis that co-seismic ground shaking induced mechanical fracturing of gas hydrate-bearing sediments

Establishment of data base of regional seismic recordings from earthquakes, chemical explosions and nuclear explosions in the Former Soviet Union

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ermolenko, N.A.; Kopnichev, Yu.F.; Kunakov, V.G.; Kunakova, O.K.; Rakhmatullin, M.Kh.; Sokolova, I.N.; Vybornyy, Zh.I. [AN SSSR, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. Fiziki Zemli

1995-06-01

In this report results of work on establishment of a data base of regional seismic recordings from earthquakes, chemical explosions and nuclear explosions in the former Soviet Union are described. This work was carried out in the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of the Joint Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The recording system, methods of investigations and primary data processing are described in detail. The largest number of digital records was received by the permanent seismic station Talgar, situated in the northern Tien Shan, 20 km to the east of Almaty city. More than half of the records are seismograms of underground nuclear explosions and chemical explosions. The nuclear explosions were recorded mainly from the Semipalatinsk test site. In addition, records of the explosions from the Chinese test site Lop Nor and industrial nuclear explosions from the West Siberia region were obtained. Four records of strong chemical explosions were picked out (two of them have been produced at the Semipalatinsk test site and two -- in Uzbekistan). We also obtained 16 records of crustal earthquakes, mainly from the Altai region, close to the Semipalatinsk test site, and also from the West China region, close to the Lop Nor test site. In addition, a small number of records of earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions, received by arrays of temporary stations, that have been working in the southern Kazakhstan region are included in this report. Parameters of the digital seismograms and file structure are described. Possible directions of future work on the digitizing of unique data archive are discussed.

Testing and comparison of three frequency-based magnitude estimating parameters for earthquake early warning based events in the Yunnan region, China in 2014

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jianjing; Li, Hongjie

2018-06-01

To mitigate potential seismic disasters in the Yunnan region, China, building up suitable magnitude estimation scaling laws for an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) is in high demand. In this paper, the records from the main and after-shocks of the Yingjiang earthquake (M W 5.9), the Ludian earthquake (M W 6.2) and the Jinggu earthquake (M W 6.1), which occurred in Yunnan in 2014, were used to develop three estimators, including the maximum of the predominant period ({{τ }{{p}}}\\max ), the characteristic period (τ c) and the log-average period (τ log), for estimating earthquake magnitude. The correlations between these three frequency-based parameters and catalog magnitudes were developed, compared and evaluated against previous studies. The amplitude and period of seismic waves might be amplified in the Ludian mountain-canyon area by multiple reflections and resonance, leading to excessive values of the calculated parameters, which are consistent with Sichuan’s scaling. As a result, τ log was best correlated with magnitude and τ c had the highest slope of regression equation, while {{τ }{{p}}}\\max performed worst with large scatter and less sensitivity for the change of magnitude. No evident saturation occurred in the case of M 6.1 and M 6.2 in this study. Even though both τ c and τ log performed similarly and can well reflect the size of the Earthquake, τ log has slightly fewer prediction errors for small scale earthquakes (M ≤ 4.5), which was also observed by previous research. Our work offers an insight into the feasibility of a EEWS in Yunnan, China, and this study shows that it is necessary to build up an appropriate scaling law suitable for the warning region.

Prevention of strong earthquakes: Goal or utopia?

Science.gov (United States)

Mukhamediev, Sh. A.

2010-11-01

In the present paper, we consider ideas suggesting various kinds of industrial impact on the close-to-failure block of the Earth’s crust in order to break a pending strong earthquake (PSE) into a number of smaller quakes or aseismic slips. Among the published proposals on the prevention of a forthcoming strong earthquake, methods based on water injection and vibro influence merit greater attention as they are based on field observations and the results of laboratory tests. In spite of this, the cited proofs are, for various reasons, insufficient to acknowledge the proposed techniques as highly substantiated; in addition, the physical essence of these methods has still not been fully understood. First, the key concept of the methods, namely, the release of the accumulated stresses (or excessive elastic energy) in the source region of a forthcoming strong earthquake, is open to objection. If we treat an earthquake as a phenomenon of a loss in stability, then, the heterogeneities of the physicomechanical properties and stresses along the existing fault or its future trajectory, rather than the absolute values of stresses, play the most important role. In the present paper, this statement is illustrated by the classical examples of stable and unstable fractures and by the examples of the calculated stress fields, which were realized in the source regions of the tsunamigenic earthquakes of December 26, 2004 near the Sumatra Island and of September 29, 2009 near the Samoa Island. Here, just before the earthquakes, there were no excessive stresses in the source regions. Quite the opposite, the maximum shear stresses τmax were close to their minimum value, compared to τmax in the adjacent territory. In the present paper, we provide quantitative examples that falsify the theory of the prevention of PSE in its current form. It is shown that the measures for the prevention of PSE, even when successful for an already existing fault, can trigger or accelerate a catastrophic

Temporal and spatial distributions of precursory seismicity rate changes in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region: implication for upcoming hazardous earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Puangjaktha, Prayot; Pailoplee, Santi

2018-01-01

To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes ( N) and time window ( T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here ( N = 50 events and T w = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.

A new model on the cause of Tangshan earthquakes in 1976

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jian

2001-09-01

In this paper the shortages of explanations on the cause of Tangshan earthquakes in 1976 are pointed out. Earthquake phenomena around Tangshan earthquakes are analyzed synthetically, it is noticed that the most prominent seismic phenomenon are seismic denseness of M L=4, but M L=3 and M L=2 is not active in the same temporal-spatial interval, which occurred from 1973 to 1975. We think that the phenomenon should correspond to relative integrity of the crust medium under higher regional stress. Assuming that the seismicity in circumjacent region could reflect the jostling extent of surrounding plates toward the Chinese mainland, it is inferred that there are multi-dynamical processes in North China region in 1970s, which supply the basic dynamical source to Tangshan earthquakes. A model of multi-dynamical processes and local weakening of the crust is proposed to explain the cause of Tangshan earthquakes. This model could unpuzzle many seismic phenomena related to Tangshan earthquakes.

Modelling the elements of country vulnerability to earthquake disasters.

Science.gov (United States)

Asef, M R

2008-09-01

Earthquakes have probably been the most deadly form of natural disaster in the past century. Diversity of earthquake specifications in terms of magnitude, intensity and frequency at the semicontinental scale has initiated various kinds of disasters at a regional scale. Additionally, diverse characteristics of countries in terms of population size, disaster preparedness, economic strength and building construction development often causes an earthquake of a certain characteristic to have different impacts on the affected region. This research focuses on the appropriate criteria for identifying the severity of major earthquake disasters based on some key observed symptoms. Accordingly, the article presents a methodology for identification and relative quantification of severity of earthquake disasters. This has led to an earthquake disaster vulnerability model at the country scale. Data analysis based on this model suggested a quantitative, comparative and meaningful interpretation of the vulnerability of concerned countries, and successfully explained which countries are more vulnerable to major disasters.

Has El Salvador Fault Zone produced M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes? The 1719 El Salvador earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Canora, C.; Martínez-Díaz, J.; Álvarez-Gómez, J.; Villamor, P.; Ínsua-Arévalo, J.; Alonso-Henar, J.; Capote, R.

2013-05-01

Historically, large earthquakes, Mw ≥ 7.0, in the Εl Salvador area have been attributed to activity in the Cocos-Caribbean subduction zone. Τhis is correct for most of the earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.5. However, recent paleoseismic evidence points to the existence of large earthquakes associated with rupture of the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, an Ε-W oriented strike slip fault system that extends for 150 km through central Εl Salvador. Τo calibrate our results from paleoseismic studies, we have analyzed the historical seismicity of the area. In particular, we suggest that the 1719 earthquake can be associated with paleoseismic activity evidenced in the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone. Α reinterpreted isoseismal map for this event suggests that the damage reported could have been a consequence of the rupture of Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, rather than rupture of the subduction zone. Τhe isoseismal is not different to other upper crustal earthquakes in similar tectonovolcanic environments. We thus challenge the traditional assumption that only the subduction zone is capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 in this region. Τhis result has broad implications for future risk management in the region. Τhe potential occurrence of strong ground motion, significantly higher and closer to the Salvadorian populations that those assumed to date, must be considered in seismic hazard assessment studies in this area.

Slip pulse and resonance of Kathmandu basin during the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal imaged with space geodesy

Science.gov (United States)

Galetzka, John; Melgar, D.; Genrich, J.F.; Geng, J.; Owen, S.; Lindsey, E. O.; Xu, X.; Bock, Y.; Avouac, J.-P.; Adhikari, L. B.; Upreti, B. N.; Pratt-Sitaula, B.; Bhattarai, T. N.; Sitaula, B. P.; Moore, A.; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Szeliga, W.; Normandeau, J.; Fend, M.; Flouzat, M; Bollinger, L.; Shrestha, P.; Koirala, B.; Gautam, U.; Bhatterai, M.; Gupta, R.; Kandel, T.; Timsina, C.; Sapkota, S.N.; Rajaure, S.; Maharjan, N.

2015-01-01

Detailed geodetic imaging of earthquake rupture enhances our understanding of earthquake physics and induced ground shaking. The April 25, 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake is the first example of a large continental megathrust rupture beneath a high-rate (5 Hz) GPS network. We use GPS and InSAR data to model the earthquake rupture as a slip pulse of ~20 km width, ~6 s duration, and with peak sliding velocity of 1.1 m/s that propagated toward Kathmandu basin at ~3.3 km/s over ~140 km. The smooth slip onset, indicating a large ~5 m slip-weakening distance, caused moderate ground shaking at high >1Hz frequencies (~16% g) and limited damage to regular dwellings. Whole basin resonance at 4-5 s period caused collapse of tall structures, including cultural artifacts.

Incorporating human-triggered earthquake risks into energy and water policies

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, C. D.; Seeber, L.; Jacob, K. H.

2010-12-01

A comprehensive understanding of earthquake risks in urbanized regions requires an accurate assessment of both urban vulnerabilities and hazards from earthquakes, including ones whose timing might be affected by human activities. Socioeconomic risks associated with human-triggered earthquakes are often misconstrued and receive little scientific, legal, and public attention. Worldwide, more than 200 damaging earthquakes, associated with industrialization and urbanization, were documented since the 20th century. Geomechanical pollution due to large-scale geoengineering activities can advance the clock of earthquakes, trigger new seismic events or even shot down natural background seismicity. Activities include mining, hydrocarbon production, fluid injections, water reservoir impoundments and deep-well geothermal energy production. This type of geohazard has impacts on human security on a regional and national level. Some planned or considered future engineering projects raise particularly strong concerns about triggered earthquakes, such as for instance, sequestration of carbon dioxide by injecting it deep underground and large-scale natural gas production in the Marcellus shale in the Appalacian basin. Worldwide examples of earthquakes are discussed, including their associated losses of human life and monetary losses (e.g., 1989 Newcastle and Volkershausen earthquakes, 2001 Killari earthquake, 2006 Basel earthquake, 2010 Wenchuan earthquake). An overview is given on global statistics of human-triggered earthquakes, including depths and time delay of triggering. Lastly, strategies are described, including risk mitigation measures such as urban planning adaptations and seismic hazard mapping.

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Laruelle, G.G.; Dürr, H.H.; Lauerwald, R.; Hartmann, J.; Slomp, C.P.; Goossens, N.; Regnier, P.A.G.

2013-01-01

Past characterizations of the land–ocean continuum were constructed either from a continental perspective through an analysis of watershed river basin properties (COSCATs: COastal Segmentation and related CATchments) or from an oceanic perspective, through a regionalization of the proximal and

DEFORMATION WAVES AS A TRIGGER MECHANISM OF SEISMIC ACTIVITY IN SEISMIC ZONES OF THE CONTINENTAL LITHOSPHERE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. I. Sherman

2013-01-01

fault zones, a brief description of the method for assessment of spatial and temporal regularities in locations of earthquake epicentres in zones of dynamic influence of faults is provided. The method can be applied to estimate a dominating direction of movement of the epicentres, which corresponds to the phase velocity of the deformation wave disturbing meta-stability of the fault-block medium, leading to displacement of neighbouring blocks and thus causing a seismic event (Fig. 14. By integration of vectors of migration of epicentres at active faults, it is possible to demonstrate a pattern of vectors of movements of the deformation waves in the seismic zones of the continental lithosphere (Fig. 18.Regional and trans-regional deformation waves are analyzed. For seismic zones of Central Asia, vectors of deformation waves are established, a scheme showing regional orientations of the waves is developed, and main wave parameters (length and time period are estimated (Fig. 19. Three depth levels of deformation waves are distinguished: the whole lithosphere, the upper brittle part of the lithosphere, and the top part of the brittle layer (Fig. 20.It is concluded that the leading factor of gradual accumulation of earthquake foci, which takes place regularly in space and time in seismic zones, are deformation waves that influence the geophysical medium. This understanding of the fundamental basis of seismic process needs to be more thoroughly justified with application of modern concepts, its revised phenomenological concept and development of a model representing a seismic zones as a geologically and geophysically independent structure of the lithosphere, which has its specific properties, based on which testing of the lithosphere becomes possible for purposes of potential earthquake prediction.

Dancing Earthquake Science Assists Recovery from the Christchurch Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Egan, Candice J.; Quigley, Mark C.

2015-01-01

The 2010-2012 Christchurch (Canterbury) earthquakes in New Zealand caused loss of life and psychological distress in residents throughout the region. In 2011, student dancers of the Hagley Dance Company and dance professionals choreographed the performance "Move: A Seismic Journey" for the Christchurch Body Festival that explored…

The HayWired earthquake scenario—We can outsmart disaster

Science.gov (United States)

Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Wein, Anne M.; Cox, Dale A.; Porter, Keith A.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Bruce, Jennifer L.; LaPointe, Drew

2018-04-18

The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault is along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. One way to learn about a large earthquake without experiencing it is to conduct a scientifically realistic scenario. The USGS and its partners in the HayWired Coalition and the HayWired Campaign are working to energize residents and businesses to engage in ongoing and new efforts to prepare the region for such a future earthquake.

Pakistan’s Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards Potential Impact on Infrastructure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GEORGE PARARAS-CARAYANNIS

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Interaction of the Indian, Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates has resulted in the formation of major active fault systems in South Asia. Compression along the tectonic boundaries results in thrust or reverse type of faulting and zones of crustal deformation characterized by high seismic activity and continuing Orogenesis. The more intense seismic activity occurs near regions of thrust faulting which is developing at the Himalayan foothills. In northern Pakistan, the Hindu Kush Mountains converge with the Karakoram Range to form a part of the Himalayan mountain system. Northern, western as well as southern Pakistan, Kashmir and northern India and Afghanistan are along such zones of high seismic activity. In Pakistan, most of the earthquakes occur in the north and western regions along the boundary of the Indian tectonic plate with the Iranian and Afghan micro-plates. The active zone extends from the Makran region in the southwest to the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxial bend in the north. Southwest Pakistan is vulnerable to both earthquake and tsunami hazards. In 2005, earthquakes devastated northern Pakistan and Kashmir and severely affected the cities of Muzaffarabad, Islamadad and Rawalpindi, causing severe destruction to the infrastructure of the northern region. A major earthquake along an extensive transform fault system in 1935 destroyed the city Quetta and the adjoining region. A major earthquake along the northern Arabian sea in 1945 generated a very destructive tsunami along the coasts of Baluchistan and Sindh Provinces. The region near Karachi is vulnerable as it is located near four major faults where destructive earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred in the past. Given Pakistan’s vulnerability and extensive infrastructure development in recent years, the present study reviews briefly the earthquake and tsunami risk factors and assesses the impact that such disasters can have on the country’s critical infrastructure - which includes

Sediment trace metal profiles in lakes of Killarney Park, Canada from regional to continental influence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belzile, Nelson; Chen Yuwei; Gunn, John M.; Dixit, Sushil S.

2004-01-01

The lakes in Killarney Provincial Park (KPP) located 40-60 km southwest of Sudbury, Ontario are beginning to recover after decades of being severely affected by acidification and atmospheric pollutants. Detailed profiles of acid-recoverable trace elements (As. Cd, Cu, Co. Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) were obtained after aqua regia digestion and ICP-OES analysis of sediment cores taken from six Park lakes. Results permitted the identification of two types of profiles. The first type applies to elements such as Fe, Mn, As and Co for which historical deposition and recent recovery are strongly masked by diagenetic remobilization. The second type of profile applies to elements such as Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn on which the history of industrialisation in North America and mining activities in Sudbury can be superimposed. Based on sediment data of trace elements less affected by diagenetic remobilization (Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn), chemical recovery indices can be estimated from depth profiles. Indices of maximum (C p ) and surface (C s ) contamination were calculated by dividing the concentration of a given metal by the pre-industrial level. The ratio of the two indices provided a simple estimation of the chemical recovery of lakes that does not consider the influence of the watershed or the lake pH. Profiles of metals in sediment of KPP complement the water quality monitoring data and tend to indicate that this area is in transition from dominant influence of regional pollution sources to becoming controlled by continental atmospheric deposition. - Lakes in Killarney Park are in transition from being impacted by regional pollution to being controlled by continental atmospheric deposition

How fault geometry controls earthquake magnitude

Science.gov (United States)

Bletery, Q.; Thomas, A.; Karlstrom, L.; Rempel, A. W.; Sladen, A.; De Barros, L.

2016-12-01

Recent large megathrust earthquakes, such as the Mw9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in 2004 and the Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in 2011, astonished the scientific community. The first event occurred in a relatively low-convergence-rate subduction zone where events of its size were unexpected. The second event involved 60 m of shallow slip in a region thought to be aseismicaly creeping and hence incapable of hosting very large magnitude earthquakes. These earthquakes highlight gaps in our understanding of mega-earthquake rupture processes and the factors controlling their global distribution. Here we show that gradients in dip angle exert a primary control on mega-earthquake occurrence. We calculate the curvature along the major subduction zones of the world and show that past mega-earthquakes occurred on flat (low-curvature) interfaces. A simplified analytic model demonstrates that shear strength heterogeneity increases with curvature. Stress loading on flat megathrusts is more homogeneous and hence more likely to be released simultaneously over large areas than on highly-curved faults. Therefore, the absence of asperities on large faults might counter-intuitively be a source of higher hazard.

Bridge seismic retrofit measures considering subduction zone earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-07-01

Over the years, earthquakes have exposed the vulnerability of reinforced concrete structures under : seismic loads. The recent occurrence of highly devastating earthquakes near instrumented regions, e.g. 2010 Maule, Chile : and 2011 Tohoku, Japan, ha...

Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

Science.gov (United States)

Schorlemmer, D.; Jordan, T. H.; Zechar, J. D.; Gerstenberger, M. C.; Wiemer, S.; Maechling, P. J.

2006-12-01

Earthquake prediction is one of the most difficult problems in physical science and, owing to its societal implications, one of the most controversial. The study of earthquake predictability has been impeded by the lack of an adequate experimental infrastructure---the capability to conduct scientific prediction experiments under rigorous, controlled conditions and evaluate them using accepted criteria specified in advance. To remedy this deficiency, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) is working with its international partners, which include the European Union (through the Swiss Seismological Service) and New Zealand (through GNS Science), to develop a virtual, distributed laboratory with a cyberinfrastructure adequate to support a global program of research on earthquake predictability. This Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) will extend the testing activities of SCEC's Working Group on Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models, from which we will present first results. CSEP will support rigorous procedures for registering prediction experiments on regional and global scales, community-endorsed standards for assessing probability-based and alarm-based predictions, access to authorized data sets and monitoring products from designated natural laboratories, and software to allow researchers to participate in prediction experiments. CSEP will encourage research on earthquake predictability by supporting an environment for scientific prediction experiments that allows the predictive skill of proposed algorithms to be rigorously compared with standardized reference methods and data sets. It will thereby reduce the controversies surrounding earthquake prediction, and it will allow the results of prediction experiments to be communicated to the scientific community, governmental agencies, and the general public in an appropriate research context.

Soil structure interactions of eastern U.S. type earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang Chen; Serhan, S.

1991-01-01

Two types of earthquakes have occurred in the eastern US in the past. One of them was the infrequent major events such as the 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquakes, or the 1886 Charleston Earthquake. The other type was the frequent shallow earthquakes with high frequency, short duration and high accelerations. Two eastern US nuclear power plants, V.C Summer and Perry, went through extensive licensing effort to obtain fuel load licenses after this type of earthquake was recorded on sites and exceeded the design bases beyond 10 hertz region. This paper discusses the soil-structure interactions of the latter type of earthquakes

Fault-Magma Interactions during Early Continental Rifting: Seismicity of the Magadi-Natron-Manyara basins, Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstein, A.; Oliva, S. J.; Ebinger, C.; Aman, M.; Lambert, C.; Roecker, S. W.; Tiberi, C.; Muirhead, J.

2017-12-01

Although magmatism may occur during the earliest stages of continental rifting, its role in strain accommodation remains weakly constrained by largely 2D studies. We analyze seismicity data from a 13-month, 39-station broadband seismic array to determine the role of magma intrusion on state-of-stress and strain localization, and their along-strike variations. Precise earthquake locations using cluster analyses and a new 3D velocity model reveal lower crustal earthquakes along projections of steep border faults that degas CO2. Seismicity forms several disks interpreted as sills at 6-10 km below a monogenetic cone field. The sills overlie a lower crustal magma chamber that may feed eruptions at Oldoinyo Lengai volcano. After determining a new ML scaling relation, we determine a b-value of 0.87 ± 0.03. Focal mechanisms for 66 earthquakes, and a longer time period of relocated earthquakes from global arrays reveal an along-axis stress rotation of 50 o ( N150 oE) in the magmatically active zone. Using Kostrov summation of local and teleseismic mechanisms, we find opening directions of N122ºE and N92ºE north and south of the magmatically active zone. The stress rotation facilitates strain transfer from border fault systems, the locus of early stage deformation, to the zone of magma intrusion in the central rift. Our seismic, structural, and geochemistry results indicate that frequent lower crustal earthquakes are promoted by elevated pore pressures from volatile degassing along border faults, and hydraulic fracture around the margins of magma bodies. Earthquakes are largely driven by stress state around inflating magma bodies, and more dike intrusions with surface faulting, eruptions, and earthquakes are expected.

The 2012 Mw5.6 earthquake in Sofia seismogenic zone - is it a slow earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Raykova, Plamena; Solakov, Dimcho; Slavcheva, Krasimira; Simeonova, Stela; Aleksandrova, Irena

2017-04-01

Recently our understanding of tectonic faulting has been shaken by the discoveries of seismic tremor, low frequency earthquakes, slow slip events, and other models of fault slip. These phenomenas represent models of failure that were thought to be non-existent and theoretically impossible only a few years ago. Slow earthquakes are seismic phenomena in which the rupture of geological faults in the earth's crust occurs gradually without creating strong tremors. Despite the growing number of observations of slow earthquakes their origin remains unresolved. Studies show that the duration of slow earthquakes ranges from a few seconds to a few hundred seconds. The regular earthquakes with which most people are familiar release a burst of built-up stress in seconds, slow earthquakes release energy in ways that do little damage. This study focus on the characteristics of the Mw5.6 earthquake occurred in Sofia seismic zone on May 22nd, 2012. The Sofia area is the most populated, industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The Sofia seismic zone is located in South-western Bulgaria - the area with pronounce tectonic activity and proved crustal movement. In 19th century the city of Sofia (situated in the centre of the Sofia seismic zone) has experienced two strong earthquakes with epicentral intensity of 10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK64).The 2012 quake occurs in an area characterized by a long quiescence (of 95 years) for moderate events. Moreover, a reduced number of small earthquakes have also been registered in the recent past. The Mw5.6 earthquake is largely felt on the territory of Bulgaria and neighbouring countries. No casualties and severe injuries have been reported. Mostly moderate damages were observed in the cities of Pernik and Sofia and their surroundings. These observations could be assumed indicative for a

Time-predictable model applicability for earthquake occurrence in northeast India and vicinity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Panthi

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Northeast India and its vicinity is one of the seismically most active regions in the world, where a few large and several moderate earthquakes have occurred in the past. In this study the region of northeast India has been considered for an earthquake generation model using earthquake data as reported by earthquake catalogues National Geophysical Data Centre, National Earthquake Information Centre, United States Geological Survey and from book prepared by Gupta et al. (1986 for the period 1906–2008. The events having a surface wave magnitude of M_s≥5.5 were considered for statistical analysis. In this region, nineteen seismogenic sources were identified by the observation of clustering of earthquakes. It is observed that the time interval between the two consecutive mainshocks depends upon the preceding mainshock magnitude (M_p and not on the following mainshock (M_f. This result corroborates the validity of time-predictable model in northeast India and its adjoining regions. A linear relation between the logarithm of repeat time (T of two consecutive events and the magnitude of the preceding mainshock is established in the form LogT = cM_p+a, where "c" is a positive slope of line and "a" is function of minimum magnitude of the earthquake considered. The values of the parameters "c" and "a" are estimated to be 0.21 and 0.35 in northeast India and its adjoining regions. The less value of c than the average implies that the earthquake occurrence in this region is different from those of plate boundaries. The result derived can be used for long term seismic hazard estimation in the delineated seismogenic regions.

How Do Regional Stress Changes Following Megathrust Events Affect Active Retroarc Tectonics? A Case Study of the 27 February 2010 Mw 6.1 Salta Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

McFarland, P. K.; Bennett, R. A.

2017-12-01

The 27 February 2010 M­­w 6.1 Salta earthquake occurred in the active retroarc fold-thrust belt of northwest Argentina approximately 9 hours after and 1500 km away from the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake that occurred off the coast of central Chile. It has been proposed that the Salta earthquake occurred on a fault that was already at or near failure at the time of the Maule event, and the Maule earthquake simply advanced the seismic cycle of the fault. In this study, we examine a transient signal in the east component of the position time series for the continuously operating GPS (cGPS) station UNSA, which lies approximately 32 km northeast of the Salta earthquake epicenter. The transient signal is observed in the roughly 2.3 years prior to the Salta earthquake. It begins immediately following the 11 November 2007 Mw 7.7 Tocopilla megathrust event that occurred about 550 km due west of Salta on the Nazca-South America subduction interface and terminates abruptly after the Salta earthquake. We use the published relocated main shock and aftershock hypocenters determined using data from a local seismic network (INPRES) along with the published main shock focal mechanism to demonstrate that the Salta earthquake likely occurred on the Golgota Fault, a N-S striking and steeply-east-dipping reverse fault. Further, we use elastic dislocation modeling to show that rupture on the Golgota Fault is consistent with the co-seismic offsets observed at the surrounding cGPS stations. We propose that the transient signal observed at station UNSA may be due to initiation or acceleration of interseismic strain accumulation on the Golgota Fault at mid-crustal depths following a change in the regional stress field associated with the Tocopilla megathrust earthquake. Finally, we use published rupture models for both the Tocopilla and Maule events to demonstrate that the regional static Coulomb stress change following each of these megathrusts is consistent with our proposed model.

3D Crust and Uppermost Mantle Structure beneath Tian Shan Region from ambient noise and earthquake surface waves

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, X.; Wen, L.

2017-12-01

As a typical active intracontinental mountain range in Central Asia, Tian Shan Mt serves as the prototype in studying geodynamic processes and mechanism of intracontinental mountain building. We study 3D crust and the uppermost mantle structure beneath Tian Shan region using ambient noise and earthquake surface waves. Our dataset includes vertical component records of 62 permanent broadband seismic stations operated by the Earthquake Administration of China. Firstly, we calculate two-year stacked Cross-Correlation Functions (CCFs) of ambient noise records between the stations. The CCFs are treated as the Empirical Green's Functions (EGFs) of each station pair, from which we measured phase velocities of fundamental-mode Rayleigh wave in the period of 3-40 s using a frequency-time analysis method. Secondly, we collect surface wave data from tele-seismic events with Mw > 5.5 and depth shallower than 200 km and measure phase velocities of the fundamental-mode of Rayleigh wave in the period of 30-150 s using a two-station method. Finally, we combine the phase velocity measurements from ambient noise and earthquake surface waves, obtain lateral isotropic phase velocity maps at different periods based on tomography and invert a 3D Vsv model of crust and uppermost mantle down to about 150 km using a Monte Carlo Inversion method. We will discuss our inversion results in detail, as well as their implications to the tectonics in the region.

Stress triggering and the Canterbury earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Steacy, Sandy; Jiménez, Abigail; Holden, Caroline

2014-01-01

The Canterbury earthquake sequence, which includes the devastating Christchurch event of 2011 February, has to date led to losses of around 40 billion NZ dollars. The location and severity of the earthquakes was a surprise to most inhabitants as the seismic hazard model was dominated by an expected Mw > 8 earthquake on the Alpine fault and an Mw 7.5 earthquake on the Porters Pass fault, 150 and 80 km to the west of Christchurch. The sequence to date has included an Mw = 7.1 earthquake and 3 Mw ≥ 5.9 events which migrated from west to east. Here we investigate whether the later events are consistent with stress triggering and whether a simple stress map produced shortly after the first earthquake would have accurately indicated the regions where the subsequent activity occurred. We find that 100 per cent of M > 5.5 earthquakes occurred in positive stress areas computed using a slip model for the first event that was available within 10 d of its occurrence. We further find that the stress changes at the starting points of major slip patches of post-Darfield main events are consistent with triggering although this is not always true at the hypocentral locations. Our results suggest that Coulomb stress changes contributed to the evolution of the Canterbury sequence and we note additional areas of increased stress in the Christchurch region and on the Porters Pass fault.

A new perspective on the generation of the 2016 M6.7 Kaohsiung earthquake, southwestern Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhi

2017-04-01

In order to investigate the likely generation mechanism of the 2016 M6.7 Kaohsiung earthquake, a large number of high-quality travel times from P- and S-wave source-receiver pairs are used jointly in this study to invert three-dimensional (3-D) seismic velocity (Vp, Vs) and Poisson's ratio structures at high resolution. We also calculated crack density, saturate fracture, and bulk-sound velocity from our inverted Vp, Vs, and σgodels. In this way, multi-geophysical parameter imaging revealed that the 2016 Kaohsiung earthquake occurred along a distinctive edge portion exhibiting high-to-low variations in these parameters in both horizontal and vertical directions across the hypocenter. We consider that a slow velocity and high-σ body that has high ɛ and somewhat high ζ anomalies above the hypocenter under the Coastal Plain represents fluids contained in the young fold-and-thrust belt associated with the passive Asian continental margin in southwestern Taiwan. Intriguing, a continuous low Vp and Vs zone with high Poisson's ratio, crack density and saturate fracturegnomalies across the Laonung and Chishan faults is also clearly imaged in the northwestern upper crust beneath the Coastal Plain and Western Foothills as far as the southeastern lower crust under the Central Range. We therefore propose that this southeastern extending weakened zone was mainly the result of a fluid intrusion either from the young fold-and-thrust belt the shallow crust or the subducted Eurasian continental (EC) plate in the lower crust and uppermost mantle. We suggest that fluid intrusion into the upper Oligocene to Pleistocene shallow marine and clastic shelf units of the Eurasian continental crust and/or the relatively thin uppermost part of the transitional Pleistocene-Holocene foreland due to the subduction of the EC plate along the deformation front played a key role in earthquake generation in southwestern Taiwan. Such fluid penetration would reduce Vp, and Vs while increasing

Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul S.; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike

2011-01-01

Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

Landslide maps and seismic noise: Rockmass weakening caused by shallow earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Uchida, Tara; Marc, Odin; Sens-Schönfelder, Christoph; Sawazaki, Kaoru; Hobiger, Manuel; Hovius, Niels

2015-04-01

Some studies have suggested that the shaking and deformation associated with earthquake would result in a temporary increased hillslope erodibility. However very few data have been able to clarify such effect. We present integrated geomorphic data constraining an elevated landslide rate following 4 continental shallow earthquakes, the Mw 6.9 Finisterre (1993), the Mw 7.6 ChiChi (1999), the Mw 6.6 Niigata (2004) and the Mw 6.8 Iwate-Miyagi (2008) earthquakes. We constrained the magnitude, the recovery time and somewhat the mechanism at the source of this higher landslide risk. We provide some evidences excluding aftershocks or rain forcing intensity as possible mechanism and leaving subsurface weakening as the most likely. The landslide data suggest that this ground strength weakening is not limited to the soil cover but also affect the shallow bedrock. Additionally, we used ambient noise autocorrelation techniques to monitor shallow subsurface seismic velocity within the epicentral area of three of those earthquakes. For most stations we observe a velocity drop followed by a recovery processes of several years in fair agreement with the recovery time estimated based on landslide observation. Thus a common processes could alter the strength of the first 10m of soil/rock and simultaneously drive the landslide rate increase and the seismic velocity drop. The ability to firmly demonstrate this link require additional constraints on the seismic signal interpretation but would provide a very useful tool for post-earthquake risk managment.

Earthquake Signal Visible in GRACE Data

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

[figure removed for brevity, see original site] Figure1 This figure shows the effect of the December 2004 great Sumatra earthquake on the Earth's gravity field as observed by GRACE. The signal is expressed in terms of the relative acceleration of the two GRACE satellites, in this case a few nanometers per second squared, or about 1 billionth of the acceleration we experience everyday at the Earth's surface.GRACE observations show comparable signals in the region of the earthquake. Other natural variations are also apparent in the expected places, whereas no other significant change would be expected in the region of the earthquake GRACE, twin satellites launched in March 2002, are making detailed measurements of Earth's gravity field which will lead to discoveries about gravity and Earth's natural systems. These discoveries could have far-reaching benefits to society and the world's population.

Investigation of Backprojection Uncertainties With M6 Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Wenyuan; Shearer, Peter M.

2017-10-01

We investigate possible biasing effects of inaccurate timing corrections on teleseismic P wave backprojection imaging of large earthquake ruptures. These errors occur because empirically estimated time shifts based on aligning P wave first arrivals are exact only at the hypocenter and provide approximate corrections for other parts of the rupture. Using the Japan subduction zone as a test region, we analyze 46 M6-M7 earthquakes over a 10 year period, including many aftershocks of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake, performing waveform cross correlation of their initial P wave arrivals to obtain hypocenter timing corrections to global seismic stations. We then compare backprojection images for each earthquake using its own timing corrections with those obtained using the time corrections from other earthquakes. This provides a measure of how well subevents can be resolved with backprojection of a large rupture as a function of distance from the hypocenter. Our results show that backprojection is generally very robust and that the median subevent location error is about 25 km across the entire study region (˜700 km). The backprojection coherence loss and location errors do not noticeably converge to zero even when the event pairs are very close (<20 km). This indicates that most of the timing differences are due to 3-D structure close to each of the hypocenter regions, which limits the effectiveness of attempts to refine backprojection images using aftershock calibration, at least in this region.

The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

OpenAIRE

Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

2018-01-01

The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions aroun...

Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Stammer, Detlef; Cazenave, Anny; Ponte, Rui M; Tamisiea, Mark E

2013-01-01

Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.

Pore Pressure Diffusion as a possible mechanism for the Ag. Ioanis 2001 earthquake swarm activity (Gulf of Corinth, Central Greece).

Science.gov (United States)

Vallianatos, F.; Michas, G.; Papadakis, G.; Sammonds, P.

2012-04-01

The Gulf of Corinth rift (Central Greece) is one of the most seismotectonically active areas in Europe (Ambraseys and Jackson, 1990; 1997), with an important continental N-S extension of about 13 mm/yr and 6 mm/yr at the west and east part respectively (Clarke et al., 1997a). The seismicity of the area includes 5 main earthquakes of magnitude greater than 5.8 since 1960. In the western part of the rift, where the extension reaches its maximum value, earthquake swarms are often being observed (Bourouis and Cornet, 2009). Such an earthquake crisis has been occurred on 2001 at the southern margin of the west part of the rift. The crisis lasted about 100 days with a major event the Ag. Ioanis earthquake (4.3 Mw) on 8th of April 2001 (Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010). The possible relation between fluids flow and the observed earthquake swarms at the west part of the Gulf of Corinth rift has been discussed in the works of Bourouis and Cornet (2009) and Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen (2010). In the present work we examine the spatiotemporal properties of the Ag. Ioanis 2001 earthquake swarm, using data from the CRL network (http://crlab.eu/). We connect these properties to a mechanism due to pore pressure diffusion (Shapiro et al., 1997) and we estimate the hydraulic diffusivity and the permeability of the surrounding rocks. A back front of the seismicity (Parotidis et al., 2004) is also been observed, related to the migration of seismicity and the development of a quiescence region near the area of the initial pore pressure perturbation. Moreover, anisotropy of the hydraulic diffusivity has been observed, revealing the heterogeneity of the surrounding rocks and the fracture systems. This anisotropy is consistent in direction with the fault zone responsible for the Ag. Ioanis earthquake (Pacchiani and Lyon-Caen, 2010). Our results indicate that fluids flow and pore pressure perturbations are possible mechanisms for the initiation and the evolution of the Ag. Ioanis 2001

Seismological investigation of earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrmann, R.B.; Nguyen, B.

1993-08-01

Earthquake activity in the New Madrid Seismic Zone had been monitored by regional seismic networks since 1975. During this time period, over 3,700 earthquakes have been located within the region bounded by latitudes 35 degrees--39 degrees N and longitudes 87 degrees--92 degrees W. Most of these earthquakes occur within a 1.5 degrees x 2 degrees zone centered on the Missouri Bootheel. Source parameters of larger earthquakes in the zone and in eastern North America are determined using surface-wave spectral amplitudes and broadband waveforms for the purpose of determining the focal mechanism, source depth and seismic moment. Waveform modeling of broadband data is shown to be a powerful tool in defining these source parameters when used complementary with regional seismic network data, and in addition, in verifying the correctness of previously published focal mechanism solutions

Ionospheric phenomena before strong earthquakes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Silina

2001-01-01

Full Text Available A statistical analysis of several ionospheric parameters before earthquakes with magnitude M > 5.5 located less than 500 km from an ionospheric vertical sounding station is performed. Ionospheric effects preceding "deep" (depth h > 33 km and "crust" (h 33 km earthquakes were analysed separately. Data of nighttime measurements of the critical frequencies foF2 and foEs, the frequency fbEs and Es-spread at the middle latitude station Dushanbe were used. The frequencies foF2 and fbEs are proportional to the square root of the ionization density at heights of 300 km and 100 km, respectively. It is shown that two days before the earthquakes the values of foF2 averaged over the morning hours (00:00 LT–06:00 LT and of fbEs averaged over the nighttime hours (18:00 LT–06:00 LT decrease; the effect is stronger for the "deep" earthquakes. Analysing the coefficient of semitransparency which characterizes the degree of small-scale turbulence, it was shown that this value increases 1–4 days before "crust" earthquakes, and it does not change before "deep" earthquakes. Studying Es-spread which manifests itself as diffuse Es track on ionograms and characterizes the degree of large-scale turbulence, it was found that the number of Es-spread observations increases 1–3 days before the earthquakes; for "deep" earthquakes the effect is more intensive. Thus it may be concluded that different mechanisms of energy transfer from the region of earthquake preparation to the ionosphere occur for "deep" and "crust" events.

A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr [Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon/Turkey (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı/Turkey (Turkey)

2016-04-18

North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson method the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M{sub S}=7.3 and 1897, M{sub S}=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M{sub S} magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99

A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Türker, Tuğba; Bayrak, Yusuf

2016-01-01

North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson method the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M_S=7.3 and 1897, M_S=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M_S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99 with an earthquake

Evidence for a continental unstable triple junction as an alternate model for Vrancea seismicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besutiu, L.

2002-01-01

The Vrancea active seismic zone located in the bending area of Romanian Carpathians stands for a long time as a challenge to geoscientists all over the world. Deep seismicity in continental collision circumstances is rather rare and always constraints on dynamics of subduction. The pattern of the intermediate-depth seismicity in the Vrancea region suggests a confined prismatic nearly vertical seismic body. The small size and geometry of the seismic zone have made it difficult to interpret the kinematics of subduction and continental collision in the area. During the years, several models, almost all subduction-related, have more or less successfully tried to explain this phenomenon. The paper represents an attempt to explain the Vrancea intermediate depth seismicity starting from a new concept, as introduced by the plate tectonics theory: the triple junction. A continental unstable triple junction is proposed as an alternate model to explain the unusual seismicity in the Vrancea seismic area. Three tectonic plates / microplates seem to join in the region: East European Plate (EEP), Moesian microplate (MoP), and the Intra-Alpine microplate (IaP). Their edges are geophysically documented and their motion is evidenced. The differentiation in their relative velocities generated an unstable transform-transform-compression triple junction that determined the vertical collapse of the lithospheric segment to which the intermediate seismicity within Vrancea zone is associated. Three major plates' wedges bound the seismic body: Tornquist-Teissyere zone, Peceneaga-Camena fault, and Trans-Getica fault. Temperature accommodation phenomena associated to the sinking lithospheric body into the hotter upper mantle environment (such as convective cells, phase-transform processes, and devolatilization) could be responsible for the earthquakes occurrence. The problem of the missing subduction related volcanism within Vrancea triple junction (VTJ) area is definitely solved in the case

The extent of continental crust beneath the Seychelles

Science.gov (United States)

Hammond, J. O. S.; Kendall, J.-M.; Collier, J. S.; Rümpker, G.

2013-11-01

The granitic islands of the Seychelles Plateau have long been recognised to overlie continental crust, isolated from Madagascar and India during the formation of the Indian Ocean. However, to date the extent of continental crust beneath the Seychelles region remains unknown. This is particularly true beneath the Mascarene Basin between the Seychelles Plateau and Madagascar and beneath the Amirante Arc. Constraining the size and shape of the Seychelles continental fragment is needed for accurate plate reconstructions of the breakup of Gondwana and has implications for the processes of continental breakup in general. Here we present new estimates of crustal thickness and VP/VS from H-κ stacking of receiver functions from a year long deployment of seismic stations across the Seychelles covering the topographic plateau, the Amirante Ridge and the northern Mascarene Basin. These results, combined with gravity modelling of historical ship track data, confirm that continental crust is present beneath the Seychelles Plateau. This is ˜30-33 km thick, but with a relatively high velocity lower crustal layer. This layer thins southwards from ˜10 km to ˜1 km over a distance of ˜50 km, which is consistent with the Seychelles being at the edge of the Deccan plume prior to its separation from India. In contrast, the majority of the Seychelles Islands away from the topographic plateau show no direct evidence for continental crust. The exception to this is the island of Desroche on the northern Amirante Ridge, where thicker low density crust, consistent with a block of continental material is present. We suggest that the northern Amirantes are likely continental in nature and that small fragments of continental material are a common feature of plume affected continental breakup.

Quantitative prediction of strong motion for a potential earthquake fault

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shamita Das

2010-02-01

Full Text Available This paper describes a new method for calculating strong motion records for a given seismic region on the basis of the laws of physics using information on the tectonics and physical properties of the earthquake fault. Our method is based on a earthquake model, called a «barrier model», which is characterized by five source parameters: fault length, width, maximum slip, rupture velocity, and barrier interval. The first three parameters may be constrained from plate tectonics, and the fourth parameter is roughly a constant. The most important parameter controlling the earthquake strong motion is the last parameter, «barrier interval». There are three methods to estimate the barrier interval for a given seismic region: 1 surface measurement of slip across fault breaks, 2 model fitting with observed near and far-field seismograms, and 3 scaling law data for small earthquakes in the region. The barrier intervals were estimated for a dozen earthquakes and four seismic regions by the above three methods. Our preliminary results for California suggest that the barrier interval may be determined if the maximum slip is given. The relation between the barrier interval and maximum slip varies from one seismic region to another. For example, the interval appears to be unusually long for Kilauea, Hawaii, which may explain why only scattered evidence of strong ground shaking was observed in the epicentral area of the Island of Hawaii earthquake of November 29, 1975. The stress drop associated with an individual fault segment estimated from the barrier interval and maximum slip lies between 100 and 1000 bars. These values are about one order of magnitude greater than those estimated earlier by the use of crack models without barriers. Thus, the barrier model can resolve, at least partially, the well known discrepancy between the stress-drops measured in the laboratory and those estimated for earthquakes.

Earthquake precursors: spatial-temporal gravity changes before the great earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan area

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Yi-Qing; Liang, Wei-Feng; Zhang, Song

2018-01-01

Using multiple-scale mobile gravity data in the Sichuan-Yunnan area, we systematically analyzed the relationships between spatial-temporal gravity changes and the 2014 Ludian, Yunnan Province Ms6.5 earthquake and the 2014 Kangding Ms6.3, 2013 Lushan Ms7.0, and 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province. Our main results are as follows. (1) Before the occurrence of large earthquakes, gravity anomalies occur in a large area around the epicenters. The directions of gravity change gradient belts usually agree roughly with the directions of the main fault zones of the study area. Such gravity changes might reflect the increase of crustal stress, as well as the significant active tectonic movements and surface deformations along fault zones, during the period of gestation of great earthquakes. (2) Continuous significant changes of the multiple-scale gravity fields, as well as greater gravity changes with larger time scales, can be regarded as medium-range precursors of large earthquakes. The subsequent large earthquakes always occur in the area where the gravity changes greatly. (3) The spatial-temporal gravity changes are very useful in determining the epicenter of coming large earthquakes. The large gravity networks are useful to determine the general areas of coming large earthquakes. However, the local gravity networks with high spatial-temporal resolution are suitable for determining the location of epicenters. Therefore, denser gravity observation networks are necessary for better forecasts of the epicenters of large earthquakes. (4) Using gravity changes from mobile observation data, we made medium-range forecasts of the Kangding, Ludian, Lushan, and Wenchuan earthquakes, with especially successful forecasts of the location of their epicenters. Based on the above discussions, we emphasize that medium-/long-term potential for large earthquakes might exist nowadays in some areas with significant gravity anomalies in the study region. Thus, the monitoring

Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

Science.gov (United States)

Block, Gary; Li, P. Peggy; Song, Yuhe T.

2007-01-01

This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

Ionospheric Anomaly before Kyushu|Japan Earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

YANG Li

2017-05-01

Full Text Available GIM data released by IGS is used in the article and a new method of combining the Sliding Time Window Method and the Ionospheric TEC correlation analysis method of adjacent grid points is proposed to study the relationship between pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies and earthquake. By analyzing the abnormal change of TEC in the 5 grid points around the seismic region, the abnormal change of ionospheric TEC is found before the earthquake and the correlation between the TEC sequences of lattice points is significantly affected by earthquake. Based on the analysis of the spatial distribution of TEC anomaly, anomalies of 6 h, 12 h and 6 h were found near the epicenter three days before the earthquake. Finally, ionospheric tomographic technology is used to do tomographic inversion on electron density. And the distribution of the electron density in the ionospheric anomaly is further analyzed.

Atmospheric water vapor transport: Estimation of continental precipitation recycling and parameterization of a simple climate model. M.S. Thesis

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Brubaker, Kaye L.; Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

1991-01-01

The advective transport of atmospheric water vapor and its role in global hydrology and the water balance of continental regions are discussed and explored. The data set consists of ten years of global wind and humidity observations interpolated onto a regular grid by objective analysis. Atmospheric water vapor fluxes across the boundaries of selected continental regions are displayed graphically. The water vapor flux data are used to investigate the sources of continental precipitation. The total amount of water that precipitates on large continental regions is supplied by two mechanisms: (1) advection from surrounding areas external to the region; and (2) evaporation and transpiration from the land surface recycling of precipitation over the continental area. The degree to which regional precipitation is supplied by recycled moisture is a potentially significant climate feedback mechanism and land surface-atmosphere interaction, which may contribute to the persistence and intensification of droughts. A simplified model of the atmospheric moisture over continents and simultaneous estimates of regional precipitation are employed to estimate, for several large continental regions, the fraction of precipitation that is locally derived. In a separate, but related, study estimates of ocean to land water vapor transport are used to parameterize an existing simple climate model, containing both land and ocean surfaces, that is intended to mimic the dynamics of continental climates.

Parallel Earthquake Simulations on Large-Scale Multicore Supercomputers

KAUST Repository

Wu, Xingfu

2011-01-01

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural hazards on our planet Earth. Hugh earthquakes striking offshore may cause devastating tsunamis, as evidenced by the 11 March 2011 Japan (moment magnitude Mw9.0) and the 26 December 2004 Sumatra (Mw9.1) earthquakes. Earthquake prediction (in terms of the precise time, place, and magnitude of a coming earthquake) is arguably unfeasible in the foreseeable future. To mitigate seismic hazards from future earthquakes in earthquake-prone areas, such as California and Japan, scientists have been using numerical simulations to study earthquake rupture propagation along faults and seismic wave propagation in the surrounding media on ever-advancing modern computers over past several decades. In particular, ground motion simulations for past and future (possible) significant earthquakes have been performed to understand factors that affect ground shaking in populated areas, and to provide ground shaking characteristics and synthetic seismograms for emergency preparation and design of earthquake-resistant structures. These simulation results can guide the development of more rational seismic provisions for leading to safer, more efficient, and economical50pt]Please provide V. Taylor author e-mail ID. structures in earthquake-prone regions.

M≥7 Earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the Sea of Marmara region, Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Murru, Maura; Akinci, Aybige; Falcone, Guiseppe; Pucci, Stefano; Console, Rodolfo; Parsons, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

We forecast time-independent and time-dependent earthquake ruptures in the Marmara region of Turkey for the next 30 years using a new fault-segmentation model. We also augment time-dependent Brownian Passage Time (BPT) probability with static Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) from interacting faults. We calculate Mw > 6.5 probability from 26 individual fault sources in the Marmara region. We also consider a multisegment rupture model that allows higher-magnitude ruptures over some segments of the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NNAF) beneath the Marmara Sea. A total of 10 different Mw=7.0 to Mw=8.0 multisegment ruptures are combined with the other regional faults at rates that balance the overall moment accumulation. We use Gaussian random distributions to treat parameter uncertainties (e.g., aperiodicity, maximum expected magnitude, slip rate, and consequently mean recurrence time) of the statistical distributions associated with each fault source. We then estimate uncertainties of the 30-year probability values for the next characteristic event obtained from three different models (Poisson, BPT, and BPT+ΔCFF) using a Monte Carlo procedure. The Gerede fault segment located at the eastern end of the Marmara region shows the highest 30-yr probability, with a Poisson value of 29%, and a time-dependent interaction probability of 48%. We find an aggregated 30-yr Poisson probability of M >7.3 earthquakes at Istanbul of 35%, which increases to 47% if time dependence and stress transfer are considered. We calculate a 2-fold probability gain (ratio time-dependent to time-independent) on the southern strands of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.

Overestimation of the earthquake hazard along the Himalaya: constraints in bracketing of medieval earthquakes from paleoseismic studies

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Arora, Shreya; Malik, Javed N.

2017-12-01

The Himalaya is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. The occurrence of several large magnitude earthquakes viz. 1905 Kangra earthquake (Mw 7.8), 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.2), 1950 Assam earthquake (Mw 8.4), 2005 Kashmir (Mw 7.6), and 2015 Gorkha (Mw 7.8) are the testimony to ongoing tectonic activity. In the last few decades, tremendous efforts have been made along the Himalayan arc to understand the patterns of earthquake occurrences, size, extent, and return periods. Some of the large magnitude earthquakes produced surface rupture, while some remained blind. Furthermore, due to the incompleteness of the earthquake catalogue, a very few events can be correlated with medieval earthquakes. Based on the existing paleoseismic data certainly, there exists a complexity to precisely determine the extent of surface rupture of these earthquakes and also for those events, which occurred during historic times. In this paper, we have compiled the paleo-seismological data and recalibrated the radiocarbon ages from the trenches excavated by previous workers along the entire Himalaya and compared earthquake scenario with the past. Our studies suggest that there were multiple earthquake events with overlapping surface ruptures in small patches with an average rupture length of 300 km limiting Mw 7.8-8.0 for the Himalayan arc, rather than two or three giant earthquakes rupturing the whole front. It has been identified that the large magnitude Himalayan earthquakes, such as 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, and 1950 Assam, that have occurred within a time frame of 45 years. Now, if these events are dated, there is a high possibility that within the range of ±50 years, they may be considered as the remnant of one giant earthquake rupturing the entire Himalayan arc. Therefore, leading to an overestimation of seismic hazard scenario in Himalaya.

Data base pertinent to earthquake design basis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharma, R.D.

1988-01-01

Mitigation of earthquake risk from impending strong earthquakes is possible provided the hazard can be assessed, and translated into appropriate design inputs. This requires defining the seismic risk problem, isolating the risk factors and quantifying risk in terms of physical parameters, which are suitable for application in design. Like all other geological phenomena, past earthquakes hold the key to the understanding of future ones. Quantificatio n of seismic risk at a site calls for investigating the earthquake aspects of the site region and building a data base. The scope of such investigations is il lustrated in Figure 1 and 2. A more detailed definition of the earthquake problem in engineering design is given elsewhere (Sharma, 1987). The present document discusses the earthquake data base, which is required to support a seismic risk evaluation programme in the context of the existing state of the art. (author). 8 tables, 10 figs., 54 refs

Intraplate Earthquakes and Deformation within the East Antarctic Craton

Science.gov (United States)

Lough, A. C.; Wiens, D.; Nyblade, A.

2017-12-01

The apparent lack of tectonic seismicity within Antarctica has long been discussed. Explanations have ranged from a lack of intraplate stress due to the surrounding spreading ridges and low absolute plate velocity (Sykes, 1978), to the weight of ice sheets increasing the vertical normal stress (Johnston, 1987). The 26 station GAMSEIS/AGAP array deployed in East Antarctica from late 2008 to early 2010 provides the first opportunity to study the intraplate seismicity of the Antarctic interior using regional data. Here we report 27 intraplate tectonic earthquakes that occurred during 2009. Depth determination together with their corresponding uncertainty estimates, show that most events originate in the shallow to middle crust, indicating a tectonic and not a cryoseismic origin. The earthquakes are primarily located beneath linear alignments of basins adjacent to the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains (GSM) that have been denoted as the East Antarctic rift system (Ferraccioli et al, 2011). The geophysical properties of the `rift' system contrast sharply with those of the GSM and Vostok Subglacial Highlands on either side. Crustal thickness, seismic velocity, and gravity anomalies all indicate large lateral variation in lithospheric properties. We propose the events outline an ancient continental rift, a terrain boundary feature, or a combination of the two where rifting exploited pre-existing weakness. It is natural to draw parallels between East Antarctica and the St. Lawrence depression where rifting and a collisional suture focus intraplate earthquakes within a craton (Schulte and Mooney, 2005). We quantify the East Antarctic seismicity by developing a frequency-magnitude relation, constraining the lower magnitudes with the 2009 results and the larger magnitudes with 1982-2012 teleseismic seismicity. East Antarctica and the Canadian Shield show statistically indistinguishable b-values (near 1) and seismicity rates as expressed as the number of events with mb > 4 per

Continental tectonics and continental kinetics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allegre, C.J.; Jaupart, C.; Paris-7 Univ., 75

1985-01-01

We present a model of continental growth which combines the results of geochemical studies and tectonic ideas about the evolution of continents through geological time. The process of continental growth is mainly controlled by surface phenomena. Continental material is extracted from the mantle along subduction zones at the periphery of oceans, and is destroyed in collision zones where it is remobilized and made available for subduction. We derive an equation for S, the portion of the Earth's surface occupied by continents, which reads as follows: dS/dt=a . √(1-S)-b . S. Coefficients a and b depend on the geometry of plates, on their number and on their velocities. We assume that they decrease exponentially with time with the same time-scale α. This model satisfies both geochemical and tectonic constraints, and allows the integration of several current observations in a single framework. (orig.)

Seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment based on the unified scaling law for earthquakes: Himalayas and adjacent regions

Science.gov (United States)

Nekrasova, A. K.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Parvez, I. A.

2015-03-01

For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, log N( M, L) = A + B (5 - M) + C log L, where N( M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth's meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from -1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of -1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the

Interevent times in a new alarm-based earthquake forecasting model

Science.gov (United States)

Talbi, Abdelhak; Nanjo, Kazuyoshi; Zhuang, Jiancang; Satake, Kenji; Hamdache, Mohamed

2013-09-01

This study introduces a new earthquake forecasting model that uses the moment ratio (MR) of the first to second order moments of earthquake interevent times as a precursory alarm index to forecast large earthquake events. This MR model is based on the idea that the MR is associated with anomalous long-term changes in background seismicity prior to large earthquake events. In a given region, the MR statistic is defined as the inverse of the index of dispersion or Fano factor, with MR values (or scores) providing a biased estimate of the relative regional frequency of background events, here termed the background fraction. To test the forecasting performance of this proposed MR model, a composite Japan-wide earthquake catalogue for the years between 679 and 2012 was compiled using the Japan Meteorological Agency catalogue for the period between 1923 and 2012, and the Utsu historical seismicity records between 679 and 1922. MR values were estimated by sampling interevent times from events with magnitude M ≥ 6 using an earthquake random sampling (ERS) algorithm developed during previous research. Three retrospective tests of M ≥ 7 target earthquakes were undertaken to evaluate the long-, intermediate- and short-term performance of MR forecasting, using mainly Molchan diagrams and optimal spatial maps obtained by minimizing forecasting error defined by miss and alarm rate addition. This testing indicates that the MR forecasting technique performs well at long-, intermediate- and short-term. The MR maps produced during long-term testing indicate significant alarm levels before 15 of the 18 shallow earthquakes within the testing region during the past two decades, with an alarm region covering about 20 per cent (alarm rate) of the testing region. The number of shallow events missed by forecasting was reduced by about 60 per cent after using the MR method instead of the relative intensity (RI) forecasting method. At short term, our model succeeded in forecasting the

Ionospheric GPS TEC Anomalies and M >= 5.9 Earthquakes in Indonesia during 1993 - 2002

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarmoko Saroso

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Indonesia is one of the most seismically active regions in the world, containing numerous active volcanoes and subject to frequent earthquakes with epicenters distributed along the same regions as volcanoes. In this paper, a case study is carried out to investigate pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies in total electron content (TEC during the Sulawesi earthquakes of 1993 - 2002, and the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004, the largest earthquake in the world since 1964. It is found that the ionospheric TECs remarkably decrease within 2 - 7 days before the earthquakes, and for the very powerful Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, the anomalies extend up to about 1600 km from the epicenter.

Future Developments for the Earthquake Early Warning System following the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

2011-12-01

The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) caused significant damage over a large area of northeastern Honshu. An earthquake early warning was issued to the public in the Tohoku region about 8 seconds after the first P-arrival, which is 31 seconds after the origin time. There was no 'blind zone', and warnings were received at all locations before S-wave arrivals, since the earthquake was fairly far offshore. Although the early warning message was properly reported in Tohoku region which was the most severely affected area, a message was not sent to the more distant Tokyo region because the intensity was underestimated. . This underestimation was because the magnitude determination in the first few seconds was relatively small (Mj8.1)., and there was no consideration of a finite fault with a long length. Another significant issue is that warnings were sometimes not properly provided for aftershocks. Immediately following the earthquake, the waveforms of some large aftershocks were contaminated by long-period surface waves from the mainshock, which made it difficult to pick P-wave arrivals. Also, correctly distinguishing and locating later aftershocks was sometimes difficult, when multiple events occurred within a short period of time. This masinhock begins with relatively small moment release for the first 10 s . Since the amplitude of the initial waveforms is small, most methods that use amplitudes and periods of the P-wave (e.g. Wu and Kanamori, 2005) cannot correctly determine the size of the4 earthquake in the first several seconds. The current JMA system uses the peak displacement amplitude for the magnitude estimation, and the magnitude saturated at about M8 1 minute after the first P-wave arrival. . Magnitudes of smaller earthquakes can be correctly identified from the first few seconds of P- or S-wave arrivals, but this M9 event cannot be characterized in such a short time. The only way to correctly characterize the size of the Tohoku

Failures and suggestions in Earthquake forecasting and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Sacks, S. I.

2013-12-01

Seismologists have had poor success in earthquake prediction. However, wide ranging observations from earlier great earthquakes show that precursory data can exist. In particular, two aspects seem promising. In agreement with simple physical modeling, b-values decrease in highly loaded fault zones for years before failure. Potentially more usefully, in high stress regions, breakdown of dilatant patches leading to failure can yield expelled water-related observations. The volume increase (dilatancy) caused by high shear stresses decreases the pore pressure. Eventually, water flows back in restoring the pore pressure, promoting failure and expelling the extra water. Of course, in a generally stressed region there may be many small patches that fail, such as observed before the 1975 Haicheng earthquake. Only a few days before the major event will most of the dilatancy breakdown occur in the fault zone itself such as for the Tangshan, 1976 destructive event. Observations of 'water release' effects have been observed before the 1923 great Kanto earthquake, the 1984 Yamasaki event, the 1975 Haicheng and the 1976 Tangshan earthquakes and also the 1995 Kobe earthquake. While there are obvious difficulties in water release observations, not least because there is currently no observational network anywhere, historical data does suggest some promise if we broaden our approach to this difficult subject.

Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

Science.gov (United States)

Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

Seismotectonics of the 2014 Chiang Rai, Thailand, earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Pananont, P.; Herman, M. W.; Pornsopin, P.; Furlong, K. P.; Habangkaem, S.; Waldhauser, F.; Wongwai, W.; Limpisawad, S.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Wechbunthung, B.

2017-08-01

On 5 May 2014, a Mw 6.2 strike-slip earthquake occurred in the Mae Lao region of Chiang Rai province in Thailand. This earthquake took place in a region of known faults and caused substantial damage and injuries, although the region had been previously identified as having a relatively low earthquake hazard. Detailed field reconnaissance and deployment of a dense, temporary, network of broadband seismometers allowed details of the damage and its relationship to seismicity to be analyzed. The aftershock sequence associated with this main shock occurs on two well-defined trends, reflecting the two potential fault planes in earthquake mechanisms for the main shock and the majority of the aftershocks. The damage area was relatively large for an event of this magnitude, but building damage was largely limited to the primary rupture region, while liquefaction and other ground failure are spatially associated with the rupture area and along regional rivers. Stress modeling, combined with the time series and pattern of aftershock activity, leads us to propose that slip near the northern termination of the main shock rupture continued slightly onto a conjugate fault, helping to trigger the distinct pattern of two discrete, conjugate trends of aftershock activity that mirror the kinematics of the main shock fault mechanism.

The use of radon as an earthquake precursor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramola, R.C.; Singh, M.; Sandhu, A.S.; Singh, S.; Virk, H.S.

1990-01-01

Radon monitoring for earthquake prediction is part of an integral approach since the discovery of coherent and time anomalous radon concentrations prior to, during and after the 1966 Tashkent earthquake. In this paper some studies of groundwater and soil gas radon content in relation to earthquake activities are reviewed. Laboratory experiments and the development of groundwater and soil gas radon monitoring systems are described. In addition, radon monitoring studies conducted at the Guru Nanak Dev University Campus since 1986 are presented in detail. During these studies some anomalous changes in radon concentration were recorded before earthquakes occurred in the region. The anomalous radon increases are independent of meteorological conditions and appear to be caused by strain changes, which precede the earthquake. Anomalous changes in radon concentration before an earthquake suggest that radon monitoring can serve as an additional technique in the earthquake prediction programme in India. (author)

Modeling fast and slow earthquakes at various scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Ide, Satoshi

2014-01-01

Earthquake sources represent dynamic rupture within rocky materials at depth and often can be modeled as propagating shear slip controlled by friction laws. These laws provide boundary conditions on fault planes embedded in elastic media. Recent developments in observation networks, laboratory experiments, and methods of data analysis have expanded our knowledge of the physics of earthquakes. Newly discovered slow earthquakes are qualitatively different phenomena from ordinary fast earthquakes and provide independent information on slow deformation at depth. Many numerical simulations have been carried out to model both fast and slow earthquakes, but problems remain, especially with scaling laws. Some mechanisms are required to explain the power-law nature of earthquake rupture and the lack of characteristic length. Conceptual models that include a hierarchical structure over a wide range of scales would be helpful for characterizing diverse behavior in different seismic regions and for improving probabilistic forecasts of earthquakes.

Earthquake scenario and probabilistic ground-shaking hazard maps for the Albuquerque-Belen-Santa Fe, New Mexico, corridor

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, I.; Olig, S.; Dober, M.; Silva, W.; Wright, D.; Thomas, P.; Gregor, N.; Sanford, A.; Lin, K.-W.; Love, D.

2004-01-01

New Mexico's population is concentrated along the corridor that extends from Belen in the south to Española in the north and includes Albuquerque and Santa Fe. The Rio Grande rift, which encompasses the corridor, is a major tectonically, volcanically, and seismically active continental rift in the western U.S. Although only one large earthquake (moment magnitude (M) ≥ 6) has possibly occurred in the New Mexico portion of the rift since 1849, paleoseismic data indicate that prehistoric surface-faulting earthquakes of M 6.5 and greater have occurred on aver- age every 400 yrs on many faults throughout the Rio Grande rift.

Analysis of Earthquake Source Spectra in Salton Trough

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, X.; Shearer, P. M.

2009-12-01

Previous studies of the source spectra of small earthquakes in southern California show that average Brune-type stress drops vary among different regions, with particularly low stress drops observed in the Salton Trough (Shearer et al., 2006). The Salton Trough marks the southern end of the San Andreas Fault and is prone to earthquake swarms, some of which are driven by aseismic creep events (Lohman and McGuire, 2007). In order to learn the stress state and understand the physical mechanisms of swarms and slow slip events, we analyze the source spectra of earthquakes in this region. We obtain Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) waveforms for earthquakes from 1977 to 2009 archived at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) data center, which includes over 17,000 events. After resampling the data to a uniform 100 Hz sample rate, we compute spectra for both signal and noise windows for each seismogram, and select traces with a P-wave signal-to-noise ratio greater than 5 between 5 Hz and 15 Hz. Using selected displacement spectra, we isolate the source spectra from station terms and path effects using an empirical Green’s function approach. From the corrected source spectra, we compute corner frequencies and estimate moments and stress drops. Finally we analyze spatial and temporal variations in stress drop in the Salton Trough and compare them with studies of swarms and creep events to assess the evolution of faulting and stress in the region. References: Lohman, R. B., and J. J. McGuire (2007), Earthquake swarms driven by aseismic creep in the Salton Trough, California, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B04405, doi:10.1029/2006JB004596 Shearer, P. M., G. A. Prieto, and E. Hauksson (2006), Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06303, doi:10.1029/2005JB003979.

Earthquake precursory events around epicenters and local active faults; the cases of two inland earthquakes in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Valizadeh Alvan, H.; Mansor, S.; Haydari Azad, F.

2012-12-01

The possibility of earthquake prediction in the frame of several days to few minutes before its occurrence has stirred interest among researchers, recently. Scientists believe that the new theories and explanations of the mechanism of this natural phenomenon are trustable and can be the basis of future prediction efforts. During the last thirty years experimental researches resulted in some pre-earthquake events which are now recognized as confirmed warning signs (precursors) of past known earthquakes. With the advances in in-situ measurement devices and data analysis capabilities and the emergence of satellite-based data collectors, monitoring the earth's surface is now a regular work. Data providers are supplying researchers from all over the world with high quality and validated imagery and non-imagery data. Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) or the amount of energy exchange in the form of water vapor between the earth's surface and atmosphere has been frequently reported as an earthquake precursor during the past years. The accumulated stress in the earth's crust during the preparation phase of earthquakes is said to be the main cause of temperature anomalies weeks to days before the main event and subsequent shakes. Chemical and physical interactions in the presence of underground water lead to higher water evaporation prior to inland earthquakes. On the other hand, the leak of Radon gas occurred as rocks break during earthquake preparation causes the formation of airborne ions and higher Air Temperature (AT) prior to main event. Although co-analysis of direct and indirect observation for precursory events is considered as a promising method for future successful earthquake prediction, without proper and thorough knowledge about the geological setting, atmospheric factors and geodynamics of the earthquake-prone regions we will not be able to identify anomalies due to seismic activity in the earth's crust. Active faulting is a key factor in identification of the

3-D P- and S-wave velocity structure and low-frequency earthquake locations in the Parkfield, California region

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Xiangfang; Thurber, Clifford H.; Shelly, David R.; Harrington, Rebecca M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Bennington, Ninfa L.; Peterson, Dana; Guo, Bin; McClement, Kara

2016-01-01

To refine the 3-D seismic velocity model in the greater Parkfield, California region, a new data set including regular earthquakes, shots, quarry blasts and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) was assembled. Hundreds of traces of each LFE family at two temporary arrays were stacked with time–frequency domain phase weighted stacking method to improve signal-to-noise ratio. We extend our model resolution to lower crustal depth with LFE data. Our result images not only previously identified features but also low velocity zones (LVZs) in the area around the LFEs and the lower crust beneath the southern Rinconada Fault. The former LVZ is consistent with high fluid pressure that can account for several aspects of LFE behaviour. The latter LVZ is consistent with a high conductivity zone in magnetotelluric studies. A new Vs model was developed with S picks that were obtained with a new autopicker. At shallow depth, the low Vs areas underlie the strongest shaking areas in the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. We relocate LFE families and analyse the location uncertainties with the NonLinLoc and tomoDD codes. The two methods yield similar results.

Homogenization and implementation of a 3D regional velocity model in Mexico for its application in moment tensor inversion of intermediate-magnitude earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez Cardozo, Félix; Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala; Caló, Marco

2017-04-01

Moment tensor inversions for intermediate and small earthquakes (M. < 4.5) are challenging as they principally excite relatively short period seismic waves that interact strongly with local heterogeneities. Incorporating detailed regional 3D velocity models permits obtaining realistic synthetic seismograms and recover the seismic source parameters these smaller events. Two 3D regional velocity models have recently been developed for Mexico, using surface waves and seismic noise tomography (Spica et al., 2016; Gaite et al., 2015), which could be used to model the waveforms of intermediate magnitud earthquakes in this region. Such models are parameterized as layered velocity profiles and for some of the profiles, the velocity difference between two layers are considerable. The "jump" in velocities between two layers is inconvenient for some methods and algorithms that calculate synthetic waveforms, in particular for the method that we are using, the spectral element method (SPECFEM3D GLOBE, Komatitsch y Tromp, 2000), when the mesh does not follow the layer boundaries. In order to make the velocity models more easily implementec in SPECFEM3D GLOBE it is neccesary to apply a homogenization algorithm (Capdeville et al., 2015) such that the (now anisotropic) layer velocities are smoothly varying with depth. In this work, we apply a homogenization algorithm to the regional velocity models in México for implementing them in SPECFEM3D GLOBE, calculate synthetic waveforms for intermediate-magnitude earthquakes in México and invert them for the seismic moment tensor.

An updated stress map of the continental United States reveals heterogeneous intraplate stress

Science.gov (United States)

Levandowski, Will; Herrmann, Robert B.; Briggs, Rich; Boyd, Oliver; Gold, Ryan

2018-06-01

Knowledge of the state of stress in Earth's crust is key to understanding the forces and processes responsible for earthquakes. Historically, low rates of natural seismicity in the central and eastern United States have complicated efforts to understand intraplate stress, but recent improvements in seismic networks and the spread of human-induced seismicity have greatly improved data coverage. Here, we compile a nationwide stress map based on formal inversions of focal mechanisms that challenges the idea that deformation in continental interiors is driven primarily by broad, uniform stress fields derived from distant plate boundaries. Despite plate-boundary compression, extension dominates roughly half of the continent, and second-order forces related to lithospheric structure appear to control extension directions. We also show that the states of stress in several active eastern United States seismic zones differ significantly from those of surrounding areas and that these anomalies cannot be explained by transient processes, suggesting that earthquakes are focused by persistent, locally derived sources of stress. Such spatially variable intraplate stress appears to justify the current, spatially variable estimates of seismic hazard. Future work to quantify sources of stress, stressing-rate magnitudes and their relationship with strain and earthquake rates could allow prospective mapping of intraplate hazard.

Hazard-consistent response spectra in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain): comparison to earthquake-resistant provisions

OpenAIRE

Gaspar Escribano, Jorge M.; Benito Oterino, Belen; Garcia Mayordomo, Julian

2008-01-01

Hazard-consistent ground-motion characterisations of three representative sites located in the Region of Murcia (southeast Spain) are presented. This is the area where the last three damaging events in Spain occurred and there is a significant amount of data for comparing them with seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-resistant provisions. Results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are used to derive uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the 475-year return period, on rock and soil cond...

Assessment of submarine landslides hazard through geotechnical and rheological analysis of sediments on the French Atlantic continental slope

Science.gov (United States)

Toucanne, S.; Howlett, S.; Garziglia, S.; Silva Jacinto, R.; Courgeon, S.; Sabine, M.; Riboulot, V.; Marsset, B.

2016-12-01

In the aftermath of the devastating tsunami on the Japanese coast in 2011, a French multi-partnership project called TANDEM has been launched to assess the impact of tsunamis generated or propagated in the vicinity of French Channel and Atlantic coastlines. Tsunami are usually generated by earthquakes, but can also be triggered by submarine landslides. This study focuses on submarine landslides along the French Atlantic continental slope using data that were mainly collected in August 2015 during the GITAN cruise (R/V Pourquoi Pas?). Following geomorphological, geophysical and sedimentological analysis of the Bay of Biscay, efforts were oriented towards the determination of the sediment properties controlling landslide dynamics from in situ and laboratory measurements. Preliminary results show over 700 landslide scars on the French Atlantic continental slope, with most of them occurring between 400 and 1000m water depth and in canyon environments. The Plio-Quaternary sediments draping the majority of the Bay of Biscay are generally normally consolidated and composed of high plasticity clays. They show similar geomechanical properties throughout the area studied, with linear evolutions with depth and good reproducibility for rheological parameters such as Storage and Loss modulus. These similarities allow to extend geotechnical and rheological models to a regional scale in the Bay of Biscay. Our multi-disciplinary approach will provide the tools to assess continental slope failures and submarine landslides generation. Finally, we will aim to qualify and quantify the volumes and flow properties of sediment transported obtained through slope-stability modeling on SAMU-3D and rheology modelling on Nixes-SPH. These results will provide the TANDEM actors with the information necessary to simulate tsunami wave generation.

Composite Earthquake Catalog of the Yellow Sea for Seismic Hazard Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, S. Y.; Kim, K. H.; LI, Z.; Hao, T.

2017-12-01

The Yellow Sea (a.k.a West Sea in Korea) is an epicontinental and semi-closed sea located between Korea and China. Recent earthquakes in the Yellow Sea including, but not limited to, the Seogyuckryulbi-do (1 April 2014, magnitude 5.1), Heuksan-do (21 April 2013, magnitude 4.9), Baekryung-do (18 May 2013, magnitude 4.9) earthquakes, and the earthquake swarm in the Boryung offshore region in 2013, remind us of the seismic hazards affecting east Asia. This series of earthquakes in the Yellow Sea raised numerous questions. Unfortunately, both governments have trouble in monitoring seismicity in the Yellow Sea because earthquakes occur beyond their seismic networks. For example, the epicenters of the magnitude 5.1 earthquake in the Seogyuckryulbi-do region in 2014 reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration and China Earthquake Administration differed by approximately 20 km. This illustrates the difficulty with seismic monitoring and locating earthquakes in the region, despite the huge effort made by both governments. Joint effort is required not only to overcome the limits posed by political boundaries and geographical location but also to study seismicity and the underground structures responsible. Although the well-established and developing seismic networks in Korea and China have provided unprecedented amount and quality of seismic data, high quality catalog is limited to the recent 10s of years, which is far from major earthquake cycle. It is also noticed the earthquake catalog from either country is biased to its own and cannot provide complete picture of seismicity in the Yellow Sea. In order to understand seismic hazard and tectonics in the Yellow Sea, a composite earthquake catalog has been developed. We gathered earthquake information during last 5,000 years from various sources. There are good reasons to believe that some listings account for same earthquake, but in different source parameters. We established criteria in order to provide consistent

Collapse risk of buildings in the Pacific Northwest region due to subduction earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Raghunandan, Meera; Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas

2015-01-01

Subduction earthquakes similar to the 2011 Japan and 2010 Chile events will occur in the future in the Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest. In this paper, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out on 24 buildings designed according to outdated and modern building codes for the cities of Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon. The results indicate that the median collapse capacity of the ductile (post-1970) buildings is approximately 40% less when subjected to ground motions from subduction, as compared to crustal earthquakes. Buildings are more susceptible to earthquake-induced collapse when shaken by subduction records (as compared to crustal records of the same intensity) because the subduction motions tend to be longer in duration due to their larger magnitude and the greater source-to-site distance. As a result, subduction earthquakes are shown to contribute to the majority of the collapse risk of the buildings analyzed.

Duration of Parana magmatism and implications for the evolution and source regions of continental flood basalts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mantovani, M.S.M.; Stewart, K.; Turner, S.; Hawkesworth, C.J.

1995-01-01

Duration of Continental Floods Basalts magmatism has generally been considered to be extremely short. Ar-Ar data for different magma type, over a broad region within Parana, demonstrate a duration of 10 Ma, an order of magnitude greater than the usually accepted duration of magmatism. The dating method included rigorous geochemical selection tests, to discard altered samples, combined with the analysis of laser spot technique using the isochron approach. This methodology allows discrimination between rocks which yield precise ages and those which are too altered or heterogeneous. The agreement between the determined age and the relative stratigraphic position of samples supports the above statement. 4 figs

Duration of Parana magmatism and implications for the evolution and source regions of continental flood basalts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mantovani, M.S.M. [Sao Paulo Univ., SP (Brazil). Inst. Astronomico e Geofisico; Stewart, K.; Turner, S.; Hawkesworth, C.J. [Open Univ., Milton Keynes (United Kingdom). Dept. of Earth Sciences

1995-12-31

Duration of Continental Floods Basalts magmatism has generally been considered to be extremely short. Ar-Ar data for different magma type, over a broad region within Parana, demonstrate a duration of 10 Ma, an order of magnitude greater than the usually accepted duration of magmatism. The dating method included rigorous geochemical selection tests, to discard altered samples, combined with the analysis of laser spot technique using the isochron approach. This methodology allows discrimination between rocks which yield precise ages and those which are too altered or heterogeneous. The agreement between the determined age and the relative stratigraphic position of samples supports the above statement. 4 figs.

Long-term versus short-term deformation of the meizoseismal area of the 2008 Achaia-Elia (MW 6.4) earthquake in NW Peloponnese, Greece: Evidence from historical triangulation and morphotectonic data

Science.gov (United States)

Stiros, Stathis; Moschas, Fanis; Feng, Lujia; Newman, Andrew

2013-04-01

The deformation of the meizoseismal area of the 2008 Achaia-Elia (MW 6.4) earthquake in NW Peloponnese, of the first significant strike slip earthquake in continental Greece, was examined in two time scales; of 102 years, based on the analysis of high-accuracy historical triangulation data describing shear, and of 105-106 years, based on the analysis of the hydrographic network of the area for signs of streams offset by faulting. Our study revealed pre-seismic accumulation of shear strain of the order of 0.2 μrad/year in the study area, consistent with recent GPS evidence, but no signs of significant strike slip-induced offsets in the hydrographic network. These results confirm the hypothesis that the 2008 fault, which did not reached the surface and was not associated with significant seismic ground deformation, probably because of a surface flysch layer filtering high-strain events, was associated with an immature or a dormant, recently activated fault. This fault, about 150 km long and discordant to the morphotectonic trends of the area, seems first, to contain segments which have progressively reactivated in a specific direction in the last 20 years, reminiscent of the North Anatolian Fault, and second, to limit an 150 km wide (recent?) shear zone in the internal part of the arc, in a region mostly dominated by thrust faulting and strong destructive earthquakes. Deformation of the first main strike slip fault in continental Greece analyzed. Triangulation data show preseismic shear, hydrographic net no previous faulting. Surface shear deformation only in low strain rates. Immature or reactivated dormant strike slip fault, with gradual oriented rupturing. Interplay between shear and thrusting along the arc.

Sensitivity to Regional Earthquake Triggering and Magnitude-Frequency Characteristics of Microseismicity Detected via Matched-Filter Analysis, Central Southern Alps, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Boese, C. M.; Townend, J.; Chamberlain, C. J.; Warren-Smith, E.

2016-12-01

Microseismicity recorded since 2008 by the Southern Alps Microseismicity Borehole Array (SAMBA) and other predominantly short-period seismic networks deployed in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand, reveals distinctive patterns of triggering in response to regional seismicity (magnitudes larger than 5, epicentral distances of 100-500 km). Using matched-filter detection methods implemented in the EQcorrscan package (Chamberlain et al., in prep.), we analyze microseismicity occurring in several geographically distinct swarms in order to examine the responses of specific microearthquake sources to earthquakes of different sizes occurring at different distances and azimuths. The swarms exhibit complex responses to regional seismicity which reveal that microearthquake triggering in these cases involves a combination of extrinsic factors (related to the dynamic stresses produced by the regional earthquake) and intrinsic factors (controlled by the local state of stress and possibly by hydrogeological processes). We find also that the microearthquakes detected by individual templates have Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency characteristics. Since the detected events, by design, have very similar hypocentres and focal mechanisms, the observed scaling pertains to a restricted set of fault planes.

Marmara Island earthquakes, of 1265 and 1935; Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Altınok

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The long-term seismicity of the Marmara Sea region in northwestern Turkey is relatively well-recorded. Some large and some of the smaller events are clearly associated with fault zones known to be seismically active, which have distinct morphological expressions and have generated damaging earthquakes before and later. Some less common and moderate size earthquakes have occurred in the vicinity of the Marmara Islands in the west Marmara Sea. This paper presents an extended summary of the most important earthquakes that have occurred in 1265 and 1935 and have since been known as the Marmara Island earthquakes. The informative data and the approaches used have therefore the potential of documenting earthquake ruptures of fault segments and may extend the records kept on earthquakes far before known history, rock falls and abnormal sea waves observed during these events, thus improving hazard evaluations and the fundamental understanding of the process of an earthquake.

The Road to Total Earthquake Safety

Science.gov (United States)

Frohlich, Cliff

Cinna Lomnitz is possibly the most distinguished earthquake seismologist in all of Central and South America. Among many other credentials, Lomnitz has personally experienced the shaking and devastation that accompanied no fewer than five major earthquakes—Chile, 1939; Kern County, California, 1952; Chile, 1960; Caracas,Venezuela, 1967; and Mexico City, 1985. Thus he clearly has much to teach someone like myself, who has never even actually felt a real earthquake.What is this slim book? The Road to Total Earthquake Safety summarizes Lomnitz's May 1999 presentation at the Seventh Mallet-Milne Lecture, sponsored by the Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics. His arguments are motivated by the damage that occurred in three earthquakes—Mexico City, 1985; Loma Prieta, California, 1989; and Kobe, Japan, 1995. All three quakes occurred in regions where earthquakes are common. Yet in all three some of the worst damage occurred in structures located a significant distance from the epicenter and engineered specifically to resist earthquakes. Some of the damage also indicated that the structures failed because they had experienced considerable rotational or twisting motion. Clearly, Lomnitz argues, there must be fundamental flaws in the usually accepted models explaining how earthquakes generate strong motions, and how we should design resistant structures.

Investigation of Back-Projection Uncertainties with M6 Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, W.; Shearer, P. M.

2017-12-01

We investigate possible biasing effects of inaccurate timing corrections on teleseismic P-wave back-projection imaging of large earthquake ruptures. These errors occur because empirically-estimated time shifts based on aligning P-wave first arrivals are exact only at the hypocenter and provide approximate corrections for other parts of the rupture. Using the Japan subduction zone as a test region, we analyze 46 M6-7 earthquakes over a ten-year period, including many aftershocks of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake, performing waveform cross-correlation of their initial P-wave arrivals to obtain hypocenter timing corrections to global seismic stations. We then compare back-projection images for each earthquake using its own timing corrections with those obtained using the time corrections for other earthquakes. This provides a measure of how well sub-events can be resolved with back-projection of a large rupture as a function of distance from the hypocenter. Our results show that back-projection is generally very robust and that sub-event location errors average about 20 km across the entire study region ( 700 km). The back-projection coherence loss and location errors do not noticeably converge to zero even when the event pairs are very close (<20 km). This indicates that most of the timing differences are due to 3D structure close to each of the hypocenter regions, which limits the effectiveness of attempts to refine back-projection images using aftershock calibration, at least in this region.

Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, D. D.

2008-12-01

Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require

Extending the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Instrumental Catalogue

Science.gov (United States)

Di Giacomo, Domenico; Engdhal, Bob; Storchak, Dmitry; Villaseñor, Antonio; Harris, James

2015-04-01

After a 27-month project funded by the GEM Foundation (www.globalquakemodel.org), in January 2013 we released the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900 2009) (www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php) as a special product to use for seismic hazard studies. The new catalogue was necessary as improved seismic hazard studies necessitate that earthquake catalogues are homogeneous (to the largest extent possible) over time in their fundamental parameters, such as location and magnitude. Due to time and resource limitation, the ISC-GEM catalogue (1900-2009) included earthquakes selected according to the following time-variable cut-off magnitudes: Ms=7.5 for earthquakes occurring before 1918; Ms=6.25 between 1918 and 1963; and Ms=5.5 from 1964 onwards. Because of the importance of having a reliable seismic input for seismic hazard studies, funding from GEM and two commercial companies in the US and UK allowed us to start working on the extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue both for earthquakes that occurred beyond 2009 and for earthquakes listed in the International Seismological Summary (ISS) which fell below the cut-off magnitude of 6.25. This extension is part of a four-year program that aims at including in the ISC-GEM catalogue large global earthquakes that occurred before the beginning of the ISC Bulletin in 1964. In this contribution we present the updated ISC GEM catalogue, which will include over 1000 more earthquakes that occurred in 2010 2011 and several hundreds more between 1950 and 1959. The catalogue extension between 1935 and 1949 is currently underway. The extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue will also be helpful for regional cross border seismic hazard studies as the ISC-GEM catalogue should be used as basis for cross-checking the consistency in location and magnitude of those earthquakes listed both in the ISC GEM global catalogue and regional catalogues.

Meeting the Challenge of Earthquake Risk Globalisation: Towards the Global Earthquake Model GEM (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Zschau, J.

2009-04-01

Earthquake risk, like natural risks in general, has become a highly dynamic and globally interdependent phenomenon. Due to the "urban explosion" in the Third World, an increasingly complex cross linking of critical infrastructure and lifelines in the industrial nations and a growing globalisation of the world's economies, we are presently facing a dramatic increase of our society's vulnerability to earthquakes in practically all seismic regions on our globe. Such fast and global changes cannot be captured with conventional earthquake risk models anymore. The sciences in this field are, therefore, asked to come up with new solutions that are no longer exclusively aiming at the best possible quantification of the present risks but also keep an eye on their changes with time and allow to project these into the future. This does not apply to the vulnerablity component of earthquake risk alone, but also to its hazard component which has been realized to be time-dependent, too. The challenges of earthquake risk dynamics and -globalisation have recently been accepted by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD - GSF) who initiated the "Global Earthquake Model (GEM)", a public-private partnership for establishing an independent standard to calculate, monitor and communicate earthquake risk globally, raise awareness and promote mitigation.

Global multi-scale segmentation of continental and coastal waters from the watersheds to the continental margins

KAUST Repository

Laruelle, G. G.; Dü rr, H. H.; Lauerwald, R.; Hartmann, J.; Slomp, C. P.; Regnier, P. A. G.

2012-01-01

files. Our analysis provides detailed insights into the distributions of coastal and continental shelf areas and how they connect with incoming riverine fluxes. The segmentation is also used to re-evaluate the global estuarine CO2 flux at the air–water interface combining global and regional average emission rates derived from local studies.

Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake Preparedness Project - A Progress Report

Science.gov (United States)

Hayashi, H.

2010-12-01

Munich Re once ranked that Tokyo metropolitan region, the capital of Japan, is the most vulnerable area for earthquake disasters, followed by San Francisco Bay Area, US and Osaka, Japan. Seismologists also predict that Tokyo metropolitan region may have at least one near-field earthquake with a probability of 70% for the next 30 years. Given this prediction, Japanese Government took it seriously to conduct damage estimations and revealed that, as the worst case scenario, if a7.3 magnitude earthquake under heavy winds as shown in the fig. 1, it would kill a total of 11,000 people and a total of direct and indirect losses would amount to 112,000,000,000,000 yen(1,300,000,000,000, 1=85yen) . In addition to mortality and financial losses, a total of 25 million people would be severely impacted by this earthquake in four prefectures. If this earthquake occurs, 300,000 elevators will be stopped suddenly, and 12,500 persons would be confined in them for a long time. Seven million people will come to use over 20,000 public shelters spread over the impacted area. Over one millions temporary housing units should be built to accommodate 4.6 million people who lost their dwellings. 2.5 million people will relocate to outside of the damaged area. In short, an unprecedented scale of earthquake disaster is expected and we must prepare for it. Even though disaster mitigation is undoubtedly the best solution, it is more realistic that the expected earthquake would hit before we complete this business. In other words, we must take into account another solution to make the people and the assets in this region more resilient for the Tokyo metropolitan earthquake. This is the question we have been tackling with for the last four years. To increase societal resilience for Tokyo metropolitan earthquake, we adopted a holistic approach to integrate both emergency response and long-term recovery. There are three goals for long-term recovery, which consists of Physical recovery, Economic

Rapid earthquake characterization using MEMS accelerometers and volunteer hosts following the M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, J. F.; Cochran, E.S.; Chung, A.; Kaiser, A.; Christensen, C. M.; Allen, R.; Baker, J.W.; Fry, B.; Heaton, T.; Kilb, Debi; Kohler, M.D.; Taufer, M.

2014-01-01

We test the feasibility of rapidly detecting and characterizing earthquakes with the Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) that connects low‐cost microelectromechanical systems accelerometers to a network of volunteer‐owned, Internet‐connected computers. Following the 3 September 2010 M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake we installed over 180 QCN sensors in the Christchurch region to record the aftershock sequence. The sensors are monitored continuously by the host computer and send trigger reports to the central server. The central server correlates incoming triggers to detect when an earthquake has occurred. The location and magnitude are then rapidly estimated from a minimal set of received ground‐motion parameters. Full seismic time series are typically not retrieved for tens of minutes or even hours after an event. We benchmark the QCN real‐time detection performance against the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog. Under normal network operations, QCN detects and characterizes earthquakes within 9.1 s of the earthquake rupture and determines the magnitude within 1 magnitude unit of that reported in the GNS catalog for 90% of the detections.

Atlantic continental margin of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Grow, John A.; Sheridan, Robert E.; Palmer, A.R.

1982-01-01

The objective of this Decade of North American Geology (D-NAG) volume will be to focus on the Mesozoic and Cenozoic evolution of the U.S. Atlantic continental margin, including the onshore coastal plain, related onshore Triassic-Jurassic rift grabens, and the offshore basins and platforms. Following multiple compressional tectonic episodes between Africa and North America during the Paleozoic Era that formed the Appalachian Mountains, the Mesozoic and Cenozoic Eras were dominated by tensional tectonic processes that separated Africa and North America. Extensional rifting during Triassic and Early Jurassic times resulted in numerous tensional grabens both onshore and offshore, which filled with nonmarine continental red beds, lacustrine deposits, and volcanic flows and debris. The final stage of this breakup between Africa and North America occurred beneath the present outer continental shelf and continental slope during Early or Middle Jurassic time when sea-floor spreading began to form new oceanic crust and lithosophere between the two continents as they drifted apart. Postrift subsidence of the marginal basins continued in response to cooling of the lithosphere and sedimentary loading.Geophysical surveys and oil-exploration drilling along the U.S. Atlantic continental margin during the past 5 years are beginning to answer many questions concerning its deep structure and stratigraphy and how it evolved during the rifting and early sea-floor-spreading stages of the separation of this region from Africa. Earlier geophysical studies of the U.S. continental margin used marine refraction and submarine gravity measurements. Single-channel seismic-reflection, marine magnetic, aeromagnetic, and continuous gravity measurements became available during the 1960s.

Critical behavior in earthquake energy dissipation

Science.gov (United States)

Wanliss, James; Muñoz, Víctor; Pastén, Denisse; Toledo, Benjamín; Valdivia, Juan Alejandro

2017-09-01

We explore bursty multiscale energy dissipation from earthquakes flanked by latitudes 29° S and 35.5° S, and longitudes 69.501° W and 73.944° W (in the Chilean central zone). Our work compares the predictions of a theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions with nonstandard statistical signatures of earthquake complex scaling behaviors. For temporal scales less than 84 hours, time development of earthquake radiated energy activity follows an algebraic arrangement consistent with estimates from the theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions. There are no characteristic scales for probability distributions of sizes and lifetimes of the activity bursts in the scaling region. The power-law exponents describing the probability distributions suggest that the main energy dissipation takes place due to largest bursts of activity, such as major earthquakes, as opposed to smaller activations which contribute less significantly though they have greater relative occurrence. The results obtained provide statistical evidence that earthquake energy dissipation mechanisms are essentially "scale-free", displaying statistical and dynamical self-similarity. Our results provide some evidence that earthquake radiated energy and directed percolation belong to a similar universality class.

Determining on-fault earthquake magnitude distributions from integer programming

Science.gov (United States)

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

2018-01-01

Earthquake magnitude distributions among faults within a fault system are determined from regional seismicity and fault slip rates using binary integer programming. A synthetic earthquake catalog (i.e., list of randomly sampled magnitudes) that spans millennia is first formed, assuming that regional seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter relation. Each earthquake in the synthetic catalog can occur on any fault and at any location. The objective is to minimize misfits in the target slip rate for each fault, where slip for each earthquake is scaled from its magnitude. The decision vector consists of binary variables indicating which locations are optimal among all possibilities. Uncertainty estimates in fault slip rates provide explicit upper and lower bounding constraints to the problem. An implicit constraint is that an earthquake can only be located on a fault if it is long enough to contain that earthquake. A general mixed-integer programming solver, consisting of a number of different algorithms, is used to determine the optimal decision vector. A case study is presented for the State of California, where a 4 kyr synthetic earthquake catalog is created and faults with slip ≥3 mm/yr are considered, resulting in >106  variables. The optimal magnitude distributions for each of the faults in the system span a rich diversity of shapes, ranging from characteristic to power-law distributions. 

The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the Rise and Fall of Earthquake Prediction in China

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Chen, Q.; Wang, K.

2009-12-01

Regardless of the future potential of earthquake prediction, it is presently impractical to rely on it to mitigate earthquake disasters. The practical approach is to strengthen the resilience of our built environment to earthquakes based on hazard assessment. But this was not common understanding in China when the M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake struck the Sichuan Province on 12 May 2008, claiming over 80,000 lives. In China, earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. A sudden boom of the earthquake prediction program in 1966-1976 coincided with a succession of nine M > 7 damaging earthquakes in the densely populated region of the country and the political chaos of the Cultural Revolution. It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, which was due mainly to an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence and the extraordinary readiness of some local officials to issue imminent warning and evacuation order. The Haicheng prediction was a success in practice and yielded useful lessons, but the experience cannot be applied to most other earthquakes and cultural environments. Since the disastrous Tangshan earthquake in 1976 that killed over 240,000 people, there have been two opposite trends in China: decreasing confidence in prediction and increasing emphasis on regulating construction design for earthquake resilience. In 1976, most of the seismic intensity XI areas of Tangshan were literally razed to the ground, but in 2008, many buildings in the intensity XI areas of Wenchuan did not collapse. Prediction did not save life in either of these events; the difference was made by construction standards. For regular buildings, there was no seismic design in Tangshan to resist any earthquake shaking in 1976, but limited seismic design was required for the Wenchuan area in 2008. Although the construction standards were later recognized to be too low, those buildings that met the standards suffered much less

The Need for More Earthquake Science in Southeast Asia

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Sieh, K.

2015-12-01

Many regions within SE Asia have as great a density of active seismic structures as does the western US - Sumatra, Myanmar, Bangladesh, New Guinea and the Philippines come first to mind. Much of Earth's release of seismic energy in the current millennium has, in fact, come from these regions, with great losses of life and livelihoods. Unfortunately, the scientific progress upon which seismic-risk reduction in SE Asia ultimately depends has been and continues to be slow. Last year at AGU, for example, I counted 57 talks about the M6 Napa earthquake. In contrast, I can't recall hearing any talk on a SE Asian M6 earthquake at any venue in the past many years. In fact, even M7+ earthquakes often go unstudied. Not uncommonly, the region's earthquake scientists face high financial and political impediments to conducting earthquake research. Their slow speed in the development of scientific knowledge doesn't bode well for speedy progress in the science of seismic hazards, the sine qua non for substantially reducing seismic risk. There are two basic necessities for the region to evolve significantly from the current state of affairs. Both involve the development of regional infrastructure: 1) Data: Robust and accessible geophysical monitoring systems would need to be installed, maintained and utilized by the region's earth scientists and their results shared internationally. Concomitantly, geological mapping (sensu lato) would need to be undertaken. 2) People: The training, employment, and enduring support of a new, young, international corps of earth scientists would need to accelerate markedly. The United States could play an important role in achieving the goal of significant seismic risk reduction in the most seismically active countries of SE Asia by taking the lead in establishing a coalition to robustly fund a multi-decadal program that supports scientists and their research institutions to work alongside local expertise.

Geologic Inheritance and Earthquake Rupture Processes: The 1905 M ≥ 8 Tsetserleg-Bulnay Strike-Slip Earthquake Sequence, Mongolia

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Choi, Jin-Hyuck; Klinger, Yann; Ferry, Matthieu; Ritz, Jean-François; Kurtz, Robin; Rizza, Magali; Bollinger, Laurent; Davaasambuu, Battogtokh; Tsend-Ayush, Nyambayar; Demberel, Sodnomsambuu

2018-02-01

In 1905, 14 days apart, two M 8 continental strike-slip earthquakes, the Tsetserleg and Bulnay earthquakes, occurred on the Bulnay fault system, in Mongolia. Together, they ruptured four individual faults, with a total length of 676 km. Using submetric optical satellite images "Pleiades" with ground resolution of 0.5 m, complemented by field observation, we mapped in detail the entire surface rupture associated with this earthquake sequence. Surface rupture along the main Bulnay fault is 388 km in length, striking nearly E-W. The rupture is formed by a series of fault segments that are 29 km long on average, separated by geometric discontinuities. Although there is a difference of about 2 m in the average slip between the western and eastern parts of the Bulnay rupture, along-fault slip variations are overall limited, resulting in a smooth slip distribution, except for local slip deficit at segment boundaries. We show that damage, including short branches and secondary faulting, associated with the rupture propagation, occurred significantly more often along the western part of the Bulnay rupture, while the eastern part of the rupture appears more localized and thus possibly structurally simpler. Eventually, the difference of slip between the western and eastern parts of the rupture is attributed to this difference of rupture localization, associated at first order with a lateral change in the local geology. Damage associated to rupture branching appears to be located asymmetrically along the extensional side of the strike-slip rupture and shows a strong dependence on structural geologic inheritance.

Investigation of the ULF electromagnetic phenomena related to earthquakes. Contemporary achievements and the perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kopytenko, Y.; Ismagilov, V. [SPbF Izmiran, St. Petersbourg (Russian Federation); Hayakawa, M [The University of Electro-Communications, Chofu, Tokyo (Japan); Smirnova, N.; Troyan, V. [St. Petersbourg Univ., St Petersbourg (Russian Federation). Inst. of Physics; Peterson, T. [TFPLAB, Cleveland, OH (United States)

2001-04-01

The results of ULF electromagnetic signal observations in seismoactive regions prior to earthquakes are presented and discussed. The new differential measurement technique developed in SPbF IZMIRAN for location of the ULF emission sources of space and lithosphere origin is described. The MVC-2DS geohphysical instrumentation is introduced as a promising tool for registration of ULF signals related to earthquakes (both seismic and electromagnetic ones). Methods are proposed for ULF data processing to investigate the preparation processes in the earthquake source regions and to distinguish seismogenic signals. on the background of space pulsations. Some examples of application of those methods for study of the earthquake precursory signatures are presented. Perspectives of seismo-electromagnetic tomography experiments in seismoactive regions, using MVC-2DS technique, are discussed in relation to the development of earthquake prediction methods.

Searching for the seafloor signature of the 21 May 2003 Boumerdès earthquake offshore central Algeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Cattaneo

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Shaking by moderate to large earthquakes in the Mediterranean Sea has proved in the past to potentially trigger catastrophic sediment collapse and flow. On 21 May 2003, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake located near Boumerdès (central Algerian coast triggered large turbidity currents responsible for 29 submarine cable breaks at the foot of the continental slope over ~150 km from west to east. Seafloor bathymetry and backscatter imagery show the potential imprints of the 2003 event and of previous events. Large slope scarps resulting from active deformation may locally enhance sediment instabilities, although faults are not directly visible at the seafloor. Erosion is evident at the foot of the margin and along the paths of the numerous canyons and valleys. Cable breaks are located at the outlets of submarine valleys and in areas of turbiditic levee overspilling and demonstrate the multi-source and multi-path character of the 2003 turbiditic event. Rough estimates of turbidity flow velocity are not straightforward because of the multiple breaks along the same cable, but seem compatible with those measured in other submarine cable break studies elsewhere.

While the signature of the turbidity currents is mostly erosional on the continental slope, turbidite beds alternating with hemipelagites accumulate in the distal reaches of sediment dispersal systems. In perspective, more chronological work on distal turbidite successions offshore Algeria offers promising perspectives for paleoseismology reconstructions based on turbidite dating, if synchronous turbidites along independent sedimentary dispersal systems are found to support triggering by major earthquakes. Preliminary results on sediment core PSM-KS23 off Boumerdès typically show a 800-yr interval between turbidites during the Holocene, in accordance with the estimated mean seismic cycle on land, even if at this stage it is not yet possible to prove the earthquake origin of all the turbidites.

Evaluating spatial and temporal relationships between an earthquake cluster near Entiat, central Washington, and the large December 1872 Entiat earthquake

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Brocher, Thomas M.; Blakely, Richard J.; Sherrod, Brian

2017-01-01

We investigate spatial and temporal relations between an ongoing and prolific seismicity cluster in central Washington, near Entiat, and the 14 December 1872 Entiat earthquake, the largest historic crustal earthquake in Washington. A fault scarp produced by the 1872 earthquake lies within the Entiat cluster; the locations and areas of both the cluster and the estimated 1872 rupture surface are comparable. Seismic intensities and the 1–2 m of coseismic displacement suggest a magnitude range between 6.5 and 7.0 for the 1872 earthquake. Aftershock forecast models for (1) the first several hours following the 1872 earthquake, (2) the largest felt earthquakes from 1900 to 1974, and (3) the seismicity within the Entiat cluster from 1976 through 2016 are also consistent with this magnitude range. Based on this aftershock modeling, most of the current seismicity in the Entiat cluster could represent aftershocks of the 1872 earthquake. Other earthquakes, especially those with long recurrence intervals, have long‐lived aftershock sequences, including the Mw">MwMw 7.5 1891 Nobi earthquake in Japan, with aftershocks continuing 100 yrs after the mainshock. Although we do not rule out ongoing tectonic deformation in this region, a long‐lived aftershock sequence can account for these observations.

Investigation of the relationship between ionospheric foF2 and earthquakes

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Karaboga, Tuba; Canyilmaz, Murat; Ozcan, Osman

2018-04-01

Variations of the ionospheric F2 region critical frequency (foF2) have been investigated statistically before earthquakes during 1980-2008 periods in Japan area. Ionosonde data was taken from Kokubunji station which is in the earthquake preparation zone for all earthquakes. Standard Deviations and Inter-Quartile Range methods are applied to the foF2 data. It is observed that there are anomalous variations in foF2 before earthquakes. These variations can be regarded as ionospheric precursors and may be used for earthquake prediction.

Living with earthquakes - development and usage of earthquake-resistant construction methods in European and Asian Antiquity

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Kázmér, Miklós; Major, Balázs; Hariyadi, Agus; Pramumijoyo, Subagyo; Ditto Haryana, Yohanes

2010-05-01

Earthquakes are among the most horrible events of nature due to unexpected occurrence, for which no spiritual means are available for protection. The only way of preserving life and property is applying earthquake-resistant construction methods. Ancient Greek architects of public buildings applied steel clamps embedded in lead casing to hold together columns and masonry walls during frequent earthquakes in the Aegean region. Elastic steel provided strength, while plastic lead casing absorbed minor shifts of blocks without fracturing rigid stone. Romans invented concrete and built all sizes of buildings as a single, unflexible unit. Masonry surrounding and decorating concrete core of the wall did not bear load. Concrete resisted minor shaking, yielding only to forces higher than fracture limits. Roman building traditions survived the Dark Ages and 12th century Crusader castles erected in earthquake-prone Syria survive until today in reasonably good condition. Concrete and steel clamping persisted side-by-side in the Roman Empire. Concrete was used for cheap construction as compared to building of masonry. Applying lead-encased steel increased costs, and was avoided whenever possible. Columns of the various forums in Italian Pompeii mostly lack steel fittings despite situated in well-known earthquake-prone area. Whether frequent recurrence of earthquakes in the Naples region was known to inhabitants of Pompeii might be a matter of debate. Seemingly the shock of the AD 62 earthquake was not enough to apply well-known protective engineering methods throughout the reconstruction of the city before the AD 79 volcanic catastrophe. An independent engineering tradition developed on the island of Java (Indonesia). The mortar-less construction technique of 8-9th century Hindu masonry shrines around Yogyakarta would allow scattering of blocks during earthquakes. To prevent dilapidation an intricate mortise-and-tenon system was carved into adjacent faces of blocks. Only the

Spatial Evaluation and Verification of Earthquake Simulators

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, John Max; Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Schultz, Kasey W.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we address the problem of verifying earthquake simulators with observed data. Earthquake simulators are a class of computational simulations which attempt to mirror the topological complexity of fault systems on which earthquakes occur. In addition, the physics of friction and elastic interactions between fault elements are included in these simulations. Simulation parameters are adjusted so that natural earthquake sequences are matched in their scaling properties. Physically based earthquake simulators can generate many thousands of years of simulated seismicity, allowing for a robust capture of the statistical properties of large, damaging earthquakes that have long recurrence time scales. Verification of simulations against current observed earthquake seismicity is necessary, and following past simulator and forecast model verification methods, we approach the challenges in spatial forecast verification to simulators; namely, that simulator outputs are confined to the modeled faults, while observed earthquake epicenters often occur off of known faults. We present two methods for addressing this discrepancy: a simplistic approach whereby observed earthquakes are shifted to the nearest fault element and a smoothing method based on the power laws of the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model, which distributes the seismicity of each simulated earthquake over the entire test region at a decaying rate with epicentral distance. To test these methods, a receiver operating characteristic plot was produced by comparing the rate maps to observed m>6.0 earthquakes in California since 1980. We found that the nearest-neighbor mapping produced poor forecasts, while the ETAS power-law method produced rate maps that agreed reasonably well with observations.

Surficial sediment character of the New York-New Jersey offshore continental shelf region: a GIS compilation

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, S. Jeffress; Arsenault, Matthew A.; Poppe, Lawrence J.; Reid, Jane A.; Reid, Jamey M.; Jenkins, Chris J.

2007-01-01

Broad continental shelf regions such as the New York Bight are the product of a complex geologic history and dynamic oceanographic processes, dominated by the Holocene marine transgression (>100 m sea-level rise) following the end of the last Pleistocene ice advance ~ 20,000 years ago. The area of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (U.S. EEZ) territory, extending 200 nautical miles seaward from the coast, is larger than the continental U.S. and contains submerged landforms that provide a variety of natural functions and societal benefits, such as: critical habitats for fisheries, ship navigation and homeland security, and engineering activities (i.e. oil and gas platforms, pipeline and cable routes, potential wind-energy-generation sites). Some parts of the continental margins, particularly inner-continental shelf regions, also contain unconsolidated hard-mineral deposits such as sand and gravel that are regarded as potential aggregate resources to meet or augment needs not met by onshore deposits (Williams, 1992). The present distribution of surficial sediment off the northeastern United States is shaped from the deposits left by the last glaciation and reflects the cumulative effects of sediment erosion, transport, sorting, and deposition by storm and tidal processes during the Holocene rise in sea level. As a result, the sediments on the sea floor represent both an historical record of former conditions and a guide to possible future sedimentary environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) through the Coastal and Marine Geology Program, in cooperation with the University of Colorado and other partners, has compiled extant sediment character and textural data as well as other geologic information on the sea floor from all regions around the U.S. into the usSEABED data system (Reid and others, 2005; Buczkowski and others, 2006; Reid and others, 2006). The usSEABED system, which contains information on sediment grain size and lithology for more than 340

Earthquakes, detecting and understanding them

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-05-01

The signatures at the surface of the Earth is continually changing on a geological timescale. The tectonic plates, which make up this surface, are moving in relation to each other. On human timescale, these movements are the result of earthquakes, which suddenly, release energy accumulated over a period of time. The vibrations they produce propagate through the interior of the Earth: these are seismic waves. However, other phenomena can generate seismic waves, such as volcanoes, quarry blasts, etc. The surf of the ocean waves on the coasts, the wind in the trees and human activity (industry and road traffic) all contribute to the 'seismic background noise'. Sensors are able to detect signals from events which are then discriminated, analyzed and located. Earthquakes and active volcanoes are not distributed randomly over the surface of the globe: they mainly coincide with mountain chains and ocean trenches and ridges. 'An earthquake results from the abrupt release of the energy accumulated by movements and rubbing of different plates'. The study of the propagation of seismic waves has allowed to determine the outline of the plates inside the Earth and has highlighted their movements. There are seven major plates which are colliding, diverging or sliding past each other. Each year the continents move several centimeters with respect to one another. This process, known as 'continental drift', was finally explained by plate tectonics. The initial hypothesis for this science dates from the beginning of the 20. century, but it was not confirmed until the 1960's. It explains that convection inside the Earth is the source of the forces required for these movements. This science, as well as explaining these great movements, has provided a coherent, unifying and quantitative framework, which unites the explanations for all the geophysical phenomena under one mechanism. (authors)

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Muhammad

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Earthquake correlations and networks: A comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krishna Mohan, T. R.; Revathi, P. G.

2011-01-01

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to extract causally connected earthquake pairs. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski [M. Baiesi and M. Paczuski, Phys. Rev. E 69, 066106 (2004)]. A network of earthquakes is then constructed from the time-ordered catalog and with links between the more correlated ones. A list of recurrences to each of the earthquakes is identified employing correlation thresholds to demarcate the most meaningful ones in each cluster. Data pertaining to three different seismic regions (viz., California, Japan, and the Himalayas) are comparatively analyzed using such a network model. The distribution of recurrence lengths and recurrence times are two of the key features analyzed to draw conclusions about the universal aspects of such a network model. We find that the unimodal feature of recurrence length distribution, which helps to associate typical rupture lengths with different magnitude earthquakes, is robust across the different seismic regions. The out-degree of the networks shows a hub structure rooted on the large magnitude earthquakes. In-degree distribution is seen to be dependent on the density of events in the neighborhood. Power laws, with two regimes having different exponents, are obtained with recurrence time distribution. The first regime confirms the Omori law for aftershocks while the second regime, with a faster falloff for the larger recurrence times, establishes that pure spatial recurrences also follow a power-law distribution. The crossover to the second power-law regime can be taken to be signaling the end of the aftershock regime in an objective fashion.

Potential influence of inter-continental transport of sulfate aerosols on air quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Junfeng; Mauzerall, Denise L

2007-01-01

In this study, we compare the potential influence of inter-continental transport of sulfate aerosols on the air quality of (different) continental regions. We use a global chemical transport model, Model of Ozone and Related Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2), to quantify the source-receptor relationships of inter-continental transport of sulfate aerosols among ten regions in 2000. In order to compare the importance of foreign with domestic emissions and to estimate the effect of future changes in emissions on human exposure, we define an 'influence potential' (IP). The IP quantifies the human exposure that occurs in a receptor region as a result of a unit of SO 2 emissions from a source region. We find that due to the non-linear nature of sulfate production, regions with low SO 2 emissions usually have large domestic IP, and vice versa. An exception is East Asia (EA), which has both high SO 2 emissions and relatively large domestic IP, mostly caused by the spatial coincidence of emissions and population. We find that inter-continental IPs are usually less than domestic IPs by 1-3 orders of magnitude. SO 2 emissions from the Middle East (ME) and Europe (EU) have the largest potential to influence populations in surrounding regions. By comparing the IP ratios (IPR) between foreign and domestic SO 2 emissions, we find that the IPR values range from 0.000 01 to 0.16 and change with season. Therefore, if reducing human exposure to sulfate aerosols is the objective, all regions should first focus on reducing domestic SO 2 emissions. In addition, we find that relatively high IPR values exist among the EU, ME, the former Soviet Union (FSU) and African (AF) regions. Therefore, on the basis of the IP and IPR values, we conclude that a regional agreement among EA countries, and an inter-regional agreement among EU, ME, FSU and (north) AF regions to control sulfur emissions could benefit public health in these regions

Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

2006-01-01

Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions