Sample records for contemporary arctic change

  1. Contemporary Arctic Sea Level (United States)

    Cazenave, A. A.


    During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic

  2. Historical and contemporary imagery to assess ecosystem change on the Arctic coastal plain of northern Alaska (United States)

    Tape, Ken D.; Pearce, John M.; Walworth, Dennis; Meixell, Brandt W.; Fondell, Tom F.; Gustine, David D.; Flint, Paul L.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Ward, David H.


    The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low-relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at unprecedented rates. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) research initiative was developed to investigate and forecast these rapid changes in the physical environment of the Arctic, and the associated changes to wildlife populations, in order to inform key management decisions by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Forecasting future wildlife responses to changes in the Arctic can benefit greatly from historical records that inform what changes have already occurred. Several Arctic wildlife and plant species have already responded to climatic and physical changes to the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Thus, we located historical aerial imagery to improve our understanding of recent habitat changes and the associated response to such changes by wildlife populations.

  3. The effects of land cover and land use change on the contemporary carbon balance of the arctic and boreal terrestrial ecosystems of northern Eurasia (United States)

    Hayes, Daniel J.; McGuire, A. David; Kicklighter, David W.; Burnside , Todd J.; Melillo, Jerry M.


    Recent changes in climate, disturbance regimes and land use and management systems in Northern Eurasia have the potential to disrupt the terrestrial sink of atmospheric CO2 in a way that accelerates global climate change. To determine the recent trends in the carbon balance of the arctic and boreal ecosystems of this region, we performed a retrospective analysis of terrestrial carbon dynamics across northern Eurasia over a recent 10-year period using a terrestrial biogeochemical process model. The results of the simulations suggest a shift in direction of the net flux from the terrestrial sink of earlier decades to a net source on the order of 45 Tg C year−1between 1997 and 2006. The simulation framework and subsequent analyses presented in this study attribute this shift to a large loss of carbon from boreal forest ecosystems, which experienced a trend of decreasing precipitation and a large area burned during this time period.

  4. Arctic action against climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njaastad, Birgit


    The articles describes efforts to map the climatic changes in the Arctic regions through the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Project which is a joint venture between eight Arctic countries: Denmark, Canada, the USA, Russia, Finland, Sweden and Norway. The project deals with the consequences of the changes such as the UV radiation due to diminishing ozone layers. The aims are: Evaluate and integrate existing knowledge in the field and evaluate and predict the consequences particularly on the environment both in the present and the future and produce reliable and useful information in order to aid the decision-making processes

  5. Arctic alpine ecosystems and people in a changing environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ørbæk, Jon Børre


    ... for the population structures and the interaction between species. These changes may also have socio-economic effects if the changes affect the bio-production, which form the basis for the marine and terrestrial food chains. The book is uniquely multidisciplinary and provides examples of various aspects of contemporary environmental change in arctic and ...

  6. Public Perceptions of Arctic Change (United States)

    Hamilton, L.


    What does the general US public know, or think they know, about Arctic change? Two broad nationwide surveys in 2006 and 2010 addressed this topic in general terms, before and after the International Polar Year (IPY). Since then a series of representative national or statewide surveys have carried this research farther. The new surveys employ specific questions that assess public knowledge of basic Arctic facts, along with perceptions about the possible consequences of future Arctic change. Majorities know that late-summer Arctic sea ice area has declined compared with 30 years ago, although substantial minorities -- lately increasing -- believe instead that it has now recovered to historical levels. Majorities also believe that, if the Arctic warms in the future, this will have major effects on the weather where they live. Their expectation of local impacts from far-away changes suggests a degree of global thinking. On the other hand, most respondents do poorly when asked whether melting Arctic sea ice, melting Greenland/Antarctic land ice, or melting Himalayan glaciers could have more effect on sea level. Only 30% knew or guessed the right answer to this question. Similarly, only 33% answered correctly on a simple geography quiz: whether the North Pole could best be described as ice a few feet or yards thick floating over a deep ocean, ice more than a mile thick over land, or a rocky, mountainous landscape. Close analysis of response patterns suggests that people often construct Arctic "knowledge" on items such as sea ice increase/decrease from their more general ideology or worldview, such as their belief (or doubt) that anthropogenic climate change is real. When ideology or worldviews provide no guidance, as on the North Pole or sealevel questions, the proportion of accurate answers is no better than chance. These results show at least casual public awareness and interest in Arctic change, unfortunately not well grounded in knowledge. Knowledge problems seen on

  7. The Immediacy of Arctic Change: New 2016-17 Extremes (United States)

    Overland, J. E.; Kattsov, V.; Olsen, M. S.; Walsh, J. E.


    Additional recent observations add increased certainty to cryospheric Arctic changes, and trends are very likely to continue past mid-century. Observed and projected Arctic changes are large compared with those at mid-latitude, driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and Arctic feedbacks. Sea ice has undergone a regime shift from mostly multi-year to first-year sea ice, and summer sea ice is likely to be esentially gone within the next few decades. Spring snow cover is decreasing, and Arctic greening is increasing, although somewhat variable. There are potential emerging impacts of Arctic change on mid-latitude weather and sea level rise. Model assessments under different future GHG concentration scenarios show that stabilizing global temperatures near 2° C compliant with Paris agreement could slow, but not halt further major changes in the Arctic before mid- 21st century; foreseeable Arctic temperature changes are 4-5° C for fall/winter by 2040-2050. Substantial and immediate mitigation reductions in GHG emissions (at least at the level of the RCP 4.5 emission scenario) should reduce the risk of further change for most cryospheric components after mid-century, and reduce the likelyhood of potential runaway loss of ice sheets and glaciers and their impact on sea level rise. Extreme winter 2016 Arctic temperatures and a large winter 2017 sea ice deficit demonstrate contemporary climate states outside the envelope of previous experience. While there is confidence in the sign of Arctic changes, recent observations increase uncertainty in projecting the rate for future real world scenarios. Do events return to mean conditions, represent irreversible changes, or contribute to accelerating trends beyond those provided by climate models? Such questions highlight the need for improved quantitative prediction of the cryosphere and its global impacts, crucial for adaptation actions and risk management at local to global scales.

  8. Arctic adaptation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agnew, T.A.; Headley, A.


    The amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic and the sensitivity of physical, biological, and human systems to changes in climate make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Large areas of the Arctic permafrost and sea ice are expected to disappear under climate warming and these changes will have considerable impacts on the natural and built environment of the north. A review is presented of some recent studies on what these impacts could be for the permafrost and sea ice environment and to identify linkages with socioeconomic activities. Terrestrial adaptation to climate change will include increases in ground temperature; melting of permafrost with consequences such as frost heave, mudslides, and substantial settlement; rotting of peat contained in permafrost areas, with subsequent emission of CO 2 ; increased risk of forest fire; and flooding of low-lying areas. With regard to the manmade environment, structures that will be affected include buildings, pipelines, highways, airports, mines, and railways. In marine areas, climate change will increase the ice-free period for marine transport operations and thus provide some benefit to the offshore petroleum industry. This benefit will be offset by increased wave height and period, and increased coastal erosion. The offshore industry needs to be particularly concerned with these impacts since the expected design life of industry facilities (30-60 y) is of the same order as the time frame for possible climatic changes. 18 refs., 5 figs

  9. Changing Arctic Ocean freshwater pathways. (United States)

    Morison, James; Kwok, Ron; Peralta-Ferriz, Cecilia; Alkire, Matt; Rigor, Ignatius; Andersen, Roger; Steele, Mike


    Freshening in the Canada basin of the Arctic Ocean began in the 1990s and continued to at least the end of 2008. By then, the Arctic Ocean might have gained four times as much fresh water as comprised the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s, raising the spectre of slowing global ocean circulation. Freshening has been attributed to increased sea ice melting and contributions from runoff, but a leading explanation has been a strengthening of the Beaufort High--a characteristic peak in sea level atmospheric pressure--which tends to accelerate an anticyclonic (clockwise) wind pattern causing convergence of fresh surface water. Limited observations have made this explanation difficult to verify, and observations of increasing freshwater content under a weakened Beaufort High suggest that other factors must be affecting freshwater content. Here we use observations to show that during a time of record reductions in ice extent from 2005 to 2008, the dominant freshwater content changes were an increase in the Canada basin balanced by a decrease in the Eurasian basin. Observations are drawn from satellite data (sea surface height and ocean-bottom pressure) and in situ data. The freshwater changes were due to a cyclonic (anticlockwise) shift in the ocean pathway of Eurasian runoff forced by strengthening of the west-to-east Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characterized by an increased Arctic Oscillation index. Our results confirm that runoff is an important influence on the Arctic Ocean and establish that the spatial and temporal manifestations of the runoff pathways are modulated by the Arctic Oscillation, rather than the strength of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre circulation.

  10. Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective. (United States)

    Corell, Robert W


    Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.

  11. The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic. (United States)

    Bintanja, R; van der Linden, E C


    Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of the world. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming concerns Arctic winter warming (AWW), which exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses and state-of-the-art climate models in a variety of standardised climate change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked to winter sea ice retreat through the associated release of surplus ocean heat gained in summer through the ice-albedo feedback (~25%), and to infrared radiation feedbacks (~75%). Arctic summer warming is surprisingly modest, even after summer sea ice has completely disappeared. Quantifying the seasonally varying changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice and the associated feedbacks helps to more accurately quantify the likelihood of Arctic's climate changes, and to assess their impact on local ecosystems and socio-economic activities.

  12. Detecting and Understanding Changing Arctic Carbon Emissions (United States)

    Bruhwiler, L.


    Warming in the Arctic has proceeded faster than anyplace on Earth. Our current understanding of biogeochemistry suggests that we can expect feedbacks between climate and carbon in the Arctic. Changes in terrestrial fluxes of carbon can be expected as the Arctic warms, and the vast stores of organic carbon frozen in Arctic soils could be mobilized to the atmosphere, with possible significant impacts on global climate. Quantifying trends in Arctic carbon exchanges is important for policymaking because greater reductions in anthropogenic emissions may be required to meet climate goals. Observations of greenhouse gases in the Arctic and globally have been collected for several decades. Analysis of this data does not currently support significantly changed Arctic emissions of CH4, however it is difficult to detect changes in Arctic emissions because of transport from lower latitudes and large inter-annual variability. Unfortunately, current space-based remote sensing systems have limitations at Arctic latitudes. Modeling systems can help untangle the Arctic budget of greenhouse gases, but they are dependent on underlying prior fluxes, wetland distributions and global anthropogenic emissions. Also, atmospheric transport models may have significant biases and errors. For example, unrealistic near-surface stability can lead to underestimation of emissions in atmospheric inversions. We discuss our current understanding of the Arctic carbon budget from both top-down and bottom-up approaches. We show that current atmospheric inversions agree well on the CH4 budget. On the other hand, bottom-up models vary widely in their predictions of natural emissions, with some models predicting emissions too large to be accommodated by the budget implied by global observations. Large emissions from the shallow Arctic ocean are also inconsistent with atmospheric observations. We also discuss the sensitivity of the current atmospheric network to what is likely small, gradual increases in

  13. Changing geo-political realities in the Arctic region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Camilla T. N.


    This article analyzes and discusses how Denmark seeks to manage the changing geopolitical realities in the Arctic region specifically focusing on how Denmark seeks to manage its relations with China in the Arctic region.......This article analyzes and discusses how Denmark seeks to manage the changing geopolitical realities in the Arctic region specifically focusing on how Denmark seeks to manage its relations with China in the Arctic region....

  14. Greenland and the international politics of a changing arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greenland and the International Politics of a Changing Arctic examines the international politics of semi-independent Greenland in a changing and increasingly globalised Arctic. Without sovereign statehood, but with increased geopolitical importance, independent foreign policy ambitions......, and a solidified self-image as a trailblazer for Arctic indigenous peoples’ rights, Greenland is making its mark on the Arctic and is in turn affected – and empowered – by Arctic developments. The chapters in this collection analyse how a distinct Greenlandic foreign policy identity shapes political ends and means...... for regional change in the Arctic. This is the first comprehensive and interdisciplinary examination of Greenland’s international relations and how they are connected to wider Arctic politics. It will be essential reading for students and scholars interested in Arctic governance and security, international...

  15. Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic (United States)

    Brigham, L. W.


    Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

  16. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  17. Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendriksen, Kåre


    Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability Kåre Hendriksen, PhD student, Aalborg University, Denmark The previous isolation of the Arctic will change as a wide range of areas increasingly are integrated into the globalized world....... Coinciding climate changes cause an easier access for worldwide market as well as for the extraction of coastal oil and mineral resources. In an attempt to optimize the fishing fleet by economic measures it is centralized to larger units, and the exports of unprocessed fish and shellfish to low wage...... in contemporary developments leaving them with a feeling of being powerless. The consequences of contemporary policies and the problems arising will be illustrated through examples from traditional hunting and fishing districts in Greenland....

  18. Arctic security in an age of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraska, James (ed.)


    Publisher review: This book examines Arctic defense policy and military security from the perspective of all eight Arctic states. In light of climate change and melting ice in the Arctic Ocean, Canada, Russia, Denmark (Greenland), Norway and the United States, as well as Iceland, Sweden and Finland, are grappling with an emerging Arctic security paradigm. This volume brings together the world's most seasoned Arctic political-military experts from Europe and North America to analyze how Arctic nations are adapting their security postures to accommodate increased shipping, expanding naval presence, and energy and mineral development in the polar region. The book analyzes the ascent of Russia as the first 'Arctic superpower', the growing importance of polar security for NATO and the Nordic states, and the increasing role of Canada and the United States in the region.(Author)

  19. Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic (United States)

    Bigras, S. C.


    It is an accepted fact that the Earth’s climate is warming. Recent research has demonstrated the direct links between the Arctic regions and the rest of the planet. We have become more aware that these regions are feeling the effects of global climate change more intensely than anywhere else on Earth -- and that they are fast becoming the new frontiers for resources and political disputes. This paper examines some of the potential climate change impacts in the Arctic and how the science of climate change can be used to develop policies that will help mitigate some of these impacts. Despite the growing body of research we do not yet completely understand the potential consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Climate models predict significant changes and impacts on the northern physical environment and renewable resources, and on the communities and societies that depend on them. Policies developed and implemented as a result of the research findings will be designed to help mitigate some of the more serious consequences. Given the importance of cost in making policy decisions, the financial implications of different scenarios will need to be considered. The Arctic Ocean Basin is a complex and diverse environment shared by five Arctic states. Cooperation among the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean is often difficult, as each country has its own political and social agenda. Northerners and indigenous peoples should be engaged and able to influence the direction of northern adaptation policies. Along with climate change, the Arctic environment and Arctic residents face many other challenges, among them safe resource development. Resource development in the Arctic has always been a controversial issue, seen by some as a solution to high unemployment and by others as an unacceptably disruptive and destructive force. Its inherent risks need to be considered: there are needs for adaptation, for management frameworks, for addressing cumulative effects, and for

  20. Climate change and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gilg, Olivier; Kovacs, Kit M.; Aars, J.


    Climate change is taking place more rapidly and severely in the Arctic than anywhere on the globe, exposing Arctic vertebrates to a host of impacts. Changes in the cryosphere dominate the physical changes that already affect these animals, but increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation......, and ocean acidification will also affect Arctic ecosystems in the future. Adaptation via natural selection is problematic in such a rapidly changing environment. Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity is therefore likely to dominate Arctic vertebrate responses in the short term, and many such adjustments have...... already been documented. Changes in phenology and range will occur for most species but will only partly mitigate climate change impacts, which are particularly difficult to forecast due to the many interactions within and between trophic levels. Even though Arctic species richness is increasing via...

  1. Biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, C.; Bluhm, B.; Gallucci, V.


    The Arctic Ocean is undergoing major changes in many of its fundamental physical constituents, from a shift from multi- to first-year ice, shorter ice-covered periods, increasing freshwater runoff and surface stratification, to warming and alteration in the distribution of water masses....... These changes have important impacts on the chemical and biological processes that are at the root of marine food webs, influencing their structure, function and biodiversity. Here we summarise current knowledge on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and provide an overview of fundamental factors...... that structure ecosystem biodiversity in the Arctic Ocean. We also discuss climateassociated effects on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and discuss implications for the functioning of Arctic marine food webs. Based on the complexity and regional character of Arctic ecosystem reponses...

  2. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change (United States)

    McGuire, A. David; Anderson, Leif G.; Christensen, Torben R.; Dallimore, Scott; Guo, Laodong; Hayes, Daniel J.; Heimann, Martin; Lorenson, T.D.; Macdonald, Robie W.; Roulet, Nigel


    The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO2 and CH4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH4/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon

  3. New views on changing Arctic vegetation (United States)

    Kennedy, Robert E.


    As climate changes, how will terrestrial vegetation respond? Because the fates of many biogeochemical, hydrological and economic cycles depend on vegetation, this question is fundamental to climate change science but extremely challenging to address. This is particularly true in the Arctic, where temperature change has been most acute globally (IPCC 2007) and where potential feedbacks to carbon, energy and hydrological cycles have important implications for the rest of the Earth system (Chapin et al 2000). It is well known that vegetation is tightly coupled to precipitation and temperature (Whittaker 1975), but predicting the response of vegetation to changes in climate involves much more than invoking the limitations of climate envelopes (Thuiller et al 2008). Models must also consider efficacy of dispersal, soil constraints, ecological interactions, possible CO2 fertilization impacts and the changing impact of other, more proximal anthropogenic effects such as pollution, disturbance, etc (Coops and Waring 2011, Lenihan et al 2008, Scheller and Mladenoff 2005). Given this complexity, a key test will be whether models can match empirical observations of changes that have already occurred. The challenge is finding empirical observations of change that are appropriate to test hypothesized impacts of climate change. As climate gradually changes across broad bioclimatic gradients, vegetation condition may change gradually as well. To capture these gradual trends, observations need at least three characteristics: (1) they must quantify a vegetation attribute that is expected to change, (2) they must measure that attribute in exactly the same way over long periods of time, and (3) they must sample diverse communities at geographic scales commensurate with the scale of expected climatic shifts. Observation networks meeting all three criteria are rare anywhere on the globe, but particularly so in remote areas. For this reason, satellite images have long been used as a

  4. Arctic indigenous peoples as representations and representatives of climate change. (United States)

    Martello, Marybeth Long


    Recent scientific findings, as presented in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), indicate that climate change in the Arctic is happening now, at a faster rate than elsewhere in the world, and with major implications for peoples of the Arctic (especially indigenous peoples) and the rest of the planet. This paper examines scientific and political representations of Arctic indigenous peoples that have been central to the production and articulation of these claims. ACIA employs novel forms and strategies of representation that reflect changing conceptual models and practices of global change science and depict indigenous peoples as expert, exotic, and at-risk. These portrayals emerge alongside the growing political activism of Arctic indigenous peoples who present themselves as representatives or embodiments of climate change itself as they advocate for climate change mitigation policies. These mutually constitutive forms of representation suggest that scientific ways of seeing the global environment shape and are shaped by the public image and voice of global citizens. Likewise, the authority, credibility, and visibility of Arctic indigenous activists derive, in part, from their status as at-risk experts, a status buttressed by new scientific frameworks and methods that recognize and rely on the local experiences and knowledges of indigenous peoples. Analyses of these relationships linking scientific and political representations of Arctic climate change build upon science and technology studies (STS) scholarship on visualization, challenge conventional notions of globalization, and raise questions about power and accountability in global climate change research.

  5. Building Resilience and Adaptation to Manage Arctic Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapin, F. Stuart III [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology; Hoel, Michael [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Economics; Carpenter, Steven R. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI, (US). Center for Limnology] (and others)


    Unprecedented global changes caused by human actions challenge society's ability to sustain the desirable features of our planet. This requires proactive management of change to foster both resilience (sustaining those attributes that are important to society in the face of change) and adaptation (developing new socio- ecological configurations that function effectively under new conditions). The Arctic may be one of the last remaining opportunities to plan for change in a spatially extensive region where many of the ancestral ecological and social processes and feedbacks are still intact. If the feasibility of this strategy can be demonstrated in the Arctic, our improved understanding of the dynamics of change can be applied to regions with greater human modification. Conditions may now be ideal to implement policies to manage Arctic change because recent studies provide the essential scientific understanding, appropriate international institutions are in place, and Arctic nations have the wealth to institute necessary changes, if they choose to do so.

  6. Collaborative Research: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)


    This project developed and applied a regional Arctic System model for enhanced decadal predictions. It built on successful research by four of the current PIs with support from the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program, which has resulted in the development of a fully coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) consisting of atmosphere, land-hydrology, ocean and sea ice components. An expanded RACM, a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has been set up to include ice sheets, ice caps, mountain glaciers, and dynamic vegetation to allow investigation of coupled physical processes responsible for decadal-scale climate change and variability in the Arctic. RASM can have high spatial resolution (~4-20 times higher than currently practical in global models) to advance modeling of critical processes and determine the need for their explicit representation in Global Earth System Models (GESMs). The pan-Arctic region is a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification. However, a system-level understanding of critical arctic processes and feedbacks needs further development. Rapid climate change has occurred in a number of Arctic System components during the past few decades, including retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet, acceleration and thinning of outlet glaciers, reduced snow cover, thawing permafrost, and shifts in vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation and heat budget, ecosystems, native communities, natural resource exploration, and commercial transportation. The overarching goal of the RASM project has been to advance understanding of past and present states of arctic climate and to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. To do this the project has focused on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The three foci of this research are: - Changes

  7. Breast cancer in the Arctic - changes over the past decades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fredslund, Stine Overvad; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva Cecilie


    , the known established risk factors alone cannot account for the increasing trend observed. Studies suggest that environmental contaminants such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) including perfluorinated compounds increase the risk of BC possibly in conjunction with certain genetic polymorphisms...... unfortunately increases the known risk factors of BC. Moreover, the population of the Arctic might show up to be especially vulnerable because of the contemporary high burden of POPs and genetic susceptibility....

  8. Synthesizing International Understanding of Changes in the Arctic Hydrological System (United States)

    Pundsack, J. W.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Hinzman, L. D.


    There are several notable gaps in our current level of understanding of Arctic hydrological systems. At the same time, rapidly emerging data sets, technologies, and modeling resources provide us with an unprecedented opportunity to move substantially forward. The Arctic Community-Wide Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring Program (Arctic-CHAMP), funded by NSF/ARCSS, was established to initiate a major effort to improve our current monitoring of water cycle variables, and to foster collaboration with the many relevant U.S. and international arctic research initiatives. These projects, funded under ARCSS through the ‘Freshwater Integration (FWI) study’, links CHAMP, the Arctic/Subarctic Ocean Fluxes (ASOF) Programme, and SEARCH. As part of the overall synthesis and integration efforts of the NSF-ARCSS Freshwater Integration (FWI) study, the program carried-out a major International Synthesis Capstone Workshop in Fall 2009 as an International Polar Year (IPY) affiliated meeting. The workshop, "Synthesizing International Understanding of Changes in the Arctic Hydrological System,” was held 30 September to 4 October 2009 in Stockholm at the Beijer Auditorium of the Royal Swedish Academy. The workshop was sponsored by the NSF-ARCSS Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office (City College of New York / Univ. of New Hampshire), the International Study of Arctic Change (ISAC), and the International Arctic Research Center (IARC; Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks). The overarching goals of the meeting were to stage a post-IPY lessons-learned workshop with co-equal numbers of FWI, IPY, and ICARP-II researchers, using insights from recent scientific findings, data, and strategies to afford synthesis. The workshop aimed to: (1) take stock of recent advances in our understanding of changes in the Arctic hydrological system; (2) identify key remaining research gaps / unanswered questions; and (3) gather insight on where to focus future research efforts/initiatives (nationally and

  9. Arctic Climate and Climate Change with a Focus on Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Petersen, Dorthe


    Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that the Arctic presently is warmer than during the last 125,000 years, and it is very likely11The term "likelihood" is used here as in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). According to the definition in this rep...... Ice Sheet, the fate of arctic sea ice and a possible weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC) under future warming conditions have led to increased research activities, including an assessment of arctic climate and climate change (ACIA, 2005), the fourth assessment report (AR4...

  10. Climate change and zoonotic infections in the Russian Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Revich


    Full Text Available Climate change in the Russian Arctic is more pronounced than in any other part of the country. Between 1955 and 2000, the annual average air temperature in the Russian North increased by 1.2°C. During the same period, the mean temperature of upper layer of permafrost increased by 3°C. Climate change in Russian Arctic increases the risks of the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. This review presents data on morbidity rates among people, domestic animals and wildlife in the Russian Arctic, focusing on the potential climate related emergence of such diseases as tick-borne encephalitis, tularemia, brucellosis, leptospirosis, rabies, and anthrax.

  11. Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory: A Virtual Organization for Transformative Research and Education on a Changing Arctic (United States)

    Warnick, W. K.; Wiggins, H. V.; Hinzman, L.; Holland, M.; Murray, M. S.; Vörösmarty, C.; Loring, A. J.


    About the Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory The Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory concept, developed through a series of NSF-funded workshops and town hall meetings, is envisioned as a cyber-enabled, technical, organizational, and social-synthesis framework to foster: • Interactions among interdisciplinary experts and stakeholders • Integrated data analysis and modeling activities • Training and development of the arctic science community • Delivery of outreach, education, and policy-relevant resources Scientific Rationale The rapid rate of arctic change and our incomplete understanding of the arctic system present the arctic community with a grand scientific challenge and three related issues. First, a wealth of observations now exists as disconnected data holdings, which must be coordinated and synthesized to fully detect and assess arctic change. Second, despite great strides in the development of arctic system simulations, we still have incomplete capabilities for modeling and predicting the behavior of the system as a whole. Third, policy-makers, stakeholders, and the public are increasingly making demands of the science community for forecasts and guidance in mitigation and adaptation strategies. Collaboratory Components The Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory is organized around four integrated functions that will be established virtually as a distributed set of activities, but also with the advantage of existing facilities that could sponsor some of the identified activities. Community Network "Meeting Grounds:" The Collaboratory will link distributed individuals, organizations, and activities to enable collaboration and foster new research initiatives. Specific activities could include: an expert directory, social networking services, and virtual and face-to-face meetings. Data Integration, Synthesis, and Modeling Activities: The Collaboratory will utilize appropriate tools to enable the combination of data and models. Specific activities could include: a web

  12. Recent Changes in the Arctic Melt Season (United States)

    Stroeve, Julienne; Markus, Thorsten; Meier, Walter N.; Miller, Jeff


    Melt-season duration, melt-onset and freeze-up dates are derived from satellite passive microwave data and analyzed from 1979 to 2005 over Arctic sea ice. Results indicate a shift towards a longer melt season, particularly north of Alaska and Siberia, corresponding to large retreats of sea ice observed in these regions. Although there is large interannual and regional variability in the length of the melt season, the Arctic is experiencing an overall lengthening of the melt season at a rate of about 2 weeks decade(sup -1). In fact, all regions in the Arctic (except for the central Arctic) have statistically significant (at the 99% level or higher) longer melt seasons by greater than 1 week decade(sup -1). The central Arctic shows a statistically significant trend (at the 98% level) of 5.4 days decade(sup -1). In 2005 the Arctic experienced its longest melt season, corresponding with the least amount of sea ice since 1979 and the warmest temperatures since the 1880s. Overall, the length of the melt season is inversely correlated with the lack of sea ice seen in September north of Alaska and Siberia, with a mean correlation of -0.8.

  13. Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.


    The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

  14. Vulnerability to climate change in the Arctic: a case study from Arctic Bay, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ford, J.D.; Smit, B.; Wandel, J. [University of Guelph, Ontario (Canada). Department of Geography


    This paper develops a vulnerability-based approach to characterize the human implications of climate change in Arctic Bay, Canada. It focuses on community vulnerabilities associated with resource harvesting and the processes through which people adapt to them in the context of livelihood assets, constraints, and outside influences. Inuit in Arctic Bay have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of changing climate-related exposures. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in seasonal hunting cycles, some modern technologies, and economic support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity, and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities in certain sections of the community. (author)

  15. Climate Change and Risk Management Challenges in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Uffe

    Climate change or global warming results in melting ice in the Arctic, both inland and sea ice. This opens up opportunities of natural ressource extraction and possibilities of new shipping routes, that opens up opportunities for increased maritime activities. However, with these opportunies come...... also the challenges of increased maritime activities that result in several risks in the Arctic such as the risk of pollution and the risks of accidents, which produce a need for preparedness towards oil spill and towards search and rescue (SAR) and institutions for SAR. Since the Arctic is such a huge...... possibilies of transborder risk management and partnership building....

  16. Pan-Arctic observations in GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project and its successor (United States)

    Yamanouchi, Takashi


    We started a Japanese initiative - "Arctic Climate Change Research Project" - within the framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program, funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT), in 2011. This Project targeted understanding and forecasting "Rapid Change of the Arctic Climate System and its Global Influences." Four strategic research targets are set by the Ministry: 1. Understanding the mechanism of warming amplification in the Arctic; 2. Understanding the Arctic climate system for global climate and future change; 3. Evaluation of the impacts of Arctic change on the weather and climate in Japan, marine ecosystems and fisheries; 4. Projection of sea ice distribution and Arctic sea routes. Through a network of universities and institutions in Japan, this 5-year Project involves more than 300 scientists from 39 institutions and universities. The National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) works as the core institute and The Japan Agency for Marine- Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) joins as the supporting institute. There are 7 bottom up research themes approved: the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, cryosphere, greenhouse gases, marine ecology and fisheries, sea ice and Arctic sea routes and climate modeling, among 22 applications. The Project will realize multi-disciplinal study of the Arctic region and connect to the projection of future Arctic and global climatic change by modeling. The project has been running since the beginning of 2011 and in those 5 years pan-Arctic observations have been carried out in many locations, such as Svalbard, Russian Siberia, Alaska, Canada, Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. In particular, 95 GHz cloud profiling radar in high precision was established at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, and intensive atmospheric observations were carried out in 2014 and 2015. In addition, the Arctic Ocean cruises by R/V "Mirai" (belonging to JAMSTEC) and other icebreakers belonging to other

  17. The Arctic--A Global Hot Spot: Resources for Teaching the Geography of the Contemporary Canadian Arctic (United States)

    Arntzen, Betsy; Sotherden, Amy


    Canadian geography is a fascinating topic, particularly the Canadian North. The North is central to Canadian identity as can be seen by the choice of the far north "inukshuk" standing stones as the emblem for the 2010 Winter Olympics held in Vancouver, southern British Columbia. Canada's Arctic is receiving increasing attention by media,…

  18. The Arctic: between climatic change, economic development and security issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degeorges, Damien


    The Arctic is a perfect illustration of how climate change is impacting international relations, in particular because it triggers new economic and safety issues. Since every major economic power has interests in the region, it has now become the stage of many rivalries, including between China and the United-States. Whether it is because its extreme climate conditions or the growing international pressure, the Arctic sets a new challenge for investors: securing a sustainable economic growth in the region

  19. The Arctic Report Card: Communicating the State of the Rapidly Changing Arctic to a Diverse Audience via the Worldwide Web (United States)

    Jeffries, M. O.; Richter-Menge, J.; Overland, J. E.; Soreide, N. N.


    Rapid change is occurring throughout the Arctic environmental system. The goal of the Arctic Report Card is to communicate the nature of the many changes to a diverse audience via the Worldwide Web. First published in 2006, the Arctic Report Card is a peer-reviewed publication containing clear, reliable and concise scientific information on the current state of the Arctic environment relative to observational records. Available only online, it is intended to be an authoritative source for scientists, teachers, students, decision-makers, policy-makers and the general public interested in the Arctic environment and science. The Arctic Report Card is organized into five sections: Atmosphere; Sea Ice & Ocean; Marine Ecosystem; Terrestrial Ecosystem; Terrestrial Cryosphere. Arctic Report Card 2012, the sixth annual update, comprised 20 essays on physical and biological topics prepared by an international team of 141 scientists from 15 different countries. For those who want a quick summary, the Arctic Report Card home page provides highlights of key events and findings, and a short video that is also available on YouTube. The release of the Report Card each autumn is preceded by a NOAA press release followed by a press conference, when the Web site is made public. The release of Arctic Report Card 2012 at an AGU Fall Meeting press conference on 5 December 2012 was subsequently reported by leading media organizations. The NOAA Arctic Web site, of which the Report Card is a part, is consistently at the top of Google search results for the keyword 'arctic', and the Arctic Report Card Web site tops search results for keyword "arctic report" - pragmatic indications of a Web site's importance and popularity. As another indication of the Web site's impact, in December 2012, the month when the 2012 update was released, the Arctic Report Card Web site was accessed by 19,851 unique sites in 105 countries, and 4765 Web site URLs referred to the Arctic Report Card. The 2012 Arctic

  20. Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torben Koenigk


    Full Text Available Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA. The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15°K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur.

  1. The Contribution to Arctic Climate Change from Countries in the Arctic Council (United States)

    Schultz, T.; MacCracken, M. C.


    The conventional accounting frameworks for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used today, established under the Kyoto Protocol 25 years ago, exclude short lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), and do not include regional effects on the climate. However, advances in climate science now suggest that mitigation of SLCPs can reduce up to 50% of global warming by 2050. It has also become apparent that regions such as the Arctic have experienced a much greater degree of anthropogenic warming than the globe as a whole, and that efforts to slow this warming could benefit the larger effort to slow climate change around the globe. A draft standard for life cycle assessment (LCA), LEO-SCS-002, being developed under the American National Standards Institute process, has integrated the most recent climate science into a unified framework to account for emissions of all radiatively significant GHGs and SLCPs. This framework recognizes four distinct impacts to the oceans and climate caused by GHGs and SLCPs: Global Climate Change; Arctic Climate Change; Ocean Acidification; and Ocean Warming. The accounting for Arctic Climate Change, the subject of this poster, is based upon the Absolute Regional Temperature Potential, which considers the incremental change to the Arctic surface temperature resulting from an emission of a GHG or SLCP. Results are evaluated using units of mass of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), which can be used by a broad array of stakeholders, including scientists, consumers, policy makers, and NGOs. This poster considers the contribution to Arctic Climate Change from emissions of GHGs and SLCPs from the eight member countries of the Arctic Council; the United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. Of this group of countries, the United States was the largest contributor to Arctic Climate Change in 2011, emitting 9600 MMT CO2e. This includes a gross warming of 11200 MMT CO2e (caused by GHGs, black and brown carbon, and warming effects

  2. Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature (United States)

    Bintanja, R.


    Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.

  3. Change Ringing - communicating climate change through contemporary classical music (United States)

    Kapur, Ravi; Osborn, Laurence; Shenai, Peter


    Change Ringing is a collaborative artwork by artist Peter Shenai and composer Laurence Osborn that forms around a playable sculpture and a large-scale composition. The sculpture incorporates a set of six bronze bells designed and cast by artist Peter Shenai. Their shapes are mathematically derived from graphic statistical representations of summer temperatures at seventeen-year intervals over the course of the twentieth century. Arranged according to the chronology of their corresponding data sets and struck in order, the bells voice a series of inharmonic spectra that communicate sonically the story of climate change during the twentieth century. This series forms the basis for Laurence Osborn's twenty-five minute composition, scored for string orchestra and the bells themselves. In Change Ringing, an artwork that combines music, sculpture, performance, and ritual, we want to move audiences and, in doing so, facilitate their engagement with ideas that are highly relevant today. We believe that the medium of musically organized sound, so often wrongly dismissed as "abstract" and non-referential, can be a more than adequate reflection of lived human experience in the 21st Century, and we work in the hope that Change Ringing will connect with contemporary audiences on the most fundamental level.

  4. Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic? (United States)

    Mech, L.D.


    Gobal climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80?? N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However, when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

  5. How Rapid Change Affects Deltas in the Arctic Region (United States)

    Overeem, I.; Bendixen, M.


    Deltas form where the river drains into the ocean. Consequently, delta depositional processes are impacted by either changes in the respective river drainage basin or by changes in the regional marine environment. In a warming Arctic region rapid change has occurred over the last few decades in both the terrestrial domain as well as in the marine domain. Important terrestrial controls include 1) change in permafrost possibly destabilizing river banks, 2) strong seasonality of river discharge due to a short melting season, 3) high sediment supply if basins are extensively glaciated, 4) lake outbursts and ice jams favoring river flooding. Whereas in the Arctic marine domain sea ice loss promotes wave and storm surge impact, and increased longshore transport. We here ask which of these factors dominate any morphological change in Arctic deltas. First, we analyze hydrological data to assess change in Arctic-wide river discharge characteristics and timing, and sea ice concentration data to map changes in sea ice regime. Based on this observational analysis we set up a number of scenarios of change. We then model hypothetical small-scale delta formation considering change in these primary controls by setting up a numerical delta model, and combining it dynamically with a permafrost model. We find that for typical Greenlandic deltas changes in river forcing due to ice sheet melt dominate the morphological change, which is corroborated by mapping of delta progradation from aerial photos and satellite imagery. Whereas in other areas, along the North Slope and the Canadian Arctic small deltas are more stable or experienced retreat. Our preliminary coupled model allows us to further disentangle the impact of major forcing factors on delta evolution in high-latitude systems.

  6. Transformational Change and Regime Shifts in the Circumpolar Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annika E. Nilsson


    Full Text Available The Arctic is changing rapidly, and there are many indications that the region is in the midst of transformational change. While some of the focus relates to impacts of climate change, rapid economic development and the potential for shifts in political and social structures in the region have also been in the limelight. This article looks at the circumpolar Arctic as a potential case of a regime shift in a large-scale social–ecological system that includes reinforcing feedbacks. A special focus is placed on governance structures, as these play an important role in social negotiations on the relationship between societies and the environment. While climate change is often portrayed as a driver of social change in the Arctic, it does not appear that the ongoing changes in the biophysical features of the Arctic region have rocked current circumpolar governance structures out of kilter. On the contrary, the ongoing climate-related changes, in particular sea ice decline, appear to have reinforced political commitment to existing legal structures. Major past social regime shifts have mainly been related to access to resources and national identity ideology, with political dynamics reinforced at times by military security considerations.

  7. Food and water security in a changing arctic climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, Daniel M; Gerlach, S Craig; Loring, Philip; Tidwell, Amy C; Chambers, Molly C


    In the Arctic, permafrost extends up to 500 m below the ground surface, and it is generally just the top metre that thaws in summer. Lakes, rivers, and wetlands on the arctic landscape are normally not connected with groundwater in the same way that they are in temperate regions. When the surface is frozen in winter, only lakes deeper than 2 m and rivers with significant flow retain liquid water. Surface water is largely abundant in summer, when it serves as a breeding ground for fish, birds, and mammals. In winter, many mammals and birds are forced to migrate out of the Arctic. Fish must seek out lakes or rivers deep enough to provide good overwintering habitat. Humans in the Arctic rely on surface water in many ways. Surface water meets domestic needs such as drinking, cooking, and cleaning as well as subsistence and industrial demands. Indigenous communities depend on sea ice and waterways for transportation across the landscape and access to traditional country foods. The minerals, mining, and oil and gas industries also use large quantities of surface water during winter to build ice roads and maintain infrastructure. As demand for this limited, but heavily-relied-upon resource continues to increase, it is now more critical than ever to understand the impacts of climate change on food and water security in the Arctic

  8. Greenland, Arctic Orientalism and the search for definitions of a contemporary postcolonial geography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars


    This article begins by discussing the applicability of Orientalism in the Arctic where it was first applied by Ann Fienup-Riordan in her work in the 1990s in relation to Inuit representation in American cinema/documentary. The article moves on to consider more broadly approaches to the Arctic...... what postcolonial sensibilities can be articulated through an analysis of the three films with a particular emphasis on the negotiation of Greenlandic, Greenlandic-Danish and Danish identities. Reading Greenland through a postcolonial lens as manifested in the Greenlandic space the films grant returns...

  9. Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes. (United States)

    Stammer, Detlef; Cazenave, Anny; Ponte, Rui M; Tamisiea, Mark E


    Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.

  10. Changing seasonality of Arctic hydrology disrupts key biotic linkages in Arctic aquatic ecosystems. (United States)

    Deegan, L.; MacKenzie, C.; Peterson, B. J.; Fishscape Project


    Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) is an important circumpolar species that provide a model system for understanding the impacts of changing seasonality on arctic ecosystem function. Grayling serve as food for other biota, including lake trout, birds and humans, and act as top-down controls in stream ecosystems. In Arctic tundra streams, grayling spend their summers in streams but are obligated to move back into deep overwintering lakes in the fall. Climatic change that affects the seasonality of river hydrology could have a significant impact on grayling populations: grayling may leave overwintering lakes sooner in the spring and return later in the fall due to a longer open water season, but the migration could be disrupted by drought due to increased variability in discharge. In turn, a shorter overwintering season may impact lake trout dynamics in the lakes, which may rely on the seasonal inputs of stream nutrients in the form of migrating grayling into these oligotrophic lakes. To assess how shifting seasonality of Arctic river hydrology may disrupt key trophic linkages within and between lake and stream components of watersheds on the North Slope of the Brooks Mountain Range, Alaska, we have undertaken new work on grayling and lake trout population and food web dynamics. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags coupled with stream-width antenna units to monitor grayling movement across Arctic tundra watersheds during the summer, and into overwintering habitat in the fall. Results indicate that day length may prime grayling migration readiness, but that flooding events are likely the cue grayling use to initiate migration in to overwintering lakes. Many fish used high discharge events in the stream as an opportunity to move into lakes. Stream and lake derived stable isotopes also indicate that lake trout rely on these seasonally transported inputs of stream nutrients for growth. Thus, changes in the seasonality of river hydrology may have broader

  11. Climate Change and China as a Global Emerging Regulatory Sea Power in the Arctic Ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cassotta Pertoldi-Bianchi, Sandra; Hossain, Kamrul; Ren, Jingzheng


    The impact of climate change in the Arctic Ocean such as ice melting and ice retreat facilitates natural resources extraction. Arctic fossil fuel becomes the drivers of geopolitical changes in the Arctic Ocean. Climate change facilitates natural resource extractions and increases competition...... on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Arctic Council (AC) are taken into consideration under climate change effects, to assess how global legal frameworks and institutions can deal with China’s strategy in the Arctic Ocean. China’s is moving away from its role as “humble power” to one of “informal...... imperialistic” resulting in substantial impact on the Arctic and Antartic dynamism. Due to ice-melting, an easy access to natural resources, China’s Arctic strategy in the Arctic Ocean has reinforced its military martitime strategy and has profoundly changed its maritime military doctrine shifting from regional...

  12. Enzymology under global change: organic nitrogen turnover in alpine and sub-Arctic soils

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weedon, J.T.; Aerts, R.; Kowalchuk, G.A.; van Bodegom, P.M.


    Understanding global change impacts on the globally important carbon storage in alpine, Arctic and sub-Arctic soils requires knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the balance between plant primary productivity and decomposition. Given that nitrogen availability limits both processes, understanding

  13. Enzymology under global change: organic nitrogen turnover in alpine and sub-Arctic soils.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weedon, J.T.; Aerts, R.; Kowalchuk, G.A.; van Bodegom, P.M.


    Understanding global change impacts on the globally important carbon storage in alpine, Arctic and sub-Arctic soils requires knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the balance between plant primary productivity and decomposition. Given that nitrogen availability limits both processes, understanding

  14. Contemporary floristic changes in the Karkonosze Mts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Fabiszewski


    Full Text Available The paper presents the transformations of species composition in the main plant communities of the Karkonosze Mts. subalpine and alpine belts during the last 35 years. The investigations of floristic changes were performed in associations: Carici (rigidae-Nardetum, Carici-Festucetum supinae, Crepidi-Calamagrostietum villose and Empetro-Vaccinietum. Signalized are also some vegetation transformations in the remaining belts. The progressing floristic degradation of plant communities in the subalpine and alpine belts consists in: (a expansion of grasses, (b decline of rare vascular plants, and (c elimination of terricolous bryophytes and lichens. In spruce forest belts declining are species connected with old-growth spruce forests like: Listera cordata and Moneses uniflora. The changes of plant communities of low mountain swards (Nardetalia caused by cessation of pasture and mowing in the cause of retreat of many rare plants, like e.g., Arnica montana. The main cause of the still lasting in the Karkonosze Mts. community transformations is the changes in soil environment connected with anthropogenic nitrogen fertilization. The large inflow of mineral nitrogen from the atmosphere (1138 mg/m2 sum for vegetation season is the reason of accelerated rate of decomposition of organic matter and intensified nitrification. The high content of nitrates in soil (5 times higher than in the Tatra Mts. swards is the reason of expansion of graminoids, mainly Deschampsia flexuosa, Calamagrostis villosa and Carex bigelowii subsp. rigida. The overfertilisation of habitats causes the retreat of rare high mountain vascular plants and the decline of terricolous bryophytes and lichens.

  15. Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Changes and Impacts (Invited) (United States)

    Nghiem, S. V.


    The extent of springtime Arctic perennial sea ice, important to preconditioning summer melt and to polar sunrise photochemistry, continues its precipitous reduction in the last decade marked by a record low in 2012, as the Bromine, Ozone, and Mercury Experiment (BROMEX) was conducted around Barrow, Alaska, to investigate impacts of sea ice reduction on photochemical processes, transport, and distribution in the polar environment. In spring 2013, there was further loss of perennial sea ice, as it was not observed in the ocean region adjacent to the Alaskan north coast, where there was a stretch of perennial sea ice in 2012 in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea. In contrast to the rapid and extensive loss of sea ice in the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has a trend of a slight increase in the past three decades. Given the significant variability in time and in space together with uncertainties in satellite observations, the increasing trend of Antarctic sea ice may arguably be considered as having a low confidence level; however, there was no overall reduction of Antarctic sea ice extent anywhere close to the decreasing rate of Arctic sea ice. There exist publications presenting various factors driving changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. After a short review of these published factors, new observations and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and geological mechanisms contributed to different behaviors of sea ice changes in the Arctic and Antarctic are presented. The contribution from of hydrologic factors may provide a linkage to and enhance thermal impacts from lower latitudes. While geological factors may affect the sensitivity of sea ice response to climate change, these factors can serve as the long-term memory in the system that should be exploited to improve future projections or predictions of sea ice changes. Furthermore, similarities and differences in chemical impacts of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes are discussed. Understanding sea ice changes and

  16. Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS): Integrated perspectives. (United States)

    Crépin, Anne-Sophie; Karcher, Michael; Gascard, Jean-Claude


    This introduction to the special issue presents an overview of the wide range of results produced during the European Union project Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS). This project assessed the main impacts of climate change on Arctic Ocean's geophysical variables and how these impending changes could be expected to impact directly and indirectly on socio-economic activities like transportation, marine sea food production and resource exploitation. Related governance issues were examined. These results were used to develop several management tools that can live on beyond ACCESS. In this article, we synthesize most of the project results in the form of tentative responses to questions raised during the project. By doing so, we put the findings of the project in a broader perspective and introduce the contributions made in the different articles published in this special issue.

  17. Changing Arctic ecosystems: resilience of caribou to climatic shifts in the Arctic (United States)

    Gustine, David D.; Adams, Layne G.; Whalen, Mary E.; Pearce, John M.


    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative strives to inform key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information and forecasts for current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. Over the past 5 years, a focal area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the North Slope of Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past 60 years, yet the rate of change has been varied across the North Slope, leading scientists to question the future response and resilience of wildlife populations, such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus), that rely on tundra habitats for forage. Future changes in temperature and precipitation to coastal wet sedge and upland low shrub tundra are expected, with unknown consequences for caribou that rely on these plant communities for food. Understanding how future environmental change may affect caribou migration, nutrition, and reproduction is a focal question being addressed by the USGS CAE research. Results will inform management agencies in Alaska and people that rely on caribou for food.

  18. Long-term bird study records Arctic climate change (United States)

    Zielinski, Sarah

    Alaska's summer of 2005 was the second warmest on record there, with a record retreat of arctic pack ice. As Alaskan temperatures gradually increase, artic birds, such as the black guillemots of Cooper Island, near Barrow, Alaska, are experiencing drastic habitat changes. Though these small black and white birds—the subjects of a long-term study of climate change—fared better this year than they have in the recent past (due to local cool conditions), they are nonetheless struggling to adapt as their artic island summer home becomes subarctic.George Divokyan ornithologist at the Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, discovered the Cooper Island colony of guillemots in the early 1970s and has spent every summer since 1975 there studying these birds. He presented his latest research during a 3 November talk in Washington, D.C.

  19. The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, James D; McDowell, Graham; Jones, Julie


    The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts. (letter)

  20. Past Changes in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems, Climate and UV Radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaghan, Terry V. [Abisko Scientific Research Station, Abisko (Sweden); Bjoern, Lars Olof [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Cell and Organism Biology; Chernov, Yuri [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). A.N. Severtsov Inst. of Evolutionary Morphology and Animal Ecology] (and others)


    At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13 deg C colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18,000 and 11,400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the 'Little Ice Age' spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150,000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10,000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, as it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic

  1. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system (United States)

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,


    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  2. Heritage and Change in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    as stakeholders, developers and wardens of resources. In times characterized by such change and ambivalence, heritage offers itself as a means by which a community can meaningfully relate to both past and future; but its use (and the inclusion and exclusion of particular identity-building elements) must also...

  3.  Climate Change and the Arctic Discourses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørst, Lill Rastad


      It is now a fact that global warming and climate change are on the public agenda and will remain there for a long time to come. The Arctic has been portrayed as a thermometer for the world mostly because it is very vulnerable to the climatic changes and the subsequent consequences. Inuit are used...... as an example and included as the first witnesses to ‘the big catastrophe'. My hypothesis is that the newly emerging climate debate can establish an unexpected and unique political platform where Inuit can get influence on local as well as global questions. My investigating focus concerning these matters...

  4. Arctic Vegetation under Climate Change – Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound Emissions and Leaf Anatomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schollert, Michelle

    common arctic plant species, illustrating the great importance of vegetation composition for determining ecosystem BVOC emissions. Additionally, this thesis assesses the BVOC emission responses in common arctic plant species to effects of climate change: warming, shading and snow addition. Against...... treatment effects on BVOC emissions. Furthermore, the anatomy of arctic plants seems to respond differently to warming than species at lower latitudes. The results in this thesis demonstrate the complexity of the effects of climate change on BVOC emissions and leaf anatomy of arctic plant species...... emissions from the arctic region are assumed to be low, but data from the region is lacking. BVOC emissions are furthermore expected to change drastically due to the rapidly proceeding climate change in the Arctic, which can provide a feedback to climate warming of unknown direction and magnitude. BVOC...

  5. Detecting Arctic Climate Change Using Koeppen Climate Classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, M. [Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (United States); Overland, J.E. [NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, Washington (United States)


    Ecological impacts of the recent warming trend in the Arctic are already noted as changes in tree line and a decrease in tundra area with the replacement of ground cover by shrubs in northern Alaska and several locations in northern Eurasia. The potential impact of vegetation changes to feedbacks on the atmospheric climate system is substantial because of the large land area impacted and the multi-year persistence of the vegetation cover. Satellite NDVI estimates beginning in 1981 and the Koeppen climate classification, which relates surface types to monthly mean air temperatures from 1901 onward, track these changes on an Arctic-wide basis. Temperature fields from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and CRU analysis serve as proxy for vegetation cover over the century. A downward trend in the coverage of tundra group for the first 40 yr of the twentieth century was followed by two increases during 1940s and early 1960s, and then a rapid decrease in the last 20 yr. The decrease of tundra group in the 1920-40 period was localized, mostly over Scandinavia; whereas the decrease since 1990 is primarily pan-Arctic, but largest in NW Canada, and eastern and coastal Siberia. The decrease in inferred tundra coverage from 1980 to 2000 was 1.4 x 106 km{sup 2}, or about a 20% reduction in tundra area based on the CRU analyses. This rate of decrease is confirmed by the NDVI data. These tundra group changes in the last 20 yr are accompanied by increase in the area of both the boreal and temperate groups. During the tundra group decrease in the first half of the century boreal group area also decreased while temperate group area increased. The calculated minimum coverage of tundra group from both the Koeppen classification and NDVI indicates that the impact of warming on the spatial coverage of the tundra group in the 1990s is the strongest in the century, and will have multi-decadal consequences for the Arctic.

  6. Postmodern messiahs: the changing saviours of contemporary popular culture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Sjö


    Full Text Available The messiah myth is alive and well in the modern world. Contemporary science fiction film has taken the myth to heart and given us an endless stream of larger than life heroes. The heroes of the present are, however, not exactly the same as the heroes of the past. A changing world demands new things of its saviours. Using a textual and narrative analysis based on insights gained from feminist film theory and cultural studies, this article looks closely at the messiah theme in science fiction films and TV series from the last three decades. The study explores the changes that have occurred in relation to images of the body, the attitudes and personalities of modern heroes, gender, questions of power and ideas of the transcendent. The article then discusses what these changes both between newer and older heroes and between contemporary heroes and the traditional messiah story might say about religion and spirituality in the modern world. Finally the article explores the question of why the messiah myth still finds an audience today.

  7. Propaganda, News, or Education: Reporting Changing Arctic Sea Ice Conditions (United States)

    Leitzell, K.; Meier, W.


    The National Snow and Ice Data Center provides information on Arctic sea ice conditions via the Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis (ASINA) website. As a result of this effort to explain climatic data to the general public, we have attracted a huge amount of attention from our readers. Sometimes, people write to thank us for the information and the explanation. But people also write to accuse us of bias, slant, or outright lies in our posts. The topic of climate change is a minefield full of political animosity, and even the most carefully written verbiage can appear incomplete or biased to some audiences. Our strategy has been to report the data and stick to the areas in which our scientists are experts. The ASINA team carefully edits our posts to make sure that all statements are based on the science and not on opinion. Often this means using some technical language that may be difficult for a layperson to understand. However, we provide concise definitions for technical terms where appropriate. The hope is that by communicating the data clearly, without an agenda, we can let the science speak for itself. Is this an effective strategy to communicate clearly about the changing climate? Or does it downplay the seriousness of climate change? By writing at a more advanced level and avoiding oversimplification, we require our readers to work harder. But we may also maintain the attention of skeptics, convincing them to read further and become more knowledgeable about the topic.

  8. Comparative responses of phenology and reproductive development to simulated environmental change in sub-arctic and high arctic plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wookey, P A; Welker, J M; Callaghan, T V [Inst. of Terrestrial Ecology, Merlewood Research Station, Grange-over-Sands, Cumbria (United Kingdom); Parsons, A N; Potter, J A; Lee, J A; Press, M C [Dept. of Environmental Biology, Univ. of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom)


    The effects of temperature, precipitation and nutrient perturbations, and their interactions, are being assessed on two contrasting arctic ecosystems to simulate impacts of climate change. One, a high arctic polar semi-desert community, is characterized by a sparse, low and aggregated vegetation cover where plant proliferation is by seedlings, whereas the other, a sub-arctic dwarf shrub health, is characterized by a complete, vegetation cover of erect, clonal dwarf shrubs which spread vegetatively. The developmental processes of seed production were shown to be highly sensitive, even within one growing season to specific environmental perturbations which differed between sites. At the polar semi-desert site, there was a striking effect of the temperature enhancement treatments on phenology and seed-setting of Dryas octopetala ssp. octopetala, with almost no seed-setting occurring in plots experiencing ambient temperatures. By contrast, there were no significant effects of temperature enhancement alone on fruit production of Empetrum hermaphroditum at the sub-Arctic dwarf shrub heath site, although fruit production was significantly influenced by the application of nutrients and/or water. The response of dominant high arctic dwarf shrub to increased temperature suggests that any climate warming may stimulate seed-set. This could be particularly important in the high Arctic where colonization can proceed in areas dominated by bare ground and where genetic recombination may be needed to generate tolerance to predicted changes of great magnitude. In the sub-Arctic, however the closed vegetation is dominated by clonally-proliferating species. Plant fitness will increase here in response to any increased vegetative growth resulting from higher nutrient availability in warmer organic soils. (ua) (59 refs.)

  9. Patterns and processes influencing helminth parasites of Arctic coastal communities during climate change. (United States)

    Galaktionov, K V


    This review analyses the scarce available data on biodiversity and transmission of helminths in Arctic coastal ecosystems and the potential impact of climate changes on them. The focus is on the helminths of seabirds, dominant parasites in coastal ecosystems. Their fauna in the Arctic is depauperate because of the lack of suitable intermediate hosts and unfavourable conditions for species with free-living larvae. An increasing proportion of crustaceans in the diet of Arctic seabirds would result in a higher infection intensity of cestodes and acanthocephalans, and may also promote the infection of seabirds with non-specific helminths. In this way, the latter may find favourable conditions for colonization of new hosts. Climate changes may alter the composition of the helminth fauna, their infection levels in hosts and ways of transmission in coastal communities. Immigration of boreal invertebrates and fish into Arctic seas may allow the circulation of helminths using them as intermediate hosts. Changing migratory routes of animals would alter the distribution of their parasites, facilitating, in particular, their trans-Arctic transfer. Prolongation of the seasonal 'transmission window' may increase the parasitic load on host populations. Changes in Arctic marine food webs would have an overriding influence on the helminths' circulation. This process may be influenced by the predicted decreased of salinity in Arctic seas, increased storm activity, coastal erosion, ocean acidification, decline of Arctic ice, etc. Greater parasitological research efforts are needed to assess the influence of factors related to Arctic climate change on the transmission of helminths.

  10. Climate change and natural hazards in the Arctic (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.; Eichelberger, L. P.


    Climate change is motivating much of the science research in the Arctic. Natural hazards, which have always been with us and can be influenced by climate, also pose a serious threat to sustainability of Arctic communities, the Native cultures they support, and the health and wellbeing of their residents. These are themes of the US Chairship of the Arctic Council. For example, repetitive floods, often associated with spring ice jams, are a particularly severe problem for river communities. People live near rivers because access to food, water and river transportation support an indigenous subsistence lifestyle. Some settlement sites for Indigenous Peoples were mandated by distant authorities without regard to natural hazards, in Alaska no less than in other countries. Thus bad policy of the past casts a long shadow into the future. Remote communities are subject to multiple challenges, including natural hazards, access to education, and limited job opportunities. These intersect to reproduce structural vulnerability and have over time created a need for substantial support from government. In the past 40 years, the themes of "sustainability" and "self reliance" have become prominent strategies for governance at both state and local levels. Communities now struggle to demonstrate their sustainability while grappling with natural hazards and chronic poverty. In the extreme, the shifting of responsibility to resource-poor communities can be called "structural violence". Accepting the status quo can mean living without sanitation and reliable water supply, leading to the high observed rates of disease not normally encountered in developed countries. Many of the efforts to address climate change and natural hazards are complementary: monitoring the environment; forecasting extreme events; and community-based participatory research and planning. Natural disaster response is complementary to the Arctic Council's Search and Rescue (SAR) initiative, differing in that those

  11. Inuit Perspectives on Arctic Environmental Change': A Traveling Exhibition (United States)

    Sheffield, E. M.; Hakala, J. S.; Gearheard, S.


    The Inuit of Nunavut, Canada, have an intimate relationship with their surroundings. As a culture that relies on knowledge of sea ice, snow, and weather conditions for success in hunting, fishing, and healthy wellbeing, Inuit have observed and studied environmental patterns for generations. An ongoing study into their traditional knowledge and their observations of environmental change is being conducted by researcher Dr. Shari Gearheard, who has worked with Inuit communities in Nunavut for over a decade. The results of the research have been published in scientific journals, and to communicate the results to a broader audience, Dr. Gearheard designed an interactive CD-ROM displaying photographs, maps, and interview videos of Inuit Elders' perspectives on the changes they have witnessed. Receiving immediate popularity since its release in 2004, copies of `When the Weather is Uggianaqtuq: Inuit Observations of Environmental Change' have been distributed worldwide, to indigenous peoples, social science and climate change researchers, teachers, students, and the general public. To further disseminate the information contained on the CD-ROM, the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the Museum of Natural History, both of the University of Colorado, are partnering to create an exhibition which will open at the Museum during the International Polar Year in April 2008. The exhibit, tentatively titled `Inuit Perspectives on Arctic Environmental Change,' will feature photographs, graphics, and text in both English and Inuktitut describing environmental change in the North. The goals are to make the information and interpretation contained on the CD-ROM available and more accessible to a broad audience and to raise awareness about Arctic climate change and the important contribution of Inuit knowledge. Following exhibition at the Museum, the exhibit will travel throughout the United States, Alaska, and Nunavut, through a network of museums, schools, libraries, tribal

  12. Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society (CLICHE) (United States)

    Weckström, J.; Korhola, A.; Väliranta, M.; Seppä, H.; Luoto, M.; Tuittila, E.-S.; Leppäranta, M.; Kahilainen, K.; Saarinen, J.; Heikkinen, H.


    The predicted climate warming has raised many questions and concerns about its impacts on the environment and society. As a respond to the need of holistic studies comprising both of these areas, The Academy of Finland launched The Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (FICCA 2011-2014) in spring 2010 with the main aim to focus on the interaction between the environment and society. Ultimately 11 national consortium projects were funded (total budget 12 million EUR). Here we shortly present the main objectives of the largest consortium project "Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society" (CLICHE). The CLICHE consortium comprises eight interrelated work packages (treeline, diversity, peatlands, snow, lakes, fish, tourism, and traditional livelihoods), each led by a prominent research group and a team leader. The research consortium has three main overall objectives: 1) Investigate, map and model the past, present and future climate change-induced changes in central ecosystems of the European Arctic with unprecedented precision 2) Deepen our understanding of the basic principles of ecosystem and social resilience and dynamics; identify key taxa, structures or processes that clearly indicate impending or realised global change through their loss, occurrence or behaviour, using analogues from the past (e.g. Holocene Thermal Maximum, Medieval Warm Period), experiments, observations and models 3) Develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the adverse effects of climate change on local communities, traditional livelihoods, fisheries, and tourism industry, and promote sustainable development of local community structures and enhance the quality of life of local human populations. As the project has started only recently no final results are available yet. However, the fieldwork as well as the co-operation between the research teams has thus far been very successful. Thus, the expectations for the final outcome of the project

  13. The effect of changing sea ice on the vulnerability of Arctic coasts


    K. R. Barnhart; I. Overeem; R. S. Anderson


    Shorefast sea ice prevents the interaction of the land and the ocean in the Arctic winter and influences this interaction in the summer by governing the fetch. In many parts of the Arctic the sea-ice-free season is increasing in duration, and the summertime sea ice extents are decreasing. Sea ice provides a first order control on the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to erosion, inundation, and damage to settlements and infrastructure. We ask how the changing sea ic...

  14. Modes of Arctic Ocean Change from GRACE, ICESat and the PIOMAS and ECCO2 Models of the Arctic Ocean (United States)

    Peralta Ferriz, C.; Morison, J. H.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Kwok, R.; Zhang, J.


    EOF analysis of month-to-month variations in GRACE derived Arctic Ocean bottom pressure (OBP) with trend and seasonal variation removed yield three dominant modes. The first mode is a basin wide variation in mass associated with high atmospheric pressure (SLP) over Scandinavia mainly in winter. The second mode is a shift of mass from the central Arctic Ocean to the Siberian shelves due to low pressure over the basins, associated with the Arctic Oscillation. The third mode is a shift in mass between the Eastern and Western Siberian shelves, related to strength of the Beaufort High mainly in summer, and to eastward alongshore winds on the Barents Sea in winter. The PIOMAS and ECCO2 modeled OBP show fair agreement with the form of these modes and provide context in terms of variations in sea surface height SSH. Comparing GRACE OBP from 2007 to 2011 with GRACE OBP from 2002 to 2006 reveals a rising trend over most of the Arctic Ocean but declines in the Kara Sea region and summer East Siberian Sea. ECCO2 bears a faint resemblance to the observed OBP change but appears to be biased negatively. In contrast, PIOMAS SSH and ECCO2 especially, show changes between the two periods that are muted but similar to ICESat dynamic ocean topography and GRACE-ICESat freshwater trends from 2005 through 2008 [Morison et al., 2012] with a rising DOT and freshening in the Beaufort Sea and a trough with decreased freshwater on the Russian side of the Arctic Ocean. Morison, J., R. Kwok, C. Peralta-Ferriz, M. Alkire, I. Rigor, R. Andersen, and M. Steele (2012), Changing Arctic Ocean freshwater pathways, Nature, 481(7379), 66-70.

  15. The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States (United States)

    Taylor, P. C.


    Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

  16. Marine distribution of arctic seabirds over six decades: changes and conservation applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wong, SNP; Johansen, Kasper Lambert; Lieske, DJ

    Climate change is causing rapid changes in Arctic marine ecosystems and understanding its impacts on wildlife is critical for conservation management, especially as the decline in sea ice leads to increased development and vessel traffic. The Arctic supports hundreds of millions of seabirds, which...... collected from 1988 to 2015 and covering a combined 185,000 linear km, we examined the marine distribution of seabirds in sub-arctic and Arctic waters between Canada and Greenland, an area covering over 5,000,000 km2. We developed a predictive model to investigate how ice cover and ocean processes influence...... the distribution of arctic seabirds in summer and autumn and identified existing areas of high density. Comparing these results to at-sea surveys conducted in the same waters from 1966 - 1987, we examined how seabird distribution has changed over the last six decades. Understanding how changes in the marine...

  17. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/41327697X; Mclennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A.; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V.


    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for

  18. A contemporary decennial global sample of changing agricultural field sizes (United States)

    White, E.; Roy, D. P.


    In the last several hundred years agriculture has caused significant human induced Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) with dramatic cropland expansion and a marked increase in agricultural productivity. The size of agricultural fields is a fundamental description of rural landscapes and provides an insight into the drivers of rural LCLUC. Increasing field sizes cause a subsequent decrease in the number of fields and therefore decreased landscape spatial complexity with impacts on biodiversity, habitat, soil erosion, plant-pollinator interactions, diffusion of disease pathogens and pests, and loss or degradation in buffers to nutrient, herbicide and pesticide flows. In this study, globally distributed locations with significant contemporary field size change were selected guided by a global map of agricultural yield and literature review and were selected to be representative of different driving forces of field size change (associated with technological innovation, socio-economic conditions, government policy, historic patterns of land cover land use, and environmental setting). Seasonal Landsat data acquired on a decadal basis (for 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010) were used to extract field boundaries and the temporal changes in field size quantified and their causes discussed.

  19. Human adaptation responses to a rapidly changing Arctic: A research context for building system resilience (United States)

    Chapin, T.; Brinkman, T. J.


    Although human behavior accounts for more uncertainty in future trajectories in climate change than do biophysical processes, most climate-change research fails to include human actions in research design and implementation. This is well-illustrated in the Arctic. At the global scale, arctic processes strongly influence the strength of biophysical feedbacks between global human emissions and the rate of climate warming. However, most human actions in the arctic have little effect on these feedbacks, so research can contribute most effectively to reduction in arctic warming through improved understanding of the strength of arctic-global biophysical feedbacks, as in NASA's ABoVE program, and its effective communication to policy makers and the public. In contrast, at the local to regional scale within the arctic, human actions may influence the ecological and societal consequences of arctic warming, so research benefits from active stakeholder engagement in research design and implementation. Human communities and other stakeholders (government and NGOs) respond heterogeneously to socioeconomic and environmental change, so research that documents the range of historical and current adaptive responses to change provides insights on the resilience (flexibility of future options) of social-ecological processes in the arctic. Alaskan communities have attempted a range of adaptive responses to coastal erosion (e.g., seasonal migration, protection in place, relocation), wildfire (fire suppression to use of fire to manage wildlife habitat or landscape heterogeneity), declining sea ice (e.g., new hunting technology, sea ice observations and predictions), and changes in wildlife and fish availability (e.g., switch to harvest of alternative species, harvest times, or harvest locations). Research that draws on both traditional and western knowledge facilitates adaptation and predictions of the likely societal consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Effective inclusion of

  20. Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maslowski, Wieslaw [Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States)


    This project aims to develop, apply and evaluate a regional Arctic System model (RASM) for enhanced decadal predictions. Its overarching goal is to advance understanding of the past and present states of arctic climate and to facilitate improvements in seasonal to decadal predictions. In particular, it will focus on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The project will also address modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change in a region of the Earth that is: (i) a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification and (ii) which is undergoing environmental transitions not seen in instrumental records. RASM will readily allow the addition of other earth system components, such as ecosystem or biochemistry models, thus allowing it to facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts. As such, RASM is expected to become a foundation for more complete Arctic System models and part of a model hierarchy important for improving climate modeling and predictions.

  1. Specificities of Spatial System Transformation and Strategies of the Russian Arctic Redevelopment under the Conditions of Climate Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Nikolaevich Leksin


    Full Text Available A bunch of papers has been published by foreign and Russian researchers on climate change impact on the environment and regional socioeconomic development. The bulk of them is focused on analyzing drivers and impact assessments for the Arctic region characterized by the most intensive climate change worldwide. The paper puts to the fore a nontrivial issue of considering the climate change impact factor within the methodology and practice of the strategic process of the Russian Arctic redevelopment. The issue above is complicated by the imperative of ranking of the salience of the climate change socioeconomic implications as priorities of the governance and public administration of the comprehensive development of the macro-region under consideration. The lack of the effective tools for consolidation of the needed resources further exacerbates it. The summary of the findings of the national and international researchers in the area of climate change impact on environment, settlements and economic activity in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF is introduced to substantiate the policy decisions made. We have specified the methodological issues related to peculiarities and role of the climate change factor plays in policy decisions within the context of contemporary knowledge on patterns of spatial systems transformation, their capabilities of selforganization and adaptation to externalities. The authors have revealed the general regularities and specificity of the AZRF transformation as a spatial system and the impact of climate change produced on this process. We have particularly emphasized the issues of adaptation to climate change of the AZRF indigenous population whose health and economic activities experience increased risks associated with high intensiveness of the climatic fluctuations. Recommendations for using scenario (variation approach to redesigning strategies and programs of AZRF development are substantiated

  2. Arctic Climate Change: A Tale of Two Cod Species (United States)

    Arctic cod play an important role in the Arctic trophic hierarchy as the consumer of primary productivity and a food source for many marine fish and mammals. Shifts in their distribution and abundance could have cascading affects in the marine environment. This paper investigates...

  3. Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.


    Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

  4. Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Advance Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change at Process Scales (United States)

    Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Brunke, M.; Cassano, J. J.; Clement Kinney, J. L.; Craig, A.; Duvivier, A.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Hamman, J.; Hughes, M.; Nijssen, B.; Zeng, X.


    The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic changes, which are some of the most coordinated changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth. They are exemplified by the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Global Climate and Global Earth System Models (GC/ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in the GC/ESMs remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that stem from a combination of coarse model resolution, inadequate parameterizations, unrepresented processes and a limited knowledge of physical and other real world interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the GC/ESM limitations in simulating observed seasonal to decadal variability and trends in the sea ice cover and climate. RASM is a high resolution, fully coupled, pan-Arctic climate model that uses the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. It uses the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP) configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12° as well as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models at 50 km resolution. All RASM components are coupled via the CESM flux coupler (CPL7) at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled earth system model, which due to the additional constraints from lateral boundary conditions and nudging within a regional model domain facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with GC/ESMs. In this talk, we will emphasize the utility of RASM to understand sensitivity to variable parameter space, importance of critical processes, coupled feedbacks and ultimately to reduce uncertainty in arctic climate change projections.

  5. Toward Process-resolving Synthesis and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change Using the Regional Arctic System Model (United States)

    Maslowski, W.


    The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) has been developed to better understand the operation of Arctic System at process scale and to improve prediction of its change at a spectrum of time scales. RASM is a pan-Arctic, fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere-land model with marine biogeochemistry extension to the ocean and sea ice models. The main goal of our research is to advance a system-level understanding of critical processes and feedbacks in the Arctic and their links with the Earth System. The secondary, an equally important objective, is to identify model needs for new or additional observations to better understand such processes and to help constrain models. Finally, RASM has been used to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook of the Sea Ice Prediction Network. Future RASM forecasts, are likely to include increased resolution for model components and ecosystem predictions. Such research is in direct support of the US environmental assessment and prediction needs, including those of the U.S. Navy, Department of Defense, and the recent IARPC Arctic Research Plan 2017-2021. In addition to an overview of RASM technical details, selected model results are presented from a hierarchy of climate models together with available observations in the region to better understand potential oceanic contributions to polar amplification. RASM simulations are analyzed to evaluate model skill in representing seasonal climatology as well as interannual and multi-decadal climate variability and predictions. Selected physical processes and resulting feedbacks are discussed to emphasize the need for fully coupled climate model simulations, high model resolution and sensitivity of simulated sea ice states to scale dependent model parameterizations controlling ice dynamics, thermodynamics and coupling with the atmosphere and ocean.

  6. Seasonal changes in the optical properties of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in large Arctic rivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walker, S.A.; Amon, R.M.; Stedmon, Colin

    Arctic rivers deliver over 10% of the annual global river discharge yet little is known about the seasonal fluctuations in the quantity and quality of terrigenous dissolved organic matter (tDOM). A good constraint on such fluctuations is paramount to understand the role that climate change may have...... on tDOM input to the Arctic Ocean. To understand such changes the optical properties of colored tDOM (tCDOM) were studied. Samples were collected over several seasonal cycles from the six largest Arctic Rivers as part of the PARTNERS project. This unique dataset is the first of its kind capturing...

  7. Arctic Sea Ice Trafficability - New Strategies for a Changing Icescape (United States)

    Dammann, Dyre Oliver

    Sea ice is an important part of the Arctic social-environmental system, in part because it provides a platform for human transportation and for marine flora and fauna that use the ice as a habitat. Sea ice loss projected for coming decades is expected to change ice conditions throughout the Arctic, but little is known about the nature and extent of anticipated changes and in particular potential implications for over-ice travel and ice use as a platform. This question has been addressed here through an extensive effort to link sea ice use and key geophysical properties of sea ice, drawing upon extensive field surveys around on-ice operations and local and Indigenous knowledge for the widely different ice uses and ice regimes of Utqiagvik, Kotzebue, and Nome, Alaska.. A set of nine parameters that constrain landfast sea ice use has been derived, including spatial extent, stability, and timing and persistence of landfast ice. This work lays the foundation for a framework to assess and monitor key ice-parameters relevant in the context of ice-use feasibility, safety, and efficiency, drawing on different remote-sensing techniques. The framework outlines the steps necessary to further evaluate relevant parameters in the context of user objectives and key stakeholder needs for a given ice regime and ice use scenario. I have utilized this framework in case studies for three different ice regimes, where I find uses to be constrained by ice thickness, roughness, and fracture potential and develop assessment strategies with accuracy at the relevant spatial scales. In response to the widely reported importance of high-confidence ice thickness measurements, I have developed a new strategy to estimate appropriate thickness compensation factors. Compensation factors have the potential to reduce risk of misrepresenting areas of thin ice when using point-based in-situ assessment methods along a particular route. This approach was tested on an ice road near Kotzebue, Alaska, where

  8. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change (United States)

    A.D. McGuire; L.G. Anderson; T.R. Christensen; S. Dallimore; L. Guo; D.J. Hayes; M. Heimann; T.D. Lorenson; R.W. Macdonald; N. Roulet


    The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a...

  9. Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other Arctic regions (United States)

    Hinzman, L.D.; Bettez, N.D.; Bolton, W.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Dyurgerov, M.B.; Fastie, C.L.; Griffith, B.; Hollister, R.D.; Hope, A.; Huntington, H.P.; Jensen, A.M.; Jia, G.J.; Jorgenson, T.; Kane, D.L.; Klein, D.R.; Kofinas, G.; Lynch, A.H.; Lloyd, A.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Nelson, Frederick E.; Oechel, W.C.; Osterkamp, T.E.; Racine, C.H.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Stone, R.S.; Stow, D.A.; Sturm, M.; Tweedie, C.E.; Vourlitis, G.L.; Walker, M.D.; Walker, D.A.; Webber, P.J.; Welker, J.M.; Winker, K.S.; Yoshikawa, K.


    The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling. ?? Springer 2005.

  10. Impacts of projected sea ice changes on trans-Arctic navigation (United States)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Smith, L. C.


    Reduced Arctic sea ice continues to be a palpable signal of global change. Record lows in September sea ice extent from 2007 - 2011 have fueled speculation that trans-Arctic navigation routes may become physically viable in the 21st century. General Circulation Models project a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer by mid-century; however, how reduced sea ice will realistically impact navigation is not well understood. Using the ATAM (Arctic Transportation Accessibility Model) we present simulations of 21st-century trans-Arctic voyages as a function of climatic (ice) conditions and vessel class. Simulations are based on sea ice projections for three climatic forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m^2) representing present-day and mid-century conditions, assuming Polar Class 6 (PC6) and open-water vessels (OW) with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Optimal least-cost routes (minimizing travel time while avoiding ice impassible to a given vessel class) between the North Atlantic and the Bering Strait were calculated for summer months of each time window. While Arctic navigation depends on other factors besides sea ice including economics, infrastructure, bathymetry, current, and weather, these projections should be useful for strategic planning by governments, regulatory and environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry to assess potential changes in the spatial and temporal ranges of Arctic marine operations.

  11. Boundary layer stability and Arctic climate change: a feedback study using EC-Earth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bintanja, R.; Linden, E.C. van der; Hazeleger, W. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands)


    Amplified Arctic warming is one of the key features of climate change. It is evident in observations as well as in climate model simulations. Usually referred to as Arctic amplification, it is generally recognized that the surface albedo feedback governs the response. However, a number of feedback mechanisms play a role in AA, of which those related to the prevalent near-surface inversion have received relatively little attention. Here we investigate the role of the near-surface thermal inversion, which is caused by radiative surface cooling in autumn and winter, on Arctic warming. We employ idealized climate change experiments using the climate model EC-Earth together with ERA-Interim reanalysis data to show that boundary-layer mixing governs the efficiency by which the surface warming signal is 'diluted' to higher levels. Reduced vertical mixing, as in the stably stratified inversion layer in Arctic winter, thus amplifies surface warming. Modelling results suggest that both shortwave - through the (seasonal) interaction with the sea ice feedback - and longwave feedbacks are affected by boundary-layer mixing, both in the Arctic and globally, with the effect on the shortwave feedback dominating. The amplifying effect will decrease, however, with climate warming because the surface inversion becomes progressively weaker. We estimate that the reduced Arctic inversion has slowed down global warming by about 5% over the past 2 decades, and we anticipate that it will continue to do so with ongoing Arctic warming. (orig.)

  12. Elevation Changes of Ice Caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (United States)

    Abdalati, W.; Krabill, W.; Frederick, E.; Manizade, S.; Martin, C.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Thomas, R.; Yungel, J.; Koerner, R.


    Precise repeat airborne laser surveys were conducted over the major ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago in the spring of 1995 and 2000 in order to measure elevation changes in the region. Our measurements reveal thinning at lower elevations (below 1600 m) on most of the ice caps and glaciers, but either very little change or thickening at higher elevations in the ice cap accumulation zones. Recent increases in precipitation in the area can account for the slight thickening where it was observed, but not for the thinning at lower elevations. For the northern ice caps on the Queen Elizabeth Islands, thinning was generally less than 0.5 m/yr , which is consistent with what would be expected from the warm temperature anomalies in the region for the 5-year period between surveys and appears to be a continuation of a trend that began in the mid 1980s. Further south, however, on the Barnes and Penny ice caps on Baffin Island, this thinning was much more pronounced at over 1 m/yr in the lower elevations. Here temperature anomalies were very small, and the thinning at low elevations far exceeds any associated enhanced ablation. The observations on Barnes, and perhaps Penny are consistent with the idea that the observed thinning is part of a much longer term deglaciation, as has been previously suggested for Barnes Ice Cap. Based on the regional relationships between elevation and elevation-change in our data, the 1995-2000 mass balance for the region is estimated to be 25 cu km/yr of ice, which corresponds to a sea level increase of 0.064 mm/ yr . This places it among the more significant sources of eustatic sea level rise, though not as substantial as Greenland ice sheet, Alaskan glaciers, or the Patagonian ice fields.

  13. Selected physical, biological and biogeochemical implications of a rapidly changing Arctic Marginal Ice Zone (United States)

    Barber, David G.; Hop, Haakon; Mundy, Christopher J.; Else, Brent; Dmitrenko, Igor A.; Tremblay, Jean-Eric; Ehn, Jens K.; Assmy, Philipp; Daase, Malin; Candlish, Lauren M.; Rysgaard, Søren


    The Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) of the Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly due to a warming Arctic climate with commensurate reductions in sea ice extent and thickness. This Pan-Arctic review summarizes the main changes in the Arctic ocean-sea ice-atmosphere (OSA) interface, with implications for primary- and secondary producers in the ice and the underlying water column. Changes in the Arctic MIZ were interpreted for the period 1979-2010, based on best-fit regressions for each month. Trends of increasingly open water were statistically significant for each month, with quadratic fit for August-November, illustrating particularly strong seasonal feedbacks in sea-ice formation and decay. Geographic interpretations of physical and biological changes were based on comparison of regions with significant changes in sea ice: (1) The Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean including the Canada Basin and the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas; (2) The Canadian Arctic Archipelago; (3) Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay; and (4) the Barents and Kara seas. Changes in ice conditions in the Barents sea/Kara sea region appear to be primarily forced by ocean heat fluxes during winter, whereas changes in the other sectors appear to be more summer-autumn related and primarily atmospherically forced. Effects of seasonal and regional changes in OSA-system with regard to increased open water were summarized for photosynthetically available radiation, nutrient delivery to the euphotic zone, primary production of ice algae and phytoplankton, ice-associated fauna and zooplankton, and gas exchange of CO2. Changes in the physical factors varied amongst regions, and showed direct effects on organisms linked to sea ice. Zooplankton species appear to be more flexible and likely able to adapt to variability in the onset of primary production. The major changes identified for the ice-associated ecosystem are with regard to production timing and abundance or biomass of ice flora and fauna, which are related to

  14. Contemporary Challenges and Changes: Principals' Leadership Practices in Malaysia (United States)

    Jones, Michelle; Adams, Donnie; Joo, Mabel Tan Hwee; Muniandy, Vasu; Perera, Corinne Jaqueline; Harris, Alma


    This article outlines the findings from a contemporary study of principals' leadership practices in Malaysia as part of the 7 System Leadership Study. Recent policy developments within Malaysia have increased principals' accountability and have underlined the importance of the role of the principals in transforming school performance and student…

  15. Impacts of northern climate changes on Arctic engineering practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esch, D.C.


    Potential impacts of climate changes on engineering design practices in the Arctic are discussed with reference to permafrost engineering aspects, hydrology, and coastal and sea ice processes. Permafrost generally remains thermally stable only when mean annual air temperature remains 2-4 degrees below zero and the original surface conditions remain unchanged. It has been demonstrated that a temperature rise of only 1-2 degrees is very critical. The many different climate change forecasts make it difficult to design structures in permafrost with definite levels of confidence over a project's lifetime (i.e. up to 50 years). Consequences of climate warming on transportation-related structures can be estimated to a certain degree by examining experience with natural permafrost surfaces affected by land clearing or with structures built in permafrost. Melting of permafrost will be accompanied by surface settlements, slumping of slopes and banks, and creation of thaw pits and ponds, with eventual distress to many surface structures such as pavements and foundations. Designing for a warmer climate is illustrated for the case of the Bethel Highway, the first in Alaska to be designed for a progressively warmer climate. Increased water flows both from ice melting and increased precipitation in a warmer climate will make forecasting of discharge levels in drainage basins a difficult task. Of great concern to engineers is the potential for increased erosion and sediment loadings in streams. In coastal engineering, the effects of rising sea levels, increased open-water areas, and more severe storms foreseen in a warmer climate will require heavier and more elevated shore protection. On the other hand, shipping and offshore operations will be made easier. 9 refs., 4 figs

  16. Biological response to climate change in the Arctic Ocean: The view from the past (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; Cronin, Matthew A.


    The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid climatic changes including higher ocean temperatures, reduced sea ice, glacier and Greenland Ice Sheet melting, greater marine productivity, and altered carbon cycling. Until recently, the relationship between climate and Arctic biological systems was poorly known, but this has changed substantially as advances in paleoclimatology, micropaleontology, vertebrate paleontology, and molecular genetics show that Arctic ecosystem history reflects global and regional climatic changes over all timescales and climate states (103–107 years). Arctic climatic extremes include 25°C hyperthermal periods during the Paleocene-Eocene (56–46 million years ago, Ma), Quaternary glacial periods when thick ice shelves and sea ice cover rendered the Arctic Ocean nearly uninhabitable, seasonally sea-ice-free interglacials and abrupt climate reversals. Climate-driven biological impacts included large changes in species diversity, primary productivity, species’ geographic range shifts into and out of the Arctic, community restructuring, and possible hybridization, but evidence is not sufficient to determine whether or when major episodes of extinction occurred.

  17. Changes in Arctic sea ice result in increasing light transmittance and absorption


    Nicolaus, Marcel; Katlein, Christian; Maslanik, J.; Hendricks, Stefan


    Arctic sea ice has declined and become thinner and younger (more seasonal) during the last decade. One consequence of this is that the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is changing. While the role of surface albedo has been studied intensively, it is still widely unknown how much light penetrates through sea ice into the upper ocean, affecting seaice mass balance, ecosystems, and geochemical processes. Here we present the first large-scale under-ice light measurem...

  18. Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research. (United States)

    Natalia, Kukarenko


    Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women's and men's well-being and health. To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The main purpose of this article is not to give a full review but to draw attention to the gaps in knowledge and challenges in the Arctic research trends on climate change, human health and gender. A broad literature search was undertaken using a variety of sources from natural, medical, social science and humanities. The focus was on the keywords. Despite the evidence provided by many researchers on differentiating effects of climate change on well-being and health of women and men, gender perspective remains of marginal interest in climate change, environmental and health studies. At the same time, social sciences and humanities, and gender studies in particular, show little interest towards climate change impacts on human health in the Arctic. As a result, we still observe the division of labour between disciplines, the disciplinary-bound pictures of human development in the Arctic and terminology confusion. Efforts to bring in a gender perspective in the Arctic research will be successful only when different disciplines would work together. Multidisciplinary research is a way to challenge academic/disciplinary homogeneity and their boundaries, to take advantage of the diversity of approaches and methods in production of new integrated knowledge. Cooperation and dialogue across disciplines will help to develop adequate indicators for monitoring human health and elaborating efficient policies and strategies to the benefit of both women and men in the Arctic. Global Health Action 2011. © 2011 Kukarenko

  19. Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, James D


    The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions-one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

  20. Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ford, James D [Department of Geography, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC, H3A 2K6 (Canada)], E-mail:


    The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions-one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

  1. Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parkinson, Alan J; Evengard, Birgitta; Semenza, Jan C


    The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may......., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses....

  2. Engaging Local Communities in Arctic Observing Networks: A Collaborative Shoreline Change Risk WebGIS for Alaska's Arctic Slope Region (United States)

    Brady, M.


    This study engaged local community stakeholders in Alaska's Arctic Slope Region to develop a web-based shoreline change risk geographic information system (WebGIS) in collaboration with the North Slope Borough and its residents. The value of the effort includes rich spatial documentation of local risks across the vast, remote, and rapidly changing shoreline, and identification of local manager information needs to direct WebGIS development. The study advances our understanding of shoreline change problems from the perspective of local Arctic communities beyond municipal impacts while building decision support. Over fifty local residents in three communities with collective coastal knowledge that extends across the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska and Arctic National Wildlife Refuge shared their perspectives on hard copy maps. Sixteen managers provided usability perceptions of a beta WebGIS with shoreline change susceptibility information summarized at relevant asset locations such as subsistence camps. The hard copy maps with 300 "problem places" were digitized for analysis, which revealed problems across the coastline, especially challenges to boating for subsistence hunting such as shoaling cutting off access and creating hazards. The usability workshop revealed specific information needs including the need to monitor impacts at decommissioned national defense radar sites repurposed by locals to centralize oil and gas activity. These results were analyzed using an Instructional Systems Design (ISD) framework consisting of front-end and formative WebGIS evaluation phases. The front-end evaluation is the local input on hard copy maps, which provided local verification of coastal risks. The formative evaluation is the usability workshop with managers, which informed WebGIS development while promoting user buy-in. In terms of product and process, the local knowledge and information needs collected are significant because they establish local engagement with the

  3. Biodiversity, Distributions and Adaptations of Arctic Species in the Context of Environmental Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaghan, Terry V. [Abisko Scientific Research Station, Abisko (Sweden); Bjoern, Lars Olof [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Cell and Organism Biology; Chernov, Yuri [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). A.N. Severtsov Inst. of Evolutionary Morphology and Animal Ecology] (and others)


    The individual of a species is the basic unit which responds to climate and UV-B changes, and it responds over a wide range of time scales. The diversity of animal, plant and microbial species appears to be low in the Arctic, and decreases from the boreal forests to the polar deserts of the extreme North but primitive species are particularly abundant. This latitudinal decline is associated with an increase in superdominant species that occupy a wide range of habitats. Climate warming is expected to reduce the abundance and restrict the ranges of such species and to affect species at their northern range boundaries more than in the South: some Arctic animal and plant specialists could face extinction. Species most likely to expand into tundra are boreal species that currently exist as outlier populations in the Arctic. Many plant species have characteristics that allow them to survive short snow-free growing seasons, low solar angles, permafrost and low soil temperatures, low nutrient availability and physical disturbance. Many of these characteristics are likely to limit species' responses to climate warming, but mainly because of poor competitive ability compared with potential immigrant species. Terrestrial Arctic animals possess many adaptations that enable them to persist under a wide range of temperatures in the Arctic. Many escape unfavorable weather and resource shortage by winter dormancy or by migration. The biotic environment of Arctic animal species is relatively simple with few enemies, competitors, diseases, parasites and available food resources. Terrestrial Arctic animals are likely to be most vulnerable to warmer and drier summers, climatic changes that interfere with migration routes and staging areas, altered snow conditions and freeze-thaw cycles in winter, climate-induced disruption of the seasonal timing of reproduction and development, and influx of new competitors, predators, parasites and diseases. Arctic microorganisms are also well

  4. Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robertson, William [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (United States)


    RASM is a multi-disciplinary project, which brings together researchers from six state universities, one military postgraduate school, and one DoE laboratory to address the core modeling objectives of the arctic research community articulated in the Arctic System Modeling report by Roberts et al. (2010b). This report advocates the construction of a regional downscaling tool to generate probabilistic decadal projections of Greenland ice sheet retreat, evolution of arctic sea ice cover, changes in land surface vegetation, and regional processes leading to arctic amplification. Unified coupled models such as RASM are ideal for this purpose because they simulate fine-scale physics, essential for the realistic representation of intra-annual variability, in addition to processes fundamental to long term climatic shifts (Hurrell et al. 2009). By using RASM with boundary conditions from a global model, we can generate many-member ensembles essential for understanding uncertainty in regional climate projections (Hawkins and Sutton 2009). This probabilistic approach is computationally prohibitive for high-resolution global models in the foreseeable future, and also for regional models interactively nested within global simulations. Yet it is fundamental for quantifying uncertainty in decadal forecasts to make them useful for decision makers (Doherty et al. 2009). For this reason, we have targeted development of ensemble generation techniques as a core project task (Task 4.5). Environmental impact assessment specialists need high-fidelity regional ensemble projections to improve the accuracy of their work (Challinor et al. 2009; Moss et al. 2010). This is especially true of the Arctic, where economic, social and national interests are rapidly reshaping the high north in step with regional climate change. During the next decade, considerable oil and gas discoveries are expected across many parts of the marine and terrestrial Arctic (Gautier et al. 2009), the economics of the

  5. Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress (United States)


    response like we did in the Gulf of Mexico—I sent 3,000 people down for Deepwater Horizon. You know how many hotel rooms are available in Barrow...played its cards close to the vest, remaining silent on the issue until the day of the decision. Secretary of State John Kerry is said to have...the Northern Sea route.248 United States The attendance by Secretaries of State Clinton and Kerry of the last two Arctic Council summits, as

  6. Behavioral Ecology of Narwhals in a Changing Arctic (United States)


    impacted by increasing anthropogenic activities in Baffin Bay (increasing shipping, future transit through the NW Passage, seismic exploration, increasing...whistles being missed). Second, we utlilized a custom made 16 channel vertical array (with a laptop and pre-amplifier inside an insulated considering ongoing and expected significant increases in anthropogenic sound (e.g., seismic exploration, shipping) in the Arctic. The

  7. Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress (United States)


    Representative for the Arctic,” Press Statement, John Kerry, Secretary of State, Washington, DC , July 16, 2014, accessed July 17, 2014, at http...Shared Opportunities, Challenges, and Responsibilities,” accessed September 29, 2015, at arc /uschair/index.htm...25, 2015, at arc /uschair/248957.htm. —Statement of Admiral Robert J. Papp, Jr., Special Representative for the

  8. Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress (United States)


    Arctic accidents and incidents in the past. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers , along with the state of Alaska, is studying the feasibility of a... aeronautical and maritime search and rescue for each party. For the United States , those agencies are the Coast Guard and the Department of Defense...purchased from Ukraine a research icebreaker it named the Xuelong, and has constructed a state -of-the- art polar capable research vessel, the Snow Dragon

  9. Relevance of hydro-climatic change projection and monitoring for assessment of water cycle changes in the Arctic. (United States)

    Bring, Arvid; Destouni, Georgia


    Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.

  10. Predicting Changes in Arctic Tundra Vegetation: Towards an Understanding of Plant Trait Uncertainty (United States)

    Euskirchen, E. S.; Serbin, S.; Carman, T.; Iversen, C. M.; Salmon, V.; Helene, G.; McGuire, A. D.


    Arctic tundra plant communities are currently undergoing unprecedented changes in both composition and distribution under a warming climate. Predicting how these dynamics may play out in the future is important since these vegetation shifts impact both biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes. More precise estimates of these future vegetation shifts is a key challenge due to both a scarcity of data with which to parameterize vegetation models, particularly in the Arctic, as well as a limited understanding of the importance of each of the model parameters and how they may vary over space and time. Here, we incorporate newly available field data from arctic Alaska into a dynamic vegetation model specifically developed to take into account a particularly wide array of plant species as well as the permafrost soils of the arctic tundra (the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with Dynamic Vegetation and Dynamic Organic Soil, Terrestrial Ecosystem Model; DVM-DOS-TEM). We integrate the model within the Predicative Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), an open-source integrated ecological bioinformatics toolbox that facilitates the flows of information into and out of process models and model-data integration. We use PEcAn to evaluate the plant functional traits that contribute most to model variability based on a sensitivity analysis. We perform this analysis for the dominant types of tundra in arctic Alaska, including heath, shrub, tussock and wet sedge tundra. The results from this analysis will help inform future data collection in arctic tundra and reduce model uncertainty, thereby improving our ability to simulate Arctic vegetation structure and function in response to global change.

  11. Climate-induced behavioral changes influence exposure of an Arctic apex predator to pathogens and contaminants (United States)

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) may serve as sentinels for pathogens and contaminants, providing insight into changing Arctic ecosystems and health risks to wildlife and humans. Recent changes in the availability of sea ice habitat have coincided with increased use of land by polar bears from the sout...

  12. One Health – a strategy for resilience in a changing arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce A. Ruscio


    Full Text Available The circumpolar north is uniquely vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. While international Arctic collaboration on health has enhanced partnerships and advanced the health of inhabitants, significant challenges lie ahead. One Health is an approach that considers the connections between the environment, plant, animal and human health. Understanding this is increasingly critical in assessing the impact of global climate change on the health of Arctic inhabitants. The effects of climate change are complex and difficult to predict with certainty. Health risks include changes in the distribution of infectious disease, expansion of zoonotic diseases and vectors, changing migration patterns, impacts on food security and changes in water availability and quality, among others. A regional network of diverse stakeholder and transdisciplinary specialists from circumpolar nations and Indigenous groups can advance the understanding of complex climate-driven health risks and provide community-based strategies for early identification, prevention and adaption of health risks in human, animals and environment. We propose a regional One Health approach for assessing interactions at the Arctic human–animal–environment interface to enhance the understanding of, and response to, the complexities of climate change on the health of the Arctic inhabitants.

  13. Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Semenov


    Full Text Available The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the results exhibit considerable spread. Here, we compare results from the two last generations of climate models, CMIP3 and CMIP5, with respect to total and regional Arctic sea ice change. Different characteristics of sea ice area (SIA in March and September have been analysed for the Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH temperature is investigated and dynamical links between SIA and some atmospheric variability modes are assessed.CMIP3 (SRES A1B and CMIP5 (RCP8.5 models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in CMIP5 ensemble, most noticeably in summer when compared to HadISST1 data. A better simulation of summer SIA in the Entire Arctic by CMIP5 models is accompanied by a slightly increased bias for winter season in comparison to CMIP3 ensemble. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a high uncertainty. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes indicating that a part of inter-ensemble SIA spread comes from different temperature sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. The results suggest that, in general, a sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in CMIP5 models. Arctic SIA interannual variability in the end of the 20th century is on average well simulated by both ensembles. To the end of the 21st century, September

  14. Detecting change in seabird distributions at sea in arctic and sub-arctic waters over six decades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjerdrum, Carina; Wong, Sarah; Johansen, Kasper Lambert

    predictive models to investigate how ice cover and ocean processes influence the distribution thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia), northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis), dovekie (Alle alle), and black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) in summer and autumn between Canada and Greenland. We used the PIROP data......In the western North Atlantic and eastern Arctic, data on the distribution and abundance of seabirds at sea have been collected by the Canadian Wildlife Service from two main survey programs using ships of opportunity. The first, PIROP (Programme intégré de recherches sur les oiseaux pélagiques...... to examine how the distribution of these four species has changed over the last six decades. We discuss the results in relation to ocean climate variability, but also the challenges that exist when comparisons span such long time periods, including monitoring programs with changing priorities, differences...

  15. Climate Change Impacts on Environmental and Human Exposure to Mercury in the Arctic (United States)

    Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Rautio, Arja


    This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure. PMID:25837201

  16. Climate change impacts on environmental and human exposure to mercury in the arctic. (United States)

    Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G; Rautio, Arja


    This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure.

  17. Changes in cold tolerance due to a 14-day stay in the Canadian Arctic (United States)

    Livingstone, S. D.; Romet, T.; Keefe, A. A.; Nolan, R. W.


    Responses to cold exposure tests both locally and of the whole body were examined in subjects who stayed in the Arctic (average maximum and minimum temperatures -11 and -21° C respectively) for 14 days of skiing and sleeping in tents. These changes were compared to responses in subjects living working in Ottawa, Canada (average max. and min. temperatures -5 and -11° C respectively). The tests were done before the stay in the Arctic (Pre), immediately after the return (Post 1) and approximately 32 days after the return (Post 2). For the whole-body cold exposure each subject, wearing only shorts and lying on a rope mesh cot, was exposed to an ambient temperature of 10° C. There was no consistent response in the changes of metabolic or body temperature to this exposure in either of groups and, in addition, the changes over time were variable. Cold induced vasodilatation (CIVD) was determined by measuring temperature changes in the middle finger of the nondominant hand upon immersion in ice water for 30 min. CIVD was depressed after the Arctic exposure whilst during the Post 2 testing, although variable, did not return to the Pre values; the responses of the control group were similar. These results indicate that normal seasonal changes may be as important in adaptation as a stay in the Arctic. Caution is advised in the separation of seasonal effects when examining the changes in adaptation after exposure to a cold environment.

  18. Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress (United States)


    monitored on an ongoing basis.” 237 Canada’s stated priorities for its chairmanship are intended to benefit the 4 million people of the north through...Arctic, and ordered the development by 2014 of a strategic command in the region. However, as noted above, in order to reap the economic benefits, June 15, 2016; Gerard O’Dwyer, “9.8% Budget Hike Set for Norwegian Armed Forces,” Defense News, October 9, 2015; Lydia Tomkiw

  19. A New Perspective on Changing Arctic Marine Ecosystems: Panarchy Adaptive Cycles in Pan-Arctic Spatial and Temporal Scales (United States)

    Wiese, F. K.; Huntington, H. P.; Carmack, E.; Wassmann, P. F. J.; Leu, E. S.; Gradinger, R.


    Changes in the physical/biological interactions in the Arctic are occurring across a variety of spatial and temporal scales and may be mitigated or strengthened based on varying rates of evolutionary adaptation. A novel way to view these interactions and their social relevance is through the systems theory perspective of "Panarchy" proposed by Gunderson and Holling. Panarchy is an interdisciplinary approach in which structures, scales and linkages of complex-adaptive systems, including those of nature (e.g. ocean), humans (e.g. economics), and combined social-ecological systems (e.g. institutions that govern natural resource use), are mapped across multiple space and time scales in continual and interactive adaptive cycles of growth, accumulation, restructuring and renewal. In complex-adaptive systems the dynamics at a given scale are generally dominated by a small number of key internal variables that are forced by one or more external variables. The stability of such a system is characterized by its resilience, i.e. its capacity to absorb disturbance and re-organize while undergoing change, so as to retain essentially similar function, structure, identity and feedbacks. It is in the capacity of a system to cope with pressures and adversities such as exploitation, warming, governance restrictions, competition, etc. that resilience embraces human and natural systems as complex entities continually adapting through cycles of change. In this paper we explore processes at four linked spatial domains in the Arctic Ocean and link it to ecosystem resilience and re-organization characteristics. From this we derive a series of hypotheses concerning the biological responses to future physical changes and suggest ways how Panarchy theory can be applied to observational strategies to help detect early signs of environmental shifts affecting marine system services and functions. We close by discussing possible implications of the Panarchy framework for policy and governance.

  20. The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holland, Marika M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Serreze, Mark C.; Stroeve, Julienne [University of Colorado, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States)


    Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to differences in the surface albedo simulation. Over the twenty-first century, all models simulate a decrease in ice volume resulting from increased annual net melt (melt minus growth), partially compensated by reduced transport to lower latitudes. Despite this general agreement, the models vary considerably regarding the magnitude of ice volume loss and the relative roles of changing melt and growth in driving it. Projected changes in sea ice mass budgets depend in part on the initial (mid twentieth century) ice conditions; models with thicker initial ice generally exhibit larger volume losses. Pointing to the importance of evolving surface albedo and cloud properties, inter-model scatter in changing net ice melt is significantly related to changes in downwelling longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation. These factors, along with the simulated mean and spatial distribution of ice thickness, contribute to a large inter-model scatter in the projected onset of seasonally ice-free conditions. (orig.)

  1. Decadal Climate Change in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, A Representative Area of the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minghu Ding


    Full Text Available In recent decades, global warming hiatus/slowdown has attracted considerable attention and has been strongly debated. Many studies suggested that the Arctic is undergoing rapid warming and significantly contributes to a continual global warming trend rather than a hiatus. In this study, we evaluated the climate changes of Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, a representative location of the northern North Atlantic sector of the Arctic, based on observational records from 1975–2014. The results showed that the annual warming rate was four times higher than the global mean (+0.76 °C·decade−1 and was also much greater than Arctic average. Additionally, the warming trend of Ny-Ålesund started to slow down since 2005–2006, and our estimates showed that there is a 8–9 years-lagged, but significant, correlation between records of Ny-Ålesund and global HadCRUT4 datasets. This finding indicates that the Arctic was likely experiencing a hiatus pattern, which just appeared later than the low-mid latitudes due to transport processes of atmospheric circulations and ocean currents, heat storage effect of cryospheric components, multidecadal variability of Arctic cyclone activities, etc. This case study provides a new perspective on the global warming hiatus/slowdown debate.

  2. Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions (United States)

    Lara, Mark J.; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; Martin, Philip; McGuire, A. David


    Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km²) using the Landsat archive (1999–2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.

  3. Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, van der Henk-Jan; Heijmans, M.M.P.D.; Huissteden, van J.; Pullens, J.W.M.; Berendse, F.


    Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated

  4. Changes in Ocean Circulation with an Ice-Free Arctic: Reconstructing Early Holocene Arctic Ocean Circulation Using Geochemical Signals from Individual Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral) Shells (United States)

    Livsey, C.; Spero, H. J.; Kozdon, R.


    The impacts of sea ice decrease and consequent hydrologic changes in the Arctic Ocean will be experienced globally as ocean and atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, though it is not evident to what extent. Understanding the structure of the Arctic water column during the early/mid Holocene sea ice minimum ( 6-10 kya), a post-glacial analogue of a seasonally ice-free Arctic, will help us to predict what the changes we can expect as the Earth warms over the next century. Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral; Nps) is a species of planktonic foraminifera that dominates assemblages in the polar oceans. This species grows its chambers (ontogenetic calcite) in the surface waters and subsequently descends through the water column to below the mixed layer where it quickly adds a thick crust of calcite (Kohfeld et al., 1996). Therefore, geochemical signals from both the surface waters and sub-mixed layer depths are captured within single Nps shells. We were able to target ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), therefore capturing signals from both the ontogenetic and crust calcite in single Nps shells. This data was combined with laser ablation- inductively coupled mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) Mg/Ca profiles of trace metals through the two layers of calcite of the same shells, to determine the thermal structure of the water column. Combining δ18O, temperature, and salinity gradients from locations across the Arctic basin allow us to reconstruct the hydrography of the early Holocene Arctic sea ice minimum. These results will be compared with modern Arctic water column characteristics in order to develop a conceptual model of Arctic Ocean oceanographic change due to global warming. Kohfeld, K.E., Fairbanks, R.G., Smith, S.L., Walsh, I.D., 1996. Neogloboquadrina pachyderma(sinistral coiling) as paleoceanographic tracers in polar oceans: Evidence from northeast water polynya plankton tows, sediment traps, and surface sediments. Paleoceanography 11, 679-699.

  5. Ethics, Collaboration, and Presentation Methods for Local and Traditional Knowledge for Understanding Arctic Change (United States)

    Parsons, M. A.; Gearheard, S.; McNeave, C.


    Local and traditional knowledge (LTK) provides rich information about the Arctic environment at spatial and temporal scales that scientific knowledge often does not have access to (e.g. localized observations of fine-scale ecological change potentially from many different communities, or local sea ice and conditions prior to 1950s ice charts and 1970s satellite records). Community-based observations and monitoring are an opportunity for Arctic residents to provide ‘frontline’ observations and measurements that are an early warning system for Arctic change. The Exchange for Local Observations and Knowledge of the Arctic (ELOKA) was established in response to the growing number of community-based and community-oriented research and observation projects in the Arctic. ELOKA provides data management and user support to facilitate the collection, preservation, exchange, and use of local observations and knowledge. Managing these data presents unique ethical challenges in terms of appropriate use of rare human knowledge and ensuring that knowledge is not lost from the local communities and not exploited in ways antithetical to community culture and desires. Local Arctic residents must be engaged as true collaborative partners while respecting their perspectives, which may vary substantially from a western science perspective. At the same time, we seek to derive scientific meaning from the local knowledge that can be used in conjunction with quantitative science data. This creates new challenges in terms of data presentation, knowledge representations, and basic issues of metadata. This presentation reviews these challenges, some initial approaches to addressing them, and overall lessons learned and future directions.

  6. Does temporal variation of mercury levels in Arctic seabirds reflect changes in global environmental contamination, or a modification of Arctic marine food web functioning?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fort, Jérôme; Grémillet, David; Traisnel, Gwendoline; Amélineau, Françoise; Bustamante, Paco


    Studying long-term trends of contaminants in Arctic biota is essential to better understand impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on the exposure of sensitive species and marine ecosystems. We concurrently measured temporal changes (2006–2014) in mercury (Hg) contamination of little auks (Alle alle; the most abundant Arctic seabird) and in their major zooplankton prey species (Calanoid copepods, Themisto libellula, Gammarus spp.). We found an increasing contamination of the food-chain in East Greenland during summer over the last decade. More specifically, bird contamination (determined by body feather analyses) has increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Conversely, bird exposure to Hg during winter in the northwest Atlantic (determined by head feather analyses) decreased over the study period (at a rate of 1.5% per year), although winter concentrations remained consistently higher than during summer. By combining mercury levels measured in birds and zooplankton to isotopic analyses, our results demonstrate that inter-annual variations of Hg levels in little auks reflect changes in food-chain contamination, rather than a reorganization of the food web and a modification of seabird trophic ecology. They therefore underline the value of little auks, and Arctic seabirds in general, as bio-indicators of long-term changes in environmental contamination. - Highlights: • We examined temporal trends of Hg in Arctic seabirds and major zooplankton species. • We investigated the role of underlying ecological drivers in seabird contamination. • Hg contamination of the East Greenland marine food web increased over the last decade. • Hg levels in Arctic seabirds reflect changes in the food-chain contamination. • Little auks are bio-indicators of long-term changes in environmental contamination. - Temporal increase of seabird exposure to Hg reflects changes in Arctic environmental contamination.

  7. Sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean gas hydrate to climate changes in the period of 1948-2015 (United States)

    Malakhova, Valentina V.; Golubeva, Elena N.; Iakshina, Dina F.


    The objective of the present study is to analyze the interactions between a methane hydrates stability zone and the ocean temperature variations and to define the hydrate sensitivity to the contemporary warming in the Arctic Ocean. To obtain the spatial-temporary variability of the ocean bottom temperature we employ the ICMMG regional Arctic-North Atlantic ocean model that has been developed in the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics. With the ice-ocean model the Arctic bottom water temperatures were analyzed. The resulting warming ocean bottom water is spatially inhomogeneous, with a strong impact by the Atlantic inflow on shallow regions of 200-500 m depth. Results of the mathematical modeling of the dynamics of methane hydrate stability zone in the Arctic Ocean sediment are reported. We find that the reduction of the methane hydrate stability zone occurs in the Arctic Ocean between 250 and 400 m water depths within the upper 100 m of sediment in the area influenced by the Atlantic inflow. We have identified the areas of the Arctic Ocean where an increase in methane release is probable to occur at the present time.

  8. Building Partnerships and Research Collaborations to Address the Impacts of Arctic Change: The North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3) (United States)

    Polk, J.; North, L. A.; Strenecky, B.


    Changes in Arctic warming influence the various atmospheric and oceanic patterns that drive Caribbean and mid-latitude climate events, including extreme events like drought, tornadoes, and flooding in Kentucky and the surrounding region. Recently, the establishment of the North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3) project at Western Kentucky University (WKU) in partnership with the University of Akureyri (UNAK), Iceland Arctic Cooperation Network (IACN), and Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) provides a foundation from which to engage students in applied research from the local to global levels and more clearly understand the many tenets of climate change impacts in the Arctic within both a global and local community context. The NAC3 project encompasses many facets, including joint international courses, student internships, economic development, service learning, and applied research. In its first phase, the project has generated myriad outcomes and opportunities for bridging STEM disciplines with other fields to holistically and collaboratively address specific human-environmental issues falling under the broad umbrella of climate change. WKU and UNAK students desire interaction and exposure to other cultures and regions that are threatened by climate change and Iceland presents a unique opportunity to study influences such as oceanic processes, island economies, sustainable harvest of fisheries, and Arctic influences on climate change. The project aims to develop a model to bring partners together to conduct applied research on the complex subject of global environmental change, particularly in the Arctic, while simultaneously focusing on changing how we learn, develop community, and engage internationally to understand the impacts and find solutions.

  9. Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait (United States)

    Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.


    Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

  10. The Changes of Poetic Forms in the Contemporary Era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mehdi Torabikhah Jahromi


    Full Text Available Abstract This study examines the form of poems after Mashrouteh (constitutional revolution of Iran and explains the literary-semantic function after having a brief look at the poetry in 40s and 50s. This essay aims to answer whether poesy gone through a lot of innovations and changes during years or the change and transition in its form and semantic has taken place gradually. The study looks possible answers whether there has been many innovations and transitions or a gradual change rarely in spite of the general tendency that poets seek innovation in different ways during the history of Persian poetry.

  11. Factors affecting projected Arctic surface shortwave heating and albedo change in coupled climate models. (United States)

    Holland, Marika M; Landrum, Laura


    We use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model to quantify simulated changes in the twentieth and twenty-first century Arctic surface shortwave heating associated with changing incoming solar radiation and changing ice conditions. For increases in shortwave absorption associated with albedo reductions, the relative influence of changing sea ice surface properties and changing sea ice areal coverage is assessed. Changes in the surface sea ice properties are associated with an earlier melt season onset, a longer snow-free season and enhanced surface ponding. Because many of these changes occur during peak solar insolation, they have a considerable influence on Arctic surface shortwave heating that is comparable to the influence of ice area loss in the early twenty-first century. As ice area loss continues through the twenty-first century, it overwhelms the influence of changes in the sea ice surface state, and is responsible for a majority of the net shortwave increases by the mid-twenty-first century. A comparison with the Arctic surface albedo and shortwave heating in CMIP5 models indicates a large spread in projected twenty-first century change. This is in part related to different ice loss rates among the models and different representations of the late twentieth century ice albedo and associated sea ice surface state. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  12. Human-polar bear interactions in a changing Arctic: Existing and emerging concerns (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.; Simac, Kristin; Breck, Stewart; York, Geoff; Wilder, James


    The behavior and sociality of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been shaped by evolved preferences for sea ice habitat and preying on marine mammals. However, human behavior is causing changes to the Arctic marine ecosystem through the influence of greenhouse gas emissions that drive long-term change in ecosystem processes and via the presence of in situ stressors associated with increasing human activities. These changes are making it more difficult for polar bears to reliably use their traditional habitats and maintain fitness. Here, we provide an overview of how human activities in the Arctic are likely to change a polar bear’s behavior and to influence their resilience to environmental change. Developing a more thorough understanding of polar bear behavior and their capacity for flexibility in response to anthropogenic disturbances and subsequent mitigations may lead to successful near-term management interventions.

  13. On the Arctic Ocean ice thickness response to changes in the external forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stranne, Christian; Bjoerk, Goeran [University of Gothenburg, Department of Earth Sciences, Box 460, Goeteborg (Sweden)


    Submarine and satellite observations show that the Arctic Ocean ice cover has undergone a large thickness reduction and a decrease in the areal extent during the last decades. Here the response of the Arctic Ocean ice cover to changes in the poleward atmospheric energy transport, F{sub wall}, is investigated using coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean column models. Two models with highly different complexity are used in order to illustrate the importance of different internal processes and the results highlight the dramatic effects of the negative ice thickness - ice volume export feedback and the positive surface albedo feedback. The steady state ice thickness as a function of F{sub wall} is determined for various model setups and defines what we call ice thickness response curves. When a variable surface albedo and snow precipitation is included, a complex response curve appears with two distinct regimes: a perennial ice cover regime with a fairly linear response and a less responsive seasonal ice cover regime. The two regimes are separated by a steep transition associated with surface albedo feedback. The associated hysteresis is however small, indicating that the Arctic climate system does not have an irreversible tipping point behaviour related to the surface albedo feedback. The results are discussed in the context of the recent reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover. A new mechanism related to regional and temporal variations of the ice divergence within the Arctic Ocean is presented as an explanation for the observed regional variation of the ice thickness reduction. Our results further suggest that the recent reduction in areal ice extent and loss of multiyear ice is related to the albedo dependent transition between seasonal and perennial ice i.e. large areas of the Arctic Ocean that has previously been dominated by multiyear ice might have been pushed below a critical mean ice thickness, corresponding to the above mentioned transition, and into a state dominated

  14. Assessing Political Dynamics in Contemporary Malaysia: Implications for Democratic Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surain Subramaniam


    Full Text Available This article examines political dynamics in Malaysia and assesses the prospects for change in the direction of greater political liberalization. It focuses on the 12th General Election of 2008 and its implications for opportunities and challenges for liberal democratic change in Malaysia. It discusses the role of the internet-based new media in shaping an emerging public sphere, and some factors affecting the changing role of non-Malay voters in the political process. This article argues that democratization in Malaysia is already occurring, albeit at a gradual pace; it is being pushed by the new political forces of civil society actors, newly empowered opposition parties, and the internet-based media. The boundaries of this emerging democratic space is simultaneously being shaped and contested by the political competition between status-quo and reformist forces in this society. Some institutional changes have expanded the parameters of democratic space, although the entrenched dominant institutions of the ruling regime continue to wield sufficient amounts of institutional capacity to subvert any consolidation of these democratic changes for now.

  15. Climate change, future Arctic Sea ice, and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets. (United States)

    Petrick, Sebastian; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Hoog, Sven; Growitsch, Christian; Schwind, Hannah; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Rehdanz, Katrin


    A significant share of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.

  16. Arctic sea level change over the past 2 decades from GRACE gradiometry and multi-mission satellite altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, O. B.; Stenseng, L.; Sørensen, C. S.


    The Arctic is still an extremely challenging region for theuse of remote sensing for sea level studies. Despite the availability of 20 years of altimetry, only very limited sea level observations exist in the interior of the Arctic Ocean. However, with Cryosat-2 SAR altimetry the situation...... gradiometer observations from the ESA GOCE mission, we are now able to derive a mean dynamic topography of the Arctic Ocean with unprecedented accuracy to constrain the Arctic Ocean circulation controlling sea level variations in the Arctic. We present both a new estimation of the mean ocean circulation...... and new estimates of large scale sea level changes based on satellite data and perform an estimation of the fresh waterstorage increase over the last decade using temporal gravity changes from the GRACE satellite....

  17. Phenological Shifts in Animals Under Contemporary Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, M.E.; Roitberg, Bernard D.


    One of the best documented impacts of climate change has been on the seasonal timing, or phenology, of species. There are clear shifts in all taxonomic groups in terrestrial, aquatic, and marine environments. There is, however, ample variation in the rate at which species shift in response to warmer

  18. Risky changes: transformation of ownership in contemporary Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feofanov, K.


    Transformation of economic and political course in the last decade in Russia has evoked big changes in the main agent of techno-genic risk, companies concerned with production, storage, recycling, and transportation of chemical, biological, energetic, etc. products. The basic aspect of the changes is the 'denationalizing' transformation of ownership, from state to shareholder or private, providing instability both during and, mainly, after the process of transformation, in cases of 'refreezing' the inadequate 'new order of things'. The transformation is hindered by compressed and indefinite terms of transformation, worsening of financial level of companies due to their 'transitional' status, struggle for power within and outside the companies initiated by provocative and dangerous actions by different fighting groups and forces in the firms, factories, and industry branches. The paper is written on the basis of in-depth expert interviews and clarifies the peculiarities of the risky transformation. (author)

  19. The effects of climate changes on soil methane oxidation in a dry Arctic tundra (United States)

    D'Imperio, Ludovica


    The effects of climate changes on soil methane oxidation in a dry Arctic tundra. Ludovica D'Imperio1, Anders Michelsen1, Christian J. Jørgensen1, Bo Elberling1 1Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Denmark At Northern latitudes climatic changes are predicted to be most pronounced resulting in increasing active layer depth and changes in growing season length, vegetation cover and nutrient cycling. As a consequence of increased temperature, large stocks of carbon stored in the permafrost-affected soils could become available for microbial transformations and under anoxic conditions result in increasing methane production affecting net methane (CH4) budget. Arctic tundra soils also serves as an important sink of atmospheric CH4 by microbial oxidation under aerobic conditions. While several process studies have documented the mechanisms behind both production and emissions of CH4 in arctic ecosystems, an important knowledge gap exists with respect to the in situ dynamics of microbial-driven uptake of CH4 in arctic dry lands which may be enhanced as a consequence of global warming and thereby counterbalancing CH4 emissions from Arctic wetlands. In-situ methane measurements were made in a dry Arctic tundra in Disko Island, Western Greenland, during the summer 2013 to assess the role of seasonal and inter-annual variations in temperatures and snow cover. The experimental set-up included snow fences installed in 2012, allowed investigations of the emissions of GHGs from soil under increased winter snow deposition and ambient field conditions. The soil fluxes of CH4 and CO2 were measured using closed chambers in manipulated plots with increased summer temperatures and shrub removal with or without increased winter precipitation. At the control plots, the averaged seasonal CH4 oxidation rates ranged between -0.05 mg CH4 m-2 hr-1 (end of August) and -0.32 mg CH4 m-2 hr-1 (end of June). In the

  20. Understanding Pan-Arctic Tundra Vegetation Change Through Long-term Remotely Sensed Data (United States)

    Bhatt, U.; Walker, D. A.; Bieniek, P.; Raynolds, M. K.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J. E.; Tucker, C. J.


    The goal of this paper is to present an analysis of the seasonality of tundra vegetation variability and change using long-term remotely sensed data as well as ground based measurements and reanalyses. An increase of Pan-Arctic tundra vegetation greenness has been documented using the remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Coherent variability between NDVI, springtime coastal sea ice (passive microwave) and land surface temperatures (AVHRR) has also been established. Satellite based snow and cloud cover data sets are being incorporated into this analysis. The Arctic tundra is divided into domains based on Treshnikov divisions that are modified based on floristic provinces. There is notable heterogeneity in Pan-Arctic vegetation and climate trends, which necessitates a regional analysis. This study uses remotely sensed weekly 25-km sea ice concentration, weekly surface temperature, and bi-weekly NDVI from 1982 to 2010. The GIMMS NDVI3g data has been corrected for biases during the spring and fall, with special focus on the Arctic. Trends of Maximum NDVI (MaxNDVI), Time Integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI), Summer Warmth Index (SWI, sum of degree months above freezing during May-August), and open water area are calculated for the Pan Arctic. Remotely sensed snow data trends suggest varying patterns throughout the Arctic and may in part explain the heterogeneous MaxNDVI trends. Standard climate data (station, reanalysis, and model data) and ground observations are used in the analysis to provide additional support for hypothesized mechanisms. Overall, we find that trends over the 30-year record are changing as evidenced by the following examples from recent years. The sea ice decline has increased in Eurasia and slowed in North America. The weekly AVHRR landsurface temperatures reveal that there has been summer cooling over Eurasia and that the warming over North America has slowed. The MaxNDVI rates of change have diverged between N. America and Eurasia

  1. Climate Change and Arctic Issues in the Marine and Environmental Science Curriculum at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy (United States)

    Vlietstra, L.; McConnell, M. C.; Bergondo, D. L.; Mrakovcich, K. L.; Futch, V.; Stutzman, B. S.; Fleischmann, C. M.


    As global climate change becomes more evident, demand will likely increase for experts with a detailed understanding of the scientific basis of climate change, the ocean's role in the earth-atmosphere system, and forecasted impacts, especially in Arctic regions where effects may be most pronounced. As a result, programs in marine and environmental sciences are uniquely poised to prepare graduates for the formidable challenges posed by changing climates. Here we present research evaluating the prevalence and themes of courses focusing on anthropogenic climate change in 125 Marine Science and Environmental Science undergraduate programs at 86 institutions in the United States. These results, in addition to the increasing role of the Coast Guard in the Arctic, led to the development of two new courses in the curriculum. Climate Change Science, a one-credit seminar, includes several student-centered activities supporting key learning objectives. Polar Oceanography, a three-credit course, incorporates a major outreach component to Coast Guard units and members of the scientific community. Given the importance of climate change in Arctic regions in particular, we also propose six essential "Arctic Literacy Principles" around which courses or individual lesson plans may be organized. We show how these principles are incorporated into an additional new three-credit course, Model Arctic Council, which prepares students to participate in a week-long simulation exercise of Arctic Council meetings, held in Fairbanks, Alaska. Students examine the history and mission of the Arctic Council and explore some of the issues on which the council has deliberated. Special attention is paid to priorities of the current U.S. chairmanship of the Arctic Council which include climate change impacts on, and stewardship of, the Arctic Ocean.

  2. Approaching a Postcolonial Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars


    This article explores different postcolonially configured approaches to the Arctic. It begins by considering the Arctic as a region, an entity, and how the customary political science informed approaches are delimited by their focus on understanding the Arctic as a region at the service...... of the contemporary neoliberal order. It moves on to explore how different parts of the Arctic are inscribed in a number of sub-Arctic nation-state binds, focusing mainly on Canada and Denmark. The article argues that the postcolonial can be understood as a prism or a methodology that asks pivotal questions to all...... approaches to the Arctic. Yet the postcolonial itself is characterised by limitations, not least in this context its lack of interest in the Arctic, and its bias towards conventional forms of representation in art. The article points to the need to develop a more integrated critique of colonial and neo...

  3. Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities. (United States)

    Frainer, André; Primicerio, Raul; Kortsch, Susanne; Aune, Magnus; Dolgov, Andrey V; Fossheim, Maria; Aschan, Michaela M


    Climate change triggers poleward shifts in species distribution leading to changes in biogeography. In the marine environment, fish respond quickly to warming, causing community-wide reorganizations, which result in profound changes in ecosystem functioning. Functional biogeography provides a framework to address how ecosystem functioning may be affected by climate change over large spatial scales. However, there are few studies on functional biogeography in the marine environment, and none in the Arctic, where climate-driven changes are most rapid and extensive. We investigated the impact of climate warming on the functional biogeography of the Barents Sea, which is characterized by a sharp zoogeographic divide separating boreal from Arctic species. Our unique dataset covered 52 fish species, 15 functional traits, and 3,660 stations sampled during the recent warming period. We found that the functional traits characterizing Arctic fish communities, mainly composed of small-sized bottom-dwelling benthivores, are being rapidly replaced by traits of incoming boreal species, particularly the larger, longer lived, and more piscivorous species. The changes in functional traits detected in the Arctic can be predicted based on the characteristics of species expected to undergo quick poleward shifts in response to warming. These are the large, generalist, motile species, such as cod and haddock. We show how functional biogeography can provide important insights into the relationship between species composition, diversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental drivers. This represents invaluable knowledge in a period when communities and ecosystems experience rapid climate-driven changes across biogeographical regions. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  4. Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect. (United States)

    Swann, Abigail L; Fung, Inez Y; Levis, Samuel; Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C


    Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the next 100 years and increases in temperature will likely lead to changes in the distribution and makeup of the Arctic biosphere. A largely deciduous ecosystem has been suggested as a possible landscape for future Arctic vegetation and is seen in paleo-records of warm times in the past. Here we use a global climate model with an interactive terrestrial biosphere to investigate the effects of adding deciduous trees on bare ground at high northern latitudes. We find that the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance from enhanced transpiration (associated with the expanded forest cover) is up to 1.5 times larger than the forcing due to albedo change from the forest. Furthermore, the greenhouse warming by additional water vapor melts sea-ice and triggers a positive feedback through changes in ocean albedo and evaporation. Land surface albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high-latitudes, but our findings suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration of water vapor and feedbacks from the ocean and sea-ice.

  5. Repeat synoptic sampling reveals drivers of change in carbon and nutrient chemistry of Arctic catchments (United States)

    Zarnetske, J. P.; Abbott, B. W.; Bowden, W. B.; Iannucci, F.; Griffin, N.; Parker, S.; Pinay, G.; Aanderud, Z.


    Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrients, and other solute concentrations are increasing in rivers across the Arctic. Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain these trends: 1. distributed, top-down permafrost degradation, and 2. discrete, point-source delivery of DOC and nutrients from permafrost collapse features (thermokarst). While long-term monitoring at a single station cannot discriminate between these mechanisms, synoptic sampling of multiple points in the stream network could reveal the spatial structure of solute sources. In this context, we sampled carbon and nutrient chemistry three times over two years in 119 subcatchments of three distinct Arctic catchments (North Slope, Alaska). Subcatchments ranged from 0.1 to 80 km2, and included three distinct types of Arctic landscapes - mountainous, tundra, and glacial-lake catchments. We quantified the stability of spatial patterns in synoptic water chemistry and analyzed high-frequency time series from the catchment outlets across the thaw season to identify source areas for DOC, nutrients, and major ions. We found that variance in solute concentrations between subcatchments collapsed at spatial scales between 1 to 20 km2, indicating a continuum of diffuse- and point-source dynamics, depending on solute and catchment characteristics (e.g. reactivity, topography, vegetation, surficial geology). Spatially-distributed mass balance revealed conservative transport of DOC and nitrogen, and indicates there may be strong in-stream retention of phosphorus, providing a network-scale confirmation of previous reach-scale studies in these Arctic catchments. Overall, we present new approaches to analyzing synoptic data for change detection and quantification of ecohydrological mechanisms in ecosystems in the Arctic and beyond.

  6. Marine Mammals and Climate Change in the Pacific Arctic: Impacts & Resilience (United States)

    Moore, S. E.


    Extreme reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness have become a hallmark of climate change, but impacts to the marine ecosystem are poorly understood. As top predators, marine mammals must adapt to biological responses to physical forcing and thereby become sentinels to ecosystem variability and reorganization. Recent sea ice retreats have influenced the ecology of marine mammals in the Pacific Arctic sector. Walruses now often haul out by the thousands along the NW Alaska coast in late summer, and reports of harbor porpoise, humpback, fin and minke whales in the Chukchi Sea demonstrate that these temperate species routinely occur there. In 2010, satellite tagged bowhead whales from Atlantic and Pacific populations met in the Northwest Passage, an overlap thought precluded by sea ice since the Holocene. To forage effectively, baleen whales must target dense patches of zooplankton and small fishes. In the Pacific Arctic, bowhead and gray whales appear to be responding to enhanced prey availability delivered both by new production and advection pathways. Two programs, the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) and the Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR), include tracking of marine mammal and prey species' responses to ecosystem shifts associated with sea ice loss. Both programs provide an integrated-ecosystem baseline in support of the development of a web-based Marine Mammal Health Map, envisioned as a component of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). An overarching goal is to identify ecological patterns for marine mammals in the 'new' Arctic, as a foundation for integrative research, local response and adaptive management.

  7. Does Reality Matter? Social and Science Bases of Public Beliefs about Arctic Change (United States)

    Walker, D. A.; Schaefer, K. M.; Schaeffer, K. P.; Schaefer, K. M.; Hamilton, L.


    Surveys of public perceptions about trends in Arctic sea ice find that over two-thirds are aware of the multi-decade decrease. This awareness differs sharply across ideological and educational subgroups, however. It does not appear to shift in response to scientific and media discussion following a September with unusually low (2012) or somewhat higher (2013) sea ice extent. Other perceptions about Arctic change, such as impacts on mid-latitude weather, follow similar patterns with sharp ideological difference and limited response to external events, including science reports. On the other hand, public accuracy on basic factual questions that do not by themselves imply directional change (such as location of the North Pole) may be very low, and among some subgroups accurate knowledge shows an oddly negative correlation with self-confidence about understanding of climate change. These results from 13 surveys over 2011-2015 suggest that biased assimilation filters the acceptance of information about Arctic change, with implications for science communication.

  8. Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists. (United States)

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V; Aschan, Michaela


    Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning. © 2015 The Authors.

  9. The Impact of Climate Change on an Archaeological Site in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollesen, Jørgen; Matthiesen, H.; Elberling, Bo


    Climate change may accelerate the degradation of archaeological sites in the Arctic and lead to a loss of important historical information. This study assesses the current preservation conditions and the processes controlling the physical and chemical stability of the Qajaa kitchen midden......, thermal and hydrological erosion and oxygen exposure may lead to substantial loss of archaeological evidence before the end of the 21st century....

  10. Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic (United States)

    Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.


    Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

  11. Annual changes in Arctic fjord environment and modern benthic foraminiferal fauna: Evidence from Kongsfjorden, Svalbard (United States)

    Jernas, Patrycja; Klitgaard-Kristensen, Dorthe; Husum, Katrine; Koç, Nalan; Tverberg, Vigdis; Loubere, Paul; Prins, Maarten; Dijkstra, Noortje; Gluchowska, Marta


    The relationships between modern Arctic benthic foraminifera and their ecological controls, along with their sensitivity to rapid environmental changes, is still poorly understood. This study examines how modern benthic foraminifera respond to annual environmental changes in the glaciated Arctic fjord Kongsfjorden, western Svalbard. Large environmental gradients due to the inflow of warm and saline Atlantic Water and the influence of tidewater glaciers characterise the fjord hydrography. A transect of six multi-corer stations, from the inner to the outer fjord, was sampled in the late summers of 2005 to 2008 to study the distribution of living (rose Bengal stained) benthic foraminifera. Physical properties of the water masses were measured concurrently. In general, nearly the entire Kongsfjorden region was dominated by ubiquitous N. labradorica foraminiferal assemblage that successfully exploited the local food resources and thrived particularly well in the presence of Atlantic-derived Transformed Atlantic Water (TAW). Further, the annual investigation revealed that Kongsfjorden underwent large interannual hydrological changes during the studied years related to variable inflow of warm and saline Atlantic Water. This led to a strong fauna variability particularly at the two marginal sites: the glacially influenced inner fjord and marine influenced shelf region. We also observed significant species shift from the 'cold' to 'warm' years and an expansion of widespread and sub-arctic to boreal species into the fjord.

  12. Habitat-specific effects of climate change on a low-mobility Arctic spider species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bowden, Joseph James; Hansen, Rikke Reisner; Olsen, Kent


    Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems are heterogeneous habitat mosaics of varying vegetation types that are differentially affected by climate change. Arctic plant communities, for example, are changing faster in moist habitats than in dry habitats and abiotic changes like snowmelt vary locally among...... was significantly related to the timing of snowmelt and differed significantly between the sexes and habitats with the spiders in the mesic habitat showing a stronger temporal response to later snowmelt. Juvenile/ female ratios also differed significantly between habitats; as did the overall abundance...

  13. Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torkjel M. Sandanger


    Full Text Available In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed specifically considering their exposure and sensitivity to long range transported contaminants.Considering that the different parts of pregnancy are particularly sensitive time periods for the effects of environmental exposure, this review focuses on the impacts on maternal and newborn health. Environmental stressors known to affects human health and how these will change with the predicted climate change are addressed. Air pollution and food security are crucial issues for the pregnant population in a changing climate, especially indoor climate and food security in Arctic areas.The total number of environmental factors is today responsible for a large number of the global deaths, especially in young children. Climate change will most likely lead to an increase in this number. Exposure to the different environmental stressors especially air pollution will in most parts of the world increase with climate change, even though some areas might face lower exposure. Populations at risk today are believed to be most heavily affected. As for the persistent organic pollutants a warming climate leads to a remobilisation and a possible increase in food chain exposure in the Arctic and thus increased risk for Arctic populations. This is especially the case for mercury. The perspective for the next generations will be closely connected to the expected temperature changes; changes in housing conditions; changes in exposure patterns; predicted increased exposure to Mercury

  14. The Arctic Vegetation Type Change retrieved from Spaceborne Observations and its Influence on the Simulation of Permafrost Thawing (United States)

    Kim, Y.; Wang, Z.


    The vegetation types change in Arctic has been studied using 10 years of MODIS land cover product (MCD12Q1). The shrub expansion is observed in Alaska and Northeast Asia, while shrub fraction decreases in North Canada and Southwest Arctic Eurasia. The total Arctic shrub fraction increases 3% in 10 years. The tundra decreases where the shrub expands, and thrives where the shrub retreats. In order to isolate the influence of the vegetation dynamic on the permafrost thawing, the Arctic terrestrial ecosystem in recent decades will be simulated using the Community Land Model (CLM) with and without the vegetation type changes. The energy and carbon exchange on the land surface will also be simulated and compared. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI, PN17081) and the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800).

  15. Regional shoreline change and coastal erosion hazards in Arctic Alaska (United States)

    Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Erikson, Li H.; Harden, E. Lynne; Wallendorf, Louise


    Historical shoreline positions along the mainland Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska were digitized and analyzed to determine the long-term rate of change. Average shoreline change rates and ranges from 1947 to the mid-2000s were determined every 50 meters between Barrow and Demarcation Point, at the U.S.-Canadian border. Results show that shoreline change rates are highly variable along the coast, with an average regional shoreline change rate of-2.0 m/yr and localized rates of up to -19 m/yr. The highest erosion rates were observed at headlands, points, and associated with breached thermokarst lakes. Areas of accretion were limited, and generally associated with spit extension and minor beach accretion. In general, erosion rates increase from east to west, with overall higher rates east of Harrison Bay.


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutowski, William J.


    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  17. Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory. (United States)

    Yu, Qin; Epstein, Howard; Engstrom, Ryan; Walker, Donald


    Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general 'greening' trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change (United States)

    Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.


    In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.

  19. Tracking and unpacking rapid Arctic change: Indicators of community health and sustainability in northern Alaska and links to cryospheric change (United States)

    Eicken, H.; Sam, J. M.; Mueller-stoffels, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Fresco, N. L.


    Tracking and responding to rapid Arctic change benefits from time series of indicator variables that describe the state of the system and can inform anticipatory action. A key challenge is to identify and monitor sets of indicators that capture relevant variability, trends, and transitions in social-environmental systems. We present findings from participatory scenarios focused on community health and sustainability in northern Alaska. In a series of workshops in 2015 and 2016 (Kotzebue workshop photo shown below), over 50 experts, mostly local, identified determinants of community health and sustainability by 2040 in the Northwest Arctic and North Slope Boroughs, Alaska. Drawing on further research, an initial set of factors and uncertainties was refined and prioritized into a total of 20 key drivers, ranging from governance issues to socio-economic and environmental factors. The research team then developed sets of future projections that describe plausible outcomes by mid-century for each of these drivers. A plausibility and consistency analysis of all pairwise combinations of these projections (following Mueller-Stoffels and Eicken, In: North by 2020 - Perspectives on Alaska's Changing Social-Ecological Systems, University of Alaska Press, 2011) resulted in the identification of robust scenarios. The latter were further reviewed by workshop participants, and a set of indicator variables, including indicators of relevant cryospheric change, was identified to help track trajectories towards plausible future states. Publically accessible recorded data only exist for a subset of the more than 70 indicators, reaching back a few years to several decades. For several indicators, the sampling rate or time series length are insufficient for tracking of and response to change. A core set of variables has been identified that meets indicator requirements and can serve as a tool for Alaska Arctic communities in adapting to or mitigating rapid change affecting community

  20. Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grémillet, David; Welcker, Jorg; Karnovsky, Nina J.


    Climate models predict a multi-degree warming of the North Atlantic in the 21st century. A research priority is to understand the impact of such changes upon marine organisms. With 40-80 million individuals, planktivorous little auks (Alle alle) are an essential component of pelagic food webs...... in this region that are potentially highly susceptible to climatic effects. Using an integrative study of their behaviour, physiology and fitness at three study sites, we evaluated the impact of ocean warming on little auks across the Greenland Sea in 2005-2007. Contrary to our hypothesis, the birds responded...... to a wide range of sea surface temperatures via plasticity of their foraging behaviour, allowing them to maintain their fitness levels unchanged. Predicted effects of climate change are significantly attenuated by such plasticity, confounding attempts to forecast future impacts of climate change by envelope...

  1. The Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, H.; Meltofte, H.; Rysgaard, S.; Rasch, M.; Jonasson, S.; Christensen, T.R.; Friborg, T.; Soegaard, H.; Pedersen, S.A.


    Global climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern. Research has already documented pronounced changes, and models predict that increases in temperature from anthropogenic influences could be considerably higher than the global average. The impacts of climate change on Arctic ecosystems are complex and difficult to predict because of the many interactions within ecosystem, and between many concurrently changing environmental variables. Despite the global consequences of change in the Arctic climate the monitoring of basic abiotic as well as biotic parameters are not adequate to assess the impact of global climate change. The uneven geographical location of present monitoring stations in the Arctic limits the ability to understand the climate system. The impact of previous variations and potential future changes to ecosystems is not well understood and need to be addressed. At this point, there is no consensus of scientific opinion on how much of the current changes that are due to anthropogenic influences or to natural variation. Regardless of the cause, there is a need to investigate and assess current observations and their effects to the Arctic. In this chapter examples from both terrestrial and marine ecosystems from ongoing monitoring and research projects are given. (LN)

  2. Adolescence and changing family relations in the Central Canadian Arctic. (United States)

    Condon, R G


    This paper reports on a ten-year longitudinal study of adolescent development and socialization conducted in the Copper Inuit community of Holman. This research has documented how demographic, social, and economic changes have dramatically altered the patterning and sequencing of traditional Inuit life stages, thus giving rise to a prolonged adolescent life stage which was non-existent in the precontact period. At the same time, Inuit family relations have undergone drastic changes as a result of population increase, population concentration, access to government housing, introduction of formal schooling, and the availability of social subsides. Today, the Copper Inuit family has lost its focus as the primary agent of socialization and learning, and many young Inuit now spend most of their time within the context of a greatly expanded peer group which has gradually acquired the values and aspirations of the southern adolescent sub-culture. This paper will discuss the impact of these changing attitudes upon parent-child relations as well as the social adjustment problems experienced by young Inuit as they strive to find a place in the North's changing social landscape.

  3. Methane turnover and environmental change from Holocene biomarker records in a thermokarst lake in Arctic Alaska (United States)

    Elvert, Marcus; Pohlman, John; Becker, Kevin W.; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Wooller, Matthew J.


    Arctic lakes and wetlands contribute a substantial amount of methane to the contemporary atmosphere, yet profound knowledge gaps remain regarding the intensity and climatic control of past methane emissions from this source. In this study, we reconstruct methane turnover and environmental conditions, including estimates of mean annual and summer temperature, from a thermokarst lake (Lake Qalluuraq) on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska for the Holocene by using source-specific lipid biomarkers preserved in a radiocarbon-dated sediment core. Our results document a more prominent role for methane in the carbon cycle when the lake basin was an emergent fen habitat between ~12,300 and ~10,000 cal yr BP, a time period closely coinciding with the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) in North Alaska. Enhanced methane turnover was stimulated by relatively warm temperatures, increased moisture, nutrient supply, and primary productivity. After ~10,000 cal yr BP, a thermokarst lake with abundant submerged mosses evolved, and through the mid-Holocene temperatures were approximately 3°C cooler. Under these conditions, organic matter decomposition was attenuated, which facilitated the accumulation of submerged mosses within a shallower Lake Qalluuraq. Reduced methane assimilation into biomass during the mid-Holocene suggests that thermokarst lakes are carbon sinks during cold periods. In the late-Holocene from ~2700 cal yr BP to the most recent time, however, temperatures and carbon deposition rose and methane oxidation intensified, indicating that more rapid organic matter decomposition and enhanced methane production could amplify climate feedback via potential methane emissions in the future.

  4. Does temporal variation of mercury levels in Arctic seabirds reflect changes in global environmental contamination, or a modification of Arctic marine food web functioning? (United States)

    Fort, Jérôme; Grémillet, David; Traisnel, Gwendoline; Amélineau, Françoise; Bustamante, Paco


    Studying long-term trends of contaminants in Arctic biota is essential to better understand impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on the exposure of sensitive species and marine ecosystems. We concurrently measured temporal changes (2006-2014) in mercury (Hg) contamination of little auks (Alle alle; the most abundant Arctic seabird) and in their major zooplankton prey species (Calanoid copepods, Themisto libellula, Gammarus spp.). We found an increasing contamination of the food-chain in East Greenland during summer over the last decade. More specifically, bird contamination (determined by body feather analyses) has increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Conversely, bird exposure to Hg during winter in the northwest Atlantic (determined by head feather analyses) decreased over the study period (at a rate of 1.5% per year), although winter concentrations remained consistently higher than during summer. By combining mercury levels measured in birds and zooplankton to isotopic analyses, our results demonstrate that inter-annual variations of Hg levels in little auks reflect changes in food-chain contamination, rather than a reorganization of the food web and a modification of seabird trophic ecology. They therefore underline the value of little auks, and Arctic seabirds in general, as bio-indicators of long-term changes in environmental contamination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2 with Rapidly Changing High Arctic Landscapes (United States)

    Emmerton, C. A.


    High Arctic landscapes are expansive and changing rapidly. However our understanding of their functional responses and potential to mitigate or enhance anthropogenic climate change is limited by few measurements. We collected eddy covariance measurements to quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 with polar semidesert and meadow wetland landscapes at the highest-latitude location measured to date (82°N). We coupled these rare data with ground and satellite vegetation production measurements (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to evaluate the effectiveness of upscaling local to regional NEE. During the growing season, the dry polar semidesert landscape was a near zero sink of atmospheric CO2 (NEE: -0.3±13.5 g C m-2). A nearby meadow wetland accumulated over two magnitudes more carbon (NEE: -79.3±20.0 g C m-2) than the polar semidesert landscape, and was similar to meadow wetland NEE at much more southern latitudes. Polar semidesert NEE was most influenced by moisture, with wetter surface soils resulting in greater soil respiration and CO2 emissions. At the meadow wetland, soil heating enhanced plant growth, which in turn increased CO2 uptake. Our upscaling assessment found that polar semidesert NDVI measured on site was low (mean: 0.120-0.157) and similar to satellite measurements (mean: 0.155-0.163). However, weak plant growth resulted in poor satellite NDVI-NEE relationships and created challenges for remotely-detecting changes in the cycling of carbon on the polar semidesert landscape. The meadow wetland appeared more suitable to assess plant production and NEE via remote-sensing, however high Arctic wetland extent is constrained by topography to small areas that may be difficult to resolve with large satellite pixels. We predict that until summer precipitation and humidity increases substantially, climate-related changes of dry high Arctic landscapes may be restricted by poor soil moisture retention, and therefore have some inertia against

  6. Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maslowski, Wieslaw [Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States). Dept. of Oceanography; Cassano, John J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Gutowski, Jr., William J. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Lipscomb, William H. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Nijssen, Bart [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Roberts, Andrew [Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States). Dept. of Oceanography; Robertson, William [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (United States); Tulaczyk, Slawek [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States); Zeng, Xubin [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)


    The primary outcome of the project was the development of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) and evaluation of its individual model components, coupling among them and fully coupled model results. Overall, we have demonstrated that RASM produces realistic mean and seasonal surface climate as well as its interannual and decadal variability and trends.

  7. The Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO)-A Change Detection Array in the Pacific Arctic Sector (United States)

    Grebmeier, J. M.; Moore, S. E.; Cooper, L. W.; Frey, K. E.; Pickart, R. S.


    The Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean is experiencing major reductions in seasonal sea ice extent and increases in sea surface temperatures. One of the key uncertainties in this region is how the marine ecosystem will respond to seasonal shifts in the timing of spring sea ice retreat and/or delays in fall sea ice formation. Variations in upper ocean water hydrography, planktonic production, pelagic-benthic coupling and sediment carbon cycling are all influenced by sea ice and temperature changes. Climate changes are likely to result in shifts in species composition and abundance, northward range expansions, and changes in lower trophic level productivity that can directly cascade and affect the life cycles of higher trophic level organisms. Several regionally critical marine sites in the Pacific Arctic sector that have very high biomass and are focused foraging points for apex predators have been re-occupied during multiple international cruises. The data documenting the importance of these ecosystem "hotspots" provide a growing marine time-series from the northern Bering Sea to Barrow Canyon at the boundary of the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. Results from these studies show spatial changes in carbon production and export to the sediments as indicated by infaunal community composition and biomass, shifts in sediment grain size on a S-to-N latitudinal gradient, and range extensions for lower trophic levels and further northward migration of higher trophic organisms, such as gray whales. There is also direct evidence of negative impacts on ice dependent species, such as walrus and polar bears. To more systematically track the broad biological response to sea ice retreat and associated environmental change, an international consortium of scientists are developing a "Distributed Biological Observatory" (DBO) that includes selected biological measurements at multiple trophic levels. The DBO currently focuses on five regional biological "hotspot" locations along a

  8. Transitions in Arctic ecosystems: Ecological implications of a changing hydrological regime (United States)

    Wrona, Frederick J.; Johansson, Margareta; Culp, Joseph M.; Jenkins, Alan; Mârd, Johanna; Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Prowse, Terry D.; Vincent, Warwick F.; Wookey, Philip A.


    Numerous international scientific assessments and related articles have, during the last decade, described the observed and potential impacts of climate change as well as other related environmental stressors on Arctic ecosystems. There is increasing recognition that observed and projected changes in freshwater sources, fluxes, and storage will have profound implications for the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and ecological processes and properties of Arctic terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. However, a significant level of uncertainty remains in relation to forecasting the impacts of an intensified hydrological regime and related cryospheric change on ecosystem structure and function. As the terrestrial and freshwater ecology component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review these uncertainties and recommend enhanced coordinated circumpolar research and monitoring efforts to improve quantification and prediction of how an altered hydrological regime influences local, regional, and circumpolar-level responses in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Specifically, we evaluate (i) changes in ecosystem productivity; (ii) alterations in ecosystem-level biogeochemical cycling and chemical transport; (iii) altered landscapes, successional trajectories, and creation of new habitats; (iv) altered seasonality and phenological mismatches; and (v) gains or losses of species and associated trophic interactions. We emphasize the need for developing a process-based understanding of interecosystem interactions, along with improved predictive models. We recommend enhanced use of the catchment scale as an integrated unit of study, thereby more explicitly considering the physical, chemical, and ecological processes and fluxes across a full freshwater continuum in a geographic region and spatial range of hydroecological units (e.g., stream-pond-lake-river-near shore marine environments).

  9. Arctic Vortex changes alter the sources and isotopic values of precipitation in northeastern US (United States)

    Puntsag, Tamir; Mitchell, Myron J.; Campbell, John L.; Klein, Eric S.; Likens, Gene E.; Welker, Jeffrey M.


    Altered atmospheric circulation, reductions in Arctic sea ice, ocean warming, and changes in evaporation and transpiration are driving changes in the global hydrologic cycle. Precipitation isotopic (δ18O and δ2H) measurements can help provide a mechanistic understanding of hydrologic change at global and regional scales. To study the changing water cycle in the northeastern US, we examined the longest (1968-2010) record of precipitation isotope values, collected at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, US (43o56‧N, 71o45‧W). We found a significant reduction in δ18O and δ2H values over the 43-year record, coupled with a significant increase in d-excess values. This gradual reduction in δ18O and δ2H values unexpectedly occurred during a period of regional warming. We provide evidence that these changes are governed by the interactions among the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, loss of Arctic sea ice, the fluctuating jet stream, and regular incursions of polar air into the northeastern US.

  10. Quantifying landscape change in an arctic coastal lowland using repeat airborne LiDAR (United States)

    Jones, Benjamin M.; Stoker, Jason M.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Grosse, Guido; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Douglas, Thomas A.; Kinsman, Nichole E.M.; Richmond, Bruce M.


    Increases in air, permafrost, and sea surface temperature, loss of sea ice, the potential for increased wave energy, and higher river discharge may all be interacting to escalate erosion of arctic coastal lowland landscapes. Here we use airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data acquired in 2006 and 2010 to detect landscape change in a 100 km2 study area on the Beaufort Sea coastal plain of northern Alaska. We detected statistically significant change (99% confidence interval), defined as contiguous areas (>10 m2) that had changed in height by at least 0.55 m, in 0.3% of the study region. Erosional features indicative of ice-rich permafrost degradation were associated with ice-bonded coastal, river, and lake bluffs, frost mounds, ice wedges, and thermo-erosional gullies. These features accounted for about half of the area where vertical change was detected. Inferred thermo-denudation and thermo-abrasion of coastal and river bluffs likely accounted for the dominant permafrost-related degradational processes with respect to area (42%) and volume (51%). More than 300 thermokarst pits significantly subsided during the study period, likely as a result of storm surge flooding of low-lying tundra (impact of warm summers in the late-1980s and mid-1990s. Our results indicate that repeat airborne LiDAR can be used to detect landscape change in arctic coastal lowland regions at large spatial scales over sub-decadal time periods.

  11. Arctic sea ice decline: Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas (United States)

    Douglas, David C.


    The Arctic region is warming faster than most regions of the world due in part to increasing greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks associated with the loss of snow and ice cover. One consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades?a decline that is projected to continue by state-of-the-art models. Many stakeholders are therefore interested in how global warming may change the timing and extent of sea ice Arctic-wide, and for specific regions. To inform the public and decision makers of anticipated environmental changes, scientists are striving to better understand how sea ice influences ecosystem structure, local weather, and global climate. Here, projected changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are examined because sea ice influences the presence of, or accessibility to, a variety of local resources of commercial and cultural value. In this study, 21st century sea ice conditions in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are based on projections by 18 general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the fourth reporting period by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Sea ice projections are analyzed for each of two IPCC greenhouse gas forcing scenarios: the A1B `business as usual? scenario and the A2 scenario that is somewhat more aggressive in its CO2 emissions during the second half of the century. A large spread of uncertainty among projections by all 18 models was constrained by creating model subsets that excluded GCMs that poorly simulated the 1979-2008 satellite record of ice extent and seasonality. At the end of the 21st century (2090-2099), median sea ice projections among all combinations of model ensemble and forcing scenario were qualitatively similar. June is projected to experience the least amount of sea ice loss among all months. For the Chukchi Sea, projections show extensive ice melt during July and ice-free conditions during August, September, and October by the end of the century, with high agreement

  12. Improving the Characterization of Arctic Coastline Ecosystem Change near Utqiagvik, Alaska Utilizing Multiyear Terrestrial Laser Scanning (United States)

    Escarzaga, S. M.; Cody, R. P.; Vargas, S. A., Jr.; Fuson, T.; Hodge, B. E.; Tweedie, C. E.


    The Arctic Ocean comprises the largest coastline on Earth and is undergoing environmental change on a level disproportionate to those in lower-latitudes. In the US Arctic, coastal erosion rates along the North Slope of Alaska show that they are among highest in the nation at an average rate of 1.4 meters per year. Despite their importance to biogeochemical cycling, Native village infrastructure and providing pristine species habitat, Arctic coastlines and near shore environments are relatively understudied due to logistical challenges of conducting fieldwork in these locations. This study expands on past efforts which showed dGPS foot surveys work well at describing planar erosion on less complex permafrost bluff types like those seen on the higher-energy coasts east of Utqiagvik, Alaska along the Beaufort Sea where the main mechanism of erosion happens by block failure caused by wave action. However, coastal bluffs along the Chukchi Sea to the west are more complex and variable in terms of form and mechanisms of erosion. Here, where wide beaches tend to buffer wave action, thermal erosion and permafrost slumping produce slower erosion rates. Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) has been applied across a multitude of terrain types, including coastlines spanning various ecosystems. Additionally, this approach allows 3D modeling of fine scale geomorphological features which can facilitate modeling of erosion rates in these areas. This study utilizes a six year time series of TLS on a section of coastal permafrost bluff along the Chukchi Sea south of Utqiagvik. The aim of the work presented is to better understand spatio-temporal trends of coastal bluff face erosion, bluff top subsidence and how these landscape microtopographic changes are coupled to ecosystem changes and land cover types. Preliminary analysis suggests a high rate of stability of the bluff face over the TLS record with most of the detectable permafrost subsidence happening closer to the coastal bluff edge.

  13. An atmosphere-ocean GCM modelling study of the climate response to changing Arctic seaways in the early Cenozoic. (United States)

    Roberts, C. D.; Legrande, A. N.; Tripati, A. K.


    previous findings on the potential influence of Arctic gateways on ocean overturning and also suggests that Northern Hemisphere climate, particularly in the North Atlantic, was very sensitive to changes in Arctic seaways. This result is of particular significance when considered in the context of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Volcanic activity prior to the PETM may have been responsible for the formation of a sub-aerial barrier in the North Atlantic, and consequently may have driven warming of intermediate waters sufficient to destabilize methane clathrates. Evidence for freshening of Arctic ocean waters prior to the PETM would support this hypothesis.

  14. Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic: establishment of a circumpolar working group (United States)

    Parkinson, Alan J.; Evengard, Birgitta; Semenza, Jan C.; Ogden, Nicholas; Børresen, Malene L.; Berner, Jim; Brubaker, Michael; Sjöstedt, Anders; Evander, Magnus; Hondula, David M.; Menne, Bettina; Pshenichnaya, Natalia; Gounder, Prabhu; Larose, Tricia; Revich, Boris; Hueffer, Karsten; Albihn, Ann


    The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may also allow infected host species to survive winters in larger numbers, increase the population size and expand their habitat range. The impact of these changes on human disease in the Arctic has not been fully evaluated. There is concern that climate change may shift the geographic and temporal distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic animals. Potentially climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogens of circumpolar concern include Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella spp., Clostridium botulinum, Francisella tularensis, Borrelia burgdorferi, Bacillus anthracis, Echinococcus spp., Leptospira spp., Giardia spp., Cryptosporida spp., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses. PMID:25317383

  15. Climate change and water security with a focus on the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgitta Evengard


    Full Text Available Water is of fundamental importance for human life; access to water of good quality is of vital concern for mankind. Currently however, the situation is under severe pressure due to several stressors that have a clear impact on access to water. In the Arctic, climate change is having an impact on water availability by melting glaciers, decreasing seasonal rates of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration, and drying lakes and rivers existing in permafrost grounds. Water quality is also being impacted as manmade pollutants stored in the environment are released, lowland areas are flooded with salty ocean water during storms, turbidity from permafrost-driven thaw and erosion is increased, and the growth or emergence of natural pollutants are increased. By 2030 it is estimated that the world will need to produce 50% more food and energy which means a continuous increase in demand for water. Decisionmakers will have to very clearly include life quality aspects of future generations in the work as impact of ongoing changes will be noticeable, in many cases, in the future. This article will focus on effects of climate-change on water security with an Arctic perspective giving some examples from different countries how arising problems are being addressed.

  16. Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic: establishment of a circumpolar working group

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan J. Parkinson


    Full Text Available The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may also allow infected host species to survive winters in larger numbers, increase the population size and expand their habitat range. The impact of these changes on human disease in the Arctic has not been fully evaluated. There is concern that climate change may shift the geographic and temporal distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic animals. Potentially climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogens of circumpolar concern include Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella spp., Clostridium botulinum, Francisella tularensis, Borrelia burgdorferi, Bacillus anthracis, Echinococcus spp., Leptospira spp., Giardia spp., Cryptosporida spp., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses.

  17. Changes in aerosol properties during spring-summer period in the Arctic troposphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.-C. Engvall


    Full Text Available The change in aerosol properties during the transition from the more polluted spring to the clean summer in the Arctic troposphere was studied. A six-year data set of observations from Ny-Ålesund on Svalbard, covering the months April through June, serve as the basis for the characterisation of this time period. In addition four-day-back trajectories were used to describe air mass histories. The observed transition in aerosol properties from an accumulation-mode dominated distribution to an Aitken-mode dominated distribution is discussed with respect to long-range transport and influences from natural and anthropogenic sources of aerosols and pertinent trace gases. Our study shows that the air-mass transport is an important factor modulating the physical and chemical properties observed. However, the air-mass transport cannot alone explain the annually repeated systematic and rather rapid change in aerosol properties, occurring within a limited time window of approximately 10 days. With a simplified phenomenological model, which delivers the nucleation potential for new-particle formation, we suggest that the rapid shift in aerosol microphysical properties between the Arctic spring and summer is mainly driven by the incoming solar radiation in concert with transport of precursor gases and changes in condensational sink.

  18. Forty years of change: a northern Alaskan seabird's response to a warming Arctic (United States)

    Divoky, G.; Suydam, R.


    While recent decadal-scale decreases in the snow and ice habitats of the Arctic are well documented, there are few concurrent long-term biological data sets, especially for species dependent on the cryopelagic ecosystem associated with arctic sea ice. The Black Guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandti), a marine apex predator specializing on prey associated with arctic pack ice has been studied annually since 1975 at a colony on Cooper Island, 35 km east of Point Barrow, Alaska. Over the last four decades critical components of the species' life history have been found to be sensitive to a number of physical and biological effects associated with the region's increasing atmospheric temperatures. Black Guillemots first colonized northern Alaska in the late 1960s and early 1970s as the annual snow-free period increased sufficiently to allow access to nesting cavities for the 80 days required to successfully raise young. At the Cooper Island colony abundance increased during the 1970s and 1980s as summer length continued to increase and wooden nest cavities were provided to increase sample size for monitoring. During this time breeding success was high as summer sea ice remained in the 30-km foraging range of guillemot parents, providing Arctic Cod (Boreogadus saida), the principal forage fish associated with sea ice and the preferred prey of Black Guillemots. Decreasing summer sea ice extent in the 1990s that accelerated in the last decade reduced the guillemots' access to cryopelagic prey during the critical period when parents are provisioning nestlings. Distance from the colony to the pack ice on 15 August averaged 100 km from 2003-2011. This ice retreat had a major affect on Arctic Cod availability, causing parent guillemots to shift to lower quality benthic fish resulting in decreases in nestling quality and breeding success when sea ice had retreated and SST was > 4o C. Increasing loss of summer ice in the last decade also facilitated changes in the distribution of a

  19. Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003-2100 (United States)

    E.S. Euskirchen; A.D. McGuire; T.S. Rupp; F.S. Chapin; J.E. Walsh


    In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003-2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1)...

  20. The role of surface energy fluxes in pan-Arctic snow cover changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Xiaogang; Lettenmaier, Dennis P; Groisman, Pavel Ya; Dery, Stephen J


    We analyze snow cover extent (SCE) trends in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) northern hemisphere weekly satellite SCE data using the Mann-Kendall trend test and find that North American and Eurasian snow cover in the pan-Arctic have declined significantly in spring and summer over the period of satellite record beginning in the early 1970s. These trends are reproduced, both in trend direction and statistical significance, in reconstructions using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model. We find that spring and summer surface radiative and turbulent fluxes generated in VIC have strong correlations with satellite observations of SCE. We identify the role of surface energy fluxes and determine which is most responsible for the observed spring and summer SCE recession. We find that positive trends in surface net radiation (SNR) accompany most of the SCE trends, whereas modeled latent heat (LH) and sensible heat (SH) trends associated with warming on SCE mostly cancel each other, except for North America in spring, and to a lesser extent for Eurasia in summer. In spring over North America and summer in Eurasia, the SH contribution to the observed snow cover trends is substantial. The results indicate that ΔSNR is the primary energy source and ΔSH plays a secondary role in changes of SCE. Compared with ΔSNR and ΔSH, ΔLH has a minor influence on pan-Arctic snow cover changes.

  1. Microbial Community and Functional Gene Changes in Arctic Tundra Soils in a Microcosm Warming Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziming Yang


    Full Text Available Microbial decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC in thawing Arctic permafrost is important in determining greenhouse gas feedbacks of tundra ecosystems to climate. However, the changes in microbial community structure during SOC decomposition are poorly known. Here we examine these changes using frozen soils from Barrow, Alaska, USA, in anoxic microcosm incubation at −2 and 8°C for 122 days. The functional gene array GeoChip was used to determine microbial community structure and the functional genes associated with SOC degradation, methanogenesis, and Fe(III reduction. Results show that soil incubation after 122 days at 8°C significantly decreased functional gene abundance (P < 0.05 associated with SOC degradation, fermentation, methanogenesis, and iron cycling, particularly in organic-rich soil. These observations correspond well with decreases in labile SOC content (e.g., reducing sugar and ethanol, methane and CO2 production, and Fe(III reduction. In contrast, the community functional structure was largely unchanged in the −2°C incubation. Soil type (i.e., organic vs. mineral and the availability of labile SOC were among the most significant factors impacting microbial community structure. These results demonstrate the important roles of microbial community in SOC degradation and support previous findings that SOC in organic-rich Arctic tundra is highly vulnerable to microbial degradation under warming.

  2. Assessing STEM content learning: using the Arctic's changing climate to develop 21st century learner (United States)

    Henderson, G. R.; Durkin, S.; Moran, A.


    In recent years the U.S. federal government has called for an increased focus on science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) in the educational system to ensure that there will be sufficient technical expertise to meet the needs of business and industry. As a direct result of this STEM emphasis, the number of outreach activities aimed at actively engaging these students in STEM learning has surged. Such activities, frequently in the form of summer camps led by university faculty, have targeted primary and secondary school students with the goal of growing student interest in STEM majors and STEM careers. This study assesses short-term content learning using a climate module that highlights rapidly changing Arctic climate conditions to illustrate concepts of radiative energy balance and climate feedback. Hands-on measurement of short and longwave radiation using simple instrumentation is used to demonstrate concepts that are then related back to the "big picture" Arctic issue. Pre and post module questionnaires were used to assess content learning, as this learning type has been identified as the basis for STEM literacy and the vehicle by which 21st century learning skills are usually developed. In this instance, students applied subject knowledge they gained by taking radiation measurements to better understand the real-world problem of climate change.

  3. Pan-Arctic TV Series on Inuit wellness: a northern model of communication for social change? (United States)

    Johnson, Rhonda; Morales, Robin; Leavitt, Doreen; Carry, Catherine; Kinnon, Dianne; Rideout, Denise; Clarida, Kath


    This paper provides highlights of a utilization-focused evaluation of a collaborative Pan-Arctic Inuit Wellness TV Series that was broadcast live in Alaska and Canada in May 2009. This International Polar Year (IPY) communication and outreach project intended to (1) share information on International Polar Year research progress, disseminate findings and explore questions with Inuit in Alaska, Canada and Greenland; (2) provide a forum for Inuit in Alaska, Canada and Greenland to showcase innovative health and wellness projects; (3) ensure Inuit youth and adult engagement throughout; and (4) document and reflect on the overall experience for the purposes of developing and "testing" a participatory communication model. Utilization-focused formative evaluation of the project, with a focus on overall objectives, key messages and lessons learned to facilitate program improvement. Participant observation, surveys, key informant interviews, document review and website tracking. Promising community programs related to 3 themes - men's wellness, maternity care and youth resilience - in diverse circumpolar regions were highlighted, as were current and stillevolving findings from ongoing Arctic research. Multiple media methods were used to effectively deliver and receive key messages determined by both community and academic experts. Local capacity and new regional networks were strengthened. Evidence-based resources for health education and community action were archived in digital formats (websites and DVDs), increasing accessibility to otherwise isolated individuals and remote communities. The Pan-Arctic Inuit Wellness TV Series was an innovative, multi-dimensional communication project that raised both interest and awareness about complex health conditions in the North and stimulated community dialogue and potential for increased collaborative action. Consistent with a communication for social change approach, the project created new networks, increased motivation to act

  4. Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset, Freeze-Up, and Melt Season Length (United States)

    Markus, Thorsten; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Miller, Jeffrey


    In order to explore changes and trends in the timing of Arctic sea ice melt onset and freeze-up and therefore melt season length, we developed a method that obtains this information directly from satellite passive microwave data, creating a consistent data set from 1979 through present. We furthermore distinguish between early melt (the first day of the year when melt is detected) and the first day of continuous melt. A similar distinction is made for the freeze-up. Using this method we analyze trends in melt onset and freeze-up for 10 different Arctic regions. In all regions except for the Sea of Okhotsk, which shows a very slight and statistically insignificant positive trend (O.4 days/decade), trends in melt onset are negative, i.e. towards earlier melt. The trends range from -1.0day/decade for the Bering Sea to -7.3 days/decade for the East Greenland Sea. Except for the Sea of Okhotsk all areas also show a trend towards later autumn freeze onset. The Chukchi/Beaufort Seas and Laptev/East Siberian Seas observe the strongest trends with 7 days/decade. For the entire Arctic, the melt season length has increased by about 20 days over the last 30 years. Largest trends of over 1O days/decade are seen for Hudson Bay, the East Greenland Sea the Laptev/East Siberian Seas, and the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas. Those trends are statistically significant a1 the 99% level.

  5. Has prey availability for Arctic birds advanced with climate change? Hindcasting the abundance of tundra arthropods using weather and seasonal variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tulp, I.; Schekkerman, H.


    Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed

  6. Has prey availability for Arctic birds advanced with climate change? Hindcasting the abundance of tundra Arthropods using weather and seasonal variation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tulp, I.Y.M.; Schekkerman, H.


    Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed

  7. Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macdonald, R.W.; Harner, T.; Fyfe, J.


    The Arctic has undergone dramatic change during the past decade. The observed changes include atmospheric sea-level pressure, wind fields, sea-ice drift, ice cover, length of melt season, change in precipitation patterns, change in hydrology and change in ocean currents and watermass distribution. It is likely that these primary changes have altered the carbon cycle and biological systems, but the difficulty of observing these together with sporadic, incomplete time series makes it difficult to evaluate what the changes have been. Because contaminants enter global systems and transport through air and water, the changes listed above will clearly alter contaminant pathways. Here, we review what is known about recent changes using the Arctic Oscillation as a proxy to help us understand the forms under which global change will be manifest in the Arctic. For Pb, Cd and Zn, the Arctic is likely to become a more effective trap because precipitation is likely to increase. In the case of Cd, the natural cycle in the ocean appears to have a much greater potential to alter exposure than do human releases of this metal. Mercury has an especially complex cycle in the Arctic including a unique scavenging process (mercury depletion events), biomagnifying foodwebs, and chemical transformations such as methylation. The observation that mercury seems to be increasing in a number of aquatic species whereas atmospheric gaseous mercury shows little sign of change suggests that factors related to change in the physical system (ice cover, permafrost degradation, organic carbon cycling) may be more important than human activities. Organochlorine contaminants offer a surprising array of possibilities for changed pathways. To change in precipitation patterns can be added change in ice cover (air-water exchange), change in food webs either from the top down or from the bottom up (biomagnification), change in the organic carbon cycle and change in diets. Perhaps the most interesting

  8. Sea-Level Change in the Russian Arctic Since the Last Glacial Maximum (United States)

    Horton, B.; Baranskaya, A.; Khan, N.; Romanenko, F. A.


    Relative sea-level (RSL) databases that span the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present have been used to infer changes in climate, regional ice sheet variations, the rate and geographic source of meltwater influx, and the rheological structure of the solid Earth. Here, we have produced a quality-controlled RSL database for the Russian Arctic since the LGM. The database contains 394 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space, and 244 limiting points, which constrain the minimum or maximum limit of former sea level. In the western part of the Russian Arctic (Barents and White seas,) RSL was driven by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to deglaciation of the Scandinavian ice sheet, which covered the Baltic crystalline shield at the LGM. RSL data from isolation basins show rapid RSL from 80-100 m at 11-12 ka BP to 15-25 m at 4-5 ka BP. In the Arctic Islands of Franz-Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, RSL data from dated driftwood in raised beaches show a gradual fall from 25-35 m at 9-10 ka BP to 5-10 m at 3 ka BP. In the Russian plain, situated at the margins of the formerly glaciated Baltic crystalline shield, RSL data from raised beaches and isolation basins show an early Holocene rise from less than -20 m at 9-11 ka BP before falling in the late Holocene, illustrating the complex interplay between ice-equivalent meltwater input and GIA. The Western Siberian Arctic (Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas, Beliy Island and islands of the Kara Sea) was not glaciated at the LGM. Sea-level data from marine and salt-marsh deposits show RSL rise at the beginning of the Holocene to a mid-Holocene highstand of 1-5 m at 5-1 ka BP. A similar, but more complex RSL pattern is shown for Eastern Siberia. RSL data from the Laptev Sea shelf show RSL at -40- -45 m and 11-14 ka BP. RSL data from the Lena Delta and Tiksi region have a highstand from 5 to 1 ka BP. The research is supported by RSF project 17-77-10130

  9. Integrating Access to Arctic Environmental Change and Human Health Research for the International Polar Year and Beyond (United States)

    Garrett, C. L.


    Each day, people in the communities of the Arctic face challenges to their health and well-being from changing climatic and environmental conditions and increasing levels of pollution to emerging infectious diseases. For this reason, it is critical that Arctic researchers and residents have access to timely, accurate, and relevant information addressing their unique concerns. To meet this need, the National Library of Medicine (NLM) and the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA) have developed the Arctic Health website, The website provides an easy-to-use one-stop shop for information on the diverse health-related aspects of the Arctic region. It is organized around relevant topics, including climate change and environmental health, traditional healing and telehealth/telemedicine. The Arctic Health website provides links to the most reliable resources available from local, state, and international agencies, universities, and professional organizations. Two major goals of the site are to create a comprehensive, accessible repository for various media and a listing of research projects, past and present that relate to climate change and human health in the Arctic. To increase the site's relevance, the project has established and continues to create collaborations with researchers, communities, and other organizations to supply publications not available elsewhere, including gray literature, streaming video of traditional healers, and oral histories. These collaborations will also help ensure a database with a comprehensive list of research projects being done in the Arctic, from the international to the local level. Finding ways to negotiate the legal, cultural and national concerns of data sharing are a continuing job for the management team. All of this helps to create a system that will eventually track and ensure that data and reports from the research database translate to the publications database. As part of these efforts, the site is

  10. Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge (United States)

    Davenport, Jon M.; Hossack, Blake R.; Fishback, LeeAnn


    Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1–4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment

  11. Quantifying landscape change in an arctic coastal lowland using repeat airborne LiDAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Benjamin M; Stoker, Jason M; Gibbs, Ann E; Richmond, Bruce M; Grosse, Guido; Romanovsky, Vladimir E; Douglas, Thomas A; Kinsman, Nicole E M


    Increases in air, permafrost, and sea surface temperature, loss of sea ice, the potential for increased wave energy, and higher river discharge may all be interacting to escalate erosion of arctic coastal lowland landscapes. Here we use airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data acquired in 2006 and 2010 to detect landscape change in a 100 km 2 study area on the Beaufort Sea coastal plain of northern Alaska. We detected statistically significant change (99% confidence interval), defined as contiguous areas (>10 m 2 ) that had changed in height by at least 0.55 m, in 0.3% of the study region. Erosional features indicative of ice-rich permafrost degradation were associated with ice-bonded coastal, river, and lake bluffs, frost mounds, ice wedges, and thermo-erosional gullies. These features accounted for about half of the area where vertical change was detected. Inferred thermo-denudation and thermo-abrasion of coastal and river bluffs likely accounted for the dominant permafrost-related degradational processes with respect to area (42%) and volume (51%). More than 300 thermokarst pits significantly subsided during the study period, likely as a result of storm surge flooding of low-lying tundra (<1.4 m asl) as well as the lasting impact of warm summers in the late-1980s and mid-1990s. Our results indicate that repeat airborne LiDAR can be used to detect landscape change in arctic coastal lowland regions at large spatial scales over sub-decadal time periods. (letter)

  12. Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge. (United States)

    Davenport, Jon M; Hossack, Blake R; Fishback, LeeAnn


    Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1-4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that

  13. Large-scale temperature and salinity changes in the upper Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean at a time of a drastic Arctic Oscillation inversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bourgain


    Full Text Available Between 2008 and 2010, the Arctic Oscillation index over Arctic regions shifted from positive values corresponding to more cyclonic conditions prevailing during the 4th International Polar Year (IPY period (2007–2008 to extremely negative values corresponding to strong anticyclonic conditions in 2010. In this context, we investigated the recent large-scale evolution of the upper western Arctic Ocean, based on temperature and salinity summertime observations collected during icebreaker campaigns and from ice-tethered profilers (ITPs drifting across the region in 2008 and 2010. Particularly, we focused on (1 the freshwater content which was extensively studied during previous years, (2 the near-surface temperature maximum due to incoming solar radiation, and (3 the water masses advected from the Pacific Ocean into the Arctic Ocean. The observations revealed a freshwater content change in the Canadian Basin during this time period. South of 80° N, the freshwater content increased, while north of 80° N, less freshening occurred in 2010 compared to 2008. This was more likely due to the strong anticyclonicity characteristic of a low AO index mode that enhanced both a wind-generated Ekman pumping in the Beaufort Gyre and a possible diversion of the Siberian River runoff toward the Eurasian Basin at the same time. The near-surface temperature maximum due to incoming solar radiation was almost 1 °C colder in the southern Canada Basin (south of 75° N in 2010 compared to 2008, which contrasted with the positive trend observed during previous years. This was more likely due to higher summer sea ice concentration in 2010 compared to 2008 in that region, and surface albedo feedback reflecting more sun radiation back in space. The Pacific water (PaW was also subjected to strong spatial and temporal variability between 2008 and 2010. In the Canada Basin, both summer and winter PaW signatures were stronger between 75° N and 80° N. This was more likely

  14. Resilience, human agency and climate change adaptation strategies in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sejersen, Frank


    and work with a number of barriers for resilience. The objective of the article is first to address the position of institutional barriers in the studies and strategies. Second the article analyses the role human agency is ascribed in proposed strategies and projects in Nunavut and Greenland. With a focus......  In the Arctic, indigenous peoples, researchers and governments are working to develop climate change adaptation strategies due to the rapid changes in sea ice extent, weather conditions and in the ecosystem as such. These strategies are often based on specific perceptions of vulnerability...... on institutions and human agency the question is not only ‘how do people manage to adapt?' but moreover ‘what constrains people in pursuing a given adaptation strategy?' The article introduces the concept of double agency which stresses two different aspects of human agency that can be used to understand...

  15. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections (United States)

    Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D.A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.


    Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

  16. The structuring role of fish in Greenland lakes: an overview based on contemporary and paleoecological studies of 87 lakes from the low and the high Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Erik; Lauridsen, Torben L.; Christoffersen, Kirsten S.


    largest between fishless lakes and lakes hosting only sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus), while lakes with both Arctic charr (Salvelinus arcticus) and stickleback revealed a more modest response, indicating that presence of charr modulates the predation effect of sticklebacks. It is predicted that more...

  17. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.


    The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

  18. Soil Carbon Residence Time in the Arctic - Potential Drivers of Past and Future Change (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Fisher, J.; Schwalm, C. R.; Hayes, D. J.; Stofferahn, E.; Hantson, W.; Schaefer, K. M.; Fang, Y.; Michalak, A. M.; Wei, Y.


    Carbon residence time is one of the most important factors controlling carbon cycling in ecosystems. Residence time depends on carbon allocation and conversion among various carbon pools and the rate of organic matter decomposition; all of which rely on environmental conditions, primarily temperature and soil moisture. As a result, residence time is an emergent property of models and a strong determinant of terrestrial carbon storage capacity. However, residence time is poorly constrained in process-based models due, in part, to the lack of data with which to benchmark global-scale models in order to guide model improvements and, ultimately, reduce uncertainty in model projections. Here we focus on improving the understanding of the drivers to observed and simulated carbon residence time in the Arctic-Boreal region (ABR). Carbon-cycling in the ABR represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty in historical and future projections of land-atmosphere carbon dynamics. This uncertainty is depicted in the large spread of terrestrial biospheric model (TBM) estimates of carbon flux and ecosystem carbon pool size in this region. Recent efforts, such as the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), have increased the availability of spatially explicit in-situ and remotely sensed carbon and ecosystem focused data products in the ABR. Together with simulations from Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we use these observations to evaluate the ability of models to capture soil carbon stocks and changes in the ABR. Specifically, we compare simulated versus observed soil carbon residence times in order to evaluate the functional response and sensitivity of modeled soil carbon stocks to changes in key environmental drivers. Understanding how simulated carbon residence time compares with observations and what drives these differences is critical for improving projections of changing carbon dynamics in the ABR and globally.

  19. Arctic Sea Ice in Transformation: A Review of Recent Observed Changes and Impacts on Biology and Human Activity (United States)

    Meier, Walter N.; Hovelsrud, Greta K.; van Oort, Bob E. H.; Key, Jeffrey R.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Michel, Christine; Haas, Christian; Granskog, Mats A.; Gerland, Sebastian; Perovich, Donald K.; hide


    Sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most rapidly changing components of the global climate system. Over the past few decades, summer areal extent has declined over 30, and all months show statistically significant declining trends. New satellite missions and techniques have greatly expanded information on sea ice thickness, but many uncertainties remain in the satellite data and long-term records are sparse. However, thickness observations and other satellite-derived data indicate a 40 decline in thickness, due in large part to the loss of thicker, older ice cover. The changes in sea ice are happening faster than models have projected. With continued increasing temperatures, summer ice-free conditions are likely sometime in the coming decades, though there are substantial uncertainties in the exact timing and high interannual variability will remain as sea ice decreases. The changes in Arctic sea ice are already having an impact on flora and fauna in the Arctic. Some species will face increasing challenges in the future, while new habitat will open up for other species. The changes are also affecting peoples living and working in the Arctic. Native communities are facing challenges to their traditional ways of life, while new opportunities open for shipping, fishing, and natural resource extraction.

  20. Sub-arctic hydrology and climate change : a case study of the Tana River Basin in Northern Fennoscandia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dankers, Rutger


    The most significant changes in climate, due to the well-known enhanced greenhouse effect, are generally expected to occur at northern high latitudes. Sub-arctic environments, that are dominated by the presence of a seasonal snow cover, may therefore be particularly sensitive to global warming. The

  1. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the arctic (VACCA): Implementing recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    This report provides recommendations for how Norway's government could move forward with the results from the Arctic Council supported VACCA project, suggesting how concrete activities may be implemented and applied to policy and practice. Based on the results of interviews with Arctic peoples and people involved in Arctic work, combined with desk studies of relevant literature, four Arctic contexts are defined within the dividing lines coastal/non-coastal and urban/non-urban. This report provides up to five concrete recommendations within each context, recommendations for cross-contextual action, and specific projects for further research and action.(auth)

  2. Changes in the marine carbonate system of the western Arctic: patterns in a rescued data set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa A. Miller


    Full Text Available A recently recovered and compiled set of inorganic carbon data collected in the Canadian Arctic since the 1970s has revealed substantial change, as well as variability, in the carbonate system of the Beaufort Sea and Canada Basin. Whereas the role of this area as a net atmospheric carbon sink has been confirmed, high pCO2 values in the upper halocline underscore the potential for CO2 outgassing as sea ice retreats and upwelling increases. In addition, increasing total inorganic carbon and decreasing alkalinity are increasing pCO2 and decreasing CaCO3 saturation states, such that undersaturation with respect to aragonite now occurs regularly in both deep waters and the upper halocline.

  3. Hydrographic changes in the Lincoln Sea in the Arctic Ocean with focus on an upper ocean freshwater anomaly between 2007 and 2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Steur, L.; Steele, M.; Hansen, E.; Morison, J.; Polyakov, I.; Olsen, S.M.; Melling, H.; McLaughlin, F.A.; Kwok, R.; Smethie Jr., W.M.; Schlosser, P.


    Hydrographic data from the Arctic Ocean show that freshwater content in the Lincoln Sea, north of Greenland, increased significantly from 2007 to 2010, slightly lagging changes in the eastern and central Arctic. The anomaly was primarily caused by a decrease in the upper ocean salinity. In 2011

  4. Contemporary white-band disease in Caribbean corals driven by climate change (United States)

    Randall, C. J.; van Woesik, R.


    Over the past 40 years, two of the dominant reef-building corals in the Caribbean, Acropora palmata and Acropora cervicornis, have experienced unprecedented declines. That loss has been largely attributed to a syndrome commonly referred to as white-band disease. Climate change-driven increases in sea surface temperature (SST) have been linked to several coral diseases, yet, despite decades of research, the attribution of white-band disease to climate change remains unknown. Here we hindcasted the potential relationship between recent ocean warming and outbreaks of white-band disease on acroporid corals. We quantified eight SST metrics, including rates of change in SST and contemporary thermal anomalies, and compared them with records of white-band disease on A. palmata and A. cervicornis from 473 sites across the Caribbean, surveyed from 1997 to 2004. The results of our models suggest that decades-long climate-driven changes in SST, increases in thermal minima, and the breach of thermal maxima have all played significant roles in the spread of white-band disease. We conclude that white-band disease has been strongly coupled with thermal stresses associated with climate change, which has contributed to the regional decline of these once-dominant reef-building corals.

  5. Contemporary Trans-regional Cooperation between Europe and Asia in a Changing World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beginda Pakpahan


    Full Text Available This article is concerned with contemporary trans-regional cooperation between Europe and Asia in a changing world. It examines the emerging economic relationship between the EU and Asia and possible challenges and implications facing both regions. It argues that Europe - Asia economic and commercial ties are likely in the future to result in unbalanced economic development between both these regions; in short, future agreements are likely to disproportionately favour Europe. Therefore, the economic and commercial ties between these two regions should aim to develop the least advanced countries in Asia. The article argues that ASEM can be empowered as a common flexible framework for bilateral and inter-regional trade initiatives between both regions; it can be empowered to manage and monitor these trade initiatives and their social implications for vulnerable ASEM countries. The main objective of this article is to contribute a clearer understanding of the current EU - Asia relationship in the context of ASEM.

  6. Changing Conditions in the Arctic: An Analysis of 45 years of Tropospheric Ozone Measurements at Barrow Observatory (United States)

    McClure-Begley, A.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Crepinsek, S.; Jefferson, A.; Emmons, L. K.; Oltmans, S. J.


    In order to understand the impact of climate on local bio-systems, understanding the changes to the atmospheric composition and processes in the Arctic boundary layer and free troposphere is imperative. In the Arctic, many conditions influence tropospheric ozone variability such as: seasonal halogen caused depletion events, long range transport of pollutants from mid-northern latitudes, compounds released from wildfires, and different meteorological conditions. The Barrow station in Utqiagvik, Alaska has collected continuous measurements of ground-level ozone since 1973. This unique long-term time series allows for analysis of the influence of a rapidly changing climate on ozone conditions in this region. Specifically, this study analyzes the frequency of enhanced ozone episodes over time and provides in depth analysis of periods of positive deviations from the expected conditions. To discern the contribution of different pollutant sources to observed ozone variability, co-located measurements of aerosols, carbon monoxide, and meteorological conditions are used. In addition, the NCAR Mozart-4/MOPITT Chemical Forecast model and NOAA Hysplit back-trajectory analysis provide information on transport patterns to the Arctic and confirmation of the emission sources that influenced the observed conditions. These anthropogenic influences on ozone variability in and below the boundary layer are essential for developing an understanding of the interaction of climate change and the bio-systems in the Arctic.

  7. Potential changes in arctic seasonality and plant communities may impact tundra soil chemistry and carbon dynamics (United States)

    Crow, S.; Cooper, E.; Beilman, D.; Filley, T.; Reimer, P.


    On the Svalbard archipelago, as in other high Arctic regions, tundra soil organic matter (SOM) is primarily plant detritus that is largely stabilized by cold, moist conditions and low nitrogen availability. However, the resistance of SOM to decomposition is also influenced by the quality of organic matter inputs to soil. Different plant communities are likely to give different qualities to SOM, especially where lignin-rich woody species encroach into otherwise graminoid and bryophyte-dominated regions. Arctic woody plant species are particularly sensitive to changes in temperature, snow cover, and growing season length. In a changing environment, litter chemistry may emerge as an important control on tundra SOM stabilization. In summer 2007, we collected plant material and soil from the highly-organic upper horizon (appx. 0-5 cm) and the mineral-dominated lower horizon (appx. 5-10cm) from four locations in the southwest facing valleys of Svalbard, Norway. The central goal of the ongoing experiment is to determine whether a greater abundance of woody plants could provide a negative feedback to warming impacts on the carbon (C) balance of Arctic soils. Towards this, we used a combination of plant biopolymer analyses (cupric oxide oxidation and quantification of lignin-derived phenols and cutin/suberin-derived aliphatics) and radiocarbon-based estimates of C longevity and mean residence time (MRT) to characterize potential links between plant type and soil C pools. We found that graminoid species regenerate above- and belowground tissue each year, whereas woody species (Cassiope tetragona and Dryas octopetala) regenerated only leaves yearly. In contrast, C within live branches and roots persisted for 15-18 yr on average. Leaves from woody species remained nearly intact in surface litter for up to 20 yr without being incorporated into the upper soil horizon. Leaves from both graminoid and woody species were concentrated in lignin-derived phenols relative to roots, but

  8. Modelling the impact of climate change on the atmospheric transport and the fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic (United States)

    Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Geels, C.; Silver, J. D.; Brandt, J.


    The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was applied to investigate how projected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Arctic and their environmental fate within the Arctic. Three sets of simulations were performed, one with present day emissions and initial environmental concentrations from a 20-year spin-up simulation, one with present day emissions and with initial environmental concentrations set to zero and one without emissions but with initial environmental concentrations from the 20-year spin-up simulation. Each set of simulations consisted of two 10-year time slices representing the present (1990-2000) and future (2090-2100) climate conditions. DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulation model, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B climate scenario. Under the applied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds was predicted to be up to 55 % lower across the Northern Hemisphere at the end of the 2090s than in the 1990s. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic was predicted to be up to 38 % higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBs was predicted to range from 38 % lower to 17 % higher depending on the congener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The results of this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emission history will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arctic environment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates the environmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climate scenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to the atmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degree counteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher mean temperature. The more dominant of these two processes depends on the physical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model


    Surface air temperature in arctic regions has increased since pre-industrial times, raising concerns that warmer and possibly drier conditions have increased soil decomposition rates, thereby stimulating the release to the atmosphere of the large stores of carbon (C) in arctic so...

  10. A process of change and a changing process : introduction to the special issue on contemporary gentrification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doucet, B.


    Gentrification is a process of social and spatial change, but it is also a changing process. This special issue aims to better understand new forms of gentrification, policies and experiences which have emerged since the year 2000. Specific emphasis has been given to the Netherlands, a country where

  11. Pyrosequencing analysis of the protist communities in a High Arctic meromictic lake: DNA preservation and change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophie eCharvet


    Full Text Available High Arctic meromictic lakes are extreme environments characterized by cold temperatures, low nutrient inputs from their polar desert catchments and prolonged periods of low irradiance and darkness. These lakes are permanently stratified with an oxygenated freshwater layer (mixolimnion overlying a saline, anoxic water column (monimolimnion. The physical and chemical properties of the deepest known lake of this type in the circumpolar Arctic, Lake A, on the far northern coast of Ellesmere Island, Canada, have been studied over the last 15 years, but little is known about the lake’s biological communities. We applied high-throughput sequencing of the V4 region of the 18S ribosomal RNA gene to investigate the protist communities down the water column at three sampling times: under the ice at the end of winter in 2008, during an unusual period of warming and ice-out the same year, and again under the ice in mid-summer 2009. Sequences of many protist taxa occurred throughout the water column at all sampling times, including in the deep anoxic layer where growth is highly unlikely. Furthermore, there were sequences for taxonomic groups including diatoms and marine taxa, which have never been observed in Lake A by microscopic analysis. However the sequences of other taxa such as ciliates, chrysophytes, Cercozoa and Telonema varied with depth, between years and during the transition to ice-free conditions. These results imply that there are seasonally active taxa in the surface waters of the lake that are sensitive to depth and change with time. DNA from these taxa is superimposed upon background DNA from multiple internal and external sources that is preserved in the deep, cold, largely anoxic water column.

  12. Backyard of the Rich North: The Climate Change-related Vicious Circle of the Arctic Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varis, Olli


    The Arctic zone is full of controversies, unknowns, contrasts, and challenges. The following example is enlightening. Saudi Arabia is a country that has been considered to have almost unlimited possibilities because of its enormous oil earnings. The country has US$60 thousand million purchasing power parity oil income each year for its mere 22 million inhabitants. Astonishingly, the Arctic zone's income from oil, gas, and minerals is at least as large as that of Saudi Arabia, modestly estimated, but the Arctic has less than 4 million people. Most money, however, flows away from the tundra, yet social and environmental problems remain there. A part of the side effect of consuming these resources - largely fossil fuels - returns to the Arctic in the form of greenhouse warming and all its consequences. The Arctic zone now warms at approximately double the rate of the world average

  13. The Changing Pattern of Nutrition Intake by Social Class in Contemporary China, 1991-2011. (United States)

    Xu, Zhun; Zhang, Wei


    To explore the changing pattern of nutrition intake by social class in contemporary China. We defined social class in 2 ways. The first definition was based on employment, and the second definition was based on per capita household income levels. We used China Health and Nutrition Survey data from 1991 to 2011 to show the changes in the relation between social class and nutrition intake. The relation between social class and nutrition intake in China changed significantly within the 2 decades. For example, in the early 1990s, the lowest social class (defined by employment or income) had more caloric intake than did the highest social class; 20 years later, however, the relation reversed, and the lowest social class consumed significantly fewer calories. China has seen a great reversal in its social class-nutrition relationship since the early 1990s. Our study calls for wider recognition that insufficient consumption of food and nutrition is increasingly an issue for people in the lower social classes in China.

  14. The Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO): A Change Detection Array in the Pacific Arctic Region (United States)

    Grebmeier, J. M.; Moore, S. E.; Cooper, L. W.; Frey, K. E.; Pickart, R. S.


    The Pacific region of the Arctic Ocean is experiencing major reductions in seasonal sea ice extent and increases in sea surface temperatures. One of the key uncertainties in this region is how the marine ecosystem will respond to seasonal shifts in the timing of spring sea ice retreat and/or delays in fall sea ice formation. Climate changes are likely to result in shifts in species composition and abundance, northward range expansions, and changes in lower trophic level productivity that can directly cascade and affect the life cycles of higher trophic level organisms. The developing Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) is composed of focused biological and oceanographic sampling at biological "hot spot" sites for lower and higher trophic organisms on a latitudinal S-to-N array. The DBO is being developed by an international consortium of scientists in the Pacific Arctic as a change detection array to systematically track the broad biological response to sea ice retreat and associated environmental change. Coordinated ship-based observations over various seasons, together with satellite and mooring data collections at the designated sites, can provide an early detection system for biological and ecosystem response to climate warming. The data documenting the importance of these ecosystem "hotspots" provide a growing marine time-series from the northern Bering Sea to Barrow Canyon at the boundary of the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. Results from these studies show spatial changes in carbon production and export to the sediments as indicated by infaunal community composition and biomass, shifts in sediment grain size on a S-to-N latitudinal gradient, and range extensions for lower trophic levels and further northward migration of higher trophic organisms, such as gray whales. There is also direct evidence of negative impacts on ice dependent species, such as walrus and polar bears. As a ramp up to a fully operational observatory, hydrographic transects and select

  15. Polar cloud observatory at Ny-Ålesund in GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project (United States)

    Yamanouchi, Takashi; Takano, Toshiaki; Shiobara, Masataka; Okamoto, Hajime; Koike, Makoto; Ukita, Jinro


    Cloud is one of the main processes in the climate system and especially a large feed back agent for Arctic warming amplification (Yoshimori et al., 2014). From this reason, observation of polar cloud has been emphasized and 95 GHz cloud profiling radar in high precision was established at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard in 2013 as one of the basic infrastructure in the GRENE (Green Network of Excellence Program) Arctic Climate Change Research Project. The radar, "FALCON-A", is a FM-CW (frequency modulated continuous wave) Doppler radar, developed for Arctic use by Chiba University (PI: T. Takano) in 2012, following its prototype, "FALCON-1" which was developed in 2006 (Takano et al., 2010). The specifications of the radar are, central frequency: 94.84 GHz; antenna power: 1 W; observation height: up to 15 km; range resolution: 48 m; beam width: 0.2 degree (15 m at 5 km); Doppler width: 3.2 m/s; time interval: 10 sec, and capable of archiving high sensitivity and high spatial and time resolution. An FM-CW type radar realizes similar sensitivity with much smaller parabolic antennas separated 1.4 m from each other used for transmitting and receiving the wave. Polarized Micro-Pulse Lidar (PMPL, Sigma Space MPL-4B-IDS), which is capable to measure the backscatter and depolarization ratio, has also been deployed to Ny-Ålesund in March 2012, and now operated to perform collocated measurements with FALCON-A. Simultaneous measurement data from collocated PMPL and FALCON-A are available for synergetic analyses of cloud microphysics. Cloud mycrophysics, such as effective radius of ice particles and ice water content, are obtained from the analysis based on algorithm, which is modified for ground-based measurements from Okamoto's retrieval algorithm for satellite based cloud profiling radar and lidar (CloudSat and CALIPSO; Okamoto et al., 2010). Results of two years will be shown in the presentation. Calibration is a point to derive radar reflectivity (dBZ) from original intensity data

  16. Tracking Biological and Ecosystem Responses to Changing Environmental Conditions in the Pacific Arctic (United States)

    Grebmeier, J. M.; Cooper, L. W.; Frey, K. E.; Moore, S. E.


    Changing seasonal sea ice conditions and seawater temperatures strongly influence biological processes and marine ecosystems at high latitudes. In the Pacific Arctic, persistent regions termed "hotspots", are localized areas with high benthic macroinfaunal biomass that have been documented over four decades (see Figure). These regions are now being more formally tracked to relate physical forcing and ecosystem response as an Arctic Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) supported by the US National Ocean Policy Implementation Plan and international partners. These hotspots are important foraging areas for upper trophic level benthic feeders, such as marine mammals and seabirds. South of St. Lawrence Island (SLI) in the northern Bering Sea, benthic feeding spectacled eiders, bearded seals and walruses are important winter consumers of infauna, such as bivalves and polychaetes. Gray whales have historically been a major summer consumer of benthic amphipods in the Chirikov Basin to the north of SLI, although summertime sightings of gray whales declined in the Chirikov from the 1980s up until at least 2002. The SE Chukchi Sea hotspot, as are the other hotspots, is maintained by export of high chlorophyll a that is produced locally as well as advected by water masses transiting northward through the system. Both walrus and gray whales are known to forage in this hotspot seasonally on high biomass levels of benthic prey. Notably the center of the highest benthic biomass regions has shifted northward in three of the DBO hotspots in recent years. This has coincided with changing sediment grain size, an indicator of current speed, and is also likely a response to changes in primary production in the region. Studies of these broad biological responses to changing physical drivers have been facilitated through development of the DBO cooperative effort by both US and international scientists. The DBO includes a series of coordinated, multi-trophic level observations that

  17. A contemporary decennial global Landsat sample of changing agricultural field sizes (United States)

    White, Emma; Roy, David


    Agriculture has caused significant human induced Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change, with dramatic cropland expansion in the last century and significant increases in productivity over the past few decades. Satellite data have been used for agricultural applications including cropland distribution mapping, crop condition monitoring, crop production assessment and yield prediction. Satellite based agricultural applications are less reliable when the sensor spatial resolution is small relative to the field size. However, to date, studies of agricultural field size distributions and their change have been limited, even though this information is needed to inform the design of agricultural satellite monitoring systems. Moreover, the size of agricultural fields is a fundamental description of rural landscapes and provides an insight into the drivers of rural LCLU change. In many parts of the world field sizes may have increased. Increasing field sizes cause a subsequent decrease in the number of fields and therefore decreased landscape spatial complexity with impacts on biodiversity, habitat, soil erosion, plant-pollinator interactions, and impacts on the diffusion of herbicides, pesticides, disease pathogens, and pests. The Landsat series of satellites provide the longest record of global land observations, with 30m observations available since 1982. Landsat data are used to examine contemporary field size changes in a period (1980 to 2010) when significant global agricultural changes have occurred. A multi-scale sampling approach is used to locate global hotspots of field size change by examination of a recent global agricultural yield map and literature review. Nine hotspots are selected where significant field size change is apparent and where change has been driven by technological advancements (Argentina and U.S.), abrupt societal changes (Albania and Zimbabwe), government land use and agricultural policy changes (China, Malaysia, Brazil), and/or constrained by

  18. Groundwater storage changes in arctic permafrost watersheds from GRACE and in situ measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muskett, Reginald R; Romanovsky, Vladimir E


    The Arctic permafrost regions make up the largest area component of the cryosphere. Observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission offer to provide a greater understanding of changes in water mass within permafrost regions. We investigate a GRACE monthly time series, snow water equivalent from the special scanning microwave imager (SSM/I), vegetation water content and soil moisture from the advanced microwave scanning radiometer for the Earth observation system (AMSR-E) and in situ discharge of the Lena, Yenisei, Ob', and Mackenzie watersheds. The GRACE water equivalent mass change responded to mass loading by snow accumulation in winter and mass unloading by runoff in spring-summer. Comparison of secular trends from GRACE to runoff suggests groundwater storage increased in the Lena and Yenisei watersheds, decreased in the Mackenzie watershed, and was unchanged in the Ob' watershed. We hypothesize that the groundwater storage changes are linked to the development of closed- and open-talik in the continuous permafrost zone and the decrease of permafrost lateral extent in the discontinuous permafrost zone of the watersheds.

  19. Varying boreal forest response to Arctic environmental change at the Firth River, Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreu-Hayles, Laia; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Beck, Pieter S A; Goetz, Scott; Frank, David


    The response of boreal forests to anthropogenic climate change remains uncertain, with potentially significant impacts for the global carbon cycle, albedo, canopy evapotranspiration and feedbacks into further climate change. Here, we focus on tree-ring data from the Firth River site at treeline in northeastern Alaska, in a tundra–forest transition region where pronounced warming has already occurred. Both tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies were developed to identify the nature of tree growth and density responses to climatic and environmental changes in white spruce (Picea glauca), a dominant Arctic treeline species. Good agreement was found between the interannual fluctuations in the TRW chronology and summer temperatures from 1901 to 1950, whereas no significant relationships were found from 1951 to 2001, supporting evidence of significant divergence between TRW and summer temperature in the second half of the 20th century. In contrast to this unstable climatic response in the TRW record, the high frequency July–August temperature signal in the MXD series seems reasonably stable through the 20th century. Wider and denser rings were more frequent during the 20th century, particularly after 1950, than in previous centuries. Finally, comparison between the tree-ring proxies and a satellite-derived vegetation index suggests that TRW and MXD correlate with vegetation productivity at the landscape level at different times of the growing season.

  20. Climate change and consequences in the Arctic: perception of climate change by the Nenets people of Vaigach Island. (United States)

    Davydov, Alexander N; Mikhailova, Galina V


    Arctic climate change is already having a significant impact on the environment, economic activity, and public health. For the northern peoples, traditions and cultural identity are closely related to the natural environment so any change will have consequences for society in several ways. A questionnaire was given to the population on the Vaigach island, the Nenets who rely to a large degree on hunting, fishing and reindeer herding for survival. Semi-structured interviews were also conducted about perception of climate change. Climate change is observed and has already had an impact on daily life according to more than 50% of the respondents. The winter season is now colder and longer and the summer season colder and shorter. A decrease in standard of living was noticeable but few were planning to leave. Climate change has been noticed in the region and it has a negative impact on the standard of living for the Nenets. However, as of yet they do not want to leave as cultural identity is important for their overall well-being.

  1. Modelling impact of climate change on atmospheric transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic (United States)

    Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Geels, C.; Silver, J. D.; Brandt, J.


    The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was applied to investigate how projected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Artic and their environmental fate within the Arctic. Two sets of simulations were performed, one with initial environmental concentrations from a 20 year spin-up simulation and one with initial environmental concentrations set to zero. Each set of simulations consisted of two ten-year time slices representing the present (1990-2000) and future (2090-2100) climate conditions. The same POP emissions were applied in all simulations to ensure that the difference in predicted concentrations for each set of simulations only arises from the difference in climate input. DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulation model, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES A1B climate scenario. Under the applied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds was predicted to be up to 20% higher across the Northern Hemisphere. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic was predicted to be up to 39% higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBs was predicted to range from 14% lower to 17% higher depending on the congener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The results of this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emission history will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arctic environment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates the environmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climate scenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to the atmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degree counteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher mean temperature. The more dominant of these two processes depend on the physical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model studies have predicted that the effect of a changed climate on

  2. Specialization in plant-hummingbird networks is associated with species richness, contemporary precipitation and quaternary climate-change velocity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalsgaard, Bo; Magård, Else; Fjeldså, Jon


    patterns of contemporary biotic specialization and its drivers, we use network analysis to determine the degree of specialization in plant-hummingbird mutualistic networks sampled at 31 localities, spanning a wide range of climate regimes across the Americas. We found greater biotic specialization at lower...... latitudes, with latitude explaining 20-22% of the spatial variation in plant-hummingbird specialization. Potential drivers of specialization--contemporary climate, Quaternary climate-change velocity, and species richness--had superior explanatory power, together explaining 53-64% of the variation...... specialization. These results suggest that both ecological and evolutionary processes at Quaternary time scales can be important in driving large-scale geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization, at least for co-evolved systems such as plant-hummingbird networks....

  3. Changes in Arctic and Boreal ecosystems of North America: Integrating Recent Results from the Field, Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Models (United States)

    Goetz, S. J.; Rogers, B. M.; Mack, M. C.; Goulden, M.; Pastick, N. J.; Berner, L. T.; Fisher, J.


    The Arctic and boreal forest biomes have global significance in terms of climate feedbacks associated with land surface interactions with the atmosphere. Changes in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystem productivity and fire disturbance feedbacks have been well documented in recent years, but findings are often only locally relevant and are sometimes inconsistent among research teams. Part of these inconsistencies lie in utilization of different data sets and time periods considered. Integrated approaches are thus needed to adequately address changes in these ecosystems in order to assess consistency and variability of change, as well as ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency across spatial and temporal scales. Ultimately this can best be accomplished via multiple lines of evidence including remote sensing, field measurements and various types of data-constrained models. We will discuss some recent results integrating multiple lines of evidence for directional ecosystem change in the Arctic and boreal forest biomes of North America. There is increasing evidence for widespread spatial and temporal variability in Arctic and boreal ecosystem productivity changes that are strongly influenced by cycles of changing fire disturbance severity and its longer-term implications (i.e legacy effects). Integrated, multi-approach research, like that currently underway as part of the NASA-led Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (, is an effective way to capture the complex mechanisms that drive patterns and directionality of ecosystem structure and function, and ultimately determine feedbacks to environmental change, particularly in the context of global climate change. Additional ongoing ABoVE research will improve our understanding of the consequences of environmental changes underway, as well as increase our confidence in making projections of the ecosystem responses, vulnerability and resilience to change. ABoVE will also build a lasting legacy of

  4. Drivers of inter-annual variation and long-term change in High-Arctic spider species abundances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bowden, Joseph J.; Hansen, Oskar L. P.; Olsen, Kent


    Understanding how species abundances vary in space and time is a central theme in ecology, yet there are few long-term field studies of terrestrial invertebrate abundances and the determinants of their dynamics. This is particularly relevant in the context of rapid climate change occurring...... in the Arctic. Arthropods can serve as strong indicators of ecosystem change due to their sensitivity to increasing temperatures and other environmental variables. We used spider samples collected by pitfall trapping from three different habitats (fen, mesic and arid heath) in High-Arctic Greenland to assess...... interpretation of long-term trends. We used model selection to determine which climatic variables and/or previous years’ abundance best explained annual variation in species abundances over this period. We identified and used 28 566 adult spiders that comprised eight species. Most notably, the abundances of some...

  5. The Arctic Turn

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rahbek-Clemmensen, Jon


    In October 2006, representatives of the Arctic governments met in Salekhard in northern Siberia for the biennial Arctic Council ministerial meeting to discuss how the council could combat regional climate change, among other issues. While most capitals were represented by their foreign minister......, a few states – Canada, Denmark, and the United States – sent other representatives. There was nothing unusual about the absence of Per Stig Møller, the Danish foreign minister – a Danish foreign minister had only once attended an Arctic Council ministerial meeting (Arctic Council 2016). Møller......’s nonappearance did, however, betray the low status that Arctic affairs had in the halls of government in Copenhagen. Since the end of the Cold War, where Greenland had helped tie Denmark and the US closer together due to its geostrategically important position between North America and the Soviet Union, Arctic...

  6. Arctic Sea Level Change over the altimetry era and reconstructed over the last 60 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    The Arctic Ocean process severe limitations on the use of altimetry and tide gauge data for sea level studies and prediction due to the presence of seasonal or permanent sea ice. In order to overcome this issue we reprocessed all altimetry data with editing tailored to Arctic conditions, hereby m...... by Church and White (2004). We also find significant higher trend in the Beaufort Gyre region showing an increase in sea level over the last decade up to 2011....

  7. Identifying polar bear resource selection patterns to inform offshore development in a dynamic and changing Arctic (United States)

    Wilson, Ryan R.; Horne, Jon S.; Rode, Karyn D.; Regehr, Eric V.; Durner, George M.


    Although sea ice loss is the primary threat to polar bears (Ursus maritimus), little can be done to mitigate its effects without global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Other factors, however, could exacerbate the impacts of sea ice loss on polar bears, such as exposure to increased industrial activity. The Arctic Ocean has enormous oil and gas potential, and its development is expected to increase in the coming decades. Estimates of polar bear resource selection will inform managers how bears use areas slated for oil development and to help guide conservation planning. We estimated temporally-varying resource selection patterns for non-denning adult female polar bears in the Chukchi Sea population (2008–2012) at two scales (i.e., home range and weekly steps) to identify factors predictive of polar bear use throughout the year, before any offshore development. From the best models at each scale, we estimated scale-integrated resource selection functions to predict polar bear space use across the population's range and determined when bears were most likely to use the region where offshore oil and gas development in the United States is slated to occur. Polar bears exhibited significant intra-annual variation in selection patterns at both scales but the strength and annual patterns of selection differed between scales for most variables. Bears were most likely to use the offshore oil and gas planning area during ice retreat and growth with the highest predicted use occurring in the southern portion of the planning area. The average proportion of predicted high-value habitat in the planning area was >15% of the total high-value habitat for the population during sea ice retreat and growth and reached a high of 50% during November 2010. Our results provide a baseline on which to judge future changes to non-denning adult female polar bear resource selection in the Chukchi Sea and help guide offshore development in the region. Lastly, our study provides a

  8. Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic atmosphere (United States)

    Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Schlabach, M.; Manø, S.


    An extensive database of organochlorine (OC) pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring station at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994-2005) suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003-2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC) indicate a shift from primary sources, to more "weathered" secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from "new" sources.

  9. Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Becker


    Full Text Available An extensive database of organochlorine (OC pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring station at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB, and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994–2005 suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003–2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC indicate a shift from primary sources, to more "weathered" secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from "new" sources.

  10. Leptin and ghrelin in anadromous Arctic charr: cloning and change in expressions during a seasonal feeding cycle. (United States)

    Frøiland, Eirik; Murashita, Koji; Jørgensen, Even Hjalmar; Kurokawa, Tadahide


    Anadromous (sea-migrating) Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) display pronounced seasonal variations in food intake and growth and is an interesting model for studying mechanisms of appetite regulation. In this study cDNAs encoding for ghrelin (GHRL) and leptin (LEP) in Arctic charr were cloned, after which stomach GHRL and liver LEP mRNA expressions were examined by qPCR during a seasonal feeding cycle of semi-wild anadromous Arctic charr. The fish were captured as they returned from summer feeding in seawater and transferred to an indoor tank where they were fed in excess until October the year after. Growth rate was low in late winter, increased in late spring and reached a peak during summer, and then declined during autumn, when the fish became sexually mature. The changes in growth rate were associated with corresponding changes in the proportion of fish that had been eating at each sampling date, and whole body lipid status. Stomach GHRL mRNA expression was high in late winter, decreased to a nadir in mid-summer and increased again to a high level in early autumn. Liver LEP mRNA remained low during winter, spring and early summer, after which there was a gradual, 7-fold increase until October. The seasonal changes in ghrelin and leptin support a role of these hormones in the long-term regulation of energy homeostasis in the anadromous Arctic charr. It cannot be excluded, however, that the increase in liver leptin expression during autumn is related to sexual maturation.

  11. Rapid Environmental Change Drives Increased Land Use by an Arctic Marine Predator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd C Atwood

    Full Text Available In the Arctic Ocean's southern Beaufort Sea (SB, the length of the sea ice melt season (i.e., period between the onset of sea ice break-up in summer and freeze-up in fall has increased substantially since the late 1990s. Historically, polar bears (Ursus maritimus of the SB have mostly remained on the sea ice year-round (except for those that came ashore to den, but recent changes in the extent and phenology of sea ice habitat have coincided with evidence that use of terrestrial habitat is increasing. We characterized the spatial behavior of polar bears spending summer and fall on land along Alaska's north coast to better understand the nexus between rapid environmental change and increased use of terrestrial habitat. We found that the percentage of radiocollared adult females from the SB subpopulation coming ashore has tripled over 15 years. Moreover, we detected trends of earlier arrival on shore, increased length of stay, and later departure back to sea ice, all of which were related to declines in the availability of sea ice habitat over the continental shelf and changes to sea ice phenology. Since the late 1990s, the mean duration of the open-water season in the SB increased by 36 days, and the mean length of stay on shore increased by 31 days. While on shore, the distribution of polar bears was influenced by the availability of scavenge subsidies in the form of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus remains aggregated at sites along the coast. The declining spatio-temporal availability of sea ice habitat and increased availability of human-provisioned resources are likely to result in increased use of land. Increased residency on land is cause for concern given that, while there, bears may be exposed to a greater array of risk factors including those associated with increased human activities.

  12. Changing Arctic Ecosystems: Updated forecast: Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions required to improve polar bear outlook (United States)

    Oakley, Karen L.; Atwood, Todd C.; Mugel, Douglas N.; Rode, Karyn D.; Whalen, Mary E.


    The Arctic is warming faster than other regions of the world due to the loss of snow and ice, which increases the amount of solar energy absorbed by the region. The most visible consequence has been the rapid decline in sea ice over the last 3 decades-a decline projected to bring long ice-free summers if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are not significantly reduced. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice over the biologically productive continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean as a platform for hunting seals. In 2008, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) due to the threat posed by sea ice loss. The polar bear was the first species to be listed due to forecasted population declines from climate change.

  13. The Potential and Challenges of Using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP Sea Surface Salinity to Monitor Arctic Ocean Freshwater Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenqing Tang


    Full Text Available Sea surface salinity (SSS links various components of the Arctic freshwater system. SSS responds to freshwater inputs from river discharge, sea ice change, precipitation and evaporation, and oceanic transport through the open straits of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. However, in situ SSS data in the Arctic Ocean are very sparse and insufficient to depict the large-scale variability to address the critical question of how climate variability and change affect the Arctic Ocean freshwater. The L-band microwave radiometer on board the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP mission has been providing SSS measurements since April 2015, at approximately 60 km resolution with Arctic Ocean coverage in 1–2 days. With improved land/ice correction, the SMAP SSS algorithm that was developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL is able to retrieve SSS in ice-free regions 35 km of the coast. SMAP observes a large-scale contrast in salinity between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic Ocean, while retrievals within the Arctic Circle vary over time, depending on the sea ice coverage and river runoff. We assess the accuracy of SMAP SSS through comparative analysis with in situ salinity data collected by Argo floats, ships, gliders, and in field campaigns. Results derived from nearly 20,000 pairs of SMAP and in situ data North of 50°N collocated within a 12.5-km radius and daily time window indicate a Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD less than ~1 psu with a correlation coefficient of 0.82 and a near unity regression slope over the entire range of salinity. In contrast, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM has a smaller RMSD with Argo. However, there are clear systematic biases in the HYCOM for salinity in the range of 25–30 psu, leading to a regression slope of about 0.5. In the region North of 65°N, the number of collocated samples drops more than 70%, resulting in an RMSD of about 1.2 psu. SMAP SSS in the Kara Sea shows a consistent

  14. Mammalian herbivores confer resilience of Arctic shrub-dominated ecosystems to changing climate. (United States)

    Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Hoset, Katrine S; Olofsson, Johan


    Climate change is resulting in a rapid expansion of shrubs in the Arctic. This expansion has been shown to be reinforced by positive feedbacks, and it could thus set the ecosystem on a trajectory toward an alternate, more productive regime. Herbivores, on the other hand, are known to counteract the effects of simultaneous climate warming on shrub biomass. However, little is known about the impact of herbivores on resilience of these ecosystems, that is, the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still remain in the same regime, retaining the same function, structure, and feedbacks. Here, we investigated how herbivores affect resilience of shrub-dominated systems to warming by studying the change of shrub biomass after a cessation of long-term experimental warming in a forest-tundra ecotone. As predicted, warming increased the biomass of shrubs, and in the absence of herbivores, shrub biomass in tundra continued to increase 4 years after cessation of the artificial warming, indicating that positive effects of warming on plant growth may persist even over a subsequent colder period. Herbivores contributed to the resilience of these systems by returning them back to the original low-biomass regime in both forest and tundra habitats. These results support the prediction that higher shrub biomass triggers positive feedbacks on soil processes and microclimate, which enable maintaining the rapid shrub growth even in colder climates. Furthermore, the results show that in our system, herbivores facilitate the resilience of shrub-dominated ecosystems to climate warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. The Svalbard REU Program: Undergraduates Pursuing Arctic Climate Change Research on Svalbard, Norway (United States)

    Roof, S.; Werner, A.


    The Svalbard Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) program sponsored by the Arctic Natural Sciences Program of the National Science Foundation has been successfully providing international field research experiences since 2004. Each year, 7-9 undergraduate students have participated in 4-5 weeks of glacial geology and climate change fieldwork on Spitsbergen in the Svalbard archipelago in the North Atlantic (76- 80° N lat.). While we continue to learn new and better ways to run our program, we have learned specific management and pedagogical strategies that allow us to streamline our logistics and to provide genuine, meaningful research opportunities to undergraduate students. We select student participants after extensive nationwide advertising and recruiting. Even before applying to the program, students understand that they will be doing meaningful climate change science, will take charge of their own project, and will be expected to continue their research at their home institution. We look for a strong commitment of support from a student's advisor at their home institution before accepting students into our program. We present clear information, including participant responsibilities, potential risks and hazards, application procedures, equipment needed, etc on our program website. The website also provides relevant research papers and data and results from previous years, so potential participants can see how their efforts will contribute to growing body of knowledge. New participants meet with the previous years' participants at a professional meeting (our "REUnion") before they start their field experience. During fieldwork, students are expected to develop research questions and test their own hypotheses while providing and responding to peer feedback. Professional assessment by an independent expert provides us with feedback that helps us improve logistical procedures and shape our educational strategies. The assessment also shows us how

  16. Climate Change and Thawing Permafrost in Two Iñupiaq Communities of Alaska's Arctic: Observations, Implications, and Resilience (United States)

    Woodward, A.; Kofinas, G.


    For thousands of years the Iñupiat of northern Alaska have relied on ecosystems underlain by permafrost for material and cultural resources. As permafrost thaws across the Arctic, these social-ecological systems are changing rapidly. Community-based research and extensive local knowledge of Iñupiaq villagers offer unique and valuable contributions to understanding permafrost change and its implications for humans. We partnered with two Iñupiaq communities in Alaska's Arctic to investigate current and potential effects of thawing permafrost on social-ecological systems. Anaktuvuk Pass is situated on thaw-stable consolidated gravel in the Brooks Range, while Selawik rests on ice-rich permafrost in Beringia lowland tundra. Using the transdisciplinary approach of resilience theory and mixed geophysical and ethnographic methods, we measured active layer thaw depths and documented local knowledge about climate and permafrost change. Thaw depths were greater overall in Selawik. Residents of both communities reported a variety of changes in surface features, hydrology, weather, flora, and fauna that they attribute to thawing permafrost and / or climate change. Overall, Selawik residents described more numerous and extreme examples of such changes, expressed higher degrees of certainty that change is occurring, and anticipated more significant and negative implications for their way of life than did residents of Anaktuvuk Pass. Of the two villages, Selawik faces greater and more immediate challenges to the resilience of its social-ecological system as permafrost thaws.

  17. Soil microbial succession along a chronosequence on a High Arctic glacier foreland, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard: 10 years' change (United States)

    Yoshitake, Shinpei; Uchida, Masaki; Iimura, Yasuo; Ohtsuka, Toshiyuki; Nakatsubo, Takayuki


    Rapid glacial retreat in the High Arctic causes the expansion of new habitats, but the successional trajectories of soil microbial communities are not fully understood. We examined microbial succession along a chronosequence twice with a 10-year interval in a High Arctic glacier foreland. Soil samples were collected from five study sites with different ages and phospholipid fatty acids analysis was conducted to investigate the microbial biomass and community structure. Microbial biomass did not differ significantly between the two sampling times but tended to increase with the chronosequence and showed a significant correlation with soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content. Microbial community structure clearly differed along the chronosequence and was correlated with C and N content. The largest shift in community structure over 10 years was observed in the newly exposed sites after deglaciation. The accumulation of soil organic matter was regarded as an important determinant both of microbial biomass and community structure over the successional period. In contrast, the initial microbial community on the newly exposed soil changed rapidly even in the High Arctic, suggesting that some key soil processes such as C and N cycling can also shift within the relatively short period after rapid glacial retreat.

  18. Amplified North Atlantic Warming in the Late Pliocene by Changes in Arctic Gateways (United States)

    Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Jahn, A.; Feng, R.; Brady, E. C.; Hu, A.; Lofverstrom, M.


    Reconstructions of the late Pliocene (mid-Piacenzian, 3.3 - 3.0 million years ago) sea surface temperature (SST) find much warmer conditions in the North Atlantic than modern. The much warmer SSTs, up to 8.8°C from sites with good dating and replicates from several different types of proxies, have been difficult for climate models to reproduce. Even with the slow feedbacks of a reduced Greenland ice sheet and expansion of boreal forests to the Arctic Ocean over Canada and Eurasia, models cannot warm the North Atlantic sufficiently to match the reconstructed SSTs. An enhancement of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the late Pliocene, proposed as a possible mechanism based on ocean core records of δ13C, also is not present in the model simulations. Here, we present CESM simulations using a new reconstruction of late Pliocene paleogeography that has the Bering Strait (BS) and Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) Straits closed. We find that the closure of these small Arctic gateways strengthens the AMOC, by inhibiting freshwater (FW) transport from the Pacific to the Arctic Ocean and from the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea, leading to warmer sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The cutoff of the short export route through the CAA results in a more saline Labrador and south Greenland Sea with increased deep convection. At the same time, as all FW now leaves the Arctic east of Greenland, there is a freshening of and decreased deepwater formation in the Norwegian Sea. Overall, the AMOC strengthens. This past time period has implications for a future Earth under more responsible scenarios of emissions. Late Pliocene atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are estimated to have ranged between 350 and 450 ppmv and the paleogeography is relatively similar to modern. Our study indicates that the state of the Arctic gateways may influence the sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate in complex ways, and better understanding of the

  19. Variations in the Sensitivity of Shrub Growth to Climate Change along Arctic Environmental and Biotic Gradients (United States)

    Beck, P. S. A.; Myers-Smith, I. H.; Elmendorf, S.; Georges, D.


    Despite evidence of rapid shrub expansion at many Arctic sites and the profound effects this has on ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycling, and land-atmosphere feedbacks in the Arctic, the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. The compilation of 41,576 annual shrub growth measurements made around the Arctic, allowed for the first systematic evaluation of the climate sensitivity of Arctic shrub growth, i.e. the strength of the relationship between annual shrub growth and monthly climate variables. The growth measurements were taken on 1821 plants of 25 species at 37 arctic and alpine sites, either as annual ring widths or as stem increments. We evaluated climate sensitivity of shrub growth for each genus-by-site combination in this data set based on the performance and parameters of linear mixed models that used CRU TS3.21 climate data as predictors of shrub growth between 1950 and 2010. 76% of genus-by-site combinations showed climate sensitive growth, but climate-growth relationships varied with soil moisture, species canopy height, and geographic position within the species ranges. Shrubs growing at sites with more soil moisture showed greater climate sensitivity, suggesting that water availability might limit shrub growth if continued warming isn't matched by a steady increase in soil moisture. Tall shrub species growing at their northern range limit were particularly climate sensitive causing climate sensitivity of shrubs to peak at the transition between Low and High Arctic, where carbon storage in permafrost is greatest. Local and regional studies have documented matching spatial and temporal patterns in dendrochronological measurements and satellite observations of vegetation indices both in boreal and Arctic regions. Yet the circumarctic comparison of patterns in dendrochronological and remote sensing data sets yielded poor levels of agreement. In much of the Arctic, steep environmental gradients generate fine spatial patterns of vegetation

  20. Human-induced Arctic moistening. (United States)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis


    The Arctic and northern subpolar regions are critical for climate change. Ice-albedo feedback amplifies warming in the Arctic, and fluctuations of regional fresh water inflow to the Arctic Ocean modulate the deep ocean circulation and thus exert a strong global influence. By comparing observations to simulations from 22 coupled climate models, we find influence from anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in the space-time pattern of precipitation change over high-latitude land areas north of 55 degrees N during the second half of the 20th century. The human-induced Arctic moistening is consistent with observed increases in Arctic river discharge and freshening of Arctic water masses. This result provides new evidence that human activity has contributed to Arctic hydrological change.

  1. The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing. (United States)

    Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C; Scott, Jeffery R; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G; Bitz, Cecilia M


    In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

  2. The role of climate change in regulating Arctic permafrost peatland hydrological and vegetation change over the last millennium (United States)

    Zhang, Hui; Piilo, Sanna R.; Amesbury, Matthew J.; Charman, Dan J.; Gallego-Sala, Angela V.; Väliranta, Minna M.


    Climate warming has inevitable impacts on the vegetation and hydrological dynamics of high-latitude permafrost peatlands. These impacts in turn determine the role of these peatlands in the global biogeochemical cycle. Here, we used six active layer peat cores from four permafrost peatlands in Northeast European Russia and Finnish Lapland to investigate permafrost peatland dynamics over the last millennium. Testate amoeba and plant macrofossils were used as proxies for hydrological and vegetation changes. Our results show that during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Russian sites experienced short-term permafrost thawing and this induced alternating dry-wet habitat changes eventually followed by desiccation. During the Little Ice Age (LIA) both sites generally supported dry-hummock habitats, at least partly driven by permafrost aggradation. However, proxy data suggest that occasionally, MCA habitat conditions were drier than during the LIA, implying that evapotranspiration may create important additional eco-hydrological feedback mechanisms under warm conditions. All sites showed a tendency towards dry conditions as inferred from both proxies starting either from ca. 100 years ago or in the past few decades after slight permafrost thawing, suggesting that recent warming has stimulated surface desiccation rather than deeper permafrost thawing. This study shows links between two important controls over hydrology and vegetation changes in high-latitude peatlands: direct temperature-induced surface layer response and deeper permafrost layer-related dynamics. These data provide important backgrounds for predictions of Arctic permafrost peatlands and related feedback mechanisms. Our results highlight the importance of increased evapotranspiration and thus provide an additional perspective to understanding of peatland-climate feedback mechanisms.

  3. Effect of recent climate change on Arctic Pb pollution: A comparative study of historical records in lake and peat sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xiaodong; Jiang Shan; Zhang Pengfei; Xu Liqiang


    Historical changes of anthropogenic Pb pollution were reconstructed based on Pb concentrations and isotope ratios in lake and peat sediment profiles from Ny-Ålesund of Arctic. The calculated excess Pb isotope ratios showed that Pb pollution largely came from west Europe and Russia. The peat profile clearly reflected the historical changes of atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic Pb into Ny-Ålesund, and the result showed that anthropogenic Pb peaked at 1960s–1970s, and thereafter a significant recovery was observed by a rapid increase of 206 Pb/ 207 Pb ratios and a remarkable decrease in anthropogenic Pb contents. In contrast to the peat record, the longer lake record showed relatively high anthropogenic Pb contents and a persistent decrease of 206 Pb/ 207 Pb ratios within the uppermost samples, suggesting that climate-sensitive processes such as catchment erosion and meltwater runoff might have influenced the recent change of Pb pollution record in the High Arctic lake sediments. - Highlights: ► Historical changes of anthropogenic Pb pollution in Ny-Ålesund were reconstructed. ► Anthropogenic Pb in Ny-Ålesund was largely originated from W. European and Russia. ► Anthropogenic Pb recorded in peat sediments peaked at 1960–1970s and then declined. ► High anthropogenic fluxes were found in recent change of Pb record from lake sediments. ► Climate-sensitive processes might have influenced recent Pb accumulation rate in lakes. - This manuscript reports the effects of climate-sensitive processes on historical records of Pb pollution in sediments of Arctic lakes.

  4. Evolution of anomalies of salinity of surface waters of Arctic Ocean and their possible influence on climate changes (United States)

    Popov, A.; Rubchenia, A.


    Numerous of model simulations of ice extent in Arctic Ocean predict almost full disappearance of sea ice in Arctic regions by 2050. However, the nature, as against models, does not suffer the unidirectional processes. By means of various feedback responses system aspires to come in an equilibrium condition. In Arctic regions one of the most powerful generators of a negative feedback is the fresh-water stream to Greenland Sea and Northern Atlantic. Increasing or decreasing of a fresh-water volume from the Arctic basin to Greenland Sea and Northern Atlantic results in significant changes in climatic system. At the Oceanology department of Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) (St-Petersburg, Russia) in 2007, on the basis of the incorporated Russian-American database of the oceanographic data, reconstruction of long-term time series of average salinity of ocean surface was executed. The received time series describes the period from 1950 to 1993. For allocation of the processes determining formation of changes of average salinity of surface waters in Arctic basin the correlation analysis of interrelation of the received time series and several physical parameters which could affect formation of changes of salinity was executed. We found counter-intuitive result: formation of long-term changes of average salinity of surface waters of Arctic basin in the winter period does not depend on changes of a Siberian rivers runoff. Factors of correlation do not exceed -0,31. At the same time, clear inverse relationship of salinity of surface waters from volumes of the ice formed in flaw lead polynyas of the Siberian shelf seas is revealed. In this case factors of correlation change from -0,56 to -0,7. The maximum factor of correlation is -0,7. It characterizes interrelation of total volume of the ice formed in flaw lead polynyas of all seas of the Siberian shelf and average salinity of surface waters of Arctic basin. Thus, at increase of volumes of the ice formed in

  5. A lake-centric geospatial database to guide research and inform management decisions in an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska experiencing climate and land-use changes (United States)

    Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.; Whitman, Matthew S.; Nigro, Debora A.; Nitze, Ingmar; Beaver, John; Gadeke, Anne; Zuck, Callie; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Daanen, Ronald; Torvinen, Eric; Fritz, Stacey; Grosse, Guido


    Lakes are dominant and diverse landscape features in the Arctic, but conventional land cover classification schemes typically map them as a single uniform class. Here, we present a detailed lake-centric geospatial database for an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska. We developed a GIS dataset consisting of 4362 lakes that provides information on lake morphometry, hydrologic connectivity, surface area dynamics, surrounding terrestrial ecotypes, and other important conditions describing Arctic lakes. Analyzing the geospatial database relative to fish and bird survey data shows relations to lake depth and hydrologic connectivity, which are being used to guide research and aid in the management of aquatic resources in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Further development of similar geospatial databases is needed to better understand and plan for the impacts of ongoing climate and land-use changes occurring across lake-rich landscapes in the Arctic.

  6. Changing Arctic: A Strategic Analysis of United States Arctic Policy and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (United States)


    is below the constellation Ursa Minor, or the Great Bear . Hence, the word Arctic comes from the Greek word arktos or “ bear .” 7 The generally...13 David Curtis Wright , Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute., and Canadian Electronic Library (Firm), "The Panda ... Bear Readies to Meet the Polar Bear China and Canada’s Arctic Sovereignty Challenge," Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute, p. 4 67

  7. Impacts of Arctic precipitation changes on the downwelling limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katsman, C.A.; van der Sleen, N.; Bintanja, Richard; Selten, F.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne Mariken; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.


    According to the latest IPCC report, under the RCP 8.5 scenario precipitation in the Arctic region may increase by as much as 50%. The projected 21stcentury decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is attributed in part to this increase in precipitation and the associated

  8. Climate change and the loss of organic archaeological deposits in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollesen, Jørgen; Matthiesen, Henning; Møller, Anders Bjørn


    The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average with overlooked consequences for the preservation of the rich cultural and environmental records that have been stored for millennia in archaeological deposits. In this article, we investigate the oxic degradation of different types...

  9. Engaging Students in Science Courses: Lessons of Change from the Arctic (United States)

    Duffy, Lawrence K.; Godduhn, Anna; Fabbri, Cindy E.; van Muelken, Mary; Nicholas-Figueroa, Linda; Middlecamp, Catherine Hurt


    Where you live should have something to do with what you teach. In the Arctic, the idea of place-based education--teaching and sharing knowledge that is needed to live well--is central to the UARCTIC consortium and the 4th International Polar Year educational reform effort. A place-based issue oriented context can engage students in chemistry…

  10. Nitrogen fixation and diurnal changes of photosynthetic activity in Arctic soil crusts at different development stage

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pushkareva, E.; Kvíderová, Jana; Šimek, Miloslav; Elster, Josef


    Roč. 79, 1 March 2017 (2017), s. 21-30 ISSN 1164-5563 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 ; RVO:67985939 Keywords : Soil crust * Arctic * Photosynthetic activity Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour; EH - Ecology, Behaviour (BC-A) OBOR OECD: Ecology; Ecology (BC-A) Impact factor: 2.445, year: 2016

  11. AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean acidification (United States)


    This assessment report presents the results of the 2013 AMAP Assessment of Arctic Ocean Acidification (AOA). This is the first such assessment dealing with AOA from an Arctic-wide perspective, and complements several assessments that AMAP has delivered over the past ten years concerning the effects of climate change on Arctic ecosystems and people. The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) is a group working under the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council Ministers have requested AMAP to: - produce integrated assessment reports on the status and trends of the conditions of the Arctic ecosystems;

  12. Arctic circulation regimes. (United States)

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L


    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. © 2015 The Authors.

  13. Branch of bank, change of its status and its value in contemporary Czech banking system.


    Čížek, Martin


    This study concerns view of contemporary branch of bank. It shortly deals with history of bank branch in Czech environment after 1989. Further the study analyses its importance, advantages and disadvantages comparing direct banking - online banking in particular. The key point of the study is to answer the question if there is a future of branch of bank. Whether it will cooperate successfully with internet online channels of communication or it will be superseded by online banking at all.

  14. Effect of recent climate change on Arctic Pb pollution: a comparative study of historical records in lake and peat sediments. (United States)

    Liu, Xiaodong; Jiang, Shan; Zhang, Pengfei; Xu, Liqiang


    Historical changes of anthropogenic Pb pollution were reconstructed based on Pb concentrations and isotope ratios in lake and peat sediment profiles from Ny-Ålesund of Arctic. The calculated excess Pb isotope ratios showed that Pb pollution largely came from west Europe and Russia. The peat profile clearly reflected the historical changes of atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic Pb into Ny-Ålesund, and the result showed that anthropogenic Pb peaked at 1960s-1970s, and thereafter a significant recovery was observed by a rapid increase of (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios and a remarkable decrease in anthropogenic Pb contents. In contrast to the peat record, the longer lake record showed relatively high anthropogenic Pb contents and a persistent decrease of (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios within the uppermost samples, suggesting that climate-sensitive processes such as catchment erosion and meltwater runoff might have influenced the recent change of Pb pollution record in the High Arctic lake sediments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Arctic Newcomers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tonami, Aki


    Interest in the Arctic region and its economic potential in Japan, South Korea and Singapore was slow to develop but is now rapidly growing. All three countries have in recent years accelerated their engagement with Arctic states, laying the institutional frameworks needed to better understand...... and influence policies relating to the Arctic. But each country’s approach is quite different, writes Aki Tonami....

  16. The Arctic in the Twenty-First Century: Changing Biogeochemical Linkages across a Paraglacial Landscape of Greenland (United States)

    Anderson, N. John; Saros, Jasmine E.; Bullard, Joanna E.; Cahoon, Sean M. P.; McGowan, Suzanne; Bagshaw, Elizabeth A.; Barry, Christopher D.; Bindler, Richard; Burpee, Benjamin T.; Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Fowler, Rachel A.; Fox, Anthony D.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Giles, Madeleine E.; Hamerlik, Ladislav; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Law, Antonia C.; Mernild, Sebastian H.; Northington, Robert M.; Osburn, Christopher L.; Pla-Rabès, Sergi; Post, Eric; Telling, Jon; Stroud, David A.; Whiteford, Erika J.; Yallop, Marian L.; Yde, Jacob C.


    Abstract The Kangerlussuaq area of southwest Greenland encompasses diverse ecological, geomorphic, and climate gradients that function over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Ecosystems range from the microbial communities on the ice sheet and moisture-stressed terrestrial vegetation (and their associated herbivores) to freshwater and oligosaline lakes. These ecosystems are linked by a dynamic glacio-fluvial-aeolian geomorphic system that transports water, geological material, organic carbon and nutrients from the glacier surface to adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems. This paraglacial system is now subject to substantial change because of rapid regional warming since 2000. Here, we describe changes in the eco- and geomorphic systems at a range of timescales and explore rapid future change in the links that integrate these systems. We highlight the importance of cross-system subsidies at the landscape scale and, importantly, how these might change in the near future as the Arctic is expected to continue to warm. PMID:28596614

  17. Impact of North Atlantic Current changes on the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean


    Kauker, Frank; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Karcher, Michael; Köberle, Cornelia


    The impact of North Atlantic Current (NAC) volume, heat, and salt transport variability onto the NordicSeas and the Arctic Ocean is investigated using numerical hindcast and sensitivity experiments. Theocean-sea ice model reproduces observed propagation pathways and speeds of SST anomalies.Part of the signal reaching the entrance to the Nordic Seas between Iceland and Scotland originatesin the lower latitude North Atlantic. Response experiments with different prescribed conditionsat 50N show ...

  18. Extreme nitrogen deposition can change methane oxidation rate in moist acidic tundra soil in Arctic regions (United States)

    Lee, J.; Kim, J.; Kang, H.


    Recently, extreme nitrogen(N) deposition events are observed in Arctic regions where over 90% of the annual N deposition occurred in just a few days. Since Arctic ecosystems are typically N-limited, input of extremely high amount of N could substantially affect ecosystem processes. CH4 is a potent greenhouse gas that has 25 times greater global warming potential than CO2 over a 100-year time frame. Ammonium is known as an inhibitor of methane oxidation and nitrate also shows inhibitory effect on it in temperate ecosystems. However, effects of N addition on Arctic ecosystems are still elusive. We conducted a lab-scale incubation experiment with moist acidic tundra (MAT) soil from Council, Alaska to investigate the effect of extreme N deposition events on methane oxidation. Zero point five % methane was added to the head space to determine the potential methane oxidation rate of MAT soil. Three treatments (NH4NO3-AN, (NH4)2SO4-AS, KNO3-PN) were used to compare effects of ammonium, nitrate and salts. All treatments were added in 3 levels: 10μg N gd.w-1(10), 50μg N gd.w-1(50) and 100μg N gd.w-1(100). AN10 and AN50 increased methane oxidation rate 1.7, 6% respectively. However, AN100 shows -8.5% of inhibitory effect. In AS added samples, all 3 concentrations (AN10, AN50, AN100) stimulated methane oxidation rate with 4.7, 8.9, 4%, respectively. On the contrary, PN50 (-9%) and PN100 (-59.5%) exhibited a significant inhibitory effect. We also analyzed the microbial gene abundance and community structures of methane oxidizing bacteria using a DNA-based fingerprinting method (T-RFLP) Our study results suggest that NH4+ can stimulate methane oxidation in Arctic MAT soil, while NO3- can inhibit methane oxidation significantly.

  19. Biogeochemical Indicators in High- and Low-Arctic Marine and Terrestrial Avian Community Changes: Comparative Isotopic (13C, 15N, and 34S) Studies in Alaska and Greenland (United States)

    Causey, D.; Bargmann, N. A.; Burnham, K. K.; Burnham, J. L.; Padula, V. M.; Johnson, J. A.; Welker, J. M.


    Understanding the complex dynamics of environmental change in northern latitudes is of paramount importance today, given documented rapid shifts in sea ice, plant phenology, temperatures, deglaciation, and habitat fidelity. This knowledge is particularly critical for Arctic avian communities, which are integral components by which biological teleconnections are maintained between the mid and northern latitudes. Furthermore, Arctic birds are fundamental to Native subsistence lifestyles and a focus for conservation activities. Avian communities of marine and terrestrial Arctic environments represent a broad spectrum of trophic levels, from herbivores (eg., geese Chen spp.), planktivores (eg., auklets Aethia spp.), and insectivores (eg., passerines: Wheatears Oenanthe spp., Longspurs Calcarius spp.), to predators of marine invertebrates (eg., eiders Somateria spp.), nearshore and offshore fish (eg., cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, puffins Fratercula spp.), even other bird species (eg., gulls Larus spp., falcons Peregrinus spp.). This diversity of trophic interconnections is an integral factor in the dynamics of Arctic ecosystem ecology, and they are key indicators for the strength and trajectories of change. We are especially interested in their feeding ecology, using stable isotope-diet relations to examine historical diets and to predict future feeding ecology by this range of species. Since 2009, we have been studying the foodweb ecology using stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N, δ34S) of contemporaneous coastal and marine bird communities in High Arctic (Northwest Greenland) and Low Arctic (western Aleutian Islands, AK). We are quantifying the isotopic values of blood, organ tissues, and feathers, and have carried out comparisons between native and lipid-extracted samples. Although geographically distant, these communities comprise similar taxonomic and ecological congeners, including several species common to both (eg., Common Eider, Black-legged Kittiwake, Northern

  20. The US Arctic Observing Network - Mobilizing Interagency Observing Actions in an Era of Rapid Change (United States)

    Starkweather, S.


    US agencies have long relied upon sustained Arctic observing to achieve their missions, be they in support of long-term monitoring, operationalized forecasts, or long-term process studies. One inventory of Arctic observing activities ( suggests that there are more than 10,000 sustained data collection sites that have been supported by US agencies. Yet despite calls from academia (e.g. National Research Council, 2006) and agency leadership (e.g. IARPC, 2007) for more integrated approaches, such coherence - in the form of a US Arctic Observing Network (US AON) - has been slow and ad hoc in emerging. Two approaches have been invoked in systematically creating networks of greater coherence. One involves solving the "backward problem" or drawing existing observations into interoperable, multi-sensor, value-added data products. These approaches have the benefit that they build from existing assets and extend observations over greater time and space scales than individual efforts can approach. They suffer from being high-energy undertakings, often proceeding through voluntary efforts, and are limited by the observational assets already in place. Solving the "forward problem", or designing the network that is "needed" entails its own challenges of aligning multiple agency needs and capabilities into coordinated frameworks, often tied into a societal benefit structure. The solutions to the forward problem are greatly constrained by financial and technical feasibility. The benefit of such approaches is that interoperability and user-needs are baked into the network design, and some critical prioritization has been invoked. In September 2016, NOAA and other US agencies advanced plans to formally establish and fund the coordination of a US AON initiative. This US AON initiative brings new coordination capabilities on-line to support and strengthen US engagement in sustained and coordinated pan-Arctic observing and data sharing systems that serve

  1. Possible changes in the dose of biologically active ultraviolet radiation received by the biosphere in the summertime Arctic due to total ozone interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruzdev, Aleksandr N. (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation))


    Data for total ozone measurements since 1972 from the world ozone measuring network have been analyzed to study ozone interannual variability and estimate its possible effect on the UV-B dose received by the arctic biosphere. Possible interannual changes in the UV-B dose received by DNA associated with overall interannual ozone variability, as well as with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in total ozone were computed for different summer months. In general, the largest interannual variations in UV-B dose may occur in the Russian Arctic, whereas the possible variations in the Canadian Arctic are the smallest. Overall variations in the UV-B dose received by DNA can exceed 25% (2[sigma] criterion) in the Taimyr and Severnaya Zemlya for June and July, and 30% in the Laptev Sea for August. In the European sector of the Arctic, the possible variations are greater than 10%, and can exceed 15% in the north Norwegian Sea for July and 20% in Spitsbergen for August. Possible overall variations in the Canadian Arctic and Alaska are [<=]10%, reaching 15% in Alaska for August, however. The total ozone QBO can also cause essential and (statistically) predicted changes in UV-B radiation. In general, the UV-B dose received by DNA is found to be greater in the Arctic during the westerly phase of the QBO of the equatorial stratospheric wind at 50 mb level than during the easterly phase. The difference can reach or exceed 15% (relative to the mean value) in Taimyr for June and in Severnaya Zemlya for July and August. In northern Europe and Iceland, the difference can reach 10% for August. In the Canadian Arctic, the QBO-related effect is small. In Alaska, the appropriate difference in UV-B dose has an opposite sign for August, exceeding 5% in magnitude

  2. Radiative Transfer Modeling to Estimate the Impact of CDOM on Light Absorption within Changing Arctic Sea Ice (United States)

    Carns, R.; Light, B.; Frey, K. E.


    First-year sea ice differs from multi-year sea ice in several ways that can influence its optical properties. It is thinner than multi-year ice, which tends to increase light transmission. Also, first-year ice retains higher brine volumes in comparison to more heavily drained multi-year ice, in isolated pockets and channels. During melt season, patterns of pond formation on first-year sea ice differ from those on multi-year ice. As first-year sea ice comprises an increasingly large fraction of Arctic sea ice, it becomes more important to understand how much sunlight reaches the ecosystems within the ice, and how those changing ecosystems can feed back into the transmission of light. Colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and chlorophyll within the ice can absorb light, heating the ice and reducing transmission to the ocean below. Light also encourages algal growth within the ice while degrading CDOM, creating complex feedbacks. We use radiative transfer models to determine the overall effect of colored dissolved organic matter on the light regime within sea ice, both on the overall amount of energy transmitted and on the spectral distribution of energy. Using models allows us to estimate the impact of varying CDOM levels on a wide range of sea ice types, improving our ability to respond to conditions in a rapidly changing Arctic and predict important phenomena such as algal blooms.

  3. Research for annual travel-route changes of reindeer living around the Arctic Circle using satellite remote sensing (United States)

    Suzuki, G.; Sakka, T.; Tashiro, T.; Kawamata, H.; Tatsuzawa, S.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.


    For a long time, nomads living in the Arctic Circle around Siberia have been making a living by hunting reindeer traditionally. Wild reindeer have a recurrent migration every year, however, the travel-route of reindeer has been changing recently, so the nomads cannot expect the route in their traditional experience. To support them, one of authors (Tatsuzawa) investigated the route by installing GPS transmitter to some reindeer. The reason of the changing route, however, remain unclear. Previous works indicated that the reason of changing the route must be a global warming, forest fires, thunders, and floods, but they only discuss only on the basis of measurements in specific area. The purpose of this study is to research why the arctic reindeer alter the travel route annually through 1) the annual change of vegetation (NDVI: normalized difference vegetation index) in reindeer ground, and through 2) the annual change of soil water content (mNDWI: modified normalized difference water index) which can be reflected precipitation near Lena river. First, we analyzed NDVI using MODIS images that can be observed over a wide area, filmed in July and August; the reindeer started to travel. We have compared the seasonal changes of the NDVI images with the trace obtained by GPS data from 2010 to 2012. Although NDVI images in July showed similar numerical values in every year, the satellite images taken at August 29 is annually different; NDVI values become lower (0.5 or less) when the reindeer travel to the north area in winter. This suggests that reindeer move to secure enough food in the end of summer. In contrast, mNDWI becomes high when the reindeer travel to the north area. The annual changes of the route may be related to the amount of rainfall.

  4. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Berg, M.P.; Callaghan, T.V.; Kirby-Lambert, C.; Bjerke, J.W.


    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect

  5. Pävi Naskali, Marjaana Seppänen & Shahnaj Begum (eds., Ageing, Wellbeing and Climate Change in the Arctic. An interdisciplinary analysis (London: Routledge, 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hermann Óskarsson


    Full Text Available Book review of: Pävi Naskali, Marjaana Seppänen and Shahnaj Begum (eds., Ageing, Wellbeing and Climate Change in the Arctic. An interdisciplinary analysis (London: Routledge’s series on advances in climate change research, 2015

  6. Advancing High Spatial and Spectral Resolution Remote Sensing for Observing Plant Community Response to Environmental Variability and Change in the Alaskan Arctic (United States)

    Vargas Zesati, Sergio A.

    The Arctic is being impacted by climate change more than any other region on Earth. Impacts to terrestrial ecosystems have the potential to manifest through feedbacks with other components of the Earth System. Of particular concern is the potential for the massive store of soil organic carbon to be released from arctic permafrost to the atmosphere where it could exacerbate greenhouse warming and impact global climate and biogeochemical cycles. Even though substantial gains to our understanding of the changing Arctic have been made, especially over the past decade, linking research results from plot to regional scales remains a challenge due to the lack of adequate low/mid-altitude sampling platforms, logistic constraints, and the lack of cross-scale validation of research methodologies. The prime motivation of this study is to advance observational capacities suitable for documenting multi-scale environmental change in arctic terrestrial landscapes through the development and testing of novel ground-based and low altitude remote sensing methods. Specifically this study addressed the following questions: • How well can low-cost kite aerial photography and advanced computer vision techniques model the microtopographic heterogeneity of changing tundra surfaces? • How does imagery from kite aerial photography and fixed time-lapse digital cameras (pheno-cams) compare in their capacity to monitor plot-level phenological dynamics of arctic vegetation communities? • Can the use of multi-scale digital imaging systems be scaled to improve measurements of ecosystem properties and processes at the landscape level? • How do results from ground-based and low altitude digital remote sensing of the spatiotemporal variability in ecosystem processes compare with those from satellite remote sensing platforms? Key findings from this study suggest that cost-effective alternative digital imaging and remote sensing methods are suitable for monitoring and quantifying plot to

  7. Shifts in identity and activity of methanotrophs in arctic lake sediments in response to temperature changes (United States)

    He, Ruo; Wooller, Matthew J.; Pohlman, John W.; Quensen, John; Tiedje, James M.; Leigh, Mary Beth


    Methane (CH4) flux to the atmosphere is mitigated via microbial CH4 oxidation in sediments and water. As arctic temperaturesincrease, understanding the effects of temperature on the activity and identity of methanotrophs in arctic lake sediments is importantto predicting future CH4 emissions. We used DNA-based stable-isotope probing (SIP), quantitative PCR (Q-PCR), andpyrosequencing analyses to identify and characterize methanotrophic communities active at a range of temperatures (4°C, 10°C,and 21°C) in sediments (to a depth of 25 cm) sampled from Lake Qalluuraq on the North Slope of Alaska. CH4 oxidation activitywas measured in microcosm incubations containing sediments at all temperatures, with the highest CH4 oxidation potential of37.5 mol g1 day1 in the uppermost (depth, 0 to 1 cm) sediment at 21°C after 2 to 5 days of incubation. Q-PCR of pmoA and ofthe 16S rRNA genes of type I and type II methanotrophs, and pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA genes in 13C-labeled DNA obtained bySIP demonstrated that the type I methanotrophs Methylobacter, Methylomonas, and Methylosoma dominated carbon acquisitionfrom CH4 in the sediments. The identity and relative abundance of active methanotrophs differed with the incubation temperature.Methylotrophs were also abundant in the microbial community that derived carbon from CH4, especially in the deeper sediments(depth, 15 to 20 cm) at low temperatures (4°C and 10°C), and showed a good linear relationship (R0.82) with the relativeabundances of methanotrophs in pyrosequencing reads. This study describes for the first time how methanotrophiccommunities in arctic lake sediments respond to temperature variations.

  8. Species interactions and response time to climate change: ice-cover and terrestrial run-off shaping Arctic char and brown trout competitive asymmetries (United States)

    Finstad, A. G.; Palm Helland, I.; Jonsson, B.; Forseth, T.; Foldvik, A.; Hessen, D. O.; Hendrichsen, D. K.; Berg, O. K.; Ulvan, E.; Ugedal, O.


    There has been a growing recognition that single species responses to climate change often mainly are driven by interaction with other organisms and single species studies therefore not are sufficient to recognize and project ecological climate change impacts. Here, we study how performance, relative abundance and the distribution of two common Arctic and sub-Arctic freshwater fishes (brown trout and Arctic char) are driven by competitive interactions. The interactions are modified both by direct climatic effects on temperature and ice-cover, and indirectly through climate forcing of terrestrial vegetation pattern and associated carbon and nutrient run-off. We first use laboratory studies to show that Arctic char, which is the world's most northernmost distributed freshwater fish, outperform trout under low light levels and also have comparable higher growth efficiency. Corresponding to this, a combination of time series and time-for-space analyses show that ice-cover duration and carbon and nutrient load mediated by catchment vegetation properties strongly affected the outcome of the competition and likely drive the species distribution pattern through competitive exclusion. In brief, while shorter ice-cover period and decreased carbon load favored brown trout, increased ice-cover period and increased carbon load favored Arctic char. Length of ice-covered period and export of allochthonous material from catchments are major, but contrasting, climatic drivers of competitive interaction between these two freshwater lake top-predators. While projected climate change lead to decreased ice-cover, corresponding increase in forest and shrub cover amplify carbon and nutrient run-off. Although a likely outcome of future Arctic and sub-arctic climate scenarios are retractions of the Arctic char distribution area caused by competitive exclusion, the main drivers will act on different time scales. While ice-cover will change instantaneously with increasing temperature

  9. Live from the Arctic (United States)

    Warnick, W. K.; Haines-Stiles, G.; Warburton, J.; Sunwood, K.


    For reasons of geography and geophysics, the poles of our planet, the Arctic and Antarctica, are places where climate change appears first: they are global canaries in the mine shaft. But while Antarctica (its penguins and ozone hole, for example) has been relatively well-documented in recent books, TV programs and journalism, the far North has received somewhat less attention. This project builds on and advances what has been done to date to share the people, places, and stories of the North with all Americans through multiple media, over several years. In a collaborative project between the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) and PASSPORT TO KNOWLEDGE, Live from the Arctic will bring the Arctic environment to the public through a series of primetime broadcasts, live and taped programming, interactive virtual field trips, and webcasts. The five-year project will culminate during the 2007-2008 International Polar Year (IPY). Live from the Arctic will: A. Promote global understanding about the value and world -wide significance of the Arctic, B. Bring cutting-edge research to both non-formal and formal education communities, C. Provide opportunities for collaboration between arctic scientists, arctic communities, and the general public. Content will focus on the following four themes. 1. Pan-Arctic Changes and Impacts on Land (i.e. snow cover; permafrost; glaciers; hydrology; species composition, distribution, and abundance; subsistence harvesting) 2. Pan-Arctic Changes and Impacts in the Sea (i.e. salinity, temperature, currents, nutrients, sea ice, marine ecosystems (including people, marine mammals and fisheries) 3. Pan-Arctic Changes and Impacts in the Atmosphere (i.e. precipitation and evaporation; effects on humans and their communities) 4. Global Perspectives (i.e. effects on humans and communities, impacts to rest of the world) In The Earth is Faster Now, a recent collection of comments by members of indigenous arctic peoples, arctic

  10. The Sinuosity of Atmospheric Circulation over North America and its Relationship to Arctic Climate Change and Extreme Events (United States)

    Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, F.; Martin, J. E.; Francis, J. A.


    Recent research has suggested a relationship between mid-latitude weather and Arctic amplification (AA) of global climate change via a slower and wavier extratropical circulation inducing more extreme events. To test this hypothesis and to quantify the waviness of the extratropical flow, we apply a novel application of the geomorphological concept of sinuosity (SIN) over greater North America. SIN is defined as the ratio of the curvilinear length of a geopotential height contour to the perimeter of its equivalent latitude, where the contour and the equivalent latitude enclose the same area. We use 500 hPa daily heights from reanalysis and model simulations to calculate past and future SIN. The circulation exhibits a distinct annual cycle of maximum SIN (waviness) in summer and a minimum in winter, inversely related to the annual cycle of zonal wind speed. Positive trends in SIN have emerged in recent decades during winter and summer at several latitude bands, generally collocated with negative trends in zonal wind speeds. High values of SIN coincide with many prominent extreme-weather events, including Superstorm Sandy. RCP8.5 simulations (2006-2100) project a dipole pattern of zonal wind changes that varies seasonally. In winter, AA causes inflated heights over the Arctic relative to mid-latitudes and an associated weakening (strengthening) of the westerlies north (south) of 40N. The AA signal in summer is strongest over upper-latitude land, promoting localized atmospheric ridging aloft with lighter westerlies to the south and stronger zonal winds to the north. The changes in wind speeds in both seasons are inversely correlated with SIN, indicating a wavier circulation where the flow weakens. In summer the lighter winds over much of the U. S. resemble circulation anomalies observed during extreme summer heat and drought. Such changes may be linked to enhanced heating of upper-latitude land surfaces caused by earlier snow melt during spring-summer.

  11. White Arctic vs. Blue Arctic: Making Choices (United States)

    Pfirman, S. L.; Newton, R.; Schlosser, P.; Pomerance, R.; Tremblay, B.; Murray, M. S.; Gerrard, M.


    As the Arctic warms and shifts from icy white to watery blue and resource-rich, tension is arising between the desire to restore and sustain an ice-covered Arctic and stakeholder communities that hope to benefit from an open Arctic Ocean. If emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere continue on their present trend, most of the summer sea ice cover is projected to be gone by mid-century, i.e., by the time that few if any interventions could be in place to restore it. There are many local as well as global reasons for ice restoration, including for example, preserving the Arctic's reflectivity, sustaining critical habitat, and maintaining cultural traditions. However, due to challenges in implementing interventions, it may take decades before summer sea ice would begin to return. This means that future generations would be faced with bringing sea ice back into regions where they have not experienced it before. While there is likely to be interest in taking action to restore ice for the local, regional, and global services it provides, there is also interest in the economic advancement that open access brings. Dealing with these emerging issues and new combinations of stakeholders needs new approaches - yet environmental change in the Arctic is proceeding quickly and will force the issues sooner rather than later. In this contribution we examine challenges, opportunities, and responsibilities related to exploring options for restoring Arctic sea ice and potential pathways for their implementation. Negotiating responses involves international strategic considerations including security and governance, meaning that along with local communities, state decision-makers, and commercial interests, national governments will have to play central roles. While these issues are currently playing out in the Arctic, similar tensions are also emerging in other regions.

  12. Assessment of the Ability of Contemporary Climate Models to Assess Adequately the Risk of Possible Regional Anomalies and Trends (United States)

    Mokhov, I. I.


    The results describing the ability of contemporary global and regional climate models not only to assess the risk of general trends of changes but also to predict qualitatively new regional effects are presented. In particular, model simulations predicted spatially inhomogeneous changes in the wind and wave conditions in the Arctic basins, which have been confirmed in recent years. According to satellite and reanalysis data, a qualitative transition to the regime predicted by model simulations occurred about a decade ago.

  13. Nitrate and Moisture Content of Broad Permafrost Landscape Features in the Barrow Peninsula: Predicting Evolving NO3 Concentrations in a Changing Arctic (United States)

    Arendt, C. A.; Heikoop, J. M.; Newman, B. D.; Wales, N. A.; McCaully, R. E.; Wilson, C. J.; Wullschleger, S.


    The geochemical evolution of Arctic regions as permafrost degrades, significantly impacts nutrient availability. The release of nitrogen compounds from permafrost degradation fertilizes both microbial decomposition and plant productivity. Arctic warming promotes permafrost degradation, causing geomorphic and hydrologic transitions that have the potential to convert saturated zones to unsaturated zones and subsequently alter the nitrate production capacity of permafrost regions. Changes in Nitrate (NO3-) content associated with shifting moisture regimes are a primary factor determining Arctic fertilization and subsequent primary productivity, and have direct feedbacks to carbon cycling. We have documented a broad survey of co-located soil moisture and nitrate concentration measurements in shallow active layer regions across a variety of topographic features in the expansive continuous permafrost region encompassing the Barrow Peninsula of Alaska. Topographic features of interest are slightly higher relative to surrounding landscapes with drier soils and elevated nitrate, including the rims of low centered polygons, the centers of flat and high centered polygons, the rims of young, old and ancient drain thaw lake basins and drainage slopes that exist across the landscape. With this information, we model the nitrate inventory of the Barrow Peninsula using multiple geospatial approaches to estimate total area cover by unsaturated features of interest and further predict how various drying scenarios increase the magnitude of nitrate produced in degrading permafrost regions across the Arctic. This work is supported by the US Department of Energy Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic.

  14. Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic. (United States)

    Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man


    This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

  15. Arctic Aerosols and Sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ingeborg Elbæk


    Since the Industrial Revolution, the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases has been increasing, leading to a rise in the global temperature. Particularly in the Arctic, climate change is having serious impact where the average temperature has increased almost twice as much as the global during......, ammonium, black carbon, and trace metals. This PhD dissertation studies Arctic aerosols and their sources, with special focus on black carbon, attempting to increase the knowledge about aerosols’ effect on the climate in an Arctic content. The first part of the dissertation examines the diversity...... of aerosol emissions from an important anthropogenic aerosol source: residential wood combustion. The second part, characterizes the chemical and physical composition of aerosols while investigating sources of aerosols in the Arctic. The main instrument used in this research has been the state...

  16. Isotopic investigation of contemporary and historic changes in penguin trophic niches and carrying capacity of the southern Indian ocean. (United States)

    Jaeger, Audrey; Cherel, Yves


    A temperature-defined regime shift occurred in the 1970s in the southern Indian Ocean, with simultaneous severe decreases in many predator populations. We tested a possible biological link between the regime shift and predator declines by measuring historic and contemporary feather isotopic signatures of seven penguin species with contrasted foraging strategies and inhabiting a large latitudinal range. We first showed that contemporary penguin isotopic variations and chlorophyll a concentration were positively correlated, suggesting the usefulness of predator δ¹³C values to track temporal changes in the ecosystem carrying capacity and its associated coupling to consumers. Having controlled for the Suess effect and for increase CO₂ in seawater, δ¹³C values of Antarctic penguins and of king penguins did not change over time, while δ¹³C of other subantarctic and subtropical species were lower in the 1970s. The data therefore suggest a decrease in ecosystem carrying capacity of the southern Indian Ocean during the temperature regime-shift in subtropical and subantarctic waters but not in the vicinity of the Polar Front and in southward high-Antarctic waters. The resulting lower secondary productivity could be the main driving force explaining the decline of subtropical and subantarctic (but not Antarctic) penguins that occurred in the 1970s. Feather δ¹⁵N values did not show a consistent temporal trend among species, suggesting no major change in penguins' diet. This study highlights the usefulness of developing long-term tissue sampling and data bases on isotopic signature of key marine organisms to track potential changes in their isotopic niches and in the carrying capacity of the environment.

  17. Isotopic investigation of contemporary and historic changes in penguin trophic niches and carrying capacity of the southern Indian ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrey Jaeger

    Full Text Available A temperature-defined regime shift occurred in the 1970s in the southern Indian Ocean, with simultaneous severe decreases in many predator populations. We tested a possible biological link between the regime shift and predator declines by measuring historic and contemporary feather isotopic signatures of seven penguin species with contrasted foraging strategies and inhabiting a large latitudinal range. We first showed that contemporary penguin isotopic variations and chlorophyll a concentration were positively correlated, suggesting the usefulness of predator δ¹³C values to track temporal changes in the ecosystem carrying capacity and its associated coupling to consumers. Having controlled for the Suess effect and for increase CO₂ in seawater, δ¹³C values of Antarctic penguins and of king penguins did not change over time, while δ¹³C of other subantarctic and subtropical species were lower in the 1970s. The data therefore suggest a decrease in ecosystem carrying capacity of the southern Indian Ocean during the temperature regime-shift in subtropical and subantarctic waters but not in the vicinity of the Polar Front and in southward high-Antarctic waters. The resulting lower secondary productivity could be the main driving force explaining the decline of subtropical and subantarctic (but not Antarctic penguins that occurred in the 1970s. Feather δ¹⁵N values did not show a consistent temporal trend among species, suggesting no major change in penguins' diet. This study highlights the usefulness of developing long-term tissue sampling and data bases on isotopic signature of key marine organisms to track potential changes in their isotopic niches and in the carrying capacity of the environment.

  18. Arctic warming, moisture increase and circulation changes observed in the Ny-Ålesund homogenized radiosonde record (United States)

    Maturilli, Marion; Kayser, Markus


    Radiosonde measurements obtained at the Arctic site Ny-Ålesund (78.9°N, 11.9°E), Svalbard, from 1993 to 2014 have been homogenized accounting for instrumentation discontinuities by correcting known errors in the manufacturer provided profiles. The resulting homogenized radiosonde record is provided as supplementary material at From the homogenized data record, the first Ny-Ålesund upper-air climatology of wind, temperature and humidity is presented, forming the background for the analysis of changes during the 22-year period. Particularly during the winter season, a strong increase in atmospheric temperature and humidity is observed, with a significant warming of the free troposphere in January and February up to 3 K per decade. This winter warming is even more pronounced in the boundary layer below 1 km, presumably amplified by mesoscale processes including e.g. orographic effects or the boundary layer capping inversion. Though the largest contribution to the increasing atmospheric water vapour column in winter originates from the lowermost 2 km, no increase in the contribution by specific humidity inversions is detected. Instead, we find an increase in the humidity content of the large-scale background humidity profiles. At the same time, the tropospheric flow in winter is found to occur less frequent from northerly directions and to the same amount more frequent from the South. We conclude that changes in the atmospheric circulation lead to an enhanced advection of warm and moist air from lower latitudes to the Svalbard region in the winter season, causing the warming and moistening of the atmospheric column above Ny-Ålesund, and link the observations to changes in the Arctic Oscillation.

  19. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassano, John [Principal Investigator


    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  20. Characteristics of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the Arctic outflow in Fram Strait: assessing the changes and fate of terrigenous CDOM in the Arctic Ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Granskog, M.A.; Stedmon, Colin; Dodd, P.A.


    Absorption coefficients of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were measured together with salinity, δ18O, and inorganic nutrients across the Fram Strait. A pronounced CDOM absorption maximum between 30 and 120 m depth was associated with river and sea ice brine enriched water, characteristic...... of the Arctic mixed layer and upper halocline waters in the East Greenland Current (EGC). The lowest CDOM concentrations were found in the Atlantic inflow. We show that the salinity-CDOM relationship is not suitable for evaluating conservative mixing of CDOM. The strong correlation between meteoric water...... and CDOM is indicative of the riverine/terrigenous origin of CDOM in the EGC. Based on CDOM absorption in Polar Water and comparison with an Arctic river discharge weighted mean, we estimate that a 49–59% integrated loss of CDOM absorption across 250–600 nm has occurred. A preferential removal...

  1. Characteristics of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the Arctic outflow in the Fram Strait: Assessing the changes and fate of terrigenous CDOM in the Arctic Ocean


    Granskog, M.A.; Stedmon, C.A.; Dodd, P.A.; Amon, R.M.W.; Pavlov, A.K.; de Steur, L.; Hansen, E.


    Absorption coefficients of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were measured together with salinity, delta O-18, and inorganic nutrients across the Fram Strait. A pronounced CDOM absorption maximum between 30 and 120 m depth was associated with river and sea ice brine enriched water, characteristic of the Arctic mixed layer and upper halocline waters in the East Greenland Current (EGC). The lowest CDOM concentrations were found in the Atlantic inflow. We show that the salinity-CDOM relati...

  2. The changing Arctic and its effects on the development of Norway and Russia's offshore oil-spill prevention policies (United States)

    Bouffard, T. J.


    Two very different nations are joined with a northern border and have worked together for decades to manage shared Arctic affairs, yet have very disparate approaches to policy development. Increased access to the Arctic and the push to develop its resources has also created a requirement for developing national policies to address the possibilities of oil spill response and remediation. Norway and Russia are the significant regional powers, with a shared arctic boundary, yet substantially differing approaches to policy development and implementation. We are exploring the variations in their approaches to Arctic offshore oil-spill policy development, in the context of policy informed by economic, social, and physical sciences.

  3. Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model (United States)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)


    The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is

  4. Contemporary psychological contracts : How both employer and employee are changing the employment relationship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Smissen, A.I.M.; Schalk, R.; Freese, C.


    The employment relationship between employer and employee has gone through fundamental changes in the last decades, influencing psychological contracts. It is unclear, however, exactly how psychological contracts are changing. This article offers a comprehensive model that focuses on two factors

  5. Monitoring the welfare of polar bear populations in a rapidly changing Arctic (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.; Duncan, Colleen G.; Patyk, Kelly A.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.


    Most programs for monitoring the welfare of wildlife populations support efforts aimed at reaching discrete management objectives, like mitigating conflict with humans. While such programs can be effective, their limited scope may preclude systemic evaluations needed for large-scale conservation initiatives, like the recovery of at-risk species. We discuss select categories of metrics that can be used to monitor how polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are responding to the primary threat to their long-term persistence—loss of sea ice habitat due to the unabated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG; e.g., CO2) concentrations—that can also provide information on ecosystem function and health. Monitoring key aspects of polar bear population dynamics, spatial behavior, health and resiliency can provide valuable insight into ecosystem state and function, and could be a powerful tool for achieving Arctic conservation objectives, particularly those that have transnational policy implications.

  6. Geospatial Analysis of Climate-Related Changes in North American Arctic Ecosystems and Implications for Terrestrial Flora and Fauna (United States)

    Amirazodi, S.; Griffin, R.


    Climate change induces range shifts among many terrestrial species in Arctic regions. At best, warming often forces poleward migration if a stable environment is to be maintained. At worst, marginal ecosystems may disappear entirely without a contiguous shift allowing migratory escape to similar environs. These changing migration patterns and poleward range expansion push species into higher latitudes where ecosystems are less stable and more sensitive to change. This project focuses on ecosystem geography and interspecies relationships and interactions by analyzing seasonality and changes over time in variables including the following: temperature, precipitation, vegetation, physical boundaries, population demographics, permafrost, sea ice, and food and water availability. Publicly available data from remote sensing platforms are used throughout, and processed with both commercially available and open sourced GIS tools. This analysis describes observed range changes for selected North American species, and attempts to provide insight into the causes and effects of these phenomena. As the responses to climate change are complex and varied, the goal is to produce the aforementioned results in an easily understood set of geospatial representations to better support decision making regarding conservation prioritization and enable adaptive responses and mitigation strategies.

  7. Evidence of recent changes in the ice regime of lakes in the Canadian High Arctic from spaceborne satellite observations (United States)

    Surdu, Cristina M.; Duguay, Claude R.; Fernández Prieto, Diego


    Arctic lakes, through their ice cover phenology, are a key indicator of climatic changes that the high-latitude environment is experiencing. In the case of lakes in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), many of which are ice covered more than 10 months per year, warmer temperatures could result in ice regime shifts. Within the dominant polar-desert environment, small local warmer areas have been identified. These relatively small regions - polar oases - with longer growing seasons and greater biological productivity and diversity are secluded from the surrounding barren polar desert. The ice regimes of 11 lakes located in both polar-desert and polar-oasis environments, with surface areas between 4 and 542 km2, many of unknown bathymetry, were documented. In order to investigate the response of ice cover of lakes in the CAA to climate conditions during recent years, a 15-year time series (1997-2011) of RADARSAT-1/2 ScanSAR Wide Swath, ASAR Wide Swath, and Landsat acquisitions were analyzed. Results show that melt onset occurred earlier for all observed lakes. With the exception of Lower Murray Lake, all lakes experienced earlier summer ice minimum and water-clear-of-ice (WCI) dates, with greater changes being observed for polar-oasis lakes (9-24 days earlier WCI dates for lakes located in polar oases and 2-20 days earlier WCI dates for polar-desert lakes). Additionally, results suggest that some lakes may be transitioning from a perennial/multiyear to a seasonal ice regime, with only a few lakes maintaining a multiyear ice cover on occasional years. Aside Lake Hazen and Murray Lakes, which preserved their ice cover during the summer of 2009, no residual ice was observed on any of the other lakes from 2007 to 2011.

  8. Sex- and habitat-specific responses of a high arctic willow, Salix arctica, to experimental climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, M.H.; Macdonald, S.E. [Univ. of Alberta, Dept. of Renewable Resources, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Henry, G.H.R. [Univ. of British Columbia, Dept. of Geography, Vancouver, BC (Canada)


    Dioecious plant species and those occupying diverse habitats may present special analytical problems to researchers examining effects of climate change. Here we report the results from two complementary studies designed to determine the importance of sex and habitat on gas exchange and growth of male and female individuals of a dioecious, circumpolar willow, Salix arctica, in the Canadian High Arctic. In field studies, male and female willows from dry and wet habitats were subjected to passively enhanced summer temperature ({approx} to 1.3 deg C) using small open-top chambers over three years. Peak season gas exchange varied significantly by willow sex and habitat. Overall net assimilation was higher in the dry habitat than in the wet, and higher in females than in males. In the dry habitat, net assimilation of females was enhanced by experimental warming, but decreased in males. In the wet habitat, net assimilation of females was substantially depressed by experimental warming, while males showed an inconsistent response. Development and growth of male and female catkins were enhanced by elevated temperature more than leaf fascicles, but leaf fascicle development and growth varied more between the two habitats, particularly in males. In a controlled environment study, male and female willows from these same wet and dry habitats were grown in a 2x2 factorial experiment including 1 x or 2 x ambient [CO{sub 2}] and 5 or 12 deg. C. The sexes responded very differently to the experimental treatments, but we found no effect of original habitat. Net assimilation in males was affected by the interaction of temperature and CO{sub 2}, but in females by CO{sub 2} only. Our results demonstrate (a) significant intraspecific and intersexual differences in arctic willow physiology and growth, (b) that these differences are affected by environmental conditions expected to accompany global climate change, and (c) that sex- and habitat-specific responses should be explicitly

  9. Changing Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions Impact Stream Chemistry and Ecology at the Arctic-Boreal Transition in Western Alaska (United States)

    Koch, J. C.; Carey, M.; O'Donnell, J.; Sjoberg, Y.; Zimmerman, C. E.


    The arctic-boreal transition zone of Alaska is experiencing rapid change related to unprecedented warming and subsequent loss of permafrost. These changes in turn may affect groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystem processes. While recent field and modeling studies have improved our understanding of hydrology in watersheds underlain by thawing permafrost, little is known about how these hydrologic shifts will impact bottom-up controls on stream food webs. To address this uncertainty, we are using an integrative experimental design to link GW-SW interactions to stream biogeochemistry and biota in 10 first-order streams in northwest Alaska. These study streams drain watersheds that span several gradients, including elevation, aspect, and vegetation (tundra vs. forest). We have developed a robust, multi-disciplinary data set to characterize GW-SW interactions and to mechanistically link GW-SW dynamics to water quality and the stream ecosystem. Data includes soil hydrology and chemistry; stream discharge, temperature, and inflow rates; water chemistry (including water isotopes, major ions, carbon concentration and isotopes, nutrients and chlorophyll-a), and invertebrate and fish communities. Stream recession curves indicate a decreasing rate later in the summer in some streams, consistent with seasonal thaw in lower elevation and south-facing catchments. Base cation and water isotope chemistry display similar impacts of seasonal thaw and also suggest the dominance of groundwater in many streams. Coupled with estimates of GW-SW exchange at point, reach, and catchment scales, these results will be used to predict how hydrology and water quality are likely to impact fish habitat and growth given continued warming at the arctic-boreal transition.

  10. Has contemporary climate change played a role in population declines of the lizard Ctenophorus decresii from semi-arid Australia? (United States)

    Walker, Samantha; Stuart-Fox, Devi; Kearney, Michael R


    Whilst contemporary climatic changes are small in magnitude compared to those predicted for the coming decades, they have already been linked to species range shifts and local extinctions. Elucidating the drivers behind species' responses to contemporary climate change will better inform management strategies for vulnerable and pest species alike. A recent proposal to explain worldwide local extinctions in lizards is that increasing maximum temperatures have constrained lizard activity time in the breeding season beyond extinction thresholds. Here we document a significant population decline and potential local extinction at the warm (northern) range margin of the tawny dragon, Ctenophorus decresii, a rock-dwelling lizard from the Flinders Ranges in semi-arid Australia. We developed and tested a biophysical model of tawny dragon thermoregulatory behaviour and drove the model with daily weather data for the period 1990-2009 across the Flinders Ranges. Our results indicate that potential annual activity time has likely increased over this period throughout the historic range, with within-season declines only in the summer months at the northern range limit. However, populations that have declined since 2000 have also likely experienced higher active body temperatures and more stringent retreat-site requirements (deeper crevices) than have regions where the species remains common, during a period of declining rainfall. Our laboratory estimates of thermal preference in this species were insensitive to altered nutritional and hydric state. Thus it is possible that recent population declines are linked to desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall. Our study illustrates that simple indices of the impact of climate warming on animals, such as activity restriction, may in fact reflect a variety of potential mechanisms whose ultimate outcome will be contingent on other factors such as water and shelter availability. Copyright © 2014

  11. Space-for-time substitution in predicting the state of picoplankton and nanoplankton in a changing Arctic Ocean (United States)

    Li, William K. W.; Carmack, Eddy C.; McLaughlin, Fiona A.; Nelson, R. John; Williams, William J.


    The Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly but there are no long-term time series observations on the state of the phytoplankton community that could allow a link to be made from physical/chemical pressures to the impact on marine ecosystems. Here, we test the idea that space-for-time (SFT) substitution might predict temporal change in the Canada Basin premised on differences in the present state of phytoplankton in other geographic zones, specifically the ratio in the abundance of picophytoplankton to nanophytoplankton (Pico:Nano). We compared the change in Pico:Nano observed in the Canada Basin from 2004 to 2012 to the different average states of this ratio in 26 other ocean ecological regions. Our results show that as upper ocean nitrate concentration changed in the Canada Basin from year to year, the concomitant change in Pico:Nano was statistically commensurate with the difference that this ratio exhibits between Longhurst ecological provinces in relation to nitrate concentration. Lower average concentration of nitrate in the upper water column is associated with a higher value of Pico:Nano, a result consistent with resource control of phytoplankton size structure in the ocean. We suggest that SFT substitution allows an explanation of temporal progression from spatial pattern as a test of mechanism, but such statistical prediction is not necessarily a projection of future states.

  12. Arctic Security

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Nils


    The inclusion of China, India, Japan, Singapore and Italy as permanent observers in the Arctic Council has increased the international status of this forum significantly. This chapter aims to explain the background for the increased international interest in the Arctic region through an analysis...

  13. Early land use and centennial scale changes in lake-water organic carbon prior to contemporary monitoring. (United States)

    Meyer-Jacob, Carsten; Tolu, Julie; Bigler, Christian; Yang, Handong; Bindler, Richard


    Organic carbon concentrations have increased in surface waters across parts of Europe and North America during the past decades, but the main drivers causing this phenomenon are still debated. A lack of observations beyond the last few decades inhibits a better mechanistic understanding of this process and thus a reliable prediction of future changes. Here we present past lake-water organic carbon trends inferred from sediment records across central Sweden that allow us to assess the observed increase on a centennial to millennial time scale. Our data show the recent increase in lake-water carbon but also that this increase was preceded by a landscape-wide, long-term decrease beginning already A.D. 1450-1600. Geochemical and biological proxies reveal that these dynamics coincided with an intensification of human catchment disturbance that decreased over the past century. Catchment disturbance was driven by the expansion and later cessation of widespread summer forest grazing and farming across central Scandinavia. Our findings demonstrate that early land use strongly affected past organic carbon dynamics and suggest that the influence of historical landscape utilization on contemporary changes in lake-water carbon levels has thus far been underestimated. We propose that past changes in land use are also a strong contributing factor in ongoing organic carbon trends in other regions that underwent similar comprehensive changes due to early cultivation and grazing over centuries to millennia.

  14. Atmospheric HCH concentrations over the Marine Boundary Layer from Shanghai, China to the Arctic Ocean: role of human activity and climate change. (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoguo; Lam, James C W; Xia, Chonghuan; Kang, Hui; Sun, Liguang; Xie, Zhouqing; Lam, Paul K S


    From July to September 2008, air samples were collected aboard the research expedition icebreaker XueLong (Snow Dragon) as part of the 2008 Chinese Arctic Research Expedition Program. Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) concentrations were analyzed in all of the samples. The average concentrations (± standard deviation) over the entire period were 33 ± 16, 5.4 ± 3.0, and 13 ± 7.5 pg m⁻³ for α-, β- and γ-HCH, respectively. Compared to previous studies in the same areas, total HCH (ΣHCH, the sum of α-, β-, and γ-HCH) levels declined by more than 10 × compared to those observed in the 1990s, but were approximately 4 × higher than those measured by the 2003 China Arctic Research Expedition, suggesting the increase of atmospheric ΣHCH recently. Because of the continuing use of lindane, ratios of α/γ-HCH showed an obvious decrease in North Pacific and Arctic region compared with those for 2003 Chinese Arctic Research Expedition. In Arctic, the level of α-HCH was found to be linked to sea ice distribution. Geographically, the average concentration of α-HCH in air samples from the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, neither of which contain sea ice, was 23 ± 4.4 pg m⁻³, while samples from the area covered by seasonal ice (∼75°N to ∼83°N), the so-called "floating sea ice region", contained the highest average levels of α-HCH at 48 ± 12 pg m⁻³, likely due to emission from sea ice and strong air-sea exchange. The lowest concentrations of α-HCH were observed in the pack ice region in the high Arctic covered by multiyear sea ice (∼83°N to ∼86°N). This phenomenon implies that the re-emission of HCH trapped in ice sheets and Arctic Ocean may accelerate during the summer as ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean decreases in response to global climate change.

  15. Social media and related technology:drivers of change in managing the contemporary sales force


    Moncrief, William C.; Marshall, Greg W.; Rudd, John M.


    The selling environment has undergone tremendous transformation over the past 2 decades. Perhaps the greatest change has centered on changes and advancements in technology. The latest dramatic change has been the rapidly increasing use of social media and other related technologies in the business-to-business realm. The sales world began the use of technology through the use of Web 1.0, which was primarily webpage oriented; now we see the world of social media as the paradigm of how firms sho...

  16. Observed microphysical changes in Arctic mixed-phase clouds when transitioning from sea ice to open ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Young


    Full Text Available In situ airborne observations of cloud microphysics, aerosol properties, and thermodynamic structure over the transition from sea ice to ocean are presented from the Aerosol-Cloud Coupling And Climate Interactions in the Arctic (ACCACIA campaign. A case study from 23 March 2013 provides a unique view of the cloud microphysical changes over this transition under cold-air outbreak conditions. Cloud base lifted and cloud depth increased over the transition from sea ice to ocean. Mean droplet number concentrations, Ndrop, also increased from 110 ± 36 cm−3 over the sea ice to 145 ± 54 cm−3 over the marginal ice zone (MIZ. Downstream over the ocean, Ndrop decreased to 63 ± 30 cm−3. This reduction was attributed to enhanced collision-coalescence of droplets within the deep ocean cloud layer. The liquid water content increased almost four fold over the transition and this, in conjunction with the deeper cloud layer, allowed rimed snowflakes to develop and precipitate out of cloud base downstream over the ocean. The ice properties of the cloud remained approximately constant over the transition. Observed ice crystal number concentrations averaged approximately 0.5–1.5 L−1, suggesting only primary ice nucleation was active; however, there was evidence of crystal fragmentation at cloud base over the ocean. Little variation in aerosol particle number concentrations was observed between the different surface conditions; however, some variability with altitude was observed, with notably greater concentrations measured at higher altitudes ( >  800 m over the sea ice. Near-surface boundary layer temperatures increased by 13 °C from sea ice to ocean, with corresponding increases in surface heat fluxes and turbulent kinetic energy. These significant thermodynamic changes were concluded to be the primary driver of the microphysical evolution of the cloud. This study represents the first investigation, using in situ

  17. Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003–2100 (United States)

    Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Rupp, T.S.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.


    In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003–2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1) vegetation changes following a changing fire regime, and (2) changes in snow cover duration. We used a spatially explicit dynamic vegetation model (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) to simulate changes in successional dynamics associated with fire under the future climate scenarios, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate changes in snow cover. Changes in summer heating due to the changes in the forest stand age distributions under future fire regimes showed a slight cooling effect due to increases in summer albedo (mean across climates of −0.9 W m−2 decade−1). Over this same time period, decreases in snow cover (mean reduction in the snow season of 4.5 d decade−1) caused a reduction in albedo, and a heating effect (mean across climates of 4.3 W m−2 decade−1). Adding both the summer negative change in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire regimes to the positive changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in the length of the snow season resulted in a 3.4 W m−2 decade−1 increase in atmospheric heating. These findings highlight the importance of gaining a better understanding of the influences of changes in surface albedo on atmospheric heating due to both changes in the fire regime and changes in snow cover duration.

  18. Early signs of range disjunction of submountainous plant species: an unexplored consequence of future and contemporary climate changes. (United States)

    Kuhn, Emilien; Lenoir, Jonathan; Piedallu, Christian; Gégout, Jean-Claude


    Poleward and upward species range shifts are the most commonly anticipated and studied consequences of climate warming. However, these global responses to climate change obscure more complex distribution change patterns. We hypothesize that the spatial arrangement of mountain ranges and, consequently, climatic gradients in Europe, will result in range disjunctions. This hypothesis was investigated for submountainous forest plant species at two temporal and spatial scales: (i) under future climate change (between 1950-2000 and 2061-2080 periods) at the European scale and (ii) under contemporary climate change (between 1914-1987 and 1997-2013 periods) at the French scale. We selected 97 submountainous forest plant species occurring in France, among which distribution data across Europe are available for 25 species. By projecting future distribution changes for the 25 submountainous plant species across Europe, we demonstrated that range disjunction is a likely consequence of future climate change. To assess whether it is already taking place, we used a large forest vegetation-plot database covering the entire French territory over 100 years (1914-2013) and found an average decrease in frequency (-0.01 ± 0.004) in lowland areas for the 97 submountainous species - corresponding to a loss of 6% of their historical frequency - along with southward and upward range shifts, suggesting early signs of range disjunctions. Climate-induced range disjunctions should be considered more carefully since they could have dramatic consequences on population genetics and the ability of species to face future climate changes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Arctic security and Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamnes, Rolf


    Global warming is one of the most serious threats facing mankind. Many regions and countries will be affected, and there will be many losers. The earliest and most intense climatic changes are being experienced in the Arctic region. Arctic average temperature has risen at twice the rate of the global average in the past half century. These changes provide an early indication for the world of the environmental and societal significance of global warming. For that reason, the Arctic presents itself as an important scientific laboratory for improving our understanding of the causes and patterns of climate changes. The rapidly rising temperature threatens the Arctic ecosystem, but the human consequences seem to be far less dramatic there than in many other places in the world. According to the U.S. National Intelligence Council, Russia has the potential to gain the most from increasingly temperate weather, because its petroleum reserves become more accessible and because the opening of an Arctic waterway could provide economic and commercial advantages. Norway might also be fortunate. Some years ago, the Financial Times asked: #Left Double Quotation Mark#What should Norway do about the fact that global warming will make their climate more hospitable and enhance their financial situation, even as it inflicts damage on other parts of the world?#Right Double Quotation Mark#(Author)

  20. Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate (United States)

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Grosse, Guido; Bondurant, Allen C.; Romanovksy, Vladimir E.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Parsekian, Andrew D.


    Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1 m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (2.4°C), with MABT above freezing 5 of the last 7 years. This is in comparison to slower rates of warming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.

  1. Long-term structural canopy changes sustain net photosynthesis per ground area in high arctic Vaccinium uliginosum exposed to changes in near-ambient UV-B levels. (United States)

    Boesgaard, Kristine S; Albert, Kristian R; Ro-Poulsen, Helge; Michelsen, Anders; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Schmidt, Niels M


    Full recovery of the ozone layer is not expected for several decades and consequently, the incoming level of solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B) will only slowly be reduced. Therefore to investigate the structural and photosynthetic responses to changes in solar UV-B we conducted a 5-year UV-B exclusion study in high arctic Greenland. During the growing season, the gas exchange (H₂O and CO₂) and chlorophyll-a fluorescence were measured in Vaccinium uliginosum. The leaf dry weight, carbon, nitrogen, stable carbon isotope ratio, chlorophyll and carotenoid content were determined from a late season harvest. The net photosynthesis per leaf area was on average 22% higher in 61% reduced UV-B treatment across the season, but per ground area photosynthesis was unchanged. The leaf level increase in photosynthesis was accompanied by increased leaf nitrogen, higher stomatal conductance and F(v)/F(m). There was no change in total leaf biomass, but reduction in total leaf area caused a pronounced reduction of specific leaf area and leaf area index in reduced UV-B. This demonstrates the structural changes to counterbalance the reduced plant carbon uptake seen per leaf area in ambient UV-B as the resulting plant carbon uptake per ground area was not affected. Thus, our understanding of long-term responses to UV-B reduction must take into account both leaf level processes as well as structural changes to understand the apparent robustness of plant carbon uptake per ground area. In this perspective, V. uliginosum seems able to adjust plant carbon uptake to the present amount of solar UV-B radiation in the High Arctic. Copyright © Physiologia Plantarum 2011.

  2. Farewell to Fiestas and Saints? Changing Catholic Practices in Contemporary Rural Oaxaca

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toomas Gross


    Full Text Available This article discusses recent changes in Catholic festivities, especially the system of fiestas in rural Mexico. The ethnographic focus of the discussion is on indigenous Zapotec communities of the State of Oaxaca. Collective religious practices in Mexican villages contribute to social cohesion. Fiestas commemorating patron saints of the villages play a particularly important role in (reconstructing communal identity and the feeling of collective belongingness. Various global processes like secularisation, integration of local economies into the capitalist market system, increasing out-migration from villages, and the rise of Protestantism have undermined the position of the Catholic Church in the region. The article scrutinises the changing organisation and role of fiestas in the communities, concluding that the impact of secularisation, migration and Protestantism in particular is not simple and always negative – these changes can actually invigorate certain dimensions of the fiestas.

  3. Paleolimnologic and modeling perspectives on the physical and ecological sensitivity of Arctic tundra lakes to temperature changes (United States)

    Daniels, W.; Russel, J.; Giblin, A. E.; Longo, W. M.; Morrill, C.; Holland-Stergar, P.; Rose, R.; Huang, Y.


    Temperatures are warming rapidly across the Arctic, with the potential to substantially alter freshwater ecosystem structure and functioning. Some important processes, such as allochthonous loading or carbon burial, may respond too slowly to observe in modern monitoring efforts, and therefore require alternative approaches to accurately assess. Here we analyze the physical and ecological sensitivity of Alaska tundra lakes to climate change through the lenses of paleolimnology and lake thermal modeling. We compare a 10,000 year long record of biomarker-inferred temperature change (leaf wax hydrogen isotopes) to independent indicators of lake primary production (chlorophyll a), algal community structure (diatom assemblages), and allochthonous inputs (XRF chemistry) from Lake E5 and Upper Capsule Lake near the Toolik Field Station in Alaska (69 °N, 150 °W). Temperatures varied on the order of 2-5 °C over the last 10,000 years, and warmed 1-2 °C during the post-industrial period. Shifts in diatom communities in both lakes reflect increased lake stratification and lake pH during warmer intervals of the Holocene. While lake stratification is a direct response to temperature, we propose that the pH response is due to a combination of two factors. First, an increase in the length of the ice-free season promotes ventilation of respired CO2 out of the lakes. Thermal modeling suggests that lake ice coverage changes by approximately 6-8 days/°C, and so we expect that ice-cover changed by as much as 3-4 weeks throughout the Holocene. Secondarily, sediment core calcium concentrations suggest increased base cation and alkalinity inputs during warmer periods, most likely due to the thermal-induced deepening of the soil active layer and enhanced carbonate rock weathering. Carbon and chlorophyll concentrations appear negatively correlated with temperature over most the Holocene, attributable to the temperature effect on organic matter respiration, although periods of enhanced

  4. Protestant Funerals in Contemporary Xiamen : Change, Resistance, and Proselytizing in Urban China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Colijn, H.A.


    Following its designation as a Special Economic Zone in 1980, the Chinese island city of Xiamen has once again become an affluent urban center. This paper explores recent changes in discourse and practice in Xiamen’s historic Protestant community, focusing on funerals and how they could become major

  5. Arctic species resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Lars O.; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Jeppesen, Erik

    The peak of biological activities in Arctic ecosystems is characterized by a relative short and intense period between the start of snowmelt until the onset of frost. Recent climate changes have induced larger seasonal variation in both timing of snowmelt as well as changes mean temperatures......, an extensive monitoring program has been conducted in the North Eastern Greenland National Park, the Zackenberg Basic. The objective of the program is to provide long time series of data on the natural innate oscillations and plasticity of a High Arctic ecosystem. With offset in the data provided through...

  6. Change to earlier surgical interventions: contemporary management of unilateral vocal fold paralysis. (United States)

    Costello, Declan


    The management of unilateral vocal fold paralysis has undergone significant changes in the last 2 decades. This has largely been made possible by advances in endoscope technology and new injectable materials. This article will cover the main changes in management of patients with unilateral vocal fold paralysis and summarize the recent literature in relation to early intervention in this group. Several recent studies have suggested that early vocal fold injection medialization reduces the likelihood of needing open laryngeal framework surgery in future. Early injection medialization appears to give good long-term results with few complications and minimizes the need for future laryngeal framework surgery. It should be considered in centres wherein the equipment and trained staff are available.

  7. A laboratory investigation of colour changes in two contemporary resin composites on exposure to spices. (United States)

    Yew, H Z; Berekally, T L; Richards, L C


    The aim of this study was to evaluate colour stability upon exposure to spices of a nano-filled and a micro-hybrid resin composite finished either with Sof-Lex™ discs (SLD) or against plastic strips (PS). Forty cylindrical specimens of 3 mm thickness were fabricated from Filtek Supreme XT ™ (FS) and Gradia Direct X™ (GD). The top surface of each specimen was polished with SLD while the bottom surface was finished against PS. All samples were immersed in staining solutions (0.1% weight turmeric, paprika and tamarind) and distilled water at 37 °C. Colour after 0, 24, 72 and 168 hours of immersion was recorded with a reflection spectrophotometer using CIE L*a*b* parameters and the results were statistically analysed with repeated measures of ANOVA and Bonferroni post hoc tests. Among all the staining solutions tested, the highest colour deviation was obtained in the turmeric group. FS finished against PS showed significantly more colour changes compared to specimens polished with SLD, while GD finished against PS were found to be more resistant to colour changes. Within the limitations of this study all the spices tested have the potential to stain resin composites with turmeric causing the most significant discolouration. Micro-hybrid and nano-filled resin composites appeared to respond differently to staining by spices when either finished with PS or polished with SLD. © 2013 Australian Dental Association.

  8. Towards a tipping point in responding to change: rising costs, fewer options for Arctic and global societies. (United States)

    Huntington, Henry P; Goodstein, Eban; Euskirchen, Eugénie


    Climate change incurs costs, but government adaptation budgets are limited. Beyond a certain point, individuals must bear the costs or adapt to new circumstances, creating political-economic tipping points that we explore in three examples. First, many Alaska Native villages are threatened by erosion, but relocation is expensive. To date, critically threatened villages have not yet been relocated, suggesting that we may already have reached a political-economic tipping point. Second, forest fires shape landscape and ecological characteristics in interior Alaska. Climate-driven changes in fire regime require increased fire-fighting resources to maintain current patterns of vegetation and land use, but these resources appear to be less and less available, indicating an approaching tipping point. Third, rapid sea level rise, for example from accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet, will create a choice between protection and abandonment for coastal regions throughout the world, a potential global tipping point comparable to those now faced by Arctic communities. The examples illustrate the basic idea that if costs of response increase more quickly than available resources, then society has fewer and fewer options as time passes.

  9. Impact of Arctic sea-ice retreat on the recent change in cloud-base height during autumn (United States)

    Sato, K.; Inoue, J.; Kodama, Y.; Overland, J. E.


    Cloud-base observations over the ice-free Chukchi and Beaufort Seas in autumn were conducted using a shipboard ceilometer and radiosondes during the 1999-2010 cruises of the Japanese R/V Mirai. To understand the recent change in cloud base height over the Arctic Ocean, these cloud-base height data were compared with the observation data under ice-covered situation during SHEBA (the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean project in 1998). Our ice-free results showed a 30 % decrease (increase) in the frequency of low clouds with a ceiling below (above) 500 m. Temperature profiles revealed that the boundary layer was well developed over the ice-free ocean in the 2000s, whereas a stable layer dominated during the ice-covered period in 1998. The change in surface boundary conditions likely resulted in the difference in cloud-base height, although it had little impact on air temperatures in the mid- and upper troposphere. Data from the 2010 R/V Mirai cruise were investigated in detail in terms of air-sea temperature difference. This suggests that stratus cloud over the sea ice has been replaced as stratocumulus clouds with low cloud fraction due to the decrease in static stability induced by the sea-ice retreat. The relationship between cloud-base height and air-sea temperature difference (SST-Ts) was analyzed in detail using special section data during 2010 cruise data. Stratus clouds near the sea surface were predominant under a warm advection situation, whereas stratocumulus clouds with a cloud-free layer were significant under a cold advection situation. The threshold temperature difference between sea surface and air temperatures for distinguishing the dominant cloud types was 3 K. Anomalous upward turbulent heat fluxes associated with the sea-ice retreat have likely contributed to warming of the lower troposphere. Frequency distribution of the cloud-base height (km) detected by a ceilometer/lidar (black bars) and radiosondes (gray bars), and profiles of potential

  10. Changing Series: Narrative Models and the Role of the Viewer in Contemporary Television Seriality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronica Innocenti


    Full Text Available In the past few years television serial narratives have gone through some severe changes in the way they are organized from a narrative point of view, as well as in the way they are perceived by the audiences. Our article originates from the necessity of investigating the products of this new wave of serial production, with the purpose of focusing on narrative formulas and on the relationships that serial products establish with their users. Vast serialized narratives are not just texts anymore, they have become complex universes of meaning that last for long time and that have a strong influence on the audiences. The article aims to investigate serial narratives as usable objects, that are not just seen by the public, but that are part of a complex experience.

  11. [History of hypertension and of vascular risk: at the origins of change of contemporary medicine]. (United States)

    Postel-Vinay, N


    One hundred years ago arterial hypertension was not even mentioned in medical textbooks. In 1930 it was referred to as "a disease of civilisation". Today we know that it is largely responsible for cardiovascular deaths, the major cause of mortality in industrialized countries. Arterial hypertension is a singular disease entity. It is defined arbitrarily, it is closely linked to sociocultural factors and it has an enormous economic impact. Hypertension was recognized as a risk factor between the two World Wars. The driving force behind this recognition was financial rather than medical. The evolution of the understanding and management of hypertension reflects the profound changes that have affected twentieth century medicine. A Century of Arterial Hypertension reflects on the evolving concepts of hypertension over the past hunderd years and reveals an essential yet little-known facet of modern medicine. The originality, wealth of historical documents and bibliography will make this subject of interest not only to cardiologists and physicians in general, but to anyone who aspires to understand how modern medicine has achieved what it has.

  12. Contemporary Obstetric Triage. (United States)

    Sandy, Edward Allen; Kaminski, Robert; Simhan, Hygriv; Beigi, Richard


    The role of obstetric triage in the care of pregnant women has expanded significantly. Factors driving this change include the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act, improved methods of testing for fetal well-being, increasing litigation risk, and changes in resident duty hour guidelines. The contemporary obstetric triage facility must have processes in place to provide a medical screening examination that complies with regulatory statues while considering both the facility's maternal level of care and available resources. This review examines the history of the development of obstetric triage, current considerations in a contemporary obstetric triage paradigm, and future areas for consideration. An example of a contemporary obstetric triage program at an academic medical center is presented. A successful contemporary obstetric triage paradigm is one that addresses the questions of "sick or not sick" and "labor or no labor," for every obstetric patient that presents for care. Failure to do so risks poor patient outcome, poor patient satisfaction, adverse litigation outcome, regulatory scrutiny, and exclusion from federal payment programs. Understanding the role of contemporary obstetric triage in the current health care environment is important for both providers and health care leadership. This study is for obstetricians and gynecologists as well as family physicians. After completing this activity, the learner should be better able to understand the scope of a medical screening examination within the context of contemporary obstetric triage; understand how a facility's level of maternal care influences clinical decision making in a contemporary obstetric triage setting; and understand the considerations necessary for the systematic evaluation of the 2 basic contemporary obstetric questions, "sick or not sick?" and "labor or no labor?"

  13. Models of Plankton Community Changes during a Warm Water Anomaly in Arctic Waters Show Altered Trophic Pathways with Minimal Changes in Carbon Export

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Vernet


    Full Text Available Carbon flow through pelagic food webs is an expression of the composition, biomass and activity of phytoplankton as primary producers. In the near future, severe environmental changes in the Arctic Ocean are expected to lead to modifications of phytoplankton communities. Here, we used a combination of linear inverse modeling and ecological network analysis to study changes in food webs before, during, and after an anomalous warm water event in the eastern Fram Strait of the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC that resulted in a shift from diatoms to flagellates during the summer (June–July. The model predicts substantial differences in the pathways of carbon flow in diatom- vs. Phaeocystis/nanoflagellate-dominated phytoplankton communities, but relatively small differences in carbon export. The model suggests a change in the zooplankton community and activity through increasing microzooplankton abundance and the switching of meso- and macrozooplankton feeding from strict herbivory to omnivory, detritivory and coprophagy. When small cells and flagellates dominated, the phytoplankton carbon pathway through the food web was longer and the microbial loop more active. Furthermore, one step was added in the flow from phytoplankton to mesozooplankton, and phytoplankton carbon to higher trophic levels is available via detritus or microzooplankton. Model results highlight how specific changes in phytoplankton community composition, as expected in a climate change scenario, do not necessarily lead to a reduction in carbon export.

  14. Emission Changes Dwarf the Influence of Feeding Habits on Temporal Trends of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in Two Arctic Top Predators. (United States)

    Routti, Heli; Aars, Jon; Fuglei, Eva; Hanssen, Linda; Lone, Karen; Polder, Anuschka; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Tartu, Sabrina; Welker, Jeffrey M; Yoccoz, Nigel G


    We monitored concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in relation to climate-associated changes in feeding habits and food availability in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) (192 plasma and 113 liver samples, respectively) sampled from Svalbard, Norway, during 1997-2014. PFASs concentrations became greater with increasing dietary trophic level, as bears and foxes consumed more marine as opposed to terrestrial food, and as the availability of sea ice habitat increased. Long-chained perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) in arctic foxes decreased with availability of reindeer carcasses. The ∼9-14% yearly decline of C 6-8 perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs) following the cease in C 6-8 PFSA precursor production in 2001 indicates that the peak exposure was mainly a result of atmospheric transport of the volatile precursors. However, the stable PFSA concentrations since 2009-2010 suggest that Svalbard biota is still exposed to ocean-transported PFSAs. Long-chain ocean-transported PFCAs increased 2-4% per year and the increase in C 12-14 PFCAs in polar bears tended to level off since ∼2009. Emerging short-chain PFASs showed no temporal changes. Climate-related changes in feeding habits and food availability moderately affected PFAS trends. Our results indicate that PFAS concentrations in polar bears and arctic foxes are mainly affected by emissions.

  15. Environmental and behavioral changes may influence the exposure of an Arctic apex predator to pathogens and contaminants (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.; Duncan, Colleen G.; Patyk, Kelly A.; Nol, Pauline; Rhyan, Jack; McCollum, Matthew; McKinney, Melissa A.; Ramey, Andy M.; Cerqueira-Cezar, Camila; Kwok, Oliver C H; Dubey, Jitender P; Hennager, S.G.


    Recent decline of sea ice habitat has coincided with increased use of land by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea (SB), which may alter the risks of exposure to pathogens and contaminants. We assayed blood samples from SB polar bears to assess prior exposure to the pathogens Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Coxiella burnetii, Francisella tularensis, and Neospora caninum, estimate concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and evaluate risk factors associated with exposure to pathogens and POPs. We found that seroprevalence of Brucella spp. and T. gondii antibodies likely increased through time, and provide the first evidence of exposure of polar bears to C. burnetii, N. caninum, and F. tularensis. Additionally, the odds of exposure to T. gondii were greater for bears that used land than for bears that remained on the sea ice during summer and fall, while mean concentrations of the POP chlordane (ΣCHL) were lower for land-based bears. Changes in polar bear behavior brought about by climate-induced modifications to the Arctic marine ecosystem may increase exposure risk to certain pathogens and alter contaminant exposure pathways.

  16. Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Niels Martin; Hardwick, Bess; Gilg, Olivier


    How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how they ...... that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems....

  17. Climate Change and International Competition: the US Army in the Arctic Environment (United States)


    climate change and its potential environmental and socio -economic impacts .”4 Three working groups provide...additional energy commodities and commercial ventures, including oil and gas exploration, mineral extraction, commercial shipping, tourism , and fishing...scientific data on the impact , nature, and rate of climate change and the resulting environmental and geopolitical consequences. The IPCC’s principal

  18. Toward understanding the role of the atmosphere in pan Arctic change and sea ice loss; an update on the status of focused campaigns under POLARCAT. (United States)

    Burkhart, J. F.; Bates, T.; Brock, C. A.; Clerbaux, C.; Crawford, J. H.; Dibb, J. E.; Elansky, N.; Ghan, S.; Hirdman, D.; Honrath, R. E.; Jacob, D. J.; Law, K.; Paris, J.; Quinn, P.; Schlager, H.; Singh, H. B.; Sodemann, H.; Stohl, A.


    Sea ice loss reached an extraordinary extent in 2007, decreasing in area more than 2.5 million square kilometres below the 1979 extent. Sea ice loss is one of many Arctic processes resulting from a warming climate. The dynamics of a changing Arctic system are particularly sensitive to climate change and filled with uncertainties and complex feedback mechanisms - most being simply unknown. During the International Polar Year (IPY) a number of international partnerships were formed to establish the Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport (POLARCAT). Under the umbrella of POLARCAT projects cooperated with national funding to undertake the most comprehensive assessment of air pollution impacts on the Arctic to date. In the spring and summer of 2008 more than 20 institutes from ten nations participated in intensive aircraft, ship, and station-based campaigns with accompanying efforts from the satellite and modelling communities to provide near real time products for mission planning and analysis. The campaigns provided an assessment of the role that tropospheric chemistry, aerosols, and transport play in the Arctic. The spring campaigns focused on anthropogenic pollution, while the summer campaigns targeted biomass burning. During the spring of 2008, over 80 flights were flown by five different aircraft as part of the ARCTAS, ISDAC, ARCPAC, and French POLARCAT campaigns, the ICEALOT campaign commissioned the R/V Knorr to travel over 12,000 km, and numerous specialty satellite and modelling products were developed with near real time distribution. These same products were again used for flight planning and forecasting in the summer when an additional 50+ flights were flown by the ARCTAS, French POLARCAT, Siberian YAK, and GRACE campaigns. Several ground based stations and the Siberian TROICA campaign also conducted intensive operating periods (IOPs). We present an overview of the

  19. Climate change consequences for terrestrial ecosystem processes in NW Greeland: Results from the High Arctic Biocomplexity project (United States)

    Welker, J. M.; Sullivan, P.; Rogers, M.; Sharp, E. D.; Sletten, R.; Burnham, J. L.; Hallet, B.; Hagedorn, B.; Czimiczk, C.


    Greenland is experiencing some of the fastest rates of climate warming across the Arctic including warmer summers and increases in snow fall. The effects of these new states of Greenland are however, uncertain especially for carbon, nitrogen and water biogeochemical processes, soil traits, vegetation growth patterns, mineral nutrition and plant ecophysiological processes. Since 2003 we have conducted a suite of observational and experimental measurements that have been designed to understand the fundamental nature of polar desert, polar semi-desert and fen landscapes in NW Greenland. In addition, we have established a suite of experiments to ascertain ecosystem responses to warming at multiple levels (~2030 and 2050), in conjunction with added summer rain; the consequences of added snow fall (ambient, intermediate and deep) and the effects of increases in nutrient additions (added N, P and N+P), which represent extreme warming conditions. We find that: a) the soil C pools are 6-fold larger than previously measured, b) extremely old C (up to ~30k bp) which has been buried by frost cracking and frost heaving is reaching the modern atmosphere, but in only trace amounts as measured by respired 14CO2, c) warming that simulates 2030, has only a small effect on net C sequestration but warming that simulates 2050 when combined with added summer rain, increases C sequestration by 300%, d) increases in N deposition almost immediately and completely changes the vegetation composition of polar semi-deserts shifting the NDVI values from 0.2 to 0.5 within 2 years. Our findings depict a system that is poised to contribute stronger feedbacks than previously expected as climates in NW Greenland change.

  20. Evidence of Climate Change (Global Warming) and Temperature Increases in Arctic Areas


    Eric Kojo Wu Aikins


    This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the...

  1. Squaring the Arctic Circle: connecting Arctic knowledge with societal needs (United States)

    Wilkinson, J.


    Over the coming years the landscape of the Arctic will change substantially- environmentally, politically, and economically. Furthermore, Arctic change has the potential to significantly impact Arctic and non-Arctic countries alike. Thus, our science is in-demand by local communities, politicians, industry leaders and the public. During these times of transition it is essential that the links between science and society be strengthened further. Strong links between science and society is exactly what is needed for the development of better decision-making tools to support sustainable development, enable adaptation to climate change, provide the information necessary for improved management of assets and operations in the Arctic region, and and to inform scientific, economic, environmental and societal policies. By doing so tangible benefits will flow to Arctic societies, as well as for non-Arctic countries that will be significantly affected by climate change. Past experience has shown that the engagement with a broad range of stakeholders is not always an easy process. Consequently, we need to improve collaborative opportunities between scientists, indigenous/local communities, private sector, policy makers, NGOs, and other relevant stakeholders. The development of best practices in this area must build on the collective experiences of successful cross-sectorial programmes. Within this session we present some of the outreach work we have performed within the EU programme ICE-ARC, from community meetings in NW Greenland through to sessions at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP Conferences, industry round tables, and an Arctic side event at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

  2. Arctic bioremediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lidell, B.V.; Smallbeck, D.R.; Ramert, P.C.


    Cleanup of oil and diesel spills on gravel pads in the Arctic has typically been accomplished by utilizing a water flushing technique to remove the gross contamination or excavating the spill area and placing the material into a lined pit, or a combination of both. Enhancing the biological degradation of hydrocarbon (bioremediation) by adding nutrients to the spill area has been demonstrated to be an effective cleanup tool in more temperate locations. However, this technique has never been considered for restoration in the Arctic because the process of microbial degradation of hydrocarbon in this area is very slow. The short growing season and apparent lack of nutrients in the gravel pads were thought to be detrimental to using bioremediation to cleanup Arctic oil spills. This paper discusses the potential to utilize bioremediation as an effective method to clean up hydrocarbon spills in the northern latitudes

  3. An Interdisciplinary Analysis of Physical-spatial Changes in Contemporary Markets and Business Centers of Iran with an Emphasis on Religious Texts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Raeesi


    Full Text Available In this research this question is addressed: are the physical-spatial changes in contemporary markets of Iran, as a pioneer in promoting the noble values of Islam, in accordance with Islamic principles and values? In this article, through an analysis of religious texts, using qualitative content analysis, four physical-spatial indicators are deduced for markets; these indicators include the need to mention spiritual truths in physical-spatial structure of market, avoiding the collective social spaces in the market, the alignment of physical market patterns with Islamic identity, and locating the market in meta-local situations. An interdisciplinary analysis was carried out which indicated that the decline in these indicators in contemporary markets is rooted in the contemporary intellectual foundations of the West, whose economic impacts have resulted in the liberal capitalist economic system; one of the most important features of this system is the promotion of the culture of consumerism and a decline in Islamic physical-spatial indicators in contemporary markets, which is in accordance with the requirements of this culture.

  4. Nest-site selection and nest success of an Arctic-breeding passerine, Smith's Longspur, in a changing climate (United States)

    McFarland, Heather R.; Kendall, Steve J.; Powell, Abby


    Despite changes in shrub cover and weather patterns associated with climate change in the Arctic, little is known about the breeding requirements of most passerines tied to northern regions. We investigated the nesting biology and nest habitat characteristics of Smith's Longspurs (Calcarius pictus) in 2 study areas in the Brooks Range of Alaska, USA. First, we examined variation in nesting phenology in relation to local temperatures. We then characterized nesting habitat and analyzed nest-site selection for a subset of nests (n = 86) in comparison with paired random points. Finally, we estimated the daily survival rate of 257 nests found in 2007–2013 with respect to both habitat characteristics and weather variables. Nest initiation was delayed in years with snow events, heavy rain, and freezing temperatures early in the breeding season. Nests were typically found in open, low-shrub tundra, and never among tall shrubs (mean shrub height at nests = 26.8 ± 6.7 cm). We observed weak nest-site selection patterns. Considering the similarity between nest sites and paired random points, coupled with the unique social mating system of Smith's Longspurs, we suggest that habitat selection may occur at the neighborhood scale and not at the nest-site scale. The best approximating model explaining nest survival suggested a positive relationship with the numbers of days above 21°C that an individual nest experienced; there was little support for models containing habitat variables. The daily nest survival rate was high (0.972–0.982) compared with that of most passerines in forested or grassland habitats, but similar to that of passerines nesting on tundra. Considering their high nesting success and ability to delay nest initiation during inclement weather, Smith's Longspurs may be resilient to predicted changes in weather regimes on the breeding grounds. Thus, the greatest threat to breeding Smith's Longspurs associated with climate change may be the loss of low

  5. Functional traits drive plant community and ecosystem response to global change across arctic and alpine environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chisholm, Chelsea Lee

    hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Here I found that competition is generally stronger in warmer climates, and that functional traits do not consistently predict growth across climate space. I also demonstrated that the inclusion of functional trait information as stabilizing niche differences in competition...... delayed in ice-rich areas. Finally, colleagues and I used an observational approach to assess changes in nutrient dynamics across replicated treeline transects in temperate regions around the globe, where we found consistent temperature-mediated changes in both ground-layer plant and soil nutrients across...

  6. Arctic bioremediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liddell, B.V.; Smallbeck, D.R.; Ramert, P.C.


    Cleanup of oil and diesel spills on gravel pads in the Arctic has typically been accomplished by utilizing a water flushing technique to remove the gross contamination or excavating the spill area and placing the material into a lined pit, or a combination of both. This paper discusses the potential to utilize bioremediation as an effective method to clean up hydrocarbon spills in the northern latitudes. Discussed are the results of a laboratory bioremediation study which simulated microbial degradation of hydrocarbon under arctic conditions

  7. The Response of Tundra to Biophysical Changes Ten Years Following the Anaktuvuk River Fire, Arctic Foothills, Alaska. (United States)

    Jones, B. M.; Miller, E. A.; Jandt, R.; Baughman, C. A.


    Ten years following a large and severe wildfire in the arctic foothills of the Brooks Range, Alaska, tundra is experiencing rapid biophysical changes. Plant communities are responding to primary disturbance by fire but also to ground-ice melt, terrain subsidence, and apparent increase in soil drainage or evapotranspiration.The Anaktuvuk River Fire burned about 104,000 ha in 2007, spreading over broad ranges in soils, topography, hydrography, and permafrost features. Fourteen marked transects were measured between 2008-2011 and again in 2017 for cover of ground-layer vegetation, tall shrub abundance, thaw depth, and soil properties. A complementary set of 11 reference transects surrounding the burn was also sampled.We observed much higher rates of thermokarst inside the burn than out. Even low severity burn areas experienced noticeable thaw subsidence. Mean annual ground temperature at 1 m depth has warmed 1.5°C relative to unburned tundra. In cases ice wedge troughs have deepened by more than 1 m in areas underlain by yedoma soils. Troughs were characterized by cracking soil and slumping tussocks, often into ponded water. Troughs and degraded ice features appear to be draining adjacent polygon centers leading to a general drying of the tundra. Tussockgrasses inside the burn continue to grow and flower vigorously, suggesting a continued flush of soil nutrients. Post-fire accumulation of organic material is generally fire greatly accelerates this succession. Records and observations suggest that lightning and ignitions are becoming more frequent north of the Brooks Range.Our monitoring of this burn over the last ten years reveals a story much more complicated than our team can tell, inviting involvement of other disciplines, particularly hydrology, soil and landform science, remote sensing, and wildlife and subsistence resource management.

  8. Bridging the Scientific and Indigenous Communities to Study Sea Ice Change in Arctic Alaska (United States)

    Mahoney, A. R.; Zappa, C. J.; Betcher, S. R.; Hauser, D.; Whiting, A.; Goodwin, J.; Harris, C.; Schaefer, B.; Schaefer, R.


    Ikaavik Sikukuun (Ice Bridges) is a newly-launched research partnership in Kotzebue, Alaska, that adopts an end-to-end community-based approach to study fundamental processes underlying the mechanisms and impacts of the changing sea ice in coastal Alaska. Under guidance from a local advisory council, we will use state-of-the-art observing techniques including long-range unmanned aerial systems (UAS) to study under-observed sea ice regions during critical periods of marine mammal migration, molting and reproduction. Here, we describe what, to the best of our knowledge, is a precedent-setting approach to co-creating research questions and hypotheses that integrate indigenous knowledge (IK) and interdisciplinary scientific methods. A key element of this approach is that we established an advisory committee of local IK holders before defining specific research questions. This has enabled us to iteratively develop hypotheses that incorporate IK and respond to the research needs of the local community while also addressing key geophysical and ecological questions related to changes in the seasonal ice zone. The advisory committee will be key participants in the project team, ensuring that IK is incorporated into the design of the observing plan and the synthesis and dissemination of findings. In addition to building bridges between the scientific community and indigenous residents of Kotzebue, the legacy of our project will include a video documentary that will allow us to share the story of this partnership and our findings with a broad audience.

  9. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic


    on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict...

  10. Climate Change Influences on Species Interrelationships and Distributions in High-Arctic Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D. R., Klein; Bruun, H. H.; Lundgren, R.


    , reproduction, and dispersal of all life forms present. Climate-associated changes in the biotic communities of the region are altering inter-species interactions, notably pollination, seed dispersal and plant-herbivore relations. Sexual reproduction and dispersal of propagules, primarily seeds, are essential...... be of particular significance to long-distance seed dispersal. In Northeast Greenland, dispersal of viable seeds may frequently occur by passage through the guts of geese and musk oxen. Research at Zackenberg on the role of insects in pollination of flowering plants has shown that Diptera species, primarily flies...... Cassiope tetragona, and mountain avens Dryas octopetala are the primary species represented in the pollen present on pollinating insects at Zackenberg. The effects of climate warming that may enhance environmental conditions for plant growth in Northeast Greenland and accelerate invasion of new species...

  11. McCall Glacier record of Arctic climate change: Interpreting a northern Alaska ice core with regional water isotopes (United States)

    Klein, E. S.; Nolan, M.; McConnell, J.; Sigl, M.; Cherry, J.; Young, J.; Welker, J. M.


    We explored modern precipitation and ice core isotope ratios to better understand both modern and paleo climate in the Arctic. Paleoclimate reconstructions require an understanding of how modern synoptic climate influences proxies used in those reconstructions, such as water isotopes. Therefore we measured periodic precipitation samples at Toolik Lake Field Station (Toolik) in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range in the Alaskan Arctic to determine δ18O and δ2H. We applied this multi-decadal local precipitation δ18O/temperature regression to ∼65 years of McCall Glacier (also in the Brooks Range) ice core isotope measurements and found an increase in reconstructed temperatures over the late-20th and early-21st centuries. We also show that the McCall Glacier δ18O isotope record is negatively correlated with the winter bidecadal North Pacific Index (NPI) climate oscillation. McCall Glacier deuterium excess (d-excess, δ2H - 8*δ18O) values display a bidecadal periodicity coherent with the NPI and suggest shifts from more southwestern Bering Sea moisture sources with less sea ice (lower d-excess values) to more northern Arctic Ocean moisture sources with more sea ice (higher d-excess values). Northern ice covered Arctic Ocean McCall Glacier moisture sources are associated with weak Aleutian Low (AL) circulation patterns and the southern moisture sources with strong AL patterns. Ice core d-excess values significantly decrease over the record, coincident with warmer temperatures and a significant reduction in Alaska sea ice concentration, which suggests that ice free northern ocean waters are increasingly serving as terrestrial precipitation moisture sources; a concept recently proposed by modeling studies and also present in Greenland ice core d-excess values during previous transitions to warm periods. This study also shows the efficacy and importance of using ice cores from Arctic valley glaciers in paleoclimate reconstructions.

  12. Relationships between declining summer sea ice, increasing temperatures and changing vegetation in the Siberian Arctic tundra from MODIS time series (2000–11)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutrieux, L P; Bartholomeus, H; Herold, M; Verbesselt, J


    The concern about Arctic greening has grown recently as the phenomenon is thought to have significant influence on global climate via atmospheric carbon emissions. Earlier work on Arctic vegetation highlighted the role of summer sea ice decline in the enhanced warming and greening phenomena observed in the region, but did not contain enough details for spatially characterizing the interactions between sea ice, temperature and vegetation photosynthetic absorption. By using 1 km resolution data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) as a primary data source, this study presents detailed maps of vegetation and temperature trends for the Siberian Arctic region, using the time integrated normalized difference vegetation index (TI-NDVI) and summer warmth index (SWI) calculated for the period 2000–11 to represent vegetation greenness and temperature respectively. Spatio-temporal relationships between the two indices and summer sea ice conditions were investigated with transects at eight locations using sea ice concentration data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). In addition, the derived vegetation and temperature trends were compared among major Arctic vegetation types and bioclimate subzones. The fine resolution trend map produced confirms the overall greening (+1% yr −1 ) and warming (+0.27% yr −1 ) of the region, reported in previous studies, but also reveals browning areas. The causes of such local decreases in vegetation, while surrounding areas are experiencing the opposite reaction to changing conditions, are still unclear. Overall correlations between sea ice concentration and SWI as well as TI-NDVI decreased in strength with increasing distance from the coast, with a particularly pronounced pattern in the case of SWI. SWI appears to be driving TI-NDVI in many cases, but not systematically, highlighting the presence of limiting factors other than temperature for plant growth in the region. Further unravelling those limiting

  13. Spring Arctic Oscillation-East Asian summer monsoon connection through circulation changes over the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gong, Dao-Yi; Yang, Jing; Hu, Miao [Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing (China); Kim, Seong-Joong [Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon (Korea, Republic of); Gao, Yongqi [Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, IAP/CAS, Beijing (China); Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Guo, Dong [Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing (China); Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, IAP/CAS, Beijing (China); Zhou, Tianjun [State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), IAP/CAS, Beijing (China)


    In the present study the links between spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was investigated with focus on the importance of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). To reduce the statistical uncertainty, we analyzed high-pass filtered data with the inter-annual time scales, and excluded the El Nino/Southern Oscillation signals in the climate fields using a linear fitting method. The significant relationship between spring AO and EASM are supported by the changes of multi-monsoon components, including monsoon indices, precipitation, and three-dimensional atmospheric circulations. Following a stronger positive spring AO, an anomalous cyclonic circulation at 850 hPa appears in southeastern Asia and the western North Pacific in summer, with the easterly anomalies spanning from the Pacific to Asian continent along 25 N-30 N and the westerly anomalies south of 15 N. At the same time, the summer western North Pacific subtropical high becomes weaker. Consistently, the positive precipitation anomalies are developed over a broad region south of 30 N stretching from southern China to the western Pacific and the negative precipitation anomalies appear in the lower valley of the Yangtze River and southern Japan. The anomalous cyclone in the western North Pacific persisting from spring to summer plays a key role in modulating EASM and monsoon precipitation by a positive air-sea feedback mechanism. During spring the AO-associated atmospheric circulation change produces warmer SSTs between 150 E-180 near the equator. The anomalous sensible and latent heating, in turn, intensifies the cyclone through a Gill-type response of the atmosphere. Through this positive feedback, the tropical atmosphere and SST patterns sustain their strength from spring to summer, that consequently modifies the monsoon trough and the western North Pacific subtropical high and eventually the EASM precipitation. Moreover, the SST response to

  14. The Siberian High and Arctic Sea Ice: Long-term Climate Change and Impacts on Air Pollution during Wintertime in China (United States)

    Long, X.; Zhao, S.; Feng, T.; Tie, X.; Li, G.


    China has undergone severe air pollution during wintertime as national industrialization and urbanization have been increasingly developed in the past three decades. It has been suggested that high emission and adverse weather patterns contribute to wintertime air pollution. Recent studies propose that climate change and Arctic sea ice loss likely lead to extreme haze events in winter. Here we use two reanalysis and observational datasets to present the trends of Siberian High (SH) intensity over Eurasia, and Arctic temperature and sea ice. The results show the Arctic region of Asia is becoming warming accompanied by a rapid decline of sea ice while Eurasia is cooling and SH intensity is gradually enhancing. Wind patterns induced by these changes cause straight westerly prevailing over Eurasia at the year of weak SH while strengthened northerly winds at the year of strong SH. Therefore, we utilize regional dynamical and chemical WRF-Chem model to determine the impact of SH intensity difference on wintertime air pollution in China. As a result, enhancing northerly winds at the year of strong SH rapidly dilute and transport air pollution, causing a decline of 50 - 400 µg m-3 PM2.5 concentrations relative to that at the year of weak SH. We also assess the impact of emission reduction to half the current level on air pollution. The results show that emission reduction by 50% has an equivalent impact as the variability of SH intensity. This suggests that climate change over Eurasia has largely offset the negative impact of emission on air pollution and it is urgently needed to take measures to mitigate air pollution. In view of current high emission scenario in China, it will be a long way to effectively mitigate, or ultimately prevent wintertime air pollution.

  15. Determining hydrological changes in a small Arctic treeline basin using cold regions hydrological modelling and a pseudo-global warming approach (United States)

    Krogh, S. A.; Pomeroy, J. W.


    Increasing temperatures are producing higher rainfall ratios, shorter snow-covered periods, permafrost thaw, more shrub coverage, more northerly treelines and greater interaction between groundwater and surface flow in Arctic basins. How these changes will impact the hydrology of the Arctic treeline environment represents a great challenge. To diagnose the future hydrology along the current Arctic treeline, a physically based cold regions model was used to simulate the hydrology of a small basin near Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada. The hydrological model includes hydrological processes such as snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, canopy interception of snow/rain and sublimation/evaporation, snowmelt energy balance, active layer freeze/thaw, infiltration into frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, horizontal flow through organic terrain and snowpack, subsurface flow and streamflow routing. The model was driven with weather simulated by a high-resolution (4 km) numerical weather prediction model under two scenarios: (1) control run, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions (2001-2013) and (2) future, using a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach based on the RCP8.5 projections perturbing the control run. Transient changes in vegetation based on recent observations and ecological expectations were then used to re-parameterise the model. Historical hydrological simulations were validated against daily streamflow, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness records, showing the model's suitability in this environment. Strong annual warming ( 6 °C) and more precipitation ( 20%) were simulated by the PGW scenario, with winter precipitation and fall temperature showing the largest seasonal increase. The joint impact of climate and transient vegetation changes on snow accumulation and redistribution, evapotranspiration, active layer development, runoff generation and hydrograph characteristics are analyzed and discussed.

  16. Thinking about change: Ibn Khaldūn´s and his contemporaries Historical analysis and mentalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calasso, Giovanna


    Full Text Available Starting from Ibn Khaldūn´s thoughts as expressed in the Muqaddima on change in history, on the use of analogy and comparison as instruments to make it recognizable and on the imperativeness of historical writing in the face of the great phenomena of change, the article proposes a reflection on this theme in the light of the history of mentalities. Ibn Khaldūn´s theoretical thinking, but also his different attitudes in the face of the on-going transformations in the societies with which he was familiar, are therefore compared with the mental attitudes of some other categories of his contempo-rary scholars, with particular reference to 8th/14th century Egypt. For example, the authors of Kutub al-bidaʻ and pilgrimage guides reacted in different ways towards the changes they perceived in both the religious and non-religious customs of the Moslem society examined in the framework of the mentalities and transformations which marked the historical period in which he lived.

    [fr] A partir des idées sur les changements dans l´historie exprimées par Ibn Khaldūn dans Muqaddima à propos de l´usage de l´analogie et la comparaison comme instruments pour les rendre reconnaissables et sur le caractère impératif de l´ecriture historique face au grand phénomène du changement, l´article suivant propose une réflexion sur ce sujet du point de vue de l´historie des mentalites. La pensée theorique d´Ibn Khaldūn, mais aussi ses differentes attitudes vis-á-vis des transformations en cours des societés qu´il connaissait , sont donc comparées aux attitudes mentales sur d´autres catégories d´erutites contemporains. avec una référence particulière a l´Egypte du siècle VIII/XIV. Par exemple, les auteurs de Kutub al-bidaʻ et des guides de pèlerinage réagirent de manière différente à propos des changements qu´ils percevaient dans les habitudes aussi bien religieuses que non religieuses de la soci

  17. Contemporary cryptography

    CERN Document Server

    Oppliger, Rolf


    Whether you're new to the field or looking to broaden your knowledge of contemporary cryptography, this newly revised edition of an Artech House classic puts all aspects of this important topic into perspective. Delivering an accurate introduction to the current state-of-the-art in modern cryptography, the book offers you an in-depth understanding of essential tools and applications to help you with your daily work. The second edition has been reorganized and expanded, providing mathematical fundamentals and important cryptography principles in the appropriate appendixes, rather than summarize

  18. Jan Fook: Social Work: Critical Theory and Practice & Karen Healy: Social Work Practices: Contemporary Perspectives on Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available In his recent book on the contemporary politics of social work, Powell (2001 nominates Jan Fook and Karen Healy as two Australian authors who have made significant contributions to the radical or critical social work tradition. I have chosen to review them together, as each, in different ways, attempts to achieve the same purpose. That is, they attempt to provide a convincing account for adopting a critical approach to practice in the contemporary conditions of the 21st century and, in doing so, re-invigorate the radical tradition of social work practice. My first comment, important for the readership of this international journal, is that both books easily 'travel' beyond the Australian context.

  19. Arctic Research Plan: FY2017-2021 (United States)

    Starkweather, Sandy; Jeffries, Martin O; Stephenson, Simon; Anderson, Rebecca D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Loehman, Rachel A.; von Biela, Vanessa R.


    The United States is an Arctic nation—Americans depend on the Arctic for biodiversity and climate regulation and for natural resources. America’s Arctic—Alaska—is at the forefront of rapid climate, environmental, and socio-economic changes that are testing the resilience and sustainability of communities and ecosystems. Research to increase fundamental understanding of these changes is needed to inform sound, science-based decision- and policy-making and to develop appropriate solutions for Alaska and the Arctic region as a whole. Created by an Act of Congress in 1984, and since 2010 a subcommittee of the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) in the Executive Office of the President, the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC) plays a critical role in advancing scientific knowledge and understanding of the changing Arctic and its impacts far beyond the boundaries of the Arctic. Comprising 14 Federal agencies, offices, and departments, IARPC is responsible for the implementation of a 5-year Arctic Research Plan in consultation with the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, the Governor of the State of Alaska, residents of the Arctic, the private sector, and public interest groups.

  20. Smiech ako moc a premeny človeka súčasnosti (The Laughter as a Power and Changes of Contemporary Human

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romana Javorčeková


    Full Text Available This article deals with the power of laugh as an expression of a human evoked by emotional, cognitive, physiological, and expressive changes which cause further changes in another person and society. Ambivalence is one of the basic characteristics of laugh which is why it cannot be fullly grasped in theory, even though it has been proved that joy expressed by laugh is the most universal emotion. Examples from movies serve well to observe laugh as a form of social gesture in contemporary society.

  1. Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Niels M.; Hardwick, Bess; Gilg, Olivier


    How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how...... they vary in time, and how they are changing with current environmental change: firstly, the high arctic interaction webs are much more complex than previously envisaged, and with a structure mainly dictated by its arthropod component. Secondly, the dynamics of species within these webs reflect changes...... that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems....

  2. Genomics of Arctic cod (United States)

    Wilson, Robert E.; Sage, George K.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Gravley, Megan C.; Menning, Damian; Talbot, Sandra L.


    identified species-specific markers and in conjunction with mitogenome data, identified an Arctic cod x Polar cod hybrid in western Canadian Beaufort Sea. Overall, the lack of genetic structure among Arctic cod within the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort seas of Alaska is concordant with the absence of geographic barriers to dispersal and typical among marine fishes. Arctic cod may exhibit a genetic pattern of isolation-by-distance, whereby populations in closer geographic proximity are more genetically similar than more distant populations. As this signal is only found between our two fartherest localities, data from populations elsewhere in the species’ global range are needed to determine if this is a general characteristic. Further, tests for selection suggested a limited role for natural selection acting on the mitochondrial genome of Arctic cod, but do not exclude the possibility of selection on genes involved in nuclear-mitogenome interactions. Unlike previous genetic assessment of Arctic cod sampled from the Chukchi Sea, the high levels of genetic diversity found in Arctic cod assayed in this study, across regions, suggests that the species in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas does not suffer from low levels of genetic variation, at least at neutral genetic markers. The large census size of Arctic cod may allow this species to retain high levels of genetic diversity. In addition, we discovered the presence of hybridization between Arctic and Polar cod (although low in frequency). Hybridization is expected to occur when environmental changes modify species distributions that result in contact between species that were previously separated. In such cases, hybridization may be an evolutionary mechanism that promotes an increase in genetic diversity that may provide species occupying changing environments with locally-adapted genotypes and, therefore, phenotypes. Natural selection can only act on the standing genetic variation present within a population. Therefore, given its

  3. Linking tree demography to climate change feedbacks: fire, larch forests, and carbon pools of the Siberian Arctic (United States)

    Alexander, H. D.; Loranty, M. M.; Natali, S.; Pena, H., III; Ludwig, S.; Spektor, V.; Davydov, S. P.; Zimov, N.; Mack, M. C.


    Fire severity is increasing in larch forests of the Siberian Arctic as climate warms, and initial fire impacts on tree demographic processes could be an especially important determinant of long-term forest structure and carbon (C) dynamics. We hypothesized that (1) larch forest regrowth post-fire is largely determined by residual soil organic layer (SOL) depth because of the SOL's role as a seedbed and thermal regulator, and (2) changes in post-fire larch recruitment impact C accumulation through stand density impacts on understory microclimate and permafrost thaw. We tested these hypotheses by (1) experimentally creating a soil burn severity gradient in a Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) forest near Cherskiy, Russia and (2) quantifying C pools across a stand density gradient within a 75-year old fire scar. From 2012-2015, we added larch seeds to plots burned at different severities and monitored recruitment along with permafrost and active layer (i.e., subject to annual freeze-thaw) conditions (SOL depth, temperature, moisture, and thaw depth). Across the density gradient, we inventoried larch trees and harvested ground-layer vegetation to estimate aboveground contribution to C pools. We quantified woody debris C pools and sampled belowground C pools (soil, fine roots, and coarse roots) in the organic + upper (0-10 cm) mineral soil. Larch recruits were rare in unburned and low severity plots, but a total of 6 new germinants m-2 were tallied in moderate and high severity plots during the study. Seedling survival for > 1 year was only 40 and 25% on moderate and high severity treatments, respectively, but yielded net larch recruitment of 2 seedlings m-2, compared to 0.3 seedlings m-2 on low severity plots. Density of both total and established recruits increased with decreasing residual SOL depth, which correlated with increased soil temperature, moisture, and thaw depth. At 75-year post-fire, total C pools increased with increased larch density, largely due to

  4. A Recommended Set of Key Arctic Indicators (United States)

    Stanitski, D.; Druckenmiller, M.; Fetterer, F. M.; Gerst, M.; Intrieri, J. M.; Kenney, M. A.; Meier, W.; Overland, J. E.; Stroeve, J.; Trainor, S.


    The Arctic is an interconnected and environmentally sensitive system of ice, ocean, land, atmosphere, ecosystems, and people. From local to pan-Arctic scales, the area has already undergone major changes in physical and societal systems and will continue at a pace that is greater than twice the global average. Key Arctic indicators can quantify these changes. Indicators serve as the bridge between complex information and policy makers, stakeholders, and the general public, revealing trends and information people need to make important socioeconomic decisions. This presentation evaluates and compiles more than 70 physical, biological, societal and economic indicators into an approachable summary that defines the changing Arctic. We divided indicators into "existing," "in development," "possible," and "aspirational". In preparing a paper on Arctic Indicators for a special issue of the journal Climatic Change, our group established a set of selection criteria to identify indicators to specifically guide decision-makers in their responses to climate change. A goal of the analysis is to select a manageable composite list of recommended indicators based on sustained, reliable data sources with known user communities. The selected list is also based on the development of a conceptual model that identifies components and processes critical to our understanding of the Arctic region. This list of key indicators is designed to inform the plans and priorities of multiple groups such as the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC), and the Arctic Council.

  5. The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Berger


    Full Text Available In the present work the Arctic sea ice in the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climates are analysed and compared on the basis of climate-model results from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2 and phase 3 (PMIP3. The PMIP3 models generally simulate smaller and thinner sea-ice extents than the PMIP2 models both for the pre-industrial and the mid-Holocene climate. Further, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 models all simulate a smaller and thinner Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial control climate. The PMIP3 models also simulate thinner winter sea ice than the PMIP2 models. The winter sea-ice extent response, i.e. the difference between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climate, varies among both PMIP2 and PMIP3 models. Approximately one half of the models simulate a decrease in winter sea-ice extent and one half simulates an increase. The model-mean summer sea-ice extent is 11 % (21 % smaller in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate simulations in the PMIP2 (PMIP3. In accordance with the simple model of Thorndike (1992, the sea-ice thickness response to the insolation change from the pre-industrial to the mid-Holocene is stronger in models with thicker ice in the pre-industrial climate simulation. Further, the analyses show that climate models for which the Arctic sea-ice responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are similar may simulate rather different sea-ice responses to the change in solar forcing between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial. For two specific models, which are analysed in detail, this difference is found to be associated with differences in the simulated cloud fractions in the summer Arctic; in the model with a larger cloud fraction the effect of insolation change is muted. A sub-set of the mid-Holocene simulations in the PMIP ensemble exhibit open water off the north-eastern coast of Greenland in summer, which can provide a fetch

  6. Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming (United States)

    Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Bjork; Noemie Boulanger-Lapointe; Elisabeth J. Cooper; Johannes H.C. Cornelissen; Thomas A. Day; Ellen Dorrepaal; Tatiana G. Elumeeva; Mike Gill; William A. Gould; John Harte; David S. Hik; Annika Hofgaard; David R. Johnson; Jill F. Johnstone; Ingijorg Svala Jonsdottir; Janet C. Jorgenson; Kari Klanderud; Julia A. Klein; Saewan Koh; Gaku Kudo; Mark Lara; Esther Levesque; Borgthor Magnusson; Jeremy L. May; Joel A. Mercado; Anders Michelsen; Ulf Molau; Isla H. Myers-Smith; Steven F. Oberbauer; Vladimir G. Onipchenko; Christian Rixen; Niels Martin Schmidt; Gaius R. Shaver; Marko J. Spasojevic; Pora Ellen Porhallsdottir; Anne Tolvanen; Tiffany Troxler; Craig E. Tweedie; Sandra Villareal; Carl-Henrik Wahren; Xanthe Walker; Patrick J. Webber; Jeffrey M. Welker; Sonja Wipf


    Temperature is increasing at unprecedented rates across most of the tundra biome1. Remote-sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity over much of the Arctic2,3, but plot-based evidence for vegetation transformation is not widespread. We analysed change in tundra vegetation surveyed between 1980 and 2010 in 158...

  7. Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic (United States)

    Shevnina, Elena; Kourzeneva, Ekaterina; Kovalenko, Viktor; Vihma, Timo


    Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010-2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.

  8. Demographic change, economic conditions, and subsistence salmon harvests in Alaska’s Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region


    Howe, E. Lance; Martin, Stephanie


    This paper addresses broad demographic and economic characteristics of the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region (AYK) of Alaska. AYK human population growth has generally been moderate over time. Because out-migration regularly exceeds in-migration, especially in the villages, population growth is mainly a product of natality. We anticipate future population growth patterns will be similar. In terms of regional characteristics, the linguistically and geographically distinct populations of the AYK re...

  9. Late Holocene climate and chemical change at high latitudes: case studies from contaminated sites in subarctic and arctic Canada (United States)

    Galloway, Jennifer M.; Cooney, Darryl; Crann, Carley; Falck, Hendrik; Howell, Dana; Jamieson, Heather; Macumber, Andrew; Nasser, Nawaf; Palmer, Michael; Patterson, R. Timothy; Parsons, Michael; Roe, Helen M.; Sanei, Hamed; Spence, Christopher; Stavinga, Drew; Swindles, Graeme T.


    Climate variability is occurring at unprecedented rates in northern regions of the Earth, yet little is known about the nature of this variability or its influence on chemical cycling in the environment, particularly in areas with a legacy of contamination from past resource development. We use a paleolimnological approach to reconstruct climate and chemical change over centuries and millennia at two sites in the mineral-rich Slave Geologic Province in Northern Canada heavily impacted by gold mining. Such an approach is necessary to define the cumulative effects of climate change on metal loading and can be used to define anthropogenic release of contaminants to support policy and regulation due to a paucity of long-term monitoring data. The Seabridge Gold Inc. Courageous Lake project is a gold exploration project 240 km north of Yellowknife in the central Northwest Territories, Arctic Canada. Mining operations took place within the claim area at the Tundra (1964-1968) and Salmita (1983-1987) mines. Giant Mine is located in the subarctic near the City of Yellowknife and mining at this site represents the longest continuous gold mining operation in Canada (1938 to 2002). Due to the refractory mineralogy of ore, gold was extracted from arsenopyrite by roasting, which resulted in release of substantial quantities of highly toxic arsenic trioxide to the environment. Arsenic (As) is also naturally elevated at these sites due its occurrence in Yellowknife Supergroup greenstone belts and surficial geologic deposits. To attempt to distinguish between geogenic and anthropogenic sources of As and characterize the role of climate change on metalloid mobility we used a freeze coring technology to capture lake sediments from the properties. Sediments were analyzed for sedimentary grain size and bulk geochemistry using ICP-MS to reconstruct climate and chemical change. Micropaleontological analyses are on-going. Interpretations of the physical, chemical, and biological archive

  10. Graduate training in Earth science across borders and disciplines: ArcTrain -"Processes and impacts of climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Canadian Arctic" (United States)

    Stein, Rüdiger; Kucera, Michal; Walter, Maren; de Vernal, Anne


    Due to a complex set of feedback processes collectively known as "polar amplification", the Arctic realm is expected to experience a greater-than-average response to global climate forcing. The cascades of feedback processes that connect the Arctic cryosphere, ocean and atmosphere remain incompletely constrained by observations and theory and are difficult to simulate in climate models. Our capacity to predict the future of the region and assess the impacts of Arctic change processes on global and regional environments hinges on the availability of interdisciplinary experts with strong international experience and understanding of the science/society interface. This is the basis of the International Research Training Group "Processes and impacts of climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Canadian Arctic - ArcTrain", which was initiated in 2013. ArcTrain aims to educate PhD students in an interdisciplinary environment that combines paleoclimatology, physical oceanography, remote sensing and glaciology with comprehensive Earth system modelling, including sea-ice and ice-sheet components. The qualification program for the PhD students includes joint supervision, mandatory research residences at partner institutions, field courses on land and on sea (Floating University), annual meetings and training workshops and a challenging structured training in expert skills and transferrable skills. Its aim is to enhance the career prospects and employability of the graduates in a challenging international job market across academic and applied sectors. ArcTrain is a collaborative project at the University of Bremen and the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven. The German part of the project is designed to continue for nine years and educate three cohorts of twelve PhD students each. The Canadian partners comprise a consortium of eight universities led by the GEOTOP cluster at the Université du Québec à Montréal and including

  11. Atmospheric Sb in the Arctic during the past 16,000 years: Responses to climate change and human impacts (United States)

    Krachler, Michael; Zheng, Jiancheng; Fisher, David; Shotyk, William


    Applying strict clean room procedures and sector field inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) methods, concentrations of Sb and Sc were determined in 57 sections of a 170.6-m-long ice core drilled on Devon Island, Arctic Canada, in 1999, providing a record of atmospheric Sb extending back 15,800 years. Natural background concentrations of Sb and Sc established during the period between 1300 years BP and 10,590 years BP averaged 0.08 ± 0.03 pg/g (N = 18) and 0.44 ± 0.20 pg/g (N = 17), respectively. Scandium, a conservative reference element, was used as a surrogate for mineral dust inputs. The Sb/Sc ratio of 0.13 ± 0.07 in these ancient ice samples is comparable to the corresponding ratio of 0.09 ± 0.03 in peat samples from Switzerland from circa 6000 to 9000 years BP, indicating that this natural background ratio might have a much broader validity. The natural background flux of Sb (0.7 ± 0.5 ng/m2/a) in the Arctic was approximately 500 times lower than that established in central Europe using peat cores. For comparison with background values, modern Sb fluxes calculated using 45 samples from a 5-m snow pit dug on Devon Island in 2004, reflecting 10 years of snow accumulation, yielded an average deposition rate of 340 ± 270 ng/m2/a (range: 20-1240 ng/m2/a) with pronounced accumulation of Sb during winter periods when air masses reaching the Arctic predominantly come from Eurasia. These data reveal that approximately 99.8% of the Sb deposited in the Arctic today originates from anthropogenic activities. Modern Sb enrichment factors averaged 25 (range: 8-121). The ice core provides evidence of Sb contamination dating from Phoenician/Greek, Roman, and medieval lead mining and smelting in Europe. Moreover, the ice core data indicate that anthropogenic sources of Sb have continuously dominated the atmospheric inputs to the Arctic for at least 700 years.

  12. Advancing NOAA NWS Arctic Program Development (United States)

    Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M. C.; Meyers, J. C.; Churma, M.; Thoman, R.


    Environmental changes in the Arctic require changes in the way the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) delivers hydrological and meteorological information to prepare the region's societies and indigenous population for emerging challenges. These challenges include changing weather patterns, changes in the timing and extent of sea ice, accelerated soil erosion due to permafrost decline, increasing coastal vulnerably, and changes in the traditional food supply. The decline in Arctic sea ice is opening new opportunities for exploitation of natural resources, commerce, tourism, and military interest. These societal challenges and economic opportunities call for a NOAA integrated approach for delivery of environmental information including climate, water, and weather data, forecasts, and warnings. Presently the NOAA Arctic Task Force provides leadership in programmatic coordination across NOAA line offices. National Weather Service (NWS) Alaska Region and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) provide the foundational operational hydro-meteorological products and services in the Arctic. Starting in 2016, NOAA's NWS will work toward improving its role in programmatic coordination and development through assembling an NWS Arctic Task Team. The team will foster ties in the Arctic between the 11 NWS national service programs in climate, water, and weather information, as well as between Arctic programs in NWS and other NOAA line offices and external partners. One of the team outcomes is improving decision support tools for the Arctic. The Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) currently has more than 1100 registered users, including NOAA staff and technical partners. The tool has been available online since 2013 ( ). The tool links trusted, recommended NOAA data and analytical capabilities to assess impacts of climate variability and climate change at local levels. A new capability currently being developed will

  13. Deciphering the impact of change on the driftwood cycle: contribution to the study of human use of wood in the Arctic (United States)

    Alix, Claire


    Driftwood that originates in the Siberian and North American boreal forest is the major source of wood to people in the treeless Arctic. It archives various kinds of data about climate, river flow, ocean and ice circulation, and other critical environmental and cultural characteristics in the north. Unlike wood in most other regions, it is often well preserved in arctic archaeological sites. The existence and renewal of driftwood are closely linked to specific climatic and ecological conditions that have changed through time (e.g., floods, river banks, storms, prevailing currents and winds, sea-ice circulation, etc.). These conditions differently affect the fall, circulation and delivery of driftwood to the coast, resulting in changes in abundance, distribution and intrinsic properties of the wood. Based on a review of existing literature supplemented by new data from Alaska, this paper details factors underlying the "dynamic of driftwood production" in terms of driftwood abundance and quality, and indigenous people's use of the resource. Oral history interviews in coastal and river communities of Alaska recorded knowledge on driftwood use and ecology. Driftwood samples were collected from accumulations along the northwest coast of Alaska and the south of the Chukotka Peninsula. Results show that the timing of treefall and river transport are crucial to the subsequent ocean circulation and may determine the size and quality of the wood. Ultimately, it conditions what coastal people could build or manufacture.

  14. Contemporary Trends in Land Surface Phenologies from the Aral Basin Suggest Weather- or Irrigation-Driven Changes in GPP not Land Cover Change (United States)

    Wright, C. K.; de Beurs, K.; Henebry, G. M.


    The transformation of the Aral Sea into the Aral Lakes is a startling example of anthropogenic environmental degradation. However, ongoing impacts of hydrologic modification and climatic change are occurring throughout the nearly 2 million km2 Aral Basin (AB), thus requiring synoptic, basin-wide monitoring of environmental trends. The MODIS 500m global land cover (LC) product is a potential source of such information in a data-sparse region like the AB. However, we find that it is particularly unstable in this arid/semi-arid region. For example, 25% of AB pixels change LC class between 2001 and 2005 versions of the global LC using the IGBP LC scheme. Here we present an alternate analysis of environmental trends in the AB using MODIS data at the same spatial resolution, but incorporating temporal information embedded within contemporary land surface phenologies (LSPs), in contrast to temporally delimited LC. NDVI time series from 2001-2008 were derived from 500m MODIS NBAR data (16-d composites every 8 d; MCD43A4). Focusing on the period from 1 March to 1 October, each pixel time series was comprised of 27 NDVI values per year (or 216 composites in total). Trend analysis using the nonparametric Seasonal Kendall test revealed a number of spatially coherent hotspots of highly significant (p<0.01) positive and negative trends in NDVI dynamics over the 2001-2008 interval. Relative to the 2001 and 2005 LC classifications, positive trends tended to coincide with the following transitions between IGBP classes: open shrub → closed shrub; grassland → {open shrub, cropland}; {open shrub, cropland/natural vegetation mix} → cropland. These findings suggest that apparent LC change events might be false-positives caused by weather-driven increases in GPP. In turn, negative trends were largely coincident with putative LC change to grassland from mostly woody classes: {closed shrub, open shrub, woody savanna, savanna, snow/ice, barren} → grassland. Here, potential false

  15. International Regulation of Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molenaar, E.J.

    Due in particular to the impacts of climate change, the adequacy of the international regulation of Central Arctic Ocean fisheries has come under increasing scrutiny in recent years. As shown in this article, however, international regulation of Central Arctic Ocean fisheries is by no means entirely

  16. Understanding how lake populations of arctic char are structured and function with special consideration of the potential effects of climate change: A multi-faceted approach. (United States)

    Budy, Phaedra; Luecke, Chris


    Size dimorphism in fish populations, both its causes and consequences, has been an area of considerable focus; however, uncertainty remains whether size dimorphism is dynamic or stabilizing and about the role of exogenous factors. Here, we explored patterns among empirical vital rates, population structure, abundance and trend, and predicted the effects of climate change on populations of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in two lakes. Both populations cycle dramatically between dominance by small (≤300 mm) and large (>300 mm) char. Apparent survival (Φ) and specific growth rates (SGR) were relatively high (40–96 %; SGR range 0.03–1.5 %) and comparable to those of conspecifics at lower latitudes. Climate change scenarios mimicked observed patterns of warming and resulted in temperatures closer to optimal for char growth (15.15 °C) and a longer growing season. An increase in consumption rates (28–34 %) under climate change scenarios led to much greater growth rates (23–34 %). Higher growth rates predicted under climate change resulted in an even greater predicted amplitude of cycles in population structure as well as an increase in reproductive output (Ro) and decrease in generation time (Go). Collectively, these results indicate arctic char populations (not just individuals) are extremely sensitive to small changes in the number of ice-free days. We hypothesize years with a longer growing season, predicted to occur more often under climate change, produce elevated growth rates of small char and act in a manner similar to a “resource pulse,” allowing a sub-set of small char to “break through,” thus setting the cycle in population structure.

  17. Understanding how lake populations of arctic char are structured and function with special consideration of the potential effects of climate change: a multi-faceted approach. (United States)

    Budy, Phaedra; Luecke, Chris


    Size dimorphism in fish populations, both its causes and consequences, has been an area of considerable focus; however, uncertainty remains whether size dimorphism is dynamic or stabilizing and about the role of exogenous factors. Here, we explored patterns among empirical vital rates, population structure, abundance and trend, and predicted the effects of climate change on populations of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in two lakes. Both populations cycle dramatically between dominance by small (≤300 mm) and large (>300 mm) char. Apparent survival (Φ) and specific growth rates (SGR) were relatively high (40-96%; SGR range 0.03-1.5%) and comparable to those of conspecifics at lower latitudes. Climate change scenarios mimicked observed patterns of warming and resulted in temperatures closer to optimal for char growth (15.15 °C) and a longer growing season. An increase in consumption rates (28-34%) under climate change scenarios led to much greater growth rates (23-34%). Higher growth rates predicted under climate change resulted in an even greater predicted amplitude of cycles in population structure as well as an increase in reproductive output (Ro) and decrease in generation time (Go). Collectively, these results indicate arctic char populations (not just individuals) are extremely sensitive to small changes in the number of ice-free days. We hypothesize years with a longer growing season, predicted to occur more often under climate change, produce elevated growth rates of small char and act in a manner similar to a "resource pulse," allowing a sub-set of small char to "break through," thus setting the cycle in population structure.

  18. U.S. Arctic research in a technological age

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, P.L.


    The United States Arctic Research Commission was established in 1984 primarily as an advisory agency. An Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee is one of the main recipients of the Commission's recommendations. The Committee formulated an Arctic research policy calling for research focused on national security concerns, regional development with minimal environmental or adverse social impact, and scientific research on Arctic phenomena and processes. In basic science, emphasis is placed on the need to understand Arctic processes as part of the global earth system. These processes include those that affect and are affected by climatic change. A new research program in Arctic systems science has three components: paleoenvironmental studies on ice core from Greenland; ocean-atmosphere interactions; and land-atmosphere interactions. The Commission also recognizes a need to focus on issues relevant to the Arctic as an integral component of the world economic system, since the Arctic is a significant source of petroleum and minerals. The Commission recommended that the Committee develop an Arctic engineering research plan with emphasis on such topics as oil spill prevention, waste disposal, small-scale power generation, and Arctic construction techniques. The USA is also cooperating in international Arctic research through the International Arctic Science Committee, the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy, and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization

  19. The Arctic Coastal Erosion Problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Thomas, Matthew Anthony [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Craig A. [Integral Consulting Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Roberts, Jesse D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    Permafrost-dominated coastlines in the Arctic are rapidly disappearing. Arctic coastal erosion rates in the United States have doubled since the middle of the twentieth century and appear to be accelerating. Positive erosion trends have been observed for highly-variable geomorphic conditions across the entire Arctic, suggesting a major (human-timescale) shift in coastal landscape evolution. Unfortunately, irreversible coastal land loss in this region poses a threat to native, industrial, scientific, and military communities. The Arctic coastline is vast, spanning more than 100,000 km across eight nations, ten percent of which is overseen by the United States. Much of area is inaccessible by all-season roads. People and infrastructure, therefore, are commonly located near the coast. The impact of the Arctic coastal erosion problem is widespread. Homes are being lost. Residents are being dispersed and their villages relocated. Shoreline fuel storage and delivery systems are at greater risk. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) operate research facilities along some of the most rapidly eroding sections of coast in the world. The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) is struggling to fortify coastal radar sites, operated to ensure national sovereignty in the air, against the erosion problem. Rapid alterations to the Arctic coastline are facilitated by oceanographic and geomorphic perturbations associated with climate change. Sea ice extent is declining, sea level is rising, sea water temperature is increasing, and permafrost state is changing. The polar orientation of the Arctic exacerbates the magnitude and rate of the environmental forcings that facilitate coastal land area loss. The fundamental mechanics of these processes are understood; their non-linear combination poses an extreme hazard. Tools to accurately predict Arctic coastal erosion do not exist. To obtain an accurate predictive model, a coupling of the influences of

  20. Arctic Shipping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Carsten Ørts; Grønsedt, Peter; Lindstrøm Graversen, Christian

    This report forms part of the ambitious CBS Maritime research initiative entitled “Competitive Challenges and Strategic Development Potential in Global Maritime Industries” which was launched with the generous support of the Danish Maritime Fund. The competitiveness initiative targets specific ma......, the latter aiming at developing key concepts and building up a basic industry knowledge base for further development of CBS Maritime research and teaching. This report attempts to map the opportunities and challenges for the maritime industry in an increasingly accessible Arctic Ocean...

  1. Integrating STEM Place-Based, Culturally Responsive and Citizen Science Learning in Exploring the Impacts and Feedbacks of a Changing Arctic (United States)

    Sparrow, E. B.; Spellman, K. V.; Fabbri, C.; Comiso, J. C.; Chase, M.; Fochesatto, G. J.; Butcher, C. E.; Jones, D.; Bacsujlaky, M.; Yoshikawa, K.; Gho, C. L.; Wegner, K.


    To build capacity in navigating challenges associated with a changing climate, learning in Arctic communities must not only increase STEM and climate change literacy, but also generate new knowledge as the rapid changes occur. Among the new NASA Science Mission Directorate Science Education projects, Arctic and Earth SIGNs (STEM Integrating GLOBE and NASA assets) is providing opportunities for K-12 pre-service and in-service teachers, their students, and lifelong learners to engage in citizen science using the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) methods and culturally responsive learning to help address climate change challenges within their unique community, and contribute to hypothesis driven research. This project will weave traditional knowledge and western science, and use ground observations and satellite data and best teaching practices in STEM learning, supported through a NASA cooperative agreement and collaborative partnerships. Implementation will begin in rural Alaska and grow within Alaska and throughout the United States to reach underserved and STEM underrepresented populations, through face-to-face and on-line teaching and learning as well as building partnerships among educators, scientists, local and indigenous experts, institutions, agencies, and learning communities. Partners include research and teaching institutions at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the Association of Interior Native Educators, the North Slope Borough School District and other school districts, the Kenaitze Tribe Environmental Education program, NASA science education and research programs as well as those of NOAA and NSF, the GLOBE Implementation Office, the 4-H program and others. The program resources and model will be shared and disseminated within the United States and globally through partners for local, national and worldwide use in STEM climate change education and citizen empowerment.

  2. Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: sensitivity and non-linear response to Arctic/sub-Arctic freshwater pulses. Collaborative research. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, Christopher [MIT (Massachusetts Inst. of Technology), Cambridge, MA (United States)


    This project investigated possible mechanisms by which melt-water pulses can induce abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) magnitude. AMOC magnitude is an important ingredient in present day climate. Previous studies have hypothesized abrupt reduction in AMOC magnitude in response to influxes of glacial melt water into the North Atlantic. Notable fresh-water influxes are associated with the terminus of the last ice age. During this period large volumes of melt water accumulated behind retreating ice sheets and subsequently drained rapidly when the ice weakened sufficiently. Rapid draining of glacial lakes into the North Atlantic is a possible origin of a number of paleo-record abrupt climate shifts. These include the Younger-Dryas cooling event and the 8,200 year cooling event. The studies undertaken focused on whether the mechanistic sequence by which glacial melt-water impacts AMOC, which then impacts Northern Hemisphere global mean surface temperature, is dynamically plausible. The work has implications for better understanding past climate stability. The work also has relevance for today’s environment, in which high-latitude ice melting in Greenland appears to be driving fresh water outflows at an accelerating pace.

  3. Coordinating for Arctic Conservation: Implementing Integrated Arctic Biodiversity Monitoring, Data Management and Reporting (United States)

    Gill, M.; Svoboda, M.


    Arctic ecosystems and the biodiversity they support are experiencing growing pressure from various stressors (e.g. development, climate change, contaminants, etc.) while established research and monitoring programs remain largely uncoordinated, lacking the ability to effectively monitor, understand and report on biodiversity trends at the circumpolar scale. The maintenance of healthy arctic ecosystems is a global imperative as the Arctic plays a critical role in the Earth's physical, chemical and biological balance. A coordinated and comprehensive effort for monitoring arctic ecosystems is needed to facilitate effective and timely conservation and adaptation actions. The Arctic's size and complexity represents a significant challenge towards detecting and attributing important biodiversity trends. This demands a scaled, pan-arctic, ecosystem-based approach that not only identifies trends in biodiversity, but also identifies underlying causes. It is critical that this information be made available to generate effective strategies for adapting to changes now taking place in the Arctic—a process that ultimately depends on rigorous, integrated, and efficient monitoring programs that have the power to detect change within a "management" time frame. To meet these challenges and in response to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment's recommendation to expand and enhance arctic biodiversity monitoring, the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) Working Group of the Arctic Council launched the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program (CBMP). The CBMP is led by Environment Canada on behalf of Canada and the Arctic Council. The CBMP is working with over 60 global partners to expand, integrate and enhance existing arctic biodiversity research and monitoring efforts to facilitate more rapid detection, communication and response to significant trends and pressures. Towards this end, the CBMP has established three Expert Monitoring Groups representing major Arctic

  4. What we know, do not know, and need to know about climate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematic literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, James D; Pearce, Tristan


    This letter systematically reviews and synthesizes scientific and gray literature publications (n = 420) to identify and characterize the nature of climate change vulnerability in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region of the western Canadian Arctic and identify gaps in understanding. The literature documents widespread evidence of climate change, with implications for human and biophysical systems. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions and are indicative of a high adaptive capacity. However, barriers to adaptation are evident and are expected to constrain adaptive capacity to future climate change. Continued climate change is predicted for the region, with differential exposure sensitivity for communities, groups and sectors: a function of social-economic-biophysical characteristics and projected future climatic conditions. Existing climate risks are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, although the interaction between projected changes and socio-economic-demographic trends has not been assessed. The capacity for adapting to future climate change has also not been studied. The review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and other stakeholders to address research needs. Importantly, the fully categorized list of reviewed references accompanying this letter will be a valuable resource for those working or planning to work in the region, capturing climate change research published since 1990. At a broader level, the systematic review methodology offers a promising tool for climate/environmental change studies in general where there is a large and emerging body of research but limited understanding of research gaps and needs.

  5. Climate change influence on the internal structure of talus slopes in the Arctic - A case study from the southern Spitsbergen, Norway (United States)

    Senderak, K.; Kondracka, M.; Gądek, B.


    Talus slopes are present in all geographical altitudes, but the most active and dynamic slopes occur in high-mountain and polar areas. Spitsbergen, Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic, combines these two environments, therefore, the talus slopes develop in specific environmental conditions that have changed since the beginning of deglaciation. On Spitsbergen, which is 60% glaciated, talus slope evolution depends frequently on the interaction with glaciers, as well as the size of sediment supply area, the lithology, and the intensive of rock weathering. The warming of climate in the Arctic cause the identifiable changes in the internal structures of talus slopes associated with i.e. the melting of glaciers and the high activity of many morphogenetic processes on slope surface. The identification of these changes is a key to understanding of climate change influence (direct and indirect influence) on talus slope evolution. Our work presents the results of research, mainly based on the measurements using electrical resistivity tomography method (ERT) and ground-penetrating radar method (GPR), which were made on the talus slopes of southern Spitsbergen in the vicinity of Polish Polar Station in Hornsund. The geophysical surveys and geomorphological observations show that the climatic factor plays the significant role in the development of slopes, what is clearly visible when analyzing the whole slope systems in the selected glacial valleys (partly glaciated). The differences in the internal structure can depend on distance from the glacier and age of form. This mainly concerns the volume of buried glacial ice in slope material, the thickness of talus slopes, the depth of permafrost and active layer, the stored sedimentological structures including e.g. the traces of fresh material supply. New data on the internal structure of talus slopes developing in the present glaciated area allow for discussions on the talus slope evolution, which, according to the authors, needs

  6. Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard). (United States)

    Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph


    Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21(st) century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to -4 m a(-1) w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario.

  7. Source Characterization and Temporal Variation of Methane Seepage from Thermokarst Lakes on the Alaska North Slope in Response to Arctic Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None


    The goals of this research were to characterize the source, magnitude and temporal variability of methane seepage from thermokarst lakes (TKL) within the Alaska North Slope gas hydrate province, assess the vulnerability of these areas to ongoing and future arctic climate change and determine if gas hydrate dissociation resulting from permafrost melting is contributing to the current lake emissions. Analyses were focused on four main lake locations referred to in this report: Lake Qalluuraq (referred to as Lake Q) and Lake Teshekpuk (both on Alaska's North Slope) and Lake Killarney and Goldstream Bill Lake (both in Alaska's interior). From analyses of gases coming from lakes in Alaska, we showed that ecological seeps are common in Alaska and they account for a larger source of atmospheric methane today than geologic subcap seeps. Emissions from the geologic source could increase with potential implications for climate warming feedbacks. Our analyses of TKL sites showing gas ebullition were complemented with geophysical surveys, providing important insight about the distribution of shallow gas in the sediments and the lake bottom manifestation of seepage (e.g., pockmarks). In Lake Q, Chirp data were limited in their capacity to image deeper sediments and did not capture the thaw bulb. The failure to capture the thaw bulb at Lake Q may in part be related to the fact that the present day lake is a remnant of an older, larger, and now-partially drained lake. These suggestions are consistent with our analyses of a dated core of sediment from the lake that shows that a wetland has been present at the site of Lake Q since approximately 12,000 thousand years ago. Chemical analyses of the core indicate that the availability of methane at the site has changed during the past and is correlated with past environmental changes (i.e. temperature and hydrology) in the Arctic. Discovery of methane seeps in Lake Teshekpuk in the northernmost part of the lake during 2009

  8. Analysis of Decadal-Scale Shoreline Change along the Hamlet of Paulatuk (Canadian Arctic), using Landsat Satellite Imagery and GIS techniques from 1984 to 2014. (United States)

    Sankar, R. D.; Murray, M. S.; Wells, P.


    Increased accuracy in estimating coastal change along localized segments of the Canadian Arctic coast is essential, in order to identify plausible adaptation initiatives to deal with the effects of climate change. This paper quantifies rates of shoreline movement along an 11 km segment of the Hamlet of Paulatuk (Northwest Territories, Canada), using an innovative modelling technique - Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR). Approximately two dozen shorelines, obtained from high-resolution Landsat satellite imagery were analyzed. Shorelines were extracted using the band ratio method and compiled in ArcMapTM to determine decadal trends of coastal change. The unique geometry of Paulatuk facilitated an independent analysis of the western and eastern sections of the study area. Long-term (1984-2014) and short-term (1984-2003) erosion and accretion rates were calculated using the Linear Regression and End Point Rate methods respectively. Results reveal an elevated rate of erosion for the western section of the hamlet over the long-term (-1.1 m/yr), compared to the eastern portion (-0.92 m/yr). The study indicates a significant alongshore increase in the rates of erosion on both portions of the study area, over the short-term period 1984 to 2003. Mean annual erosion rates increased over the short-term along the western segment (-1.4 m/yr), while the eastern shoreline retreated at a rate of -1.3 m/yr over the same period. The analysis indicates that an amalgamation of factors may be responsible for the patterns of land loss experienced along Paulatuk. These include increased sea-surface temperature coupled with dwindling arctic ice and elevated storm hydrodynamics. The analysis further reveals that the coastline along the eastern portion of the hamlet, where the majority of the population reside, is vulnerable to a high rate of shoreline erosion.

  9. The ethological approach as a new way of investigating behavioural health in the Arctic. (United States)

    Tafforin, Carole


    From an interdisciplinary perspective, the goal of our research in human ethology is to investigate the adaptive dynamics of small groups in isolation and confinement with a particular emphasis on unexplored environments, from circumpolar missions on earth to interplanetary missions in space. The ethological observations were designed to monitor the polar teams on the Subantarctic islands, the Antarctic continent and the Arctic Ocean. The working hypothesis viewed the periodic changes in the groups' organization as optimal behavioural strategies in extreme living and working conditions. The general methodological feature is a quantitative description of observable events based on the motor activity of individuals, interactions and communications among individuals and spatial mapping in collective areas. We observed group organization, group disorganization and group reorganization over extended time periods in the polar stations. Cultural grouping and gender-based individualities were observed as well. Focusing on the Tara Expedition in the Arctic, we observed variations in spatial indicators, including inter-individual positions, and in temporal indicators, like collective times, as behavioural strategies for preventing the monotony of social life. The ethological approach, using non-invasive techniques of observation, description and quantification of spontaneous human behaviour, offers an innovative and complementary tool for sociocultural approaches, enhancing the knowledge of contemporary circumpolar micro-societies. With the changing of environmental context, the Arctic natives would undertake changes in their group organization for maintaining their behavioural health. Such social adaptation could be investigated with this new approach in the field.

  10. Contemporary America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duncan, Russell

    Analyzes and explains American Institutions and society during the George W. Bush administration, particularly dealing with the war on terror and the domestic changes and continuities.......Analyzes and explains American Institutions and society during the George W. Bush administration, particularly dealing with the war on terror and the domestic changes and continuities....

  11. Contemporary America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duncan, Russell; Goddard, Joe

    This study looks at the monumental changes wrought by the terror attacks of 11 September 2001 and the War on Terror that followed, in its domestic and foreign policy ramifications.......This study looks at the monumental changes wrought by the terror attacks of 11 September 2001 and the War on Terror that followed, in its domestic and foreign policy ramifications....

  12. Environmental marine geology of the Arctic Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mudie, P.J.


    The Arctic Ocean and its ice cover are major regulators of Northern Hemisphere climate, ocean circulation and marine productivity. The Arctic is also very sensitive to changes in the global environment because sea ice magnifies small changes in temperature, and because polar regions are sinks for air pollutants. Marine geology studies are being carried out to determine the nature and rate of these environmental changes by study of modem ice and sea-bed environments, and by interpretation of geological records imprinted in the sea-floor sediments. Sea ice camps, an ice island, and polar icebreakers have been used to study both western and eastern Arctic Ocean basins. Possible early warning signals of environmental changes in the Canadian Arctic are die-back in Arctic sponge reefs, outbreaks of toxic dinoflagellates, and pesticides in the marine food chain. Eastern Arctic ice and surface waters are contaminated by freon and radioactive fallout from Chernobyl. At present, different sedimentary processes operate in the pack ice-covered Canadian polar margin than in summer open waters off Alaska and Eurasia. The geological records, however, suggest that a temperature increase of 1-4 degree C would result in summer open water throughout the Arctic, with major changes in ocean circulation and productivity of waters off Eastern North America, and more widespread transport of pollutants from eastern to western Arctic basins. More studies of longer sediment cores are needed to confirm these interpretations, but is is now clear that the Arctic Ocean has been the pacemaker of climate change during the past 1 million years

  13. Ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    López-Blanco, Efrén

    The terrestrial CO2 exchange in the Arctic plays an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle. The Arctic ecosystems, containing a large amount of organic carbon (C), are experiencing on-going warming in recent decades, which is affecting the C cycling and the feedback interactions between its...... of measurement sites, particularly covering full annual cycles, but also the frequent gaps in data affected by extreme conditions and remoteness. Combining ecosystem models and field observations we are able to study the underlying processes of Arctic CO2 exchange in changing environments. The overall aim...... of the research is to use data-model approaches to analyse the patterns of C exchange and their links to biological processes in Arctic ecosystems, studied in detail both from a measurement and a modelling perspective, but also from a local to a pan-arctic scale. In Paper I we found a compensatory response...

  14. Tipping elements in the Arctic marine ecosystem. (United States)

    Duarte, Carlos M; Agustí, Susana; Wassmann, Paul; Arrieta, Jesús M; Alcaraz, Miquel; Coello, Alexandra; Marbà, Núria; Hendriks, Iris E; Holding, Johnna; García-Zarandona, Iñigo; Kritzberg, Emma; Vaqué, Dolors


    The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.

  15. Between-year changes in community composition shape species’ roles in an Arctic plant–pollinator network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cirtwill, Alyssa R.; Roslin, Tomas; Rasmussen, Claus


    Inter-annual turnover in community composition can affect the richness and functioning of ecological communities. If incoming and outgoing species do not interact with the same partners, ecological functions such as pollination may be disrupted. Here, we explore the extent to which turnover affects...... in species’ roles between networks. Variation in the roles of plants and pollinators tended to increase with the amount of community turnover, although a negative interaction between turnover in the plant and pollinator assemblages complicated this trend for the roles of pollinators. This suggests...... species’ roles – as defined based on their participation in different motifs positions – in a series of temporally replicated plant–pollinator networks from high-Arctic Zackenberg, Greenland. We observed substantial turnover in the plant and pollinator assemblages, combined with significant variation...

  16. Pelagic Nitrogen Cycle Observations In The Arctic Ocean - How Might They Change In Response To Ocean Acidification? (United States)

    Clark, D. R.; Rees, A.; Brown, I.; Al-Moosawi, L.; Cripps, G.


    Phytoplankton forms the base of marine food webs by assimilating nutrients and generating biomass that supports higher trophic levels. Conversely, marine heterotrophs degrade organic matter produced by phytoplankton and recycle nutrients, maintaining food web integrity. We investigated the assimilation and regeneration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) at stations located in the Arctic Ocean. In addition, we measured the concentration of nitrous oxide, a by-product of N-regeneration (specifically nitrification) and a climatically active gas. Measurements demonstrated the simultaneous regeneration and assimilation of ammonium, nitrite and nitrate at open ocean, ice-edge and within-ice locations. Ammonium was regenerated and assimilated within the range 0.2-4.5 nmol·L-1·h-1 and 0.5-24.8 nmol·L-1·h-1 respectively. Nitrite was regenerated and assimilated within the range 0.1-9.2 nmol·L-1·h-1 and 0.0-6.9 nmol·L-1·h-1 respectively. Nitrate was regenerated and assimilated within the range 0.3-372.7 nmol·L-1·h-1 and 0.1-48.3 nmol·L-1·h-1 respectively. Results indicated that the ice-edge was associated with enhanced DIN assimilation. The concentration of nitrous oxide (oxidation and the concentration of nitrous oxide did not respond in a clear or consistent way to OA treatments. In contrast, the regeneration of NH4+ increased in response to elevated PCO2. The bacterial degradation of organic matter may be enhanced in the Arctic Ocean in response to OA, potentially modifying DIN pool composition and concentration in the future.

  17. Radiocarbon age-offsets in an arctic lake reveal the long-term response of permafrost carbon to climate change (United States)

    Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Mann, Daniel H.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Pohlman, John W.; Kunz, Michael L.; Wooller, Matthew J.


    Continued warming of the Arctic may cause permafrost to thaw and speed the decomposition of large stores of soil organic carbon (OC), thereby accentuating global warming. However, it is unclear if recent warming has raised the current rates of permafrost OC release to anomalous levels or to what extent soil carbon release is sensitive to climate forcing. Here we use a time series of radiocarbon age-offsets (14C) between the bulk lake sediment and plant macrofossils deposited in an arctic lake as an archive for soil and permafrost OC release over the last 14,500 years. The lake traps and archives OC imported from the watershed and allows us to test whether prior warming events stimulated old carbon release and heightened age-offsets. Today, the age-offset (2 ka; thousand of calibrated years before A.D. 1950) and the depositional rate of ancient OC from the watershed into the lake are relatively low and similar to those during the Younger Dryas cold interval (occurring 12.9–11.7 ka). In contrast, age-offsets were higher (3.0–5.0 ka) when summer air temperatures were warmer than present during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka) and Bølling-Allerød periods (14.5–12.9 ka). During these warm times, permafrost thaw contributed to ancient OC depositional rates that were ~10 times greater than today. Although permafrost OC was vulnerable to climate warming in the past, we suggest surface soil organic horizons and peat are presently limiting summer thaw and carbon release. As a result, the temperature threshold to trigger widespread permafrost OC release is higher than during previous warming events.

  18. Limits to benthic feeding by eiders in a vital Arctic migration corridor due to localized prey and changing sea ice (United States)

    Lovvorn, James R.; Rocha, Aariel R.; Jewett, Stephen C.; Dasher, Douglas; Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby


    Four species of threatened or declining eider ducks that nest in the Arctic migrate through the northeast Chukchi Sea, where anticipated industrial development may require prioritizing areas for conservation. In this nearshore corridor (10–40 m depth), the eiders’ access to benthic prey during the spring is restricted to variable areas of open water within sea ice. For the most abundant species, the king eider (Somateria spectabilis), stable isotopes in blood cells, muscle, and potential prey indicate that these eiders ate mainly bivalves when traversing this corridor. Bivalves there were much smaller than the same taxa in deeper areas of the northern Bering Sea, possibly due to higher mortality rates caused by ice scour in shallow water; future decrease in seasonal duration of fast ice may increase this effect. Computer simulations suggested that if these eiders forage for >15 h/day, they can feed profitably at bivalve densities >200 m−2 regardless of water depth or availability of ice for resting. Sampling in 2010–2012 showed that large areas of profitable prey densities occurred only in certain locations throughout the migration corridor. Satellite data in April–May over 13 years (2001–2013) indicated that access to major feeding areas through sea ice in different segments of the corridor can vary from 0% to 100% between months and years. In a warming and increasingly variable climate, unpredictability of access may be enhanced by greater effects of shifting winds on unconsolidated ice. Our results indicate the importance of having a range of potential feeding areas throughout the migration corridor to ensure prey availability in all years. Spatial planning of nearshore industrial development in the Arctic, including commercial shipping, pipeline construction, and the risk of released oil, should consider these effects of high environmental variability on the adequacy of habitats targeted for conservation.

  19. Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys: 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation (United States)

    Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J.; Wainwright, H. M.; Graham, D.; Torn, M. S.


    Microtopographic variation that develops among features (troughs, rims, and centers) within polygonal landforms of coastal arctic tundra strongly affects movement of surface water and snow and thereby affects soil water contents (θ) and active layer depth (ALD). Spatial variation in ALD among these features may exceed interannual variation in ALD caused by changes in climate and so needs to be represented in projections of changes in arctic ALD. In this study, increases in near-surface θ with decreasing surface elevation among polygon features at the Barrow Experimental Observatory (BEO) were modeled from topographic effects on redistribution of surface water and snow and from lateral water exchange with a subsurface water table during a model run from 1981 to 2015. These increases in θ caused increases in thermal conductivity that in turn caused increases in soil heat fluxes and hence in ALD of up to 15 cm with lower versus higher surface elevation which were consistent with increases measured at BEO. The modeled effects of θ caused interannual variation in maximum ALD that compared well with measurements from 1985 to 2015 at the Barrow Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site (R2 = 0.61, RMSE = 0.03 m). For higher polygon features, interannual variation in ALD was more closely associated with annual precipitation than mean annual temperature, indicating that soil wetting from increases in precipitation may hasten permafrost degradation beyond that caused by soil warming from increases in air temperature. This degradation may be more rapid if increases in precipitation cause sustained wetting in higher features.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna K. Lappalainen


    Full Text Available The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX is a new multidisciplinary, global change research initiative focusing on understanding biosphere-ocean-cryosphere-climate interactions and feedbacks in Arctic and boreal regions in the Northern Eurasian geographical domain. PEEX operates in an integrative way and it aims at solving the major scientific and society relevant questions in many scales using tools from natural and social sciences and economics. The research agenda identifies the most urgent large scale research questions and topics of the land-atmosphere-aquatic-anthropogenic systems and interactions and feedbacks between the systems for the next decades. Furthermore PEEX actively develops and designs a coordinated and coherent ground station network from Europe via Siberia to China and the coastal line of the Arctic Ocean together with a PEEX-modeling platform. PEEX launches a program for educating the next generation of multidisciplinary researcher and technical experts. This expedites the utilization of the new scientific knowledge for producing a more reliable climate change scenarios in regional and global scales, and enables mitigation and adaptation planning of the Northern societies. PEEX gathers together leading European, Russian and Chinese research groups. With a bottom-up approach, over 40 institutes and universities have contributed the PEEX Science Plan from 18 countries. In 2014 the PEEX community prepared Science Plan and initiated conceptual design of the PEEX land-atmosphere observation network and modeling platform. Here we present the PEEX approach as a whole with the specific attention to research agenda and preliminary design of the PEEX research infrastructure.

  1. Arctic Basemaps In Google Maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Muggah, J.; Mioc, Darka


    The Ocean Mapping Group has been collecting data in the Arctic since 2003 and there are approximately 2,000 basemaps. In the current online storage format used by the OMG, it is difficult to view the data and users cannot easily pan and zoom. The purpose of this research is to investigate...... the advantages of the use of Google Maps, to display the OMG's Arctic data. The map should should load the large Artic dataset in a reasonable time. The bathymetric images were created using software in Linux written by the OMG, and a step-by-step process was used to create images from the multibeam data...... collected by the OMG in the Arctic. The website was also created using Linux operating system. The projection needed to be changed from Lambert Conformal Conic (useful at higher Latitudes) to Mercator (used by Google Maps) and the data needed to have a common colour scheme. After creating and testing...

  2. Contemporary America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duncan, Russell; Goddard, Joseph

    Details the continuities and changes in American society, politics, economics, and culture in domestic and global relations during the 2nd administration of George W. Bush and the first year of the Obama administration.......Details the continuities and changes in American society, politics, economics, and culture in domestic and global relations during the 2nd administration of George W. Bush and the first year of the Obama administration....

  3. An emergentist vs a linear approach to social change processes: a gender look in contemporary India between modernity and Hindu tradition. (United States)

    Condorelli, Rosalia


    Using Census of India data from 1901 to 2011 and national and international reports on women's condition in India, beginning with sex ratio trends according to regional distribution up to female infanticides and sex-selective abortions and dowry deaths, this study examines the sociological aspects of the gender imbalance in modern contemporary India. Gender inequality persistence in India proves that new values and structures do not necessarily lead to the disappearance of older forms, but they can co-exist with mutual adaptations and reinforcements. Data analysis suggests that these unexpected combinations are not comprehensible in light of a linear concept of social change which is founded, in turn, on a concept of social systems as linear interaction systems that relate to environmental perturbations according to proportional cause and effect relationships. From this perspective, in fact, behavioral attitudes and interaction relationships should be less and less proportionally regulated by traditional values and practices as exposure to modernizing influences increases. And progressive decreases should be found in rates of social indicators of gender inequality like dowry deaths (the inverse should be found in sex ratio trends). However, data does not confirm these trends. This finding leads to emphasize a new theoretical and methodological approach toward social systems study, namely the conception of social systems as complex adaptive systems and the consequential emergentist, nonlinear conception of social change processes. Within the framework of emergentist theory of social change is it possible to understand the lasting strength of the patriarchal tradition and its problematic consequences in the modern contemporary India.

  4. Long-term trends of black carbon and sulphate aerosol in the Arctic: changes in atmospheric transport and source region emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hirdman


    Full Text Available As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport and building on previous work (Hirdman et al., 2010, this paper studies the long-term trends of both atmospheric transport as well as equivalent black carbon (EBC and sulphate for the three Arctic stations Alert, Barrow and Zeppelin. We find a general downward trend in the measured EBC concentrations at all three stations, with a decrease of −2.1±0.4 ng m−3 yr−1 (for the years 1989–2008 and −1.4±0.8 ng m−3 yr−1 (2002–2009 at Alert and Zeppelin respectively. The decrease at Barrow is, however, not statistically significant. The measured sulphate concentrations show a decreasing trend at Alert and Zeppelin of −15±3 ng m−3 yr−1 (1985–2006 and −1.3±1.2 ng m−3 yr−1 (1990–2008 respectively, while there is no trend detectable at Barrow.

    To reveal the contribution of different source regions on these trends, we used a cluster analysis of the output of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART run backward in time from the measurement stations. We have investigated to what extent variations in the atmospheric circulation, expressed as variations in the frequencies of the transport from four source regions with different emission rates, can explain the long-term trends in EBC and sulphate measured at these stations. We find that the long-term trend in the atmospheric circulation can only explain a minor fraction of the overall downward trend seen in the measurements of EBC (0.3–7.2% and sulphate (0.3–5.3% at the Arctic stations. The changes in emissions are dominant in explaining the trends. We find that the highest EBC and sulphate concentrations are associated with transport from Northern Eurasia and decreasing emissions in this region drive the

  5. High spatial resolution decade-time scale land cover change at multiple locations in the Beringian Arctic (1948–2000s)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, D H; Johnson, D R; Tweedie, C E; Andresen, C


    Analysis of time series imagery from satellite and aircraft platforms is useful for detecting land cover change at plot to regional scales. In this study, we created multi-temporal high spatial resolution land cover maps for seven locations in the Beringian Arctic and assessed the change in land cover over time. Land cover classifications were site specific and mostly aligned with a soil moisture gradient. Time series varied between 60 and 21 years. Four of the five landscapes studied in Alaska underwent an expansion of drier land cover classes while the two landscapes studies in Chukotka, Russia showed an expansion of wetter land cover types. While a range of land cover types was present across the landscapes studied, the extent of shrubs (in Chukotka) and open water (in Alaska) increased in all landscapes where these land cover types were present. The results support trends documented for regional change in NDVI (a measure of vegetation greenness and productivity) as well as a host of other long term, experimental and modeling studies. Using historic change trends for each land cover type at each landscape, we use a simple probabilistic vegetation model to establish hypotheses of future change trajectories for different land cover types at each of the landscapes investigated. This study is a contribution to the International Polar Year Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF). (letter)

  6. NASA's Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment: A large-scale study of environmental change in Western North America and its implications for ecological systems and society (United States)

    Kasischke, E. S.; Hayes, D. J.; Griffith, P. C.; Larson, E. K.; Wickland, D. E.


    Climate change in high northern latitudes is unfolding faster than anywhere else on Earth, resulting in widespread changes in landscape structure and ecosystem function in the Arctic-Boreal Region (ABR). Recognizing its sensitivity, vulnerability and global importance, national- and international-level scientific efforts are now advancing our ability to observe, understand and model the complex, multi-scale processes that drive the ABR's natural and social systems. Long at the edge of our mental map of the world, environmental change in the ABR is increasingly becoming the focus of numerous policy discussions at the highest levels of decision-making. To improve our understanding of environmental change and its impacts in the ABR, the Terrestrial Ecology Program of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is planning its next major field campaign for Western Canada and Alaska. The field campaign will be based on the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) concept as described in the Revised Executive Summary from the ABoVE Scoping Study Report. The original Scoping Study Report provided the proof-of-concept demonstration of scientific importance and feasibility for this large-scale study. In early 2013, NASA announced the selection of the ABoVE Science Definition Team, which is charged with developing the Concise Experiment Plan for the campaign. Here, we outline the conceptual basis for ABoVE and present the compelling rationale explaining the scientific and societal importance of the study. We present the current status of the planning process, which includes development of the science questions to drive ABoVE research; the study design for the field campaign to address them; and the interagency and international collaborations necessary for implementation. The ABoVE study will focus on 1) developing a fuller understanding of ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the ABR, and 2) providing the scientific information required to

  7. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan. (United States)

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man


    The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Data collected during the 2007-2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline) resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.

  8. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Rosol


    Full Text Available Background: The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods: Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results: A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions: If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.

  9. Arctic Submarine Slope Stability (United States)

    Winkelmann, D.; Geissler, W.


    Submarine landsliding represents aside submarine earthquakes major natural hazard to coastal and sea-floor infrastructure as well as to coastal communities due to their ability to generate large-scale tsunamis with their socio-economic consequences. The investigation of submarine landslides, their conditions and trigger mechanisms, recurrence rates and potential impact remains an important task for the evaluation of risks in coastal management and offshore industrial activities. In the light of a changing globe with warming oceans and rising sea-level accompanied by increasing human population along coasts and enhanced near- and offshore activities, slope stability issues gain more importance than ever before. The Arctic exhibits the most rapid and drastic changes and is predicted to change even faster. Aside rising air temperatures, enhanced inflow of less cooled Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean reduces sea-ice cover and warms the surroundings. Slope stability is challenged considering large areas of permafrost and hydrates. The Hinlopen/Yermak Megaslide (HYM) north of Svalbard is the first and so far only reported large-scale submarine landslide in the Arctic Ocean. The HYM exhibits the highest headwalls that have been found on siliciclastic margins. With more than 10.000 square kilometer areal extent and app. 2.400 cubic kilometer of involved sedimentary material, it is one of the largest exposed submarine slides worldwide. Geometry and age put this slide in a special position in discussing submarine slope stability on glaciated continental margins. The HYM occurred 30 ka ago, when the global sea-level dropped by app. 50 m within less than one millennium due to rapid onset of global glaciation. It probably caused a tsunami with circum-Arctic impact and wave heights exceeding 130 meters. The HYM affected the slope stability field in its neighbourhood by removal of support. Post-megaslide slope instability as expressed in creeping and smaller-scaled slides are

  10. The influence of global climate change on the environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants: A review with emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic as a receptor (United States)

    Ma, Jianmin; Hung, Hayley; Macdonald, Robie W.


    Following worldwide bans and restrictions on the use of many persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from the late 1970s, their regional and global distributions have become governed increasingly by phase partitioning between environmental reservoirs, such as air, water, soil, vegetation and ice, where POPs accumulated during the original applications. Presently, further transport occurs within the atmospheric and aquatic reservoirs. Increasing temperatures provide thermodynamic forcing to drive these chemicals out of reservoirs, like soil, vegetation, water and ice, and into the atmosphere where they can be transported rapidly by winds and then recycled among environmental media to reach locations where lower temperatures prevail (e.g., polar regions and high elevations). Global climate change, widely considered as global warming, is also manifested by changes in hydrological systems and in the cryosphere; with the latter now exhibiting widespread loss of ice cover on the Arctic Ocean and thawing of permafrost. All of these changes alter the cycling and fate of POPs. There is abundant evidence from observations and modeling showing that climate variation has an effect on POPs levels in biotic and abiotic environments. This article reviews recent progress in research on the effects of climate change on POPs with the intention of promoting awareness of the importance of interactions between climate and POPs in the geophysical and ecological systems.

  11. Importance of lateral flux and its percolation depth on organic carbon export in Arctic tundra soil: Implications from a soil leaching experiment: Changes of OC in Arctic Soil Leachate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xiaowen [Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville Florida USA; Hutchings, Jack A. [Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville Florida USA; Bianchi, Thomas S. [Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville Florida USA; Liu, Yina [Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Arellano, Ana R. [Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville Florida USA; Schuur, Edward A. G. [Center for Ecosystem Science and Society and Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff Arizona USA; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville Florida USA


    Temperature rise in the Arctic is causing deepening of active layers and resulting in the mobilization of deep permafrost dissolved organic matter (DOM). However, the mechanisms of DOM mobilization from Arctic soils, especially upper soil horizons which are drained most frequently through a year, are poorly understood. Here, we conducted a short-term leaching experiment on surface and deep organic active layer soils, from the Yukon River basin, to examine the effects of DOM transport on bulk and molecular characteristics. Our data showed a net release of DOM from surface soils equal to an average of 5% of soil carbon. Conversely, deep soils percolated with surface leachates retained up to 27% of bulk DOM-while releasing fluorescent components (up to 107%), indicating selective release of aromatic components (e.g. lignin, tannin), while retaining non-chromophoric components, as supported by spectrofluorometric and ultra high resolution mass spectroscopic techniques. Our findings highlight the importance of the lateral flux of DOM on ecosystem carbon balance as well as processing of DOM transport through organic active layer soils en route to rivers and streams. This work also suggests the potential role of leachate export as an important mechanism of C losses from Arctic soils, in comparison with the more traditional pathway from soil to atmosphere in a warming Arctic.

  12. The Usage of xiǎojiě (小姐 in Contemporary Chinese: Synchronic Differences in Distribution and Possibilities for Diachronic Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Fanzhu


    Full Text Available xiǎojiě ( 小姐, miss is a popular form of address in contemporary Chinese; generally speaking, it is defined as a title for “unmarried girl”. This form has multiple connotations,. Given recent changes in society, some think that, xiǎojiě (小姐 will become a widely-used form of address, while others think that young females will come to consider the title repulsive. None can have the final say, this is because the synchronic language differences are not only the result of the synchronic change but also possibly its sign. Since synchronic differences could not only be a result of diachronic change but also could herald further change, it is not clear what direction xiǎojiě ( 小姐 will take. In the language conflicts, When two language varieties conflict, the more common variety usually influences the less common. A field investigation in large cities throughout China thus allows us not only to draw A Distributional Map of Pragmatic Features of the Title xiǎojiě (小姐, but also enables us to see its diachronic possibilities.

  13. Creating future fit between ice and society: The institutionalization of a refuge in the Arctic to preserve sea ice system services in a changing North (United States)

    Lovecraft, A. L.; Meek, C. L.


    The Arctic sea ice system can be holistically characterized as a social-ecological system that provides not only vital geophysical and biological services to climate and oceans but also provisioning services to people and industry. These services are under threat from the three major interconnected global forces of increasing traffic for shipping, security, and tourism; contaminant accumulation primarily from distant, but also related to some local marine activities, industrial production; and climatic changes, especially the warming at the poles which is diminishing the earth’s cryosphere. As the Arctic becomes more open due to sea ice loss the current strategies to preserve individual species or sea ice system functions may become obsolete in the next several decades. Concurrent to this will be the rise of traffic in areas currently not passable and an increase in exploitation of natural resources (biological and mineral) further north. This expansion of human activity does not have a suite of institutions in place that comprehensively address a future open Arctic Ocean and the coasts of the circumpolar north. Consequently, as the amount of space that can preserve a diversity of sea ice system services shrinks and the use of that space becomes crowded with interests, governments across scales need to be able to plan to balance the increase in use with preservation of services valuable both in terms of regulating and supporting planetary processes and the cultural and provisioning services more immediately tied to human flourishing. In short, it is a race between stressors and human capacity to manage them through rules minimizing their direct impact on the ice or preventing them from entering an eventual “ice shed” boundaries of a minimum summer sea ice cover. This poster explores the potential for the creation of a system of governance that would provide a refuge based on the projected summer sea ice to remain in the Arctic even as the climate shifts in

  14. The Arctic : the great breakup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemieux, R.


    The impact that climate change has had on the famous Northwest passage in Canada's Arctic was discussed. The water channel through the Arctic Islands is now navigable during the summer and it has been predicted that in 40 years, it may be navigable throughout the entire year. Although the Arctic is still covered with snow, the icebergs which navigators have feared no longer exist. Environment Canada has cautioned that Canada's extreme north would be most at risk from global warming, with temperatures increasing by 6 degrees, or 3 times higher than in moderate zones. The joint Canadian-United States program Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic has also confirmed that the waters of the Beaufort Sea are less salty and relatively warmer. Climatologists also project that the predicted increase in snowfall will act as an insulation blanket, thereby preventing the ice from thickening. Scientists stated that the gigantic polar cap, which has been frozen for the past 3.2 million years, will have fissures everywhere by 2080. The Northwest passage will become easily accessible in less than 10 years. This article raised questions regarding the role of the Northwest passage as an international maritime route. It presented the case of the first successful passage of a U.S. commercial oil tanker in 1969 which created controversy regarding Canada's territorial waters. Fourty years later, this issue is still not resolved. The article questioned whether there should be more cooperation on both the Canadian and American sides in light of the shared common interests such as commerce, science and security. It was noted that although Canada has sovereignty of the Arctic Islands, there are eight other countries who share the Arctic. 4 figs

  15. The Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA)


    Baschek, Burkard; Schroeder, Friedhelm; Brix, Holger; Riethmüller, Rolf; Badewien, Thomas H.; Breitbach, Gisbert; Brügge, Bernd; Colijn, Franciscus; Doerffer, Roland; Eschenbach, Christiane; Friedrich, Jana; Fischer, Philipp; Garthe, Stefan; Horstmann, Jochen; Krasemann, Hajo


    The Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA) was established in order to better understand the complex interdisciplinary processes of northern seas and the Arctic coasts in a changing environment. Particular focus is given to the German Bight in the North Sea as a prime example of a heavily used coastal area, and Svalbard as an example of an Arctic coast that is under strong pressure due to global change. The COSYNA automated observing and modelling system is designed...

  16. Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in an AOGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arzel, Olivier [University of New South Wales, Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Sydney, NSW (Australia); Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Dufresne, Jean-Louis [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace UPMC/CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France)


    The fourth version of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation (AOGCM) model developed at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM4) is used to investigate the mechanisms influencing the Arctic freshwater balance in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. The freshwater influence on the interannual variability of deep winter oceanic convection in the Nordic Seas is also studied on the basis of correlation and regression analyses of detrended variables. The model shows that the Fram Strait outflow, which is an important source of freshwater for the northern North Atlantic, experiences a rapid and strong transition from a weak state toward a relatively strong state during 1990-2010. The authors propose that this climate shift is triggered by the retreat of sea ice in the Barents Sea during the late twentieth century. This sea ice reduction initiates a positive feedback in the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system that alters both the atmospheric and oceanic circulations in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN)-Barents Seas sector. Around year 2080, the model predicts a second transition threshold beyond which the Fram Strait outflow is restored toward its original weak value. The long-term freshening of the GIN Seas is invoked to explain this rapid transition. It is further found that the mechanism of interannual changes in deep mixing differ fundamentally between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This difference is caused by the dominant influence of freshwater over the twenty-first century. In the GIN Seas, the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater export out of the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait combined with the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater import from the North Atlantic are shown to have a major influence in driving the interannual variability of the deep convection during the twenty-first century. South of Iceland, the other region of deep water renewal in the model, changes in freshwater import from the North Atlantic

  17. Revealing Interactions between Human Resources, Quality of Life and Environmental Changes within Socially-oriented Observations : Results from the IPY PPS Arctic Project in the Russian North (United States)

    Vlasova, Tatiana


    Socially-oriented Observations (SOO) in the Russian North have been carried out within multidisciplinary IPY PPS Arctic project under the leadership of Norway and supported by the Research Council of Norway as well as Russian Academy of Sciences. The main objective of SOO is to increase knowledge and observation of changes in quality of life conditions (state of natural environment including climate and biota, safe drinking water and foods, well-being, employment, social relations, access to health care and high quality education, etc.) and - to reveal trends in human capital and capacities (health, demography, education, creativity, spiritual-cultural characteristics and diversity, participation in decision making, etc.). SOO have been carried out in industrial cities as well as sparsely populated rural and nature protection areas in observation sites situated in different bioms (from coastal tundra to southern taiga zone) of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk Oblast and Republic of Komi. SOO were conducted according to the international protocol included in PPS Arctic Manual. SOO approaches based both on local people's perceptions and statistics help to identify main issues and targets for life quality, human capital and environment improvement and thus to distinguish leading SOO indicators for further monitoring. SOO have revealed close interaction between human resources, quality of life and environmental changes. Negative changes in human capital (depopulation, increasing unemployment, aging, declining physical and mental health, quality of education, loss of traditional knowledge, marginalization etc.), despite peoples' high creativity and optimism are becoming the major driving force effecting both the quality of life and the state of environment and overall sustainability. Human induced disturbances such as uncontrolled forests cuttings and poaching are increasing. Observed rapid changes in climate and biota (ice and permafrost melting, tundra shrubs getting taller and

  18. Contemporary changes of water resources, water and land use in Central Asia based on observations and modeling. (United States)

    Shiklomanov, A. I.; Prousevitch, A.; Sokolik, I. N.; Lammers, R. B.


    Water is a key agent in Central Asia ultimately determining human well-being, food security, and economic development. There are complex interplays among the natural and anthropogenic drivers effecting the regional hydrological processes and water availability. Analysis of the data combined from regional censuses and remote sensing shows a decline in areas of arable and irrigated lands and a significant decrease in availability of arable and irrigated lands per capita across all Central Asian countries since the middle of 1990thas the result of post-Soviet transformation processes. This change could lead to considerable deterioration in food security and human system sustainability. The change of political situation in the region has also resulted in the escalated problems of water demand between countries in international river basins. We applied the University of New Hampshire - Water Balance Model - Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems (WBM-TrANS) to understand the consequences of changes in climate, water and land use on regional hydrological processes and water availability. The model accounts for sub-pixel land cover types, glacier and snow-pack accumulation/melt across sub-pixel elevation bands, anthropogenic water use (e.g. domestic and industrial consumption, and irrigation for most of existing crop types), hydro-infrastructure for inter-basin water transfer and reservoir/dam regulations. A suite of historical climate re-analysis and temporal extrapolation of MIRCA-2000 crop structure datasets has been used in WBM-TrANS for this project. A preliminary analysis of the model simulations over the last 30 years has shown significant spatial and temporal changes in hydrology and water availability for crops and human across the region due to climatic and anthropogenic causes. We found that regional water availability is mostly impacted by changes in extents and efficiency of crop filed irrigation, especially in highly arid areas of Central Asia

  19. Radiative forcing over the conterminous United States due to contemporary land cover land use change and sensitivity to snow and interannual albedo variability (United States)

    Barnes, Christopher A.; Roy, David P.


    Satellite-derived land cover land use (LCLU), snow and albedo data, and incoming surface solar radiation reanalysis data were used to study the impact of LCLU change from 1973 to 2000 on surface albedo and radiative forcing for 58 ecoregions covering 69% of the conterminous United States. A net positive surface radiative forcing (i.e., warming) of 0.029 Wm−2 due to LCLU albedo change from 1973 to 2000 was estimated. The forcings for individual ecoregions were similar in magnitude to current global forcing estimates, with the most negative forcing (as low as −0.367 Wm−2) due to the transition to forest and the most positive forcing (up to 0.337 Wm−2) due to the conversion to grass/shrub. Snow exacerbated both negative and positive forcing for LCLU transitions between snow-hiding and snow-revealing LCLU classes. The surface radiative forcing estimates were highly sensitive to snow-free interannual albedo variability that had a percent average monthly variation from 1.6% to 4.3% across the ecoregions. The results described in this paper enhance our understanding of contemporary LCLU change on surface radiative forcing and suggest that future forcing estimates should model snow and interannual albedo variation.

  20. Contemporary demographic changes in settlements along the administrative line in Serbia towards autonomous province of Kosovo and Metohija

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vukoičić Danijela


    Full Text Available The settlements along the administrative line in Serbia towards Kosovo and Metohija had a very turbulent demographic changes in the past. These changes have influenced the present. In this paper we investigated the depopulation process of this area which is intensified with the political instability, social and economic changes. The main goal of this research was to analyze the causes and effects in the reduction of the number of inhabitants, as well as the possibility of revitalizing the rural settlements of a given area. To obtain the desired results, we analyzed the existing literature and statistical data, used comparative and historical methods as well as implemented the field surveys. The application of the SWOT analysis to the researched area have showed us the strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats that can effect the process of revitalization of the village.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona-Gabriela EANA


    Full Text Available Change existed in various forms in all stages of development of human society, is that we were dealing with in all economic aspects, social, cultural or others, all of which have affected human existence. A complex phenomenon, which occurs in a longer or shorter period of time and which requires humans to be located in the center, through their own will, constituted into a veritable binder between cause and effect, old and new, nature and culture. Today the exchange of cultural information in the context of international system allows groups of people to interact generating complex changes, so it is essential to take into account processes that could limit diversity in evolution. As well as the cultural phenomenon develops by increasing its social size, density and diversity, society will always be interested in the way how every new element changes human individual universe.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. V. Ataev


    Full Text Available The article analyzes the changes in the hydrothermal conditions within the pricaspian littoral plains accumulation and denudation-accumulative in places aeolian landscapes saltwort, saltwort-sagebrush deserts and semi-deserts in light chestnut soils based on data from weather stations "Makhachkala" for years 1945-2005.Tendencies of changes in temperature, precipitation, and hydrothermal coefficient and coefficient of moisture are shown. Tendency of modern fluctuations suggests that the climatic conditions of the last period contribute to the development of dry steppes and significant deviations from the conditions of the previous period do not occur.

  3. Mapping the Arctic: Online Undergraduate Education Using Scientific Research in International Policy (United States)

    Reed, D. L.; Edwards, B. D.; Gibbons, H.


    Ocean science education has the opportunity to span traditional academic disciplines and undergraduate curricula because of its interdisciplinary approach to address contemporary issues on a global scale. Here we report one such opportunity, which involves the development of a virtual oceanographic expedition to map the seafloor in the Arctic Ocean for use in the online Global Studies program at San Jose State University. The U.S. Extended Continental Shelf Project provides an extensive online resource to follow the activities of the third joint U.S. and Canada expedition in the Arctic Ocean, the 2010 Extended Continental Shelf survey, involving the icebreakers USCGC Healy and CCGS Louis S. St-Laurent. In the virtual expedition, students join the work of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Canadian Geological Survey by working through 21 linked web pages that combine text, audio, video, animations and graphics to first learn about the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Then, students gain insight into the complexity of science and policy interactions by relating the UNCLOS to issues in the Arctic Ocean, now increasingly accessible to exploration and development as a result of climate change. By participating on the virtual expedition, students learn the criteria contained in Article 76 of UNCLOS that are used to define the extended continental shelf and the scientific methods used to visualize the seafloor in three-dimensions. In addition to experiencing life at sea aboard a research vessel, at least virtually, students begin to interpret the meaning of seafloor features and the use of seafloor sediment samples to understand the application of ocean science to international issues, such as the implications of climate change, national sovereign rights as defined by the UNCLOS, and marine resources. The virtual expedition demonstrates that ocean science education can extend beyond traditional geoscience courses by taking advantage of

  4. Adult Education for Social and Environmental Change in Contemporary Public Art Galleries and Museums in Canada, Scotland and England (United States)

    Clover, Darlene E.


    Historically, pubic art galleries and museums have a well-deserved reputation for elitism, colonialism and exclusion and they are, therefore, frequently omitted from the discourse of adult education. However, the escalating social, cultural and ecological problems of this new century have placed pressure on these public institutions to change and…

  5. Studies in the history of the English language V: variation and change in English grammar and lexicon: contemporary approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cloutier, R.A.; Hamilton-Brehm, A.M.; Kretzschmar, W.A.


    This collection of essays focuses on current approaches to variation and change in historical English grammar and lexicon. Of the twelve papers in the collection, half are based on grammar and syntax, half on lexical developments. The volume highlights the contributions that strong empirical

  6. Case Study: Using Contemporary Behaviour Change Science to Design and Implement an Effective Nutritional Intervention within Professional Rugby League. (United States)

    Costello, Nessan; McKenna, Jim; Sutton, Louise; Deighton, Kevin; Jones, Ben


    Designing and implementing successful dietary intervention is integral to the role of sport nutrition professionals as they attempt to positively change the dietary behaviour of athletes. High-performance sport is a time-pressured environment where immediate results can often supersede pursuit of the most effective evidence-based practice. However, efficacious dietary intervention necessitates comprehensive, systematic and theoretical behavioural design and implementation if the habitual dietary behaviours of athletes are to be positively changed. Therefore, this case study demonstrates how the Behaviour Change Wheel was used to design and implement an effective nutritional intervention within professional rugby league. The eight-step intervention targeted athlete consumption of a high quality dietary intake of 25.1 MJ each day, to achieve an overall body mass increase of 5 kg across a twelve-week intervention period. The Capability, Opportunity, Motivation-Behaviour model and APEASE criteria were used to identify population-specific intervention functions, policy categories, behaviour change techniques and modes of intervention delivery. The resulting intervention was successful, increasing the average daily energy intake of the athlete to 24.5 MJ, which corresponded in a 6.2 kg body mass gain. Despite consuming 0.6 MJ less per day than targeted, secondary outcome measures of diet quality, strength, body composition and immune function all substantially improved, supporting a sufficient energy intake and the overall efficacy of a behavioural approach. Ultimately, the Behaviour Change Wheel provides sport nutrition professionals with an effective and practical step-wise method via which to design and implement effective nutritional interventions for use within high-performance sport.

  7. The tale of the shrinking weapon: seasonal changes in nutrition affect weapon size and sexual dimorphism, but not contemporary evolution. (United States)

    Miller, C W; McDonald, G C; Moore, A J


    Sexually selected traits are often highly variable in size within populations due to their close link with the physical condition of individuals. Nutrition has a large impact on physical condition, and thus, any seasonal changes in nutritional quality are predicted to alter the average size of sexually selected traits as well as the degree of sexual dimorphism in populations. However, although traits affected by mate choice are well studied, we have a surprising lack of knowledge of how natural variation in nutrition affects the expression of sexually selected weapons and sexual dimorphism. Further, few studies explicitly test for differences in the heritability and mean-scaled evolvability of sexually selected traits across conditions. We studied Narnia femorata (Hemiptera: Coreidae), an insect where males use their hind legs as weapons and the femurs are enlarged, to understand the extent to which weapon expression, sexual dimorphism and evolvability change across the actual range of nutrition available in the wild. We found that insects raised on a poor diet (cactus without fruit) are nearly monomorphic, whereas those raised on a high-quality diet (cactus with ripe fruit) are distinctly sexually dimorphic via the expression of large hind leg weapons in males. Contrary to our expectations, we found little evidence of a potential for evolutionary change for any trait measured. Thus, although we show weapons are highly condition dependent, and changes in weapon expression and dimorphism could alter evolutionary dynamics, our populations are unlikely to experience further evolutionary changes under current conditions. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  8. Recent dynamics of arctic and sub-arctic vegetation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epstein, Howard E; Myers-Smith, Isla; Walker, Donald A


    We present a focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on the ‘Recent dynamics of arctic and sub-arctic vegetation’. The focus issue includes three perspective articles (Verbyla 2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 041003, Williams et al 2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 041004, Loranty and Goetz 2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 011005) and 22 research articles. The focus issue arose as a result of heightened interest in the response of high-latitude vegetation to natural and anthropogenic changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and the consequences that these vegetation changes might have for northern ecosystems. A special session at the December 2010 American Geophysical Union Meeting on the ‘Greening of the Arctic’ spurred the call for papers. Many of the resulting articles stem from intensive research efforts stimulated by International Polar Year projects and the growing acknowledgment of ongoing climate change impacts in northern terrestrial ecosystems. (synthesis and review)

  9. Long-term changes of mercury levels in ringed seal (Phoca hispida) from Amundsen Gulf, and beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) from the Beaufort Sea, western Canadian Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Outridge, P.M.; Hobson, K.A.; Savelle, J.


    Mercury (Hg) concentrations were determined in the canine teeth of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) harvested during the 13th-14th, late 19th and early 21st Centuries in Amundsen Gulf, Northwest Territories, Canada. Most historical and pre-industrial teeth contained undetectable Hg levels (i.e. 15 N values) did not change over time, modern δ 13 C values were lower by about 2 per mille than in the 14th and 19th Centuries. This could be due to increased dissolution of anthropogenically derived CO 2 in the ocean from the atmosphere, but could also indicate more offshore pelagic feeding by modern seals, which might be a factor in their Hg exposure. New tooth [Hg] data are also presented for the Beaufort Sea beluga, using recently-discovered museum samples collected in 1960/61, which showed that most of the anthropogenic contribution to beluga Hg had already taken effect by 1960 (reaching ∼ 75% of total Hg). Taken together, the long-term seal and beluga data indicate that whereas Hg levels in the marine ecosystems of the western Canadian Arctic were probably unchanged from pre-industrial times up to the late 19th Century, there was a significant, many-fold increase in the early to mid-20th Century, but little or no change after about the early 1960s.

  10. The role of deep nitrogen and dynamic rooting profiles on vegetation dynamics and productivity in response to permafrost thaw and climate change in Arctic tundra (United States)

    Hewitt, R. E.; Helene, G.; Taylor, D. L.; McGuire, A. D.; Mack, M. C.


    goal of the model simulations is to evaluate the relative effect of deep N acquisition and dynamic rooting profile on site level vegetation productivity. This modeling exercise will contribute to more accurate predictions of vegetation change in the Arctic modulated by belowground plant traits and changing soil resources with warming.

  11. Interactions between nitrogen deposition, land cover conversion, and climate change determine the contemporary carbon balance of Europe (United States)

    Churkina, G.; Zaehle, S.; Hughes, J.; Viovy, N.; Chen, Y.; Jung, M.; Heumann, B. W.; Ramankutty, N.; Heimann, M.; Jones, C.


    European ecosystems are thought to take up large amounts of carbon, but neither the rate nor the contributions of the underlying processes are well known. In the second half of the 20th century, carbon dioxide concentrations have risen by more that 100 ppm, atmospheric nitrogen deposition has more than doubled, and European mean temperatures were increasing by 0.02 °C yr-1. The extents of forest and grasslands have increased with the respective rates of 5800 km2 yr-1 and 1100 km2 yr-1 as agricultural land has been abandoned at a rate of 7000 km2 yr-1. In this study, we analyze the responses of European land ecosystems to the aforementioned environmental changes using results from four process-based ecosystem models: BIOME-BGC, JULES, ORCHIDEE, and O-CN. The models suggest that European ecosystems sequester carbon at a rate of 56 TgC yr-1 (mean of four models for 1951-2000) with strong interannual variability (±88 TgC yr-1, average across models) and substantial inter-model uncertainty (±39 TgC yr-1). Decadal budgets suggest that there has been a continuous increase in the mean net carbon storage of ecosystems from 85 TgC yr-1 in 1980s to 108 TgC yr-1 in 1990s, and to 114 TgC yr-1 in 2000-2007. The physiological effect of rising CO2 in combination with nitrogen deposition and forest re-growth have been identified as the important explanatory factors for this net carbon storage. Changes in the growth of woody vegetation are suggested as an important contributor to the European carbon sink. Simulated ecosystem responses were more consistent for the two models accounting for terrestrial carbon-nitrogen dynamics than for the two models which only accounted for carbon cycling and the effects of land cover change. Studies of the interactions of carbon-nitrogen dynamics with land use changes are needed to further improve the quantitative understanding of the driving forces of the European land carbon balance.

  12. Interactions between nitrogen deposition, land cover conversion, and climate change determine the contemporary carbon balance of Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Churkina


    Full Text Available European ecosystems are thought to take up large amounts of carbon, but neither the rate nor the contributions of the underlying processes are well known. In the second half of the 20th century, carbon dioxide concentrations have risen by more that 100 ppm, atmospheric nitrogen deposition has more than doubled, and European mean temperatures were increasing by 0.02 °C yr−1. The extents of forest and grasslands have increased with the respective rates of 5800 km2 yr−1 and 1100 km2 yr−1 as agricultural land has been abandoned at a rate of 7000 km2 yr−1. In this study, we analyze the responses of European land ecosystems to the aforementioned environmental changes using results from four process-based ecosystem models: BIOME-BGC, JULES, ORCHIDEE, and O-CN. The models suggest that European ecosystems sequester carbon at a rate of 56 TgC yr−1 (mean of four models for 1951–2000 with strong interannual variability (±88 TgC yr−1, average across models and substantial inter-model uncertainty (±39 TgC yr−1. Decadal budgets suggest that there has been a continuous increase in the mean net carbon storage of ecosystems from 85 TgC yr−1 in 1980s to 108 TgC yr−1 in 1990s, and to 114 TgC yr−1 in 2000–2007. The physiological effect of rising CO2 in combination with nitrogen deposition and forest re-growth have been identified as the important explanatory factors for this net carbon storage. Changes in the growth of woody vegetation are suggested as an important contributor to the European carbon sink. Simulated ecosystem responses were more consistent for the two models accounting for terrestrial carbon-nitrogen dynamics than for the two models which only accounted for carbon cycling and the effects of land cover change. Studies of the interactions of carbon-nitrogen dynamics with

  13. Organic Carbon Delivery from a High-Arctic North American Watershed: Implications for Beaufort Sea Carbon Cycling in a Changing Climate (United States)

    Schreiner, K. M.; Bruner, V. J.; Kessler, J. D.


    Riverine delivery of terrestrial organic carbon (OC) and subsequent burial in coastal margins is a significant sink for OC on Earth. The amount of fresh OC compared to old OC buried in coastal margins affects the long-term ratio of O2 to CO2 in the atmosphere. And yet, the fate of OC on marine shelves is not well known. Analysis of the fate of terrestrial OC from Arctic rivers are especially important, as half of the global soil carbon pool resides in the top few meters of Arctic permafrost soils, and much of this OC, more than twice the amount of carbon currently residing in the atmospheric CO2 pool, is thousands of years old and under threat of disturbance from a warming Arctic climate. Flux of this old, deeply-buried permafrost OC to coastal sediments has already been noted in both the Russian and Alaskan Arctic. This study focuses on OC delivered by the Colville River, a medium-sized North American Arctic river that drains the North Slope of Alaska, and has been previously shown to be an important source of extremely old OC to coastal Beaufort Sea sediments. Here we report stable carbon isotopes and radiocarbon ages of particulate OC (POC), dissolved OC (DOC), and surface sediments from the Beaufort Sea near the Colville River outflow and nearby Simpson Lagoon from samples collected in August 2015. In general, DOC ages are younger than POC ages, and both have stable isotope signatures indicative of terrestrial C3 sources. Waters with higher concentrations of DOC tend to have younger radiocarbon ages and more enriched stable isotope signatures, indicating the presence of aquatic primary production. These data represent some of the first water column radiocarbon signatures to be reported from an Arctic river the size of the Colville; while the six largest Arctic rivers have been well studied over the past few decades, much less data is available for small and medium sized Arctic rivers.

  14. The Contemporary Consultant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olson, Thomas; Poulfelt, Flemming; Greiner, Larry

    This book complements The handbook of Management Consulting: The Contemporary Consultant: Insights from Leading Experts, 1e but can also be studied separately. The book consists of 20 cases including Harvard and Stanford cases. The cases present the broad range of topics that are pertinent to cur...... current management issues facing consulting firms. These cases, together with the handbook, will prepare consultants and other business managers for a successful future in a highly competitive consulting environment.......This book complements The handbook of Management Consulting: The Contemporary Consultant: Insights from Leading Experts, 1e but can also be studied separately. The book consists of 20 cases including Harvard and Stanford cases. The cases present the broad range of topics that are pertinent...... to current management consulting. Each of the four parts of the text presents a cogent introduction by the editors, delineating topics that are critical for today's consultants to understand. The cases represent major practice areas of consulting and afford new insights into change processes and other...

  15. China and the Arctic: An Opportunity for the U.S. (United States)


    of the lack of China’s sovereignty in the Arctic.15 Most academic writings focus on China’s need to voice an opinion concerning sea routes...effects that climate change in the Arctic will have on food production and extreme weather; (b) to ensure access at a reasonable cost to Arctic...21 Studying climate change and the Arctic will enable scholars to predict consequences to the environment, and potential effects on Chinese food

  16. Multinational Experiment 7. Maritime Security Region: The Arctic (United States)


    increasingly affect human communities , natural systems, and infrastructure. Resources and Trade Routes in the Arctic Climate change in the Far...capelin, herring, navaga, and wolffishes. Some areas of the Arctic and sub-Arctic suffer from high levels of illegal fishing and overfishing , and...maneuvering, joint air defense drills, communications and search and rescue operations. The exercise is normally held every second year. 8 In

  17. Changes in aerobic performance, body composition, and physical activity in polar explorers during a year-long stay at the polar station in the Arctic (United States)

    Maciejczyk, Marcin; Araźny, Andrzej; Opyrchał, Marta


    The aim of this study was to evaluate changes in physical activity, aerobic performance, and body composition in polar explorers during a 1-year stay at the polar station. The study group consisted of 10 people, including 8 men and 2 women. Aerobic performance (maximal oxygen uptake), physical activity, body mass, and composition were evaluated for the polar explores of the Polish Polar Station prior to departure, and then during their stay at the station for a period of 1 year. The measurements were performed every 3 months. Compared to the measurements taken before going to the polar station, aerobic performance significantly ( p = 0.02) increased in the first 3 months of residing at the polar station and then remained relatively stable for the following duration of the stay. In the first 3 months of the stay, we also observed the highest level of physical activity in participants. In the polar explorers, no significant ( p > 0.05) body fatness changes were noted. Nonetheless, lean body mass, body mass, and BMI significantly increased compared to the measurements taken before departure to the polar station. The greatest changes in aerobic performance, physical activity, and body composition were observed during the first 3 months after arrival to the Arctic and then, despite changing biometeorological conditions, they remained stable for the next months of the stay. We recommend the introduction of a physical preparation program before departing to the polar station to improve explorers' physical fitness, so that they can meet the physical challenges they are faced with immediately after arrival to the polar station.

  18. Assessment of climate and land use change impacts on surface water runoff and connectivity in a continuous permafrost catchment on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska (United States)

    Gaedeke, A.; Arp, C. D.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Daanen, R. P.; Whitman, M. S.


    A changing climate is leading to rapid transformations of hydrological processes in low-gradient Arctic terrestrial ecosystems which are dominated by lakes and ponds, wetlands, polygonised tundra, and connecting stream and river networks. The aim of this study is to gain a deeper understanding of the impacts of climate and land use change on surface water availability and connectivity by utilizing the process-based, spatially distributed hydrological model WaSiM. Crea Creek Watershed (30 km2), which is located in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) was chosen as study area because of its permafrost landforms (bedfast and floating ice lakes, high and low centered polygons), existing observational data (discharge, snow depth, and meteorological variables since 2009), and resource management issues related to permafrost degradation and aquatic habitat dynamics. Foremost of concern is oil development scheduled to begin starting in 2017 with the construction of a permanent road and drilling pad directly within the Crea Watershed. An interdisciplinary team consisting of scientists and regional stakeholders defined the following scenarios to be simulated using WaSiM: (1) industrial development (impact of water removal from lakes (winter) for ice road construction on downstream (summer) runoff), (2) permanent road construction to allow oil companies access to develop and extract petroleum, and (3) potential modes of climate change including warmer, snowier winters and prolonged drought during summers. Downscaled meteorological output from the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) will be used as the forcing for analysis of climate scenarios alone and for assessment of land-use responses under varying climate scenarios. Our results will provide regional stakeholders with information on the impacts of climate and land use change on surface water connectivity that affects aquatic habitat, as well as lake hydrologic interactions with permafrost. These finding

  19. A Prince's tribute...and trial. Monaco's Prince Albert II followed the footsteps of his great great grandfather when he ventured the Arctic Archipelago to trace climate change, this time with IAEA Marine scientists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lodding, L.


    Monaco's Prince Albert II followed the footsteps of his great great grandfather when he ventured to the Arctic Archipelago to track climate change, this time with IAEA Marine scientists. He undertook this trip to draw global attention to the environmental damage to the Arctic regions caused by global warming. Although far away from industrialized areas, Svalbard Island is eminently suitable to observe the evolution of climate change and long-range pollutants transported from northern European countries by water currents and from North America by winds. Using nuclear techniques, it is hoped that some of the causes of climate change can be unlocked. The first of these studies was undertaken to evaluate the shell laminations of a very long-lived marine bivalve mollusc, the Ocean Quahog. The mollusc, with a life expectancy well over a century, acts as a recording of temperature variations and water chemistry. The second project aimed at determining levels of contaminates in marine zooplankton in remote arctic environments for comparison with other climatic regions

  20. Three years exclusion of large herbivores in a high arctic mire in NE Greenland resulted in changed vegetation density and greenhouse gas emission and uptake (United States)

    Falk, Julie M.; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Christensen, Torben R.; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Jackowicz-Korczynski, Marcin; Ström, Lena


    showed that there were more mosses and old biomass inside exclosures. Conclusions: Removing muskoxen grazing and physical presence has dramatic effects on the ecosystem. As there is no trampling inside the exclosures the mosses become more dominating and starts to grow upwards, due to less compaction. As there is no consumption of the vascular plants, all the old biomass remains on the ground surface, most likely leading to light limitation of the vascular plants and they therefore decrease in number of tillers and in green leaves. The thicker moss layer forces the vascular plants to grow taller, as seen inside the exclosures. The decrease of CO2 uptake can partly by explained by the lower number of vascular plants, while the decrease in CH4 emission most likely is connected to lower CO2 uptake, less vascular plants and lower overall carbon allocation below ground and hereby less root exudation. The future of the muskoxen in a changing arctic environment are uncertain, this experiment is pointing towards the potentially large effect that herbivory has on the carbon balance of natural ecosystems in the Arctic.

  1. A 350 ka record of climate change from Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic: refining the pattern of climate modes by means of cluster analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Frank


    Full Text Available Rock magnetic, biochemical and inorganic records of the sediment cores PG1351 and Lz1024 from Lake El'gygytgyn, Chukotka peninsula, Far East Russian Arctic, were subject to a hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis in order to refine and extend the pattern of climate modes as defined by Melles et al. (2007. Cluster analysis of the data obtained from both cores yielded similar results, differentiating clearly between the four climate modes warm, peak warm, cold and dry, and cold and moist. In addition, two transitional phases were identified, representing the early stages of a cold phase and slightly colder conditions during a warm phase. The statistical approach can thus be used to resolve gradual changes in the sedimentary units as an indicator of available oxygen in the hypolimnion in greater detail. Based upon cluster analyses on core Lz1024, the published succession of climate modes in core PG1351, covering the last 250 ka, was modified and extended back to 350 ka. Comparison to the marine oxygen isotope (δ18O stack LR04 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005 and the summer insolation at 67.5° N, with the extended Lake El'gygytgyn parameter records of magnetic susceptibility (κLF, total organic carbon content (TOC and the chemical index of alteration (CIA; Minyuk et al., 2007, revealed that all stages back to marine isotope stage (MIS 10 and most of the substages are clearly reflected in the pattern derived from the cluster analysis.

  2. Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves (United States)

    Cavalieri, D. J.; Haekkinen, S.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)


    Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave 1 pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach for determining significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

  3. Loss of sea ice in the Arctic. (United States)

    Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A


    The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

  4. Collaboration across the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huppert, Verena Gisela; Chuffart, Romain François R.


    The Arctic is witnessing the rise of a new paradigm caused by an increase in pan-Arctic collaborations which co-exist with the region’s traditional linkages with the South. Using an analysis of concrete examples of regional collaborations in the Arctic today in the fields of education, health...... and infrastructure, this paper questions whether pan-Arctic collaborations in the Arctic are more viable than North-South collaborations, and explores the reasons behind and the foreseeable consequences of such collaborations. It shows that the newly emerging East-West paradigm operates at the same time...... as the traditional North-South paradigm, with no signs of the East-West paradigm being more viable in the foreseeable future. However, pan-Arctic collaboration, both due to pragmatic reasons and an increased awareness of similarities, is likely to increase in the future. The increased regionalization process...

  5. From the field to classrooms: Scientists and educators collaborating to develop K-12 lessons on arctic carbon cycling and climate change that align with Next Generation Science Standards, and informal outreach programs that bring authentic data to informal audiences. (United States)

    Brinker, R.; Cory, R. M.


    Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) calls for students across grade levels to understand climate change and its impacts. To achieve this goal, the NSF-sponsored PolarTREC program paired an educator with scientists studying carbon cycling in the Arctic. The data collection and fieldwork performed by the team will form the basis of hands-on science learning in the classroom and will be incorporated into informal outreach sessions in the community. Over a 16-day period, the educator was stationed at Toolik Field Station in the High Arctic. (Toolik is run by the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Institute of Arctic Biology.) She participated in a project that analyzed the effects of sunlight and microbial content on carbon production in Artic watersheds. Data collected will be used to introduce the following NGSS standards into the middle-school science curriculum: 1) Construct a scientific explanation based on evidence. 2) Develop a model to explain cycling of water. 3) Develop and use a model to describe phenomena. 4) Analyze and interpret data. 5) A change in one system causes and effect in other systems. Lessons can be telescoped to meet the needs of classrooms in higher or lower grades. Through these activities, students will learn strategies to model an aspect of carbon cycling, interpret authentic scientific data collected in the field, and conduct geoscience research on carbon cycling. Community outreach sessions are also an effective method to introduce and discuss the importance of geoscience education. Informal discussions of firsthand experience gained during fieldwork can help communicate to a lay audience the biological, physical, and chemical aspects of the arctic carbon cycle and the impacts of climate change on these features. Outreach methods will also include novel use of online tools to directly connect audiences with scientists in an effective and time-efficient manner.

  6. Recurrent ischemia across the spectrum of acute coronary syndromes: prevalence and prognostic significance of (re-)infarction and ST-segment changes in a large contemporary registry. (United States)

    Yan, Andrew T; Steg, Philippe Gabriel; Fitzgerald, Gordon; Feldman, Laurent J; Eagle, Kim A; Gore, Joel M; Anderson, Frederick A; López-Sendón, Jose; Gurfinkel, Enrique P; Brieger, David; Goodman, Shaun G


    There are limited recent data on the prevalence and potentially different adverse impact of the various types of recurrent ischemia (RI) in unselected patients with acute coronary syndromes(ACS). We examined the clinical features and treatment associated with, and the differential prognostic impact of, the various types of RI in unselected patients across the broad spectrum of ACS in the contemporary era. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) was a prospective, multinational registry of patients hospitalized for ACS. Data were collected on standardized case report forms. Of the 29,400 ACS patients enrolled in May 2000-March 2007, 21% developed RI; 2.4%, 4.9%, and 16% had myocardial (re-)infarction [(re-)MI], RI with ST-segment changes, and RI without ST-segment changes (not mutually exclusive), respectively. Rates of in-hospital mortality and complications, and 6-month mortality were significantly higher among patients with RI compared to those without; the rates were highest for patients who developed (re-)MI, followed by those with RI and ST-segment changes. After adjusting for other validated prognosticators in the GRACE risk score, all three types of RI retained an independent association with both higher in-hospital and post-discharge 6-month mortality. Early revascularization was associated with lower in-hospital mortality only in the group with (re-)MI (P for interaction=0.003). Despite the current use of intensive medical therapies, RI remains a common and serious consequence across the spectrum of ACS. Different types of RI confer a variable adverse prognostic impact. Re-MI is associated with the worst outcome, which appears to be mitigated by early revascularization. Our findings underscore the persistent need to improve the treatment of ACS. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Status and Impacts of Arctic Freshwater Export (United States)

    Haine, T. W. N.


    Large freshwater anomalies clearly exist in the Arctic Ocean. For example, liquid freshwater has accumulated in the Beaufort Gyre in the decade of the 2000s compared to 1980-2000, with an extra ≈5000 km3—about 25%—being stored. The sources of freshwater to the Arctic from precipitation and runoff have increased between these periods (most of the evidence comes from models). Despite flux increases from 2001 to 2011, it is uncertain if the marine freshwater source through Bering Strait for the 2000s has changed, as observations in the 1980s and 1990s are incomplete. The marine freshwater fluxes draining the Arctic through Fram and Davis straits are also insignificantly different. In this way, the balance of sources and sinks of freshwater to the Arctic, Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), and Baffin Bay shifted to about 1200±730 km3yr-1 freshening the region, on average, during the 2000s. The observed accumulation of liquid freshwater is consistent with this increased supply and the loss of freshwater from sea ice (Figure, right). Evidence exists that such discharges can impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and hence Atlantic sector climate. Nevertheless, it appears that the observed AMOC variability since 2004, when high quality measurements began, is not attributable to anthropogenic influence. This work is based on, and updated from, Haine et al. (2015), Carmack et al. (2016), and Haine (2016). Haine, T. W. N. Ocean science: Vagaries of Atlantic overturning. Nature Geoscience, 9, 479-480, 10.1038/ngeo2748, 2016. T. W. N. Haine et al., Arctic Freshwater Export: Status, Mechanisms, and Prospects, Global Planetary Change, 125, 13-35, 10.1016/j.glopacha.2014.11.013, 2015. E. Carmack et al., Fresh water and its role in the Arctic Marine System: sources, disposition, storage, export, and physical and biogeochemical consequences in the Arctic and global oceans. J. G. Res. Biogeosciences, 10.1002/2015JG003140, 2016.

  8. ARCTOX: a pan-Arctic sampling network to track mercury contamination across Arctic marine food webs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fort, Jerome; Helgason, Halfdan; Amelineau, Francoise

    and is still a source of major environmental concerns. In that context, providing a large-scale and comprehensive understanding of the Arctic marine food-web contamination is essential to better apprehend impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on the exposure of Arctic species and humans to Hg....... In 2015, an international sampling network (ARCTOX) has been established, allowing the collection seabird samples all around the Arctic. Seabirds are indeed good indicators of Hg contamination of marine food webs at large spatial scale. Gathering researchers from 10 countries, ARCTOX allowed......Arctic marine ecosystems are threatened by new risks of Hg contamination under the combined effects of climate change and human activities. Rapid change of the cryosphere might for instance release large amounts of Hg trapped in sea-ice, permafrost and terrestrial glaciers over the last decades...

  9. Arctic wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peltola, E. [Kemijoki Oy (Finland); Holttinen, H.; Marjaniemi, M. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Tammelin, B. [Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (Finland)


    Arctic wind energy research was aimed at adapting existing wind technologies to suit the arctic climatic conditions in Lapland. Project research work included meteorological measurements, instrument development, development of a blade heating system for wind turbines, load measurements and modelling of ice induced loads on wind turbines, together with the development of operation and maintenance practices in arctic conditions. As a result the basis now exists for technically feasible and economically viable wind energy production in Lapland. New and marketable products, such as blade heating systems for wind turbines and meteorological sensors for arctic conditions, with substantial export potential, have also been developed. (orig.)

  10. Arctic wind energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peltola, E.; Holttinen, H.; Marjaniemi, M.; Tammelin, B.


    Arctic wind energy research was aimed at adapting existing wind technologies to suit the arctic climatic conditions in Lapland. Project research work included meteorological measurements, instrument development, development of a blade heating system for wind turbines, load measurements and modelling of ice induced loads on wind turbines, together with the development of operation and maintenance practices in arctic conditions. As a result the basis now exists for technically feasible and economically viable wind energy production in Lapland. New and marketable products, such as blade heating systems for wind turbines and meteorological sensors for arctic conditions, with substantial export potential, have also been developed. (orig.)

  11. Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice? (United States)

    Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois


    Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

  12. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in Arctic environments: indicator contaminants for assessing local and remote anthropogenic sources in a pristine ecosystem in change. (United States)

    Kallenborn, Roland; Brorström-Lundén, Eva; Reiersen, Lars-Otto; Wilson, Simon


    A first review on occurrence and distribution of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) is presented. The literature survey conducted here was initiated by the current Assessment of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). This first review on the occurrence and environmental profile of PPCPs in the Arctic identified the presence of 110 related substances in the Arctic environment based on the reports from scientific publications, national and regional assessments and surveys, as well as academic research studies (i.e., PhD theses). PPCP residues were reported in virtually all environmental compartments from coastal seawater to high trophic level biota. For Arctic environments, domestic and municipal wastes as well as sewage are identified as primary release sources. However, the absence of modern waste water treatment plants (WWTPs), even in larger settlements in the Arctic, is resulting in relatively high release rates for selected PPCPs into the receiving Arctic (mainly) aquatic environment. Pharmaceuticals are designed with specific biochemical functions as a part of an integrated therapeutically procedure. This biochemical effect may cause unwanted environmental toxicological effects on non-target organisms when the compound is released into the environment. In the Arctic environments, pharmaceutical residues are released into low to very low ambient temperatures mainly into aqueous environments. Low biodegradability and, thus, prolonged residence time must be expected for the majority of the pharmaceuticals entering the aquatic system. The environmental toxicological consequence of the continuous PPCP release is, thus, expected to be different in the Arctic compared to the temperate regions of the globe. Exposure risks for Arctic human populations due to consumption of contaminated local fish and invertebrates or through exposure to resistant microbial communities cannot be excluded. However, the scientific results reported and

  13. Arctic air pollution: Challenges and opportunities for the next decade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.R. Arnold


    Full Text Available Abstract The Arctic is a sentinel of global change. This region is influenced by multiple physical and socio-economic drivers and feedbacks, impacting both the natural and human environment. Air pollution is one such driver that impacts Arctic climate change, ecosystems and health but significant uncertainties still surround quantification of these effects. Arctic air pollution includes harmful trace gases (e.g. tropospheric ozone and particles (e.g. black carbon, sulphate and toxic substances (e.g. polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons that can be transported to the Arctic from emission sources located far outside the region, or emitted within the Arctic from activities including shipping, power production, and other industrial activities. This paper qualitatively summarizes the complex science issues motivating the creation of a new international initiative, PACES (air Pollution in the Arctic: Climate, Environment and Societies. Approaches for coordinated, international and interdisciplinary research on this topic are described with the goal to improve predictive capability via new understanding about sources, processes, feedbacks and impacts of Arctic air pollution. Overarching research actions are outlined, in which we describe our recommendations for 1 the development of trans-disciplinary approaches combining social and economic research with investigation of the chemical and physical aspects of Arctic air pollution; 2 increasing the quality and quantity of observations in the Arctic using long-term monitoring and intensive field studies, both at the surface and throughout the troposphere; and 3 developing improved predictive capability across a range of spatial and temporal scales.

  14. Changes in atmospheric circulation and the Arctic Oscillation preserved within a millennial length reconstruction of summer cloud cover from northern Fennoscandia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, Giles H.F.; McCarroll, Danny; Loader, Neil J.; Gagen, Mary H.; Demmler, Joanne C. [Swansea University, Department of Geography, Swansea (United Kingdom); Kirchhefer, Andreas J. [University of Tromsoe, Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Tromsoe (Norway); Dendrooekologen, Tromsoe (Norway)


    Cloud cover currently represents the single greatest source of uncertainty in General Circulation Models. Stable carbon isotope ratios ({delta}{sup 13}C) from tree-rings, in areas of low moisture stress, are likely to be primarily controlled by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and therefore should provide a proxy record for cloud cover or sunshine; indeed this association has previously been demonstrated experimentally for Scots pine in Fennoscandia, with sunlight explaining ca 90% of the variance in photosynthesis and temperature only ca 4%. We present a statistically verifiable 1011-year reconstruction of cloud cover from a well replicated, annually-resolved {delta}{sup 13}C record from Forfjord in coastal northwestern Norway. This reconstruction exhibits considerable variability in cloud cover over the past millennium, including extended sunny periods during the cool seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and warm cloudy periods during the eleventh, early fifteenth and twentieth centuries. We find that while a generally positive relationship persists between sunshine and temperature at high-frequency, at lower (multi-decadal) frequencies the relationship is more often a negative one, with cool periods being sunny (most notably the Little Ice Age period from 1600 to 1750 CE) and warm periods more cloudy (e.g. the mediaeval and the twentieth century). We conclude that these long-term changes may be caused by changes in the dominant circulation mode, likely to be associated with the Arctic Oscillation. There is also strong circumstantial evidence that prolonged periods of high summer cloud cover, with low PAR and probably high precipitation, may be in part responsible for major European famines caused by crop failures. (orig.)

  15. Method to characterize directional changes in Arctic sea ice drift and associated deformation due to synoptic atmospheric variations using Lagrangian dispersion statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. V. Lukovich


    Full Text Available A framework is developed to assess the directional changes in sea ice drift paths and associated deformation processes in response to atmospheric forcing. The framework is based on Lagrangian statistical analyses leveraging particle dispersion theory which tells us whether ice drift is in a subdiffusive, diffusive, ballistic, or superdiffusive dynamical regime using single-particle (absolute dispersion statistics. In terms of sea ice deformation, the framework uses two- and three-particle dispersion to characterize along- and across-shear transport as well as differential kinematic parameters. The approach is tested with GPS beacons deployed in triplets on sea ice in the southern Beaufort Sea at varying distances from the coastline in fall of 2009 with eight individual events characterized. One transition in particular follows the sea level pressure (SLP high on 8 October in 2009 while the sea ice drift was in a superdiffusive dynamic regime. In this case, the dispersion scaling exponent (which is a slope between single-particle absolute dispersion of sea ice drift and elapsed time changed from superdiffusive (α ∼ 3 to ballistic (α ∼ 2 as the SLP was rounding its maximum pressure value. Following this shift between regimes, there was a loss in synchronicity between sea ice drift and atmospheric motion patterns. While this is only one case study, the outcomes suggest similar studies be conducted on more buoy arrays to test momentum transfer linkages between storms and sea ice responses as a function of dispersion regime states using scaling exponents. The tools and framework developed in this study provide a unique characterization technique to evaluate these states with respect to sea ice processes in general. Application of these techniques can aid ice hazard assessments and weather forecasting in support of marine transportation and indigenous use of near-shore Arctic areas.

  16. The Bering Strait Region: A Window into Changing Benthic Populations in Response to Varying Subarctic-Arctic Connectivity and Ecosystem Dynamics (United States)

    Grebmeier, J. M.; Cooper, L. W.; Moore, S. E.


    A key ecological organizing principle for the northern Bering Sea and the adjoining southern Chukchi Sea just north of Bering Strait is that the shallow, seasonally productive waters lead to strong pelagic-benthic coupling to the sea floor, with deposition of fresh chlorophyll coinciding with the spring bloom as sea ice retreats. Both in situ production and advection of upstream phytodetritus to these regions support persistent biological hotspots that connect benthic prey to upper trophic benthivores. This northern marine ecosystem is dominated by marine macroinvertebrates (e.g. clams, polychaetes, sipunculids, and amphipods) that feed on the high production deposited rapidly to the seafloor, which in turn serve as food resources for diving mammals and seabirds, such as gray whales, bearded seals, eiders, and walruses. Between St. Lawrence Island and Bering Strait and northwards into the Chukchi Sea, the persistence of seasonal sea ice has significantly declined over the past two decades, and along with warming seawater temperatures, these changes have potential ramifications to ecosystem structure. Times-series data over the last 25 years indicate that these regions have experienced a northward shift in macrofaunal composition and a decline in core benthic biomass that matches patterns of reduced sea ice, warming seawater, and changing sediment grain size that relates to varying current patterns. This presentation will discuss these data in the context of both process studies from the region and results from the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO), an international network of time series transects that is providing a framework to evaluate status and trends on a latitudinal bases in the Pacific Arctic region.

  17. Arctic cloud-climate feedbacks: On relationships between Arctic clouds, sea ice, and lower tropospheric stability (United States)

    Taylor, P. C.; Boeke, R.; Hegyi, B.


    Arctic low clouds strongly affect the Arctic surface energy budget. Through this impact Arctic low clouds influence other important aspects of the Arctic climate system, namely surface and atmospheric temperature, sea ice extent and thickness, and atmospheric circulation. Arctic clouds are in turn influenced by these Arctic climate system elements creating the potential for Arctic cloud-climate feedbacks. To further our understanding of the potential for Arctic cloud-climate feedbacks, we quantify the influence of atmospheric state on the surface cloud radiative effect (CRE). In addition, we quantify the covariability between surface CRE and sea ice concentration (SIC). This paper builds on previous research using instantaneous, active remote sensing satellite footprint data from the NASA A-Train. First, the results indicate significant differences in the surface CRE when stratified by atmospheric state. Second, a statistically insignificant covariability is found between CRE and SIC for most atmospheric conditions. Third, we find a statistically significant increase in the average surface longwave CRE at lower SIC values in fall. Specifically, a +3-5 W m-2 larger longwave CRE is found over footprints with 0% versus 100% SIC. Because systematic changes on the order of 1 W m-2 are sufficient to explain the observed long-term reductions in sea ice extent, our results indicate a potentially significant amplifying sea ice-cloud feedback that could delay the fall freeze-up and influence the variability in sea ice extent and volume, under certain meteorological conditions. Our results also suggest that a small change in the frequency of occurrence of atmosphere states may yield a larger Arctic cloud feedback than any cloud response to sea ice.

  18. Analysis of trophic interactions reveals highly plastic response to climate change in a tri-trophic High-Arctic ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Lars O.; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Hoye, Toke T.


    As a response to current climate changes, individual species have changed various biological traits, illustrating an inherent phenotypic plasticity. However, as species are embedded in an ecological network characterised by multiple consumer-resource interactions, ecological mismatches are likely...... to arise when interacting species do not respond homogeneously. The approach of biological networks analysis calls for the use of structural equation modelling (SEM), a multidimensional analytical setup that has proven particularly useful for analysing multiple interactions across trophic levels. Here we...

  19. Contemporary sea level rise. (United States)

    Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William


    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

  20. Arctic ecosystem responses to a warming climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Lars O.

    sheet, loss of multiannual sea-ice and significant advances in snowmelt days. The biotic components of the arctic ecosystem have also been affected by the rapid changes in climate, for instance resulting in the collapse of the collared lemming cycle, advances in spring flowering and changes in the intra...... biotic interactions. Hence, through the use of up-to-date multivariate statistical tools, this Ph.D. study has been concerned with analyzing how the observed rapid climate changes are affecting the arctic ecosystems. The primary tool has been the implementation of structural equation modeling (SEM) which....... Additionally, the study demonstrated that climate effects had distinct direct and indirect effects on different trophic levels, indicating cascading effects of climate through the trophic system. Results suggest that the Arctic is being significantly affected by the observed climate changes and depending...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Agafonova


    Full Text Available Changes in rivers ice regime features and the climatic resources of the winter period were examined for the territory of Russia northward from 60° N. Datasets from 220 gauging stations for the period from 1960 to 2014 have been used in the study both with the results of numerical experiments carried out using climate models in the framework of the international project CMIP5. A change in the duration of the ice phenomena period, the ice cover period and the maximum thickness of ice on the rivers for the scenario RCP 8.5 by the end of the 21st century for a spatial grid with a distance between the nodes of 1.75x1.75 degrees in latitude and longitude has been estimated. We elaborated series of the maps. Main features of the ice regime changes are consistent with the expected changes in the duration of the cold season and the accumulated negative air temperatures. The significant changes are expected for the rivers of the Kola Peninsula and the lower reaches of the rivers Northern Dvina and Pechora, whereas the lowest changes - for the center of Eastern Siberia. 

  2. Contemporary jewelry definitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlon Aparecido Mercaldi


    Full Text Available Contemporary jewelry terminology is open to many criticism and weaknesses as it is confronted with the classic definition of jewelry and also often attached to the historical widespread idea of adornment and jewelry to modernity. Therefore one of the this article issues is to approach about what it is contemporary jewelry and how it can be defined. Thus, we present the topics related to the jewel discussion in contemporary times that are organized into a set of assumptions and approaches that help us provide an overview about the contemporary jewelry.

  3. The great challenges in Arctic Ocean paleoceanography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stein, Ruediger


    Despite the importance of the Arctic in the climate system, the data base we have from this area is still very weak, and large parts of the climate history have not been recovered at all in sedimentary sections. In order to fill this gap in knowledge, international, multidisciplinary expeditions and projects for scientific drilling/coring in the Arctic Ocean are needed. Key areas and approaches for drilling and recovering undisturbed and complete sedimentary sequences are depth transects across the major ocean ridge systems, i.e., the Lomonosov Ridge, the Alpha-Mendeleev Ridge, and the Chukchi Plateau/Northwind Ridge, the Beaufort, Kara and Laptev sea continental margins, as well as the major Arctic gateways towards the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The new detailed climate records from the Arctic Ocean spanning time intervals from the Late Cretaceous/Paleogene Greenhouse world to the Neogene-Quaternary Icehouse world and representing short- and long-term climate variability on scales from 10 to 10 6 years, will give new insights into our understanding of the Arctic Ocean within the global climate system and provide an opportunity to test the performance of climate models used to predict future climate change. With this, studying the Arctic Ocean is certainly one of the major challenges in climate research for the coming decades.

  4. Technical Report 14-11 Overview of Danish Contributions to Monitoring of SLCPs in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsholm, Ulrik Smith; Krogh Andersen, Katrine; Christensen, Tina


    In the Tromsø Declaration (2009) the Arctic Council noted the role that shorter-lived climate forcers such as black carbon, methane and tropospheric ozone precursors may play in Arctic climate change, and recognized that reductions of emissions have the potential to slow the rate of Arctic snow...

  5. “An Arctic Great Power”? Recent Developments in Danish Arctic Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rahbek-Clemmensen, Jon


    Denmark has been a firm advocate for Arctic cooperation in the recent decade, most importantly as the initiator of the 2008 Ilulissat meeting. Two new strategic publications – a foreign policy report (Danish Diplomacy and Defence in a Time of Change) and a defense report (The Ministry of Defence......’s Future Activities in the Arctic), which were published in May and June 2016 –highlight the Kingdom of Denmark’s status as “an Arctic great power” and the importance of pursuing Danish interests, which could indicate a shift away from a cooperation-oriented policy. This article investigates whether...... the documents represent a break in Danish Arctic policy. It argues that the two documents represent continuation, rather than change. They show that the High North continues to become steadily more important on the Danish foreign policy agenda, although the region remains just one of several regional priorities...

  6. The impact of temperature change on the activity and community composition of sulfate-reducing bacteria in arctic versus temperate marine sediments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robador, Alberto; Brüchert, Volker; Jørgensen, Bo Barker


    Arctic regions may be particularly sensitive to climate warming and, consequently, rates of carbon mineralization in warming marine sediment may also be affected. Using long-term (24 months) incubation experiments at 0°C, 10°C and 20°C, the temperature response of metabolic activity and community...... composition of sulfate-reducing bacteria were studied in the permanently cold sediment of north-western Svalbard (Arctic Ocean) and compared with a temperate habitat with seasonally varying temperature (German Bight, North Sea). Short-term 35S-sulfate tracer incubations in a temperature-gradient block...... (between -3.5°C and +40°C) were used to assess variations in sulfate reduction rates during the course of the experiment. Warming of arctic sediment resulted in a gradual increase of the temperature optima (Topt) for sulfate reduction suggesting a positive selection of psychrotolerant/mesophilic sulfate...

  7. Arctic carbon cycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christensen, Torben R; Rysgaard, SØREN; Bendtsen, JØRGEN; Else, Brent; Glud, Ronnie N; van Huissteden, J.; Parmentier, F.J.W.; Sachs, Torsten; Vonk, J.E.


    The marine Arctic is considered a net carbon sink, with large regional differences in uptake rates. More regional modelling and observational studies are required to reduce the uncertainty among current estimates. Robust projections for how the Arctic Ocean carbon sink may evolve in the future are

  8. The Arctic in the Twenty-First Century: Changing Biogeochemical Linkages across a Paraglacial Landscape of Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, N. John; Saros, Jasmine E.; Bullard, Joanna E.


    their associated herbivores) to freshwater and oligosaline lakes. These ecosystems are linked by a dynamic glacio-fluvial-aeolian geomorphic system that transports water, geological material, organic carbon and nutrients from the glacier surface to adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems. This paraglacial system......The Kangerlussuaq area of southwest Greenland encompasses diverse ecological, geomorphic, and climate gradients that function over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Ecosystems range from the microbial communities on the ice sheet and moisture-stressed terrestrial vegetation (and...... is now subject to substantial change because of rapid regional warming since 2000. Here, we describe changes in the eco- and geomorphic systems at a range of timescales and explore rapid future change in the links that integrate these systems. We highlight the importance of cross-system subsidies...

  9. Circum-Arctic Changes in the Flow of Glaciers and Ice Caps from Satellite SAR Data between the 1990s and 2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tazio Strozzi


    Full Text Available We computed circum-Arctic surface velocity maps of glaciers and ice caps over the Canadian Arctic, Svalbard and the Russian Arctic for at least two times between the 1990s and 2017 using satellite SAR data. Our analyses are mainly performed with offset-tracking of ALOS-1 PALSAR-1 (2007–2011 and Sentinel-1 (2015–2017 data. In certain cases JERS-1 SAR (1994–1998, TerraSAR-X (2008–2012, Radarsat-2 (2009–2016 and ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 (2015–2016 data were used to fill-in spatial or temporal gaps. Validation of the latest Sentinel-1 results was accomplished by means of SAR data at higher spatial resolution (Radarsat-2 Wide Ultra Fine and ground-based measurements. In general, we observe a deceleration of flow velocities for the major tidewater glaciers in the Canadian Arctic and an increase in frontal velocity along with a retreat of frontal positions over Svalbard and the Russian Arctic. However, all regions have strong accelerations for selected glaciers. The latter developments can be well traced based on the very high temporal sampling of Sentinel-1 acquisitions since 2015, revealing new insights in glacier dynamics. For example, surges on Spitsbergen (e.g., Negribreen, Nathorsbreen, Penckbreen and Strongbreen have a different characteristic and timing than those over Eastern Austfonna and Edgeoya (e.g., Basin 3, Basin 2 and Stonebreen. Events similar to those ongoing on Eastern Austofonna were also observed over the Vavilov Ice Cap on Severnaya Zemlya and possibly Simony Glacier on Franz-Josef Land. Collectively, there seems to be a recently increasing number of glaciers with frontal destabilization over Eastern Svalbard and the Russian Arctic compared to the 1990s.

  10. Arctic Haze Analysis (United States)

    Mei, Linlu; Xue, Yong


    The Arctic atmosphere is perturbed by nature/anthropogenic aerosol sources known as the Arctic haze, was firstly observed in 1956 by J. Murray Mitchell in Alaska (Mitchell, 1956). Pacyna and Shaw (1992) summarized that Arctic haze is a mixture of anthropogenic and natural pollutants from a variety of sources in different geographical areas at altitudes from 2 to 4 or 5 km while the source for layers of polluted air at altitudes below 2.5 km mainly comes from episodic transportation of anthropogenic sources situated closer to the Arctic. Arctic haze of low troposphere was found to be of a very strong seasonal variation characterized by a summer minimum and a winter maximum in Alaskan (Barrie, 1986; Shaw, 1995) and other Arctic region (Xie and Hopke, 1999). An anthropogenic factor dominated by together with metallic species like Pb, Zn, V, As, Sb, In, etc. and nature source such as sea salt factor consisting mainly of Cl, Na, and K (Xie and Hopke, 1999), dust containing Fe, Al and so on (Rahn et al.,1977). Black carbon and soot can also be included during summer time because of the mix of smoke from wildfires. The Arctic air mass is a unique meteorological feature of the troposphere characterized by sub-zero temperatures, little precipitation, stable stratification that prevents strong vertical mixing and low levels of solar radiations (Barrie, 1986), causing less pollutants was scavenged, the major revival pathway for particulates from the atmosphere in Arctic (Shaw, 1981, 1995; Heintzenberg and Larssen, 1983). Due to the special meteorological condition mentioned above, we can conclude that Eurasian is the main contributor of the Arctic pollutants and the strong transport into the Arctic from Eurasia during winter caused by the high pressure of the climatologically persistent Siberian high pressure region (Barrie, 1986). The paper intends to address the atmospheric characteristics of Arctic haze by comparing the clear day and haze day using different dataset

  11. The nature of spatial transitions in the Arctic. (United States)

    H. E. Epstein; J. Beringer; W. A. Gould; A. H. Lloyd; C. D. Thompson; F. S. Chapin III; G. J. Michaelson; C. L. Ping; T. S. Rupp; D. A. Walker


    Aim Describe the spatial and temporal properties of transitions in the Arctic and develop a conceptual understanding of the nature of these spatial transitions in the face of directional environmental change. Location Arctic tundra ecosystems of the North Slope of Alaska and the tundraforest region of the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Methods We synthesize information from...

  12. A veterinary perspective on One Health in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Christian; Letcher, Robert James; Jenssen, Bjørn Munro


    Exposure to long-range transported industrial chemicals, climate change and diseases is posing a risk to the overall health and populations of Arctic wildlife. Since local communities are relying on the same marine food web as marine mammals in the Arctic, it requires a One Health approach...

  13. A veterinary perspective on One Health in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Christian; Letcher, Robert James; Jenssen, Bjorn Munro


    Exposure to long-range transported industrial chemicals, climate change and diseases is posing a risk to the overall health and populations of Arctic wildlife. Since local communities are relying on the same marine food web as marine mammals in the Arctic, it requires a One Health approach to und...

  14. Inferred gas hydrate and permafrost stability history models linked to climate change in the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Arctic Canada

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan; Osadetz, K.


    Roč. 8, č. 2 (2012), s. 667-682 ISSN 1814-9324 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : climate change * Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin * permafrost Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 3.556, year: 2012

  15. Arctic cultural heritage and climate change – the preservation of a permafrozen site in a warm future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollesen, Jørgen; Elberling, B.; Matthiesen, Henning


    extremely important. However, future climatic changes are predicted to be most pronounced at Northern latitudes. Increasing temperatures cause longer periods of ground thawing and altered precipitation patterns may result in the drying of near surface layers. Both factors accelerate the deterioration...

  16. Arctic Sea Level Reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde

    Reconstruction of historical Arctic sea level is very difficult due to the limited coverage and quality of tide gauge and altimetry data in the area. This thesis addresses many of these issues, and discusses strategies to help achieve a stable and plausible reconstruction of Arctic sea level from...... 1950 to today.The primary record of historical sea level, on the order of several decades to a few centuries, is tide gauges. Tide gauge records from around the world are collected in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, and includes data along the Arctic coasts. A reasonable...... amount of data is available along the Norwegian and Russian coasts since 1950, and most published research on Arctic sea level extends cautiously from these areas. Very little tide gauge data is available elsewhere in the Arctic, and records of a length of several decades,as generally recommended for sea...

  17. Research with Arctic peoples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, H Sally; Bjerregaard, Peter; Chan, Hing Man


    Arctic peoples are spread over eight countries and comprise 3.74 million residents, of whom 9% are indigenous. The Arctic countries include Canada, Finland, Greenland (Denmark), Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States. Although Arctic peoples are very diverse, there are a variety...... of environmental and health issues that are unique to the Arctic regions, and research exploring these issues offers significant opportunities, as well as challenges. On July 28-29, 2004, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research co-sponsored a working group...... entitled "Research with Arctic Peoples: Unique Research Opportunities in Heart, Lung, Blood and Sleep Disorders". The meeting was international in scope with investigators from Greenland, Iceland and Russia, as well as Canada and the United States. Multiple health agencies from Canada and the United States...

  18. Late Pliocene/Pleistocene changes in Arctic sea-ice cover: Biomarker and dinoflagellate records from Fram Strait/Yermak Plateau (ODP Sites 911 and 912) (United Stat