WorldWideScience

Sample records for contagious disease spread

  1. Discrete dynamics of contagious social diseases: Example of obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demongeot, J; Hansen, O; Taramasco, C

    2016-01-01

    Modeling contagious diseases needs to incorporate information about social networks through which the disease spreads as well as data about demographic and genetic changes in the susceptible population. In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework (conceptualization and formalization) which seeks to model obesity as a process of transformation of one's own body determined by individual (physical and psychological), inter-individual (relational, i.e., relative to the relationship between the individual and others) and socio-cultural (environmental, i.e., relative to the relationship between the individual and his milieu) factors. Individual and inter-individual factors are tied to each other in a socio-cultural context whose impact is notably related to the visibility of anybody being exposed on the public stage in a non-contingent way. The question we are dealing with in this article is whether such kind of social diseases, i.e., depending upon socio-environmental exposure, can be considered as "contagious". In other words, can obesity be propagated from individual to individual or from environmental sources throughout an entire population?

  2. The Contagious Spread of Violence Among US Adolescents Through Social Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, Robert M; Bushman, Brad J

    2017-02-01

    To test the hypothesis that violence among US adolescents spreads like a contagious disease through social networks. Participants were a nationally representative sample of 90 118 US students aged 12 to 18 years who were involved in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Violence was assessed by having participants report the number of times in the preceding 12 months they had been involved in a serious physical fight, had hurt someone badly, and had pulled a weapon on someone. Participants were 48% more likely to have been involved in a serious fight, 183% more likely to have hurt someone badly, and 140% more likely to have pulled a weapon on someone if a friend had engaged in the same behavior. The influence spread up to 4 degrees of separation (i.e., friend of friend of friend of friend) for serious fights, 2 degrees for hurting someone badly, and 3 degrees for pulling a weapon on someone. Adolescents were more likely to engage in violent behavior if their friends did the same, and contagion of violence extended beyond immediate friends to friends of friends.

  3. Risk and economic consequences of contagious animal disease introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horst, H.S.

    1998-01-01

    Introduction

    Within the European Union, epidemics of contagious animal diseases such as Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) are to be eradicated according to strict EU- prescriptions including stamping-out of infected herds,

  4. Impact of degree truncation on the spread of a contagious process on networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harling, Guy; Onnela, Jukka-Pekka

    2018-03-01

    Understanding how person-to-person contagious processes spread through a population requires accurate information on connections between population members. However, such connectivity data, when collected via interview, is often incomplete due to partial recall, respondent fatigue or study design, e.g., fixed choice designs (FCD) truncate out-degree by limiting the number of contacts each respondent can report. Past research has shown how FCD truncation affects network properties, but its implications for predicted speed and size of spreading processes remain largely unexplored. To study the impact of degree truncation on predictions of spreading process outcomes, we generated collections of synthetic networks containing specific properties (degree distribution, degree-assortativity, clustering), and also used empirical social network data from 75 villages in Karnataka, India. We simulated FCD using various truncation thresholds and ran a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) process on each network. We found that spreading processes propagated on truncated networks resulted in slower and smaller epidemics, with a sudden decrease in prediction accuracy at a level of truncation that varied by network type. Our results have implications beyond FCD to truncation due to any limited sampling from a larger network. We conclude that knowledge of network structure is important for understanding the accuracy of predictions of process spread on degree truncated networks.

  5. Visual Darkness Reduces Perceived Risk of Contagious-Disease Transmission From Interpersonal Interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Ping; Zhong, Chen-Bo

    2018-05-01

    We examined the psychological impact of visual darkness on people's perceived risk of contagious-disease transmission. We posited that darkness triggers an abstract construal level and increases perceived social distance from others, rendering threats from others to seem less relevant to the self. We found that participants staying in a dimly lit room (Studies 1 and 3-5) or wearing sunglasses (Study 2) tended to estimate a lower risk of catching contagious diseases from others than did those staying in a brightly lit room or wearing clear glasses. The effect persisted in both laboratory (Studies 1-4) and real-life settings (Study 5). The effect arises because visual darkness elevates perceived social distance from the contagion (Study 3) and is attenuated among abstract (vs. concrete) thinkers (Study 4). These findings delineate a systematic, unconscious influence of visual darkness-a subtle yet pervasive situational factor-on perceived risk of contagion. Theoretical contributions and policy implications are discussed.

  6. The Application of Contagious Disease Epidemiological Models to Known Population Structure and Movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    concept model ( Ebola ) • Time-varying disease transmission rate () Influenza model • Population structure represented via finite scale-free network...I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S The Application of Contagious Disease Epidemiological Models to Known Population Structure ...Known Population Structure and Movement Julia K. Burr Robert L. Cubeta Lucas A. LaViolet Carl A. Curling This page is intentionally blank. iii

  7. Unhealthy behaviour is contagious: an invitation to exploit models for infectious diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blok, D.J.; Empelen, P. van; Lenthe, F.J. van; Richardus, J.H.; Vlas, S.J.

    2013-01-01

    We argue that the spread of unhealthy behaviour shows marked similarities with infectious diseases. It is therefore interesting and challenging to use infectious disease methodologies for studying the spread and control of unhealthy behaviour. This would be a great addition to current methods,

  8. [Individual rights vs public health in the fight against contagious diseases: proposals to improve the current legal framework].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamero Teixidó, Laura

    2016-11-01

    The public health protection constitutional mandate requires public powers to protect the population from contagious diseases. This requires a legal framework that both protects public health effectively and respects individual rights and freedoms that could be undermined by the public administrations. This article analyses, from a legal perspective, the current legal framework regulating the adoption of health measures to protect public health against contagious diseases. It argues that current regulations generate legal uncertainty on the basis of the wide range of discretionary powers they give to the public administration and the lack of provisions for limiting these powers. As a result, the guarantee mechanisms (primarily judicial consent) only weakly protect the rights and freedoms of the citizens affected by health measures. To conclude, the article proposes several amendments to improve public health regulations related to contagious diseases. The purpose is to render a legal framework that offers more legal certainty, in which it is possible to protect individual rights and freedoms when measures are adopted, without sacrificing the effective protection of public health. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. Reversible epigenetic down-regulation of MHC molecules by devil facial tumour disease illustrates immune escape by a contagious cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siddle, Hannah V; Kreiss, Alexandre; Tovar, Cesar

    2013-01-01

    Contagious cancers that pass between individuals as an infectious cell line are highly unusual pathogens. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such contagious cancer that emerged 16 y ago and is driving the Tasmanian devil to extinction. As both a pathogen and an allograft, DFTD cells should...... be rejected by the host-immune response, yet DFTD causes 100% mortality among infected devils with no apparent rejection of tumor cells. Why DFTD cells are not rejected has been a question of considerable confusion. Here, we show that DFTD cells do not express cell surface MHC molecules in vitro or in vivo......, MHC class I molecules can be restored to the surface of DFTD cells in vitro by using recombinant devil IFN-γ, which is associated with up-regulation of the MHC class II transactivator, a key transcription factor with deacetylase activity. Further, expression of MHC class I molecules by DFTD cells can...

  10. Modelling spread of Bluetongue and other vector borne diseases in Denmark and evaluation of intervention strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare

    that describes spread of disease using vectors or hosts as agents of the spread. The model is run with bluetongue as the primary case study, and it is demonstrated how an epidemic outbreak of bluetongue 8 in Denmark is sensitive to the use of pasture, climate, vaccination, vector abundance, and flying parameters......The main outcome of this PhD project is a generic model for non-contagious infectious vector-borne disease spread by one vector species between up to two species of hosts distributed on farms and pasture. The model features a within-herd model of disease, combined with a triple movement kernel....... In constructing a more process oriented agent-based approach to spread modeling new parameters describing vector behavior were introduced. When these vector flying parameters have been quantified by experiments, this model can be implemented on areas naïve to the modeled disease with a high predictive power...

  11. Benefits of lethal pandemics: direct impact of contagious diseases on public administration in Hungary (1867-1914).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palvolgyi, Balazs

    2013-01-01

    The reconciliation of 1867 between Austria and Hungary brought great changes to Hungarian public administration: the way towards the building up of a modern public administration had been opened. Although there was a functioning public health system and a related legislation from the late 18th century, major issues - such as balanced geographical distribution of medical personnel, fair access to medical services even in the poorer regions of the country, and the effective protection against some contagious diseases - were not resolved for decades. During the reform work of public administration since the 1870s, the lawmakers touched repeatedly the framework and functioning of the public health as well. Although the general conditions of the domain depended traditionally on the municipalities and counties due to the national importance of the matter, the government made efforts to make the functioning of the public health more efficient through centralisation. The contagious diseases continuously endangered the population, revealing the weak points in the existing public health system, thereby giving a momentum to the reforms and helping the government in its organization of prevention and clearly contributing to the legislation work.

  12. Alcoholism, a contagious disease. A contribution towards an anthropological definition of contagion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fainzang, S

    1996-12-01

    The goal of this article is to show, from the discourses of drinkers' spouses, members of a "cured-drinkers" movement in France very different from the AA, what the idea of the contagious character of alcoholism means in the subjects' representations and by extension, what the idea of contagion may contain when seen from an anthropological perspective. This work rests on the observation that many people consider that their spouse's alcoholism makes them sick, and tend to identify with the sick person by finding effects of alcoholism on their own bodies. The notion of contagion qualifies here the perception of the impact of the other's sickness on oneself, by physical and social proximity to the drinker, insofar as the conditions for contagion to be possible include not only sharing the same physical (domestic) space, but also the existence of a social bond.

  13. [Disease in the cloisters: requests to leave Convento da Ajuda, Rio de Janeiro, for the treatment of contagious diseases, c.1750-1780].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, William de Souza

    2016-01-01

    This article discusses the requests submitted by nuns from Convento da Ajuda (Ajuda Convent) to leave their life of enclosure to receive treatment for contagious diseases. Disease was one of the few cases in which nuns were granted permission to leave. The female orders were strictly cloistered in order to preserve their purity as virgins consecrated to Christ. Extant documents detail the causes of the diseases, the ways they were transmitted, and the treatments used to fight them. These processes shed light on the procedures adopted outside the cloisters so that the nuns did not jeopardize their reclusion and honor when they went to distant places in search of treatment.

  14. Destructive disinfection of infected brood prevents systemic disease spread in ant colonies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pull, Christopher D; Ugelvig, Line V; Wiesenhofer, Florian; Grasse, Anna V; Tragust, Simon; Schmitt, Thomas; Brown, Mark Jf; Cremer, Sylvia

    2018-01-09

    In social groups, infections have the potential to spread rapidly and cause disease outbreaks. Here, we show that in a social insect, the ant Lasius neglectus , the negative consequences of fungal infections ( Metarhizium brunneum ) can be mitigated by employing an efficient multicomponent behaviour, termed destructive disinfection, which prevents further spread of the disease through the colony. Ants specifically target infected pupae during the pathogen's non-contagious incubation period, utilising chemical 'sickness cues' emitted by pupae. They then remove the pupal cocoon, perforate its cuticle and administer antimicrobial poison, which enters the body and prevents pathogen replication from the inside out. Like the immune system of a metazoan body that specifically targets and eliminates infected cells, ants destroy infected brood to stop the pathogen completing its lifecycle, thus protecting the rest of the colony. Hence, in an analogous fashion, the same principles of disease defence apply at different levels of biological organisation.

  15. Social Distancing Strategies against Disease Spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, L. D.; Buono, C.; Macri, P. A.; Braunstein, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies against epidemic spreading on complex networks. We give a general outlook of the relation between link percolation and the susceptible-infected-recovered model, and introduce the node void percolation process to describe the dilution of the network composed by healthy individual, i.e., the network that sustain the functionality of a society. Then, we survey two strategies: the quenched disorder strategy where an heterogeneous distribution of contact intensities is induced in society, and the intermittent social distancing strategy where health individuals are persuaded to avoid contact with their neighbors for intermittent periods of time. Using percolation tools, we show that both strategies may halt the epidemic spreading. Finally, we discuss the role of the transmissibility, i.e., the effective probability to transmit a disease, on the performance of the strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading.

  16. Get Tested. Make it Contagious.

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-05-13

    This podcast is part of the "Get Tested. Make it Contagious" campaign, which is designed to raise awareness of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and increase testing among college students.  Created: 5/13/2010 by National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).   Date Released: 5/13/2010.

  17. Disease spreading in real-life networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallos, Lazaros; Argyrakis, Panos

    2002-08-01

    In recent years the scientific community has shown a vivid interest in the network structure and dynamics of real-life organized systems. Many such systems, covering an extremely wide range of applications, have been recently shown to exhibit scale-free character in their connectivity distribution, meaning that they obey a power law. Modeling of epidemics on lattices and small-world networks suffers from the presence of a critical infection threshold, above which the entire population is infected. For scale-free networks, the original assumption was that the formation of a giant cluster would lead to an epidemic spreading in the same way as in simpler networks. Here we show that modeling epidemics on a scale-free network can greatly improve the predictions on the rate and efficiency of spreading, as compared to lattice models and small-world networks. We also show that the dynamics of a disease are greatly influenced by the underlying population structure. The exact same model can describe a plethora of networks, such as social networks, virus spreading in the Web, rumor spreading, signal transmission etc.

  18. Empires of Disease : Criminal Encounters, Contagious Nations, and Archives of U.S. Culture and Literature

    OpenAIRE

    Perreira, Christopher Michael

    2015-01-01

    Empires of Disease explores the figure of the "prisoner- patient" in literature, culture, and archives of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, specifically within the contexts of incarceration and medicine in Hawai'i, Louisiana, and California. I focus on representations of prisoner-patients in order to interrogate dominant perceptions of medicine as a humanitarian enterprise, examining the historical convergence of race, colonialism, culture, and medicine in archives and artifacts. When a...

  19. [Relations between official and private veterinary services in epidemiology and the control of contagious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, J A; Bedoya, M; Agudelo, M P

    2004-04-01

    Growing budget restrictions in many countries have meant that official Veterinary Services cannot assume responsibility for any new activities. The natural reaction is to turn to private veterinary services to provide the support needed to strengthen the control and surveillance of priority diseases and thereby support the development of the livestock sector and the establishment of safe international trade. In this context, official Veterinary Services must work together with private veterinarians, delegating various technical animal health activities, so that they may focus their efforts on those tasks that cannot be delegated: standardisation, control, auditing, general system co-ordination, epidemiological surveillance, etc., as well as organising veterinary policy in order to make best use of budget resources. For these relations to be efficient, a dynamic, two-way epidemiological information mechanism must be created, whereby private veterinarians periodically keep governments informed, on the basis of an agreed methodology. Moreover, the official Veterinary Services must systematically transmit information on List A and B diseases of the OIE (World organisation for animal health), and perform detailed analyses of epidemiologically significant events. The article proposes the establishment of relations between public and private veterinary services as a way in which to provide the livestock sector with the health and hygiene conditions that are necessary for effective disease control, which in turn provides greater security for international trade and increased consumer protection.

  20. Seroprevalence of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia in Borana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2Addis Ababa University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Debre Zeit, Ethiopia, PO ... conducted on contagious caprine pleuropneumonia in selected districts of Borana ..... A Text Book of the Disease of Cattle, Sheep, Pigs, Goats and Horses.

  1. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  2. Airborne spread of disease--the implications for dentistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrel, Stephen K

    2004-11-01

    The potential for the airborne spread of disease has been recognized for many years. Recent studies have shown that this mode for disease transmission is capable of spreading a fatal disease such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome over a wide area. Many dental procedures produce extensive aerosols and splatter that are routinely contaminated with bacteria, viruses, and blood. In the past, the potential for these aerosols and splatter to be a vector for disease spread has not been emphasized in dental infection control. Recently published data shows a need to reassess the potential for dental aerosols and splatter to spread disease and the need for their control. Simple and inexpensive methods for the control of dental aerosols and splatter are given. Dental personnel are urged to make the control of aerosols a standard part of their infection control procedures.

  3. Security Investment in Contagious Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasheminasab, Seyed Alireza; Tork Ladani, Behrouz

    2018-01-16

    Security of the systems is normally interdependent in such a way that security risks of one part affect other parts and threats spread through the vulnerable links in the network. So, the risks of the systems can be mitigated through investments in the security of interconnecting links. This article takes an innovative look at the problem of security investment of nodes on their vulnerable links in a given contagious network as a game-theoretic model that can be applied to a variety of applications including information systems. In the proposed game model, each node computes its corresponding risk based on the value of its assets, vulnerabilities, and threats to determine the optimum level of security investments on its external links respecting its limited budget. Furthermore, direct and indirect nonlinear influences of a node's security investment on the risks of other nodes are considered. The existence and uniqueness of the game's Nash equilibrium in the proposed game are also proved. Further analysis of the model in a practical case revealed that taking advantage of the investment effects of other players, perfectly rational players (i.e., those who use the utility function of the proposed game model) make more cost-effective decisions than selfish nonrational or semirational players. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Mathematical analysis of dynamic spread of Pine Wilt disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitrijevic, D D; Bacic, J

    2013-01-01

    Since its detection in Portugal in 1999, the pinewood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner and Buhrer), a causal agent of Pine Wilt Disease, represents a threat to European forestry. Significant amount of money has been spent on its monitoring and eradication. This paper presents mathematical analysis of spread of pine wilt disease using a set of partial differential equations with space (longitude and latitude) and time as parameters of estimated spread of disease. This methodology can be used to evaluate risk of various assumed entry points of disease and make defense plans in advance. In case of an already existing outbreak, it can be used to draw optimal line of defense and plan removal of trees. Optimization constraints are economic loss of removal of susceptible trees as well as budgetary constraints of workforce cost.

  5. Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - Model intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gloster, John; Jones, Andrew; Redington, Alison

    2010-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route, with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics....... Atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to assess airborne spread of FMDV in a number of countries, including the UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, USA and Canada. These models were compared at a Workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office in 2008. Each modeller was provided...... with data relating to the 1967 outbreak of FMD in Hampshire, UK, and asked to predict the spread of FMDV by the airborne route. A number of key issues emerged from the Workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all models predicted similar directions for livestock at risk, with much...

  6. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  7. Spreading of diseases through comorbidity networks across life and gender

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chmiel, Anna; Klimek, Peter; Thurner, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    The state of health of patients is typically not characterized by a single disease alone but by multiple (comorbid) medical conditions. These comorbidities may depend strongly on age and gender. We propose a specific phenomenological comorbidity network of human diseases that is based on medical claims data of the entire population of Austria. The network is constructed from a two-layer multiplex network, where in one layer the links represent the conditional probability for a comorbidity, and in the other the links contain the respective statistical significance. We show that the network undergoes dramatic structural changes across the lifetime of patients. Disease networks for children consist of a single, strongly interconnected cluster. During adolescence and adulthood further disease clusters emerge that are related to specific classes of diseases, such as circulatory, mental, or genitourinary disorders. For people over 65 these clusters start to merge, and highly connected hubs dominate the network. These hubs are related to hypertension, chronic ischemic heart diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. We introduce a simple diffusion model to understand the spreading of diseases on the disease network at the population level. For the first time we are able to show that patients predominantly develop diseases that are in close network proximity to disorders that they already suffer. The model explains more than 85% of the variance of all disease incidents in the population. The presented methodology could be of importance for anticipating age-dependent disease profiles for entire populations, and for design and validation of prevention strategies. (paper)

  8. Conocimientos del personal estomatológico sobre la prevención de enfermedades transmisibles: Pinar del Río, 2007 What the Dentistry personnel knows on prevention of contagious diseases: Pinar del Río, 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Díaz Pacheco

    2008-12-01

    measure for the qualitative data.In order to study the differences between groups the Chi-square test was used.Data were processed using the dynamic table program from the Excel sheet and the satistical package SPSS version 8.0 Windows, it was concluded that dentists and dental techniques need to know about the prevention of the contagious disease at risk of spread to the dental care office.Most dentists and techniques are evaluated as regular according to the use of the protection measures, noting that dentists give a proper answer to the questionnaire applied and a different behaviour in the daily practice.

  9. The landscape genetics of infectious disease emergence and spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biek, Roman; Real, Leslie A

    2010-09-01

    The spread of parasites is inherently a spatial process often embedded in physically complex landscapes. It is therefore not surprising that infectious disease researchers are increasingly taking a landscape genetics perspective to elucidate mechanisms underlying basic ecological processes driving infectious disease dynamics and to understand the linkage between spatially dependent population processes and the geographic distribution of genetic variation within both hosts and parasites. The increasing availability of genetic information on hosts and parasites when coupled to their ecological interactions can lead to insights for predicting patterns of disease emergence, spread and control. Here, we review research progress in this area based on four different motivations for the application of landscape genetics approaches: (i) assessing the spatial organization of genetic variation in parasites as a function of environmental variability, (ii) using host population genetic structure as a means to parameterize ecological dynamics that indirectly influence parasite populations, for example, gene flow and movement pathways across heterogeneous landscapes and the concurrent transport of infectious agents, (iii) elucidating the temporal and spatial scales of disease processes and (iv) reconstructing and understanding infectious disease invasion. Throughout this review, we emphasize that landscape genetic principles are relevant to infection dynamics across a range of scales from within host dynamics to global geographic patterns and that they can also be applied to unconventional 'landscapes' such as heterogeneous contact networks underlying the spread of human and livestock diseases. We conclude by discussing some general considerations and problems for inferring epidemiological processes from genetic data and try to identify possible future directions and applications for this rapidly expanding field.

  10. Orf: contagious pustular dermatitis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Nadeem, M

    2010-05-01

    Orf is a common viral infection in sheep. It spreads to humans by direct contact. It is self-limiting, treatment having no beneficial effect. Misdiagnosis by those unfamiliar with its characteristic features is common, and may result in unnecessary treatment with antibiotics or surgery. We present a series of five cases of Orf in children of farmers in the west of Ireland, seen over a 10 year period.

  11. Investigating Coral Disease Spread Across the Hawaiian Archipelago

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sziklay, Jamie

    Coral diseases negatively impact reef ecosystems and they are increasing worldwide; yet, we have a limited understanding of the factors that influence disease risk and transmission. My dissertation research investigated coral disease spread for several common coral diseases in the Hawaiian archipelago to understand how host-pathogenenvironment interactions vary across different spatial scales and how we can use that information to improve management strategies. At broad spatial scales, I developed forecasting models to predict outbreak risk based on depth, coral density and temperature anomalies from remotely sensed data (chapter 1). In this chapter, I determined that host density, total coral density, depth and winter temperature variation were important predictors of disease prevalence for several coral diseases. Expanding on the predictive models, I also found that colony size, wave energy, water quality, fish abundance and nearby human population size altered disease risk (chapter 2). Most of the model variation occurred at the scale of sites and coastline, indicating that local coral composition and water quality were key determinants of disease risk. At the reef scale, I investigated factors that influence disease transmission among individuals using a tissue loss disease outbreak in Kane'ohe Bay, O'ahu, Hawai'i as a case study (chapter 3). I determined that host size, proximity to infected neighbors and numbers of infected neighbors were associated with disease risk. Disease transmission events were very localized (within 15 m) and rates changed dramatically over the course of the outbreak: the transmission rate initially increased quickly during the outbreak and then decreased steadily until the outbreak ended. At the colony scale, I investigated disease progression between polyps within individual coral colonies using confocal microscopy (chapter 4). Here, I determined that fragmented florescent pigment distributions appeared adjacent to the disease front

  12. Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - model intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gloster, J; Jones, A; Redington, A; Burgin, L; Sorensen, J H; Turner, R; Dillon, M; Hullinger, P; Simpson, M; Astrup, P; Garner, G; Stewart, P; D' Amours, R; Sellers, R; Paton, D

    2008-09-04

    Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly infectious vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed animals caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus. It spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route - with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Over the years a number of workers have developed or adapted atmospheric dispersion models to assess the risk of foot-and-mouth disease virus spread through the air. Six of these models were compared at a workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office during 2008. A number of key issues emerged from the workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all of the models predicted similar directions for 'at risk' livestock with much of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; and (3) differences in assumptions made about virus release, environmental fate, and subsequent infection can substantially modify the size and location of the downwind risk area. Close relationships have now been established between participants, which in the event of an outbreak of disease could be readily activated to supply advice or modelling support.

  13. Spreading disease: a controversy concerning the metaphysics of disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amico, R

    1998-01-01

    This article concerns the metaphysics of disease. Is disease a fixed feature of the world or a social value or preference? I argue that disease is not a value-laden concept and thus debates concerning it differ fundamentally from debates concerning health, harm, or suffering where evaluative judgements are central. I show how the so-called social constructionist view of disease has been motivated both by ethical concerns with medical practices and general theoretical doubts about scientific naturalism. If I can show that ethical concerns about medical treatment can be answered without adopting social constructionism, that leaves only the broader theoretical question of naturalism. I cannot completely answer those theoretical doubts, but I show that the theoretical motivation is less convincing when it is separated from the moral challenge often accompanying it. I conclude that a convincing defense of the non-naturalistic conception of disease is rarely attempted and proves more difficult and counter-intuitive than its proponents assume.

  14. Optimizing surveillance for livestock disease spreading through animal movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajardi, Paolo; Barrat, Alain; Savini, Lara; Colizza, Vittoria

    2012-01-01

    The spatial propagation of many livestock infectious diseases critically depends on the animal movements among premises; so the knowledge of movement data may help us to detect, manage and control an outbreak. The identification of robust spreading features of the system is however hampered by the temporal dimension characterizing population interactions through movements. Traditional centrality measures do not provide relevant information as results strongly fluctuate in time and outbreak properties heavily depend on geotemporal initial conditions. By focusing on the case study of cattle displacements in Italy, we aim at characterizing livestock epidemics in terms of robust features useful for planning and control, to deal with temporal fluctuations, sensitivity to initial conditions and missing information during an outbreak. Through spatial disease simulations, we detect spreading paths that are stable across different initial conditions, allowing the clustering of the seeds and reducing the epidemic variability. Paths also allow us to identify premises, called sentinels, having a large probability of being infected and providing critical information on the outbreak origin, as encoded in the clusters. This novel procedure provides a general framework that can be applied to specific diseases, for aiding risk assessment analysis and informing the design of optimal surveillance systems. PMID:22728387

  15. Overview and epidemiology of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masiga, W N; Domenech, J

    1995-09-01

    Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is widespread in Africa and in other regions of the world. This disease is particularly important in the semi-arid, sub-humid and arid zones of tropical Africa, but CBPP incidence seems to be increasing in some parts of East Africa. The epidemiology of CBPP is characterised by the occurrence of sub-acute and symptomless infections, and the persistence of chronic carriers. Spread of the disease is associated with cattle movement. The major obstacles to eradication of CBPP are the difficulties in controlling cattle movement and applying quarantine and slaughter policies. Other difficulties arise due to the absence of a field test for diagnosis, the relatively short duration of post-vaccinal immunity and the lack of data on the economic impact of the disease. The Pan-African Rinderpest Campaign strategy for CBPP control and eradication conforms with national control programmes, which include cost/benefit analysis. It is planned to perform blanket vaccination against the disease for three to five years, depending on the economic situation of each country. Stringent control of cattle movement will complement vaccination campaigns. The eradication phase, including slaughter measures, will be instituted following reduction of CBPP incidence. Regional and international coordination will be instituted to control international cattle movement and harmonise control strategies.

  16. The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Lessler

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed introductions of disease is small (<1 per day but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.

  17. Cross-Sectional Study on Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Contagious caprine pleuro-pneumonia (CCPP) is an important, devastating disease of goats and sheep, caused by Mycoplasma capricolum subspecies capripneumoniae ( Mccp). In Uganda the disease occurs mainly in the Karamoja region and the surrounding districts. It is a devastating disease of goats, caused by ...

  18. Cape Saint Paul Wilt Disease of coconut in Ghana: surveillance and management of disease spread

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nkansah-Poku Joe

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The Cape Saint Paul Wilt Disease (CSPWD, a lethal-yellowing type disease of coconut has been in Ghana since 1932. Aerial and/or ground surveys were undertaken to assess the current status of the disease spread. The survey showed that the spread of the disease for the past 5 years has mainly been the expansion of existing foci. However, new outbreaks were identified at Glidzi in the Volta, Bawjiase and Efutu Breman in Central regions. After the resurgence in the Volta region in 1995, the Woe-Tegbi-Dzelukope corridor has remained endemic, but less aggressive. Pockets of healthy groves remain along all the coastline and inland of known disease zones. Eradication of diseased palms at Ampain focus lying just about 60 km to the Ivorian border, and disease situations on new replanting with MYD × VTT hybrid are discussed.

  19. Fractal scale-free networks resistant to disease spread

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng; Zou, Tao; Chen, Guisheng

    2008-01-01

    The conventional wisdom is that scale-free networks are prone to epidemic propagation; in the paper we demonstrate that, on the contrary, disease spreading is inhibited in fractal scale-free networks. We first propose a novel network model and show that it simultaneously has the following rich topological properties: scale-free degree distribution, tunable clustering coefficient, 'large-world' behavior, and fractal scaling. Existing network models do not display these characteristics. Then, we investigate the susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model of the propagation of diseases in our fractal scale-free networks by mapping it to the bond percolation process. We establish the existence of non-zero tunable epidemic thresholds by making use of the renormalization group technique, which implies that power law degree distribution does not suffice to characterize the epidemic dynamics on top of scale-free networks. We argue that the epidemic dynamics are determined by the topological properties, especially the fractality and its accompanying 'large-world' behavior

  20. Sero-prevalence of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia and its ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a disease of cattle caused by ... of veterinary departments have resulted in CBPP running riot in east and ... 5 334 of Sheep, 9 253 of Goat, 72 of Horses, 601 of Mules, 3 300 of Donkeys.

  1. Clustering of contacts relevant to the spread of infectious disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Xiong; van Hoek, Albert Jan; Kenward, Michael G; Melegaro, Alessia; Jit, Mark

    2016-12-01

    Infectious disease spread depends on contact rates between infectious and susceptible individuals. Transmission models are commonly informed using empirically collected contact data, but the relevance of different contact types to transmission is still not well understood. Some studies select contacts based on a single characteristic such as proximity (physical/non-physical), location, duration or frequency. This study aimed to explore whether clusters of contacts similar to each other across multiple characteristics could better explain disease transmission. Individual contact data from the POLYMOD survey in Poland, Great Britain, Belgium, Finland and Italy were grouped into clusters by the k medoids clustering algorithm with a Manhattan distance metric to stratify contacts using all four characteristics. Contact clusters were then used to fit a transmission model to sero-epidemiological data for varicella-zoster virus (VZV) in each country. Across the five countries, 9-15 clusters were found to optimise both quality of clustering (measured using average silhouette width) and quality of fit (measured using several information criteria). Of these, 2-3 clusters were most relevant to VZV transmission, characterised by (i) 1-2 clusters of age-assortative contacts in schools, (ii) a cluster of less age-assortative contacts in non-school settings. Quality of fit was similar to using contacts stratified by a single characteristic, providing validation that single stratifications are appropriate. However, using clustering to stratify contacts using multiple characteristics provided insight into the structures underlying infection transmission, particularly the role of age-assortative contacts, involving school age children, for VZV transmission between households. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. The costs of preventive activities for exotic contagious diseases - A Danish case study of foot and mouth disease and swine fever

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Denver, Sigrid; Alban, Lis; Boklund, Anette

    2016-01-01

    The present paper provides an overview of the costs of preventive activities, currently undertaken in Denmark, related to foot and mouth disease (FMD) and classical and African swine fever (SF). Only costs held between outbreaks were included. Costs were divided into public costs and costs paid...... in a group of experts from universities, industry, and public authorities. The costs of each preventive activity were related to the type of activity, the number of times the activity was carried out and the share of costs that could be associated with FMD or SF. Uncertainty about parameters was incorporated...... by the pig and cattle industries, respectively. Data were retrieved from multiple sources such as databases, legal documents, official statistics, yearly reports and expert opinions. As no previous studies have assessed such costs, data collection and estimation procedures were discussed and decided upon...

  3. Global warming and spread of infectious diseases; Globale Erwaermung und Ausbreitung von Infektionskrankheiten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebert, B.; Fleischer, B. [Bernhard-Nocht-Institut fuer Tropenmedizin (BNI), Hamburg (Germany)

    2005-01-15

    At the end of the twentieth century, tropical infectious diseases increased despite earlier successes of eradication campaigns. As a global warming of 1.4-5.8 C is anticipated to occur by 2100, mainly the vector-borne tropical diseases that are particularly sensitive to climate are expected to spread. Although biological reasons seemingly support this hypothesis, ecological and socio-economic factors have in the past proven to be stronger driving forces for the spread of infectious diseases than climate. (orig.)

  4. Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease is a contagious illness that mainly affects children under five. In this podcast, Dr. Eileen Schneider talks about the symptoms of hand, foot, and mouth disease, how it spreads, and ways to help protect yourself and your children from getting infected with the virus.

  5. Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J

    2008-11-11

    Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines

  6. Lifting the veil of ignorance : An experiment on the contagiousness of norm violations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diekmann, Andreas; Przepiorka, Wojtek; Rauhut, Heiko

    2015-01-01

    Norm violations can be contagious. Previous research analyzed two mechanisms of why knowledge about others’ norm violations triggers its spread: (1) actors lower their subjective beliefs about the probability or severity of punishment or (2) they condition their compliance on others’ compliance.

  7. Modelling the influence of human behaviour on the spread of infectious diseases: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Sebastian; Salathé, Marcel; Jansen, Vincent A A

    2010-09-06

    Human behaviour plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases, and understanding the influence of behaviour on the spread of diseases can be key to improving control efforts. While behavioural responses to the spread of a disease have often been reported anecdotally, there has been relatively little systematic investigation into how behavioural changes can affect disease dynamics. Mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases are an important tool for investigating and quantifying such effects, not least because the spread of a disease among humans is not amenable to direct experimental study. Here, we review recent efforts to incorporate human behaviour into disease models, and propose that such models can be broadly classified according to the type and source of information which individuals are assumed to base their behaviour on, and according to the assumed effects of such behaviour. We highlight recent advances as well as gaps in our understanding of the interplay between infectious disease dynamics and human behaviour, and suggest what kind of data taking efforts would be helpful in filling these gaps.

  8. Spatial spreading of infectious disease via local and national mobility networks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Okyu; Son, Woo-Sik

    2017-12-01

    We study the spread of infectious disease based on local- and national-scale mobility networks. We construct a local mobility network using data on urban bus services to estimate local-scale movement of people. We also construct a national mobility network from orientation-destination data of vehicular traffic between highway tollgates to evaluate national-scale movement of people. A metapopulation model is used to simulate the spread of epidemics. Thus, the number of infected people is simulated using a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model within the administrative division, and inter-division spread of infected people is determined through local and national mobility networks. In this paper, we consider two scenarios for epidemic spread. In the first, the infectious disease only spreads through local-scale movement of people, that is, the local mobility network. In the second, it spreads via both local and national mobility networks. For the former, the simulation results show infected people sequentially spread to neighboring divisions. Yet for the latter, we observe a faster spreading pattern to distant divisions. Thus, we confirm the national mobility network enhances synchronization among the incidence profiles of all administrative divisions.

  9. A Comparison between Two Simulation Models for Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette; Stockmarr, Anders

    2014-01-01

    Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were used in order to compare the models' predictions in term of disease spread, consequence, and the ranking of the applied control strategies, and to discuss the effect of the way disease spread is modeled on the predicted outcomes...... of each model. The DTU-DADS (version 0.100), and ISP (version 2.001.11) were used to simulate a hypothetical spread of FMD in Denmark. Actual herd type, movements, and location data in the period 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007 was used. The models simulated the spread of FMD using 3 different...... areas and 1,000 in low density swine areas, and 1,000 sheep herds. Generally, DTU-DADS predicted larger, longer duration and costlier epidemics than ISP, except when epidemics started in cattle herds located in high density cattle areas. ISP supported suppressive vaccination rather than pre...

  10. Simulation of between-farm transmission of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in Ontario, Canada using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Krishna K; Revie, Crawford W; Hurnik, Daniel; Poljak, Zvonimir; Sanchez, Javier

    2015-03-01

    Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), a viral disease of swine, has major economic impacts on the swine industry. The North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) is a spatial, stochastic, farm level state-transition modeling framework originally developed to simulate highly contagious and foreign livestock diseases. The objectives of this study were to develop a model to simulate between-farm spread of a homologous strain of PRRS virus in Ontario swine farms via direct (animal movement) and indirect (sharing of trucks between farms) contacts using the NAADSM and to compare the patterns and extent of outbreak under different simulated conditions. A total of 2552 swine farms in Ontario province were allocated to each census division of Ontario and geo-locations of the farms were randomly generated within the agriculture land of each Census Division. Contact rates among different production types were obtained using pig movement information from four regions in Canada. A total of 24 scenarios were developed involving various direct (movement of infected animals) and indirect (pig transportation trucks) contact parameters in combination with alternating the production type of the farm in which the infection was seeded. Outbreaks were simulated for one year with 1000 replications. The median number of farms infected, proportion of farms with multiple outbreaks and time to reach the peak epidemic were used to compare the size, progression and extent of outbreaks. Scenarios involving spread only by direct contact between farms resulted in outbreaks where the median percentage of infected farms ranged from 31.5 to 37% of all farms. In scenarios with both direct and indirect contact, the median percentage of infected farms increased to a range from 41.6 to 48.6%. Furthermore, scenarios with both direct and indirect contact resulted in a 44% increase in median epidemic size when compared to the direct contact scenarios. Incorporation of both animal

  11. Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population

  12. Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

    2009-03-01

    We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

  13. The spread of prion-like proteins by lysosomes and tunneling nanotubes: Implications for neurodegenerative diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Victoria, Guiliana Soraya; Zurzolo, Chiara

    2017-09-04

    Progression of pathology in neurodegenerative diseases is hypothesized to be a non-cell-autonomous process that may be mediated by the productive spreading of prion-like protein aggregates from a "donor cell" that is the source of misfolded aggregates to an "acceptor cell" in which misfolding is propagated by conversion of the normal protein. Although the proteins involved in the various diseases are unrelated, common pathways appear to be used for their intercellular propagation and spreading. Here, we summarize recent evidence of the molecular mechanisms relevant for the intercellular trafficking of protein aggregates involved in prion, Alzheimer's, Huntington's, and Parkinson's diseases. We focus in particular on the common roles that lysosomes and tunneling nanotubes play in the formation and spreading of prion-like assemblies. © 2017 Victoria and Zurzolo.

  14. Using the Gravity Model to Estimate the Spatial Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Marie Aerts

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

  15. Social modulation of contagious yawning in wolves.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Romero

    Full Text Available On the basis of observational and experimental evidence, several authors have proposed that contagious yawn is linked to our capacity for empathy, thus presenting a powerful tool to explore the root of empathy in animal evolution. The evidence for the occurrence of contagious yawning and its link to empathy, however, is meagre outside primates and only recently domestic dogs have demonstrated this ability when exposed to human yawns. Since dogs are unusually skillful at reading human communicative behaviors, it is unclear whether this phenomenon is deeply rooted in the evolutionary history of mammals or evolved de novo in dogs as a result of domestication. Here we show that wolves are capable of yawn contagion, suggesting that such ability is a common ancestral trait shared by other mammalian taxa. Furthermore, the strength of the social bond between the model and the subject positively affected the frequency of contagious yawning, suggesting that in wolves the susceptibility of yawn contagion correlates with the level of emotional proximity. Moreover, female wolves showed a shorter reaction time than males when observing yawns of close associates, suggesting that females are more responsive to their social stimuli. These results are consistent with the claim that the mechanism underlying contagious yawning relates to the capacity for empathy and suggests that basic building blocks of empathy might be present in a wide range of species.

  16. Dental caries in children: a contagious disease

    OpenAIRE

    Palomer R, Leonor

    2006-01-01

    Introducción: La carie dental es una enfermedad de alta prevalencia en todo el mundo y actualmente se define como una patología transmisible, en cuyo contagio juega un rol fundamental el Streptococcus Mutans (SM). Muchos estudios indican que la colonización temprana de la boca del niño por dicha bacteria es a través de la saliva de los adultos, especialmente de las madres. Objetivos: Familiarizar al médico pediatra, quien tiene la posibilidad de revisar a los niños desde su nacimiento, en los...

  17. Potential risk of regional disease spread in West Africa through cross-border cattle trade.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna S Dean

    Full Text Available Transboundary animal movements facilitate the spread of pathogens across large distances. Cross-border cattle trade is of economic and cultural importance in West Africa. This study explores the potential disease risk resulting from large-scale, cross-border cattle trade between Togo, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin, and Nigeria for the first time.A questionnaire-based survey of livestock movements of 226 cattle traders was conducted in the 9 biggest cattle markets of northern Togo in February-March 2012. More than half of the traders (53.5% operated in at least one other country. Animal flows were stochastically simulated based on reported movements and the risk of regional disease spread assessed. More than three quarters (79.2%, range: 78.1-80.0% of cattle flowing into the market system originated from other countries. Through the cattle market system of northern Togo, non-neighbouring countries were connected via potential routes for disease spread. Even for diseases with low transmissibility and low prevalence in a given country, there was a high risk of disease introduction into other countries.By stochastically simulating data collected by interviewing cattle traders in northern Togo, this study identifies potential risks for regional disease spread in West Africa through cross-border cattle trade. The findings highlight that surveillance for emerging infectious diseases as well as control activities targeting endemic diseases in West Africa are likely to be ineffective if only conducted at a national level. A regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control is essential.

  18. Potential Risk of Regional Disease Spread in West Africa through Cross-Border Cattle Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Anna S.; Fournié, Guillaume; Kulo, Abalo E.; Boukaya, G. Aboudou; Schelling, Esther; Bonfoh, Bassirou

    2013-01-01

    Background Transboundary animal movements facilitate the spread of pathogens across large distances. Cross-border cattle trade is of economic and cultural importance in West Africa. This study explores the potential disease risk resulting from large-scale, cross-border cattle trade between Togo, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Benin, and Nigeria for the first time. Methods and Principal Findings A questionnaire-based survey of livestock movements of 226 cattle traders was conducted in the 9 biggest cattle markets of northern Togo in February-March 2012. More than half of the traders (53.5%) operated in at least one other country. Animal flows were stochastically simulated based on reported movements and the risk of regional disease spread assessed. More than three quarters (79.2%, range: 78.1–80.0%) of cattle flowing into the market system originated from other countries. Through the cattle market system of northern Togo, non-neighbouring countries were connected via potential routes for disease spread. Even for diseases with low transmissibility and low prevalence in a given country, there was a high risk of disease introduction into other countries. Conclusions By stochastically simulating data collected by interviewing cattle traders in northern Togo, this study identifies potential risks for regional disease spread in West Africa through cross-border cattle trade. The findings highlight that surveillance for emerging infectious diseases as well as control activities targeting endemic diseases in West Africa are likely to be ineffective if only conducted at a national level. A regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control is essential. PMID:24130721

  19. Using the gravity model to estimate the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barrios, J.M.; Verstraeten, W.W.; Maes, P.; Aerts, J.; Farifteh, J.; Coppin, P.

    2012-01-01

    The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the

  20. Don't Let the Bugs Bite: Preventing Dengue and Other Diseases Spread by Mosquitoes

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2007-12-10

    This year (2007) CDC is receiving a great many reports of cases of Dengue fever, which is spread by mosquitoes. This podcast discusses ways travelers to the tropics can protect themselves from mosquito bites.  Created: 12/10/2007 by National Center for the Prevention, Detection and Control of Infectious Diseases (NCPDCID).   Date Released: 12/10/2007.

  1. Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi

    2017-06-01

    Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEIIhR model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEIIhR model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEIIhR model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEIIhR model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEIIhR model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point (Se; Ee; Ie; Ihe; Re )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable.

  2. Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari

    2017-01-01

    Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEII h R) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEII h R model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEII h R model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEII h R model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEII h R model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEII h R model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point ( S e ; E e ; I e ; I he ; R e )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable. (paper)

  3. High Court Rules that Law Bars Bias against Persons with Contagious Ills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, Cheryl M.

    1987-01-01

    The Supreme Court has ruled that Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, which protects disabled people from discrimination, covers persons with contagious diseases. This decision is seen as strengthening the rights of people suffering from AIDS as well as other diseases. (MSE)

  4. Evaluation of spatio-temporal Bayesian models for the spread of infectious diseases in oil palm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denis, Marie; Cochard, Benoît; Syahputra, Indra; de Franqueville, Hubert; Tisné, Sébastien

    2018-02-01

    In the field of epidemiology, studies are often focused on mapping diseases in relation to time and space. Hierarchical modeling is a common flexible and effective tool for modeling problems related to disease spread. In the context of oil palm plantations infected by the fungal pathogen Ganoderma boninense, we propose and compare two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models addressing the lack of information on propagation modes and transmission vectors. We investigate two alternative process models to study the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process. The models help gain insight into the spatio-temporal dynamic of the infection by identifying a genetic component in the disease spread and by highlighting a spatial component acting at the end of the experiment. In this challenging context, we propose models that provide assumptions on the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process while making short-term predictions using ready-to-use software. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Disease properties, geography, and mitigation strategies in a simulation spread of rinderpest across the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manore Carrie

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract For the past decade, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has been working toward eradicating rinderpest through vaccination and intense surveillance by 2012. Because of the potential severity of a rinderpest epidemic, it is prudent to prepare for an unexpected outbreak in animal populations. There is no immunity to the disease among the livestock or wildlife in the United States (US. If rinderpest were to emerge in the US, the loss in livestock could be devastating. We predict the potential spread of rinderpest using a two-stage model for the spread of a multi-host infectious disease among agricultural animals in the US. The model incorporates large-scale interactions among US counties and the small-scale dynamics of disease spread within a county. The model epidemic was seeded in 16 locations and there was a strong dependence of the overall epidemic size on the starting location. The epidemics were classified according to overall size into small epidemics of 100 to 300 animals (failed epidemics, epidemics infecting 3 000 to 30 000 animals (medium epidemics, and the large epidemics infecting around one million beef cattle. The size of the rinderpest epidemics were directly related to the origin of the disease and whether or not the disease moved into certain key counties in high-livestock-density areas of the US. The epidemic size also depended upon response time and effectiveness of movement controls.

  6. Bioeconomic modeling of intervention against clinical mastitis caused by contagious pathogens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the epidemiologic and economic consequences of intervention against contagious clinical mastitis during lactation. A bioeconomic model of intramammary infections (IMI) was used to simulate contagious spread of Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus uberis......, and Streptococcus dysgalactiae, and an environmental spread of Escherichia coli IMI in a 100-cow dairy herd during 1 quota year. The costs of clinical IMI, subclinical IMI, and intervention were calculated into the total annual net costs of IMI during lactation per scenario and compared with a default scenario....... Input parameter values were based on the scientific literature. The scenarios were 3-d intramammary lactational treatment (default), 5-d intramammary treatment, 5-d intramammary treatment and 3-d systemic treatment, 3-d intramammary treatment and culling bacteriologically unrecovered clinical IMI cows...

  7. Social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Kathy; Jit, Mark; Lau, Eric H Y; Wu, Joseph T

    2017-08-11

    The spread of many respiratory infections is determined by contact patterns between infectious and susceptible individuals in the population. There are no published data for quantifying social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong which is a hotspot for emerging infectious diseases due to its high population density and connectivity in the air transportation network. We adopted a commonly used diary-based design to conduct a social contact survey in Hong Kong in 2015/16 using both paper and online questionnaires. Participants using paper questionnaires reported more contacts and longer contact duration than those using online questionnaires. Participants reported 13 person-hours of contact and 8 contacts per day on average, which decreased over age but increased with household size, years of education and income level. Prolonged and frequent contacts, and contacts at home, school and work were more likely to involve physical contacts. Strong age-assortativity was observed in all age groups. We evaluated the characteristics of social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong. Our findings could help to improve the design of future social contact surveys, parameterize transmission models of respiratory infectious diseases, and inform intervention strategies based on model outputs.

  8. Modeling the spread of vector-borne diseases on bipartite networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donal Bisanzio

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Vector-borne diseases for which transmission occurs exclusively between vectors and hosts can be modeled as spreading on a bipartite network. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In such models the spreading of the disease strongly depends on the degree distribution of the two classes of nodes. It is sufficient for one of the classes to have a scale-free degree distribution with a slow enough decay for the network to have asymptotically vanishing epidemic threshold. Data on the distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks on mice and lizards from two independent studies are well described by a scale-free distribution compatible with an asymptotically vanishing epidemic threshold. The commonly used negative binomial, instead, cannot describe the right tail of the empirical distribution. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The extreme aggregation of vectors on hosts, described by the power-law decay of the degree distribution, makes the epidemic threshold decrease with the size of the network and vanish asymptotically.

  9. Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2013-08-08

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease is a contagious illness that mainly affects children under five. In this podcast, Dr. Eileen Schneider talks about the symptoms of hand, foot, and mouth disease, how it spreads, and ways to help protect yourself and your children from getting infected with the virus.  Created: 8/8/2013 by National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 8/8/2013.

  10. A Rational Approach to Estimating the Surgical Demand Elasticity Needed to Guide Manpower Reallocation during Contagious Outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsao, Hsiao-Mei; Sun, Ying-Chou; Liou, Der-Ming

    2015-01-01

    Background Emerging infectious diseases continue to pose serious threats to global public health. So far, however, few published study has addressed the need for manpower reallocation needed in hospitals when such a serious contagious outbreak occurs. Aim To quantify the demand elasticity of the major surgery types in order to guide future manpower reallocation during contagious outbreaks. Materials and Methods Based on a nationwide research database in Taiwan, we extracted the monthly volume...

  11. Predictive modelling of contagious deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Purves, Drew; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M

    2013-01-01

    Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges "bottom up", as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated-pre- and post-PPCDAM ("Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia")-the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently

  12. The determinants of spread of Ebola virus disease - an evidence from the past outbreak experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gałas, Aleksander

    2014-01-01

    The paper summarizes available evidence regarding the determinants of spread of Ebola virus disease, including health care and community related risk factors. It was observed that the level of uncertainty for the estimations is relatively high which may hinder to make some predictions for the future evolution of EVD outbreak. The natural history of EVD has shown that the disease may pose a problem to developed countries and may present a thread to individuals. Although observed modes of transmission mainly include direct contact and contaminated staff, high case fatality ratio and frequent contacts among individuals in developed countries are among determinants which may lead to the development of the EVD outbreak.

  13. Modelling fast spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases using complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The pandemics of SARS (2002/2003) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the potential of epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases in a world that is strongly connected. Global air travelling established an easy and fast opportunity for pathogens to migrate globally in only a few days. This made epidemiological prediction harder. By understanding this complex development and its link to climate change we can suggest actions to control a part of global human health affairs. In this study we combine the following data components to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human: em{Global Air Traffic Network (from openflights.org) with information on airports, airport location, direct flight connection, airplane type} em{Global population dataset (from SEDAC, NASA)} em{Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate disease spreading in the vicinity of airports. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to analyze the impact of the incubation period.} em{WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate data: temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and water vapor pressure} These elements are implemented into a complex network. Nodes inside the network represent airports. Each single node is equipped with its own SIR/SEIR compartmental model with node specific attributes. Edges between those nodes represent direct flight connections that allow infected individuals to move between linked nodes. Therefore the interaction of the set of unique SIR models creates the model dynamics we will analyze. To better figure out the influence on climate change on disease spreading patterns, we focus on Influenza-like-Illnesses (ILI). The transmission rate of ILI has a dependency on climate parameters like humidity and temperature. Even small changes of environmental variables can trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct

  14. Phlebotomine sandflies and the spreading of leishmaniases and other diseases of public health concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroli, M; Feliciangeli, M D; Bichaud, L; Charrel, R N; Gradoni, L

    2013-06-01

    Phlebotomine sandflies transmit pathogens that affect humans and animals worldwide. We review the roles of phlebotomines in the spreading of leishmaniases, sandfly fever, summer meningitis, vesicular stomatitis, Chandipura virus encephalitis and Carrión's disease. Among over 800 species of sandfly recorded, 98 are proven or suspected vectors of human leishmaniases; these include 42 Phlebotomus species in the Old World and 56 Lutzomyia species in the New World (all: Diptera: Psychodidae). Based on incrimination criteria, we provide an updated list of proven or suspected vector species by endemic country where data are available. Increases in sandfly diffusion and density resulting from increases in breeding sites and blood sources, and the interruption of vector control activities contribute to the spreading of leishmaniasis in the settings of human migration, deforestation, urbanization and conflict. In addition, climatic changes can be expected to affect the density and dispersion of sandflies. Phlebovirus infections and diseases are present in large areas of the Old World, especially in the Mediterranean subregion, in which virus diversity has proven to be higher than initially suspected. Vesiculovirus diseases are important to livestock and humans in the southeastern U.S.A. and Latin America, and represent emerging human threats in parts of India. Carrión's disease, formerly restricted to regions of elevated altitude in Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, has shown recent expansion to non-endemic areas of the Amazon basin. © 2012 The Authors. Medical and Veterinary Entomology © 2012 The Royal Entomological Society.

  15. MANAGING NEWLY ESTABLISHED PESTS: Cooperative efforts contained spread of Pierce's disease and found genetic resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Bruening

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available An outbreak of Pierce's disease of grapevine in the Temecula Valley in the late 1990s was one in a decades-long series of sporadic appearances of this infection in California. However, the new outbreak was qualitatively different because of the rapidity with which it spread in the vineyard and its appearance almost simultaneously at distant locations. The causative agent of Pierce's disease is the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, and the distinct characteristics of the Temecula Valley outbreak were traced to the establishment of a new insect vector in California, the glassy-winged sharpshooter. Intensive and collaborative efforts among government agencies, industry and research institutions over 15 years have successfully contained the disease, and given scientists time to discover promising long-term potential solutions through genetic resistance.

  16. A Lagrangian particle model to predict the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, D.; Reiczigel, J.; Rubel, F.

    Airborne spread of bioaerosols in the boundary layer over a complex terrain is simulated using a Lagrangian particle model, and applied to modelling the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. Two case studies are made with study domains located in a hilly region in the northwest of the Styrian capital Graz, the second largest town in Austria. Mountainous terrain as well as inhomogeneous and time varying meteorological conditions prevent from application of so far used Gaussian dispersion models, while the proposed model can handle these realistically. In the model, trajectories of several thousands of particles are computed and the distribution of virus concentration near the ground is calculated. This allows to assess risk of infection areas with respect to animal species of interest, such as cattle, swine or sheep. Meteorological input data like wind field and other variables necessary to compute turbulence were taken from the new pre-operational version of the non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model LMK ( Lokal-Modell-Kürzestfrist) running at the German weather service DWD ( Deutscher Wetterdienst). The LMK model provides meteorological parameters with a spatial resolution of about 2.8 km. To account for the spatial resolution of 400 m used by the Lagrangian particle model, the initial wind field is interpolated upon the finer grid by a mass consistent interpolation method. Case studies depict a significant influence of local wind systems on the spread of virus. Higher virus concentrations at the upwind side of the hills and marginal concentrations in the lee are well observable, as well as canalization effects by valleys. The study demonstrates that the Lagrangian particle model is an appropriate tool for risk assessment of airborne spread of virus by taking into account the realistic orographic and meteorological conditions.

  17. Disinfection of foot-and-mouth disease and African swine fever viruses with citric acid and sodium hypochlorite on birch wood carriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Transboundary animal disease viruses such as foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and African swine fever virus (ASFV) are highly contagious and cause severe morbidity and mortality in livestock. Proper disinfection during an outbreak can help prevent virus spread and will shorten the time for contam...

  18. Influence of network dynamics on the spread of sexually transmitted diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risau-Gusman, Sebastián

    2012-06-07

    Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account by assuming that the relevant information to study epidemic spread is encoded in the network obtained, by considering numbers of partners accumulated over periods of time roughly proportional to the infectious period of the disease. On the other hand, models explicitly including social dynamics are often too schematic to provide a reasonable representation of a real population, or so detailed that no general conclusions can be drawn from them. Here, we present a model of social dynamics that is general enough so its parameters can be obtained by fitting data from surveys about sexual behaviour, but that can still be studied analytically, using mean-field techniques. This allows us to obtain some general results about epidemic spreading. We show that using accumulated network data to estimate the static epidemic threshold lead to a significant underestimation of that threshold. We also show that, for a dynamic network, the relative epidemic threshold is an increasing function of the infectious period of the disease, implying that the static value is a lower bound to the real threshold. A practical example is given of how to apply the model to the study of a real population.

  19. Medical problems of survivors of nuclear war: Infection and the spread of communicable disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrams, H.L.; VonKaenel, W.E.

    1984-01-01

    The nature of the medical problems produced by the aftermath of nuclear war is discussed. The survivors of nuclear war will live without the social structure needed to assure food, water, and shelter. They will experience malnutrition, exposure, and fatigue, which are all favorable to infection and the epidemic spread of communicable disease. The authors analyze the problem of infectious illness in the postattack period, assuming the 6,559 megaton attack scenario used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. A particular contribution of this analysis is that it is based on government technical reports that describe the available computer modeling of postattack conditions. Such simulations allow a semiquantitative estimate of deaths due to infection. They estimate that postattack infectious disease mortality will be 25%. These studies are not accessible to the general reader and are difficult for health professionals to interpret

  20. A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

    2017-08-01

    The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

  1. Pathways of Prion Spread during Early Chronic Wasting Disease in Deer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoover, Clare E; Davenport, Kristen A; Henderson, Davin M; Denkers, Nathaniel D; Mathiason, Candace K; Soto, Claudio; Zabel, Mark D; Hoover, Edward A

    2017-05-15

    Among prion infections, two scenarios of prion spread are generally observed: (i) early lymphoid tissue replication or (ii) direct neuroinvasion without substantial antecedent lymphoid amplification. In nature, cervids are infected with chronic wasting disease (CWD) prions by oral and nasal mucosal exposure, and studies of early CWD pathogenesis have implicated pharyngeal lymphoid tissue as the earliest sites of prion accumulation. However, knowledge of chronological events in prion spread during early infection remains incomplete. To investigate this knowledge gap in early CWD pathogenesis, we exposed white-tailed deer to CWD prions by mucosal routes and performed serial necropsies to assess PrP CWD tissue distribution by real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) and tyramide signal amplification immunohistochemistry (TSA-IHC). Although PrP CWD was not detected by either method in the initial days (1 and 3) postexposure, we observed PrP CWD seeding activity and follicular immunoreactivity in oropharyngeal lymphoid tissues at 1 and 2 months postexposure (MPE). At 3 MPE, PrP CWD replication had expanded to all systemic lymphoid tissues. By 4 MPE, the PrP CWD burden in all lymphoid tissues had increased and approached levels observed in terminal disease, yet there was no evidence of nervous system invasion. These results indicate the first site of CWD prion entry is in the oropharynx, and the initial phase of prion amplification occurs in the oropharyngeal lymphoid tissues followed by rapid dissemination to systemic lymphoid tissues. This lymphoid replication phase appears to precede neuroinvasion. IMPORTANCE Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a universally fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting cervids, and natural infection occurs through oral and nasal mucosal exposure to infectious prions. Terminal disease is characterized by PrP CWD accumulation in the brain and lymphoid tissues of affected animals. However, the initial sites of prion

  2. Impact of individual behaviour change on the spread of emerging infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Q L; Tang, S Y; Xiao, Y N

    2018-03-15

    Human behaviour plays an important role in the spread of emerging infectious diseases, and understanding the influence of behaviour changes on epidemics can be key to improving control efforts. However, how the dynamics of individual behaviour changes affects the development of emerging infectious disease is a key public health issue. To develop different formula for individual behaviour change and introduce how to embed it into a dynamic model of infectious diseases, we choose A/H1N1 and Ebola as typical examples, combined with the epidemic reported cases and media related news reports. Thus, the logistic model with the health belief model is used to determine behaviour decisions through the health belief model constructs. Furthermore, we propose 4 candidate infectious disease models without and with individual behaviour change and use approximate Bayesian computation based on sequential Monte Carlo method for model selection. The main results indicate that the classical compartment model without behaviour change and the model with average rate of behaviour change depicted by an exponential function could fit the observed data best. The results provide a new way on how to choose an infectious disease model to predict the disease prevalence trend or to evaluate the influence of intervention measures on disease control. However, sensitivity analyses indicate that the accumulated number of hospital notifications and deaths could be largely reduced as the rate of behaviour change increases. Therefore, in terms of mitigating emerging infectious diseases, both media publicity focused on how to guide people's behaviour change and positive responses of individuals are critical. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Simulating the spread of malaria using a generic transmission model for mosquito-borne infectious diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kon, Cynthia Mui Lian; Labadin, Jane

    2016-06-01

    Malaria is a critical infection caused by parasites which are spread to humans through mosquito bites. Approximately half of the world's population is in peril of getting infected by malaria. Mosquito-borne diseases have a standard behavior where they are transmitted in the same manner, only through vector mosquito. Taking this into account, a generic spatial-temporal model for transmission of multiple mosquito-borne diseases had been formulated. Our interest is to reproduce the actual cases of different mosquito-borne diseases using the generic model and then predict future cases so as to improve control and target measures competently. In this paper, we utilize notified weekly malaria cases in four districts in Sarawak, Malaysia, namely Kapit, Song, Belaga and Marudi. The actual cases for 36 weeks, which is from week 39 in 2012 to week 22 in 2013, are compared with simulations of the generic spatial-temporal transmission mosquito-borne diseases model. We observe that the simulation results display corresponding result to the actual malaria cases in the four districts.

  4. Transmission of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer: Implications for disease spread and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennelle, Christopher S.; Henaux, Viviane; Wasserberg, Gideon; Thiagarajan, Bala; Rolley, Robert E.; Samuel, Michael D.

    2014-01-01

    Few studies have evaluated the rate of infection or mode of transmission for wildlife diseases, and the implications of alternative management strategies. We used hunter harvest data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection rate and transmission modes, and address how alternative management approaches affect disease dynamics in a Wisconsin white-tailed deer population. Uncertainty regarding demographic impacts of CWD on cervid populations, human and domestic animal health concerns, and potential economic consequences underscore the need for strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Using maximum-likelihood methods to evaluate alternative multi-state deterministic models of CWD transmission, harvest data strongly supports a frequency-dependent transmission structure with sex-specific infection rates that are two times higher in males than females. As transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are an important and difficult-to-study class of diseases with major economic and ecological implications, our work supports the hypothesis of frequency-dependent transmission in wild deer at a broad spatial scale and indicates that effective harvest management can be implemented to control CWD prevalence. Specifically, we show that harvest focused on the greater-affected sex (males) can result in stable population dynamics and control of CWD within the next 50 years, given the constraints of the model. We also provide a quantitative estimate of geographic disease spread in southern Wisconsin, validating qualitative assessments that CWD spreads relatively slowly. Given increased discovery and distribution of CWD throughout North America, insights from our study are valuable to management agencies and to the general public concerned about the impacts of CWD on white-tailed deer populations.

  5. Controlling the geographical spread of infectious disease: plague in Italy, 1347-1851.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliff, Andrew D; Smallman-Raynor, Matthew R; Stevens, Peta M

    2009-01-01

    After the establishment of the first quarantine station in the Republic of Ragusa (modern-day Dubrovnik) in 1377, the states and principalities of Italy developed a sophisticated system of defensive quarantine in an attempt to protect themselves from the ravages of plague. Using largely unknown and unseen historical maps, this paper reconstructs the extent and operation of the system used. It is shown that a cordon sanitaire existed around the coast of Italy for several centuries, consisting of three elements: (i) an outer defensive ring of armed sailing boats in the Mediterranean and the Adriatic, (ii) a middle coastal ring of forts and observation towers, and (iii) an inner defensive ring of land-based cavalry. The principles established, although not especially successful at the time against a disease of (then) unknown aetiology, are still used today in attempts to control the spread of infections of animal and human populations.

  6. Spread of neuronal degeneration in a dopaminergic, Lrrk-G2019S model of Parkinson disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindle, Samantha J.; Elliott, Christopher J.H.

    2013-01-01

    Flies expressing the most common Parkinson disease (PD)-related mutation, LRRK2-G2019S, in their dopaminergic neurons show loss of visual function and degeneration of the retina, including mitochondrial abnormalities, apoptosis and autophagy. Since the photoreceptors that degenerate are not dopaminergic, this demonstrates nonautonomous degeneration, and a spread of pathology. This provides a model consistent with Braak’s hypothesis on progressive PD. The loss of visual function is specific for the G2019S mutation, implying the cause is its increased kinase activity, and is enhanced by increased neuronal activity. These data suggest novel explanations for the variability in animal models of PD. The specificity of visual loss to G2019S, coupled with the differences in neural firing rate, provide an explanation for the variability between people with PD in visual tests. PMID:23529190

  7. Contagiousness under antiretroviral therapy and stigmatization toward people with HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drewes, Jochen; Kleiber, Dieter

    2014-01-01

    Perceived contagiousness is a major dimension underlying HIV-related stigmatization. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can diminish contagiousness by reducing viral load levels in HIV-infected individuals. To test the assumption that reductions in contagiousness can lead to a decrease in stigmatizing reactions, we conducted an experimental online study. A sample of 752 participants (50.9% female) read a short vignette depicting an HIV-positive individual with either a high or a low viral load and were either given or not given information about the association between viral load and contagiousness. Subsequently, participants were asked to rate their willingness to stigmatize this individual by responding to two measures of social and physical distance. Differences between the low and the high viral load information groups and the combined no-information groups (forming a quasi-control group) were analyzed using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), controlling for gender and baseline perceptions of contagiousness. The covariates, perceived contagiousness at baseline and gender, were associated with social and physical distancing, but the viral load/information factor was only significant in physical distancing. Planned contrast analyses confirmed that physical distancing in the informed group was lower in the low viral load condition compared to the high viral load condition and to the control group. We thus found evidence for the significant role of perceived contagiousness in the HIV-related stigma and were able to experimentally demonstrate the potential of ART to reduce HIV-related stigmatization by lowering viral load and contagiousness, when these changes are accompanied by a decreased perception of contagiousness.

  8. Prediction of DHF disease spreading patterns using inverse distances weighted (IDW), ordinary and universal kriging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetiyowati, S. S.; Sibaroni, Y.

    2018-03-01

    Dengue hemorrhagic disease, is a disease caused by the Dengue virus of the Flavivirus genus Flaviviridae family. Indonesia is the country with the highest case of dengue in Southeast Asia. In addition to mosquitoes as vectors and humans as hosts, other environmental and social factors are also the cause of widespread dengue fever. To prevent the occurrence of the epidemic of the disease, fast and accurate action is required. Rapid and accurate action can be taken, if there is appropriate information support on the occurrence of the epidemic. Therefore, a complete and accurate information on the spread pattern of endemic areas is necessary, so that precautions can be done as early as possible. The information on dispersal patterns can be obtained by various methods, which are based on empirical and theoretical considerations. One of the methods used is based on the estimated number of infected patients in a region based on spatial and time. The first step of this research is conducted by predicting the number of DHF patients in 2016 until 2018 based on 2010 to 2015 data using GSTAR (1, 1). In the second phase, the distribution pattern prediction of dengue disease area is conducted. Furthermore, based on the characteristics of DHF epidemic trends, i.e. down, stable or rising, the analysis of distribution patterns of dengue fever distribution areas with IDW and Kriging (ordinary and universal Kriging) were conducted in this study. The difference between IDW and Kriging, is the initial process that underlies the prediction process. Based on the experimental results, it is known that the dispersion pattern of epidemic areas of dengue disease with IDW and Ordinary Kriging is similar in the period of time.

  9. Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.

    2003-01-01

    animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess......Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions...

  10. Avian influenza shedding patterns in waterfowl: implications for surveillance, environmental transmission, and disease spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henaux, Viviane; Samuel, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    Despite the recognized importance of fecal/oral transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) via contaminated wetlands, little is known about the length, quantity, or route of AI virus shed by wild waterfowl. We used published laboratory challenge studies to evaluate the length and quantity of low pathogenic (LP) and highly pathogenic (HP) virus shed via oral and cloacal routes by AI-infected ducks and geese, and how these factors might influence AI epidemiology and virus detection. We used survival analysis to estimate the duration of infection (from virus inoculation to the last day virus was shed) and nonlinear models to evaluate temporal patterns in virus shedding. We found higher mean virus titer and longer median infectious period for LPAI-infected ducks (10–11.5 days in oral and cloacal swabs) than HPAI-infected ducks (5 days) and geese (7.5 days). Based on the median bird infectious dose, we found that environmental contamination is two times higher for LPAI- than HPAI-infectious ducks, which implies that susceptible birds may have a higher probability of infection during LPAI than HPAI outbreaks. Less environmental contamination during the course of infection and previously documented shorter environmental persistence for HPAI than LPAI suggest that the environment is a less favorable reservoir for HPAI. The longer infectious period, higher virus titers, and subclinical infections with LPAI viruses favor the spread of these viruses by migratory birds in comparison to HPAI. Given the lack of detection of HPAI viruses through worldwide surveillance, we suggest monitoring for AI should aim at improving our understanding of AI dynamics (in particular, the role of the environment and immunity) using long-term comprehensive live bird, serologic, and environmental sampling at targeted areas. Our findings on LPAI and HPAI shedding patterns over time provide essential information to parameterize environmental transmission and virus spread in predictive

  11. Disease spread across multiple scales in a spatial hierarchy: effect of host spatial structure and of inoculum quantity and distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosme, Marie; Lucas, Philippe

    2009-07-01

    Spatial patterns of both the host and the disease influence disease spread and crop losses. Therefore, the manipulation of these patterns might help improve control strategies. Considering disease spread across multiple scales in a spatial hierarchy allows one to capture important features of epidemics developing in space without using explicitly spatialized variables. Thus, if the system under study is composed of roots, plants, and planting hills, the effect of host spatial pattern can be studied by varying the number of plants per planting hill. A simulation model based on hierarchy theory was used to simulate the effects of large versus small planting hills, low versus high level of initial infections, and aggregated versus uniform distribution of initial infections. The results showed that aggregating the initially infected plants always resulted in slower epidemics than spreading out the initial infections uniformly. Simulation results also showed that, in most cases, disease epidemics were slower in the case of large host aggregates (100 plants/hill) than with smaller aggregates (25 plants/hill), except when the initially infected plants were both numerous and spread out uniformly. The optimal strategy for disease control depends on several factors, including initial conditions. More importantly, the model offers a framework to account for the interplay between the spatial characteristics of the system, rates of infection, and aggregation of the disease.

  12. Social Network Sensors for Early Detection of Contagious Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christakis, Nicholas A.; Fowler, James H.

    2010-01-01

    Current methods for the detection of contagious outbreaks give contemporaneous information about the course of an epidemic at best. It is known that individuals near the center of a social network are likely to be infected sooner during the course of an outbreak, on average, than those at the periphery. Unfortunately, mapping a whole network to identify central individuals who might be monitored for infection is typically very difficult. We propose an alternative strategy that does not require ascertainment of global network structure, namely, simply monitoring the friends of randomly selected individuals. Such individuals are known to be more central. To evaluate whether such a friend group could indeed provide early detection, we studied a flu outbreak at Harvard College in late 2009. We followed 744 students who were either members of a group of randomly chosen individuals or a group of their friends. Based on clinical diagnoses, the progression of the epidemic in the friend group occurred 13.9 days (95% C.I. 9.9–16.6) in advance of the randomly chosen group (i.e., the population as a whole). The friend group also showed a significant lead time (pepidemic, a full 46 days before the peak in daily incidence in the population as a whole. This sensor method could provide significant additional time to react to epidemics in small or large populations under surveillance. The amount of lead time will depend on features of the outbreak and the network at hand. The method could in principle be generalized to other biological, psychological, informational, or behavioral contagions that spread in networks. PMID:20856792

  13. Risk Prevention of Spreading Emerging Infectious Diseases Using a HybridCrowdsensing Paradigm, Optical Sensors, and Smartphone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edoh, Thierry

    2018-04-10

    The risk of spreading diseases within (ad-hoc)crowds and the need to pervasively screen asymptomatic individuals to protect the population against emerging infectious diseases, request permanentcrowd surveillance., particularly in high-risk regions. Thecase of Ebola epidemic in West Africa in recent years has shown the need for pervasive screening. The trend today in diseases surveillance is consisting of epidemiological data collection about emerging infectious diseases using social media, wearable sensors systems, or mobile applications and data analysis. This approach presents various limitations. This paper proposes a novel approach for diseases monitoring and risk prevention of spreading infectious diseases. The proposed approach, aiming at overcoming the limitation of existing disease surveillance approaches, combines the hybrid crowdsensing paradigm with sensing individuals' bio-signals using optical sensors for monitoring any risks of spreading emerging infectious diseases in any (ad-hoc) crowds. A proof-of-concept has been performed using a drone armed with a cat s60 smartphone featuring a Forward Looking Infra-Red (FLIR) camera. According to the results of the conducted experiment, the concept has the potential to improve the conventional epidemiological data collection. The measurement is reliable, and the recorded data are valid. The measurement error rates are about 8%.

  14. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Compton J.; Yager, Karina; Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

    2011-01-01

    Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to

  15. Don't Let the Bugs Bite: Preventing Dengue and Other Diseases Spread by Mosquitoes

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This year (2007) CDC is receiving a great many reports of cases of Dengue fever, which is spread by mosquitoes. This podcast discusses ways travelers to the tropics can protect themselves from mosquito bites.

  16. Why contagious yawning does not (yet) equate to empathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massen, Jorg J M; Gallup, Andrew C

    2017-09-01

    Various studies and researchers have proposed a link between contagious yawning and empathy, yet the conceptual basis for the proposed connection is not clear and deserves critical evaluation. Therefore, we systematically examined the available empirical evidence addressing this association; i.e., a critical review of studies on inter-individual differences in contagion and self-reported values of empathy, differences in contagion based on familiarity or sex, and differences in contagion among individuals with psychological disorders, as well as developmental research, and brain imaging and neurophysiological studies. In doing so, we reveal a pattern of inconsistent and inconclusive evidence regarding the connection between contagious yawning and empathy. Furthermore, we identify study limitations and confounding variables, such as visual attention and social inhibition. Future research examining links between contagious yawning and empathy requires more rigorous investigation involving objective measurements to explicitly test for this connection. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. Spread of endemic disease and global change in an educational project: proposition of relationships developed in a twin partnership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela Viale

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The sudden event of the spread of dengue fever (or break-bone fever that appeared for the first time in Cape Verde in 2009 revealed that inappropriate management of waste can be considered a major cause of the spread of this disease. Dengue fever is a tropical infectious disease that is caused by the dengue virus. Its vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, found an optimal environment for its life cycle in the context of Cape Verde, with the persistence of water in abandoned waste objects. The connection between the topics of Earth sciences and the spread of this disease is not obvious, but it was explored and illustrated in a school partnership. Activities with pupils and students provided an opportunity to investigate how some global phenomena, like climate change (with an increase in local rainfall and higher temperatures, are related to local events, such as the spread of dengue fever. Preventive strategies are conditioned by the geomorphology of the territory and by the complex relationships that connect the geosphere and the biosphere. For this reason, it is important to be aware of the risk of breaking these delicate balances, and hence activating unexpected consequences. The roles played by both partners linked knowledge about the natural dynamics of our planet with the development of appropriate behavior, thus contributing to the formation of responsible citizenship, to preserve and protect the environment. The partnership encouraged students to develop sustainable management strategies against dengue fever, and consequently against waste, actively involving them at school, at home, and in their community. In this study, we present a case study of the role of a school partnership in a complex problem, such as the spread of dengue fever and environmental pollution.

  18. Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Garcia-Herranz

    Full Text Available Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global-scale networks.

  19. Spread of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD in Ontario (Canada swine herds: Part II. Matched case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Beth

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The emergence of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD was associated with high mortality in swine populations worldwide. Studies performed in different regions identified spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal trends as factors contributing to patterns of the disease spread. Patterns consistent with spatial trend and spatio-temporal clustering were already identified in this dataset. On the basis of these results, we have further investigated the nature of local spread in this report. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors for incidence cases of reported PCVAD. Results A time-matched case-control study was used as a study design approach, and conditional logistic regression as the analytical method. The main exposure of interest was local spread, which was defined as an unidentified mechanism of PCVAD spread between premises located within 3 kilometers of the Euclidean distance. Various modifications of variables indicative of local spread were also evaluated. The dataset contained 278 swine herds from Ontario originally sampled either from diagnostic laboratory submissions or directly from the target population. A PCVAD case was defined on the basis of the producer's recall. Existence of apparent local spread over the entire study period was confirmed (OR = 2.26, 95% CI: 1.06, 4.83, and was further identified to be time-varying in nature - herds experiencing outbreaks in the later part of the epidemic were more likely than control herds to be exposed to neighboring herds experiencing recent PCVAD outbreaks. More importantly, the pattern of local spread was driven by concurrent occurrence of PCVAD on premises under the same ownership (OREXACTwithin ownership = 25.6, 95% CI: 3.4, +inf; OREXACToutside ownership = 1.3, 95% CI: 0.45, 3.3. Other significant factors included PRRSv status of a herd (OREXACT = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.9, after adjusting for geographical location by including the binary

  20. Live pig markets in eastern Indonesia: Trader characteristics, biosecurity and implications for disease spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, Edwina E C; Geong, Maria; Abdurrahman, Muktasam; Ward, Michael P; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L

    2016-03-01

    Classical swine fever has been negatively impacting pig production in Nusa Tenggara Timur province in eastern Indonesia since its introduction in the 1990s, with live market trade contributing to disease spread. To understand market trader knowledge and practices regarding pig management, biosecurity, pig movements and pig health (specifically CSF), a repeated survey was conducted with pig sellers and pig buyers at 9 market sites across West Timor and the islands of Flores and Sumba. A total of 292 sellers and 281 buyers were interviewed in 2009 during two periods (rounds), a high-demand month (September) and a low-demand month (November). Information was collected via questionnaire. The majority of traders were male (sellers: 89%; buyers: 87%) with the highest level of completed education being primary school (sellers: 48%; buyers: 41%). The primary occupation of most respondents was farming: 90% of sellers and 87% of buyers were smallholder pig farmers and tended to sell their own home-raised pigs at market (52%). Pigs were sold for monetary gain either for primary (52%) or extra income (44%). Markets tended to be selected based on a good reputation (62%), a location close to residence (62%) and having the desired pig type (59%). Pig sales through markets were reported to be highest from August to October with 31% of sellers trading pigs at two or more markets. Prices at market were significantly higher on Sumba compared to West Timor and cross-bred pigs were significantly more expensive than indigenous pigs. Understanding of CSF and biosecurity was limited: 85% of sellers and 83% of buyers had no prior knowledge of CSF. Fifty-four percent of sellers reported no use of any biosecurity practices at market. Most respondents (88%) were able to recognise at least one clinical sign of a sick pig. Informal pig movements were also identified: 18% of pig buyers purchased pigs directly from other farmers. This study has provided baseline information on market trader

  1. Risk of Foot-and-Mouth Disease spread due to sole occupancy authorities and linked cattle holdings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J Orton

    Full Text Available Livestock movements in Great Britain are well recorded, have been extensively analysed with respect to their role in disease spread, and have been used in real time to advise governments on the control of infectious diseases. Typically, livestock holdings are treated as distinct entities that must observe movement standstills upon receipt of livestock, and must report livestock movements. However, there are currently two dispensations that can exempt holdings from either observing standstills or reporting movements, namely the Sole Occupancy Authority (SOA and Cattle Tracing System (CTS Links, respectively. In this report we have used a combination of data analyses and computational modelling to investigate the usage and potential impact of such linked holdings on the size of a Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD epidemic. Our analyses show that although SOAs are abundant, their dynamics appear relatively stagnant. The number of CTS Links is also abundant, and increasing rapidly. Although most linked holdings are only involved in a single CTS Link, some holdings are involved in numerous links that can be amalgamated to form "CTS Chains" which can be both large and geographically dispersed. Our model predicts that under a worst case scenario of "one infected - all infected", SOAs do pose a risk of increasing the size (in terms of number of infected holdings of a FMD epidemic, but this increase is mainly due to intra-SOA infection spread events. Furthermore, although SOAs do increase the geographic spread of an epidemic, this increase is predominantly local. Whereas, CTS Chains pose a risk of increasing both the size and the geographical spread of the disease substantially, under a worse case scenario. Our results highlight the need for further investigations into whether CTS Chains are transmission chains, and also investigations into intra-SOA movements and livestock distributions due to the lack of current data.

  2. Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations.

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.; Zhou, S.; Miller, J. C.; Cox, I. J.; Chain, B. M.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

  3. Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C.; Cox, Ingemar J.; Chain, Benjamin M.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

  4. Development of a Vaccine for Eradicating Contagious Bovine ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Since eventual success depends on the vaccine's acceptability by livestock keepers, the project involves them in field-testing and assesses their willingness to pay for the vaccine. The project also ... Outputs. Studies. Developing vaccines for animals, the case of Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in Africa. 53232.

  5. Sero-prevalence and associated risk factors of contagious Caprine ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sero-prevalence and associated risk factors of contagious Caprine pleuropneumonia in goats in selected districts of bale zone pastoral area, south eastern Ethiopia. ... Multivariable logistic regression statistical analysis revealed that age category, flock size, newly introduced goats and accessibility to veterinary service ...

  6. Grapevine yellows diseases in Spain: eight year survey of disease spread and molecular characterization of phytoplasmas involved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torres, Ester

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Among grapevine yellows phytoplasma diseases in Europe, flavescence dorée (FD is the most devastating and in the last decade has reached Spanish vineyards, mainly in Catalonia. An eight-year survey was carried out in the areas where the disease has spread (Alt Empordà, Catalonia, Northern Spain and in the remaining vine-growing areas of Catalonia. Sequence analyses of a portion of the 16S-23S ribosomal DNA cistron, from selected grapevine samples from Catalonia, showed that the phytoplasmas involved in grapevine yellows belong to 16S ribosomal subgroups V-D (flavescence dorée, FD and XII-A (bois noir, BN. A set of Spanish FD isolates collected during these years were further studied by RFLP analyses of the 16S-23S ribosomal DNA fragment, as well as the rpS3 and SecY genes. All the FD phytoplasma strains studied were related to phytoplasmas belonging to ribosomal protein subgroup rp-E.La flavescencia dorada (FD es la enfermedad más agresiva de entre todas las enfermedades de fitoplasmas que causan amarilleos de vid en Europa, y que en la última década ha alcanzado también a los viñedos de España, principalmente en Cataluña. Se ha realizado un seguimiento durante ocho años en las zonas donde la enfermedad se había difundido (Alt Empordà, Cataluña y en el resto de zonas con cultivo de vid de Cataluña. El análisis del fragmento del gen DNA ribosomal 16S-23S, de una selección de muestras de vides de Cataluña, indica que los fitoplasmas que están implicados en los amarilleos de vid pertenecen a los subgrupos ribosomales 16S V-D (flavescencia dorada, FD y XII-A (bois noir, BN. Una selección de aislados españoles de FD obtenidos durante estos años se ha examinado mediante análisis RFLP del fragmento del gen ribosomal 16S-23S, y de los genes rpS3 y SecY. Todos los aislamientos de fitoplasmas FD estudiados están relacionados con fitoplasmas pertenecientes al subgrupo de proteína ribosomal rp-E.

  7. Contagious equine metritis in Portugal: A retrospective report of the first outbreak in the country and recent contagious equine metritis test results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Rocha

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Contagious equine metritis (CEM, a highly contagious bacterial venereal infection of equids, caused by Taylorella equigenitalis, is of major international concern, causing short-term infertility in mares. Portugal has a long tradition of horse breeding and exportation and until recently was considered CEM-free. However, in 2008, T. equigenitalis was isolated at our laboratory from a recently imported stallion and 2 mares from the same stud. Following this first reported outbreak, the Portuguese Veterinary Authority (DGVA performed mandatory testing on all remaining equines at the stud (n=30, resulting in a further 4 positive animals. All positive animals were treated and subsequently tested negative for T. equigenitalis. Since this outbreak, over 2000 genital swabs from Portuguese horses have been tested at our laboratory, with no further positive animals identified. The available data suggests that this CEM outbreak was an isolated event and we have no further evidence of CEM cases in Portugal, however, an extended and wider epidemiological study would be needed to better evaluate the incidence of the disease in Portuguese horses.

  8. Active surveillance of the aquatic environment for potential prediction, prevention and spread of water borne disease: the cholera paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huq, A.; Colwell, R.

    2011-12-01

    Based on results of ecological and epidemiological studies, occurrence and spread of certain diseases are more fully understood. Cholera is a major waterborne disease, that is relatively easily treatable and clearly preventable, yet tens of thousands die each year worldwide. A dose dependent disease, the infectious dose can vary from 103-106, depending on health status of the victim. Historically, cholera has been shown to spread from person to person. Furthermore, the disease is caused predominantly via ingestion of contaminated water and most of the outbreaks that have been recorded worldwide originated in a coastal region. Using appropriate detection methods, Vibrio cholerae can be isolated from samples collected from ponds, rivers, estuaries, and coastal waters globally. The populations of V. cholerae may vary in numbers during different seasons of the year. It is important to have a clear understanding of the distribution of the causative agent in the environment as such information can assist public health officials in taking action to prevent outbreaks of cholera. Thus an effective monitoring program is critical, particularly in light of climate change with temperature extremes more likely to be occurring. Based on a predictive model and results of ground truth data, temperature has been found to be a factor in the increase of V. cholerae in the environment. Correlation was observed with occurrence of cholera and both temperature and salinity. More recent research indicates additional factors need to be considered in predicting cholera epidemics, including the hydrology and disease dynamics.

  9. Metastatic disease of the brain: extra-axial metastases (skull, dura, leptomeningeal) and tumour spread

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maroldi, Roberto; Ambrosi, Claudia; Farina, Davide [University of Brescia, Department of Radiology, Brescia, BS (Italy)

    2005-03-01

    Extra-axial intracranial metastases may arise through several situations. Hematogenous spread to the meninges is the most frequent cause. Direct extension from contiguous extra-cranial neoplasms, secondary invasion of the meninges by calvarium and skull base metastases, and migration along perineural or perivascular structures are less common. Leptomeningeal invasion gives rise to tumour cell dissemination by the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), eventually leading to neoplastic coating of brain surfaces. Contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) imaging is complementary to CSF examinations and can be invaluable, detecting up to 50% of false-negative lumbar punctures. MR findings range from diffuse linear leptomeningeal enhancement to multiple enhancing extra-axial nodules, obstructive communicating and non-communicating hydrocephalus. Both calvarial and epidural metastases infrequently transgress the dura, which acts as a barrier against tumour spread. Radionuclide bone studies are still a valuable screening test to detect bone metastases. With computed tomography (CT) and MR, bone metastases extending intracranially and primary dural metastases show the characteristic biconvex shape, usually associated with brain displacement away from the inner table. Although CT is better in detecting skull base erosion, MR is more sensitive and provides more detailed information about dural involvement. Perineural and perivascular spread from head and neck neoplasms require thin-section contrast-enhanced MR. (orig.)

  10. O alcoolismo é uma doença contagiosa? Representações sobre o contágio e a doença de ex-bebedores Is alcoholism a contagious disease? Representations on contagion and disease of ex-drinkers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edemilson Antunes de Campos

    2005-12-01

    stressed. Here alcoholism is viewed as a "contagious" disease, from a study on cultural representations, social practices and the (rebuilding of identity, linked to the alcoholism/disease couple. In fact, it becomes clear that, for AA members and your family, the possibilities of contagion of the alcoholic disease are directly linked to representations built on alcohol and alcoholism, understood as a physical and moral disease and to its effects on the whole of socials relationships - both family and professional - in which ex-drinkers are involved.

  11. Developing a vaccine for eradicating contagious bovine ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    sub-Saharan Africa. CBPP kills up to 50% of infected animals, when newly introduced into a population, and many ... animal and human diseases. While vaccines for CBPP are available, they have several ... project involves them in field testing and assesses their willingness to pay for the vaccine. The project also examines.

  12. Perspectives on How Human Simultaneous Multi-Modal Imaging Adds Directionality to Spread Models of Alzheimer’s Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Neitzel

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Previous animal research suggests that the spread of pathological agents in Alzheimer’s disease (AD follows the direction of signaling pathways. Specifically, tau pathology has been suggested to propagate in an infection-like mode along axons, from transentorhinal cortices to medial temporal lobe cortices and consequently to other cortical regions, while amyloid-beta (Aβ pathology seems to spread in an activity-dependent manner among and from isocortical regions into limbic and then subcortical regions. These directed connectivity-based spread models, however, have not been tested directly in AD patients due to the lack of an in vivo method to identify directed connectivity in humans. Recently, a new method—metabolic connectivity mapping (MCM—has been developed and validated in healthy participants that uses simultaneous FDG-PET and resting-state fMRI data acquisition to identify directed intrinsic effective connectivity (EC. To this end, postsynaptic energy consumption (FDG-PET is used to identify regions with afferent input from other functionally connected brain regions (resting-state fMRI. Here, we discuss how this multi-modal imaging approach allows quantitative, whole-brain mapping of signaling direction in AD patients, thereby pointing out some of the advantages it offers compared to other EC methods (i.e., Granger causality, dynamic causal modeling, Bayesian networks. Most importantly, MCM provides the basis on which models of pathology spread, derived from animal studies, can be tested in AD patients. In particular, future work should investigate whether tau and Aβ in humans propagate along the trajectories of directed connectivity in order to advance our understanding of the neuropathological mechanisms causing disease progression.

  13. Climate impact on spreading of airborne infectious diseases. Complex network based modeling of climate influences on influenza like illnesses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

    2017-06-01

    In this study we combined a wide range of data sets to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human. The basis is a complex network whose structures are inspired by global air traffic data (from openflights.org) containing information about airports, airport locations, direct flight connections and airplane types. Disease spreading inside every node is realized with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. Disease transmission rates in our model are depending on the climate environment and therefore vary in time and from node to node. To implement the correlation between water vapor pressure and influenza transmission rate [J. Shaman, M. Kohn, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 3243 (2009)], we use global available climate reanalysis data (WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim, WFDEI). During our sensitivity analysis we found that disease spreading dynamics are strongly depending on network properties, the climatic environment of the epidemic outbreak location, and the season during the year in which the outbreak is happening.

  14. Spread of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD in Ontario (Canada swine herds: Part I. Exploratory spatial analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Beth

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The systemic form of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD, also known as postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS was initially detected in the early 1990s. Starting in 2004, the Canadian swine industry experienced considerable losses due to PCVAD, concurrent with a shift in genotype of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2. Objectives of the current study were to explore spatial characteristics of self-reported PCVAD distribution in Ontario between 2004 and 2008, and to investigate the existence and nature of local spread. Results The study included 278 swine herds from a large disease-monitoring project that included porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS virus-positive herds identified by the diagnostic laboratory, and PRRS virus-negative herds directly from the target population. Herds were included if they had growing pigs present on-site and available geographical coordinates for the sampling site. Furthermore, herds were defined as PCVAD-positive if a producer reported an outbreak of circovirus associated disease, or as PCVAD-negative if no outbreak was noted. Spatial trend was investigated using generalized additive models and time to PCVAD outbreak in a herd using Cox's proportional hazard model; spatial and spatio-temporal clustering was explored using K-functions; and location of most likely spatial and spatio-temporal clusters was investigated using scan statistics. Over the study period, the risk of reporting a PCVAD-positive herd tended to be higher in the eastern part of the province after adjustment for herd PRRS status (P = 0.05. This was partly confirmed for spread (Partial P P = 0.06 existence of spatio-temporal clustering of PCVAD and detection of a spatio-temporal cluster (P = 0.04. Conclusions In Ontario, PCVAD has shown a general trend, spreading from east-to-west. We interpret the existence of spatio-temporal clustering as evidence of spatio-temporal aggregation of PCVAD

  15. Pricing and Hedging of Derivatives in Contagious Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    It is well documented that stock markets are contagious. A negative shock to one market increases the probability of adverse shocks to other markets. We model this contagion effect by including mutually exciting jump processes in the dynamics of the indexes' log-returns. On top of this we add...... a stochastic volatility component to the dynamics. It is important to take the contagion effect into account if derivatives written on a basket of assets are to be priced or hedged. Due to the affine model specification the joint characteristic function of the log-returns is known analytically, and for two......-asset derivatives prices and show how for certain derivatives the impact is heavy. Moreover, we derive hedge ratios for European put and call options and perform a numerical experiment, which illustrates the impact of contagious jumps on option prices and hedge ratios. Mutually exciting processes have been analyzed...

  16. Determination of degree of oncologic disease spreading with the use of radioimmunoassay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chebotareva, Eh.D.; Shishkina, V.V.; Korolev, V.I.; Sklyar, S.Yu.; Kukot', V.A.

    1989-01-01

    An effort to evaluate the possibility of applying tumor morkers to determine the degree of oncologic desease propagation is made. Radioimmunoassay of 431 patients with tumors with different localization is performed. In patients with lung, esophagus, stomach, rectum cancer the level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) in the blood serum is studied, with mammary gland cancer - the CEA, ferritin and prolactin levels. An increase of CEA level is detected under wide-spread forms of lung, esophagus, stomach and rectum cancer, and an increase of CEA, ferritin and prolactin levels-under mammary gland cancer. It is shown that radioimmunoassay of tumor marker level is quite information content as to the evaluation of tumor process propagation under digestive tract, lung and mammary gland cancer. 12 refs.; 5 tabs

  17. Emergencies in the retroperitoneum: assessment of spread of disease by helical CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scialpi, M. E-mail: michelescialpi@libero.it; Scaglione, M.; Angelelli, G.; Lupattelli, L.; Resta, M.C.; Resta, M.; Rotondo, A

    2004-04-01

    Acute pancreatitis, leaking abdominal aortic aneurysm, and renal trauma frequently occur in the setting of patients with abdominal nontraumatic and traumatic injury; it represents the most urgent conditions that may determine the presence of fluid collections or haematoma in the retroperitoneum. Single spiral CT and multidetector-row CT (MDCT) play an important role in diagnosis of retroperitoneal emergencies, providing useful informations on the type, site, extent and management of the fluid collections. An accurate CT assessment requires the awareness of the existence of dissectable retroperitoneal fascial planes. Fluid collections or haematoma tends to escape the retroperitoneal site of origin into planes extend from the diaphragm to the pelvic floor. We assess the multicompartimental anatomy of the retroperitoneum and the pathway of spread of the most frequent retroperitoneal fluid collections or haematoma by helical CT.

  18. Disease spread models to estimate highly uncertain emerging diseases losses for animal agriculture insurance policies: an application to the U.S. farm-raised catfish industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagmutt, Francisco J; Sempier, Stephen H; Hanson, Terril R

    2013-10-01

    Emerging diseases (ED) can have devastating effects on agriculture. Consequently, agricultural insurance for ED can develop if basic insurability criteria are met, including the capability to estimate the severity of ED outbreaks with associated uncertainty. The U.S. farm-raised channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) industry was used to evaluate the feasibility of using a disease spread simulation modeling framework to estimate the potential losses from new ED for agricultural insurance purposes. Two stochastic models were used to simulate the spread of ED between and within channel catfish ponds in Mississippi (MS) under high, medium, and low disease impact scenarios. The mean (95% prediction interval (PI)) proportion of ponds infected within disease-impacted farms was 7.6% (3.8%, 22.8%), 24.5% (3.8%, 72.0%), and 45.6% (4.0%, 92.3%), and the mean (95% PI) proportion of fish mortalities in ponds affected by the disease was 9.8% (1.4%, 26.7%), 49.2% (4.7%, 60.7%), and 88.3% (85.9%, 90.5%) for the low, medium, and high impact scenarios, respectively. The farm-level mortality losses from an ED were up to 40.3% of the total farm inventory and can be used for insurance premium rate development. Disease spread modeling provides a systematic way to organize the current knowledge on the ED perils and, ultimately, use this information to help develop actuarially sound agricultural insurance policies and premiums. However, the estimates obtained will include a large amount of uncertainty driven by the stochastic nature of disease outbreaks, by the uncertainty in the frequency of future ED occurrences, and by the often sparse data available from past outbreaks. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. In vitro susceptibility of contagious ovine digital dermatitis associated Treponema spp. isolates to antimicrobial agents in the UK

    OpenAIRE

    Angell, Joseph W.; Clegg, Simon R.; Sullivan, Leigh E.; Duncan, Jennifer S.; Grove?White, Dai H.; Carter, Stuart D.; Evans, Nicholas J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Contagious ovine digital dermatitis (CODD) is an important cause of infectious lameness in sheep in the UK and Ireland and has a severe impact on the welfare of affected individuals. The three treponemal phylogroups Treponema medium/Treponema vincentii-like, Treponema phagedenis-like and Treponema pedis spirochaetes have been associated with clinical CODD lesions and are considered to be a necessary cause of disease. There are scant data on the antimicrobial susceptibility of the ...

  20. A social contagious model of the obesity epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, He; Yan, Zhijun; Chen, Yahong; Liu, Fangyan

    2016-11-01

    Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by WHO, followed by many empirical evidences to prove its infectiousness. However, the inter-person spreading dynamics of obesity are seldom studied. A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a social contagion process which cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease models. In this paper, we propose a novel belief decision model based on the famous Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to model obesity epidemic as the competing spread of two obesity-related behaviors: physical inactivity and physical activity. The transition of health states is described by an SIS model. Results reveal the existence of obesity epidemic threshold, above which obesity is quickly eradicated. When increasing the fading level of information spread, enlarging the clustering of initial obese seeds, or introducing small-world characteristics into the network topology, the threshold is easily met. Social discrimination against the obese people plays completely different roles in two cases: on one hand, when obesity cannot be eradicated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination may instead cause it breaking out.

  1. Intercontinental spread of a genetically distinctive complex of clones of Neisseria meningitidis causing epidemic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caugant, D A; Frøholm, L O; Bøvre, K; Holten, E; Frasch, C E; Mocca, L F; Zollinger, W D; Selander, R K

    1986-07-01

    Strains of Neisseria meningitidis responsible for an epidemic of meningococcal disease occurring in Norway since the mid-1970s and for recent increases in the incidence of disease in several other parts of Europe have been identified by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis as members of a distinctive group of 22 closely related clones (the ET-5 complex). Clones of this complex have also colonized South Africa, Chile, Cuba, and Florida, where they have been identified as the causative agents of recent outbreaks of meningococcal disease. There is strong circumstantial evidence that outbreaks of disease occurring in Miami in 1981 and 1982 were caused in large part by bacteria that reached Florida via human immigrants from Cuba.

  2. Isolation of the contagious equine metritis organism from colts and fillies in the United Kingdom and Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timoney, P J; Powell, D G

    1982-11-20

    Between January 1978 and August 1982 the streptomycin resistant strain of the contagious equine metritis organism (CEMO) was isolated from 15 colts and two fillies in the United Kingdom and Ireland. A first season stallion was also suspected of having initiated an outbreak of contagious equine metritis (CEM) at the beginning of the 1982 breeding season. A detailed investigation of the breeding history of the dams and sires of each positive individual indicated that in a number of cases the CEMO was acquired either in utero or following transmission at the time of parturition. In several other cases the retrospective evidence suggested that the genital tract of colt foals became contaminated with vaginal discharge from mares showing clinical signs of the disease during the nursing period. The findings emphasise the need for a thorough examination of the genital tract of colts and fillies as recommended in the code of practice for the control of CEM when they begin their breeding career.

  3. A High Explanatory Power Model of Foot and Mouth Disease Spread in Central California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    millions of animals. Susceptible animals include cattle, water buffalo, sheep, goats, pigs, antelope, deer, hedgehogs, elephants, llama, alpaca and...defines infectivity to be “a factor that determines the behavior of the disease, once individuals at a location become infected.” It includes the

  4. Indoor air in long term care facilities and spread of infectious diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    te Kulve, M.; Loomans, M.G.L.C.; Huisman, E.; Kort, H.S.M.

    2014-01-01

    Not much is known about the favourable indoor air conditions in long term care facilities (ltcf’s), where older adults suffering from dementia live. Due to the decrease in cognition function, it is hard to evaluate comfort and health in this group. Nevertheless, infectious diseases are a persistent

  5. The African buffalo: A villain for inter-species spread of infectious diseases in southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita L. Michel

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer is a large wild bovid which until recently ranged across all but the driest parts of sub-Saharan Africa, and their local range being limited to about 20 km from surface water. They are of high ecological value due to their important role as bulk feeders in the grazing hierarchy. They also have high economic value, because they are one of the sought after ‘Big Five’ in the eco-tourism industry. In Africa, buffaloes have been recognised for some time as an important role player in the maintenance and transmission of a variety of economically important livestock diseases at the wildlife and/or livestock interface. These include African strains of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD, Corridor disease (theileriosis, bovine tuberculosis and bovine brucellosis. For a number of other diseases of veterinary importance, African buffaloes may also serve as amplifier or incidental host, whereby infection with the causative pathogens may cause severe clinical signs such as death or abortion as in the case of anthrax and Rift Valley fever, or remain mild or subclinical for example heartwater. The long term health implications of most of those infections on the buffalo at a population level is usually limited, and they do not pose a threat on the population’s survival. Because of their ability to harbour and transmit important diseases to livestock, their sustainable future in ecotourism, trade and transfrontier conservation projects become complex and costly and reliable diagnostic tools are required to monitor these infections in buffalo populations.

  6. Evolução dos isolamentos em doenças transmissíveis: os saberes na prática contemporânea Evolución del aislamiento en las enfermedades transmisibles: los saberes en la práctica contemporánea Evolution of the isolation of contagious diseases: knowledge in contemporary practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lúcia Yasuko Izumi Nichiata

    2004-03-01

    that were formulated and implemented. Since the beginning of the modern nursing, in the XIX century, the elements of the isolation practice for contagious diseases have remained basically the same. In other words, the emphasis on the use of mechanical, chemical and environmental barriers are given, based on inherent specificities of each part of the infectious chain process.

  7. Resource-driven encounters among consumers and implications for the spread of infectious disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Jason M.

    2017-01-01

    Animals share a variety of common resources, which can be a major driver of conspecific encounter rates. In this work, we implement a spatially explicit mathematical model for resource visitation behaviour in order to examine how changes in resource availability can influence the rate of encounters among consumers. Using simulations and asymptotic analysis, we demonstrate that, under a reasonable set of assumptions, the relationship between resource availability and consumer conspecific encounters is not monotonic. We characterize how the maximum encounter rate and associated critical resource density depend on system parameters like consumer density and the maximum distance from which consumers can detect and respond to resources. The assumptions underlying our theoretical model and analysis are motivated by observations of large aggregations of black-backed jackals at carcasses generated by seasonal outbreaks of anthrax among herbivores in Etosha National Park, Namibia. As non-obligate scavengers, black-backed jackals use carcasses as a supplemental food resource when they are available. While jackals do not appear to acquire disease from ingesting anthrax carcasses, changes in their movement patterns in response to changes in carcass abundance do alter jackals' conspecific encounter rate in ways that may affect the transmission dynamics of other diseases, such as rabies. Our theoretical results provide a method to quantify and analyse the hypothesis that the outbreak of a fatal disease among herbivores can potentially facilitate outbreaks of an entirely different disease among jackals. By analysing carcass visitation data, we find support for our model's prediction that the number of conspecific encounters at resource sites decreases with additional increases in resource availability. Whether or not this site-dependent effect translates to an overall decrease in encounters depends, unexpectedly, on the relationship between the maximum distance of detection and

  8. Outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease associated with person to person spread in hotels and restaurants.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDonnell, R J

    1995-09-15

    Twenty-eight outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease, reported as being transmitted mainly by the person to person route, were identified in association with retail catering premises, such as hotels, restaurants, and public houses, in England and Wales between 1992 and 1994. Five thousand and forty-eight people were at risk in these outbreaks and 1234 were affected. Most of the outbreaks (over 90%) occurred in hotels. Small round structured viruses were the most commonly detected pathogens. Diarrhoea and vomiting were common symptoms and most of the outbreaks occurred in the summer months. Control measures to contain infectious individuals and improved hygiene measures are necessary to contain such outbreaks.

  9. Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance Strategies in Contagious Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buccioli, Alice; Kokholm, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    charging and for risk management. The literature on CPPI modeling typically assumes diffusive or Lévy-driven dynamics for the risky asset underlying the strategy. In either case the self-contagious nature of asset prices is not taken into account. In order to account for contagion while preserving......Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) strategies are popular as they allow to gear up the upside potential of a stock index while limiting its downside risk. From the issuer's perspective it is important to adequately assess the risks associated with the CPPI, both for correct "gap'' fee...

  10. The development of pathogen resistance in Daphnia magna: implications for disease spread in age-structured populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbutt, Jennie S; O'Donoghue, Anna J P; McTaggart, Seanna J; Wilson, Philip J; Little, Tom J

    2014-11-01

    Immunity in vertebrates is well established to develop with time, but the ontogeny of defence in invertebrates is markedly less studied. Yet, age-specific capacity for defence against pathogens, coupled with age structure in populations, has widespread implications for disease spread. Thus, we sought to determine the susceptibility of hosts of different ages in an experimental invertebrate host-pathogen system. In a series of experiments, we show that the ability of Daphnia magna to resist its natural bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa changes with host age. Clonal differences make it difficult to draw general conclusions, but the majority of observations indicate that resistance increases early in the life of D. magna, consistent with the idea that the defence system develops with time. Immediately following this, at about the time when a daphnid would be most heavily investing in reproduction, resistance tends to decline. Because many ecological factors influence the age structure of Daphnia populations, our results highlight a broad mechanism by which ecological context can affect disease epidemiology. We also show that a previously observed protective effect of restricted maternal food persists throughout the entire juvenile period, and that the protective effect of prior treatment with a small dose of the pathogen ('priming') persists for 7 days, observations that reinforce the idea that immunity in D. magna can change over time. Together, our experiments lead us to conclude that invertebrate defence capabilities have an ontogeny that merits consideration with respect to both their immune systems and the epidemic spread of infection. © 2014. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  11. Assessing the consequences of an incursion of a vector-borne disease. II. Spread of bluetongue in Scotland and impact of vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille Szmaragd

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Bluetongue is a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges, which has spread across Europe over the past decade. The disease arrived in south-east England in 2007, raising the possibility that it could pose a risk to the valuable Scottish livestock industry. As part of an assessment of the economic consequences of a bluetongue virus incursion into Scotland commissioned by Scottish Government, we investigated a defined set of feasible incursion scenarios under different vaccination strategies. Our epidemiological simulations, based on expert knowledge, highlighted that infection will rarely spread in Scotland after the initial incursion and will be efficiently controlled by vaccination. Keywords: Epidemiology, modelling, disease control

  12. Optimizing hybrid spreading in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C; Cox, Ingemar J; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-04-29

    Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics.

  13. A review of trends in the distribution of vector-borne diseases: is international trade contributing to their spread?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de La Rocque, S; Balenghien, T; Halos, L; Dietze, K; Claes, F; Ferrari, G; Guberti, V; Slingenbergh, J

    2011-04-01

    It is difficult to determine the part that international trade has played in the expansion of vector-borne diseases, because of the multitude of factors that affect the transformation of habitats and the interfaces between vectors and hosts. The introduction of pathogens through trade in live animals or products of animal origin, as well as the arrival of arthropod vectors, is probably quite frequent but the establishment of an efficient transmission system that develops into a disease outbreak remains the exception. In this paper, based on well-documented examples, the authors review the ecological and epidemiological characteristics of vector-borne diseases that may have been affected in their spread and change of distribution by international trade. In addition, they provide a detailed analysis of the risks associated with specific trade routes and recent expansions of vector populations. Finally, the authors highlight the importance, as well as the challenges, of preventive surveillance and regulation. The need for improved monitoring of vector populations and a readiness to face unpredictable epidemiological events are also emphasised, since this will require rapid reaction, not least in the regulatory context.

  14. Indirect Genetic Effects and the Spread of Infectious Disease: Are We Capturing the Full Heritable Variation Underlying Disease Prevalence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipschutz-Powell, Debby; Woolliams, John A.; Bijma, Piter; Doeschl-Wilson, Andrea B.

    2012-01-01

    Reducing disease prevalence through selection for host resistance offers a desirable alternative to chemical treatment. Selection for host resistance has proven difficult, however, due to low heritability estimates. These low estimates may be caused by a failure to capture all the relevant genetic variance in disease resistance, as genetic analysis currently is not taylored to estimate genetic variation in infectivity. Host infectivity is the propensity of transmitting infection upon contact with a susceptible individual, and can be regarded as an indirect effect to disease status. It may be caused by a combination of physiological and behavioural traits. Though genetic variation in infectivity is difficult to measure directly, Indirect Genetic Effect (IGE) models, also referred to as associative effects or social interaction models, allow the estimation of this variance from more readily available binary disease data (infected/non-infected). We therefore generated binary disease data from simulated populations with known amounts of variation in susceptibility and infectivity to test the adequacy of traditional and IGE models. Our results show that a conventional model fails to capture the genetic variation in infectivity inherent in populations with simulated infectivity. An IGE model, on the other hand, does capture some of the variation in infectivity. Comparison with expected genetic variance suggests that there is scope for further methodological improvement, and that potential responses to selection may be greater than values presented here. Nonetheless, selection using an index of estimated direct and indirect breeding values was shown to have a greater genetic selection differential and reduced future disease risk than traditional selection for resistance only. These findings suggest that if genetic variation in infectivity substantially contributes to disease transmission, then breeding designs which explicitly incorporate IGEs might help reduce disease

  15. The SIS Model of Epidemic Spreading in a Hierarchical Social Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grabowski, A.; Kosinski, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    The phenomenon of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The SIS model with temporal immunity to a disease and a time of incubation is used. In our model spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions and the mobility of a contemporary community are taken into account. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. The influence of the structure of the social network on typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, is discussed. The probability that endemic state occurs is also calculated. Surprisingly it occurs, that less contagious diseases has greater chance to survive. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated and critical range of vaccinations that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results of numerical calculations are compared with the solutions of the master equation for the spreading process, and good agreement is found. (author)

  16. Heterogeneity in the spread and control of infectious disease: consequences for the elimination of canine rabies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Elaine A.; Hampson, Katie; Cleaveland, Sarah; Consunji, Ramona; Deray, Raffy; Friar, John; Haydon, Daniel T.; Jimenez, Joji; Pancipane, Marlon; Townsend, Sunny E.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the factors influencing vaccination campaign effectiveness is vital in designing efficient disease elimination programmes. We investigated the importance of spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and human-mediated dog movements for the elimination of endemic canine rabies by mass dog vaccination in Region VI of the Philippines (Western Visayas). Household survey data was used to parameterise a spatially-explicit rabies transmission model with realistic dog movement and vaccination coverage scenarios, assuming a basic reproduction number for rabies drawn from the literature. This showed that heterogeneous vaccination reduces elimination prospects relative to homogeneous vaccination at the same overall level. Had the three vaccination campaigns completed in Region VI in 2010-2012 been homogeneous, they would have eliminated rabies with high probability. However, given the observed heterogeneity, three further campaigns may be required to achieve elimination with probability 0.95. We recommend that heterogeneity be reduced in future campaigns through targeted efforts in low coverage areas, even at the expense of reduced coverage in previously high coverage areas. Reported human-mediated dog movements did not reduce elimination probability, so expending limited resources on restricting dog movements is unnecessary in this endemic setting. Enhanced surveillance will be necessary post-elimination, however, given the reintroduction risk from long-distance dog movements.

  17. Dilation of Malignant Strictures in Endoscopic Ultrasound Staging of Esophageal Cancer and Metastatic Spread of Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn M. Hancock

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Dilation of malignant strictures in endoscopic ultrasound (EUS staging of esophageal cancer is safe, but no data exists regarding the subsequent development of metastases. Aim. Compare the rates of metastases in esophageal cancer patients undergoing EUS staging who require esophageal dilation in order to pass the echoendoscope versus those who do not. Methods. We reviewed consecutive patients referred for EUS staging of esophageal cancer. We evaluated whether dilation was necessary in order to pass the echoendoscope, and for the subsequent development of metastases after EUS at various time intervals. Results. Among all patients with similar stage (locally advanced disease, defined as T3, N0, M0 or T1-3, N1, M0, there was no difference between the dilated and nondilated groups in the rates of metastases at 3 months (14% versus 10%, =1.0, 6 months (28% versus 20%, =0.69, 12 months (43% versus 40%, =1.0, or ever during a mean followup of 15 months (71% versus 55%, =0.48. Conclusions. Dilation of malignant strictures for EUS staging of esophageal cancer does not appear to lead to higher rates of distant metastases.

  18. Production and efficacy of an attenuated live vaccine against contagious ovine ecthyma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Attilio Pini

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Contagious ecthyma is caused by the orf virus, a member of the family Poxviridae, genus Parapoxvirus. Morbidity in affected sheep flocks is approximately 100%, while mortality varies between 1% and 10%. A live attenuated vaccine was produced by the Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell’Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’. Quality control was performed in accordance with the European Pharmacopoeia. A wild virus strain was attenuated through serial passages on primary chicken embryo fibroblast tissue cultures. The virus suspension was treated according to standard procedures and freeze dried. The immunising dose was 1 ml containing 104,5TCID50, administered intramuscularly. The safety of the vaccine was successfully tested by intramuscular inoculation of 20 susceptible sheep and 20 lambs with the routine dose, 10 times the immunising dose and two normal doses administered at seven-day intervals. The efficacy of the vaccine was tested using three groups of susceptible animals. The first group included 10 lambs and the second 10 adult sheep; the animals were immunised intramuscularly with 1 ml of the reconstituted vaccine. The third group, used as controls, included five sheep and five lambs. Serological reactivity was monitored by indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. The animals were challenged 30 days later with a pathogenic strain administered intradermally along the labial area. Vaccinated animals did not show any clinical signs of disease, whereas all the controls developed typical signs of contagious ecthyma. To confirm the efficacy of the vaccine, a field trial was conducted in four flocks affected by the disease. The trial showed that the vaccine was able to block the normal course of the disease and induce rapid recovery.

  19. Demodex gatoi -associated contagious pruritic dermatosis in cats - a report from six households in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajaniemi Riitta-Liisa

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Demodex gatoi is unique among demodectic mites. It possesses a distinct stubby appearance, and, instead of residing in the hair follicles, it dwells in the keratin layer of the epidermis, causing a pruritic and contagious skin disease in cats. Little is known of the occurrence of D. gatoi in Europe or control of D. gatoi infestation. Case presentation We describe D. gatoi in 10 cats, including five Cornish Rex, two Burmese, one Exotic, one Persian and one Siamese, living in six multi-cat households in different locations in Finland containing 21 cats in total. Intense pruritus was the main clinical sign. Scaling, broken hairs, alopecia and self-inflicted excoriations were also observed. Diagnosis was based on finding typical short-bodied demodectic mites in skin scrapings, skin biopsies or on tape strips. Other pruritic skin diseases, such as allergies and dermatophytoses, were ruled out. In one household, despite finding several mites on one cat, all six cats of the household remained symptomless. Amitraz used weekly at a concentration of 125-250 ppm for 2-3 months, proved successful in three households, 2% lime sulphur weekly dips applied for six weeks in one household and peroral ivermectin (1 mg every other day for 10 weeks in one household. Previous trials in four households with imidacloprid-moxidectin, selamectin or injected ivermectin given once or twice a month appeared ineffective. Conclusion D. gatoi-associated dermatitis is an emerging contagious skin disease in cats in Finland. Although pruritus is common, some cats may harbour the mites without clinical signs. In addition, due to translucency of the mites and fastidious feline grooming habits, the diagnosis may be challenging. An effective and convenient way to treat D. gatoi infestations has yet to emerge.

  20. Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mossong, Joël; Hens, Niel; Jit, Mark; Beutels, Philippe; Auranen, Kari; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Massari, Marco; Salmaso, Stefania; Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia; Wallinga, Jacco; Heijne, Janneke; Sadkowska-Todys, Malgorzata; Rosinska, Magdalena; Edmunds, W. John

    2008-01-01

    Background Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology. Methods and Findings 7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible. Conclusions To our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies. PMID:18366252

  1. Indirect Genetic Effects and the Spread of Infectious Disease: Are We Capturing the Full Heritable Variation Underlying Disease Prevalence?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lipschutz-Powell, D.; Woolliams, J.A.; Bijma, P.; Doeschl-Wilson, A.B.

    2012-01-01

    Reducing disease prevalence through selection for host resistance offers a desirable alternative to chemical treatment. Selection for host resistance has proven difficult, however, due to low heritability estimates. These low estimates may be caused by a failure to capture all the relevant genetic

  2. Far-UVC light: A new tool to control the spread of airborne-mediated microbial diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, David; Buonanno, Manuela; Grilj, Veljko; Shuryak, Igor; Crickmore, Connor; Bigelow, Alan W; Randers-Pehrson, Gerhard; Johnson, Gary W; Brenner, David J

    2018-02-09

    Airborne-mediated microbial diseases such as influenza and tuberculosis represent major public health challenges. A direct approach to prevent airborne transmission is inactivation of airborne pathogens, and the airborne antimicrobial potential of UVC ultraviolet light has long been established; however, its widespread use in public settings is limited because conventional UVC light sources are both carcinogenic and cataractogenic. By contrast, we have previously shown that far-UVC light (207-222 nm) efficiently inactivates bacteria without harm to exposed mammalian skin. This is because, due to its strong absorbance in biological materials, far-UVC light cannot penetrate even the outer (non living) layers of human skin or eye; however, because bacteria and viruses are of micrometer or smaller dimensions, far-UVC can penetrate and inactivate them. We show for the first time that far-UVC efficiently inactivates airborne aerosolized viruses, with a very low dose of 2 mJ/cm 2 of 222-nm light inactivating >95% of aerosolized H1N1 influenza virus. Continuous very low dose-rate far-UVC light in indoor public locations is a promising, safe and inexpensive tool to reduce the spread of airborne-mediated microbial diseases.

  3. 76 FR 31220 - Importation of Horses From Contagious Equine Metritis-Affected Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-31

    .... APHIS-2008-0112] RIN 0579-AD31 Importation of Horses From Contagious Equine Metritis-Affected Countries... regarding the importation of horses from countries affected with contagious equine metritis (CEM) by..., Equine Imports, National Center for Import and Export, VS, APHIS, 4700 River Road Unit 36, Riverdale, MD...

  4. 78 FR 9577 - Importation of Horses From Contagious Equine Metritis-Affected Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-11

    .... APHIS-2008-0112] RIN 0579-AD31 Importation of Horses From Contagious Equine Metritis-Affected Countries... of horses from countries affected with contagious equine metritis (CEM) by incorporating an... FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. Ellen Buck, Senior Staff Veterinarian, Equine Imports, National Center...

  5. 76 FR 52547 - Importation of Horses From Contagious Equine Metritis-Affected Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-23

    .... APHIS-2008-0112] RIN 0579-AD31 Importation of Horses From Contagious Equine Metritis-Affected Countries... with contagious equine metritis. We are also delaying the enforcement of all provisions of the interim... coming. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. Ellen Buck, Senior Staff Veterinarian, Equine Imports...

  6. 76 FR 16683 - Importation of Horses From Contagious Equine Metritis-Affected Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-25

    ...-0112] RIN 0579-AD31 Importation of Horses From Contagious Equine Metritis-Affected Countries AGENCY... contagious equine metritis (CEM) by incorporating an additional certification requirement for imported horses... . FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. Ellen Buck, Senior Staff Veterinarian, Equine Imports, National...

  7. Contagious architecture: computation, aesthetics, and space (technologies of lived abstraction)

    CERN Document Server

    Parisi, Luciana

    2013-01-01

    In Contagious Architecture, Luciana Parisi offers a philosophical inquiry into the status of the algorithm in architectural and interaction design. Her thesis is that algorithmic computation is not simply an abstract mathematical tool but constitutes a mode of thought in its own right, in that its operation extends into forms of abstraction that lie beyond direct human cognition and control. These include modes of infinity, contingency, and indeterminacy, as well as incomputable quantities underlying the iterative process of algorithmic processing. The main philosophical source for the project is Alfred North Whitehead, whose process philosophy is specifically designed to provide a vocabulary for "modes of thought" exhibiting various degrees of autonomy from human agency even as they are mobilized by it. Because algorithmic processing lies at the heart of the design practices now reshaping our world -- from the physical spaces of our built environment to the networked spaces of digital culture -- the nature o...

  8. Effects of human dynamics on epidemic spreading in Côte d'Ivoire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ruiqi; Wang, Wenxu; Di, Zengru

    2017-02-01

    Understanding and predicting outbreaks of contagious diseases are crucial to the development of society and public health, especially for underdeveloped countries. However, challenging problems are encountered because of complex epidemic spreading dynamics influenced by spatial structure and human dynamics (including both human mobility and human interaction intensity). We propose a systematical model to depict nationwide epidemic spreading in Côte d'Ivoire, which integrates multiple factors, such as human mobility, human interaction intensity, and demographic features. We provide insights to aid in modeling and predicting the epidemic spreading process by data-driven simulation and theoretical analysis, which is otherwise beyond the scope of local evaluation and geometrical views. We show that the requirement that the average local basic reproductive number to be greater than unity is not necessary for outbreaks of epidemics. The observed spreading phenomenon can be roughly explained as a heterogeneous diffusion-reaction process by redefining mobility distance according to the human mobility volume between nodes, which is beyond the geometrical viewpoint. However, the heterogeneity of human dynamics still poses challenges to precise prediction.

  9. Connecting human behavior and infectious disease spreading. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Wang et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2015-12-01

    Vaccination against measles is one of the great success stories of 20th century medicine. In the USA, before the introduction of the vaccine in 1963, three to four million adolescents were infected annually, around 500 died, around 5000 got serious complications (primarily encephalitis, swelling of the brain), and around 50,000 were hospitalized [7]. With the vaccine, measles virtually vanished and by 2000 it was declared extinct from the USA. This was, however, not the end of the story. There is still a small fraction of parents who do not let their children be vaccinated. The reasons vary-fear of side effects, an aversion of exposing children to something ;unnatural;, and a large number of other ideas. (For a non-academic account of the psychology of vaccination, we recommend Eula Biss's On Immunity[3].) The last few decades, anti-vaccination ideas have been spreading in social media and united people opposing vaccination into something of a movement [4]. In December 2014 there was a first larger outbreak (over 500 cases) of the century, centered around Disneyland (Anaheim, California) [10], and the anti-vaccination movement got much of the blame [4]. This example illustrates how ideas and opinions-that just like diseases are spreading over networks of people-can facilitate outbreaks. The reverse is, thankfully, more common-people, aware of an emerging outbreak, try to lower the chance of contagion by improving hygiene etc., which impedes the outbreak.

  10. Risk maps for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gert Jan Boender

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.

  11. A comparative assessment of the risks of introduction and spread of foot and mouth disease among different pig sectors in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Hernandez-Jover

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale pig producers are believed to pose higher biosecurity risks for the introduction and spread of exotic diseases than commercial pig producers. However, the magnitude of these risks are poorly understood. This study is a comparative assessment of the risk of introduction and spread of foot and mouth disease (FMD through different sectors of the pig industry: 1 large-scale pig producers; 2 small-scale producers (< 100 sows selling at saleyards and abattoirs; and, 3 small-scale producers selling through informal means. An exposure and consequence assessments were conducted assuming FMD virus was introduced into Australia through illegal importation of infected meat. A quantitative assessment, using scenario trees and Monte Carlo stochastic simulation, was used to calculate the probabilities of exposure and spread. Input data for these assessments were obtained from a series of data gathering exercises among pig producers, industry statistics and literature. Findings of this study suggest there is an Extremely low probability of exposure (8.69 × 10-6 to 3.81 × 10-5 for the three sectors of the pig industry, with exposure through direct swill feeding being 10 to 100 times more likely to occur than through contact with infected feral pigs.. Spread of FMD from the index farm is most likely to occur through movement of contaminated fomites, pigs and ruminants. The virus is more likely to spread from small-scale piggeries selling at saleyards and abattoirs than from other piggeries. The most influential factors on the spread of FMD from the index farm is the ability of the farmer to detect FMD, the probability of FMD spread through contaminated fomites and the presence of ruminants on the farm. Although small-scale producers selling informally move animals less frequently and do not use external staff, movement of pigs to non-commercial pathways could jeopardize animal traceability in the event of a disease outbreak. This study suggest that

  12. A rational approach to estimating the surgical demand elasticity needed to guide manpower reallocation during contagious outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Hsiao-Mei; Sun, Ying-Chou; Liou, Der-Ming

    2015-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases continue to pose serious threats to global public health. So far, however, few published study has addressed the need for manpower reallocation needed in hospitals when such a serious contagious outbreak occurs. To quantify the demand elasticity of the major surgery types in order to guide future manpower reallocation during contagious outbreaks. Based on a nationwide research database in Taiwan, we extracted the monthly volumes of major surgery types for the period 1998-2003, which covered the SARS period, in order to carry out a time series analysis. The demand elasticity of each surgery type was then estimated by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analysis. During the study period, the surgical volumes of most selected surgery types either increased or remained steady. We categorized these surgery types into low-, moderate- and high-elastic groups according to their demand elasticity. Appendectomy, 'open reduction of fracture with internal fixation' and 'free skin graft' were in the low demand elasticity group. Transurethral prostatectomy and extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (ESWL) were in the high demand elasticity group. The manpower of the departments carrying out the surgeries with low demand elasticity should be maintained during outbreaks. In contrast, departments in charge of surgeries mainly with high demand elasticity, like urology departments, may be in a position to have part of their staff reallocated. Taking advantage of the demand variation during the SARS period in 2003, we adopted the concept of demand elasticity and used a time series approach to figure out an effective index of demand elasticity for various types of surgery that could be used as a rational reference to carry out manpower reallocation during contagious outbreak situations.

  13. Mixed infection zones may be important in the epidemiology of contagious agalactia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jafarizadeh Amirreza

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The current study was designed to detect Mycoplasma agalactiae (Ma, Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. capri (Mmc, Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capricolum (Mcc and Mycoplasma putrefaciens (Mp in sheep and goats with clinical signs consistent with contagious agalactia.

  14. Ingroup-outgroup bias in contagious yawning by chimpanzees supports link to empathy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew W Campbell

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Humans favor others seen as similar to themselves (ingroup over people seen as different (outgroup, even without explicitly stated bias. Ingroup-outgroup bias extends to involuntary responses, such as empathy for pain. However, empathy biases have not been tested in our close primate relatives. Contagious yawning has been theoretically and empirically linked to empathy. If empathy underlies contagious yawning, we predict that subjects should show an ingroup-outgroup bias by yawning more in response to watching ingroup members yawn than outgroup. Twenty-three chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes from two separate groups watched videos of familiar and unfamiliar individuals yawning or at rest (control. The chimpanzees yawned more when watching the familiar yawns than the familiar control or the unfamiliar yawns, demonstrating an ingroup-outgroup bias in contagious yawning. These results provide further empirical support that contagious yawning is a measure of empathy, which may be useful for evolutionary biology and mental health.

  15. Bioeconomic modeling of lactational antimicrobial treatment of new bovine subclinical intramammary infections caused by contagious pathogens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borne, van den B.H.P.; Halasa, T.; Schaik, van G.; Hogeveen, H.; Nielen, M.

    2010-01-01

    This study determined the direct and indirect epidemiologic and economic effects of lactational treatment of new bovine subclinical intramammary infections (IMI) caused by contagious pathogens using an existing bioeconomic model. The dynamic and stochastic model simulated the dynamics of

  16. Re-assessing the likelihood of airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease at the start of the 1967-1968 UK foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gloster, J.; Freshwater, A.; Sellers, R.F.

    2005-01-01

    The likelihood of airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease at the start of the 1967-1968 epidemic is re-assessed in the light of current understanding of airborne disease spread. The findings strongly confirm those made at the time that airborne virus was the most likely cause of the rapid early...... development of the disease out to 60 km from the source. This conclusion is reached following a detailed epidemiological, meteorological and modelling study using original records and current modelling techniques. The role played by 'lee waves' as the mechanism for the spread is investigated. It is thought...... that they played little part in influencing the development of the epidemic. A number of lessons learned from the work are drawn, identifying the need for further research on the quantity and characteristics I of airborne virus. The results are also used to illustrate what advice would have been available...

  17. Population genetic structure of a common host predicts the spread of white-nose syndrome, an emerging infectious disease in bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilder, Aryn P; Kunz, Thomas H; Sorenson, Michael D

    2015-11-01

    Landscape complexity influences patterns of animal dispersal, which in turn may affect both gene flow and the spread of pathogens. White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an introduced fungal disease that has spread rapidly throughout eastern North America, causing massive mortality in bat populations. We tested for a relationship between the population genetic structure of the most common host, the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), and the geographic spread of WNS to date by evaluating logistic regression models of WNS risk among hibernating colonies in eastern North America. We hypothesized that risk of WNS to susceptible host colonies should increase with both geographic proximity and genetic similarity, reflecting historical connectivity, to infected colonies. Consistent with this hypothesis, inclusion of genetic distance between infected and susceptible colonies significantly improved models of disease spread, capturing heterogeneity in the spatial expansion of WNS despite low levels of genetic differentiation among eastern populations. Expanding our genetic analysis to the continental range of little brown myotis reveals strongly contrasting patterns of population structure between eastern and western North America. Genetic structure increases markedly moving westward into the northern Great Plains, beyond the current distribution of WNS. In western North America, genetic differentiation of geographically proximate populations often exceeds levels observed across the entire eastern region, suggesting infrequent and/or locally restricted dispersal, and thus relatively limited opportunities for pathogen introduction in western North America. Taken together, our analyses suggest a possibly slower future rate of spread of the WNS pathogen, at least as mediated by little brown myotis. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Spread of Canine Flu

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2018-04-05

    Dr. Colin Parrish, a Professor of Virology at the College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, discusses the spread of influenza among dogs.  Created: 4/5/2018 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 4/5/2018.

  19. Detection of viruses and the spatial and temporal spread patterns of viral diseases of cucurbits (Cucurbitaceae spp.) in the coastal savannah zone of Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gyamena, A. E

    2013-07-01

    Cucurbits are susceptible to over 35 plant viruses; each of these viruses is capable of causing total crop failure in a poorly managed virus pathosystem. The objectives of this study were to detect the viruses that infect six cucurbit species in the coastal savannah zone of Ghana and to describe the spatial and temporal spread patterns of virus epidemics in zucchini squash (Cucurbita pepo L.) by the use of mathematical and geostatistical models. Cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.), watermelon (Citrullus lanatus Thunb.), zucchini squash (Cucurbita pepo L.), butternut squash (Cucurbita moschata Duchesne), egushi (Citrullus colocynthis L. Schrad.) and melon (Cucumis melo L.) were grown on an experimental field in the coastal savannah zone of Ghana and were monitored for the expression of virus and virus-like symptoms. The observed symptoms were further confirmed by Double Antibody Sandwich Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (DAS ELISA) and mechanical inoculation of indicator plants. The temporal spread patterns of virus disease in zucchini squash were analyzed by exponential logistic, monomolecular and gompertz mechanistic models. The spatial patterns of virus disease spread in zucchini squash field were analyzed by semivariograms and inverse distance weighing (IDW) methods. Cucumber, zucchini squash, melon and butternut squash were infected by both Cucumber mosaic virus (CMW) and Papaya ringspot virus (PRSV-W). Egushi was infected by CMW but not PRSV-W. None of the six cucurbit species were infected by Watermelon mosaic virus (WMV) or Zucchini yellow mosaic virus (ZYMV). The temporal pattern of disease incidence in the zucchini squash field followed the gompertz function with an average apparent infection rate of 0.026 per day. The temporal pattern of disease severity was best described by the exponential model with coefficient of determination of 94.38 % and rate of progress disease severity of 0.114 per day. As at 49 days after planting (DAP), disease incidence and

  20. Ebola Virus Disease 2013-2014 Outbreak in West Africa: An Analysis of the Epidemic Spread and Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlando Cenciarelli

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Ebola virus epidemic burst in West Africa in late 2013, started in Guinea, reached in a few months an alarming diffusion, actually involving several countries (Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal, and Mali. Guinea and Liberia, the first nations affected by the outbreak, have put in place measures to contain the spread, supported by international organizations; then they were followed by the other nations affected. In the present EVD outbreak, the geographical spread of the virus has followed a new route: the achievement of large urban areas at an early stage of the epidemic has led to an unprecedented diffusion, featuring the largest outbreak of EVD of all time. This has caused significant concerns all over the world: the potential reaching of far countries from endemic areas, mainly through fast transports, induced several countries to issue information documents and health supervision for individuals going to or coming from the areas at risk. In this paper the geographical spread of the epidemic was analyzed, assessing the sequential appearance of cases by geographic area, considering the increase in cases and mortality according to affected nations. The measures implemented by each government and international organizations to contain the outbreak, and their effectiveness, were also evaluated.

  1. A Touching and Contagious Captain Cook: Thinking History through Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Muecke

    2011-04-01

    What, then, is Cook when he is displaced from ‘western’ history and spread around cultures like a virus? How precarious or robust, then, are the historical certainties associated with Cook-monumentalised Kurnell and its place in time as ‘the birthplace of modern Australia’?

  2. Assessing the potential spread and maintenance of foot-and-mouth disease virus infection in wild ungulates: general principles and application to a specific scenario in Thrace

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhollander, S.; Belsham, Graham; Lange, M.

    2016-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), due to infection with serotype O virus, occurred in wild boar and within eleven outbreaks in domestic livestock in the south-east of Bulgaria, Thrace region, in 2011. Hence, the issue of the potential for the spread and maintenance of FMD virus (FMDV) infection...... in a population of wild ungulates became important. This assessment focused on the spread and maintenance of FMDV infection within a hypothetical wild boar and deer population in an environment, which is characterized by a climate transitional between Mediterranean and continental and variable wildlife population...... densities. The assessment was based on three aspects: (i) a systematic review of the literature focusing on experimental infection studies to identify the parameters describing the duration of FMDV infection in deer and wild boar, as well as observational studies assessing the occurrence of FMDV infection...

  3. A hybrid modelling approach to simulating foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Australian livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard A Bradhurst

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is a highly contagious and economically important viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. Australia's freedom from FMD underpins a valuable trade in live animals and animal products. An outbreak of FMD would result in the loss of export markets and cause severe disruption to domestic markets. The prevention of, and contingency planning for, FMD are of key importance to government, industry, producers and the community. The spread and control of FMD is complex and dynamic due to a highly contagious multi-host pathogen operating in a heterogeneous environment across multiple jurisdictions. Epidemiological modelling is increasingly being recognized as a valuable tool for investigating the spread of disease under different conditions and the effectiveness of control strategies. Models of infectious disease can be broadly classified as: population-based models that are formulated from the top-down and employ population-level relationships to describe individual-level behaviour, individual-based models that are formulated from the bottom-up and aggregate individual-level behaviour to reveal population-level relationships, or hybrid models which combine the two approaches into a single model.The Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS hybrid model employs a deterministic equation-based model (EBM to model within-herd spread of FMD, and a stochastic, spatially-explicit agent-based model (ABM to model between-herd spread and control. The EBM provides concise and computationally efficient predictions of herd prevalence and clinical signs over time. The ABM captures the complex, stochastic and heterogeneous environment in which an FMD epidemic operates. The AADIS event-driven hybrid EBM/ABM architecture is a flexible, efficient and extensible framework for modelling the spread and control of disease in livestock on a national scale. We present an overview of the AADIS hybrid approach and a description of the model

  4. Assessing the potential spread and maintenance of foot-and-mouth disease virus infection in wild ungulates: general principles and application to a specific scenario in Thrace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhollander, S; Belsham, G J; Lange, M; Willgert, K; Alexandrov, T; Chondrokouki, E; Depner, K; Khomenko, S; Özyörük, F; Salman, M; Thulke, H H; Bøtner, A

    2016-04-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), due to infection with serotype O virus, occurred in wild boar and within eleven outbreaks in domestic livestock in the south-east of Bulgaria, Thrace region, in 2011. Hence, the issue of the potential for the spread and maintenance of FMD virus (FMDV) infection in a population of wild ungulates became important. This assessment focused on the spread and maintenance of FMDV infection within a hypothetical wild boar and deer population in an environment, which is characterized by a climate transitional between Mediterranean and continental and variable wildlife population densities. The assessment was based on three aspects: (i) a systematic review of the literature focusing on experimental infection studies to identify the parameters describing the duration of FMDV infection in deer and wild boar, as well as observational studies assessing the occurrence of FMDV infection in wild deer and wild boar populations, (ii) prevalence survey data of wild boar and deer in Bulgaria and Turkey and (iii) an epidemiological model, simulating the host-to-host spread of FMDV infections. It is concluded, based on all three aspects, that the wildlife population in Thrace, and so wildlife populations in similar ecological settings, are probably not able to maintain FMD in the long term in the absence of FMDV infection in the domestic host population. However, limited spread of FMDV infection in time and space in the wildlife populations can occur. If there is a continued cross-over of FMDV between domestic and wildlife populations or a higher population density, virus circulation may be prolonged. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  5. Analysis of the Spatial Organization of Pastures as a Contact Network, Implications for Potential Disease Spread and Biosecurity in Livestock, France, 2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurore Palisson

    Full Text Available The use of pastures is part of common herd management practices for livestock animals, but contagion between animals located on neighbouring pastures is one of the major modes of infectious disease transmission between herds. At the population level, this transmission is strongly constrained by the spatial organization of pastures. The aim of this study was to answer two questions: (i is the spatial configuration of pastures favourable to the spread of infectious diseases in France? (ii would biosecurity measures allow decreasing this vulnerability? Based on GIS data, the spatial organization of pastures was represented using networks. Nodes were the 3,159,787 pastures reported in 2010 by the French breeders to claim the Common Agricultural Policy subsidies. Links connected pastures when the distance between them was below a predefined threshold. Premises networks were obtained by aggregating into a single node all the pastures under the same ownership. Although the pastures network was very fragmented when the distance threshold was short (1.5 meters, relevant for a directly-transmitted disease, it was not the case when the distance threshold was larger (500 m, relevant for a vector-borne disease: 97% of the nodes in the largest connected component. The premises network was highly connected as the largest connected component always included more than 83% of the nodes, whatever the distance threshold. Percolation analyses were performed to model the population-level efficacy of biosecurity measures. Percolation thresholds varied according to the modelled biosecurity measures and to the distance threshold. They were globally high (e.g. >17% of nodes had to be removed, mimicking the confinement of animals inside farm buildings, to obtain the disappearance of the large connected component. The network of pastures thus appeared vulnerable to the spread of diseases in France. Only a large acceptance of biosecurity measures by breeders would allow

  6. Fleas, hosts and habitat: What can we predict about the spread of vector-borne zoonotic diseases?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megan M. Friggens

    2010-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases of humans and wildlife are experiencing resurgence across the globe. I examine the dynamics of flea borne diseases through a comparative analysis of flea literature and analyses of field data collected from three sites in New Mexico: The Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, the Sandia Mountains and the Valles Caldera National Preserve (VCNP). My...

  7. Static network analysis of a pork supply chain in Northern Germany-Characterisation of the potential spread of infectious diseases via animal movements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büttner, Kathrin; Krieter, Joachim; Traulsen, Arne; Traulsen, Imke

    2013-07-01

    Transport of live animals is a major risk factor in the spread of infectious diseases between holdings. The present study analysed the pork supply chain of a producer community in Northern Germany. The structure of trade networks can be characterised by carrying out a network analysis. To identify holdings with a central position in this directed network of pig production, several parameters describing these properties were measured (in-degree, out-degree, ingoing and outgoing infection chain, betweenness centrality and ingoing and outgoing closeness centrality). To obtain the importance of the different holding types (multiplier, farrowing farms, finishing farms and farrow-to-finishing farms) within the pyramidal structure of the pork supply chain, centrality parameters were calculated for the entire network as well as for the individual holding types. Using these centrality parameters, two types of holdings could be identified. In the network studied, finishing and farrow-to-finishing farms were more likely to be infected due to the high number of ingoing trade contacts. Due to the high number of outgoing trade contacts multipliers and farrowing farms had an increased risk to spread a disease to other holdings. However, the results of the centrality parameters degree and infection chain were not always consistent, such that the indirect trade contacts should be taken into consideration to understand the real importance of a holding in spreading or contracting an infection. Furthermore, all calculated parameters showed a highly right-skewed distribution. Networks with such a degree distribution are considered to be highly resistant concerning the random removal of nodes. But by strategic removal of the most central holdings, e.g. by trade restrictions or selective vaccination or culling, the network structure can be changed efficiently and thus decompose into fragments. Such a fragmentation of the trade networks is of particular importance from an epidemiological

  8. Evaluating the utility of companion animal tick surveillance practices for monitoring spread and occurrence of human Lyme disease in West Virginia, 2014-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendricks, Brian; Mark-Carew, Miguella; Conley, Jamison

    2017-11-13

    Domestic dogs and cats are potentially effective sentinel populations for monitoring occurrence and spread of Lyme disease. Few studies have evaluated the public health utility of sentinel programmes using geo-analytic approaches. Confirmed Lyme disease cases diagnosed by physicians and ticks submitted by veterinarians to the West Virginia State Health Department were obtained for 2014-2016. Ticks were identified to species, and only Ixodes scapularis were incorporated in the analysis. Separate ordinary least squares (OLS) and spatial lag regression models were conducted to estimate the association between average numbers of Ix. scapularis collected on pets and human Lyme disease incidence. Regression residuals were visualised using Local Moran's I as a diagnostic tool to identify spatial dependence. Statistically significant associations were identified between average numbers of Ix. scapularis collected from dogs and human Lyme disease in the OLS (β=20.7, PLyme disease. Findings reinforce the utility of spatial analysis of surveillance data, and highlight West Virginia's unique position within the eastern United States in regards to Lyme disease occurrence.

  9. Climate change and the spread of vector-borne diseases: using approximate Bayesian computation to compare invasion scenarios for the bluetongue virus vector Culicoides imicola in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardulyn, Patrick; Goffredo, Maria; Conte, Annamaria; Hendrickx, Guy; Meiswinkel, Rudolf; Balenghien, Thomas; Sghaier, Soufien; Lohr, Youssef; Gilbert, Marius

    2013-05-01

    Bluetongue (BT) is a commonly cited example of a disease with a distribution believed to have recently expanded in response to global warming. The BT virus is transmitted to ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides, and it has been hypothesized that the emergence of BT in Mediterranean Europe during the last two decades is a consequence of the recent colonization of the region by Culicoides imicola and linked to climate change. To better understand the mechanism responsible for the northward spread of BT, we tested the hypothesis of a recent colonization of Italy by C. imicola, by obtaining samples from more than 60 localities across Italy, Corsica, Southern France, and Northern Africa (the hypothesized source point for the recent invasion of C. imicola), and by genotyping them with 10 newly identified microsatellite loci. The patterns of genetic variation within and among the sampled populations were characterized and used in a rigorous approximate Bayesian computation framework to compare three competing historical hypotheses related to the arrival and establishment of C. imicola in Italy. The hypothesis of an ancient presence of the insect vector was strongly favoured by this analysis, with an associated P ≥ 99%, suggesting that causes other than the northward range expansion of C. imicola may have supported the emergence of BT in southern Europe. Overall, this study illustrates the potential of molecular genetic markers for exploring the assumed link between climate change and the spread of diseases. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. VNTR analysis reveals unexpected genetic diversity within Mycoplasma agalactiae, the main causative agent of contagious agalactia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayling Roger D

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mycoplasma agalactiae is the main cause of contagious agalactia, a serious disease of sheep and goats, which has major clinical and economic impacts. Previous studies of M. agalactiae have shown it to be unusually homogeneous and there are currently no available epidemiological techniques which enable a high degree of strain differentiation. Results We have developed variable number tandem repeat (VNTR analysis using the sequenced genome of the M. agalactiae type strain PG2. The PG2 genome was found to be replete with tandem repeat sequences and 4 were chosen for further analysis. VNTR 5 was located within the hypothetical protein MAG6170 a predicted lipoprotein. VNTR 14 was intergenic between the hypothetical protein MAG3350 and the hypothetical protein MAG3340. VNTR 17 was intergenic between the hypothetical protein MAG4060 and the hypothetical protein MAG4070 and VNTR 19 spanned the 5' end of the pseudogene for a lipoprotein MAG4310 and the 3' end of the hypothetical lipoprotein MAG4320. We have investigated the genetic diversity of 88 M. agalactiae isolates of wide geographic origin using VNTR analysis and compared it with pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD analysis. Simpson's index of diversity was calculated to be 0.324 for PFGE and 0.574 for VNTR analysis. VNTR analysis revealed unexpected diversity within M. agalactiae with 9 different VNTR types discovered. Some correlation was found between geographical origin and the VNTR type of the isolates. Conclusion VNTR analysis represents a useful, rapid first-line test for use in molecular epidemiological analysis of M. agalactiae for outbreak tracing and control.

  11. Male yawning is more contagious than female yawning among chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg J M Massen

    Full Text Available Yawn contagion is not restricted to humans and has also been reported for several non-human animal species, including chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes. Contagious yawning may lead to synchronisation of behaviour. However, the function of contagious yawning is relatively understudied. In this study, we investigated the function of contagious yawning by focusing on two types of signal providers: close social associates and leaders. We provided a captive chimpanzee colony with videos of all individuals of their own group that were either yawning, or at rest. Consistent with other studies, we demonstrated that yawning is contagious for chimpanzees, yet we did not find any effect of relationship quality on yawn contagion. However, we show that yawn contagion is significantly higher when the video model is a yawning male than when the video model was a yawning female, and that this effect is most apparent among males. As males are dominant in chimpanzee societies, male signals may be more relevant to the rest of the group than female signals. Moreover, since chimpanzees form male-bonded societies, male signals are especially relevant for other males. Therefore, we suggest that the sex-differences of yawning contagion among chimpanzees reflect the function of yawning in the synchronisation of behaviour.

  12. No evidence of contagious yawning in the red-footed tortoise Geochelone carbonaria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilkinson, A.; Sebanz, N.; Mandl, I.; Huber, L.

    2011-01-01

    Three hypotheses have attempted to explain the phenomenon of contagious yawning. It has been hypothesized that it is a fixed action pattern for which the releasing stimulus is the observation of another yawn, that it is the result of non-conscious mimicry emerging through close links between

  13. Catch It If You Can: How Contagious Motivation Improves Group Projects and Course Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishen, Anjala S.

    2013-01-01

    This article proposes a theory-based contagious motivation model focusing on enhancing student perceptions of group projects and ultimately course satisfaction. Moreover, drawing from both pedagogical and organizational behavior literatures, a model is presented that ties together intrinsic motivation theory with social contagion and…

  14. Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunxiang Cao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases.

  15. Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Chunxiang; Chen, Wei; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

    2016-01-01

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases.

  16. Recent spread of a new strain (A-Iran-05) of foot-and-mouth disease virus type A in the Middle East.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, N J; Nazem Shirazi, M H; Wadsworth, J; Swabey, K G; Stirling, J M; Statham, R J; Li, Y; Hutchings, G H; Ferris, N P; Parlak, U; Ozyörük, F; Sumption, K J; King, D P; Paton, D J

    2009-06-01

    This report describes the characterization of a new genotype of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) type A responsible for recent FMD outbreaks in the Middle East. Initially identified in samples collected in 2003 from Iran, during 2005 and 2006 this FMDV lineage (proposed to be named A-Iran-05) spread into Saudi Arabia and Jordan and then further west into Turkey reaching European Thrace in January 2007. Most recently A-Iran-05 has been found in Bahrain. To the east of Iran, it has been recognized in Afghanistan (2004-07) and Pakistan (2006-07). Throughout the region, this lineage is now the predominant genotype of FMDV serotype A sampled, and has appeared to have replaced the A-Iran-96 and A-Iran-99 strains which were previously encountered. In August 2007, a new A-Iran-05 sub-lineage (which we have called A-Iran-05(ARD-07)) was identified in Ardahan, Turkey, close to the border with Georgia. This new sub-lineage appeared to predominate in Turkey in 2008, but has, so far, not been identified in any other country. Vaccine matching tests revealed that the A-Iran-05 viruses are antigenically different to A-Iran-96 and more like A(22). These findings emphasize the importance of undertaking continued surveillance in the Middle East and Central Asia in order to detect and monitor the emergence and spread of new FMDV strains.

  17. [International legal aspects of responsibility of states and international organizations for the spread of epidemics, pandemics and mass disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kholikov, I V; Sazonova, K L

    2015-08-01

    The present article deals with international legal issues that arise in case when various mass diseases go beyond any national jurisdiction. The emphasis is made on the problem of international responsibility, which different actors have to bear in such cases. The authors also examine the implementation of responsibility mechanism, including the indentication of the relevant international court, authorized to establish such liability and identify the specific forms of its realization.

  18. Evaluating the utility of companion animal tick surveillance practices for monitoring spread and occurrence of human Lyme disease in West Virginia, 2014-2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Hendricks

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Domestic dogs and cats are potentially effective sentinel populations for monitoring occurrence and spread of Lyme disease. Few studies have evaluated the public health utility of sentinel programmes using geo-analytic approaches. Confirmed Lyme disease cases diagnosed by physicians and ticks submitted by veterinarians to the West Virginia State Health Department were obtained for 2014-2016. Ticks were identified to species, and only Ixodes scapularis were incorporated in the analysis. Separate ordinary least squares (OLS and spatial lag regression models were conducted to estimate the association between average numbers of Ix. scapularis collected on pets and human Lyme disease incidence. Regression residuals were visualised using Local Moran’s I as a diagnostic tool to identify spatial dependence. Statistically significant associations were identified between average numbers of Ix. scapularis collected from dogs and human Lyme disease in the OLS (β=20.7, P<0.001 and spatial lag (β=12.0, P=0.002 regression. No significant associations were identified for cats in either regression model. Statistically significant (P≤0.05 spatial dependence was identified in all regression models. Local Moran’s I maps produced for spatial lag regression residuals indicated a decrease in model over- and under-estimation, but identified a higher number of statistically significant outliers than OLS regression. Results support previous conclusions that dogs are effective sentinel populations for monitoring risk of human exposure to Lyme disease. Findings reinforce the utility of spatial analysis of surveillance data, and highlight West Virginia’s unique position within the eastern United States in regards to Lyme disease occurrence.

  19. A decade of colonization: the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito in Pennsylvania and implications for disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taber, Eric D; Hutchinson, Michael L; Smithwick, Erica A H; Blanford, Justine I

    2017-06-01

    In recent decades, the Asian tiger mosquito expanded its geographic range throughout the northeastern United States, including Pennsylvania. The establishment of Aedes albopictus in novel areas raises significant public health concerns, since this species is a highly competent vector of several arboviruses, including chikungunya, West Nile, and dengue. In this study, we used geographic information systems (GIS) to examine a decade of colonization by Ae. albopictus throughout Pennsylvania between 2001 and 2010. We examined the spatial and temporal distribution of Ae. albopictus using spatial statistical analysis and examined the risk of dengue virus transmission using a model that captures the probability of transmission. Our findings show that since 2001, the Ae. albopictus population in Pennsylvania has increased, becoming established and expanding in range throughout much of the state. Since 2010, imported cases of dengue fever have been recorded in Pennsylvania. Imported cases of dengue, in combination with summer temperatures conducive for virus transmission, raise the risk of local disease transmission. © 2017 The Society for Vector Ecology.

  20. Animal Ownership and Touching Enrich the Context of Social Contacts Relevant to the Spread of Human Infectious Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kifle, Yimer Wasihun; Goeyvaerts, Nele; Van Kerckhove, Kim; Willem, Lander; Kucharski, Adam; Faes, Christel; Leirs, Herwig; Hens, Niel; Beutels, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Many human infectious diseases originate from animals or are transmitted through animal vectors. We aimed to identify factors that are predictive of ownership and touching of animals, assess whether animal ownership influences social contact behavior, and estimate the probability of a major zoonotic outbreak should a transmissible influenza-like pathogen be present in animals, all in the setting of a densely populated European country. A diary-based social contact survey (n = 1768) was conducted in Flanders, Belgium, from September 2010 until February 2011. Many participants touched pets (46%), poultry (2%) or livestock (2%) on a randomly assigned day, and a large proportion of participants owned such animals (51%, 15% and 5%, respectively). Logistic regression models indicated that larger households are more likely to own an animal and, unsurprisingly, that animal owners are more likely to touch animals. We observed a significant effect of age on animal ownership and touching. The total number of social contacts during a randomly assigned day was modeled using weighted-negative binomial regression. Apart from age, household size and day type (weekend versus weekday and regular versus holiday period), animal ownership was positively associated with the total number of social contacts during the weekend. Assuming that animal ownership and/or touching are at-risk events, we demonstrate a method to estimate the outbreak potential of zoonoses. We show that in Belgium animal-human interactions involving young children (0-9 years) and adults (25-54 years) have the highest potential to cause a major zoonotic outbreak.

  1. Origin and spread of the 1278insTATC mutation causing Tay-Sachs disease in Ashkenazi Jews: genetic drift as a robust and parsimonious hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frisch, Amos; Colombo, Roberto; Michaelovsky, Elena; Karpati, Mazal; Goldman, Boleslaw; Peleg, Leah

    2004-03-01

    The 1278insTATC is the most prevalent beta-hexosaminidase A ( HEXA) gene mutation causing Tay-Sachs disease (TSD), one of the four lysosomal storage diseases (LSDs) occurring at elevated frequencies among Ashkenazi Jews (AJs). To investigate the genetic history of this mutation in the AJ population, a conserved haplotype (D15S981:175-D15S131:240-D15S1050:284-D15S197:144-D15S188:418) was identified in 1278insTATC chromosomes from 55 unrelated AJ individuals (15 homozygotes and 40 heterozygotes for the TSD mutation), suggesting the occurrence of a common founder. When two methods were used for analysis of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between flanking polymorphic markers and the disease locus and for the study of the decay of LD over time, the estimated age of the insertion was found to be 40+/-12 generations (95% confidence interval: 30-50 generations), so that the most recent common ancestor of the mutation-bearing chromosomes would date to the 8th-9th century. This corresponds with the demographic expansion of AJs in central Europe, following the founding of the Ashkenaz settlement in the early Middle Ages. The results are consistent with the geographic distribution of the main TSD mutation, 1278insTATC being more common in central Europe, and with the coalescent times of mutations causing two other LSDs, Gaucher disease and mucolipidosis type IV. Evidence for the absence of a determinant positive selection (heterozygote advantage) over the mutation is provided by a comparison between the estimated age of 1278insTATC and the probability of the current AJ frequency of the mutant allele as a function of its age, calculated by use of a branching-process model. Therefore, the founder effect in a rapidly expanding population arising from a bottleneck provides a robust parsimonious hypothesis explaining the spread of 1278insTATC-linked TSD in AJ individuals.

  2. Patterns of spread and persistence of foot-and-mouth disease types A, O and Asia-1 in Turkey: a meta-population approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, M; Aktas, S; Mohammed, H; Roeder, P; Sumption, K; Tufan, M; Slingenbergh, J

    2005-06-01

    Despite significant control efforts, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) persists in Turkey, and new strains of serotypes A, O and Asia-1 are periodically reported to enter the country from the east. The status of FMD in Turkey is important regionally because the country forms a natural bridge between Asia where the disease is endemic, and Europe which has disease-free status. This study analysed spatial and temporal patterns of FMD occurrence in Turkey to explore factors associated with the disease's persistence and spread. Annual records of FMD distribution in Turkish provinces throughout 1990-2002, grouped by serotype (O, A and Asia 1), were analysed using geostatistical techniques to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. A meta-population model was used to test how disease status, expressed in terms of presence/absence, extinction, and colonization, and measured at the province level throughout the periods 1990-1996 and 1997 2002, could be predicted using province-level data on: ruminant livestock numbers; meat production-demand discrepancy (as a surrogate measure of animal and animal products marketing, i.e. long-distance contagion through the traffic of mainly live animals to urban centres); and the disease prevalence distribution as recorded for the previous year. A drastic overall reduction in FMD occurrence was observed from the period 1990-1996 to 1997-2002 when the disease was shown to retract into persistence islands. FMD occurrence was associated with host abundance, short distance contagion from adjacent provinces, and meat production-demand discrepancies. With FMD retracting into identified provinces, a shift in predictors of FMD occurrence was observed with a lower contribution of short-distance contagion, and a relatively higher association with meat production-demand discrepancies leading to live animal transport over long distances, and hence presenting opportunities for identifying critical-control points. The pattern of persistence differed

  3. Diagnosis of contagious ecthyma in goats in a quarantine station in Panama

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angie Magaña Ch.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We report an outbreak of contagious ecthyma (CE in a herd of goats at Paso Canoas quarantine station, Panama. The goats were adult intact females. Visible clinical signs became apparent from day 13 after the start of quarantine. We performed clinical examination. Serum biopsy and scabs were collected from crusted lesions in the epithelium of the lips, nose and eyelid corners. Samples were studied by histopathology,complement fixation test, transmission electron microscopy (TEM, DAS-ELISA, viral isolationand nucleic acid amplification tests. Histopathology revealed ortho and parakeratotic hyperkeratosis, epithelial hyperplasia, viral inclusion bodies, keratinocytes with balonoid degeneration, vesicles with neutrophils and degenerated cells, in superficial dermis there is marked neovascularization. Complement fixation test, DAS-ELISA and nucleic acid amplification tests resulted positive for contagious ecthyma. TEM showed viral particles, consistent with Parapoxvirus. Clinical and laboratory findings were consistent with poxvirus infection in the quarantine goat herd.

  4. Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.; Champion, H. J.; Donaldson, A. I.; Dunkerley, F. N.; Gloster, J.; Sørensen, J. H.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.

    2003-11-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess the potential for atmospheric dispersion of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is primarily to identify premises which may have been exposed so that the human resources for surveillance and disease control purposes are employed most effectively. The paper describes the combined modelling techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate paper (Gloster et al., 2002) provides a more detailed analysis of the airborne disease transmission in the vicinity of Burnside Farm. The combined results are consistent with airborne transmission of disease to livestock in the Heddon-on-the-Wall area. Local topography may have played a significant role in influencing the pattern of disease spread.

  5. Development of a Discrete Spatial-Temporal SEIR Simulator for Modeling Infectious Diseases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKenna, S.A.

    2000-11-01

    Multiple techniques have been developed to model the temporal evolution of infectious diseases. Some of these techniques have also been adapted to model the spatial evolution of the disease. This report examines the application of one such technique, the SEIR model, to the spatial and temporal evolution of disease. Applications of the SEIR model are reviewed briefly and an adaptation to the traditional SEIR model is presented. This adaptation allows for modeling the spatial evolution of the disease stages at the individual level. The transmission of the disease between individuals is modeled explicitly through the use of exposure likelihood functions rather than the global transmission rate applied to populations in the traditional implementation of the SEIR model. These adaptations allow for the consideration of spatially variable (heterogeneous) susceptibility and immunity within the population. The adaptations also allow for modeling both contagious and non-contagious diseases. The results of a number of numerical experiments to explore the effect of model parameters on the spread of an example disease are presented.

  6. Characterization of contact structures for the spread of infectious diseases in a pork supply chain in northern Germany by dynamic network analysis of yearly and monthly networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büttner, K; Krieter, J; Traulsen, I

    2015-04-01

    A major risk factor in the spread of diseases between holdings is the transport of live animals. This study analysed the animal movements of the pork supply chain of a producer group in Northern Germany. The parameters in-degree and out-degree, ingoing and outgoing infection chain, betweenness and ingoing and outgoing closeness were measured using dynamic network analysis to identify holdings with central positions in the network and to characterize the overall network topology. The potential maximum epidemic size was also estimated. All parameters were calculated for three time periods: the 3-yearly network, the yearly and the monthly networks. The yearly and the monthly networks were more fragmented than the 3-yearly network. On average, one-third of the holdings were isolated in the yearly networks and almost three quarters in the monthly networks. This represented an immense reduction in the number of holdings participating in the trade of the monthly networks. The overall network topology showed right-skewed distributions for all calculated centrality parameters indicating that network resilience was high concerning the random removal of holdings. However, for a targeted removal of holdings according to their centrality, a rapid fragmentation of the trade network could be expected. Furthermore, to capture the real importance of holdings for disease transmission, indirect trade contacts (infection chain) should be considered. In contrast to the parameters regarding direct trade contacts (degree), the infection chain parameter did not underestimate the potential risk of disease transmission. This became more obvious, the longer the observed time period was. For all three time periods, the results for the estimation of the potential maximum epidemic size illustrated that the outgoing infection chain should be chosen. It considers the chronological order and the directed nature of the contacts and has no restrictions such as the strongly connected components of a

  7. BRCA1 loss pre-existing in small subpopulations of prostate cancer is associated with advanced disease and metastatic spread to lymph nodes and peripheral blood

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bednarz, Natalia; Eltze, Elke; Semjonow, Axel; Rink, Michael; Andreas, Antje; Mulder, Lennart; Hannemann, Juliane; Fisch, Margit; Pantel, Klaus; Weier, Heinz-Ulrich G.; Bielawski, Krzysztof P.; Brandt, Burkhard

    2010-03-19

    A recent study concluded that serum prostate specific antigen (PSA)-based screening is beneficial for reducing the lethality of PCa, but was also associated with a high risk of 'overdiagnosis'. Nevertheless, also PCa patients who suffered from organ confined tumors and had negative bone scans succumb to distant metastases after complete tumor resection. It is reasonable to assume that those tumors spread to other organs long before the overt manifestation of metastases. Our current results confirm that prostate tumors are highly heterogeneous. Even a small subpopulation of cells bearing BRCA1 losses can initiate PCa cell regional and distant dissemination indicating those patients which might be at high risk of metastasis. A preliminary study performed on a small cohort of multifocal prostate cancer (PCa) detected BRCA1 allelic imbalances (AI) among circulating tumor cells (CTCs). The present analysis was aimed to elucidate the biological and clinical role of BRCA1 losses on metastatic spread and tumor progression in prostate cancer patients. Experimental Design: To map molecular progression in PCa outgrowth we used FISH analysis of tissue microarrays (TMA), lymph node sections and CTC from peripheral blood. We found that 14% of 133 tested patients carried monoallelic BRCA1 loss in at least one tumor focus. Extended molecular analysis of chr17q revealed that this aberration was often a part of larger cytogenetic rearrangement involving chr17q21 accompanied by AI of the tumor suppressor gene PTEN and lack of the BRCA1 promoter methylation. The BRCA1 losses correlated with advanced T stage (p < 0.05), invasion to pelvic lymph nodes (LN, p < 0.05) as well as BR (p < 0.01). Their prevalence was twice as high within 62 LN metastases (LNMs) as in primary tumors (27%, p < 0.01). The analysis of 11 matched primary PCa-LNM pairs confirmed the suspected transmission of genetic abnormalities between those two sites. In 4 of 7 patients with metastatic disease, BRCA1

  8. Homosexuality and Pro-Gay Ideology as Pathogens? Implications of a Disease-Spread Lay Model for Understanding Anti-Gay Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filip-Crawford, Gabrielle; Neuberg, Steven L

    2015-09-03

    Negative behaviors targeting gay men and lesbians range from violent physical assault to casting a vote against gay marriage, with very different implications for those targeted. Existing accounts of such actions, however, are unable to differentially predict specific anti-gay behaviors, leaving a large theoretical hole in the literature and hindering the design of effective interventions. We propose (a) that many sexually prejudiced laypersons conceptualize homosexuality and pro-gay ideology as "contaminants" analogous to infectious pathogens and (b) that anti-gay behaviors can thus be viewed as strategic attempts to prevent, contain, treat, or eradicate the "pathogens" of homosexuality and pro-gay ideology. By considering analogues to disease-spread processes (e.g., susceptibility of specific subpopulations, inoculation procedures, prevalence in the local environment, interconnections among community members), we derive novel predictions regarding the incidence and nature of anti-gay behaviors and provide leverage for creating more tailored interventions to reduce such discrimination. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  9. Genetic structure of winter populations of the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) prior to the white nose syndrome epidemic: implications for the risk of disease spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maarten J. Vonhof; Sybill K. Amelon; Robert R. Currie; Gary F. McCracken

    2016-01-01

    The spread of white nose syndrome raises serious concerns about the long-term viability of affected bat species. Here we examine the geographic distribution of genetic variation, levels of population connectivity that may influence the spatial spread of WNS, and the likelihood that recent population declines in regions affected by WNS have led to the loss of unique...

  10. Evaluation of strategies for the eradication of Pseudorabies virus (Aujeszky's disease) in commercial swine farms in Chiang-Mai and Lampoon Provinces, Thailand, using a simulation disease spread model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketusing, N; Reeves, A; Portacci, K; Yano, T; Olea-Popelka, F; Keefe, T; Salman, M

    2014-04-01

    Several strategies for eradicating Pseudorabies virus (Aujeszky's disease) in Chiang-Mai and Lampoon Provinces, Thailand, were compared using a computer simulation model, the North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). The duration of the outbreak, the number of affected herds and the number of destroyed herds were compared during these simulated outbreaks. Depopulation, zoning for restricted movement and improved detection and vaccination strategies were assessed. The most effective strategies to eradicate Pseudorabies as per the findings from this study are applying depopulation strategies with MOVEMENT RESTRICTIONS in 3-, 8- and 16-km ZONES surrounding infected herds and enhancing the eradication with vaccination campaign on 16-km radius surrounding infected herds. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  11. Migratory birds and spread of West Nile virus in the Western Hemisphere

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rappole, J. H.; Derrickson, S. R.; Hubálek, Zdeněk

    2000-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 4 (2000), s. 319-328 ISSN 1080-6040 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6093917 Subject RIV: FN - Epidemiology, Contagious Diseases ; Clinical Immunology Impact factor: 4.907, year: 2000 http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol6no4/rappole.htm

  12. How Is Mono Spread?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... How Is Mono Spread? Print My sister has mononucleosis. I drank out of her drink before we ... that I have mono now? – Kyle* Mono, or mononucleosis, is spread through direct contact with saliva. This ...

  13. Coupling effects on turning points of infectious diseases epidemics in scale-free networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kiseong; Lee, Sangyeon; Lee, Doheon; Lee, Kwang Hyung

    2017-05-31

    Pandemic is a typical spreading phenomenon that can be observed in the human society and is dependent on the structure of the social network. The Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model describes spreading phenomena using two spreading factors; contagiousness (β) and recovery rate (γ). Some network models are trying to reflect the social network, but the real structure is difficult to uncover. We have developed a spreading phenomenon simulator that can input the epidemic parameters and network parameters and performed the experiment of disease propagation. The simulation result was analyzed to construct a new marker VRTP distribution. We also induced the VRTP formula for three of the network mathematical models. We suggest new marker VRTP (value of recovered on turning point) to describe the coupling between the SIR spreading and the Scale-free (SF) network and observe the aspects of the coupling effects with the various of spreading and network parameters. We also derive the analytic formulation of VRTP in the fully mixed model, the configuration model, and the degree-based model respectively in the mathematical function form for the insights on the relationship between experimental simulation and theoretical consideration. We discover the coupling effect between SIR spreading and SF network through devising novel marker VRTP which reflects the shifting effect and relates to entropy.

  14. No evidence of contagious yawning in the red-footed tortoise Geochelone carbonaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna WILKINSON, Natalie SEBANZ, Isabella MANDL, Ludwig HUBER

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Three hypotheses have attempted to explain the phenomenon of contagious yawning. It has been hypothesized that it is a fixed action pattern for which the releasing stimulus is the observation of another yawn, that it is the result of non-conscious mimicry emerging through close links between perception and action or that it is the result of empathy, involving the ability to engage in mental state attribution. This set of experiments sought to distinguish between these hypotheses by examining contagious yawning in a species that is unlikely to show nonconscious mimicry and empathy but does respond to social stimuli: the red-footed tortoise Geochelone carbonaria. A demonstrator tortoise was conditioned to yawn when presented with a red square-shaped stimulus. Observer tortoises were exposed to three conditions: observation of conditioned yawn, non demonstration control, and stimulus only control. We measured the number of yawns for each observer animal in each condition. There was no difference between conditions. Experiment 2 therefore increased the number of conditioned yawns presented. Again, there was no significant difference between conditions. It seemed plausible that the tortoises did not view the conditioned yawn as a real yawn and therefore a final experiment was run using video recorded stimuli. The observer tortoises were presented with three conditions: real yawn, conditioned yawns and empty background. Again there was no significant difference between conditions. We therefore conclude that the red-footed tortoise does not yawn in response to observing a conspecific yawn. This suggests that contagious yawning is not the result of a fixed action pattern but may involve more complex social processes [Current Zoology 57 (4: 477–484, 2011].

  15. Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merler, Stefano; Ajelli, Marco; Fumanelli, Laura; Gomes, Marcelo F C; Piontti, Ana Pastore Y; Rossi, Luca; Chao, Dennis L; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-02-01

    The 2014 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in parts of west Africa defines an unprecedented health threat. We developed a model of Ebola virus transmission that integrates detailed geographical and demographic data from Liberia to overcome the limitations of non-spatial approaches in projecting the disease dynamics and assessing non-pharmaceutical control interventions. We modelled the movements of individuals, including patients not infected with Ebola virus, seeking assistance in health-care facilities, the movements of individuals taking care of patients infected with Ebola virus not admitted to hospital, and the attendance of funerals. Individuals were grouped into randomly assigned households (size based on Demographic Health Survey data) that were geographically placed to match population density estimates on a grid of 3157 cells covering the country. The spatial agent-based model was calibrated with a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. The model was used to estimate Ebola virus transmission parameters and investigate the effectiveness of interventions such as availability of Ebola treatment units, safe burials procedures, and household protection kits. Up to Aug 16, 2014, we estimated that 38·3% of infections (95% CI 17·4-76·4) were acquired in hospitals, 30·7% (14·1-46·4) in households, and 8·6% (3·2-11·8) while participating in funerals. We noted that the movement and mixing, in hospitals at the early stage of the epidemic, of patients infected with Ebola virus and those not infected was a sufficient driver of the reported pattern of spatial spread. The subsequent decrease of incidence at country and county level is attributable to the increasing availability of Ebola treatment units (which in turn contributed to drastically decreased hospital transmission), safe burials, and distribution of household protection kits. The model allows assessment of intervention options and the understanding of their role in the decrease in incidence reported since

  16. Evolutionary history of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia using next generation sequencing of Mycoplasma mycoides Subsp. mycoides "Small Colony".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginie Dupuy

    Full Text Available Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides "Small Colony" (MmmSC is responsible for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP in bovidae, a notifiable disease to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE. Although its origin is not documented, the disease was known in Europe in 1773. It reached nearly world-wide distribution in the 19(th century through the cattle trade and was eradicated from most continents by stamping-out policies. During the 20(th century it persisted in Africa, and it reappeared sporadically in Southern Europe. Yet, classical epidemiology studies failed to explain the re-occurrence of the disease in Europe in the 1990s. The objectives of this study were to obtain a precise phylogeny of this pathogen, reconstruct its evolutionary history, estimate the date of its emergence, and determine the origin of the most recent European outbreaks. A large-scale genomic approach based on next-generation sequencing technologies was applied to construct a robust phylogeny of this extremely monomorphic pathogen by using 20 representative strains of various geographical origins. Sixty two polymorphic genes of the MmmSC core genome were selected, representing 83601 bp in total and resulting in 139 SNPs within the 20 strains. A robust phylogeny was obtained that identified a lineage specific to European strains; African strains were scattered in various branches. Bayesian analysis allowed dating the most recent common ancestor for MmmSC around 1700. The strains circulating in Sub-Saharan Africa today, however, were shown to descend from a strain that existed around 1810. MmmSC emerged recently, about 300 years ago, and was most probably exported from Europe to other continents, including Africa, during the 19(th century. Its diversity is now greater in Africa, where CBPP is enzootic, than in Europe, where outbreaks occurred sporadically until 1999 and where CBPP may now be considered eradicated unless MmmSC remains undetected.

  17. Nintendo Wii Fit-Based Sleepiness Testing is Not Impaired by Contagious Sleepiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aino Tietäväinen

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Sleep deprivation may cause accidents, and it has deteriorating effects on health. A measurement of postural steadiness by a portable and affordable Nintendo Wii Fit balance board can be used to quantify a person's alertness. At work, people are under the influence of their environment—often other people—that may affect their alertness. This work investigates whether sleep deprivation among people is “contagious,” as quantified by sway measures. We measured 21 volunteers' postural steadiness while alert and sleep deprived. During the measurements, a screen placed in front of the participants showed a footage of either alert or sleep-deprived faces. We found a significant difference between the day time and night time steadiness, but found no effect resulting from watching footage of sleep-deprived people. This finding shows that a posturographic sleepiness tester quantifies physiological sleep deprivation, and is insensitive to the influence of social factors. Keywords: contagious sleepiness, portable and affordable sleepiness tester, posturography, social contagion

  18. Feeder use predicts both acquisition and transmission of a contagious pathogen in a North American songbird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adelman, James S; Moyers, Sahnzi C; Farine, Damien R; Hawley, Dana M

    2015-09-22

    Individual heterogeneity can influence the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife and humans alike. Thus, recent work has sought to identify behavioural characteristics that contribute disproportionately to individual variation in pathogen acquisition (super-receiving) or transmission (super-spreading). However, it remains unknown whether the same behaviours enhance both acquisition and transmission, a scenario likely to result in explosive epidemics. Here, we examined this possibility in an ecologically relevant host-pathogen system: house finches and their bacterial pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum, which causes severe conjunctivitis. We examined behaviours likely to influence disease acquisition (feeder use, aggression, social network affiliations) in an observational field study, finding that the time an individual spends on bird feeders best predicted the risk of conjunctivitis. To test whether this behaviour also influences the likelihood of transmitting M. gallisepticum, we experimentally inoculated individuals based on feeding behaviour and tracked epidemics within captive flocks. As predicted, transmission was fastest when birds that spent the most time on feeders initiated the epidemic. Our results suggest that the same behaviour underlies both pathogen acquisition and transmission in this system and potentially others. Identifying individuals that exhibit such behaviours is critical for disease management. © 2015 The Author(s).

  19. Be-CoDiS: A Mathematical Model to Predict the Risk of Human Diseases Spread Between Countries--Validation and Application to the 2014-2015 Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivorra, Benjamin; Ngom, Diène; Ramos, Ángel M

    2015-09-01

    Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that currently requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in the UK, the USA and Spain. Regarding the emergency of this situation, there is a need for the development of decision tools, such as mathematical models, to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In this work, we propose a novel deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Between-Countries Disease Spread (Be-CoDiS), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries. The main interesting characteristics of Be-CoDiS are the consideration of the movement of people between countries, the control measure effects and the use of time-dependent coefficients adapted to each country. First, we focus on the mathematical formulation of each component of the model and explain how its parameters and inputs are obtained. Then, in order to validate our approach, we consider two numerical experiments regarding the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic. The first one studies the ability of the model in predicting the EVD evolution between countries starting from the index cases in Guinea in December 2013. The second one consists of forecasting the evolution of the epidemic by using some recent data. The results obtained with Be-CoDiS are compared to real data and other model outputs found in the literature. Finally, a brief parameter sensitivity analysis is done. A free MATLAB version of Be-CoDiS is available at: http://www.mat.ucm.es/momat/software.htm.

  20. Molecular epidemiology of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia in Tanzania based on amplified fragment length polymorphism and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kusiluka, L.J.M.; Ojeniyi, B.; Friis, N.F.

    2001-01-01

    anti vaccine strains. The strong genomic homogeneity among, M. mycoides SC strains associated with outbreaks of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia in different regions of Tanzania suggests that the outbreaks of the disease in the 1990-99 period might have been caused Ly a single epidemic clone. Moreover......The genetic diversity of 60 field strains of Mycoplasma mycoides ssp. mycoides, small colony type (M,. mycoides), comprising 56 isolates from cattle in Tanzania, one from Kenya, two from Botswana and one from Portugal, as well as the type (PG1(T)) and vaccine (T-1-SR49) strains, was ivestigated...... strains. The AFLP profiles of the type and vaccine strains were indistingiuishable from each other. Indistinguishable AFLP profiles were found for 55 Tanzanian held strains, one of them isolated in 1990 and the other 54 isolated in 1998/1999), although one strain isolated in 1999 showed a different...

  1. Analysis of immune responses to recombinant proteins from strains of Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides, the causative agent of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Casal, Jose; Prysliak, Tracy; Maina, Teresa; Wang, Yejun; Townsend, Hugh; Berverov, Emil; Nkando, Isabel; Wesonga, Hezron; Liljander, Anne; Jores, Joerg; Naessens, Jan; Gerdts, Volker; Potter, Andrew

    2015-11-15

    Current contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) vaccines are based on live-attenuated strains of Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides (Mmm). These vaccines have shortcomings in terms of efficacy, duration of immunity and in some cases show severe side effects at the inoculation site; hence the need to develop new vaccines to combat the disease. Reverse vaccinology approaches were used and identified 66 candidate Mycoplasma proteins using available Mmm genome data. These proteins were ranked by their ability to be recognized by serum from CBPP-positive cattle and thereafter used to inoculate naïve cattle. We report here the inoculation of cattle with recombinant proteins and the subsequent humoral and T-cell-mediated immune responses to these proteins and conclude that a subset of these proteins are candidate molecules for recombinant protein-based subunit vaccines for CBPP control. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. First isolation of Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capricolum, one of the causal agents of caprine contagious agalactia, on the island of Lanzarote (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Fe, C; Gutiérrez, A; Poveda, J B; Assunção, P; Ramírez, A S; Fabelo, F

    2007-03-01

    During an unusually long period of bad weather, several outbreaks of caprine contagious agalactia (CCA) were reported in a number of flocks on the island of Lanzarote (Canary Islands, Spain). Clinical and subclinical mastitis in lactating goats and some cases of arthritis and pneumonia in kids were observed in the affected flocks. Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capricolum was isolated as the main causal agent of the outbreaks, associated with M. mycoides subsp. mycoides "large colony type" (Mmm LC) in two flocks. This is the first report of an isolation of M. capricolum subsp. capricolum on the island of Lanzarote. The finding is of epidemiological importance and could complicate plans to control the disease. The significance of this mycoplasma species in association with CCA must now be studied in detail.

  3. In vitro susceptibility of contagious ovine digital dermatitis associated Treponema spp. isolates to antimicrobial agents in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angell, Joseph W; Clegg, Simon R; Sullivan, Leigh E; Duncan, Jennifer S; Grove-White, Dai H; Carter, Stuart D; Evans, Nicholas J

    2015-12-01

    Contagious ovine digital dermatitis (CODD) is an important cause of infectious lameness in sheep in the UK and Ireland and has a severe impact on the welfare of affected individuals. The three treponemal phylogroups Treponema medium/Treponema vincentii-like, Treponema phagedenis-like and Treponema pedis spirochaetes have been associated with clinical CODD lesions and are considered to be a necessary cause of disease. There are scant data on the antimicrobial susceptibility of the treponemes cultured from CODD lesions. The aim of this study was to determine in vitro the miniumum inhibitory concentration/ minimum bactericidal concentration (MIC/MBC) of antimicrobials used in the sheep industry for isolates of the three CODD associated treponeme phylogroups T. medium/T. vincentii-like, T. phagedenis-like and T. pedis. Twenty treponeme isolates; from 19 sheep with clinical CODD lesions. A microdilution method was used to determine in vitro the MIC/MBC of 10 antimicrobial agents for 20 treponeme isolates (five T. medium/T. vincentii-like, 10 T. phagedenis-like and five T. pedis). The antimicrobials tested were penicillin G, amoxicillin, oxytetracycline, tilmicosin, lincomycin, spectinomycin, tylosin, tildipirosin, tulathromycin and gamithromycin. The treponeme isolates tested showed low MICs and MBCs to all 10 antimicrobials tested. They were most susceptible to gamithromycin and tildipirosin (MIC90: 0.0469 mg/L), and were least susceptible to lincomycin, spectinomycin and oxytetracycline (MIC90: 48 mg/L, 24 mg/L and 3 mg/L, respectively). These data are comparable to in vitro antimicrobial susceptibility data for treponemes cultured from bovine digital dermatitis lesions. Dependent on local licensing, penicillin and tilmicosin appear to be the best candidates for future in vivo studies. © 2015 The Authors. Veterinary Dermatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the ESVD and ACVD.

  4. Nintendo Wii Fit-Based Sleepiness Testing is Not Impaired by Contagious Sleepiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tietäväinen, Aino; Kuvaldina, Maria; Hæggström, Edward

    2018-06-01

    Sleep deprivation may cause accidents, and it has deteriorating effects on health. A measurement of postural steadiness by a portable and affordable Nintendo Wii Fit balance board can be used to quantify a person's alertness. At work, people are under the influence of their environment-often other people-that may affect their alertness. This work investigates whether sleep deprivation among people is "contagious," as quantified by sway measures. We measured 21 volunteers' postural steadiness while alert and sleep deprived. During the measurements, a screen placed in front of the participants showed a footage of either alert or sleep-deprived faces. We found a significant difference between the day time and night time steadiness, but found no effect resulting from watching footage of sleep-deprived people. This finding shows that a posturographic sleepiness tester quantifies physiological sleep deprivation, and is insensitive to the influence of social factors.

  5. Bioeconomic modeling of lactational antimicrobial treatment of new bovine subclinical intramammary infections caused by contagious pathogens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van den Borne, B. H. P.; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Van Schaik, G.

    2010-01-01

    This study determined the direct and indirect epidemiologic and economic effects of lactational treatment of new bovine subclinical intramammary infections (IMI) caused by contagious pathogens using an existing bioeconomic model. The dynamic and stochastic model simulated the dynamics...... of uncured cows after 2 mo of infection. Model behavior was observed for variation in parameter input values. Compared with no lactational intervention, lactational intervention of new subclinical IMI resulted in fewer clinical flare ups, less transmission within the herd, and much lower combined total....... Changing the probability of cure resulted in a nonlinear change in the cumulative incidence of IMI cases and associated costs. Lactational treatment was able to prevent IMI epidemics in dairy herds at high transmission rates of Strep. uberis, Strep. dysgalactiae, and E. coli. Lactational treatment did...

  6. Coupling effects on turning points of infectious diseases epidemics in scale-free networks

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Kiseong; Lee, Sangyeon; Lee, Doheon; Lee, Kwang Hyung

    2017-01-01

    Background Pandemic is a typical spreading phenomenon that can be observed in the human society and is dependent on the structure of the social network. The Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model describes spreading phenomena using two spreading factors; contagiousness (?) and recovery rate (?). Some network models are trying to reflect the social network, but the real structure is difficult to uncover. Methods We have developed a spreading phenomenon simulator that can input the epidemi...

  7. An observational investigation of behavioural contagion in common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus: indications for contagious scent-marking.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg J.M. Massen

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Behavioural contagion is suggested to promote group coordination that may facilitate activity transitions, increased vigilance and state matching. Apart from contagious yawning, however, very little attention has been given to this phenomenon, and studies on contagious yawning in primates have so far only focused on Old World monkeys and apes. Here we studied behavioural contagion in common marmosets, a species for which group coordination and vigilance are paramount. In particular, we investigated the contagiousness of yawning, stretching, scratching, tongue protrusion, gnawing and scent-marking. We coded these behaviours from 14 adult marmosets, from two different social groups. During testing sessions, animals were separated into groups of four individuals for 20-minute observation periods, across three distinct diurnal time points (morning, midday and afternoon to test for circadian patterns. We observed almost no yawning (0.12 yawns / hour and very little stretching behaviour. For all other behaviours, which were more common, we found several temporal and inter-individual differences (i.e., sex, age, dominance status predictive of these responses. Moreover, we found that gnawing and scent-marking, that almost always co-occurred as a fixed-action pattern, were highly temporally clustered within observation sessions. We discuss the relative absence of yawning in marmosets as well as the possible function of contagious scent-marking, and provide suggestions for future research into the proximate and ultimate functions of these behaviours in marmosets.

  8. Spread effects - methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

  9. Ocean, Spreading Centre

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Krishna, K.S.

    over the global midoceanic ridges have found some explicit relationships between spreading rate, seismic structure, and ridge-axis morphology. Bibliography Detrick, R. S., Buhl, P., Vera, E., Mutter, J., Orcutt, J., Madsen, J., and Brocher, T., 1987...

  10. The VULCANO spreading programme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M. [CEA (Atomic Energy Commission), DRN/DER - Bat. 212, CEA Cadarache, 13108 St. Paul Lez Durance (France)

    1999-07-01

    Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

  11. The VULCANO spreading programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cognet, G.; Laffont, G.; Jegou, C.; Journeau, C.; Sudreau, F.; Pierre, J.; Ramacciotti, M.

    1999-01-01

    Among the currently studied core-catcher projects, some of them suppose corium spreading before cooling, in particular the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) core-catcher concept is based on mixing the corium with a special concrete, spreading the molten mixture on a large multi-layer surface cooled from the bottom and subsequently cooling by flooding with water. Therefore, melt spreading deserves intensive investigation in order to determine and quantify key phenomena which govern the stopping of spreading. In France, for some years, the Nuclear Reactor Division of the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA/DRN) has undertaken a large program to improve knowledge on corium behaviour and coolability. This program is based on experimental and theoretical investigations which are finally gathered in scenario and mechanistic computer codes. In this framework, the real material experimental programme, VULCANO, conducted within an European frame, is currently devoted to the study of corium spreading. In 1997 and 1998, several tests have been performed on dry corium spreading with various composition of melts. Although all the observed phenomena, in particular the differences between simulant and real material melts have not been yet totally explained, these tests have already provided a lot of information about: The behaviour of complex mixtures including refractory oxides, silica, iron oxides and in one case iron metal; Spreading progression, which was never stopped in any of these tests by a crust formation at the front; The structure of spread melts (porosity, crusts,...); Physico-chemical interaction between melt and the refractory substratum which was composed of zirconia bricks. (authors)

  12. Outbreaks where food workers have been implicated in the spread of foodborne disease. Part 11. Use of antiseptics and sanitizers in community settings and issues of hand hygiene compliance in health care and food industries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Ewen C D; Greig, Judy D; Michaels, Barry S; Bartleson, Charles A; Smith, Debra; Holah, John

    2010-12-01

    Hand washing with soap is a practice that has long been recognized as a major barrier to the spread of disease in food production, preparation, and service and in health care settings, including hospitals, child care centers, and elder care facilities. Many of these settings present multiple opportunities for spread of pathogens within at-risk populations, and extra vigilance must be applied. Unfortunately, hand hygiene is not always carried out effectively, and both enteric and respiratory diseases are easily spread in these environments. Where water is limited or frequent hand hygiene is required on a daily basis, such as for many patients in hospitals and astronauts in space travel, instant sanitizers or sanitary wipes are thought to be an effective way of preventing contamination and spread of organisms among coworkers and others. Most concerns regarding compliance are associated with the health care field, but the food industry also must be considered. Specific reasons for not washing hands at appropriate times are laziness, time pressure, inadequate facilities and supplies, lack of accountability, and lack of involvement by companies, managers, and workers in supporting proper hand washing. To facilitate improvements in hand hygiene, measurement of compliant and noncompliant actions is necessary before implementing any procedural changes. Training alone is not sufficient for long-lasting improvement. Multiactivity strategies also must include modification of the organization culture to encourage safe hygienic practices, motivation of employees willing to use peer pressure on noncompliant coworkers, a reward and/or penalty system, and an operational design that facilitates regular hand hygiene.

  13. Heterogeneous incidence and propagation of spreading depolarizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Dan; Theriot, Jeremy J; Zyuzin, Jekaterina; Service, C Austin; Chang, Joshua C; Tang, Y Tanye; Bogdanov, Vladimir B; Multon, Sylvie; Schoenen, Jean; Ju, Y Sungtaek

    2016-01-01

    Spreading depolarizations are implicated in a diverse set of neurologic diseases. They are unusual forms of nervous system activity in that they propagate very slowly and approximately concentrically, apparently not respecting the anatomic, synaptic, functional, or vascular architecture of the brain. However, there is evidence that spreading depolarizations are not truly concentric, isotropic, or homogeneous, either in space or in time. Here we present evidence from KCl-induced spreading depolarizations, in mouse and rat, in vivo and in vitro, showing the great variability that these depolarizations can exhibit. This variability can help inform the mechanistic understanding of spreading depolarizations, and it has implications for their phenomenology in neurologic disease. PMID:27562866

  14. Foot-and-Mouth Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belsham, Graham; Charleston, Bryan; Jackson, Terry

    2015-01-01

    Foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) is an economically important, highly contagious disease of cloven‐hoofed animals characterised by the appearance of vesicles (blisters) on the feet and in, and around, the mouth. The causative agent, foot‐and‐mouth disease virus (FMDV), was the first mammalian virus...

  15. Foot-and-mouth disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belsham, Graham; Charleston, Bryan; Jackson, Terry

    2009-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease is an economically important, highly contagious, disease of cloven-hoofed animals characterized by the appearance of vesicles (blisters) on the feet and in and around the mouth. The causative agent, foot-and-mouth disease virus, was the first mammalian virus to be discovered...

  16. Spread of Rare Fungus from Vancouver Island

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2006-12-20

    Cryptococcus gattii, a rare fungus normally found in the tropics, has infected people and animals on Vancouver Island, Canada. Dr. David Warnock, Director, Division of Foodborne, Bacterial, and Mycotic Diseases, CDC, discusses public health concerns about further spread of this organism.  Created: 12/20/2006 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 12/29/2006.

  17. Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare (AHAW); More, Simon; Bøtner, Anette

    2017-01-01

    Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia has been assessed according to the criteria of the Animal Health Law (AHL), in particular criteria of Article 7 on disease profile and impacts, Article 5 on the eligibility of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia to be listed, Article 9 for the categorisation...

  18. The reproduction of borders and the contagiousness of illegalisation: A case of a Belgrade youth hostel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojić-Mitrović Marta

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past couple of years, Serbia has become a transit country for the ever increasing number of migrants from Africa and Asia, travelling towards the EU. As part of the process of approaching the EU - first achieving the liberalisation of the visa regime for entry into the Schengen area in 2009 and then getting the official status of a candidate member in 2012 - Serbia needed to harmonise its policies with those of the EU, especially in the areas of border control and migration management. As a result, Serbia adopted a series of laws and policies which effectively illegalise migrants. In this paper, we first look into how migrant “illegality” is produced by Serbian migration legislation and policy, and second, we look at the consequences of this illegalisation. The first set of consequences are those that are felt by migrants themselves, as they are its principle target. The second set of consequences affects those persons that come into contact with the illegalised migrants. We speak of contagiousness of illegalisation, which affects those people who are providing professional services to illegalised persons. Under the treat of possible criminalisation, pressure is put on them to conduct “legality” checks and thus reproduce borders far away from the actual state border. We look particularly at reproduction of borders in the area of accommodation of migrants, taking as a case study a Belgrade youth hostel.

  19. Virulence Genes of S. aureus from Dairy Cow Mastitis and Contagiousness Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magro, Giada; Biffani, Stefano; Minozzi, Giulietta; Ehricht, Ralf; Monecke, Stefan; Luini, Mario; Piccinini, Renata

    2017-06-21

    Staphylococcus aureus ( S. aureus ) is a major agent of dairy cow intramammary infections: the different prevalences of mastitis reported might be related to a combination of S. aureus virulence factors beyond host factors. The present study considered 169 isolates from different Italian dairy herds that were classified into four groups based on the prevalence of S. aureus infection at the first testing: low prevalence (LP), medium-low (MLP), medium-high (MHP) and high (HP). We aimed to correlate the presence of virulence genes with the prevalence of intramammary infections in order to develop new strategies for the control of S. aureus mastitis. Microarray data were statistically evaluated using binary logistic regression and correspondence analysis to screen the risk factors and the relationship between prevalence group and gene. The analysis showed: (1) 24 genes at significant risk of being detected in all the herds with infection prevalence >5%, including genes belonging to microbial surface components recognizing adhesive matrix molecules (MSCRAMMs), immune evasion and serine proteases; and (2) a significant correlation coefficient between the genes interacting with the host immune response and HP isolates against LP ones. These results support the hypothesis that virulence factors, in addition to cow management, could be related to strain contagiousness, offering new insights into vaccine development.

  20. Virulence Genes of S. aureus from Dairy Cow Mastitis and Contagiousness Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giada Magro

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus is a major agent of dairy cow intramammary infections: the different prevalences of mastitis reported might be related to a combination of S. aureus virulence factors beyond host factors. The present study considered 169 isolates from different Italian dairy herds that were classified into four groups based on the prevalence of S. aureus infection at the first testing: low prevalence (LP, medium–low (MLP, medium–high (MHP and high (HP. We aimed to correlate the presence of virulence genes with the prevalence of intramammary infections in order to develop new strategies for the control of S. aureus mastitis. Microarray data were statistically evaluated using binary logistic regression and correspondence analysis to screen the risk factors and the relationship between prevalence group and gene. The analysis showed: (1 24 genes at significant risk of being detected in all the herds with infection prevalence >5%, including genes belonging to microbial surface components recognizing adhesive matrix molecules (MSCRAMMs, immune evasion and serine proteases; and (2 a significant correlation coefficient between the genes interacting with the host immune response and HP isolates against LP ones. These results support the hypothesis that virulence factors, in addition to cow management, could be related to strain contagiousness, offering new insights into vaccine development.

  1. Differential induction and spread of tau pathology in young PS19 tau transgenic mice following intracerebral injections of pathological tau from Alzheimer’s disease or corticobasal degeneration brains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boluda, Susana; Iba, Michiyo; Zhang, Bin; Raible, Kevin M.; Lee, Virginia M-Y.; Trojanowski, John Q.

    2015-01-01

    Filamentous tau pathologies are hallmark lesions of several neurodegenerative tauopathies including Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and corticobasal degeneration (CBD) which show cell type-specific and topographically distinct tau inclusions. Growing evidence supports templated transmission of tauopathies through functionally interconnected neuroanatomical pathways suggesting that different self-propagating strains of pathological tau could account for the diverse manifestations of neurodegenerative tauopathies. Here, we describe the rapid and distinct cell type-specific spread of pathological tau following intracerebral injections of CBD or AD brain extracts enriched in pathological tau (designated CBD-Tau and AD-Tau, respectively) in young human mutant P301S tau transgenic (Tg) mice (line PS19) ~6–9 months before they show onset of mutant tau transgene-induced tau pathology. At 1 month post-injection of CBD-Tau, tau inclusions developed predominantly in oligodendrocytes of the fimbria and white matter near the injection sites with infrequent intraneuronal tau aggregates. In contrast, injections of AD-Tau in young PS19 mice induced tau pathology predominantly in neuronal perikarya with little or no oligodendrocyte involvement 1 month post-injection. With longer post-injection survival intervals of up to 6 months, CBD-Tau- and AD-Tau-induced tau pathology spread to different brain regions distant from the injection sites while maintaining the cell type-specific pattern noted above. Finally, CA3 neuron loss was detected 3 months post-injection of AD-Tau but not CBD-Tau. Thus, AD-Tau and CBD-Tau represent specific pathological tau strains that spread differentially and may underlie distinct clinical and pathological features of these two tauopathies. Hence, these strains could become targets to develop disease-modifying therapies for CBD and AD. PMID:25534024

  2. Contagious comments: what was the online buzz about the 2011 Quebec measles outbreak?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer A Pereira

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although interruption of endemic measles was achieved in the Americas in 2002, Quebec experienced an outbreak in 2011 of 776 reported cases; 80% of these individuals had not been fully vaccinated. We analyzed readers' online responses to Canadian news articles regarding the outbreak to better understand public perceptions of measles and vaccination. METHODS: We searched Canadian online English and French news sites for articles posted between April 2011 and March 2012 containing the words "measles" and "Quebec". We included articles that i concerned the outbreak or related vaccination strategies; and ii generated at least ten comments. Two English and two bilingual researchers coded the unedited comments, categorizing codes to allow themes to emerge. RESULTS: We analyzed 448 comments from 188 individuals, in response to three French articles and six English articles; 112 individuals expressed positive perceptions of measles vaccination (2.2 comments/person, 38 were negative (4.2 comments/person, 11 had mixed feelings (1.5 comments/person, and 27 expressed no opinion (1.1 comments/person. Vaccine-supportive themes involved the success of vaccination in preventing disease spread, societal responsibility to vaccinate for herd immunity, and refutation of the autism link. Those against measles vaccination felt it was a personal rather than societal choice, and conveyed a distrust of vaccine manufacturers, believing that measles infection is not only safe but safer than vaccination. Commenters with mixed feelings expressed uncertainty of the infection's severity, and varied in support of all vaccines based on perceived risk/benefit ratios. CONCLUSION: The anti-vaccine minority's volume of comments translates to a disproportionately high representation on online boards. Public health messages should address concerns by emphasizing that immunization is always a personal choice in Canada, and that the pharmaceutical industry is strictly

  3. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explo...

  4. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  5. Contagious yawning, social cognition, and arousal: an investigation of the processes underlying shelter dogs' responses to human yawns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttner, Alicia Phillips; Strasser, Rosemary

    2014-01-01

    Studies of contagious yawning have reported inconsistent findings regarding whether dogs exhibit this behavior and whether it is mediated by social-cognitive processes or the result of physiological arousal. We investigated why some dogs yawn in response to human yawns; particularly, whether these dogs are exceptional in their ability to understand human social cues or whether they were more physiologically aroused. Sixty shelter dogs were exposed to yawning and nonyawning control stimuli demonstrated by an unfamiliar human. We took salivary cortisol samples before and after testing to determine the role of arousal in yawn contagion. Dogs were tested on the object-choice task to assess their sensitivity for interpreting human social cues. We found that 12 dogs yawned only in response to human yawns (i.e., appeared to exhibit yawn contagion), though contagious yawning at the population level was not observed. Dogs that exhibited yawn contagion did not perform better on the object-choice task than other dogs, but their cortisol levels remained elevated after exposure to human yawning, whereas other dogs had reduced cortisol levels following yawning stimuli relative to their baseline levels. We interpret these findings as showing that human yawning, when presented in a stressful context, can further influence arousal in dogs, which then causes some to yawn. Although the precise social-cognitive mechanisms that underlie contagious yawning in dogs are still unclear, yawning between humans and dogs may involve some communicative function that is modulated by context and arousal.

  6. Combinatorics of spreads and parallelisms

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Norman

    2010-01-01

    Partitions of Vector Spaces Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Finite Focal-SpreadsGeneralizing André SpreadsThe Going Up Construction for Focal-SpreadsSubgeometry Partitions Subgeometry and Quasi-Subgeometry Partitions Subgeometries from Focal-SpreadsExtended André SubgeometriesKantor's Flag-Transitive DesignsMaximal Additive Partial SpreadsSubplane Covered Nets and Baer Groups Partial Desarguesian t-Parallelisms Direct Products of Affine PlanesJha-Johnson SL(2,

  7. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Liu

    Full Text Available The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

  8. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

  9. Infectious Diseases in Day Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleator, Esther K.

    Discussed in this publication are infectious illnesses for which children attending day care appear to be at special risk. Also covered are the common cold, some infectious disease problems receiving media attention, and some other annoying but not serious diseases, such as head lice, pinworms, and contagious skin conditions. Causes,…

  10. Spread spectrum image steganography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, L M; Boncelet, C R; Retter, C T

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new method of digital steganography, entitled spread spectrum image steganography (SSIS). Steganography, which means "covered writing" in Greek, is the science of communicating in a hidden manner. Following a discussion of steganographic communication theory and review of existing techniques, the new method, SSIS, is introduced. This system hides and recovers a message of substantial length within digital imagery while maintaining the original image size and dynamic range. The hidden message can be recovered using appropriate keys without any knowledge of the original image. Image restoration, error-control coding, and techniques similar to spread spectrum are described, and the performance of the system is illustrated. A message embedded by this method can be in the form of text, imagery, or any other digital signal. Applications for such a data-hiding scheme include in-band captioning, covert communication, image tamperproofing, authentication, embedded control, and revision tracking.

  11. Infectious diseases epidemic threats and mass gatherings: Refocusing global attention on the continuing spread of the Middle East Respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zumla, A. (Alimuddin); Alagaili, A.N. (Abdulaziz N.); Cotten, M. (Matthew); Azhar, E.I. (Esam I.)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractMedia and World Health Organization (WHO) attention on Zika virus transmission at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games and the 2015 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa diverted the attention of global public health authorities from other lethal infectious diseases with epidemic potential. Mass

  12. Control of spread of Augusta disease caused by tobacco necrosis virus in tulip by composting residual waste of small bulbs, tunics, roots and soil debris

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asjes, C.J.; Barnhoorn, G.J.

    2002-01-01

    In this study the elimination of the infectious virus/fungus complex of tobacco necrosis virus (TNV; cause of Augusta disease in tulip) and Olpidium brassicae in different soil types and residual waste material of soil debris, small tulip bulbs, roots and tunics by temperature treatments of

  13. Socio-economic factors influencing the spread of drinking water diseases in rural Africa: case study of Bondo sub-county, Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Anthony Joachim; Oyoo, Wandiga Shem; Odundo, Francis O; Wambu, Enos W

    2015-06-01

    Socio-economic and medical information on Bondo sub-county community was studied to help establish the relationship between the water quality challenges, community health and water rights conditions. Health challenges have been linked to water quality and household income. A total of 1,510 households/respondents were studied by means of a questionnaire. About 69% of the households have no access to treated water. Although 92% of the respondents appear to be aware that treatment of water prevents waterborne diseases, the lowest income group and children share a high burden of waterborne diseases requiring hospitalization and causing mortality. Open defecation (12.3%) in these study areas contributes to a high incidence of waterborne diseases. The community's constitutional rights to quality water in adequate quantities are greatly infringed. The source of low-quality water is not a significant determinant of waterborne disease. The differences in poverty level in the sub-county are statistically insignificant and contribute less than other factors. Increased investment in water provision across regions, improved sanitation and availability of affordable point-of-use water purification systems will have major positive impacts on the health and economic well-being of the community.

  14. Climate change and the spread of vector-borne diseases: using approximate Bayesian computation to compare invasion scenarios for the bluetongue virus vector Culicoides imicola in Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mardulyn, P.; Goffredo, M.; Conte, A.; Hendrickx, G.; Meiswinkel, R.; Balenghien, T.; Sghaier, S.; Lohr, Y.; Gilbert, M.

    2013-01-01

    Bluetongue (BT) is a commonly cited example of a disease with a distribution believed to have recently expanded in response to global warming. The BT virus is transmitted to ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides, and it has been hypothesized that the emergence of BT in Mediterranean

  15. Ultrasonographic findings in goats with contagious caprine pleuropneumonia caused by Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tharwat, Mohamed; Al-Sobayil, Fahd

    2017-08-22

    In goats, contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) is a cause of major economic losses in Africa, Asia and in the Middle East. There is no information emphasising the importance of diagnostic ultrasound in goats with CCPP caused by Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae (Mccp). This study was designed to describe the ultrasonographic findings in goats with CCPP caused by Mccp and to correlate ultrasonographic with post-mortem findings. To this end, 55 goats with CCPP were examined. Twenty-five healthy adult goats were used as a control group. Major clinical findings included harried, painful respiration, dyspnoea and mouth breathing. On ultrasonography, a liver-like echotexture was imaged in 13 goats. Upon post-mortem examination, all 13 goats exhibited unilateral pulmonary consolidation. Seven goats had a unilateral hypoechoic pleural effusion. At necropsy, the related lung was consolidated and the pleural fluid appeared turbid and greenish. Pleural abscessiation detected in five goats was confirmed post-mortem. Twenty-eight goats had a bright, fibrinous matrix extending over the chest wall containing numerous anechoic fluid pockets with medial displacement and compression of lung tissue. Echogenic tags imaged floating in the fluid were found upon post-mortem examination to be fibrin. In two goats, a consolidated right parenchyma was imaged together with hypoechoic pericardial effusions with echogenic tags covering the epicardium. At necropsy, the right lung was consolidated in three goats and fibrin threads were found covering the epicardium and pericardium. In goats with CCPP, the extension and the severity of the pulmonary changes could not be verified with clinical certainty in most cases, whereas this was possible most of the time with sonography, thus making the prognosis easier. Ultrasonographic examination of the pleurae and the lungs helped in the detection of various lesions.

  16. Spreading convulsions, spreading depolarization and epileptogenesis in human cerebral cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dreier, Jens P; Major, Sebastian; Pannek, Heinz-Wolfgang

    2012-01-01

    Spreading depolarization of cells in cerebral grey matter is characterized by massive ion translocation, neuronal swelling and large changes in direct current-coupled voltage recording. The near-complete sustained depolarization above the inactivation threshold for action potential generating...... stimulations. Eventually, epileptic field potentials were recorded during the period that had originally seen spreading depression of activity. Such spreading convulsions are characterized by epileptic field potentials on the final shoulder of the large slow potential change of spreading depolarization. We...

  17. Whole body MRI (WB-MRI) assessment of metastatic spread in prostate cancer: Therapeutic perspectives on targeted management of oligometastatic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larbi, Ahmed; Dallaudière, Benjamin; Pasoglou, Vasiliki; Padhani, Anwar; Michoux, Nicolas; Vande Berg, Bruno C; Tombal, Bertrand; Lecouvet, Frédéric E

    2016-08-01

    To determine the proportion of prostate cancer (PCa) patients with oligometastatic disease (≤3 synchronous lesions) using whole body magnetic resonance imaging with diffusion-weighted imaging (WB-MRI/DWI). To determine the proportion of patients with nodal disease confined within currently accepted target areas for extended lymph node dissection (eLND) and pelvic external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Two radiologists reviewed WB-MRI/DWI studies in 96 consecutive newly diagnosed metastatic PCa patients; 46 patients with newly diagnosed castration naive PCa (mHNPC) and 50 patients with first appearance of metastasis during monitoring for non-metastatic castration resistant PCa (M0 to mCRPC). The distribution of metastatic deposits was assessed and the proportions of patients with oligometastatic disease and with LN metastases located within eLND and EBRT targets were determined. Twenty-eight percent of mHNPC and 50% of mCPRC entered the metastatic disease with ≤3 sites. Bone metastases (BM) were identified in 68.8% patients; 71.7% of mHNPC and 66% mCRPC patients. Most commonly involved areas were iliac bones and lumbar spine. Enlarged lymph nodes (LN) were detected in 68.7% of patients; 69.6% of mHNPC and 68.0% of mCRPC. Most commonly involved areas were para-aortic, inter-aortico-cava, and external iliac areas. BM and LN were detected concomitantly in 41% of mHNPC and 34% of mCRPC. Visceral metastases were detected in 6.7%. Metastatic disease was confined to LN located within the accepted boundaries of eLND or pelvic EBRT target areas in only ≤25% and ≤30% of patients, respectively. Non-invasive mapping of metastatic landing sites in PCa using WB-MRI/DWI shows that 28% of the mHNPC patients, and 52% of the mCRPC can be classified as oligometastatic, thus challenging the concept of metastatic targeted therapy. More than two thirds of metastatic patients have LN located outside the usually recommended targets of eLND and pelvic EBRT. Prophylactic or salvage

  18. Spread of Rare Fungus from Vancouver Island

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Cryptococcus gattii, a rare fungus normally found in the tropics, has infected people and animals on Vancouver Island, Canada. Dr. David Warnock, Director, Division of Foodborne, Bacterial, and Mycotic Diseases, CDC, discusses public health concerns about further spread of this organism

  19. A network model for Ebola spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzo, Alessandro; Pedalino, Biagio; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2016-04-07

    The availability of accurate models for the spreading of infectious diseases has opened a new era in management and containment of epidemics. Models are extensively used to plan for and execute vaccination campaigns, to evaluate the risk of international spreadings and the feasibility of travel bans, and to inform prophylaxis campaigns. Even when no specific therapeutical protocol is available, as for the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), models of epidemic spreading can provide useful insight to steer interventions in the field and to forecast the trend of the epidemic. Here, we propose a novel mathematical model to describe EVD spreading based on activity driven networks (ADNs). Our approach overcomes the simplifying assumption of homogeneous mixing, which is central to most of the mathematically tractable models of EVD spreading. In our ADN-based model, each individual is not bound to contact every other, and its network of contacts varies in time as a function of an activity potential. Our model contemplates the possibility of non-ideal and time-varying intervention policies, which are critical to accurately describe EVD spreading in afflicted countries. The model is calibrated from field data of the 2014 April-to-December spreading in Liberia. We use the model as a predictive tool, to emulate the dynamics of EVD in Liberia and offer a one-year projection, until December 2015. Our predictions agree with the current vision expressed by professionals in the field, who consider EVD in Liberia at its final stage. The model is also used to perform a what-if analysis to assess the efficacy of timely intervention policies. In particular, we show that an earlier application of the same intervention policy would have greatly reduced the number of EVD cases, the duration of the outbreak, and the infrastructures needed for the implementation of the intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Detection of serum antibody levels against newcastle disease in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Poultry diseases are one of the main factors constraining poultry practice in most developing countries. Newcastle disease (ND) is a highly contagious and commonly fatal viral poultry disease caused by Newcastle disease virus (NDV). Detection of antibodies to Newcastle disease virus in 300 blood samples from local ...

  1. Estimation of wave directional spreading

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Deo, M.C.; Gondane, D.S.; SanilKumar, V.

    One of the useful measures of waves directional spreading at a given location is the directional spreading parameter. This paper presents a new approach to arrive at its characteristic value using the computational technique of Artificial Neural...

  2. Illusory spreading of watercolor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devinck, Frédéric; Hardy, Joseph L; Delahunt, Peter B; Spillmann, Lothar; Werner, John S

    2006-05-04

    The watercolor effect (WCE) is a phenomenon of long-range color assimilation occurring when a dark chromatic contour delineating a figure is flanked on the inside by a brighter chromatic contour; the brighter color spreads into the entire enclosed area. Here, we determined the optimal chromatic parameters and the cone signals supporting the WCE. To that end, we quantified the effect of color assimilation using hue cancellation as a function of hue, colorimetric purity, and cone modulation of inducing contours. When the inner and outer contours had chromaticities that were in opposite directions in color space, a stronger WCE was obtained as compared with other color directions. Additionally, equal colorimetric purity between the outer and inner contours was necessary to obtain a large effect compared with conditions in which the contours differed in colorimetric purity. However, there was no further increase in the magnitude of the effect when the colorimetric purity increased beyond a value corresponding to an equal vector length between the inner and outer contours. Finally, L-M-cone-modulated WCE was perceptually stronger than S-cone-modulated WCE for our conditions. This last result demonstrates that both L-M-cone and S-cone pathways are important for watercolor spreading. Our data suggest that the WCE depends critically upon the particular spatiochromatic arrangement in the display, with the relative chromatic contrast between the inducing contours being particularly important.

  3. Foot-and-Mouth Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Grubman, Marvin J.; Baxt, Barry

    2004-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals. The disease was initially described in the 16th century and was the first animal pathogen identified as a virus. Recent FMD outbreaks in developed countries and their significant economic impact have increased the concern of governments worldwide. This review describes the reemergence of FMD in developed countries that had been disease free for many years and the effect that this has had on disease control s...

  4. Vaccine-induced antibodies to herpes simplex virus glycoprotein D epitopes involved in virus entry and cell-to-cell spread correlate with protection against genital disease in guinea pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hook, Lauren M; Cairns, Tina M; Awasthi, Sita; Brooks, Benjamin D; Ditto, Noah T; Eisenberg, Roselyn J; Cohen, Gary H; Friedman, Harvey M

    2018-05-01

    Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) glycoprotein D (gD2) subunit antigen is included in many preclinical candidate vaccines. The rationale for including gD2 is to produce antibodies that block crucial gD2 epitopes involved in virus entry and cell-to-cell spread. HSV-2 gD2 was the only antigen in the Herpevac Trial for Women that protected against HSV-1 genital infection but not HSV-2. In that trial, a correlation was detected between gD2 ELISA titers and protection against HSV-1, supporting the importance of antibodies. A possible explanation for the lack of protection against HSV-2 was that HSV-2 neutralization titers were low, four-fold lower than to HSV-1. Here, we evaluated neutralization titers and epitope-specific antibody responses to crucial gD2 epitopes involved in virus entry and cell-to-cell spread as correlates of immune protection against genital lesions in immunized guinea pigs. We detected a strong correlation between neutralizing antibodies and protection against genital disease. We used a high throughput biosensor competition assay to measure epitope-specific responses to seven crucial gD2 linear and conformational epitopes involved in virus entry and spread. Some animals produced antibodies to most crucial epitopes while others produced antibodies to few. The number of epitopes recognized by guinea pig immune serum correlated with protection against genital lesions. We confirmed the importance of antibodies to each crucial epitope using monoclonal antibody passive transfer that improved survival and reduced genital disease in mice after HSV-2 genital challenge. We re-evaluated our prior study of epitope-specific antibody responses in women in the Herpevac Trial. Humans produced antibodies that blocked significantly fewer crucial gD2 epitopes than guinea pigs, and antibody responses in humans to some linear epitopes were virtually absent. Neutralizing antibody titers and epitope-specific antibody responses are important immune parameters to

  5. Hybrid spread spectrum radio system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Stephen F [London, TN; Dress, William B [Camas, WA

    2010-02-09

    Systems and methods are described for hybrid spread spectrum radio systems. A method, includes receiving a hybrid spread spectrum signal including: fast frequency hopping demodulating and direct sequence demodulating a direct sequence spread spectrum signal, wherein multiple frequency hops occur within a single data-bit time and each bit is represented by chip transmissions at multiple frequencies.

  6. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  7. Experimental Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia: A Long Term Study on the Course of Infection and Pathology in a Flock of Goats Infected with Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bölske G

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP is a major threat to goat farming in parts of Africa and Asia. It classically causes acute high morbidity and mortality early in infection, but little is known of its long term epizootiology and course. In this study, 10 goats were inoculated with Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae (M. capripneumoniae and then mixed with 15 goats for contact transmission. The disease course was monitored in each goat for 56–105 days, whereafter the goats were killed and necropsied. Varying features signifying infection occurred in altogether 17 goats (7 inoculated, 10 in-contact. Clinical signs were severe in 8 goats but no fatalities occurred. Only 6 goats had serum antibody titres against M. capripneumoniae in ELISA. Fourteen goats (5 inoculated, 9 in-contact had chronic pleuropulmonary lesions compatible with CCPP at necropsy and 7 of those showed M. capripneumoniae antigen in the lung by immunohistochemistry. Neither cultivation nor PCR tests were positive for the agent in any goat. The results indicate that the clinical course of CCPP in a flock may be comparatively mild, M. capripneumoniae-associated lung lesions may be present at a late stage of infection, and chronic infection may occur without a significant serological response.

  8. Dynamic properties of epidemic spreading on finite size complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ying; Liu, Yang; Shan, Xiu-Ming; Ren, Yong; Jiao, Jian; Qiu, Ben

    2005-11-01

    The Internet presents a complex topological structure, on which computer viruses can easily spread. By using theoretical analysis and computer simulation methods, the dynamic process of disease spreading on finite size networks with complex topological structure is investigated. On the finite size networks, the spreading process of SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model is a finite Markov chain with an absorbing state. Two parameters, the survival probability and the conditional infecting probability, are introduced to describe the dynamic properties of disease spreading on finite size networks. Our results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks. Also, knowledge about the dynamic character of virus spreading is helpful for adopting immunity policy.

  9. Asymmetrically interacting spreading dynamics on complex layered networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Tang, Ming; Yang, Hui; Younghae Do; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lee, GyuWon

    2014-05-29

    The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic threshold. When structural correlation exists between the two layers, the information threshold remains unchanged but the epidemic threshold can be enhanced, making the contact layer more resilient to epidemic outbreak. We develop a physical theory to understand the intricate interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics.

  10. Qualitative assessment of the commodity risk for spread of foot-and-mouth disease associated with international trade in deboned beef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paton, D J; Sinclair, M; Rodríguez, R

    2010-06-01

    The risk of importing foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) restricts trade in livestock and their products from parts of the world where the virus is present. This reduces trade opportunities and investment in the livestock sector of many developing countries and constrains global food supply. This review focuses on the risks associated with trade in deboned beef (DB) from foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)-infected cattle, countries or zones. A definition of DB is provided along with a description of the procedures for its preparation within beef slaughtering operations. Evidence is reviewed for circumstances under which DB can be contaminated with FMDV, and a commodity risk factor approach is used to consider the mitigating efficacy of slaughterhouse procedures. A combination of pre-slaughter and slaughterhouse measures has enabled DB to be safely imported into FMD-free countries from countries that were not nationally or zonally FMD-free. Nevertheless, current evidence does not provide absolute assurance that abattoir procedures for producing DB can result, by themselves, in a commodity with a negligible risk of transmitting FMDV without complementary measures to reduce the likelihood of slaughtering infected cattle. The main areas of uncertainty are the amounts of residual FMDV-harbouring tissues within DB, and our understanding of what constitutes a safe level of contamination. More detailed guidance should be developed to specify the mitigating measures needed in support of the export of DB from regions that are not officially FMD-free. This will help to avoid differences in interpretation of what is needed that give rise to obstacles to trade.

  11. Chimpanzees show a developmental increase in susceptibility to contagious yawning: a test of the effect of ontogeny and emotional closeness on yawn contagion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elainie Alenkær Madsen

    Full Text Available Contagious yawning has been reported for humans, dogs and several non-human primate species, and associated with empathy in humans and other primates. Still, the function, development and underlying mechanisms of contagious yawning remain unclear. Humans and dogs show a developmental increase in susceptibility to yawn contagion, with children showing an increase around the age of four, when also empathy-related behaviours and accurate identification of others' emotions begin to clearly evince. Explicit tests of yawn contagion in non-human apes have only involved adult individuals and examined the existence of conspecific yawn contagion. Here we report the first study of heterospecific contagious yawning in primates, and the ontogeny of susceptibility thereto in chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes verus. We examined whether emotional closeness, defined as attachment history with the yawning model, affected the strength of contagion, and compared the contagiousness of yawning to nose-wiping. Thirty-three orphaned chimpanzees observed an unfamiliar and familiar human (their surrogate human mother yawn, gape and nose-wipe. Yawning, but not nose-wiping, was contagious for juvenile chimpanzees, while infants were immune to contagion. Like humans and dogs, chimpanzees are subject to a developmental trend in susceptibility to contagious yawning, and respond to heterospecific yawn stimuli. Emotional closeness with the model did not affect contagion. The familiarity-biased social modulatory effect on yawn contagion previously found among some adult primates, seem to only emerge later in development, or be limited to interactions with conspecifics. The influence of the 'chameleon effect', targeted vs. generalised empathy, perspective-taking and visual attention on contagious yawning is discussed.

  12. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  13. Outbreak of Neisseria meningitidis C in workers at a large food-processing plant in Brazil: challenges of controlling disease spread to the larger community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iser, B P M; Lima, H C A V; de Moraes, C; de Almeida, R P A; Watanabe, L T; Alves, S L A; Lemos, A P S; Gorla, M C O; Gonçalves, M G; Dos Santos, D A; Sobel, J

    2012-05-01

    SUMMARYAn outbreak of meningococcal disease (MD) with severe morbidity and mortality was investigated in midwestern Brazil in order to identify control measures. A MD case was defined as isolation of Neisseria meningitidis, or detection of polysaccharide antigen in a sterile site, or presence of clinical purpura fulminans, or an epidemiological link with a laboratory-confirmed case-patient, between June and August 2008. In 8 out of 16 MD cases studied, serogroup C ST103 complex was identified. Five (31%) cases had neurological findings and five (31%) died. The attack rate was 12 cases/100 000 town residents and 60 cases/100 000 employees in a large local food-processing plant. We conducted a matched case-control study of eight primary laboratory-confirmed cases (1:4). Factors associated with illness in single variable analysis were work at the processing plant [matched odds ratio (mOR) 22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·3-207·7, P10 000 plant employees) stopped propagation in the plant, but not in the larger community.

  14. The creation of a contagious H5N1 influenza virus: implications for the education of life scientists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Novossiolova

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper contends that the ongoing controversy surrounding the creation of a contagious H5N1 influenza virus has already exposed the severe limitations of the possibility of preventing the hostile misuse of the life scien­ces by dint of oversight of proposals and publications. It further argues that in order to prevent the potential wholesale militarisation of the life sciences, it is essential that life scientists become aware of their responsibilities within the context of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC and actively contribute their expertise to strengthening the biological weapons non-proliferation regime.

  15. Detection of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto and Borrelia garinii DNAs in patient with Hyperkeratosis lenticularis perstans (Flegel disease)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schwarzova, K.; Kozub, P.; Szep, Z.; Golovchenko, Maryna; Rudenko, Natalia

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 61, č. 5 (2016), s. 359-363 ISSN 0015-5632 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : Lyme borreliosis * samples * complex Subject RIV: FN - Epidemiology, Contagious Diseases ; Clinical Immunology Impact factor: 1.521, year: 2016

  16. Control strategies for foot and mouth disease with particular ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a very contagious disease of mammals with a great potential for causing severe economic losses in susceptible cloven-hoofed animals. It is a trans-boundary animal disease, with seven serotypes and all the serotypes produce a disease that is clinically indistinguishable but ...

  17. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duan, W.; Quax, R.; Lees, M.; Qiu, X.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support

  18. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  19. Spreading of rock avalanches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamis, A.S.; Savage, S.G. [McGill Univ., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

    1985-07-01

    Landslides and rockfalls that initiate on a steep slope eventually come to rest after flowing for some runout distance on a flat. Rockfalls of very large masses have been observed to exhibit unexpectedly long runout distances. This problem becomes more significant as the development of resources in mountain regions becomes more intensive. As early as 1881, Albert Heim observed and described the Elm rockfall of Switzerland (quoted by as HsU). This rockfall produced a debris which moved more than 2 Km along a nearly horizontal valley floor and one of its branches surged up the side of the valley to a height of 100 m. From the deposit of the Elm and the eyewitnesses Heim concluded that the debris behaved as a flowing fluid rather than sliding solids. Davies, among others, suggested that the excessive runout distance is volume dependent and the larger the volume of the debris, the longer the relative travel distance. A summary of the numerous hypotheses which have been proposed to explain this puzzling phenomena were also presented by Davies. However, none of these have been completely satisfactory or generally accepted. A simple model of the flow and spreading of a finite mass of cohesionless granular material down incline has been developed as a part of the present preliminary investigation into the mechanics of rockfalls. (author)

  20. Spreading Depression, Spreading Depolarizations, and the Cerebral Vasculature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayata, Cenk; Lauritzen, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Spreading depression (SD) is a transient wave of near-complete neuronal and glial depolarization associated with massive transmembrane ionic and water shifts. It is evolutionarily conserved in the central nervous systems of a wide variety of species from locust to human. The depolarization spreads...

  1. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  2. Heat transfer and fire spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hal E. Anderson

    1969-01-01

    Experimental testing of a mathematical model showed that radiant heat transfer accounted for no more than 40% of total heat flux required to maintain rate of spread. A reasonable prediction of spread was possible by assuming a horizontal convective heat transfer coefficient when certain fuel and flame characteristics were known. Fuel particle size had a linear relation...

  3. Information spreading dynamics in hypernetworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suo, Qi; Guo, Jin-Li; Shen, Ai-Zhong

    2018-04-01

    Contact pattern and spreading strategy fundamentally influence the spread of information. Current mathematical methods largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed by networks. In fact, individuals are affected by all his/her neighbors in different social relationships. Here, we develop a mathematical approach to depict the information spreading process in hypernetworks. Each individual is viewed as a node, and each social relationship containing the individual is viewed as a hyperedge. Based on SIS epidemic model, we construct two spreading models. One model is based on global transmission, corresponding to RP strategy. The other is based on local transmission, corresponding to CP strategy. These models can degenerate into complex network models with a special parameter. Thus hypernetwork models extend the traditional models and are more realistic. Further, we discuss the impact of parameters including structure parameters of hypernetwork, spreading rate, recovering rate as well as information seed on the models. Propagation time and density of informed nodes can reveal the overall trend of information dissemination. Comparing these two models, we find out that there is no spreading threshold in RP, while there exists a spreading threshold in CP. The RP strategy induces a broader and faster information spreading process under the same parameters.

  4. Characteristics of cyprinid herpesvirus 3 in different phases of infection: implications for disease transmission and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunarto, Agus; McColl, Kenneth A; Crane, Mark St J; Schat, Karel A; Slobedman, Barry; Barnes, Andrew C; Walker, Peter J

    2014-08-08

    Koi herpesvirus disease (KHVD) is an emerging and highly contagious viral disease of koi and common carp (Cyprinus carpio), causing mass mortalities and huge economic losses to the carp aquaculture industry. The disease has spread rapidly to 28 countries worldwide. However, mechanisms of koi herpesvirus (species Cyprinid herpesvirus 3; CyHV-3) transmission remain unclear. A potential experimental model of CyHV-3 infection in carp was used to characterise CyHV-3 in different phases of infection and to demonstrate that CyHV-3 persists in survivor fish and has the capacity to reactivate and transmit the disease to healthy fish. During acute infection, which occurred when fish were maintained at 22°C, viral genes were abundantly expressed and infectious virus was produced in association with tissue damage, clinical disease and mortality. In fish maintained at a lower temperature (11°C), viral DNA was present but viral gene expression was absent or greatly restricted, infectious virus was not recovered and there was no evidence of disease. Productive replication was re-initiated following an increase in water temperature to 22°C, resulting in 45% mortality. Shedding of reactivated virus killed 75% of cohabitating naïve fish, suggesting a potential risk for disease transmission. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Target priority transboundary animal diseases and zoonoses in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Overall, Rift Valley fever had the highest rank, followed by Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia, Newcastle Disease, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, Lumpy Skin Disease, Peste des Petits des Ruminants, Rabies, Brucellosis, Bovine Tuberculosis, Foot-and Mouth Disease and Sheep and Goat Pox. In conclusion, the ...

  6. Retrospective analysis of Newcastle disease diagnosed at the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Newcastle disease (ND) is a highly contagious viral disease of domestic and wild birds with devastating impact on poultry health and production. Many vaccines and vaccination schedules are in use in controlling the disease but prevention and control are still a problem. A ten-year retrospective study (2002-2011) of ...

  7. The small world yields the most effective information spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lü Linyuan; Chen Duanbing; Zhou Tao

    2011-01-01

    The spreading dynamics of information and diseases are usually analyzed by using a unified framework and analogous models. In this paper, we propose a model to emphasize the essential difference between information spreading and epidemic spreading, where the memory effects, the social reinforcement and the non-redundancy of contacts are taken into account. Under certain conditions, the information spreads faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks, which to some extent supports the recent experimental observation of spreading in online society (Centola D 2010 Science 329 1194). At the same time, the simulation result indicates that the random networks tend to be favorable for effective spreading when the network size increases. This challenges the validity of the above-mentioned experiment for large-scale systems. More importantly, we show that the spreading effectiveness can be sharply enhanced by introducing a little randomness into the regular structure, namely the small-world networks yield the most effective information spreading. This work provides insights into the role of local clustering in information spreading. (paper)

  8. Did vaccination slow the spread of bluetongue in France?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryline Pioz

    Full Text Available Vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to control the spread of infectious diseases. Simulations are now widely used to assess how vaccination can limit disease spread as well as mitigate morbidity or mortality in susceptible populations. However, field studies investigating how much vaccines decrease the velocity of epizootic wave-fronts during outbreaks are rare. This study aimed at investigating the effect of vaccination on the propagation of bluetongue, a vector-borne disease of ruminants. We used data from the 2008 bluetongue virus serotype 1 (BTV-1 epizootic of southwest France. As the virus was newly introduced in this area, natural immunity of livestock was absent. This allowed determination of the role of vaccination in changing the velocity of bluetongue spread while accounting for environmental factors that possibly influenced it. The average estimated velocity across the country despite restriction on animal movements was 5.4 km/day, which is very similar to the velocity of spread of the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic in France also estimated in a context of restrictions on animal movements. Vaccination significantly reduced the propagation velocity of BTV-1. In comparison to municipalities with no vaccine coverage, the velocity of BTV-1 spread decreased by 1.7 km/day in municipalities with immunized animals. For the first time, the effect of vaccination has been quantified using data from a real epizootic whilst accounting for environmental factors known to modify the velocity of bluetongue spread. Our findings emphasize the importance of vaccination in limiting disease spread across natural landscape. Finally, environmental factors, specifically those related to vector abundance and activity, were found to be good predictors of the velocity of BTV-1 spread, indicating that these variables need to be adequately accounted for when evaluating the role of vaccination on bluetongue spread.

  9. Social networks and spreading of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

    2004-05-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

  10. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  11. Spreading gossip in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Pedro G.; da Silva, Luciano R.; Andrade, José S., Jr.; Herrmann, Hans J.

    2007-09-01

    We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

  12. Spread effects - methodology; Spredningseffekter - metodegrunnlag

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    Diffusion of technology, environmental effects and rebound effects are the principal effects from the funding of renewable energy and energy economising. It is difficult to estimate the impact of the spread effects both prior to the measures are implemented and after the measures are carried out. Statistical methods can be used to estimate the spread effects, but they are insecure and always need to be complemented with qualitative and subjective evaluations. It is more adequate to evaluate potential spread effects from market and market data surveillance for a selection of technologies and parties. Based on this information qualitative indicators for spread effects can be constructed and used both ex ante and ex post (ml)

  13. Spreading gossip in social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Pedro G; da Silva, Luciano R; Andrade, José S; Herrmann, Hans J

    2007-09-01

    We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

  14. Colonic motility and enema spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardy, J.G.; Wood, E.; Clark, A.G.; Reynolds, J.R.; Queen's Medical Centre, Nottingham

    1986-01-01

    Radiolabelled enema solution was administered to eight healthy subjects, both in fasted and fed states. Enema spreading was monitored over a 4-h period using gamma scintigraphy and colonic motility was recorded simultaneously using a pressure sensitive radiotelemetry capsule. The rate and extent of enema dispersion were unaffected by eating. Spreading could be correlated with colonic motility and was inhibited by aboral propulsion of the colonic contents. (orig.)

  15. Predicting infection risk of airborne foot-and-mouth disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schley, David; Burgin, Laura; Gloster, John

    2009-05-06

    Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals, the control and eradication of which is of significant worldwide socio-economic importance. The virus may spread by direct contact between animals or via fomites as well as through airborne transmission, with the latter being the most difficult to control. Here, we consider the risk of infection to flocks or herds from airborne virus emitted from a known infected premises. We show that airborne infection can be predicted quickly and with a good degree of accuracy, provided that the source of virus emission has been determined and reliable geo-referenced herd data are available. A simple model provides a reliable tool for estimating risk from known sources and for prioritizing surveillance and detection efforts. The issue of data information management systems was highlighted as a lesson to be learned from the official inquiry into the UK 2007 foot-and-mouth outbreak: results here suggest that the efficacy of disease control measures could be markedly improved through an accurate livestock database incorporating flock/herd size and location, which would enable tactical as well as strategic modelling.

  16. Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fierro, Annalisa; Liccardo, Antonella

    2013-01-01

    Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.

  17. Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalisa Fierro

    Full Text Available Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1 epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI. We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious

  18. The contagious nature of imprisonment: an agent-based model to explain racial disparities in incarceration rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lum, Kristian; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen; Hawdon, James

    2014-09-06

    We build an agent-based model of incarceration based on the susceptible-infected-suspectible (SIS) model of infectious disease propagation. Our central hypothesis is that the observed racial disparities in incarceration rates between Black and White Americans can be explained as the result of differential sentencing between the two demographic groups. We demonstrate that if incarceration can be spread through a social influence network, then even relatively small differences in sentencing can result in large disparities in incarceration rates. Controlling for effects of transmissibility, susceptibility and influence network structure, our model reproduces the observed large disparities in incarceration rates given the differences in sentence lengths for White and Black drug offenders in the USA without extensive parameter tuning. We further establish the suitability of the SIS model as applied to incarceration by demonstrating that the observed structural patterns of recidivism are an emergent property of the model. In fact, our model shows a remarkably close correspondence with California incarceration data. This work advances efforts to combine the theories and methods of epidemiology and criminology.

  19. Disease: H00372 [KEGG MEDICUS

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available H00372 Smallpox; Variola Smallpox is a contagious disease caused by the variola vi...al varieties of smallpox: variola major with a case fatality rate of 30% and variola minor with milder severity. Smallpox... millions of people. Infectious disease ... Variola virus [GN:T40082] ... Smallpox vaccine [DR:D05295] ... ICD-10: ...URNAL ... Dev Biol Stand 100:31-7 (1999) ... PMID:9795781 (description, env_factor) ... AUTHORS ... Ellner PD ... TITLE ... Smallpox

  20. Physical Proximity and Spreading in Dynamic Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Stopczynski, Arkadiusz; Pentland, Alex Sandy; Lehmann, Sune

    2015-01-01

    Most infectious diseases spread on a dynamic network of human interactions. Recent studies of social dynamics have provided evidence that spreading patterns may depend strongly on detailed micro-dynamics of the social system. We have recorded every single interaction within a large population, mapping out---for the first time at scale---the complete proximity network for a densely-connected system. Here we show the striking impact of interaction-distance on the network structure and dynamics ...

  1. An Overview of Head and Neck Malignancy with Perineural Spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panizza, Benedict J

    2016-04-01

    This article provides an overview of perineural spread of head and neck malignancy. It defines the problem and explores some of the unique features, which occur with this pathology. The expectation is for a better understanding of this extraordinary disease, hopefully leading to earlier diagnosis and for a more consistent reporting of results. It summarizes the topics to be covered in this special edition, which should leave the reader with a fairly complete understanding of the contemporary issues of perineural spread.

  2. Spread of H1N1 within Households

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-03-29

    This podcast describes an investigation into how H1N1 was spreading within households during the initial days of the pandemic in Texas. CDC's Dr. Oliver Morgan discusses what investigators learned about the role that children played in introducing the virus into households and spreading flu.  Created: 3/29/2010 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 3/29/2010.

  3. Contagious agalactia by Mycoplasma agalactiae in small ruminants in Brazil: first report Agalaxia contagiosa por Mycoplasma agalactiae em pequenos ruminantes no Brasil: primeiro relato

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edisio Oliveira de Azevedo

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Two outbreaks of contagious agalactia by Mycoplasma agalactiae occurred in Paraíba State, Northeastern Region of Brazil are reported. The disease was characterized by mastitis, agalactia and polyarthritis in does and polyarthritis and conjunctivitis in kids and lambs. Fever and anorexia were also observed. Morbidy was from 26.1% to 100% in does, 36.5 to 100% in kids and 49% in lambs. In one farm 14.3% of the lactating goats and 6.4% of the kids died or were euthanized. In the other, 3.3% of the does, 36.5% of the kids and 22.9% of the lambs died and 84 affected goats were euthanized to control the disease. M. agalactiae was isolated from milk, joint exudates, nasal swabs and ear washings. The colonies were characteristic of Mycoplasma and the agent did not ferment both glucose and arginin. It was typed as Mycoplasma agalactiae by immunoperoxidase and PCR. This is the first report of M. agalactiae infection in Brazil, but the source of the infection remains unknown.Dois surtos de agalaxia contagiosa causada por Mycoplasma agalactiae são descritos no Estado da Paraíba, região Nordeste do Brasil. A doença caracterizou-se por mastite, agalaxia e poliartrite em cabras e poliartrite e cerato-conjuntivite em cabritos e cordeiros. Febre e anorexia também foram observadas. A morbidade variou de 26,1% a 100% nas cabras, 36,5% a 100% em cabritos e 49,0% em cordeiros. Na primeira fazenda, 14,3% das cabras em lactação e 6,4% dos cabritos morreram ou foram sacrificados. Na outra propriedade, 3,3% dos caprinos adultos, 36,5% dos cabritos e 22,9% dos cordeiros morreram e outros 84 caprinos foram sacrificados para controle da doença. M. agalactiae foi isolado a partir de leite, líquido articular, suabe nasal e lavado do conduto auditivo externo. Colônias características de Mycoplasma e que não fermentaram a glicose e arginina foram observadas. A identificação de M. agalactiae foi realizada por imunoperoxidase indireta e PCR. Sendo assim, M

  4. Six Tips to Help Prevent the Spread of Norovirus

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2013-08-27

    Dr. Aron Hall, a CDC epidemiologist specializing in noroviruses, discusses six tips to help prevent the spread of norovirus.  Created: 8/27/2013 by National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), Division of Viral Diseases (DVD).   Date Released: 8/27/2013.

  5. Information Spreading in Epidemics and in Communication Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uekermann, Florian Philipp

    The PhD thesis revolves mainly around models of disease spreading and human behavior. We present models for different epidemic patterns of infectious diseases. This includes investigations of the trajectory of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West-Africa, influenza evolution and the seasonal dynamics...

  6. Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulahi Alfonso-Morales

    Full Text Available Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV; it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV strains.Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2 gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST, Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium in 1987, Africa (Egypt around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba by 1995 and South America (Brazil around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection.To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide.

  7. Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonso-Morales, Abdulahi; Martínez-Pérez, Orlando; Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J

    2013-01-01

    Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide.

  8. Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

    2017-02-01

    The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

  9. Effects on goat milk quality of the presence of Mycoplasma spp. in herds without symptoms of contagious agalactia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fe, Christian; Sánchez, Antonio; Gutierrez, Aldo; Contreras, Antonio; Carlos Corrales, Juan; Assunçao, Patricia; Poveda, Carlos; Poveda, José B

    2009-02-01

    This study was designed to assess the possible effects of mycoplasmas on the quality of milk produced by goat herds in a contagious agalactia (CA) endemic area with absence of classical symptoms. Several factors related to milk quality (percentages of fat, total protein, lactose and total solids, standard plate counts (SPC) and presence of Staphylococcus aureus) were compared in mycoplasma-infected and non-infected herds. To define the CA status of 26 herds on the island of Lanzarote (Spain), where CA is endemic, 570 individual milk samples and 266 bulk tank milk (BTM) samples were microbiologically analysed for the presence of Mycoplasma spp. A herd was considered infected by mycoplasmas when at least a sample (individual or BTM) was positive. BTM samples were also used to determine milk quality parameters. Mycoplasma infection was confirmed in 13 herds. A total of 31, 10 and 11 strains of Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides LC (MmmLC), Mp. agalactiae and Mp. capricolum subsp. capricolum were isolated. No significant differences were observed between the least square means of the variables fat, total protein, lactose and total solids or SPC recorded for the infected v. non-infected herds. The Staph. aureus status of a herd was also found to be independent of the presence of Mycoplasma spp. Our findings indicate that neither the presence of mycoplasmas in a goat herd with absence of classical symptoms seem to compromise the quality of the BTM.

  10. Spreading dynamics in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A.

    2013-12-01

    Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality.

  11. Spreading dynamics in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A

    2013-01-01

    Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality. (paper)

  12. Dual polarized, heat spreading rectenna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epp, Larry W. (Inventor); Khan, Abdur R. (Inventor); Smith, R. Peter (Inventor); Smith, Hugh K. (Inventor)

    1999-01-01

    An aperture coupled patch splits energy from two different polarization components to different locations to spread heat. In addition, there is no physical electrical connection between the slot, patch and circuitry. The circuitry is located under a ground plane which shields against harmonic radiation back to the RF source.

  13. Genetic evolution of Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae strains and molecular epidemiology of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia by sequencing of locus H2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzon, S; Wesonga, H; Ygesu, Laikemariam; Tekleghiorgis, Tesfaalem; Maikano, Y; Angaya, M; Hendrikx, P; Thiaucourt, F

    2002-03-01

    Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) is a major threat to goat farming in developing countries. Its exact distribution is not well known, despite the fact that new diagnostic tools such as PCR and competitive ELISA are now available. The authors developed a study of the molecular epidemiology of the disease, based on the amplification of a 2400 bp long fragment containing two duplicated gene coding for a putative membrane protein. The sequence of this fragment, obtained on 19 Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae (Mccp) strains from various geographical locations, gave 11 polymorphic positions. The three mutations found on gene H2prim were silent and did not appear to induce any amino acid modifications in the putative translated protein. The second gene may be a pseudogene not translated in vivo, as it bore a deletion of the ATG codon found in the other members of the "Mycoplasma mycoides cluster" and as the six mutations evidenced in the Mccp strains would induce modifications in the translated amino acids. In addition, an Mccp strain isolated in the United Arab Emirates showed a deletion of the whole pseudogene, a further indication that this gene is not compulsory for mycoplasma growth. Four lineages were defined, based on the nucleotide sequence. These correlated relatively well with the geographical origin of the strains: North, Central or East Africa. The strain of Turkish origin had a sequence similar to that found in North African strains, while strains isolated in Oman had sequences similar to those of North or East African strains. The latter is possibly due to the regular import of goats of various origins. Similar molecular epidemiology tools have been developed by sequencing the two operons of the 16S rRNA gene or by AFLP. All these various techniques give complementary results. One (16S rRNA) offers the likelihood of a finer identification of strains circulating in a region, another (H2) of determining the geographical origin of the

  14. Foot-and-mouth disease in Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Officer, Kirsty; Lan, Nguyen Thi; Wicker, Leanne; Hoa, Nguyen Thi; Weegenaar, Annemarie; Robinson, Jill; Ryoji, Yamaguchi; Loukopoulos, Panayiotis

    2014-09-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious, debilitating, and globally significant viral disease typically affecting cloven-hoofed hosts. The diagnosis of FMD in bears in Vietnam is described. The current study describes a confirmed case of FMD in a bear species, and the clinical signs compatible with FMD in a Malayan sun bear. Thirteen Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) and 1 Malayan sun bear (Helarctos malayanus) were apparently affected. In August 2011, an adult bear became lethargic, and developed footpad vesicles. Over 15 days, 14 out of 17 bears developed similar signs; the remaining 3 co-housed bears and another 57 resident bears did not. All affected bears developed vesicles on all footpads, and most were lethargic for 24-48 hr. Nasal and oral lesions were noted in 6 and 3 cases, respectively. Within 1 month, all looked normal. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) was detected by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, classified as serotype O, and isolated by virus isolation techniques. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated clustering of 3 bear isolates, in a branch distinct from other FMDV type O isolates. The outbreak likely occurred due to indirect contact with livestock, and was facilitated by the high density of captive bears. It showed that Asiatic black bears are capable of contracting FMDV and developing clinical disease, and that the virus spreads easily between bears in close contact. © 2014 The Author(s).

  15. 9 CFR 93.313 - Appearance of disease among horses in quarantine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Appearance of disease among horses in...; REQUIREMENTS FOR MEANS OF CONVEYANCE AND SHIPPING CONTAINERS Horses § 93.313 Appearance of disease among horses in quarantine. If any contagious disease appears among horses during the quarantine period special...

  16. 25 CFR 700.723 - Control of livestock disease and parasites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Control of livestock disease and parasites. 700.723... RELOCATION PROCEDURES New Lands Grazing § 700.723 Control of livestock disease and parasites. Whenever livestock within the New Lands become infected with contagious or infectious disease or parasites or have...

  17. Foot and mouth disease virus in different host species; the effect of vaccination on transmission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orsel, K.

    2007-01-01

    Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a contagious disease, affecting important livestock species like cattle, sheep and pigs. Therefore, FMD is listed as a notifiable disease to the Office International des Epizooties. The outbreaks of FMD in Europe in 2001 triggered the discussion about the use of

  18. Foot-and-mouth disease sero-surveillance in Africa and vaccine matching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekleghiorghis Sebhatu, T.

    2014-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) was the first animal pathogen to be identified as a virus, and today, more than a century later, it remains at the forefront of major animal diseases. It is a very contagious disease and affects cloven-hoofed domestic and wild animals, mostly cattle, swine, sheep,

  19. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  20. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  1. Surgical Management of Perineural Spread of Head and Neck Cancers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solares, C Arturo; Mason, Eric; Panizza, Benedict J

    2016-04-01

    The surgical management of perineural spread of head and neck cancers has become an integral part in the contemporary treatment of this pathology. We now understand that tumour spreads within the epineurium and in a continuous fashion. We also can rely on the accuracy of magnetic resonance neurography in detecting and defining the extent of disease. With modern skull base techniques and a greater understanding of the anatomy in this region, specific operations can be designed to help eradicate disease. We review the current approaches and techniques used that enable us to better obtain tumour free margins and hence improve survival.

  2. Spreading of a granular droplet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Eric; Sanchez, Ivan; Raynaud, Franck; Lanuza, Jose; Andreotti, Bruno; Aranson, Igor

    2008-03-01

    The influence of controlled vibrations on the granular rheology is investigated in a specifically designed experiment in which a granular film spreads under the action of horizontal vibrations. A nonlinear diffusion equation is derived theoretically that describes the evolution of the deposit shape. A self-similar parabolic shape (the``granular droplet'') and a spreading dynamics are predicted that both agree quantitatively with the experimental results. The theoretical analysis is used to extract effective friction coefficients between the base and the granular layer under sustained and controlled vibrations. A shear thickening regime characteristic of dense granular flows is evidenced at low vibration energy, both for glass beads and natural sand. Conversely, shear thinning is observed at high agitation.

  3. Suppressing epidemic spreading in multiplex networks with social-support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaolong; Wang, Ruijie; Tang, Ming; Cai, Shimin; Stanley, H. Eugene; Braunstein, Lidia A.

    2018-01-01

    Although suppressing the spread of a disease is usually achieved by investing in public resources, in the real world only a small percentage of the population have access to government assistance when there is an outbreak, and most must rely on resources from family or friends. We study the dynamics of disease spreading in social-contact multiplex networks when the recovery of infected nodes depends on resources from healthy neighbors in the social layer. We investigate how degree heterogeneity affects the spreading dynamics. Using theoretical analysis and simulations we find that degree heterogeneity promotes disease spreading. The phase transition of the infected density is hybrid and increases smoothly from zero to a finite small value at the first invasion threshold and then suddenly jumps at the second invasion threshold. We also find a hysteresis loop in the transition of the infected density. We further investigate how an overlap in the edges between two layers affects the spreading dynamics. We find that when the amount of overlap is smaller than a critical value the phase transition is hybrid and there is a hysteresis loop, otherwise the phase transition is continuous and the hysteresis loop vanishes. In addition, the edge overlap allows an epidemic outbreak when the transmission rate is below the first invasion threshold, but suppresses any explosive transition when the transmission rate is above the first invasion threshold.

  4. Drop Spreading with Random Viscosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Feng; Jensen, Oliver

    2016-11-01

    Airway mucus acts as a barrier to protect the lung. However as a biological material, its physical properties are known imperfectly and can be spatially heterogeneous. In this study we assess the impact of these uncertainties on the rate of spreading of a drop (representing an inhaled aerosol) over a mucus film. We model the film as Newtonian, having a viscosity that depends linearly on the concentration of a passive solute (a crude proxy for mucin proteins). Given an initial random solute (and hence viscosity) distribution, described as a Gaussian random field with a given correlation structure, we seek to quantify the uncertainties in outcomes as the drop spreads. Using lubrication theory, we describe the spreading of the drop in terms of a system of coupled nonlinear PDEs governing the evolution of film height and the vertically-averaged solute concentration. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to predict the variability in the drop centre location and width (1D) or area (2D). We show how simulation results are well described (at much lower computational cost) by a low-order model using a weak disorder expansion. Our results show for example how variability in the drop location is a non-monotonic function of the solute correlation length increases. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

  5. Slip of Spreading Viscoplastic Droplets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalaal, Maziyar; Balmforth, Neil J; Stoeber, Boris

    2015-11-10

    The spreading of axisymmetric viscoplastic droplets extruded slowly on glass surfaces is studied experimentally using shadowgraphy and swept-field confocal microscopy. The microscopy furnishes vertical profiles of the radial velocity using particle image velocimetry (PIV) with neutrally buoyant tracers seeded in the fluid. Experiments were conducted for two complex fluids: aqueous solutions of Carbopol and xanthan gum. On untreated glass surfaces, PIV demonstrates that both fluids experience a significant amount of effective slip. The experiments were repeated on glass that had been treated to feature positive surface charges, thereby promoting adhesion between the negatively charged polymeric constituents of the fluids and the glass surface. The Carbopol and xanthan gum droplets spread more slowly on the treated surface and to a smaller radial distance. PIV demonstrated that this reduced spreading was associated with a substantial reduction in slip. For Carbopol, the effective slip could be eliminated entirely to within the precision of the PIV measurements; the reduction in slip was less effective for xanthan gum, with a weak slip velocity remaining noticeable.

  6. Lyme Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... spread to the nervous system, causing facial paralysis ( Bell's palsy ), or meningitis. The last stage of Lyme disease ... My Lyme Disease Risk? Bug Bites and Stings Bell's Palsy Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever Meningitis View more About ...

  7. Fifth disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvovirus B19; Erythema infectiosum; Slapped cheek rash ... Fifth disease is caused by human parvovirus B19. It often affects preschoolers or school-age children during the spring. The disease spreads through the fluids in the nose and mouth ...

  8. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  9. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  10. Certainties and Uncertainties Facing Emerging Respiratory Infectious Diseases: Lessons from SARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yee-Chun Chen

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Every emerging infectious disease is a challenge to the whole of mankind. There are uncertainties regarding whether there will be a pandemic, if it will be caused by the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus, when or where it will occur, how imminent or how severe it will be. No one can accurately predict if and when a given virus will become a pandemic virus. Pandemic prevention strategies must be based on preparing for the unexpected and being capable of reacting accordingly. There is growing evidence that infection control measures were helpful in containment of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS as well as avian influenza. Compliance of standard infection control measures, intensive promotion of hand and respiratory hygiene, vigilance and triage of patients with febrile illness, and specific infection control measures are key components to contain a highly contagious disease in hospital and to protect healthcare workers, patients and visitors. The importance of standard precautions for any patient and cleaning and disinfection for the healthcare environment cannot be overemphasized. SARS illustrated dramatically the potential of air travel and globalization for the dissemination of an emerging infectious disease. To prevent the potential serious consequences of pandemic influenza, timely implementation of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions locally within the outbreak area is the key to minimizing global spread. Herein, we relate our perspective on useful lessons derived from a review of the SARS epidemic that may be useful to physicians, especially when looking ahead to the next epidemic.

  11. Reverse preferential spread in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyoizumi, Hiroshi; Tani, Seiichi; Miyoshi, Naoto; Okamoto, Yoshio

    2012-08-01

    Large-degree nodes may have a larger influence on the network, but they can be bottlenecks for spreading information since spreading attempts tend to concentrate on these nodes and become redundant. We discuss that the reverse preferential spread (distributing information inversely proportional to the degree of the receiving node) has an advantage over other spread mechanisms. In large uncorrelated networks, we show that the mean number of nodes that receive information under the reverse preferential spread is an upper bound among any other weight-based spread mechanisms, and this upper bound is indeed a logistic growth independent of the degree distribution.

  12. Preoperative evaluation of locally spreaded pelvic tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baramia, M.; Todua, F.; Gotsadze, D.; Khutulashvili, N.; Lashkhi, K.; Nadareishvili, A.

    1998-01-01

    Am of the study: preoperative evaluation of patients with locally advanced pelvic tumors subjected to pelvic exenteration. Determine operability to avoid explorative laparatomies, which cause serious complications in these patients. Evaluate condition of urinary system in case of this pathology. Materials and methods: 34 patients with locally advanced pelvic tumors where pelvic exenteration was attempted were studied. Along with other methods of diagnostic CT and MRI were performed. Results: In all patients secondary involvement of the urinary bladder was noted. In 30 patients CT and MR findings were confirmed (88,2%) intraoperatively and different types of pelvic organs exenteration were performed. In 1 case spread of tomoruos infiltrate to the pelvic wall and common iliac vessels was detected intraoperatively (patient had history of radiation therapy). In 2 cases carcinomatosis of the peritoneum was found. In 1 case involvement of urinary bladder was simulated by close attachment of enlarged uterus. Conclusion: Obtained results show, that CT and MR are highly informative methods of disease spread evaluation and thus determining operability. Radiotherapy performed prior to operation sets difficulties in differentiation for tumourous infiltrate and post-radiotherapy changes in pelvis. (Full text)

  13. A lattice model for influenza spreading.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Liccardo

    Full Text Available We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the dynamic contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and moves on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site, allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The dynamics on the lattice is governed by an attractive interaction between individuals belonging to the same age-class. The parameters, which regulate the pattern dynamics, are fixed fitting the data on the age-dependent daily contact numbers, furnished by the Polymod survey. A simple SIR transmission model with a nearest neighbors interaction and some very basic adaptive mobility restrictions complete the model. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1 during the [Formula: see text] season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters. For an appropriate topology of the lattice, we find that, whenever the accordance between the contact patterns of the model and the Polymod data is satisfactory, there is a good agreement between the numerical and the experimental epidemiological data. This result shows how rich is the information encoded in the average contact patterns of individuals, with respect to the analysis of the epidemic spreading of an infectious disease.

  14. Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

    2016-04-01

    We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

  15. Don't Get, Don't Spread: Seasonal Flu

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-09-29

    In this podcast, Dr. Joe Bresee describes how to keep from getting the seasonal flu and spreading it to others.  Created: 9/29/2010 by National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 9/29/2010.

  16. Scabies, a Zoonotic Disease : Present and Future Challenge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    April H Wardhana

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Scabies is a contagious skin disease caused by a mite of Sarcoptes scabiei . It is found worldwide particularly in regions related with of poverty, remote area, poor sanitations and nutritional status in both human and animals . Scabies is transmitted by direct contact . The clinical signs are intensive pruritis or itchiness, erythrema, papula and vesicle . Infestation S. scabiei caused damage skin and raised animal death (50 - 100% while 300 millions people per year were reported to suffer from scabies . Diagnosis of scabies is based on clinical signs and confirmed with gently scrapping the skin off burrow (seeking for eggs, faecals and mites . Beside that, the diagnosis can be obtained by ink test, mineral oil or fluorescence tetracycline test . ELISA method for detecting human scabies still has a disadvantage because there is a cross-reaction between host skin and var . S. scabiei antigens . The development of scabies vaccine also has many problems . Some human scabies cases were suspected from their livestock or pet animals . It is required a good and synergic collaboration between both health and livestock agencies that involved both human and vet medicals, investigators, quarantine staffs including researchers. Those factors become a challenge at present and in the future to prevent the spreading of scabies to a larger area and to minimize scabies cases in both human and animal, particularly in the endemic area .

  17. Plume spread and atmospheric stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, R O [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    The horizontal spread of a plume in atmospheric dispersion can be described by the standard deviation of horizontal direction. The widely used Pasquill-Gifford classes of atmospheric stability have assigned typical values of the standard deviation of horizontal wind direction and of the lapse rate. A measured lapse rate can thus be used to estimate the standard deviation of wind direction. It is examined by means of a large dataset of fast wind measurements how good these estimates are. (author) 1 fig., 2 refs.

  18. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  19. Hand hygiene practices post ebola virus disease outbreak in a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a highly contagious viral infection that requires a high risk perception and practice of good hand hygiene by regular hand washing or use of hand sanitizers for infection control at all time. The declaration of Nigeria as an Ebola-free country by the World Health Organization on the ...

  20. Emerging human infectious diseases: anthroponoses, zoonoses, and sapronoses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hubálek, Zdeněk

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 3 (2003), s. 403-404 ISSN 1080-6040 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK6005114 Keywords : zoonoses Subject RIV: FN - Epidemiology, Contagious Diseases ; Clinical Immunology Impact factor: 5.340, year: 2003 http://www.cdc.gov.ncidod/EID/vol9no3/02-0208-app.htm

  1. Detection of Foot and mouth disease virus infected pigs still RT-PCR positive four weeks after challenge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orsel, K.; Roest, H.I.J.; Elzinga-Bril, E.M.; Hemert-Kluitenberg, van F.; Dekker, A.

    2008-01-01

    FOOT-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals including ruminants and pigs. The occurrence of disease in livestock has a great economic impact, especially for exporting countries. Export limitations are based partly on the existence of FMD carrier animals.

  2. Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dicksion, Mark; Lagorio, Cecilia; Vazquez, F.; Braunstein, L.; Macri, P. A.; Migueles, M. V.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2011-03-01

    We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w, and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold wc separating a phase (w =wc) where the disease does not spread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation, and that wc increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that wc is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes.

  3. Emergence and spreading potential of Zika virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Fajardo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV is an arthropod-borne Flavivirus (family Flaviviridae closely related to dengue, yellow fever and West Nile viruses. ZIKV remained neglected, confined to enzootic transmission cycles in Africa and Asia, until the first significant outbreak was reported in Micronesia in 2007. Subsequent epidemics of growing incidence occurred in French Polynesia and other South Pacific Islands, and recently, in the Americas. The latter and currently ongoing outbreak of unprecedented incidence revealed the association of ZIKV infection with the occurrence of severe congenital malformations and neurological diseases, leading to a widespread concern about its potential to pose a global public health threat. Serological and molecular data suggest that the genetic and geographic diversification of ZIKV may be greatly underestimated. Here we discuss several ecological and epidemiological aspects, together with the evolutionary processes that may have driven the emergence and abrupt spread of ZIKV in the Americas.

  4. Coding-Spreading Tradeoff in CDMA Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bolas, Eduardo

    2002-01-01

    .... Comparing different combinations of coding and spreading with a traditional DS-CDMA, as defined in the IS-95 standard, allows the criteria to be defined for the best coding-spreading tradeoff in CDMA systems...

  5. Lexical Ambiguity: Making a Case against Spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Jennifer J.; Rogness, Neal T.; Fisher, Diane G.

    2012-01-01

    We argue for decreasing the use of the word "spread" when describing the statistical idea of dispersion or variability in introductory statistics courses. In addition, we argue for increasing the use of the word "variability" as a replacement for "spread."

  6. Sero-prevalence and associated risk factors of peste des petits ruminants and contagious caprine pleuro-pneumonia in goats and sheep in the Southern Zone of Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbyuzi, Albano O; Komba, Erick V G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I; Kambarage, Dominic M

    2014-09-01

    A retrospective Sero-prevalence analysis was conducted in 2012 in order to find out whether contagious caprine pleuro-pneumonia (CCPP) and peste des petits ruminants (PPR) had already been introduced in Mtwara and Lindi regions of Southern Tanzania by 2007 and 2009. A total of 477 randomly selected sera from a bank of 3500 small ruminant samples that were collected as part of Rift Valley Fever surveillance of 2007 in Mtwara and Lindi regions were used in this study. Seroconversion was also evaluated in the 504 sera that were collected in 2009 as part of disease outbreak investigations in Tandahimba and Newala districts of Mtwara region. Seroconversions to CCPP and PPR were tested using competitive ELISA. In addition, information on different variables available in the existing surveillance forms gathered during sampling was used in the analysis of risk factors associated with seropositivity to the two diseases. The overall seroprevalence of CCPP for the sera of 2007 and 2009 in goats was 52.1% (n=447) and 35.5% (n=434) respectively; while in sheep the seroprevalence was 36.7% (n=30) and 22.9% (n=70) respectively. Seroconversion to PPR in goats and sheep was 28.7% (n=434) and 35.7% (n=70) respectively based on the sera of 2009. However, no antibodies were detected in the 2007 sera. Mixed infections were detected in 7.4% (n=434) of the goat and 12.9% (n=70) of sheep samples. Significant risk factors associated with seropositivity to CCPP in 2007 included introduction of new animals in flocks (OR=3.94; 95% CI 1.86-8.36; p<0.001) and raising animals in government farms (OR=4.92; 95% CI 1.57-15.76; p=0.02); whereas, seropositivity to CCPP in 2009 increased with introduction of new animals in flocks (OR=18.82; 95% CI 8.06-43.96; p<0.001), raising animals in government farms (OR=4.04; 95% CI 2.69-6.42; p<0.001) and raising animals in Newala district (OR=2.35; 95% CI 1.53-3.62; p<0.001). On the other hand, predictors for seropositivity to PPR in 2009 were introduction of

  7. Hydroclimatological And Anthropogenic Drivers For Cholera Spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, Lorenzo; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Casagrandi, Renato; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    The nature of waterborne diseases, among which cholera has a prominent importance, calls for a better understanding of the link between epidemic spreading, water and climate. To this end, we have developed a framework which involves a network-based description of a river system, connected with local communities which act as nodes of the network. This has allowed us to produce consistent simulations of real case studies. More recent investigations comprise the evaluation of the spreading velocity of an epidemic wave by means of a reaction-diffusion modeling approach. In particular, we have found that both transport processes and epidemiological quantities, such as the basic reproduction number, have a crucial effect in controlling the spreading of the epidemics. We first developed a description of bacterial movement along the network driven by advection and diffusion; afterward, we have included the movement of human populations. This latter model allowed us to establish the conditions that can trigger epidemic waves that start from the coastal region, where bacteria are autochthonous, and travel inland. In particular, our findings suggest that even relatively low values of human diffusion can have the epidemic propagate upstream. The interaction between climate, hydrology and epidemic events is still much debated, since no clear correlation between climatologic and epidemiological phenomena has emerged so far. However, a spatial assessment of hydrological and epidemiological mechanisms could be crucial to understand the evolution of cholera outbreaks. In particular, a hotly debated topic is the understanding of the mechanisms that can generate patterns of cholera incidence that exhibit an intra-annual double peak, as frequently observed in endemic region such as Bangladesh. One of the possible explanations proposed in the literature is that spring droughts cause bacteria concentration in water to rise dramatically, triggering the first peak. On the other hand

  8. Computer simulation to support policy-making in Aujeszky's disease control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buijtels, J.A.A.M.

    1997-01-01

    Aujeszky's disease is a contagious viral disease that affects the central nervous system of pigs. Several eradication programs or measures are available, each of them providing different results. Determining the preferred strategy is to a large extent a matter of economic

  9. A Deep Insight Into the Sialotranscriptome of the Chagas Disease Vector, Panstrongylus megistus (Hemiptera: Heteroptera)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ribeiro, J.M.C.; Schwarz, Alexandra; Francischetti, I.M.B.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 52, č. 3 (2015), s. 351-358 ISSN 0022-2585 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LH12002; GA ČR GPP302/11/P798 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : Chagas disease * vector biology * salivary gland * transcriptome * medical entomology Subject RIV: FN - Epidemiology, Contagious Diseases ; Clinical Immunology Impact factor: 1.712, year: 2015

  10. North Atlantic weather oscillation and human infectious diseases in the Czech Republic, 1951-2003

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hubálek, Zdeněk

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 3 (2005), s. 263-270 ISSN 0393-2990 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA206/03/0726 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : climate change * cluster analysis * human infectious diseases Subject RIV: FN - Epidemiology, Contagious Diseases ; Clinical Immunology Impact factor: 1.361, year: 2005

  11. Characterization of epitope-tagged foot-and-mouth disease virus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seago, J.; Jackson, T.; Doel, C.; Fry, E.; Stuart, D.; Harmsen, M.M.; Charleston, B.; Juleff, N.

    2012-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically devastating disease of cloven-hoofed animals with an almost-worldwide distribution. Conventional FMD vaccines consisting of chemically inactivated viruses have aided in the eradication of FMD from Europe and remain the main tool

  12. Control of vector-borne infectious diseases by human immunity against α-Gal

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cabezas-Cruz, A.; Valdés, James J.; de la Fuente, J.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 8 (2016), s. 953-955 ISSN 1476-0584 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 278976 - ANTIGONE Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : microbiota * probiotics * vaccine * α-Gal * vector-borne diseases Subject RIV: FN - Epidemiology, Contagious Diseases ; Clinical Immunology Impact factor: 3.555, year: 2016

  13. SNP discovery and marker development for disease resistance candidate genes in common carp (Cyprinus carpio)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in immune response genes have been reported as markers of susceptibility to infectious diseases in human and livestock. A disease caused by cyprinid herpes virus 3 (CyHV-3) is highly contagious and virulent in common carp. With the aim to investigate the gene...

  14. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  15. Cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiang; Chen, Shihua; Wu, Xiaoqun; Ning, Di; Lu, Jun-An

    2016-06-01

    This study is concerned with the dynamic behaviors of epidemic spreading in multiplex networks. A model composed of two interacting complex networks is proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes, wherein the virus spreading in one layer can penetrate into the other to promote the spreading process. The global epidemic threshold of the model is smaller than the epidemic thresholds of the corresponding isolated networks. Thus, global epidemic onset arises in the interacting networks even though an epidemic onset does not arise in each isolated network. Simulations verify the analysis results and indicate that cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks enhance the final infection fraction.

  16. Bank Lending, Housing and Spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslam, Aqib; Santoro, Emiliano

    The framework presented in this paper takes its cue from recent financial events and attempts to develop a tractable framework for policy analysis of macro-linkages, in particular a first attempt at the integration of an independent profit-maximising banking sector that lends to and borrows from...... agents in the economy, and through which changes in the monetary policy rate by the central bank are transmitted. The inter-linkages between housing and the role of the banking sector in the transmission of monetary policy is emphasized. Two competing effects are highlighted: (i) a financial accelerator...... channel, due to the presence of collateralized borrowers, and (ii) a banking attenuator effect, which crucially arises from the spread in interest rates caused by the introduction of monopolistically competitive financial intermediaries. We show how the classical amplification mechanism explored in models...

  17. Systematic review of management strategies to control chronic wasting disease in wild deer populations in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uehlinger, F D; Johnston, A C; Bollinger, T K; Waldner, C L

    2016-08-22

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious, fatal prion disease affecting cervids in a growing number of regions across North America. Projected deer population declines and concern about potential spread of CWD to other species warrant strategies to manage this disease. Control efforts to date have been largely unsuccessful, resulting in continuing spread and increasing prevalence. This systematic review summarizes peer-reviewed published reports describing field-applicable CWD control strategies in wild deer populations in North America using systematic review methods. Ten databases were searched for peer-reviewed literature. Following deduplication, relevance screening, full-text appraisal, subject matter expert review and qualitative data extraction, nine references were included describing four distinct management strategies. Six of the nine studies used predictive modeling to evaluate control strategies. All six demonstrated one or more interventions to be effective but results were dependant on parameters and assumptions used in the model. Three found preferential removal of CWD infected deer to be effective in reducing CWD prevalence; one model evaluated a test and slaughter strategy, the other selective removal of infected deer by predators and the third evaluated increased harvest of the sex with highest prevalence (males). Three models evaluated non-selective harvest of deer. There were only three reports that examined primary data collected as part of observational studies. Two of these studies supported the effectiveness of intensive non-selective culling; the third study did not find a difference between areas that were subjected to culling and those that were not. Seven of the nine studies were conducted in the United States. This review highlights the paucity of evaluated, field-applicable control strategies for CWD in wild deer populations. Knowledge gaps in the complex epidemiology of CWD and the intricacies inherent to prion diseases currently

  18. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  19. Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

    2009-03-01

    The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

  20. Potential corridors and barriers for plague spread in central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Plague (Yersinia pestis infection) is a vector-borne disease which caused millions of human deaths in the Middle Ages. The hosts of plague are mostly rodents, and the disease is spread by the fleas that feed on them. Currently, the disease still circulates amongst sylvatic rodent populations all over the world, including great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations in Central Asia. Great gerbils are social desert rodents that live in family groups in burrows, which are visible on satellite images. In great gerbil populations an abundance threshold exists, above which plague can spread causing epizootics. The spatial distribution of the host species is thought to influence the plague dynamics, such as the direction of plague spread, however no detailed analysis exists on the possible functional or structural corridors and barriers that are present in this population and landscape. This study aims to fill that gap. Methods Three 20 by 20 km areas with known great gerbil burrow distributions were used to analyse the spatial distribution of the burrows. Object-based image analysis was used to map the landscape at several scales, and was linked to the burrow maps. A novel object-based method was developed – the mean neighbour absolute burrow density difference (MNABDD) – to identify the optimal scale and evaluate the efficacy of using landscape objects as opposed to square cells. Multiple regression using raster maps was used to identify the landscape-ecological variables that explain burrow density best. Functional corridors and barriers were mapped using burrow density thresholds. Cumulative resistance of the burrow distribution to potential disease spread was evaluated using cost distance analysis. A 46-year plague surveillance dataset was used to evaluate whether plague spread was radially symmetric. Results The burrow distribution was found to be non-random and negatively correlated with Greenness, especially in the floodplain areas. Corridors and

  1. Lesion of the olfactory epithelium accelerates prion neuroinvasion and disease onset when prion replication is restricted to neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenna Crowell

    Full Text Available Natural prion diseases of ruminants are moderately contagious and while the gastrointestinal tract is the primary site of prion agent entry, other mucosae may be entry sites in a subset of infections. In the current study we examined prion neuroinvasion and disease induction following disruption of the olfactory epithelium in the nasal mucosa since this site contains environmentally exposed olfactory sensory neurons that project directly into the central nervous system. Here we provide evidence for accelerated prion neuroinvasion and clinical onset from the olfactory mucosa after disruption and regeneration of the olfactory epithelium and when prion replication is restricted to neurons. In transgenic mice with neuron restricted replication of prions, there was a reduction in survival when the olfactory epithelium was disrupted prior to intranasal inoculation and there was >25% decrease in the prion incubation period. In a second model, the neurotropic DY strain of transmissible mink encephalopathy was not pathogenic in hamsters by the nasal route, but 50% of animals exhibited brain infection and/or disease when the olfactory epithelium was disrupted prior to intranasal inoculation. A time course analysis of prion deposition in the brain following loss of the olfactory epithelium in models of neuron-restricted prion replication suggests that neuroinvasion from the olfactory mucosa is via the olfactory nerve or brain stem associated cranial nerves. We propose that induction of neurogenesis after damage to the olfactory epithelium can lead to prion infection of immature olfactory sensory neurons and accelerate prion spread to the brain.

  2. Lesion of the Olfactory Epithelium Accelerates Prion Neuroinvasion and Disease Onset when Prion Replication Is Restricted to Neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, Jenna; Wiley, James A.; Bessen, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Natural prion diseases of ruminants are moderately contagious and while the gastrointestinal tract is the primary site of prion agent entry, other mucosae may be entry sites in a subset of infections. In the current study we examined prion neuroinvasion and disease induction following disruption of the olfactory epithelium in the nasal mucosa since this site contains environmentally exposed olfactory sensory neurons that project directly into the central nervous system. Here we provide evidence for accelerated prion neuroinvasion and clinical onset from the olfactory mucosa after disruption and regeneration of the olfactory epithelium and when prion replication is restricted to neurons. In transgenic mice with neuron restricted replication of prions, there was a reduction in survival when the olfactory epithelium was disrupted prior to intranasal inoculation and there was >25% decrease in the prion incubation period. In a second model, the neurotropic DY strain of transmissible mink encephalopathy was not pathogenic in hamsters by the nasal route, but 50% of animals exhibited brain infection and/or disease when the olfactory epithelium was disrupted prior to intranasal inoculation. A time course analysis of prion deposition in the brain following loss of the olfactory epithelium in models of neuron-restricted prion replication suggests that neuroinvasion from the olfactory mucosa is via the olfactory nerve or brain stem associated cranial nerves. We propose that induction of neurogenesis after damage to the olfactory epithelium can lead to prion infection of immature olfactory sensory neurons and accelerate prion spread to the brain. PMID:25822718

  3. Knowledge, Beliefs and Attitudes of Psoriasis Patients About the Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aslı Küçükünal

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and Design: This study evaluates the patients’ knowledge, opinions and attitudes about psoriasis.Materials and Methods: A total of 111 patients over the age of 18, clinically and histopathologically diagnosed with chronic plaque-type psoriasis were included in the study. Patients who have psychiatric illness and inadequate intelligence were excluded. A questionnaire including items on knowledge, opinions and attitudes on psoriasis were filled out by the patients and the results were analyzed statistically.Results: One hundred-eleven (45 female, 66 male patients were included in our study. 6.3% of patients did not know the diagnosis of their disease. 68.5% of patients thought that psoriasis was a contagious disease while18% thought that psoriasis was a hereditary condition. 88.3% of patients declined that they were informed about the disease by the doctor. 62.2% of patients believed that they had adequate information about psoriasis. 51.4% of patients believed that doctors gave them enough information about psoriasis. 44.1% of patients knew that psoriasis was aggravated by stress while 38.7% did not know any of the aggravating factors of psoriasis. 70.3% of patients believed that psoriasis would spread if not treated. Patients mostly (98.2% had idea about topical treatment options. 82% of patients were afraid of having psoriasis on their face. 5.4% of patients were uncomfortable with the idea of their partners’ having psoriasis. 72.1%, 88.3%, 72.1% of patients reported no negative effect of psoriasis on their relations with friends, family members, work or school life, respectivelyDiscussion: Our results showed that psoriasis patients do not have adequate knowledge about the disease. We think that dermatologists should pay more attention to inform and raise awareness of patie

  4. A model for multiseasonal spread of verticillium wilt of lettuce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, B M; Subbarao, K V

    2014-09-01

    Verticillium wilt, caused by Verticillium dahliae, is a destructive disease in lettuce, and the pathogen is seedborne. Even though maximum seed infestation rates of lettuce seed lots, it is necessary to establish acceptable contamination thresholds to prevent introduction and establishment of the pathogen in lettuce production fields. However, introduction of inoculum into lettuce fields for experimental purposes to determine its long term effects is undesirable. Therefore, we constructed a simulation model to study the spread of Verticillium wilt following pathogen introduction from seed. The model consists of four components: the first for simulating infection of host plants, the second for simulating reproduction of microsclerotia on diseased plants, the third for simulating the survival of microsclerotia, and the fourth for simulating the dispersal of microsclerotia. The simulation results demonstrated that the inoculum density-disease incidence curve parameters and the dispersal gradients affect disease spread in the field. Although a steep dispersal gradient facilitated the establishment of the disease in a new field with a low inoculum density, a long-tail gradient allowed microsclerotia to be dispersed over greater distances, promoting the disease spread in fields with high inoculum density. The simulation results also revealed the importance of avoiding successive lettuce crops in the same field, reducing survival rate of microsclerotia between crops, and the need for breeding resistance against V. dahliae in lettuce cultivars to lower the number of microsclerotia formed on each diseased plant. The simulation results, however, suggested that, even with a low seed infestation rate, the pathogen would eventually become established if susceptible lettuce cultivars were grown consecutively in the same field for many years. A threshold for seed infestation can be established only when two of the three drivers of the disease-(i) low microsclerotia production per

  5. History lessons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Sarah

    2013-08-01

    There was a time when epidemics were solely the province of infectious diseases. Indeed, most dictionary definitions of the term refer first to contagious diseases that spread rapidly among a given population.

  6. Perineural spread in head and neck tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brea Álvarez, B; Tuñón Gómez, M

    2014-01-01

    Perineural spread is the dissemination of some types of head and neck tumors along nervous structures. Perineural spread has negative repercussions on treatment because it requires more extensive resection and larger fields of irradiation. Moreover, perineural spread is associated with increased local recurrence, and it is considered an independent indicator of poor prognosis in the TNM classification for tumor staging. However, perineural spread often goes undetected on imaging studies. In this update, we review the concept of perineural spread, its pathogenesis, and the main pathways and connections among the facial nerves, which are essential to understand this process. Furthermore, we discuss the appropriate techniques for imaging studies, and we describe and illustrate the typical imaging signs that help identify perineural spread on CT and MRI. Finally, we discuss the differential diagnosis with other entities. Copyright © 2013 SERAM. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  7. Is Vector Control Sufficient to Limit Pathogen Spread in Vineyards?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daugherty, M P; O'Neill, S; Byrne, F; Zeilinger, A

    2015-06-01

    Vector control is widely viewed as an integral part of disease management. Yet epidemiological theory suggests that the effectiveness of control programs at limiting pathogen spread depends on a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic aspects of a pathosystem. Moreover, control programs rarely evaluate whether reductions in vector density or activity translate into reduced disease prevalence. In areas of California invaded by the glassy-winged sharpshooter (Homalodisca vitripennis Germar), Pierce's disease management relies heavily on chemical control of this vector, primarily via systemic conventional insecticides (i.e., imidacloprid). But, data are lacking that attribute reduced vector pressure and pathogen spread to sharpshooter control. We surveyed 34 vineyards over successive years to assess the epidemiological value of within-vineyard chemical control. The results showed that imidacloprid reduced vector pressure without clear nontarget effects or secondary pest outbreaks. Effects on disease prevalence were more nuanced. Treatment history over the preceding 5 yr affected disease prevalence, with significantly more diseased vines in untreated compared with regularly or intermittently treated vineyards. Yet, the change in disease prevalence between years was low, with no significant effects of insecticide treatment or vector abundance. Collectively, the results suggest that within-vineyard applications of imidacloprid can reduce pathogen spread, but with benefits that may take multiple seasons to become apparent. The relatively modest effect of vector control on disease prevalence in this system may be attributable in part to the currently low regional sharpshooter population densities stemming from area-wide control, without which the need for within-vineyard vector control would be more pronounced. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus 2C Is a Hexameric AAA+ Protein with a Coordinated ATP Hydrolysis Mechanism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sweeney, Trevor; Cisnetto, Valentina; Bose, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), a positive sense, single-stranded RNA virus, causes a highly contagious disease in cloven-hoofed livestock. Like other picornaviruses, FMDV has a conserved 2C protein assigned to the superfamily 3 helicases a group of AAA+ ATPases that has a predicted N-termin...

  9. Control of foot-and-mouth disease by using replication-defective human adenoviruses to deliver vaccines and biotherapeutics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most contagious viral diseases that can affect cloven-hoofed livestock and wild animals. Outbreaks of FMD have caused devastating economic losses and the slaughter of millions of animals in many regions of the world affecting the food chain and global devel...

  10. Foot-and-mouth disease virus-associated abortion and vertical transmission following acute infection in cattle under natural conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals, including domestic as well as more than 70 wild host species. During recent FMD outbreaks in India, spontaneous abortions were reported amongst FMD-affected and asymptomatic cows. T...

  11. Emerging horizons for tick-borne pathogens: from the "one pathogen-one disease" vision to the pathobiome paradigm

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vayssier-Taussat, M.; Kazimírová, M.; Hubálek, Zdeněk; Hornok, S.; Farkas, R.; Cosson, J.-F.; Bonnet, S.; Vourch, G.; Gasqui, P.; Mihalca, A. D.; Plantard, O.; Silaghi, C.; Cutler, S.; Rizzoli, A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 12 (2015), s. 2033-2043 ISSN 1746-0913 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : co-infections * emerging diseases * Ixodes ricinus * new paradigm * next-generation sequencing * pathobiome * unknown pathogens * vector competence * zoonoses Subject RIV: FN - Epidemiology, Contagious Diseases ; Clinical Immunology Impact factor: 3.637, year: 2015

  12. Foot-and-mouth disease virus : the role of infection routes and species differences in the transmission of FMDV

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bravo De Rueda Cabrera, C.

    2015-01-01

    ÁFoot-and-mouth disease is a contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals (e.g. cattle, sheep, pigs) and can cause severe economic losses to the farm animal industries. The aim of this thesis was to quantify underlying mechanisms regarding transmission of FMDV. With data from past animal

  13. Full protection of swine against foot-and-mouth disease by a bivalent B-cell epitope dendrimer peptide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blanco, Esther; Guerra, Beatriz; Torre, de la Beatriz; Defaus, Sira; Dekker, A.; Andreu, D.; Sobrino, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals. We have reported (Cubillos et al., 2008) that a synthetic dendrimeric peptide consisting of four copies of a B-cell epitope [VP1(136–154)] linked through thioether bonds to a T-cell epitope [3A(21–35)

  14. Passive immunization of guinea-pigs with llama single-domain antibody fragments against foot-and-mouth disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harmsen, M.M.; Solt, van C.B.; Fijten, H.P.D.; Keulen, van L.; Rosalia, R.A.; Weerdmeester, K.; Cornelissen, A.H.M.; Bruin, de M.G.M.; Eble, P.L.; Dekker, A.

    2007-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that occasionally causes outbreaks in Europe. There is a need for therapies that provide rapid protection against FMD in outbreak situations. We aim to provide such rapid protection by passive immunization with llama single-domain antibody

  15. MIMO Based Eigen-Space Spreading

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eltawil, Ahmed

    2004-01-01

    .... Combination of this powerful technique with orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) based modulation and traditional time and frequency spreading techniques results in a highly secure mode of communications...

  16. COMBINED SURGERY OF SPREAD THYROID CANCER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Zh. Brzhezovsky

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Results of treating of 99 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer spreading beyond the capsule of the organ were analysed. In most cases with spreading the tumor to the tracheal rings performing of organ-preserving operations (from “window-like” tracheal resections to circular tracheal resection with intertracheal anastomosis is possible. Choosing of type of operation to be performed depends on localisation and spread of tumor invasion of trachea, pharynx and esophagus. Using of combined operations in patients with locally-spread thyroid cancer allows to achieve long and stable remission in most of the cases.

  17. Energy Spread Sources in TESLA and TTF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosnier, A.; Tessier, J.M.

    1995-03-01

    The beam energy spread in the TESLA linac must be small enough to limit the emittance dilution due to the dispersive effects. This report summarizes the major sources of energy spread both for the TESLA linac and the TTF linac, where these estimations will be carefully checked with beam experiments. The first part recalls the intra-bunch energy spread while the second part looks into the bunch-to-bunch energy spread induced by rf field fluctuations within the bunch train and from pulse-to-pulse. (author). 3 refs., 4 figs

  18. Olive oil in food spreads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blanco Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Chemical hydrogenation of unsaturated fatty acids is a commonly applied reaction to food industries. The process may imply the movement of double bonds in their positions on the fatty acid carbon chain, producing positional and geometrical isomers ( trans fatty acids. Through hydrogenation, unsaturated oils are converted to margarines and vegetable shortenings. The presence of trans fatty acids in foods is undesirable, as trans fatty acids raise the plasma levels of total and low-density lipoproteins (LDL, while decrease the plasma level of high-density lipoproteins (HDL, among other effects. The use of olive oil to prepare fat spread opens new insights into the commercial development of healthy novel foods with a positive image in terms of consumer appeal.La hidrogenación química de los ácidos grasos insaturados es una reacción que se utiliza con frecuencia en la industria alimentaria. El proceso implica el movimiento de los dobles enlaces en la cadena hidrocarbonada de los ácidos grasos, y la aparición de isómeros posicionales y geométricos (ácidos grasos trans . La ingesta inadecuada de alimentos que pueden contener cantidades significativas de ácidos grasos trans se asocia con el aumento en sangre de colesterol total y LDL, y la disminución de HDL, entre otros efectos. Por lo tanto, el uso de aceite de oliva en la preparación de grasas para untar constituye un importante avance en el desarrollo comercial de nuevos alimentos saludables con una imagen positiva para el consumidor.

  19. Anomalous diffusion spreads its wings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klafter, J. [School of Chemistry, Tel Aviv University, Tel-Aviv (Israel)]. E-mail: klafter@post.tau.ac.il; Sokolov, I.M. [Institute of Physics, Humboldt University, Berlin (Germany)]. E-mail: igor.sokolov@physik.hu-berlin.de

    2005-08-01

    An increasing number of natural phenomena do not fit into the relatively simple description of diffusion developed by Einstein a century ago. As all of us are no doubt aware, this year has been declared 'world year of physics' to celebrate the three remarkable breakthroughs made by Albert Einstein in 1905. However, it is not so well known that Einstein's work on Brownian motion - the random motion of tiny particles first observed and investigated by the botanist Robert Brown in 1827 - has been cited more times in the scientific literature than his more famous papers on special relativity and the quantum nature of light. In a series of publications that included his doctoral thesis, Einstein derived an equation for Brownian motion from microscopic principles - a feat that ultimately enabled Jean Perrin and others to prove the existence of atoms (see 'Einstein's random walk' Physics World January pp19-22). Einstein was not the only person thinking about this type of problem. The 27 July 1905 issue of Nature contained a letter with the title 'The problem of the random walk' by the British statistician Karl Pearson, who was interested in the way that mosquitoes spread malaria, which he showed was described by the well-known diffusion equation. As such, the displacement of a mosquito from its initial position is proportional to the square root of time, and the distribution of the positions of many such 'random walkers' starting from the same origin is Gaussian in form. The random walk has since turned out to be intimately linked to Einstein's work on Brownian motion, and has become a major tool for understanding diffusive processes in nature. (U.K.)

  20. Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif Chr.; Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Ben Ari, Tamara; Wang, Shuchun; Fang, Xiye; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2014-01-01

    Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems. PMID:24523275

  1. The impact of awareness programs by media on the spreading and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The impact of awareness programs by media on the spreading and control of ... as leading contributors to death and disability, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), ... The numerical simulation analysis of the model confirms the analytical results.

  2. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Suyalatu; Deng Yan-Bin; Huang Yong-Chang

    2017-01-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network . (paper)

  3. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Deng, Yan-Bin; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2017-10-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11275017 and 11173028

  4. Economic Impacts of Potential Foot and Mouth Disease Agro-terrorism in the United States: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL; Rose, Adam [University of Southern California, Los Angeles; Bumsoo, Lee [University of Illinois

    2013-01-01

    The foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus has high agro-terrorism potential because it is contagious, can be easily transmitted via inanimate objects and can be spread by wind. An outbreak of FMD in developed countries results in massive slaughtering of animals (for disease control) and disruptions in meat supply chains and trade, with potentially large economic losses. Although the United States has been FMD-free since 1929, the potential of FMD as a deliberate terrorist weapon calls for estimates of the physical and economic damage that could result from an outbreak. This paper estimates the economic impacts of three alternative scenarios of potential FMD attacks using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the US economy. The three scenarios range from a small outbreak successfully contained within a state to a large multi-state attack resulting in slaughtering of 30 percent of the national livestock. Overall, the value of total output losses in our simulations range between $37 billion (0.15% of 2006 baseline economic output) and $228 billion (0.92%). Major impacts stem from the supply constraint on livestock due to massive animal slaughtering. As expected, the economic losses are heavily concentrated in agriculture and food manufacturing sectors, with losses ranging from $23 billion to $61 billion in the two industries.

  5. Presence and seeding activity of pathological prion protein (PrP(TSE in skeletal muscles of white-tailed deer infected with chronic wasting disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin L Daus

    Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD is a contagious, rapidly spreading transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE, or prion disease, occurring in cervids such as white tailed-deer (WTD, mule deer or elk in North America. Despite efficient horizontal transmission of CWD among cervids natural transmission of the disease to other species has not yet been observed. Here, we report for the first time a direct biochemical demonstration of pathological prion protein PrP(TSE and of PrP(TSE-associated seeding activity, the static and dynamic biochemical markers for biological prion infectivity, respectively, in skeletal muscles of CWD-infected cervids, i. e. WTD for which no clinical signs of CWD had been recognized. The presence of PrP(TSE was detected by Western- and postfixed frozen tissue blotting, while the seeding activity of PrP(TSE was revealed by protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA. Semi-quantitative Western blotting indicated that the concentration of PrP(TSE in skeletal muscles of CWD-infected WTD was approximately 2000-10,000-fold lower than in brain tissue. Tissue-blot-analyses revealed that PrP(TSE was located in muscle-associated nerve fascicles but not, in detectable amounts, in myocytes. The presence and seeding activity of PrP(TSE in skeletal muscle from CWD-infected cervids suggests prevention of such tissue in the human diet as a precautionary measure for food safety, pending on further clarification of whether CWD may be transmissible to humans.

  6. On entanglement spreading from holography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mezei, Márk [Princeton Center for Theoretical Science, Princeton University,Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States)

    2017-05-11

    A global quench is an interesting setting where we can study thermalization of subsystems in a pure state. We investigate entanglement entropy (EE) growth in global quenches in holographic field theories and relate some of its aspects to quantities characterizing chaos. More specifically we obtain four key results: We prove holographic bounds on the entanglement velocity v{sub E} and the butterfly effect speed v{sub B} that arises in the study of chaos. We obtain the EE as a function of time for large spherical entangling surfaces analytically. We show that the EE is insensitive to the details of the initial state or quench protocol. In a thermofield double state we determine analytically the two-sided mutual information between two large concentric spheres separated in time. We derive a bound on the rate of growth of EE for arbitrary shapes, and develop an expansion for EE at early times. In a companion paper https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.05101, these results are put in the broader context of EE growth in chaotic systems: we relate EE growth to the chaotic spreading of operators, derive bounds on EE at a given time, and compare the holographic results to spin chain numerics and toy models. In this paper, we perform holographic calculations that provide the basis of arguments presented in that paper. We prove holographic bounds on the entanglement velocity v{sub E} and the butterfly effect speed v{sub B} that arises in the study of chaos. We obtain the EE as a function of time for large spherical entangling surfaces analytically. We show that the EE is insensitive to the details of the initial state or quench protocol. In a thermofield double state we determine analytically the two-sided mutual information between two large concentric spheres separated in time. We derive a bound on the rate of growth of EE for arbitrary shapes, and develop an expansion for EE at early times.

  7. Stability Analysis Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered (SEIR) Model for Spread Model for Spread of Dengue Fever in Medan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Side, Syafruddin; Molliq Rangkuti, Yulita; Gerhana Pane, Dian; Setia Sinaga, Marlina

    2018-01-01

    Dengue fever is endemic disease which spread through vector, Aedes Aegypty. This disease is found more than 100 countries, such as, United State, Africa as well Asia, especially in country that have tropic climate. Mathematical modeling in this paper, discusses the speed of the spread of dengue fever. The model adopting divided over four classes, such as Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I) and Recovered (R). SEIR model further analyzed to detect the re-breeding value based on the number reported case by dengue in Medan city. Analysis of the stability of the system in this study is asymptotically stable indicating a case of endemic and unstable that show cases the endemic cases. Simulation on the mathematical model of SEIR showed that require a very long time to produce infected humans will be free of dengue virus infection. This happens because of dengue virus infection that occurs continuously between human and vector populations.

  8. Spreading to localized targets in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ye; Ma, Long; Zeng, An; Wang, Wen-Xu

    2016-12-01

    As an important type of dynamics on complex networks, spreading is widely used to model many real processes such as the epidemic contagion and information propagation. One of the most significant research questions in spreading is to rank the spreading ability of nodes in the network. To this end, substantial effort has been made and a variety of effective methods have been proposed. These methods usually define the spreading ability of a node as the number of finally infected nodes given that the spreading is initialized from the node. However, in many real cases such as advertising and news propagation, the spreading only aims to cover a specific group of nodes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spreading ability of nodes towards localized targets in complex networks. In this paper, we propose a reversed local path algorithm for this problem. Simulation results show that our method outperforms the existing methods in identifying the influential nodes with respect to these localized targets. Moreover, the influential spreaders identified by our method can effectively avoid infecting the non-target nodes in the spreading process.

  9. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  10. Fluorescent visualization of a spreading surfactant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fallest, David W; Lichtenberger, Adele M; Fox, Christopher J; Daniels, Karen E, E-mail: kdaniel@ncsu.ed [Department of Physics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    The spreading of surfactants on thin films is an industrially and medically important phenomenon, but the dynamics are highly nonlinear and visualization of the surfactant dynamics has been a long-standing experimental challenge. We perform the first quantitative, spatiotemporally resolved measurements of the spreading of an insoluble surfactant on a thin fluid layer. During the spreading process, we directly observe both the radial height profile of the spreading droplet and the spatial distribution of the fluorescently tagged surfactant. We find that the leading edge of a spreading circular layer of surfactant forms a Marangoni ridge in the underlying fluid, with a trough trailing the ridge as expected. However, several novel features are observed using the fluorescence technique, including a peak in the surfactant concentration that trails the leading edge, and a flat, monolayer-scale spreading film that differs from concentration profiles predicted by current models. Both the Marangoni ridge and the surfactant leading edge can be described to spread as R{approx}t{sup {delta}}. We find spreading exponents {delta}{sub H}{approx}0.30 and {delta}{sub {Gamma}}{approx}0.22 for the ridge peak and surfactant leading edge, respectively, which are in good agreement with theoretical predictions of {delta}=1/4. In addition, we observe that the surfactant leading edge initially leads the peak of the Marangoni ridge, with the peak later catching up to the leading edge.

  11. Age, spreading rates, and spreading asymmetry of the world's ocean crust

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The authors present four companion digital models of the age, age uncertainty, spreading rates and spreading asymmetries of the world's ocean basins as geographic...

  12. Spread and Liquidity Issues: A markets comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strašek Sebastjan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The financial crises are closely connected with spread changes and liquidity issues. After defining and addressing spread considerations, we research in this paper the topic of liquidity issues in times of economic crisis. We analyse the liquidity effects as recorded on spreads of securities from different markets. We stipulate that higher international risk aversion in times of financial crises coincides with widening security spreads. The paper then introduces liquidity as a risk factor into the standard value-at-risk framework, using GARCH methodology. The comparison of results of these models suggests that the size of the tested markets does not have a strong effect on the models. Thus, we find that spread analysis is an appropriate tool for analysing liquidity issues during a financial crisis.

  13. A Spread Willingness Computing-Based Information Dissemination Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Zhiming; Zhang, Shukui

    2014-01-01

    This paper constructs a kind of spread willingness computing based on information dissemination model for social network. The model takes into account the impact of node degree and dissemination mechanism, combined with the complex network theory and dynamics of infectious diseases, and further establishes the dynamical evolution equations. Equations characterize the evolutionary relationship between different types of nodes with time. The spread willingness computing contains three factors which have impact on user's spread behavior: strength of the relationship between the nodes, views identity, and frequency of contact. Simulation results show that different degrees of nodes show the same trend in the network, and even if the degree of node is very small, there is likelihood of a large area of information dissemination. The weaker the relationship between nodes, the higher probability of views selection and the higher the frequency of contact with information so that information spreads rapidly and leads to a wide range of dissemination. As the dissemination probability and immune probability change, the speed of information dissemination is also changing accordingly. The studies meet social networking features and can help to master the behavior of users and understand and analyze characteristics of information dissemination in social network. PMID:25110738

  14. A spread willingness computing-based information dissemination model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Haojing; Cui, Zhiming; Zhang, Shukui

    2014-01-01

    This paper constructs a kind of spread willingness computing based on information dissemination model for social network. The model takes into account the impact of node degree and dissemination mechanism, combined with the complex network theory and dynamics of infectious diseases, and further establishes the dynamical evolution equations. Equations characterize the evolutionary relationship between different types of nodes with time. The spread willingness computing contains three factors which have impact on user's spread behavior: strength of the relationship between the nodes, views identity, and frequency of contact. Simulation results show that different degrees of nodes show the same trend in the network, and even if the degree of node is very small, there is likelihood of a large area of information dissemination. The weaker the relationship between nodes, the higher probability of views selection and the higher the frequency of contact with information so that information spreads rapidly and leads to a wide range of dissemination. As the dissemination probability and immune probability change, the speed of information dissemination is also changing accordingly. The studies meet social networking features and can help to master the behavior of users and understand and analyze characteristics of information dissemination in social network.

  15. Competing spreading processes on multiplex networks: awareness and epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2014-07-01

    Epidemiclike spreading processes on top of multilayered interconnected complex networks reveal a rich phase diagram of intertwined competition effects. A recent study by the authors [C. Granell et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 128701 (2013).] presented an analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the spreading of information awareness to prevent infection, on top of multiplex networks. The results in the case in which awareness implies total immunization to the disease revealed the existence of a metacritical point at which the critical onset of the epidemics starts, depending on completion of the awareness process. Here we present a full analysis of these critical properties in the more general scenario where the awareness spreading does not imply total immunization, and where infection does not imply immediate awareness of it. We find the critical relation between the two competing processes for a wide spectrum of parameters representing the interaction between them. We also analyze the consequences of a massive broadcast of awareness (mass media) on the final outcome of the epidemic incidence. Importantly enough, the mass media make the metacritical point disappear. The results reveal that the main finding, i.e., existence of a metacritical point, is rooted in the competition principle and holds for a large set of scenarios.

  16. A Spread Willingness Computing-Based Information Dissemination Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haojing Huang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper constructs a kind of spread willingness computing based on information dissemination model for social network. The model takes into account the impact of node degree and dissemination mechanism, combined with the complex network theory and dynamics of infectious diseases, and further establishes the dynamical evolution equations. Equations characterize the evolutionary relationship between different types of nodes with time. The spread willingness computing contains three factors which have impact on user’s spread behavior: strength of the relationship between the nodes, views identity, and frequency of contact. Simulation results show that different degrees of nodes show the same trend in the network, and even if the degree of node is very small, there is likelihood of a large area of information dissemination. The weaker the relationship between nodes, the higher probability of views selection and the higher the frequency of contact with information so that information spreads rapidly and leads to a wide range of dissemination. As the dissemination probability and immune probability change, the speed of information dissemination is also changing accordingly. The studies meet social networking features and can help to master the behavior of users and understand and analyze characteristics of information dissemination in social network.

  17. Immune Evasion During Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV) Infection of Swine

    Science.gov (United States)

    The interface between successful pathogens and their hosts is often a tenuous balance. In acute viral infections, this involves induction and inhibition of innate responses. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is considered one of the most contagious viruses known and is characterized by rapid induc...

  18. Treatment with interferon-alpha delays disease in swine infected with a highly virulent CSFV strain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Classical swine fever (CSF) is an economically significant, highly contagious swine disease. The etiological agent, CSF virus (CSFV), is an enveloped virus with a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA genome, classified as a member of the genus Pestivirus within the family Flaviviridae (Becher et al.,...

  19. Epidemic spreading induced by diversity of agents' mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jie; Chung, Ning Ning; Chew, Lock Yue; Lai, Choy Heng

    2012-08-01

    In this paper, we study the impact of the preference of an individual for public transport on the spread of infectious disease, through a quantity known as the public mobility. Our theoretical and numerical results based on a constructed model reveal that if the average public mobility of the agents is fixed, an increase in the diversity of the agents' public mobility reduces the epidemic threshold, beyond which an enhancement in the rate of infection is observed. Our findings provide an approach to improve the resistance of a society against infectious disease, while preserving the utilization rate of the public transportation system.

  20. Development of Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakerardekani, Ahmad; Karim, Roselina; Ghazali, Hasanah Mohd; Chin, Nyuk Ling

    2013-03-01

    Pistachio nut (Pistacia vera L.) is one of the most delicious and nutritious nuts in the world. Pistachio spreads were developed using pistachio paste as the main component, icing sugar, soy protein isolate (SPI), and red palm oil (RPO), at different ratios. The highest mean scores of all the sensory attributes were depicted by spreads that were made without addition of SPI. It was found that the work of shear was 0 to 11.0 kg s for an acceptable spread. Sensory spreadability, overall texture, spreadability, and overall acceptability were negatively correlated (R > 0.83) with the work of shear of spreads. The findings indicated that the presence of RPO had a direct effect on the viscoelastic behavior of the pistachio spreads. The a values, which are related to the green color of the pistachio product ranged from 1.7 to 3.9 for spread without addition of RPO, and 4.0 to 5.3 in the presence of RPO. The development of pistachio spread would potentially increase the food uses of pistachio and introduce consumers with a healthier snack food. © 2013 Institute of Food Technologists®

  1. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  2. Passive immunization of pigs with bispecific llama single-domain antibody fragments against foot-and-mouth disease and porcine immunoglobulin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harmsen, M.M.; Fijten, H.P.D.; Dekker, A.; Eble, P.L.

    2008-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals that occasionally causes outbreaks in Europe. We aim to develop an immunotherapy that confers rapid protection against FMD in outbreak situations. For this purpose, we previously isolated llama single-domain antibody

  3. The establishment and spread of myxomatosis and its effect on rabbit populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, J; Tittensor, A M

    1986-12-15

    The establishment of myxomatosis, the spread of the disease and its effects on rabbit populations in Australia and in Britain are briefly reviewed. Though the disease is endemic, with regular outbreaks in most rabbit populations, its effect is now much less dramatic than previously. Recent epidemiological studies have shown that the rate of spread of infection, the proportion of rabbits infected and the proportion dying from the disease are very much smaller than recorded in earlier outbreaks. The reasons for these changes are discussed, and the epidemiology of the disease in Britain is compared with that in Australia.

  4. Credit Spreads Across the Business Cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

    This paper studies how corporate bond spreads vary with the business cycle. I show that both level and slope of empirical credit spread curves are correlated with the state of the economy, and I link this to variation in idiosyncratic jump risk. I develop a structural credit risk model...... that accounts for both business cycle and jump risk, and show by estimation that the model captures the counter-cyclical level and pro-cyclical slope of empirical credit spread curves. In addition, I provide a new procedure for estimation of idiosyncratic jump risk, which is consistent with observed shocks...

  5. Modelling unidirectional liquid spreading on slanted microposts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalli, Andrea; Blow, Matthew L.; Yeomans, Julia M.

    2013-01-01

    A lattice Boltzmann algorithm is used to simulate the slow spreading of drops on a surface patterned with slanted micro-posts. Gibb's pinning of the interface on the sides or top of the posts leads to unidirectional spreading over a wide range of contact angles and inclination angles of the posts....... Regimes for spreading in no, one or two directions are identified, and shown to agree well with a two-dimensional theory proposed in Chu, Xiao and Wang. A more detailed numerical analysis of the contact line shapes allows us to understand deviations from the two dimensional model, and to identify...

  6. Epidemic spreading in localized environments with recurrent mobility patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Mucha, Peter J.

    2018-05-01

    The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns—such as workplaces, university campuses, or schools—it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here, we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of susceptible-infected-susceptible-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.

  7. Fallopian tube cancer: incidence and role of lymphatic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Re, E; Grosso, G; Raspagliesi, F; Baiocchi, G

    1996-08-01

    Lymphatic spread pattern in 17 cases of adenocarcinoma of fallopian tube is reported. Median age of the patients was 48 years. All patients underwent surgical staging including total abdominal hysterectomy, bilateral salpingo-oopherectomy omentectomy, and appendectomy. Systematic pelvic and paraaortic lymphadenectomy was feasible in 15 cases. Majority of the patients (11 of 17 cases, 64%) had advanced disease and showed serous adenocarcinoma (83%). Lymph nodes were involved in 10 of 17 cases (59%). Node metastases rate increased significantly (P < 0.01) with intraperitoneal stage of disease and with grading. Interestingly, positive nodes were also found in 2 cases (33%) of 6 patients with disease still limited to fallopian tube. Overall, patients with negative nodes had a median survival of 76 months, compared with only 33 months if node metastases were found. In conclusion, combined pelvic and para-aortic lymphadenectomy seems to be necessary for staging and perhaps for prognosis of this disease.

  8. Temporal percolation of the susceptible network in an epidemic spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Macri, Pablo Alejandro; Braunstein, Lidia Adriana

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental approach and percolation tools, we find that a time-dependent quantity ΦS(t), namely, the probability that a given neighbor of a node is susceptible at time t, is the control parameter of a node void percolation process involving those nodes on the network not-reached by the disease. We show that there exists a critical time t(c) above which the giant susceptible component is destroyed. As a consequence, in order to preserve a macroscopic connected fraction of the network composed by healthy individuals which guarantee its functionality, any mitigation strategy should be implemented before this critical time t(c). Our theoretical results are confirmed by extensive simulations of the SIR process.

  9. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  10. Interference management using direct sequence spread spectrum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Interference management using direct sequence spread spectrum (DSSS) technique ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... Keywords: DSSS, LTE network; Wi-Fi network; SINR; interference management and interference power.

  11. Flame spread along thermally thick horizontal rods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higuera, F. J.

    2002-06-01

    An analysis is carried out of the spread of a flame along a horizontal solid fuel rod, for which a weak aiding natural convection flow is established in the underside of the rod by the action of the axial gradient of the pressure variation that gravity generates in the warm gas surrounding the flame. The spread rate is determined in the limit of infinitely fast kinetics, taking into account the effect of radiative losses from the solid surface. The effect of a small inclination of the rod is discussed, pointing out a continuous transition between upward and downward flame spread. Flame spread along flat-bottomed solid cylinders, for which the gradient of the hydrostatically generated pressure drives the flow both along and across the direction of flame propagation, is also analysed.

  12. Spreading paths in partially observed social networks

    OpenAIRE

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using a static, s...

  13. Mapping the Spread of Mounted Warfare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Turchin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Military technology is one of the most important factors affecting the evolution of complex societies. In particular, mounted warfare, the use of horse-riders in military operations, revolutionized war as it spread to different parts of Eurasia and Africa during the Ancient and Medieval eras, and to the Americas during the Early Modern period. Here we use a variety of sources to map this spread.

  14. Ignition and spread of electrical wire fires

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Xinyan

    2012-01-01

    Ignition of electrical wires by external heating is investigated in order to gain a better understanding of the initiation of electrical-wire fires. An ignition-to- spread model is developed to systematically explain ignition and the following transition to spread. The model predicts that for a higher-conductance wire it is more difficult to achieve ignition and the weak flame may extinguish during the transition phase because of a large conductive heat loss along the wire core. Wires with tw...

  15. Spreading characteristics of proprietary rectal steroid preparations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hay, D.J.

    1982-01-01

    Three types of rectal steroid preparation were labelled with Technetium 99 or Indium 111, and the extent of spread of each within the bowel was followed, immediately after administration and at 2hrs, using a gamma camera. Patients with ulcerative colitis were compared with controls. Results indicate that 'Colifoam' enema and 'Predsol' suppository act mainly in the rectum, but 'Predsol retention' enema spreads further into the colon, making it more useful for patients with extensive ulcerative colitis. (U.K.)

  16. Ecological multiplex interactions determine the role of species for parasite spread amplification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stella, Massimo; Selakovic, Sanja; Antonioni, Alberto; Andreazzi, Cecilia

    2018-04-23

    Despite their potential interplay, multiple routes of many disease transmissions are often investigated separately. As an unifying framework for understanding parasite spread through interdependent transmission paths, we present the 'ecomultiplex' model, where the multiple transmission paths among a diverse community of interacting hosts are represented as a spatially explicit multiplex network. We adopt this framework for designing and testing potential control strategies for T. cruzi spread in two empirical host communities. We show that the ecomultiplex model is an efficient and low data-demanding method to identify which species enhances parasite spread and should thus be a target for control strategies. We also find that the interplay between predator-prey and host-parasite interactions leads to a phenomenon of parasite amplification, in which top predators facilitate T. cruzi spread, offering a mechanistic interpretation of previous empirical findings. Our approach can provide novel insights in understanding and controlling parasite spreading in real-world complex systems. © 2018, Stella et al.

  17. Why did bluetongue spread the way it did? Environmental factors influencing the velocity of bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic wave in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pioz, Maryline; Guis, Hélène; Crespin, Laurent; Gay, Emilie; Calavas, Didier; Durand, Benoît; Abrial, David; Ducrot, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Understanding where and how fast an infectious disease will spread during an epidemic is critical for its control. However, the task is a challenging one as numerous factors may interact and drive the spread of a disease, specifically when vector-borne diseases are involved. We advocate the use of simultaneous autoregressive models to identify environmental features that significantly impact the velocity of disease spread. We illustrate this approach by exploring several environmental factors influencing the velocity of bluetongue (BT) spread in France during the 2007-2008 epizootic wave to determine which ones were the most important drivers. We used velocities of BT spread estimated in 4,495 municipalities and tested sixteen covariates defining five thematic groups of related variables: elevation, meteorological-related variables, landscape-related variables, host availability, and vaccination. We found that ecological factors associated with vector abundance and activity (elevation and meteorological-related variables), as well as with host availability, were important drivers of the spread of the disease. Specifically, the disease spread more slowly in areas with high elevation and when heavy rainfall associated with extreme temperature events occurred one or two months prior to the first clinical case. Moreover, the density of dairy cattle was correlated negatively with the velocity of BT spread. These findings add substantially to our understanding of BT spread in a temperate climate. Finally, the approach presented in this paper can be used with other infectious diseases, and provides a powerful tool to identify environmental features driving the velocity of disease spread.

  18. Dynamical Model about Rumor Spreading with Medium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaxia Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Rumor is a kind of social remark, that is untrue, and not be confirmed, and spreads on a large scale in a short time. Usually, it can induce a cloud of pressure, anxiety, and panic. Traditionally, it is propagated by word of mouth. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.

  19. Gossip spread in social network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Gossip almost inevitably arises in real social networks. In this article we investigate the relationship between the number of friends of a person and limits on how far gossip about that person can spread in the network. How far gossip travels in a network depends on two sets of factors: (a) factors determining gossip transmission from one person to the next and (b) factors determining network topology. For a simple model where gossip is spread among people who know the victim it is known that a standard scale-free network model produces a non-monotonic relationship between number of friends and expected relative spread of gossip, a pattern that is also observed in real networks (Lind et al., 2007). Here, we study gossip spread in two social network models (Toivonen et al., 2006; Vázquez, 2003) by exploring the parameter space of both models and fitting them to a real Facebook data set. Both models can produce the non-monotonic relationship of real networks more accurately than a standard scale-free model while also exhibiting more realistic variability in gossip spread. Of the two models, the one given in Vázquez (2003) best captures both the expected values and variability of gossip spread.

  20. Roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness in spreading dynamics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Liu, Run-Ran; Peng, Dan; Jia, Chun-Xiao; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2018-02-01

    Comparing with single networks, the multiplex networks bring two main effects on the spreading process among individuals. First, the pathogen or information can be transmitted to more individuals through different layers at one time, which enlarges the spreading scope. Second, through different layers, an individual can also transmit the pathogen or information to the same individuals more than once at one time, which makes the spreading more effective. To understand the different roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness, we propose an epidemic model on multiplex networks with link overlapping, where the spreading effectiveness of each interaction as well as the variety of channels (spreading scope) can be controlled by the number of overlapping links. We find that for Poisson degree distribution, increasing the epidemic scope (the first effect) is more efficient than enhancing epidemic probability (the second effect) to facilitate the spreading process. However, for power-law degree distribution, the effects of the two factors on the spreading dynamics become complicated. Enhancing epidemic probability makes pathogen or rumor easier to outbreak in a finite system. But after that increasing epidemic scopes is still more effective for a wide spreading. Theoretical results along with reasonable explanation for these phenomena are all given in this paper, which indicates that the epidemic scope could play an important role in the spreading dynamics.

  1. Agricultural freight : network access and issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    Objectives: Better understand inherent risk of highly : contagious disease spread among : Vermont dairy farms; Better prepare response agencies and : individuals; Stimulate continuity of business planning : among producers and allied industry

  2. Subclinical pertussis in incompletely vaccinated and unvaccinated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    subclinical whooping cough) does in fact occur. Recent studies have shown subclinical disease in vaccinated infants ... through home visits by a community health nurse with ..... The current study extends the knowledge of contagious spread of ...

  3. Scale-dependent approaches to modeling spatial epidemiology of chronic wasting disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Mary M.; Gross, John E.; Cross, Paul C.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Gillies, Robert; Samuel, Michael D.; Miller, Michael W.

    2007-01-01

    This e-book is the product of a second workshop that was funded and promoted by the United States Geological Survey to enhance cooperation between states for the management of chronic wasting disease (CWD). The first workshop addressed issues surrounding the statistical design and collection of surveillance data for CWD. The second workshop, from which this document arose, followed logically from the first workshop and focused on appropriate methods for analysis, interpretation, and use of CWD surveillance and related epidemiology data. Consequently, the emphasis of this e-book is on modeling approaches to describe and gain insight of the spatial epidemiology of CWD. We designed this e-book for wildlife managers and biologists who are responsible for the surveillance of CWD in their state or agency. We chose spatial methods that are popular or common in the spatial epidemiology literature and evaluated them for their relevance to modeling CWD. Our opinion of the usefulness and relevance of each method was based on the type of field data commonly collected as part of CWD surveillance programs and what we know about CWD biology, ecology, and epidemiology. Specifically, we expected the field data to consist primarily of the infection status of a harvested or culled sample along with its date of collection (not date of infection), location, and demographic status. We evaluated methods in light of the fact that CWD does not appear to spread rapidly through wild populations, relative to more highly contagious viruses, and can be spread directly from animal to animal or indirectly through environmental contamination.

  4. Zoonotic mosquito-borne flaviviruses: worldwide presence of agents with proven pathogenicity and potential candidates of future emerging diseases

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Weissenböck, H.; Hubálek, Zdeněk; Bakonyi, T.; Nowotny, N.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 140, 3-4 (2010), s. 271-280 ISSN 0378-1135 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : Flaviviridae * mosquitoes * Culicidae * zoonoses * arboviruses Subject RIV: FN - Epidemiology, Contagious Diseases ; Clinical Immunology Impact factor: 3.256, year: 2010

  5. Modeling the effects of social impact on epidemic spreading in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Shunjiang; Weng, Wenguo; Zhang, Hui

    2011-11-01

    We investigate by mean-field analysis and extensive simulations the effects of social impact on epidemic spreading in various typical networks with two types of nodes: active nodes and passive nodes, of which the behavior patterns are modeled according to the social impact theory. In this study, nodes are not only the media to spread the virus, but also disseminate their opinions on the virus-whether there is a need for certain self-protection measures to be taken to reduce the risk of being infected. Our results indicate that the interaction between epidemic spreading and opinion dynamics can have significant influences on the spreading of infectious diseases and related applications, such as the implementation of prevention and control measures against the infectious diseases.

  6. High-temperature spreading kinetics of metals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rauch, N.

    2005-05-15

    In this PhD work a drop transfer setup combined with high speed photography has been used to analyze the spreading of Ag on polished polycrystalline Mo and single crystalline Mo (110) and (100) substrates. The objective of this work was to unveil the basic phenomena controlling spreading in metal-metal systems. The observed spreading kinetics were compared with current theories of low and high temperature spreading such as a molecular kinetic model and a fluid flow model. Analyses of the data reveal that the molecular model does describe the fastest velocity data well for all the investigated systems. Therefore, the energy which is dissipated during the spreading process is a dissipation at the triple line rather than dissipation due to the viscosity in the liquid. A comparison of the determined free activation energy for wetting of {delta}G95{approx}145kJ/mol with literature values allows the statement that the rate determining step seems to be a surface diffusion of the Ag atoms along the triple line. In order to investigate possible ridge formation, due to local atomic diffusion of atoms of the substrate at the triple during the spreading process, grooving experiments of the polycrystalline Mo were performed to calculate the surface diffusities that will control ridge evolution. The analyses of this work showed that a ridge formation at the fastest reported wetting velocities was not possible if there is no initial perturbation for a ridge. If there was an initial perturbation for a ridge the ridge had to be much smaller than 1 nm in order to be able to move with the liquid font. Therefore ridge formation does not influence the spreading kinetics for the studied system and the chosen conditions. SEM, AFM and TEM investigations of the triple line showed that ridge formation does also not occur at the end of the wetting experiment when the drop is close to equilibrium and the wetting velocity is slow. (orig.)

  7. Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Huiyan; Fu, Xinchu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, we present a new SIS model with delay on scale-free networks. The model is suitable to describe some epidemics which are not only transmitted by a vector but also spread between individuals by direct contacts. In view of the biological relevance and real spreading process, we introduce a delay to denote average incubation period of disease in a vector. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the epidemic threshold and prove the global stability of equilibria. The simulation shows the delay will effect the epidemic spreading. Finally, we investigate and compare two major immunization strategies, uniform immunization and targeted immunization.

  8. Terrestrial spreading centers under Venus conditions - Evaluation of a crustal spreading model for Western Aphrodite Terra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotin, C.; Senske, D. A.; Head, J. W.; Parmentier, E. M.

    1989-01-01

    The model of Reid and Jackson (1981) for terrestrial spreading centers is applied to Venus conditions. On the basis of spreading rate, mantle temperature, and surface temperature, the model predicts both isostatic topography and crustal thickness. The model and Pioneer Venus altimetry and gravity data are used to test the hypothesis of Head and Crumpler (1987) that Western Aphrodite Terra is the location of crustal spreading on Venus. It is concluded that a spreading center model for Ovda Regio in Western Aphrodite Terra could account for the observed topography and line-of-sight gravity anomalies found in the Pioneer data.

  9. Preventing Superinfection in Malaria Spreads with Repellent and Medical Treatment Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitri, Fanny; Aldila, Dipo

    2018-03-01

    Malaria is a kind of a vector-borne disease. That means this disease needs a vector (in this case, the anopheles mosquito) to spread. In this article, a mathematical model for malaria disease spread will be discussed. The model is constructed as a seven-dimensional of a non-linear ordinary differential equation. The interventions of treatment for infected humans and use of repellent are included in the model to see how these interventions could be considered as alternative ways to control the spread of malaria. Analysis will be made of the disease-free equilibrium point along with its local stability criteria, construction of the next generation matrix which followed with the sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction number. We found that both medical treatment and repellent intervention succeeded in reducing the basic reproduction number as the endemic indicator of the model. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to give a better interpretation of the analytical results.

  10. Distribution of cow-calf producers' beliefs about reporting cattle with clinical signs of foot-and-mouth disease to a veterinarian before or during a hypothetical outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Amy H; Norby, Bo; Scott, H Morgan; Dean, Wesley; McIntosh, W Alex; Bush, Eric

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the prevalence of cattle producers' beliefs regarding disease reporting can help officials improve surveillance programs with passive data collection. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Texas in 2008 and 2009 to determine beliefs about reporting cattle with clinical signs consistent with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) either prior to (scenario 1) or during an on-going outbreak of FMD (scenario 2). Two questionnaires were developed and distributed to Texas cow-calf producers in order to evaluate their behavioral, control, and normative beliefs related to disease reporting. The context for each behavior was provided through the use of scenarios, and belief strength was measured using a 7-point Likert-like scale. Beliefs were compared across scenarios and demographic categories, and the effect of scenario on belief examined using ordinal logistic regression. Respondents agreed that reporting clinically suspect cases would have positive economic and emotional consequences; however, when an outbreak was known to be present, producers were less likely to agree with many of the positive outcomes of reporting. Important barriers to disease reporting indicated by producers included a lack of knowledge related to clinical signs of highly contagious cattle diseases and which cattle are at risk of contracting FMD. In general, beliefs about barriers to reporting did not differ based on scenario. Veterinarians and regulatory authorities were the groups perceived to most strongly expect disease reporting, regardless of the scenario. Risk education for producers related to clinical signs of reportable livestock diseases, post-reporting procedures, and an understanding of FMD introduction and spread may improve the reporting of cattle with clinical signs consistent with FMD. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. Free energy analysis of cell spreading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, Eóin; Deshpande, Vikram S; McGarry, Patrick

    2017-10-01

    In this study we present a steady-state adaptation of the thermodynamically motivated stress fiber (SF) model of Vigliotti et al. (2015). We implement this steady-state formulation in a non-local finite element setting where we also consider global conservation of the total number of cytoskeletal proteins within the cell, global conservation of the number of binding integrins on the cell membrane, and adhesion limiting ligand density on the substrate surface. We present a number of simulations of cell spreading in which we consider a limited subset of the possible deformed spread-states assumed by the cell in order to examine the hypothesis that free energy minimization drives the process of cell spreading. Simulations suggest that cell spreading can be viewed as a competition between (i) decreasing cytoskeletal free energy due to strain induced assembly of cytoskeletal proteins into contractile SFs, and (ii) increasing elastic free energy due to stretching of the mechanically passive components of the cell. The computed minimum free energy spread area is shown to be lower for a cell on a compliant substrate than on a rigid substrate. Furthermore, a low substrate ligand density is found to limit cell spreading. The predicted dependence of cell spread area on substrate stiffness and ligand density is in agreement with the experiments of Engler et al. (2003). We also simulate the experiments of Théry et al. (2006), whereby initially circular cells deform and adhere to "V-shaped" and "Y-shaped" ligand patches. Analysis of a number of different spread states reveals that deformed configurations with the lowest free energy exhibit a SF distribution that corresponds to experimental observations, i.e. a high concentration of highly aligned SFs occurs along free edges, with lower SF concentrations in the interior of the cell. In summary, the results of this study suggest that cell spreading is driven by free energy minimization based on a competition between decreasing

  12. Epidemic spreading on adaptively weighted scale-free networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mengfeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Kang, Huiyan; Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu

    2017-04-01

    We introduce three modified SIS models on scale-free networks that take into account variable population size, nonlinear infectivity, adaptive weights, behavior inertia and time delay, so as to better characterize the actual spread of epidemics. We develop new mathematical methods and techniques to study the dynamics of the models, including the basic reproduction number, and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. We show the disease-free equilibrium cannot undergo a Hopf bifurcation. We further analyze the effects of local information of diseases and various immunization schemes on epidemic dynamics. We also perform some stochastic network simulations which yield quantitative agreement with the deterministic mean-field approach.

  13. Spreading paths in partially observed social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A.

    2012-03-01

    Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using static, structurally realistic social networks as platforms for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1) the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3) the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may, counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.

  14. Spreading paths in partially observed social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A

    2012-03-01

    Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using static, structurally realistic social networks as platforms for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1) the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3) the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may, counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.

  15. Assessment of thema code against spreading experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spindler, B.; Veteau, J.M.; Cecco, L. de; Montanelli, P.; Pineau, D.

    2000-01-01

    In the frame work of severe accident research, the spreading code THEMA, developed at CEA/DRN, aims at predicting the spreading extent of molten core after a vessel melt-through. The code solves fluid balance equations integrated over the fluid depth for oxidic and/or metallic phases under the shallow water assumption, using a finite difference scheme. Solidification is taken into account through crust formation on the substrate and at contact with the surroundings, as well as increase of fluid viscosity with solid fraction in the melt. A separate energy equation is solved for the solid substrate, including possible ablation. The assessment of THEMA code against the spreading experiments performed in the framework of the corium spreading and coolability project of the European Union is presented. These experiments use either simulating materials at medium (RIT), or at high temperature (KATS), or corium (VULCANO, FARO), conducted at different mass flow rates and with large or low solidification interval. THEMA appears to be able to simulate the whole set of the experiments investigated. Comparison between experimental and computed spreading lengths and substrate temperatures are quite satisfactory. The results show a rather large sensitivity at mass flow rate and inlet temperature, indicating that, generally, efforts should be made to improve the accuracy of the measurements of such parameters in the experiments. (orig.)

  16. Post-Tanner spreading of nematic droplets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mechkov, S; Oshanin, G; Cazabat, A M

    2009-01-01

    The quasistationary spreading of a circular liquid drop on a solid substrate typically obeys the so-called Tanner law, with the instantaneous base radius R(t) growing with time as R∼t 1/10 -an effect of the dominant role of capillary forces for a small-sized droplet. However, for droplets of nematic liquid crystals, a faster spreading law sets in at long times, so that R∼t α with α significantly larger than the Tanner exponent 1/10. In the framework of the thin film model (or lubrication approximation), we describe this 'acceleration' as a transition to a qualitatively different spreading regime driven by a strong substrate-liquid interaction specific to nematics (antagonistic anchoring at the interfaces). The numerical solution of the thin film equation agrees well with the available experimental data for nematics, even though the non-Newtonian rheology has yet to be taken into account. Thus we complement the theory of spreading with a post-Tanner stage, noting that the spreading process can be expected to cross over from the usual capillarity-dominated stage to a regime where the whole reservoir becomes a diffusive film in the sense of Derjaguin.

  17. Detection of African swine fever, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease viruses in swine oral fluids by multiplex reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grau, Frederic R; Schroeder, Megan E; Mulhern, Erin L; McIntosh, Michael T; Bounpheng, Mangkey A

    2015-03-01

    African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever (CSF), and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are highly contagious animal diseases of significant economic importance. Pigs infected with ASF and CSF viruses (ASFV and CSFV) develop clinical signs that may be indistinguishable from other diseases. Likewise, various causes of vesicular disease can mimic clinical signs caused by the FMD virus (FMDV). Early detection is critical to limiting the impact and spread of these disease outbreaks, and the ability to perform herd-level surveillance for all 3 diseases rapidly and cost effectively using a single diagnostic sample and test is highly desirable. This study assessed the feasibility of simultaneous ASFV, CSFV, and FMDV detection by multiplex reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction (mRT-qPCR) in swine oral fluids collected through the use of chewing ropes. Animal groups were experimentally infected independently with each virus, observed for clinical signs, and oral fluids collected and tested throughout the course of infection. All animal groups chewed on the ropes readily before and after onset of clinical signs and before onset of lameness or serious clinical signs. ASFV was detected as early as 3 days postinoculation (dpi), 2-3 days before onset of clinical disease; CSFV was detected at 5 dpi, coincident with onset of clinical disease; and FMDV was detected as early as 1 dpi, 1 day before the onset of clinical disease. Equivalent results were observed in 4 independent studies and demonstrate the feasibility of oral fluids and mRT-qPCR for surveillance of ASF, CSF, and FMD in swine populations. © 2015 The Author(s).

  18. Modelling control of epidemics spreading by long-range interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dybiec, Bartłomiej; Kleczkowski, Adam; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2009-10-06

    We have studied the spread of epidemics characterized by a mixture of local and non-local interactions. The infection spreads on a two-dimensional lattice with the fixed nearest neighbour connections. In addition, long-range dynamical links are formed by moving agents (vectors). Vectors perform random walks, with step length distributed according to a thick-tail distribution. Two distributions are considered in this paper, an alpha-stable distribution describing self-similar vector movement, yet characterized by an infinite variance and an exponential power characterized by a large but finite variance. Such long-range interactions are hard to track and make control of epidemics very difficult. We also allowed for cryptic infection, whereby an infected individual on the lattice can be infectious prior to showing any symptoms of infection or disease. To account for such cryptic spread, we considered a control strategy in which not only detected, i.e. symptomatic, individuals but also all individuals within a certain control neighbourhood are treated upon the detection of disease. We show that it is possible to eradicate the disease by using such purely local control measures, even in the presence of long-range jumps. In particular, we show that the success of local control and the choice of the optimal strategy depend in a non-trivial way on the dispersal patterns of the vectors. By characterizing these patterns using the stability index of the alpha-stable distribution to change the power-law behaviour or the exponent characterizing the decay of an exponential power distribution, we show that infection can be successfully contained using relatively small control neighbourhoods for two limiting cases for long-distance dispersal and for vectors that are much more limited in their dispersal range.

  19. Immunization strategy for epidemic spreading on multilayer networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buono, C.; Braunstein, L. A.

    2015-01-01

    In many real-world complex systems, individuals have many kinds of interactions among them, suggesting that it is necessary to consider a layered-structure framework to model systems such as social interactions. This structure can be captured by multilayer networks and can have major effects on the spreading of process that occurs over them, such as epidemics. In this letter we study a targeted immunization strategy for epidemic spreading over a multilayer network. We apply the strategy in one of the layers and study its effect in all layers of the network disregarding degree-degree correlation among layers. We found that the targeted strategy is not as efficient as in isolated networks, due to the fact that in order to stop the spreading of the disease it is necessary to immunize more than 80% of the individuals. However, the size of the epidemic is drastically reduced in the layer where the immunization strategy is applied compared to the case with no mitigation strategy. Thus, the immunization strategy has a major effect on the layer were it is applied, but does not efficiently protect the individuals of other layers.

  20. Virulence evolution at the front line of spreading epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griette, Quentin; Raoul, Gaël; Gandon, Sylvain

    2015-11-01

    Understanding and predicting the spatial spread of emerging pathogens is a major challenge for the public health management of infectious diseases. Theoretical epidemiology shows that the speed of an epidemic is governed by the life-history characteristics of the pathogen and its ability to disperse. Rapid evolution of these traits during the invasion may thus affect the speed of epidemics. Here we study the influence of virulence evolution on the spatial spread of an epidemic. At the edge of the invasion front, we show that more virulent and transmissible genotypes are expected to win the competition with other pathogens. Behind the front line, however, more prudent exploitation strategies outcompete virulent pathogens. Crucially, even when the presence of the virulent mutant is limited to the edge of the front, the invasion speed can be dramatically altered by pathogen evolution. We support our analysis with individual-based simulations and we discuss the additional effects of demographic stochasticity taking place at the front line on virulence evolution. We confirm that an increase of virulence can occur at the front, but only if the carrying capacity of the invading pathogen is large enough. These results are discussed in the light of recent empirical studies examining virulence evolution at the edge of spreading epidemics. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  1. Effect of risk perception on epidemic spreading in temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moinet, Antoine; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Barrat, Alain

    2018-01-01

    Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties, including complex and temporal interaction networks. Moreover, a number of recent studies have started to go beyond the assumption of an absence of coupling between the spread of a disease and the structure of the contacts on which it unfolds. Models including awareness of the spread have been proposed, to mimic possible precautionary measures taken by individuals that decrease their risk of infection, but have mostly considered static networks. Here, we adapt such a framework to the more realistic case of temporal networks of interactions between individuals. We study the resulting model by analytical and numerical means on both simple models of temporal networks and empirical time-resolved contact data. Analytical results show that the epidemic threshold is not affected by the awareness but that the prevalence can be significantly decreased. Numerical studies on synthetic temporal networks highlight, however, the presence of very strong finite-size effects, resulting in a significant shift of the effective epidemic threshold in the presence of risk awareness. For empirical contact networks, the awareness mechanism leads as well to a shift in the effective threshold and to a strong reduction of the epidemic prevalence.

  2. Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Samik; Bull, James C.; Budge, Giles E.; Keeling, Matt J.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the spread of American foulbrood (AFB), a disease caused by the bacterium Paenibacillus larvae, that affects bees and can be extremely damaging to beehives. Our dataset comes from an inspection period carried out during an AFB epidemic of honeybee colonies on the island of Jersey during the summer of 2010. The data include the number of hives of honeybees, location and owner of honeybee apiaries across the island. We use a spatial SIR model with an underlying owner network to simulate the epidemic and characterize the epidemic using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to determine model parameters and infection times (including undetected ‘occult’ infections). Likely methods of infection spread can be inferred from the analysis, with both distance- and owner-based transmissions being found to contribute to the spread of AFB. The results of the MCMC are corroborated by simulating the epidemic using a stochastic SIR model, resulting in aggregate levels of infection that are comparable to the data. We use this stochastic SIR model to simulate the impact of different control strategies on controlling the epidemic. It is found that earlier inspections result in smaller epidemics and a higher likelihood of AFB extinction. PMID:24026473

  3. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  4. Whole genome sequencing of genotype VI Newcastle disease viruses from formalin-fixed paraffinembedded tissues from wild pigeons reveals continuous evolution and previously unrecognized genetic diversity in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: Newcastle disease viruses (NDV) are highly contagious and can cause disease in both wild birds and poultry. A pigeon-adapted variant of genotype VI NDV, termed pigeon paramyxovirus 1, is commonly isolated from Columbiform birds in the United States. Complete genomic characterization of t...

  5. Spread of white-nose syndrome on a network regulated by geography and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, Sean P; Kramer, Andrew M; Pulliam, J Tomlin; Zokan, Marcus A; Bowden, Sarah E; Barton, Heather D; Magori, Krisztian; Drake, John M

    2012-01-01

    Wildlife and plant diseases can reduce biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem services and threaten human health. Emerging pathogens have displayed a variety of spatial spread patterns due to differences in host ecology, including diffusive spread from an epicentre (West Nile virus), jump dispersal on a network (foot-and-mouth disease), or a combination of these (Sudden oak death). White-nose syndrome is a highly pathogenic infectious disease of bats currently spreading across North America. Understanding how bat ecology influences this spread is crucial to management of infected and vulnerable populations. Here we show that white-nose syndrome spread is not diffusive but rather mediated by patchily distributed habitat and large-scale gradients in winter climate. Simulations predict rapid expansion and infection of most counties with caves in the contiguous United States by winter 2105-2106. Our findings show the unique pattern of white-nose syndrome spread corresponds to ecological traits of the host and suggest hypotheses for transmission mechanisms acting at the local scale.

  6. Public value at risk from Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae spread in England and Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, Ben; Jones, Glyn

    2017-04-15

    Heritage gardens, heathland and woodland are increasingly under threat from the non-native tree and plant diseases Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae. However, there exist only limited literature that estimates the public non-market value that may be lost from a continued spread of Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae into these habitats. This paper therefore uses a contingent valuation survey to assess the non-extractive public use and non-use values at risk from an uncontrolled spread of these diseases in England and Wales. Results estimate that £1.446bn of public value is at risk in England and Wales per year from an uncontrolled spread of Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae. The greatest public value at risk, of £578  m/year, is from an uncontrolled spread of these diseases to heritage gardens, while the lowest public value at risk, of £386  m/year, is from disease spread to heathland. The findings of this paper should help policymakers make informed decisions as to the public resources to dedicate towards Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae control in England and Wales. In this regard, the current control programme to contain these diseases appears cost-effective in light of the public value at risk estimates produced by this paper. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Extrahepatic spread of hepatocellular carcinoma: a pictorial review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Seong Sook; Kim, Tae Kyoung; Sung, Kyu-Bo; Kim, Pyo Nyun; Ha, Hyun Kwon; Kim, Ah Young; Lee, Moon-Gyu

    2003-01-01

    Although extrahepatic spread of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is uncommon, it can be found anywhere in the body. Most extrahepatic metastases of HCC occur in patients with advanced-stage intrahepatic tumor, but incidental extrahepatic lesions have also occasionally been found in patients with early-stage intrahepatic HCC. The detection of extrahepatic metastatic disease is crucial when planning therapy for patients with HCC and should be used to avoid unnecessary surgical intervention. In this study we illustrate the radiologic findings of extrahepatic metastases of HCC involving various sites. The presumed mechanism of extrahepatic extension of HCC is also discussed. (orig.)

  8. Peristomal pagetoid spread of urothelial carcinoma of the ureter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fumio Ito

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Patients with ostomy including urinary stoma often develop peristomal complications, especially skin damage. The patient in this case was a 69-year old female with a history of urothelial carcinoma of the bladder and left ureter who underwent transurethral resection of a bladder tumor, nephroureterectomy and cystectomy combined with ureterocutaneostomy. Later, she had recurrence of urothelial carcinoma in the remaining ureter that spread to the peristomal epidermis, with a skin appearance resembling Paget’s disease. We report this case based on its clinical significance since we believe it is the first description of this condition in the literature.

  9. The current state of PET spread in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Hong

    2009-01-01

    Chinese nuclear medicine has 53 years history since 1956, and now is spreading in the country with the development of economy. Positron emission tomography (PET) has a rapid development in China, especially in the application of oncology, neurological and cardiologic diseases. The research of molecular imaging including PET also has been initiated. Zhejiang University as the largest university in China, has established the center of excellence in molecular imaging to improve the development of molecular imaging, which has active partnership and collaborative relationship with Japan, USA and European countries. The future of molecular imaging including PET in China is bright. (author)

  10. Seasonal variations of equatorial spread-F

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. V. Krishna Murthy

    Full Text Available The occurrence of spread-F at Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E, dip 0.5°N has been investigated on a seasonal basis in sunspot maximum and minimum years in terms of the growth rate of irregularities by the generalized collisional Rayleigh-Taylor (GRT instability mechanism which includes the gravitational and cross-field instability terms. The occurrence statistics of spread-F at Trivandrum have been obtained using quarter hourly ionograms. The nocturnal variations of the growth rate of irregularities by the GRT mechanism have been estimated for different seasons in sunspot maximum and minimum years at Trivandrum using h'F values and vertical drift velocities obtained from ionograms. It is found that the seasonal variation of spread-F occurrence at Trivandrum can, in general, be accounted for on the basis of the GRT mechanism.

  11. Seasonal variations of equatorial spread-F

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. S. V. Subbarao

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available The occurrence of spread-F at Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E, dip 0.5°N has been investigated on a seasonal basis in sunspot maximum and minimum years in terms of the growth rate of irregularities by the generalized collisional Rayleigh-Taylor (GRT instability mechanism which includes the gravitational and cross-field instability terms. The occurrence statistics of spread-F at Trivandrum have been obtained using quarter hourly ionograms. The nocturnal variations of the growth rate of irregularities by the GRT mechanism have been estimated for different seasons in sunspot maximum and minimum years at Trivandrum using h'F values and vertical drift velocities obtained from ionograms. It is found that the seasonal variation of spread-F occurrence at Trivandrum can, in general, be accounted for on the basis of the GRT mechanism.

  12. Diffusive spreading in nature, technology and society

    CERN Document Server

    Caro, Jürgen; Kärger, Jörg; Vogl, Gero

    2018-01-01

    This book deals with randomly moving objects and their spreading. The objects considered are particles like atoms and molecules, just as living beings like humans, animals, plants, bacteria and even abstract entities like ideas, rumors, information, innovations and linguistic features. The book explores and communicates the laws behind these movements and reports about astonishing similarities and very specific features typical of the given object under considerations. Leading scientists in disciplines as different as archeology, epidemics, linguistics and sociology, in contact with their colleagues from engineering, natural sciences and mathematics, introduce into the phenomena of spreading as relevant for their fields. An introductory chapter on “Spreading Fundamentals” provides a common basis for all these considerations, with a minimum of mathematics, selected and presented for enjoying rather than frustrating the reader.

  13. Linear theory of equatorial spread F

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudson, M.K.; Kennel, C.F.

    1975-01-01

    A fluid dispersion relation for the drift and interchange (Rayleigh-Taylor) modes in a collisional plasma forms the basis for a linear theory of equatorial spread F. The collisional drift mode growth rate will exceed the growth rate of the Rayleigh-Taylor mode at short perpendicular wavelengths and density gradient scale lengths, and the drift mode can grow on top side as well as on bottom side density gradients. However, below the F peak, where spread F predominates, it is concluded that both the drift and the Rayleigh-Taylor modes contribute to the total spread F spectrum, the Rayleigh-Taylor mode dominating at long and the drift mode at short perpendicular wavelengths above the ion Larmor radius

  14. Turbulent forces within river plumes affect spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Atreyee

    2012-08-01

    When rivers drain into oceans through narrow mouths, hydraulic forces squeeze the river water into buoyant plumes that are clearly visible in satellite images. Worldwide, river plumes not only disperse freshwater, sediments, and nutrients but also spread pollutants and organisms from estuaries into the open ocean. In the United States, the Columbia River—the largest river by volume draining into the Pacific Ocean from North America—generates a plume at its mouth that transports juvenile salmon and other fish into the ocean. Clearly, the behavior and spread of river plumes, such as the Columbia River plume, affect the nation's fishing industry as well as the global economy.

  15. The spread of gossip in American schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, P. G.; da Silva, L. R.; Andrade, J. S., Jr.; Herrmann, H. J.

    2007-06-01

    Gossip is defined as a rumor which specifically targets one individual and essentially only propagates within its friendship connections. How fast and how far a gossip can spread is for the first time assessed quantitatively in this study. For that purpose we introduce the "spread factor" and study it on empirical networks of school friendships as well as on various models for social connections. We discover that there exists an ideal number of friendship connections an individual should have to minimize the danger of gossip propagation.

  16. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  17. Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare; More, Simon; Bøtner, Anette

    2017-01-01

    Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia has been assessed according to the criteria of the Animal Health Law (AHL), in particular criteria of Article 7 on disease profile and impacts, Article 5 on the eligibility of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia to be listed, Article 9 for the categorisation...... judgement on each criterion at individual and, if no consensus was reached before, also at collective level. The output is composed of the categorical answer, and for the questions where no consensus was reached, the different supporting views are reported. Details on the methodology used...

  18. Lithium chloride inhibits early stages of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) replication in vitro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Fu-Rong; Xie, Yin-Li; Liu, Ze-Zhong; Shao, Jun-Jun; Li, Shi-Fang; Zhang, Yong-Guang; Chang, Hui-Yun

    2017-11-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes an economically important and highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle, swine, and sheep. FMD vaccine is the traditional way to protect against the disease, which can greatly reduce its occurrence. However, the use of FMD vaccines to protect early infection is limited. Therefore, the alternative strategy of applying antiviral agents is required to control the spread of FMDV in outbreak situations. As previously reported, LiCl has obviously inhibition effects on a variety of viruses such as transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV), infectious bronchitis coronavirus (IBV), and pseudorabies herpesvirus and EV-A71 virus. In this study, our findings were the first to demonstrate that LiCl inhibition of the FMDV replication. In this study, BHK-21 cell was dose-dependent with LiCl at various stages of FMDV. Virus titration assay was calculated by the 50% tissue culture infected dose (TCID 50 ) with the Reed and Muench method. The cytotoxicity assay of LiCl was performed by the CCK8 kit. The expression level of viral mRNA was measured by RT-qPCR. The results revealed LiCl can inhibit FMDV replication, but it cannot affect FMDV attachment stage and entry stage in the course of FMDV life cycle. Further studies confirmed that the LiCl affect the replication stage of FMDV, especially the early stages of FMDV replication. So LiCl has potential as an effective anti-FMDV drug. Therefore, LiCl may be an effective drug for the control of FMDV. Based on that, the mechanism of the antiviral effect of LiCl on FMDV infection is need to in-depth research in vivo. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Dangerous connections : the spread of infectious diseases on dynamic networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, K.Y.

    2016-01-01

    Are concurrent partnerships (multiple partnerships at a time) driving HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa? Opinions differ! While simulation studies show the potential impact concurrency can have, empirical evidence is inconclusive. In my PhD research I used mathematical models to understand how

  20. Experiments on non-isothermal spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrhard, P.

    1992-09-01

    Experiments are performed on axisymmetric spreading of viscous drops on glass plates. Two liquids are investigated: silicone oil (M-100) spreads to 'infinity' and paraffin oil spreads to a finite-radius steady state. The experiments with silicone oil partly recover the behaviour of previous workers data; those experiments with paraffin oil provide new data. It is found that gravitational forces dominate at long enough times while at shorter times capillary forces dominate. When the plate is heated or cooled with respect to the ambient gas, thermocapillary forces generate flows that alter the spreading dynamics. Heating (cooling) the plate is found to retard (augment) the streading. Moreover, in case of partial wetting, the finally-approached drop radius is smaller (larger) for a heated (cooled) plate. These data are all new. All these observations are in excellent quantitative agreement with the related model predictions of Ehrhard and Davis (1991). A breakdown of the axisymmetric character of the flow is observed only for very long times and/or very thin liquid layers. (orig.) [de

  1. DataSpread: Unifying Databases and Spreadsheets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendre, Mangesh; Sun, Bofan; Zhang, Ding; Zhou, Xinyan; Chang, Kevin ChenChuan; Parameswaran, Aditya

    2015-08-01

    Spreadsheet software is often the tool of choice for ad-hoc tabular data management, processing, and visualization, especially on tiny data sets. On the other hand, relational database systems offer significant power, expressivity, and efficiency over spreadsheet software for data management, while lacking in the ease of use and ad-hoc analysis capabilities. We demonstrate DataSpread, a data exploration tool that holistically unifies databases and spreadsheets. It continues to offer a Microsoft Excel-based spreadsheet front-end, while in parallel managing all the data in a back-end database, specifically, PostgreSQL. DataSpread retains all the advantages of spreadsheets, including ease of use, ad-hoc analysis and visualization capabilities, and a schema-free nature, while also adding the advantages of traditional relational databases, such as scalability and the ability to use arbitrary SQL to import, filter, or join external or internal tables and have the results appear in the spreadsheet. DataSpread needs to reason about and reconcile differences in the notions of schema, addressing of cells and tuples, and the current "pane" (which exists in spreadsheets but not in traditional databases), and support data modifications at both the front-end and the back-end. Our demonstration will center on our first and early prototype of the DataSpread, and will give the attendees a sense for the enormous data exploration capabilities offered by unifying spreadsheets and databases.

  2. Unidirectional spreading of oil under solid ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weerasuriya, S.A.; Yapa, P.D.

    1993-01-01

    Equations are presented to describe the unidirectional spreading of oil under solid ice covers floating in calm water. These spreading equations are derived using a simplified form of the Navier-Stokes equations, and cover both the constant discharge and the constant volume modes. An equation for computing final slick length is also given. Laboratory experiments using physical models were conducted to verify the equations. The experiments used oils of different viscosities, ice cover roughnesses varying from smooth to rough, and a variety of discharge conditions. The emphasis of the study was on the dominant spreading mechanism for oil under ice, which is the buoyancy-viscous phase. The laboratory results agree closely with the theoretical predictions. Discrepancies can be attributed to the experimental difficulties and errors introduced from the assumptions made in deriving the theory. The equations presented will be useful in computing spreading rate during an accidental oil spill or in contingency planning. The equations are simple to use, suitable for hand calculations or for incorporation into numerical models for oil spill simulation. 24 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  3. Modelling of fire spread in car parks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noordijk, L.M.; Lemaire, A.D.

    2005-01-01

    Currently, design codes assume that in a car park fire at most 3-4 vehicles are on fire at the same time. Recent incidents in car parks have drawn international attention to such assumptions and have raised questions as to the fire spreading mechanism and the resulting fire load on the structure.

  4. Energy spread in ion beam analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szilagyi, E.

    2000-01-01

    In ion beam analysis (IBA) the depth profiles are extracted from the experimentally determined energy profiles. The spectra, however, are subject to finite energy resolution of both extrinsic and intrinsic origin. Calculation of those effects such as instrumental beam, geometry and detection-related energy and angular spreads as well as energy straggling, multiple scattering and Doppler effects in the sample itself is not trivial, especially since it involves treatment of non-independent random processes. A proper account for energy spread is vital in IBA not only for correct extraction of elemental and isotopic depth profiles from the measured spectra, but already prior to data acquisition, in optimising experimental conditions to reach the required depth resolution at a certain depth. After a short review of the literature on the different energy spread contributions experimental examples are given from resonance, RBS, elastic BS and ERDA practice in which an account for energy spread contributions is essential. Some further examples illustrate extraction of structural information (roughness, pore size, etc.) from elaborated depth resolution calculation for such layer structures

  5. Energy spread in ion beam analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szilagyi, E. E-mail: szilagyi@rmki.kkfki.hu

    2000-03-01

    In ion beam analysis (IBA) the depth profiles are extracted from the experimentally determined energy profiles. The spectra, however, are subject to finite energy resolution of both extrinsic and intrinsic origin. Calculation of those effects such as instrumental beam, geometry and detection-related energy and angular spreads as well as energy straggling, multiple scattering and Doppler effects in the sample itself is not trivial, especially since it involves treatment of non-independent random processes. A proper account for energy spread is vital in IBA not only for correct extraction of elemental and isotopic depth profiles from the measured spectra, but already prior to data acquisition, in optimising experimental conditions to reach the required depth resolution at a certain depth. After a short review of the literature on the different energy spread contributions experimental examples are given from resonance, RBS, elastic BS and ERDA practice in which an account for energy spread contributions is essential. Some further examples illustrate extraction of structural information (roughness, pore size, etc.) from elaborated depth resolution calculation for such layer structures.

  6. The Potential Role of Direct and Indirect Contacts on Infection Spread in Dairy Farm Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianluigi Rossi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Animals' exchanges are considered the most effective route of between-farm infectious disease transmission. However, despite being often overlooked, the infection spread due to contaminated equipment, vehicles, or personnel proved to be important for several livestock epidemics. This study investigated the role of indirect contacts in a potential infection spread in the dairy farm network of the Province of Parma (Northern Italy. We built between-farm contact networks using data on cattle exchange (direct contacts, and on-farm visits by veterinarians (indirect contacts. We compared the features of the contact structures by using measures on static and temporal networks. We assessed the disease spreading potential of the direct and indirect network structures in the farm system by using data on the infection state of farms by paratuberculosis. Direct and indirect networks showed non-trivial differences with respect to connectivity, contact distribution, and super-spreaders identification. Furthermore, our analyses on paratuberculosis data suggested that the contributions of direct and indirect contacts on diseases spread are apparent at different spatial scales. Our results highlighted the potential role of indirect contacts in between-farm disease spread and underlined the need for a deeper understanding of these contacts to develop better strategies for prevention of livestock epidemics.

  7. The Natural History and Treatment Outcomes of Perineural Spread of Malignancy within the Head and Neck.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Timothy A; Nagle, Christina M; Bowman, James; Panizza, Benedict J

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the natural history of diseases enables the clinician to better diagnose and treat their patients. Perineural spread of head and neck cancers are poorly understood and often diagnosis is delayed resulting in poorer outcomes and more debilitating treatments. This article reviews a large personal series of head and neck malignancy presenting with perineural spread along almost exclusively the trigeminal and/or facial nerves. A detailed analysis of squamous cell carcinoma of cutaneous origin is presented including an analysis of likely primaries, which most often have occurred months to years prior. The importance of early detection is reinforced by the highly significant (p < 0.0001) differences in disease specific survival, which occur, depending on how far along a cranial nerve the disease has been allowed to spread.

  8. An adenovirus vectored mucosal adjuvant augments protection of mice immunized intranasally with an adenovirus-vectored foot-and-mouth disease virus subunit vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alejo, Diana M; Moraes, Mauro P; Liao, Xiaofen; Dias, Camila C; Tulman, Edan R; Diaz-San Segundo, Fayna; Rood, Debra; Grubman, Marvin J; Silbart, Lawrence K

    2013-04-26

    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a highly contagious pathogen that causes severe morbidity and economic losses to the livestock industry in many countries. The oral and respiratory mucosae are the main ports of entry of FMDV, so the stimulation of local immunity in these tissues may help prevent initial infection and viral spread. E. coli heat-labile enterotoxin (LT) has been described as one of the few molecules that have adjuvant activity at mucosal surfaces. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of replication-defective adenovirus 5 (Ad5) vectors encoding either of two LT-based mucosal adjuvants, LTB or LTR72. These vectored adjuvants were delivered intranasally to mice concurrent with an Ad5-FMDV vaccine (Ad5-A24) to assess their ability to augment mucosal and systemic humoral immune responses to Ad5-A24 and protection against FMDV. Mice receiving Ad5-A24 plus Ad5-LTR72 had higher levels of mucosal and systemic neutralizing antibodies than those receiving Ad5-A24 alone or Ad5-A24 plus Ad5-LTB. The vaccine plus Ad5-LTR72 group also demonstrated 100% survival after intradermal challenge with a lethal dose of homologous FMDV serotype A24. These results suggest that Ad5-LTR72 could be used as an important tool to enhance mucosal and systemic immunity against FMDV and potentially other pathogens with a common route of entry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A metric of influential spreading during contagion dynamics through the air transportation network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Nicolaides

    Full Text Available The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading--the geographic spreading centrality--which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.

  10. Protective Efficacy of Newcastle Disease Virus Expressing Soluble Trimeric Hemagglutinin against Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Influenza in Chickens and Mice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cornelissen, A.H.M.; Leeuw, de O.S.; Tacken, M.G.J.; Klos, H.C.; Vries, de R.P.; Boer-Luijtze, de E.A.; Zoelen-Bos, van D.J.; Rigter, A.; Rottier, P.J.M.; Moormann, R.J.M.; Haan, de C.A.M.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) causes a highly contagious often fatal disease in poultry, resulting in significant economic losses in the poultry industry. HPAIV H5N1 also poses a major public health threat as it can be transmitted directly from infected poultry to

  11. Mathematical model for HIV spreads control program with ART treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maimunah; Aldila, Dipo

    2018-03-01

    In this article, using a deterministic approach in a seven-dimensional nonlinear ordinary differential equation, we establish a mathematical model for the spread of HIV with an ART treatment intervention. In a simplified model, when no ART treatment is implemented, disease-free and the endemic equilibrium points were established analytically along with the basic reproduction number. The local stability criteria of disease-free equilibrium and the existing criteria of endemic equilibrium were analyzed. We find that endemic equilibrium exists when the basic reproduction number is larger than one. From the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of the complete model (with ART treatment), we find that the increased number of infected humans who follow the ART treatment program will reduce the basic reproduction number. We simulate this result also in the numerical experiment of the autonomous system to show how treatment intervention impacts the reduction of the infected population during the intervention time period.

  12. History of Smallpox and Its Spread in Human Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thèves, Catherine; Crubézy, Eric; Biagini, Philippe

    2016-08-01

    Smallpox is considered among the most devastating of human diseases. Its spread in populations, initiated for thousands of years following a probable transmission from an animal host, was concomitant with movements of people across regions and continents, trade and wars. Literature permitted to retrace the occurrence of epidemics from ancient times to recent human history, smallpox having affected all levels of past society including famous monarchs. The disease was officially declared eradicated in 1979 following intensive vaccination campaigns.Paleomicrobiology dedicated to variola virus is restricted to few studies, most unsuccessful, involving ancient material. Only one recent approach allowed the identification of viral DNA fragments from lung tissue of a 300-year-old body excavated from permafrost in Eastern Siberia; phylogenetic analysis revealed that this ancient strain was distinct from those described during the 20th century.

  13. Intracranial Management of Perineural Spread in the Trigeminal Nerve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redmond, Michael J; Panizza, Benedict J

    2016-04-01

    Since the mid-1960s surgeons have attempted to cure intracranial perineural spread (PNS) of cutaneous malignancies. Untreated patients with trigeminal PNS die from brainstem invasion and leptomeningeal disease. It was understood that resection with clear margins was potentially curative, but early surgical attempts were unsuccessful. The prevailing wisdom considered that this surgery failed to improve the results achieved with radiation therapy alone and was associated with high morbidity. However, with improved imaging, surgical equipment, and better understanding of cavernous sinus (CS) anatomy and access, contemporary surgeons can improve outcomes for this disease. The aim of this paper is to describe a technique to access the interdural compartment of the CS and treat PNS of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) in the intracranial trigeminal nerve and ganglion. It is based on the experience of the Queensland Skull Base Unit, Australia in managing PNS of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (cSCCHN).

  14. How does increasing immunity change spread kernel parameters in subsequent outbreaks? – A simulation study on Bluetongue Virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Bødker, Rene; Enøe, Claes

    Modelling the spatial spread of vector borne diseases, one may choose methods ranging from statistic to process oriented. One often used statistic tool is the empirical spread kernel. An empiric spread kernel fitted to outbreak data provides hints on the spread mechanisms, and may provide a good...... estimate on how future epidemics could proceed under similar conditions. However, a number of variables influence the spread of vector borne diseases. If one of these changes significantly after an outbreak, it needs to be incorporated into the model to improve the prediction on future outbreaks. Examples...... of such changes are: vaccinations, acquired immunity, vector density and control, meteorological variations, wind pattern, and so on. Including more and more variables leads to a more process oriented model. A full process oriented approach simulates the movement of virus between vectors and host, describing...

  15. [A brief history of the natural causes of human disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lips-Castro, Walter

    2015-01-01

    In the study of the causes of disease that have arisen during the development of humankind, one can distinguish three major perspectives: the natural, the supernatural, and the artificial. In this paper we distinguish the rational natural causes of disease from the irrational natural causes. Within the natural and rational causal approaches of disease, we can highlight the Egyptian theory of putrid intestinal materials called "wechdu", the humoral theory, the atomistic theory, the contagious theory, the cellular theory, the molecular (genetic) theory, and the ecogenetic theory. Regarding the irrational, esoteric, and mystic causal approaches to disease, we highlight the astrological, the alchemical, the iatrochemical, the iatromechanical, and others (irritability, solidism, brownism, and mesmerism).

  16. DISEASES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pletscher-Frankild, Sune; Pallejà, Albert; Tsafou, Kalliopi

    2015-01-01

    Text mining is a flexible technology that can be applied to numerous different tasks in biology and medicine. We present a system for extracting disease-gene associations from biomedical abstracts. The system consists of a highly efficient dictionary-based tagger for named entity recognition...... of human genes and diseases, which we combine with a scoring scheme that takes into account co-occurrences both within and between sentences. We show that this approach is able to extract half of all manually curated associations with a false positive rate of only 0.16%. Nonetheless, text mining should...... not stand alone, but be combined with other types of evidence. For this reason, we have developed the DISEASES resource, which integrates the results from text mining with manually curated disease-gene associations, cancer mutation data, and genome-wide association studies from existing databases...

  17. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  18. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  19. Spread of edema with brain tumors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosoya, Takaaki

    1987-01-01

    Cerebral edema associated with brain tumors is visualized on CT as a hypodensity lesion involving mainly the white matter. The detailed features of its evolution were investigated in a review of CT examinations performed on 56 patients with brain tumors, with the following results. 1. The susceptibility to edema varied according to the types of fibers. Association fibers were more sensitive to edema than projection and commissural fibers. 2. The edema had a characteristic of spreading along not only the association fibers but also the projection and commissural fibers. 3. The spread of edema along the association fibers was interupted in sites of convergence of the fibers such as the external capsule and just beneath the central sulcus in the certrum semiovale. 4. In some cases with intra-axial tumors, the edema extended mainly in the projection and commissural fibers considered to be more resistant to it. For example, in cases with parietal and temporal intra-axial tumors, the posterior limb of the internal capsule was often more edematous than the external capsule. 5. The edema associated with meningioma had a characteristic of spreading mainly along the association fibers. When situated close to the corpus callosum, however, the commissural fibers were also involved. Edema extending mainly in the internal capsule, thus, was rarely observed in meningioma. 6. There was unique pattern of spread of edema in frontal tumors, which differentiated their CT pattern. Therefore, the location of the tumor could be correctly diagnosed by the pattern of the edema extension, even near the central sulcus or in the operculum region. (author)

  20. Spreading of a relativistic wave packet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, C.; Jabs, A.

    1983-01-01

    A simple general proof that the spreading velocity of a relativistic free wave packet of the Broglie waves is limited is presented. For a wide class of packets it is confirmed that the limit is the velocity of light, and it is shown how this limit is approached when the width Δp of the wave packet in momentum space tends to infinity and the minimum width σ(t=o) in ordinary space tends to zero. (Author) [pt

  1. The Equilibrium Spreading Tension of Pulmonary Surfactant

    OpenAIRE

    Dagan, Maayan P.; Hall, Stephen B.

    2015-01-01

    Monomolecular films at an air/water interface coexist at the equilibrium spreading tension (γe) with the bulk phase from which they form. For individual phospholipids, γe is single-valued, and separates conditions at which hydrated vesicles adsorb from tensions at which overcompressed monolayers collapse. With pulmonary surfactant, isotherms show that monolayers compressed on the surface of bubbles coexist with the three-dimensional collapsed phase over a range of surface tensions. γe therefo...

  2. Physical model for membrane protrusions during spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamaraux, F; Ali, O; Fourcade, B; Keller, S; Bruckert, F

    2008-01-01

    During cell spreading onto a substrate, the kinetics of the contact area is an observable quantity. This paper is concerned with a physical approach to modeling this process in the case of ameboid motility where the membrane detaches itself from the underlying cytoskeleton at the leading edge. The physical model we propose is based on previous reports which highlight that membrane tension regulates cell spreading. Using a phenomenological feedback loop to mimic stress-dependent biochemistry, we show that the actin polymerization rate can be coupled to the stress which builds up at the margin of the contact area between the cell and the substrate. In the limit of small variation of membrane tension, we show that the actin polymerization rate can be written in a closed form. Our analysis defines characteristic lengths which depend on elastic properties of the membrane–cytoskeleton complex, such as the membrane–cytoskeleton interaction, and on molecular parameters, the rate of actin polymerization. We discuss our model in the case of axi-symmetric and non-axi-symmetric spreading and we compute the characteristic time scales as a function of fundamental elastic constants such as the strength of membrane–cytoskeleton adherence

  3. Diffusion, spread, and migration of botulinum toxin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Castaneda, Juan; Jankovic, Joseph; Comella, Cynthia; Dashtipour, Khashayar; Fernandez, Hubert H; Mari, Zoltan

    2013-11-01

    Botulinum toxin (BoNT) is an acetylcholine release inhibitor and a neuromuscular blocking agent used for the treatment of a variety of neurologic and medical conditions. The efficacy and safety of BoNT depends on accurate selection and identification of intended targets but also may be determined by other factors, including physical spread of the molecule from the injection site, passive diffusion, and migration to distal sites via axonal or hematogenous transport. The passive kinetic dispersion of the toxin away from the injection site in a gradient-dependent manner may also play a role in toxin spread. In addition to unique properties of the various BoNT products, volume and dilution may also influence local and systemic distribution of BoNT. Most of the local and remote complications of BoNT injections are thought to be due to unwanted spread or diffusion of the toxin's biologic activity into adjacent and distal muscles. Despite widespread therapeutic and cosmetic use of BoNT over more than three decades, there is a remarkable paucity of published data on the mechanisms of distribution and its effects on clinical outcomes. The primary aim of this article is to critically review the available experimental and clinical literature and place it in the practical context. © 2013 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

  4. Innate immune responses against foot-and-mouth disease virus: current understanding and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summerfield, Artur; Guzylack-Piriou, Laurence; Harwood, Lisa; McCullough, Kenneth C

    2009-03-15

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) represents one of the most economically important diseases of farm animals. The basis for the threat caused by this virus is the high speed of replication, short incubation time, high contagiousness, and high mutation rate resulting in constant antigenic changes. Thus, although protective immune responses against FMD virus (FMDV) can be efficacious, the rapidity of virus replication and spread can outpace immune defence development and overrun the immune system. FMDV can also evade innate immune responses through its ability to shut down cellular protein synthesis, including IFN type I, in susceptible epithelial cells. This is important for virus evolution, as FMDV is quite sensitive to the action of IFN. Despite this, innate immune responses are probably induced in vivo, although detailed studies on this subject are lacking. Accordingly, this interaction of FMDV with cells of the innate immune system is of particular interest. Dendritic cells (DC) can be infected by FMDV and support viral RNA replication, and viral protein synthesis but the latter is inefficient or abortive, leading most often to incomplete replication and progeny virus release. As a result DC can be activated, and particularly in the case of plasmacytoid DC (pDC), this is manifest in terms of IFN-alpha release. Our current state of knowledge on innate immune responses induced by FMDV is still only at a relatively early stage of understanding. As we progress, the investigations in this area will help to improve the design of current vaccines and the development of novel control strategies against FMD.

  5. The foot and mouth disease network in the southern cone of South America: an example of regional governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrales Irrazábal, H A

    2012-08-01

    The fact that foot and mouth disease is highly contagious, easily spread and of major commercial importance makes it a redoubtable challenge for animal health in South American countries and the world over. A number of factors impact directly on the effectiveness of national programmes to eradicate foot and mouth disease. Therefore, in order to meet the challenges posed by today's globalised world, it is of the utmost importance that national level eradication programmes be considered state policies and that they be the subject of broad political agreement at the highest level and consolidated as regional programmes between national Veterinary Services. The programmes, agreements and technical cooperation projects established jointly by Member Countries of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) were a key factor in building management capacity to control foot and mouth disease in the area. Another key factor has been a partnership with one of the most sensitive sectors--the private production sector. Its active and responsible participation in operational functions has done much to strengthen and ensure the competitive development of South American countries and consolidate their role as global beef exporters. However, to prevent further outbreaks it is essential to maintain and reinforce the structure of national programmes and to have strong and highly trained Veterinary Services and sufficient funding to ensure efficient and sustainable plans. These plans must enable Veterinary Services, by means of good governance, to implement effective measures in the areas of animal health and international trade in animals and animal products/by-products, thereby achieving rapid and more equitable social and economic development.

  6. A mathematical model of the spread of the AIDS virus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyman, J.M.; Stanley, E.A.

    1987-01-01

    A mathematical computer model of the spread of the AIDS epidemic in the US is being developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This model predicts the spreading of the HIV infection, and subsequent development of clinical AIDS in various population groups. These groups are chosen according to age, frequency and type of sexual contact, population density, and region of the country. Type of sexual contact includes not only the heterosexual, homosexual differentiation but also repeated contacts with such primary partners as spouses. In conjunction with the computer model, we are developing a database containing relevant information on the natural history of the viral infection, the prevalence of the infection and of clinical AIDS in the population, the distribution of people into sexual behavior groups as a function of age and information on interregional contacts. The effects of variable infectiousness and sexual activity during the long period from infection to disease are found to have a major impact on the predictions of the model. 24 refs., 5 figs.

  7. How Long Is Mono Contagious?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Here's how it works: Mono is short for mononucleosis . It's usually caused by an infection with the ... May 2018 More on this topic for: Teens Mononucleosis How Do Doctors Test for Mono? Can a ...

  8. Spreading Of Avian Flu On Duck And Its Impact On Social Economy: Lesson Learnt From Avian Flu Cases On Chicken

    OpenAIRE

    Nyak Ilham

    2013-01-01

    Bird flu disease that attacks duck dismissed the notion of duck immune to bird flu disease. Learning from the experience of bird flu disease that attacks poultry in the year of 2004-2005, necessary to measure the spread of disease prevention bird flu in ducks. This paper aims to describe the business and trade patterns of duck associated with the spread of avian influenza and predict the socio-economic impact of bird flu on duck farms in Indonesia. Duck rearing patterns mostly are in the e...

  9. Default Spread dan Term Spread sebagai Variabel Proxy Siklus Bisnis pada Model Fama-French

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Hendra

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to apply the Fama-French models and test the effect of alternative variable of bond yield spread, default spread (RBBB – RAAA and RAAA – RF, and the term spread (RSUN10-RSUN1, as proxy variables of the business cycle, in IDX stock data during 2005-2010. Four types of asset pricing models tested are Sharpe-Lintner CAPM, Fama-French models, Hwang et al.model, and hybrid model. The results showed that the size effect and value effect has an impact on excess stock returns. Slopes of market beta, SMB, and HML are more sensitive to stock big size and high B / M. Default spreads and term spreads in Hwang et al. model can explain the value effect, and weakly explain the size effect, meanwhile the power of explanation disappeared on Hybrid models. Based on the assessment adjusted R2 and the frequency of rejection of non-zero alpha, is found that the hybrid model is the most suitable model.  

  10. Spreading in online social networks: the role of social reinforcement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Muhua; Lü, Linyuan; Zhao, Ming

    2013-07-01

    Some epidemic spreading models are usually applied to analyze the propagation of opinions or news. However, the dynamics of epidemic spreading and information or behavior spreading are essentially different in many aspects. Centola's experiments [Science 329, 1194 (2010)] on behavior spreading in online social networks showed that the spreading is faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks. This result contradicts with the former understanding that random networks are preferable for spreading than regular networks. To describe the spreading in online social networks, a unknown-known-approved-exhausted four-status model was proposed, which emphasizes the effect of social reinforcement and assumes that the redundant signals can improve the probability of approval (i.e., the spreading rate). Performing the model on regular and random networks, it is found that our model can well explain the results of Centola's experiments on behavior spreading and some former studies on information spreading in different parameter space. The effects of average degree and network size on behavior spreading process are further analyzed. The results again show the importance of social reinforcement and are accordant with Centola's anticipation that increasing the network size or decreasing the average degree will enlarge the difference of the density of final approved nodes between regular and random networks. Our work complements the former studies on spreading dynamics, especially the spreading in online social networks where the information usually requires individuals' confirmations before being transmitted to others.

  11. Vectorised Spreading Activation algorithm for centrality measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Troussov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Spreading Activation is a family of graph-based algorithms widely used in areas such as information retrieval, epidemic models, and recommender systems. In this paper we introduce a novel Spreading Activation (SA method that we call Vectorised Spreading Activation (VSA. VSA algorithms, like “traditional” SA algorithms, iteratively propagate the activation from the initially activated set of nodes to the other nodes in a network through outward links. The level of the node’s activation could be used as a centrality measurement in accordance with dynamic model-based view of centrality that focuses on the outcomes for nodes in a network where something is flowing from node to node across the edges. Representing the activation by vectors allows the use of the information about various dimensionalities of the flow and the dynamic of the flow. In this capacity, VSA algorithms can model multitude of complex multidimensional network flows. We present the results of numerical simulations on small synthetic social networks and multi­dimensional network models of folksonomies which show that the results of VSA propagation are more sensitive to the positions of the initial seed and to the community structure of the network than the results produced by traditional SA algorithms. We tentatively conclude that the VSA methods could be instrumental to develop scalable and computationally efficient algorithms which could achieve synergy between computation of centrality indexes with detection of community structures in networks. Based on our preliminary results and on improvements made over previous studies, we foresee advances and applications in the current state of the art of this family of algorithms and their applications to centrality measurement.

  12. Asymptotic behaviour for a system describing epidemics with migration and spatial spread of infection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirane, M.; Kouachi, S.

    1991-08-01

    A parabolic system with linear interactions is considered with specific applications to the spread of infectious diseases. Using a Payne-type functional we prove the global existence of a unique solution and analyze its large time behaviour. (author). 14 refs

  13. Spread and epidemiology of Clostridium difficile polymerase chain reaction ribotype 027/toxinotype III in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goorhuis, A.; van der Kooi, T.; Vaessen, N.; Dekker, F. W.; van den Berg, R.; Harmanus, C.; van den Hof, S.; Notermans, D. W.; Kuijper, E. J.

    2007-01-01

    After reports of emerging outbreaks in Canada and the United States, Clostridium difficile-associated disease (CDAD) due to polymerase chain reaction ribotype 027 was detected in 2 medium-to-large hospitals in The Netherlands in 2005. National surveillance was initiated to investigate the spread and

  14. Directional spread parameter at intermediate water depth

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SanilKumar, V.; Deo, M.C.; Anand, N.M.; AshokKumar, K.

    ’ involves only the significant wave height, zero crossing wave period and water depth, the spreading function based on ‘s 3 ’ can be used for practical appli- cation. In the model based on ‘s 3 ’ the mean wave direction is an input and this has...-linearity parameter can be recommended for practical use as it provides an averaged distribution. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi, for funding the project titled “Directional wave modelling...

  15. Trigeminal perineural spread of renal cell carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hornik, Alejandro; Rosenblum, Jordan; Biller, Jose

    2012-01-01

    A 55-year-old man had a five-day history of “pins and needles” sensation on the left chin. Examination showed decreased pinprick sensation on the territory of the left mandibular branch of the trigeminal nerve. Brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with gadolinium showed enhancement involving the left mandibular branch. Computed tomography (CT) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis showed a left kidney mass diagnosed as renal carcinoma following nephrectomy. The “numb-chin” syndrome heralds or accompanies systemic malignancies. Trigeminal perineural spread has been well-documented in head and neck neoplasms, however, to our knowledge, it has not been reported in renal neoplasms. (author)

  16. Simultaneous spreading and evaporation: recent developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Sergey; Trybala, Anna; Rubio, Ramon G; Kovalchuk, Nina; Starov, Victor; Velarde, Manuel G

    2014-04-01

    The recent progress in theoretical and experimental studies of simultaneous spreading and evaporation of liquid droplets on solid substrates is discussed for pure liquids including nanodroplets, nanosuspensions of inorganic particles (nanofluids) and surfactant solutions. Evaporation of both complete wetting and partial wetting liquids into a nonsaturated vapour atmosphere are considered. However, the main attention is paid to the case of partial wetting when the hysteresis of static contact angle takes place. In the case of complete wetting the spreading/evaporation process proceeds in two stages. A theory was suggested for this case and a good agreement with available experimental data was achieved. In the case of partial wetting the spreading/evaporation of a sessile droplet of pure liquid goes through four subsequent stages: (i) the initial stage, spreading, is relatively short (1-2 min) and therefore evaporation can be neglected during this stage; during the initial stage the contact angle reaches the value of advancing contact angle and the radius of the droplet base reaches its maximum value, (ii) the first stage of evaporation is characterised by the constant value of the radius of the droplet base; the value of the contact angle during the first stage decreases from static advancing to static receding contact angle; (iii) during the second stage of evaporation the contact angle remains constant and equal to its receding value, while the radius of the droplet base decreases; and (iv) at the third stage of evaporation both the contact angle and the radius of the droplet base decrease until the drop completely disappears. It has been shown theoretically and confirmed experimentally that during the first and second stages of evaporation the volume of droplet to power 2/3 decreases linearly with time. The universal dependence of the contact angle during the first stage and of the radius of the droplet base during the second stage on the reduced time has been

  17. Dynamic Modeling of CDS Index Tranche Spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorn, Jochen

    This paper provides a Market Model which implies a dynamics for standardized CDS index tranche spreads, i.e. tranches which securitise CDS index series and dispose of predefined subordination. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling...... options on structured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the effects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke...... tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options with standard characteristics....

  18. Population Movement and Virus Spreading: HEV Spreading in a Pilgrimage City, Mashhad in Northeast Iran; an Example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadi Ghezeldasht, Sanaz; Miri, Rahele; Hedayatimoghadam, Mohamadreza; Shamsian, Aliakbar; Bidkhori, Hamidreza; Fathimoghadam, Fahad; Rezaee, Seyyed Abdorrahim

    2013-01-01

    Hepatitis E Virus (HEV) infection is a significant public health concern and responsible for large outbreaks of acute hepatitis in poor sanitary and living conditions. To investigate the impact of population movements on virus spreading, a large-scale population-based survey was performed in a pilgrimage- tourism area, the great Mashhad, capital city of Khorasan province. A cross-sectional study was carried out among 1582 randomly selected individuals from general population of Mashhad, north east of Iran, between May to September 2009. Serum samples were tested for total anti-HEV antibody using a specific enzyme linked immunoassay (ELISA) kit. The prevalence of HEV infection was 14.2% (225/1582) with a maximum of 25.5 % (14/55) in densely populated areas. The highest prevalence was observed in visitant areas (≥ 20%) near the holly shrine with crowded hotels and inns. The differences between these areas and other districts were statistically significant (P socio-economic status, Illiterate individuals were significantly at higher risk for infection than educated persons (P < 0.001). These findings demonstrated that, high prevalence of HEV is related to populated district, which can reach to the highest rate in hotels and inns close to visitants. Traditional sanitation and water supplying systems are the second important factor for the virus transmission. Therefore, it can be concluded that such areas need efficient surveillance systems to prevent the spreading of infectious diseases.

  19. The spatial spread of schistosomiasis: A multidimensional network model applied to Saint-Louis region, Senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciddio, Manuela; Mari, Lorenzo; Sokolow, Susanne H.; De Leo, Giulio A.; Casagrandi, Renato; Gatto, Marino

    2017-10-01

    Schistosomiasis is a parasitic, water-related disease that is prevalent in tropical and subtropical areas of the world, causing severe and chronic consequences especially among children. Here we study the spatial spread of this disease within a network of connected villages in the endemic region of the Lower Basin of the Senegal River, in Senegal. The analysis is performed by means of a spatially explicit metapopulation model that couples local-scale eco-epidemiological dynamics with spatial mechanisms related to human mobility (estimated from anonymized mobile phone records), snail dispersal and hydrological transport of schistosome larvae along the main water bodies of the region. Results show that the model produces epidemiological patterns consistent with field observations, and point out the key role of spatial connectivity on the spread of the disease. These findings underline the importance of considering different transport pathways in order to elaborate disease control strategies that can be effective within a network of connected populations.

  20. The impact of heterogeneous response on coupled spreading dynamics in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Xiaoyu; Tang, Ming; Zou, Yong; Guan, Shuguang; Zhou, Jie

    2017-10-01

    Many recent studies have demonstrated that individual awareness of disease may significantly affect the spreading process of infectious disease. In the majority of these studies, the response of the awareness is generally treated homogeneously. Considering of diversity and heterogeneity in the human behavior which widely exist under different circumstances, in this paper we study heterogeneous response when people are aware of the prevalence of infectious diseases. Specifically, we consider that an individual with more neighbors may take more preventive measures as a reaction when he is aware of the disease. A suppression strength is introduced to describe such heterogeneity, and we find that a more evident heterogeneity may cause a more effective suppressing effect to the spreading of epidemics. A mean-field theory is developed to support the results which are verified on the multiplex networks with different interlayer degree correlation.

  1. Altitudinal Barrier to the Spread of an Invasive Species: Could the Pyrenean Chain Slow the Natural Spread of the Pinewood Nematode?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julien Haran

    Full Text Available Mountain ranges may delimit the distribution of native species as well as constitute potential barriers to the spread of invasive species. The invasive pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is a severe forest pest inducing pine wilt disease. It is vectored in Europe by a native long-horned beetle, Monochamus galloprovincialis. This study explored the potential of the Pyrenean chain to slow or prevent the natural spread of nematode-infested beetles from the Iberian Peninsula, where the nematode is established and is expanding its range, towards France and the rest of Europe. An analysis of the genetic structure and migration patterns of the beetle populations throughout the Pyrenean mountain range was combined with a spread model simulating the potential movements of nematode-infested beetles across it. The central part of the Pyrenees, which corresponds to the highest elevation zone, was shown to prevent gene flow between the French and Spanish populations of M. galloprovincialis on each side of the mountains. Conversely, strong admixture was detected between populations located on both sides of low elevation hills, and especially at the east and west extremities of the mountain range. Simulations of the spread of nematode-infested beetles under various thresholds of beetle survival and pine wilt disease expression gave results consistent with the variation in genetic make-up, suggesting that western and eastern hillsides may represent corridors favoring natural spread of the nematode from the Iberian Peninsula to France. Simulations also showed that temperature rise due to climate change may significantly reduce the extent of the barrier formed by highest elevations. Our results support the hypothesis that the Pyrenean chain represents a partial barrier to the natural spread of nematode-infested beetles. These results, which have to be considered together with potential human-assisted long-distance spread of the nematode, highlight

  2. Locating the source of spreading in temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Qiangjuan; Zhao, Chengli; Zhang, Xue; Yi, Dongyun

    2017-02-01

    The topological structure of many real networks changes with time. Thus, locating the sources of a temporal network is a creative and challenging problem, as the enormous size of many real networks makes it unfeasible to observe the state of all nodes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to solve this problem, named the backward temporal diffusion process. The proposed algorithm calculates the shortest temporal distance to locate the transmission source. We assume that the spreading process can be modeled as a simple diffusion process and by consensus dynamics. To improve the location accuracy, we also adopt four strategies to select which nodes should be observed by ranking their importance in the temporal network. Our paper proposes a highly accurate method for locating the source in temporal networks and is, to the best of our knowledge, a frontier work in this field. Moreover, our framework has important significance for controlling the transmission of diseases or rumors and formulating immediate immunization strategies.

  3. Effective distances for epidemics spreading on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iannelli, Flavio; Koher, Andreas; Brockmann, Dirk; Hövel, Philipp; Sokolov, Igor M.

    2017-01-01

    We show that the recently introduced logarithmic metrics used to predict disease arrival times on complex networks are approximations of more general network-based measures derived from random walks theory. Using the daily air-traffic transportation data we perform numerical experiments to compare the infection arrival time with this alternative metric that is obtained by accounting for multiple walks instead of only the most probable path. The comparison with direct simulations reveals a higher correlation compared to the shortest-path approach used previously. In addition our method allows to connect fundamental observables in epidemic spreading with the cumulant-generating function of the hitting time for a Markov chain. Our results provides a general and computationally efficient approach using only algebraic methods.

  4. The genomic signatures of Shigella evolution, adaptation and geographical spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The, Hao Chung; Thanh, Duy Pham; Holt, Kathryn E; Thomson, Nicholas R; Baker, Stephen

    2016-04-01

    Shigella spp. are some of the key pathogens responsible for the global burden of diarrhoeal disease. These facultative intracellular bacteria belong to the family Enterobacteriaceae, together with other intestinal pathogens, such as Escherichia coli and Salmonella spp. The genus Shigella comprises four different species, each consisting of several serogroups, all of which show phenotypic similarity, including invasive pathogenicity. DNA sequencing suggests that this similarity results from the convergent evolution of different Shigella spp. founders. Here, we review the evolutionary relationships between Shigella spp. and E . coli, and we highlight how the genomic plasticity of these bacteria and their acquisition of a distinctive virulence plasmid have enabled the development of such highly specialized pathogens. Furthermore, we discuss the insights that genotyping and whole-genome sequencing have provided into the phylogenetics and intercontinental spread of Shigella spp.

  5. Spread of Measles Virus in Europe

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-10-06

    Dr. Paul Rota, team lead for the Measles Laboratory, Division of Viral Diseases, at CDC, talks about a measles virus survey in Europe, 2008-2011.  Created: 10/6/2011 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID) and National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).   Date Released: 10/6/2011.

  6. Infections Unlikely to be Spread Through Swimming Pools

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Water Home Infections Unlikely to be Spread Through Swimming Pools Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) Recommend on ... included below. Infections Unlikely to be Spread by Swimming Pools Head Lice Head lice are unlikely to ...

  7. Spreading depolarisations and outcome after traumatic brain injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartings, Jed A; Bullock, M Ross; Okonkwo, David O

    2011-01-01

    Pathological waves of spreading mass neuronal depolarisation arise repeatedly in injured, but potentially salvageable, grey matter in 50-60% of patients after traumatic brain injury (TBI). We aimed to ascertain whether spreading depolarisations are independently associated with unfavourable...

  8. Stopping the Spread of Germs at Home, Work and School

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Pandemic Other Stopping the Spread of Germs at Home, Work & School Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook ... everyone from getting germs or spreading germs at home, work, or school. Clean and disinfect surfaces or objects. ...

  9. Recording, analysis, and interpretation of spreading depolarizations in neurointensive care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dreier, Jens P; Fabricius, Martin; Ayata, Cenk

    2017-01-01

    Spreading depolarizations (SD) are waves of abrupt, near-complete breakdown of neuronal transmembrane ion gradients, are the largest possible pathophysiologic disruption of viable cerebral gray matter, and are a crucial mechanism of lesion development. Spreading depolarizations are increasingly r...

  10. Principles of spread-spectrum communication systems

    CERN Document Server

    Torrieri, Don

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a concise but lucid explanation of the fundamentals of spread-spectrum systems with an emphasis on theoretical principles. The choice of specific topics is tempered by the author’s judgment of their practical significance and interest to both researchers and system designers. The book contains many improved derivations of the classical theory and presents the latest research results that bring the reader to the frontier of the field. This third edition includes new coverage of topics such as CDMA networks, acquisition and synchronization in DS-CDMA cellular networks, hopsets for FH-CDMA ad hoc networks, implications of information theory, the central limit theorem, the power spectral density of FH/CPM complex envelopes, adaptive filters, and adaptive arrays.   ·         Focuses on the fundamentals of spread-spectrum communication systems and provides current examples of their applications ·         Includes problem sets at the end of each chapter to assist readers in co...

  11. Wave-like spread of Ebola Zaire.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade the Zaire strain of Ebola virus (ZEBOV has emerged repeatedly into human populations in central Africa and caused massive die-offs of gorillas and chimpanzees. We tested the view that emergence events are independent and caused by ZEBOV variants that have been long resident at each locality. Phylogenetic analyses place the earliest known outbreak at Yambuku, Democratic Republic of Congo, very near to the root of the ZEBOV tree, suggesting that viruses causing all other known outbreaks evolved from a Yambuku-like virus after 1976. The tendency for earlier outbreaks to be directly ancestral to later outbreaks suggests that outbreaks are epidemiologically linked and may have occurred at the front of an advancing wave. While the ladder-like phylogenetic structure could also bear the signature of positive selection, our statistical power is too weak to reach a conclusion in this regard. Distances among outbreaks indicate a spread rate of about 50 km per year that remains consistent across spatial scales. Viral evolution is clocklike, and sequences show a high level of small-scale spatial structure. Genetic similarity decays with distance at roughly the same rate at all spatial scales. Our analyses suggest that ZEBOV has recently spread across the region rather than being long persistent at each outbreak locality. Controlling the impact of Ebola on wild apes and human populations may be more feasible than previously recognized.

  12. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  13. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  14. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  15. A metapopulation model for the spread of MRSA in correctional facilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Beauparlant

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The spread of methicillin-resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA in health-care settings has become increasingly difficult to control and has since been able to spread in the general community. The prevalence of MRSA within the general public has caused outbreaks in groups of people in close quarters such as military barracks, gyms, daycare centres and correctional facilities. Correctional facilities are of particular importance for spreading MRSA, as inmates are often in close proximity and have limited access to hygienic products and clean clothing. Although these conditions are ideal for spreading MRSA, a recent study has suggested that recurrent epidemics are caused by the influx of colonized or infected individuals into the correctional facility. In this paper, we further investigate the effects of community dynamics on the spread of MRSA within the correctional facility and determine whether recidivism has a significant effect on disease dynamics. Using a simplified hotspot model ignoring disease dynamics within the correctional facility, as well as two metapopulation models, we demonstrate that outbreaks in correctional facilities can be driven by community dynamics even when spread between inmates is restricted. We also show that disease dynamics within the correctional facility and their effect on the outlying community may be ignored due to the smaller size of the incarcerated population. This will allow construction of simpler models that consider the effects of many MRSA hotspots interacting with the general community. It is suspected that the cumulative effects of hotspots for MRSA would have a stronger feedback effect in other community settings. Keywords: methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, hotspots, mathematical model, metapopulation model, Latin Hypercube Sampling

  16. Características clínicas e epidemiológicas do adulto contagiante da criança com tuberculose Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of contagious adult of tuberculosis in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João AB Lima

    2004-06-01

    of cohabitation with a contagious adult. OBJECTIVE: To create a profile of a typical adult with contagious tuberculosis (as identified through the public health system living with a child who has been diagnosed with tuberculosis. METHOD: Case study. Children younger than 14 years of age who were diagnosed with tuberculosis were included. Parents were interviewed using structured questionnaires. Means and standard deviations were analyzed using the Student's t-test. Fisher's exact test or the Dz test was used for comparisons. RESULTS: Fifty children, representing 96% of those diagnosed with tuberculosis in the Porto Alegre health care system between July 20, 2001 and August 10, 2002, were included. The mean age was 76 months, and 60% were girls. The classic forms of pulmonary presentation (consolidation or cavitation were seen in 38%. The majority of the children were diagnosed in the hospital and came from homes in which there were (a mean of 6 cohabitants and a total family income less than 2 times the local minimum wage. Using ELISA, HIV co-infection was identified in 25% (although not all were tested. The children regularly visited places other than their homes. In 78% of cases, the contagious adult was identified. These contagious adults were mostly males (56%, and the mean age was 32. In most cases (79%, the contagious adult was a relative, usually a parent. Within this group of adults with contagious tuberculosis, HIV co-infection was identified in 43% of those tested. CONCLUSIONS: Adults with contagious tuberculosis living in the home continue to be the most likely source of tuberculosis infection in children. Co-infection with HIV in these pediatric patients, as well as in the cohabiting adults with contagious tuberculosis, is a significant finding. It must be emphasized that the possibility of contact with contagious individuals in the home should be explored in every diagnosed case of pediatric tuberculosis.

  17. A fundamental look at fire spread in California chaparral

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Weise; Thomas Fletcher; Larry Baxter; Shankar Mahalingam; Xiangyang Zhou; Patrick Pagni; Rod Linn; Bret Butler

    2004-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service National Fire Plan funded a research program to study fire spread in live fuels of the southwestern United States. In the U.S. current operational fire spread models do not distinguish between live and dead fuels in a sophisticated manner because the study of live fuels has been limited. The program is experimentally examining fire spread at 3...

  18. The joint estimation of term structures and credit spreads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houweling, P.; Hoek, J.; Kleibergen, F.R.

    1999-01-01

    We present a new framework for the joint estimation of the default-free government term structure and corporate credit spread curves. By using a data set of liquid, German mark denominated bonds, we show that this yields more realistic spreads than traditionally obtained spread curves that result

  19. Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murat, Atilim; Tokat, Ekin

    2009-01-01

    In oil markets, the crack spread refers to the crude-product price relationship. Refiners are major participants in oil markets and they are primarily exposed to the crack spread. In other words, refiner activity is substantially driven by the objective of protecting the crack spread. Moreover, oil consumers are active participants in the oil hedging market and they are frequently exposed to the crack spread. From another perspective, hedge funds are heavily using crack spread to speculate in oil markets. Based on the high volume of crack spread futures trading in oil markets, the question we want to raise is whether the crack spread futures can be a good predictor of oil price movements. We investigated first whether there is a causal relationship between the crack spread futures and the spot oil markets in a vector error correction framework. We found the causal impact of crack spread futures on spot oil market both in the long- and the short-run after April 2003 where we detected a structural break in the model. To examine the forecasting performance, we use the random walk model (RWM) as a benchmark, and we also evaluate the forecasting power of crack spread futures against the crude oil futures. The results showed that (a) both the crack spread futures and the crude oil futures outperformed the RWM; and (b) the crack spread futures are almost as good as the crude oil futures in predicting the movements in spot oil markets. (author)

  20. Epidemic spreading and immunization strategy in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez Zuzek, Lucila G.; Buono, Camila; Braunstein, Lidia A.

    2015-09-01

    A more connected world has brought major consequences such as facilitate the spread of diseases all over the world to quickly become epidemics, reason why researchers are concentrated in modeling the propagation of epidemics and outbreaks in multilayer networks. In this networks all nodes interact in different layers with different type of links. However, in many scenarios such as in the society, a multiplex network framework is not completely suitable since not all individuals participate in all layers. In this paper, we use a partially overlapped, multiplex network where only a fraction of the individuals are shared by the layers. We develop a mitigation strategy for stopping a disease propagation, considering the Susceptible-Infected- Recover model, in a system consisted by two layers. We consider a random immunization in one of the layers and study the effect of the overlapping fraction in both, the propagation of the disease and the immunization strategy. Using branching theory, we study this scenario theoretically and via simulations and find a lower epidemic threshold than in the case without strategy.