Learning Probabilistic Logic Models from Probabilistic Examples.
Chen, Jianzhong; Muggleton, Stephen; Santos, José
2008-10-01
We revisit an application developed originally using abductive Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for modeling inhibition in metabolic networks. The example data was derived from studies of the effects of toxins on rats using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) time-trace analysis of their biofluids together with background knowledge representing a subset of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). We now apply two Probabilistic ILP (PILP) approaches - abductive Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and PRogramming In Statistical modeling (PRISM) to the application. Both approaches support abductive learning and probability predictions. Abductive SLPs are a PILP framework that provides possible worlds semantics to SLPs through abduction. Instead of learning logic models from non-probabilistic examples as done in ILP, the PILP approach applied in this paper is based on a general technique for introducing probability labels within a standard scientific experimental setting involving control and treated data. Our results demonstrate that the PILP approach provides a way of learning probabilistic logic models from probabilistic examples, and the PILP models learned from probabilistic examples lead to a significant decrease in error accompanied by improved insight from the learned results compared with the PILP models learned from non-probabilistic examples.
Learning Probabilistic Decision Graphs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred; Dalgaard, Jens; Silander, Tomi
2004-01-01
efficient representations than Bayesian networks. In this paper we present an algorithm for learning PDGs from data. First experiments show that the algorithm is capable of learning optimal PDG representations in some cases, and that the computational efficiency of PDG models learned from real-life data...
Machine learning a probabilistic perspective
Murphy, Kevin P
2012-01-01
Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic method...
Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence.
Ghahramani, Zoubin
2015-05-28
How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.
Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence
Ghahramani, Zoubin
2015-05-01
How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.
Error Discounting in Probabilistic Category Learning
Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Little, Daniel R.
2011-01-01
The assumption in some current theories of probabilistic categorization is that people gradually attenuate their learning in response to unavoidable error. However, existing evidence for this error discounting is sparse and open to alternative interpretations. We report 2 probabilistic-categorization experiments in which we investigated error…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marco Scutari
2017-03-01
Full Text Available It is well known in the literature that the problem of learning the structure of Bayesian networks is very hard to tackle: Its computational complexity is super-exponential in the number of nodes in the worst case and polynomial in most real-world scenarios. Efficient implementations of score-based structure learning benefit from past and current research in optimization theory, which can be adapted to the task by using the network score as the objective function to maximize. This is not true for approaches based on conditional independence tests, called constraint-based learning algorithms. The only optimization in widespread use, backtracking, leverages the symmetries implied by the definitions of neighborhood and Markov blanket. In this paper we illustrate how backtracking is implemented in recent versions of the bnlearn R package, and how it degrades the stability of Bayesian network structure learning for little gain in terms of speed. As an alternative, we describe a software architecture and framework that can be used to parallelize constraint-based structure learning algorithms (also implemented in bnlearn and we demonstrate its performance using four reference networks and two real-world data sets from genetics and systems biology. We show that on modern multi-core or multiprocessor hardware parallel implementations are preferable over backtracking, which was developed when single-processor machines were the norm.
Probabilistic Learning by Rodent Grid Cells.
Cheung, Allen
2016-10-01
Mounting evidence shows mammalian brains are probabilistic computers, but the specific cells involved remain elusive. Parallel research suggests that grid cells of the mammalian hippocampal formation are fundamental to spatial cognition but their diverse response properties still defy explanation. No plausible model exists which explains stable grids in darkness for twenty minutes or longer, despite being one of the first results ever published on grid cells. Similarly, no current explanation can tie together grid fragmentation and grid rescaling, which show very different forms of flexibility in grid responses when the environment is varied. Other properties such as attractor dynamics and grid anisotropy seem to be at odds with one another unless additional properties are assumed such as a varying velocity gain. Modelling efforts have largely ignored the breadth of response patterns, while also failing to account for the disastrous effects of sensory noise during spatial learning and recall, especially in darkness. Here, published electrophysiological evidence from a range of experiments are reinterpreted using a novel probabilistic learning model, which shows that grid cell responses are accurately predicted by a probabilistic learning process. Diverse response properties of probabilistic grid cells are statistically indistinguishable from rat grid cells across key manipulations. A simple coherent set of probabilistic computations explains stable grid fields in darkness, partial grid rescaling in resized arenas, low-dimensional attractor grid cell dynamics, and grid fragmentation in hairpin mazes. The same computations also reconcile oscillatory dynamics at the single cell level with attractor dynamics at the cell ensemble level. Additionally, a clear functional role for boundary cells is proposed for spatial learning. These findings provide a parsimonious and unified explanation of grid cell function, and implicate grid cells as an accessible neuronal population
Probabilistic models and machine learning in structural bioinformatics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hamelryck, Thomas
2009-01-01
. Recently, probabilistic models and machine learning methods based on Bayesian principles are providing efficient and rigorous solutions to challenging problems that were long regarded as intractable. In this review, I will highlight some important recent developments in the prediction, analysis...
Teacher learning about probabilistic reasoning in relation to ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
It was, however, the 'genuineness\\' of teacher learning which was the issue that the findings have to address. Therefore a speculative, hopeful strategy for affecting teacher learning in mathematics teacher education practice is to sustain disequilibrium between dichotomies such as formal and intuitive probabilistic reasoning ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arnaud Gotlieb
2013-02-01
Full Text Available Iterative imperative programs can be considered as infinite-state systems computing over possibly unbounded domains. Studying reachability in these systems is challenging as it requires to deal with an infinite number of states with standard backward or forward exploration strategies. An approach that we call Constraint-based reachability, is proposed to address reachability problems by exploring program states using a constraint model of the whole program. The keypoint of the approach is to interpret imperative constructions such as conditionals, loops, array and memory manipulations with the fundamental notion of constraint over a computational domain. By combining constraint filtering and abstraction techniques, Constraint-based reachability is able to solve reachability problems which are usually outside the scope of backward or forward exploration strategies. This paper proposes an interpretation of classical filtering consistencies used in Constraint Programming as abstract domain computations, and shows how this approach can be used to produce a constraint solver that efficiently generates solutions for reachability problems that are unsolvable by other approaches.
Perceptual learning as improved probabilistic inference in early sensory areas.
Bejjanki, Vikranth R; Beck, Jeffrey M; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Pouget, Alexandre
2011-05-01
Extensive training on simple tasks such as fine orientation discrimination results in large improvements in performance, a form of learning known as perceptual learning. Previous models have argued that perceptual learning is due to either sharpening and amplification of tuning curves in early visual areas or to improved probabilistic inference in later visual areas (at the decision stage). However, early theories are inconsistent with the conclusions of psychophysical experiments manipulating external noise, whereas late theories cannot explain the changes in neural responses that have been reported in cortical areas V1 and V4. Here we show that we can capture both the neurophysiological and behavioral aspects of perceptual learning by altering only the feedforward connectivity in a recurrent network of spiking neurons so as to improve probabilistic inference in early visual areas. The resulting network shows modest changes in tuning curves, in line with neurophysiological reports, along with a marked reduction in the amplitude of pairwise noise correlations.
Zweben, Monte
1993-01-01
The GERRY scheduling system developed by NASA Ames with assistance from the Lockheed Space Operations Company, and the Lockheed Artificial Intelligence Center, uses a method called constraint-based iterative repair. Using this technique, one encodes both hard rules and preference criteria into data structures called constraints. GERRY repeatedly attempts to improve schedules by seeking repairs for violated constraints. The system provides a general scheduling framework which is being tested on two NASA applications. The larger of the two is the Space Shuttle Ground Processing problem which entails the scheduling of all the inspection, repair, and maintenance tasks required to prepare the orbiter for flight. The other application involves power allocation for the NASA Ames wind tunnels. Here the system will be used to schedule wind tunnel tests with the goal of minimizing power costs. In this paper, we describe the GERRY system and its application to the Space Shuttle problem. We also speculate as to how the system would be used for manufacturing, transportation, and military problems.
Probabilistic learning and inference in schizophrenia
Averbeck, Bruno B.; Evans, Simon; Chouhan, Viraj; Bristow, Eleanor; Shergill, Sukhwinder S.
2010-01-01
Patients with schizophrenia make decisions on the basis of less evidence when required to collect information to make an inference, a behavior often called jumping to conclusions. The underlying basis for this behaviour remains controversial. We examined the cognitive processes underpinning this finding by testing subjects on the beads task, which has been used previously to elicit jumping to conclusions behaviour, and a stochastic sequence learning task, with a similar decision theoretic structure. During the sequence learning task, subjects had to learn a sequence of button presses, while receiving noisy feedback on their choices. We fit a Bayesian decision making model to the sequence task and compared model parameters to the choice behavior in the beads task in both patients and healthy subjects. We found that patients did show a jumping to conclusions style; and those who picked early in the beads task tended to learn less from positive feedback in the sequence task. This favours the likelihood of patients selecting early because they have a low threshold for making decisions, and that they make choices on the basis of relatively little evidence. PMID:20810252
Probabilistic learning and inference in schizophrenia.
Averbeck, Bruno B; Evans, Simon; Chouhan, Viraj; Bristow, Eleanor; Shergill, Sukhwinder S
2011-04-01
Patients with schizophrenia make decisions on the basis of less evidence when required to collect information to make an inference, a behavior often called jumping to conclusions. The underlying basis for this behavior remains controversial. We examined the cognitive processes underpinning this finding by testing subjects on the beads task, which has been used previously to elicit jumping to conclusions behavior, and a stochastic sequence learning task, with a similar decision theoretic structure. During the sequence learning task, subjects had to learn a sequence of button presses, while receiving a noisy feedback on their choices. We fit a Bayesian decision making model to the sequence task and compared model parameters to the choice behavior in the beads task in both patients and healthy subjects. We found that patients did show a jumping to conclusions style; and those who picked early in the beads task tended to learn less from positive feedback in the sequence task. This favours the likelihood of patients selecting early because they have a low threshold for making decisions, and that they make choices on the basis of relatively little evidence. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Learning Probabilistic Inference through Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity.
Pecevski, Dejan; Maass, Wolfgang
2016-01-01
Numerous experimental data show that the brain is able to extract information from complex, uncertain, and often ambiguous experiences. Furthermore, it can use such learnt information for decision making through probabilistic inference. Several models have been proposed that aim at explaining how probabilistic inference could be performed by networks of neurons in the brain. We propose here a model that can also explain how such neural network could acquire the necessary information for that from examples. We show that spike-timing-dependent plasticity in combination with intrinsic plasticity generates in ensembles of pyramidal cells with lateral inhibition a fundamental building block for that: probabilistic associations between neurons that represent through their firing current values of random variables. Furthermore, by combining such adaptive network motifs in a recursive manner the resulting network is enabled to extract statistical information from complex input streams, and to build an internal model for the distribution p (*) that generates the examples it receives. This holds even if p (*) contains higher-order moments. The analysis of this learning process is supported by a rigorous theoretical foundation. Furthermore, we show that the network can use the learnt internal model immediately for prediction, decision making, and other types of probabilistic inference.
Learning Probabilistic Inference through Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity123
Pecevski, Dejan
2016-01-01
Abstract Numerous experimental data show that the brain is able to extract information from complex, uncertain, and often ambiguous experiences. Furthermore, it can use such learnt information for decision making through probabilistic inference. Several models have been proposed that aim at explaining how probabilistic inference could be performed by networks of neurons in the brain. We propose here a model that can also explain how such neural network could acquire the necessary information for that from examples. We show that spike-timing-dependent plasticity in combination with intrinsic plasticity generates in ensembles of pyramidal cells with lateral inhibition a fundamental building block for that: probabilistic associations between neurons that represent through their firing current values of random variables. Furthermore, by combining such adaptive network motifs in a recursive manner the resulting network is enabled to extract statistical information from complex input streams, and to build an internal model for the distribution p* that generates the examples it receives. This holds even if p* contains higher-order moments. The analysis of this learning process is supported by a rigorous theoretical foundation. Furthermore, we show that the network can use the learnt internal model immediately for prediction, decision making, and other types of probabilistic inference. PMID:27419214
Probabilistic learning of nonlinear dynamical systems using sequential Monte Carlo
Schön, Thomas B.; Svensson, Andreas; Murray, Lawrence; Lindsten, Fredrik
2018-05-01
Probabilistic modeling provides the capability to represent and manipulate uncertainty in data, models, predictions and decisions. We are concerned with the problem of learning probabilistic models of dynamical systems from measured data. Specifically, we consider learning of probabilistic nonlinear state-space models. There is no closed-form solution available for this problem, implying that we are forced to use approximations. In this tutorial we will provide a self-contained introduction to one of the state-of-the-art methods-the particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithm-which has proven to offer a practical approximation. This is a Monte Carlo based method, where the particle filter is used to guide a Markov chain Monte Carlo method through the parameter space. One of the key merits of the particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is that it is guaranteed to converge to the "true solution" under mild assumptions, despite being based on a particle filter with only a finite number of particles. We will also provide a motivating numerical example illustrating the method using a modeling language tailored for sequential Monte Carlo methods. The intention of modeling languages of this kind is to open up the power of sophisticated Monte Carlo methods-including particle Metropolis-Hastings-to a large group of users without requiring them to know all the underlying mathematical details.
Lessons learned on probabilistic methodology for precursor analyses
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Babst, Siegfried; Wielenberg, Andreas; Gaenssmantel, Gerhard
2016-01-01
Based on its experience in precursor assessment of operating experience from German NPP and related international activities in the field, GRS has identified areas for enhancing probabilistic methodology. These are related to improving the completeness of PSA models, to insufficiencies in probabilistic assessment approaches, and to enhancements of precursor assessment methods. Three examples from the recent practice in precursor assessments illustrating relevant methodological insights are provided and discussed in more detail. Our experience reinforces the importance of having full scope, current PSA models up to Level 2 PSA and including hazard scenarios for precursor analysis. Our lessons learned include that PSA models should be regularly updated regarding CCF data and inclusion of newly discovered CCF mechanisms or groups. Moreover, precursor classification schemes should be extended to degradations and unavailabilities of the containment function. Finally, PSA and precursor assessments should put more emphasis on the consideration of passive provisions for safety, e. g. by sensitivity cases.
Lessons learned on probabilistic methodology for precursor analyses
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Babst, Siegfried [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH, Berlin (Germany); Wielenberg, Andreas; Gaenssmantel, Gerhard [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH, Garching (Germany)
2016-11-15
Based on its experience in precursor assessment of operating experience from German NPP and related international activities in the field, GRS has identified areas for enhancing probabilistic methodology. These are related to improving the completeness of PSA models, to insufficiencies in probabilistic assessment approaches, and to enhancements of precursor assessment methods. Three examples from the recent practice in precursor assessments illustrating relevant methodological insights are provided and discussed in more detail. Our experience reinforces the importance of having full scope, current PSA models up to Level 2 PSA and including hazard scenarios for precursor analysis. Our lessons learned include that PSA models should be regularly updated regarding CCF data and inclusion of newly discovered CCF mechanisms or groups. Moreover, precursor classification schemes should be extended to degradations and unavailabilities of the containment function. Finally, PSA and precursor assessments should put more emphasis on the consideration of passive provisions for safety, e. g. by sensitivity cases.
Games people play: How video games improve probabilistic learning.
Schenk, Sabrina; Lech, Robert K; Suchan, Boris
2017-09-29
Recent research suggests that video game playing is associated with many cognitive benefits. However, little is known about the neural mechanisms mediating such effects, especially with regard to probabilistic categorization learning, which is a widely unexplored area in gaming research. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate the neural correlates of probabilistic classification learning in video gamers in comparison to non-gamers. Subjects were scanned in a 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner while performing a modified version of the weather prediction task. Behavioral data yielded evidence for better categorization performance of video gamers, particularly under conditions characterized by stronger uncertainty. Furthermore, a post-experimental questionnaire showed that video gamers had acquired higher declarative knowledge about the card combinations and the related weather outcomes. Functional imaging data revealed for video gamers stronger activation clusters in the hippocampus, the precuneus, the cingulate gyrus and the middle temporal gyrus as well as in occipital visual areas and in areas related to attentional processes. All these areas are connected with each other and represent critical nodes for semantic memory, visual imagery and cognitive control. Apart from this, and in line with previous studies, both groups showed activation in brain areas that are related to attention and executive functions as well as in the basal ganglia and in memory-associated regions of the medial temporal lobe. These results suggest that playing video games might enhance the usage of declarative knowledge as well as hippocampal involvement and enhances overall learning performance during probabilistic learning. In contrast to non-gamers, video gamers showed better categorization performance, independently of the uncertainty of the condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Machine learning, computer vision, and probabilistic models in jet physics
CERN. Geneva; NACHMAN, Ben
2015-01-01
In this talk we present recent developments in the application of machine learning, computer vision, and probabilistic models to the analysis and interpretation of LHC events. First, we will introduce the concept of jet-images and computer vision techniques for jet tagging. Jet images enabled the connection between jet substructure and tagging with the fields of computer vision and image processing for the first time, improving the performance to identify highly boosted W bosons with respect to state-of-the-art methods, and providing a new way to visualize the discriminant features of different classes of jets, adding a new capability to understand the physics within jets and to design more powerful jet tagging methods. Second, we will present Fuzzy jets: a new paradigm for jet clustering using machine learning methods. Fuzzy jets view jet clustering as an unsupervised learning task and incorporate a probabilistic assignment of particles to jets to learn new features of the jet structure. In particular, we wi...
Weickert, Thomas W.; Goldberg, Terry E.; Egan, Michael F.; Apud, Jose A.; Meeter, Martijn; Myers, Catherine E.; Gluck, Mark A; Weinberger, Daniel R.
2010-01-01
Background While patients with schizophrenia display an overall probabilistic category learning performance deficit, the extent to which this deficit occurs in unaffected siblings of patients with schizophrenia is unknown. There are also discrepant findings regarding probabilistic category learning acquisition rate and performance in patients with schizophrenia. Methods A probabilistic category learning test was administered to 108 patients with schizophrenia, 82 unaffected siblings, and 121 healthy participants. Results Patients with schizophrenia displayed significant differences from their unaffected siblings and healthy participants with respect to probabilistic category learning acquisition rates. Although siblings on the whole failed to differ from healthy participants on strategy and quantitative indices of overall performance and learning acquisition, application of a revised learning criterion enabling classification into good and poor learners based on individual learning curves revealed significant differences between percentages of sibling and healthy poor learners: healthy (13.2%), siblings (34.1%), patients (48.1%), yielding a moderate relative risk. Conclusions These results clarify previous discrepant findings pertaining to probabilistic category learning acquisition rate in schizophrenia and provide the first evidence for the relative risk of probabilistic category learning abnormalities in unaffected siblings of patients with schizophrenia, supporting genetic underpinnings of probabilistic category learning deficits in schizophrenia. These findings also raise questions regarding the contribution of antipsychotic medication to the probabilistic category learning deficit in schizophrenia. The distinction between good and poor learning may be used to inform genetic studies designed to detect schizophrenia risk alleles. PMID:20172502
Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joseph G Makin
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.
Impairment of probabilistic reward-based learning in schizophrenia.
Weiler, Julia A; Bellebaum, Christian; Brüne, Martin; Juckel, Georg; Daum, Irene
2009-09-01
Recent models assume that some symptoms of schizophrenia originate from defective reward processing mechanisms. Understanding the precise nature of reward-based learning impairments might thus make an important contribution to the understanding of schizophrenia and the development of treatment strategies. The present study investigated several features of probabilistic reward-based stimulus association learning, namely the acquisition of initial contingencies, reversal learning, generalization abilities, and the effects of reward magnitude. Compared to healthy controls, individuals with schizophrenia exhibited attenuated overall performance during acquisition, whereas learning rates across blocks were similar to the rates of controls. On the group level, persons with schizophrenia were, however, unable to learn the reversal of the initial reward contingencies. Exploratory analysis of only the subgroup of individuals with schizophrenia who showed significant learning during acquisition yielded deficits in reversal learning with low reward magnitudes only. There was further evidence of a mild generalization impairment of the persons with schizophrenia in an acquired equivalence task. In summary, although there was evidence of intact basic processing of reward magnitudes, individuals with schizophrenia were impaired at using this feedback for the adaptive guidance of behavior.
Online probabilistic learning with an ensemble of forecasts
Thorey, Jean; Mallet, Vivien; Chaussin, Christophe
2016-04-01
Our objective is to produce a calibrated weighted ensemble to forecast a univariate time series. In addition to a meteorological ensemble of forecasts, we rely on observations or analyses of the target variable. The celebrated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the probabilistic forecasts. However applying the CRPS on weighted empirical distribution functions (deriving from the weighted ensemble) may introduce a bias because of which minimizing the CRPS does not produce the optimal weights. Thus we propose an unbiased version of the CRPS which relies on clusters of members and is strictly proper. We adapt online learning methods for the minimization of the CRPS. These methods generate the weights associated to the members in the forecasted empirical distribution function. The weights are updated before each forecast step using only past observations and forecasts. Our learning algorithms provide the theoretical guarantee that, in the long run, the CRPS of the weighted forecasts is at least as good as the CRPS of any weighted ensemble with weights constant in time. In particular, the performance of our forecast is better than that of any subset ensemble with uniform weights. A noteworthy advantage of our algorithm is that it does not require any assumption on the distributions of the observations and forecasts, both for the application and for the theoretical guarantee to hold. As application example on meteorological forecasts for photovoltaic production integration, we show that our algorithm generates a calibrated probabilistic forecast, with significant performance improvements on probabilistic diagnostic tools (the CRPS, the reliability diagram and the rank histogram).
Causal Learning from Probabilistic Events in 24-Month-Olds: An Action Measure
Waismeyer, Anna; Meltzoff, Andrew N.; Gopnik, Alison
2015-01-01
How do young children learn about causal structure in an uncertain and variable world? We tested whether they can use observed probabilistic information to solve causal learning problems. In two experiments, 24-month-olds observed an adult produce a probabilistic pattern of causal evidence. The toddlers then were given an opportunity to design…
The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Florent Meyniel
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems
Probabilistic forecasting of wind power generation using extreme learning machine
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wan, Can; Xu, Zhao; Pinson, Pierre
2014-01-01
an extreme learning machine (ELM)-based probabilistic forecasting method for wind power generation. To account for the uncertainties in the forecasting results, several bootstrapmethods have been compared for modeling the regression uncertainty, based on which the pairs bootstrap method is identified......Accurate and reliable forecast of wind power is essential to power system operation and control. However, due to the nonstationarity of wind power series, traditional point forecasting can hardly be accurate, leading to increased uncertainties and risks for system operation. This paper proposes...... with the best performance. Consequently, a new method for prediction intervals formulation based on theELMand the pairs bootstrap is developed.Wind power forecasting has been conducted in different seasons using the proposed approach with the historical wind power time series as the inputs alone. The results...
Human-Guided Learning for Probabilistic Logic Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Phillip Odom
2018-06-01
Full Text Available Advice-giving has been long explored in the artificial intelligence community to build robust learning algorithms when the data is noisy, incorrect or even insufficient. While logic based systems were effectively used in building expert systems, the role of the human has been restricted to being a “mere labeler” in recent times. We hypothesize and demonstrate that probabilistic logic can provide an effective and natural way for the expert to specify domain advice. Specifically, we consider different types of advice-giving in relational domains where noise could arise due to systematic errors or class-imbalance inherent in the domains. The advice is provided as logical statements or privileged features that are thenexplicitly considered by an iterative learning algorithm at every update. Our empirical evidence shows that human advice can effectively accelerate learning in noisy, structured domains where so far humans have been merely used as labelers or as designers of the (initial or final structure of the model.
Learning probabilistic features for robotic navigation using laser sensors.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fidel Aznar
Full Text Available SLAM is a popular task used by robots and autonomous vehicles to build a map of an unknown environment and, at the same time, to determine their location within the map. This paper describes a SLAM-based, probabilistic robotic system able to learn the essential features of different parts of its environment. Some previous SLAM implementations had computational complexities ranging from O(Nlog(N to O(N(2, where N is the number of map features. Unlike these methods, our approach reduces the computational complexity to O(N by using a model to fuse the information from the sensors after applying the Bayesian paradigm. Once the training process is completed, the robot identifies and locates those areas that potentially match the sections that have been previously learned. After the training, the robot navigates and extracts a three-dimensional map of the environment using a single laser sensor. Thus, it perceives different sections of its world. In addition, in order to make our system able to be used in a low-cost robot, low-complexity algorithms that can be easily implemented on embedded processors or microcontrollers are used.
Learning probabilistic features for robotic navigation using laser sensors.
Aznar, Fidel; Pujol, Francisco A; Pujol, Mar; Rizo, Ramón; Pujol, María-José
2014-01-01
SLAM is a popular task used by robots and autonomous vehicles to build a map of an unknown environment and, at the same time, to determine their location within the map. This paper describes a SLAM-based, probabilistic robotic system able to learn the essential features of different parts of its environment. Some previous SLAM implementations had computational complexities ranging from O(Nlog(N)) to O(N(2)), where N is the number of map features. Unlike these methods, our approach reduces the computational complexity to O(N) by using a model to fuse the information from the sensors after applying the Bayesian paradigm. Once the training process is completed, the robot identifies and locates those areas that potentially match the sections that have been previously learned. After the training, the robot navigates and extracts a three-dimensional map of the environment using a single laser sensor. Thus, it perceives different sections of its world. In addition, in order to make our system able to be used in a low-cost robot, low-complexity algorithms that can be easily implemented on embedded processors or microcontrollers are used.
Probabilistic Motor Sequence Yields Greater Offline and Less Online Learning than Fixed Sequence.
Du, Yue; Prashad, Shikha; Schoenbrun, Ilana; Clark, Jane E
2016-01-01
It is well acknowledged that motor sequences can be learned quickly through online learning. Subsequently, the initial acquisition of a motor sequence is boosted or consolidated by offline learning. However, little is known whether offline learning can drive the fast learning of motor sequences (i.e., initial sequence learning in the first training session). To examine offline learning in the fast learning stage, we asked four groups of young adults to perform the serial reaction time (SRT) task with either a fixed or probabilistic sequence and with or without preliminary knowledge (PK) of the presence of a sequence. The sequence and PK were manipulated to emphasize either procedural (probabilistic sequence; no preliminary knowledge (NPK)) or declarative (fixed sequence; with PK) memory that were found to either facilitate or inhibit offline learning. In the SRT task, there were six learning blocks with a 2 min break between each consecutive block. Throughout the session, stimuli followed the same fixed or probabilistic pattern except in Block 5, in which stimuli appeared in a random order. We found that PK facilitated the learning of a fixed sequence, but not a probabilistic sequence. In addition to overall learning measured by the mean reaction time (RT), we examined the progressive changes in RT within and between blocks (i.e., online and offline learning, respectively). It was found that the two groups who performed the fixed sequence, regardless of PK, showed greater online learning than the other two groups who performed the probabilistic sequence. The groups who performed the probabilistic sequence, regardless of PK, did not display online learning, as indicated by a decline in performance within the learning blocks. However, they did demonstrate remarkably greater offline improvement in RT, which suggests that they are learning the probabilistic sequence offline. These results suggest that in the SRT task, the fast acquisition of a motor sequence is driven
Sari, Dwi Ivayana; Hermanto, Didik
2017-08-01
This research is a developmental research of probabilistic thinking-oriented learning tools for probability materials at ninth grade students. This study is aimed to produce a good probabilistic thinking-oriented learning tools. The subjects were IX-A students of MTs Model Bangkalan. The stages of this development research used 4-D development model which has been modified into define, design and develop. Teaching learning tools consist of lesson plan, students' worksheet, learning teaching media and students' achievement test. The research instrument used was a sheet of learning tools validation, a sheet of teachers' activities, a sheet of students' activities, students' response questionnaire and students' achievement test. The result of those instruments were analyzed descriptively to answer research objectives. The result was teaching learning tools in which oriented to probabilistic thinking of probability at ninth grade students which has been valid. Since teaching and learning tools have been revised based on validation, and after experiment in class produced that teachers' ability in managing class was effective, students' activities were good, students' responses to the learning tools were positive and the validity, sensitivity and reliability category toward achievement test. In summary, this teaching learning tools can be used by teacher to teach probability for develop students' probabilistic thinking.
Cerebellar tDCS does not improve performance in probabilistic classification learning
N. Seyed Majidi; M.C. Verhage (Claire); O. Donchin (Opher); P.J. Holland (Peter); M.A. Frens (Maarten); J.N. van der Geest (Jos)
2016-01-01
textabstractIn this study, the role of the cerebellum in a cognitive learning task using transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) was investigated. Using a weather prediction task, subjects had to learn the probabilistic associations between a stimulus (a combination of cards) and an outcome
The Gain-Loss Model: A Probabilistic Skill Multimap Model for Assessing Learning Processes
Robusto, Egidio; Stefanutti, Luca; Anselmi, Pasquale
2010-01-01
Within the theoretical framework of knowledge space theory, a probabilistic skill multimap model for assessing learning processes is proposed. The learning process of a student is modeled as a function of the student's knowledge and of an educational intervention on the attainment of specific skills required to solve problems in a knowledge…
Distinct Roles of Dopamine and Subthalamic Nucleus in Learning and Probabilistic Decision Making
Coulthard, Elizabeth J.; Bogacz, Rafal; Javed, Shazia; Mooney, Lucy K.; Murphy, Gillian; Keeley, Sophie; Whone, Alan L.
2012-01-01
Even simple behaviour requires us to make decisions based on combining multiple pieces of learned and new information. Making such decisions requires both learning the optimal response to each given stimulus as well as combining probabilistic information from multiple stimuli before selecting a response. Computational theories of decision making…
Learning System of Web Navigation Patterns through Hypertext Probabilistic Grammars
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Augusto Cortez Vasquez
2015-01-01
Full Text Available One issue of real interest in the area of web data mining is to capture users’ activities during connection and extract behavior patterns that help define their preferences in order to improve the design of future pages adapting websites interfaces to individual users. This research is intended to provide, first of all, a presentation of the methodological foundations of the use of probabilistic languages to identify relevant or most visited websites. Secondly, the web sessions are represented by graphs and probabilistic context-free grammars so that the sessions that have the highest probabilities are considered the most visited and most preferred, therefore, the most important in relation to a particular topic. It aims to develop a tool for processing web sessions obtained from a log server represented by probabilistic context-free grammars.
Probabilistically-Cued Patterns Trump Perfect Cues in Statistical Language Learning.
Lany, Jill; Gómez, Rebecca L
2013-01-01
Probabilistically-cued co-occurrence relationships between word categories are common in natural languages but difficult to acquire. For example, in English, determiner-noun and auxiliary-verb dependencies both involve co-occurrence relationships, but determiner-noun relationships are more reliably marked by correlated distributional and phonological cues, and appear to be learned more readily. We tested whether experience with co-occurrence relationships that are more reliable promotes learning those that are less reliable using an artificial language paradigm. Prior experience with deterministically-cued contingencies did not promote learning of less reliably-cued structure, nor did prior experience with relationships instantiated in the same vocabulary. In contrast, prior experience with probabilistically-cued co-occurrence relationships instantiated in different vocabulary did enhance learning. Thus, experience with co-occurrence relationships sharing underlying structure but not vocabulary may be an important factor in learning grammatical patterns. Furthermore, experience with probabilistically-cued co-occurrence relationships, despite their difficultly for naïve learners, lays an important foundation for learning novel probabilistic structure.
Chikalov, Igor; Yao, Peggy; Moshkov, Mikhail; Latombe, Jean-Claude
2011-01-01
. The intrinsic strength of an individual H-bond has been studied from an energetic viewpoint, but energy alone may not be a very good predictor.Methods: This paper describes inductive learning methods to train protein-independent probabilistic models of H
Comparison of plant-specific probabilistic safety assessments and lessons learned
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Balfanz, H.P.; Berg, H.P.; Steininger, U.
2001-01-01
Probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) have been performed for all German nuclear power plants in operation. These assessments are mainly based on the recent German PSA guide and an earlier draft, respectively. However, comparison of these PSA show differences in the results which are discussed in this paper. Lessons learned from this comparison and further development of the PSA methodology are described. (orig.) [de
Schuck, Nicolas W; Petok, Jessica R; Meeter, Martijn; Schjeide, Brit-Maren M; Schröder, Julia; Bertram, Lars; Gluck, Mark A; Li, Shu-Chen
2018-01-01
Probabilistic category learning involves complex interactions between the hippocampus and striatum that may depend on whether acquisition occurs via feedback or observation. Little is known about how healthy aging affects these processes. We tested whether age-related behavioral differences in probabilistic category learning from feedback or observation depend on a genetic factor known to influence individual differences in hippocampal function, the KIBRA gene (single nucleotide polymorphism rs17070145). Results showed comparable age-related performance impairments in observational as well as feedback-based learning. Moreover, genetic analyses indicated an age-related interactive effect of KIBRA on learning: among older adults, the beneficial T-allele was positively associated with learning from feedback, but negatively with learning from observation. In younger adults, no effects of KIBRA were found. Our results add behavioral genetic evidence to emerging data showing age-related differences in how neural resources relate to memory functions, namely that hippocampal and striatal contributions to probabilistic category learning may vary with age. Our findings highlight the effects genetic factors can have on differential age-related decline of different memory functions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis - lessons learned: A regulator's perspective
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reiter, L.
1990-01-01
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is a powerful, rational and attractive tool for decision-making. It is capable of absorbing and integrating a wide range of information and judgement and their associated uncertainties into a flexible framework that permits the application of societal goals and priorities. Unfortunately, its highly integrative nature can obscure those elements which drive the results, its highly quantitative nature can lead to false impressions of accuracy, and its open embrace of uncertainty can make decision-making difficult. Addressing these problems can only help to increase its use and make it more palatable to those who need to assess seismic hazard and utilize the results. (orig.)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mølgaard, Lasse Lohilahti; Buus, Ole Thomsen; Larsen, Jan
2017-01-01
We present a data-driven machine learning approach to detect drug- and explosives-precursors using colorimetric sensor technology for air-sampling. The sensing technology has been developed in the context of the CRIM-TRACK project. At present a fully- integrated portable prototype for air sampling...... of the highly multi-variate data produced from the colorimetric chip a number of machine learning techniques are employed to provide reliable classification of target analytes from confounders found in the air streams. We demonstrate that a data-driven machine learning method using dimensionality reduction...... in combination with a probabilistic classifier makes it possible to produce informative features and a high detection rate of analytes. Furthermore, the probabilistic machine learning approach provides a means of automatically identifying unreliable measurements that could produce false predictions...
Strategies in probabilistic feedback learning in Parkinson patients OFF medication.
Bellebaum, C; Kobza, S; Ferrea, S; Schnitzler, A; Pollok, B; Südmeyer, M
2016-04-21
Studies on classification learning suggested that altered dopamine function in Parkinson's Disease (PD) specifically affects learning from feedback. In patients OFF medication, enhanced learning from negative feedback has been described. This learning bias was not seen in observational learning from feedback, indicating different neural mechanisms for this type of learning. The present study aimed to compare the acquisition of stimulus-response-outcome associations in PD patients OFF medication and healthy control subjects in active and observational learning. 16 PD patients OFF medication and 16 controls were examined with three parallel learning tasks each, two feedback-based (active and observational) and one non-feedback-based paired associates task. No acquisition deficit was seen in the patients for any of the tasks. More detailed analyses on the learning strategies did, however, reveal that the patients showed more lose-shift responses during active feedback learning than controls, and that lose-shift and win-stay responses more strongly determined performance accuracy in patients than controls. For observational feedback learning, the performance of both groups correlated similarly with the performance in non-feedback-based paired associates learning and with the accuracy of observed performance. Also, patients and controls showed comparable evidence of feedback processing in observational learning. In active feedback learning, PD patients use alternative learning strategies than healthy controls. Analyses on observational learning did not yield differences between patients and controls, adding to recent evidence of a differential role of the human striatum in active and observational learning from feedback. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
2018-03-01
invested in the future developments of PPSs. 3.0 METHODS , ASSUMPTIONS, AND PROCEDURES Section 3 describes the methods for each of the primary areas of...approaches for solving machine learning problems of interest to defense, science , and the economy. Within DoD, there are different needs for ...Datasets include social network data and vaccination statistics . Those data have different characteristics (e.g., percentages for CDC regional
Takács, Ádám; Shilon, Yuval; Janacsek, Karolina; Kóbor, Andrea; Tremblay, Antoine; Németh, Dezső; Ullman, Michael T
2017-10-01
Procedural memory, which is rooted in the basal ganglia, plays an important role in the implicit learning of motor and cognitive skills. Few studies have examined procedural learning in either Tourette syndrome (TS) or Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), despite basal ganglia abnormalities in both of these neurodevelopmental disorders. We aimed to assess procedural learning in children with TS (n=13), ADHD (n=22), and comorbid TS-ADHD (n=20), as well as in typically developing children (n=21). Procedural learning was measured with a well-studied implicit probabilistic sequence learning task, the alternating serial reaction time task. All four groups showed evidence of sequence learning, and moreover did not differ from each other in sequence learning. This result, from the first study to examine procedural memory across TS, ADHD and comorbid TS-ADHD, is consistent with previous findings of intact procedural learning of sequences in both TS and ADHD. In contrast, some studies have found impaired procedural learning of non-sequential probabilistic categories in TS. This suggests that sequence learning may be spared in TS and ADHD, while at least some other forms of learning in procedural memory are impaired, at least in TS. Our findings indicate that disorders associated with basal ganglia abnormalities do not necessarily show procedural learning deficits, and provide a possible path for more effective diagnostic tools, and educational and training programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Pearce, Marcus T
2018-05-11
Music perception depends on internal psychological models derived through exposure to a musical culture. It is hypothesized that this musical enculturation depends on two cognitive processes: (1) statistical learning, in which listeners acquire internal cognitive models of statistical regularities present in the music to which they are exposed; and (2) probabilistic prediction based on these learned models that enables listeners to organize and process their mental representations of music. To corroborate these hypotheses, I review research that uses a computational model of probabilistic prediction based on statistical learning (the information dynamics of music (IDyOM) model) to simulate data from empirical studies of human listeners. The results show that a broad range of psychological processes involved in music perception-expectation, emotion, memory, similarity, segmentation, and meter-can be understood in terms of a single, underlying process of probabilistic prediction using learned statistical models. Furthermore, IDyOM simulations of listeners from different musical cultures demonstrate that statistical learning can plausibly predict causal effects of differential cultural exposure to musical styles, providing a quantitative model of cultural distance. Understanding the neural basis of musical enculturation will benefit from close coordination between empirical neuroimaging and computational modeling of underlying mechanisms, as outlined here. © 2018 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of New York Academy of Sciences.
Medication Impairs Probabilistic Classification Learning in Parkinson's Disease
Jahanshahi, Marjan; Wilkinson, Leonora; Gahir, Harpreet; Dharminda, Angeline; Lagnado, David A.
2010-01-01
In Parkinson's disease (PD), it is possible that tonic increase of dopamine associated with levodopa medication overshadows phasic release of dopamine, which is essential for learning. Thus while the motor symptoms of PD are improved with levodopa medication, learning would be disrupted. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the effect of…
Systems control with generalized probabilistic fuzzy-reinforcement learning
Hinojosa, J.; Nefti, S.; Kaymak, U.
2011-01-01
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a valuable learning method when the systems require a selection of control actions whose consequences emerge over long periods for which input-output data are not available. In most combinations of fuzzy systems and RL, the environment is considered to be
Pajak, Bozena; Fine, Alex B; Kleinschmidt, Dave F; Jaeger, T Florian
2016-12-01
We present a framework of second and additional language (L2/L n ) acquisition motivated by recent work on socio-indexical knowledge in first language (L1) processing. The distribution of linguistic categories covaries with socio-indexical variables (e.g., talker identity, gender, dialects). We summarize evidence that implicit probabilistic knowledge of this covariance is critical to L1 processing, and propose that L2/L n learning uses the same type of socio-indexical information to probabilistically infer latent hierarchical structure over previously learned and new languages. This structure guides the acquisition of new languages based on their inferred place within that hierarchy, and is itself continuously revised based on new input from any language. This proposal unifies L1 processing and L2/L n acquisition as probabilistic inference under uncertainty over socio-indexical structure. It also offers a new perspective on crosslinguistic influences during L2/L n learning, accommodating gradient and continued transfer (both negative and positive) from previously learned to novel languages, and vice versa.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Faaiz Gierdien
2008-02-01
Full Text Available I report on what teachers in an Advanced Certificate in Education (ACE in-service programme learned about probabilistic reasoning in relation to teaching it. I worked 'on the inside' using my practice as a site for studying teaching and learning. The teachers were from three different towns in the Northern Cape province and had limited teaching contact time, as is the nature of ACE programmes. Findings revealed a complicated picture, where some teachers were prepared to consider influences of their intuitive probabilistic reasoning on formal probabilistic reasoning when it came to teaching. It was, however, the 'genuineness' of teacher learning which was the issue that the findings have to address. Therefore a speculative, hopeful strategy for affecting teacher learning in mathematics teacher education practice is to sustain disequilibrium between dichotomies such as formal and intuitive probabilistic reasoning, which has analogies in content and pedagogy, and subject matter and method.
Frontostriatal development and probabilistic reinforcement learning during adolescence.
DePasque, Samantha; Galván, Adriana
2017-09-01
Adolescence has traditionally been viewed as a period of vulnerability to increased risk-taking and adverse outcomes, which have been linked to neurobiological maturation of the frontostriatal reward system. However, growing research on the role of developmental changes in the adolescent frontostriatal system in facilitating learning will provide a more nuanced view of adolescence. In this review, we discuss the implications of existing research on this topic for learning during adolescence, and suggest that the very neural changes that render adolescents vulnerable to social pressure and risky decision making may also stand to play a role in scaffolding the ability to learn from rewards and from performance-related feedback. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Approaches to probabilistic model learning for mobile manipulation robots
Sturm, Jürgen
2013-01-01
Mobile manipulation robots are envisioned to provide many useful services both in domestic environments as well as in the industrial context. Examples include domestic service robots that implement large parts of the housework, and versatile industrial assistants that provide automation, transportation, inspection, and monitoring services. The challenge in these applications is that the robots have to function under changing, real-world conditions, be able to deal with considerable amounts of noise and uncertainty, and operate without the supervision of an expert. This book presents novel learning techniques that enable mobile manipulation robots, i.e., mobile platforms with one or more robotic manipulators, to autonomously adapt to new or changing situations. The approaches presented in this book cover the following topics: (1) learning the robot's kinematic structure and properties using actuation and visual feedback, (2) learning about articulated objects in the environment in which the robot is operating,...
Gabay, Yafit; Goldfarb, Liat
2017-07-01
Although Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is closely linked to executive function deficits, it has recently been attributed to procedural learning impairments that are quite distinct from the former. These observations challenge the ability of the executive function framework solely to account for the diverse range of symptoms observed in ADHD. A recent neurocomputational model emphasizes the role of striatal dopamine (DA) in explaining ADHD's broad range of deficits, but the link between this model and procedural learning impairments remains unclear. Significantly, feedback-based procedural learning is hypothesized to be disrupted in ADHD because of the involvement of striatal DA in this type of learning. In order to test this assumption, we employed two variants of a probabilistic category learning task known from the neuropsychological literature. Feedback-based (FB) and paired associate-based (PA) probabilistic category learning were employed in a non-medicated sample of ADHD participants and neurotypical participants. In the FB task, participants learned associations between cues and outcomes initially by guessing and subsequently through feedback indicating the correctness of the response. In the PA learning task, participants viewed the cue and its associated outcome simultaneously without receiving an overt response or corrective feedback. In both tasks, participants were trained across 150 trials. Learning was assessed in a subsequent test without a presentation of the outcome or corrective feedback. Results revealed an interesting disassociation in which ADHD participants performed as well as control participants in the PA task, but were impaired compared with the controls in the FB task. The learning curve during FB training differed between the two groups. Taken together, these results suggest that the ability to incrementally learn by feedback is selectively disrupted in ADHD participants. These results are discussed in relation to both
Probabilistic and machine learning-based retrieval approaches for biomedical dataset retrieval
Karisani, Payam; Qin, Zhaohui S; Agichtein, Eugene
2018-01-01
Abstract The bioCADDIE dataset retrieval challenge brought together different approaches to retrieval of biomedical datasets relevant to a user’s query, expressed as a text description of a needed dataset. We describe experiments in applying a data-driven, machine learning-based approach to biomedical dataset retrieval as part of this challenge. We report on a series of experiments carried out to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic and machine learning-driven techniques from information retrieval, as applied to this challenge. Our experiments with probabilistic information retrieval methods, such as query term weight optimization, automatic query expansion and simulated user relevance feedback, demonstrate that automatically boosting the weights of important keywords in a verbose query is more effective than other methods. We also show that although there is a rich space of potential representations and features available in this domain, machine learning-based re-ranking models are not able to improve on probabilistic information retrieval techniques with the currently available training data. The models and algorithms presented in this paper can serve as a viable implementation of a search engine to provide access to biomedical datasets. The retrieval performance is expected to be further improved by using additional training data that is created by expert annotation, or gathered through usage logs, clicks and other processes during natural operation of the system. Database URL: https://github.com/emory-irlab/biocaddie
Scalable learning of probabilistic latent models for collaborative filtering
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre
2015-01-01
variational Bayes learning and inference algorithm for these types of models. Empirical results show that the proposed algorithm achieves significantly better accuracy results than other straw-men models evaluated on a collection of well-known data sets. We also demonstrate that the algorithm has a highly...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kou, Peng; Liang, Deliang; Gao, Lin; Lou, Jianyong
2015-01-01
Highlights: • A novel active learning model for the probabilistic electricity price forecasting. • Heteroscedastic Gaussian process that captures the local volatility of the electricity price. • Variational Bayesian learning that avoids over-fitting. • Active learning algorithm that reduces the computational efforts. - Abstract: Electricity price forecasting is essential for the market participants in their decision making. Nevertheless, the accuracy of such forecasting cannot be guaranteed due to the high variability of the price data. For this reason, in many cases, rather than merely point forecasting results, market participants are more interested in the probabilistic price forecasting results, i.e., the prediction intervals of the electricity price. Focusing on this issue, this paper proposes a new model for the probabilistic electricity price forecasting. This model is based on the active learning technique and the variational heteroscedastic Gaussian process (VHGP). It provides the heteroscedastic Gaussian prediction intervals, which effectively quantify the heteroscedastic uncertainties associated with the price data. Because the high computational effort of VHGP hinders its application to the large-scale electricity price forecasting tasks, we design an active learning algorithm to select a most informative training subset from the whole available training set. By constructing the forecasting model on this smaller subset, the computational efforts can be significantly reduced. In this way, the practical applicability of the proposed model is enhanced. The forecasting performance and the computational time of the proposed model are evaluated using the real-world electricity price data, which is obtained from the ANEM, PJM, and New England ISO
Improved probabilistic inference as a general learning mechanism with action video games.
Green, C Shawn; Pouget, Alexandre; Bavelier, Daphne
2010-09-14
Action video game play benefits performance in an array of sensory, perceptual, and attentional tasks that go well beyond the specifics of game play [1-9]. That a training regimen may induce improvements in so many different skills is notable because the majority of studies on training-induced learning report improvements on the trained task but limited transfer to other, even closely related, tasks ([10], but see also [11-13]). Here we ask whether improved probabilistic inference may explain such broad transfer. By using a visual perceptual decision making task [14, 15], the present study shows for the first time that action video game experience does indeed improve probabilistic inference. A neural model of this task [16] establishes how changing a single parameter, namely the strength of the connections between the neural layer providing the momentary evidence and the layer integrating the evidence over time, captures improvements in action-gamers behavior. These results were established in a visual, but also in a novel auditory, task, indicating generalization across modalities. Thus, improved probabilistic inference provides a general mechanism for why action video game playing enhances performance in a wide variety of tasks. In addition, this mechanism may serve as a signature of training regimens that are likely to produce transfer of learning. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A Comprehensive Probabilistic Framework to Learn Air Data from Surface Pressure Measurements
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ankur Srivastava
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Use of probabilistic techniques has been demonstrated to learn air data parameters from surface pressure measurements. Integration of numerical models with wind tunnel data and sequential experiment design of wind tunnel runs has been demonstrated in the calibration of a flush air data sensing anemometer system. Development and implementation of a metamodeling method, Sequential Function Approximation (SFA, are presented which lies at the core of the discussed probabilistic framework. SFA is presented as a tool capable of nonlinear statistical inference, uncertainty reduction by fusion of data with physical models of variable fidelity, and sequential experiment design. This work presents the development and application of these tools in the calibration of FADS for a Runway Assisted Landing Site (RALS control tower. However, the multidisciplinary nature of this work is general in nature and is potentially applicable to a variety of mechanical and aerospace engineering problems.
Gabay, Yafit; Vakil, Eli; Schiff, Rachel; Holt, Lori L.
2015-01-01
Objective Developmental dyslexia is presumed to arise from specific phonological impairments. However, an emerging theoretical framework suggests that phonological impairments may be symptoms stemming from an underlying dysfunction of procedural learning. Method We tested procedural learning in adults with dyslexia (n=15) and matched-controls (n=15) using two versions of the Weather Prediction Task: Feedback (FB) and Paired-associate (PA). In the FB-based task, participants learned associations between cues and outcomes initially by guessing and subsequently through feedback indicating the correctness of response. In the PA-based learning task, participants viewed the cue and its associated outcome simultaneously without overt response or feedback. In both versions, participants trained across 150 trials. Learning was assessed in a subsequent test without presentation of the outcome, or corrective feedback. Results The Dyslexia group exhibited impaired learning compared with the Control group on both the FB and PA versions of the weather prediction task. Conclusions The results indicate that the ability to learn by feedback is not selectively impaired in dyslexia. Rather it seems that the probabilistic nature of the task, shared by the FB and PA versions of the weather prediction task, hampers learning in those with dyslexia. Results are discussed in light of procedural learning impairments among participants with dyslexia. PMID:25730732
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Grabaskas, David; Bucknor, Matthew; Brunett, Acacia; Grelle, Austin
2015-06-28
Many advanced small modular reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended due to deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize with a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper describes the most promising options: mechanistic techniques, which share qualities with conventional probabilistic methods, and simulation-based techniques, which explicitly account for time-dependent processes. The primary intention of this paper is to describe the strengths and weaknesses of each methodology and highlight the lessons learned while applying the two techniques while providing high-level results. This includes the global benefits and deficiencies of the methods and practical problems encountered during the implementation of each technique.
Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.
Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas
2017-05-09
Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.
Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning
Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas
2017-01-01
Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This “confidence weighting” implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain’s learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences. PMID:28439014
Mølgaard, Lasse L.; Buus, Ole T.; Larsen, Jan; Babamoradi, Hamid; Thygesen, Ida L.; Laustsen, Milan; Munk, Jens Kristian; Dossi, Eleftheria; O'Keeffe, Caroline; Lässig, Lina; Tatlow, Sol; Sandström, Lars; Jakobsen, Mogens H.
2017-05-01
We present a data-driven machine learning approach to detect drug- and explosives-precursors using colorimetric sensor technology for air-sampling. The sensing technology has been developed in the context of the CRIM-TRACK project. At present a fully- integrated portable prototype for air sampling with disposable sensing chips and automated data acquisition has been developed. The prototype allows for fast, user-friendly sampling, which has made it possible to produce large datasets of colorimetric data for different target analytes in laboratory and simulated real-world application scenarios. To make use of the highly multi-variate data produced from the colorimetric chip a number of machine learning techniques are employed to provide reliable classification of target analytes from confounders found in the air streams. We demonstrate that a data-driven machine learning method using dimensionality reduction in combination with a probabilistic classifier makes it possible to produce informative features and a high detection rate of analytes. Furthermore, the probabilistic machine learning approach provides a means of automatically identifying unreliable measurements that could produce false predictions. The robustness of the colorimetric sensor has been evaluated in a series of experiments focusing on the amphetamine pre-cursor phenylacetone as well as the improvised explosives pre-cursor hydrogen peroxide. The analysis demonstrates that the system is able to detect analytes in clean air and mixed with substances that occur naturally in real-world sampling scenarios. The technology under development in CRIM-TRACK has the potential as an effective tool to control trafficking of illegal drugs, explosive detection, or in other law enforcement applications.
Quantum-Assisted Learning of Hardware-Embedded Probabilistic Graphical Models
Benedetti, Marcello; Realpe-Gómez, John; Biswas, Rupak; Perdomo-Ortiz, Alejandro
2017-10-01
Mainstream machine-learning techniques such as deep learning and probabilistic programming rely heavily on sampling from generally intractable probability distributions. There is increasing interest in the potential advantages of using quantum computing technologies as sampling engines to speed up these tasks or to make them more effective. However, some pressing challenges in state-of-the-art quantum annealers have to be overcome before we can assess their actual performance. The sparse connectivity, resulting from the local interaction between quantum bits in physical hardware implementations, is considered the most severe limitation to the quality of constructing powerful generative unsupervised machine-learning models. Here, we use embedding techniques to add redundancy to data sets, allowing us to increase the modeling capacity of quantum annealers. We illustrate our findings by training hardware-embedded graphical models on a binarized data set of handwritten digits and two synthetic data sets in experiments with up to 940 quantum bits. Our model can be trained in quantum hardware without full knowledge of the effective parameters specifying the corresponding quantum Gibbs-like distribution; therefore, this approach avoids the need to infer the effective temperature at each iteration, speeding up learning; it also mitigates the effect of noise in the control parameters, making it robust to deviations from the reference Gibbs distribution. Our approach demonstrates the feasibility of using quantum annealers for implementing generative models, and it provides a suitable framework for benchmarking these quantum technologies on machine-learning-related tasks.
Quantum-Assisted Learning of Hardware-Embedded Probabilistic Graphical Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marcello Benedetti
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Mainstream machine-learning techniques such as deep learning and probabilistic programming rely heavily on sampling from generally intractable probability distributions. There is increasing interest in the potential advantages of using quantum computing technologies as sampling engines to speed up these tasks or to make them more effective. However, some pressing challenges in state-of-the-art quantum annealers have to be overcome before we can assess their actual performance. The sparse connectivity, resulting from the local interaction between quantum bits in physical hardware implementations, is considered the most severe limitation to the quality of constructing powerful generative unsupervised machine-learning models. Here, we use embedding techniques to add redundancy to data sets, allowing us to increase the modeling capacity of quantum annealers. We illustrate our findings by training hardware-embedded graphical models on a binarized data set of handwritten digits and two synthetic data sets in experiments with up to 940 quantum bits. Our model can be trained in quantum hardware without full knowledge of the effective parameters specifying the corresponding quantum Gibbs-like distribution; therefore, this approach avoids the need to infer the effective temperature at each iteration, speeding up learning; it also mitigates the effect of noise in the control parameters, making it robust to deviations from the reference Gibbs distribution. Our approach demonstrates the feasibility of using quantum annealers for implementing generative models, and it provides a suitable framework for benchmarking these quantum technologies on machine-learning-related tasks.
Constraints based analysis of extended cybernetic models.
Mandli, Aravinda R; Venkatesh, Kareenhalli V; Modak, Jayant M
2015-11-01
The cybernetic modeling framework provides an interesting approach to model the regulatory phenomena occurring in microorganisms. In the present work, we adopt a constraints based approach to analyze the nonlinear behavior of the extended equations of the cybernetic model. We first show that the cybernetic model exhibits linear growth behavior under the constraint of no resource allocation for the induction of the key enzyme. We then quantify the maximum achievable specific growth rate of microorganisms on mixtures of substitutable substrates under various kinds of regulation and show its use in gaining an understanding of the regulatory strategies of microorganisms. Finally, we show that Saccharomyces cerevisiae exhibits suboptimal dynamic growth with a long diauxic lag phase when growing on a mixture of glucose and galactose and discuss on its potential to achieve optimal growth with a significantly reduced diauxic lag period. The analysis carried out in the present study illustrates the utility of adopting a constraints based approach to understand the dynamic growth strategies of microorganisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Brain function during probabilistic learning in relation to IQ and level of education.
van den Bos, Wouter; Crone, Eveline A; Güroğlu, Berna
2012-02-15
Knowing how to adapt your behavior based on feedback lies at the core of successful learning. We investigated the relation between brain function, grey matter volume, educational level and IQ in a Dutch adolescent sample. In total 45 healthy volunteers between ages 13 and 16 were recruited from schools for pre-vocational and pre-university education. For each individual, IQ was estimated using two subtests from the WISC-III-R (similarities and block design). While in the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner, participants performed a probabilistic learning task. Behavioral comparisons showed that participants with higher IQ used a more adaptive learning strategy after receiving positive feedback. Analysis of neural activation revealed that higher IQ was associated with increased activation in DLPFC and dACC when receiving positive feedback, specifically for rules with low reward probability (i.e., unexpected positive feedback). Furthermore, VBM analyses revealed that IQ correlated positively with grey matter volume within these regions. These results provide support for IQ-related individual differences in the developmental time courses of neural circuitry supporting feedback-based learning. Current findings are interpreted in terms of a prolonged window of flexibility and opportunity for adolescents with higher IQ scores. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Comparison of plant-specific probabilistic safety assessments and lessons learned
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Balfanz, H.P. [TUeV Nord, Hamburg (Germany); Berg, H.P. [Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz, Salzgitter (Germany); Steininger, U. [TUeV Energie- und Systemtechnik GmbH, Unternehmensgruppe TUeV Sueddeutschland, Muenchen (Germany)
2001-11-01
Probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) have been performed for all German nuclear power plants in operation. These assessments are mainly based on the recent German PSA guide and an earlier draft, respectively. However, comparison of these PSA show differences in the results which are discussed in this paper. Lessons learned from this comparison and further development of the PSA methodology are described. (orig.) [German] Probabilistische Sicherheitsanalysen (PSA) sind fuer alle in Betrieb befindlichen deutschen Kernkraftwerke durchgefuehrt worden. Diese Analysen basierten in der Regel auf dem aktuellen deutschen PSA-Leitfaden bzw. einem frueheren Entwurf. Ein Vergleich dieser PSA zeigt Unterschiede in den Ergebnissen, die in diesem Beitrag diskutiert werden. Erfahrungen und Erkenntnisse, die aus diesem Vergleich abgeleitet werden koennen, und weitere Entwicklungen der PSA-Methoden werden beschrieben. (orig.)
Soize, C.
2017-11-01
This paper deals with the optimal design of a titanium mesoscale implant in a cortical bone for which the apparent elasticity tensor is modeled by a non-Gaussian random field at mesoscale, which has been experimentally identified. The external applied forces are also random. The design parameters are geometrical dimensions related to the geometry of the implant. The stochastic elastostatic boundary value problem is discretized by the finite element method. The objective function and the constraints are related to normal, shear, and von Mises stresses inside the cortical bone. The constrained nonconvex optimization problem in presence of uncertainties is solved by using a probabilistic learning algorithm that allows for considerably reducing the numerical cost with respect to the classical approaches.
Chikalov, Igor
2011-02-15
Background: Hydrogen bonds (H-bonds) play a key role in both the formation and stabilization of protein structures. They form and break while a protein deforms, for instance during the transition from a non-functional to a functional state. The intrinsic strength of an individual H-bond has been studied from an energetic viewpoint, but energy alone may not be a very good predictor.Methods: This paper describes inductive learning methods to train protein-independent probabilistic models of H-bond stability from molecular dynamics (MD) simulation trajectories of various proteins. The training data contains 32 input attributes (predictors) that describe an H-bond and its local environment in a conformation c and the output attribute is the probability that the H-bond will be present in an arbitrary conformation of this protein achievable from c within a time duration ?. We model dependence of the output variable on the predictors by a regression tree.Results: Several models are built using 6 MD simulation trajectories containing over 4000 distinct H-bonds (millions of occurrences). Experimental results demonstrate that such models can predict H-bond stability quite well. They perform roughly 20% better than models based on H-bond energy alone. In addition, they can accurately identify a large fraction of the least stable H-bonds in a conformation. In most tests, about 80% of the 10% H-bonds predicted as the least stable are actually among the 10% truly least stable. The important attributes identified during the tree construction are consistent with previous findings.Conclusions: We use inductive learning methods to build protein-independent probabilistic models to study H-bond stability, and demonstrate that the models perform better than H-bond energy alone. 2011 Chikalov et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Constraint-based Attribute and Interval Planning
Jonsson, Ari; Frank, Jeremy
2013-01-01
In this paper we describe Constraint-based Attribute and Interval Planning (CAIP), a paradigm for representing and reasoning about plans. The paradigm enables the description of planning domains with time, resources, concurrent activities, mutual exclusions among sets of activities, disjunctive preconditions and conditional effects. We provide a theoretical foundation for the paradigm, based on temporal intervals and attributes. We then show how the plans are naturally expressed by networks of constraints, and show that the process of planning maps directly to dynamic constraint reasoning. In addition, we de ne compatibilities, a compact mechanism for describing planning domains. We describe how this framework can incorporate the use of constraint reasoning technology to improve planning. Finally, we describe EUROPA, an implementation of the CAIP framework.
Constrained dictionary learning and probabilistic hypergraph ranking for person re-identification
He, You; Wu, Song; Pu, Nan; Qian, Li; Xiao, Guoqiang
2018-04-01
Person re-identification is a fundamental and inevitable task in public security. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to improve the performance of this task. First, two different types of descriptors are extracted to represent a pedestrian: (1) appearance-based superpixel features, which are constituted mainly by conventional color features and extracted from the supepixel rather than a whole picture and (2) due to the limitation of discrimination of appearance features, the deep features extracted by feature fusion Network are also used. Second, a view invariant subspace is learned by dictionary learning constrained by the minimum negative sample (termed as DL-cMN) to reduce the noise in appearance-based superpixel feature domain. Then, we use deep features and sparse codes transformed by appearancebased features to establish the hyperedges respectively by k-nearest neighbor, rather than jointing different features simply. Finally, a final ranking is performed by probabilistic hypergraph ranking algorithm. Extensive experiments on three challenging datasets (VIPeR, PRID450S and CUHK01) demonstrate the advantages and effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xin Xu
2009-03-01
Full Text Available The significant economic contributions of the tourism industry in recent years impose an unprecedented force for data mining and machine learning methods to analyze tourism data. The intrinsic problems of raw data in tourism are largely related to the complexity, noise and nonlinearity in the data that may introduce many challenges for the existing data mining techniques such as rough sets and neural networks. In this paper, a novel method using SVM- based classification with two nonlinear feature projection techniques is proposed for tourism data analysis. The first feature projection method is based on ISOMAP (Isometric Feature Mapping, which is a class of manifold learning approaches for dimension reduction. By making use of ISOMAP, part of the noisy data can be identified and the classification accuracy of SVMs can be improved by appropriately discarding the noisy training data. The second feature projection method is a probabilistic space mapping technique for scale transformation. Experimental results on expenditure data of business travelers show that the proposed method can improve prediction performance both in terms of testing accuracy and statistical coincidence. In addition, both of the feature projection methods are helpful to reduce the training time of SVMs.
Fuzzy Constraint-Based Agent Negotiation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Menq-Wen Lin; K. Robert Lai; Ting-Jung Yu
2005-01-01
Conflicts between two or more parties arise for various reasons and perspectives. Thus, resolution of conflicts frequently relies on some form of negotiation. This paper presents a general problem-solving framework for modeling multi-issue multilateral negotiation using fuzzy constraints. Agent negotiation is formulated as a distributed fuzzy constraint satisfaction problem (DFCSP). Fuzzy constrains are thus used to naturally represent each agent's desires involving imprecision and human conceptualization, particularly when lexical imprecision and subjective matters are concerned. On the other hand, based on fuzzy constraint-based problem-solving, our approach enables an agent not only to systematically relax fuzzy constraints to generate a proposal, but also to employ fuzzy similarity to select the alternative that is subject to its acceptability by the opponents. This task of problem-solving is to reach an agreement that benefits all agents with a high satisfaction degree of fuzzy constraints, and move towards the deal more quickly since their search focuses only on the feasible solution space. An application to multilateral negotiation of a travel planning is provided to demonstrate the usefulness and effectiveness of our framework.
Lancaster, Thomas M; Ihssen, Niklas; Brindley, Lisa M; Tansey, Katherine E; Mantripragada, Kiran; O'Donovan, Michael C; Owen, Michael J; Linden, David E J
2016-02-01
A substantial proportion of schizophrenia liability can be explained by additive genetic factors. Risk profile scores (RPS) directly index risk using a summated total of common risk variants weighted by their effect. Previous studies suggest that schizophrenia RPS predict alterations to neural networks that support working memory and verbal fluency. In this study, we apply schizophrenia RPS to fMRI data to elucidate the effects of polygenic risk on functional brain networks during a probabilistic-learning neuroimaging paradigm. The neural networks recruited during this paradigm have previously been shown to be altered to unmedicated schizophrenia patients and relatives of schizophrenia patients, which may reflect genetic susceptibility. We created schizophrenia RPS using summary data from the Psychiatric Genetic Consortium (Schizophrenia Working Group) for 83 healthy individuals and explore associations between schizophrenia RPS and blood oxygen level dependency (BOLD) during periods of choice behavior (switch-stay) and reflection upon choice outcome (reward-punishment). We show that schizophrenia RPS is associated with alterations in the frontal pole (PWHOLE-BRAIN-CORRECTED = 0.048) and the ventral striatum (PROI-CORRECTED = 0.036), during choice behavior, but not choice outcome. We suggest that the common risk variants that increase susceptibility to schizophrenia can be associated with alterations in the neural circuitry that support the processing of changing reward contingencies. Hum Brain Mapp 37:491-500, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Semi-supervised learning based probabilistic latent semantic analysis for automatic image annotation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Tian Dongping
2017-01-01
In recent years, multimedia annotation problem has been attracting significant research attention in multimedia and computer vision areas, especially for automatic image annotation, whose purpose is to provide an efficient and effective searching environment for users to query their images more easily.In this paper, a semi-supervised learning based probabilistic latent semantic analysis ( PL-SA) model for automatic image annotation is presenred.Since it' s often hard to obtain or create la-beled images in large quantities while unlabeled ones are easier to collect, a transductive support vector machine ( TSVM) is exploited to enhance the quality of the training image data.Then, differ-ent image features with different magnitudes will result in different performance for automatic image annotation.To this end, a Gaussian normalization method is utilized to normalize different features extracted from effective image regions segmented by the normalized cuts algorithm so as to reserve the intrinsic content of images as complete as possible.Finally, a PLSA model with asymmetric mo-dalities is constructed based on the expectation maximization( EM) algorithm to predict a candidate set of annotations with confidence scores.Extensive experiments on the general-purpose Corel5k dataset demonstrate that the proposed model can significantly improve performance of traditional PL-SA for the task of automatic image annotation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yoon, Eun Jin; Cho, Sang Soo; Kim, Hee Jung; Bang, Seong Ae; Park, Hyun Soo; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Eun
2007-01-01
Although it is well known that explicit memory is affected by the deleterious changes in brain with aging, but effect of aging in implicit memory such as probabilistic category learning (PCL) is not clear. To identify the effect of aging on the neural interaction for successful PCL, we investigated the neural substrates of PCL and the age-related changes of the neural network between these brain regions. 23 young (age, 252 y; 11 males) and 14 elderly (673 y; 7 males) healthy subjects underwent FDG PET during a resting state and 150-trial weather prediction (WP) task. Correlations between the WP hit rates and regional glucose metabolism were assessed using SPM2 (P diff (37) = 142.47, P<0.005), Systematic comparisons of each path revealed that frontal crosscallosal and the frontal to parahippocampal connection were most responsible for the model differences (P<0.05). For the successful PCL, the elderly recruits the basal ganglia implicit memory system but MTL recruitment differs from the young. The inadequate MTL correlation pattern in the elderly is may be caused by the changes of the neural pathway related with explicit memory. These neural changes can explain the decreased performance of PCL in elderly subjects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vega, J.; Moreno, R.; Pereira, A.; Acero, A.; Murari, A.; Dormido-Canto, S.
2014-01-01
The development of accurate real-time disruption predictors is a pre-requisite to any mitigation action. Present theoretical models of disruptions do not reliably cope with the disruption issues. This article deals with data-driven predictors and a review of existing machine learning techniques, from both physics and engineering points of view, is provided. All these methods need large training datasets to develop successful predictors. However, ITER or DEMO cannot wait for hundreds of disruptions to have a reliable predictor. So far, the attempts to extrapolate predictors between different tokamaks have not shown satisfactory results. In addition, it is not clear how valid this approach can be between present devices and ITER/DEMO, due to the differences in their respective scales and possibly underlying physics. Therefore, this article analyses the requirements to create adaptive predictors from scratch to learn from the data of an individual machine from the beginning of operation. A particular algorithm based on probabilistic classifiers has been developed and it has been applied to the database of the three first ITER-like wall campaigns of JET (1036 non-disruptive and 201 disruptive discharges). The predictions start from the first disruption and only 12 re-trainings have been necessary as a consequence of missing 12 disruptions only. Almost 10 000 different predictors have been developed (they differ in their features) and after the chronological analysis of the 1237 discharges, the predictors recognize 94% of all disruptions with an average warning time (AWT) of 654 ms. This percentage corresponds to the sum of tardy detections (11%), valid alarms (76%) and premature alarms (7%). The false alarm rate is 4%. If only valid alarms are considered, the AWT is 244 ms and the standard deviation is 205 ms. The average probability interval about the reliability and accuracy of all the individual predictions is 0.811 ± 0.189. (paper)
Vega, J.; Murari, A.; Dormido-Canto, S.; Moreno, R.; Pereira, A.; Acero, A.; Contributors, JET-EFDA
2014-12-01
The development of accurate real-time disruption predictors is a pre-requisite to any mitigation action. Present theoretical models of disruptions do not reliably cope with the disruption issues. This article deals with data-driven predictors and a review of existing machine learning techniques, from both physics and engineering points of view, is provided. All these methods need large training datasets to develop successful predictors. However, ITER or DEMO cannot wait for hundreds of disruptions to have a reliable predictor. So far, the attempts to extrapolate predictors between different tokamaks have not shown satisfactory results. In addition, it is not clear how valid this approach can be between present devices and ITER/DEMO, due to the differences in their respective scales and possibly underlying physics. Therefore, this article analyses the requirements to create adaptive predictors from scratch to learn from the data of an individual machine from the beginning of operation. A particular algorithm based on probabilistic classifiers has been developed and it has been applied to the database of the three first ITER-like wall campaigns of JET (1036 non-disruptive and 201 disruptive discharges). The predictions start from the first disruption and only 12 re-trainings have been necessary as a consequence of missing 12 disruptions only. Almost 10 000 different predictors have been developed (they differ in their features) and after the chronological analysis of the 1237 discharges, the predictors recognize 94% of all disruptions with an average warning time (AWT) of 654 ms. This percentage corresponds to the sum of tardy detections (11%), valid alarms (76%) and premature alarms (7%). The false alarm rate is 4%. If only valid alarms are considered, the AWT is 244 ms and the standard deviation is 205 ms. The average probability interval about the reliability and accuracy of all the individual predictions is 0.811 ± 0.189.
Chikalov, Igor
2011-04-02
Hydrogen bonds (H-bonds) play a key role in both the formation and stabilization of protein structures. H-bonds involving atoms from residues that are close to each other in the main-chain sequence stabilize secondary structure elements. H-bonds between atoms from distant residues stabilize a protein’s tertiary structure. However, H-bonds greatly vary in stability. They form and break while a protein deforms. For instance, the transition of a protein from a nonfunctional to a functional state may require some H-bonds to break and others to form. The intrinsic strength of an individual H-bond has been studied from an energetic viewpoint, but energy alone may not be a very good predictor. Other local interactions may reinforce (or weaken) an H-bond. This paper describes inductive learning methods to train a protein-independent probabilistic model of H-bond stability from molecular dynamics (MD) simulation trajectories. The training data describes H-bond occurrences at successive times along these trajectories by the values of attributes called predictors. A trained model is constructed in the form of a regression tree in which each non-leaf node is a Boolean test (split) on a predictor. Each occurrence of an H-bond maps to a path in this tree from the root to a leaf node. Its predicted stability is associated with the leaf node. Experimental results demonstrate that such models can predict H-bond stability quite well. In particular, their performance is roughly 20% better than that of models based on H-bond energy alone. In addition, they can accurately identify a large fraction of the least stable H-bonds in a given conformation. The paper discusses several extensions that may yield further improvements.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yoon, Eun Jin; Cho, Sang Soo; Kim, Hee Jung; Bang, Seong Ae; Park, Hyun Soo; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Eun [Seoul National Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2007-07-01
Although it is well known that explicit memory is affected by the deleterious changes in brain with aging, but effect of aging in implicit memory such as probabilistic category learning (PCL) is not clear. To identify the effect of aging on the neural interaction for successful PCL, we investigated the neural substrates of PCL and the age-related changes of the neural network between these brain regions. 23 young (age, 252 y; 11 males) and 14 elderly (673 y; 7 males) healthy subjects underwent FDG PET during a resting state and 150-trial weather prediction (WP) task. Correlations between the WP hit rates and regional glucose metabolism were assessed using SPM2 (P<0.05 uncorrected). For path analysis, seven brain regions (bilateral middle frontal gyri and putamen, left fusiform gyrus, anterior cingulate and right parahippocampal gyri) were selected based on the results of the correlation analysis. Model construction and path analysis processing were done by AMOS 5.0. The elderly had significantly lower total hit rates than the young (P<0.005). In the correlation analysis, both groups showed similar metabolic correlation in frontal and striatal area. But correlation in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) was found differently by group. In path analysis, the functional networks for the constructed model was accepted (X(2) =0.80, P=0.67) and it proved to be significantly different between groups (X{sub diff}(37) = 142.47, P<0.005), Systematic comparisons of each path revealed that frontal crosscallosal and the frontal to parahippocampal connection were most responsible for the model differences (P<0.05). For the successful PCL, the elderly recruits the basal ganglia implicit memory system but MTL recruitment differs from the young. The inadequate MTL correlation pattern in the elderly is may be caused by the changes of the neural pathway related with explicit memory. These neural changes can explain the decreased performance of PCL in elderly subjects.
Probabilistic logics and probabilistic networks
Haenni, Rolf; Wheeler, Gregory; Williamson, Jon; Andrews, Jill
2014-01-01
Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks presents a groundbreaking framework within which various approaches to probabilistic logic naturally fit. Additionally, the text shows how to develop computationally feasible methods to mesh with this framework.
Evaluating Direct Manipulation Operations for Constraint-Based Layout
Zeidler , Clemens; Lutteroth , Christof; Stuerzlinger , Wolfgang; Weber , Gerald
2013-01-01
Part 11: Interface Layout and Data Entry; International audience; Layout managers are used to control the placement of widgets in graphical user interfaces (GUIs). Constraint-based layout managers are more powerful than other ones. However, they are also more complex and their layouts are prone to problems that usually require direct editing of constraints. Today, designers commonly use GUI builders to specify GUIs. The complexities of traditional approaches to constraint-based layouts pose c...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Verdoolaege, Geert; Van Oost, Guido
2012-01-01
Highlights: ► We present an integrated framework for pattern recognition in fusion data. ► We model measurement uncertainty through an appropriate probability distribution. ► We use the geodesic distance on probabilistic manifolds as a similarity measure. ► We apply the framework to confinement mode classification. ► The classification accuracy benefits from uncertainty information and its geometry. - Abstract: We present an integrated framework for (real-time) pattern recognition in fusion data. The main premise is the inherent probabilistic nature of measurements of plasma quantities. We propose the geodesic distance on probabilistic manifolds as a similarity measure between data points. Substructure induced by data dependencies may further reduce the dimensionality and redundancy of the data set. We present an application to confinement mode classification, showing the distinct advantage obtained by considering the measurement uncertainty and its geometry.
Marciano, Michael A; Adelman, Jonathan D
2017-03-01
The deconvolution of DNA mixtures remains one of the most critical challenges in the field of forensic DNA analysis. In addition, of all the data features required to perform such deconvolution, the number of contributors in the sample is widely considered the most important, and, if incorrectly chosen, the most likely to negatively influence the mixture interpretation of a DNA profile. Unfortunately, most current approaches to mixture deconvolution require the assumption that the number of contributors is known by the analyst, an assumption that can prove to be especially faulty when faced with increasingly complex mixtures of 3 or more contributors. In this study, we propose a probabilistic approach for estimating the number of contributors in a DNA mixture that leverages the strengths of machine learning. To assess this approach, we compare classification performances of six machine learning algorithms and evaluate the model from the top-performing algorithm against the current state of the art in the field of contributor number classification. Overall results show over 98% accuracy in identifying the number of contributors in a DNA mixture of up to 4 contributors. Comparative results showed 3-person mixtures had a classification accuracy improvement of over 6% compared to the current best-in-field methodology, and that 4-person mixtures had a classification accuracy improvement of over 20%. The Probabilistic Assessment for Contributor Estimation (PACE) also accomplishes classification of mixtures of up to 4 contributors in less than 1s using a standard laptop or desktop computer. Considering the high classification accuracy rates, as well as the significant time commitment required by the current state of the art model versus seconds required by a machine learning-derived model, the approach described herein provides a promising means of estimating the number of contributors and, subsequently, will lead to improved DNA mixture interpretation. Copyright © 2016
Probabilistic Programming (Invited Talk)
Yang, Hongseok
2017-01-01
Probabilistic programming refers to the idea of using standard programming constructs for specifying probabilistic models from machine learning and statistics, and employing generic inference algorithms for answering various queries on these models, such as posterior inference and estimation of model evidence. Although this idea itself is not new and was, in fact, explored by several programming-language and statistics researchers in the early 2000, it is only in the last few years that proba...
Constraint-based job shop scheduling with ILOG SCHEDULER
Nuijten, W.P.M.; Le Pape, C.
1998-01-01
We introduce constraint-based scheduling and discuss its main principles. An approximation algorithm based on tree search is developed for the job shop scheduling problem using ILOG SCHEDULER. A new way of calculating lower bounds on the makespan of the job shop scheduling problem is presented and
Teaching Database Design with Constraint-Based Tutors
Mitrovic, Antonija; Suraweera, Pramuditha
2016-01-01
Design tasks are difficult to teach, due to large, unstructured solution spaces, underspecified problems, non-existent problem solving algorithms and stopping criteria. In this paper, we comment on our approach to develop KERMIT, a constraint-based tutor that taught database design. In later work, we re-implemented KERMIT as EER-Tutor, and…
Large-Scale Constraint-Based Pattern Mining
Zhu, Feida
2009-01-01
We studied the problem of constraint-based pattern mining for three different data formats, item-set, sequence and graph, and focused on mining patterns of large sizes. Colossal patterns in each data formats are studied to discover pruning properties that are useful for direct mining of these patterns. For item-set data, we observed robustness of…
Zendehrouh, Sareh
2015-11-01
Recent work on decision-making field offers an account of dual-system theory for decision-making process. This theory holds that this process is conducted by two main controllers: a goal-directed system and a habitual system. In the reinforcement learning (RL) domain, the habitual behaviors are connected with model-free methods, in which appropriate actions are learned through trial-and-error experiences. However, goal-directed behaviors are associated with model-based methods of RL, in which actions are selected using a model of the environment. Studies on cognitive control also suggest that during processes like decision-making, some cortical and subcortical structures work in concert to monitor the consequences of decisions and to adjust control according to current task demands. Here a computational model is presented based on dual system theory and cognitive control perspective of decision-making. The proposed model is used to simulate human performance on a variant of probabilistic learning task. The basic proposal is that the brain implements a dual controller, while an accompanying monitoring system detects some kinds of conflict including a hypothetical cost-conflict one. The simulation results address existing theories about two event-related potentials, namely error related negativity (ERN) and feedback related negativity (FRN), and explore the best account of them. Based on the results, some testable predictions are also presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Constraint-based scheduling applying constraint programming to scheduling problems
Baptiste, Philippe; Nuijten, Wim
2001-01-01
Constraint Programming is a problem-solving paradigm that establishes a clear distinction between two pivotal aspects of a problem: (1) a precise definition of the constraints that define the problem to be solved and (2) the algorithms and heuristics enabling the selection of decisions to solve the problem. It is because of these capabilities that Constraint Programming is increasingly being employed as a problem-solving tool to solve scheduling problems. Hence the development of Constraint-Based Scheduling as a field of study. The aim of this book is to provide an overview of the most widely used Constraint-Based Scheduling techniques. Following the principles of Constraint Programming, the book consists of three distinct parts: The first chapter introduces the basic principles of Constraint Programming and provides a model of the constraints that are the most often encountered in scheduling problems. Chapters 2, 3, 4, and 5 are focused on the propagation of resource constraints, which usually are responsibl...
Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A.
1997-01-01
textabstractProbabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these preferences are intuitively appealing they are difficult to reconcile with expected utility theory. Under highly plausible assumptions about the utility function, willingness to pay for probabilistic i...
COMPOSER: A Probabilistic Solution to the Utility Problem in Speed-up Learning.
Gratch, Jonathan; DeJong, Gerald
In machine learning there is considerable interest in techniques which improve planning ability. Initial investigations have identified a wide variety of techniques to address this issue. Progress has been hampered by the utility problem, a basic tradeoff between the benefit of learned knowledge and the cost to locate and apply relevant knowledge.…
The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: lessons learned regarding passive safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.
1998-01-01
This paper summarizes the results from the EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10 -5 yr -1 . Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability
The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: lessons learned regarding passive safety
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hill, D J; Ragland, W A; Roglans, J
1998-11-01
This paper summarizes the results from the EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10{sup -6} yr{sup -1}, even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10{sup -6} yr{sup -1} and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10{sup -5} yr{sup -1}. Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability.
The EBR-II probabilistic risk assessment lessons learned regarding passive safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.
1994-01-01
This paper summarizes the results from the recently completed EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10 -5 yr -1 . Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project seeks to deliver an ultra-efficient, high-fidelity structural health management (SHM) framework using machine learning and graphics processing...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Finn Verner; Lauritzen, Steffen Lilholt
2001-01-01
This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs.......This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs....
Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A.
1997-01-01
Probabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. These observations cannot be
P.P. Wakker (Peter); R.H. Thaler (Richard); A. Tversky (Amos)
1997-01-01
textabstractProbabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these
Kolodny, Oren; Lotem, Arnon; Edelman, Shimon
2015-03-01
We introduce a set of biologically and computationally motivated design choices for modeling the learning of language, or of other types of sequential, hierarchically structured experience and behavior, and describe an implemented system that conforms to these choices and is capable of unsupervised learning from raw natural-language corpora. Given a stream of linguistic input, our model incrementally learns a grammar that captures its statistical patterns, which can then be used to parse or generate new data. The grammar constructed in this manner takes the form of a directed weighted graph, whose nodes are recursively (hierarchically) defined patterns over the elements of the input stream. We evaluated the model in seventeen experiments, grouped into five studies, which examined, respectively, (a) the generative ability of grammar learned from a corpus of natural language, (b) the characteristics of the learned representation, (c) sequence segmentation and chunking, (d) artificial grammar learning, and (e) certain types of structure dependence. The model's performance largely vindicates our design choices, suggesting that progress in modeling language acquisition can be made on a broad front-ranging from issues of generativity to the replication of human experimental findings-by bringing biological and computational considerations, as well as lessons from prior efforts, to bear on the modeling approach. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Button, Katherine S; Kounali, Daphne; Stapinski, Lexine; Rapee, Ronald M; Lewis, Glyn; Munafò, Marcus R
2015-01-01
Fear of negative evaluation (FNE) defines social anxiety yet the process of inferring social evaluation, and its potential role in maintaining social anxiety, is poorly understood. We developed an instrumental learning task to model social evaluation learning, predicting that FNE would specifically bias learning about the self but not others. During six test blocks (3 self-referential, 3 other-referential), participants (n = 100) met six personas and selected a word from a positive/negative pair to finish their social evaluation sentences "I think [you are / George is]…". Feedback contingencies corresponded to 3 rules, liked, neutral and disliked, with P[positive word correct] = 0.8, 0.5 and 0.2, respectively. As FNE increased participants selected fewer positive words (β = -0.4, 95% CI -0.7, -0.2, p = 0.001), which was strongest in the self-referential condition (FNE × condition 0.28, 95% CI 0.01, 0.54, p = 0.04), and the neutral and dislike rules (FNE × condition × rule, p = 0.07). At low FNE the proportion of positive words selected for self-neutral and self-disliked greatly exceeded the feedback contingency, indicating poor learning, which improved as FNE increased. FNE is associated with differences in processing social-evaluative information specifically about the self. At low FNE this manifests as insensitivity to learning negative self-referential evaluation. High FNE individuals are equally sensitive to learning positive or negative evaluation, which although objectively more accurate, may have detrimental effects on mental health.
Button, Katherine S.; Kounali, Daphne; Stapinski, Lexine; Rapee, Ronald M.; Lewis, Glyn; Munafò, Marcus R.
2015-01-01
Background Fear of negative evaluation (FNE) defines social anxiety yet the process of inferring social evaluation, and its potential role in maintaining social anxiety, is poorly understood. We developed an instrumental learning task to model social evaluation learning, predicting that FNE would specifically bias learning about the self but not others. Methods During six test blocks (3 self-referential, 3 other-referential), participants (n = 100) met six personas and selected a word from a positive/negative pair to finish their social evaluation sentences “I think [you are / George is]…”. Feedback contingencies corresponded to 3 rules, liked, neutral and disliked, with P[positive word correct] = 0.8, 0.5 and 0.2, respectively. Results As FNE increased participants selected fewer positive words (β = −0.4, 95% CI −0.7, −0.2, p = 0.001), which was strongest in the self-referential condition (FNE × condition 0.28, 95% CI 0.01, 0.54, p = 0.04), and the neutral and dislike rules (FNE × condition × rule, p = 0.07). At low FNE the proportion of positive words selected for self-neutral and self-disliked greatly exceeded the feedback contingency, indicating poor learning, which improved as FNE increased. Conclusions FNE is associated with differences in processing social-evaluative information specifically about the self. At low FNE this manifests as insensitivity to learning negative self-referential evaluation. High FNE individuals are equally sensitive to learning positive or negative evaluation, which although objectively more accurate, may have detrimental effects on mental health. PMID:25853835
From exemplar to grammar: a probabilistic analogy-based model of language learning.
Bod, Rens
2009-07-01
While rules and exemplars are usually viewed as opposites, this paper argues that they form end points of the same distribution. By representing both rules and exemplars as (partial) trees, we can take into account the fluid middle ground between the two extremes. This insight is the starting point for a new theory of language learning that is based on the following idea: If a language learner does not know which phrase-structure trees should be assigned to initial sentences, s/he allows (implicitly) for all possible trees and lets linguistic experience decide which is the "best" tree for each sentence. The best tree is obtained by maximizing "structural analogy" between a sentence and previous sentences, which is formalized by the most probable shortest combination of subtrees from all trees of previous sentences. Corpus-based experiments with this model on the Penn Treebank and the Childes database indicate that it can learn both exemplar-based and rule-based aspects of language, ranging from phrasal verbs to auxiliary fronting. By having learned the syntactic structures of sentences, we have also learned the grammar implicit in these structures, which can in turn be used to produce new sentences. We show that our model mimicks children's language development from item-based constructions to abstract constructions, and that the model can simulate some of the errors made by children in producing complex questions. Copyright © 2009 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Probabilistic brains: knowns and unknowns
Pouget, Alexandre; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ma, Wei Ji; Latham, Peter E
2015-01-01
There is strong behavioral and physiological evidence that the brain both represents probability distributions and performs probabilistic inference. Computational neuroscientists have started to shed light on how these probabilistic representations and computations might be implemented in neural circuits. One particularly appealing aspect of these theories is their generality: they can be used to model a wide range of tasks, from sensory processing to high-level cognition. To date, however, these theories have only been applied to very simple tasks. Here we discuss the challenges that will emerge as researchers start focusing their efforts on real-life computations, with a focus on probabilistic learning, structural learning and approximate inference. PMID:23955561
Learning abstract visual concepts via probabilistic program induction in a Language of Thought.
Overlan, Matthew C; Jacobs, Robert A; Piantadosi, Steven T
2017-11-01
The ability to learn abstract concepts is a powerful component of human cognition. It has been argued that variable binding is the key element enabling this ability, but the computational aspects of variable binding remain poorly understood. Here, we address this shortcoming by formalizing the Hierarchical Language of Thought (HLOT) model of rule learning. Given a set of data items, the model uses Bayesian inference to infer a probability distribution over stochastic programs that implement variable binding. Because the model makes use of symbolic variables as well as Bayesian inference and programs with stochastic primitives, it combines many of the advantages of both symbolic and statistical approaches to cognitive modeling. To evaluate the model, we conducted an experiment in which human subjects viewed training items and then judged which test items belong to the same concept as the training items. We found that the HLOT model provides a close match to human generalization patterns, significantly outperforming two variants of the Generalized Context Model, one variant based on string similarity and the other based on visual similarity using features from a deep convolutional neural network. Additional results suggest that variable binding happens automatically, implying that binding operations do not add complexity to peoples' hypothesized rules. Overall, this work demonstrates that a cognitive model combining symbolic variables with Bayesian inference and stochastic program primitives provides a new perspective for understanding people's patterns of generalization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A comparison of algorithms for inference and learning in probabilistic graphical models.
Frey, Brendan J; Jojic, Nebojsa
2005-09-01
Research into methods for reasoning under uncertainty is currently one of the most exciting areas of artificial intelligence, largely because it has recently become possible to record, store, and process large amounts of data. While impressive achievements have been made in pattern classification problems such as handwritten character recognition, face detection, speaker identification, and prediction of gene function, it is even more exciting that researchers are on the verge of introducing systems that can perform large-scale combinatorial analyses of data, decomposing the data into interacting components. For example, computational methods for automatic scene analysis are now emerging in the computer vision community. These methods decompose an input image into its constituent objects, lighting conditions, motion patterns, etc. Two of the main challenges are finding effective representations and models in specific applications and finding efficient algorithms for inference and learning in these models. In this paper, we advocate the use of graph-based probability models and their associated inference and learning algorithms. We review exact techniques and various approximate, computationally efficient techniques, including iterated conditional modes, the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm, Gibbs sampling, the mean field method, variational techniques, structured variational techniques and the sum-product algorithm ("loopy" belief propagation). We describe how each technique can be applied in a vision model of multiple, occluding objects and contrast the behaviors and performances of the techniques using a unifying cost function, free energy.
A History of Probabilistic Inductive Logic Programming
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fabrizio eRiguzzi
2014-09-01
Full Text Available The field of Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP has seen significant advances in the last 20 years, with many proposals for languages that combine probability with logic programming. Since the start, the problem of learning probabilistic logic programs has been the focus of much attention. Learning these programs represents a whole subfield of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP. In Probabilistic ILP (PILP two problems are considered: learning the parameters of a program given the structure (the rules and learning both the structure and the parameters. Usually structure learning systems use parameter learning as a subroutine. In this article we present an overview of PILP and discuss the main results.
Constraint-Based Local Search for Constrained Optimum Paths Problems
Pham, Quang Dung; Deville, Yves; van Hentenryck, Pascal
Constrained Optimum Path (COP) problems arise in many real-life applications and are ubiquitous in communication networks. They have been traditionally approached by dedicated algorithms, which are often hard to extend with side constraints and to apply widely. This paper proposes a constraint-based local search (CBLS) framework for COP applications, bringing the compositionality, reuse, and extensibility at the core of CBLS and CP systems. The modeling contribution is the ability to express compositional models for various COP applications at a high level of abstraction, while cleanly separating the model and the search procedure. The main technical contribution is a connected neighborhood based on rooted spanning trees to find high-quality solutions to COP problems. The framework, implemented in COMET, is applied to Resource Constrained Shortest Path (RCSP) problems (with and without side constraints) and to the edge-disjoint paths problem (EDP). Computational results show the potential significance of the approach.
Probabilistic Cue Combination: Less Is More
Yurovsky, Daniel; Boyer, Ty W.; Smith, Linda B.; Yu, Chen
2013-01-01
Learning about the structure of the world requires learning probabilistic relationships: rules in which cues do not predict outcomes with certainty. However, in some cases, the ability to track probabilistic relationships is a handicap, leading adults to perform non-normatively in prediction tasks. For example, in the "dilution effect,"…
Probabilistic approaches to recommendations
Barbieri, Nicola; Ritacco, Ettore
2014-01-01
The importance of accurate recommender systems has been widely recognized by academia and industry, and recommendation is rapidly becoming one of the most successful applications of data mining and machine learning. Understanding and predicting the choices and preferences of users is a challenging task: real-world scenarios involve users behaving in complex situations, where prior beliefs, specific tendencies, and reciprocal influences jointly contribute to determining the preferences of users toward huge amounts of information, services, and products. Probabilistic modeling represents a robus
Bod, R.; Heine, B.; Narrog, H.
2010-01-01
Probabilistic linguistics takes all linguistic evidence as positive evidence and lets statistics decide. It allows for accurate modelling of gradient phenomena in production and perception, and suggests that rule-like behaviour is no more than a side effect of maximizing probability. This chapter
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Burcharth, H. F.
This chapter describes how partial safety factors can be used in design of vertical wall breakwaters and an example of a code format is presented. The partial safety factors are calibrated on a probabilistic basis. The code calibration process used to calibrate some of the partial safety factors...
Constraint-based modeling in microbial food biotechnology
Rau, Martin H.
2018-01-01
Genome-scale metabolic network reconstruction offers a means to leverage the value of the exponentially growing genomics data and integrate it with other biological knowledge in a structured format. Constraint-based modeling (CBM) enables both the qualitative and quantitative analyses of the reconstructed networks. The rapid advancements in these areas can benefit both the industrial production of microbial food cultures and their application in food processing. CBM provides several avenues for improving our mechanistic understanding of physiology and genotype–phenotype relationships. This is essential for the rational improvement of industrial strains, which can further be facilitated through various model-guided strain design approaches. CBM of microbial communities offers a valuable tool for the rational design of defined food cultures, where it can catalyze hypothesis generation and provide unintuitive rationales for the development of enhanced community phenotypes and, consequently, novel or improved food products. In the industrial-scale production of microorganisms for food cultures, CBM may enable a knowledge-driven bioprocess optimization by rationally identifying strategies for growth and stability improvement. Through these applications, we believe that CBM can become a powerful tool for guiding the areas of strain development, culture development and process optimization in the production of food cultures. Nevertheless, in order to make the correct choice of the modeling framework for a particular application and to interpret model predictions in a biologically meaningful manner, one should be aware of the current limitations of CBM. PMID:29588387
Augment clinical measurement using a constraint-based esophageal model
Kou, Wenjun; Acharya, Shashank; Kahrilas, Peter; Patankar, Neelesh; Pandolfino, John
2017-11-01
Quantifying the mechanical properties of the esophageal wall is crucial to understanding impairments of trans-esophageal flow characteristic of several esophageal diseases. However, these data are unavailable owing to technological limitations of current clinical diagnostic instruments that instead display esophageal luminal cross sectional area based on intraluminal impedance change. In this work, we developed an esophageal model to predict bolus flow and the wall property based on clinical measurements. The model used the constraint-based immersed-boundary method developed previously by our group. Specifically, we first approximate the time-dependent wall geometry based on impedance planimetry data on luminal cross sectional area. We then fed these along with pressure data into the model and computed wall tension based on simulated pressure and flow fields, and the material property based on the strain-stress relationship. As examples, we applied this model to augment FLIP (Functional Luminal Imaging Probe) measurements in three clinical cases: a normal subject, achalasia, and eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE). Our findings suggest that the wall stiffness was greatest in the EoE case, followed by the achalasia case, and then the normal. This is supported by NIH Grant R01 DK56033 and R01 DK079902.
Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks
Haenni, R.; Romeijn, J.-W.; Wheeler, G.; Williamson, J.
2009-01-01
While in principle probabilistic logics might be applied to solve a range of problems, in practice they are rarely applied at present. This is perhaps because they seem disparate, complicated, and computationally intractable. However, we shall argue in this programmatic paper that several approaches
Constraint-based Student Modelling in Probability Story Problems with Scaffolding Techniques
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nabila Khodeir
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Constraint-based student modelling (CBM is an important technique employed in intelligent tutoring systems to model student knowledge to provide relevant assistance. This paper introduces the Math Story Problem Tutor (MAST, a Web-based intelligent tutoring system for probability story problems, which is able to generate problems of different contexts, types and difficulty levels for self-paced learning. Constraints in MAST are specified at a low-level of granularity to allow fine-grained diagnosis of the student error. Furthermore, MAST extends CBM to address errors due to misunderstanding of the narrative story. It can locate and highlight keywords that may have been overlooked or misunderstood leading to an error. This is achieved by utilizing the role of sentences and keywords that are defined through the Natural Language Generation (NLG methods deployed in the story problem generation. MAST also integrates CBM with scaffolding questions and feedback to provide various forms of help and guidance to the student. This allows the student to discover and correct any errors in his/her solution. MAST has been preliminary evaluated empirically and the results show the potential effectiveness in tutoring students with a decrease in the percentage of violated constraints along the learning curve. Additionally, there is a significant improvement in the results of the post–test exam in comparison to the pre-test exam of the students using MAST in comparison to those relying on the textbook
Making Probabilistic Relational Categories Learnable
Jung, Wookyoung; Hummel, John E.
2015-01-01
Theories of relational concept acquisition (e.g., schema induction) based on structured intersection discovery predict that relational concepts with a probabilistic (i.e., family resemblance) structure ought to be extremely difficult to learn. We report four experiments testing this prediction by investigating conditions hypothesized to facilitate…
Probabilistic inductive inference: a survey
Ambainis, Andris
2001-01-01
Inductive inference is a recursion-theoretic theory of learning, first developed by E. M. Gold (1967). This paper surveys developments in probabilistic inductive inference. We mainly focus on finite inference of recursive functions, since this simple paradigm has produced the most interesting (and most complex) results.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mikaël Cozic
2016-11-01
Full Text Available The modeling of awareness and unawareness is a significant topic in the doxastic logic literature, where it is usually tackled in terms of full belief operators. The present paper aims at a treatment in terms of partial belief operators. It draws upon the modal probabilistic logic that was introduced by Aumann (1999 at the semantic level, and then axiomatized by Heifetz and Mongin (2001. The paper embodies in this framework those properties of unawareness that have been highlighted in the seminal paper by Modica and Rustichini (1999. Their paper deals with full belief, but we argue that the properties in question also apply to partial belief. Our main result is a (soundness and completeness theorem that reunites the two strands—modal and probabilistic—of doxastic logic.
D'Isanto, A.; Polsterer, K. L.
2018-01-01
Context. The need to analyze the available large synoptic multi-band surveys drives the development of new data-analysis methods. Photometric redshift estimation is one field of application where such new methods improved the results, substantially. Up to now, the vast majority of applied redshift estimation methods have utilized photometric features. Aims: We aim to develop a method to derive probabilistic photometric redshift directly from multi-band imaging data, rendering pre-classification of objects and feature extraction obsolete. Methods: A modified version of a deep convolutional network was combined with a mixture density network. The estimates are expressed as Gaussian mixture models representing the probability density functions (PDFs) in the redshift space. In addition to the traditional scores, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the probability integral transform (PIT) were applied as performance criteria. We have adopted a feature based random forest and a plain mixture density network to compare performances on experiments with data from SDSS (DR9). Results: We show that the proposed method is able to predict redshift PDFs independently from the type of source, for example galaxies, quasars or stars. Thereby the prediction performance is better than both presented reference methods and is comparable to results from the literature. Conclusions: The presented method is extremely general and allows us to solve of any kind of probabilistic regression problems based on imaging data, for example estimating metallicity or star formation rate of galaxies. This kind of methodology is tremendously important for the next generation of surveys.
Orhan, A Emin; Ma, Wei Ji
2017-07-26
Animals perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in a wide range of psychophysical tasks. Probabilistic inference requires trial-to-trial representation of the uncertainties associated with task variables and subsequent use of this representation. Previous work has implemented such computations using neural networks with hand-crafted and task-dependent operations. We show that generic neural networks trained with a simple error-based learning rule perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in nine common psychophysical tasks. In a probabilistic categorization task, error-based learning in a generic network simultaneously explains a monkey's learning curve and the evolution of qualitative aspects of its choice behavior. In all tasks, the number of neurons required for a given level of performance grows sublinearly with the input population size, a substantial improvement on previous implementations of probabilistic inference. The trained networks develop a novel sparsity-based probabilistic population code. Our results suggest that probabilistic inference emerges naturally in generic neural networks trained with error-based learning rules.Behavioural tasks often require probability distributions to be inferred about task specific variables. Here, the authors demonstrate that generic neural networks can be trained using a simple error-based learning rule to perform such probabilistic computations efficiently without any need for task specific operations.
A constraints-based approach to the acquisition of expertise in outdoor adventure sports
Davids, Keith; Brymer, Eric; Seifert, Ludovic; Orth, Dominic
2013-01-01
A constraints-based framework enables a new understanding of expertise in outdoor adventure sports by considering performer-environment couplings through emergent and self-organizing behaviours in relation to interacting constraints. Expert adventure athletes, conceptualized as complex, dynamical
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buttery, N.E.
2002-01-01
Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) have been used extensively in the design and licensing of Sizewell B. This paper outlines the role of PSA in the UK licensing process and describes how it has been applied to Sizewell B during both the pre-construction and pre-operational phases. From this experience a 'Living PSA' has been formulated which continues be used to support operation. The application of PSA to Sizewell B has demonstrated that it is a powerful tool with potential for future use. Its strengths and limitations as a tool need to recognised by both users and regulators. It is not a fully mechanistic means of ensuring design safety, but is an important aid to decision making. It also has the potential to allow risk judgements to be taken in conjunction with commercial and environmental issues. (author)
Students’ difficulties in probabilistic problem-solving
Arum, D. P.; Kusmayadi, T. A.; Pramudya, I.
2018-03-01
There are many errors can be identified when students solving mathematics problems, particularly in solving the probabilistic problem. This present study aims to investigate students’ difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It focuses on analyzing and describing students errors during solving the problem. This research used the qualitative method with case study strategy. The subjects in this research involve ten students of 9th grade that were selected by purposive sampling. Data in this research involve students’ probabilistic problem-solving result and recorded interview regarding students’ difficulties in solving the problem. Those data were analyzed descriptively using Miles and Huberman steps. The results show that students have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem and can be divided into three categories. First difficulties relate to students’ difficulties in understanding the probabilistic problem. Second, students’ difficulties in choosing and using appropriate strategies for solving the problem. Third, students’ difficulties with the computational process in solving the problem. Based on the result seems that students still have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It means that students have not able to use their knowledge and ability for responding probabilistic problem yet. Therefore, it is important for mathematics teachers to plan probabilistic learning which could optimize students probabilistic thinking ability.
Basu, Saikat; Ganguly, Sangram; Michaelis, Andrew; Votava, Petr; Roy, Anshuman; Mukhopadhyay, Supratik; Nemani, Ramakrishna
2015-01-01
Tree cover delineation is a useful instrument in deriving Above Ground Biomass (AGB) density estimates from Very High Resolution (VHR) airborne imagery data. Numerous algorithms have been designed to address this problem, but most of them do not scale to these datasets, which are of the order of terabytes. In this paper, we present a semi-automated probabilistic framework for the segmentation and classification of 1-m National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) for tree-cover delineation for the whole of Continental United States, using a High Performance Computing Architecture. Classification is performed using a multi-layer Feedforward Backpropagation Neural Network and segmentation is performed using a Statistical Region Merging algorithm. The results from the classification and segmentation algorithms are then consolidated into a structured prediction framework using a discriminative undirected probabilistic graphical model based on Conditional Random Field, which helps in capturing the higher order contextual dependencies between neighboring pixels. Once the final probability maps are generated, the framework is updated and re-trained by relabeling misclassified image patches. This leads to a significant improvement in the true positive rates and reduction in false positive rates. The tree cover maps were generated for the whole state of California, spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles. The framework produced true positive rates of around 88% for fragmented forests and 74% for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2% for both landscapes. Comparative studies with the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) algorithm and the LiDAR canopy height model (CHM) showed the effectiveness of our framework for generating accurate high-resolution tree-cover maps.
Basu, S.; Ganguly, S.; Michaelis, A.; Votava, P.; Roy, A.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Nemani, R. R.
2015-12-01
Tree cover delineation is a useful instrument in deriving Above Ground Biomass (AGB) density estimates from Very High Resolution (VHR) airborne imagery data. Numerous algorithms have been designed to address this problem, but most of them do not scale to these datasets which are of the order of terabytes. In this paper, we present a semi-automated probabilistic framework for the segmentation and classification of 1-m National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) for tree-cover delineation for the whole of Continental United States, using a High Performance Computing Architecture. Classification is performed using a multi-layer Feedforward Backpropagation Neural Network and segmentation is performed using a Statistical Region Merging algorithm. The results from the classification and segmentation algorithms are then consolidated into a structured prediction framework using a discriminative undirected probabilistic graphical model based on Conditional Random Field, which helps in capturing the higher order contextual dependencies between neighboring pixels. Once the final probability maps are generated, the framework is updated and re-trained by relabeling misclassified image patches. This leads to a significant improvement in the true positive rates and reduction in false positive rates. The tree cover maps were generated for the whole state of California, spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles. The framework produced true positive rates of around 88% for fragmented forests and 74% for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2% for both landscapes. Comparative studies with the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) algorithm and the LiDAR canopy height model (CHM) showed the effectiveness of our framework for generating accurate high-resolution tree-cover maps.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Yachao; Liu, Kaipei; Qin, Liang; An, Xueli
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Variational mode decomposition is adopted to process original wind power series. • A novel combined model based on machine learning methods is established. • An improved differential evolution algorithm is proposed for weight adjustment. • Probabilistic interval prediction is performed by quantile regression averaging. - Abstract: Due to the increasingly significant energy crisis nowadays, the exploitation and utilization of new clean energy gains more and more attention. As an important category of renewable energy, wind power generation has become the most rapidly growing renewable energy in China. However, the intermittency and volatility of wind power has restricted the large-scale integration of wind turbines into power systems. High-precision wind power forecasting is an effective measure to alleviate the negative influence of wind power generation on the power systems. In this paper, a novel combined model is proposed to improve the prediction performance for the short-term wind power forecasting. Variational mode decomposition is firstly adopted to handle the instability of the raw wind power series, and the subseries can be reconstructed by measuring sample entropy of the decomposed modes. Then the base models can be established for each subseries respectively. On this basis, the combined model is developed based on the optimal virtual prediction scheme, the weight matrix of which is dynamically adjusted by a self-adaptive multi-strategy differential evolution algorithm. Besides, a probabilistic interval prediction model based on quantile regression averaging and variational mode decomposition-based hybrid models is presented to quantify the potential risks of the wind power series. The simulation results indicate that: (1) the normalized mean absolute errors of the proposed combined model from one-step to three-step forecasting are 4.34%, 6.49% and 7.76%, respectively, which are much lower than those of the base models and the hybrid
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chang, X; Liu, S; Kalet, A; Yang, D
2016-01-01
Purpose: The purpose of this work was to investigate the ability of a machine-learning based probabilistic approach to detect radiotherapy treatment plan anomalies given initial disease classes information. Methods In total we obtained 1112 unique treatment plans with five plan parameters and disease information from a Mosaiq treatment management system database for use in the study. The plan parameters include prescription dose, fractions, fields, modality and techniques. The disease information includes disease site, and T, M and N disease stages. A Bayesian network method was employed to model the probabilistic relationships between tumor disease information, plan parameters and an anomaly flag. A Bayesian learning method with Dirichlet prior was useed to learn the joint probabilities between dependent variables in error-free plan data and data with artificially induced anomalies. In the study, we randomly sampled data with anomaly in a specified anomaly space.We tested the approach with three groups of plan anomalies – improper concurrence of values of all five plan parameters and values of any two out of five parameters, and all single plan parameter value anomalies. Totally, 16 types of plan anomalies were covered by the study. For each type, we trained an individual Bayesian network. Results: We found that the true positive rate (recall) and positive predictive value (precision) to detect concurrence anomalies of five plan parameters in new patient cases were 94.45±0.26% and 93.76±0.39% respectively. To detect other 15 types of plan anomalies, the average recall and precision were 93.61±2.57% and 93.78±3.54% respectively. The computation time to detect the plan anomaly of each type in a new plan is ∼0.08 seconds. Conclusion: The proposed method for treatment plan anomaly detection was found effective in the initial tests. The results suggest that this type of models could be applied to develop plan anomaly detection tools to assist manual and
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chang, X; Liu, S [Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO (United States); Kalet, A [University of Washington Medical Center, Seattle, WA (United States); Yang, D [Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, MO (United States)
2016-06-15
Purpose: The purpose of this work was to investigate the ability of a machine-learning based probabilistic approach to detect radiotherapy treatment plan anomalies given initial disease classes information. Methods In total we obtained 1112 unique treatment plans with five plan parameters and disease information from a Mosaiq treatment management system database for use in the study. The plan parameters include prescription dose, fractions, fields, modality and techniques. The disease information includes disease site, and T, M and N disease stages. A Bayesian network method was employed to model the probabilistic relationships between tumor disease information, plan parameters and an anomaly flag. A Bayesian learning method with Dirichlet prior was useed to learn the joint probabilities between dependent variables in error-free plan data and data with artificially induced anomalies. In the study, we randomly sampled data with anomaly in a specified anomaly space.We tested the approach with three groups of plan anomalies – improper concurrence of values of all five plan parameters and values of any two out of five parameters, and all single plan parameter value anomalies. Totally, 16 types of plan anomalies were covered by the study. For each type, we trained an individual Bayesian network. Results: We found that the true positive rate (recall) and positive predictive value (precision) to detect concurrence anomalies of five plan parameters in new patient cases were 94.45±0.26% and 93.76±0.39% respectively. To detect other 15 types of plan anomalies, the average recall and precision were 93.61±2.57% and 93.78±3.54% respectively. The computation time to detect the plan anomaly of each type in a new plan is ∼0.08 seconds. Conclusion: The proposed method for treatment plan anomaly detection was found effective in the initial tests. The results suggest that this type of models could be applied to develop plan anomaly detection tools to assist manual and
Milienne-Petiot, Morgane; Kesby, James P; Graves, Mary; van Enkhuizen, Jordy; Semenova, Svetlana; Minassian, Arpi; Markou, Athina; Geyer, Mark A; Young, Jared W
2017-02-01
Bipolar disorder (BD) mania patients exhibit poor cognition and reward-seeking/hypermotivation, negatively impacting a patient's quality of life. Current treatments (e.g., lithium), do not treat such deficits. Treatment development has been limited due to a poor understanding of the neural mechanisms underlying these behaviors. Here, we investigated putative mechanisms underlying cognition and reward-seeking/motivational changes relevant to BD mania patients using two validated mouse models and neurochemical analyses. The effects of reducing dopamine transporter (DAT) functioning via genetic (knockdown vs. wild-type littermates), or pharmacological (GBR12909- vs. vehicle-treated C57BL/6J mice) means were assessed in the probabilistic reversal learning task (PRLT), and progressive ratio breakpoint (PRB) test, during either water or chronic lithium treatment. These tasks quantify reward learning and effortful motivation, respectively. Neurochemistry was performed on brain samples of DAT mutants ± chronic lithium using high performance liquid chromatography. Reduced DAT functioning increased reversals in the PRLT, an effect partially attenuated by chronic lithium. Chronic lithium alone slowed PRLT acquisition. Reduced DAT functioning increased motivation (PRB), an effect attenuated by lithium in GBR12909-treated mice. Neurochemical analyses revealed that DAT knockdown mice exhibited elevated homovanillic acid levels, but that lithium had no effect on these elevated levels. Reducing DAT functioning recreates many aspects of BD mania including hypermotivation and improved reversal learning (switching), as well as elevated homovanillic acid levels. Chronic lithium only exerted main effects, impairing learning and elevating norepinephrine and serotonin levels of mice, not specifically treating the underlying mechanisms identified in these models. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Woldegebriel, Michael; Zomer, Paul; Mol, Hans G J; Vivó-Truyols, Gabriel
2016-08-02
In this work, we introduce an automated, efficient, and elegant model to combine all pieces of evidence (e.g., expected retention times, peak shapes, isotope distributions, fragment-to-parent ratio) obtained from liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS/MS) data for screening purposes. Combining all these pieces of evidence requires a careful assessment of the uncertainties in the analytical system as well as all possible outcomes. To-date, the majority of the existing algorithms are highly dependent on user input parameters. Additionally, the screening process is tackled as a deterministic problem. In this work we present a Bayesian framework to deal with the combination of all these pieces of evidence. Contrary to conventional algorithms, the information is treated in a probabilistic way, and a final probability assessment of the presence/absence of a compound feature is computed. Additionally, all the necessary parameters except the chromatographic band broadening for the method are learned from the data in training and learning phase of the algorithm, avoiding the introduction of a large number of user-defined parameters. The proposed method was validated with a large data set and has shown improved sensitivity and specificity in comparison to a threshold-based commercial software package.
Watanabe, Noriya; Sakagami, Masamichi; Haruno, Masahiko
2013-03-06
Learning does not only depend on rationality, because real-life learning cannot be isolated from emotion or social factors. Therefore, it is intriguing to determine how emotion changes learning, and to identify which neural substrates underlie this interaction. Here, we show that the task-independent presentation of an emotional face before a reward-predicting cue increases the speed of cue-reward association learning in human subjects compared with trials in which a neutral face is presented. This phenomenon was attributable to an increase in the learning rate, which regulates reward prediction errors. Parallel to these behavioral findings, functional magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated that presentation of an emotional face enhanced reward prediction error (RPE) signal in the ventral striatum. In addition, we also found a functional link between this enhanced RPE signal and increased activity in the amygdala following presentation of an emotional face. Thus, this study revealed an acceleration of cue-reward association learning by emotion, and underscored a role of striatum-amygdala interactions in the modulation of the reward prediction errors by emotion.
Schweizer, B
2005-01-01
Topics include special classes of probabilistic metric spaces, topologies, and several related structures, such as probabilistic normed and inner-product spaces. 1983 edition, updated with 3 new appendixes. Includes 17 illustrations.
Mastering probabilistic graphical models using Python
Ankan, Ankur
2015-01-01
If you are a researcher or a machine learning enthusiast, or are working in the data science field and have a basic idea of Bayesian learning or probabilistic graphical models, this book will help you to understand the details of graphical models and use them in your data science problems.
An Improved Constraint-Based System for the Verification of Security Protocols
Corin, R.J.; Etalle, Sandro
We propose a constraint-based system for the verification of security protocols that improves upon the one developed by Millen and Shmatikov [30]. Our system features (1) a significantly more efficient implementation, (2) a monotonic behavior, which also allows to detect flaws associated to partial
ASPIRE: An Authoring System and Deployment Environment for Constraint-Based Tutors
Mitrovic, Antonija; Martin, Brent; Suraweera, Pramuditha; Zakharov, Konstantin; Milik, Nancy; Holland, Jay; McGuigan, Nicholas
2009-01-01
Over the last decade, the Intelligent Computer Tutoring Group (ICTG) has implemented many successful constraint-based Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) in a variety of instructional domains. Our tutors have proven their effectiveness not only in controlled lab studies but also in real classrooms, and some of them have been commercialized.…
Constraint-based solver for the Military unit path finding problem
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Leenen, L
2010-04-01
Full Text Available -based approach because it requires flexibility in modelling. The authors formulate the MUPFP as a constraint satisfaction problem and a constraint-based extension of the search algorithm. The concept demonstrator uses a provided map, for example taken from Google...
An Improved Constraint-based system for the verification of security protocols
Corin, R.J.; Etalle, Sandro; Hermenegildo, Manuel V.; Puebla, German
We propose a constraint-based system for the verification of security protocols that improves upon the one developed by Millen and Shmatikov. Our system features (1) a significantly more efficient implementation, (2) a monotonic behavior, which also allows to detect aws associated to partial runs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jennifer N. Hird
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Modern advances in cloud computing and machine-leaning algorithms are shifting the manner in which Earth-observation (EO data are used for environmental monitoring, particularly as we settle into the era of free, open-access satellite data streams. Wetland delineation represents a particularly worthy application of this emerging research trend, since wetlands are an ecologically important yet chronically under-represented component of contemporary mapping and monitoring programs, particularly at the regional and national levels. Exploiting Google Earth Engine and R Statistical software, we developed a workflow for predicting the probability of wetland occurrence using a boosted regression tree machine-learning framework applied to digital topographic and EO data. Working in a 13,700 km2 study area in northern Alberta, our best models produced excellent results, with AUC (area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve values of 0.898 and explained-deviance values of 0.708. Our results demonstrate the central role of high-quality topographic variables for modeling wetland distribution at regional scales. Including optical and/or radar variables into the workflow substantially improved model performance, though optical data performed slightly better. Converting our wetland probability-of-occurrence model into a binary Wet-Dry classification yielded an overall accuracy of 85%, which is virtually identical to that derived from the Alberta Merged Wetland Inventory (AMWI: the contemporary inventory used by the Government of Alberta. However, our workflow contains several key advantages over that used to produce the AMWI, and provides a scalable foundation for province-wide monitoring initiatives.
Probabilistic Logical Characterization
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hermanns, Holger; Parma, Augusto; Segala, Roberto
2011-01-01
Probabilistic automata exhibit both probabilistic and non-deterministic choice. They are therefore a powerful semantic foundation for modeling concurrent systems with random phenomena arising in many applications ranging from artificial intelligence, security, systems biology to performance...... modeling. Several variations of bisimulation and simulation relations have proved to be useful as means to abstract and compare different automata. This paper develops a taxonomy of logical characterizations of these relations on image-finite and image-infinite probabilistic automata....
Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting
Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.
2003-01-01
Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...
Conditional probabilistic population forecasting
Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang
2003-01-01
Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...
Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting
Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang
2004-01-01
Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...
Probabilistic Open Set Recognition
Jain, Lalit Prithviraj
Real-world tasks in computer vision, pattern recognition and machine learning often touch upon the open set recognition problem: multi-class recognition with incomplete knowledge of the world and many unknown inputs. An obvious way to approach such problems is to develop a recognition system that thresholds probabilities to reject unknown classes. Traditional rejection techniques are not about the unknown; they are about the uncertain boundary and rejection around that boundary. Thus traditional techniques only represent the "known unknowns". However, a proper open set recognition algorithm is needed to reduce the risk from the "unknown unknowns". This dissertation examines this concept and finds existing probabilistic multi-class recognition approaches are ineffective for true open set recognition. We hypothesize the cause is due to weak adhoc assumptions combined with closed-world assumptions made by existing calibration techniques. Intuitively, if we could accurately model just the positive data for any known class without overfitting, we could reject the large set of unknown classes even under this assumption of incomplete class knowledge. For this, we formulate the problem as one of modeling positive training data by invoking statistical extreme value theory (EVT) near the decision boundary of positive data with respect to negative data. We provide a new algorithm called the PI-SVM for estimating the unnormalized posterior probability of class inclusion. This dissertation also introduces a new open set recognition model called Compact Abating Probability (CAP), where the probability of class membership decreases in value (abates) as points move from known data toward open space. We show that CAP models improve open set recognition for multiple algorithms. Leveraging the CAP formulation, we go on to describe the novel Weibull-calibrated SVM (W-SVM) algorithm, which combines the useful properties of statistical EVT for score calibration with one-class and binary
Hower, Walter; Graf, Winfried H.
1995-01-01
The present work compiles numerous papers in the area of computer-aided design, graphics, layout configuration, and user interfaces in general. There is nearly no conference on graphics, multimedia, and user interfaces that does not include a section on constraint-based graphics; on the other hand most conferences on constraint processing favour applications in graphics. This work of bibliographical pointers may serve as a basis for a detailed and comprehensive survey of this important and ch...
Duplicate Detection in Probabilistic Data
Panse, Fabian; van Keulen, Maurice; de Keijzer, Ander; Ritter, Norbert
2009-01-01
Collected data often contains uncertainties. Probabilistic databases have been proposed to manage uncertain data. To combine data from multiple autonomous probabilistic databases, an integration of probabilistic data has to be performed. Until now, however, data integration approaches have focused
Constraint-based modeling and kinetic analysis of the Smad dependent TGF-beta signaling pathway.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhike Zi
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Investigation of dynamics and regulation of the TGF-beta signaling pathway is central to the understanding of complex cellular processes such as growth, apoptosis, and differentiation. In this study, we aim at using systems biology approach to provide dynamic analysis on this pathway. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We proposed a constraint-based modeling method to build a comprehensive mathematical model for the Smad dependent TGF-beta signaling pathway by fitting the experimental data and incorporating the qualitative constraints from the experimental analysis. The performance of the model generated by constraint-based modeling method is significantly improved compared to the model obtained by only fitting the quantitative data. The model agrees well with the experimental analysis of TGF-beta pathway, such as the time course of nuclear phosphorylated Smad, the subcellular location of Smad and signal response of Smad phosphorylation to different doses of TGF-beta. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The simulation results indicate that the signal response to TGF-beta is regulated by the balance between clathrin dependent endocytosis and non-clathrin mediated endocytosis. This model is useful to be built upon as new precise experimental data are emerging. The constraint-based modeling method can also be applied to quantitative modeling of other signaling pathways.
Ignorability in Statistical and Probabilistic Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred
2005-01-01
When dealing with incomplete data in statistical learning, or incomplete observations in probabilistic inference, one needs to distinguish the fact that a certain event is observed from the fact that the observed event has happened. Since the modeling and computational complexities entailed...
A probabilistic model for component-based shape synthesis
Kalogerakis, Evangelos; Chaudhuri, Siddhartha; Koller, Daphne; Koltun, Vladlen
2012-01-01
represents probabilistic relationships between properties of shape components, and relates them to learned underlying causes of structural variability within the domain. These causes are treated as latent variables, leading to a compact representation
Inherently stochastic spiking neurons for probabilistic neural computation
Al-Shedivat, Maruan; Naous, Rawan; Neftci, Emre; Cauwenberghs, Gert; Salama, Khaled N.
2015-01-01
. Our analysis and simulations show that the proposed neuron circuit satisfies a neural computability condition that enables probabilistic neural sampling and spike-based Bayesian learning and inference. Our findings constitute an important step towards
Sari, Dwi Ivayana; Budayasa, I. Ketut; Juniati, Dwi
2017-08-01
Formulation of mathematical learning goals now is not only oriented on cognitive product, but also leads to cognitive process, which is probabilistic thinking. Probabilistic thinking is needed by students to make a decision. Elementary school students are required to develop probabilistic thinking as foundation to learn probability at higher level. A framework of probabilistic thinking of students had been developed by using SOLO taxonomy, which consists of prestructural probabilistic thinking, unistructural probabilistic thinking, multistructural probabilistic thinking and relational probabilistic thinking. This study aimed to analyze of probability task completion based on taxonomy of probabilistic thinking. The subjects were two students of fifth grade; boy and girl. Subjects were selected by giving test of mathematical ability and then based on high math ability. Subjects were given probability tasks consisting of sample space, probability of an event and probability comparison. The data analysis consisted of categorization, reduction, interpretation and conclusion. Credibility of data used time triangulation. The results was level of boy's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated multistructural probabilistic thinking, while level of girl's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated unistructural probabilistic thinking. The results indicated that level of boy's probabilistic thinking was higher than level of girl's probabilistic thinking. The results could contribute to curriculum developer in developing probability learning goals for elementary school students. Indeed, teachers could teach probability with regarding gender difference.
Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program
Pai, Shantaram S.; Chamis, Christos C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Stefko, George L.; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben H.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Mital, Subodh K.
2010-01-01
NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.
Probabilistic programmable quantum processors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buzek, V.; Ziman, M.; Hillery, M.
2004-01-01
We analyze how to improve performance of probabilistic programmable quantum processors. We show how the probability of success of the probabilistic processor can be enhanced by using the processor in loops. In addition, we show that an arbitrary SU(2) transformations of qubits can be encoded in program state of a universal programmable probabilistic quantum processor. The probability of success of this processor can be enhanced by a systematic correction of errors via conditional loops. Finally, we show that all our results can be generalized also for qudits. (Abstract Copyright [2004], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Milewski, J.O.; Lambrakos, S.G.
1995-01-01
This report presents a general overview of a method of numerically modelling deep penetration welding processes using geometric constraints based on boundary information obtained from experiment. General issues are considered concerning accurate numerical calculation of temperature and velocity fields in regions of the meltpool where the flow of fluid is characterized by quasi-stationary Stokes flow. It is this region of the meltpool which is closest to the heat-affected-zone (HAZ) and which represents a significant fraction of the fusion zone (FZ)
Probabilistic Infinite Secret Sharing
Csirmaz, László
2013-01-01
The study of probabilistic secret sharing schemes using arbitrary probability spaces and possibly infinite number of participants lets us investigate abstract properties of such schemes. It highlights important properties, explains why certain definitions work better than others, connects this topic to other branches of mathematics, and might yield new design paradigms. A probabilistic secret sharing scheme is a joint probability distribution of the shares and the secret together with a colle...
A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.
Budinich, Marko; Bourdon, Jérémie; Larhlimi, Abdelhalim; Eveillard, Damien
2017-01-01
Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs) for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA) and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA). Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity) that take place at the ecosystem scale.
A constraint-based model of Scheffersomyces stipitis for improved ethanol production
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liu Ting
2012-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background As one of the best xylose utilization microorganisms, Scheffersomyces stipitis exhibits great potential for the efficient lignocellulosic biomass fermentation. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of its unique physiological and metabolic characteristics is required to further improve its performance on cellulosic ethanol production. Results A constraint-based genome-scale metabolic model for S. stipitis CBS 6054 was developed on the basis of its genomic, transcriptomic and literature information. The model iTL885 consists of 885 genes, 870 metabolites, and 1240 reactions. During the reconstruction process, 36 putative sugar transporters were reannotated and the metabolisms of 7 sugars were illuminated. Essentiality study was conducted to predict essential genes on different growth media. Key factors affecting cell growth and ethanol formation were investigated by the use of constraint-based analysis. Furthermore, the uptake systems and metabolic routes of xylose were elucidated, and the optimization strategies for the overproduction of ethanol were proposed from both genetic and environmental perspectives. Conclusions Systems biology modelling has proven to be a powerful tool for targeting metabolic changes. Thus, this systematic investigation of the metabolism of S. stipitis could be used as a starting point for future experiment designs aimed at identifying the metabolic bottlenecks of this important yeast.
HOROPLAN: computer-assisted nurse scheduling using constraint-based programming.
Darmoni, S J; Fajner, A; Mahé, N; Leforestier, A; Vondracek, M; Stelian, O; Baldenweck, M
1995-01-01
Nurse scheduling is a difficult and time consuming task. The schedule has to determine the day to day shift assignments of each nurse for a specified period of time in a way that satisfies the given requirements as much as possible, taking into account the wishes of nurses as closely as possible. This paper presents a constraint-based, artificial intelligence approach by describing a prototype implementation developed with the Charme language and the first results of its use in the Rouen University Hospital. Horoplan implements a non-cyclical constraint-based scheduling, using some heuristics. Four levels of constraints were defined to give a maximum of flexibility: French level (e.g. number of worked hours in a year), hospital level (e.g. specific day-off), department level (e.g. specific shift) and care unit level (e.g. specific pattern for week-ends). Some constraints must always be verified and can not be overruled and some constraints can be overruled at a certain cost. Rescheduling is possible at any time specially in case of an unscheduled absence.
A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marko Budinich
Full Text Available Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA. Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity that take place at the ecosystem scale.
Sayers, Adrian; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Blom, Ashley W; Steele, Fiona
2016-06-01
Studies involving the use of probabilistic record linkage are becoming increasingly common. However, the methods underpinning probabilistic record linkage are not widely taught or understood, and therefore these studies can appear to be a 'black box' research tool. In this article, we aim to describe the process of probabilistic record linkage through a simple exemplar. We first introduce the concept of deterministic linkage and contrast this with probabilistic linkage. We illustrate each step of the process using a simple exemplar and describe the data structure required to perform a probabilistic linkage. We describe the process of calculating and interpreting matched weights and how to convert matched weights into posterior probabilities of a match using Bayes theorem. We conclude this article with a brief discussion of some of the computational demands of record linkage, how you might assess the quality of your linkage algorithm, and how epidemiologists can maximize the value of their record-linked research using robust record linkage methods. © The Author 2015; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.
A constraint-based approach to intelligent support of nuclear reactor design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Furuta, Kazuo
1993-01-01
Constraint is a powerful representation to formulate and solve problems in design; a constraint-based approach to intelligent support of nuclear reactor design is proposed. We first discuss the features of the approach, and then present the architecture of a nuclear reactor design support system under development. In this design support system, the knowledge base contains constraints useful to structure the design space as object class definitions, and several types of constraint resolvers are provided as design support subsystems. The adopted method of constraint resolution are explained in detail. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated using two design problems: Design window search and multiobjective optimization in nuclear reactor design. (orig./HP)
Clinical Processes - The Killer Application for Constraint-Based Process Interactions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jiménez-Ramírez, Andrés; Barba, Irene; Reichert, Manfred
2018-01-01
. The scenario is subject to complex temporal constraints and entails the need for coordinating the constraint-based interactions among the processes related to a patient treatment process. As demonstrated in this work, the selected real process scenario can be suitably modeled through a declarative approach....... examples. However, to the best of our knowledge, they have not been used to model complex, real-world scenarios that comprise constraints going beyond control-flow. In this paper, we propose the use of a declarative language for modeling a sophisticated healthcare process scenario from the real world......For more than a decade, the interest in aligning information systems in a process-oriented way has been increasing. To enable operational support for business processes, the latter are usually specified in an imperative way. The resulting process models, however, tend to be too rigid to meet...
Formalizing Probabilistic Safety Claims
Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Hagen, George E.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.
2011-01-01
A safety claim for a system is a statement that the system, which is subject to hazardous conditions, satisfies a given set of properties. Following work by John Rushby and Bev Littlewood, this paper presents a mathematical framework that can be used to state and formally prove probabilistic safety claims. It also enables hazardous conditions, their uncertainties, and their interactions to be integrated into the safety claim. This framework provides a formal description of the probabilistic composition of an arbitrary number of hazardous conditions and their effects on system behavior. An example is given of a probabilistic safety claim for a conflict detection algorithm for aircraft in a 2D airspace. The motivation for developing this mathematical framework is that it can be used in an automated theorem prover to formally verify safety claims.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Mardare, Radu Iulian; Xue, Bingtian
2016-01-01
We introduce a version of the probabilistic µ-calculus (PMC) built on top of a probabilistic modal logic that allows encoding n-ary inequational conditions on transition probabilities. PMC extends previously studied calculi and we prove that, despite its expressiveness, it enjoys a series of good...... metaproperties. Firstly, we prove the decidability of satisﬁability checking by establishing the small model property. An algorithm for deciding the satisﬁability problem is developed. As a second major result, we provide a complete axiomatization for the alternation-free fragment of PMC. The completeness proof...
Probabilistic conditional independence structures
Studeny, Milan
2005-01-01
Probabilistic Conditional Independence Structures provides the mathematical description of probabilistic conditional independence structures; the author uses non-graphical methods of their description, and takes an algebraic approach.The monograph presents the methods of structural imsets and supermodular functions, and deals with independence implication and equivalence of structural imsets.Motivation, mathematical foundations and areas of application are included, and a rough overview of graphical methods is also given.In particular, the author has been careful to use suitable terminology, and presents the work so that it will be understood by both statisticians, and by researchers in artificial intelligence.The necessary elementary mathematical notions are recalled in an appendix.
Probabilistic approach to mechanisms
Sandler, BZ
1984-01-01
This book discusses the application of probabilistics to the investigation of mechanical systems. The book shows, for example, how random function theory can be applied directly to the investigation of random processes in the deflection of cam profiles, pitch or gear teeth, pressure in pipes, etc. The author also deals with some other technical applications of probabilistic theory, including, amongst others, those relating to pneumatic and hydraulic mechanisms and roller bearings. Many of the aspects are illustrated by examples of applications of the techniques under discussion.
Chang, Su-Chao; Chou, Chi-Min
2012-11-01
The objective of this study was to determine empirically the role of constraint-based and dedication-based influences as drivers of the intention to continue using online shopping websites. Constraint-based influences consist of two variables: trust and perceived switching costs. Dedication-based influences consist of three variables: satisfaction, perceived usefulness, and trust. The current results indicate that both constraint-based and dedication-based influences are important drivers of the intention to continue using online shopping websites. The data also shows that trust has the strongest total effect on online shoppers' intention to continue using online shopping websites. In addition, the results indicate that the antecedents of constraint-based influences, technical bonds (e.g., perceived operational competence and perceived website interactivity) and social bonds (e.g., perceived relationship investment, community building, and intimacy) have indirect positive effects on the intention to continue using online shopping websites. Based on these findings, this research suggests that online shopping websites should build constraint-based and dedication-based influences to enhance user's continued online shopping behaviors simultaneously.
Probabilistic systems coalgebraically: A survey
Sokolova, Ana
2011-01-01
We survey the work on both discrete and continuous-space probabilistic systems as coalgebras, starting with how probabilistic systems are modeled as coalgebras and followed by a discussion of their bisimilarity and behavioral equivalence, mentioning results that follow from the coalgebraic treatment of probabilistic systems. It is interesting to note that, for different reasons, for both discrete and continuous probabilistic systems it may be more convenient to work with behavioral equivalence than with bisimilarity. PMID:21998490
Confluence reduction for probabilistic systems
Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette
In this presentation we introduce a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We proved that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To
Bergstra, J.A.; Middelburg, C.A.
2015-01-01
We add probabilistic features to basic thread algebra and its extensions with thread-service interaction and strategic interleaving. Here, threads represent the behaviours produced by instruction sequences under execution and services represent the behaviours exhibited by the components of execution
Probabilistic simple sticker systems
Selvarajoo, Mathuri; Heng, Fong Wan; Sarmin, Nor Haniza; Turaev, Sherzod
2017-04-01
A model for DNA computing using the recombination behavior of DNA molecules, known as a sticker system, was introduced by by L. Kari, G. Paun, G. Rozenberg, A. Salomaa, and S. Yu in the paper entitled DNA computing, sticker systems and universality from the journal of Acta Informatica vol. 35, pp. 401-420 in the year 1998. A sticker system uses the Watson-Crick complementary feature of DNA molecules: starting from the incomplete double stranded sequences, and iteratively using sticking operations until a complete double stranded sequence is obtained. It is known that sticker systems with finite sets of axioms and sticker rules generate only regular languages. Hence, different types of restrictions have been considered to increase the computational power of sticker systems. Recently, a variant of restricted sticker systems, called probabilistic sticker systems, has been introduced [4]. In this variant, the probabilities are initially associated with the axioms, and the probability of a generated string is computed by multiplying the probabilities of all occurrences of the initial strings in the computation of the string. Strings for the language are selected according to some probabilistic requirements. In this paper, we study fundamental properties of probabilistic simple sticker systems. We prove that the probabilistic enhancement increases the computational power of simple sticker systems.
Visualizing Probabilistic Proof
Guerra-Pujol, Enrique
2015-01-01
The author revisits the Blue Bus Problem, a famous thought-experiment in law involving probabilistic proof, and presents simple Bayesian solutions to different versions of the blue bus hypothetical. In addition, the author expresses his solutions in standard and visual formats, i.e. in terms of probabilities and natural frequencies.
Memristive Probabilistic Computing
Alahmadi, Hamzah
2017-10-01
In the era of Internet of Things and Big Data, unconventional techniques are rising to accommodate the large size of data and the resource constraints. New computing structures are advancing based on non-volatile memory technologies and different processing paradigms. Additionally, the intrinsic resiliency of current applications leads to the development of creative techniques in computations. In those applications, approximate computing provides a perfect fit to optimize the energy efficiency while compromising on the accuracy. In this work, we build probabilistic adders based on stochastic memristor. Probabilistic adders are analyzed with respect of the stochastic behavior of the underlying memristors. Multiple adder implementations are investigated and compared. The memristive probabilistic adder provides a different approach from the typical approximate CMOS adders. Furthermore, it allows for a high area saving and design exibility between the performance and power saving. To reach a similar performance level as approximate CMOS adders, the memristive adder achieves 60% of power saving. An image-compression application is investigated using the memristive probabilistic adders with the performance and the energy trade-off.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chen, Peiyuan; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte
2008-01-01
This paper reviews the development of the probabilistic load flow (PLF) techniques. Applications of the PLF techniques in different areas of power system steady-state analysis are also discussed. The purpose of the review is to identify different available PLF techniques and their corresponding...
Transitive probabilistic CLIR models.
Kraaij, W.; de Jong, Franciska M.G.
2004-01-01
Transitive translation could be a useful technique to enlarge the number of supported language pairs for a cross-language information retrieval (CLIR) system in a cost-effective manner. The paper describes several setups for transitive translation based on probabilistic translation models. The
Respiration climacteric in tomato fruits elucidated by constraint-based modelling.
Colombié, Sophie; Beauvoit, Bertrand; Nazaret, Christine; Bénard, Camille; Vercambre, Gilles; Le Gall, Sophie; Biais, Benoit; Cabasson, Cécile; Maucourt, Mickaël; Bernillon, Stéphane; Moing, Annick; Dieuaide-Noubhani, Martine; Mazat, Jean-Pierre; Gibon, Yves
2017-03-01
Tomato is a model organism to study the development of fleshy fruit including ripening initiation. Unfortunately, few studies deal with the brief phase of accelerated ripening associated with the respiration climacteric because of practical problems involved in measuring fruit respiration. Because constraint-based modelling allows predicting accurate metabolic fluxes, we investigated the respiration and energy dissipation of fruit pericarp at the breaker stage using a detailed stoichiometric model of the respiratory pathway, including alternative oxidase and uncoupling proteins. Assuming steady-state, a metabolic dataset was transformed into constraints to solve the model on a daily basis throughout tomato fruit development. We detected a peak of CO 2 released and an excess of energy dissipated at 40 d post anthesis (DPA) just before the onset of ripening coinciding with the respiration climacteric. We demonstrated the unbalanced carbon allocation with the sharp slowdown of accumulation (for syntheses and storage) and the beginning of the degradation of starch and cell wall polysaccharides. Experiments with fruits harvested from plants cultivated under stress conditions confirmed the concept. We conclude that modelling with an accurate metabolic dataset is an efficient tool to bypass the difficulty of measuring fruit respiration and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of ripening. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lidbury, D.; Bass, R.; Gilles, Ph.; Connors, D.; Eisele, U.; Keim, E.; Keinanen, H.; Marie, St.; Nagel, G.; Taylor, N.; Wadier, Y.
2001-01-01
The pattern of crack-tip stresses and strains causing plastic flow and fracture in components is different to that in test specimens. This gives rise to the so-called constraint effect. Crack-tip constraint in components is generally lower than in test specimens. Effective toughness is correspondingly higher. The fracture toughness measured on test specimens is thus likely to underestimate that exhibited by cracks in components. A 36-month programme was initiated in October 2000 as part of the Fifth Framework of the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM), with the objective of achieving (i) an improved defect assessment methodology for predicting safety margins; (ii) improved lifetime management arguments. The programme VOCALIST (Validation of Constraint Based Methodology in Structural Integrity) is one of a 'cluster' of Fifth Framework projects in the area of Plant Life Management (Nuclear Fission). VOCALIST is also an associated project of NESC (Network for Evaluating Steel Components). The present paper describes the aims and objectives of VOCALIST, its interactions with NESC, and gives details of its various Work Packages. (authors)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lidbury, D. [AEA Technology, Consulting (United Kingdom); Bass, R. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Gilles, Ph. [FRAMATOME, 92 - Paris-La-Defence (France); Connors, D. [BNFL Magnox Generation (United Kingdom); Eisele, U. [Multiphoton Absorption, MPA, Stuttgart (Germany); Keim, E. [Framatome ANP GmbH (Germany); Keinanen, H. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Marie, St. [CEA Saclay, Dept. de Mecanique et de Technologie, 91 - Gif sur Yvette (France); Nagel, G. [E.ON Kernraft (Germany); Taylor, N. [Joint Research Center, JRC-IAM (Netherlands); Wadier, Y. [Electricite de France (EDF), 93 - Saint-Denis (France). Dept. de Radioprotection
2001-07-01
The pattern of crack-tip stresses and strains causing plastic flow and fracture in components is different to that in test specimens. This gives rise to the so-called constraint effect. Crack-tip constraint in components is generally lower than in test specimens. Effective toughness is correspondingly higher. The fracture toughness measured on test specimens is thus likely to underestimate that exhibited by cracks in components. A 36-month programme was initiated in October 2000 as part of the Fifth Framework of the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM), with the objective of achieving (i) an improved defect assessment methodology for predicting safety margins; (ii) improved lifetime management arguments. The programme VOCALIST (Validation of Constraint Based Methodology in Structural Integrity) is one of a 'cluster' of Fifth Framework projects in the area of Plant Life Management (Nuclear Fission). VOCALIST is also an associated project of NESC (Network for Evaluating Steel Components). The present paper describes the aims and objectives of VOCALIST, its interactions with NESC, and gives details of its various Work Packages. (authors)
Probabilistic assessment of faults
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Foden, R.W.
1987-01-01
Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is the process by which the probability (or frequency of occurrence) of reactor fault conditions which could lead to unacceptable consequences is assessed. The basic objective of a PSA is to allow a judgement to be made as to whether or not the principal probabilistic requirement is satisfied. It also gives insights into the reliability of the plant which can be used to identify possible improvements. This is explained in the article. The scope of a PSA and the PSA performed by the National Nuclear Corporation (NNC) for the Heysham II and Torness AGRs and Sizewell-B PWR are discussed. The NNC methods for hazards, common cause failure and operator error are mentioned. (UK)
Probabilistic Model Development
Adam, James H., Jr.
2010-01-01
Objective: Develop a Probabilistic Model for the Solar Energetic Particle Environment. Develop a tool to provide a reference solar particle radiation environment that: 1) Will not be exceeded at a user-specified confidence level; 2) Will provide reference environments for: a) Peak flux; b) Event-integrated fluence; and c) Mission-integrated fluence. The reference environments will consist of: a) Elemental energy spectra; b) For protons, helium and heavier ions.
Geothermal probabilistic cost study
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Orren, L.H.; Ziman, G.M.; Jones, S.C.; Lee, T.K.; Noll, R.; Wilde, L.; Sadanand, V.
1981-08-01
A tool is presented to quantify the risks of geothermal projects, the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPCM). The GPCM model is used to evaluate a geothermal reservoir for a binary-cycle electric plant at Heber, California. Three institutional aspects of the geothermal risk which can shift the risk among different agents are analyzed. The leasing of geothermal land, contracting between the producer and the user of the geothermal heat, and insurance against faulty performance are examined. (MHR)
Probabilistic liver atlas construction.
Dura, Esther; Domingo, Juan; Ayala, Guillermo; Marti-Bonmati, Luis; Goceri, E
2017-01-13
Anatomical atlases are 3D volumes or shapes representing an organ or structure of the human body. They contain either the prototypical shape of the object of interest together with other shapes representing its statistical variations (statistical atlas) or a probability map of belonging to the object (probabilistic atlas). Probabilistic atlases are mostly built with simple estimations only involving the data at each spatial location. A new method for probabilistic atlas construction that uses a generalized linear model is proposed. This method aims to improve the estimation of the probability to be covered by the liver. Furthermore, all methods to build an atlas involve previous coregistration of the sample of shapes available. The influence of the geometrical transformation adopted for registration in the quality of the final atlas has not been sufficiently investigated. The ability of an atlas to adapt to a new case is one of the most important quality criteria that should be taken into account. The presented experiments show that some methods for atlas construction are severely affected by the previous coregistration step. We show the good performance of the new approach. Furthermore, results suggest that extremely flexible registration methods are not always beneficial, since they can reduce the variability of the atlas and hence its ability to give sensible values of probability when used as an aid in segmentation of new cases.
Belytschko, Ted; Wing, Kam Liu
1987-01-01
In the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM), finite element methods have been efficiently combined with second-order perturbation techniques to provide an effective method for informing the designer of the range of response which is likely in a given problem. The designer must provide as input the statistical character of the input variables, such as yield strength, load magnitude, and Young's modulus, by specifying their mean values and their variances. The output then consists of the mean response and the variance in the response. Thus the designer is given a much broader picture of the predicted performance than with simply a single response curve. These methods are applicable to a wide class of problems, provided that the scale of randomness is not too large and the probabilistic density functions possess decaying tails. By incorporating the computational techniques we have developed in the past 3 years for efficiency, the probabilistic finite element methods are capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. Sample results for an elastic-plastic ten-bar structure and an elastic-plastic plane continuum with a circular hole subject to cyclic loadings with the yield stress on the random field are given.
Probabilistic reasoning for assembly-based 3D modeling
Chaudhuri, Siddhartha
2011-01-01
Assembly-based modeling is a promising approach to broadening the accessibility of 3D modeling. In assembly-based modeling, new models are assembled from shape components extracted from a database. A key challenge in assembly-based modeling is the identification of relevant components to be presented to the user. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic reasoning approach to this problem. Given a repository of shapes, our approach learns a probabilistic graphical model that encodes semantic and geometric relationships among shape components. The probabilistic model is used to present components that are semantically and stylistically compatible with the 3D model that is being assembled. Our experiments indicate that the probabilistic model increases the relevance of presented components. © 2011 ACM.
Extended probabilistic system assessment calculations within the SKI project-90
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pereira, A.
1993-03-01
The probabilistic system assessment calculation reported in the SKI Project-90 final documents were restricted to the following nuclides: 14 C, 129 I, 135 Cs, 237 Np and 240 Pu. In this report we have extended those calculations to another five nuclides: 79 Se, 243 Am, 240 Pu, 93 Zr and 99 Tc. The execution of probabilistic assessment calculations integrated in the context of SKIs first safety analysis exercise of an hypothetic final repository for high-level nuclear waste in Sweden, was a learning experience of relevance for the conduction of probabilistic safety assessment in future exercises. Some major conclusions and viewpoints of future need related with probabilistic assessment were withdrawn from this work and are presented in our report
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis
Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.
2006-12-01
The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes
Growing hierarchical probabilistic self-organizing graphs.
López-Rubio, Ezequiel; Palomo, Esteban José
2011-07-01
Since the introduction of the growing hierarchical self-organizing map, much work has been done on self-organizing neural models with a dynamic structure. These models allow adjusting the layers of the model to the features of the input dataset. Here we propose a new self-organizing model which is based on a probabilistic mixture of multivariate Gaussian components. The learning rule is derived from the stochastic approximation framework, and a probabilistic criterion is used to control the growth of the model. Moreover, the model is able to adapt to the topology of each layer, so that a hierarchy of dynamic graphs is built. This overcomes the limitations of the self-organizing maps with a fixed topology, and gives rise to a faithful visualization method for high-dimensional data.
CBDS: Constraint-based diagnostic system for malfunction identification in the nuclear power plant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ha, J.
1992-01-01
Traditional rule-based diagnostic expert systems use the experience of experts in the form of rules that associate symptoms with underlying faults. A commonly recognized failing of such systems is their narrow range of expertise and their inability to recognize problems outside this range of expertise. A model base diagnostic system isolating malfunctioning components-CBDS, the Constraint based Diagnostic System-has been developed. Since the intended behavior of a device is more predictable than unintended behaviors (faults), a model based system using the intended behavior has a potential to diagnose unexpected malfunctions by considering faults as open-quotes anything other than the intended behavior.close quotes As a knowledge base, the CBDS generates and decomposes a constraint network based on the structure and behavior model, which are represented symbolically in algebraic equations. Behaviors of generic components are organized in a component model library. Once the library is available, actual domain knowledge can be represented by declaring component types and their connections. To capture various plant knowledge, the mixed model was developed which allow the use of different parameter types in one equation by defining various operators. The CBDS uses the general idea of model based diagnosis. It detects a discrepancy between observation and prediction using constraint propagation, which carriers and accumulates the assumptions when parameter values are deduced. When measured plant parameters are asserted into a constraint network and are propagated through the network, a discrepancy will be detected if there exists any malfunctioning component. The CBDS was tested in the Recirculation Flow Control System of a BWR, and has been shown to be able to diagnose unexpected events
A Novel Methodology to Estimate Metabolic Flux Distributions in Constraint-Based Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francesco Alessandro Massucci
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Quite generally, constraint-based metabolic flux analysis describes the space of viable flux configurations for a metabolic network as a high-dimensional polytope defined by the linear constraints that enforce the balancing of production and consumption fluxes for each chemical species in the system. In some cases, the complexity of the solution space can be reduced by performing an additional optimization, while in other cases, knowing the range of variability of fluxes over the polytope provides a sufficient characterization of the allowed configurations. There are cases, however, in which the thorough information encoded in the individual distributions of viable fluxes over the polytope is required. Obtaining such distributions is known to be a highly challenging computational task when the dimensionality of the polytope is sufficiently large, and the problem of developing cost-effective ad hoc algorithms has recently seen a major surge of interest. Here, we propose a method that allows us to perform the required computation heuristically in a time scaling linearly with the number of reactions in the network, overcoming some limitations of similar techniques employed in recent years. As a case study, we apply it to the analysis of the human red blood cell metabolic network, whose solution space can be sampled by different exact techniques, like Hit-and-Run Monte Carlo (scaling roughly like the third power of the system size. Remarkably accurate estimates for the true distributions of viable reaction fluxes are obtained, suggesting that, although further improvements are desirable, our method enhances our ability to analyze the space of allowed configurations for large biochemical reaction networks.
Some probabilistic aspects of fracture
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thomas, J.M.
1982-01-01
Some probabilistic aspects of fracture in structural and mechanical components are examined. The principles of fracture mechanics, material quality and inspection uncertainty are formulated into a conceptual and analytical framework for prediction of failure probability. The role of probabilistic fracture mechanics in a more global context of risk and optimization of decisions is illustrated. An example, where Monte Carlo simulation was used to implement a probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis, is discussed. (orig.)
Probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoertner, H.; Schuetz, B.
1982-09-01
For the purpose of assessing applicability and informativeness on risk-analysis methods in licencing procedures under atomic law, the choice of instruments for probabilistic analysis, the problems in and experience gained in their application, and the discussion of safety goals with respect to such instruments are of paramount significance. Naturally, such a complex field can only be dealt with step by step, making contribution relative to specific problems. The report on hand shows the essentials of a 'stocktaking' of systems relability studies in the licencing procedure under atomic law and of an American report (NUREG-0739) on 'Quantitative Safety Goals'. (orig.) [de
Probabilistic methods for physics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cirier, G
2013-01-01
We present an asymptotic method giving a probability of presence of the iterated spots of R d by a polynomial function f. We use the well-known Perron Frobenius operator (PF) that lets certain sets and measure invariant by f. Probabilistic solutions can exist for the deterministic iteration. If the theoretical result is already known, here we quantify these probabilities. This approach seems interesting to use for computing situations when the deterministic methods don't run. Among the examined applications, are asymptotic solutions of Lorenz, Navier-Stokes or Hamilton's equations. In this approach, linearity induces many difficult problems, all of whom we have not yet resolved.
Quantum probability for probabilists
Meyer, Paul-André
1993-01-01
In recent years, the classical theory of stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations has been extended to a non-commutative set-up to develop models for quantum noises. The author, a specialist of classical stochastic calculus and martingale theory, tries to provide anintroduction to this rapidly expanding field in a way which should be accessible to probabilists familiar with the Ito integral. It can also, on the other hand, provide a means of access to the methods of stochastic calculus for physicists familiar with Fock space analysis.
Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization
Voet, van der H.; Slob, W.
2007-01-01
A method is proposed for integrated probabilistic risk assessment where exposure assessment and hazard characterization are both included in a probabilistic way. The aim is to specify the probability that a random individual from a defined (sub)population will have an exposure high enough to cause a
Probabilistic Structural Analysis of SSME Turbopump Blades: Probabilistic Geometry Effects
Nagpal, V. K.
1985-01-01
A probabilistic study was initiated to evaluate the precisions of the geometric and material properties tolerances on the structural response of turbopump blades. To complete this study, a number of important probabilistic variables were identified which are conceived to affect the structural response of the blade. In addition, a methodology was developed to statistically quantify the influence of these probabilistic variables in an optimized way. The identified variables include random geometric and material properties perturbations, different loadings and a probabilistic combination of these loadings. Influences of these probabilistic variables are planned to be quantified by evaluating the blade structural response. Studies of the geometric perturbations were conducted for a flat plate geometry as well as for a space shuttle main engine blade geometry using a special purpose code which uses the finite element approach. Analyses indicate that the variances of the perturbations about given mean values have significant influence on the response.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yamaguchi, Akira; Nakamura, Susumu; Mihara, Yoshinori
2014-01-01
Lessons learned from Great East Japan earthquake and other new findings had been accumulated on the fragility evaluation of buildings and components. And also new analysis and evaluation method had been proposed with the advancement of recent analysis and evaluation technology. These were reflected in revision of the AESJ Standard for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Scope of the fragility evaluation were extended to all equipment on the site, severe accident management equipment including portable equipment and earthquake concomitant incident (such as tsunami) countermeasure equipment. This article described outlines of updating points of the fragility evaluation of the AESJ Standard for Seismic PRA; (1) requirements for seismic induced other risk evaluations such as fire, inundation and tsunami, (2) simulation technology based on recent findings such as three dimensional responses of buildings / structures and its effect on equipment, (3) requirements of the fragility evaluation for various failure mode of several equipment such as severe accident management equipment, fine failure mode of buildings / structures, failures of equipment related with earthquake concomitant incidents (embankment and seawall) and spent fuel pool, and (4) requirements for the fragility evaluation of aftershocks and soil deformation due to fault displacement. (T. Tanaka)
A General Framework for Probabilistic Characterizing Formulae
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sack, Joshua; Zhang, Lijun
2012-01-01
Recently, a general framework on characteristic formulae was proposed by Aceto et al. It offers a simple theory that allows one to easily obtain characteristic formulae of many non-probabilistic behavioral relations. Our paper studies their techniques in a probabilistic setting. We provide...... a general method for determining characteristic formulae of behavioral relations for probabilistic automata using fixed-point probability logics. We consider such behavioral relations as simulations and bisimulations, probabilistic bisimulations, probabilistic weak simulations, and probabilistic forward...
Probabilistic pathway construction.
Yousofshahi, Mona; Lee, Kyongbum; Hassoun, Soha
2011-07-01
Expression of novel synthesis pathways in host organisms amenable to genetic manipulations has emerged as an attractive metabolic engineering strategy to overproduce natural products, biofuels, biopolymers and other commercially useful metabolites. We present a pathway construction algorithm for identifying viable synthesis pathways compatible with balanced cell growth. Rather than exhaustive exploration, we investigate probabilistic selection of reactions to construct the pathways. Three different selection schemes are investigated for the selection of reactions: high metabolite connectivity, low connectivity and uniformly random. For all case studies, which involved a diverse set of target metabolites, the uniformly random selection scheme resulted in the highest average maximum yield. When compared to an exhaustive search enumerating all possible reaction routes, our probabilistic algorithm returned nearly identical distributions of yields, while requiring far less computing time (minutes vs. years). The pathways identified by our algorithm have previously been confirmed in the literature as viable, high-yield synthesis routes. Prospectively, our algorithm could facilitate the design of novel, non-native synthesis routes by efficiently exploring the diversity of biochemical transformations in nature. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Probabilistic risk assessment methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shinaishin, M.A.
1988-06-01
The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)
Probabilistic population aging
2017-01-01
We merge two methodologies, prospective measures of population aging and probabilistic population forecasts. We compare the speed of change and variability in forecasts of the old age dependency ratio and the prospective old age dependency ratio as well as the same comparison for the median age and the prospective median age. While conventional measures of population aging are computed on the basis of the number of years people have already lived, prospective measures are computed also taking account of the expected number of years they have left to live. Those remaining life expectancies change over time and differ from place to place. We compare the probabilistic distributions of the conventional and prospective measures using examples from China, Germany, Iran, and the United States. The changes over time and the variability of the prospective indicators are smaller than those that are observed in the conventional ones. A wide variety of new results emerge from the combination of methodologies. For example, for Germany, Iran, and the United States the likelihood that the prospective median age of the population in 2098 will be lower than it is today is close to 100 percent. PMID:28636675
Probabilistic cellular automata.
Agapie, Alexandru; Andreica, Anca; Giuclea, Marius
2014-09-01
Cellular automata are binary lattices used for modeling complex dynamical systems. The automaton evolves iteratively from one configuration to another, using some local transition rule based on the number of ones in the neighborhood of each cell. With respect to the number of cells allowed to change per iteration, we speak of either synchronous or asynchronous automata. If randomness is involved to some degree in the transition rule, we speak of probabilistic automata, otherwise they are called deterministic. With either type of cellular automaton we are dealing with, the main theoretical challenge stays the same: starting from an arbitrary initial configuration, predict (with highest accuracy) the end configuration. If the automaton is deterministic, the outcome simplifies to one of two configurations, all zeros or all ones. If the automaton is probabilistic, the whole process is modeled by a finite homogeneous Markov chain, and the outcome is the corresponding stationary distribution. Based on our previous results for the asynchronous case-connecting the probability of a configuration in the stationary distribution to its number of zero-one borders-the article offers both numerical and theoretical insight into the long-term behavior of synchronous cellular automata.
Probabilistic biological network alignment.
Todor, Andrei; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer
2013-01-01
Interactions between molecules are probabilistic events. An interaction may or may not happen with some probability, depending on a variety of factors such as the size, abundance, or proximity of the interacting molecules. In this paper, we consider the problem of aligning two biological networks. Unlike existing methods, we allow one of the two networks to contain probabilistic interactions. Allowing interaction probabilities makes the alignment more biologically relevant at the expense of explosive growth in the number of alternative topologies that may arise from different subsets of interactions that take place. We develop a novel method that efficiently and precisely characterizes this massive search space. We represent the topological similarity between pairs of aligned molecules (i.e., proteins) with the help of random variables and compute their expected values. We validate our method showing that, without sacrificing the running time performance, it can produce novel alignments. Our results also demonstrate that our method identifies biologically meaningful mappings under a comprehensive set of criteria used in the literature as well as the statistical coherence measure that we developed to analyze the statistical significance of the similarity of the functions of the aligned protein pairs.
Quantum probabilistic logic programming
Balu, Radhakrishnan
2015-05-01
We describe a quantum mechanics based logic programming language that supports Horn clauses, random variables, and covariance matrices to express and solve problems in probabilistic logic. The Horn clauses of the language wrap random variables, including infinite valued, to express probability distributions and statistical correlations, a powerful feature to capture relationship between distributions that are not independent. The expressive power of the language is based on a mechanism to implement statistical ensembles and to solve the underlying SAT instances using quantum mechanical machinery. We exploit the fact that classical random variables have quantum decompositions to build the Horn clauses. We establish the semantics of the language in a rigorous fashion by considering an existing probabilistic logic language called PRISM with classical probability measures defined on the Herbrand base and extending it to the quantum context. In the classical case H-interpretations form the sample space and probability measures defined on them lead to consistent definition of probabilities for well formed formulae. In the quantum counterpart, we define probability amplitudes on Hinterpretations facilitating the model generations and verifications via quantum mechanical superpositions and entanglements. We cast the well formed formulae of the language as quantum mechanical observables thus providing an elegant interpretation for their probabilities. We discuss several examples to combine statistical ensembles and predicates of first order logic to reason with situations involving uncertainty.
Probabilistic risk assessment methodology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shinaishin, M A
1988-06-15
The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)
Topics in Probabilistic Judgment Aggregation
Wang, Guanchun
2011-01-01
This dissertation is a compilation of several studies that are united by their relevance to probabilistic judgment aggregation. In the face of complex and uncertain events, panels of judges are frequently consulted to provide probabilistic forecasts, and aggregation of such estimates in groups often yield better results than could have been made…
Probabilistic studies of accident sequences
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Villemeur, A.; Berger, J.P.
1986-01-01
For several years, Electricite de France has carried out probabilistic assessment of accident sequences for nuclear power plants. In the framework of this program many methods were developed. As the interest in these studies was increasing and as adapted methods were developed, Electricite de France has undertaken a probabilistic safety assessment of a nuclear power plant [fr
Compression of Probabilistic XML documents
Veldman, Irma
2009-01-01
Probabilistic XML (PXML) files resulting from data integration can become extremely large, which is undesired. For XML there are several techniques available to compress the document and since probabilistic XML is in fact (a special form of) XML, it might benefit from these methods even more. In
Probabilistic Structural Analysis Theory Development
Burnside, O. H.
1985-01-01
The objective of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project is to develop analysis techniques and computer programs for predicting the probabilistic response of critical structural components for current and future space propulsion systems. This technology will play a central role in establishing system performance and durability. The first year's technical activity is concentrating on probabilistic finite element formulation strategy and code development. Work is also in progress to survey critical materials and space shuttle mian engine components. The probabilistic finite element computer program NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) is being developed. The final probabilistic code will have, in the general case, the capability of performing nonlinear dynamic of stochastic structures. It is the goal of the approximate methods effort to increase problem solving efficiency relative to finite element methods by using energy methods to generate trial solutions which satisfy the structural boundary conditions. These approximate methods will be less computer intensive relative to the finite element approach.
Probabilistic analysis of fires in nuclear plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Unione, A.; Teichmann, T.
1985-01-01
The aim of this paper is to describe a multilevel (i.e., staged) probabilistic analysis of fire risks in nuclear plants (as part of a general PRA) which maximizes the benefits of the FRA (fire risk assessment) in a cost effective way. The approach uses several stages of screening, physical modeling of clearly dominant risk contributors, searches for direct (e.g., equipment dependences) and secondary (e.g., fire induced internal flooding) interactions, and relies on lessons learned and available data from and surrogate FRAs. The general methodology is outlined. 6 figs., 10 tabs
Identification of probabilistic approaches and map-based navigation ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
B Madhevan
2018-02-07
Feb 7, 2018 ... consists of three processes: map learning (ML), localization and PP [73–76]. (i) ML ...... [83] Thrun S 2001 A probabilistic online mapping algorithm for teams of .... for target tracking using fuzzy logic controller in game theoretic ...
Probabilistic escalation modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Korneliussen, G.; Eknes, M.L.; Haugen, K.; Selmer-Olsen, S. [Det Norske Veritas, Oslo (Norway)
1997-12-31
This paper describes how structural reliability methods may successfully be applied within quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as an alternative to traditional event tree analysis. The emphasis is on fire escalation in hydrocarbon production and processing facilities. This choice was made due to potential improvements over current QRA practice associated with both the probabilistic approach and more detailed modelling of the dynamics of escalating events. The physical phenomena important for the events of interest are explicitly modelled as functions of time. Uncertainties are represented through probability distributions. The uncertainty modelling enables the analysis to be simple when possible and detailed when necessary. The methodology features several advantages compared with traditional risk calculations based on event trees. (Author)
Probabilistic fracture finite elements
Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Lua, Y. J.
1991-05-01
The Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM) is a promising method for estimating the fatigue life and inspection cycles for mechanical and structural components. The Probability Finite Element Method (PFEM), which is based on second moment analysis, has proved to be a promising, practical approach to handle problems with uncertainties. As the PFEM provides a powerful computational tool to determine first and second moment of random parameters, the second moment reliability method can be easily combined with PFEM to obtain measures of the reliability of the structural system. The method is also being applied to fatigue crack growth. Uncertainties in the material properties of advanced materials such as polycrystalline alloys, ceramics, and composites are commonly observed from experimental tests. This is mainly attributed to intrinsic microcracks, which are randomly distributed as a result of the applied load and the residual stress.
Probabilistic retinal vessel segmentation
Wu, Chang-Hua; Agam, Gady
2007-03-01
Optic fundus assessment is widely used for diagnosing vascular and non-vascular pathology. Inspection of the retinal vasculature may reveal hypertension, diabetes, arteriosclerosis, cardiovascular disease and stroke. Due to various imaging conditions retinal images may be degraded. Consequently, the enhancement of such images and vessels in them is an important task with direct clinical applications. We propose a novel technique for vessel enhancement in retinal images that is capable of enhancing vessel junctions in addition to linear vessel segments. This is an extension of vessel filters we have previously developed for vessel enhancement in thoracic CT scans. The proposed approach is based on probabilistic models which can discern vessels and junctions. Evaluation shows the proposed filter is better than several known techniques and is comparable to the state of the art when evaluated on a standard dataset. A ridge-based vessel tracking process is applied on the enhanced image to demonstrate the effectiveness of the enhancement filter.
Probabilistic sensory recoding.
Jazayeri, Mehrdad
2008-08-01
A hallmark of higher brain functions is the ability to contemplate the world rather than to respond reflexively to it. To do so, the nervous system makes use of a modular architecture in which sensory representations are dissociated from areas that control actions. This flexibility however necessitates a recoding scheme that would put sensory information to use in the control of behavior. Sensory recoding faces two important challenges. First, recoding must take into account the inherent variability of sensory responses. Second, it must be flexible enough to satisfy the requirements of different perceptual goals. Recent progress in theory, psychophysics, and neurophysiology indicate that cortical circuitry might meet these challenges by evaluating sensory signals probabilistically.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kuzmina, Irina
2014-01-01
Final remarks: • COMPASS-M project is a very fruitful study. 1. State-of-the-art competence for PSA technique in Malaysia (applicable to nuclear installations, incl. RR and NPP). 2. PSA model and report for the operating research reactor in Malaysia. → Risk estimate of core damage and ranking contributors to the risk; → Basis for further safety improvement of RR as appropriate. 3. Input for IAEA’s publications on PSA for research reactors. • The results will be available to interested Member States (security considerations be addressed); → Completion in mid-2014, paper to be published in PSAM-12; ► Managerial support is instrumental for success of learning-by-doing projects
Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation: An Efficient Statistical Approach
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wan, Can; Lin, Jin; Song, Yonghua
2017-01-01
This letter proposes a novel efficient probabilistic forecasting approach to accurately quantify the variability and uncertainty of the power production from photovoltaic (PV) systems. Distinguished from most existing models, a linear programming based prediction interval construction model for P...... power generation is proposed based on extreme learning machine and quantile regression, featuring high reliability and computational efficiency. The proposed approach is validated through the numerical studies on PV data from Denmark.......This letter proposes a novel efficient probabilistic forecasting approach to accurately quantify the variability and uncertainty of the power production from photovoltaic (PV) systems. Distinguished from most existing models, a linear programming based prediction interval construction model for PV...
Dynamic shaping of dopamine signals during probabilistic Pavlovian conditioning.
Hart, Andrew S; Clark, Jeremy J; Phillips, Paul E M
2015-01-01
Cue- and reward-evoked phasic dopamine activity during Pavlovian and operant conditioning paradigms is well correlated with reward-prediction errors from formal reinforcement learning models, which feature teaching signals in the form of discrepancies between actual and expected reward outcomes. Additionally, in learning tasks where conditioned cues probabilistically predict rewards, dopamine neurons show sustained cue-evoked responses that are correlated with the variance of reward and are maximal to cues predicting rewards with a probability of 0.5. Therefore, it has been suggested that sustained dopamine activity after cue presentation encodes the uncertainty of impending reward delivery. In the current study we examined the acquisition and maintenance of these neural correlates using fast-scan cyclic voltammetry in rats implanted with carbon fiber electrodes in the nucleus accumbens core during probabilistic Pavlovian conditioning. The advantage of this technique is that we can sample from the same animal and recording location throughout learning with single trial resolution. We report that dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens core contains correlates of both expected value and variance. A quantitative analysis of these signals throughout learning, and during the ongoing updating process after learning in probabilistic conditions, demonstrates that these correlates are dynamically encoded during these phases. Peak CS-evoked responses are correlated with expected value and predominate during early learning while a variance-correlated sustained CS signal develops during the post-asymptotic updating phase. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Probabilistic Decision Graphs - Combining Verification and AI Techniques for Probabilistic Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred
2004-01-01
We adopt probabilistic decision graphs developed in the field of automated verification as a tool for probabilistic model representation and inference. We show that probabilistic inference has linear time complexity in the size of the probabilistic decision graph, that the smallest probabilistic ...
Probabilistic Space Weather Forecasting: a Bayesian Perspective
Camporeale, E.; Chandorkar, M.; Borovsky, J.; Care', A.
2017-12-01
Most of the Space Weather forecasts, both at operational and research level, are not probabilistic in nature. Unfortunately, a prediction that does not provide a confidence level is not very useful in a decision-making scenario. Nowadays, forecast models range from purely data-driven, machine learning algorithms, to physics-based approximation of first-principle equations (and everything that sits in between). Uncertainties pervade all such models, at every level: from the raw data to finite-precision implementation of numerical methods. The most rigorous way of quantifying the propagation of uncertainties is by embracing a Bayesian probabilistic approach. One of the simplest and most robust machine learning technique in the Bayesian framework is Gaussian Process regression and classification. Here, we present the application of Gaussian Processes to the problems of the DST geomagnetic index forecast, the solar wind type classification, and the estimation of diffusion parameters in radiation belt modeling. In each of these very diverse problems, the GP approach rigorously provide forecasts in the form of predictive distributions. In turn, these distributions can be used as input for ensemble simulations in order to quantify the amplification of uncertainties. We show that we have achieved excellent results in all of the standard metrics to evaluate our models, with very modest computational cost.
Probabilistic broadcasting of mixed states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Lvjun; Li Lvzhou; Wu Lihua; Zou Xiangfu; Qiu Daowen
2009-01-01
It is well known that the non-broadcasting theorem proved by Barnum et al is a fundamental principle of quantum communication. As we are aware, optimal broadcasting (OB) is the only method to broadcast noncommuting mixed states approximately. In this paper, motivated by the probabilistic cloning of quantum states proposed by Duan and Guo, we propose a new way for broadcasting noncommuting mixed states-probabilistic broadcasting (PB), and we present a sufficient condition for PB of mixed states. To a certain extent, we generalize the probabilistic cloning theorem from pure states to mixed states, and in particular, we generalize the non-broadcasting theorem, since the case that commuting mixed states can be exactly broadcast can be thought of as a special instance of PB where the success ratio is 1. Moreover, we discuss probabilistic local broadcasting (PLB) of separable bipartite states
Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.
Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J
2017-10-01
The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.
14th International Probabilistic Workshop
Taerwe, Luc; Proske, Dirk
2017-01-01
This book presents the proceedings of the 14th International Probabilistic Workshop that was held in Ghent, Belgium in December 2016. Probabilistic methods are currently of crucial importance for research and developments in the field of engineering, which face challenges presented by new materials and technologies and rapidly changing societal needs and values. Contemporary needs related to, for example, performance-based design, service-life design, life-cycle analysis, product optimization, assessment of existing structures and structural robustness give rise to new developments as well as accurate and practically applicable probabilistic and statistical engineering methods to support these developments. These proceedings are a valuable resource for anyone interested in contemporary developments in the field of probabilistic engineering applications.
Cumulative Dominance and Probabilistic Sophistication
Wakker, P.P.; Sarin, R.H.
2000-01-01
Machina & Schmeidler (Econometrica, 60, 1992) gave preference conditions for probabilistic sophistication, i.e. decision making where uncertainty can be expressed in terms of (subjective) probabilities without commitment to expected utility maximization. This note shows that simpler and more general
Probabilistic simulation of fermion paths
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhirov, O.V.
1989-01-01
Permutation symmetry of fermion path integral allows (while spin degrees of freedom are ignored) to use in its simulation any probabilistic algorithm, like Metropolis one, heat bath, etc. 6 refs., 2 tabs
Probabilistic modeling of timber structures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro
2007-01-01
The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) [Joint Committee of Structural Safety. Probabilistic Model Code, Internet...... Publication: www.jcss.ethz.ch; 2001] and of the COST action E24 ‘Reliability of Timber Structures' [COST Action E 24, Reliability of timber structures. Several meetings and Publications, Internet Publication: http://www.km.fgg.uni-lj.si/coste24/coste24.htm; 2005]. The present proposal is based on discussions...... and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for timber components. The recommended probabilistic model for these basic properties...
CAD Parts-Based Assembly Modeling by Probabilistic Reasoning
Zhang, Kai-Ke; Hu, Kai-Mo; Yin, Li-Cheng; Yan, Dongming; Wang, Bin
2016-01-01
Nowadays, increasing amount of parts and sub-assemblies are publicly available, which can be used directly for product development instead of creating from scratch. In this paper, we propose an interactive design framework for efficient and smart assembly modeling, in order to improve the design efficiency. Our approach is based on a probabilistic reasoning. Given a collection of industrial assemblies, we learn a probabilistic graphical model from the relationships between the parts of assemblies. Then in the modeling stage, this probabilistic model is used to suggest the most likely used parts compatible with the current assembly. Finally, the parts are assembled under certain geometric constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through a variety of assembly models produced by our prototype system. © 2015 IEEE.
CAD Parts-Based Assembly Modeling by Probabilistic Reasoning
Zhang, Kai-Ke
2016-04-11
Nowadays, increasing amount of parts and sub-assemblies are publicly available, which can be used directly for product development instead of creating from scratch. In this paper, we propose an interactive design framework for efficient and smart assembly modeling, in order to improve the design efficiency. Our approach is based on a probabilistic reasoning. Given a collection of industrial assemblies, we learn a probabilistic graphical model from the relationships between the parts of assemblies. Then in the modeling stage, this probabilistic model is used to suggest the most likely used parts compatible with the current assembly. Finally, the parts are assembled under certain geometric constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through a variety of assembly models produced by our prototype system. © 2015 IEEE.
De la Sen, M.
2015-01-01
In the framework of complete probabilistic metric spaces and, in particular, in probabilistic Menger spaces, this paper investigates some relevant properties of convergence of sequences to probabilistic α-fuzzy fixed points under some types of probabilistic contractive conditions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Togo, Y.; Sato, K.
1981-01-01
The probabilistic approach has long seemed to be one of the most comprehensive methods for evaluating the safety of nuclear plants. So far, most of the guidelines and criteria for licensing are based on the deterministic concept. However, there have been a few examples to which the probabilistic approach was directly applied, such as the evaluation of aircraft crashes and turbine missiles. One may find other examples of such applications. However, a much more important role is now to be played by this concept, in implementing the 52 recommendations from the lessons learned from the TMI accident. To develop the probabilistic risk assessment methodology most relevant to Japanese situations, a five-year programme plan has been adopted and is to be conducted by the Japan Atomic Research Institute from fiscal 1980. Various problems have been identified and are to be solved through this programme plan. The current status of developments is described together with activities outside the government programme. (author)
A probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input model construction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wan, Jiang; Zabaras, Nicholas
2014-01-01
Model reduction techniques have been widely used in modeling of high-dimensional stochastic input in uncertainty quantification tasks. However, the probabilistic modeling of random variables projected into reduced-order spaces presents a number of computational challenges. Due to the curse of dimensionality, the underlying dependence relationships between these random variables are difficult to capture. In this work, a probabilistic graphical model based approach is employed to learn the dependence by running a number of conditional independence tests using observation data. Thus a probabilistic model of the joint PDF is obtained and the PDF is factorized into a set of conditional distributions based on the dependence structure of the variables. The estimation of the joint PDF from data is then transformed to estimating conditional distributions under reduced dimensions. To improve the computational efficiency, a polynomial chaos expansion is further applied to represent the random field in terms of a set of standard random variables. This technique is combined with both linear and nonlinear model reduction methods. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input models. - Highlights: • Data-driven stochastic input models without the assumption of independence of the reduced random variables. • The problem is transformed to a Bayesian network structure learning problem. • Examples are given in flows in random media
Probabilistic dual heuristic programming-based adaptive critic
Herzallah, Randa
2010-02-01
Adaptive critic (AC) methods have common roots as generalisations of dynamic programming for neural reinforcement learning approaches. Since they approximate the dynamic programming solutions, they are potentially suitable for learning in noisy, non-linear and non-stationary environments. In this study, a novel probabilistic dual heuristic programming (DHP)-based AC controller is proposed. Distinct to current approaches, the proposed probabilistic (DHP) AC method takes uncertainties of forward model and inverse controller into consideration. Therefore, it is suitable for deterministic and stochastic control problems characterised by functional uncertainty. Theoretical development of the proposed method is validated by analytically evaluating the correct value of the cost function which satisfies the Bellman equation in a linear quadratic control problem. The target value of the probabilistic critic network is then calculated and shown to be equal to the analytically derived correct value. Full derivation of the Riccati solution for this non-standard stochastic linear quadratic control problem is also provided. Moreover, the performance of the proposed probabilistic controller is demonstrated on linear and non-linear control examples.
Probabilistic numerical discrimination in mice.
Berkay, Dilara; Çavdaroğlu, Bilgehan; Balcı, Fuat
2016-03-01
Previous studies showed that both human and non-human animals can discriminate between different quantities (i.e., time intervals, numerosities) with a limited level of precision due to their endogenous/representational uncertainty. In addition, other studies have shown that subjects can modulate their temporal categorization responses adaptively by incorporating information gathered regarding probabilistic contingencies into their time-based decisions. Despite the psychophysical similarities between the interval timing and nonverbal counting functions, the sensitivity of count-based decisions to probabilistic information remains an unanswered question. In the current study, we investigated whether exogenous probabilistic information can be integrated into numerosity-based judgments by mice. In the task employed in this study, reward was presented either after few (i.e., 10) or many (i.e., 20) lever presses, the last of which had to be emitted on the lever associated with the corresponding trial type. In order to investigate the effect of probabilistic information on performance in this task, we manipulated the relative frequency of different trial types across different experimental conditions. We evaluated the behavioral performance of the animals under models that differed in terms of their assumptions regarding the cost of responding (e.g., logarithmically increasing vs. no response cost). Our results showed for the first time that mice could adaptively modulate their count-based decisions based on the experienced probabilistic contingencies in directions predicted by optimality.
Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework
Strack, William C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.
2010-01-01
PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.
Probabilistic methods used in NUSS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fischer, J.; Giuliani, P.
1985-01-01
Probabilistic considerations are used implicitly or explicitly in all technical areas. In the NUSS codes and guides the two areas of design and siting are those where more use is made of these concepts. A brief review of the relevant documents in these two areas is made in this paper. It covers the documents where either probabilistic considerations are implied or where probabilistic approaches are recommended in the evaluation of situations and of events. In the siting guides the review mainly covers the area of seismic hydrological and external man-made events analysis, as well as some aspects of meteorological extreme events analysis. Probabilistic methods are recommended in the design guides but they are not made a requirement. There are several reasons for this, mainly lack of reliable data and the absence of quantitative safety limits or goals against which to judge the design analysis. As far as practical, engineering judgement should be backed up by quantitative probabilistic analysis. Examples are given and the concept of design basis as used in NUSS design guides is explained. (author)
Implications of probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.
1987-01-01
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Farshid Hassani Bijarbooneh
2009-10-01
Full Text Available Using constraint-based local search, we effectively model and efficiently solve the problem of balancing the traffic demands on portions of the European airspace while ensuring that their capacity constraints are satisfied. The traffic demand of a portion of airspace is the hourly number of flights planned to enter it, and its capacity is the upper bound on this number under which air-traffic controllers can work. Currently, the only form of demand-capacity balancing we allow is ground holding, that is the changing of the take-off times of not yet airborne flights. Experiments with projected European flight plans of the year 2030 show that already this first form of demand-capacity balancing is feasible without incurring too much total delay and that it can lead to a significantly better demand-capacity balance.
Probabilistic coding of quantum states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grudka, Andrzej; Wojcik, Antoni; Czechlewski, Mikolaj
2006-01-01
We discuss the properties of probabilistic coding of two qubits to one qutrit and generalize the scheme to higher dimensions. We show that the protocol preserves the entanglement between the qubits to be encoded and the environment and can also be applied to mixed states. We present a protocol that enables encoding of n qudits to one qudit of dimension smaller than the Hilbert space of the original system and then allows probabilistic but error-free decoding of any subset of k qudits. We give a formula for the probability of successful decoding
Probabilistic methods in combinatorial analysis
Sachkov, Vladimir N
2014-01-01
This 1997 work explores the role of probabilistic methods for solving combinatorial problems. These methods not only provide the means of efficiently using such notions as characteristic and generating functions, the moment method and so on but also let us use the powerful technique of limit theorems. The basic objects under investigation are nonnegative matrices, partitions and mappings of finite sets, with special emphasis on permutations and graphs, and equivalence classes specified on sequences of finite length consisting of elements of partially ordered sets; these specify the probabilist
Probabilistic reasoning in data analysis.
Sirovich, Lawrence
2011-09-20
This Teaching Resource provides lecture notes, slides, and a student assignment for a lecture on probabilistic reasoning in the analysis of biological data. General probabilistic frameworks are introduced, and a number of standard probability distributions are described using simple intuitive ideas. Particular attention is focused on random arrivals that are independent of prior history (Markovian events), with an emphasis on waiting times, Poisson processes, and Poisson probability distributions. The use of these various probability distributions is applied to biomedical problems, including several classic experimental studies.
Probabilistic Modeling of Timber Structures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Köhler, J.D.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro
2005-01-01
The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) and of the COST action E24 'Reliability of Timber Structures'. The present...... proposal is based on discussions and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for components and connections. The recommended...
Convex sets in probabilistic normed spaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aghajani, Asadollah; Nourouzi, Kourosh
2008-01-01
In this paper we obtain some results on convexity in a probabilistic normed space. We also investigate the concept of CSN-closedness and CSN-compactness in a probabilistic normed space and generalize the corresponding results of normed spaces
Reasoning with probabilistic and deterministic graphical models exact algorithms
Dechter, Rina
2013-01-01
Graphical models (e.g., Bayesian and constraint networks, influence diagrams, and Markov decision processes) have become a central paradigm for knowledge representation and reasoning in both artificial intelligence and computer science in general. These models are used to perform many reasoning tasks, such as scheduling, planning and learning, diagnosis and prediction, design, hardware and software verification, and bioinformatics. These problems can be stated as the formal tasks of constraint satisfaction and satisfiability, combinatorial optimization, and probabilistic inference. It is well
Confluence Reduction for Probabilistic Systems (extended version)
Timmer, Mark; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis
2010-01-01
This paper presents a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We prove that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To support the
Probabilistic Role Models and the Guarded Fragment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred
2004-01-01
We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....
Probabilistic role models and the guarded fragment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred
2006-01-01
We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....
Probabilistic Approaches to Video Retrieval
Ianeva, Tzvetanka; Boldareva, L.; Westerveld, T.H.W.; Cornacchia, Roberto; Hiemstra, Djoerd; de Vries, A.P.
Our experiments for TRECVID 2004 further investigate the applicability of the so-called “Generative Probabilistic Models to video retrieval��?. TRECVID 2003 results demonstrated that mixture models computed from video shot sequences improve the precision of “query by examples��? results when
Probabilistic safety analysis procedures guide
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; Buslik, A.J.
1984-01-01
A procedures guide for the performance of probabilistic safety assessment has been prepared for interim use in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission programs. The probabilistic safety assessment studies performed are intended to produce probabilistic predictive models that can be used and extended by the utilities and by NRC to sharpen the focus of inquiries into a range of tissues affecting reactor safety. This guide addresses the determination of the probability (per year) of core damage resulting from accident initiators internal to the plant and from loss of offsite electric power. The scope includes analyses of problem-solving (cognitive) human errors, a determination of importance of the various core damage accident sequences, and an explicit treatment and display of uncertainties for the key accident sequences. Ultimately, the guide will be augmented to include the plant-specific analysis of in-plant processes (i.e., containment performance) and the risk associated with external accident initiators, as consensus is developed regarding suitable methodologies in these areas. This guide provides the structure of a probabilistic safety study to be performed, and indicates what products of the study are essential for regulatory decision making. Methodology is treated in the guide only to the extent necessary to indicate the range of methods which is acceptable; ample reference is given to alternative methodologies which may be utilized in the performance of the study
Sound Probabilistic #SAT with Projection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vladimir Klebanov
2016-10-01
Full Text Available We present an improved method for a sound probabilistic estimation of the model count of a boolean formula under projection. The problem solved can be used to encode a variety of quantitative program analyses, such as concerning security of resource consumption. We implement the technique and discuss its application to quantifying information flow in programs.
Probabilistic uniformities of uniform spaces
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rodriguez Lopez, J.; Romaguera, S.; Sanchis, M.
2017-07-01
The theory of metric spaces in the fuzzy context has shown to be an interesting area of study not only from a theoretical point of view but also for its applications. Nevertheless, it is usual to consider these spaces as classical topological or uniform spaces and there are not too many results about constructing fuzzy topological structures starting from a fuzzy metric. Maybe, H/{sup o}hle was the first to show how to construct a probabilistic uniformity and a Lowen uniformity from a probabilistic pseudometric /cite{Hohle78,Hohle82a}. His method can be directly translated to the context of fuzzy metrics and allows to characterize the categories of probabilistic uniform spaces or Lowen uniform spaces by means of certain families of fuzzy pseudometrics /cite{RL}. On the other hand, other different fuzzy uniformities can be constructed in a fuzzy metric space: a Hutton $[0,1]$-quasi-uniformity /cite{GGPV06}; a fuzzifiying uniformity /cite{YueShi10}, etc. The paper /cite{GGRLRo} gives a study of several methods of endowing a fuzzy pseudometric space with a probabilistic uniformity and a Hutton $[0,1]$-quasi-uniformity. In 2010, J. Guti/'errez Garc/'{/i}a, S. Romaguera and M. Sanchis /cite{GGRoSanchis10} proved that the category of uniform spaces is isomorphic to a category formed by sets endowed with a fuzzy uniform structure, i. e. a family of fuzzy pseudometrics satisfying certain conditions. We will show here that, by means of this isomorphism, we can obtain several methods to endow a uniform space with a probabilistic uniformity. Furthermore, these constructions allow to obtain a factorization of some functors introduced in /cite{GGRoSanchis10}. (Author)
a Probabilistic Embedding Clustering Method for Urban Structure Detection
Lin, X.; Li, H.; Zhang, Y.; Gao, L.; Zhao, L.; Deng, M.
2017-09-01
Urban structure detection is a basic task in urban geography. Clustering is a core technology to detect the patterns of urban spatial structure, urban functional region, and so on. In big data era, diverse urban sensing datasets recording information like human behaviour and human social activity, suffer from complexity in high dimension and high noise. And unfortunately, the state-of-the-art clustering methods does not handle the problem with high dimension and high noise issues concurrently. In this paper, a probabilistic embedding clustering method is proposed. Firstly, we come up with a Probabilistic Embedding Model (PEM) to find latent features from high dimensional urban sensing data by "learning" via probabilistic model. By latent features, we could catch essential features hidden in high dimensional data known as patterns; with the probabilistic model, we can also reduce uncertainty caused by high noise. Secondly, through tuning the parameters, our model could discover two kinds of urban structure, the homophily and structural equivalence, which means communities with intensive interaction or in the same roles in urban structure. We evaluated the performance of our model by conducting experiments on real-world data and experiments with real data in Shanghai (China) proved that our method could discover two kinds of urban structure, the homophily and structural equivalence, which means clustering community with intensive interaction or under the same roles in urban space.
A probabilistic Hu-Washizu variational principle
Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Besterfield, G. H.
1987-01-01
A Probabilistic Hu-Washizu Variational Principle (PHWVP) for the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) is presented. This formulation is developed for both linear and nonlinear elasticity. The PHWVP allows incorporation of the probabilistic distributions for the constitutive law, compatibility condition, equilibrium, domain and boundary conditions into the PFEM. Thus, a complete probabilistic analysis can be performed where all aspects of the problem are treated as random variables and/or fields. The Hu-Washizu variational formulation is available in many conventional finite element codes thereby enabling the straightforward inclusion of the probabilistic features into present codes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Resendis-Antonio Osbaldo
2011-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Bacterial nitrogen fixation is the biological process by which atmospheric nitrogen is uptaken by bacteroids located in plant root nodules and converted into ammonium through the enzymatic activity of nitrogenase. In practice, this biological process serves as a natural form of fertilization and its optimization has significant implications in sustainable agricultural programs. Currently, the advent of high-throughput technology supplies with valuable data that contribute to understanding the metabolic activity during bacterial nitrogen fixation. This undertaking is not trivial, and the development of computational methods useful in accomplishing an integrative, descriptive and predictive framework is a crucial issue to decoding the principles that regulated the metabolic activity of this biological process. Results In this work we present a systems biology description of the metabolic activity in bacterial nitrogen fixation. This was accomplished by an integrative analysis involving high-throughput data and constraint-based modeling to characterize the metabolic activity in Rhizobium etli bacteroids located at the root nodules of Phaseolus vulgaris (bean plant. Proteome and transcriptome technologies led us to identify 415 proteins and 689 up-regulated genes that orchestrate this biological process. Taking into account these data, we: 1 extended the metabolic reconstruction reported for R. etli; 2 simulated the metabolic activity during symbiotic nitrogen fixation; and 3 evaluated the in silico results in terms of bacteria phenotype. Notably, constraint-based modeling simulated nitrogen fixation activity in such a way that 76.83% of the enzymes and 69.48% of the genes were experimentally justified. Finally, to further assess the predictive scope of the computational model, gene deletion analysis was carried out on nine metabolic enzymes. Our model concluded that an altered metabolic activity on these enzymes induced
Valid Probabilistic Predictions for Ginseng with Venn Machines Using Electronic Nose
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
You Wang
2016-07-01
Full Text Available In the application of electronic noses (E-noses, probabilistic prediction is a good way to estimate how confident we are about our prediction. In this work, a homemade E-nose system embedded with 16 metal-oxide semi-conductive gas sensors was used to discriminate nine kinds of ginsengs of different species or production places. A flexible machine learning framework, Venn machine (VM was introduced to make probabilistic predictions for each prediction. Three Venn predictors were developed based on three classical probabilistic prediction methods (Platt’s method, Softmax regression and Naive Bayes. Three Venn predictors and three classical probabilistic prediction methods were compared in aspect of classification rate and especially the validity of estimated probability. A best classification rate of 88.57% was achieved with Platt’s method in offline mode, and the classification rate of VM-SVM (Venn machine based on Support Vector Machine was 86.35%, just 2.22% lower. The validity of Venn predictors performed better than that of corresponding classical probabilistic prediction methods. The validity of VM-SVM was superior to the other methods. The results demonstrated that Venn machine is a flexible tool to make precise and valid probabilistic prediction in the application of E-nose, and VM-SVM achieved the best performance for the probabilistic prediction of ginseng samples.
Shi, Shendong; Yang, Linghui; Lin, Jiarui; Ren, Yongjie; Guo, Siyang; Zhu, Jigui
2018-04-01
In this paper we present a novel omnidirectional angle constraint based method for dynamic 6-DOF (six-degree-of-freedom) measurement. A photoelectric scanning measurement network is employed whose photoelectric receivers are fixed on the measured target. They are in a loop distribution and receive signals from rotating transmitters. Each receiver indicates an angle constraint direction. Therefore, omnidirectional angle constraints can be constructed in each rotation cycle. By solving the constrained optimization problem, 6-DOF information can be obtained, which is independent of traditional rigid coordinate system transformation. For the dynamic error caused by the measurement principle, we present an interpolation method for error reduction. Accuracy testing is performed in an 8 × 8 m measurement area with four transmitters. The experimental results show that the dynamic orientation RMSEs (root-mean-square errors) are reduced from 0.077° to 0.044°, 0.040° to 0.030° and 0.032° to 0.015° in the X, Y, and Z axes, respectively. The dynamic position RMSE is reduced from 0.65 mm to 0.24 mm. This method is applied during the final approach phase in the rendezvous and docking simulation. Experiments under different conditions are performed in a 40 × 30 m area, and the method is verified to be effective.
Probabilistic costing of transmission services
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wijayatunga, P.D.C.
1992-01-01
Costing of transmission services of electrical utilities is required for transactions involving the transport of energy over a power network. The calculation of these costs based on Short Run Marginal Costing (SRMC) is preferred over other methods proposed in the literature due to its economic efficiency. In the research work discussed here, the concept of probabilistic costing of use-of-system based on SRMC which emerges as a consequence of the uncertainties in a power system is introduced using two different approaches. The first approach, based on the Monte Carlo method, generates a large number of possible system states by simulating random variables in the system using pseudo random number generators. A second approach to probabilistic use-of-system costing is proposed based on numerical convolution and multi-area representation of the transmission network. (UK)
Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Toft, H.S.
2010-01-01
Probabilistic design of wind turbines requires definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, foundation; identification of important failure modes; careful stochastic modeling of the uncertain parameters; recommendations for target reliability....... It is described how uncertainties in wind turbine design related to computational models, statistical data from test specimens, results from a few full-scale tests and from prototype wind turbines can be accounted for using the Maximum Likelihood Method and a Bayesian approach. Assessment of the optimal...... reliability level by cost-benefit optimization is illustrated by an offshore wind turbine example. Uncertainty modeling is illustrated by an example where physical, statistical and model uncertainties are estimated....
Advances in probabilistic risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hardung von Hardung, H.
1982-01-01
Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de
Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.
1980-08-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed
Probabilistic methods for rotordynamics analysis
Wu, Y.-T.; Torng, T. Y.; Millwater, H. R.; Fossum, A. F.; Rheinfurth, M. H.
1991-01-01
This paper summarizes the development of the methods and a computer program to compute the probability of instability of dynamic systems that can be represented by a system of second-order ordinary linear differential equations. Two instability criteria based upon the eigenvalues or Routh-Hurwitz test functions are investigated. Computational methods based on a fast probability integration concept and an efficient adaptive importance sampling method are proposed to perform efficient probabilistic analysis. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the methods.
Probabilistic analysis and related topics
Bharucha-Reid, A T
1983-01-01
Probabilistic Analysis and Related Topics, Volume 3 focuses on the continuity, integrability, and differentiability of random functions, including operator theory, measure theory, and functional and numerical analysis. The selection first offers information on the qualitative theory of stochastic systems and Langevin equations with multiplicative noise. Discussions focus on phase-space evolution via direct integration, phase-space evolution, linear and nonlinear systems, linearization, and generalizations. The text then ponders on the stability theory of stochastic difference systems and Marko
Probabilistic analysis and related topics
Bharucha-Reid, A T
1979-01-01
Probabilistic Analysis and Related Topics, Volume 2 focuses on the integrability, continuity, and differentiability of random functions, as well as functional analysis, measure theory, operator theory, and numerical analysis.The selection first offers information on the optimal control of stochastic systems and Gleason measures. Discussions focus on convergence of Gleason measures, random Gleason measures, orthogonally scattered Gleason measures, existence of optimal controls without feedback, random necessary conditions, and Gleason measures in tensor products. The text then elaborates on an
Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.
1981-01-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)
Probabilistic hypergraph based hash codes for social image search
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Yi XIE; Hui-min YU; Roland HU
2014-01-01
With the rapid development of the Internet, recent years have seen the explosive growth of social media. This brings great challenges in performing efficient and accurate image retrieval on a large scale. Recent work shows that using hashing methods to embed high-dimensional image features and tag information into Hamming space provides a powerful way to index large collections of social images. By learning hash codes through a spectral graph partitioning algorithm, spectral hashing (SH) has shown promising performance among various hashing approaches. However, it is incomplete to model the relations among images only by pairwise simple graphs which ignore the relationship in a higher order. In this paper, we utilize a probabilistic hypergraph model to learn hash codes for social image retrieval. A probabilistic hypergraph model offers a higher order repre-sentation among social images by connecting more than two images in one hyperedge. Unlike a normal hypergraph model, a probabilistic hypergraph model considers not only the grouping information, but also the similarities between vertices in hy-peredges. Experiments on Flickr image datasets verify the performance of our proposed approach.
Inherently stochastic spiking neurons for probabilistic neural computation
Al-Shedivat, Maruan
2015-04-01
Neuromorphic engineering aims to design hardware that efficiently mimics neural circuitry and provides the means for emulating and studying neural systems. In this paper, we propose a new memristor-based neuron circuit that uniquely complements the scope of neuron implementations and follows the stochastic spike response model (SRM), which plays a cornerstone role in spike-based probabilistic algorithms. We demonstrate that the switching of the memristor is akin to the stochastic firing of the SRM. Our analysis and simulations show that the proposed neuron circuit satisfies a neural computability condition that enables probabilistic neural sampling and spike-based Bayesian learning and inference. Our findings constitute an important step towards memristive, scalable and efficient stochastic neuromorphic platforms. © 2015 IEEE.
Gutmann, Bernd
2011-01-01
In the last decade remarkable progress has been made on combining statistical machine learning techniques, reasoning under uncertainty, and relational representations. The branch of Artificial Intelligence working on the synthesis of these three areas is known as statistical relational learning or probabilistic logic learning.ProbLog, one of the probabilistic frameworks developed, is an extension of the logic programming language Prolog with independent random variables that are defined by an...
Short, Nick, Jr.; Bedet, Jean-Jacques; Bodden, Lee; Boddy, Mark; White, Jim; Beane, John
1994-01-01
The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) has been operational since October 1, 1993. Its mission is to support the Earth Observing System (EOS) by providing rapid access to EOS data and analysis products, and to test Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) design concepts. One of the challenges is to ensure quick and easy retrieval of any data archived within the DAAC's Data Archive and Distributed System (DADS). Over the 15-year life of EOS project, an estimated several Petabytes (10(exp 15)) of data will be permanently stored. Accessing that amount of information is a formidable task that will require innovative approaches. As a precursor of the full EOS system, the GSFC DAAC with a few Terabits of storage, has implemented a prototype of a constraint-based task and resource scheduler to improve the performance of the DADS. This Honeywell Task and Resource Scheduler (HTRS), developed by Honeywell Technology Center in cooperation the Information Science and Technology Branch/935, the Code X Operations Technology Program, and the GSFC DAAC, makes better use of limited resources, prevents backlog of data, provides information about resources bottlenecks and performance characteristics. The prototype which is developed concurrently with the GSFC Version 0 (V0) DADS, models DADS activities such as ingestion and distribution with priority, precedence, resource requirements (disk and network bandwidth) and temporal constraints. HTRS supports schedule updates, insertions, and retrieval of task information via an Application Program Interface (API). The prototype has demonstrated with a few examples, the substantial advantages of using HTRS over scheduling algorithms such as a First In First Out (FIFO) queue. The kernel scheduling engine for HTRS, called Kronos, has been successfully applied to several other domains such as space shuttle mission scheduling, demand flow manufacturing, and avionics communications
Giguere, Andrew T.; Murthy, Ganti S.; Bottomley, Peter J.; Sayavedra-Soto, Luis A.
2018-01-01
ABSTRACT Nitrification, the aerobic oxidation of ammonia to nitrate via nitrite, emits nitrogen (N) oxide gases (NO, NO2, and N2O), which are potentially hazardous compounds that contribute to global warming. To better understand the dynamics of nitrification-derived N oxide production, we conducted culturing experiments and used an integrative genome-scale, constraint-based approach to model N oxide gas sources and sinks during complete nitrification in an aerobic coculture of two model nitrifying bacteria, the ammonia-oxidizing bacterium Nitrosomonas europaea and the nitrite-oxidizing bacterium Nitrobacter winogradskyi. The model includes biotic genome-scale metabolic models (iFC578 and iFC579) for each nitrifier and abiotic N oxide reactions. Modeling suggested both biotic and abiotic reactions are important sources and sinks of N oxides, particularly under microaerobic conditions predicted to occur in coculture. In particular, integrative modeling suggested that previous models might have underestimated gross NO production during nitrification due to not taking into account its rapid oxidation in both aqueous and gas phases. The integrative model may be found at https://github.com/chaplenf/microBiome-v2.1. IMPORTANCE Modern agriculture is sustained by application of inorganic nitrogen (N) fertilizer in the form of ammonium (NH4+). Up to 60% of NH4+-based fertilizer can be lost through leaching of nitrifier-derived nitrate (NO3−), and through the emission of N oxide gases (i.e., nitric oxide [NO], N dioxide [NO2], and nitrous oxide [N2O] gases), the latter being a potent greenhouse gas. Our approach to modeling of nitrification suggests that both biotic and abiotic mechanisms function as important sources and sinks of N oxides during microaerobic conditions and that previous models might have underestimated gross NO production during nitrification. PMID:29577088
Mellbye, Brett L; Giguere, Andrew T; Murthy, Ganti S; Bottomley, Peter J; Sayavedra-Soto, Luis A; Chaplen, Frank W R
2018-01-01
Nitrification, the aerobic oxidation of ammonia to nitrate via nitrite, emits nitrogen (N) oxide gases (NO, NO 2 , and N 2 O), which are potentially hazardous compounds that contribute to global warming. To better understand the dynamics of nitrification-derived N oxide production, we conducted culturing experiments and used an integrative genome-scale, constraint-based approach to model N oxide gas sources and sinks during complete nitrification in an aerobic coculture of two model nitrifying bacteria, the ammonia-oxidizing bacterium Nitrosomonas europaea and the nitrite-oxidizing bacterium Nitrobacter winogradskyi . The model includes biotic genome-scale metabolic models (iFC578 and iFC579) for each nitrifier and abiotic N oxide reactions. Modeling suggested both biotic and abiotic reactions are important sources and sinks of N oxides, particularly under microaerobic conditions predicted to occur in coculture. In particular, integrative modeling suggested that previous models might have underestimated gross NO production during nitrification due to not taking into account its rapid oxidation in both aqueous and gas phases. The integrative model may be found at https://github.com/chaplenf/microBiome-v2.1. IMPORTANCE Modern agriculture is sustained by application of inorganic nitrogen (N) fertilizer in the form of ammonium (NH 4 + ). Up to 60% of NH 4 + -based fertilizer can be lost through leaching of nitrifier-derived nitrate (NO 3 - ), and through the emission of N oxide gases (i.e., nitric oxide [NO], N dioxide [NO 2 ], and nitrous oxide [N 2 O] gases), the latter being a potent greenhouse gas. Our approach to modeling of nitrification suggests that both biotic and abiotic mechanisms function as important sources and sinks of N oxides during microaerobic conditions and that previous models might have underestimated gross NO production during nitrification.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Grigoriy E Pinchuk
2010-06-01
Full Text Available Shewanellae are gram-negative facultatively anaerobic metal-reducing bacteria commonly found in chemically (i.e., redox stratified environments. Occupying such niches requires the ability to rapidly acclimate to changes in electron donor/acceptor type and availability; hence, the ability to compete and thrive in such environments must ultimately be reflected in the organization and utilization of electron transfer networks, as well as central and peripheral carbon metabolism. To understand how Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 utilizes its resources, the metabolic network was reconstructed. The resulting network consists of 774 reactions, 783 genes, and 634 unique metabolites and contains biosynthesis pathways for all cell constituents. Using constraint-based modeling, we investigated aerobic growth of S. oneidensis MR-1 on numerous carbon sources. To achieve this, we (i used experimental data to formulate a biomass equation and estimate cellular ATP requirements, (ii developed an approach to identify cycles (such as futile cycles and circulations, (iii classified how reaction usage affects cellular growth, (iv predicted cellular biomass yields on different carbon sources and compared model predictions to experimental measurements, and (v used experimental results to refine metabolic fluxes for growth on lactate. The results revealed that aerobic lactate-grown cells of S. oneidensis MR-1 used less efficient enzymes to couple electron transport to proton motive force generation, and possibly operated at least one futile cycle involving malic enzymes. Several examples are provided whereby model predictions were validated by experimental data, in particular the role of serine hydroxymethyltransferase and glycine cleavage system in the metabolism of one-carbon units, and growth on different sources of carbon and energy. This work illustrates how integration of computational and experimental efforts facilitates the understanding of microbial metabolism at a
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daugherty Sean
2009-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Rhodoferax ferrireducens is a metabolically versatile, Fe(III-reducing, subsurface microorganism that is likely to play an important role in the carbon and metal cycles in the subsurface. It also has the unique ability to convert sugars to electricity, oxidizing the sugars to carbon dioxide with quantitative electron transfer to graphite electrodes in microbial fuel cells. In order to expand our limited knowledge about R. ferrireducens, the complete genome sequence of this organism was further annotated and then the physiology of R. ferrireducens was investigated with a constraint-based, genome-scale in silico metabolic model and laboratory studies. Results The iterative modeling and experimental approach unveiled exciting, previously unknown physiological features, including an expanded range of substrates that support growth, such as cellobiose and citrate, and provided additional insights into important features such as the stoichiometry of the electron transport chain and the ability to grow via fumarate dismutation. Further analysis explained why R. ferrireducens is unable to grow via photosynthesis or fermentation of sugars like other members of this genus and uncovered novel genes for benzoate metabolism. The genome also revealed that R. ferrireducens is well-adapted for growth in the subsurface because it appears to be capable of dealing with a number of environmental insults, including heavy metals, aromatic compounds, nutrient limitation and oxidative stress. Conclusion This study demonstrates that combining genome-scale modeling with the annotation of a new genome sequence can guide experimental studies and accelerate the understanding of the physiology of under-studied yet environmentally relevant microorganisms.
Probabilistic finite elements for fracture mechanics
Besterfield, Glen
1988-01-01
The probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) is developed for probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM). A finite element which has the near crack-tip singular strain embedded in the element is used. Probabilistic distributions, such as expectation, covariance and correlation stress intensity factors, are calculated for random load, random material and random crack length. The method is computationally quite efficient and can be expected to determine the probability of fracture or reliability.
Probabilistic Harmonic Modeling of Wind Power Plants
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Guest, Emerson; Jensen, Kim H.; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg
2017-01-01
A probabilistic sequence domain (SD) harmonic model of a grid-connected voltage-source converter is used to estimate harmonic emissions in a wind power plant (WPP) comprised of Type-IV wind turbines. The SD representation naturally partitioned converter generated voltage harmonics into those...... with deterministic phase and those with probabilistic phase. A case study performed on a string of ten 3MW, Type-IV wind turbines implemented in PSCAD was used to verify the probabilistic SD harmonic model. The probabilistic SD harmonic model can be employed in the planning phase of WPP projects to assess harmonic...
Probabilistic Flood Defence Assessment Tools
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Slomp Robert
2016-01-01
institutions managing flood the defences, and not by just a small number of experts in probabilistic assessment. Therefore, data management and use of software are main issues that have been covered in courses and training in 2016 and 2017. All in all, this is the largest change in the assessment of Dutch flood defences since 1996. In 1996 probabilistic techniques were first introduced to determine hydraulic boundary conditions (water levels and waves (wave height, wave period and direction for different return periods. To simplify the process, the assessment continues to consist of a three-step approach, moving from simple decision rules, to the methods for semi-probabilistic assessment, and finally to a fully probabilistic analysis to compare the strength of flood defences with the hydraulic loads. The formal assessment results are thus mainly based on the fully probabilistic analysis and the ultimate limit state of the strength of a flood defence. For complex flood defences, additional models and software were developed. The current Hydra software suite (for policy analysis, formal flood defence assessment and design will be replaced by the model Ringtoets. New stand-alone software has been developed for revetments, geotechnical analysis and slope stability of the foreshore. Design software and policy analysis software, including the Delta model, will be updated in 2018. A fully probabilistic method results in more precise assessments and more transparency in the process of assessment and reconstruction of flood defences. This is of increasing importance, as large-scale infrastructural projects in a highly urbanized environment are increasingly subject to political and societal pressure to add additional features. For this reason, it is of increasing importance to be able to determine which new feature really adds to flood protection, to quantify how much its adds to the level of flood protection and to evaluate if it is really worthwhile. Please note: The Netherlands
Aging in probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kozuh, M.
1995-01-01
Aging is a phenomenon, which is influencing on unavailability of all components of the plant. The influence of aging on Probabilistic Safety Assessment calculations was estimated for Electrical Power Supply System. The average increase of system unavailability due to aging of system components was estimated and components were prioritized regarding their influence on change of system unavailability and relative increase of their unavailability due to aging. After the analysis of some numerical results, the recommendation for a detailed research of aging phenomena and its influence on system availability is given. (author)
Probabilistic assessment of SGTR management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Champ, M.; Cornille, Y.; Lanore, J.M.
1989-04-01
In case of steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) event, in France, the mitigation of accident relies on operator intervention, by applying a specific accidental procedure. A detailed probabilistic analysis has been conducted which required the assessment of the failure probability of the operator actions, and for that purpose it was necessary to estimate the time available for the operator to apply the adequate procedure for various sequences. The results indicate that by taking into account the delays and the existence of adequate accidental procedures, the risk is reduced to a reasonably low level
Probabilistic accident sequence recovery analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stutzke, Martin A.; Cooper, Susan E.
2004-01-01
Recovery analysis is a method that considers alternative strategies for preventing accidents in nuclear power plants during probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Consideration of possible recovery actions in PRAs has been controversial, and there seems to be a widely held belief among PRA practitioners, utility staff, plant operators, and regulators that the results of recovery analysis should be skeptically viewed. This paper provides a framework for discussing recovery strategies, thus lending credibility to the process and enhancing regulatory acceptance of PRA results and conclusions. (author)
Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bari, R.A.
1985-01-01
This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)
Axiomatisation of fully probabilistic design
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kárný, Miroslav; Kroupa, Tomáš
2012-01-01
Roč. 186, č. 1 (2012), s. 105-113 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06001; GA ČR GA102/08/0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Bayesian decision making * Fully probabilistic design * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Unified decision making Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.643, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/karny-0367271.pdf
Probabilistic Analysis of Crack Width
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Marková
2000-01-01
Full Text Available Probabilistic analysis of crack width of a reinforced concrete element is based on the formulas accepted in Eurocode 2 and European Model Code 90. Obtained values of reliability index b seem to be satisfactory for the reinforced concrete slab that fulfils requirements for the crack width specified in Eurocode 2. However, the reliability of the slab seems to be insufficient when the European Model Code 90 is considered; reliability index is less than recommended value 1.5 for serviceability limit states indicated in Eurocode 1. Analysis of sensitivity factors of basic variables enables to find out variables significantly affecting the total crack width.
Probabilistic approach to EMP assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bevensee, R.M.; Cabayan, H.S.; Deadrick, F.J.; Martin, L.C.; Mensing, R.W.
1980-09-01
The development of nuclear EMP hardness requirements must account for uncertainties in the environment, in interaction and coupling, and in the susceptibility of subsystems and components. Typical uncertainties of the last two kinds are briefly summarized, and an assessment methodology is outlined, based on a probabilistic approach that encompasses the basic concepts of reliability. It is suggested that statements of survivability be made compatible with system reliability. Validation of the approach taken for simple antenna/circuit systems is performed with experiments and calculations that involve a Transient Electromagnetic Range, numerical antenna modeling, separate device failure data, and a failure analysis computer program
Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1982-01-01
This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr
Probabilistic safety analysis using microcomputer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Futuro Filho, F.L.F.; Mendes, J.E.S.; Santos, M.J.P. dos
1990-01-01
The main steps of execution of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) are presented in this report, as the study of the system description, construction of event trees and fault trees, and the calculation of overall unavailability of the systems. It is also presented the use of microcomputer in performing some tasks, highlightning the main characteristics of a software to perform adequately the job. A sample case of fault tree construction and calculation is presented, using the PSAPACK software, distributed by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) for training purpose. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bushell Michael E
2011-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Constraint-based approaches facilitate the prediction of cellular metabolic capabilities, based, in turn on predictions of the repertoire of enzymes encoded in the genome. Recently, genome annotations have been used to reconstruct genome scale metabolic reaction networks for numerous species, including Homo sapiens, which allow simulations that provide valuable insights into topics, including predictions of gene essentiality of pathogens, interpretation of genetic polymorphism in metabolic disease syndromes and suggestions for novel approaches to microbial metabolic engineering. These constraint-based simulations are being integrated with the functional genomics portals, an activity that requires efficient implementation of the constraint-based simulations in the web-based environment. Results Here, we present Acorn, an open source (GNU GPL grid computing system for constraint-based simulations of genome scale metabolic reaction networks within an interactive web environment. The grid-based architecture allows efficient execution of computationally intensive, iterative protocols such as Flux Variability Analysis, which can be readily scaled up as the numbers of models (and users increase. The web interface uses AJAX, which facilitates efficient model browsing and other search functions, and intuitive implementation of appropriate simulation conditions. Research groups can install Acorn locally and create user accounts. Users can also import models in the familiar SBML format and link reaction formulas to major functional genomics portals of choice. Selected models and simulation results can be shared between different users and made publically available. Users can construct pathway map layouts and import them into the server using a desktop editor integrated within the system. Pathway maps are then used to visualise numerical results within the web environment. To illustrate these features we have deployed Acorn and created a
Klamt, Steffen; Müller, Stefan; Regensburger, Georg; Zanghellini, Jürgen
2018-02-07
The optimization of metabolic rates (as linear objective functions) represents the methodical core of flux-balance analysis techniques which have become a standard tool for the study of genome-scale metabolic models. Besides (growth and synthesis) rates, metabolic yields are key parameters for the characterization of biochemical transformation processes, especially in the context of biotechnological applications. However, yields are ratios of rates, and hence the optimization of yields (as nonlinear objective functions) under arbitrary linear constraints is not possible with current flux-balance analysis techniques. Despite the fundamental importance of yields in constraint-based modeling, a comprehensive mathematical framework for yield optimization is still missing. We present a mathematical theory that allows one to systematically compute and analyze yield-optimal solutions of metabolic models under arbitrary linear constraints. In particular, we formulate yield optimization as a linear-fractional program. For practical computations, we transform the linear-fractional yield optimization problem to a (higher-dimensional) linear problem. Its solutions determine the solutions of the original problem and can be used to predict yield-optimal flux distributions in genome-scale metabolic models. For the theoretical analysis, we consider the linear-fractional problem directly. Most importantly, we show that the yield-optimal solution set (like the rate-optimal solution set) is determined by (yield-optimal) elementary flux vectors of the underlying metabolic model. However, yield- and rate-optimal solutions may differ from each other, and hence optimal (biomass or product) yields are not necessarily obtained at solutions with optimal (growth or synthesis) rates. Moreover, we discuss phase planes/production envelopes and yield spaces, in particular, we prove that yield spaces are convex and provide algorithms for their computation. We illustrate our findings by a small
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gang Qiao
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Landslides are one of the most destructive geo-hazards that can bring about great threats to both human lives and infrastructures. Landslide monitoring has been always a research hotspot. In particular, landslide simulation experimentation is an effective tool in landslide research to obtain critical parameters that help understand the mechanism and evaluate the triggering and controlling factors of slope failure. Compared with other traditional geotechnical monitoring approaches, the close-range photogrammetry technique shows potential in tracking and recording the 3D surface deformation and failure processes. In such cases, image matching usually plays a critical role in stereo image processing for the 3D geometric reconstruction. However, the complex imaging conditions such as rainfall, mass movement, illumination, and ponding will reduce the texture quality of the stereo images, bringing about difficulties in the image matching process and resulting in very sparse matches. To address this problem, this paper presents a multiple-constraints based robust image matching approach for poor-texture close-range images particularly useful in monitoring a simulated landslide. The Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT algorithm was first applied to the stereo images for generation of scale-invariate feature points, followed by a two-step matching process: feature-based image matching and area-based image matching. In the first feature-based matching step, the triangulation process was performed based on the SIFT matches filtered by the Fundamental Matrix (FM and a robust checking procedure, to serve as the basic constraints for feature-based iterated matching of all the non-matched SIFT-derived feature points inside each triangle. In the following area-based image-matching step, the corresponding points of the non-matched features in each triangle of the master image were predicted in the homologous triangle of the searching image by using geometric
Compression of Probabilistic XML Documents
Veldman, Irma; de Keijzer, Ander; van Keulen, Maurice
Database techniques to store, query and manipulate data that contains uncertainty receives increasing research interest. Such UDBMSs can be classified according to their underlying data model: relational, XML, or RDF. We focus on uncertain XML DBMS with as representative example the Probabilistic XML model (PXML) of [10,9]. The size of a PXML document is obviously a factor in performance. There are PXML-specific techniques to reduce the size, such as a push down mechanism, that produces equivalent but more compact PXML documents. It can only be applied, however, where possibilities are dependent. For normal XML documents there also exist several techniques for compressing a document. Since Probabilistic XML is (a special form of) normal XML, it might benefit from these methods even more. In this paper, we show that existing compression mechanisms can be combined with PXML-specific compression techniques. We also show that best compression rates are obtained with a combination of PXML-specific technique with a rather simple generic DAG-compression technique.
Living probabilistic safety assessment (LPSA)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1999-08-01
Over the past few years many nuclear power plant organizations have performed probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) to identify and understand key plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. PSA is an effective tool for this purpose as it assists plant management to target resources where the largest benefit to plant safety can be obtained. However, any PSA which is to be used in this way must have a credible and defensible basis. Thus, it is very important to have a high quality 'living PSA' accepted by the plant and the regulator. With this background in mind, the IAEA has prepared this report on Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (LPSA) which addresses the updating, documentation, quality assurance, and management and organizational requirements for LPSA. Deficiencies in the areas addressed in this report would seriously reduce the adequacy of the LPSA as a tool to support decision making at NPPs. This report was reviewed by a working group during a Technical Committee Meeting on PSA Applications to Improve NPP Safety held in Madrid, Spain, from 23 to 27 February 1998
Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction
Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto
2004-01-01
A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chikkagoudar, Satish; Chatterjee, Samrat; Thomas, Dennis G.; Carroll, Thomas E.; Muller, George
2017-04-21
The absence of a robust and unified theory of cyber dynamics presents challenges and opportunities for using machine learning based data-driven approaches to further the understanding of the behavior of such complex systems. Analysts can also use machine learning approaches to gain operational insights. In order to be operationally beneficial, cybersecurity machine learning based models need to have the ability to: (1) represent a real-world system, (2) infer system properties, and (3) learn and adapt based on expert knowledge and observations. Probabilistic models and Probabilistic graphical models provide these necessary properties and are further explored in this chapter. Bayesian Networks and Hidden Markov Models are introduced as an example of a widely used data driven classification/modeling strategy.
Is Probabilistic Evidence a Source of Knowledge?
Friedman, Ori; Turri, John
2015-01-01
We report a series of experiments examining whether people ascribe knowledge for true beliefs based on probabilistic evidence. Participants were less likely to ascribe knowledge for beliefs based on probabilistic evidence than for beliefs based on perceptual evidence (Experiments 1 and 2A) or testimony providing causal information (Experiment 2B).…
Multiobjective optimal allocation problem with probabilistic non ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper considers the optimum compromise allocation in multivariate stratified sampling with non-linear objective function and probabilistic non-linear cost constraint. The probabilistic non-linear cost constraint is converted into equivalent deterministic one by using Chance Constrained programming. A numerical ...
Probabilistic reasoning with graphical security models
Kordy, Barbara; Pouly, Marc; Schweitzer, Patrick
This work provides a computational framework for meaningful probabilistic evaluation of attack–defense scenarios involving dependent actions. We combine the graphical security modeling technique of attack–defense trees with probabilistic information expressed in terms of Bayesian networks. In order
Probabilistic Geoacoustic Inversion in Complex Environments
2015-09-30
Probabilistic Geoacoustic Inversion in Complex Environments Jan Dettmer School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria BC...long-range inversion methods can fail to provide sufficient resolution. For proper quantitative examination of variability, parameter uncertainty must...project aims to advance probabilistic geoacoustic inversion methods for complex ocean environments for a range of geoacoustic data types. The work is
Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2014-02-14
Feb 14, 2014 ... Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model ... aim of this paper is to investigate the increase in the lead-time of flash flood warnings of the SAFFG using probabilistic precipitation forecasts ... The procedure is applied to a real flash flood event and the ensemble-based.
Why do probabilistic finite element analysis ?
Thacker, Ben H
2008-01-01
The intention of this book is to provide an introduction to performing probabilistic finite element analysis. As a short guideline, the objective is to inform the reader of the use, benefits and issues associated with performing probabilistic finite element analysis without excessive theory or mathematical detail.
Branching bisimulation congruence for probabilistic systems
Trcka, N.; Georgievska, S.; Aldini, A.; Baier, C.
2008-01-01
The notion of branching bisimulation for the alternating model of probabilistic systems is not a congruence with respect to parallel composition. In this paper we first define another branching bisimulation in the more general model allowing consecutive probabilistic transitions, and we prove that
Probabilistic Reversible Automata and Quantum Automata
Golovkins, Marats; Kravtsev, Maksim
2002-01-01
To study relationship between quantum finite automata and probabilistic finite automata, we introduce a notion of probabilistic reversible automata (PRA, or doubly stochastic automata). We find that there is a strong relationship between different possible models of PRA and corresponding models of quantum finite automata. We also propose a classification of reversible finite 1-way automata.
Bisimulations meet PCTL equivalences for probabilistic automata
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Song, Lei; Zhang, Lijun; Godskesen, Jens Chr.
2013-01-01
Probabilistic automata (PAs) have been successfully applied in formal verification of concurrent and stochastic systems. Efficient model checking algorithms have been studied, where the most often used logics for expressing properties are based on probabilistic computation tree logic (PCTL) and its...
Behavioral Modeling Based on Probabilistic Finite Automata: An Empirical Study.
Tîrnăucă, Cristina; Montaña, José L; Ontañón, Santiago; González, Avelino J; Pardo, Luis M
2016-06-24
Imagine an agent that performs tasks according to different strategies. The goal of Behavioral Recognition (BR) is to identify which of the available strategies is the one being used by the agent, by simply observing the agent's actions and the environmental conditions during a certain period of time. The goal of Behavioral Cloning (BC) is more ambitious. In this last case, the learner must be able to build a model of the behavior of the agent. In both settings, the only assumption is that the learner has access to a training set that contains instances of observed behavioral traces for each available strategy. This paper studies a machine learning approach based on Probabilistic Finite Automata (PFAs), capable of achieving both the recognition and cloning tasks. We evaluate the performance of PFAs in the context of a simulated learning environment (in this case, a virtual Roomba vacuum cleaner robot), and compare it with a collection of other machine learning approaches.
HIERARCHICAL PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE OF COSMIC SHEAR
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schneider, Michael D.; Dawson, William A.; Hogg, David W.; Marshall, Philip J.; Bard, Deborah J.; Meyers, Joshua; Lang, Dustin
2015-01-01
Point estimators for the shearing of galaxy images induced by gravitational lensing involve a complex inverse problem in the presence of noise, pixelization, and model uncertainties. We present a probabilistic forward modeling approach to gravitational lensing inference that has the potential to mitigate the biased inferences in most common point estimators and is practical for upcoming lensing surveys. The first part of our statistical framework requires specification of a likelihood function for the pixel data in an imaging survey given parameterized models for the galaxies in the images. We derive the lensing shear posterior by marginalizing over all intrinsic galaxy properties that contribute to the pixel data (i.e., not limited to galaxy ellipticities) and learn the distributions for the intrinsic galaxy properties via hierarchical inference with a suitably flexible conditional probabilitiy distribution specification. We use importance sampling to separate the modeling of small imaging areas from the global shear inference, thereby rendering our algorithm computationally tractable for large surveys. With simple numerical examples we demonstrate the improvements in accuracy from our importance sampling approach, as well as the significance of the conditional distribution specification for the intrinsic galaxy properties when the data are generated from an unknown number of distinct galaxy populations with different morphological characteristics
2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview
Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.
2010-01-01
Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.
Consideration of aging in probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Titina, B.; Cepin, M.
2007-01-01
Probabilistic safety assessment is a standardised tool for assessment of safety of nuclear power plants. It is a complement to the safety analyses. Standard probabilistic models of safety equipment assume component failure rate as a constant. Ageing of systems, structures and components can theoretically be included in new age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment, which generally causes the failure rate to be a function of age. New age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment models, which offer explicit calculation of the ageing effects, are developed. Several groups of components are considered which require their unique models: e.g. operating components e.g. stand-by components. The developed models on the component level are inserted into the models of the probabilistic safety assessment in order that the ageing effects are evaluated for complete systems. The preliminary results show that the lack of necessary data for consideration of ageing causes highly uncertain models and consequently the results. (author)
Structural reliability codes for probabilistic design
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager
1997-01-01
probabilistic code format has not only strong influence on the formal reliability measure, but also on the formal cost of failure to be associated if a design made to the target reliability level is considered to be optimal. In fact, the formal cost of failure can be different by several orders of size for two...... different, but by and large equally justifiable probabilistic code formats. Thus, the consequence is that a code format based on decision theoretical concepts and formulated as an extension of a probabilistic code format must specify formal values to be used as costs of failure. A principle of prudence...... is suggested for guiding the choice of the reference probabilistic code format for constant reliability. In the author's opinion there is an urgent need for establishing a standard probabilistic reliability code. This paper presents some considerations that may be debatable, but nevertheless point...
Disruption of the Right Temporoparietal Junction Impairs Probabilistic Belief Updating.
Mengotti, Paola; Dombert, Pascasie L; Fink, Gereon R; Vossel, Simone
2017-05-31
Generating and updating probabilistic models of the environment is a fundamental modus operandi of the human brain. Although crucial for various cognitive functions, the neural mechanisms of these inference processes remain to be elucidated. Here, we show the causal involvement of the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) in updating probabilistic beliefs and we provide new insights into the chronometry of the process by combining online transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) with computational modeling of behavioral responses. Female and male participants performed a modified location-cueing paradigm, where false information about the percentage of cue validity (%CV) was provided in half of the experimental blocks to prompt updating of prior expectations. Online double-pulse TMS over rTPJ 300 ms (but not 50 ms) after target appearance selectively decreased participants' updating of false prior beliefs concerning %CV, reflected in a decreased learning rate of a Rescorla-Wagner model. Online TMS over rTPJ also impacted on participants' explicit beliefs, causing them to overestimate %CV. These results confirm the involvement of rTPJ in updating of probabilistic beliefs, thereby advancing our understanding of this area's function during cognitive processing. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Contemporary views propose that the brain maintains probabilistic models of the world to minimize surprise about sensory inputs. Here, we provide evidence that the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) is causally involved in this process. Because neuroimaging has suggested that rTPJ is implicated in divergent cognitive domains, the demonstration of an involvement in updating internal models provides a novel unifying explanation for these findings. We used computational modeling to characterize how participants change their beliefs after new observations. By interfering with rTPJ activity through online transcranial magnetic stimulation, we showed that participants were less able to update
Grammaticality, Acceptability, and Probability: A Probabilistic View of Linguistic Knowledge.
Lau, Jey Han; Clark, Alexander; Lappin, Shalom
2017-07-01
The question of whether humans represent grammatical knowledge as a binary condition on membership in a set of well-formed sentences, or as a probabilistic property has been the subject of debate among linguists, psychologists, and cognitive scientists for many decades. Acceptability judgments present a serious problem for both classical binary and probabilistic theories of grammaticality. These judgements are gradient in nature, and so cannot be directly accommodated in a binary formal grammar. However, it is also not possible to simply reduce acceptability to probability. The acceptability of a sentence is not the same as the likelihood of its occurrence, which is, in part, determined by factors like sentence length and lexical frequency. In this paper, we present the results of a set of large-scale experiments using crowd-sourced acceptability judgments that demonstrate gradience to be a pervasive feature in acceptability judgments. We then show how one can predict acceptability judgments on the basis of probability by augmenting probabilistic language models with an acceptability measure. This is a function that normalizes probability values to eliminate the confounding factors of length and lexical frequency. We describe a sequence of modeling experiments with unsupervised language models drawn from state-of-the-art machine learning methods in natural language processing. Several of these models achieve very encouraging levels of accuracy in the acceptability prediction task, as measured by the correlation between the acceptability measure scores and mean human acceptability values. We consider the relevance of these results to the debate on the nature of grammatical competence, and we argue that they support the view that linguistic knowledge can be intrinsically probabilistic. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling
Joyner, James J., Sr.
2016-01-01
This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.
Probabilistic cloning with supplementary information
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Azuma, Koji; Shimamura, Junichi; Koashi, Masato; Imoto, Nobuyuki
2005-01-01
We consider probabilistic cloning of a state chosen from a mutually nonorthogonal set of pure states, with the help of a party holding supplementary information in the form of pure states. When the number of states is 2, we show that the best efficiency of producing m copies is always achieved by a two-step protocol in which the helping party first attempts to produce m-1 copies from the supplementary state, and if it fails, then the original state is used to produce m copies. On the other hand, when the number of states exceeds two, the best efficiency is not always achieved by such a protocol. We give examples in which the best efficiency is not achieved even if we allow any amount of one-way classical communication from the helping party
Probabilistic analysis of modernization options
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wunderlich, W.O.; Giles, J.E.
1991-01-01
This paper reports on benefit-cost analysis for hydropower operations, a standard procedure for reaching planning decisions. Cost overruns and benefit shortfalls are also common occurrences. One reason for the difficulty of predicting future benefits and costs is that they usually cannot be represented with sufficient reliability by accurate values, because of the many uncertainties that enter the analysis through assumptions on inputs and system parameters. Therefore, ranges of variables need to be analyzed instead of single values. As a consequence, the decision criteria, such as net benefit and benefit-cost ratio, also vary over some range. A probabilistic approach will be demonstrated as a tool for assessing the reliability of the results
Probabilistic assessments of fuel performance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kelppe, S.; Ranta-Puska, K.
1998-01-01
The probabilistic Monte Carlo Method, coupled with quasi-random sampling, is applied for the fuel performance analyses. By using known distributions of fabrication parameters and real power histories with their randomly selected combinations, and by making a large number of ENIGMA code calculations, one expects to find out the state of the whole reactor fuel. Good statistics requires thousands of runs. A sample case representing VVER-440 reactor fuel indicates relatively low fuel temperatures and mainly athermal fission gas release if any. The rod internal pressure remains typically below 2.5 MPa, which leaves a large margin to the system pressure of 12 MPa Gap conductance, an essential parameter in the accident evaluations, shows no decrease from its start-of-life value. (orig.)
Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Program (FATIG)
Michalopoulos, Constantine
2012-01-01
FATIG computes fatigue damage/fatigue life using the stress rms (root mean square) value, the total number of cycles, and S-N curve parameters. The damage is computed by the following methods: (a) traditional method using Miner s rule with stress cycles determined from a Rayleigh distribution up to 3*sigma; and (b) classical fatigue damage formula involving the Gamma function, which is derived from the integral version of Miner's rule. The integration is carried out over all stress amplitudes. This software solves the problem of probabilistic fatigue damage using the integral form of the Palmgren-Miner rule. The software computes fatigue life using an approach involving all stress amplitudes, up to N*sigma, as specified by the user. It can be used in the design of structural components subjected to random dynamic loading, or by any stress analyst with minimal training for fatigue life estimates of structural components.
Probabilistic cloning of equidistant states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jimenez, O.; Roa, Luis; Delgado, A.
2010-01-01
We study the probabilistic cloning of equidistant states. These states are such that the inner product between them is a complex constant or its conjugate. Thereby, it is possible to study their cloning in a simple way. In particular, we are interested in the behavior of the cloning probability as a function of the phase of the overlap among the involved states. We show that for certain families of equidistant states Duan and Guo's cloning machine leads to cloning probabilities lower than the optimal unambiguous discrimination probability of equidistant states. We propose an alternative cloning machine whose cloning probability is higher than or equal to the optimal unambiguous discrimination probability for any family of equidistant states. Both machines achieve the same probability for equidistant states whose inner product is a positive real number.
Probabilistic safety assessment - regulatory perspective
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Solanki, R.B.; Paul, U.K.; Hajra, P.; Agarwal, S.K.
2002-01-01
Full text: Nuclear power plants (NPPs) have been designed, constructed and operated mainly based on deterministic safety analysis philosophy. In this approach, a substantial amount of safety margin is incorporated in the design and operational requirements. Additional margin is incorporated by applying the highest quality engineering codes, standards and practices, and the concept of defence-in-depth in design and operating procedures, by including conservative assumptions and acceptance criteria in plant response analysis of postulated initiating events (PIEs). However, as the probabilistic approach has been improved and refined over the years, it is possible for the designer, operator and regulator to get a more detailed and realistic picture of the safety importance of plant design features, operating procedures and operational practices by using probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) along with the deterministic methodology. At present, many countries including USA, UK and France are using PSA insights in their decision making along with deterministic basis. India has also made substantial progress in the development of methods for carrying out PSA. However, consensus on the use of PSA in regulatory decision-making has not been achieved yet. This paper emphasises on the requirements (e.g.,level of details, key modelling assumptions, data, modelling aspects, success criteria, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis) for improving the quality and consistency in performance and use of PSA that can facilitate meaningful use of the PSA insights in the regulatory decision-making in India. This paper also provides relevant information on international scenario and various application areas of PSA along with progress made in India. The PSA perspective presented in this paper may help in achieving consensus on the use of PSA for regulatory / utility decision-making in design and operation of NPPs
Probabilistic assessment of nuclear safety and safeguards
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Higson, D.J.
1987-01-01
Nuclear reactor accidents and diversions of materials from the nuclear fuel cycle are perceived by many people as particularly serious threats to society. Probabilistic assessment is a rational approach to the evaluation of both threats, and may provide a basis for decisions on appropriate actions to control them. Probabilistic method have become standard tools used in the analysis of safety, but there are disagreements on the criteria to be applied when assessing the results of analysis. Probabilistic analysis and assessment of the effectiveness of nuclear material safeguards are still at an early stage of development. (author)
Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodologies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kudinov, P.; Vorobyev, Y.; Sanchez-Perea, M.; Queral, C.; Jimenez Varas, G.; Rebollo, M. J.; Mena, L.; Gomez-Magin, J.
2014-02-01
IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment) is a family of methods which use tightly coupled probabilistic and deterministic approaches to address respective sources of uncertainties, enabling Risk informed decision making in a consistent manner. The starting point of the IDPSA framework is that safety justification must be based on the coupling of deterministic (consequences) and probabilistic (frequency) considerations to address the mutual interactions between stochastic disturbances (e.g. failures of the equipment, human actions, stochastic physical phenomena) and deterministic response of the plant (i.e. transients). This paper gives a general overview of some IDPSA methods as well as some possible applications to PWR safety analyses. (Author)
PROBABILISTIC RELATIONAL MODELS OF COMPLETE IL-SEMIRINGS
Tsumagari, Norihiro
2012-01-01
This paper studies basic properties of probabilistic multirelations which are generalized the semantic domain of probabilistic systems and then provides two probabilistic models of complete IL-semirings using probabilistic multirelations. Also it is shown that these models need not be models of complete idempotentsemirings.
A convergence theory for probabilistic metric spaces | Jäger ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
We develop a theory of probabilistic convergence spaces based on Tardiff's neighbourhood systems for probabilistic metric spaces. We show that the resulting category is a topological universe and we characterize a subcategory that is isomorphic to the category of probabilistic metric spaces. Keywords: Probabilistic metric ...
Disjunctive Probabilistic Modal Logic is Enough for Bisimilarity on Reactive Probabilistic Systems
Bernardo, Marco; Miculan, Marino
2016-01-01
Larsen and Skou characterized probabilistic bisimilarity over reactive probabilistic systems with a logic including true, negation, conjunction, and a diamond modality decorated with a probabilistic lower bound. Later on, Desharnais, Edalat, and Panangaden showed that negation is not necessary to characterize the same equivalence. In this paper, we prove that the logical characterization holds also when conjunction is replaced by disjunction, with negation still being not necessary. To this e...
On synchronous parallel computations with independent probabilistic choice
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reif, J.H.
1984-01-01
This paper introduces probabilistic choice to synchronous parallel machine models; in particular parallel RAMs. The power of probabilistic choice in parallel computations is illustrate by parallelizing some known probabilistic sequential algorithms. The authors characterize the computational complexity of time, space, and processor bounded probabilistic parallel RAMs in terms of the computational complexity of probabilistic sequential RAMs. They show that parallelism uniformly speeds up time bounded probabilistic sequential RAM computations by nearly a quadratic factor. They also show that probabilistic choice can be eliminated from parallel computations by introducing nonuniformity
Probabilistic Sensitivity Amplification Control for Lower Extremity Exoskeleton
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Likun Wang
2018-03-01
Full Text Available To achieve ideal force control of a functional autonomous exoskeleton, sensitivity amplification control is widely used in human strength augmentation applications. The original sensitivity amplification control aims to increase the closed-loop control system sensitivity based on positive feedback without any sensors between the pilot and the exoskeleton. Thus, the measurement system can be greatly simplified. Nevertheless, the controller lacks the ability to reject disturbance and has little robustness to the variation of the parameters. Consequently, a relatively precise dynamic model of the exoskeleton system is desired. Moreover, the human-robot interaction (HRI cannot be interpreted merely as a particular part of the driven torque quantitatively. Therefore, a novel control methodology, so-called probabilistic sensitivity amplification control, is presented in this paper. The innovation of the proposed control algorithm is two-fold: distributed hidden-state identification based on sensor observations and evolving learning of sensitivity factors for the purpose of dealing with the variational HRI. Compared to the other state-of-the-art algorithms, we verify the feasibility of the probabilistic sensitivity amplification control with several experiments, i.e., distributed identification model learning and walking with a human subject. The experimental result shows potential application feasibility.
Real-time probabilistic covariance tracking with efficient model update.
Wu, Yi; Cheng, Jian; Wang, Jinqiao; Lu, Hanqing; Wang, Jun; Ling, Haibin; Blasch, Erik; Bai, Li
2012-05-01
The recently proposed covariance region descriptor has been proven robust and versatile for a modest computational cost. The covariance matrix enables efficient fusion of different types of features, where the spatial and statistical properties, as well as their correlation, are characterized. The similarity between two covariance descriptors is measured on Riemannian manifolds. Based on the same metric but with a probabilistic framework, we propose a novel tracking approach on Riemannian manifolds with a novel incremental covariance tensor learning (ICTL). To address the appearance variations, ICTL incrementally learns a low-dimensional covariance tensor representation and efficiently adapts online to appearance changes of the target with only O(1) computational complexity, resulting in a real-time performance. The covariance-based representation and the ICTL are then combined with the particle filter framework to allow better handling of background clutter, as well as the temporary occlusions. We test the proposed probabilistic ICTL tracker on numerous benchmark sequences involving different types of challenges including occlusions and variations in illumination, scale, and pose. The proposed approach demonstrates excellent real-time performance, both qualitatively and quantitatively, in comparison with several previously proposed trackers.
Probabilistic Counterfactuals: Semantics, Computation, and Applications
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Balke, Alexander
1997-01-01
... handled within the framework of standard probability theory. Starting with functional description of physical mechanisms, we were able to derive the standard probabilistic properties of Bayesian networks and to show: (1...
Multiobjective optimal allocation problem with probabilistic non ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
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The probabilistic non-linear cost constraint is converted into equivalent deterministic .... Further, in a survey the costs for enumerating a character in various strata are not known exactly, rather these are being ...... Naval Research Logistics, Vol.
Strategic Team AI Path Plans: Probabilistic Pathfinding
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tng C. H. John
2008-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method to generate strategic team AI pathfinding plans for computer games and simulations using probabilistic pathfinding. This method is inspired by genetic algorithms (Russell and Norvig, 2002, in that, a fitness function is used to test the quality of the path plans. The method generates high-quality path plans by eliminating the low-quality ones. The path plans are generated by probabilistic pathfinding, and the elimination is done by a fitness test of the path plans. This path plan generation method has the ability to generate variation or different high-quality paths, which is desired for games to increase replay values. This work is an extension of our earlier work on team AI: probabilistic pathfinding (John et al., 2006. We explore ways to combine probabilistic pathfinding and genetic algorithm to create a new method to generate strategic team AI pathfinding plans.
Probabilistic Meteorological Characterization for Turbine Loads
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kelly, Mark C.; Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov
2014-01-01
Beyond the existing, limited IEC prescription to describe fatigue loads on wind turbines, we look towards probabilistic characterization of the loads via analogous characterization of the atmospheric flow, particularly for today's "taller" turbines with rotors well above the atmospheric surface...
Probabilistic composition of preferences, theory and applications
Parracho Sant'Anna, Annibal
2015-01-01
Putting forward a unified presentation of the features and possible applications of probabilistic preferences composition, and serving as a methodology for decisions employing multiple criteria, this book maximizes reader insights into the evaluation in probabilistic terms and the development of composition approaches that do not depend on assigning weights to the criteria. With key applications in important areas of management such as failure modes, effects analysis and productivity analysis – together with explanations about the application of the concepts involved –this book makes available numerical examples of probabilistic transformation development and probabilistic composition. Useful not only as a reference source for researchers, but also in teaching classes of graduate courses in Production Engineering and Management Science, the key themes of the book will be of especial interest to researchers in the field of Operational Research.
Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.
1993-01-01
This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory
Probabilistic safety assessment for seismic events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1993-10-01
This Technical Document on Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Seismic Events is mainly associated with the Safety Practice on Treatment of External Hazards in PSA and discusses in detail one specific external hazard, i.e. earthquakes
Estimating software development project size, using probabilistic ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Estimating software development project size, using probabilistic techniques. ... of managing the size of software development projects by Purchasers (Clients) and Vendors (Development ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT
Comparing Categorical and Probabilistic Fingerprint Evidence.
Garrett, Brandon; Mitchell, Gregory; Scurich, Nicholas
2018-04-23
Fingerprint examiners traditionally express conclusions in categorical terms, opining that impressions do or do not originate from the same source. Recently, probabilistic conclusions have been proposed, with examiners estimating the probability of a match between recovered and known prints. This study presented a nationally representative sample of jury-eligible adults with a hypothetical robbery case in which an examiner opined on the likelihood that a defendant's fingerprints matched latent fingerprints in categorical or probabilistic terms. We studied model language developed by the U.S. Defense Forensic Science Center to summarize results of statistical analysis of the similarity between prints. Participant ratings of the likelihood the defendant left prints at the crime scene and committed the crime were similar when exposed to categorical and strong probabilistic match evidence. Participants reduced these likelihoods when exposed to the weaker probabilistic evidence, but did not otherwise discriminate among the prints assigned different match probabilities. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
Probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing
Anderluh, J.H.M.
2007-01-01
The thesis presents three ways of calculating the Parisian option price as an illustration of probabilistic methods in exotic option pricing. Moreover options on commidities are considered and double-sided barrier options in a compound Poisson framework.
Non-unitary probabilistic quantum computing
Gingrich, Robert M.; Williams, Colin P.
2004-01-01
We present a method for designing quantum circuits that perform non-unitary quantum computations on n-qubit states probabilistically, and give analytic expressions for the success probability and fidelity.
A logic for inductive probabilistic reasoning
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred
2005-01-01
Inductive probabilistic reasoning is understood as the application of inference patterns that use statistical background information to assign (subjective) probabilities to single events. The simplest such inference pattern is direct inference: from '70% of As are Bs" and "a is an A" infer...... that a is a B with probability 0.7. Direct inference is generalized by Jeffrey's rule and the principle of cross-entropy minimization. To adequately formalize inductive probabilistic reasoning is an interesting topic for artificial intelligence, as an autonomous system acting in a complex environment may have...... to base its actions on a probabilistic model of its environment, and the probabilities needed to form this model can often be obtained by combining statistical background information with particular observations made, i.e., by inductive probabilistic reasoning. In this paper a formal framework...
Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. H. Ramos
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.
Risk assessment using probabilistic standards
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Avila, R.
2004-01-01
A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim
A probabilistic model for component-based shape synthesis
Kalogerakis, Evangelos
2012-07-01
We present an approach to synthesizing shapes from complex domains, by identifying new plausible combinations of components from existing shapes. Our primary contribution is a new generative model of component-based shape structure. The model represents probabilistic relationships between properties of shape components, and relates them to learned underlying causes of structural variability within the domain. These causes are treated as latent variables, leading to a compact representation that can be effectively learned without supervision from a set of compatibly segmented shapes. We evaluate the model on a number of shape datasets with complex structural variability and demonstrate its application to amplification of shape databases and to interactive shape synthesis. © 2012 ACM 0730-0301/2012/08-ART55.
Automating 3D reconstruction using a probabilistic grammar
Xiong, Hanwei; Xu, Jun; Xu, Chenxi; Pan, Ming
2015-10-01
3D reconstruction of objects from point clouds with a laser scanner is still a laborious task in many applications. Automating 3D process is an ongoing research topic and suffers from the complex structure of the data. The main difficulty is due to lack of knowledge of real world objects structure. In this paper, we accumulate such structure knowledge by a probabilistic grammar learned from examples in the same category. The rules of the grammar capture compositional structures at different levels, and a feature dependent probability function is attached for every rule. The learned grammar can be used to parse new 3D point clouds, organize segment patches in a hierarchal way, and assign them meaningful labels. The parsed semantics can be used to guide the reconstruction algorithms automatically. Some examples are given to explain the method.
New probabilistic interest measures for association rules
Hahsler, Michael; Hornik, Kurt
2008-01-01
Mining association rules is an important technique for discovering meaningful patterns in transaction databases. Many different measures of interestingness have been proposed for association rules. However, these measures fail to take the probabilistic properties of the mined data into account. In this paper, we start with presenting a simple probabilistic framework for transaction data which can be used to simulate transaction data when no associations are present. We use such data and a rea...
Semantics of probabilistic processes an operational approach
Deng, Yuxin
2015-01-01
This book discusses the semantic foundations of concurrent systems with nondeterministic and probabilistic behaviour. Particular attention is given to clarifying the relationship between testing and simulation semantics and characterising bisimulations from metric, logical, and algorithmic perspectives. Besides presenting recent research outcomes in probabilistic concurrency theory, the book exemplifies the use of many mathematical techniques to solve problems in computer science, which is intended to be accessible to postgraduate students in Computer Science and Mathematics. It can also be us
Probabilistic cloning of three symmetric states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jimenez, O.; Bergou, J.; Delgado, A.
2010-01-01
We study the probabilistic cloning of three symmetric states. These states are defined by a single complex quantity, the inner product among them. We show that three different probabilistic cloning machines are necessary to optimally clone all possible families of three symmetric states. We also show that the optimal cloning probability of generating M copies out of one original can be cast as the quotient between the success probability of unambiguously discriminating one and M copies of symmetric states.
Probabilistic Analysis Methods for Hybrid Ventilation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brohus, Henrik; Frier, Christian; Heiselberg, Per
This paper discusses a general approach for the application of probabilistic analysis methods in the design of ventilation systems. The aims and scope of probabilistic versus deterministic methods are addressed with special emphasis on hybrid ventilation systems. A preliminary application...... of stochastic differential equations is presented comprising a general heat balance for an arbitrary number of loads and zones in a building to determine the thermal behaviour under random conditions....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Machado, Daniel; Herrgard, Markus; Rocha, Isabel
2016-01-01
only describe the metabolic phenotype at the reaction level, understanding the mechanistic link between genotype and phenotype is still hampered by the complexity of gene-protein-reaction associations. We implement a model transformation that enables constraint-based methods to be applied at the gene...... design methods are not actually feasible, and show how our approach allows using the same methods to obtain feasible gene-based designs. We also show, by extensive comparison with experimental 13C-flux data, how simple reformulations of different simulation methods with gene-wise objective functions...
Probabilistic causality and radiogenic cancers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Groeer, P.G.
1986-01-01
A review and scrutiny of the literature on probability and probabilistic causality shows that it is possible under certain assumptions to estimate the probability that a certain type of cancer diagnosed in an individual exposed to radiation prior to diagnosis was caused by this exposure. Diagnosis of this causal relationship like diagnosis of any disease - malignant or not - requires always some subjective judgments by the diagnostician. It is, therefore, illusory to believe that tables based on actuarial data can provide objective estimates of the chance that a cancer diagnosed in an individual is radiogenic. It is argued that such tables can only provide a base from which the diagnostician(s) deviate in one direction or the other according to his (their) individual (consensual) judgment. Acceptance of a physician's diagnostic judgment by patients is commonplace. Similar widespread acceptance of expert judgment by claimants in radiation compensation cases does presently not exist. Judicious use of the present radioepidemiological tables prepared by the Working Group of the National Institutes of Health or of updated future versions of similar tables may improve the situation. 20 references
Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2014-03-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.
Computing Distances between Probabilistic Automata
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mathieu Tracol
2011-07-01
Full Text Available We present relaxed notions of simulation and bisimulation on Probabilistic Automata (PA, that allow some error epsilon. When epsilon is zero we retrieve the usual notions of bisimulation and simulation on PAs. We give logical characterisations of these notions by choosing suitable logics which differ from the elementary ones, L with negation and L without negation, by the modal operator. Using flow networks, we show how to compute the relations in PTIME. This allows the definition of an efficiently computable non-discounted distance between the states of a PA. A natural modification of this distance is introduced, to obtain a discounted distance, which weakens the influence of long term transitions. We compare our notions of distance to others previously defined and illustrate our approach on various examples. We also show that our distance is not expansive with respect to process algebra operators. Although L without negation is a suitable logic to characterise epsilon-(bisimulation on deterministic PAs, it is not for general PAs; interestingly, we prove that it does characterise weaker notions, called a priori epsilon-(bisimulation, which we prove to be NP-difficult to decide.
Probabilistic modeling of children's handwriting
Puri, Mukta; Srihari, Sargur N.; Hanson, Lisa
2013-12-01
There is little work done in the analysis of children's handwriting, which can be useful in developing automatic evaluation systems and in quantifying handwriting individuality. We consider the statistical analysis of children's handwriting in early grades. Samples of handwriting of children in Grades 2-4 who were taught the Zaner-Bloser style were considered. The commonly occurring word "and" written in cursive style as well as hand-print were extracted from extended writing. The samples were assigned feature values by human examiners using a truthing tool. The human examiners looked at how the children constructed letter formations in their writing, looking for similarities and differences from the instructions taught in the handwriting copy book. These similarities and differences were measured using a feature space distance measure. Results indicate that the handwriting develops towards more conformity with the class characteristics of the Zaner-Bloser copybook which, with practice, is the expected result. Bayesian networks were learnt from the data to enable answering various probabilistic queries, such as determining students who may continue to produce letter formations as taught during lessons in school and determining the students who will develop a different and/or variation of the those letter formations and the number of different types of letter formations.
Probabilistic description of traffic flow
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mahnke, R.; Kaupuzs, J.; Lubashevsky, I.
2005-01-01
A stochastic description of traffic flow, called probabilistic traffic flow theory, is developed. The general master equation is applied to relatively simple models to describe the formation and dissolution of traffic congestions. Our approach is mainly based on spatially homogeneous systems like periodically closed circular rings without on- and off-ramps. We consider a stochastic one-step process of growth or shrinkage of a car cluster (jam). As generalization we discuss the coexistence of several car clusters of different sizes. The basic problem is to find a physically motivated ansatz for the transition rates of the attachment and detachment of individual cars to a car cluster consistent with the empirical observations in real traffic. The emphasis is put on the analogy with first-order phase transitions and nucleation phenomena in physical systems like supersaturated vapour. The results are summarized in the flux-density relation, the so-called fundamental diagram of traffic flow, and compared with empirical data. Different regimes of traffic flow are discussed: free flow, congested mode as stop-and-go regime, and heavy viscous traffic. The traffic breakdown is studied based on the master equation as well as the Fokker-Planck approximation to calculate mean first passage times or escape rates. Generalizations are developed to allow for on-ramp effects. The calculated flux-density relation and characteristic breakdown times coincide with empirical data measured on highways. Finally, a brief summary of the stochastic cellular automata approach is given
Distribution functions of probabilistic automata
Vatan, F.
2001-01-01
Each probabilistic automaton M over an alphabet A defines a probability measure Prob sub(M) on the set of all finite and infinite words over A. We can identify a k letter alphabet A with the set {0, 1,..., k-1}, and, hence, we can consider every finite or infinite word w over A as a radix k expansion of a real number X(w) in the interval [0, 1]. This makes X(w) a random variable and the distribution function of M is defined as usual: F(x) := Prob sub(M) { w: X(w) automata in detail. Automata with continuous distribution functions are characterized. By a new, and much more easier method, it is shown that the distribution function F(x) is an analytic function if it is a polynomial. Finally, answering a question posed by D. Knuth and A. Yao, we show that a polynomial distribution function F(x) on [0, 1] can be generated by a prob abilistic automaton iff all the roots of F'(x) = 0 in this interval, if any, are rational numbers. For this, we define two dynamical systems on the set of polynomial distributions and study attracting fixed points of random composition of these two systems.
Probabilistic transport models for fusion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Milligen, B.Ph. van; Carreras, B.A.; Lynch, V.E.; Sanchez, R.
2005-01-01
A generalization of diffusive (Fickian) transport is considered, in which particle motion is described by probability distributions. We design a simple model that includes a critical mechanism to switch between two transport channels, and show that it exhibits various interesting characteristics, suggesting that the ideas of probabilistic transport might provide a framework for the description of a range of unusual transport phenomena observed in fusion plasmas. The model produces power degradation and profile consistency, as well as a scaling of the confinement time with system size reminiscent of the gyro-Bohm/Bohm scalings observed in fusion plasmas, and rapid propagation of disturbances. In the present work we show how this model may also produce on-axis peaking of the profiles with off-axis fuelling. It is important to note that the fluid limit of a simple model like this, characterized by two transport channels, does not correspond to the usual (Fickian) transport models commonly used for modelling transport in fusion plasmas, and behaves in a fundamentally different way. (author)
Prospects for probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirschberg, S.
1992-01-01
This article provides some reflections on future developments of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in view of the present state of the art and evaluates current trends in the use of PSA for safety management. The main emphasis is on Level 1 PSA, although Level 2 aspects are also highlighted to some extent. As a starting point, the role of PSA is outlined from a historical perspective, demonstrating the rapid expansion of the uses of PSA. In this context the wide spectrum of PSA applications and the associated benefits to the users are in focus. It should be kept in mind, however, that PSA, in spite of its merits, is not a self-standing safety tool. It complements deterministic analysis and thus improves understanding and facilitating prioritization of safety issues. Significant progress in handling PSA limitations - such as reliability data, common-cause failures, human interactions, external events, accident progression, containment performance, and source-term issues - is described. This forms a background for expected future developments of PSA. Among the most important issues on the agenda for the future are PSA scope extensions, methodological improvements and computer code advancements, and full exploitation of the potential benefits of applications to operational safety management. Many PSA uses, if properly exercised, lead to safety improvements as well as major burden reductions. The article provides, in addition, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) perspective on the topics covered, as reflected in the current PSA programs of the agency. 74 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mata, Jonatas F.C. da; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Mesquita, Amir Z., E-mail: jonatasfmata@yahoo.com.br, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: amir@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)
2015-07-01
The nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi, occurred in Japan in 2011, brought reflections, worldwide, on the management of nuclear and environmental licensing processes of existing nuclear reactors. One of the key lessons learned in this matter, is that the studies of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Severe Accidents are becoming essential, even in the early stage of a nuclear development project. In Brazil, Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission, CNEN, conducts the nuclear licensing. The organism responsible for the environmental licensing is Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, IBAMA. In the scope of the licensing processes of these two institutions, the safety analysis is essentially deterministic, complemented by probabilistic studies. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the study performed to evaluate the behavior of the nuclear reactor in a sequence of events that may lead to the melting of its core. It includes both probability and consequence estimation of these events, which are called Severe Accidents, allowing to obtain the risk assessment of the plant. Thus, the possible shortcomings in the design of systems are identified, providing basis for safety assessment and improving safety. During the environmental licensing, a Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA), including probabilistic evaluations, is required in order to support the development of the Risk Analysis Study, the Risk Management Program and the Emergency Plan. This article aims to provide an overview of probabilistic risk assessment methodologies and their applications in nuclear and environmental licensing processes of nuclear reactors in Brazil. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mata, Jonatas F.C. da; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Mesquita, Amir Z.
2015-01-01
The nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi, occurred in Japan in 2011, brought reflections, worldwide, on the management of nuclear and environmental licensing processes of existing nuclear reactors. One of the key lessons learned in this matter, is that the studies of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Severe Accidents are becoming essential, even in the early stage of a nuclear development project. In Brazil, Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission, CNEN, conducts the nuclear licensing. The organism responsible for the environmental licensing is Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, IBAMA. In the scope of the licensing processes of these two institutions, the safety analysis is essentially deterministic, complemented by probabilistic studies. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the study performed to evaluate the behavior of the nuclear reactor in a sequence of events that may lead to the melting of its core. It includes both probability and consequence estimation of these events, which are called Severe Accidents, allowing to obtain the risk assessment of the plant. Thus, the possible shortcomings in the design of systems are identified, providing basis for safety assessment and improving safety. During the environmental licensing, a Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA), including probabilistic evaluations, is required in order to support the development of the Risk Analysis Study, the Risk Management Program and the Emergency Plan. This article aims to provide an overview of probabilistic risk assessment methodologies and their applications in nuclear and environmental licensing processes of nuclear reactors in Brazil. (author)
Probabilistic graphs as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management
Schoups, Gerrit
2014-05-01
Originally developed in the fields of machine learning and artificial intelligence, probabilistic graphs constitute a general framework for modeling complex systems in the presence of uncertainty. The framework consists of three components: 1. Representation of the model as a graph (or network), with nodes depicting random variables in the model (e.g. parameters, states, etc), which are joined together by factors. Factors are local probabilistic or deterministic relations between subsets of variables, which, when multiplied together, yield the joint distribution over all variables. 2. Consistent use of probability theory for quantifying uncertainty, relying on basic rules of probability for assimilating data into the model and expressing unknown variables as a function of observations (via the posterior distribution). 3. Efficient, distributed approximation of the posterior distribution using general-purpose algorithms that exploit model structure encoded in the graph. These attributes make probabilistic graphs potentially useful as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management (and beyond). Conceptually, they can provide a common framework for existing and new probabilistic modeling approaches (e.g. by drawing inspiration from other fields of application), while computationally they can make probabilistic inference feasible in larger hydrological models. The presentation explores, via examples, some of these benefits.
Fatimah, F.; Rosadi, D.; Hakim, R. B. F.
2018-03-01
In this paper, we motivate and introduce probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets for handling decision making problem in the presence of positive and negative parameters. We propose several types of algorithms related to this problem. Our procedures are flexible and adaptable. An example on real data is also given.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maryam Iman
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Microbial remediation of nitroaromatic compounds (NACs is a promising environmentally friendly and cost-effective approach to the removal of these life-threating agents. Escherichia coli (E. coli has shown remarkable capability for the biotransformation of 2,4,6-trinitro-toluene (TNT. Efforts to develop E. coli as an efficient TNT degrading biocatalyst will benefit from holistic flux-level description of interactions between multiple TNT transforming pathways operating in the strain. To gain such an insight, we extended the genome-scale constraint-based model of E. coli to account for a curated version of major TNT transformation pathways known or evidently hypothesized to be active in E. coli in present of TNT. Using constraint-based analysis (CBA methods, we then performed several series of in silico experiments to elucidate the contribution of these pathways individually or in combination to the E. coli TNT transformation capacity. Results of our analyses were validated by replicating several experimentally observed TNT degradation phenotypes in E. coli cultures. We further used the extended model to explore the influence of process parameters, including aeration regime, TNT concentration, cell density, and carbon source on TNT degradation efficiency. We also conducted an in silico metabolic engineering study to design a series of E. coli mutants capable of degrading TNT at higher yield compared with the wild-type strain. Our study, therefore, extends the application of CBA to bioremediation of nitroaromatics and demonstrates the usefulness of this approach to inform bioremediation research.
The probabilistic innovation theoretical framework
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chris W. Callaghan
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Background: Despite technological advances that offer new opportunities for solving societal problems in real time, knowledge management theory development has largely not kept pace with these developments. This article seeks to offer useful insights into how more effective theory development in this area could be enabled. Aim: This article suggests different streams of literature for inclusion into a theoretical framework for an emerging stream of research, termed ‘probabilistic innovation’, which seeks to develop a system of real-time research capability. The objective of this research is therefore to provide a synthesis of a range of diverse literatures, and to provide useful insights into how research enabled by crowdsourced research and development can potentially be used to address serious knowledge problems in real time. Setting: This research suggests that knowledge management theory can provide an anchor for a new stream of research contributing to the development of real-time knowledge problem solving. Methods: This conceptual article seeks to re-conceptualise the problem of real-time research and locate this knowledge problem in relation to a host of rapidly developing streams of literature. In doing so, a novel perspective of societal problem-solving is enabled. Results: An analysis of theory and literature suggests that certain rapidly developing streams of literature might more effectively contribute to societally important real-time research problem solving if these steams are united under a theoretical framework with this goal as its explicit focus. Conclusion: Although the goal of real-time research is as yet not attainable, research that contributes to its attainment may ultimately make an important contribution to society.
Evaluating bacterial gene-finding HMM structures as probabilistic logic programs.
Mørk, Søren; Holmes, Ian
2012-03-01
Probabilistic logic programming offers a powerful way to describe and evaluate structured statistical models. To investigate the practicality of probabilistic logic programming for structure learning in bioinformatics, we undertook a simplified bacterial gene-finding benchmark in PRISM, a probabilistic dialect of Prolog. We evaluate Hidden Markov Model structures for bacterial protein-coding gene potential, including a simple null model structure, three structures based on existing bacterial gene finders and two novel model structures. We test standard versions as well as ADPH length modeling and three-state versions of the five model structures. The models are all represented as probabilistic logic programs and evaluated using the PRISM machine learning system in terms of statistical information criteria and gene-finding prediction accuracy, in two bacterial genomes. Neither of our implementations of the two currently most used model structures are best performing in terms of statistical information criteria or prediction performances, suggesting that better-fitting models might be achievable. The source code of all PRISM models, data and additional scripts are freely available for download at: http://github.com/somork/codonhmm. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.
Raftery, Adrian E
2016-12-01
Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don't need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications.
Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts
Raftery, Adrian E.
2015-01-01
Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don’t need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications. PMID:28446941
Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations.
Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A; Girolami, Mark
2015-07-08
We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods : algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.
Probabilistic Prognosis of Non-Planar Fatigue Crack Growth
Leser, Patrick E.; Newman, John A.; Warner, James E.; Leser, William P.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.; Yuan, Fuh-Gwo
2016-01-01
Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters for the purpose of damage prognosis can be accomplished utilizing Bayesian inference and damage diagnosis data from sources such as non-destructive evaluation or structural health monitoring. The number of samples required to solve the Bayesian inverse problem through common sampling techniques (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo) renders high-fidelity finite element-based damage growth models unusable due to prohibitive computation times. However, these types of models are often the only option when attempting to model complex damage growth in real-world structures. Here, a recently developed high-fidelity crack growth model is used which, when compared to finite element-based modeling, has demonstrated reductions in computation times of three orders of magnitude through the use of surrogate models and machine learning. The model is flexible in that only the expensive computation of the crack driving forces is replaced by the surrogate models, leaving the remaining parameters accessible for uncertainty quantification. A probabilistic prognosis framework incorporating this model is developed and demonstrated for non-planar crack growth in a modified, edge-notched, aluminum tensile specimen. Predictions of remaining useful life are made over time for five updates of the damage diagnosis data, and prognostic metrics are utilized to evaluate the performance of the prognostic framework. Challenges specific to the probabilistic prognosis of non-planar fatigue crack growth are highlighted and discussed in the context of the experimental results.
bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections
Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.
2016-01-01
We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933
Probabilistic Modeling and Visualization for Bankruptcy Prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Antunes, Francisco; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco Camara
2017-01-01
In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful...... studies on bankruptcy detection, seldom probabilistic approaches were carried out. In this paper we assume a probabilistic point-of-view by applying Gaussian Processes (GP) in the context of bankruptcy prediction, comparing it against the Support Vector Machines (SVM) and the Logistic Regression (LR......). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical...
Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cooke, Roger M.; Nauta, Maarten; Havelaar, Arie H.; Fels, Ine van der
2006-01-01
We discuss an application of probabilistic inversion techniques to a model of campylobacter transmission in chicken processing lines. Such techniques are indicated when we wish to quantify a model which is new and perhaps unfamiliar to the expert community. In this case there are no measurements for estimating model parameters, and experts are typically unable to give a considered judgment. In such cases, experts are asked to quantify their uncertainty regarding variables which can be predicted by the model. The experts' distributions (after combination) are then pulled back onto the parameter space of the model, a process termed 'probabilistic inversion'. This study illustrates two such techniques, iterative proportional fitting (IPF) and PARmeter fitting for uncertain models (PARFUM). In addition, we illustrate how expert judgement on predicted observable quantities in combination with probabilistic inversion may be used for model validation and/or model criticism
Scalable group level probabilistic sparse factor analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hinrich, Jesper Løve; Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Riis, Nicolai Andre Brogaard
2017-01-01
Many data-driven approaches exist to extract neural representations of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, but most of them lack a proper probabilistic formulation. We propose a scalable group level probabilistic sparse factor analysis (psFA) allowing spatially sparse maps, component...... pruning using automatic relevance determination (ARD) and subject specific heteroscedastic spatial noise modeling. For task-based and resting state fMRI, we show that the sparsity constraint gives rise to components similar to those obtained by group independent component analysis. The noise modeling...... shows that noise is reduced in areas typically associated with activation by the experimental design. The psFA model identifies sparse components and the probabilistic setting provides a natural way to handle parameter uncertainties. The variational Bayesian framework easily extends to more complex...
bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hana Ševčíková
2016-12-01
Full Text Available We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects.
Probabilistic Design of Wave Energy Devices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Ferreira, C.B.
2011-01-01
Wave energy has a large potential for contributing significantly to production of renewable energy. However, the wave energy sector is still not able to deliver cost competitive and reliable solutions. But the sector has already demonstrated several proofs of concepts. The design of wave energy...... devices is a new and expanding technical area where there is no tradition for probabilistic design—in fact very little full scale devices has been build to date, so it can be said that no design tradition really exists in this area. For this reason it is considered to be of great importance to develop...... and advocate for a probabilistic design approach, as it is assumed (in other areas this has been demonstrated) that this leads to more economical designs compared to designs based on deterministic methods. In the present paper a general framework for probabilistic design and reliability analysis of wave energy...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ming Li
2018-06-01
Full Text Available The effective prediction of storm track (ST is greatly beneficial for analyzing the development and anomalies of mid-latitude weather systems. For the non-stationarity, nonlinearity, and uncertainty of ST intensity index (STII, a new probabilistic prediction model was proposed based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN and wavelet analysis (WA. We introduced probability theory and graph theory for the first time to quantitatively describe the nonlinear relationship and uncertain interaction of the ST system. Then a casual prediction network (i.e., DBN was constructed through wavelet decomposition, structural learning, parameter learning, and probabilistic inference, which was used for expression of relation among predictors and probabilistic prediction of STII. The intensity prediction of the North Pacific ST with data from 1961–2010 showed that the new model was able to give more comprehensive prediction information and higher prediction accuracy and had strong generalization ability and good stability.
Probabilistic Damage Stability Calculations for Ships
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jørgen Juncher
1996-01-01
The aim of these notes is to provide background material for the present probabilistic damage stability rules fro dry cargo ships.The formulas for the damage statistics are derived and shortcomings as well as possible improvements are discussed. The advantage of the definiton of fictitious...... compartments in the formulation of a computer-based general procedure for probabilistic damaged stability assessment is shown. Some comments are given on the current state of knowledge on the ship survivability in damaged conditions. Finally, problems regarding proper account of water ingress through openings...
Quantum logic networks for probabilistic teleportation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
刘金明; 张永生; 等
2003-01-01
By eans of the primitive operations consisting of single-qubit gates.two-qubit controlled-not gates,Von Neuman measurement and classically controlled operations.,we construct efficient quantum logic networks for implementing probabilistic teleportation of a single qubit,a two-particle entangled state,and an N-particle entanglement.Based on the quantum networks,we show that after the partially entangled states are concentrated into maximal entanglement,the above three kinds of probabilistic teleportation are the same as the standard teleportation using the corresponding maximally entangled states as the quantum channels.
Probabilistic Durability Analysis in Advanced Engineering Design
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Kudzys
2000-01-01
Full Text Available Expedience of probabilistic durability concepts and approaches in advanced engineering design of building materials, structural members and systems is considered. Target margin values of structural safety and serviceability indices are analyzed and their draft values are presented. Analytical methods of the cumulative coefficient of correlation and the limit transient action effect for calculation of reliability indices are given. Analysis can be used for probabilistic durability assessment of carrying and enclosure metal, reinforced concrete, wood, plastic, masonry both homogeneous and sandwich or composite structures and some kinds of equipments. Analysis models can be applied in other engineering fields.
Probabilistic Design of Offshore Structural Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
1988-01-01
Probabilistic design of structural systems is considered in this paper. The reliability is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements...... satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement. Based on a sensitivity analysis optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability-based optimization problem sequentially using quasi......-analytical derivatives. Finally an example of probabilistic design of an offshore structure is considered....
Probabilistic Design of Offshore Structural Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
Probabilistic design of structural systems is considered in this paper. The reliability is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). The design problem is formulated as the optimization problem to minimize a given cost function such that the reliability of the single elements...... satisfies given requirements or such that the systems reliability satisfies a given requirement. Based on a sensitivity analysis optimization procedures to solve the optimization problems are presented. Two of these procedures solve the system reliability-based optimization problem sequentially using quasi......-analytical derivatives. Finally an example of probabilistic design of an offshore structure is considered....
Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.
1985-01-01
This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions
Probabilistic calculation of dose commitment from uranium mill tailings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1983-10-01
The report discusses in a general way considerations of uncertainty in relation to probabilistic modelling. An example of a probabilistic calculation applied to the behaviour of uranium mill tailings is given
Probabilistic inversion in priority setting of emerging zoonoses.
Kurowicka, D.; Bucura, C.; Cooke, R.; Havelaar, A.H.
2010-01-01
This article presents methodology of applying probabilistic inversion in combination with expert judgment in priority setting problem. Experts rank scenarios according to severity. A linear multi-criteria analysis model underlying the expert preferences is posited. Using probabilistic inversion, a
Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.
1989-11-01
A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs
Arbitrage and Hedging in a non probabilistic framework
Alvarez, Alexander; Ferrando, Sebastian; Olivares, Pablo
2011-01-01
The paper studies the concepts of hedging and arbitrage in a non probabilistic framework. It provides conditions for non probabilistic arbitrage based on the topological structure of the trajectory space and makes connections with the usual notion of arbitrage. Several examples illustrate the non probabilistic arbitrage as well perfect replication of options under continuous and discontinuous trajectories, the results can then be applied in probabilistic models path by path. The approach is r...
A common fixed point for operators in probabilistic normed spaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghaemi, M.B.; Lafuerza-Guillen, Bernardo; Razani, A.
2009-01-01
Probabilistic Metric spaces was introduced by Karl Menger. Alsina, Schweizer and Sklar gave a general definition of probabilistic normed space based on the definition of Menger [Alsina C, Schweizer B, Sklar A. On the definition of a probabilistic normed spaces. Aequationes Math 1993;46:91-8]. Here, we consider the equicontinuity of a class of linear operators in probabilistic normed spaces and finally, a common fixed point theorem is proved. Application to quantum Mechanic is considered.
Probabilistic Modeling of Aircraft Trajectories for Dynamic Separation Volumes
Lewis, Timothy A.
2016-01-01
With a proliferation of new and unconventional vehicles and operations expected in the future, the ab initio airspace design will require new approaches to trajectory prediction for separation assurance and other air traffic management functions. This paper presents an approach to probabilistic modeling of the trajectory of an aircraft when its intent is unknown. The approach uses a set of feature functions to constrain a maximum entropy probability distribution based on a set of observed aircraft trajectories. This model can be used to sample new aircraft trajectories to form an ensemble reflecting the variability in an aircraft's intent. The model learning process ensures that the variability in this ensemble reflects the behavior observed in the original data set. Computational examples are presented.
Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wan, Can; Song, Yonghua; Xu, Zhao
2016-01-01
probabilities of prediction errors provide an alternative yet effective solution. This article proposes a hybrid artificial neural network approach to generate prediction intervals of wind power. An extreme learning machine is applied to conduct point prediction of wind power and estimate model uncertainties...... via a bootstrap technique. Subsequently, the maximum likelihood estimation method is employed to construct a distinct neural network to estimate the noise variance of forecasting results. The proposed approach has been tested on multi-step forecasting of high-resolution (10-min) wind power using...... actual wind power data from Denmark. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid artificial neural network approach is effective and efficient for probabilistic forecasting of wind power and has high potential in practical applications....
Symmetric nonnegative matrix factorization: algorithms and applications to probabilistic clustering.
He, Zhaoshui; Xie, Shengli; Zdunek, Rafal; Zhou, Guoxu; Cichocki, Andrzej
2011-12-01
Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) is an unsupervised learning method useful in various applications including image processing and semantic analysis of documents. This paper focuses on symmetric NMF (SNMF), which is a special case of NMF decomposition. Three parallel multiplicative update algorithms using level 3 basic linear algebra subprograms directly are developed for this problem. First, by minimizing the Euclidean distance, a multiplicative update algorithm is proposed, and its convergence under mild conditions is proved. Based on it, we further propose another two fast parallel methods: α-SNMF and β -SNMF algorithms. All of them are easy to implement. These algorithms are applied to probabilistic clustering. We demonstrate their effectiveness for facial image clustering, document categorization, and pattern clustering in gene expression.
Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography
Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Cord, Anna F; Kessler, Michael; Kreft, Holger; Kühn, Ingolf; Pompe, Sven; Sandel, Brody; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Smith, Adam B; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Tuomisto, Hanna; Weigelt, Patrick; Wesche, Karsten
2016-01-01
Aim To provide a mechanistic and probabilistic framework for defining the species pool based on species-specific probabilities of dispersal, environmental suitability and biotic interactions within a specific temporal extent, and to show how probabilistic species pools can help disentangle the geographical structure of different community assembly processes. Innovation Probabilistic species pools provide an improved species pool definition based on probabilities in conjuncti...
Probabilistic analysis of tokamak plasma disruptions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sanzo, D.L.; Apostolakis, G.E.
1985-01-01
An approximate analytical solution to the heat conduction equations used in modeling component melting and vaporization resulting from plasma disruptions is presented. This solution is then used to propagate uncertainties in the input data characterizing disruptions, namely, energy density and disruption time, to obtain a probabilistic description of the output variables of interest, material melted and vaporized. (orig.)
Strong Ideal Convergence in Probabilistic Metric Spaces
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
In the present paper we introduce the concepts of strongly ideal convergent sequence and strong ideal Cauchy sequence in a probabilistic metric (PM) space endowed with the strong topology, and establish some basic facts. Next, we define the strong ideal limit points and the strong ideal cluster points of a sequence in this ...
Quantum Probabilistic Dyadic Second-Order Logic
Baltag, A.; Bergfeld, J.M.; Kishida, K.; Sack, J.; Smets, S.J.L.; Zhong, S.; Libkin, L.; Kohlenbach, U.; de Queiroz, R.
2013-01-01
We propose an expressive but decidable logic for reasoning about quantum systems. The logic is endowed with tensor operators to capture properties of composite systems, and with probabilistic predication formulas P ≥ r (s), saying that a quantum system in state s will yield the answer ‘yes’ (i.e.
Probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure
Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.; Fossum, A. F.
1990-01-01
A probabilistic finite element program is used to perform probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure. The program used in this study is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), under development at Southwest Research Institute. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the radial stress of a thick-walled cylinder under internal pressure is computed and compared with the analytical solution. In addition, sensitivity factors showing the relative importance of the input random variables are calculated. Significant plasticity is present in this problem and has a pronounced effect on the probabilistic results. The random input variables are the material yield stress and internal pressure with Weibull and normal distributions, respectively. The results verify the ability of NESSUS to compute the CDF and sensitivity factors of a materially nonlinear structure. In addition, the ability of the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) procedure to assess the probabilistic behavior of structures which exhibit a highly nonlinear response is shown. Thus, the AMV procedure can be applied with confidence to other structures which exhibit nonlinear behavior.
Probabilistic Programming : A True Verification Challenge
Katoen, Joost P.; Finkbeiner, Bernd; Pu, Geguang; Zhang, Lijun
2015-01-01
Probabilistic programs [6] are sequential programs, written in languages like C, Java, Scala, or ML, with two added constructs: (1) the ability to draw values at random from probability distributions, and (2) the ability to condition values of variables in a program through observations. For a
Probabilistic calculation for angular dependence collision
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Villarino, E.A.
1990-01-01
This collision probabilistic method is broadly used in cylindrical geometry (in one- or two-dimensions). It constitutes a powerful tool for the heterogeneous Response Method where, the coupling current is of the cosine type, that is, without angular dependence at azimuthal angle θ and proportional to μ (cosine of the θ polar angle). (Author) [es
Probabilistic safety assessment in radioactive waste disposal
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Robinson, P.C.
1987-07-01
Probabilistic safety assessment codes are now widely used in radioactive waste disposal assessments. This report gives an overview of the current state of the field. The relationship between the codes and the regulations covering radioactive waste disposal is discussed and the characteristics of current codes is described. The problems of verification and validation are considered. (author)
Probabilistic fuzzy systems as additive fuzzy systems
Almeida, R.J.; Verbeek, N.; Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.; Laurent, A.; Strauss, O.; Bouchon-Meunier, B.; Yager, R.
2014-01-01
Probabilistic fuzzy systems combine a linguistic description of the system behaviour with statistical properties of data. It was originally derived based on Zadeh’s concept of probability of a fuzzy event. Two possible and equivalent additive reasoning schemes were proposed, that lead to the
A Geometric Presentation of Probabilistic Satisfiability
Morales-Luna, Guillermo
2010-01-01
By considering probability distributions over the set of assignments the expected truth values assignment to propositional variables are extended through linear operators, and the expected truth values of the clauses at any given conjunctive form are also extended through linear maps. The probabilistic satisfiability problems are discussed in terms of the introduced linear extensions. The case of multiple truth values is also discussed.
Probabilistic studies for a safety assurance program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iyer, S.S.; Davis, J.F.
1985-01-01
The adequate supply of energy is always a matter of concern for any country. Nuclear power has played, and will continue to play an important role in supplying this energy. However, safety in nuclear power production is a fundamental prerequisite in fulfilling this role. This paper outlines a program to ensure safe operation of a nuclear power plant utilizing the Probabilistic Safety Studies
Probabilistic safety goals. Phase 3 - Status report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Holmberg, J.-E. (VTT (Finland)); Knochenhauer, M. (Relcon Scandpower AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden))
2009-07-15
The first phase of the project (2006) described the status, concepts and history of probabilistic safety goals for nuclear power plants. The second and third phases (2007-2008) have provided guidance related to the resolution of some of the problems identified, and resulted in a common understanding regarding the definition of safety goals. The basic aim of phase 3 (2009) has been to increase the scope and level of detail of the project, and to start preparations of a guidance document. Based on the conclusions from the previous project phases, the following issues have been covered: 1) Extension of international overview. Analysis of results from the questionnaire performed within the ongoing OECD/NEA WGRISK activity on probabilistic safety criteria, including participation in the preparation of the working report for OECD/NEA/WGRISK (to be finalised in phase 4). 2) Use of subsidiary criteria and relations between these (to be finalised in phase 4). 3) Numerical criteria when using probabilistic analyses in support of deterministic safety analysis (to be finalised in phase 4). 4) Guidance for the formulation, application and interpretation of probabilistic safety criteria (to be finalised in phase 4). (LN)
Safety Verification for Probabilistic Hybrid Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhang, Lijun; She, Zhikun; Ratschan, Stefan
2010-01-01
The interplay of random phenomena and continuous real-time control deserves increased attention for instance in wireless sensing and control applications. Safety verification for such systems thus needs to consider probabilistic variations of systems with hybrid dynamics. In safety verification o...... on a number of case studies, tackled using a prototypical implementation....
Ambient Surveillance by Probabilistic-Possibilistic Perception
Bittermann, M.S.; Ciftcioglu, O.
2013-01-01
A method for quantifying ambient surveillance is presented, which is based on probabilistic-possibilistic perception. The human surveillance of a scene through observing camera sensed images on a monitor is modeled in three steps. First immersion of the observer is simulated by modeling perception
HERMES probabilistic risk assessment. Pilot study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parisot, F.; Munoz, J.
1993-01-01
The study was performed in 1989 of the contribution of probabilistic analysis for the optimal construction of system safety status in aeronautical and European nuclear industries, shows the growing trends towards incorporation of quantitative safety assessment and lead to an agreement to undertake a prototype proof study on Hermes. The main steps of the study and results are presented in the paper
Some probabilistic properties of fractional point processes
Garra, Roberto; Orsingher, Enzo; Scavino, Marco
2017-01-01
P{T-k(alpha) < infinity} are explicitly obtained and analyzed. The processes N-f (t) are time-changed Poisson processes N( H-f (t)) with subordinators H-f (t) and here we study N(Sigma H-n(j= 1)f j (t)) and obtain probabilistic features
Strong Statistical Convergence in Probabilistic Metric Spaces
Şençimen, Celaleddin; Pehlivan, Serpil
2008-01-01
In this article, we introduce the concepts of strongly statistically convergent sequence and strong statistically Cauchy sequence in a probabilistic metric (PM) space endowed with the strong topology, and establish some basic facts. Next, we define the strong statistical limit points and the strong statistical cluster points of a sequence in this space and investigate the relations between these concepts.
Effectiveness of Securities with Fuzzy Probabilistic Return
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Krzysztof Piasecki
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The generalized fuzzy present value of a security is defined here as fuzzy valued utility of cash flow. The generalized fuzzy present value cannot depend on the value of future cash flow. There exists such a generalized fuzzy present value which is not a fuzzy present value in the sense given by some authors. If the present value is a fuzzy number and the future value is a random one, then the return rate is given as a probabilistic fuzzy subset on a real line. This kind of return rate is called a fuzzy probabilistic return. The main goal of this paper is to derive the family of effective securities with fuzzy probabilistic return. Achieving this goal requires the study of the basic parameters characterizing fuzzy probabilistic return. Therefore, fuzzy expected value and variance are determined for this case of return. These results are a starting point for constructing a three-dimensional image. The set of effective securities is introduced as the Pareto optimal set determined by the maximization of the expected return rate and minimization of the variance. Finally, the set of effective securities is distinguished as a fuzzy set. These results are obtained without the assumption that the distribution of future values is Gaussian. (original abstract
Dialectical Multivalued Logic and Probabilistic Theory
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Luis Usó Doménech
2017-02-01
Full Text Available There are two probabilistic algebras: one for classical probability and the other for quantum mechanics. Naturally, it is the relation to the object that decides, as in the case of logic, which algebra is to be used. From a paraconsistent multivalued logic therefore, one can derive a probability theory, adding the correspondence between truth value and fortuity.
Revisiting the formal foundation of Probabilistic Databases
Wanders, B.; van Keulen, Maurice
2015-01-01
One of the core problems in soft computing is dealing with uncertainty in data. In this paper, we revisit the formal foundation of a class of probabilistic databases with the purpose to (1) obtain data model independence, (2) separate metadata on uncertainty and probabilities from the raw data, (3)
Probabilistic Resource Analysis by Program Transformation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kirkeby, Maja Hanne; Rosendahl, Mads
2016-01-01
The aim of a probabilistic resource analysis is to derive a probability distribution of possible resource usage for a program from a probability distribution of its input. We present an automated multi-phase rewriting based method to analyze programs written in a subset of C. It generates...
Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model towards increasing the lead-time of flash flood forecasts in South Africa. ... The procedure is applied to a real flash flood event and the ensemble-based rainfall forecasts are verified against rainfall estimated by the SAFFG system. The approach ...
Probabilistic safety assessment goals in Canada
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Snell, V.G.
1986-01-01
CANDU safety philosphy, both in design and in licensing, has always had a strong bias towards quantitative probabilistically-based goals derived from comparative safety. Formal probabilistic safety assessment began in Canada as a design tool. The influence of this carried over later on into the definition of the deterministic safety guidelines used in CANDU licensing. Design goals were further developed which extended the consequence/frequency spectrum of 'acceptable' events, from the two points defined by the deterministic single/dual failure analysis, to a line passing through lower and higher frequencies. Since these were design tools, a complete risk summation was not necessary, allowing a cutoff at low event frequencies while preserving the identification of the most significant safety-related events. These goals gave a logical framework for making decisions on implementing design changes proposed as a result of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. Performing this analysis became a regulatory requirement, and the design goals remained the framework under which this was submitted. Recently, there have been initiatives to incorporate more detailed probabilistic safety goals into the regulatory process in Canada. These range from far-reaching safety optimization across society, to initiatives aimed at the nuclear industry only. The effectiveness of the latter is minor at very low and very high event frequencies; at medium frequencies, a justification against expenditures per life saved in other industries should be part of the goal setting
Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reed, J.W.
1985-01-01
The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table
Probabilistic safety goals. Phase 3 - Status report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Holmberg, J.-E.; Knochenhauer, M.
2009-07-01
The first phase of the project (2006) described the status, concepts and history of probabilistic safety goals for nuclear power plants. The second and third phases (2007-2008) have provided guidance related to the resolution of some of the problems identified, and resulted in a common understanding regarding the definition of safety goals. The basic aim of phase 3 (2009) has been to increase the scope and level of detail of the project, and to start preparations of a guidance document. Based on the conclusions from the previous project phases, the following issues have been covered: 1) Extension of international overview. Analysis of results from the questionnaire performed within the ongoing OECD/NEA WGRISK activity on probabilistic safety criteria, including participation in the preparation of the working report for OECD/NEA/WGRISK (to be finalised in phase 4). 2) Use of subsidiary criteria and relations between these (to be finalised in phase 4). 3) Numerical criteria when using probabilistic analyses in support of deterministic safety analysis (to be finalised in phase 4). 4) Guidance for the formulation, application and interpretation of probabilistic safety criteria (to be finalised in phase 4). (LN)
Probabilistic Relational Structures and Their Applications
Domotor, Zoltan
The principal objects of the investigation reported were, first, to study qualitative probability relations on Boolean algebras, and secondly, to describe applications in the theories of probability logic, information, automata, and probabilistic measurement. The main contribution of this work is stated in 10 definitions and 20 theorems. The basic…
Branching bisimulation congruence for probabilistic systems
Andova, S.; Georgievska, S.; Trcka, N.
2012-01-01
A notion of branching bisimilarity for the alternating model of probabilistic systems, compatible with parallel composition, is defined. For a congruence result, an internal transition immediately followed by a non-trivial probability distribution is not considered inert. A weaker definition of
On Probabilistic Automata in Continuous Time
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Eisentraut, Christian; Hermanns, Holger; Zhang, Lijun
2010-01-01
We develop a compositional behavioural model that integrates a variation of probabilistic automata into a conservative extension of interactive Markov chains. The model is rich enough to embody the semantics of generalised stochastic Petri nets. We define strong and weak bisimulations and discuss...
Bisimulations Meet PCTL Equivalences for Probabilistic Automata
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Song, Lei; Zhang, Lijun; Godskesen, Jens Chr.
2011-01-01
Probabilistic automata (PA) [20] have been successfully applied in the formal verification of concurrent and stochastic systems. Efficient model checking algorithms have been studied, where the most often used logics for expressing properties are based on PCTL [11] and its extension PCTL∗ [4...
Validation of in vitro probabilistic tractography
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dyrby, Tim B.; Sogaard, L.V.; Parker, G.J.
2007-01-01
assessed the anatomical validity and reproducibility of in vitro multi-fiber probabilistic tractography against two invasive tracers: the histochemically detectable biotinylated dextran amine and manganese enhanced magnetic resonance imaging. Post mortern DWI was used to ensure that most of the sources...
Searching Algorithms Implemented on Probabilistic Systolic Arrays
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kramosil, Ivan
1996-01-01
Roč. 25, č. 1 (1996), s. 7-45 ISSN 0308-1079 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/93/0781 Keywords : searching algorithms * probabilistic algorithms * systolic arrays * parallel algorithms Impact factor: 0.214, year: 1996
Financial Markets Analysis by Probabilistic Fuzzy Modelling
J.H. van den Berg (Jan); W.-M. van den Bergh (Willem-Max); U. Kaymak (Uzay)
2003-01-01
textabstractFor successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno
Towards decision making via expressive probabilistic ontologies
Acar, Erman; Thorne, Camilo; Stuckenschmidt, Heiner
2015-01-01
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015. We propose a framework for automated multi-attribute deci- sion making, employing the probabilistic non-monotonic description log- ics proposed by Lukasiewicz in 2008. Using this framework, we can model artificial agents in decision-making
The Probabilistic Nature of Preferential Choice
Rieskamp, Jorg
2008-01-01
Previous research has developed a variety of theories explaining when and why people's decisions under risk deviate from the standard economic view of expected utility maximization. These theories are limited in their predictive accuracy in that they do not explain the probabilistic nature of preferential choice, that is, why an individual makes…
A Probabilistic Framework for Curve Evolution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dahl, Vedrana Andersen
2017-01-01
approach include ability to handle textured images, simple generalization to multiple regions, and efficiency in computation. We test our probabilistic framework in combination with parametric (snakes) and geometric (level-sets) curves. The experimental results on composed and natural images demonstrate...
Probabilistic Output Analysis by Program Manipulation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rosendahl, Mads; Kirkeby, Maja Hanne
2015-01-01
The aim of a probabilistic output analysis is to derive a probability distribution of possible output values for a program from a probability distribution of its input. We present a method for performing static output analysis, based on program transformation techniques. It generates a probability...
Improved transformer protection using probabilistic neural network ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This article presents a novel technique to distinguish between magnetizing inrush current and internal fault current of power transformer. An algorithm has been developed around the theme of the conventional differential protection method in which parallel combination of Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) and Power ...
Financial markets analysis by probabilistic fuzzy modelling
Berg, van den J.; Kaymak, U.; Bergh, van den W.M.
2003-01-01
For successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno (TS)
Probabilistic solution of the Dirac equation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blanchard, P.; Combe, P.
1985-01-01
Various probabilistic representations of the 2, 3 and 4 dimensional Dirac equation are given in terms of expectation with respect to stochastic jump processes and are used to derive the nonrelativistic limit even in the presence of an external electromagnetic field. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eric Soubeyrand
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Anthocyanin biosynthesis is regulated by environmental factors (such as light, temperature, and water availability and nutrient status (such as carbon, nitrogen, and phosphate nutrition. Previous reports show that low nitrogen availability strongly enhances anthocyanin accumulation in non carbon-limited plant organs or cell suspensions. It has been hypothesized that high carbon-to-nitrogen ratio would lead to an energy excess in plant cells, and that an increase in flavonoid pathway metabolic fluxes would act as an “energy escape valve,” helping plant cells to cope with energy and carbon excess. However, this hypothesis has never been tested directly. To this end, we used the grapevine Vitis vinifera L. cultivar Gamay Teinturier (syn. Gamay Freaux or Freaux Tintorier, VIVC #4382 cell suspension line as a model system to study the regulation of anthocyanin accumulation in response to nitrogen supply. The cells were sub-cultured in the presence of either control (25 mM or low (5 mM nitrate concentration. Targeted metabolomics and enzyme activity determinations were used to parametrize a constraint-based model describing both the central carbon and nitrogen metabolisms and the flavonoid (phenylpropanoid pathway connected by the energy (ATP and reducing power equivalents (NADPH and NADH cofactors. The flux analysis (2 flux maps generated, for control and low nitrogen in culture medium clearly showed that in low nitrogen-fed cells all the metabolic fluxes of central metabolism were decreased, whereas fluxes that consume energy and reducing power, were either increased (upper part of glycolysis, shikimate, and flavonoid pathway or maintained (pentose phosphate pathway. Also, fluxes of flavanone 3β-hydroxylase, flavonol synthase, and anthocyanidin synthase were strongly increased, advocating for a regulation of the flavonoid pathway by alpha-ketoglutarate levels. These results strongly support the hypothesis of anthocyanin biosynthesis acting as
A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Derby, S.L.
1983-01-01
The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase
A probabilistic model of RNA conformational space
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frellsen, Jes; Moltke, Ida; Thiim, Martin
2009-01-01
, the discrete nature of the fragments necessitates the use of carefully tuned, unphysical energy functions, and their non-probabilistic nature impairs unbiased sampling. We offer a solution to the sampling problem that removes these important limitations: a probabilistic model of RNA structure that allows...... conformations for 9 out of 10 test structures, solely using coarse-grained base-pairing information. In conclusion, the method provides a theoretical and practical solution for a major bottleneck on the way to routine prediction and simulation of RNA structure and dynamics in atomic detail.......The increasing importance of non-coding RNA in biology and medicine has led to a growing interest in the problem of RNA 3-D structure prediction. As is the case for proteins, RNA 3-D structure prediction methods require two key ingredients: an accurate energy function and a conformational sampling...
Generalized probabilistic scale space for image restoration.
Wong, Alexander; Mishra, Akshaya K
2010-10-01
A novel generalized sampling-based probabilistic scale space theory is proposed for image restoration. We explore extending the definition of scale space to better account for both noise and observation models, which is important for producing accurately restored images. A new class of scale-space realizations based on sampling and probability theory is introduced to realize this extended definition in the context of image restoration. Experimental results using 2-D images show that generalized sampling-based probabilistic scale-space theory can be used to produce more accurate restored images when compared with state-of-the-art scale-space formulations, particularly under situations characterized by low signal-to-noise ratios and image degradation.
Probabilistic cloning and deleting of quantum states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feng Yuan; Zhang Shengyu; Ying Mingsheng
2002-01-01
We construct a probabilistic cloning and deleting machine which, taking several copies of an input quantum state, can output a linear superposition of multiple cloning and deleting states. Since the machine can perform cloning and deleting in a single unitary evolution, the probabilistic cloning and other cloning machines proposed in the previous literature can be thought of as special cases of our machine. A sufficient and necessary condition for successful cloning and deleting is presented, and it requires that the copies of an arbitrarily presumed number of the input states are linearly independent. This simply generalizes some results for cloning. We also derive an upper bound for the success probability of the cloning and deleting machine
Probabilistic Modeling of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei
Wind energy is one of several energy sources in the world and a rapidly growing industry in the energy sector. When placed in offshore or onshore locations, wind turbines are exposed to wave excitations, highly dynamic wind loads and/or the wakes from other wind turbines. Therefore, most components...... in a wind turbine experience highly dynamic and time-varying loads. These components may fail due to wear or fatigue, and this can lead to unplanned shutdown repairs that are very costly. The design by deterministic methods using safety factors is generally unable to account for the many uncertainties. Thus......, a reliability assessment should be based on probabilistic methods where stochastic modeling of failures is performed. This thesis focuses on probabilistic models and the stochastic modeling of the fatigue life of the wind turbine drivetrain. Hence, two approaches are considered for stochastic modeling...
A probabilistic model of RNA conformational space
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frellsen, Jes; Moltke, Ida; Thiim, Martin
2009-01-01
efficient sampling of RNA conformations in continuous space, and with associated probabilities. We show that the model captures several key features of RNA structure, such as its rotameric nature and the distribution of the helix lengths. Furthermore, the model readily generates native-like 3-D......, the discrete nature of the fragments necessitates the use of carefully tuned, unphysical energy functions, and their non-probabilistic nature impairs unbiased sampling. We offer a solution to the sampling problem that removes these important limitations: a probabilistic model of RNA structure that allows......The increasing importance of non-coding RNA in biology and medicine has led to a growing interest in the problem of RNA 3-D structure prediction. As is the case for proteins, RNA 3-D structure prediction methods require two key ingredients: an accurate energy function and a conformational sampling...
Probabilistic approach to manipulator kinematics and dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rao, S.S.; Bhatti, P.K.
2001-01-01
A high performance, high speed robotic arm must be able to manipulate objects with a high degree of accuracy and repeatability. As with any other physical system, there are a number of factors causing uncertainties in the behavior of a robotic manipulator. These factors include manufacturing and assembling tolerances, and errors in the joint actuators and controllers. In order to study the effect of these uncertainties on the robotic end-effector and to obtain a better insight into the manipulator behavior, the manipulator kinematics and dynamics are modeled using a probabilistic approach. Based on the probabilistic model, kinematic and dynamic performance criteria are defined to provide measures of the behavior of the robotic end-effector. Techniques are presented to compute the kinematic and dynamic reliabilities of the manipulator. The effects of tolerances associated with the various manipulator parameters on the reliabilities are studied. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the procedures
Probabilistic precursor analysis - an application of PSA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hari Prasad, M.; Gopika, V.; Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Vaze, K.K.
2011-01-01
Incidents are inevitably part of the operational life of any complex industrial facility, and it is hard to predict how various contributing factors combine to cause the outcome. However, it should be possible to detect the existence of latent conditions that, together with the triggering failure(s), result in abnormal events. These incidents are called precursors. Precursor study, by definition, focuses on how a particular event might have adversely developed. This paper focuses on the events which can be analyzed to assess their potential to develop into core damage situation and looks into extending Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to precursor studies and explains the benefits through a typical case study. A preliminary probabilistic precursor analysis has been carried out for a typical NPP. The major advantages of this approach are the strong potential for augmenting event analysis which is currently carried out purely on deterministic basis. (author)
Probabilistic Analysis of Gas Turbine Field Performance
Gorla, Rama S. R.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Rusick, Jeffrey J.
2002-01-01
A gas turbine thermodynamic cycle was computationally simulated and probabilistically evaluated in view of the several uncertainties in the performance parameters, which are indices of gas turbine health. Cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity factors were computed for the overall thermal efficiency and net specific power output due to the thermodynamic random variables. These results can be used to quickly identify the most critical design variables in order to optimize the design, enhance performance, increase system availability and make it cost effective. The analysis leads to the selection of the appropriate measurements to be used in the gas turbine health determination and to the identification of both the most critical measurements and parameters. Probabilistic analysis aims at unifying and improving the control and health monitoring of gas turbine aero-engines by increasing the quality and quantity of information available about the engine's health and performance.
Probabilistic safety assessment for research reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1986-12-01
Increasing interest in using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods for research reactor safety is being observed in many countries throughout the world. This is mainly because of the great ability of this approach in achieving safe and reliable operation of research reactors. There is also a need to assist developing countries to apply Probabilistic Safety Assessment to existing nuclear facilities which are simpler and therefore less complicated to analyse than a large Nuclear Power Plant. It may be important, therefore, to develop PSA for research reactors. This might also help to better understand the safety characteristics of the reactor and to base any backfitting on a cost-benefit analysis which would ensure that only necessary changes are made. This document touches on all the key aspects of PSA but placed greater emphasis on so-called systems analysis aspects rather than the in-plant or ex-plant consequences
Probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation
Reich, Sebastian
2015-01-01
In this book the authors describe the principles and methods behind probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation. Instead of focusing on particular application areas, the authors adopt a general dynamical systems approach, with a profusion of low-dimensional, discrete-time numerical examples designed to build intuition about the subject. Part I explains the mathematical framework of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty quantification. Part II is devoted to Bayesian filtering algorithms, from classical data assimilation algorithms such as the Kalman filter, variational techniques, and sequential Monte Carlo methods, through to more recent developments such as the ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble transform filters. The McKean approach to sequential filtering in combination with coupling of measures serves as a unifying mathematical framework throughout Part II. Assuming only some basic familiarity with probability, this book is an ideal introduction for graduate students in ap...
A Probabilistic Model of Social Working Memory for Information Retrieval in Social Interactions.
Li, Liyuan; Xu, Qianli; Gan, Tian; Tan, Cheston; Lim, Joo-Hwee
2018-05-01
Social working memory (SWM) plays an important role in navigating social interactions. Inspired by studies in psychology, neuroscience, cognitive science, and machine learning, we propose a probabilistic model of SWM to mimic human social intelligence for personal information retrieval (IR) in social interactions. First, we establish a semantic hierarchy as social long-term memory to encode personal information. Next, we propose a semantic Bayesian network as the SWM, which integrates the cognitive functions of accessibility and self-regulation. One subgraphical model implements the accessibility function to learn the social consensus about IR-based on social information concept, clustering, social context, and similarity between persons. Beyond accessibility, one more layer is added to simulate the function of self-regulation to perform the personal adaptation to the consensus based on human personality. Two learning algorithms are proposed to train the probabilistic SWM model on a raw dataset of high uncertainty and incompleteness. One is an efficient learning algorithm of Newton's method, and the other is a genetic algorithm. Systematic evaluations show that the proposed SWM model is able to learn human social intelligence effectively and outperforms the baseline Bayesian cognitive model. Toward real-world applications, we implement our model on Google Glass as a wearable assistant for social interaction.
Fast probabilistic file fingerprinting for big data.
Tretyakov, Konstantin; Laur, Sven; Smant, Geert; Vilo, Jaak; Prins, Pjotr
2013-01-01
Biological data acquisition is raising new challenges, both in data analysis and handling. Not only is it proving hard to analyze the data at the rate it is generated today, but simply reading and transferring data files can be prohibitively slow due to their size. This primarily concerns logistics within and between data centers, but is also important for workstation users in the analysis phase. Common usage patterns, such as comparing and transferring files, are proving computationally expensive and are tying down shared resources. We present an efficient method for calculating file uniqueness for large scientific data files, that takes less computational effort than existing techniques. This method, called Probabilistic Fast File Fingerprinting (PFFF), exploits the variation present in biological data and computes file fingerprints by sampling randomly from the file instead of reading it in full. Consequently, it has a flat performance characteristic, correlated with data variation rather than file size. We demonstrate that probabilistic fingerprinting can be as reliable as existing hashing techniques, with provably negligible risk of collisions. We measure the performance of the algorithm on a number of data storage and access technologies, identifying its strengths as well as limitations. Probabilistic fingerprinting may significantly reduce the use of computational resources when comparing very large files. Utilisation of probabilistic fingerprinting techniques can increase the speed of common file-related workflows, both in the data center and for workbench analysis. The implementation of the algorithm is available as an open-source tool named pfff, as a command-line tool as well as a C library. The tool can be downloaded from http://biit.cs.ut.ee/pfff.
Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling
Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno
2016-04-01
Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.
Probabilistic Bandwidth Assignment in Wireless Sensor Networks
Khan , Dawood; Nefzi , Bilel; Santinelli , Luca; Song , Ye-Qiong
2012-01-01
International audience; With this paper we offer an insight in designing and analyzing wireless sensor networks in a versatile manner. Our framework applies probabilistic and component-based design principles for the wireless sensor network modeling and consequently analysis; while maintaining flexibility and accuracy. In particular, we address the problem of allocating and reconfiguring the available bandwidth. The framework has been successfully implemented in IEEE 802.15.4 using an Admissi...
Probabilistic real-time contingency ranking method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mijuskovic, N.A.; Stojnic, D.
2000-01-01
This paper describes a real-time contingency method based on a probabilistic index-expected energy not supplied. This way it is possible to take into account the stochastic nature of the electric power system equipment outages. This approach enables more comprehensive ranking of contingencies and it is possible to form reliability cost values that can form the basis for hourly spot price calculations. The electric power system of Serbia is used as an example for the method proposed. (author)
A probabilistic approach to crack instability
Chudnovsky, A.; Kunin, B.
1989-01-01
A probabilistic model of brittle fracture is examined with reference to two-dimensional problems. The model is illustrated by using experimental data obtained for 25 macroscopically identical specimens made of short-fiber-reinforced composites. It is shown that the model proposed here provides a predictive formalism for the probability distributions of critical crack depth, critical loads, and crack arrest depths. It also provides similarity criteria for small-scale testing.
A probabilistic maintenance model for diesel engines
Pathirana, Shan; Abeygunawardane, Saranga Kumudu
2018-02-01
In this paper, a probabilistic maintenance model is developed for inspection based preventive maintenance of diesel engines based on the practical model concepts discussed in the literature. Developed model is solved using real data obtained from inspection and maintenance histories of diesel engines and experts' views. Reliability indices and costs were calculated for the present maintenance policy of diesel engines. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to observe the effect of inspection based preventive maintenance on the life cycle cost of diesel engines.
Probabilistic theism and the problem of evil
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dariusz Łukasiewicz
2017-01-01
Full Text Available I would like to present in the article an “omnipotence model of a theodicy of chance”, which is, as I believe, compatible with the view called probabilistic theism. I also would like to argue that this model satisfies the criteria of being a good theodicy. By a good theodicy I mean a reasonable and plausible theistic account of evil. A good theodicy should be: a comprehensive, b adequate, c authentic and d existentially relevant.
Probabilistic studies for safety at optimum cost
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pitner, P.
1999-01-01
By definition, the risk of failure of very reliable components is difficult to evaluate. How can the best strategies for in service inspection and maintenance be defined to limit this risk to an acceptable level at optimum cost? It is not sufficient to design structures with margins, it is also essential to understand how they age. The probabilistic approach has made it possible to develop well proven concepts. (author)
Incorporating psychological influences in probabilistic cost analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kujawski, Edouard; Alvaro, Mariana; Edwards, William
2004-01-08
Today's typical probabilistic cost analysis assumes an ''ideal'' project that is devoid of the human and organizational considerations that heavily influence the success and cost of real-world projects. In the real world ''Money Allocated Is Money Spent'' (MAIMS principle); cost underruns are rarely available to protect against cost overruns while task overruns are passed on to the total project cost. Realistic cost estimates therefore require a modified probabilistic cost analysis that simultaneously models the cost management strategy including budget allocation. Psychological influences such as overconfidence in assessing uncertainties and dependencies among cost elements and risks are other important considerations that are generally not addressed. It should then be no surprise that actual project costs often exceed the initial estimates and are delivered late and/or with a reduced scope. This paper presents a practical probabilistic cost analysis model that incorporates recent findings in human behavior and judgment under uncertainty, dependencies among cost elements, the MAIMS principle, and project management practices. Uncertain cost elements are elicited from experts using the direct fractile assessment method and fitted with three-parameter Weibull distributions. The full correlation matrix is specified in terms of two parameters that characterize correlations among cost elements in the same and in different subsystems. The analysis is readily implemented using standard Monte Carlo simulation tools such as {at}Risk and Crystal Ball{reg_sign}. The analysis of a representative design and engineering project substantiates that today's typical probabilistic cost analysis is likely to severely underestimate project cost for probability of success values of importance to contractors and procuring activities. The proposed approach provides a framework for developing a viable cost management strategy for
Characterizing the topology of probabilistic biological networks.
Todor, Andrei; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer
2013-01-01
Biological interactions are often uncertain events, that may or may not take place with some probability. This uncertainty leads to a massive number of alternative interaction topologies for each such network. The existing studies analyze the degree distribution of biological networks by assuming that all the given interactions take place under all circumstances. This strong and often incorrect assumption can lead to misleading results. In this paper, we address this problem and develop a sound mathematical basis to characterize networks in the presence of uncertain interactions. Using our mathematical representation, we develop a method that can accurately describe the degree distribution of such networks. We also take one more step and extend our method to accurately compute the joint-degree distributions of node pairs connected by edges. The number of possible network topologies grows exponentially with the number of uncertain interactions. However, the mathematical model we develop allows us to compute these degree distributions in polynomial time in the number of interactions. Our method works quickly even for entire protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks. It also helps us find an adequate mathematical model using MLE. We perform a comparative study of node-degree and joint-degree distributions in two types of biological networks: the classical deterministic networks and the more flexible probabilistic networks. Our results confirm that power-law and log-normal models best describe degree distributions for both probabilistic and deterministic networks. Moreover, the inverse correlation of degrees of neighboring nodes shows that, in probabilistic networks, nodes with large number of interactions prefer to interact with those with small number of interactions more frequently than expected. We also show that probabilistic networks are more robust for node-degree distribution computation than the deterministic ones. all the data sets used, the software
Failure probabilistic model of CNC lathes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Yiqiang; Jia Yazhou; Yu Junyi; Zheng Yuhua; Yi Shangfeng
1999-01-01
A field failure analysis of computerized numerical control (CNC) lathes is described. Field failure data was collected over a period of two years on approximately 80 CNC lathes. A coding system to code failure data was devised and a failure analysis data bank of CNC lathes was established. The failure position and subsystem, failure mode and cause were analyzed to indicate the weak subsystem of a CNC lathe. Also, failure probabilistic model of CNC lathes was analyzed by fuzzy multicriteria comprehensive evaluation
Insights gained through probabilistic risk assessments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hitchler, M.J.; Burns, N.L.; Liparulo, N.J.; Mink, F.J.
1987-01-01
The insights gained through a comparison of seven probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) studies (Italian PUN, Sizewell B, Ringhals 2, Millstone 3, Zion 1 and 2, Oconee 3, and Seabrook) included insights regarding the adequacy of the PRA technology utilized in the studies and the potential areas for improvement and insights regarding the adequacy of plant designs and how PRA has been utilized to enhance the design and operation of nuclear power plants
Towards probabilistic synchronisation of local controllers
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Herzallah, R.; Kárný, Miroslav
2017-01-01
Roč. 48, č. 3 (2017), s. 604-615 ISSN 0020-7721 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : cooperative control * optimal control * complex system s * stochastic system s * fully probabilistic desing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 2.285, year: 2016
Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine
2016-01-01
Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf
Probabilistic Extraction Of Vectors In PIV
Humphreys, William M., Jr.
1994-01-01
Probabilistic technique for extraction of velocity vectors in particle-image velocimetry (PIV) implemented with much less computation. Double-exposure photograph of particles in flow illuminated by sheet of light provides data on velocity field of flow. Photograph converted into video image then digitized and processed by computer into velocity-field data. Velocity vectors in interrogation region chosen from magnitude and angle histograms constructed from centroid map of region.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Niti Ashish Kumar Desai
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Business Strategies are formulated based on an understanding of customer needs. This requires development of a strategy to understand customer behaviour and buying patterns, both current and future. This involves understanding, first how an organization currently understands customer needs and second predicting future trends to drive growth. This article focuses on purchase trend of customer, where timing of purchase is more important than association of item to be purchased, and which can be found out with Sequential Pattern Mining (SPM methods. Conventional SPM algorithms worked purely on frequency identifying patterns that were more frequent but suffering from challenges like generation of huge number of uninteresting patterns, lack of user’s interested patterns, rare item problem, etc. Article attempts a solution through development of a SPM algorithm based on various constraints like Gap, Compactness, Item, Recency, Profitability and Length along with Frequency constraint. Incorporation of six additional constraints is as well to ensure that all patterns are recently active (Recency, active for certain time span (Compactness, profitable and indicative of next timeline for purchase (Length―Item―Gap. The article also attempts to throw light on how proposed Constraint-based Prefix Span algorithm is helpful to understand buying behaviour of customer which is in formative stage.
Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events
Adams, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, W. F.; Xapsos, M. A.; Welton, A. M.
2009-01-01
Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.
Probabilistic Graph Layout for Uncertain Network Visualization.
Schulz, Christoph; Nocaj, Arlind; Goertler, Jochen; Deussen, Oliver; Brandes, Ulrik; Weiskopf, Daniel
2017-01-01
We present a novel uncertain network visualization technique based on node-link diagrams. Nodes expand spatially in our probabilistic graph layout, depending on the underlying probability distributions of edges. The visualization is created by computing a two-dimensional graph embedding that combines samples from the probabilistic graph. A Monte Carlo process is used to decompose a probabilistic graph into its possible instances and to continue with our graph layout technique. Splatting and edge bundling are used to visualize point clouds and network topology. The results provide insights into probability distributions for the entire network-not only for individual nodes and edges. We validate our approach using three data sets that represent a wide range of network types: synthetic data, protein-protein interactions from the STRING database, and travel times extracted from Google Maps. Our approach reveals general limitations of the force-directed layout and allows the user to recognize that some nodes of the graph are at a specific position just by chance.
Probabilistic safety analysis and interpretation thereof
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Steininger, U.; Sacher, H.
1999-01-01
Increasing use of the instrumentation of PSA is being made in Germany for quantitative technical safety assessment, for example with regard to incidents which must be reported and forwarding of information, especially in the case of modification of nuclear plants. The Commission for Nuclear Reactor Safety recommends regular execution of PSA on a cycle period of ten years. According to the PSA guidance instructions, probabilistic analyses serve for assessing the degree of safety of the entire plant, expressed as the expectation value for the frequency of endangering conditions. The authors describe the method, action sequence and evaluation of the probabilistic safety analyses. The limits of probabilistic safety analyses arise in the practical implementation. Normally the guidance instructions for PSA are confined to the safety systems, so that in practice they are at best suitable for operational optimisation only to a limited extent. The present restriction of the analyses has a similar effect on power output operation of the plant. This seriously degrades the utilitarian value of these analyses for the plant operators. In order to further develop PSA as a supervisory and operational optimisation instrument, both authors consider it to be appropriate to bring together the specific know-how of analysts, manufacturers, plant operators and experts. (orig.) [de
PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.
1996-01-01
A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques
Applications of probabilistic techniques at NRC
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thadani, A.; Rowsome, F.; Speis, T.
1984-01-01
The NRC is currently making extensive use of probabilistic safety assessment in the reactor regulation. Most of these applications have been introduced in the regulatory activities in the past few years. Plant Probabilistic Safety Studies are being utilized as a design tool for applications for standard designs and for assessment of plants located in regions of particularly high population density. There is considerable motivation for licenses to perform plant-specific probabilistic studies for many, if not all, of the existing operating nuclear power plants as a tool for prioritizing the implementation of the many outstanding licensing actions of these plants as well as recommending the elimination of a number of these issues which are judged to be insignificant in terms of their contribution to safety and risk. Risk assessment perspectives are being used in the priorization of generic safety issues, development of technical resolution of unresolved safety issues, assessing safety significance of proposed new regulatory requirements, assessment of safety significance of some of the occurrences at operating facilities and in environmental impact analyses of license applicants as required by the National Environmental Policy Act. (orig.)
Symbolic Computing in Probabilistic and Stochastic Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kamiński Marcin
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The main aim is to present recent developments in applications of symbolic computing in probabilistic and stochastic analysis, and this is done using the example of the well-known MAPLE system. The key theoretical methods discussed are (i analytical derivations, (ii the classical Monte-Carlo simulation approach, (iii the stochastic perturbation technique, as well as (iv some semi-analytical approaches. It is demonstrated in particular how to engage the basic symbolic tools implemented in any system to derive the basic equations for the stochastic perturbation technique and how to make an efficient implementation of the semi-analytical methods using an automatic differentiation and integration provided by the computer algebra program itself. The second important illustration is probabilistic extension of the finite element and finite difference methods coded in MAPLE, showing how to solve boundary value problems with random parameters in the environment of symbolic computing. The response function method belongs to the third group, where interference of classical deterministic software with the non-linear fitting numerical techniques available in various symbolic environments is displayed. We recover in this context the probabilistic structural response in engineering systems and show how to solve partial differential equations including Gaussian randomness in their coefficients.
Using ELM-based weighted probabilistic model in the classification of synchronous EEG BCI.
Tan, Ping; Tan, Guan-Zheng; Cai, Zi-Xing; Sa, Wei-Ping; Zou, Yi-Qun
2017-01-01
Extreme learning machine (ELM) is an effective machine learning technique with simple theory and fast implementation, which has gained increasing interest from various research fields recently. A new method that combines ELM with probabilistic model method is proposed in this paper to classify the electroencephalography (EEG) signals in synchronous brain-computer interface (BCI) system. In the proposed method, the softmax function is used to convert the ELM output to classification probability. The Chernoff error bound, deduced from the Bayesian probabilistic model in the training process, is adopted as the weight to take the discriminant process. Since the proposed method makes use of the knowledge from all preceding training datasets, its discriminating performance improves accumulatively. In the test experiments based on the datasets from BCI competitions, the proposed method is compared with other classification methods, including the linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine, ELM and weighted probabilistic model methods. For comparison, the mutual information, classification accuracy and information transfer rate are considered as the evaluation indicators for these classifiers. The results demonstrate that our method shows competitive performance against other methods.
Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred
2012-01-01
. The proposed learning algorithm is adapted from algorithms for learning deterministic probabilistic finite automata, and extended to include both probabilistic and nondeterministic transitions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed and evaluated by learning system models of slot machines. The evaluation......Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm...... on learning probabilistic automata to reactive systems, where the observed system behavior is in the form of alternating sequences of inputs and outputs. We propose an algorithm for automatically learning a deterministic labeled Markov decision process model from the observed behavior of a reactive system...
Recent case studies and advancements in probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garrick, B.J.
1985-01-01
During the period from 1977 to 1984, Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., had the lead in preparing several full scope probabilistic risk assessments for electric utilities. Five of those studies are discussed from the point of view of advancements and lessons learned. The objective and trend of these studies is toward utilization of the risk models by the plant owners as risk management tools. Advancements that have been made are in presentation ad documentation of the PRAs, generation of more understandable plant level information, and improvements in methodology to facilitate technology transfer. Specific areas of advancement are in the treatment of such issues as dependent failures, human interaction, and the uncertainty in the source term. Lessons learned cover a wide spectrum and include the importance of plant specific models for meaningful risk management, the role of external events in risk, the sensitivity of contributors to choice of risk index, and the very important finding that the public risk is extremely small. The future direction of PRA is to establish less dependence on experts for in-plant application. Computerizing the PRAs such that they can be accessed on line and interactively is the key
Reconstructing Constructivism: Causal Models, Bayesian Learning Mechanisms, and the Theory Theory
Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.
2012-01-01
We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework…
Probabilistic safety analysis vs probabilistic fracture mechanics -relation and necessary merging
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nilsson, Fred
1997-01-01
A comparison is made between some general features of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in its standard form. We conclude that: Result from PSA is a numerically expressed level of confidence in the system based on the state of current knowledge. It is thus not any objective measure of risk. It is important to carefully define the precise nature of the probabilistic statement and relate it to a well defined situation. Standardisation of PFM methods is necessary. PFM seems to be the only way to obtain estimates of the pipe break probability. Service statistics are of doubtful value because of scarcity of data and statistical inhomogeneity. Collection of service data should be directed towards the occurrence of growing cracks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Jae Yeol; Sim, Jae Gi; Ko, Myoung Soo; Kim, Chang Hyun; Kim, Hun Cho
2001-01-01
In this study, researchers developing the estimative algorithm for artificial defects in semiconductor packages and performing it by pattern recognition technology. For this purpose, the estimative algorithm was included that researchers made software with MATLAB. The software consists of some procedures including ultrasonic image acquisition, equalization filtering, Self-Organizing Map and Probabilistic Neural Network. Self-Organizing Map and Probabilistic Neural Network are belong to methods of Neural Networks. And the pattern recognition technology has applied to classify three kinds of detective patterns in semiconductor packages. This study presumes probability density function from a sample of learning and present which is automatically determine method. PNN can distinguish flaws very difficult distinction as well as. This can do parallel process to stand in a row we confirm that is very efficiently classifier if we applied many data real the process.
Galleske, I; Castellanos, J
2002-05-01
This article proposes a procedure for the automatic determination of the elements of the covariance matrix of the gaussian kernel function of probabilistic neural networks. Two matrices, a rotation matrix and a matrix of variances, can be calculated by analyzing the local environment of each training pattern. The combination of them will form the covariance matrix of each training pattern. This automation has two advantages: First, it will free the neural network designer from indicating the complete covariance matrix, and second, it will result in a network with better generalization ability than the original model. A variation of the famous two-spiral problem and real-world examples from the UCI Machine Learning Repository will show a classification rate not only better than the original probabilistic neural network but also that this model can outperform other well-known classification techniques.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Golestaneh, Faranak; Pinson, Pierre; Gooi, Hoay Beng
2016-01-01
Due to the inherent uncertainty involved in renewable energy forecasting, uncertainty quantification is a key input to maintain acceptable levels of reliability and profitability in power system operation. A proposal is formulated and evaluated here for the case of solar power generation, when only...... approach to generate very short-term predictive densities, i.e., for lead times between a few minutes to one hour ahead, with fast frequency updates. We rely on an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) as a fast regression model, trained in varied ways to obtain both point and quantile forecasts of solar power...... generation. Four probabilistic methods are implemented as benchmarks. Rival approaches are evaluated based on a number of test cases for two solar power generation sites in different climatic regions, allowing us to show that our approach results in generation of skilful and reliable probabilistic forecasts...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohsen Laabidi
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Nowadays learning technologies transformed educational systems with impressive progress of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT. Furthermore, when these technologies are available, affordable and accessible, they represent more than a transformation for people with disabilities. They represent real opportunities with access to an inclusive education and help to overcome the obstacles they met in classical educational systems. In this paper, we will cover basic concepts of e-accessibility, universal design and assistive technologies, with a special focus on accessible e-learning systems. Then, we will present recent research works conducted in our research Laboratory LaTICE toward the development of an accessible online learning environment for persons with disabilities from the design and specification step to the implementation. We will present, in particular, the accessible version “MoodleAcc+” of the well known e-learning platform Moodle as well as new elaborated generic models and a range of tools for authoring and evaluating accessible educational content.
On probabilistic forecasting of wind power time-series
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre
power dynamics. In both cases, the model parameters are adaptively and recursively estimated, time-adaptativity being the result of exponential forgetting of past observations. The probabilistic forecasting methodology is applied at the Horns Rev wind farm in Denmark, for 10-minute ahead probabilistic...... forecasting of wind power generation. Probabilistic forecasts generated from the proposed methodology clearly have higher skill than those obtained from a classical Gaussian assumption about wind power predictive densities. Corresponding point forecasts also exhibit significantly lower error criteria....
Volume 2. Probabilistic analysis of HTGR application studies. Supporting data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1980-09-01
Volume II, Probabilistic Analysis of HTGR Application Studies - Supporting Data, gives the detail data, both deterministic and probabilistic, employed in the calculation presented in Volume I. The HTGR plants and the fossil plants considered in the study are listed. GCRA provided the technical experts from which the data were obtained by MAC personnel. The names of the technical experts (interviewee) and the analysts (interviewer) are given for the probabilistic data
Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS
Shiao, Michael C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Chamis, Christos C.
1988-01-01
Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.
Probabilistic safety assessment as a standpoint for decision making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cepin, M.
2001-01-01
This paper focuses on the role of probabilistic safety assessment in decision-making. The prerequisites for use of the results of probabilistic safety assessment and the criteria for the decision-making based on probabilistic safety assessment are discussed. The decision-making process is described. It provides a risk evaluation of impact of the issue under investigation. Selected examples are discussed, which highlight the described process. (authors)
Some ideas for learning CP-theories
Fierens, Daan
2008-01-01
Causal Probabilistic logic (CP-logic) is a language for describing complex probabilistic processes. In this talk we consider the problem of learning CP-theories from data. We briefly discuss three possible approaches. First, we review the existing algorithm by Meert et al. Second, we show how simple CP-theories can be learned by using the learning algorithm for Logical Bayesian Networks and converting the result into a CP-theory. Third, we argue that for learning more complex CP-theories, an ...
Probabilistic logic networks a comprehensive framework for uncertain inference
Goertzel, Ben; Goertzel, Izabela Freire; Heljakka, Ari
2008-01-01
This comprehensive book describes Probabilistic Logic Networks (PLN), a novel conceptual, mathematical and computational approach to uncertain inference. A broad scope of reasoning types are considered.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang Jie; Wang Guozhen; Xuan Fuzhen; Tu Shandong
2013-01-01
Background: Constraint can significantly alter the material's fracture toughness. Purpose: In order to increase accuracy of the structural integrity assessment. It needs to consider the effect of constraint on the fracture toughness of nuclear power materials and structures. A unified measure which can reflect both in-plane and out-of-plane constraint is needed. Methods: In this paper, the finite element numerical simulation method was used, a unified measure and characterization parameter of in-plane and out-of-plane constraint based on crack-tip equivalent plastic strain have been investigated. Results: The results show that the area surrounded by ε p isoline has a good relevance with the material's fracture toughness on different constraint conditions, so it may be a suitable parameter. Based on the area A PEEQ , a unified constraint characterization parameter √A p is defined. It was found that there exists a sole linear relation between the normalized fracture toughness J IC /J re f and √A p regardless of the in-plane, out-of-plane constraint and the selection of the p isolines. The sole J IC /J re f-√A p line exists for a certain material. For different materials, the slope of J IC /J re f-√A p reference line is different. The material whose slope is larger has a higher J IC /J re f and is more sensitive to constraint at the same magnitude of normalized unified parameter. Conclusions: The unified J IC /J re f -√A p reference line may be used to assess the safety of a cracked component with any constraint levels regardless of in-plane or out-of-plane constraint or both. (authors)
Diagnosis of students' ability in a statistical course based on Rasch probabilistic outcome
Mahmud, Zamalia; Ramli, Wan Syahira Wan; Sapri, Shamsiah; Ahmad, Sanizah
2017-06-01
Measuring students' ability and performance are important in assessing how well students have learned and mastered the statistical courses. Any improvement in learning will depend on the student's approaches to learning, which are relevant to some factors of learning, namely assessment methods carrying out tasks consisting of quizzes, tests, assignment and final examination. This study has attempted an alternative approach to measure students' ability in an undergraduate statistical course based on the Rasch probabilistic model. Firstly, this study aims to explore the learning outcome patterns of students in a statistics course (Applied Probability and Statistics) based on an Entrance-Exit survey. This is followed by investigating students' perceived learning ability based on four Course Learning Outcomes (CLOs) and students' actual learning ability based on their final examination scores. Rasch analysis revealed that students perceived themselves as lacking the ability to understand about 95% of the statistics concepts at the beginning of the class but eventually they had a good understanding at the end of the 14 weeks class. In terms of students' performance in their final examination, their ability in understanding the topics varies at different probability values given the ability of the students and difficulty of the questions. Majority found the probability and counting rules topic to be the most difficult to learn.
Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hiemer, S.
2014-07-01
The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a
Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hiemer, S.
2014-01-01
The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a
Probabilistically modeling lava flows with MOLASSES
Richardson, J. A.; Connor, L.; Connor, C.; Gallant, E.
2017-12-01
Modeling lava flows through Cellular Automata methods enables a computationally inexpensive means to quickly forecast lava flow paths and ultimate areal extents. We have developed a lava flow simulator, MOLASSES, that forecasts lava flow inundation over an elevation model from a point source eruption. This modular code can be implemented in a deterministic fashion with given user inputs that will produce a single lava flow simulation. MOLASSES can also be implemented in a probabilistic fashion where given user inputs define parameter distributions that are randomly sampled to create many lava flow simulations. This probabilistic approach enables uncertainty in input data to be expressed in the model results and MOLASSES outputs a probability map of inundation instead of a determined lava flow extent. Since the code is comparatively fast, we use it probabilistically to investigate where potential vents are located that may impact specific sites and areas, as well as the unconditional probability of lava flow inundation of sites or areas from any vent. We have validated the MOLASSES code to community-defined benchmark tests and to the real world lava flows at Tolbachik (2012-2013) and Pico do Fogo (2014-2015). To determine the efficacy of the MOLASSES simulator at accurately and precisely mimicking the inundation area of real flows, we report goodness of fit using both model sensitivity and the Positive Predictive Value, the latter of which is a Bayesian posterior statistic. Model sensitivity is often used in evaluating lava flow simulators, as it describes how much of the lava flow was successfully modeled by the simulation. We argue that the positive predictive value is equally important in determining how good a simulator is, as it describes the percentage of the simulation space that was actually inundated by lava.
A Methodology for Probabilistic Accident Management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Munteanu, Ion; Aldemir, Tunc
2003-01-01
While techniques have been developed to tackle different tasks in accident management, there have been very few attempts to develop an on-line operator assistance tool for accident management and none that can be found in the literature that uses probabilistic arguments, which are important in today's licensing climate. The state/parameter estimation capability of the dynamic system doctor (DSD) approach is combined with the dynamic event-tree generation capability of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology to address this issue. The DSD uses the cell-to-cell mapping technique for system representation that models the system evolution in terms of probability of transitions in time between sets of user-defined parameter/state variable magnitude intervals (cells) within a user-specified time interval (e.g., data sampling interval). The cell-to-cell transition probabilities are obtained from the given system model. The ISA follows the system dynamics in tree form and braches every time a setpoint for system/operator intervention is exceeded. The combined approach (a) can automatically account for uncertainties in the monitored system state, inputs, and modeling uncertainties through the appropriate choice of the cells, as well as providing a probabilistic measure to rank the likelihood of possible system states in view of these uncertainties; (b) allows flexibility in system representation; (c) yields the lower and upper bounds on the estimated values of state variables/parameters as well as their expected values; and (d) leads to fewer branchings in the dynamic event-tree generation. Using a simple but realistic pressurizer model, the potential use of the DSD-ISA methodology for on-line probabilistic accident management is illustrated
A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia
Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.
2014-11-01
Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.
Bounding probabilistic safety assessment probabilities by reality
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fragola, J.R.; Shooman, M.L.
1991-01-01
The investigation of the failure in systems where failure is a rare event makes the continual comparisons between the developed probabilities and empirical evidence difficult. The comparison of the predictions of rare event risk assessments with historical reality is essential to prevent probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) predictions from drifting into fantasy. One approach to performing such comparisons is to search out and assign probabilities to natural events which, while extremely rare, have a basis in the history of natural phenomena or human activities. For example the Segovian aqueduct and some of the Roman fortresses in Spain have existed for several millennia and in many cases show no physical signs of earthquake damage. This evidence could be used to bound the probability of earthquakes above a certain magnitude to less than 10 -3 per year. On the other hand, there is evidence that some repetitive actions can be performed with extremely low historical probabilities when operators are properly trained and motivated, and sufficient warning indicators are provided. The point is not that low probability estimates are impossible, but continual reassessment of the analysis assumptions, and a bounding of the analysis predictions by historical reality. This paper reviews the probabilistic predictions of PSA in this light, attempts to develop, in a general way, the limits which can be historically established and the consequent bounds that these limits place upon the predictions, and illustrates the methodology used in computing such limits. Further, the paper discusses the use of empirical evidence and the requirement for disciplined systematic approaches within the bounds of reality and the associated impact on PSA probabilistic estimates
Probabilistic design of fibre concrete structures
Pukl, R.; Novák, D.; Sajdlová, T.; Lehký, D.; Červenka, J.; Červenka, V.
2017-09-01
Advanced computer simulation is recently well-established methodology for evaluation of resistance of concrete engineering structures. The nonlinear finite element analysis enables to realistically predict structural damage, peak load, failure, post-peak response, development of cracks in concrete, yielding of reinforcement, concrete crushing or shear failure. The nonlinear material models can cover various types of concrete and reinforced concrete: ordinary concrete, plain or reinforced, without or with prestressing, fibre concrete, (ultra) high performance concrete, lightweight concrete, etc. Advanced material models taking into account fibre concrete properties such as shape of tensile softening branch, high toughness and ductility are described in the paper. Since the variability of the fibre concrete material properties is rather high, the probabilistic analysis seems to be the most appropriate format for structural design and evaluation of structural performance, reliability and safety. The presented combination of the nonlinear analysis with advanced probabilistic methods allows evaluation of structural safety characterized by failure probability or by reliability index respectively. Authors offer a methodology and computer tools for realistic safety assessment of concrete structures; the utilized approach is based on randomization of the nonlinear finite element analysis of the structural model. Uncertainty of the material properties or their randomness obtained from material tests are accounted in the random distribution. Furthermore, degradation of the reinforced concrete materials such as carbonation of concrete, corrosion of reinforcement, etc. can be accounted in order to analyze life-cycle structural performance and to enable prediction of the structural reliability and safety in time development. The results can serve as a rational basis for design of fibre concrete engineering structures based on advanced nonlinear computer analysis. The presented
Learning System of Web Navigation Patterns through Hypertext Probabilistic Grammars
Cortes Vasquez, Augusto
2015-01-01
One issue of real interest in the area of web data mining is to capture users' activities during connection and extract behavior patterns that help define their preferences in order to improve the design of future pages adapting websites interfaces to individual users. This research is intended to provide, first of all, a presentation of the…
Probabilistic neural network playing and learning Tic-Tac-Toe
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Grim, Jiří; Somol, Petr; Pudil, Pavel
2005-01-01
Roč. 26, č. 12 (2005), s. 1866-1873 ISSN 0167-8655 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/02/1271; GA ČR GA402/03/1310; GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant - others:Comission EU(XE) FP6-507772 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : neural networks * distribution mixtures * playing game s Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.138, year: 2005
Dropout Prediction in E-Learning Courses through the Combination of Machine Learning Techniques
Lykourentzou, Ioanna; Giannoukos, Ioannis; Nikolopoulos, Vassilis; Mpardis, George; Loumos, Vassili
2009-01-01
In this paper, a dropout prediction method for e-learning courses, based on three popular machine learning techniques and detailed student data, is proposed. The machine learning techniques used are feed-forward neural networks, support vector machines and probabilistic ensemble simplified fuzzy ARTMAP. Since a single technique may fail to…
The LaSalle probabilistic safety analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Frederick, L.G.; Massin, H.L.; Crane, G.R.
1987-01-01
A probabilistic safety analysis has been performed for LaSalle County Station, a twin-unit General Electric BWR5 Mark II nuclear power plant. A primary objective of this PSA is to provide engineers with a useful and useable tool for making design decisions, performing technical specification optimization, evaluating proposed regulatory changes to equipment and procedures, and as an aid in operator training. Other objectives are to identify the hypothetical accident sequences that would contribute to core damage frequency, and to provide assurance that the total expected frequency of core-damaging accidents is below 10 -4 per reactor-year in response to suggested goals. (orig./HSCH)
Probabilistic double guarantee kidnapping detection in SLAM.
Tian, Yang; Ma, Shugen
2016-01-01
For determining whether kidnapping has happened and which type of kidnapping it is while a robot performs autonomous tasks in an unknown environment, a double guarantee kidnapping detection (DGKD) method has been proposed. The good performance of DGKD in a relative small environment is shown. However, a limitation of DGKD is found in a large-scale environment by our recent work. In order to increase the adaptability of DGKD in a large-scale environment, an improved method called probabilistic double guarantee kidnapping detection is proposed in this paper to combine probability of features' positions and the robot's posture. Simulation results demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the proposed method.
Deterministic and probabilistic approach to safety analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Heuser, F.W.
1980-01-01
The examples discussed in this paper show that reliability analysis methods fairly well can be applied in order to interpret deterministic safety criteria in quantitative terms. For further improved extension of applied reliability analysis it has turned out that the influence of operational and control systems and of component protection devices should be considered with the aid of reliability analysis methods in detail. Of course, an extension of probabilistic analysis must be accompanied by further development of the methods and a broadening of the data base. (orig.)
Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pulkkinen, U.
1989-01-01
Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.
Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip
2015-12-01
Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.
Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.
1984-01-01
A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)
Probabilistic Forecasting of the Wave Energy Flux
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pinson, Pierre; Reikard, G.; Bidlot, J.-R.
2012-01-01
Wave energy will certainly have a significant role to play in the deployment of renewable energy generation capacities. As with wind and solar, probabilistic forecasts of wave power over horizons of a few hours to a few days are required for power system operation as well as trading in electricit......% and 70% in terms of Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS), depending upon the test case and the lead time. It is finally shown that the log-Normal assumption can be seen as acceptable, even though it may be refined in the future....
Probabilistic Analysis of the Quality Calculus
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielson, Hanne Riis; Nielson, Flemming
2013-01-01
We consider a fragment of the Quality Calculus, previously introduced for defensive programming of software components such that it becomes natural to plan for default behaviour in case the ideal behaviour fails due to unreliable communication. This paper develops a probabilistically based trust...... analysis supporting the Quality Calculus. It uses information about the probabilities that expected input will be absent in order to determine the trustworthiness of the data used for controlling the distributed system; the main challenge is to take accord of the stochastic dependency between some...
Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perkins, W.C.
1984-01-01
The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures
Optimisation of technical specifications using probabilistic methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ericsson, G.; Knochenhauer, M.; Hultqvist, G.
1986-01-01
During the last few years the development of methods for modifying and optimising nuclear power plant Technical Specifications (TS) for plant operations has received increased attention. Probalistic methods in general, and the plant and system models of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in particular, seem to provide the most forceful tools for optimisation. This paper first gives some general comments on optimisation, identifying important parameters and then gives a description of recent Swedish experiences from the use of nuclear power plant PSA models and results for TS optimisation
Probabilistic model for sterilization of food
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chepurko, V.V.; Malinovskij, O.V.
1986-01-01
The probabilistic model for radiation sterilization is proposed based on the followng suppositions: (1) initial contamination of a volume unit of the sterilized product m is described by the distribution of the probabilities q(m), (2) inactivation of the population from m of microorganisms is approximated by Bernoulli test scheme, and (3) contamination of unit of the sterilized product is independent. The possibility of approximation q(m) by Poisson distribution is demonstrated. The diagrams are presented permitting to evaluate the dose which provides the defined reliability of sterilization of food for chicken-gnotobionts
Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schmalz, F.
1991-01-01
In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs
Probabilistic and Statistical Aspects of Quantum Theory
Holevo, Alexander S
2011-01-01
This book is devoted to aspects of the foundations of quantum mechanics in which probabilistic and statistical concepts play an essential role. The main part of the book concerns the quantitative statistical theory of quantum measurement, based on the notion of positive operator-valued measures. During the past years there has been substantial progress in this direction, stimulated to a great extent by new applications such as Quantum Optics, Quantum Communication and high-precision experiments. The questions of statistical interpretation, quantum symmetries, theory of canonical commutation re
Quantitative analysis of probabilistic BPMN workflows
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin
2012-01-01
We present a framework for modelling and analysis of realworld business workflows. We present a formalised core subset of the Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN) and then proceed to extend this language with probabilistic nondeterministic branching and general-purpose reward annotations...... of events, reward-based properties and best- and worst- case scenarios. We develop a simple example of medical workflow and demonstrate the utility of this analysis in accurate provisioning of drug stocks. Finally, we suggest a path to building upon these techniques to cover the entire BPMN language, allow...
Quantum correlations support probabilistic pure state cloning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Roa, Luis, E-mail: lroa@udec.cl [Departamento de Física, Universidad de Concepción, Casilla 160-C, Concepción (Chile); Alid-Vaccarezza, M.; Jara-Figueroa, C. [Departamento de Física, Universidad de Concepción, Casilla 160-C, Concepción (Chile); Klimov, A.B. [Departamento de Física, Universidad de Guadalajara, Avenida Revolución 1500, 44420 Guadalajara, Jalisco (Mexico)
2014-02-01
The probabilistic scheme for making two copies of two nonorthogonal pure states requires two auxiliary systems, one for copying and one for attempting to project onto the suitable subspace. The process is performed by means of a unitary-reduction scheme which allows having a success probability of cloning different from zero. The scheme becomes optimal when the probability of success is maximized. In this case, a bipartite state remains as a free degree which does not affect the probability. We find bipartite states for which the unitarity does not introduce entanglement, but does introduce quantum discord between some involved subsystems.