VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

2005-01-01

Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

Uncertainty analysis with a view towards applications in accident consequence assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, F.; Erhardt, J.

1985-09-01

Since the publication of the US-Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 there has been an increasing interest to develop and apply methods which allow to quantify the uncertainty inherent in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and accident consequence assessments (ACAs) for installations of the nuclear fuel cycle. Research and development in this area is forced by the fact that PRA and ACA are more and more used for comparative, decisive and fact finding studies initiated by industry and regulatory commissions. This report summarizes and reviews some of the main methods and gives some hints to do sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Some first investigations aiming at the application of the method mentioned above to a submodel of the ACA-code UFOMOD (KfK) are presented. Sensitivity analyses and some uncertainty studies an important submodel of UFOMOD are carried out to identify the relevant parameters for subsequent uncertainty calculations. (orig./HP) [de

CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MEASURING EQUIPMENT USING STATISTIC METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel POLÁK

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Capability assessment of the measurement device is one of the methods of process quality control. Only in case the measurement device is capable, the capability of the measurement and consequently production process can be assessed. This paper deals with assessment of the capability of the measuring device using indices Cg and Cgk.

A simple assessment scheme for severe accident consequences using release parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva, Kampanart, E-mail: kampanarts@tint.or.th [Thailand Institute of Nuclear Technology, 16 Vibhavadi-Rangsit Rd., Latyao, Chatuchak, 10900 (Thailand); Okamoto, Koji [The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8654 (Japan)

2016-08-15

Highlights: • Nuclear accident consequence index can assess overall consequences of an accident. • Correlations between the index and release parameters are developed. • Relation between the index and release amount follows power function. • The exponent of the power function is the key to the relation. - Abstract: Nuclear accident consequence index (NACI) which can assess the overall consequences of a severe accident on people and the environment is developed based on findings from previous studies. It consists of three indices: radiation effect index, relocation index and decontamination index. Though the NACI can cover large range of consequences, its assessment requires extensive resources. The authors then attempt to simplify the assessment, by investigating the relations between the release parameters and the NACI, in order to use the release parameters for severe accident consequence assessment instead of the NACI. NACI and its components increase significantly when the release amount is increased, while the influences of the release period and the release starting time on the NACI are nearly negligible. Relations between the release amount and the NACI and its components follow simple power functions (y = ax{sup b}). The exponent of the power functions seems to be the key to the relations. The exponent of the relation between the release amount and the NACI was around 0.8–1.0 when the release amount is smaller than 100 TBq, and it increased to around 1.3–1.4 when the release amount is equal to or larger than 100 TBq.

Probabilistic consequence assessment of hydrogen sulphide releases from a heavy water plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baynes, C.J.

1986-05-01

This report provides a summary of work carried out on behalf of the Atomic Energy Control Board, concerned with the consequences of accidental releases to the atmosphere of hydrogen sulphide (H 2 S) at a heavy water plant. In this study, assessments of consequences are made in terms of the probabilities of a range of possible outcomes, i.e., numbers of fatalities, given a certain release scenario. The report describes the major features of a computer model which was developed to calculate the consequences and their associated probabilities, and the major input data used in applying the model to a consequence assessment of the Bruce heavy water plant (HWP) in Ontario. The results of the sensitivity analyses of the model are summarized. Finally, the results of the consequence assessments of 43 accidental release scenarios at the Bruce HWP are summarized, together with a number of conclusions which were drawn from these results regarding the predicted consequences and the factors which influence them

Proceedings of the Seminar on Methods and Codes for Assessing the off-site consequences of nuclear accidents. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, G.N.; Luykx, F.

1991-01-01

The Commission of the European Communities, within the framework of its 1980-84 radiation protection research programme, initiated a two-year project in 1983 entitled 'methods for assessing the radiological impact of accidents' (Maria). This project was continued in a substantially enlarged form within the 1985-89 research programme. The main objectives of the project were, firstly, to develop a new probabilistic accident consequence code that was modular, incorporated the best features of those codes already in use, could be readily modified to take account of new data and model developments and would be broadly applicable within the EC; secondly, to acquire a better understanding of the limitations of current models and to develop more rigorous approaches where necessary; and, thirdly, to quantify the uncertainties associated with the model predictions. This research led to the development of the accident consequence code Cosyma (COde System from MAria), which will be made generally available later in 1990. The numerous and diverse studies that have been undertaken in support of this development are summarized in this paper, together with indications of where further effort might be most profitably directed. Consideration is also given to related research directed towards the development of real-time decision support systems for use in off-site emergency management

A radiological accident consequence assessment system for Hong Kong

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, M.C.; Lam, H.K.

1993-01-01

An account is given of the Hong Kong Radiological Accident Consequence Assessment System which would be used to assess the potential consequences of an emergency situation involving atmospheric release of radioactive material. The system has the capability to acquire real-time meteorological information from the Observatory's network of automatic stations, synoptic stations in the nearby region as well as forecast data from numerical prediction models. The system makes use of these data to simulate the transport and dispersion of the released radioactive material. The effectiveness of protective action on the local population is also modeled. The system serves as a powerful aid in the protective action recommendation processes

Assessment of Workplace Stress: Occupational Stress, Its Consequences, and Common Causes of Teacher Stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Jo-Ida; Sullivan, Brandon A.

This chapter introduces teachers and other education professionals to the assessment of occupational stress. It begins with a brief discussion of what occupational stress is, and overview of the consequences of prolonged stress, and a review of the common causes of teacher stress. Next, it presents methods for reducing occupational stress through…

Cost per severe accident as an index for severe accident consequence assessment and its applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Kampanart; Ishiwatari, Yuki; Takahara, Shogo

2014-01-01

The Fukushima Accident emphasizes the need to integrate the assessments of health effects, economic impacts, social impacts and environmental impacts, in order to perform a comprehensive consequence assessment of severe accidents in nuclear power plants. “Cost per severe accident” is introduced as an index for that purpose. The calculation methodology, including the consequence analysis using level 3 probabilistic risk assessment code OSCAAR and the calculation method of the cost per severe accident, is proposed. This methodology was applied to a virtual 1,100 MWe boiling water reactor. The breakdown of the cost per severe accident was provided. The radiation effect cost, the relocation cost and the decontamination cost were the three largest components. Sensitivity analyses were carried out, and parameters sensitive to cost per severe accident were specified. The cost per severe accident was compared with the amount of source terms, to demonstrate the performance of the cost per severe accident as an index to evaluate severe accident consequences. The ways to use the cost per severe accident for optimization of radiation protection countermeasures and for estimation of the effects of accident management strategies are discussed as its applications. - Highlights: • Cost per severe accident is used for severe accident consequence assessment. • Assessments of health, economic, social and environmental impacts are included. • Radiation effect, relocation and decontamination costs are important cost components. • Cost per severe accident can be used to optimize radiation protection measures. • Effects of accident management can be estimated using the cost per severe accident

Ex-plant consequence assessment for NUREG-1150: models, typical results, uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sprung, J.L.

1988-01-01

The assessment of ex-plant consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms was performed using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). This paper briefly discusses the following elements of MACCS consequence calculations: input data, phenomena modeled, computational framework, typical results, controlling phenomena, and uncertainties. Wherever possible, NUREG-1150 results will be used to illustrate the discussion. 28 references

Estimates of mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean associated with low-probability seismic events in total system performance assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James

2007-01-01

An approach is described to estimate mean consequences and confidence bounds on the mean of seismic events with low probability of breaching components of the engineered barrier system. The approach is aimed at complementing total system performance assessment models used to understand consequences of scenarios leading to radionuclide releases in geologic nuclear waste repository systems. The objective is to develop an efficient approach to estimate mean consequences associated with seismic events of low probability, employing data from a performance assessment model with a modest number of Monte Carlo realizations. The derived equations and formulas were tested with results from a specific performance assessment model. The derived equations appear to be one method to estimate mean consequences without having to use a large number of realizations. (authors)

Preliminary results of consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident using Thai meteorological data

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, K.; Lawawirojwong, S.; Promping, J.

2017-06-01

Consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident is one of the important elements of the risk assessment of a nuclear power plant. It is widely known that the meteorological conditions can significantly influence the outcomes of such assessment, since it determines the results of the calculation of the radionuclide environmental transport. This study aims to assess the impacts of the meteorological conditions to the results of the consequence assessment. The consequence assessment code, OSCAAR, of Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is used for the assessment. The results of the consequence assessment using Thai meteorological data are compared with those using Japanese meteorological data. The Thai case has following characteristics. Low wind speed made the radionuclides concentrate at the center comparing to the Japanese case. The squalls induced the peaks in the ground concentration distribution. The evacuated land is larger than the Japanese case though the relocated land is smaller, which is attributed to the concentration of the radionuclides near the release point.

A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

2016-08-01

Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

Testing of an accident consequence assessment model using field data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsubara, Takeshi; Tomita, Kenichi

2007-01-01

This paper presents the results obtained from the application of an accident consequence assessment model, OSCAAR to the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS and also to the Chernobyl 131 I fallout scenario of EMRAS, both organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The Iput Scenario deals with 137 Cs contamination of the catchment basin and agricultural area in the Bryansk Region of Russia, which was heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. This exercise was used to test the chronic exposure pathway models in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect to each part of the assessment. The OSCAAR chronic exposure pathway models had some limitations but the refined model, COLINA almost successfully reconstructed the whole 10-year time course of 137 Cs activity concentrations in most requested types of agricultural products and natural foodstuffs. The Plavsk scenario provides a good opportunity to test not only the food chain transfer model of 131 I but also the method of assessing 131 I thyroid burden. OSCAAR showed in general good capabilities for assessing the important 131 I exposure pathways. (author)

The application research of MACCS in consequence assessment of the attacked Dayabay Nuclear Power Station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Yuan; Dong Binjiang

2003-01-01

The method of radiological consequence assessment as Dayabay nuclear power station being attacked in war is studied in this paper. The Models and software of calculation and the parameters which have been chosen are also studied in this paper. This study estimates the off-site consequences of two different types of being attack accidents spectrum and the spent fuel pool being attacked accidents spectrum. This study calculated the distributing of radiological consequence in different weather. According to the analyse of the consequence, we get such result that the radiate consequence of nuclear reactor of Daya Bay nuclear power plant being attack in war is the same as the consequence of nuclear accident, but the consequence of spent fuel pool being attacked is very serious. If the spent fuel pool was attacked by the enemy, the contaminated area is very large. The effective dose within 30 km under the wind will exceed 1 Sv. Based in part upon the above information the recommendation is made that the Daya Bay nuclear power plant should be closed or run in low power. and the nuclear island should be protected in war. (authors)

Chernobyl radiological data for accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bottino, A.; Sacripanti, A.

1989-01-01

In this draft is presented the results of a first effort to summarize information related to the radionuclides behaviour in rural areas, in order to estimate pathway parameters to assess accident consequences. This topic encloses relevant aspects concerning contamination of rural environment, the most important being: 1) dry deposition velocities; 2) washout coefficient; 3) accumulation in lakes; 4) migration in soil; 5) winter conditions; 6) filtering effects of forests

Application of GIS in prediction and assessment system of off-site accident consequence for NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xingyu; Shi Zhongqi

2002-01-01

The assessment and prediction software system of off-site accident consequence for Guangdong Nuclear Power Plant (GNARD2.0) is a GIS-based software system. The spatial analysis of radioactive materials and doses with geographic information is available in this system. The structure and functions of the GNARD system and the method of applying ArcView GIS are presented

[Caregiving consequences in mental disorders--definitions and instruments of assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Ciałkowska-Kuźmińska, Magdalena; Kiejna, Andrzej

2010-01-01

Severe mental illnesses have far-reaching consequences for both patients and their relatives. This paper reviews literature on the measures of caregiving consequences. Authors provide a condensed knowledge and research results in the area of caregiving consequences, especially both subjective and objective caregivers' burden. The consequences of care apply to carers' social and leisure activities, financial status, health condition. The burden of care has three fundamental causes: the reorganisation of mental health services, a social isolation of patients and their families and the lack of systemic support for caregivers. The problem of caregiving consequences has been investigated in several studies. In order to identify factors, which have impact on caregiver distress, a variety instruments have been developed. This paper focuses on questionnaires useful for the systematic assessment of both objective and subjective burden: Involvement Evaluation Questionnaire (IEQ), Perceived Family Burden Scale (PFBS), Zarit Caregiver Burden Scale (ZCBS), Experience of Caregiving Inventory (ECI), Family Problems Questionnaire (FPQ). The mentioned instruments proved to be a reliable instrument for measuring caregiver consequences in mental healthcare.

Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

2011-05-15

In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The radiological assessment system for consequence analysis - RASCAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoreen, A.L.; Ramsdell, J.V.; Athey, G.F.

1996-01-01

The Radiological Assessment System for Consequence Analysis, Version 2.1 (RASCAL 2.1) has been developed for use during a response to radiological emergencies. The model estimates doses for comparison with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Protective Action Guides (PAGs) and thresholds for acute health effects. RASCAL was designed to be used by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) personnel who report to the site of a nuclear accident to conduct an independent evaluation of dose and consequence projections and personnel who conduct training and drills on emergency responses. It allows consideration of the dominant aspects of the source term, transport, dose, and consequences. RASCAL consists of three computational tools: ST-DOSE, FM-DOSE, and DECAY. ST-DOSE computes source term, atmospheric transport, and dose to man from accidental airborne releases of radionuclides. The source-term calculations are appropriate for accidents at U.S. power reactors. FM-DOSE computes doses from environmental concentrations of radionuclides in the air and on the ground. DECAY computes radiological decay and daughter in-growth. RASCAL 2.1 is a DOS application that can be run under Windows 3.1 and 95. RASCAL has been the starting point for other accident consequence models, notably INTERRAS, an international version of RASCAL, and HASCAL, an expansion of RASCAL that will model radiological, biological, and chemical accidents

Risk assessment and consequence modeling of BLEVE explosion wave phenomenon of LPG spherical tank in a refinery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Kamaei

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Although human industrial activities are as a part of efforts to achieve greater prosperity, the risks related to these activities are also expanding. Hazard identification and risk assessment in the oil and gas industries are essential to reduce the frequency and severity of accidents and minimize damage to people and property before their occurrence. The aim of this study was to evaluate the liquefied and pressurized petroleum gas spherical tanks in a refinery and assessing the risks of Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE phenomenon. Material and Method: In this study, the risks of BLEVE phenomenon were assessed, using the Bowtie method. The consequences of explosion wave phenomenon and the resulting wave quantity and its impacts on the neighboring machineries and equipment were analyzed. PHAST software version 6.54 has been used for modeling the BLEVE phenomenon. Result: In this evaluation, generally five causes and two consequences were identified for BLEVE phenomenon. In order to reduce its consequences, forty-three controlling measures were introduced to prevent the BLEVE phenomenon and the impacts of 31 control measures were identified. According to the conducted analysis, it was found that the spherical tank blast wave caused by LPG can lead to explosion of close located tanks which can create a chain of explosions. Conclusion: The results of modeling and risk assessment can be used to identify the BLEVE phenomenon causes and its effects on nearby people and equipment. Based on these results, preventive controlling measures can be implemented and also be determined by adopting proper design and layout, margin of safety for personnel, equipment and accessories.

The full size validation of remanent life assessment methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hepworth, J.K.; Williams, J.A.

1988-03-01

A range of possible life assessment techniques for the remanent life appraisal of creeping structures is available in the published literature. However, due to the safety implications, the true conservatism of such methods cannot be assessed on operating plant. Consequently, the CEGB set up a four vessel programme in the Pressure Vessel Test Facility at the Marchwood Engineering Laboratories of the CEGB to underwrite and quantify the accuracy of these methods. The application of two non-destructive methods, namely strain monitoring and hardness measurement, to the data generated during about 12,000 hours of testing is examined. The current state of development of these methods is reviewed. Finally, the future CEGB programme relating to these vessels is discussed. (author)

Development of a Methodology for VHTR Accident Consequence Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Joeun; Kim, Jintae; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

The substitution of the VHTR for burning fossil fuels conserves these hydrocarbon resources for other uses and eliminates the emissions of greenhouse. In Korea, for these reasons, constructing the VHTR plan for hydrogen production is in progress. In this study, the consequence analysis for the off-site releases of radioactive materials during severe accidents has been performed using the level 3 PRA technology. The offsite consequence analysis for a VHTR using the MACCS code has been performed. Since the passive system such as the RCCS(Reactor Cavity Cooling System) are equipped, the frequency of occurrence of accidents has been evaluated to be very low. For further study, the assessment for characteristic of VHTR safety system and precise quantification of its accident scenarios is expected to conduct more certain consequence analysis. This methodology shown in this study might contribute to enhancing the safety of VHTR design by utilizing the results having far lower effect on the environment than the LWRs.

Assessment of the environmental consequences of demolishing two Russian nuclear submarines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

Norway has financed the demolition of two Russian Viktor II nuclear submarines through the Government's plan of action for nuclear issues. The British company Enviros Consulting has made an independent assessment of the environmental consequences of the project, which has been evaluated by the Foreign Department in cooperation with The Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority (NRPA). The consequence assessment has examined the health, environment and safety aspects of the entire demolition process, from towing the submarine to delivering the rubbish at the destination site. From Russian documentation and by visiting the shipyards it has been concluded that the demolition has been carried out in agreement with Russian law and in accordance with international instructions

The importance of long range atmospheric transport in probabilistic accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ApSimon, H.M.; Goddard, A.J.H.; Wilson, J.J.N.

1988-01-01

The disaster at the Chernobyl-4 reactor has demonstrated that severe nuclear accidents can give rise to significant radiological consequences several thousand kilometres from the source. The subsequent dispersion of the release over much of Western Europe further demonstrated the importance of synoptic scale weather patterns in determining the magnitude of the consequences of such accidents. A version of the MESOS-II European scale trajectory model, which is able to simulate large scale variations in weather conditions through the use of spatially and temporally variable meteorological input data, has been used to simulate the pattern of dispersion from Chernobyl with some success. This paper presents the results of probabilistic consequence assessments for a number of West European sites, made using the MESOS-II model. The results illustrate the effects, on probabilistic assessments, of using a more realistic treatment of long range atmospheric transport than the Gaussian plume model and also the spatial variation in the distributions of consequences arising from the variation in synoptic scale weather conditions across Western Europe

The reality of life safety consequence classification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartford, D.N.D.; Assaf, H.; Kerr, I.R.

1999-01-01

Because empirical methods of consequence estimation were not designed for application in risk analysis for dam safety, BC Hydro developed its own method for determining loss of life due to dam failures as part of the development of the risk analysis process. Because loss of life estimation for consequence classification entails the generation of essentially the same information, the method can also be used to determine the consequence category of the dam for life safety considerations, and the model can be extended to third party property damage. The methodology adopted for dealing with life safety differs considerably from the empirical approach by modelling the response of the downstream population to a dam failure flood. The algorithm simulates the response of various groups of populations to the warnings of dam failure and the physical process of fleeing from the areas of potential innundation. Assessing the life safety consequences of dam failure is a first step in estimating dam safety in terms of CDA Guidelines, and empirical methods in use are not suitable for determining loss of life due to dam failures. The process described herein is the only physically based method available for estimating loss of life due to dam failures required by the Dam Safety Guidelines. The model is transparent, logically sound, and has been peer reviewed. The method provides a rational basis for the first step in performing safety assessments of dams in terms of the Guidelines, particularly high consequence dams. 8 refs., 3 figs

MARC - the NRPB methodology for assessing radiological consequences of accidental releases of activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, R.H.; Kelly, G.N.

1981-12-01

The National Radiological Protection Board has developed a methodology for the assessment of the public health related consequences of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear facilities. The methodology consists of a suite of computer programs which predict the transfer of activity from the point of release to the atmosphere through to the population. The suite of programs is entitled MARC; Methodology for Assessing Radiological Consequences. This report describes the overall framework and philosophy utilised within MARC. (author)

Towards more realistic assessment of reactor accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tveten, U.

1985-07-01

The purpose of the Nordic project described in the report has been to improve the data base used in accident consequence assessments, and also to improve the assessment models in use in the Nordic countries. The following data related questions have been dealt with: Terrestrial transfer factors, the freshwater pathways, comparison of dynamic and static calculation models for fish, and the shielding effect of buildings. The work on terrestrial transfer factors has resulted in the generation of a Nordic fallout data bank. The following experimental investigations have been performed: Natural decontamination of roofs under summer and winter conditions, deposition in urban areas, and the filter effect of buildings. Various aspects of mitigating actions have also been examined

Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 7. Environmental transport and consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritchie, L.T.; Alpert, D.J.; Burke, R.P.; Ostmeyer, R.M.; Kaiser, G.D.; Runkle, G.E.; Woodard, K.

1985-08-01

Consequence models have been designed to assess health and economic risks from potential accidents at nuclear power plants. These models have been applied to an ever increasing variety of problems with ever increasing demands to improve modeling capabilities and provide greater realism. This course discusses the environmental transport of postulated radiological releases and the elements and purpose of accident consequence evaluation

Drinking Water Consequences Tools. A Literature Review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-05-12

In support of the goals of Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) National Protection and Programs Directorate and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the DHS Office of Science and Technology is seeking to develop and/or modify consequence assessment tools to enable drinking water systems owner/operators to estimate the societal and economic consequences of drinking water disruption due to the threats and hazards. This work will expand the breadth of consequence estimation methods and tools using the best-available data describing water distribution infrastructure, owner/assetlevel economic losses, regional-scale economic activity, and health. In addition, this project will deploy the consequence methodology and capability within a Web-based platform. This report is intended to support DHS effort providing a review literature review of existing assessment tools of water and wastewater systems consequences to disruptions. The review includes tools that assess water systems resilience, vulnerability, and risk. This will help to understand gaps and limitations of these tools in order to plan for the development of the next-generation consequences tool for water and waste water systems disruption.

A methodology for overall consequence modeling in chemical industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

2009-01-01

Risk assessment in chemical process industry is a very important issue for safeguarding human and the ecosystem from damages caused to them. Consequence assessment is an integral part of risk assessment. However, the commonly used consequence estimation methods involve time-consuming complex mathematical models and simple assimilation of losses without considering all the consequence factors. This lead to the deterioration of quality of estimated risk value. So, the consequence modeling has to be performed in detail considering all major losses with optimal time to improve the decisive value of risk. The losses can be broadly categorized into production loss, assets loss, human health and safety loss, and environment loss. In this paper, a conceptual framework is developed to assess the overall consequence considering all the important components of major losses. Secondly, a methodology is developed for the calculation of all the major losses, which are normalized to yield the overall consequence. Finally, as an illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to a case study plant involving benzene extraction. The case study result using the proposed consequence assessment scheme is compared with that from the existing methodologies.

Applicability of PRA methods and data to the financial risk assessment of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Sheik, K.A.

1985-01-01

Financial risk assessment, where the probability and severity of financial consequences are estimated, offers a logical framework for organizing and evaluating data pertinent to nuclear power plant accidents. Under the sponsorship of the Electric Power Research Institute, General Electric investigated the feasibility of financial risk assessment of nuclear power plants and of applying PRA methods and data in such an assessment. This paper summarizes the main findings of this investigation. Specifically, the paper discussed the following topics: definition of financial consequences and financial risk; overall approach for financial risk assessment and how it compares with the approach for PRA used in the Reactor Safety Study; and specific financial risk assessment procedures for defining initiating events, plant response sequences, institutional scenarios, and financial consequences and how they compare to analogous procedures for PRA

A study on the weather sampling method for probabilistic consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Hae Cheol

1996-02-01

The main task of probabilistic accident consequence analysis model is to predict the radiological situation and to provide a reliable quantitative data base for making decisions on countermeasures. The magnitude of accident consequence is depended on the characteristic of the accident and the weather coincident. In probabilistic accident consequence analysis, it is necessary to repeat the atmospheric dispersion calculation with several hundreds of weather sequences to predict the full distribution of consequences which may occur following a postulated accident release. It is desirable to select a representative sample of weather sequences from a meteorological record which is typical of the area over which the released radionuclides will disperse and which spans a sufficiently long period. The selection process is done by means of sampling techniques from a full year of hourly weather data characteristic of the plant site. In this study, the proposed Weighted importance sampling method selects proportional to the each bin size to closely approximate the true frequency distribution of weather condition at the site. The Weighted importance sampling method results in substantially less sampling uncertainty than the previous technique. The proposed technique can result in improve confidence in risk estimates

Applications of Probabilistic Consequence Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Plant Management (invited paper)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boardman, J.; Pearce, K.I.; Ponting, A.C.

2000-01-01

Probabilistic Consequence Assessment (PCA) models describe the dispersion of released radioactive materials and predict the resulting interaction with and influence on the environment and man. Increasing use is being made of PCA tools as an input to the evaluation and improvement of safety for nuclear installations. The nature and extent of the assessment performed varies considerably according to its intended purpose. Nevertheless with the increasing use of such techniques, greater attention has been given to the reliability of the methods used and the inherent uncertainty associated with their predictions. Uncertainty analyses can provide the decision-maker with information to quantify how uncertain the answer is and what drives that uncertainty. They often force a review of the baseline assumptions for any PCA methodology and provide a benchmark against which the impact of further changes in models and recommendations can be compared. This process provides valuable management information to help prioritise further actions or research. (author)

Consequence assessment of floating and storage and off loading (FPSO) systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Duncan; Alderman, John A.

2000-01-01

Floating Production, Storage and Off loading (FPSO) systems are increasingly being used for deep water fields where use of traditional platforms and pipelines is not cost effective. The risks associated with FPSOs are inherently different from those for onshore facilities and conventional offshore platforms.This paper focuses on some of the key issues in the application of consequence assessment to FPSOs. A review and illustration of some of the techniques used for analysis of hydrocarbon hazards associated with FPSO operations will be included. Examples covered include evaluation of heat fluxes from a jet fire from an ignited riser leak and evaluation of explosion overpressure from a gas release on the main deck of the FPSO using ARAMAS. The assessment of the impact of smoke inhalation to personnel taking shelter in the accommodation block of the FPSO during a large fire event is also explained. Experiences gained from consequence assessments and quantitative risk analyses performed for offshore platforms, FPSOs, Floating Storage and Off loading (FSO) systems, as well as onshore refinery and petrochemical facilities will be detailed. (author)

Analysis the Human and Environmental Consequences of Power Pplants Using Combined Delphi and AHP Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jozi, S. A.; Saffarian, Sh.; Shafiee, M.; Akbari, A.

2016-01-01

Power plants, due to the nature of their processes and activities and also by producing the effluents, emitting the air pollutants and hazardous wastes, have the potential to cause negative human and environmental consequences. Given the importance of the issue, for determining the most important consequences of Abadan Gas Power Plant and also their impact on the human and natural environment, as a case study, a questionnaire was developed with Delphi method. This questionnaire was distributed within the environmentalists and experts of power plant. The human and environmental consequences of Power Plant were analyzed by Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods including AHP and eigenvector technique. For this purpose, with applying of AHP method, the hierarchical structure of the human and environmental consequences of Abadan Gas Power Plant was constructed and then the decision making matrix was formed. The pair wise matrices were formed separately for criteria pair wise comparisons with respect to severity and occurrence probability of indoor and outdoor environment of power plant .With entering the data in EXPERT CHOICE software, criteria weights were computed with applying the eigenvector method. Then the final weights of consequences in terms of severity and occurrence probability of risk were computed. The results from the compution of Abadan Gas Power Plant consequences indicate that in human consequences, shallow wounds with a .105 weight and in environmental consequences, air pollution by weighing 0.66 are the most important consequences of power plant. Finally, the most important executable strategies and actions for mitigation of negative human and environmental consequences were presented.

Unsafe abortion in urban and rural Tanzania: method, provider and consequences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasch, Vibeke; Kipingili, Rose

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To describe unsafe abortion methods and associated health consequences in Tanzania, where induced abortion is restricted by law but common and known to account for a disproportionate share of hospital admissions. METHOD: Cross-sectional study of women admitted with alleged miscarriage...

Assessments of high-consequence platforms: Issues and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Digre, K.A.; Craig, M.J.K.

1994-01-01

An API task group has developed a process for the assessment of existing platforms to determine their fitness for purpose. This has been released as a draft supplement to API RP 2A-WSD, 20th edition. Details and the background of this work are described in a companion paper. The assessment of a platform's fitness for purpose involves firstly a definition of the platform's exposure; and secondly, an evaluation of the platform's predicted performance relative to the assessment criteria associated with that exposure. This paper deals with platforms in the high exposure category. That is, platforms whose potential failure consequences, in terms of potential life loss and environmental damage, are significant. The criteria for placement of a platform in a high exposure category are explained, as are the performance criteria demanded of these high exposure platforms. In the companion paper, the metocean assessment process and associated API-developed acceptance criteria are highlighted. This paper addresses primarily ice and seismic loading assessments and associated API-developed criteria, which are based on over thirty years of successful offshore operation and field experience, as well as extrapolation of land-based performance criteria. Three West Coast, USA production platforms are used for illustration

Joint CEC/OECD(NEA) workshop on recent advances in reactor accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olast, M.; Sinnaeve, J.

1988-01-01

The workshop on probabilistic accident consequence assessment techniques and their applications aims at a review of the present knowledge of all the work in this field. This includes the atmospheric dispersion and deposition modelling, with comparison of the different approaches, the exposure pathways with emphasis on post-deposition processes, the health effects with emphasis on the consequences of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki data re-evaluation, the countermeasures and their economic consequences, the uncertainty analysis of the models and finally the applications of these models as aids to decision making

Experience with COSYMA in an international intercomparison of probabilistic accident consequence assessment codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasemann, I.; Jones, J.A.; Steen, J. van der; Wonderen, E. van

1996-01-01

The Commission of the European Communities and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD have organized an international exercise to compare the predictions of accident consequence assessment codes, and to identify those features of the models which lead to differences in the predicted results. Alongside this, a further exercise was undertaken in which the COSYMA code was used independently by several different organizations. Some of the findings of the COSYMA users' exercise are described that have general applications to accident consequence assessments. A number of areas are identified in which further work on accident consequence models may be justified. These areas, which are also of interest for codes other than COSYMA, are (a) the calculation and averaging of doses and risks to people sheltered in different types of buildings, particularly with respect to the evaluation of early health effects; (b) the modeling of long-duration releases and their description as a series of shorter releases; (c) meteorological sampling for results at a certain location, specifically for use with trajectory models of atmospheric dispersion; and (d) aspects of calculating probabilities of consequences at a point

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01

This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

1997-06-01

This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses

Formation of decontamination cost calculation model for severe accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Kampanart; Promping, Jiraporn; Okamoto, Koji; Ishiwatari, Yuki

2014-01-01

In previous studies, the authors developed an index “cost per severe accident” to perform a severe accident consequence assessment that can cover various kinds of accident consequences, namely health effects, economic, social and environmental impacts. Though decontamination cost was identified as a major component, it was taken into account using simple and conservative assumptions, which make it difficult to have further discussions. The decontamination cost calculation model was therefore reconsidered. 99 parameters were selected to take into account all decontamination-related issues, and the decontamination cost calculation model was formed. The distributions of all parameters were determined. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method was performed in order to identify important parameters that have large influence on the cost per severe accident and large extent of interactions with other parameters. We identified 25 important parameters, and fixed most negligible parameters to the median of their distributions to form a simplified decontamination cost calculation model. Calculations of cost per severe accident with the full model (all parameters distributed), and with the simplified model were performed and compared. The differences of the cost per severe accident and its components were not significant, which ensure the validity of the simplified model. The simplified model is used to perform a full scope calculation of the cost per severe accident and compared with the previous study. The decontamination cost increased its importance significantly. (author)

Cost-effectiveness analysis of countermeasures using accident consequence assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.

1987-01-01

In the event of a large release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant, protective actions for the population potentially affected must be implemented. Cost-effectiveness analysis will be useful to define the countermeasures and the criteria needed to implement them. This paper shows the application of Accident Consequence Assessment (ACA) models to cost-effectiveness analysis of emergency and long-term countermeasures, making use of the different relationships between dose, contamination levels, affected areas and population distribution, included in such a model. The procedure is illustrated with the new Melcor Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS 1.3), developed at Sandia National Laboratories (USA), for a fixed accident scenario. Different alternative actions are evaluated with regard to their radiological and economical impact, searching for an 'optimum' strategy. (author)

Radiological consequence evaluation of DBAs with alternative source term method for a Chinese PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, J.X.; Cao, X.W.; Tong, L.L.; Huang, G.F.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Radiological consequence evaluation of DBAs with alternative source term method for a Chinese 900 MWe PWR has been investigated. ► Six typical DBA sequences are analyzed. ► The doses of control room, EAB and outer boundary of LPZ are acceptable. ► The differences between AST method and TID-14844 method are investigated. - Abstract: Since a large amount of fission products may releases into the environment, during the accident progression in nuclear power plants (NPPs), which is a potential hazard to public risk, the radiological consequence should be evaluated for alleviating the hazard. In most Chinese NPPs the method of TID-14844, in which the whole body and thyroid dose criteria is employed as dose criteria, is currently adopted to evaluate the radiological consequences for design-basis accidents (DBAs), but, due to the total effective dose equivalent is employed as dose criteria in alternative radiological source terms (AST) method, it is necessary to evaluate the radiological consequences for DBAs with AST method and to discuss the difference between two methods. By using an integral safety analysis code, an analytical model of the 900 MWe pressurized water reactor (PWR) is built and the radiological consequences in DBAs at control room (CR), exclusion area boundary (EAB), low population zone (LPZ) are analyzed, which includes LOCA and non-LOCA DBAs, such as fuel handling accident (FHA), rod ejection accident (REA), main steam line break (MSLB), steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), locked rotor accident (LRA) by using the guidance of the RG 1.183. The results show that the doses in CR, EAB and LPZ are acceptable compared with dose criteria in RG 1.183 and the differences between AST method and TID-14844 method are also discussed.

Risk analysis methods: their importance for safety assessment of practices using radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumenigo, C; Vilaragut, J.J.; Ferro, R.; Guillen, A.; Ramirez, M.L.; Ortiz Lopez, P.; Rodriguez, M.; McDonnell, J.D.; Papadopulos, S.; Pereira, P.P.; Goncalvez, M.; Morales, J.; Larrinaga, E.; Lopez Morones, R.; Sanchez, R.; Delgado, J.M.; Sanchez, C.; Somoano, F.

2008-01-01

Radiation safety has been based for many years on verification of compliance with regulatory requirements, codes of practice and international standards, which can be considered prescriptive methods. Accident analyses have been published, lessons have been learned and safety assessments have incorporated the need to check whether a facility is ready to avoid accidents similar to the reported ones. These approaches can be also called 'reactive methods'. They have in common the fundamental limitation of being restricted to reported experience, but do not take into account other potential events, which were never published or never happened, i.e. latent risks. Moreover, they focus on accident sequences with major consequences and low probability but may not pay enough attention to other sequences leading to lower, but still significant consequences with higher probability. More proactive approaches are, therefore, needed, to assess risk in radiation facilities. They aim at identifying all potential equipment faults and human error, which can lead to predefined unwanted consequences and are based on the general risk equation: Risk = Probability of occurrence of an accidental sequence * magnitude of the consequences. In this work, a review is given of the experience obtained by the countries of the Ibero American Forum of Nuclear and Radiation Safety Regulatory Organizations, by applying proactive methods to radiotherapy practice. In particular, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) used for external beam treatments with linear electron accelerators and two studies, on cobalt 60 therapy and brachytherapy using the risk-matrix approach are presented. The work has identified event sequences, their likelihood of occurrence, the consequences, the efficiency of interlocks and control checks and the global importance in terms of overall risk, to facilitate decision making and implementation of preventive measures. A comparison is presented of advantages and limitations of

Analytical assessment of current insurance as part of management of consequences of emergencies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K.Yu. Polyak

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article examines the current state of the insurance system as a component of managing the consequences of emergencies. The researches are presented in the following areas: the insurance against accidents and fire risks and risks of natural disasters; property insurance (property, goods and agricultural products; the insurance of transport (by modes; liability insurance (by liability. So, the author made the statistical and analytical assessment of consequences of emergencies that was learned through the study of modern insurance system, which enabled to identify the complex of accounting objects in the management of consequences of emergencies.

ARAC: A flexible real-time dose consequence assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellis, J.S.; Sullivan, T.J.

1993-01-01

Since its beginning, the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC), an emergency radiological dose assessment service of the US Government, has been called on to do consequence assessments for releases into the atmosphere of radionuclides and a variety of other substances. Some of the more noteworthy emergency responses have been for the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl nuclear power reactor accidents, and more recently, for a cloud of gases from a rail-car spill into the Sacramento river of the herbicide metam sodium, smoke from hundreds of burning oil wells in Kuwait, and ash clouds from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. The spatial scales of these responses range from local, to regional, to global, and the response periods from hours, to weeks, to months. Because of the variety of requirements of each unique assessment, ARAC has developed and maintains a flexible system of people, computer software and hardware

Probabilistic consequence assessment of hydrogen sulphide releases from a heavy water plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

This report is concerned with the evaluation of the consequences to the public of an accidental release of hydrogen sulphide (H 2 S) to the atmosphere following a pipe or pressure envelope failure, or some other process upset, at a heavy water plant. It covers the first stage of a programme in which the nature of the problem was analyzed and recommendations made for the implementation of a computer model. The concepts of risk assessment and consequence assessment are discussed and a methodology proposed for combining the various elements of the problem into an overall consequence model. These elements are identified as the 'Initiating Events', 'Route to Receptor' and 'Receptor Response' and each is studied in detail in the report. Such phenomena as the blowdown of H 2 S from a rupture, the initial gas cloud behaviour, atmospheric dispersion and the toxicity of H 2 S and sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) are addressed. Critical factors are identified and modelling requirements specified, with special reference to the Bruce heavy water plant. Finally, an overall model is recommended for implementation at the next stage of the programme, together with detailed terms of reference for the remaining work

An examination of the consequences in high consequence operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spray, S.D.; Cooper, J.A.

1996-06-01

Traditional definitions of risk partition concern into the probability of occurrence and the consequence of the event. Most safety analyses focus on probabilistic assessment of an occurrence and the amount of some measurable result of the event, but the real meaning of the ``consequence`` partition is usually afforded less attention. In particular, acceptable social consequence (consequence accepted by the public) frequently differs significantly from the metrics commonly proposed by risk analysts. This paper addresses some of the important system development issues associated with consequences, focusing on ``high consequence operations safety.``

COMPARISON OF CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS RESULTS FROM TWO METHODS OF PROCESSING SITE METEOROLOGICAL DATA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

, D

2007-01-01

Consequence analysis to support documented safety analysis requires the use of one or more years of representative meteorological data for atmospheric transport and dispersion calculations. At minimum, the needed meteorological data for most atmospheric transport and dispersion models consist of hourly samples of wind speed and atmospheric stability class. Atmospheric stability is inferred from measured and/or observed meteorological data. Several methods exist to convert measured and observed meteorological data into atmospheric stability class data. In this paper, one year of meteorological data from a western Department of Energy (DOE) site is processed to determine atmospheric stability class using two methods. The method that is prescribed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for supporting licensing of nuclear power plants makes use of measurements of vertical temperature difference to determine atmospheric stability. Another method that is preferred by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) relies upon measurements of incoming solar radiation, vertical temperature gradient, and wind speed. Consequences are calculated and compared using the two sets of processed meteorological data from these two methods as input data into the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2 (MACCS2) code

Assessment of consequences from airborne releases of radioactive material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McGrath, P.E.; Blond, R.M.

1976-01-01

Over the past several years, the manner in which assessments have been made of the consequences of large airborne releases of radioactive material has not changed much conceptually. The models to describe the atmospheric dispersion of the radioactive material have generally been time-invariant, i.e., the meteorological conditions (thermal stability, wind speed, and precipitation) are invariant during release and the subsequent period of radiation exposure of the population to the airborne material. The frequency distribution of the meteorological conditions are determined by analyzing several years of weather data from the appropriate geographical location. In reality, weather is continuously changing over short time periods (hours) following the release. It is to be expected that the changing meteorological conditions would have important effects on the potential consequences of the release. A time-dependent atmospheric dispersion model was developed and implemented in the Reactor Safety Study. This paper provides a description of the model and the nature of the results generated. Emphasis is given to an explanation of how, and why, these results differ from those estimated with time-invariant models

Illustration of probabilistic approach in consequence assessment of accidental radioactive releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pecha, P.; Hofman, R.; Kuca, P.

2009-01-01

We are describing a certain application of uncertainty analysis of environmental model HARP applied on atmospheric and deposition sub-model. Simulation of uncertainties propagation through the model is basic inevitable task bringing data for advanced techniques of probabilistic consequence assessment and further improvement of reliability of model predictions based on statistical procedures of assimilation with measured data. The activities are investigated in the institute IITA AV CR within the grant project supported by GACR (2007-2009). The problem is solved in close cooperation with section of information systems in institute NRPI. The subject of investigation concerns evaluation of consequences of radioactivity propagation after an accidental radioactivity release from nuclear facility.Transport of activity is studied from initial atmospheric propagation, deposition of radionuclides on terrain and spreading through food chains towards human body .Subsequent deposition processes of admixtures and food chain activity transport are modeled. In the final step a hazard estimation based on doses on population is integrated into the software system HARP. Extension to probabilistic approach has increased the complexity substantially, but offers much more informative background for modem methods of estimation accounting for inherent stochastic nature of the problem. Example of probabilistic assessment illustrated here is based on uncertainty analysis of input parameters of SGPM model. Predicted background field of Cs-137 deposition are labelled with index p. as P X SGPM . Final goal is estimation of a certain unknown true background vector χ true , which accounts also for deficiencies of the SGPM formulation in itself insisting in insufficient description of reality. We must have on mind, that even if we know true values of all input parameters θ m true (m= 1 ,..., M) of SGPM model, the χ true still remain uncertain. One possibility how to approach reality insists

Illustration of probabilistic approach in consequence assessment of accidental radioactive releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pecha, P.; Hofman, R.; Kuca, P.

2008-01-01

We are describing a certain application of uncertainty analysis of environmental model HARP applied on atmospheric and deposition sub-model. Simulation of uncertainties propagation through the model is basic inevitable task bringing data for advanced techniques of probabilistic consequence assessment and further improvement of reliability of model predictions based on statistical procedures of assimilation with measured data. The activities are investigated in the institute IITA AV CR within the grant project supported by GACR (2007-2009). The problem is solved in close cooperation with section of information systems in institute NRPI. The subject of investigation concerns evaluation of consequences of radioactivity propagation after an accidental radioactivity release from nuclear facility.Transport of activity is studied from initial atmospheric propagation, deposition of radionuclides on terrain and spreading through food chains towards human body .Subsequent deposition processes of admixtures and food chain activity transport are modeled. In the final step a hazard estimation based on doses on population is integrated into the software system HARP. Extension to probabilistic approach has increased the complexity substantially, but offers much more informative background for modem methods of estimation accounting for inherent stochastic nature of the problem. Example of probabilistic assessment illustrated here is based on uncertainty analysis of input parameters of SGPM model. Predicted background field of Cs-137 deposition are labelled with index p. as P X SGPM . Final goal is estimation of a certain unknown true background vector χ true , which accounts also for deficiencies of the SGPM formulation in itself insisting in insufficient description of reality. We must have on mind, that even if we know true values of all input parameters θ m true (m= 1 ,..., M) of SGPM model, the χ true still remain uncertain. One possibility how to approach reality insists

Employment of kernel methods on wind turbine power performance assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skrimpas, Georgios Alexandros; Sweeney, Christian Walsted; Marhadi, Kun S.

2015-01-01

A power performance assessment technique is developed for the detection of power production discrepancies in wind turbines. The method employs a widely used nonparametric pattern recognition technique, the kernel methods. The evaluation is based on the trending of an extracted feature from...... the kernel matrix, called similarity index, which is introduced by the authors for the first time. The operation of the turbine and consequently the computation of the similarity indexes is classified into five power bins offering better resolution and thus more consistent root cause analysis. The accurate...

Diagnostic Invasiveness and Psychosocial Consequences of False-Positive Mammography

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heleno, Bruno M.; Siersma, Volkert Dirk; Brodersen, John

2015-01-01

PURPOSE: We undertook a study to assess whether women with false-positivemammography have worse psychosocial consequences if managed with aworkup that involves a biopsy (invasive group) than if managed with only additional imaging (noninvasive group). METHODS: We performed subgroup analysis...... of a cohort study of 454 womenwith abnormal screening mammography and 908 matched control women withnormal results. Using a condition-specific questionnaire (Consequences of Screening in Breast Cancer), we assessed 12 psychosocial consequences at 5 time points (0, 1, 6, 18, and 36 months after final diagnosis......) and compared the 2 groups of women with false-positives (invasive and noninvasive management groups). RESULTS: Among the 252 women with false-positive mammography eligible forthis study, psychosocial consequences were similar for those managed invasivelyand those managed noninvasively during the 36 months...

Possibilities and consequences of the Total Cumulative Exergy Loss method in improving the sustainability of power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stougie, Lydia; Kooi, Hedzer J. van der

2016-01-01

parts of the systems contribute most to their overall scores. It is concluded from the case studies that involving the TCExL method in choices between power generation systems with the same energy sources has no consequences, i.e. it does not result in a different ranking of the systems, but can lead to the choice of a system that has a lower economic sustainability if the assessed systems use different energy sources. However, it must be noted that the economic sustainability changes over time, while the results of the TCExL method do not.

A Cyber Security Self-Assessment Method for Nuclear Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glantz, Clifford S.; Coles, Garill A.; Bass, Robert B.

2004-11-01

A cyber security self-assessment method (the Method) has been developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The development of the Method was sponsored and directed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Members of the Nuclear Energy Institute Cyber Security Task Force also played a substantial role in developing the Method. The Method's structured approach guides nuclear power plants in scrutinizing their digital systems, assessing the potential consequences to the plant of a cyber exploitation, identifying vulnerabilities, estimating cyber security risks, and adopting cost-effective protective measures. The focus of the Method is on critical digital assets. A critical digital asset is a digital device or system that plays a role in the operation, maintenance, or proper functioning of a critical system (i.e., a plant system that can impact safety, security, or emergency preparedness). A critical digital asset may have a direct or indirect connection to a critical system. Direct connections include both wired and wireless communication pathways. Indirect connections include sneaker-net pathways by which software or data are manually transferred from one digital device to another. An indirect connection also may involve the use of instructions or data stored on a critical digital asset to make adjustments to a critical system. The cyber security self-assessment begins with the formation of an assessment team, and is followed by a six-stage process.

A Cyber Security Self-Assessment Method for Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glantz, Clifford S.; Coles, Garill A.; Bass, Robert B.

2004-01-01

A cyber security self-assessment method (the Method) has been developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The development of the Method was sponsored and directed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Members of the Nuclear Energy Institute Cyber Security Task Force also played a substantial role in developing the Method. The Method's structured approach guides nuclear power plants in scrutinizing their digital systems, assessing the potential consequences to the plant of a cyber exploitation, identifying vulnerabilities, estimating cyber security risks, and adopting cost-effective protective measures. The focus of the Method is on critical digital assets. A critical digital asset is a digital device or system that plays a role in the operation, maintenance, or proper functioning of a critical system (i.e., a plant system that can impact safety, security, or emergency preparedness). A critical digital asset may have a direct or indirect connection to a critical system. Direct connections include both wired and wireless communication pathways. Indirect connections include sneaker-net pathways by which software or data are manually transferred from one digital device to another. An indirect connection also may involve the use of instructions or data stored on a critical digital asset to make adjustments to a critical system. The cyber security self-assessment begins with the formation of an assessment team, and is followed by a six-stage process

Development of the assessment of nuclear accident consequences and decision support system in China: status, requirement and recommendations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi Zhongqi; Wang Xingyu

2003-01-01

This paper introduces the status of nuclear accident consequence assessment/development of decision-making support system in China. The basic functions and roles of the consequence assessment/decision-making support system for three levels of nuclear emergency response organization (i.e. national, local offsite and nuclear power plant operator) in China are presented in the paper

Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suski, N.; Wuest, C.

2011-01-01

Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre-Assessment

Cyclic features of the consequences from a postulated nuclear accident: a case study of the third level probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xinhe, LIU; Homma, Toshimitsu

2002-01-01

In the third level probabilistic safety assessment, one of the three popular meteorological sequence sampling methods is cyclic sampling. The rationale of cyclic sampling is obviously that cyclic variation is the significant characteristics of the meteorological sequences and the health consequences resulting from a postulated nuclear accident are also remarkably of cyclic features. In this work, a set of time series was established for different health consequences using S3 source term and a whole year meteorological data. OSCAAR software system was utilized in the calculation of the health consequences. It is shown by the analysis that diurnal variation is remarked for all the kinds of health consequences, implying that cyclic sampling would be more effective than random sampling. The results also showed that there are not any dominating frequencies in the spectra of the consequences so that cyclic sampling might be incompetent to reduce the third level PSA to a satisfied level. Therefore, new schemes of meteorological sampling should be developed in the light of consideration of complex coupling of meteorological condition and population distribution rather than the consideration of meteorological condition alone

The consequences of using advanced physical assessment skills in medical and surgical nursing: A hermeneutic pragmatic study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zambas, Shelaine I; Smythe, Elizabeth A; Koziol-Mclain, Jane

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the consequences of the nurse's use of advanced assessment skills on medical and surgical wards. Appropriate, accurate, and timely assessment by nurses is the cornerstone of maintaining patient safety in hospitals. The inclusion of "advanced" physical assessment skills such as auscultation, palpation, and percussion is thought to better prepare nurses for complex patient presentations within a wide range of clinical situations. This qualitative study used a hermeneutic pragmatic approach. Unstructured interviews were conducted with five experienced medical and surgical nurses to obtain 13 detailed narratives of assessment practice. Narratives were analyzed using Van Manen's six-step approach to identify the consequences of the nurse's use of advanced assessment skills. The consequences of using advanced assessment skills include looking for more, challenging interpretations, and perseverance. The use of advanced assessment skills directs what the nurse looks for, what she sees, interpretation of the findings, and her response. It is the interpretation of what is seen, heard, or felt within the full context of the patient situation, which is the advanced skill. Advanced assessment skill is the means to an accurate interpretation of the clinical situation and contributes to appropriate diagnosis and medical management in complex patient situations. The nurse's use of advanced assessment skills enables her to contribute to diagnostic reasoning within the acute medical and surgical setting.

Assessment of socioeconomic consequences of drug abuse in the Ural federal district

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inessa Aleksandrovna Gurban

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The paper considers issues of the assessment of the socioeconomic consequences of drug abuse in today’s conditions, which have the following features — the approaching of drug-dealers to legalize the drug market, develop the illegal drug market and their analogs and derivatives by the introduction of modern production technologies and distribution of psychoactive agents. Key tendencies observed in the contemporary world in the field of dynamics of the drug market development, which are reflected in the regions of Russia including the Ural Federal District are revealed. The procedure of assessment of socioeconomic expenses of drug abuse including assessment of drug consumers’ expenses and their surrounding people; and also; maintenance costs of the state bodies supervising drug trafficking; expenses for health care and other social expenses connected to drug use; damage to individuals of drug abuse distribution; expenses of private institutions and establishments; socioeconomic impact of drug abuse distribution. The technique uses a tool allowing to carry out a calculation (a heroin equivalent, i.e. the drugs withdrawn by law enforcement agencies and the subsequent calculation of the corresponding number of consumers of each type of drug. This method is aimed at increasing the accuracy of estimates received. On the basis of results calculated according to offered technique, the shares of socioeconomic expenses of drug abuse concerning the income of the cumulative consolidated budget and a gross regional product of the Ural Federal District are defined.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment. Volume 3, Appendices C, D, E, F, and G

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [and others

1995-01-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the third of a three-volume document describing the project and contains descriptions of the probability assessment principles; the expert identification and selection process; the weighting methods used; the inverse modeling methods; case structures; and summaries of the consequence codes.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment. Volume 3, Appendices C, D, E, F, and G

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.

1995-01-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the third of a three-volume document describing the project and contains descriptions of the probability assessment principles; the expert identification and selection process; the weighting methods used; the inverse modeling methods; case structures; and summaries of the consequence codes

Beyond Creativity Assessment: Comparing Methods and Identifying Consequences of Recognized Creativity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Valgeirsdóttir, Dagný; Onarheim, Balder

2015-01-01

Can people recognize and appreciate design creativity in products? It has previously been shown that creativity influences willingness to purchase products. Those results served as the inspiration for this study, however, it was of interest to investigate whether using adifferent research approach...... is outside the usual CAT frame. Despite the expansion of CAT a high interrater agreement existed for each attribute indicating that CAT was reliable. This study could, however, not reproduce the previous findings of a relationship between creativity and purchasability of design products. Aesthetic appeal...... would yield similar results. Thus the Consensual AssessmentTechnique (CAT) (Amabile, 1982) was adopted. Participants were asked to assess creativity level, technical advancement and aesthetic appeal, as required when applying CAT, adding purchasability to investigate appreciation of creativity, which...

Comparison of INTERA and WISAP consequence model application. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cole, C.R.; Bond, F.W.

1980-01-01

The Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP) is being conducted to develop, for the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI), the methodology necessary to perform long-term safety assessments of deep geologic repositories. The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) program is developing a nuclear waste storage facility and is performing assessments of that site. WISAP and WIPP have similar, though independent, methodologies for assessing the consequences of a repository breach subsequent to closure. Intera Environmental Consultants are under contract to Sandia Laboratories to conduct the hydrologic and transport modeling for the WIPP Site Release Consequence Analysis (WIPP EIS/ER 1978). To provide a mutual benchmark check of the radionuclide and ground-water transport models of these two programs, ONWI has requested WISAP to perform a release consequence analysis based on the WIPP site, utilizing the same data and conceptual model which the WIPP program used for its environmental assessments. Therefore, only a portion of the WISAP methodology was used; specifically, only WISAP geotransport models were exercised. The other important parts of WISAP assessment methodology were not used, so that WISAP did not develop the scenario nor did WISAP interpret the field data to develop the conceptual model of the geohydrology of the WIPP site. The results of the comparative assessment are presented. Although the different models required slightly different input parameters, the results of the hydrologic simulations show a very close correspondence between the WISAP and WIPP predictions. This was as expected, since the various hydrologic codes available essentially utilize and solve the same basic flow equations. In addition, this report presents the results of the WISAP radionuclide transport model simulations. These results will provide the basis for comparison with WIPP results when these become available

Can mixed assessment methods make biology classes more equitable?

Science.gov (United States)

Cotner, Sehoya; Ballen, Cissy J

2017-01-01

Many factors have been proposed to explain the attrition of women in science, technology, engineering and math fields, among them the lower performance of women in introductory courses resulting from deficits in incoming preparation. We focus on the impact of mixed methods of assessment, which minimizes the impact of high-stakes exams and rewards other methods of assessment such as group participation, low-stakes quizzes and assignments, and in-class activities. We hypothesized that these mixed methods would benefit individuals who otherwise underperform on high-stakes tests. Here, we analyze gender-based performance trends in nine large (N > 1000 students) introductory biology courses in fall 2016. Females underperformed on exams compared to their male counterparts, a difference that does not exist with other methods of assessment that compose course grade. Further, we analyzed three case studies of courses that transitioned their grading schemes to either de-emphasize or emphasize exams as a proportion of total course grade. We demonstrate that the shift away from an exam emphasis consequently benefits female students, thereby closing gaps in overall performance. Further, the exam performance gap itself is reduced when the exams contribute less to overall course grade. We discuss testable predictions that follow from our hypothesis, and advocate for the use of mixed methods of assessments (possibly as part of an overall shift to active learning techniques). We conclude by challenging the student deficit model, and suggest a course deficit model as explanatory of these performance gaps, whereby the microclimate of the classroom can either raise or lower barriers to success for underrepresented groups in STEM.

Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

1986-04-01

This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

1986-04-01

This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

Assessing the consequences of nonnative trout in headwater ecosystems in western North America

Science.gov (United States)

Jason B. Dunham; David S. Pilliod; Michael K. Young

2004-01-01

Intentional introductions of nonnative trout into headwater lakes and streams can have numerous effects on the receiving ecosystems, potentially threatening native species and disrupting key ecological processes. In this perspective, we focus on seven key issues for assessing the biological and economic consequences of nonnative trout in headwater ecosystems: (1)...

Risk management & organizational uncertainty implications for the assessment of high consequence organizations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bennett, C.T.

1995-02-23

Post hoc analyses have demonstrated clearly that macro-system, organizational processes have played important roles in such major catastrophes as Three Mile Island, Bhopal, Exxon Valdez, Chernobyl, and Piper Alpha. How can managers of such high-consequence organizations as nuclear power plants and nuclear explosives handling facilities be sure that similar macro-system processes are not operating in their plants? To date, macro-system effects have not been integrated into risk assessments. Part of the reason for not using macro-system analyses to assess risk may be the impression that standard organizational measurement tools do not provide hard data that can be managed effectively. In this paper, I argue that organizational dimensions, like those in ISO 9000, can be quantified and integrated into standard risk assessments.

Development of environmental risk assessment framework using index method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M.W.; Wu, Y.

2000-01-01

This paper presents a newly developed framework for assessing the risk from events which are considered to be major accidents to the environment according to the classifications by the United Kingdom Department of Environment (DoE). The application of an environmental risk assessment framework using the newly developed index method is demonstrated by means of a case study. The framework makes use of Environmental Hazard Index (EHI) method by the United Kingdom AEA Technology for releases to river, but improves it by taking account to toxic dose rather than concentration; taking account of long-term effects including persistence and bio accumulation, not just short term effects; extending the method to all aspects of environment, not just rivers; and allowing account to be taken of design changes to mitigate the risk. The development of the framework has also led to a revision of the tolerability criteria to be used with the framework proposed earlier by weakness and recommend further work to improve this newly proposed environmental risk assessment framework. From the study, it is recommended that the environmental risk assessment framework be applied to a wide range of other case studies in order to further improve it. The framework should be modified to maintain consistency when the DoE revises its definitions of major accidents to the environment. Ease-of-use of the framework (and any other environmental framework) would be aided by the compilation of databases for environmental toxicity, river data and available consequence models. Further work could also be done to suggest methods of mitigating the risk and including them as numerical factors within method. (author)

Can mixed assessment methods make biology classes more equitable?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sehoya Cotner

Full Text Available Many factors have been proposed to explain the attrition of women in science, technology, engineering and math fields, among them the lower performance of women in introductory courses resulting from deficits in incoming preparation. We focus on the impact of mixed methods of assessment, which minimizes the impact of high-stakes exams and rewards other methods of assessment such as group participation, low-stakes quizzes and assignments, and in-class activities. We hypothesized that these mixed methods would benefit individuals who otherwise underperform on high-stakes tests. Here, we analyze gender-based performance trends in nine large (N > 1000 students introductory biology courses in fall 2016. Females underperformed on exams compared to their male counterparts, a difference that does not exist with other methods of assessment that compose course grade. Further, we analyzed three case studies of courses that transitioned their grading schemes to either de-emphasize or emphasize exams as a proportion of total course grade. We demonstrate that the shift away from an exam emphasis consequently benefits female students, thereby closing gaps in overall performance. Further, the exam performance gap itself is reduced when the exams contribute less to overall course grade. We discuss testable predictions that follow from our hypothesis, and advocate for the use of mixed methods of assessments (possibly as part of an overall shift to active learning techniques. We conclude by challenging the student deficit model, and suggest a course deficit model as explanatory of these performance gaps, whereby the microclimate of the classroom can either raise or lower barriers to success for underrepresented groups in STEM.

Accident consequence assessments with different atmospheric dispersion models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panitz, H.J.

1989-11-01

An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straight-line Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different dispersion models on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been performed. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that they provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completely novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling in which two different distance ranges of validity are distinguished: the near range of some ten kilometres distance and the adjacent far range which are assigned to respective trajectory models. (orig.) [de

Assessment of network inference methods: how to cope with an underdetermined problem.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline Siegenthaler

Full Text Available The inference of biological networks is an active research area in the field of systems biology. The number of network inference algorithms has grown tremendously in the last decade, underlining the importance of a fair assessment and comparison among these methods. Current assessments of the performance of an inference method typically involve the application of the algorithm to benchmark datasets and the comparison of the network predictions against the gold standard or reference networks. While the network inference problem is often deemed underdetermined, implying that the inference problem does not have a (unique solution, the consequences of such an attribute have not been rigorously taken into consideration. Here, we propose a new procedure for assessing the performance of gene regulatory network (GRN inference methods. The procedure takes into account the underdetermined nature of the inference problem, in which gene regulatory interactions that are inferable or non-inferable are determined based on causal inference. The assessment relies on a new definition of the confusion matrix, which excludes errors associated with non-inferable gene regulations. For demonstration purposes, the proposed assessment procedure is applied to the DREAM 4 In Silico Network Challenge. The results show a marked change in the ranking of participating methods when taking network inferability into account.

SAVANNAH RIVER SITE CAPABILITIES FOR CONDUCTING INGESTION PATHWAY CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENTS FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunter, C

2007-12-11

Potential airborne releases of radioactivity from facilities operated for the U. S. Department of Energy at the Savannah River Site could pose significant consequences to the public through the ingestion pathway. The Savannah River National Laboratory has developed a suite of technologies needed to conduct assessments of ingestion dose during emergency response, enabling emergency manager at SRS to develop initial protective action recommendation for state agencies early in the response and to make informed decisions on activation of additional Federal assets that would be needed to support long-term monitoring and assessment activities.

The method of educational assessment affects children's neural processing and performance: behavioural and fMRI Evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Steven J.; Burianová, Hana; Calleia, Alysha; Fynes-Clinton, Samuel; Kervin, Lisa; Bokosmaty, Sahar

2017-08-01

Standardised educational assessments are now widespread, yet their development has given comparatively more consideration to what to assess than how to optimally assess students' competencies. Existing evidence from behavioural studies with children and neuroscience studies with adults suggest that the method of assessment may affect neural processing and performance, but current evidence remains limited. To investigate the impact of assessment methods on neural processing and performance in young children, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to identify and quantify the neural correlates during performance across a range of current approaches to standardised spelling assessment. Results indicated that children's test performance declined as the cognitive load of assessment method increased. Activation of neural nodes associated with working memory further suggests that this performance decline may be a consequence of a higher cognitive load, rather than the complexity of the content. These findings provide insights into principles of assessment (re)design, to ensure assessment results are an accurate reflection of students' true levels of competency.

The Nordic safety program on accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tveten, U.

1988-01-01

One important part of Nordic cooperation is partially funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, namely the work performed within the Nordic Safety Program (often referred to as the NKA projects). NKA is the Nordic abbreviation of the Nordic Liaison Committee on Atomic Energy. One program area in the present four-year period is concerned with problems related to reactor accident consequence assessment, and contains almost twenty projects covering a wide range of subjects. The author is program coordinator for this program area. The program will be completed in 1989. The program was strongly influenced by Chernobyl, and a number of new projects were included in the program in 1986. Involved in the program are these Nordic institutions: Riso National Laboratory (Denmark). Technical Research Centre of Finland. Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety. Finnish Meteorological Institute. Institute for Energy Technology (Norway). Agricultural University of Norway. Meteorological Institute of Norway. Studsvik Energiteknik AB (Sweden). National Defence Research Laboratory (Sweden)

Assessing exposure and health consequences of chemicals in drinking water: current state of knowledge and research needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Villanueva, Cristina M; Kogevinas, Manolis; Cordier, Sylvaine; Templeton, Michael R; Vermeulen, Roel; Nuckols, John R; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Levallois, Patrick

2014-03-01

Safe drinking water is essential for well-being. Although microbiological contamination remains the largest cause of water-related morbidity and mortality globally, chemicals in water supplies may also cause disease, and evidence of the human health consequences is limited or lacking for many of them. We aimed to summarize the state of knowledge, identify gaps in understanding, and provide recommendations for epidemiological research relating to chemicals occurring in drinking water. Assessing exposure and the health consequences of chemicals in drinking water is challenging. Exposures are typically at low concentrations, measurements in water are frequently insufficient, chemicals are present in mixtures, exposure periods are usually long, multiple exposure routes may be involved, and valid biomarkers reflecting the relevant exposure period are scarce. In addition, the magnitude of the relative risks tends to be small. Research should include well-designed epidemiological studies covering regions with contrasting contaminant levels and sufficient sample size; comprehensive evaluation of contaminant occurrence in combination with bioassays integrating the effect of complex mixtures; sufficient numbers of measurements in water to evaluate geographical and temporal variability; detailed information on personal habits resulting in exposure (e.g., ingestion, showering, swimming, diet); collection of biological samples to measure relevant biomarkers; and advanced statistical models to estimate exposure and relative risks, considering methods to address measurement error. Last, the incorporation of molecular markers of early biological effects and genetic susceptibility is essential to understand the mechanisms of action. There is a particular knowledge gap and need to evaluate human exposure and the risks of a wide range of emerging contaminants. Villanueva CM, Kogevinas M, Cordier S, Templeton MR, Vermeulen R, Nuckols JR, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Levallois P. 2014. Assessing

Consequence Assessment for Potential Scenarios of Radiological Terrorists Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Hyeongki; Kim, Juyoul

2007-01-01

Radiological dispersal device (RDD) means any method used to deliberately disperse radioactive material to create terror or harm. Dirty bomb is an example of RDD, which usually consists of radioactive material and unconventional explosive. Dirty bomb was a problem long before September 11, 2001. In 1987, the Iraqi government tested a one-ton radiological bomb. The Iraqi tests confirmed that a dirty bomb is not effective as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and that its main value is as a psychological weapon. In 1995, Chechen rebels buried a dirty bomb in a park in Moscow threatening to detonate one in the future if their demands were not met. Another good example of potential dirty bomb effects was an incident in Goiania, Brazil on September 18, 1987, where an orphaned medical source containing 1,375 Ci of Cs-137 resulted the death of four people and extensive environmental contamination. The purposes of radiological terrorists events are not to destroy or damage the target but to disperse radioactivity in the environment. They inflict panic on a public and economic damage by disruption of business. They also have influence on enormous clean-up costs by spreading radioactive contamination including secondary impacts on water supply reservoirs. Generally, two major long-term concerns following a RDD are human health and economic impacts. In this study, we developed potential scenarios of radiological terrorists events and performed their radiological consequence assessments in terms of total effective dose equivalent (TEDE), projected cumulative external and internal dose, and ground deposition of radioactivity

Consequence Assessment for Potential Scenarios of Radiological Terrorists Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, Hyeongki [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Juyoul [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2007-07-01

Radiological dispersal device (RDD) means any method used to deliberately disperse radioactive material to create terror or harm. Dirty bomb is an example of RDD, which usually consists of radioactive material and unconventional explosive. Dirty bomb was a problem long before September 11, 2001. In 1987, the Iraqi government tested a one-ton radiological bomb. The Iraqi tests confirmed that a dirty bomb is not effective as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and that its main value is as a psychological weapon. In 1995, Chechen rebels buried a dirty bomb in a park in Moscow threatening to detonate one in the future if their demands were not met. Another good example of potential dirty bomb effects was an incident in Goiania, Brazil on September 18, 1987, where an orphaned medical source containing 1,375 Ci of Cs-137 resulted the death of four people and extensive environmental contamination. The purposes of radiological terrorists events are not to destroy or damage the target but to disperse radioactivity in the environment. They inflict panic on a public and economic damage by disruption of business. They also have influence on enormous clean-up costs by spreading radioactive contamination including secondary impacts on water supply reservoirs. Generally, two major long-term concerns following a RDD are human health and economic impacts. In this study, we developed potential scenarios of radiological terrorists events and performed their radiological consequence assessments in terms of total effective dose equivalent (TEDE), projected cumulative external and internal dose, and ground deposition of radioactivity.

The negative consequences of other students' drinking: inventory development and assessment of differences by student characteristics and risk behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Rhodes, Scott D; McCoy, Thomas P; Omli, Morrow R; Cohen, Gail M; Wagoner, Kimberly G; Durant, Robert H; Vissman, Aaron T; Wolfson, Mark

2009-01-01

College students continue to report being disrupted by other students' alcohol use. This study was designed to develop measures to document the consequences resulting from other students' drinking and identify differences in experiencing these consequences by student characteristics and drinking behaviors. A stratified random sample of undergraduate students (N = 3,908) from ten universities in North Carolina, USA, completed a web-based assessment. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was performed on the random first split-half sample (n = 1,954) to identify factor structure. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was performed on the remaining half sample (n = 1,954) using structural equation modeling. EFA revealed two inventories: interpersonal and community consequences of others' drinking inventories. CFA on the second split-half sample identified model fits for the two factor structure suggested by EFA. Of 3,908 participants, 78% reported experiencing one or more consequences due to others' drinking during the past 30 days. Multivariable generalized linear mixed modeling further validated the inventories and resulted in several associations. Male students who reported getting drunk experienced significantly more interpersonal consequences from others' drinking (p students, students who lived on campus and students who reported getting drunk experienced significantly more community consequences from others' drinking (p college students experience consequences from others' drinking, and consequences vary for different subgroups of students. Although these inventories should be tested further, these findings propose standardized measures that may be useful to assess the consequences of others' drinking among college students.

Radiation safety assessment of cobalt 60 external beam radiotherapy using the risk-matrix method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumenigo, C; Vilaragut, J.J.; Ferro, R.; Guillen, A.; Ramirez, M.L.; Ortiz Lopez, P.; Rodriguez, M.; McDonnell, J.D.; Papadopulos, S.; Pereira, P.P.; Goncalvez, M.; Morales, J.; Larrinaga, E.; Lopez Morones, R.; Sanchez, R.; Delgado, J.M.; Sanchez, C.; Somoano, F.

2008-01-01

External beam radiotherapy is the only practice in which humans are placed directly in a radiation beam with the intention to deliver a very high dose. This is why safety in radiotherapy is very critical, and is a matter of interest to both radiotherapy departments and regulatory bodies. Accidental exposures have occurred throughout the world, thus showing the need for systematic safety assessments, capable to identify preventive measures and to minimize consequences of accidental exposure. Risk-matrix is a systematic approach which combines the relevant event features to assess the overall risk of each particular event. Once an event sequence is identified, questions such as how frequent the event, how severe the potential consequences and how reliable the existing safety measures are answered in a risk-matrix table. The ultimate goal is to achieve that the overall risk for events with severe consequences should always be low o very low. In the present study, the risk-matrix method has been applied to an hypothetical radiotherapy department, which could be equivalent to an upper level hospital of the Ibero American region, in terms of safety checks and preventive measures. The application of the method has identified 76 event sequences and revealed that the hypothetical radiotherapy department is sufficiently protected (low risk) against them, including 23 event sequences with severe consequences. The method has revealed that the risk of these sequences could grow to high level if certain specific preventive measures were degraded with time. This study has identified these preventive measures, thus facilitating a rational allocation of resources in regular controls to detect any loss of reliability. The method has proven to have an important practical value and is affordable at hospital level. The elaborated risk-matrix can be easily adapted to local circumstances, in terms of existing controls and safety measures. This approach can help hospitals to identify

Socioeconomic consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tawil, J.J.; Callaway, J.W.; Coles, B.L.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Imhoff, K.L.; Lewis, P.M.; Nesse, R.J.; Strenge, D.L.

1984-06-01

This report identifies and characterizes the off-site socioeconomic consequences that would likely result from a severe radiological accident at a nuclear power plant. The types of impacts that are addressed include economic impacts, health impacts, social/psychological impacts and institutional impacts. These impacts are identified for each of several phases of a reactor accident - from the warning phase through the post-resettlement phase. The relative importance of the impact during each accident phase and the degree to which the impact can be predicted are indicated. The report also examines the methods that are currently used for assessing nuclear reactor accidents, including development of accident scenarios and the estimating of socioeconomic accident consequences with various models. Finally, a critical evaluation is made regarding the use of impact analyses in estimating the contribution of socioeconomic consequences to nuclear accident reactor accident risk. 116 references, 7 figures, 15 tables

Survey of probabilistic methods in safety and risk assessment for nuclear power plant licensing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-04-01

After an overview about the goals and general methods of probabilistic approaches in nuclear safety the main features of probabilistic safety or risk assessment (PRA) methods are discussed. Mostly in practical applications not a full-fledged PRA is applied but rather various levels of analysis leading from unavailability assessment of systems over the more complex analysis of the probable core damage stages up to the assessment of the overall health effects on the total population from a certain practice. The various types of application are discussed in relation to their limitation and benefits for different stages of design or operation of nuclear power plants. This gives guidance for licensing staff to judge the usefulness of the various methods for their licensing decisions. Examples of the application of probabilistic methods in several countries are given. Two appendices on reliability analysis and on containment and consequence analysis provide some more details on these subjects. (author)

Alteration of streamflow magnitudes and potential ecological consequences: A multiregional assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.; Meador, Michael R.

2011-01-01

Human impacts on watershed hydrology are widespread in the US, but the prevalence and severity of stream-flow alteration and its potential ecological consequences have not been quantified on a national scale. We assessed streamflow alteration at 2888 streamflow monitoring sites throughout the conterminous US. The magnitudes of mean annual (1980–2007) minimum and maximum streamflows were found to have been altered in 86% of assessed streams. The occurrence, type, and severity of streamflow alteration differed markedly between arid and wet climates. Biological assessments conducted on a subset of these streams showed that, relative to eight chemical and physical covariates, diminished flow magnitudes were the primary predictors of biological integrity for fish and macroinvertebrate communities. In addition, the likelihood of biological impairment doubled with increasing severity of diminished streamflows. Among streams with diminished flow magnitudes, increasingly common fish and macroinvertebrate taxa possessed traits characteristic of lake or pond habitats, including a preference for fine-grained substrates and slow-moving currents, as well as the ability to temporarily leave the aquatic environment.

Study on the code system for the off-site consequences assessment of severe nuclear accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sora; Mn, Byung Il; Park, Ki Hyun; Yang, Byung Mo; Suh, Kyung Suk [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

The importance of severe nuclear accidents and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) were brought to international attention with the occurrence of severe nuclear accidents caused by the extreme natural disaster at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. In Korea, studies on level 3 PSA had made little progress until recently. The code systems of level 3 PSA, MACCS2 (MELCORE Accident Consequence Code System 2, US), COSYMA (COde SYstem from MAria, EU) and OSCAAR (Off-Site Consequence Analysis code for Atmospheric Releases in reactor accidents, JAPAN), were reviewed in this study, and the disadvantages and limitations of MACCS2 were also analyzed. Experts from Korea and abroad pointed out that the limitations of MACCS2 include the following: MACCS2 cannot simulate multi-unit accidents/release from spent fuel pools, and its atmospheric dispersion is based on a simple Gaussian plume model. Some of these limitations have been improved in the updated versions of MACCS2. The absence of a marine and aquatic dispersion model and the limited simulating range of food-chain and economic models are also important aspects that need to be improved. This paper is expected to be utilized as basic research material for developing a Korean code system for assessing off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents.

Study on the code system for the off-site consequences assessment of severe nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sora; Mn, Byung Il; Park, Ki Hyun; Yang, Byung Mo; Suh, Kyung Suk

2016-01-01

The importance of severe nuclear accidents and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) were brought to international attention with the occurrence of severe nuclear accidents caused by the extreme natural disaster at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. In Korea, studies on level 3 PSA had made little progress until recently. The code systems of level 3 PSA, MACCS2 (MELCORE Accident Consequence Code System 2, US), COSYMA (COde SYstem from MAria, EU) and OSCAAR (Off-Site Consequence Analysis code for Atmospheric Releases in reactor accidents, JAPAN), were reviewed in this study, and the disadvantages and limitations of MACCS2 were also analyzed. Experts from Korea and abroad pointed out that the limitations of MACCS2 include the following: MACCS2 cannot simulate multi-unit accidents/release from spent fuel pools, and its atmospheric dispersion is based on a simple Gaussian plume model. Some of these limitations have been improved in the updated versions of MACCS2. The absence of a marine and aquatic dispersion model and the limited simulating range of food-chain and economic models are also important aspects that need to be improved. This paper is expected to be utilized as basic research material for developing a Korean code system for assessing off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents

Consequence of potential accidents in heavy water plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croitoru, C.; Lazar, R.E.; Preda, I.A.; Dumitrescu, M.

1998-01-01

Heavy water plants realize the primary isotopic concentrations of water using H 2 O-H 2 S chemical exchange and they are chemical plants. As these plants are handling and spreading large quantities of hydrogen sulphide (high toxic, corrosive, flammable and explosive as) maintained in the process at relative high temperatures and pressures, it is required an assessing of risks associated with the potential accidents. The H 2 S released in atmosphere as a result of an accident will have negative consequences to property, population and environment. This paper presents a model of consequences quantitative assessment and its outcome for the most dangerous accident in heavy water plants. Several states of the art risk based methods were modified and linked together to form a proper model for this analyse. Five basic steps to identify the risks involved in operating the plants are followed: hazard identification, accident sequence development, H 2 S emissions calculus, dispersion analyses and consequences determination. A brief description of each step and some information of analysis results are provided. The accident proportions, the atmospheric conditions and the population density in the respective area were accounted for consequences calculus. The specific results of the consequences analysis allow to develop the plant's operating safety requirements so that the risk remain at an acceptable level. (authors)

Safety distance assessment of industrial toxic releases based on frequency and consequence: A case study in Shanghai, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Q.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, X.; Ma, W.C.; Chen, L.M.

2009-01-01

A case study on the safety distance assessment of a chemical industry park in Shanghai, China, is presented in this paper. Toxic releases were taken into consideration. A safety criterion based on frequency and consequence of major hazard accidents was set up for consequence analysis. The exposure limits for the accidents with the frequency of more than 10 -4 , 10 -5 -10 -4 and 10 -6 -10 -5 per year were mortalities of 1% (or SLOT), 50% (SLOD) and 75% (twice of SLOD) respectively. Accidents with the frequency of less than 10 -6 per year were considered incredible and ignored in the consequence analysis. Taking the safety distance of all the hazard installations in a chemical plant into consideration, the results based on the new criterion were almost smaller than those based on LC50 or SLOD. The combination of the consequence and risk based results indicated that the hazard installations in two of the chemical plants may be dangerous to the protection targets and measurements had to be taken to reduce the risk. The case study showed that taking account of the frequency of occurrence in the consequence analysis would give more feasible safety distances for major hazard accidents and the results were more comparable to those calculated by risk assessment.

Comparison of the MARC and CRAC2 programs for assessing the radiological consequences of accidental releases of radioactive material

CERN Document Server

Hemming, C R; Charles, D; Ostmeyer, R M

1983-01-01

This report describes a comparison of the MARC (Methodology for Assessing Radiological Consequences) and CRAC2 (Calculation of Reactor Accident Consequences, version 2) computer programs for assessing the radiological consequences of accidental releases of radioactive material. A qualitative comparison has been made of the features of the constituent sub-models of the two codes, and potentially the most important differences identified. The influence of these differences has been investigated quantitatively by comparison of the predictions of the two codes in a wide variety of circumstances. Both intermediate quantities and endpoints used as a measure of risk have been compared in order to separate the variables more clearly. The results indicate that, in general, the predictions of MARC and CRAC2 are in good agreement.

COCO-1: model for assessing the cost of offsite consequences of accidental releases of radioactivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haywood, S.M.; Robinson, C.A.; Heady, C.

1991-09-01

This report describes a new model, called COCO-1 (Cost Of Consequences Offsite), for assessing the offsite economic consequences of an accident involving the release of radioactive material. The costs calculated are a measure of the benefit foregone as a result of the accident, and in addition to tangible monetary costs the model attempts to include costs arising from the effect of the accident on individuals, for instance the disruption caused by the loss of homes. The approach has limitations, which are discussed, but offers a broadly applicable and robust technique for estimating the economic impact of most accidents. (author)

A watershed-based method for environmental vulnerability assessment with a case study of the Mid-Atlantic region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tran, Liem T., E-mail: ltran1@utk.edu [Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); O& #x27; Neill, Robert V. [OTIE and Associates, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Smith, Elizabeth R. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

2012-04-15

The paper presents a method for environmental vulnerability assessment with a case study of the Mid-Atlantic region. The method is based on the concept of 'self-/peer-appraisal' of a watershed in term of vulnerability. The self-/peer-appraisal process is facilitated by two separate linear optimization programs. The analysis provided insights on the environmental conditions, in general, and the relative vulnerability pattern, in particular, of the Mid-Atlantic region. The suggested method offers a simple but effective and objective way to perform a regional environmental vulnerability assessment. Consequently the method can be used in various steps in environmental assessment and planning. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a method for regional environmental vulnerability assessment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It is based on the self-/peer-appraisal concept in term of vulnerability. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The analysis is facilitated by two separate linear optimization programs. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method provides insights on the regional relative vulnerability pattern.

Problem based learning in Higher Education and new approaches to assessment as a consequence of new formal regulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Annie Aarup; Krogh, Lone

on the basis of the project report in order to ensure alignment between goals, learning activities and assessment form. However, in 2006 the government announced that group examinations would no longer be permitted. As a result students are now allowed to do study work and write reports in groups......, but they are to be examined and assessed individually, i.e. without the presence of other students from the group. In this paper, we will investigate some of the consequences of these new regulations for   assessment. The research questions will address the question of alignment between group study and individual examination...... of group exams. Based on selected theoretical approaches to teaching, learning and assessment we wish to discuss the result of our research, the consequences of the changes in assessment forms, as well as the measures taken at the university in order to obtain new valid assessment forms. Finally...

Admissible thermal loading in geological formations. Consequences on radioactive waste disposal methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

The study of the ''Admissible thermal loading in geological formations and its consequence on radioactive waste disposal methods'' comprises four volumes: Volume 1. ''Synthesis report'' (English/French text). Volume 2. Granite formations (French text). Volume 3. Salt formations (German text). Volume 4. Clay formations (French text). The present ''synthesis report'' brings together the formation produced by the three specific studies dealing with granite, salt and clay

ALARA ASSESSMENT OF SETTLER SLUDGE SAMPLING METHODS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelsen, L.A.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this assessment is to compare underwater and above water settler sludge sampling methods to determine if the added cost for underwater sampling for the sole purpose of worker dose reductions is justified. Initial planning for sludge sampling included container, settler and knock-out-pot (KOP) sampling. Due to the significantly higher dose consequence of KOP sludge, a decision was made to sample KOP underwater to achieve worker dose reductions. Additionally, initial plans were to utilize the underwater sampling apparatus for settler sludge. Since there are no longer plans to sample KOP sludge, the decision for underwater sampling for settler sludge needs to be revisited. The present sampling plan calls for spending an estimated $2,500,000 to design and construct a new underwater sampling system (per A21 C-PL-001 RevOE). This evaluation will compare and contrast the present method of above water sampling to the underwater method that is planned by the Sludge Treatment Project (STP) and determine if settler samples can be taken using the existing sampling cart (with potentially minor modifications) while maintaining doses to workers As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) and eliminate the need for costly redesigns, testing and personnel retraining

ALARA ASSESSMENT OF SETTLER SLUDGE SAMPLING METHODS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NELSEN LA

2009-01-30

The purpose of this assessment is to compare underwater and above water settler sludge sampling methods to determine if the added cost for underwater sampling for the sole purpose of worker dose reductions is justified. Initial planning for sludge sampling included container, settler and knock-out-pot (KOP) sampling. Due to the significantly higher dose consequence of KOP sludge, a decision was made to sample KOP underwater to achieve worker dose reductions. Additionally, initial plans were to utilize the underwater sampling apparatus for settler sludge. Since there are no longer plans to sample KOP sludge, the decision for underwater sampling for settler sludge needs to be revisited. The present sampling plan calls for spending an estimated $2,500,000 to design and construct a new underwater sampling system (per A21 C-PL-001 RevOE). This evaluation will compare and contrast the present method of above water sampling to the underwater method that is planned by the Sludge Treatment Project (STP) and determine if settler samples can be taken using the existing sampling cart (with potentially minor modifications) while maintaining doses to workers As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) and eliminate the need for costly redesigns, testing and personnel retraining.

RASCAL [Radiological Assessment System for Consequence AnaLysis]: A screening model for estimating doses from radiological accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoreen, A.L.; Athey, G.F.; Sakenas, C.A.; McKenna, T.J.

1988-01-01

The Radiological Assessment System for Consequence AnaLysis (RASCAL) is a new MS-DOS-based dose assessment model which has been written for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for use during response to radiological emergencies. RASCAL is designed to provide crude estimates of the effects of an accident while the accident is in progress and only limited information is available. It has been designed to be very simple to use and to run quickly. RASCAL is unique in that it estimates the source term based on fundamental plant conditions and does not rely solely on release rate estimation (e.g., Ci/sec of I-131). Therefore, it can estimate consequences of accidents involving unmonitored pathways or projected failures. RASCAL will replace the older model, IRDAM. 6 refs

UFOING: A program for assessing the off-site consequences from ingestion of accidentally released radionuclides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steinhauer, C.

1988-12-01

The program UFOING estimates foodchain-related consequences following accidental releases of radionuclides to the atmosphere. It was developed as a stand-alone supplement to the accident consequence assessment program system UFOMOD to allow faster and more detailed investigations of the consequences arising from the foodchain pathways than possible with the version of UFOING which is implemented in UFOMOD. For assumed releases at different times of the year, age dependent individual doses, collective doses, individual risks for fatal stochastic somatic health effects as a function of time, the total numbers of the effects, and the areas affected by foodbans together with the estimated duration of the bans are calculated. In addition, percentage contributions of radionuclides and foodstuffs to the doses and risks can be evaluated. In the first part of this report, an overview over the program is given. The other parts contain a user's guide, a program guide, and descriptions of the data employed and of the version of UFOING which is implemented in UFOMOD. (orig.) [de

The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faude, D.

1991-01-01

A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

Consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woodard, K.

1985-01-01

The objectives of this paper are to: Provide a realistic assessment of consequences; Account for plant and site-specific characteristics; Adjust accident release characteristics to account for results of plant-containment analysis; Produce conditional risk curves for each of five health effects; and Estimate uncertainties

An assessment of simplified methods to determine damage from ship-to-ship collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parks, M.B.; Ammerman, D.J.

1996-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is studying the safety of shipping, radioactive materials (RAM) by sea, the SeaRAM project (McConnell, et al. 1995), which is sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE). The project is concerned with the potential effects of ship collisions and fires on onboard RAM packages. Existing methodologies are being assessed to determine their adequacy to predict the effect of ship collisions and fires on RAM packages and to estimate whether or not a given accident might lead to a release of radioactivity. The eventual goal is to develop a set of validated methods, which have been checked by comparison with test data and/or detailed finite element analyses, for predicting the consequences of ship collisions and fires. These methods could then be used to provide input for overall risk assessments of RAM sea transport. The emphasis of this paper is on methods for predicting- effects of ship collisions

Environmental risk assessment of low density polyethylene unit using the method of failure mode and effect analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salati Parinaz

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The ninth olefin plan of Arya Sasol Petrochemical Company (A.S.P.C. is regarded the largest gas Olefin Unit located on Pars Special Economic Energy Zone (P.S.E.E.Z. Considering the importance of the petrochemical unit, its environmental assessment seems necessary to identify and reduce potential hazards. For this purpose, after determining the scope of the study area, identification and measurement of the environmental parameters, environmental risk assessment of the unit was carried out using Environment Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (EFMEA. Using the noted method, sources causing environmental risks were identified, rated and prioritized. Beside, the impacts of the environmental aspects derived from the unit activities as well as their consequences were also analyzed. Furthermore, the identified impacts were prioritized based on Risk Priority Number (RPN and severity level of the consequences imposed on the affected environment. After performing statistical calculations, it was found that the environmental aspects owing the risk priority number higher than 15 have a high level of risk. Results obtained from Low Density Polyethylene Unit revealed that the highest risk belongs to the emergency vent system with risk priority number equal to 48. It is occurred due to imperfect performance of the reactor safety system leading to the emissions of ethylene gas, particles, and radioactive steam as well as air and noise pollutions. Results derived from secondary assessment of the environmental aspects, through difference in calculated RPN and activities risk levels showed that employing modern methods and risk assessment are have remarkably reduced the severity of risk and consequently detracted the damages and losses incurred on the environment.

Consequences of neurologic lesions assessed by Barthel Index after Botox® injection may be underestimated

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dionyssiotis Y

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Y Dionyssiotis,1,2 D Kiourtidis,3 A Karvouni,3 A Kaliontzoglou,3 I Kliafas31Medical Department, Rehabilitation Center Amyntaio, General Hospital of Florina, Amyntaio, Florina, 2Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Department, Rhodes General Hospital, Rhodes, Dodecanese, 3Neurologic Department, Rhodes General Hospital, Rhodes, Dodecanese, GreecePurpose: The aim of this study was to investigate whether the consequences of neurologic lesions are underestimated when the Barthel Index (BI is used to assess the clinical outcome of botulinum toxin injection.Patients and methods: The records for all in- and outpatients with various neurologic lesions (stroke, multiple sclerosis, spinal cord injury, traumatic brain injury, and so forth who had been referred to the authors’ departments and who had received botulinum toxin type A (Botox® for spasticity within a 4-year period (2008–2011 were examined retrospectively. BI data were collected and analyzed.Results: The BI score was found to have increased in follow-up assessments (P = 0.048. No correlation was found between the degree of spasticity and the BI score.Conclusion: The specific injection of Botox in patients with neurologic lesions was not strongly correlated with a significant functional outcome according to the BI. The results of this study suggest that clinicians need to look at other measurement scales for the assessment of significant outcomes of Botox in the rehabilitation process after neurologic lesions.Keywords: botulinum toxin type A, spasticity, stroke, multiple sclerosis

Source term assessment, containment atmosphere control systems, and accident consequences. Report to CSNI by an OECD/NEA Group of experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-04-01

CSNI Report 135 summarizes the results of the work performed by CSNI's Principal Working Group No. 4 on the Source Term and Environmental Consequences (PWG4) during the period extending from 1983 to 1986. This document contains the latest information on some important topics relating to source terms, accident consequence assessment, and containment atmospheric control systems. It consists of five parts: (1) a Foreword and Executive Summary prepared by PWG4's Chairman; (2) a Report on the Technical Status of the Source Term; (3) a Report on the Technical Status of Filtration and Containment Atmosphere Control Systems for Nuclear Reactors in the Event of a Severe Accident; (4) a Report on the Technical Status of Reactor Accident Consequence Assessment; (5) a list of members of PWG4

Planning of elimination of emergency consequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Kovalenko

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Introduction. The volume of useful information in the planning of elimination of emergency consequences process is reasonable to assess with calculatory problems and mathematical models. Materials and methods. The expert survey method is used to calculate quantitative values of probability and to determine the optimal solution before the information in condition is received. Results. It is determined that the quality of the solution of elimination emergency consequences depends primarily on the number of factors that are taken into account in particular circumstances of the situation; on the level of information readiness of control bodies to take decision to eliminate emergency consequences as soon as possible and to consider several options for achieving reasonableness and concreteness of a particular decision. The ratio between volume of useful information collected and processed during operation planning which is required for identifying optimal solution is calculated. This ratio allows to construct a graph of probability of identifying a solution in existing environment and probability value of identifying optimal solution before information in P*condition is obtained. This graph also shows the ratio volume of useful information collected and processed during operation planning and necessary volume of information for identifying optimal solution. Conclusion. The results of this research can be used for improving control bodies decisions to ensure safe working conditions for employees of food industry.

Methods for assessing geodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Zwoliński, Zbigniew; Najwer, Alicja; Giardino, Marco

2017-04-01

The accepted systematics of geodiversity assessment methods will be presented in three categories: qualitative, quantitative and qualitative-quantitative. Qualitative methods are usually descriptive methods that are suited to nominal and ordinal data. Quantitative methods use a different set of parameters and indicators to determine the characteristics of geodiversity in the area being researched. Qualitative-quantitative methods are a good combination of the collection of quantitative data (i.e. digital) and cause-effect data (i.e. relational and explanatory). It seems that at the current stage of the development of geodiversity research methods, qualitative-quantitative methods are the most advanced and best assess the geodiversity of the study area. Their particular advantage is the integration of data from different sources and with different substantive content. Among the distinguishing features of the quantitative and qualitative-quantitative methods for assessing geodiversity are their wide use within geographic information systems, both at the stage of data collection and data integration, as well as numerical processing and their presentation. The unresolved problem for these methods, however, is the possibility of their validation. It seems that currently the best method of validation is direct filed confrontation. Looking to the next few years, the development of qualitative-quantitative methods connected with cognitive issues should be expected, oriented towards ontology and the Semantic Web.

Techniques and decision making in the assessment of off-site consequences of an accident in a nuclear facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-01-01

This Guide is intended to complement the IAEA's existing technical guidance on emergency planning and preparedness by providing information and practical guidance related to the assessment of off-site consequences of an accident in a nuclear or radioactive materials installation and to the decision making process in implementing protective measures. This Guide contains information on emergency response philosophy, fundamental factors affecting accident consequences, principles of accident assessment, data acquisition and handling, systems, techniques and decision making principles. Many of the accident assessment concepts presented are considerably more advanced than some of those that now pertain in most countries. They could, if properly interpreted, developed and applied, significantly improve emergency response in the early and intermediate phases of an accident. Furthermore, they are considered to be applicable to a broad range of serious nuclear accidents and radiological emergencies. The extent of their application is governed by both the scale of the accident and by the availability of preplanned resources for accident assessment and emergency response. 68 refs, 28 figs, 14 tabs

Structure shielding from cloud and fallout gamma ray sources for assessing the consequences of reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burson, Z.G.; Profio, A.E.

1975-12-01

Radiation shielding provided by transportation vehicles and structures typical of where people live and work were estimated for cloud and fallout gamma-ray sources resulting from a hypothetical reactor accident. Dose reduction factors are recommended for a variety of situations for realistically assessing the consequences of reactor accidents

Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.

1976-04-01

The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

Assessing Environmental Consequences of Ticcing in Youth with Chronic Tic Disorders: The Tic Accommodation and Reactions Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Capriotti, Matthew R.; Piacentini, John C.; Himle, Michael B.; Ricketts, Emily J.; Espil, Flint M.; Lee, Han Joo; Turkel, Jennifer E.; Woods, Douglas W.

2015-01-01

Tics associated with Tourette syndrome and other chronic tic disorders (CTDs) often draw social reactions and disrupt ongoing behavior. In some cases, such tic-related consequences may function to alter moment-to-moment and future tic severity. These observations have been incorporated into contemporary biopsychosocial models of CTD phenomenology, but systematic research detailing the nature of the relationship between environmental consequences and ticcing remains scarce. This study describes the development of the Tic Accommodation and Reactions Scale (TARS), a measure of the number and frequency of immediate consequences for ticcing experienced by youth with CTDs. Thirty eight youth with CTDs and their parents completed the TARS as part of a broader assessment of CTD symptoms and psychosocial functioning. The TARS demonstrated good psychometric properties (i.e., internal consistency, parent-child agreement, convergent validity, discriminant validity). Differences between parent-reported and child-reported data indicated that children may provide more valid reports of tic-contingent consequences than parents. Although preliminary, results of this study suggest that the TARS is a psychometrically sound measure of tic-related consequences suited for future research in youth with CTDs. PMID:27076696

Recent assessments of the environmental consequences of nuclear war

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turco, R.P.

1986-01-01

Since late 1984 a number of important scientific studies have considered the global-scale consequences of a major nuclear war. These studies look beyond the immediate and direct effects of nuclear explosions (blast, thermal radiation, and local radioactive fallout) to investigate the more widespread effects of dispersed radioactivity and severe climatic disturbances - the nuclear winter. Assessments of the relevant phenomena have been carried out by the U.S. National Research Council, the Royal Society of Canada, and the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment of the International Council of Scientific Unions. Numerous physicists, atmospheric scientists, biologists, and physicians from around the world have contributed to these projects. In each case the findings are similar. While cautioning that significant uncertainties remain to be resolved, each report concludes that a nuclear winter is a clear possibility following a nuclear exchange. The SCOPE report goes even further, describing the biological, ecological, and human implications of a nuclear war and its aftermath. This unique treatise is summarized in the paper by M. Harwell in this volume

Probabilistic Assessment of Severe Accident Consequence in West Bangka

Science.gov (United States)

Sunarko; Su'ud, Zaki

2017-07-01

Probabilistic dose assessment for severe accident condition is performed for West Bangka area. Source-term from WASH-1400 reactor analysis is used as a conservative release scenario for 1000 MWe PWR. Seven groups of isotopes are used in the simulation based on core inventory and release fraction. Population distribution for Muntok district and the area within a 100 km radius is obtained from 2014 data. Meteorological data is provided through cyclic sampling from a database containing two-year site-specific hourly records in 2014-2015 periods. PC-COSYMA segmented plume dispersion code is used to investigate the assumed the consequence of the accident scenario. The result indicates that early or deterministic effect is important for areas close the release point while long-term or stochastic effect is related to population distribution and covers area of up to 100 km from the release point. The mean annual expected values for early mortality and late mortality for the population within 100 km radius from Muntok site are 2.38×10-4 yr -1 and 1.33×10-3 yr -1 respectively.

Assessment methods for rehabilitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Biefang, S; Potthoff, P

1995-09-01

Diagnostics and evaluation in medical rehabilitation should be based on methods that are as objective as possible. In this context quantitative methods are an important precondition. We conducted for the German Pensions Insurance Institutions (which are in charge of the medical and vocational rehabilitation of workers and employees) a survey on assessment methods for rehabilitation which included an evaluation of American literature, with the aim to indicate procedures that can be considered for adaptation in Germany and to define further research requirements. The survey identified: (1) standardized procedures and instrumented tests for the assessment of musculoskeletal, cardiopulmonary and neurophysiological function; (2) personality, intelligence, achievement, neuropsychological and alcoholism screening tests for the assessment of mental or cognitive function; (3) rating scales and self-administered questionnaires for the assessment of Activities of Daily Living and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (ADL/IADL Scales); (4) generic profiles and indexes as well as disease-specific measures for the assessment of health-related quality of life and health status; and (5) rating scales for vocational assessment. German equivalents or German versions exist only for a part of the procedures identified. Translation and testing of Anglo-Saxon procedures should have priority over the development of new German methods. The following procedures will be taken into account: (a) instrumented tests for physical function, (b) IADL Scales, (c) generic indexes of health-related quality of life, (d) specific quality of life and health status measures for disorders of the circulatory system, metabolic system, digestive organs, respiratory tract and for cancer, and (e) vocational rating scales.

Information System Quality Assessment Methods

OpenAIRE

Korn, Alexandra

2014-01-01

This thesis explores challenging topic of information system quality assessment and mainly process assessment. In this work the term Information System Quality is defined as well as different approaches in a quality definition for different domains of information systems are outlined. Main methods of process assessment are overviewed and their relationships are described. Process assessment methods are divided into two categories: ISO standards and best practices. The main objective of this w...

Methods of geodiversity assessment and theirs application

Science.gov (United States)

Zwoliński, Zbigniew; Najwer, Alicja; Giardino, Marco

2016-04-01

environment is based on geodiversity indexes. Burnett et al. (1998) and Nichols et al. (1998) used Shanon-Weaver diversity index but without success. Most studies that use geodiversity indexes are based on a concept originally published by Serrano, Ruiz-Flaño (2007), later developed by others, e.g. Serrano et al. (2009), Hjort, Luoto (2010), Pellitero et al. (2010, 2014), Comanescu, Nedelea (2012), Kot (2012), Silva et al. (2013), Martinez-Grana et al. 2015). Geodiversity value can also be assessed using techniques of quantitative and qualitative point bonitation method and its modifications (Kot 2005 a, b, c, 2006 a, b, 2014, Jačková, Romportl 2008, Kot, Smidt 2010, Zwoliński, Stachowiak 2012, Pereira et al. 2013). Highly promising results of the geodiversity assessments may also provide statistical modeling, more precisely generalized additive models (GAM) (Hjort, Luoto 2012, Hjort et al. 2012). Methods of geodiversity assessment may be recognised as direct and indirect (Pellitero et al. 2014). Direct methods are used to geodiversity value computation of soils, rocks, types of landforms, etc. Their application allows to obtain more accurate results and the same calculation is much simpler, although their usage is much more labor intensive (Pellitero et al. 2014), and often considerably more expensive. The use of these indicators for the assessment of broad scale areas is quite breakneck and their universality due to the fact limited. Indirect methods are not identifying features internally different, but some favorable conditions for the occurrence and intensification of the processes that usually generate diversity of the abiotic components and consequently the landforms. The biggest advantage of using indirect methods is time and money saving, resulting from the reduction to the minimum of field work. Usually source data acquisition (satellite imagery, digital elevation models or point clouds) is as well much cheaper, but unfortunately their correct preprocessing and

Assessment of Radiological and Economic Consequences of a Hypothetical Accident for ETRR-2, Egypt Utilizing COSYMA Code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tawfik, F.S.; Abdel-Aal, M.M.

2008-01-01

A comprehensive probabilistic study of an accident consequence assessment (ACA) for loss of coolant accident (LOCA) has accomplished to the second research reactor ETRR-2, located at Inshas Nuclear Research Center, Cairo, Egypt. PC-COSYMA, developed with the support of European Commission, has adopted to assess the radiological and economic consequences of a proposed accident. The consequences of the accident evaluated in case of early and late effects. The effective doses and doses in different organs carried out with and without countermeasures. The force mentioned calculations were required the following studies: the core inventory due to the hypothetical accident, the physical parameters of the source term, the hourly basis meteorological parameters for one complete year, and the population distribution around the plant. The hourly stability conditions and height of atmospheric boundary layers (ABL) of the concerned site were calculated. The results showed that, the nuclides that have short half-lives (few days) give the highest air and ground concentrations after the accident than the others. The area around the reactor requires the early and late countermeasures action after the accident especially in the downwind sectors. Economically, the costs of emergency plan are effectively high in case of applying countermeasures but countermeasures reduce the risk effects

Adolescent brain cognitive development (ABCD study: Overview of substance use assessment methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krista M. Lisdahl

2018-08-01

Full Text Available One of the objectives of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD Study (https://abcdstudy.org/ is to establish a national longitudinal cohort of 9 and 10 year olds that will be followed for 10 years in order to prospectively study the risk and protective factors influencing substance use and its consequences, examine the impact of substance use on neurocognitive, health and psychosocial outcomes, and to understand the relationship between substance use and psychopathology. This article provides an overview of the ABCD Study Substance Use Workgroup, provides the goals for the workgroup, rationale for the substance use battery, and includes details on the substance use module methods and measurement tools used during baseline, 6-month and 1-year follow-up assessment time-points. Prospective, longitudinal assessment of these substance use domains over a period of ten years in a nationwide sample of youth presents an unprecedented opportunity to further understand the timing and interactive relationships between substance use and neurocognitive, health, and psychopathology outcomes in youth living in the United States. Keywords: Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study, Adolescent, Child, Substance use, Alcohol, Cannabis, Marijuana, Nicotine, Longitudinal, Methods, Assessment, Drug use, Prescription drug use, Inhalants

Development of risk assessment simulation tool for optimal control of a low probability-high consequence disaster

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yotsumoto, Hiroki; Yoshida, Kikuo; Genchi, Hiroshi

2011-01-01

In order to control low probability-high consequence disaster which causes huge social and economic damage, it is necessary to develop simultaneous risk assessment simulation tool based on the scheme of disaster risk including diverse effects of primary disaster and secondary damages. We propose the scheme of this risk simulation tool. (author)

The science of epidemiology and the methods needed for public health assessments: a review of epidemiology textbooks.

Science.gov (United States)

Gouda, Hebe N; Powles, John W

2014-02-10

Epidemiology is often described as 'the science of public health'. Here we aim to assess the extent that epidemiological methods, as covered in contemporary standard textbooks, provide tools that can assess the relative magnitude of public health problems and can be used to help rank and assess public health priorities. Narrative literature review. Thirty textbooks were grouped into three categories; pure, extended or applied epidemiology, were reviewed with attention to the ways the discipline is characterised and the nature of the analytical methods described. Pure texts tend to present a strict hierarchy of methods with those metrics deemed to best serve aetiological inquiry at the top. Extended and applied texts employ broader definitions of epidemiology but in most cases, the metrics described are also those used in aetiological inquiry and may not be optimal for capturing the consequences and social importance of injuries and disease onsets. The primary scientific purpose of epidemiology, even amongst 'applied' textbooks, is aetiological inquiry. Authors do not readily extend to methods suitable for assessing public health problems and priorities.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in nuclear accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karlberg, Olof.

1989-01-01

This report contains the results of a four year project in research contracts with the Nordic Cooperation in Nuclear Safety and the National Institute for Radiation Protection. An uncertainty/sensitivity analysis methodology consisting of Latin Hypercube sampling and regression analysis was applied to an accident consequence model. A number of input parameters were selected and the uncertainties related to these parameter were estimated within a Nordic group of experts. Individual doses, collective dose, health effects and their related uncertainties were then calculated for three release scenarios and for a representative sample of meteorological situations. From two of the scenarios the acute phase after an accident were simulated and from one the long time consequences. The most significant parameters were identified. The outer limits of the calculated uncertainty distributions are large and will grow to several order of magnitudes for the low probability consequences. The uncertainty in the expectation values are typical a factor 2-5 (1 Sigma). The variation in the model responses due to the variation of the weather parameters is fairly equal to the parameter uncertainty induced variation. The most important parameters showed out to be different for each pathway of exposure, which could be expected. However, the overall most important parameters are the wet deposition coefficient and the shielding factors. A general discussion of the usefulness of uncertainty analysis in consequence analysis is also given. (au)

Models and methods to evaluate consequences of the release of airborne radioactivity from NNPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anh, T.H.

1989-01-01

To examine the radioactive contamination and possible consequences of a nuclear power plant on living organisms during its operation periodes, the computer programmes were elaborated for assessing its fluences on the environment. The authors have resolved the following problems: i) Calculation of fission product inventories in the reactor core; ii) Calculation of the atmospheric dispersion of the released radionuclides under the meteorological conditions as well as the deposition of the radioactive substances on the soil; iii) Calculation of the irradiation doses

Assessing the state-level consequences of global warming: Socio-economic and energy demand impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rubin, B.M. Gailmard, S.; Marsh, D.; Septoff, A.

1996-01-01

The large body of research on climate change has begun to recognize a significant deficiency: the lack of analysis of the impact of climate change at a spatial level consistent with the anticipated occurrence of climate change. Climate change is likely to vary by region, while impact analysis has focused on much larger political units. Clearly, adaptation/mitigation strategies must be developed at a level consistent with political and policy-making processes. This paper specifically addresses this deficiency by identifying the potential socio-economic and energy demand consequences of climate change for subnational regions. This is accomplished via the development and application of a regional simultaneous equation, econometric simulation model that focuses on five states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin) in the Great Lakes region of the US. This paper presents a process for obtaining state-specific assessments of the consequences of climate change for the socio-economic system. As such, it provides an indication of which economic sectors are most sensitive to climate change for a specific state (Indiana), a set of initial mitigation/adaptation strategies for this state, and the results of testing these strategies in the policy analysis framework enabled by the model. In addition, the research demonstrates an effective methodology for assessing impacts and policy implications of climate change at a level consistent with policy making authority

Assessment of fatigue using the Identity- Consequence Fatigue Scale in patients with lung cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ingrid Correia Nogueira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the properties of the Identity-Consequence Fatigue Scale (ICFS in patients with lung cancer (LC, assessing the intensity of fatigue and associated factors. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study involving LC patients, treated at a teaching hospital in Brazil, who completed the ICFS. Patients with chronic heart disease (CHD and healthy controls, matched for age and gender, also completed the scale. Initially, a Brazilian Portuguese-language version of the ICFS was administered to 50 LC patients by two independent interviewers; to test for reproducibility, it was readministered to those same patients. At baseline, the LC patients were submitted to spirometry and the six-minute walk test, as well as completing the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS, Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36, and Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS. Inflammatory status was assessed by blood C-reactive protein (CRP levels. To validate the ICFS, we assessed the correlations of its scores with those variables. Results: The sample comprised 50 patients in each group (LC, CHD, and control. In the LC group, the intraclass correlation coefficients for intra-rater and inter-rater reliability regarding ICFS summary variables ranged from 0.94 to 0.76 and from 0.94 to 0.79, respectively. The ICFS presented excellent internal consistency, and Bland-Altman plots showed good test-retest reliability. The ICFS correlated significantly with FSS, HADS, and SF-36 scores, as well as with CRP levels. Mean ICFS scores in the LC group differed significantly from those in the CHD and control groups. Conclusions: The ICFS is a valid, reliable instrument for evaluating LC patients, in whom depression, quality of life, and CRP levels seem to be significantly associated with fatigue.

Ensemble atmospheric dispersion modeling for emergency response consequence assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Addis, R.P.; Buckley, R.L.

2003-01-01

Full text: Prognostic atmospheric dispersion models are used to generate consequence assessments, which assist decision-makers in the event of a release from a nuclear facility. Differences in the forecast wind fields generated by various meteorological agencies, differences in the transport and diffusion models themselves, as well as differences in the way these models treat the release source term, all may result in differences in the simulated plumes. This talk will address the U.S. participation in the European ENSEMBLE project, and present a perspective an how ensemble techniques may be used to enable atmospheric modelers to provide decision-makers with a more realistic understanding of how both the atmosphere and the models behave. Meteorological forecasts generated by numerical models from national and multinational meteorological agencies provide individual realizations of three-dimensional, time dependent atmospheric wind fields. These wind fields may be used to drive atmospheric dispersion (transport and diffusion) models, or they may be used to initiate other, finer resolution meteorological models, which in turn drive dispersion models. Many modeling agencies now utilize ensemble-modeling techniques to determine how sensitive the prognostic fields are to minor perturbations in the model parameters. However, the European Union programs RTMOD and ENSEMBLE are the first projects to utilize a WEB based ensemble approach to interpret the output from atmospheric dispersion models. The ensembles produced are different from those generated by meteorological forecasting centers in that they are ensembles of dispersion model outputs from many different atmospheric transport and diffusion models utilizing prognostic atmospheric fields from several different forecast centers. As such, they enable a decision-maker to consider the uncertainty in the plume transport and growth as a result of the differences in the forecast wind fields as well as the differences in the

A method to assess the population-level consequences of wind energy facilities on bird and bat species: Chapter

Science.gov (United States)

Diffendorfer, James E.; Beston, Julie A.; Merrill, Matthew; Stanton, Jessica C.; Corum, Margo D.; Loss, Scott R.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Erickson, Richard A.; Heist, Kevin W.

2016-01-01

For this study, a methodology was developed for assessing impacts of wind energy generation on populations of birds and bats at regional to national scales. The approach combines existing methods in applied ecology for prioritizing species in terms of their potential risk from wind energy facilities and estimating impacts of fatalities on population status and trend caused by collisions with wind energy infrastructure. Methods include a qualitative prioritization approach, demographic models, and potential biological removal. The approach can be used to prioritize species in need of more thorough study as well as to identify species with minimal risk. However, the components of this methodology require simplifying assumptions and the data required may be unavailable or of poor quality for some species. These issues should be carefully considered before using the methodology. The approach will increase in value as more data become available and will broaden the understanding of anthropogenic sources of mortality on bird and bat populations.

Assessing Intimate Partner Abuse: Associated Factors and Health Consequences among Jordanian Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Safadi, Reema R; Daibes, Mayada A; Haidar, Waheda H; Al-Nawafleh, Ahmad H; Constantino, Rose E

2018-04-01

In this cross-sectional study, we assessed levels and types of psychological and physical intimate partner abuse (IPA), and the association of IPA with socio-demographic factors and health consequences. The Abusive Behavior Inventory was completed by 471 Jordanian women. IPA was higher among older women who were: of older age, of younger age at marriage, married to unemployed spouses, living in urban residence, and of lower educational level. IPA was associated with most of the health problems except dental injuries and burns. We recommend educational programs that raise women's awareness to their rights to education, free choices in marital age, and policies that mitigate IPA in Jordan and similar patriarchal societies.

New mobile methods for dietary assessment: review of image-assisted and image-based dietary assessment methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Boushey, C J; Spoden, M; Zhu, F M; Delp, E J; Kerr, D A

2017-08-01

For nutrition practitioners and researchers, assessing dietary intake of children and adults with a high level of accuracy continues to be a challenge. Developments in mobile technologies have created a role for images in the assessment of dietary intake. The objective of this review was to examine peer-reviewed published papers covering development, evaluation and/or validation of image-assisted or image-based dietary assessment methods from December 2013 to January 2016. Images taken with handheld devices or wearable cameras have been used to assist traditional dietary assessment methods for portion size estimations made by dietitians (image-assisted methods). Image-assisted approaches can supplement either dietary records or 24-h dietary recalls. In recent years, image-based approaches integrating application technology for mobile devices have been developed (image-based methods). Image-based approaches aim at capturing all eating occasions by images as the primary record of dietary intake, and therefore follow the methodology of food records. The present paper reviews several image-assisted and image-based methods, their benefits and challenges; followed by details on an image-based mobile food record. Mobile technology offers a wide range of feasible options for dietary assessment, which are easier to incorporate into daily routines. The presented studies illustrate that image-assisted methods can improve the accuracy of conventional dietary assessment methods by adding eating occasion detail via pictures captured by an individual (dynamic images). All of the studies reduced underreporting with the help of images compared with results with traditional assessment methods. Studies with larger sample sizes are needed to better delineate attributes with regards to age of user, degree of error and cost.

Employment consequences of depressive symptoms and work demands individually and combined

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thielen, Karsten; Nygaard, Else; Andersen, Ingelise

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Denmark, like other Western countries, is recently burdened by increasingly high social spending on employment consequences caused by ill mental health. This might be the result of high work demands affecting persons with ill mental health. Therefore, this study assesses to what extent...... depressive symptoms and high work demands, individually and combined, have an effect on employment consequences. METHODS: We conducted a population-based 7-year longitudinal follow-up study with baseline information from the year 2000 on socio-demographics, lifestyle, depressive symptoms and work demands...... employment consequences irrespective of the kind and amount of work demands. This might be an effect on the level of work ability in general as well as partly the result of health selection and co-morbidity....

Assessment of the radiological consequences in case of an emergency on a nuclear installation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manesse, D.; Crabol, B.

1988-04-01

The French Institute for Health Physics and Nuclear Safety (IPSN) has, for emergency cases on nuclear installations, an Emergency Technical Centre (Centre Technique de Crise - CTC) to provide the public authorities with the technical analysis of the events and with information concerning possible developments in terms of potential releases and radiological consequences to the environment. The CTC is connected, by a special line, to the French Meteorological Office so as to have access to meteorological parameters and local forecasts on the nuclear site at all times. For atmospheric dispersion and radiological consequences, three methods have been developed: a set of operational graphs (for first aid), a gaussian plume model and a gaussian puff model (SIROCCO); the latter two models are implanted on a VAX 8530 computer (with graphical monitors) reserved for that purpose [fr

Informal caregivers and detection of delirium in postacute care: a correlational study of the confusion assessment method (CAM), confusion assessment method-family assessment method (CAM-FAM) and DSM-IV criteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Flanagan, Nina M; Spencer, Gale

2016-09-01

Delirium is a common, serious and potentially life-threatening syndrome affecting older adults. This syndrome continues to be under-recognised and under treated by healthcare professionals across all care settings. Older adults who develop delirium have poorer outcomes, higher mortality and higher care costs. The purposes of this study were to correlate the confusion assessment method-family assessment method and confusion assessment method in the detection of delirium in postacute care, to correlate the confusion assessment method-family assessment method and diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders text revision criteria in detection of delirium in postacute care, to determine the prevalence of delirium in postacute care elders and to describe the relationship of level of cognitive impairment and delirium in the postacute care setting. Implications for Practice Delirium is disturbing for patients and caregivers. Frequently . family members want to provide information about their loved one. The use of the CAM-FAM and CAM can give a more definitive determination of baseline status. Frequent observations using both instruments may lead to better recognition of delirium and implementation of interventions to prevent lasting sequelae. Descriptive studies determined the strengths of relationship between the confusion assessment method, confusion assessment method-family assessment method, Mini-Cog and diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders text revision criteria in detection of delirium in the postacute care setting. Prevalence of delirium in this study was 35%. The confusion assessment method-family assessment method highly correlates with the confusion assessment method and diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders text revision criteria for detecting delirium in older adults in the postacute care setting. Persons with cognitive impairment are more likely to develop delirium. Family members recognise symptoms of delirium when

40 CFR 68.22 - Offsite consequence analysis parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Hazard Assessment § 68.22 Offsite consequence analysis parameters. (a) Endpoints. For analyses of offsite consequences, the following endpoints shall be...

WATER CHEMISTRY ASSESSMENT METHODS

Science.gov (United States)

This section summarizes and evaluates the surfce water column chemistry assessment methods for USEPA/EMAP-SW, USGS-NAQA, USEPA-RBP, Oho EPA, and MDNR-MBSS. The basic objective of surface water column chemistry assessment is to characterize surface water quality by measuring a sui...

Severe Accident Progression and Consequence Assessment Methodology Upgrades in ISAAC for Wolsong CANDU6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Y.M.; Kim, D.H.; Nijhawan, Sunil

2015-01-01

Amongst the applications of integrated severe accident analysis codes like ISAAC, the principal are to a) help develop an understanding of the severe accident progression and its consequences; b) support the design of mitigation measures by providing for them the state of the reactor following an accident; and c) to provide a training platform for accident management actions. After Fukushima accident there is an increased awareness of the need to implement effective and appropriate mitigation measures and empower the operators with training and understanding about severe accident progression and control opportunities. An updated code with reduced uncertainties can better serve these needs of the utility making decisions about mitigation measures and corrective actions. Optimal deployment of systems such as PARS and filtered containment venting require information on reactor transients for a number of critical parameters. Thus there is a greater consensus now for a demonstrated ability to perform accident progression and consequence assessment analyses with reduced uncertainties. Analyses must now provide source term transients that represent the best in available understanding and so meaningfully support mitigation measures. This requires removal of known simplifications and inclusion of all quantifiable and risk significant phenomena. Advances in understanding of CANDU6 severe accident progression reflected in the severe accident integrated code ROSHNI are being incorporated into ISAAC using CANDU specific component and system models developed and verified for Wolsong CANDU 6 reactors. A significant and comprehensive upgrade of core behavior models is being implemented in ISAAC to properly reflect the large variability amongst fuel channels in feeder geometry, fuel thermal powers and burnup. The paper summarizes the models that have been added and provides some results to illustrate code capabilities. ISAAC is being updated to meet the current requirements and

Severe Accident Progression and Consequence Assessment Methodology Upgrades in ISAAC for Wolsong CANDU6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Y.M.; Kim, D.H. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Nijhawan, Sunil [Prolet Inc. 98 Burbank Drive, Toronto (Canada)

2015-05-15

Amongst the applications of integrated severe accident analysis codes like ISAAC, the principal are to a) help develop an understanding of the severe accident progression and its consequences; b) support the design of mitigation measures by providing for them the state of the reactor following an accident; and c) to provide a training platform for accident management actions. After Fukushima accident there is an increased awareness of the need to implement effective and appropriate mitigation measures and empower the operators with training and understanding about severe accident progression and control opportunities. An updated code with reduced uncertainties can better serve these needs of the utility making decisions about mitigation measures and corrective actions. Optimal deployment of systems such as PARS and filtered containment venting require information on reactor transients for a number of critical parameters. Thus there is a greater consensus now for a demonstrated ability to perform accident progression and consequence assessment analyses with reduced uncertainties. Analyses must now provide source term transients that represent the best in available understanding and so meaningfully support mitigation measures. This requires removal of known simplifications and inclusion of all quantifiable and risk significant phenomena. Advances in understanding of CANDU6 severe accident progression reflected in the severe accident integrated code ROSHNI are being incorporated into ISAAC using CANDU specific component and system models developed and verified for Wolsong CANDU 6 reactors. A significant and comprehensive upgrade of core behavior models is being implemented in ISAAC to properly reflect the large variability amongst fuel channels in feeder geometry, fuel thermal powers and burnup. The paper summarizes the models that have been added and provides some results to illustrate code capabilities. ISAAC is being updated to meet the current requirements and

A review of the uncertainties in the assessment of radiological consequences of spent nuclear fuel disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiborgh, M.; Elert, M.; Hoeglund, L.O.; Jones, C.; Grundfelt, B.; Skagius, K.; Bengtsson, A.

1992-06-01

Radioactive waste disposal systems for spent nuclear fuel are designed to isolate the radioactive waste from the human environment for long period of time. The isolation is provided by a combination of engineered and natural barriers. Safety assessments are performed to describe and quantify the performance of the individual barriers and the disposal system over long-term periods. These assessments will always be associated with uncertainties. Uncertainties can originate from the variability of natural systems and will also be introduced in the predictive modelling performed to quantitatively evaluate the behaviour of the disposal system as a consequence of the incomplete knowledge about the governing processes. Uncertainties in safety assessments can partly be reduced by additional measurements and research. The aim of this study has been to identify uncertainties in assessments of radiological consequences from the disposal of spent nuclear fuel based on the Swedish KBS-3 concept. The identified uncertainties have been classified with respect to their origin, i.e. in conceptual, modelling and data uncertainties. The possibilities to reduce the uncertainties are also commented upon. In assessments it is important to decrease uncertainties which are of major importance for the performance of the disposal system. These could to some extent be identified by uncertainty analysis. However, conceptual uncertainties and some type of model uncertainties are difficult to evaluate. To be able to decrease uncertainties in conceptual models, it is essential that the processes describing and influencing the radionuclide transport in the engineered and natural barriers are sufficiently understood. In this study a qualitative approach has been used. The importance of different barriers and processes are indicated by their influence on the release of some representative radionuclides. (122 refs.) (au)

State of the art for assessing the off-side economic consequences of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallego Diaz, E.

1996-01-01

The paper is intended to offer a wide perspective on th methodologies for assessing the off-side economic consequences of nuclear accidents. The element which can contribute to the cost are first reviewed, namely the application of countermeasures against radioactive contamination: population movements, decontamination, food bans; together with the resulting health effects if this is the case. The basic characteristics of the existing models and codes are also presented, including the most recent developments and intercomparisons of results. Some applications of this kind of studies in different fields are outlined. (Author) 17 refs

Analysis of uncertainties caused by the atmospheric dispersion model in accident consequence assessments with UFOMOD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, F.; Ehrhardt, J.

1988-06-01

Various techniques available for uncertainty analysis of large computer models are applied, described and selected as most appropriate for analyzing the uncertainty in the predictions of accident consequence assessments. The investigation refers to the atmospheric dispersion and deposition submodel (straight-line Gaussian plume model) of UFOMOD, whose most important input variables and parameters are linked with probability distributions derived from expert judgement. Uncertainty bands show how much variability exists, sensitivity measures determine what causes this variability in consequences. Results are presented as confidence bounds of complementary cumulative frequency distributions (CCFDs) of activity concentrations, organ doses and health effects, partially as a function of distance from the site. In addition the ranked influence of the uncertain parameters on the different consequence types is shown. For the estimation of confidence bounds it was sufficient to choose a model parameter sample size of n (n=59) equal to 1.5 times the number of uncertain model parameters. Different samples or an increase of sample size did not change the 5%-95% - confidence bands. To get statistically stable results of the sensitivity analysis, larger sample sizes are needed (n=100, 200). Random or Latin-hypercube sampling schemes as tools for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses led to comparable results. (orig.) [de

Participation in the international comparison of probabilistic consequence assessment codes organized by OECD/NEA and CEC. Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rossi, J.

1994-02-01

Probabilistic Consequence Assessment (PCA) methods are exploited not only in risk evaluation but also to study alternative design features, reactor siting recommendations and to obtain acceptable dose criteria by the radiation safety authorities. The models are programmed into computer codes for these kind of assessment. To investigate the quality and competence of different models, OECD/NEA and CEC organized the international code comparison exercise, which was participated by the organizations from 15 countries. There were seven codes participating in the exercise. The objectives of the code comparison exercise were to compare the results by the codes, to contribute to PCA code quality assurance, to harmonize the codes, to provide a forum for discussion on various approaches and to produce the report on the exercise. The project started in 1991 and the results of the calculations were completed in autumn 1992. The international report consists of two parts: the Overview Report for decision makers and the supporting detailed Technical Report. The results of the project are reviewed as an user of the ARANO-programme of VTT and trends of it's further development are indicated in this report. (orig.) (11 refs., 13 figs., 4 tabs.)

A systematic review of quality assessment methods for smartphone health apps.

Science.gov (United States)

BinDhim, Nasser F; Hawkey, Alexandra; Trevena, Lyndal

2015-02-01

There are large numbers of health-related applications (apps) available in various app stores for many smartphone devices. Consequently, increasing numbers of articles are attempting to evaluate the content and the quality of health-related smartphone apps for specific health conditions. The aim of this article is to describe and summarize the methodologies used to determine the quality of health-related apps targeting health consumers and to propose a set of criteria for evaluating the quality of smartphone health-related apps. In 2013, literature searches were performed using Medline and CINAHL, and we included all articles that had the aim of assessing the quality of health-related smartphone apps. The assessment method used in these studies was summarized and scored using a set of quality criteria developed for this study. From 606 articles generated by the search, only 10 met the inclusion criteria. Based on our quality criteria, the mean score was 5.05 out of 8 (range, 2-7). Eighty percent of the studies did not identify the app store country in which the apps were found. Forty percent of the studies did not clearly mention whether they only had assessed the app description or had downloaded the app content for evaluation. Sixty percent of the studies did not provide a list of the apps they had evaluated. Overall, we identified six evaluation methodologies used to assess the quality of health-related apps described in RESULTS. This article provides a summary of currently used methods for assessing the quality of smartphone health-related apps and proposes a set of criteria to enable future studies to consistently review health-related app quality in a standardized manner.

Optimum modellings of atmospheric diffusion of radioactive effluents and exposure doses in the accident consequence assessment (Level 3 PSA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Byung Woo; Lee, Young Bok; Han, Moon Hee; Kim, Eun Han; Suh, Kyung Suk; Hwang, Won Tae

1992-12-01

Atmospheric diffusion and exposure strongly dependent on the environment were firstly considered in the full spectrum of accident consequence assessment to establish based on Korean conditions. An optimum weather category based on Korean climate and site-specific meteorology of Kori region was established by statistical analysis of measured data for 10 years. And a trajectory model was selected as the optimal one in the ACA by reviewing several existing diffusion models. Following aspects were considered in this selection as availability of meteorological data, ability to treat the change to wind direction, easy applicability of the model, and restriction of CPU time and core memory in current computers. Numerical integration method of our own was selected as the optimal dose assessment tool of external exposure. Unit dose rate was firstly computed with this method as the function of energy level of radionuclide, size of lattice, and distance between source and receptor, and then the results were rearranged as the data library for the rapid access to the ACA run. Dynamic ecosystem modelling has been done in order to estimate the seasonal variation of radioactivity for the assessment of ingestion exposure, considering Korean ingestion behavior, agricultural practice and the transportation. There is a lot of uncertainty in a countermeasure model due to the assumed values of parameters such as fraction of population with different shielding factor and driving speed. A new countermeasure model was developed using the concept of fuzzy set theory, since it provided the mathematical tools which could characterize the uncertainty involved in countermeasure modelling. (Author)

Evolutionary impact assessment: accounting for evolutionary consequences of fishing in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management.

Science.gov (United States)

Laugen, Ane T; Engelhard, Georg H; Whitlock, Rebecca; Arlinghaus, Robert; Dankel, Dorothy J; Dunlop, Erin S; Eikeset, Anne M; Enberg, Katja; Jørgensen, Christian; Matsumura, Shuichi; Nusslé, Sébastien; Urbach, Davnah; Baulier, Loїc; Boukal, David S; Ernande, Bruno; Johnston, Fiona D; Mollet, Fabian; Pardoe, Heidi; Therkildsen, Nina O; Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Vainikka, Anssi; Heino, Mikko; Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D; Dieckmann, Ulf

2014-03-01

Managing fisheries resources to maintain healthy ecosystems is one of the main goals of the ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). While a number of international treaties call for the implementation of EAF, there are still gaps in the underlying methodology. One aspect that has received substantial scientific attention recently is fisheries-induced evolution (FIE). Increasing evidence indicates that intensive fishing has the potential to exert strong directional selection on life-history traits, behaviour, physiology, and morphology of exploited fish. Of particular concern is that reversing evolutionary responses to fishing can be much more difficult than reversing demographic or phenotypically plastic responses. Furthermore, like climate change, multiple agents cause FIE, with effects accumulating over time. Consequently, FIE may alter the utility derived from fish stocks, which in turn can modify the monetary value living aquatic resources provide to society. Quantifying and predicting the evolutionary effects of fishing is therefore important for both ecological and economic reasons. An important reason this is not happening is the lack of an appropriate assessment framework. We therefore describe the evolutionary impact assessment (EvoIA) as a structured approach for assessing the evolutionary consequences of fishing and evaluating the predicted evolutionary outcomes of alternative management options. EvoIA can contribute to EAF by clarifying how evolution may alter stock properties and ecological relations, support the precautionary approach to fisheries management by addressing a previously overlooked source of uncertainty and risk, and thus contribute to sustainable fisheries.

Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perkins, W.C.

1984-01-01

The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

Assessment methods for the evaluation of vitiligo.

Science.gov (United States)

Alghamdi, K M; Kumar, A; Taïeb, A; Ezzedine, K

2012-12-01

There is no standardized method for assessing vitiligo. In this article, we review the literature from 1981 to 2011 on different vitiligo assessment methods. We aim to classify the techniques available for vitiligo assessment as subjective, semi-objective or objective; microscopic or macroscopic; and as based on morphometry or colorimetry. Macroscopic morphological measurements include visual assessment, photography in natural or ultraviolet light, photography with computerized image analysis and tristimulus colorimetry or spectrophotometry. Non-invasive micromorphological methods include confocal laser microscopy (CLM). Subjective methods include clinical evaluation by a dermatologist and a vitiligo disease activity score. Semi-objective methods include the Vitiligo Area Scoring Index (VASI) and point-counting methods. Objective methods include software-based image analysis, tristimulus colorimetry, spectrophotometry and CLM. Morphometry is the measurement of the vitiliginous surface area, whereas colorimetry quantitatively analyses skin colour changes caused by erythema or pigment. Most methods involve morphometry, except for the chromameter method, which assesses colorimetry. Some image analysis software programs can assess both morphometry and colorimetry. The details of these programs (Corel Draw, Image Pro Plus, AutoCad and Photoshop) are discussed in the review. Reflectance confocal microscopy provides real-time images and has great potential for the non-invasive assessment of pigmentary lesions. In conclusion, there is no single best method for assessing vitiligo. This review revealed that VASI, the rule of nine and Wood's lamp are likely to be the best techniques available for assessing the degree of pigmentary lesions and measuring the extent and progression of vitiligo in the clinic and in clinical trials. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology © 2012 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

Consequence assessment for Airborne Releases of SO2 from the Y-12 Pilot Dechlorination Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pendergrass, W.R.

1992-06-01

The Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division was requested by the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Operations Office to conduct a consequence assessment for potential atmospheric releases of SO 2 from the Y-12 Pilot Dechlorination Facility. The focus of the assessment was to identify ''worst'' case meteorology which posed the highest concentration exposure potential for both on-site as well as off-site populations. A series of plausible SO 2 release scenarios were provided by Y-12 for the consequence assessment. Each scenario was evaluated for predictions of downwind concentration, estimates of a five-minute time weighted average, and estimate of the dimension of the puff. The highest hazard potential was associated with Scenario 1, in which a total of eight SO 2 cylinders are released internally to the Pilot Facility and exhausted through the emergency venting system. A companion effort was also conducted to evaluate the potential for impact of releases of SO 2 from the Pilot Facility on the population of Oak Ridge. While specific transport trajectory data is not available for the Pilot Facility, extrapolations based on the Oak Ridge Site Survey and climatological records from the Y-12 meteorological program does not indicate the potential for impact on the city of Oak Ridge. Steering by the local topographical features severely limits the potential impact ares. Due to the lack of specific observational data, both tracer and meteorological, only inferences can be made concerning impact zones. It is recommended tat the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations examine the potential for off-site impact and develop the background data to prepare impact zones for releases of hazardous materials from the Y-12 facility

Restoration of ankle joint, quality of life dynamics and assessment of achilles tendon rupture consequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.V. Vitomskyi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Aim: to investigate the dynamics of restoration of the amplitude of motion in the ankle joint, the quality of life and to assess the effects of the breakdown of the Achilles tendon. Material: patients (n=59, of which n=30 – the main group and n=29 – the control group were examined at 4, 8 and 16 weeks after surgery. Indicators registered with the help of: goniometry; the Achilles tendon Total Rupture Score; the scale of an assessment of consequences and results of Leppilahti implications. Results: the decrease of the total amplitude of the motion in the ankle joint takes place due to the deficiency of the amplitude of the dorsal flexion. At the end of the study the dorsal flexion rates were significantly better among the patients of main group. In particular, its deficit was 3.2 ± 1.85° in the main group and 6.8 ± 2.06° in the control group. The final total score Me (25; 75 was also better according to the questionnaire of the Achilles tendon Total Rupture Score: 82 (78; 84 points against 74 (72; 77 points (p <0.01. An assessment of consequences according to the Leppilahti score was 83.8 ± 8.58 points in the main group and 70.7 ± 10.58 points in the control group (p <0.01. Conclusions: means of physical rehabilitation help recover the amplitude of movement in the ankle joint, improve the quality of life and the effects after the rupture of the Achilles tendon. The correct methodological approach and combination of tools further improves the results.

Thevenin Equivalent Method for Dynamic Contingency Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jakob Glarbo; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Østergaard, Jacob

2015-01-01

A method that exploits Thevenin equivalent representation for obtaining post-contingency steady-state nodal voltages is integrated with a method of detecting post-contingency aperiodic small-signal instability. The task of integrating stability assessment with contingency assessment is challenged...... by the cases of unstable post-contingency conditions. For unstable postcontingency conditions there exists no credible steady-state which can be used for basis of a stability assessment. This paper demonstrates how Thevenin Equivalent methods can be applied in algebraic representation of such bifurcation...... points which may be used in assessment of post-contingency aperiodic small-signal stability. The assessment method is introduced with a numeric example....

Geomorphometry-based method of landform assessment for geodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Najwer, Alicja; Zwoliński, Zbigniew

2015-04-01

Climate variability primarily induces the variations in the intensity and frequency of surface processes and consequently, principal changes in the landscape. As a result, abiotic heterogeneity may be threatened and the key elements of the natural diversity even decay. The concept of geodiversity was created recently and has rapidly gained the approval of scientists around the world. However, the problem recognition is still at an early stage. Moreover, little progress has been made concerning its assessment and geovisualisation. Geographical Information System (GIS) tools currently provide wide possibilities for the Earth's surface studies. Very often, the main limitation in that analysis is acquisition of geodata in appropriate resolution. The main objective of this study was to develop a proceeding algorithm for the landform geodiversity assessment using geomorphometric parameters. Furthermore, final maps were compared to those resulting from thematic layers method. The study area consists of two peculiar valleys, characterized by diverse landscape units and complex geological setting: Sucha Woda in Polish part of Tatra Mts. and Wrzosowka in Sudetes Mts. Both valleys are located in the National Park areas. The basis for the assessment is a proper selection of geomorphometric parameters with reference to the definition of geodiversity. Seven factor maps were prepared for each valley: General Curvature, Topographic Openness, Potential Incoming Solar Radiation, Topographic Position Index, Topographic Wetness Index, Convergence Index and Relative Heights. After the data integration and performing the necessary geoinformation analysis, the next step with a certain degree of subjectivity is score classification of the input maps using an expert system and geostatistical analysis. The crucial point to generate the final maps of geodiversity by multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) with GIS-based Weighted Sum technique is to assign appropriate weights for each factor map by

Have the consequences of reactor accidents for the population been well assessed? Six questions to the experts in the field

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pohl, Peter

2016-07-15

Six questions to the experts in the field are posed: (1) Why is the assessment of accident consequences not separated in long-term and peak exposure? (2) Why is the exposure due to I-131 seen critical mainly in regard to the thyroid? (3) Do you have any reliable relations of health risk versus peak exposure? (4) Why do you not abolish the LNT assumption and replace it with a threshold model? (5) Why do you include indirect, psycho-somatic effects in assessing the consequences of reactor accidents when this is not customary with accidents with often more casualties? (6) How can the number of Chernobyl-assigned thyroid cancers have risen from some 600 about to some 4,000 today, when the latency period is in the range of 4 to 5 years?.

Consequences of potential accidents in heavy water plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croitoru, C.; Lazar, R.E.; Preda, I.A.; Dumitrescu, M.

2002-01-01

Heavy water plants achieve the primary isotopic concentration by H 2 O-H 2 S chemical exchange. In these plants are stored large quantities of hydrogen sulphide (high toxic, corrosive, flammable and explosive) maintained in process at relative high temperatures and pressures. It is required an assessment of risks associated with the potential accidents. The paper presents adopted model for quantitative consequences assessment in heavy water plants. Following five basic steps are used to identify the risks involved in plants operation: hazard identification, accident sequences development, H 2 S emissions calculus, dispersion analyses and consequences determination. A brief description of each step and some information from risk assessment for our heavy water pilot plant are provided. Accident magnitude, atmospheric conditions and population density in studied area were accounted for consequences calculus. (author)

Probabilistic Criticality Consequence Evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

P. Gottlieb; J.W. Davis; J.R. Massari

1996-01-01

This analysis is prepared by the Mined Geologic Disposal System (MGDS) Waste Package Development (WPD) department with the objective of providing a comprehensive, conservative estimate of the consequences of the criticality which could possibly occur as the result of commercial spent nuclear fuel emplaced in the underground repository at Yucca Mountain. The consequences of criticality are measured principally in terms of the resulting changes in radionuclide inventory as a function of the power level and duration of the criticality. The purpose of this analysis is to extend the prior estimates of increased radionuclide inventory (Refs. 5.52 and 5.54), for both internal and external criticality. This analysis, and similar estimates and refinements to be completed before the end of fiscal year 1997, will be provided as input to Total System Performance Assessment-Viability Assessment (TSPA-VA) to demonstrate compliance with the repository performance objectives

[Methods of pushing at vaginal delivery and pelvi-perineal consequences. Review].

Science.gov (United States)

Ratier, N; Balenbois, E; Letouzey, V; Marès, P; de Tayrac, R

2015-03-01

The main objective of that review was to evaluate the pelvi-perineal consequences of the different methods of pushing at vaginal delivery. A review on PubMed, the Cochrane Library and EM-Premium was performed from 1984 to 2014. Among 29 manuscripts analysed, only nine randomised controlled trials (including one meta-analysis of three trials) comparing Valsalva and spontaneous pushing were selected. A 10 th study, secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial comparing different methods of perineal protection (warm compresses, massage and manual protection), was also selected. Two trials have shown that spontaneous pushing reduces the risk of perineal tears, but studies were heterogeneous and discordant results do not allowed definitive conclusions. Results on the duration of the second stage of labour are conflicting. The method of pushing does not seem to affect the rate of episiotomy, instrumental delivery and cesarean section. Maternal satisfaction seems to be better after spontaneous pushing. It seems that there is no negative effect of spontaneous pushing on neonate well-being, and one study has shown a significant improvement of prenatal fetal parameters during the expulsive phase. According to current knowledge, both techniques of pushing during the expulsive phase at delivery seem comparable in terms of duration, risk of perineal tears and neonatal outcome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Revisiting Individual Creativity Assessment: Triangulation in Subjective and Objective Assessment Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Namgyoo K.; Chun, Monica Youngshin; Lee, Jinju

2016-01-01

Compared to the significant development of creativity studies, individual creativity research has not reached a meaningful consensus regarding the most valid and reliable method for assessing individual creativity. This study revisited 2 of the most popular methods for assessing individual creativity: subjective and objective methods. This study…

Radiological consequence analysis of a repository for radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fitzpatrick, J.; Buchheim, B.; Hoop, F.J.

1982-01-01

One of the methods under consideration for the disposal of radioactive wastes is emplacement in a repository within deep, continental formations. This paper presents the experience gained in developing a methodology to make an assessment of the radiological consequences both for normal operation and for possible accident situations for a specific repository design in a salt dome at Gorleben in Germany , designed to accommodate all categories of radioactive waste. Radionuclide release scenarios were derived from a systematic analysis of the facility design and proposed operational procedure. Where necessary simple numerical models for such topics as direct radiation exposure from waste containers, release and transport of radionuclides, radiolysis, heat transfer, creep and impact were developed to give a first estimate of the radiological consequences due to radionuclide releases. (author)

The biological consequences of climate changes: An ecological and economic assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batie, S.S.; Shugart, H.H.

1991-01-01

The following subject areas are covered: (1) the level of climate change; (2) impacts of climate change on ecological systems (short-term (decadal), medium term (centenary), and long-term (millennial) effects); and (3) ecological consequences of climate change - evaluating the social costs (the problem of valuing consequences, intergenerational problem, and safe minimum standard strategies and policies)

Why so many "rigorous" evaluations fail to identify unintended consequences of development programs: How mixed methods can contribute.

Science.gov (United States)

Bamberger, Michael; Tarsilla, Michele; Hesse-Biber, Sharlene

2016-04-01

Many widely-used impact evaluation designs, including randomized control trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental designs (QEDs), frequently fail to detect what are often quite serious unintended consequences of development programs. This seems surprising as experienced planners and evaluators are well aware that unintended consequences frequently occur. Most evaluation designs are intended to determine whether there is credible evidence (statistical, theory-based or narrative) that programs have achieved their intended objectives and the logic of many evaluation designs, even those that are considered the most "rigorous," does not permit the identification of outcomes that were not specified in the program design. We take the example of RCTs as they are considered by many to be the most rigorous evaluation designs. We present a numbers of cases to illustrate how infusing RCTs with a mixed-methods approach (sometimes called an "RCT+" design) can strengthen the credibility of these designs and can also capture important unintended consequences. We provide a Mixed Methods Evaluation Framework that identifies 9 ways in which UCs can occur, and we apply this framework to two of the case studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

Gender matters: the relationship between social anxiety and alcohol-related consequences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amie R Schry

Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Identification of risk factors for alcohol-related consequences is an important public health concern. Both gender and social anxiety have been associated with alcohol-related consequences broadly, but it is unknown whether these variables are differentially related to specific types of alcohol-related consequences for American college students. METHODS: In the present study, 573 undergraduate students (M(age = 19.86 years, SD = 1.40; range 18 to 25; 68.9% female completed an on-line assessment of social anxiety, alcohol use, and four types of alcohol-related consequences (personal, social, physical, and role. Poisson regressions were run to examine social anxiety, gender, and the interaction between social anxiety and gender as predictors of each type of alcohol-related consequences. RESULTS: After controlling for alcohol use, social anxiety was positively associated with all four types of consequences, and females endorsed higher rates of physical, personal, and role consequences. The interaction between social anxiety and gender was statistically significant only for physical consequences, with social anxiety having a stronger effect for males. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: These findings, which diverge somewhat from those of a prior study with Australian college students, are discussed in the context of a biopsychosocial model of social anxiety and substance use problems. SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE: This study highlights the importance of further investigating cultural differences in the relationships among social anxiety, gender, and alcohol-related consequences.

Gender Matters: The Relationship between Social Anxiety and Alcohol-Related Consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Schry, Amie R.; Norberg, Melissa M.; Maddox, Brenna B.; White, Susan W.

2014-01-01

Background and Objectives Identification of risk factors for alcohol-related consequences is an important public health concern. Both gender and social anxiety have been associated with alcohol-related consequences broadly, but it is unknown whether these variables are differentially related to specific types of alcohol-related consequences for American college students. Methods In the present study, 573 undergraduate students (M age = 19.86 years, SD = 1.40; range 18 to 25; 68.9% female) completed an on-line assessment of social anxiety, alcohol use, and four types of alcohol-related consequences (personal, social, physical, and role). Poisson regressions were run to examine social anxiety, gender, and the interaction between social anxiety and gender as predictors of each type of alcohol-related consequences. Results After controlling for alcohol use, social anxiety was positively associated with all four types of consequences, and females endorsed higher rates of physical, personal, and role consequences. The interaction between social anxiety and gender was statistically significant only for physical consequences, with social anxiety having a stronger effect for males. Discussion and Conclusions These findings, which diverge somewhat from those of a prior study with Australian college students, are discussed in the context of a biopsychosocial model of social anxiety and substance use problems. Scientific Significance This study highlights the importance of further investigating cultural differences in the relationships among social anxiety, gender, and alcohol-related consequences. PMID:25541722

Applicability of simplified methods to evaluate consequences of criticality accident using past accident data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakajima, Ken

2003-01-01

Applicability of four simplified methods to evaluate the consequences of criticality accident was investigated. Fissions in the initial burst and total fissions were evaluated using the simplified methods and those results were compared with the past accident data. The simplified methods give the number of fissions in the initial burst as a function of solution volume; however the accident data did not show such tendency. This would be caused by the lack of accident data for the initial burst with high accuracy. For total fissions, simplified almost reproduced the upper envelope of the accidents. However several accidents, which were beyond the applicable conditions, resulted in the larger total fissions than the evaluations. In particular, the Tokai-mura accident in 1999 gave in the largest total specific fissions, because the activation of cooling system brought the relatively high power for a long time. (author)

A method to assess maritime resilience

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rypkema, J.A.; Beek, F.A. van der; Schraagen, J.M.C.; Winkelman, J.W.; Wijngaarden, M. van

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to develop a multi-level resilience analysis method (RAM) to assess risk and performance variability in current maritime socio-technical systems (STSs). The method integrates Hollnagel’s four resilience abilities to assess a system’s ability to effectively cope with

Methods for land use impact assessment: A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perminova, Tataina; Sirina, Natalia; Laratte, Bertrand; Baranovskaya, Natalia; Rikhvanov, Leonid

2016-01-01

Many types of methods to assess land use impact have been developed. Nevertheless a systematic synthesis of all these approaches is necessary to highlight the most commonly used and most effective methods. Given the growing interest in this area of research, a review of the different methods of assessing land use impact (LUI) was performed using bibliometric analysis. One hundred eighty seven articles of agricultural and biological science, and environmental sciences were examined. According to our results, the most frequently used land use assessment methods are Life-Cycle Assessment, Material Flow Analysis/Input–Output Analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment and Ecological Footprint. Comparison of the methods allowed their specific features to be identified and to arrive at the conclusion that a combination of several methods is the best basis for a comprehensive analysis of land use impact assessment. - Highlights: • We identified the most frequently used methods in land use impact assessment. • A comparison of the methods based on several criteria was carried out. • Agricultural land use is by far the most common area of study within the methods. • Incentive driven methods, like LCA, arouse the most interest in this field.

Methods for land use impact assessment: A review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perminova, Tataina, E-mail: tatiana.perminova@utt.fr [Research Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, CNRS UMR 6281, 12 Rue Marie Curie CS 42060, F-10004 Troyes Cedex (France); Department of Geoecology and Geochemistry, Institute of Natural Resources, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30 Lenin Avenue, 634050 Tomsk (Russian Federation); Sirina, Natalia, E-mail: natalia.sirina@utt.fr [Research Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, CNRS UMR 6281, 12 Rue Marie Curie CS 42060, F-10004 Troyes Cedex (France); Laratte, Bertrand, E-mail: bertrand.laratte@utt.fr [Research Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, CNRS UMR 6281, 12 Rue Marie Curie CS 42060, F-10004 Troyes Cedex (France); Baranovskaya, Natalia, E-mail: natalya.baranovs@mail.ru [Department of Geoecology and Geochemistry, Institute of Natural Resources, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30 Lenin Avenue, 634050 Tomsk (Russian Federation); Rikhvanov, Leonid, E-mail: rikhvanov@tpu.ru [Department of Geoecology and Geochemistry, Institute of Natural Resources, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30 Lenin Avenue, 634050 Tomsk (Russian Federation)

2016-09-15

Many types of methods to assess land use impact have been developed. Nevertheless a systematic synthesis of all these approaches is necessary to highlight the most commonly used and most effective methods. Given the growing interest in this area of research, a review of the different methods of assessing land use impact (LUI) was performed using bibliometric analysis. One hundred eighty seven articles of agricultural and biological science, and environmental sciences were examined. According to our results, the most frequently used land use assessment methods are Life-Cycle Assessment, Material Flow Analysis/Input–Output Analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment and Ecological Footprint. Comparison of the methods allowed their specific features to be identified and to arrive at the conclusion that a combination of several methods is the best basis for a comprehensive analysis of land use impact assessment. - Highlights: • We identified the most frequently used methods in land use impact assessment. • A comparison of the methods based on several criteria was carried out. • Agricultural land use is by far the most common area of study within the methods. • Incentive driven methods, like LCA, arouse the most interest in this field.

Comparison of methods used for assessing the viability and vitality of yeast cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwolek-Mirek, Magdalena; Zadrag-Tecza, Renata

2014-11-01

Determination of cell viability is the most commonly used method for assessing the impact of various types of stressors in toxicity research and in industrial microbiology studies. Viability is defined as a percentage of live cells in a whole population. Although cell death is one of the consequences of toxicity, chemical or physical factors may exert their toxic effects through a number of cellular alterations that may compromise cell ability to divide without necessarily leading to cell death. This aspect represents the term 'cell vitality' defined as physiological capabilities of cells. It is important to note that cell viability and cell vitality represent two different aspects of cell functions, and both are required for the estimation of the physiological state of a cell after exposure to various types of stressors and chemical or physical factors. In this paper, we introduced a classification of available methods for estimating both viability and vitality in Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast cells (wild-type and Δsod1 mutant) in which the effects of selected oxidants causing oxidative stress is evaluated. We present the advantages as well as disadvantages of the selected methods and assess their usefulness in different types of research. © 2014 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

Research on probabilistic assessment method based on the corroded pipeline assessment criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Guangli; Luo, Jinheng; Zhao Xinwei; Zhang Hua; Zhang Liang; Zhang Yi

2012-01-01

Pipeline integrity assessments are performed using conventional deterministic approaches, even though there are many uncertainties about the parameters in the pipeline integrity assessment. In this paper, a probabilistic assessment method is provided for the gas pipeline with corrosion defects based on the current corroded pipe evaluation criteria, and the failure probability of corroded pipelines due to the uncertainties of loadings, material property and measurement accuracy is estimated using Monte-Carlo technique. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis approach is introduced to rank the influence of various random variables to the safety of pipeline. And the method to determine the critical defect size based on acceptable failure probability is proposed. Highlights: ► The folias factor in pipeline corrosion assessment methods was analyzed. ► The probabilistic method was applied in corrosion assessment methods. ► The influence of assessment variables to the reliability of pipeline was ranked. ► The acceptable failure probability was used to determine the critical defect size.

Discussion of sabotage vulnerabilities: consequences of airborne releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, M.S.; Epel, L.G.

1985-01-01

A simplified mathematical model has been developed to provide conservative estimates of radioactive and/or chemical dispersal consequences. The model is useful in assessing physical security protection needs and determining classification levels for information on DOE facilities. Sabotage scenarios for dispersals were developed based on public information, such as safety analysis reports and environmental impact statements for facilities of interest. The dispersal mechanisms considered included criticality incidents, explosive methods, pyrotechnics, lofting, etc. The technical knowledge required by a malevolent group intent upon causing dispersal includes the attack objective information, (target, source-consequences correlation and propagation characteristics) as well attack capability information (physical security, disperal know-how and engineered safety and protection features). Physical protection measures, which could protect materials via deterrence, detection, delay and apprehension, were suggested, along with classification techniques which could protect against dispersal by denying access to information critical to the success of sabotage. 9 refs., 6 figs

A Review on Methods for Assessing Risk Factors of the Upper Limb Disorders among Cashiers in Grocery Retail Industries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Zuhaidi Muhammad Fareez

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of the various methods that have been developed for the assessment of risk factors for upper limb disorders among cashiers in grocery retail industries. This paper is essential as upper limb disorders have been known as one of the prime cause of work-related disability in various countries. The methods used for the assessment were the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH questionnaire, the Assessment of Repetitive Tasks (ART, the Job Strain Index (JSI and the Occupational Repetitive Actions (OCRA Checklist. DASH questionnaire is a structured interview in determining the prevalence of the upper limb disorders, while ART, the JSI and OCRA Checklist act as a direct observation in examining the involvement of risk factors. Basically, these tools dealt with the measurements of symptoms, posture observation, and workplace risk assessment, as they are the most relevant tools for assessing the risk factors faced by the workers in grocery industries. The use of these tools assessed the risk factors and consequently reduces the risk of injuries among the workers.

Realistic methods for calculating the releases and consequences of a large LOCA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephenson, W.; Dutton, L.M.C.; Handy, B.J.; Smedley, C.

1992-01-01

This report describes a calculational route to predict realistic radiological consequences for a successfully terminated large-loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) at a pressurized-water reactor (PWR). All steps in the calculational route are considered. For each one, a brief comment is made on the significant differences between the methods of calculation that were identified in the benchmark studies and recommendations are made for the methods and data for carrying out realistic calculations. These are based on the best supportable methods and data and the technical basis for each recommendation is given. Where the lack of well-validated methods or data means that the most realistic method that can be justified is considered to be very conservative, the need for further research is identified. The behaviour of inorganic iodine and the removal of aerosols from the atmosphere of the reactor building are identified as areas of particular importance. Where the retention of radioactivity is sensitive to design features, these are identified and, for the most importance features, the impact of different designs on the release of activity is indicated. The predictions of the proposed model are calculated for each stage and compared with the releases of activity predicted by the licensing methods that were used in the earlier benchmark studies. The conservative nature of the latter is confirmed. Methods and data are also presented for calculating the resulting doses to members of the public of the National Radiological Protection Boards as a result of work carried out by several national bodies in the UK. Other, equally acceptable, models are used in other countries of the Community and some examples are given

Use of risk assessment methods for security design and analysis of nuclear and radioactive facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Andrade, Marcos C.; Jordao, Elizabete

2011-01-01

The objective of this work is to evaluate the applicability of risk assessment methods for analyzing the physical protection of nuclear and radioactive facilities. One of the important processes for physical protection in nuclear and radioactive facilities is the identifying of areas containing nuclear materials, structures, systems or components to be protected from sabotage, which could directly or indirectly lead to unacceptable radiological consequences. A survey of the international guidelines and recommendations about vital area identification, design basis threat (DBT), and the security of nuclear and radioactive facilities was carried out. The traditional methods used for quantitative risk assessment, like FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), Event and Decision Trees, Fault and Success Trees, Vulnerability Assessment, Monte Carlo Simulation, Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Scenario Analysis, and Game Theory, among others, are highlighted. The applicability of such techniques to security issues, their pros and cons, the general resources needed to implement them, as data or support software, are analyzed. Finally, an approach to security design and analysis, beginning with a qualitative and preliminary examination to determine the range of possible scenarios, outcomes, and the systems to be included in the analyses, and proceeding to a progressively use of more quantitative techniques is presented. (author)

An assessment of the radiological consequences of disposal of high-level waste in coastal geologic formations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, M.D.; Lawson, G.

1980-11-01

This study was carried out with the objectives of assessing the potential radiological consequences of entry of circulating ground-water into a high-level waste repository sited on the coast; and comparing the results with those of previous assessments for a repository sited inland. Mathematical models are used to calculate the rate of release of radioactivity into ground-water by leaching, the rates of migration of radionuclides with ground-water from the repository to the sea and the concentrations of radionuclides in sea-water and sea-food as a function of time. Estimates are made of the peak annual collective doses and collective dose commitments which could be received as a result of sea-food consumption. Since there are considerable uncertainties associated with the values of many of the parameters used in the calculations the broad features of the results are more significant than the numerical values of predicted annual doses and collective dose commitments. The results of the assessment show that the rates of migration of radionuclides with ground-water are of primary importance in determining the radiological impact of ground-water ingress. The implications of this result for selection of coastal sites and allocation of research effort are discussed. The comparison of coastal and inland sites suggest that coastal siting may have substantial advantages in terms of the radiological consequences to the public after disposal and that a significant fraction of available research effort should therefore be directed towards investigation of coastal sites. This study has been carried out under contract to the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, Harwell, on behalf of the Commission of the European Communities. (author)

Cutaneous radiation syndrome: applicability of comet assay for early assessment of irradiation consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Giorgio, Marina; Taja, Maria R.; Bolgiani, A.; Bustos, N.; Cavalieri, H.

2002-01-01

Many accidental overexposures to ionizing radiation lead to an inhomogeneous irradiation of the body. Skin and mucous membranes resulted exposed to very high local radiation doses, which may be survivable because bone marrow is less severely exposed. Under these circumstances, the skin becomes an important organ in determining clinical prognosis, being dosimetric assessment a necessary requirement. There is increasing interest in the assessment of biological markers that permit the detection of radiation induced damage in the localized irradiations. The 'Comet Assay' (single cell gel electrophoresis) is a sensitive, rapid and relatively inexpensive method for measuring DNA damage in individual cells. Single cells are embedded in agarose on microscope slides, lysed to remove the majority of the proteins, electrophoreses, then stained with ethidium bromide in order to visualize the DNA. Following radiation damage, the smaller the fragment size and the grater the number of fragments of DNA, the grater the percentage of DNA that it is able to migrate in an electric field, forming a comet image. The assay can be performed under alkaline conditions to examine DNA single strand breaks (SSBs), or in non denaturing (neutral) conditions to measure double strand breaks (DSBs) in individual cells. In order to get information to be applied on the evaluation of skin biopsies without culture for an early assessment of irradiation consequences in locally irradiated individuals, we have evaluated the alkaline comet assay (for doses 5 Gy), neutral comet assay has been applied to keratinocytes from primary and secondary cultures and to a suspension of epidermal cells obtained from biopsies irradiated in vitro and afterwards processed to obtain the mentioned cellular suspension, in order to reproduce the closest condition to in vivo overexposure. Our results suggest that comet assay can be applied for the early assessment of gamma radiation induced damage in skin biopsies without

Energy consumption assessment methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sutherland, K S

1975-01-01

The why, what, and how-to aspects of energy audits for industrial plants, and the application of energy accounting methods to a chemical plant in order to assess energy conservation possibilities are discussed. (LCL)

Some advanced parametric methods for assessing waveform distortion in a smart grid with renewable generation

Science.gov (United States)

Alfieri, Luisa

2015-12-01

Power quality (PQ) disturbances are becoming an important issue in smart grids (SGs) due to the significant economic consequences that they can generate on sensible loads. However, SGs include several distributed energy resources (DERs) that can be interconnected to the grid with static converters, which lead to a reduction of the PQ levels. Among DERs, wind turbines and photovoltaic systems are expected to be used extensively due to the forecasted reduction in investment costs and other economic incentives. These systems can introduce significant time-varying voltage and current waveform distortions that require advanced spectral analysis methods to be used. This paper provides an application of advanced parametric methods for assessing waveform distortions in SGs with dispersed generation. In particular, the Standard International Electrotechnical Committee (IEC) method, some parametric methods (such as Prony and Estimation of Signal Parameters by Rotational Invariance Technique (ESPRIT)), and some hybrid methods are critically compared on the basis of their accuracy and the computational effort required.

Proceeding of the workshop on the results of the cooperative research between JAERI and CHESCIR concerning the study on assessment and analysis of environmental radiological consequences and verification of an assessment system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amano, Hikaru; Saito, Kimiaki (eds.) [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

2001-03-01

This workshop was organized and sponsored by the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) and Chernobyl Science and Technology Center for International Research (CHESCIR). JAERI and CHESCIR have conducted 8 years research cooperation from 1992 to 1999 concerning the study on assessment and analysis of environmental radiological consequences and verification of an assessment system, focusing on the Chernobyl contaminated area. It contained 3 research subjects. Subject-1 initiated at 1992 and focused the study on measurements and evaluation of environmental external exposure after nuclear accident. Subject-2 initiated at 1992 and focused the study on the validation of assessment models in an environmental consequence assessment methodology for nuclear accidents. Subject-3 initiated at 1995 and focused on the study on migration of radionuclides released into terrestrial and aquatic environment after nuclear accidents. This workshop was held to summarize the research cooperation between JAERI and CHESCIR, and to discuss future research needs in this field. (author)

Research Note: The consequences of different methods for handling missing network data in Stochastic Actor Based Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Hipp, John R; Wang, Cheng; Butts, Carter T; Jose, Rupa; Lakon, Cynthia M

2015-05-01

Although stochastic actor based models (e.g., as implemented in the SIENA software program) are growing in popularity as a technique for estimating longitudinal network data, a relatively understudied issue is the consequence of missing network data for longitudinal analysis. We explore this issue in our research note by utilizing data from four schools in an existing dataset (the AddHealth dataset) over three time points, assessing the substantive consequences of using four different strategies for addressing missing network data. The results indicate that whereas some measures in such models are estimated relatively robustly regardless of the strategy chosen for addressing missing network data, some of the substantive conclusions will differ based on the missing data strategy chosen. These results have important implications for this burgeoning applied research area, implying that researchers should more carefully consider how they address missing data when estimating such models.

Methodology for assessing the financial potential of the state in overcoming the consequences of military conflicts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.Yu. Polchanov

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of the methodological foundations for measuring the state financial potential in overcoming the consequences of military conflicts. The critical analysis of papers on this subject makes it possible to define 10 quantitative indicators to assess the formation, distribution and use of financial resources to ensure post-conflict recovery. Separately, the author had proposed an indicator of regional concentration of sources of financial resources, which allows assessing the level of financial imbalances at the regional level. Based on data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine and the World Bank Group, the proposed indicators have been calculated and compared with their recommended values in 2014–2016. The assessment of financial potential of the state through its international credit rating (for example, Fitch Ratings, positions in ratings Doing Business, Global Competitiveness Index, Index of Economic Freedom and Corruption Perceptions Index 2010–2016 has not been left without attention.

SOFTWARE QUALITY ASSURANCE FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT MODELS AT DOE'S SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, C

2007-01-01

The Savannah River National Laboratory's (SRNL) Atmospheric Technologies Group develops, maintains, and operates computer-based software applications for use in emergency response consequence assessment at DOE's Savannah River Site. These applications range from straightforward, stand-alone Gaussian dispersion models run with simple meteorological input to complex computational software systems with supporting scripts that simulate highly dynamic atmospheric processes. A software quality assurance program has been developed to ensure appropriate lifecycle management of these software applications. This program was designed to meet fully the overall structure and intent of SRNL's institutional software QA programs, yet remain sufficiently practical to achieve the necessary level of control in a cost-effective manner. A general overview of this program is described

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01

This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

1997-06-01

This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G

Consequences of major nuclear accidents on wild fauna and flora: dosimetric assessments remain a weakness to establish robust conclusions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

As about hundred of studies have been undertaken after the major nuclear accidents (Chernobyl and Fukushima) to study the consequences of these accidents on wild flora and fauna, notably on the effects of low doses of ionizing radiations, it appears that some of them reported noticeable effects due to extremely low doses. Such findings put knowledge in radiobiology into question again. This note aims at discussing the importance of the quality of dosimetric assessments for any study performed 'in natura'. It seems that the ambient external dose rate is not systematically a good indicator of the dose or dose rate absorbed by a living organism in radio-contaminated environment. This note outlines the problem related to the spatial heterogeneity of the radioactive contamination, that some statistic methods are not always adapted to data set quality. It briefly indicates other factors which may affect the quality of data set obtained during in situ studies

Integrated well-to-wheel assessment on biofuels, analysing energy, emission and welfare economic consequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Slentoe, E.; Moeller, F.; Frederiksen, P.; Jepsen, M.R.

2011-07-15

Various biofuel evaluation methods exist, with different analytical framework setup and different scopes. The scope of this study is to develop an integrated method to evaluate the consequences of producing biofuels. The consequences should include energy consumption, emission and welfare economic changes within the well-to-wheel (WTW) flow chain focusing on the production of biomass, and the subsequent conversion into bio fuel and combustion in vehicles. This method (Moeller and Slentoe, 2010) is applied to a Danish case, implementing policy targets for biofuel use in the transport sector and also developing an alternative scenario of higher biofuel shares. This paper presents the results of three interlinked parallel running analyses, of energy consumption, emissions and welfare economics (Slentoe, Moeller and Winther, 2010), and discusses the feasibility of those analyses, which are based on the same consequential analysis method, comparing a scenario situation to a reference situation. As will be shown, the results are not univocal; example given, what is an energy gain is not necessarily a welfare economic gain. The study is conducted as part of the Danish REBECa project. Within this, two main scenarios, HS1 and HS2, for biofuel mixture in fossil diesel fuel and gasoline are established. The biofuel rape diesel (RME) stems from rape seeds and bioethanol stems from either wheat grains (1st generation) or straw (2nd generation) - all cultivated in Denmark. The share of 2nd generation bioethanol exceeds 1st generation bioethanol towards 2030. Both scenarios initiate at a 5.75% mixture in 2010 and reach 10% and 25% in 2030 for HS1 and HS2, such that the low mixture scenario reflects the Danish Act on sustainable biofuels (June 2009), implementing the EU renewable energy directive (2009/29/EC), using biofuels as energy carrier. The two scenarios are computed in two variants each, reflecting oil prices at 65$ and 100$ per barrel. (Author)

Consequence Reasoning in Multilevel Flow Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Xinxin; Lind, Morten; Ravn, Ole

2013-01-01

Consequence reasoning is a major element for operation support system to assess the plant situations. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate how Multilevel Flow Models can be used to reason about consequences of disturbances in complex engineering systems. MFM is a modelling methodology...... for representing process knowledge for complex systems. It represents the system by using means-end and part-whole decompositions, and describes not only the purposes and functions of the system but also the causal relations between them. Thus MFM is a tool for causal reasoning. The paper introduces MFM modelling...... syntax and gives detailed reasoning formulas for consequence reasoning. The reasoning formulas offers basis for developing rule-based system to perform consequence reasoning based on MFM, which can be used for alarm design, risk monitoring, and supervision and operation support system design....

On the use of IT investment assessment methods in the area of spatial data infrastructure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zwirowicz-Rutkowska Agnieszka

2016-06-01

Full Text Available One of the important issues concerning development of spatial data infrastructures (SDIs is the carrying out of economic and financial analysis. It is essential to determine expenses and also assess effects resulting from the development and use of infrastructures. Costs and benefits assessment could be associated with assessment of the infrastructure effectiveness and efficiency as well as the infrastructure value, understood as the infrastructure impact on economic aspects of an organisational performance, both of an organisation which realises an SDI project and all users of the infrastructure. The aim of this paper is an overview of various assessment methods of investment as well as an analysis of different types of costs and benefits used for information technology (IT projects. Based on the literature, the analysis of the examples of the use of these methods in the area of spatial data infrastructures is also presented. Furthermore, the issues of SDI projects and investments are outlined. The results of the analysis indicate usefulness of the financial methods from different fields of management in the area of SDI building, development and use. The author proposes, in addition to the financial methods, the adaptation of the various techniques used for IT investments and their development, taking into consideration the SDI specificity for the purpose of assessment of different types of costs and benefits and integration of financial aspects with non-financial ones. Among the challenges are identification and quantification of costs and benefits, as well as establishing measures which would fit the characteristics of the SDI project and artefacts resulting from the project realisation. Moreover, aspects of subjectivity and variability in time should be taken into account as the consequences of definite goals and policies as well as business context of organisation undertaking the project or using its artefacts and also investors.

On the use of IT investment assessment methods in the area of spatial data infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Zwirowicz-Rutkowska, Agnieszka

2016-06-01

One of the important issues concerning development of spatial data infrastructures (SDIs) is the carrying out of economic and financial analysis. It is essential to determine expenses and also assess effects resulting from the development and use of infrastructures. Costs and benefits assessment could be associated with assessment of the infrastructure effectiveness and efficiency as well as the infrastructure value, understood as the infrastructure impact on economic aspects of an organisational performance, both of an organisation which realises an SDI project and all users of the infrastructure. The aim of this paper is an overview of various assessment methods of investment as well as an analysis of different types of costs and benefits used for information technology (IT) projects. Based on the literature, the analysis of the examples of the use of these methods in the area of spatial data infrastructures is also presented. Furthermore, the issues of SDI projects and investments are outlined. The results of the analysis indicate usefulness of the financial methods from different fields of management in the area of SDI building, development and use. The author proposes, in addition to the financial methods, the adaptation of the various techniques used for IT investments and their development, taking into consideration the SDI specificity for the purpose of assessment of different types of costs and benefits and integration of financial aspects with non-financial ones. Among the challenges are identification and quantification of costs and benefits, as well as establishing measures which would fit the characteristics of the SDI project and artefacts resulting from the project realisation. Moreover, aspects of subjectivity and variability in time should be taken into account as the consequences of definite goals and policies as well as business context of organisation undertaking the project or using its artefacts and also investors.

Methodical Approach to Assessment of the Structure of Demand on the Products of the Restaurant Industry Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chorna Maryna V.

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The article presents a methodical approach to assessment of the structure of demand on the products (services of the restaurant industry enterprises and results of its approval. A characteristic feature of this approach is clear identification of stages and their logical consequence in the process of assessment (identification of the period of assessment – day, week, holidays, seasons; formation and systematisation of the information base by cost, quantitative and qualitative indicators; calculation of relative indicators of demand and income; building a matrix; and interpretation of results and application of the “demand level / income level” matrix. Use of the proposed approach allows identification of an assortment structure of the restaurant industry enterprise by correlation of the realised demand and obtained income, which gives a possibility to form managerial decisions on its improvement and also allows assessment of efficiency of these measures.

Combustion plants and the Water Framework Directive. Methodology for consequence assessment; Vaermeanlaeggningar och Vattendirektivet. Metodik foer konsekvensbedoemning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rossander, Annelie; Andersson, Jonas; Axby, Fredrik; Schultz, Emma; Persson, Maarten; Svaerd, Sara [Carl Bro AB, Kristianstad (Sweden)

2007-04-15

The project can be regarded as a natural continuation to the Vaermeforsk project M4-324 by Axby and Hansson: 'Practical consequences of the Water Framework Directive implementation for combustion plants - New water cleaning technologies and methods for improvement of effluent discharges'. The six different combustion plants studied in this project have been chosen mainly on the basis of their varying size, fuel, cleaning equipment and recipient. The significance of water as a finite resource in the global ecosystems has been more pronounced recently. In the light of the growing stresses on the water resources the European Parliament accepted the Water Framework Directive in year 2000. The main purpose with the directive is to achieve and preserve a 'good water status', among other things through a long term protection of available water resources. Enclosure X of the Framework Directive contains a list of chemical substances where 33 'prioritized substances' and 'prioritized, dangerous substances' are specified. The objective of the list is to reduce the discharges of prioritized substances, and to fully eliminate the prioritized, dangerous substances both from industry and other contexts. Twelve of the substances mentioned on the prioritized list can or could be found in the water coming out from combustion plants. A predominant part of these substances are to be totally phased out in the foreseeable future according to the Water Directive. This can result in restrictions in the permissions to let out water from combustion plants to the surroundings. The substances concerned are the heavy metals lead, cadmium, mercury and nickel, both as pure substances and included in compounds, as well as a number of different polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). The intent of the project has been to use an accepted computational model to create an analytic method (an ecotoxicological risk assessment), with the aim to meet the new requirements

Seismic assessment of a site using the time series method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krutzik, N.J.; Rotaru, I.; Bobei, M.; Mingiuc, C.; Serban, V.; Androne, M.

1997-01-01

To increase the safety of a NPP located on a seismic site, the seismic acceleration level to which the NPP should be qualified must be as representative as possible for that site, with a conservative degree of safety but not too exaggerated. The consideration of the seismic events affecting the site as independent events and the use of statistic methods to define some safety levels with very low annual occurrence probability (10 -4 ) may lead to some exaggerations of the seismic safety level. The use of some very high value for the seismic acceleration imposed by the seismic safety levels required by the hazard analysis may lead to very costly technical solutions that can make the plant operation more difficult and increase maintenance costs. The considerations of seismic events as a time series with dependence among the events produced, may lead to a more representative assessment of a NPP site seismic activity and consequently to a prognosis on the seismic level values to which the NPP would be ensured throughout its life-span. That prognosis should consider the actual seismic activity (including small earthquakes in real time) of the focuses that affect the plant site. The paper proposes the applications of Autoregressive Time Series to issue a prognosis on the seismic activity of a focus and presents the analysis on Vrancea focus that affects NPP Cernavoda site, by this method. The paper also presents the manner to analyse the focus activity as per the new approach and it assesses the maximum seismic acceleration that may affect NPP Cernavoda throughout its life-span (∼ 30 years). Development and applications of new mathematical analysis method, both for long - and short - time intervals, may lead to important contributions in the process of foretelling the seismic events in the future. (authors)

Enhancing Institutional Assessment Efforts through Qualitative Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Van Note Chism, Nancy; Banta, Trudy W.

2007-01-01

Qualitative methods can do much to describe context and illuminate the why behind patterns encountered in institutional assessment. Alone, or in combination with quantitative methods, they should be the approach of choice for many of the most important assessment questions. (Contains 1 table.)

Comprehensive transportation risk assessment system based on unit-consequence factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; LePoire, D.J.; Chen, S.Y.

1994-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement requires a comprehensive transportation risk analysis of radioactive waste shipments for large shipping campaigns. Thousands of unique shipments involving truck and rail transport must be analyzed; a comprehensive risk analysis is impossible with currently available methods. Argonne National Laboratory developed a modular transportation model that can handle the demands imposed by such an analysis. The modular design of the model facilitates the simple addition/updating of transportation routes and waste inventories, as required, and reduces the overhead associated with file maintenance and quality assurance. The model incorporates unit-consequences factors generated with the RADTRAN 4 transportation risk analysis code that are combined with an easy-to-use, menu-driven interface on IBM-compatible computers running under DOS. User selection of multiple origin/destination site pairs for the shipment of multiple radioactive waste inventories is permitted from pop-up lists. Over 800 predefined routes are available among more than 30 DOE sites and waste inventories that include high-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, transuranic waste, low-level waste, low-level mixed waste, and greater-than-Class C waste

Managing social impact in design: tools and methods for anticipating consequences of technology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouma, Jantine

2013-01-01

The use of email communication, mobile phones and cars has had wide-ranging social consequences. What is more, designers are plainly not always aware of all social consequences of technology, despite practicing user-centred design. Modern technology creates possibilities to influence social

A probabilistic assessment procedure for evaluating and comparing various NDT methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kauer, R.; Guo, W.F.; Schall, M.

2005-01-01

By applying NDT methodologies to assess the integrity of a certain structure, it is strictly recommended to have knowledge about the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods. Especially when new technologies shall be applied, the final question always will be: What is the influence on the overall integrity of the structure? Here, different Probability of Detection (PoD) capacities in combination with different accuracies in sizing a flaw and in combination with different initial crack distributions e.g. resulting from various fabrication methods yield to different values regarding false call rate, rejection rate, and failure rate. So the final goal must be to select the most appropriate and efficient methodology as well as a suitable acceptance criteria addressing the specific advantages and disadvantages of each method. Usually these acceptance criteria are given in the relevant codes. However, often there are various levels of acceptance given, depending on the criticality of the service conditions. In other cases, more information is needed about the consequences of those acceptance criteria to a specific structure. Another application might be the evaluation of a 'new' NDT technology in comparison to an established one. For this purpose, we present a probabilistic evaluation method starting with the initial failure distribution and taking into account PoD and sizing capacities of certain NDT-methods. Finally, Failure Rate, False Call Rate, and Rejection Rate can be presented with respect to the acceptance criteria chosen. (authors)

New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

2011-12-01

Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

Ground assessment methods for nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-01-01

It is needless to say that nuclear power plant must be constructed on the most stable and safe ground. Reliable assessment method is required for the purpose. The Ground Integrity Sub-committee of the Committee of Civil Engineering of Nuclear Power Plant started five working groups, the purpose of which is to systematize the assessment procedures including geological survey, ground examination and construction design. The works of working groups are to establishing assessment method of activities of faults, standardizing the rock classification method, standardizing assessment and indication method of ground properties, standardizing test methods and establishing the application standard for design and construction. Flow diagrams for the procedures of geological survey, for the investigation on fault activities and ground properties of area where nuclear reactor and important outdoor equipments are scheduled to construct, were established. And further, flow diagrams for applying investigated results to design and construction of plant, and for determining procedure of liquidification nature of ground etc. were also established. These systematized and standardized methods of investigation are expected to yield reliable data for assessment of construction site of nuclear power plant and lead to the safety of construction and operation in the future. In addition, the execution of these systematized and detailed preliminary investigation for determining the construction site of nuclear power plant will make much contribution for obtaining nation-wide understanding and faith for the project. (Ishimitsu, A.)

COSYMA, a mainframe and PC program package for assessing the consequences of hypothetical accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, J.A.; Hasemann, I.; Steen, J. van der

1996-01-01

COSYMA (Code System from MARIA) is a program package for assessing the off-site consequences of accidental releases of radioactive material to atmosphere, developed as part of the European Commission's MARIA programme (Methods for Assessing the Radiological Impact of Accidents). COSYMA represents a fusion of ideas and modules from the Forschungszetrum Karlsruhe program system UFOMOD, the National Radiological Protection Board program MARC and new model developments together with data libraries from other MARIA contractors. Mainframe and PC versions of COSYMA are distributed to interested users by arrangement with the European Commission. The system was first released in 1990, and has subsequently been updated. The program system uses independent modules for the different parts of the analysis, and so permits a flexible problem-oriented application to different sites, source terms, emergency plans and the needs of users in the various parts of Europe. Users of the mainframe system can choose the most appropriate combination of modules for their particular application. The PC version includes a user interface which selects the required modules for the endpoints specified by the user. This paper describes the structure of the mainframe and PC versions of COSYMA, and summarises the models included in them. The mainframe or PC versions of COSYMA have been distributed to more than 100 organisations both inside and outside the European Union, and have been used in a wide variety of applications. These range from full PRA level 3 analyses of nuclear power and research reactors to investigations on advanced containment concepts and the preplanning of off-site emergency actions. Some of the experiences from these applications are described in the paper. An international COSYMA user group has been established to stimulate communication between the owners, developers and users of the code and to serve as a reference point for questions relating to the code. The group produces

Nurses' and physicians' perceptions of Confusion Assessment Method for the intensive care unit for delirium detection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Oxenbøll-Collet, Marie; Egerod, Ingrid; Christensen, Vibeke

2018-01-01

of this study was to identify nurses' and physicians' perceived professional barriers to using the CAM-ICU in Danish ICUs. Methods: This study uses a qualitative explorative multicentre design using focus groups and a semi-structured interview guide. Five focus groups with nurses (n=20) and four with physicians......-ICU screening affected nursing care, clinical judgment and professional integrity; (2) Instrument reliability: nurses and physicians expressed concerns about CAM-ICU assessment in non-sedated patients, patients with multi-organ failure or patients influenced by residual sedatives/opioids; and (3) Clinical...... consequence: after CAM-ICU assessment, physicians lacked evidence-based treatment options, and nurses lacked physician acknowledgment and guidelines for disclosing CAM-ICU results to patients. Conclusion: In this study, ICU nurses and physicians raised a number of concerns regarding the use of the CAM...

Procedures for conducting probabilistic safety assessments of nuclear power plants (level 3). Off-site consequences and estimation of risks to the public

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

This report is concerned with the analysis of the release of radionuclides and their transfer through the environment, and with the assessment of the public health and economic consequences of an accident. 65 refs, 4 figs, 1 tab

Qualitative Assessment of Inquiry-Based Teaching Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, Michael; Long, George; Owens, Katrina

2011-01-01

A new approach to teaching method assessment using student focused qualitative studies and the theoretical framework of mental models is proposed. The methodology is considered specifically for the advantages it offers when applied to the assessment of inquiry-based teaching methods. The theoretical foundation of mental models is discussed, and…

An integrated simulation method for flash-flood risk assessment: 2. Effects of changes in land-use under a historical perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Rosso, R.; Rulli, M. C.

The influence of land use changes on flood occurrence and severity in the Bisagno River (Thyrrenian Liguria, N.W. Italy is investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation approach (Rulli and Rosso, 2002). High resolution land-use maps for the area were reconstructed and scenario simulations were made for a pre-industrial (1878), an intermediate (1930) and a current (1980) year. Land-use effects were explored to assess the consequences of distributed changes in land use due to agricultural practice and urbanisation. Hydraulic conveyance effects were considered, to assess the consequences of channel modifications associated with engineering works in the lower Bisagno River network. Flood frequency analyses of the annual flood series, retrieved from the simulations, were used to examine the effect of land-use change and river conveyance on flood regime. The impact of these effects proved to be negligible in the upper Bisagno River, moderate in the downstream river and severe in the small tributaries in the lower Bisagno valley that drain densely populated urban areas. The simulation approach is shown to be capable of incorporating historical data on landscape and river patterns into quantitative methods for risk assessment.

Methods to Assess Geological CO2 Storage Capacity: Status and Best Practice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-08-01

To understand the emission reduction potential of carbon capture and storage (CCS), decision makers need to understand the amount of CO2 that can be safely stored in the subsurface and the geographical distribution of storage resources. Estimates of storage resources need to be made using reliable and consistent methods. Previous estimates of CO2 storage potential for a range of countries and regions have been based on a variety of methodologies resulting in a correspondingly wide range of estimates. Consequently, there has been uncertainty about which of the methodologies were most appropriate in given settings, and whether the estimates produced by these methods were useful to policy makers trying to determine the appropriate role of CCS. In 2011, the IEA convened two workshops which brought together experts for six national surveys organisations to review CO2 storage assessment methodologies and make recommendations on how to harmonise CO2 storage estimates worldwide. This report presents the findings of these workshops and an internationally shared guideline for quantifying CO2 storage resources.

Managing social impact in design : Tools and methods for anticipating consequences of technology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouma, Jantine

2013-01-01

We need look no further than the use of email communication, mobile phones and cars to understand that technology has wide-ranging social consequences. What is more, designers are plainly not always aware of the social consequences of technology, despite practicing user-centred design. Email, for

29 CFR 825.404 - Consequences for an employer when not paying the penalty assessment after a final order is issued.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Consequences for an employer when not paying the penalty assessment after a final order is issued. 825.404 Section 825.404 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) WAGE AND HOUR DIVISION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR OTHER LAWS THE FAMILY AND MEDICAL LEAVE ACT OF 1993...

The international Chernobyl project: Assessment of radiological consequences and evaluation of protective measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-08-01

This brochure gives a brief account of the findings of the International Chernobyl Project. Further details will be found in the report ''The International Chernobyl Project: An Overview'' (INI22:066284/5) and in the Technical Report (INI23:011339). Measurements and assessments carried out under the project provided general corroboration of the levels of surface cesium-137 contamination reported in the official maps. The project also concluded that the official procedures for estimating radiation doses to the population were scientifically sound, although they generally resulted in overestimates of two- to threefold. The project could find no marked increase in the incidence of leukemia or cancer, but reported absorbed thyroid doses in children might lead to a statistically detectable rise in the incidence of thyroid tumors. Significant non-radiation-related health disorders were found, and the accident had substantial psychological consequences in terms of anxiety and stress

Method for investigating management impact to causes and consequences of specific hazards MIMIX

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heikkilae, J; Rouhiainen, V; Suokas, J [VTT Manufacturing Technology, Tampere (Finland). Safety Engineering; Rasmussen, B [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

1996-12-31

Method for Investigating Management Impact to Causes and Consequences of Specific Hazards (MIMIX) is a new method for the identification of deficiencies in managerial means and practices used for maintaining and improving safety in a plant. MIMIX is a part of TOMHID methodology which is aimed for overall identification of hazards in a chemical plant. However, MIMIX can be used independently. This report includes guidelines for carrying out a MIMIX analysis. Some experiences from TOMHID analysis case studies, forms and other supporting material (appendix A) and an example of the preparation of incident scenarios (appendix B) are also included in the report. MIMIX consists of three main stages: preparation of incident scenarios, worker interviews and management interviews. A couple of incident scenarios are prepared to support the worker interviews. In each worker interview, such undesired conditions in the plant which promote errors and violations affecting the incident described in a scenario are identified. Deficiencies in managerial means and practices used for correcting the identified undesired conditions are investigated with management interviews. (author)

Method for investigating management impact to causes and consequences of specific hazards MIMIX

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heikkilae, J.; Rouhiainen, V.; Suokas, J. [VTT Manufacturing Technology, Tampere (Finland). Safety Engineering; Rasmussen, B. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

1995-12-31

Method for Investigating Management Impact to Causes and Consequences of Specific Hazards (MIMIX) is a new method for the identification of deficiencies in managerial means and practices used for maintaining and improving safety in a plant. MIMIX is a part of TOMHID methodology which is aimed for overall identification of hazards in a chemical plant. However, MIMIX can be used independently. This report includes guidelines for carrying out a MIMIX analysis. Some experiences from TOMHID analysis case studies, forms and other supporting material (appendix A) and an example of the preparation of incident scenarios (appendix B) are also included in the report. MIMIX consists of three main stages: preparation of incident scenarios, worker interviews and management interviews. A couple of incident scenarios are prepared to support the worker interviews. In each worker interview, such undesired conditions in the plant which promote errors and violations affecting the incident described in a scenario are identified. Deficiencies in managerial means and practices used for correcting the identified undesired conditions are investigated with management interviews. (author)

Development of an accident consequence assessment code for evaluating site suitability of light- and heavy-water reactors based on the Korean Technical standards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hwang, Won Tae; Jeong, Hae Sung; Jeong, Hyo Joon; Kil, A Reum; Kim, Eun Han; Han, Moon Hee [Nuclear Environment Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

Methodologies for a series of radiological consequence assessments show a distinctive difference according to the design principles of the original nuclear suppliers and their technical standards to be imposed. This is due to the uncertainties of the accidental source term, radionuclide behavior in the environment, and subsequent radiological dose. Both types of PWR and PHWR are operated in Korea. However, technical standards for evaluating atmospheric dispersion have been enacted based on the U.S. NRC's positions regardless of the reactor types. For this reason, it might cause a controversy between the licensor and licensee of a nuclear power plant. It was modelled under the framework of the NRC Regulatory Guide 1.145 for light-water reactors, reflecting the features of heavy-water reactors as specified in the Canadian National Standard and the modelling features in MACCS2, such as atmospheric diffusion coefficient, ground deposition, surface roughness, radioactive plume depletion, and exposure from ground deposition. An integrated accident consequence assessment code, ACCESS (Accident Consequence Assessment Code for Evaluating Site Suitability), was developed by taking into account the unique regulatory positions for reactor types under the framework of the current Korean technical standards. Field tracer experiments and hand calculations have been carried out for validation and verification of the models. The modelling approaches of ACCESS and its features are introduced, and its applicative results for a hypothetical accidental scenario are comprehensively discussed. In an applicative study, the predicted results by the light-water reactor assessment model were higher than those by other models in terms of total doses.

Failure of Passive Immune Transfer in Calves: A Meta-Analysis on the Consequences and Assessment of the Economic Impact.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Didier Raboisson

Full Text Available Low colostrum intake at birth results in the failure of passive transfer (FPT due to the inadequate ingestion of colostral immunoglobulins (Ig. FPT is associated with an increased risk of mortality and decreased health and longevity. Despite the known management practices associated with low FPT, it remains an important issue in the field. Neither a quantitative analysis of FPT consequences nor an assessment of its total cost are available. To address this point, a meta-analysis on the adjusted associations between FPT and its outcomes was first performed. Then, the total costs of FPT in European systems were calculated using a stochastic method with adjusted values as the input parameters. The adjusted risks (and 95% confidence intervals for mortality, bovine respiratory disease, diarrhoea and overall morbidity in the case of FPT were 2.12 (1.43-3.13, 1.75 (1.50-2.03, 1.51 (1.05-2.17 and 1.91 (1.63-2.24, respectively. The mean (and 95% prediction interval total costs per calf with FPT were estimated to be €60 (€10-109 and €80 (€20-139 for dairy and beef, respectively. As a result of the double-step stochastic method, the proposed economic estimation constitutes the first estimate available for FPT. The results are presented in a way that facilitates their use in the field and, with limited effort, combines the cost of each contributor to increase the applicability of the economic assessment to the situations farm-advisors may face. The present economic estimates are also an important tool to evaluate the profitability of measures that aim to improve colostrum intake and FPT prevention.

Overview of methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.

1985-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed

Development on Vulnerability Assessment Methods of PPS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

MIAO; Qiang; ZHANG; Wen-liang; BU; Li-xin; YIN; Hong-he; LI; Xin-jun; FANG; Xin

2013-01-01

Through investigating information from domestic and abroad,joint the domestic assessment experience,we present a set of physical protection system(PPS)vulnerability assessment methods for on-operating nuclear power plants and for on-designing nuclear facilities.The methods will help to strengthen and upgrade the security measures of the nuclear facilities,improve the effectiveness and

Assessing the Frequency and Material Consequences of Collisions with Vessels Lying at an Anchorage in Line with IALA iWrap MkII

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hans-Christoph Burmeister

2014-03-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a collision model for ships underway and temporary objects as an extension to state-of-the-art maritime risk assessment like IALA iWrap MkII. It gives a brief review of frequency modeling's and consequence calculation theory as well as its applications, before it analogously derives a model to assess the risk of anchorage areas. Subsequently, its benefit is demonstrated by an example scenario.

ARANO - a computer program for the assessment of radiological consequences of atmospheric radioactive releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savolainen, I.; Vuori, S.

1980-09-01

A short description of the calculation possibilities, methods and of the structure of the computer code system ARANO is given, in addition to the input quide. The code can be employed in the calculation of environmental radiological consequences caused by radioactive materials released to atmosphere. Results can be individual doses for different organs at given distances from the release point, collective doses, numbers of persons exceeding given dose limits, numbers of casualties, areas polluted by deposited activity and losses of investments or production due to radioactive contamination. Both a case with a single release and atmospheric dispersion situation and a group of radioactive release and dispersions with discrete probability distributions can be considered. If the radioactive releases or the dispersion conditions are described by probability distributions, the program assesses the magnitudes of the specified effects in all combinations of the release and dispersion situations and then calculates the expectation values and the cumulative probability distributions of the effects. The vertical mixing in the atmosphere is described with a Ksub(Z)-model. In the lateral direction the plume is assumed to be Gaussian, and the release duration can be taken into account in the σsub(y)-values. External gamma dose from the release plume is calculated on the basis of a data file which has been created by 3-dimensional integration. Dose due to inhalation and due to gamma radiation from the contaminated ground are calculated by using appropriate dose conversion factors, which are collected into two mutually alternative block data subprograms. (author)

Adolescent childbearing: consequences and interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruedinger, Emily; Cox, Joanne E

2012-08-01

Adolescent childbearing in the United States continues to occur at high rates compared with other industrialized nations, despite a recent decline. Adolescent mothers and their offspring are at risk for negative outcomes. Recent literature exploring the consequences of teenage childbearing and interventions to ameliorate these consequences are presented. Negative consequences of adolescent childbearing can impact mothers and their offspring throughout the lifespan. These consequences are likely attributable to social and environmental factors rather than solely to maternal age. Increasing educational attainment, preventing repeat pregnancy and improving mother-child interactions can improve outcomes for mothers and their children. Home, community, school and clinic-based programs are all viable models of service delivery to this population. Connecting teen mothers with comprehensive services to meet their social, economic, health and educational needs can potentially improve long-term outcomes for both mothers and their offspring. Programs that deliver care to this population in culturally sensitive, developmentally appropriate ways have demonstrated success. Future investigation of parenting interventions with larger sample sizes and that assess multiple outcomes will allow comparison among programs. Explorations of the role of the father and coparenting are also directions for future research.

A Security Assessment Approach with Graded Importance Score of Security Controls and Asset Consequence for I and C Systems in Operating NPPs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sooill; Kim, Yong Sik; Moon, Insun; Lee, Euijong [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

This paper introduces a security assessment approach with graded importance score of security controls and the asset consequence through an asset and risk analysis to manage the security levels in operating NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants). Whereas, those are being exposed to various types of new and existing cyber threats, vulnerabilities and risks which significantly increase the likelihood that those could be compromised. U.S. NRC(United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and KINAC(Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation And Control) request the cyber security plan by establishing the cyber security program through assessing and managing the potential for adverse effect on safety, security and emergency preparedness functions so as to provide high assurance that critical functions are properly protected from the cyber-attack. This paper shows the security assessment approach with graded importance score of security controls and the asset consequence. It could lead to manage the security levels consistent with the purpose of defense in- depth strategy based on regulatory rule as well as internal risk-based self-assessment. Also, this management of the security level may make effect of encouraging the installation of high ranked countermeasures in order to rapidly increase the security level. Proposed approach could be conducted for the pilot test on the model plants with each reactor type of operating NPPs.

A Security Assessment Approach with Graded Importance Score of Security Controls and Asset Consequence for I and C Systems in Operating NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sooill; Kim, Yong Sik; Moon, Insun; Lee, Euijong

2016-01-01

This paper introduces a security assessment approach with graded importance score of security controls and the asset consequence through an asset and risk analysis to manage the security levels in operating NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants). Whereas, those are being exposed to various types of new and existing cyber threats, vulnerabilities and risks which significantly increase the likelihood that those could be compromised. U.S. NRC(United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and KINAC(Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation And Control) request the cyber security plan by establishing the cyber security program through assessing and managing the potential for adverse effect on safety, security and emergency preparedness functions so as to provide high assurance that critical functions are properly protected from the cyber-attack. This paper shows the security assessment approach with graded importance score of security controls and the asset consequence. It could lead to manage the security levels consistent with the purpose of defense in- depth strategy based on regulatory rule as well as internal risk-based self-assessment. Also, this management of the security level may make effect of encouraging the installation of high ranked countermeasures in order to rapidly increase the security level. Proposed approach could be conducted for the pilot test on the model plants with each reactor type of operating NPPs

Adverse consequences of student drinking: the role of sex, social anxiety, drinking motives.

Science.gov (United States)

Norberg, Melissa M; Olivier, Jake; Alperstein, Dion M; Zvolensky, Michael J; Norton, Alice R

2011-08-01

This study examined whether biological sex, social anxiety, and drinking motives relate differently to distinct types of alcohol-related consequences using Poisson regression. One hundred eighteen college students completed self-report measures assessing drinking motives and social anxiety and an interview assessing alcohol consumption and consequences. Highly socially anxious women were particularly apt to experience adverse role functioning consequences, while men were particularly apt to experience physical consequences. Although highly socially anxious women reported more personal consequences than did women with low to moderate social anxiety, men with low to moderate social anxiety reported experiencing more social and personal consequences than did women with low to moderate social anxiety. When taking into consideration the above associations, coping motives were statistically associated with social consequences and marginally related to personal consequences, while enhancement motives were significantly associated with physical consequences. Targeting these factors may lead to effective interventions for individuals with co-occurring social anxiety and drinking problems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How best to capture the respiratory consequences of prematurity?

Science.gov (United States)

Ciuffini, Francesca; Robertson, Colin F; Tingay, David G

2018-03-31

Chronic respiratory morbidity is a common complication of premature birth, generally defined by the presence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia, both clinically and in trials of respiratory therapies. However, recent data have highlighted that bronchopulmonary dysplasia does not correlate with chronic respiratory morbidity in older children born preterm. Longitudinally evaluating pulmonary morbidity from early life through to childhood provides a more rational method of defining the continuum of chronic respiratory morbidity of prematurity, and offers new insights into the efficacy of neonatal respiratory interventions. The changing nature of preterm lung disease suggests that a multimodal approach using dynamic lung function assessment will be needed to assess the efficacy of a neonatal respiratory therapy and predict the long-term respiratory consequences of premature birth. Our aim is to review the literature regarding the long-term respiratory outcomes of neonatal respiratory strategies, the difficulties of assessing dynamic lung function in infants, and potential new solutions. Copyright ©ERS 2018.

On the assessment of adverse consequences of Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burlakova, E.B.

2007-01-01

of the damages. With this kind of low-level irradiation, the reparative systems either are not initiated (induced), or function inadequately, or are initiated with a delay, i.e., when the exposed object has already received radiation damages. Recently, the absence of reparation at low irradiation doses was verified on the cell level, and the complex character of the dose dependence was confirmed. Previously, we published a similar scheme of dependence of damages on irradiation dose, which was different for different dose ranges. According to the scheme, the quantitative characteristics were similar for the doses that differed by several orders of magnitude; in a certain dose range, the effect may have an opposite sign.The results obtained and supported by numerous experiments are important because the above dose dependences made it possible to come to conclusion about a radiogenic or non-radiogenic character of changes observed in an irradiated organism. The indisputable conclusion that if the effect increases with the dose it is evidence for its radiogenic nature is by no means in favor of an opposite statement, i.e., that the absence of a direct dose-effect dependence but its nonmonotonic character is evidence for the absence of a relation of the effect to irradiation. The controversial conclusions of International and Russian organizations stem mainly from the underestimation and misunderstanding of the effects of ultra-low and low irradiation doses, reluctance to apply other criteria to assess the consequences of irradiation on human health, and conviction (groundless) that low doses cause either no damages or such minor damages that they may be neglected and disregarded. In the lecture, data that elucidate the above controversies will be presented.

Personality, Assessment Methods and Academic Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Furnham, Adrian; Nuygards, Sarah; Chamorro-Premuzic, Tomas

2013-01-01

This study examines the relationship between personality and two different academic performance (AP) assessment methods, namely exams and coursework. It aimed to examine whether the relationship between traits and AP was consistent across self-reported versus documented exam results, two different assessment techniques and across different…

Antecedents and Consequences of Affective Commitment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bloemer, J.M.M.; Odekerken-Schröder, G.J.

2003-01-01

The primary objective of this study is to assess the impact of three psychological antecedents (position involvement, volitional choice and informational complexity) on affective commitment in a financial service setting. Furthermore, this study addresses the consequences of affective commitment on

A proposed impact assessment method for genetically modified plants (AS-GMP Method)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jesus-Hitzschky, Katia Regina Evaristo de; Silveira, Jose Maria F.J. da

2009-01-01

An essential step in the development of products based on biotechnology is an assessment of their potential economic impacts and safety, including an evaluation of the potential impact of transgenic crops and practices related to their cultivation on the environment and human or animal health. The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment method to evaluate the impact of biotechnologies that uses quantifiable parameters and allows a comparative analysis between conventional technology and technologies using GMOs. This paper introduces a method to perform an impact analysis associated with the commercial release and use of genetically modified plants, the Assessment System GMP Method. The assessment is performed through indicators that are arranged according to their dimension criterion likewise: environmental, economic, social, capability and institutional approach. To perform an accurate evaluation of the GMP specific indicators related to genetic modification are grouped in common fields: genetic insert features, GM plant features, gene flow, food/feed field, introduction of the GMP, unexpected occurrences and specific indicators. The novelty is the possibility to include specific parameters to the biotechnology under assessment. In this case by case analysis the factors of moderation and the indexes are parameterized to perform an available assessment.

The program system UFOMOD for assessing the consequences of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehrhardt, J.; Burkart, K.; Hasemann, I.; Matzerath, C.; Panitz, H.J.; Steinhauer, C.

1988-10-01

The programm system UFOMOD is a completely new accident consequence assessment (ACA) code. Its structure and modelling is based on the experience gained from applications of the old UFOMOD code during and after the German Risk Study - Phase A, the results of scientific investigations performed within the ongoing Phase B and the CEC-project MARIA, and the requirements resulting from the extended use of ACAs to help in decision-making. One of the most important improvements is the introduction of different trajecotry models for describing atmospheric dispersion in the near range and at larger distances. Emergency actions and countermeasures modelling takes into account recommendations of international commissions. The dosimetric models contain completely new age-, sex- and time-dependent data of dose-conversion factors for external and internal radiation; the ingestion pathway is modelled to consider seasonal dependencies. New dose-risk-relationships for stochastic and non-stochastic health effects are implemented; a special algorithm developed for ACA codes allows individual and collective leukemia and cancer risks to be presented as a function of time after the accident. According to the modular structure of the new program system UFOMOD, an easy access to parameter values and the results of the various submodels exists what facilitates sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. (orig.) [de

Medical social consequences of the safety problems of oncological radiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pilipenko, M.Yi.; Stadnik, L.L.; Shal'opa, O.Yu.; Rigan, M.M.; Skalets'kij, Yu.M.

2015-01-01

Actuality of the problem of patient safety in oncoradiology in Ukraine is grounded. The results of international audit TLD (IAEA/WHO) quality during dosimetry procedures cobalt-telegamma vehicles in Ukraine are investigated, as well as legal and regulatory framework providing for the safety of radiotherapy care, scientific publications on patient safety. Methods: statistical, analytical, bibliographical, systematic approach. On the example of radiation therapy using the results of the international program of the IAEA/WHO TLD audit quality dosimetry calibration devices for remote gamma therapy in Ukraine from 1998 to 2014 the attempt to assess the extent of medical and social consequences of underestimating of medical errors in oncoradiology is made. The problems of regulatory nature of medical errors in oncoradiology are preliminary identified. The problem of medical errors in the treatment of cancer radiation methods in Ukraine is extremely important. Usually the problems of errors in oncoradiology are considered in organizational, technical, personnel and technical aspects, while medical and social consequences of problem are not covered. About 10 thousand of cancer patients in year may suffer from errors related only to dose calculation according to the optimistic variant, while the number of patients for the same period on the pessimistic case can reach 15 thousand. There are a number of legal character problems in oncoradiology related to patient safety that require clarification. The first priority for improving the safety of patients in oncoradiology is the recording and analysis of radiation therapy defects and their consequences

Assessment methods in surgical training in the United Kingdom

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evgenios Evgeniou

2013-02-01

Full Text Available A career in surgery in the United Kingdom demands a commitment to a long journey of assessment. The assessment methods used must ensure that the appropriate candidates are selected into a programme of study or a job and must guarantee public safety by regulating the progression of surgical trainees and the certification of trained surgeons. This review attempts to analyse the psychometric properties of various assessment methods used in the selection of candidates to medical school, job selection, progression in training, and certification. Validity is an indicator of how well an assessment measures what it is designed to measure. Reliability informs us whether a test is consistent in its outcome by measuring the reproducibility and discriminating ability of the test. In the long journey of assessment in surgical training, the same assessment formats are frequently being used for selection into a programme of study, job selection, progression, and certification. Although similar assessment methods are being used for different purposes in surgical training, the psychometric properties of these assessment methods have not been examined separately for each purpose. Because of the significance of these assessments for trainees and patients, their reliability and validity should be examined thoroughly in every context where the assessment method is being used.

Use of a risk assessment method to improve the safety of negative pressure wound therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lelong, Anne-Sophie; Martelli, Nicolas; Bonan, Brigitte; Prognon, Patrice; Pineau, Judith

2014-06-01

To conduct a risk analysis of the negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) care process and to improve the safety of NPWT, a working group of nurses, hospital pharmacists, physicians and hospital managers performed a risk analysis for the process of NPWT care. The failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) method was used for this analysis. Failure modes and their consequences were defined and classified as a function of their criticality to identify priority actions for improvement. By contrast to classical FMECA, the criticality index (CI) of each consequence was calculated by multiplying occurrence, severity and detection scores. We identified 13 failure modes, leading to 20 different consequences. The CI of consequences was initially 712, falling to 357 after corrective measures were implemented. The major improvements proposed included the establishment of 6-monthly training cycles for nurses, physicians and surgeons and the introduction of computerised prescription for NPWT. The FMECA method also made it possible to prioritise actions as a function of the criticality ranking of consequences and was easily understood and used by the working group. This study is, to our knowledge, the first to use the FMECA method to improve the safety of NPWT. © 2012 The Authors. International Wound Journal © 2012 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Verification of computer system PROLOG - software tool for rapid assessments of consequences of short-term radioactive releases to the atmosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kiselev, Alexey A.; Krylov, Alexey L.; Bogatov, Sergey A. [Nuclear Safety Institute (IBRAE), Bolshaya Tulskaya st. 52, 115191, Moscow (Russian Federation)

2014-07-01

In case of nuclear and radiation accidents emergency response authorities require a tool for rapid assessments of possible consequences. One of the most significant problems is lack of data on initial state of an accident. The lack can be especially critical in case the accident occurred in a location that was not thoroughly studied beforehand (during transportation of radioactive materials for example). One of possible solutions is the hybrid method when a model that enables rapid assessments with the use of reasonable minimum of input data is used conjointly with an observed data that can be collected shortly after accidents. The model is used to estimate parameters of the source and uncertain meteorological parameters on the base of some observed data. For example, field of fallout density can be observed and measured within hours after an accident. After that the same model with the use of estimated parameters is used to assess doses and necessity of recommended and mandatory countermeasures. The computer system PROLOG was designed to solve the problem. It is based on the widely used Gaussian model. The standard Gaussian model is supplemented with several sub-models that allow to take into account: polydisperse aerosols, aerodynamic shade from buildings in the vicinity of the place of accident, terrain orography, initial size of the radioactive cloud, effective height of the release, influence of countermeasures on the doses of radioactive exposure of humans. It uses modern GIS technologies and can use web map services. To verify ability of PROLOG to solve the problem it is necessary to test its ability to assess necessary parameters of real accidents in the past. Verification of the computer system on the data of Chazhma Bay accident (Russian Far East, 1985) was published previously. In this work verification was implemented on the base of observed contamination from the Kyshtym disaster (PA Mayak, 1957) and the Tomsk accident (1993). Observations of Sr-90

Safety assessment of geologic repositories for nuclear waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartlett, J.W.; Burkholder, H.C.; Winegardner, W.K.

1977-01-01

Consideration of geologic isolation for final disposition of radioactive wastes has led to the need for evaluation of the safety of the concept. Such evaluations require consideration of factors not encountered in conventional risk analysis: consequences at times and places far removed from the repository site; indirect, complex, and alternative pathways between the waste and the point of potential consequences; a highly limited data base; and limited opportunity for experimental verification of results. R and D programs to provide technical safety evaluations are under way. Three methods are being considered for the probabilistic aspects of the evaluations: fault tree analysis, repository simulation analysis, and system stability analysis. Nuclide transport models, currently in a relatively advanced state of development, are used to evaluate consequences of postulated loss of geologic isolation. This paper outlines the safety assessment methods, unique features of the assessment problem that affect selection of methods and reliability of results, and available results. It also discusses potential directions for future work

An assessment of methods for monitoring entrance surface dose in fluoroscopically guided interventional procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waite, J.C.; Fitzgerald, M.

2001-01-01

In the light of a growing awareness of the risks of inducing skin injuries as a consequence of fluoroscopically guided interventional procedures (FGIPs), this paper compares three methods of monitoring entrance surface dose (ESD). It also reports measurements of ESDs made during the period August 1998 to June 1999 on 137 patients undergoing cardiac, neurological and general FGIPs. Although the sample is small, the results reinforce the need for routine assessments to be made of ESDs in FGIPs. At present, the most reliable and accurate form of ESD measurement would seem to be arrays of TLDs. However, transducer based methods, although likely to be less accurate, have considerable advantages in relation to a continuous monitoring programme. It is also suggested that there may be the potential locally for threshold dose area product (DAP) values to be set for specific procedures. These could be used to provide early warning of the potential for skin injuries. (author)

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertain assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the expert panel on late health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

An Approach for Assessing Consequences of Potential Supply Chain and Insider Contributed Cyber Attacks on Nuclear Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chu, Tsong-Lun [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Varuttamaseni, Athi [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Baek, Joo-Seok [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Pepper, Susan [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

2016-11-01

This paper provides an approach for developing potential attacks on I and C systems of NPPs and assessing their consequences. An important concept is that the NPPs were not designed to cope with Stuxnet-type of attacks (and any other cyber attacks). That is, the plants were only designed for design basis accidents. The safety margins and redundancies built in the design are all based on design basis accidents. They may be helpful in mitigating cyberattacks, but may not be adequate.

An Approach for Assessing Consequences of Potential Supply Chain and Insider Contributed Cyber Attacks on Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, Tsong-Lun; Varuttamaseni, Athi; Baek, Joo-Seok; Pepper, Susan

2016-01-01

This paper provides an approach for developing potential attacks on I and C systems of NPPs and assessing their consequences. An important concept is that the NPPs were not designed to cope with Stuxnet-type of attacks (and any other cyber attacks). That is, the plants were only designed for design basis accidents. The safety margins and redundancies built in the design are all based on design basis accidents. They may be helpful in mitigating cyberattacks, but may not be adequate.

Improved atmospheric dispersion modelling in the new program system UFOMOD for accident consequence assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panitz, H.J.

1988-01-01

An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straightline Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different concepts of dispersion modelling on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been carried out. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that these trajectory models provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completly novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling which distinguish between two different distance ranges of validity: the near range ( 50 km). The two ranges are assigned to respective trajectory models

The implication of using ''consequences'' as a criterion for reactor design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cave, L.; Holmes, P.

1978-01-01

The influences which may necessitate closer consideration of reactor accident consequences, rather than reactor risk, as a criterion for design are examined briefly. Possible methods for reducing consequences are described and the advantages of inherent features for this purpose are discussed. The cost effectiveness of two possible methods of reducing consequences and risks is estimated. (author)

The use of consequence modelling in assessing accidental releases of activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, R.H.; Hemming, C.R.; Kelly, G.N.

1982-01-01

The radiological consequences of an accidental release can be expressed as the number of health effects in the exposed population and its descendents, and the economic and social implications that may result from restrictions placed on the consumption of foodstuffs, or on the occupation of domestic and commercial premises. For any given release of activity there will be a probability distribution of consequences which will depend on the meteorological characteristics and demographic data particular to the release location. The characteristics of this distribution should be important in reaching judgements on the acceptability of a given site or design. The relative importance of the different endpoints is analysed and the influence of the release location on the resulting distribution is considered. (author)

Testing an Automated Accuracy Assessment Method on Bibliographic Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marlies Olensky

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This study investigates automated data accuracy assessment as described in data quality literature for its suitability to assess bibliographic data. The data samples comprise the publications of two Nobel Prize winners in the field of Chemistry for a 10-year-publication period retrieved from the two bibliometric data sources, Web of Science and Scopus. The bibliographic records are assessed against the original publication (gold standard and an automatic assessment method is compared to a manual one. The results show that the manual assessment method reflects truer accuracy scores. The automated assessment method would need to be extended by additional rules that reflect specific characteristics of bibliographic data. Both data sources had higher accuracy scores per field than accumulated per record. This study contributes to the research on finding a standardized assessment method of bibliographic data accuracy as well as defining the impact of data accuracy on the citation matching process.

SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea ARMEAN

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

Paying for hospital-based care of Kala-azar in Nepal: assessing catastrophic, impoverishment and economic consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Adhikari, Shiva R; Maskay, Nephil M; Sharma, Bishnu P

2009-03-01

Households obtaining health care services in developing countries incur substantial costs, despite services generally being provided free of charge by public health institutions. This constitutes an economic burden on low-income households, and contributes to deepening their level of poverty. In addition to the economic burden of obtaining health care, the method of financing these payments has implications for the distribution of household assets. This effect on resource-poor households is amplified since they have decreased access to health insurance. Recent literature, however, ignores the importance of the method of financing health care payments. This paper looks at the case of Nepal and highlights the impact on households of paying for hospital-based care of Kala-azar (KA) by analysing the catastrophic, impoverishment and economic consequences of their coping strategies. The paper utilizes micro-data on a random selection of 50% of the KA-affected households of Siraha and Saptari districts of Nepal. The empirical results suggest that direct costs of hospital-based treatment of KA are catastrophic since they consume 17% of annual household income. This expenditure causes more than 20% of KA-affected households to fall below the poverty line, with the remaining households being pushed into the category of marginal poor; the poverty gap ratio is more than 90%. Further, KA incidence can have prolonged and severe economic consequences for the household economy due to the mechanisms of informal sector financing to which households resort. A heavy burden of loan repayments can lead households on a downward spiral that eventually becomes a poverty trap. In other words, the method of financing health care payments is an important ingredient in understanding the economic burden of disease.

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

Clinical experimental stress studies: methods and assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Bali, Anjana; Jaggi, Amteshwar Singh

2015-01-01

Stress is a state of threatened homeostasis during which a variety of adaptive processes are activated to produce physiological and behavioral changes. Stress induction methods are pivotal for understanding these physiological or pathophysiological changes in the body in response to stress. Furthermore, these methods are also important for the development of novel pharmacological agents for stress management. The well-described methods to induce stress in humans include the cold pressor test, Trier Social Stress Test, Montreal Imaging Stress Task, Maastricht Acute Stress Test, CO2 challenge test, Stroop test, Paced Auditory Serial Addition Task, noise stress, and Mannheim Multicomponent Stress Test. Stress assessment in humans is done by measuring biochemical markers such as cortisol, cortisol awakening response, dexamethasone suppression test, salivary α-amylase, plasma/urinary norepinephrine, norepinephrine spillover rate, and interleukins. Physiological and behavioral changes such as galvanic skin response, heart rate variability, pupil size, and muscle and/or skin sympathetic nerve activity (microneurography) and cardiovascular parameters such as heart rate, blood pressure, and self-reported anxiety are also monitored to assess stress response. This present review describes these commonly employed methods to induce stress in humans along with stress assessment methods.

New method for assessing risks of email

Science.gov (United States)

Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

2013-03-01

E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

Resource consequences of reenrichment versus blending

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owen, P.S.

1981-01-01

Many recent studies, including INFCE and NASAP, have concluded that recycling thermal reactor fuel reduces natural uranium requirements. These studies are based on a common set of assumptions concerning the method of recycling uranium, and consequently have produced quite similar results. It was assumed, however, that the residual uranium would be reenriched rather than blended with higher enriched uranium. This paper will examine several possible alternatives to reenriching residual uranium and discuss the consequences of each

Closed-form analytical solutions for assessing the consequences of sea-level rise on unconfined sloping island aquifers

Science.gov (United States)

Chesnaux, R.

2016-04-01

Closed-form analytical solutions for assessing the consequences of sea-level rise on fresh groundwater oceanic island lenses are provided for the cases of both strip and circular islands. Solutions are proposed for directly calculating the change in the thickness of the lens, the changes in volume and the changes in travel time of fresh groundwater within island aquifers. The solutions apply for homogenous aquifers recharged by surface infiltration and discharged by a down-gradient, fixed-head boundary. They also take into account the inland shift of the ocean due to land surface inundation, this shift being determined by the coastal slope of inland aquifers. The solutions are given for two simple island geometries: circular islands and strip islands. Base case examples are presented to illustrate, on one hand, the amplitude of the change of the fresh groundwater lens thickness and the volume depletion of the lens in oceanic island with sea-level rise, and on the other hand, the shortening of time required for groundwater to discharge into the ocean. These consequences can now be quantified and may help decision-makers to anticipate the effects of sea-level rise on fresh groundwater availability in oceanic island aquifers.

Consequences of dispersal of a radioactive source

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chester, R.O.; Chester, C.V.

1978-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the question of whether the risk and consequences of theft or sabotage of facilities or vehicles containing small quantities of SNM, source, and by-product materials are such that licensees should be required to adopt further measures to safeguard them. In the course of the study an assessment will be made of the potential consequences of malevolent use of the referenced materials. To provide, these will be compared with the corresponding characteristics of non-nuclear materials such as chemical or biological agents

The Chernobyl nuclear accident and its consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-01-01

An AAEC Task Group was set up shortly after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant to monitor and evaluate initial reports and to assess the implications for Australia. The Task Group issued a preliminary report on 9 May 1986. On 25-29 August 1986, the USSR released details of the accident and its consequences and further information has become available from the Nuclear Energy Agency of OECD and the World Health Organisation. The Task Group now presents a revised report summarising this information and commenting on the consequences from the Australian viewpoint

A risk standard based on societal cost with bounded consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worledge, D.H.

1982-01-01

A risk standard is proposed that relates the frequency of occurrence of single events to the consequences of the events. Maximum consequences and risk aversion are used to give the cumulative risk curve a shape similar to the results of a risk assessment and to bound the expectation of deaths. Societal costs in terms of deaths are used to fix the parameters of the model together with an approximate comparison with individual risks. The proposed standard is compared with some practical applications of risk assessment to nuclear reactor systems

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.; Hora, S.C.; Lui, C.H.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M.; Paesler-Sauer, J.; Helton, J.C.

1995-01-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project

What influences the choice of assessment methods in health technology assessments? Statistical analysis of international health technology assessments from 1989 to 2002.

Science.gov (United States)

Draborg, Eva; Andersen, Christian Kronborg

2006-01-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) has been used as input in decision making worldwide for more than 25 years. However, no uniform definition of HTA or agreement on assessment methods exists, leaving open the question of what influences the choice of assessment methods in HTAs. The objective of this study is to analyze statistically a possible relationship between methods of assessment used in practical HTAs, type of assessed technology, type of assessors, and year of publication. A sample of 433 HTAs published by eleven leading institutions or agencies in nine countries was reviewed and analyzed by multiple logistic regression. The study shows that outsourcing of HTA reports to external partners is associated with a higher likelihood of using assessment methods, such as meta-analysis, surveys, economic evaluations, and randomized controlled trials; and with a lower likelihood of using assessment methods, such as literature reviews and "other methods". The year of publication was statistically related to the inclusion of economic evaluations and shows a decreasing likelihood during the year span. The type of assessed technology was related to economic evaluations with a decreasing likelihood, to surveys, and to "other methods" with a decreasing likelihood when pharmaceuticals were the assessed type of technology. During the period from 1989 to 2002, no major developments in assessment methods used in practical HTAs were shown statistically in a sample of 433 HTAs worldwide. Outsourcing to external assessors has a statistically significant influence on choice of assessment methods.

Evaluation of replacement tritium facility (RTF) compliance with DOE safety goals using probabilistic consequence assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Kula, K.R.; East, J.M.; Moore, M.L.

1993-01-01

The Savannah River Site (SRS), operated by the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) for the US Department of Energy (DOE), is a major center for the processing of nuclear materials for national defense, deep-space exploration, and medical treatment applications in the United States. As an integral part of the DOE's effort to modernize facilities, implement improved handling and processing technology, and reduce operational risk to the general public and onsite workers, transition of tritium processing at SRS from the Consolidated Tritium Facility to the Replacement Tritium Facility (RTF) began in 1993. To ensure that operation of new DOE facilities such as RTF present minimum involuntary and voluntary risks to the neighboring public and workers, indices of risk have been established to serve as target levels or safety goals of performance for assessing nuclear safety. These goals are discussed from a historical perspective in the initial part of this paper. Secondly, methodologies to quantify risk indices are briefly described. Lastly, accident, abnormal event, and normal operation source terms from RTF are evaluated for consequence assessment purposes relative to the safety targets

An analytical method to assess the damage and predict the residual strength of a ship in a shoal grounding accident scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sun Bin

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a simplified analytical method used to predict the residual ultimate strength of a ship hull after a shoal grounding accident is proposed. Shoal grounding accidents always lead to severe denting, though not tearing, of the ship bottom structure, which may threaten the global hull girder resistance and result in even worse consequences, such as hull collapse. Here, the degree of damage of the bottom structure is predicted by a series of analytical methods based on the plastic-elastic deformation mechanism. The energy dissipation of a ship bottom structure is obtained from individual components to determine the sliding distance of the seabed obstruction. Then, a new approach to assess the residual strength of the damaged ship subjected to shoal grounding is proposed based on the improved Smith's method. This analytical method is verified by comparing the results of the proposed method and those generated by numerical simulation using the software ABAQUS. The proposed analytical method can be used to assess the safety of a ship with a double bottom during its design phase and predict the residual ultimate strength of a ship after a shoal grounding accident occurs.

Health and safety consequences of medical isotope processing at the Hanford Site 325 building

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nielsen, D. L.

1997-11-19

Potential activities associated with medical isotope processing at the Hanford Site 325 Building laboratory and hot cell facilities are evaluated to assess the health and safety consequences if these activities are to be implemented as part of a combined tritium and medical isotope production mission for the Fast Flux Text Facility (FFTF). The types of activities included in this analysis are unloading irradiated isotope production assemblies at the 325 Building, recovery and dissolution of the target materials, separation of the product isotopes as required, and preparation of the isotopes for shipment to commercial distributors who supply isotopes to the medical conunuriity. Possible consequences to members of the public and to workers from both radiological and non-radiological hazards are considered in this evaluation. Section 2 of this docinnent describes the assumptions and methods used for the health and safety consequences analysis, section 3 presents the results of the analysis, and section 4 summarizes the results and conclusions from the analysis.

Inventory of LCIA selection methods for assessing toxic releases. Methods and typology report part B

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Henrik Fred; Birkved, Morten; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

method(s) in Work package 8 (WP8) of the OMNIITOX project. The selection methods and the other CRS methods are described in detail, a set of evaluation criteria are developed and the methods are evaluated against these criteria. This report (Deliverable 11B (D11B)) gives the results from task 7.1d, 7.1e......This report describes an inventory of Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) selection methods for assessing toxic releases. It consists of an inventory of current selection methods and other Chemical Ranking and Scoring (CRS) methods assessed to be relevant for the development of (a) new selection...... and 7.1f of WP 7 for selection methods. The other part of D11 (D11A) is reported in another report and deals with characterisation methods. A selection method is a method for prioritising chemical emissions to be included in an LCIA characterisation of toxic releases, i.e. calculating indicator scores...

Assessment of medical communication skills by computer: assessment method and student experiences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hulsman, R. L.; Mollema, E. D.; Hoos, A. M.; de Haes, J. C. J. M.; Donnison-Speijer, J. D.

2004-01-01

BACKGROUND A computer-assisted assessment (CAA) program for communication skills designated ACT was developed using the objective structured video examination (OSVE) format. This method features assessment of cognitive scripts underlying communication behaviour, a broad range of communication

Assessment of professional engineering skills - define, monitor and assess

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Niclas; Andersson, Pernille Hammar

2012-01-01

, professional engineering skills need to be included in the syllabus of engineering courses and study programs, which in turn call for the implementation of learning objectives, teaching activities as well as methods for assessing the professional performance of the engineering students. The implicit...... life experience from industry and consequently, they might have limited knowledge about professional skills which of course delimits their ability to evaluate the students’ professional performance. The objective of this study is to design and test a method to assess professional skills...... in an engineering teaching context. A suggested approach, based on the three consecutive steps of Define – Monitor – Assess, was applied and tested in an engineering course in which the students and professional engineers from industry interacted in an extensive role play simulation. The students’ were actively...

Custom database development and biomarker discovery methods for MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry-based identification of high-consequence bacterial pathogens.

Science.gov (United States)

Tracz, Dobryan M; Tyler, Andrea D; Cunningham, Ian; Antonation, Kym S; Corbett, Cindi R

2017-03-01

A high-quality custom database of MALDI-TOF mass spectral profiles was developed with the goal of improving clinical diagnostic identification of high-consequence bacterial pathogens. A biomarker discovery method is presented for identifying and evaluating MALDI-TOF MS spectra to potentially differentiate biothreat bacteria from less-pathogenic near-neighbour species. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Safety assessment in plant layout design using indexing approach: implementing inherent safety perspective. Part 1 - guideword applicability and method description.

Science.gov (United States)

Tugnoli, Alessandro; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Cozzani, Valerio

2008-12-15

Layout planning plays a key role in the inherent safety performance of process plants since this design feature controls the possibility of accidental chain-events and the magnitude of possible consequences. A lack of suitable methods to promote the effective implementation of inherent safety in layout design calls for the development of new techniques and methods. In the present paper, a safety assessment approach suitable for layout design in the critical early phase is proposed. The concept of inherent safety is implemented within this safety assessment; the approach is based on an integrated assessment of inherent safety guideword applicability within the constraints typically present in layout design. Application of these guidewords is evaluated along with unit hazards and control devices to quantitatively map the safety performance of different layout options. Moreover, the economic aspects related to safety and inherent safety are evaluated by the method. Specific sub-indices are developed within the integrated safety assessment system to analyze and quantify the hazard related to domino effects. The proposed approach is quick in application, auditable and shares a common framework applicable in other phases of the design lifecycle (e.g. process design). The present work is divided in two parts: Part 1 (current paper) presents the application of inherent safety guidelines in layout design and the index method for safety assessment; Part 2 (accompanying paper) describes the domino hazard sub-index and demonstrates the proposed approach with a case study, thus evidencing the introduction of inherent safety features in layout design.

Biological methods used to assess surface water quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szczerbiñska Natalia

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In accordance with the guidelines of the Water Framework Directive 2000/60 (WFD, both ecological and chemical statuses determine the assessment of surface waters. The profile of ecological status is based on the analysis of various biological components, and physicochemical and hydromorphological indicators complement this assessment. The aim of this article is to present the biological methods used in the assessment of water status with a special focus on bioassay, as well as to provide a review of methods of monitoring water status. Biological test methods include both biomonitoring and bioanalytics. Water biomonitoring is used to assess and forecast the status of water. These studies aim to collect data on water pollution and forecast its impact. Biomonitoring uses organisms which are characterized by particular vulnerability to contaminants. Bioindicator organisms are algae, fungi, bacteria, larval invertebrates, cyanobacteria, macroinvertebrates, and fish. Bioanalytics is based on the receptors of contaminants that can be biologically active substances. In bioanalytics, biosensors such as viruses, bacteria, antibodies, enzymes, and biotests are used to assess degrees of pollution.

Combination of photogrammetric and geoelectric methods to assess 3d structures associated to natural hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Fargier, Yannick; Dore, Ludovic; Antoine, Raphael; Palma Lopes, Sérgio; Fauchard, Cyrille

2016-04-01

The extraction of subsurface materials is a key element for the economy of a nation. However, natural degradation of underground quarries is a major issue from an economic and public safety point of view. Consequently, the quarries stakeholders require relevant tools to define hazards associated to these structures. Safety assessment methods of underground quarries are recent and mainly based on rock physical properties. This kind of method leads to a certain homogeneity assumption of pillar internal properties that can cause an underestimation of the risk. Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI) is a widely used method that possesses two advantages to overcome this limitation. The first is to provide a qualitative understanding for the detection and monitoring of anomalies in the pillar body (e.g. faults). The second is to provide a quantitative description of the electrical resistivity distribution inside the pillar. This quantitative description can be interpreted with constitutive laws to help decision support (water content decreases the mechanical resistance of a chalk). However, conventional 2D and 3D Imaging techniques are usually applied to flat surface surveys or to surfaces with moderate topography. A 3D inversion of more complex media (case of the pillar) requires a full consideration of the geometry that was never taken into account before. The Photogrammetric technique presents a cost effective solution to obtain an accurate description of the external geometry of a complex media. However, this method has never been fully coupled with a geophysical method to enhance/improve the inversion process. Consequently we developed a complete procedure showing that photogrammetric and ERI tools can be efficiently combined to assess a complex 3D structure. This procedure includes in a first part a photogrammetric survey, a processing stage with an open source software and a post-processing stage finalizing a 3D surface model. The second part necessitates the

Approach to assess consequences of hypoxia disturbance events for benthic ecosystem functioning

Science.gov (United States)

Gogina, Mayya; Darr, Alexander; Zettler, Michael L.

2014-01-01

Our study challenges the functional approach for its usefulness in assessing the consequences of hypoxia disturbance events on macrofaunal communities in the south-western Baltic Sea. Time series for two decades of observations from two monitoring stations, one in the Fehmarnbelt (exposed to aperiodic hypoxia), and another in the Darss Rise (normoxic conditions) is used. Our results designate differences of functional structure of benthic fauna communities between sites based on biological traits that characterise species role in modifying the environment, behavioural strategies, morphology and life history, thus suggesting differences in functioning. Hypoxic years reveal sharp increase of the role of sedentary species, suspension filter feeders, epibenthic structures, globulose form, medium/large size of individuals, preponderance of species with long lifespan (caused for instance by remaining ocean quahog). The link of functional and species diversity to the stagnation periods is proposed for the Darss station that exhibit continuous changes and low temporal variability of traits distribution. Before the major inflow in 1993 the increased role of small size organisms, containing calcium carbonate, filter feeders and grazers, higher presence of semi-pelagic species is observed. The hypoxic events and water renewal processes impact the communities not only in respect to species composition but also functionally.

Statistical methods in personality assessment research.

Science.gov (United States)

Schinka, J A; LaLone, L; Broeckel, J A

1997-06-01

Emerging models of personality structure and advances in the measurement of personality and psychopathology suggest that research in personality and personality assessment has entered a stage of advanced development, in this article we examine whether researchers in these areas have taken advantage of new and evolving statistical procedures. We conducted a review of articles published in the Journal of Personality, Assessment during the past 5 years. Of the 449 articles that included some form of data analysis, 12.7% used only descriptive statistics, most employed only univariate statistics, and fewer than 10% used multivariate methods of data analysis. We discuss the cost of using limited statistical methods, the possible reasons for the apparent reluctance to employ advanced statistical procedures, and potential solutions to this technical shortcoming.

Assessment of active methods for removal of LEO debris

Science.gov (United States)

Hakima, Houman; Emami, M. Reza

2018-03-01

This paper investigates the applicability of five active methods for removal of large low Earth orbit debris. The removal methods, namely net, laser, electrodynamic tether, ion beam shepherd, and robotic arm, are selected based on a set of high-level space mission constraints. Mission level criteria are then utilized to assess the performance of each redirection method in light of the results obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation provides an insight into the removal time, performance robustness, and propellant mass criteria for the targeted debris range. The remaining attributes are quantified based on the models provided in the literature, which take into account several important parameters pertaining to each removal method. The means of assigning attributes to each assessment criterion is discussed in detail. A systematic comparison is performed using two different assessment schemes: Analytical Hierarchy Process and utility-based approach. A third assessment technique, namely the potential-loss analysis, is utilized to highlight the effect of risks in each removal methods.

Long-term consequences of postoperative cognitive dysfunction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steinmetz, Jacob; Christensen, Karl Bang; Lund, Thomas

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: Postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) is common in elderly patients after noncardiac surgery, but the consequences are unknown. The authors' aim was to determine the effects of POCD on long-term prognosis. METHODS: This was an observational study of Danish patients enrolled in two...... on survival, labor market attachment, and social transfer payments were obtained from administrative databases. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to compute relative risk estimates for mortality and disability, and the relative prevalence of time on social transfer payments was assessed......, and cancer). The risk of leaving the labor market prematurely because of disability or voluntary early retirement was higher among patients with 1-week POCD (hazard ratio, 2.26 [1.24-4.12]; P = 0.01). Patients with POCD at 1 week received social transfer payments for a longer proportion of observation time...

An Integrated Method of Supply Chains Vulnerability Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiaguo Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Supply chain vulnerability identification and evaluation are extremely important to mitigate the supply chain risk. We present an integrated method to assess the supply chain vulnerability. The potential failure mode of the supply chain vulnerability is analyzed through the SCOR model. Combining the fuzzy theory and the gray theory, the correlation degree of each vulnerability indicator can be calculated and the target improvements can be carried out. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we use Kendall’s tau coefficient to measure the effect of different methods. The result shows that the presented method has the highest consistency in the assessment compared with the other two methods.

The STIG : A new SDI assessment method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nushi, B.; Van Loenen, B.; Crompvoets, J.

2015-01-01

To stimulate the Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI) development effectively and efficiently, it is key to assess the progress and benefits of the SDI. Currently, several SDI assessment methods exist. However, these are still in an infant stage and none of these appear to meet the requirements of

The psychosocial consequences of spent fuel disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paavola, J.; Eraenen, L.

1999-03-01

In this report the potential psychosocial consequences of spent fuel disposal to inhabitants of a community are assessed on the basis of earlier research. In studying the situation, different interpretations and meanings given to nuclear power are considered. First, spent fuel disposal is studied as fear-arousing and consequently stressful situation. Psychosomatic effects of stress and coping strategies used by an individual are presented. Stress as a collective phenomenon and coping mechanisms available for a community are also assessed. Stress reactions caused by natural disasters and technological disasters are compared. Consequences of nuclear power plant accidents are reviewed, e.g. research done on the accident at Three Mile Island power plant. Reasons for the disorganising effect on a community caused by a technological disaster are compared to the altruistic community often seen after natural disasters. The potential reactions that a spent fuel disposal plant can arouse in inhabitants are evaluated. Both short-term and long-term reactions are evaluated as well as reactions under normal functioning, after an incident and as a consequence of an accident. Finally an evaluation of how the decision-making system and citizens' opportunity to influence the decision-making affect the experience of threat is expressed. As a conclusion we see that spent fuel disposal can arouse fear and stress in people. However, the level of the stress is probably low. The stress is at strongest at the time of the starting of the spent fuel disposal plant. With time people get used to the presence of the plant and the threat experienced gets smaller. (orig.)

Perceived positive and negative consequences after surviving cancer and their relation to quality of life.

Science.gov (United States)

Castellano-Tejedor, Carmina; Eiroa-Orosa, Francisco-José; Pérez-Campdepadrós, Marta; Capdevila, Lluís; Sánchez de Toledo, José; Blasco-Blasco, Tomás

2015-06-01

Surviving childhood cancer has multiple implications on both physical and psychological domains of the individual. However, its study and possible effects on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes of adolescent survivors has been understudied. The objective of this study was twofold; to assess positive and negative cancer-related consequences (psychosocial and physical) in a sample of adolescent cancer survivors and to explore their relationship with HRQoL outcomes. Forty-one participants answered two questions about positive and negative consequences in the aftermath of cancer and filled in the KIDSCREEN-52 self-reported version. Data were analysed using mixed methods approach. Overall, 87.8% of the studied sample identified positive consequences and 63.4% negative consequences in survivorship. Four positive categories and five negative categories with regard to cancer-related consequences were found. Changed perspectives in life narratives seem to be the positive consequence more related to HRQoL (physical well-being, mood & emotions, autonomy, social support & peers), followed by useful life experience (physical well-being, autonomy, social support & peers). Psychological impact was the most referred negative consequence with a significant detrimental effect on social support and peers HRQoL dimension. Even if the majority of survivors reported benefit finding in the aftermath of cancer, concomitant positive and negative consequences have been found. However, findings only reveal a significant relationship between positive narratives and HRQoL, and negative consequences do not seem to have a significant influence on overall HRQoL in survivorship. © 2015 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of methods used in European countries to assess buildings' condition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vilhena, A.; Costa Branco De Oliveira Pedro, J.A.; De Brito, J.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a comparative analysis of methods used in European countries to assess buildings’ condition. The following methods were compared: a Portuguese method to assess buildings condition, an English housing health and safety rating system, a French method to assess buildings that may be

Overview of the reactor safety study consequence model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wall, I.B.; Yaniv, S.S.; Blond, R.M.; McGrath, P.E.; Church, H.W.; Wayland, J.R.

1977-01-01

The Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) is a comprehensive assessment of the potential risk to the public from accidents in light water power reactors. The engineering analysis of the plants is described in detail in the Reactor Safety Study: it provides an estimate of the probability versus magnitude of the release of radioactive material. The consequence model, which is the subject of this paper, describes the progression of the postulated accident after the release of the radioactive material from the containment. A brief discussion of the manner in which the consequence calculations are performed is presented. The emphasis in the description is on the models and data that differ significantly from those previously used for these types of assessments. The results of the risk calculations for 100 light water power reactors are summarized

Methods of sperm vitality assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Moskovtsev, Sergey I; Librach, Clifford L

2013-01-01

Sperm vitality is a reflection of the proportion of live, membrane-intact spermatozoa determined by either dye exclusion or osmoregulatory capacity under hypo-osmotic conditions. In this chapter we address the two most common methods of sperm vitality assessment: eosin-nigrosin staining and the hypo-osmotic swelling test, both utilized in clinical Andrology laboratories.

Status of safety technology for radiological consequence assessment of postulated accidents in liquid metal fast breeder reactors, Canoga Park, California, 29 July--31 July 1975

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1975-07-01

State-of-the-art capabilities are examined for prediction and mitigation of radiological consequences of postulated LMFBR accidents. The following topics are treated: radioactive source terms, sodium reactions, aerosol behavior, radiological dose assessment, and engineered safeguards. (U.S.)

Comparison of MACCS users calculations for the international comparison exercise on probabilistic accident consequence assessment code, October 1989--June 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neymotin, L.

1994-04-01

Over the past several years, the OECD/NEA and CEC sponsored an international program intercomparing a group of six probabilistic consequence assessment (PCA) codes designed to simulate health and economic consequences of radioactive releases into atmosphere of radioactive materials following severe accidents at nuclear power plants (NPPs): ARANO (Finland), CONDOR (UK), COSYMA (CEC), LENA (Sweden), MACCS (USA), and OSCAAR (Japan). In parallel with this effort, two separate groups performed similar calculations using the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Results produced in the MACCS Users Group (Greece, Italy, Spain, and USA) calculations and their comparison are contained in the present report. Version 1.5.11.1 of the MACCS code was used for the calculations. Good agreement between the results produced in the four participating calculations has been reached, with the exception of the results related to the ingestion pathway dose predictions. The main reason for the scatter in those particular results is attributed to the lack of a straightforward implementation of the specifications for agricultural production and counter-measures criteria provided for the exercise. A significantly smaller scatter in predictions of other consequences was successfully explained by differences in meteorological files and weather sampling, grids, rain distance intervals, dispersion model options, and population distributions

Adult consequences of late adolescent alcohol consumption: a systematic review of cohort studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jim McCambridge

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although important to public policy, there have been no rigorous evidence syntheses of the long-term consequences of late adolescent drinking. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This systematic review summarises evidence from general population cohort studies of drinking between 15-19 years old and any subsequent outcomes aged 20 or greater, with at least 3 years of follow-up study. Fifty-four studies were included, of which 35 were assessed to be vulnerable to bias and/or confounding. The principal findings are: (1 There is consistent evidence that higher alcohol consumption in late adolescence continues into adulthood and is also associated with alcohol problems including dependence; (2 Although a number of studies suggest links to adult physical and mental health and social consequences, existing evidence is of insufficient quality to warrant causal inferences at this stage. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need for high quality long-term prospective cohort studies in order to better understand the public health burden that is consequent on late adolescent drinking, both in relation to adult drinking and more broadly. Reducing drinking during late adolescence is likely to be important for preventing long-term adverse consequences as well as protecting against more immediate harms. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

A study on graded approach for risk assessment of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoji, Tatsuro; Kohata, Yuuji; Takebe, Kazumi; Tamauchi, Yoshikazu; Hayashi, Kazuya; Kurosu, Katsuya

2005-01-01

In a reprocessing plant, radioactive materials exist in several chemical processes and storage facilities, therefore we should evaluate risks of many events with various types, scenarios, frequencies and consequences in order to assess total risk of the plant. In order to assess risks of many events efficiently and effectively, the 'Graded Approach' should be applied to the assessment method taking account of importance of the consequence, complexity of scenarios and necessitated uncertainty. Therefore, we have developed a simplified quantitative method, so-called the 'improved risk index method', based on the 'risk index method' recommended by US NRC as qualitative risk evaluation method for 'Integrated safety analysis (ISA)' of fuel cycle facilities, to enhance quantitability, consistency and traceability in evaluation. The results of the 'improved risk index method' well agree with the detailed PSA in spite of the simplification. We will use this method in combination with the detailed PSA method, and will use the results for risk-informed management/regulation of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant. (author)

Seismic assessment of a site using the time series method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krutzik, N.J.; Rotaru, I.; Bobei, M.; Mingiuc, C.; Serban, V.; Androne, M.

2001-01-01

1. To increase the safety of a NPP located on a seismic site, the seismic acceleration level to which the NPP should be qualified must be as representative as possible for that site, with a conservative degree of safety but not too exaggerated. 2. The consideration of the seismic events affecting the site as independent events and the use of statistic methods to define some safety levels with very low annual occurrence probabilities (10 -4 ) may lead to some exaggerations of the seismic safety level. 3. The use of some very high values for the seismic accelerations imposed by the seismic safety levels required by the hazard analysis may lead to very expensive technical solutions that can make the plant operation more difficult and increase the maintenance costs. 4. The consideration of seismic events as a time series with dependence among the events produced may lead to a more representative assessment of a NPP site seismic activity and consequently to a prognosis on the seismic level values to which the NPP would be ensured throughout its life-span. That prognosis should consider the actual seismic activity (including small earthquakes in real time) of the focuses that affect the plant site. The method is useful for two purposes: a) research, i.e. homogenizing the history data basis by the generation of earthquakes during periods lacking information and correlation of the information with the existing information. The aim is to perform the hazard analysis using a homogeneous data set in order to determine the seismic design data for a site; b) operation, i.e. the performance of a prognosis on the seismic activity on a certain site and consideration of preventive measures to minimize the possible effects of an earthquake. 5. The paper proposes the application of Autoregressive Time Series to issue a prognosis on the seismic activity of a focus and presents the analysis on Vrancea focus that affects Cernavoda NPP site by this method. 6. The paper also presents the

LNG Safety Assessment Evaluation Methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muna, Alice Baca [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); LaFleur, Angela Christine [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-05-01

Sandia National Laboratories evaluated published safety assessment methods across a variety of industries including Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), hydrogen, land and marine transportation, as well as the US Department of Defense (DOD). All the methods were evaluated for their potential applicability for use in the LNG railroad application. After reviewing the documents included in this report, as well as others not included because of repetition, the Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Safety Plan Checklist is most suitable to be adapted to the LNG railroad application. This report was developed to survey industries related to rail transportation for methodologies and tools that can be used by the FRA to review and evaluate safety assessments submitted by the railroad industry as a part of their implementation plans for liquefied or compressed natural gas storage ( on-board or tender) and engine fueling delivery systems. The main sections of this report provide an overview of various methods found during this survey. In most cases, the reference document is quoted directly. The final section provides discussion and a recommendation for the most appropriate methodology that will allow efficient and consistent evaluations to be made. The DOE Hydrogen Safety Plan Checklist was then revised to adapt it as a methodology for the Federal Railroad Administration’s use in evaluating safety plans submitted by the railroad industry.

Minimal Residual Disease Assessment in Lymphoma: Methods and Applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, Alex F; Armand, Philippe

2017-12-01

Standard methods for disease response assessment in patients with lymphoma, including positron emission tomography and computed tomography scans, are imperfect. In other hematologic malignancies, particularly leukemias, the ability to detect minimal residual disease (MRD) is increasingly influencing treatment paradigms. However, in many subtypes of lymphoma, the application of MRD assessment techniques, like flow cytometry or polymerase chain reaction-based methods, has been challenging because of the absence of readily detected circulating disease or canonic chromosomal translocations. Newer MRD detection methods that use next-generation sequencing have yielded promising results in a number of lymphoma subtypes, fueling the hope that MRD detection may soon be applicable in clinical practice for most patients with lymphoma. MRD assessment can provide real-time information about tumor burden and response to therapy, noninvasive genomic profiling, and monitoring of clonal dynamics, allowing for many possible applications that could significantly affect the care of patients with lymphoma. Further validation of MRD assessment methods, including the incorporation of MRD assessment into clinical trials in patients with lymphoma, will be critical to determine how best to deploy MRD testing in routine practice and whether MRD assessment can ultimately bring us closer to the goal of personalized lymphoma care. In this review article, we describe the methods available for detecting MRD in patients with lymphoma and their relative advantages and disadvantages. We discuss preliminary results supporting the potential applications for MRD testing in the care of patients with lymphoma and strategies for including MRD assessment in lymphoma clinical trials.

Suggestions on the Development of Safety Culture Assessment Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Young Sung; Choi, Kwang Sik; Kim, Woong Sik

2006-01-01

Several efforts have been made to assess safety culture of organization that operates nuclear power plants in Korea. The MOST and KINS played a major role to develop assessment methods and KHNP applied them to its NPPs. This paper explains the two methods developed by KINS briefly and presents the insights obtained from the two different applications. It concludes with some suggestions for safety culture assessment based on the insights

Record-keeping as an Alternative Method οf Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Androniki Kouvdou

2010-02-01

Full Text Available The basic topic of this chapter is the description of an alternative method of assessment which supplements traditional objective techniques (i.e. testing, while counterbalancing their limitations. This alternative method, known as ‘record-keeping’, involves the systematic collection and recording of information about learner progress and aims at providing a more complete and valid formative assessment of their developmental abilities in specified areas. More particularly, this chapter presents a small-scale case study, which was carried out in the sixth grade of a primary school and lasted three months. The subjects of this case study were four twelve-year-old learners and its purpose was to investigate the potential of ‘record-keeping’ as an alternative method of assessing oracy skills in the foreign language. The data that derived from the case study reinforce the usefulness and validity of the particular method of assessment. The goals of the experimental assessment design, which entailed the recording and gradual development of learner oracy skills as well as the enhancement of motivation and awareness of their relevant sub-skills, were accomplished to a considerable degree. Additionally, the learners responded positively to the implemented assessment project, while being actively involved in it, which further substantiates its effectiveness. Alternative assessment, however, is a large area, whose full potential of implementation calls for further investigation.

[Methods and Applications of Psychological Stress State Assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xin; Yang, Yadan; Hou, Yongjie; Chen, Zetao

2015-08-01

In this paper, the response of individual's physiological system under psychological stress state is discussed, and the theoretical support for psychological stress assessment research is provided. The two methods, i.e., the psychological stress assessment of questionnaire and physiological parameter assessment used for current psychological stress assessment are summarized. Then, the future trend of development of psychological stress assessment research is pointed out. We hope that this work could do and provide further support and help to psychological stress assessment studies.

The usefulness of time-dependent reactor accident consequence modelling for emergency response planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paretzke, H.G.; Jacob, P.; Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.

1989-01-01

After major releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere fast reaction of authorities will be necessary to inform the public of potential consequences and to consider and optimize mitigating actions. These activities require availability of well designed computer models, adequate and fast measurements and prior training of responsible persons. The quantitative assessment models should be capable of taking into account of actual atmospheric dispersion conditions, actual deposition situation (dry, rain, snow, fog), seasonal status of the agriculture, food processing and distribution pathways, etc. In this paper the usefulness of such models will be discussed, their limitations, the relative importance of exposure pathways and a selection of important methods to decrease the activity in food products after an accident. Real-time reactor accident consequence models should be considered as a condition sine qua non for responsible use of nuclear power for electricity production

Radiation safety assessment of treatment teletherapy linear accelerators using the method of the risk matrix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumenigo Gonzalez, Cruz; Vilaragut Llanes, Juan J.; Morales Lopez, Jorge L.

2009-01-01

Accidents in the world of radiation, demonstrating the need for deepen security assessments. This study evaluates the safety of the treatment of teletherapy linear accelerator (LINAC) at a hospital in Cuba, based on applying the method Risk Matrix. This method has been used for many years in conventional industry, is simple, easy to apply and is based on the equation General risk R = f * P * C (where: f frequency of occurrence of the initiating event, P probability of failure of all barriers and magnitude of the consequences C expected). We have evaluated 140 accident sequences that were identified during the analysis of the treatment process. It was identified that 5 sequences are associated with the level of risk is very low, 96 low-risk, high risk and 39 with no very high risk. All accident sequences associated with high risk (considered unacceptable), have an impact on patients, and no concerns workers and public, which reaffirms that major security problems are related to radiation protection of patients. 34 sequences accidental high risk are associated with human errors and failures only 5 to equipment (LINAC, TPS, TAC, etc.). demonstrating the importance of human error. It shows that 35 of the 39 high-risk accident sequences leading to serious or very serious consequences for patients, which would mean the death of one or more patients, making specific recommendations to reduce risk in these cases. The findings of this work and regulators allow users to refine their programs quality assurance and inspection and suggest the hospital management, prioritize material resources according to criteria of irrigation management. (author)

Life cycle assessment in wastewater treatment: : Influence of site-oriented normalization factors, life cycle impact assessment methods, and weighting methods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bai, Shunwen; Wang, Xiuheng; Zhang, X.; Zhao, Xinyue; Ren, N

2017-01-01

This present study aims to analyze the differences in results of different site-directional life cycle assessment
(LCA) methods applied in the field of wastewater treatment. Site-generic methods were employed and
compared with China-specific methods on a full-scale wastewater treatment case.

A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

2004-08-01

This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

Assessing the Consequences of Microbial Infection in Field Trials: Seen, Unseen, Beneficial, Parasitic and Pathogenic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark E. Looseley

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Microbial infections of crop plants present an ongoing threat to agricultural production. However, in recent years, we have developed a more nuanced understanding of the ecological role of microbes and how they interact with plants. This includes an appreciation of the influence of crop physiology and environmental conditions on the expression of disease symptoms, the importance of non-pathogenic microbes on host plants and pathogens, and the capacity for plants to act as hosts for human pathogens. Alongside this we now have a variety of tools available for the identification and quantification of microbial infections on crops grown under field conditions. This review summarises some of the consequences of microbial infections in crop plants, and discusses how new and established assessment tools can be used to understand these processes. It challenges our current assumptions in yield loss relationships and offers understanding of the potential for more resilient crops.

Initiatives and Challenges in Consequence Management after a WMD Attack

Science.gov (United States)

2004-08-01

Challenges in Consequence Management people to seek shelter or other protection when possible, to avoid exposure to weapons of mass destruction effects . The...Potential Effects .........................................9 V. Methods for Managing the Consequences of WMD Use.................14 VI. Toward a...mass destruction (WMD). Consequence management1 is a process to mitigate the effects of the use of weapons of mass destruction, including

Intentions to Prevent Weight Gain in Older and Younger Adults; The Importance of Perceived Health and Appearance Consequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca J. Beeken

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Objectives: This study investigates whether health and appearance consequences predict intentions to prevent weight gain and whether these relationships differ in younger versus older adults and in men versus women. Methods: UK adults aged 18-26 years (younger adults; n = 584 or >45 years (older adults; n = 107 participated in an online survey. Logistic regression assessed associations between intentions to avoid gaining weight and age, gender as well as perceived negative consequences of weight gain for health and appearance. Co-variates were ethnicity, education, weight perception and perceived weight gain vulnerability. Interactions between age, gender and perceived health and appearance consequences of weight gain were also tested. Results: Perceived negative appearance consequences of weight gain predicted weight gain prevention intentions (OR = 9.3, p 0.01. Conclusion: Concerns about feeling unattractive predict intentions to prevent weight gain. However, health consequences of weight gain are only important motivators for older adults. Future research should identify ways to shift the focus of young people from appearance concerns towards the health benefits of maintaining a healthy weight.

Evaluation of primary coolant leaks and assessment of detection methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassette, P.; Giroux, C.; Roche, H.; Seveon, J.J.

1986-01-01

A review of the French PWR situation concerning primary coolant leaks is presented, including a description of operating technical specifications, of the collecting system of primary coolant leakage into the containment and of the detection methods. It is mainly based on a compilation over three years, 1981 to 1983, of almost all actual leaks, their natures, causes, consequences and methods used for their detection. By analysing these data it is possible to evaluate the efficiency of the primary coolant leak detection system and the problems raised by compliance with the criteria defined in the operating technical specifications

Evaluation of primary coolant leaks and assessment of detection methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassette, P.; Giroux, C.; Roche, H.; Seveon, J.J.

1984-11-01

A review of French PWR situation concerning primary coolant leaks is presented, including a description of operating technical specifications, of the collecting system of primary coolant leakage into the containment and of the detection methods. It is mainly based on a compilation over three years, 1981 to 1983, of almost all occurred leaks, their natures, causes, consequences and methods used for their detection. By analysing these data it is possible to evaluate the efficiency of the primary coolant leak detection system and the problems raised by the compliance with the criteria defined in the operating technical specifications

12 CFR 327.9 - Assessment risk categories and pricing methods.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Assessment risk categories and pricing methods... OF GENERAL POLICY ASSESSMENTS In General § 327.9 Assessment risk categories and pricing methods. (a... and a weighted average of CAMELS component ratings will be multiplied by a corresponding pricing...

Human exposure to radiation following the release of radioactivity from a reactor accident: a quantitative assessment of the biological consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, H.; Stather, J.W.

1976-11-01

The objective of this review is to provide a biological basis upon which to assess the consequences of the exposure of a population to radioactivity released after a reactor accident. Depending upon the radiation dose, both early and late somatic damage could occur in the exposed population and hereditary effects may occur in their descendants. The development of dose-effect relationships has been based upon the limited amount of information available on humans, supplemented by data obtained from experiments on animals. (author)

Approaches and methods of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowe, W.D.

1983-01-01

The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

Formal Method of Description Supporting Portfolio Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Morimoto, Yasuhiko; Ueno, Maomi; Kikukawa, Isao; Yokoyama, Setsuo; Miyadera, Youzou

2006-01-01

Teachers need to assess learner portfolios in the field of education. However, they need support in the process of designing and practicing what kind of portfolios are to be assessed. To solve the problem, a formal method of describing the relations between the lesson forms and portfolios that need to be collected and the relations between…

External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Powell, Troy C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-08-01

Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind of r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.

Analytical resource assessment method for continuous (unconventional) oil and gas accumulations - The "ACCESS" Method

Science.gov (United States)

Crovelli, Robert A.; revised by Charpentier, Ronald R.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically assesses petroleum resources of areas within the United States and the world. The purpose of this report is to explain the development of an analytic probabilistic method and spreadsheet software system called Analytic Cell-Based Continuous Energy Spreadsheet System (ACCESS). The ACCESS method is based upon mathematical equations derived from probability theory. The ACCESS spreadsheet can be used to calculate estimates of the undeveloped oil, gas, and NGL (natural gas liquids) resources in a continuous-type assessment unit. An assessment unit is a mappable volume of rock in a total petroleum system. In this report, the geologic assessment model is defined first, the analytic probabilistic method is described second, and the spreadsheet ACCESS is described third. In this revised version of Open-File Report 00-044 , the text has been updated to reflect modifications that were made to the ACCESS program. Two versions of the program are added as appendixes.

Accident assessment under emergency situation in Daya Bay nuclear power station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Ling; Chen Degan; Lin Shumou; Fu Guohui

2004-01-01

The accident assessment under emergency situation includes the accident status evaluation and its consequence estimation. This paper introduces evaluation methods for accident status and its assistant computer system (SESAME-GNP) utilized during the emergency situation in Guangdong Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station (GNPS) in detail. At the same time, an improved accident consequence estimation system in GNPS (RACAS-GNP) is briefly described. With the improvement of the accident assessment systems, the capability of emergency response in GNPS is strengthened

Model review and evaluation for application in DOE safety basis documentation of chemical accidents - modeling guidance for atmospheric dispersion and consequence assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lazaro, M. A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Woodarad, K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Hanna, S. R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Hesse, D. J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Huang, J. -C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Lewis, J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mazzola, C. A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

1997-09-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), through its Defense Programs (DP), Office of Engineering and Operations Suppon, established the Accident Phenomenology and Consequence (AP AC) Methodology Evaluation Program to identify and evaluate methodologies and computer codes to support accident phenomenological and consequence calculations for both radiological and nonradiological materials at DOE facilities and to identify development needs. The program is also intended to define and recommend "best or good engineering/safety analysis practices" to be followed in preparing ''design or beyond design basis" assessments to be included in DOE nuclear and nonnuclear facility safety documents. The AP AC effort is intended to provide scientifically sound and more consistent analytical approaches, by identifying model selection procedures and application methodologies, in order to enhance safety analysis activities throughout the DOE complex.

A combined emitter threat assessment method based on ICW-RCM

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ying; Wang, Hongwei; Guo, Xiaotao; Wang, Yubing

2017-08-01

Considering that the tradition al emitter threat assessment methods are difficult to intuitively reflect the degree of target threaten and the deficiency of real-time and complexity, on the basis of radar chart method(RCM), an algorithm of emitter combined threat assessment based on ICW-RCM (improved combination weighting method, ICW) is proposed. The coarse sorting is integrated with fine sorting in emitter combined threat assessment, sequencing the emitter threat level roughly accordance to radar operation mode, and reducing task priority of the low-threat emitter; On the basis of ICW-RCM, sequencing the same radar operation mode emitter roughly, finally, obtain the results of emitter threat assessment through coarse and fine sorting. Simulation analyses show the correctness and effectiveness of this algorithm. Comparing with classical method of emitter threat assessment based on CW-RCM, the algorithm is visual in image and can work quickly with lower complexity.

Social Causes and Consequences of Rejection Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

London, Bonita; Downey, Geraldine; Bonica, Cheryl; Paltin, Iris

2007-01-01

Predictions from the Rejection Sensitivity (RS) model concerning the social causes and consequences of RS were examined in a longitudinal study of 150 middle school students. Peer nominations of rejection, self-report measures of anxious and angry rejection expectations, and social anxiety, social withdrawal, and loneliness were assessed at two…

Tank waste compositions and atmospheric dispersion coefficients for use in accelerated safety analysis consequence assessments. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savino, A.V.

1995-11-01

This topical report contains technical support information used to determine accident consequences for the Tank Farms Accelerated Safety Analysis (ASA) Interim Chapter 3, Hazard and Accident Analysis: Potential for Releases and Required Mitigation and Prevention and the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) environmental impact statement (EIS) accident consequence report. It does not determine accident consequences or describe specific accident scenarios, but instead provides generic information used to calculate radiological and toxic chemical consequences for postulated tank farms accident releases

Using slides to test for changes in crown defoliation assessment methods. Part I: Visual assessment of slides.

Science.gov (United States)

Dobbertin, Matthias; Hug, Christian; Mizoue, Nobuya

2004-11-01

In this study we used photographs of tree crowns to test whether the assessment methods for tree defoliation in Switzerland have changed over time. We randomly selected 24 series of slides of Norway spruce with field assessments made between 1986 and 1995. The slides were randomly arranged and assessed by three experts without prior knowledge of the year when the slide was taken or the tree number. Defoliation was assessed using the Swiss reference photo guide. Although the correlations between the field assessments and slide assessments were high (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient ranged between 0.79 and 0.83), we found significant differences between field and slide assessments (4.3 to 9% underprediction by the slide assessors) and between the slide assessments. However, no significant trends in field assessment methods could be detected. When the mean differences between field and slide assessments were subtracted, in some years, field assessors consistently underpredicted (1990, 1992) or overpredicted defoliation (1987, 1991). Defoliation tended to be overpredicted in slides taken against the light, and underpredicted for trees with more than 25% crown overlap. We conclude that slide series can be used to detect changes in assessment methods. However, potential observer bias calls for more objective methods of assessment.

Real-time Color Codes for Assessing Learning Process

OpenAIRE

Dzelzkalēja, L; Kapenieks, J

2016-01-01

Effective assessment is an important way for improving the learning process. There are existing guidelines for assessing the learning process, but they lack holistic digital knowledge society considerations. In this paper the authors propose a method for real-time evaluation of students’ learning process and, consequently, for quality evaluation of teaching materials both in the classroom and in the distance learning environment. The main idea of the proposed Color code method (CCM) is to use...

The relationship between trait self-control, consideration for future consequence and organizational citizenship behavior among Chinese employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yu-Jie; Dou, Kai; Tang, Zhi-Wen

2017-01-01

Organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) is important to the development of an organization. Research into factors that foster OCB and the underlying processes are therefore substantially crucial. The current study aimed to test the association between trait self-control and OCB and the mediating role of consideration for future consequence. Four hundred and ninety-four Chinese employees (275 men, 219 women) took part in the study. Participants completed a battery of self-report measures online that assessed trait self-control, tendencies of consideration of future consequence, and organizational citizenship behavior. Path analysis was conducted and bootstrapping technique (N = 5000), a resampling method that is asymptotically more accurate than the standard intervals using sample variance and assumptions of normality, was used to judge the significance of the mediation. Results of path analysis showed that trait self-control was positively related to OCB. More importantly, the "trait self-control-OCB" link was mediated by consideration of future consequence-future, but not by consideration of future consequence-immediate. Employees with high trait self-control engage in more organizational citizenship behavior and this link can be partly explained by consideration of future consequence-future.

Perceived racism and alcohol consequences among African American and Caucasian college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Grekin, Emily R

2012-12-01

Few studies have assessed relationships between perceived racism, racism-related stress, and alcohol problems. The current study examined these relationships within the context of tension reduction models of alcohol consumption. Participants were 94 African American and 189 Caucasian college freshmen who completed an online survey assessing perceived racism, alcohol consequences, alcohol consumption, negative affect, and deviant behavior. Hierarchical multiple regressions indicated that racism-related stress predicted alcohol consequences for both African American and Caucasian college students, even after controlling for alcohol consumption, negative affect, and behavioral deviance. The frequency of racist events predicted alcohol consequences for Caucasian but not African American students. These findings highlight the need to address racism and racism-related stress in college-based alcohol prevention and intervention efforts. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Technology assessment of solar energy utilization

Science.gov (United States)

Jaeger, F.

1985-11-01

The general objectives and methods of Technology Assessment (TA) are outlined. Typical analysis steps of a TA for solar energy are reviewed: description of the technology and its further development; identification of impact areas; analysis of boundary conditions and definition of scenarios; market penetration of solar technologies; projection of consequences in areas of impact; and assessment of impacts and identification of options for action.

Tackling the Relevance of Packaging in Life Cycle Assessment of Virgin Olive Oil and the Environmental Consequences of Regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro, Alejandra; Puig, Rita; Martí, Elena; Bala, Alba; Fullana-I-Palmer, Pere

2018-04-12

Production and consumption of olive oil is very important in Europe, being this product a basic element in the Mediterranean diet since long ago. The project objective is two-fold: a study of the contribution of virgin olive oils (VOOs) usual packaging to the whole life cycle of the product and a study of the environmental consequences of the Spanish Government regulation on VOO packaging. A life cycle assessment (LCA) according to ISO 14044 has been performed using the CML methodology for the impact assessment. The results show that the packaging influence varies from 2 to 300%, depending on the impact category and type of packaging (glass, tin or polyethylene terephtalate). Glass, which is related to higher quality perception by consumers, was found to be the most influencing material (due to its weight); however, this impact may be fairly reduced by applying ecodesign strategies (such as weight reduction and recycled-glass percentage increase). A new Spanish regulation on the mandatory use of non-refillable oilers in HORECA establishments (hotels, restaurants and caterings) aims to provide more quality assurance and better information to consumers; however, it was also found to mean a 74% increase in greenhouse gases emissions. This regulation was deeply discussed at European level and its application was withdraw due to consumers rejection, except for Spain. The findings of the present case study show that LCA and ecodesign should be important tools to be promoted and applied in policy making to reduce non-desirable consequences of regulation.

Out-of-pocket cost of drug abuse consequences: results from Iranian National Mental Health Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Amin-Esmaeili, Masoumeh; Hefazi, Mitra; Radgoodarzi, Reza; Motevalian, Abbas; Sharifi, Vandad; Hajebi, Ahmad; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin

2017-05-01

Drug abuse has significant cost to the individual, the family and the society. This study aimed to assess out of-pocket costs of consequences of drug use disorder. Data were drawn from the Iranian Mental Health Survey (IranMHS) through face-to-face interviews with 7841 respondents aged 15-64 years. We used a bottom-up cost-ofillness method for economic analysis. Out-of-pocket costs for treatment of mental and drug problems, treatment of medical illnesses, as well as costs of crimes were assessed. The average of total annual expense was US$ 2120.6 for those with drug use disorder, which was 23.5% of annual income of an average Iranian family in the year 2011. The average of total out-of-pocket cost was US$ 674.6 for those with other mental disorder and US$ 421.9 for those with no mental disorder. Catastrophic payment was reported in 47.6% of the patients with drug use disorder and 14.4% of those with other mental disorder. Thus, considerable amount of family resources are spent on the consequences of drug use.

Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunyazova A.O.

2018-04-01

Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

Consequence Prioritization Process for Potential High Consequence Events (HCE)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freeman, Sarah G. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-10-31

This document describes the process for Consequence Prioritization, the first phase of the Consequence-Driven Cyber-Informed Engineering (CCE) framework. The primary goal of Consequence Prioritization is to identify potential disruptive events that would significantly inhibit an organization’s ability to provide the critical services and functions deemed fundamental to their business mission. These disruptive events, defined as High Consequence Events (HCE), include both events that have occurred or could be realized through an attack of critical infrastructure owner assets. While other efforts have been initiated to identify and mitigate disruptive events at the national security level, such as Presidential Policy Directive 41 (PPD-41), this process is intended to be used by individual organizations to evaluate events that fall below the threshold for a national security. Described another way, Consequence Prioritization considers threats greater than those addressable by standard cyber-hygiene and includes the consideration of events that go beyond a traditional continuity of operations (COOP) perspective. Finally, Consequence Prioritization is most successful when organizations adopt a multi-disciplinary approach, engaging both cyber security and engineering expertise, as in-depth engineering perspectives are required to recognize and characterize and mitigate HCEs. Figure 1 provides a high-level overview of the prioritization process.

Continuous spatial modelling to analyse planning and economic consequences of offshore wind energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, Bernd

2011-01-01

Offshore wind resources appear abundant, but technological, economic and planning issues significantly reduce the theoretical potential. While massive investments are anticipated and planners and developers are scouting for viable locations and consider risk and impact, few studies simultaneously address potentials and costs together with the consequences of proposed planning in an analytical and continuous manner and for larger areas at once. Consequences may be investments short of efficiency and equity, and failed planning routines. A spatial resource economic model for the Danish offshore waters is presented, used to analyse area constraints, technological risks, priorities for development and opportunity costs of maintaining competing area uses. The SCREAM-offshore wind model (Spatially Continuous Resource Economic Analysis Model) uses raster-based geographical information systems (GIS) and considers numerous geographical factors, technology and cost data as well as planning information. Novel elements are weighted visibility analysis and geographically recorded shipping movements as variable constraints. A number of scenarios have been described, which include restrictions of using offshore areas, as well as alternative uses such as conservation and tourism. The results comprise maps, tables and cost-supply curves for further resource economic assessment and policy analysis. A discussion of parameter variations exposes uncertainties of technology development, environmental protection as well as competing area uses and illustrates how such models might assist in ameliorating public planning, while procuring decision bases for the political process. The method can be adapted to different research questions, and is largely applicable in other parts of the world. - Research Highlights: → A model for the spatially continuous evaluation of offshore wind resources. → Assessment of spatial constraints, costs and resources for each location. → Planning tool for

Methods of Comprehensive Assessment for China’s Energy Sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zhijin; Song, Yankui

2018-02-01

In order to assess the sustainable development of China’s energy objectively and accurately, we need to establish a reasonable indicator system for energy sustainability and make a targeted comprehensive assessment with the scientific methods. This paper constructs a comprehensive indicator system for energy sustainability from five aspects of economy, society, environment, energy resources and energy technology based on the theory of sustainable development and the theory of symbiosis. On this basis, it establishes and discusses the assessment models and the general assessment methods for energy sustainability with the help of fuzzy mathematics. It is of some reference for promoting the sustainable development of China’s energy, economy and society.

Risk and dose assessment methods in gamma knife QA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banks, W.W.; Jones, E.D.; Rathbun, P.

1992-10-01

Traditional methods used in assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing medical radiation risks. The typical philosophy used in assessing nuclear reactor risks is machine dominated with only secondary attention paid to the human component, and only after critical machine failure events have been identified. In assessing the risk of a misadministrative radiation dose to patients, the primary source of failures seems to stem overwhelmingly, from the actions of people and only secondarily from machine mode failures. In essence, certain medical misadministrations are dominated by human events not machine failures. Radiological medical devices such as the Leksell Gamma Knife are very simple in design, have few moving parts, and are relatively free from the risks of wear when compared with a nuclear power plant. Since there are major technical differences between a gamma knife and a nuclear power plant, one must select a particular risk assessment method which is sensitive to these system differences and tailored to the unique medical aspects of the phenomena under study. These differences also generate major shifts in the philosophy and assumptions which drive the risk assessment (Machine-centered vs Person-centered) method. We were prompted by these basic differences to develop a person-centered approach to risk assessment which would reflect these basic philosophical and technological differences, have the necessary resolution in its metrics, and be highly reliable (repeatable). The risk approach chosen by the Livermore investigative team has been called the ''Relative Risk Profile Method'' and has been described in detail by Banks and Paramore, (1983)

Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the short- and long-term consequences of opting out of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briem, G.; Halstrick, M.; Heilemann, U.; Hillebrand, B.; Kiy, M.; Neuhaus, R.; Knieper, O.; Schmidt, H.W.; Weiss, T.

1986-08-01

A reference scenario establishes the prospective development of the energy and overall economy under status-quo conditions, i.e. assuming especially the continued use of nuclear energy, while two scenarios (alternative I: 'immediate opting out' and alternative II: 'opting out in the long term') try to assess the consequences of a shutdown of nuclear energy for the economic development of the Federal Republic of Germany. Especially, the study deals with the effects on the power industry, the ecological consequences, and the overall economic effects both in the short and long run. In all three scenarios, the development of the home consumption of electric power is first of all determined by a structure model of the entire economy. The capacity required to meet that demand and its use are calculated with the aid of a power plant model; short- and long-term cost-minimization programmes making allowance especially for fuel and capital costs from the elements from which these quantities are derived. Fuel and capital costs operate as variables in the structure model to determine the sectoral and overall economic development. The report in addition investigates separately, in partial models, the effects on the chemical industry and the branches of industry processing iron, steel, and non-ferrous metals, all of which are greatly in demand of electric power. (orig./UA) [de

Analysis of the most widely used Building Environmental Assessment methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gu, Zhenhong; Wennersten, R.; Assefa, G.

2006-01-01

Building Environmental Assessment (BEA) is a term used for several methods for environmental assessment of the building environment. Generally, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an important foundation and part of the BEA method, but current BEA methods form more comprehensive tools than LCA. Indicators and weight assignments are the two most important factors characterizing BEA. From the comparison of the three most widely used BEA methods, EcoHomes (BREEAM for residential buildings), LEED-NC and GBTool, it can be seen that BEA methods are shifting from ecological, indicator-based scientific systems to more integrated systems covering ecological, social and economic categories. Being relatively new methods, current BEA systems are far from perfect and are under continuous development. The further development of BEA methods will focus more on non-ecological indicators and how to promote implementation. Most BEA methods are developed based on regional regulations and LCA methods, but they do not attempt to replace these regulations. On the contrary, they try to extend implementation by incentive programmes. There are several ways to enhance BEA in the future: expand the studied scope from design levels to whole life-cycle levels of constructions, enhance international cooperation, accelerate legislation and standardize and develop user-oriented assessment systems

Application of geosites assessment method in geopark context

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Simon; Perret, Amandine; Renau, Pierre; Cartier-Moulin, Olivier; Regolini-Bissig, Géraldine

2014-05-01

The regional natural park of the Monts d'Ardèche (Ardèche and Haute-Loire departments, France) is candidate to the European Geopark Network (EGN) in 2014. The area has a wide geodiversity - with rocks from Cambrian to Pleistocene (basalt flows) - and interesting features like phonolitic protrusions, maars and granite boulders fields. Around 115 sites were selected and documented through a geosites inventory carried out in the territory. This pre-selection was supervised by the Ardèche Geological Society and is therefore expert advice based. In the context of EGN candidature, these potential geosites were assessed with a simplified method. It follows the spirit of the method from the University of Lausanne (Reynard et al., 2007) and its recent developments: assessment of the scientific (central) value and of a set of additional values (ecological and cultural). As this assessment aimed to offer a management tool to the future geopark's authorities, a special focus was given to management aspects. In particular, the opportunities to use the site for education (from schools to universities) and for tourism as well as the existence of protection and of interpretive facilities were documented and assessed. Several interesting conclusions may be drawn from this case study: (1) expert assessment is effective when it is based on a pre-existing inventory which is well structured and documented; (2) even simplified, an assessment method is a very useful framework to expert assessment as it focuses the discussions on most important points and helps to balance the assessment; (3) whereas the inventory can be extensively detailed and partly academic, the assessment in the geopark context is objective-driven in order to answer management needs. The place of the geosites assessment among the three key players of a geopark construction process (i.e. territory's managers, local geoscientists and EGN) is also discussed. This place can be defined as the point of consensus of needs

Reporting methods of blinding in randomized trials assessing nonpharmacological treatments.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabelle Boutron

2007-02-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Blinding is a cornerstone of treatment evaluation. Blinding is more difficult to obtain in trials assessing nonpharmacological treatment and frequently relies on "creative" (nonstandard methods. The purpose of this study was to systematically describe the strategies used to obtain blinding in a sample of randomized controlled trials of nonpharmacological treatment. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We systematically searched in Medline and the Cochrane Methodology Register for randomized controlled trials (RCTs assessing nonpharmacological treatment with blinding, published during 2004 in high-impact-factor journals. Data were extracted using a standardized extraction form. We identified 145 articles, with the method of blinding described in 123 of the reports. Methods of blinding of participants and/or health care providers and/or other caregivers concerned mainly use of sham procedures such as simulation of surgical procedures, similar attention-control interventions, or a placebo with a different mode of administration for rehabilitation or psychotherapy. Trials assessing devices reported various placebo interventions such as use of sham prosthesis, identical apparatus (e.g., identical but inactivated machine or use of activated machine with a barrier to block the treatment, or simulation of using a device. Blinding participants to the study hypothesis was also an important method of blinding. The methods reported for blinding outcome assessors relied mainly on centralized assessment of paraclinical examinations, clinical examinations (i.e., use of video, audiotape, photography, or adjudications of clinical events. CONCLUSIONS: This study classifies blinding methods and provides a detailed description of methods that could overcome some barriers of blinding in clinical trials assessing nonpharmacological treatment, and provides information for readers assessing the quality of results of such trials.

The development of a postal method to assess X-ray beam parameters and image quality in dental radiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fenton, D.M.

1994-10-01

Intraoral radiographs are an extremely valuable diagnostic tool in dentistry. Radiography permits the early detection and diagnosis of dental disease and consequently is used extensively. However, public concern about radiation exposure has increased in recent times. This concern is reflected in national and international law, to the extent that, the basic principles of radiological protection, that is, justification, optimisation and dose limitation are written into law. Furthermore, in Ireland, the regulations, as outlined in the Code of Practice for Radiological Protection in Dentistry, require intraoral dental X-ray machines to perform to certain standards. A report of a direct survey of 164 intraoral dental X-ray machines is given in this study. The survey covered mechanical, electrical as well as radiation safety. Inadequacies with respect to focus to skin distance and timer accuracy were found in 45% and 42% of the machines surveyed. Ninety eight machines were assessed for electrical safety in which 48% were found to be unsafe. The results indicate that a complete assessment of the performance of dental X-ray units in Ireland is required. However, as there are in excess of 800 dental X-ray machines located throughout the country, such an assessment would be very costly for the regulatory authority. The development of a postal method for the assessment of the performance of dental X-ray machines is described in this study. This postal method provides information on the kV, total filtration, beam width and timer linearity and is undertaken by means of a penetrameter and film envelopes for exposure to the X-ray set under examination, together with a questionnaire that requests information on environment in which the machine is located. Using this method an accuracy of +-5% of the actual value was achieved in the measurement of kVp. The penetrameter was also used to assess whether or not the filtration of a particular machine complies with the regulations. This

Improved power performance assessment methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frandsen, S; Antoniou, I; Dahlberg, J A [and others

1999-03-01

The uncertainty of presently-used methods for retrospective assessment of the productive capacity of wind farms is unacceptably large. The possibilities of improving the accuracy have been investigated and are reported. A method is presented that includes an extended power curve and site calibration. In addition, blockage effects with respect to reference wind speed measurements are analysed. It is found that significant accuracy improvements are possible by the introduction of more input variables such as turbulence and wind shear, in addition to mean wind speed and air density. Also, the testing of several or all machines in the wind farm - instead of only one or two - may provide a better estimate of the average performance. (au)

Assessment of hip dysplasia and osteoarthritis: Variability of different methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Troelsen, Anders; Elmengaard, Brian; Soeballe, Kjeld; Roemer, Lone; Kring, Soeren

2010-01-01

Background: Reliable assessment of hip dysplasia and osteoarthritis is crucial in young adults who may benefit from joint-preserving surgery. Purpose: To investigate the variability of different methods for diagnostic assessment of hip dysplasia and osteoarthritis. Material and Methods: By each of four observers, two assessments were done by vision and two by angle construction. For both methods, the intra- and interobserver variability of center-edge and acetabular index angle assessment were analyzed. The observers' ability to diagnose hip dysplasia and osteoarthritis were assessed. All measures were compared to those made on computed tomography scan. Results: Intra- and interobserver variability of angle assessment was less when angles were drawn compared with assessment by vision, and the observers' ability to diagnose hip dysplasia improved when angles were drawn. Assessment of osteoarthritis in general showed poor agreement with findings on computed tomography scan. Conclusion: We recommend that angles always should be drawn for assessment of hip dysplasia on pelvic radiographs. Given the inherent variability of diagnostic assessment of hip dysplasia, a computed tomography scan could be considered in patients with relevant hip symptoms and a center-edge angle between 20 deg and 30 deg. Osteoarthritis should be assessed by measuring the joint space width or by classifying the Toennis grade as either 0-1 or 2-3

Interlaboratory Validation of the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF) Method 1313 and Method 1316

Science.gov (United States)

This document summarizes the results of an interlaboratory study conducted to generate precision estimates for two parallel batch leaching methods which are part of the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF). These methods are: (1) Method 1313: Liquid-Solid Partition...

Tank Bump Accident Potential and Consequences During Waste Retrieval

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

BRATZEL, D.R.

2000-01-01

This report provides an evaluation of Hanford tank bump accident potential and consequences during waste retrieval operations. The purpose of this report is to consider the best available new information to support recommendations for safety controls. A new tank bump accident analysis for safe storage (Epstein et al. 2000) is extended for this purpose. A tank bump is a postulated event in which gases, consisting mostly of water vapor, are suddenly emitted from the waste and cause tank headspace pressurization. Tank bump scenarios, physical models, and frequency and consequence methods are fully described in Epstein et al. (2000). The analysis scope is waste retrieval from double-shell tanks (DSTs) including operation of equipment such as mixer pumps and air lift circulators. The analysis considers physical mechanisms for tank bump to formulate criteria for bump potential during retrieval, application of the criteria to the DSTs, evaluation of bump frequency, and consequence analysis of a bump. The result of the consequence analysis is the mass of waste released from tanks; radiological dose is calculated using standard methods (Cowley et al. 2000)

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

Elder abuse in the community : prevalence and consequences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Comijs, H C; Pot, A M; Smit, J H; Bouter, L M; Jonker, C

OBJECTIVES: (1) To assess the prevalence and the consequences of chronic verbal aggression, physical aggression, financial mistreatment, and neglect in a community-based sample; (2) to investigate the circumstances that led to the abuse and the ways in which the victims handled the problem. DESIGN:

Risk assessment methods for life cycle costing in buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oduyemi Olufolahan

2016-01-01

Originality/value. This paper contributes with new outlooks aimed at assessing the current level of awareness, usage and advocated benefits of risk assessment methods in LCC and adds to the limited empirical studies on risk assessment to corporate occupants and decision makers.

Direct Survival Analysis: a new stock assessment method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Ferrandis

2007-03-01

Full Text Available In this work, a new stock assessment method, Direct Survival Analysis, is proposed and described. The parameter estimation of the Weibull survival model proposed by Ferrandis (2007 is obtained using trawl survey data. This estimation is used to establish a baseline survival function, which is in turn used to estimate the specific survival functions in the different cohorts considered through an adaptation of the separable model of the fishing mortality rates introduced by Pope and Shepherd (1982. It is thus possible to test hypotheses on the evolution of survival during the period studied and to identify trends in recruitment. A link is established between the preceding analysis of trawl survey data and the commercial catch-at-age data that are generally obtained to evaluate the population using analytical models. The estimated baseline survival, with the proposed versions of the stock and catch equations and the adaptation of the Separable Model, may be applied to commercial catch-at-age data. This makes it possible to estimate the survival corresponding to the landing data, the initial size of the cohort and finally, an effective age of first capture, in order to complete the parameter model estimation and consequently the estimation of the whole survival and mortality, along with the reference parameters that are useful for management purposes. Alternatively, this estimation of an effective age of first capture may be obtained by adapting the demographic structure of trawl survey data to that of the commercial fleet through suitable selectivity models of the commercial gears. The complete model provides the evaluation of the stock at any age. The coherence (and hence the mutual “calibration” between the two kinds of information may be analysed and compared with results obtained by other methods, such as virtual population analysis (VPA, in order to improve the diagnosis of the state of exploitation of the population. The model may be

Advanced methods of fatigue assessment

CERN Document Server

Radaj, Dieter

2013-01-01

The book in hand presents advanced methods of brittle fracture and fatigue assessment. The Neuber concept of fictitious notch rounding is enhanced with regard to theory and application. The stress intensity factor concept for cracks is extended to pointed and rounded corner notches as well as to locally elastic-plastic material behaviour. The averaged strain energy density within a circular sector volume around the notch tip is shown to be suitable for strength-assessments. Finally, the various implications of cyclic plasticity on fatigue crack growth are explained with emphasis being laid on the DJ-integral approach.   This book continues the expositions of the authors’ well known reference work in German language ‘Ermüdungsfestigkeit – Grundlagen für Ingenieure’ (Fatigue strength – fundamentals for engineers).

Quantitative assessment of breast density: comparison of different methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qin Naishan; Guo Li; Dang Yi; Song Luxin; Wang Xiaoying

2011-01-01

Objective: To Compare different methods of quantitative breast density measurement. Methods: The study included sixty patients who underwent both mammography and breast MRI. The breast density was computed automatically on digital mammograms with R2 workstation, Two experienced radiologists read the mammograms and assessed the breast density with Wolfe and ACR classification respectively. Fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm (FCM) was used to assess breast density on MRI. Each assessment method was repeated after 2 weeks. Spearman and Pearson correlations of inter- and intrareader and intermodality were computed for density estimates. Results: Inter- and intrareader correlation of Wolfe classification were 0.74 and 0.65, and they were 0.74 and 0.82 for ACR classification respectively. Correlation between Wolfe and ACR classification was 0.77. High interreader correlation of 0.98 and intrareader correlation of 0.96 was observed with MR FCM measurement. And the correlation between digital mammograms and MRI was high in the assessment of breast density (r=0.81, P<0.01). Conclusion: High correlation of breast density estimates on digital mammograms and MRI FCM suggested the former could be used as a simple and accurate method. (authors)

Visual art teachers and performance assessment methods in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper examines the competencies of visual arts teachers in using performance assessment methods, and to ascertain the extent to which the knowledge, skills and experiences of teachers affect their competence in using assessment strategies in their classroom. The study employs a qualitative research design; ...

[Thrombosis and post-thrombotic syndrome as a consequence of an accident].

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, U; Hirsch, T

2015-10-01

Phlebothromboses represent alarming complications in accident victims since they can cause fatal pulmonary embolisms. More than half of those affected also develop post-thrombotic syndrome in the course of the illness. In addition to making clinical assessments, the traumatologist should also have fundamental knowledge about diagnostic methods and be familiar with interpreting internal findings. Colour-coded duplex sonography plays a central role in diagnosing thrombosis and in assessing functional limitations. Further information can be gathered from various phlebological procedures. The expert evaluation of the immediate, as well as the long-term consequences of an accident frequently require leg swelling to be classified. It is not uncommon for post-thrombotic syndrome to be diagnosed for the first time during this process. An additional vascular appraisal is often required. An appreciation of social-medical and insurance-related aspects means a high degree of responsibility is placed on the expert.

Assessment of chemical exposures: calculation methods for environmental professionals

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Daugherty, Jack E

1997-01-01

... on by scientists, businessmen, and policymakers. Assessment of Chemical Exposures: Calculation Methods for Environmental Professionals addresses the expanding scope of exposure assessments in both the workplace and environment...

An assessment of the radiological consequences of accidents in research reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferreira, N.L.D.

1992-01-01

This work analyses the radiological consequences of accidents in two types of research reactors: a 5 MWt open pool reactor and a 50 MWt PWR reactor. Two siting cases have been considered: the reactor located near to a large population center and sited in a rural area. The influence of several factors such as source term, meteorological conditions and population distribution have been considered in the present analysis. (author)

Assessing Commercial and Alternative Poultry Processing Methods using Microbiome Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Assessing poultry processing methods/strategies has historically used culture-based methods to assess bacterial changes or reductions, both in terms of general microbial communities (e.g. total aerobic bacteria) or zoonotic pathogens of interest (e.g. Salmonella, Campylobacter). The advent of next ...

Using Life Cycle Revenue Loss and Monte Carlo simulation as a prior and direct assessment of consequences of un-wished events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muchiu, Chang; Lewins, J.D.

1998-01-01

In this paper we address the importance of including the consideration of revenue loss into the safety analysis as well as system optimisation and modify the traditional Life Cycle Cost (LCC) into Life Cycle Revenue Loss (LCRL) as the criterion of optimisation and a quantitative assessment of the consequence of un-wished ebents, such as system unavailability. Through the Monte Carlo simulation technique and a simple scenario of decision making in a bidding process, we demonstrate the feasibility of our new LCRL model

Development of Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) for Physical Protection System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Yoo, Ho Sik

2010-01-01

A physical protection system (PPS) integrates people, procedures and equipment for the protection of assets or facilities against theft, sabotage or other malevolent human attacks. Among critical facilities, nuclear facilities and nuclear weapon sites require the highest level of PPS. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, international communities, including the IAEA, have made substantial efforts to protect nuclear material and nuclear facilities. The international flow on nuclear security is using the concept or risk assessment. The concept of risk assessment is firstly devised by nuclear safety people. They considered nuclear safety including its possible risk, which is the frequency of failure and possible consequence. Nuclear security people also considers security risk, which is the frequency of threat action, vulnerability, and consequences. The concept means that we should protect more when the credible threat exists and the possible radiological consequence is high. Even if there are several risk assessment methods of nuclear security, the application needs the help of tools because of a lot of calculation. It's also hard to find tools for whole phase of risk assessment. Several codes exist for the part of risk assessment. SAVI are used for vulnerability of PPS. Vital area identification code is used for consequence analysis. We are developing Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) to apply risk assessment methods for nuclear facilities. INCORIA evaluates PP-KINAC measures and generation tools for threat scenario. PP-KINAC is risk assessment measures for physical protection system developed by Hosik Yoo and is easy to apply. A threat scenario tool is used to generate threat scenario, which is used as one of input value to PP-KINAC measures

Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

1995-01-01

This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFICIENCY OF DISINFECTION METHOD ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

eobe

ABSTRACT. The efficiencies of three disinfection methods namely boiling, water guard and pur purifier were assessed. ... Water is an indispensable resource for supporting life systems [2- ...... developing country context: improving decisions.

Assessment of hip dysplasia and osteoarthritis: Variability of different methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Troelsen, Anders; Elmengaard, Brian; Soeballe, Kjeld (Orthopedic Research Unit, Univ. Hospital of Aarhus, Aarhus (Denmark)), e-mail: a_troelsen@hotmail.com; Roemer, Lone (Dept. of Radiology, Univ. Hospital of Aarhus, Aarhus (Denmark)); Kring, Soeren (Dept. of Orthopedic Surgery, Aabenraa Hospital, Aabenraa (Denmark))

2010-03-15

Background: Reliable assessment of hip dysplasia and osteoarthritis is crucial in young adults who may benefit from joint-preserving surgery. Purpose: To investigate the variability of different methods for diagnostic assessment of hip dysplasia and osteoarthritis. Material and Methods: By each of four observers, two assessments were done by vision and two by angle construction. For both methods, the intra- and interobserver variability of center-edge and acetabular index angle assessment were analyzed. The observers' ability to diagnose hip dysplasia and osteoarthritis were assessed. All measures were compared to those made on computed tomography scan. Results: Intra- and interobserver variability of angle assessment was less when angles were drawn compared with assessment by vision, and the observers' ability to diagnose hip dysplasia improved when angles were drawn. Assessment of osteoarthritis in general showed poor agreement with findings on computed tomography scan. Conclusion: We recommend that angles always should be drawn for assessment of hip dysplasia on pelvic radiographs. Given the inherent variability of diagnostic assessment of hip dysplasia, a computed tomography scan could be considered in patients with relevant hip symptoms and a center-edge angle between 20 deg and 30 deg. Osteoarthritis should be assessed by measuring the joint space width or by classifying the Toennis grade as either 0-1 or 2-3

Rapid assessment methods in eye care: An overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Srinivas Marmamula

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Reliable information is required for the planning and management of eye care services. While classical research methods provide reliable estimates, they are prohibitively expensive and resource intensive. Rapid assessment (RA methods are indispensable tools in situations where data are needed quickly and where time- or cost-related factors prohibit the use of classical epidemiological surveys. These methods have been developed and field tested, and can be applied across almost the entire gamut of health care. The 1990s witnessed the emergence of RA methods in eye care for cataract, onchocerciasis, and trachoma and, more recently, the main causes of avoidable blindness and visual impairment. The important features of RA methods include the use of local resources, simplified sampling methodology, and a simple examination protocol/data collection method that can be performed by locally available personnel. The analysis is quick and easy to interpret. The entire process is inexpensive, so the survey may be repeated once every 5-10 years to assess the changing trends in disease burden. RA survey methods are typically linked with an intervention. This article provides an overview of the RA methods commonly used in eye care, and emphasizes the selection of appropriate methods based on the local need and context.

Proceedings of the High Consequence Operations Safety Symposium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-12-01

Many organizations face high consequence safety situations where unwanted stimuli due to accidents, catastrophes, or inadvertent human actions can cause disasters. In order to improve interaction among such organizations and to build on each others` experience, preventive approaches, and assessment techniques, the High Consequence Operations Safety Symposium was held July 12--14, 1994 at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico. The symposium was conceived by Dick Schwoebel, Director of the SNL Surety Assessment Center. Stan Spray, Manager of the SNL System Studies Department, planned strategy and made many of the decisions necessary to bring the concept to fruition on a short time scale. Angela Campos and about 60 people worked on the nearly limitless implementation and administrative details. The initial symposium (future symposia are planned) was structured around 21 plenary presentations in five methodology-oriented sessions, along with a welcome address, a keynote address, and a banquet address. Poster papers addressing the individual session themes were available before and after the plenary sessions and during breaks.

Assessment of radiological consequences of routine releases in a site with various nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lucinio, Elena Albeira Guirado

2003-01-01

This work evaluates the radiological consequences of a nuclear site with a complex of fuel enrichment, conversion, reconversion facilities and a nuclear reactor. A methodology recommended by the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) is used and implemented in the PC-CREAM computer code. This code is composed of six linked modules, which describe the transfer of radionuclides to the environment, the pathways on which people may be exposed to radiation, and the radiological consequences. Radiation doses to a selected population are evaluated taking into account atmospheric and aquatic releases. (author)

Assessment of procurement methods used for executing ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Assessment of procurement methods used for executing maintenance works in Lagos state. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... Others are risk allocation, price competition and flexibility of contract. Finally, better ...

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

Comparison of concepts in easy-to-use methods for MSD risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Roman-Liu, Danuta

2014-05-01

This article presents a comparative analysis of easy-to-use methods for assessing musculoskeletal load and the risk for developing musculoskeletal disorders. In all such methods, assessment of load consists in defining input data, the procedure and the system of assessment. This article shows what assessment steps the methods have in common; it also shows how those methods differ in each step. In addition, the methods are grouped according to their characteristic features. The conclusion is that the concepts of assessing risk in different methods can be used to develop solutions leading to a comprehensive method appropriate for all work tasks and all parts of the body. However, studies are necessary to verify the accepted premises and to introduce some standardization that would make consolidation possible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Direction Committee for the management of the post-accident phase of a nuclear accident or of a radiological event (CODIRPA). Work group 'Hypotheses'. Contextual data and hypotheses to perform predictive assessments of radiological and dose consequences at the beginning of a post-accidental transition phase. 2007-2009 work report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

This report first describes how to examine the various exposure ways of a person present on a contaminated territory and formulates hypotheses for the calculation of radioactive doses received by ingestion of contaminated food products, by external irradiation, or by involuntary inhalation of radioactive particles. It identifies factors which may influence the contamination of food products, and gives recommendations for the predictive calculation of their contamination during the first month following the accident. It indicates available methods for the predictive assessment of radioactive deposits at the beginning of the transition phase. It proposes an expertise method to assess the post-accident consequences

Savannah River Site K-Reactor Probabilistic Safety Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandyberry, M.D.; Bailey, R.T.; Baker, W.H.; Kearnaghan, D.P.; O'Kula, K.R.; Wittman, R.S.; Woody, N.D.; Amos, C.N.; Weingardt, J.J.

1992-12-01

This report gives the results of a Savannah River Site (SRS) K-Reactor Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). Measures of adverse consequences to health and safety resulting from representations of severe accidents in SRS reactors are presented. In addition, the report gives a summary of the methods employed to represent these accidents and to assess the resultant consequences. The report is issued to provide useful information to the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) on the risk of operation of SRS reactors, for insights into severe accident phenomena that contribute to this risk, and in support of improved bases for other DOE programs in Heavy Water Reactor safety

Coronary microvasculopathy in heart transplantation: Consequences and therapeutic implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Vecchiati, Alessandra; Tellatin, Sara; Angelini, Annalisa; Iliceto, Sabino; Tona, Francesco

2014-06-24

Despite the progress made in the prevention and treatment of rejection of the transplanted heart, cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) remains the main cause of death in late survival transplanted patients. CAV consists of a progressive diffuse intimal hyperplasia and the proliferation of vascular smooth muscle cells, ending in wall thickening of epicardial vessels, intramyocardial arteries (50-20 μm), arterioles (20-10 μm), and capillaries (system. The non-immunological factors are older donor age, ischemia-reperfusion time, hyperlipidemia and CMV infections. Diagnostic techniques that are able to assess microvascular function are lacking. Intravascular ultrasound and fractional flow reserve, when performed during coronary angiography, are able to detect epicardial coronary artery disease but are not sensitive enough to assess microvascular changes. Some authors have proposed an index of microcirculatory resistance during maximal hyperemia, which is calculated by dividing pressure by flow (distal pressure multiplied by the hyperemic mean transit time). Non-invasive methods to assess coronary physiology are stress echocardiography, coronary flow reserve by transthoracic Doppler echocardiography, single photon emission computed tomography, and perfusion cardiac magnetic resonance. In this review, we intend to analyze the mechanisms, consequences and therapeutic implications of microvascular dysfunction, including an extended citation of relevant literature data.

Safety assessment of high consequence robotics system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, D.G.; Atcitty, C.B.

1996-01-01

This paper outlines the use of a failure modes and effects analysis for the safety assessment of a robotic system being developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The robotic system, the weigh and leak check system, is to replace a manual process for weight and leakage of nuclear materials at the DOE Pantex facility. Failure modes and effects analyses were completed for the robotics process to ensure that safety goals for the systems have been met. Due to the flexible nature of the robot configuration, traditional failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) were not applicable. In addition, the primary focus of safety assessments of robotics systems has been the protection of personnel in the immediate area. In this application, the safety analysis must account for the sensitivities of the payload as well as traditional issues. A unique variation on the classical FMEA was developed that permits an organized and quite effective tool to be used to assure that safety was adequately considered during the development of the robotic system. The fundamental aspects of the approach are outlined in the paper

Preliminary assessment of beam impact consequences on LHC Collimators

CERN Document Server

Cauchi, M; Bertarelli, A; Bruce, R; Carra, F; Dallocchio, A; Deboy, D; Mariani, N; Rossi, A; Lari, L; Mollicone, P; Sammut, N

2011-01-01

The correct functioning of the LHC collimation system is crucial to attain the desired LHC luminosity performance. However, the requirements to handle high intensity beams can be demanding. In this respect, the robustness of the collimators plays an important role. An accident, which causes the proton beam to hit a collimator, might result in severe beam-induced damage and, in some cases, replacement of the collimator, with consequent downtime for the machine. In this paper, several case studies representing different realistic beam impact scenarios are shown. A preliminary analysis of the thermal response of tertiary collimators to beam impact is presented, from which the most critical cases can be identified. Such work will also help to give an initial insight on the operational constraints of the LHC by taking into account all relevant collimator damage limits.

Methods of Environmental Impact Assessment in Colombia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Toro Calderón

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA in Colombia constitutes the primary tool for making decisions with respect to projects, works and activities (PWA with potential for significant environmental impacts. In the case of the infrastructure of the PWA, the EIA is mandatory and determines the environmental license (EL for construction and operation. This paper analyzes the methods used to assess the environmental impact of the PWA that have applied for licenses with the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development. It was found that the method most frequently used is the qualitative proposal by Conesa, with modifications that reduce the effectiveness of the EIA and favor the subjectivity and bias of the evaluator. Finally a series of recom­mendations to improve the process in the country are proposed.

Radiological assessment and optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeevaert, T.; Sohier, A.

1998-01-01

The objectives of SCK-CEN's research in the field of radiological assessment and optimization are (1) to implement ALARA principles in activities with radiological consequences; (2) to develop methodologies for radiological optimization in decision-aiding; (3) to improve methods to assess in real time the radiological hazards in the environment in case of an accident; (4) to develop methods and programmes to assist decision-makers during a nuclear emergency; (5) to support the policy of radioactive waste management authorities in the field of radiation protection; (6) to investigate computer codes in the area of multi criteria analysis; (7) to organise courses on off-site emergency response to nuclear accidents. Main achievements in these areas for 1997 are summarised

Developing an Engineering Design Process Assessment using Mixed Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Wind, Stefanie A; Alemdar, Meltem; Lingle, Jeremy A; Gale, Jessica D; Moore, Roxanne A

Recent reforms in science education worldwide include an emphasis on engineering design as a key component of student proficiency in the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics disciplines. However, relatively little attention has been directed to the development of psychometrically sound assessments for engineering. This study demonstrates the use of mixed methods to guide the development and revision of K-12 Engineering Design Process (EDP) assessment items. Using results from a middle-school EDP assessment, this study illustrates the combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques to inform item development and revisions. Overall conclusions suggest that the combination of quantitative and qualitative evidence provides an in-depth picture of item quality that can be used to inform the revision and development of EDP assessment items. Researchers and practitioners can use the methods illustrated here to gather validity evidence to support the interpretation and use of new and existing assessments.

Radiological consequences of radioactive effluents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, R.H.

1979-01-01

A study of the differential radiological impact of the nuclear fuel cycle with and without plutonium recycle is being undertaken jointly by the National Radiological Protection Board and the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA). A summary is given of the development of the methodology detailed in their first report to the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) (NRPB/CEA, A methodology for evaluating the radiological consequences of radioactive effluents released in normal operations. Luxembourg, CEC Doc. V/3011/75 EN (1979)). The Collective Effective Dose Equivalent Commitment was used in an attempt to assess the total health detriment. The application of the methodology within particular member states of the European Community has been discussed at seminars. Sensitivity analysis can identify the more important parameters for improving the accuracy of the assessment. (UK)

A new method for quantitative assessment of resilience engineering by PCA and NT approach: A case study in a process industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shirali, Gh.A.; Mohammadfam, I.; Ebrahimipour, V.

2013-01-01

In recent years, resilience engineering (RE) has attracted widespread interest from industry as well as academia because it presents a new way of thinking about safety and accident. Although the concept of RE was defined scholarly in various areas, there are only few which specifically focus on how to measure RE. Therefore, there is a gap in assessing resilience by quantitative methods. This research aimed at presenting a new method for quantitative assessment of RE using questionnaire and based on principal component analysis. However, six resilience indicators, i.e., top management commitment, Just culture, learning culture, awareness and opacity, preparedness, and flexibility were chosen, and the data related to those in the 11 units of a process industry using a questionnaire was gathered. The data was analyzed based on principal component analysis (PCA) approach. The analysis also leads to determination of the score of resilience indicators and the process units. The process units were ranked using these scores. Consequently, the prescribed approach can determine the poor indicators and the process units. This is the first study that considers a quantitative assessment in RE area which is conducted through PCA. Implementation of the proposed methods would enable the managers to recognize the current weaknesses and challenges against the resilience of their system. -- Highlights: •We quantitatively measure the potential of resilience. •The results are more tangible to understand and interpret. •The method facilitates comparison of resilience state among various process units. •The method facilitates comparison of units' resilience state with the best practice

Transfrontier consequences to the population of Greece of large scale nuclear accidents: a preliminary assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kollas, J.G.; Catsaros, Nicolas.

1985-06-01

In this report the consequences to the population of Greece from hypothetical large scale nuclear accidents at the Kozlodui (Bulgaria) nuclear power station are estimated under some simplifying assumptions. Three different hypothetical accident scenarios - the most serious for pressurized water reactors - are examined. The analysis is performed by the current Greek version of code CRAC2 and includes health and economic consequences to the population of Greece. (author)

Statistical methods for assessing agreement between continuous measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sokolowski, Ineta; Hansen, Rikke Pilegaard; Vedsted, Peter

Background: Clinical research often involves study of agreement amongst observers. Agreement can be measured in different ways, and one can obtain quite different values depending on which method one uses. Objective: We review the approaches that have been discussed to assess the agreement between...... continuous measures and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. Different methods are illustrated using actual data from the `Delay in diagnosis of cancer in general practice´ project in Aarhus, Denmark. Subjects and Methods: We use weighted kappa-statistic, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC......), concordance coefficient, Bland-Altman limits of agreement and percentage of agreement to assess the agreement between patient reported delay and doctor reported delay in diagnosis of cancer in general practice. Key messages: The correct statistical approach is not obvious. Many studies give the product...

Traumatic physical health consequences of intimate partner violence against women: what is the role of community-level factors?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antai Diddy

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Intimate partner violence (IPV against women is a serious public health issue with recognizable direct health consequences. This study assessed the association between IPV and traumatic physical health consequences on women in Nigeria, given that communities exert significant influence on the individuals that are embedded within them, with the nature of influence varying between communities. Methods Cross-sectional nationally-representative data of women aged 15 - 49 years in the 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey was used in this study. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between IPV and several forms of physical health consequences. Results Bruises were the most common form of traumatic physical health consequences. In the adjusted models, the likelihood of sustaining bruises (OR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.05 - 3.46, wounds (OR = 2.54, 95% CI = 1.31 - 4.95, and severe burns (OR = 3.20, 95% CI = 1.63 - 6.28 was significantly higher for women exposed to IPV compared to those not exposed to IPV. However, after adjusting for individual- and community-level factors, women with husbands/partners with controlling behavior, those with primary or no education, and those resident in communities with high tolerance for wife beating had a higher likelihood of experiencing IPV, whilst mean community-level education and women 24 years or younger were at lower likelihood of experiencing IPV. Conclusions Evidence from this study shows that exposure to IPV is associated with increased likelihood of traumatic physical consequences for women in Nigeria. Education and justification of wife beating were significant community-level factors associated with traumatic physical consequences, suggesting the importance of increasing women's levels of education and changing community norms that justify controlling behavior and IPV.

Procrastination, consideration of future consequences, and episodic future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Rebetez, Marie My Lien; Barsics, Catherine; Rochat, Lucien; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-05-01

Despite the intrinsic temporal nature of procrastination, little research has examined the link between this form of self-regulatory failure and the consideration of future consequences, and no study has addressed the link between procrastination and episodic future thinking. The aim of the present study was to explore these relationships. Participants were asked to project themselves into possible future events and to rate the amount of sensory-perceptual details and autonoetic consciousness associated with their representations. They were also asked to complete questionnaires that assessed procrastination, the consideration of future consequences, and negative affect. Results showed that both the consideration of future consequences and episodic future thinking were associated with procrastination, and in particular with procrastination-related decision making abilities and procrastination-related motivational dispositions, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Examination of the Relationship between Consequence-Specific Normative Belief Patterns and Alcohol-Related Consequences among College Students

Science.gov (United States)

Reavy, Racheal; Cleveland, Michael J.; Mallett, Kimberly A.; Scaglione, Nichole M.; Sell, Nichole M.; Turrisi, Rob

2016-01-01

Background Research has previously identified a high-risk subgroup of college students who experience high levels of multiple and repeated alcohol-related consequences (MRC group). The purpose of this study was to examine the association between consequence-specific normative influences and experiencing multiple and repeated drinking-related consequences using a person-centered approach. Normative subgroups were identified using latent profile analysis (LPA), which were then used to predict MRC group status at 6-month follow-up. Methods First-year college student drinkers (N=2024) at a large northeastern university completed online surveys during the fall and spring semesters of their freshman year. Retention was high with 92% of invited participants completing T2, of which the MRC group accounted for 27%. Results Three student profiles were identified from LPA on T1 data: Non Permissive Parents (77%), Positive Peer and Parent Norms (20%), and Permissive Parents (3%). Logistic regression revealed that both the Positive Peer and Parent Norms and Permissive Parents profiles had significantly higher odds of MRC group membership at follow-up (1.81 and 2.78 times greater, respectively). Conclusions The results suggest value in prevention efforts that include normative beliefs about alcohol-related consequences. Further, parental norms in particular have the potential to enhance interventions, especially through direct communication of disapproval for experiencing consequences. PMID:27805274

Dogmas in the assessment of usability evaluation methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hornbæk, Kasper

2010-01-01

Usability evaluation methods (UEMs) are widely recognised as an essential part of systems development. Assessments of the performance of UEMs, however, have been criticised for low validity and limited reliability. The present study extends this critique by describing seven dogmas in recent work ...... research approaches that may help move beyond the dogmas. In particular, we emphasise detailed studies of evaluation processes, assessments of the impact of UEMs on design carried out in real-world systems development and analyses of how UEMs may be combined......Usability evaluation methods (UEMs) are widely recognised as an essential part of systems development. Assessments of the performance of UEMs, however, have been criticised for low validity and limited reliability. The present study extends this critique by describing seven dogmas in recent work...... on UEMs. The dogmas include using inadequate procedures and measures for assessment, focusing on win-lose outcomes, holding simplistic models of how usability evaluators work, concentrating on evaluation rather than on design and working from the assumption that usability problems are real. We discuss...

Method for assessing reliability of a network considering probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, M.

2005-01-01

A method for assessment of reliability of the network is developed, which uses the features of the fault tree analysis. The method is developed in a way that the increase of the network under consideration does not require significant increase of the model. The method is applied to small examples of network consisting of a small number of nodes and a small number of their connections. The results give the network reliability. They identify equipment, which is to be carefully maintained in order that the network reliability is not reduced, and equipment, which is a candidate for redundancy, as this would improve network reliability significantly. (author)

Expanding the Aperture of Psychological Assessment: Introduction to the Special Section on Innovative Clinical Assessment Technologies and Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Trull, Timothy J.

2007-01-01

Contemporary psychological assessment is dominated by tried-and-true methods like clinical interviewing, self-report questionnaires, intellectual assessment, and behavioral observation. These approaches have served as the mainstays of psychological assessment for decades. To be sure, these methods have survived over the years because clinicians…

Safety assessment of nuclear medicine practice using the Risk Matrix Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cruz, Dumenigo; Cruz, Yoanis; Soler, Karen; Guerrero, Mayka

2013-01-01

This paper presents the main results from the application of the methodology of Risk Matrices in a hypothetical service / department of the Nuclear medicine that realize metabolic radiotherapy treatment and diagnostic studies with 131 I and 99 m Tc and 18 F. We could identify major equipment failures and human errors that could potentially lead to a accident in practice. For each analyzed initiating events evaluated the frequency of occurrence, identified key existing defenses to avoid the accident and assessed the potential consequences of an accident if this comes to fruition. With this methodology we could identify which accident sequences increased risk and to propose means to reduce the risk in such cases. As a result of this work was developed the 'RMA Nuclear Medicine' computer tools that will apply this methodology in nuclear medicine services that need to do similar risk assessments

In Vienna about Chernobyl. Summing up the consequences of the accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Latek, S.

1996-01-01

The Joint EC/IAEA/WHO International Conference ''One Decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident'' has been held in Vienna, 8-12 April 1996. The most important subjects of the conference was: assessment of total releases and deposits, radiation doses, clinically observed effects, thyroid effects, longer term health effects, psychological and environmental consequences, social economic, institutional and political impact, nuclear safety, sarcophagus, perspective and prognosis

Suitability of voltage stability study methods for real-time assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Perez, Angel; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Vancraeyveld, Pieter

2013-01-01

This paper analyzes the suitability of existing methods for long-term voltage stability assessment for real-time operation. An overview of the relevant methods is followed with a comparison that takes into account the accuracy, computational efficiency and characteristics when used for security...... assessment. The results enable an evaluation of the run time of each method with respect to the number of inputs. Furthermore, the results assist in identifying which of the methods is most suitable for realtime operation in future power system with production based on fluctuating energy sources....

Ecological momentary assessment of antecedents and consequences of smoking in adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, John T; Dennis, Michelle F; English, Joseph S; Dennis, Paul A; Brightwood, Amy; Beckham, Jean C; Kollins, Scott H

2014-09-01

The current study assessed antecedents and consequences of ad lib cigarette smoking in smokers diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) using ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Adult smokers with ADHD (n = 17) completed 870 smoking and 622 nonsmoking electronic diary entries over a 7-day observation period of their naturalistic smoking behavior. Data collection occurred from 2011 to 2012. Generalized estimating equations indicated that ADHD smokers were more likely to smoke when urge to smoke, negative affect, boredom, stress, worry, and restlessness were elevated. In addition, participants were more likely to smoke in situations that elicited higher levels of nervousness and frustration. ADHD symptoms, in general, did not differ between smoking and nonsmoking contexts, though hyperactive-impulsive ADHD symptoms were elevated prior to smoking in frustrating situations. Additional situational antecedent variables were associated with smoking, including being in the presence of others smoking, being in a bar or restaurant, while outside, and while consuming caffeinated or alcoholic beverages. Participants also reported a significant improvement in urge to smoke, negative affect, stress, hunger, and ADHD symptoms after smoking a cigarette. Findings suggest certain contextual factors that may maintain ad lib cigarette smoking in smokers with ADHD and identify potential treatment targets in smoking cessation interventions for this at-risk group. Clinical implications and future research directions are discussed. Funding for this study was provided by the National Institute on Drug Abuse.

RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ENTROPY METHOD FOR SYSTEM CONSISTED OF IDENTICAL EXPONENTIAL UNITS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Sun Youchao; Shi Jun

2004-01-01

The reliability assessment of unit-system near two levels is the most important content in the reliability multi-level synthesis of complex systems. Introducing the information theory into system reliability assessment, using the addible characteristic of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, an entropy method of data information conversion is presented for the system consisted of identical exponential units. The basic conversion formulae of entropy method of unit test data are derived based on the principle of information quantity equivalence. The general models of entropy method synthesis assessment for system reliability approximate lower limits are established according to the fundamental principle of the unit reliability assessment. The applications of the entropy method are discussed by way of practical examples. Compared with the traditional methods, the entropy method is found to be valid and practicable and the assessment results are very satisfactory.

Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dovilė Peškauskaitė

2017-06-01

Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

Comparison of two- and three-dimensional assessment methods of nasolabial appearance in cleft lip and palate patients: Do the assessment methods measure the same outcome?

Science.gov (United States)

Mosmuller, David G M; Maal, Thomas J; Prahl, Charlotte; Tan, Robin A; Mulder, Frans J; Schwirtz, Roderic M F; de Vet, Henrica C W; Bergé, Stefaan J; Don Griot, J P W

2017-08-01

For the assessment of the nasolabial appearance in cleft patients, a widely accepted, reliable scoring system is not available. In this study four different methods of assessment are compared, including 2D and 3D asymmetry and aesthetic assessments. The data and ratings from an earlier study using the Asher-McDade aesthetic index on 3D photographs and the outcomes of 3D facial distance mapping were compared to a 2D aesthetic assessment, the Cleft Aesthetic Rating Scale, and to SymNose, a computerized 2D asymmetry assessment technique. The reliability and correlation between the four assessment techniques were tested using a sample of 79 patients. The 3D asymmetry assessment had the highest reliability and could be performed by just one observer (Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC): 0.99). The 2D asymmetry assessment of the nose was highly reliable when performed by just one observer (ICC: 0.89). However, for the 2D asymmetry assessment of the lip more observers were needed. For the 2D aesthetic assessments 3 observers were needed. The 3D aesthetic assessment had the lowest single-observer reliability (ICC: 0.38-0.56) of all four techniques. The agreement between the different assessment methods is poor to very poor. The highest correlation (R: 0.48) was found between 2D and 3D aesthetic assessments. Remarkably, the lowest correlations were found between 2D and 3D asymmetry assessments (0.08-0.17). Different assessment methods are not in agreement and seem to measure different nasolabial aspects. More research is needed to establish exactly what each assessment technique measures and which measurements or outcomes are relevant for the patients. Copyright © 2017 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Missed pills: frequency, reasons, consequences and solutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Chabbert-Buffet, Nathalie; Jamin, Christian; Lete, Iñaki; Lobo, Paloma; Nappi, Rossella E; Pintiaux, Axelle; Häusler, Günther; Fiala, Christian

2017-06-01

Oral hormonal contraception is an effective contraceptive method as long as regular daily intake is maintained. However, a daily routine is a constraint for many women and can lead to missed pills, pill discontinuation and/or unintended pregnancy. This article describes the frequency of inconsistent use, the consequences, the risk factors and the possible solutions. The article comprises a narrative review of the literature. Forgetting one to three pills per cycle is a frequent problem among 15-51% of users, generally adolescents. The reasons for this are age, inability to establish a routine, pill unavailability, side effects, loss of motivation and lack of involvement in the initial decision to use oral contraceptives. The consequences are 'escape ovulations' and, possibly, unintended pregnancy. Solutions are either to use a long-acting method or, for women who prefer to take oral contraceptives, use a continuous or long-cycle regimen to reduce the risks of follicular development and thus the likelihood of ovulation and unintended pregnancy. A progestogen with a long half-life can increase ovarian suppression. For women deciding to use oral contraceptives, a shortened or eliminated hormone-free interval and a progestogen with a long half-life may be an option to reduce the negative consequences of missed oral contraceptive pills.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A.; Hora, S.C.; Lui, C.H.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M.; Paesler-Sauer, J.; Helton, J.C.

1995-01-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

1995-01-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.

Meat safety consequences of implementing visual postmortem meat inspection procedures in Danish slaughter pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mousing, Jan; Kyrval, J.; Jensen, Tim Kåre

1997-01-01

The consequences of a change from a traditional meat inspection procedure, including manual handling, palpation and incision, to an entirely postmortem meat inspection procedure in Danish slaughter pigs were assessed by a comparative study of the two methods in 188,383 slaughter pigs. Out of 58...... lesion codes (selected with a prevalence less-than-or-equal-to 5.5 x 10(-5)), 26 (45 percent) were assessed either as merely aesthetic or as the healed stage of an earlier lesion and nine (15 percent) as active, but local processes, occurring only in non-edible tissue. Five lesion codes (9 percent) were...... assessed as active, non-abscessal processes occurring in edible tissue, caused by swine-specific pathogens and 10 (17 percent) were abscessal or pyaemic lesions occurring in edible tissue. Seven lesion codes (12 percent) may be associated with consumer health hazards (two frequently and five rarely...

Standard guide for three methods of assessing buried steel tanks

CERN Document Server

American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

1998-01-01

1.1 This guide covers procedures to be implemented prior to the application of cathodic protection for evaluating the suitability of a tank for upgrading by cathodic protection alone. 1.2 Three procedures are described and identified as Methods A, B, and C. 1.2.1 Method A—Noninvasive with primary emphasis on statistical and electrochemical analysis of external site environment corrosion data. 1.2.2 Method B—Invasive ultrasonic thickness testing with external corrosion evaluation. 1.2.3 Method C—Invasive permanently recorded visual inspection and evaluation including external corrosion assessment. 1.3 This guide presents the methodology and the procedures utilizing site and tank specific data for determining a tank's condition and the suitability for such tanks to be upgraded with cathodic protection. 1.4 The tank's condition shall be assessed using Method A, B, or C. Prior to assessing the tank, a preliminary site survey shall be performed pursuant to Section 8 and the tank shall be tightness test...

Ecological Equivalence Assessment Methods: What Trade-Offs between Operationality, Scientific Basis and Comprehensiveness?

Science.gov (United States)

Bezombes, Lucie; Gaucherand, Stéphanie; Kerbiriou, Christian; Reinert, Marie-Eve; Spiegelberger, Thomas

2017-08-01

In many countries, biodiversity compensation is required to counterbalance negative impacts of development projects on biodiversity by carrying out ecological measures, called offset when the goal is to reach "no net loss" of biodiversity. One main issue is to ensure that offset gains are equivalent to impact-related losses. Ecological equivalence is assessed with ecological equivalence assessment methods taking into account a range of key considerations that we summarized as ecological, spatial, temporal, and uncertainty. When equivalence assessment methods take into account all considerations, we call them "comprehensive". Equivalence assessment methods should also aim to be science-based and operational, which is challenging. Many equivalence assessment methods have been developed worldwide but none is fully satisfying. In the present study, we examine 13 equivalence assessment methods in order to identify (i) their general structure and (ii) the synergies and trade-offs between equivalence assessment methods characteristics related to operationality, scientific-basis and comprehensiveness (called "challenges" in his paper). We evaluate each equivalence assessment methods on the basis of 12 criteria describing the level of achievement of each challenge. We observe that all equivalence assessment methods share a general structure, with possible improvements in the choice of target biodiversity, the indicators used, the integration of landscape context and the multipliers reflecting time lags and uncertainties. We show that no equivalence assessment methods combines all challenges perfectly. There are trade-offs between and within the challenges: operationality tends to be favored while scientific basis are integrated heterogeneously in equivalence assessment methods development. One way of improving the challenges combination would be the use of offset dedicated data-bases providing scientific feedbacks on previous offset measures.

Application of improved topsis method to comprehensive assessment of radiological environmental quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi Dongsheng; Di Yuming; Zhou Chunlin

2007-01-01

TOPSIS is a method for multiobjective decision-making, which can be applied to comprehensive assessment of radiological environmental quality. This paper introduces the principle of TOPSIS method and sets up the model of improved TOPSIS method, discusses the application of improved TOPSIS method to comprehensive assessment of radiological environmental quality. This method sufficiently makes use of the information of the optimal matrix. Analysis of practical examples using MATLAB program shows that it is objectively reasonable and feasible to comprehensively assess radiological environmental quality by improved TOPSIS method. This paper also provides the result of optimum number of sites and compares it with optimal index method based on TOPSIS method and traditional method. (authors)

Deciding which chemical mixtures risk assessment methods work best for what mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teuschler, Linda K.

2007-01-01

The most commonly used chemical mixtures risk assessment methods involve simple notions of additivity and toxicological similarity. Newer methods are emerging in response to the complexities of chemical mixture exposures and effects. Factors based on both science and policy drive decisions regarding whether to conduct a chemical mixtures risk assessment and, if so, which methods to employ. Scientific considerations are based on positive evidence of joint toxic action, elevated human exposure conditions or the potential for significant impacts on human health. Policy issues include legislative drivers that may mandate action even though adequate toxicity data on a specific mixture may not be available and risk assessment goals that impact the choice of risk assessment method to obtain the amount of health protection desired. This paper discusses three important concepts used to choose among available approaches for conducting a chemical mixtures risk assessment: (1) additive joint toxic action of mixture components; (2) toxicological interactions of mixture components; and (3) chemical composition of complex mixtures. It is proposed that scientific support for basic assumptions used in chemical mixtures risk assessment should be developed by expert panels, risk assessment methods experts, and laboratory toxicologists. This is imperative to further develop and refine quantitative methods and provide guidance on their appropriate applications. Risk assessors need scientific support for chemical mixtures risk assessment methods in the form of toxicological data on joint toxic action for high priority mixtures, statistical methods for analyzing dose-response for mixtures, and toxicological and statistical criteria for determining sufficient similarity of complex mixtures

Assessing the Accuracy of Ancestral Protein Reconstruction Methods

OpenAIRE

Williams, Paul D; Pollock, David D; Blackburne, Benjamin P; Goldstein, Richard A

2006-01-01

The phylogenetic inference of ancestral protein sequences is a powerful technique for the study of molecular evolution, but any conclusions drawn from such studies are only as good as the accuracy of the reconstruction method. Every inference method leads to errors in the ancestral protein sequence, resulting in potentially misleading estimates of the ancestral protein's properties. To assess the accuracy of ancestral protein reconstruction methods, we performed computational population evolu...

Significance and challenges of stereoselectivity assessing methods in drug metabolism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhuowei Shen

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Stereoselectivity in drug metabolism can not only influence the pharmacological activities, tolerability, safety, and bioavailability of drugs directly, but also cause different kinds of drug–drug interactions. Thus, assessing stereoselectivity in drug metabolism is of great significance for pharmaceutical research and development (R&D and rational use in clinic. Although there are various methods available for assessing stereoselectivity in drug metabolism, many of them have shortcomings. The indirect method of chromatographic methods can only be applicable to specific samples with functional groups to be derivatized or form complex with a chiral selector, while the direct method achieved by chiral stationary phases (CSPs is expensive. As a detector of chromatographic methods, mass spectrometry (MS is highly sensitive and specific, whereas the matrix interference is still a challenge to overcome. In addition, the use of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR and immunoassay in chiral analysis are worth noting. This review presents several typical examples of drug stereoselective metabolism and provides a literature-based evaluation on current chiral analytical techniques to show the significance and challenges of stereoselectivity assessing methods in drug metabolism.

Developing the RIAM method (rapid impact assessment matrix) in the context of impact significance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ijaes, Asko; Kuitunen, Markku T.; Jalava, Kimmo

2010-01-01

In this paper the applicability of the RIAM method (rapid impact assessment matrix) is evaluated in the context of impact significance assessment. The methodological issues considered in the study are: 1) to test the possibilities of enlarging the scoring system used in the method, and 2) to compare the significance classifications of RIAM and unaided decision-making to estimate the consistency between these methods. The data used consisted of projects for which funding had been applied for via the European Union's Regional Development Trust in the area of Central Finland. Cases were evaluated with respect to their environmental, social and economic impacts using an assessment panel. The results showed the scoring framework used in RIAM could be modified according to the problem situation at hand, which enhances its application potential. However the changes made in criteria B did not significantly affect the final ratings of the method, which indicates the high importance of criteria A1 (importance) and A2 (magnitude) to the overall results. The significance classes obtained by the two methods diverged notably. In general the ratings given by RIAM tended to be smaller compared to intuitive judgement implying that the RIAM method may be somewhat conservative in character.

Las consecuencias del cuidado familiar sobre el cuidador: Una valoración compleja y necesaria Consequences of family care over caregiver: A complex and necessary assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesús Rogero-García

2010-03-01

Full Text Available El cuidado provisto por familiares o amigos a los adultos dependientes es un proceso social decisivo para el bienestar de la sociedad española. Este tipo de apoyo tiene intensas consecuencias sobre quienes cuidan. En este artículo se plantea que la valoración precisa del impacto de la dependencia en el entorno social requiere de análisis comprensivos y multidisciplinares, y se elabora una propuesta de clasificación de las consecuencias del cuidado familiar sobre el cuidador. En dicha propuesta estos efectos pueden ser positivos o negativos, y afectar a diferentes dimensiones vitales de los cuidadores: salud, economía o relaciones sociales.Care provided by relatives or friends to dependent people is a key process to promote wellbeing in Spanish society. This type of support has intense consequences over caregivers' lives. Comprehensive and multidisciplinary analyses are required to assess dependency effects over social network. In this paper we elaborate a classification of types of family care consequences over caregivers. We differentiate between positive or negative consequences, and between consequences affecting caregivers' health, economy and/or social relations.

Scientific method, adversarial system, and technology assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Mayo, L. H.

1975-01-01

A basic framework is provided for the consideration of the purposes and techniques of scientific method and adversarial systems. Similarities and differences in these two techniques of inquiry are considered with reference to their relevance in the performance of assessments.

Development of a New Safety Culture Assessment Method for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) (A study to suggest a new safety culture assessment method in nuclear power plants)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Sang Min; Seong, Poong Hyun

2014-01-01

This study is conducted to suggest a new safety culture assessment method in nuclear power plants. Criteria with various existing safety culture analysis methods are united, and reliability analysis methods are applied. The concept of the most representative methods, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), are adopted to assess safety culture. Through this application, it is expected that the suggested method will bring results with convenience and objectiveness

Development of a New Safety Culture Assessment Method for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) (A study to suggest a new safety culture assessment method in nuclear power plants)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Han, Sang Min; Seong, Poong Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-08-15

This study is conducted to suggest a new safety culture assessment method in nuclear power plants. Criteria with various existing safety culture analysis methods are united, and reliability analysis methods are applied. The concept of the most representative methods, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), are adopted to assess safety culture. Through this application, it is expected that the suggested method will bring results with convenience and objectiveness.

Description and predictors of positive and negative alcohol-related consequences in the first year of college.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Nancy P; Clerkin, Elise M; Wood, Mark; Monti, Peter M; O'Leary Tevyaw, Tracy; Corriveau, Donald; Fingeret, Allan; Kahler, Christopher W

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to establish the frequency of positive and negative alcohol-related consequences during the first year of college and to evaluate gender, race/ethnicity, time of year, alcohol use, and intoxication as predictors of consequences using frequent assessments. Participants (N = 1,053; 57.5% female) completed biweekly assessments of alcohol use and positive and negative alcohol-related consequences throughout the year. The majority of drinkers reported both positive and negative consequences. Having a good time and feeling less stressed were the most commonly reported positive consequences. Blackouts and getting physically sick were the most commonly endorsed negative consequences. At the weekly level, number of drinking days, drinks per drinking day, and estimated blood alcohol concentration (eBAC, reflecting intoxication) were significantly related to all consequences after controlling for demographics and time of year. Negative consequences had stronger associations with number of drinks and eBAC than positive consequences did. With each additional drink consumed on a drinking day, the incidence of negative consequences more than doubled (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 2.34, 95% CI [2.19, 2.50]), whereas the incidence of positive consequences increased by about half (IRR = 1.51, 95% CI [1.47, 1.56]). The consequence with the largest gender difference was regretted sex, with women reporting it more often. Few racial/ethnic differences were found in report of negative consequences. Greater positive and negative consequences were endorsed at the beginning of both academic semesters. As number of drinks and eBAC increase, the relative odds of a negative consequence are higher than that of a positive consequence. Alcohol interventions could promote greater awareness of the likelihood of specific consequences and could highlight that positive consequences are associated with lower levels of drinking.

Delirium in cardiac surgery : A study on risk-assessment and long-term consequences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hogen-Koster, S.

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Delirium or acute confusion is a temporary mental disorder, which occurs frequently among hospitalized elderly patients. Patients who undergo cardiac surgery have an increased risk of developing delirium. Delirium is associated with many negative consequences. Therefore, prevention or

Gender matters: the relationship between social anxiety and alcohol-related consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Schry, Amie R; Norberg, Melissa M; Maddox, Brenna B; White, Susan W

2014-01-01

Identification of risk factors for alcohol-related consequences is an important public health concern. Both gender and social anxiety have been associated with alcohol-related consequences broadly, but it is unknown whether these variables are differentially related to specific types of alcohol-related consequences for American college students. In the present study, 573 undergraduate students (M(age) = 19.86 years, SD = 1.40; range 18 to 25; 68.9% female) completed an on-line assessment of social anxiety, alcohol use, and four types of alcohol-related consequences (personal, social, physical, and role). Poisson regressions were run to examine social anxiety, gender, and the interaction between social anxiety and gender as predictors of each type of alcohol-related consequences. After controlling for alcohol use, social anxiety was positively associated with all four types of consequences, and females endorsed higher rates of physical, personal, and role consequences. The interaction between social anxiety and gender was statistically significant only for physical consequences, with social anxiety having a stronger effect for males. These findings, which diverge somewhat from those of a prior study with Australian college students, are discussed in the context of a biopsychosocial model of social anxiety and substance use problems. This study highlights the importance of further investigating cultural differences in the relationships among social anxiety, gender, and alcohol-related consequences.

Assessing risk of draft survey by AHP method

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei

2018-04-01

The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Cooperative project on methods and techniques for assessment of ageing and safety of nuclear objects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bundara, B.; Udovc, M.; Cvelbar, R.; Vojvodic Tuma, J.; Celin, R.; Cizelj, L.; Simonovski, I.; Pirs, B.; Zabric, I.

2007-01-01

Nuclear Power Plants are so far the most demanding electric power plants concerning the extent and complexity of knowledge that is needed for design, construction, installation, safe operation and proper maintenance. For safe operation of the NPP it is important to have reliable inspection procedures and methods to detect the relevant defects in the components. It is also important to have effective techniques and efficient methodology that enable precise estimation of the material degradation and reliable prediction of the remaining period of the safe service of structures and components. During the operation of NPP its materials, structures and components are exposed to various impacts that have for the result changes in the material. Changes usually manifest as deviation from the origin (generally considered as defects) and can be observed at level of microstructure and/or at structural level. Defects are consequence of ageing and ageing is a consequence of mechanical, thermal, chemical, radiation induced and other processes. Complexity of the NPP and continuous operation at high level of safety demands extensive cooperation of researchers and engineers with different scientific and educational background. In the paper is discussed the importance of sufficient support to the NPP related research projects and the need for cooperation between institutes. As an example is presented the cooperative project that bands the research groups with different scientific background into complementary team working on multidisciplinary project focused on assessment of ageing and safety of nuclear objects. (author)

Anticipated affective consequences of physical activity adoption and maintenance.

Science.gov (United States)

Dunton, Genevieve Fridlund; Vaughan, Elaine

2008-11-01

The expected emotional consequences of future actions are thought to play an important role in health behavior change. This research examined whether anticipated affective consequences of success and failure vary across stages of physical activity change and differentially predict physical activity adoption as compared to maintenance. Using a prospective design over a 3-month period, a community sample of 329 healthy, middle-aged adults were assessed at 2 time points. Anticipated positive and negative emotions, stage of behavior change (precontemplation [PC], contemplation [C], preparation [P], action [A], maintenance [M]), and level of physical activity. At baseline, anticipated positive emotions were greater in C versus PC, whereas anticipated negative emotions were greater in M versus A and in M versus P. Higher anticipated positive but not negative emotions predicted physical activity adoption and maintenance after 3 months. Although the expected affective consequences of future success and failure differentiated among individuals in the early and later stages of physical activity change, respectively; only the anticipated affective consequences of success predicted future behavior.

Gender Matters: The Relationship between Social Anxiety and Alcohol-Related Consequences

OpenAIRE

Schry, Amie R.; Norberg, Melissa M.; Maddox, Brenna B.; White, Susan W.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Identification of risk factors for alcohol-related consequences is an important public health concern. Both gender and social anxiety have been associated with alcohol-related consequences broadly, but it is unknown whether these variables are differentially related to specific types of alcohol-related consequences for American college students. METHODS: In the present study, 573 undergraduate students (M(age) = 19.86 years, SD = 1.40; range 18 to 25; 68.9% female) ...

Land change in the Central Corn Belt Plains Ecoregion and hydrologic consequences in developed areas: 1939-2000

Science.gov (United States)

Karstensen, Krista; Shaver, David; Alexander, Randal; Over, Thomas; Soong, David T.

2013-01-01

This report emphasizes the importance of a multi-disciplinary understanding of how land use and land cover can affect regional hydrology by collaboratively investigating how increases in developed land area may affect stream discharge by evaluating land-cover change from 1939 to 2000, urban housing density data from 1940 to 2010, and changes in annual peak streamflow from water years 1945 to 2009. The results and methods crosscut two mission areas of the U.S. Geological Survey (Climate and Land Use, Water) and can be used to better assess developed land change and hydrologic consequences, which can be used to better assess future management and mitigation strategies.

Implementing shared decision-making: consider all the consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwyn, Glyn; Frosch, Dominick L; Kobrin, Sarah

2016-08-08

The ethical argument that shared decision-making is "the right" thing to do, however laudable, is unlikely to change how healthcare is organized, just as evidence alone will be an insufficient factor: practice change is governed by factors such as cost, profit margin, quality, and efficiency. It is helpful, therefore, when evaluating new approaches such as shared decision-making to conceptualize potential consequences in a way that is broad, long-term, and as relevant as possible to multiple stakeholders. Yet, so far, evaluation metrics for shared decision-making have been mostly focused on short-term outcomes, such as cognitive or affective consequences in patients. The goal of this article is to hypothesize a wider set of consequences, that apply over an extended time horizon, and include outcomes at interactional, team, organizational and system levels, and to call for future research to study these possible consequences. To date, many more studies have evaluated patient decision aids rather than other approaches to shared decision-making, and the outcomes measured have typically been focused on short-term cognitive and affective outcomes, for example knowledge and decisional conflict. From a clinicians perspective, the shared decision-making process could be viewed as either intrinsically rewarding and protective, or burdensome and impractical, yet studies have not focused on the impact on professionals, either positive or negative. At interactional levels, group, team, and microsystem, the potential long-term consequences could include the development of a culture where deliberation and collaboration are regarded as guiding principles, where patients are coached to assess the value of interventions, to trade-off benefits versus harms, and assess their burdens-in short, to new social norms in the clinical workplace. At organizational levels, consistent shared decision-making might boost patient experience evaluations and lead to fewer complaints and legal

Development of a Self-Rated Mixed Methods Skills Assessment: The NIH Mixed Methods Research Training Program for the Health Sciences

Science.gov (United States)

Guetterman, Timothy C.; Creswell, John W.; Wittink, Marsha; Barg, Fran K.; Castro, Felipe G.; Dahlberg, Britt; Watkins, Daphne C.; Deutsch, Charles; Gallo, Joseph J.

2017-01-01

Introduction Demand for training in mixed methods is high, with little research on faculty development or assessment in mixed methods. We describe the development of a Self-Rated Mixed Methods Skills Assessment and provide validity evidence. The instrument taps six research domains: “Research question,” “Design/approach,” “Sampling,” “Data collection,” “Analysis,” and “Dissemination.” Respondents are asked to rate their ability to define or explain concepts of mixed methods under each domain, their ability to apply the concepts to problems, and the extent to which they need to improve. Methods We administered the questionnaire to 145 faculty and students using an internet survey. We analyzed descriptive statistics and performance characteristics of the questionnaire using Cronbach’s alpha to assess reliability and an ANOVA that compared a mixed methods experience index with assessment scores to assess criterion-relatedness. Results Internal consistency reliability was high for the total set of items (.95) and adequate (>=.71) for all but one subscale. Consistent with establishing criterion validity, respondents who had more professional experiences with mixed methods (e.g., published a mixed methods paper) rated themselves as more skilled, which was statistically significant across the research domains. Discussion This Self-Rated Mixed Methods Assessment instrument may be a useful tool to assess skills in mixed methods for training programs. It can be applied widely at the graduate and faculty level. For the learner, assessment may lead to enhanced motivation to learn and training focused on self-identified needs. For faculty, the assessment may improve curriculum and course content planning. PMID:28562495

Accident consequence assessment and siting criteria development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kollas, J.G.

1988-01-01

The methodology developed is based on assessing the average over a large spectrum of meteorological conditions whole body collective dose resulting from a severe reference accident. The assessment of this dose is performed by code CRAC.GAEC, the Greek A.E.C. version of code CRAC2. The collective dose, which is chosen as a measure of the social radiation risk, is compared to the dose corresponding to a level of social risk encountered historically in energy production as a whole. The outcome of the comparison can be the determination of one or more sectors of acceptable sites for a set of specific conditions considered, such as the reactor characteristics. The present approach was aimed to deal with the problems stemming from the demographic idiomorphy of Greece, where one third of the country's population is concentrated in Athens, with the rest of the country exhibiting small population densities. One of the applications of the methodology developed concerned the identification of acceptable sites near Athens. For these sites the risk from the reference severe accident of a standard reactor to the over three millions inhabitants of Athens is less tan the risk corresponding to the same population that is due to energy production

Assessment of the consequences in premature loss of the temporary lower molars.

Science.gov (United States)

Petcu, Ana; Bălan, Adriana; Gavrilă, Laura Maria Vasilca; Savin, Carmen

2014-01-01

The consequences of premature loss of temporary teeth are complex, both of functional and morphological order and the clinical presentation depends on multiple factors: the temporary tooth loss rate as compared with permanent tooth eruption sequence and the number and topography of teeth extracted, so the clinical form of edentulous, which can be frontal or lateral, symmetric or asymmetric, isolated or continuous.

Antecedents and consequences of cannabis use among racially diverse cannabis users: an analysis from Ecological Momentary Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Buckner, Julia D; Zvolensky, Michael J; Crosby, Ross D; Wonderlich, Stephen A; Ecker, Anthony H; Richter, Ashley

2015-02-01

Cannabis remains the most commonly used illicit substance and use rates are rising. Notably, the prevalence of cannabis use disorders (CUD) nearly equals that of other illicit substance use disorders combined. Thus, the present study aimed to identify cognitive, affective, and situational predictors and consequences of ad-lib cannabis use in a racially diverse sample. The sample consisted of 93 current cannabis users (34.4% female; 57.1% non-Hispanic Caucasian), 87.1% of whom evinced a current CUD. Ecological Momentary Assessment was used to collect frequent ratings of cannabis withdrawal, craving, affect, cannabis use motives, and peer cannabis use over two weeks. Mixed effects linear models examined within- and between-day correlates and consequences of cannabis use. Withdrawal and craving were higher on cannabis use days than non-use days. Withdrawal, craving, and positive and negative affect were higher immediately prior to cannabis use compared to non-use episodes. Withdrawal and craving were higher among those who subsequently used cannabis than those who did not. Cannabis use resulted in less subsequent withdrawal, craving, and negative affect. Enhancement and coping motives were the most common reasons cited for use. Withdrawal and negative affect were related to using cannabis for coping motives and social motives. Participants were most likely to use cannabis if others were using, and withdrawal and craving were greater in social situations when others were using. Data support the contention that cannabis withdrawal and craving and affect and peer use play important roles in the maintenance of cannabis use. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of forward head posture in females: observational and photogrammetry methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Salahzadeh, Zahra; Maroufi, Nader; Ahmadi, Amir; Behtash, Hamid; Razmjoo, Arash; Gohari, Mahmoud; Parnianpour, Mohamad

2014-01-01

There are different methods to assess forward head posture (FHP) but the accuracy and discrimination ability of these methods are not clear. Here, we want to compare three postural angles for FHP assessment and also study the discrimination accuracy of three photogrammetric methods to differentiate groups categorized based on observational method. All Seventy-eight healthy female participants (23 ± 2.63 years), were classified into three groups: moderate-severe FHP, slight FHP and non FHP based on observational postural assessment rules. Applying three photogrammetric methods - craniovertebral angle, head title angle and head position angle - to measure FHP objectively. One - way ANOVA test showed a significant difference in three categorized group's craniovertebral angle (P< 0.05, F=83.07). There was no dramatic difference in head tilt angle and head position angle methods in three groups. According to Linear Discriminate Analysis (LDA) results, the canonical discriminant function (Wilks'Lambda) was 0.311 for craniovertebral angle with 79.5% of cross-validated grouped cases correctly classified. Our results showed that, craniovertebral angle method may discriminate the females with moderate-severe and non FHP more accurate than head position angle and head tilt angle. The photogrammetric method had excellent inter and intra rater reliability to assess the head and cervical posture.

Research on assessment methods for urban public transport development in China.

Science.gov (United States)