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Sample records for conscientiousness scales change

  1. The Conscientious Responders Scale Helps Researchers Verify the Integrity of Personality Questionnaire Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marjanovic, Zdravko; Bajkov, Lisa; MacDonald, Jennifer

    2018-01-01

    The Conscientious Responders Scale is a five-item embeddable validity scale that differentiates between conscientious and indiscriminate responding in personality-questionnaire data (CR & IR). This investigation presents further evidence of its validity and generalizability across two experiments. Study 1 tests its sensitivity to questionnaire length, a known cause of IR, and tries to provoke IR by manipulating psychological reactance. As expected, short questionnaires produced higher Conscientious Responders Scale scores than long questionnaires, and Conscientious Responders Scale scores were unaffected by reactance manipulations. Study 2 tests concerns that the Conscientious Responders Scale's unusual item content could potentially irritate and baffle responders, ironically increasing rates of IR. We administered two nearly identical questionnaires: one with an embedded Conscientious Responders Scale and one without the Conscientious Responders Scale. Psychometric comparisons revealed no differences across questionnaires' means, variances, interitem response consistencies, and Cronbach's alphas. In sum, the Conscientious Responders Scale is highly sensitive to questionnaire length-a known correlate of IR-and can be embedded harmlessly in questionnaires without provoking IR or changing the psychometrics of other measures.

  2. Theory-driven intervention for changing personality: expectancy value theory, behavioral activation, and conscientiousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magidson, Jessica F; Roberts, Brent W; Collado-Rodriguez, Anahi; Lejuez, C W

    2014-05-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that personality traits may be changeable, raising the possibility that personality traits most linked to health problems can be modified with intervention. A growing body of research suggests that problematic personality traits may be altered with behavioral intervention using a bottom-up approach. That is, by targeting core behaviors that underlie personality traits with the goal of engendering new, healthier patterns of behavior that, over time, become automatized and manifest in changes in personality traits. Nevertheless, a bottom-up model for changing personality traits is somewhat diffuse and requires clearer integration of theory and relevant interventions to enable real clinical application. As such, this article proposes a set of guiding principles for theory-driven modification of targeted personality traits using a bottom-up approach, focusing specifically on targeting the trait of conscientiousness using a relevant behavioral intervention, Behavioral Activation (BA), considered within the motivational framework of expectancy value theory (EVT). We conclude with a real case example of the application of BA to alter behaviors counter to conscientiousness in a substance-dependent patient, highlighting the EVT principles most relevant to the approach and the importance and viability of a theoretically driven, bottom-up approach to changing personality traits. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. The relation between conscientiousness, empowerment and performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riëtte Sutherland

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the relationship between conscientiousness, empowerment and job performance among information technology professionals. An Employee Empowerment Questionnaire (EEQ, a Conscientiousness Scale and a Social Desirability Scale were administered to 101 information technology customer service engineers. Managers completed a Performance Evaluation Questionnaire (PEQ for each customer service engineer. The results indicated a significant relationship between conscientiousness and empowerment. A curvilinear relationship was found between empowerment and performance. The practical and theoretical implications of the findings are discussed.

  4. Conscientiousness: Origins in Childhood?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenberg, Nancy; Duckworth, Angela L.; Spinrad, Tracy L.; Valiente, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    In this review, we evaluate developmental and personality research with the aim of determining whether the personality trait of conscientiousness can be identified in children and adolescents. After concluding that conscientiousness does emerge in childhood, we discuss the developmental origins of conscientiousness with a specific focus on…

  5. Conscientious objection: a call to nursing leadership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Natalie J; Fraser, Kimberly D; Marck, Patricia B

    2010-09-01

    In this paper we argue that nurse leaders need to work actively to create morally supportive environments for nurses in Canada that provide adequate room to exercise conscientious objection. Morally supportive environments engender a safe atmosphere to engage in open dialogue and action regarding conflict of conscience. The CNA's 2008 Code of Ethics for Registered Nurses has recognized the importance of conscientious objection in nursing and has created key guidelines for the registered nurse to follow when a conflict in conscience is being considered or declared. Nurse leaders need to further develop the understanding of conflicts of conscience through education, well-written guidelines for conscientious objection in workplaces and engagement in research to uncover underlying barriers to the enactment of conscientious objections. With advancements in technology, changing healthcare policies and increasing scope of practice, both reflection and dialogue on conscientious objection are critical for the continuing moral development of nurses in Canada.

  6. Enhancing criterion-related validity through bottom-up contextualization of personality inventories: The construction of an ecological conscientiousness scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr René Butter; Marise Born

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the concept of "ecological personality scales" is introduced. These are contextualized inventories with a high ecological validity. They are developed in a bottom-up or qualitative way and combine a relatively high trait specificity with a relatively high situational specificity. An

  7. [Medicine and conscientious objection].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, K

    2007-01-01

    Conscientious objection to democratically accepted laws in democratic societies is a fact, both among citizens and among professionals. Due respect for laws is a prima facie duty in these societies. But democratic justice must at the same time respect peoples' conscience for it constitutes the ethical identity of individuals. And both law and ethics are necessary - although neither of them is sufficient - for its realization. The problem of conscientious objection among healthcare professionals is analysed from this standpoint and the conclusion is that objection is not an absolute right to exemption from several duties, but that the responsibility of the professional and of the institutions towards the citizenry must always be taken into account. Some solutions are suggested that try to protect both the professionals and the citizens in a bi-directional way.

  8. Conscientiousness and obsessive-compulsive personality disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Douglas B; Widiger, Thomas A

    2011-07-01

    A dimensional perspective on personality disorder hypothesizes that the current diagnostic categories represent maladaptive variants of general personality traits. However, a fundamental foundation of this viewpoint is that dimensional models can adequately account for the pathology currently described by these categories. While most of the personality disorders have well established links to dimensional models that buttress this hypothesis, obsessive-compulsive personality disorder (OCPD) has obtained only inconsistent support. The current study administered multiple measures of 1) conscientiousness-related personality traits, 2) DSM-IV OCPD, and 3) specific components of OCPD (e.g., compulsivity and perfectionism) to a sample of 536 undergraduates who were oversampled for elevated OCPD scores. Six existing measures of conscientiousness-related personality traits converged strongly with each other supporting their assessment of a common trait. These measures of conscientiousness correlated highly with scales assessing specific components of OCPD, but obtained variable relationships with measures of DSM-IV OCPD. More specifically, there were differences within the conscientiousness instruments such that those designed to assess general personality functioning had small to medium relationships with OCPD, but those assessing more maladaptive variants obtained large effect sizes. These findings support the view that OCPD does represent a maladaptive variant of normal-range conscientiousness.

  9. Selecting for extroversion but rewarding for conscientiousness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiersma, Uco J.; Kappe, Rutger

    2017-01-01

    The causal effects of extroversion and conscientiousness, two Big Five personality dimensions, were assessed on both selection and work success in a naturally occurring field study. College students (N = 96) completed Neuroticism-Extroversion Openness Five-Factor Inventory personality scales during

  10. Adolescent conscientiousness predicts lower lifetime unemployment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egan, Mark; Daly, Michael; Delaney, Liam; Boyce, Christopher J; Wood, Alex M

    2017-04-01

    Existing research on Big Five personality and unemployment has relied on personality measures elicited after the respondents had already spent years in the labor market, an experience that could change personality. We clarify the direction of influence by using the British Cohort Study (N = 4,206) to examine whether conscientiousness and other Big Five personality traits at age 16-17 predict unemployment over age 16-42. Our hypothesis that higher conscientiousness in adolescence would predict lower unemployment was supported. In analyses controlling for intelligence, gender, and parental socioeconomic status, the less conscientious (-1 SD) had a predicted probability of unemployment twice as high (3.4% vs. 1.7%) as the highly conscientious (+1 SD), an effect size comparable to intelligence. Mediation analysis revealed that academic motivation and educational attainment explained only 8.9% of this association. Fostering conscientiousness in early life may be an effective way to reduce unemployment throughout adulthood. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. The conscientious retiree: The relationship between conscientiousness, retirement, and volunteering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mike, Anissa; Jackson, Joshua J.; Oltmanns, Thomas F.

    2015-01-01

    The current study examined the relationship between conscientiousness, work status, and volunteering utilizing two large samples, the St. Louis Personality and Aging Network (SPAN) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). It was hypothesized that conscientious adults who were retired would be more likely to volunteer because, after retirement, they gain a substantial amount of free time, while losing an outlet for their industrious and achievement-striving tendencies. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses revealed that conscientious, retired individuals were more likely to volunteer than conscientious, working individuals. Further analyses revealed that facets of conscientiousness provide differential information from the general trait. These findings indicate that volunteering during retirement fills an important niche for high-striving, conscientious individuals. PMID:25843985

  12. The conscientious retiree: The relationship between conscientiousness, retirement, and volunteering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mike, Anissa; Jackson, Joshua J; Oltmanns, Thomas F

    2014-10-01

    The current study examined the relationship between conscientiousness, work status, and volunteering utilizing two large samples, the St. Louis Personality and Aging Network (SPAN) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). It was hypothesized that conscientious adults who were retired would be more likely to volunteer because, after retirement, they gain a substantial amount of free time, while losing an outlet for their industrious and achievement-striving tendencies. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses revealed that conscientious, retired individuals were more likely to volunteer than conscientious, working individuals. Further analyses revealed that facets of conscientiousness provide differential information from the general trait. These findings indicate that volunteering during retirement fills an important niche for high-striving, conscientious individuals.

  13. Perceived social support predicts increased conscientiousness during older adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Patrick L; Payne, Brennan R; Jackson, Joshua J; Stine-Morrow, Elizabeth A L; Roberts, Brent W

    2014-07-01

    This study examined whether perceived social support predicted adaptive personality change in older adulthood, focusing on the trait of conscientiousness. We tested this hypothesis both at the broad domain level and with respect to the specific lower order facets that comprise conscientiousness: order, self-control, industriousness, responsibility, and traditionalism. A sample of 143 older adults (aged 60-91) completed measures of conscientiousness and social support during 2 assessments 7 months apart. Social support and conscientiousness were positively correlated among older adults. Moreover, older adults who perceived greater social support at baseline were more likely to gain in conscientiousness over time. The magnitude of this effect was relatively similar across the order, self-control, and industriousness facets. Perceived social support provides multiple benefits later in life, and the current results add to this literature by showing that it also promotes conscientiousness. As conscientiousness is linked to a variety of positive outcomes later in life, including health, future research should examine whether conscientiousness change may be an important mechanism through which social support enhances resilience in older adulthood. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Conscientious objection in health care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuře Josef

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with conscientious objection in health care, addressing the problems of scope, verification and limitation of such refusal, paying attention to ideological agendas hidden behind the right of conscience where the claimed refusal can cause harm or where such a claim is an attempt to impose certain moral values on society or an excuse for not providing health care. The nature of conscientious objection will be investigated and an ethical analysis of conscientious objection will be conducted. Finally some suggestions for health care policy will be proposed.

  15. The conscientious retiree: The relationship between conscientiousness, retirement, and volunteering

    OpenAIRE

    Mike, Anissa; Jackson, Joshua J.; Oltmanns, Thomas F.

    2014-01-01

    The current study examined the relationship between conscientiousness, work status, and volunteering utilizing two large samples, the St. Louis Personality and Aging Network (SPAN) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). It was hypothesized that conscientious adults who were retired would be more likely to volunteer because, after retirement, they gain a substantial amount of free time, while losing an outlet for their industrious and achievement-striving tendencies. Cross-sectional and lo...

  16. The Relationship between Resistance to Change and Romanian Teachers' Attitude towards Continuing Education: The Moderating Role of Conscientiousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palos, Ramona; Gunaru, Simona Alexandra

    2017-01-01

    Previous research highlights that personal factors are more important than contextual factors in explaining teachers' behaviours in relation to learning participation. The present study explores the relationship between two personal factors (dispositional resistance to change and teachers' attitude towards continuing education) and the moderating…

  17. Corruptive Tendencies, Conscientiousness, and Collectivism

    OpenAIRE

    Juneman Abraham; Murty Magda Pane

    2014-01-01

    This research investigated the relation between conscientiousness, collectivism, and corrupt tendency–which is represented by moral emotions (shame and guilt proneness). The study was conducted on 117 students (76 male, 41 female; M = 18.93 years old; SD = 1.67 years old) in Jakarta. The result shows that collectivism has positive predictive correlation with the tendency of not doing corruption and that conscientiousness is not able to predict corrupt tendencies. Collectivism of which every g...

  18. Conscientious objection to deceased organ donation by healthcare professionals

    OpenAIRE

    Shaw, David; Gardiner, Dale; Lewis, Penney; Jansen, Nichon; Wind, Tineke; Samuel, Undine; Georgieva, Denie; Ploeg, Rutger; Broderick, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we analyse the potential benefits and disadvantages of permitting healthcare professionals to invoke conscientious objection to deceased organ donation. There is some evidence that permitting doctors and nurses to register objections can ultimately lead to attitudinal change and acceptance of organ donation. However, while there may be grounds for conscientious objection in other cases such as abortion and euthanasia, the life-saving nature of donation and transplantation ren...

  19. rganizational features as situational strength: engaging the low-conscientious employee

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milam, A.

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the most robust findings in work psychology is the role that conscientiousness plays in performance; more recently, research indicates that conscientious employees are also the most engaged in their work. The present study examines whether the organization has any role in this relation, and if it is possible for individuals who are low in conscientiousness to also feel high levels of engagement. One hundred forty-one full-time Romanian workers and their peers, representing a variety of industries, were surveyed, revealing that features of the organization can actually attenuate the relation between conscientiousness and engagement. Specifically, when employees perceive that the organization is relatively formalized (i.e., where following rules is important, and in organizations where there is a perception that effort is rewarded, conscientiousness is not as strongly associated with engagement. These organizational features represent situational strength, and when situations are strong, scripts and rules tend to predict behavior, rather than personality. As such, it may be possible for low-conscientiousness individuals to actually become more engaged through organizational change. For those who are low in conscientiousness, for example, a formal work environment likely provides structure and decreases ambiguity, which aids in lower conscientious employees becoming more engaged. Similarly, when it is perceived that the organization rewards effort, those who are low in conscientiousness receive this reinforcement, and likely benefit the most, as their levels of engagement tend to approach those who are higher in conscientiousness.

  20. The relations between conscientiousness and mental health in a North-European and a West-Asian culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farahani, Mohammad-Naghy; Kormi-Nouri, Reza; De Raad, Boele

    2017-07-04

    The relationship between conscientiousness, mental health and mental illness has been an issue for the last two decades. By using a dual model of mental health, the present study examined a non-linear relationship between conscientiousness and healthy or non-healthy symptoms in two different cultures. Participants in this study were 296 Iranian and 310 Swedish university students (18-24 years of age). We used two different conscientiousness scales; the 12-item conscientiousness subscale of the NEO/FFI as an imported (etic) scale, and a 10-item Iranian conscientiousness scale as an indigenous (emic) and culture-dependent scale. In both conscientiousness scales, multivariate analysis of variance showed that conscientiousness differentiated among four mental health groups (languishing, troubled, symptomatic and flourishing), although languishing and troubled individuals were less conscientious than flourishing and symptomatic individuals. Furthermore, the non-healthy symptomatic individuals were more conscientiousness than flourishing individuals. The results showed no significant differences between the two cultures in terms of the four mental health categories. It was concluded that the relationship between conscientiousness and mental health/mental illness is more a non-linear relationship than a linear one.

  1. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  2. Conscientious objection to deceased organ donation by healthcare professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, David; Gardiner, Dale; Lewis, Penney; Jansen, Nichon; Wind, Tineke; Samuel, Undine; Georgieva, Denie; Ploeg, Rutger; Broderick, Andrew

    2018-02-01

    In this article, we analyse the potential benefits and disadvantages of permitting healthcare professionals to invoke conscientious objection to deceased organ donation. There is some evidence that permitting doctors and nurses to register objections can ultimately lead to attitudinal change and acceptance of organ donation. However, while there may be grounds for conscientious objection in other cases such as abortion and euthanasia, the life-saving nature of donation and transplantation renders objection in this context more difficult to justify. In general, dialogue between healthcare professionals is a more appropriate solution, and any objections must be justified with a strong rationale in hospitals where such policies are put in place.

  3. Do students learn to be more conscientious at medical school?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaytor Andrew T

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Professionalism in medical students is not only difficult to define but difficult to teach and measure. As negative behaviour in medical students is associated with post-graduate disciplinary action it would be useful to have a model whereby unprofessional behaviour at the undergraduate level can easily be identified to permit appropriate intervention. We have previously developed a scalar measure of conscientiousness, the Conscientiousness Index (CI, which positively correlates to estimates of professional behaviour in undergraduate medical students. By comparing CI points awarded in year 1 and year 2 of study we were able to use the CI model to determine whether teaching and clinical exposure had any effect on students’ conscientiousness. Methods CI points were collected by administrative staff from 3 successive cohorts of students in years 1 and 2 of study. Points were awarded to students for activities such as submission of immunisation status and criminal record checks, submission of summative assignments by a specified date and attendance at compulsory teaching sessions. CI points were then converted to a percentage of maximal possible scores (CI % to permit direct comparison between years 1 and 2 of study. Results CI % scores were generally high with each year of study for each cohort showing negatively skewed normal distributions with peaks > 89%. There was a high degree of correlation of CI % scores between year 1 and year 2 of study for each cohort alone and when cohort data was combined. When the change in CI % from year 1 to year 2 for all students was compared there was no significant difference in conscientiousness observed. Conclusions We have provided evidence that use of a CI model in undergraduate medical students provides a reliable measure of conscientiousness that is easy to implement. Importantly this study shows that measurement of conscientiousness by the CI model in medical students does not change

  4. Will Interventions Targeting Conscientiousness Improve Aging Outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    English, Tammy; Carstensen, Laura L.

    2014-01-01

    The articles appearing in this special section discuss the role that conscientiousness may play in healthy aging. Growing evidence suggests that conscientious individuals live longer and healthier lives. However, the question remains whether this personality trait can be leveraged to improve long-term health outcomes. We argue that even though it…

  5. The Legal Ethical Backbone of Conscientious Refusal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munthe, Christian; Nielsen, Morten Ebbe Juul

    2017-01-01

    This article analyzes the idea of a legal right to conscientious refusal for healthcare professionals from a basic legal ethical standpoint, using refusal to perform tasks related to legal abortion (in cases of voluntary employment) as a case in point. The idea of a legal right to conscientious...... refusal is distinguished from ideas regarding moral rights or reasons related to conscientious refusal, and none of the latter are found to support the notion of a legal right. Reasons for allowing some sort of room for conscientious refusal for healthcare professionals based on the importance of cultural...... identity and the fostering of a critical atmosphere might provide some support, if no countervailing factors apply. One such factor is that a legal right to healthcare professionals’ conscientious refusal must comply with basic legal ethical tenets regarding the rule of law and equal treatment...

  6. Work-family conflict and work engagement among mothers: Conscientiousness and neuroticism as moderators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracy J. Opie

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The job demand-resources model is utilised to investigate the moderating role of conscientiousness and neuroticism on the relationship between work-family conflict and work engagement. Motivation for the study: Working mothers are challenged to establish a balance between work and family life. The resulting work-family conflict can negatively affect well-being. It is thus necessary to explore personal factors that relate to work-family conflict, particularly in the South African context. Research design, approach and method: A quantitative, cross-sectional survey design was used. The sample (N = 267 was comprised of working mothers from several organisations. Data was gathered using the work-to-family conflict questionnaire, the Basic Traits Inventory and the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale. Main findings: The results indicated that work-family conflict negatively predicts work engagement. Conscientiousness positively predicts work engagement, and neuroticism negatively predicts work engagement. A significant interaction effect was found for conscientiousness but not for neuroticism. The findings showed that for participants with high levels of conscientiousness, work engagement decreases significantly more with an increase in work-family conflict than for participants with low levels of conscientiousness. Practical/Managerial implications: Organisations should consider those individuals who have high levels of conscientiousness and low levels of neuroticism in the selection and placement of employees. In addition, organisations have a responsibility to provide conscientious women, particularly mothers, with adequate support to ensure that work-family conflict does not adversely impact their levels of work engagement.

  7. The Effect of Response Style on Self-Reported Conscientiousness Across 20 Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Mõttus, René; Allik, Jüri; Realo, Anu; Rossier, Jérôme; Zecca, Gregory; Ah-Kion, Jennifer; Amoussou-Yéyé, Dénis; Bäckström, Martin; Barkauskiene, Rasa; Barry, Oumar; Bhowon, Uma; Björklund, Fredrik; Bochaver, Aleksandra; Bochaver, Konstantin; de Bruin, Gideon

    2012-01-01

    Rankings of countries on mean levels of self-reported Conscientiousness continue to puzzle researchers. Based on the hypothesis that cross-cultural differences in the tendency to prefer extreme response categories of ordinal rating scales over moderate categories can influence the comparability of self-reports, this study investigated possible effects of response style on the mean levels of self-reported Conscientiousness in 22 samples from 20 countries. Extreme and neutral responding were es...

  8. What do conscientious people do? Development and validation of the Behavioral Indicators of Conscientiousness (BIC)

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson, Joshua J.; Wood, Dustin; Bogg, Tim; Walton, Kate E.; Harms, Peter D.; Roberts, Brent W.

    2010-01-01

    Typical assessments of personality traits collapse behaviors, thoughts, and feelings into a single measure without distinguishing between these different manifestations. To address this lack of specification, the current study develops and validates a measure that assesses a number of broad behaviors associated with the personality trait of conscientiousness (the Behavioral Indicators of Conscientiousness; BIC). Findings suggest that the lower-order structure of conscientious behaviors is mos...

  9. Peranan Conscientiousness terhadap Perilaku Cyberloafing pada Mahasiswa

    OpenAIRE

    Fuadiah, Lu’lu’ul; Anward, Hemy Heryati; Erlyani, Neka

    2016-01-01

    The USAge of internet can have negative impacts on students, one of which is cyberloafing, the action of an individual using the internet access of an institution during the lecture hours for personal interests and other internet activities that are not related to the lectures. Cyberloafing influences some personality traits, such as conscientiousness. Students whose high level of conscientiousness can control their behavior to reach their goals and are not affected by personal desires and so...

  10. The Legal Ethical Backbone of Conscientious Refusal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munthe, Christian; Nielsen, Morten Ebbe Juul

    2017-01-01

    This article analyzes the idea of a legal right to conscientious refusal for healthcare professionals from a basic legal ethical standpoint, using refusal to perform tasks related to legal abortion (in cases of voluntary employment) as a case in point. The idea of a legal right to conscientious refusal is distinguished from ideas regarding moral rights or reasons related to conscientious refusal, and none of the latter are found to support the notion of a legal right. Reasons for allowing some sort of room for conscientious refusal for healthcare professionals based on the importance of cultural identity and the fostering of a critical atmosphere might provide some support, if no countervailing factors apply. One such factor is that a legal right to healthcare professionals' conscientious refusal must comply with basic legal ethical tenets regarding the rule of law and equal treatment, and this requirement is found to create serious problems for those wishing to defend the idea under consideration. We conclude that the notion of a legal right to conscientious refusal for any profession is either fundamentally incompatible with elementary legal ethical requirements, or implausible because it undermines the functioning of a related professional sector (healthcare) or even of society as a whole.

  11. Conscientiousness and Extraversion relate to responsiveness to tempo in dance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Emily; Burger, Birgitta; London, Justin; Thompson, Marc R; Toiviainen, Petri

    2016-10-01

    Previous research has shown broad relationships between personality and dance, but the relationship between personality and specific structural features of music has not been explored. The current study explores the influence of personality and trait empathy on dancers' responsiveness to small tempo differences between otherwise musically identical stimuli, measured by difference in the amount in acceleration of key joints. Thirty participants were recorded using motion capture while dancing to excerpts from six popular songs that were time-stretched to be slightly faster or slower than their original tempi. Analysis revealed that higher conscientiousness and lower extraversion both correlated with greater responsiveness to tempo change. Partial correlation analysis revealed that conscientiousness remained significantly correlated with responsiveness when extraversion was controlled, but not vice versa. No effect of empathy was found. Implications are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. What do conscientious people do? Development and validation of the Behavioral Indicators of Conscientiousness (BIC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Joshua J; Wood, Dustin; Bogg, Tim; Walton, Kate E; Harms, Peter D; Roberts, Brent W

    2010-08-01

    Typical assessments of personality traits collapse behaviors, thoughts, and feelings into a single measure without distinguishing between these different manifestations. To address this lack of specification, the current study develops and validates a measure that assesses a number of broad behaviors associated with the personality trait of conscientiousness (the Behavioral Indicators of Conscientiousness; BIC). Findings suggest that the lower-order structure of conscientious behaviors is mostly similar to the lower-order structure in extant trait measures. Furthermore, a daily diary method was used to validate the BIC against frequency counts of conscientious behavior. Overall, the results identify specific behaviors that conscientious individuals tend to perform and highlight possible advantages of this approach over broad trait assessment.

  13. Conscientious refusals and reason-giving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Jason

    2014-07-01

    Some philosophers have argued for what I call the reason-giving requirement for conscientious refusal in reproductive healthcare. According to this requirement, healthcare practitioners who conscientiously object to administering standard forms of treatment must have arguments to back up their conscience, arguments that are purely public in character. I argue that such a requirement, though attractive in some ways, faces an overlooked epistemic problem: it is either too easy or too difficult to satisfy in standard cases. I close by briefly considering whether a version of the reason-giving requirement can be salvaged despite this important difficulty. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Review Article Conscientious Objection and Reproductive Health ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However conscientious objection amongst the available few is a hitherto undocumented potential factor influencing access to health care in SSA. Provision of certain reproductive health services goes counter to some individual's religious and moral beliefs and practices. Health providers sometimes refuse to participate in or ...

  15. Ethics of large-scale change

    OpenAIRE

    Arler, Finn

    2006-01-01

      The subject of this paper is long-term large-scale changes in human society. Some very significant examples of large-scale change are presented: human population growth, human appropriation of land and primary production, the human use of fossil fuels, and climate change. The question is posed, which kind of attitude is appropriate when dealing with large-scale changes like these from an ethical point of view. Three kinds of approaches are discussed: Aldo Leopold's mountain thinking, th...

  16. Maladaptive variants of conscientiousness and agreeableness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Douglas B; Gore, Whitney L

    2012-12-01

    Although reasonably strong support has been obtained for the Five-Factor Model's (FFM) ability to account for the existing personality disorder (PD) constructs, the support for obsessive-compulsive PD (OCPD) and dependent PD (DPD) has been relatively less consistent. Specifically, the expected correlation between OCPD and the FFM trait of Conscientiousness has varied in magnitude across studies while DPD has, at times, also evinced rather weak relationships with FFM Agreeableness. We determined that these inconsistencies were due primarily to the reliance on FFM measures that lack adequate fidelity to assess the maladaptive aspects of high Conscientiousness and Agreeableness. When alternative measures were utilized, the correlations were generally large and in line with expectations. We conclude that OCPD and DPD can be fruitfully conceptualized within the FFM but encourage the use of measures that provide a comprehensive assessment of both the adaptive and maladaptive aspects of the FFM traits. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Personality © 2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Legal briefing: conscience clauses and conscientious refusal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Thaddeus Mason

    2010-01-01

    This issue's "Legal Briefing" column covers legal developments pertaining to conscience clauses and conscientious refusal. Not only has this topic been the subject of recent articles in this journal, but it has also been the subject of numerous public and professional discussions. Over the past several months, conscientious refusal disputes have had an unusually high profile not only in courthouses, but also in legislative and regulatory halls across the United States. Healthcare providers' own moral beliefs have been obstructing and are expected to increasingly obstruct patients' access to medical services. For example, some providers, on ethical or moral grounds, have denied: (1) sterilization procedures to pregnant patients, (2) pain medications in end-of-life situations, and (3) information about emergency contraception to rape victims. On the other hand, many healthcare providers have been forced to provide medical treatment that is inconsistent with their moral beliefs. There are two fundamental types of conscientious objection laws. First, there are laws that permit healthcare workers to refuse providing - on ethical, moral, or religious grounds healthcare services that they might otherwise have a legal or employer-mandated obligation to provide. Second, there are laws directed at forcing healthcare workers to provide services to which they might have ethical, moral, or religious objections. Both types of laws are rarely comprehensive, but instead target: (1) certain types of healthcare providers, (2) specific categories of healthcare services, (3) specific patient circumstances, and (4) certain conditions under which a right or obligation is triggered. For the sake of clarity, I have grouped recent legal developments concerning conscientious refusal into eight categories: 1. Abortion: right to refuse 2. Abortion: duty to provide 3. Contraception: right to refuse 4. Contraception: duty to provide 5. Sterilization: right to refuse 6. Fertility, HIV, vaccines

  18. The conscientious objection: debate on emergency contraception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanari Vergallo, G; Zaami, S; Di Luca, N M; Marinelli, E

    2017-01-01

    The authors discuss the emergency contraception (EC) topic, assessing scientific and ethical aspects. The almost totality of the studies carried out tends to report on the use of drugs as an emergency measure to prevent pregnancy. However, it is not yet completely excluded that emergency contraceptives can induce medical abortion. The debate on side effects of EC continues to be a highly emotional and controversial issue both for advocates who believe they will lower considerably the number of unintended pregnancies and abortions, and for opponents who believe that using emergency contraception amounts to an abortion. This latter hypothesis highlights the conflicting aspect of the conscientious objection to abortion of physicians and pharmacists. This research work is aimed at investigating the emergency contraception issue, paying particular attention to the medico-legal and regulatory aspects of this subject. Particularly, the authors focus on the conscientious objection in order to assess, if any, legal protection for physicians and pharmacists who claim a right to conscientious objection. Inappropriate use of EC could be resolved through a registry of user. This registry, of course, would not have the intention of persecution, but would only serve to detect possible cases of subjugation, exploitation and harassment.

  19. The Validity of Conscientiousness Is Overestimated in the Prediction of Job Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepes, Sven; McDaniel, Michael A

    2015-01-01

    Sensitivity analyses refer to investigations of the degree to which the results of a meta-analysis remain stable when conditions of the data or the analysis change. To the extent that results remain stable, one can refer to them as robust. Sensitivity analyses are rarely conducted in the organizational science literature. Despite conscientiousness being a valued predictor in employment selection, sensitivity analyses have not been conducted with respect to meta-analytic estimates of the correlation (i.e., validity) between conscientiousness and job performance. To address this deficiency, we reanalyzed the largest collection of conscientiousness validity data in the personnel selection literature and conducted a variety of sensitivity analyses. Publication bias analyses demonstrated that the validity of conscientiousness is moderately overestimated (by around 30%; a correlation difference of about .06). The misestimation of the validity appears to be due primarily to suppression of small effects sizes in the journal literature. These inflated validity estimates result in an overestimate of the dollar utility of personnel selection by millions of dollars and should be of considerable concern for organizations. The fields of management and applied psychology seldom conduct sensitivity analyses. Through the use of sensitivity analyses, this paper documents that the existing literature overestimates the validity of conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance. Our data show that effect sizes from journal articles are largely responsible for this overestimation.

  20. Conscientiousness Moderates the Relationship Between Perceived Stress and Depressive Symptoms Among U.S. Chinese Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yiwei; Peng, Yisheng; Ma, Xiaodong; Dong, Xinqi

    2017-07-01

    The present study examined whether individuals' personality traits, Neuroticism and Conscientiousness, moderated the relationship between perceived stress and depressive symptoms among U.S. Chinese older adults. Data analysis was based on the Population Study of Chinese Elderly in Chicago (PINE). Three thousand one hundred and fifty-nine Chinese adults aged 60 years and older participated in the PINE study. They completed scales that assessed their personality (ie, Neuroticism and Conscientiousness of the NEO Five-Factor Inventory), perceived stress (the Chinese Perceived Stress Scale), and depressive symptoms (the Patient Health Questionnaire). Perceived stress was positively related to depressive symptoms among U.S. Chinese older adults. No moderation effects were found for Neuroticism. Conscientiousness significantly moderated the perceived stress-depressive symptom relationship. The positive relationship between perceived stress and depressive symptoms was weaker for people who were higher in Conscientiousness than those who were lower in Conscientiousness. Conscientiousness mitigated the stress-depressive symptom relationship among U.S. Chinese older adults. Future research is needed to identify the psychological and sociocultural profiles of individuals who show stress resilience and those who are vulnerable. Social services and psychological interventions are needed to promote health and well-being among U.S. Chinese older adults. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. [Conscientious objection in the matter of abortion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano Gil, A; García Casado, M L

    1992-03-01

    The issue of conscientious objection in Spain has been used by pro-choice groups against objecting health personnel as one of the obstacles to the implementation of the abortion law, a misnomer. At present objection is massive in the public sector; 95% of abortions are carried out in private clinics with highly lucrative returns; abortion tourism has decreased; and false objection has proliferated in the public sector when the objector performs abortions in the private sector for high fees. The legal framework for conscientious objection is absent in Spain. Neither Article 417 of the Penal Code depenalizing abortion, nor the Ministerial Decree of July 31, 1985, nor the Royal Decree of November 21, 1986 recognize such a concept. However, the ruling of the Constitutional Court on April 11, 1985 confirmed that such objection can be exercised with independence. Some authors refer to the applicability of Law No. 48 of December 16, 1984 that regulates conscientious objection in military service to health personnel. The future law concerning the fundamental right of ideological and religious liberty embodied in Article 16.1 of the Constitution has to be revised. A draft bill was submitted in the Congress or Representatives concerning this issue on May 3, 1985 that recognizes the right of medical personnel to object to abortion without career repercussions. Another draft bill was introduced on April 17, 1985 that would allow the nonparticipation of medical personnel in the interruption of pregnancy, however, they would be prohibited from practicing such in the private hospitals. Neither of these proposed bills became law. Professional groups either object unequivocally, or do not object at all, or object on an ethical level but do not object to therapeutic abortion. The resolution of this issue has to be by consensus and not by imposition.

  2. Conscientious personality and young drivers’ crash risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehsani, Johnathon P.; Li, Kaigang; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Tree-McGrath, Cheyenne Fox; Perlus, Jessamyn; O’Brien, Fearghal; Klauer, Sheila G.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Personality characteristics are associated with many risk behaviors. However, the relationship between personality traits, risky driving behavior, and crash risk is poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between personality, risky driving behavior and crashes and near-crashes, using naturalistic driving research methods. Method Participants’ driving exposure, kinematic risky driving (KRD), high-risk secondary task engagement, and the frequency of crashes and near-crashes (CNC) were assessed over the first 18 months of licensure using naturalistic driving methods. A personality survey (NEO-Five Factor Inventory) was administered at baseline. The association between personality characteristics, KRD rate, secondary task engagement rate and CNC rate was estimated using a linear regression model. Mediation analysis was conducted to examine if participants’ KRD rate or secondary task engagement rate mediated the relationship between personality and CNC. Data were collected as part of the Naturalistic Teen Driving Study. Results Conscientiousness was marginally negatively associated with CNC (path c = −0.034, p = .09) and both potential mediators KRD (path a = −0.040, p = .09) and secondary task engagement while driving (path a = −0.053, p = .03). KRD, but not secondary task engagement, was found to mediate (path b = 0.376, p = .02) the relationship between conscientiousness and CNC (path c’ = −0.025, p = .20). Conclusions Using objective measures of driving behavior and a widely used personality construct, these findings present a causal pathway through which personality and risky driving are associated with CNC. Specifically, more conscientious teenage drivers engaged in fewer risky driving maneuvers, suffered fewer CNC. Practical Applications Part of the variability in crash-risk observed among newly licensed teenage drivers can be explained by personality. Parents and driving instructors may take teenage

  3. Conscientious personality and young drivers' crash risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehsani, Johnathon P; Li, Kaigang; Simons-Morton, Bruce G; Fox Tree-McGrath, Cheyenne; Perlus, Jessamyn G; O'Brien, Fearghal; Klauer, Sheila G

    2015-09-01

    Personality characteristics are associated with many risk behaviors. However, the relationship between personality traits, risky driving behavior, and crash risk is poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between personality, risky driving behavior, and crashes and near-crashes, using naturalistic driving research methods. Participants' driving exposure, kinematic risky driving (KRD), high-risk secondary task engagement, and the frequency of crashes and near-crashes (CNC) were assessed over the first 18months of licensure using naturalistic driving methods. A personality survey (NEO-Five Factor Inventory) was administered at baseline. The association between personality characteristics, KRD rate, secondary task engagement rate, and CNC rate was estimated using a linear regression model. Mediation analysis was conducted to examine if participants' KRD rate or secondary task engagement rate mediated the relationship between personality and CNC. Data were collected as part of the Naturalistic Teen Driving Study. Conscientiousness was marginally negatively associated with CNC (path c=-0.034, p=.09) and both potential mediators KRD (path a=-0.040, p=.09) and secondary task engagement while driving (path a=-0.053, p=.03). KRD, but not secondary task engagement, was found to mediate (path b=0.376, p=.02) the relationship between conscientiousness and CNC (path c'=-0.025, p=.20). Using objective measures of driving behavior and a widely used personality construct, these findings present a causal pathway through which personality and risky driving are associated with CNC. Specifically, more conscientious teenage drivers engaged in fewer risky driving maneuvers, and suffered fewer CNC. Part of the variability in crash risk observed among newly licensed teenage drivers can be explained by personality. Parents and driving instructors may take teenage drivers' personality into account when providing guidance, and establishing norms and

  4. Uncovering curvilinear relationships between conscientiousness and job performance: how theoretically appropriate measurement makes an empirical difference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Nathan T; Dalal, Dev K; Boyce, Anthony S; O'Connell, Matthew S; Kung, Mei-Chuan; Delgado, Kristin M

    2014-07-01

    The personality trait of conscientiousness has seen considerable attention from applied psychologists due to its efficacy for predicting job performance across performance dimensions and occupations. However, recent theoretical and empirical developments have questioned the assumption that more conscientiousness always results in better job performance, suggesting a curvilinear link between the 2. Despite these developments, the results of studies directly testing the idea have been mixed. Here, we propose this link has been obscured by another pervasive assumption known as the dominance model of measurement: that higher scores on traditional personality measures always indicate higher levels of conscientiousness. Recent research suggests dominance models show inferior fit to personality test scores as compared to ideal point models that allow for curvilinear relationships between traits and scores. Using data from 2 different samples of job incumbents, we show the rank-order changes that result from using an ideal point model expose a curvilinear link between conscientiousness and job performance 100% of the time, whereas results using dominance models show mixed results, similar to the current state of the literature. Finally, with an independent cross-validation sample, we show that selection based on predicted performance using ideal point scores results in more favorable objective hiring outcomes. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.

  5. Conscientious objection or fear of social stigma and unawareness of ethical obligations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faúndes, Anibal; Duarte, Graciana Alves; Osis, Maria José Duarte

    2013-12-01

    Conscientious objection is a legitimate right of physicians to reject the practice of actions that violate their ethical or moral principles. The application of that principle is being used in many countries as a justification to deny safe abortion care to women who have the legal right to have access to safe termination of pregnancy. The problem is that, often, this concept is abused by physicians who camouflage under the guise of conscientious objection their fear of experiencing discrimination and social stigma if they perform legal abortions. These colleagues seem to ignore the ethical principle that the primary conscientious duty of OB/GYNs is-at all times-to treat, or provide benefit and prevent harm to, the patients for whose care they are responsible. Any conscientious objection to treating a patient is secondary to this primary duty. One of the jobs of the FIGO Working Group for the Prevention of Unsafe Abortion is to change this paradigm and make our colleagues proud of providing legal abortion services that protect women's life and health, and concerned about disrespecting the human rights of women and professional ethical principles. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The BMA's guidance on conscientious objection may be contrary to human rights law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adenitire, John Olusegun

    2017-04-01

    It is argued that the current policy of the British Medical Association (BMA) on conscientious objection is not aligned with recent human rights developments. These grant a right to conscientious objection to doctors in many more circumstances than the very few recognised by the BMA. However, this wide-ranging right may be overridden if the refusal to accommodate the conscientious objection is proportionate. It is shown that it is very likely that it is lawful to refuse to accommodate conscientious objections that would result in discrimination of protected groups. It is still uncertain, however, in what particular circumstances the objection may be lawfully refused, if it poses risks to the health and safety of patients. The BMA's policy has not caught up with these human rights developments and ought to be changed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  7. Ethics of large-scale change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arler, Finn

    2006-01-01

    , which kind of attitude is appropriate when dealing with large-scale changes like these from an ethical point of view. Three kinds of approaches are discussed: Aldo Leopold's mountain thinking, the neoclassical economists' approach, and finally the so-called Concentric Circle Theories approach...

  8. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adger, W.N.; Arnell, N.W.; University of Southampton; Tompkins, E.L.; University of East Anglia, Norwich; University of Southampton

    2005-01-01

    Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes. (author)

  9. Conscientious objection to military service in international human rights instruments

    OpenAIRE

    Kavaliauskaitė, Ernesta

    2010-01-01

    Current debates on conscientious objection to military service reveal a conflict between conscription and individual freedom of conscience; they question the scope of human rights and liberties as well as raise an issue of their extension. The majority of member states of UN and CoE officially recognize a right to conscientious objection. However, the flow of complaints to international human rights monitoring bodies demonstrates absence of a general consensus on the concept, origin and legal...

  10. Attitudes towards conscientious objection among community pharmacists in Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Piecuch, Anna; Gryka, Malwina; Kozłowska-Wojciechowska, Małgorzata

    2013-01-01

    Background The European Council Resolution 1763 (2010), “The right to conscientious objection in lawful medical care”, provoked a discussion among Polish pharmacists on the necessity for granting them the right to refuse to dispense medicinal products which invoke conscientious objection. Objective To explore attitudes of Polish pharmacists towards the conscience clause. Setting Pharmacies with public e-mail addresses in various parts of Poland (Lower Silesia Province, Mazovia Province, Kuyav...

  11. Do Standardized Tests Penalize Deep-Thinking, Creative, or Conscientious Students?: Some Personality Correlates of Graduate Record Examinations Test Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Donald E.; Kaufman, James C.

    2004-01-01

    The objective of the study reported here was to explore the relationship of Graduate Record Examinations (GRE) General Test scores to selected personality traits--conscientiousness, rationality, ingenuity, quickness, creativity, and depth. A sample of 342 GRE test takers completed short personality inventory scales for each trait. Analyses…

  12. Conscientious objection in medical students: a questionnaire survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, Sophie Lm

    2012-01-01

    To explore attitudes towards conscientious objections among medical students in the UK. Medical students at St George's University of London, Cardiff University, King's College London and Leeds University were emailed a link to an anonymous online questionnaire, hosted by an online survey company. The questionnaire contained nine questions. A total of 733 medical students responded. Nearly half of the students in this survey stated that they believed in the right of doctors to conscientiously object to any procedure. Demand for the right to conscientiously object is greater in Muslim medical students when compared with other groups of religious medical students. Abortion continues to be a contentious issue among medical students and this may contribute to the looming crisis in abortion services over the coming years. This project sheds some light on how future doctors view some of their ethical rights and obligations. Using empirical evidence, it reveals that conscientious objection is an issue in the UK medical student body today. These data could help anticipate problems that may arise when these medical students qualify and practise medicine in the community. Clearer guidance is needed for medical students about the issue of conscientious objection at medical school.

  13. Mistakes and missed opportunities regarding cosmetic surgery and conscientious objection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Toni C

    2017-04-24

    In her paper 'Cosmetic surgery and conscientious objection', Minerva rightly identifies cosmetic surgery as an interesting test case for the question of conscientious objection in medicine. Her treatment of this important subject, however, seems problematic. It is argued that Minerva's suggestion that a doctor has a prima facie duty to satisfy patient preferences even against his better clinical judgment, which we call Patient Preference Absolutism, must be regarded with scepticism. This is because (1) it overlooks an important distinction regarding autonomy's meaning and place in clinical practice, and (2) it makes obsolete the important concepts of expert clinical judgment and beneficence. Finally, we discuss two ideas which emerge from consideration of cosmetic surgery in relation to conscientious objection. These are the possible analogy between clinical judgment and conscientious objection, and the possible role the goals of medicine can play in defining the scope of conscientious objection. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  14. Toward accommodating physicians' conscientious objections: an argument for public disclosure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harter, Thomas D

    2015-03-01

    This paper aims to demonstrate how public disclosure can be used to balance physicians' conscientious objections with their professional obligations to patients--specifically respect for patient autonomy and informed consent. It is argued here that physicians should be permitted to exercise conscientious objections, but that they have a professional obligation to provide advance notification to patients about those objections. It is further argued here that public disclosure is an appropriate and ethically justifiable limit to the principle of advance notification. The argument for publicly disclosing physicians' conscientious objections is made in this paper by discussing three practical benefits of public disclosure in medicine, and then addressing how publicly disclosing physicians' conscientious objections is not an undue invasion of privacy. Three additional concerns with public disclosure of physicians' conscientious objections are briefly addressed--potential harassment of physicians, workplace discrimination, and mischaracterising physicians' professional aptitude--concluding that each of these concerns requires further deliberation in the realm of business ethics. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  15. Self-compassion and relationship maintenance: the moderating roles of conscientiousness and gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Levi R; McNulty, James K

    2011-05-01

    Should intimates respond to their interpersonal mistakes with self-criticism or with self-compassion? Although it is reasonable to expect self-compassion to benefit relationships by promoting self-esteem, it is also reasonable to expect self-compassion to hurt relationships by removing intimates' motivation to correct their interpersonal mistakes. Two correlational studies, 1 experiment, and 1 longitudinal study demonstrated that whether self-compassion helps or hurts relationships depends on the presence versus absence of dispositional sources of the motivation to correct interpersonal mistakes. Among men, the implications of self-compassion were moderated by conscientiousness. Among men high in conscientiousness, self-compassion was associated with greater motivation to correct interpersonal mistakes (Studies 1 and 3), observations of more constructive problem-solving behaviors (Study 2), reports of more accommodation (Study 3), and fewer declines in marital satisfaction that were mediated by decreases in interpersonal problem severity (Study 4); among men low in conscientiousness, self-compassion was associated with these outcomes in the opposite direction. Among women, in contrast, likely because women are inherently more motivated than men to preserve their relationships for cultural and/or biological reasons, self-compassion was never harmful to the relationship. Instead, women's self-compassion was positively associated with the motivation to correct their interpersonal mistakes (Study 1) and changes in relationship satisfaction (Study 4), regardless of conscientiousness. Accordingly, theoretical descriptions of the implications of self-promoting thoughts for relationships may be most complete to the extent that they consider the presence versus absence of other sources of the motivation to correct interpersonal mistakes. (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. Self-Compassion and Relationship Maintenance: The Moderating Roles of Conscientiousness and Gender

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Levi; McNulty, James K.

    2010-01-01

    Should intimates respond to their interpersonal mistakes with self-criticism or with self-compassion? Although it is reasonable to expect self-compassion to benefit relationships by promoting self-esteem, it is also reasonable to expect self-compassion to hurt relationships by removing intimates’ motivation to correct their interpersonal mistakes. Two correlational studies, 1 experiment, and 1 longitudinal study demonstrated that whether self-compassion helps or hurts relationships depends on the presence versus absence of dispositional sources of the motivation to correct interpersonal mistakes. Among men, the implications of self-compassion were moderated by conscientiousness. Among men high in conscientiousness, self-compassion was associated with greater motivation to correct interpersonal mistakes (Studies 1 and 3), observations of more-constructive problem-solving behaviors (Study 2), reports of more accommodation (Study 3), and fewer declines in marital satisfaction that were mediated by decreases in interpersonal problem severity (Study 4); among men low in conscientiousness, self-compassion was associated with these outcomes in the opposite direction. Among women, in contrast, likely because women are inherently more motivated than men to preserve their relationships for cultural and/or biological reasons, self-compassion was never harmful to the relationship. Instead, women’s self-compassion was positively associated with the motivation to correct their interpersonal mistakes (Study 1) and changes in relationship satisfaction (Study 4), regardless of conscientiousness. Accordingly, theoretical descriptions of the implications of self-promoting thoughts for relationships may be most complete to the extent that they consider the presence versus absence of other sources of the motivation to correct interpersonal mistakes. PMID:21280964

  17. Social and legal dimensions discussion of conscientious refusal in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şeniz ANBARLI BOZATAY

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Even though the discussion of conscientious objection, the refusal of military service due to individual’s moral values or religious beliefs, is new in Turkey, the subject has become the focus of intense interest. The discussion of conscientious objection in Turkey has come the to the fore with the heated debates between the glorification of the dynamics of Turkish social structure towards military service and the critique of militarism and conscientious objection’s legal dimensions, as well. Since the reduction of discussions in this context in Turkey to the legal dimension is the ignorance of social reality constituting basis to the legal dimension, the subject is examined with reference to the social and historical outlook on this issue and the study is built on dimensions.

  18. Work engagement, performance and active learning : the role of conscientiousness.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, A.B.; Demerouti, E.; Ten Brummelhuis, L.L.

    2012-01-01

    The present study examines whether the relationship between work engagement and job performance is moderated by the extent to which individuals are inclined to work hard, careful, and goal-oriented. On the basis of the literature, it was hypothesized that conscientiousness strengthens the

  19. Conscientious Consumerism Project in an Undergraduate Quality Management Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helms, Marilyn M.

    2014-01-01

    This article describes a "conscientious consumerism" project that involves the student as the consumer to either commend or complain to a company about a recent product or service experience. This activity and presentation helps students develop an understanding of the commendation/complaint management process within organizations while…

  20. Work Engagement, Performance, and Active Learning: The Role of Conscientiousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Arnold B.; Demerouti, Evangelia; ten Brummelhuis, Lieke L.

    2012-01-01

    The present study examines whether the relationship between work engagement and job performance is moderated by the extent to which individuals are inclined to work hard, careful, and goal-oriented. On the basis of the literature, it was hypothesized that conscientiousness strengthens the relationship between work engagement and supervisor ratings…

  1. Personality predictors of longevity: activity, emotional stability, and conscientiousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terracciano, Antonio; Löckenhoff, Corinna E; Zonderman, Alan B; Ferrucci, Luigi; Costa, Paul T

    2008-07-01

    To examine the association between personality traits and longevity. Using the Guilford-Zimmerman Temperament Survey, personality traits were assessed in 2359 participants (38% women; age = 17 to 98 years, mean = 50 years) from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, starting in 1958. Over the duration of the study, 943 (40%) participants died, on average 18 years after their personality assessment. The association of each trait with longevity was examined by Cox regression controlling for demographic variables. In preliminary analyses among the deceased, those who scored 1 standard deviation (SD) above the mean on General Activity (a facet of Extraversion), Emotional Stability (low Neuroticism), or Conscientiousness lived on average 2 to 3 years longer than those scoring 1 SD below the mean. Survival analyses on the full sample confirmed the association of General Activity, Emotional Stability, and Conscientiousness with lower risk of death, such that every 1-SD increase was related to about 13%, 15%, and 27% risk reduction, respectively. The association of personality traits with longevity was largely independent from the influence of smoking and obesity. Personality predictors of longevity did not differ by sex, except for Ascendance (a facet of Extraversion). Emotional Stability was a significant predictor when the analyses were limited to deaths due to cardiovascular disease, with comparable effect sizes for General Activity and Conscientiousness. In a large sample of generally healthy individuals followed for almost five decades, longevity was associated with being conscientious, emotionally stable, and active.

  2. Personality predictors of longevity: Activity, Emotional Stability, and Conscientiousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terracciano, Antonio; Löckenhoff, Corinna E.; Zonderman, Alan B.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Costa, Paul T.

    2008-01-01

    Objective To examine the association between personality traits and longevity. Methods Using the Guilford-Zimmerman Temperament Survey, personality traits were assessed in 2359 participants (38% women; age: 17 to 98 years, M = 50) from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA), starting in 1958. Over the duration of the study, 943 (40%) participants died, on average 18 years after their personality assessment. The association of each trait with longevity was examined by Cox regression controlling for demographic variables. Results In preliminary analyses among the deceased, those who scored one SD above the mean on General Activity (a facet of Extraversion), Emotional Stability (low Neuroticism), or Conscientiousness lived on average two to three years longer than those scoring one SD below the mean. Survival analyses on the full sample confirmed the association of General Activity, Emotional Stability, and Conscientiousness with lower risk of death, such that every one SD increase was related to about 13%, 15%, and 27% risk reduction, respectively. The association of personality traits with longevity was largely independent from the influence of smoking and obesity. Personality predictors of longevity did not differ by sex, except for Ascendance (a facet of Extraversion). Emotional Stability was a significant predictor when the analyses were limited to deaths due to cardiovascular disease, with comparable effect sizes for General Activity and Conscientiousness. Conclusions In a large sample of generally healthy individuals followed for almost five decades, longevity was associated with being conscientious, emotionally stable, and active. PMID:18596250

  3. Conscientious objection and legal abortion in South Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It is submitted that whilst the Choice on Termination of Pregnancy Act fails to provide the principles for determining the limits of the right to conscientious ... 'n Reg op gewetensbeswaar teen deelname aan vrugafdrywingsprosedures is egter implisiet in artikel 15 van die Grondwet van die Republiek van Suid-Afrika vervat.

  4. Attitudes towards conscientious objection among community pharmacists in Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piecuch, Anna; Gryka, Malwina; Kozłowska-Wojciechowska, Małgorzata

    2014-04-01

    The European Council Resolution 1763 (2010), ‘‘The right to conscientious objection in lawful medical care’’, provoked a discussion among Polish pharmacists on the necessity for granting them the right to refuse to dispense medicinal products which invoke conscientious objection. To explore attitudes of Polish pharmacists towards the conscience clause. Pharmacies with public e-mail addresses in various parts of Poland (Lower Silesia Province, Mazovia Province, Kuyavia-Pomerania Province, and West Pomeranian Province). An online survey questionnaire addressed to 1,454 pharmacies. The participants were asked 8 questions,including a question addressed only to pharmacy managers and owners. Attitudes towards the right to conscientious objection for pharmacists. Ultimately, responses of 126 pharmacists (83 women, 43 men, average age-39 years of age) were taken into consideration. Most participants (92 %) have never refused to fill a prescription due to their beliefs; however, 15 % of participants state that if the conscience clause were legally sanctioned, they would exercise this right. Most participants(73 %) think that pharmacists should not have the right to conscientious objection. Almost half of participants who support implementation of the conscience clause would grant this right to pharmacists on a conditional basis, if the pharmacists were obliged to present other real options to the patient about obtaining a specific product. Pharmacists are rather reluctant to the idea of implementing the conscience clause, but despite a clear majority of its opponents, there seems to be a necessity for introducing such a regulation.

  5. Uncovering the Affective Core of Conscientiousness: The Role of Self-Conscious Emotions

    OpenAIRE

    Fayard, Jennifer V.; Roberts, Brent W.; Robins, Richard W.; Watson, David

    2012-01-01

    We conducted 3 studies to test the idea that guilt is a key affective component of Conscientiousness and that it can account for the relation between Conscientiousness and negative affect. Study 1 used meta-analysis to show that Conscientiousness was associated with specific emotions and overall negative affect but was most strongly associated with guilt. Conscientiousness was negatively related to guilt experience but positively related to guilt proneness. Also, guilt experience mediated the...

  6. [Conscientious objection for health professionals in ethics and deontology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez León, Mercedes; Rabadán Jiménez, José

    2010-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to highlight the numerous conflicts enters the consciousness and the laws are becoming more frequent health professionals in daily clinical practice. Clarify and define concepts such as ″conscientious objection for health professionals, to avoid confusion with other terms. This is work that aims to address the objection of conscience, not from the law but from the ethics and deontology, reviewing existing regulations both internationally and nationally. In addition to complete the studio, in a last part we discuss the state of the ″conscientious objection″ tars the recent passage of the organic law 2 / 2010, 3 march, sexual and reproductive health and the interruption of pregnancy. As a final conclusion we can say that ″conscientious objection″ is recognized in international declarations and even in the european constitution. in spain, the code of ethics and medical ethics, is one of the places where the objection of conscience of health professionals has great development for years, states that the doctor can refrain from the practice of certain professional acts such as abortion, in vitro fertilization or sterilization, if they are in contradiction with its ethical and scientific beliefs. Also recently, the general assembly of october 24, 2009, the central committee of ethics has made a declaration on ″conscientious objection″, insisting on its recognition. Finally, the organic law 2 / 2010, 3 march, sexual and reproductive health and the interruption of pregnancy, seems to be recognized ″the right to exercise conscientious objection″ of health professionals directly involved in the voluntary termination of pregnancy, after much discussion, but it is still early to assess the implementation of this right because, until july 5, 2010, will come into force this law, what will the future that we clarify the development of this important right for health professionals.

  7. Development of a Conceptual Model and Survey Instrument to Measure Conscientious Objection to Abortion Provision.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Florence Harris

    Full Text Available Conscientious objection to abortion, clinicians' refusal to perform legal abortions because of their religious or moral beliefs, has been the subject of increasing debate among bioethicists, policymakers, and public health advocates in recent years. Conscientious objection policies are intended to balance reproductive rights and clinicians' beliefs. However, in practice, clinician objection can act as a barrier to abortion access-impinging on reproductive rights, and increasing unsafe abortion and related morbidity and mortality. There is little information about conscientious objection from a medical or public health perspective. A quantitative instrument is needed to assess prevalence of conscientious objection and to provide insight on its practice. This paper describes the development of a survey instrument to measure conscientious objection to abortion provision.A literature review, and in-depth formative interviews with stakeholders in Colombia were used to develop a conceptual model of conscientious objection. This model led to the development of a survey, which was piloted, and then administered, in Ghana.The model posits three domains of conscientious objection that form the basis for the survey instrument: 1 beliefs about abortion and conscientious objection; 2 actions related to conscientious objection and abortion; and 3 self-identification as a conscientious objector.The instrument is intended to be used to assess prevalence among clinicians trained to provide abortions, and to gain insight on how conscientious objection is practiced in a variety of settings. Its results can inform more effective and appropriate strategies to regulate conscientious objection.

  8. Job characteristics, flow, and performance: the moderating role of conscientiousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demerouti, Evangelia

    2006-07-01

    The present article aims to show the importance of positive work-related experiences within occupational health psychology by examining the relationship between flow at work (i.e., absorption, work enjoyment, and intrinsic work motivation) and job performance. On the basis of the literature, it was hypothesized that (a) motivating job characteristics are positively related to flow at work and (b) conscientiousness moderates the relationship between flow and other ratings of (in-role and out-of-role) performance. The hypotheses were tested on a sample of 113 employees from several occupations. Results of moderated structural equation modeling analyses generally supported the hypotheses. Motivating job characteristics were predictive of flow, and flow predicted in-role and extra-role performance, for only conscientious employees.

  9. Chapter 3: Climate change at multiple scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constance Millar; Ron Neilson; Dominique Bachelet; Ray Drapek; Jim Lenihan

    2006-01-01

    Concepts about the natural world influence approaches to forest management. In the popular press, climate change inevitably refers to global warming, greenhouse gas impacts, novel anthropogenic (human-induced) threats, and international politics. There is, however, a larger context that informs our understanding of changes that are occurring - that is, Earth’...

  10. Conscientious Objectors and the Marrying Kind : Rights and Rites in Dutch Public Discourse on Marriage Registrars with Conscientious Objections against Conducting Same-Sex Weddings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Derks, M.

    2017-01-01

    The opening up of civil marriage to same-sex couples in the Netherlands in 2001 and the existing legal recognition of conscientious objections among civil servants had created the legal and political possibility of marriage registrars with conscientious objections against conducting same-sex

  11. Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogger, M.; Agnoletti, M.; Alaoui, A.; Bathurst, J.C.; Bodner, G.; Borga, M.; Chaplot, Vincent; Gallart, F.; Glatzel, G.; Hall, J.; Holden, J.; Holko, L.; Horn, R.; Kiss, A.; Kohnová, S.; Leitinger, G.; Lennartz, B.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.; Peth, S.; Plavcová, L.; Quinton, John N.; Robinson, Matthew R.; Salinas, J.L.; Santoro, A.; Szolgay, J.; Tron, S.; Akker, van den J.J.H.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2017-01-01

    Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes

  12. Getting a Grip on the Handgrip Task: Handgrip Duration Correlates with Neuroticism But Not Conscientiousness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon B. Goldberg

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Questions regarding the replicability of key findings in the self-regulation literature (e.g., ego-depletion effect have led some to call for a more thorough evaluation of commonly used measures of self-control. The isometric handgrip task is one such measure. The current study examined correlates of handgrip persistence using data drawn from a larger randomized controlled trial. Handgrip persistence was measured both at baseline and following a physical stressor (cold pressor test. Correlations were examined between handgrip performance and personality traits theoretically closely linked with self-regulation: conscientiousness and neuroticism. Baseline handgrip performance was correlated with several measures drawn from the nomological network of self-regulation including measures of trait neuroticism, mindfulness, anxiety sensitivity, perceived stress, and positive affect, although not with trait conscientiousness. Baseline handgrip predicted aversiveness experienced during the physical stressor, while changes in handgrip performance tracked changes in implicit and explicit negative affect (i.e., affective reactivity. These associations were largely maintained when controlling for variables highly correlated with overall grip strength (i.e., gender, height, and weight, although correlations separated by gender suggest associations were primarily driven by female participants. Results support future research using the handgrip task.

  13. Climate change at global and regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, J.L.; Royer, J.F.

    2008-01-01

    In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. century. In this paper we present the results of the two french climate models, from CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

  14. Measuring Change with the Rating Scale Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludlow, Larry H.; And Others

    The Rehabilitation Research and Development Laboratory at the United States Veterans Administration Hines Hospital is engaged in a long-term evaluation of blind rehabilitation. One aspect of the evaluation project focuses on the measurement of attitudes toward blindness. Our aim is to measure changes in attitudes toward blindness from…

  15. Orbital scale vegetation change in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, Lydie

    2011-12-01

    Palynological records of Middle and Late Pleistocene marine sediments off African shores is reviewed in order to reveal long-term patterns of vegetation change during climate cycles. Whether the transport of pollen and spores from the source areas on the continent to the ocean floor is mainly by wind or predominantly by rivers depends on the region. Despite the differences in transportation, accumulation rates in the marine sediments decline exponentially with distance to the shore. The marine sediments provide well-dated records presenting the vegetation history of the main biomes of western and southern Africa. The extent of different biomes varied with the climate changes of the glacial interglacial cycle. The Mediterranean forest area expanded during interglacials, the northern Saharan desert during glacials, and the semi-desert area in between during the transitions. In the sub-Saharan mountains ericaceous scrubland spread mainly during glacials and the mountainous forest area often increased during intermediate periods. Savannahs extended or shifted to lower latitudes during glacials. While the representation of the tropical rain forest fluctuated with summer insolation and precession, that of the subtropical biomes showed more obliquity variability or followed the pattern of glacial and interglacials.

  16. Are emotionally attached companion animal caregivers conscientious and neurotic? Factors that affect the human-companion animal relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reevy, Gretchen M; Delgado, Mikel M

    2015-01-01

    Few studies have examined how personality traits may be related to the amounts and types of attachments humans have toward companion animals (pets). In this study, 1,098 companion animal guardians (owners) completed a survey that included the Big Five Inventory, the Lexington Attachment to Pets Scale, and the Pet Attachment Questionnaire. Each participant chose whether he or she identified as a Cat Person, Dog Person, Both, or Neither. Results indicated that neuroticism, conscientiousness, choosing a dog as a favorite pet, and identifying as a Cat Person, Dog Person, or Both predicted affection for a pet. Conscientiousness, extraversion, and openness decreased avoidant attachment to pets, and neuroticism increased anxious attachment to pets. Both dogs and cats could benefit from pet owners who are conscientious, and there may be some benefits of neuroticism in pet owners. The findings of this study will advance understanding of the human-animal bond. As this understanding increases, measurements of human attachment and personality may be useful for the development of tools that could assist shelter employees and veterinarians in counseling people about pet ownership.

  17. Large-scale innovation and change in UK higher education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Brown

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects on challenges universities face as they respond to change. It reviews current theories and models of change management, discusses why universities are particularly difficult environments in which to achieve large scale, lasting change and reports on a recent attempt by the UK JISC to enable a range of UK universities to employ technology to deliver such changes. Key lessons that emerged from these experiences are reviewed covering themes of pervasiveness, unofficial systems, project creep, opposition, pressure to deliver, personnel changes and technology issues. The paper argues that collaborative approaches to project management offer greater prospects of effective large-scale change in universities than either management-driven top-down or more champion-led bottom-up methods. It also argues that while some diminution of control over project outcomes is inherent in this approach, this is outweighed by potential benefits of lasting and widespread adoption of agreed changes.

  18. Attributes of conscientiousness throughout the animal kingdom: An empirical and evolutionary overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Mikel M; Sulloway, Frank J

    2017-08-01

    Conscientiousness is a fundamental aspect of human personality, one that is closely linked with various favorable life outcomes. Despite its importance in humans, conscientiousness has received little attention as to how it may have evolved, or whether it provides similar fitness benefits in other animals. To date, research in animal personality has found consistent support for the presence of all major dimensions of human personality in other animals except conscientiousness. In this review, we investigate conscientiousness at the level of traits and facets (clusters of closely related traits). A systematic review of the literature retrieved 876 relevant publications describing attributes of conscientiousness in other animal species. A factor analysis of citation counts revealed 2 major dimensions representing 9 distinct facets of conscientiousness in nonhumans. These facets, together with their underlying personality traits, exhibit individual variability, are generally known to be heritable, and often offer clear fitness benefits to individuals. Other facets of conscientiousness appear to be unique to humans. Publication biases, research biases, and anthropomorphism may all play a role in the structure of the evidence we report. We conclude by suggesting fruitful areas of future research to further elucidate the presence and functional roles of conscientiousness in animals. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. Neuroticism and Conscientiousness as Moderators of the Relation Between Social Withdrawal and Internalizing Problems in Adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kelly A; Barstead, Matthew G; Rubin, Kenneth H

    2017-04-01

    Social withdrawal, or refraining from social interaction in the presence of peers, places adolescents at risk of developing emotional problems like anxiety and depression. The personality traits of neuroticism and conscientiousness also relate to emotional difficulties. For example, high conscientiousness predicts lower incidence of anxiety disorders and depression, while high neuroticism relates to greater likelihood of these problems. Based on these associations, socially withdrawn adolescents high in conscientiousness or low in neuroticism were expected to have lower levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms. Participants included 103 adolescents (59 % female) who reported on their personality traits in 8th grade and their anxiety and depressive symptoms in 9th grade. Peer ratings of social withdrawal were collected within schools in 8th grade. A structural equation model revealed that 8th grade withdrawal positively predicted 9th grade anxiety and depressive symptoms controlling for 8th grade anxiety and depressive symptoms, but neuroticism did not. Conscientiousness moderated the relation of withdrawal with depressive symptoms but not anxiety, such that high levels of conscientiousness attenuated the association between withdrawal and depressive symptoms. This buffering effect may stem from the conceptual relation between conscientiousness and self-regulation. Conscientiousness did not, however, moderate the association between withdrawal and anxiety, which may be partly due to the role anxiety plays in driving withdrawal. Thus, a conscientious, well-regulated personality partially protects withdrawn adolescents from the increased risk of emotional difficulties.

  20. Assessing Conscientious Personality in Primary Care: An Opportunity for Prevention and Health Promotion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Israel, Salomon; Moffitt, Terrie E.

    2014-01-01

    The articles in this special section bolster the already strong evidence base that personality differences in the trait of conscientiousness predict health. What is now needed is a research agenda for translating documented risk associations between low conscientiousness and poor health into policies and interventions that improve health outcomes…

  1. The Careless or the Conscientious: Who Profits Most from Goal Progress?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulsheger, Ute R.; Maier, Gunter W.

    2010-01-01

    Although research indicates that making progress on personal work goals predicts positive job attitudes, little is known about the role of conscientiousness in moderating this relationship. Congruence theories suggest that job attitudes will be more dependent on goal progress when employees are high in conscientiousness, whereas compensation…

  2. Task-Contingent Conscientiousness as a Unit of Personality at Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minbashian, Amirali; Wood, Robert E.; Beckmann, Nadin

    2010-01-01

    The present study examined the viability of incorporating task-contingent units into the study of personality at work, using conscientiousness as an illustrative example. We used experience-sampling data from 123 managers to show that (a) momentary conscientiousness at work is contingent on the difficulty and urgency demands of the tasks people…

  3. The influence of chronotype and intelligence on academic achievement in primary school is mediated by conscientiousness, midpoint of sleep and motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbabi, Talat; Vollmer, Christian; Dörfler, Tobias; Randler, Christoph

    2015-04-01

    Individuals differ in their timing of sleep (bed times, rise times) and in their preference for morning or evening hours. Previous work focused on the relationship between academic achievement and these variables in secondary school students. The main aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between chronotype and academic achievement in 10-year-old children (n = 1125) attending 4th grade of primary school. They filled a cognitive test (Culture Fair Intelligence Test, CFT 20-R) and questions about rise times and bed times, academic achievement, conscientiousness and motivation. We used the "scales for the assessment of learning and performance motivation" (SELLMO; Skalen zur Erfassung der Lern- und Leistungsmotivation for motivation), the short version of the Five-Factor Personality Inventory Children (FFPI-C) to measure conscientiousness, and the Composite Scale of Morningness (CSM) to assess morningness-eveningness. Mean CSM score was 37.84 ± 6.66, midpoint of sleep was 1:36 ± 00:25 and average sleep duration (time in bed) was 10:15 ± 0:48. Morningness orientation was positively related to intelligence, conscientiousness and learning objectives. Eveningness orientation was related to avoidance performance objectives and work avoidance. Early midpoint of sleep, conscientiousness and intelligence were associated with better grades. The multivariate model showed that intelligence was the strongest predictor of good grades. Conscientiousness, motivation, younger age and an earlier midpoint of sleep were positively related to good grades. This is the first study in primary school pupils, and it shows that the relationship between evening orientation and academic achievement is already prevalent at this age even when controlling for important predictors of achievement.

  4. Two conceptions of conscience and the problem of conscientious objection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symons, Xavier

    2017-04-01

    Schuklenk and Smalling argue that it is practically impossible for civic institutions to meet the conditions necessary to ensure that conscientious objection does not conflict with the core principles of liberal democracies. In this response, I propose an alternative definition of conscience to that offered by Schuklenk and Smalling. I discuss what I call the 'traditional' notion of conscience, and contrast this with the existentialist conception of conscience (which I take to be a close cousin of the view targeted by Schuklenk and Smalling). I argue that the traditional notion, grounded in an objective moral order, avoids the criticisms advanced by Schuklenk and Smalling; the existentialist conception, in contrast, does not. I conclude by discussing the benefits and risks of a 'restricted view' of respect for conscience. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  5. Watch-wearing as a marker of conscientiousness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Ellis

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Several aspects of an individual’s appearance have been shown to predict personality and related behaviour. While some of these cues are grounded in biology (e.g., the human face, other aspects of a person’s appearance can be actively controlled (e.g., clothing. In this paper, we consider a common fashion accessory, the wristwatch. In an exploratory sample (N > 100 and a confirmatory sample (N > 600, we compared big-five personality traits between individuals who do or do not regularly wear a standard wristwatch. Significantly higher levels of conscientiousness were observed in participants who wore a watch. In a third study (N = 85, watch wearers arrived significantly earlier to appointments in comparison to controls. These results are discussed in relation to enclothed cognition and the rise of wearable technology including smartwatches.

  6. Watch-wearing as a marker of conscientiousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, David A; Jenkins, Rob

    2015-01-01

    Several aspects of an individual's appearance have been shown to predict personality and related behaviour. While some of these cues are grounded in biology (e.g., the human face), other aspects of a person's appearance can be actively controlled (e.g., clothing). In this paper, we consider a common fashion accessory, the wristwatch. In an exploratory sample (N > 100) and a confirmatory sample (N > 600), we compared big-five personality traits between individuals who do or do not regularly wear a standard wristwatch. Significantly higher levels of conscientiousness were observed in participants who wore a watch. In a third study (N = 85), watch wearers arrived significantly earlier to appointments in comparison to controls. These results are discussed in relation to enclothed cognition and the rise of wearable technology including smartwatches.

  7. Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper

    2016-01-01

    foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we...... on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach......Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader...

  8. Monitoring of full scale tensegrity skeletons under temperature change

    OpenAIRE

    KAWAGUCHI, Ken'ichi; OHYA, Shunji

    2009-01-01

    p. 224-231 Strain change in the members of full-scale tensegrity skeletons has been monitored for eight years. The one-day data of one of the tensegrity frame on the hottest and the coldest day in the record are reported and discussed. Kawaguchi, K.; Ohya, S. (2009). Monitoring of full scale tensegrity skeletons under temperature change. Symposium of the International Association for Shell and Spatial Structures. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. http://hdl.handle.net/10...

  9. The renormalization group: scale transformations and changes of scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roditi, I.

    1983-01-01

    Starting from a study of perturbation theory, the renormalization group is expressed, not only for changes of scale but also within the original view of Stueckelberg and Peterman, for changes of renormalization scheme. The consequences that follow from using that group are investigated. Following a more general point of view a method to obtain an improvement of the perturbative results for physical quantities is proposed. The results obtained with this method are compared with those of other existing methods. (L.C.) [pt

  10. Medical Assistance in Dying in Canada: An Ethical Analysis of Conscientious and Religious Objections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christie, Timothy

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: The Supreme Court of Canada (SCC has ruled that the federal government is required to remove the provisions of the Criminal Code of Canada that prohibit medical assistance in dying (MAID. The SCC has stipulated that individual physicians will not be required to provide MAID should they have a religious or conscientious objection. Therefore, the pending legislative response will have to balance the rights of the patients with the rights of physicians, other health care professionals, and objecting institutions. Objective: The objective of this paper is to critically assess, within the Canadian context, the moral probity of individual or institutional objections to MAID that are for either religious or conscientious reasons. Methods: Deontological ethics and the Doctrine of Double Effect. Results: The religious or conscientious objector has conflicting duties, i.e., a duty to respect the “right to life” (section 7 of the Charter and a duty to respect the tenets of his or her religious or conscientious beliefs (protected by section 2 of the Charter. Conclusion: The discussion of religious or conscientious objections to MAID has not explicitly considered the competing duties of the conscientious objector. It has focussed on the fact that a conscientious objection exists and has ignored the normative question of whether the duty to respect one’s conscience or religion supersedes the duty to respect the patient’s right to life.

  11. Climate change adaptation strategies by small-scale farmers in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mburu

    SPSS) ... were financial constraints (93.4%), lack of relevant skills (74.5%) and lack of ... Key words: Climate change, small-scale farmers, adaptation strategies. ... investment in irrigation infrastructure, high post-harvest ..... 72.0 School drop out.

  12. Changes in channel morphology over human time scales [Chapter 32

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Buffington

    2012-01-01

    Rivers are exposed to changing environmental conditions over multiple spatial and temporal scales, with the imposed environmental conditions and response potential of the river modulated to varying degrees by human activity and our exploitation of natural resources. Watershed features that control river morphology include topography (valley slope and channel...

  13. Designing for scale: How relationships shape curriculum change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pareja Roblin, Natalie; Corbalan, Gemma; McKenney, Susan; Nieveen, Nienke; Van den Akker, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Pareja Roblin, N., Corbalan Perez, G., McKenney, S., Nieveen, N., & Van den Akker, J. (2012, 13-17 April). Designing for scale: How relationships shape curriculum change. Presentation at the AERA annual meeting, Vancouver, Canada. Please see also http://hdl.handle.net/1820/4679

  14. Designing for scale: How relationships shape curriculum change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pareja Roblin, Natalie; Corbalan, Gemma; McKenney, Susan; Nieveen, Nienke; Van den Akker, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Pareja Roblin, N., Corbalan Perez, G., McKenney, S., Nieveen, N., & Van den Akker, J. (2012, 13-17 April). Designing for scale: How relationships shape curriculum change. Paper presentation at the AERA annual meeting, Vancouver, Canada. Please see also: http://hdl.handle.net/1820/4678

  15. Conscientious objection and abortion: rights and duties of public sector physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniz, Debora

    2011-10-01

    The paper analyzes conscientious objection by physicians, through the concrete situation of legal abortion in Brazil. It reviews the two main ethical frameworks about conscientious objection in public health, the incompatibility thesis and the integrity thesis, to analyze the reality of legal abortion services in the referral services of the Brazilian public health care system. From these two perspectives, a third perspective is proposed - the justification thesis, to manage the right to conscientious objection among physicians in referral services. This analysis may contribute to the organization of services for legal abortion and to the education of future physicians working in emergency obstetric care.

  16. Pattern recognition invariant under changes of scale and orientation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Henri H.; Parent, Sebastien; Moisan, Sylvain

    1997-08-01

    We have used a modified method proposed by neiberg and Casasent to successfully classify five kinds of military vehicles. The method uses a wedge filter to achieve scale invariance, and lines in a multi-dimensional feature space correspond to each target with out-of-plane orientations over 360 degrees around a vertical axis. The images were not binarized, but were filtered in a preprocessing step to reduce aliasing. The feature vectors were normalized and orthogonalized by means of a neural network. Out-of-plane rotations of 360 degrees and scale changes of a factor of four were considered. Error-free classification was achieved.

  17. Conscientious Objection in Healthcare Provision: A New Dimension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West-Oram, Peter; Buyx, Alena

    2016-06-01

    The right to conscientious objection in the provision of healthcare is the subject of a lengthy, heated and controversial debate. Recently, a new dimension was added to this debate by the US Supreme Court's decision in Burwell vs. Hobby Lobby et al. which effectively granted rights to freedom of conscience to private, for-profit corporations. In light of this paradigm shift, we examine one of the most contentious points within this debate, the impact of granting conscience exemptions to healthcare providers on the ability of women to enjoy their rights to reproductive autonomy. We argue that the exemptions demanded by objecting healthcare providers cannot be justified on the liberal, pluralist grounds on which they are based, and impose unjustifiable costs on both individual persons, and society as a whole. In doing so, we draw attention to a worrying trend in healthcare policy in Europe and the United States to undermine women's rights to reproductive autonomy by prioritizing the rights of ideologically motivated service providers to an unjustifiably broad form of freedom of conscience. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Conscientious Objection to Animal Experimentation in Italian Universities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldelli, Ilaria; Massaro, Alma; Penco, Susanna; Bassi, Anna Maria; Patuzzo, Sara; Ciliberti, Rosagemma

    2017-03-13

    In Italy, Law 413/1993 states that public and private Italian Institutions, including academic faculties, are obliged to fully inform workers and students about their right to conscientious objection to scientific or educational activities involving animals, hereafter written as "animal CO". However, little monitoring on the faculties' compliance with this law has been performed either by the government or other institutional bodies. Based on this premise, the authors have critically reviewed the existing data and compared them with those emerging from their own investigation to discuss limitations and inconsistencies. The results of this investigation revealed that less than half of Italian academic faculties comply with their duty to inform on animal CO. Non-compliance may substantially affect the right of students to make ethical choices in the field of animal ethics and undermines the fundamental right to express their own freedom of thought. The Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research, ethics committees and animal welfare bodies should cooperate to make faculties respect this law. Further research is needed to better understand the reasons for the current trend, as well as to promote the enforcement of Law 413/1993 with particular regard to information on animal CO.

  19. The effects of conscientiousness on the appraisals of daily stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartland, Nicola; O'Connor, Daryl B; Lawton, Rebecca

    2012-02-01

    Conscientiousness (C) is positively associated with health and longevity although the mechanisms underlying this relationship are not fully understood. Stress may play a role in explaining the C-longevity relationship. This study investigated whether C predicted the cognitive appraisals of daily stressors/hassles. Participants (N=102) completed measures of C and cognitive appraisal in relation to the most stressful hassle they had experienced in the last 7 days. Correlational analysis revealed that Total C, Order and Industriousness were positively correlated with primary appraisals, and Responsibility was positively correlated with secondary appraisals. The facets of C were then entered into hierarchical regression models, controlling for age and gender. This demonstrated that Order (β=0.27, paccounting for 15.8% of the variance. Responsibility significantly predicted secondary appraisals (β=0.44, paccounting for 16.3% of the variance. These findings indicate that higher Order and Industriousness are related to having a greater stake in daily stressors, whereas higher Responsibility is related to greater confidence in one's ability to deal with daily stressors. These results are the first demonstration that C is related to the appraisals of daily hassles and suggest that C may moderate the experience of stress in daily life. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Personality and Healthy Sleep: The Importance of Conscientiousness and Neuroticism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, Katherine A.; Friedman, Howard S.; McDevitt, Elizabeth A.; Mednick, Sara C.

    2014-01-01

    Although previous research has shown personality and sleep are each substantial predictors of health throughout the lifespan, little is known about links between personality and healthy sleep patterns. This study examined Big Five personality traits and a range of factors related to sleep health in 436 university students (M age = 19.88, SD = 1.50, 50% Male). Valid self-report measures of personality, chronotype, sleep hygiene, sleep quality, and sleepiness were analyzed. To remove multicollinearity between personality factors, each sleep domain was regressed on relevant demographic and principal component-derived personality factors in multiple linear regressions. Results showed that low conscientiousness and high neuroticism were the best predictors of poor sleep (poor sleep hygiene, low sleep quality, and increased sleepiness), consistent with other research on predictors of poor health and mortality risk. In this first comprehensive study of the topic, the findings suggest that personality has a significant association with sleep health, and researchers could profitably examine both personality and sleep in models of health and well-being. PMID:24651274

  1. Conscientious Objection to Animal Experimentation in Italian Universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilaria Baldelli

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In Italy, Law 413/1993 states that public and private Italian Institutions, including academic faculties, are obliged to fully inform workers and students about their right to conscientious objection to scientific or educational activities involving animals, hereafter written as “animal CO”. However, little monitoring on the faculties’ compliance with this law has been performed either by the government or other institutional bodies. Based on this premise, the authors have critically reviewed the existing data and compared them with those emerging from their own investigation to discuss limitations and inconsistencies. The results of this investigation revealed that less than half of Italian academic faculties comply with their duty to inform on animal CO. Non-compliance may substantially affect the right of students to make ethical choices in the field of animal ethics and undermines the fundamental right to express their own freedom of thought. The Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research, ethics committees and animal welfare bodies should cooperate to make faculties respect this law. Further research is needed to better understand the reasons for the current trend, as well as to promote the enforcement of Law 413/1993 with particular regard to information on animal CO.

  2. THE RIGHT OF MEDICAL WORKERS TO CONSCIENTIOUSLY OBJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jozo Čizmić

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Institute “conscientious” protects citizens’ freedom of each person in relation to the choice according to their own conscience. With the view of her/his ethical, religious or moral principles, medical worker has the right to refer to conscientious objection and decline to conduct health care if it is not in dissonance with professional standards or if it is not causing any permanent consequences on health or it is not danger for patient’s life. Medical worker shall inform the patient and responsible or superior person on her decision in due time. This is a multidisciplinary problem whose solution can be found only through joint and simultaneous access to several scientific disciplines and professions (physicians, lawyers, ethicists, theologians, sociologists, etc., as well as interest groups (associations of patients and health workers, chambers, etc. according to international and national regulations, the recent case law of international and domestic courts, rules and protocols of the profession, the decision of codes of ethics, the principles of religion etc.

  3. Conscientiousness and reactions to psychological contract breach: a longitudinal field study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orvis, Karin A; Dudley, Nicole M; Cortina, Jose M

    2008-09-01

    The authors examined the role of employee conscientiousness as a moderator of the relationships between psychological contract breach and employee behavioral and attitudinal reactions to the breach. They collected data from 106 newly hired employees within the 1st month of employment (Time 1), 3 months later (Time 2), and 8 months after Time 1 (Time 3) to observe the progression through contract development, breach, and reaction. Results suggest that conscientiousness is a significant moderator for 4 of the 5 contract breach-employee reaction relationships examined (turnover intentions, organizational loyalty, job satisfaction, and 1 of 2 facets of job performance). Specifically, employees who were lower in conscientiousness had more negative reactions to perceived breach with respect to turnover intentions, organizational loyalty, and job satisfaction. In contrast, employees who were higher in conscientiousness reduced their job performance to a greater degree in response to contract breach. Future research directions are discussed.

  4. Childhood conscientiousness predicts the social gradient of smoking in adulthood: a life course analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pluess, Michael; Bartley, Mel

    2015-04-01

    The social gradient in smoking is well known, with higher rates among those in less advantaged socioeconomic position. Some recent research has reported that personality characteristics partly explain this gradient. However, the majority of existing work is limited by cross-sectional designs unsuitable to determine whether differences in conscientiousness are a predictor or a product of social inequalities. Adopting a life course perspective, we investigated in the current paper the influence of conscientiousness in early and mid-life on the social gradient in smoking and the role of potential confounding factors in a large longitudinal cohort study. Using data from the 1958 National Child Development Study, we examined the extent to which two measures of conscientiousness, one assessed with a personality questionnaire at age 50 and one derived from three related items at 16 years in childhood, explained the social gradient of smoking at age 50 by comparing nested logistic regression models that included social class at birth, cognitive ability, attention and conduct problems at age 7, and educational qualification. Childhood conscientiousness was a significant predictor of smoking at 50 years (OR=0.86, CI (95%) 0.84 to 0.88), explaining 5.0% of the social gradient independent of all other variables. Childhood conscientiousness was a stronger predictor than adult conscientiousness, statistically accounting for the observed direct association of adult conscientiousness with smoking. Conscientiousness may be a predictor rather than a product of social differences in smoking. Inclusion of personality measures and adoption of a life course perspective add significantly to our understanding of health inequalities. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  5. Freedom of choice in birth, abortion and the place of conscientious objection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristan, I

    1998-01-01

    The Constitution of the Republic of Slovenia includes two statutes: (a) the freedom to decide about the birth of one's own child (freedom of birth-decision), and (b) the right of conscientious objection, including the right to abortion. This discussion focuses on the principles of "free choice and womens'reproductive freedom". The right of conscientious objection in relation to the right to abortion is also discussed.

  6. White matter tract network disruption explains reduced conscientiousness in multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Tom A; Dwyer, Michael G; Kuceyeski, Amy; Choudhery, Sanjeevani; Carolus, Keith; Li, Xian; Mallory, Matthew; Weinstock-Guttman, Bianca; Jakimovski, Dejan; Ramasamy, Deepa; Zivadinov, Robert; Benedict, Ralph H B

    2018-05-08

    Quantifying white matter (WM) tract disruption in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) provides a novel means for investigating the relationship between defective network connectivity and clinical markers. PwMS exhibit perturbations in personality, where decreased Conscientiousness is particularly prominent. This trait deficit influences disease trajectory and functional outcomes such as work capacity. We aimed to identify patterns of WM tract disruption related to decreased Conscientiousness in PwMS. Personality assessment and brain MRI were obtained in 133 PwMS and 49 age- and sex-matched healthy controls (HC). Lesion maps were applied to determine the severity of WM tract disruption between pairs of gray matter regions. Next, the Network-Based-Statistics tool was applied to identify structural networks whose disruption negatively correlates with Conscientiousness. Finally, to determine whether these networks explain unique variance above conventional MRI measures and cognition, regression models were applied controlling for age, sex, brain volume, T2-lesion volume, and cognition. Relative to HCs, PwMS exhibited lower Conscientiousness and slowed cognitive processing speed (p = .025, p = .006). Lower Conscientiousness in PwMS was significantly associated with WM tract disruption between frontal, frontal-parietal, and frontal-cingulate pathways in the left (p = .02) and right (p = .01) hemisphere. The mean disruption of these pathways explained unique additive variance in Conscientiousness, after accounting for conventional MRI markers of pathology and cognition (ΔR 2  = .049, p = .029). Damage to WM tracts between frontal, frontal-parietal, and frontal-cingulate cortical regions is significantly correlated with reduced Conscientiousness in PwMS. Tract disruption within these networks explains decreased Conscientiousness observed in PwMS as compared with HCs. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Neuroticism and conscientiousness respectively constrain and facilitate short-term plasticity within the working memory neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dima, Danai; Friston, Karl J; Stephan, Klaas E; Frangou, Sophia

    2015-10-01

    Individual differences in cognitive efficiency, particularly in relation to working memory (WM), have been associated both with personality dimensions that reflect enduring regularities in brain configuration, and with short-term neural plasticity, that reflects task-related changes in brain connectivity. To elucidate the relationship of these two divergent mechanisms, we tested the hypothesis that personality dimensions, which reflect enduring aspects of brain configuration, inform about the neurobiological framework within which short-term, task-related plasticity, as measured by effective connectivity, can be facilitated or constrained. As WM consistently engages the dorsolateral prefrontal (DLPFC), parietal (PAR), and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), we specified a WM network model with bidirectional, ipsilateral, and contralateral connections between these regions from a functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset obtained from 40 healthy adults while performing the 3-back WM task. Task-related effective connectivity changes within this network were estimated using Dynamic Causal Modelling. Personality was evaluated along the major dimensions of Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness to Experience, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness. Only two dimensions were relevant to task-dependent effective connectivity. Neuroticism and Conscientiousness respectively constrained and facilitated neuroplastic responses within the WM network. These results suggest individual differences in cognitive efficiency arise from the interplay between enduring and short-term plasticity in brain configuration. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

    2011-12-01

    Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

  9. Development of the Systems Thinking Scale for Adolescent Behavior Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Shirley M; Komton, Vilailert; Adegbite-Adeniyi, Clara; Dolansky, Mary A; Hardin, Heather K; Borawski, Elaine A

    2018-03-01

    This report describes the development and psychometric testing of the Systems Thinking Scale for Adolescent Behavior Change (STS-AB). Following item development, initial assessments of understandability and stability of the STS-AB were conducted in a sample of nine adolescents enrolled in a weight management program. Exploratory factor analysis of the 16-item STS-AB and internal consistency assessments were then done with 359 adolescents enrolled in a weight management program. Test-retest reliability of the STS-AB was .71, p = .03; internal consistency reliability was .87. Factor analysis of the 16-item STS-AB indicated a one-factor solution with good factor loadings, ranging from .40 to .67. Evidence of construct validity was supported by significant correlations with established measures of variables associated with health behavior change. We provide beginning evidence of the reliability and validity of the STS-AB to measure systems thinking for health behavior change in young adolescents.

  10. The Withdrawal of Health Care from Irregular Immigrants and Medical Conscientious Objection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yolanda Garcìa Ruiz

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic crisis so strongly affecting some southern European countries has led to significant cuts in the system of universal public health care in Spain. Such measures particularly affect irregular immigrants and can also cause significant public health consequences. A form of civil resistance that deserves to be analyzed is the conscientious objection of Spanish doctors who have chosen to continue attending irregular immigrants in contravention of new the rules restricting their access to the public health system and their right to health. The aim of this paper is to analyze the new regulation which cut health care for irregular immigrants in Spain, the impact of this new regulation on the most vulnerable groups, and the response of doctors, who exercised their right to conscientious objection in relation to applying the new regulation. Finally to examine the announcement of change which came about as a consequence of international and domestic social pressure causing political risk to the Spanish National Government. La crisis económica, que ha afectado tan profundamente a algunos países del sur de Europa, ha dado lugar a significativos recortes en el sistema de atención sanitaria pública en España. Algunas de las medidas adoptadas han afectado específicamente a los inmigrantes irregulares y pueden tener, incluso, efectos en el ámbito de la salud pública. Una forma de desobediencia civil que merece ser analizada es la declaración de objeción de conciencia de determinados médicos y profesionales sanitarios españoles que han continuado atendiendo a los inmigrantes irregulares en contra de las nuevas  restricciones impuestas por el Gobierno que afectan al reconocimiento universal del derecho a la salud. El propósito de este artículo es el de analizar la nueva regulación que limita el acceso a la asistencia sanitaria de los inmigrantes irregulares en España, el impacto de esta nueva regulación en los grupos más vulnerables

  11. Full scale experimental analysis of wind direction changes (EOD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2007-01-01

    wind direction gust amplitudes associated with the investigated European sites are low compared to the recommended IEC- values. However, these values, as function of the mean wind speed, are difficult to validate thoroughly due to the limited number of fully correlated measurements....... the magnitudes of a joint gust event defined by a simultaneously wind speed- and direction change in order to obtain an indication of the validity of the magnitudes specified in the IEC code. The analysis relates to pre-specified recurrence periods and is based on full-scale wind field measurements. The wind......A coherent wind speed and wind direction change (ECD) load case is defined in the wind turbine standard. This load case is an essential extreme load case that e.g. may be design driving for flap defection of active stall controlled wind turbines. The present analysis identifies statistically...

  12. Assessment of Change in Psychoanalysis: Another Way of Using the Change After Psychotherapy Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, António Pazo; Gonçalves, João; Sá, Vânia; Silva, Andrea; Sandell, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A systematic method is presented whereby material from a full course of psychoanalytic treatment is analyzed to assess changes and identify patterns of change. Through an analysis of session notes, changes were assessed using the CHange After Psychotherapy scales (CHAP; Sandell 1987a), which evaluate changes in five rating variables (symptoms, adaptive capacity, insight, basic conflicts, and extratherapeutic factors). Change incidents were identified in nearly every session. Early in the analysis, relatively more change incidents related to insight were found than were found for the other types of change. By contrast, in the third year and part of the fourth year, relatively more change incidents related to basic conflicts and adaptive capacity were found. While changes related to symptoms occurred throughout the course of treatment, such changes were never more frequent than other types of change. A content analysis of the change incidents allowed a determination of when in the treatment the patient's main conflicts (identified clinically) were overcome. A crossing of quantitative data with clinical and qualitative data allowed a better understanding of the patterns of change. © 2016 by the American Psychoanalytic Association.

  13. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  14. Designing for Change: Interoperability in a scaling and adapting environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarmey, L.

    2015-12-01

    The Earth Science cyberinfrastructure landscape is constantly changing. Technologies advance and technical implementations are refined or replaced. Data types, volumes, packaging, and use cases evolve. Scientific requirements emerge and mature. Standards shift while systems scale and adapt. In this complex and dynamic environment, interoperability remains a critical component of successful cyberinfrastructure. Through the resource- and priority-driven iterations on systems, interfaces, and content, questions fundamental to stable and useful Earth Science cyberinfrastructure arise. For instance, how are sociotechnical changes planned, tracked, and communicated? How should operational stability balance against 'new and shiny'? How can ongoing maintenance and mitigation of technical debt be managed in an often short-term resource environment? The Arctic Data Explorer is a metadata brokering application developed to enable discovery of international, interdisciplinary Arctic data across distributed repositories. Completely dependent on interoperable third party systems, the Arctic Data Explorer publicly launched in 2013 with an original 3000+ data records from four Arctic repositories. Since then the search has scaled to 25,000+ data records from thirteen repositories at the time of writing. In the final months of original project funding, priorities shift to lean operations with a strategic eye on the future. Here we present lessons learned from four years of Arctic Data Explorer design, development, communication, and maintenance work along with remaining questions and potential directions.

  15. Mechanical aspects of allotropic phase change at the mesoscopic scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valance, St.

    2007-12-01

    The prediction of the mechanical state of steel structures submit to thermo-mechanical loading must take into account consequences of allotropic phase change. Indeed, phase change induce, at least for steels, a mechanism of TRansformation Induced Plasticity (TRIP) leading to irreversible deformation even for loading less than elastic yield limit. Homogenized analytical models generally fail to achieve a correct prediction for complex loading. In order to overcome these difficulties, we present a model achieving a sharper description of the phenomenon. The mesoscopic working scale we adopt here is the grain scale size. Hence, we consider that the behaviour of each phase is homogenous in the sense of continuous media mechanic, whereas the front is explicitly described. We work both experimentally and numerically. Experimentally, we designed a test facility enabling thermo mechanical loading of the sample under partial vacuum. Acquisition of sample surface while martensitic transformation is happening leads, under some hypothesis and thanks to Digital Image Correlation, to the partial identification of area affected by transformation. Numerically, the eXtended Finite Element Method is applied for weakly discontinuous displacement fields. Used of this method needs to numerically track the transformation front -discontinuity support. In that goal, based on level set method, we develop FEM numerical scheme enabling recognition and propagation of discontinuity support. Finally, this work is complete by an approach of driving forces introduced through Eshelbian mechanics which are dual of front velocity. (author)

  16. Public reason and the limited right to conscientious objection: a response to Magelssen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenblum, Jake

    2018-03-01

    In a recent article for this journal, Morten Magelssen argues that the right to conscientious objection in healthcare is grounded in the moral integrity of healthcare professionals, a good for both professionals and society. In this paper, I argue that there is no right to conscientious objection in healthcare, at least as Magelssen conceives of it. Magelssen's conception of the right to conscientious objection is too expansive in nature. Although I will assume that there is a right to conscientious objection, it does not extend to objections that are purely religious in nature. i Thus, this right is considerably more restricted than Magelssen thinks. In making my case, I draw on John Rawls's later work in arguing for the claim that conscientious objection based on purely religious considerations fails to benefit society in the appropriate way. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. Why medical professionals have no moral claim to conscientious objection accommodation in liberal democracies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuklenk, Udo; Smalling, Ricardo

    2017-04-01

    We describe a number of conscientious objection cases in a liberal Western democracy. These cases strongly suggest that the typical conscientious objector does not object to unreasonable, controversial professional services-involving torture, for instance-but to the provision of professional services that are both uncontroversially legal and that patients are entitled to receive. We analyse the conflict between these patients' access rights and the conscientious objection accommodation demanded by monopoly providers of such healthcare services. It is implausible that professionals who voluntarily join a profession should be endowed with a legal claim not to provide services that are within the scope of the profession's practice and that society expects them to provide. We discuss common counterarguments to this view and reject all of them. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  18. The Continuum of Conscientiousness: The Antagonistic Interests among Obsessive and Antisocial Personalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hertler Steven C.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The five factor trait of conscientiousnessis a supertrait, denoting on one hand a pattern of excessive labor, rigidity, orderliness and compulsivity,and on the other hand a pattern of strict rectitude, scrupulosity, dutifulness and morality. In both respects the obsessive-compulsive personality is conscientious; indeed, it has been labeled a disorder of extreme conscientiousness (Widiger et al., 2009. Antisocial personality disorder, in the present paper, is described as occupying the opposite end of the conscientiousness continuum. The antisocial is impulsive rather than compulsive, illicit rather than licit, and furtive rather than forthright.After clinically comparing the obsessive and antisocial personalities, the present paper invokes evolutionary theory to explain their resultant behavioral, ideological, political and demographic differences.

  19. Undergraduate Consent Form Reading in Relation to Conscientiousness, Procrastination, and the Point-of-Time Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theiss, Justin D; Hobbs, William B; Giordano, Peter J; Brunson, Olivia M

    2014-07-01

    Informed consent is central to conducting ethical research with human participants. The present study investigated differences in consent form reading in relation to conscientiousness, procrastination, and the point-of-time (PT) effect among undergraduate participants at a U.S. university. As hypothesized, conscientious participants and those who signed up to participate in a research study more days in advance and for earlier sessions (PT effect) read the consent form more thoroughly. However, procrastination was not related to consent form reading. Most importantly, consent form reading in general was poor, with 80% of participants demonstrating that they had not read the consent form. Conscientious participants were more likely to self-report reading the consent form, irrespective of their measured consent form reading. The article closes with suggestions to improve the process of obtaining informed consent with undergraduate participants. © The Author(s) 2014.

  20. City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Tuomisto, Jouni; Jantunen, Matti; Pärjälä, Erkki; Sabel, Clive E

    2017-06-01

    Climate change mitigation policies aim to reduce climate change through reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions whereas adaption policies seek to enable humans to live in a world with increasingly variable and more extreme climatic conditions. It is increasingly realised that enacting such policies will have unintended implications for public health, but there has been less focus on their implications for wellbeing. Wellbeing can be defined as a positive mental state which is influenced by living conditions. As part of URGENCHE, an EU funded project to identify health and wellbeing outcomes of city greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, a survey designed to measure these living conditions and levels of wellbeing in Kuopio, Finland was collected in December 2013. Kuopio was the northmost among seven cities in Europe and China studied. Generalised estimating equation modelling was used to determine which living conditions were associated with subjective wellbeing (measured through the WHO-5 Scale). Local greenspace and spending time in nature were associated with higher levels of wellbeing whereas cold housing and poor quality indoor air were associated with lower levels of wellbeing. Thus adaption policies to increase greenspace might, in addition to reducing heat island effects, have the co-benefit of increasing wellbeing and improving housing insulation.

  1. Personality change following head injury: assessment with the NEO Five-Factor Inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lannoo, E; de Deyne, C; Colardyn, F; de Soete, G; Jannes, C

    1997-11-01

    We evaluated personality change following head injury in 68 patients at 6 months postinjury using the NEO Five-Factor Inventory to assess the five personality dimensions of the Five-Factor Model of Personality. All items had to be rated twice, once for the preinjury and once for the current status. Twenty-eight trauma patients with injuries to other parts of the body than the head were used as controls. For the head-injured group, 63 relatives also completed the questionnaire. The results showed no differences between the ratings of head-injured patients and the ratings of trauma control patients. Both groups showed significant change in the personality dimensions Neuroticism, Extraversion, and Conscientiousness. Compared to their relatives, head-injured patients report a smaller change in Extraversion and Conscientiousness. Changes were not reported on the Openness and Agreeableness scales, by neither the head-injured or their relatives, nor by the trauma controls.

  2. A pleasure working together? : the effects of dissimilarity in team member conscientiousness on team temporal processes and individual satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gevers, J.M.P.; Peeters, M.A.G.

    2009-01-01

    In this study of 43 student project teams, we tested a multi-level mediation model of the relationship between dissimilarity in conscientiousness, team temporal processes, and team member satisfaction. We distinguished between individual-level dissimilarity in conscientiousness (i.e., the distance

  3. Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

    2012-12-01

    The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other

  4. Conscientiousness and Public Health: Synthesizing Current Research to Promote Healthy Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiss, David; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.; Nielsen, Lisbeth

    2014-01-01

    In this special section, 9 studies and 6 commentaries make a unique contribution to the study of personality. They focus on the five-factor model and, in particular, one of those 5: conscientiousness. This trait has had astonishing success in the actuarial prediction of adaptive outcomes in adulthood and aging, but we have little understanding of…

  5. Broad versus narrow traits: Conscientiousness and Honesty-Humility as predictors of academic criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, A.; de Vries, R.E.; Born, M.Ph.

    2011-01-01

    Recent research has suggested that the six-dimensional personality model, and especially the dimension Honesty-Humility/Integrity, adds incremental validity to the prediction of important criteria. We expected both this dimension and the dimension Conscientiousness to explain incremental variance in

  6. A Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Internet Addiction: The Role of Conscientiousness and Classroom Hostility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavropoulos, Vasilis; Kuss, Daria; Griffiths, Mark; Motti-Stefanidi, Frosso

    2016-01-01

    Over the last decade, research on Internet addiction (IA) has increased. However, almost all studies in the area are cross-sectional and do not examine the context in which Internet use takes place. Therefore, a longitudinal study examined the role of conscientiousness (as a personality trait) and classroom hostility (as a contextual factor) in…

  7. Child maltreatment and risk behaviors: The roles of callous/unemotional traits and conscientiousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Matthew; Oshri, Assaf; Kwon, Josephine

    2015-12-01

    Child maltreatment poses significant risk to the development of callous/unemotional traits as well as risk behaviors such as engaging in violence, having sex with strangers, and binge drinking. In the current study, the indirect pathway from child maltreatment to risk behaviors was examined via callous/unemotional traits; whereas the conscientious personality trait was tested as a moderator of this indirect pathway. Young adults and parents (N=361; Mage=19.14, SD=1.44) completed questionnaires on child maltreatment histories, callousness/unemotional traits, personality characteristics, and risk behaviors. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the hypothesized direct, indirect and conditional indirect effects. Findings showed indirect links between the child maltreatment latent factor and physical fighting, having sex with strangers, and binge drinking via callous/unemotional traits. Furthermore, the conscientiousness personality type significantly buffered the connection between callous/unemotional traits and physical fighting, supporting a conditional indirect effects. Callous/unemotional traits are important factors in the underlying mechanism between child maltreatment and risk behaviors among young adults, and conscientiousness serves as a protective factor against violence. Preventive intervention programs and clinicians may benefit from focusing in addressing callous/unemotional traits among youth who report childhood maltreatment experiences as well as targeting conscientiousness as a protective factor. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The Mediating Role of Conscientiousness Personality Characteristic in Relationship between Attitude toward Addiction and Academic Achievement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Rezaei

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study is aimed at examining the mediating role of personality trait of conscientiousness in the relationship between attitudes towards addiction (which is considered to be a barrier to educational achievement and students’ academic performance. Method: As a cross sectional study lying within the range of descriptive studies, 106 students of Guilan University of medical sciences in 2010-2011 were randomly selected as the study sample and responded to the items of subscale conscientiousnessof NEO Personality Inventory and attitude measurement questionnaire toward addiction. Recent acquired total averages of students were considered as academic performance. Findings: In the first step, the academic performance regression was significant aboard tendency towards addiction. In the second step, however, with entry of conscientiousness as a mediator variable , there was observed a significant decrease in the β coefficient of attitude toward addiction and lost its significance. In other words, the mediator variable, consciousness, plays a mediating part in the relationship between tendency to addiction and educational performance. In general, these two variables could moderately explain 12% of the variance in academic performance to make the adjustment. Conclusion: Conscientious people enjoy higher achievement and lower degree often tendency toward addiction due to such factors as self-regulation, perseverance, and resistance against harmful impulses. Therefore,the personality trait of conscientiousness can counteract the detrimental effect of attitude toward addiction on academic performance through performing a protective role.

  9. The role of chronotype, gender, test anxiety, and conscientiousness in academic achievement of high school students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahafar, Arash; Maghsudloo, Mahdis; Farhangnia, Sajedeh; Vollmer, Christian; Randler, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    Previous findings have demonstrated that chronotype (morningness/intermediate/eveningness) is correlated with cognitive functions, that is, people show higher mental performance when they do a test at their preferred time of day. Empirical studies found a relationship between morningness and higher learning achievement at school and university. However, only a few of them controlled for other moderating and mediating variables. In this study, we included chronotype, gender, conscientiousness and test anxiety in a structural equation model (SEM) with grade point average (GPA) as academic achievement outcome. Participants were 158 high school students and results revealed that boys and girls differed in GPA and test anxiety significantly, with girls reporting better grades and higher test anxiety. Moreover, there was a positive correlation between conscientiousness and GPA (r = 0.17) and morningness (r = 0.29), respectively, and a negative correlation between conscientiousness and test anxiety (r = -0.22). The SEM demonstrated that gender was the strongest predictor of academic achievement. Lower test anxiety predicted higher GPA in girls but not in boys. Additionally, chronotype as moderator revealed a significant association between gender and GPA for evening types and intermediate types, while intermediate types showed a significant relationship between test anxiety and GPA. Our results suggest that gender is an essential predictor of academic achievement even stronger than low or absent test anxiety. Future studies are needed to explore how gender and chronotype act together in a longitudinal panel design and how chronotype is mediated by conscientiousness in the prediction of academic achievement.

  10. Agreeableness and Conscientiousness as Predictors of University Students' Self/Peer-Assessment Rating Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birjandi, Parviz; Siyyari, Masood

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the results of an investigation into the role of two personality traits (i.e. Agreeableness and Conscientiousness from the Big Five personality traits) in predicting rating error in the self-assessment and peer-assessment of composition writing. The average self/peer-rating errors of 136 Iranian English major undergraduates…

  11. OBJECT-ORIENTED CHANGE DETECTION BASED ON MULTI-SCALE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Jia

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The change detection of remote sensing images means analysing the change information quantitatively and recognizing the change types of the surface coverage data in different time phases. With the appearance of high resolution remote sensing image, object-oriented change detection method arises at this historic moment. In this paper, we research multi-scale approach for high resolution images, which includes multi-scale segmentation, multi-scale feature selection and multi-scale classification. Experimental results show that this method has a stronger advantage than the traditional single-scale method of high resolution remote sensing image change detection.

  12. Watershed scale impacts of bioenergy, landscape changes, and ecosystem response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaubey, Indrajeet; Cibin, Raj; Chiang, Li-Chi

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, high US gasoline prices and national security concerns have prompted a renewed interest in alternative fuel sources to meet increasing energy demands, particularly by the transportation sector. Food and animal feed crops, such as corn and soybean, sugarcane, residue from these crops, and cellulosic perennial crops grown specifically to produce bioenergy (e.g. switchgrass, Miscanthus, mixed grasses), and fast growing trees (e.g. hybrid poplar) are expected to provide the majority of the biofeedstock for energy production. One of the grand challenges in supplying large quantities of grain-based and lignocellulosic materials for the production of biofuels is ensuring that they are produced in environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. Feedstock selection will vary geographically based on regional adaptability, productivity, and reliability. Changes in land use and management practices related to biofeedstock production may have potential impacts on water quantity and quality, sediments, and pesticides and nutrient losses, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. We have made many improvements in the currently available biophysical models (e.g. Soil and Water Assessment Tool or SWAT model) to evaluate sustainability of energy crop production. We have utilized the improved model to evaluate impacts of both annual (e.g. corn) and perennial bioenergy crops (e.g. Miscanthus and switchgrass at) on hydrology and water quality under the following plausible bioenergy crop production scenarios: (1) at highly erodible areas; (2) at agriculturally marginal areas; (3) at pasture areas; (4) crop residue (corn stover) removal; and (5) combinations of above scenarios. Overall results indicated improvement in water quality with introduction of perennial energy crops. Stream flow at the watershed outlet was reduced under energy crop production scenarios and ranged between 0.3% and 5% across scenarios. Erosion and sediment

  13. General job performance of first-line supervisors: the role of conscientiousness in determining its effects on subordinate exhaustion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Sara Jansen; Rubino, Cristina; Witt, L A

    2011-04-01

    In an integrated test of the job demands-resources model and trait activation theory, we predicted that the general job performance of employees who also hold supervisory roles may act as a demand to subordinates, depending on levels of subordinate conscientiousness. In a sample of 313 customer service call centre employees, we found that high-conscientiousness individuals were more likely to experience emotional exhaustion, and low-conscientiousness individuals were less likely as the general job performance of their supervisor improved. The results were curvilinear, such that high-conscientiousness individuals' exhaustion levelled off with very high supervisor performance (two standard deviations above the mean), and low-conscientiousness individuals' exhaustion levelled off as supervisor performance improved from moderate to high. These findings suggest high-conscientiousness employees may efficiently handle demands presented by a low-performing coworker who is their boss, but when performance expectations are high (i.e. high-performing boss), these achievement-oriented employees may direct their resources (i.e. energy and time) towards performance-related efforts at the expense of their well-being. Conversely, low-conscientiousness employees suffer when paired with a low-performing boss, but benefit from a supervisor who demonstrates at least moderate job performance.

  14. Childhood Conscientiousness and Leukocyte Telomere Length 40 Years Later in Adult Women--Preliminary Findings of a Prospective Association.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grant W Edmonds

    Full Text Available Leukocyte telomere length (LTL shortens with age, and is a prospective marker of mortality related to cardiovascular disease. Many health behaviors and social environmental factors have been found to be associated with LTL. Several of these are also associated with conscientiousness, a dispositional personality trait. Conscientiousness is a propensity to be planful, adhere to social norms, and inhibit pre-potent responses. Like LTL, conscientiousness is prospectively related to mortality, possibly through cumulative effects on health over the life course via multiple pathways. As a result, we hypothesized that childhood levels of conscientiousness would predict LTL prospectively in adulthood. We selected a sample of 60 women in the Hawaii Personality and Health Cohort; 30 described by their teachers as high on conscientiousness in childhood and 30 described as low on the trait. Dried blood spot samples collected in adulthood 40 years later were used as sources of DNA for the LTL assay. Conscientiousness was associated with longer LTL (p = .02. Controlling for age did not account for this association. Controlling for education and physiological dysregulation partially attenuated the association, and the effect remained significant when accounting for differences in LTL across cultural groups. These results represent the first evidence that childhood personality prospectively predicts LTL 40 years later in adulthood. Our findings would be consistent with a mediation hypothesis whereby conscientiousness predicts life paths and trajectories of health that are reflected in rates of LTL erosion across the lifespan.

  15. Long Term Large Scale river nutrient changes across the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Victoria; Naden, Pam; Tipping, Ed; Davies, Helen; Davies, Jessica; Dragosits, Ulli; Muhammed, Shibu; Quinton, John; Stuart, Marianne; Whitmore, Andy; Wu, Lianhai

    2017-04-01

    During recent decades and centuries, pools and fluxes of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (C, N and P) in UK rivers and ecosystems have been transformed by the spread and fertiliser-based intensification of agriculture (necessary to sustain human populations), by atmospheric pollution, by human waste (rising in line with population growth), and now by climate change. The principal objective of the UK's NERC-funded Macronutrients LTLS research project has been to account for observable terrestrial and aquatic pools, concentrations and fluxes of C, N and P on the basis of past inputs, biotic and abiotic interactions, and transport processes. More specifically, over the last 200 years, what have been the temporal responses of plant and soil nutrient pools in different UK catchments to nutrient enrichment, and what have been the consequent effects on nutrient transfers from land to the atmosphere, freshwaters and estuaries? The work described here addresses the second question by providing an integrated quantitative description of the interlinked land and water pools and annual fluxes of C, N and P for UK catchments over time. A national-scale modelling environment has been developed, combining simple physically-based gridded models that can be parameterised using recent observations before application to long timescales. The LTLS Integrated Model (LTLS-IM) uses readily-available driving data (climate, land-use, nutrient inputs, topography), and model estimates of both terrestrial and freshwater nutrient loads have been compared with measurements from sites across the UK. Here, the focus is on the freshwater nutrient component of the LTLS-IM, but the terrestrial nutrient inputs required for this are provided by models of nutrient processes in semi-natural and agricultural systems, and from simple models of nutrients arising from human waste. In the freshwater model, lateral routing of dissolved and particulate nutrients and within-river processing such as

  16. LANDIS PRO: a landscape model that predicts forest composition and structure changes at regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Jacob S. Fraser; Frank R. Thompson; Stephen R. Shifley; Martin A. Spetich

    2014-01-01

    LANDIS PRO predicts forest composition and structure changes incorporating species-, stand-, and landscape-scales processes at regional scales. Species-scale processes include tree growth, establishment, and mortality. Stand-scale processes contain density- and size-related resource competition that regulates self-thinning and seedling establishment. Landscapescale...

  17. Do changes on MCMI-II personality disorder scales in short-term psychotherapy reflect trait or state changes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Hans Henrik; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Lotz, Martin

    2008-01-01

    The Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI) has become an important and commonly used instrument to assess personality functioning. Several studies report significant changes on MCMI personality disorder scales after psychological treatment. The aim of the study was to investigate whether pre......-post-treatment changes in 39-session psychodynamic group psychotherapy as measured with the MCMI reflect real personality change or primarily reflect symptomatic state changes. Pre-post-treatment design included 236 psychotherapy outpatients. Personality changes were measured on the MCMI-II and symptomatic state changes...... on the Symptom Check List 90-R (SCL-90-R). The MCMI Schizoid, Avoidant, Self-defeating, and severe personality disorder scales revealed substantial changes, which could be predicted from changes on SCL-90-R global symptomatology (GSI) and on the SCL-90-R Depression scale. The MCMI Dependent personality score...

  18. [[Abortion, Stigma and Conscientious Objection: Experiences and Opinions of Gynecologists in Italy and Catalonia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Zordo, Silvia

    This article discusses the issue of abortion stigma and conscientious objection based on the main results of a qualitative study carried out in hospitals providing abortion care in Italy and Spain (Catalunya). This study was aimed at examining obstetricians-gynaecologists' experiences and attitudes to abortion, or voluntary interruption of pregnancy. The abortion law is relatively liberal in these two Catholic countries (much more liberal in Spain than in Italy). However, abortion still is strongly stigmatized in the public debate on human and reproductive rights, whose focus has shifted, over the last decade, from women's rights to the "rights of the conceived". Based on a study carried out in Italy in 2011-2012 and in Spain in 2013- 2015, this article discusses the impact of the stigmatization of abortion on the quality of obstetricians-gynaecologists' training and on their professional choices concerning conscientious objection and shows how physicians contribute to reproduce abortion stigma in the two countries.

  19. Influencers of ethical beliefs and the impact on moral distress and conscientious objection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Shoni; Schrader, Vivian; Belcheir, Marcia J

    2012-11-01

    Considering a growing nurse shortage and the need for qualified nurses to handle increasingly complex patient care situations, how ethical beliefs are influenced and the consequences that can occur when moral conflicts of right and wrong arise need to be explored. The aim of this study was to explore influencers identified by nurses as having the most impact on the development of their ethical beliefs and whether these influencers might impact levels of moral distress and the potential for conscientious objection. Nurses whose ethical beliefs were most influenced by their religious beliefs scored higher in levels of moral distress and demonstrated greater differences in areas of conscientious objection than did nurses who developed their ethical beliefs from influencers such as family values, life and work experience, political views or the professional code of ethics.

  20. Climate analysis at local scale in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quenol, H.

    2013-01-01

    Issues related to climate change increasingly concern the functioning of local scale geo-systems. A global change will necessarily affect local climates. In this context, the potential impacts of climate change lead to numerous inter rogations concerning adaptation. Despite numerous studies on the impact of projected global warming on different regions global atmospheric models (GCM) are not adapted to local scales and, as a result, impacts at local scales are still approximate. Although real progress in meso-scale atmospheric modeling was realized over the past years, no operative model is in use yet to simulate climate at local scales (ten or so meters). (author)

  1. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by ... is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order ... predictand relationships are often very complex. .... constraints to solve the optimization problem. ..... social, and environmental sustainability.

  2. Problems of introduction of international standards of conscientious state financial management in Ukrainian practice

    OpenAIRE

    Anhelina, I.

    2014-01-01

    The m aintenance of the INTOSAI GOV standardssystem, which show by itself guidance from a conscientious state financial management in the field of internal control and standards of record-keeping, is generalized. The directions of the use of risk and control model COSO are determinated for the financial management of state sector in part of authentication of sources of risk, aims and duties of organization. The measures are worked out on introduction of standards of INTOSAI GOVand models of C...

  3. Who does well in life? Conscientious adults excel in both objective and subjective success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela L. Duckworth

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates how personality and cognitive ability relate to measures of objective success (income and wealth and subjective success (life satisfaction, positive affect, and lack of negative affect in a representative sample of 9,646 American adults. In cross-sectional analyses controlling for demographic covariates, cognitive ability, and other Big Five traits, conscientiousness demonstrated beneficial associations of small-to-medium magnitude with all success outcomes. In contrast, other traits demonstrated stronger, but less consistently beneficial, relations with outcomes in the same models. For instance, emotional stability demonstrated medium-to-large associations with life satisfaction and affect but a weak association with income and no association with wealth. Likewise, extraversion demonstrated medium-to-large associations with positive affect and life satisfaction but small-to-medium associations with wealth and (lack of negative affect and no association with income. Cognitive ability showed small-to-medium associations with income and wealth but no association with any aspect of subjective success. More agreeable adults were worse off in terms of objective success and life satisfaction, demonstrating small-to-medium inverse associations with those outcomes, but they did not differ from less agreeable adults in positive or negative affect. Likewise, openness to experience demonstrated small-to-medium inverse associations with every success outcome except positive affect, in which more open adults were slightly higher. Notably, in each of the five models predicting objective and subjective success outcomes, individual differences other than conscientiousness explained more variance than did conscientiousness. Thus, the benefits of conscientiousness may be remarkable more for their ubiquity than for their magnitude.

  4. Who does well in life? Conscientious adults excel in both objective and subjective success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duckworth, Angela L; Weir, David; Tsukayama, Eli; Kwok, David

    2012-01-01

    This article investigates how personality and cognitive ability relate to measures of objective success (income and wealth) and subjective success (life satisfaction, positive affect, and lack of negative affect) in a representative sample of 9,646 American adults. In cross-sectional analyses controlling for demographic covariates, cognitive ability, and other Big Five traits, conscientiousness demonstrated beneficial associations of small-to-medium magnitude with all success outcomes. In contrast, other traits demonstrated stronger, but less consistently beneficial, relations with outcomes in the same models. For instance, emotional stability demonstrated medium-to-large associations with life satisfaction and affect but a weak association with income and no association with wealth. Likewise, extraversion demonstrated medium-to-large associations with positive affect and life satisfaction but small-to-medium associations with wealth and (lack of) negative affect and no association with income. Cognitive ability showed small-to-medium associations with income and wealth but no association with any aspect of subjective success. More agreeable adults were worse off in terms of objective success and life satisfaction, demonstrating small-to-medium inverse associations with those outcomes, but they did not differ from less agreeable adults in positive or negative affect. Likewise, openness to experience demonstrated small-to-medium inverse associations with every success outcome except positive affect, in which more open adults were slightly higher. Notably, in each of the five models predicting objective and subjective success outcomes, individual differences other than conscientiousness explained more variance than did conscientiousness. Thus, the benefits of conscientiousness may be remarkable more for their ubiquity than for their magnitude.

  5. Individual differences and self-regulatory fatigue: optimism, conscientiousness, and self-consciousness

    OpenAIRE

    Nes, Lise Solberg; Carlson, Charles R.; Crofford, Leslie J.; de Leeuw, Reny; Segerstrom, Suzanne C.

    2011-01-01

    Ability to self-regulate varies and self-regulatory strength is a limited source that can be depleted or fatigued. Research on the impact of individual differences on self-regulatory capacity is still scarce, and this study aimed to examine whether personality factors such as dispositional optimism, conscientiousness, and self-consciousness can impact or buffer self-regulatory fatigue. Participants were patients diagnosed with chronic multi-symptom illnesses (N = 50), or pain free matched con...

  6. Climate change adaptation strategies by small-scale farmers in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mburu

    Climate change is a great environmental challenge facing humanity today. In Yatta District, residents report frequent crop failures, water shortages and relief food has become a frequent feature of their life. This study examines the adaptation strategies to climate change adopted by the dry-land farming communities in Yatta ...

  7. The Management of Large-Scale Change in Pakistani Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzaq, Jamila; Forde, Christine

    2014-01-01

    This article argues that although there are increasing similarities in priorities across different national education systems, contextual differences raise questions about the replication of sets of change strategies based on particular understandings of the nature of educational change across these different systems. This article begins with an…

  8. Conscientious, therefore engaged in work? Don’t take it for granted: the moderating role of workplace mistreatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Sulea

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Previous research on work engagement has mostly examined the relationship of personal resources and work characteristics with work engagement. In this study, the authors focus on the moderating role of one work characteristic, namely workplace mistreatment (i.e., abusive supervision and incivility, on the relationship between a personal resource (i.e., conscientiousness and work engagement dimensions. Using a convenience sample of employees from various organizations, the authors found support for the hypotheses that abusive supervision and incivility moderated the relationship between conscientiousness and work engagement. Specifically, the relationship between conscientiousness and two work engagement dimensions (dedication and absorption is weaker for employees experiencing abusive supervision, whereas the relationship between conscientiousness and two work engagement dimensions (vigor and dedication is weaker for employees experiencing incivility.

  9. Scaling of vegetation indices for environmental change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi, J.; Huete, A.; Sorooshian, S.; Chehbouni, A.; Kerr, Y.

    1992-01-01

    The spatial integration of physical parameters in remote sensing studies is of critical concern when evaluating the global biophysical processes on the earth's surface. When high resolution physical parameters, such as vegetation indices, are degraded for integration into global scale studies, they differ from lower spatial resolution data due to spatial variability and the method by which these parameters are integrated. In this study, multi-spatial resolution data sets of SPOT and ground based data obtained at Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in southern Arizona, US during MONSOON '90 were used. These data sets were examined to study the variations of the vegetation index parameters when integrated into coarser resolutions. Different integration methods (conventional mean and Geostatistical mean) were used in simulations of high-to-low resolutions. The sensitivity of the integrated parameters were found to vary with both the spatial variability of the area and the integration methods. Modeled equations describing the scale-dependency of the vegetation index are suggested

  10. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  11. The paradox of conscientious objection and the anemic concept of 'conscience': downplaying the role of moral integrity in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giubilini, Alberto

    2014-06-01

    Conscientious objection in health care is a form of compromise whereby health care practitioners can refuse to take part in safe, legal, and beneficial medical procedures to which they have a moral opposition (for instance abortion). Arguments in defense of conscientious objection in medicine are usually based on the value of respect for the moral integrity of practitioners. I will show that philosophical arguments in defense of conscientious objection based on respect for such moral integrity are extremely weak and, if taken seriously, lead to consequences that we would not (and should not) accept. I then propose that the best philosophical argument that defenders of conscientious objection in medicine can consistently deploy is one that appeals to (some form of) either moral relativism or subjectivism. I suggest that, unless either moral relativism or subjectivism is a valid theory--which is exactly what many defenders of conscientious objection (as well as many others) do not think--the role of moral integrity and conscientious objection in health care should be significantly downplayed and left out of the range of ethically relevant considerations.

  12. Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

    2014-12-01

    The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (Hdecreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the

  13. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall ...

  14. Scaling Factor Estimation Using an Optimized Mass Change Strategy, Part 1: Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aenlle, Manuel López; Fernández, Pelayo Fernández; Brincker, Rune

    2007-01-01

    In natural input modal analysis, only un-scaled mode shapes can be obtained. The mass change method is, in many cases, the simplest way to estimate the scaling factors, which involves repeated modal testing after changing the mass in different points of the structure where the mode shapes are known....... The scaling factors are determined using the natural frequencies and mode shapes of both the modified and the unmodified structure. However, the uncertainty on the scaling factor estimation depends on the modal analysis and the mass change strategy (number, magnitude and location of the masses) used to modify...

  15. Scaling of the magnetic entropy change of Fe3−xMnxSi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Said, M.R.; Hamam, Y.A.; Abu-Aljarayesh, I.

    2014-01-01

    The magnetic entropy change of Fe 3−x Mn x Si (for x=1.15, 1.3 and 1.5) has been extracted from isothermal magnetization measurements near the Curie temperature. We used the scaling hypotheses of the thermodynamic potentials to scale the magnetic entropy change to a single universal curve for each sample. The effect of the exchange field and the Curie temperature on the maximum entropy change is discussed. - Highlights: • The maximum of the magnetic entropy change occurs at temperatures T>T C . • The exchange field enhances the magnetic entropy change. • The magnetic entropy change at T C is inversely proportional to T C . • Scaling hypothesis is used to scale the magnetic entropy change

  16. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  17. Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longobardi, Patrick; Montenegro, Alvaro; Beltrami, Hugo; Eby, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change.

  18. Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Longobardi

    Full Text Available Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change.

  19. Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.

    2014-02-01

    The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

  20. Mycorrhizas and global environmental change: Research at different scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staddon, P.L.; Heinemeyer, A.; Fitter, A.H.

    2002-01-01

    Global environmental change (GEC), in particular rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature, will affect most ecosystems. The varied responses of plants to these aspects of GEC are well documented. As with other key below-ground components of terrestrial ecosystems, the response...... of the ubiquitous mycorrhizal fungal root symbionts has received limited attention. Most of the research on the effects of GEC on mycorrhizal fungi has been pot-based with a few field (especially monoculture) studies. A major question that arises in all these studies is whether the GEC effects on the mycorrhizal...

  1. Pore-scale modeling of phase change in porous media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juanes, Ruben; Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis; Fu, Xiaojing

    2017-11-01

    One of the main open challenges in pore-scale modeling is the direct simulation of flows involving multicomponent mixtures with complex phase behavior. Reservoir fluid mixtures are often described through cubic equations of state, which makes diffuse interface, or phase field theories, particularly appealing as a modeling framework. What is still unclear is whether equation-of-state-driven diffuse-interface models can adequately describe processes where surface tension and wetting phenomena play an important role. Here we present a diffuse interface model of single-component, two-phase flow (a van der Waals fluid) in a porous medium under different wetting conditions. We propose a simplified Darcy-Korteweg model that is appropriate to describe flow in a Hele-Shaw cell or a micromodel, with a gap-averaged velocity. We study the ability of the diffuse-interface model to capture capillary pressure and the dynamics of vaporization/condensation fronts, and show that the model reproduces pressure fluctuations that emerge from abrupt interface displacements (Haines jumps) and from the break-up of wetting films.

  2. Conscientious objection to sexual and reproductive health services: international human rights standards and European law and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zampas, Christina; Andión-Ibañez, Ximena

    2012-06-01

    The practice of conscientious objection often arises in the area of individuals refusing to fulfil compulsory military service requirements and is based on the right to freedom of thought, conscience and religion as protected by national, international and regional human rights law. The practice of conscientious objection also arises in the field of health care, when individual health care providers or institutions refuse to provide certain health services based on religious, moral or philosophical objections. The use of conscientious objection by health care providers to reproductive health care services, including abortion, contraceptive prescriptions, and prenatal tests, among other services is a growing phenomena throughout Europe. However, despite recent progress from the European Court of Human Rights on this issue (RR v. Poland, 2011), countries and international and regional bodies generally have failed to comprehensively and effectively regulate this practice, denying many women reproductive health care services they are legally entitled to receive. The Italian Ministry of Health reported that in 2008 nearly 70% of gynaecologists in Italy refuse to perform abortions on moral grounds. It found that between 2003 and 2007 the number of gynaecologists invoking conscientious objection in their refusal to perform an abortion rose from 58.7 percent to 69.2 percent. Italy is not alone in Europe, for example, the practice is prevalent in Poland, Slovakia, and is growing in the United Kingdom. This article outlines the international and regional human rights obligations and medical standards on this issue, and highlights some of the main gaps in these standards. It illustrates how European countries regulate or fail to regulate conscientious objection and how these regulations are working in practice, including examples of jurisprudence from national level courts and cases before the European Court of Human Rights. Finally, the article will provide recommendations

  3. Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; Eupen, van Michiel; Bloh, von Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a

  4. Testing relations of crystallized and fluid intelligence and the incremental predictive validity of conscientiousness and its facets on career success in a small sample of German and Swiss workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priska eHagmann-von Arx

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the relation of fluid and crystallized intelligence with extrinsic (occupational skill level, income and intrinsic (job satisfaction career success as well as the incremental predictive validity of conscientiousness and its facets. Participants (N = 121 completed the Reynolds Intellectual Assessment Scales (RIAS, the Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R and reported their occupational skill level, income and job satisfaction. Results revealed that crystallized intelligence was positively related to occupational skill level, but not to income. The association of crystallized intelligence and job satisfaction was negative and stronger for the lowest occupational skill level, whereas it was non-significant for higher levels. Fluid intelligence showed no association with career success. Beyond intelligence, conscientiousness and its facet self-discipline were associated with income, whereas conscientiousness and its facets competence and achievement striving were associated with job satisfaction. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for the assessment process as well as for future research to adequately predict career success.

  5. Changing the scale of hydrogeophysical aquifer heterogeneity characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paradis, Daniel; Tremblay, Laurie; Ruggeri, Paolo; Brunet, Patrick; Fabien-Ouellet, Gabriel; Gloaguen, Erwan; Holliger, Klaus; Irving, James; Molson, John; Lefebvre, Rene

    2015-04-01

    Contaminant remediation and management require the quantitative predictive capabilities of groundwater flow and mass transport numerical models. Such models have to encompass source zones and receptors, and thus typically cover several square kilometers. To predict the path and fate of contaminant plumes, these models have to represent the heterogeneous distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K). However, hydrogeophysics has generally been used to image relatively restricted areas of the subsurface (small fractions of km2), so there is a need for approaches defining heterogeneity at larger scales and providing data to constrain conceptual and numerical models of aquifer systems. This communication describes a workflow defining aquifer heterogeneity that was applied over a 12 km2 sub-watershed surrounding a decommissioned landfill emitting landfill leachate. The aquifer is a shallow, 10 to 20 m thick, highly heterogeneous and anisotropic assemblage of littoral sand and silt. Field work involved the acquisition of a broad range of data: geological, hydraulic, geophysical, and geochemical. The emphasis was put on high resolution and continuous hydrogeophysical data, the use of direct-push fully-screened wells and the acquisition of targeted high-resolution hydraulic data covering the range of observed aquifer materials. The main methods were: 1) surface geophysics (ground-penetrating radar and electrical resistivity); 2) direct-push operations with a geotechnical drilling rig (cone penetration tests with soil moisture resistivity CPT/SMR; full-screen well installation); and 3) borehole operations, including high-resolution hydraulic tests and geochemical sampling. New methods were developed to acquire high vertical resolution hydraulic data in direct-push wells, including both vertical and horizontal K (Kv and Kh). Various data integration approaches were used to represent aquifer properties in 1D, 2D and 3D. Using relevant vector machines (RVM), the mechanical and

  6. A new type of change blindness: smooth, isoluminant color changes are monitored on a coarse spatial scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, Erin; Clifford, Colin W G

    2013-04-22

    Attending selectively to changes in our visual environment may help filter less important, unchanging information within a scene. Here, we demonstrate that color changes can go unnoticed even when they occur throughout an otherwise static image. The novelty of this demonstration is that it does not rely upon masking by a visual disruption or stimulus motion, nor does it require the change to be very gradual and restricted to a small section of the image. Using a two-interval, forced-choice change-detection task and an odd-one-out localization task, we showed that subjects were slowest to respond and least accurate (implying that change was hardest to detect) when the color changes were isoluminant, smoothly varying, and asynchronous with one another. This profound change blindness offers new constraints for theories of visual change detection, implying that, in the absence of transient signals, changes in color are typically monitored at a coarse spatial scale.

  7. Scaling Factor Estimation Using Optimized Mass Change Strategy, Part 2: Experimental Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernández, Pelayo Fernández; Aenlle, Manuel López; Garcia, Luis M. Villa

    2007-01-01

    The mass change method is used to estimate the scaling factors, the uncertainty is reduced when, for each mode, the frequency shift is maximized and the changes in the mode shapes are minimized, which in turn, depends on the mass change strategy chosen to modify the dynamic behavior of the struct...

  8. CHANG-ES. IX. Radio scale heights and scale lengths of a consistent sample of 13 spiral galaxies seen edge-on and their correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Marita; Irwin, Judith; Wiegert, Theresa; Miskolczi, Arpad; Damas-Segovia, Ancor; Beck, Rainer; Li, Jiang-Tao; Heald, George; Müller, Peter; Stein, Yelena; Rand, Richard J.; Heesen, Volker; Walterbos, Rene A. M.; Dettmar, Ralf-Jürgen; Vargas, Carlos J.; English, Jayanne; Murphy, Eric J.

    2018-03-01

    Aim. The vertical halo scale height is a crucial parameter to understand the transport of cosmic-ray electrons (CRE) and their energy loss mechanisms in spiral galaxies. Until now, the radio scale height could only be determined for a few edge-on galaxies because of missing sensitivity at high resolution. Methods: We developed a sophisticated method for the scale height determination of edge-on galaxies. With this we determined the scale heights and radial scale lengths for a sample of 13 galaxies from the CHANG-ES radio continuum survey in two frequency bands. Results: The sample average values for the radio scale heights of the halo are 1.1 ± 0.3 kpc in C-band and 1.4 ± 0.7 kpc in L-band. From the frequency dependence analysis of the halo scale heights we found that the wind velocities (estimated using the adiabatic loss time) are above the escape velocity. We found that the halo scale heights increase linearly with the radio diameters. In order to exclude the diameter dependence, we defined a normalized scale height h˜ which is quite similar for all sample galaxies at both frequency bands and does not depend on the star formation rate or the magnetic field strength. However, h˜ shows a tight anticorrelation with the mass surface density. Conclusions: The sample galaxies with smaller scale lengths are more spherical in the radio emission, while those with larger scale lengths are flatter. The radio scale height depends mainly on the radio diameter of the galaxy. The sample galaxies are consistent with an escape-dominated radio halo with convective cosmic ray propagation, indicating that galactic winds are a widespread phenomenon in spiral galaxies. While a higher star formation rate or star formation surface density does not lead to a higher wind velocity, we found for the first time observational evidence of a gravitational deceleration of CRE outflow, e.g. a lowering of the wind velocity from the galactic disk.

  9. Happy Now, Tired Later? Extraverted and Conscientious Behavior Are Related to Immediate Mood Gains, but to Later Fatigue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leikas, Sointu; Ilmarinen, Ville-Juhani

    2017-10-01

    Experience sampling studies on Big Five-related behavior show that people display the whole spectrum of each trait in their daily behavior, and that desirable Big Five states-especially state Extraversion-are related to positive mood. However, other research lines suggest that extraverted and conscientious behavior may be mentally depleting. The present research examined this possibility by extending the time frame of the measured personality processes. A 12-day experience sampling study (N = 48; observations = 2,328) measured Big Five states, mood, stress, and fatigue five times a day. Extraverted and conscientious behavior were concurrently related to positive mood and lower fatigue, but to higher fatigue after a 3-hour delay. These relations were not moderated by personality traits. The relation between extraverted behavior and delayed fatigue was mediated by the number of people the person had encountered. Whether the person had a goal mediated the relation between conscientious behavior and delayed fatigue. Extraverted and conscientious behavior predict mental depletion after a 3-hour delay. The results help reconcile previous findings regarding the consequences of state Extraversion and provide novel information about the consequences of state Conscientiousness. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Testing the Classroom Citizenship Behaviors Scale: Exploring the Association of Classroom Citizenship Behaviors and Student Traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katt, James; Miller, Ann Neville; Brown, Tim

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated the reliability and validity of Myers and colleagues' Classroom Citizenship Behavior scale, as well as the relationship between student personality traits (extraversion, neuroticism, agreeableness, conscientiousness, openness, and communication apprehension) and CCBs. Two hundred and thirteen students completed…

  11. Leading Educational Change and Improvement at Scale: Some Inconvenient Truths about System Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Alma; Jones, Michelle

    2017-01-01

    The challenges of securing educational change and transformation, at scale, remain considerable. While sustained progress has been made in some education systems (Fullan, 2009; Hargreaves & Shirley, 2009) generally, it remains the case that the pathway to large-scale, system improvement is far from easy or straightforward. While large-scale…

  12. [Position paper from the Department of Ethics of the Chilean College of Physicians about conscientious objection].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salas, Sofía P; Besio, Mauricio; Bórquez Estefó, Gladys; Salinas, Rodrigo A; Valenzuela, Carlos Y; Micolich, Constanza; Novoa Sotta, Fernando; Bernier Villarroel, Lioniel; Montt M, Julio; Misseroni Raddatz, Adelio

    2016-03-01

    The Chilean bill that regulates abortion for three cases (Bulletin Nº 9895-11) includes the possibility that health professionals may manifest their conscientious objection (CO) to perform this procedure. Due to the broad impact that the issue of C O had, the Ethics Department of the Chilean College of Physicians considered important to review this concept and its ethical and legal basis, especially in the field of sexual and reproductive health. In the present document, we define the practical limit s of CO, both for the proper fulfillment of the medical profession obligations, and for the due respect and non-discrimination that the professional objector deserves. We analyze the denial of some health institutions to perform abortions if it is legalize d, and we end with recommendations adjusted to the Chilean reality. Specifically, we recognize the right to conscientious objection that all physicians who directly participate in a professional act have. But we a lso recognize that physicians have ineludib le obligations towards their patients, including the obligation to inform about the existence of this service, how to access to it and -as set out in our code of ethics- to ensure that another colleague will continue attending the patient.

  13. Employee conscientiousness, agreeableness, and supervisor justice rule compliance: A three-study investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jason L; Cropanzano, Russell; Li, Andrew; Shao, Ping; Zhang, Xin-An; Li, Yuhui

    2017-11-01

    Researchers have paid limited attention to what makes organizational authority figures decide to treat their employees either justly or unjustly. Drawing from the actor-focused model of justice, as well as the stereotype content model, we argue that employee conscientiousness and agreeableness can impact the extent to which supervisors adhere to normative rules for distributive, procedural, informational, and interpersonal justice, as a result of supervisors' evaluations of their employees' effort and their liking of the employees. Supervisory compliance with justice rules may, in turn, impact the extent to which employees judge themselves to be treated either justly or unjustly. We tested these possibilities in 3 studies. In Study 1, we utilized a meta-analysis to demonstrate positive relationships between employees' conscientiousness, agreeableness, and their justice perceptions. In Study 2, we conducted 3 experiments to test the causal relationship between employee personality and supervisor intentions to comply with justice rules. In Study 3, we conducted an employee-supervisor dyadic field survey to examine the entire mediation model. Results are discussed in terms of the potential roles that both employees and supervisors may play in shaping employees' justice perceptions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Conscientious Objection to Harmful Animal Use within Veterinary and Other Biomedical Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Knight

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Laboratory classes in which animals are seriously harmed or killed, or which use cadavers or body parts from ethically debatable sources, are controversial within veterinary and other biomedical curricula. Along with the development of more humane teaching methods, this has increasingly led to objections to participation in harmful animal use. Such cases raise a host of issues of importance to universities, including those pertaining to curricular design and course accreditation, and compliance with applicable animal welfare and antidiscrimination legislation. Accordingly, after detailed investigation, some universities have implemented formal policies to guide faculty responses to such cases, and to ensure that decisions are consistent and defensible from legal and other policy perspectives. However, many other institutions have not yet done so, instead dealing with such cases on an ad hoc basis as they arise. Among other undesirable outcomes this can lead to insufficient student and faculty preparation, suboptimal and inconsistent responses, and greater likelihood of legal challenge. Accordingly, this paper provides pertinent information about the evolution of conscientious objection policies within Australian veterinary schools, and about the jurisprudential bases for conscientious objection within Australia and the USA. It concludes with recommendations for the development and implementation of policy within this arena.

  15. Obsessive, compulsive, and conscientious? The relationship between OCPD and personality traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mike, Anissa; King, Hannah; Oltmanns, Thomas F; Jackson, Joshua J

    2017-12-22

    Obsessive-compulsive personality disorder (OCPD) is defined as being overly controlling, rigid, orderly, and perfectionistic. At a definitional level, OCPD would appear to be highly related to the trait of Conscientiousness. The current study attempts to disentangle this relationship by examining the relationship at a facet level using multiple forms of OCPD assessment and using multiple reports of OCPD and personality. In addition, the relationship between OCPD and each Big Five trait was examined. The study relied on a sample of 1,630 adults who completed self-reports of personality and OCPD. Informants and interviewers also completed reports on the targets. Bifactor models were constructed in order to disentangle variance attributable to each facet and its general factors. Across four sets of analyses, individuals who scored higher on OCPD tended to be more orderly and achievement striving, and more set in their ways, but less generally conscientious. OCPD was also related to select facets under each Big Five trait. Notably, findings indicated that OCPD has a strong interpersonal component and that OCPD tendencies may interfere with one's relationships with others. Findings suggest that OCPD's relationship with personality can be more precisely explained through its relationships with specific tendencies rather than general, higher-order traits. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Conscientious students: More successful at school, none the happier for it

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovanović Veljko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of numerous studies indicate that besides intellectual abilities, personality features figure as the strongest predictors of academic achievement. This research is aimed at exploring the relationship between personality features and academic achievement in secondary school students, as well as at testing whether academic achievement is one of the mechanisms suitable for explaining the relationship between personality features and the subjective well-being of students. The research included 408 students, with the average age of 16 years and 6 months. The results indicate that in both girls and boys a significant predictor of academic achievement is only the feature of conscientiousness. However, in conscientious students, higher academic achievement does not yield higher satisfaction with school and life, nor more frequent experiencing of pleasant emotions. Academic achievement is neither connected with openness towards experience nor with curiosity. The paper discusses practical implications of these findings and offers suggestions for future research. [Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179006: Nasledni, sredinski i psihološki činioci mentalnog zdravlja i br. 179022: Efekti egzistencijalne nesigurnosti na pojedinca i porodicu u Srbiji

  17. Striking a balance: conscientious objection and reproductive health care from the Colombian perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabal, Luisa; Olaya, Monica Arango; Robledo, Valentina Montoya

    2014-12-11

    Conscientious Objection or conscientious refusal (CO) in access to reproductive health care is at the center of current legal debates worldwide. In countries such as the US and the UK, constitutional dilemmas surrounding CO in the context of reproductive health services reveal inadequate policy frameworks for balancing CO rights with women's rights to access contraception and abortion. The Colombian Constitutional Court's holistic jurisprudence regarding CO standards has applied international human rights norms so as to not only protect women's reproductive rights as fundamental rights, but to also introduce clear limits for the exercise of CO in health care settings. This paper reviews Latin American lines of regulation in Argentina, Uruguay, and Mexico City to argue that the Colombian Court's jurisprudence offers a strong guidance for future comprehensive policy approaches that aim to effectively balance tensions between CO and women's reproductive rights. Copyright © 2014 Cabal, Olaya, Robledo. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

  18. Abortion and conscientious objection: rethinking conflicting rights in the Mexican context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Millán, Gustavo

    2018-01-01

    Since 2007, when Mexico City decriminalized abortion during the first trimester, a debate has been taking place regarding abortion and the right to conscientious objection (CO). Many people argue that, since the provision of abortions (or "legal terminations of pregnancy" as they are called under Mexico City's law) is now a statutory duty of healthcare personnel there can be no place for "conscientious objection." Others claim that, even if such an objection were to be allowed, it should not be seen as a right, since talk about a right to CO may lead to a slippery slope where we may end up recognizing a right to disobey the law. In this paper, I argue that there is a right to CO and that this may be justified through the notions of autonomy and integrity, which a liberal democracy should respect. However, it cannot be an absolute right, and in the case of abortion, it conflicts with women's reproductive rights. Therefore, CO should be carefully regulated so that it does not obstruct the exercise of women's reproductive rights. Regulation should address questions about who is entitled to object, how such objection should take place, and what can legitimately be objected to.

  19. Change Analysis and Decision Tree Based Detection Model for Residential Objects across Multiple Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHEN Liyan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Change analysis and detection plays important role in the updating of multi-scale databases.When overlap an updated larger-scale dataset and a to-be-updated smaller-scale dataset,people usually focus on temporal changes caused by the evolution of spatial entities.Little attention is paid to the representation changes influenced by map generalization.Using polygonal building data as an example,this study examines the changes from different perspectives,such as the reasons for their occurrence,their performance format.Based on this knowledge,we employ decision tree in field of machine learning to establish a change detection model.The aim of the proposed model is to distinguish temporal changes that need to be applied as updates to the smaller-scale dataset from representation changes.The proposed method is validated through tests using real-world building data from Guangzhou city.The experimental results show the overall precision of change detection is more than 90%,which indicates our method is effective to identify changed objects.

  20. Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale: Challenges and opportunities for future research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogger, M.; Agnoletti, M.; Alaoui, A.; Bathurst, J. C.; Bodner, G.; Borga, M.; Chaplot, V.; Gallart, F.; Glatzel, G.; Hall, J.; Holden, J.; Holko, L.; Horn, R.; Kiss, A.; Kohnová, S.; Leitinger, G.; Lennartz, B.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.; Peth, S.; Plavcová, L.; Quinton, J. N.; Robinson, M.; Salinas, J. L.; Santoro, A.; Szolgay, J.; Tron, S.; van den Akker, J. J. H.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2017-07-01

    Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long-term experiments on physical-chemical-biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology.

  1. Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

    2016-01-01

    Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

  2. ANALYSING ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES - THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE SCALE OF CHANGE AND EMPLOYEES ATTITUDES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ujhelyi Maria

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In the 21st century all organizations have to cope with challenges caused by trigger events in the environment. The key to organizational success is how fast and efficiently they are able to react. In 2014 we conducted a research survey on this topic with the contribution of Hungarian students on Bachelor courses in Business Administration and Management. They visited organizations which had gone through a significant programme of change within the last 5 years. The owners, managers or HR managers responsible for changes were asked to fill in the questionnaires about the features of these organisational changes. Several issues regarding change management were covered, besides general information about the companies. Respondents were asked about the trigger events and the nature of changes, and about the process of change and participation in it. One group of questions asked leaders about employees’ attitude to change, another section sought information about the methods used in the process. In this paper, after a short literature review, we will analyse the adaptation methods used by organizations and the connection between the scope of change and employees’ attitude toward change.

  3. Prevalence and Predictors of Personality Change After Severe Brain Injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Norup, Anne; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

    2015-01-01

    of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey. Results Of the sample, 59.1% experienced personality change after acquired brain injury, and the most dominant changes were observed in the personality traits of neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness. Changes in neuroticism were most......Objectives To investigate the prevalence of personality change after severe brain injury; to identify predictors of personality change; and to investigate whether personality change is associated with distress in family members. Design A longitudinal study of personality change. Setting...... often observed in patients with frontal or temporal lesions. Generally, personality changes in patients were not associated with more distress and lower HRQOL in family members; however, change in patient agreeableness was associated with lower HRQOL on the role limitations-emotional scale. Conclusions...

  4. Scale changes in air quality modelling and assessment of associated uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korsakissok, Irene

    2009-01-01

    After an introduction of issues related to a scale change in the field of air quality (existing scales for emissions, transport, turbulence and loss processes, hierarchy of data and models, methods of scale change), the author first presents Gaussian models which have been implemented within the Polyphemus modelling platform. These models are assessed by comparison with experimental observations and with other commonly used Gaussian models. The second part reports the coupling of the puff-based Gaussian model with the Eulerian Polair3D model for the sub-mesh processing of point sources. This coupling is assessed at the continental scale for a passive tracer, and at the regional scale for photochemistry. Different statistical methods are assessed

  5. Theory-Driven Intervention for Changing Personality: Expectancy Value Theory, Behavioral Activation, and Conscientiousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magidson, Jessica F.; Roberts, Brent W.; Collado-Rodriguez, Anahi; Lejuez, C. W.

    2014-01-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that personality traits may be changeable, raising the possibility that personality traits most linked to health problems can be modified with intervention. A growing body of research suggests that problematic personality traits may be altered with behavioral intervention using a bottom-up approach. That is, by…

  6. Adapting crop management practices to climate change: Modeling optimal solutions at the field scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehmann, N.; Finger, R.; Klein, T.; Calanca, P.; Walter, A.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will alter the environmental conditions for crop growth and require adjustments in management practices at the field scale. In this paper, we analyzed the impacts of two different climate change scenarios on optimal field management practices in winterwheat and grain maize production

  7. Extreme daily precipitation in Western Europe with climate change at appropriate spatial scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.

    2002-01-01

    Extreme daily precipitation for the current and changed climate at appropriate spatial scales is assessed. This is done in the context of the impact of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse in Western Europe. The objective is achieved by determining and comparing extreme precipitation from

  8. Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilts, Thomas E.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Leitner, Phillip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd C.

    2016-01-01

    Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

  9. Land cover change or land use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.

    2013-01-01

    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land

  10. Surface changes of metal alloys and high-strength ceramics after ultrasonic scaling and intraoral polishing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Hyung-In; Noh, Hyo-Mi; Park, Eun-Jin

    2017-06-01

    This study was to evaluate the effect of repeated ultrasonic scaling and surface polishing with intraoral polishing kits on the surface roughness of three different restorative materials. A total of 15 identical discs were fabricated with three different materials. The ultrasonic scaling was conducted for 20 seconds on the test surfaces. Subsequently, a multi-step polishing with recommended intraoral polishing kit was performed for 30 seconds. The 3D profiler and scanning electron microscopy were used to investigate surface integrity before scaling (pristine), after scaling, and after surface polishing for each material. Non-parametric Friedman and Wilcoxon signed rank sum tests were employed to statistically evaluate surface roughness changes of the pristine, scaled, and polished specimens. The level of significance was set at 0.05. Surface roughness values before scaling (pristine), after scaling, and polishing of the metal alloys were 3.02±0.34 µm, 2.44±0.72 µm, and 3.49±0.72 µm, respectively. Surface roughness of lithium disilicate increased from 2.35±1.05 µm (pristine) to 28.54±9.64 µm (scaling), and further increased after polishing (56.66±9.12 µm, P scaling (from 1.65±0.42 µm to 101.37±18.75 µm), while its surface roughness decreased after polishing (29.57±18.86 µm, P scaling significantly changed the surface integrities of lithium disilicate and zirconia. Surface polishing with multi-step intraoral kit after repeated scaling was only effective for the zirconia, while it was not for lithium disilicate.

  11. Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scales are a visible peeling or flaking of outer skin layers. These layers are called the stratum ... Scales may be caused by dry skin, certain inflammatory skin conditions, or infections. Examples of disorders that ...

  12. NEGATIVE AFFECTIVITY, CONSCIENTIOUSNESS AND JOB SCOPE (A CASE OF IT AND TELECOM INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BILAL AFSAR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on a sample of 350 employees in the telecommunication and telecommunication, we obtained empirical evidence suggesting that while individuals high on conscientiousness tended to react more positively to job scope, individuals high on negative affinity tended to react less positively. Job scope was defined as the extent to which a job required the jobholder to be mentally and physically involved to get it done effectively. Typically, a job characterized by a high job scope would be non-repetitive, would need a great deal of independent thought/action and training, would entail the job holder to keep track of his/her progress, and others. The affirmative results obtained in regard of the moderating roles of personality factors in the present study suggested that job design researchers should further explore individuals’ personality differences in response to job scope.

  13. Shape shifting predicts ontogenetic changes in metabolic scaling in diverse aquatic invertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glazier, Douglas S; Hirst, Andrew G; Atkinson, David

    2015-03-07

    Metabolism fuels all biological activities, and thus understanding its variation is fundamentally important. Much of this variation is related to body size, which is commonly believed to follow a 3/4-power scaling law. However, during ontogeny, many kinds of animals and plants show marked shifts in metabolic scaling that deviate from 3/4-power scaling predicted by general models. Here, we show that in diverse aquatic invertebrates, ontogenetic shifts in the scaling of routine metabolic rate from near isometry (bR = scaling exponent approx. 1) to negative allometry (bR < 1), or the reverse, are associated with significant changes in body shape (indexed by bL = the scaling exponent of the relationship between body mass and body length). The observed inverse correlations between bR and bL are predicted by metabolic scaling theory that emphasizes resource/waste fluxes across external body surfaces, but contradict theory that emphasizes resource transport through internal networks. Geometric estimates of the scaling of surface area (SA) with body mass (bA) further show that ontogenetic shifts in bR and bA are positively correlated. These results support new metabolic scaling theory based on SA influences that may be applied to ontogenetic shifts in bR shown by many kinds of animals and plants. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  14. Past and future changes in streamflow in the U.S. Midwest: Bridging across time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarini, G.; Slater, L. J.; Salvi, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflows have increased notably across the U.S. Midwest over the past century, principally due to changes in precipitation and land use / land cover. Improving our understanding of the physical drivers that are responsible for the observed changes in discharge may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes, and may have large implications for water resources management over this area. This study will highlight our efforts towards the statistical attribution of changes in discharge across the U.S. Midwest, with analyses performed at the seasonal scale from low to high flows. The main drivers of changing streamflows that we focus on are: urbanization, agricultural land cover, basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture. Building on the insights from this attribution, we will examine the potential predictability of streamflow across different time scales, with lead times ranging from seasonal to decadal, and discuss a potential path forward for engineering design for future conditions.

  15. Acculturation, Enculturation, Ethnic Identity, and Conscientiousness as Predictors of Latino Boys' and Girls' Career Decision Self-Efficacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojeda, Lizette; Pina-Watson, Brandy; Castillo, Linda G.; Castillo, Rosalinda; Khan, Noshaba; Leigh, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the role of culture and personality on the career decision self-efficacy of 338 Latino seventh-grade public middle school students. Specifically, we examined the role of acculturation, enculturation, ethnic identity, and conscientiousness on career decision self-efficacy. Findings indicated Latina girls were more acculturated…

  16. The impact of conscientiousness, mastery, and work circumstances on subsequent absenteeism in employees with and without affective disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Almar A L; Plaisier, Inger; Smit, Johannes H; Penninx, Brenda W J H

    2017-03-29

    High numbers of employees are coping with affective disorders. At the same time, ambitiousness, achievement striving and a strong sense of personal control and responsibility are personality characteristics that are nowadays regarded as key to good work functioning, whereas social work circumstances tend to be neglected. However, it is largely unkown how personality characteristics and work circumstances affect work functioning when facing an affective disorder. Given the high burden of affective disorders on occupational health, we investigate these issues in the context of affective disorders and absenteeism from work. The principal aim of this paper is to examine whether particular personality characteristics that reflect self-governance (conscientiousness and mastery) and work circumstances (demands, control, support) influence the impact of affective disorders on long-term absenteeism (>10 working days). Baseline and 1-year follow-up data from 1249 participants in the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) in 2004-2006 was employed. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed, including interaction effects between depressive, anxiety, and comorbid disorders and personality and work circumstances. In general, mastery and conscientiousness increased nor diminished odds of subsequent long-term absenteeism, whereas higher job support significantly decreased these odds. Interaction effects showed that the impact of affective disorders on absenteeism was stronger for highly conscientious employees and for employees who experienced high job demands. Affective disorders may particularly severely affect work functioning of employees who are highly conscientious or face high psychological job demands. Adjusting working conditions to their individual needs may prevent excessive work absence.

  17. Rotation and scale change invariant point pattern relaxation matching by the Hopfield neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sang, Nong; Zhang, Tianxu

    1997-12-01

    Relaxation matching is one of the most relevant methods for image matching. The original relaxation matching technique using point patterns is sensitive to rotations and scale changes. We improve the original point pattern relaxation matching technique to be invariant to rotations and scale changes. A method that makes the Hopfield neural network perform this matching process is discussed. An advantage of this is that the relaxation matching process can be performed in real time with the neural network's massively parallel capability to process information. Experimental results with large simulated images demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the method to perform point patten relaxation matching invariant to rotations and scale changes and the method to perform this matching by the Hopfield neural network. In addition, we show that the method presented can be tolerant to small random error.

  18. Large scale atmospheric tropical circulation changes and consequences during global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gastineau, G.

    2008-01-01

    The changes of the tropical large scale circulation during climate change can have large impacts on human activities. In a first part, the meridional atmospheric tropical circulation was studied in the different coupled models. During climate change, we find, on the one hand, that the Hadley meridional circulation and the subtropical jet are significantly shifted poleward, and on the other hand, that the intensity of the tropical circulation weakens. The slow down of the atmospheric circulation results from the dry static stability changes affecting the tropical troposphere. Secondly, idealized simulations are used to explain the tropical circulation changes. Ensemble simulation using the model LMDZ4 are set up to study the results from the coupled model IPSLCM4. The weakening of the large scale tropical circulation and the poleward shift of the Hadley cells are explained by both the uniform change and the meridional gradient change of the sea surface temperature. Then, we used the atmospheric model LMDZ4 in an aqua-planet configuration. The Hadley circulation changes are explained in a simple framework by the required poleward energy transport. In a last part, we focus on the water vapor distribution and feedback in the climate models. The Hadley circulation changes were shown to have a significant impact on the water vapour feedback during climate change. (author)

  19. Watershed scale response to climate change--Trout Lake Basin, Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

    2012-01-01

    General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation.

  20. Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; van Eupen, Michiel; von Bloh, Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2016-11-01

    Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, T.G.

    1994-02-01

    The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop's University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database

  2. The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shepherd, T.G. [ed.

    1994-02-01

    The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop`s University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database.

  3. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Ni, J, E-mail: nan.lu@utoledo.ed, E-mail: burkhard.wilske@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jni@ibcas.ac.c, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jiquan.chen@utoledo.ed [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  4. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J; Ni, J

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  5. A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.R. Magness; J.M. Morton; F. Huettmann; F.S. Chapin; A.D. McGuire

    2011-01-01

    Rapid climate change, in conjunction with other anthropogenic drivers, has the potential to cause mass species extinction. To minimize this risk, conservation reserves need to be coordinated at multiple spatial scales because the climate envelopes of many species may shift rapidly across large geographic areas. In addition, novel species assemblages and ecological...

  6. Variations in tropical convection as an amplifier of global climate change at the millennial scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ivanochkoa, T.S.; Ganeshram, R.S.; Brummer, G.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Moreton, S.G.; Kroon, D.

    2005-01-01

    The global expression of millennial-scale climatic change during the glacial period and the persistence of this signal in Holocene records point to atmospheric teleconnections as the mechanism propagating rapid climate variations. We suggest rearrangements in the tropical convection system globally

  7. Impact of water quality change on corrosion scales in full and partially replaced lead service lines

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundChanges in water qualities have been associated with an increase in lead release from full and partial lead service lines (LSLs), such as the cases of Washington D.C. or more recently of Flint (Mi). Water qualities affect the mineralogy of the scales. Furthermore, follo...

  8. Service Providers’ Willingness to Change as Innovation Inductor in Services: Validating a Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Figueiredo Moreir

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the willingness of service providers to incorporate changes suggested by clients altering previously planned services during its delivery, hereby named Willingness to Change in Services [WCS]. We apply qualitative research techniques to map seven dimensions related to this phenomenon: Client relationship management; Organizational conditions for change; Software characteristics and development; Conditions affecting teams; Administrative procedures and decision-making conditions; Entrepreneurial behavior; Interaction with supporting organizations. These dimensions have been converted into variables composing a WCS scale later submitted to theoretical and semantic validations. A scale with 26 variables resulted from such procedures was applied on a large survey carried out with 351 typical Brazilian software development service companies operating all over the country. Data from our sample have been submitted to multivariate statistical analysis to provide validation for the scale. After factorial analysis procedures, 24 items have been validated and assigned to three factors representative of WCS: Organizational Routines and Values – 12 variables; Organizational Structure for Change – 6 variables; and Service Specificities – 6 variables. As future contributions, we expect to see further testing for the WCS scale on alternative service activities to provide evidence about its limits and contributions to general service innovation theory.

  9. Modelling land change: the issue of use and cover in wide-scale applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the underlying causes for the apparent mismatch between land cover and land use in the context of wide-scale land change modelling are explored. A land use-land cover (LU/LC) ratio is proposed as a relevant landscape characteristic. The one-to-one ratio between land use and land

  10. Evaluating Change in Behavioral Preferences: Multidimensional Scaling Single-Ideal Point Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Cody

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of the article is to propose a multidimensional scaling single-ideal point model as a method to evaluate changes in individuals' preferences under the explicit methodological framework of behavioral preference assessment. One example is used to illustrate the approach for a clear idea of what this approach can accomplish.

  11. Cloud-based computation for accelerating vegetation mapping and change detection at regional to national scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew J. Gregory; Zhiqiang Yang; David M. Bell; Warren B. Cohen; Sean Healey; Janet L. Ohmann; Heather M. Roberts

    2015-01-01

    Mapping vegetation and landscape change at fine spatial scales is needed to inform natural resource and conservation planning, but such maps are expensive and time-consuming to produce. For Landsat-based methodologies, mapping efforts are hampered by the daunting task of manipulating multivariate data for millions to billions of pixels. The advent of cloud-based...

  12. Cross-Cultural Validation of Stages of Exercise Change Scale among Chinese College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Xiaofen D.; Guan, Jianmin; Huang, Yong; Deng, Mingying; Wu, Yifeng; Qu, Shuhua

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to test the cross-cultural concurrent validity of the stages of exercise change scale (SECS) in Chinese college students. The original SECS was translated into Chinese (C-SECS). Students from four Chinese universities (N = 1843) participated in the study. The leisure-time exercise (LTE) questionnaire was used to…

  13. Large Scale Chromosome Folding Is Stable against Local Changes in Chromatin Structure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Maria Florescu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing the link between small-scale chromatin structure and large-scale chromosome folding during interphase is a prerequisite for understanding transcription. Yet, this link remains poorly investigated. Here, we introduce a simple biophysical model where interphase chromosomes are described in terms of the folding of chromatin sequences composed of alternating blocks of fibers with different thicknesses and flexibilities, and we use it to study the influence of sequence disorder on chromosome behaviors in space and time. By employing extensive computer simulations, we thus demonstrate that chromosomes undergo noticeable conformational changes only on length-scales smaller than 105 basepairs and time-scales shorter than a few seconds, and we suggest there might exist effective upper bounds to the detection of chromosome reorganization in eukaryotes. We prove the relevance of our framework by modeling recent experimental FISH data on murine chromosomes.

  14. Future changes in large-scale transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalos, M.; Randel, W. J.; Kinnison, D. E.; Garcia, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    Future changes in large-scale transport are investigated in long-term (1955-2099) simulations of the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) under an RCP6.0 climate change scenario. We examine artificial passive tracers in order to isolate transport changes from future changes in emissions and chemical processes. The model suggests enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange in both directions (STE), with decreasing tropospheric and increasing stratospheric tracer concentrations in the troposphere. Changes in the different transport processes are evaluated using the Transformed Eulerian Mean continuity equation, including parameterized convective transport. Dynamical changes associated with the rise of the tropopause height are shown to play a crucial role on future transport trends.

  15. Crystallization characteristic and scaling behavior of germanium antimony thin films for phase change memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Weihua; Zhao, Zihan; Shen, Bo; Zhai, Jiwei; Song, Sannian; Song, Zhitang

    2018-04-19

    Amorphous Ge8Sb92 thin films with various thicknesses were deposited by magnetron sputtering. The crystallization kinetics and optical properties of the Ge8Sb92 thin films and related scaling effects were investigated by an in situ thermally induced method and an optical technique. With a decrease in film thickness, the crystallization temperature, crystallization activation energy and data retention ability increased significantly. The changed crystallization behavior may be ascribed to the smaller grain size and larger surface-to-volume ratio as the film thickness decreased. Regardless of whether the state was amorphous or crystalline, the film resistance increased remarkably as the film thickness decreased to 3 nm. The optical band gap calculated from the reflection spectra increases distinctly with a reduction in film thickness. X-ray diffraction patterns confirm that the scaling of the Ge8Sb92 thin film can inhibit the crystallization process and reduce the grain size. The values of exponent indices that were obtained indicate that the crystallization mechanism experiences a series of changes with scaling of the film thickness. The crystallization time was estimated to determine the scaling effect on the phase change speed. The scaling effect on the electrical switching performance of a phase change memory cell was also determined. The current-voltage and resistance-voltage characteristics indicate that phase change memory cells based on a thinner Ge8Sb92 film will exhibit a higher threshold voltage, lower RESET operational voltage and greater pulse width, which implies higher thermal stability, lower power consumption and relatively lower switching velocity.

  16. Introduction to the Special Issue: Across the horizon: scale effects in global change research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gornish, Elise S; Leuzinger, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    As a result of the increasing speed and magnitude in which habitats worldwide are experiencing environmental change, making accurate predictions of the effects of global change on ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them have become an important goal for ecologists. Experimental and modelling approaches aimed at understanding the linkages between factors of global change and biotic responses have become numerous and increasingly complex in order to adequately capture the multifarious dynamics associated with these relationships. However, constrained by resources, experiments are often conducted at small spatiotemporal scales (e.g. looking at a plot of a few square metres over a few years) and at low organizational levels (looking at organisms rather than ecosystems) in spite of both theoretical and experimental work that suggests ecological dynamics across scales can be dissimilar. This phenomenon has been hypothesized to occur because the mechanisms that drive dynamics across scales differ. A good example is the effect of elevated CO2 on transpiration. While at the leaf level, transpiration can be reduced, at the stand level, transpiration can increase because leaf area per unit ground area increases. The reported net effect is then highly dependent on the spatiotemporal scale. This special issue considers the biological relevancy inherent in the patterns associated with the magnitude and type of response to changing environmental conditions, across scales. This collection of papers attempts to provide a comprehensive treatment of this phenomenon in order to help develop an understanding of the extent of, and mechanisms involved with, ecological response to global change. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

  17. Organizational capacity for change in health care: Development and validation of a scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaulding, Aaron; Kash, Bita A; Johnson, Christopher E; Gamm, Larry

    We do not have a strong understanding of a health care organization's capacity for attempting and completing multiple and sometimes competing change initiatives. Capacity for change implementation is a critical success factor as the health care industry is faced with ongoing demands for change and transformation because of technological advances, market forces, and regulatory environment. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a tool to measure health care organizations' capacity to change by building upon previous conceptualizations of absorptive capacity and organizational readiness for change. A multistep process was used to develop the organizational capacity for change survey. The survey was sent to two populations requesting answers to questions about the organization's leadership, culture, and technologies in use throughout the organization. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to validate the survey as a measurement tool for organizational capacity for change in the health care setting. The resulting organizational capacity for change measurement tool proves to be a valid and reliable method of evaluating a hospital's capacity for change through the measurement of the population's perceptions related to leadership, culture, and organizational technologies. The organizational capacity for change measurement tool can help health care managers and leaders evaluate the capacity of employees, departments, and teams for change before large-scale implementation.

  18. Identification of the Scale of Changes in Personnel Motivation Techniques at Mechanical-Engineering Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melnyk Olga G.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The method for identification of the scale of changes in personnel motivation techniques at mechanical-engineering enterprises based on structural and logical sequence of implementation of relevant stages (identification of the mission, strategy and objectives of the enterprise; forecasting the development of the enterprise business environment; SWOT-analysis of actual motivation techniques, deciding on the scale of changes in motivation techniques, choosing providers for changing personnel motivation techniques, choosing an alternative to changing motivation techniques, implementation of changes in motivation techniques; control over changes in motivation techniques. It has been substantiated that the improved method enables providing a systematic and analytical justification for management decisionmaking in this field and choosing the best for the mechanical-engineering enterprise scale and variant of changes in motivation techniques. The method for identification of the scale of changes in motivation techniques at mechanical-engineering enterprises takes into account the previous, current and prospective character. Firstly, the approach is based on considering the past state in the motivational sphere of the mechanical-engineering enterprise; secondly, the method involves identifying the current state of personnel motivation techniques; thirdly, within the method framework the prospective, which is manifested in strategic vision of the enterprise development as well as in forecasting the development of its business environment, is taken into account. The advantage of the proposed method is that the level of its specification may vary depending on the set goals, resource constraints and necessity. Among other things, this method allows integrating various formalized and non-formalized causal relationships in the sphere of personnel motivation at machine-building enterprises and management of relevant processes. This creates preconditions for a

  19. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

    2017-09-01

    High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

  20. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

    2018-06-01

    High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

  1. Water limited agriculture in Africa: Climate change sensitivity of large scale land investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.; Chiarelli, D. D.; Davis, K. F.

    2015-12-01

    The past few decades have seen unprecedented changes in the global agricultural system with a dramatic increase in the rates of food production fueled by an escalating demand for food calories, as a result of demographic growth, dietary changes, and - more recently - new bioenergy policies. Food prices have become consistently higher and increasingly volatile with dramatic spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11. The confluence of these factors has heightened demand for land and brought a wave of land investment to the developing world: some of the more affluent countries are trying to secure land rights in areas suitable for agriculture. According to some estimates, to date, roughly 38 million hectares have been acquired worldwide by large scale investors, 16 million of which in Africa. More than 85% of large scale land acquisitions in Africa are by foreign investors. Many land deals are motivated not only by the need for fertile land but for the water resources required for crop production. Despite some recent assessments of the water appropriation associated with large scale land investments, their impact on the water resources of the target countries under present conditions and climate change scenarios remains poorly understood. Here we investigate irrigation water requirements by various crops planted in the acquired land as an indicator of the pressure likely placed by land investors on ("blue") water resources of target regions in Africa and evaluate the sensitivity to climate changes scenarios.

  2. Safety Effect Analysis of the Large-Scale Design Changes in a Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eun-Chan; Lee, Hyun-Gyo [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    These activities were predominantly focused on replacing obsolete systems with new systems, and these efforts were not only to prolong the plant life, but also to guarantee the safe operation of the units. This review demonstrates the safety effect evaluation using the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of the design changes, system improvements, and Fukushima accident action items for Kori unit 1 (K1). For the large scale of system design changes for K1, the safety effects from the PSA perspective were reviewed using the risk quantification results before and after the system improvements. This evaluation considered the seven significant design changes including the replacement of the control building air conditioning system and the performance improvement of the containment sump using a new filtering system as well as above five system design changes. The analysis results demonstrated that the CDF was reduced by 12% overall from 1.62E-5/y to 1.43E-5/y. The CDF reduction was larger in the transient group than in the loss of coolant accident (LOCA) group. In conclusion, the analysis using the K1 PSA model supports that the plant safety has been appropriately maintained after the large-scale design changes in consideration of the changed operation factors and failure modes due to the system improvements.

  3. Does scale matter? A systematic review of incorporating biological realism when predicting changes in species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Record, Sydne; Strecker, Angela; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Beaudrot, Lydia; Zarnetske, Phoebe; Belmaker, Jonathan; Gerstner, Beth

    2018-01-01

    There is ample evidence that biotic factors, such as biotic interactions and dispersal capacity, can affect species distributions and influence species' responses to climate change. However, little is known about how these factors affect predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) with respect to spatial grain and extent of the models. Understanding how spatial scale influences the effects of biological processes in SDMs is important because SDMs are one of the primary tools used by conservation biologists to assess biodiversity impacts of climate change. We systematically reviewed SDM studies published from 2003-2015 using ISI Web of Science searches to: (1) determine the current state and key knowledge gaps of SDMs that incorporate biotic interactions and dispersal; and (2) understand how choice of spatial scale may alter the influence of biological processes on SDM predictions. We used linear mixed effects models to examine how predictions from SDMs changed in response to the effects of spatial scale, dispersal, and biotic interactions. There were important biases in studies including an emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems in northern latitudes and little representation of aquatic ecosystems. Our results suggest that neither spatial extent nor grain influence projected climate-induced changes in species ranges when SDMs include dispersal or biotic interactions. We identified several knowledge gaps and suggest that SDM studies forecasting the effects of climate change should: 1) address broader ranges of taxa and locations; and 1) report the grain size, extent, and results with and without biological complexity. The spatial scale of analysis in SDMs did not affect estimates of projected range shifts with dispersal and biotic interactions. However, the lack of reporting on results with and without biological complexity precluded many studies from our analysis.

  4. Conscientious objection, barriers, and abortion in the case of rape: a study among physicians in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniz, Debora; Madeiro, Alberto; Rosas, Cristião

    2014-05-01

    In Brazil, to have a legal abortion in the case of rape, the woman's statement that rape has occurred is considered sufficient to guarantee the right to abortion. The aim of this study was to understand the practice and opinions about providing abortion in the case of rape among obstetricians-gynecologists (OBGYNs) in Brazil. A mixed-method study was conducted from April to July 2012 with 1,690 OBGYNs who responded to a structured, electronic, self-completed questionnaire. In the quantitative phase, 81.6% of the physicians required police reports or judicial authorization to guarantee the care requested. In-depth telephone interviews with 50 of these physicians showed that they frequently tested women's rape claim by making them repeat their story to several health professionals; 43.5% of these claimed conscientious objection when they were uncertain whether the woman was telling the truth. The moral environment of illegal abortion alters the purpose of listening to a patient - from providing care to passing judgement on her. The data suggest that women's access to legal abortion is being blocked by these barriers in spite of the law. We recommend that FEBRASGO and the Ministry of Health work together to clarify to physicians that a woman's statement that rape occurred should allow her to access a legal abortion. Copyright © 2014 Reproductive Health Matters. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Being more conscientious, collaborative, and confident in addressing patients' fears and anxieties: nurses' perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beswick SE

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Susan E Beswick,1 Sandee Westell,1 Sarah Sweetman,1 Charmaine Mothersill,1 Lianne P Jeffs1,21St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Keenan Research Centre of the Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Developing a therapeutic partnership between patient and nurse is key to ensuring the patient's needs and preferences are identified, addressed, and valued as a key patient safety goal. There is growing recognition that patients living with chronic lung diseases often experience increased levels of stress, anxiety, and depression compared to their healthy counterparts. Creating strategies for early identification and management of patients' fears and anxieties is a strategy to minimize anxiety and depressive symptoms.Methods: This article provides an overview of a qualitative study which explored nurses' perceptions and experiences associated with the implementation of the Registered Nurses' Association of Ontario's Establishing Therapeutic Relationships Best Practice Guideline that focused on strategies to alleviate patients' fears and anxieties on one respirology unit.Results: Study findings suggest that involvement in Best Practice Guideline implementation enabled nurses to address patients' fears and anxieties in a focused, conscientious manner and to be more collaborative and confident in their care.Conclusion: Providing opportunities for nurses to learn and apply evidence-based practice around therapeutic patient-centered care is a key step in ensuring a quality patient experience.Keywords: evidence-based practice, best practice guideline, therapeutic relationship, fear and anxiety, collaborative practice

  6. Exploring dimensions, scales, and cross-scale dynamics from the perspectives of change agents in social-ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervoort, J.M.; Rutting, L.; Kok, K.; Hermans, F.L.P.; Veldkamp, A.; Bregt, A.K.; Lammeren, van R.J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Issues of scale play a crucial role in the governance of social–ecological systems. Yet, attempts to bridge interdisciplinary perspectives on the role of scale have thus far largely been limited to the science arena. This study has extended the scale vocabulary to allow for the inclusion of

  7. Bias-correction and Spatial Disaggregation for Climate Change Impact Assessments at a basin scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyunt, Cho; Koike, Toshio; Yamamoto, Akio; Nemoto, Toshihoro; Kitsuregawa, Masaru

    2013-04-01

    Basin-scale climate change impact studies mainly rely on general circulation models (GCMs) comprising the related emission scenarios. Realistic and reliable data from GCM is crucial for national scale or basin scale impact and vulnerability assessments to build safety society under climate change. However, GCM fail to simulate regional climate features due to the imprecise parameterization schemes in atmospheric physics and coarse resolution scale. This study describes how to exclude some unsatisfactory GCMs with respect to focused basin, how to minimize the biases of GCM precipitation through statistical bias correction and how to cover spatial disaggregation scheme, a kind of downscaling, within in a basin. GCMs rejection is based on the regional climate features of seasonal evolution as a bench mark and mainly depends on spatial correlation and root mean square error of precipitation and atmospheric variables over the target region. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Japanese 25-uear Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) are specified as references in figuring spatial pattern and error of GCM. Statistical bias-correction scheme comprises improvements of three main flaws of GCM precipitation such as low intensity drizzled rain days with no dry day, underestimation of heavy rainfall and inter-annual variability of local climate. Biases of heavy rainfall are conducted by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitting over a peak over threshold series. Frequency of rain day error is fixed by rank order statistics and seasonal variation problem is solved by using a gamma distribution fitting in each month against insi-tu stations vs. corresponding GCM grids. By implementing the proposed bias-correction technique to all insi-tu stations and their respective GCM grid, an easy and effective downscaling process for impact studies at the basin scale is accomplished. The proposed method have been examined its applicability to some of the basins in various climate

  8. Nanometer-scale temperature measurements of phase change memory and carbon nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosse, Kyle Lane

    This work investigates nanometer-scale thermometry and thermal transport in new electronic devices to mitigate future electronic energy consumption. Nanometer-scale thermal transport is integral to electronic energy consumption and limits current electronic performance. New electronic devices are required to improve future electronic performance and energy consumption, but heat generation is not well understood in these new technologies. Thermal transport deviates significantly at the nanometer-scale from macroscopic systems as low dimensional materials, grain structure, interfaces, and thermoelectric effects can dominate electronic performance. This work develops and implements an atomic force microscopy (AFM) based nanometer-scale thermometry technique, known as scanning Joule expansion microscopy (SJEM), to measure nanometer-scale heat generation in new graphene and phase change memory (PCM) devices, which have potential to improve performance and energy consumption of future electronics. Nanometer-scale thermometry of chemical vapor deposition (CVD) grown graphene measured the heat generation at graphene wrinkles and grain boundaries (GBs). Graphene is an atomically-thin, two dimensional (2D) carbon material with promising applications in new electronic devices. Comparing measurements and predictions of CVD graphene heating predicted the resistivity, voltage drop, and temperature rise across the one dimensional (1D) GB defects. This work measured the nanometer-scale temperature rise of thin film Ge2Sb2Te5 (GST) based PCM due to Joule, thermoelectric, interface, and grain structure effects. PCM has potential to reduce energy consumption and improve performance of future electronic memory. A new nanometer-scale thermometry technique is developed for independent and direct observation of Joule and thermoelectric effects at the nanometer-scale, and the technique is demonstrated by SJEM measurements of GST devices. Uniform heating and GST properties are observed for

  9. Climate change impacts and adaptations on small-scale livestock production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taruvinga, A.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper estimated the impacts of climate change and adaptations on small-scale livestock production. The study is based on a survey of 1484 small-scale livestock rural farmers across the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Regression estimates finds that with warming, the probability of choosing the following species increases; goats, dual purpose chicken (DPC, layers, donkeys and ducks. High precipitation increases the probability of choosing the following animals; beef, goats, DPC and donkeys. Further, socio-economic estimates indicate that livestock selection choices are also conditioned by gender, age, marital status, education and household size. The paper therefore concluded that as climate changes, rural farmers switch their livestock combinations as a coping strategy. Unfortunately, rural farmers face a limited preferred livestock selection pool that is combatable to harsh climate which might translate to a bleak future for rural livestock farmers.

  10. Climate Change Impacts on Runoff Regimes at a River Basin Scale in Central Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Do Hoai Nam

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming has resulted in significant variability of global climate especially with regard to variation in temperature and precipitation. As a result, it is expected that river flow regimes will be accordingly varied. This study presents a preliminary projection of medium-term and long-term runoff variation caused by climate change at a river basin scale. The large scale precipitation projection at the middle and the end of the 21st century under the A1B scenario simulated by the CGCM model (MRI & JMA, 300 km resolution is statistically downscaled to a basin scale and then used as input for the super-tank model for runoff analysis at the upper Thu Bon River basin in Central Vietnam. Results show that by the middle and the end of this century annual rainfall will increase slightly; together with a rising temperature, potential evapotranspiration is also projected to increase as well. The total annual runoff, as a result, is found to be not distinctly varied relative to the baseline period 1981 - 2000; however, the runoff will decrease in the dry season and increase in the rainy season. The results also indicate the delay tendency of the high river flow period, shifting from Sep-Dec at present to Oct-Jan in the future. The present study demonstrates potential impacts of climate change on streamflow regimes in attempts to propose appropriate adaptation measures and responses at the river basin scales.

  11. Multi-scale MHD analysis of heliotron plasma in change of background field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichiguchi, K.; Sakakibara, S.; Ohdachi, S.; Carreras, B.A.

    2012-11-01

    A partial collapse observed in the Large Helical Device (LHD) experiments shifting the magnetic axis inwardly with a real time control of the background field is analyzed with a magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical simulation. The simulation is carried out with a multi-scale simulation scheme. In the simulation, the equilibrium also evolves including the change of the pressure and the rotational transform due to the perturbation dynamics. The simulation result agrees with the experiments qualitatively, which shows that the mechanism is attributed to the destabilization of an infernal-like mode. The destabilization is caused by the change of the background field through the enhancement of the magnetic hill. (author)

  12. Sustainability of small reservoirs and large scale water availability under current conditions and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Krol, Martinus S.; de Vries, Marjella J.; van Oel, P.R.; Carlos de Araújo, José

    2011-01-01

    Semi-arid river basins often rely on reservoirs for water supply. Small reservoirs may impact on large-scale water availability both by enhancing availability in a distributed sense and by subtracting water for large downstream user communities, e.g. served by large reservoirs. Both of these impacts of small reservoirs are subject to climate change. Using a case-study on North-East Brazil, this paper shows that climate change impacts on water availability may be severe, and impacts on distrib...

  13. Legal and ethical standards for protecting women's human rights and the practice of conscientious objection in reproductive healthcare settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zampas, Christina

    2013-12-01

    The practice of conscientious objection by healthcare workers is growing across the globe. It is most common in reproductive healthcare settings because of the religious or moral values placed on beliefs as to when life begins. It is often invoked in the context of abortion and contraceptive services, including the provision of information related to such services. Few states adequately regulate the practice, leading to denial of access to lawful reproductive healthcare services and violations of fundamental human rights. International ethical, health, and human rights standards have recently attempted to address these challenges by harmonizing the practice of conscientious objection with women's right to sexual and reproductive health services. FIGO ethical standards have had an important role in influencing human rights development in this area. They consider regulation of the unfettered use of conscientious objection essential to the realization of sexual and reproductive rights. Under international human rights law, states have a positive obligation to act in this regard. While ethical and human rights standards regarding this issue are growing, they do not yet exhaustively cover all the situations in which women's health and human rights are in jeopardy because of the practice. The present article sets forth existing ethical and human rights standards on the issue and illustrates the need for further development and clarity on balancing these rights and interests. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Individual Differences in Loss Aversion: Conscientiousness Predicts How Life Satisfaction Responds to Losses Versus Gains in Income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Christopher J; Wood, Alex M; Ferguson, Eamonn

    2016-04-01

    Loss aversion is considered a general pervasive bias occurring regardless of the context or the person making the decision. We hypothesized that conscientiousness would predict an aversion to losses in the financial domain. We index loss aversion by the relative impact of income losses and gains on life satisfaction. In a representative German sample (N = 105,558; replicated in a British sample, N = 33,848), with conscientiousness measured at baseline, those high on conscientiousness have the strongest reactions to income losses, suggesting a pronounced loss aversion effect, whereas for those moderately unconscientious, there is no loss aversion effect. Our research (a) provides the first evidence of personality moderation of any loss aversion phenomena, (b) supports contextual perspectives that both personality and situational factors need to be examined in combination, (c) shows that the small but robust relationship between income and life satisfaction is driven primarily by a subset of people experiencing highly impactful losses. © 2016 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  15. A meta-analytic investigation of conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance: examining the intercorrelations and the incremental validity of narrow traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, Nicole M; Orvis, Karin A; Lebiecki, Justin E; Cortina, José M

    2006-01-01

    Researchers of broad and narrow traits have debated whether narrow traits are important to consider in the prediction of job performance. Because personality-performance relationship meta-analyses have focused almost exclusively on the Big Five, the predictive power of narrow traits has not been adequately examined. In this study, the authors address this question by meta-analytically examining the degree to which the narrow traits of conscientiousness predict above and beyond global conscientiousness. Results suggest that narrow traits do incrementally predict performance above and beyond global conscientiousness, yet the degree to which they contribute depends on the particular performance criterion and occupation in question. Overall, the results of this study suggest that there are benefits to considering the narrow traits of conscientiousness in the prediction of performance. (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. Change in Urban Albedo in London: A Multi-scale Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susca, T.; Kotthaus, S.; Grimmond, S.

    2013-12-01

    Urbanization-induced change in land use has considerable implications for climate, air quality, resources and ecosystems. Urban-induced warming is one of the most well-known impacts. This directly and indirectly can extend beyond the city. One way to reduce the size of this is to modify the surface atmosphere exchanges through changing the urban albedo. As increased rugosity caused by the morphology of a city results in lower albedo with constant material characteristics, the impacts of changing the albedo has impacts across a range of scales. Here a multi-scale assessment of the potential effects of the increase in albedo in London is presented. This includes modeling at the global and meso-scale informed by local and micro-scale measurements. In this study the first order calculations are conducted for the impact of changing the albedo (e.g. a 0.01 increase) on the radiative exchange. For example, when incoming solar radiation and cloud cover are considered, based on data retrieved from NASA (http://power.larc.nasa.gov/) for ~1600 km2 area of London, would produce a mean decrease in the instantaneous solar radiative forcing on the same surface of 0.40 W m-2. The nature of the surface is critical in terms of considering the impact of changes in albedo. For example, in the Central Activity Zone in London pavement and building can vary from 10 to 100% of the plan area. From observations the albedo is seen to change dramatically with changes in building materials. For example, glass surfaces which are being used increasingly in the central business district results in dramatic changes in albedo. Using the documented albedo variations determined across different scales the impacts are considered. For example, the effect of the increase in urban albedo is translated into the corresponding amount of avoided emission of carbon dioxide that produces the same effect on climate. At local scale, the effect that the increase in urban albedo can potentially have on local

  17. Health Systems Research in a Complex and Rapidly Changing Context: Ethical Implications of Major Health Systems Change at Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor, Hayley; Bloom, Gerald

    2016-12-01

    This paper discusses health policy and systems research in complex and rapidly changing contexts. It focuses on ethical issues at stake for researchers working with government policy makers to provide evidence to inform major health systems change at scale, particularly when the dynamic nature of the context and ongoing challenges to the health system can result in unpredictable outcomes. We focus on situations where 'country ownership' of HSR is relatively well established and where there is significant involvement of local researchers and close ties and relationships with policy makers are often present. We frame our discussion around two country case studies with which we are familiar, namely China and South Africa and discuss the implications for conducting 'embedded' research. We suggest that reflexivity is an important concept for health system researchers who need to think carefully about positionality and their normative stance and to use such reflection to ensure that they can negotiate to retain autonomy, whilst also contributing evidence for health system change. A research process informed by the notion of reflexive practice and iterative learning will require a longitudinal review at key points in the research timeline. Such review should include the convening of a deliberative process and should involve a range of stakeholders, including those most likely to be affected by the intended and unintended consequences of change. © 2016 The Authors Developing World Bioethics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Millennial-scale temperature change velocity in the continental northern Neotropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correa-Metrio, Alexander; Bush, Mark; Lozano-García, Socorro; Sosa-Nájera, Susana

    2013-01-01

    Climate has been inherently linked to global diversity patterns, and yet no empirical data are available to put modern climate change into a millennial-scale context. High tropical species diversity has been linked to slow rates of climate change during the Quaternary, an assumption that lacks an empirical foundation. Thus, there is the need for quantifying the velocity at which the bioclimatic space changed during the Quaternary in the tropics. Here we present rates of climate change for the late Pleistocene and Holocene from Mexico and Guatemala. An extensive modern pollen survey and fossil pollen data from two long sedimentary records (30,000 and 86,000 years for highlands and lowlands, respectively) were used to estimate past temperatures. Derived temperature profiles show a parallel long-term trend and a similar cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Guatemalan lowlands and the Mexican highlands. Temperature estimates and digital elevation models were used to calculate the velocity of isotherm displacement (temperature change velocity) for the time period contained in each record. Our analyses showed that temperature change velocities in Mesoamerica during the late Quaternary were at least four times slower than values reported for the last 50 years, but also at least twice as fast as those obtained from recent models. Our data demonstrate that, given extremely high temperature change velocities, species survival must have relied on either microrefugial populations or persistence of suppressed individuals. Contrary to the usual expectation of stable climates being associated with high diversity, our results suggest that Quaternary tropical diversity was probably maintained by centennial-scale oscillatory climatic variability that forestalled competitive exclusion. As humans have simplified modern landscapes, thereby removing potential microrefugia, and climate change is occurring monotonically at a very high velocity, extinction risk for tropical

  19. Millennial-scale temperature change velocity in the continental northern Neotropics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Correa-Metrio

    Full Text Available Climate has been inherently linked to global diversity patterns, and yet no empirical data are available to put modern climate change into a millennial-scale context. High tropical species diversity has been linked to slow rates of climate change during the Quaternary, an assumption that lacks an empirical foundation. Thus, there is the need for quantifying the velocity at which the bioclimatic space changed during the Quaternary in the tropics. Here we present rates of climate change for the late Pleistocene and Holocene from Mexico and Guatemala. An extensive modern pollen survey and fossil pollen data from two long sedimentary records (30,000 and 86,000 years for highlands and lowlands, respectively were used to estimate past temperatures. Derived temperature profiles show a parallel long-term trend and a similar cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum in the Guatemalan lowlands and the Mexican highlands. Temperature estimates and digital elevation models were used to calculate the velocity of isotherm displacement (temperature change velocity for the time period contained in each record. Our analyses showed that temperature change velocities in Mesoamerica during the late Quaternary were at least four times slower than values reported for the last 50 years, but also at least twice as fast as those obtained from recent models. Our data demonstrate that, given extremely high temperature change velocities, species survival must have relied on either microrefugial populations or persistence of suppressed individuals. Contrary to the usual expectation of stable climates being associated with high diversity, our results suggest that Quaternary tropical diversity was probably maintained by centennial-scale oscillatory climatic variability that forestalled competitive exclusion. As humans have simplified modern landscapes, thereby removing potential microrefugia, and climate change is occurring monotonically at a very high velocity, extinction risk

  20. Quantifying streamflow change caused by forest disturbance at a large spatial scale: A single watershed study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang

    2010-12-01

    Climatic variability and forest disturbance are commonly recognized as two major drivers influencing streamflow change in large-scale forested watersheds. The greatest challenge in evaluating quantitative hydrological effects of forest disturbance is the removal of climatic effect on hydrology. In this paper, a method was designed to quantify respective contributions of large-scale forest disturbance and climatic variability on streamflow using the Willow River watershed (2860 km2) located in the central part of British Columbia, Canada. Long-term (>50 years) data on hydrology, climate, and timber harvesting history represented by equivalent clear-cutting area (ECA) were available to discern climatic and forestry influences on streamflow by three steps. First, effective precipitation, an integrated climatic index, was generated by subtracting evapotranspiration from precipitation. Second, modified double mass curves were developed by plotting accumulated annual streamflow against annual effective precipitation, which presented a much clearer picture of the cumulative effects of forest disturbance on streamflow following removal of climatic influence. The average annual streamflow changes that were attributed to forest disturbances and climatic variability were then estimated to be +58.7 and -72.4 mm, respectively. The positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) values in streamflow change indicated opposite change directions, which suggest an offsetting effect between forest disturbance and climatic variability in the study watershed. Finally, a multivariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was generated to establish quantitative relationships between accumulated annual streamflow deviation attributed to forest disturbances and annual ECA. The model was then used to project streamflow change under various timber harvesting scenarios. The methodology can be effectively applied to any large-scale single watershed where long-term data (>50

  1. Defining the minimal detectable change in scores on the eight-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muntner, Paul; Joyce, Cara; Holt, Elizabeth; He, Jiang; Morisky, Donald; Webber, Larry S; Krousel-Wood, Marie

    2011-05-01

    Self-report scales are used to assess medication adherence. Data on how to discriminate change in self-reported adherence over time from random variability are limited. To determine the minimal detectable change for scores on the 8-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8). The MMAS-8 was administered twice, using a standard telephone script, with administration separated by 14-22 days, to 210 participants taking antihypertensive medication in the CoSMO (Cohort Study of Medication Adherence among Older Adults). MMAS-8 scores were calculated and participants were grouped into previously defined categories (<6, 6 to <8, and 8 for low, medium, and high adherence). The mean (SD) age of participants was 78.1 (5.8) years, 43.8% were black, and 68.1% were women. Overall, 8.1% (17/210), 16.2% (34/210), and 51.0% (107/210) of participants had low, medium, and high MMAS-8 scores, respectively, at both survey administrations (overall agreement 75.2%; 158/210). The weighted κ statistic was 0.63 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.72). The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.78. The within-person standard error of the mean for change in MMAS-8 scores was 0.81, which equated to a minimal detectable change of 1.98 points. Only 4.3% (9/210) of the participants had a change in MMAS-8 of 2 or more points between survey administrations. Within-person changes in MMAS-8 scores of 2 or more points over time may represent a real change in antihypertensive medication adherence.

  2. An inter-battery factor analysis of the comrey personality scales and the 16 personality factor questionnaire

    OpenAIRE

    Gideon P. de Bruin

    2000-01-01

    The scores of 700 Afrikaans-speaking university students on the Comrey Personality Scales and the 16 Personality Factor Questionnaire were subjected to an inter-battery factor analysis. This technique uses only the correlations between two sets of variables and reveals only the factors that they have in common. Three of the Big Five personality factors were revealed, namely Extroversion, Neuroticism and Conscientiousness. However, the Conscientiousness factor contained a relatively strong uns...

  3. The effect of millennial-scale changes in Arabian Sea denitrification on atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altabet, M.A.; Higginson, M.J.; Murray, D.W.

    2002-01-01

    Most global biogeochemical processes are known to respond to climate change, some of which have the capacity to produce feedbacks through the regulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Marine denitrification - the reduction of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen - is an important process in this regard, affecting greenhouse gas concentrations directly through the incidental production of nitrous oxide, and indirectly through modification of the marine nitrogen inventory and hence the biological pump for C0 2 . Although denitrification has been shown to vary with glacial-interglacial cycles, its response to more rapid climate change has not yet been well characterized. Here we present nitrogen isotope ratio, nitrogen content and chlorin abundance data from sediment cores with high accumulation rates on the Oman continental margin that reveal substantial millennial-scale variability in Arabian Sea denitrification and productivity during the last glacial period. The detailed correspondence of these changes with Dansgaard-Oeschger events recorded in Greenland ice cores indicates rapid, century-scale reorganization of the Arabian Sea ecosystem in response to climate excursions, mediated through the intensity of summer monsoonal upwelling. Considering the several-thousand-year residence time of fixed nitrogen in the ocean, the response of global marine productivity to changes in denitrification would have occurred at lower frequency and appears to be related to climatic and atmospheric C0 2 oscillations observed in Antarctic ice cores between 20 and A kyr ago. (author)

  4. A biopsychosocial investigation of changes in self-concept on the Head Injury Semantic Differential Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Avneel; Ownsworth, Tamara; King, Joshua; Shields, Cassandra

    2017-12-01

    This study aimed to investigate the influence of the "good-old-days" bias, neuropsychological functioning and cued recall of life events on self-concept change. Forty seven adults with TBI (70% male, 1-5 years post-injury) and 47 matched controls rated their past and present self-concept on the Head Injury Semantic Differential Scale (HISD) III. TBI participants also completed a battery of neuropsychological tests. The matched control group of 47 were from a sample of 78 uninjured participants who were randomised to complete either the Social Readjustment Rating Scale-Revised (cued recall) or HISD (non-cued recall) first. Consistent with the good-old-days bias, participants with TBI rated their pre-injury self-concept as more positive than their present self-concept and the present self-concept of controls (p concept ratings were related to lower estimated premorbid IQ and poorer verbal fluency and delayed memory (p concept change (p concept as significantly more negative than the non-cued group (p concept change by affecting retrospective ratings of past self-concept. Further research is needed to investigate the impact of contextual cues on self-concept change after TBI.

  5. Soil organic matter change - analysis on a regional scale of Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruendling, Ralf; Franko, Uwe; Sedy, Katrin; Freudenschuß, Alexandra; Spiegel, Adelheid; Formayer, Herbert

    2014-05-01

    Soil organic matter (SOM) is an important resource in agriculture. It influences soil fertility, erosion processes and prevents soil degradation. However, SOM is strongly affected by climate change, soil conditions and management alterations. The presented study analyzes SOM changes in Austria on a regional scale in the "Marchfeld" and the "Muehlviertel". For quantification these SOM changes the model CCB (Candy Carbon Balance) was used. Based on a 1 square kilometer raster, the impact of specific site conditions on SOM are determined to characterize the study areas. Used as a main indicator for these conditions is the biologic active time (BAT). BAT describes the biologic activity for carbon cycling in top soils depending on soil and climatic conditions. High values of BAT indicate fast SOM reproduction rates. Hence, BAT changes over last years signpost the risk of SOM loss and can be used as an on-farm decision tool. The change of risks of SOM loss due to climate change is assessed by model results. Therefore, three climate scenarios are used to compute reproduction rates of SOM. "High risk-regions" can be identified for policy consulting. Different climate scenarios can help to develop best case and worst case results. First results show that the region "Marchfeld" had a higher change in BAT during last 2 decades comparing to the "Muehlviertel". A higher risk of SOM loosing is evident. Nevertheless, future scenarios predict a higher change of BAT for the "Muehlviertel". Apparently, the sensitivity of "Marchfeld" sites regard to climate change has been higher in the past and most BAT changes took place until now. With this method an evaluation of farm management in regard to SOM reproduction and recommendation of crop rotations for the future are possible. In conclusion, the aim of the project is a tool box for farmers and policy makers to evaluate present and future agricultural management. An examination of additional regions in Austria is planned.

  6. Political discourse and climate change: the challenge of reconciling scale of impact with level of governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindseth, Gard

    2006-04-01

    The politics of climate change is viewed through a discourse perspective. Central to this perspective's understanding of the environment is that the lack of urgency about the problem cannot be attributed to the nature of the climate problem and human beings alone. Environmental problems are subject to discursive struggles. The concept of discourse analysis is not discussed in relation to other, related terms, but used in a pragmatic way, aiming to advance insights about the processes under study. Two main, competing perspectives are identified: 'National Action' and 'Thinking Globally'. The findings are foremost valid for the Norwegian context, although different aspects of the climate issue have broader implications. Two central contributions to the field of climate politics are put forth: Firstly, viewing climate change controversies in terms of 'scales' is an important asset to literature in the field. The understanding of 'scale' adopted is fluid and procedural, a concept that is socially constructed. In climate politics there is no perfect fit between the ecological dimensions of climate change and the institutional dimensions of the problem. The studies show how climate change as a political problem belongs to the local, regional, national, or global scales. It is argued that we misunderstand politics if we make clear distinctions between local or global politics. It is concluded that local and national actors have up-scaled the climate issue, seeing the climate issue as a global problem requiring global solutions, instead of local or national concerns. Second, and related to the first point, the way of viewing climate change as a global issue in a national or local context has consequences for the policy solutions that can be sought. The idea of thinking globally might work to distract attention from how actors at the different levels of governance can make a contribution to climate governance. A broader discussion about climate change as a concerted

  7. Political discourse and climate change: the challenge of reconciling scale of impact with level of governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindseth, Gard

    2006-04-15

    The politics of climate change is viewed through a discourse perspective. Central to this perspective's understanding of the environment is that the lack of urgency about the problem cannot be attributed to the nature of the climate problem and human beings alone. Environmental problems are subject to discursive struggles. The concept of discourse analysis is not discussed in relation to other, related terms, but used in a pragmatic way, aiming to advance insights about the processes under study. Two main, competing perspectives are identified: 'National Action' and 'Thinking Globally'. The findings are foremost valid for the Norwegian context, although different aspects of the climate issue have broader implications. Two central contributions to the field of climate politics are put forth: Firstly, viewing climate change controversies in terms of 'scales' is an important asset to literature in the field. The understanding of 'scale' adopted is fluid and procedural, a concept that is socially constructed. In climate politics there is no perfect fit between the ecological dimensions of climate change and the institutional dimensions of the problem. The studies show how climate change as a political problem belongs to the local, regional, national, or global scales. It is argued that we misunderstand politics if we make clear distinctions between local or global politics. It is concluded that local and national actors have up-scaled the climate issue, seeing the climate issue as a global problem requiring global solutions, instead of local or national concerns. Second, and related to the first point, the way of viewing climate change as a global issue in a national or local context has consequences for the policy solutions that can be sought. The idea of thinking globally might work to distract attention from how actors at the different levels of governance can make a contribution to climate governance. A broader

  8. Political discourse and climate change: the challenge of reconciling scale of impact with level of governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindseth, Gard

    2006-04-15

    The politics of climate change is viewed through a discourse perspective. Central to this perspective's understanding of the environment is that the lack of urgency about the problem cannot be attributed to the nature of the climate problem and human beings alone. Environmental problems are subject to discursive struggles. The concept of discourse analysis is not discussed in relation to other, related terms, but used in a pragmatic way, aiming to advance insights about the processes under study. Two main, competing perspectives are identified: 'National Action' and 'Thinking Globally'. The findings are foremost valid for the Norwegian context, although different aspects of the climate issue have broader implications. Two central contributions to the field of climate politics are put forth: Firstly, viewing climate change controversies in terms of 'scales' is an important asset to literature in the field. The understanding of 'scale' adopted is fluid and procedural, a concept that is socially constructed. In climate politics there is no perfect fit between the ecological dimensions of climate change and the institutional dimensions of the problem. The studies show how climate change as a political problem belongs to the local, regional, national, or global scales. It is argued that we misunderstand politics if we make clear distinctions between local or global politics. It is concluded that local and national actors have up-scaled the climate issue, seeing the climate issue as a global problem requiring global solutions, instead of local or national concerns. Second, and related to the first point, the way of viewing climate change as a global issue in a national or local context has consequences for the policy solutions that can be sought. The idea of thinking globally might work to distract attention from how actors at the different levels of governance can make a contribution to climate governance. A broader discussion about climate change as a concerted

  9. Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Peter D.; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2015-06-01

    Addressing climate change in the United States requires enactment of national, state and local mitigation and adaptation policies. The success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support and behaviours at appropriate scales. Public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states and localities. Here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. The model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. The analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. Nationally, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43 to 80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. These estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.

  10. The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun

    2011-10-18

    Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.

  11. Tracking global change at local scales: Phenology for science, outreach, conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharron, Ed; Mitchell, Brian

    2011-06-01

    A Workshop Exploring the Use of Phenology Studies for Public Engagement; New Orleans, Louisiana, 14 March 2011 ; During a George Wright Society Conference session that was led by the USA National Phenology Network (USANPN; http://www.usanpn.org) and the National Park Service (NPS), professionals from government organizations, nonprofits, and higher-education institutions came together to explore the possibilities of using phenology monitoring to engage the public. One of the most visible effects of global change on ecosystems is shifts in phenology: the timing of biological events such as leafing and flowering, maturation of agricultural plants, emergence of insects, and migration of birds. These shifts are already occurring and reflect biological responses to climate change at local to regional scales. Changes in phenology have important implications for species ecology and resource management and, because they are place-based and tangible, serve as an ideal platform for education, outreach, and citizen science.

  12. Estimating temporal changes in soil carbon stocks at ecoregional scale in Madagascar using remote-sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinand, C.; Maire, G. Le; Vieilledent, G.; Razakamanarivo, H.; Razafimbelo, T.; Bernoux, M.

    2017-02-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays an important role in climate change regulation notably through release of CO2 following land use change such a deforestation, but data on stock change levels are lacking. This study aims to empirically assess SOC stocks change between 1991 and 2011 at the landscape scale using easy-to-access spatially-explicit environmental factors. The study area was located in southeast Madagascar, in a region that exhibits very high rate of deforestation and which is characterized by both humid and dry climates. We estimated SOC stock on 0.1 ha plots for 95 different locations in a 43,000 ha reference area covering both dry and humid conditions and representing different land cover including natural forest, cropland, pasture and fallows. We used the Random Forest algorithm to find out the environmental factors explaining the spatial distribution of SOC. We then predicted SOC stocks for two soil layers at 30 cm and 100 cm over a wider area of 395,000 ha. By changing the soil and vegetation indices derived from remote sensing images we were able to produce SOC maps for 1991 and 2011. Those estimates and their related uncertainties where combined in a post-processing step to map estimates of significant SOC variations and we finally compared the SOC change map with published deforestation maps. Results show that the geologic variables, precipitation, temperature, and soil-vegetation status were strong predictors of SOC distribution at regional scale. We estimated an average net loss of 10.7% and 5.2% for the 30 cm and the 100 cm layers respectively for deforested areas in the humid area. Our results also suggest that these losses occur within the first five years following deforestation. No significant variations were observed for the dry region. This study provides new solutions and knowledge for a better integration of soil threats and opportunities in land management policies.

  13. Efficiency scale and technological change in credit unions and multiple banks using the COSIF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanderson Rocha Bittencourt

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The modernization of the financial intermediation process and adapting to new technologies, brought adjustments to operational processes, providing the reduction of information borrowing costs, allowing generate greater customer satisfaction, due to increased competitiveness in addition to making gains with long efficiency period. In this context, this research aims to analyze the evolution in scale and technological efficiency of credit and multiple cooperative banks from 2009 to 2013. We used the method of Data Envelopment Analysis - DEA, which allows to calculate the change in efficiency of institutions through the Malmquist Index. The results indicated that institutions that employ larger volumes of assets in the composition of its resources presented evolution in scale and technological efficiency, influencing the change in total factor productivity. It should be noticed that cooperatives had, in some years, advances in technology and scale efficiency higher than banks. However, this result can be explained by the fact that the average efficiency of credit unions have been lower than that of banks in the analyzed sample, indicating that there is greater need to improve internal processes by cooperatives, compared to multiple banks surveyed.

  14. A Scale-Explicit Framework for Conceptualizing the Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Land Use Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iago Lowe Hale

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Demand for locally-produced food is growing in areas outside traditionally dominant agricultural regions due to concerns over food safety, quality, and sovereignty; rural livelihoods; and environmental integrity. Strategies for meeting this demand rely upon agricultural land use change, in various forms of either intensification or extensification (converting non-agricultural land, including native landforms, to agricultural use. The nature and extent of the impacts of these changes on non-food-provisioning ecosystem services are determined by a complex suite of scale-dependent interactions among farming practices, site-specific characteristics, and the ecosystem services under consideration. Ecosystem modeling strategies which honor such complexity are often impenetrable by non-experts, resulting in a prevalent conceptual gap between ecosystem sciences and the field of sustainable agriculture. Referencing heavily forested New England as an example, we present a conceptual framework designed to synthesize and convey understanding of the scale- and landscape-dependent nature of the relationship between agriculture and various ecosystem services. By accounting for the total impact of multiple disturbances across a landscape while considering the effects of scale, the framework is intended to stimulate and support the collaborative efforts of land managers, scientists, citizen stakeholders, and policy makers as they address the challenges of expanding local agriculture.

  15. Grassland/atmosphere response to changing climate: Coupling regional and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughenour, M.B.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Pielke, R.A.; Eastman, J.

    1993-10-01

    The objectives of the study were: to evaluate the response of grassland ecosystems to atmospheric change at regional and site scales, and to develop multiscaled modeling systems to relate ecological and atmospheric models with different spatial and temporal resolutions. A menu-driven shell was developed to facilitate use of models at different temporal scales and to facilitate exchange information between models at different temporal scales. A detailed ecosystem model predicted that C 3 temperate grasslands wig respond more strongly to elevated CO 2 than temperate C 4 grasslands in the short-term while a large positive N-PP response was predicted for a C 4 Kenyan grassland. Long-term climate change scenarios produced either decreases or increases in Colorado plant productivity (NPP) depending on rainfall, but uniform increases in N-PP were predicted in Kenya. Elevated CO 2 is likely to have little effect on ecosystem carbon storage in Colorado while it will increase carbon storage in Kenya. A synoptic climate classification processor (SCP) was developed to evaluate results of GCM climate sensitivity experiments. Roughly 80% agreement was achieved with manual classifications. Comparison of lx and 2xCO 2 GCM Simulations revealed relatively small differences

  16. Scale orientated analysis of river width changes due to extreme flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Krapesch

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the morphological effects of extreme floods (recurrence interval >100 years and examines which parameters best describe the width changes due to erosion based on 5 affected alpine gravel bed rivers in Austria. The research was based on vertical aerial photos of the rivers before and after extreme floods, hydrodynamic numerical models and cross sectional measurements supported by LiDAR data of the rivers. Average width ratios (width after/before the flood were calculated and correlated with different hydraulic parameters (specific stream power, shear stress, flow area, specific discharge. Depending on the geomorphological boundary conditions of the different rivers, a mean width ratio between 1.12 (Lech River and 3.45 (Trisanna River was determined on the reach scale. The specific stream power (SSP best predicted the mean width ratios of the rivers especially on the reach scale and sub reach scale. On the local scale more parameters have to be considered to define the "minimum morphological spatial demand of rivers", which is a crucial parameter for addressing and managing flood hazards and should be used in hazard zone plans and spatial planning.

  17. Rebels without a Cause? Civil disobedience, Conscientious Objection and the Art of Argumentation in the Case Law of the European Court of Human Rights

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kati Nieminen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Civil disobedience is often seen as a political statement whilst conscientious objection is understood as a private matter. This article discusses real-life acts of disobedience in the case law of the European Court of Human Rights. The emphasis is on the argumentative strategies by which the potential for profound social change can be neutralised in legal argumentation. The cases discussed here concentrate on Turkey and represent acts of conscientious objection and civil disobedience. The main finding is that in legal argumentation there are two strategies for neutralising the potential for change: first, labelling the disobedient act as a private matter in order to deprive it of its political message, or second, labelling the act as violent, undemocratic behaviour so that it can be disregarded. The article shows that the law is unable, and perhaps unwilling, to fully acknowledge the political claims of disobedience. A menudo se percibe la desobediencia civil como una declaración política, mientras que la objeción de conciencia se entiende como un asunto privado. Este artículo analiza actos de desobediencia de la vida real a través de la jurisprudencia del Tribunal Europeo de Derechos Humanos. Se enfatizan las estrategias argumentativas por las que se puede neutralizar el potencial de cambio social profundo a través de la argumentación jurídica. Los casos analizados aquí se centran en Turquía y representan actos de objeción de conciencia y desobediencia civil. La conclusión principal es que en la argumentación jurídica existen dos estrategias para neutralizar el potencial de cambio: en primer lugar, etiquetar el acto de desobediencia como un asunto privado, para privarlo de su mensaje político, en segundo lugar, etiquetar el acto como un comportamiento violento y no democrático, para que pueda ser ignorado. El artículo demuestra que el derecho es incapaz de, y tal vez reticente a, reconocer totalmente las reivindicaciones pol

  18. Collision recognition and direction changes for small scale fish robots by acceleration sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Seung Y.; Shin, Daejung; Kim, Jin Y.; Lee, Bae-Ho

    2005-05-01

    Typical obstacles are walls, rocks, water plants and other nearby robots for a group of small scale fish robots and submersibles that have been constructed in our lab. Sonar sensors are not employed to make the robot structure simple enough. All of circuits, sensors and processor cards are contained in a box of 9 x 7 x 4 cm dimension except motors, fins and external covers. Therefore, image processing results are applied to avoid collisions. However, it is useful only when the obstacles are located far enough to give images processing time for detecting them. Otherwise, acceleration sensors are used to detect collision immediately after it happens. Two of 2-axes acceleration sensors are employed to measure the three components of collision angles, collision magnitudes, and the angles of robot propulsion. These data are integrated to calculate the amount of propulsion direction change. The angle of a collision incident upon an obstacle is the fundamental value to obtain a direction change needed to design a following path. But there is a significant amount of noise due to a caudal fin motor. Because caudal fin provides the main propulsion for a fish robot, there is a periodic swinging noise at the head of a robot. This noise provides a random acceleration effect on the measured acceleration data at the collision. We propose an algorithm which shows that the MEMS-type accelerometers are very effective to provide information for direction changes in spite of the intrinsic noise after the small scale fish robots have made obstacle collision.

  19. Proportional and scale change models to project failures of mechanical components with applications to space station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taneja, Vidya S.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we develop the mathematical theory of proportional and scale change models to perform reliability analysis. The results obtained will be applied for the Reaction Control System (RCS) thruster valves on an orbiter. With the advent of extended EVA's associated with PROX OPS (ISSA & MIR), and docking, the loss of a thruster valve now takes on an expanded safety significance. Previous studies assume a homogeneous population of components with each component having the same failure rate. However, as various components experience different stresses and are exposed to different environments, their failure rates change with time. In this paper we model the reliability of a thruster valves by treating these valves as a censored repairable system. The model for each valve will take the form of a nonhomogeneous process with the intensity function that is either treated as a proportional hazard model, or a scale change random effects hazard model. Each component has an associated z, an independent realization of the random variable Z from a distribution G(z). This unobserved quantity z can be used to describe heterogeneity systematically. For various models methods for estimating the model parameters using censored data will be developed. Available field data (from previously flown flights) is from non-renewable systems. The estimated failure rate using such data will need to be modified for renewable systems such as thruster valve.

  20. Scaling Quelccaya: Using 3-D Animation and Satellite Data To Visualize Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, A.; Leich, M.

    2017-12-01

    The near-global glacier retreat of recent decades is among the most convincing evidence for contemporary climate change. The epicenter of this action, however, is often far from population-dense centers. How can a glacier's scale, both physical and temporal, be communicated to those faraway? This project, an artists-scientist collaboration, proposes an alternate system for presenting climate change data, designed to evoke a more visceral response through a visual, geospatial, poetic approach. Focusing on the Quelccaya Ice Cap, the world's largest tropical glaciated area located in the Peruvian Andes, we integrate 30 years of satellite imagery and elevation models with 3D animation and gaming software, to bring it into a virtual juxtaposition with a model of the city of Chicago. Using Chicago as a cosmopolitan North American "measuring stick," we apply glaciological models to determine, for instance, the amount of ice that has melted on Quelccaya over the last 30 years and what the height of an equivalent amount of snow would fall on the city of Chicago (circa 600 feet, higher than the Willis Tower). Placing the two sites in a framework of intimate scale, we present a more imaginative and psychologically-astute manner of portraying the sober facts of climate change, by inviting viewers to learn and consider without inducing fear.

  1. Quantifying anthropogenic contributions to century-scale groundwater salinity changes, San Joaquin Valley, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Jeffrey; Jurgens, Bryant; Fram, Miranda S.

    2018-01-01

    Total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations in groundwater tapped for beneficial uses (drinking water, irrigation, freshwater industrial) have increased on average by about 100 mg/L over the last 100 years in the San Joaquin Valley, California (SJV). During this period land use in the SJV changed from natural vegetation and dryland agriculture to dominantly irrigated agriculture with growing urban areas. Century-scale salinity trends were evaluated by comparing TDS concentrations and major ion compositions of groundwater from wells sampled in 1910 (Historic) to data from wells sampled in 1993-2015 (Modern). TDS concentrations in subregions of the SJV, the southern (SSJV), western (WSJV), northeastern (NESJV), and southeastern (SESJV) were calculated using a cell-declustering method. TDS concentrations increased in all regions, with the greatest increases found in the SSJV and SESJV. Evaluation of the Modern data from the NESJV and SESJV found higher TDS concentrations in recently recharged (post-1950) groundwater from shallow (soil amendments combined. Bicarbonate showed the greatest increase among major ions, resulting from enhanced silicate weathering due to recharge of irrigation water enriched in CO2 during the growing season. The results of this study demonstrate that large anthropogenic changes to the hydrologic regime, like massive development of irrigated agriculture in semi-arid areas like the SJV, can cause large changes in groundwater quality on a regional scale.

  2. Spatial and topographic trends in forest expansion and biomass change, from regional to local scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buma, Brian; Barrett, Tara M

    2015-09-01

    Natural forest growth and expansion are important carbon sequestration processes globally. Climate change is likely to increase forest growth in some regions via CO2 fertilization, increased temperatures, and altered precipitation; however, altered disturbance regimes and climate stress (e.g. drought) will act to reduce carbon stocks in forests as well. Observations of asynchrony in forest change is useful in determining current trends in forest carbon stocks, both in terms of forest density (e.g. Mg ha(-1) ) and spatially (extent and location). Monitoring change in natural (unmanaged) areas is particularly useful, as while afforestation and recovery from historic land use are currently large carbon sinks, the long-term viability of those sinks depends on climate change and disturbance dynamics at their particular location. We utilize a large, unmanaged biome (>135 000 km(2) ) which spans a broad latitudinal gradient to explore how variation in location affects forest density and spatial patterning: the forests of the North American temperate rainforests in Alaska, which store >2.8 Pg C in biomass and soil, equivalent to >8% of the C in contiguous US forests. We demonstrate that the regional biome is shifting; gains exceed losses and are located in different spatio-topographic contexts. Forest gains are concentrated on northerly aspects, lower elevations, and higher latitudes, especially in sheltered areas, whereas loss is skewed toward southerly aspects and lower latitudes. Repeat plot-scale biomass data (n = 759) indicate that within-forest biomass gains outpace losses (live trees >12.7 cm diameter, 986 Gg yr(-1) ) on gentler slopes and in higher latitudes. This work demonstrates that while temperate rainforest dynamics occur at fine spatial scales (biomass accumulation suggest the potential for relatively rapid biome shifts and biomass changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Sustained Large-Scale Collective Climate Action Supported by Effective Climate Change Education Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F., III; Crim, H.; Fiorile, G.; Eldadah, S.

    2017-12-01

    Since 2012, the Climate and Energy Literacy community have realized that as cities, nations and the international community seek solutions to global climate change over the coming decades, a more comprehensive, interdisciplinary approach to climate literacy—one that includes economic and social considerations—will play a vital role in knowledgeable planning, decision-making, and governance. City, county and state leaders are now leading the American response to a changing climate by incubating social innovation to prevail in the face of unprecedented change. Cities are beginning to realize the importance of critical investments to support the policies and strategies that will foster the climate literacy necessary for citizens to understand the urgency of climate actions and to succeed in a resilient post-carbon economy and develop the related workforce. Over decade of federal and non-profit Climate Change Education effective methods have been developed that can support municipality's significant educational capabilities for the purpose of strengthening and scaling city, state, business, and education actions designed to sustain and effectively address this significant social change. Looking to foster the effective and innovative strategies that will enable their communities several networks have collaborated to identify recommendations for effective education and communication practices when working with different types of audiences. U.S. National Science Foundation funded Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) Alliance, the National Wildlife Federation, NOAA Climate Program Office, Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Collaborative and the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) are working to develop a new web portal that will highlight "effective" practices that includes the acquisition and use of climate change knowledge to inform decision-making. The purpose of the web portal is to transfer effective practice to support communities to be

  4. Climatological changing effects on wind, precipitation and erosion: Large, meso and small scale analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aslan, Z.

    2004-01-01

    The Fourier transformation analysis for monthly average values of meteorological parameters has been considered, and amplitudes, phase angles have been calculated by using ground measurements in Turkey. The first order harmonics of meteorological parameters show large scale effects, while higher order harmonics show the effects of small scale fluctuations. The variations of first through sixth order harmonic amplitudes and phases provide a useful means of understanding the large and local scale effects on meteorological parameters. The phase angle can be used to determine the time of year the maximum or minimum of a given harmonic occurs. The analysis helps us to distinguish different pressure, relative humidity, temperature, precipitation and wind speed regimes and transition regions. Local and large scale phenomenon and some unusual seasonal patterns are also defined near Keban Dam and the irrigation area. Analysis of precipitation based on long term data shows that semi-annual fluctuations are predominant in the study area. Similarly, pressure variations are mostly influenced by semi-annual fluctuations. Temperature and humidity variations are mostly influenced by meso and micro scale fluctuations. Many large and meso scale climate change simulations for the 21st century are based on concentration of green house gases. A better understanding of these effects on soil erosion is necessary to determine social, economic and other impacts of erosion. The second part of this study covers the time series analysis of precipitation, rainfall erosivity and wind erosion at the Marmara Region. Rainfall and runoff erosivity factors are defined by considering the results of field measurements at 10 stations. Climatological changing effects on rainfall erosion have been determined by monitoring meteorological variables. In the previous studies, Fournier Index is defined to estimate the rainfall erosivity for the study area. The Fournier Index or in other words a climatic index

  5. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  6. Length scale hierarchy and spatiotemporal change of alluvial morphologies over the Selenga River delta, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, T. Y.; Nittrouer, J.; McElroy, B. J.; Ma, H.; Czapiga, M. J.; Il'icheva, E.; Pavlov, M.; Parker, G.

    2017-12-01

    The movement of water and sediment in natural channels creates various types of alluvial morphologies that span length scales from dunes to deltas. The behavior of these morphologies is controlled microscopically by hydrodynamic conditions and bed material size, and macroscopically by hydrologic and geological settings. Alluvial morphologies can be modeled as either diffusive or kinematic waves, in accordance with their respective boundary conditions. Recently, it has been shown that the difference between these two dynamic behaviors of alluvial morphologies can be characterized by the backwater number, which is a dimensionless value normalizing the length scale of a morphological feature to its local hydrodynamic condition. Application of the backwater number has proven useful for evaluating the size of morphologies, including deltas (e.g., by assessing the preferential avulsion location of a lobe), and for comparing bedform types across different fluvial systems. Yet two critical questions emerge when applying the backwater number: First, how do different types of alluvial morphologies compare within a single deltaic system, where there is a hydrodynamic transition from uniform to non-uniform flow? Second, how do different types of morphologies evolve temporally within a system as a function of changing water discharge? This study addresses these questions by compiling and analyzing field data from the Selenga River delta, Russia, which include measurements of flow velocity, channel geometry, bed material grain size, and channel slope, as well as length scales of various morphologies, including dunes, island bars, meanders, bifurcations, and delta lobes. Data analyses reveal that the length scale of morphologies decrease and the backwater number increases as flow transitions from uniform to non-uniform conditions progressing downstream. It is shown that the evaluated length scale hierarchy and planform distribution of different morphologies can be used to

  7. Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teutschbein, Claudia [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Wetterhall, Fredrik [King' s College London, Department of Geography, Strand, London (United Kingdom); Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Seibert, Jan [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden); University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-11-15

    Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961-1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071-2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions. (orig.)

  8. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  9. Classification as a generic tool for characterising status and changes of regional scale groundwater systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthel, Roland; Haaf, Ezra

    2016-04-01

    Regional hydrogeology is becoming increasingly important, but at the same time, scientifically sound, universal solutions for typical groundwater problems encountered on the regional scale are hard to find. While managers, decision-makers and state agencies operating on regional and national levels have always shown a strong interest in regional scale hydrogeology, researchers from academia tend to avoid the subject, focusing instead on local scales. Additionally, hydrogeology has always had a tendency to regard every problem as unique to its own site- and problem-specific context. Regional scale hydrogeology is therefore pragmatic rather than aiming at developing generic methodology (Barthel, 2014; Barthel and Banzhaf, 2016). One of the main challenges encountered on the regional scale in hydrogeology is the extreme heterogeneity that generally increases with the size of the studied area - paired with relative data scarcity. Even in well-monitored regions of the world, groundwater observations are usually clustered, leaving large areas without any direct data. However, there are many good reasons for assessing the status and predicting the behavior of groundwater systems under conditions of global change even for those areas and aquifers without observations. This is typically done by using rather coarsely discretized and / or poorly parameterized numerical models, or by using very simplistic conceptual hydrological models that do not take into account the complex three-dimensional geological setup. Numerical models heavily rely on local data and are resource-demanding. Conceptual hydrological models only deliver reliable information on groundwater if the geology is extremely simple. In this contribution, we present an approach to derive statistically relevant information for un-monitored areas, making use of existing information from similar localities that are or have been monitored. The approach combines site-specific knowledge with conceptual assumptions on

  10. An experimental verification of the compensation of length change of line scales caused by ambient air pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Akira; Miwa, Nobuharu

    2010-01-01

    Line scales are used as a working standard of length for the calibration of optical measuring instruments such as profile projectors, measuring microscopes and video measuring systems. The authors have developed a one-dimensional calibration system for line scales to obtain a lower uncertainty of measurement. The scale calibration system, named Standard Scale Calibrator SSC-05, employs a vacuum interferometer system for length measurement, a 633 nm iodine-stabilized He–Ne laser to calibrate the oscillating frequency of the interferometer laser light source and an Abbe's error compensation structure. To reduce the uncertainty of measurement, the uncertainty factors of the line scale and ambient conditions should not be neglected. Using the length calibration system, the expansion and contraction of a line scale due to changes in ambient air pressure were observed and the measured scale length was corrected into the length under standard atmospheric pressure, 1013.25 hPa. Utilizing a natural rapid change in the air pressure caused by a tropical storm (typhoon), we carried out an experiment on the length measurement of a 1000 mm long line scale made of glass ceramic with a low coefficient of thermal expansion. Using a compensation formula for the length change caused by changes in ambient air pressure, the length change of the 1000 mm long line scale was compensated with a standard deviation of less than 1 nm

  11. The reduction method of statistic scale applied to study of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernal Suarez, Nestor Ricardo; Molina Lizcano, Alicia; Martinez Collantes, Jorge; Pabon Jose Daniel

    2000-01-01

    In climate change studies the global circulation models of the atmosphere (GCMAs) enable one to simulate the global climate, with the field variables being represented on a grid points 300 km apart. One particular interest concerns the simulation of possible changes in rainfall and surface air temperature due to an assumed increase of greenhouse gases. However, the models yield the climatic projections on grid points that in most cases do not correspond to the sites of major interest. To achieve local estimates of the climatological variables, methods like the one known as statistical down scaling are applied. In this article we show a case in point by applying canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to the Guajira Region in the northeast of Colombia

  12. Climate equivalence scales and the effects of climate change on Russian welfare and well-being

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frijters, P. [Tinbergen Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)] Van Praag, B.M.S. [Foundation for Economic Research SEO, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    The concepts of welfare and well-being are made operational and are measured for two large Russian household surveys, carried out in 1993 and 1994. Welfare refers to satisfaction with income and well-being refers to satisfaction with life as a whole. The main question in this paper is how different climatic conditions in various parts of Russia affect the cost of living and well-being. This approach yields climate equivalence scales for both welfare and well-being. Finally we apply the result to assess the impact of a climate change. Under the assumption that the climate cost structure is invariant under climate change, an increase of 2 Celsius in average temperature could mean an effective decrease in the cost of living of 32% on average in Russia. 5 tabs., 1 app., 28 refs.

  13. Generic framework for meso-scale assessment of climate change hazards in coastal environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl

    2013-01-01

    coastal environments worldwide through a specially designed coastal classification system containing 113 generic coastal types. The framework provides information on the degree to which key climate change hazards are inherent in a particular coastal environment, and covers the hazards of ecosystem......This paper presents a generic framework for assessing inherent climate change hazards in coastal environments through a combined coastal classification and hazard evaluation system. The framework is developed to be used at scales relevant for regional and national planning and aims to cover all...... and computing requirements, allowing for application in developing country settings. It is presented as a graphical tool—the Coastal Hazard Wheel—to ease its application for planning purposes....

  14. Very small glaciers under climate change: from the local to the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huss, M.; Fischer, M.

    2015-12-01

    Very small glaciers (climate archive. Very small glaciers have generally shorter response times than valley glaciers and their mass balance is strongly dependent on snow redistribution processes. Worldwide glacier monitoring has focused on medium-sized to large glaciers leaving us with a relatively limited understanding of the behavior of very small glaciers. With warming climate there is an increasing concern that very small glaciers might be the first to disappear. Already in the next decades this might result in the complete deglaciation of mountain ranges with glacier equilibrium lines close to the highest peaks, such as in the Rocky Mountains, the European Alps, the Andes or parts of High Mountain Asia. In this contribution, we present a comprehensive modelling framework to assess past and future changes in very small glaciers at the mountain-range scale. Among other processes our model accounts for snow redistribution, changes in glacier geometry and dynamic changes in debris-coverage, and computes e.g. distributed mass balance, englacial temperature and proglacial runoff. Detailed glacier projections until 2060 are shown for the Swiss Alps based on new data sets, and the 21st century contribution of all very small glaciers worldwide to sea-level rise is quantified using a global model. Grid-based modelling of surface mass balance and retreat for 1133 very small glaciers in Switzerland indicates that 70% of them will completely vanish within the next 25 years. However, a few avalanche-fed glaciers at low elevation might be able to survive even substantial atmospheric warming. We find relatively high static and dynamic sensitivities for gently-sloping glaciers. At the global scale, glaciers presently smaller than 1 km2 make up for only 0.7% of total ice volume but account for 6.7% of sea-level rise contribution during the period 2015-2025. This indicates that very small glaciers are a non-negligible component of global glacier change, at least in the near

  15. Was millennial scale climate change during the Last Glacial triggered by explosive volcanism?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldini, James U L; Brown, Richard J; McElwaine, Jim N

    2015-11-30

    The mechanisms responsible for millennial scale climate change within glacial time intervals are equivocal. Here we show that all eight known radiometrically-dated Tambora-sized or larger NH eruptions over the interval 30 to 80 ka BP are associated with abrupt Greenland cooling (>95% confidence). Additionally, previous research reported a strong statistical correlation between the timing of Southern Hemisphere volcanism and Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events (>99% confidence), but did not identify a causative mechanism. Volcanic aerosol-induced asymmetrical hemispheric cooling over the last few hundred years restructured atmospheric circulation in a similar fashion as that associated with Last Glacial millennial-scale shifts (albeit on a smaller scale). We hypothesise that following both recent and Last Glacial NH eruptions, volcanogenic sulphate injections into the stratosphere cooled the NH preferentially, inducing a hemispheric temperature asymmetry that shifted atmospheric circulation cells southward. This resulted in Greenland cooling, Antarctic warming, and a southward shifted ITCZ. However, during the Last Glacial, the initial eruption-induced climate response was prolonged by NH glacier and sea ice expansion, increased NH albedo, AMOC weakening, more NH cooling, and a consequent positive feedback. Conversely, preferential SH cooling following large SH eruptions shifted atmospheric circulation to the north, resulting in the characteristic features of DO events.

  16. Multiple time scale analysis of sediment and runoff changes in the Lower Yellow River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Chi

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Sediment and runoff changes of seven hydrological stations along the Lower Yellow River (LYR (Huayuankou Station, Jiahetan Station, Gaocun Station, Sunkou Station, Ai Shan Station, Qikou Station and Lijin Station from 1980 to 2003 were alanyzed at multiple time scale. The maximum value of monthly, daily and hourly sediment load and runoff conservations were also analyzed with the annually mean value. Mann–Kendall non-parametric mathematics correlation test and Hurst coefficient method were adopted in the study. Research results indicate that (1 the runoff of seven hydrological stations was significantly reduced in the study period at different time scales. However, the trends of sediment load in these stations were not obvious. The sediment load of Huayuankou, Jiahetan and Aishan stations even slightly increased with the runoff decrease. (2 The trends of the sediment load with different time scale showed differences at Luokou and Lijin stations. Although the annually and monthly sediment load were broadly flat, the maximum hourly sediment load showed decrease trend. (3 According to the Hurst coefficients, the trend of sediment and runoff will be continue without taking measures, which proved the necessary of runoff-sediment regulation scheme.

  17. Impact of thermoelectric phenomena on phase-change memory performance metrics and scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jaeho; Asheghi, Mehdi; Goodson, Kenneth E

    2012-01-01

    The coupled transport of heat and electrical current, or thermoelectric phenomena, can strongly influence the temperature distribution and figures of merit for phase-change memory (PCM). This paper simulates PCM devices with careful attention to thermoelectric transport and the resulting impact on programming current during the reset operation. The electrothermal simulations consider Thomson heating within the phase-change material and Peltier heating at the electrode interface. Using representative values for the Thomson and Seebeck coefficients extracted from our past measurements of these properties, we predict a cell temperature increase of 44% and a decrease in the programming current of 16%. Scaling arguments indicate that the impact of thermoelectric phenomena becomes greater with smaller dimensions due to enhanced thermal confinement. This work estimates the scaling of this reduction in programming current as electrode contact areas are reduced down to 10 nm × 10 nm. Precise understanding of thermoelectric phenomena and their impact on device performance is a critical part of PCM design strategies. (paper)

  18. Detecting Land-Use Change and On-Farm Investments at the Plot Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burney, J. A.; Goldblatt, R.; Amezaga, K. Y.; Sanford, L.; Nichols, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    The ability to remotely monitor agro-ecosystems over large spatial scales, at high spatial and temporal resolution, promises to open new and previously un-tractable lines of inquiry about the relationships between management practices, welfare, and resilience in coupled human-natural systems. We use several sources of remotely sensed data (from vegetation indices to synthetic aperture radar) and new analysis methods to infer when and where land-use and management changes take place at the farm level, including processes leading to degradation, like overgrazing or tree removal, as well as processes intended to boost resilience, like irrigation and conservation agriculture. Here, we first show how ecosystem health metrics can be used as indicators of both poverty and vulnerability. This is especially important because many other remotely-sensed economic proxies exhibit hysteresis in one direction; that is, they may respond quickly to positive income shocks (e.g., a change in income may rapidly lead to more construction and an expansion of the urban environment), but little if at all to negative shocks (a drop in income does not lead to deconstruction of buildings). We then present results from three field projects that show how these techniques can be used to detect management changes — reflecting changes in household welfare — in both field and quasi/natural experiments.

  19. Color change of Blue butterfly wing scales in an air - Vapor ambient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kertész, Krisztián; Piszter, Gábor; Jakab, Emma; Bálint, Zsolt; Vértesy, Zofia; Biró, László Péter

    2013-09-01

    Photonic crystals are periodic dielectric nanocomposites, which have photonic band gaps that forbid the propagation of light within certain frequency ranges. The optical response of such nanoarchitectures on chemical changes in the environment is determined by the spectral change of the reflected light, and depends on the composition of the ambient atmosphere and on the nanostructure characteristics. We carried out reflectance measurements on closely related Blue lycaenid butterfly males possessing so-called "pepper-pot" type photonic nanoarchitecture in their scales covering their dorsal wing surfaces. Experiments were carried out changing the concentration and nature of test vapors while monitoring the spectral variations in time. All the tests were done with the sample temperature set at, and below the room temperature. The spectral changes were found to be linear with the increasing of concentration and the signal amplitude is higher at lower temperatures. The mechanism of reflectance spectra modification is based on capillary condensation of the vapors penetrating in the nanostructure. These structures of natural origin may serve as cheap, environmentally free and biodegradable sensor elements. The study of these nanoarchitectures of biologic origin could be the source of various new bioinspired systems.

  20. Color change of Blue butterfly wing scales in an air – Vapor ambient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kertész, Krisztián; Piszter, Gábor; Jakab, Emma; Bálint, Zsolt; Vértesy, Zofia; Biró, László Péter

    2013-01-01

    Photonic crystals are periodic dielectric nanocomposites, which have photonic band gaps that forbid the propagation of light within certain frequency ranges. The optical response of such nanoarchitectures on chemical changes in the environment is determined by the spectral change of the reflected light, and depends on the composition of the ambient atmosphere and on the nanostructure characteristics. We carried out reflectance measurements on closely related Blue lycaenid butterfly males possessing so-called “pepper-pot” type photonic nanoarchitecture in their scales covering their dorsal wing surfaces. Experiments were carried out changing the concentration and nature of test vapors while monitoring the spectral variations in time. All the tests were done with the sample temperature set at, and below the room temperature. The spectral changes were found to be linear with the increasing of concentration and the signal amplitude is higher at lower temperatures. The mechanism of reflectance spectra modification is based on capillary condensation of the vapors penetrating in the nanostructure. These structures of natural origin may serve as cheap, environmentally free and biodegradable sensor elements. The study of these nanoarchitectures of biologic origin could be the source of various new bioinspired systems.

  1. Color change of Blue butterfly wing scales in an air – Vapor ambient

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kertész, Krisztián, E-mail: kertesz.krisztian@ttk.mta.hu [Institute of Technical Physics and Materials Science, Centre for Natural Sciences, H-1525 Budapest, PO Box 49, Hungary(http://www.nanotechnology.hu) (Hungary); Piszter, Gábor [Institute of Technical Physics and Materials Science, Centre for Natural Sciences, H-1525 Budapest, PO Box 49, Hungary(http://www.nanotechnology.hu) (Hungary); Jakab, Emma [Institute of Materials and Environmental Chemistry, Centre for Natural Sciences, H-1525 Budapest, PO Box 17 (Hungary); Bálint, Zsolt [Hungarian Natural History Museum, Baross utca 13, H-1088 Budapest (Hungary); Vértesy, Zofia; Biró, László Péter [Institute of Technical Physics and Materials Science, Centre for Natural Sciences, H-1525 Budapest, PO Box 49, Hungary(http://www.nanotechnology.hu) (Hungary)

    2013-09-15

    Photonic crystals are periodic dielectric nanocomposites, which have photonic band gaps that forbid the propagation of light within certain frequency ranges. The optical response of such nanoarchitectures on chemical changes in the environment is determined by the spectral change of the reflected light, and depends on the composition of the ambient atmosphere and on the nanostructure characteristics. We carried out reflectance measurements on closely related Blue lycaenid butterfly males possessing so-called “pepper-pot” type photonic nanoarchitecture in their scales covering their dorsal wing surfaces. Experiments were carried out changing the concentration and nature of test vapors while monitoring the spectral variations in time. All the tests were done with the sample temperature set at, and below the room temperature. The spectral changes were found to be linear with the increasing of concentration and the signal amplitude is higher at lower temperatures. The mechanism of reflectance spectra modification is based on capillary condensation of the vapors penetrating in the nanostructure. These structures of natural origin may serve as cheap, environmentally free and biodegradable sensor elements. The study of these nanoarchitectures of biologic origin could be the source of various new bioinspired systems.

  2. Did Large-Scale Vaccination Drive Changes in the Circulating Rotavirus Population in Belgium?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitzer, Virginia E.; Bilcke, Joke; Heylen, Elisabeth; Crawford, Forrest W.; Callens, Michael; De Smet, Frank; Van Ranst, Marc; Zeller, Mark; Matthijnssens, Jelle

    2015-01-01

    Vaccination can place selective pressures on viral populations, leading to changes in the distribution of strains as viruses evolve to escape immunity from the vaccine. Vaccine-driven strain replacement is a major concern after nationwide rotavirus vaccine introductions. However, the distribution of the predominant rotavirus genotypes varies from year to year in the absence of vaccination, making it difficult to determine what changes can be attributed to the vaccines. To gain insight in the underlying dynamics driving changes in the rotavirus population, we fitted a hierarchy of mathematical models to national and local genotype-specific hospitalization data from Belgium, where large-scale vaccination was introduced in 2006. We estimated that natural- and vaccine-derived immunity was strongest against completely homotypic strains and weakest against fully heterotypic strains, with an intermediate immunity amongst partially heterotypic strains. The predominance of G2P[4] infections in Belgium after vaccine introduction can be explained by a combination of natural genotype fluctuations and weaker natural and vaccine-induced immunity against infection with strains heterotypic to the vaccine, in the absence of significant variation in strain-specific vaccine effectiveness against disease. However, the incidence of rotavirus gastroenteritis is predicted to remain low despite vaccine-driven changes in the distribution of genotypes. PMID:26687288

  3. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  4. Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2018-03-01

    Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

  5. National Scale Prediction of Soil Carbon Sequestration under Scenarios of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izaurralde, R. C.; Thomson, A. M.; Potter, S. R.; Atwood, J. D.; Williams, J. R.

    2006-12-01

    Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is gaining momentum as a tool to mitigate the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2. Researchers from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Texas A&M University, and USDA-NRCS used the EPIC model to develop national-scale predictions of soil carbon sequestration with adoption of no till (NT) under scenarios of climate change. In its current form, the EPIC model simulates soil C changes resulting from heterotrophic respiration and wind / water erosion. Representative modeling units were created to capture the climate, soil, and management variability at the 8-digit hydrologic unit (USGS classification) watershed scale. The soils selected represented at least 70% of the variability within each watershed. This resulted in 7,540 representative modeling units for 1,412 watersheds. Each watershed was assigned a major crop system: corn, soybean, spring wheat, winter wheat, cotton, hay, alfalfa, corn-soybean rotation or wheat-fallow rotation based on information from the National Resource Inventory. Each representative farm was simulated with conventional tillage and no tillage, and with and without irrigation. Climate change scenarios for two future periods (2015-2045 and 2045-2075) were selected from GCM model runs using the IPCC SRES scenarios of A2 and B2 from the UK Hadley Center (HadCM3) and US DOE PCM (PCM) models. Changes in mean and standard deviation of monthly temperature and precipitation were extracted from gridded files and applied to baseline climate (1960-1990) for each of the 1,412 modeled watersheds. Modeled crop yields were validated against historical USDA NASS county yields (1960-1990). The HadCM3 model predicted the most severe changes in climate parameters. Overall, there would be little difference between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Carbon offsets were calculated as the difference in soil C change between conventional and no till. Overall, C offsets during the first 30-y period (513 Tg C) are predicted to

  6. Response to: 'Why medical professionals have no moral claim to conscientious objection accommodation in liberal democracies' by Schuklenk and Smalling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Shimon M; Jotkowitz, Alan

    2017-04-01

    The recent essay by Schuklenk and Smalling opposing respect for physicians' conscientious objections to providing patients with medical services that are legally permitted in liberal democracies is based on several erroneous assumptions. Acting in this manner would have serious harmful effects on the ethos of medicine and of bioethics. A much more nuanced and balanced position is critical in order to respect physicians' conscience with minimal damage to patients' rights. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  7. Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

    2009-04-01

    In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

  8. Analysis of Multi-Scale Changes in Arable Land and Scale Effects of the Driving Factors in the Loess Areas in Northern Shaanxi, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Zhong

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, statistical data on the national economic and social development, including the year-end actual area of arable land, the crop yield per unit area and 10 factors, were obtained for the period between 1980 and 2010 and used to analyze the factors driving changes in the arable land of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi, China. The following areas of arable land, which represent different spatial scales, were investigated: the Baota District, the city of Yan’an, and the Northern Shaanxi region. The scale effects of the factors driving the changes to the arable land were analyzed using a canonical correlation analysis and a principal component analysis. Because it was difficult to quantify the impact of the national government policies on the arable land changes, the contributions of the national government policies to the changes in arable land were analyzed qualitatively. The primary conclusions of the study were as follows: between 1980 and 2010, the arable land area decreased. The trends of the year-end actual arable land proportion of the total area in the northern Shaanxi region and Yan’an City were broadly consistent, whereas the proportion in the Baota District had no obvious similarity with the northern Shaanxi region and Yan’an City. Remarkably different factors were shown to influence the changes in the arable land at different scales. Environmental factors exerted a greater effect for smaller scale arable land areas (the Baota District. The effect of socio-economic development was a major driving factor for the changes in the arable land area at the city and regional scales. At smaller scales, population change, urbanization and socio-economic development affected the crop yield per unit area either directly or indirectly. Socio-economic development and the modernization of agricultural technology had a greater effect on the crop yield per unit area at the large-scales. Furthermore, the qualitative analysis

  9. Ecoregional-scale monitoring within conservation areas, in a rapidly changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beever, Erik A.; Woodward, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    Long-term monitoring of ecological systems can prove invaluable for resource management and conservation. Such monitoring can: (1) detect instances of long-term trend (either improvement or deterioration) in monitored resources, thus providing an early-warning indication of system change to resource managers; (2) inform management decisions and help assess the effects of management actions, as well as anthropogenic and natural disturbances; and (3) provide the grist for supplemental research on mechanisms of system dynamics and cause-effect relationships (Fancy et al., 2009). Such monitoring additionally provides a snapshot of the status of monitored resources during each sampling cycle, and helps assess whether legal standards and regulations are being met. Until the last 1-2 decades, tracking and understanding changes in condition of natural resources across broad spatial extents have been infrequently attempted. Several factors, however, are facilitating the achievement of such broad-scale investigation and monitoring. These include increasing awareness of the importance of landscape context, greater prevalence of regional and global environmental stressors, and the rise of landscape-scale programs designed to manage and monitor biological systems. Such programs include the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program (Moser et al., 2008), Canada's National Forest Inventory, the 3Q Programme for monitoring agricultural landscapes of Norway (Dramstad et al., 2002), and the emerging (US) Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (USDOI Secretarial Order 3289, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). This Special Section explores the underlying design considerations, as well as many pragmatic aspects associated with program implementation and interpretation of results from broad-scale monitoring systems, particularly within the constraints of high-latitude contexts (e.g., low road density, short field season, dramatic fluctuations in temperature). Although Alaska is

  10. Childhood Personality, Betrayal Trauma, and Leukocyte Telomere Length in Adulthood: A Lifespan Perspective on Conscientiousness and Betrayal Traumas as Predictors of a Biomarker of Cellular Aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, Grant W; Hampson, Sarah E; Côté, Hélène C F; Hill, Patrick L; Klest, Bridget

    2016-01-01

    Conscientiousness is associated with longevity. As such, identifying the biological pathways linking personality to mortality is important. This study employs longitudinal data spanning >40 years to test prospective associations with Leukocyte Telomere Length (LTL), a potential marker of cellular aging. Because telomeres shorten over time, and are sensitive to oxidative stress, shorter LTL may reflect cumulative damage associated with negative health behaviors and past stressful events. We investigated childhood conscientiousness as a protective factor, expecting an association with longer LTL in adulthood, possibly reflecting slower LTL shortening. Potential lifespan pathways involving childhood trauma, smoking behaviors, and Body Mass Index (BMI) were explored. Childhood conscientiousness showed a small raw association with LTL ( r = .08, p = .04), although this effect did not persist when controlling for age and sex. Despite this lack of a direct effect on LTL, we detected an indirect effect operating jointly through BMI and smoking. Higher rates of childhood betrayal trauma were associated with shorter LTL. Contrary to our hypothesis that conscientiousness would buffer this effect, we found evidence for an interaction with childhood betrayal traumas where the association between childhood betrayal traumas and LTL was larger for those higher on conscientiousness in childhood.

  11. Peering into the Brain to Predict Behavior: Peer-Reported, but not Self-Reported, Conscientiousness Links Threat-Related Amygdala Activity to Future Problem Drinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swartz, Johnna R.; Knodt, Annchen R.; Radtke, Spenser R.; Hariri, Ahmad R.

    2016-01-01

    Personality traits such as conscientiousness as self-reported by individuals can help predict a range of outcomes, from job performance to longevity. Asking others to rate the personality of their acquaintances often provides even better predictive power than using self-report. Here, we examine whether peer-reported personality can provide a better link between brain function, namely threat-related amygdala activity, and future health-related behavior, namely problem drinking, than self-reported personality. Using data from a sample of 377 young adult university students who were rated on five personality traits by peers, we find that higher threat-related amygdala activity to fearful facial expressions is associated with higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness. Moreover, higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness predicts lower future problem drinking more than one year later, an effect specific to men. Remarkably, relatively higher amygdala activity has an indirect effect on future drinking behavior in men, linked by peer-reported conscientiousness to lower future problem drinking. Our results provide initial evidence that the perceived conscientiousness of an individual by their peers uniquely reflects variability in a core neural mechanism supporting threat responsiveness. These novel patterns further suggest that incorporating peer-reported measures of personality into individual differences research can reveal novel predictive pathways of risk and protection for problem behaviors. PMID:27717769

  12. Peering into the brain to predict behavior: Peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness links threat-related amygdala activity to future problem drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swartz, Johnna R; Knodt, Annchen R; Radtke, Spenser R; Hariri, Ahmad R

    2017-02-01

    Personality traits such as conscientiousness as self-reported by individuals can help predict a range of outcomes, from job performance to longevity. Asking others to rate the personality of their acquaintances often provides even better predictive power than using self-report. Here, we examine whether peer-reported personality can provide a better link between brain function, namely threat-related amygdala activity, and future health-related behavior, namely problem drinking, than self-reported personality. Using data from a sample of 377 young adult university students who were rated on five personality traits by peers, we find that higher threat-related amygdala activity to fearful facial expressions is associated with higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness. Moreover, higher peer-reported, but not self-reported, conscientiousness predicts lower future problem drinking more than one year later, an effect specific to men. Remarkably, relatively higher amygdala activity has an indirect effect on future drinking behavior in men, linked by peer-reported conscientiousness to lower future problem drinking. Our results provide initial evidence that the perceived conscientiousness of an individual by their peers uniquely reflects variability in a core neural mechanism supporting threat responsiveness. These novel patterns further suggest that incorporating peer-reported measures of personality into individual differences research can reveal novel predictive pathways of risk and protection for problem behaviors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Global climate change - a feasibility perspective of its effect on human health at a local scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Bernardi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available There are two responses to global climate change. First, mitigation, which actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester or store carbon in the short-term, and make development choices that will lead to low emissions in the long-term. Second, adaptation, which involves adjustments in natural or human systems and behaviours that reduce the risks posed by climate change to people’s lives and livelihoods. While the two are conceptually distinct, in practice they are very much interdependent, and both are equally urgent from a healthy population perspective. To define the policies to mitigate and to adapt to global climate change, data and information at all scales are the basic requirement for both developed and developing countries. However, as compared to mitigation, adaptation is an immediate concern for low-income countries and for small islands states, where the reduction of the emissions from greenhouse gases is not among their priorities. Adaptation is also highly location specific and the required ground data to assess the impacts of climate change on human health are not available. Climate data at high spatial resolution can be derived by various downscaling methods using historical and real-time meteorological observations but, particularly in low-income countries, the outputs are limited by the lack of ground data at the local level. In many of these countries, a negative trend in the number of meteorological stations as compared as to before 2000 is evident, while remotelysensed imagery becomes more and more available at high spatial and temporal resolution. The final consequence is that climate change policy options in the developing world are greatly jeopardized.

  14. Large-scale patterns of turnover and Basal area change in Andean forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selene Báez

    Full Text Available General patterns of forest dynamics and productivity in the Andes Mountains are poorly characterized. Here we present the first large-scale study of Andean forest dynamics using a set of 63 permanent forest plots assembled over the past two decades. In the North-Central Andes tree turnover (mortality and recruitment and tree growth declined with increasing elevation and decreasing temperature. In addition, basal area increased in Lower Montane Moist Forests but did not change in Higher Montane Humid Forests. However, at higher elevations the lack of net basal area change and excess of mortality over recruitment suggests negative environmental impacts. In North-Western Argentina, forest dynamics appear to be influenced by land use history in addition to environmental variation. Taken together, our results indicate that combinations of abiotic and biotic factors that vary across elevation gradients are important determinants of tree turnover and productivity in the Andes. More extensive and longer-term monitoring and analyses of forest dynamics in permanent plots will be necessary to understand how demographic processes and woody biomass are responding to changing environmental conditions along elevation gradients through this century.

  15. Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

  16. Development of the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarang Kim

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: It is not yet understood how attitudes concerning dementia risk may affect motivation to change health behaviours and lifestyle. This study was designed to develop a reliable and valid theory-based measure to understand beliefs underpinning the lifestyle and health behavioural changes needed for dementia risk reduction. Methods: 617 participants aged ≥50 years completed a theory-based questionnaire, namely, the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction (MCLHB-DRR scale. The MCLHB-DRR consists of 53 items, reflecting seven subscales of the Health Belief Model. Results: Confirmatory factor analysis was performed and revealed that a seven-factor solution with 27 items fitted the data (comparative fit index = 0.920, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.047 better than the original 53 items. Internal reliability (α = 0.608-0.864 and test-retest reliability (α = 0.552-0.776 were moderate to high. Measurement of invariance across gender and age was also demonstrated. Conclusions: These results propose that the MCLHB-DRR is a useful tool in assessing the beliefs and attitudes of males and females aged ≥50 years towards dementia risk reduction. This measure can be used in the development and evaluation of interventions aimed at dementia prevention.

  17. Methods for assessment of climate variability and climate changes in different time-space scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobanov, V.; Lobanova, H.

    2004-01-01

    Main problem of hydrology and design support for water projects connects with modern climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics as observed as well as designed. There are three main stages of this problem: - how to extract a climate variability and climate change from complex hydrological records; - how to assess the contribution of climate change and its significance for the point and area; - how to use the detected climate change for computation of design hydrological characteristics. Design hydrological characteristic is the main generalized information, which is used for water management and design support. First step of a research is a choice of hydrological characteristic, which can be as a traditional one (annual runoff for assessment of water resources, maxima, minima runoff, etc) as well as a new one, which characterizes an intra-annual function or intra-annual runoff distribution. For this aim a linear model has been developed which has two coefficients connected with an amplitude and level (initial conditions) of seasonal function and one parameter, which characterizes an intensity of synoptic and macro-synoptic fluctuations inside a year. Effective statistical methods have been developed for a separation of climate variability and climate change and extraction of homogeneous components of three time scales from observed long-term time series: intra annual, decadal and centural. The first two are connected with climate variability and the last (centural) with climate change. Efficiency of new methods of decomposition and smoothing has been estimated by stochastic modeling and well as on the synthetic examples. For an assessment of contribution and statistical significance of modern climate change components statistical criteria and methods have been used. Next step has been connected with a generalization of the results of detected climate changes over the area and spatial modeling. For determination of homogeneous region with the same

  18. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  19. MOCC: A Fast and Robust Correlation-Based Method for Interest Point Matching under Large Scale Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Wang Hao; Gao Wen; Huang Qingming; Zhao Feng

    2010-01-01

    Similarity measures based on correlation have been used extensively for matching tasks. However, traditional correlation-based image matching methods are sensitive to rotation and scale changes. This paper presents a fast correlation-based method for matching two images with large rotation and significant scale changes. Multiscale oriented corner correlation (MOCC) is used to evaluate the degree of similarity between the feature points. The method is rotation invariant and capable of matchin...

  20. A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

    OpenAIRE

    Anghileri, D.; Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

    2011-01-01

    While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our ...

  1. When the globe is your classroom: teaching and learning about large-scale environmental change online

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, E. A.; Coleman, K. J.; Barford, C. L.; Kucharik, C.; Foley, J. A.

    2005-12-01

    Understanding environmental problems that cross physical and disciplinary boundaries requires a more holistic view of the world - a "systems" approach. Yet it is a challenge for many learners to start thinking this way, particularly when the problems are large in scale and not easily visible. We will describe our online university course, "Humans and the Changing Biosphere," which takes a whole-systems perspective for teaching regional to global-scale environmental science concepts, including climate, hydrology, ecology, and human demographics. We will share our syllabus and learning objectives and summarize our efforts to incorporate "best" practices for online teaching. We will describe challenges we have faced, and our efforts to reach different learner types. Our goals for this presentation are: (1) to communicate how a systems approach ties together environmental sciences (including climate, hydrology, ecology, biogeochemistry, and demography) that are often taught as separate disciplines; (2) to generate discussion about challenges of teaching large-scale environmental processes; (3) to share our experiences in teaching these topics online; (4) to receive ideas and feedback on future teaching strategies. We will explain why we developed this course online, and share our experiences about benefits and challenges of teaching over the web - including some suggestions about how to use technology to supplement face-to-face learning experiences (and vice versa). We will summarize assessment data about what students learned during the course, and discuss key misconceptions and barriers to learning. We will highlight the role of an online discussion board in creating classroom community, identifying misconceptions, and engaging different types of learners.

  2. Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

  3. Changes in dental care access upon health care benefit expansion to include scaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Hee-Jung; Lee, Jun Hyup; Park, Sujin; Kim, Tae-Il

    2016-12-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the effects of a policy change to expand Korean National Health Insurance (KNHI) benefit coverage to include scaling on access to dental care at the national level. A nationally representative sample of 12,794 adults aged 20 to 64 years from Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2010-2014) was analyzed. To examine the effect of the policy on the outcomes of interest (unmet dental care needs and preventive dental care utilization in the past year), an estimates-based probit model was used, incorporating marginal effects with a complex sampling structure. The effect of the policy on individuals depending on their income and education level was also assessed. Adjusting for potential covariates, the probability of having unmet needs for dental care decreased by 6.1% and preventative dental care utilization increased by 14% in the post-policy period compared to those in the pre-policy period (2010, 2012). High income and higher education levels were associated with fewer unmet dental care needs and more preventive dental visits. The expansion of coverage to include scaling demonstrated to have a significant association with decreasing unmet dental care needs and increasing preventive dental care utilization. However, the policy disproportionately benefited certain groups, in contrast with the objective of the policy to benefit all participants in the KNHI system.

  4. Database support for adaptation to climate change: An assessment of web-based portals across scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Hans; Hilden, Mikael; Russel, Duncan; Dessai, Suraje

    2016-10-01

    The widely recognized increase in greenhouse gas emissions is necessitating adaptation to a changing climate, and policies are being developed and implemented worldwide, across sectors, and between government scales globally. The aim of this article is to reflect on one of the major challenges: facilitating and sharing information on the next adaptation practices. Web portals (i.e., web sites) for disseminating information are important tools in meeting this challenge, and therefore, we assessed the characteristics of select major portals across multiple scales. We found that there is a rather limited number of case studies available in the portals-between 900 and 1000 in total-with 95 that include cost information and 195 that include the participation of stakeholders globally. Portals are rarely cited by researchers, suggesting a suboptimal connection between the practical, policy-related, and scientific development of adaptation. The government portals often lack links on search results between US and European Union (EU) web sites, for example. With significant investments and policy development emerging in both the United States and the European Union, there is great potential to share information via portals. Moreover, there is the possibility of better connecting the practical adaptation experience from bottom-up projects to the science of adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:627-631. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  5. Prewhitening of hydroclimatic time series? Implications for inferred change and variability across time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, Saman; Vogel, Richard

    2018-02-01

    Prewhitening, the process of eliminating or reducing short-term stochastic persistence to enable detection of deterministic change, has been extensively applied to time series analysis of a range of geophysical variables. Despite the controversy around its utility, methodologies for prewhitening time series continue to be a critical feature of a variety of analyses including: trend detection of hydroclimatic variables and reconstruction of climate and/or hydrology through proxy records such as tree rings. With a focus on the latter, this paper presents a generalized approach to exploring the impact of a wide range of stochastic structures of short- and long-term persistence on the variability of hydroclimatic time series. Through this approach, we examine the impact of prewhitening on the inferred variability of time series across time scales. We document how a focus on prewhitened, residual time series can be misleading, as it can drastically distort (or remove) the structure of variability across time scales. Through examples with actual data, we show how such loss of information in prewhitened time series of tree rings (so-called "residual chronologies") can lead to the underestimation of extreme conditions in climate and hydrology, particularly droughts, reconstructed for centuries preceding the historical period.

  6. Large-scale conformational changes of Trypanosoma cruzi proline racemase predicted by accelerated molecular dynamics simulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Augusto F de Oliveira

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Chagas' disease, caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi, is a life-threatening illness affecting 11-18 million people. Currently available treatments are limited, with unacceptable efficacy and safety profiles. Recent studies have revealed an essential T. cruzi proline racemase enzyme (TcPR as an attractive candidate for improved chemotherapeutic intervention. Conformational changes associated with substrate binding to TcPR are believed to expose critical residues that elicit a host mitogenic B-cell response, a process contributing to parasite persistence and immune system evasion. Characterization of the conformational states of TcPR requires access to long-time-scale motions that are currently inaccessible by standard molecular dynamics simulations. Here we describe advanced accelerated molecular dynamics that extend the effective simulation time and capture large-scale motions of functional relevance. Conservation and fragment mapping analyses identified potential conformational epitopes located in the vicinity of newly identified transient binding pockets. The newly identified open TcPR conformations revealed by this study along with knowledge of the closed to open interconversion mechanism advances our understanding of TcPR function. The results and the strategy adopted in this work constitute an important step toward the rationalization of the molecular basis behind the mitogenic B-cell response of TcPR and provide new insights for future structure-based drug discovery.

  7. Modification of cementitious binder characteristics following a change in manufacturing scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coninck, P. de; Ferre, B.; Moinard, M.; Tronche, E.

    2015-01-01

    CEA is developing conditioning processes for the disposal of legacy nuclear waste. One of the waste materials is magnesium cladding removed from fuel elements irradiated in nuclear reactors. The final specifications that must be met by the packages mainly include mechanical strength, cracking, waste immobilization, and H 2 release. A matrix material has been selected that complies with the requirements. This material is a geo-polymer mortar. The purpose of this study was to measure the impact on the matrix material characteristics of a change in scale with the objective of industrializing a solid magnesium waste retrieval process. The process parameters tested were different production volumes (0.7, 210 and 1000 liter packages) and process temperatures (10, 22 and 40 C. degrees). 3 types of mixers were used to scale up the production volume. The results show that the process temperature has a significant impact on the viscosity, workability time and temperature of the matrix. The size of the mixers did not significantly influence the material characteristics

  8. Along the Rainfall-Runoff Chain: From Scaling of Greatest Point Rainfall to Global Change Attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraedrich, K.

    2014-12-01

    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain cover a wide range of time and space scales which are presented here combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts. (i) Rainfall, which can be simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process (vertical moisture fluxes), exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics), while extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function not unlike physical systems at criticality and the short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. Atmospheric and soil moisture variabilities are also discussed. (iii) Soil moisture (in a bucket), whose variability is interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, adds an equation of state to energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's frame work for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. Eco-hydrologic state space presentations in terms of surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation) allow attributions of state change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes. Including the vegetation-greenness index (NDVI) as an active tracer extends the eco-hydrologic state space analysis to supplement the common geographical presentations. Two examples demonstrate the approach combining ERA and MODIS data sets: (a) global geobotanic classification by combining first and second moments of the dryness ratio (net radiation over precipitation) and (b) regional attributions (Tibetan Plateau) of vegetation changes.

  9. Conscientiousness, openness to experience and extraversion as predictors of nursing work performance: a facet-level analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellershaw, Julia; Fullarton, Christie; Rodwell, John; Mcwilliams, John

    2016-03-01

    This study examined the relationships between the personality traits of conscientiousness, openness and extraversion at trait and facet-levels and three indicators of work role performance; proficiency, 'adaptivity' and proactivity measured at individual, team and organisational levels. This is one of the first studies to explore the relationship between personality, measured at trait and facet-level and performance using a comprehensive range of performance indicators. An online survey of 393 nurses from health-care organisations across Australia was conducted to test hypothesised relationships. Path analyses revealed numerous relationships between personality, measured at both trait and facet-levels, and work role performance. Conscientiousness was highlighted as the strongest driver of work role performance across all the indicators, with extraversion also strongly associated with work role performance. Openness to experience, previously considered a week predictor of performance, was, when examined at the facet-level, related to all of the work role performance indicators. Results suggests a bandwidth effect, where the personality traits drive global performance while the facets drive specific performance. Better understanding of the relationship between personality and work role performance will help nurse managers to foster the fit between individual and organisation, improving job satisfaction, engagement, retention and performance in role. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Di; Yang, Yuting; Yoshihide, Wada; Hong, Yang; Liang, Wei; Chen, Yaning; Yong, Bin; Hou, Aizhong; Wei, Jiangfeng; Chen, Lu

    2015-01-01

    This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive.

  11. Changes and Attribution of Extreme Precipitation in Climate Models: Subdaily and Daily Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Scoccimarro, E.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events are responsible for numerous hazards, including flooding, soil erosion, and landslides. Because of their significant socio-economic impacts, the attribution and projection of these events is of crucial importance to improve our response, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here we present results from our ongoing work.In terms of attribution, we use idealized experiments [pre-industrial control experiment (PI) and 1% per year increase (1%CO2) in atmospheric CO2] from ten general circulation models produced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the fraction of attributable risk to examine the CO2 effects on extreme precipitation at the sub-daily and daily scales. We find that the increased CO2 concentration substantially increases the odds of the occurrence of sub-daily precipitation extremes compared to the daily scale in most areas of the world, with the exception of some regions in the sub-tropics, likely in relation to the subsidence of the Hadley Cell. These results point to the large role that atmospheric CO2 plays in extreme precipitation under an idealized framework. Furthermore, we investigate the changes in extreme precipitation events with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate experiments using the scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. We find that the frequency of annual extreme precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative. Overall, the frequency of global annual extreme precipitation is similar between 1.5°C and 2°C for the period 2006-2035, and the changes in extreme precipitation in individual seasons are consistent with those for the entire year. The frequency of extreme precipitation in the 2°C experiments is higher than for the 1.5°C experiment after the late 2030s, particularly for the period 2071-2100.

  12. Distinguishing globally-driven changes from regional- and local-scale impacts: The case for long-term and broad-scale studies of recovery from pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C

    2017-11-30

    Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Records of millennial-scale climate change from the Great Basin of the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Larry

    High-resolution (decadal) records of climate change from the Owens, Mono, and Pyramid Lake basins of California and Nevada indicate that millennialscale oscillations in climate of the Great Basin occurred between 52.6 and 9.2 14C ka. Climate records from the Owens and Pyramid Lake basins indicate that most, but not all, glacier advances (stades) between 52.6 and ˜15.0 14C ka occurred during relatively dry times. During the last alpine glacial period (˜60.0 to ˜14.0 14C ka), stadial/interstadial oscillations were recorded in Owens and Pyramid Lake sediments by the negative response of phytoplankton productivity to the influx of glacially derived silicates. During glacier advances, rock flour diluted the TOC fraction of lake sediments and introduction of glacially derived suspended sediment also increased the turbidity of lake water, decreasing light penetration and photosynthetic production of organic carbon. It is not possible to correlate objectively peaks in the Owens and Pyramid Lake TOC records (interstades) with Dansgaard-Oeschger interstades in the GISP2 ice-core δ18O record given uncertainties in age control and difference in the shapes of the OL90, PLC92 and GISP2 records. In the North Atlantic region, some climate records have clearly defined variability/cyclicity with periodicities of 102 to 103 yr; these records are correlatable over several thousand km. In the Great Basin, climate proxies also have clearly defined variability with similar time constants, but the distance over which this variability can be correlated remains unknown. Globally, there may be minimal spatial scales (domains) within which climate varies coherently on centennial and millennial scales, but it is likely that the sizes of these domains vary with geographic setting and time. A more comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms of climate forcing and the physical linkages between climate forcing and system response is needed in order to predict the spatial scale(s) over which

  14. Shape shifting predicts ontogenetic changes in metabolic scaling in diverse aquatic invertebrates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glazier, Douglas S.; Hirst, Andrew G.; Atkinson, D.

    2016-01-01

    in metabolic scaling that deviate from 3/4-power scaling predicted by general models. Here, we show that in diverse aquatic invertebrates, ontogenetic shifts in the scaling of routine metabolic rate from near isometry (bR = scaling exponent approx. 1) to negative allometry (bR

  15. Large Scale Analyses and Visualization of Adaptive Amino Acid Changes Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Noé; Vieira, Cristina P; Amorim, Bárbara S R; Torres, André; López-Fernández, Hugo; Fdez-Riverola, Florentino; Sousa, José L R; Reboiro-Jato, Miguel; Vieira, Jorge

    2018-03-01

    When changes at few amino acid sites are the target of selection, adaptive amino acid changes in protein sequences can be identified using maximum-likelihood methods based on models of codon substitution (such as codeml). Although such methods have been employed numerous times using a variety of different organisms, the time needed to collect the data and prepare the input files means that tens or hundreds of coding regions are usually analyzed. Nevertheless, the recent availability of flexible and easy to use computer applications that collect relevant data (such as BDBM) and infer positively selected amino acid sites (such as ADOPS), means that the entire process is easier and quicker than before. However, the lack of a batch option in ADOPS, here reported, still precludes the analysis of hundreds or thousands of sequence files. Given the interest and possibility of running such large-scale projects, we have also developed a database where ADOPS projects can be stored. Therefore, this study also presents the B+ database, which is both a data repository and a convenient interface that looks at the information contained in ADOPS projects without the need to download and unzip the corresponding ADOPS project file. The ADOPS projects available at B+ can also be downloaded, unzipped, and opened using the ADOPS graphical interface. The availability of such a database ensures results repeatability, promotes data reuse with significant savings on the time needed for preparing datasets, and effortlessly allows further exploration of the data contained in ADOPS projects.

  16. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  17. Minimal detectable change of the Personal and Social Performance scale in individuals with schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shu-Chun; Tang, Shih-Fen; Lu, Wen-Shian; Huang, Sheau-Ling; Deng, Nai-Yu; Lue, Wen-Chyn; Hsieh, Ching-Lin

    2016-12-30

    The minimal detectable change (MDC) of the Personal and Social Performance scale (PSP) has not yet been investigated, limiting its utility in data interpretation. The purpose of this study was to determine the MDCs of the PSP administered by the same rater or different raters in individuals with schizophrenia. Participants with schizophrenia were recruited from two psychiatric community rehabilitation centers to complete the PSP assessments twice, 2 weeks apart, by the same rater or 2 different raters. MDC values were calculated from the coefficients of intra- and inter-rater reliability (i.e., intraclass correlation coefficients). Forty patients (mean age 36.9 years, SD 9.7) from one center participated in the intra-rater reliability study. Another 40 patients (mean age 44.3 years, SD 11.1) from the other center participated in the inter-rater study. The MDCs (MDC%) of the PSP were 10.7 (17.1%) for the same rater and 16.2 (24.1%) for different raters. The MDCs of the PSP appeared appropriate for clinical trials aiming to determine whether a real change in social functioning has occurred in people with schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Automated Topographic Change Detection via Dem Differencing at Large Scales Using The Arcticdem Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candela, S. G.; Howat, I.; Noh, M. J.; Porter, C. C.; Morin, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    In the last decade, high resolution satellite imagery has become an increasingly accessible tool for geoscientists to quantify changes in the Arctic land surface due to geophysical, ecological and anthropomorphic processes. However, the trade off between spatial coverage and spatial-temporal resolution has limited detailed, process-level change detection over large (i.e. continental) scales. The ArcticDEM project utilized over 300,000 Worldview image pairs to produce a nearly 100% coverage elevation model (above 60°N) offering the first polar, high spatial - high resolution (2-8m by region) dataset, often with multiple repeats in areas of particular interest to geo-scientists. A dataset of this size (nearly 250 TB) offers endless new avenues of scientific inquiry, but quickly becomes unmanageable computationally and logistically for the computing resources available to the average scientist. Here we present TopoDiff, a framework for a generalized. automated workflow that requires minimal input from the end user about a study site, and utilizes cloud computing resources to provide a temporally sorted and differenced dataset, ready for geostatistical analysis. This hands-off approach allows the end user to focus on the science, without having to manage thousands of files, or petabytes of data. At the same time, TopoDiff provides a consistent and accurate workflow for image sorting, selection, and co-registration enabling cross-comparisons between research projects.

  19. Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Gongjie; Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John; Li, Chongyin

    2018-04-01

    Inconsistent global/basin ocean heat content (OHC) changes were found in different ocean subsurface temperature analyses, especially in recent studies related to the slowdown in global surface temperature rise. This finding challenges the reliability of the ocean subsurface temperature analyses and motivates a more comprehensive inter-comparison between the analyses. Here we compare the OHC changes in three ocean analyses (Ishii, EN4 and IAP) to investigate the uncertainty in OHC in four major ocean basins from decadal to multi-decadal scales. First, all products show an increase of OHC since 1970 in each ocean basin revealing a robust warming, although the warming rates are not identical. The geographical patterns, the key modes and the vertical structure of OHC changes are consistent among the three datasets, implying that the main OHC variabilities can be robustly represented. However, large discrepancies are found in the percentage of basinal ocean heating related to the global ocean, with the largest differences in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, we find a large discrepancy of ocean heat storage in different layers, especially within 300-700 m in the Pacific and Southern Oceans. Furthermore, the near surface analysis of Ishii and IAP are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) products, but EN4 is found to underestimate the long-term trend. Compared with ocean heat storage derived from the atmospheric budget equation, all products show consistent seasonal cycles of OHC in the upper 1500 m especially during 2008 to 2012. Overall, our analyses further the understanding of the observed OHC variations, and we recommend a careful quantification of errors in the ocean analyses.

  20. Non-climatic factors and long-term, continental-scale changes in seasonally frozen ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.

    2012-03-01

    ). In their recent paper entitled 'An observational 71-year history of seasonally frozen ground changes in Eurasian high latitudes', Frauenfeld and Zhang (2011) provided detailed analysis of soil temperature data to assess 1930-2000 trends in seasonal freezing depth. The data were obtained from 387 Soviet non-permafrost meteorological stations. The authors performed systematic, quality-controlled, integrative analysis over the entire former Soviet Union domain. The long-term changes in depth of seasonal freezing were discussed in relation to such forcing variables as air temperature, degree days of freezing/thawing, snow depth and summer precipitation as well as modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The spatially average approach adopted for the study provides a generalized continental-scale trend. The study greatly improves, expands and extends previous 1956-90 analysis of the ground thermal regime over the Eurasian high latitudes (Frauenfeld et al 2004). Although the work of Frauenfeld and Zhang (2011) is the most comprehensive assessment of the continental-scale long-term trends in seasonal freezing available to date, more detailed analysis is needed to determine the effect of climate change on seasonally frozen ground. It should be noted that, in addition to the variables considered for analysis, other non-climatic factors affect the depth of freezing propagation. Unlike the surface, which is influenced by the climate directly, the ground even at shallow depth receives a climatic signal that is substantially modified by edaphic processes, contributing to highly localized thermal sensitivities of the ground to climatic forcing. Subsurface properties, soil moisture, and snow and vegetation covers influence the depth of freezing. Topography also plays an important role in establishing the ground thermal regime. It is an important determinant of the amount of heat received by the ground surface, affects the distribution of snow and vegetation, and influences the

  1. Scaling environmental change through the community-level: a trait-based response-and-effect framework for plants.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suding, K.N.; Lavorel, S.; Chapin III, F.S.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.; Diaz, S.; Garnier, E.; Goldberg, D.; Hooper, D.U.; Jackson, S.T.; Navas, M.-L.

    2008-01-01

    Predicting ecosystem responses to global change is a major challenge in ecology. A critical step in that challenge is to understand how changing environmental conditions influence processes across levels of ecological organization. While direct scaling from individual to ecosystem dynamics can lead

  2. Scaling environmental change through the community level: a trait-based response-and-effect framework for plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katharine N. Suding; Sandra Lavorel; F. Stuart Chapin; Johannes H.C. Cornelissen; Sandra Diaz; Eric Garnier; Deborah Goldberg; David U. Hooper; Stephen T. Jackson; Marie-Laure. Navas

    2008-01-01

    Predicting ecosystem responses to global change is a major challenge in ecology. A critical step in that challenge is to understand how changing environmental conditions influence processes across levels of ecological organization. While direct scaling from individual to ecosystem dynamics can lead to robust and mechanistic predictions, new approaches are needed to...

  3. Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Souza Soler, L.; Verburg, P.H.

    2010-01-01

    Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to

  4. Tree growth and climate in the Pacific Northwest, North America: a broad-scale analysis of changing growth environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitney L. Albright; David L. Peterson

    2013-01-01

    Climate change in the 21st century will affect tree growth in the Pacific Northwest region of North America, although complex climate–growth relationships make it difficult to identify how radial growth will respond across different species distributions. We used a novel method to examine potential growth responses to climate change at a broad geographical scale with a...

  5. A Lifelong Learning Scale for Research and Evaluation of Teaching and Curricular Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielkiewicz, Richard M.; Meuwissen, Alyssa S.

    2014-01-01

    A 16-item lifelong learning scale (LLS), appropriate for college students and others, was evaluated using a sample of 575 college students. The scale demonstrated excellent reliability and was correlated with college grade point average (GPA), agreeableness, conscientiousness, and intellect/imagination. Scores were higher for those who had studied…

  6. Resilience to climate change in a cross-scale tourism governance context: a combined quantitative-qualitative network analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Luthe

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Social systems in mountain regions are exposed to a number of disturbances, such as climate change. Calls for conceptual and practical approaches on how to address climate change have been taken up in the literature. The resilience concept as a comprehensive theory-driven approach to address climate change has only recently increased in importance. Limited research has been undertaken concerning tourism and resilience from a network governance point of view. We analyze tourism supply chain networks with regard to resilience to climate change at the municipal governance scale of three Alpine villages. We compare these with a planned destination management organization (DMO as a governance entity of the same three municipalities on the regional scale. Network measures are analyzed via a quantitative social network analysis (SNA focusing on resilience from a tourism governance point of view. Results indicate higher resilience of the regional DMO because of a more flexible and diverse governance structure, more centralized steering of fast collective action, and improved innovative capacity, because of higher modularity and better core-periphery integration. Interpretations of quantitative results have been qualitatively validated by interviews and a workshop. We conclude that adaptation of tourism-dependent municipalities to gradual climate change should be dealt with at a regional governance scale and adaptation to sudden changes at a municipal scale. Overall, DMO building at a regional scale may enhance the resilience of tourism destinations, if the municipalities are well integrated.

  7. Climatic changes on orbital and sub-orbital time scale recorded by the Guliya ice core in Tibetan Plateau

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姚檀栋; 徐柏青; 蒲健辰

    2001-01-01

    Based on ice core records in the Tibetan Plateau and Greenland, the features and possible causes of climatic changes on orbital and sub-orbital time scale were discussed. Orbital time scale climatic change recorded in ice core from the Tibetan Plateau is typically ahead of that from polar regions, which indicates that climatic change in the Tibetan Plateau might be earlier than polar regions. The solar radiation change is a major factor that dominates the climatic change on orbital time scale. However, climatic events on sub-orbital time scale occurred later in the Tibetan Plateau than in the Arctic Region, indicating a different mechanism. For example, the Younger Dryas and Heinrich events took place earlier in Greenland ice core record than in Guliya ice core record. It is reasonable to propose the hypothesis that these climatic events were affected possibly by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Therefore, ice sheet is critically important to climatic change on sub-orbital time scale in some ice ages.

  8. Personality Change in the Preclinical Phase of Alzheimer Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terracciano, Antonio; An, Yang; Sutin, Angelina R; Thambisetty, Madhav; Resnick, Susan M

    2017-12-01

    Changes in behavior and personality are 1 criterion for the diagnosis of dementia. It is unclear, however, whether such changes begin before the clinical onset of the disease. To determine whether increases in neuroticism, declines in conscientiousness, and changes in other personality traits occur before the onset of mild cognitive impairment or dementia. A cohort of 2046 community-dwelling older adults who volunteered to participate in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging were included. The study examined personality and clinical assessments obtained between 1980 and July 13, 2016, from participants with no cognitive impairment at first assessment who were followed up for as long as 36 years (mean [SD], 12.05 [9.54] years). The self-report personality scales were not considered during consensus diagnostic conferences. Change in self-rated personality traits assessed in the preclinical phase of Alzheimer disease and other dementias with the Revised NEO Personality Inventory, a 240-item questionnaire that assesses 30 facets, 6 for each of the 5 major dimensions: neuroticism, extraversion, openness, agreeableness, and conscientiousness. Of the 2046 participants, 931 [45.5%] were women; mean (SD) age at first assessment was 62.56 (14.63) years. During 24 569 person-years, mild cognitive impairment was diagnosed in 104 (5.1%) individuals, and all-cause dementia was diagnosed in 255 (12.5%) participants, including 194 (9.5%) with Alzheimer disease. Multilevel modeling that accounted for age, sex, race, and educational level found significant differences on the intercept of several traits: individuals who developed dementia scored higher on neuroticism (β = 2.83; 95% CI, 1.44 to 4.22; P Alzheimer disease groups (eg, neuroticism: β = 0.00; 95% CI, -0.08 to 0.08; P = .91; conscientiousness: β = -0.06; 95% CI, -0.16 to 0.04; P = .24). Slopes for individuals who developed mild cognitive impairment (eg, neuroticism: β = 0.00; 95% CI, -0

  9. Millennial-scale ocean current intensity changes off southernmost Chile and implications for Drake Passage throughflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamy, F.; Arz, H. W.; Kilian, R.; Baeza Urrea, O.; Caniupan, M.; Kissel, C.; Lange, C.

    2012-04-01

    The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) plays an essential role in the thermohaline circulation and global climate. Today a large volume of ACC water passes through the Drake Passage, a major geographic constrain for the circumpolar flow. Satellite tracked surface drifters have shown that Subantarctic Surface water of the ACC is transported northeastward across the Southeast Pacific from ~53°S/100°W towards the Chilean coast at ~40°S/75°W where surface waters bifurcate and flow northward into the Peru Chile Current (PCC) finally reaching the Eastern Tropical Pacific, and southwards into the Cape Horn Current (CHC). The CHC thus transports a significant amount of northern ACC water towards the Drake Passage and reaches surface current velocities of up to 35 cm/s within a narrow belt of ~100-150 km width off the coast. Also at deeper water levels, an accelerated southward flow occurs along the continental slope off southernmost South America that likewise substantially contributes to the Drake Passage throughflow. Here we report on high resolution geochemical and grain-size records from core MD07-3128 (53°S; 1032 m water depth) which has been retrieved from the upper continental slope off the Pacific entrance of the Magellan Strait beneath the CHC. Magnetic grain-sizes and grain-size distributions of the terrigenous fraction reveal large amplitude changes between the Holocene and the last glacial, as well as millennial-scale variability (most pronounced during Marine Isotope Stage). Magnetic grain-sizes, silt/clay ratios, fine sand contents, sortable silt contents, and sortable silt mean grain-sizes are substantially higher during the Holocene suggesting strongly enhanced current activity. The high absolute values imply flow speeds larger than 25 cm/s as currently observed in the CHC surface current. Furthermore, winnowing processes through bottom current activity and changes in the availability of terrigenous material (ice-sheet extension and related supply of

  10. Effects of tectonics and large scale climatic changes on the evolutionary history of Hyalomma ticks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sands, Arthur F; Apanaskevich, Dmitry A; Matthee, Sonja; Horak, Ivan G; Harrison, Alan; Karim, Shahid; Mohammad, Mohammad K; Mumcuoglu, Kosta Y; Rajakaruna, Rupika S; Santos-Silva, Maria M; Matthee, Conrad A

    2017-09-01

    -Diva, we also propose that the closure of the Tethyan seaway allowed for the genus to first enter Africa approximately 17.73Mya. In concert, our data supports the notion that tectonic events and large scale global changes in the environment contributed significantly to produce the rich species diversity currently found in the genus Hyalomma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Surface water quality in streams and rivers: introduction, scaling, and climate change: Chapter 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loperfido, John

    2013-01-01

    A variety of competing and complementary needs such as ecological health, human consumption, transportation, recreation, and economic value make management and protection of water resources in riverine environments essential. Thus, an understanding of the complex and interacting factors that dictate riverine water quality is essential in empowering stake-holders to make informed management decisions (see Chapter 1.15 for additional information on water resource management). Driven by natural and anthropogenic forcing factors, a variety of chemical, physical, and biological processes dictate riverine water quality, resulting in temporal and spatial patterns and cycling (see Chapter 1.2 for information describing how global change interacts with water resources). Furthermore, changes in climatic forcing factors may lead to long-term deviations in water quality outside the envelope of historical data. The goal of this chapter is to present fundamental concepts dictating the conditions of basic water quality parameters in rivers and streams (herein generally referred to as rivers unless discussing a specific system) in the context of temporal (diel (24 h) to decadal) longitudinal scaling. Understanding water quality scaling in rivers is imperative as water is continually reused and recycled (see also Chapters 3.1 and 3.15); upstream discharges from anthropogenic sources are incorporated into bulk riverine water quality that is used by downstream consumers. Water quality parameters reviewed here include temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), and suspended sediment and were selected given the abundance of data available for these parameters due to recent advances in water quality sensor technology (see Chapter 4.13 for use of hydrologic data in watershed management). General equations describing reactions affecting water temperature, pH, DO, and suspended sediment are included to convey the complexity of how simultaneously occurring reactions can affect water quality

  12. Association of metabolic syndrome and change in Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leehey, Maureen; Luo, Sheng; Sharma, Saloni; Wills, Anne-Marie A; Bainbridge, Jacquelyn L; Wong, Pei Shieen; Simon, David K; Schneider, Jay; Zhang, Yunxi; Pérez, Adriana; Dhall, Rohit; Christine, Chadwick W; Singer, Carlos; Cambi, Franca; Boyd, James T

    2017-10-24

    To explore the association between metabolic syndrome and the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) scores and, secondarily, the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). This is a secondary analysis of data from 1,022 of 1,741 participants of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Exploratory Clinical Trials in Parkinson Disease Long-Term Study 1, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of creatine. Participants were categorized as having or not having metabolic syndrome on the basis of modified criteria from the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III. Those who had the same metabolic syndrome status at consecutive annual visits were included. The change in UPDRS and SDMT scores from randomization to 3 years was compared in participants with and without metabolic syndrome. Participants with metabolic syndrome (n = 396) compared to those without (n = 626) were older (mean [SD] 63.9 [8.1] vs 59.9 [9.4] years; p metabolic syndrome experienced an additional 0.6- (0.2) unit annual increase in total UPDRS ( p = 0.02) and 0.5- (0.2) unit increase in motor UPDRS ( p = 0.01) scores compared with participants without metabolic syndrome. There was no difference in the change in SDMT scores. Persons with Parkinson disease meeting modified criteria for metabolic syndrome experienced a greater increase in total UPDRS scores over time, mainly as a result of increases in motor scores, compared to those who did not. Further studies are needed to confirm this finding. NCT00449865. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  13. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU WenBin; YANG Peng; MENG ChaoYing; SHIBASAKI Ryosuke; ZHOU QingBo; TANG HuaJun; SHI Yun

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is presented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions,while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for addressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally,the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline.The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  14. Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Ruti, Paolo Michele; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

    2014-04-15

    The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests.

  15. Scaling Mode Shapes in Output-Only Structure by a Mass-Change-Based Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangliang Yu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A mass-change-based method based on output-only data for the rescaling of mode shapes in operational modal analysis (OMA is introduced. The mass distribution matrix, which is defined as a diagonal matrix whose diagonal elements represent the ratios among the diagonal elements of the mass matrix, is calculated using the unscaled mode shapes. Based on the theory of null space, the mass distribution vector or mass distribution matrix is obtained. A small mass with calibrated weight is added to a certain location of the structure, and then the mass distribution vector of the modified structure is estimated. The mass matrix is identified according to the difference of the mass distribution vectors between the original and modified structures. Additionally, the universal set of modes is unnecessary when calculating the mass distribution matrix, indicating that modal truncation is allowed in the proposed method. The mass-scaled mode shapes estimated in OMA according to the proposed method are compared with those obtained by experimental modal analysis. A simulation is employed to validate the feasibility of the method. Finally, the method is tested on output-only data from an experiment on a five-storey structure, and the results confirm the effectiveness of the method.

  16. Orbital-scale denitrification changes in the Eastern Arabian Sea during the last 800 kyrs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji-Eun; Khim, Boo-Keun; Ikehara, Minoru; Lee, Jongmin

    2018-05-04

    Denitrification in the Arabian Sea is closely related to the monsoon-induced upwelling and subsequent phytoplankton production in the surface water. The δ 15 N values of bulk sediments collected at Site U1456 of the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 355 reveal the orbital-scale denitrification history in response to the Indian Monsoon. Age reconstruction based on the correlation of planktonic foraminifera (Globigerinoides ruber) δ 18 O values with the LR04 stack together with the shipboard biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic data assigns the study interval to be 1.2 Ma. Comparison of δ 15 N values during the last 800 kyrs between Site U1456 (Eastern Arabian Sea) and Site 722B (Western Arabian Sea) showed that δ 15 N values were high during interglacial periods, indicating intensified denitrification, while the opposite was observed during glacial periods. Taking 6‰ as the empirical threshold of denitrification, the Eastern Arabian Sea has experienced a persistent oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) to maintain strong denitrification whereas the Western Arabian Sea has undergone OMZ breakdown during some glacial periods. The results of this study also suggests that five principal oceanographic conditions were changed in response to the Indian Monsoon following the interglacial and glacial cycles, which controls the degree of denitrification in the Arabian Sea.

  17. [Interpreting change scores of the Behavioural Rating Scale for Geriatric Inpatients (GIP)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diesfeldt, H F A

    2013-09-01

    The Behavioural Rating Scale for Geriatric Inpatients (GIP) consists of fourteen, Rasch modelled subscales, each measuring different aspects of behavioural, cognitive and affective disturbances in elderly patients. Four additional measures are derived from the GIP: care dependency, apathy, cognition and affect. The objective of the study was to determine the reproducibility of the 18 measures. A convenience sample of 56 patients in psychogeriatric day care was assessed twice by the same observer (a professional caregiver). The median time interval between rating occasions was 45 days (interquartile range 34-58 days). Reproducibility was determined by calculating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC agreement) for test-retest reliability. The minimal detectable difference (MDD) was calculated based on the standard error of measurement (SEM agreement). Test-retest reliability expressed by the ICCs varied from 0.57 (incoherent behaviour) to 0.93 (anxious behaviour). Standard errors of measurement varied from 0.28 (anxious behaviour) to 1.63 (care dependency). The results show how the GIP can be applied when interpreting individual change in psychogeriatric day care participants.

  18. The Climate-G testbed: towards a large scale data sharing environment for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloisio, G.; Fiore, S.; Denvil, S.; Petitdidier, M.; Fox, P.; Schwichtenberg, H.; Blower, J.; Barbera, R.

    2009-04-01

    The Climate-G testbed provides an experimental large scale data environment for climate change addressing challenging data and metadata management issues. The main scope of Climate-G is to allow scientists to carry out geographical and cross-institutional climate data discovery, access, visualization and sharing. Climate-G is a multidisciplinary collaboration involving both climate and computer scientists and it currently involves several partners such as: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Fraunhofer Institut für Algorithmen und Wissenschaftliches Rechnen (SCAI), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), University of Reading, University of Catania and University of Salento. To perform distributed metadata search and discovery, we adopted a CMCC metadata solution (which provides a high level of scalability, transparency, fault tolerance and autonomy) leveraging both on P2P and grid technologies (GRelC Data Access and Integration Service). Moreover, data are available through OPeNDAP/THREDDS services, Live Access Server as well as the OGC compliant Web Map Service and they can be downloaded, visualized, accessed into the proposed environment through the Climate-G Data Distribution Centre (DDC), the web gateway to the Climate-G digital library. The DDC is a data-grid portal allowing users to easily, securely and transparently perform search/discovery, metadata management, data access, data visualization, etc. Godiva2 (integrated into the DDC) displays 2D maps (and animations) and also exports maps for display on the Google Earth virtual globe. Presently, Climate-G publishes (through the DDC) about 2TB of data related to the ENSEMBLES project (also including distributed replicas of data) as well as to the IPCC AR4. The main results of the proposed work are: wide data access/sharing environment for climate change; P2P/grid metadata approach; production-level Climate-G DDC; high quality tools for

  19. Temporal changes in vegetation of a virgin beech woodland remnant: stand-scale stability with intensive fine-scale dynamics governed by stand dynamic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tibor Standovár

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this resurvey study is to check if herbaceous vegetation on the forest floor exhibits overall stability at the stand-scale in spite of intensive dynamics at the scale of individual plots and stand dynamic events (driven by natural fine scale canopy gap dynamics. In 1996, we sampled a 1.5 ha patch using 0.25 m² plots placed along a 5 m × 5 m grid in the best remnant of central European montane beech woods in Hungary. All species in the herbaceous layer and their cover estimates were recorded. Five patches representing different stand developmental situations (SDS were selected for resurvey. In 2013, 306 plots were resurveyed by using blocks of four 0.25 m² plots to test the effects of imperfect relocation. We found very intensive fine-scale dynamics in the herbaceous layer with high species turnover and sharp changes in ground layer cover at the local-scale (< 1 m2. A decrease in species richness and herbaceous layer cover, as well as high species turnover, characterized the closing gaps. Colonization events and increasing species richness and herbaceous layer cover prevailed in the two newly created gaps. A pronounced decrease in the total cover, but low species turnover and survival of the majority of the closed forest specialists was detected by the resurvey at the stand-scale. The test aiming at assessing the effect of relocation showed a higher time effect than the effect of imprecise relocation. The very intensive fine-scale dynamics of the studied beech forest are profoundly determined by natural stand dynamics. Extinction and colonisation episodes even out at the stand-scale, implying an overall compositional stability of the herbaceous vegetation at the given spatial and temporal scale. We argue that fine-scale gap dynamics, driven by natural processes or applied as a management method, can warrant the survival of many closed forest specialist species in the long-run. Nomenclature: Flora Europaea (Tutin et al. 2010 for

  20. Object-Based Change Detection in Urban Areas: The Effects of Segmentation Strategy, Scale, and Feature Space on Unsupervised Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Ma

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Object-based change detection (OBCD has recently been receiving increasing attention as a result of rapid improvements in the resolution of remote sensing data. However, some OBCD issues relating to the segmentation of high-resolution images remain to be explored. For example, segmentation units derived using different segmentation strategies, segmentation scales, feature space, and change detection methods have rarely been assessed. In this study, we have tested four common unsupervised change detection methods using different segmentation strategies and a series of segmentation scale parameters on two WorldView-2 images of urban areas. We have also evaluated the effect of adding extra textural and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI information instead of using only spectral information. Our results indicated that change detection methods performed better at a medium scale than at a fine scale where close to the pixel size. Multivariate Alteration Detection (MAD always outperformed the other methods tested, at the same confidence level. The overall accuracy appeared to benefit from using a two-date segmentation strategy rather than single-date segmentation. Adding textural and NDVI information appeared to reduce detection accuracy, but the magnitude of this reduction was not consistent across the different unsupervised methods and segmentation strategies. We conclude that a two-date segmentation strategy is useful for change detection in high-resolution imagery, but that the optimization of thresholds is critical for unsupervised change detection methods. Advanced methods need be explored that can take advantage of additional textural or other parameters.

  1. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  2. Association between changes on the Negative Symptom Assessment scale (NSA-16) and measures of functional outcome in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velligan, Dawn I; Alphs, Larry; Lancaster, Scott; Morlock, Robert; Mintz, Jim

    2009-09-30

    We examined whether changes in negative symptoms, as measured by scores on the 16-item Negative Symptom Assessment scale (NSA-16), were associated with changes in functional outcome. A group of 125 stable outpatients with schizophrenia were assessed at baseline and at 6 months using the NSA-16, the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, and multiple measures of functional outcome. Baseline adjusted regression coefficients indicated moderate correlations between negative symptoms and functional outcomes when baseline values of both variables were controlled. Results were nearly identical when we controlled for positive symptoms. Cross-lag panel correlations and Structural Equation Modeling were used to examine whether changes in negative symptoms drove changes in functional outcomes over time. Results indicated that negative symptoms drove the changes in the Social and Occupational Functioning Scale (SOFAS) rather than the reverse. Measures of Quality of Life and measures of negative symptoms may be assessing overlapping constructs or changes in both may be driven by a third variable. Negative symptoms were unrelated over time to scores on a performance-based measure of functional capacity. This study indicates that the relationship between negative symptom change and the change in functional outcomes is complex, and points to potential issues in selection of assessments.

  3. MOCC: A Fast and Robust Correlation-Based Method for Interest Point Matching under Large Scale Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Feng; Huang, Qingming; Wang, Hao; Gao, Wen

    2010-12-01

    Similarity measures based on correlation have been used extensively for matching tasks. However, traditional correlation-based image matching methods are sensitive to rotation and scale changes. This paper presents a fast correlation-based method for matching two images with large rotation and significant scale changes. Multiscale oriented corner correlation (MOCC) is used to evaluate the degree of similarity between the feature points. The method is rotation invariant and capable of matching image pairs with scale changes up to a factor of 7. Moreover, MOCC is much faster in comparison with the state-of-the-art matching methods. Experimental results on real images show the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

  4. MOCC: A Fast and Robust Correlation-Based Method for Interest Point Matching under Large Scale Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Hao

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Similarity measures based on correlation have been used extensively for matching tasks. However, traditional correlation-based image matching methods are sensitive to rotation and scale changes. This paper presents a fast correlation-based method for matching two images with large rotation and significant scale changes. Multiscale oriented corner correlation (MOCC is used to evaluate the degree of similarity between the feature points. The method is rotation invariant and capable of matching image pairs with scale changes up to a factor of 7. Moreover, MOCC is much faster in comparison with the state-of-the-art matching methods. Experimental results on real images show the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

  5. Large-scale changes in network interactions as a physiological signature of spatial neglect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldassarre, Antonello; Ramsey, Lenny; Hacker, Carl L; Callejas, Alicia; Astafiev, Serguei V; Metcalf, Nicholas V; Zinn, Kristi; Rengachary, Jennifer; Snyder, Abraham Z; Carter, Alex R; Shulman, Gordon L; Corbetta, Maurizio

    2014-12-01

    networks in the right hemisphere; and (iii) increased intrahemispheric connectivity with the basal ganglia. These patterns of functional connectivity:behaviour correlations were stronger in patients with right- as compared to left-hemisphere damage and were independent of lesion volume. Our findings identify large-scale changes in resting state network interactions that are a physiological signature of spatial neglect and may relate to its right hemisphere lateralization. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. The Relationship between Obsessive Compulsive Personality and Obsessive Compulsive Disorder Treatment Outcomes: Predictive Utility and Clinically Significant Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadri, Shalane K; McEvoy, Peter M; Egan, Sarah J; Kane, Robert T; Rees, Clare S; Anderson, Rebecca A

    2017-09-01

    The evidence regarding whether co-morbid obsessive compulsive personality disorder (OCPD) is associated with treatment outcomes in obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) is mixed, with some research indicating that OCPD is associated with poorer response, and some showing that it is associated with improved response. We sought to explore the role of OCPD diagnosis and the personality domain of conscientiousness on treatment outcomes for exposure and response prevention for OCD. The impact of co-morbid OCPD and conscientiousness on treatment outcomes was examined in a clinical sample of 46 participants with OCD. OCPD diagnosis and scores on conscientiousness were not associated with poorer post-treatment OCD severity, as indexed by Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (YBOCS) scores, although the relative sample size of OCPD was small and thus generalizability is limited. This study found no evidence that OCPD or conscientiousness were associated with treatment outcomes for OCD. Further research with larger clinical samples is required.

  7. Driving forces behind the stagnancy of China's energy-related CO2 emissions from 1996 to 1999: the relative importance of structural change, intensity change and scale change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Libo Wu; Kaneko, S.; Matsuoka, S.

    2005-01-01

    It is noteworthy that income elasticity of energy consumption in China shifted from positive to negative after 1996, accompanied by an unprecedented decline in energy-related CO 2 emissions. This paper therefore investigate the evolution of energy-related CO 2 emissions in China from 1985 to 1999 and the underlying driving forces, using the newly proposed three-level 'perfect decomposition' method and provincially aggregated data. The province-based estimates and analyses reveal a 'sudden stagnancy' of energy consumption, supply and energy-related CO 2 emissions in China from 1996 to 1999. The speed of a decrease in energy intensity and a slowdown in the growth of average labor productivity of industrial enterprises may have been the dominant contributors to this 'stagnancy'. The findings of this paper point to the highest rate of deterioration of state-owned enterprises in early 1996, the industrial restructuring caused by changes in ownership, the shutdown of small-scale power plants, and the introduction of policies to improve energy efficiency as probable factors. Taking into account the characteristics of those key driving forces, we characterize China's decline of energy-related CO 2 emissions as a short-term fluctuation and incline to the likelihood that China will resume an increasing trend from a lower starting point in the near future. (author)

  8. Superimposing various biophysical and social scales in a rapidly changing rural area (SW Niger)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Christian; Massuel, Sylvain; Favreau, Guillaume; Cappelaere, Bernard; Leblanc, Marc; Bachir, Salifou; Ousmane, Boureïma

    2014-05-01

    transboundary aquifer that extends far beyond the study area, over about 150 000 km2. It is also heterogeneous. Like surface flows, but at a different scale, groundwater flows are marked by a strong endorheism. For example the Dantiandou closed piezometric depression extends over about approximately 5000 km2. These natural closed depressions are explained only by evapotranspiration uptake, weak in absolute terms (a few mm.a-1) but with a very high impact on hydrodynamics because of poor permeability and porosity. Both density of observations and hydraulic continuity of the CT3 aquifer give a fine idea of groundwater changes in the whole area. Human activities, continuously adapting in this poor rural area, add another complexity to the hydrological diversity in surface and ground water. The replacement of the natural vegetation with millet fields and fallow increased the surface runoff, and consequently water accumulation in temporary pools and then CT3 recharge. In the SE part of the study area, the water table has risen up to outcropping in the lowest valley bottoms. These new permanent ponds reflect groundwater while temporary ponds still reflect surface dynamics. This new component of the hydrological landscape induces several consequences, in physical and human dimensions. Evaporation strongly affects the permanent water and increases its salinity while the natural mineralization of groundwater is very low. The easier access to water resources allows a significant development of local gardening, which modifies the social functioning of villages (e.g. land rights between villages and within a village, diversification of crops and sources of income, new sales channels). Different physically based models (for surface and ground water) were built, with a significant discrepancy between their respective quantification of water flows at the region scale. Extrapolation of surface fluxes from the few instrumented catchments to a much larger mosaic of non-instrumented catchments is

  9. Global change impact on water resources at the regional scale - a reflection on participatory modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthel, Roland; Büttner, Hannah; Nickel, Darla; Seidl, Roman

    2015-04-01

    discussion we therefore focus on the following three questions: • Can a stakeholder dialogue be successfully used to support the development of new, complex modelling systems, in particular at the regional scale? • What is the right timing for stakeholder interaction in the case of unclear problem definition - i.e. global (climate) change impact on regions where climate is not (yet) a threat to water or land use related demands and activities? • To what degree can scientists be motivated to carry out participatory research at all? We conclude that the PM process in GD was only partly successful because the project set overambitious goals, including the application of fundamentally new approaches to interdisciplinary science, the use of new modelling technologies, the focus upon and evaluation of potential and therefore characteristically uncertain future problems, including stakeholder demands, and the development of a ready-to-use, user-friendly tool. Furthermore, GD also showed that an externally and professionally moderated stakeholder dialogue is an absolute necessity to achieve successful participation of stakeholders in model development. The modelers themselves neither had the time, the skills and the ambitions to do this. Furthermore, there is a lack of incentives for scientists, particularly natural scientists, to commit to PM activities. Given the fact that the outcomes of PM are supposed to be relevant for societal decision making, this issue needs further attention.

  10. Determining the size of a complete disturbance landscape: multi-scale, continental analysis of forest change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian Buma; Jennifer K Costanza; Kurt Riitters

    2017-01-01

    The scale of investigation for disturbanceinfluenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact...

  11. 'Glocal' politics of scale on environmental issues: Climate change, water and forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gupta, J.; Padt, F.; Opdam, P.; Polman, N.; Termeer, C.

    2014-01-01

    The lack of objective ability to define the level of a problem leads to the politics of scale. A multidisciplinary, glocal approach helps scholars and policymakers to transcend such territorial traps and understand how scale is used as a political tool by social actors. This chapter explains how a

  12. ECMOR 4. 4th European conference on the mathematics of oil recovery. Topic C: Scale change procedures. Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-01-01

    The report with collected proceedings from a conference, deals with mathematics of oil recovery with the focus on scale change procedures. Topics of proceedings are as follow: Upscaling permeability, mathematics of renormalization; a new method for the scale up of displacement processes in heterogeneous reservoirs; The scaleup of two-phase flow using permeability tensors; upscaling of permeability based on wavelet representation; preferential flow-paths detection for heterogeneous reservoirs using a new renormalization technique; averaged heterogeneous porous media by minimization of the error on the flow rate; change of scale for the full permeability tensor on a tetrahedron grid; effective relative permeabilities and capillary pressure for 1D heterogeneous media; practical and operational method for the calculation of effective dispersion coefficients in heterogeneous porous media. Nine papers are prepared. 144 refs., 71 figs., 10 tabs.

  13. A seesaw in Mediterranean precipitation during the Roman Period linked to millennial-scale changes in the North Atlantic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dermody, B.; Boer, H.J. de; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Weber, S.L.; Wassen, M.J.; Dekker, S.C.

    2012-01-01

    We present a reconstruction of the change in climatic humidity around the Mediterranean between 3000– 1000 yr BP. Using a range of proxy archives and model simulations we demonstrate that climate during this period was typified by a millennial-scale seesaw in climatic humidity between Spain and

  14. The sea-level budget along the Northwest Atlantic coast : GIA, mass changes, and large-scale ocean dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frederikse, T.; Simon, K.M.; Katsman, C.A.; Riva, R.E.M.

    2017-01-01

    Sea-level rise and decadal variability along the northwestern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean are studied in a self-consistent framework that takes into account the effects of solid-earth deformation and geoid changes due to large-scale mass redistribution processes. Observations of sea and

  15. Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige; Refsgaard, J.C.; Sonnenborg, T.O.

    2013-01-01

    An ensemble of 11 regional climate model (RCM) projections are analysed for Denmark from a hydrological modelling inputs perspective. Two bias correction approaches are applied: a relatively simple monthly delta change (DC) method and a more complex daily distribution-based scaling (DBS) method...

  16. Calculating Clinically Significant Change: Applications of the Clinical Global Impressions (CGI) Scale to Evaluate Client Outcomes in Private Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Peter James

    2010-01-01

    The Clinical Global Impressions (CGI) scale is a therapist-rated measure of client outcome that has been widely used within the research literature. The current study aimed to develop reliable and clinically significant change indices for the CGI, and to demonstrate its application in private psychological practice. Following the guidelines…

  17. Selecting quantitative water management measures at the river basin scale in a global change context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Caballero, Yvan; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2013-04-01

    One of the main challenges in the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in the European Union is the definition of programme of measures to reach the good status of the European water bodies. In areas where water scarcity is an issue, one of these challenges is the selection of water conservation and capacity expansion measures to ensure minimum environmental in-stream flow requirements. At the same time, the WFD calls for the use of economic analysis to identify the most cost-effective combination of measures at the river basin scale to achieve its objective. With this respect, hydro-economic river basin models, by integrating economics, environmental and hydrological aspects at the river basin scale in a consistent framework, represent a promising approach. This article presents a least-cost river basin optimization model (LCRBOM) that selects the combination of quantitative water management measures to meet environmental flows for future scenarios of agricultural and urban demand taken into account the impact of the climate change. The model has been implemented in a case study on a Mediterranean basin in the south of France, the Orb River basin. The water basin has been identified as in need for quantitative water management measures in order to reach the good status of its water bodies. The LCRBOM has been developed using GAMS, applying Mixed Integer Linear Programming. It is run to select the set of measures that minimizes the total annualized cost of the applied measures, while meeting the demands and minimum in-stream flow constraints. For the economic analysis, the programme of measures is composed of water conservation measures on agricultural and urban water demands. It compares them with measures mobilizing new water resources coming from groundwater, inter-basin transfers and improvement in reservoir operating rules. The total annual cost of each measure is calculated for each demand unit considering operation, maintenance and

  18. Bias correction method for climate change impact assessment at a basin scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyunt, C.; Jaranilla-sanchez, P. A.; Yamamoto, A.; Nemoto, T.; Kitsuregawa, M.; Koike, T.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact studies are mainly based on the general circulation models GCM and these studies play an important role to define suitable adaptation strategies for resilient environment in a basin scale management. For this purpose, this study summarized how to select appropriate GCM to decrease the certain uncertainty amount in analysis. This was applied to the Pampanga, Angat and Kaliwa rivers in Luzon Island, the main island of Philippine and these three river basins play important roles in irrigation water supply, municipal water source for Metro Manila. According to the GCM scores of both seasonal evolution of Asia summer monsoon and spatial correlation and root mean squared error of atmospheric variables over the region, finally six GCM is chosen. Next, we develop a complete, efficient and comprehensive statistical bias correction scheme covering extremes events, normal rainfall and frequency of dry period. Due to the coarse resolution and parameterization scheme of GCM, extreme rainfall underestimation, too many rain days with low intensity and poor representation of local seasonality have been known as bias of GCM. Extreme rainfall has unusual characteristics and it should be focused specifically. Estimated maximum extreme rainfall is crucial for planning and design of infrastructures in river basin. Developing countries have limited technical, financial and management resources for implementing adaptation measures and they need detailed information of drought and flood for near future. Traditionally, the analysis of extreme has been examined using annual maximum series (AMS) adjusted to a Gumbel or Lognormal distribution. The drawback is the loss of the second, third etc, largest rainfall. Another approach is partial duration series (PDS) constructed using the values above a selected threshold and permit more than one event per year. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) has been used to model PDS and it is the series of excess over a threshold

  19. Scaling-Stimulated Salivary Antioxidant Changes and Oral-Health Behavior in an Evaluation of Periodontal Treatment Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Po-Sheng Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Our goal was to investigate associations among scaling-stimulated changes in salivary antioxidants, oral-health-related behaviors and attitudes, and periodontal treatment outcomes. Materials and Methods. Thirty periodontitis patients with at least 6 pockets with pocket depths of >5 mm and more than 16 functional teeth were enrolled in the study. Patients were divided into three groups: an abandoned group (AB group, a nonprogress outcome group (NP group, and an effective treatment group (ET group. Nonstimulated saliva was collected before and after scaling were received to determine superoxide dismutase (SOD and the total antioxidant capacity (TAOC. Results. Salivary SOD following scaling significantly increased from 83.09 to 194.30 U/g protein in patients who had irregular dental visit patterns (<1 visit per year. After scaling, the TAOC was significantly higher in patients who had regular dental visits than in patients who had irregular dental visits (3.52 versus 0.70 mmole/g protein, P<0.01. The scaling-stimulated increase in SOD was related to a higher severity of periodontitis in the NP group, while the scaling-stimulated increase in the TAOC was inversely related to the severity of periodontitis in the AB group. Conclusions. These results demonstrate the importance of scaling-stimulated salivary antioxidants as prognostic biomarkers of periodontal treatment.

  20. Landscape-and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

    2016-01-01

    Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape- scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape...

  1. Behaviour change counselling--how do I know if I am doing it well? The development of the Behaviour Change Counselling Scale (BCCS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallis, Michael

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this article is to operationalize behaviour change counselling skills (motivation enhancement, behaviour modification, emotion management) that facilitate self-management support activities and evaluate the psychometric properties of an expert rater scale, the Behaviour Change Counselling Scale (BCCS). Twenty-one healthcare providers with varying levels of behaviour change counselling training interviewed a simulated patient. Videotapes were independently rated by 3 experts on 2 occasions over 6 months. Data on item/subscale characteristics, interrater and test-retest reliability, preliminary data on construct reliability, were reported. All items of the BCCS performed well with the exception of 3 that were dropped due to infrequent endorsement. Most subscales showed strong psychometric properties. Interrater and test-retest reliability coefficients were uniformly high. Competency scores improved significantly from pre- to posttraining. Behaviour change counselling skills to guide lifestyle interventions can be operationalized and assessed in a reliable and valid manner. The BCCS can be used to guide clinical training in lifestyle counselling by operationalizing the component skills and providing feedback on skill achieved. Further research is needed to establish cut scores for competency and scale construct and criterion validity. Copyright © 2013 Canadian Diabetes Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blunier, T; Brook, E J

    2001-01-01

    A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in A....... This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales....

  3. Development of a Facebook Addiction Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreassen, Cecilie Schou; Torsheim, Torbjørn; Brunborg, Geir Scott; Pallesen, Ståle

    2012-04-01

    The Bergen Facebook Addiction Scale (BFAS), initially a pool of 18 items, three reflecting each of the six core elements of addiction (salience, mood modification, tolerance, withdrawal, conflict, and relapse), was constructed and administered to 423 students together with several other standardized self-report scales (Addictive Tendencies Scale, Online Sociability Scale, Facebook Attitude Scale, NEO-FFI, BIS/BAS scales, and Sleep questions). That item within each of the six addiction elements with the highest corrected item-total correlation was retained in the final scale. The factor structure of the scale was good (RMSEA = .046, CFI = .99) and coefficient alpha was .83. The 3-week test-retest reliability coefficient was .82. The scores converged with scores for other scales of Facebook activity. Also, they were positively related to Neuroticism and Extraversion, and negatively related to Conscientiousness. High scores on the new scale were associated with delayed bedtimes and rising times.

  4. Using a personal watercraft for monitoring bathymetric changes at storm scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Son, S.T.J.; Lindenbergh, R.C.; De Schipper, M.A.; De Vries, S.; Duijnmayer, K.

    2009-01-01

    Monitoring and understanding coastal processes is important for the Netherlands since the most densely populated areas are situated directly behind the coastal defense. Traditionally, bathymetric changes are monitored at annual intervals, although nowadays it is understood that most dramatic changes

  5. Sea-level changes on multiple spatial scales: estimates and contributing processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frederikse, T.

    2018-01-01

    Being one of the major consequences of anthropogenic climate change, sea level rise forms a threat for many coastal areas and their inhabitants. Because all processes that cause sea-level changes have a spatially-varying fingerprint, local sea-level changes deviate substantially from the global

  6. Age-related changes in the plasticity and toughness of human cortical bone at multiple length-scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zimmermann, Elizabeth A.; Schaible, Eric; Bale, Hrishikesh; Barth, Holly D.; Tang, Simon Y.; Reichert, Peter; Busse, Bjoern; Alliston, Tamara; Ager III, Joel W.; Ritchie, Robert O.

    2011-08-10

    The structure of human cortical bone evolves over multiple length-scales from its basic constituents of collagen and hydroxyapatite at the nanoscale to osteonal structures at nearmillimeter dimensions, which all provide the basis for its mechanical properties. To resist fracture, bone’s toughness is derived intrinsically through plasticity (e.g., fibrillar sliding) at structural-scales typically below a micron and extrinsically (i.e., during crack growth) through mechanisms (e.g., crack deflection/bridging) generated at larger structural-scales. Biological factors such as aging lead to a markedly increased fracture risk, which is often associated with an age-related loss in bone mass (bone quantity). However, we find that age-related structural changes can significantly degrade the fracture resistance (bone quality) over multiple lengthscales. Using in situ small-/wide-angle x-ray scattering/diffraction to characterize sub-micron structural changes and synchrotron x-ray computed tomography and in situ fracture-toughness measurements in the scanning electron microscope to characterize effects at micron-scales, we show how these age-related structural changes at differing size-scales degrade both the intrinsic and extrinsic toughness of bone. Specifically, we attribute the loss in toughness to increased non-enzymatic collagen cross-linking which suppresses plasticity at nanoscale dimensions and to an increased osteonal density which limits the potency of crack-bridging mechanisms at micron-scales. The link between these processes is that the increased stiffness of the cross-linked collagen requires energy to be absorbed by “plastic” deformation at higher structural levels, which occurs by the process of microcracking.

  7. Recent Regional Climate State and Change - Derived through Downscaling Homogeneous Large-scale Components of Re-analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Storch, H.; Klehmet, K.; Geyer, B.; Li, D.; Schubert-Frisius, M.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

    2015-12-01

    Global re-analyses suffer from inhomogeneities, as they process data from networks under development. However, the large-scale component of such re-analyses is mostly homogeneous; additional observational data add in most cases to a better description of regional details and less so on large-scale states. Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complementing the large-scale state of the re-analyses with regional detail - wherever the condition of homogeneity of the large-scales is fulfilled. Technically this can be done by using a regional climate model, or a global climate model, which is constrained on the large scale by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional risks - in particular marine risks - was identified. While the data density in Europe is considerably better than in most other regions of the world, even here insufficient spatial and temporal coverage is limiting risk assessments. Therefore, downscaled data-sets are frequently used by off-shore industries. We have run this system also in regions with reduced or absent data coverage, such as the Lena catchment in Siberia, in the Yellow Sea/Bo Hai region in East Asia, in Namibia and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Also a global (large scale constrained) simulation has been. It turns out that spatially detailed reconstruction of the state and change of climate in the three to six decades is doable for any region of the world.The different data sets are archived and may freely by used for scientific purposes. Of course, before application, a careful analysis of the quality for the intended application is needed, as sometimes unexpected changes in the quality of the description of large-scale driving states prevail.

  8. Temporal stability and rates of post-depositional change in geochemical signatures of brown trout Salmo trutta scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, D; Shephard, S; Kelly, F L

    2016-09-01

    This study investigates temporal stability in the scale microchemistry of brown trout Salmo trutta in feeder streams of a large heterogeneous lake catchment and rates of change after migration into the lake. Laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry was used to quantify the elemental concentrations of Na, Mg, Mn, Cu, Zn, Ba and Sr in archived (1997-2002) scales of juvenile S. trutta collected from six major feeder streams of Lough Mask, County Mayo, Ireland. Water-element Ca ratios within these streams were determined for the fish sampling period and for a later period (2013-2015). Salmo trutta scale Sr and Ba concentrations were significantly (P < 0·05) correlated with stream water sample Sr:Ca and Ba:Ca ratios respectively from both periods, indicating multi-annual stability in scale and water-elemental signatures. Discriminant analysis of scale chemistries correctly classified 91% of sampled juvenile S. trutta to their stream of origin using a cross-validated classification model. This model was used to test whether assumed post-depositional change in scale element concentrations reduced correct natal stream classification of S. trutta in successive years after migration into Lough Mask. Fish residing in the lake for 1-3 years could be reliably classified to their most likely natal stream, but the probability of correct classification diminished strongly with longer lake residence. Use of scale chemistry to identify natal streams of lake S. trutta should focus on recent migrants, but may not require contemporary water chemistry data. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  9. Volume changes at macro- and nano-scale in epoxy resins studied by PALS and PVT experimental techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somoza, A. [IFIMAT-UNCentro, Pinto 399, B7000GHG Tandil (Argentina) and CICPBA, Pinto 399, B7000GHG Tandil (Argentina)]. E-mail: asomoza@exa.unicen.edu.ar; Salgueiro, W. [IFIMAT-UNCentro, Pinto 399, B7000GHG Tandil (Argentina); Goyanes, S. [LPMPyMC, Depto. de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellon I, 1428 Buenos Aires (Argentina); Ramos, J. [Materials and Technology Group, Departamento de Ingenieria Quimica y M. Ambiente, Escuela University Politecnica, Universidad Pais Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea, Pz. Europa 1, 20018 Donostia/San Sebastian (Spain); Mondragon, I. [Materials and Technology Group, Departamento de Ingenieria Quimica y M. Ambiente, Escuela University Politecnica, Universidad Pais Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea, Pz. Europa 1, 20018 Donostia/San Sebastian (Spain)

    2007-02-15

    A systematic study on changes in the volumes at macro- and nano-scale in epoxy systems cured with selected aminic hardeners at different pre-cure temperatures is presented. Free- and macroscopic specific-volumes were measured by PALS and pressure-volume-temperature techniques, respectively. An analysis of the relation existing between macro- and nano-scales of the thermosetting networks developed by the different chemical structures is shown. The result obtained indicates that the structure of the hardeners governs the packing of the molecular chains of the epoxy network.

  10. Is there a correlation between physicians' clinical impressions and patients' perceptions of change? Use of the Perceived Change Scale with inpatients with mental disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Pavan

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Assessment of the results of treatment for mental disorders becomes more complete when the patient's perspective is incorporated. Here, we aimed to evaluate the psychometric properties and application of the Perceived Change Scale - Patient version (PCS-P in a sample of inpatients with mental disorders. Methods: One hundred and ninety-one psychiatric inpatients answered the PCS-P and the Patients' Satisfaction with Mental Health Services Scale (SATIS and were evaluated in terms of clinical and sociodemographic data. An exploratory factor analysis (EFA was performed and internal consistency was calculated. The clinical impressions of the patient, family, and physician were correlated with the patient's perception of change. Results: The EFA indicated a psychometrically suitable four-factor solution. The PCS-P exhibited a coherent relationship with SATIS and had a Cronbach's alpha value of 0.856. No correlations were found between the physician's clinical global impression of improvement and the patient's perception of change, although a moderate positive correlation was found between the patients' clinical global impression of improvement and the change perceived by the patient. Conclusions: The PCS-P exhibited adequate psychometric proprieties in a sample of inpatients with mental disorders. The patient's perception of change is an important dimension for evaluation of outcomes in the treatment of mental disorders and differs from the physician's clinical impression of improvement. Evaluation of positive and negative perceptions of the various dimensions of the patient's life enables more precise consideration of the patient's priorities and interests.

  11. Determining the size of a complete disturbance landscape: multi-scale, continental analysis of forest change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buma, Brian; Costanza, Jennifer K; Riitters, Kurt

    2017-11-21

    The scale of investigation for disturbance-influenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact locations are unknown. This research quantified disturbance proportion and pattern (as contagion) at multiple scales across North America. This pattern of scale-associated variability can guide selection of study and management extents, for example, to minimize variance (measured as standard deviation) between any landscapes within an ecoregion. We identified the proportion and pattern of forest disturbance (30 m grain size) across multiple landscape extents up to 180 km 2 . We explored the variance in proportion of disturbed area and the pattern of that disturbance between landscapes (within an ecoregion) as a function of the landscape extent. In many ecoregions, variance between landscapes within an ecoregion was minimal at broad landscape extents (low standard deviation). Gap-dominated regions showed the least variance, while fire-dominated showed the largest. Intensively managed ecoregions displayed unique patterns. A majority of the ecoregions showed low variance between landscapes at some scale, indicating an appropriate extent for incorporating natural regimes and unknown future disturbances was identified. The quantification of the scales of disturbance at the ecoregion level provides guidance for individuals interested in anticipating future disturbances which will occur in unknown spatial locations. Information on the extents required to incorporate disturbance patterns into planning is crucial for that process.

  12. Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change in the Central Appalachian Mountains, U.S.: A Multi-Scale Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshleman, K. N.; Negley, T. L.; Townsend, P. A.

    2003-12-01

    Quantifying, understanding, and predicting the hydrological impacts of land use changes and land management practices are important objectives of both the academic hydrologist and the civil engineer. Relationships between stormflow response and land use have been most readily observed at small spatial scales (e.g., hillslopes, small experimental watersheds), but have proved difficult to establish in larger basins where (1) high-resolution precipitation data are usually unavailable, (2) land use patterns are often exceedingly complex, and (3) land use changes are essentially uncontrolled. In the Central Appalachian Mountains of the U.S., conversion of forests to mined lands (through devegetation, excavation of overburden and coal deposits, and subsequent reclamation) is the dominant land use change presently occurring. In the Georges Creek basin in western Maryland, for example, the portion of the watershed classified as mined (including active, reclaimed, and abandoned surface mines) increased from 3.8 to 15.5% from 1962 to 1997; modest urbanization of the basin (2.4 to 4.7%) also occurred during this period. In 1999, we initiated a comparative field study to determine if surface coal-mining and subsequent land reclamation practices affect stormflow responses at multiple spatial scales: (1) plot, (2) small watershed, and (3) river basin scales. Results from the plot-scale experiments suggested that soil infiltration capacity is grossly reduced during mining and reclamation, apparently due to loss of forest litter and soil compaction by heavy machinery. At the small watershed (<25 ha) scale, a comparative analysis of a pair of gaged watersheds indicated that conventional methods of surface mining and reclamation can increase peak stormflow, total storm runoff, and storm runoff coefficient by about 250% relative to similar forested watersheds in the same region. Finally, frequency analysis of long-term runoff data from the larger, extensively-mined Georges Creek

  13. Reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of the lower extremity functional scale in individuals affected by stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verheijde, Joseph L; White, Fred; Tompkins, James; Dahl, Peder; Hentz, Joseph G; Lebec, Michael T; Cornwall, Mark

    2013-12-01

    To investigate reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS) in individuals affected by stroke. The secondary objective was to test the validity and sensitivity of a single-item linear analog scale (LAS) of function. Prospective cohort reliability and validation study. A single rehabilitation department in an academic medical center. Forty-three individuals receiving neurorehabilitation for lower extremity dysfunction after stroke were studied. Their ages ranged from 32 to 95 years, with a mean of 70 years; 77% were men. Test-retest reliability was assessed by calculating the classical intraclass correlation coefficient, and the Bland-Altman limits of agreement. Validity was assessed by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient between the instruments. Sensitivity to change was assessed by comparing baseline scores with end of treatment scores. Measurements were taken at baseline, after 1-3 days, and at 4 and 8 weeks. The LEFS, Short-Form-36 Physical Function Scale, Berg Balance Scale, Six-Minute Walk Test, Five-Meter Walk Test, Timed Up-and-Go test, and the LAS of function were used. The test-retest reliability of the LEFS was found to be excellent (ICC = 0.96). Correlated with the 6 other measures of function studied, the validity of the LEFS was found to be moderate to high (r = 0.40-0.71). Regarding the sensitivity to change, the mean LEFS scores from baseline to study end increased 1.2 SD and for LAS 1.1 SD. LEFS exhibits good reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change in patients with lower extremity impairments secondary to stroke. Therefore, the LEFS can be a clinically efficient outcome measure in the rehabilitation of patients with subacute stroke. The LAS is shown to be a time-saving and reasonable option to track changes in a patient's functional status. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia: Analyzing Regional Land Use Change Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael Keller; Maria Assunção Silva-Dias; Daniel C. Nepstad; Meinrat O. Andreae

    2004-01-01

    The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a multi-disciplinary, multinational scientific project led by Brazil. LBA researchers seek to understand Amazonia in its global context especially with regard to regional and global climate. Current development activities in Amazonia including deforestation, logging, cattle ranching, and agriculture...

  15. Century scale climate change in the central highlands of Sri Lanka

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this study, an analysis of century scale climate trends in the central highlands of Sri Lanka is presented. Monthly rainfall and temperature records of the period 1869–2006 from five climatological stations were analyzed. The trend is calculated by the least square regression analysis and the significance of the observed ...

  16. Unraveling the photovoltaic technology learning curve by incorporation of input price changes and scale effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, C.F.; van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.; Alsema, E.A.

    2011-01-01

    In a large number of energy models, the use of learning curves for estimating technological improvements has become popular. This is based on the assumption that technological development can be monitored by following cost development as a function of market size. However, recent data show that in some stages of photovoltaic technology (PV) production, the market price of PV modules stabilizes even though the cumulative capacity increases. This implies that no technological improvement takes place in these periods: the cost predicted by the learning curve in the PV study is lower than the market one. We propose that this bias results from ignoring the effects of input prices and scale effects, and that incorporating the input prices and scale effects into the learning curve theory is an important issue in making cost predictions more reliable. In this paper, a methodology is described to incorporate the scale and input-prices effect as the additional variables into the one factor learning curve, which leads to the definition of the multi-factor learning curve. This multi-factor learning curve is not only derived from economic theories, but also supported by an empirical study. The results clearly show that input prices and scale effects are to be included, and that, although market prices are stabilizing, learning is still taking place. (author)

  17. Sustainability of small reservoirs and large scale water availability under current conditions and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, Martinus S.; de Vries, Marjella J.; van Oel, Pieter R.; Carlos de Araújo, José

    2011-01-01

    Semi-arid river basins often rely on reservoirs for water supply. Small reservoirs may impact on large-scale water availability both by enhancing availability in a distributed sense and by subtracting water for large downstream user communities, e.g. served by large reservoirs. Both of these impacts

  18. How to Measure and Explain Achievement Change in Large-Scale Assessments: A Rejoinder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickendorff, Marian; Heiser, Willem J.; van Putten, Cornelis M.; Verhelst, Norman D.

    2009-01-01

    In this rejoinder, we discuss substantive and methodological validity issues of large-scale assessments of trends in student achievement, commenting on the discussion paper by Van den Heuvel-Panhuizen, Robitzsch, Treffers, and Koller (2009). We focus on methodological challenges in deciding what to measure, how to measure it, and how to foster…

  19. Symptom changes in five dimensions of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale in refractory psychosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woodward, T.S.; Jung, K.; Smith, G.N.; Hwang, H.; Barr, A.M.; Procyshyn, R.M.; Flynn, S.W.; van der Gaag, M.; Honer, W.G.

    2014-01-01

    Refractory psychosis units currently have little information regarding which symptoms profiles should be expected to respond to treatment. In the current study, we provide this information using structural equation modeling of Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) ratings at admission and

  20. Large-scale geographical variation confirms that climate change causes birds to lay earlier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Both, C; Artemyev, AV; Blaauw, B; Cowie, RJ; Dekhuijzen, AJ; Eeva, T; Enemar, A; Gustafsson, L; Ivankina, EV; Jarvinen, A; Metcalfe, NB; Nyholm, NEI; Potti, J; Ravussin, PA; Sanz, JJ; Silverin, B; Slater, FM; Sokolov, LV; Torok, J; Winkel, W; Wright, J; Zang, H; Visser, ME

    2004-01-01

    Advances in the phenology of organisms are often attributed to climate change, but alternatively, may reflect a publication bias towards advances and may be caused by environmental factors unrelated to climate change. Both factors are investigated using the breeding dates of 25 long-term studied

  1. A model for managing large-scale change: a higher education ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In recent years the environment in which higher education has had to operate has become increasingly complex, uncertain and turbulent, and has manifested an ever-increasing rate of change. The environmental changes are due to, for example, growing global competition, shifting stakeholder expectations, technological ...

  2. Longitudinal thermal heterogeneity in rivers and refugia for coldwater species: effects of scale and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate-change driven increases in water temperature pose multiple challenges for aquatic organisms. Predictions of climate change impacts to biota typically do not account for fine-grained spatiotemporal patterns of stream networks; yet patches of cooler water within rivers c...

  3. Projecting Poverty at the Household Scale to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Poor People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.; Rozenberg, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and 2050, in 92 countries covering 90% of the developing world population. It accounts for the deep uncertainties that characterize future socio-economic evolutions and the lack of data regarding the condition and livelihood of poor people. It also considers many impacts of climate change, another source of uncertainty. We use a micro-simulation model based on household surveys and explore a wide range of uncertainties on future structural change, productivity growth or demographic changes. This results, for each country, in the creation of several hundred scenarios for future income growth and income distribution. We then explore the resulting space of possible futures and use scenario discovery techniques to identify the main drivers of inequalities and poverty reduction. We find that redistribution and structural change are powerful drivers of poverty and inequality reduction, except in low-income countries. In the poorest countries in Africa, reducing poverty cannot rely on redistribution but requires low population growth and productivity growth in agriculture. Once we have explored the space of possible outcomes for poverty and inequalities, we choose two representative scenarios of the best and worst cases and model the impacts of climate change in each of these two scenarios. Climate change impacts are modeled through 4 channels. First, climate change has an impact on labor productivity growth for people who work outside because of higher temperatures. Second, climate change has an impact on human capital because of more severe stunting in some places. Third, climate change has an impact on physical capital via more frequent natural disasters. Fourth, climate change has an impact on consumption because of changes in food prices. Impacts are very heterogeneous across countries and are mostly concentrated in African and South-East Asian countries. For high radiative forcing (RCP8

  4. A Conditional Fourier-Feynman Transform and Conditional Convolution Product with Change of Scales on a Function Space II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Hyun Cho

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a simple formula for conditional expectations over continuous paths, we will evaluate conditional expectations which are types of analytic conditional Fourier-Feynman transforms and conditional convolution products of generalized cylinder functions and the functions in a Banach algebra which is the space of generalized Fourier transforms of the measures on the Borel class of L2[0,T]. We will then investigate their relationships. Particularly, we prove that the conditional transform of the conditional convolution product can be expressed by the product of the conditional transforms of each function. Finally we will establish change of scale formulas for the conditional transforms and the conditional convolution products. In these evaluation formulas and change of scale formulas, we use multivariate normal distributions so that the conditioning function does not contain present positions of the paths.

  5. EFFECTS OF PORE STRUCTURE CHANGE AND MULTI-SCALE HETEROGENEITY ON CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT AND REACTION RATE UPSCALING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, Catherine A [Princeton University

    2013-05-15

    This project addressed the scaling of geochemical reactions to core and field scales, and the interrelationship between reaction rates and flow in porous media. We targeted reactive transport problems relevant to the Hanford site specifically the reaction of highly caustic, radioactive waste solutions with subsurface sediments, and the immobilization of 90Sr and 129I through mineral incorporation and passive flow blockage, respectively. We addressed the correlation of results for pore-scale fluid-soil interaction with field-scale fluid flow, with the specific goals of (i) predicting attenuation of radionuclide concentration; (ii) estimating changes in flow rates through changes of soil permeabilities; and (iii) estimating effective reaction rates. In supplemental work, we also simulated reactive transport systems relevant to geologic carbon sequestration. As a whole, this research generated a better understanding of reactive transport in porous media, and resulted in more accurate methods for reaction rate upscaling and improved prediction of permeability evolution. These scientific advancements will ultimately lead to better tools for management and remediation of DOE legacy waste problems.

  6. Large-scale dam removal on the Elwha River, Washington, USA: river channel and floodplain geomorphic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    East, Amy E.; Pess, George R.; Bountry, Jennifer A.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Ritchie, Andrew C.; Logan, Joshua; Randle, Timothy J.; Mastin, Mark C.; Minear, Justin T.; Duda, Jeffrey J.; Liermann, Martin C.; McHenry, Michael L.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

    2015-01-01

    A substantial increase in fluvial sediment supply relative to transport capacity causes complex, large-magnitude changes in river and floodplain morphology downstream. Although sedimentary and geomorphic responses to sediment pulses are a fundamental part of landscape evolution, few opportunities exist to quantify those processes over field scales. We investigated the downstream effects of sediment released during the largest dam removal in history, on the Elwha River, Washington, USA, by measuring changes in riverbed elevation and topography, bed sediment grain size, and channel planform as two dams were removed in stages over two years.

  7. Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey; Warner, John C.; Kumar, Nirnimesh

    2017-01-01

    Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(105 m3/yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of

  8. A New Perspective on Changing Arctic Marine Ecosystems: Panarchy Adaptive Cycles in Pan-Arctic Spatial and Temporal Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiese, F. K.; Huntington, H. P.; Carmack, E.; Wassmann, P. F. J.; Leu, E. S.; Gradinger, R.

    2016-02-01

    Changes in the physical/biological interactions in the Arctic are occurring across a variety of spatial and temporal scales and may be mitigated or strengthened based on varying rates of evolutionary adaptation. A novel way to view these interactions and their social relevance is through the systems theory perspective of "Panarchy" proposed by Gunderson and Holling. Panarchy is an interdisciplinary approach in which structures, scales and linkages of complex-adaptive systems, including those of nature (e.g. ocean), humans (e.g. economics), and combined social-ecological systems (e.g. institutions that govern natural resource use), are mapped across multiple space and time scales in continual and interactive adaptive cycles of growth, accumulation, restructuring and renewal. In complex-adaptive systems the dynamics at a given scale are generally dominated by a small number of key internal variables that are forced by one or more external variables. The stability of such a system is characterized by its resilience, i.e. its capacity to absorb disturbance and re-organize while undergoing change, so as to retain essentially similar function, structure, identity and feedbacks. It is in the capacity of a system to cope with pressures and adversities such as exploitation, warming, governance restrictions, competition, etc. that resilience embraces human and natural systems as complex entities continually adapting through cycles of change. In this paper we explore processes at four linked spatial domains in the Arctic Ocean and link it to ecosystem resilience and re-organization characteristics. From this we derive a series of hypotheses concerning the biological responses to future physical changes and suggest ways how Panarchy theory can be applied to observational strategies to help detect early signs of environmental shifts affecting marine system services and functions. We close by discussing possible implications of the Panarchy framework for policy and governance.

  9. Landscape Change in the Southern Piedmont: Challenges, Solutions, and Uncertainty Across Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Conroy

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The southern Piedmont of the southeastern United States epitomizes the complex and seemingly intractable problems and hard decisions that result from uncontrolled urban and suburban sprawl. Here we consider three recurrent themes in complicated problems involving complex systems: (1 scale dependencies and cross-scale, often nonlinear relationships; (2 resilience, in particular the potential for complex systems to move to alternate stable states with decreased ecological and/or economic value; and (3 uncertainty in the ability to understand and predict outcomes, perhaps particularly those that occur as a result of human impacts. We consider these issues in the context of landscape-level decision making, using as an example water resources and lotic systems in the Piedmont region of the southeastern United States.

  10. Periodic Solution of Second-Order Hamiltonian Systems with a Change Sign Potential on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Hui Su

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the second-order Hamiltonian system on time scales 𝕋 of the form uΔΔ(ρ(t+μb(t|u(t|μ−2u(t+∇¯H(t,u(t=0, Δ-a.e. t∈[0,T]𝕋 , u(0−u(T=uΔ(ρ(0−uΔ(ρ(T=0, where 0,T∈𝕋. By using the minimax methods in critical theory, an existence theorem of periodic solution for the above system is established. As an application, an example is given to illustrate the result. This is probably the first time the existence of periodic solutions for second-order Hamiltonian system on time scales has been studied by critical theory.

  11. Landscape change in the Southern Piedmont: Challenges, solutions and uncertainty across scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conroy, M.J.; Allen, Craig R.; Peterson, J.T.; Pritchard, L.; Moore, C.T.

    2003-01-01

    The southern Piedmont of the southeastern United States epitomizes the complex and seemingly intractable problems and hard decisions that result from uncontrolled urban and suburban sprawl. Here we consider three recurrent themes in complicated problems involving complex systems: (1) scale dependencies and cross-scale, often nonlinear relationships; (2) resilience, in particular the potential for complex systems to move to alternate stable states with decreased ecological and/or economic value; and (3) uncertainty in the ability to understand and predict outcomes, perhaps particularly those that occur as a result of human impacts. We consider these issues in the context of landscape-level decision making, using as an example water resources and lotic systems in the Piedmont region of the southeastern United States. Copyright ?? 2003 by the author(s). Published here under licence by The Resilience Alliance.

  12. Assessing fit, interplay, and scale: Aligning governance and information for improved water management in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchhoff, C.; Dilling, L.

    2011-12-01

    Water managers have long experienced the challenges of managing water resources in a variable climate. However, climate change has the potential to reshape the experiential landscape by, for example, increasing the intensity and duration of droughts, shifting precipitation timing and amounts, and changing sea levels. Given the uncertainty in evaluating potential climate risks as well as future water availability and water demands, scholars suggest water managers employ more flexible and adaptive science-based management to manage uncertainty (NRC 2009). While such an approach is appropriate, for adaptive science-based management to be effective both governance and information must be concordant across three measures: fit, interplay and scale (Young 2002)(Note 1). Our research relies on interviews of state water managers and related experts (n=50) and documentary analysis in five U.S. states to understand the drivers and constraints to improving water resource planning and decision-making in a changing climate using an assessment of fit, interplay and scale as an evaluative framework. We apply this framework to assess and compare how water managers plan and respond to current or anticipated water resource challenges within each state. We hypothesize that better alignment between the data and management framework and the water resource problem improves water managers' facility to understand (via available, relevant, timely information) and respond appropriately (through institutional response mechanisms). In addition, better alignment between governance mechanisms (between the scope of the problem and identified appropriate responses) improves water management. Moreover, because many of the management challenges analyzed in this study concern present day issues with scarcity brought on by a combination of growth and drought, better alignment of fit, interplay, and scale today will enable and prepare water managers to be more successful in adapting to climate change

  13. Large scale parallel FEM computations of far/near stress field changes in rocks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blaheta, Radim; Byczanski, Petr; Jakl, Ondřej; Kohut, Roman; Kolcun, Alexej; Krečmer, Karel; Starý, Jiří

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 4 (2006), s. 449-459 ISSN 0167-739X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA105/02/0492; GA AV ČR(CZ) 1ET400300415 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : large scale finite element analysis Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.722, year: 2006

  14. Climate equivalence scales and the effects of climate change on Russian welfare and well-being

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Frijters; Bernard M.S. van Praag

    1998-01-01

    This paper measures the concepts of welfare and well-being in Russia on the basis of two large Russian household surveys, carried out in 1993 and 1994. Welfare refers to satisfaction with income and well-being refers to satisfaction with life as a whole. This paper investigates how climate conditions in various parts of Russia affect the cost of living and well-being. Climate equivalence scales have been constructed for both welfare and well-being.

  15. A comparison of large scale changes in surface humidity over land in observations and CMIP3 general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willett, Katharine M; Thorne, Peter W; Jones, Philip D; Gillett, Nathan P

    2010-01-01

    Observed changes in the HadCRUH global land surface specific humidity and CRUTEM3 surface temperature from 1973 to 1999 are compared to CMIP3 archive climate model simulations with 20th Century forcings. Observed humidity increases are proportionately largest in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in winter. At the largest spatio-temporal scales moistening is close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of the saturated specific humidity (∼7% K -1 ). At smaller scales in water-limited regions, changes in specific humidity are strongly inversely correlated with total changes in temperature. Conversely, in some regions increases are faster than implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. The range of climate model specific humidity seasonal climatology and variance encompasses the observations. The models also reproduce the magnitude of observed interannual variance over all large regions. Observed and modelled trends and temperature-humidity relationships are comparable except for the extratropical Southern Hemisphere where observations exhibit no trend but models exhibit moistening. This may arise from: long-term biases remaining in the observations; the relative paucity of observational coverage; or common model errors. The overall degree of consistency of anthropogenically forced models with the observations is further evidence for anthropogenic influence on the climate of the late 20th century.

  16. Matching Social and Biophysical Scales in Extensive Livestock Production as a Basis for Adaptation to Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayre, N. F.; Bestelmeyer, B.

    2015-12-01

    Global livestock production is heterogeneous, and its benefits and costs vary widely across global contexts. Extensive grazing lands (or rangelands) constitute the vast majority of the land dedicated to livestock production globally, but they are relatively minor contributors to livestock-related environmental impacts. Indeed, the greatest potential for environmental damage in these lands lies in their potential for conversion to other uses, including agriculture, mining, energy production and urban development. Managing such conversion requires improving the sustainability of livestock production in the face of fragmentation, ecological and economic marginality and climate change. We present research from Mongolia and the United States demonstrating methods of improving outcomes on rangelands by improving the fit between the scales of social and biophysical processes. Especially in arid and semi-arid settings, rangelands exhibit highly variable productivity over space and time and non-linear or threshold dynamics in vegetation; climate change is projected to exacerbate these challenges and, in some cases, diminish overall productivity. Policy and governance frameworks that enable landscape-scale management and administration enable range livestock producers to adapt to these conditions. Similarly, livestock breeds that have evolved to withstand climate and vegetation change improve producers' prospects in the face of increasing variability and declining productivity. A focus on the relationships among primary production, animal production, spatial connectivity, and scale must underpin adaptation strategies in rangelands.

  17. Harnessing cyber-infrastructure for local scale climate change research in Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Vahed, A

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses a major threat to environmental sustainability. Africa in particular, is vulnerable with projected worsening food security, increased threats to public health, increased stress on surface water resources and a general increase...

  18. Comparison of hydrological simulations of climate change using perturbation of observations and distribution-based scaling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2011-01-01

    of the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM). The aim of this study was to determine whether the choice of bias-correction method, applied to the RCM data, aff ected the projected hydrological changes. One method consisted of perturbation of observed data (POD) using climate change signals derived from the RCM......Projected climate change eff ects on groundwater and stream discharges were investigated through simulations with a distributed, physically based, surface water–groundwater model. Input to the hydrological model includes precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and temperature data...... the simulations using both methods, only small differences between the projected changes in hydrological variables for the scenario period were found. Mean annual recharge increased by 15% for the DBS method and 12% for POD, and drain flow increased by 24 and 19%, respectively, while the increases in base flow...

  19. Load response of shape-changing microswimmers scales with their swimming efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, Benjamin M.

    2018-04-01

    External forces acting on a microswimmer can feed back on its self-propulsion mechanism. We discuss this load response for a generic microswimmer that swims by cyclic shape changes. We show that the change in cycle frequency is proportional to the Lighthill efficiency of self-propulsion. As a specific example, we consider Najafi's three-sphere swimmer. The force-velocity relation of a microswimmer implies a correction for a formal superposition principle for active and passive motion.

  20. Limits of Wave Runup and Corresponding Beach-Profile Change from Large-Scale Laboratory Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    A nearly vertical scarp developed after 40 min of wave action, with the upper limit of beach change identified at the toe of the dune scarp. and...change UL was found to approximately equal the vertical excursion of total wave runup, Rtw. An exception was runs where beach or dune scarps were...approximately equal the vertical excursion of total wave runup, Rtw. An exception was runs where beach or dune scarps were produced, which substantially limit the

  1. A Scale-Explicit Framework for Conceptualizing the Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Land Use Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Iago Lowe Hale; Wilfred M. Wollheim; Richard G. Smith; Heidi Asbjornsen; André F. Brito; Kirk Broders; A. Stuart Grandy; Rebecca Rowe

    2014-01-01

    Demand for locally-produced food is growing in areas outside traditionally dominant agricultural regions due to concerns over food safety, quality, and sovereignty; rural livelihoods; and environmental integrity. Strategies for meeting this demand rely upon agricultural land use change, in various forms of either intensification or extensification (converting non-agricultural land, including native landforms, to agricultural use). The nature and extent of the impacts of these changes on non-f...

  2. Unsupervised Multi-Scale Change Detection from SAR Imagery for Monitoring Natural and Anthropogenic Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajadi, Olaniyi A.

    Radar remote sensing can play a critical role in operational monitoring of natural and anthropogenic disasters. Despite its all-weather capabilities, and its high performance in mapping, and monitoring of change, the application of radar remote sensing in operational monitoring activities has been limited. This has largely been due to: (1) the historically high costs associated with obtaining radar data; (2) slow data processing, and delivery procedures; and (3) the limited temporal sampling that was provided by spaceborne radar-based satellites. Recent advances in the capabilities of spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors have developed an environment that now allows for SAR to make significant contributions to disaster monitoring. New SAR processing strategies that can take full advantage of these new sensor capabilities are currently being developed. Hence, with this PhD dissertation, I aim to: (i) investigate unsupervised change detection techniques that can reliably extract signatures from time series of SAR images, and provide the necessary flexibility for application to a variety of natural, and anthropogenic hazard situations; (ii) investigate effective methods to reduce the effects of speckle and other noise on change detection performance; (iii) automate change detection algorithms using probabilistic Bayesian inferencing; and (iv) ensure that the developed technology is applicable to current, and future SAR sensors to maximize temporal sampling of a hazardous event. This is achieved by developing new algorithms that rely on image amplitude information only, the sole image parameter that is available for every single SAR acquisition.. The motivation and implementation of the change detection concept are described in detail in Chapter 3. In the same chapter, I demonstrated the technique's performance using synthetic data as well as a real-data application to map wildfire progression. I applied Radiometric Terrain Correction (RTC) to the data to

  3. A new method for large-scale assessment of change in ecosystem functioning in relation to land degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horion, Stephanie; Ivits, Eva; Verzandvoort, Simone; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-04-01

    Ongoing pressures on European land are manifold with extreme climate events and non-sustainable use of land resources being amongst the most important drivers altering the functioning of the ecosystems. The protection and conservation of European natural capital is one of the key objectives of the 7th Environmental Action Plan (EAP). The EAP stipulates that European land must be managed in a sustainable way by 2020 and the UN Sustainable development goals define a Land Degradation Neutral world as one of the targets. This implies that land degradation (LD) assessment of European ecosystems must be performed repeatedly allowing for the assessment of the current state of LD as well as changes compared to a baseline adopted by the UNCCD for the objective of land degradation neutrality. However, scientifically robust methods are still lacking for large-scale assessment of LD and repeated consistent mapping of the state of terrestrial ecosystems. Historical land degradation assessments based on various methods exist, but methods are generally non-replicable or difficult to apply at continental scale (Allan et al. 2007). The current lack of research methods applicable at large spatial scales is notably caused by the non-robust definition of LD, the scarcity of field data on LD, as well as the complex inter-play of the processes driving LD (Vogt et al., 2011). Moreover, the link between LD and changes in land use (how land use changes relates to change in vegetation productivity and ecosystem functioning) is not straightforward. In this study we used the segmented trend method developed by Horion et al. (2016) for large-scale systematic assessment of hotspots of change in ecosystem functioning in relation to LD. This method alleviates shortcomings of widely used linear trend model that does not account for abrupt change, nor adequately captures the actual changes in ecosystem functioning (de Jong et al. 2013; Horion et al. 2016). Here we present a new methodology for

  4. How and why children change in aggression and delinquency from childhood to adolescence: moderation of overreactive parenting by child personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Haan, A D; Prinzie, P; Deković, M

    2010-06-01

    This study examines how and why children change in aggression and delinquency from age 6 to 15 years. Besides assessing the shape of the developmental trajectories of aggression and delinquency, we investigated whether child personality characteristics, parenting, and interactions between these two predict the development of aggression/delinquency. Employing a cohort-sequential design, data from the Flemish Study on Parenting, Personality, and Development were used. The sample consisted of 586 children aged 6-9 years at the first assessment, and their parents. Mothers, fathers, and teachers rated child personality at Time 1 using the Hierarchical Personality Inventory for Children, and mothers and fathers rated externalizing behaviors at the first, second, and third assessment using the Child Behavior Checklist. Parents rated their own overreactive parenting at Time 1 with the Parenting Scale. Aggression and delinquency showed differential, though interrelated development. Less extraverted, benevolent and conscientious children, and more imaginative children were more susceptible to overreactivity. The model replicated across fathers' overreactivity. Parents of children who are less extraverted, benevolent and conscientious, or more imaginative, are in particular need of being supported in developing and maintaining effective disciplinary techniques.

  5. Change of International Restless Legs Syndrome Study Group Rating Scale subscales with treatment and placebo: a pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitchell UH

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Ulrike H Mitchell,1 Sterling C Hilton2 1Brigham Young University, Department of Exercise Sciences, 2Department of Educational Leadership and Foundations, Provo, UT, USA Background: In 2003, the 10-question International Restless Legs Syndrome Study Group Rating Scale (IRLS was developed as a means of assessing the severity of restless legs syndrome. Two subscales were identified: symptom severity (SS 1 and symptom impact (SS 2. Only one study has investigated the subscales' responsiveness to a 12-week treatment with ropinirole. This current study was undertaken to assess the impact of a 4-week, non-pharmaceutical treatment on the two subscales and to explore whether or not both subscales were impacted by the observed placebo effect. Methods: The pooled data from questionnaires of 58 patients (41 from both treatment groups and 17 from the sham treatment control group, who participated in two clinical studies, were reviewed. Their change in score over a 4-week trial was computed. The average change in both subscales in both groups was computed and t-tests were performed. Results: In the treatment group, the average scores of both subscales changed significantly from baseline to week 4 (P<0.005 for both. Compared to the control, SS 1 changed (P<0.001, but not SS 2 (P=0.18. In the sham treatment group, the scores for SS 1 changed significantly (P=0.002, but not for SS 2 (P=0.2. Conclusion: This study corroborated findings from an earlier study in which both subscales changed with a 12-week drug treatment. It also showed that the observed placebo effect is attributed to a small but significant change in symptom severity, but not symptom impact. Keywords: restless legs syndrome, RLS severity scale, IRLS subscales, symptom impact, symptom severity

  6. Narrating personality change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodi-Smith, Jennifer; Geise, Aaron C; Roberts, Brent W; Robins, Richard W

    2009-03-01

    The present research investigated the longitudinal relations between personality traits and narratives. Specifically, the authors examined how individual differences in 170 college students' narratives of personality change (a) were predicted by personality traits at the beginning of college, (b) related to actual changes and perceived changes in personality traits during college, and (c) related to changes in emotional health during college. Individual differences in narratives of personality trait change told in the 4th year of college fell into 2 dimensions: affective processing, characterized by positive emotions, and exploratory processing, characterized by meaning making and causal processing. Conscientious, open, and extraverted freshmen told exploratory stories of change as seniors. Emotionally healthy freshmen told stories of change that were high in positive affect. Both positive affective and exploratory stories corresponded to change in emotional stability and conscientiousness during college above and beyond the effects of perceived changes in these traits. In addition, both positive affective and exploratory narratives corresponded to increases in emotional health during college independent of the effects of changes in personality traits. These findings improve our understanding of how individuals conceptualize their changing identity over time.

  7. Planck scale physics and topology change through an exactly solvable model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobo, Francisco S.N., E-mail: flobo@cii.fc.ul.pt [Centro de Astronomia e Astrofísica da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Ed. C8, 1749-016 Lisboa (Portugal); Martinez-Asencio, Jesus, E-mail: jesusmartinez@ua.es [Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Fase II, Universidad de Alicante, Alicante E-03690 (Spain); Olmo, Gonzalo J., E-mail: gonzalo.olmo@csic.es [Departamento de Física Teórica and IFIC, Centro Mixto Universidad de Valencia – CSIC, Universidad de Valencia, Burjassot, 46100, Valencia (Spain); Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, 58051-900 João Pessoa, Paraíba (Brazil); Rubiera-Garcia, D., E-mail: drubiera@fisica.ufpb.br [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, 58051-900 João Pessoa, Paraíba (Brazil)

    2014-04-04

    We consider the collapse of a charged radiation fluid in a Planck-suppressed quadratic extension of General Relativity (GR) formulated à la Palatini. We obtain exact analytical solutions that extend the charged Vaidya-type solution of GR, which allows to explore in detail new physics at the Planck scale. Starting from Minkowski space, we find that the collapsing fluid generates wormholes supported by the electric field. We discuss the relevance of our findings in relation to the quantum foam structure of space–time and the meaning of curvature divergences in this theory.

  8. Impact of climate change on large scale coastal currents of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Meyer, A

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available of temperature trends in the southern indian ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L14611, doi:10.1029/2007gL030380. • De Ruijter, W.P.M., van Aken, H.M., Beier, E.J., Lutjeharms, J.R.E., Matano, R.P. Schouten, M.W. 2004. eddies and dipoles around South... Madagascar: formation, pathways and large- scale impact. Deep-Sea Research I, 51, 383-400. • Lutjeharms, J. R. E. and van Ballegooyen, R. C. 1988. Anomalous upstream retroflection in the agulhas current. Science, 240, 1770-1772. • Rouault, M., Penven...

  9. Planck scale physics and topology change through an exactly solvable model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobo, Francisco S.N.; Martinez-Asencio, Jesus; Olmo, Gonzalo J.; Rubiera-Garcia, D.

    2014-01-01

    We consider the collapse of a charged radiation fluid in a Planck-suppressed quadratic extension of General Relativity (GR) formulated à la Palatini. We obtain exact analytical solutions that extend the charged Vaidya-type solution of GR, which allows to explore in detail new physics at the Planck scale. Starting from Minkowski space, we find that the collapsing fluid generates wormholes supported by the electric field. We discuss the relevance of our findings in relation to the quantum foam structure of space–time and the meaning of curvature divergences in this theory.

  10. Citizen science reveals unexpected continental-scale evolutionary change in a model organism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Silvertown

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Organisms provide some of the most sensitive indicators of climate change and evolutionary responses are becoming apparent in species with short generation times. Large datasets on genetic polymorphism that can provide an historical benchmark against which to test for recent evolutionary responses are very rare, but an exception is found in the brown-lipped banded snail (Cepaea nemoralis. This species is sensitive to its thermal environment and exhibits several polymorphisms of shell colour and banding pattern affecting shell albedo in the majority of populations within its native range in Europe. We tested for evolutionary changes in shell albedo that might have been driven by the warming of the climate in Europe over the last half century by compiling an historical dataset for 6,515 native populations of C. nemoralis and comparing this with new data on nearly 3,000 populations. The new data were sampled mainly in 2009 through the Evolution MegaLab, a citizen science project that engaged thousands of volunteers in 15 countries throughout Europe in the biggest such exercise ever undertaken. A known geographic cline in the frequency of the colour phenotype with the highest albedo (yellow was shown to have persisted and a difference in colour frequency between woodland and more open habitats was confirmed, but there was no general increase in the frequency of yellow shells. This may have been because snails adapted to a warming climate through behavioural thermoregulation. By contrast, we detected an unexpected decrease in the frequency of Unbanded shells and an increase in the Mid-banded morph. Neither of these evolutionary changes appears to be a direct response to climate change, indicating that the influence of other selective agents, possibly related to changing predation pressure and habitat change with effects on micro-climate.

  11. The effect of millennial-scale changes in Arabian Sea denitrification on atmospheric CO{sub 2}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Altabet, M.A.; Higginson, M.J. [University of Massachusetts, New Bedford, MA (United States). School for Marine Science and Technology; Murray, D.W. [Brown University, Providence, RI (United States). Center for Environmental Studies

    2002-07-01

    Most global biogeochemical processes are known to respond to climate change, some of which have the capacity to produce feedbacks through the regulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Marine denitrification - the reduction of nitrate to gaseous nitrogen - is an important process in this regard, affecting greenhouse gas concentrations directly through the incidental production of nitrous oxide, and indirectly through modification of the marine nitrogen inventory and hence the biological pump for C0{sub 2}. Although denitrification has been shown to vary with glacial-interglacial cycles, its response to more rapid climate change has not yet been well characterized. Here we present nitrogen isotope ratio, nitrogen content and chlorin abundance data from sediment cores with high accumulation rates on the Oman continental margin that reveal substantial millennial-scale variability in Arabian Sea denitrification and productivity during the last glacial period. The detailed correspondence of these changes with Dansgaard-Oeschger events recorded in Greenland ice cores indicates rapid, century-scale reorganization of the Arabian Sea ecosystem in response to climate excursions, mediated through the intensity of summer monsoonal upwelling. Considering the several-thousand-year residence time of fixed nitrogen in the ocean, the response of global marine productivity to changes in denitrification would have occurred at lower frequency and appears to be related to climatic and atmospheric C0{sub 2} oscillations observed in Antarctic ice cores between 20 and A kyr ago. (author)

  12. Chemical modelling studies on the impact of small scale mineralogical changes on radionuclide migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emren, A.T.

    1998-01-01

    Several models exist for control of redox properties in groundwater. The proposals for redox controlling substances include iron oxides, chlorites, methane, pyrite and poly-sulphides. The CRACKER program has been developed to model groundwater formation in crystalline rock. The program has been used to model observed Aespoe groundwaters. The modelled and observed groundwater properties have been found to be similar. It has been found that some of the models have difficulties in explaining other properties than the pE-pH behaviour (properties like element concentrations), while other models perform quite well. pE-pH results are shown for a model consisting of some thirty minerals and a high salinity groundwater at two temperatures. The redox properties have been assumed to be controlled by several redox reactions occurring simultaneously. The most obvious feature is the decrease in pH at a higher temperature. It has also been found that modelled retardation of radionuclides is lower if the mineral distribution shows a spatial variability at a length scale of a few millimeters rather than being homogeneous at such length scales. (R.P.)

  13. Using the Personality Assessment Inventory Antisocial and Borderline Features Scales to Predict Behavior Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Morey, Leslie C; Edens, John F

    2016-11-01

    A substantial amount of research has examined the developmental trajectory of antisocial behavior and, in particular, the relationship between antisocial behavior and maladaptive personality traits. However, research typically has not controlled for previous behavior (e.g., past violence) when examining the utility of personality measures, such as self-report scales of antisocial and borderline traits, in predicting future behavior (e.g., subsequent violence). Examination of the potential interactive effects of measures of both antisocial and borderline traits also is relatively rare in longitudinal research predicting adverse outcomes. The current study utilizes a large sample of youthful offenders ( N = 1,354) from the Pathways to Desistance project to examine the separate effects of the Personality Assessment Inventory Antisocial Features (ANT) and Borderline Features (BOR) scales in predicting future offending behavior as well as trends in other negative outcomes (e.g., substance abuse, violence, employment difficulties) over a 1-year follow-up period. In addition, an ANT × BOR interaction term was created to explore the predictive effects of secondary psychopathy. ANT and BOR both explained unique variance in the prediction of various negative outcomes even after controlling for past indicators of those same behaviors during the preceding year.

  14. Millennial-scale vegetation changes in the tropical Andes using ecological grouping and ordination methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urrego, D.H.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Rama-Corredor, O.; Martrat, B.; Grimalt, J.O.; Thompson, L.; Bush, M.B.; González-Carranza, Z.; Hanselman, J.; Valencia, B.; Velásquez-Ruiz, C.

    2016-01-01

    We compare eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from northern and southern sites in the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the last 30 000 years, with particular emphasis on the Pleistocene to Holocene transition. We explore ecological grouping and downcore

  15. Projecting large-scale area changes in land use and land cover for terrestrial carbon analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph J. Alig; Brett J. Butler

    2004-01-01

    One of the largest changes in US forest type areas over the last half-century has involved pine types in the South. The area of planted pine has increased more than 10-fold since 1950, mostly on private lands. Private landowners have responded to market incentives and government programs, including subsidized afforestation on marginal agricultural land. Timber harvest...

  16. Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Bjork; Noemie Boulanger-Lapointe; Elisabeth J. Cooper; Johannes H.C. Cornelissen; Thomas A. Day; Ellen Dorrepaal; Tatiana G. Elumeeva; Mike Gill; William A. Gould; John Harte; David S. Hik; Annika Hofgaard; David R. Johnson; Jill F. Johnstone; Ingijorg Svala Jonsdottir; Janet C. Jorgenson; Kari Klanderud; Julia A. Klein; Saewan Koh; Gaku Kudo; Mark Lara; Esther Levesque; Borgthor Magnusson; Jeremy L. May; Joel A. Mercado; Anders Michelsen; Ulf Molau; Isla H. Myers-Smith; Steven F. Oberbauer; Vladimir G. Onipchenko; Christian Rixen; Niels Martin Schmidt; Gaius R. Shaver; Marko J. Spasojevic; Pora Ellen Porhallsdottir; Anne Tolvanen; Tiffany Troxler; Craig E. Tweedie; Sandra Villareal; Carl-Henrik Wahren; Xanthe Walker; Patrick J. Webber; Jeffrey M. Welker; Sonja Wipf

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is increasing at unprecedented rates across most of the tundra biome1. Remote-sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity over much of the Arctic2,3, but plot-based evidence for vegetation transformation is not widespread. We analysed change in tundra vegetation surveyed between 1980 and 2010 in 158...

  17. Estimating fine-scale land use change dynamics using an expedient photointerpretation-based method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonya Lister; Andrew Lister; Eunice Alexander

    2009-01-01

    Population growth and urban expansion have resulted in the loss of forest land. With growing concerns about this loss and its implications for global processes and carbon budgets, there is a great need for detailed and reliable land use change data. Currently, the Northern Research Station uses an Annual Inventory design whereby all plots are revisited every 5 years...

  18. Research framework for an experimental study on phase change materials in scaled models of dutch dwellings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muthing, F.; Entrop, A.G.; Brouwers, H.J.H.

    2009-01-01

    In modern Dutch dwellings, about 10% of the annual use of primary energy is used for cooling, whereas about 50% of the primary energy is used for heating. With the technology of Phase Change Materials (PCMs) energy savings can be made in both areas. PCMs are materials with a high latent heat

  19. Research framework for an experimental study on phase change materials in scaled models of Dutch dwellings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müthing, F.; Entrop, Alexis Gerardus; Brouwers, Jos; Durmisevic, Elma

    2009-01-01

    In modern Dutch dwellings, about 10% of the annual use of primary energy is used for cooling, whereas about 50% of the primary energy is used for heating. With the technology of Phase Change Materials (PCMs) energy savings can be made in both areas. PCMs are materials with a high latent heat

  20. An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valbuena, D.F.; Verburg, P.H.; Bregt, A.K.; Ligtenberg, A.

    2010-01-01

    Land-use/cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. A common approach to analyse and simulate LUCC as the result of individual decisions is agent-based modelling (ABM). However, ABM is often applied to simulate processes at local

  1. Framework for multi-scale integrated impact analyses of climate change mitigation options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perez-Soba, M.; Parr, T.; Roupioz, L.F.S.; Winograd, M.; Peña-Claros, M.; Varela Ortega, C.; Ascarrunz, N.; Balvanera, P.; Bholanath, P.; Equihua, M.; Guerreiro, L.; Jones, L.; Maass, M.; Thonicke, K.

    2013-01-01

    Tropical forest ecosystems are hotspots for biodiversity and represent one of the largest terrestrial carbon stocks, making their role in climate change mitigation (CCM) programmes increasingly important (e.g. REDD+). In Latin America these ecosystems suffer from high land use pressures that have

  2. Mitigating climate change through small-scale forestry in the USA: opportunities and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan Charnley; David Diaz; Hannah. Gosnell

    2010-01-01

    Forest management for carbon sequestration is a low-cost, low-technology, relatively easy way to help mitigate global climate change that can be adopted now while additional long-term solutions are developed. Carbon-oriented management of forests also offers forest owners an opportunity to obtain a new source of income, and commonly has environmental co-benefits. The...

  3. Drivers of temporal changes in temperate forest plant diversity vary across spatial scales

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bernhardt-Römermann, M.; Baeten, L.; Craven, D.; De Frenne, P.; Hédl, Radim; Lenoir, J.; Bert, D.; Brunet, J.; Chudomelová, Markéta; Decocq, G.; Dierschke, H.; Dirnböck, T.; Dörfler, I.; Heinken, T.; Hermy, M.; Hommel, P.; Jaroszewicz, B.; Keczynski, A.; Kelly, D. L.; Kirkby, K.J.; Kopecký, Martin; Macek, Martin; Máliš, F.; Mirtl, M.; Mitchell, F. J. G.; Naaf, T.; Newman, M.; Peterken, G.; Petřík, Petr; Schmidt, W.; Standovár, T.; Tóth, Z.; Van Calster, H.; Verstraeten, G.; Vladovič, J.; Vild, Ondřej; Wulf, M.; Verheyen, K.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 10 (2015), s. 3726-3737 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0267 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 278065 - LONGWOOD Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : temperate forest * long-term change * herbaceous layer Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 8.444, year: 2015

  4. Small, medium and large scale strategies: cases of social response and change in Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Rasmus Ole

    2005-01-01

    Greenland has experienced several socio-economic shifts during the 20th century, characterised by interations between natural systems, climate change and the socio-economic and socio-technical systemm of resource exploitation. The focus is on the socio-economic characteristics of the two recent s...

  5. Dramatic changes in ectomycorrhizal community composition, root tip abundance and mycelial production along a stand-scale nitrogen deposition gradient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjøller, Rasmus; Nilsson, Lars Ola; Hansen, Karin

    2012-01-01

    • Nitrogen (N) availability is known to influence ectomycorrhizal fungal components, such as fungal community composition, biomass of root tips and production of mycelia, but effects have never been demonstrated within the same forest. • We measured concurrently the abundance of ectomycorrhizal...... root tips and the production of external mycelia, and explored the changes in the ectomycorrhizal community composition, across a stand-scale N deposition gradient (from 27 to 43 kg N ha¿¹ yr¿¹) at the edge of a spruce forest. The N status was affected along the gradient as shown by a range of N...... availability indices. • Ectomycorrhizal root tip abundance and mycelial production decreased five and 10-fold, respectively, with increasing N deposition. In addition, the ectomycorrhizal fungal community changed and the species richness decreased. The changes were correlated with the measured indices of N...

  6. Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. van Ulden

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The quality of global sea level pressure patterns has been assessed for simulations by 23 coupled climate models. Most models showed high pattern correlations. With respect to the explained spatial variance, many models showed serious large-scale deficiencies, especially at mid-latitudes. Five models performed well at all latitudes and for each month of the year. Three models had a reasonable skill. We selected the five models with the best pressure patterns for a more detailed assessment of their simulations of the climate in Central Europe. We analysed observations and simulations of monthly mean geostrophic flow indices and of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. We used three geostrophic flow indices: the west component and south component of the geostrophic wind at the surface and the geostrophic vorticity. We found that circulation biases were important, and affected precipitation in particular. Apart from these circulation biases, the models showed other biases in temperature and precipitation, which were for some models larger than the circulation induced biases. For the 21st century the five models simulated quite different changes in circulation, precipitation and temperature. Precipitation changes appear to be primarily caused by circulation changes. Since the models show widely different circulation changes, especially in late summer, precipitation changes vary widely between the models as well. Some models simulate severe drying in late summer, while one model simulates significant precipitation increases in late summer. With respect to the mean temperature the circulation changes were important, but not dominant. However, changes in the distribution of monthly mean temperatures, do show large indirect influences of circulation changes. Especially in late summer, two models simulate very strong warming of warm months, which can be attributed to severe summer drying in the simulations by these models. The models differ also

  7. Climate change, livelihoods and the multiple determinants of water adequacy: two approaches at regional to global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lissner, Tabea; Reusser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Inadequate access to water is already a problem in many regions of the world and processes of global change are expected to further exacerbate the situation. Many aspects determine the adequacy of water resources: beside actual physical water stress, where the resource itself is limited, economic and social water stress can be experienced if access to resource is limited by inadequate infrastructure, political or financial constraints. To assess the adequacy of water availability for human use, integrated approaches are needed that allow to view the multiple determinants in conjunction and provide sound results as a basis for informed decisions. This contribution proposes two parts of an integrated approach to look at the multiple dimensions of water scarcity at regional to global scale. These were developed in a joint project with the German Development Agency (GIZ). It first outlines the AHEAD approach to measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development, implemented at global scale and at national resolution. This first approach allows viewing impacts of climate change, e.g. changes in water availability, within the wider context of AHEAD conditions. A specific focus lies on the uncertainties in projections of climate change and future water availability. As adequate water access is not determined by water availability alone, in a second step we develop an approach to assess the water requirements for different sectors in more detail, including aspects of quantity, quality as well as access, in an integrated way. This more detailed approach is exemplified at region-scale in Indonesia and South Africa. Our results show that in many regions of the world, water scarcity is a limitation to AHEAD conditions in many countries, regardless of differing modelling output. The more detailed assessments highlight the relevance of additional aspects to assess the adequacy of water for human use, showing that in many regions, quality and

  8. Detection and attribution of climate change at regional scale: case study of Karkheh river basin in the west of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zohrabi, Narges; Goodarzi, Elahe; Massah Bavani, Alireza; Najafi, Husain

    2017-11-01

    This research aims at providing a statistical framework for detection and attribution of climate variability and change at regional scale when at least 30 years of observation data are available. While extensive research has been done on detecting significant observed trends in hydroclimate variables and attribution to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in large continents, less attention has been paid for regional scale analysis. The latter is mainly important for adaptation to climate change in different sectors including but not limited to energy, agriculture, and water resources planning and management, and it is still an open discussion in many countries including the West Asian ones. In the absence of regional climate models, an informative framework is suggested providing useful insights for policymakers. It benefits from general flexibility, not being computationally expensive, and applying several trend tests to analyze temporal variations in temperature and precipitation (gradual and step changes). The framework is implemented for a very important river basin in the west of Iran. In general, some increasing and decreasing trends of the interannual precipitation and temperature have been detected. For precipitation annual time series, a reducing step was seen around 1996 compared with the gradual change in most of the stations, which have not experience a dramatical change. The range of natural forcing is found to be ±76 % for precipitation and ±1.4 °C for temperature considering a two-dimensional diagram of precipitation and temperature anomalies from 1000-year control run of global climate model (GCM). Findings out of applying the proposed framework may provide useful insights into how to approach structural and non-structural climate change adaptation strategies from central governments.

  9. Bacterial natural product biosynthetic domain composition in soil correlates with changes in latitude on a continent-wide scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemetre, Christophe; Maniko, Jeffrey; Charlop-Powers, Zachary; Sparrow, Ben; Lowe, Andrew J; Brady, Sean F

    2017-10-31

    Although bacterial bioactive metabolites have been one of the most prolific sources of lead structures for the development of small-molecule therapeutics, very little is known about the environmental factors associated with changes in secondary metabolism across natural environments. Large-scale sequencing of environmental microbiomes has the potential to shed light on the richness of bacterial biosynthetic diversity hidden in the environment, how it varies from one environment to the next, and what environmental factors correlate with changes in biosynthetic diversity. In this study, the sequencing of PCR amplicons generated using primers targeting either ketosynthase domains from polyketide biosynthesis or adenylation domains from nonribosomal peptide biosynthesis was used to assess biosynthetic domain composition and richness in soils collected across the Australian continent. Using environmental variables collected at each soil site, we looked for environmental factors that correlated with either high overall domain richness or changes in the domain composition. Among the environmental variables we measured, changes in biosynthetic domain composition correlate most closely with changes in latitude and to a lesser extent changes in pH. Although it is unclear at this time the exact mix of factors that may drive the relationship between biosynthetic domain composition and latitude, from a practical perspective the identification of a latitudinal basis for differences in soil metagenome biosynthetic domain compositions should help guide future natural product discovery efforts. Published under the PNAS license.

  10. A seesaw in Mediterranean precipitation during the Roman Period linked to millennial-scale changes in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dermody, B. J.; de Boer, H. J.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Weber, S. L.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

    2012-03-01

    We present a reconstruction of the change in climatic humidity around the Mediterranean between 3000-1000 yr BP. Using a range of proxy archives and model simulations we demonstrate that climate during this period was typified by a millennial-scale seesaw in climatic humidity between Spain and Israel on one side and the Central Mediterranean and Turkey on the other, similar to precipitation anomalies associated with the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern in current climate. We find that changes in the position and intensity of the jet stream indicated by our analysis correlate with millennial changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperature. A model simulation indicates the proxies of climatic humidity used in our analysis were unlikely to be influenced by climatic aridification caused by deforestation during the Roman Period. That finding is supported by an analysis of the distribution of archaeological sites in the Eastern Mediterranean which exhibits no evidence that human habitation distribution changed since ancient times as a result of climatic aridification. Therefore we conclude that changes in climatic humidity over the Mediterranean during the Roman Period were primarily caused by a modification of the jet stream linked to sea surface temperature change in the North Atlantic. Based on our findings, we propose that ocean-atmosphere coupling may have contributed to regulating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity during the period of analysis.

  11. Landscape-scale changes in forest canopy structure across a partially logged tropical peat swamp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedeux, B. M. M.; Coomes, D. A.

    2015-11-01

    Forest canopy structure is strongly influenced by environmental factors and disturbance, and in turn influences key ecosystem processes including productivity, evapotranspiration and habitat availability. In tropical forests increasingly modified by human activities, the interplay between environmental factors and disturbance legacies on forest canopy structure across landscapes is practically unexplored. We used airborne laser scanning (ALS) data to measure the canopy of old-growth and selectively logged peat swamp forest across a peat dome in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, and quantified how canopy structure metrics varied with peat depth and under logging. Several million canopy gaps in different height cross-sections of the canopy were measured in 100 plots of 1 km2 spanning the peat dome, allowing us to describe canopy structure with seven metrics. Old-growth forest became shorter and had simpler vertical canopy profiles on deeper peat, consistent with previous work linking deep peat to stunted tree growth. Gap size frequency distributions (GSFDs) indicated fewer and smaller canopy gaps on the deeper peat (i.e. the scaling exponent of Pareto functions increased from 1.76 to 3.76 with peat depth). Areas subjected to concessionary logging until 2000, and illegal logging since then, had the same canopy top height as old-growth forest, indicating the persistence of some large trees, but mean canopy height was significantly reduced. With logging, the total area of canopy gaps increased and the GSFD scaling exponent was reduced. Logging effects were most evident on the deepest peat, where nutrient depletion and waterlogged conditions restrain tree growth and recovery. A tight relationship exists between canopy structure and peat depth gradient within the old-growth tropical peat swamp forest. This relationship breaks down after selective logging, with canopy structural recovery, as observed by ALS, modulated by environmental conditions. These findings improve our

  12. Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...... in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated...... from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases...

  13. Sustainable Land Use in Mountain Regions Under Global Change: Synthesis Across Scales and Disciplines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Huber

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1 more integrative approaches, (2 a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3 enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.

  14. An analysis of forest land use, forest land cover, and change at policy-relevant scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Greg Reams; Dave N. Wear; C. Kenneth Brewer

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the amount of forest and change in the amount of forest are key to ensure that appropriate management practices and policies are in place to maintain the array of ecosystem services provided by forests. There are a range of analytical techniques and data available to estimate these forest parameters, however, not all ‘forest’ is the same and various...

  15. Seeing the forest and the trees: USGS scientist links local changes to global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Jim; Allen, Craig D.

    2011-01-01

    The recent recipient of two major awards, Craig D. Allen, a research ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center, has loved trees since childhood. He is now considered an expert of world renown on the twin phenomena of forest changes and tree mortality resulting from climate warming and drought, and in 2010 was twice recognized for his scientific contributions.In December 2010, Dr. Allen was named a 2010 Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science “for outstanding leadership in the synthesis of global forest responses to climate change, built from worldwide collaboration and a deep understanding of the environmental history of the southwestern United States.”In March 2010, he was honored with the Meritorious Service Award from the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) in recognition of his outstanding vision, initiative, and scientific contributions to the USGS, DOI, and U.S. Department of Agriculture in establishing a model science program to support adaptive land management at the new Valles Caldera National Preserve in north-central New Mexico.Dr. Allen has authored more than 85 publications on landscape ecology and landscape change, from fire history and ecology to ecosystem responses to climate change. He has appeared on NOVA discussing fire ecology and on The Discovery Channel and Discovery Canada explaining the links between drought-induced tree mortality and climate warming, in addition to being interviewed and quoted in innumerable newspaper articles on both topics.But how did this unassuming scientist grow from nurturing maple saplings on 40 acres in Wisconsin to understanding forest system stress worldwide?

  16. Roles of transport and chemistry processes in global ozone change on interannual and multidecadal time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekiya, T.; Sudo, K.

    2014-04-01

    This study investigates ozone changes and the individual impacts of transport and chemistry on those changes. We specifically examine (1) variation related to El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is a dominant mode of interannual variation of tropospheric ozone, and (2) long-term change between the 2000s and 2100s. During El Niño, the simulated ozone shows an increase (1 ppbv/K) over Indonesia, a decrease (2-10 ppbv/K) over the eastern Pacific in the tropical troposphere, and an increase (50 ppbv/K) over the eastern Pacific in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. These variations fundamentally agree with those observed by Microwave Limb Sounder/Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer instruments. The model demonstrates that tropospheric chemistry has a strong impact on the variation over the eastern Pacific in the tropical lower troposphere and that transport dominates the variation in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. Between the 2000s and 2100s, the model predicts an increase in the global burden of stratospheric ozone (0.24%/decade) and a decrease in the global burden of tropospheric ozone (0.82%/decade). The increase in the stratospheric burden is controlled by stratospheric chemistry. Tropospheric chemistry reduces the tropospheric burden by 1.07%/decade. However, transport (i.e., stratosphere-troposphere exchange and tropospheric circulation) causes an increase in the burden (0.25%/decade). Additionally, we test the sensitivity of ozone changes to increased horizontal resolution of the representation of atmospheric circulation and advection apart from any aspects of the nonlinearity of chemistry sensitivity to horizontal resolution. No marked difference is found in medium-resolution or high-resolution simulations, suggesting that the increased horizontal resolution of transport has a minor impact.

  17. Longitudinal thermal heterogeneity in rivers and refugia for coldwater species: Effects of scale and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fullerton, A.H.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Lawer, J.J.; Steel, E. A.; Ebersole, J.L.; Lee, S.Y.

    2018-01-01

    Climate-change driven increases in water temperature pose challenges for aquatic organisms. Predictions of impacts typically do not account for fine-grained spatiotemporal thermal patterns in rivers. Patches of cooler water could serve as refuges for anadromous species like salmon that migrate during summer. We used high-resolution remotely sensed water temperature data to characterize summer thermal heterogeneity patterns for 11,308 km of second–seventh-order rivers throughout the Pacific Northwest and northern California (USA). We evaluated (1) water temperature patterns at different spatial resolutions, (2) the frequency, size, and spacing of cool thermal patches suitable for Pacific salmon (i.e., contiguous stretches ≥ 0.25 km, ≤ 15 °C and ≥ 2 °C, aooler than adjacent water), and (3) potential influences of climate change on availability of cool patches. Thermal heterogeneity was nonlinearly related to the spatial resolution of water temperature data, and heterogeneity at fine resolution ( 2.7 and  5.7 and < 49.4 km. Thermal heterogeneity varied among rivers, some of which had long uninterrupted stretches of warm water ≥ 20 °C, and others had many smaller cool patches. Our models predicted little change in future thermal heterogeneity among rivers, but within-river patterns sometimes changed markedly compared to contemporary patterns. These results can inform long-term monitoring programs as well as near-term climate-adaptation strategies.

  18. Penguin Proxies: Deciphering Millennial-Scale Antarctic Ecosystem Change using Amino Acid Stable Isotope Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelson, C.; McMahon, K.; Emslie, S. D.; Patterson, W. P.; McCarthy, M. D.; Polito, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid environmental change due to ongoing and historic anthropogenic impacts such as climate change and marine mammal harvesting. These disturbances may have cascading effects through the Antarctic food webs, resulting in profound shifts in the sources and cycling of organic matter supporting higher-trophic organisms, such as penguins. For example, bulk stable isotope analyses of modern and ancient preserved penguin tissues suggest variations in penguin feeding ecology throughout the Holocene with dramatic isotopic shifts in the last 200 years. However, it is not clear whether these isotopic shifts resulted from changes at the base of the food web, dietary shifts in penguins, or some combination of both factors. Newly developed compound-specific stable nitrogen isotope analysis of individual amino acids (CSIA-AA) may provide a powerful new tool to tease apart these confounding variables. Stable nitrogen isotope values of trophic amino acids (e.g., glutamic acid) increase substantially with each trophic transfer in the food web, while source amino acid (e.g., phenylalanine) stable nitrogen isotope values remain relatively unchanged and reflect ecosystem baselines. As such, we can use this CSIA-AA approach to decipher between baseline and dietary shifts in penguins over time from modern and ancient eggshells of Pygoscelis penguins in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Ross Sea regions of Antarctica. In order to accurately apply this CSIA-AA approach, we first characterized the trophic fractionation factors of individual amino acids between diet and penguin consumers in a long-term controlled penguin feeding experiment. We then applied these values to modern and ancient eggshells from the Antarctic Peninsula and Ross Sea to evaluate shifts in penguin trophic dynamics as a function of climate and anthropogenic interaction throughout much of the Holocene. This work develops a cutting edge new molecular geochemistry approach

  19. Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Joshua; Glotter, Michael; Ruane, Alex C.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Smith, Leonard A.; Foster, Ian

    2017-01-01

    Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

  20. Scaling the Problem: How Commercial Interests Have Influenced the U.S. Dialogue on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

    2012-12-01

    In recent years, corporations and their affiliates have played an increasing role in the national conversation on climate change, with companies weighing in not only on policy debates but also participating in discussions around climate science. A few of these companies in particular have been tremendously influential in dictating how the public understands, or misunderstands, climate science and how the national discourse on climate policy has progressed, or not progressed. To better understand this corporate involvement, we explored the roles that major corporate actors have played during a key time period in 2009 and 2010 when several important climate change policy proposals were being actively debated in the United States. Analyzing multiple venues in which companies engaged in discussion of climate change with different audiences—including the government, shareholders, and the public—we assess the degree to which commercial interests have helped or hindered a science-based public discourse on climate policy in the past decade. Discussion will focus especially on corporations' use of third party organizations, including industry trade groups, think tanks, and others, to exert influence on climate-related policy without accountability.

  1. Characterizing agricultural impacts of recent large-scale US droughts and changing technology and management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, Joshua [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Computation Inst.; Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States); Glotter, Michael [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of the Geophysical Sciences; Ruane, Alex C. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Boote, Kenneth J. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.; Hatfield, Jerry L. [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Ames, IA (United States). National Lab. for Agriculture and the Environment; Jones, James W. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Smith, Leonard A. [London School of Economics, London (United Kingdom). Center for Analysis of Time Series; Foster, Ian [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Computation Inst.; Computation Inst.; Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model-based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

  2. Watershed-scale modeling of streamflow change in incised montane meadows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Essaid, Hedeff I.; Hill, Barry R.

    2014-01-01

    Land use practices have caused stream channel incision and water table decline in many montane meadows of the Western United States. Incision changes the magnitude and timing of streamflow in water supply source watersheds, a concern to resource managers and downstream water users. The hydrology of montane meadows under natural and incised conditions was investigated using watershed simulation for a range of hydrologic conditions. The results illustrate the interdependence between: watershed and meadow hydrology; bedrock and meadow aquifers; and surface and groundwater flow through the meadow for the modeled scenarios. During the wet season, stream incision resulted in less overland flow and interflow and more meadow recharge causing a net decrease in streamflow and increase in groundwater storage relative to natural meadow conditions. During the dry season, incision resulted in less meadow evapotranspiration and more groundwater discharge to the stream causing a net increase in streamflow and a decrease in groundwater storage relative to natural meadow conditions. In general, for a given meadow setting, the magnitude of change in summer streamflow and long-term change in watershed groundwater storage due to incision will depend on the combined effect of: reduced evapotranspiration in the eroded meadow; induced groundwater recharge; replenishment of dry season groundwater storage depletion in meadow and bedrock aquifers by precipitation during wet years; and groundwater storage depletion that is not replenished by precipitation during wet years.

  3. Changes in irradiated LnSiAlO(N) glasses at a microscopic scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dauce, R. [UMR CNRS 6512, Verres et ceramiques, Institut de Chimie, Universite de Rennes 1, F-35042 Rennes Cedex (France) and CE Cadarache, DEC/SESC, F-13018 St. Paul Lez Durances Cedex (France)]. E-mail: rachel.dauce@freenet.de; Sangleboeuf, J.-C. [LARMAUR, FRE CNRS 2717, Universite de Rennes 1, F-35042 Rennes Cedex (France); Verdier, P. [UMR CNRS 6512, Verres et ceramiques, Institut de Chimie, Universite de Rennes 1, F-35042 Rennes Cedex (France)

    2006-06-15

    Six oxide and oxynitride glasses from three different M-Ln-Si-Al-O(-N) systems (where M is an alkaline-earth and Ln a rare earth) have been irradiated by Kr, Ni and S ions, with different energies varying from 350 to 700 MeV. Neither micro-bubble formation nor crystallisation are evidenced, but the irradiated glasses exhibit an anisotropic deformation under the ion beam. The main crack mode developed during scratching is shifted from radial for the pristine glasses to lateral for all the irradiated glasses. The hardness of each glass decreases when irradiated for all the incident ions used. This decrease appears to be in close relation with the electronic stopping power of the incident particle, and is associated with a change in the indentation mechanism (from normal to anomalous behaviour). The evolution of the scratches in the material depth confirms the change in deformation mechanism and the strong dependence between the hardness of the irradiated material and the electronic stopping power of the incident ion. Three phenomena can be the source of the changes in the properties: the creation of internal stresses during irradiation, the creation of point defects and the cross-linking of the silicate network.

  4. Cross-scale modelling of the climate-change mitigation potential of biochar systems: Global implications of nano-scale processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolf, Dominic; Lehmann, Johannes

    2014-05-01

    With CO2 emissions still tracking the upper bounds of projected emissions scenarios, it is becoming increasingly urgent to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and increasingly likely that restricting future atmospheric GHG concentrations to within safe limits will require an eventual transition towards net negative GHG emissions. Few measures capable of providing negative emissions at a globally-significant scale are currently known. Two that are most often considered include carbon sequestration in biomass and soil, and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In common with these two approaches, biochar also relies on the use of photosynthetically-bound carbon in biomass. But, because biomass and land are limited, it is critical that these resources are efficiently allocated between biomass/soil sequestration, bioenergy, BECCS, biochar, and other competing uses such as food, fiber and biodiversity. In many situations, biochar can offer advantages that may make it the preferred use of a limited biomass supply. These advantages include that: 1) Biochar can provide valuable benefits to agriculture by improving soil fertility and crop production, and reducing fertlizer and irrigation requirements. 2) Biochar is significantly more stable than biomass or other forms of soil carbon, thus lowering the risk of future losses compared to sequestration in biomass or soil organic carbon. 3) Gases and volatiles produced by pyrolysis can be combusted for energy (which may offset fossil fuel emissions). 4) Biochar can further lower GHG emissions by reducing nitrous oxide emissions from soil and by enhancing net primary production. Determining the optimal use of biomass requires that we are able to model not only the climate-change mitigation impact of each option, but also their economic and wider environmental impacts. Thus, what is required is a systems modelling approach that integrates components representing soil biogeochemistry, hydrology, crop

  5. Small scale changes of geochemistry and flow field due to transient heat storage in aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, S.; Boockmeyer, A.; Li, D.; Beyer, C.

    2013-12-01

    Heat exchangers in the subsurface are increasingly installed for transient heat storage due to the need of heating or cooling of buildings as well as the interim storage of heat to compensate for the temporally fluctuating energy production by wind or solar energy. For heat storage to be efficient, high temperatures must be achieved in the subsurface. Significant temporal changes of the soil and groundwater temperatures however effect both the local flow field by temperature dependent fluid parameters as well as reactive mass transport through temperature dependent diffusion coefficients, geochemical reaction rates and mineral equilibria. As the use of heat storage will be concentrated in urban areas, the use of the subsurface for (drinking) water supply and heat storage will typically coincide and a reliable prognosis of the processes occurring is needed. In the present work, the effects of a temporal variation of the groundwater temperature, as induced by a local heat exchanger introduced into a groundwater aquifer, are studied. For this purpose, the coupled non-isothermal groundwater flow, heat transport and reactive mass transport is simulated in the near filed of such a heat exchanger. By explicitly discretizing and incorporating the borehole, the borehole cementation and the heat exchanger tubes, a realistic geometrical and process representation is obtained. The numerical simulation code OpenGeoSys is used in this work, which incorporates the required processes of coupled groundwater flow, heat and mass transport as well as temperature dependent geochemistry. Due to the use of a Finite Element Method, a close representation of the geometric effects can be achieved. Synthetic scenario simulations for typical settings of salt water formations in northern Germany are used to investigate the geochemical effects arising from a high temperature heat storage by quantifying changes in groundwater chemistry and overall reaction rates. This work presents the

  6. Quantifying Forest Spatial Pattern Trends at Multiple Extents: An Approach to Detect Significant Changes at Different Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludovico Frate

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We propose a procedure to detect significant changes in forest spatial patterns and relevant scales. Our approach consists of four sequential steps. First, based on a series of multi-temporal forest maps, a set of geographic windows of increasing extents are extracted. Second, for each extent and date, specific stochastic simulations that replicate real-world spatial pattern characteristics are run. Third, by computing pattern metrics on both simulated and real maps, their empirical distributions and confidence intervals are derived. Finally, multi-temporal scalograms are built for each metric. Based on cover maps (1954, 2011 with a resolution of 10 m we analyze forest pattern changes in a central Apennines (Italy reserve at multiple spatial extents (128, 256 and 512 pixels. We identify three types of multi-temporal scalograms, depending on pattern metric behaviors, describing different dynamics of natural reforestation process. The statistical distribution and variability of pattern metrics at multiple extents offers a new and powerful tool to detect forest variations over time. Similar procedures can (i help to identify significant changes in spatial patterns and provide the bases to relate them to landscape processes; (ii minimize the bias when comparing pattern metrics at a single extent and (iii be extended to other landscapes and scales.

  7. Spatial Pattern and Scale Influence Invader Demographic Response to Simulated Precipitation Change in an Annual Grassland Community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meghan J Skaer Thomason

    Full Text Available It is important to predict which invasive species will benefit from future changes in climate, and thereby identify those invaders that need particular attention and prioritization of management efforts. Because establishment, persistence, and spread determine invasion success, this prediction requires detailed demographic information. Explicit study of the impact of pattern on demographic response is particularly important for species that are naturally patchy, such as the invasive grass, Aegilops triuncialis. In the northern California Coast Range, where climate change may increase or decrease mean annual rainfall, we conducted a field experiment to understand the interaction of climate change and local-scale patterning on the demography of A. triuncialis. We manipulated precipitation (reduced, ambient, or augmented, seed density, and seeding pattern. Demographic and environmental data were collected for three years following initial seeding. Pattern and scale figure prominently in the demographic response of A. triuncialis to precipitation manipulation. Pattern interacts with precipitation and seeding density in its influence on per-plant seed output. Although per-plot seed production was highest when seeds were not aggregated, per-plant seed output was higher in aggregated patches. Results suggest aggregation of invasive A. triuncialis reduces the detrimental impact of interspecific competition in its invaded community, and that interspecific competition per se has a stronger impact than intraspecific competition.

  8. The fossil record as a tool in cyclo stratigraphy: the incidence of Milankovitch-scale palaeoenvironmental changes on palaeocommunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez-Tovar, F. J.

    2013-06-01

    Cyclo stratigraphic analysis at the Milankovitch scale has to date mainly been approached through the sedimentary record, although palaeontological data (the fossil record) is known to provide useful evidence of orbital-scale cycles of precession, obliquity and eccentricity. Orbit ally induced marine and terrestrial palaeoenvironmental changes determine variable responses on the part of the resident communities. Aside from the disruption of communities, complex evolutionary responses including stasis, speciation and extinction phenomena may take place. Cyclic variations in the marine past-biota at the community level, or in some particular taxa, have often been associated with orbit ally induced changes in palaeoenvironmental parameters. Cyclo stratigraphic research into foraminifera, radiol aria and nanno fossil data, mainly from Cretaceous sediments, may contribute significantly to our understanding of the planktonic community's response, whereas the response of the benthic community, deriving mainly from benthic foraminifera and trace fossils, has been studied to a lesser extent. Recognition of Milankovitch cycles from terrestrial palaeocommunities is relatively scarce and based mainly on the study of Pliocene-Miocene pollen assemblages. Astronomical forced climate changes determine well known variations in the distribution of terrestrial vegetation, but can also affect the terrestrial animal community, including hominid populations (migration, dispersion and colonisation). (Author)

  9. Mitigating and adapting to climate change: multi-functional and multi-scale assessment of green urban infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demuzere, M; Orru, K; Heidrich, O; Olazabal, E; Geneletti, D; Orru, H; Bhave, A G; Mittal, N; Feliu, E; Faehnle, M

    2014-12-15

    In order to develop climate resilient urban areas and reduce emissions, several opportunities exist starting from conscious planning and design of green (and blue) spaces in these landscapes. Green urban infrastructure has been regarded as beneficial, e.g. by balancing water flows, providing thermal comfort. This article explores the existing evidence on the contribution of green spaces to climate change mitigation and adaptation services. We suggest a framework of ecosystem services for systematizing the evidence on the provision of bio-physical benefits (e.g. CO2 sequestration) as well as social and psychological benefits (e.g. improved health) that enable coping with (adaptation) or reducing the adverse effects (mitigation) of climate change. The multi-functional and multi-scale nature of green urban infrastructure complicates the categorization of services and benefits, since in reality the interactions between various benefits are manifold and appear on different scales. We will show the relevance of the benefits from green urban infrastructures on three spatial scales (i.e. city, neighborhood and site specific scales). We will further report on co-benefits and trade-offs between the various services indicating that a benefit could in turn be detrimental in relation to other functions. The manuscript identifies avenues for further research on the role of green urban infrastructure, in different types of cities, climates and social contexts. Our systematic understanding of the bio-physical and social processes defining various services allows targeting stressors that may hamper the provision of green urban infrastructure services in individual behavior as well as in wider planning and environmental management in urban areas. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Bedform migration in steep channels: from local avalanches to large scale changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mettra, F.; Heyman, J.; Ancey, C.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies have emphasized the strength of bedload transport fluctuations in steep streams, especially at low and intermediate transport conditions (relative to the threshold of incipient motion). The origins of these fluctuations, which appear on a wide range of time scales, are still not well understood. In this study, we present the data obtained from a 2D idealized laboratory experiment with the objective of simultaneously recording the channel bed evolution and bedload transport rate at a high temporal resolution. A 3-m long by 8-cm wide transparent flume filled with well-sorted natural gravel (d50=6.5 mm) was used. An efficient technique using accelerometers has been developed to record the arrival time of every particle at the outlet of the flume for long experimental durations (up to a few days). In addition, bed elevation was monitored using cameras filming from the side of the channel, allowing the observation of global aggradation/degradation as well as bedform migration. The experimental parameters were the water discharge, the flume inclination (from 2° to 5°) and the constant feeding rate of sediments. Large-scale bed evolution showed successive aggradation and rapid degradation periods. Indeed, the measured global channel slope, i.e. mean slope over the flume length, fluctuated continuously within a range sometimes wider than 1° (experimental parameters were constant over the entire run). The analysis of these fluctuations provides evidence that steep channels behave like metastable systems, similarly to grain piles. The metastable effects increased for steeper channels and lower transport conditions. In this measurement campaign, we mainly observed upstream-migrating antidunes. For each run, various antidune heights and celerities were measured. On average, the mean antidune migration rate increased with decreasing channel slope and increasing sediment feeding rate. Relatively rare tall and fast-moving antidunes appeared more frequently at high

  11. Post-Disturbance Stability of Fish Assemblages Measured at Coarse Taxonomic Resolution Masks Change at Finer Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Emslie, Michael J; Richards, Zoe T

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying changes to coral reef fish assemblages in the wake of cyclonic disturbances is challenging due to spatial variability of damage inherent in such events. Often, fish abundance appears stable at one spatial scale (e.g. reef-wide), but exhibits substantial change at finer scales (e.g. site-specific decline or increase). Taxonomic resolution also plays a role; overall stability at coarse taxonomic levels (e.g. family) may mask species-level turnover. Here we document changes to reef fish communities after severe Tropical Cyclone Ita crossed Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Coral and reef fish surveys were conducted concurrently before and after the cyclone at four levels of exposure to the prevailing weather. Coral cover declined across all exposures except sheltered sites, with the largest decline at exposed sites. There was no significant overall reduction in the total density, biomass and species richness of reef fishes between 2011 and 2015, but individual fish taxa (families and species) changed in complex and unpredictable ways. For example, more families increased in density and biomass than decreased following Cyclone Ita, particularly at exposed sites whilst more fish families declined at lagoon sites even though coral cover did not decline. All sites lost biomass of several damselfish species, and at most sites there was an increase in macroinvertivores and grazers. Overall, these results suggest that the degree of change measured at coarse taxonomic levels masked high species-level turnover, although other potential explanations include that there was no impact of the storm, fish assemblages were impacted but underwent rapid recovery or that there is a time lag before the full impacts become apparent. This study confirms that in high-complexity, high diversity ecosystems such as coral reefs, species level analyses are essential to adequately capture the consequences of disturbance events.

  12. Global Climate Forcing from Albedo Change Caused by Large-scale Deforestation and Reforestation: Quantification and Attribution of Geographic Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Tong; Williams, Christopher A.; Ghimire, Bardan; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Schaaf, Crystal

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies widely across the globe due to a range of factors including forest type, snow cover, and insolation, but resulting geographic variation remain spoorly described and has been largely based on model assessments. This study provides an observation-based approach to quantify local and global radiative forcings from large-scale deforestation and reforestation and further examines mechanisms that result in the spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing. We incorporate a new spatially and temporally explicit land cover-specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product). Spatial variation in radiative forcing was attributed to four mechanisms, including the change in snow-covered albedo, change in snow-free albedo, snow cover fraction, and incoming solar radiation. We find an albedo-only radiative forcing (RF) of -0.819 W m(exp -2) if year 2000 forests were completely deforested and converted to croplands. Albedo RF from global reforestation of present-day croplands to recover year 1700 forests is estimated to be 0.161 W m)exp -2). Snow-cover fraction is identified as the primary factor in determining the spatial variation of radiative forcing in winter, while the magnitude of the change in snow-free albedo is the primary factor determining variations in summertime RF. Findings reinforce the notion that, for conifers at the snowier high latitudes, albedo RF diminishes the warming from forest loss and the cooling from forest gain more so than for other forest types, latitudes, and climate settings.

  13. A local scale assessment of the climate change sensitivity of snow in Pyrenean ski resorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesado, Cristina; Pons, Marc; Vilella, Marc; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio

    2016-04-01

    The Pyrenees host one of the largest ski area in Europe after the Alps that encompasses the mountain area of the south of France, the north of Spain and the small country of Andorra. In this region, winter tourism is one of the main source of income and driving force of local development on these mountain communities. However, this activity was identified as one of the most vulnerable to a future climate change due to the projected decrease of natural snow and snowmaking capacity. However, within the same ski resorts different areas showed to have a very different vulnerability within the same resort based on the geographic features of the area and the technical management of the slopes. Different areas inside a same ski resort could have very different vulnerability to future climate change based on aspect, steepness or elevation. Furthermore, the technical management of ski resorts, such as snowmaking and grooming were identified to have a significant impact on the response of the snowpack in a warmer climate. In this line, two different ski resorts were deeply analyzed taken into account both local geographical features as well as the effect of the technical management of the runs. Principal Component Analysis was used to classify the main areas of the resort based on the geographic features (elevation, aspect and steepness) and identify the main representative areas with different local features. Snow energy and mass balance was simulated in the different representative areas using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) assuming different magnitudes of climate warming (increases of 2°C and 4°C in the mean winter temperature) both in natural conditions and assuming technical management of the slopes. Theses first results showed the different sensitivity and vulnerability to climate changes based on the local geography of the resort and the management of the ski runs, showing the importance to include these variables when analyzing the local vulnerability

  14. Linking above and belowground responses to global change at community and ecosystem scales.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antoninka, Anita [Northern Arizona University; Wolf, Julie [Northern Arizona University; Bowker, Matt [Northern Arizona University; Classen, Aimee T [ORNL; JohnsonPhD, Dr Nancy C [Northern Arizona University

    2009-01-01

    Cryptic belowground organisms are difficult to observe and their responses to global changes are not well understood. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that interactions among above- and belowground communities may mediate ecosystem responses to global change. We used grassland mesocosms to manipulate the abundance of one important group of soil organisms, arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, and to study community and ecosystem responses to CO2 and N enrichment. After two growing seasons, biomass responses of plant communities were recorded, and soil community responses were measured using microscopy, phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) and community-level physiological profiles (CLPP). Ecosystem responses were examined by measuring net primary production (NPP), evapotranspiration, total soil organic matter (SOM), and extractable mineral N. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the causal relationships among treatments and response variables. We found that while CO2 and N tended to directly impact ecosystem functions (evapotranspiration and NPP, respectively), AM fungi indirectly impacted ecosystem functions by strongly influencing the composition of plant and soil communities. For example, the presence of AM fungi had a strong influence on other root and soil fungi and soil bacteria. We found that the mycotrophic status of the dominant plant species in the mesocosms determined whether the presence of AM fungi increased or decreased NPP. Mycotrophic grasses dominated the mesocosm communities during the first growing season, and thus, the mycorrhizal treatments had the highest NPP. In contrast, non-mycotrophic forbs were dominant during the second growing season and thus, the mycorrhizal treatments had the lowest NPP. The composition of the plant community strongly influenced soil N; and the composition of the soil organisms strongly influenced SOM accumulation in the mesocosms. These results show how linkages between above- and belowground communities

  15. Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McJeon, Haewon; Edmonds, Jae; Bauer, Nico; Clarke, Leon; Fisher, Brian; Flannery, Brian P; Hilaire, Jérôme; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Mi, Raymond; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Holger; Tavoni, Massimo

    2014-10-23

    The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from -2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.

  16. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

    2016-12-01

    Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC

  17. Symptom changes in five dimensions of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale in refractory psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, Todd S; Jung, Kwanghee; Smith, Geoffrey N; Hwang, Heungsun; Barr, Alasdair M; Procyshyn, Ric M; Flynn, Sean W; van der Gaag, Mark; Honer, William G

    2014-12-01

    Refractory psychosis units currently have little information regarding which symptoms profiles should be expected to respond to treatment. In the current study, we provide this information using structural equation modeling of Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) ratings at admission and discharge on a sample of 610 patients admitted to a treatment refractory psychosis program at a Canadian tertiary care unit between 1990 and 2011. The hypothesized five-dimensional structure of the PANSS fit the data well at both admission and discharge, and the latent variable scores are reported as a function of symptom dimension and diagnostic category. The results suggest that, overall, positive symptoms (POS) responded to treatment better than all other symptoms dimensions, but for the schizoaffective and bipolar groups, greater response on POS was observed relative to the schizophrenia and major depression groups. The major depression group showed the most improvement on negative symptoms and emotional distress, and the bipolar group showed the most improvement on disorganization. Schizophrenia was distinct from schizoaffective disorder in showing reduced treatment response on all symptom dimensions. These results can assist refractory psychosis units by providing information on how PANSS symptom dimensions respond to treatment and how this depends on diagnostic category.

  18. Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Roberts, David R; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Nielsen, Scott E; Stralberg, Diana; Hamann, Andreas; Mcrae, Brad H; Wang, Tongli

    2017-11-01

    As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at

  19. Fine-scale patterns of vegetation assembly in the monitoring of changes in coastal sand-dune landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Honrado

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Understanding dune ecosystem responses to multi-scale environmental changes can provide the framework for reliable forecasts and cost-efficient protocols for detecting shifts in prevailing coastal dynamics. Based on the hypothesis that stress and disturbance interact as primary community controls in coastal dunes, we studied the fine-scale floristic assembly of foredune vegetation, in its relation to topography, along regional and local environmental gradients in the 200 km long coastline of northern Portugal, encompassing a major biogeographic transition in western Europe. Thirty topographic profiles perpendicular to the shoreline were recorded at ten sites along the regional climate gradient, and vegetation was sampled by recording the frequency of plant species along those profiles. Quantitative topographic attributes of vegetated dune profiles (e.g. length or height exhibited wide variations relatable to differences in prevailing coastal dynamics. Metrics of taxonomic diversity (e.g. total species richness and its additive beta component and of the functional composition of vegetation were highly correlated to attributes of dune topography. Under transgressive dynamics, vegetation profiles have fewer species, increased dominance, lower turnover rates, and lower total vegetation cover. These changes may drive a decrease in structural and functional diversity, with important consequences for resistance, resilience and other ecosystem properties. Moreover, differences in both vegetation assembly (in meta-stable dunes and response to increased disturbance (in eroding dunes between distinct biogeographic contexts highlight a possible decline in facilitation efficiency under extreme physical stress (i.e. under Mediterranean climate and support the significance of functional approaches in the study of local ecosystem responses to disturbance along regional gradients. Our results strongly suggest that assessing fine-scale community assembly can

  20. The Impact of Long-Term Climate Change on Nitrogen Runoff at the Watershed Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorley, J.; Duffy, C.; Arenas Amado, A.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of agricultural runoff is a major concern for water quality of mid-western streams. This concern is largely due to excessive use of agricultural fertilizer, a major source of nutrients in many Midwestern watersheds. In order to improve water quality in these watersheds, understanding the long-term trends in nutrient concentration and discharge is an important water quality problem. This study attempts to analyze the role of long-term temperature and precipitation on nitrate runoff in an agriculturally dominated watershed in Iowa. The approach attempts to establish the concentration-discharge (C-Q) signature for the watershed using time series analysis, frequency analysis and model simulation. The climate data is from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), model GFDL-CM3 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory Coupled Model 3). The historical water quality data was made available by the IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering at the University of Iowa for the clear creek watershed (CCW). The CCW is located in east-central Iowa. The CCW is representative of many Midwestern watersheds with humid-continental climate with predominantly agricultural land use. The study shows how long-term climate changes in temperature and precipitation affects the C-Q dynamics and how a relatively simple approach to data analysis and model projections can be applied to best management practices at the site.

  1. Adaptive dynamics on an environmental gradient that changes over a geological time-scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortelius, Mikael; Geritz, Stefan; Gyllenberg, Mats; Toivonen, Jaakko

    2015-07-07

    The standard adaptive dynamics framework assumes two timescales, i.e. fast population dynamics and slow evolutionary dynamics. We further assume a third timescale, which is even slower than the evolutionary timescale. We call this the geological timescale and we assume that slow climatic change occurs within this timescale. We study the evolution of our model population over this very slow geological timescale with bifurcation plots of the standard adaptive dynamics framework. The bifurcation parameter being varied describes the abiotic environment that changes over the geological timescale. We construct evolutionary trees over the geological timescale and observe both gradual phenotypic evolution and punctuated branching events. We concur with the established notion that branching of a monomorphic population on an environmental gradient only happens when the gradient is not too shallow and not too steep. However, we show that evolution within the habitat can produce polymorphic populations that inhabit steep gradients. What is necessary is that the environmental gradient at some point in time is such that the initial branching of the monomorphic population can occur. We also find that phenotypes adapted to environments in the middle of the existing environmental range are more likely to branch than phenotypes adapted to extreme environments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Potential changes in the extreme climate conditions at the regional scale: from observed data to modelling approaches and towards probabilistic climate change information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gachon, P.; Radojevic, M.; Harding, A.; Saad, C.; Nguyen, V.T.V.

    2008-01-01

    The changes in the characteristics of extreme climate conditions are one of the most critical challenges for all ecosystems, human being and infrastructure, in the context of the on-going global climate change. However, extremes information needed for impacts studies cannot be obtained directly from coarse scale global climate models (GCMs), due mainly to their difficulties to incorporate regional scale feedbacks and processes responsible in part for the occurrence, intensity and duration of extreme events. Downscaling approaches, namely statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques (i.e. SD and RCM), have emerged as useful tools to develop high resolution climate change information, in particular for extremes, as those are theoretically more capable to take into account regional/local forcings and their feedbacks from large scale influences as they are driven with GCM synoptic variables. Nevertheless, in spite of the potential added values from downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical), a rigorous assessment of these methods are needed as inherent difficulties to simulate extremes are still present. In this paper, different series of RCM and SD simulations using three different GCMs are presented and evaluated with respect to observed values over the current period and over a river basin in southern Quebec, with future ensemble runs, i.e. centered over 2050s (i.e. 2041-2070 period using the SRES A2 emission scenario). Results suggest that the downscaling performance over the baseline period significantly varies between the two downscaling techniques and over various seasons with more regular reliable simulated values with SD technique for temperature than for RCM runs, while both approaches produced quite similar temperature changes in the future from median values with more divergence for extremes. For precipitation, less accurate information is obtained compared to observed data, and with more differences among models with higher uncertainties in the

  3. Morphology changes upon scaling a high-efficiency, solution-processed solar cell

    KAUST Repository

    Ro, Hyun Wook

    2016-08-02

    Solution processing via roll-to-roll (R2R) coating promises a low cost, low thermal budget, sustainable revolution for the production of solar cells. Poly[(5,6-difluoro-2,1,3-benzothiadiazol-4,7-diyl)-alt-(3,3′′′-di(2-octyldodecyl)-2,2′;5′,2′′;5′′,2′′′-quaterthiophen-5,5-diyl)], PffBT4T-2OD, has recently been shown to achieve high power conversion efficiency (>10%) paired with multiple acceptors when thick films are spun-coat from hot solutions. We present detailed morphology studies of PffBT4T-2OD based bulk heterojunction films deposited by the volume manufacturing compatible techniques of blade-coating and slot-die coating. Significant aspects of the film morphology, the average crystal domain orientation and the distribution of the characteristic phase separation length scales, are remarkably different when deposited by the scalable techniques vs. spun-coat. Yet, we find that optimized blade-coated devices achieve PCE > 9.5%, nearly the same as spun-coat. These results challenge some widely accepted propositions regarding what is an optimal BHJ morphology and suggest the hypothesis that diversity in the morphology that supports high performance may be a characteristic of manufacturable systems, those that maintain performance when coated thicker than ≈200 nm. In situ measurements reveal the key differences in the solidification routes for spin- and blade-coating leading to the distinct film structures. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  4. Morphology changes upon scaling a high-efficiency, solution-processed solar cell

    KAUST Repository

    Ro, Hyun Wook; Downing, Jonathan M.; Engmann, Sebastian; Herzing, Andrew A.; DeLongchamp, Dean M.; Richter, Lee J.; Mukherjee, Subhrangsu; Ade, Harald; Abdelsamie, Maged; Jagadamma, Lethy Krishnan; Amassian, Aram; Liu, Yuhang; Yan, He

    2016-01-01

    Solution processing via roll-to-roll (R2R) coating promises a low cost, low thermal budget, sustainable revolution for the production of solar cells. Poly[(5,6-difluoro-2,1,3-benzothiadiazol-4,7-diyl)-alt-(3,3′′′-di(2-octyldodecyl)-2,2′;5′,2′′;5′′,2′′′-quaterthiophen-5,5-diyl)], PffBT4T-2OD, has recently been shown to achieve high power conversion efficiency (>10%) paired with multiple acceptors when thick films are spun-coat from hot solutions. We present detailed morphology studies of PffBT4T-2OD based bulk heterojunction films deposited by the volume manufacturing compatible techniques of blade-coating and slot-die coating. Significant aspects of the film morphology, the average crystal domain orientation and the distribution of the characteristic phase separation length scales, are remarkably different when deposited by the scalable techniques vs. spun-coat. Yet, we find that optimized blade-coated devices achieve PCE > 9.5%, nearly the same as spun-coat. These results challenge some widely accepted propositions regarding what is an optimal BHJ morphology and suggest the hypothesis that diversity in the morphology that supports high performance may be a characteristic of manufacturable systems, those that maintain performance when coated thicker than ≈200 nm. In situ measurements reveal the key differences in the solidification routes for spin- and blade-coating leading to the distinct film structures. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

  5. Annual changes in abundance of non-indigenous marine benthos on a very large spatial scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Mads S.; Wernberg, Thomas; Stæhr, Peter Anton

    2008-01-01

    to quantify annual nation-wide changes in abundance of non-indigenous soft-bottom invertebrates (from grab samples) and hard-bottom macroalgae (from diver based percent cover values) in Denmark. Based on criteria of being either abundant (constituting >1% of the entire Danish assemblages) or increasing...... in abundance, NIMS of particular interest were found to be Mya arenaria and Bonemaissonia hamifera (abundant), Crepidula fornicata, Ensis americanus, Neanthes succinea (a cryptogenic species), Marenzelleria spp. (increasing), and Sargassum muticum (abundant and increasing). In addition, new and/or warm......-water eurohaline NIMS such as Gracilaria vermiculophylla and Crassostrea gigas, should be given attention as these species are expected to increase in the future. Finally, species not included in existing monitoring programs (hard-bottom estuarine invertebrates, fish, parasites, highly mobile species) should also...

  6. Full Scale Experiences with Didactic Changes in Distance Education in Master of Industrial Information Technology (MII)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helbo, Jan; Knudsen, Morten Haack; Borch, Ole M.

    2005-01-01

    students. For the first time we have deviated from the normal Aalborg University Problem Based Learning model by separating course study and project work. The feedback from the students was very positive but we did expect that the collaboration and discussion on the internet would increase as well......-campus engineering program based on project organized collaborative learning to the technology supported distance education program failed. Despite of many miner didactic changes we did not obtain the same self regulating learning effect in the group work among the off-campus students as is the case for oncampus....... Questionnaires, discussions and measurements of the internet activities show results which are contradictory compared to expectations....

  7. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  8. Effect of dairy wastewater on changes in COD fractions in technical-scale SBR type reactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struk-Sokołowska, Joanna; Rodziewicz, Joanna; Mielcarek, Artur

    2017-04-01

    The annual global production of milk is approximately 630,000 million litres and the volume of generated dairy wastewater accounts for 3.2 m 3 ·m -3 product. Dairy wastewater is characterized by a high load of chemical oxygen demand (COD). In many wastewater plants dairy wastewater and municipal wastewater are co-treated. The effect of dairy wastewater contribution on COD fraction changes in municipal sewage which has been treated with a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) in three wastewater treatment plants in north-east Poland is presented. In these plants the real contribution of dairy wastewater was 10, 13 and 17%. In raw wastewater, S S fraction (readily biodegradable dissolved organic matter) was dominant and ranged from 38.3 to 62.6%. In the effluent, S S fraction was not noted, which is indicative of consumption by microorganisms. The presence of dairy wastewater in municipal sewage does not cause changes in the content of the X I fraction (insoluble fractions of non-biodegradable organic matter). SBR effluents were dominated by non-biodegradable dissolved organic matter S I , which from 57.7 to 61.7%. In raw wastewater S I ranged from 1.0 to 4.6%. X s fraction (slowly biodegradable non-soluble organic matter) in raw wastewater ranged from 24.6 to 45.5% while in treated wastewater it ranged from 28.6 to 30.8%. In the control object (fourth wastewater plant) which does not process dairy wastewater, the S S , S I , X s and X I fraction in inflow was 28.7, 2.4, 51.7 and 17.2% respectively. In the effluent the S S , S I , X s and X I fraction was below 0.1, 33.6, 50.0 and 16.4% respectively.

  9. Spontaneous and Flow-Driven Interfacial Phase Change: Dynamics of Microemulsion Formation at the Pore Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagavifar, Mohsen; Xu, Ke; Jang, Sung Hyun; Balhoff, Matthew T; Pope, Gary A

    2017-11-14

    The dynamic behavior of microemulsion-forming water-oil-amphiphiles mixtures is investigated in a 2.5D micromodel. The equilibrium phase behavior of such mixtures is well-understood in terms of macroscopic phase transitions. However, what is less understood and where experimental data are lacking is the coupling between the phase change and the bulk flow. Herein, we study the flow of an aqueous surfactant solution-oil mixture in porous media and analyze the dependence of phase formation and spatial phase configurations on the bulk flow rate. We find that a microemulsion forms instantaneously as a boundary layer at the initial surface of contact between the surfactant solution and oil. The boundary layer is temporally continuous because of the imposed convection. In addition to the imposed flow, we observe spontaneous pulsed Marangoni flows that drag the microemulsion and surfactant solution into the oil stream, forming large (macro)emulsion droplets. The formation of the microemulsion phase at the interface distinguishes the situation from that of the more common Marangoni flow with only two phases present. Additionally, an emulsion forms via liquid-liquid nucleation or the Ouzo effect (i.e., spontaneous emulsification) at low flow rates and via mechanical mixing at high flow rates. With regard to multiphase flow, contrary to the common belief that the microemulsion is the wetting liquid, we observe that the minor oil phase wets the solid surface. We show that a layered flow pattern is formed because of the out-of-equilibrium phase behavior at high volumetric flow rates (order of 2 m/day) where advection is much faster than the diffusive interfacial mass transfer and transverse mixing, which promote equilibrium behavior. At lower flow rates (order of 30 cm/day), however, the dynamic and equilibrium phase behaviors are well-correlated. These results clearly show that the phase change influences the macroscale flow behavior.

  10. Multi-scales analysis of the global change impact on the diversity of the aphid communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulle, M.

    2007-01-01

    The primary objective of this project is to investigate the effects of global change on the biodiversity of aphid communities in Western Europe. Biodiversity has been examined at 3 levels: total number of species, phenology and reproductive strategy. Data were provided by EXAMINE, the European suction traps network which has been now operating for 35 years. 392 different species have been identified. At each location, total number of species has been regularly increasing, one additional species being caught every 1 or 2 years depending on location. This is due to introduced species but also to warming which favours rare species. No general trend of increasing density has been detected, but phenological earliness of almost all species (annual date of first appearance in suction traps) is strongly correlated with temperature and especially with mean daily temperature (during more or less long periods of time lying principally in February and March) or number of days below 0 C. Strong relationships between aphid phenology and environmental variables have been found and there is strong discrimination between species with different life cycle strategies, and between species feeding on herbs and trees, suggesting the possible value of trait-based groupings in predicting responses to environmental changes. These preliminary results suggest that 1) biodiversity has increased during the last decades; 2) there is a pool of species among which some of them reach a detectable density only during years where temperatures are high enough; 3) a set of newly introduced species succeed in settling being favoured by warming and 4) phenology of aphids is expected to advance and their abundance to increase with temperature, and the possible role of natural enemies to regulate abundant species is discussed. (author)

  11. A global fingerprint of macro-scale changes in urban structure from 1999 to 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frolking, Steve; Milliman, Tom; Seto, Karen C; Friedl, Mark A

    2013-01-01

    Urban population now exceeds rural population globally, and 60–80% of global energy consumption by households, businesses, transportation, and industry occurs in urban areas. There is growing evidence that built-up infrastructure contributes to carbon emissions inertia, and that investments in infrastructure today have delayed climate cost in the future. Although the United Nations statistics include data on urban population by country and select urban agglomerations, there are no empirical data on built-up infrastructure for a large sample of cities. Here we present the first study to examine changes in the structure of the world’s largest cities from 1999 to 2009. Combining data from two space-borne sensors—backscatter power (PR) from NASA’s SeaWinds microwave scatterometer, and nighttime lights (NL) from NOAA’s defense meteorological satellite program/operational linescan system (DMSP/OLS)—we report large increases in built-up infrastructure stock worldwide and show that cities are expanding both outward and upward. Our results reveal previously undocumented recent and rapid changes in urban areas worldwide that reflect pronounced shifts in the form and structure of cities. Increases in built-up infrastructure are highest in East Asian cities, with Chinese cities rapidly expanding their material infrastructure stock in both height and extent. In contrast, Indian cities are primarily building out and not increasing in verticality. This new dataset will help characterize the structure and form of cities, and ultimately improve our understanding of how cities affect regional-to-global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. (letter)

  12. Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin-scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ficklin, Darren L; Stewart, Iris T; Maurer, Edwin P

    2013-01-01

    In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21(st) century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21(st) century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of -100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of -100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could

  13. EFFECTS OF PORE STRUCTURE CHANGE AND MULTI-SCALE HETEROGENEITY ON CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT AND REACTION RATE UPSCALING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindquist, W. Brent; Jones, Keith W.; Um, Wooyong; Rockhold, mark; Peters, Catherine A.; Celia, Michael A.

    2013-02-15

    This project addressed the scaling of geochemical reactions to core and field scales, and the interrelationship between reaction rates and flow in porous media. We targeted reactive transport problems relevant to the Hanford site - specifically the reaction of highly caustic, radioactive waste solutions with subsurface sediments, and the immobilization of 90Sr and 129I through mineral incorporation and passive flow blockage, respectively. We addressed the correlation of results for pore-scale fluid-soil interaction with field-scale fluid flow, with the specific goals of (i) predicting attenuation of radionuclide concentration; (ii) estimating changes in flow rates through changes of soil permeabilities; and (iii) estimating effective reaction rates. In supplemental work, we also simulated reactive transport systems relevant to geologic carbon sequestration. As a whole, this research generated a better understanding of reactive transport in porous media, and resulted in more accurate methods for reaction rate upscaling and improved prediction of permeability evolution. These scientific advancements will ultimately lead to better tools for management and remediation of DOE’s legacy waste problems. We established three key issues of reactive flow upscaling, and organized this project in three corresponding thrust areas. 1) Reactive flow experiments. The combination of mineral dissolution and precipitation alters pore network structure and the subsequent flow velocities, thereby creating a complex interaction between reaction and transport. To examine this phenomenon, we conducted controlled laboratory experimentation using reactive flow-through columns. Results and Key Findings: Four reactive column experiments (S1, S3, S4, S5) have been completed in which simulated tank waste leachage (STWL) was reacted with pure quartz sand, with and without Aluminum. The STWL is a caustic solution that dissolves quartz. Because Al is a necessary element in the formation of

  14. The impact of land use change and hydroclimatic variability on landscape connectivity dynamics across surface water networks at subcontinental scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulbure, M. G.; Bishop-Taylor, R.; Broich, M.

    2017-12-01

    Land use (LU) change and hydroclimatic variability affect spatiotemporal landscape connectivity dynamics, important for species movement and dispersal. Despite the fact that LU change can strongly influence dispersal potential over time, prior research has only focused on the impacts of dynamic changes in the distribution of potential habitats. We used 8 time-steps of historical LU together with a Landsat-derived time-series of surface water habitat dynamics (1986-2011) over the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a region with extreme hydroclimatic variability, impacted by LU changes. To assess how changing LU and hydroclimatic variability affect landscape connectivity across time, we compared 4 scenarios, namely one where both climate and LU are dynamic over time, one where climate is kept steady (i.e. a median surface water extent layer), and two scenarios where LU is kept steady (i.e. resistance values associated with the most recent or the first LU layer). We used circuit theory to assign landscape features with `resistance' costs and graph theory network analysis, with surface water habitats as `nodes' connected by dispersal paths or `edges' Findings comparing a dry and an average season show high differences in number of nodes (14581 vs 21544) and resistance distances. The combined effect of LU change and landscape wetness was lower than expected, likely a function of the large, MDB-wide, aggregation scale. Spatially explicit analyses are expected to identify areas where the synergistic effect of LU change and landscape wetness greatly reduce or increase landscape connectivity, as well as areas where the two effects cancel each other out.

  15. Time-scale invariant changes in atmospheric radon concentration and crustal strain prior to a large earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kawada

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Prior to large earthquakes (e.g. 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan, an increase in the atmospheric radon concentration is observed, and this increase in the rate follows a power-law of the time-to-earthquake (time-to-failure. This phenomenon corresponds to the increase in the radon migration in crust and the exhalation into atmosphere. An irreversible thermodynamic model including time-scale invariance clarifies that the increases in the pressure of the advecting radon and permeability (hydraulic conductivity in the crustal rocks are caused by the temporal changes in the power-law of the crustal strain (or cumulative Benioff strain, which is associated with damage evolution such as microcracking or changing porosity. As the result, the radon flux and the atmospheric radon concentration can show a temporal power-law increase. The concentration of atmospheric radon can be used as a proxy for the seismic precursory processes associated with crustal dynamics.

  16. Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

  17. Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Land Use Land Cover Change Driven by Large Scale Land Transactions in Cambodia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, A.; Smith, J. C.; Hijmans, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Since mid-1990s, the Cambodian government granted nearly 300 `Economic Land Concessions' (ELCs), occupying approximately 2.3 million ha to foreign and domestic organizations (primarily agribusinesses). The majority of Cambodian ELC deals have been issued in areas of both relatively low population density and low agricultural productivity, dominated by smallholder production. These regions often contain highly biodiverse areas, thereby increasing the ecological cost associated with land clearing for extractive purposes. These large-scale land transactions have also resulted in substantial and rapid changes in land-use patterns and agriculture practices by smallholder farmers. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of land use change associated with large-scale land transactions across Cambodia using multi-temporal multi-reolution remote sensing data. We identified major regions of deforestation during the last two decades using Landsat archive, global forest change data (2000-2014) and georeferenced database of ELC deals. We then mapped the deforestation and land clearing within ELC boundaries as well as areas bordering or near ELCs to quantify the impact of ELCs on local communities. Using time-series from MODIS Vegetation Indices products for the study period, we also estimated the time period over which any particular ELC deal initiated its proposed activity. We found evidence of similar patterns of land use change outside the boundaries of ELC deals which may be associated with i) illegal land encroachments by ELCs and/or ii) new agricultural practices adopted by local farmers near ELC boundaries. We also detected significant time gaps between ELC deal granting dates and initiation of land clearing for ELC purposes. Interestingly, we also found that not all designated areas for ELCs were put into effect indicating the possible proliferation of speculative land deals. This study demonstrates the potential of remote sensing techniques

  18. Long-term change of potential evapotranspiration over Southwest China and teleconnections with large-scale climate anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, B.; Chen, X.; Li, Y.; Chen, Z.

    2017-12-01

    bstract: Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a sensitive factor for atmospheric and ecological systems over Southwest China which is characterized by intensive karst geomorphology and fragile environment. Based on daily meteorological data of 94 stations during 1961-2013, the spatiotemporal characteristics of PET are analyzed. The changing characteristics of local meteorological factors and large-scale climatic features are also investigated to explain the potential reasons for changing PET. Study results are as follows: (1) The high-value center of PET with a mean value of 1097 mm/a locates in the south mainly resulted from the regional climatic features of higher air temperature (TEM), sunshine duration (SSD) and lower relative humidity (RHU); and the low-value center of PET with a mean value of 831 mm/a is in the northeast primarily attributed to higher RHU and weaker SSD. (2) Annual PET decreases at -10.04 mm decade-1 before the year 2000 but increases at 50.65 mm decade-1 thereafter; and the dominant factors of PET change are SSD, RHU and wind speed (WIN), with the relative contributions of 33.29%, 25.42% and 22.16%, respectively. (3) The abrupt change of PET in 2000 is strongly dominated by large-scale climatic anomalies. The strengthened 850hPa geostrophic wind (0.51 ms-1 decade-1), weakened total cloud cover (-2.25 % decade-1) and 500hPa water vapor flux (-2.85 % decade-1) have provided advantageous dynamic, thermal and dry conditions for PET over Southwest China since the 21st century.

  19. Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance

  20. The Ophidia Stack: Toward Large Scale, Big Data Analytics Experiments for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, S.; Williams, D. N.; D'Anca, A.; Nassisi, P.; Aloisio, G.

    2015-12-01

    The Ophidia project is a research effort on big data analytics facing scientific data analysis challenges in multiple domains (e.g. climate change). It provides a "datacube-oriented" framework responsible for atomically processing and manipulating scientific datasets, by providing a common way to run distributive tasks on large set of data fragments (chunks). Ophidia provides declarative, server-side, and parallel data analysis, jointly with an internal storage model able to efficiently deal with multidimensional data and a hierarchical data organization to manage large data volumes. The project relies on a strong background on high performance database management and On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) systems to manage large scientific datasets. The Ophidia analytics platform provides several data operators to manipulate datacubes (about 50), and array-based primitives (more than 100) to perform data analysis on large scientific data arrays. To address interoperability, Ophidia provides multiple server interfaces (e.g. OGC-WPS). From a client standpoint, a Python interface enables the exploitation of the framework into Python-based eco-systems/applications (e.g. IPython) and the straightforward adoption of a strong set of related libraries (e.g. SciPy, NumPy). The talk will highlight a key feature of the Ophidia framework stack: the "Analytics Workflow Management System" (AWfMS). The Ophidia AWfMS coordinates, orchestrates, optimises and monitors the execution of multiple scientific data analytics and visualization tasks, thus supporting "complex analytics experiments". Some real use cases related to the CMIP5 experiment will be discussed. In particular, with regard to the "Climate models intercomparison data analysis" case study proposed in the EU H2020 INDIGO-DataCloud project, workflows related to (i) anomalies, (ii) trend, and (iii) climate change signal analysis will be presented. Such workflows will be distributed across multiple sites - according to the

  1. Nanometer-scale temperature imaging for independent observation of Joule and Peltier effects in phase change memory devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosse, Kyle L; Pop, Eric; King, William P

    2014-09-01

    This paper reports a technique for independent observation of nanometer-scale Joule heating and thermoelectric effects, using atomic force microscopy (AFM) based measurements of nanometer-scale temperature fields. When electrical current flows through nanoscale devices and contacts the temperature distribution is governed by both Joule and thermoelectric effects. When the device is driven by an electrical current that is both periodic and bipolar, the temperature rise due to the Joule effect is at a different harmonic than the temperature rise due to the Peltier effect. An AFM tip scanning over the device can simultaneously measure all of the relevant harmonic responses, such that the Joule effect and the Peltier effect can be independently measured. Here we demonstrate the efficacy of the technique by measuring Joule and Peltier effects in phase change memory devices. By comparing the observed temperature responses of these working devices, we measure the device thermopower, which is in the range of 30 ± 3 to 250 ± 10 μV K(-1). This technique could facilitate improved measurements of thermoelectric phenomena and properties at the nanometer-scale.

  2. Nanometer-scale temperature imaging for independent observation of Joule and Peltier effects in phase change memory devices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grosse, Kyle L. [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States); Pop, Eric [Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); King, William P., E-mail: wpk@illinois.edu [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States); Departments of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Materials Science and Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States)

    2014-09-15

    This paper reports a technique for independent observation of nanometer-scale Joule heating and thermoelectric effects, using atomic force microscopy (AFM) based measurements of nanometer-scale temperature fields. When electrical current flows through nanoscale devices and contacts the temperature distribution is governed by both Joule and thermoelectric effects. When the device is driven by an electrical current that is both periodic and bipolar, the temperature rise due to the Joule effect is at a different harmonic than the temperature rise due to the Peltier effect. An AFM tip scanning over the device can simultaneously measure all of the relevant harmonic responses, such that the Joule effect and the Peltier effect can be independently measured. Here we demonstrate the efficacy of the technique by measuring Joule and Peltier effects in phase change memory devices. By comparing the observed temperature responses of these working devices, we measure the device thermopower, which is in the range of 30 ± 3 to 250 ± 10 μV K{sup −1}. This technique could facilitate improved measurements of thermoelectric phenomena and properties at the nanometer-scale.

  3. Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Dianna M.; Labiosa, William; Pearlstine, Leonard; Hallac, David; Strong, David; Hearn, Paul; Bernknopf, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

  4. Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Ward-Garrison, D. Christian; Risley, John C.; Battaglin, William A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Chase, Katherine J.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Dudley, Robert W.; Hunt, Randall J.; Koczot, Kathryn M.; Mastin, Mark C.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.; Vining, Kevin C.; Walker, John F.

    2012-01-01

    A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

  5. Detection of Flooding Responses at the River Basin Scale Enhanced by Land use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Brian C.; Eshleman, Keith N.; Griffith, Jeff L.; Townsend, Philip A.

    2009-01-01

    The Georges Creek watershed (area 187.5 sq km) in western Maryland (United States) has experienced land use changes (>17% of area) associated with surface mining of coal. The adjacent Savage River watershed (area 127.2 sq km) is unmined. Moments of flood frequency distributions indicated that climatic variability affected both watersheds similarly. Normalizing annual maximum flows by antecedent streamflow and causative precipitation helped identify trends in flooding response. Analysis of contemporary storm events using Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) stage III precipitation data showed that Georges Creek floods are characterized by higher peak runoff and a shorter centroid lag than Savage River floods, likely attributable to differences in current land use. Interestingly, Georges Creek produces only two thirds of the storm-flow volume as Savage River, apparently because of infiltration into abandoned deep mine workings and an associated transbasin diversion constructed circa 1900. Empirical trend analysis is thus complicated by both hydroclimatic variability and the legacy of deep mining in the basin.

  6. Investigating the Influence of Climate Changes on Rodent Communities at a Regional-Scale (MIS 1-3, Southwestern France.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurélien Royer

    Full Text Available Terrestrial ecosystems have continuously evolved throughout the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, deeply affected by both progressive environmental and climatic modifications, as well as by abrupt and large climatic changes such as the Heinrich or Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Yet, the impacts of these different events on terrestrial mammalian communities are poorly known, as is the role played by potential refugia on geographical species distributions. This study examines community changes in rodents of southwestern France between 50 and 10 ky BP by integrating 94 dated faunal assemblages coming from 37 archaeological sites. This work reveals that faunal distributions were modified in response to abrupt and brief climatic events, such as Heinrich events, without actually modifying the rodent community on a regional scale. However, the succession of events which operated between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene gradually led to establishing a new rodent community at the regional scale, with intermediate communities occurring between the Bølling and the Allerød.

  7. Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Long; Bala, Govindasamy; Caldeira, Ken

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO 2 and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO 2 content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO 2 warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO 2 and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO 2 on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO 2 versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed. (letter)

  8. Canary in the coal mine: Historical oxygen decline in the Gulf of St. Lawrence due to large scale climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claret, M.; Galbraith, E. D.; Palter, J. B.; Gilbert, D.; Bianchi, D.; Dunne, J. P.

    2016-02-01

    The regional signature of anthropogenic climate change on the atmosphere and upper ocean is often difficult to discern from observational timeseries, dominated as they are by decadal climate variability. Here we argue that a long-term decline of dissolved oxygen concentrations observed in the Gulf of S. Lawrence (GoSL) is consistent with anthropogenic climate change. Oxygen concentrations in the GoSL have declined markedly since 1930 due primarily to an increase of oxygen-poor North Atlantic Central Waters relative to Labrador Current Waters (Gilbert et al. 2005). We compare these observations to a climate warming simulation using a very high-resolution global coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model. The numerical model (CM2.6), developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, is strongly eddying and includes a biogeochemical module with dissolved oxygen. The warming scenario shows that oxygen in the GoSL decreases and it is associated to changes in western boundary currents and wind patterns in the North Atlantic. We speculate that the large-scale changes behind the simulated decrease in GoSL oxygen have also been at play in the real world over the past century, although they are difficult to resolve in noisy atmospheric data.

  9. Early land use and centennial scale changes in lake-water organic carbon prior to contemporary monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Jacob, Carsten; Tolu, Julie; Bigler, Christian; Yang, Handong; Bindler, Richard

    2015-05-26

    Organic carbon concentrations have increased in surface waters across parts of Europe and North America during the past decades, but the main drivers causing this phenomenon are still debated. A lack of observations beyond the last few decades inhibits a better mechanistic understanding of this process and thus a reliable prediction of future changes. Here we present past lake-water organic carbon trends inferred from sediment records across central Sweden that allow us to assess the observed increase on a centennial to millennial time scale. Our data show the recent increase in lake-water carbon but also that this increase was preceded by a landscape-wide, long-term decrease beginning already A.D. 1450-1600. Geochemical and biological proxies reveal that these dynamics coincided with an intensification of human catchment disturbance that decreased over the past century. Catchment disturbance was driven by the expansion and later cessation of widespread summer forest grazing and farming across central Scandinavia. Our findings demonstrate that early land use strongly affected past organic carbon dynamics and suggest that the influence of historical landscape utilization on contemporary changes in lake-water carbon levels has thus far been underestimated. We propose that past changes in land use are also a strong contributing factor in ongoing organic carbon trends in other regions that underwent similar comprehensive changes due to early cultivation and grazing over centuries to millennia.

  10. Coupled Analysis of Change in Fracture Permeability during the Cooling Phase of the Yucca Mountain Drift Scale Test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutqvist, Jonny; Rutqvist, J.; Freifeld, B.; Tsang, Y.W.; Min, K.B.; Elsworth, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents results from a coupled thermal, hydrological and mechanical analysis of thermally-induced permeability changes during heating and cooling of fractured volcanic rock at the Drift Scale Test at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The analysis extends the previous analysis of the four-year heating phase to include newly available data from the subsequent four year cooling phase. The new analysis of the cooling phase shows that the measured changes in fracture permeability follows that of a thermo-hydro-elastic model on average, but at several locations the measured permeability indicates (inelastic) irreversible behavior. At the end of the cooling phase, the air-permeability had decreased at some locations (to as low as 0.2 of initial), whereas it had increased at other locations (to as high as 1.8 of initial). Our analysis shows that such irreversible changes in fracture permeability are consistent with either inelastic fracture shear dilation (where permeability increased) or inelastic fracture surface asperity shortening (where permeability decreased). These data are important for bounding model predictions of potential thermally-induced changes in rock-mass permeability at a future repository at Yucca Mountain

  11. A model for global diversity in response to temperature change over geological time scales, with reference to planktic organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Blasio, Fabio Vittorio; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Schweder, Tore; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

    2015-01-21

    There are strong propositions in the literature that abiotic factors override biotic drivers of diversity on time scales of the fossil record. In order to study the interaction of biotic and abiotic forces on long term changes, we devise a spatio-temporal discrete-time Markov process model of macroevolution featuring population formation, speciation, migration and extinction, where populations are free to migrate. In our model, the extinction probability of these populations is controlled by latitudinally and temporally varying environment (temperature) and competition. Although our model is general enough to be applicable to disparate taxa, we explicitly address planktic organisms, which are assumed to disperse freely without barriers over the Earth's oceans. While rapid and drastic environmental changes tend to eliminate many species, generalists preferentially survive and hence leave generalist descendants. In other words, environmental fluctua