Effects of Catalytic Action and Ligand Binding on Conformational Ensembles of Adenylate Kinase.

Science.gov (United States)

Onuk, Emre; Badger, John; Wang, Yu Jing; Bardhan, Jaydeep; Chishti, Yasmin; Akcakaya, Murat; Brooks, Dana H; Erdogmus, Deniz; Minh, David D L; Makowski, Lee

2017-08-29

Crystal structures of adenylate kinase (AdK) from Escherichia coli capture two states: an "open" conformation (apo) obtained in the absence of ligands and a "closed" conformation in which ligands are bound. Other AdK crystal structures suggest intermediate conformations that may lie on the transition pathway between these two states. To characterize the transition from open to closed states in solution, X-ray solution scattering data were collected from AdK in the apo form and with progressively increasing concentrations of five different ligands. Scattering data from apo AdK are consistent with scattering predicted from the crystal structure of AdK in the open conformation. In contrast, data from AdK samples saturated with Ap5A do not agree with that calculated from AdK in the closed conformation. Using cluster analysis of available structures, we selected representative structures in five conformational states: open, partially open, intermediate, partially closed, and closed. We used these structures to estimate the relative abundances of these states for each experimental condition. X-ray solution scattering data obtained from AdK with AMP are dominated by scattering from AdK in the open conformation. For AdK in the presence of high concentrations of ATP and ADP, the conformational ensemble shifts to a mixture of partially open and closed states. Even when AdK is saturated with Ap5A, a significant proportion of AdK remains in a partially open conformation. These results are consistent with an induced-fit model in which the transition of AdK from an open state to a closed state is initiated by ATP binding.

Conformational and functional analysis of molecular dynamics trajectories by Self-Organising Maps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stella Fabio

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular dynamics (MD simulations are powerful tools to investigate the conformational dynamics of proteins that is often a critical element of their function. Identification of functionally relevant conformations is generally done clustering the large ensemble of structures that are generated. Recently, Self-Organising Maps (SOMs were reported performing more accurately and providing more consistent results than traditional clustering algorithms in various data mining problems. We present a novel strategy to analyse and compare conformational ensembles of protein domains using a two-level approach that combines SOMs and hierarchical clustering. Results The conformational dynamics of the α-spectrin SH3 protein domain and six single mutants were analysed by MD simulations. The Cα's Cartesian coordinates of conformations sampled in the essential space were used as input data vectors for SOM training, then complete linkage clustering was performed on the SOM prototype vectors. A specific protocol to optimize a SOM for structural ensembles was proposed: the optimal SOM was selected by means of a Taguchi experimental design plan applied to different data sets, and the optimal sampling rate of the MD trajectory was selected. The proposed two-level approach was applied to single trajectories of the SH3 domain independently as well as to groups of them at the same time. The results demonstrated the potential of this approach in the analysis of large ensembles of molecular structures: the possibility of producing a topological mapping of the conformational space in a simple 2D visualisation, as well as of effectively highlighting differences in the conformational dynamics directly related to biological functions. Conclusions The use of a two-level approach combining SOMs and hierarchical clustering for conformational analysis of structural ensembles of proteins was proposed. It can easily be extended to other study cases and to

Conformational and functional analysis of molecular dynamics trajectories by Self-Organising Maps

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are powerful tools to investigate the conformational dynamics of proteins that is often a critical element of their function. Identification of functionally relevant conformations is generally done clustering the large ensemble of structures that are generated. Recently, Self-Organising Maps (SOMs) were reported performing more accurately and providing more consistent results than traditional clustering algorithms in various data mining problems. We present a novel strategy to analyse and compare conformational ensembles of protein domains using a two-level approach that combines SOMs and hierarchical clustering. Results The conformational dynamics of the α-spectrin SH3 protein domain and six single mutants were analysed by MD simulations. The Cα's Cartesian coordinates of conformations sampled in the essential space were used as input data vectors for SOM training, then complete linkage clustering was performed on the SOM prototype vectors. A specific protocol to optimize a SOM for structural ensembles was proposed: the optimal SOM was selected by means of a Taguchi experimental design plan applied to different data sets, and the optimal sampling rate of the MD trajectory was selected. The proposed two-level approach was applied to single trajectories of the SH3 domain independently as well as to groups of them at the same time. The results demonstrated the potential of this approach in the analysis of large ensembles of molecular structures: the possibility of producing a topological mapping of the conformational space in a simple 2D visualisation, as well as of effectively highlighting differences in the conformational dynamics directly related to biological functions. Conclusions The use of a two-level approach combining SOMs and hierarchical clustering for conformational analysis of structural ensembles of proteins was proposed. It can easily be extended to other study cases and to conformational ensembles from

Multi-objective optimization for generating a weighted multi-model ensemble

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Lee, H.

2017-12-01

Many studies have demonstrated that multi-model ensembles generally show better skill than each ensemble member. When generating weighted multi-model ensembles, the first step is measuring the performance of individual model simulations using observations. There is a consensus on the assignment of weighting factors based on a single evaluation metric. When considering only one evaluation metric, the weighting factor for each model is proportional to a performance score or inversely proportional to an error for the model. While this conventional approach can provide appropriate combinations of multiple models, the approach confronts a big challenge when there are multiple metrics under consideration. When considering multiple evaluation metrics, it is obvious that a simple averaging of multiple performance scores or model ranks does not address the trade-off problem between conflicting metrics. So far, there seems to be no best method to generate weighted multi-model ensembles based on multiple performance metrics. The current study applies the multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal trade-off solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to combining multiple performance metrics for the global climate models and their dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over North America and generating a weighted multi-model ensemble. NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) software toolkit are used for assessment of the climate simulations. Overall, the performance of each model differs markedly with strong seasonal dependence. Because of the considerable variability across the climate simulations, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections by assigning optimized weighting factors to the models with relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimally weighted multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than an arithmetic

A correspondence between solution-state dynamics of an individual protein and the sequence and conformational diversity of its family.

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Gregory D Friedland

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Conformational ensembles are increasingly recognized as a useful representation to describe fundamental relationships between protein structure, dynamics and function. Here we present an ensemble of ubiquitin in solution that is created by sampling conformational space without experimental information using "Backrub" motions inspired by alternative conformations observed in sub-Angstrom resolution crystal structures. Backrub-generated structures are then selected to produce an ensemble that optimizes agreement with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR Residual Dipolar Couplings (RDCs. Using this ensemble, we probe two proposed relationships between properties of protein ensembles: (i a link between native-state dynamics and the conformational heterogeneity observed in crystal structures, and (ii a relation between dynamics of an individual protein and the conformational variability explored by its natural family. We show that the Backrub motional mechanism can simultaneously explore protein native-state dynamics measured by RDCs, encompass the conformational variability present in ubiquitin complex structures and facilitate sampling of conformational and sequence variability matching those occurring in the ubiquitin protein family. Our results thus support an overall relation between protein dynamics and conformational changes enabling sequence changes in evolution. More practically, the presented method can be applied to improve protein design predictions by accounting for intrinsic native-state dynamics.

Conformational Ensemble of the Poliovirus 3CD Precursor Observed by MD Simulations and Confirmed by SAXS: A Strategy to Expand the Viral Proteome?

Science.gov (United States)

Moustafa, Ibrahim M; Gohara, David W; Uchida, Akira; Yennawar, Neela; Cameron, Craig E

2015-11-23

The genomes of RNA viruses are relatively small. To overcome the small-size limitation, RNA viruses assign distinct functions to the processed viral proteins and their precursors. This is exemplified by poliovirus 3CD protein. 3C protein is a protease and RNA-binding protein. 3D protein is an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). 3CD exhibits unique protease and RNA-binding activities relative to 3C and is devoid of RdRp activity. The origin of these differences is unclear, since crystal structure of 3CD revealed "beads-on-a-string" structure with no significant structural differences compared to the fully processed proteins. We performed molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on 3CD to investigate its conformational dynamics. A compact conformation of 3CD was observed that was substantially different from that shown crystallographically. This new conformation explained the unique properties of 3CD relative to the individual proteins. Interestingly, simulations of mutant 3CD showed altered interface. Additionally, accelerated MD simulations uncovered a conformational ensemble of 3CD. When we elucidated the 3CD conformations in solution using small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments a range of conformations from extended to compact was revealed, validating the MD simulations. The existence of conformational ensemble of 3CD could be viewed as a way to expand the poliovirus proteome, an observation that may extend to other viruses.

Simultaneous escaping of explicit and hidden free energy barriers: application of the orthogonal space random walk strategy in generalized ensemble based conformational sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Lianqing; Chen, Mengen; Yang, Wei

2009-06-21

To overcome the pseudoergodicity problem, conformational sampling can be accelerated via generalized ensemble methods, e.g., through the realization of random walks along prechosen collective variables, such as spatial order parameters, energy scaling parameters, or even system temperatures or pressures, etc. As usually observed, in generalized ensemble simulations, hidden barriers are likely to exist in the space perpendicular to the collective variable direction and these residual free energy barriers could greatly abolish the sampling efficiency. This sampling issue is particularly severe when the collective variable is defined in a low-dimension subset of the target system; then the "Hamiltonian lagging" problem, which reveals the fact that necessary structural relaxation falls behind the move of the collective variable, may be likely to occur. To overcome this problem in equilibrium conformational sampling, we adopted the orthogonal space random walk (OSRW) strategy, which was originally developed in the context of free energy simulation [L. Zheng, M. Chen, and W. Yang, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105, 20227 (2008)]. Thereby, generalized ensemble simulations can simultaneously escape both the explicit barriers along the collective variable direction and the hidden barriers that are strongly coupled with the collective variable move. As demonstrated in our model studies, the present OSRW based generalized ensemble treatments show improved sampling capability over the corresponding classical generalized ensemble treatments.

Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.

2016-01-01

the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...... approach, called d-ECC, is applied to wind forecasts from the high resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS run operationally at the German weather service. Scenarios generated by ECC and d-ECC are compared and assessed in the form of time series by means of multivariate verification tools and in a product...

Confab - Systematic generation of diverse low-energy conformers

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O'Boyle Noel M

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many computational chemistry analyses require the generation of conformers, either on-the-fly, or in advance. We present Confab, an open source command-line application for the systematic generation of low-energy conformers according to a diversity criterion. Results Confab generates conformations using the 'torsion driving approach' which involves iterating systematically through a set of allowed torsion angles for each rotatable bond. Energy is assessed using the MMFF94 forcefield. Diversity is measured using the heavy-atom root-mean-square deviation (RMSD relative to conformers already stored. We investigated the recovery of crystal structures for a dataset of 1000 ligands from the Protein Data Bank with fewer than 1 million conformations. Confab can recover 97% of the molecules to within 1.5 Å at a diversity level of 1.5 Å and an energy cutoff of 50 kcal/mol. Conclusions Confab is available from http://confab.googlecode.com.

Hierarchical Conformational Analysis of Native Lysozyme Based on Sub-Millisecond Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kai Wang

Full Text Available Hierarchical organization of free energy landscape (FEL for native globular proteins has been widely accepted by the biophysics community. However, FEL of native proteins is usually projected onto one or a few dimensions. Here we generated collectively 0.2 milli-second molecular dynamics simulation trajectories in explicit solvent for hen egg white lysozyme (HEWL, and carried out detailed conformational analysis based on backbone torsional degrees of freedom (DOF. Our results demonstrated that at micro-second and coarser temporal resolutions, FEL of HEWL exhibits hub-like topology with crystal structures occupying the dominant structural ensemble that serves as the hub of conformational transitions. However, at 100 ns and finer temporal resolutions, conformational substates of HEWL exhibit network-like topology, crystal structures are associated with kinetic traps that are important but not dominant ensembles. Backbone torsional state transitions on time scales ranging from nanoseconds to beyond microseconds were found to be associated with various types of molecular interactions. Even at nanoseconds temporal resolution, the number of conformational substates that are of statistical significance is quite limited. These observations suggest that detailed analysis of conformational substates at multiple temporal resolutions is both important and feasible. Transition state ensembles among various conformational substates at microsecond temporal resolution were observed to be considerably disordered. Life times of these transition state ensembles are found to be nearly independent of the time scales of the participating torsional DOFs.

Loss of conformational entropy in protein folding calculated using realistic ensembles and its implications for NMR-based calculations

Science.gov (United States)

Baxa, Michael C.; Haddadian, Esmael J.; Jumper, John M.; Freed, Karl F.; Sosnick, Tobin R.

2014-01-01

The loss of conformational entropy is a major contribution in the thermodynamics of protein folding. However, accurate determination of the quantity has proven challenging. We calculate this loss using molecular dynamic simulations of both the native protein and a realistic denatured state ensemble. For ubiquitin, the total change in entropy is TΔSTotal = 1.4 kcal⋅mol−1 per residue at 300 K with only 20% from the loss of side-chain entropy. Our analysis exhibits mixed agreement with prior studies because of the use of more accurate ensembles and contributions from correlated motions. Buried side chains lose only a factor of 1.4 in the number of conformations available per rotamer upon folding (ΩU/ΩN). The entropy loss for helical and sheet residues differs due to the smaller motions of helical residues (TΔShelix−sheet = 0.5 kcal⋅mol−1), a property not fully reflected in the amide N-H and carbonyl C=O bond NMR order parameters. The results have implications for the thermodynamics of folding and binding, including estimates of solvent ordering and microscopic entropies obtained from NMR. PMID:25313044

Microcanonical ensemble and algebra of conserved generators for generalized quantum dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adler, S.L.; Horwitz, L.P.

1996-01-01

It has recently been shown, by application of statistical mechanical methods to determine the canonical ensemble governing the equilibrium distribution of operator initial values, that complex quantum field theory can emerge as a statistical approximation to an underlying generalized quantum dynamics. This result was obtained by an argument based on a Ward identity analogous to the equipartition theorem of classical statistical mechanics. We construct here a microcanonical ensemble which forms the basis of this canonical ensemble. This construction enables us to define the microcanonical entropy and free energy of the field configuration of the equilibrium distribution and to study the stability of the canonical ensemble. We also study the algebraic structure of the conserved generators from which the microcanonical and canonical ensembles are constructed, and the flows they induce on the phase space. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

Reducing storage of global wind ensembles with stochastic generators

KAUST Repository

Jeong, Jaehong

2018-03-09

Wind has the potential to make a significant contribution to future energy resources. Locating the sources of this renewable energy on a global scale is however extremely challenging, given the difficulty to store very large data sets generated by modern computer models. We propose a statistical model that aims at reproducing the data-generating mechanism of an ensemble of runs via a Stochastic Generator (SG) of global annual wind data. We introduce an evolutionary spectrum approach with spatially varying parameters based on large-scale geographical descriptors such as altitude to better account for different regimes across the Earth’s orography. We consider a multi-step conditional likelihood approach to estimate the parameters that explicitly accounts for nonstationary features while also balancing memory storage and distributed computation. We apply the proposed model to more than 18 million points of yearly global wind speed. The proposed SG requires orders of magnitude less storage for generating surrogate ensemble members from wind than does creating additional wind fields from the climate model, even if an effective lossy data compression algorithm is applied to the simulation output.

Reducing storage of global wind ensembles with stochastic generators

KAUST Repository

Jeong, Jaehong; Castruccio, Stefano; Crippa, Paola; Genton, Marc G.

2018-01-01

Wind has the potential to make a significant contribution to future energy resources. Locating the sources of this renewable energy on a global scale is however extremely challenging, given the difficulty to store very large data sets generated by modern computer models. We propose a statistical model that aims at reproducing the data-generating mechanism of an ensemble of runs via a Stochastic Generator (SG) of global annual wind data. We introduce an evolutionary spectrum approach with spatially varying parameters based on large-scale geographical descriptors such as altitude to better account for different regimes across the Earth’s orography. We consider a multi-step conditional likelihood approach to estimate the parameters that explicitly accounts for nonstationary features while also balancing memory storage and distributed computation. We apply the proposed model to more than 18 million points of yearly global wind speed. The proposed SG requires orders of magnitude less storage for generating surrogate ensemble members from wind than does creating additional wind fields from the climate model, even if an effective lossy data compression algorithm is applied to the simulation output.

Conformation Generation: The State of the Art.

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, Paul C D

2017-08-28

The generation of conformations for small molecules is a problem of continuing interest in cheminformatics and computational drug discovery. This review will present an overview of methods used to sample conformational space, focusing on those methods designed for organic molecules commonly of interest in drug discovery. Different approaches to both the sampling of conformational space and the scoring of conformational stability will be compared and contrasted, with an emphasis on those methods suitable for conformer sampling of large numbers of drug-like molecules. Particular attention will be devoted to the appropriate utilization of information from experimental solid-state structures in validating and evaluating the performance of these tools. The review will conclude with some areas worthy of further investigation.

Generation of macroscopic singlet states in atomic ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Tóth, Géza; Mitchell, Morgan W.

2010-05-01

We study squeezing of the spin uncertainties by quantum non-demolition (QND) measurement in non-polarized spin ensembles. Unlike the case of polarized ensembles, the QND measurements can be performed with negligible back-action, which allows, in principle, perfect spin squeezing as quantified by Tóth et al (2007 Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 250405). The generated spin states approach many-body singlet states and contain a macroscopic number of entangled particles even when individual spin is large. We introduce the Gaussian treatment of unpolarized spin states and use it to estimate the achievable spin squeezing for realistic experimental parameters. Our proposal might have applications for magnetometry with a high spatial resolution or quantum memories storing information in decoherence free subspaces.

Generation of Exotic Quantum States of a Cold Atomic Ensemble

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Stefan Lund

Over the last decades quantum effects have become more and more controllable, leading to the implementations of various quantum information protocols. These protocols are all based on utilizing quantum correlation. In this thesis we consider how states of an atomic ensemble with such correlations...... can be created and characterized. First we consider a spin-squeezed state. This state is generated by performing quantum non-demolition measurements of the atomic population difference. We show a spectroscopically relevant noise reduction of -1.7dB, the ensemble is in a many-body entangled state...... — a nanofiber based light-atom interface. Using a dual-frequency probing method we measure and prepare an ensemble with a sub-Poissonian atom number distribution. This is a first step towards the implementation of more exotic quantum states....

The "Tse Tsa Watle" Speaker Series: An Example of Ensemble Leadership and Generative Adult Learning

Science.gov (United States)

McKendry, Virginia

2017-01-01

This chapter examines an Indigenous speaker series formed to foster intercultural partnerships at a Canadian university. Using ensemble leadership and generative learning theories to make sense of the project, the author argues that ensemble leadership is key to designing the generative learning adult learners need in an era of ambiguity.

A New Method for Determining Structure Ensemble: Application to a RNA Binding Di-Domain Protein.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wei; Zhang, Jingfeng; Fan, Jing-Song; Tria, Giancarlo; Grüber, Gerhard; Yang, Daiwen

2016-05-10

Structure ensemble determination is the basis of understanding the structure-function relationship of a multidomain protein with weak domain-domain interactions. Paramagnetic relaxation enhancement has been proven a powerful tool in the study of structure ensembles, but there exist a number of challenges such as spin-label flexibility, domain dynamics, and overfitting. Here we propose a new (to our knowledge) method to describe structure ensembles using a minimal number of conformers. In this method, individual domains are considered rigid; the position of each spin-label conformer and the structure of each protein conformer are defined by three and six orthogonal parameters, respectively. First, the spin-label ensemble is determined by optimizing the positions and populations of spin-label conformers against intradomain paramagnetic relaxation enhancements with a genetic algorithm. Subsequently, the protein structure ensemble is optimized using a more efficient genetic algorithm-based approach and an overfitting indicator, both of which were established in this work. The method was validated using a reference ensemble with a set of conformers whose populations and structures are known. This method was also applied to study the structure ensemble of the tandem di-domain of a poly (U) binding protein. The determined ensemble was supported by small-angle x-ray scattering and nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation data. The ensemble obtained suggests an induced fit mechanism for recognition of target RNA by the protein. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Conformations of Nucleosome Arrays in Solution from Small-Angle X-ray Scattering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Howell, Steven C. [George Washington Univ., Washington, DC (United States)

2016-01-31

We set out to determine quantitative information regarding the dynamic conformation of nucleosome arrays in solution using experimental SAXS. Toward this end, we developed a CG simulation algorithm for dsDNA which rapidly generates ensembles of structures through Metropolis MC sampling of a Markov chain.

Cyndi: a multi-objective evolution algorithm based method for bioactive molecular conformational generation.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaofeng; Bai, Fang; Ouyang, Sisheng; Wang, Xicheng; Li, Honglin; Jiang, Hualiang

2009-03-31

Conformation generation is a ubiquitous problem in molecule modelling. Many applications require sampling the broad molecular conformational space or perceiving the bioactive conformers to ensure success. Numerous in silico methods have been proposed in an attempt to resolve the problem, ranging from deterministic to non-deterministic and systemic to stochastic ones. In this work, we described an efficient conformation sampling method named Cyndi, which is based on multi-objective evolution algorithm. The conformational perturbation is subjected to evolutionary operation on the genome encoded with dihedral torsions. Various objectives are designated to render the generated Pareto optimal conformers to be energy-favoured as well as evenly scattered across the conformational space. An optional objective concerning the degree of molecular extension is added to achieve geometrically extended or compact conformations which have been observed to impact the molecular bioactivity (J Comput -Aided Mol Des 2002, 16: 105-112). Testing the performance of Cyndi against a test set consisting of 329 small molecules reveals an average minimum RMSD of 0.864 A to corresponding bioactive conformations, indicating Cyndi is highly competitive against other conformation generation methods. Meanwhile, the high-speed performance (0.49 +/- 0.18 seconds per molecule) renders Cyndi to be a practical toolkit for conformational database preparation and facilitates subsequent pharmacophore mapping or rigid docking. The copy of precompiled executable of Cyndi and the test set molecules in mol2 format are accessible in Additional file 1. On the basis of MOEA algorithm, we present a new, highly efficient conformation generation method, Cyndi, and report the results of validation and performance studies comparing with other four methods. The results reveal that Cyndi is capable of generating geometrically diverse conformers and outperforms other four multiple conformer generators in the case of

Cyndi: a multi-objective evolution algorithm based method for bioactive molecular conformational generation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Honglin

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Conformation generation is a ubiquitous problem in molecule modelling. Many applications require sampling the broad molecular conformational space or perceiving the bioactive conformers to ensure success. Numerous in silico methods have been proposed in an attempt to resolve the problem, ranging from deterministic to non-deterministic and systemic to stochastic ones. In this work, we described an efficient conformation sampling method named Cyndi, which is based on multi-objective evolution algorithm. Results The conformational perturbation is subjected to evolutionary operation on the genome encoded with dihedral torsions. Various objectives are designated to render the generated Pareto optimal conformers to be energy-favoured as well as evenly scattered across the conformational space. An optional objective concerning the degree of molecular extension is added to achieve geometrically extended or compact conformations which have been observed to impact the molecular bioactivity (J Comput -Aided Mol Des 2002, 16: 105–112. Testing the performance of Cyndi against a test set consisting of 329 small molecules reveals an average minimum RMSD of 0.864 Å to corresponding bioactive conformations, indicating Cyndi is highly competitive against other conformation generation methods. Meanwhile, the high-speed performance (0.49 ± 0.18 seconds per molecule renders Cyndi to be a practical toolkit for conformational database preparation and facilitates subsequent pharmacophore mapping or rigid docking. The copy of precompiled executable of Cyndi and the test set molecules in mol2 format are accessible in Additional file 1. Conclusion On the basis of MOEA algorithm, we present a new, highly efficient conformation generation method, Cyndi, and report the results of validation and performance studies comparing with other four methods. The results reveal that Cyndi is capable of generating geometrically diverse conformers and outperforms

Using 1H and 13C NMR chemical shifts to determine cyclic peptide conformations: a combined molecular dynamics and quantum mechanics approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Q Nhu N; Schwochert, Joshua; Tantillo, Dean J; Lokey, R Scott

2018-05-10

Solving conformations of cyclic peptides can provide insight into structure-activity and structure-property relationships, which can help in the design of compounds with improved bioactivity and/or ADME characteristics. The most common approaches for determining the structures of cyclic peptides are based on NMR-derived distance restraints obtained from NOESY or ROESY cross-peak intensities, and 3J-based dihedral restraints using the Karplus relationship. Unfortunately, these observables are often too weak, sparse, or degenerate to provide unequivocal, high-confidence solution structures, prompting us to investigate an alternative approach that relies only on 1H and 13C chemical shifts as experimental observables. This method, which we call conformational analysis from NMR and density-functional prediction of low-energy ensembles (CANDLE), uses molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to generate conformer families and density functional theory (DFT) calculations to predict their 1H and 13C chemical shifts. Iterative conformer searches and DFT energy calculations on a cyclic peptide-peptoid hybrid yielded Boltzmann ensembles whose predicted chemical shifts matched the experimental values better than any single conformer. For these compounds, CANDLE outperformed the classic NOE- and 3J-coupling-based approach by disambiguating similar β-turn types and also enabled the structural elucidation of the minor conformer. Through the use of chemical shifts, in conjunction with DFT and MD calculations, CANDLE can help illuminate conformational ensembles of cyclic peptides in solution.

Enzymatic Detoxication, Conformational Selection, and the Role of Molten Globule Active Sites*

Science.gov (United States)

Honaker, Matthew T.; Acchione, Mauro; Zhang, Wei; Mannervik, Bengt; Atkins, William M.

2013-01-01

The role of conformational ensembles in enzymatic reactions remains unclear. Discussion concerning “induced fit” versus “conformational selection” has, however, ignored detoxication enzymes, which exhibit catalytic promiscuity. These enzymes dominate drug metabolism and determine drug-drug interactions. The detoxication enzyme glutathione transferase A1–1 (GSTA1–1), exploits a molten globule-like active site to achieve remarkable catalytic promiscuity wherein the substrate-free conformational ensemble is broad with barrierless transitions between states. A quantitative index of catalytic promiscuity is used to compare engineered variants of GSTA1–1 and the catalytic promiscuity correlates strongly with characteristics of the thermodynamic partition function, for the substrate-free enzymes. Access to chemically disparate transition states is encoded by the substrate-free conformational ensemble. Pre-steady state catalytic data confirm an extension of the conformational selection model, wherein different substrates select different starting conformations. The kinetic liability of the conformational breadth is minimized by a smooth landscape. We propose that “local” molten globule behavior optimizes detoxication enzymes. PMID:23649628

Conformation-related exciton localization and charge-pair formation in polythiophenes: ensemble and single-molecule study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sugimoto, Toshikazu; Habuchi, Satoshi; Ogino, Kenji; Vacha, Martin

2009-09-10

We study conformation-dependent photophysical properties of polythiophene (PT) by molecular dynamics simulations and by ensemble and single-molecule optical experiments. We use a graft copolymer consisting of a polythiophene backbone and long polystyrene branches and compare its properties with those obtained on the same polythiophene derivative without the side chains. Coarse-grain molecular dynamics simulations show that in a poor solvent, the PT without the side chains (PT-R) forms a globulelike conformation in which distances between any two conjugated segments on the chain are within the Forster radius for efficient energy transfer. In the PT with the polystyrene branches (PT-PS), the polymer main PT chain retains an extended coillike conformation, even in a poor solvent, and the calculated distances between conjugated segments favor energy transfer only between a few neighboring chromophores. The theoretical predictions are confirmed by measurements of fluorescence anisotropy and fluorescence blinking of the polymers' single chains. High anisotropy ratios and two-state blinking in PT-R are due to localization of the exciton on a single conjugated segment. These signatures of exciton localization are absent in single chains of PT-PS. Electric-field-induced quenching measured as a function of concentration of PT dispersed in an inert matrix showed that in well-isolated chains of PT-PS, the exciton dissociation is an intrachain process and that aggregation of the PT-R chains causes an increase in quenching due to the onset of interchain interactions. Measurements of the field-induced quenching on single chains indicate that in PT-R, the exciton dissociation is a slower process that takes place only after the exciton is localized on one conjugated segment.

Random walk loop soups and conformal loop ensembles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Brug, T.; Camia, F.; Lis, M.

2016-01-01

The random walk loop soup is a Poissonian ensemble of lattice loops; it has been extensively studied because of its connections to the discrete Gaussian free field, but was originally introduced by Lawler and Trujillo Ferreras as a discrete version of the Brownian loop soup of Lawler and Werner, a

Comparison of surface freshwater fluxes from different climate forecasts produced through different ensemble generation schemes.

Science.gov (United States)

Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas; Wahl, Sabrina; Brune, Sebastian; Baehr, Johanna

2016-04-01

The decadal variability and its predictability of the surface net freshwater fluxes is compared in a set of retrospective predictions, all using the same model setup, and only differing in the implemented ocean initialisation method and ensemble generation method. The basic aim is to deduce the differences between the initialization/ensemble generation methods in view of the uncertainty of the verifying observational data sets. The analysis will give an approximation of the uncertainties of the net freshwater fluxes, which up to now appear to be one of the most uncertain products in observational data and model outputs. All ensemble generation methods are implemented into the MPI-ESM earth system model in the framework of the ongoing MiKlip project (www.fona-miklip.de). Hindcast experiments are initialised annually between 2000-2004, and from each start year 10 ensemble members are initialized for 5 years each. Four different ensemble generation methods are compared: (i) a method based on the Anomaly Transform method (Romanova and Hense, 2015) in which the initial oceanic perturbations represent orthogonal and balanced anomaly structures in space and time and between the variables taken from a control run, (ii) one-day-lagged ocean states from the MPI-ESM-LR baseline system (iii) one-day-lagged of ocean and atmospheric states with preceding full-field nudging to re-analysis in both the atmospheric and the oceanic component of the system - the baseline one MPI-ESM-LR system, (iv) an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) implemented into oceanic part of MPI-ESM (Brune et al. 2015), assimilating monthly subsurface oceanic temperature and salinity (EN3) using the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The hindcasts are evaluated probabilistically using fresh water flux data sets from four different reanalysis data sets: MERRA, NCEP-R1, GFDL ocean reanalysis and GECCO2. The assessments show no clear differences in the evaluations scores on regional scales. However, on the

Conformational Fluctuations in G-Protein-Coupled Receptors

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Michael F.

2014-03-01

G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) comprise almost 50% of pharmaceutical drug targets, where rhodopsin is an important prototype and occurs naturally in a lipid membrane. Rhodopsin photoactivation entails 11-cis to all-trans isomerization of the retinal cofactor, yielding an equilibrium between inactive Meta-I and active Meta-II states. Two important questions are: (1) Is rhodopsin is a simple two-state switch? Or (2) does isomerization of retinal unlock an activated conformational ensemble? For an ensemble-based activation mechanism (EAM) a role for conformational fluctuations is clearly indicated. Solid-state NMR data together with theoretical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations detect increased local mobility of retinal after light activation. Resultant changes in local dynamics of the cofactor initiate large-scale fluctuations of transmembrane helices that expose recognition sites for the signal-transducing G-protein. Time-resolved FTIR studies and electronic spectroscopy further show the conformational ensemble is strongly biased by the membrane lipid composition, as well as pH and osmotic pressure. A new flexible surface model (FSM) describes how the curvature stress field of the membrane governs the energetics of active rhodopsin, due to the spontaneous monolayer curvature of the lipids. Furthermore, influences of osmotic pressure dictate that a large number of bulk water molecules are implicated in rhodopsin activation. Around 60 bulk water molecules activate rhodopsin, which is much larger than the number of structural waters seen in X-ray crystallography, or inferred from studies of bulk hydrostatic pressure. Conformational selection and promoting vibrational motions of rhodopsin lead to activation of the G-protein (transducin). Our biophysical data give a paradigm shift in understanding GPCR activation. The new view is: dynamics and conformational fluctuations involve an ensemble of substates that activate the cognate G-protein in the amplified visual

Improved validation of IDP ensembles by one-bond Cα–Hα scalar couplings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gapsys, Vytautas [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Computational Biomolecular Dynamics Group (Germany); Narayanan, Raghavendran L.; Xiang, ShengQi [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Department for NMR-Based Structural Biology (Germany); Groot, Bert L. de [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Computational Biomolecular Dynamics Group (Germany); Zweckstetter, Markus, E-mail: markus.zweckstetter@dzne.de [Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Department for NMR-Based Structural Biology (Germany)

2015-11-15

Intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) are best described by ensembles of conformations and a variety of approaches have been developed to determine IDP ensembles. Because of the large number of conformations, however, cross-validation of the determined ensembles by independent experimental data is crucial. The {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} coupling constant is particularly suited for cross-validation, because it has a large magnitude and mostly depends on the often less accessible dihedral angle ψ. Here, we reinvestigated the connection between {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} values and protein backbone dihedral angles. We show that accurate amino-acid specific random coil values of the {sup 1}J{sub CαHα} coupling constant, in combination with a reparameterized empirical Karplus-type equation, allow for reliable cross-validation of molecular ensembles of IDPs.

Enhanced conformational sampling to visualize a free-energy landscape of protein complex formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Iida, Shinji; Nakamura, Haruki; Higo, Junichi

2016-06-15

We introduce various, recently developed, generalized ensemble methods, which are useful to sample various molecular configurations emerging in the process of protein-protein or protein-ligand binding. The methods introduced here are those that have been or will be applied to biomolecular binding, where the biomolecules are treated as flexible molecules expressed by an all-atom model in an explicit solvent. Sampling produces an ensemble of conformations (snapshots) that are thermodynamically probable at room temperature. Then, projection of those conformations to an abstract low-dimensional space generates a free-energy landscape. As an example, we show a landscape of homo-dimer formation of an endothelin-1-like molecule computed using a generalized ensemble method. The lowest free-energy cluster at room temperature coincided precisely with the experimentally determined complex structure. Two minor clusters were also found in the landscape, which were largely different from the native complex form. Although those clusters were isolated at room temperature, with rising temperature a pathway emerged linking the lowest and second-lowest free-energy clusters, and a further temperature increment connected all the clusters. This exemplifies that the generalized ensemble method is a powerful tool for computing the free-energy landscape, by which one can discuss the thermodynamic stability of clusters and the temperature dependence of the cluster networks. © 2016 The Author(s).

Disease-associated mutations that alter the RNA structural ensemble.

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Matthew Halvorsen

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS often identify disease-associated mutations in intergenic and non-coding regions of the genome. Given the high percentage of the human genome that is transcribed, we postulate that for some observed associations the disease phenotype is caused by a structural rearrangement in a regulatory region of the RNA transcript. To identify such mutations, we have performed a genome-wide analysis of all known disease-associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs from the Human Gene Mutation Database (HGMD that map to the untranslated regions (UTRs of a gene. Rather than using minimum free energy approaches (e.g. mFold, we use a partition function calculation that takes into consideration the ensemble of possible RNA conformations for a given sequence. We identified in the human genome disease-associated SNPs that significantly alter the global conformation of the UTR to which they map. For six disease-states (Hyperferritinemia Cataract Syndrome, beta-Thalassemia, Cartilage-Hair Hypoplasia, Retinoblastoma, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD, and Hypertension, we identified multiple SNPs in UTRs that alter the mRNA structural ensemble of the associated genes. Using a Boltzmann sampling procedure for sub-optimal RNA structures, we are able to characterize and visualize the nature of the conformational changes induced by the disease-associated mutations in the structural ensemble. We observe in several cases (specifically the 5' UTRs of FTL and RB1 SNP-induced conformational changes analogous to those observed in bacterial regulatory Riboswitches when specific ligands bind. We propose that the UTR and SNP combinations we identify constitute a "RiboSNitch," that is a regulatory RNA in which a specific SNP has a structural consequence that results in a disease phenotype. Our SNPfold algorithm can help identify RiboSNitches by leveraging GWAS data and an analysis of the mRNA structural ensemble.

Modeling of steam generator in nuclear power plant using neural network ensemble

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, S. K.; Lee, E. C.; Jang, J. W.

2003-01-01

Neural network is now being used in modeling the steam generator is known to be difficult due to the reverse dynamics. However, Neural network is prone to the problem of overfitting. This paper investigates the use of neural network combining methods to model steam generator water level and compares with single neural network. The results show that neural network ensemble is effective tool which can offer improved generalization, lower dependence of the training set and reduced training time

New conformations of linear polyubiquitin chains from crystallographic and solution-scattering studies expand the conformational space of polyubiquitin.

Science.gov (United States)

Thach, Trung Thanh; Shin, Donghyuk; Han, Seungsu; Lee, Sangho

2016-04-01

The conformational flexibility of linkage-specific polyubiquitin chains enables ubiquitylated proteins and their receptors to be involved in a variety of cellular processes. Linear or Met1-linked polyubiquitin chains, associated with nondegradational cellular signalling pathways, have been known to adopt multiple conformations from compact to extended conformations. However, the extent of such conformational flexibility remains open. Here, the crystal structure of linear Ub2 was determined in a more compact conformation than that of the previously known structure (PDB entry 3axc). The two structures differ significantly from each other, as shown by an r.m.s.d. between C(α) atoms of 3.1 Å. The compactness of the linear Ub2 structure in comparison with PDB entry 3axc is supported by smaller values of the radius of gyration (Rg; 18 versus 18.9 Å) and the maximum interatomic distance (Dmax; 55.5 versus 57.8 Å). Extra intramolecular hydrogen bonds formed among polar residues between the distal and proximal ubiquitin moieties seem to contribute to stabilization of the compact conformation of linear Ub2. An ensemble of three semi-extended and extended conformations of linear Ub2 was also observed by small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) analysis in solution. In addition, the conformational heterogeneity in linear polyubiquitin chains is clearly manifested by SAXS analyses of linear Ub3 and Ub4: at least three distinct solution conformations are observed in each chain, with the linear Ub3 conformations being compact. The results expand the extent of conformational space of linear polyubiquitin chains and suggest that changes in the conformational ensemble may be pivotal in mediating multiple signalling pathways.

Conformers, infrared spectrum, UV-induced photochemistry, and near-IR-induced generation of two rare conformers of matrix-isolated phenylglycine

Science.gov (United States)

Borba, Ana; Gómez-Zavaglia, Andrea; Fausto, Rui

2014-10-01

The conformational space of α-phenylglycine (PG) have been investigated theoretically at both the DFT/B3LYP/6-311++G(d,p) and MP2/6-311++G(d,p) levels of approximation. Seventeen different minima were found on the investigated potential energy surfaces, which are characterized by different dominant intramolecular interactions: type I conformers are stabilized by hydrogen bonds of the type N-H...O=C, type II by a strong O-H...N hydrogen bond, type III by weak N-H...O-H hydrogen bonds, and type IV by a C=O...H-C contact. The calculations indicate also that entropic effects are relevant in determining the equilibrium populations of the conformers of PG in the gas phase, in particular in the case of conformers of type II, where the strong intramolecular O-H...N hydrogen bond considerably diminishes entropy by reducing the conformational mobility of the molecule. In consonance with the relative energies of the conformers and barriers for conformational interconversion, only 3 conformers of PG were observed for the compound isolated in cryogenic Ar, Xe, and N2 matrices: the conformational ground state (ICa), and forms ICc and IITa. All other significantly populated conformers existing in the gas phase prior to deposition convert either to conformer ICa or to conformer ICc during matrix deposition. The experimental observation of ICc had never been achieved hitherto. Narrowband near-IR irradiation of the first overtone of νOH vibrational mode of ICa and ICc in nitrogen matrices (at 6910 and 6930 cm-1, respectively) led to selective generation of two additional conformers of high-energy, ITc and ITa, respectively, which were also observed experimentally for the first time. In addition, these experiments also provided the key information for the detailed vibrational characterization of the 3 conformers initially present in the matrices. On the other hand, UV irradiation (λ = 255 nm) of PG isolated in a xenon matrix revealed that PG undergoes facile photofragmentation

Conformers, infrared spectrum, UV-induced photochemistry, and near-IR-induced generation of two rare conformers of matrix-isolated phenylglycine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borba, Ana; Fausto, Rui; Gómez-Zavaglia, Andrea

2014-01-01

The conformational space of α-phenylglycine (PG) have been investigated theoretically at both the DFT/B3LYP/6-311++G(d,p) and MP2/6-311++G(d,p) levels of approximation. Seventeen different minima were found on the investigated potential energy surfaces, which are characterized by different dominant intramolecular interactions: type I conformers are stabilized by hydrogen bonds of the type N–H···O=C, type II by a strong O–H···N hydrogen bond, type III by weak N–H···O–H hydrogen bonds, and type IV by a C=O···H–C contact. The calculations indicate also that entropic effects are relevant in determining the equilibrium populations of the conformers of PG in the gas phase, in particular in the case of conformers of type II, where the strong intramolecular O–H···N hydrogen bond considerably diminishes entropy by reducing the conformational mobility of the molecule. In consonance with the relative energies of the conformers and barriers for conformational interconversion, only 3 conformers of PG were observed for the compound isolated in cryogenic Ar, Xe, and N 2 matrices: the conformational ground state (ICa), and forms ICc and IITa. All other significantly populated conformers existing in the gas phase prior to deposition convert either to conformer ICa or to conformer ICc during matrix deposition. The experimental observation of ICc had never been achieved hitherto. Narrowband near-IR irradiation of the first overtone of νOH vibrational mode of ICa and ICc in nitrogen matrices (at 6910 and 6930 cm −1 , respectively) led to selective generation of two additional conformers of high-energy, ITc and ITa, respectively, which were also observed experimentally for the first time. In addition, these experiments also provided the key information for the detailed vibrational characterization of the 3 conformers initially present in the matrices. On the other hand, UV irradiation (λ = 255 nm) of PG isolated in a xenon matrix revealed that PG

Virtual and solution conformations of oligosaccharides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cumming, D.A.; Carver, J.P.

1987-01-01

The possibility that observed nuclear Overhauser enhancements and bulk longitudinal relaxation times, parameters measured by 1 H NMR and often employed in determining the preferred solution conformation of biologically important molecules, are the result of averaging over many conformational states is quantitatively evaluated. Of particular interest was to ascertain whether certain 1 H NMR determined conformations are virtual in nature; i.e., the fraction of the population of molecules actually found at any time within the subset of conformational space defined as the solution conformation is vanishingly small. A statistical mechanics approach was utilized to calculate an ensemble average relaxation matrix from which (NOE)'s and (T 1 )'s are calculated. Model glycosidic linkages in four oligosaccharides were studied. The nature of the resultant population distributions is such that 50% of the molecular population is found within 1% of available microstates, while 99% of the molecular population occupies about 10% of the ensemble microstates, a number roughly equal to that sterically allowed. From this analysis the authors conclude that in many cases quantitative interpretation of NMR relaxation data, which attempts to define a single set of allowable torsion angle values consistent with the observed data, will lead to solution conformations that are either virtual or reflect torsion angle values possessed by a minority of the molecular population. Observed values of NMR relaxation data are the result of the complex interdependence of the population distribution and NOE (or T 1 ) surfaces in conformational space. In conformational analyses, NMR data can therefore be used to test different population distributions calculated from empirical potential energy functions

Grey Wisdom? : Philosophical Reflections on Conformity and Opposition between Generations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mulder, Ernst; Goor, van Roel

2006-01-01

Should 'new' generations act in conformity with, or in opposition to 'older' generations? This can be regarded as a central question in the philosophical study of education. This question has practical implications. Should it be our main concern to initiate children into our traditions, or should we

Using Analog Ensemble to generate spatially downscaled probabilistic wind power forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Delle Monache, L.; Shahriari, M.; Cervone, G.

2017-12-01

We use the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) method to generate probabilistic 80-m wind power forecasts. We use data from the NCEP GFS ( 28 km resolution) and NCEP NAM (12 km resolution). We use forecasts data from NAM and GFS, and analysis data from NAM which enables us to: 1) use a lower-resolution model to create higher-resolution forecasts, and 2) use a higher-resolution model to create higher-resolution forecasts. The former essentially increases computing speed and the latter increases forecast accuracy. An aggregated model of the former can be compared against the latter to measure the accuracy of the AnEn spatial downscaling. The AnEn works by taking a deterministic future forecast and comparing it with past forecasts. The model searches for the best matching estimates within the past forecasts and selects the predictand value corresponding to these past forecasts as the ensemble prediction for the future forecast. Our study is based on predicting wind speed and air density at more than 13,000 grid points in the continental US. We run the AnEn model twice: 1) estimating 80-m wind speed by using predictor variables such as temperature, pressure, geopotential height, U-component and V-component of wind, 2) estimating air density by using predictors such as temperature, pressure, and relative humidity. We use the air density values to correct the standard wind power curves for different values of air density. The standard deviation of the ensemble members (i.e. ensemble spread) will be used as the degree of difficulty to predict wind power at different locations. The value of the correlation coefficient between the ensemble spread and the forecast error determines the appropriateness of this measure. This measure is prominent for wind farm developers as building wind farms in regions with higher predictability will reduce the real-time risks of operating in the electricity markets.

Conformational Analysis of Contrast Media for X-Ray Diagnostic Radiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solieman, A.H.M.

2010-01-01

The conformational analysis of iodinated non-ionic contrast agent, Iobitridol, was carried out using theoretical calculations to explore its conformational space, and to study different aspects connected with application of different search techniques. Monte Carlo (MC), random search (RS) and molecular dynamics (MD) based conformational search techniques were used to extract a reasonable-size sample that adequately represents and has an average behavior of the entire conformational ensemble.While MC is good for quick search for lowest energy conformer, RS is better in obtaining conformational sample that cover the whole conformational space and MD is the best for investigation of isomeric preferences inside the conformational ensemble at thermal equilibrium. Conformational analysis of the produced gas phase samples reveals that RS and MD methods could sufficiently present the 18 distinct isomeric classes that constitute the total conformational space of the Iobitridol. S samples of conformational space of Iobitridol are extensively studied, as it hypothetically cover the total conformational space. They are used to test the suitability of different methods (charge distribution methods, energy calculation methods) for Iobitridol molecular computations and internal structure forces (steric hindrance, resonance interaction), as well as dependences among the internal coordinates (dihedral angles correlations and coincidences). The atomic partial charge distribution is found to greatly affect the energy calculation for the molecular mechanics based conformational energy distributions. Further energy minimization of conformational sample by the quantum molecular orbital methods is crucial to obtain charge independent as well as energy balanced conformational sample.

Ensemble forecasting for renewable energy applications - status and current challenges for their generation and verification

Science.gov (United States)

Pinson, Pierre

2016-04-01

The operational management of renewable energy generation in power systems and electricity markets requires forecasts in various forms, e.g., deterministic or probabilistic, continuous or categorical, depending upon the decision process at hand. Besides, such forecasts may also be necessary at various spatial and temporal scales, from high temporal resolutions (in the order of minutes) and very localized for an offshore wind farm, to coarser temporal resolutions (hours) and covering a whole country for day-ahead power scheduling problems. As of today, weather predictions are a common input to forecasting methodologies for renewable energy generation. Since for most decision processes, optimal decisions can only be made if accounting for forecast uncertainties, ensemble predictions and density forecasts are increasingly seen as the product of choice. After discussing some of the basic approaches to obtaining ensemble forecasts of renewable power generation, it will be argued that space-time trajectories of renewable power production may or may not be necessitate post-processing ensemble forecasts for relevant weather variables. Example approaches and test case applications will be covered, e.g., looking at the Horns Rev offshore wind farm in Denmark, or gridded forecasts for the whole continental Europe. Eventually, we will illustrate some of the limitations of current frameworks to forecast verification, which actually make it difficult to fully assess the quality of post-processing approaches to obtain renewable energy predictions.

Influence of multiple well defined conformations on small-angle scattering of proteins in solution.

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, William T

2005-01-01

A common structural motif for many proteins comprises rigid domains connected by a flexible hinge or linker. The flexibility afforded by these domains is important for proper function and such proteins may be able to adopt more than one conformation in solution under equilibrium conditions. Small-angle scattering of proteins in solution samples all conformations that exist in the sampled volume during the time of the measurement, providing an ensemble-averaged intensity. In this paper, the influence of sampling an ensemble of well defined protein structures on the small-angle solution scattering intensity profile is examined through common analysis methods. Two tests were performed using simulated data: one with the extended and collapsed states of the bilobal calcium-binding protein calmodulin and the second with the catalytic subunit of protein kinase A, which has two globular domains connected by a glycine hinge. In addition to analyzing the simulated data for the radii of gyration Rg, distance distribution function P(r) and particle volume, shape restoration was applied to the simulated data. Rg and P(r) of the ensemble profiles could be easily mistaken for a single intermediate state. The particle volumes and models of the ensemble intensity profiles show that some indication of multiple conformations exists in the case of calmodulin, which manifests an enlarged volume and shapes that are clear superpositions of the conformations used. The effect on the structural parameters and models is much more subtle in the case of the catalytic subunit of protein kinase A. Examples of how noise influences the data and analyses are also presented. These examples demonstrate the loss of the indications of multiple conformations in cases where even broad distributions of structures exist. While the tests using calmodulin show that the ensemble states remain discernible from the other ensembles tested or a single partially collapsed state, the tests performed using the

Ensembler: Enabling High-Throughput Molecular Simulations at the Superfamily Scale.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel L Parton

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The rapidly expanding body of available genomic and protein structural data provides a rich resource for understanding protein dynamics with biomolecular simulation. While computational infrastructure has grown rapidly, simulations on an omics scale are not yet widespread, primarily because software infrastructure to enable simulations at this scale has not kept pace. It should now be possible to study protein dynamics across entire (superfamilies, exploiting both available structural biology data and conformational similarities across homologous proteins. Here, we present a new tool for enabling high-throughput simulation in the genomics era. Ensembler takes any set of sequences-from a single sequence to an entire superfamily-and shepherds them through various stages of modeling and refinement to produce simulation-ready structures. This includes comparative modeling to all relevant PDB structures (which may span multiple conformational states of interest, reconstruction of missing loops, addition of missing atoms, culling of nearly identical structures, assignment of appropriate protonation states, solvation in explicit solvent, and refinement and filtering with molecular simulation to ensure stable simulation. The output of this pipeline is an ensemble of structures ready for subsequent molecular simulations using computer clusters, supercomputers, or distributed computing projects like Folding@home. Ensembler thus automates much of the time-consuming process of preparing protein models suitable for simulation, while allowing scalability up to entire superfamilies. A particular advantage of this approach can be found in the construction of kinetic models of conformational dynamics-such as Markov state models (MSMs-which benefit from a diverse array of initial configurations that span the accessible conformational states to aid sampling. We demonstrate the power of this approach by constructing models for all catalytic domains in the human

A unified conformational selection and induced fit approach to protein-peptide docking.

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Mikael Trellet

Full Text Available Protein-peptide interactions are vital for the cell. They mediate, inhibit or serve as structural components in nearly 40% of all macromolecular interactions, and are often associated with diseases, making them interesting leads for protein drug design. In recent years, large-scale technologies have enabled exhaustive studies on the peptide recognition preferences for a number of peptide-binding domain families. Yet, the paucity of data regarding their molecular binding mechanisms together with their inherent flexibility makes the structural prediction of protein-peptide interactions very challenging. This leaves flexible docking as one of the few amenable computational techniques to model these complexes. We present here an ensemble, flexible protein-peptide docking protocol that combines conformational selection and induced fit mechanisms. Starting from an ensemble of three peptide conformations (extended, a-helix, polyproline-II, flexible docking with HADDOCK generates 79.4% of high quality models for bound/unbound and 69.4% for unbound/unbound docking when tested against the largest protein-peptide complexes benchmark dataset available to date. Conformational selection at the rigid-body docking stage successfully recovers the most relevant conformation for a given protein-peptide complex and the subsequent flexible refinement further improves the interface by up to 4.5 Å interface RMSD. Cluster-based scoring of the models results in a selection of near-native solutions in the top three for ∼75% of the successfully predicted cases. This unified conformational selection and induced fit approach to protein-peptide docking should open the route to the modeling of challenging systems such as disorder-order transitions taking place upon binding, significantly expanding the applicability limit of biomolecular interaction modeling by docking.

Generating maximally-path-entangled number states in two spin ensembles coupled to a superconducting flux qubit

Science.gov (United States)

Maleki, Yusef; Zheltikov, Aleksei M.

2018-01-01

An ensemble of nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers coupled to a circuit QED device is shown to enable an efficient, high-fidelity generation of high-N00N states. Instead of first creating entanglement and then increasing the number of entangled particles N , our source of high-N00N states first prepares a high-N Fock state in one of the NV ensembles and then entangles it to the rest of the system. With such a strategy, high-N N00N states can be generated in just a few operational steps with an extraordinary fidelity. Once prepared, such a state can be stored over a longer period of time due to the remarkably long coherence time of NV centers.

Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice.......This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....

An efficient method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of a fully coupled AOGCM without flux-adjustment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. J. Irvine

2013-09-01

Full Text Available We present a simple method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE of a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM, HadCM3, without requiring flux-adjustment. The aim was to produce an ensemble that samples parametric uncertainty in some key variables and gives a plausible representation of the climate. Six atmospheric parameters, a sea-ice parameter and an ocean parameter were jointly perturbed within a reasonable range to generate an initial group of 200 members. To screen out implausible ensemble members, 20 yr pre-industrial control simulations were run and members whose temperature responses to the parameter perturbations were projected to be outside the range of 13.6 ± 2 °C, i.e. near to the observed pre-industrial global mean, were discarded. Twenty-one members, including the standard unperturbed model, were accepted, covering almost the entire span of the eight parameters, challenging the argument that without flux-adjustment parameter ranges would be unduly restricted. This ensemble was used in 2 experiments; an 800 yr pre-industrial and a 150 yr quadrupled CO2 simulation. The behaviour of the PPE for the pre-industrial control compared well to ERA-40 reanalysis data and the CMIP3 ensemble for a number of surface and atmospheric column variables with the exception of a few members in the Tropics. However, we find that members of the PPE with low values of the entrainment rate coefficient show very large increases in upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapour concentrations in response to elevated CO2 and one member showed an implausible nonlinear climate response, and as such will be excluded from future experiments with this ensemble. The outcome of this study is a PPE of a fully-coupled AOGCM which samples parametric uncertainty and a simple methodology which would be applicable to other GCMs.

Mass generation within conformal invariant theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flato, M.; Guenin, M.

1981-01-01

The massless Yang-Mills theory is strongly conformally invariant and renormalizable; however, when masses are introduced the theory becomes nonrenormalizable and weakly conformally invariant. Conditions which recover strong conformal invariance are discussed in the letter. (author)

A fast ergodic algorithm for generating ensembles of equilateral random polygons

Science.gov (United States)

Varela, R.; Hinson, K.; Arsuaga, J.; Diao, Y.

2009-03-01

Knotted structures are commonly found in circular DNA and along the backbone of certain proteins. In order to properly estimate properties of these three-dimensional structures it is often necessary to generate large ensembles of simulated closed chains (i.e. polygons) of equal edge lengths (such polygons are called equilateral random polygons). However finding efficient algorithms that properly sample the space of equilateral random polygons is a difficult problem. Currently there are no proven algorithms that generate equilateral random polygons with its theoretical distribution. In this paper we propose a method that generates equilateral random polygons in a 'step-wise uniform' way. We prove that this method is ergodic in the sense that any given equilateral random polygon can be generated by this method and we show that the time needed to generate an equilateral random polygon of length n is linear in terms of n. These two properties make this algorithm a big improvement over the existing generating methods. Detailed numerical comparisons of our algorithm with other widely used algorithms are provided.

Bayesian energy landscape tilting: towards concordant models of molecular ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Beauchamp, Kyle A; Pande, Vijay S; Das, Rhiju

2014-03-18

Predicting biological structure has remained challenging for systems such as disordered proteins that take on myriad conformations. Hybrid simulation/experiment strategies have been undermined by difficulties in evaluating errors from computational model inaccuracies and data uncertainties. Building on recent proposals from maximum entropy theory and nonequilibrium thermodynamics, we address these issues through a Bayesian energy landscape tilting (BELT) scheme for computing Bayesian hyperensembles over conformational ensembles. BELT uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to directly sample maximum-entropy conformational ensembles consistent with a set of input experimental observables. To test this framework, we apply BELT to model trialanine, starting from disagreeing simulations with the force fields ff96, ff99, ff99sbnmr-ildn, CHARMM27, and OPLS-AA. BELT incorporation of limited chemical shift and (3)J measurements gives convergent values of the peptide's α, β, and PPII conformational populations in all cases. As a test of predictive power, all five BELT hyperensembles recover set-aside measurements not used in the fitting and report accurate errors, even when starting from highly inaccurate simulations. BELT's principled framework thus enables practical predictions for complex biomolecular systems from discordant simulations and sparse data. Copyright © 2014 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan D. Keller

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.

Comparison of projection skills of deterministic ensemble methods using pseudo-simulation data generated from multivariate Gaussian distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Seok-Geun; Suh, Myoung-Seok

2017-07-01

The projection skills of five ensemble methods were analyzed according to simulation skills, training period, and ensemble members, using 198 sets of pseudo-simulation data (PSD) produced by random number generation assuming the simulated temperature of regional climate models. The PSD sets were classified into 18 categories according to the relative magnitude of bias, variance ratio, and correlation coefficient, where each category had 11 sets (including 1 truth set) with 50 samples. The ensemble methods used were as follows: equal weighted averaging without bias correction (EWA_NBC), EWA with bias correction (EWA_WBC), weighted ensemble averaging based on root mean square errors and correlation (WEA_RAC), WEA based on the Taylor score (WEA_Tay), and multivariate linear regression (Mul_Reg). The projection skills of the ensemble methods improved generally as compared with the best member for each category. However, their projection skills are significantly affected by the simulation skills of the ensemble member. The weighted ensemble methods showed better projection skills than non-weighted methods, in particular, for the PSD categories having systematic biases and various correlation coefficients. The EWA_NBC showed considerably lower projection skills than the other methods, in particular, for the PSD categories with systematic biases. Although Mul_Reg showed relatively good skills, it showed strong sensitivity to the PSD categories, training periods, and number of members. On the other hand, the WEA_Tay and WEA_RAC showed relatively superior skills in both the accuracy and reliability for all the sensitivity experiments. This indicates that WEA_Tay and WEA_RAC are applicable even for simulation data with systematic biases, a short training period, and a small number of ensemble members.

Predicting Three-Dimensional Conformations of Peptides Constructed of Only Glycine, Alanine, Aspartic Acid, and Valine

Science.gov (United States)

Oda, Akifumi; Fukuyoshi, Shuichi

2015-06-01

The GADV hypothesis is a form of the protein world hypothesis, which suggests that life originated from proteins (Lacey et al. 1999; Ikehara 2002; Andras 2006). In the GADV hypothesis, life is thought to have originated from primitive proteins constructed of only glycine, alanine, aspartic acid, and valine ([GADV]-proteins). In this study, the three-dimensional (3D) conformations of randomly generated short [GADV]-peptides were computationally investigated using replica-exchange molecular dynamics (REMD) simulations (Sugita and Okamoto 1999). Because the peptides used in this study consisted of only 20 residues each, they could not form certain 3D structures. However, the conformational tendencies of the peptides were elucidated by analyzing the conformational ensembles generated by REMD simulations. The results indicate that secondary structures can be formed in several randomly generated [GADV]-peptides. A long helical structure was found in one of the hydrophobic peptides, supporting the conjecture of the GADV hypothesis that many peptides aggregated to form peptide multimers with enzymatic activity in the primordial soup. In addition, these results indicate that REMD simulations can be used for the structural investigation of short peptides.

Calculating ensemble averaged descriptions of protein rigidity without sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

González, Luis C; Wang, Hui; Livesay, Dennis R; Jacobs, Donald J

2012-01-01

Previous works have demonstrated that protein rigidity is related to thermodynamic stability, especially under conditions that favor formation of native structure. Mechanical network rigidity properties of a single conformation are efficiently calculated using the integer body-bar Pebble Game (PG) algorithm. However, thermodynamic properties require averaging over many samples from the ensemble of accessible conformations to accurately account for fluctuations in network topology. We have developed a mean field Virtual Pebble Game (VPG) that represents the ensemble of networks by a single effective network. That is, all possible number of distance constraints (or bars) that can form between a pair of rigid bodies is replaced by the average number. The resulting effective network is viewed as having weighted edges, where the weight of an edge quantifies its capacity to absorb degrees of freedom. The VPG is interpreted as a flow problem on this effective network, which eliminates the need to sample. Across a nonredundant dataset of 272 protein structures, we apply the VPG to proteins for the first time. Our results show numerically and visually that the rigidity characterizations of the VPG accurately reflect the ensemble averaged [Formula: see text] properties. This result positions the VPG as an efficient alternative to understand the mechanical role that chemical interactions play in maintaining protein stability.

Prediction of conformationally dependent atomic multipole moments in carbohydrates.

Science.gov (United States)

Cardamone, Salvatore; Popelier, Paul L A

2015-12-15

The conformational flexibility of carbohydrates is challenging within the field of computational chemistry. This flexibility causes the electron density to change, which leads to fluctuating atomic multipole moments. Quantum Chemical Topology (QCT) allows for the partitioning of an "atom in a molecule," thus localizing electron density to finite atomic domains, which permits the unambiguous evaluation of atomic multipole moments. By selecting an ensemble of physically realistic conformers of a chemical system, one evaluates the various multipole moments at defined points in configuration space. The subsequent implementation of the machine learning method kriging delivers the evaluation of an analytical function, which smoothly interpolates between these points. This allows for the prediction of atomic multipole moments at new points in conformational space, not trained for but within prediction range. In this work, we demonstrate that the carbohydrates erythrose and threose are amenable to the above methodology. We investigate how kriging models respond when the training ensemble incorporating multiple energy minima and their environment in conformational space. Additionally, we evaluate the gains in predictive capacity of our models as the size of the training ensemble increases. We believe this approach to be entirely novel within the field of carbohydrates. For a modest training set size of 600, more than 90% of the external test configurations have an error in the total (predicted) electrostatic energy (relative to ab initio) of maximum 1 kJ mol(-1) for open chains and just over 90% an error of maximum 4 kJ mol(-1) for rings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

On the Generation of Random Ensembles of Qubits and Qutrits Computing Separability Probabilities for Fixed Rank States

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Khvedelidze Arsen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The generation of random mixed states is discussed, aiming for the computation of probabilistic characteristics of composite finite dimensional quantum systems. In particular, we consider the generation of random Hilbert-Schmidt and Bures ensembles of qubit and qutrit pairs and compute the corresponding probabilities to find a separable state among the states of a fixed rank.

Black hole evaporation in conformal gravity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bambi, Cosimo; Rachwał, Lesław [Center for Field Theory and Particle Physics and Department of Physics, Fudan University, 220 Handan Road, 200433 Shanghai (China); Modesto, Leonardo [Department of Physics, Southern University of Science and Technology, 1088 Xueyuan Road, Shenzhen 518055 (China); Porey, Shiladitya, E-mail: bambi@fudan.edu.cn, E-mail: lmodesto@sustc.edu.cn, E-mail: shilp@iitk.ac.in, E-mail: rachwal@fudan.edu.cn [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology, 208016 Kanpur (India)

2017-09-01

We study the formation and the evaporation of a spherically symmetric black hole in conformal gravity. From the collapse of a spherically symmetric thin shell of radiation, we find a singularity-free non-rotating black hole. This black hole has the same Hawking temperature as a Schwarzschild black hole with the same mass, and it completely evaporates either in a finite or in an infinite time, depending on the ensemble. We consider the analysis both in the canonical and in the micro-canonical statistical ensembles. Last, we discuss the corresponding Penrose diagram of this physical process.

Investigating energy-based pool structure selection in the structure ensemble modeling with experimental distance constraints: The example from a multidomain protein Pub1.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Guanhua; Liu, Wei; Bao, Chenglong; Tong, Dudu; Ji, Hui; Shen, Zuowei; Yang, Daiwen; Lu, Lanyuan

2018-05-01

The structural variations of multidomain proteins with flexible parts mediate many biological processes, and a structure ensemble can be determined by selecting a weighted combination of representative structures from a simulated structure pool, producing the best fit to experimental constraints such as interatomic distance. In this study, a hybrid structure-based and physics-based atomistic force field with an efficient sampling strategy is adopted to simulate a model di-domain protein against experimental paramagnetic relaxation enhancement (PRE) data that correspond to distance constraints. The molecular dynamics simulations produce a wide range of conformations depicted on a protein energy landscape. Subsequently, a conformational ensemble recovered with low-energy structures and the minimum-size restraint is identified in good agreement with experimental PRE rates, and the result is also supported by chemical shift perturbations and small-angle X-ray scattering data. It is illustrated that the regularizations of energy and ensemble-size prevent an arbitrary interpretation of protein conformations. Moreover, energy is found to serve as a critical control to refine the structure pool and prevent data overfitting, because the absence of energy regularization exposes ensemble construction to the noise from high-energy structures and causes a more ambiguous representation of protein conformations. Finally, we perform structure-ensemble optimizations with a topology-based structure pool, to enhance the understanding on the ensemble results from different sources of pool candidates. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Optimization of the GBMV2 implicit solvent force field for accurate simulation of protein conformational equilibria.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kuo Hao; Chen, Jianhan

2017-06-15

Accurate treatment of solvent environment is critical for reliable simulations of protein conformational equilibria. Implicit treatment of solvation, such as using the generalized Born (GB) class of models arguably provides an optimal balance between computational efficiency and physical accuracy. Yet, GB models are frequently plagued by a tendency to generate overly compact structures. The physical origins of this drawback are relatively well understood, and the key to a balanced implicit solvent protein force field is careful optimization of physical parameters to achieve a sufficient level of cancellation of errors. The latter has been hampered by the difficulty of generating converged conformational ensembles of non-trivial model proteins using the popular replica exchange sampling technique. Here, we leverage improved sampling efficiency of a newly developed multi-scale enhanced sampling technique to re-optimize the generalized-Born with molecular volume (GBMV2) implicit solvent model with the CHARMM36 protein force field. Recursive optimization of key GBMV2 parameters (such as input radii) and protein torsion profiles (via the CMAP torsion cross terms) has led to a more balanced GBMV2 protein force field that recapitulates the structures and stabilities of both helical and β-hairpin model peptides. Importantly, this force field appears to be free of the over-compaction bias, and can generate structural ensembles of several intrinsically disordered proteins of various lengths that seem highly consistent with available experimental data. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Quasideterministic generation of maximally entangled states of two mesoscopic atomic ensembles by adiabatic quantum feedback

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Lisi, Antonio; De Siena, Silvio; Illuminati, Fabrizio; Vitali, David

2005-01-01

We introduce an efficient, quasideterministic scheme to generate maximally entangled states of two atomic ensembles. The scheme is based on quantum nondemolition measurements of total atomic populations and on adiabatic quantum feedback conditioned by the measurements outputs. The high efficiency of the scheme is tested and confirmed numerically for ideal photodetection as well as in the presence of losses

Calculating ensemble averaged descriptions of protein rigidity without sampling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis C González

Full Text Available Previous works have demonstrated that protein rigidity is related to thermodynamic stability, especially under conditions that favor formation of native structure. Mechanical network rigidity properties of a single conformation are efficiently calculated using the integer body-bar Pebble Game (PG algorithm. However, thermodynamic properties require averaging over many samples from the ensemble of accessible conformations to accurately account for fluctuations in network topology. We have developed a mean field Virtual Pebble Game (VPG that represents the ensemble of networks by a single effective network. That is, all possible number of distance constraints (or bars that can form between a pair of rigid bodies is replaced by the average number. The resulting effective network is viewed as having weighted edges, where the weight of an edge quantifies its capacity to absorb degrees of freedom. The VPG is interpreted as a flow problem on this effective network, which eliminates the need to sample. Across a nonredundant dataset of 272 protein structures, we apply the VPG to proteins for the first time. Our results show numerically and visually that the rigidity characterizations of the VPG accurately reflect the ensemble averaged [Formula: see text] properties. This result positions the VPG as an efficient alternative to understand the mechanical role that chemical interactions play in maintaining protein stability.

Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Networks Ensemble as ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Marquardt algorithm by varying conditions such as inputs, hidden neurons, initialization, training sets and random Gaussian noise injection to ... Several such ensembles formed the population which was evolved to generate the fittest ensemble.

Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.

2017-12-01

A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.

Evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts generated through post-processing in a Canadian catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Jha, Sanjeev K.; Shrestha, Durga L.; Stadnyk, Tricia A.; Coulibaly, Paulin

2018-03-01

Flooding in Canada is often caused by heavy rainfall during the snowmelt period. Hydrologic forecast centers rely on precipitation forecasts obtained from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to enforce hydrological models for streamflow forecasting. The uncertainties in raw quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are enhanced by physiography and orography effects over a diverse landscape, particularly in the western catchments of Canada. A Bayesian post-processing approach called rainfall post-processing (RPP), developed in Australia (Robertson et al., 2013; Shrestha et al., 2015), has been applied to assess its forecast performance in a Canadian catchment. Raw QPFs obtained from two sources, Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast 2 project, from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Global Deterministic Forecast System (GDPS), from Environment and Climate Change Canada, are used in this study. The study period from January 2013 to December 2015 covered a major flood event in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Post-processed results show that the RPP is able to remove the bias and reduce the errors of both GEFS and GDPS forecasts. Ensembles generated from the RPP reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty.

REAL - Ensemble radar precipitation estimation for hydrology in a mountainous region

OpenAIRE

Germann, Urs; Berenguer Ferrer, Marc; Sempere Torres, Daniel; Zappa, Massimiliano

2009-01-01

An elegant solution to characterise the residual errors in radar precipitation estimates is to generate an ensemble of precipitation fields. The paper proposes a radar ensemble generator designed for usage in the Alps using LU decomposition (REAL), and presents first results from a real-time implementation coupling the radar ensemble with a semi-distributed rainfall–runoff model for flash flood modelling in a steep Alpine catchment. Each member of the radar ensemble is a possible realisati...

Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arritt, Raymond W.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Takle, Eugene S.

2004-01-01

The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average...

Concerted motions in HIV-1 TAR RNA may allow access to bound state conformations: RNA dynamics from NMR residual dipolar couplings.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Hashimi, Hashim M; Gosser, Yuying; Gorin, Andrey; Hu, Weidong; Majumdar, Ananya; Patel, Dinshaw J

2002-01-11

Ground-state dynamics in RNA is a critical precursor for structural adaptation observed ubiquitously in protein-RNA recognition. A tertiary conformational analysis of the stem-loop structural element in the transactivation response element (TAR) from human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-I) RNA is presented using recently introduced NMR methods that rely on the measurement of residual dipolar couplings (RDC) in partially oriented systems. Order matrix analysis of RDC data provides evidence for inter-helical motions that are of amplitude 46(+/-4) degrees, of random directional character, and that are executed about an average conformation with an inter-helical angle between 44 degrees and 54 degrees. The generated ensemble of TAR conformations have different organizations of functional groups responsible for interaction with the trans-activator protein Tat, including conformations similar to the previously characterized bound-state conformation. These results demonstrate the utility of RDC-NMR for simultaneously characterizing RNA tertiary dynamics and average conformation, and indicate an avenue for TAR complex formation involving tertiary structure capture. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

A short-range multi-model ensemble weather prediction system for South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Landman, S

2010-09-01

Full Text Available prediction system (EPS) at the South African Weather Service (SAWS) are examined. The ensemble consists of different forecasts from the 12-km LAM of the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) and the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) covering the South...

Structure and conformational dynamics of the domain 5 RNA hairpin of a bacterial group II intron revealed by solution nuclear magnetic resonance and molecular dynamics simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Pechlaner, Maria; Sigel, Roland K O; van Gunsteren, Wilfred F; Dolenc, Jožica

2013-10-08

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) nuclear Overhauser enhancement (NOE) data obtained for a 35-nucleotide RNA segment of a bacterial group II intron indicate a helical hairpin structure in which three parts, a terminal pentaloop, a bulge, and a G-A mismatch, display no Watson-Crick base pairing. The 668 NOE upper distance bounds for atom pairs are insufficient to uniquely determine the conformation of these segments. Therefore, molecular dynamics simulations including time-averaged distance restraints have been used to obtain a conformational ensemble compatible with the observed NMR data. The ensemble shows alternating hydrogen bonding patterns for the mentioned segments. In particular, in the pentaloop and in the bulge, the hydrogen bonding networks correspond to distinct conformational clusters that could not be captured by using conventional single-structure refinement techniques. This implies that, to obtain a realistic picture of the conformational ensemble of such flexible biomolecules, it is necessary to properly account for the conformational variability in the structure refinement of RNA fragments.

Evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts generated through post-processing in a Canadian catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. K. Jha

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Flooding in Canada is often caused by heavy rainfall during the snowmelt period. Hydrologic forecast centers rely on precipitation forecasts obtained from numerical weather prediction (NWP models to enforce hydrological models for streamflow forecasting. The uncertainties in raw quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs are enhanced by physiography and orography effects over a diverse landscape, particularly in the western catchments of Canada. A Bayesian post-processing approach called rainfall post-processing (RPP, developed in Australia (Robertson et al., 2013; Shrestha et al., 2015, has been applied to assess its forecast performance in a Canadian catchment. Raw QPFs obtained from two sources, Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS Reforecast 2 project, from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Global Deterministic Forecast System (GDPS, from Environment and Climate Change Canada, are used in this study. The study period from January 2013 to December 2015 covered a major flood event in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Post-processed results show that the RPP is able to remove the bias and reduce the errors of both GEFS and GDPS forecasts. Ensembles generated from the RPP reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty.

Initialization methods and ensembles generation for the IPSL GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Labetoulle, Sonia; Mignot, Juliette; Guilyardi, Eric; Denvil, Sébastien; Masson, Sébastien

2010-05-01

The protocol used and developments made for decadal and seasonal predictability studies at IPSL (Paris, France) are presented. The strategy chosen is to initialize the IPSL-CM5 (NEMO ocean and LMDZ atmosphere) model only at the ocean-atmosphere interface, following the guidance and expertise gained from ocean-only NEMO experiments. Two novel approaches are presented for initializing the coupled system. First, a nudging of sea surface temperature and wind stress towards available reanalysis is made with the surface salinity climatologically restored. Second, the heat, salt and momentum fluxes received by the ocean model are computed as a linear combination of the fluxes computed by the atmospheric model and by a CORE-style bulk formulation using up-to-date reanalysis. The steps that led to these choices are presented, as well as a description of the code adaptation and a comparison of the computational cost of both methods. The strategy for the generation of ensembles at the end of the initialization phase is also presented. We show how the technical environment of IPSL-CM5 (LibIGCM) was modified to achieve these goals.

Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman

2015-05-01

The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of

Conformational Ensembles of an Intrinsically Disordered Protein pKID with and without a KIX Domain in Explicit Solvent Investigated by All-Atom Multicanonical Molecular Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haruki Nakamura

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The phosphorylated kinase-inducible activation domain (pKID adopts a helix–loop–helix structure upon binding to its partner KIX, although it is unstructured in the unbound state. The N-terminal and C-terminal regions of pKID, which adopt helices in the complex, are called, respectively, αA and αB. We performed all-atom multicanonical molecular dynamics simulations of pKID with and without KIX in explicit solvents to generate conformational ensembles. Although the unbound pKID was disordered overall, αA and αB exhibited a nascent helix propensity; the propensity of αA was stronger than that of αB, which agrees with experimental results. In the bound state, the free-energy landscape of αB involved two low free-energy fractions: native-like and non-native fractions. This result suggests that αB folds according to the induced-fit mechanism. The αB-helix direction was well aligned as in the NMR complex structure, although the αA helix exhibited high flexibility. These results also agree quantitatively with experimental observations. We have detected that the αB helix can bind to another site of KIX, to which another protein MLL also binds with the adopting helix. Consequently, MLL can facilitate pKID binding to the pKID-binding site by blocking the MLL-binding site. This also supports experimentally obtained results.

The Ensembl REST API: Ensembl Data for Any Language.

Science.gov (United States)

Yates, Andrew; Beal, Kathryn; Keenan, Stephen; McLaren, William; Pignatelli, Miguel; Ritchie, Graham R S; Ruffier, Magali; Taylor, Kieron; Vullo, Alessandro; Flicek, Paul

2015-01-01

We present a Web service to access Ensembl data using Representational State Transfer (REST). The Ensembl REST server enables the easy retrieval of a wide range of Ensembl data by most programming languages, using standard formats such as JSON and FASTA while minimizing client work. We also introduce bindings to the popular Ensembl Variant Effect Predictor tool permitting large-scale programmatic variant analysis independent of any specific programming language. The Ensembl REST API can be accessed at http://rest.ensembl.org and source code is freely available under an Apache 2.0 license from http://github.com/Ensembl/ensembl-rest. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

Enrichment of Druggable Conformations from Apo Protein Structures Using Cosolvent-Accelerated Molecular Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Kalenkiewicz

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Here we describe the development of an improved workflow for utilizing experimental and simulated protein conformations in the structure-based design of inhibitors for anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 family proteins. Traditional structure-based approaches on similar targets are often constrained by the sparsity of available structures and difficulties in finding lead compounds that dock against flat, flexible protein-protein interaction surfaces. By employing computational docking of known small molecule inhibitors, we have demonstrated that structural ensembles derived from either accelerated MD (aMD or MD in the presence of an organic cosolvent generally give better scores than those assessed from analogous conventional MD. Furthermore, conformations obtained from combined cosolvent aMD simulations started with the apo-Bcl-xL structure yielded better average and minimum docking scores for known binders than an ensemble of 72 experimental apo- and ligand-bound Bcl-xL structures. A detailed analysis of the simulated conformations indicates that the aMD effectively enhanced conformational sampling of the flexible helices flanking the main Bcl-xL binding groove, permitting the cosolvent acting as small ligands to penetrate more deeply into the binding pocket and shape ligand-bound conformations not evident in conventional simulations. We believe this approach could be useful for identifying inhibitors against other protein-protein interaction systems involving highly flexible binding sites, particularly for targets with less accumulated structural data.

Risk assessments of regional climate change over Europe: generation of probabilistic ensemble and uncertainty assessment for EURO-CODEX

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, J.; Kopp, R. E.

2017-12-01

Quantitative risk analysis of regional climate change is crucial for risk management and impact assessment of climate change. Two major challenges to assessing the risks of climate change are: CMIP5 model runs, which drive EURO-CODEX downscaling runs, do not cover the full range of uncertainty of future projections; Climate models may underestimate the probability of tail risks (i.e. extreme events). To overcome the difficulties, this study offers a viable avenue, where a set of probabilistic climate ensemble is generated using the Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) method. The probabilistic ensembles for temperature and precipitation are used to assess the range of uncertainty covered by five bias-corrected simulations from the high-resolution (0.11º) EURO-CODEX database, which are selected by the PESETA (The Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) III project. Results show that the distribution of SMME ensemble is notably wider than both distribution of raw ensemble of GCMs and the spread of the five EURO-CORDEX in RCP8.5. Tail risks are well presented by the SMME ensemble. Both SMME ensemble and EURO-CORDEX projections are aggregated to administrative level, and are integrated into impact functions of PESETA III to assess climate risks in Europe. To further evaluate the uncertainties introduced by the downscaling process, we compare the 5 runs from EURO-CORDEX with runs from the corresponding GCMs. Time series of regional mean, spatial patterns, and climate indices are examined for the future climate (2080-2099) deviating from the present climate (1981-2010). The downscaling processes do not appear to be trend-preserving, e.g. the increase in regional mean temperature from EURO-CORDEX is slower than that from the corresponding GCM. The spatial pattern comparison reveals that the differences between each pair of GCM and EURO-CORDEX are small in winter. In summer, the temperatures of EURO

Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik A; Madsen, Henrik; Kariniotakis, George

2007-01-01

This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the dispersion of ensemble members for a single prediction horizon, or over a set of successive look-ahead times. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and energy imbalances). Wind power ensemble predictions are derived from the transformation of ECMWF and NCEP ensembles of meteorological variables to power, as well as by a lagged average approach alternative. The ability of risk indices calculated from the various types of ensembles forecasts to resolve among situations with different levels of uncertainty is discussed

Tailored Random Graph Ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, E S; Annibale, A; Coolen, A C C

2013-01-01

Tailored graph ensembles are a developing bridge between biological networks and statistical mechanics. The aim is to use this concept to generate a suite of rigorous tools that can be used to quantify and compare the topology of cellular signalling networks, such as protein-protein interaction networks and gene regulation networks. We calculate exact and explicit formulae for the leading orders in the system size of the Shannon entropies of random graph ensembles constrained with degree distribution and degree-degree correlation. We also construct an ergodic detailed balance Markov chain with non-trivial acceptance probabilities which converges to a strictly uniform measure and is based on edge swaps that conserve all degrees. The acceptance probabilities can be generalized to define Markov chains that target any alternative desired measure on the space of directed or undirected graphs, in order to generate graphs with more sophisticated topological features.

Structural alphabets derived from attractors in conformational space

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kleinjung Jens

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The hierarchical and partially redundant nature of protein structures justifies the definition of frequently occurring conformations of short fragments as 'states'. Collections of selected representatives for these states define Structural Alphabets, describing the most typical local conformations within protein structures. These alphabets form a bridge between the string-oriented methods of sequence analysis and the coordinate-oriented methods of protein structure analysis. Results A Structural Alphabet has been derived by clustering all four-residue fragments of a high-resolution subset of the protein data bank and extracting the high-density states as representative conformational states. Each fragment is uniquely defined by a set of three independent angles corresponding to its degrees of freedom, capturing in simple and intuitive terms the properties of the conformational space. The fragments of the Structural Alphabet are equivalent to the conformational attractors and therefore yield a most informative encoding of proteins. Proteins can be reconstructed within the experimental uncertainty in structure determination and ensembles of structures can be encoded with accuracy and robustness. Conclusions The density-based Structural Alphabet provides a novel tool to describe local conformations and it is specifically suitable for application in studies of protein dynamics.

Narrowband NIR-Induced In Situ Generation of the High-Energy Trans Conformer of Trichloroacetic Acid Isolated in Solid Nitrogen and its Spontaneous Decay by Tunneling to the Low-Energy Cis Conformer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. F. G. Apóstolo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The monomeric form of trichloroacetic acid (CCl3COOH; TCA was isolated in a cryogenic nitrogen matrix (15 K and the higher energy trans conformer (O=C–O–H dihedral: 180° was generated in situ by narrowband near-infrared selective excitation the 1st OH stretching overtone of the low-energy cis conformer (O=C–O–H dihedral: 0°. The spontaneous decay, by tunneling, of the generated high-energy conformer into the cis form was then evaluated and compared with those observed previously for the trans conformers of acetic and formic acids in identical experimental conditions. The much faster decay of the high-energy conformer of TCA compared to both formic and acetic acids (by ~35 and ca. 25 times, respectively was found to correlate well with the lower energy barrier for the trans→cis isomerization in the studied compound. The experimental studies received support from quantum chemistry calculations undertaken at the DFT(B3LYP/cc-pVDZ level of approximation, which allowed a detailed characterization of the potential energy surface of the molecule and the detailed assignment of the infrared spectra of the two conformers.

Two-loop conformal generators for leading-twist operators in QCD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, V.M.; Strohmaier, M.; Manashov, A.N.; Hamburg Univ.; Moch, S.

2016-01-01

QCD evolution equations in minimal subtraction schemes have a hidden symmetry: One can construct three operators that commute with the evolution kernel and form an SL(2) algebra, i.e. they satisfy (exactly) the SL(2) commutation relations. In this paper we find explicit expressions for these operators to two-loop accuracy going over to QCD in non-integer d=4-2ε space-time dimensions at the intermediate stage. In this way conformal symmetry of QCD is restored on quantum level at the specially chosen (critical) value of the coupling, and at the same time the theory is regularized allowing one to use the standard renormalization procedure for the relevant Feynman diagrams. Quantum corrections to conformal generators in d=4-2ε effectively correspond to the conformal symmetry breaking in the physical theory in four dimensions and the SL(2) commutation relations lead to nontrivial constraints on the renormalization group equations for composite operators. This approach is valid to all orders in perturbation theory and the result includes automatically all terms that can be identified as due to a nonvanishing QCD β-function (in the physical theory in four dimensions). Our result can be used to derive three-loop evolution equations for flavor-nonsinglet quark-antiquark operators including mixing with the operators containing total derivatives. These equations govern, e.g., the scale dependence of generalized hadron parton distributions and light-cone meson distribution amplitudes.

Conformational Dynamics of apo-GlnBP Revealed by Experimental and Computational Analysis

KAUST Repository

Feng, Yitao

2016-10-13

The glutamine binding protein (GlnBP) binds l-glutamine and cooperates with its cognate transporters during glutamine uptake. Crystal structure analysis has revealed an open and a closed conformation for apo- and holo-GlnBP, respectively. However, the detailed conformational dynamics have remained unclear. Herein, we combined NMR spectroscopy, MD simulations, and single-molecule FRET techniques to decipher the conformational dynamics of apo-GlnBP. The NMR residual dipolar couplings of apo-GlnBP were in good agreement with a MD-derived structure ensemble consisting of four metastable states. The open and closed conformations are the two major states. This four-state model was further validated by smFRET experiments and suggests the conformational selection mechanism in ligand recognition of GlnBP. © 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Conformational Dynamics of apo-GlnBP Revealed by Experimental and Computational Analysis

KAUST Repository

Feng, Yitao; Zhang, Lu; Wu, Shaowen; Liu, Zhijun; Gao, Xin; Zhang, Xu; Liu, Maili; Liu, Jianwei; Huang, Xuhui; Wang, Wenning

2016-01-01

The glutamine binding protein (GlnBP) binds l-glutamine and cooperates with its cognate transporters during glutamine uptake. Crystal structure analysis has revealed an open and a closed conformation for apo- and holo-GlnBP, respectively. However, the detailed conformational dynamics have remained unclear. Herein, we combined NMR spectroscopy, MD simulations, and single-molecule FRET techniques to decipher the conformational dynamics of apo-GlnBP. The NMR residual dipolar couplings of apo-GlnBP were in good agreement with a MD-derived structure ensemble consisting of four metastable states. The open and closed conformations are the two major states. This four-state model was further validated by smFRET experiments and suggests the conformational selection mechanism in ligand recognition of GlnBP. © 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Mutation-Induced Population Shift in the MexR Conformational Ensemble Disengages DNA Binding: A Novel Mechanism for MarR Family Derepression.

Science.gov (United States)

Anandapadamanaban, Madhanagopal; Pilstål, Robert; Andresen, Cecilia; Trewhella, Jill; Moche, Martin; Wallner, Björn; Sunnerhagen, Maria

2016-08-02

MexR is a repressor of the MexAB-OprM multidrug efflux pump operon of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, where DNA-binding impairing mutations lead to multidrug resistance (MDR). Surprisingly, the crystal structure of an MDR-conferring MexR mutant R21W (2.19 Å) presented here is closely similar to wild-type MexR. However, our extended analysis, by molecular dynamics and small-angle X-ray scattering, reveals that the mutation stabilizes a ground state that is deficient of DNA binding and is shared by both mutant and wild-type MexR, whereas the DNA-binding state is only transiently reached by the more flexible wild-type MexR. This population shift in the conformational ensemble is effected by mutation-induced allosteric coupling of contact networks that are independent in the wild-type protein. We propose that the MexR-R21W mutant mimics derepression by small-molecule binding to MarR proteins, and that the described allosteric model based on population shifts may also apply to other MarR family members. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

2016-01-01

Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods.

Conformational analysis by intersection: CONAN.

Science.gov (United States)

Smellie, Andrew; Stanton, Robert; Henne, Randy; Teig, Steve

2003-01-15

As high throughput techniques in chemical synthesis and screening improve, more demands are placed on computer assisted design and virtual screening. Many of these computational methods require one or more three-dimensional conformations for molecules, creating a demand for a conformational analysis tool that can rapidly and robustly cover the low-energy conformational spaces of small molecules. A new algorithm of intersection is presented here, which quickly generates (on average heuristics are applied after intersection to generate a small representative collection of conformations that span the conformational space. In a study of approximately 97,000 randomly selected molecules from the MDDR, results are presented that explore these conformations and their ability to cover low-energy conformational space. Copyright 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem 24: 10-20, 2003

Evaluation of LDA Ensembles Classifiers for Brain Computer Interface

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arjona, Cristian; Pentácolo, José; Gareis, Iván; Atum, Yanina; Gentiletti, Gerardo; Acevedo, Rubén; Rufiner, Leonardo

2011-01-01

The Brain Computer Interface (BCI) translates brain activity into computer commands. To increase the performance of the BCI, to decode the user intentions it is necessary to get better the feature extraction and classification techniques. In this article the performance of a three linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers ensemble is studied. The system based on ensemble can theoretically achieved better classification results than the individual counterpart, regarding individual classifier generation algorithm and the procedures for combine their outputs. Classic algorithms based on ensembles such as bagging and boosting are discussed here. For the application on BCI, it was concluded that the generated results using ER and AUC as performance index do not give enough information to establish which configuration is better.

Using histograms to introduce randomization in the generation of ensembles of decision trees

Science.gov (United States)

Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick; Littau, David

2005-02-22

A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to create a histogram, a module to evaluate a potential split according to some criterion using the histogram, a module to select a split point randomly in an interval around the best split, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method includes the steps of reading the data; creating a histogram; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using the histogram, selecting a split point randomly in an interval around the best split, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.

Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buckley, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Chiswell, S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Kurzeja, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Maze, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Viner, B. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Werth, D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

2017-09-29

Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.

Stochastic Prediction of Wind Generating Resources Using the Enhanced Ensemble Model for Jeju Island’s Wind Farms in South Korea

OpenAIRE

Deockho Kim; Jin Hur

2017-01-01

Due to the intermittency of wind power generation, it is very hard to manage its system operation and planning. In order to incorporate higher wind power penetrations into power systems that maintain secure and economic power system operation, an accurate and efficient estimation of wind power outputs is needed. In this paper, we propose the stochastic prediction of wind generating resources using an enhanced ensemble model for Jeju Island’s wind farms in South Korea. When selecting the poten...

Generalized Macdonald polynomials, spectral duality for conformal blocks and AGT correspondence in five dimensions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zenkevich, Yegor [ITEP,25 Bolshaya Cheremushkinskaya street, Moscow (Russian Federation); Institute for Nuclear Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences,7a Prospekt 60-letiya Oktyabrya, Moscow (Russian Federation); NRNU Moscow Engineering Physics Institute,31 Kasirskoe chaussee, Moscow (Russian Federation)

2015-05-26

We study five dimensional AGT correspondence by means of the q-deformed beta-ensemble technique. We provide a special basis of states in the q-deformed CFT Hilbert space consisting of generalized Macdonald polynomials, derive the loop equations for the beta-ensemble and obtain the factorization formulas for the corresponding matrix elements. We prove the spectral duality for SU(2) Nekrasov functions and discuss its meaning for conformal blocks. We also clarify the relation between topological strings and q-Liouville vertex operators.

Generalized Macdonald polynomials, spectral duality for conformal blocks and AGT correspondence in five dimensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zenkevich, Yegor

2015-01-01

We study five dimensional AGT correspondence by means of the q-deformed beta-ensemble technique. We provide a special basis of states in the q-deformed CFT Hilbert space consisting of generalized Macdonald polynomials, derive the loop equations for the beta-ensemble and obtain the factorization formulas for the corresponding matrix elements. We prove the spectral duality for SU(2) Nekrasov functions and discuss its meaning for conformal blocks. We also clarify the relation between topological strings and q-Liouville vertex operators.

Ensemble Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio

2012-03-01

Ensemble methods are statistical and computational learning procedures reminiscent of the human social learning behavior of seeking several opinions before making any crucial decision. The idea of combining the opinions of different "experts" to obtain an overall “ensemble” decision is rooted in our culture at least from the classical age of ancient Greece, and it has been formalized during the Enlightenment with the Condorcet Jury Theorem[45]), which proved that the judgment of a committee is superior to those of individuals, provided the individuals have reasonable competence. Ensembles are sets of learning machines that combine in some way their decisions, or their learning algorithms, or different views of data, or other specific characteristics to obtain more reliable and more accurate predictions in supervised and unsupervised learning problems [48,116]. A simple example is represented by the majority vote ensemble, by which the decisions of different learning machines are combined, and the class that receives the majority of “votes” (i.e., the class predicted by the majority of the learning machines) is the class predicted by the overall ensemble [158]. In the literature, a plethora of terms other than ensembles has been used, such as fusion, combination, aggregation, and committee, to indicate sets of learning machines that work together to solve a machine learning problem [19,40,56,66,99,108,123], but in this chapter we maintain the term ensemble in its widest meaning, in order to include the whole range of combination methods. Nowadays, ensemble methods represent one of the main current research lines in machine learning [48,116], and the interest of the research community on ensemble methods is witnessed by conferences and workshops specifically devoted to ensembles, first of all the multiple classifier systems (MCS) conference organized by Roli, Kittler, Windeatt, and other researchers of this area [14,62,85,149,173]. Several theories have been

Non-Boltzmann Ensembles and Monte Carlo Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murthy, K. P. N.

2016-01-01

Boltzmann sampling based on Metropolis algorithm has been extensively used for simulating a canonical ensemble and for calculating macroscopic properties of a closed system at desired temperatures. An estimate of a mechanical property, like energy, of an equilibrium system, is made by averaging over a large number microstates generated by Boltzmann Monte Carlo methods. This is possible because we can assign a numerical value for energy to each microstate. However, a thermal property like entropy, is not easily accessible to these methods. The reason is simple. We can not assign a numerical value for entropy, to a microstate. Entropy is not a property associated with any single microstate. It is a collective property of all the microstates. Toward calculating entropy and other thermal properties, a non-Boltzmann Monte Carlo technique called Umbrella sampling was proposed some forty years ago. Umbrella sampling has since undergone several metamorphoses and we have now, multi-canonical Monte Carlo, entropic sampling, flat histogram methods, Wang-Landau algorithm etc . This class of methods generates non-Boltzmann ensembles which are un-physical. However, physical quantities can be calculated as follows. First un-weight a microstates of the entropic ensemble; then re-weight it to the desired physical ensemble. Carry out weighted average over the entropic ensemble to estimate physical quantities. In this talk I shall tell you of the most recent non- Boltzmann Monte Carlo method and show how to calculate free energy for a few systems. We first consider estimation of free energy as a function of energy at different temperatures to characterize phase transition in an hairpin DNA in the presence of an unzipping force. Next we consider free energy as a function of order parameter and to this end we estimate density of states g ( E , M ), as a function of both energy E , and order parameter M . This is carried out in two stages. We estimate g ( E ) in the first stage

Schwarz-Christoffel Conformal Mapping based Grid Generation for Global Oceanic Circulation Models

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Shiming

2015-04-01

We propose new grid generation algorithms for global ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Contrary to conventional, analytical forms based dipolar or tripolar grids, the new algorithm are based on Schwarz-Christoffel (SC) conformal mapping with prescribed boundary information. While dealing with the conventional grid design problem of pole relocation, it also addresses more advanced issues of computational efficiency and the new requirements on OGCM grids arisen from the recent trend of high-resolution and multi-scale modeling. The proposed grid generation algorithm could potentially achieve the alignment of grid lines to coastlines, enhanced spatial resolution in coastal regions, and easier computational load balance. Since the generated grids are still orthogonal curvilinear, they can be readily 10 utilized in existing Bryan-Cox-Semtner type ocean models. The proposed methodology can also be applied to the grid generation task for regional ocean modeling when complex land-ocean distribution is present.

On the structure and phase transitions of power-law Poissonian ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Eliazar, Iddo; Oshanin, Gleb

2012-10-01

Power-law Poissonian ensembles are Poisson processes that are defined on the positive half-line, and that are governed by power-law intensities. Power-law Poissonian ensembles are stochastic objects of fundamental significance; they uniquely display an array of fractal features and they uniquely generate a span of important applications. In this paper we apply three different methods—oligarchic analysis, Lorenzian analysis and heterogeneity analysis—to explore power-law Poissonian ensembles. The amalgamation of these analyses, combined with the topology of power-law Poissonian ensembles, establishes a detailed and multi-faceted picture of the statistical structure and the statistical phase transitions of these elemental ensembles.

Conformational dynamics of amyloid proteins at the aqueous interface

Science.gov (United States)

Armbruster, Matthew; Horst, Nathan; Aoki, Brendy; Malik, Saad; Soto, Patricia

2013-03-01

Amyloid proteins is a class of proteins that exhibit distinct monomeric and oligomeric conformational states hallmark of deleterious neurological diseases for which there are not yet cures. Our goal is to examine the extent of which the aqueous/membrane interface modulates the folding energy landscape of amyloid proteins. To this end, we probe the dynamic conformational ensemble of amyloids (monomer prion protein and Alzheimer's Ab protofilaments) interacting with model bilayers. We will present the results of our coarse grain molecular modeling study in terms of the existence of preferential binding spots of the amyloid to the bilayer and the response of the bilayer to the interaction with the amyloid. NSF Nebraska EPSCoR First Award

Combining Rosetta with molecular dynamics (MD): A benchmark of the MD-based ensemble protein design.

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwiczak, Jan; Jarmula, Adam; Dunin-Horkawicz, Stanislaw

2018-07-01

Computational protein design is a set of procedures for computing amino acid sequences that will fold into a specified structure. Rosetta Design, a commonly used software for protein design, allows for the effective identification of sequences compatible with a given backbone structure, while molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can thoroughly sample near-native conformations. We benchmarked a procedure in which Rosetta design is started on MD-derived structural ensembles and showed that such a combined approach generates 20-30% more diverse sequences than currently available methods with only a slight increase in computation time. Importantly, the increase in diversity is achieved without a loss in the quality of the designed sequences assessed by their resemblance to natural sequences. We demonstrate that the MD-based procedure is also applicable to de novo design tasks started from backbone structures without any sequence information. In addition, we implemented a protocol that can be used to assess the stability of designed models and to select the best candidates for experimental validation. In sum our results demonstrate that the MD ensemble-based flexible backbone design can be a viable method for protein design, especially for tasks that require a large pool of diverse sequences. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulated Tempering Distributed Replica Sampling, Virtual Replica Exchange, and Other Generalized-Ensemble Methods for Conformational Sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Rauscher, Sarah; Neale, Chris; Pomès, Régis

2009-10-13

Generalized-ensemble algorithms in temperature space have become popular tools to enhance conformational sampling in biomolecular simulations. A random walk in temperature leads to a corresponding random walk in potential energy, which can be used to cross over energetic barriers and overcome the problem of quasi-nonergodicity. In this paper, we introduce two novel methods: simulated tempering distributed replica sampling (STDR) and virtual replica exchange (VREX). These methods are designed to address the practical issues inherent in the replica exchange (RE), simulated tempering (ST), and serial replica exchange (SREM) algorithms. RE requires a large, dedicated, and homogeneous cluster of CPUs to function efficiently when applied to complex systems. ST and SREM both have the drawback of requiring extensive initial simulations, possibly adaptive, for the calculation of weight factors or potential energy distribution functions. STDR and VREX alleviate the need for lengthy initial simulations, and for synchronization and extensive communication between replicas. Both methods are therefore suitable for distributed or heterogeneous computing platforms. We perform an objective comparison of all five algorithms in terms of both implementation issues and sampling efficiency. We use disordered peptides in explicit water as test systems, for a total simulation time of over 42 μs. Efficiency is defined in terms of both structural convergence and temperature diffusion, and we show that these definitions of efficiency are in fact correlated. Importantly, we find that ST-based methods exhibit faster temperature diffusion and correspondingly faster convergence of structural properties compared to RE-based methods. Within the RE-based methods, VREX is superior to both SREM and RE. On the basis of our observations, we conclude that ST is ideal for simple systems, while STDR is well-suited for complex systems.

In-depth analysis of subclass-specific conformational preferences of IgG antibodies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinsheng Tian

2015-01-01

Full Text Available IgG subclass-specific differences in biological function and in vitro stability are often referred to variations in the conformational flexibility, while this flexibility has rarely been characterized. Here, small-angle X-ray scattering data from IgG1, IgG2 and IgG4 antibodies, which were designed with identical variable regions, were thoroughly analysed by the ensemble optimization method. The extended analysis of the optimized ensembles through shape clustering reveals distinct subclass-specific conformational preferences, which provide new insights for understanding the variations in physical/chemical stability and biological function of therapeutic antibodies. Importantly, the way that specific differences in the linker region correlate with the solution structure of intact antibodies is revealed, thereby visualizing future potential for the rational design of antibodies with designated physicochemical properties and tailored effector functions. In addition, this advanced computational approach is applicable to other flexible multi-domain systems and extends the potential for investigating flexibility in solutions of macromolecules by small-angle X-ray scattering.

Online probabilistic learning with an ensemble of forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Thorey, Jean; Mallet, Vivien; Chaussin, Christophe

2016-04-01

Our objective is to produce a calibrated weighted ensemble to forecast a univariate time series. In addition to a meteorological ensemble of forecasts, we rely on observations or analyses of the target variable. The celebrated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the probabilistic forecasts. However applying the CRPS on weighted empirical distribution functions (deriving from the weighted ensemble) may introduce a bias because of which minimizing the CRPS does not produce the optimal weights. Thus we propose an unbiased version of the CRPS which relies on clusters of members and is strictly proper. We adapt online learning methods for the minimization of the CRPS. These methods generate the weights associated to the members in the forecasted empirical distribution function. The weights are updated before each forecast step using only past observations and forecasts. Our learning algorithms provide the theoretical guarantee that, in the long run, the CRPS of the weighted forecasts is at least as good as the CRPS of any weighted ensemble with weights constant in time. In particular, the performance of our forecast is better than that of any subset ensemble with uniform weights. A noteworthy advantage of our algorithm is that it does not require any assumption on the distributions of the observations and forecasts, both for the application and for the theoretical guarantee to hold. As application example on meteorological forecasts for photovoltaic production integration, we show that our algorithm generates a calibrated probabilistic forecast, with significant performance improvements on probabilistic diagnostic tools (the CRPS, the reliability diagram and the rank histogram).

Ensemble atmospheric dispersion modeling for emergency response consequence assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Addis, R.P.; Buckley, R.L.

2003-01-01

Full text: Prognostic atmospheric dispersion models are used to generate consequence assessments, which assist decision-makers in the event of a release from a nuclear facility. Differences in the forecast wind fields generated by various meteorological agencies, differences in the transport and diffusion models themselves, as well as differences in the way these models treat the release source term, all may result in differences in the simulated plumes. This talk will address the U.S. participation in the European ENSEMBLE project, and present a perspective an how ensemble techniques may be used to enable atmospheric modelers to provide decision-makers with a more realistic understanding of how both the atmosphere and the models behave. Meteorological forecasts generated by numerical models from national and multinational meteorological agencies provide individual realizations of three-dimensional, time dependent atmospheric wind fields. These wind fields may be used to drive atmospheric dispersion (transport and diffusion) models, or they may be used to initiate other, finer resolution meteorological models, which in turn drive dispersion models. Many modeling agencies now utilize ensemble-modeling techniques to determine how sensitive the prognostic fields are to minor perturbations in the model parameters. However, the European Union programs RTMOD and ENSEMBLE are the first projects to utilize a WEB based ensemble approach to interpret the output from atmospheric dispersion models. The ensembles produced are different from those generated by meteorological forecasting centers in that they are ensembles of dispersion model outputs from many different atmospheric transport and diffusion models utilizing prognostic atmospheric fields from several different forecast centers. As such, they enable a decision-maker to consider the uncertainty in the plume transport and growth as a result of the differences in the forecast wind fields as well as the differences in the

On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

KAUST Repository

Luo, Xiaodong; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Moroz, Irene M.

2010-01-01

However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

How and How Much Molecular Conformation Affects Electronic Circular Dichroism: The Case of 1,1-Diarylcarbinols.

Science.gov (United States)

Padula, Daniele; Pescitelli, Gennaro

2018-01-09

Chiroptical spectra such as electronic circular dichroism (ECD) are said to be much more sensitive to conformation than their non-chiroptical counterparts, however, it is difficult to demonstrate such a common notion in a clear-cut way. We run DFT and TDDFT calculations on two closely related 1,1-diarylmethanols which show mirror-image ECD spectra for the same absolute configuration. We demonstrate that the main reason for the different chiroptical response of the two compounds lies in different conformational ensembles, caused by a single hydrogen-to-methyl substitution. We conclude that two compounds, having the same configuration but different conformation, may exhibit mirror-image ECD signals, stressing the importance and impact of conformational factors on ECD spectra.

Enhancing pairwise state-transition weights: A new weighting scheme in simulated tempering that can minimize transition time between a pair of conformational states

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qiao, Qin, E-mail: qqiao@ust.hk; Zhang, Hou-Dao [Department of Chemistry, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon (Hong Kong); Huang, Xuhui, E-mail: xuhuihuang@ust.hk [Department of Chemistry, Division of Biomedical Engineering, Center of Systems Biology and Human Health, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon (Hong Kong); The HKUST Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen (China)

2016-04-21

Simulated tempering (ST) is a widely used enhancing sampling method for Molecular Dynamics simulations. As one expanded ensemble method, ST is a combination of canonical ensembles at different temperatures and the acceptance probability of cross-temperature transitions is determined by both the temperature difference and the weights of each temperature. One popular way to obtain the weights is to adopt the free energy of each canonical ensemble, which achieves uniform sampling among temperature space. However, this uniform distribution in temperature space may not be optimal since high temperatures do not always speed up the conformational transitions of interest, as anti-Arrhenius kinetics are prevalent in protein and RNA folding. Here, we propose a new method: Enhancing Pairwise State-transition Weights (EPSW), to obtain the optimal weights by minimizing the round-trip time for transitions among different metastable states at the temperature of interest in ST. The novelty of the EPSW algorithm lies in explicitly considering the kinetics of conformation transitions when optimizing the weights of different temperatures. We further demonstrate the power of EPSW in three different systems: a simple two-temperature model, a two-dimensional model for protein folding with anti-Arrhenius kinetics, and the alanine dipeptide. The results from these three systems showed that the new algorithm can substantially accelerate the transitions between conformational states of interest in the ST expanded ensemble and further facilitate the convergence of thermodynamics compared to the widely used free energy weights. We anticipate that this algorithm is particularly useful for studying functional conformational changes of biological systems where the initial and final states are often known from structural biology experiments.

Enhancing pairwise state-transition weights: A new weighting scheme in simulated tempering that can minimize transition time between a pair of conformational states

Science.gov (United States)

Qiao, Qin; Zhang, Hou-Dao; Huang, Xuhui

2016-04-01

Simulated tempering (ST) is a widely used enhancing sampling method for Molecular Dynamics simulations. As one expanded ensemble method, ST is a combination of canonical ensembles at different temperatures and the acceptance probability of cross-temperature transitions is determined by both the temperature difference and the weights of each temperature. One popular way to obtain the weights is to adopt the free energy of each canonical ensemble, which achieves uniform sampling among temperature space. However, this uniform distribution in temperature space may not be optimal since high temperatures do not always speed up the conformational transitions of interest, as anti-Arrhenius kinetics are prevalent in protein and RNA folding. Here, we propose a new method: Enhancing Pairwise State-transition Weights (EPSW), to obtain the optimal weights by minimizing the round-trip time for transitions among different metastable states at the temperature of interest in ST. The novelty of the EPSW algorithm lies in explicitly considering the kinetics of conformation transitions when optimizing the weights of different temperatures. We further demonstrate the power of EPSW in three different systems: a simple two-temperature model, a two-dimensional model for protein folding with anti-Arrhenius kinetics, and the alanine dipeptide. The results from these three systems showed that the new algorithm can substantially accelerate the transitions between conformational states of interest in the ST expanded ensemble and further facilitate the convergence of thermodynamics compared to the widely used free energy weights. We anticipate that this algorithm is particularly useful for studying functional conformational changes of biological systems where the initial and final states are often known from structural biology experiments.

Enhancing pairwise state-transition weights: A new weighting scheme in simulated tempering that can minimize transition time between a pair of conformational states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiao, Qin; Zhang, Hou-Dao; Huang, Xuhui

2016-01-01

Simulated tempering (ST) is a widely used enhancing sampling method for Molecular Dynamics simulations. As one expanded ensemble method, ST is a combination of canonical ensembles at different temperatures and the acceptance probability of cross-temperature transitions is determined by both the temperature difference and the weights of each temperature. One popular way to obtain the weights is to adopt the free energy of each canonical ensemble, which achieves uniform sampling among temperature space. However, this uniform distribution in temperature space may not be optimal since high temperatures do not always speed up the conformational transitions of interest, as anti-Arrhenius kinetics are prevalent in protein and RNA folding. Here, we propose a new method: Enhancing Pairwise State-transition Weights (EPSW), to obtain the optimal weights by minimizing the round-trip time for transitions among different metastable states at the temperature of interest in ST. The novelty of the EPSW algorithm lies in explicitly considering the kinetics of conformation transitions when optimizing the weights of different temperatures. We further demonstrate the power of EPSW in three different systems: a simple two-temperature model, a two-dimensional model for protein folding with anti-Arrhenius kinetics, and the alanine dipeptide. The results from these three systems showed that the new algorithm can substantially accelerate the transitions between conformational states of interest in the ST expanded ensemble and further facilitate the convergence of thermodynamics compared to the widely used free energy weights. We anticipate that this algorithm is particularly useful for studying functional conformational changes of biological systems where the initial and final states are often known from structural biology experiments.

An Efficient Ensemble Learning Method for Gene Microarray Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alireza Osareh

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The gene microarray analysis and classification have demonstrated an effective way for the effective diagnosis of diseases and cancers. However, it has been also revealed that the basic classification techniques have intrinsic drawbacks in achieving accurate gene classification and cancer diagnosis. On the other hand, classifier ensembles have received increasing attention in various applications. Here, we address the gene classification issue using RotBoost ensemble methodology. This method is a combination of Rotation Forest and AdaBoost techniques which in turn preserve both desirable features of an ensemble architecture, that is, accuracy and diversity. To select a concise subset of informative genes, 5 different feature selection algorithms are considered. To assess the efficiency of the RotBoost, other nonensemble/ensemble techniques including Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, Rotation Forest, AdaBoost, and Bagging are also deployed. Experimental results have revealed that the combination of the fast correlation-based feature selection method with ICA-based RotBoost ensemble is highly effective for gene classification. In fact, the proposed method can create ensemble classifiers which outperform not only the classifiers produced by the conventional machine learning but also the classifiers generated by two widely used conventional ensemble learning methods, that is, Bagging and AdaBoost.

Developing an Ensemble Prediction System based on COSMO-DE

Science.gov (United States)

Theis, S.; Gebhardt, C.; Buchhold, M.; Ben Bouallègue, Z.; Ohl, R.; Paulat, M.; Peralta, C.

2010-09-01

The numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE is a configuration of the COSMO model with a horizontal grid size of 2.8 km. It has been running operationally at DWD since 2007, it covers the area of Germany and produces forecasts with a lead time of 0-21 hours. The model COSMO-DE is convection-permitting, which means that it does without a parametrisation of deep convection and simulates deep convection explicitly. One aim is an improved forecast of convective heavy rain events. Convection-permitting models are in operational use at several weather services, but currently not in ensemble mode. It is expected that an ensemble system could reveal the advantages of a convection-permitting model even better. The probabilistic approach is necessary, because the explicit simulation of convective processes for more than a few hours cannot be viewed as a deterministic forecast anymore. This is due to the chaotic behaviour and short life cycle of the processes which are simulated explicitly now. In the framework of the project COSMO-DE-EPS, DWD is developing and implementing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) for the model COSMO-DE. The project COSMO-DE-EPS comprises the generation of ensemble members, as well as the verification and visualization of the ensemble forecasts and also statistical postprocessing. A pre-operational mode of the EPS with 20 ensemble members is foreseen to start in 2010. Operational use is envisaged to start in 2012, after an upgrade to 40 members and inclusion of statistical postprocessing. The presentation introduces the project COSMO-DE-EPS and describes the design of the ensemble as it is planned for the pre-operational mode. In particular, the currently implemented method for the generation of ensemble members will be explained and discussed. The method includes variations of initial conditions, lateral boundary conditions, and model physics. At present, pragmatic methods are applied which resemble the basic ideas of a multi-model approach

Population distribution of flexible molecules from maximum entropy analysis using different priors as background information: application to the Φ, Ψ-conformational space of the α-(1-->2)-linked mannose disaccharide present in N- and O-linked glycoproteins.

Science.gov (United States)

Säwén, Elin; Massad, Tariq; Landersjö, Clas; Damberg, Peter; Widmalm, Göran

2010-08-21

The conformational space available to the flexible molecule α-D-Manp-(1-->2)-α-D-Manp-OMe, a model for the α-(1-->2)-linked mannose disaccharide in N- or O-linked glycoproteins, is determined using experimental data and molecular simulation combined with a maximum entropy approach that leads to a converged population distribution utilizing different input information. A database survey of the Protein Data Bank where structures having the constituent disaccharide were retrieved resulted in an ensemble with >200 structures. Subsequent filtering removed erroneous structures and gave the database (DB) ensemble having three classes of mannose-containing compounds, viz., N- and O-linked structures, and ligands to proteins. A molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of the disaccharide revealed a two-state equilibrium with a major and a minor conformational state, i.e., the MD ensemble. These two different conformation ensembles of the disaccharide were compared to measured experimental spectroscopic data for the molecule in water solution. However, neither of the two populations were compatible with experimental data from optical rotation, NMR (1)H,(1)H cross-relaxation rates as well as homo- and heteronuclear (3)J couplings. The conformational distributions were subsequently used as background information to generate priors that were used in a maximum entropy analysis. The resulting posteriors, i.e., the population distributions after the application of the maximum entropy analysis, still showed notable deviations that were not anticipated based on the prior information. Therefore, reparameterization of homo- and heteronuclear Karplus relationships for the glycosidic torsion angles Φ and Ψ were carried out in which the importance of electronegative substituents on the coupling pathway was deemed essential resulting in four derived equations, two (3)J(COCC) and two (3)J(COCH) being different for the Φ and Ψ torsions, respectively. These Karplus relationships are denoted

Hypotrochoids in conformal restriction systems and Virasoro descendants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyon, Benjamin

2013-01-01

A conformal restriction system is a commutative, associative, unital algebra equipped with a representation of the groupoid of univalent conformal maps on connected open sets of the Riemann sphere, along with a family of linear functionals on subalgebras, satisfying a set of properties including conformal invariance and a type of restriction. This embodies some expected properties of expectation values in conformal loop ensembles CLE κ (at least for 8/3 iθ and w. We find that it has an expansion in positive powers of u and u-bar , and that the coefficients of pure u ( u-bar ) powers are holomorphic in w ( w-bar ). We identify these coefficients (the ‘hypotrochoid fields’) with certain Virasoro descendants of the identity field in conformal field theory, thereby showing that they form part of a vertex operator algebraic structure. This largely generalizes works by the author (in CLE), and the author with his collaborators Riva and Cardy (in SLE 8/3 and other restriction measures), where the case of the ellipse, at the order u 2 , led to the stress–energy tensor of CFT. The derivation uses in an essential way the Virasoro vertex operator algebra structure of conformal derivatives established recently by the author. The results suggest in particular the exact evaluation of CLE expectations of products of hypotrochoid fields as well as nontrivial relations amongst them through the vertex operator algebra, and further shed light onto the relationship between CLE and CFT. (paper)

On Associative Conformal Algebras of Linear Growth

OpenAIRE

Retakh, Alexander

2000-01-01

Lie conformal algebras appear in the theory of vertex algebras. Their relation is similar to that of Lie algebras and their universal enveloping algebras. Associative conformal algebras play a role in conformal representation theory. We introduce the notions of conformal identity and unital associative conformal algebras and classify finitely generated simple unital associative conformal algebras of linear growth. These are precisely the complete algebras of conformal endomorphisms of finite ...

Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Kann

2011-12-01

Full Text Available During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011, provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min and spatial (1 km resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011. The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR which yields a statistical mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion for Gaussian distributed continuous

Src kinase conformational activation: thermodynamics, pathways, and mechanisms.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sichun Yang

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Tyrosine kinases of the Src-family are large allosteric enzymes that play a key role in cellular signaling. Conversion of the kinase from an inactive to an active state is accompanied by substantial structural changes. Here, we construct a coarse-grained model of the catalytic domain incorporating experimental structures for the two stable states, and simulate the dynamics of conformational transitions in kinase activation. We explore the transition energy landscapes by constructing a structural network among clusters of conformations from the simulations. From the structural network, two major ensembles of pathways for the activation are identified. In the first transition pathway, we find a coordinated switching mechanism of interactions among the alphaC helix, the activation-loop, and the beta strands in the N-lobe of the catalytic domain. In a second pathway, the conformational change is coupled to a partial unfolding of the N-lobe region of the catalytic domain. We also characterize the switching mechanism for the alphaC helix and the activation-loop in detail. Finally, we test the performance of a Markov model and its ability to account for the structural kinetics in the context of Src conformational changes. Taken together, these results provide a broad framework for understanding the main features of the conformational transition taking place upon Src activation.

Comparing pharmacophore models derived from crystallography and NMR ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Ghanakota, Phani; Carlson, Heather A.

2017-11-01

NMR and X-ray crystallography are the two most widely used methods for determining protein structures. Our previous study examining NMR versus X-Ray sources of protein conformations showed improved performance with NMR structures when used in our Multiple Protein Structures (MPS) method for receptor-based pharmacophores (Damm, Carlson, J Am Chem Soc 129:8225-8235, 2007). However, that work was based on a single test case, HIV-1 protease, because of the rich data available for that system. New data for more systems are available now, which calls for further examination of the effect of different sources of protein conformations. The MPS technique was applied to Growth factor receptor bound protein 2 (Grb2), Src SH2 homology domain (Src-SH2), FK506-binding protein 1A (FKBP12), and Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ (PPAR-γ). Pharmacophore models from both crystal and NMR ensembles were able to discriminate between high-affinity, low-affinity, and decoy molecules. As we found in our original study, NMR models showed optimal performance when all elements were used. The crystal models had more pharmacophore elements compared to their NMR counterparts. The crystal-based models exhibited optimum performance only when pharmacophore elements were dropped. This supports our assertion that the higher flexibility in NMR ensembles helps focus the models on the most essential interactions with the protein. Our studies suggest that the "extra" pharmacophore elements seen at the periphery in X-ray models arise as a result of decreased protein flexibility and make very little contribution to model performance.

Mass generation, the cosmological constant problem, conformal symmetry, and the Higgs boson

Science.gov (United States)

Mannheim, Philip D.

2017-05-01

In 2013 the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to Francois Englert and Peter Higgs for their work in 1964 along with the late Robert Brout on the mass generation mechanism (the Higgs mechanism) in local gauge theories. This mechanism requires the existence of a massive scalar particle, the Higgs boson, and in 2012 the Higgs boson was finally discovered at the Large Hadron Collider after being sought for almost half a century. In this article we review the work that led to the discovery of the Higgs boson and discuss its implications. We approach the topic from the perspective of a dynamically generated Higgs boson that is a fermion-antifermion bound state rather than an elementary field that appears in an input Lagrangian. In particular, we emphasize the connection with the Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer theory of superconductivity. We identify the double-well Higgs potential not as a fundamental potential but as a mean-field effective Lagrangian with a dynamical Higgs boson being generated through a residual interaction that accompanies the mean-field Lagrangian. We discuss what we believe to be the key challenge raised by the discovery of the Higgs boson, namely determining whether it is elementary or composite, and through study of a conformal invariant field theory model as realized with critical scaling and anomalous dimensions, suggest that the width of the Higgs boson might serve as a suitable diagnostic for discriminating between an elementary Higgs boson and a composite one. We discuss the implications of Higgs boson mass generation for the cosmological constant problem, as the cosmological constant receives contributions from the very mechanism that generates the Higgs boson mass in the first place. We show that the contribution to the cosmological constant due to a composite Higgs boson is more tractable and under control than the contribution due to an elementary Higgs boson, and is potentially completely under control if there is an underlying conformal

On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

KAUST Repository

Luo, Xiaodong

2010-09-19

The ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) [1, 2, 3, 4] is a popular method for data assimilation in high dimensional systems (e.g., geophysics models). Essentially the EnSRF is a Monte Carlo implementation of the conventional Kalman filter (KF) [5, 6]. It is mainly different from the KF at the prediction steps, where it is some ensembles, rather then the means and covariance matrices, of the system state that are propagated forward. In doing this, the EnSRF is computationally more efficient than the KF, since propagating a covariance matrix forward in high dimensional systems is prohibitively expensive. In addition, the EnSRF is also very convenient in implementation. By propagating the ensembles of the system state, the EnSRF can be directly applied to nonlinear systems without any change in comparison to the assimilation procedures in linear systems. However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

Polyphony: superposition independent methods for ensemble-based drug discovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Pitt, William R; Montalvão, Rinaldo W; Blundell, Tom L

2014-09-30

Structure-based drug design is an iterative process, following cycles of structural biology, computer-aided design, synthetic chemistry and bioassay. In favorable circumstances, this process can lead to the structures of hundreds of protein-ligand crystal structures. In addition, molecular dynamics simulations are increasingly being used to further explore the conformational landscape of these complexes. Currently, methods capable of the analysis of ensembles of crystal structures and MD trajectories are limited and usually rely upon least squares superposition of coordinates. Novel methodologies are described for the analysis of multiple structures of a protein. Statistical approaches that rely upon residue equivalence, but not superposition, are developed. Tasks that can be performed include the identification of hinge regions, allosteric conformational changes and transient binding sites. The approaches are tested on crystal structures of CDK2 and other CMGC protein kinases and a simulation of p38α. Known interaction - conformational change relationships are highlighted but also new ones are revealed. A transient but druggable allosteric pocket in CDK2 is predicted to occur under the CMGC insert. Furthermore, an evolutionarily-conserved conformational link from the location of this pocket, via the αEF-αF loop, to phosphorylation sites on the activation loop is discovered. New methodologies are described and validated for the superimposition independent conformational analysis of large collections of structures or simulation snapshots of the same protein. The methodologies are encoded in a Python package called Polyphony, which is released as open source to accompany this paper [http://wrpitt.bitbucket.org/polyphony/].

How and How Much Molecular Conformation Affects Electronic Circular Dichroism: The Case of 1,1-Diarylcarbinols

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Daniele Padula

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Chiroptical spectra such as electronic circular dichroism (ECD are said to be much more sensitive to conformation than their non-chiroptical counterparts, however, it is difficult to demonstrate such a common notion in a clear-cut way. We run DFT and TDDFT calculations on two closely related 1,1-diarylmethanols which show mirror-image ECD spectra for the same absolute configuration. We demonstrate that the main reason for the different chiroptical response of the two compounds lies in different conformational ensembles, caused by a single hydrogen-to-methyl substitution. We conclude that two compounds, having the same configuration but different conformation, may exhibit mirror-image ECD signals, stressing the importance and impact of conformational factors on ECD spectra.

Electrostatic Swelling and Conformational Variation Observed in High-Generation Polyelectrolyte Dendrimers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Butler, Paul D.; Chen, Wei-Ren; Herwig, Kenneth W.; Hong, Kunlun; Liu, Yun; Porcar, L.; Shew, Chwen-Yang; Smith, Gregory Scott; Chen, Hsin-Lung; Chen, Chun-Yu; Li, Xin; Liu, Emily

2010-01-01

A coordinated study combining small angle neutron scattering (SANS) and small angle x-ray scattering (SAXS) measurements was conducted to investigate the structural characteristics of aqueous (D2O) generation 7 and 8 (G7 and G8) PAMAM dendrimer solutions as a function of molecular protonation at room temperature. The change in intra-molecular conformation was clearly exhibited in the data analysis by separating the variation in the inter-molecular correlation. Our results unambiguously demonstrate an increased molecular size and evolved intra-molecular density profile upon increasing the molecular protonation. This is contrary to the existing understanding that in higher generation polyelectrolyte dendrimers, steric crowding stiffens the local motion of dendrimer segments exploring additional available intra-dendrimer volume and therefore inhibits the electrostatic swelling. Our observation is relevant to elucidation of the general microscopic picture of polyelectrolyte dendrimer structure, as well as the development of dendrimer-based packages with based on the stimuli-responsive principle.

Ocean Predictability and Uncertainty Forecasts Using Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF)

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, M.; Hogan, P. J.; Rowley, C. D.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Penny, S. G.

2017-12-01

Ocean predictability and uncertainty are studied with an ensemble system that has been developed based on the US Navy's operational HYCOM using the Local Ensemble Transfer Kalman Filter (LETKF) technology. One of the advantages of this method is that the best possible initial analysis states for the HYCOM forecasts are provided by the LETKF which assimilates operational observations using ensemble method. The background covariance during this assimilation process is implicitly supplied with the ensemble avoiding the difficult task of developing tangent linear and adjoint models out of HYCOM with the complicated hybrid isopycnal vertical coordinate for 4D-VAR. The flow-dependent background covariance from the ensemble will be an indispensable part in the next generation hybrid 4D-Var/ensemble data assimilation system. The predictability and uncertainty for the ocean forecasts are studied initially for the Gulf of Mexico. The results are compared with another ensemble system using Ensemble Transfer (ET) method which has been used in the Navy's operational center. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed.

An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. AghaKouchak

2013-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.

A Hyper-Heuristic Ensemble Method for Static Job-Shop Scheduling.

Science.gov (United States)

Hart, Emma; Sim, Kevin

2016-01-01

We describe a new hyper-heuristic method NELLI-GP for solving job-shop scheduling problems (JSSP) that evolves an ensemble of heuristics. The ensemble adopts a divide-and-conquer approach in which each heuristic solves a unique subset of the instance set considered. NELLI-GP extends an existing ensemble method called NELLI by introducing a novel heuristic generator that evolves heuristics composed of linear sequences of dispatching rules: each rule is represented using a tree structure and is itself evolved. Following a training period, the ensemble is shown to outperform both existing dispatching rules and a standard genetic programming algorithm on a large set of new test instances. In addition, it obtains superior results on a set of 210 benchmark problems from the literature when compared to two state-of-the-art hyper-heuristic approaches. Further analysis of the relationship between heuristics in the evolved ensemble and the instances each solves provides new insights into features that might describe similar instances.

Internal Spin Control, Squeezing and Decoherence in Ensembles of Alkali Atomic Spins

Science.gov (United States)

Norris, Leigh Morgan

Large atomic ensembles interacting with light are one of the most promising platforms for quantum information processing. In the past decade, novel applications for these systems have emerged in quantum communication, quantum computing, and metrology. Essential to all of these applications is the controllability of the atomic ensemble, which is facilitated by a strong coupling between the atoms and light. Non-classical spin squeezed states are a crucial step in attaining greater ensemble control. The degree of entanglement present in these states, furthermore, serves as a benchmark for the strength of the atom-light interaction. Outside the broader context of quantum information processing with atomic ensembles, spin squeezed states have applications in metrology, where their quantum correlations can be harnessed to improve the precision of magnetometers and atomic clocks. This dissertation focuses upon the production of spin squeezed states in large ensembles of cold trapped alkali atoms interacting with optical fields. While most treatments of spin squeezing consider only the case in which the ensemble is composed of two level systems or qubits, we utilize the entire ground manifold of an alkali atom with hyperfine spin f greater than or equal to 1/2, a qudit. Spin squeezing requires non-classical correlations between the constituent atomic spins, which are generated through the atoms' collective coupling to the light. Either through measurement or multiple interactions with the atoms, the light mediates an entangling interaction that produces quantum correlations. Because the spin squeezing treated in this dissertation ultimately originates from the coupling between the light and atoms, conventional approaches of improving this squeezing have focused on increasing the optical density of the ensemble. The greater number of internal degrees of freedom and the controllability of the spin-f ground hyperfine manifold enable novel methods of enhancing squeezing. In

Scalable quantum information processing with atomic ensembles and flying photons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mei Feng; Yu Yafei; Feng Mang; Zhang Zhiming

2009-01-01

We present a scheme for scalable quantum information processing with atomic ensembles and flying photons. Using the Rydberg blockade, we encode the qubits in the collective atomic states, which could be manipulated fast and easily due to the enhanced interaction in comparison to the single-atom case. We demonstrate that our proposed gating could be applied to generation of two-dimensional cluster states for measurement-based quantum computation. Moreover, the atomic ensembles also function as quantum repeaters useful for long-distance quantum state transfer. We show the possibility of our scheme to work in bad cavity or in weak coupling regime, which could much relax the experimental requirement. The efficient coherent operations on the ensemble qubits enable our scheme to be switchable between quantum computation and quantum communication using atomic ensembles.

Pauci ex tanto numero: reduce redundancy in multi-model ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Solazzo, E.; Riccio, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Galmarini, S.

2013-08-01

We explicitly address the fundamental issue of member diversity in multi-model ensembles. To date, no attempts in this direction have been documented within the air quality (AQ) community despite the extensive use of ensembles in this field. Common biases and redundancy are the two issues directly deriving from lack of independence, undermining the significance of a multi-model ensemble, and are the subject of this study. Shared, dependant biases among models do not cancel out but will instead determine a biased ensemble. Redundancy derives from having too large a portion of common variance among the members of the ensemble, producing overconfidence in the predictions and underestimation of the uncertainty. The two issues of common biases and redundancy are analysed in detail using the AQMEII ensemble of AQ model results for four air pollutants in two European regions. We show that models share large portions of bias and variance, extending well beyond those induced by common inputs. We make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble with the advantage of being poorly correlated. Selecting the members for generating skilful, non-redundant ensembles from such subsets proved, however, non-trivial. We propose and discuss various methods of member selection and rate the ensemble performance they produce. In most cases, the full ensemble is outscored by the reduced ones. We conclude that, although independence of outputs may not always guarantee enhancement of scores (but this depends upon the skill being investigated), we discourage selecting the members of the ensemble simply on the basis of scores; that is, independence and skills need to be considered disjointly.

Pauci ex tanto numero: reducing redundancy in multi-model ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Solazzo, E.; Riccio, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Galmarini, S.

2013-02-01

We explicitly address the fundamental issue of member diversity in multi-model ensembles. To date no attempts in this direction are documented within the air quality (AQ) community, although the extensive use of ensembles in this field. Common biases and redundancy are the two issues directly deriving from lack of independence, undermining the significance of a multi-model ensemble, and are the subject of this study. Shared biases among models will determine a biased ensemble, making therefore essential the errors of the ensemble members to be independent so that bias can cancel out. Redundancy derives from having too large a portion of common variance among the members of the ensemble, producing overconfidence in the predictions and underestimation of the uncertainty. The two issues of common biases and redundancy are analysed in detail using the AQMEII ensemble of AQ model results for four air pollutants in two European regions. We show that models share large portions of bias and variance, extending well beyond those induced by common inputs. We make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble with the advantage of being poorly correlated. Selecting the members for generating skilful, non-redundant ensembles from such subsets proved, however, non-trivial. We propose and discuss various methods of member selection and rate the ensemble performance they produce. In most cases, the full ensemble is outscored by the reduced ones. We conclude that, although independence of outputs may not always guarantee enhancement of scores (but this depends upon the skill being investigated) we discourage selecting the members of the ensemble simply on the basis of scores, that is, independence and skills need to be considered disjointly.

Local Order in the Unfolded State: Conformational Biases and Nearest Neighbor Interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siobhan Toal

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The discovery of Intrinsically Disordered Proteins, which contain significant levels of disorder yet perform complex biologically functions, as well as unwanted aggregation, has motivated numerous experimental and theoretical studies aimed at describing residue-level conformational ensembles. Multiple lines of evidence gathered over the last 15 years strongly suggest that amino acids residues display unique and restricted conformational preferences in the unfolded state of peptides and proteins, contrary to one of the basic assumptions of the canonical random coil model. To fully understand residue level order/disorder, however, one has to gain a quantitative, experimentally based picture of conformational distributions and to determine the physical basis underlying residue-level conformational biases. Here, we review the experimental, computational and bioinformatic evidence for conformational preferences of amino acid residues in (mostly short peptides that can be utilized as suitable model systems for unfolded states of peptides and proteins. In this context particular attention is paid to the alleged high polyproline II preference of alanine. We discuss how these conformational propensities may be modulated by peptide solvent interactions and so called nearest-neighbor interactions. The relevance of conformational propensities for the protein folding problem and the understanding of IDPs is briefly discussed.

Ensembl 2004.

Science.gov (United States)

Birney, E; Andrews, D; Bevan, P; Caccamo, M; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clarke, L; Coates, G; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Cutts, T; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Fernandez-Suarez, X M; Gane, P; Gibbins, B; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hotz, H; Iyer, V; Kahari, A; Jekosch, K; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Keenan, S; Lehvaslaiho, H; McVicker, G; Melsopp, C; Meidl, P; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Proctor, G; Rae, M; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smedley, D; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Storey, R; Ureta-Vidal, A; Woodwark, C; Clamp, M; Hubbard, T

2004-01-01

The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organize biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive and integrated source of annotation of large genome sequences, available via interactive website, web services or flat files. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. The facilities of the system range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualization and installations exist around the world both in companies and at academic sites. With a total of nine genome sequences available from Ensembl and more genomes to follow, recent developments have focused mainly on closer integration between genomes and external data.

Ensemble models of neutrophil trafficking in severe sepsis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sang Ok Song

Full Text Available A hallmark of severe sepsis is systemic inflammation which activates leukocytes and can result in their misdirection. This leads to both impaired migration to the locus of infection and increased infiltration into healthy tissues. In order to better understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms involved, we developed a coarse-grained phenomenological model of the acute inflammatory response in CLP (cecal ligation and puncture-induced sepsis in rats. This model incorporates distinct neutrophil kinetic responses to the inflammatory stimulus and the dynamic interactions between components of a compartmentalized inflammatory response. Ensembles of model parameter sets consistent with experimental observations were statistically generated using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Prediction uncertainty in the model states was quantified over the resulting ensemble parameter sets. Forward simulation of the parameter ensembles successfully captured experimental features and predicted that systemically activated circulating neutrophils display impaired migration to the tissue and neutrophil sequestration in the lung, consequently contributing to tissue damage and mortality. Principal component and multiple regression analyses of the parameter ensembles estimated from survivor and non-survivor cohorts provide insight into pathologic mechanisms dictating outcome in sepsis. Furthermore, the model was extended to incorporate hypothetical mechanisms by which immune modulation using extracorporeal blood purification results in improved outcome in septic rats. Simulations identified a sub-population (about 18% of the treated population that benefited from blood purification. Survivors displayed enhanced neutrophil migration to tissue and reduced sequestration of lung neutrophils, contributing to improved outcome. The model ensemble presented herein provides a platform for generating and testing hypotheses in silico, as well as motivating further experimental

Decimated Input Ensembles for Improved Generalization

Science.gov (United States)

Tumer, Kagan; Oza, Nikunj C.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

Recently, many researchers have demonstrated that using classifier ensembles (e.g., averaging the outputs of multiple classifiers before reaching a classification decision) leads to improved performance for many difficult generalization problems. However, in many domains there are serious impediments to such "turnkey" classification accuracy improvements. Most notable among these is the deleterious effect of highly correlated classifiers on the ensemble performance. One particular solution to this problem is generating "new" training sets by sampling the original one. However, with finite number of patterns, this causes a reduction in the training patterns each classifier sees, often resulting in considerably worsened generalization performance (particularly for high dimensional data domains) for each individual classifier. Generally, this drop in the accuracy of the individual classifier performance more than offsets any potential gains due to combining, unless diversity among classifiers is actively promoted. In this work, we introduce a method that: (1) reduces the correlation among the classifiers; (2) reduces the dimensionality of the data, thus lessening the impact of the 'curse of dimensionality'; and (3) improves the classification performance of the ensemble.

Ensemble seasonal forecast of extreme water inflow into a large reservoir

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. N. Gelfan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available An approach to seasonal ensemble forecast of unregulated water inflow into a large reservoir was developed. The approach is founded on a physically-based semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG driven by Monte-Carlo generated ensembles of weather scenarios for a specified lead-time of the forecast (3 months ahead in this study. Case study was carried out for the Cheboksary reservoir (catchment area is 374 000 km2 located on the middle Volga River. Initial watershed conditions on the forecast date (1 March for spring freshet and 1 June for summer low-water period were simulated by the hydrological model forced by daily meteorological observations several months prior to the forecast date. A spatially distributed stochastic weather generator was used to produce time-series of daily weather scenarios for the forecast lead-time. Ensemble of daily water inflow into the reservoir was obtained by driving the ECOMAG model with the generated weather time-series. The proposed ensemble forecast technique was verified on the basis of the hindcast simulations for 29 spring and summer seasons beginning from 1982 (the year of the reservoir filling to capacity to 2010. The verification criteria were used in order to evaluate an ability of the proposed technique to forecast freshet/low-water events of the pre-assigned severity categories.

Single-particle model of a strongly driven, dense, nanoscale quantum ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

DiLoreto, C. S.; Rangan, C.

2018-01-01

We study the effects of interatomic interactions on the quantum dynamics of a dense, nanoscale, atomic ensemble driven by a strong electromagnetic field. We use a self-consistent, mean-field technique based on the pseudospectral time-domain method and a full, three-directional basis to solve the coupled Maxwell-Liouville equations. We find that interatomic interactions generate a decoherence in the state of an ensemble on a much faster time scale than the excited-state lifetime of individual atoms. We present a single-particle model of the driven, dense ensemble by incorporating interactions into a dephasing rate. This single-particle model reproduces the essential physics of the full simulation and is an efficient way of rapidly estimating the collective dynamics of a dense ensemble.

Towards conformal loop quantum gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Charles H-T

2006-01-01

A discussion is given of recent developments in canonical gravity that assimilates the conformal analysis of gravitational degrees of freedom. The work is motivated by the problem of time in quantum gravity and is carried out at the metric and the triad levels. At the metric level, it is shown that by extending the Arnowitt-Deser-Misner (ADM) phase space of general relativity (GR), a conformal form of geometrodynamics can be constructed. In addition to the Hamiltonian and Diffeomorphism constraints, an extra first class constraint is introduced to generate conformal transformations. This phase space consists of York's mean extrinsic curvature time, conformal three-metric and their momenta. At the triad level, the phase space of GR is further enlarged by incorporating spin-gauge as well as conformal symmetries. This leads to a canonical formulation of GR using a new set of real spin connection variables. The resulting gravitational constraints are first class, consisting of the Hamiltonian constraint and the canonical generators for spin-gauge and conformorphism transformations. The formulation has a remarkable feature of being parameter-free. Indeed, it is shown that a conformal parameter of the Barbero-Immirzi type can be absorbed by the conformal symmetry of the extended phase space. This gives rise to an alternative approach to loop quantum gravity that addresses both the conceptual problem of time and the technical problem of functional calculus in quantum gravity

The interaction with gold suppresses fiber-like conformations of the amyloid β (16-22) peptide

Science.gov (United States)

Bellucci, Luca; Ardèvol, Albert; Parrinello, Michele; Lutz, Helmut; Lu, Hao; Weidner, Tobias; Corni, Stefano

2016-04-01

Inorganic surfaces and nanoparticles can accelerate or inhibit the fibrillation process of proteins and peptides, including the biomedically relevant amyloid β peptide. However, the microscopic mechanisms that determine such an effect are still poorly understood. By means of large-scale, state-of-the-art enhanced sampling molecular dynamics simulations, here we identify an interaction mechanism between the segments 16-22 of the amyloid β peptide, known to be fibrillogenic by itself, and the Au(111) surface in water that leads to the suppression of fiber-like conformations from the peptide conformational ensemble. Moreover, thanks to advanced simulation analysis techniques, we characterize the conformational selection vs. induced fit nature of the gold effect. Our results disclose an inhibition mechanism that is rooted in the details of the microscopic peptide-surface interaction rather than in general phenomena such as peptide sequestration from the solution.Inorganic surfaces and nanoparticles can accelerate or inhibit the fibrillation process of proteins and peptides, including the biomedically relevant amyloid β peptide. However, the microscopic mechanisms that determine such an effect are still poorly understood. By means of large-scale, state-of-the-art enhanced sampling molecular dynamics simulations, here we identify an interaction mechanism between the segments 16-22 of the amyloid β peptide, known to be fibrillogenic by itself, and the Au(111) surface in water that leads to the suppression of fiber-like conformations from the peptide conformational ensemble. Moreover, thanks to advanced simulation analysis techniques, we characterize the conformational selection vs. induced fit nature of the gold effect. Our results disclose an inhibition mechanism that is rooted in the details of the microscopic peptide-surface interaction rather than in general phenomena such as peptide sequestration from the solution. Electronic supplementary information (ESI

Conformational Ensembles of α-Synuclein Derived Peptide with Different Osmolytes from Temperature Replica Exchange Sampling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salma Jamal

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Intrinsically disordered proteins (IDP are a class of proteins that do not have a stable three-dimensional structure and can adopt a range of conformations playing various vital functional role. Alpha-synuclein is one such IDP which can aggregate into toxic protofibrils and has been associated largely with Parkinson's disease (PD along with other neurodegenerative diseases. Osmolytes are small organic compounds that can alter the environment around the proteins by acting as denaturants or protectants for the proteins. In the present study, we have conducted a series of replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations to explore the role of osmolytes, urea which is a denaturant and TMAO (trimethylamine N-oxide, a protecting osmolyte, in aggregation and conformations of the synuclein peptide. We observed that both the osmolytes have significantly distinct impacts on the peptide and led to transitions of the conformations of the peptide from one state to other. Our findings highlighted that urea attenuated peptide aggregation and resulted in the formation of extended peptide structures whereas TMAO led to compact and folded forms of the peptide.

An automated approach to network features of protein structure ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharyya, Moitrayee; Bhat, Chanda R; Vishveshwara, Saraswathi

2013-01-01

Network theory applied to protein structures provides insights into numerous problems of biological relevance. The explosion in structural data available from PDB and simulations establishes a need to introduce a standalone-efficient program that assembles network concepts/parameters under one hood in an automated manner. Herein, we discuss the development/application of an exhaustive, user-friendly, standalone program package named PSN-Ensemble, which can handle structural ensembles generated through molecular dynamics (MD) simulation/NMR studies or from multiple X-ray structures. The novelty in network construction lies in the explicit consideration of side-chain interactions among amino acids. The program evaluates network parameters dealing with topological organization and long-range allosteric communication. The introduction of a flexible weighing scheme in terms of residue pairwise cross-correlation/interaction energy in PSN-Ensemble brings in dynamical/chemical knowledge into the network representation. Also, the results are mapped on a graphical display of the structure, allowing an easy access of network analysis to a general biological community. The potential of PSN-Ensemble toward examining structural ensemble is exemplified using MD trajectories of an ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (UbcH5b). Furthermore, insights derived from network parameters evaluated using PSN-Ensemble for single-static structures of active/inactive states of β2-adrenergic receptor and the ternary tRNA complexes of tyrosyl tRNA synthetases (from organisms across kingdoms) are discussed. PSN-Ensemble is freely available from http://vishgraph.mbu.iisc.ernet.in/PSN-Ensemble/psn_index.html. PMID:23934896

Nuclear magnetic resonance provides a quantitative description of protein conformational flexibility on physiologically important time scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Salmon, Loïc; Bouvignies, Guillaume; Markwick, Phineus; Blackledge, Martin

2011-04-12

A complete description of biomolecular activity requires an understanding of the nature and the role of protein conformational dynamics. In recent years, novel nuclear magnetic resonance-based techniques that provide hitherto inaccessible detail concerning biomolecular motions occurring on physiologically important time scales have emerged. Residual dipolar couplings (RDCs) provide precise information about time- and ensemble-averaged structural and dynamic processes with correlation times up to the millisecond and thereby encode key information for understanding biological activity. In this review, we present the application of two very different approaches to the quantitative description of protein motion using RDCs. The first is purely analytical, describing backbone dynamics in terms of diffusive motions of each peptide plane, using extensive statistical analysis to validate the proposed dynamic modes. The second is based on restraint-free accelerated molecular dynamics simulation, providing statistically sampled free energy-weighted ensembles that describe conformational fluctuations occurring on time scales from pico- to milliseconds, at atomic resolution. Remarkably, the results from these two approaches converge closely in terms of distribution and absolute amplitude of motions, suggesting that this kind of combination of analytical and numerical models is now capable of providing a unified description of protein conformational dynamics in solution.

Architecture of the nitric-oxide synthase holoenzyme reveals large conformational changes and a calmodulin-driven release of the FMN domain.

Science.gov (United States)

Yokom, Adam L; Morishima, Yoshihiro; Lau, Miranda; Su, Min; Glukhova, Alisa; Osawa, Yoichi; Southworth, Daniel R

2014-06-13

Nitric-oxide synthase (NOS) is required in mammals to generate NO for regulating blood pressure, synaptic response, and immune defense. NOS is a large homodimer with well characterized reductase and oxygenase domains that coordinate a multistep, interdomain electron transfer mechanism to oxidize l-arginine and generate NO. Ca(2+)-calmodulin (CaM) binds between the reductase and oxygenase domains to activate NO synthesis. Although NOS has long been proposed to adopt distinct conformations that alternate between interflavin and FMN-heme electron transfer steps, structures of the holoenzyme have remained elusive and the CaM-bound arrangement is unknown. Here we have applied single particle electron microscopy (EM) methods to characterize the full-length of the neuronal isoform (nNOS) complex and determine the structural mechanism of CaM activation. We have identified that nNOS adopts an ensemble of open and closed conformational states and that CaM binding induces a dramatic rearrangement of the reductase domain. Our three-dimensional reconstruction of the intact nNOS-CaM complex reveals a closed conformation and a cross-monomer arrangement with the FMN domain rotated away from the NADPH-FAD center, toward the oxygenase dimer. This work captures, for the first time, the reductase-oxygenase structural arrangement and the CaM-dependent release of the FMN domain that coordinates to drive electron transfer across the domains during catalysis. © 2014 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Ensemble modeling for aromatic production in Escherichia coli.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew L Rizk

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Ensemble Modeling (EM is a recently developed method for metabolic modeling, particularly for utilizing the effect of enzyme tuning data on the production of a specific compound to refine the model. This approach is used here to investigate the production of aromatic products in Escherichia coli. Instead of using dynamic metabolite data to fit a model, the EM approach uses phenotypic data (effects of enzyme overexpression or knockouts on the steady state production rate to screen possible models. These data are routinely generated during strain design. An ensemble of models is constructed that all reach the same steady state and are based on the same mechanistic framework at the elementary reaction level. The behavior of the models spans the kinetics allowable by thermodynamics. Then by using existing data from the literature for the overexpression of genes coding for transketolase (Tkt, transaldolase (Tal, and phosphoenolpyruvate synthase (Pps to screen the ensemble, we arrive at a set of models that properly describes the known enzyme overexpression phenotypes. This subset of models becomes more predictive as additional data are used to refine the models. The final ensemble of models demonstrates the characteristic of the cell that Tkt is the first rate controlling step, and correctly predicts that only after Tkt is overexpressed does an increase in Pps increase the production rate of aromatics. This work demonstrates that EM is able to capture the result of enzyme overexpression on aromatic producing bacteria by successfully utilizing routinely generated enzyme tuning data to guide model learning.

Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yokohata, Tokuta [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Annan, James D.; Hargreaves, Julia C. [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Collins, Matthew [University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter (United Kingdom); Jackson, Charles S.; Tobis, Michael [The University of Texas at Austin, Institute of Geophysics, 10100 Burnet Rd., ROC-196, Mail Code R2200, Austin, TX (United States); Webb, Mark J. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

2012-08-15

The performance of several state-of-the-art climate model ensembles, including two multi-model ensembles (MMEs) and four structurally different (perturbed parameter) single model ensembles (SMEs), are investigated for the first time using the rank histogram approach. In this method, the reliability of a model ensemble is evaluated from the point of view of whether the observations can be regarded as being sampled from the ensemble. Our analysis reveals that, in the MMEs, the climate variables we investigated are broadly reliable on the global scale, with a tendency towards overdispersion. On the other hand, in the SMEs, the reliability differs depending on the ensemble and variable field considered. In general, the mean state and historical trend of surface air temperature, and mean state of precipitation are reliable in the SMEs. However, variables such as sea level pressure or top-of-atmosphere clear-sky shortwave radiation do not cover a sufficiently wide range in some. It is not possible to assess whether this is a fundamental feature of SMEs generated with particular model, or a consequence of the algorithm used to select and perturb the values of the parameters. As under-dispersion is a potentially more serious issue when using ensembles to make projections, we recommend the application of rank histograms to assess reliability when designing and running perturbed physics SMEs. (orig.)

Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

2009-01-01

Optimal management and trading of wind generation calls for the providing of uncertainty estimates along with the commonly provided short-term wind power point predictions. Alternative approaches for the use of probabilistic forecasting are introduced. More precisely, focus is given to prediction...... risk indices aiming to give a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the spread of ensemble forecasts (i.e. a set...... of alternative scenarios for the coming period) for a single prediction horizon or over a took-ahead period. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how these prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and potential energy imbalances). Wind power...

Principal components analysis of protein structure ensembles calculated using NMR data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howe, Peter W.A.

2001-01-01

One important problem when calculating structures of biomolecules from NMR data is distinguishing converged structures from outlier structures. This paper describes how Principal Components Analysis (PCA) has the potential to classify calculated structures automatically, according to correlated structural variation across the population. PCA analysis has the additional advantage that it highlights regions of proteins which are varying across the population. To apply PCA, protein structures have to be reduced in complexity and this paper describes two different representations of protein structures which achieve this. The calculated structures of a 28 amino acid peptide are used to demonstrate the methods. The two different representations of protein structure are shown to give equivalent results, and correct results are obtained even though the ensemble of structures used as an example contains two different protein conformations. The PCA analysis also correctly identifies the structural differences between the two conformations

Conformational Preferences of Glycerol in the Gas Phase and in Water

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeong, Keun Hong [Korea Military Academy, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Byun, Byung Jin; Kang, Young Kee [Chungbuk National University, Cheongju (Korea, Republic of)

2012-03-15

The conformational study of glycerol has been carried out using the M06-2X/cc-pVTZ level of theory in the gas phase and the SMD M06-2X/cc-pVTZ level of theory in water in order to understand its conformational preferences and solvation effects. Most of the preferred conformers of glycerol have two C{sub 5} hydrogen bonds in the gas phase, as found by the analysis of calorimetric data. It has been known that the solvation drove the hydrogen bonds of glycerol to be weaker and its potential surface to be fatter and that glycerol exists as an ensemble of many feasible local minima in water. The calculated populations of glycerol in the gas phase and in water are consistent with the observed values, which are better than the previously calculated ones at the G2(MP2), CBS-QB3, and SM5.42 HF/6-31G(d) levels of theory

Force generation by titin folding.

Science.gov (United States)

Mártonfalvi, Zsolt; Bianco, Pasquale; Naftz, Katalin; Ferenczy, György G; Kellermayer, Miklós

2017-07-01

Titin is a giant protein that provides elasticity to muscle. As the sarcomere is stretched, titin extends hierarchically according to the mechanics of its segments. Whether titin's globular domains unfold during this process and how such unfolded domains might contribute to muscle contractility are strongly debated. To explore the force-dependent folding mechanisms, here we manipulated skeletal-muscle titin molecules with high-resolution optical tweezers. In force-clamp mode, after quenching the force (force trace contained rapid fluctuations and a gradual increase of average force, indicating that titin can develop force via dynamic transitions between its structural states en route to the native conformation. In 4 M urea, which destabilizes H-bonds hence the consolidated native domain structure, the net force increase disappeared but the fluctuations persisted. Thus, whereas net force generation is caused by the ensemble folding of the elastically-coupled domains, force fluctuations arise due to a dynamic equilibrium between unfolded and molten-globule states. Monte-Carlo simulations incorporating a compact molten-globule intermediate in the folding landscape recovered all features of our nanomechanics results. The ensemble molten-globule dynamics delivers significant added contractility that may assist sarcomere mechanics, and it may reduce the dissipative energy loss associated with titin unfolding/refolding during muscle contraction/relaxation cycles. © 2017 The Protein Society.

Fast, clash-free RNA conformational morphing using molecular junctions.

Science.gov (United States)

Héliou, Amélie; Budday, Dominik; Fonseca, Rasmus; van den Bedem, Henry

2017-07-15

Non-coding ribonucleic acids (ncRNA) are functional RNA molecules that are not translated into protein. They are extremely dynamic, adopting diverse conformational substates, which enables them to modulate their interaction with a large number of other molecules. The flexibility of ncRNA provides a challenge for probing their complex 3D conformational landscape, both experimentally and computationally. Despite their conformational diversity, ncRNAs mostly preserve their secondary structure throughout the dynamic ensemble. Here we present a kinematics-based procedure to morph an RNA molecule between conformational substates, while avoiding inter-atomic clashes. We represent an RNA as a kinematic linkage, with fixed groups of atoms as rigid bodies and rotatable bonds as degrees of freedom. Our procedure maintains RNA secondary structure by treating hydrogen bonds between base pairs as constraints. The constraints define a lower-dimensional, secondary-structure constraint manifold in conformation space, where motions are largely governed by molecular junctions of unpaired nucleotides. On a large benchmark set, we show that our morphing procedure compares favorably to peer algorithms, and can approach goal conformations to within a low all-atom RMSD by directing fewer than 1% of its atoms. Our results suggest that molecular junctions can modulate 3D structural rearrangements, while secondary structure elements guide large parts of the molecule along the transition to the correct final conformation. The source code, binaries and data are available at https://simtk.org/home/kgs . amelie.heliou@polytechnique.edu or vdbedem@stanford.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

KAUST Repository

Wang, Tong

2016-08-20

An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

Entropy of network ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Bianconi, Ginestra

2009-03-01

In this paper we generalize the concept of random networks to describe network ensembles with nontrivial features by a statistical mechanics approach. This framework is able to describe undirected and directed network ensembles as well as weighted network ensembles. These networks might have nontrivial community structure or, in the case of networks embedded in a given space, they might have a link probability with a nontrivial dependence on the distance between the nodes. These ensembles are characterized by their entropy, which evaluates the cardinality of networks in the ensemble. In particular, in this paper we define and evaluate the structural entropy, i.e., the entropy of the ensembles of undirected uncorrelated simple networks with given degree sequence. We stress the apparent paradox that scale-free degree distributions are characterized by having small structural entropy while they are so widely encountered in natural, social, and technological complex systems. We propose a solution to the paradox by proving that scale-free degree distributions are the most likely degree distribution with the corresponding value of the structural entropy. Finally, the general framework we present in this paper is able to describe microcanonical ensembles of networks as well as canonical or hidden-variable network ensembles with significant implications for the formulation of network-constructing algorithms.

Single molecule insights on conformational selection and induced fit mechanism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hatzakis, Nikos

2014-01-01

. To describe the molecular basis of this behavior, two main mechanisms have been advanced: 'induced fit' and 'conformational selection'. Our understanding of these models relies primarily on NMR, computational studies and kinetic measurements. These techniques report the average behavior of a large ensemble...... of unsynchronized molecules, often masking intrinsic dynamic behavior of proteins and biologically significant transient intermediates. Single molecule measurements are emerging as a powerful tool for characterizing protein function. They offer the direct observation and quantification of the activity, abundance...

Ensembl variation resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marin-Garcia Pablo

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org.

NYYD Ensemble

Index Scriptorium Estoniae

2002-01-01

NYYD Ensemble'i duost Traksmann - Lukk E.-S. Tüüri teosega "Symbiosis", mis on salvestatud ka hiljuti ilmunud NYYD Ensemble'i CDle. 2. märtsil Rakvere Teatri väikeses saalis ja 3. märtsil Rotermanni Soolalaos, kavas Tüür, Kaumann, Berio, Reich, Yun, Hauta-aho, Buckinx

Determining In Situ Protein Conformation and Orientation from the Amide-I Sum-Frequency Generation Spectrum: Theory and Experiment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roeters, S.J.; van Dijk, C.N.; Torres Knoop, A.; Backus, E.H.G.; Campen, R.K.; Bonn, M.; Woutersen, S.

2013-01-01

Vibrational sum-frequency generation (VSFG) spectra of the amide-I band of proteins can give detailed insight into biomolecular processes near membranes. However, interpreting these spectra in terms of the conformation and orientation of a protein can be difficult, especially in the case of complex

A genetic ensemble approach for gene-gene interaction identification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ho Joshua WK

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It has now become clear that gene-gene interactions and gene-environment interactions are ubiquitous and fundamental mechanisms for the development of complex diseases. Though a considerable effort has been put into developing statistical models and algorithmic strategies for identifying such interactions, the accurate identification of those genetic interactions has been proven to be very challenging. Methods In this paper, we propose a new approach for identifying such gene-gene and gene-environment interactions underlying complex diseases. This is a hybrid algorithm and it combines genetic algorithm (GA and an ensemble of classifiers (called genetic ensemble. Using this approach, the original problem of SNP interaction identification is converted into a data mining problem of combinatorial feature selection. By collecting various single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP subsets as well as environmental factors generated in multiple GA runs, patterns of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions can be extracted using a simple combinatorial ranking method. Also considered in this study is the idea of combining identification results obtained from multiple algorithms. A novel formula based on pairwise double fault is designed to quantify the degree of complementarity. Conclusions Our simulation study demonstrates that the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm has comparable identification power to Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR and is slightly better than Polymorphism Interaction Analysis (PIA, which are the two most popular methods for gene-gene interaction identification. More importantly, the identification results generated by using our genetic ensemble algorithm are highly complementary to those obtained by PIA and MDR. Experimental results from our simulation studies and real world data application also confirm the effectiveness of the proposed genetic ensemble algorithm, as well as the potential benefits of

Conformal and Lie superalgebras motivated from free fermionic fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Shukchuen

2003-01-01

In this paper, we construct six families of conformal superalgebras of infinite type, motivated from free quadratic fermonic fields with derivatives, and we prove their simplicity. The Lie superalgebras generated by these conformal superalgebras are proven to be simple except for a few special cases in the general linear superalgebras and the type-Q lie superalgebras, in which these Lie superalgebras have a one-dimensional centre and the quotient Lie superalgebras modulo the centre are simple. Certain natural central extensions of these families of conformal superalgebras are also given. Moreover, we prove that these conformal superalgebras are generated by their finite-dimensional subspaces of minimal weight in a certain sense. It is shown that a conformal superalgebra is simple if and only if its generated Lie superalgebra does not contain a proper nontrivial ideal with a one-variable structure

Frustration-guided motion planning reveals conformational transitions in proteins.

Science.gov (United States)

Budday, Dominik; Fonseca, Rasmus; Leyendecker, Sigrid; van den Bedem, Henry

2017-10-01

Proteins exist as conformational ensembles, exchanging between substates to perform their function. Advances in experimental techniques yield unprecedented access to structural snapshots of their conformational landscape. However, computationally modeling how proteins use collective motions to transition between substates is challenging owing to a rugged landscape and large energy barriers. Here, we present a new, robotics-inspired motion planning procedure called dCC-RRT that navigates the rugged landscape between substates by introducing dynamic, interatomic constraints to modulate frustration. The constraints balance non-native contacts and flexibility, and instantaneously redirect the motion towards sterically favorable conformations. On a test set of eight proteins determined in two conformations separated by, on average, 7.5 Å root mean square deviation (RMSD), our pathways reduced the Cα atom RMSD to the goal conformation by 78%, outperforming peer methods. We then applied dCC-RRT to examine how collective, small-scale motions of four side-chains in the active site of cyclophilin A propagate through the protein. dCC-RRT uncovered a spatially contiguous network of residues linked by steric interactions and collective motion connecting the active site to a recently proposed, non-canonical capsid binding site 25 Å away, rationalizing NMR and multi-temperature crystallography experiments. In all, dCC-RRT can reveal detailed, all-atom molecular mechanisms for small and large amplitude motions. Source code and binaries are freely available at https://github.com/ExcitedStates/KGS/. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A cDNA Immunization Strategy to Generate Nanobodies against Membrane Proteins in Native Conformation

Science.gov (United States)

Eden, Thomas; Menzel, Stephan; Wesolowski, Janusz; Bergmann, Philine; Nissen, Marion; Dubberke, Gudrun; Seyfried, Fabienne; Albrecht, Birte; Haag, Friedrich; Koch-Nolte, Friedrich

2018-01-01

Nanobodies (Nbs) are soluble, versatile, single-domain binding modules derived from the VHH variable domain of heavy-chain antibodies naturally occurring in camelids. Nbs hold huge promise as novel therapeutic biologics. Membrane proteins are among the most interesting targets for therapeutic Nbs because they are accessible to systemically injected biologics. In order to be effective, therapeutic Nbs must recognize their target membrane protein in native conformation. However, raising Nbs against membrane proteins in native conformation can pose a formidable challenge since membrane proteins typically contain one or more hydrophobic transmembrane regions and, therefore, are difficult to purify in native conformation. Here, we describe a highly efficient genetic immunization strategy that circumvents these difficulties by driving expression of the target membrane protein in native conformation by cells of the immunized camelid. The strategy encompasses ballistic transfection of skin cells with cDNA expression plasmids encoding one or more orthologs of the membrane protein of interest and, optionally, other costimulatory proteins. The plasmid is coated onto 1 µm gold particles that are then injected into the shaved and depilated skin of the camelid. A gene gun delivers a helium pulse that accelerates the DNA-coated particles to a velocity sufficient to penetrate through multiple layers of cells in the skin. This results in the exposure of the extracellular domains of the membrane protein on the cell surface of transfected cells. Repeated immunization drives somatic hypermutation and affinity maturation of target-specific heavy-chain antibodies. The VHH/Nb coding region is PCR-amplified from B cells obtained from peripheral blood or a lymph node biopsy. Specific Nbs are selected by phage display or by screening of Nb-based heavy-chain antibodies expressed as secretory proteins in transfected HEK cells. Using this strategy, we have successfully generated agonistic

‘Which-way’ collective atomic spin excitation among atomic ensembles by photon indistinguishability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Guowan; Bian Chenglin; Chen, L Q; Ou, Z Y; Zhang Weiping

2012-01-01

In spontaneous Raman scattering in an atomic ensemble, a collective atomic spin wave is created in correlation with the Stokes field. When the Stokes photons from two or more such atomic ensembles are made indistinguishable, a ‘which-way’ collective atomic spin excitation is generated among the independent atomic ensembles. We demonstrate this phenomenon experimentally by reading out the atomic spin excitations and observing interference between the read-out beams. When a single-photon projective measurement is made on the indistinguishable Stokes photons, this simple scheme can be used to entangle independent atomic ensembles. Compared to other currently used methods, this scheme can be easily scaled up and has greater efficiency. (paper)

'Lazy' quantum ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parfionov, George; Zapatrin, Roman

2006-01-01

We compare different strategies aimed to prepare an ensemble with a given density matrix ρ. Preparing the ensemble of eigenstates of ρ with appropriate probabilities can be treated as 'generous' strategy: it provides maximal accessible information about the state. Another extremity is the so-called 'Scrooge' ensemble, which is mostly stingy in sharing the information. We introduce 'lazy' ensembles which require minimal effort to prepare the density matrix by selecting pure states with respect to completely random choice. We consider two parties, Alice and Bob, playing a kind of game. Bob wishes to guess which pure state is prepared by Alice. His null hypothesis, based on the lack of any information about Alice's intention, is that Alice prepares any pure state with equal probability. Then, the average quantum state measured by Bob turns out to be ρ, and he has to make a new hypothesis about Alice's intention solely based on the information that the observed density matrix is ρ. The arising 'lazy' ensemble is shown to be the alternative hypothesis which minimizes type I error

NMR paves the way for atomic level descriptions of sparsely populated, transiently formed biomolecular conformers.

Science.gov (United States)

Sekhar, Ashok; Kay, Lewis E

2013-08-06

The importance of dynamics to biomolecular function is becoming increasingly clear. A description of the structure-function relationship must, therefore, include the role of motion, requiring a shift in paradigm from focus on a single static 3D picture to one where a given biomolecule is considered in terms of an ensemble of interconverting conformers, each with potentially diverse activities. In this Perspective, we describe how recent developments in solution NMR spectroscopy facilitate atomic resolution studies of sparsely populated, transiently formed biomolecular conformations that exchange with the native state. Examples of how this methodology is applied to protein folding and misfolding, ligand binding, and molecular recognition are provided as a means of illustrating both the power of the new techniques and the significant roles that conformationally excited protein states play in biology.

Phase Transitions, Geometrothermodynamics, and Critical Exponents of Black Holes with Conformal Anomaly

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jie-Xiong Mo

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate the phase transitions of black holes with conformal anomaly in canonical ensemble. Some interesting and novel phase transition phenomena have been discovered. It is shown that there are striking differences in both Hawking temperature and phase structure between black holes with conformal anomaly and those without it. Moreover, we probe in detail the dependence of phase transitions on the choice of parameters. The results show that black holes with conformal anomaly have much richer phase structure than those without it. There would be two, only one, or no phase transition points depending on the parameters. The corresponding parameter regions are derived both numerically and graphically. Geometrothermodynamics are built up to examine the phase structure we have discovered. It is shown that Legendre invariant thermodynamic scalar curvature diverges exactly where the specific heat diverges. Furthermore, critical behaviors are investigated by calculating the relevant critical exponents. And we prove that these critical exponents satisfy the thermodynamic scaling laws.

Dispersion Modeling Using Ensemble Forecasts Compared to ETEX Measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Straume, Anne Grete; N'dri Koffi, Ernest; Nodop, Katrin

1998-11-01

Numerous numerical models are developed to predict long-range transport of hazardous air pollution in connection with accidental releases. When evaluating and improving such a model, it is important to detect uncertainties connected to the meteorological input data. A Lagrangian dispersion model, the Severe Nuclear Accident Program, is used here to investigate the effect of errors in the meteorological input data due to analysis error. An ensemble forecast, produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is then used as model input. The ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the initial meteorological fields of the weather forecast. The perturbations are calculated from singular vectors meant to represent possible forecast developments generated by instabilities in the atmospheric flow during the early part of the forecast. The instabilities are generated by errors in the analyzed fields. Puff predictions from the dispersion model, using ensemble forecast input, are compared, and a large spread in the predicted puff evolutions is found. This shows that the quality of the meteorological input data is important for the success of the dispersion model. In order to evaluate the dispersion model, the calculations are compared with measurements from the European Tracer Experiment. The model manages to predict the measured puff evolution concerning shape and time of arrival to a fairly high extent, up to 60 h after the start of the release. The modeled puff is still too narrow in the advection direction.

Short-term ensemble radar rainfall forecasts for hydrological applications

Science.gov (United States)

Codo de Oliveira, M.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

2016-12-01

Flooding is a very common natural disaster around the world, putting local population and economy at risk. Forecasting floods several hours ahead and issuing warnings are of main importance to permit proper response in emergency situations. However, it is important to know the uncertainties related to the rainfall forecasting in order to produce more reliable forecasts. Nowcasting models (short-term rainfall forecasts) are able to produce high spatial and temporal resolution predictions that are useful in hydrological applications. Nonetheless, they are subject to uncertainties mainly due to the nowcasting model used, errors in radar rainfall estimation, temporal development of the velocity field and to the fact that precipitation processes such as growth and decay are not taken into account. In this study an ensemble generation scheme using rain gauge data as a reference to estimate radars errors is used to produce forecasts with up to 3h lead-time. The ensembles try to assess in a realistic way the residual uncertainties that remain even after correction algorithms are applied in the radar data. The ensembles produced are compered to a stochastic ensemble generator. Furthermore, the rainfall forecast output was used as an input in a hydrodynamic sewer network model and also in hydrological model for catchments of different sizes in north England. A comparative analysis was carried of how was carried out to assess how the radar uncertainties propagate into these models. The first named author is grateful to CAPES - Ciencia sem Fronteiras for funding this PhD research.

Design of a wind turbine-generator system considering the conformability to wind velocity fluctuations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wakui, Tetsuya; Hashizume, Takumi; Outa, Eisuke

1999-07-01

The conformability of the rated power output of the wind turbine-generator system and of the wind turbine type to wind velocity fluctuations are investigated with a simulation model. The authors examine three types of wind turbines: the Darrieus-Savonius hybrid, the Darrieus proper and the Propeller. These systems are mainly operated at a constant tip speed ratio, which refers to a maximum power coefficient points. As a computed result of the net extracting power, the Darrieus turbine proper has little conformability to wind velocity fluctuations because of its output characteristics. As for the other turbines, large-scale systems do not always have an advantage over small-scale systems as the effect of its dynamic characteristics. Furthermore, it is confirmed that the net extracting power of the Propeller turbine, under wind direction fluctuation, is much reduced when compared with the hybrid wind turbine. Thus, the authors conclude that the appropriate rated power output of the system exists with relation to the wind turbine type for each wind condition.

Imprinting and recalling cortical ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S; Yuste, Rafael

2016-08-12

Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent building blocks of cortical circuits. These ensembles could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations from ensembles in the visual cortex of awake mice builds neuronal ensembles that recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexisting ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single- cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

World Music Ensemble: Kulintang

Science.gov (United States)

Beegle, Amy C.

2012-01-01

As instrumental world music ensembles such as steel pan, mariachi, gamelan and West African drums are becoming more the norm than the exception in North American school music programs, there are other world music ensembles just starting to gain popularity in particular parts of the United States. The kulintang ensemble, a drum and gong ensemble…

The effect of a DeltaK280 mutation on the unfolded state of a microtubule-binding repeat in Tau.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Austin Huang

Full Text Available Tau is a natively unfolded protein that forms intracellular aggregates in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease. To decipher the mechanism underlying the formation of tau aggregates, we developed a novel approach for constructing models of natively unfolded proteins. The method, energy-minima mapping and weighting (EMW, samples local energy minima of subsequences within a natively unfolded protein and then constructs ensembles from these energetically favorable conformations that are consistent with a given set of experimental data. A unique feature of the method is that it does not strive to generate a single ensemble that represents the unfolded state. Instead we construct a number of candidate ensembles, each of which agrees with a given set of experimental constraints, and focus our analysis on local structural features that are present in all of the independently generated ensembles. Using EMW we generated ensembles that are consistent with chemical shift measurements obtained on tau constructs. Thirty models were constructed for the second microtubule binding repeat (MTBR2 in wild-type (WT tau and a DeltaK280 mutant, which is found in some forms of frontotemporal dementia. By focusing on structural features that are preserved across all ensembles, we find that the aggregation-initiating sequence, PHF6*, prefers an extended conformation in both the WT and DeltaK280 sequences. In addition, we find that residue K280 can adopt a loop/turn conformation in WT MTBR2 and that deletion of this residue, which can adopt nonextended states, leads to an increase in locally extended conformations near the C-terminus of PHF6*. As an increased preference for extended states near the C-terminus of PHF6* may facilitate the propagation of beta-structure downstream from PHF6*, these results explain how a deletion at position 280 can promote the formation of tau aggregates.

Girsanov reweighting for path ensembles and Markov state models

Science.gov (United States)

Donati, L.; Hartmann, C.; Keller, B. G.

2017-06-01

The sensitivity of molecular dynamics on changes in the potential energy function plays an important role in understanding the dynamics and function of complex molecules. We present a method to obtain path ensemble averages of a perturbed dynamics from a set of paths generated by a reference dynamics. It is based on the concept of path probability measure and the Girsanov theorem, a result from stochastic analysis to estimate a change of measure of a path ensemble. Since Markov state models (MSMs) of the molecular dynamics can be formulated as a combined phase-space and path ensemble average, the method can be extended to reweight MSMs by combining it with a reweighting of the Boltzmann distribution. We demonstrate how to efficiently implement the Girsanov reweighting in a molecular dynamics simulation program by calculating parts of the reweighting factor "on the fly" during the simulation, and we benchmark the method on test systems ranging from a two-dimensional diffusion process and an artificial many-body system to alanine dipeptide and valine dipeptide in implicit and explicit water. The method can be used to study the sensitivity of molecular dynamics on external perturbations as well as to reweight trajectories generated by enhanced sampling schemes to the original dynamics.

Characterization of the conformational equilibrium between the two major substates of RNase A using NMR chemical shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

Camilloni, Carlo; Robustelli, Paul; De Simone, Alfonso; Cavalli, Andrea; Vendruscolo, Michele

2012-03-07

Following the recognition that NMR chemical shifts can be used for protein structure determination, rapid advances have recently been made in methods for extending this strategy for proteins and protein complexes of increasing size and complexity. A remaining major challenge is to develop approaches to exploit the information contained in the chemical shifts about conformational fluctuations in native states of proteins. In this work we show that it is possible to determine an ensemble of conformations representing the free energy surface of RNase A using chemical shifts as replica-averaged restraints in molecular dynamics simulations. Analysis of this surface indicates that chemical shifts can be used to characterize the conformational equilibrium between the two major substates of this protein. © 2012 American Chemical Society

A grand-canonical ensemble of randomly triangulated surfaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jurkiewicz, J.; Krzywicki, A.; Petersson, B.

1986-01-01

An algorithm is presented generating the grand-canonical ensemble of discrete, randomly triangulated Polyakov surfaces. The algorithm is used to calculate the susceptibility exponent, which controls the existence of the continuum limit of the considered model, for the dimensionality of the embedding space ranging from 0 to 20. (orig.)

Computational modeling of allosteric regulation in the hsp90 chaperones: a statistical ensemble analysis of protein structure networks and allosteric communications.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristin Blacklock

2014-06-01

Full Text Available A fundamental role of the Hsp90 chaperone in regulating functional activity of diverse protein clients is essential for the integrity of signaling networks. In this work we have combined biophysical simulations of the Hsp90 crystal structures with the protein structure network analysis to characterize the statistical ensemble of allosteric interaction networks and communication pathways in the Hsp90 chaperones. We have found that principal structurally stable communities could be preserved during dynamic changes in the conformational ensemble. The dominant contribution of the inter-domain rigidity to the interaction networks has emerged as a common factor responsible for the thermodynamic stability of the active chaperone form during the ATPase cycle. Structural stability analysis using force constant profiling of the inter-residue fluctuation distances has identified a network of conserved structurally rigid residues that could serve as global mediating sites of allosteric communication. Mapping of the conformational landscape with the network centrality parameters has demonstrated that stable communities and mediating residues may act concertedly with the shifts in the conformational equilibrium and could describe the majority of functionally significant chaperone residues. The network analysis has revealed a relationship between structural stability, global centrality and functional significance of hotspot residues involved in chaperone regulation. We have found that allosteric interactions in the Hsp90 chaperone may be mediated by modules of structurally stable residues that display high betweenness in the global interaction network. The results of this study have suggested that allosteric interactions in the Hsp90 chaperone may operate via a mechanism that combines rapid and efficient communication by a single optimal pathway of structurally rigid residues and more robust signal transmission using an ensemble of suboptimal multiple

Encoding qubits into oscillators with atomic ensembles and squeezed light

Science.gov (United States)

Motes, Keith R.; Baragiola, Ben Q.; Gilchrist, Alexei; Menicucci, Nicolas C.

2017-05-01

The Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill (GKP) encoding of a qubit within an oscillator provides a number of advantages when used in a fault-tolerant architecture for quantum computing, most notably that Gaussian operations suffice to implement all single- and two-qubit Clifford gates. The main drawback of the encoding is that the logical states themselves are challenging to produce. Here we present a method for generating optical GKP-encoded qubits by coupling an atomic ensemble to a squeezed state of light. Particular outcomes of a subsequent spin measurement of the ensemble herald successful generation of the resource state in the optical mode. We analyze the method in terms of the resources required (total spin and amount of squeezing) and the probability of success. We propose a physical implementation using a Faraday-based quantum nondemolition interaction.

{kappa}-deformed realization of D=4 conformal algebra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klimek, M. [Technical Univ. of Czestochowa, Inst. of Mathematics and Computer Science, Czestochowa (Poland); Lukierski, J. [Universite de Geneve, Department de Physique Theorique, Geneve (Switzerland)

1995-07-01

We describe the generators of {kappa}-conformal transformations, leaving invariant the {kappa}-deformed d`Alembert equation. In such a way one obtains the conformal extension of-shell spin spin zero realization of {kappa}-deformed Poincare algebra. Finally the algebraic structure of {kappa}-deformed conformal algebra is discussed. (author). 23 refs.

Synchronization dynamics in a small pacemaker neuronal ensemble via a robust adaptive controller

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cornejo-Pérez, O.; Solis-Perales, G.C.; Arenas-Prado, J.A.

2012-01-01

The synchronization dynamics of a pacemaker neuronal ensemble under the action of a control command is studied herein. The ensemble corresponds to the pyloric central pattern generator of the stomatogastric ganglion of lobster. The desired dynamics is provided by means of an external master neuron and it is induced via a nonlinear controller. Such a controller is composed of a linearizing-like controller and a high gain observer; the controller is able to counteract uncertainties and external perturbations in the controlled system. Numerical simulations of the robust synchronization dynamics of the master neuron and the pacemaker neuronal ensemble are displayed.

Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

KAUST Repository

Toye, Habib

2017-05-26

We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

Prediction of N-Methyl-D-Aspartate Receptor GluN1-Ligand Binding Affinity by a Novel SVM-Pose/SVM-Score Combinatorial Ensemble Docking Scheme.

Science.gov (United States)

Leong, Max K; Syu, Ren-Guei; Ding, Yi-Lung; Weng, Ching-Feng

2017-01-06

The glycine-binding site of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) subunit GluN1 is a potential pharmacological target for neurodegenerative disorders. A novel combinatorial ensemble docking scheme using ligand and protein conformation ensembles and customized support vector machine (SVM)-based models to select the docked pose and to predict the docking score was generated for predicting the NMDAR GluN1-ligand binding affinity. The predicted root mean square deviation (RMSD) values in pose by SVM-Pose models were found to be in good agreement with the observed values (n = 30, r 2  = 0.928-0.988,  = 0.894-0.954, RMSE = 0.002-0.412, s = 0.001-0.214), and the predicted pK i values by SVM-Score were found to be in good agreement with the observed values for the training samples (n = 24, r 2  = 0.967,  = 0.899, RMSE = 0.295, s = 0.170) and test samples (n = 13, q 2  = 0.894, RMSE = 0.437, s = 0.202). When subjected to various statistical validations, the developed SVM-Pose and SVM-Score models consistently met the most stringent criteria. A mock test asserted the predictivity of this novel docking scheme. Collectively, this accurate novel combinatorial ensemble docking scheme can be used to predict the NMDAR GluN1-ligand binding affinity for facilitating drug discovery.

Virtual screening for potential inhibitors of Mcl-1 conformations sampled by normal modes, molecular dynamics, and nuclear magnetic resonance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glantz-Gashai Y

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Yitav Glantz-Gashai,* Tomer Meirson,* Eli Reuveni, Abraham O Samson Faculty of Medicine in the Galilee, Bar Ilan University, Safed, Israel *These authors contributed equally to this work Abstract: Myeloid cell leukemia-1 (Mcl-1 is often overexpressed in human cancer and is an important target for developing antineoplastic drugs. In this study, a data set containing 2.3 million lead-like molecules and a data set of all the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA-approved drugs are virtually screened for potential Mcl-1 ligands using Protein Data Bank (PDB ID 2MHS. The potential Mcl-1 ligands are evaluated and computationally docked on to three conformation ensembles generated by normal mode analysis (NMA, molecular dynamics (MD, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR, respectively. The evaluated potential Mcl-1 ligands are then compared with their clinical use. Remarkably, half of the top 30 potential drugs are used clinically to treat cancer, thus partially validating our virtual screen. The partial validation also favors the idea that the other half of the top 30 potential drugs could be used in the treatment of cancer. The normal mode-, MD-, and NMR-based conformation greatly expand the conformational sampling used herein for in silico identification of potential Mcl-1 inhibitors. Keywords: virtual screening, Mcl-1, molecular dynamics, NMR, normal modes

OSPREY: protein design with ensembles, flexibility, and provable algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Gainza, Pablo; Roberts, Kyle E; Georgiev, Ivelin; Lilien, Ryan H; Keedy, Daniel A; Chen, Cheng-Yu; Reza, Faisal; Anderson, Amy C; Richardson, David C; Richardson, Jane S; Donald, Bruce R

2013-01-01

We have developed a suite of protein redesign algorithms that improves realistic in silico modeling of proteins. These algorithms are based on three characteristics that make them unique: (1) improved flexibility of the protein backbone, protein side-chains, and ligand to accurately capture the conformational changes that are induced by mutations to the protein sequence; (2) modeling of proteins and ligands as ensembles of low-energy structures to better approximate binding affinity; and (3) a globally optimal protein design search, guaranteeing that the computational predictions are optimal with respect to the input model. Here, we illustrate the importance of these three characteristics. We then describe OSPREY, a protein redesign suite that implements our protein design algorithms. OSPREY has been used prospectively, with experimental validation, in several biomedically relevant settings. We show in detail how OSPREY has been used to predict resistance mutations and explain why improved flexibility, ensembles, and provability are essential for this application. OSPREY is free and open source under a Lesser GPL license. The latest version is OSPREY 2.0. The program, user manual, and source code are available at www.cs.duke.edu/donaldlab/software.php. osprey@cs.duke.edu. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ensemble Clustering using Semidefinite Programming with Applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Vikas; Mukherjee, Lopamudra; Peng, Jiming; Xu, Jinhui

2010-05-01

In this paper, we study the ensemble clustering problem, where the input is in the form of multiple clustering solutions. The goal of ensemble clustering algorithms is to aggregate the solutions into one solution that maximizes the agreement in the input ensemble. We obtain several new results for this problem. Specifically, we show that the notion of agreement under such circumstances can be better captured using a 2D string encoding rather than a voting strategy, which is common among existing approaches. Our optimization proceeds by first constructing a non-linear objective function which is then transformed into a 0-1 Semidefinite program (SDP) using novel convexification techniques. This model can be subsequently relaxed to a polynomial time solvable SDP. In addition to the theoretical contributions, our experimental results on standard machine learning and synthetic datasets show that this approach leads to improvements not only in terms of the proposed agreement measure but also the existing agreement measures based on voting strategies. In addition, we identify several new application scenarios for this problem. These include combining multiple image segmentations and generating tissue maps from multiple-channel Diffusion Tensor brain images to identify the underlying structure of the brain.

Probing Protein Multidimensional Conformational Fluctuations by Single-Molecule Multiparameter Photon Stamping Spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

understanding of the enzymatic reaction turnover dynamics associated with overall enzyme as well as the specific active-site conformational fluctuations that are not identifiable and resolvable in the conventional ensemble-averaged experiment. PMID:25222115

A cDNA Immunization Strategy to Generate Nanobodies against Membrane Proteins in Native Conformation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Eden

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Nanobodies (Nbs are soluble, versatile, single-domain binding modules derived from the VHH variable domain of heavy-chain antibodies naturally occurring in camelids. Nbs hold huge promise as novel therapeutic biologics. Membrane proteins are among the most interesting targets for therapeutic Nbs because they are accessible to systemically injected biologics. In order to be effective, therapeutic Nbs must recognize their target membrane protein in native conformation. However, raising Nbs against membrane proteins in native conformation can pose a formidable challenge since membrane proteins typically contain one or more hydrophobic transmembrane regions and, therefore, are difficult to purify in native conformation. Here, we describe a highly efficient genetic immunization strategy that circumvents these difficulties by driving expression of the target membrane protein in native conformation by cells of the immunized camelid. The strategy encompasses ballistic transfection of skin cells with cDNA expression plasmids encoding one or more orthologs of the membrane protein of interest and, optionally, other costimulatory proteins. The plasmid is coated onto 1 µm gold particles that are then injected into the shaved and depilated skin of the camelid. A gene gun delivers a helium pulse that accelerates the DNA-coated particles to a velocity sufficient to penetrate through multiple layers of cells in the skin. This results in the exposure of the extracellular domains of the membrane protein on the cell surface of transfected cells. Repeated immunization drives somatic hypermutation and affinity maturation of target-specific heavy-chain antibodies. The VHH/Nb coding region is PCR-amplified from B cells obtained from peripheral blood or a lymph node biopsy. Specific Nbs are selected by phage display or by screening of Nb-based heavy-chain antibodies expressed as secretory proteins in transfected HEK cells. Using this strategy, we have successfully

Localization of atomic ensembles via superfluorescence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macovei, Mihai; Evers, Joerg; Keitel, Christoph H.; Zubairy, M. Suhail

2007-01-01

The subwavelength localization of an ensemble of atoms concentrated to a small volume in space is investigated. The localization relies on the interaction of the ensemble with a standing wave laser field. The light scattered in the interaction of the standing wave field and the atom ensemble depends on the position of the ensemble relative to the standing wave nodes. This relation can be described by a fluorescence intensity profile, which depends on the standing wave field parameters and the ensemble properties and which is modified due to collective effects in the ensemble of nearby particles. We demonstrate that the intensity profile can be tailored to suit different localization setups. Finally, we apply these results to two localization schemes. First, we show how to localize an ensemble fixed at a certain position in the standing wave field. Second, we discuss localization of an ensemble passing through the standing wave field

Ensembl 2017

OpenAIRE

Aken, Bronwen L.; Achuthan, Premanand; Akanni, Wasiu; Amode, M. Ridwan; Bernsdorff, Friederike; Bhai, Jyothish; Billis, Konstantinos; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Cummins, Carla; Clapham, Peter; Gil, Laurent; Gir?n, Carlos Garc?a; Gordon, Leo; Hourlier, Thibaut; Hunt, Sarah E.

2016-01-01

Ensembl (www.ensembl.org) is a database and genome browser for enabling research on vertebrate genomes. We import, analyse, curate and integrate a diverse collection of large-scale reference data to create a more comprehensive view of genome biology than would be possible from any individual dataset. Our extensive data resources include evidence-based gene and regulatory region annotation, genome variation and gene trees. An accompanying suite of tools, infrastructure and programmatic access ...

Ensemble Sampling

OpenAIRE

Lu, Xiuyuan; Van Roy, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems. In its basic form, the algorithm requires computing and sampling from a posterior distribution over models, which is tractable only for simple special cases. This paper develops ensemble sampling, which aims to approximate Thompson sampling while maintaining tractability even in the face of complex models such as neural networks. Ensemble sampling dramatically expands on the range of applica...

NCAR's Experimental Real-time Convection-allowing Ensemble Prediction System

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, C. S.; Romine, G. S.; Sobash, R.; Fossell, K.

2016-12-01

Since April 2015, the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Laboratory, in collaboration with NCAR's Computational Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), has been producing daily, real-time, 10-member, 48-hr ensemble forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (http://ensemble.ucar.edu). These computationally-intensive, next-generation forecasts are produced on the Yellowstone supercomputer, have been embraced by both amateur and professional weather forecasters, are widely used by NCAR and university researchers, and receive considerable attention on social media. Initial conditions are supplied by NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) software and the forecast model is NCAR's Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; both WRF and DART are community tools. This presentation will focus on cutting-edge research results leveraging the ensemble dataset, including winter weather predictability, severe weather forecasting, and power outage modeling. Additionally, the unique design of the real-time analysis and forecast system and computational challenges and solutions will be described.

Social conformity despite individual preferences for distinctiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Smaldino, Paul E; Epstein, Joshua M

2015-03-01

We demonstrate that individual behaviours directed at the attainment of distinctiveness can in fact produce complete social conformity. We thus offer an unexpected generative mechanism for this central social phenomenon. Specifically, we establish that agents who have fixed needs to be distinct and adapt their positions to achieve distinctiveness goals, can nevertheless self-organize to a limiting state of absolute conformity. This seemingly paradoxical result is deduced formally from a small number of natural assumptions and is then explored at length computationally. Interesting departures from this conformity equilibrium are also possible, including divergence in positions. The effect of extremist minorities on these dynamics is discussed. A simple extension is then introduced, which allows the model to generate and maintain social diversity, including multimodal distinctiveness distributions. The paper contributes formal definitions, analytical deductions and counterintuitive findings to the literature on individual distinctiveness and social conformity.

EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms

KAUST Repository

Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni; Theofilatos, Konstantinos A.; Kleftogiannis, Dimitrios A.; Likothanasis, Spiridon D.; Tsakalidis, Athanasios K.; Mavroudi, Seferina P.

2014-01-01

do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel

Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

2012-12-01

forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.

Conformal Nets II: Conformal Blocks

Science.gov (United States)

Bartels, Arthur; Douglas, Christopher L.; Henriques, André

2017-08-01

Conformal nets provide a mathematical formalism for conformal field theory. Associated to a conformal net with finite index, we give a construction of the `bundle of conformal blocks', a representation of the mapping class groupoid of closed topological surfaces into the category of finite-dimensional projective Hilbert spaces. We also construct infinite-dimensional spaces of conformal blocks for topological surfaces with smooth boundary. We prove that the conformal blocks satisfy a factorization formula for gluing surfaces along circles, and an analogous formula for gluing surfaces along intervals. We use this interval factorization property to give a new proof of the modularity of the category of representations of a conformal net.

EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei; Yuan, Xiaoru; Liu, Junfeng; Liang, Jie

2016-04-19

We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based on ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.

A pH-dependent conformational ensemble mediates proton transport through the influenza A/M2 protein†

Science.gov (United States)

Polishchuk, Alexei L.; Lear, James D.; Ma, Chunlong; Lamb, Robert A.; Pinto, Lawrence H.; DeGrado, William F.

2010-01-01

The influenza A M2 protein exhibits inwardly rectifying, pH-activated proton transport that saturates at low pH. A comparison of high-resolution structures of the transmembrane domain at high and low pH suggests that pH-dependent conformational changes may facilitate proton conduction by alternately changing the accessibility of the N-terminal and C-terminal regions of the channel as a proton transits through the transmembrane domain. Here, we show that M2 functionally reconstituted in liposomes populates at least three different conformational states over a physiologically relevant pH range, with transition midpoints that are consistent with previously reported His37 pKas. We then develop and test two similar, quantitative mechanistic models of proton transport, where protonation shifts the equilibrium between structural states having different proton affinities and solvent accessibilities. The models account well for a collection of experimental data sets over a wide range of pHs and voltages and require only a small number of adjustable parameters to accurately describe the data. While the kinetic models do not require any specific conformation for the protein, they nevertheless are consistent with a large body of structural information based on high-resolution NMR and crystallographic structures, optical spectroscopy, and MD calculations. PMID:20968306

Elucidating Ligand-Modulated Conformational Landscape of GPCRs Using Cloud-Computing Approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Shukla, Diwakar; Lawrenz, Morgan; Pande, Vijay S

2015-01-01

G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) are a versatile family of membrane-bound signaling proteins. Despite the recent successes in obtaining crystal structures of GPCRs, much needs to be learned about the conformational changes associated with their activation. Furthermore, the mechanism by which ligands modulate the activation of GPCRs has remained elusive. Molecular simulations provide a way of obtaining detailed an atomistic description of GPCR activation dynamics. However, simulating GPCR activation is challenging due to the long timescales involved and the associated challenge of gaining insights from the "Big" simulation datasets. Here, we demonstrate how cloud-computing approaches have been used to tackle these challenges and obtain insights into the activation mechanism of GPCRs. In particular, we review the use of Markov state model (MSM)-based sampling algorithms for sampling milliseconds of dynamics of a major drug target, the G-protein-coupled receptor β2-AR. MSMs of agonist and inverse agonist-bound β2-AR reveal multiple activation pathways and how ligands function via modulation of the ensemble of activation pathways. We target this ensemble of conformations with computer-aided drug design approaches, with the goal of designing drugs that interact more closely with diverse receptor states, for overall increased efficacy and specificity. We conclude by discussing how cloud-based approaches present a powerful and broadly available tool for studying the complex biological systems routinely. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conformal symmetries of FRW accelerating cosmologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kehagias, A.; Riotto, A.

2014-01-01

We show that any accelerating Friedmann–Robertson–Walker (FRW) cosmology with equation of state w<−1/3 (and therefore not only a de Sitter stage with w=−1) exhibits three-dimensional conformal symmetry on future constant-time hypersurfaces if the bulk theory is invariant under bulk conformal Killing vectors. We also offer an alternative derivation of this result in terms of conformal Killing vectors and show that long wavelength comoving curvature perturbations of the perturbed FRW metric are just conformal Killing motions of the FRW background. We then extend the boundary conformal symmetry to the bulk for accelerating cosmologies. Our findings indicate that one can easily generate perturbations of scalar fields which are not only scale invariant, but also fully conformally invariant on super-Hubble scales. Measuring a scale-invariant power spectrum for the cosmological perturbation does not automatically imply that the universe went through a de Sitter stage

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

2015-12-08

Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

Conformation, orientation and interaction in molecular monolayers: A surface second harmonic and sum frequency generation study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Superfine, R.; Huang, J.Y.; Shen, Y.R.

1988-12-01

We have used sum frequency generation (SFG) to study the order in a silane monolayer before and after the deposition of a coadsorbed liquid crystal monolayer. We observe an increase in the order of the chain of the silane molecule induced by the interpenetration of the liquid crystal molecules. By using second harmonic generation (SHG) and SFG, we have studied the orientation and conformation of the liquid crystal molecule on clean and silane coated glass surfaces. On both surfaces, the biphenyl group is tilted by 70 degree with the alkyl chain end pointing away from the surface. The shift in the C-H stretch frequencies in the coadsorbed system indicates a significant interaction between molecules. 9 refs., 3 figs

Relation between Protein Intrinsic Normal Mode Weights and Pre-Existing Conformer Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozgur, Beytullah; Ozdemir, E Sila; Gursoy, Attila; Keskin, Ozlem

2017-04-20

Intrinsic fluctuations of a protein enable it to sample a large repertoire of conformers including the open and closed forms. These distinct forms of the protein called conformational substates pre-exist together in equilibrium as an ensemble independent from its ligands. The role of ligand might be simply to alter the equilibrium toward the most appropriate form for binding. Normal mode analysis is proved to be useful in identifying the directions of conformational changes between substates. In this study, we demonstrate that the ratios of normalized weights of a few normal modes driving the protein between its substates can give insights about the ratios of kinetic conversion rates of the substates, although a direct relation between the eigenvalues and kinetic conversion rates or populations of each substate could not be observed. The correlation between the normalized mode weight ratios and the kinetic rate ratios is around 83% on a set of 11 non-enzyme proteins and around 59% on a set of 17 enzymes. The results are suggestive that mode motions carry intrinsic relations with thermodynamics and kinetics of the proteins.

Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-04-01

Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wohling, Thomas [NON LANL

2008-01-01

Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

The canonical ensemble redefined - 1: Formalism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venkataraman, R.

1984-12-01

For studying the thermodynamic properties of systems we propose an ensemble that lies in between the familiar canonical and microcanonical ensembles. We point out the transition from the canonical to microcanonical ensemble and prove from a comparative study that all these ensembles do not yield the same results even in the thermodynamic limit. An investigation of the coupling between two or more systems with these ensembles suggests that the state of thermodynamical equilibrium is a special case of statistical equilibrium. (author)

Extensions and applications of ensemble-of-trees methods in machine learning

Science.gov (United States)

Bleich, Justin

Ensemble-of-trees algorithms have emerged to the forefront of machine learning due to their ability to generate high forecasting accuracy for a wide array of regression and classification problems. Classic ensemble methodologies such as random forests (RF) and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) rely on algorithmic procedures to generate fits to data. In contrast, more recent ensemble techniques such as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and Dynamic Trees (DT) focus on an underlying Bayesian probability model to generate the fits. These new probability model-based approaches show much promise versus their algorithmic counterparts, but also offer substantial room for improvement. The first part of this thesis focuses on methodological advances for ensemble-of-trees techniques with an emphasis on the more recent Bayesian approaches. In particular, we focus on extensions of BART in four distinct ways. First, we develop a more robust implementation of BART for both research and application. We then develop a principled approach to variable selection for BART as well as the ability to naturally incorporate prior information on important covariates into the algorithm. Next, we propose a method for handling missing data that relies on the recursive structure of decision trees and does not require imputation. Last, we relax the assumption of homoskedasticity in the BART model to allow for parametric modeling of heteroskedasticity. The second part of this thesis returns to the classic algorithmic approaches in the context of classification problems with asymmetric costs of forecasting errors. First we consider the performance of RF and SGB more broadly and demonstrate its superiority to logistic regression for applications in criminology with asymmetric costs. Next, we use RF to forecast unplanned hospital readmissions upon patient discharge with asymmetric costs taken into account. Finally, we explore the construction of stable decision trees for forecasts of

Improvements to robotics-inspired conformational sampling in rosetta.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amelie Stein

Full Text Available To accurately predict protein conformations in atomic detail, a computational method must be capable of sampling models sufficiently close to the native structure. All-atom sampling is difficult because of the vast number of possible conformations and extremely rugged energy landscapes. Here, we test three sampling strategies to address these difficulties: conformational diversification, intensification of torsion and omega-angle sampling and parameter annealing. We evaluate these strategies in the context of the robotics-based kinematic closure (KIC method for local conformational sampling in Rosetta on an established benchmark set of 45 12-residue protein segments without regular secondary structure. We quantify performance as the fraction of sub-Angstrom models generated. While improvements with individual strategies are only modest, the combination of intensification and annealing strategies into a new "next-generation KIC" method yields a four-fold increase over standard KIC in the median percentage of sub-Angstrom models across the dataset. Such improvements enable progress on more difficult problems, as demonstrated on longer segments, several of which could not be accurately remodeled with previous methods. Given its improved sampling capability, next-generation KIC should allow advances in other applications such as local conformational remodeling of multiple segments simultaneously, flexible backbone sequence design, and development of more accurate energy functions.

Ensemble methods for handwritten digit recognition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Lars Kai; Liisberg, Christian; Salamon, P.

1992-01-01

Neural network ensembles are applied to handwritten digit recognition. The individual networks of the ensemble are combinations of sparse look-up tables (LUTs) with random receptive fields. It is shown that the consensus of a group of networks outperforms the best individual of the ensemble....... It is further shown that it is possible to estimate the ensemble performance as well as the learning curve on a medium-size database. In addition the authors present preliminary analysis of experiments on a large database and show that state-of-the-art performance can be obtained using the ensemble approach...... by optimizing the receptive fields. It is concluded that it is possible to improve performance significantly by introducing moderate-size ensembles; in particular, a 20-25% improvement has been found. The ensemble random LUTs, when trained on a medium-size database, reach a performance (without rejects) of 94...

Development of Super-Ensemble techniques for ocean analyses: the Mediterranean Sea case

Science.gov (United States)

Pistoia, Jenny; Pinardi, Nadia; Oddo, Paolo; Collins, Matthew; Korres, Gerasimos; Drillet, Yann

2017-04-01

Short-term ocean analyses for Sea Surface Temperature SST in the Mediterranean Sea can be improved by a statistical post-processing technique, called super-ensemble. This technique consists in a multi-linear regression algorithm applied to a Multi-Physics Multi-Model Super-Ensemble (MMSE) dataset, a collection of different operational forecasting analyses together with ad-hoc simulations produced by modifying selected numerical model parameterizations. A new linear regression algorithm based on Empirical Orthogonal Function filtering techniques is capable to prevent overfitting problems, even if best performances are achieved when we add correlation to the super-ensemble structure using a simple spatial filter applied after the linear regression. Our outcomes show that super-ensemble performances depend on the selection of an unbiased operator and the length of the learning period, but the quality of the generating MMSE dataset has the largest impact on the MMSE analysis Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) evaluated with respect to observed satellite SST. Lower RMSE analysis estimates result from the following choices: 15 days training period, an overconfident MMSE dataset (a subset with the higher quality ensemble members), and the least square algorithm being filtered a posteriori.

Eigenfunction statistics of Wishart Brownian ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, Pragya

2017-01-01

We theoretically analyze the eigenfunction fluctuation measures for a Hermitian ensemble which appears as an intermediate state of the perturbation of a stationary ensemble by another stationary ensemble of Wishart (Laguerre) type. Similar to the perturbation by a Gaussian stationary ensemble, the measures undergo a diffusive dynamics in terms of the perturbation parameter but the energy-dependence of the fluctuations is different in the two cases. This may have important consequences for the eigenfunction dynamics as well as phase transition studies in many areas of complexity where Brownian ensembles appear. (paper)

A convection-allowing ensemble forecast based on the breeding growth mode and associated optimization of precipitation forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiang; He, Hongrang; Chen, Chaohui; Miao, Ziqing; Bai, Shigang

2017-10-01

A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment on a squall line was conducted based on the breeding growth mode (BGM). Meanwhile, the probability matched mean (PMM) and neighborhood ensemble probability (NEP) methods were used to optimize the associated precipitation forecast. The ensemble forecast predicted the precipitation tendency accurately, which was closer to the observation than in the control forecast. For heavy rainfall, the precipitation center produced by the ensemble forecast was also better. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) results indicated that the ensemble mean was skillful in light rainfall, while the PMM produced better probability distribution of precipitation for heavy rainfall. Preliminary results demonstrated that convection-allowing ensemble forecast could improve precipitation forecast skill through providing valuable probability forecasts. It is necessary to employ new methods, such as the PMM and NEP, to generate precipitation probability forecasts. Nonetheless, the lack of spread and the overprediction of precipitation by the ensemble members are still problems that need to be solved.

Measuring social interaction in music ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Volpe, Gualtiero; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano

2016-05-05

Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances. © 2016 The Author(s).

Joys of Community Ensemble Playing: The Case of the Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, Yuan-Mei; Kao, Kai-Chi

2012-01-01

The Happy Roll Elastic Ensemble (HREE) is a community music ensemble supported by Tainan Culture Centre in Taiwan. With enjoyment and friendship as its primary goals, it aims to facilitate the joys of ensemble playing and the spirit of social networking. This article highlights the key aspects of HREE's development in its first two years…

Ensemble Data Mining Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Oza, Nikunj C.

2004-01-01

Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.

Dynamic energy landscapes of riboswitches help interpret conformational rearrangements and function.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulio Quarta

Full Text Available Riboswitches are RNAs that modulate gene expression by ligand-induced conformational changes. However, the way in which sequence dictates alternative folding pathways of gene regulation remains unclear. In this study, we compute energy landscapes, which describe the accessible secondary structures for a range of sequence lengths, to analyze the transcriptional process as a given sequence elongates to full length. In line with experimental evidence, we find that most riboswitch landscapes can be characterized by three broad classes as a function of sequence length in terms of the distribution and barrier type of the conformational clusters: low-barrier landscape with an ensemble of different conformations in equilibrium before encountering a substrate; barrier-free landscape in which a direct, dominant "downhill" pathway to the minimum free energy structure is apparent; and a barrier-dominated landscape with two isolated conformational states, each associated with a different biological function. Sharing concepts with the "new view" of protein folding energy landscapes, we term the three sequence ranges above as the sensing, downhill folding, and functional windows, respectively. We find that these energy landscape patterns are conserved in various riboswitch classes, though the order of the windows may vary. In fact, the order of the three windows suggests either kinetic or thermodynamic control of ligand binding. These findings help understand riboswitch structure/function relationships and open new avenues to riboswitch design.

Embedded random matrix ensembles from nuclear structure and their recent applications

Science.gov (United States)

Kota, V. K. B.; Chavda, N. D.

Embedded random matrix ensembles generated by random interactions (of low body rank and usually two-body) in the presence of a one-body mean field, introduced in nuclear structure physics, are now established to be indispensable in describing statistical properties of a large number of isolated finite quantum many-particle systems. Lie algebra symmetries of the interactions, as identified from nuclear shell model and the interacting boson model, led to the introduction of a variety of embedded ensembles (EEs). These ensembles with a mean field and chaos generating two-body interaction generate in three different stages, delocalization of wave functions in the Fock space of the mean-field basis states. The last stage corresponds to what one may call thermalization and complex nuclei, as seen from many shell model calculations, lie in this region. Besides briefly describing them, their recent applications to nuclear structure are presented and they are (i) nuclear level densities with interactions; (ii) orbit occupancies; (iii) neutrinoless double beta decay nuclear transition matrix elements as transition strengths. In addition, their applications are also presented briefly that go beyond nuclear structure and they are (i) fidelity, decoherence, entanglement and thermalization in isolated finite quantum systems with interactions; (ii) quantum transport in disordered networks connected by many-body interactions with centrosymmetry; (iii) semicircle to Gaussian transition in eigenvalue densities with k-body random interactions and its relation to the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model for majorana fermions.

Comprehensive Study on Lexicon-based Ensemble Classification Sentiment Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Łukasz Augustyniak

2015-12-01

Full Text Available We propose a novel method for counting sentiment orientation that outperforms supervised learning approaches in time and memory complexity and is not statistically significantly different from them in accuracy. Our method consists of a novel approach to generating unigram, bigram and trigram lexicons. The proposed method, called frequentiment, is based on calculating the frequency of features (words in the document and averaging their impact on the sentiment score as opposed to documents that do not contain these features. Afterwards, we use ensemble classification to improve the overall accuracy of the method. What is important is that the frequentiment-based lexicons with sentiment threshold selection outperform other popular lexicons and some supervised learners, while being 3–5 times faster than the supervised approach. We compare 37 methods (lexicons, ensembles with lexicon’s predictions as input and supervised learners applied to 10 Amazon review data sets and provide the first statistical comparison of the sentiment annotation methods that include ensemble approaches. It is one of the most comprehensive comparisons of domain sentiment analysis in the literature.

From wind ensembles to probabilistic information about future wind power production - results from an actual application

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

2006-01-01

on the wind power ensemble forecasts. Given measurements of power production, representing a region or a single wind farm, we have developed methods applicable for these two steps. While (ii) should in principle be a simple task we found that the probabilistic information contained in the wind power ensembles...... horizon we aim at supplying quantiles of the wind power production conditional on the information available at the time at which the forecast is generated. This involves: (i) transformation of meteorological ensemble forecasts into wind power ensemble forecasts and (ii) calculation of quantiles based....... The application use ECMWF-ensembles. One setup corresponds to an offshore wind farm (Nysted, Denmark) and one corresponds to regional forecasting (Western Denmark). In the paper we analyze the results obtained from 8 months of actual operation of this system. It is concluded that the demo-application produce...

Conformal collineations and anisotropic fluids in general relativity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duggal, K.L.; Sharma, R.

1986-01-01

Recently, Herrera et al. [L. Herrera, J. Jimenez, L. Leal, J. Ponce de Leon, M. Esculpi, and V. Galino, J. Math. Phys. 25, 3274 (1984)] studied the consequences of the existence of a one-parameter group of conformal motions for anisotropic matter. They concluded that for special conformal motions, the stiff equation of state (p = μ) is singled out in a unique way, provided the generating conformal vector field is orthogonal to the four-velocity. In this paper, the same problem is studied by using conformal collineations (which include conformal motions as subgroups). It is shown that, for a special conformal collineation, the stiff equation of state is not singled out. Non-Einstein Ricci-recurrent spaces are considered as physical models for the fluid matter

Ensembl 2002: accommodating comparative genomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Clamp, M; Andrews, D; Barker, D; Bevan, P; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Hubbard, T; Kasprzyk, A; Keefe, D; Lehvaslaiho, H; Iyer, V; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Birney, E

2003-01-01

The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of human, mouse and other genome sequences, available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. Ensembl also integrates manually annotated gene structures from external sources where available. As well as being one of the leading sources of genome annotation, Ensembl is an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements. These range from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation and installations exist around the world in both companies and at academic sites. With both human and mouse genome sequences available and more vertebrate sequences to follow, many of the recent developments in Ensembl have focusing on developing automatic comparative genome analysis and visualisation.

The classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Xuanmin; Pang Shengshi; Wu Shengjun; Liu Quanhui

2011-01-01

In this Letter, we investigate the classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble. We define a quantity called ensemble classicality based on classical cloning strategy (ECCC) to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. An ensemble of commuting states has a unit ECCC, while a general ensemble can have a ECCC less than 1. We also study how quantum an ensemble is by defining a related quantity called quantumness. We find that the classicality of an ensemble is closely related to how perfectly the ensemble can be cloned, and that the quantumness of the ensemble used in a quantum key distribution (QKD) protocol is exactly the attainable lower bound of the error rate in the sifted key. - Highlights: → A quantity is defined to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. → The classicality of an ensemble is closely related to the cloning performance. → Another quantity is also defined to investigate how quantum an ensemble is. → This quantity gives the lower bound of the error rate in a QKD protocol.

A short-term ensemble wind speed forecasting system for wind power applications

Science.gov (United States)

Baidya Roy, S.; Traiteur, J. J.; Callicutt, D.; Smith, M.

2011-12-01

This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 hour ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Single Column Model (WRFSCM) and a persistence model. The ensemble is calibrated against observations for a 2 month period (June-July, 2008) at a potential wind farm site in Illinois using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique. The forecasting system is evaluated against observations for August 2008 at the same site. The calibrated ensemble forecasts significantly outperform the forecasts from the uncalibrated ensemble while significantly reducing forecast uncertainty under all environmental stability conditions. The system also generates significantly better forecasts than persistence, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models during the morning transition and the diurnal convective regimes. This forecasting system is computationally more efficient than traditional numerical weather prediction models and can generate a calibrated forecast, including model runs and calibration, in approximately 1 minute. Currently, hour-ahead wind speed forecasts are almost exclusively produced using statistical models. However, numerical models have several distinct advantages over statistical models including the potential to provide turbulence forecasts. Hence, there is an urgent need to explore the role of numerical models in short-term wind speed forecasting. This work is a step in that direction and is likely to trigger a debate within the wind speed forecasting community.

Spherical conformal models for compact stars

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takisa, P.M.; Maharaj, S.D.; Manjonjo, A.M.; Moopanar, S. [University of KwaZulu-Natal, Astrophysics and Cosmology Research Unit, School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, Durban (South Africa)

2017-10-15

We consider spherical exact models for compact stars with anisotropic pressures and a conformal symmetry. The conformal symmetry condition generates an integral relationship between the gravitational potentials. We solve this condition to find a new anisotropic solution to the Einstein field equations. We demonstrate that the exact solution produces a relativistic model of a compact star. The model generates stellar radii and masses consistent with PSR J1614-2230, Vela X1, PSR J1903+327 and Cen X-3. A detailed physical examination shows that the model is regular, well behaved and stable. The mass-radius limit and the surface red shift are consistent with observational constraints. (orig.)

Scheme for demonstrating the Bell theorem in tripartite entanglement between atomic ensembles

CERN Document Server

Zhou Xi Bin; Guo Guang Can

2003-01-01

We propose an experimentally feasible scheme to demonstrate quantum nonlocality, using Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger and W entanglement between atomic ensembles generated by a newly developed method based on laser manipulation and single-photon detection.

Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

Science.gov (United States)

O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

2017-12-01

Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

The semantic similarity ensemble

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Ballatore

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Computational measures of semantic similarity between geographic terms provide valuable support across geographic information retrieval, data mining, and information integration. To date, a wide variety of approaches to geo-semantic similarity have been devised. A judgment of similarity is not intrinsically right or wrong, but obtains a certain degree of cognitive plausibility, depending on how closely it mimics human behavior. Thus selecting the most appropriate measure for a specific task is a significant challenge. To address this issue, we make an analogy between computational similarity measures and soliciting domain expert opinions, which incorporate a subjective set of beliefs, perceptions, hypotheses, and epistemic biases. Following this analogy, we define the semantic similarity ensemble (SSE as a composition of different similarity measures, acting as a panel of experts having to reach a decision on the semantic similarity of a set of geographic terms. The approach is evaluated in comparison to human judgments, and results indicate that an SSE performs better than the average of its parts. Although the best member tends to outperform the ensemble, all ensembles outperform the average performance of each ensemble's member. Hence, in contexts where the best measure is unknown, the ensemble provides a more cognitively plausible approach.

Quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuld, Maria; Petruccione, Francesco

2018-02-09

Quantum machine learning witnesses an increasing amount of quantum algorithms for data-driven decision making, a problem with potential applications ranging from automated image recognition to medical diagnosis. Many of those algorithms are implementations of quantum classifiers, or models for the classification of data inputs with a quantum computer. Following the success of collective decision making with ensembles in classical machine learning, this paper introduces the concept of quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers. Creating the ensemble corresponds to a state preparation routine, after which the quantum classifiers are evaluated in parallel and their combined decision is accessed by a single-qubit measurement. This framework naturally allows for exponentially large ensembles in which - similar to Bayesian learning - the individual classifiers do not have to be trained. As an example, we analyse an exponentially large quantum ensemble in which each classifier is weighed according to its performance in classifying the training data, leading to new results for quantum as well as classical machine learning.

An adaptive Gaussian process-based iterative ensemble smoother for data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Ju, Lei; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Meng, Long; Wu, Laosheng; Zeng, Lingzao

2018-05-01

Accurate characterization of subsurface hydraulic conductivity is vital for modeling of subsurface flow and transport. The iterative ensemble smoother (IES) has been proposed to estimate the heterogeneous parameter field. As a Monte Carlo-based method, IES requires a relatively large ensemble size to guarantee its performance. To improve the computational efficiency, we propose an adaptive Gaussian process (GP)-based iterative ensemble smoother (GPIES) in this study. At each iteration, the GP surrogate is adaptively refined by adding a few new base points chosen from the updated parameter realizations. Then the sensitivity information between model parameters and measurements is calculated from a large number of realizations generated by the GP surrogate with virtually no computational cost. Since the original model evaluations are only required for base points, whose number is much smaller than the ensemble size, the computational cost is significantly reduced. The applicability of GPIES in estimating heterogeneous conductivity is evaluated by the saturated and unsaturated flow problems, respectively. Without sacrificing estimation accuracy, GPIES achieves about an order of magnitude of speed-up compared with the standard IES. Although subsurface flow problems are considered in this study, the proposed method can be equally applied to other hydrological models.

Analysis of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependeny

Science.gov (United States)

Reyers, Mark; Moemken, Julia; Pinto, Joaquim; Feldmann, Hendrik; Kottmeier, Christoph; MiKlip Module-C Team

2017-04-01

Decadal climate predictions can provide a useful basis for decision making support systems for the public and private sectors. Several generations of decadal hindcasts and predictions have been generated throughout the German research program MiKlip. Together with the global climate predictions computed with MPI-ESM, the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM is used for regional downscaling by MiKlip Module-C. The RCMs provide climate information on spatial and temporal scales closer to the needs of potential users. In this study, two downscaled hindcast generations are analysed (named b0 and b1). The respective global generations are both initialized by nudging them towards different reanalysis anomaly fields. An ensemble of five starting years (1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, and 2001), each comprising ten ensemble members, is used for both generations in order to quantify the regional decadal prediction skill for precipitation and near-surface temperature and wind speed over Europe. All datasets (including hindcasts, observations, reanalysis, and historical MPI-ESM runs) are pre-processed in an analogue manner by (i) removing the long-term trend and (ii) re-gridding to a common grid. Our analysis shows that there is potential for skillful decadal predictions over Europe in the regional MiKlip ensemble, but the skill is not systematic and depends on the PRUDENCE region and the variable. Further, the differences between the two hindcast generations are mostly small. As we used detrended time series, the predictive skill found in our study can probably attributed to reasonable predictions of anomalies which are associated with the natural climate variability. In a sensitivity study, it is shown that the results may strongly change when the long-term trend is kept in the datasets, as here the skill of predicting the long-term trend (e.g. for temperature) also plays a major role. The regionalization of the global ensemble provides an added value for decadal predictions for

Conformal Invariance, Dark Energy, and CMB Non-Gaussianity

CERN Document Server

Antoniadis, Ignatios; Mottola, Emil

2012-01-01

We show that in addition to simple scale invariance, a universe dominated by dark energy naturally gives rise to correlation functions possessing full conformal invariance. This is due to the mathematical isomorphism between the conformal group of certain three dimensional slices of de Sitter space and the de Sitter isometry group SO(4,1). In the standard homogeneous, isotropic cosmological model in which primordial density perturbations are generated during a long vacuum energy dominated de Sitter phase, the embedding of flat spatial R^3 sections in de Sitter space induces a conformal invariant perturbation spectrum and definite prediction for the shape of the non-Gaussian CMB bispectrum. In the case in which the density fluctuations are generated instead on the de Sitter horizon, conformal invariance of the S^2 horizon embedding implies a different but also quite definite prediction for the angular correlations of CMB non-Gaussianity on the sky. Each of these forms for the bispectrum is intrinsic to the sym...

Irregular conformal block, spectral curve and flow equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Sang Kwan; Rim, Chaiho; Zhang, Hong

2016-01-01

Irregular conformal block is motivated by the Argyres-Douglas type of N=2 super conformal gauge theory. We investigate the classical/NS limit of irregular conformal block using the spectral curve on a Riemann surface with irregular punctures, which is equivalent to the loop equation of irregular matrix model. The spectral curve is reduced to the second order (Virasoro symmetry, SU(2) for the gauge theory) and third order (W_3 symmetry, SU(3)) differential equations of a polynomial with finite degree. The conformal and W symmetry generate the flow equations in the spectral curve and determine the irregular conformal block, hence the partition function of the Argyres-Douglas theory ala AGT conjecture.

Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Dietrich

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.

Musical ensembles in Ancient Mesapotamia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krispijn, T.J.H.; Dumbrill, R.; Finkel, I.

2010-01-01

Identification of musical instruments from ancient Mesopotamia by comparing musical ensembles attested in Sumerian and Akkadian texts with depicted ensembles. Lexicographical contributions to the Sumerian and Akkadian lexicon.

Measures of trajectory ensemble disparity in nonequilibrium statistical dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crooks, Gavin E; Sivak, David A

2011-01-01

Many interesting divergence measures between conjugate ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories can be experimentally determined from the work distribution of the process. Herein, we review the statistical and physical significance of several of these measures, in particular the relative entropy (dissipation), Jeffreys divergence (hysteresis), Jensen–Shannon divergence (time-asymmetry), Chernoff divergence (work cumulant generating function), and Rényi divergence

Inversion theory and conformal mapping

CERN Document Server

Blair, David E

2000-01-01

It is rarely taught in an undergraduate or even graduate curriculum that the only conformal maps in Euclidean space of dimension greater than two are those generated by similarities and inversions in spheres. This is in stark contrast to the wealth of conformal maps in the plane. The principal aim of this text is to give a treatment of this paucity of conformal maps in higher dimensions. The exposition includes both an analytic proof in general dimension and a differential-geometric proof in dimension three. For completeness, enough complex analysis is developed to prove the abundance of conformal maps in the plane. In addition, the book develops inversion theory as a subject, along with the auxiliary theme of circle-preserving maps. A particular feature is the inclusion of a paper by Carath�odory with the remarkable result that any circle-preserving transformation is necessarily a M�bius transformation, not even the continuity of the transformation is assumed. The text is at the level of advanced undergr...

Inverse bootstrapping conformal field theories

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenliang

2018-01-01

We propose a novel approach to study conformal field theories (CFTs) in general dimensions. In the conformal bootstrap program, one usually searches for consistent CFT data that satisfy crossing symmetry. In the new method, we reverse the logic and interpret manifestly crossing-symmetric functions as generating functions of conformal data. Physical CFTs can be obtained by scanning the space of crossing-symmetric functions. By truncating the fusion rules, we are able to concentrate on the low-lying operators and derive some approximate relations for their conformal data. It turns out that the free scalar theory, the 2d minimal model CFTs, the ϕ 4 Wilson-Fisher CFT, the Lee-Yang CFTs and the Ising CFTs are consistent with the universal relations from the minimal fusion rule ϕ 1 × ϕ 1 = I + ϕ 2 + T , where ϕ 1 , ϕ 2 are scalar operators, I is the identity operator and T is the stress tensor.

PSO-Ensemble Demo Application

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2004-01-01

Within the framework of the PSO-Ensemble project (FU2101) a demo application has been created. The application use ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Two instances of the application are running; one for Nysted Offshore and one for the total production (except Horns Rev) in the Eltra area. The output...

Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

KAUST Repository

Chernov, Alexey; Hoel, Haakon; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

2016-01-01

This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

KAUST Repository

Chernov, Alexey

2016-01-06

This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

Multiresolution Computation of Conformal Structures of Surfaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xianfeng Gu

2003-10-01

Full Text Available An efficient multiresolution method to compute global conformal structures of nonzero genus triangle meshes is introduced. The homology, cohomology groups of meshes are computed explicitly, then a basis of harmonic one forms and a basis of holomorphic one forms are constructed. A progressive mesh is generated to represent the original surface at different resolutions. The conformal structure is computed for the coarse level first, then used as the estimation for that of the finer level, by using conjugate gradient method it can be refined to the conformal structure of the finer level.

Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

2015-01-01

Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

Renormalization, conformal ward identities and the origin of a conformal anomaly pole

Science.gov (United States)

Corianò, Claudio; Maglio, Matteo Maria

2018-06-01

We investigate the emergence of a conformal anomaly pole in conformal field theories in the case of the TJJ correlator. We show how it comes to be generated in dimensional renormalization, using a basis of 13 form factors (the F-basis), where only one of them requires renormalization (F13), extending previous studies. We then combine recent results on the structure of the non-perturbative solutions of the conformal Ward identities (CWI's) for the TJJ in momentum space, expressed in terms of a minimal set of 4 form factors (A-basis), with the properties of the F-basis, and show how the singular behaviour of the corresponding form factors in both basis can be related. The result proves the centrality of such massless effective interactions induced by the anomaly, which have recently found realization in solid state, in the theory of topological insulators and of Weyl semimetals. This pattern is confirmed in massless abelian and nonabelian theories (QED and QCD) investigated at one-loop.

Möbius domain-wall fermions on gradient-flowed dynamical HISQ ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Berkowitz, Evan; Bouchard, Chris; Chang, Chia Cheng; Clark, M. A.; Joó, Bálint; Kurth, Thorsten; Monahan, Christopher; Nicholson, Amy; Orginos, Kostas; Rinaldi, Enrico; Vranas, Pavlos; Walker-Loud, André

2017-09-01

We report on salient features of a mixed lattice QCD action using valence Möbius domain-wall fermions solved on the dynamical Nf=2 +1 +1 highly improved staggered quark sea-quark ensembles generated by the MILC Collaboration. The approximate chiral symmetry properties of the valence fermions are shown to be significantly improved by utilizing the gradient-flow scheme to first smear the highly improved staggered quark configurations. The greater numerical cost of the Möbius domain-wall inversions is mitigated by the highly efficient QUDA library optimized for NVIDIA GPU accelerated compute nodes. We have created an interface to this optimized QUDA solver in Chroma. We provide tuned parameters of the action and performance of QUDA using ensembles with the lattice spacings a ≃{0.15 ,0.12 ,0.09 } fm and pion masses mπ≃{310 ,220 ,130 } MeV . We have additionally generated two new ensembles with a ˜0.12 fm and mπ˜{400 ,350 } MeV . With a fixed flow time of tg f=1 in lattice units, the residual chiral symmetry breaking of the valence fermions is kept below 10% of the light quark mass on all ensembles, mres≲0.1 ×ml , with moderate values of the fifth dimension L5 and a domain-wall height M5≤1.3 . As a benchmark calculation, we perform a continuum, infinite volume, physical pion and kaon mass extrapolation of FK±/Fπ± and demonstrate our results are independent of flow time and consistent with the FLAG determination of this quantity at the level of less than one standard deviation.

Time-optimal path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

KAUST Repository

Wang, Tong

2016-01-06

An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct time-optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where a set deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty in the predictions. In the operational setting, much about dynamics, topography and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain, and as a result a single path produced by a model simulation has limited utility. To overcome this limitation, we rely on a finitesize ensemble of deterministic forecasts to quantify the impact of variability in the dynamics. The uncertainty of flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the optimal path by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of sampling strategy, and develop insight into extensions dealing with regional or general circulation models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times, and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

Ensemble-based Kalman Filters in Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zhaoxia PU; Joshua HACKER

2009-01-01

This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.

Balanced Electrostatic and Structural Forces Guide the Large Conformational Change Associated with Maturation of T = 4 Virus

Science.gov (United States)

Matsui, Tsutomu; Tsuruta, Hiro; Johnson, John E.

2010-01-01

Nudaurelia capensis omega virus has a well-characterized T = 4 capsid that undergoes a pH-dependent large conformational changes (LCC) and associated auto-catalytic cleavage of the subunit. We examined previously the particle size at different pH values and showed that maturation occurred at pH 5.5. We now characterized the LCC with time-resolved small-angle x-ray scattering and showed that there were three kinetic stages initiated with an incremental drop in pH: 1), a rapid (electrostatic and structural forces shapes the energy landscape of the LCC with the latter requiring annealing of portions of the subunit. Equilibrium experiments showed that many intermediate states could be populated with a homogeneous ensemble of particles by carefully controlling the pH. A titration curve for the LCC was generated that showed that the virtual pKa (i.e., the composite of all titratable residues that contribute to the LCC) is 5.8. PMID:20371334

Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size

Science.gov (United States)

Trenary, L.; DelSole, T.; Tippett, M. K.; Pegion, K.

2018-04-01

The mean square error (MSE) of a lagged ensemble of monthly forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is examined with respect to ensemble size and configuration. Although the real-time forecast is initialized 4 times per day, it is possible to infer the MSE for arbitrary initialization frequency and for burst ensembles by fitting error covariances to a parametric model and then extrapolating to arbitrary ensemble size and initialization frequency. Applying this method to real-time forecasts, we find that the MSE consistently reaches a minimum for a lagged ensemble size between one and eight days, when four initializations per day are included. This ensemble size is consistent with the 8-10 day lagged ensemble configuration used operationally. Interestingly, the skill of both ensemble configurations is close to the estimated skill of the infinite ensemble. The skill of the weighted, lagged, and burst ensembles are found to be comparable. Certain unphysical features of the estimated error growth were tracked down to problems with the climatology and data discontinuities.

Potential clinical efficacy of intensity-modulated conformal therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meeks, Sanford L.; Buatti, John M.; Bova, Francis J.; Friedman, William A.; Mendenhall, William M.; Zlotecki, Robert A.

1998-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the potential benefit of using intensity-modulated conformal therapy for a variety of lesions currently treated with stereotactic radiosurgery or conventional radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Intensity-modulated conformal treatment plans were generated for small intracranial lesions, as well as head and neck, lung, breast, and prostate cases, using the Peacock Plan[reg] treatment-planning system (Nomos Corporation). For small intracranial lesions, intensity-modulated conformal treatment plans were compared with stereotactic radiosurgery treatment plans generated for patient treatment at the University of Florida Shands Cancer Center. For other sites (head and neck, lung, breast, and prostate), plans generated using the Peacock Plan[reg] were compared with conventional treatment plans, as well as beam's-eye-view conformal treatment plans. Plan comparisons were accomplished through conventional qualitative review of two-dimensional (2D) dose distributions in conjunction with quantitative techniques, such as dose-volume histograms, dosimetric statistics, normal tissue complication probabilities, tumor control probabilities, and objective numerical scoring. Results: For small intracranial lesions, there is little difference between intensity-modulated conformal treatment planning and radiosurgery treatment planning in the conformation of high isodose lines with the target volume. However, stereotactic treatment planning provides a steeper dose gradient outside the target volume and, hence, a lower normal tissue toxicity index. For extracranial sites, objective numerical scores for beam's-eye-view and intensity-modulated conformal planning techniques are superior to scores for conventional treatment plans. The beam's-eye-view planning technique prevents geographic target misses and better excludes healthy tissues from the treatment portal. Compared with scores for the beam's-eye-view planning technique, scores for

HRensembleHR. High resolution ensemble for Horns Rev. Final project report. Executive summary; Offshore wind power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2010-03-15

The development of offshore wind power results in more energy production per area unit and new requirements to the generation forecasts. Measurements from Horns Rev and ensemble forecasts were used to upgrade forecasting tools for the relevant periods and time scales. The most significant development is a new algorithm for short-term forecasts that combines any relevant online measurements by means of ensemble forecasts. (ln)

Village Building Identification Based on Ensemble Convolutional Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Zhiling; Chen, Qi; Xu, Yongwei; Shibasaki, Ryosuke; Shao, Xiaowei

2017-01-01

In this study, we present the Ensemble Convolutional Neural Network (ECNN), an elaborate CNN frame formulated based on ensembling state-of-the-art CNN models, to identify village buildings from open high-resolution remote sensing (HRRS) images. First, to optimize and mine the capability of CNN for village mapping and to ensure compatibility with our classification targets, a few state-of-the-art models were carefully optimized and enhanced based on a series of rigorous analyses and evaluations. Second, rather than directly implementing building identification by using these models, we exploited most of their advantages by ensembling their feature extractor parts into a stronger model called ECNN based on the multiscale feature learning method. Finally, the generated ECNN was applied to a pixel-level classification frame to implement object identification. The proposed method can serve as a viable tool for village building identification with high accuracy and efficiency. The experimental results obtained from the test area in Savannakhet province, Laos, prove that the proposed ECNN model significantly outperforms existing methods, improving overall accuracy from 96.64% to 99.26%, and kappa from 0.57 to 0.86. PMID:29084154

The Relationship between Self-Assembly and Conformal Mappings

Science.gov (United States)

Duque, Carlos; Santangelo, Christian

The isotropic growth of a thin sheet has been used as a way to generate programmed shapes through controlled buckling. We discuss how conformal mappings, which are transformations that locally preserve angles, provide a way to quantify the area growth needed to produce a particular shape. A discrete version of the conformal map can be constructed from circle packings, which are maps between packings of circles whose contact network is preserved. This provides a link to the self-assembly of particles on curved surfaces. We performed simulations of attractive particles on a curved surface using molecular dynamics. The resulting particle configurations were used to generate the corresponding discrete conformal map, allowing us to quantify the degree of area distortion required to produce a particular shape by finding particle configurations that minimize the area distortion.

Sampling Realistic Protein Conformations Using Local Structural Bias

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hamelryck, Thomas Wim; Kent, John T.; Krogh, A.

2006-01-01

The prediction of protein structure from sequence remains a major unsolved problem in biology. The most successful protein structure prediction methods make use of a divide-and-conquer strategy to attack the problem: a conformational sampling method generates plausible candidate structures, which...... are subsequently accepted or rejected using an energy function. Conceptually, this often corresponds to separating local structural bias from the long-range interactions that stabilize the compact, native state. However, sampling protein conformations that are compatible with the local structural bias encoded...... in a given protein sequence is a long-standing open problem, especially in continuous space. We describe an elegant and mathematically rigorous method to do this, and show that it readily generates native-like protein conformations simply by enforcing compactness. Our results have far-reaching implications...

13CHD2–CEST NMR spectroscopy provides an avenue for studies of conformational exchange in high molecular weight proteins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rennella, Enrico; Huang, Rui; Velyvis, Algirdas; Kay, Lewis E.

2015-01-01

An NMR experiment for quantifying slow (millisecond) time-scale exchange processes involving the interconversion between visible ground state and invisible, conformationally excited state conformers is presented. The approach exploits chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) and makes use of 13 CHD 2 methyl group probes that can be readily incorporated into otherwise highly deuterated proteins. The methodology is validated with an application to a G48A Fyn SH3 domain that exchanges between a folded conformation and a sparsely populated and transiently formed unfolded ensemble. Experiments on a number of different protein systems, including a 360 kDa half-proteasome, establish that the sensitivity of this 13 CHD 2 13 C–CEST technique can be upwards of a factor of 5 times higher than for a previously published 13 CH 3 13 C–CEST approach (Bouvignies and Kay in J Biomol NMR 53:303–310, 2012), suggesting that the methodology will be powerful for studies of conformational exchange in high molecular weight proteins

New technique for ensemble dressing combining Multimodel SuperEnsemble and precipitation PDF

Science.gov (United States)

Cane, D.; Milelli, M.

2009-09-01

The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique (Krishnamurti et al., Science 285, 1548-1550, 1999) is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the difference between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. Although it can be applied successfully on the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure (Cane and Milelli, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 15, 2, 2006), the Multimodel SuperEnsemble gives good results also when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present our methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts applied on a wide spectrum of results over Piemonte very dense non-GTS weather station network. We will focus particularly on an accurate statistical method for bias correction and on the ensemble dressing in agreement with the observed precipitation forecast-conditioned PDF. Acknowledgement: this work is supported by the Italian Civil Defence Department.

A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events

Science.gov (United States)

Taniguchi, Kenji

2018-04-01

To investigate future variations in high-impact weather events, numerous samples are required. For the detailed assessment in a specific region, a high spatial resolution is also required. A simple ensemble simulation technique is proposed in this paper. In the proposed technique, new ensemble members were generated from one basic state vector and two perturbation vectors, which were obtained by lagged average forecasting simulations. Sensitivity experiments with different numbers of ensemble members, different simulation lengths, and different perturbation magnitudes were performed. Experimental application to a global warming study was also implemented for a typhoon event. Ensemble-mean results and ensemble spreads of total precipitation, atmospheric conditions showed similar characteristics across the sensitivity experiments. The frequencies of the maximum total and hourly precipitation also showed similar distributions. These results indicate the robustness of the proposed technique. On the other hand, considerable ensemble spread was found in each ensemble experiment. In addition, the results of the application to a global warming study showed possible variations in the future. These results indicate that the proposed technique is useful for investigating various meteorological phenomena and the impacts of global warming. The results of the ensemble simulations also enable the stochastic evaluation of differences in high-impact weather events. In addition, the impacts of a spectral nudging technique were also examined. The tracks of a typhoon were quite different between cases with and without spectral nudging; however, the ranges of the tracks among ensemble members were comparable. It indicates that spectral nudging does not necessarily suppress ensemble spread.

Characterizing highly dynamic conformational states: The transcription bubble in RNAP-promoter open complex as an example

Science.gov (United States)

Lerner, Eitan; Ingargiola, Antonino; Weiss, Shimon

2018-03-01

Bio-macromolecules carry out complicated functions through structural changes. To understand their mechanism of action, the structure of each step has to be characterized. While classical structural biology techniques allow the characterization of a few "structural snapshots" along the enzymatic cycle (usually of stable conformations), they do not cover all (and often fast interconverting) structures in the ensemble, where each may play an important functional role. Recently, several groups have demonstrated that structures of different conformations in solution could be solved by measuring multiple distances between different pairs of residues using single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) and using them as constrains for hybrid/integrative structural modeling. However, this approach is limited in cases where the conformational dynamics is faster than the technique's temporal resolution. In this study, we combine existing tools that elucidate sub-millisecond conformational dynamics together with hybrid/integrative structural modeling to study the conformational states of the transcription bubble in the bacterial RNA polymerase-promoter open complex (RPo). We measured microsecond alternating laser excitation-smFRET of differently labeled lacCONS promoter dsDNA constructs. We used a combination of burst variance analysis, photon-by-photon hidden Markov modeling, and the FRET-restrained positioning and screening approach to identify two conformational states for RPo. The experimentally derived distances of one conformational state match the known crystal structure of bacterial RPo. The experimentally derived distances of the other conformational state have characteristics of a scrunched RPo. These findings support the hypothesis that sub-millisecond dynamics in the transcription bubble are responsible for transcription start site selection.

On the use of Schwarz-Christoffel conformal mappings to the grid generation for global ocean models

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, S.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.

2015-10-01

In this article we propose two grid generation methods for global ocean general circulation models. Contrary to conventional dipolar or tripolar grids, the proposed methods are based on Schwarz-Christoffel conformal mappings that map areas with user-prescribed, irregular boundaries to those with regular boundaries (i.e., disks, slits, etc.). The first method aims at improving existing dipolar grids. Compared with existing grids, the sample grid achieves a better trade-off between the enlargement of the latitudinal-longitudinal portion and the overall smooth grid cell size transition. The second method addresses more modern and advanced grid design requirements arising from high-resolution and multi-scale ocean modeling. The generated grids could potentially achieve the alignment of grid lines to the large-scale coastlines, enhanced spatial resolution in coastal regions, and easier computational load balance. Since the grids are orthogonal curvilinear, they can be easily utilized by the majority of ocean general circulation models that are based on finite difference and require grid orthogonality. The proposed grid generation algorithms can also be applied to the grid generation for regional ocean modeling where complex land-sea distribution is present.

A user-friendly web portal for analyzing conformational changes in structures of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Sameer; Thangam, Manonanthini; Vasudevan, Praveen; Kumar, G Ramesh; Unni, Rahul; Devi, P K Gayathri; Hanna, Luke Elizabeth

2015-10-01

Initiation of the Tuberculosis Structural Consortium has resulted in the expansion of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) protein structural database. Currently, 969 experimentally solved structures are available for 354 MTB proteins. This includes multiple crystal structures for a given protein under different functional conditions, such as the presence of different ligands or mutations. In depth analysis of the multiple structures reveal that subtle differences exist in conformations of a given protein under varied conditions. Therefore, it is immensely important to understand the conformational differences between the multiple structures of a given protein in order to select the most suitable structure for molecular docking and structure-based drug designing. Here, we introduce a web portal ( http://bmi.icmr.org.in/mtbsd/torsion.php ) that we developed to provide comparative data on the ensemble of available structures of MTB proteins, such as Cα root means square deviation (RMSD), sequence identity, presence of mutations and torsion angles. Additionally, torsion angles were used to perform principal component analysis (PCA) to identify the conformational differences between the structures. Additionally, we present a few case studies to demonstrate this database. Graphical Abstract Conformational changes seen in the structures of the enoyl-ACP reductase protein encoded by the Mycobacterial gene inhA.

Composite Binary Sequences with a Large Ensemble and Zero Correlation Zone

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. S. Yudachev

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article considers a proposed class of derived signals such as composite binary sequences for application in advanced spread spectrum radio systems of various purposes, using signals based on spectrum spreading by direct sequence method. Considered composite sequences, having a representative set of lengths and unique correlation properties, compares favorably with the widely used at present large ensembles formed on a single algorithmic basis. To evaluate the properties of the composite sequences generated on the basis of two components - the Barker code and Kerdock sequences, expressions of periodic and aperiodic correlation functions are given.An algorithm for generating practical ensembles of composite sequences is presented. On the basis of the algorithm and its software implementation in C #, the samples of the sequence ensembles of various lengths were obtained and their periodic and aperiodic correlation functions and statistical characteristics were studied in detail. As an illustration, some of the most typical correlation functions are presented. The most remarkable characteristics allowing a ssessing the feasibility of using this type of sequences in the design of specific types of radio systems are considered.On the basis of the proposed program and the performed calculations the conclusions can be drawn about the possibility of using the sequences of these classes, with the aim of reducing intra-system disturbance in the projected spread spectrum CDMA.

On the v-representability of ensemble densities of electron systems

Science.gov (United States)

Gonis, A.; Däne, M.

2018-05-01

Analogously to the case at zero temperature, where the density of the ground state of an interacting many-particle system determines uniquely (within an arbitrary additive constant) the external potential acting on the system, the thermal average of the density over an ensemble defined by the Boltzmann distribution at the minimum of the thermodynamic potential, or the free energy, determines the external potential uniquely (and not just modulo a constant) acting on a system described by this thermodynamic potential or free energy. The paper describes a formal procedure that generates the domain of a constrained search over general ensembles (at zero or elevated temperatures) that lead to a given density, including as a special case a density thermally averaged at a given temperature, and in the case of a v-representable density determines the external potential leading to the ensemble density. As an immediate consequence of the general formalism, the concept of v-representability is extended beyond the hitherto discussed case of ground state densities to encompass excited states as well. Specific application to thermally averaged densities solves the v-representability problem in connection with the Mermin functional in a manner analogous to that in which this problem was recently settled with respect to the Hohenberg and Kohn functional. The main formalism is illustrated with numerical results for ensembles of one-dimensional, non-interacting systems of particles under a harmonic potential.

Conformational analysis of oligosaccharides and polysaccharides using molecular dynamics simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, Martin

2015-01-01

Complex carbohydrates usually have a large number of rotatable bonds and consequently a large number of theoretically possible conformations can be generated (combinatorial explosion). The application of systematic search methods for conformational analysis of carbohydrates is therefore limited to disaccharides and trisaccharides in a routine analysis. An alternative approach is to use Monte-Carlo methods or (high-temperature) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to explore the conformational space of complex carbohydrates. This chapter describes how to use MD simulation data to perform a conformational analysis (conformational maps, hydrogen bonds) of oligosaccharides and how to build realistic 3D structures of large polysaccharides using Conformational Analysis Tools (CAT).

Atomistic structural ensemble refinement reveals non-native structure stabilizes a sub-millisecond folding intermediate of CheY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi, Jade; Schwantes, Christian; Bilsel, Osman

2017-01-01

The dynamics of globular proteins can be described in terms of transitions between a folded native state and less-populated intermediates, or excited states, which can play critical roles in both protein folding and function. Excited states are by definition transient species, and therefore are difficult to characterize using current experimental techniques. We report an atomistic model of the excited state ensemble of a stabilized mutant of an extensively studied flavodoxin fold protein CheY. We employed a hybrid simulation and experimental approach in which an aggregate 42 milliseconds of all-atom molecular dynamics were used as an informative prior for the structure of the excited state ensemble. The resulting prior was then refined against small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) data employing an established method (EROS). The most striking feature of the resulting excited state ensemble was an unstructured N-terminus stabilized by non-native contacts in a conformation that is topologically simpler than the native state. We then predict incisive single molecule FRET experiments, using these results, as a means of model validation. Our study demonstrates the paradigm of uniting simulation and experiment in a statistical model to study the structure of protein excited states and rationally design validating experiments.

Managing uncertainty in metabolic network structure and improving predictions using EnsembleFBA.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew B Biggs

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions (GENREs are repositories of knowledge about the metabolic processes that occur in an organism. GENREs have been used to discover and interpret metabolic functions, and to engineer novel network structures. A major barrier preventing more widespread use of GENREs, particularly to study non-model organisms, is the extensive time required to produce a high-quality GENRE. Many automated approaches have been developed which reduce this time requirement, but automatically-reconstructed draft GENREs still require curation before useful predictions can be made. We present a novel approach to the analysis of GENREs which improves the predictive capabilities of draft GENREs by representing many alternative network structures, all equally consistent with available data, and generating predictions from this ensemble. This ensemble approach is compatible with many reconstruction methods. We refer to this new approach as Ensemble Flux Balance Analysis (EnsembleFBA. We validate EnsembleFBA by predicting growth and gene essentiality in the model organism Pseudomonas aeruginosa UCBPP-PA14. We demonstrate how EnsembleFBA can be included in a systems biology workflow by predicting essential genes in six Streptococcus species and mapping the essential genes to small molecule ligands from DrugBank. We found that some metabolic subsystems contributed disproportionately to the set of predicted essential reactions in a way that was unique to each Streptococcus species, leading to species-specific outcomes from small molecule interactions. Through our analyses of P. aeruginosa and six Streptococci, we show that ensembles increase the quality of predictions without drastically increasing reconstruction time, thus making GENRE approaches more practical for applications which require predictions for many non-model organisms. All of our functions and accompanying example code are available in an open online repository.

Monte Carlo Molecular Simulation with Isobaric-Isothermal and Gibbs-NPT Ensembles

KAUST Repository

Du, Shouhong

2012-01-01

This thesis presents Monte Carlo methods for simulations of phase behaviors of Lennard-Jones fluids. The isobaric-isothermal (NPT) ensemble and Gibbs-NPT ensemble are introduced in detail. NPT ensemble is employed to determine the phase diagram of pure component. The reduced simulation results are verified by comparison with the equation of state by by Johnson et al. and results with L-J parameters of methane agree considerably with the experiment measurements. We adopt the blocking method for variance estimation and error analysis of the simulation results. The relationship between variance and number of Monte Carlo cycles, error propagation and Random Number Generator performance are also investigated. We review the Gibbs-NPT ensemble employed for phase equilibrium of binary mixture. The phase equilibrium is achieved by performing three types of trial move: particle displacement, volume rearrangement and particle transfer. The simulation models and the simulation details are introduced. The simulation results of phase coexistence for methane and ethane are reported with comparison of the experimental data. Good agreement is found for a wide range of pressures. The contribution of this thesis work lies in the study of the error analysis with respect to the Monte Carlo cycles and number of particles in some interesting aspects.

Monte Carlo Molecular Simulation with Isobaric-Isothermal and Gibbs-NPT Ensembles

KAUST Repository

Du, Shouhong

2012-05-01

This thesis presents Monte Carlo methods for simulations of phase behaviors of Lennard-Jones fluids. The isobaric-isothermal (NPT) ensemble and Gibbs-NPT ensemble are introduced in detail. NPT ensemble is employed to determine the phase diagram of pure component. The reduced simulation results are verified by comparison with the equation of state by by Johnson et al. and results with L-J parameters of methane agree considerably with the experiment measurements. We adopt the blocking method for variance estimation and error analysis of the simulation results. The relationship between variance and number of Monte Carlo cycles, error propagation and Random Number Generator performance are also investigated. We review the Gibbs-NPT ensemble employed for phase equilibrium of binary mixture. The phase equilibrium is achieved by performing three types of trial move: particle displacement, volume rearrangement and particle transfer. The simulation models and the simulation details are introduced. The simulation results of phase coexistence for methane and ethane are reported with comparison of the experimental data. Good agreement is found for a wide range of pressures. The contribution of this thesis work lies in the study of the error analysis with respect to the Monte Carlo cycles and number of particles in some interesting aspects.

Automated ensemble assembly and validation of microbial genomes

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background The continued democratization of DNA sequencing has sparked a new wave of development of genome assembly and assembly validation methods. As individual research labs, rather than centralized centers, begin to sequence the majority of new genomes, it is important to establish best practices for genome assembly. However, recent evaluations such as GAGE and the Assemblathon have concluded that there is no single best approach to genome assembly. Instead, it is preferable to generate multiple assemblies and validate them to determine which is most useful for the desired analysis; this is a labor-intensive process that is often impossible or unfeasible. Results To encourage best practices supported by the community, we present iMetAMOS, an automated ensemble assembly pipeline; iMetAMOS encapsulates the process of running, validating, and selecting a single assembly from multiple assemblies. iMetAMOS packages several leading open-source tools into a single binary that automates parameter selection and execution of multiple assemblers, scores the resulting assemblies based on multiple validation metrics, and annotates the assemblies for genes and contaminants. We demonstrate the utility of the ensemble process on 225 previously unassembled Mycobacterium tuberculosis genomes as well as a Rhodobacter sphaeroides benchmark dataset. On these real data, iMetAMOS reliably produces validated assemblies and identifies potential contamination without user intervention. In addition, intelligent parameter selection produces assemblies of R. sphaeroides comparable to or exceeding the quality of those from the GAGE-B evaluation, affecting the relative ranking of some assemblers. Conclusions Ensemble assembly with iMetAMOS provides users with multiple, validated assemblies for each genome. Although computationally limited to small or mid-sized genomes, this approach is the most effective and reproducible means for generating high-quality assemblies and enables users to

D=2 and D=4 realization of κ-conformal algebra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klimek, M.

1996-01-01

The generators of κ-conformal transformations leaving the κ-deformed d'Alembert equation invariant are described. The algebraic structure of the conformal extension of the off-shell spin zero realization of κ-Poincare algebra is discussed for D=4. The D=2 off-shell realization of κ-conformal algebra for an arbitrary spin and its commutation relations were studied. 14 refs

Conformal field theory in conformal space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preitschopf, C.R.; Vasiliev, M.A.

1999-01-01

We present a new framework for a Lagrangian description of conformal field theories in various dimensions based on a local version of d + 2-dimensional conformal space. The results include a true gauge theory of conformal gravity in d = (1, 3) and any standard matter coupled to it. An important feature is the automatic derivation of the conformal gravity constraints, which are necessary for the analysis of the matter systems

A Theoretical Analysis of Why Hybrid Ensembles Work

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Kuo-Wei Hsu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Inspired by the group decision making process, ensembles or combinations of classifiers have been found favorable in a wide variety of application domains. Some researchers propose to use the mixture of two different types of classification algorithms to create a hybrid ensemble. Why does such an ensemble work? The question remains. Following the concept of diversity, which is one of the fundamental elements of the success of ensembles, we conduct a theoretical analysis of why hybrid ensembles work, connecting using different algorithms to accuracy gain. We also conduct experiments on classification performance of hybrid ensembles of classifiers created by decision tree and naïve Bayes classification algorithms, each of which is a top data mining algorithm and often used to create non-hybrid ensembles. Therefore, through this paper, we provide a complement to the theoretical foundation of creating and using hybrid ensembles.

Statistical hadronization and hadronic micro-canonical ensemble II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becattini, F.; Ferroni, L.

2004-01-01

We present a Monte Carlo calculation of the micro-canonical ensemble of the ideal hadron-resonance gas including all known states up to a mass of about 1.8 GeV and full quantum statistics. The micro-canonical average multiplicities of the various hadron species are found to converge to the canonical ones for moderately low values of the total energy, around 8 GeV, thus bearing out previous analyses of hadronic multiplicities in the canonical ensemble. The main numerical computing method is an importance sampling Monte Carlo algorithm using the product of Poisson distributions to generate multi-hadronic channels. It is shown that the use of this multi-Poisson distribution allows for an efficient and fast computation of averages, which can be further improved in the limit of very large clusters. We have also studied the fitness of a previously proposed computing method, based on the Metropolis Monte Carlo algorithm, for event generation in the statistical hadronization model. We find that the use of the multi-Poisson distribution as proposal matrix dramatically improves the computation performance. However, due to the correlation of subsequent samples, this method proves to be generally less robust and effective than the importance sampling method. (orig.)

Generic Learning-Based Ensemble Framework for Small Sample Size Face Recognition in Multi-Camera Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Cuicui; Liang, Xuefeng; Matsuyama, Takashi

2014-12-08

Multi-camera networks have gained great interest in video-based surveillance systems for security monitoring, access control, etc. Person re-identification is an essential and challenging task in multi-camera networks, which aims to determine if a given individual has already appeared over the camera network. Individual recognition often uses faces as a trial and requires a large number of samples during the training phrase. This is difficult to fulfill due to the limitation of the camera hardware system and the unconstrained image capturing conditions. Conventional face recognition algorithms often encounter the "small sample size" (SSS) problem arising from the small number of training samples compared to the high dimensionality of the sample space. To overcome this problem, interest in the combination of multiple base classifiers has sparked research efforts in ensemble methods. However, existing ensemble methods still open two questions: (1) how to define diverse base classifiers from the small data; (2) how to avoid the diversity/accuracy dilemma occurring during ensemble. To address these problems, this paper proposes a novel generic learning-based ensemble framework, which augments the small data by generating new samples based on a generic distribution and introduces a tailored 0-1 knapsack algorithm to alleviate the diversity/accuracy dilemma. More diverse base classifiers can be generated from the expanded face space, and more appropriate base classifiers are selected for ensemble. Extensive experimental results on four benchmarks demonstrate the higher ability of our system to cope with the SSS problem compared to the state-of-the-art system.

Generic Learning-Based Ensemble Framework for Small Sample Size Face Recognition in Multi-Camera Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cuicui Zhang

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Multi-camera networks have gained great interest in video-based surveillance systems for security monitoring, access control, etc. Person re-identification is an essential and challenging task in multi-camera networks, which aims to determine if a given individual has already appeared over the camera network. Individual recognition often uses faces as a trial and requires a large number of samples during the training phrase. This is difficult to fulfill due to the limitation of the camera hardware system and the unconstrained image capturing conditions. Conventional face recognition algorithms often encounter the “small sample size” (SSS problem arising from the small number of training samples compared to the high dimensionality of the sample space. To overcome this problem, interest in the combination of multiple base classifiers has sparked research efforts in ensemble methods. However, existing ensemble methods still open two questions: (1 how to define diverse base classifiers from the small data; (2 how to avoid the diversity/accuracy dilemma occurring during ensemble. To address these problems, this paper proposes a novel generic learning-based ensemble framework, which augments the small data by generating new samples based on a generic distribution and introduces a tailored 0–1 knapsack algorithm to alleviate the diversity/accuracy dilemma. More diverse base classifiers can be generated from the expanded face space, and more appropriate base classifiers are selected for ensemble. Extensive experimental results on four benchmarks demonstrate the higher ability of our system to cope with the SSS problem compared to the state-of-the-art system.

On functional representations of the conformal algebra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosten, Oliver J.

2017-07-15

Starting with conformally covariant correlation functions, a sequence of functional representations of the conformal algebra is constructed. A key step is the introduction of representations which involve an auxiliary functional. It is observed that these functionals are not arbitrary but rather must satisfy a pair of consistency equations corresponding to dilatation and special conformal invariance. In a particular representation, the former corresponds to the canonical form of the exact renormalization group equation specialized to a fixed point whereas the latter is new. This provides a concrete understanding of how conformal invariance is realized as a property of the Wilsonian effective action and the relationship to action-free formulations of conformal field theory. Subsequently, it is argued that the conformal Ward Identities serve to define a particular representation of the energy-momentum tensor. Consistency of this construction implies Polchinski's conditions for improving the energy-momentum tensor of a conformal field theory such that it is traceless. In the Wilsonian approach, the exactly marginal, redundant field which generates lines of physically equivalent fixed points is identified as the trace of the energy-momentum tensor. (orig.)

Effect of land model ensemble versus coupled model ensemble on the simulation of precipitation climatology and variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan

2017-10-01

Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.

Ensembles generated from crystal structures of single distant homologues solve challenging molecular-replacement cases in AMPLE.

Science.gov (United States)

Rigden, Daniel J; Thomas, Jens M H; Simkovic, Felix; Simpkin, Adam; Winn, Martyn D; Mayans, Olga; Keegan, Ronan M

2018-03-01

Molecular replacement (MR) is the predominant route to solution of the phase problem in macromolecular crystallography. Although routine in many cases, it becomes more effortful and often impossible when the available experimental structures typically used as search models are only distantly homologous to the target. Nevertheless, with current powerful MR software, relatively small core structures shared between the target and known structure, of 20-40% of the overall structure for example, can succeed as search models where they can be isolated. Manual sculpting of such small structural cores is rarely attempted and is dependent on the crystallographer's expertise and understanding of the protein family in question. Automated search-model editing has previously been performed on the basis of sequence alignment, in order to eliminate, for example, side chains or loops that are not present in the target, or on the basis of structural features (e.g. solvent accessibility) or crystallographic parameters (e.g. B factors). Here, based on recent work demonstrating a correlation between evolutionary conservation and protein rigidity/packing, novel automated ways to derive edited search models from a given distant homologue over a range of sizes are presented. A variety of structure-based metrics, many readily obtained from online webservers, can be fed to the MR pipeline AMPLE to produce search models that succeed with a set of test cases where expertly manually edited comparators, further processed in diverse ways with MrBUMP, fail. Further significant performance gains result when the structure-based distance geometry method CONCOORD is used to generate ensembles from the distant homologue. To our knowledge, this is the first such approach whereby a single structure is meaningfully transformed into an ensemble for the purposes of MR. Additional cases further demonstrate the advantages of the approach. CONCOORD is freely available and computationally inexpensive, so

q-Virasoro algebra, q-conformal dimensions and free q-superstring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaichian, M.

1996-01-01

The commutators of standard Virasoro generators and fields generate various representations of the centreless Virasoro algebra depending on a conformal dimension J of the field in question (J is related to the Bargmann index of SU(1,1) generated by L m , m=0,±1). We introduce the notion of q-conformal dimension for various oscillator realizations of q-deformed Virasoro (super)algebras proposed earlier. We use the field theoretical approach introduced recently in which the q-Virasoro currents L α (z) are expressed as Schwinger-like point-split normally ordered quadratic expressions in elementary fields. We extend this approach and probe the elementary fields A(z) (the q-superstring coordinate, momentum and fermionic field) and their powers by the q-Virasoro generators L α m (i.e. we calculate the commutators [L α m ,A(z)]) and show that to all of them can be assigned just the standard non-deformed conformal dimension. (orig.)

Online cross-validation-based ensemble learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Benkeser, David; Ju, Cheng; Lendle, Sam; van der Laan, Mark

2018-01-30

Online estimators update a current estimate with a new incoming batch of data without having to revisit past data thereby providing streaming estimates that are scalable to big data. We develop flexible, ensemble-based online estimators of an infinite-dimensional target parameter, such as a regression function, in the setting where data are generated sequentially by a common conditional data distribution given summary measures of the past. This setting encompasses a wide range of time-series models and, as special case, models for independent and identically distributed data. Our estimator considers a large library of candidate online estimators and uses online cross-validation to identify the algorithm with the best performance. We show that by basing estimates on the cross-validation-selected algorithm, we are asymptotically guaranteed to perform as well as the true, unknown best-performing algorithm. We provide extensions of this approach including online estimation of the optimal ensemble of candidate online estimators. We illustrate excellent performance of our methods using simulations and a real data example where we make streaming predictions of infectious disease incidence using data from a large database. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting

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F. Anctil

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Hydrological forecasting consists in the assessment of future streamflow. Current deterministic forecasts do not give any information concerning the uncertainty, which might be limiting in a decision-making process. Ensemble forecasts are expected to fill this gap.

In July 2007, the Meteorological Service of Canada has improved its ensemble prediction system, which has been operational since 1998. It uses the GEM model to generate a 20-member ensemble on a 100 km grid, at mid-latitudes. This improved system is used for the first time for hydrological ensemble predictions. Five watersheds in Quebec (Canada are studied: Chaudière, Châteauguay, Du Nord, Kénogami and Du Lièvre. An interesting 17-day rainfall event has been selected in October 2007. Forecasts are produced in a 3 h time step for a 3-day forecast horizon. The deterministic forecast is also available and it is compared with the ensemble ones. In order to correct the bias of the ensemble, an updating procedure has been applied to the output data. Results showed that ensemble forecasts are more skilful than the deterministic ones, as measured by the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS, especially for 72 h forecasts. However, the hydrological ensemble forecasts are under dispersed: a situation that improves with the increasing length of the prediction horizons. We conjecture that this is due in part to the fact that uncertainty in the initial conditions of the hydrological model is not taken into account.

New concept of statistical ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorenstein, M.I.

2009-01-01

An extension of the standard concept of the statistical ensembles is suggested. Namely, the statistical ensembles with extensive quantities fluctuating according to an externally given distribution is introduced. Applications in the statistical models of multiple hadron production in high energy physics are discussed.

A class of energy-based ensembles in Tsallis statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chandrashekar, R; Naina Mohammed, S S

2011-01-01

A comprehensive investigation is carried out on the class of energy-based ensembles. The eight ensembles are divided into two main classes. In the isothermal class of ensembles the individual members are at the same temperature. A unified framework is evolved to describe the four isothermal ensembles using the currently accepted third constraint formalism. The isothermal–isobaric, grand canonical and generalized ensembles are illustrated through a study of the classical nonrelativistic and extreme relativistic ideal gas models. An exact calculation is possible only in the case of the isothermal–isobaric ensemble. The study of the ideal gas models in the grand canonical and the generalized ensembles has been carried out using a perturbative procedure with the nonextensivity parameter (1 − q) as the expansion parameter. Though all the thermodynamic quantities have been computed up to a particular order in (1 − q) the procedure can be extended up to any arbitrary order in the expansion parameter. In the adiabatic class of ensembles the individual members of the ensemble have the same value of the heat function and a unified formulation to described all four ensembles is given. The nonrelativistic and the extreme relativistic ideal gases are studied in the isoenthalpic–isobaric ensemble, the adiabatic ensemble with number fluctuations and the adiabatic ensemble with number and particle fluctuations

Aβ monomers transiently sample oligomer and fibril-like configurations: ensemble characterization using a combined MD/NMR approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenman, David J; Connors, Christopher R; Chen, Wen; Wang, Chunyu; García, Angel E

2013-09-23

Amyloid β (Aβ) peptides are a primary component of fibrils and oligomers implicated in the etiology of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the intrinsic flexibility of these peptides has frustrated efforts to investigate the secondary and tertiary structure of Aβ monomers, whose conformational landscapes directly contribute to the kinetics and thermodynamics of Aβ aggregation. In this work, de novo replica exchange molecular dynamics (REMD) simulations on the microseconds-per-replica timescale are used to characterize the structural ensembles of Aβ42, Aβ40, and M35-oxidized Aβ42, three physiologically relevant isoforms with substantially different aggregation properties. J-coupling data calculated from the REMD trajectories were compared to corresponding NMR-derived values acquired through two different pulse sequences, revealing that all simulations converge on the order of hundreds of nanoseconds-per-replica toward ensembles that yield good agreement with experiment. Though all three Aβ species adopt highly heterogeneous ensembles, these are considerably more structured compared to simulations on shorter timescales. Prominent in the C-terminus are antiparallel β-hairpins between L17-A21, A30-L36, and V39-I41, similar to oligomer and fibril intrapeptide models that expose these hydrophobic side chains to solvent and may serve as hotspots for self-association. Compared to reduced Aβ42, the absence of a second β-hairpin in Aβ40 and the sampling of alternate β topologies by M35-oxidized Aβ42 may explain the reduced aggregation rates of these forms. A persistent V24-K28 bend motif, observed in all three species, is stabilized by buried backbone to side-chain hydrogen bonds with D23 and a cross-region salt bridge between E22 and K28, highlighting the role of the familial AD-linked E22 and D23 residues in Aβ monomer folding. These characterizations help illustrate the conformational landscapes of Aβ monomers at atomic resolution and provide insight into

The Ensembl genome database project.

Science.gov (United States)

Hubbard, T; Barker, D; Birney, E; Cameron, G; Chen, Y; Clark, L; Cox, T; Cuff, J; Curwen, V; Down, T; Durbin, R; Eyras, E; Gilbert, J; Hammond, M; Huminiecki, L; Kasprzyk, A; Lehvaslaiho, H; Lijnzaad, P; Melsopp, C; Mongin, E; Pettett, R; Pocock, M; Potter, S; Rust, A; Schmidt, E; Searle, S; Slater, G; Smith, J; Spooner, W; Stabenau, A; Stalker, J; Stupka, E; Ureta-Vidal, A; Vastrik, I; Clamp, M

2002-01-01

The Ensembl (http://www.ensembl.org/) database project provides a bioinformatics framework to organise biology around the sequences of large genomes. It is a comprehensive source of stable automatic annotation of the human genome sequence, with confirmed gene predictions that have been integrated with external data sources, and is available as either an interactive web site or as flat files. It is also an open source software engineering project to develop a portable system able to handle very large genomes and associated requirements from sequence analysis to data storage and visualisation. The Ensembl site is one of the leading sources of human genome sequence annotation and provided much of the analysis for publication by the international human genome project of the draft genome. The Ensembl system is being installed around the world in both companies and academic sites on machines ranging from supercomputers to laptops.

A method to encapsulate model structural uncertainty in ensemble projections of future climate: EPIC v1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Jared; Bodeker, Greg E.; Kremser, Stefanie; Tait, Andrew

2017-12-01

A method, based on climate pattern scaling, has been developed to expand a small number of projections of fields of a selected climate variable (X) into an ensemble that encapsulates a wide range of indicative model structural uncertainties. The method described in this paper is referred to as the Ensemble Projections Incorporating Climate model uncertainty (EPIC) method. Each ensemble member is constructed by adding contributions from (1) a climatology derived from observations that represents the time-invariant part of the signal; (2) a contribution from forced changes in X, where those changes can be statistically related to changes in global mean surface temperature (Tglobal); and (3) a contribution from unforced variability that is generated by a stochastic weather generator. The patterns of unforced variability are also allowed to respond to changes in Tglobal. The statistical relationships between changes in X (and its patterns of variability) and Tglobal are obtained in a training phase. Then, in an implementation phase, 190 simulations of Tglobal are generated using a simple climate model tuned to emulate 19 different global climate models (GCMs) and 10 different carbon cycle models. Using the generated Tglobal time series and the correlation between the forced changes in X and Tglobal, obtained in the training phase, the forced change in the X field can be generated many times using Monte Carlo analysis. A stochastic weather generator is used to generate realistic representations of weather which include spatial coherence. Because GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs) are less likely to correctly represent unforced variability compared to observations, the stochastic weather generator takes as input measures of variability derived from observations, but also responds to forced changes in climate in a way that is consistent with the RCM projections. This approach to generating a large ensemble of projections is many orders of magnitude more

An in vitro tag-and-modify protein sample generation method for single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamadani, Kambiz M; Howe, Jesse; Jensen, Madeleine K; Wu, Peng; Cate, Jamie H D; Marqusee, Susan

2017-09-22

Biomolecular systems exhibit many dynamic and biologically relevant properties, such as conformational fluctuations, multistep catalysis, transient interactions, folding, and allosteric structural transitions. These properties are challenging to detect and engineer using standard ensemble-based techniques. To address this drawback, single-molecule methods offer a way to access conformational distributions, transient states, and asynchronous dynamics inaccessible to these standard techniques. Fluorescence-based single-molecule approaches are parallelizable and compatible with multiplexed detection; to date, however, they have remained limited to serial screens of small protein libraries. This stems from the current absence of methods for generating either individual dual-labeled protein samples at high throughputs or protein libraries compatible with multiplexed screening platforms. Here, we demonstrate that by combining purified and reconstituted in vitro translation, quantitative unnatural amino acid incorporation via AUG codon reassignment, and copper-catalyzed azide-alkyne cycloaddition, we can overcome these challenges for target proteins that are, or can be, methionine-depleted. We present an in vitro parallelizable approach that does not require laborious target-specific purification to generate dual-labeled proteins and ribosome-nascent chain libraries suitable for single-molecule FRET-based conformational phenotyping. We demonstrate the power of this approach by tracking the effects of mutations, C-terminal extensions, and ribosomal tethering on the structure and stability of three protein model systems: barnase, spectrin, and T4 lysozyme. Importantly, dual-labeled ribosome-nascent chain libraries enable single-molecule co-localization of genotypes with phenotypes, are well suited for multiplexed single-molecule screening of protein libraries, and should enable the in vitro directed evolution of proteins with designer single-molecule conformational

Generation of triangulated random surfaces by the Monte Carlo method in the grand canonical ensemble

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zmushko, V.V.; Migdal, A.A.

1987-01-01

A model of triangulated random surfaces which is the discrete analog of the Polyakov string is considered. An algorithm is proposed which enables one to study the model by the Monte Carlo method in the grand canonical ensemble. Preliminary results on the determination of the critical index γ are presented

Rotationally invariant family of Levy-like random matrix ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Jinmyung; Muttalib, K A

2009-01-01

We introduce a family of rotationally invariant random matrix ensembles characterized by a parameter λ. While λ = 1 corresponds to well-known critical ensembles, we show that λ ≠ 1 describes 'Levy-like' ensembles, characterized by power-law eigenvalue densities. For λ > 1 the density is bounded, as in Gaussian ensembles, but λ < 1 describes ensembles characterized by densities with long tails. In particular, the model allows us to evaluate, in terms of a novel family of orthogonal polynomials, the eigenvalue correlations for Levy-like ensembles. These correlations differ qualitatively from those in either the Gaussian or the critical ensembles. (fast track communication)

Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, Brendan; Levy, Maayan; Dechery, Joseph B; MacLean, Jason N

2018-01-01

A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches.

Diversity in random subspacing ensembles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tsymbal, A.; Pechenizkiy, M.; Cunningham, P.; Kambayashi, Y.; Mohania, M.K.; Wöß, W.

2004-01-01

Ensembles of learnt models constitute one of the main current directions in machine learning and data mining. It was shown experimentally and theoretically that in order for an ensemble to be effective, it should consist of classifiers having diversity in their predictions. A number of ways are

Squeezing of Collective Excitations in Spin Ensembles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kraglund Andersen, Christian; Mølmer, Klaus

2012-01-01

We analyse the possibility to create two-mode spin squeezed states of two separate spin ensembles by inverting the spins in one ensemble and allowing spin exchange between the ensembles via a near resonant cavity field. We investigate the dynamics of the system using a combination of numerical an...

AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning.

Science.gov (United States)

LeDell, Erin; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya

2016-05-01

Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where ranking correctness is valued or if the outcome is rare. In a Super Learner ensemble, maximization of the AUC can be achieved by the use of an AUC-maximining metalearning algorithm. We discuss an implementation of an AUC-maximization technique that is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. We also evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of different nonlinear optimization algorithms to maximize the cross-validated AUC of the ensemble fit. The results provide evidence that AUC-maximizing metalearners can, and often do, out-perform non-AUC-maximizing metalearning methods, with respect to ensemble AUC. The results also demonstrate that as the level of imbalance in the training data increases, the Super Learner ensemble outperforms the top base algorithm by a larger degree.

Optimized expanded ensembles for simulations involving molecular insertions and deletions. II. Open systems

Science.gov (United States)

Escobedo, Fernando A.

2007-11-01

In the Grand Canonical, osmotic, and Gibbs ensembles, chemical potential equilibrium is attained via transfers of molecules between the system and either a reservoir or another subsystem. In this work, the expanded ensemble (EXE) methods described in part I [F. A. Escobedo and F. J. Martínez-Veracoechea, J. Chem. Phys. 127, 174103 (2007)] of this series are extended to these ensembles to overcome the difficulties associated with implementing such whole-molecule transfers. In EXE, such moves occur via a target molecule that undergoes transitions through a number of intermediate coupling states. To minimize the tunneling time between the fully coupled and fully decoupled states, the intermediate states could be either: (i) sampled with an optimal frequency distribution (the sampling problem) or (ii) selected with an optimal spacing distribution (staging problem). The sampling issue is addressed by determining the biasing weights that would allow generating an optimal ensemble; discretized versions of this algorithm (well suited for small number of coupling stages) are also presented. The staging problem is addressed by selecting the intermediate stages in such a way that a flat histogram is the optimized ensemble. The validity of the advocated methods is demonstrated by their application to two model problems, the solvation of large hard spheres into a fluid of small and large spheres, and the vapor-liquid equilibrium of a chain system.

Effects of force fields on the conformational and dynamic properties of amyloid β(1-40) dimer explored by replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Watts, Charles R; Gregory, Andrew; Frisbie, Cole; Lovas, Sándor

2018-03-01

The conformational space and structural ensembles of amyloid beta (Aβ) peptides and their oligomers in solution are inherently disordered and proven to be challenging to study. Optimum force field selection for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and the biophysical relevance of results are still unknown. We compared the conformational space of the Aβ(1-40) dimers by 300 ns replica exchange MD simulations at physiological temperature (310 K) using: the AMBER-ff99sb-ILDN, AMBER-ff99sb*-ILDN, AMBER-ff99sb-NMR, and CHARMM22* force fields. Statistical comparisons of simulation results to experimental data and previously published simulations utilizing the CHARMM22* and CHARMM36 force fields were performed. All force fields yield sampled ensembles of conformations with collision cross sectional areas for the dimer that are statistically significantly larger than experimental results. All force fields, with the exception of AMBER-ff99sb-ILDN (8.8 ± 6.4%) and CHARMM36 (2.7 ± 4.2%), tend to overestimate the α-helical content compared to experimental CD (5.3 ± 5.2%). Using the AMBER-ff99sb-NMR force field resulted in the greatest degree of variance (41.3 ± 12.9%). Except for the AMBER-ff99sb-NMR force field, the others tended to under estimate the expected amount of β-sheet and over estimate the amount of turn/bend/random coil conformations. All force fields, with the exception AMBER-ff99sb-NMR, reproduce a theoretically expected β-sheet-turn-β-sheet conformational motif, however, only the CHARMM22* and CHARMM36 force fields yield results compatible with collapse of the central and C-terminal hydrophobic cores from residues 17-21 and 30-36. Although analyses of essential subspace sampling showed only minor variations between force fields, secondary structures of lowest energy conformers are different. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Switching Between the NVT and NpT Ensembles Using the Reweighting and Reconstruction Scheme

KAUST Repository

Kadoura, Ahmad Salim

2015-06-01

Recently, we have developed several techniques in order to accelerate Monte Carlo (MC) molecular simulations. For that purpose, two strategies were followed. In the first, new algorithms were proposed as a set of early rejection schemes performing faster than the conventional algorithm while preserving the accuracy of the method. On the other hand, a reweighting and reconstruction scheme was introduced that is capable of retrieving primary quantities and second derivative properties at several thermodynamic conditions from a single MC Markov chain. The latter scheme, was first developed to extrapolate quantities in NV T ensemble for struc- tureless Lennard-Jones particles. However, it is evident that for most real life applications the NpT ensemble is more convenient, as pressure and temperature are usually known. Therefore, in this paper we present an extension to the reweighting and reconstruction method to solve NpT problems utilizing the same Markov chains generated by the NV T ensemble simulations. Eventually, the new approach allows elegant switching between the two ensembles for several quantities at a wide range of neighboring thermodynamic conditions.

Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

KAUST Repository

Hoel, Haakon

2016-01-08

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

KAUST Repository

Hoel, Haakon; Chernov, Alexey; Law, Kody; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

2016-01-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

Improving the accuracy of flood forecasting with transpositions of ensemble NWP rainfall fields considering orographic effects

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Wansik; Nakakita, Eiichi; Kim, Sunmin; Yamaguchi, Kosei

2016-08-01

The use of meteorological ensembles to produce sets of hydrological predictions increased the capability to issue flood warnings. However, space scale of the hydrological domain is still much finer than meteorological model, and NWP models have challenges with displacement. The main objective of this study to enhance the transposition method proposed in Yu et al. (2014) and to suggest the post-processing ensemble flood forecasting method for the real-time updating and the accuracy improvement of flood forecasts that considers the separation of the orographic rainfall and the correction of misplaced rain distributions using additional ensemble information through the transposition of rain distributions. In the first step of the proposed method, ensemble forecast rainfalls from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are separated into orographic and non-orographic rainfall fields using atmospheric variables and the extraction of topographic effect. Then the non-orographic rainfall fields are examined by the transposition scheme to produce additional ensemble information and new ensemble NWP rainfall fields are calculated by recombining the transposition results of non-orographic rain fields with separated orographic rainfall fields for a generation of place-corrected ensemble information. Then, the additional ensemble information is applied into a hydrologic model for post-flood forecasting with a 6-h interval. The newly proposed method has a clear advantage to improve the accuracy of mean value of ensemble flood forecasting. Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon 'Talas' of 2011 over the two catchments, which are Futatsuno (356.1 km2) and Nanairo (182.1 km2) dam catchments of Shingu river basin (2360 km2), which is located in the Kii peninsula, Japan.

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

Science.gov (United States)

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-01

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

Pre- and post-processing of hydro-meteorological ensembles for the Norwegian flood forecasting system in 145 basins.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahr Hegdahl, Trine; Steinsland, Ingelin; Merete Tallaksen, Lena; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2016-04-01

(-0.6°C/100m). The streamflow ensembles are post-processed to improve sharpness and generate calibrated forecasts. The skill of combinations of pre- and post-processed hydro-meteorological ensembles are further analyzed focusing on high streamflow and floods.

Protein folding simulations by generalized-ensemble algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoda, Takao; Sugita, Yuji; Okamoto, Yuko

2014-01-01

In the protein folding problem, conventional simulations in physical statistical mechanical ensembles, such as the canonical ensemble with fixed temperature, face a great difficulty. This is because there exist a huge number of local-minimum-energy states in the system and the conventional simulations tend to get trapped in these states, giving wrong results. Generalized-ensemble algorithms are based on artificial unphysical ensembles and overcome the above difficulty by performing random walks in potential energy, volume, and other physical quantities or their corresponding conjugate parameters such as temperature, pressure, etc. The advantage of generalized-ensemble simulations lies in the fact that they not only avoid getting trapped in states of energy local minima but also allows the calculations of physical quantities as functions of temperature or other parameters from a single simulation run. In this article we review the generalized-ensemble algorithms. Four examples, multicanonical algorithm, replica-exchange method, replica-exchange multicanonical algorithm, and multicanonical replica-exchange method, are described in detail. Examples of their applications to the protein folding problem are presented.

Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brendan Chambers

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches. Mapping the routing of spikes through local circuitry is crucial for understanding neocortical computation. Under appropriate experimental conditions, these maps can be used to infer likely patterns of synaptic recruitment, linking activity to underlying anatomical connections. Such inferences help to reveal the synaptic implementation of population dynamics and computation. We compare a number of standard functional measures to infer underlying connectivity. We find that regularization impacts measures

Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Gelfan, Alexander; Moreydo, Vsevolod; Motovilov, Yury; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2018-04-01

A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April-June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Gelfan

2018-04-01

Full Text Available A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia, is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast, and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast. We have studied the following: (1 whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2 whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form outperform the operational forecasts of the April–June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

Superradiant cascade emissions in an atomic ensemble via four-wave mixing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jen, H.H., E-mail: sappyjen@gmail.com

2015-09-15

We investigate superradiant cascade emissions from an atomic ensemble driven by two-color classical fields. The correlated pair of photons (signal and idler) is generated by adiabatically driving the system with large-detuned light fields via four-wave mixing. The signal photon from the upper transition of the diamond-type atomic levels is followed by the idler one which can be superradiant due to light-induced dipole–dipole interactions. We then calculate the cooperative Lamb shift (CLS) of the idler photon, which is a cumulative effect of interaction energy. We study its dependence on a cylindrical geometry, a conventional setup in cold atom experiments, and estimate the maximum CLS which can be significant and observable. Manipulating the CLS of cascade emissions enables frequency qubits that provide alternative robust elements in quantum network. - Highlights: • Superradiance from a cascade atomic transition. • Correlated photon pair generation via four-wave mixing. • Dynamical light–matter couplings in a phased symmetrical state. • Cooperative Lamb shift in a cylindrical atomic ensemble.

Rapid roll inflation with conformal coupling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kofman, Lev; Mukohyama, Shinji

2008-01-01

Usual inflation is realized with a slow rolling scalar field minimally coupled to gravity. In contrast, we consider dynamics of a scalar with a flat effective potential, conformally coupled to gravity. Surprisingly, it contains an attractor inflationary solution with the rapidly rolling inflaton field. We discuss models with the conformal inflaton with a flat potential (including hybrid inflation). There is no generation of cosmological fluctuations from the conformally coupled inflaton. We consider realizations of modulated (inhomogeneous reheating) or curvaton cosmological fluctuations in these models. We also implement these unusual features for the popular string-theoretic warped inflationary scenario, based on the interacting D3-D3 branes. The original warped brane inflation suffers a large inflaton mass due to conformal coupling to 4-dimensional gravity. Instead of considering this as a problem and trying to cure it with extra engineering, we show that warped inflation with the conformally coupled, rapidly rolling inflaton is yet possible with N=37 efoldings, which requires low-energy scales 1-100 TeV of inflation. Coincidentally, the same warping numerology can be responsible for the hierarchy. It is shown that the scalars associated with angular isometries of the warped geometry of compact manifold (e.g. S 3 of Klebanov-Strassler (KS) geometry) have solutions identical to conformally coupled modes and also cannot be responsible for cosmological fluctuations. We discuss other possibilities

Rapid roll inflation with conformal coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Kofman, Lev; Mukohyama, Shinji

2008-02-01

Usual inflation is realized with a slow rolling scalar field minimally coupled to gravity. In contrast, we consider dynamics of a scalar with a flat effective potential, conformally coupled to gravity. Surprisingly, it contains an attractor inflationary solution with the rapidly rolling inflaton field. We discuss models with the conformal inflaton with a flat potential (including hybrid inflation). There is no generation of cosmological fluctuations from the conformally coupled inflaton. We consider realizations of modulated (inhomogeneous reheating) or curvaton cosmological fluctuations in these models. We also implement these unusual features for the popular string-theoretic warped inflationary scenario, based on the interacting D3-D¯3 branes. The original warped brane inflation suffers a large inflaton mass due to conformal coupling to 4-dimensional gravity. Instead of considering this as a problem and trying to cure it with extra engineering, we show that warped inflation with the conformally coupled, rapidly rolling inflaton is yet possible with N=37 efoldings, which requires low-energy scales 1 100 TeV of inflation. Coincidentally, the same warping numerology can be responsible for the hierarchy. It is shown that the scalars associated with angular isometries of the warped geometry of compact manifold (e.g. S3 of Klebanov-Strassler (KS) geometry) have solutions identical to conformally coupled modes and also cannot be responsible for cosmological fluctuations. We discuss other possibilities.

Interplay of charge distribution and conformation in peptides: comparison of theory and experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Makowska, Joanna; Bagińska, Katarzyna; Kasprzykowski, F; Vila, Jorge A; Jagielska, Anna; Liwo, Adam; Chmurzyński, Lech; Scheraga, Harold A

2005-01-01

We assessed the correlation between charge distribution and conformation of flexible peptides by comparing the theoretically calculated potentiometric-titration curves of two model peptides, Ac-Lys5-NHMe (a model of poly-L-lysine) and Ac-Lys-Ala11-Lys-Gly2-Tyr-NH2 (P1) in water and methanol, with the experimental curves. The calculation procedure consisted of three steps: (i) global conformational search of the peptide under study using the electrostatically driven Monte Carlo (EDMC) method with the empirical conformational energy program for peptides (ECEPP)/3 force field plus the surface-hydration (SRFOPT) or the generalized Born surface area (GBSA) solvation model as well as a molecular dynamics method with the assisted model building and energy refinement (AMBER)99/GBSA force field; (ii) reevaluation of the energy in the pH range considered by using the modified Poisson-Boltzmann approach and taking into account all possible protonation microstates of each conformation, and (iii) calculation of the average degree of protonation of the peptide at a given pH value by Boltzmann averaging over conformations. For Ac-Lys5-NHMe, the computed titration curve agrees qualitatively with the experimental curve of poly-L-lysine in 95% methanol. The experimental titration curves of peptide P1 in water and methanol indicate a remarkable downshift of the first pK(a) value compared to the values for reference compounds (n-butylamine and phenol, respectively), suggesting the presence of a hydrogen bond between the tyrosine hydroxyl oxygen and the H(epsilon) proton of a protonated lysine side chain. The theoretical titration curves agree well with the experimental curves, if conformations with such hydrogen bonds constitute a significant part of the ensemble; otherwise, the theory predicts too small a downward pH shift. Copyright 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc

Infinite additional symmetries in two-dimensional conformal quantum field theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamolodchikov, A.B.

1986-01-01

This paper investigates additional symmetries in two-dimensional conformal field theory generated by spin s = 1/2, 1,...,3 currents. For spins s = 5/2 and s = 3, the generators of the symmetry form associative algebras with quadratic determining relations. ''Minimal models'' of conforma field theory with such additional symmetries are considered. The space of local fields occurring in a conformal field theory with additional symmetry corresponds to a certain (in general, reducible) representation of the corresponding algebra of the symmetry

Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-11-01

Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For

Machines vs. ensembles: effective MAPK signaling through heterogeneous sets of protein complexes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan Suderman

Full Text Available Despite the importance of intracellular signaling networks, there is currently no consensus regarding the fundamental nature of the protein complexes such networks employ. One prominent view involves stable signaling machines with well-defined quaternary structures. The combinatorial complexity of signaling networks has led to an opposing perspective, namely that signaling proceeds via heterogeneous pleiomorphic ensembles of transient complexes. Since many hypotheses regarding network function rely on how we conceptualize signaling complexes, resolving this issue is a central problem in systems biology. Unfortunately, direct experimental characterization of these complexes has proven technologically difficult, while combinatorial complexity has prevented traditional modeling methods from approaching this question. Here we employ rule-based modeling, a technique that overcomes these limitations, to construct a model of the yeast pheromone signaling network. We found that this model exhibits significant ensemble character while generating reliable responses that match experimental observations. To contrast the ensemble behavior, we constructed a model that employs hierarchical assembly pathways to produce scaffold-based signaling machines. We found that this machine model could not replicate the experimentally observed combinatorial inhibition that arises when the scaffold is overexpressed. This finding provides evidence against the hierarchical assembly of machines in the pheromone signaling network and suggests that machines and ensembles may serve distinct purposes in vivo. In some cases, e.g. core enzymatic activities like protein synthesis and degradation, machines assembled via hierarchical energy landscapes may provide functional stability for the cell. In other cases, such as signaling, ensembles may represent a form of weak linkage, facilitating variation and plasticity in network evolution. The capacity of ensembles to signal effectively

Estimation of the uncertainty of a climate model using an ensemble simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Barth, A.; Mathiot, P.; Goosse, H.

2012-04-01

The atmospheric forcings play an important role in the study of the ocean and sea-ice dynamics of the Southern Ocean. Error in the atmospheric forcings will inevitably result in uncertain model results. The sensitivity of the model results to errors in the atmospheric forcings are studied with ensemble simulations using multivariate perturbations of the atmospheric forcing fields. The numerical ocean model used is the NEMO-LIM in a global configuration with an horizontal resolution of 2°. NCEP reanalyses are used to provide air temperature and wind data to force the ocean model over the last 50 years. A climatological mean is used to prescribe relative humidity, cloud cover and precipitation. In a first step, the model results is compared with OSTIA SST and OSI SAF sea ice concentration of the southern hemisphere. The seasonal behavior of the RMS difference and bias in SST and ice concentration is highlighted as well as the regions with relatively high RMS errors and biases such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and near the ice-edge. Ensemble simulations are performed to statistically characterize the model error due to uncertainties in the atmospheric forcings. Such information is a crucial element for future data assimilation experiments. Ensemble simulations are performed with perturbed air temperature and wind forcings. A Fourier decomposition of the NCEP wind vectors and air temperature for 2007 is used to generate ensemble perturbations. The perturbations are scaled such that the resulting ensemble spread matches approximately the RMS differences between the satellite SST and sea ice concentration. The ensemble spread and covariance are analyzed for the minimum and maximum sea ice extent. It is shown that errors in the atmospheric forcings can extend to several hundred meters in depth near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

Kinetic theory of nonequilibrium ensembles, irreversible thermodynamics, and generalized hydrodynamics

CERN Document Server

Eu, Byung Chan

2016-01-01

This book presents the fundamentals of irreversible thermodynamics for nonlinear transport processes in gases and liquids, as well as for generalized hydrodynamics extending the classical hydrodynamics of Navier, Stokes, Fourier, and Fick. Together with its companion volume on relativistic theories, it provides a comprehensive picture of the kinetic theory formulated from the viewpoint of nonequilibrium ensembles in both nonrelativistic and, in Vol. 2, relativistic contexts. Theories of macroscopic irreversible processes must strictly conform to the thermodynamic laws at every step and in all approximations that enter their derivation from the mechanical principles. Upholding this as the inviolable tenet, the author develops theories of irreversible transport processes in fluids (gases or liquids) on the basis of irreversible kinetic equations satisfying the H theorem. They apply regardless of whether the processes are near to or far removed from equilibrium, or whether they are linear or nonlinear with respe...

Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M; Guven, Erhan

2018-01-01

In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna L Buczak

Full Text Available In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico during four dengue seasons: 1 peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2 peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred; and 3 total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date.Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1 two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2 additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3 simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations.Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week.The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

Hidden conformal symmetry of extremal black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Bin; Long Jiang; Zhang Jiaju

2010-01-01

We study the hidden conformal symmetry of extremal black holes. We introduce a new set of conformal coordinates to write the SL(2,R) generators. We find that the Laplacian of the scalar field in many extremal black holes, including Kerr(-Newman), Reissner-Nordstrom, warped AdS 3 , and null warped black holes, could be written in terms of the SL(2,R) quadratic Casimir. This suggests that there exist dual conformal field theory (CFT) descriptions of these black holes. From the conformal coordinates, the temperatures of the dual CFTs could be read directly. For the extremal black hole, the Hawking temperature is vanishing. Correspondingly, only the left (right) temperature of the dual CFT is nonvanishing, and the excitations of the other sector are suppressed. In the probe limit, we compute the scattering amplitudes of the scalar off the extremal black holes and find perfect agreement with the CFT prediction.

Design and experimentation of an empirical multistructure framework for accurate, sharp and reliable hydrological ensembles

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Seiller, G.; Anctil, F.; Roy, R.

2017-09-01

This paper outlines the design and experimentation of an Empirical Multistructure Framework (EMF) for lumped conceptual hydrological modeling. This concept is inspired from modular frameworks, empirical model development, and multimodel applications, and encompasses the overproduce and select paradigm. The EMF concept aims to reduce subjectivity in conceptual hydrological modeling practice and includes model selection in the optimisation steps, reducing initial assumptions on the prior perception of the dominant rainfall-runoff transformation processes. EMF generates thousands of new modeling options from, for now, twelve parent models that share their functional components and parameters. Optimisation resorts to ensemble calibration, ranking and selection of individual child time series based on optimal bias and reliability trade-offs, as well as accuracy and sharpness improvement of the ensemble. Results on 37 snow-dominated Canadian catchments and 20 climatically-diversified American catchments reveal the excellent potential of the EMF in generating new individual model alternatives, with high respective performance values, that may be pooled efficiently into ensembles of seven to sixty constitutive members, with low bias and high accuracy, sharpness, and reliability. A group of 1446 new models is highlighted to offer good potential on other catchments or applications, based on their individual and collective interests. An analysis of the preferred functional components reveals the importance of the production and total flow elements. Overall, results from this research confirm the added value of ensemble and flexible approaches for hydrological applications, especially in uncertain contexts, and open up new modeling possibilities.

Contact planarization of ensemble nanowires

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Chia, A. C. E.; LaPierre, R. R.

2011-06-01

The viability of four organic polymers (S1808, SC200, SU8 and Cyclotene) as filling materials to achieve planarization of ensemble nanowire arrays is reported. Analysis of the porosity, surface roughness and thermal stability of each filling material was performed. Sonication was used as an effective method to remove the tops of the nanowires (NWs) to achieve complete planarization. Ensemble nanowire devices were fully fabricated and I-V measurements confirmed that Cyclotene effectively planarizes the NWs while still serving the role as an insulating layer between the top and bottom contacts. These processes and analysis can be easily implemented into future characterization and fabrication of ensemble NWs for optoelectronic device applications.

Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

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Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

2007-01-01

Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

A method to encapsulate model structural uncertainty in ensemble projections of future climate: EPIC v1.0

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Lewis

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A method, based on climate pattern scaling, has been developed to expand a small number of projections of fields of a selected climate variable (X into an ensemble that encapsulates a wide range of indicative model structural uncertainties. The method described in this paper is referred to as the Ensemble Projections Incorporating Climate model uncertainty (EPIC method. Each ensemble member is constructed by adding contributions from (1 a climatology derived from observations that represents the time-invariant part of the signal; (2 a contribution from forced changes in X, where those changes can be statistically related to changes in global mean surface temperature (Tglobal; and (3 a contribution from unforced variability that is generated by a stochastic weather generator. The patterns of unforced variability are also allowed to respond to changes in Tglobal. The statistical relationships between changes in X (and its patterns of variability and Tglobal are obtained in a training phase. Then, in an implementation phase, 190 simulations of Tglobal are generated using a simple climate model tuned to emulate 19 different global climate models (GCMs and 10 different carbon cycle models. Using the generated Tglobal time series and the correlation between the forced changes in X and Tglobal, obtained in the training phase, the forced change in the X field can be generated many times using Monte Carlo analysis. A stochastic weather generator is used to generate realistic representations of weather which include spatial coherence. Because GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs are less likely to correctly represent unforced variability compared to observations, the stochastic weather generator takes as input measures of variability derived from observations, but also responds to forced changes in climate in a way that is consistent with the RCM projections. This approach to generating a large ensemble of projections is many orders of

Intelligent and robust prediction of short term wind power using genetic programming based ensemble of neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zameer, Aneela; Arshad, Junaid; Khan, Asifullah; Raja, Muhammad Asif Zahoor

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Genetic programming based ensemble of neural networks is employed for short term wind power prediction. • Proposed predictor shows resilience against abrupt changes in weather. • Genetic programming evolves nonlinear mapping between meteorological measures and wind-power. • Proposed approach gives mathematical expressions of wind power to its independent variables. • Proposed model shows relatively accurate and steady wind-power prediction performance. - Abstract: The inherent instability of wind power production leads to critical problems for smooth power generation from wind turbines, which then requires an accurate forecast of wind power. In this study, an effective short term wind power prediction methodology is presented, which uses an intelligent ensemble regressor that comprises Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Programming. In contrast to existing series based combination of wind power predictors, whereby the error or variation in the leading predictor is propagated down the stream to the next predictors, the proposed intelligent ensemble predictor avoids this shortcoming by introducing Genetical Programming based semi-stochastic combination of neural networks. It is observed that the decision of the individual base regressors may vary due to the frequent and inherent fluctuations in the atmospheric conditions and thus meteorological properties. The novelty of the reported work lies in creating ensemble to generate an intelligent, collective and robust decision space and thereby avoiding large errors due to the sensitivity of the individual wind predictors. The proposed ensemble based regressor, Genetic Programming based ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks, has been implemented and tested on data taken from five different wind farms located in Europe. Obtained numerical results of the proposed model in terms of various error measures are compared with the recent artificial intelligence based strategies to demonstrate the

Tetrahymena telomerase protein p65 induces conformational changes throughout telomerase RNA (TER) and rescues telomerase reverse transcriptase and TER assembly mutants.

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Berman, Andrea J; Gooding, Anne R; Cech, Thomas R

2010-10-01

The biogenesis of the Tetrahymena telomerase ribonucleoprotein particle (RNP) is enhanced by p65, a La family protein. Single-molecule and biochemical studies have uncovered a hierarchical assembly of the RNP, wherein the binding of p65 to stems I and IV of telomerase RNA (TER) causes a conformational change that facilitates the subsequent binding of telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) to TER. We used purified p65 and variants of TERT and TER to investigate the conformational rearrangements that occur during RNP assembly. Nuclease protection assays and mutational analysis revealed that p65 interacts with and stimulates conformational changes in regions of TER beyond stem IV. Several TER mutants exhibited telomerase activity only in the presence of p65, revealing the importance of p65 in promoting the correct RNP assembly pathway. In addition, p65 rescued TERT assembly mutants but not TERT activity mutants. Taken together, these results suggest that p65 stimulates telomerase assembly and activity in two ways. First, by sequestering stems I and IV, p65 limits the ensemble of structural conformations of TER, thereby presenting TERT with the active conformation of TER. Second, p65 acts as a molecular buttress within the assembled RNP, mutually stabilizing TER and TERT in catalytically active conformations.

An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Stock Trading Decision Making

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Chang, Pei-Chann; Liu, Chen-Hao; Fan, Chin-Yuan; Lin, Jun-Lin; Lai, Chih-Ming

Stock turning signals detection are very interesting subject arising in numerous financial and economic planning problems. In this paper, Ensemble Neural Network system with Intelligent Piecewise Linear Representation for stock turning points detection is presented. The Intelligent piecewise linear representation method is able to generate numerous stocks turning signals from the historic data base, then Ensemble Neural Network system will be applied to train the pattern and retrieve similar stock price patterns from historic data for training. These turning signals represent short-term and long-term trading signals for selling or buying stocks from the market which are applied to forecast the future turning points from the set of test data. Experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid system can make a significant and constant amount of profit when compared with other approaches using stock data available in the market.

Real­-Time Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the Wsa-Enlil+Cone Model

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Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.; Rastaetter, L.; LaSota, J. A.

2014-12-01

Ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provides significant information in that it provides an estimation of the spread or uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions. Real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation is performed by forecasters at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) using the WSA-ENLIL+cone model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). To estimate the effect of uncertainties in determining CME input parameters on arrival time predictions, a distribution of n (routinely n=48) CME input parameter sets are generated using the CCMC Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT) which employs geometrical triangulation techniques. These input parameters are used to perform n different simulations yielding an ensemble of solar wind parameters at various locations of interest, including a probability distribution of CME arrival times (for hits), and geomagnetic storm strength (for Earth-directed hits). We present the results of ensemble simulations for a total of 38 CME events in 2013-2014. For 28 of the ensemble runs containing hits, the observed CME arrival was within the range of ensemble arrival time predictions for 14 runs (half). The average arrival time prediction was computed for each of the 28 ensembles predicting hits and using the actual arrival time, an average absolute error of 10.0 hours (RMSE=11.4 hours) was found for all 28 ensembles, which is comparable to current forecasting errors. Some considerations for the accuracy of ensemble CME arrival time predictions include the importance of the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the mean and spread. When the observed arrivals are not within the predicted range, this still allows the ruling out of prediction errors caused by tested CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters such as the accuracy of the solar wind background, and other limitations. Additionally the ensemble modeling sysem was used to

Ensembl Genomes: an integrative resource for genome-scale data from non-vertebrate species.

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Kersey, Paul J; Staines, Daniel M; Lawson, Daniel; Kulesha, Eugene; Derwent, Paul; Humphrey, Jay C; Hughes, Daniel S T; Keenan, Stephan; Kerhornou, Arnaud; Koscielny, Gautier; Langridge, Nicholas; McDowall, Mark D; Megy, Karine; Maheswari, Uma; Nuhn, Michael; Paulini, Michael; Pedro, Helder; Toneva, Iliana; Wilson, Derek; Yates, Andrew; Birney, Ewan

2012-01-01

Ensembl Genomes (http://www.ensemblgenomes.org) is an integrative resource for genome-scale data from non-vertebrate species. The project exploits and extends technology (for genome annotation, analysis and dissemination) developed in the context of the (vertebrate-focused) Ensembl project and provides a complementary set of resources for non-vertebrate species through a consistent set of programmatic and interactive interfaces. These provide access to data including reference sequence, gene models, transcriptional data, polymorphisms and comparative analysis. Since its launch in 2009, Ensembl Genomes has undergone rapid expansion, with the goal of providing coverage of all major experimental organisms, and additionally including taxonomic reference points to provide the evolutionary context in which genes can be understood. Against the backdrop of a continuing increase in genome sequencing activities in all parts of the tree of life, we seek to work, wherever possible, with the communities actively generating and using data, and are participants in a growing range of collaborations involved in the annotation and analysis of genomes.

A New Ensemble Method with Feature Space Partitioning for High-Dimensional Data Classification

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Yongjun Piao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Ensemble data mining methods, also known as classifier combination, are often used to improve the performance of classification. Various classifier combination methods such as bagging, boosting, and random forest have been devised and have received considerable attention in the past. However, data dimensionality increases rapidly day by day. Such a trend poses various challenges as these methods are not suitable to directly apply to high-dimensional datasets. In this paper, we propose an ensemble method for classification of high-dimensional data, with each classifier constructed from a different set of features determined by partitioning of redundant features. In our method, the redundancy of features is considered to divide the original feature space. Then, each generated feature subset is trained by a support vector machine, and the results of each classifier are combined by majority voting. The efficiency and effectiveness of our method are demonstrated through comparisons with other ensemble techniques, and the results show that our method outperforms other methods.

Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

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Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrison, Steven J; Price, Harry E; Smedley, Eric M; Meals, Cory D

2014-01-01

Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor's gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance: articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and non-majors (N = 285) viewed sixteen 30 s performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble's articulation, dynamics, technique, and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble's performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity.

epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

2016-12-01

Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Ensemble forecasting of potential habitat for three invasive fishes

Science.gov (United States)

Poulos, Helen M.; Chernoff, Barry; Fuller, Pam L.; Butman, David

2012-01-01

Aquatic invasive species pose major ecological and economic threats to aquatic ecosystems worldwide via displacement, predation, or hybridization with native species and the alteration of aquatic habitats and hydrologic cycles. Modeling the habitat suitability of alien aquatic species through spatially explicit mapping is an increasingly important risk assessment tool. Habitat modeling also facilitates identification of key environmental variables influencing invasive species distributions. We compared four modeling methods to predict the potential continental United States distributions of northern snakehead Channa argus (Cantor, 1842), round goby Neogobius melanostomus (Pallas, 1814), and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (Valenciennes, 1844) using maximum entropy (Maxent), the genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP), DOMAIN, and support vector machines (SVM). We used inventory records from the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database and a geographic information system of 20 climatic and environmental variables to generate individual and ensemble distribution maps for each species. The ensemble maps from our study performed as well as or better than all of the individual models except Maxent. The ensemble and Maxent models produced significantly higher accuracy individual maps than GARP, one-class SVMs, or DOMAIN. The key environmental predictor variables in the individual models were consistent with the tolerances of each species. Results from this study provide insights into which locations and environmental conditions may promote the future spread of invasive fish in the US.

Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Man, Jun [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Zhang, Jiangjiang [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Li, Weixuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zeng, Lingzao [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Wu, Laosheng [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside California USA

2016-10-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.

Gauging the graded conformal group with unitary internal symmetries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrara, S.; Townsend, P.K.; Kaku, M.; Nieuwenhuizen Van, P.

1977-06-01

Gauge theories for extended SU(N) conformal supergravity are constructed which are invariant under local scale, chiral, proper conformal, supersymmetry and internal SU(N) transformations. The relation between intrinsic parity and symmetry properties of their generators of the internal vector mesons is established. These theories contain no cosmological constants, but technical problems inherent to higher derivative actions are pointed out

Ensemble Artifact Design For Context Sensitive Decision Support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shah J Miah

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Although an improvement of design knowledge is an essential goal of design research, current design research predominantly focuses on knowledge concerning the IT artifact (tool design process, rather than a more holistic understanding encompassing the dynamic usage contexts of a technological artifact. Conceptualising a design in context as an “ensemble artifact” (Sein et al., 2011 provides the basis for a more rigorous treatment. This paper describes an IS artifact design framework that has been generated from the development of several practitioner-oriented decision support systems (DSS in which contextual aspects relevant to practitioners’ decision making are considered as integral design themes. We describe five key dimensions of an ensemble artifact design and show their value in designing practitioner-oriented DSS. The features are user centredness, knowledge sharing, situation-specific customisation, reduced model orientation, and practice based secondary design abilities. It is argued that this understanding can contribute to design research knowledge more effectively both to develop dynamic DSS, and by its extensibility to other artifact designs.

What can we learn by computing 13Cα chemical shifts for X-ray protein models?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnautova, Yelena A.; Vila, Jorge A.; Martin, Osvaldo A.; Scheraga, Harold A.

2009-01-01

The room-temperature X-ray structures of two proteins, solved at 1.8 and 1.9 Å resolution, are used to investigate whether a set of conformations, rather than a single X-ray structure, provides better agreement with both the X-ray data and the observed 13 C α chemical shifts in solution. The room-temperature X-ray structures of ubiquitin and of the RNA-binding domain of nonstructural protein 1 of influenza A virus solved at 1.8 and 1.9 Å resolution, respectively, were used to investigate whether a set of conformations rather than a single X-ray structure provides better agreement with both the X-ray data and the observed 13 C α chemical shifts in solution. For this purpose, a set of new conformations for each of these proteins was generated by fitting them to the experimental X-ray data deposited in the PDB. For each of the generated structures, which show R and R free factors similar to those of the deposited X-ray structure, the 13 C α chemical shifts of all residues in the sequence were computed at the DFT level of theory. The sets of conformations were then evaluated by their ability to reproduce the observed 13 C α chemical shifts by using the conformational average root-mean-square-deviation (ca-r.m.s.d.). For ubiquitin, the computed set of conformations is a better representation of the observed 13 C α chemical shifts in terms of the ca-r.m.s.d. than a single X-ray-derived structure. However, for the RNA-binding domain of nonstructural protein 1 of influenza A virus, consideration of an ensemble of conformations does not improve the agreement with the observed 13 C α chemical shifts. Whether an ensemble of conformations rather than any single structure is a more accurate representation of a protein structure in the crystal as well as of the observed 13 C α chemical shifts is determined by the dispersion of coordinates, in terms of the all-atom r.m.s.d. among the generated models; these generated models satisfy the experimental X-ray data with

Modality-Driven Classification and Visualization of Ensemble Variance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bensema, Kevin; Gosink, Luke; Obermaier, Harald; Joy, Kenneth I.

2016-10-01

Advances in computational power now enable domain scientists to address conceptual and parametric uncertainty by running simulations multiple times in order to sufficiently sample the uncertain input space. While this approach helps address conceptual and parametric uncertainties, the ensemble datasets produced by this technique present a special challenge to visualization researchers as the ensemble dataset records a distribution of possible values for each location in the domain. Contemporary visualization approaches that rely solely on summary statistics (e.g., mean and variance) cannot convey the detailed information encoded in ensemble distributions that are paramount to ensemble analysis; summary statistics provide no information about modality classification and modality persistence. To address this problem, we propose a novel technique that classifies high-variance locations based on the modality of the distribution of ensemble predictions. Additionally, we develop a set of confidence metrics to inform the end-user of the quality of fit between the distribution at a given location and its assigned class. We apply a similar method to time-varying ensembles to illustrate the relationship between peak variance and bimodal or multimodal behavior. These classification schemes enable a deeper understanding of the behavior of the ensemble members by distinguishing between distributions that can be described by a single tendency and distributions which reflect divergent trends in the ensemble.

Workers’ Conformism

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Nikolay Ivantchev

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Conformism was studied among 46 workers with different kinds of occupations by means of two modified scales measuring conformity by Santor, Messervey, and Kusumakar (2000 – scale for perceived peer pressure and scale for conformism in antisocial situations. The hypothesis of the study that workers’ conformism is expressed in a medium degree was confirmed partly. More than a half of the workers conform in a medium degree for taking risk, and for the use of alcohol and drugs, and for sexual relationships. More than a half of the respondents conform in a small degree for anti-social activities (like a theft. The workers were more inclined to conform for risk taking (10.9%, then – for the use of alcohol, drugs and for sexual relationships (8.7%, and in the lowest degree – for anti-social activities (6.5%. The workers who were inclined for the use of alcohol and drugs tended also to conform for anti-social activities.

Combining NMR ensembles and molecular dynamics simulations provides more realistic models of protein structures in solution and leads to better chemical shift prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehtivarjo, Juuso; Tuppurainen, Kari; Hassinen, Tommi; Laatikainen, Reino; Peräkylä, Mikael

2012-01-01

While chemical shifts are invaluable for obtaining structural information from proteins, they also offer one of the rare ways to obtain information about protein dynamics. A necessary tool in transforming chemical shifts into structural and dynamic information is chemical shift prediction. In our previous work we developed a method for 4D prediction of protein 1 H chemical shifts in which molecular motions, the 4th dimension, were modeled using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Although the approach clearly improved the prediction, the X-ray structures and single NMR conformers used in the model cannot be considered fully realistic models of protein in solution. In this work, NMR ensembles (NMRE) were used to expand the conformational space of proteins (e.g. side chains, flexible loops, termini), followed by MD simulations for each conformer to map the local fluctuations. Compared with the non-dynamic model, the NMRE+MD model gave 6–17% lower root-mean-square (RMS) errors for different backbone nuclei. The improved prediction indicates that NMR ensembles with MD simulations can be used to obtain a more realistic picture of protein structures in solutions and moreover underlines the importance of short and long time-scale dynamics for the prediction. The RMS errors of the NMRE+MD model were 0.24, 0.43, 0.98, 1.03, 1.16 and 2.39 ppm for 1 Hα, 1 HN, 13 Cα, 13 Cβ, 13 CO and backbone 15 N chemical shifts, respectively. The model is implemented in the prediction program 4DSPOT, available at http://www.uef.fi/4dspothttp://www.uef.fi/4dspot.

Combining NMR ensembles and molecular dynamics simulations provides more realistic models of protein structures in solution and leads to better chemical shift prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehtivarjo, Juuso, E-mail: juuso.lehtivarjo@uef.fi; Tuppurainen, Kari; Hassinen, Tommi; Laatikainen, Reino [University of Eastern Finland, School of Pharmacy (Finland); Peraekylae, Mikael [University of Eastern Finland, Institute of Biomedicine (Finland)

2012-03-15

While chemical shifts are invaluable for obtaining structural information from proteins, they also offer one of the rare ways to obtain information about protein dynamics. A necessary tool in transforming chemical shifts into structural and dynamic information is chemical shift prediction. In our previous work we developed a method for 4D prediction of protein {sup 1}H chemical shifts in which molecular motions, the 4th dimension, were modeled using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Although the approach clearly improved the prediction, the X-ray structures and single NMR conformers used in the model cannot be considered fully realistic models of protein in solution. In this work, NMR ensembles (NMRE) were used to expand the conformational space of proteins (e.g. side chains, flexible loops, termini), followed by MD simulations for each conformer to map the local fluctuations. Compared with the non-dynamic model, the NMRE+MD model gave 6-17% lower root-mean-square (RMS) errors for different backbone nuclei. The improved prediction indicates that NMR ensembles with MD simulations can be used to obtain a more realistic picture of protein structures in solutions and moreover underlines the importance of short and long time-scale dynamics for the prediction. The RMS errors of the NMRE+MD model were 0.24, 0.43, 0.98, 1.03, 1.16 and 2.39 ppm for {sup 1}H{alpha}, {sup 1}HN, {sup 13}C{alpha}, {sup 13}C{beta}, {sup 13}CO and backbone {sup 15}N chemical shifts, respectively. The model is implemented in the prediction program 4DSPOT, available at http://www.uef.fi/4dspothttp://www.uef.fi/4dspot.

Conformal constraint in canonical quantum gravity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

t Hooft, G.

2010-01-01

Perturbative canonical quantum gravity is considered, when coupled to a renormalizable model for matter fields. It is proposed that the functional integral over the dilaton field should be disentangled from the other integrations over the metric fields. This should generate a conformally invariant

Reduction of Used Memory Ensemble Kalman Filtering (RumEnKF): A data assimilation scheme for memory intensive, high performance computing

Science.gov (United States)

Hut, Rolf; Amisigo, Barnabas A.; Steele-Dunne, Susan; van de Giesen, Nick

2015-12-01

Reduction of Used Memory Ensemble Kalman Filtering (RumEnKF) is introduced as a variant on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). RumEnKF differs from EnKF in that it does not store the entire ensemble, but rather only saves the first two moments of the ensemble distribution. In this way, the number of ensemble members that can be calculated is less dependent on available memory, and mainly on available computing power (CPU). RumEnKF is developed to make optimal use of current generation super computer architecture, where the number of available floating point operations (flops) increases more rapidly than the available memory and where inter-node communication can quickly become a bottleneck. RumEnKF reduces the used memory compared to the EnKF when the number of ensemble members is greater than half the number of state variables. In this paper, three simple models are used (auto-regressive, low dimensional Lorenz and high dimensional Lorenz) to show that RumEnKF performs similarly to the EnKF. Furthermore, it is also shown that increasing the ensemble size has a similar impact on the estimation error from the three algorithms.

Tailored graph ensembles as proxies or null models for real networks II: results on directed graphs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, E S; Coolen, A C C; Schlitt, T

2011-01-01

We generate new mathematical tools with which to quantify the macroscopic topological structure of large directed networks. This is achieved via a statistical mechanical analysis of constrained maximum entropy ensembles of directed random graphs with prescribed joint distributions for in- and out-degrees and prescribed degree-degree correlation functions. We calculate exact and explicit formulae for the leading orders in the system size of the Shannon entropies and complexities of these ensembles, and for information-theoretic distances. The results are applied to data on gene regulation networks.

Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reason L. Machete

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Ensemble simulation propagates a collection of initial states forward in time in a Monte Carlo fashion. Depending on the fidelity of the model and the properties of the initial ensemble, the goal of ensemble simulation can range from merely quantifying variations in the sensitivity of the model all the way to providing actionable probability forecasts of the future. Whatever the goal is, success depends on the properties of the ensemble, and there is a longstanding discussion in meteorology as to the size of initial condition ensemble most appropriate for Numerical Weather Prediction. In terms of resource allocation: how is one to divide finite computing resources between model complexity, ensemble size, data assimilation and other components of the forecast system. One wishes to avoid undersampling information available from the model's dynamics, yet one also wishes to use the highest fidelity model available. Arguably, a higher fidelity model can better exploit a larger ensemble; nevertheless it is often suggested that a relatively small ensemble, say ~16 members, is sufficient and that larger ensembles are not an effective investment of resources. This claim is shown to be dubious when the goal is probabilistic forecasting, even in settings where the forecast model is informative but imperfect. Probability forecasts for a ‘simple’ physical system are evaluated at different lead times; ensembles of up to 256 members are considered. The pure density estimation context (where ensemble members are drawn from the same underlying distribution as the target differs from the forecasting context, where one is given a high fidelity (but imperfect model. In the forecasting context, the information provided by additional members depends also on the fidelity of the model, the ensemble formation scheme (data assimilation, the ensemble interpretation and the nature of the observational noise. The effect of increasing the ensemble size is quantified by

Ensemble Weight Enumerators for Protograph LDPC Codes

Science.gov (United States)

Divsalar, Dariush

2006-01-01

Recently LDPC codes with projected graph, or protograph structures have been proposed. In this paper, finite length ensemble weight enumerators for LDPC codes with protograph structures are obtained. Asymptotic results are derived as the block size goes to infinity. In particular we are interested in obtaining ensemble average weight enumerators for protograph LDPC codes which have minimum distance that grows linearly with block size. As with irregular ensembles, linear minimum distance property is sensitive to the proportion of degree-2 variable nodes. In this paper the derived results on ensemble weight enumerators show that linear minimum distance condition on degree distribution of unstructured irregular LDPC codes is a sufficient but not a necessary condition for protograph LDPC codes.

Determination of the populations and structures of multiple conformers in an ensemble from NMR data: Multiple-copy refinement of nucleic acid structures using floating weights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goerler, Adrian; Ulyanov, Nikolai B.; James, Thomas L.

2000-01-01

A new algorithm is presented for determination of structural conformers and their populations based on NMR data. Restrained Metropolis Monte Carlo simulations or restrained energy minimizations are performed for several copies of a molecule simultaneously. The calculations are restrained with dipolar relaxation rates derived from measured NOE intensities via complete relaxation matrix analysis. The novel feature of the algorithm is that the weights of individual conformers are determined in every refinement step, by the quadratic programming algorithm, in such a way that the restraint energy is minimized. Its design ensures that the calculated populations of the individual conformers are based only on experimental restraints. Presence of internally inconsistent restraints is the driving force for determination of distinct multiple conformers. The method is applied to various simulated test systems. Conformational calculations on nucleic acids are carried out using generalized helical parameters with the program DNAminiCarlo. From different mixtures of A- and B-DNA, minor fractions as low as 10% could be determined with restrained energy minimization. For B-DNA with three local conformers (C2'-endo, O4'-exo, C3'-endo), the minor O4'-exo conformer could not be reliably determined using NOE data typically measured for DNA. The other two conformers, C2'-endo and C3'-endo, could be reproduced by Metropolis Monte Carlo simulated annealing. The behavior of the algorithm in various situations is analyzed, and a number of refinement protocols are discussed. Prior to application of this algorithm to each experimental system, it is suggested that the presence of internal inconsistencies in experimental data be ascertained. In addition, because the performance of the algorithm depends on the type of conformers involved and experimental data available, it is advisable to carry out test calculations with simulated data modeling each experimental system studied

Conformation radiotherapy and conformal radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morita, Kozo

1999-01-01

In order to coincide the high dose region to the target volume, the 'Conformation Radiotherapy Technique' using the multileaf collimator and the device for 'hollow-out technique' was developed by Prof. S. Takahashi in 1960. This technique can be classified a type of 2D-dynamic conformal RT techniques. By the clinical application of this technique, the late complications of the lens, the intestine and the urinary bladder after radiotherapy for the maxillary cancer and the cervical cancer decreased. Since 1980's the exact position and shape of the tumor and the surrounding normal tissues can be easily obtained by the tremendous development of the CT/MRI imaging technique. As a result, various kinds of new conformal techniques such as the 3D-CRT, the dose intensity modulation, the tomotherapy have been developed since the beginning of 1990'. Several 'dose escalation study with 2D-/3D conformal RT' is now under way to improve the treatment results. (author)

Ensemble atmospheric dispersion calculations for decision support systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borysiewicz, M.; Potempski, S.; Galkowski, A.; Zelazny, R.

2003-01-01

This document describes two approaches to long-range atmospheric dispersion of pollutants based on the ensemble concept. In the first part of the report some experiences related to the exercises undertaken under the ENSEMBLE project of the European Union are presented. The second part is devoted to the implementation of mesoscale numerical prediction models RAMS and atmospheric dispersion model HYPACT on Beowulf cluster and theirs usage for ensemble forecasting and long range atmospheric ensemble dispersion calculations based on available meteorological data from NCEO, NOAA (USA). (author)

Identification of Serine Conformers by Matrix-Isolation IR Spectroscopy Aided by Near-Infrared Laser-Induced Conformational Change, 2D Correlation Analysis, and Quantum Mechanical Anharmonic Computations.

Science.gov (United States)

Najbauer, Eszter E; Bazsó, Gábor; Apóstolo, Rui; Fausto, Rui; Biczysko, Malgorzata; Barone, Vincenzo; Tarczay, György

2015-08-20

The conformers of α-serine were investigated by matrix-isolation IR spectroscopy combined with NIR laser irradiation. This method, aided by 2D correlation analysis, enabled unambiguously grouping the spectral lines to individual conformers. On the basis of comparison of at least nine experimentally observed vibrational transitions of each conformer with empirically scaled (SQM) and anharmonic (GVPT2) computed IR spectra, six conformers were identified. In addition, the presence of at least one more conformer in Ar matrix was proved, and a short-lived conformer with a half-life of (3.7 ± 0.5) × 10(3) s in N2 matrix was generated by NIR irradiation. The analysis of the NIR laser-induced conversions revealed that the excitation of the stretching overtone of both the side chain and the carboxylic OH groups can effectively promote conformational changes, but remarkably different paths were observed for the two kinds of excitations.

Killing tensors and conformal Killing tensors from conformal Killing vectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rani, Raffaele; Edgar, S Brian; Barnes, Alan

2003-01-01

Koutras has proposed some methods to construct reducible proper conformal Killing tensors and Killing tensors (which are, in general, irreducible) when a pair of orthogonal conformal Killing vectors exist in a given space. We give the completely general result demonstrating that this severe restriction of orthogonality is unnecessary. In addition, we correct and extend some results concerning Killing tensors constructed from a single conformal Killing vector. A number of examples demonstrate that it is possible to construct a much larger class of reducible proper conformal Killing tensors and Killing tensors than permitted by the Koutras algorithms. In particular, by showing that all conformal Killing tensors are reducible in conformally flat spaces, we have a method of constructing all conformal Killing tensors, and hence all the Killing tensors (which will in general be irreducible) of conformally flat spaces using their conformal Killing vectors

Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation in Reservoir Characterization: A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seungpil Jung

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a review of ensemble-based data assimilation for strongly nonlinear problems on the characterization of heterogeneous reservoirs with different production histories. It concentrates on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and ensemble smoother (ES as representative frameworks, discusses their pros and cons, and investigates recent progress to overcome their drawbacks. The typical weaknesses of ensemble-based methods are non-Gaussian parameters, improper prior ensembles and finite population size. Three categorized approaches, to mitigate these limitations, are reviewed with recent accomplishments; improvement of Kalman gains, add-on of transformation functions, and independent evaluation of observed data. The data assimilation in heterogeneous reservoirs, applying the improved ensemble methods, is discussed on predicting unknown dynamic data in reservoir characterization.

Various multistage ensembles for prediction of heating energy consumption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radisa Jovanovic

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Feedforward neural network models are created for prediction of daily heating energy consumption of a NTNU university campus Gloshaugen using actual measured data for training and testing. Improvement of prediction accuracy is proposed by using neural network ensemble. Previously trained feed-forward neural networks are first separated into clusters, using k-means algorithm, and then the best network of each cluster is chosen as member of an ensemble. Two conventional averaging methods for obtaining ensemble output are applied; simple and weighted. In order to achieve better prediction results, multistage ensemble is investigated. As second level, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with various clustering and membership functions are used to aggregate the selected ensemble members. Feedforward neural network in second stage is also analyzed. It is shown that using ensemble of neural networks can predict heating energy consumption with better accuracy than the best trained single neural network, while the best results are achieved with multistage ensemble.

Ensemble Genetic Fuzzy Neuro Model Applied for the Emergency Medical Service via Unbalanced Data Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muammar Sadrawi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Equally partitioned data are essential for prediction. However, in some important cases, the data distribution is severely unbalanced. In this study, several algorithms are utilized to maximize the learning accuracy when dealing with a highly unbalanced dataset. A linguistic algorithm is applied to evaluate the input and output relationship, namely Fuzzy c-Means (FCM, which is applied as a clustering algorithm for the majority class to balance the minority class data from about 3 million cases. Each cluster is used to train several artificial neural network (ANN models. Different techniques are applied to generate an ensemble genetic fuzzy neuro model (EGFNM in order to select the models. The first ensemble technique, the intra-cluster EGFNM, works by evaluating the best combination from all the models generated by each cluster. Another ensemble technique is the inter-cluster model EGFNM, which is based on selecting the best model from each cluster. The accuracy of these techniques is evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC via its area under the curve (AUC. Results show that the AUC of the unbalanced data is 0.67974. The random cluster and best ANN single model have AUCs of 0.7177 and 0.72806, respectively. For the ensemble evaluations, the intra-cluster and the inter-cluster EGFNMs produce 0.7293 and 0.73038, respectively. In conclusion, this study achieved improved results by performing the EGFNM method compared with the unbalanced training. This study concludes that selecting several best models will produce a better result compared with all models combined.

Inflation and conformal invariance: the perspective from radial quantization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kehagias, Alex [Physics Division, National Technical University of Athens, 15780 Zografou Campus, Athens (Greece); Theoretical Physics Department, CERN, CH-1211 Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Riotto, Antonio [Department of Theoretical Physics and Center for Astroparticle Physics (CAP) 24 quai E. Ansermet, CH-1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland)

2017-05-15

According to the dS/CFT correspondence, correlators of fields generated during a primordial de Sitter phase are constrained by three-dimensional conformal invariance. Using the properties of radially quantized conformal field theories and the operator-state correspondence, we glean information on some points. The Higuchi bound on the masses of spin-s states in de Sitter is a direct consequence of reflection positivity in radially quantized CFT{sub 3} and the fact that scaling dimensions of operators are energies of states. The partial massless states appearing in de Sitter correspond from the boundary CFT{sub 3} perspective to boundary states with highest weight for the conformal group. Finally, we discuss the inflationary consistency relations and the role of asymptotic symmetries which transform asymptotic vacua to new physically inequivalent vacua by generating long perturbation modes. We show that on the CFT{sub 3} side, asymptotic symmetries have a nice quantum mechanics interpretation. For instance, acting with the asymptotic dilation symmetry corresponds to evolving states forward (or backward) in ''time'' and the charge generating the asymptotic symmetry transformation is the Hamiltonian itself. (copyright 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

Ensemble Machine Learning Methods and Applications

CERN Document Server

Ma, Yunqian

2012-01-01

It is common wisdom that gathering a variety of views and inputs improves the process of decision making, and, indeed, underpins a democratic society. Dubbed “ensemble learning” by researchers in computational intelligence and machine learning, it is known to improve a decision system’s robustness and accuracy. Now, fresh developments are allowing researchers to unleash the power of ensemble learning in an increasing range of real-world applications. Ensemble learning algorithms such as “boosting” and “random forest” facilitate solutions to key computational issues such as face detection and are now being applied in areas as diverse as object trackingand bioinformatics.   Responding to a shortage of literature dedicated to the topic, this volume offers comprehensive coverage of state-of-the-art ensemble learning techniques, including various contributions from researchers in leading industrial research labs. At once a solid theoretical study and a practical guide, the volume is a windfall for r...

The impact of base stacking on the conformations and electrostatics of single-stranded DNA.

Science.gov (United States)

Plumridge, Alex; Meisburger, Steve P; Andresen, Kurt; Pollack, Lois

2017-04-20

Single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) is notable for its interactions with ssDNA binding proteins (SSBs) during fundamentally important biological processes including DNA repair and replication. Previous work has begun to characterize the conformational and electrostatic properties of ssDNA in association with SSBs. However, the conformational distributions of free ssDNA have been difficult to determine. To capture the vast array of ssDNA conformations in solution, we pair small angle X-ray scattering with novel ensemble fitting methods, obtaining key parameters such as the size, shape and stacking character of strands with different sequences. Complementary ion counting measurements using inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy are employed to determine the composition of the ion atmosphere at physiological ionic strength. Applying this combined approach to poly dA and poly dT, we find that the global properties of these sequences are very similar, despite having vastly different propensities for single-stranded helical stacking. These results suggest that a relatively simple mechanism for the binding of ssDNA to non-specific SSBs may be at play, which explains the disparity in binding affinities observed for these systems. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Bayesian network ensemble as a multivariate strategy to predict radiation pneumonitis risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sangkyu, E-mail: sangkyu.lee@mail.mcgill.ca; Ybarra, Norma; Jeyaseelan, Krishinima; Seuntjens, Jan; El Naqa, Issam [Medical Physics Unit, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3G1A4 (Canada); Faria, Sergio; Kopek, Neil; Brisebois, Pascale [Department of Radiation Oncology, Montreal General Hospital, Montreal, H3G1A4 (Canada); Bradley, Jeffrey D.; Robinson, Clifford [Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 (United States)

2015-05-15

Purpose: Prediction of radiation pneumonitis (RP) has been shown to be challenging due to the involvement of a variety of factors including dose–volume metrics and radiosensitivity biomarkers. Some of these factors are highly correlated and might affect prediction results when combined. Bayesian network (BN) provides a probabilistic framework to represent variable dependencies in a directed acyclic graph. The aim of this study is to integrate the BN framework and a systems’ biology approach to detect possible interactions among RP risk factors and exploit these relationships to enhance both the understanding and prediction of RP. Methods: The authors studied 54 nonsmall-cell lung cancer patients who received curative 3D-conformal radiotherapy. Nineteen RP events were observed (common toxicity criteria for adverse events grade 2 or higher). Serum concentration of the following four candidate biomarkers were measured at baseline and midtreatment: alpha-2-macroglobulin, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE), transforming growth factor, interleukin-6. Dose-volumetric and clinical parameters were also included as covariates. Feature selection was performed using a Markov blanket approach based on the Koller–Sahami filter. The Markov chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior distribution of BN graphs built from the observed data of the selected variables and causality constraints. RP probability was estimated using a limited number of high posterior graphs (ensemble) and was averaged for the final RP estimate using Bayes’ rule. A resampling method based on bootstrapping was applied to model training and validation in order to control under- and overfit pitfalls. Results: RP prediction power of the BN ensemble approach reached its optimum at a size of 200. The optimized performance of the BN model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83, which was significantly higher than multivariate logistic regression (0

Bayesian network ensemble as a multivariate strategy to predict radiation pneumonitis risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sangkyu; Ybarra, Norma; Jeyaseelan, Krishinima; Seuntjens, Jan; El Naqa, Issam; Faria, Sergio; Kopek, Neil; Brisebois, Pascale; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; Robinson, Clifford

2015-01-01

Purpose: Prediction of radiation pneumonitis (RP) has been shown to be challenging due to the involvement of a variety of factors including dose–volume metrics and radiosensitivity biomarkers. Some of these factors are highly correlated and might affect prediction results when combined. Bayesian network (BN) provides a probabilistic framework to represent variable dependencies in a directed acyclic graph. The aim of this study is to integrate the BN framework and a systems’ biology approach to detect possible interactions among RP risk factors and exploit these relationships to enhance both the understanding and prediction of RP. Methods: The authors studied 54 nonsmall-cell lung cancer patients who received curative 3D-conformal radiotherapy. Nineteen RP events were observed (common toxicity criteria for adverse events grade 2 or higher). Serum concentration of the following four candidate biomarkers were measured at baseline and midtreatment: alpha-2-macroglobulin, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE), transforming growth factor, interleukin-6. Dose-volumetric and clinical parameters were also included as covariates. Feature selection was performed using a Markov blanket approach based on the Koller–Sahami filter. The Markov chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior distribution of BN graphs built from the observed data of the selected variables and causality constraints. RP probability was estimated using a limited number of high posterior graphs (ensemble) and was averaged for the final RP estimate using Bayes’ rule. A resampling method based on bootstrapping was applied to model training and validation in order to control under- and overfit pitfalls. Results: RP prediction power of the BN ensemble approach reached its optimum at a size of 200. The optimized performance of the BN model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83, which was significantly higher than multivariate logistic regression (0

Tailored graph ensembles as proxies or null models for real networks I: tools for quantifying structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Annibale, A; Coolen, A C C; Fernandes, L P; Fraternali, F; Kleinjung, J

2009-01-01

We study the tailoring of structured random graph ensembles to real networks, with the objective of generating precise and practical mathematical tools for quantifying and comparing network topologies macroscopically, beyond the level of degree statistics. Our family of ensembles can produce graphs with any prescribed degree distribution and any degree-degree correlation function; its control parameters can be calculated fully analytically, and as a result we can calculate (asymptotically) formulae for entropies and complexities and for information-theoretic distances between networks, expressed directly and explicitly in terms of their measured degree distribution and degree correlations.

Popular Music and the Instrumental Ensemble.

Science.gov (United States)

Boespflug, George

1999-01-01

Discusses popular music, the role of the musical performer as a creator, and the styles of jazz and popular music. Describes the pop ensemble at the college level, focusing on improvisation, rehearsals, recording, and performance. Argues that pop ensembles be used in junior and senior high school. (CMK)

Exotic Galilean conformal symmetry and its dynamical realisations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lukierski, J.; Stichel, P.C.; Zakrzewski, W.J.

2006-01-01

The six-dimensional exotic Galilean algebra in (2+1) dimensions with two central charges m and θ, is extended when m=0, to a ten-dimensional Galilean conformal algebra with dilatation, expansion, two acceleration generators and the central charge θ. A realisation of such a symmetry is provided by a model with higher derivatives recently discussed in [P.C. Stichel, W.J. Zakrzewski, Ann. Phys. 310 (2004) 158]. We consider also a realisation of the Galilean conformal symmetry for the motion with a Coulomb potential and a magnetic vortex interaction. Finally, we study the restriction, as well as the modification, of the Galilean conformal algebra obtained after the introduction of the minimally coupled constant electric and magnetic fields

Loop Electrostatics Asymmetry Modulates the Preexisting Conformational Equilibrium in Thrombin.

Science.gov (United States)

Pozzi, Nicola; Zerbetto, Mirco; Acquasaliente, Laura; Tescari, Simone; Frezzato, Diego; Polimeno, Antonino; Gohara, David W; Di Cera, Enrico; De Filippis, Vincenzo

2016-07-19

Thrombin exists as an ensemble of active (E) and inactive (E*) conformations that differ in their accessibility to the active site. Here we show that redistribution of the E*-E equilibrium can be achieved by perturbing the electrostatic properties of the enzyme. Removal of the negative charge of the catalytic Asp102 or Asp189 in the primary specificity site destabilizes the E form and causes a shift in the 215-217 segment that compromises substrate entrance. Solution studies and existing structures of D102N document stabilization of the E* form. A new high-resolution structure of D189A also reveals the mutant in the collapsed E* form. These findings establish a new paradigm for the control of the E*-E equilibrium in the trypsin fold.

Ensemble Kalman methods for inverse problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iglesias, Marco A; Law, Kody J H; Stuart, Andrew M

2013-01-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was introduced by Evensen in 1994 (Evensen 1994 J. Geophys. Res. 99 10143–62) as a novel method for data assimilation: state estimation for noisily observed time-dependent problems. Since that time it has had enormous impact in many application domains because of its robustness and ease of implementation, and numerical evidence of its accuracy. In this paper we propose the application of an iterative ensemble Kalman method for the solution of a wide class of inverse problems. In this context we show that the estimate of the unknown function that we obtain with the ensemble Kalman method lies in a subspace A spanned by the initial ensemble. Hence the resulting error may be bounded above by the error found from the best approximation in this subspace. We provide numerical experiments which compare the error incurred by the ensemble Kalman method for inverse problems with the error of the best approximation in A, and with variants on traditional least-squares approaches, restricted to the subspace A. In so doing we demonstrate that the ensemble Kalman method for inverse problems provides a derivative-free optimization method with comparable accuracy to that achieved by traditional least-squares approaches. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that the accuracy is of the same order of magnitude as that achieved by the best approximation. Three examples are used to demonstrate these assertions: inversion of a compact linear operator; inversion of piezometric head to determine hydraulic conductivity in a Darcy model of groundwater flow; and inversion of Eulerian velocity measurements at positive times to determine the initial condition in an incompressible fluid. (paper)

Identification of Serine Conformers by Matrix-Isolation IR Spectroscopy Aided by Near-Infrared Laser Induced Conformational Change, 2D Correlation Analysis, and Quantum Mechanical Anharmonic Computations

Science.gov (United States)

Najbauer, Eszter E.; Bazsó, Gábor; Apóstolo, Rui; Fausto, Rui; Biczysko, Malgorzata; Barone, Vincenzo; Tarczay, György

2018-01-01

The conformers of α-serine were investigated by matrix-isolation IR spectroscopy combined with NIR laser irradiation. This method, aided by 2D correlation analysis, enabled unambiguously grouping the spectral lines to individual conformers. On the basis of comparison of at least nine experimentally observed vibrational transitions of each conformer with empirically scaled (SQM) and anharmonic (GVPT2) computed IR spectra, 6 conformers were identified. In addition, the presence of at least one more conformer in Ar matrix was proved, and a short-lived conformer with a half-live of (3.7±0.5)·103 s in N2 matrix was generated by NIR irradiation. The analysis of the NIR laser induced conversions revealed that the excitation of the stretching overtone of both the side-chain and the carboxylic OH groups can effectively promote conformational changes, but remarkably different paths were observed for the two kinds of excitations. PMID:26201050

Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times

Science.gov (United States)

Hemri, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

2013-10-01

Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical postprocessing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically postprocess ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead times ranging from 1 to 240 h. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the postprocessed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

Replacement between conformity and counter-conformity in consumption decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Chou, Ting-Jui; Chang, En-Chung; Dai, Qi; Wong, Veronica

2013-02-01

This study assessed, in a Chinese context, how self-esteem interacts with perceived similarity and uniqueness to yield cognitive dissonance, and whether the dissonance leads to self-reported conformity or counter-conformity behavior. Participants were 408 respondents from 4 major Chinese cities (M age = 33.0 yr., SD = 4.3; 48% men). Self-perceptions of uniqueness, similarity, cognitive dissonance, self-esteem and need to behave in conformity or counter-conformity were measured. A theoretical model was assessed in four situations, relating the ratings of self-esteem and perceived similarity/uniqueness to the way other people at a wedding were dressed, and the resultant cognitive dissonance and conformity/ counter-conformity behavior. Regardless of high or low self-esteem, all participants reported cognitive dissonance when they were told that they were dressed extremely similarly to or extremely differently from the other people attending the wedding. However, the conforming/counter-conforming strategies used by participants to resolve the cognitive dissonance differed. When encountering dissonance induced by the perceived extreme uniqueness of dress, participants with low self-esteem tended to say they would dress next time so as to conform with the way others were dressed, while those with high self-esteem indicated they would continue their counter-conformity in attire. When encountering dissonance induced by the perceived extreme similarity to others, both those with high and low self-esteem tended to say they would dress in an unorthodox manner to surprise other people in the future.

Spectral properties of embedded Gaussian unitary ensemble of random matrices with Wigner's SU(4) symmetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vyas, Manan; Kota, V.K.B.

2010-01-01

For m fermions in Ω number of single particle orbitals, each fourfold degenerate, we introduce and analyze in detail embedded Gaussian unitary ensemble of random matrices generated by random two-body interactions that are SU(4) scalar [EGUE(2)-SU(4)]. Here the SU(4) algebra corresponds to the Wigner's supermultiplet SU(4) symmetry in nuclei. Embedding algebra for the EGUE(2)-SU(4) ensemble is U(4Ω) contains U(Ω) x SU(4). Exploiting the Wigner-Racah algebra of the embedding algebra, analytical expression for the ensemble average of the product of any two m particle Hamiltonian matrix elements is derived. Using this, formulas for a special class of U(Ω) irreducible representations (irreps) {4 r , p}, p = 0, 1, 2, 3 are derived for the ensemble averaged spectral variances and also for the covariances in energy centroids and spectral variances. On the other hand, simplifying the tabulations of Hecht for SU(Ω) Racah coefficients, numerical calculations are carried out for general U(Ω) irreps. Spectral variances clearly show, by applying Jacquod and Stone prescription, that the EGUE(2)-SU(4) ensemble generates ground state structure just as the quadratic Casimir invariant (C 2 ) of SU(4). This is further corroborated by the calculation of the expectation values of C 2 [SU(4)] and the four periodicity in the ground state energies. Secondly, it is found that the covariances in energy centroids and spectral variances increase in magnitude considerably as we go from EGUE(2) for spinless fermions to EGUE(2) for fermions with spin to EGUE(2)-SU(4) implying that the differences in ensemble and spectral averages grow with increasing symmetry. Also for EGUE(2)-SU(4) there are, unlike for GUE, non-zero cross-correlations in energy centroids and spectral variances defined over spaces with different particle numbers and/or U(Ω) [equivalently SU(4)] irreps. In the dilute limit defined by Ω → ∞, r >> 1 and r/Ω → 0, for the {4 r , p} irreps, we have derived analytical

SASSIE: A program to study intrinsically disordered biological molecules and macromolecular ensembles using experimental scattering restraints

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Joseph E.; Raghunandan, Sindhu; Nanda, Hirsh; Krueger, Susan

2012-02-01

A program to construct ensembles of biomolecular structures that are consistent with experimental scattering data are described. Specifically, we generate an ensemble of biomolecular structures by varying sets of backbone dihedral angles that are then filtered using experimentally determined restraints to rapidly determine structures that have scattering profiles that are consistent with scattering data. We discuss an application of these tools to predict a set of structures for the HIV-1 Gag protein, an intrinsically disordered protein, that are consistent with small-angle neutron scattering experimental data. We have assembled these algorithms into a program called SASSIE for structure generation, visualization, and analysis of intrinsically disordered proteins and other macromolecular ensembles using neutron and X-ray scattering restraints. Program summaryProgram title: SASSIE Catalogue identifier: AEKL_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEKL_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU General Public License v3 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 3 991 624 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 826 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Python, C/C++, Fortran Computer: PC/Mac Operating system: 32- and 64-bit Linux (Ubuntu 10.04, Centos 5.6) and Mac OS X (10.6.6) RAM: 1 GB Classification: 3 External routines: Python 2.6.5, numpy 1.4.0, swig 1.3.40, scipy 0.8.0, Gnuplot-py-1.8, Tcl 8.5, Tk 8.5, Mac installation requires aquaterm 1.0 (or X window system) and Xcode 3 development tools. Nature of problem: Open source software to generate structures of disordered biological molecules that subsequently allow for the comparison of computational and experimental results is limiting the use of scattering resources. Solution method: Starting with an all atom model of a protein, for example, users can input

Binding induced conformational changes of proteins correlate with their intrinsic fluctuations: a case study of antibodies

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Keskin Ozlem

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background How antibodies recognize and bind to antigens can not be totally explained by rigid shape and electrostatic complimentarity models. Alternatively, pre-existing equilibrium hypothesis states that the native state of an antibody is not defined by a single rigid conformation but instead with an ensemble of similar conformations that co-exist at equilibrium. Antigens bind to one of the preferred conformations making this conformation more abundant shifting the equilibrium. Results Here, two antibodies, a germline antibody of 36–65 Fab and a monoclonal antibody, SPE7 are studied in detail to elucidate the mechanism of antibody-antigen recognition and to understand how a single antibody recognizes different antigens. An elastic network model, Anisotropic Network Model (ANM is used in the calculations. Pre-existing equilibrium is not restricted to apply to antibodies. Intrinsic fluctuations of eight proteins, from different classes of proteins, such as enzymes, binding and transport proteins are investigated to test the suitability of the method. The intrinsic fluctuations are compared with the experimentally observed ligand induced conformational changes of these proteins. The results show that the intrinsic fluctuations obtained by theoretical methods correlate with structural changes observed when a ligand is bound to the protein. The decomposition of the total fluctuations serves to identify the different individual modes of motion, ranging from the most cooperative ones involving the overall structure, to the most localized ones. Conclusion Results suggest that the pre-equilibrium concept holds for antibodies and the promiscuity of antibodies can also be explained this hypothesis: a limited number of conformational states driven by intrinsic motions of an antibody might be adequate to bind to different antigens.

Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting for early warning of floods and scheduling of hydropower production

Science.gov (United States)

Solvang Johansen, Stian; Steinsland, Ingelin; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2016-04-01

Running hydrological models with precipitation and temperature ensemble forcing to generate ensembles of streamflow is a commonly used method in operational hydrology. Evaluations of streamflow ensembles have however revealed that the ensembles are biased with respect to both mean and spread. Thus postprocessing of the ensembles is needed in order to improve the forecast skill. The aims of this study is (i) to to evaluate how postprocessing of streamflow ensembles works for Norwegian catchments within different hydrological regimes and to (ii) demonstrate how post processed streamflow ensembles are used operationally by a hydropower producer. These aims were achieved by postprocessing forecasted daily discharge for 10 lead-times for 20 catchments in Norway by using EPS forcing from ECMWF applied the semi-distributed HBV-model dividing each catchment into 10 elevation zones. Statkraft Energi uses forecasts from these catchments for scheduling hydropower production. The catchments represent different hydrological regimes. Some catchments have stable winter condition with winter low flow and a major flood event during spring or early summer caused by snow melting. Others has a more mixed snow-rain regime, often with a secondary flood season during autumn, and in the coastal areas, the stream flow is dominated by rain, and the main flood season is autumn and winter. For post processing, a Bayesian model averaging model (BMA) close to (Kleiber et al 2011) is used. The model creates a predictive PDF that is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias corrected forecasts. The weights are here equal since all ensemble members come from the same model, and thus have the same probability. For modeling streamflow, the gamma distribution is chosen as a predictive PDF. The bias correction parameters and the PDF parameters are estimated using a 30-day sliding window training period. Preliminary results show that the improvement varies between catchments depending

DSR Theories, Conformal Group and Generalized Commutation Relation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leiva, Carlos

2006-01-01

In this paper the relationship of DSR theories and Conformal Group is reviewed. On the other hand, the relation between DSR Magueijo Smolin generators and generalized commutation relations is also shown

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

Designing molecular dynamics simulations to shift populations of the conformational states of calmodulin.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayse Ozlem Aykut

Full Text Available We elucidate the mechanisms that lead to population shifts in the conformational states of calcium-loaded calmodulin (Ca(2+-CaM. We design extensive molecular dynamics simulations to classify the effects that are responsible for adopting occupied conformations available in the ensemble of NMR structures. Electrostatic interactions amongst the different regions of the protein and with its vicinal water are herein mediated by lowering the ionic strength or the pH. Amino acid E31, which is one of the few charged residues whose ionization state is highly sensitive to pH differences in the physiological range, proves to be distinctive in its control of population shifts. E31A mutation at low ionic strength results in a distinct change from an extended to a compact Ca(2+-CaM conformation within tens of nanoseconds, that otherwise occur on the time scales of microseconds. The kinked linker found in this particular compact form is observed in many of the target-bound forms of Ca(2+-CaM, increasing the binding affinity. This mutation is unique in controlling C-lobe dynamics by affecting the fluctuations between the EF-hand motif helices. We also monitor the effect of the ionic strength on the conformational multiplicity of Ca(2+-CaM. By lowering the ionic strength, the tendency of nonspecific anions in water to accumulate near the protein surface increases, especially in the vicinity of the linker. The change in the distribution of ions in the vicinal layer of water allows N- and C- lobes to span a wide variety of relative orientations that are otherwise not observed at physiological ionic strength. E31 protonation restores the conformations associated with physiological environmental conditions even at low ionic strength.

Conformational variation of proteins at room temperature is not dominated by radiation damage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russi, Silvia; González, Ana; Kenner, Lillian R.; Keedy, Daniel A.; Fraser, James S.; Bedem, Henry van den

2017-01-01

Protein crystallography data collection at synchrotrons is routinely carried out at cryogenic temperatures to mitigate radiation damage. Although damage still takes place at 100 K and below, the immobilization of free radicals increases the lifetime of the crystals by approximately 100-fold. Recent studies have shown that flash-cooling decreases the heterogeneity of the conformational ensemble and can hide important functional mechanisms from observation. These discoveries have motivated increasing numbers of experiments to be carried out at room temperature. However, the trade-offs between increased risk of radiation damage and increased observation of alternative conformations at room temperature relative to cryogenic temperature have not been examined. A considerable amount of effort has previously been spent studying radiation damage at cryo-temperatures, but the relevance of these studies to room temperature diffraction is not well understood. Here, the effects of radiation damage on the conformational landscapes of three different proteins (T. danielli thaumatin, hen egg-white lysozyme and human cyclophilin A) at room (278 K) and cryogenic (100 K) temperatures are investigated. Increasingly damaged datasets were collected at each temperature, up to a maximum dose of the order of 10 7 Gy at 100 K and 10 5 Gy at 278 K. Although it was not possible to discern a clear trend between damage and multiple conformations at either temperature, it was observed that disorder, monitored by B-factor-dependent crystallographic order parameters, increased with higher absorbed dose for the three proteins at 100 K. At 278 K, however, the total increase in this disorder was only statistically significant for thaumatin. A correlation between specific radiation damage affecting side chains and the amount of disorder was not observed. Lastly, this analysis suggests that elevated conformational heterogeneity in crystal structures at room temperature is observed despite radiation

Radial electric field and rotation of the ensemble of plasma particles in tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sorokina, E. A.; Ilgisonis, V. I.

2012-01-01

The velocity of macroscopic rotation of an ensemble of charged particles in a tokamak in the presence of an electric field has been calculated in a collisionless approximation. It is shown that the velocity of toroidal rotation does not reduce to a local velocity of electric drift and has opposite directions on the inner and outer sides of the torus. This result is supplemented by an analysis of the trajectories of motion of individual particles in the ensemble, which shows that the passing and trapped particles of the ensemble acquire in the electric field, on the average, different toroidal velocities. For the trapped particles, this velocity is equal to that of electric drift in the poloidal magnetic field, while the velocity of passing particles is significantly different. It is shown that, although the electric-field-induced shift of the boundaries between trapped and passing particles in the phase space depends on the particle mass and charge and is, in the general case, asymmetric, this does not lead to current generation.

Bidirectional Modulation of Intrinsic Excitability in Rat Prelimbic Cortex Neuronal Ensembles and Non-Ensembles after Operant Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitaker, Leslie R; Warren, Brandon L; Venniro, Marco; Harte, Tyler C; McPherson, Kylie B; Beidel, Jennifer; Bossert, Jennifer M; Shaham, Yavin; Bonci, Antonello; Hope, Bruce T

2017-09-06

Learned associations between environmental stimuli and rewards drive goal-directed learning and motivated behavior. These memories are thought to be encoded by alterations within specific patterns of sparsely distributed neurons called neuronal ensembles that are activated selectively by reward-predictive stimuli. Here, we use the Fos promoter to identify strongly activated neuronal ensembles in rat prelimbic cortex (PLC) and assess altered intrinsic excitability after 10 d of operant food self-administration training (1 h/d). First, we used the Daun02 inactivation procedure in male FosLacZ-transgenic rats to ablate selectively Fos-expressing PLC neurons that were active during operant food self-administration. Selective ablation of these neurons decreased food seeking. We then used male FosGFP-transgenic rats to assess selective alterations of intrinsic excitability in Fos-expressing neuronal ensembles (FosGFP + ) that were activated during food self-administration and compared these with alterations in less activated non-ensemble neurons (FosGFP - ). Using whole-cell recordings of layer V pyramidal neurons in an ex vivo brain slice preparation, we found that operant self-administration increased excitability of FosGFP + neurons and decreased excitability of FosGFP - neurons. Increased excitability of FosGFP + neurons was driven by increased steady-state input resistance. Decreased excitability of FosGFP - neurons was driven by increased contribution of small-conductance calcium-activated potassium (SK) channels. Injections of the specific SK channel antagonist apamin into PLC increased Fos expression but had no effect on food seeking. Overall, operant learning increased intrinsic excitability of PLC Fos-expressing neuronal ensembles that play a role in food seeking but decreased intrinsic excitability of Fos - non-ensembles. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Prefrontal cortex activity plays a critical role in operant learning, but the underlying cellular mechanisms are

Ion mobility-mass spectrometry reveals conformational flexibility in the deubiquitinating enzyme USP5.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Daniel; Layfield, Robert; Oldham, Neil J

2015-08-01

Many proteins exhibit conformation flexibility as part of their biological function, whether through the presence of a series of well-defined states or by the existence of intrinsic disorder. Ion mobility spectrometry, in combination with MS (IM-MS), offers a rapid and sensitive means of probing ensembles of protein structures through measurement of gas-phase collisional cross sections. We have applied IM-MS analysis to the multidomain deubiquitinating enzyme ubiquitin specific protease 5 (USP5), which is believed to exhibit significant conformational flexibility. Native ESI-MS measurement of the 94-kDa USP5 revealed two distinct charge-state distributions: [M + 17H](+) to [M + 21H](+) and [M + 24H](+) to [M + 29H](+). The collisional cross sections of these ions revealed clear groupings of 52 ± 4 nm(2) for the lower charges and 66 ± 6 nm(2) for the higher charges. Molecular dynamics simulation of a compact form of USP5, based on a crystal structure, produced structures of 53-54 nm(2) following 2 ns in the gas phase, while simulation of an extended form (based on small-angle X-ray scattering data) led to structures of 64 nm(2). These data demonstrate that IM-MS is a valuable tool in studying proteins with different discrete conformational states. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A Machine Learning Ensemble Classifier for Early Prediction of Diabetic Retinopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

S K, Somasundaram; P, Alli

2017-11-09

The main complication of diabetes is Diabetic retinopathy (DR), retinal vascular disease and it leads to the blindness. Regular screening for early DR disease detection is considered as an intensive labor and resource oriented task. Therefore, automatic detection of DR diseases is performed only by using the computational technique is the great solution. An automatic method is more reliable to determine the presence of an abnormality in Fundus images (FI) but, the classification process is poorly performed. Recently, few research works have been designed for analyzing texture discrimination capacity in FI to distinguish the healthy images. However, the feature extraction (FE) process was not performed well, due to the high dimensionality. Therefore, to identify retinal features for DR disease diagnosis and early detection using Machine Learning and Ensemble Classification method, called, Machine Learning Bagging Ensemble Classifier (ML-BEC) is designed. The ML-BEC method comprises of two stages. The first stage in ML-BEC method comprises extraction of the candidate objects from Retinal Images (RI). The candidate objects or the features for DR disease diagnosis include blood vessels, optic nerve, neural tissue, neuroretinal rim, optic disc size, thickness and variance. These features are initially extracted by applying Machine Learning technique called, t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE). Besides, t-SNE generates a probability distribution across high-dimensional images where the images are separated into similar and dissimilar pairs. Then, t-SNE describes a similar probability distribution across the points in the low-dimensional map. This lessens the Kullback-Leibler divergence among two distributions regarding the locations of the points on the map. The second stage comprises of application of ensemble classifiers to the extracted features for providing accurate analysis of digital FI using machine learning. In this stage, an automatic detection

Conformational responses to changes in the state of ionization of titrable groups in proteins

Science.gov (United States)

Richman, Daniel Eric

-bond) breaking on at least the mus timescale, and segmental unfolding were detected near titrating groups as pH decreased into the acidic range. The study identified local structural features and stabilities that modulate the magnitude of electrostatic effects. The data demonstrate that computational approaches to pK a calculations for surface groups must account for local fluctuations spanning a wide range of timescales. A comparative NMR spectroscopy study with the L25K and L125K variants of SNase, each with a Lys residue buried in the hydrophobic interior of the protein, determined locations, timescales, and amplitudes of backbone conformational reorganization coupled with ionization of the buried Lys residues. The L25K protein exhibited an ensemble of local fluctuations of the beta barrel in the hundreds of mus timescale and an ensemble of subglobally unfolded beta-barrel states in the hundreds of ms timescale with strong pH dependence. The L125K protein exhibited fluctuations of the helix around site 125 in the mus timescale, with negligible pH dependence. These data illustrate the diverse timescales and local structural properties of conformational reorganization coupled to ionization of buried groups, and the challenge to structure-based electrostatics calculations, which must capture these long-timescale processes.

Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xian-Zhi

2016-01-01

Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula. (paper)

Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xian-Zhi

2016-02-01

Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula.

Conformal invariance and conserved quantities of Appell systems under second-class Mei symmetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yi-Ping, Luo; Jing-Li, Fu

2010-01-01

In this paper we introduce the new concept of the conformal invariance and the conserved quantities for Appell systems under second-class Mei symmetry. The one-parameter infinitesimal transformation group and infinitesimal transformation vector of generator are described in detail. The conformal factor in the determining equations under second-class Mei symmetry is found. The relationship between Appell system's conformal invariance and Mei symmetry are discussed. And Appell system's conformal invariance under second-class Mei symmetry may lead to corresponding Hojman conserved quantities when the conformal invariance satisfies some conditions. Lastly, an example is provided to illustrate the application of the result. (general)

Ensemble inequivalence: Landau theory and the ABC model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, O; Mukamel, D

2012-01-01

It is well known that systems with long-range interactions may exhibit different phase diagrams when studied within two different ensembles. In many of the previously studied examples of ensemble inequivalence, the phase diagrams differ only when the transition in one of the ensembles is first order. By contrast, in a recent study of a generalized ABC model, the canonical and grand-canonical ensembles of the model were shown to differ even when they both exhibit a continuous transition. Here we show that the order of the transition where ensemble inequivalence may occur is related to the symmetry properties of the order parameter associated with the transition. This is done by analyzing the Landau expansion of a generic model with long-range interactions. The conclusions drawn from the generic analysis are demonstrated for the ABC model by explicit calculation of its Landau expansion. (paper)

Regionalization of post-processed ensemble runoff forecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. O. Skøien

2016-05-01

Full Text Available For many years, meteorological models have been run with perturbated initial conditions or parameters to produce ensemble forecasts that are used as a proxy of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, the ensembles are usually both biased (the mean is systematically too high or too low, compared with the observed weather, and has dispersion errors (the ensemble variance indicates a too low or too high confidence in the forecast, compared with the observed weather. The ensembles are therefore commonly post-processed to correct for these shortcomings. Here we look at one of these techniques, referred to as Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS (Gneiting et al., 2005. Originally, the post-processing parameters were identified as a fixed set of parameters for a region. The application of our work is the European Flood Awareness System (http://www.efas.eu, where a distributed model is run with meteorological ensembles as input. We are therefore dealing with a considerably larger data set than previous analyses. We also want to regionalize the parameters themselves for other locations than the calibration gauges. The post-processing parameters are therefore estimated for each calibration station, but with a spatial penalty for deviations from neighbouring stations, depending on the expected semivariance between the calibration catchment and these stations. The estimated post-processed parameters can then be used for regionalization of the postprocessing parameters also for uncalibrated locations using top-kriging in the rtop-package (Skøien et al., 2006, 2014. We will show results from cross-validation of the methodology and although our interest is mainly in identifying exceedance probabilities for certain return levels, we will also show how the rtop package can be used for creating a set of post-processed ensembles through simulations.

A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

KAUST Repository

Altaf, Muhammad

2014-08-01

This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

KAUST Repository

Altaf, Muhammad; Butler, T.; Mayo, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Heemink, A. W.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2014-01-01

This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

HIGH-RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC ENSEMBLE MODELING AT SRNL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buckley, R.; Werth, D.; Chiswell, S.; Etherton, B.

2011-05-10

The High-Resolution Mid-Atlantic Forecasting Ensemble (HME) is a federated effort to improve operational forecasts related to precipitation, convection and boundary layer evolution, and fire weather utilizing data and computing resources from a diverse group of cooperating institutions in order to create a mesoscale ensemble from independent members. Collaborating organizations involved in the project include universities, National Weather Service offices, and national laboratories, including the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). The ensemble system is produced from an overlapping numerical weather prediction model domain and parameter subsets provided by each contributing member. The coordination, synthesis, and dissemination of the ensemble information are performed by the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. This paper discusses background related to the HME effort, SRNL participation, and example results available from the RENCI website.

Conformal house

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ryttov, Thomas Aaby; Sannino, Francesco

2010-01-01

fixed point. As a consistency check we recover the previously investigated bounds of the conformal windows when restricting to a single matter representation. The earlier conformal windows can be imagined to be part now of the new conformal house. We predict the nonperturbative anomalous dimensions...... at the infrared fixed points. We further investigate the effects of adding mass terms to the condensates on the conformal house chiral dynamics and construct the simplest instanton induced effective Lagrangian terms...

Relative effects of statistical preprocessing and postprocessing on a regional hydrological ensemble prediction system

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Sanjib; Siddique, Ridwan; Reed, Seann; Ahnert, Peter; Mendoza, Pablo; Mejia, Alfonso

2018-03-01

The relative roles of statistical weather preprocessing and streamflow postprocessing in hydrological ensemble forecasting at short- to medium-range forecast lead times (day 1-7) are investigated. For this purpose, a regional hydrologic ensemble prediction system (RHEPS) is developed and implemented. The RHEPS is comprised of the following components: (i) hydrometeorological observations (multisensor precipitation estimates, gridded surface temperature, and gauged streamflow); (ii) weather ensemble forecasts (precipitation and near-surface temperature) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 11-member Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast version 2 (GEFSRv2); (iii) NOAA's Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM); (iv) heteroscedastic censored logistic regression (HCLR) as the statistical preprocessor; (v) two statistical postprocessors, an autoregressive model with a single exogenous variable (ARX(1,1)) and quantile regression (QR); and (vi) a comprehensive verification strategy. To implement the RHEPS, 1 to 7 days weather forecasts from the GEFSRv2 are used to force HL-RDHM and generate raw ensemble streamflow forecasts. Forecasting experiments are conducted in four nested basins in the US Middle Atlantic region, ranging in size from 381 to 12 362 km2. Results show that the HCLR preprocessed ensemble precipitation forecasts have greater skill than the raw forecasts. These improvements are more noticeable in the warm season at the longer lead times (> 3 days). Both postprocessors, ARX(1,1) and QR, show gains in skill relative to the raw ensemble streamflow forecasts, particularly in the cool season, but QR outperforms ARX(1,1). The scenarios that implement preprocessing and postprocessing separately tend to perform similarly, although the postprocessing-alone scenario is often more effective. The scenario involving both preprocessing and postprocessing consistently outperforms the other scenarios. In some cases

Simulated tempering distributed replica sampling: A practical guide to enhanced conformational sampling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rauscher, Sarah; Pomes, Regis, E-mail: pomes@sickkids.ca

2010-11-01

Simulated tempering distributed replica sampling (STDR) is a generalized-ensemble method designed specifically for simulations of large molecular systems on shared and heterogeneous computing platforms [Rauscher, Neale and Pomes (2009) J. Chem. Theor. Comput. 5, 2640]. The STDR algorithm consists of an alternation of two steps: (1) a short molecular dynamics (MD) simulation; and (2) a stochastic temperature jump. Repeating these steps thousands of times results in a random walk in temperature, which allows the system to overcome energetic barriers, thereby enhancing conformational sampling. The aim of the present paper is to provide a practical guide to applying STDR to complex biomolecular systems. We discuss the details of our STDR implementation, which is a highly-parallel algorithm designed to maximize computational efficiency while simultaneously minimizing network communication and data storage requirements. Using a 35-residue disordered peptide in explicit water as a test system, we characterize the efficiency of the STDR algorithm with respect to both diffusion in temperature space and statistical convergence of structural properties. Importantly, we show that STDR provides a dramatic enhancement of conformational sampling compared to a canonical MD simulation.

The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, A. W.; Thielen, J.; Pappenberger, F.; Schaake, J. C.; Hartman, R. K.

2012-12-01

The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment was established in March, 2004, at a workshop hosted by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). With support from the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the European Commission (EC), the HEPEX goal was to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities together to advance the understanding and adoption of hydrological ensemble forecasts for decision support in emergency management and water resources sectors. The strategy to meet this goal includes meetings that connect the user, forecast producer and research communities to exchange ideas, data and methods; the coordination of experiments to address specific challenges; and the formation of testbeds to facilitate shared experimentation. HEPEX has organized about a dozen international workshops, as well as sessions at scientific meetings (including AMS, AGU and EGU) and special issues of scientific journals where workshop results have been published. Today, the HEPEX mission is to demonstrate the added value of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) for emergency management and water resources sectors to make decisions that have important consequences for economy, public health, safety, and the environment. HEPEX is now organised around six major themes that represent core elements of a hydrologic ensemble prediction enterprise: input and pre-processing, ensemble techniques, data assimilation, post-processing, verification, and communication and use in decision making. This poster presents an overview of recent and planned HEPEX activities, highlighting case studies that exemplify the focus and objectives of HEPEX.

Towards an Australian ensemble streamflow forecasting system for flood prediction and water management

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, J.; David, R. E.; Wang, Q.; Li, M.; Shrestha, D. L.

2016-12-01

Flood forecasting in Australia has historically relied on deterministic forecasting models run only when floods are imminent, with considerable forecaster input and interpretation. These now co-existed with a continually available 7-day streamflow forecasting service (also deterministic) aimed at operational water management applications such as environmental flow releases. The 7-day service is not optimised for flood prediction. We describe progress on developing a system for ensemble streamflow forecasting that is suitable for both flood prediction and water management applications. Precipitation uncertainty is handled through post-processing of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output with a Bayesian rainfall post-processor (RPP). The RPP corrects biases, downscales NWP output, and produces reliable ensemble spread. Ensemble precipitation forecasts are used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Uncertainty in precipitation forecasts is insufficient to reliably describe streamflow forecast uncertainty, particularly at shorter lead-times. We characterise hydrological prediction uncertainty separately with a 4-stage error model. The error model relies on data transformation to ensure residuals are homoscedastic and symmetrically distributed. To ensure streamflow forecasts are accurate and reliable, the residuals are modelled using a mixture-Gaussian distribution with distinct parameters for the rising and falling limbs of the forecast hydrograph. In a case study of the Murray River in south-eastern Australia, we show ensemble predictions of floods generally have lower errors than deterministic forecasting methods. We also discuss some of the challenges in operationalising short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts in Australia, including meeting the needs for accurate predictions across all flow ranges and comparing forecasts generated by event and continuous hydrological models.

Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

2015-01-01

Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...... and estimating parameters requires a much larger ensemble size than just assimilating groundwater head observations. However, the required ensemble size can be greatly reduced with the use of adaptive localization, which by far outperforms distance-based localization. The study is conducted using synthetic data...

Exciplex ensemble modulated by excitation mode in intramolecular charge-transfer dyad: effects of temperature, solvent polarity, and wavelength on photochemistry and photophysics of tethered naphthalene-dicyanoethene system.

Science.gov (United States)

Aoki, Yoshiaki; Matsuki, Nobuo; Mori, Tadashi; Ikeda, Hiroshi; Inoue, Yoshihisa

2014-09-19

Solvent, temperature, and excitation wavelength significantly affected the photochemical outcomes of a naphthalene-dicyanoethene system tethered by different number (n) of methylene groups (1-3). The effect of irradiation wavelength was almost negligible for 2a but pronounced for 3a. The temperature dependence and theoretical calculations indicated the diversity of exciplex conformations, an ensemble of which can be effectively altered by changing excitation wavelength to eventually switch the regioselectivity of photoreactions.

Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

Science.gov (United States)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

2017-06-01

Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.Plain Language SummaryDecadal predictions aim to predict the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. The ocean memory due to its heat capacity holds big potential skill. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions. Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions to trigger the famous butterfly effect results in an ensemble. Instead of evaluating one prediction, but the whole ensemble with its

Ensemble-based Probabilistic Forecasting at Horns Rev

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

2009-01-01

forecasting methodology. In a first stage, ensemble forecasts of meteorological variables are converted to power through a suitable power curve model. This modelemploys local polynomial regression, and is adoptively estimated with an orthogonal fitting method. The obtained ensemble forecasts of wind power...

DroidEnsemble: Detecting Android Malicious Applications with Ensemble of String and Structural Static Features

KAUST Repository

Wang, Wei

2018-05-11

Android platform has dominated the Operating System of mobile devices. However, the dramatic increase of Android malicious applications (malapps) has caused serious software failures to Android system and posed a great threat to users. The effective detection of Android malapps has thus become an emerging yet crucial issue. Characterizing the behaviors of Android applications (apps) is essential to detecting malapps. Most existing work on detecting Android malapps was mainly based on string static features such as permissions and API usage extracted from apps. There also exists work on the detection of Android malapps with structural features, such as Control Flow Graph (CFG) and Data Flow Graph (DFG). As Android malapps have become increasingly polymorphic and sophisticated, using only one type of static features may result in false negatives. In this work, we propose DroidEnsemble that takes advantages of both string features and structural features to systematically and comprehensively characterize the static behaviors of Android apps and thus build a more accurate detection model for the detection of Android malapps. We extract each app’s string features, including permissions, hardware features, filter intents, restricted API calls, used permissions, code patterns, as well as structural features like function call graph. We then use three machine learning algorithms, namely, Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) and Random Forest (RF), to evaluate the performance of these two types of features and of their ensemble. In the experiments, We evaluate our methods and models with 1386 benign apps and 1296 malapps. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of DroidEnsemble. It achieves the detection accuracy as 95.8% with only string features and as 90.68% with only structural features. DroidEnsemble reaches the detection accuracy as 98.4% with the ensemble of both types of features, reducing 9 false positives and 12 false

Examining dynamic interactions among experimental factors influencing hydrologic data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Cai, X. M.; Ancell, B. C.; Fan, Y. R.

2017-11-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is recognized as a powerful data assimilation technique that generates an ensemble of model variables through stochastic perturbations of forcing data and observations. However, relatively little guidance exists with regard to the proper specification of the magnitude of the perturbation and the ensemble size, posing a significant challenge in optimally implementing the EnKF. This paper presents a robust data assimilation system (RDAS), in which a multi-factorial design of the EnKF experiments is first proposed for hydrologic ensemble predictions. A multi-way analysis of variance is then used to examine potential interactions among factors affecting the EnKF experiments, achieving optimality of the RDAS with maximized performance of hydrologic predictions. The RDAS is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed which is the most representative watershed in China's Three Gorges Reservoir region to demonstrate its validity and applicability. Results reveal that the pairwise interaction between perturbed precipitation and streamflow observations has the most significant impact on the performance of the EnKF system, and their interactions vary dynamically across different settings of the ensemble size and the evapotranspiration perturbation. In addition, the interactions among experimental factors vary greatly in magnitude and direction depending on different statistical metrics for model evaluation including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the Box-Cox transformed root-mean-square error. It is thus necessary to test various evaluation metrics in order to enhance the robustness of hydrologic prediction systems.

Ensemble Kalman filter for the reconstruction of the Earth's mantle circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Bocher, Marie; Fournier, Alexandre; Coltice, Nicolas

2018-02-01

Recent advances in mantle convection modeling led to the release of a new generation of convection codes, able to self-consistently generate plate-like tectonics at their surface. Those models physically link mantle dynamics to surface tectonics. Combined with plate tectonic reconstructions, they have the potential to produce a new generation of mantle circulation models that use data assimilation methods and where uncertainties in plate tectonic reconstructions are taken into account. We provided a proof of this concept by applying a suboptimal Kalman filter to the reconstruction of mantle circulation (Bocher et al., 2016). Here, we propose to go one step further and apply the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to this problem. The EnKF is a sequential Monte Carlo method particularly adapted to solve high-dimensional data assimilation problems with nonlinear dynamics. We tested the EnKF using synthetic observations consisting of surface velocity and heat flow measurements on a 2-D-spherical annulus model and compared it with the method developed previously. The EnKF performs on average better and is more stable than the former method. Less than 300 ensemble members are sufficient to reconstruct an evolution. We use covariance adaptive inflation and localization to correct for sampling errors. We show that the EnKF results are robust over a wide range of covariance localization parameters. The reconstruction is associated with an estimation of the error, and provides valuable information on where the reconstruction is to be trusted or not.

Conformation-independent structural comparison of macromolecules with ProSMART

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicholls, Robert A.; Fischer, Marcus; McNicholas, Stuart; Murshudov, Garib N.

2014-01-01

The Procrustes Structural Matching Alignment and Restraints Tool (ProSMART) has been developed to allow local comparative structural analyses independent of the global conformations and sequence homology of the compared macromolecules. This allows quick and intuitive visualization of the conservation of backbone and side-chain conformations, providing complementary information to existing methods. The identification and exploration of (dis)similarities between macromolecular structures can help to gain biological insight, for instance when visualizing or quantifying the response of a protein to ligand binding. Obtaining a residue alignment between compared structures is often a prerequisite for such comparative analysis. If the conformational change of the protein is dramatic, conventional alignment methods may struggle to provide an intuitive solution for straightforward analysis. To make such analyses more accessible, the Procrustes Structural Matching Alignment and Restraints Tool (ProSMART) has been developed, which achieves a conformation-independent structural alignment, as well as providing such additional functionalities as the generation of restraints for use in the refinement of macromolecular models. Sensible comparison of protein (or DNA/RNA) structures in the presence of conformational changes is achieved by enforcing neither chain nor domain rigidity. The visualization of results is facilitated by popular molecular-graphics software such as CCP4mg and PyMOL, providing intuitive feedback regarding structural conservation and subtle dissimilarities between close homologues that can otherwise be hard to identify. Automatically generated colour schemes corresponding to various residue-based scores are provided, which allow the assessment of the conservation of backbone and side-chain conformations relative to the local coordinate frame. Structural comparison tools such as ProSMART can help to break the complexity that accompanies the constantly growing

Conformation-independent structural comparison of macromolecules with ProSMART

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nicholls, Robert A., E-mail: nicholls@mrc-lmb.cam.ac.uk [MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Francis Crick Avenue, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge CB2 0QH (United Kingdom); Fischer, Marcus [University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158 (United States); McNicholas, Stuart [University of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD (United Kingdom); Murshudov, Garib N. [MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Francis Crick Avenue, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge CB2 0QH (United Kingdom)

2014-09-01

The Procrustes Structural Matching Alignment and Restraints Tool (ProSMART) has been developed to allow local comparative structural analyses independent of the global conformations and sequence homology of the compared macromolecules. This allows quick and intuitive visualization of the conservation of backbone and side-chain conformations, providing complementary information to existing methods. The identification and exploration of (dis)similarities between macromolecular structures can help to gain biological insight, for instance when visualizing or quantifying the response of a protein to ligand binding. Obtaining a residue alignment between compared structures is often a prerequisite for such comparative analysis. If the conformational change of the protein is dramatic, conventional alignment methods may struggle to provide an intuitive solution for straightforward analysis. To make such analyses more accessible, the Procrustes Structural Matching Alignment and Restraints Tool (ProSMART) has been developed, which achieves a conformation-independent structural alignment, as well as providing such additional functionalities as the generation of restraints for use in the refinement of macromolecular models. Sensible comparison of protein (or DNA/RNA) structures in the presence of conformational changes is achieved by enforcing neither chain nor domain rigidity. The visualization of results is facilitated by popular molecular-graphics software such as CCP4mg and PyMOL, providing intuitive feedback regarding structural conservation and subtle dissimilarities between close homologues that can otherwise be hard to identify. Automatically generated colour schemes corresponding to various residue-based scores are provided, which allow the assessment of the conservation of backbone and side-chain conformations relative to the local coordinate frame. Structural comparison tools such as ProSMART can help to break the complexity that accompanies the constantly growing

q-deformed conformal and Poincare algebras on quantum 4-spinors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobayashi, Tatsuo; Uematsu, Tsuneo

1993-01-01

We investigate quantum deformation of conformal algebras by constructing the quantum space for sl q (4). The differential calculus on the quantum space and the action of the quantum generators are studied. We derive deformed su(2, 2) algebra from the deformed sl(4) algebra using the quantum 4-spinor and its conjugate spinor. The quantum 6-vector in so q (4, 2) is constructed as a tensor product of two sets of 4-spinors. We obtain the q-deformed conformal algebra with the suitable assignment of the generators which satisfy the reality condition. The deformed Poincare algebra is derived through a contraction procedure. (orig.)

Crossover ensembles of random matrices and skew-orthogonal polynomials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, Santosh; Pandey, Akhilesh

2011-01-01

Highlights: → We study crossover ensembles of Jacobi family of random matrices. → We consider correlations for orthogonal-unitary and symplectic-unitary crossovers. → We use the method of skew-orthogonal polynomials and quaternion determinants. → We prove universality of spectral correlations in crossover ensembles. → We discuss applications to quantum conductance and communication theory problems. - Abstract: In a recent paper (S. Kumar, A. Pandey, Phys. Rev. E, 79, 2009, p. 026211) we considered Jacobi family (including Laguerre and Gaussian cases) of random matrix ensembles and reported exact solutions of crossover problems involving time-reversal symmetry breaking. In the present paper we give details of the work. We start with Dyson's Brownian motion description of random matrix ensembles and obtain universal hierarchic relations among the unfolded correlation functions. For arbitrary dimensions we derive the joint probability density (jpd) of eigenvalues for all transitions leading to unitary ensembles as equilibrium ensembles. We focus on the orthogonal-unitary and symplectic-unitary crossovers and give generic expressions for jpd of eigenvalues, two-point kernels and n-level correlation functions. This involves generalization of the theory of skew-orthogonal polynomials to crossover ensembles. We also consider crossovers in the circular ensembles to show the generality of our method. In the large dimensionality limit, correlations in spectra with arbitrary initial density are shown to be universal when expressed in terms of a rescaled symmetry breaking parameter. Applications of our crossover results to communication theory and quantum conductance problems are also briefly discussed.

Representing Color Ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Chetverikov, Andrey; Campana, Gianluca; Kristjánsson, Árni

2017-10-01

Colors are rarely uniform, yet little is known about how people represent color distributions. We introduce a new method for studying color ensembles based on intertrial learning in visual search. Participants looked for an oddly colored diamond among diamonds with colors taken from either uniform or Gaussian color distributions. On test trials, the targets had various distances in feature space from the mean of the preceding distractor color distribution. Targets on test trials therefore served as probes into probabilistic representations of distractor colors. Test-trial response times revealed a striking similarity between the physical distribution of colors and their internal representations. The results demonstrate that the visual system represents color ensembles in a more detailed way than previously thought, coding not only mean and variance but, most surprisingly, the actual shape (uniform or Gaussian) of the distribution of colors in the environment.

Efficient Kernel-Based Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filtering

KAUST Repository

Liu, Bo

2015-11-11

We consider the Bayesian filtering problem for data assimilation following the kernel-based ensemble Gaussian-mixture filtering (EnGMF) approach introduced by Anderson and Anderson (1999). In this approach, the posterior distribution of the system state is propagated with the model using the ensemble Monte Carlo method, providing a forecast ensemble that is then used to construct a prior Gaussian-mixture (GM) based on the kernel density estimator. This results in two update steps: a Kalman filter (KF)-like update of the ensemble members and a particle filter (PF)-like update of the weights, followed by a resampling step to start a new forecast cycle. After formulating EnGMF for any observational operator, we analyze the influence of the bandwidth parameter of the kernel function on the covariance of the posterior distribution. We then focus on two aspects: i) the efficient implementation of EnGMF with (relatively) small ensembles, where we propose a new deterministic resampling strategy preserving the first two moments of the posterior GM to limit the sampling error; and ii) the analysis of the effect of the bandwidth parameter on contributions of KF and PF updates and on the weights variance. Numerical results using the Lorenz-96 model are presented to assess the behavior of EnGMF with deterministic resampling, study its sensitivity to different parameters and settings, and evaluate its performance against ensemble KFs. The proposed EnGMF approach with deterministic resampling suggests improved estimates in all tested scenarios, and is shown to require less localization and to be less sensitive to the choice of filtering parameters.

Isolation of monoclonal antibodies with predetermined conformational epitope specificity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton M Sholukh

Full Text Available Existing technologies allow isolating antigen-specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs from B cells. We devised a direct approach to isolate mAbs with predetermined conformational epitope specificity, using epitope mimetics (mimotopes that reflect the three-dimensional structure of given antigen subdomains. We performed differential biopanning using bacteriophages encoding random peptide libraries and polyclonal antibodies (Abs that had been affinity-purified with either native or denatured antigen. This strategy yielded conformational mimotopes. We then generated mimotope-fluorescent protein fusions, which were used as baits to isolate single memory B cells from rhesus monkeys (RMs. To amplify RM immunoglobulin variable regions, we developed RM-specific PCR primers and generated chimeric simian-human mAbs with predicted epitope specificity. We established proof-of-concept of our strategy by isolating mAbs targeting the conformational V3 loop crown of HIV Env; the new mAbs cross-neutralized viruses of different clades. The novel technology allows isolating mAbs from RMs or other hosts given experimental immunogens or infectious agents.

Design ensemble machine learning model for breast cancer diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, Sheau-Ling; Hsieh, Sung-Huai; Cheng, Po-Hsun; Chen, Chi-Huang; Hsu, Kai-Ping; Lee, I-Shun; Wang, Zhenyu; Lai, Feipei

2012-10-01

In this paper, we classify the breast cancer of medical diagnostic data. Information gain has been adapted for feature selections. Neural fuzzy (NF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), quadratic classifier (QC), each single model scheme as well as their associated, ensemble ones have been developed for classifications. In addition, a combined ensemble model with these three schemes has been constructed for further validations. The experimental results indicate that the ensemble learning performs better than individual single ones. Moreover, the combined ensemble model illustrates the highest accuracy of classifications for the breast cancer among all models.

Extension of the GHJW theorem for operator ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Jeong Woon; Hong, Dowon; Chang, Ku-Young; Chi, Dong Pyo; Lee, Soojoon

2011-01-01

The Gisin-Hughston-Jozsa-Wootters theorem plays an important role in analyzing various theories about quantum information, quantum communication, and quantum cryptography. It means that any purifications on the extended system which yield indistinguishable state ensembles on their subsystem should have a specific local unitary relation. In this Letter, we show that the local relation is also established even when the indistinguishability of state ensembles is extended to that of operator ensembles.

Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Ziehmann

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF temperature and wind speed ensemble forecasts at 30 German stations. The results indicate that the population of the ensemble mode provides useful information for the uncertainty in temperature forecasts. The ensemble entropy is a similar good measure. This is not true for the spread if it is simply calculated as the variance of the ensemble members with respect to the ensemble mean. The number of clusters in the C regions is almost unrelated to the local skill. For wind forecasts, the results are less promising.

Exploring structural variability in X-ray crystallographic models using protein local optimization by torsion-angle sampling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knight, Jennifer L.; Zhou, Zhiyong; Gallicchio, Emilio; Himmel, Daniel M.; Friesner, Richard A.; Arnold, Eddy; Levy, Ronald M.

2008-01-01

Torsion-angle sampling, as implemented in the Protein Local Optimization Program (PLOP), is used to generate multiple structurally variable single-conformer models which are in good agreement with X-ray data. An ensemble-refinement approach to differentiate between positional uncertainty and conformational heterogeneity is proposed. Modeling structural variability is critical for understanding protein function and for modeling reliable targets for in silico docking experiments. Because of the time-intensive nature of manual X-ray crystallographic refinement, automated refinement methods that thoroughly explore conformational space are essential for the systematic construction of structurally variable models. Using five proteins spanning resolutions of 1.0–2.8 Å, it is demonstrated how torsion-angle sampling of backbone and side-chain libraries with filtering against both the chemical energy, using a modern effective potential, and the electron density, coupled with minimization of a reciprocal-space X-ray target function, can generate multiple structurally variable models which fit the X-ray data well. Torsion-angle sampling as implemented in the Protein Local Optimization Program (PLOP) has been used in this work. Models with the lowest R free values are obtained when electrostatic and implicit solvation terms are included in the effective potential. HIV-1 protease, calmodulin and SUMO-conjugating enzyme illustrate how variability in the ensemble of structures captures structural variability that is observed across multiple crystal structures and is linked to functional flexibility at hinge regions and binding interfaces. An ensemble-refinement procedure is proposed to differentiate between variability that is a consequence of physical conformational heterogeneity and that which reflects uncertainty in the atomic coordinates

An artificial neural network ensemble model for estimating global solar radiation from Meteosat satellite images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linares-Rodriguez, Alvaro; Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio; Pozo-Vazquez, David; Tovar-Pescador, Joaquin

2013-01-01

An optimized artificial neural network ensemble model is built to estimate daily global solar radiation over large areas. The model uses clear-sky estimates and satellite images as input variables. Unlike most studies using satellite imagery based on visible channels, our model also exploits all information within infrared channels of the Meteosat 9 satellite. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize selection of model inputs, for which twelve are selected – eleven 3-km Meteosat 9 channels and one clear-sky term. The model is validated in Andalusia (Spain) from January 2008 through December 2008. Measured data from 83 stations across the region are used, 65 for training and 18 independent ones for testing the model. At the latter stations, the ensemble model yields an overall root mean square error of 6.74% and correlation coefficient of 99%; the generated estimates are relatively accurate and errors spatially uniform. The model yields reliable results even on cloudy days, improving on current models based on satellite imagery. - Highlights: • Daily solar radiation data are generated using an artificial neural network ensemble. • Eleven Meteosat channels observations and a clear sky term are used as model inputs. • Model exploits all information within infrared Meteosat channels. • Measured data for a year from 83 ground stations are used. • The proposed approach has better performance than existing models on daily basis

Creating ensembles of decision trees through sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Kamath, Chandrika; Cantu-Paz, Erick

2005-08-30

A system for decision tree ensembles that includes a module to read the data, a module to sort the data, a module to evaluate a potential split of the data according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, a module to split the data, and a module to combine multiple decision trees in ensembles. The decision tree method is based on statistical sampling techniques and includes the steps of reading the data; sorting the data; evaluating a potential split according to some criterion using a random sample of the data, splitting the data, and combining multiple decision trees in ensembles.

Dynamics of the conformal factor in 4D gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antoniadis, I.

1993-01-01

We argue that 4D gravity is drastically modified at distances larger than the horizon scale, due to the large infrared quantum fluctuations of the conformal part of the metric. The infrared dynamics of the conformal factor is generated by an effective action, induced by the trace anomaly of matter in curved space, analogous to the Polyakov action in two dimensions. The resulting effective scalar theory is renormalizable, and possesses a non-trivial, infrared stable fixed point, characterized by an anomalous scaling dimension of the conformal factor. We argue that this theory describes a large distance scale invariant phase of 4D gravity and provides a framework for a dynamical solution of the cosmological constant problem (author). 12 refs

Sub-Ensemble Coastal Flood Forecasting: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin A. Schulte

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, it is proposed that coastal flood ensemble forecasts be partitioned into sub-ensemble forecasts using cluster analysis in order to produce representative statistics and to measure forecast uncertainty arising from the presence of clusters. After clustering the ensemble members, the ability to predict the cluster into which the observation will fall can be measured using a cluster skill score. Additional sub-ensemble and composite skill scores are proposed for assessing the forecast skill of a clustered ensemble forecast. A recently proposed method for statistically increasing the number of ensemble members is used to improve sub-ensemble probabilistic estimates. Through the application of the proposed methodology to Sandy coastal flood reforecasts, it is demonstrated that statistics computed using only ensemble members belonging to a specific cluster are more representative than those computed using all ensemble members simultaneously. A cluster skill-cluster uncertainty index relationship is identified, which is the cluster analog of the documented spread-skill relationship. Two sub-ensemble skill scores are shown to be positively correlated with cluster forecast skill, suggesting that skillfully forecasting the cluster into which the observation will fall is important to overall forecast skill. The identified relationships also suggest that the number of ensemble members within in each cluster can be used as guidance for assessing the potential for forecast error. The inevitable existence of ensemble member clusters in tidally dominated total water level prediction systems suggests that clustering is a necessary post-processing step for producing representative and skillful total water level forecasts.

Generation of triangulated random surfaces by means of the Monte Carlo method in the grand canonical ensemble

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zmushko, V.V.; Migdal, A.A.

1987-01-01

A model of triangulated random surfaces which is the discrete analogue of the Polyakov string is considered in the work. An algorithm is proposed which enables one to study the model by means of the Monte Carlo method in the grand canonical ensemble. Preliminary results are presented on the evaluation of the critical index γ

Supersymmetry applied to the spectrum edge of random matrix ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andreev, A.V.; Simons, B.D.; Taniguchi, N.

1994-01-01

A new matrix ensemble has recently been proposed to describe the transport properties in mesoscopic quantum wires. Both analytical and numerical studies have shown that the ensemble of Laguerre or of chiral random matrices provides a good description of scattering properties in this class of systems. Until now only conventional methods of random matrix theory have been used to study statistical properties within this ensemble. We demonstrate that the supersymmetry method, already employed in the study Dyson ensembles, can be extended to treat this class of random matrix ensembles. In developing this approach we investigate both new, as well as verify known statistical measures. Although we focus on ensembles in which T-invariance is violated our approach lays the foundation for future studies of T-invariant systems. ((orig.))

Modeling task-specific neuronal ensembles improves decoding of grasp

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Ryan J.; Soares, Alcimar B.; Rouse, Adam G.; Schieber, Marc H.; Thakor, Nitish V.

2018-06-01

Objective. Dexterous movement involves the activation and coordination of networks of neuronal populations across multiple cortical regions. Attempts to model firing of individual neurons commonly treat the firing rate as directly modulating with motor behavior. However, motor behavior may additionally be associated with modulations in the activity and functional connectivity of neurons in a broader ensemble. Accounting for variations in neural ensemble connectivity may provide additional information about the behavior being performed. Approach. In this study, we examined neural ensemble activity in primary motor cortex (M1) and premotor cortex (PM) of two male rhesus monkeys during performance of a center-out reach, grasp and manipulate task. We constructed point process encoding models of neuronal firing that incorporated task-specific variations in the baseline firing rate as well as variations in functional connectivity with the neural ensemble. Models were evaluated both in terms of their encoding capabilities and their ability to properly classify the grasp being performed. Main results. Task-specific ensemble models correctly predicted the performed grasp with over 95% accuracy and were shown to outperform models of neuronal activity that assume only a variable baseline firing rate. Task-specific ensemble models exhibited superior decoding performance in 82% of units in both monkeys (p  <  0.01). Inclusion of ensemble activity also broadly improved the ability of models to describe observed spiking. Encoding performance of task-specific ensemble models, measured by spike timing predictability, improved upon baseline models in 62% of units. Significance. These results suggest that additional discriminative information about motor behavior found in the variations in functional connectivity of neuronal ensembles located in motor-related cortical regions is relevant to decode complex tasks such as grasping objects, and may serve the basis for more

DG-AMMOS: a new tool to generate 3d conformation of small molecules using distance geometry and automated molecular mechanics optimization for in silico screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Lagorce, David; Pencheva, Tania; Villoutreix, Bruno O; Miteva, Maria A

2009-11-13

Discovery of new bioactive molecules that could enter drug discovery programs or that could serve as chemical probes is a very complex and costly endeavor. Structure-based and ligand-based in silico screening approaches are nowadays extensively used to complement experimental screening approaches in order to increase the effectiveness of the process and facilitating the screening of thousands or millions of small molecules against a biomolecular target. Both in silico screening methods require as input a suitable chemical compound collection and most often the 3D structure of the small molecules has to be generated since compounds are usually delivered in 1D SMILES, CANSMILES or in 2D SDF formats. Here, we describe the new open source program DG-AMMOS which allows the generation of the 3D conformation of small molecules using Distance Geometry and their energy minimization via Automated Molecular Mechanics Optimization. The program is validated on the Astex dataset, the ChemBridge Diversity database and on a number of small molecules with known crystal structures extracted from the Cambridge Structural Database. A comparison with the free program Balloon and the well-known commercial program Omega generating the 3D of small molecules is carried out. The results show that the new free program DG-AMMOS is a very efficient 3D structure generator engine. DG-AMMOS provides fast, automated and reliable access to the generation of 3D conformation of small molecules and facilitates the preparation of a compound collection prior to high-throughput virtual screening computations. The validation of DG-AMMOS on several different datasets proves that generated structures are generally of equal quality or sometimes better than structures obtained by other tested methods.

Bio-Optical Data Assimilation With Observational Error Covariance Derived From an Ensemble of Satellite Images

Science.gov (United States)

Shulman, Igor; Gould, Richard W.; Frolov, Sergey; McCarthy, Sean; Penta, Brad; Anderson, Stephanie; Sakalaukus, Peter

2018-03-01

An ensemble-based approach to specify observational error covariance in the data assimilation of satellite bio-optical properties is proposed. The observational error covariance is derived from statistical properties of the generated ensemble of satellite MODIS-Aqua chlorophyll (Chl) images. The proposed observational error covariance is used in the Optimal Interpolation scheme for the assimilation of MODIS-Aqua Chl observations. The forecast error covariance is specified in the subspace of the multivariate (bio-optical, physical) empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) estimated from a month-long model run. The assimilation of surface MODIS-Aqua Chl improved surface and subsurface model Chl predictions. Comparisons with surface and subsurface water samples demonstrate that data assimilation run with the proposed observational error covariance has higher RMSE than the data assimilation run with "optimistic" assumption about observational errors (10% of the ensemble mean), but has smaller or comparable RMSE than data assimilation run with an assumption that observational errors equal to 35% of the ensemble mean (the target error for satellite data product for chlorophyll). Also, with the assimilation of the MODIS-Aqua Chl data, the RMSE between observed and model-predicted fractions of diatoms to the total phytoplankton is reduced by a factor of two in comparison to the nonassimilative run.

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.

2015-01-01

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and

Encoding of Spatial Attention by Primate Prefrontal Cortex Neuronal Ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Treue, Stefan

2018-01-01

Abstract Single neurons in the primate lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) encode information about the allocation of visual attention and the features of visual stimuli. However, how this compares to the performance of neuronal ensembles at encoding the same information is poorly understood. Here, we recorded the responses of neuronal ensembles in the LPFC of two macaque monkeys while they performed a task that required attending to one of two moving random dot patterns positioned in different hemifields and ignoring the other pattern. We found single units selective for the location of the attended stimulus as well as for its motion direction. To determine the coding of both variables in the population of recorded units, we used a linear classifier and progressively built neuronal ensembles by iteratively adding units according to their individual performance (best single units), or by iteratively adding units based on their contribution to the ensemble performance (best ensemble). For both methods, ensembles of relatively small sizes (n decoding performance relative to individual single units. However, the decoder reached similar performance using fewer neurons with the best ensemble building method compared with the best single units method. Our results indicate that neuronal ensembles within the LPFC encode more information about the attended spatial and nonspatial features of visual stimuli than individual neurons. They further suggest that efficient coding of attention can be achieved by relatively small neuronal ensembles characterized by a certain relationship between signal and noise correlation structures. PMID:29568798

Hong-Ou-Mandel Interference between Two Deterministic Collective Excitations in an Atomic Ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jun; Zhou, Ming-Ti; Jing, Bo; Wang, Xu-Jie; Yang, Sheng-Jun; Jiang, Xiao; Mølmer, Klaus; Bao, Xiao-Hui; Pan, Jian-Wei

2016-10-01

We demonstrate deterministic generation of two distinct collective excitations in one atomic ensemble, and we realize the Hong-Ou-Mandel interference between them. Using Rydberg blockade we create single collective excitations in two different Zeeman levels, and we use stimulated Raman transitions to perform a beam-splitter operation between the excited atomic modes. By converting the atomic excitations into photons, the two-excitation interference is measured by photon coincidence detection with a visibility of 0.89(6). The Hong-Ou-Mandel interference witnesses an entangled NOON state of the collective atomic excitations, and we demonstrate its two times enhanced sensitivity to a magnetic field compared with a single excitation. Our work implements a minimal instance of boson sampling and paves the way for further multimode and multiexcitation studies with collective excitations of atomic ensembles.

Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinyin Ye

2016-01-01

Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

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Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

2016-03-01

Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

Identifying Different Transportation Modes from Trajectory Data Using Tree-Based Ensemble Classifiers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhibin Xiao

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Recognition of transportation modes can be used in different applications including human behavior research, transport management and traffic control. Previous work on transportation mode recognition has often relied on using multiple sensors or matching Geographic Information System (GIS information, which is not possible in many cases. In this paper, an approach based on ensemble learning is proposed to infer hybrid transportation modes using only Global Position System (GPS data. First, in order to distinguish between different transportation modes, we used a statistical method to generate global features and extract several local features from sub-trajectories after trajectory segmentation, before these features were combined in the classification stage. Second, to obtain a better performance, we used tree-based ensemble models (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, and XGBoost instead of traditional methods (K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree, and Support Vector Machines to classify the different transportation modes. The experiment results on the later have shown the efficacy of our proposed approach. Among them, the XGBoost model produced the best performance with a classification accuracy of 90.77% obtained on the GEOLIFE dataset, and we used a tree-based ensemble method to ensure accurate feature selection to reduce the model complexity.

Optical ensemble analysis of intraocular lens performance through a simulated clinical trial with ZEMAX.

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Zhao, Huawei

2009-01-01

A ZEMAX model was constructed to simulate a clinical trial of intraocular lenses (IOLs) based on a clinically oriented Monte Carlo ensemble analysis using postoperative ocular parameters. The purpose of this model is to test the feasibility of streamlining and optimizing both the design process and the clinical testing of IOLs. This optical ensemble analysis (OEA) is also validated. Simulated pseudophakic eyes were generated by using the tolerancing and programming features of ZEMAX optical design software. OEA methodology was verified by demonstrating that the results of clinical performance simulations were consistent with previously published clinical performance data using the same types of IOLs. From these results we conclude that the OEA method can objectively simulate the potential clinical trial performance of IOLs.

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

On-line Learning of Unlearnable True Teacher through Mobile Ensemble Teachers

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Hirama, Takeshi; Hukushima, Koji

2008-09-01

The on-line learning of a hierarchical learning model is studied by a method based on statistical mechanics. In our model, a student of a simple perceptron learns from not a true teacher directly, but ensemble teachers who learn from a true teacher with a perceptron learning rule. Since the true teacher and ensemble teachers are expressed as nonmonotonic and simple perceptrons, respectively, the ensemble teachers go around the unlearnable true teacher with the distance between them fixed in an asymptotic steady state. The generalization performance of the student is shown to exceed that of the ensemble teachers in a transient state, as was shown in similar ensemble-teachers models. Furthermore, it is found that moving the ensemble teachers even in the steady state, in contrast to the fixed ensemble teachers, is efficient for the performance of the student.

Encompassing receptor flexibility in virtual screening using ensemble docking-based hybrid QSAR: discovery of novel phytochemicals for BACE1 inhibition.

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Chakraborty, Sandipan; Ramachandran, Balaji; Basu, Soumalee

2014-10-01

Mimicking receptor flexibility during receptor-ligand binding is a challenging task in computational drug design since it is associated with a large increase in the conformational search space. In the present study, we have devised an in silico design strategy incorporating receptor flexibility in virtual screening to identify potential lead compounds as inhibitors for flexible proteins. We have considered BACE1 (β-secretase), a key target protease from a therapeutic perspective for Alzheimer's disease, as the highly flexible receptor. The protein undergoes significant conformational transitions from open to closed form upon ligand binding, which makes it a difficult target for inhibitor design. We have designed a hybrid structure-activity model containing both ligand based descriptors and energetic descriptors obtained from molecular docking based on a dataset of structurally diverse BACE1 inhibitors. An ensemble of receptor conformations have been used in the docking study, further improving the prediction ability of the model. The designed model that shows significant prediction ability judged by several statistical parameters has been used to screen an in house developed 3-D structural library of 731 phytochemicals. 24 highly potent, novel BACE1 inhibitors with predicted activity (Ki) ≤ 50 nM have been identified. Detailed analysis reveals pharmacophoric features of these novel inhibitors required to inhibit BACE1.

An ensemble classifier to predict track geometry degradation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cárdenas-Gallo, Iván; Sarmiento, Carlos A.; Morales, Gilberto A.; Bolivar, Manuel A.; Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Raha

2017-01-01

Railway operations are inherently complex and source of several problems. In particular, track geometry defects are one of the leading causes of train accidents in the United States. This paper presents a solution approach which entails the construction of an ensemble classifier to forecast the degradation of track geometry. Our classifier is constructed by solving the problem from three different perspectives: deterioration, regression and classification. We considered a different model from each perspective and our results show that using an ensemble method improves the predictive performance. - Highlights: • We present an ensemble classifier to forecast the degradation of track geometry. • Our classifier considers three perspectives: deterioration, regression and classification. • We construct and test three models and our results show that using an ensemble method improves the predictive performance.