Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

Science.gov (United States)

Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

2017-01-01

Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

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Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

Parametric change point estimation, testing and confidence interval ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In many applications like finance, industry and medicine, it is important to consider that the model parameters may undergo changes at unknown moment in time. This paper deals with estimation, testing and confidence interval of a change point for a univariate variable which is assumed to be normally distributed. To detect ...

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Younes, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ratkiewicz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the ²³⁵U(n, f) and ²³⁹Pu (n, f) cross sections.

On Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculation

CERN Document Server

Tegenfeldt, Fredrik

2005-01-01

In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this note we present a study of the coverage of this method for the standard Likelihood Ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) construction for a Poisson process with known background and Gaussian or log-Normal distributed uncertainties in the background or signal efficiency. For uncertainties in the signal efficiency of upto 40 % we find over-coverage on the level of 2 to 4 % depending on the size of uncertainties and the region in signal space. Uncertainties in the background generally have smaller effect on the coverage. A considerable smoothing of the coverage curves is observed. A software package is presented which allows fast calculation of the confidence intervals for a variety of assumptions on shape and size of systematic uncertainties for different nuisance paramete...

The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

2014-05-01

The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

Confidence interval procedures for Monte Carlo transport simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pederson, S.P.

1997-01-01

The problem of obtaining valid confidence intervals based on estimates from sampled distributions using Monte Carlo particle transport simulation codes such as MCNP is examined. Such intervals can cover the true parameter of interest at a lower than nominal rate if the sampled distribution is extremely right-skewed by large tallies. Modifications to the standard theory of confidence intervals are discussed and compared with some existing heuristics, including batched means normality tests. Two new types of diagnostics are introduced to assess whether the conditions of central limit theorem-type results are satisfied: the relative variance of the variance determines whether the sample size is sufficiently large, and estimators of the slope of the right tail of the distribution are used to indicate the number of moments that exist. A simulation study is conducted to quantify the relationship between various diagnostics and coverage rates and to find sample-based quantities useful in indicating when intervals are expected to be valid. Simulated tally distributions are chosen to emulate behavior seen in difficult particle transport problems. Measures of variation in the sample variance s 2 are found to be much more effective than existing methods in predicting when coverage will be near nominal rates. Batched means tests are found to be overly conservative in this regard. A simple but pathological MCNP problem is presented as an example of false convergence using existing heuristics. The new methods readily detect the false convergence and show that the results of the problem, which are a factor of 4 too small, should not be used. Recommendations are made for applying these techniques in practice, using the statistical output currently produced by MCNP

Confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.L.; Naberejnev, D.G.

2004-01-01

The present communication addresses the topic of symmetric confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution. This distribution is frequently utilized to characterize inherently positive, continuous random variables that are selected to represent many physical quantities in applied nuclear science and technology. The basic formalism is outlined herein and a conjured numerical example is provided for illustration. It is demonstrated that when the uncertainty reflected in a lognormal probability distribution is large, the use of a confidence interval provides much more useful information about the variable used to represent a particular physical quantity than can be had by adhering to the notion that the mean value and standard deviation of the distribution ought to be interpreted as best value and corresponding error, respectively. Furthermore, it is shown that if the uncertainty is very large a disturbing anomaly can arise when one insists on interpreting the mean value and standard deviation as the best value and corresponding error, respectively. Reliance on using the mode and median as alternative parameters to represent the best available knowledge of a variable with large uncertainties is also shown to entail limitations. Finally, a realistic physical example involving the decay of radioactivity over a time period that spans many half-lives is presented and analyzed to further illustrate the concepts discussed in this communication

Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

Science.gov (United States)

Bonett, Douglas G.

2006-01-01

Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

Comparing confidence intervals for Goodman and Kruskal's gamma coefficient

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Ark, L.A.; van Aert, R.C.M.

2015-01-01

This study was motivated by the question which type of confidence interval (CI) one should use to summarize sample variance of Goodman and Kruskal's coefficient gamma. In a Monte-Carlo study, we investigated the coverage and computation time of the Goodman-Kruskal CI, the Cliff-consistent CI, the

Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 1. Sampling and Medical Key Parameters Calculation

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Tudor DRUGAN

2003-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper was to present the usefulness of the binomial distribution in studying of the contingency tables and the problems of approximation to normality of binomial distribution (the limits, advantages, and disadvantages. The classification of the medical keys parameters reported in medical literature and expressing them using the contingency table units based on their mathematical expressions restrict the discussion of the confidence intervals from 34 parameters to 9 mathematical expressions. The problem of obtaining different information starting with the computed confidence interval for a specified method, information like confidence intervals boundaries, percentages of the experimental errors, the standard deviation of the experimental errors and the deviation relative to significance level was solves through implementation in PHP programming language of original algorithms. The cases of expression, which contain two binomial variables, were separately treated. An original method of computing the confidence interval for the case of two-variable expression was proposed and implemented. The graphical representation of the expression of two binomial variables for which the variation domain of one of the variable depend on the other variable was a real problem because the most of the software used interpolation in graphical representation and the surface maps were quadratic instead of triangular. Based on an original algorithm, a module was implements in PHP in order to represent graphically the triangular surface plots. All the implementation described above was uses in computing the confidence intervals and estimating their performance for binomial distributions sample sizes and variable.

Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

Science.gov (United States)

Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

2012-08-01

Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

Effect size, confidence intervals and statistical power in psychological research.

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Téllez A.

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Quantitative psychological research is focused on detecting the occurrence of certain population phenomena by analyzing data from a sample, and statistics is a particularly helpful mathematical tool that is used by researchers to evaluate hypotheses and make decisions to accept or reject such hypotheses. In this paper, the various statistical tools in psychological research are reviewed. The limitations of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST and the advantages of using effect size and its respective confidence intervals are explained, as the latter two measurements can provide important information about the results of a study. These measurements also can facilitate data interpretation and easily detect trivial effects, enabling researchers to make decisions in a more clinically relevant fashion. Moreover, it is recommended to establish an appropriate sample size by calculating the optimum statistical power at the moment that the research is designed. Psychological journal editors are encouraged to follow APA recommendations strictly and ask authors of original research studies to report the effect size, its confidence intervals, statistical power and, when required, any measure of clinical significance. Additionally, we must account for the teaching of statistics at the graduate level. At that level, students do not receive sufficient information concerning the importance of using different types of effect sizes and their confidence intervals according to the different types of research designs; instead, most of the information is focused on the various tools of NHST.

The Optimal Confidence Intervals for Agricultural Products’ Price Forecasts Based on Hierarchical Historical Errors

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Yi Wang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available With the levels of confidence and system complexity, interval forecasts and entropy analysis can deliver more information than point forecasts. In this paper, we take receivers’ demands as our starting point, use the trade-off model between accuracy and informativeness as the criterion to construct the optimal confidence interval, derive the theoretical formula of the optimal confidence interval and propose a practical and efficient algorithm based on entropy theory and complexity theory. In order to improve the estimation precision of the error distribution, the point prediction errors are STRATIFIED according to prices and the complexity of the system; the corresponding prediction error samples are obtained by the prices stratification; and the error distributions are estimated by the kernel function method and the stability of the system. In a stable and orderly environment for price forecasting, we obtain point prediction error samples by the weighted local region and RBF (Radial basis function neural network methods, forecast the intervals of the soybean meal and non-GMO (Genetically Modified Organism soybean continuous futures closing prices and implement unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage tests for the simulation results. The empirical results are compared from various interval evaluation indicators, different levels of noise, several target confidence levels and different point prediction methods. The analysis shows that the optimal interval construction method is better than the equal probability method and the shortest interval method and has good anti-noise ability with the reduction of system entropy; the hierarchical estimation error method can obtain higher accuracy and better interval estimation than the non-hierarchical method in a stable system.

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

Comparing confidence intervals for Goodman and Kruskal’s gamma coefficient

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Ark, L.A.; van Aert, R.C.M.

2015-01-01

This study was motivated by the question which type of confidence interval (CI) one should use to summarize sample variance of Goodman and Kruskal's coefficient gamma. In a Monte-Carlo study, we investigated the coverage and computation time of the Goodman–Kruskal CI, the Cliff-consistent CI, the

Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Science.gov (United States)

Wagler, Amy E.

2014-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

On a linear method in bootstrap confidence intervals

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Andrea Pallini

2007-10-01

Full Text Available A linear method for the construction of asymptotic bootstrap confidence intervals is proposed. We approximate asymptotically pivotal and non-pivotal quantities, which are smooth functions of means of n independent and identically distributed random variables, by using a sum of n independent smooth functions of the same analytical form. Errors are of order Op(n-3/2 and Op(n-2, respectively. The linear method allows a straightforward approximation of bootstrap cumulants, by considering the set of n independent smooth functions as an original random sample to be resampled with replacement.

Binomial confidence intervals for testing non-inferiority or superiority: a practitioner's dilemma.

Science.gov (United States)

Pradhan, Vivek; Evans, John C; Banerjee, Tathagata

2016-08-01

In testing for non-inferiority or superiority in a single arm study, the confidence interval of a single binomial proportion is frequently used. A number of such intervals are proposed in the literature and implemented in standard software packages. Unfortunately, use of different intervals leads to conflicting conclusions. Practitioners thus face a serious dilemma in deciding which one to depend on. Is there a way to resolve this dilemma? We address this question by investigating the performances of ten commonly used intervals of a single binomial proportion, in the light of two criteria, viz., coverage and expected length of the interval. © The Author(s) 2013.

Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2014-10-01

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 7. Absolute Risk Reduction and ARR-like Expressions

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Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU

2004-08-01

Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.

Confidence Intervals Verification for Simulated Error Rate Performance of Wireless Communication System

KAUST Repository

Smadi, Mahmoud A.

2012-12-06

In this paper, we derived an efficient simulation method to evaluate the error rate of wireless communication system. Coherent binary phase-shift keying system is considered with imperfect channel phase recovery. The results presented demonstrate the system performance under very realistic Nakagami-m fading and additive white Gaussian noise channel. On the other hand, the accuracy of the obtained results is verified through running the simulation under a good confidence interval reliability of 95 %. We see that as the number of simulation runs N increases, the simulated error rate becomes closer to the actual one and the confidence interval difference reduces. Hence our results are expected to be of significant practical use for such scenarios. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Using Monte Carlo Simulations

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Roberto S. Flowers-Cano

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Design of hydraulic works requires the estimation of design hydrological events by statistical inference from a probability distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compared coverage of confidence intervals constructed with four bootstrap techniques: percentile bootstrap (BP, bias-corrected bootstrap (BC, accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap (BCA and a modified version of the standard bootstrap (MSB. Different simulation scenarios were analyzed. In some cases, the mother distribution function was fit to the random samples that were generated. In other cases, a distribution function different to the mother distribution was fit to the samples. When the fitted distribution had three parameters, and was the same as the mother distribution, the intervals constructed with the four techniques had acceptable coverage. However, the bootstrap techniques failed in several of the cases in which the fitted distribution had two parameters.

Methods for confidence interval estimation of a ratio parameter with application to location quotients

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Beyene Joseph

2005-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The location quotient (LQ ratio, a measure designed to quantify and benchmark the degree of relative concentration of an activity in the analysis of area localization, has received considerable attention in the geographic and economics literature. This index can also naturally be applied in the context of population health to quantify and compare health outcomes across spatial domains. However, one commonly observed limitation of LQ is its widespread use as only a point estimate without an accompanying confidence interval. Methods In this paper we present statistical methods that can be used to construct confidence intervals for location quotients. The delta and Fieller's methods are generic approaches for a ratio parameter and the generalized linear modelling framework is a useful re-parameterization particularly helpful for generating profile-likelihood based confidence intervals for the location quotient. A simulation experiment is carried out to assess the performance of each of the analytic approaches and a health utilization data set is used for illustration. Results Both the simulation results as well as the findings from the empirical data show that the different analytical methods produce very similar confidence limits for location quotients. When incidence of outcome is not rare and sample sizes are large, the confidence limits are almost indistinguishable. The confidence limits from the generalized linear model approach might be preferable in small sample situations. Conclusion LQ is a useful measure which allows quantification and comparison of health and other outcomes across defined geographical regions. It is a very simple index to compute and has a straightforward interpretation. Reporting this estimate with appropriate confidence limits using methods presented in this paper will make the measure particularly attractive for policy and decision makers.

Energy Performance Certificate of building and confidence interval in assessment: An Italian case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronchin, Lamberto; Fabbri, Kristian

2012-01-01

The Directive 2002/91/CE introduced the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC), an energy policy tool. The aim of the EPC is to inform building buyers about the energy performance and energy costs of buildings. The EPCs represent a specific energy policy tool to orient the building sector and real-estate markets toward higher energy efficiency buildings. The effectiveness of the EPC depends on two factors: •The accuracy of energy performance evaluation made by independent experts. •The capability of the energy classification and of the scale of energy performance to control the energy index fluctuations. In this paper, the results of a case study located in Italy are shown. In this example, 162 independent technicians on energy performance of building evaluation have studied the same building. The results reveal which part of confidence intervals is dependent on software misunderstanding and that the energy classification ranges are able to tolerate the fluctuation of energy indices. The example was chosen in accordance with the legislation of the Emilia-Romagna Region on Energy Efficiency of Buildings. Following these results, some thermo-economic evaluation related to building and energy labelling are illustrated, as the EPC, which is an energy policy tool for the real-estate market and building sector to find a way to build or retrofit an energy efficiency building. - Highlights: ► Evaluation of the accuracy of energy performance of buildings in relation with the knowledge of independent experts. ► Round robin test based on 162 case studies on the confidence intervals expressed by independent experts. ► Statistical considerations between the confidence intervals expressed by independent experts and energy simulation software. ► Relation between “proper class” in energy classification of buildings and confidence intervals of independent experts.

Confidence interval of intrinsic optimum temperature estimated using thermodynamic SSI model

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Takaya Ikemoto; Issei Kurahashi; Pei-Jian Shi

2013-01-01

The intrinsic optimum temperature for the development of ectotherms is one of the most important factors not only for their physiological processes but also for ecological and evolutional processes.The Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto (SSI) model succeeded in defining the temperature that can thermodynamically meet the condition that at a particular temperature the probability of an active enzyme reaching its maximum activity is realized.Previously,an algorithm was developed by Ikemoto (Tropical malaria does not mean hot environments.Journal of Medical Entomology,45,963-969) to estimate model parameters,but that program was computationally very time consuming.Now,investigators can use the SSI model more easily because a full automatic computer program was designed by Shi et al.(A modified program for estimating the parameters of the SSI model.Environmental Entomology,40,462-469).However,the statistical significance of the point estimate of the intrinsic optimum temperature for each ectotherm has not yet been determined.Here,we provided a new method for calculating the confidence interval of the estimated intrinsic optimum temperature by modifying the approximate bootstrap confidence intervals method.For this purpose,it was necessary to develop a new program for a faster estimation of the parameters in the SSI model,which we have also done.

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

Science.gov (United States)

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

Science.gov (United States)

Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

2016-04-01

Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith

Bootstrap resampling: a powerful method of assessing confidence intervals for doses from experimental data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iwi, G.; Millard, R.K.; Palmer, A.M.; Preece, A.W.; Saunders, M.

1999-01-01

Bootstrap resampling provides a versatile and reliable statistical method for estimating the accuracy of quantities which are calculated from experimental data. It is an empirically based method, in which large numbers of simulated datasets are generated by computer from existing measurements, so that approximate confidence intervals of the derived quantities may be obtained by direct numerical evaluation. A simple introduction to the method is given via a detailed example of estimating 95% confidence intervals for cumulated activity in the thyroid following injection of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate using activity-time data from 23 subjects. The application of the approach to estimating confidence limits for the self-dose to the kidney following injection of 99m Tc-DTPA organ imaging agent based on uptake data from 19 subjects is also illustrated. Results are then given for estimates of doses to the foetus following administration of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate for clinical reasons during pregnancy, averaged over 25 subjects. The bootstrap method is well suited for applications in radiation dosimetry including uncertainty, reliability and sensitivity analysis of dose coefficients in biokinetic models, but it can also be applied in a wide range of other biomedical situations. (author)

Confidence intervals for the first crossing point of two hazard functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Ming-Yen; Qiu, Peihua; Tan, Xianming; Tu, Dongsheng

2009-12-01

The phenomenon of crossing hazard rates is common in clinical trials with time to event endpoints. Many methods have been proposed for testing equality of hazard functions against a crossing hazards alternative. However, there has been relatively few approaches available in the literature for point or interval estimation of the crossing time point. The problem of constructing confidence intervals for the first crossing time point of two hazard functions is considered in this paper. After reviewing a recent procedure based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event, a nonparametric procedure using the kernel smoothing estimate of the hazard ratio is proposed. The proposed procedure and the one based on Cox proportional hazard modeling with Box-Cox transformation of the time to event are both evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations and applied to two clinical trial datasets.

How to Avoid Errors in Error Propagation: Prediction Intervals and Confidence Intervals in Forest Biomass

Science.gov (United States)

Lilly, P.; Yanai, R. D.; Buckley, H. L.; Case, B. S.; Woollons, R. C.; Holdaway, R. J.; Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Calculations of forest biomass and elemental content require many measurements and models, each contributing uncertainty to the final estimates. While sampling error is commonly reported, based on replicate plots, error due to uncertainty in the regression used to estimate biomass from tree diameter is usually not quantified. Some published estimates of uncertainty due to the regression models have used the uncertainty in the prediction of individuals, ignoring uncertainty in the mean, while others have propagated uncertainty in the mean while ignoring individual variation. Using the simple case of the calcium concentration of sugar maple leaves, we compare the variation among individuals (the standard deviation) to the uncertainty in the mean (the standard error) and illustrate the declining importance in the prediction of individual concentrations as the number of individuals increases. For allometric models, the analogous statistics are the prediction interval (or the residual variation in the model fit) and the confidence interval (describing the uncertainty in the best fit model). The effect of propagating these two sources of error is illustrated using the mass of sugar maple foliage. The uncertainty in individual tree predictions was large for plots with few trees; for plots with 30 trees or more, the uncertainty in individuals was less important than the uncertainty in the mean. Authors of previously published analyses have reanalyzed their data to show the magnitude of these two sources of uncertainty in scales ranging from experimental plots to entire countries. The most correct analysis will take both sources of uncertainty into account, but for practical purposes, country-level reports of uncertainty in carbon stocks, as required by the IPCC, can ignore the uncertainty in individuals. Ignoring the uncertainty in the mean will lead to exaggerated estimates of confidence in estimates of forest biomass and carbon and nutrient contents.

Growth Estimators and Confidence Intervals for the Mean of Negative Binomial Random Variables with Unknown Dispersion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Shilane

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The negative binomial distribution becomes highly skewed under extreme dispersion. Even at moderately large sample sizes, the sample mean exhibits a heavy right tail. The standard normal approximation often does not provide adequate inferences about the data's expected value in this setting. In previous work, we have examined alternative methods of generating confidence intervals for the expected value. These methods were based upon Gamma and Chi Square approximations or tail probability bounds such as Bernstein's inequality. We now propose growth estimators of the negative binomial mean. Under high dispersion, zero values are likely to be overrepresented in the data. A growth estimator constructs a normal-style confidence interval by effectively removing a small, predetermined number of zeros from the data. We propose growth estimators based upon multiplicative adjustments of the sample mean and direct removal of zeros from the sample. These methods do not require estimating the nuisance dispersion parameter. We will demonstrate that the growth estimators' confidence intervals provide improved coverage over a wide range of parameter values and asymptotically converge to the sample mean. Interestingly, the proposed methods succeed despite adding both bias and variance to the normal approximation.

Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urbatsch, T.J.

1995-01-01

MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for Calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov Theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the individual estimator with the smallest variance. The importance of MCNP's batch statistics is demonstrated by an investigation of the effects of individual estimator variance bias on the combination of estimators, both heuristically with the analytical study and emprically with MCNP

Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urbatsch, T.J.

1995-01-01

The Monte Carlo code MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the estimator with the smallest variance. Empirically, MCNP examples for several physical systems demonstrate the three-combined estimator's superiority over each of the three individual estimators and its correct coverage rates. Additionally, the importance of MCNP's statistical checks is demonstrated

Tests and Confidence Intervals for an Extended Variance Component Using the Modified Likelihood Ratio Statistic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Frydenberg, Morten; Jensen, Jens Ledet

2005-01-01

The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented......, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient....

Confidence intervals for modeling anthocyanin retention in grape pomace during nonisothermal heating.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, D K; Dolan, K D; Yang, L

2008-01-01

Degradation of nutraceuticals in low- and intermediate-moisture foods heated at high temperature (>100 degrees C) is difficult to model because of the nonisothermal condition. Isothermal experiments above 100 degrees C are difficult to design because they require high pressure and small sample size in sealed containers. Therefore, a nonisothermal method was developed to estimate the thermal degradation kinetic parameter of nutraceuticals and determine the confidence intervals for the parameters and the predicted Y (concentration). Grape pomace at 42% moisture content (wb) was heated in sealed 202 x 214 steel cans in a steam retort at 126.7 degrees C for > 30 min. Can center temperature was measured by thermocouple and predicted using Comsol software. Thermal conductivity (k) and specific heat (C(p)) were estimated as quadratic functions of temperature using Comsol and nonlinear regression. The k and C(p) functions were then used to predict temperature inside the grape pomace during retorting. Similar heating experiments were run at different time-temperature treatments from 8 to 25 min for kinetic parameter estimation. Anthocyanin concentration in the grape pomace was measured using HPLC. Degradation rate constant (k(110 degrees C)) and activation energy (E(a)) were estimated using nonlinear regression. The thermophysical properties estimates at 100 degrees C were k = 0.501 W/m degrees C, Cp= 3600 J/kg and the kinetic parameters were k(110 degrees C)= 0.0607/min and E(a)= 65.32 kJ/mol. The 95% confidence intervals for the parameters and the confidence bands and prediction bands for anthocyanin retention were plotted. These methods are useful for thermal processing design for nutraceutical products.

Statistical variability and confidence intervals for planar dose QA pass rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bailey, Daniel W.; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Attwood, Kristopher; Kumaraswamy, Lalith; Podgorsak, Matthew B. [Department of Physics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14260 (United States) and Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Canis Lupus LLC, Merrimac, Wisconsin 53561 (United States); Department of Biostatistics, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Radiation Medicine, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States); Department of Molecular and Cellular Biophysics and Biochemistry, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York 14263 (United States) and Department of Physiology and Biophysics, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14214 (United States)

2011-11-15

Purpose: The most common metric for comparing measured to calculated dose, such as for pretreatment quality assurance of intensity-modulated photon fields, is a pass rate (%) generated using percent difference (%Diff), distance-to-agreement (DTA), or some combination of the two (e.g., gamma evaluation). For many dosimeters, the grid of analyzed points corresponds to an array with a low areal density of point detectors. In these cases, the pass rates for any given comparison criteria are not absolute but exhibit statistical variability that is a function, in part, on the detector sampling geometry. In this work, the authors analyze the statistics of various methods commonly used to calculate pass rates and propose methods for establishing confidence intervals for pass rates obtained with low-density arrays. Methods: Dose planes were acquired for 25 prostate and 79 head and neck intensity-modulated fields via diode array and electronic portal imaging device (EPID), and matching calculated dose planes were created via a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates for each dose plane pair (both centered to the beam central axis) were calculated with several common comparison methods: %Diff/DTA composite analysis and gamma evaluation, using absolute dose comparison with both local and global normalization. Specialized software was designed to selectively sample the measured EPID response (very high data density) down to discrete points to simulate low-density measurements. The software was used to realign the simulated detector grid at many simulated positions with respect to the beam central axis, thereby altering the low-density sampled grid. Simulations were repeated with 100 positional iterations using a 1 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, a 2 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, and similar random detector grids. For each simulation, %/DTA composite pass rates were calculated with various %Diff/DTA criteria and for both local and global %Diff normalization

Optimal and Most Exact Confidence Intervals for Person Parameters in Item Response Theory Models

Science.gov (United States)

Doebler, Anna; Doebler, Philipp; Holling, Heinz

2013-01-01

The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter [theta] is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given…

Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

Science.gov (United States)

Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

2017-10-01

The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

Science.gov (United States)

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tak Fung

Full Text Available The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%, a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L., occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

2012-08-01

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confidence Intervals for Asbestos Fiber Counts: Approximate Negative Binomial Distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartley, David; Slaven, James; Harper, Martin

2017-03-01

The negative binomial distribution is adopted for analyzing asbestos fiber counts so as to account for both the sampling errors in capturing only a finite number of fibers and the inevitable human variation in identifying and counting sampled fibers. A simple approximation to this distribution is developed for the derivation of quantiles and approximate confidence limits. The success of the approximation depends critically on the use of Stirling's expansion to sufficient order, on exact normalization of the approximating distribution, on reasonable perturbation of quantities from the normal distribution, and on accurately approximating sums by inverse-trapezoidal integration. Accuracy of the approximation developed is checked through simulation and also by comparison to traditional approximate confidence intervals in the specific case that the negative binomial distribution approaches the Poisson distribution. The resulting statistics are shown to relate directly to early research into the accuracy of asbestos sampling and analysis. Uncertainty in estimating mean asbestos fiber concentrations given only a single count is derived. Decision limits (limits of detection) and detection limits are considered for controlling false-positive and false-negative detection assertions and are compared to traditional limits computed assuming normal distributions. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2017.

Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aeyoung Kim

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authentication method, which uses biometrics and confidence interval sets to enhance the security of the log-in process and make it easier as well. The method offers a user-friendly solution for creating and registering strong passwords without the user having to memorize them. Here we also show the results of our experiments which demonstrate the efficiency of this method and how it can be used to protect against a variety of malicious attacks.

GENERALISED MODEL BASED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN TWO STAGE CLUSTER SAMPLING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Ouma Onyango

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Chambers and Dorfman (2002 constructed bootstrap confidence intervals in model based estimation for finite population totals assuming that auxiliary values are available throughout a target population and that the auxiliary values are independent. They also assumed that the cluster sizes are known throughout the target population. We now extend to two stage sampling in which the cluster sizes are known only for the sampled clusters, and we therefore predict the unobserved part of the population total. Jan and Elinor (2008 have done similar work, but unlike them, we use a general model, in which the auxiliary values are not necessarily independent. We demonstrate that the asymptotic properties of our proposed estimator and its coverage rates are better than those constructed under the model assisted local polynomial regression model.

The confidence-accuracy relationship for eyewitness identification decisions: Effects of exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Matthew A; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

2013-03-01

Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the CA relationship for eyewitness identification decisions is affected by three, forensically relevant variables: exposure duration, retention interval, and divided attention at encoding. In Study 1 (N = 986), a field experiment, we examined the effects of exposure duration (5 s vs. 90 s) and retention interval (immediate testing vs. a 1-week delay) on the CA relationship. In Study 2 (N = 502), we examined the effects of attention during encoding on the CA relationship by reanalyzing data from a laboratory experiment in which participants viewed a stimulus video under full or divided attention conditions and then attempted to identify two targets from separate lineups. Across both studies, all three manipulations affected identification accuracy. The central analyses concerned the CA relation for positive identification decisions. For the manipulations of exposure duration and retention interval, overconfidence was greater in the more difficult conditions (shorter exposure; delayed testing) than the easier conditions. Only the exposure duration manipulation influenced resolution (which was better for 5 s than 90 s), and only the retention interval manipulation affected calibration (which was better for immediate testing than delayed testing). In all experimental conditions, accuracy and diagnosticity increased with confidence, particularly at the upper end of the confidence scale. Implications for theory and forensic settings are discussed.

A Note on Confidence Interval for the Power of the One Sample Test

OpenAIRE

A. Wong

2010-01-01

In introductory statistics texts, the power of the test of a one-sample mean when the variance is known is widely discussed. However, when the variance is unknown, the power of the Student's -test is seldom mentioned. In this note, a general methodology for obtaining inference concerning a scalar parameter of interest of any exponential family model is proposed. The method is then applied to the one-sample mean problem with unknown variance to obtain a ( 1 − ) 100% confidence interval for...

Rescaled Range Analysis and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis: Finite Sample Properties and Confidence Intervals

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Krištoufek, Ladislav

4/2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 236-250 ISSN 1802-4696 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) 118310 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : rescaled range analysis * detrended fluctuation analysis * Hurst exponent * long-range dependence Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/kristoufek-rescaled range analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis finite sample properties and confidence intervals.pdf

The 95% confidence intervals of error rates and discriminant coefficients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuichi Shinmura

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Fisher proposed a linear discriminant function (Fisher’s LDF. From 1971, we analysed electrocardiogram (ECG data in order to develop the diagnostic logic between normal and abnormal symptoms by Fisher’s LDF and a quadratic discriminant function (QDF. Our four years research was inferior to the decision tree logic developed by the medical doctor. After this experience, we discriminated many data and found four problems of the discriminant analysis. A revised Optimal LDF by Integer Programming (Revised IP-OLDF based on the minimum number of misclassification (minimum NM criterion resolves three problems entirely [13, 18]. In this research, we discuss fourth problem of the discriminant analysis. There are no standard errors (SEs of the error rate and discriminant coefficient. We propose a k-fold crossvalidation method. This method offers a model selection technique and a 95% confidence intervals (C.I. of error rates and discriminant coefficients.

Coverage probability of bootstrap confidence intervals in heavy-tailed frequency models, with application to precipitation data

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kyselý, Jan

2010-01-01

Roč. 101, 3-4 (2010), s. 345-361 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420801 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : bootstrap * extreme value analysis * confidence intervals * heavy-tailed distributions * precipitation amounts Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.684, year: 2010

A NEW METHOD FOR CONSTRUCTING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR CPM BASED ON FUZZY DATA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bahram Sadeghpour Gildeh

2011-06-01

Full Text Available A measurement control system ensures that measuring equipment and measurement processes are fit for their intended use and its importance in achieving product quality objectives. In most real life applications, the observations are fuzzy. In some cases specification limits (SLs are not precise numbers and they are expressed in fuzzy terms, s o that the classical capability indices could not be applied. In this paper we obtain 100(1 - α% fuzzy confidence interval for C pm fuzzy process capability index, where instead of precise quality we have two membership functions for specification limits.

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

Science.gov (United States)

Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

2010-01-01

Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2011-04-15

The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

An SPSS Macro to Compute Confidence Intervals for Pearson’s Correlation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruce Weaver

2014-04-01

Full Text Available In many disciplines, including psychology, medical research, epidemiology and public health, authors are required, or at least encouraged to report confidence intervals (CIs along with effect size estimates. Many students and researchers in these areas use IBM-SPSS for statistical analysis. Unfortunately, the CORRELATIONS procedure in SPSS does not provide CIs in the output. Various work-around solutions have been suggested for obtaining CIs for rhowith SPSS, but most of them have been sub-optimal. Since release 18, it has been possible to compute bootstrap CIs, but only if users have the optional bootstrap module. The !rhoCI macro described in this article is accessible to all SPSS users with release 14 or later. It directs output from the CORRELATIONS procedure to another dataset, restructures that dataset to have one row per correlation, computes a CI for each correlation, and displays the results in a single table. Because the macro uses the CORRELATIONS procedure, it allows users to specify a list of two or more variables to include in the correlation matrix, to choose a confidence level, and to select either listwise or pairwise deletion. Thus, it offers substantial improvements over previous solutions to theproblem of how to compute CIs for rho with SPSS.

The best confidence interval of the failure rate and unavailability per demand when few experimental data are available

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodman, J.

1985-01-01

Using a few available data the likelihood functions for the failure rate and unavailability per demand are constructed. These likelihood functions are used to obtain likelihood density functions for the failure rate and unavailability per demand. The best (or shortest) confidence intervals for these functions are provided. The failure rate and unavailability per demand are important characteristics needed for reliability and availability analysis. The methods of estimation of these characteristics when plenty of observed data are available are well known. However, on many occasions when we deal with rare failure modes or with new equipment or components for which sufficient experience has not accumulated, we have scarce data where few or zero failures have occurred. In these cases, a technique which reflects exactly our state of knowledge is required. This technique is based on likelihood density function or Bayesian methods depending on the available prior distribution. To extract the maximum amount of information from the data the best confidence interval is determined

Assessing a disaggregated energy input: using confidence intervals around translog elasticity estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hisnanick, J.J.; Kyer, B.L.

1995-01-01

The role of energy in the production of manufacturing output has been debated extensively in the literature, particularly its relationship with capital and labor. In an attempt to provide some clarification in this debate, a two-step methodology was used. First under the assumption of a five-factor production function specification, we distinguished between electric and non-electric energy and assessed each component's relationship with capital and labor. Second, we calculated both the Allen and price elasticities and constructed 95% confidence intervals around these values. Our approach led to the following conclusions: that the disaggregation of the energy input into electric and non-electric energy is justified; that capital and electric energy and capital and non-electric energy are substitutes, while labor and electric energy and labor and non-electric energy are complements in production; and that capital and energy are substitutes, while labor and energy are complements. (author)

Learning about confidence intervals with software R

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gariela Gonçalves

2013-08-01

Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

User guide to the UNC1NLI1 package and three utility programs for computation of nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals using MODFLOW-2000

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Steen; Cooley, R.L.

a model (for example when using the Parameter-Estimation Process of MODFLOW-2000) it is advantageous to also use regression-based methods to quantify uncertainty. For this reason the UNC Process computes (1) confidence intervals for parameters of the Parameter-Estimation Process and (2) confidence...

Bootstrap confidence intervals for three-way methods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kiers, Henk A.L.

Results from exploratory three-way analysis techniques such as CANDECOMP/PARAFAC and Tucker3 analysis are usually presented without giving insight into uncertainties due to sampling. Here a bootstrap procedure is proposed that produces percentile intervals for all output parameters. Special

A nonparametric statistical method for determination of a confidence interval for the mean of a set of results obtained in a laboratory intercomparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veglia, A.

1981-08-01

In cases where sets of data are obviously not normally distributed, the application of a nonparametric method for the estimation of a confidence interval for the mean seems to be more suitable than some other methods because such a method requires few assumptions about the population of data. A two-step statistical method is proposed which can be applied to any set of analytical results: elimination of outliers by a nonparametric method based on Tchebycheff's inequality, and determination of a confidence interval for the mean by a non-parametric method based on binominal distribution. The method is appropriate only for samples of size n>=10

The Precision of Effect Size Estimation From Published Psychological Research: Surveying Confidence Intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Brand, Andrew; Bradley, Michael T

2016-02-01

Confidence interval ( CI) widths were calculated for reported Cohen's d standardized effect sizes and examined in two automated surveys of published psychological literature. The first survey reviewed 1,902 articles from Psychological Science. The second survey reviewed a total of 5,169 articles from across the following four APA journals: Journal of Abnormal Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, and Developmental Psychology. The median CI width for d was greater than 1 in both surveys. Hence, CI widths were, as Cohen (1994) speculated, embarrassingly large. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that CI widths varied across psychological research areas and that CI widths were not discernably decreasing over time. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed along with ways of reducing the CI widths and thus improving precision of effect size estimation.

A Note on Confidence Interval for the Power of the One Sample Test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Wong

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In introductory statistics texts, the power of the test of a one-sample mean when the variance is known is widely discussed. However, when the variance is unknown, the power of the Student's -test is seldom mentioned. In this note, a general methodology for obtaining inference concerning a scalar parameter of interest of any exponential family model is proposed. The method is then applied to the one-sample mean problem with unknown variance to obtain a (1−100% confidence interval for the power of the Student's -test that detects the difference (−0. The calculations require only the density and the cumulative distribution functions of the standard normal distribution. In addition, the methodology presented can also be applied to determine the required sample size when the effect size and the power of a size test of mean are given.

Generalized additive models and Lucilia sericata growth: assessing confidence intervals and error rates in forensic entomology.

Science.gov (United States)

Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

2008-07-01

Forensic entomologists use blow fly development to estimate a postmortem interval. Although accurate, fly age estimates can be imprecise for older developmental stages and no standard means of assigning confidence intervals exists. Presented here is a method for modeling growth of the forensically important blow fly Lucilia sericata, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Eighteen GAMs were created to predict the extent of juvenile fly development, encompassing developmental stage, length, weight, strain, and temperature data, collected from 2559 individuals. All measures were informative, explaining up to 92.6% of the deviance in the data, though strain and temperature exerted negligible influences. Predictions made with an independent data set allowed for a subsequent examination of error. Estimates using length and developmental stage were within 5% of true development percent during the feeding portion of the larval life cycle, while predictions for postfeeding third instars were less precise, but within expected error.

Prediction of the distillation temperatures of crude oils using ¹H NMR and support vector regression with estimated confidence intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Filgueiras, Paulo R; Terra, Luciana A; Castro, Eustáquio V R; Oliveira, Lize M S L; Dias, Júlio C M; Poppi, Ronei J

2015-09-01

This paper aims to estimate the temperature equivalent to 10% (T10%), 50% (T50%) and 90% (T90%) of distilled volume in crude oils using (1)H NMR and support vector regression (SVR). Confidence intervals for the predicted values were calculated using a boosting-type ensemble method in a procedure called ensemble support vector regression (eSVR). The estimated confidence intervals obtained by eSVR were compared with previously accepted calculations from partial least squares (PLS) models and a boosting-type ensemble applied in the PLS method (ePLS). By using the proposed boosting strategy, it was possible to identify outliers in the T10% property dataset. The eSVR procedure improved the accuracy of the distillation temperature predictions in relation to standard PLS, ePLS and SVR. For T10%, a root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 11.6°C was obtained in comparison with 15.6°C for PLS, 15.1°C for ePLS and 28.4°C for SVR. The RMSEPs for T50% were 24.2°C, 23.4°C, 22.8°C and 14.4°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. For T90%, the values of RMSEP were 39.0°C, 39.9°C and 39.9°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. The confidence intervals calculated by the proposed boosting methodology presented acceptable values for the three properties analyzed; however, they were lower than those calculated by the standard methodology for PLS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Test Statistics and Confidence Intervals to Establish Noninferiority between Treatments with Ordinal Categorical Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka

2015-01-01

The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.

Weighted profile likelihood-based confidence interval for the difference between two proportions with paired binomial data.

Science.gov (United States)

Pradhan, Vivek; Saha, Krishna K; Banerjee, Tathagata; Evans, John C

2014-07-30

Inference on the difference between two binomial proportions in the paired binomial setting is often an important problem in many biomedical investigations. Tang et al. (2010, Statistics in Medicine) discussed six methods to construct confidence intervals (henceforth, we abbreviate it as CI) for the difference between two proportions in paired binomial setting using method of variance estimates recovery. In this article, we propose weighted profile likelihood-based CIs for the difference between proportions of a paired binomial distribution. However, instead of the usual likelihood, we use weighted likelihood that is essentially making adjustments to the cell frequencies of a 2 × 2 table in the spirit of Agresti and Min (2005, Statistics in Medicine). We then conduct numerical studies to compare the performances of the proposed CIs with that of Tang et al. and Agresti and Min in terms of coverage probabilities and expected lengths. Our numerical study clearly indicates that the weighted profile likelihood-based intervals and Jeffreys interval (cf. Tang et al.) are superior in terms of achieving the nominal level, and in terms of expected lengths, they are competitive. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed CIs with real-life examples. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Number of core samples: Mean concentrations and confidence intervals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jensen, L.; Cromar, R.D.; Wilmarth, S.R.; Heasler, P.G.

1995-01-01

This document provides estimates of how well the mean concentration of analytes are known as a function of the number of core samples, composite samples, and replicate analyses. The estimates are based upon core composite data from nine recently sampled single-shell tanks. The results can be used when determining the number of core samples needed to ''characterize'' the waste from similar single-shell tanks. A standard way of expressing uncertainty in the estimate of a mean is with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The authors investigate how the width of a 95% CI on the mean concentration decreases as the number of observations increase. Specifically, the tables and figures show how the relative half-width (RHW) of a 95% CI decreases as the number of core samples increases. The RHW of a CI is a unit-less measure of uncertainty. The general conclusions are as follows: (1) the RHW decreases dramatically as the number of core samples is increased, the decrease is much smaller when the number of composited samples or the number of replicate analyses are increase; (2) if the mean concentration of an analyte needs to be estimated with a small RHW, then a large number of core samples is required. The estimated number of core samples given in the tables and figures were determined by specifying different sizes of the RHW. Four nominal sizes were examined: 10%, 25%, 50%, and 100% of the observed mean concentration. For a majority of analytes the number of core samples required to achieve an accuracy within 10% of the mean concentration is extremely large. In many cases, however, two or three core samples is sufficient to achieve a RHW of approximately 50 to 100%. Because many of the analytes in the data have small concentrations, this level of accuracy may be satisfactory for some applications

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity.

Science.gov (United States)

Gengsheng Qin; Davis, Angela E; Jing, Bing-Yi

2011-06-01

For a continuous-scale diagnostic test, it is often of interest to find the range of the sensitivity of the test at the cut-off that yields a desired specificity. In this article, we first define a profile empirical likelihood ratio for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test and show that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi-square distribution. We then propose two new empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of the test at a fixed level of specificity by using the scaled chi-square distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance of the newly proposed intervals with the existing intervals for the sensitivity in terms of coverage probability. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended methods.

Tablet potency of Tianeptine in coated tablets by near infrared spectroscopy: model optimisation, calibration transfer and confidence intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Boiret, Mathieu; Meunier, Loïc; Ginot, Yves-Michel

2011-02-20

A near infrared (NIR) method was developed for determination of tablet potency of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) in a complex coated tablet matrix. The calibration set contained samples from laboratory and production scale batches. The reference values were obtained by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and partial least squares (PLS) regression was used to establish a model. The model was challenged by calculating tablet potency of two external test sets. Root mean square errors of prediction were respectively equal to 2.0% and 2.7%. To use this model with a second spectrometer from the production field, a calibration transfer method called piecewise direct standardisation (PDS) was used. After the transfer, the root mean square error of prediction of the first test set was 2.4% compared to 4.0% without transferring the spectra. A statistical technique using bootstrap of PLS residuals was used to estimate confidence intervals of tablet potency calculations. This method requires an optimised PLS model, selection of the bootstrap number and determination of the risk. In the case of a chemical analysis, the tablet potency value will be included within the confidence interval calculated by the bootstrap method. An easy to use graphical interface was developed to easily determine if the predictions, surrounded by minimum and maximum values, are within the specifications defined by the regulatory organisation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computing confidence and prediction intervals of industrial equipment degradation by bootstrapped support vector regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lins, Isis Didier; Droguett, Enrique López; Moura, Márcio das Chagas; Zio, Enrico; Jacinto, Carlos Magno

2015-01-01

Data-driven learning methods for predicting the evolution of the degradation processes affecting equipment are becoming increasingly attractive in reliability and prognostics applications. Among these, we consider here Support Vector Regression (SVR), which has provided promising results in various applications. Nevertheless, the predictions provided by SVR are point estimates whereas in order to take better informed decisions, an uncertainty assessment should be also carried out. For this, we apply bootstrap to SVR so as to obtain confidence and prediction intervals, without having to make any assumption about probability distributions and with good performance even when only a small data set is available. The bootstrapped SVR is first verified on Monte Carlo experiments and then is applied to a real case study concerning the prediction of degradation of a component from the offshore oil industry. The results obtained indicate that the bootstrapped SVR is a promising tool for providing reliable point and interval estimates, which can inform maintenance-related decisions on degrading components. - Highlights: • Bootstrap (pairs/residuals) and SVR are used as an uncertainty analysis framework. • Numerical experiments are performed to assess accuracy and coverage properties. • More bootstrap replications does not significantly improve performance. • Degradation of equipment of offshore oil wells is estimated by bootstrapped SVR. • Estimates about the scale growth rate can support maintenance-related decisions

[Confidence interval or p-value--similarities and differences between two important methods of statistical inference of quantitative studies].

Science.gov (United States)

Harari, Gil

2014-01-01

Statistic significance, also known as p-value, and CI (Confidence Interval) are common statistics measures and are essential for the statistical analysis of studies in medicine and life sciences. These measures provide complementary information about the statistical probability and conclusions regarding the clinical significance of study findings. This article is intended to describe the methodologies, compare between the methods, assert their suitability for the different needs of study results analysis and to explain situations in which each method should be used.

Statistical intervals a guide for practitioners

CERN Document Server

Hahn, Gerald J

2011-01-01

Presents a detailed exposition of statistical intervals and emphasizes applications in industry. The discussion differentiates at an elementary level among different kinds of statistical intervals and gives instruction with numerous examples and simple math on how to construct such intervals from sample data. This includes confidence intervals to contain a population percentile, confidence intervals on probability of meeting specified threshold value, and prediction intervals to include observation in a future sample. Also has an appendix containing computer subroutines for nonparametric stati

Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eleanor S Devenish Nelson

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

Confidence intervals permit, but don't guarantee, better inference than statistical significance testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa Coulson

2010-07-01

Full Text Available A statistically significant result, and a non-significant result may differ little, although significance status may tempt an interpretation of difference. Two studies are reported that compared interpretation of such results presented using null hypothesis significance testing (NHST, or confidence intervals (CIs. Authors of articles published in psychology, behavioural neuroscience, and medical journals were asked, via email, to interpret two fictitious studies that found similar results, one statistically significant, and the other non-significant. Responses from 330 authors varied greatly, but interpretation was generally poor, whether results were presented as CIs or using NHST. However, when interpreting CIs respondents who mentioned NHST were 60% likely to conclude, unjustifiably, the two results conflicted, whereas those who interpreted CIs without reference to NHST were 95% likely to conclude, justifiably, the two results were consistent. Findings were generally similar for all three disciplines. An email survey of academic psychologists confirmed that CIs elicit better interpretations if NHST is not invoked. Improved statistical inference can result from encouragement of meta-analytic thinking and use of CIs but, for full benefit, such highly desirable statistical reform requires also that researchers interpret CIs without recourse to NHST.

Confidence interval estimation of the difference between two sensitivities to the early disease stage.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Tuochuan; Kang, Le; Hutson, Alan; Xiong, Chengjie; Tian, Lili

2014-03-01

Although most of the statistical methods for diagnostic studies focus on disease processes with binary disease status, many diseases can be naturally classified into three ordinal diagnostic categories, that is normal, early stage, and fully diseased. For such diseases, the volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is the most commonly used index of diagnostic accuracy. Because the early disease stage is most likely the optimal time window for therapeutic intervention, the sensitivity to the early diseased stage has been suggested as another diagnostic measure. For the purpose of comparing the diagnostic abilities on early disease detection between two markers, it is of interest to estimate the confidence interval of the difference between sensitivities to the early diseased stage. In this paper, we present both parametric and non-parametric methods for this purpose. An extensive simulation study is carried out for a variety of settings for the purpose of evaluating and comparing the performance of the proposed methods. A real example of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is analyzed using the proposed approaches. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

用Delta法估计多维测验合成信度的置信区间%Estimating the Confidence Interval of Composite Reliability of a Multidimensional Test With the Delta Method

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

叶宝娟; 温忠麟

2012-01-01

Reliability is very important in evaluating the quality of a test. Based on the confirmatory factor analysis, composite reliabili- ty is a good index to estimate the test reliability for general applications. As is well known, point estimate contains limited information a- bout a population parameter and cannot indicate how far it can be from the population parameter. The confidence interval of the parame- ter can provide more information. In evaluating the quality of a test, the confidence interval of composite reliability has received atten- tion in recent years. There are three approaches to estimating the confidence interval of composite reliability of an unidimensional test: the Bootstrap method, the Delta method, and the direct use of the standard error of a software output (e. g. , LISREL). The Bootstrap method pro- vides empirical results of the standard error, and is the most credible method. But it needs data simulation techniques, and its computa- tion process is rather complex. The Delta method computes the standard error of composite reliability by approximate calculation. It is simpler than the Bootstrap method. The LISREL software can directly prompt the standard error, and it is the easiest among the three methods. By simulation study, it had been found that the interval estimates obtained by the Delta method and the Bootstrap method were almost identical, whereas the results obtained by LISREL and by the Bootstrap method were substantially different ( Ye & Wen, 2011 ). The Delta method is recommended when the confidence interval of composite reliability of a unidimensional test is estimated, because the Delta method is simpler than the Bootstrap method. There was little research about how to compute the confidence interval of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. We de- duced a formula by using the Delta method for computing the standard error of composite reliability of a multidimensional test. Based on the standard error, the

Bayesian-statistical decision threshold, detection limit, and confidence interval in nuclear radiation measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weise, K.

1998-01-01

When a contribution of a particular nuclear radiation is to be detected, for instance, a spectral line of interest for some purpose of radiation protection, and quantities and their uncertainties must be taken into account which, such as influence quantities, cannot be determined by repeated measurements or by counting nuclear radiation events, then conventional statistics of event frequencies is not sufficient for defining the decision threshold, the detection limit, and the limits of a confidence interval. These characteristic limits are therefore redefined on the basis of Bayesian statistics for a wider applicability and in such a way that the usual practice remains as far as possible unaffected. The principle of maximum entropy is applied to establish probability distributions from available information. Quantiles of these distributions are used for defining the characteristic limits. But such a distribution must not be interpreted as a distribution of event frequencies such as the Poisson distribution. It rather expresses the actual state of incomplete knowledge of a physical quantity. The different definitions and interpretations and their quantitative consequences are presented and discussed with two examples. The new approach provides a theoretical basis for the DIN 25482-10 standard presently in preparation for general applications of the characteristic limits. (orig.) [de

PCA-based bootstrap confidence interval tests for gene-disease association involving multiple SNPs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xue Fuzhong

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic association study is currently the primary vehicle for identification and characterization of disease-predisposing variant(s which usually involves multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs available. However, SNP-wise association tests raise concerns over multiple testing. Haplotype-based methods have the advantage of being able to account for correlations between neighbouring SNPs, yet assuming Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE and potentially large number degrees of freedom can harm its statistical power and robustness. Approaches based on principal component analysis (PCA are preferable in this regard but their performance varies with methods of extracting principal components (PCs. Results PCA-based bootstrap confidence interval test (PCA-BCIT, which directly uses the PC scores to assess gene-disease association, was developed and evaluated for three ways of extracting PCs, i.e., cases only(CAES, controls only(COES and cases and controls combined(CES. Extraction of PCs with COES is preferred to that with CAES and CES. Performance of the test was examined via simulations as well as analyses on data of rheumatoid arthritis and heroin addiction, which maintains nominal level under null hypothesis and showed comparable performance with permutation test. Conclusions PCA-BCIT is a valid and powerful method for assessing gene-disease association involving multiple SNPs.

The Model Confidence Set

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS......, beyond the comparison of models. We apply the MCS procedure to two empirical problems. First, we revisit the inflation forecasting problem posed by Stock and Watson (1999), and compute the MCS for their set of inflation forecasts. Second, we compare a number of Taylor rule regressions and determine...... the MCS of the best in terms of in-sample likelihood criteria....

Perpetrator admissions and earwitness renditions: the effects of retention interval and rehearsal on accuracy of and confidence in memory for criminal accounts

OpenAIRE

Boydell, Carroll

2008-01-01

While much research has explored how well earwitnesses can identify the voice of a perpetrator, little research has examined how well they can recall details from a perpetrator’s confession. This study examines the accuracy-confidence correlation for memory for details from a perpetrator’s verbal account of a crime, as well as the effects of two variables commonly encountered in a criminal investigation (rehearsal and length of retention interval) on that correlation. Results suggest that con...

nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Temechegn

Altogether the test is made up of 40 items covering students' ability to recall definition ... confidence interval within which student have confidence in their choice of the .... is mentioned these equilibrium systems come to memory of the learner.

Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1986-01-01

This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)

A note on Nonparametric Confidence Interval for a Shift Parameter ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The method is illustrated using the Cauchy distribution as a location model. The kernel-based method is found to have a shorter interval for the shift parameter between two Cauchy distributions than the one based on the Mann-Whitney test statistic. Keywords: Best Asymptotic Normal; Cauchy distribution; Kernel estimates; ...

Predicting fecal coliform using the interval-to-interval approach and SWAT in the Miyun watershed, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Jianwen; Shen, Zhenyao; Yan, Tiezhu; Qiu, Jiali; Li, Yangyang

2017-06-01

Pathogens in manure can cause waterborne-disease outbreaks, serious illness, and even death in humans. Therefore, information about the transformation and transport of bacteria is crucial for determining their source. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate fecal coliform bacteria load in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, China. The data for the fecal coliform were obtained at three sampling sites, Chenying (CY), Gubeikou (GBK), and Xiahui (XH). The calibration processes of the fecal coliform were conducted using the CY and GBK sites, and validation was conducted at the XH site. An interval-to-interval approach was designed and incorporated into the processes of fecal coliform calibration and validation. The 95% confidence interval of the predicted values and the 95% confidence interval of measured values were considered during calibration and validation in the interval-to-interval approach. Compared with the traditional point-to-point comparison, this method can improve simulation accuracy. The results indicated that the simulation of fecal coliform using the interval-to-interval approach was reasonable for the watershed. This method could provide a new research direction for future model calibration and validation studies.

The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

Science.gov (United States)

Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

1998-09-01

To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

CONFIDENCE LEVELS AND/VS. STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. CASE STUDY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ILEANA BRUDIU

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Estimated parameters with confidence intervals and testing statistical assumptions used in statistical analysis to obtain conclusions on research from a sample extracted from the population. Paper to the case study presented aims to highlight the importance of volume of sample taken in the study and how this reflects on the results obtained when using confidence intervals and testing for pregnant. If statistical testing hypotheses not only give an answer "yes" or "no" to some questions of statistical estimation using statistical confidence intervals provides more information than a test statistic, show high degree of uncertainty arising from small samples and findings build in the "marginally significant" or "almost significant (p very close to 0.05.

Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

Science.gov (United States)

Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

AlphaCI: un programa de cálculo de intervalos de confianza para el coeficiente alfa de Cronbach AlphaCI: a computer program for computing confidence intervals around Cronbach's alfa coefficient

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rubén Ledesma

2004-06-01

Full Text Available El coeficiente alfa de Cronbach es el modo más habitual de estimar la fiabilidad de pruebas basadas en Teoría Clásica de los Test. En dicha estimación, los investigadores usualmente omiten informar intervalos de confianza para el coeficiente, un aspecto no solo recomendado por los especialistas, sino también requerido explícitamente en las normas editoriales de algunas revistas especializadas. Esta situación puede atribuirse a que los métodos de estimación de intervalos de confianza son poco conocidos, además de no estar disponibles al usuario en los programas estadísticos más populares. Así, en este trabajo se presenta un programa desarrollado dentro del sistema estadístico ViSta que permite calcular intervalos de confianza basados en el enfoque clásico y mediante la técnica bootstrap. Se espera promover la inclusión de intervalos de confianza para medidas de fiabilidad, facilitando el acceso a las herramientas necesarias para su aplicación. El programa es gratuito y puede obtenerse enviando un mail de solicitud al autor del trabajo.Cronbach's alpha coefficient is the most popular way of estimating reliability in measurement scales based on Classic Test Theory. When estimating it, researchers usually omit to report confidence intervals of this coefficient, as it is not only recommended by experts, but also required by some journal's guidelines. This situation is because the different methods of estimating confidence intervals are not well-known by researchers, as well as they are not being available among the most popular statistical packages. Therefore, this paper describes a computer program integrated into the ViSta statistical system, which allows computing confidence intervals based on the classical approach and using bootstrap technique. It is hoped that this work promotes the inclusion of confidence intervals of reliability measures, by increasing the availability of the required computer tools. The program is free and

Confidence limits for parameters of Poisson and binomial distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnett, L.M.

1976-04-01

The confidence limits for the frequency in a Poisson process and for the proportion of successes in a binomial process were calculated and tabulated for the situations in which the observed values of the frequency or proportion and an a priori distribution of these parameters are available. Methods are used that produce limits with exactly the stated confidence levels. The confidence interval [a,b] is calculated so that Pr [a less than or equal to lambda less than or equal to b c,μ], where c is the observed value of the parameter, and μ is the a priori hypothesis of the distribution of this parameter. A Bayesian type analysis is used. The intervals calculated are narrower and appreciably different from results, known to be conservative, that are often used in problems of this type. Pearson and Hartley recognized the characteristics of their methods and contemplated that exact methods could someday be used. The calculation of the exact intervals requires involved numerical analyses readily implemented only on digital computers not available to Pearson and Hartley. A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to verify a selected interval from those calculated. This numerical experiment confirmed the results of the analytical methods and the prediction of Pearson and Hartley that their published tables give conservative results

R package to estimate intracluster correlation coefficient with confidence interval for binary data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chakraborty, Hrishikesh; Hossain, Akhtar

2018-03-01

The Intracluster Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is a major parameter of interest in cluster randomized trials that measures the degree to which responses within the same cluster are correlated. There are several types of ICC estimators and its confidence intervals (CI) suggested in the literature for binary data. Studies have compared relative weaknesses and advantages of ICC estimators as well as its CI for binary data and suggested situations where one is advantageous in practical research. The commonly used statistical computing systems currently facilitate estimation of only a very few variants of ICC and its CI. To address the limitations of current statistical packages, we developed an R package, ICCbin, to facilitate estimating ICC and its CI for binary responses using different methods. The ICCbin package is designed to provide estimates of ICC in 16 different ways including analysis of variance methods, moments based estimation, direct probabilistic methods, correlation based estimation, and resampling method. CI of ICC is estimated using 5 different methods. It also generates cluster binary data using exchangeable correlation structure. ICCbin package provides two functions for users. The function rcbin() generates cluster binary data and the function iccbin() estimates ICC and it's CI. The users can choose appropriate ICC and its CI estimate from the wide selection of estimates from the outputs. The R package ICCbin presents very flexible and easy to use ways to generate cluster binary data and to estimate ICC and it's CI for binary response using different methods. The package ICCbin is freely available for use with R from the CRAN repository (https://cran.r-project.org/package=ICCbin). We believe that this package can be a very useful tool for researchers to design cluster randomized trials with binary outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Confidence bands for inverse regression models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo

2010-01-01

We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract

Factorial-based response-surface modeling with confidence intervals for optimizing thermal-optical transmission analysis of atmospheric black carbon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conny, J.M.; Norris, G.A.; Gould, T.R.

2009-01-01

Thermal-optical transmission (TOT) analysis measures black carbon (BC) in atmospheric aerosol on a fibrous filter. The method pyrolyzes organic carbon (OC) and employs laser light absorption to distinguish BC from the pyrolyzed OC; however, the instrument does not necessarily separate the two physically. In addition, a comprehensive temperature protocol for the analysis based on the Beer-Lambert Law remains elusive. Here, empirical response-surface modeling was used to show how the temperature protocol in TOT analysis can be modified to distinguish pyrolyzed OC from BC based on the Beer-Lambert Law. We determined the apparent specific absorption cross sections for pyrolyzed OC (σ Char ) and BC (σ BC ), which accounted for individual absorption enhancement effects within the filter. Response-surface models of these cross sections were derived from a three-factor central-composite factorial experimental design: temperature and duration of the high-temperature step in the helium phase, and the heating increase in the helium-oxygen phase. The response surface for σ BC , which varied with instrument conditions, revealed a ridge indicating the correct conditions for OC pyrolysis in helium. The intersection of the σ BC and σ Char surfaces indicated the conditions where the cross sections were equivalent, satisfying an important assumption upon which the method relies. 95% confidence interval surfaces defined a confidence region for a range of pyrolysis conditions. Analyses of wintertime samples from Seattle, WA revealed a temperature between 830 deg. C and 850 deg. C as most suitable for the helium high-temperature step lasting 150 s. However, a temperature as low as 750 deg. C could not be rejected statistically

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: "P" values, statistical significance and confidence intervals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Priya Ranganathan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In the second part of a series on pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at various ways in which a statistically significant study result can be expressed. We debunk some of the myths regarding the ′P′ value, explain the importance of ′confidence intervals′ and clarify the importance of including both values in a paper

Estimating confidence intervals in predicted responses for oscillatory biological models.

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St John, Peter C; Doyle, Francis J

2013-07-29

The dynamics of gene regulation play a crucial role in a cellular control: allowing the cell to express the right proteins to meet changing needs. Some needs, such as correctly anticipating the day-night cycle, require complicated oscillatory features. In the analysis of gene regulatory networks, mathematical models are frequently used to understand how a network's structure enables it to respond appropriately to external inputs. These models typically consist of a set of ordinary differential equations, describing a network of biochemical reactions, and unknown kinetic parameters, chosen such that the model best captures experimental data. However, since a model's parameter values are uncertain, and since dynamic responses to inputs are highly parameter-dependent, it is difficult to assess the confidence associated with these in silico predictions. In particular, models with complex dynamics - such as oscillations - must be fit with computationally expensive global optimization routines, and cannot take advantage of existing measures of identifiability. Despite their difficulty to model mathematically, limit cycle oscillations play a key role in many biological processes, including cell cycling, metabolism, neuron firing, and circadian rhythms. In this study, we employ an efficient parameter estimation technique to enable a bootstrap uncertainty analysis for limit cycle models. Since the primary role of systems biology models is the insight they provide on responses to rate perturbations, we extend our uncertainty analysis to include first order sensitivity coefficients. Using a literature model of circadian rhythms, we show how predictive precision is degraded with decreasing sample points and increasing relative error. Additionally, we show how this method can be used for model discrimination by comparing the output identifiability of two candidate model structures to published literature data. Our method permits modellers of oscillatory systems to confidently

Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

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Steve Verrill

2003-01-01

This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

A computer program (COSTUM) to calculate confidence intervals for in situ stress measurements. V. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dzik, E.J.; Walker, J.R.; Martin, C.D.

1989-03-01

The state of in situ stress is one of the parameters required both for the design and analysis of underground excavations and for the evaluation of numerical models used to simulate underground conditions. To account for the variability and uncertainty of in situ stress measurements, it is desirable to apply confidence limits to measured stresses. Several measurements of the state of stress along a borehole are often made to estimate the average state of stress at a point. Since stress is a tensor, calculating the mean stress and confidence limits using scalar techniques is inappropriate as well as incorrect. A computer program has been written to calculate and present the mean principle stresses and the confidence limits for the magnitudes and directions of the mean principle stresses. This report describes the computer program, COSTUM

Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

2015-01-01

An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: “P” values, statistical significance and confidence intervals

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Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

2015-01-01

In the second part of a series on pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at various ways in which a statistically significant study result can be expressed. We debunk some of the myths regarding the ‘P’ value, explain the importance of ‘confidence intervals’ and clarify the importance of including both values in a paper PMID:25878958

Using Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance to Select Social-Cognitive Determinants for Behavior Change Interventions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rik Crutzen

2017-07-01

Full Text Available When developing an intervention aimed at behavior change, one of the crucial steps in the development process is to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants. These determinants can be seen as the buttons one needs to push to establish behavior change. Insight into these determinants is needed to select behavior change methods (i.e., general behavior change techniques that are applied in an intervention in the development process. Therefore, a study on determinants is often conducted as formative research in the intervention development process. Ideally, all relevant determinants identified in such a study are addressed by an intervention. However, when developing a behavior change intervention, there are limits in terms of, for example, resources available for intervention development and the amount of content that participants of an intervention can be exposed to. Hence, it is important to select those determinants that are most relevant to the target behavior as these determinants should be addressed in an intervention. The aim of the current paper is to introduce a novel approach to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants and use them in intervention development. This approach is based on visualization of confidence intervals for the means and correlation coefficients for all determinants simultaneously. This visualization facilitates comparison, which is necessary when making selections. By means of a case study on the determinants of using a high dose of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly known as ecstasy, we illustrate this approach. We provide a freely available tool to facilitate the analyses needed in this approach.

Using Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance to Select Social-Cognitive Determinants for Behavior Change Interventions.

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Crutzen, Rik; Peters, Gjalt-Jorn Ygram; Noijen, Judith

2017-01-01

When developing an intervention aimed at behavior change, one of the crucial steps in the development process is to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants. These determinants can be seen as the buttons one needs to push to establish behavior change. Insight into these determinants is needed to select behavior change methods (i.e., general behavior change techniques that are applied in an intervention) in the development process. Therefore, a study on determinants is often conducted as formative research in the intervention development process. Ideally, all relevant determinants identified in such a study are addressed by an intervention. However, when developing a behavior change intervention, there are limits in terms of, for example, resources available for intervention development and the amount of content that participants of an intervention can be exposed to. Hence, it is important to select those determinants that are most relevant to the target behavior as these determinants should be addressed in an intervention. The aim of the current paper is to introduce a novel approach to select the most relevant social-cognitive determinants and use them in intervention development. This approach is based on visualization of confidence intervals for the means and correlation coefficients for all determinants simultaneously. This visualization facilitates comparison, which is necessary when making selections. By means of a case study on the determinants of using a high dose of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly known as ecstasy), we illustrate this approach. We provide a freely available tool to facilitate the analyses needed in this approach.

Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne

2004-01-01

A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian distri...

Confidence intervals for effect sizes: compliance and clinical significance in the Journal of Consulting and clinical Psychology.

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Odgaard, Eric C; Fowler, Robert L

2010-06-01

In 2005, the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology (JCCP) became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest editorial effort to improve statistical reporting practices in any APA journal in at least a decade, in this article we investigate the efficacy of that change. All intervention studies published in JCCP in 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008 were reviewed. Each article was coded for method of clinical significance, type of ES, and type of associated CI, broken down by statistical test (F, t, chi-square, r/R(2), and multivariate modeling). By 2008, clinical significance compliance was 75% (up from 31%), with 94% of studies reporting some measure of ES (reporting improved for individual statistical tests ranging from eta(2) = .05 to .17, with reasonable CIs). Reporting of CIs for ESs also improved, although only to 40%. Also, the vast majority of reported CIs used approximations, which become progressively less accurate for smaller sample sizes and larger ESs (cf. Algina & Kessleman, 2003). Changes are near asymptote for ESs and clinical significance, but CIs lag behind. As CIs for ESs are required for primary outcomes, we show how to compute CIs for the vast majority of ESs reported in JCCP, with an example of how to use CIs for ESs as a method to assess clinical significance.

Determination of confidence limits for experiments with low numbers of counts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kraft, R.P.; Burrows, D.N.; Nousek, J.A.

1991-01-01

Two different methods, classical and Bayesian, for determining confidence intervals involving Poisson-distributed data are compared. Particular consideration is given to cases where the number of counts observed is small and is comparable to the mean number of background counts. Reasons for preferring the Bayesian over the classical method are given. Tables of confidence limits calculated by the Bayesian method are provided for quick reference. 12 refs

Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

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Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

2015-10-01

Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

Incidence of interval cancers in faecal immunochemical test colorectal screening programmes in Italy.

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Giorgi Rossi, Paolo; Carretta, Elisa; Mangone, Lucia; Baracco, Susanna; Serraino, Diego; Zorzi, Manuel

2018-03-01

Objective In Italy, colorectal screening programmes using the faecal immunochemical test from ages 50 to 69 every two years have been in place since 2005. We aimed to measure the incidence of interval cancers in the two years after a negative faecal immunochemical test, and compare this with the pre-screening incidence of colorectal cancer. Methods Using data on colorectal cancers diagnosed in Italy from 2000 to 2008 collected by cancer registries in areas with active screening programmes, we identified cases that occurred within 24 months of negative screening tests. We used the number of tests with a negative result as a denominator, grouped by age and sex. Proportional incidence was calculated for the first and second year after screening. Results Among 579,176 and 226,738 persons with negative test results followed up at 12 and 24 months, respectively, we identified 100 interval cancers in the first year and 70 in the second year. The proportional incidence was 13% (95% confidence interval 10-15) and 23% (95% confidence interval 18-25), respectively. The estimate for the two-year incidence is 18%, which was slightly higher in females (22%; 95% confidence interval 17-26), and for proximal colon (22%; 95% confidence interval 16-28). Conclusion The incidence of interval cancers in the two years after a negative faecal immunochemical test in routine population-based colorectal cancer screening was less than one-fifth of the expected incidence. This is direct evidence that the faecal immunochemical test-based screening programme protocol has high sensitivity for cancers that will become symptomatic.

A spreadsheet template compatible with Microsoft Excel and iWork Numbers that returns the simultaneous confidence intervals for all pairwise differences between multiple sample means.

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Brown, Angus M

2010-04-01

The objective of the method described in this paper is to develop a spreadsheet template for the purpose of comparing multiple sample means. An initial analysis of variance (ANOVA) test on the data returns F--the test statistic. If F is larger than the critical F value drawn from the F distribution at the appropriate degrees of freedom, convention dictates rejection of the null hypothesis and allows subsequent multiple comparison testing to determine where the inequalities between the sample means lie. A variety of multiple comparison methods are described that return the 95% confidence intervals for differences between means using an inclusive pairwise comparison of the sample means. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination and Interpretation of Characteristic Limits for Radioactivity Measurements: Decision Threshhold, Detection Limit and Limits of the Confidence Interval

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2017-01-01

Since 2004, the environment programme of the IAEA has included activities aimed at developing a set of procedures for analytical measurements of radionuclides in food and the environment. Reliable, comparable and fit for purpose results are essential for any analytical measurement. Guidelines and national and international standards for laboratory practices to fulfil quality assurance requirements are extremely important when performing such measurements. The guidelines and standards should be comprehensive, clearly formulated and readily available to both the analyst and the customer. ISO 11929:2010 is the international standard on the determination of the characteristic limits (decision threshold, detection limit and limits of the confidence interval) for measuring ionizing radiation. For nuclear analytical laboratories involved in the measurement of radioactivity in food and the environment, robust determination of the characteristic limits of radioanalytical techniques is essential with regard to national and international regulations on permitted levels of radioactivity. However, characteristic limits defined in ISO 11929:2010 are complex, and the correct application of the standard in laboratories requires a full understanding of various concepts. This publication provides additional information to Member States in the understanding of the terminology, definitions and concepts in ISO 11929:2010, thus facilitating its implementation in Member State laboratories.

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the concordance correlation coefficient and intraclass correlation coefficient with small number of raters.

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Feng, Dai; Svetnik, Vladimir; Coimbra, Alexandre; Baumgartner, Richard

2014-01-01

The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) with fixed raters or, equivalently, the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) for continuous outcomes is a widely accepted aggregate index of agreement in settings with small number of raters. Quantifying the precision of the CCC by constructing its confidence interval (CI) is important in early drug development applications, in particular in qualification of biomarker platforms. In recent years, there have been several new methods proposed for construction of CIs for the CCC, but their comprehensive comparison has not been attempted. The methods consisted of the delta method and jackknifing with and without Fisher's Z-transformation, respectively, and Bayesian methods with vague priors. In this study, we carried out a simulation study, with data simulated from multivariate normal as well as heavier tailed distribution (t-distribution with 5 degrees of freedom), to compare the state-of-the-art methods for assigning CI to the CCC. When the data are normally distributed, the jackknifing with Fisher's Z-transformation (JZ) tended to provide superior coverage and the difference between it and the closest competitor, the Bayesian method with the Jeffreys prior was in general minimal. For the nonnormal data, the jackknife methods, especially the JZ method, provided the coverage probabilities closest to the nominal in contrast to the others which yielded overly liberal coverage. Approaches based upon the delta method and Bayesian method with conjugate prior generally provided slightly narrower intervals and larger lower bounds than others, though this was offset by their poor coverage. Finally, we illustrated the utility of the CIs for the CCC in an example of a wake after sleep onset (WASO) biomarker, which is frequently used in clinical sleep studies of drugs for treatment of insomnia.

The integrated model of sport confidence: a canonical correlation and mediational analysis.

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Koehn, Stefan; Pearce, Alan J; Morris, Tony

2013-12-01

The main purpose of the study was to examine crucial parts of Vealey's (2001) integrated framework hypothesizing that sport confidence is a mediating variable between sources of sport confidence (including achievement, self-regulation, and social climate) and athletes' affect in competition. The sample consisted of 386 athletes, who completed the Sources of Sport Confidence Questionnaire, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Canonical correlation analysis revealed a confidence-achievement dimension underlying flow. Bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals in AMOS 20.0 were used in examining mediation effects between source domains and dispositional flow. Results showed that sport confidence partially mediated the relationship between achievement and self-regulation domains and flow, whereas no significant mediation was found for social climate. On a subscale level, full mediation models emerged for achievement and flow dimensions of challenge-skills balance, clear goals, and concentration on the task at hand.

Bootstrap Signal-to-Noise Confidence Intervals: An Objective Method for Subject Exclusion and Quality Control in ERP Studies

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Parks, Nathan A.; Gannon, Matthew A.; Long, Stephanie M.; Young, Madeleine E.

2016-01-01

Analysis of event-related potential (ERP) data includes several steps to ensure that ERPs meet an appropriate level of signal quality. One such step, subject exclusion, rejects subject data if ERP waveforms fail to meet an appropriate level of signal quality. Subject exclusion is an important quality control step in the ERP analysis pipeline as it ensures that statistical inference is based only upon those subjects exhibiting clear evoked brain responses. This critical quality control step is most often performed simply through visual inspection of subject-level ERPs by investigators. Such an approach is qualitative, subjective, and susceptible to investigator bias, as there are no standards as to what constitutes an ERP of sufficient signal quality. Here, we describe a standardized and objective method for quantifying waveform quality in individual subjects and establishing criteria for subject exclusion. The approach uses bootstrap resampling of ERP waveforms (from a pool of all available trials) to compute a signal-to-noise ratio confidence interval (SNR-CI) for individual subject waveforms. The lower bound of this SNR-CI (SNRLB) yields an effective and objective measure of signal quality as it ensures that ERP waveforms statistically exceed a desired signal-to-noise criterion. SNRLB provides a quantifiable metric of individual subject ERP quality and eliminates the need for subjective evaluation of waveform quality by the investigator. We detail the SNR-CI methodology, establish the efficacy of employing this approach with Monte Carlo simulations, and demonstrate its utility in practice when applied to ERP datasets. PMID:26903849

Microvascular anastomosis simulation using a chicken thigh model: Interval versus massed training.

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Schoeff, Stephen; Hernandez, Brian; Robinson, Derek J; Jameson, Mark J; Shonka, David C

2017-11-01

To compare the effectiveness of massed versus interval training when teaching otolaryngology residents microvascular suturing on a validated microsurgical model. Otolaryngology residents were placed into interval (n = 7) or massed (n = 7) training groups. The interval group performed three separate 30-minute practice sessions separated by at least 1 week, and the massed group performed a single 90-minute practice session. Both groups viewed a video demonstration and recorded a pretest prior to the first training session. A post-test was administered following the last practice session. At an academic medical center, 14 otolaryngology residents were assigned using stratified randomization to interval or massed training. Blinded evaluators graded performance using a validated microvascular Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skill tool. The tool is comprised of two major components: task-specific score (TSS) and global rating scale (GRS). Participants also received pre- and poststudy surveys to compare subjective confidence in multiple aspects of microvascular skill acquisition. Overall, all residents showed increased TSS and GRS on post- versus pretest. After completion of training, the interval group had a statistically significant increase in both TSS and GRS, whereas the massed group's increase was not significant. Residents in both groups reported significantly increased levels of confidence after completion of the study. Self-directed learning using a chicken thigh artery model may benefit microsurgical skills, competence, and confidence for resident surgeons. Interval training results in significant improvement in early development of microvascular anastomosis skills, whereas massed training does not. NA. Laryngoscope, 127:2490-2494, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

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Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Predictor sort sampling and one-sided confidence bounds on quantiles

Science.gov (United States)

Steve Verrill; Victoria L. Herian; David W. Green

2002-01-01

Predictor sort experiments attempt to make use of the correlation between a predictor that can be measured prior to the start of an experiment and the response variable that we are investigating. Properly designed and analyzed, they can reduce necessary sample sizes, increase statistical power, and reduce the lengths of confidence intervals. However, if the non- random...

Five-band microwave radiometer system for noninvasive brain temperature measurement in newborn babies: Phantom experiment and confidence interval

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Sugiura, T.; Hirata, H.; Hand, J. W.; van Leeuwen, J. M. J.; Mizushina, S.

2011-10-01

Clinical trials of hypothermic brain treatment for newborn babies are currently hindered by the difficulty in measuring deep brain temperatures. As one of the possible methods for noninvasive and continuous temperature monitoring that is completely passive and inherently safe is passive microwave radiometry (MWR). We have developed a five-band microwave radiometer system with a single dual-polarized, rectangular waveguide antenna operating within the 1-4 GHz range and a method for retrieving the temperature profile from five radiometric brightness temperatures. This paper addresses (1) the temperature calibration for five microwave receivers, (2) the measurement experiment using a phantom model that mimics the temperature profile in a newborn baby, and (3) the feasibility for noninvasive monitoring of deep brain temperatures. Temperature resolutions were 0.103, 0.129, 0.138, 0.105 and 0.111 K for 1.2, 1.65, 2.3, 3.0 and 3.6 GHz receivers, respectively. The precision of temperature estimation (2σ confidence interval) was about 0.7°C at a 5-cm depth from the phantom surface. Accuracy, which is the difference between the estimated temperature using this system and the measured temperature by a thermocouple at a depth of 5 cm, was about 2°C. The current result is not satisfactory for clinical application because the clinical requirement for accuracy must be better than 1°C for both precision and accuracy at a depth of 5 cm. Since a couple of possible causes for this inaccuracy have been identified, we believe that the system can take a step closer to the clinical application of MWR for hypothermic rescue treatment.

Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa B Gilkey

Full Text Available To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents.We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR, varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status.A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15% or delay (27%. Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63 as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86. Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68, varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66, and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42.Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.

The Confidence-Accuracy Relationship for Eyewitness Identification Decisions: Effects of Exposure Duration, Retention Interval, and Divided Attention

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Palmer, Matthew A.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Nagesh, Ambika

2013-01-01

Prior research points to a meaningful confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship for positive identification decisions. However, there are theoretical grounds for expecting that different aspects of the CA relationship (calibration, resolution, and over/underconfidence) might be undermined in some circumstances. This research investigated whether the…

Interpregnancy interval and risk of autistic disorder.

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Gunnes, Nina; Surén, Pål; Bresnahan, Michaeline; Hornig, Mady; Lie, Kari Kveim; Lipkin, W Ian; Magnus, Per; Nilsen, Roy Miodini; Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted; Schjølberg, Synnve; Susser, Ezra Saul; Øyen, Anne-Siri; Stoltenberg, Camilla

2013-11-01

A recent California study reported increased risk of autistic disorder in children conceived within a year after the birth of a sibling. We assessed the association between interpregnancy interval and risk of autistic disorder using nationwide registry data on pairs of singleton full siblings born in Norway. We defined interpregnancy interval as the time from birth of the first-born child to conception of the second-born child in a sibship. The outcome of interest was autistic disorder in the second-born child. Analyses were restricted to sibships in which the second-born child was born in 1990-2004. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by fitting ordinary logistic models and logistic generalized additive models. The study sample included 223,476 singleton full-sibling pairs. In sibships with interpregnancy intervals autistic disorder, compared with 0.13% in the reference category (≥ 36 months). For interpregnancy intervals shorter than 9 months, the adjusted OR of autistic disorder in the second-born child was 2.18 (95% confidence interval 1.42-3.26). The risk of autistic disorder in the second-born child was also increased for interpregnancy intervals of 9-11 months in the adjusted analysis (OR = 1.71 [95% CI = 1.07-2.64]). Consistent with a previous report from California, interpregnancy intervals shorter than 1 year were associated with increased risk of autistic disorder in the second-born child. A possible explanation is depletion of micronutrients in mothers with closely spaced pregnancies.

Power, effects, confidence, and significance: an investigation of statistical practices in nursing research.

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Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

2014-05-01

To (a) assess the statistical power of nursing research to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes; (b) estimate the experiment-wise Type I error rate in these studies; and (c) assess the extent to which (i) a priori power analyses, (ii) effect sizes (and interpretations thereof), and (iii) confidence intervals were reported. Statistical review. Papers published in the 2011 volumes of the 10 highest ranked nursing journals, based on their 5-year impact factors. Papers were assessed for statistical power, control of experiment-wise Type I error, reporting of a priori power analyses, reporting and interpretation of effect sizes, and reporting of confidence intervals. The analyses were based on 333 papers, from which 10,337 inferential statistics were identified. The median power to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes was .40 (interquartile range [IQR]=.24-.71), .98 (IQR=.85-1.00), and 1.00 (IQR=1.00-1.00), respectively. The median experiment-wise Type I error rate was .54 (IQR=.26-.80). A priori power analyses were reported in 28% of papers. Effect sizes were routinely reported for Spearman's rank correlations (100% of papers in which this test was used), Poisson regressions (100%), odds ratios (100%), Kendall's tau correlations (100%), Pearson's correlations (99%), logistic regressions (98%), structural equation modelling/confirmatory factor analyses/path analyses (97%), and linear regressions (83%), but were reported less often for two-proportion z tests (50%), analyses of variance/analyses of covariance/multivariate analyses of variance (18%), t tests (8%), Wilcoxon's tests (8%), Chi-squared tests (8%), and Fisher's exact tests (7%), and not reported for sign tests, Friedman's tests, McNemar's tests, multi-level models, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Effect sizes were infrequently interpreted. Confidence intervals were reported in 28% of papers. The use, reporting, and interpretation of inferential statistics in nursing research need substantial

Assessing Mediational Models: Testing and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects.

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Biesanz, Jeremy C; Falk, Carl F; Savalei, Victoria

2010-08-06

Theoretical models specifying indirect or mediated effects are common in the social sciences. An indirect effect exists when an independent variable's influence on the dependent variable is mediated through an intervening variable. Classic approaches to assessing such mediational hypotheses ( Baron & Kenny, 1986 ; Sobel, 1982 ) have in recent years been supplemented by computationally intensive methods such as bootstrapping, the distribution of the product methods, and hierarchical Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. These different approaches for assessing mediation are illustrated using data from Dunn, Biesanz, Human, and Finn (2007). However, little is known about how these methods perform relative to each other, particularly in more challenging situations, such as with data that are incomplete and/or nonnormal. This article presents an extensive Monte Carlo simulation evaluating a host of approaches for assessing mediation. We examine Type I error rates, power, and coverage. We study normal and nonnormal data as well as complete and incomplete data. In addition, we adapt a method, recently proposed in statistical literature, that does not rely on confidence intervals (CIs) to test the null hypothesis of no indirect effect. The results suggest that the new inferential method-the partial posterior p value-slightly outperforms existing ones in terms of maintaining Type I error rates while maximizing power, especially with incomplete data. Among confidence interval approaches, the bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrapping approach often has inflated Type I error rates and inconsistent coverage and is not recommended; In contrast, the bootstrapped percentile confidence interval and the hierarchical Bayesian MCMC method perform best overall, maintaining Type I error rates, exhibiting reasonable power, and producing stable and accurate coverage rates.

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies.

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Kottas, Martina; Kuss, Oliver; Zapf, Antonia

2014-02-19

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used.

Parents' obesity-related behavior and confidence to support behavioral change in their obese child: data from the STAR study.

Science.gov (United States)

Arsenault, Lisa N; Xu, Kathleen; Taveras, Elsie M; Hacker, Karen A

2014-01-01

Successful childhood obesity interventions frequently focus on behavioral modification and involve parents or family members. Parental confidence in supporting behavior change may be an element of successful family-based prevention efforts. We aimed to determine whether parents' own obesity-related behaviors were related to their confidence in supporting their child's achievement of obesity-related behavioral goals. Cross-sectional analyses of data collected at baseline of a randomized control trial testing a treatment intervention for obese children (n = 787) in primary care settings (n = 14). Five obesity-related behaviors (physical activity, screen time, sugar-sweetened beverage, sleep duration, fast food) were self-reported by parents for themselves and their child. Behaviors were dichotomized on the basis of achievement of behavioral goals. Five confidence questions asked how confident the parent was in helping their child achieve each goal. Logistic regression modeling high confidence was conducted with goal achievement and demographics as independent variables. Parents achieving physical activity or sleep duration goals were significantly more likely to be highly confident in supporting their child's achievement of those goals (physical activity, odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.60; sleep, odds ratio 1.74; 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.79) independent of sociodemographic variables and child's current behavior. Parental achievements of TV watching and fast food goals were also associated with confidence, but significance was attenuated after child's behavior was included in models. Parents' own obesity-related behaviors are factors that may affect their confidence to support their child's behavior change. Providers seeking to prevent childhood obesity should address parent/family behaviors as part of their obesity prevention strategies. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interpretando correctamente en salud pública estimaciones puntuales, intervalos de confianza y contrastes de hipótesis Accurate interpretation of point estimates, confidence intervals, and hypothesis tests in public health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel G Scotto

2003-12-01

Full Text Available El presente ensayo trata de aclarar algunos conceptos utilizados habitualmente en el campo de investigación de la salud pública, que en numerosas situaciones son interpretados de manera incorrecta. Entre ellos encontramos la estimación puntual, los intervalos de confianza, y los contrastes de hipótesis. Estableciendo un paralelismo entre estos tres conceptos, podemos observar cuáles son sus diferencias más importantes a la hora de ser interpretados, tanto desde el punto de vista del enfoque clásico como desde la óptica bayesiana.This essay reviews some statistical concepts frequently used in public health research that are commonly misinterpreted. These include point estimates, confidence intervals, and hypothesis tests. By comparing them using the classical and the Bayesian perspectives, their interpretation becomes clearer.

QT interval in healthy dogs: which method of correcting the QT interval in dogs is appropriate for use in small animal clinics?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maira S. Oliveira

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The electrocardiography (ECG QT interval is influenced by fluctuations in heart rate (HR what may lead to misinterpretation of its length. Considering that alterations in QT interval length reflect abnormalities of the ventricular repolarisation which predispose to occurrence of arrhythmias, this variable must be properly evaluated. The aim of this work is to determine which method of correcting the QT interval is the most appropriate for dogs regarding different ranges of normal HR (different breeds. Healthy adult dogs (n=130; German Shepherd, Boxer, Pit Bull Terrier, and Poodle were submitted to ECG examination and QT intervals were determined in triplicates from the bipolar limb II lead and corrected for the effects of HR through the application of three published formulae involving quadratic, cubic or linear regression. The mean corrected QT values (QTc obtained using the diverse formulae were significantly different (ρ<0.05, while those derived according to the equation QTcV = QT + 0.087(1- RR were the most consistent (linear regression. QTcV values were strongly correlated (r=0.83 with the QT interval and showed a coefficient of variation of 8.37% and a 95% confidence interval of 0.22-0.23 s. Owing to its simplicity and reliability, the QTcV was considered the most appropriate to be used for the correction of QT interval in dogs.

Confidant Relations in Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenny Isaacs

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

Method for calculating the variance and prediction intervals for biomass estimates obtained from allometric equations

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Kirton, A

2010-08-01

Full Text Available for calculating the variance and prediction intervals for biomass estimates obtained from allometric equations A KIRTON B SCHOLES S ARCHIBALD CSIR Ecosystem Processes and Dynamics, Natural Resources and the Environment P.O. BOX 395, Pretoria, 0001, South... intervals (confidence intervals for predicted values) for allometric estimates can be obtained using an example of estimating tree biomass from stem diameter. It explains how to deal with relationships which are in the power function form - a common form...

Haematological and biochemical reference intervals for free-ranging brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Sweden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Græsli, Anne Randi; Fahlman, Åsa; Evans, Alina L.

2014-01-01

BackgroundEstablishment of haematological and biochemical reference intervals is important to assess health of animals on individual and population level. Reference intervals for 13 haematological and 34 biochemical variables were established based on 88 apparently healthy free-ranging brown bears...... and marking for ecological studies. For each of the variables, the reference interval was described based on the 95% confidence interval, and differences due to host characteristics sex and age were included if detected. To our knowledge, this is the first report of reference intervals for free-ranging brown...... and the differences due to host factors age and gender can be useful for evaluation of health status in free-ranging European brown bears....

Identifying the bad guy in a lineup using confidence judgments under deadline pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan; Wootton, David; Lindsay, D Stephen

2012-10-01

Eyewitness-identification tests often culminate in witnesses not picking the culprit or identifying innocent suspects. We tested a radical alternative to the traditional lineup procedure used in such tests. Rather than making a positive identification, witnesses made confidence judgments under a short deadline about whether each lineup member was the culprit. We compared this deadline procedure with the traditional sequential-lineup procedure in three experiments with retention intervals ranging from 5 min to 1 week. A classification algorithm that identified confidence criteria that optimally discriminated accurate from inaccurate decisions revealed that decision accuracy was 24% to 66% higher under the deadline procedure than under the traditional procedure. Confidence profiles across lineup stimuli were more informative than were identification decisions about the likelihood that an individual witness recognized the culprit or correctly recognized that the culprit was not present. Large differences between the maximum and the next-highest confidence value signaled very high accuracy. Future support for this procedure across varied conditions would highlight a viable alternative to the problematic lineup procedures that have traditionally been used by law enforcement.

"Normality of Residuals Is a Continuous Variable, and Does Seem to Influence the Trustworthiness of Confidence Intervals: A Response to, and Appreciation of, Williams, Grajales, and Kurkiewicz (2013"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason W. Osborne

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Osborne and Waters (2002 focused on checking some of the assumptions of multiple linear.regression. In a critique of that paper, Williams, Grajales, and Kurkiewicz correctly clarify that.regression models estimated using ordinary least squares require the assumption of normally.distributed errors, but not the assumption of normally distributed response or predictor variables..They go on to discuss estimate bias and provide a helpful summary of the assumptions of multiple.regression when using ordinary least squares. While we were not as precise as we could have been.when discussing assumptions of normality, the critical issue of the 2002 paper remains -' researchers.often do not check on or report on the assumptions of their statistical methods. This response.expands on the points made by Williams, advocates a thorough examination of data prior to.reporting results, and provides an example of how incremental improvements in meeting the.assumption of normality of residuals incrementally improves the accuracy of confidence intervals.

Zero- vs. one-dimensional, parametric vs. non-parametric, and confidence interval vs. hypothesis testing procedures in one-dimensional biomechanical trajectory analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pataky, Todd C; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Robinson, Mark A

2015-05-01

Biomechanical processes are often manifested as one-dimensional (1D) trajectories. It has been shown that 1D confidence intervals (CIs) are biased when based on 0D statistical procedures, and the non-parametric 1D bootstrap CI has emerged in the Biomechanics literature as a viable solution. The primary purpose of this paper was to clarify that, for 1D biomechanics datasets, the distinction between 0D and 1D methods is much more important than the distinction between parametric and non-parametric procedures. A secondary purpose was to demonstrate that a parametric equivalent to the 1D bootstrap exists in the form of a random field theory (RFT) correction for multiple comparisons. To emphasize these points we analyzed six datasets consisting of force and kinematic trajectories in one-sample, paired, two-sample and regression designs. Results showed, first, that the 1D bootstrap and other 1D non-parametric CIs were qualitatively identical to RFT CIs, and all were very different from 0D CIs. Second, 1D parametric and 1D non-parametric hypothesis testing results were qualitatively identical for all six datasets. Last, we highlight the limitations of 1D CIs by demonstrating that they are complex, design-dependent, and thus non-generalizable. These results suggest that (i) analyses of 1D data based on 0D models of randomness are generally biased unless one explicitly identifies 0D variables before the experiment, and (ii) parametric and non-parametric 1D hypothesis testing provide an unambiguous framework for analysis when one׳s hypothesis explicitly or implicitly pertains to whole 1D trajectories. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abstract: Inference and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects With Latent Variable Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Carl F; Biesanz, Jeremy C

2011-11-30

Models specifying indirect effects (or mediation) and structural equation modeling are both popular in the social sciences. Yet relatively little research has compared methods that test for indirect effects among latent variables and provided precise estimates of the effectiveness of different methods. This simulation study provides an extensive comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals and for making inferences about indirect effects with latent variables. We compared the percentile (PC) bootstrap, bias-corrected (BC) bootstrap, bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrap, likelihood-based confidence intervals (Neale & Miller, 1997), partial posterior predictive (Biesanz, Falk, and Savalei, 2010), and joint significance tests based on Wald tests or likelihood ratio tests. All models included three reflective latent variables representing the independent, dependent, and mediating variables. The design included the following fully crossed conditions: (a) sample size: 100, 200, and 500; (b) number of indicators per latent variable: 3 versus 5; (c) reliability per set of indicators: .7 versus .9; (d) and 16 different path combinations for the indirect effect (α = 0, .14, .39, or .59; and β = 0, .14, .39, or .59). Simulations were performed using a WestGrid cluster of 1680 3.06GHz Intel Xeon processors running R and OpenMx. Results based on 1,000 replications per cell and 2,000 resamples per bootstrap method indicated that the BC and BC a bootstrap methods have inflated Type I error rates. Likelihood-based confidence intervals and the PC bootstrap emerged as methods that adequately control Type I error and have good coverage rates.

Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kreinovich, Vladik (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Oberkampf, William Louis (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ginzburg, Lev (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ferson, Scott (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Hajagos, Janos (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York)

2007-05-01

This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

Science.gov (United States)

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading

We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

2016-12-01

The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Interval selection with machine-dependent intervals

OpenAIRE

Bohmova K.; Disser Y.; Mihalak M.; Widmayer P.

2013-01-01

We study an offline interval scheduling problem where every job has exactly one associated interval on every machine. To schedule a set of jobs, exactly one of the intervals associated with each job must be selected, and the intervals selected on the same machine must not intersect.We show that deciding whether all jobs can be scheduled is NP-complete already in various simple cases. In particular, by showing the NP-completeness for the case when all the intervals associated with the same job...

Cardiopulmonary resuscitation; use, training and self-confidence in skills. A self-report study among hospital personnel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hopstock Laila A

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Immediate start of basic cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR and early defibrillation have been highlighted as crucial for survival from cardiac arrest, but despite new knowledge, new technology and massive personnel training the survival rates from in-hospital cardiac arrest are still low. National guidelines recommend regular intervals of CPR training to make all hospital personnel able to perform basic CPR till advanced care is available. This study investigates CPR training, resuscitation experience and self-confidence in skills among hospital personnel outside critical care areas. Methods A cross-sectional study was performed at three Norwegian hospitals. Data on CPR training and CPR use were collected by self-reports from 361 hospital personnel. Results A total of 89% reported training in CPR, but only 11% had updated their skills in accordance with the time interval recommended by national guidelines. Real resuscitation experience was reported by one third of the respondents. Both training intervals and use of skills in resuscitation situations differed among the professions. Self-reported confidence decreased only after more than two years since last CPR training. Conclusion There is a gap between recommendations and reality in CPR training among hospital personnel working outside critical care areas.

Exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function.

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, David

2013-10-12

A method to produce exact simultaneous confidence bands for the empirical cumulative distribution function that was first described by Owen, and subsequently corrected by Jager and Wellner, is the starting point for deriving exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function of any positive random variable. We invert a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity, constructed from the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survivor function, to obtain simultaneous lower and upper bands for the function of interest with specified global confidence level. The method involves calculating a null distribution and associated critical value for each observed sample configuration. However, Noe recursions and the Van Wijngaarden-Decker-Brent root-finding algorithm provide the necessary tools for efficient computation of these exact bounds. Various aspects of the effect of right censoring on these exact bands are investigated, using as illustrations two observational studies of survival experience among non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients and a much larger group of subjects with advanced lung cancer enrolled in trials within the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the merits of the proposed method of deriving simultaneous interval estimates of the survivor function across the entire range of the observed sample. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. It was begun while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, and completed during a subsequent sojourn at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. The support of both institutions, in addition to that of NSERC and the University of Waterloo, is greatly appreciated.

Raising Confident Kids

Science.gov (United States)

... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...

Planning an Availability Demonstration Test with Consideration of Confidence Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank Müller

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The full service life of a technical product or system is usually not completed after an initial failure. With appropriate measures, the system can be returned to a functional state. Availability is an important parameter for evaluating such repairable systems: Failure and repair behaviors are required to determine this availability. These data are usually given as mean value distributions with a certain confidence level. Consequently, the availability value also needs to be expressed with a confidence level. This paper first highlights the bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation (BMCS for availability demonstration and inference with confidence intervals based on limited failure and repair data. The BMCS enables point-, steady-state and average availability to be determined with a confidence level based on the pure samples or mean value distributions in combination with the corresponding sample size of failure and repair behavior. Furthermore, the method enables individual sample sizes to be used. A sample calculation of a system with Weibull-distributed failure behavior and a sample of repair times is presented. Based on the BMCS, an extended, new procedure is introduced: the “inverse bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation” (IBMCS to be used for availability demonstration tests with consideration of confidence levels. The IBMCS provides a test plan comprising the required number of failures and repair actions that must be observed to demonstrate a certain availability value. The concept can be applied to each type of availability and can also be applied to the pure samples or distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. It does not require special types of distribution. In other words, for example, a Weibull, a lognormal or an exponential distribution can all be considered as distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. After presenting the IBMCS, a sample calculation will be carried out and the potential of the BMCS and the IBMCS

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

Science.gov (United States)

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

Dynamic visual noise reduces confidence in short-term memory for visual information.

Science.gov (United States)

Kemps, Eva; Andrade, Jackie

2012-05-01

Previous research has shown effects of the visual interference technique, dynamic visual noise (DVN), on visual imagery, but not on visual short-term memory, unless retention of precise visual detail is required. This study tested the prediction that DVN does also affect retention of gross visual information, specifically by reducing confidence. Participants performed a matrix pattern memory task with three retention interval interference conditions (DVN, static visual noise and no interference control) that varied from trial to trial. At recall, participants indicated whether or not they were sure of their responses. As in previous research, DVN did not impair recall accuracy or latency on the task, but it did reduce recall confidence relative to static visual noise and no interference. We conclude that DVN does distort visual representations in short-term memory, but standard coarse-grained recall measures are insensitive to these distortions.

Five-Year Risk of Interval-Invasive Second Breast Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Buist, Diana S. M.; Houssami, Nehmat; Dowling, Emily C.; Halpern, Elkan F.; Gazelle, G. Scott; Lehman, Constance D.; Henderson, Louise M.; Hubbard, Rebecca A.

2015-01-01

Background: Earlier detection of second breast cancers after primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment improves survival, yet mammography is less accurate in women with prior breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine women presenting clinically with second breast cancers after negative surveillance mammography (interval cancers), and to estimate the five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancers for women with varying risk profiles. Methods: We evaluated a prospective cohort of 15 114 women with 47 717 surveillance mammograms diagnosed with stage 0-II unilateral PBC from 1996 through 2008 at facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We used discrete time survival models to estimate the association between odds of an interval-invasive second breast cancer and candidate predictors, including demographic, PBC, and imaging characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The cumulative incidence of second breast cancers after five years was 54.4 per 1000 women, with 325 surveillance-detected and 138 interval-invasive second breast cancers. The five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancer for women with referent category characteristics was 0.60%. For women with the most and least favorable profiles, the five-year risk ranged from 0.07% to 6.11%. Multivariable modeling identified grade II PBC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 3.31), treatment with lumpectomy without radiation (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.91 to 5.62), interval PBC presentation (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.16), and heterogeneously dense breasts on mammography (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.36) as independent predictors of interval-invasive second breast cancers. Conclusions: PBC diagnosis and treatment characteristics contribute to variation in subsequent-interval second breast cancer risk. Consideration of these factors may be useful in developing tailored post-treatment imaging surveillance plans. PMID:25904721

Diverse interpretations of confidence building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macintosh, J.

1998-01-01

This paper explores the variety of operational understandings associated with the term 'confidence building'. Collectively, these understandings constitute what should be thought of as a 'family' of confidence building approaches. This unacknowledged and generally unappreciated proliferation of operational understandings that function under the rubric of confidence building appears to be an impediment to effective policy. The paper's objective is to analyze these different understandings, stressing the important differences in their underlying assumptions. In the process, the paper underlines the need for the international community to clarify its collective thinking about what it means when it speaks of 'confidence building'. Without enhanced clarity, it will be unnecessarily difficult to employ the confidence building approach effectively due to the lack of consistent objectives and common operating assumptions. Although it is not the intention of this paper to promote a particular account of confidence building, dissecting existing operational understandings should help to identify whether there are fundamental elements that define what might be termed 'authentic' confidence building. Implicit here is the view that some operational understandings of confidence building may diverge too far from consensus models to count as meaningful members of the confidence building family. (author)

Chinese Management Research Needs Self-Confidence but not Over-confidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Xin; Ma, Li

2018-01-01

Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental......-confidence, limiting theoretical innovation and practical relevance. Yet going in the other direction of overly indigenous research reflects over-confidence, often isolating the Chinese management research from the mainstream academia and at times, even becoming anti-science. A more integrated approach of conducting...... to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self...

Bootstrap confidence intervals for principal response curves

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmerman, Marieke E.; Ter Braak, Cajo J. F.

2008-01-01

The principal response curve (PRC) model is of use to analyse multivariate data resulting from experiments involving repeated sampling in time. The time-dependent treatment effects are represented by PRCs, which are functional in nature. The sample PRCs can be estimated using a raw approach, or the

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Principal Response Curves

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmerman, M.E.; Braak, ter C.J.F.

2008-01-01

The principal response curve (PRC) model is of use to analyse multivariate data resulting from experiments involving repeated sampling in time. The time-dependent treatment effects are represented by PRCs, which are functional in nature. The sample PRCs can be estimated using a raw approach, or the

Autoimmune antibodies and recurrence-free interval in melanoma patients treated with adjuvant interferon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bouwhuis, Marna G; Suciu, Stefan; Collette, Sandra

2009-01-01

relapse-free interval in both trials (EORTC 18952, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.25 to 0.68, P P ... (model 2: EORTC 18952, HR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.46 to 1.40, P = .44; and Nordic IFN, HR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.55 to 1.30, P = .45; model 3: EORTC 18952, HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.59 to 1.87, P = .88; and Nordic IFN, HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.49 to 1.24, P = .30). CONCLUSIONS: In two randomized trials of IFN...

An Interval Estimation Method of Patent Keyword Data for Sustainable Technology Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daiho Uhm

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Technology forecasting (TF is forecasting the future state of a technology. It is exciting to know the future of technologies, because technology changes the way we live and enhances the quality of our lives. In particular, TF is an important area in the management of technology (MOT for R&D strategy and new product development. Consequently, there are many studies on TF. Patent analysis is one method of TF because patents contain substantial information regarding developed technology. The conventional methods of patent analysis are based on quantitative approaches such as statistics and machine learning. The most traditional TF methods based on patent analysis have a common problem. It is the sparsity of patent keyword data structured from collected patent documents. After preprocessing with text mining techniques, most frequencies of technological keywords in patent data have values of zero. This problem creates a disadvantage for the performance of TF, and we have trouble analyzing patent keyword data. To solve this problem, we propose an interval estimation method (IEM. Using an adjusted Wald confidence interval called the Agresti–Coull confidence interval, we construct our IEM for efficient TF. In addition, we apply the proposed method to forecast the technology of an innovative company. To show how our work can be applied in the real domain, we conduct a case study using Apple technology.

Change in Breast Cancer Screening Intervals Since the 2009 USPSTF Guideline.

Science.gov (United States)

Wernli, Karen J; Arao, Robert F; Hubbard, Rebecca A; Sprague, Brian L; Alford-Teaster, Jennifer; Haas, Jennifer S; Henderson, Louise; Hill, Deidre; Lee, Christoph I; Tosteson, Anna N A; Onega, Tracy

2017-08-01

In 2009, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended biennial mammography for women aged 50-74 years and shared decision-making for women aged 40-49 years for breast cancer screening. We evaluated changes in mammography screening interval after the 2009 recommendations. We conducted a prospective cohort study of women aged 40-74 years who received 821,052 screening mammograms between 2006 and 2012 using data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We compared changes in screening intervals and stratified intervals based on whether the mammogram at the end of the interval occurred before or after the 2009 recommendation. Differences in mean interval length by woman-level characteristics were compared using linear regression. The mean interval (in months) minimally decreased after the 2009 USPSTF recommendations. Among women aged 40-49 years, the mean interval decreased from 17.2 months to 17.1 months (difference -0.16%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.30 to -0.01). Similar small reductions were seen for most age groups. The largest change in interval length in the post-USPSTF period was declines among women with a first-degree family history of breast cancer (difference -0.68%, 95% CI -0.82 to -0.54) or a 5-year breast cancer risk ≥2.5% (difference -0.58%, 95% CI -0.73 to -0.44). The 2009 USPSTF recommendation did not lengthen the average mammography interval among women routinely participating in mammography screening. Future studies should evaluate whether breast cancer screening intervals lengthen toward biennial intervals following new national 2016 breast cancer screening recommendations, particularly among women less than 50 years of age.

The idiosyncratic nature of confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

2017-11-01

Confidence is the 'feeling of knowing' that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.

Sequential Interval Estimation of a Location Parameter with Fixed Width in the Nonregular Case

OpenAIRE

Koike, Ken-ichi

2007-01-01

For a location-scale parameter family of distributions with a finite support, a sequential confidence interval with a fixed width is obtained for the location parameter, and its asymptotic consistency and efficiency are shown. Some comparisons with the Chow-Robbins procedure are also done.

Calculation of solar irradiation prediction intervals combining volatility and kernel density estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trapero, Juan R.

2016-01-01

In order to integrate solar energy into the grid it is important to predict the solar radiation accurately, where forecast errors can lead to significant costs. Recently, the increasing statistical approaches that cope with this problem is yielding a prolific literature. In general terms, the main research discussion is centred on selecting the “best” forecasting technique in accuracy terms. However, the need of the users of such forecasts require, apart from point forecasts, information about the variability of such forecast to compute prediction intervals. In this work, we will analyze kernel density estimation approaches, volatility forecasting models and combination of both of them in order to improve the prediction intervals performance. The results show that an optimal combination in terms of prediction interval statistical tests can achieve the desired confidence level with a lower average interval width. Data from a facility located in Spain are used to illustrate our methodology. - Highlights: • This work explores uncertainty forecasting models to build prediction intervals. • Kernel density estimators, exponential smoothing and GARCH models are compared. • An optimal combination of methods provides the best results. • A good compromise between coverage and average interval width is shown.

A comparison of confidence/credible interval methods for the area under the ROC curve for continuous diagnostic tests with small sample size.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Dai; Cortese, Giuliana; Baumgartner, Richard

2017-12-01

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is frequently used as a measure of accuracy of continuous markers in diagnostic tests. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is arguably the most widely used summary index for the ROC curve. Although the small sample size scenario is common in medical tests, a comprehensive study of small sample size properties of various methods for the construction of the confidence/credible interval (CI) for the AUC has been by and large missing in the literature. In this paper, we describe and compare 29 non-parametric and parametric methods for the construction of the CI for the AUC when the number of available observations is small. The methods considered include not only those that have been widely adopted, but also those that have been less frequently mentioned or, to our knowledge, never applied to the AUC context. To compare different methods, we carried out a simulation study with data generated from binormal models with equal and unequal variances and from exponential models with various parameters and with equal and unequal small sample sizes. We found that the larger the true AUC value and the smaller the sample size, the larger the discrepancy among the results of different approaches. When the model is correctly specified, the parametric approaches tend to outperform the non-parametric ones. Moreover, in the non-parametric domain, we found that a method based on the Mann-Whitney statistic is in general superior to the others. We further elucidate potential issues and provide possible solutions to along with general guidance on the CI construction for the AUC when the sample size is small. Finally, we illustrate the utility of different methods through real life examples.

Technical Report: Algorithm and Implementation for Quasispecies Abundance Inference with Confidence Intervals from Metagenomic Sequence Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McLoughlin, Kevin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2016-01-11

This report describes the design and implementation of an algorithm for estimating relative microbial abundances, together with confidence limits, using data from metagenomic DNA sequencing. For the background behind this project and a detailed discussion of our modeling approach for metagenomic data, we refer the reader to our earlier technical report, dated March 4, 2014. Briefly, we described a fully Bayesian generative model for paired-end sequence read data, incorporating the effects of the relative abundances, the distribution of sequence fragment lengths, fragment position bias, sequencing errors and variations between the sampled genomes and the nearest reference genomes. A distinctive feature of our modeling approach is the use of a Chinese restaurant process (CRP) to describe the selection of genomes to be sampled, and thus the relative abundances. The CRP component is desirable for fitting abundances to reads that may map ambiguously to multiple targets, because it naturally leads to sparse solutions that select the best representative from each set of nearly equivalent genomes.

A systematic review of maternal confidence for physiologic birth: characteristics of prenatal care and confidence measurement.

Science.gov (United States)

Avery, Melissa D; Saftner, Melissa A; Larson, Bridget; Weinfurter, Elizabeth V

2014-01-01

Because a focus on physiologic labor and birth has reemerged in recent years, care providers have the opportunity in the prenatal period to help women increase confidence in their ability to give birth without unnecessary interventions. However, most research has only examined support for women during labor. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the research literature for information about prenatal care approaches that increase women's confidence for physiologic labor and birth and tools to measure that confidence. Studies were reviewed that explored any element of a pregnant woman's interaction with her prenatal care provider that helped build confidence in her ability to labor and give birth. Timing of interaction with pregnant women included during pregnancy, labor and birth, and the postpartum period. In addition, we looked for studies that developed a measure of women's confidence related to labor and birth. Outcome measures included confidence or similar concepts, descriptions of components of prenatal care contributing to maternal confidence for birth, and reliability and validity of tools measuring confidence. The search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases provided a total of 893 citations. After removing duplicates and articles that did not meet inclusion criteria, 6 articles were included in the review. Three relate to women's confidence for labor during the prenatal period, and 3 describe tools to measure women's confidence for birth. Research about enhancing women's confidence for labor and birth was limited to qualitative studies. Results suggest that women desire information during pregnancy and want to use that information to participate in care decisions in a relationship with a trusted provider. Further research is needed to develop interventions to help midwives and physicians enhance women's confidence in their ability to give birth and to develop a tool to measure confidence for use during prenatal care. © 2014 by

Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

2015-01-01

This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

Five-year risk of interval-invasive second breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Janie M; Buist, Diana S M; Houssami, Nehmat; Dowling, Emily C; Halpern, Elkan F; Gazelle, G Scott; Lehman, Constance D; Henderson, Louise M; Hubbard, Rebecca A

2015-07-01

Earlier detection of second breast cancers after primary breast cancer (PBC) treatment improves survival, yet mammography is less accurate in women with prior breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to examine women presenting clinically with second breast cancers after negative surveillance mammography (interval cancers), and to estimate the five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancers for women with varying risk profiles. We evaluated a prospective cohort of 15 114 women with 47 717 surveillance mammograms diagnosed with stage 0-II unilateral PBC from 1996 through 2008 at facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We used discrete time survival models to estimate the association between odds of an interval-invasive second breast cancer and candidate predictors, including demographic, PBC, and imaging characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided. The cumulative incidence of second breast cancers after five years was 54.4 per 1000 women, with 325 surveillance-detected and 138 interval-invasive second breast cancers. The five-year risk of interval-invasive second cancer for women with referent category characteristics was 0.60%. For women with the most and least favorable profiles, the five-year risk ranged from 0.07% to 6.11%. Multivariable modeling identified grade II PBC (odds ratio [OR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 3.31), treatment with lumpectomy without radiation (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.91 to 5.62), interval PBC presentation (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.28 to 3.16), and heterogeneously dense breasts on mammography (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.36) as independent predictors of interval-invasive second breast cancers. PBC diagnosis and treatment characteristics contribute to variation in subsequent-interval second breast cancer risk. Consideration of these factors may be useful in developing tailored post-treatment imaging surveillance plans. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved

Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

2012-01-01

It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kleitman Sabina

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

2015-01-01

Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

Precision Interval Estimation of the Response Surface by Means of an Integrated Algorithm of Neural Network and Linear Regression

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, Ching F.

1999-01-01

The integration of Radial Basis Function Networks and Back Propagation Neural Networks with the Multiple Linear Regression has been accomplished to map nonlinear response surfaces over a wide range of independent variables in the process of the Modem Design of Experiments. The integrated method is capable to estimate the precision intervals including confidence and predicted intervals. The power of the innovative method has been demonstrated by applying to a set of wind tunnel test data in construction of response surface and estimation of precision interval.

High intensity aerobic interval training improves peak oxygen consumption in patients with metabolic syndrome: CAT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexis Espinoza Salinas

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction A number of cardiovascular risk factors characterizes the metabolic syndrome: insulin resistance (IR, low HDL cholesterol and high triglycerides. The aforementioned risk factors lead to elevated levels of abdominal adipose tissue, resulting in oxygen consumption deficiency. Purpose To verify the validity and applicability of using high intensity interval training (HIIT in subjects with metabolic syndrome and to answer the following question: Can HIIT improve peak oxygen consumption? Method The systematic review "Effects of aerobic interval training on exercise capacity and metabolic risk factors in individuals with cardiometabolic disorders" was analyzed. Results Data suggests high intensity aerobic interval training increases peak oxygen consumption by a standardized mean difference of 3.60 mL/kg-1/min-1 (95% confidence interval, 0.28-4.91. Conclusion In spite of the methodological shortcomings of the primary studies included in the systematic review, we reasonably conclude that implementation of high intensity aerobic interval training in subjects with metabolic syndrome, leads to increases in peak oxygen consumption.

The design and analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia River. Volume 7: Monte-Carlo comparison of confidence internal procedures for estimating survival in a release-recapture study, with applications to Snake River salmonids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowther, A.B.; Skalski, J.

1996-06-01

Confidence intervals for survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities of migrating juvenile salmonids can be computed from the output of the SURPH software developed at the Center for Quantitative Science at the University of Washington. These intervals have been constructed using the estimate of the survival probability, its associated standard error, and assuming the estimate is normally distributed. In order to test the validity and performance of this procedure, two additional confidence interval procedures for estimating survival probabilities were tested and compared using simulated mark-recapture data. Intervals were constructed using normal probability theory, using a percentile-based empirical bootstrap algorithm, and using the profile likelihood concept. Performance of each method was assessed for a variety of initial conditions (release sizes, survival probabilities, detection probabilities). These initial conditions were chosen to encompass the range of parameter values seen in the 1993 and 1994 Snake River juvenile salmonid survival studies. The comparisons among the three estimation methods included average interval width, interval symmetry, and interval coverage

Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

OpenAIRE

Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

2012-01-01

It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movem...

Interval Solution for Nonlinear Programming of Maximizing the Fatigue Life of V-Belt under Polymorphic Uncertain Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhong Wan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In accord with the practical engineering design conditions, a nonlinear programming model is constructed for maximizing the fatigue life of V-belt drive in which some polymorphic uncertainties are incorporated. For a given satisfaction level and a confidence level, an equivalent formulation of this uncertain optimization model is obtained where only interval parameters are involved. Based on the concepts of maximal and minimal range inequalities for describing interval inequality, the interval parameter model is decomposed into two standard nonlinear programming problems, and an algorithm, called two-step based sampling algorithm, is developed to find an interval optimal solution for the original problem. Case study is employed to demonstrate the validity and practicability of the constructed model and the algorithm.

Interpregnancy intervals: impact of postpartum contraceptive effectiveness and coverage.

Science.gov (United States)

Thiel de Bocanegra, Heike; Chang, Richard; Howell, Mike; Darney, Philip

2014-04-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the use of contraceptive methods, which was defined by effectiveness, length of coverage, and their association with short interpregnancy intervals, when controlling for provider type and client demographics. We identified a cohort of 117,644 women from the 2008 California Birth Statistical Master file with second or higher order birth and at least 1 Medicaid (Family Planning, Access, Care, and Treatment [Family PACT] program or Medi-Cal) claim within 18 months after index birth. We explored the effect of contraceptive method provision on the odds of having an optimal interpregnancy interval and controlled for covariates. The average length of contraceptive coverage was 3.81 months (SD = 4.84). Most women received user-dependent hormonal contraceptives as their most effective contraceptive method (55%; n = 65,103 women) and one-third (33%; n = 39,090 women) had no contraceptive claim. Women who used long-acting reversible contraceptive methods had 3.89 times the odds and women who used user-dependent hormonal methods had 1.89 times the odds of achieving an optimal birth interval compared with women who used barrier methods only; women with no method had 0.66 times the odds. When user-dependent methods are considered, the odds of having an optimal birth interval increased for each additional month of contraceptive coverage by 8% (odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.09). Women who were seen by Family PACT or by both Family PACT and Medi-Cal providers had significantly higher odds of optimal birth intervals compared with women who were served by Medi-Cal only. To achieve optimal birth spacing and ultimately to improve birth outcomes, attention should be given to contraceptive counseling and access to contraceptive methods in the postpartum period. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Can follow-up controls improve the confidence of MR of the breast? A retrospective analysis of follow-up MR images of the breast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Betsch, A.; Arndt, E.; Stern, W.; Claussen, C.D.; Mueller-Schimpfle, M.; Wallwiener, D.

2001-01-01

Purpose: To assess the change in diagnostic confidence between first and follow-up dynamic MR examination of the breast (MRM). Methods: The reports of a total of 175 MRM in 77 patients (mean age 50 years; 36-76) with 98 follow-up MRM were analyzed. All examinations were performed as a dynamic study (Gd-DTPA, 0.16 mmol/kg; 6-7 repetitive studies). The change in diagnostic confidence was retrospectively classified as follows: Controlled lesion vanished during follow-up (category I); diagnostic confidence increases during follow-up (II), more likely benign (IIa), more suspicious (IIb); no difference in diagnostic confidence (III). Long-term follow-up over an average of four years was obtained for 57 patients with category IIa/III findings. Results: In 98 follow-up examinations, only two lesions vanished (2%). In 77/98 cases a category IIa lesion was diagnosed, in 11 cases a category IIb lesion. In 8 cases (8%) there was no change in diagnostic confidence during follow-up. Lesions in category IIb underwent biopsy in 10/11 cases, in one case long-term follow-up proved a completely regredient inflammatory change. In 8/11 suspicious findings (IIb) a malignant tumor was detected. The mean time interval between first and follow-up MRM was 8 months for I-IIb lesions, and 4 months for category III lesions. In the longterm follow-up two patients with a category II a lesion developed a carcinoma in a different breast area after four and five years. Conclusion: MRM follow up increases the diagnostic confidence if the time interval is adequate (>4 months). A persistently or increasingly suspicious finding warrants biopsy. (orig.) [de

Confidence in critical care nursing.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M

2010-10-01

The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.

Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

2012-03-01

Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

Reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson-Lamb, Gavin C; Schoeman, Johan P; Hooijberg, Emma H; Heinrich, Sonja K; Tordiffe, Adrian S W

2016-02-26

Published haematologic and serum biochemistry reference intervals are very scarce for captive cheetahs and even more for free-ranging cheetahs. The current study was performed to establish reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs. Baseline serum biochemistry analytes were analysed from 66 healthy Namibian cheetahs. Samples were collected from 30 captive cheetahs at the AfriCat Foundation and 36 free-ranging cheetahs from central Namibia. The effects of captivity-status, age, sex and haemolysis score on the tested serum analytes were investigated. The biochemistry analytes that were measured were sodium, potassium, magnesium, chloride, urea and creatinine. The 90% confidence interval of the reference limits was obtained using the non-parametric bootstrap method. Reference intervals were preferentially determined by the non-parametric method and were as follows: sodium (128 mmol/L - 166 mmol/L), potassium (3.9 mmol/L - 5.2 mmol/L), magnesium (0.8 mmol/L - 1.2 mmol/L), chloride (97 mmol/L - 130 mmol/L), urea (8.2 mmol/L - 25.1 mmol/L) and creatinine (88 µmol/L - 288 µmol/L). Reference intervals from the current study were compared with International Species Information System values for cheetahs and found to be narrower. Moreover, age, sex and haemolysis score had no significant effect on the serum analytes in this study. Separate reference intervals for captive and free-ranging cheetahs were also determined. Captive cheetahs had higher urea values, most likely due to dietary factors. This study is the first to establish reference intervals for serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs according to international guidelines. These results can be used for future health and disease assessments in both captive and free-ranging cheetahs.

Confidence Intervals for Omega Coefficient: Proposal for Calculus.

Science.gov (United States)

Ventura-León, José Luis

2018-01-01

La confiabilidad es entendida como una propiedad métrica de las puntuaciones de un instrumento de medida. Recientemente se viene utilizando el coeficiente omega (ω) para la estimación de la confiabilidad. No obstante, la medición nunca es exacta por la influencia del error aleatorio, por esa razón es necesario calcular y reportar el intervalo de confianza (IC) que permite encontrar en valor verdadero en un rango de medida. En ese contexto, el artículo plantea una forma de estimar el IC mediante el método de bootstrap para facilitar este procedimiento se brindan códigos de R (un software de acceso libre) para que puedan realizarse los cálculos de una forma amigable. Se espera que el artículo sirva de ayuda a los investigadores de ámbito de salud.

Intervals of confidence: Uncertain accounts of global hunger

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yates-Doerr, E.

2015-01-01

Global health policy experts tend to organize hunger through scales of ‘the individual’, ‘the community’ and ‘the global’. This organization configures hunger as a discrete, measurable object to be scaled up or down with mathematical certainty. This article offers a counter to this approach, using

A quick method to calculate QTL confidence interval

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2011-08-19

Aug 19, 2011 ... experimental design and analysis to reveal the real molecular nature of the ... strap sample form the bootstrap distribution of QTL location. The 2.5 and ..... ative probability to harbour a true QTL, hence x-LOD rule is not stable ... Darvasi A. and Soller M. 1997 A simple method to calculate resolv- ing power ...

An approximate confidence interval for recombination fraction in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

2011-02-14

Feb 14, 2011 ... whose parents are not in the pedigree) and θ be the recombination fraction. ( )|. P x g is the penetrance probability, that is, the probability that an individual with genotype g has phenotype x . Let (. ) | , k k k f m. P g g g be the transmission probability, that is, the probability that an individual having genotype k.

CIMP status of interval colon cancers: another piece to the puzzle.

Science.gov (United States)

Arain, Mustafa A; Sawhney, Mandeep; Sheikh, Shehla; Anway, Ruth; Thyagarajan, Bharat; Bond, John H; Shaukat, Aasma

2010-05-01

Colon cancers diagnosed in the interval after a complete colonoscopy may occur due to limitations of colonoscopy or due to the development of new tumors, possibly reflecting molecular and environmental differences in tumorigenesis resulting in rapid tumor growth. In a previous study from our group, interval cancers (colon cancers diagnosed within 5 years of a complete colonoscopy) were almost four times more likely to demonstrate microsatellite instability (MSI) than non-interval cancers. In this study we extended our molecular analysis to compare the CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) status of interval and non-interval colorectal cancers and investigate the relationship between the CIMP and MSI pathways in the pathogenesis of interval cancers. We searched our institution's cancer registry for interval cancers, defined as colon cancers that developed within 5 years of a complete colonoscopy. These were frequency matched in a 1:2 ratio by age and sex to patients with non-interval cancers (defined as colon cancers diagnosed on a patient's first recorded colonoscopy). Archived cancer specimens for all subjects were retrieved and tested for CIMP gene markers. The MSI status of subjects identified between 1989 and 2004 was known from our previous study. Tissue specimens of newly identified cases and controls (between 2005 and 2006) were tested for MSI. There were 1,323 cases of colon cancer diagnosed over the 17-year study period, of which 63 were identified as having interval cancer and matched to 131 subjects with non-interval cancer. Study subjects were almost all Caucasian men. CIMP was present in 57% of interval cancers compared to 33% of non-interval cancers (P=0.004). As shown previously, interval cancers were more likely than non-interval cancers to occur in the proximal colon (63% vs. 39%; P=0.002), and have MSI 29% vs. 11%, P=0.004). In multivariable logistic regression model, proximal location (odds ratio (OR) 1.85; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1

Confidence limits for regional cerebral blood flow values obtained with circular positron system, using krypton-77

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, E.; Yamamoto, Y.L.; Thompson, C.J.

1978-01-01

The 90% confidence limits have been determined for regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) values obtained in each cm 2 of a cross section of the human head after inhalation of radioactive krypton-77, using the MNI circular positron emission tomography system (Positome). CBF values for small brain tissue elements are calculated by linear regression analysis on the semi-logarithmically transformed clearance curve. A computer program displays CBF values and their estimated error in numeric and gray scale forms. The following typical results have been obtained on a control subject: mean CBF in the entire cross section of the head: 54.6 + - 5 ml/min/100 g tissue, rCBF for small area of frontal gray matter: 75.8 + - 9 ml/min/100 g tissue. Confidence intervals for individual rCBF values varied between + - 13 and + - 55% except for areas pertaining to the ventricular system where particularly poor statistics have been obtained. Knowledge of confidence limits for rCBF values improves their diagnostic significance, particularly with respect to the assessment of reduced rCBF in stroke patients. A nomogram for convenient determination of 90% confidence limits for slope values obtained in linear regression analysis has been designed with the number of fitted points (n) and the correlation coefficient (r) as parameters. (author)

Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

Forecasting overhaul or replacement intervals based on estimated system failure intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Gannon, James M.

1994-12-01

System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLE's) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and internal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLE's.

Decoded fMRI neurofeedback can induce bidirectional confidence changes within single participants.

Science.gov (United States)

Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Lau, Hakwan; Kawato, Mitsuo

2017-04-01

Neurofeedback studies using real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (rt-fMRI) have recently incorporated the multi-voxel pattern decoding approach, allowing for fMRI to serve as a tool to manipulate fine-grained neural activity embedded in voxel patterns. Because of its tremendous potential for clinical applications, certain questions regarding decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) must be addressed. Specifically, can the same participants learn to induce neural patterns in opposite directions in different sessions? If so, how does previous learning affect subsequent induction effectiveness? These questions are critical because neurofeedback effects can last for months, but the short- to mid-term dynamics of such effects are unknown. Here we employed a within-subjects design, where participants underwent two DecNef training sessions to induce behavioural changes of opposing directionality (up or down regulation of perceptual confidence in a visual discrimination task), with the order of training counterbalanced across participants. Behavioral results indicated that the manipulation was strongly influenced by the order and the directionality of neurofeedback training. We applied nonlinear mathematical modeling to parametrize four main consequences of DecNef: main effect of change in confidence, strength of down-regulation of confidence relative to up-regulation, maintenance of learning effects, and anterograde learning interference. Modeling results revealed that DecNef successfully induced bidirectional confidence changes in different sessions within single participants. Furthermore, the effect of up- compared to down-regulation was more prominent, and confidence changes (regardless of the direction) were largely preserved even after a week-long interval. Lastly, the effect of the second session was markedly diminished as compared to the effect of the first session, indicating strong anterograde learning interference. These results are interpreted in the framework

[Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka

2006-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.

Experimental congruence of interval scale production from paired comparisons and ranking for image evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Handley, John C.; Babcock, Jason S.; Pelz, Jeff B.

2003-12-01

Image evaluation tasks are often conducted using paired comparisons or ranking. To elicit interval scales, both methods rely on Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment in which objects closer in psychological space are more often confused in preference comparisons by a putative discriminal random process. It is often debated whether paired comparisons and ranking yield the same interval scales. An experiment was conducted to assess scale production using paired comparisons and ranking. For this experiment a Pioneer Plasma Display and Apple Cinema Display were used for stimulus presentation. Observers performed rank order and paired comparisons tasks on both displays. For each of five scenes, six images were created by manipulating attributes such as lightness, chroma, and hue using six different settings. The intention was to simulate the variability from a set of digital cameras or scanners. Nineteen subjects, (5 females, 14 males) ranging from 19-51 years of age participated in this experiment. Using a paired comparison model and a ranking model, scales were estimated for each display and image combination yielding ten scale pairs, ostensibly measuring the same psychological scale. The Bradley-Terry model was used for the paired comparisons data and the Bradley-Terry-Mallows model was used for the ranking data. Each model was fit using maximum likelihood estimation and assessed using likelihood ratio tests. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were also constructed using likelihood ratios. Model fits for paired comparisons were satisfactory for all scales except those from two image/display pairs; the ranking model fit uniformly well on all data sets. Arguing from overlapping confidence intervals, we conclude that paired comparisons and ranking produce no conflicting decisions regarding ultimate ordering of treatment preferences, but paired comparisons yield greater precision at the expense of lack-of-fit.

Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cleminson, F.R.

1998-01-01

Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

Reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gavin C. Hudson-Lamb

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Published haematologic and serum biochemistry reference intervals are very scarce for captive cheetahs and even more for free-ranging cheetahs. The current study was performed to establish reference intervals for selected serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs. Baseline serum biochemistry analytes were analysed from 66 healthy Namibian cheetahs. Samples were collected from 30 captive cheetahs at the AfriCat Foundation and 36 free-ranging cheetahs from central Namibia. The effects of captivity-status, age, sex and haemolysis score on the tested serum analytes were investigated. The biochemistry analytes that were measured were sodium, potassium, magnesium, chloride, urea and creatinine. The 90% confidence interval of the reference limits was obtained using the non-parametric bootstrap method. Reference intervals were preferentially determined by the non-parametric method and were as follows: sodium (128 mmol/L – 166 mmol/L, potassium (3.9 mmol/L – 5.2 mmol/L, magnesium (0.8 mmol/L – 1.2 mmol/L, chloride (97 mmol/L – 130 mmol/L, urea (8.2 mmol/L – 25.1 mmol/L and creatinine (88 µmol/L – 288 µmol/L. Reference intervals from the current study were compared with International Species Information System values for cheetahs and found to be narrower. Moreover, age, sex and haemolysis score had no significant effect on the serum analytes in this study. Separate reference intervals for captive and free-ranging cheetahs were also determined. Captive cheetahs had higher urea values, most likely due to dietary factors. This study is the first to establish reference intervals for serum biochemistry analytes in cheetahs according to international guidelines. These results can be used for future health and disease assessments in both captive and free-ranging cheetahs.

On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2018-02-01

Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of free statistical software enabling researchers to calculate confidence levels, clinical significance curves and risk-benefit contours

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shakespeare, T.P.; Mukherjee, R.K.; Gebski, V.J.

2003-01-01

Confidence levels, clinical significance curves, and risk-benefit contours are tools improving analysis of clinical studies and minimizing misinterpretation of published results, however no software has been available for their calculation. The objective was to develop software to help clinicians utilize these tools. Excel 2000 spreadsheets were designed using only built-in functions, without macros. The workbook was protected and encrypted so that users can modify only input cells. The workbook has 4 spreadsheets for use in studies comparing two patient groups. Sheet 1 comprises instructions and graphic examples for use. Sheet 2 allows the user to input the main study results (e.g. survival rates) into a 2-by-2 table. Confidence intervals (95%), p-value and the confidence level for Treatment A being better than Treatment B are automatically generated. An additional input cell allows the user to determine the confidence associated with a specified level of benefit. For example if the user wishes to know the confidence that Treatment A is at least 10% better than B, 10% is entered. Sheet 2 automatically displays clinical significance curves, graphically illustrating confidence levels for all possible benefits of one treatment over the other. Sheet 3 allows input of toxicity data, and calculates the confidence that one treatment is more toxic than the other. It also determines the confidence that the relative toxicity of the most effective arm does not exceed user-defined tolerability. Sheet 4 automatically calculates risk-benefit contours, displaying the confidence associated with a specified scenario of minimum benefit and maximum risk of one treatment arm over the other. The spreadsheet is freely downloadable at www.ontumor.com/professional/statistics.htm A simple, self-explanatory, freely available spreadsheet calculator was developed using Excel 2000. The incorporated decision-making tools can be used for data analysis and improve the reporting of results of any

How do regulators measure public confidence?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmitt, A.; Besenyei, E.

2006-01-01

The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. - There are some important elements of confidence: visibility, satisfaction, credibility and reputation. The latter can consist of trust, positive image and knowledge of the role the organisation plays. A good reputation is hard to achieve but easy to lose. - There is a need to define what public confidence is and what to measure. The difficulty is that confidence is a matter of perception of the public, so what we try to measure is the perception. - It is controversial how to take into account the results of confidence measurement because of the influence of the context. It is not an exact science, results should be examined cautiously and surveys should be conducted frequently, at least every two years. - Different experiences were explained: - Quantitative surveys - among the general public or more specific groups like the media; - Qualitative research - with test groups and small panels; - Semi-quantitative studies - among stakeholders who have regular contracts with the regulatory body. It is not clear if the results should be shared with the public or just with other authorities and governmental organisations. - Efforts are needed to increase visibility, which is a prerequisite for confidence. - A practical example of organizing an emergency exercise and an information campaign without taking into account the real concerns of the people was given to show how public confidence can be decreased. - We learned about a new method - the so-called socio-drama - which addresses another issue also connected to confidence - the notion of understanding between stakeholders around a nuclear site. It is another way of looking at confidence in a more restricted group. (authors)

The Great Recession and confidence in homeownership

OpenAIRE

Anat Bracha; Julian Jamison

2013-01-01

Confidence in homeownership shifts for those who personally experienced real estate loss during the Great Recession. Older Americans are confident in the value of homeownership. Younger Americans are less confident.

Convex Interval Games

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alparslan-Gok, S.Z.; Brânzei, R.; Tijs, S.H.

2008-01-01

In this paper, convex interval games are introduced and some characterizations are given. Some economic situations leading to convex interval games are discussed. The Weber set and the Shapley value are defined for a suitable class of interval games and their relations with the interval core for

Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cleminson, F.R. [Dept. of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Verification, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament Div (IDA), Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

1998-07-01

Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

Restricted Interval Valued Neutrosophic Sets and Restricted Interval Valued Neutrosophic Topological Spaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anjan Mukherjee

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper we introduce the concept of restricted interval valued neutrosophic sets (RIVNS in short. Some basic operations and properties of RIVNS are discussed. The concept of restricted interval valued neutrosophic topology is also introduced together with restricted interval valued neutrosophic finer and restricted interval valued neutrosophic coarser topology. We also define restricted interval valued neutrosophic interior and closer of a restricted interval valued neutrosophic set. Some theorems and examples are cites. Restricted interval valued neutrosophic subspace topology is also studied.

The radiographic acromiohumeral interval is affected by arm and radiographic beam position

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fehringer, Edward V.; Rosipal, Charles E.; Rhodes, David A.; Lauder, Anthony J.; Feschuk, Connie A.; Mormino, Matthew A.; Hartigan, David E. [University of Nebraska Medical Center, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery and Rehabilitation, Omaha, NE (United States); Puumala, Susan E. [Nebraska Medical Center, Department of Preventive and Societal Medicine, Omaha, NE (United States)

2008-06-15

The objective was to determine whether arm and radiographic beam positional changes affect the acromiohumeral interval (AHI) in radiographs of healthy shoulders. Controlling for participant's height and position as well as radiographic beam height and angle, from 30 right shoulders of right-handed males without shoulder problems four antero-posterior (AP) radiographic views each were obtained in defined positions. Three independent, blinded physicians measured the AHI to the nearest millimeter in 120 randomized radiographs. Mean differences between measurements were calculated, along with a 95% confidence interval. Controlling for observer effect, there was a significant difference between AHI measurements on different views (p<0.01). All pair-wise differences were statistically significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons (all p values <0.01). Even in healthy shoulders, small changes in arm position and radiographic beam orientation affect the AHI in radiographs. (orig.)

Intuitive Feelings of Warmth and Confidence in Insight and Noninsight Problem Solving of Magic Tricks

Science.gov (United States)

Hedne, Mikael R.; Norman, Elisabeth; Metcalfe, Janet

2016-01-01

The focus of the current study is on intuitive feelings of insight during problem solving and the extent to which such feelings are predictive of successful problem solving. We report the results from an experiment (N = 51) that applied a procedure where the to-be-solved problems were 32 short (15 s) video recordings of magic tricks. The procedure included metacognitive ratings similar to the “warmth ratings” previously used by Metcalfe and colleagues, as well as confidence ratings. At regular intervals during problem solving, participants indicated the perceived closeness to the correct solution. Participants also indicated directly whether each problem was solved by insight or not. Problems that people claimed were solved by insight were characterized by higher accuracy and higher confidence than noninsight solutions. There was no difference between the two types of solution in warmth ratings, however. Confidence ratings were more strongly associated with solution accuracy for noninsight than insight trials. Moreover, for insight trials the participants were more likely to repeat their incorrect solutions on a subsequent recognition test. The results have implications for understanding people's metacognitive awareness of the cognitive processes involved in problem solving. They also have general implications for our understanding of how intuition and insight are related. PMID:27630598

Confidence Leak in Perceptual Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D'Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

2015-11-01

People live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a continuity field in which objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of metacognitive representations. In three experiments, we demonstrated a robust intertask confidence leak-that is, confidence in one's response on a given task or trial influencing confidence on the following task or trial. This confidence leak could not be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Better ability to modulate confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in the prefrontal cortex. © The Author(s) 2015.

Variation in Cancer Incidence among Patients with ESRD during Kidney Function and Nonfunction Intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Yanik, Elizabeth L; Clarke, Christina A; Snyder, Jon J; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Engels, Eric A

2016-05-01

Among patients with ESRD, cancer risk is affected by kidney dysfunction and by immunosuppression after transplant. Assessing patterns across periods of dialysis and kidney transplantation may inform cancer etiology. We evaluated 202,195 kidney transplant candidates and recipients from a linkage between the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and cancer registries, and compared incidence in kidney function intervals (time with a transplant) with incidence in nonfunction intervals (waitlist or time after transplant failure), adjusting for demographic factors. Incidence of infection-related and immune-related cancer was higher during kidney function intervals than during nonfunction intervals. Incidence was most elevated for Kaposi sarcoma (hazard ratio [HR], 9.1; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 4.7 to 18), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.8 to 3.7), Hodgkin's lymphoma (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.7 to 5.3), lip cancer (HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 2.0 to 6.0), and nonepithelial skin cancers (HR, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.5 to 5.8). Conversely, ESRD-related cancer incidence was lower during kidney function intervals (kidney cancer: HR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.7 to 0.8 and thyroid cancer: HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6 to 0.8). With each successive interval, incidence changed in alternating directions for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, melanoma, and lung, pancreatic, and nonepithelial skin cancers (higher during function intervals), and kidney and thyroid cancers (higher during nonfunction intervals). For many cancers, incidence remained higher than in the general population across all intervals. These data indicate strong short-term effects of kidney dysfunction and immunosuppression on cancer incidence in patients with ESRD, suggesting a need for persistent cancer screening and prevention. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

Science.gov (United States)

McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

2006-01-01

The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

Confidence Building Strategies in the Public Schools.

Science.gov (United States)

Achilles, C. M.; And Others

1985-01-01

Data from the Phi Delta Kappa Commission on Public Confidence in Education indicate that "high-confidence" schools make greater use of marketing and public relations strategies. Teacher attitudes were ranked first and administrator attitudes second by 409 respondents for both gain and loss of confidence in schools. (MLF)

Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

2011-01-01

of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health......This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

Short-Term Wind Power Interval Forecasting Based on an EEMD-RT-RVM Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haixiang Zang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is important for improving the security and economic success of power grids. Existing wind power forecasting methods are mostly types of deterministic point forecasting. Deterministic point forecasting is vulnerable to forecasting errors and cannot effectively deal with the random nature of wind power. In order to solve the above problems, we propose a short-term wind power interval forecasting model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, runs test (RT, and relevance vector machine (RVM. First, in order to reduce the complexity of data, the original wind power sequence is decomposed into a plurality of intrinsic mode function (IMF components and residual (RES component by using EEMD. Next, we use the RT method to reconstruct the components and obtain three new components characterized by the fine-to-coarse order. Finally, we obtain the overall forecasting results (with preestablished confidence levels by superimposing the forecasting results of each new component. Our results show that, compared with existing methods, our proposed short-term interval forecasting method has less forecasting errors, narrower interval widths, and larger interval coverage percentages. Ultimately, our forecasting model is more suitable for engineering applications and other forecasting methods for new energy.

Optimal Wind Power Uncertainty Intervals for Electricity Market Operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Ying; Zhou, Zhi; Botterud, Audun; Zhang, Kaifeng

2018-01-01

It is important to select an appropriate uncertainty level of the wind power forecast for power system scheduling and electricity market operation. Traditional methods hedge against a predefined level of wind power uncertainty, such as a specific confidence interval or uncertainty set, which leaves the questions of how to best select the appropriate uncertainty levels. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes a model to optimize the forecast uncertainty intervals of wind power for power system scheduling problems, with the aim of achieving the best trade-off between economics and reliability. Then we reformulate and linearize the models into a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) without strong assumptions on the shape of the probability distribution. In order to invest the impacts on cost, reliability, and prices in a electricity market, we apply the proposed model on a twosettlement electricity market based on a six-bus test system and on a power system representing the U.S. state of Illinois. The results show that the proposed method can not only help to balance the economics and reliability of the power system scheduling, but also help to stabilize the energy prices in electricity market operation.

Haematological and biochemical reference intervals for free-ranging brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Sweden

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Establishment of haematological and biochemical reference intervals is important to assess health of animals on individual and population level. Reference intervals for 13 haematological and 34 biochemical variables were established based on 88 apparently healthy free-ranging brown bears (39 males and 49 females) in Sweden. The animals were chemically immobilised by darting from a helicopter with a combination of medetomidine, tiletamine and zolazepam in April and May 2006–2012 in the county of Dalarna, Sweden. Venous blood samples were collected during anaesthesia for radio collaring and marking for ecological studies. For each of the variables, the reference interval was described based on the 95% confidence interval, and differences due to host characteristics sex and age were included if detected. To our knowledge, this is the first report of reference intervals for free-ranging brown bears in Sweden. Results The following variables were not affected by host characteristics: red blood cell, white blood cell, monocyte and platelet count, alanine transaminase, amylase, bilirubin, free fatty acids, glucose, calcium, chloride, potassium, and cortisol. Age differences were seen for the majority of the haematological variables, whereas sex influenced only mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration, aspartate aminotransferase, lipase, lactate dehydrogenase, β-globulin, bile acids, triglycerides and sodium. Conclusions The biochemical and haematological reference intervals provided and the differences due to host factors age and gender can be useful for evaluation of health status in free-ranging European brown bears. PMID:25139149

How Much Confidence Can We Have in EU-SILC? Complex Sample Designs and the Standard Error of the Europe 2020 Poverty Indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Goedeme, Tim

2013-01-01

If estimates are based on samples, they should be accompanied by appropriate standard errors and confidence intervals. This is true for scientific research in general, and is even more important if estimates are used to inform and evaluate policy measures such as those aimed at attaining the Europe 2020 poverty reduction target. In this article I…

Electron density diagnostics in the 10-100 A interval for a solar flare

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, W. A.; Bruner, M. E.; Acton, L. W.; Mason, H. E.

1986-01-01

Electron density measurements from spectral-line diagnostics are reported for a solar flare on July 13, 1982, 1627 UT. The spectrogram, covering the 10-95 A interval, contained usable lines of helium-like ions C V, N VI, O VII, and Ne IX which are formed over the temperature interval 0.7-3.5 x 10 to the 6th K. In addition, spectral-line ratios of Si IX, Fe XIV, and Ca XV were compared with new theoretical estimates of their electron density sensitivity to obtain additional electron density diagnostics. An electron density of 3 x 10 to the 10th/cu cm was obtained. The comparison of these results from helium-like and other ions gives confidence in the utility of these tools for solar coronal analysis and will lead to a fuller understanding of the phenomena observed in this flare.

Nuclear power: restoring public confidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, L.

1986-01-01

The paper concerns a one day conference on nuclear power organised by the Centre for Science Studies and Science Policy, Lancaster, April 1986. Following the Chernobyl reactor accident, the conference concentrated on public confidence in nuclear power. Causes of lack of public confidence, public perceptions of risk, and the effect of Chernobyl in the United Kingdom, were all discussed. A Select Committee on the Environment examined the problems of radioactive waste disposal. (U.K.)

Programming with Intervals

Science.gov (United States)

Matsakis, Nicholas D.; Gross, Thomas R.

Intervals are a new, higher-level primitive for parallel programming with which programmers directly construct the program schedule. Programs using intervals can be statically analyzed to ensure that they do not deadlock or contain data races. In this paper, we demonstrate the flexibility of intervals by showing how to use them to emulate common parallel control-flow constructs like barriers and signals, as well as higher-level patterns such as bounded-buffer producer-consumer. We have implemented intervals as a publicly available library for Java and Scala.

Organic labbeling systems and consumer confidence

OpenAIRE

Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Daugbjerg, Carsten

2009-01-01

A research analysis suggests that a state certification and labelling system creates confidence in organic labelling systems and consequently green consumerism. Danish consumers have higher levels of confidence in the labelling system than consumers in countries where the state plays a minor role in labelling and certification.

Modified Dempster-Shafer approach using an expected utility interval decision rule

Science.gov (United States)

Cheaito, Ali; Lecours, Michael; Bosse, Eloi

1999-03-01

The combination operation of the conventional Dempster- Shafer algorithm has a tendency to increase exponentially the number of propositions involved in bodies of evidence by creating new ones. The aim of this paper is to explore a 'modified Dempster-Shafer' approach of fusing identity declarations emanating form different sources which include a number of radars, IFF and ESM systems in order to limit the explosion of the number of propositions. We use a non-ad hoc decision rule based on the expected utility interval to select the most probable object in a comprehensive Platform Data Base containing all the possible identity values that a potential target may take. We study the effect of the redistribution of the confidence levels of the eliminated propositions which otherwise overload the real-time data fusion system; these eliminated confidence levels can in particular be assigned to ignorance, or uniformly added to the remaining propositions and to ignorance. A scenario has been selected to demonstrate the performance of our modified Dempster-Shafer method of evidential reasoning.

Consumer confidence or the business cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

2014-01-01

Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...

Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval

OpenAIRE

Aeyoung Kim; Geunshik Han; Seung-Hyun Seo

2017-01-01

The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authenticatio...

Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

2010-01-01

Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

2017-11-01

Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Comprehensive Plan for Public Confidence in Nuclear Regulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Kim, Ho ki

2008-01-01

Public confidence in nuclear regulator has been discussed internationally. Public trust or confidence is needed for achieving regulatory goal of assuring nuclear safety to the level that is acceptable by the public or providing public ease for nuclear safety. In Korea, public ease or public confidence has been suggested as major policy goal in the 'Nuclear regulatory policy direction' annually announced. This paper reviews theory of trust, its definitions and defines nuclear safety regulation, elements of public trust or public confidence developed based on the study conducted so far. Public ease model developed and 10 measures for ensuring public confidence are also presented and future study directions are suggested

Simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function

OpenAIRE

Dudek, Anna; Gocwin, Maciej; Leskow, Jacek

2006-01-01

The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson--Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Two methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird bootstrap method is used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal--tai...

Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

2018-02-01

Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

Extended score interval in the assessment of basic surgical skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Acosta, Stefan; Sevonius, Dan; Beckman, Anders

2015-01-01

The Basic Surgical Skills course uses an assessment score interval of 0-3. An extended score interval, 1-6, was proposed by the Swedish steering committee of the course. The aim of this study was to analyze the trainee scores in the current 0-3 scored version compared to a proposed 1-6 scored version. Sixteen participants, seven females and nine males, were evaluated in the current and proposed assessment forms by instructors, observers, and learners themselves during the first and second day. In each assessment form, 17 tasks were assessed. The inter-rater reliability between the current and the proposed score sheets were evaluated with intraclass correlation (ICC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The distribution of scores for 'knot tying' at the last time point and 'bowel anastomosis side to side' given by the instructors in the current assessment form showed that the highest score was given in 31 and 62%, respectively. No ceiling effects were found in the proposed assessment form. The overall ICC between the current and proposed score sheets after assessment by the instructors increased from 0.38 (95% CI 0.77-0.78) on Day 1 to 0.83 (95% CI 0.51-0.94) on Day 2. A clear ceiling effect of scores was demonstrated in the current assessment form, questioning its validity. The proposed score sheet provides more accurate scores and seems to be a better feedback instrument for learning technical surgical skills in the Basic Surgical Skills course.

Maternal Confidence for Physiologic Childbirth: A Concept Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Neerland, Carrie E

2018-06-06

Confidence is a term often used in research literature and consumer media in relation to birth, but maternal confidence has not been clearly defined, especially as it relates to physiologic labor and birth. The aim of this concept analysis was to define maternal confidence in the context of physiologic labor and childbirth. Rodgers' evolutionary method was used to identify attributes, antecedents, and consequences of maternal confidence for physiologic birth. Databases searched included Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Sociological Abstracts from the years 1995 to 2015. A total of 505 articles were retrieved, using the search terms pregnancy, obstetric care, prenatal care, and self-efficacy and the keyword confidence. Articles were identified for in-depth review and inclusion based on whether the term confidence was used or assessed in relationship to labor and/or birth. In addition, a hand search of the reference lists of the selected articles was performed. Twenty-four articles were reviewed in this concept analysis. We define maternal confidence for physiologic birth as a woman's belief that physiologic birth can be achieved, based on her view of birth as a normal process and her belief in her body's innate ability to birth, which is supported by social support, knowledge, and information founded on a trusted relationship with a maternity care provider in an environment where the woman feels safe. This concept analysis advances the concept of maternal confidence for physiologic birth and provides new insight into how women's confidence for physiologic birth might be enhanced during the prenatal period. Further investigation of confidence for physiologic birth across different cultures is needed to identify cultural differences in constructions of the concept. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

Reducing public communication apprehension by boosting self confidence on communication competence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Rachmi

2012-07-01

medical doctor should be competent in communicating with others. Some students at the medical faculty Universitas Mulawarman tend to be silent at public communication training, and this is thought to be influenced by communication anxiety. This study aimed to analyze the possibility of self-confidence on communication competence and communication skills are risk factors of communication apprehension. Methods: This study was conducted on 55 students at the medical faculty Universitas Mulawarman.  Public communication apprehension was measured using the Personal Report of Communication Apprehension (PRCA-24. Confidence in communication competence was determined by the Self Perceived Communication Competence scale (SPCC.  Communication skills were based on the instructor’s score during the communication training program. Data were analyzed by linear regression to identify dominant factors using STATA 9.0. Results: The study showed a negative association between public communication apprehension and students’ self confidence in communication competence [coefficient regression (CR =-0.13; p=0.000; 95% confidence interval (CI=-0.20; -0.52]. However, it was not related to communication skills (p=0.936. Among twelve traits of self confidence on communication competence, students who had confidence to talk to a group of strangers had lower public communication apprehension (adjusted CR=-0.13; CI=-0.21; 0.05; p=0.002. Conclusions:  Increased confidence in their communication competence will reduce the degree of public communication apprehension by students. Therefore, the faculty should provide more opportunities for students to practice public communication, in particular, talking to a group of strangers more frequently. (Health Science Indones 2010; 1: 37 - 42

Application of Interval Arithmetic in the Evaluation of Transfer Capabilities by Considering the Sources of Uncertainty

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Prabha Umapathy

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Total transfer capability (TTC is an important index in a power system with large volume of inter-area power exchanges. This paper proposes a novel technique to determine the TTC and its confidence intervals in the system by considering the uncertainties in the load and line parameters. The optimal power flow (OPF method is used to obtain the TTC. Variations in the load and line parameters are incorporated using the interval arithmetic (IA method. The IEEE 30 bus test system is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. Various uncertainties in the line, load and both line and load are incorporated in the evaluation of total transfer capability. From the results, it is observed that the solutions obtained through the proposed method provide much wider information in terms of closed interval form which is more useful in ensuring secured operation of the interconnected system in the presence of uncertainties in load and line parameters.

Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Oshins

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

Science.gov (United States)

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling. M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.;

ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

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Fernando Luis, Gache

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

Chosen interval methods for solving linear interval systems with special type of matrix

Science.gov (United States)

Szyszka, Barbara

2013-10-01

The paper is devoted to chosen direct interval methods for solving linear interval systems with special type of matrix. This kind of matrix: band matrix with a parameter, from finite difference problem is obtained. Such linear systems occur while solving one dimensional wave equation (Partial Differential Equations of hyperbolic type) by using the central difference interval method of the second order. Interval methods are constructed so as the errors of method are enclosed in obtained results, therefore presented linear interval systems contain elements that determining the errors of difference method. The chosen direct algorithms have been applied for solving linear systems because they have no errors of method. All calculations were performed in floating-point interval arithmetic.

Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, Timothy C

2009-06-01

The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-06-01

The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2008-12-15

The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

Data.gov (United States)

Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

Confidence in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Experience from Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christof Schwenkel

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Alternative Dispute Resolution plays a crucial role in the justice system of Switzerland. With the unified Swiss Code of Civil Procedure, it is required that each litigation session shall be preceded by an attempt at conciliation before a conciliation authority. However, there has been little research on conciliation authorities and the public's perception of the authorities. This paper looks at public confidence in conciliation authorities and provides results of a survey conducted with more than 3,400 participants. This study found that public confidence in Swiss conciliation authorities is generally high, exceeds the ratings for confidence in cantonal governments and parliaments, but is lower than confidence in courts.Since the institutional models of the conciliation authorities (meaning the organization of the authorities and the selection of the conciliators differ widely between the 26 Swiss cantons, the influence of the institutional models on public confidence is analyzed. Contrary to assumptions based on New Institutional-ism approaches, this study reports that the institutional models do not impact public confidence. Also, the relationship between a participation in an election of justices of the peace or conciliators and public confidence in these authorities is found to be at most very limited (and negative. Similar to common findings on courts, the results show that general contacts with conciliation authorities decrease public confidence in these institutions whereas a positive experience with a conciliation authority leads to more confidence.The Study was completed as part of the research project 'Basic Research into Court Management in Switzerland', supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF. Christof Schwenkel is a PhD student at the University of Lucerne and a research associate and project manager at Interface Policy Studies. A first version of this article was presented at the 2013 European Group for Public

Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

2017-01-01

Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Primary care physicians' perceptions about and confidence in deciding which patients to refer for total joint arthroplasty of the hip and knee.

Science.gov (United States)

Waugh, E J; Badley, E M; Borkhoff, C M; Croxford, R; Davis, A M; Dunn, S; Gignac, M A; Jaglal, S B; Sale, J; Hawker, G A

2016-03-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the perceptions of primary care physicians (PCPs) regarding indications, contraindications, risks and benefits of total joint arthroplasty (TJA) and their confidence in selecting patients for referral for TJA. PCPs recruited from among those providing care to participants in an established community cohort with hip or knee osteoarthritis (OA). Self-completed questionnaires were used to collect demographic and practice characteristics and perceptions about TJA. Confidence in referring appropriate patients for TJA was measured on a scale from 1 to 10; respondents scoring in the lowest tertile were considered to have 'low confidence'. Descriptive analyses were conducted and multiple logistic regression was used to determine key predictors of low confidence. 212 PCPs participated (58% response rate) (65% aged 50+ years, 45% female, 77% >15 years of practice). Perceptions about TJA were highly variable but on average, PCPs perceived that a typical surgical candidate would have moderate pain and disability, identified few absolute contraindications to TJA, and overestimated both the effectiveness and risks of TJA. On average, PCPs indicated moderate confidence in deciding who to refer. Independent predictors of low confidence were female physicians (OR = 2.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-4.46) and reporting a 'lack of clarity about surgical indications' (OR = 3.54, 95% CI: 1.87-6.66). Variability in perceptions and lack of clarity about surgical indications underscore the need for decision support tools to inform PCP - patient decision making regarding referral for TJA. Copyright © 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Normal probability plots with confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

2015-01-01

Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The Total Deviation Index estimated by Tolerance Intervals to evaluate the concordance of measurement devices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ascaso Carlos

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In an agreement assay, it is of interest to evaluate the degree of agreement between the different methods (devices, instruments or observers used to measure the same characteristic. We propose in this study a technical simplification for inference about the total deviation index (TDI estimate to assess agreement between two devices of normally-distributed measurements and describe its utility to evaluate inter- and intra-rater agreement if more than one reading per subject is available for each device. Methods We propose to estimate the TDI by constructing a probability interval of the difference in paired measurements between devices, and thereafter, we derive a tolerance interval (TI procedure as a natural way to make inferences about probability limit estimates. We also describe how the proposed method can be used to compute bounds of the coverage probability. Results The approach is illustrated in a real case example where the agreement between two instruments, a handle mercury sphygmomanometer device and an OMRON 711 automatic device, is assessed in a sample of 384 subjects where measures of systolic blood pressure were taken twice by each device. A simulation study procedure is implemented to evaluate and compare the accuracy of the approach to two already established methods, showing that the TI approximation produces accurate empirical confidence levels which are reasonably close to the nominal confidence level. Conclusions The method proposed is straightforward since the TDI estimate is derived directly from a probability interval of a normally-distributed variable in its original scale, without further transformations. Thereafter, a natural way of making inferences about this estimate is to derive the appropriate TI. Constructions of TI based on normal populations are implemented in most standard statistical packages, thus making it simpler for any practitioner to implement our proposal to assess agreement.

Maternal and paternal age, birth order and interpregnancy interval evaluation for cleft lip-palate.

Science.gov (United States)

Martelli, Daniella Reis Barbosa; Cruz, Kaliany Wanessa da; Barros, Letízia Monteiro de; Silveira, Marise Fernandes; Swerts, Mário Sérgio Oliveira; Martelli Júnior, Hercílio

2010-01-01

Cleft lip and palate (CL/P) are the most common congenital craniofacial anomalies. To evaluate environmental risk factors for non-syndromic CL/P in a reference care center in Minas Gerais. we carried out a case-controlled study, assessing 100 children with clefts and 100 children without clinical alterations. The analysis dimensions (age, skin color, gender, fissure classification, maternal and paternal age, birth order and interpregnancy interval), obtained from a questionnaire; and later we build a data base and the analyses were carried out by the SPSS 17.0 software. The results were analyzed with the relative risk for each variable, in order to estimate the odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval, followed by a bivariate and multivariate analysis. among 200 children, 54% were males and 46% were females. As far as skin color is concerned most were brown, white and black, respectively. Cleft palates were the most common fissures found (54%), followed by lip cleft (30%) and palate cleft (16%). although with a limited sample, we noticed an association between maternal age and an increased risk for cleft lip and palate; however, paternal age, pregnancy order and interpregnancy interval were not significant.

High-intensity cycle interval training improves cycling and running performance in triathletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Etxebarria, Naroa; Anson, Judith M; Pyne, David B; Ferguson, Richard A

2014-01-01

Effective cycle training for triathlon is a challenge for coaches. We compared the effects of two variants of cycle high-intensity interval training (HIT) on triathlon-specific cycling and running. Fourteen moderately-trained male triathletes ([Formula: see text]O2peak 58.7 ± 8.1 mL kg(-1) min(-1); mean ± SD) completed on separate occasions a maximal incremental test ([Formula: see text]O2peak and maximal aerobic power), 16 × 20 s cycle sprints and a 1-h triathlon-specific cycle followed immediately by a 5 km run time trial. Participants were then pair-matched and assigned randomly to either a long high-intensity interval training (LONG) (6-8 × 5 min efforts) or short high-intensity interval training (SHORT) (9-11 × 10, 20 and 40 s efforts) HIT cycle training intervention. Six training sessions were completed over 3 weeks before participants repeated the baseline testing. Both groups had an ∼7% increase in [Formula: see text]O2peak (SHORT 7.3%, ±4.6%; mean, ±90% confidence limits; LONG 7.5%, ±1.7%). There was a moderate improvement in mean power for both the SHORT (10.3%, ±4.4%) and LONG (10.7%, ±6.8%) groups during the last eight 20-s sprints. There was a small to moderate decrease in heart rate, blood lactate and perceived exertion in both groups during the 1-h triathlon-specific cycling but only the LONG group had a substantial decrease in the subsequent 5-km run time (64, ±59 s). Moderately-trained triathletes should use both short and long high-intensity intervals to improve cycling physiology and performance. Longer 5-min intervals on the bike are more likely to benefit 5 km running performance.

Reference Interval and Subject Variation in Excretion of Urinary Metabolites of Nicotine from Non-Smoking Healthy Subjects in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Å. M.; Garde, A. H.; Christensen, J. M.

2001-01-01

for determination of cotinine was carried out on 27 samples from non-smokers and smokers. Results obtained from the RIA method showed 2.84 [confidence interval (CI): 2.50; 3.18] times higher results compared to the GC-MS method. A linear correlation between the two methods was demonstrated (rho=0.96). CONCLUSION......BACKGROUND: Passive smoking has been found to be a respiratory health hazard in humans. The present study describes the calculation of a reference interval for urinary nicotine metabolites calculated as cotinine equivalents on the basis of 72 non-smokers exposed to tobacco smoke less than 25....... Parametric reference interval for excretion of nicotine metabolites in urine from non-smokers was established according to International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) and International Federation for Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) for use of risk assessment of exposure to tobacco smoke...

Music educators : their artistry and self-confidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lion-Slovak, Brigitte; Stöger, Christine; Smilde, Rineke; Malmberg, Isolde; de Vugt, Adri

2013-01-01

How does artistic identity influence the self-confidence of music educators? What is the interconnection between the artistic and the teacher identity? What is actually meant by artistic identity in music education? What is a fruitful environment for the development of artistic self-confidence of

Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kramer, Marc M.

2016-01-01

We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

Confidence building in implementation of geological disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, Hiroyuki

2004-01-01

Long-term safety of the disposal system should be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the stakeholders. Convincing arguments are therefore required that instil in the stakeholders confidence in the safety of a particular concept for the siting and design of a geological disposal, given the uncertainties that inevitably exist in its a priori description and in its evolution. The step-wise approach associated with making safety case at each stage is a key to building confidence in the repository development programme. This paper discusses aspects and issues on confidence building in the implementation of HLW disposal in Japan. (author)

On interval and cyclic interval edge colorings of (3,5)-biregular graphs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Casselgren, Carl Johan; Petrosyan, Petros; Toft, Bjarne

2017-01-01

A proper edge coloring f of a graph G with colors 1,2,3,…,t is called an interval coloring if the colors on the edges incident to every vertex of G form an interval of integers. The coloring f is cyclic interval if for every vertex v of G, the colors on the edges incident to v either form an inte...

Frontline nurse managers' confidence and self-efficacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Dyk, Jennifer; Siedlecki, Sandra L; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

2016-05-01

This study was focused on determining relationships between confidence levels and self-efficacy among nurse managers. Frontline nurse managers have a pivotal role in delivering high-quality patient care while managing the associated costs and resources. The competency and skill of nurse managers affect every aspect of patient care and staff well-being as nurse managers are largely responsible for creating work environments in which clinical nurses are able to provide high-quality, patient-centred, holistic care. A descriptive, correlational survey design was used; 85 nurse managers participated. Years in a formal leadership role and confidence scores were found to be significant predictors of self-efficacy scores. Experience as a nurse manager is an important component of confidence and self-efficacy. There is a need to develop educational programmes for nurse managers to enhance their self-confidence and self-efficacy, and to maintain experienced nurse managers in the role. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

Science.gov (United States)

de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

2015-01-01

Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene

2017-01-01

Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255

Circadian profile of QT interval and QT interval variability in 172 healthy volunteers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonnemeier, Hendrik; Wiegand, Uwe K H; Braasch, Wiebke

2003-01-01

of sleep. QT and R-R intervals revealed a characteristic day-night-pattern. Diurnal profiles of QT interval variability exhibited a significant increase in the morning hours (6-9 AM; P ... lower at day- and nighttime. Aging was associated with an increase of QT interval mainly at daytime and a significant shift of the T wave apex towards the end of the T wave. The circadian profile of ventricular repolarization is strongly related to the mean R-R interval, however, there are significant...

Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra Buratti

2012-09-01

Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isaacs, T

2002-01-01

Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isaacs, T

2002-01-01

Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

Confidence Estimation of Reliability Indices of the System with Elements Duplication and Recovery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. V. Pavlov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article considers a problem to estimate a confidence interval of the main reliability indices such as availability rate, mean time between failures, and operative availability (in the stationary state for the model of the system with duplication and independent recovery of elements.Presents a solution of the problem for a situation that often arises in practice, when there are unknown exact values of the reliability parameters of the elements, and only test data of the system or its individual parts (elements, subsystems for reliability are known. It should be noted that the problems of the confidence estimate of reliability indices of the complex systems based on the testing results of their individual elements are fairly common function in engineering practice when designing and running the various engineering systems. The available papers consider this problem, mainly, for non-recovery systems.Describes a solution of this problem for the important particular case when the system elements are duplicated by the reserved elements, and the elements that have failed in the course of system operation are recovered (regardless of the state of other elements.An approximate solution of this problem is obtained for the case of high reliability or "fast recovery" of elements on the assumption that the average recovery time of elements is small as compared to the average time between failures.

Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

OpenAIRE

Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

2014-01-01

While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

Science.gov (United States)

Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

2014-01-01

Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

Effects of Training and Feedback on Accuracy of Predicting Rectosigmoid Neoplastic Lesions and Selection of Surveillance Intervals by Endoscopists Performing Optical Diagnosis of Diminutive Polyps.

Science.gov (United States)

Vleugels, Jasper L A; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G W; Hazewinkel, Yark; Wanders, Linda K; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien

2018-05-01

Real-time differentiation of diminutive polyps (1-5 mm) during endoscopy could replace histopathology analysis. According to guidelines, implementation of optical diagnosis into routine practice would require it to identify rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions with a negative predictive value (NPV) of more than 90%, using histologic findings as a reference, and agreement with histology-based surveillance intervals for more than 90% of cases. We performed a prospective study with 39 endoscopists accredited to perform colonoscopies on participants with positive results from fecal immunochemical tests in the Bowel Cancer Screening Program at 13 centers in the Netherlands. Endoscopists were trained in optical diagnosis using a validated module (Workgroup serrAted polypS and Polyposis). After meeting predefined performance thresholds in the training program, the endoscopists started a 1-year program (continuation phase) in which they performed narrow band imaging analyses during colonoscopies of participants in the screening program and predicted histological findings with confidence levels. The endoscopists were randomly assigned to groups that received feedback or no feedback on the accuracy of their predictions. Primary outcome measures were endoscopists' abilities to identify rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions (using histology as a reference) with NPVs of 90% or more, and selecting surveillance intervals that agreed with those determined by histology for at least 90% of cases. Of 39 endoscopists initially trained, 27 (69%) completed the training program. During the continuation phase, these 27 endoscopists performed 3144 colonoscopies in which 4504 diminutive polyps were removed. The endoscopists identified neoplastic lesions with a pooled NPV of 90.8% (95% confidence interval 88.6-92.6); their proposed surveillance intervals agreed with those determined by histologic analysis for 95.4% of cases (95% confidence interval 94.0-96.6). Findings did not differ between the group

Effects of postidentification feedback on eyewitness identification and nonidentification confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L

2004-04-01

Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency.

Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.

Science.gov (United States)

Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve

2011-05-01

  Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar

Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Jaeger

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

Establishment of reference intervals for plasma protein electrophoresis in Indo-Pacific green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas.

Science.gov (United States)

Flint, Mark; Matthews, Beren J; Limpus, Colin J; Mills, Paul C

2015-01-01

Biochemical and haematological parameters are increasingly used to diagnose disease in green sea turtles. Specific clinical pathology tools, such as plasma protein electrophoresis analysis, are now being used more frequently to improve our ability to diagnose disease in the live animal. Plasma protein reference intervals were calculated from 55 clinically healthy green sea turtles using pulsed field electrophoresis to determine pre-albumin, albumin, α-, β- and γ-globulin concentrations. The estimated reference intervals were then compared with data profiles from clinically unhealthy turtles admitted to a local wildlife hospital to assess the validity of the derived intervals and identify the clinically useful plasma protein fractions. Eighty-six per cent {19 of 22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 65-97]} of clinically unhealthy turtles had values outside the derived reference intervals, including the following: total protein [six of 22 turtles or 27% (95% CI 11-50%)], pre-albumin [two of five, 40% (95% CI 5-85%)], albumin [13 of 22, 59% (95% CI 36-79%)], total albumin [13 of 22, 59% (95% CI 36-79%)], α- [10 of 22, 45% (95% CI 24-68%)], β- [two of 10, 20% (95% CI 3-56%)], γ- [one of 10, 10% (95% CI 0.3-45%)] and β-γ-globulin [one of 12, 8% (95% CI 0.2-38%)] and total globulin [five of 22, 23% (8-45%)]. Plasma protein electrophoresis shows promise as an accurate adjunct tool to identify a disease state in marine turtles. This study presents the first reference interval for plasma protein electrophoresis in the Indo-Pacific green sea turtle.

High confidence in falsely recognizing prototypical faces.

Science.gov (United States)

Sampaio, Cristina; Reinke, Victoria; Mathews, Jeffrey; Swart, Alexandra; Wallinger, Stephen

2018-06-01

We applied a metacognitive approach to investigate confidence in recognition of prototypical faces. Participants were presented with sets of faces constructed digitally as deviations from prototype/base faces. Participants were then tested with a simple recognition task (Experiment 1) or a multiple-choice task (Experiment 2) for old and new items plus new prototypes, and they showed a high rate of confident false alarms to the prototypes. Confidence and accuracy relationship in this face recognition paradigm was found to be positive for standard items but negative for the prototypes; thus, it was contingent on the nature of the items used. The data have implications for lineups that employ match-to-suspect strategies.

Confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Estes, Zachary; Felker, Sydney

2012-06-01

On tasks that require the mental rotation of 3-dimensional figures, males typically exhibit higher accuracy than females. Using the most common measure of mental rotation (i.e., the Mental Rotations Test), we investigated whether individual variability in confidence mediates this sex difference in mental rotation performance. In each of four experiments, the sex difference was reliably elicited and eliminated by controlling or manipulating participants' confidence. Specifically, confidence predicted performance within and between sexes (Experiment 1), rendering confidence irrelevant to the task reliably eliminated the sex difference in performance (Experiments 2 and 3), and manipulating confidence significantly affected performance (Experiment 4). Thus, confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance and hence the sex difference appears to be a difference of performance rather than ability. Results are discussed in relation to other potential mediators and mechanisms, such as gender roles, sex stereotypes, spatial experience, rotation strategies, working memory, and spatial attention.

Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

2018-01-01

We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…

Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jimenez, O.; Solis-Prosser, M. A.; Delgado, A.; Neves, L.

2011-01-01

We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of sequential maximum-confidence (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.

Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

2008-04-02

A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

Transparent predictive modelling of the twin screw granulation process using a compensated interval type-2 fuzzy system.

Science.gov (United States)

AlAlaween, Wafa' H; Khorsheed, Bilal; Mahfouf, Mahdi; Gabbott, Ian; Reynolds, Gavin K; Salman, Agba D

2018-03-01

In this research, a new systematic modelling framework which uses machine learning for describing the granulation process is presented. First, an interval type-2 fuzzy model is elicited in order to predict the properties of the granules produced by twin screw granulation (TSG) in the pharmaceutical industry. Second, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is integrated in the framework in order to characterize the error residuals emanating from the fuzzy model. This is done to refine the model by taking into account uncertainties and/or any other unmodelled behaviour, stochastic or otherwise. All proposed modelling algorithms were validated via a series of Laboratory-scale experiments. The size of the granules produced by TSG was successfully predicted, where most of the predictions fit within a 95% confidence interval. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Functional Dissociation of Confident and Not-Confident Errors in the Spatial Delayed Response Task Demonstrates Impairments in Working Memory Encoding and Maintenance in Schizophrenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jutta S. Mayer

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Even though extensively investigated, the nature of working memory (WM deficits in patients with schizophrenia (PSZ is not yet fully understood. In particular, the contribution of different WM sub-processes to the severe WM deficit observed in PSZ is a matter of debate. So far, most research has focused on impaired WM maintenance. By analyzing different types of errors in a spatial delayed response task (DRT, we have recently demonstrated that incorrect yet confident responses (which we labeled as false memory errors rather than incorrect/not-confident responses reflect failures of WM encoding, which was also impaired in PSZ. In the present study, we provide further evidence for a functional dissociation between confident and not-confident errors by manipulating the demands on WM maintenance, i.e., the length over which information has to be maintained in WM. Furthermore, we investigate whether these functionally distinguishable WM processes are impaired in PSZ. Twenty-four PSZ and 24 demographically matched healthy controls (HC performed a spatial DRT in which the length of the delay period was varied between 1, 2, 4, and 6 s. In each trial, participants also rated their level of response confidence. Across both groups, longer delays led to increased rates of incorrect/not-confident responses, while incorrect/confident responses were not affected by delay length. This functional dissociation provides additional support for our proposal that false memory errors (i.e., confident errors reflect problems at the level of WM encoding, while not-confident errors reflect failures of WM maintenance. Schizophrenic patients showed increased numbers of both confident and not-confident errors, suggesting that both sub-processes of WM—encoding and maintenance—are impaired in schizophrenia. Combined with the delay length-dependent functional dissociation, we propose that these impairments in schizophrenic patients are functionally distinguishable.

Effects of confidence and anxiety on flow state in competition.

Science.gov (United States)

Koehn, Stefan

2013-01-01

Confidence and anxiety are important variables that underlie the experience of flow in sport. Specifically, research has indicated that confidence displays a positive relationship and anxiety a negative relationship with flow. The aim of this study was to assess potential direct and indirect effects of confidence and anxiety dimensions on flow state in tennis competition. A sample of 59 junior tennis players completed measures of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2d and Flow State Scale-2. Following predictive analysis, results showed significant positive correlations between confidence (intensity and direction) and anxiety symptoms (only directional perceptions) with flow state. Standard multiple regression analysis indicated confidence as the only significant predictor of flow. The results confirmed a protective function of confidence against debilitating anxiety interpretations, but there were no significant interaction effects between confidence and anxiety on flow state.

Preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching school violence prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Kandakai, Tina L; King, Keith A

2002-01-01

To examine preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention and the potential effect of violence-prevention training on preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. Six Ohio universities participated in the study. More than 800 undergraduate and graduate students completed surveys. Violence-prevention training, area of certification, and location of student- teaching placement significantly influenced preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention. Violence-prevention training positively influences preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. The results suggest that such training should be considered as a requirement for teacher preparation programs.

Self Confidence Spillovers and Motivated Beliefs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Banerjee, Ritwik; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Villeval, Marie Claire

that success when competing in a task increases the performers’ self-confidence and competitiveness in the subsequent task. We also find that such spillovers affect the self-confidence of low-status individuals more than that of high-status individuals. Receiving good news under Affirmative Action, however......Is success in a task used strategically by individuals to motivate their beliefs prior to taking action in a subsequent, unrelated, task? Also, is the distortion of beliefs reinforced for individuals who have lower status in society? Conducting an artefactual field experiment in India, we show...

Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Ndhlovu, T

2009-11-01

Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

Coping skills: role of trait sport confidence and trait anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Cresswell, Scott; Hodge, Ken

2004-04-01

The current research assesses relationships among coping skills, trait sport confidence, and trait anxiety. Two samples (n=47 and n=77) of international competitors from surf life saving (M=23.7 yr.) and touch rugby (M=26.2 yr.) completed the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Sport Anxiety Scale. Analysis yielded significant correlations amongst trait anxiety, sport confidence, and coping. Specifically confidence scores were positively associated with coping with adversity scores and anxiety scores were negatively associated. These findings support the inclusion of the personality characteristics of confidence and anxiety within the coping model presented by Hardy, Jones, and Gould, Researchers should be aware that confidence and anxiety may influence the coping processes of athletes.

Reclaim your creative confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

2012-12-01

Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

Ambulatory Function and Perception of Confidence in Persons with Stroke with a Custom-Made Hinged versus a Standard Ankle Foot Orthosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angélique Slijper

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. The aim was to compare walking with an individually designed dynamic hinged ankle foot orthosis (DAFO and a standard carbon composite ankle foot orthosis (C-AFO. Methods. Twelve participants, mean age 56 years (range 26–72, with hemiparesis due to stroke were included in the study. During the six-minute walk test (6MW, walking velocity, the Physiological Cost Index (PCI, and the degree of experienced exertion were measured with a DAFO and C-AFO, respectively, followed by a Stairs Test velocity and perceived confidence was rated. Results. The mean differences in favor for the DAFO were in 6MW 24.3 m (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.90, 43.76, PCI −0.09 beats/m (95% CI −0.27, 0.95, velocity 0.04 m/s (95% CI −0.01, 0.097, and in the Stairs Test −11.8 s (95% CI −19.05, −4.48. All participants except one perceived the degree of experienced exertion lower and felt more confident when walking with the DAFO. Conclusions. Wearing a DAFO resulted in longer walking distance and faster stair climbing compared to walking with a C-AFO. Eleven of twelve participants felt more confident with the DAFO, which may be more important than speed and distance and the most important reason for prescribing an AFO.

Factors affecting midwives' confidence in intrapartum care: a phenomenological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bedwell, Carol; McGowan, Linda; Lavender, Tina

2015-01-01

midwives are frequently the lead providers of care for women throughout labour and birth. In order to perform their role effectively and provide women with the choices they require midwives need to be confident in their practice. This study explores factors which may affect midwives' confidence in their practice. hermeneutic phenomenology formed the theoretical basis for the study. Prospective longitudinal data collection was completed using diaries and semi-structured interviews. Twelve midwives providing intrapartum care in a variety of settings were recruited to ensure a variety of experiences in different contexts were captured. the principal factor affecting workplace confidence, both positively and negatively, was the influence of colleagues. Perceived autonomy and a sense of familiarity could also enhance confidence. However, conflict in the workplace was a critical factor in reducing midwives' confidence. Confidence was an important, but fragile, phenomenon to midwives and they used a variety of coping strategies, emotional intelligence and presentation management to maintain it. this is the first study to highlight both the factors influencing midwives' workplace confidence and the strategies midwives employed to maintain their confidence. Confidence is important in maintaining well-being and workplace culture may play a role in explaining the current low morale within the midwifery workforce. This may have implications for women's choices and care. Support, effective leadership and education may help midwives develop and sustain a positive sense of confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaylson Jair da Silveira

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.

The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

2011-01-01

This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings.

Large Sample Confidence Intervals for Item Response Theory Reliability Coefficients

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, Björn; Xin, Tao

2018-01-01

In applications of item response theory (IRT), an estimate of the reliability of the ability estimates or sum scores is often reported. However, analytical expressions for the standard errors of the estimators of the reliability coefficients are not available in the literature and therefore the variability associated with the estimated reliability…

Interval stability for complex systems

Science.gov (United States)

Klinshov, Vladimir V.; Kirillov, Sergey; Kurths, Jürgen; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.

2018-04-01

Stability of dynamical systems against strong perturbations is an important problem of nonlinear dynamics relevant to many applications in various areas. Here, we develop a novel concept of interval stability, referring to the behavior of the perturbed system during a finite time interval. Based on this concept, we suggest new measures of stability, namely interval basin stability (IBS) and interval stability threshold (IST). IBS characterizes the likelihood that the perturbed system returns to the stable regime (attractor) in a given time. IST provides the minimal magnitude of the perturbation capable to disrupt the stable regime for a given interval of time. The suggested measures provide important information about the system susceptibility to external perturbations which may be useful for practical applications. Moreover, from a theoretical viewpoint the interval stability measures are shown to bridge the gap between linear and asymptotic stability. We also suggest numerical algorithms for quantification of the interval stability characteristics and demonstrate their potential for several dynamical systems of various nature, such as power grids and neural networks.

BRIDGING GAPS BETWEEN ZOO AND WILDLIFE MEDICINE: ESTABLISHING REFERENCE INTERVALS FOR FREE-RANGING AFRICAN LIONS (PANTHERA LEO).

Science.gov (United States)

Broughton, Heather M; Govender, Danny; Shikwambana, Purvance; Chappell, Patrick; Jolles, Anna

2017-06-01

The International Species Information System has set forth an extensive database of reference intervals for zoologic species, allowing veterinarians and game park officials to distinguish normal health parameters from underlying disease processes in captive wildlife. However, several recent studies comparing reference values from captive and free-ranging animals have found significant variation between populations, necessitating the development of separate reference intervals in free-ranging wildlife to aid in the interpretation of health data. Thus, this study characterizes reference intervals for six biochemical analytes, eleven hematologic or immune parameters, and three hormones using samples from 219 free-ranging African lions ( Panthera leo ) captured in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Using the original sample population, exclusion criteria based on physical examination were applied to yield a final reference population of 52 clinically normal lions. Reference intervals were then generated via 90% confidence intervals on log-transformed data using parametric bootstrapping techniques. In addition to the generation of reference intervals, linear mixed-effect models and generalized linear mixed-effect models were used to model associations of each focal parameter with the following independent variables: age, sex, and body condition score. Age and sex were statistically significant drivers for changes in hepatic enzymes, renal values, hematologic parameters, and leptin, a hormone related to body fat stores. Body condition was positively correlated with changes in monocyte counts. Given the large variation in reference values taken from captive versus free-ranging lions, it is our hope that this study will serve as a baseline for future clinical evaluations and biomedical research targeting free-ranging African lions.

Consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in internet payments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Franc Bračun

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Performing payment transactions over the Internet is becoming increasingly important. Whenever one interacts with others, he or she faces the problem of uncertainty because in interacting with others, one makes him or herself vulnerable, i.e. one can be betrayed. Thus, perceived risk and confidence are of fundamental importance in electronic payment transactions. A higher risk leads to greater hesitance about entering into a business relationship with a high degree of uncertainty; and therefore, to an increased need for confidence. This paper has two objectives. First, it aims to introduce and test a theoretical model that predicts consumer and merchant acceptance of the Internet payment solution by explaining the complex set of relationships among the key factors influencing confidence in electronic payment transactions. Second, the paper attempts to shed light on the complex interrelationship among confidence, control and perceived risk. An empirical study was conducted to test the proposed model using data from consumers and merchants in Slovenia. The results show how perceived risk dimensions and post-transaction control influence consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in electronic payment transactions, and the impact of confidence on the adoption of mass-market on-line payment solutions.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the measurement of whole body muscle mass: A comparison of interval gap methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hellmanns, K.; McBean, K.; Thoirs, K.

2015-01-01

Purpose: Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is commonly used in body composition research to measure whole body skeletal muscle mass (SM). MRI calculation methods of SM can vary by analysing the images at different slice intervals (or interval gaps) along the length of the body. This study compared SM measurements made from MRI images of apparently healthy individuals using different interval gap methods to determine the error associated with each technique. It was anticipated that the results would inform researchers of optimum interval gap measurements to detect a predetermined minimum change in SM. Methods: A method comparison study was used to compare eight interval gap methods (interval gaps of 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 100, 120 and 140 mm) against a reference 10 mm interval gap method for measuring SM from twenty MRI image sets acquired from apparently healthy participants. Pearson product-moment correlation analysis was used to determine the association between methods. Total error was calculated as the sum of the bias (systematic error) and the random error (limits of agreement) of the mean differences. Percentage error was used to demonstrate proportional error. Results: Pearson product-moment correlation analysis between the reference method and all interval gap methods demonstrated strong and significant associations (r > 0.99, p < 0.0001). The 40 mm interval gap method was comparable with the 10 mm interval reference method and had a low error (total error 0.95 kg, −3.4%). Analysis methods using wider interval gap techniques demonstrated larger errors than reported for dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), a technique which is more available, less expensive, and less time consuming than MRI analysis of SM. Conclusions: Researchers using MRI to measure SM can be confident in using a 40 mm interval gap technique when analysing the images to detect minimum changes less than 1 kg. The use of wider intervals will introduce error that is no better

Non-Asymptotic Confidence Sets for Circular Means

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Hotz

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The mean of data on the unit circle is defined as the minimizer of the average squared Euclidean distance to the data. Based on Hoeffding’s mass concentration inequalities, non-asymptotic confidence sets for circular means are constructed which are universal in the sense that they require no distributional assumptions. These are then compared with asymptotic confidence sets in simulations and for a real data set.

Methodology for building confidence measures

Science.gov (United States)

Bramson, Aaron L.

2004-04-01

This paper presents a generalized methodology for propagating known or estimated levels of individual source document truth reliability to determine the confidence level of a combined output. Initial document certainty levels are augmented by (i) combining the reliability measures of multiply sources, (ii) incorporating the truth reinforcement of related elements, and (iii) incorporating the importance of the individual elements for determining the probability of truth for the whole. The result is a measure of confidence in system output based on the establishing of links among the truth values of inputs. This methodology was developed for application to a multi-component situation awareness tool under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Rome, New York. Determining how improvements in data quality and the variety of documents collected affect the probability of a correct situational detection helps optimize the performance of the tool overall.

Remembering September 11th: the role of retention interval and rehearsal on flashbulb and event memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro, Lauren R

2006-02-01

Retention interval and rehearsal effects on flashbulb and event memory for 11th September 2001 (9/11) were examined. In Experiment 1, college students were assessed three times (Groups 1 and 2) or once (Group 3) over 11 weeks. In Experiment 2, three new groups assessed initially at 23 weeks (Group 4), 1 year (Group 5), or 2 years (Group 6) were compared at 1 year and at 2 years with subsamples of those assessed previously. No effects of retention interval length or rehearsal were found for flashbulb memory, which contained details at each assessment. Event memory, but not consistency, was detrimentally affected by long retention intervals, but improved with rehearsal. Recall was higher for the reception event than for the main events. Also, consistency from 1 day to 11 weeks, but not 1 year to 2 years, was higher for flashbulb memory than for event memory. Event recall was enhanced when respondents conceived of their memory as vivid, frozen, and encompassing a longer period of time. Positive correlations were found for event memory with confidence in accuracy and with rehearsal through discussion at 2 years.

The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

2009-01-01

Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

Science.gov (United States)

Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

2008-09-01

This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

Statistics of return intervals between long heartbeat intervals and their usability for online prediction of disorders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogachev, Mikhail I; Bunde, Armin; Kireenkov, Igor S; Nifontov, Eugene M

2009-01-01

We study the statistics of return intervals between large heartbeat intervals (above a certain threshold Q) in 24 h records obtained from healthy subjects. We find that both the linear and the nonlinear long-term memory inherent in the heartbeat intervals lead to power-laws in the probability density function P Q (r) of the return intervals. As a consequence, the probability W Q (t; Δt) that at least one large heartbeat interval will occur within the next Δt heartbeat intervals, with an increasing elapsed number of intervals t after the last large heartbeat interval, follows a power-law. Based on these results, we suggest a method of obtaining a priori information about the occurrence of the next large heartbeat interval, and thus to predict it. We show explicitly that the proposed method, which exploits long-term memory, is superior to the conventional precursory pattern recognition technique, which focuses solely on short-term memory. We believe that our results can be straightforwardly extended to obtain more reliable predictions in other physiological signals like blood pressure, as well as in other complex records exhibiting multifractal behaviour, e.g. turbulent flow, precipitation, river flows and network traffic.

Family Health Histories and Their Impact on Retirement Confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Zick, Cathleen D; Mayer, Robert N; Smith, Ken R

2015-08-01

Retirement confidence is a key social barometer. In this article, we examine how personal and parental health histories relate to working-age adults' feelings of optimism or pessimism about their overall retirement prospects. This study links survey data on retirement planning with information on respondents' own health histories and those of their parents. The multivariate models control for the respondents' socio-demographic and economic characteristics along with past retirement planning activities when estimating the relationships between family health histories and retirement confidence. Retirement confidence is inversely related to parental history of cancer and cardiovascular disease but not to personal health history. In contrast, retirement confidence is positively associated with both parents being deceased. As members of the public become increasingly aware of how genetics and other family factors affect intergenerational transmission of chronic diseases, it is likely that the link between family health histories and retirement confidence will intensify. © The Author(s) 2015.

Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance

Science.gov (United States)

Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

2016-01-01

A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739

Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuzio, S.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this analysis is to develop a probability distribution for flowing interval spacing. A flowing interval is defined as a fractured zone that transmits flow in the Saturated Zone (SZ), as identified through borehole flow meter surveys (Figure 1). This analysis uses the term ''flowing interval spacing'' as opposed to fractured spacing, which is typically used in the literature. The term fracture spacing was not used in this analysis because the data used identify a zone (or a flowing interval) that contains fluid-conducting fractures but does not distinguish how many or which fractures comprise the flowing interval. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. Fracture spacing within the SZ is defined as the spacing between fractures, with no regard to which fractures are carrying flow. The Development Plan associated with this analysis is entitled, ''Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing'', (CRWMS M and O 2000a). The parameter from this analysis may be used in the TSPA SR/LA Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Work Direction and Planning Documents: (1) ''Abstraction of Matrix Diffusion for SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'' (CRWMS M and O 1999a) and (2) ''Incorporation of Heterogeneity in SZ Flow and Transport Analyses'', (CRWMS M and O 1999b). A limitation of this analysis is that the probability distribution of flowing interval spacing may underestimate the effect of incorporating matrix diffusion processes in the SZ transport model because of the possible overestimation of the flowing interval spacing. Larger flowing interval spacing results in a decrease in the matrix diffusion processes. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be determined from the data. Because each flowing interval probably has more than one fracture contributing to a flowing interval, the true flowing interval spacing could be

Two-sorted Point-Interval Temporal Logics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balbiani, Philippe; Goranko, Valentin; Sciavicco, Guido

2011-01-01

There are two natural and well-studied approaches to temporal ontology and reasoning: point-based and interval-based. Usually, interval-based temporal reasoning deals with points as particular, duration-less intervals. Here we develop explicitly two-sorted point-interval temporal logical framework...... whereby time instants (points) and time periods (intervals) are considered on a par, and the perspective can shift between them within the formal discourse. We focus on fragments involving only modal operators that correspond to the inter-sort relations between points and intervals. We analyze...

High-intensity interval training: Modulating interval duration in overweight/obese men.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith-Ryan, Abbie E; Melvin, Malia N; Wingfield, Hailee L

2015-05-01

High-intensity interval training (HIIT) is a time-efficient strategy shown to induce various cardiovascular and metabolic adaptations. Little is known about the optimal tolerable combination of intensity and volume necessary for adaptations, especially in clinical populations. In a randomized controlled pilot design, we evaluated the effects of two types of interval training protocols, varying in intensity and interval duration, on clinical outcomes in overweight/obese men. Twenty-five men [body mass index (BMI) > 25 kg · m(2)] completed baseline body composition measures: fat mass (FM), lean mass (LM) and percent body fat (%BF) and fasting blood glucose, lipids and insulin (IN). A graded exercise cycling test was completed for peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) and power output (PO). Participants were randomly assigned to high-intensity short interval (1MIN-HIIT), high-intensity interval (2MIN-HIIT) or control groups. 1MIN-HIIT and 2MIN-HIIT completed 3 weeks of cycling interval training, 3 days/week, consisting of either 10 × 1 min bouts at 90% PO with 1 min rests (1MIN-HIIT) or 5 × 2 min bouts with 1 min rests at undulating intensities (80%-100%) (2MIN-HIIT). There were no significant training effects on FM (Δ1.06 ± 1.25 kg) or %BF (Δ1.13% ± 1.88%), compared to CON. Increases in LM were not significant but increased by 1.7 kg and 2.1 kg for 1MIN and 2MIN-HIIT groups, respectively. Increases in VO2peak were also not significant for 1MIN (3.4 ml·kg(-1) · min(-1)) or 2MIN groups (2.7 ml · kg(-1) · min(-1)). IN sensitivity (HOMA-IR) improved for both training groups (Δ-2.78 ± 3.48 units; p < 0.05) compared to CON. HIIT may be an effective short-term strategy to improve cardiorespiratory fitness and IN sensitivity in overweight males.

Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

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Sébastien eMassoni

2014-12-01

Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

Self-confidence, overconfidence and prenatal testosterone exposure : Evidence from the lab

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dalton, Patricio S.; Ghosal, Sayantan

2018-01-01

This paper examines whether foetal testosterone exposure predicts the extent of confidence and over-confidence in own absolute ability in adulthood. To study this question, we elicited incentive-compatible measures of confidence and over-confidence in the lab and correlate them with measures of

Stability in the metamemory realism of eyewitness confidence judgments.

Science.gov (United States)

Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin; Johansson, Marcus

2014-02-01

The stability of eyewitness confidence judgments over time in regard to their reported memory and accuracy of these judgments is of interest in forensic contexts because witnesses are often interviewed many times. The present study investigated the stability of the confidence judgments of memory reports of a witnessed event and of the accuracy of these judgments over three occasions, each separated by 1 week. Three age groups were studied: younger children (8-9 years), older children (10-11 years), and adults (19-31 years). A total of 93 participants viewed a short film clip and were asked to answer directed two-alternative forced-choice questions about the film clip and to confidence judge each answer. Different questions about details in the film clip were used on each of the three test occasions. Confidence as such did not exhibit stability over time on an individual basis. However, the difference between confidence and proportion correct did exhibit stability across time, in terms of both over/underconfidence and calibration. With respect to age, the adults and older children exhibited more stability than the younger children for calibration. Furthermore, some support for instability was found with respect to the difference between the average confidence level for correct and incorrect answers (slope). Unexpectedly, however, the younger children's slope was found to be more stable than the adults. Compared to the previous research, the present study's use of more advanced statistical methods provides a more nuanced understanding of the stability of confidence judgments in the eyewitness reports of children and adults.

Some Characterizations of Convex Interval Games

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brânzei, R.; Tijs, S.H.; Alparslan-Gok, S.Z.

2008-01-01

This paper focuses on new characterizations of convex interval games using the notions of exactness and superadditivity. We also relate big boss interval games with concave interval games and obtain characterizations of big boss interval games in terms of exactness and subadditivity.

Nurses' training and confidence on deep venous catheterization.

Science.gov (United States)

Liachopoulou, A P; Synodinou-Kamilou, E E; Deligiannidi, P G; Giannakopoulou, M; Birbas, K N

2008-01-01

The rough estimation of the education and the self-confidence of nurses, both students and professionals, regarding deep venous catheterization in adult patients, the evaluation of the change in self-confidence of one team of students who were trained with a simulator on deep venous catheterization and the correlation of their self-confidence with their performance recorded by the simulator. Seventy-six nurses and one hundred twenty-four undergraduate students participated in the study. Fourty-four University students took part in a two-day educational seminar and were trained on subclavian and femoral vein paracentesis with a simulator and an anatomical model. Three questionnaires were filled in by the participants: one from nurses, one from students of Technological institutions, while the University students filled in the previous questionnaire before their attendance of the seminar, and another questionnaire after having attended it. Impressive results in improving the participants' self-confidence were recorded. However, the weak correlation of their self-confidence with the score automatically provided by the simulator after each user's training obligates us to be particularly cautious about the ability of the users to repeat the action successfully in a clinical environment. Educational courses and simulators are useful educational tools that are likely to shorten but in no case can efface the early phase of the learning curve in clinical setting, substituting the clinical training of inexperienced users.

Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirjana Čižmešija

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

Science.gov (United States)

Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

2009-01-01

A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

Multivariate interval-censored survival data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hougaard, Philip

2014-01-01

Interval censoring means that an event time is only known to lie in an interval (L,R], with L the last examination time before the event, and R the first after. In the univariate case, parametric models are easily fitted, whereas for non-parametric models, the mass is placed on some intervals, de...

Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

Science.gov (United States)

Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

2012-01-01

Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-Qian Sun

Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

2016-01-01

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

2013-10-23

The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

Science.gov (United States)

De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

2011-01-01

Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

"Depressive Realism" assessed via Confidence in Decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Hancock, J A

1996-08-01

There are two currently influential views regarding the link between cognitive distortions and depression. The first states that depressed individuals perceive the world and themselves with a strong negative bias or distortion, and that mentally healthy individuals perceive the word with relative accuracy. The second ''depressive realism'' camp argues that healthy individuals are positively biased and the depressed are relatively unbiased and hence, more realistic. In the present investigation, subjects suffering from major depression, subjects recovered from major depression, and a group of healthy controls were examined with regard to their confidence in answering each of 99 general knowledge questions. Confidence ratings were analysed separately according to correct or incorrect responses. There were no significant differences in performance (i.e. accuracy of answer between the three groups). When answering correctly, depressed subjects were significantly less confident than healthy control subjects. On answering incorrectly, none of the three groups were significantly different in their confidence ratings. These findings support the cognitive distortion view of depression and provide no evidence of ''depressive realism''.

Challenge for reconstruction of public confidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuura, S.

2001-01-01

Past incidents and scandals that have had a large influence on damaging public confidence in nuclear energy safety are presented. Radiation leak on nuclear-powered ship 'Mutsu' (1974), the T.M.I. incident in 1979, Chernobyl accident (1986), the sodium leak at the Monju reactor (1995), fire and explosion at a low level waste asphalt solidification facility (1997), J.C.O. incident (Tokai- MURA, 1999), are so many examples that have created feelings of distrust and anxiety in society. In order to restore public confidence there is no other course but to be prepared for difficulty and work honestly to our fullest ability, with all steps made openly and accountably. (N.C.)

Graduating general surgery resident operative confidence: perspective from a national survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, Annabelle L; Reddy, Vikram; Longo, Walter E; Gusberg, Richard J

2014-08-01

General surgical training has changed significantly over the last decade with work hour restrictions, increasing subspecialization, the expanding use of minimally invasive techniques, and nonoperative management for solid organ trauma. Given these changes, this study was undertaken to assess the confidence of graduating general surgery residents in performing open surgical operations and to determine factors associated with increased confidence. A survey was developed and sent to general surgery residents nationally. We queried them regarding demographics and program characteristics, asked them to rate their confidence (rated 1-5 on a Likert scale) in performing open surgical procedures and compared those who indicated confidence with those who did not. We received 653 responses from the fifth year (postgraduate year 5) surgical residents: 69% male, 68% from university programs, and 51% from programs affiliated with a Veterans Affairs hospital; 22% from small programs, 34% from medium programs, and 44% from large programs. Anticipated postresidency operative confidence was 72%. More than 25% of residents reported a lack of confidence in performing eight of the 13 operations they were queried about. Training at a university program, a large program, dedicated research years, future fellowship plans, and training at a program that performed a large percentage of operations laparoscopically was associated with decreased confidence in performing a number of open surgical procedures. Increased surgical volume was associated with increased operative confidence. Confidence in performing open surgery also varied regionally. Graduating surgical residents indicated a significant lack of confidence in performing a variety of open surgical procedures. This decreased confidence was associated with age, operative volume as well as type, and location of training program. Analyzing and addressing this confidence deficit merits further study. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All

Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edwin Le Heron

2006-12-01

Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

The Influence of Endogenous and Exogenous Spatial Attention on Decision Confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtz, Phillipp; Shapcott, Katharine A; Kaiser, Jochen; Schmiedt, Joscha T; Schmid, Michael C

2017-07-25

Spatial attention allows us to make more accurate decisions about events in our environment. Decision confidence is thought to be intimately linked to the decision making process as confidence ratings are tightly coupled to decision accuracy. While both spatial attention and decision confidence have been subjected to extensive research, surprisingly little is known about the interaction between these two processes. Since attention increases performance it might be expected that confidence would also increase. However, two studies investigating the effects of endogenous attention on decision confidence found contradictory results. Here we investigated the effects of two distinct forms of spatial attention on decision confidence; endogenous attention and exogenous attention. We used an orientation-matching task, comparing the two attention conditions (endogenous and exogenous) to a control condition without directed attention. Participants performed better under both attention conditions than in the control condition. Higher confidence ratings than the control condition were found under endogenous attention but not under exogenous attention. This finding suggests that while attention can increase confidence ratings, it must be voluntarily deployed for this increase to take place. We discuss possible implications of this relative overconfidence found only during endogenous attention with respect to the theoretical background of decision confidence.

Confidence in Numerical Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hemez, Francois M.

2015-01-01

This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to ''forecast,'' that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists ''think.'' This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. ''Confidence'' derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

A new perspective in the estimation of postmortem interval (PMI) based on vitreous.

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, J I; Suárez-Peñaranda, J M; Otero, X L; Rodríguez-Calvo, M S; Costas, E; Miguéns, X; Concheiro, L

2001-03-01

The relation between the potassium concentration in the vitreous humor, [K+], and the postmortem interval has been studied by several authors. Many formulae are available and they are based on a correlation test and linear regression using the PMI as the independent variable and [K+] as the dependent variable. The estimation of the confidence interval is based on this formulation. However, in forensic work, it is necessary to use [K+] as the independent variable to estimate the PMI. Although all authors have obtained the PMI by direct use of these formulae, it is, nevertheless, an inexact approach, which leads to false estimations. What is required is to change the variables, obtaining a new equation in which [K+] is considered as the independent variable and the PMI as the dependent. The regression line obtained from our data is [K+] = 5.35 + 0.22 PMI, by changing the variables we get PMI = 2.58[K+] - 9.30. When only nonhospital deaths are considered, the results are considerably improved. In this case, we get [K+] = 5.60 + 0.17 PMI and, consequently, PMI = 3.92[K+] - 19.04.

Confidence-Based Progress-Driven Self-Generated Goals for Skill Acquisition in Developmental Robots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hung eNgo

2013-11-01

Full Text Available A reinforcement learning agent that autonomously explores its environment can utilize a curiosity drive to enable continual learning of skills, in the absence of any external rewards. We formulate curiosity-driven exploration, and eventual skill acquisition, as a selective sampling problem. Each environment setting provides the agent with a stream of instances. An instance is a sensory observation that, when queried, causes an outcome that the agent is trying to predict. After an instance is observed, a query condition, derived herein, tells whether its outcome is statistically known or unknown to the agent, based on the confidence interval of an online linear classifier. Upon encountering the first unknown instance, the agent "queries'' the environment to observe the outcome, which is expected to improve its confidence in the corresponding predictor. If the environment is in a setting where all instances are known, the agent generates a plan of actions to reach a new setting, where an unknown instance is likely to be encountered. The desired setting is a self-generated goal, and the plan of action, essentially a program to solve a problem, is a skill. The success of the plan depends on the quality of the agent's predictors, which are improved as mentioned above. For validation, this method is applied to both a simulated and real Katana robot arm in its "blocks-world'' environment. Results show that the proposed method generates sample-efficient curious exploration behavior, which exhibits developmental stages, continual learning, and skill acquisition, in an intrinsically-motivated playful agent.

A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

KAUST Repository

Ma, Shujie; Yang, Lijian; Carroll, Raymond J.

2012-01-01

Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SUTHERLAND, HERBERT J.; VEERS, PAUL S.

1999-01-01

Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S(sub 1)). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results

Nurse leader certification preparation: how are confidence levels impacted?

Science.gov (United States)

Junger, Stacey; Trinkle, Nicole; Hall, Norma

2016-09-01

The aim was to examine the effect of a nurse leader certification preparation course on the confidence levels of the participants. Limited literature is available regarding nurse leader development and certifications. Barriers exist related to lack of confidence, high cost, time and lack of access to a preparation course. Nurse leaders (n = 51) completed a pre- and post-survey addressing confidence levels of participants related to the topics addressed in the nurse leader certification preparation course. There were statistically significant increases in confidence levels related to all course content for the participants. At the time of the study, there were 31.4% of participants intending to sit for the certification examination, and 5 of the 51 participants successfully sat for and passed the examination. A nurse leader certification preparation course increases confidence levels of the participants and removes barriers, thereby increasing the number of certifications obtained. The health-care climate is increasingly complex and nurse leaders need the expertise to navigate the ever-changing health-care environment. Certification in a specialty, such as leadership, serves as an indicator of a high level of competence in the field. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

2014-01-01

Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

Tables of Confidence Limits for Proportions

Science.gov (United States)

1990-09-01

0.972 180 49 0.319 0.332 0,357 175 165 0.964 0.969 0.976 ISO 50 0.325 0.338 0.363 175 166 0.969 0.973 0.980 180 51 0.331 0.344 0.368 175 167 0.973 0.977...0.528 180 18 0.135 0 145 0.164 180 19 0.141 0.151 0.171 ISO 80 0.495 0,508 0.534 347 UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMIT FOR PROPORTIONS CONFIDENCE LEVEL...500 409 0.8401 0.8459 0.8565 500 355 0.7364 0.7434 0.7564 500 356 0.7383 0.7453 0.7582 500 410 0.8420 0.8478 0 8583 500 357 0.7402 0.7472 0.7602 500

Decision time and confidence predict choosers' identification performance in photographic showups

Science.gov (United States)

Sagana, Anna; Sporer, Siegfried L.; Wixted, John T.

2018-01-01

In vast contrast to the multitude of lineup studies that report on the link between decision time, confidence, and identification accuracy, only a few studies looked at these associations for showups, with results varying widely across studies. We therefore set out to test the individual and combined value of decision time and post-decision confidence for diagnosing the accuracy of positive showup decisions using confidence-accuracy characteristic curves and Bayesian analyses. Three-hundred-eighty-four participants viewed a stimulus event and were subsequently presented with two showups which could be target-present or target-absent. As expected, we found a negative decision time-accuracy and a positive post-decision confidence-accuracy correlation for showup selections. Confidence-accuracy characteristic curves demonstrated the expected additive effect of combining both postdictors. Likewise, Bayesian analyses, taking into account all possible target-presence base rate values showed that fast and confident identification decisions were more diagnostic than slow or less confident decisions, with the combination of both being most diagnostic for postdicting accurate and inaccurate decisions. The postdictive value of decision time and post-decision confidence was higher when the prior probability that the suspect is the perpetrator was high compared to when the prior probability that the suspect is the perpetrator was low. The frequent use of showups in practice emphasizes the importance of these findings for court proceedings. Overall, these findings support the idea that courts should have most trust in showup identifications that were made fast and confidently, and least in showup identifications that were made slowly and with low confidence. PMID:29346394

Confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schinkel, Stefan; Marwan, N.; Dimigen, O.; Kurths, J.

2009-01-01

In the recent past, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) has gained an increasing interest in various research areas. The complexity measures the RQA provides have been useful in describing and analysing a broad range of data. It is known to be rather robust to noise and nonstationarities. Yet, one key question in empirical research concerns the confidence bounds of measured data. In the present Letter we suggest a method for estimating the confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures. We study the applicability of the suggested method with model and real-life data.

Confidence building - is science the only approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bragg, K.

1990-01-01

The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) has begun to develop some simplified methods to determine if it is possible to provide confidence that dose, risk and environmental criteria can be respected without undue reliance on detailed scientific models. The progress to date will be outlined and the merits of this new approach will be compared to the more complex, traditional approach. Stress will be given to generating confidence in both technical and non-technical communities as well as the need to enhance communication between them. 3 refs., 1 tab

Effects of atomoxetine on the QT interval in healthy CYP2D6 poor metabolizers

Science.gov (United States)

Loghin, Corina; Haber, Harry; Beasley, Charles M; Kothare, Prajakti A; Kauffman, Lynnette; April, John; Jin, Ling; Allen, Albert J; Mitchell, Malcolm I

2013-01-01

Aim The effects of atomoxetine (20 and 60 mg twice daily), 400 mg moxifloxacin and placebo on QTc in 131 healthy CYP2D6 poor metabolizer males were compared. Methods Atomoxetine doses were selected to result in plasma concentrations that approximated expected plasma concentrations at both the maximum recommended dose and at a supratherapeutic dose in CYP2D6 extensive metabolizers. Ten second electrocardiograms were obtained for time-matched baseline on days −2 and −1, three time points after dosing on day 1 for moxifloxacin and five time points on day 7 for atomoxetine and placebo. Maximum mean placebo-subtracted change from baseline model-corrected QT (QTcM) on day 7 was the primary endpoint. Results QTcM differences for atomoxetine 20 and 60 mg twice daily were 0.5 ms (upper bound of the one-sided 95% confidence interval 2.2 ms) and 4.2 ms (upper bound of the one-sided 95% confidence interval 6.0 ms), respectively. As plasma concentration of atomoxetine increased, a statistically significant increase in QTc was observed. The moxifloxacin difference from placebo met the a priori definition of non-inferiority. Maximum mean placebo-subtracted change from baseline QTcM for moxifloxacin was 4.8 ms and this difference was statistically significant. Moxifloxacin plasma concentrations were below the concentrations expected from the literature. However, the slope of the plasma concentration−QTc change observed was consistent with the literature. Conclusion Atomoxetine was not associated with a clinically significant change in QTc. However, a statistically significant increase in QTc was associated with increasing plasma concentrations. PMID:22803597

Flexible regression models for estimating postmortem interval (PMI) in forensic medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz Barús, José Ignacio; Febrero-Bande, Manuel; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen

2008-10-30

Correct determination of time of death is an important goal in forensic medicine. Numerous methods have been described for estimating postmortem interval (PMI), but most are imprecise, poorly reproducible and/or have not been validated with real data. In recent years, however, some progress in PMI estimation has been made, notably through the use of new biochemical methods for quantifying relevant indicator compounds in the vitreous humour. The best, but unverified, results have been obtained with [K+] and hypoxanthine [Hx], using simple linear regression (LR) models. The main aim of this paper is to offer more flexible alternatives to LR, such as generalized additive models (GAMs) and support vector machines (SVMs) in order to obtain improved PMI estimates. The present study, based on detailed analysis of [K+] and [Hx] in more than 200 vitreous humour samples from subjects with known PMI, compared classical LR methodology with GAM and SVM methodologies. Both proved better than LR for estimation of PMI. SVM showed somewhat greater precision than GAM, but GAM offers a readily interpretable graphical output, facilitating understanding of findings by legal professionals; there are thus arguments for using both types of models. R code for these methods is available from the authors, permitting accurate prediction of PMI from vitreous humour [K+], [Hx] and [U], with confidence intervals and graphical output provided. Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

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Yu Xueping

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)

2012-01-01

textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this

Lack of an Effect of Standard and Supratherapeutic Doses of Linezolid on QTc Interval Prolongation▿†

Science.gov (United States)

Damle, Bharat; LaBadie, Robert R.; Cuozzo, Cheryl; Alvey, Christine; Choo, Heng Wee; Riley, Steve; Kirby, Deborah

2011-01-01

A double-blind, placebo-controlled, four-way crossover study was conducted in 40 subjects to assess the effect of linezolid on corrected QT (QTc) interval prolongation. Time-matched, placebo-corrected QT intervals were determined predose and at 0.5, 1 (end of infusion), 2, 4, 8, 12, and 24 h after intravenous dosing of linezolid 600 and 1,200 mg. Oral moxifloxacin at 400 mg was used as an active control. The pharmacokinetic profile of linezolid was also evaluated. At each time point, the upper bound of the 90% confidence interval (CI) for placebo-corrected QTcF values (i.e., QTc values adjusted for ventricular rate using the correction methods of Fridericia) for linezolid 600 and 1,200-mg doses were 5 ms, indicating that the study was adequately sensitive to assess QTc prolongation. The pharmacokinetic profile of linezolid at 600 mg was consistent with previous observations. Systemic exposure to linezolid increased in a slightly more than dose-proportional manner at supratherapeutic doses, but the degree of nonlinearity was small. At a supratherapeutic single dose of 1,200 mg of linezolid, no treatment-related increase in adverse events was seen compared to 600 mg of linezolid, and no clinically meaningful effects on vital signs and safety laboratory evaluations were noted. PMID:21709083

The influence of endogenous and exogenous spatial attention on decision confidence

OpenAIRE

Kurtz, Phillipp; Shapcott, Katharine A.; Kaiser , Jochen; Schmiedt, Joscha T.; Schmid, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Spatial attention allows us to make more accurate decisions about events in our environment. Decision confidence is thought to be intimately linked to the decision making process as confidence ratings are tightly coupled to decision accuracy. While both spatial attention and decision confidence have been subjected to extensive research, surprisingly little is known about the interaction between these two processes. Since attention increases performance it might be expected that confidence wou...

Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

2013-01-01

Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.

Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

Confidence, Visual Research, and the Aesthetic Function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stan Ruecker

2007-05-01

Full Text Available The goal of this article is to identify and describe one of the primary purposes of aesthetic quality in the design of computer interfaces and visualization tools. We suggest that humanists can derive advantages in visual research by acknowledging by their efforts to advance aesthetic quality that a significant function of aesthetics in this context is to inspire the user’s confidence. This confidence typically serves to create a sense of trust in the provider of the interface or tool. In turn, this increased trust may result in an increased willingness to engage with the object, on the basis that it demonstrates an attention to detail that promises to reward increased engagement. In addition to confidence, the aesthetic may also contribute to a heightened degree of satisfaction with having spent time using or investigating the object. In the realm of interface design and visualization research, we propose that these aesthetic functions have implications not only for the quality of interactions, but also for the results of the standard measures of performance and preference.

The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and Identification Accuracy: A New Synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wixted, John T; Wells, Gary L

2017-05-01

The U.S. legal system increasingly accepts the idea that the confidence expressed by an eyewitness who identified a suspect from a lineup provides little information as to the accuracy of that identification. There was a time when this pessimistic assessment was entirely reasonable because of the questionable eyewitness-identification procedures that police commonly employed. However, after more than 30 years of eyewitness-identification research, our understanding of how to properly conduct a lineup has evolved considerably, and the time seems ripe to ask how eyewitness confidence informs accuracy under more pristine testing conditions (e.g., initial, uncontaminated memory tests using fair lineups, with no lineup administrator influence, and with an immediate confidence statement). Under those conditions, mock-crime studies and police department field studies have consistently shown that, for adults, (a) confidence and accuracy are strongly related and (b) high-confidence suspect identifications are remarkably accurate. However, when certain non-pristine testing conditions prevail (e.g., when unfair lineups are used), the accuracy of even a high-confidence suspect ID is seriously compromised. Unfortunately, some jurisdictions have not yet made reforms that would create pristine testing conditions and, hence, our conclusions about the reliability of high-confidence identifications cannot yet be applied to those jurisdictions. However, understanding the information value of eyewitness confidence under pristine testing conditions can help the criminal justice system to simultaneously achieve both of its main objectives: to exonerate the innocent (by better appreciating that initial, low-confidence suspect identifications are error prone) and to convict the guilty (by better appreciating that initial, high-confidence suspect identifications are surprisingly accurate under proper testing conditions).

Experiential Education Builds Student Self-Confidence in Delivering Medication Therapy Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wendy M. Parker

2017-07-01

Full Text Available To determine the impact of advanced pharmacy practice experiences (APPE on student self-confidence related to medication therapy management (MTM, fourth-year pharmacy students were surveyed pre/post APPE to: identify exposure to MTM learning opportunities, assess knowledge of the MTM core components, and assess self-confidence performing MTM services. An anonymous electronic questionnaire administered pre/post APPE captured demographics, factors predicted to impact student self-confidence (Grade point average (GPA, work experience, exposure to MTM learning opportunities, MTM knowledge and self-confidence conducting MTM using a 5-point Likert scale (1 = Not at all Confident; 5 = Extremely Confident. Sixty-two students (26% response rate responded to the pre-APPE questionnaire and n = 44 (18% to the post-APPE. Over 90% demonstrated MTM knowledge and 68.2% completed MTM learning activities. APPE experiences significantly improved students’ overall self-confidence (pre-APPE = 3.27 (0.85 SD, post-APPE = 4.02 (0.88, p < 0.001. Students engaging in MTM learning opportunities had higher self-confidence post-APPE (4.20 (0.71 vs. those not reporting MTM learning opportunities (3.64 (1.08, p = 0.05. Post-APPE, fewer students reported MTM was patient-centric or anticipated engaging in MTM post-graduation. APPE learning opportunities increased student self-confidence to provide MTM services. However, the reduction in anticipated engagement in MTM post-graduation and reduction in sensing the patient-centric nature of MTM practice, may reveal a gap between practice expectations and reality.

Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Broten, G S; Wood, H C [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

1996-12-31

This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network`s ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor`s response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broten, G.S.; Wood, H.C.

1995-01-01

This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network's ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor's response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

Probability intervals for the top event unavailability of fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Y.T.; Apostolakis, G.E.

1976-06-01

The evaluation of probabilities of rare events is of major importance in the quantitative assessment of the risk from large technological systems. In particular, for nuclear power plants the complexity of the systems, their high reliability and the lack of significant statistical records have led to the extensive use of logic diagrams in the estimation of low probabilities. The estimation of probability intervals for the probability of existence of the top event of a fault tree is examined. Given the uncertainties of the primary input data, a method is described for the evaluation of the first four moments of the top event occurrence probability. These moments are then used to estimate confidence bounds by several approaches which are based on standard inequalities (e.g., Tchebycheff, Cantelli, etc.) or on empirical distributions (the Johnson family). Several examples indicate that the Johnson family of distributions yields results which are in good agreement with those produced by Monte Carlo simulation

Birth interval and stunting in children under five years of age in Peru (1996-2014).

Science.gov (United States)

Sobrino, M; Gutiérrez, C; Alarcón, J; Dávila, M; Cunha, A J

2017-01-01

Examine the evolution of stunting in birth interval (BI), and associated factors from 1996 to 2014. Data were extracted from the National Demographic and Health Survey of Peru (DHS) for the years 1996, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2014 on children birth (≤24 months vs. >24 months) and others sociodemographic variables. Crude and adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were estimated in logistic regression for the effect of BI and other variables on stunting by each survey year. Between 1996 and 2014, stunting declined in both BI groups: ≤24 months: 35.8% to 21.8%; >24 months: 29.5% to 14.3%. BI was associated with stunting after adjustment for other variables in each survey except 2005. Of the other factors, sex, birth order (fourth child or more), maternal education and poverty were independently associated with stunting in all survey years. Residence in rural areas and in Amazon forest and highland regions was associated with stunting 1996 and 2000. Maternal age was not independently associated with stunting. While stunting showed a decreasing trend from 1996 to 2014, birth interval exceeding 24 months exerted a protective effect on stunting across the years surveyed. Poverty, low maternal education and high birth order were associated with stunting in all survey years. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reviewing interval cancers: Time well spent?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gower-Thomas, Kate; Fielder, Hilary M.P.; Branston, Lucy; Greening, Sarah; Beer, Helen; Rogers, Cerilan

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To categorize interval cancers, and thus identify false-negatives, following prevalent and incident screens in the Welsh breast screening programme. SETTING: Breast Test Wales (BTW) Llandudno, Cardiff and Swansea breast screening units. METHODS: Five hundred and sixty interval breast cancers identified following negative mammographic screening between 1989 and 1997 were reviewed by eight screening radiologists. The blind review was achieved by mixing the screening films of women who subsequently developed an interval cancer with screen negative films of women who did not develop cancer, in a ratio of 4:1. Another radiologist used patients' symptomatic films to record a reference against which the reviewers' reports of the screening films were compared. Interval cancers were categorized as 'true', 'occult', 'false-negative' or 'unclassified' interval cancers or interval cancers with minimal signs, based on the National Health Service breast screening programme (NHSBSP) guidelines. RESULTS: Of the classifiable interval films, 32% were false-negatives, 55% were true intervals and 12% occult. The proportion of false-negatives following incident screens was half that following prevalent screens (P = 0.004). Forty percent of the seed films were recalled by the panel. CONCLUSIONS: Low false-negative interval cancer rates following incident screens (18%) versus prevalent screens (36%) suggest that lower cancer detection rates at incident screens may have resulted from fewer cancers than expected being present, rather than from a failure to detect tumours. The panel method for categorizing interval cancers has significant flaws as the results vary markedly with different protocol and is no more accurate than other, quicker and more timely methods. Gower-Thomas, K. et al. (2002)

The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florent Meyniel

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2017-05-09

Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning

Science.gov (United States)

Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2017-01-01

Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This “confidence weighting” implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain’s learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences. PMID:28439014

Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-09-01

The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.

2004-01-01

Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor

Thought confidence as a determinant of persuasion: the self-validation hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Petty, Richard E; Briñol, Pablo; Tormala, Zakary L

2002-05-01

Previous research in the domain of attitude change has described 2 primary dimensions of thinking that impact persuasion processes and outcomes: the extent (amount) of thinking and the direction (valence) of issue-relevant thought. The authors examined the possibility that another, more meta-cognitive aspect of thinking is also important-the degree of confidence people have in their own thoughts. Four studies test the notion that thought confidence affects the extent of persuasion. When positive thoughts dominate in response to a message, increasing confidence in those thoughts increases persuasion, but when negative thoughts dominate, increasing confidence decreases persuasion. In addition, using self-reported and manipulated thought confidence in separate studies, the authors provide evidence that the magnitude of the attitude-thought relationship depends on the confidence people have in their thoughts. Finally, the authors also show that these self-validation effects are most likely in situations that foster high amounts of information processing activity.

True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

Science.gov (United States)

Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

2015-01-01

Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

The influence of 2 weeks of low-volume high-intensity interval training on health outcomes in adolescent boys.

Science.gov (United States)

Barker, Alan R; Day, Josephine; Smith, Aaron; Bond, Bert; Williams, Craig A

2014-01-01

The present study aimed to establish whether 2 weeks of high-intensity interval training would have a beneficial effect on aerobic fitness, fat oxidation, blood pressure and body mass index (BMI) in healthy adolescent boys. Ten adolescent boys (15.1 ± 0.3 years, 1.3 ± 0.2 years post-estimated peak height velocity) completed six sessions of Wingate-style high-intensity interval training over a 2-week period. The first session consisted of four sprints with training progressed to seven sprints in the final session. High-intensity interval training had a beneficial effect on maximal O2 uptake (mean change, ±90% confidence intervals: 0.19 L · min(-1), ±0.19, respectively), on the O2 uptake at the gas exchange threshold (0.09 L · min(-1), ±0.13) and on the O2 cost of sub-maximal exercise (-0.04 L · min(-1), ±0.04). A beneficial effect on the contribution of lipid (0.06 g · min(-1), ±0.06) and carbohydrate (-0.23 g · min(-1), ±0.14) oxidation was observed during sub-maximal exercise, but not for the maximal rate of fat oxidation (0.04 g · min(-1), ±0.08). Systolic blood pressure (1 mmHg, ±4) and BMI (0.1 kg · m2, ±0.1) were not altered following training. These data demonstrate that meaningful changes in health outcomes are possible in healthy adolescent boys after just six sessions of high-intensity interval training over a 2-week period.

Tumor phenotype and breast density in distinct categories of interval cancer: results of population-based mammography screening in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Domingo, Laia; Salas, Dolores; Zubizarreta, Raquel; Baré, Marisa; Sarriugarte, Garbiñe; Barata, Teresa; Ibáñez, Josefa; Blanch, Jordi; Puig-Vives, Montserrat; Fernández, Ana; Castells, Xavier; Sala, Maria

2014-01-10

Interval cancers are tumors arising after a negative screening episode and before the next screening invitation. They can be classified into true interval cancers, false-negatives, minimal-sign cancers, and occult tumors based on mammographic findings in screening and diagnostic mammograms. This study aimed to describe tumor-related characteristics and the association of breast density and tumor phenotype within four interval cancer categories. We included 2,245 invasive tumors (1,297 screening-detected and 948 interval cancers) diagnosed from 2000 to 2009 among 645,764 women aged 45 to 69 who underwent biennial screening in Spain. Interval cancers were classified by a semi-informed retrospective review into true interval cancers (n = 455), false-negatives (n = 224), minimal-sign (n = 166), and occult tumors (n = 103). Breast density was evaluated using Boyd's scale and was conflated into: 75%. Tumor-related information was obtained from cancer registries and clinical records. Tumor phenotype was defined as follows: luminal A: ER+/HER2- or PR+/HER2-; luminal B: ER+/HER2+ or PR+/HER2+; HER2: ER-/PR-/HER2+; triple-negative: ER-/PR-/HER2-. The association of tumor phenotype and breast density was assessed using a multinomial logistic regression model. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Forty-eight percent of interval cancers were true interval cancers and 23.6% false-negatives. True interval cancers were associated with HER2 and triple-negative phenotypes (OR = 1.91 (95% CI:1.22-2.96), OR = 2.07 (95% CI:1.42-3.01), respectively) and extremely dense breasts (>75%) (OR = 1.67 (95% CI:1.08-2.56)). However, among true interval cancers a higher proportion of triple-negative tumors was observed in predominantly fatty breasts (breasts (28.7%, 21.4%, 11.3% and 14.3%, respectively; cancers, extreme breast density being strongly associated with occult tumors (OR�

CLSI-based transference and verification of CALIPER pediatric reference intervals for 29 Ortho VITROS 5600 chemistry assays.

Science.gov (United States)

Higgins, Victoria; Truong, Dorothy; Woroch, Amy; Chan, Man Khun; Tahmasebi, Houman; Adeli, Khosrow

2018-03-01

Evidence-based reference intervals (RIs) are essential to accurately interpret pediatric laboratory test results. To fill gaps in pediatric RIs, the Canadian Laboratory Initiative on Pediatric Reference Intervals (CALIPER) project developed an age- and sex-specific pediatric RI database based on healthy pediatric subjects. Originally established for Abbott ARCHITECT assays, CALIPER RIs were transferred to assays on Beckman, Roche, Siemens, and Ortho analytical platforms. This study provides transferred reference intervals for 29 biochemical assays for the Ortho VITROS 5600 Chemistry System (Ortho). Based on Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) guidelines, a method comparison analysis was performed by measuring approximately 200 patient serum samples using Abbott and Ortho assays. The equation of the line of best fit was calculated and the appropriateness of the linear model was assessed. This equation was used to transfer RIs from Abbott to Ortho assays. Transferred RIs were verified using 84 healthy pediatric serum samples from the CALIPER cohort. RIs for most chemistry analytes successfully transferred from Abbott to Ortho assays. Calcium and CO 2 did not meet statistical criteria for transference (r 2 reference intervals, 29 successfully verified with approximately 90% of results from reference samples falling within transferred confidence limits. Transferred RIs for total bilirubin, magnesium, and LDH did not meet verification criteria and are not reported. This study broadens the utility of the CALIPER pediatric RI database to laboratories using Ortho VITROS 5600 biochemical assays. Clinical laboratories should verify CALIPER reference intervals for their specific analytical platform and local population as recommended by CLSI. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corden, P.S.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a few thoughts on the question of building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia, in particular in the area centred on the Korean peninsula. This question includes the process of establishing and implementing confidence- and security-building measures, some of which might involve States other than North and South Korea. The development of CSBMs has now been well established in Europe, and there are encouraging signs that such measures are taking hold in other areas of the world, including in Korea. Consequently there is a fairly rich mine of information, precedent and experience from which to draw in focusing on the particular subject at hand. In these remarks the concept of confidence- and security-building is briefly addressed and measures are examined that have proven useful in other circumstances and review some possibilities that appear of interest in the present context

Optimizing lengths of confidence intervals: fourth-order efficiency in location models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klaassen, C.; Venetiaan, S.

2010-01-01

Under regularity conditions the maximum likelihood estimator of the location parameter in a location model is asymptotically efficient among translation equivariant estimators. Additional regularity conditions warrant third- and even fourth-order efficiency, in the sense that no translation

Statistical Significance, Effect Size Reporting, and Confidence Intervals: Best Reporting Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Capraro, Robert M.

2004-01-01

With great interest the author read the May 2002 editorial in the "Journal for Research in Mathematics Education (JRME)" (King, 2002) regarding changes to the 5th edition of the "Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association" (APA, 2001). Of special note to him, and of great import to the field of mathematics education research, are…

QT Interval Prolongation Associated with Intramuscular Ziprasidone in Chinese Patients: A Case Report and a Comprehensive Literature Review with Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xian-Bin Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Intramuscular (IM ziprasidone has been associated with QTc interval prolongations in patients with preexisting risk factors. A 23-year-old male Chinese schizophrenia patient experienced an increase of QTc interval of 83 milliseconds (ms after receiving 20 mg IM ziprasidone (baseline and increased QT/QTc were, respectively, 384/418 and 450/501. This was rated as a probable adverse drug reaction (ADR by the Liverpool ADR causality assessment tool. A systematic review including all types of trials reporting the effect of IM ziprasidone on the QTc interval prolongation identified 19 trials with a total of 1428 patients. Mean QTc change from baseline to end of each study was −3.7 to 12.8 ms after IM ziprasidone. Four randomized trials (3 of 4 published in Chinese were used to calculate a meta-analysis of QTc interval prolongation which showed no significant differences between IM ziprasidone and IM haloperidol groups (risk ratio 0.49 to 4.31, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 19.68, P = 0.06 to 0.41. However, our review included two cases of patients who experienced symptoms probably related to QTc prolongation after IM ziprasidone. Thus, careful screening and close monitoring, including baseline ECG, should be considered in patients receiving IM ziprasidone for the first time.

SOCIAL MEDIA – VITAL INSTRUMENT IN GAINING CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirela-Cristina VOICU

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Given that, currently, the consumer has become more demanding and organizations face some of the greatest challenges due to the economic climate of recent years, the need to build and cultivate strong relationships has become vital not only for the company's success but also for its survival. And solid relationships are built over time through confidence. Trust is one of the most important elements in the process of purchasing and consumer loyalty; it is difficult to obtain but easy to lose. Companies that are enjoying a high degree of confidence benefit from best quotations for their shares, higher profits and a better retention of the best employees. The effects of the lack of confidence are obvious (unsatisfied consumers, lost sales and very expensive for the company. In this context, through the following paper we seek to bring more understanding on how a company can gain the confidence of consumers given that the forms of communication that consumers prefer and that are gaining momentum currently, are taking place online, especially in the social media.

Workshop on confidence limits. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James, F.; Lyons, L.; Perrin, Y.

2000-01-01

The First Workshop on Confidence Limits was held at CERN on 17-18 January 2000. It was devoted to the problem of setting confidence limits in difficult cases: number of observed events is small or zero, background is larger than signal, background not well known, and measurements near a physical boundary. Among the many examples in high-energy physics are searches for the Higgs, searches for neutrino oscillations, B s mixing, SUSY, compositeness, neutrino masses, and dark matter. Several different methods are on the market: the CL s methods used by the LEP Higgs searches; Bayesian methods; Feldman-Cousins and modifications thereof; empirical and combined methods. The Workshop generated considerable interest, and attendance was finally limited by the seating capacity of the CERN Council Chamber where all the sessions took place. These proceedings contain all the papers presented, as well as the full text of the discussions after each paper and of course the last session which was a discussion session. The list of participants and the 'required reading', which was expected to be part of the prior knowledge of all participants, are also included. (orig.)

Point and interval estimation of pollinator importance: a study using pollination data of Silene caroliniana.

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, Richard J; Fenster, Charles B

2008-05-01

Pollinator importance, the product of visitation rate and pollinator effectiveness, is a descriptive parameter of the ecology and evolution of plant-pollinator interactions. Naturally, sources of its variation should be investigated, but the SE of pollinator importance has never been properly reported. Here, a Monte Carlo simulation study and a result from mathematical statistics on the variance of the product of two random variables are used to estimate the mean and confidence limits of pollinator importance for three visitor species of the wildflower, Silene caroliniana. Both methods provided similar estimates of mean pollinator importance and its interval if the sample size of the visitation and effectiveness datasets were comparatively large. These approaches allowed us to determine that bumblebee importance was significantly greater than clearwing hawkmoth, which was significantly greater than beefly. The methods could be used to statistically quantify temporal and spatial variation in pollinator importance of particular visitor species. The approaches may be extended for estimating the variance of more than two random variables. However, unless the distribution function of the resulting statistic is known, the simulation approach is preferable for calculating the parameter's confidence limits.

How to regress and predict in a Bland-Altman plot? Review and contribution based on tolerance intervals and correlated-errors-in-variables models.

Science.gov (United States)

Francq, Bernard G; Govaerts, Bernadette

2016-06-30

Two main methodologies for assessing equivalence in method-comparison studies are presented separately in the literature. The first one is the well-known and widely applied Bland-Altman approach with its agreement intervals, where two methods are considered interchangeable if their differences are not clinically significant. The second approach is based on errors-in-variables regression in a classical (X,Y) plot and focuses on confidence intervals, whereby two methods are considered equivalent when providing similar measures notwithstanding the random measurement errors. This paper reconciles these two methodologies and shows their similarities and differences using both real data and simulations. A new consistent correlated-errors-in-variables regression is introduced as the errors are shown to be correlated in the Bland-Altman plot. Indeed, the coverage probabilities collapse and the biases soar when this correlation is ignored. Novel tolerance intervals are compared with agreement intervals with or without replicated data, and novel predictive intervals are introduced to predict a single measure in an (X,Y) plot or in a Bland-Atman plot with excellent coverage probabilities. We conclude that the (correlated)-errors-in-variables regressions should not be avoided in method comparison studies, although the Bland-Altman approach is usually applied to avert their complexity. We argue that tolerance or predictive intervals are better alternatives than agreement intervals, and we provide guidelines for practitioners regarding method comparison studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

S. Kuzio

2004-01-01

Fracture spacing is a key hydrologic parameter in analyses of matrix diffusion. Although the individual fractures that transmit flow in the saturated zone (SZ) cannot be identified directly, it is possible to determine the fractured zones that transmit flow from flow meter survey observations. The fractured zones that transmit flow as identified through borehole flow meter surveys have been defined in this report as flowing intervals. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. The determination of flowing interval spacing is important because the flowing interval spacing parameter is a key hydrologic parameter in SZ transport modeling, which impacts the extent of matrix diffusion in the SZ volcanic matrix. The output of this report is input to the ''Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Abstraction'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170042]). Specifically, the analysis of data and development of a data distribution reported herein is used to develop the uncertainty distribution for the flowing interval spacing parameter for the SZ transport abstraction model. Figure 1-1 shows the relationship of this report to other model reports that also pertain to flow and transport in the SZ. Figure 1-1 also shows the flow of key information among the SZ reports. It should be noted that Figure 1-1 does not contain a complete representation of the data and parameter inputs and outputs of all SZ reports, nor does it show inputs external to this suite of SZ reports. Use of the developed flowing interval spacing probability distribution is subject to the limitations of the assumptions discussed in Sections 5 and 6 of this analysis report. The number of fractures in a flowing interval is not known. Therefore, the flowing intervals are assumed to be composed of one flowing zone in the transport simulations. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be

The Impact of Computing Interpregnancy Intervals Without Accounting for Intervening Pregnancy Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Conzuelo-Rodriguez, Gabriel; Naimi, Ashley I

2018-03-01

Short interpregnancy intervals (IPI) are associated with poor birth outcomes. Often, only livebirths are considered to estimate IPI. The objective of our work is to explore whether the associations between demographic, behavioural, and pregnancy variables and IPI change when events other than livebirth are included. We used data from the 2006-10 and 2011-13 period of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). We defined IPI using the conception date of the index pregnancy and the event date of the previous one ending in (i) livebirth; (ii) stillbirth; (iii) miscarriage; (iv) abortion; or (v) any of these events. Risk ratios (RR) were estimated for short IPI (definition, especially for unintended versus intended pregnancies (only livebirth risk ratio [RR] 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2, 1.5) versus livebirth and miscarriage RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.0, 1.3) and women older than 30 vs. younger than 20 at resolution of the previous pregnancy (only livebirth RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.0, 1.5 versus livebirth and miscarriage RR 1.36, 95% CI 1.2, 1.6). Including miscarriage as an intervening event in the calculation of IPI changes the association between several risk factors and short IPI. However, the association between short IPI and preterm birth does not vary when different IPI calculations are used. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Profiling of RNA degradation for estimation of post mortem [corrected] interval.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernanda Sampaio-Silva

Full Text Available An estimation of the post mortem interval (PMI is frequently touted as the Holy Grail of forensic pathology. During the first hours after death, PMI estimation is dependent on the rate of physical observable modifications including algor, rigor and livor mortis. However, these assessment methods are still largely unreliable and inaccurate. Alternatively, RNA has been put forward as a valuable tool in forensic pathology, namely to identify body fluids, estimate the age of biological stains and to study the mechanism of death. Nevertheless, the attempts to find correlation between RNA degradation and PMI have been unsuccessful. The aim of this study was to characterize the RNA degradation in different post mortem tissues in order to develop a mathematical model that can be used as coadjuvant method for a more accurate PMI determination. For this purpose, we performed an eleven-hour kinetic analysis of total extracted RNA from murine's visceral and muscle tissues. The degradation profile of total RNA and the expression levels of several reference genes were analyzed by quantitative real-time PCR. A quantitative analysis of normalized transcript levels on the former tissues allowed the identification of four quadriceps muscle genes (Actb, Gapdh, Ppia and Srp72 that were found to significantly correlate with PMI. These results allowed us to develop a mathematical model with predictive value for estimation of the PMI (confidence interval of ±51 minutes at 95% that can become an important complementary tool for traditional methods.

Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

Science.gov (United States)

Steve P. Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

2007-01-01

For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations. To develop these confidence bounds and test, we first establish that estimators based on Newton steps from n-...

Perceptual learning effect on decision and confidence thresholds.

Science.gov (United States)

Solovey, Guillermo; Shalom, Diego; Pérez-Schuster, Verónica; Sigman, Mariano

2016-10-01

Practice can enhance of perceptual sensitivity, a well-known phenomenon called perceptual learning. However, the effect of practice on subjective perception has received little attention. We approach this problem from a visual psychophysics and computational modeling perspective. In a sequence of visual search experiments, subjects significantly increased the ability to detect a "trained target". Before and after training, subjects performed two psychophysical protocols that parametrically vary the visibility of the "trained target": an attentional blink and a visual masking task. We found that confidence increased after learning only in the attentional blink task. Despite large differences in some observables and task settings, we identify common mechanisms for decision-making and confidence. Specifically, our behavioral results and computational model suggest that perceptual ability is independent of processing time, indicating that changes in early cortical representations are effective, and learning changes decision criteria to convey choice and confidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acute high-intensity interval running increases markers of gastrointestinal damage and permeability but not gastrointestinal symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Pugh, Jamie N; Impey, Samuel G; Doran, Dominic A; Fleming, Simon C; Morton, James P; Close, Graeme L

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of high-intensity interval running on markers of gastrointestinal (GI) damage and permeability alongside subjective symptoms of GI discomfort. Eleven male runners completed an acute bout of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) (eighteen 400-m runs at 120% maximal oxygen uptake) where markers of GI permeability, intestinal damage, and GI discomfort symptoms were assessed and compared with resting conditions. Compared with rest, HIIT significantly increased serum lactulose/rhamnose ratio (0.051 ± 0.016 vs. 0.031 ± 0.021, p = 0.0047; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.006 to 0.036) and sucrose concentrations (0.388 ± 0.217 vs. 0.137 ± 0.148 mg·L -1 ; p HIIT and resting conditions. Plasma intestinal-fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP) was significantly increased (p HIIT whereas no changes were observed during rest. Mild symptoms of GI discomfort were reported immediately and at 24 h post-HIIT, although these symptoms did not correlate to GI permeability or I-FABP. In conclusion, acute HIIT increased GI permeability and intestinal I-FABP release, although these do not correlate with symptoms of GI discomfort. Furthermore, by using serum sampling, we provide data showing that it is possible to detect changes in intestinal permeability that is not observed using urinary sampling over a shorter time-period.

Summary of the activities of the ISAM Confidence Building Working Group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dolinar, G.M.; Batandjieva, B.

2002-01-01

During the early stages of the ISAM project confidence building was a relatively new topic in the radioactive waste disposal literature, but it was beginning to receive some attention. Although almost all safety assessment activities are intended to provide a level of confidence in the results of the assessment, considering the activities from the viewpoint of how they contributed to the decision making of various 'audiences' was relatively new. The ISAM project included the Confidence Building Working Group (CBWG) to examine the topic of Confidence Building and this paper provides a summary of the working group findings. (author)

Geometric Least Square Models for Deriving [0,1]-Valued Interval Weights from Interval Fuzzy Preference Relations Based on Multiplicative Transitivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuan Yang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a geometric least square framework for deriving [0,1]-valued interval weights from interval fuzzy preference relations. By analyzing the relationship among [0,1]-valued interval weights, multiplicatively consistent interval judgments, and planes, a geometric least square model is developed to derive a normalized [0,1]-valued interval weight vector from an interval fuzzy preference relation. Based on the difference ratio between two interval fuzzy preference relations, a geometric average difference ratio between one interval fuzzy preference relation and the others is defined and employed to determine the relative importance weights for individual interval fuzzy preference relations. A geometric least square based approach is further put forward for solving group decision making problems. An individual decision numerical example and a group decision making problem with the selection of enterprise resource planning software products are furnished to illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed models.

Delay-Dependent Guaranteed Cost Control of an Interval System with Interval Time-Varying Delay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao Min

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper concerns the problem of the delay-dependent robust stability and guaranteed cost control for an interval system with time-varying delay. The interval system with matrix factorization is provided and leads to less conservative conclusions than solving a square root. The time-varying delay is assumed to belong to an interval and the derivative of the interval time-varying delay is not a restriction, which allows a fast time-varying delay; also its applicability is broad. Based on the Lyapunov-Ktasovskii approach, a delay-dependent criterion for the existence of a state feedback controller, which guarantees the closed-loop system stability, the upper bound of cost function, and disturbance attenuation lever for all admissible uncertainties as well as out perturbation, is proposed in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. The criterion is derived by free weighting matrices that can reduce the conservatism. The effectiveness has been verified in a number example and the compute results are presented to validate the proposed design method.

Kangaroo Care Education Effects on Nurses' Knowledge and Skills Confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Almutairi, Wedad Matar; Ludington-Hoe, Susan M

2016-11-01

Less than 20% of the 996 NICUs in the United States routinely practice kangaroo care, due in part to the inadequate knowledge and skills confidence of nurses. Continuing education improves knowledge and skills acquisition, but the effects of a kangaroo care certification course on nurses' knowledge and skills confidence are unknown. A pretest-posttest quasi-experiment was conducted. The Kangaroo Care Knowledge and Skills Confidence Tool was administered to 68 RNs at a 2.5-day course about kangaroo care evidence and skills. Measures of central tendency, dispersion, and paired t tests were conducted on 57 questionnaires. The nurses' characteristics were varied. The mean posttest Knowledge score (M = 88.54, SD = 6.13) was significantly higher than the pretest score (M = 78.7, SD = 8.30), t [54] = -9.1, p = .000), as was the posttest Skills Confidence score (pretest M = 32.06, SD = 3.49; posttest M = 26.80, SD = 5.22), t [53] = -8.459, p = .000). The nurses' knowledge and skills confidence of kangaroo care improved following continuing education, suggesting a need for continuing education in this area. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2016;47(11):518-524. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Interval MULTIMOORA method with target values of attributes based on interval distance and preference degree: biomaterials selection

Science.gov (United States)

Hafezalkotob, Arian; Hafezalkotob, Ashkan

2017-06-01

A target-based MADM method covers beneficial and non-beneficial attributes besides target values for some attributes. Such techniques are considered as the comprehensive forms of MADM approaches. Target-based MADM methods can also be used in traditional decision-making problems in which beneficial and non-beneficial attributes only exist. In many practical selection problems, some attributes have given target values. The values of decision matrix and target-based attributes can be provided as intervals in some of such problems. Some target-based decision-making methods have recently been developed; however, a research gap exists in the area of MADM techniques with target-based attributes under uncertainty of information. We extend the MULTIMOORA method for solving practical material selection problems in which material properties and their target values are given as interval numbers. We employ various concepts of interval computations to reduce degeneration of uncertain data. In this regard, we use interval arithmetic and introduce innovative formula for interval distance of interval numbers to create interval target-based normalization technique. Furthermore, we use a pairwise preference matrix based on the concept of degree of preference of interval numbers to calculate the maximum, minimum, and ranking of these numbers. Two decision-making problems regarding biomaterials selection of hip and knee prostheses are discussed. Preference degree-based ranking lists for subordinate parts of the extended MULTIMOORA method are generated by calculating the relative degrees of preference for the arranged assessment values of the biomaterials. The resultant rankings for the problem are compared with the outcomes of other target-based models in the literature.

Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

2008-10-01

Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce. Copyright 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Recurrence interval analysis of trading volumes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2010-06-01

We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals τ between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold q. The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2009. Similar to the recurrence interval distribution of the price returns, the tail of the recurrence interval distribution of the trading volumes follows a power-law scaling, and the results are verified by the goodness-of-fit tests using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic, the weighted KS statistic and the Cramér-von Mises criterion. The measurements of the conditional probability distribution and the detrended fluctuation function show that both short-term and long-term memory effects exist in the recurrence intervals between trading volumes. We further study the relationship between trading volumes and price returns based on the recurrence interval analysis method. It is found that large trading volumes are more likely to occur following large price returns, and the comovement between trading volumes and price returns is more pronounced for large trading volumes.

Expressing Intervals in Automated Service Negotiation

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Kassidy P.; Warnier, Martijn; van Splunter, Sander; Brazier, Frances M. T.

During automated negotiation of services between autonomous agents, utility functions are used to evaluate the terms of negotiation. These terms often include intervals of values which are prone to misinterpretation. It is often unclear if an interval embodies a continuum of real numbers or a subset of natural numbers. Furthermore, it is often unclear if an agent is expected to choose only one value, multiple values, a sub-interval or even multiple sub-intervals. Additional semantics are needed to clarify these issues. Normally, these semantics are stored in a domain ontology. However, ontologies are typically domain specific and static in nature. For dynamic environments, in which autonomous agents negotiate resources whose attributes and relationships change rapidly, semantics should be made explicit in the service negotiation. This paper identifies issues that are prone to misinterpretation and proposes a notation for expressing intervals. This notation is illustrated using an example in WS-Agreement.

A scoping review of the psychological responses to interval exercise: is interval exercise a viable alternative to traditional exercise?

Science.gov (United States)

Stork, Matthew J; Banfield, Laura E; Gibala, Martin J; Martin Ginis, Kathleen A

2017-12-01

While considerable evidence suggests that interval exercise confers numerous physiological adaptations linked to improved health, its psychological consequences and behavioural implications are less clear and the subject of intense debate. The purpose of this scoping review was to catalogue studies investigating the psychological responses to interval exercise in order to identify what psychological outcomes have been assessed, the research methods used, and the results. A secondary objective was to identify research issues and gaps. Forty-two published articles met the review inclusion/exclusion criteria. These studies involved 1258 participants drawn from various active/inactive and healthy/unhealthy populations, and 55 interval exercise protocols (69% high-intensity interval training [HIIT], 27% sprint interval training [SIT], and 4% body-weight interval training [BWIT]). Affect and enjoyment were the most frequently studied psychological outcomes. Post-exercise assessments indicate that overall, enjoyment of, and preferences for interval exercise are equal or greater than for continuous exercise, and participants can hold relatively positive social cognitions regarding interval exercise. Although several methodological issues (e.g., inconsistent use of terminology, measures and protocols) and gaps (e.g., data on adherence and real-world protocols) require attention, from a psychological perspective, the emerging data support the viability of interval exercise as an alternative to continuous exercise.

The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

2008-10-31

A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

Application of the entropic coefficient for interval number optimization during interval assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tynynyka A. N.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In solving many statistical problems, the most precise choice of the distribution law of a random variable is required, the sample of which the authors observe. This choice requires the construction of an interval series. Therefore, the problem arises of assigning an optimal number of intervals, and this study proposes a number of formulas for solving it. Which of these formulas solves the problem more accurately? In [9], this question is investigated using the Pearson criterion. This article describes the procedure and on its basis gives formulas available in literature and proposed new formulas using the entropy coefficient. A comparison is made with the previously published results of applying Pearson's concord criterion for these purposes. Differences in the estimates of the accuracy of the formulas are found. The proposed new formulas for calculating the number of intervals showed the best results. Calculations have been made to compare the work of the same formulas for the distribution of sample data according to the normal law and the Rayleigh law.

Fuzzy time series forecasting model with natural partitioning length approach for predicting the unemployment rate under different degree of confidence

Science.gov (United States)

Ramli, Nazirah; Mutalib, Siti Musleha Ab; Mohamad, Daud

2017-08-01

Fuzzy time series forecasting model has been proposed since 1993 to cater for data in linguistic values. Many improvement and modification have been made to the model such as enhancement on the length of interval and types of fuzzy logical relation. However, most of the improvement models represent the linguistic term in the form of discrete fuzzy sets. In this paper, fuzzy time series model with data in the form of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and natural partitioning length approach is introduced for predicting the unemployment rate. Two types of fuzzy relations are used in this study which are first order and second order fuzzy relation. This proposed model can produce the forecasted values under different degree of confidence.

An Exact Confidence Region in Multivariate Calibration

OpenAIRE

Mathew, Thomas; Kasala, Subramanyam

1994-01-01

In the multivariate calibration problem using a multivariate linear model, an exact confidence region is constructed. It is shown that the region is always nonempty and is invariant under nonsingular transformations.

A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

Science.gov (United States)

Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

1982-01-01

One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabella Kasselstrand

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

Teachers and Counselors: Building Math Confidence in Schools

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph M. Furner

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Mathematics teachers need to take on the role of counselors in addressing the math anxious in today's math classrooms. This paper looks at the impact math anxiety has on the future of young adults in our high-tech society. Teachers and professional school counselors are encouraged to work together to prevent and reduce math anxiety. It is important that all students feel confident in their ability to do mathematics in an age that relies so heavily on problem solving, technology, science, and mathematics. It really is a school's obligation to see that their students value and feel confident in their ability to do math, because ultimately a child's life: all decisions they will make and careers choices may be determined based on their disposition toward mathematics. This paper raises some interesting questions and provides some strategies (See Appendix A for teachers and counselors for addressing the issue of math anxiety while discussing the importance of developing mathematically confident young people for a high-tech world of STEM.

Building public confidence in the world's nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duncan, C.D.

1996-01-01

Public confidence in the nuclear industry requires two things, which are trust and understanding. Trust is an emotional response based upon an instinctive reaction. Understanding, on the other hand, is an intellectual response based upon facts. To gain public confidence, both of these levels must be communicated and proactive strategies must be implemented to do this. To achieve this objective will require confidence and courage in communication programs. Each company operating in the nuclear sector must be proactive in building its individual reputation and must not retreat from controversy. Similarly, each industry body must continue the Herculean task of building understanding. The nuclear industry has powerful arguments. ICI, BP or Ford did not achieve their licences to operate by keeping their heads down, they achieved their current market positions by building a positive corporate reputation within their respective industrial contexts over many decades. In order to achieve a similar position for the nuclear industry and the companies, their examples must be followed. If it is continued to 'keep the heads down' in the trenches, public opinion will surely bury within it. (G.K.)

Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments.

Science.gov (United States)

Lebreton, Maël; Langdon, Shari; Slieker, Matthijs J; Nooitgedacht, Jip S; Goudriaan, Anna E; Denys, Damiaan; van Holst, Ruth J; Luigjes, Judy

2018-05-01

Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts.

Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments

Science.gov (United States)

Lebreton, Maël; Slieker, Matthijs J.; Nooitgedacht, Jip S.; van Holst, Ruth J.; Luigjes, Judy

2018-01-01

Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts. PMID:29854944

Growing confidence, building skills | IDRC - International ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

In 2012 Rashid explored the influence of think tanks on policy in Bangladesh, as well as their relationships with international donors and media. In 2014, he explored two-way student exchanges between Canadian and ... his IDRC experience “gave me the confidence to conduct high quality research in social sciences.”.

Tumor phenotype and breast density in distinct categories of interval cancer: results of population-based mammography screening in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Introduction Interval cancers are tumors arising after a negative screening episode and before the next screening invitation. They can be classified into true interval cancers, false-negatives, minimal-sign cancers, and occult tumors based on mammographic findings in screening and diagnostic mammograms. This study aimed to describe tumor-related characteristics and the association of breast density and tumor phenotype within four interval cancer categories. Methods We included 2,245 invasive tumors (1,297 screening-detected and 948 interval cancers) diagnosed from 2000 to 2009 among 645,764 women aged 45 to 69 who underwent biennial screening in Spain. Interval cancers were classified by a semi-informed retrospective review into true interval cancers (n = 455), false-negatives (n = 224), minimal-sign (n = 166), and occult tumors (n = 103). Breast density was evaluated using Boyd’s scale and was conflated into: 75%. Tumor-related information was obtained from cancer registries and clinical records. Tumor phenotype was defined as follows: luminal A: ER+/HER2- or PR+/HER2-; luminal B: ER+/HER2+ or PR+/HER2+; HER2: ER-/PR-/HER2+; triple-negative: ER-/PR-/HER2-. The association of tumor phenotype and breast density was assessed using a multinomial logistic regression model. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Forty-eight percent of interval cancers were true interval cancers and 23.6% false-negatives. True interval cancers were associated with HER2 and triple-negative phenotypes (OR = 1.91 (95% CI:1.22-2.96), OR = 2.07 (95% CI:1.42-3.01), respectively) and extremely dense breasts (>75%) (OR = 1.67 (95% CI:1.08-2.56)). However, among true interval cancers a higher proportion of triple-negative tumors was observed in predominantly fatty breasts (breasts (28.7%, 21.4%, 11.3% and 14.3%, respectively; screening-detected cancers, extreme breast density

A scale for consumer confidence in the safety of food

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonge, de J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Lans, van der I.A.; Renes, R.J.; Frewer, L.J.

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scale to measure general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Results from exploratory and confirmatory analyses indicate that general consumer confidence in the safety of food consists of two distinct dimensions, optimism and pessimism,

Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

2012-01-01

The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R.; Sigman, Mariano

2014-01-01

Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

Assessing confidence in management adaptation approaches for climate-sensitive ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

West, J M; Julius, S H; Weaver, C P

2012-01-01

A number of options are available for adapting ecosystem management to improve resilience in the face of climatic changes. However, uncertainty exists as to the effectiveness of these options. A report prepared for the US Climate Change Science Program reviewed adaptation options for a range of federally managed systems in the United States. The report included a qualitative uncertainty analysis of conceptual approaches to adaptation derived from the review. The approaches included reducing anthropogenic stressors, protecting key ecosystem features, maintaining representation, replicating, restoring, identifying refugia and relocating organisms. The results showed that the expert teams had the greatest scientific confidence in adaptation options that reduce anthropogenic stresses. Confidence in other approaches was lower because of gaps in understanding of ecosystem function, climate change impacts on ecosystems, and management effectiveness. This letter discusses insights gained from the confidence exercise and proposes strategies for improving future assessments of confidence for management adaptations to climate change. (letter)

THE USE OF SKIT TECHNIQUE TO INCREASE STUDENTS’ SELF-CONFIDENCE IN SPEAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dini Deswarni

2017-12-01

The study aimed to know the use of Skit Technique to increase students’ self-confidence in speaking English. Speaking is one of important skills in English. Self-Confidence is really need to speak in English. Someone needs self-confidence to express their idea and their feelings in a foreign language especially in English. Not all of the people have good self-confidence in using English to express or to share their idea and their opinion. The aim of this study is to know whether the Skit Technique can increase self- confidence in speaking English. In other words Skit Technique can help to increase self-confidence in speaking English. The design of this research is experiment. The population of the research is 46 students at the eight grade students of MTs Darul Ihsan Duri. The sample technique is random sampling. From the data, it can be seen that Ttable < Tvalue (2.101 < 12.466. It means Ha is accepted and Skit Technique done in experiment class.

Interval-based reconstruction for uncertainty quantification in PET

Science.gov (United States)

Kucharczak, Florentin; Loquin, Kevin; Buvat, Irène; Strauss, Olivier; Mariano-Goulart, Denis

2018-02-01

A new directed interval-based tomographic reconstruction algorithm, called non-additive interval based expectation maximization (NIBEM) is presented. It uses non-additive modeling of the forward operator that provides intervals instead of single-valued projections. The detailed approach is an extension of the maximum likelihood—expectation maximization algorithm based on intervals. The main motivation for this extension is that the resulting intervals have appealing properties for estimating the statistical uncertainty associated with the reconstructed activity values. After reviewing previously published theoretical concepts related to interval-based projectors, this paper describes the NIBEM algorithm and gives examples that highlight the properties and advantages of this interval valued reconstruction.

PMICALC: an R code-based software for estimating post-mortem interval (PMI) compatible with Windows, Mac and Linux operating systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz-Barús, José I; Rodríguez-Calvo, María Sol; Suárez-Peñaranda, José M; Vieira, Duarte N; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Febrero-Bande, Manuel

2010-01-30

In legal medicine the correct determination of the time of death is of utmost importance. Recent advances in estimating post-mortem interval (PMI) have made use of vitreous humour chemistry in conjunction with Linear Regression, but the results are questionable. In this paper we present PMICALC, an R code-based freeware package which estimates PMI in cadavers of recent death by measuring the concentrations of potassium ([K+]), hypoxanthine ([Hx]) and urea ([U]) in the vitreous humor using two different regression models: Additive Models (AM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), which offer more flexibility than the previously used Linear Regression. The results from both models are better than those published to date and can give numerical expression of PMI with confidence intervals and graphic support within 20 min. The program also takes into account the cause of death. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Haemostatic reference intervals in pregnancy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Szecsi, Pal Bela; Jørgensen, Maja; Klajnbard, Anna

2010-01-01

Haemostatic reference intervals are generally based on samples from non-pregnant women. Thus, they may not be relevant to pregnant women, a problem that may hinder accurate diagnosis and treatment of haemostatic disorders during pregnancy. In this study, we establish gestational age-specific refe......Haemostatic reference intervals are generally based on samples from non-pregnant women. Thus, they may not be relevant to pregnant women, a problem that may hinder accurate diagnosis and treatment of haemostatic disorders during pregnancy. In this study, we establish gestational age......-specific reference intervals for coagulation tests during normal pregnancy. Eight hundred one women with expected normal pregnancies were included in the study. Of these women, 391 had no complications during pregnancy, vaginal delivery, or postpartum period. Plasma samples were obtained at gestational weeks 13......-20, 21-28, 29-34, 35-42, at active labor, and on postpartum days 1 and 2. Reference intervals for each gestational period using only the uncomplicated pregnancies were calculated in all 391 women for activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), fibrinogen, fibrin D-dimer, antithrombin, free protein S...

Modal interval analysis new tools for numerical information

CERN Document Server

Sainz, Miguel A; Calm, Remei; Herrero, Pau; Jorba, Lambert; Vehi, Josep

2014-01-01

This book presents an innovative new approach to interval analysis. Modal Interval Analysis (MIA) is an attempt to go beyond the limitations of classic intervals in terms of their structural, algebraic and logical features. The starting point of MIA is quite simple: It consists in defining a modal interval that attaches a quantifier to a classical interval and in introducing the basic relation of inclusion between modal intervals by means of the inclusion of the sets of predicates they accept. This modal approach introduces interval extensions of the real continuous functions, identifies equivalences between logical formulas and interval inclusions, and provides the semantic theorems that justify these equivalences, along with guidelines for arriving at these inclusions. Applications of these equivalences in different areas illustrate the obtained results. The book also presents a new interval object: marks, which aspire to be a new form of numerical treatment of errors in measurements and computations.

Development and Evaluation of a Confidence-Weighting Computerized Adaptive Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Yen, Yung-Chin; Ho, Rong-Guey; Chen, Li-Ju; Chou, Kun-Yi; Chen, Yan-Lin

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether the efficiency, precision, and validity of computerized adaptive testing (CAT) could be improved by assessing confidence differences in knowledge that examinees possessed. We proposed a novel polytomous CAT model called the confidence-weighting computerized adaptive testing (CWCAT), which combined a…

Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Douglas A.

This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

Optimal Data Interval for Estimating Advertising Response

OpenAIRE

Gerard J. Tellis; Philip Hans Franses

2006-01-01

The abundance of highly disaggregate data (e.g., at five-second intervals) raises the question of the optimal data interval to estimate advertising carryover. The literature assumes that (1) the optimal data interval is the interpurchase time, (2) too disaggregate data causes a disaggregation bias, and (3) recovery of true parameters requires assumption of the underlying advertising process. In contrast, we show that (1) the optimal data interval is what we call , (2) too disaggregate data do...

The application of deep confidence network in the problem of image recognition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chumachenko О.І.

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In order to study the concept of deep learning, in particular the substitution of multilayer perceptron on the corresponding network of deep confidence, computer simulations of the learning process to test voters was carried out. Multi-layer perceptron has been replaced by a network of deep confidence, consisting of successive limited Boltzmann machines. After training of a network of deep confidence algorithm of layer-wise training it was found that the use of networks of deep confidence greatly improves the accuracy of multilayer perceptron training by method of reverse distribution errors.

The accuracy of meta-metacognitive judgments: regulating the realism of confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin

2012-08-01

Can people improve the realism of their confidence judgments about the correctness of their episodic memory reports by deselecting the least realistic judgments? An assumption of Koriat and Goldsmith's (Psychol Rev 103:490-517, 1996) model is that confidence judgments regulate the reporting of memory reports. We tested whether this assumption generalizes to the regulation of the realism (accuracy) of confidence judgments. In two experiments, 270 adults in separate conditions answered 50 recognition and recall questions about the contents of a just-seen video. After each answer, they made confidence judgments about the answer's correctness. In Experiment 1, the participants in the recognition conditions significantly increased their absolute bias when they excluded 15 questions. In Experiment 2, the participants in the recall condition significantly improved their calibration. The results indicate that recall, more than recognition, offers valid cues for participants to increase the realism of their report. However, the effects were small with only weak support for the conclusion that people have some ability to regulate the realism in their confidence judgments.

Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

2015-12-01

Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.

Delay-Dependent Guaranteed Cost H∞ Control of an Interval System with Interval Time-Varying Delay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhongke Shi

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper concerns the problem of the delay-dependent robust stability and guaranteed cost H∞ control for an interval system with time-varying delay. The interval system with matrix factorization is provided and leads to less conservative conclusions than solving a square root. The time-varying delay is assumed to belong to an interval and the derivative of the interval time-varying delay is not a restriction, which allows a fast time-varying delay; also its applicability is broad. Based on the Lyapunov-Ktasovskii approach, a delay-dependent criterion for the existence of a state feedback controller, which guarantees the closed-loop system stability, the upper bound of cost function, and disturbance attenuation lever for all admissible uncertainties as well as out perturbation, is proposed in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. The criterion is derived by free weighting matrices that can reduce the conservatism. The effectiveness has been verified in a number example and the compute results are presented to validate the proposed design method.

Consistency and refinement for Interval Markov Chains

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Delahaye, Benoit; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

2012-01-01

Interval Markov Chains (IMC), or Markov Chains with probability intervals in the transition matrix, are the base of a classic specification theory for probabilistic systems [18]. The standard semantics of IMCs assigns to a specification the set of all Markov Chains that satisfy its interval...

How Is Gender Self-Confidence Related to Subjective Well-Being?

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffman, Rose Marie

2006-01-01

This study of ethnically diverse participants explored the relationship of gender self-confidence to subjective well-being. The 2 components of gender self-confidence (gender self-definition and gender self-acceptance) were assessed using the Hoffman Gender Scale (R. M. Hoffman, 1996; R. M. Hoffman, L. D. Borders, & J. A. Hattie, 2000). The…

The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

Science.gov (United States)

Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

2012-01-01

The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

To protect and serve: Restoring public confidence in the SAPS ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Persistent incidents of brutality, criminal behaviour and abuse of authority by members of South Africa's police agencies have serious implications for public trust and confidence in the police. A decline in trust and confidence in the police is inevitably harmful to the ability of the government to reduce crime and improve public ...

Serum prolactin revisited: parametric reference intervals and cross platform evaluation of polyethylene glycol precipitation-based methods for discrimination between hyperprolactinemia and macroprolactinemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Overgaard, Martin; Pedersen, Susanne Møller

2017-10-26

Hyperprolactinemia diagnosis and treatment is often compromised by the presence of biologically inactive and clinically irrelevant higher-molecular-weight complexes of prolactin, macroprolactin. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of two macroprolactin screening regimes across commonly used automated immunoassay platforms. Parametric total and monomeric gender-specific reference intervals were determined for six immunoassay methods using female (n=96) and male sera (n=127) from healthy donors. The reference intervals were validated using 27 hyperprolactinemic and macroprolactinemic sera, whose presence of monomeric and macroforms of prolactin were determined using gel filtration chromatography (GFC). Normative data for six prolactin assays included the range of values (2.5th-97.5th percentiles). Validation sera (hyperprolactinemic and macroprolactinemic; n=27) showed higher discordant classification [mean=2.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-4.4] for the monomer reference interval method compared to the post-polyethylene glycol (PEG) recovery cutoff method (mean=1.8; 95% CI 0.8-2.8). The two monomer/macroprolactin discrimination methods did not differ significantly (p=0.089). Among macroprolactinemic sera evaluated by both discrimination methods, the Cobas and Architect/Kryptor prolactin assays showed the lowest and the highest number of misclassifications, respectively. Current automated immunoassays for prolactin testing require macroprolactin screening methods based on PEG precipitation in order to discriminate truly from falsely elevated serum prolactin. While the recovery cutoff and monomeric reference interval macroprolactin screening methods demonstrate similar discriminative ability, the latter method also provides the clinician with an easy interpretable monomeric prolactin concentration along with a monomeric reference interval.

Bootstrap-based confidence estimation in PCA and multivariate statistical process control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Babamoradi, Hamid

be used to detect outliers in the data since the outliers can distort the bootstrap estimates. Bootstrap-based confidence limits were suggested as alternative to the asymptotic limits for control charts and contribution plots in MSPC (Paper II). The results showed that in case of the Q-statistic......Traditional/Asymptotic confidence estimation has limited applicability since it needs statistical theories to estimate the confidences, which are not available for all indicators/parameters. Furthermore, in case the theories are available for a specific indicator/parameter, the theories are based....... The goal was to improve process monitoring by improving the quality of MSPC charts and contribution plots. Bootstrapping algorithm to build confidence limits was illustrated in a case study format (Paper I). The main steps in the algorithm were discussed where a set of sensible choices (plus...

Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

Science.gov (United States)

Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

2012-01-01

Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

Exploring Self - Confidence Level of High School Students Doing Sport

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nurullah Emir Ekinci

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate self-confidence levels of high school students, who do sport, in the extent of their gender, sport branch (individual/team sports and aim for participating in sport (professional/amateur. 185 active high school students from Kutahya voluntarily participated for the study. In the study as data gathering tool self-confidence scale was used. In the evaluation of the data as a hypothesis test Mann Whitney U non parametric test was used. As a result self-confidence levels of participants showed significant differences according to their gender and sport branch but there was no significant difference according to aim for participating in sport.

Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland.

Science.gov (United States)

Kłopocka, Aneta Maria

2017-01-01

Consumer confidence plays an important role in households' decision-making processes. This study investigates the effects of consumer confidence on household saving and borrowing behavior that are unsatisfactorily considered in previous discussions. The questions of interest are first, whether indexes of consumer confidence have any predictive power on their own for future household saving and borrowing rates, and second, whether they contain information about future household saving and borrowing rates aside from the information contained in other available indicators. In addition to aggregate confidence indicators, their components are used to provide more precise information. Overall, the multiple linear regression analysis (OLS technique) of Polish time-series data gives positive answers to both questions. This finding supports the recommendation of combining the strengths of objective indicators (such as economic fundamentals) and subjective indicators (such as consumer confidence) to improve household financial behavior forecasts.

Advanced Interval Management: A Benefit Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Timer, Sebastian; Peters, Mark

2016-01-01

This document is the final report for the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC)- sponsored task order 'Possible Benefits for Advanced Interval Management Operations.' Under this research project, Architecture Technology Corporation performed an analysis to determine the maximum potential benefit to be gained if specific Advanced Interval Management (AIM) operations were implemented in the National Airspace System (NAS). The motivation for this research is to guide NASA decision-making on which Interval Management (IM) applications offer the most potential benefit and warrant further research.

Short-interval and long-interval intracortical inhibition of TMS-evoked EEG potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Premoli, Isabella; Király, Julia; Müller-Dahlhaus, Florian; Zipser, Carl M; Rossini, Pierre; Zrenner, Christoph; Ziemann, Ulf; Belardinelli, Paolo

2018-03-15

Inhibition in the human motor cortex can be probed by means of paired-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (ppTMS) at interstimulus intervals of 2-3 ms (short-interval intracortical inhibition, SICI) or ∼100 ms (long-interval intracortical inhibition, LICI). Conventionally, SICI and LICI are recorded as motor evoked potential (MEP) inhibition in the hand muscle. Pharmacological experiments indicate that they are mediated by GABAA and GABAB receptors, respectively. SICI and LICI of TMS-evoked EEG potentials (TEPs) and their pharmacological properties have not been systematically studied. Here, we sought to examine SICI by ppTMS-evoked compared to single-pulse TMS-evoked TEPs, to investigate its pharmacological manipulation and to compare SICI with our previous results on LICI. PpTMS-EEG was applied to the left motor cortex in 16 healthy subjects in a randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled crossover design, testing the effects of a single oral dose 20 mg of diazepam, a positive modulator at the GABAA receptor, vs. 50 mg of the GABAB receptor agonist baclofen on SICI of TEPs. We found significant SICI of the N100 and P180 TEPs prior to drug intake. Diazepam reduced SICI of the N100 TEP, while baclofen enhanced it. Compared to our previous ppTMS-EEG results on LICI, the SICI effects on TEPs, including their drug modulation, were largely analogous. Findings suggest a similar interaction of paired-pulse effects on TEPs irrespective of the interstimulus interval. Therefore, SICI and LICI as measured with TEPs cannot be directly derived from SICI and LICI measured with MEPs, but may offer novel insight into paired-pulse responses recorded directly from the brain rather than muscle. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

46 CFR 61.20-17 - Examination intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Examination intervals. 61.20-17 Section 61.20-17... INSPECTIONS Periodic Tests of Machinery and Equipment § 61.20-17 Examination intervals. (a) A lubricant that... examination interval. (b) Except as provided in paragraphs (c) through (f) of this section, each tailshaft on...

Haemostatic reference intervals in pregnancy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Szecsi, Pal Bela; Jørgensen, Maja; Klajnbard, Anna

2010-01-01

largely unchanged during pregnancy, delivery, and postpartum and were within non-pregnant reference intervals. However, levels of fibrinogen, D-dimer, and coagulation factors VII, VIII, and IX increased markedly. Protein S activity decreased substantially, while free protein S decreased slightly and total......Haemostatic reference intervals are generally based on samples from non-pregnant women. Thus, they may not be relevant to pregnant women, a problem that may hinder accurate diagnosis and treatment of haemostatic disorders during pregnancy. In this study, we establish gestational age......-20, 21-28, 29-34, 35-42, at active labor, and on postpartum days 1 and 2. Reference intervals for each gestational period using only the uncomplicated pregnancies were calculated in all 391 women for activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), fibrinogen, fibrin D-dimer, antithrombin, free protein S...

Changing job seekers' image perceptions during recruitment visits: the moderating role of belief confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Slaughter, Jerel E; Cable, Daniel M; Turban, Daniel B

2014-11-01

The purpose of this study was to understand how an important construct in social psychology-confidence in one's beliefs-could both (a) influence the effectiveness of organizations' recruiting processes and (b) be changed during recruitment. Using a sample of recruits to a branch of the United States military, the authors studied belief confidence before and after recruits' formal visits to the organization's recruiting stations. Personal sources of information had a stronger influence on recruits' belief confidence than impersonal sources. Moreover, recruits' confidence in their initial beliefs affected how perceptions of the recruiter changed their employer images. Among participants with low-initial confidence, the relation between recruitment experiences and employer images was positive and linear across the whole range of recruitment experiences. Among recruits with high-initial confidence, however, the recruitment experience-image relationship was curvilinear, such that recruitment experiences were related to images only at more positive recruitment experiences. The relationship between recruitment experiences and changes in belief confidence was also curvilinear, such that only more positive recruitment experiences led to changes in confidence. These results indicate not only that belief confidence influences the effectiveness of recruiting efforts but also that recruiting efforts can influence belief confidence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Palbociclib has no clinically relevant effect on the QTc interval in patients with advanced breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Durairaj, Chandrasekar; Ruiz-Garcia, Ana; Gauthier, Eric R; Huang, Xin; Lu, Dongrui R; Hoffman, Justin T; Finn, Richard S; Joy, Anil A; Ettl, Johannes; Rugo, Hope S; Zheng, Jenny; Wilner, Keith D; Wang, Diane D

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to assess the potential effects of palbociclib in combination with letrozole on QTc. PALOMA-2, a phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, compared palbociclib plus letrozole with placebo plus letrozole in postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative advanced breast cancer. The study included a QTc evaluation substudy carried out as a definitive QT interval prolongation assessment for palbociclib. Time-matched triplicate ECGs were performed at 0, 2, 4, 6, and 8 h at baseline (Day 0) and on Cycle 1 Day 14. Additional ECGs were collected from all patients for safety monitoring. The QT interval was corrected for heart rate using Fridericia's correction (QTcF), Bazett's correction (QTcB), and a study-specific correction factor (QTcS). In total, 666 patients were randomized 2 : 1 to palbociclib plus letrozole or placebo plus letrozole. Of these, 125 patients were enrolled in the QTc evaluation substudy. No patients in the palbociclib plus letrozole arm of the substudy (N=77) had a maximum postbaseline QTcS or QTcF value of ≥ 480 ms, or a maximum increase from clock time-matched baseline for QTcS or QTcF values of ≥ 60 ms. The upper bounds of the one-sided 95% confidence interval for the mean change from time-matched baseline for QTcS, QTcF, and QTcB at all time points and at steady-state Cmax following repeated administration of 125 mg palbociclib were less than 10 ms. Palbociclib, when administered with letrozole at the recommended therapeutic dosing regimen, did not prolong the QT interval to a clinically relevant extent.

A Comparative Study of Self-Confidence from the Perspectives of Quran, Ahadith and Psychology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sayyed Ali Mostajaboldavati

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Self-confidence, referring to relying on and exploiting individual abilities and talents for realizing spiritual and material prosperity, not only contradicts but is in agreement with and a prerequisite for faith in God. Practically, the greater faith in God one has, the more potent self-confidence he /she possess. Investigating the subject of self-confidence from the perspectives of Quran, Ahadith and psychology, this study explores the meaning of self (soul in self-confidence and its levels, the prerequisites for development and enhancement of self-confidence, the association of self-concept and self-esteem with self-confidence, and the approaches to develop and enhance positive self-concept as well as to boost self-confidence. Methods: The data of this descriptive review article were gathered from library and digital references. Results: Although it appears that self-confidence contradicts Islamic teachings, it can be clearly understood that this teaching subject is confirmed and emphasized in Islamic teachings by discovery of its true meaning. Conclusion: If having self-confidence is meant to rely on and exploiting individual abilities and talents to reach material and spiritual prosperity, it not only does not contradict but is in agreement with and a prerequisite for faith in God. Self in self- confidence indeed means human as a combination of the body and the spirit which is fully consistent with indices of self-confidence. According to psychologists, improving self-esteem and positive self-concept affects self-confidence directly. From perspective of religion, paying attention to venerability and God-given dignity of human, recognizing the superb purpose in life, etc. are approaches to develop and enhance positive self-concept and self-esteem, and to boost self-confidence.

Leadership by Confidence in Teams

OpenAIRE

Kobayashi, Hajime; Suehiro, Hideo

2008-01-01

We study endogenous signaling by analyzing a team production problem with endogenous timing. Each agent of the team is privately endowed with some level of confidence about team productivity. Each of them must then commit a level of effort in one of two periods. At the end of each period, each agent observes his partner' s move in this period. Both agents are rewarded by a team output determined by team productivity and total invested effort. Each agent must personally incur the cost of effor...

Direct Interval Forecasting of Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wan, Can; Xu, Zhao; Pinson, Pierre

2013-01-01

This letter proposes a novel approach to directly formulate the prediction intervals of wind power generation based on extreme learning machine and particle swarm optimization, where prediction intervals are generated through direct optimization of both the coverage probability and sharpness...

A note on birth interval distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrestha, G.

1989-08-01

A considerable amount of work has been done regarding the birth interval analysis in mathematical demography. This paper is prepared with the intention of reviewing some probability models related to interlive birth intervals proposed by different researchers. (author). 14 refs

Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

Science.gov (United States)

Steve Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

2007-01-01

For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations.

Transparency as an element of public confidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, H.K.

2007-01-01

In the modern society, there is increasing demands for greater transparency. It has been discussed with respect to corruption or ethics issues in social science. The need for greater openness and transparency in nuclear regulation is widely recognised as public expectations on regulator grow. It is also related to the digital and information technology that enables disclosures of every activity and information of individual and organisation, characterised by numerous 'small brothers'. Transparency has become a key word in this ubiquitous era. Transparency in regulatory activities needs to be understood in following contexts. First, transparency is one of elements to build public confidence in regulator and eventually to achieve regulatory goal of providing the public with satisfaction at nuclear safety. Transparent bases of competence, independence, ethics and integrity of working process of regulatory body would enhance public confidence. Second, activities transmitting information on nuclear safety and preparedness to be accessed are different types of transparency. Communication is an active method of transparency. With increasing use of web-sites, 'digital transparency' is also discussed as passive one. Transparency in regulatory process may be more important than that of contents. Simply providing more information is of little value and specific information may need to be protected for security reason. Third, transparency should be discussed in international, national and organizational perspectives. It has been demanded through international instruments. for each country, transparency is demanded by residents, public, NGOs, media and other stakeholders. Employees also demand more transparency in operating and regulatory organisations. Whistle-blower may appear unless they are satisfied. Fourth, pursuing transparency may cause undue social cost or adverse effects. Over-transparency may decrease public confidence and the process for transparency may also hinder

78 FR 57538 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-19

..., Chief, Communication, Planning, and Rulemaking Branch Waste Confidence Directorate, Office of Nuclear...-2012-0246] RIN 3150-AJ20 Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact... disposal (proposed Waste Confidence rule). In addition, the NRC will receive public comment on its...

Investigating the psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates.

Science.gov (United States)

Ertekin Pinar, Sukran; Yildirim, Gulay; Sayin, Neslihan

2018-05-01

The high level of psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem solving skills of midwife candidates play an important role in increasing the quality of health care and in fulfilling their responsibilities towards patients. This study was conducted to investigate the psychological resilience, self-confidence and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates. It is a convenience descriptive quantitative study. Students who study at Health Sciences Faculty in Turkey's Central Anatolia Region. Midwife candidates (N = 270). In collection of data, the Personal Information Form, Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults (PRSA), Self-Confidence Scale (SCS), and Problem Solving Inventory (PSI) were used. There was a negatively moderate-level significant relationship between the Problem Solving Inventory scores and the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores (r = -0.619; p = 0.000), and between Self-Confidence Scale scores (r = -0.524; p = 0.000). There was a positively moderate-level significant relationship between the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores and the Self-Confidence Scale scores (r = 0.583; p = 0.000). There was a statistically significant difference (p Problem Solving Inventory and the Psychological Resilience Scale for Adults scores according to getting support in a difficult situation. As psychological resilience and self-confidence levels increase, problem-solving skills increase; additionally, as self-confidence increases, psychological resilience increases too. Psychological resilience, self-confidence, and problem-solving skills of midwife candidates in their first-year of studies are higher than those who are in their fourth year. Self-confidence and psychological resilience of midwife candidates aged between 17 and 21, self-confidence and problem solving skills of residents of city centers, psychological resilience of those who perceive their monthly income as sufficient are high

Electrocardiographic PR-interval duration and cardiovascular risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Peter Vibe; Nielsen, Jonas Bille; Skov, Morten Wagner

2017-01-01

Background Because of ambiguous reports in the literature, we aimed to investigate the association between PR interval and the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, heart failure, and pacemaker implantation, allowing for a nonlinear relationship. MethodsWe included 293,111 individuals...... into 7 groups based on the population PR interval distribution. Cox models were used, with reference to a PR interval between 152 and 161 ms (40th to heart failure...... adjustment. A long PR interval conferred an increased risk of heart failure ( > 200 ms; HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.22-1.42; P 200 ms (HR, 3...

Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F. Z.; Havlin, S.; Kaizoji, T.; Moon, H.-T.; Stanley, H. E.

2008-03-01

We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean . We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.

Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Settlemyer, Bradley W [ORNL; Hodson, Stephen W [ORNL; Kuehn, Jeffery A [ORNL; Poole, Stephen W [ORNL

2011-04-01

Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

Distribution of the product confidence limits for the indirect effect: Program PRODCLIN

Science.gov (United States)

MacKinnon, David P.; Fritz, Matthew S.; Williams, Jason; Lockwood, Chondra M.

2010-01-01

This article describes a program, PRODCLIN (distribution of the PRODuct Confidence Limits for INdirect effects), written for SAS, SPSS, and R, that computes confidence limits for the product of two normal random variables. The program is important because it can be used to obtain more accurate confidence limits for the indirect effect, as demonstrated in several recent articles (MacKinnon, Lockwood, & Williams, 2004; Pituch, Whittaker, & Stapleton, 2005). Tests of the significance of and confidence limits for indirect effects based on the distribution of the product method have more accurate Type I error rates and more power than other, more commonly used tests. Values for the two paths involved in the indirect effect and their standard errors are entered in the PRODCLIN program, and distribution of the product confidence limits are computed. Several examples are used to illustrate the PRODCLIN program. The PRODCLIN programs in rich text format may be downloaded from www.psychonomic.org/archive. PMID:17958149

Building confidence: an exploration of nurses undertaking a postgraduate biological science course.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Wissen, Kim; McBride-Henry, Karen

2010-01-01

This study aimed to explore the impact of studying biological science at a postgraduate level and how this impacted on nursing practice. The term biological sciences in this research encompasses elements of physiology, genetics, biochemistry and pathophysiology. A qualitative research study was designed, that involved the dissemination of a pre- and post-course semi-structured questionnaire for a biological science course, as part of a Master of Nursing programme at a New Zealand University, thus exploring the impact of undertaking a postgraduate biological sciences course. The responses were analysed into themes, based on interpretive concepts. The primary themes revealed improvement in confidence as: confidence in communication, confidence in linking nursing theoretical knowledge to practice and confidence in clinical nursing knowledge. This study highlights the need to privilege clinically-derived nursing knowledge, and that confidence in this nursing knowledge and clinical practice can be instilled through employing the model of theory-guided practice.

An Adequate First Order Logic of Intervals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chaochen, Zhou; Hansen, Michael Reichhardt

1998-01-01

This paper introduces left and right neighbourhoods as primitive interval modalities to define other unary and binary modalities of intervals in a first order logic with interval length. A complete first order logic for the neighbourhood modalities is presented. It is demonstrated how the logic can...... support formal specification and verification of liveness and fairness, and also of various notions of real analysis....

Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Lorenz, Jan

Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

A general model of confidence building: analysis and implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilgour, D.M.

1998-01-01

For more than two decades, security approaches in Europe have included confidence building. Many have argued that Confidence-Building Measures (CBMS) played an essential role in the enormous transformations that took place there. Thus, it is hardly,surprising that CBMs have been proposed as measures to reduce tensions and transform security relationships elsewhere in the world. The move toward wider application of CBMs has strengthened recently, as conventional military, diplomatic, and humanitarian approaches seem to have failed to address problems associated with peace-building and peace support operations. There is, however, a serious problem. We don't really know why, or even how, CBMs work. Consequently, we have no reliable way to design CBMs that would be appropriate in substance, form, and timing for regions culturally, geographically, and militarily different from Europe. Lacking a solid understanding of confidence building, we are handicapped in our efforts to extend its successes to the domain of peace building and peace support. To paraphrase Macintosh, if we don't know how CBMs succeeded in the past, then we are unlikely to be good at maintaining, improving, or extending them. The specific aim of this project is to step into this gap, using the methods of game theory to clarify some aspects of the underlying logic of confidence building. Formal decision models will be shown to contribute new and valuable insights that will assist in the design of CBMs to contribute to new problems and in new arenas. (author)

Tolerance limits and tolerance intervals for ratios of normal random variables using a bootstrap calibration.

Science.gov (United States)

Flouri, Marilena; Zhai, Shuyan; Mathew, Thomas; Bebu, Ionut

2017-05-01

This paper addresses the problem of deriving one-sided tolerance limits and two-sided tolerance intervals for a ratio of two random variables that follow a bivariate normal distribution, or a lognormal/normal distribution. The methodology that is developed uses nonparametric tolerance limits based on a parametric bootstrap sample, coupled with a bootstrap calibration in order to improve accuracy. The methodology is also adopted for computing confidence limits for the median of the ratio random variable. Numerical results are reported to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed approach. The methodology is illustrated using examples where ratio random variables are of interest: an example on the radioactivity count in reverse transcriptase assays and an example from the area of cost-effectiveness analysis in health economics. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Increasing accuracy in the interval analysis by the improved format of interval extension based on the first order Taylor series

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yi; Xu, Yan Long

2018-05-01

When the dependence of the function on uncertain variables is non-monotonic in interval, the interval of function obtained by the classic interval extension based on the first order Taylor series will exhibit significant errors. In order to reduce theses errors, the improved format of the interval extension with the first order Taylor series is developed here considering the monotonicity of function. Two typical mathematic examples are given to illustrate this methodology. The vibration of a beam with lumped masses is studied to demonstrate the usefulness of this method in the practical application, and the necessary input data of which are only the function value at the central point of interval, sensitivity and deviation of function. The results of above examples show that the interval of function from the method developed by this paper is more accurate than the ones obtained by the classic method.

Lower Confidence Bounds for the Probabilities of Correct Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radhey S. Singh

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We extend the results of Gupta and Liang (1998, derived for location parameters, to obtain lower confidence bounds for the probability of correctly selecting the t best populations (PCSt simultaneously for all t=1,…,k−1 for the general scale parameter models, where k is the number of populations involved in the selection problem. The application of the results to the exponential and normal probability models is discussed. The implementation of the simultaneous lower confidence bounds for PCSt is illustrated through real-life datasets.

Metacognitive Confidence Increases with, but Does Not Determine, Visual Perceptual Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Zizlsperger, Leopold; Kümmel, Florian; Haarmeier, Thomas

2016-01-01

While perceptual learning increases objective sensitivity, the effects on the constant interaction of the process of perception and its metacognitive evaluation have been rarely investigated. Visual perception has been described as a process of probabilistic inference featuring metacognitive evaluations of choice certainty. For visual motion perception in healthy, naive human subjects here we show that perceptual sensitivity and confidence in it increased with training. The metacognitive sensitivity-estimated from certainty ratings by a bias-free signal detection theoretic approach-in contrast, did not. Concomitant 3Hz transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) was applied in compliance with previous findings on effective high-low cross-frequency coupling subserving signal detection. While perceptual accuracy and confidence in it improved with training, there were no statistically significant tACS effects. Neither metacognitive sensitivity in distinguishing between their own correct and incorrect stimulus classifications, nor decision confidence itself determined the subjects' visual perceptual learning. Improvements of objective performance and the metacognitive confidence in it were rather determined by the perceptual sensitivity at the outset of the experiment. Post-decision certainty in visual perceptual learning was neither independent of objective performance, nor requisite for changes in sensitivity, but rather covaried with objective performance. The exact functional role of metacognitive confidence in human visual perception has yet to be determined.

Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

2010-01-01

A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm...... to the case of a large number of wind farms in Europe and Australia among others is finally discussed....

A probabilistic approach for representation of interval uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaman, Kais; Rangavajhala, Sirisha; McDonald, Mark P.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2011-01-01

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic approach to represent interval data for input variables in reliability and uncertainty analysis problems, using flexible families of continuous Johnson distributions. Such a probabilistic representation of interval data facilitates a unified framework for handling aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. For fitting probability distributions, methods such as moment matching are commonly used in the literature. However, unlike point data where single estimates for the moments of data can be calculated, moments of interval data can only be computed in terms of upper and lower bounds. Finding bounds on the moments of interval data has been generally considered an NP-hard problem because it includes a search among the combinations of multiple values of the variables, including interval endpoints. In this paper, we present efficient algorithms based on continuous optimization to find the bounds on second and higher moments of interval data. With numerical examples, we show that the proposed bounding algorithms are scalable in polynomial time with respect to increasing number of intervals. Using the bounds on moments computed using the proposed approach, we fit a family of Johnson distributions to interval data. Furthermore, using an optimization approach based on percentiles, we find the bounding envelopes of the family of distributions, termed as a Johnson p-box. The idea of bounding envelopes for the family of Johnson distributions is analogous to the notion of empirical p-box in the literature. Several sets of interval data with different numbers of intervals and type of overlap are presented to demonstrate the proposed methods. As against the computationally expensive nested analysis that is typically required in the presence of interval variables, the proposed probabilistic representation enables inexpensive optimization-based strategies to estimate bounds on an output quantity of interest.

Risk factors for QTc interval prolongation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heemskerk, Charlotte P.M.; Pereboom, Marieke; van Stralen, Karlijn; Berger, Florine A.; van den Bemt, Patricia M.L.A.; Kuijper, Aaf F.M.; van der Hoeven, Ruud T M; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K.; Becker, Matthijs L

2018-01-01

Purpose: Prolongation of the QTc interval may result in Torsade de Pointes, a ventricular arrhythmia. Numerous risk factors for QTc interval prolongation have been described, including the use of certain drugs. In clinical practice, there is much debate about the management of the risks involved. In

Prevalence of E/A wave fusion and A wave truncation in DDD pacemaker patients with complete AV block under nominal AV intervals.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wolfram C Poller

Full Text Available Optimization of the AV-interval (AVI in DDD pacemakers improves cardiac hemodynamics and reduces pacemaker syndromes. Manual optimization is typically not performed in clinical routine. In the present study we analyze the prevalence of E/A wave fusion and A wave truncation under resting conditions in 160 patients with complete AV block (AVB under the pre-programmed AVI. We manually optimized sub-optimal AVI.We analyzed 160 pacemaker patients with complete AVB, both in sinus rhythm (AV-sense; n = 129 and under atrial pacing (AV-pace; n = 31. Using Doppler analyses of the transmitral inflow we classified the nominal AVI as: a normal, b too long (E/A wave fusion or c too short (A wave truncation. In patients with a sub-optimal AVI, we performed manual optimization according to the recommendations of the American Society of Echocardiography.All AVB patients with atrial pacing exhibited a normal transmitral inflow under the nominal AV-pace intervals (100%. In contrast, 25 AVB patients in sinus rhythm showed E/A wave fusion under the pre-programmed AV-sense intervals (19.4%; 95% confidence interval (CI: 12.6-26.2%. A wave truncations were not observed in any patient. All patients with a complete E/A wave fusion achieved a normal transmitral inflow after AV-sense interval reduction (mean optimized AVI: 79.4 ± 13.6 ms.Given the rate of 19.4% (CI 12.6-26.2% of patients with a too long nominal AV-sense interval, automatic algorithms may prove useful in improving cardiac hemodynamics, especially in the subgroup of atrially triggered pacemaker patients with AV node diseases.

A Characterization of 2-Tree Probe Interval Graphs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brown David E.

2014-08-01

Full Text Available A graph is a probe interval graph if its vertices correspond to some set of intervals of the real line and can be partitioned into sets P and N so that vertices are adjacent if and only if their corresponding intervals intersect and at least one belongs to P. We characterize the 2-trees which are probe interval graphs and extend a list of forbidden induced subgraphs for such graphs created by Pržulj and Corneil in [2-tree probe interval graphs have a large obstruction set, Discrete Appl. Math. 150 (2005 216-231

Confidence-building measures in the Asia-Pacific region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qin Huasun

1991-01-01

The regional confidence-building, security and disarmament issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and in particular, support to non-proliferation regime and establishing nuclear-weapon-free zones are reviewed

Magnetic Resonance Fingerprinting with short relaxation intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Amthor, Thomas; Doneva, Mariya; Koken, Peter; Sommer, Karsten; Meineke, Jakob; Börnert, Peter

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to investigate a technique for improving the performance of Magnetic Resonance Fingerprinting (MRF) in repetitive sampling schemes, in particular for 3D MRF acquisition, by shortening relaxation intervals between MRF pulse train repetitions. A calculation method for MRF dictionaries adapted to short relaxation intervals and non-relaxed initial spin states is presented, based on the concept of stationary fingerprints. The method is applicable to many different k-space sampling schemes in 2D and 3D. For accuracy analysis, T 1 and T 2 values of a phantom are determined by single-slice Cartesian MRF for different relaxation intervals and are compared with quantitative reference measurements. The relevance of slice profile effects is also investigated in this case. To further illustrate the capabilities of the method, an application to in-vivo spiral 3D MRF measurements is demonstrated. The proposed computation method enables accurate parameter estimation even for the shortest relaxation intervals, as investigated for different sampling patterns in 2D and 3D. In 2D Cartesian measurements, we achieved a scan acceleration of more than a factor of two, while maintaining acceptable accuracy: The largest T 1 values of a sample set deviated from their reference values by 0.3% (longest relaxation interval) and 2.4% (shortest relaxation interval). The largest T 2 values showed systematic deviations of up to 10% for all relaxation intervals, which is discussed. The influence of slice profile effects for multislice acquisition is shown to become increasingly relevant for short relaxation intervals. In 3D spiral measurements, a scan time reduction of 36% was achieved, maintaining the quality of in-vivo T1 and T2 maps. Reducing the relaxation interval between MRF sequence repetitions using stationary fingerprint dictionaries is a feasible method to improve the scan efficiency of MRF sequences. The method enables fast implementations of 3D spatially

Effect of immersive workplace experience on undergraduate nurses' mental health clinical confidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, Christopher; Moxham, Lorna; Taylor, Ellie K; Perlman, Dana; Brighton, Renee; Sumskis, Susan; Heffernan, Tim; Lee-Bates, Benjamin

2017-12-01

Preregistration education needs to ensure that student nurses are properly trained with the required skills and knowledge, and have the confidence to work with people who have a mental illness. With increased attention on non-traditional mental health clinical placements, further research is required to determine the effects of non-traditional mental health clinical placements on mental health clinical confidence. The aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of a non-traditional mental health clinical placement on mental health nursing clinical confidence compared to nursing students undergoing traditional clinical placements. Using the Mental Health Nursing Clinical Confidence Scale, the study investigated the relative effects of two placement programmes on the mental health clinical confidence of 79 nursing students. The two placement programmes included a non-traditional clinical placement of Recovery Camp and a comparison group that attended traditional clinical placements. Overall, the results indicated that, for both groups, mental health placement had a significant effect on improving mean mental health clinical confidence, both immediately upon conclusion of placement and at the 3-month follow up. Students who attended Recovery Camp reported a significant positive difference, compared to the comparison group, for ratings related to communicating effectively with clients with a mental illness, having a basic knowledge of antipsychotic medications and their side-effects, and providing client education regarding the effects and side-effects of medications. The findings suggest that a unique clinical placement, such as Recovery Camp, can improve and maintain facets of mental health clinical confidence for students of nursing. © 2017 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

An appraisal of statistical procedures used in derivation of reference intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Ichihara, Kiyoshi; Boyd, James C

2010-11-01

When conducting studies to derive reference intervals (RIs), various statistical procedures are commonly applied at each step, from the planning stages to final computation of RIs. Determination of the necessary sample size is an important consideration, and evaluation of at least 400 individuals in each subgroup has been recommended to establish reliable common RIs in multicenter studies. Multiple regression analysis allows identification of the most important factors contributing to variation in test results, while accounting for possible confounding relationships among these factors. Of the various approaches proposed for judging the necessity of partitioning reference values, nested analysis of variance (ANOVA) is the likely method of choice owing to its ability to handle multiple groups and being able to adjust for multiple factors. Box-Cox power transformation often has been used to transform data to a Gaussian distribution for parametric computation of RIs. However, this transformation occasionally fails. Therefore, the non-parametric method based on determination of the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles following sorting of the data, has been recommended for general use. The performance of the Box-Cox transformation can be improved by introducing an additional parameter representing the origin of transformation. In simulations, the confidence intervals (CIs) of reference limits (RLs) calculated by the parametric method were narrower than those calculated by the non-parametric approach. However, the margin of difference was rather small owing to additional variability in parametrically-determined RLs introduced by estimation of parameters for the Box-Cox transformation. The parametric calculation method may have an advantage over the non-parametric method in allowing identification and exclusion of extreme values during RI computation.

INTERVAL OBSERVER FOR A BIOLOGICAL REACTOR MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. A. Kharkovskaia

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The method of an interval observer design for nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties is considered. The interval observer synthesis problem for systems with varying parameters consists in the following. If there is the uncertainty restraint for the state values of the system, limiting the initial conditions of the system and the set of admissible values for the vector of unknown parameters and inputs, the interval existence condition for the estimations of the system state variables, containing the actual state at a given time, needs to be held valid over the whole considered time segment as well. Conditions of the interval observers design for the considered class of systems are shown. They are: limitation of the input and state, the existence of a majorizing function defining the uncertainty vector for the system, Lipschitz continuity or finiteness of this function, the existence of an observer gain with the suitable Lyapunov matrix. The main condition for design of such a device is cooperativity of the interval estimation error dynamics. An individual observer gain matrix selection problem is considered. In order to ensure the property of cooperativity for interval estimation error dynamics, a static transformation of coordinates is proposed. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated by computer modeling of the biological reactor. Possible applications of these interval estimation systems are the spheres of robust control, where the presence of various types of uncertainties in the system dynamics is assumed, biotechnology and environmental systems and processes, mechatronics and robotics, etc.

Empowerment as Interactions that Generate Self-Confidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poder, Poul

2010-01-01

to address this gap in understanding by theorizing how confidence and other positive emotions contribute to personal agency, which is an essential aspect of the empowerment process.                       It is generally understood that confidence – meaning faith in oneself as opposed to conceit or arrogance...... by particular social interactions that promote recognition and access to relevant resources for action. Drawing on emotion-focused sociological theory about agency and emotional energy, and Fredrickson’s ‘build and broaden’ theory of positive emotions, I argue that the focus on consciousness and intentionality...... as the defining features of human agency has led us to downplay the fact that agency is primarily an emotional phenomenon. As such, it is also dynamic and situational, since it is highly dependent on interactions that engender emotional energy and positive emotions that fuel and widen agency. As an example...

Effect of High Intensity Interval Training on Cardiac Function in Children with Obesity: A Randomised Controlled Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingul, Charlotte B; Dias, Katrin A; Tjonna, Arnt E; Follestad, Turid; Hosseini, Mansoureh S; Timilsina, Anita S; Hollekim-Strand, Siri M; Ro, Torstein B; Davies, Peter S W; Cain, Peter A; Leong, Gary M; Coombes, Jeff S

2018-02-13

High intensity interval training (HIIT) confers superior cardiovascular health benefits to moderate intensity continuous training (MICT) in adults and may be efficacious for improving diminished cardiac function in obese children. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of HIIT, MICT and nutrition advice interventions on resting left ventricular (LV) peak systolic tissue velocity (S') in obese children. Ninety-nine obese children were randomised into one of three 12-week interventions, 1) HIIT [n = 33, 4 × 4 min bouts at 85-95% maximum heart rate (HR max ), 3 times/week] and nutrition advice, 2) MICT [n = 32, 44 min at 60-70% HR max , 3 times/week] and nutrition advice, and 3) nutrition advice only (nutrition) [n = 34]. Twelve weeks of HIIT and MICT were equally efficacious, but superior to nutrition, for normalising resting LV S' in children with obesity (estimated mean difference 1.0 cm/s, 95% confidence interval 0.5 to 1.6 cm/s, P HIIT and MICT were superior to nutrition advice only for improving resting LV systolic function in obese children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The confidence of speech-language pathology students regarding communicating with people with aphasia

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Aphasia is an acquired language disorder that can present a significant barrier to patient involvement in healthcare decisions. Speech-language pathologists (SLPs) are viewed as experts in the field of communication. However, many SLP students do not receive practical training in techniques to communicate with people with aphasia (PWA) until they encounter PWA during clinical education placements. Methods This study investigated the confidence and knowledge of SLP students in communicating with PWA prior to clinical placements using a customised questionnaire. Confidence in communicating with people with aphasia was assessed using a 100-point visual analogue scale. Linear, and logistic, regressions were used to examine the association between confidence and age, as well as confidence and course type (graduate-entry masters or undergraduate), respectively. Knowledge of strategies to assist communication with PWA was examined by asking respondents to list specific strategies that could assist communication with PWA. Results SLP students were not confident with the prospect of communicating with PWA; reporting a median 29-points (inter-quartile range 17–47) on the visual analogue confidence scale. Only, four (8.2%) of respondents rated their confidence greater than 55 (out of 100). Regression analyses indicated no relationship existed between confidence and students‘ age (p = 0.31, r-squared = 0.02), or confidence and course type (p = 0.22, pseudo r-squared = 0.03). Students displayed limited knowledge about communication strategies. Thematic analysis of strategies revealed four overarching themes; Physical, Verbal Communication, Visual Information and Environmental Changes. While most students identified potential use of resources (such as images and written information), fewer students identified strategies to alter their verbal communication (such as reduced speech rate). Conclusions SLP students who had received aphasia related

The confidence of speech-language pathology students regarding communicating with people with aphasia.