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Sample records for confidence coefficient

  1. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  2. Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

  3. Comparing confidence intervals for Goodman and Kruskal's gamma coefficient

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Ark, L.A.; van Aert, R.C.M.

    2015-01-01

    This study was motivated by the question which type of confidence interval (CI) one should use to summarize sample variance of Goodman and Kruskal's coefficient gamma. In a Monte-Carlo study, we investigated the coverage and computation time of the Goodman-Kruskal CI, the Cliff-consistent CI, the

  4. The 95% confidence intervals of error rates and discriminant coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuichi Shinmura

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Fisher proposed a linear discriminant function (Fisher’s LDF. From 1971, we analysed electrocardiogram (ECG data in order to develop the diagnostic logic between normal and abnormal symptoms by Fisher’s LDF and a quadratic discriminant function (QDF. Our four years research was inferior to the decision tree logic developed by the medical doctor. After this experience, we discriminated many data and found four problems of the discriminant analysis. A revised Optimal LDF by Integer Programming (Revised IP-OLDF based on the minimum number of misclassification (minimum NM criterion resolves three problems entirely [13, 18]. In this research, we discuss fourth problem of the discriminant analysis. There are no standard errors (SEs of the error rate and discriminant coefficient. We propose a k-fold crossvalidation method. This method offers a model selection technique and a 95% confidence intervals (C.I. of error rates and discriminant coefficients.

  5. Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

    2007-01-01

    For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations.

  6. Confidence bounds and hypothesis tests for normal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve P. Verrill; Richard A. Johnson

    2007-01-01

    For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations. To develop these confidence bounds and test, we first establish that estimators based on Newton steps from n-...

  7. Large Sample Confidence Intervals for Item Response Theory Reliability Coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Björn; Xin, Tao

    2018-01-01

    In applications of item response theory (IRT), an estimate of the reliability of the ability estimates or sum scores is often reported. However, analytical expressions for the standard errors of the estimators of the reliability coefficients are not available in the literature and therefore the variability associated with the estimated reliability…

  8. Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

    2012-11-01

    Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  9. Comparing confidence intervals for Goodman and Kruskal’s gamma coefficient

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Ark, L.A.; van Aert, R.C.M.

    2015-01-01

    This study was motivated by the question which type of confidence interval (CI) one should use to summarize sample variance of Goodman and Kruskal's coefficient gamma. In a Monte-Carlo study, we investigated the coverage and computation time of the Goodman–Kruskal CI, the Cliff-consistent CI, the

  10. A comparison of confidence interval methods for the concordance correlation coefficient and intraclass correlation coefficient with small number of raters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Dai; Svetnik, Vladimir; Coimbra, Alexandre; Baumgartner, Richard

    2014-01-01

    The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) with fixed raters or, equivalently, the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) for continuous outcomes is a widely accepted aggregate index of agreement in settings with small number of raters. Quantifying the precision of the CCC by constructing its confidence interval (CI) is important in early drug development applications, in particular in qualification of biomarker platforms. In recent years, there have been several new methods proposed for construction of CIs for the CCC, but their comprehensive comparison has not been attempted. The methods consisted of the delta method and jackknifing with and without Fisher's Z-transformation, respectively, and Bayesian methods with vague priors. In this study, we carried out a simulation study, with data simulated from multivariate normal as well as heavier tailed distribution (t-distribution with 5 degrees of freedom), to compare the state-of-the-art methods for assigning CI to the CCC. When the data are normally distributed, the jackknifing with Fisher's Z-transformation (JZ) tended to provide superior coverage and the difference between it and the closest competitor, the Bayesian method with the Jeffreys prior was in general minimal. For the nonnormal data, the jackknife methods, especially the JZ method, provided the coverage probabilities closest to the nominal in contrast to the others which yielded overly liberal coverage. Approaches based upon the delta method and Bayesian method with conjugate prior generally provided slightly narrower intervals and larger lower bounds than others, though this was offset by their poor coverage. Finally, we illustrated the utility of the CIs for the CCC in an example of a wake after sleep onset (WASO) biomarker, which is frequently used in clinical sleep studies of drugs for treatment of insomnia.

  11. R package to estimate intracluster correlation coefficient with confidence interval for binary data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Hrishikesh; Hossain, Akhtar

    2018-03-01

    The Intracluster Correlation Coefficient (ICC) is a major parameter of interest in cluster randomized trials that measures the degree to which responses within the same cluster are correlated. There are several types of ICC estimators and its confidence intervals (CI) suggested in the literature for binary data. Studies have compared relative weaknesses and advantages of ICC estimators as well as its CI for binary data and suggested situations where one is advantageous in practical research. The commonly used statistical computing systems currently facilitate estimation of only a very few variants of ICC and its CI. To address the limitations of current statistical packages, we developed an R package, ICCbin, to facilitate estimating ICC and its CI for binary responses using different methods. The ICCbin package is designed to provide estimates of ICC in 16 different ways including analysis of variance methods, moments based estimation, direct probabilistic methods, correlation based estimation, and resampling method. CI of ICC is estimated using 5 different methods. It also generates cluster binary data using exchangeable correlation structure. ICCbin package provides two functions for users. The function rcbin() generates cluster binary data and the function iccbin() estimates ICC and it's CI. The users can choose appropriate ICC and its CI estimate from the wide selection of estimates from the outputs. The R package ICCbin presents very flexible and easy to use ways to generate cluster binary data and to estimate ICC and it's CI for binary response using different methods. The package ICCbin is freely available for use with R from the CRAN repository (https://cran.r-project.org/package=ICCbin). We believe that this package can be a very useful tool for researchers to design cluster randomized trials with binary outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

    2017-10-01

    The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

  13. A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

    2016-04-01

    Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith

  14. Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals with Outlying Observations and Missing Data: Methods and Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

    2016-01-01

    Cronbach's coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald's omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation…

  15. Robust Coefficients Alpha and Omega and Confidence Intervals with Outlying Observations and Missing Data Methods and Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Ke-Hai

    2016-01-01

    Cronbach's coefficient alpha is a widely used reliability measure in social, behavioral, and education sciences. It is reported in nearly every study that involves measuring a construct through multiple items. With non-tau-equivalent items, McDonald's omega has been used as a popular alternative to alpha in the literature. Traditional estimation…

  16. AlphaCI: un programa de cálculo de intervalos de confianza para el coeficiente alfa de Cronbach AlphaCI: a computer program for computing confidence intervals around Cronbach's alfa coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubén Ledesma

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available El coeficiente alfa de Cronbach es el modo más habitual de estimar la fiabilidad de pruebas basadas en Teoría Clásica de los Test. En dicha estimación, los investigadores usualmente omiten informar intervalos de confianza para el coeficiente, un aspecto no solo recomendado por los especialistas, sino también requerido explícitamente en las normas editoriales de algunas revistas especializadas. Esta situación puede atribuirse a que los métodos de estimación de intervalos de confianza son poco conocidos, además de no estar disponibles al usuario en los programas estadísticos más populares. Así, en este trabajo se presenta un programa desarrollado dentro del sistema estadístico ViSta que permite calcular intervalos de confianza basados en el enfoque clásico y mediante la técnica bootstrap. Se espera promover la inclusión de intervalos de confianza para medidas de fiabilidad, facilitando el acceso a las herramientas necesarias para su aplicación. El programa es gratuito y puede obtenerse enviando un mail de solicitud al autor del trabajo.Cronbach's alpha coefficient is the most popular way of estimating reliability in measurement scales based on Classic Test Theory. When estimating it, researchers usually omit to report confidence intervals of this coefficient, as it is not only recommended by experts, but also required by some journal's guidelines. This situation is because the different methods of estimating confidence intervals are not well-known by researchers, as well as they are not being available among the most popular statistical packages. Therefore, this paper describes a computer program integrated into the ViSta statistical system, which allows computing confidence intervals based on the classical approach and using bootstrap technique. It is hoped that this work promotes the inclusion of confidence intervals of reliability measures, by increasing the availability of the required computer tools. The program is free and

  17. Using the confidence interval confidently.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Avijit

    2017-10-01

    Biomedical research is seldom done with entire populations but rather with samples drawn from a population. Although we work with samples, our goal is to describe and draw inferences regarding the underlying population. It is possible to use a sample statistic and estimates of error in the sample to get a fair idea of the population parameter, not as a single value, but as a range of values. This range is the confidence interval (CI) which is estimated on the basis of a desired confidence level. Calculation of the CI of a sample statistic takes the general form: CI = Point estimate ± Margin of error, where the margin of error is given by the product of a critical value (z) derived from the standard normal curve and the standard error of point estimate. Calculation of the standard error varies depending on whether the sample statistic of interest is a mean, proportion, odds ratio (OR), and so on. The factors affecting the width of the CI include the desired confidence level, the sample size and the variability in the sample. Although the 95% CI is most often used in biomedical research, a CI can be calculated for any level of confidence. A 99% CI will be wider than 95% CI for the same sample. Conflict between clinical importance and statistical significance is an important issue in biomedical research. Clinical importance is best inferred by looking at the effect size, that is how much is the actual change or difference. However, statistical significance in terms of P only suggests whether there is any difference in probability terms. Use of the CI supplements the P value by providing an estimate of actual clinical effect. Of late, clinical trials are being designed specifically as superiority, non-inferiority or equivalence studies. The conclusions from these alternative trial designs are based on CI values rather than the P value from intergroup comparison.

  18. Confidant Relations in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Isaacs

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

  19. Confidence Intervals for Omega Coefficient: Proposal for Calculus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura-León, José Luis

    2018-01-01

    La confiabilidad es entendida como una propiedad métrica de las puntuaciones de un instrumento de medida. Recientemente se viene utilizando el coeficiente omega (ω) para la estimación de la confiabilidad. No obstante, la medición nunca es exacta por la influencia del error aleatorio, por esa razón es necesario calcular y reportar el intervalo de confianza (IC) que permite encontrar en valor verdadero en un rango de medida. En ese contexto, el artículo plantea una forma de estimar el IC mediante el método de bootstrap para facilitar este procedimiento se brindan códigos de R (un software de acceso libre) para que puedan realizarse los cálculos de una forma amigable. Se espera que el artículo sirva de ayuda a los investigadores de ámbito de salud.

  20. Raising Confident Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... First Aid & Safety Doctors & Hospitals Videos Recipes for Kids Kids site Sitio para niños How the Body ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Raising Confident Kids KidsHealth / For Parents / Raising Confident Kids What's in ...

  1. The Model Confidence Set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

    The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS......, beyond the comparison of models. We apply the MCS procedure to two empirical problems. First, we revisit the inflation forecasting problem posed by Stock and Watson (1999), and compute the MCS for their set of inflation forecasts. Second, we compare a number of Taylor rule regressions and determine...... the MCS of the best in terms of in-sample likelihood criteria....

  2. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  3. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-01-01

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to ''forecast,'' that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists ''think.'' This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. ''Confidence'' derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  4. Globalization of consumer confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Çelik Sadullah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The globalization of world economies and the importance of nowcasting analysis have been at the core of the recent literature. Nevertheless, these two strands of research are hardly coupled. This study aims to fill this gap through examining the globalization of the consumer confidence index (CCI by applying conventional and unconventional econometric methods. The US CCI is used as the benchmark in tests of comovement among the CCIs of several developing and developed countries, with the data sets divided into three sub-periods: global liquidity abundance, the Great Recession, and postcrisis. The existence and/or degree of globalization of the CCIs vary according to the period, whereas globalization in the form of coherence and similar paths is observed only during the Great Recession and, surprisingly, stronger in developing/emerging countries.

  5. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  6. The idiosyncratic nature of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navajas, Joaquin; Hindocha, Chandni; Foda, Hebah; Keramati, Mehdi; Latham, Peter E; Bahrami, Bahador

    2017-11-01

    Confidence is the 'feeling of knowing' that accompanies decision making. Bayesian theory proposes that confidence is a function solely of the perceived probability of being correct. Empirical research has suggested, however, that different individuals may perform different computations to estimate confidence from uncertain evidence. To test this hypothesis, we collected confidence reports in a task where subjects made categorical decisions about the mean of a sequence. We found that for most individuals, confidence did indeed reflect the perceived probability of being correct. However, in approximately half of them, confidence also reflected a different probabilistic quantity: the perceived uncertainty in the estimated variable. We found that the contribution of both quantities was stable over weeks. We also observed that the influence of the perceived probability of being correct was stable across two tasks, one perceptual and one cognitive. Overall, our findings provide a computational interpretation of individual differences in human confidence.

  7. Diverse interpretations of confidence building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macintosh, J.

    1998-01-01

    This paper explores the variety of operational understandings associated with the term 'confidence building'. Collectively, these understandings constitute what should be thought of as a 'family' of confidence building approaches. This unacknowledged and generally unappreciated proliferation of operational understandings that function under the rubric of confidence building appears to be an impediment to effective policy. The paper's objective is to analyze these different understandings, stressing the important differences in their underlying assumptions. In the process, the paper underlines the need for the international community to clarify its collective thinking about what it means when it speaks of 'confidence building'. Without enhanced clarity, it will be unnecessarily difficult to employ the confidence building approach effectively due to the lack of consistent objectives and common operating assumptions. Although it is not the intention of this paper to promote a particular account of confidence building, dissecting existing operational understandings should help to identify whether there are fundamental elements that define what might be termed 'authentic' confidence building. Implicit here is the view that some operational understandings of confidence building may diverge too far from consensus models to count as meaningful members of the confidence building family. (author)

  8. Nuclear power: restoring public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, L.

    1986-01-01

    The paper concerns a one day conference on nuclear power organised by the Centre for Science Studies and Science Policy, Lancaster, April 1986. Following the Chernobyl reactor accident, the conference concentrated on public confidence in nuclear power. Causes of lack of public confidence, public perceptions of risk, and the effect of Chernobyl in the United Kingdom, were all discussed. A Select Committee on the Environment examined the problems of radioactive waste disposal. (U.K.)

  9. Confidence in critical care nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jeanne; Bell, Jennifer L; Sweeney, Annemarie E; Morgan, Jennifer I; Kelly, Helen M

    2010-10-01

    The purpose of the study was to gain an understanding of the nursing phenomenon, confidence, from the experience of nurses in the nursing subculture of critical care. Leininger's theory of cultural care diversity and universality guided this qualitative descriptive study. Questions derived from the sunrise model were used to elicit nurses' perspectives about cultural and social structures that exist within the critical care nursing subculture and the influence that these factors have on confidence. Twenty-eight critical care nurses from a large Canadian healthcare organization participated in semistructured interviews about confidence. Five themes arose from the descriptions provided by the participants. The three themes, tenuously navigating initiation rituals, deliberately developing holistic supportive relationships, and assimilating clinical decision-making rules were identified as social and cultural factors related to confidence. The remaining two themes, preserving a sense of security despite barriers and accommodating to diverse challenges, were identified as environmental factors related to confidence. Practice and research implications within the culture of critical care nursing are discussed in relation to each of the themes.

  10. Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

    2012-03-01

    Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

  11. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  12. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  13. Methodology for building confidence measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramson, Aaron L.

    2004-04-01

    This paper presents a generalized methodology for propagating known or estimated levels of individual source document truth reliability to determine the confidence level of a combined output. Initial document certainty levels are augmented by (i) combining the reliability measures of multiply sources, (ii) incorporating the truth reinforcement of related elements, and (iii) incorporating the importance of the individual elements for determining the probability of truth for the whole. The result is a measure of confidence in system output based on the establishing of links among the truth values of inputs. This methodology was developed for application to a multi-component situation awareness tool under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory in Rome, New York. Determining how improvements in data quality and the variety of documents collected affect the probability of a correct situational detection helps optimize the performance of the tool overall.

  14. Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Le Heron

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

  15. Leadership by Confidence in Teams

    OpenAIRE

    Kobayashi, Hajime; Suehiro, Hideo

    2008-01-01

    We study endogenous signaling by analyzing a team production problem with endogenous timing. Each agent of the team is privately endowed with some level of confidence about team productivity. Each of them must then commit a level of effort in one of two periods. At the end of each period, each agent observes his partner' s move in this period. Both agents are rewarded by a team output determined by team productivity and total invested effort. Each agent must personally incur the cost of effor...

  16. Towards confidence in transport safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robison, R.W.

    1992-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) plans to demonstrate to the public that high-level waste can be transported safely to the proposed repository. The author argues US DOE should begin now to demonstrate its commitment to safety by developing an extraordinary safety program for nuclear cargo it is now shipping. The program for current shipments should be developed with State, Tribal, and local officials. Social scientists should be involved in evaluating the effect of the safety program on public confidence. The safety program developed in cooperation with western states for shipments to the Waste Isolation Pilot plant is a good basis for designing that extraordinary safety program

  17. Workshop on confidence limits. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, F.; Lyons, L.; Perrin, Y.

    2000-01-01

    The First Workshop on Confidence Limits was held at CERN on 17-18 January 2000. It was devoted to the problem of setting confidence limits in difficult cases: number of observed events is small or zero, background is larger than signal, background not well known, and measurements near a physical boundary. Among the many examples in high-energy physics are searches for the Higgs, searches for neutrino oscillations, B s mixing, SUSY, compositeness, neutrino masses, and dark matter. Several different methods are on the market: the CL s methods used by the LEP Higgs searches; Bayesian methods; Feldman-Cousins and modifications thereof; empirical and combined methods. The Workshop generated considerable interest, and attendance was finally limited by the seating capacity of the CERN Council Chamber where all the sessions took place. These proceedings contain all the papers presented, as well as the full text of the discussions after each paper and of course the last session which was a discussion session. The list of participants and the 'required reading', which was expected to be part of the prior knowledge of all participants, are also included. (orig.)

  18. The Great Recession and confidence in homeownership

    OpenAIRE

    Anat Bracha; Julian Jamison

    2013-01-01

    Confidence in homeownership shifts for those who personally experienced real estate loss during the Great Recession. Older Americans are confident in the value of homeownership. Younger Americans are less confident.

  19. Public confidence and nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaussade, J.P.

    1990-01-01

    Today in France there are 54 nuclear power units in operation at 18 sites. They supply 75% of all electricity produced, 12% of which is exported to neighbouring countries, and play an important role in the French economy. For the French, nuclear power is a fact of life, and most accept it. However, the accident of Chernobyl has made public opinion more sensitive, and the public relations work has had to be reconsidered carefully with a view to increase the confidence of the French public in nuclear power, anticipating media crises and being equipped to deal with such crises. The three main approaches are the following: keeping the public better informed, providing clear information at time of crisis and international activities

  20. Knowledge, Self Confidence and Courage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selberg, Hanne; Steenberg Holtzmann, Jette; Hovedskov, Jette

    . Results The students identified their major learning outcomes as transfer of operational skills, experiencing self-efficacy and enhanced understanding of the patients' perspective.Involving simulated patients in the training of technical skills contributed to the development of the students' communication......Knowledge, self confidence and courage – long lasting learning outcomes through simulation in a clinical context. Hanne Selberg1, Jette Hovedskov2, Jette Steenberg Holtzmann2 The significance and methodology of the researchThe study focuses on simulation alongside the clinical practice and linked...... Development, Clinical Lecturer, Metropolitan University College, Faculty of Nursing, Email: hase@phoe.dk, phone: +45-72282830. 2. Jette Hovedskov, RN, Development Consultant, Glostrup University Hospital, Department of Development Email : jeho@glo.regionh.dk ,phone: +45- 43232090 3. Jette Holtzmann Steenberg...

  1. Confidence building in safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grundfelt, Bertil

    1999-01-01

    Future generations should be adequately protected from damage caused by the present disposal of radioactive waste. This presentation discusses the core of safety and performance assessment: The demonstration and building of confidence that the disposal system meets the safety requirements stipulated by society. The major difficulty is to deal with risks in the very long time perspective of the thousands of years during which the waste is hazardous. Concern about these problems has stimulated the development of the safety assessment discipline. The presentation concentrates on two of the elements of safety assessment: (1) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and (2) validation and review. Uncertainty is associated both with respect to what is the proper conceptual model and with respect to parameter values for a given model. A special kind of uncertainty derives from the variation of a property in space. Geostatistics is one approach to handling spatial variability. The simplest way of doing a sensitivity analysis is to offset the model parameters one by one and observe how the model output changes. The validity of the models and data used to make predictions is central to the credibility of safety assessments for radioactive waste repositories. There are several definitions of model validation. The presentation discusses it as a process and highlights some aspects of validation methodologies

  2. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-10-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

  3. High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

  4. Transport Coefficients of Fluids

    CERN Document Server

    Eu, Byung Chan

    2006-01-01

    Until recently the formal statistical mechanical approach offered no practicable method for computing the transport coefficients of liquids, and so most practitioners had to resort to empirical fitting formulas. This has now changed, as demonstrated in this innovative monograph. The author presents and applies new methods based on statistical mechanics for calculating the transport coefficients of simple and complex liquids over wide ranges of density and temperature. These molecular theories enable the transport coefficients to be calculated in terms of equilibrium thermodynamic properties, and the results are shown to account satisfactorily for experimental observations, including even the non-Newtonian behavior of fluids far from equilibrium.

  5. Confidence Building Strategies in the Public Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achilles, C. M.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Data from the Phi Delta Kappa Commission on Public Confidence in Education indicate that "high-confidence" schools make greater use of marketing and public relations strategies. Teacher attitudes were ranked first and administrator attitudes second by 409 respondents for both gain and loss of confidence in schools. (MLF)

  6. An Investigation of the Sampling Distributions of Equating Coefficients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Frank B.

    1996-01-01

    Using the characteristic curve method for dichotomously scored test items, the sampling distributions of equating coefficients were examined. Simulations indicate that for the equating conditions studied, the sampling distributions of the equating coefficients appear to have acceptable characteristics, suggesting confidence in the values obtained…

  7. Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

    2012-08-01

    Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

  8. Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

  9. Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

  10. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Oshins

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  11. Consumer confidence or the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low...

  12. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  13. Confidence Interval Approximation For Treatment Variance In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In a random effects model with a single factor, variation is partitioned into two as residual error variance and treatment variance. While a confidence interval can be imposed on the residual error variance, it is not possible to construct an exact confidence interval for the treatment variance. This is because the treatment ...

  14. Aging and Confidence Judgments in Item Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskuilen, Chelsea; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2018-01-01

    We examined the effects of aging on performance in an item-recognition experiment with confidence judgments. A model for confidence judgments and response time (RTs; Ratcliff & Starns, 2013) was used to fit a large amount of data from a new sample of older adults and a previously reported sample of younger adults. This model of confidence…

  15. Organic labbeling systems and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Daugbjerg, Carsten

    2009-01-01

    A research analysis suggests that a state certification and labelling system creates confidence in organic labelling systems and consequently green consumerism. Danish consumers have higher levels of confidence in the labelling system than consumers in countries where the state plays a minor role in labelling and certification.

  16. Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleitman Sabina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

  17. Attenuation coefficients of soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martini, E.; Naziry, M.J.

    1989-01-01

    As a prerequisite to the interpretation of gamma-spectrometric in situ measurements of activity concentrations of soil radionuclides the attenuation of 60 to 1332 keV gamma radiation by soil samples varying in water content and density has been investigated. A useful empirical equation could be set up to describe the dependence of the mass attenuation coefficient upon photon energy for soil with a mean water content of 10%, with the results comparing well with data in the literature. The mean density of soil in the GDR was estimated at 1.6 g/cm 3 . This value was used to derive the linear attenuation coefficients, their range of variation being 10%. 7 figs., 5 tabs. (author)

  18. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

    2010-01-01

    Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

  20. Confidence building in implementation of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, Hiroyuki

    2004-01-01

    Long-term safety of the disposal system should be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the stakeholders. Convincing arguments are therefore required that instil in the stakeholders confidence in the safety of a particular concept for the siting and design of a geological disposal, given the uncertainties that inevitably exist in its a priori description and in its evolution. The step-wise approach associated with making safety case at each stage is a key to building confidence in the repository development programme. This paper discusses aspects and issues on confidence building in the implementation of HLW disposal in Japan. (author)

  1. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health......This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

  2. The Truth About Ballistic Coefficients

    OpenAIRE

    Courtney, Michael; Courtney, Amy

    2007-01-01

    The ballistic coefficient of a bullet describes how it slows in flight due to air resistance. This article presents experimental determinations of ballistic coefficients showing that the majority of bullets tested have their previously published ballistic coefficients exaggerated from 5-25% by the bullet manufacturers. These exaggerated ballistic coefficients lead to inaccurate predictions of long range bullet drop, retained energy and wind drift.

  3. An Exact Confidence Region in Multivariate Calibration

    OpenAIRE

    Mathew, Thomas; Kasala, Subramanyam

    1994-01-01

    In the multivariate calibration problem using a multivariate linear model, an exact confidence region is constructed. It is shown that the region is always nonempty and is invariant under nonsingular transformations.

  4. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  5. Confidence bands for inverse regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birke, Melanie; Bissantz, Nicolai; Holzmann, Hajo

    2010-01-01

    We construct uniform confidence bands for the regression function in inverse, homoscedastic regression models with convolution-type operators. Here, the convolution is between two non-periodic functions on the whole real line rather than between two periodic functions on a compact interval, since the former situation arguably arises more often in applications. First, following Bickel and Rosenblatt (1973 Ann. Stat. 1 1071–95) we construct asymptotic confidence bands which are based on strong approximations and on a limit theorem for the supremum of a stationary Gaussian process. Further, we propose bootstrap confidence bands based on the residual bootstrap and prove consistency of the bootstrap procedure. A simulation study shows that the bootstrap confidence bands perform reasonably well for moderate sample sizes. Finally, we apply our method to data from a gel electrophoresis experiment with genetically engineered neuronal receptor subunits incubated with rat brain extract

  6. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movem...

  7. How do regulators measure public confidence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, A.; Besenyei, E.

    2006-01-01

    The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. - There are some important elements of confidence: visibility, satisfaction, credibility and reputation. The latter can consist of trust, positive image and knowledge of the role the organisation plays. A good reputation is hard to achieve but easy to lose. - There is a need to define what public confidence is and what to measure. The difficulty is that confidence is a matter of perception of the public, so what we try to measure is the perception. - It is controversial how to take into account the results of confidence measurement because of the influence of the context. It is not an exact science, results should be examined cautiously and surveys should be conducted frequently, at least every two years. - Different experiences were explained: - Quantitative surveys - among the general public or more specific groups like the media; - Qualitative research - with test groups and small panels; - Semi-quantitative studies - among stakeholders who have regular contracts with the regulatory body. It is not clear if the results should be shared with the public or just with other authorities and governmental organisations. - Efforts are needed to increase visibility, which is a prerequisite for confidence. - A practical example of organizing an emergency exercise and an information campaign without taking into account the real concerns of the people was given to show how public confidence can be decreased. - We learned about a new method - the so-called socio-drama - which addresses another issue also connected to confidence - the notion of understanding between stakeholders around a nuclear site. It is another way of looking at confidence in a more restricted group. (authors)

  8. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  9. [Sources of leader's confidence in organizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Hiroshi; Furukawa, Hisataka

    2006-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the sources of confidence that organization leaders had. As potential sources of the confidence, we focused on fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, reflection on good as well as bad job experiences, and awareness of job experiences in terms of commonality, differentiation, and multiple viewpoints. A questionnaire was administered to 170 managers of Japanese companies. Results were as follows: First, confidence in leaders was more strongly related to fulfillment of expectations made by self and others than reflection on and awareness of job experiences. Second, the confidence was weakly related to internal processing of job experiences, in the form of commonality awareness and reflection on good job experiences. And finally, years of managerial experiences had almost no relation to the confidence. These findings suggested that confidence in leaders was directly acquired from fulfillment of expectations made by self and others, rather than indirectly through internal processing of job experiences. Implications of the findings for leadership training were also discussed.

  10. Tests and Confidence Intervals for an Extended Variance Component Using the Modified Likelihood Ratio Statistic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Frydenberg, Morten; Jensen, Jens Ledet

    2005-01-01

    The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented......, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient....

  11. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  12. Comparison of field-measured radon diffusion coefficients with laboratory-measured coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lepel, E.A.; Silker, W.B.; Thomas, V.W.; Kalkwarf, D.R.

    1983-04-01

    Experiments were conducted to compare radon diffusion coefficients determined for 0.1-m depths of soils by a steady-state method in the laboratory and diffusion coefficients evaluated from radon fluxes through several-fold greater depths of the same soils covering uranium-mill tailings. The coefficients referred to diffusion in the total pore volume of the soils and are equivalent to values for the quantity, D/P, in the Generic Environmental Impact Statement on Uranium Milling prepared by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Two soils were tested: a well-graded sand and an inorganic clay of low plasticity. For the flux evaluations, radon was collected by adsorption on charcoal following passive diffusion from the soil surface and also from air recirculating through an aluminum tent over the soil surface. An analysis of variance in the flux evaluations showed no significant difference between these two collection methods. Radon diffusion coefficients evaluated from field data were statistically indistinguishable, at the 95% confidence level, from those measured in the laboratory; however, the low precision of the field data prevented a sensitive validation of the laboratory measurements. From the field data, the coefficients were calculated to be 0.03 +- 0.03 cm 2 /s for the sand cover and 0.0036 +- 0.0004 cm 2 /s for the clay cover. The low precision in the coefficients evaluated from field data was attributed to high variation in radon flux with time and surface location at the field site

  13. Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cleminson, F.R. [Dept. of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Verification, Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament Div (IDA), Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    1998-07-01

    Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

  14. Confidence Leak in Perceptual Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D'Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-11-01

    People live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a continuity field in which objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of metacognitive representations. In three experiments, we demonstrated a robust intertask confidence leak-that is, confidence in one's response on a given task or trial influencing confidence on the following task or trial. This confidence leak could not be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Better ability to modulate confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in the prefrontal cortex. © The Author(s) 2015.

  15. ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luis, Gache

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

  16. Confidence-building and Canadian leadership

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleminson, F.R.

    1998-01-01

    Confidence-building has come into its own as a 'tool of choice' in facilitating the non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament (NACD) agenda, whether regional or global. From the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) to the ASEAN Intersessional Group on Confidence-Building (ARF ISG on CBMS), confidence-building has assumed a central profile in regional terms. In the Four Power Talks begun in Geneva on December 9, 1997, the United States identified confidence-building as one of two subject areas for initial discussion as part of a structured peace process between North and South Korea. Thus, with CBMs assuming such a high profile internationally, it seems prudent for Canadians to pause and take stock of the significant role which Canada has already played in the conceptual development of the process over the last two decades. Since the Helsinki accords of 1975, Canada has developed a significant expertise in this area through an unbroken series of original, basic research projects. These have contributed to defining the process internationally from concept to implementation. Today, these studies represent a solid and unique Departmental investment in basic research from which to draw in meeting Canada's current commitments to multilateral initiatives in the area of confidence-building and to provide a 'step up' in terms of future-oriented leadership. (author)

  17. Correlation Coefficients: Appropriate Use and Interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schober, Patrick; Boer, Christa; Schwarte, Lothar A

    2018-05-01

    Correlation in the broadest sense is a measure of an association between variables. In correlated data, the change in the magnitude of 1 variable is associated with a change in the magnitude of another variable, either in the same (positive correlation) or in the opposite (negative correlation) direction. Most often, the term correlation is used in the context of a linear relationship between 2 continuous variables and expressed as Pearson product-moment correlation. The Pearson correlation coefficient is typically used for jointly normally distributed data (data that follow a bivariate normal distribution). For nonnormally distributed continuous data, for ordinal data, or for data with relevant outliers, a Spearman rank correlation can be used as a measure of a monotonic association. Both correlation coefficients are scaled such that they range from -1 to +1, where 0 indicates that there is no linear or monotonic association, and the relationship gets stronger and ultimately approaches a straight line (Pearson correlation) or a constantly increasing or decreasing curve (Spearman correlation) as the coefficient approaches an absolute value of 1. Hypothesis tests and confidence intervals can be used to address the statistical significance of the results and to estimate the strength of the relationship in the population from which the data were sampled. The aim of this tutorial is to guide researchers and clinicians in the appropriate use and interpretation of correlation coefficients.

  18. High confidence in falsely recognizing prototypical faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Cristina; Reinke, Victoria; Mathews, Jeffrey; Swart, Alexandra; Wallinger, Stephen

    2018-06-01

    We applied a metacognitive approach to investigate confidence in recognition of prototypical faces. Participants were presented with sets of faces constructed digitally as deviations from prototype/base faces. Participants were then tested with a simple recognition task (Experiment 1) or a multiple-choice task (Experiment 2) for old and new items plus new prototypes, and they showed a high rate of confident false alarms to the prototypes. Confidence and accuracy relationship in this face recognition paradigm was found to be positive for standard items but negative for the prototypes; thus, it was contingent on the nature of the items used. The data have implications for lineups that employ match-to-suspect strategies.

  19. A systematic review of maternal confidence for physiologic birth: characteristics of prenatal care and confidence measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery, Melissa D; Saftner, Melissa A; Larson, Bridget; Weinfurter, Elizabeth V

    2014-01-01

    Because a focus on physiologic labor and birth has reemerged in recent years, care providers have the opportunity in the prenatal period to help women increase confidence in their ability to give birth without unnecessary interventions. However, most research has only examined support for women during labor. The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the research literature for information about prenatal care approaches that increase women's confidence for physiologic labor and birth and tools to measure that confidence. Studies were reviewed that explored any element of a pregnant woman's interaction with her prenatal care provider that helped build confidence in her ability to labor and give birth. Timing of interaction with pregnant women included during pregnancy, labor and birth, and the postpartum period. In addition, we looked for studies that developed a measure of women's confidence related to labor and birth. Outcome measures included confidence or similar concepts, descriptions of components of prenatal care contributing to maternal confidence for birth, and reliability and validity of tools measuring confidence. The search of MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus databases provided a total of 893 citations. After removing duplicates and articles that did not meet inclusion criteria, 6 articles were included in the review. Three relate to women's confidence for labor during the prenatal period, and 3 describe tools to measure women's confidence for birth. Research about enhancing women's confidence for labor and birth was limited to qualitative studies. Results suggest that women desire information during pregnancy and want to use that information to participate in care decisions in a relationship with a trusted provider. Further research is needed to develop interventions to help midwives and physicians enhance women's confidence in their ability to give birth and to develop a tool to measure confidence for use during prenatal care. © 2014 by

  20. Confidence building - is science the only approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bragg, K.

    1990-01-01

    The Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) has begun to develop some simplified methods to determine if it is possible to provide confidence that dose, risk and environmental criteria can be respected without undue reliance on detailed scientific models. The progress to date will be outlined and the merits of this new approach will be compared to the more complex, traditional approach. Stress will be given to generating confidence in both technical and non-technical communities as well as the need to enhance communication between them. 3 refs., 1 tab

  1. Self Confidence Spillovers and Motivated Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banerjee, Ritwik; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Villeval, Marie Claire

    that success when competing in a task increases the performers’ self-confidence and competitiveness in the subsequent task. We also find that such spillovers affect the self-confidence of low-status individuals more than that of high-status individuals. Receiving good news under Affirmative Action, however......Is success in a task used strategically by individuals to motivate their beliefs prior to taking action in a subsequent, unrelated, task? Also, is the distortion of beliefs reinforced for individuals who have lower status in society? Conducting an artefactual field experiment in India, we show...

  2. On the Kendall Correlation Coefficient

    OpenAIRE

    Stepanov, Alexei

    2015-01-01

    In the present paper, we first discuss the Kendall rank correlation coefficient. In continuous case, we define the Kendall rank correlation coefficient in terms of the concomitants of order statistics, find the expected value of the Kendall rank correlation coefficient and show that the later is free of n. We also prove that in continuous case the Kendall correlation coefficient converges in probability to its expected value. We then propose to consider the expected value of the Kendall rank ...

  3. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  4. Principles of psychological confidence of NPP operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpeev, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    The problems of operator interaction with subsystems supporting his activity are discussed from the point of view of formation of his psychological confidence on the basis of the automation intellectual means capabilities. The functions of operator activity supporting subsystems, which realization will provide to decrease greatly the portion of accidents at NPPs connected with mistakes in operator actions, are derived. 6 refs

  5. Growing confidence, building skills | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    In 2012 Rashid explored the influence of think tanks on policy in Bangladesh, as well as their relationships with international donors and media. In 2014, he explored two-way student exchanges between Canadian and ... his IDRC experience “gave me the confidence to conduct high quality research in social sciences.”.

  6. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jaeger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

  7. Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…

  8. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  9. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  10. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

  11. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaacs, T

    2002-01-01

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

  12. Empirical evidence for site coefficients in building code provisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, R.D.

    2002-01-01

    Site-response coefficients, Fa and Fv, used in U.S. building code provisions are based on empirical data for motions up to 0.1 g. For larger motions they are based on theoretical and laboratory results. The Northridge earthquake of 17 January 1994 provided a significant new set of empirical data up to 0.5 g. These data together with recent site characterizations based on shear-wave velocity measurements provide empirical estimates of the site coefficients at base accelerations up to 0.5 g for Site Classes C and D. These empirical estimates of Fa and Fnu; as well as their decrease with increasing base acceleration level are consistent at the 95 percent confidence level with those in present building code provisions, with the exception of estimates for Fa at levels of 0.1 and 0.2 g, which are less than the lower confidence bound by amounts up to 13 percent. The site-coefficient estimates are consistent at the 95 percent confidence level with those of several other investigators for base accelerations greater than 0.3 g. These consistencies and present code procedures indicate that changes in the site coefficients are not warranted. Empirical results for base accelerations greater than 0.2 g confirm the need for both a short- and a mid- or long-period site coefficient to characterize site response for purposes of estimating site-specific design spectra.

  13. Challenge for reconstruction of public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuura, S.

    2001-01-01

    Past incidents and scandals that have had a large influence on damaging public confidence in nuclear energy safety are presented. Radiation leak on nuclear-powered ship 'Mutsu' (1974), the T.M.I. incident in 1979, Chernobyl accident (1986), the sodium leak at the Monju reactor (1995), fire and explosion at a low level waste asphalt solidification facility (1997), J.C.O. incident (Tokai- MURA, 1999), are so many examples that have created feelings of distrust and anxiety in society. In order to restore public confidence there is no other course but to be prepared for difficulty and work honestly to our fullest ability, with all steps made openly and accountably. (N.C.)

  14. Tables of Confidence Limits for Proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-09-01

    0.972 180 49 0.319 0.332 0,357 175 165 0.964 0.969 0.976 ISO 50 0.325 0.338 0.363 175 166 0.969 0.973 0.980 180 51 0.331 0.344 0.368 175 167 0.973 0.977...0.528 180 18 0.135 0 145 0.164 180 19 0.141 0.151 0.171 ISO 80 0.495 0,508 0.534 347 UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMIT FOR PROPORTIONS CONFIDENCE LEVEL...500 409 0.8401 0.8459 0.8565 500 355 0.7364 0.7434 0.7564 500 356 0.7383 0.7453 0.7582 500 410 0.8420 0.8478 0 8583 500 357 0.7402 0.7472 0.7602 500

  15. Social media sentiment and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Daas, Piet J.H.; Puts, Marco J.H.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...

  16. Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Navruz, Bilgin; Delen, Erhan

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...

  17. Confidence, Visual Research, and the Aesthetic Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stan Ruecker

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this article is to identify and describe one of the primary purposes of aesthetic quality in the design of computer interfaces and visualization tools. We suggest that humanists can derive advantages in visual research by acknowledging by their efforts to advance aesthetic quality that a significant function of aesthetics in this context is to inspire the user’s confidence. This confidence typically serves to create a sense of trust in the provider of the interface or tool. In turn, this increased trust may result in an increased willingness to engage with the object, on the basis that it demonstrates an attention to detail that promises to reward increased engagement. In addition to confidence, the aesthetic may also contribute to a heightened degree of satisfaction with having spent time using or investigating the object. In the realm of interface design and visualization research, we propose that these aesthetic functions have implications not only for the quality of interactions, but also for the results of the standard measures of performance and preference.

  18. Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

    The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

  19. Quadrature formulas for Fourier coefficients

    KAUST Repository

    Bojanov, Borislav

    2009-09-01

    We consider quadrature formulas of high degree of precision for the computation of the Fourier coefficients in expansions of functions with respect to a system of orthogonal polynomials. In particular, we show the uniqueness of a multiple node formula for the Fourier-Tchebycheff coefficients given by Micchelli and Sharma and construct new Gaussian formulas for the Fourier coefficients of a function, based on the values of the function and its derivatives. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2015-01-01

    A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

  1. Coefficient Alpha: A Reliability Coefficient for the 21st Century?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yanyun; Green, Samuel B.

    2011-01-01

    Coefficient alpha is almost universally applied to assess reliability of scales in psychology. We argue that researchers should consider alternatives to coefficient alpha. Our preference is for structural equation modeling (SEM) estimates of reliability because they are informative and allow for an empirical evaluation of the assumptions…

  2. Coefficient estimates of negative powers and inverse coefficients for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    and the inequality is sharp for the inverse of the Koebe function k(z) = z/(1 − z)2. An alternative approach to the inverse coefficient problem for functions in the class S has been investigated by Schaeffer and Spencer [27] and FitzGerald [6]. Although, the inverse coefficient problem for the class S has been completely solved ...

  3. Measuring of heat transfer coefficient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Poul; Lindegren, Maria

    Subtask 3.4 Measuring of heat transfer coefficient Subtask 3.4.1 Design and setting up of tests to measure heat transfer coefficient Objective: Complementary testing methods together with the relevant experimental equipment are to be designed by the two partners involved in order to measure...... the heat transfer coefficient for a wide range of interface conditions in hot and warm forging processes. Subtask 3.4.2 Measurement of heat transfer coefficient The objective of subtask 3.4.2 is to determine heat transfer values for different interface conditions reflecting those typically operating in hot...

  4. Transparency as an element of public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H.K.

    2007-01-01

    In the modern society, there is increasing demands for greater transparency. It has been discussed with respect to corruption or ethics issues in social science. The need for greater openness and transparency in nuclear regulation is widely recognised as public expectations on regulator grow. It is also related to the digital and information technology that enables disclosures of every activity and information of individual and organisation, characterised by numerous 'small brothers'. Transparency has become a key word in this ubiquitous era. Transparency in regulatory activities needs to be understood in following contexts. First, transparency is one of elements to build public confidence in regulator and eventually to achieve regulatory goal of providing the public with satisfaction at nuclear safety. Transparent bases of competence, independence, ethics and integrity of working process of regulatory body would enhance public confidence. Second, activities transmitting information on nuclear safety and preparedness to be accessed are different types of transparency. Communication is an active method of transparency. With increasing use of web-sites, 'digital transparency' is also discussed as passive one. Transparency in regulatory process may be more important than that of contents. Simply providing more information is of little value and specific information may need to be protected for security reason. Third, transparency should be discussed in international, national and organizational perspectives. It has been demanded through international instruments. for each country, transparency is demanded by residents, public, NGOs, media and other stakeholders. Employees also demand more transparency in operating and regulatory organisations. Whistle-blower may appear unless they are satisfied. Fourth, pursuing transparency may cause undue social cost or adverse effects. Over-transparency may decrease public confidence and the process for transparency may also hinder

  5. Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...

  6. National Debate and Public Confidence in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindquist, Ted

    2014-01-01

    Ted Lindquist, coordinator of the Association of Swedish Municipalities with Nuclear Facilities (KSO), closed the first day of conferences. He showed what the nuclear landscape was in Sweden, and in particular that through time there has been a rather good support from the population. He explained that the reason could be the confidence of the public in the national debate. On a more local scale, Ted Lindquist showed how overwhelmingly strong the support was in towns where the industry would like to operate long-term storage facilities

  7. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Settlemyer, Bradley W [ORNL; Hodson, Stephen W [ORNL; Kuehn, Jeffery A [ORNL; Poole, Stephen W [ORNL

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  8. Confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.; Naberejnev, D.G.

    2004-01-01

    The present communication addresses the topic of symmetric confidence intervals for the lognormal probability distribution. This distribution is frequently utilized to characterize inherently positive, continuous random variables that are selected to represent many physical quantities in applied nuclear science and technology. The basic formalism is outlined herein and a conjured numerical example is provided for illustration. It is demonstrated that when the uncertainty reflected in a lognormal probability distribution is large, the use of a confidence interval provides much more useful information about the variable used to represent a particular physical quantity than can be had by adhering to the notion that the mean value and standard deviation of the distribution ought to be interpreted as best value and corresponding error, respectively. Furthermore, it is shown that if the uncertainty is very large a disturbing anomaly can arise when one insists on interpreting the mean value and standard deviation as the best value and corresponding error, respectively. Reliance on using the mode and median as alternative parameters to represent the best available knowledge of a variable with large uncertainties is also shown to entail limitations. Finally, a realistic physical example involving the decay of radioactivity over a time period that spans many half-lives is presented and analyzed to further illustrate the concepts discussed in this communication

  9. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

  10. Sabine absorption coefficients to random incidence absorption coefficients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeong, Cheol-Ho

    2014-01-01

    into random incidence absorption coefficients for porous absorbers are investigated. Two optimization-based conversion methods are suggested: the surface impedance estimation for locally reacting absorbers and the flow resistivity estimation for extendedly reacting absorbers. The suggested conversion methods...

  11. Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2017-11-01

    Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.

  12. Technology in a crisis of confidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damodaran, G R

    1979-04-01

    The power that technological progress has given to engineers is examined to see if there has been a corresponding growth in human happiness. A credit/debit approach is discussed, whereby technological advancement is measured against the criteria of social good. The credit side includes medicine, agriculture, and energy use, while the debit side lists pollution, unequal distribution of technology and welfare, modern weaponry, resource depletion, and a possible decline in the quality of life. The present anti-technologists claim the debit side is now predominant, but the author challenges this position by examining the role of technology and the engineer in the society. He sees a need for renewed self-confidence and a sense of direction among engineers, but is generally optimistic that technology and civilization will continue to be intertwined. (DCK)

  13. Considering public confidence in developing regulatory programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, S.J.

    2001-01-01

    In the area of public trust and in any investment, planning and strategy are important. While it is accepted in the United States that an essential part of our mission is to leverage our resources to improving Public Confidence this performance goal must be planned for, managed and measured. Similar to our premier performance goal of Maintaining Safety, a strategy must be developed and integrated with our external stake holders but with internal regulatory staff as well. In order to do that, business is to be conducted in an open environment, the basis for regulatory decisions has to be available through public documents and public meetings, communication must be done in clear and consistent terms. (N.C.)

  14. Probabilistic optimization of safety coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, M.; Devictor, N.; Magistris, F. de

    1999-01-01

    This article describes a reliability-based method for the optimization of safety coefficients defined and used in design codes. The purpose of the optimization is to determine the partial safety coefficients which minimize an objective function for sets of components and loading situations covered by a design rule. This objective function is a sum of distances between the reliability of the components designed using the safety coefficients and a target reliability. The advantage of this method is shown on the examples of the reactor vessel, a vapour pipe and the safety injection circuit. (authors)

  15. Chinese Management Research Needs Self-Confidence but not Over-confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin; Ma, Li

    2018-01-01

    Chinese management research aims to contribute to global management knowledge by offering rigorous and innovative theories and practical recommendations both for managing in China and outside. However, two seemingly opposite directions that researchers are taking could prove detrimental......-confidence, limiting theoretical innovation and practical relevance. Yet going in the other direction of overly indigenous research reflects over-confidence, often isolating the Chinese management research from the mainstream academia and at times, even becoming anti-science. A more integrated approach of conducting...... to the healthy development of Chinese management research. We argue that the two directions share a common ground that lies in the mindset regarding the confidence in the work on and from China. One direction of simply following the American mainstream on academic rigor demonstrates a lack of self...

  16. Quadrature formulas for Fourier coefficients

    KAUST Repository

    Bojanov, Borislav; Petrova, Guergana

    2009-01-01

    We consider quadrature formulas of high degree of precision for the computation of the Fourier coefficients in expansions of functions with respect to a system of orthogonal polynomials. In particular, we show the uniqueness of a multiple node

  17. Diffusion coefficient for anomalous transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    A report on the progress towards the goal of estimating the diffusion coefficient for anomalous transport is given. The gyrokinetic theory is used to identify different time and length scale inherent to the characteristics of plasmas which exhibit anomalous transport

  18. Fuel Temperature Coefficient of Reactivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loewe, W.E.

    2001-07-31

    A method for measuring the fuel temperature coefficient of reactivity in a heterogeneous nuclear reactor is presented. The method, which is used during normal operation, requires that calibrated control rods be oscillated in a special way at a high reactor power level. The value of the fuel temperature coefficient of reactivity is found from the measured flux responses to these oscillations. Application of the method in a Savannah River reactor charged with natural uranium is discussed.

  19. Properties of Traffic Risk Coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Tie-Qiao; Huang, Hai-Jun; Shang, Hua-Yan; Xue, Yu

    2009-10-01

    We use the model with the consideration of the traffic interruption probability (Physica A 387(2008)6845) to study the relationship between the traffic risk coefficient and the traffic interruption probability. The analytical and numerical results show that the traffic interruption probability will reduce the traffic risk coefficient and that the reduction is related to the density, which shows that this model can improve traffic security.

  20. The theory of confidence-building measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darilek, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the theory of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) in two ways. First, it employs a top-down, deductively oriented approach to explain CBM theory in terms of the arms control goals and objectives to be achieved, the types of measures to be employed, and the problems or limitations likely to be encountered when applying CBMs to conventional or nuclear forces. The chapter as a whole asks how various types of CBMs might function during a political - military escalation from peacetime to a crisis and beyond (i.e. including conflict), as well as how they might operate in a de-escalatory environment. In pursuit of these overarching issues, the second section of the chapter raises a fundamental but complicating question: how might the next all-out war actually come aoubt - by unpremeditated escalation resulting from misunderstanding or miscalculation, or by premeditation resulting in a surprise attack? The second section of the paper addresses this question, explores its various implications for CBMs, and suggests the potential contribution of different types of CBMs toward successful resolution of the issues involved

  1. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to open-quotes false alarms.close quotes This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a open-quotes false alarm?close quotes Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  2. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that we put our trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  3. Trust versus confidence: Microprocessors and personnel monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaro, P.J. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Due to recent technological advances, substantial improvements have been made in personnel contamination monitoring. In all likelihood, these advances will close out the days of manually frisking personnel for radioactive contamination. Unfortunately, as microprocessor-based monitors become more widely used, not only at commercial power reactors but also at government facilities, questions concerning their trustworthiness arise. Algorithms make decisions that were previously made by technicians. Trust is placed not in technicians but in machines. In doing this it is assumed that the machine never misses. Inevitably, this trust drops, due largely to ''false alarms''. This is especially true when monitoring for alpha contamination. What is a ''false alarm''? Do these machines and their algorithms that they put their trust in make mistakes? An analysis was performed on half-body and hand-and-foot monitors at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order to justify the suggested confidence level used for alarm point determination. Sources used in this analysis had activities approximating ORNL's contamination limits

  4. Clustering Coefficients for Correlation Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Naoki; Sakaki, Michiko; Ezaki, Takahiro; Watanabe, Takamitsu

    2018-01-01

    Graph theory is a useful tool for deciphering structural and functional networks of the brain on various spatial and temporal scales. The clustering coefficient quantifies the abundance of connected triangles in a network and is a major descriptive statistics of networks. For example, it finds an application in the assessment of small-worldness of brain networks, which is affected by attentional and cognitive conditions, age, psychiatric disorders and so forth. However, it remains unclear how the clustering coefficient should be measured in a correlation-based network, which is among major representations of brain networks. In the present article, we propose clustering coefficients tailored to correlation matrices. The key idea is to use three-way partial correlation or partial mutual information to measure the strength of the association between the two neighboring nodes of a focal node relative to the amount of pseudo-correlation expected from indirect paths between the nodes. Our method avoids the difficulties of previous applications of clustering coefficient (and other) measures in defining correlational networks, i.e., thresholding on the correlation value, discarding of negative correlation values, the pseudo-correlation problem and full partial correlation matrices whose estimation is computationally difficult. For proof of concept, we apply the proposed clustering coefficient measures to functional magnetic resonance imaging data obtained from healthy participants of various ages and compare them with conventional clustering coefficients. We show that the clustering coefficients decline with the age. The proposed clustering coefficients are more strongly correlated with age than the conventional ones are. We also show that the local variants of the proposed clustering coefficients (i.e., abundance of triangles around a focal node) are useful in characterizing individual nodes. In contrast, the conventional local clustering coefficients were strongly

  5. Clustering Coefficients for Correlation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naoki Masuda

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Graph theory is a useful tool for deciphering structural and functional networks of the brain on various spatial and temporal scales. The clustering coefficient quantifies the abundance of connected triangles in a network and is a major descriptive statistics of networks. For example, it finds an application in the assessment of small-worldness of brain networks, which is affected by attentional and cognitive conditions, age, psychiatric disorders and so forth. However, it remains unclear how the clustering coefficient should be measured in a correlation-based network, which is among major representations of brain networks. In the present article, we propose clustering coefficients tailored to correlation matrices. The key idea is to use three-way partial correlation or partial mutual information to measure the strength of the association between the two neighboring nodes of a focal node relative to the amount of pseudo-correlation expected from indirect paths between the nodes. Our method avoids the difficulties of previous applications of clustering coefficient (and other measures in defining correlational networks, i.e., thresholding on the correlation value, discarding of negative correlation values, the pseudo-correlation problem and full partial correlation matrices whose estimation is computationally difficult. For proof of concept, we apply the proposed clustering coefficient measures to functional magnetic resonance imaging data obtained from healthy participants of various ages and compare them with conventional clustering coefficients. We show that the clustering coefficients decline with the age. The proposed clustering coefficients are more strongly correlated with age than the conventional ones are. We also show that the local variants of the proposed clustering coefficients (i.e., abundance of triangles around a focal node are useful in characterizing individual nodes. In contrast, the conventional local clustering coefficients

  6. Clustering Coefficients for Correlation Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Naoki; Sakaki, Michiko; Ezaki, Takahiro; Watanabe, Takamitsu

    2018-01-01

    Graph theory is a useful tool for deciphering structural and functional networks of the brain on various spatial and temporal scales. The clustering coefficient quantifies the abundance of connected triangles in a network and is a major descriptive statistics of networks. For example, it finds an application in the assessment of small-worldness of brain networks, which is affected by attentional and cognitive conditions, age, psychiatric disorders and so forth. However, it remains unclear how the clustering coefficient should be measured in a correlation-based network, which is among major representations of brain networks. In the present article, we propose clustering coefficients tailored to correlation matrices. The key idea is to use three-way partial correlation or partial mutual information to measure the strength of the association between the two neighboring nodes of a focal node relative to the amount of pseudo-correlation expected from indirect paths between the nodes. Our method avoids the difficulties of previous applications of clustering coefficient (and other) measures in defining correlational networks, i.e., thresholding on the correlation value, discarding of negative correlation values, the pseudo-correlation problem and full partial correlation matrices whose estimation is computationally difficult. For proof of concept, we apply the proposed clustering coefficient measures to functional magnetic resonance imaging data obtained from healthy participants of various ages and compare them with conventional clustering coefficients. We show that the clustering coefficients decline with the age. The proposed clustering coefficients are more strongly correlated with age than the conventional ones are. We also show that the local variants of the proposed clustering coefficients (i.e., abundance of triangles around a focal node) are useful in characterizing individual nodes. In contrast, the conventional local clustering coefficients were strongly

  7. Converting Sabine absorption coefficients to random incidence absorption coefficients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeong, Cheol-Ho

    2013-01-01

    are suggested: An optimization method for the surface impedances for locally reacting absorbers, the flow resistivity for extendedly reacting absorbers, and the flow resistance for fabrics. With four porous type absorbers, the conversion methods are validated. For absorbers backed by a rigid wall, the surface...... coefficients to random incidence absorption coefficients are proposed. The overestimations of the Sabine absorption coefficient are investigated theoretically based on Miki's model for porous absorbers backed by a rigid wall or an air cavity, resulting in conversion factors. Additionally, three optimizations...... impedance optimization produces the best results, while the flow resistivity optimization also yields reasonable results. The flow resistivity and flow resistance optimization for extendedly reacting absorbers are also found to be successful. However, the theoretical conversion factors based on Miki's model...

  8. Examining Belief and Confidence in Schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Dan W.; Averbeck, Bruno B.; Frith, Chris D.; Shergill, Sukhwinder S.

    2018-01-01

    Background People with psychoses often report fixed, delusional beliefs that are sustained even in the presence of unequivocal contrary evidence. Such delusional beliefs are the result of integrating new and old evidence inappropriately in forming a cognitive model. We propose and test a cognitive model of belief formation using experimental data from an interactive “Rock Paper Scissors” game. Methods Participants (33 controls and 27 people with schizophrenia) played a competitive, time-pressured interactive two-player game (Rock, Paper, Scissors). Participant’s behavior was modeled by a generative computational model using leaky-integrator and temporal difference methods. This model describes how new and old evidence is integrated to form both a playing strategy to beat the opponent and provide a mechanism for reporting confidence in one’s playing strategy to win against the opponent Results People with schizophrenia fail to appropriately model their opponent’s play despite consistent (rather than random) patterns that can be exploited in the simulated opponent’s play. This is manifest as a failure to weigh existing evidence appropriately against new evidence. Further, participants with schizophrenia show a ‘jumping to conclusions’ bias, reporting successful discovery of a winning strategy with insufficient evidence. Conclusions The model presented suggests two tentative mechanisms in delusional belief formation – i) one for modeling patterns in other’s behavior, where people with schizophrenia fail to use old evidence appropriately and ii) a meta-cognitive mechanism for ‘confidence’ in such beliefs where people with schizophrenia overweight recent reward history in deciding on the value of beliefs about the opponent. PMID:23521846

  9. Power coefficient anomaly in JOYO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamamoto, H

    1980-12-15

    Operation of the JOYO experimental fast reactor with the MK-I core has been divided into two phases: (1) 50 MWt power ascension and operation; and (2) 75 MWt power ascension and operation. The 50 MWt power-up tests were conducted in August 1978. In these tests, the measured reactivity loss due to power increases from 15 MWt to 50 MWt was 0.28% ..delta.. K/K, and agreed well with the predicted value of 0.27% ..delta.. K/K. The 75 MWt power ascension tests were conducted in July-August 1979. In the process of the first power increase above 50 MWt to 65 MWt conducted on July 11, 1979, an anomalously large negative power coefficient was observed. The value was about twice the power coefficient values measured in the tests below 50 MW. In order to reproduce the anomaly, the reactor power was decreased and again increased up to the maximum power of 65 MWt. However, the large negative power coefficient was not observed at this time. In the succeeding power increase from 65 MWt to 75 MWt, a similar anomalous power coefficient was again observed. This anomaly disappeared in the subsequent power ascensions to 75 MWt, and the magnitude of the power coefficient gradually decreased with power cycles above the 50 MWt level.

  10. Using the Coefficient of Confidence to Make the Philosophical Switch from a Posteriori to a Priori Inferential Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trafimow, David

    2017-01-01

    There has been much controversy over the null hypothesis significance testing procedure, with much of the criticism centered on the problem of inverse inference. Specifically, p gives the probability of the finding (or one more extreme) given the null hypothesis, whereas the null hypothesis significance testing procedure involves drawing a…

  11. Analysis of internal conversion coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coursol, N.; Gorozhankin, V.M.; Yakushev, E.A.; Briancon, C.; Vylov, Ts.

    2000-01-01

    An extensive database has been assembled that contains the three most widely used sets of calculated internal conversion coefficients (ICC): [Hager R.S., Seltzer E.C., 1968. Internal conversion tables. K-, L-, M-shell Conversion coefficients for Z=30 to Z=103, Nucl. Data Tables A4, 1-237; Band I.M., Trzhaskovskaya M.B., 1978. Tables of gamma-ray internal conversion coefficients for the K-, L- and M-shells, 10≤Z≤104, Special Report of Leningrad Nuclear Physics Institute; Roesel F., Fries H.M., Alder K., Pauli H.C., 1978. Internal conversion coefficients for all atomic shells, At. Data Nucl. Data Tables 21, 91-289] and also includes new Dirac-Fock calculations [Band I.M. and Trzhaskovskaya M.B., 1993. Internal conversion coefficients for low-energy nuclear transitions, At. Data Nucl. Data Tables 55, 43-61]. This database is linked to a computer program to plot ICCs and their combinations (sums and ratios) as a function of Z and energy, as well as relative deviations of ICC or their combinations for any pair of tabulated data. Examples of these analyses are presented for the K-shell and total ICCs of the gamma-ray standards [Hansen H.H., 1985. Evaluation of K-shell and total internal conversion coefficients for some selected nuclear transitions, Eur. Appl. Res. Rept. Nucl. Sci. Tech. 11.6 (4) 777-816] and for the K-shell and total ICCs of high multipolarity transitions (total, K-, L-, M-shells of E3 and M3 and K-shell of M4). Experimental data sets are also compared with the theoretical values of these specific calculations

  12. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gariela Gonçalves

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

  13. Algebraic polynomials with random coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Farahmand

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an asymptotic value for the mathematical expected number of points of inflections of a random polynomial of the form a0(ω+a1(ω(n11/2x+a2(ω(n21/2x2+…an(ω(nn1/2xn when n is large. The coefficients {aj(w}j=0n, w∈Ω are assumed to be a sequence of independent normally distributed random variables with means zero and variance one, each defined on a fixed probability space (A,Ω,Pr. A special case of dependent coefficients is also studied.

  14. Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D. Morey

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

  15. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  16. Irrational "Coefficients" in Renaissance Algebra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oaks, Jeffrey A

    2017-06-01

    Argument From the time of al-Khwārizmī in the ninth century to the beginning of the sixteenth century algebraists did not allow irrational numbers to serve as coefficients. To multiply by x, for instance, the result was expressed as the rhetorical equivalent of . The reason for this practice has to do with the premodern concept of a monomial. The coefficient, or "number," of a term was thought of as how many of that term are present, and not as the scalar multiple that we work with today. Then, in sixteenth-century Europe, a few algebraists began to allow for irrational coefficients in their notation. Christoff Rudolff (1525) was the first to admit them in special cases, and subsequently they appear more liberally in Cardano (1539), Scheubel (1550), Bombelli (1572), and others, though most algebraists continued to ban them. We survey this development by examining the texts that show irrational coefficients and those that argue against them. We show that the debate took place entirely in the conceptual context of premodern, "cossic" algebra, and persisted in the sixteenth century independent of the development of the new algebra of Viète, Decartes, and Fermat. This was a formal innovation violating prevailing concepts that we propose could only be introduced because of the growing autonomy of notation from rhetorical text.

  17. Integer Solutions of Binomial Coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbertson, Nicholas J.

    2016-01-01

    A good formula is like a good story, rich in description, powerful in communication, and eye-opening to readers. The formula presented in this article for determining the coefficients of the binomial expansion of (x + y)n is one such "good read." The beauty of this formula is in its simplicity--both describing a quantitative situation…

  18. Estimating confidence intervals in predicted responses for oscillatory biological models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Peter C; Doyle, Francis J

    2013-07-29

    The dynamics of gene regulation play a crucial role in a cellular control: allowing the cell to express the right proteins to meet changing needs. Some needs, such as correctly anticipating the day-night cycle, require complicated oscillatory features. In the analysis of gene regulatory networks, mathematical models are frequently used to understand how a network's structure enables it to respond appropriately to external inputs. These models typically consist of a set of ordinary differential equations, describing a network of biochemical reactions, and unknown kinetic parameters, chosen such that the model best captures experimental data. However, since a model's parameter values are uncertain, and since dynamic responses to inputs are highly parameter-dependent, it is difficult to assess the confidence associated with these in silico predictions. In particular, models with complex dynamics - such as oscillations - must be fit with computationally expensive global optimization routines, and cannot take advantage of existing measures of identifiability. Despite their difficulty to model mathematically, limit cycle oscillations play a key role in many biological processes, including cell cycling, metabolism, neuron firing, and circadian rhythms. In this study, we employ an efficient parameter estimation technique to enable a bootstrap uncertainty analysis for limit cycle models. Since the primary role of systems biology models is the insight they provide on responses to rate perturbations, we extend our uncertainty analysis to include first order sensitivity coefficients. Using a literature model of circadian rhythms, we show how predictive precision is degraded with decreasing sample points and increasing relative error. Additionally, we show how this method can be used for model discrimination by comparing the output identifiability of two candidate model structures to published literature data. Our method permits modellers of oscillatory systems to confidently

  19. Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ndhlovu, T

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

  20. nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Temechegn

    Altogether the test is made up of 40 items covering students' ability to recall definition ... confidence interval within which student have confidence in their choice of the .... is mentioned these equilibrium systems come to memory of the learner.

  1. Simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function

    OpenAIRE

    Dudek, Anna; Gocwin, Maciej; Leskow, Jacek

    2006-01-01

    The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson--Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Two methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird bootstrap method is used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal--tai...

  2. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

  3. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  4. Comprehensive Plan for Public Confidence in Nuclear Regulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Kim, Ho ki

    2008-01-01

    Public confidence in nuclear regulator has been discussed internationally. Public trust or confidence is needed for achieving regulatory goal of assuring nuclear safety to the level that is acceptable by the public or providing public ease for nuclear safety. In Korea, public ease or public confidence has been suggested as major policy goal in the 'Nuclear regulatory policy direction' annually announced. This paper reviews theory of trust, its definitions and defines nuclear safety regulation, elements of public trust or public confidence developed based on the study conducted so far. Public ease model developed and 10 measures for ensuring public confidence are also presented and future study directions are suggested

  5. Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

  6. Calibration factor or calibration coefficient?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meghzifene, A.; Shortt, K.R.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: The IAEA/WHO network of SSDLs was set up in order to establish links between SSDL members and the international measurement system. At the end of 2001, there were 73 network members in 63 Member States. The SSDL network members provide calibration services to end-users at the national or regional level. The results of the calibrations are summarized in a document called calibration report or calibration certificate. The IAEA has been using the term calibration certificate and will continue using the same terminology. The most important information in a calibration certificate is a list of calibration factors and their related uncertainties that apply to the calibrated instrument for the well-defined irradiation and ambient conditions. The IAEA has recently decided to change the term calibration factor to calibration coefficient, to be fully in line with ISO [ISO 31-0], which recommends the use of the term coefficient when it links two quantities A and B (equation 1) that have different dimensions. The term factor should only be used for k when it is used to link the terms A and B that have the same dimensions A=k.B. However, in a typical calibration, an ion chamber is calibrated in terms of a physical quantity such as air kerma, dose to water, ambient dose equivalent, etc. If the chamber is calibrated together with its electrometer, then the calibration refers to the physical quantity to be measured per electrometer unit reading. In this case, the terms referred have different dimensions. The adoption by the Agency of the term coefficient to express the results of calibrations is consistent with the 'International vocabulary of basic and general terms in metrology' prepared jointly by the BIPM, IEC, ISO, OIML and other organizations. The BIPM has changed from factor to coefficient. The authors believe that this is more than just a matter of semantics and recommend that the SSDL network members adopt this change in terminology. (author)

  7. Extinction Coefficient of Gold Nanostars

    OpenAIRE

    de Puig, Helena; Tam, Justina O.; Yen, Chun-Wan; Gehrke, Lee; Hamad-Schifferli, Kimberly

    2015-01-01

    Gold nanostars (NStars) are highly attractive for biological applications due to their surface chemistry, facile synthesis and optical properties. Here, we synthesize NStars in HEPES buffer at different HEPES/Au ratios, producing NStars of different sizes and shapes, and therefore varying optical properties. We measure the extinction coefficient of the synthesized NStars at their maximum surface plasmon resonances (SPR), which range from 5.7 × 108 to 26.8 × 108 M−1cm−1. Measured values correl...

  8. Effects of postidentification feedback on eyewitness identification and nonidentification confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L

    2004-04-01

    Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency.

  9. Effects of confidence and anxiety on flow state in competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehn, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Confidence and anxiety are important variables that underlie the experience of flow in sport. Specifically, research has indicated that confidence displays a positive relationship and anxiety a negative relationship with flow. The aim of this study was to assess potential direct and indirect effects of confidence and anxiety dimensions on flow state in tennis competition. A sample of 59 junior tennis players completed measures of Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2d and Flow State Scale-2. Following predictive analysis, results showed significant positive correlations between confidence (intensity and direction) and anxiety symptoms (only directional perceptions) with flow state. Standard multiple regression analysis indicated confidence as the only significant predictor of flow. The results confirmed a protective function of confidence against debilitating anxiety interpretations, but there were no significant interaction effects between confidence and anxiety on flow state.

  10. Form of multicomponent Fickian diffusion coefficients matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wambui Mutoru, J.; Firoozabadi, Abbas

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Irreversible thermodynamics establishes form of multicomponent diffusion coefficients. → Phenomenological coefficients and thermodynamic factors affect sign of diffusion coefficients. → Negative diagonal elements of diffusion coefficients matrix can occur in non-ideal mixtures. → Eigenvalues of the matrix of Fickian diffusion coefficients may not be all real. - Abstract: The form of multicomponent Fickian diffusion coefficients matrix in thermodynamically stable mixtures is established based on the form of phenomenological coefficients and thermodynamic factors. While phenomenological coefficients form a symmetric positive definite matrix, the determinant of thermodynamic factors matrix is positive. As a result, the Fickian diffusion coefficients matrix has a positive determinant, but its elements - including diagonal elements - can be negative. Comprehensive survey of reported diffusion coefficients data for ternary and quaternary mixtures, confirms that invariably the determinant of the Fickian diffusion coefficients matrix is positive.

  11. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2018-02-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  12. Factors affecting midwives' confidence in intrapartum care: a phenomenological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedwell, Carol; McGowan, Linda; Lavender, Tina

    2015-01-01

    midwives are frequently the lead providers of care for women throughout labour and birth. In order to perform their role effectively and provide women with the choices they require midwives need to be confident in their practice. This study explores factors which may affect midwives' confidence in their practice. hermeneutic phenomenology formed the theoretical basis for the study. Prospective longitudinal data collection was completed using diaries and semi-structured interviews. Twelve midwives providing intrapartum care in a variety of settings were recruited to ensure a variety of experiences in different contexts were captured. the principal factor affecting workplace confidence, both positively and negatively, was the influence of colleagues. Perceived autonomy and a sense of familiarity could also enhance confidence. However, conflict in the workplace was a critical factor in reducing midwives' confidence. Confidence was an important, but fragile, phenomenon to midwives and they used a variety of coping strategies, emotional intelligence and presentation management to maintain it. this is the first study to highlight both the factors influencing midwives' workplace confidence and the strategies midwives employed to maintain their confidence. Confidence is important in maintaining well-being and workplace culture may play a role in explaining the current low morale within the midwifery workforce. This may have implications for women's choices and care. Support, effective leadership and education may help midwives develop and sustain a positive sense of confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Study of transport coefficients of nanodiamond nanofluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryazhnikov, M. I.; Minakov, A. V.; Guzei, D. V.

    2017-09-01

    Experimental data on the thermal conductivity coefficient and viscosity coefficient of nanodiamond nanofluids are presented. Distilled water and ethylene glycol were used as the base fluid. Dependences of transport coefficients on concentration are obtained. It was shown that the thermal conductivity coefficient increases with increasing nanodiamonds concentration. It was shown that base fluids properties and nanodiamonds concentration affect on the rheology of nanofluids.

  14. Evaluation of Rock Joint Coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audy, Ondřej; Ficker, Tomáš

    2017-10-01

    A computer method for evaluation of rock joint coefficients is described and several applications are presented. The method is based on two absolute numerical indicators that are formed by means of the Fourier replicas of rock joint profiles. The first indicator quantifies the vertical depth of profiles and the second indicator classifies wavy character of profiles. The absolute indicators have replaced the formerly used relative indicators that showed some artificial behavior in some cases. This contribution is focused on practical computations testing the functionality of the newly introduced indicators.

  15. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

  16. Confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Zachary; Felker, Sydney

    2012-06-01

    On tasks that require the mental rotation of 3-dimensional figures, males typically exhibit higher accuracy than females. Using the most common measure of mental rotation (i.e., the Mental Rotations Test), we investigated whether individual variability in confidence mediates this sex difference in mental rotation performance. In each of four experiments, the sex difference was reliably elicited and eliminated by controlling or manipulating participants' confidence. Specifically, confidence predicted performance within and between sexes (Experiment 1), rendering confidence irrelevant to the task reliably eliminated the sex difference in performance (Experiments 2 and 3), and manipulating confidence significantly affected performance (Experiment 4). Thus, confidence mediates the sex difference in mental rotation performance and hence the sex difference appears to be a difference of performance rather than ability. Results are discussed in relation to other potential mediators and mechanisms, such as gender roles, sex stereotypes, spatial experience, rotation strategies, working memory, and spatial attention.

  17. Coping skills: role of trait sport confidence and trait anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cresswell, Scott; Hodge, Ken

    2004-04-01

    The current research assesses relationships among coping skills, trait sport confidence, and trait anxiety. Two samples (n=47 and n=77) of international competitors from surf life saving (M=23.7 yr.) and touch rugby (M=26.2 yr.) completed the Athletic Coping Skills Inventory, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Sport Anxiety Scale. Analysis yielded significant correlations amongst trait anxiety, sport confidence, and coping. Specifically confidence scores were positively associated with coping with adversity scores and anxiety scores were negatively associated. These findings support the inclusion of the personality characteristics of confidence and anxiety within the coping model presented by Hardy, Jones, and Gould, Researchers should be aware that confidence and anxiety may influence the coping processes of athletes.

  18. Correlation coefficients in neutron β-decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrne, J.

    1978-01-01

    The various angular and polarisation coefficients in neutron decay are the principal sources of information on the β-interaction. Measurements of the electron-neutrino angular correlation coefficient (a), the neutron-spin-electron-momentum correlation coefficient (A), the neutron-spin-neutrino-momentum correlation coefficient (B), and the triple correlation coefficient D and time-reversal invariance are reviewed and the results discussed. (U.K.)

  19. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    OpenAIRE

    Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

    2014-01-01

    While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

  20. Preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching school violence prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandakai, Tina L; King, Keith A

    2002-01-01

    To examine preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention and the potential effect of violence-prevention training on preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. Six Ohio universities participated in the study. More than 800 undergraduate and graduate students completed surveys. Violence-prevention training, area of certification, and location of student- teaching placement significantly influenced preservice teachers' perceived confidence in teaching violence prevention. Violence-prevention training positively influences preservice teachers' confidence in teaching violence prevention. The results suggest that such training should be considered as a requirement for teacher preparation programs.

  1. The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings.

  2. Evaluation of error bands and confidence limits for thermal measurements in the CFTL bundle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Childs, K.W.; Sanders, J.P.; Conklin, J.C.

    1979-01-01

    Surface cladding temperatures for the fuel rod simulators in the Core Flow Test Loop (CFTL) must be inferred from a measurement at a thermocouple junction within the rod. This step requires the evaluation of the thermal field within the rod based on known parameters such as heat generation rate, dimensional tolerances, thermal properties, and contact coefficients. Uncertainties in the surface temperature can be evaluated by assigning error bands to each of the parameters used in the calculation. A statistical method has been employed to establish the confidence limits for the surface temperature from a combination of the standard deviations of the important parameters. This method indicates that for a CFTL fuel rod simulator with a total power of 38 kW and a ratio of maximum to average axial power of 1.21, the 95% confidence limit for the calculated surface temperature is +- 45 0 C at the midpoint of the rod

  3. The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

    2014-05-01

    The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

  4. Confidence limits for regional cerebral blood flow values obtained with circular positron system, using krypton-77

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, E.; Yamamoto, Y.L.; Thompson, C.J.

    1978-01-01

    The 90% confidence limits have been determined for regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) values obtained in each cm 2 of a cross section of the human head after inhalation of radioactive krypton-77, using the MNI circular positron emission tomography system (Positome). CBF values for small brain tissue elements are calculated by linear regression analysis on the semi-logarithmically transformed clearance curve. A computer program displays CBF values and their estimated error in numeric and gray scale forms. The following typical results have been obtained on a control subject: mean CBF in the entire cross section of the head: 54.6 + - 5 ml/min/100 g tissue, rCBF for small area of frontal gray matter: 75.8 + - 9 ml/min/100 g tissue. Confidence intervals for individual rCBF values varied between + - 13 and + - 55% except for areas pertaining to the ventricular system where particularly poor statistics have been obtained. Knowledge of confidence limits for rCBF values improves their diagnostic significance, particularly with respect to the assessment of reduced rCBF in stroke patients. A nomogram for convenient determination of 90% confidence limits for slope values obtained in linear regression analysis has been designed with the number of fitted points (n) and the correlation coefficient (r) as parameters. (author)

  5. Extinction Coefficient of Gold Nanostars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Puig, Helena; Tam, Justina O; Yen, Chun-Wan; Gehrke, Lee; Hamad-Schifferli, Kimberly

    2015-07-30

    Gold nanostars (NStars) are highly attractive for biological applications due to their surface chemistry, facile synthesis and optical properties. Here, we synthesize NStars in HEPES buffer at different HEPES/Au ratios, producing NStars of different sizes and shapes, and therefore varying optical properties. We measure the extinction coefficient of the synthesized NStars at their maximum surface plasmon resonances (SPR), which range from 5.7 × 10 8 to 26.8 × 10 8 M -1 cm -1 . Measured values correlate with those obtained from theoretical models of the NStars using the discrete dipole approximation (DDA), which we use to simulate the extinction spectra of the nanostars. Finally, because NStars are typically used in biological applications, we conjugate DNA and antibodies to the NStars and calculate the footprint of the bound biomolecules.

  6. Kerr scattering coefficients via isomonodromy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cunha, Bruno Carneiro da [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco,50670-901, Recife, Pernambuco (Brazil); Novaes, Fábio [International Institute of Physics, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte,Av. Odilon Gomes de Lima 1722, Capim Macio, Natal-RN 59078-400 (Brazil)

    2015-11-23

    We study the scattering of a massless scalar field in a generic Kerr background. Using a particular gauge choice based on the current conservation of the radial equation, we give a generic formula for the scattering coefficient in terms of the composite monodromy parameter σ between the inner and the outer horizons. Using the isomonodromy flow, we calculate σ exactly in terms of the Painlevé V τ-function. We also show that the eigenvalue problem for the angular equation (spheroidal harmonics) can be calculated using the same techniques. We use recent developments relating the Painlevé V τ-function to Liouville irregular conformal blocks to claim that this scattering problem is solved in the combinatorial sense, with known expressions for the τ-function near the critical points.

  7. A short note on jackknifing the concordance correlation coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Dai; Baumgartner, Richard; Svetnik, Vladimir

    2014-02-10

    Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) is a very popular scaled index of agreement used in applied statistics. To obtain a confidence interval (CI) for the estimate of CCC, jackknifing was proposed and shown to perform well in simulation as well as in applications. However, a theoretical proof of the validity of the jackknife CI for the CCC has not been presented yet. In this note, we establish a sufficient condition for using the jackknife method to construct the CI for the CCC. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  9. Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this

  10. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  11. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  12. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  13. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  14. A scale for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Lans, van der I.A.; Renes, R.J.; Frewer, L.J.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a scale to measure general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Results from exploratory and confirmatory analyses indicate that general consumer confidence in the safety of food consists of two distinct dimensions, optimism and pessimism,

  15. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  16. Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor

  17. Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

    2009-01-01

    A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

  18. Music educators : their artistry and self-confidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lion-Slovak, Brigitte; Stöger, Christine; Smilde, Rineke; Malmberg, Isolde; de Vugt, Adri

    2013-01-01

    How does artistic identity influence the self-confidence of music educators? What is the interconnection between the artistic and the teacher identity? What is actually meant by artistic identity in music education? What is a fruitful environment for the development of artistic self-confidence of

  19. To protect and serve: Restoring public confidence in the SAPS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Persistent incidents of brutality, criminal behaviour and abuse of authority by members of South Africa's police agencies have serious implications for public trust and confidence in the police. A decline in trust and confidence in the police is inevitably harmful to the ability of the government to reduce crime and improve public ...

  20. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Buratti

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

  1. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R.; Sigman, Mariano

    2014-01-01

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

  2. On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2018-02-01

    Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Shujie; Yang, Lijian; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2012-01-01

    Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

  4. Assessing sensitivity to change: choosing the appropriate change coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stratford Paul W

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The past 20-years have seen the development and evaluation of many health status measures. Unlike the high standards demanded of those who conduct and report clinical intervention trials, the methodological rigor for studies examining the sensitivity to change of health status measures are less demanding. It is likely that the absence of a criterion standard for change in health status contributes to this shortcoming. To increase confidence in the results of these types of studies investigators have often calculated multiple change coefficients for the same patient sample. The purpose of this report is to identify the conflict that arises when multiple change coefficients are applied to the same patient sample. Three families of change coefficients based on different assumptions concerning the sample composition are identified: (1 the sample is homogeneous with respect to change; (2 subgroups of patients who truly change by different amounts exist; (3 individual patients, many of whom truly change by different amounts exist. We present several analyses which illustrate a major conceptual conflict: the signal (a measure's true ability to detect change for some of these coefficients appears in the noise term (measurement error of the others. We speculate that this dilemma occurs as a result of insufficient preparatory work such as pilot studies to establish the likely change characteristic of the patient population of interest. Uncertainty in the choice of change coefficient could be overcome by conducting pilot studies to ascertain the likely change characteristic of the population of interest. Once the population's change characteristic is identified, the choice of change coefficient should be clear.

  5. What are effective techniques for improving public confidence or restoring lost confidence in a regulator?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harbitz, O.; Isaksson, R.

    2006-01-01

    The conclusions and recommendations of this session can be summarized this way. The following list contains thoughts related to restoring lost confidence: - hard, long lasting event; - strategy: maximum transparency; - to listen, be open, give phone numbers etc. - ways to rebuild trust: frequent communication, being there, open and transparent; - don't be too defensive; if things could be done better, say it; - technical staff and public affair staff together from the beginning - answer all questions; - classifications, actions, instructions that differ much from the earlier ones must be well explained and motivated - and still cause a lot of problems; - things may turn out to be political; - communicative work in an early stage saves work later; - communication experts must be working shoulder to shoulder with other staff; On handling emergencies in general, some recipes proposed are: - better to over react than to under react; - do not avoid extreme actions: hit hard, hit fast; - base your decisions in strict principles; - first principle: public safety first; - when you are realizing plant A, you must have a plant B in your pocket: - be transparent - from the beginning; - crisis communication: early, frequent etc - people need to see political leaders, someone who is making decisions - technical experts are needed but are not enough. On how to involve stakeholders and the public in decision making, recommendations are: - new kind of thinking -. demanding for a organisation; - go to local level, meet local people, speak language people understand, you have to start from the very beginning - introducing yourself tell who you are and why you are there. (authors)

  6. Family Health Histories and Their Impact on Retirement Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zick, Cathleen D; Mayer, Robert N; Smith, Ken R

    2015-08-01

    Retirement confidence is a key social barometer. In this article, we examine how personal and parental health histories relate to working-age adults' feelings of optimism or pessimism about their overall retirement prospects. This study links survey data on retirement planning with information on respondents' own health histories and those of their parents. The multivariate models control for the respondents' socio-demographic and economic characteristics along with past retirement planning activities when estimating the relationships between family health histories and retirement confidence. Retirement confidence is inversely related to parental history of cancer and cardiovascular disease but not to personal health history. In contrast, retirement confidence is positively associated with both parents being deceased. As members of the public become increasingly aware of how genetics and other family factors affect intergenerational transmission of chronic diseases, it is likely that the link between family health histories and retirement confidence will intensify. © The Author(s) 2015.

  7. Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739

  8. Maternal Confidence for Physiologic Childbirth: A Concept Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neerland, Carrie E

    2018-06-06

    Confidence is a term often used in research literature and consumer media in relation to birth, but maternal confidence has not been clearly defined, especially as it relates to physiologic labor and birth. The aim of this concept analysis was to define maternal confidence in the context of physiologic labor and childbirth. Rodgers' evolutionary method was used to identify attributes, antecedents, and consequences of maternal confidence for physiologic birth. Databases searched included Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Sociological Abstracts from the years 1995 to 2015. A total of 505 articles were retrieved, using the search terms pregnancy, obstetric care, prenatal care, and self-efficacy and the keyword confidence. Articles were identified for in-depth review and inclusion based on whether the term confidence was used or assessed in relationship to labor and/or birth. In addition, a hand search of the reference lists of the selected articles was performed. Twenty-four articles were reviewed in this concept analysis. We define maternal confidence for physiologic birth as a woman's belief that physiologic birth can be achieved, based on her view of birth as a normal process and her belief in her body's innate ability to birth, which is supported by social support, knowledge, and information founded on a trusted relationship with a maternity care provider in an environment where the woman feels safe. This concept analysis advances the concept of maternal confidence for physiologic birth and provides new insight into how women's confidence for physiologic birth might be enhanced during the prenatal period. Further investigation of confidence for physiologic birth across different cultures is needed to identify cultural differences in constructions of the concept. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

  9. Factorization of Transport Coefficients in Macroporous Media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shapiro, Alexander; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2000-01-01

    We prove the fundamental theorem about factorization of the phenomenological coefficients for transport in macroporous media. By factorization we mean the representation of the transport coefficients as products of geometric parameters of the porous medium and the parameters characteristic...

  10. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  11. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2017-11-01

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  12. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

  13. Self-Confidence and Quality of Life in Women Undergoing Treatment for Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafaee, Fahimeh Sehati; Mirghafourvand, Mojgan; Harischi, Sepideh; Esfahani, Ali; Amirzehni, Jalileh

    2018-01-01

    Introduction: Quality of life is an important topic in the study of chronic diseases, especially cancer which can have a major effect on patient self-confidence. This study was conducted to determine quality of life and its relationship with self-confidence in women undergoing treatment for breast cancer. Methods: This cross-sectional, descriptive, analytical study was conducted in 2016 on 166 women with breast cancer undergoing treatment at Ghazi, Al-Zahra, International and/or Shams hospitals in Tabriz. The subjects were selected through convenience sampling. A personal-demographic questionnaire, the Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire (QLQ-C30), and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) were completed for each patient. The data obtained were analyzed using independent t-tests, one-way ANOVA, multivariate linear regression and Pearson’s correlation coefficients. Findings: The mean total score of quality of life was 59.1±17.4, ranging from 0 to 100. The highest mean score was obtained in the cognitive subscale (74.9±23.8) and the lowest in the emotional subscale (51.4±21.1). The mean score for self-confidence was 0.3 with a standard deviation of 0.1, ranging from -1 to +1. There was a significant positive relationship between self-confidence and quality of life, except in three symptom subscales for diarrhea, constipation and loss of appetite (Pquality of life. Discussion: Given the significant relationship between quality of life and self-confidence, health care providers may need to pay special attention to women undergoing treatment for breast cancer and perform timely measures to maintain their belief in themselves. PMID:29582628

  14. Confidence in Alternative Dispute Resolution: Experience from Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof Schwenkel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Alternative Dispute Resolution plays a crucial role in the justice system of Switzerland. With the unified Swiss Code of Civil Procedure, it is required that each litigation session shall be preceded by an attempt at conciliation before a conciliation authority. However, there has been little research on conciliation authorities and the public's perception of the authorities. This paper looks at public confidence in conciliation authorities and provides results of a survey conducted with more than 3,400 participants. This study found that public confidence in Swiss conciliation authorities is generally high, exceeds the ratings for confidence in cantonal governments and parliaments, but is lower than confidence in courts.Since the institutional models of the conciliation authorities (meaning the organization of the authorities and the selection of the conciliators differ widely between the 26 Swiss cantons, the influence of the institutional models on public confidence is analyzed. Contrary to assumptions based on New Institutional-ism approaches, this study reports that the institutional models do not impact public confidence. Also, the relationship between a participation in an election of justices of the peace or conciliators and public confidence in these authorities is found to be at most very limited (and negative. Similar to common findings on courts, the results show that general contacts with conciliation authorities decrease public confidence in these institutions whereas a positive experience with a conciliation authority leads to more confidence.The Study was completed as part of the research project 'Basic Research into Court Management in Switzerland', supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF. Christof Schwenkel is a PhD student at the University of Lucerne and a research associate and project manager at Interface Policy Studies. A first version of this article was presented at the 2013 European Group for Public

  15. Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

    2017-01-01

    Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broten, G S; Wood, H C [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network`s ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor`s response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

  17. Anomalous Seebeck coefficient in boron carbides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aselage, T.L.; Emin, D.; Wood, C.; Mackinnon, I.D.R.; Howard, I.A.

    1987-01-01

    Boron carbides exhibit an anomalously large Seebeck coefficient with a temperature coefficient that is characteristic of polaronic hopping between inequivalent sites. The inequivalence in the sites is associated with disorder in the solid. The temperature dependence of the Seebeck coefficient for materials prepared by different techniques provides insight into the nature of the disorder

  18. Standards for Standardized Logistic Regression Coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menard, Scott

    2011-01-01

    Standardized coefficients in logistic regression analysis have the same utility as standardized coefficients in linear regression analysis. Although there has been no consensus on the best way to construct standardized logistic regression coefficients, there is now sufficient evidence to suggest a single best approach to the construction of a…

  19. Soccer Ball Lift Coefficients via Trajectory Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goff, John Eric; Carre, Matt J.

    2010-01-01

    We performed experiments in which a soccer ball was launched from a machine while two high-speed cameras recorded portions of the trajectory. Using the trajectory data and published drag coefficients, we extracted lift coefficients for a soccer ball. We determined lift coefficients for a wide range of spin parameters, including several spin…

  20. Symmetry chains and adaptation coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzer, H.P.; Gruber, B.

    1985-01-01

    Given a symmetry chain of physical significance it becomes necessary to obtain states which transform properly with respect to the symmetries of the chain. In this article we describe a method which permits us to calculate symmetry-adapted quantum states with relative ease. The coefficients for the symmetry-adapted linear combinations are obtained, in numerical form, in terms of the original states of the system and can thus be represented in the form of numerical tables. In addition, one also obtains automatically the matrix elements for the operators of the symmetry groups which are involved, and thus for any physical operator which can be expressed either as an element of the algebra or of the enveloping algebra. The method is well suited for computers once the physically relevant symmetry chain, or chains, have been defined. While the method to be described is generally applicable to any physical system for which semisimple Lie algebras play a role we choose here a familiar example in order to illustrate the method and to illuminate its simplicity. We choose the nuclear shell model for the case of two nucleons with orbital angular momentum l = 1. While the states of the entire shell transform like the smallest spin representation of SO(25) we restrict our attention to its subgroup SU(6) x SU(2)/sub T/. We determine the symmetry chains which lead to total angular momentum SU(2)/sub J/ and obtain the symmetry-adapted states for these chains

  1. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  2. Energy coefficients for a propeller series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Anders Smærup

    2004-01-01

    The efficiency for a propeller is calculated by energy coefficients. These coefficients are related to four types of losses, i.e. the axial, the rotational, the frictional, and the finite blade number loss, and one gain, i.e. the axial gain. The energy coefficients are derived by use...... of the potential theory with the propeller modelled as an actuator disk. The efficiency based on the energy coefficients is calculated for a propeller series. The results show a good agreement between the efficiency based on the energy coefficients and the efficiency obtained by a vortex-lattice method....

  3. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  4. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Document Server

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC), in 2007." (1 page)

  5. Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien eMassoni

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

  6. Confidence-building measures in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Huasun

    1991-01-01

    The regional confidence-building, security and disarmament issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and in particular, support to non-proliferation regime and establishing nuclear-weapon-free zones are reviewed

  7. Building Supervisory Confidence--A Key to Transfer of Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byham, William C.; Robinson, James

    1977-01-01

    A training concept is described which suggests that efforts toward maintaining and/or building the confidence of the participants in supervisory training programs can increase their likelihood of using the skills on the job. (TA)

  8. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  9. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  10. Effect of retardation coefficient for radionuclide migration on assessment results of environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhiming

    2004-01-01

    Environmental impact report is an important content in enforcing environmental impact assessment system. Effect of retardation coefficient used in models of radionuclide migration in geological media on the calculated results of maximum concentration of calculated points at the lower reaches is discussed in this paper. It is shown from experimental results that the retardation coefficient is not a constant. And it is shown from calculated results that retardation coefficient obviously affect the calculated results of maximum concentration of calculated point at the lower reaches. Conservation level of the assessment results would considerably be affected, and hence confidence level of results would be affected if the aspects are not paid enough attention and solved. The paper suggests that retardation coefficient used in migration models should directly be obtained by measurement in the field or in column, rather than using the result derived from distribution coefficients according to some formula in order to prevent the nonconservative results

  11. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

  12. Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrels, N.

    1986-01-01

    The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.

  13. Non-Asymptotic Confidence Sets for Circular Means

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hotz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The mean of data on the unit circle is defined as the minimizer of the average squared Euclidean distance to the data. Based on Hoeffding’s mass concentration inequalities, non-asymptotic confidence sets for circular means are constructed which are universal in the sense that they require no distributional assumptions. These are then compared with asymptotic confidence sets in simulations and for a real data set.

  14. Differentially Private Confidence Intervals for Empirical Risk Minimization

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Yue; Kifer, Daniel; Lee, Jaewoo

    2018-01-01

    The process of data mining with differential privacy produces results that are affected by two types of noise: sampling noise due to data collection and privacy noise that is designed to prevent the reconstruction of sensitive information. In this paper, we consider the problem of designing confidence intervals for the parameters of a variety of differentially private machine learning models. The algorithms can provide confidence intervals that satisfy differential privacy (as well as the mor...

  15. Learning style and confidence: an empirical investigation of Japanese employees

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshitaka Yamazaki

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to examine how learning styles relate to employees' confidence through a view of Kolb's experiential learning theory. For this aim, an empirical investigation was conducted using the sample of 201 Japanese employees who work for a Japanese multinational corporation. Results illustrated that the learning style group of acting orientation described a significantly higher level of job confidence than that of reflecting orientation, whereas the two groups of feeling and thinking o...

  16. Sample Size Calculation for Estimating or Testing a Nonzero Squared Multiple Correlation Coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamoorthy, K.; Xia, Yanping

    2008-01-01

    The problems of hypothesis testing and interval estimation of the squared multiple correlation coefficient of a multivariate normal distribution are considered. It is shown that available one-sided tests are uniformly most powerful, and the one-sided confidence intervals are uniformly most accurate. An exact method of calculating sample size to…

  17. The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SUTHERLAND, HERBERT J.; VEERS, PAUL S.

    1999-01-01

    Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S(sub 1)). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results

  18. Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.

  19. Bootstrap resampling: a powerful method of assessing confidence intervals for doses from experimental data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwi, G.; Millard, R.K.; Palmer, A.M.; Preece, A.W.; Saunders, M.

    1999-01-01

    Bootstrap resampling provides a versatile and reliable statistical method for estimating the accuracy of quantities which are calculated from experimental data. It is an empirically based method, in which large numbers of simulated datasets are generated by computer from existing measurements, so that approximate confidence intervals of the derived quantities may be obtained by direct numerical evaluation. A simple introduction to the method is given via a detailed example of estimating 95% confidence intervals for cumulated activity in the thyroid following injection of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate using activity-time data from 23 subjects. The application of the approach to estimating confidence limits for the self-dose to the kidney following injection of 99m Tc-DTPA organ imaging agent based on uptake data from 19 subjects is also illustrated. Results are then given for estimates of doses to the foetus following administration of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate for clinical reasons during pregnancy, averaged over 25 subjects. The bootstrap method is well suited for applications in radiation dosimetry including uncertainty, reliability and sensitivity analysis of dose coefficients in biokinetic models, but it can also be applied in a wide range of other biomedical situations. (author)

  20. Stability in the metamemory realism of eyewitness confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin; Johansson, Marcus

    2014-02-01

    The stability of eyewitness confidence judgments over time in regard to their reported memory and accuracy of these judgments is of interest in forensic contexts because witnesses are often interviewed many times. The present study investigated the stability of the confidence judgments of memory reports of a witnessed event and of the accuracy of these judgments over three occasions, each separated by 1 week. Three age groups were studied: younger children (8-9 years), older children (10-11 years), and adults (19-31 years). A total of 93 participants viewed a short film clip and were asked to answer directed two-alternative forced-choice questions about the film clip and to confidence judge each answer. Different questions about details in the film clip were used on each of the three test occasions. Confidence as such did not exhibit stability over time on an individual basis. However, the difference between confidence and proportion correct did exhibit stability across time, in terms of both over/underconfidence and calibration. With respect to age, the adults and older children exhibited more stability than the younger children for calibration. Furthermore, some support for instability was found with respect to the difference between the average confidence level for correct and incorrect answers (slope). Unexpectedly, however, the younger children's slope was found to be more stable than the adults. Compared to the previous research, the present study's use of more advanced statistical methods provides a more nuanced understanding of the stability of confidence judgments in the eyewitness reports of children and adults.

  1. Wind shear coefficients and their effect on energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehman, Shafiqur; Al-Abbadi, Naif M.

    2005-01-01

    This paper provides realistic values of wind shear coefficients calculated using measured values of wind speed at 20, 30 and 40 m above the ground for the first time in Saudi Arabia in particular and, to the best of the authors' knowledge, in the Gulf region in general. The paper also presents air density values calculated using the measured air temperature and surface pressure and the effects of wind shear factor on energy production from wind machines of different sizes. The measured data used in the study covered a period of almost three years between June 17, 1995 and December 1998. An overall mean value of wind shear coefficient of 0.194 can be used with confidence to calculate the wind speed at different heights if measured values are known at one height. The study showed that the wind shear coefficient is significantly influenced by seasonal and diurnal changes. Hence, for precise estimations of wind speed at a height, both monthly or seasonal and hourly or night time and day time average values of wind shear coefficient must be used. It is suggested that the wind shear coefficients must be calculated either (i) using long term average values of wind speed at different heights or (ii) using those half hourly mean values of wind speed for which the wind shear coefficient lies in the range 0 and 0.51. The air density, calculated using measured temperature and pressure was found to be 1.18 kg/m 3 . The air density values were also found to vary with the season of the year and hour of the day, and hence, care must be taken when precise calculations are to be made. The air density values, as shown in this paper, have no significant variation with height. The energy production analysis showed that the actual wind shear coefficient presented in this paper produced 6% more energy compared to that obtained using the 1/7 power law. Similarly, higher plant capacity factors were obtained with the wind shear factor of 0.194 compared to that with 0.143

  2. Registered nurse leadership style and confidence in delegation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccomano, Scott J; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve

    2011-05-01

      Leadership and confidence in delegation are two important explanatory constructs of nursing practice. The relationship between these constructs, however, is not clearly understood. To be successful in their roles as leaders, regardless of their experience, registered nurses (RNs) need to understand how to best delegate. The present study explored and described the relationship between RN leadership styles, demographic variables and confidence in delegation in a community teaching hospital. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, RNs employed in one acute care hospital completed questionnaires that measured leadership style [Path-Goal Leadership Questionnaire (PGLQ)] and confidence in delegating patient care tasks [Confidence and Intent to Delegate Scale (CIDS)]. Contrary to expectations, the data did not confirm a relationship between confidence in delegating tasks to unlicensed assistive personnel (UAPs) and leadership style. Nurses who were diploma or associate degree prepared were initially less confident in delegating tasks to UAPs as compared with RNs holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Further, after 5 years of clinical nursing experience, nurses with less educational experience reported more confidence in delegating tasks as compared with RNs with more educational experience. The lack of a relationship between leadership style and confidence in delegating patient care tasks were discussed in terms of the PGLQ classification criteria and hospital unit differences. As suggested by the significant two-way interaction between educational preparation and clinical nursing experience, changes in the nurse's confidence in delegating patient care tasks to UAPs was a dynamic changing variable that resulted from the interplay between amount of educational preparation and years of clinical nursing experience in this population of nurses. Clearly, generalizability of these findings to nurses outside the US is questionable, thus nurse managers must be familiar

  3. Determining the confidence levels of sensor outputs using neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broten, G.S.; Wood, H.C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for determining the confidence level of a sensor output using multi-sensor arrays, sensor fusion and artificial neural networks. The authors have shown in previous work that sensor fusion and artificial neural networks can be used to learn the relationships between the outputs of an array of simulated partially selective sensors and the individual analyte concentrations in a mixture of analyses. Other researchers have shown that an array of partially selective sensors can be used to determine the individual gas concentrations in a gaseous mixture. The research reported in this paper shows that it is possible to extract confidence level information from an array of partially selective sensors using artificial neural networks. The confidence level of a sensor output is defined as a numeric value, ranging from 0% to 100%, that indicates the confidence associated with a output of a given sensor. A three layer back-propagation neural network was trained on a subset of the sensor confidence level space, and was tested for its ability to generalize, where the confidence level space is defined as all possible deviations from the correct sensor output. A learning rate of 0.1 was used and no momentum terms were used in the neural network. This research has shown that an artificial neural network can accurately estimate the confidence level of individual sensors in an array of partially selective sensors. This research has also shown that the neural network's ability to determine the confidence level is influenced by the complexity of the sensor's response and that the neural network is able to estimate the confidence levels even if more than one sensor is in error. The fundamentals behind this research could be applied to other configurations besides arrays of partially selective sensors, such as an array of sensors separated spatially. An example of such a configuration could be an array of temperature sensors in a tank that is not in

  4. A drying coefficient for building materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheffler, Gregor Albrecht; Plagge, Rudolf

    2009-01-01

    coefficient is defined which can be determined based on measured drying data. The correlation of this coefficient with the water absorption and the vapour diffusion coefficient is analyzed and its additional information content is critically challenged. As result, a drying coefficient has been derived......The drying experiment is an important element of the hygrothermal characterisation of building materials. Contrary to other moisture transport experiments as the vapour diffusion and the water absorption test, it is until now not possible to derive a simple coefficient for the drying. However......, in many cases such a coefficient would be highly appreciated, e.g. in interaction of industry and research or for the distinction and selection of suitable building materials throughout design and practise. This article first highlights the importance of drying experiments for hygrothermal...

  5. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  6. Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy Under Sticky Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaylson Jair da Silveira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We derive a best-reply monetary policy when the confidence by price setters on the monetary authority’s commitment to price level targeting may be both incomplete and sticky. We find that complete confidence (or full credibility is not a necessary condition for the achievement of a price level target even when heterogeneity in firms’ price level expectations is endogenously time-varying and may emerge as a long-run equilibrium outcome. In fact, in the absence of exogenous perturbations to the dynamic of confidence building, it is the achievement of a price level target for long enough that, due to stickiness in the state of confidence, rather ensures the conquering of full credibility. This result has relevant implications for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of price stability. One implication is that setting a price level target matters more as a means to provide monetary policy with a sharper focus on price stability than as a device to conquer credibility. As regards the conquering of credibility for monetary policy, it turns out that actions speak louder than words, as the continuing achievement of price stability is what ultimately performs better as a confidence-building device.

  7. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  8. Kangaroo Care Education Effects on Nurses' Knowledge and Skills Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almutairi, Wedad Matar; Ludington-Hoe, Susan M

    2016-11-01

    Less than 20% of the 996 NICUs in the United States routinely practice kangaroo care, due in part to the inadequate knowledge and skills confidence of nurses. Continuing education improves knowledge and skills acquisition, but the effects of a kangaroo care certification course on nurses' knowledge and skills confidence are unknown. A pretest-posttest quasi-experiment was conducted. The Kangaroo Care Knowledge and Skills Confidence Tool was administered to 68 RNs at a 2.5-day course about kangaroo care evidence and skills. Measures of central tendency, dispersion, and paired t tests were conducted on 57 questionnaires. The nurses' characteristics were varied. The mean posttest Knowledge score (M = 88.54, SD = 6.13) was significantly higher than the pretest score (M = 78.7, SD = 8.30), t [54] = -9.1, p = .000), as was the posttest Skills Confidence score (pretest M = 32.06, SD = 3.49; posttest M = 26.80, SD = 5.22), t [53] = -8.459, p = .000). The nurses' knowledge and skills confidence of kangaroo care improved following continuing education, suggesting a need for continuing education in this area. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2016;47(11):518-524. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  9. Institutional Confidence in the United States: Attitudes of Secular Americans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabella Kasselstrand

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The First Amendment to the United States’ Constitution addresses freedom of religion and the separation of church and state. However, the historical influence of religion in laws, policies, and political representation have left secular individuals feeling excluded. At the same time, levels of confidence in social and political institutions in the United States are at an all-time low. This begs the question: Is there a relationship between secularity and confidence in various social and political institutions (e.g. the armed forces, churches, major companies, government, police, and political parties? This question is examined using data on the United States from the World Values Survey from 1995–2011. While controlling for a range of key demographics, the findings show a negative relationship between secularity and institutional confidence. More specifically, atheists and nonreligious individuals are less likely than those who are religious to have confidence in all six institutions. Based on previous literature and the empirical evidence presented in this study, we argue that overall lower levels of institutional confidence among secular Americans is an outcome of the exclusion of such individuals from American social life. Thus, it highlights the importance of addressing the stereotypes and prejudice that this minority group faces.

  10. Nurse leader certification preparation: how are confidence levels impacted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junger, Stacey; Trinkle, Nicole; Hall, Norma

    2016-09-01

    The aim was to examine the effect of a nurse leader certification preparation course on the confidence levels of the participants. Limited literature is available regarding nurse leader development and certifications. Barriers exist related to lack of confidence, high cost, time and lack of access to a preparation course. Nurse leaders (n = 51) completed a pre- and post-survey addressing confidence levels of participants related to the topics addressed in the nurse leader certification preparation course. There were statistically significant increases in confidence levels related to all course content for the participants. At the time of the study, there were 31.4% of participants intending to sit for the certification examination, and 5 of the 51 participants successfully sat for and passed the examination. A nurse leader certification preparation course increases confidence levels of the participants and removes barriers, thereby increasing the number of certifications obtained. The health-care climate is increasingly complex and nurse leaders need the expertise to navigate the ever-changing health-care environment. Certification in a specialty, such as leadership, serves as an indicator of a high level of competence in the field. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Maximum-confidence discrimination among symmetric qudit states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jimenez, O.; Solis-Prosser, M. A.; Delgado, A.; Neves, L.

    2011-01-01

    We study the maximum-confidence (MC) measurement strategy for discriminating among nonorthogonal symmetric qudit states. Restricting to linearly dependent and equally likely pure states, we find the optimal positive operator valued measure (POVM) that maximizes our confidence in identifying each state in the set and minimizes the probability of obtaining inconclusive results. The physical realization of this POVM is completely determined and it is shown that after an inconclusive outcome, the input states may be mapped into a new set of equiprobable symmetric states, restricted, however, to a subspace of the original qudit Hilbert space. By applying the MC measurement again onto this new set, we can still gain some information about the input states, although with less confidence than before. This leads us to introduce the concept of sequential maximum-confidence (SMC) measurements, where the optimized MC strategy is iterated in as many stages as allowed by the input set, until no further information can be extracted from an inconclusive result. Within each stage of this measurement our confidence in identifying the input states is the highest possible, although it decreases from one stage to the next. In addition, the more stages we accomplish within the maximum allowed, the higher will be the probability of correct identification. We will discuss an explicit example of the optimal SMC measurement applied in the discrimination among four symmetric qutrit states and propose an optical network to implement it.

  12. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

    2015-12-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.

  13. Nurses' training and confidence on deep venous catheterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liachopoulou, A P; Synodinou-Kamilou, E E; Deligiannidi, P G; Giannakopoulou, M; Birbas, K N

    2008-01-01

    The rough estimation of the education and the self-confidence of nurses, both students and professionals, regarding deep venous catheterization in adult patients, the evaluation of the change in self-confidence of one team of students who were trained with a simulator on deep venous catheterization and the correlation of their self-confidence with their performance recorded by the simulator. Seventy-six nurses and one hundred twenty-four undergraduate students participated in the study. Fourty-four University students took part in a two-day educational seminar and were trained on subclavian and femoral vein paracentesis with a simulator and an anatomical model. Three questionnaires were filled in by the participants: one from nurses, one from students of Technological institutions, while the University students filled in the previous questionnaire before their attendance of the seminar, and another questionnaire after having attended it. Impressive results in improving the participants' self-confidence were recorded. However, the weak correlation of their self-confidence with the score automatically provided by the simulator after each user's training obligates us to be particularly cautious about the ability of the users to repeat the action successfully in a clinical environment. Educational courses and simulators are useful educational tools that are likely to shorten but in no case can efface the early phase of the learning curve in clinical setting, substituting the clinical training of inexperienced users.

  14. Apparatus for measurement of coefficient of friction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slifka, A. J.; Siegwarth, J. D.; Sparks, L. L.; Chaudhuri, Dilip K.

    1990-01-01

    An apparatus designed to measure the coefficient of friction in certain controlled atmospheres is described. The coefficient of friction observed during high-load tests was nearly constant, with an average value of 0.56. This value is in general agreement with that found in the literature and also with the initial friction coefficient value of 0.67 measured during self-mated friction of 440C steel in an oxygen environment.

  15. New definition of the cell diffusion coefficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koehler, P.

    1975-01-01

    As was shown in a recent work by Gelbard, the usually applied Benoist definition of the cell diffusion coefficient gives two different values if two different definitions of the cell are made. A new definition is proposed that preserves the neutron balance for the homogenized lattice and that is independent of the cell definition. The resulting diffusion coefficient is identical with the main term of Benoist's diffusion coefficient

  16. Transfer coefficients in ultracold strongly coupled plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobrov, A. A.; Vorob'ev, V. S.; Zelener, B. V.

    2018-03-01

    We use both analytical and molecular dynamic methods for electron transfer coefficients in an ultracold plasma when its temperature is small and the coupling parameter characterizing the interaction of electrons and ions exceeds unity. For these conditions, we use the approach of nearest neighbor to determine the average electron (ion) diffusion coefficient and to calculate other electron transfer coefficients (viscosity and electrical and thermal conductivities). Molecular dynamics simulations produce electronic and ionic diffusion coefficients, confirming the reliability of these results. The results compare favorably with experimental and numerical data from earlier studies.

  17. Comparing linear probability model coefficients across groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Ejrnæs, Mette; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    of the following three components: outcome truncation, scale parameters and distributional shape of the predictor variable. These results point to limitations in using linear probability model coefficients for group comparisons. We also provide Monte Carlo simulations and real examples to illustrate......This article offers a formal identification analysis of the problem in comparing coefficients from linear probability models between groups. We show that differences in coefficients from these models can result not only from genuine differences in effects, but also from differences in one or more...... these limitations, and we suggest a restricted approach to using linear probability model coefficients in group comparisons....

  18. On Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Tegenfeldt, Fredrik

    2005-01-01

    In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this note we present a study of the coverage of this method for the standard Likelihood Ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) construction for a Poisson process with known background and Gaussian or log-Normal distributed uncertainties in the background or signal efficiency. For uncertainties in the signal efficiency of upto 40 % we find over-coverage on the level of 2 to 4 % depending on the size of uncertainties and the region in signal space. Uncertainties in the background generally have smaller effect on the coverage. A considerable smoothing of the coverage curves is observed. A software package is presented which allows fast calculation of the confidence intervals for a variety of assumptions on shape and size of systematic uncertainties for different nuisance paramete...

  19. Exploring Self - Confidence Level of High School Students Doing Sport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurullah Emir Ekinci

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate self-confidence levels of high school students, who do sport, in the extent of their gender, sport branch (individual/team sports and aim for participating in sport (professional/amateur. 185 active high school students from Kutahya voluntarily participated for the study. In the study as data gathering tool self-confidence scale was used. In the evaluation of the data as a hypothesis test Mann Whitney U non parametric test was used. As a result self-confidence levels of participants showed significant differences according to their gender and sport branch but there was no significant difference according to aim for participating in sport.

  20. Building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corden, P.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a few thoughts on the question of building and strengthening confidence and security in Asia, in particular in the area centred on the Korean peninsula. This question includes the process of establishing and implementing confidence- and security-building measures, some of which might involve States other than North and South Korea. The development of CSBMs has now been well established in Europe, and there are encouraging signs that such measures are taking hold in other areas of the world, including in Korea. Consequently there is a fairly rich mine of information, precedent and experience from which to draw in focusing on the particular subject at hand. In these remarks the concept of confidence- and security-building is briefly addressed and measures are examined that have proven useful in other circumstances and review some possibilities that appear of interest in the present context

  1. Perceptual learning effect on decision and confidence thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solovey, Guillermo; Shalom, Diego; Pérez-Schuster, Verónica; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-10-01

    Practice can enhance of perceptual sensitivity, a well-known phenomenon called perceptual learning. However, the effect of practice on subjective perception has received little attention. We approach this problem from a visual psychophysics and computational modeling perspective. In a sequence of visual search experiments, subjects significantly increased the ability to detect a "trained target". Before and after training, subjects performed two psychophysical protocols that parametrically vary the visibility of the "trained target": an attentional blink and a visual masking task. We found that confidence increased after learning only in the attentional blink task. Despite large differences in some observables and task settings, we identify common mechanisms for decision-making and confidence. Specifically, our behavioral results and computational model suggest that perceptual ability is independent of processing time, indicating that changes in early cortical representations are effective, and learning changes decision criteria to convey choice and confidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Nearest unlike neighbor (NUN): an aid to decision confidence estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasarathy, Belur V.

    1995-09-01

    The concept of nearest unlike neighbor (NUN), proposed and explored previously in the design of nearest neighbor (NN) based decision systems, is further exploited in this study to develop a measure of confidence in the decisions made by NN-based decision systems. This measure of confidence, on the basis of comparison with a user-defined threshold, may be used to determine the acceptability of the decision provided by the NN-based decision system. The concepts, associated methodology, and some illustrative numerical examples using the now classical Iris data to bring out the ease of implementation and effectiveness of the proposed innovations are presented.

  3. Building, measuring and improving public confidence in the nuclear regulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    An important factor for public confidence in the nuclear regulator is the general public trust of the government and its representatives, which is clearly not the same in all countries. Likewise, cultural differences between countries can be considerable, and similar means of communication between government authorities and the public may not be universally effective. Nevertheless, this workshop identified a number of common principles for the communication of nuclear regulatory decisions that can be recommended to all regulators. They have been cited in particular for their ability to help build, measure and/or improve overall public confidence in the nuclear regulator. (author)

  4. Lower Confidence Bounds for the Probabilities of Correct Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radhey S. Singh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We extend the results of Gupta and Liang (1998, derived for location parameters, to obtain lower confidence bounds for the probability of correctly selecting the t best populations (PCSt simultaneously for all t=1,…,k−1 for the general scale parameter models, where k is the number of populations involved in the selection problem. The application of the results to the exponential and normal probability models is discussed. The implementation of the simultaneous lower confidence bounds for PCSt is illustrated through real-life datasets.

  5. Effect of False Confidence on Asset Allocation Decisions of Households

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swarn Chatterjee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates whether false confidence, as characterized by a high level of personal mastery and a low level of intelligence (IQ, results in frequent investor trading and subsequent investor wealth erosion across time. Using the National Longitudinal Survey (NLSY79, change in wealth and asset allocation across time is modeled as a function of various behavioral, socio-economic and demographic variables drawn from prior literature.  Findings of this research reveal that false confidence is indeed a predictor of trading activity in individual investment assets, and it also has a negative impact on individual wealth creation across time.

  6. Confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schinkel, Stefan; Marwan, N.; Dimigen, O.; Kurths, J.

    2009-01-01

    In the recent past, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) has gained an increasing interest in various research areas. The complexity measures the RQA provides have been useful in describing and analysing a broad range of data. It is known to be rather robust to noise and nonstationarities. Yet, one key question in empirical research concerns the confidence bounds of measured data. In the present Letter we suggest a method for estimating the confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures. We study the applicability of the suggested method with model and real-life data.

  7. Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younes, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ratkiewicz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ressler, J. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-28

    Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

  8. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-11-01

    MCNP's criticality methodology and some basic statistics are reviewed. Confidence intervals are discussed, as well as how to build them and their importance in the presentation of a Monte Carlo result. The combination of MCNP's three k eff estimators is shown, theoretically and empirically, by statistical studies and examples, to be the best k eff estimator. The method of combining estimators is based on a solid theoretical foundation, namely, the Gauss-Markov Theorem in regard to the least squares method. The confidence intervals of the combined estimator are also shown to have correct coverage rates for the examples considered

  9. Older widows and married women: their intimates and confidants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babchuk, N; Anderson, T B

    1989-01-01

    Interview data obtained from 132 women sixty-five and older reveals that the widows and married women have a comparable number of primary friends. Being over age seventy-four influences the size of the friendship network for widows but not married women. The primary friendships of widows and married women parallel each other in terms of endurance and stability. Primary ties with men are the exception rather than the norm, for both widows and married women. Widows do differ from married women in that the former rely on confidant friends to a greater extent. Ties between older women and their confidants are characterized by norms of reciprocity.

  10. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  11. The empirical Gaia G-band extinction coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielski, C.; Babusiaux, C.; Ruiz-Dern, L.; Sartoretti, P.; Arenou, F.

    2018-06-01

    Context. The first Gaia data release unlocked the access to photometric information for 1.1 billion sources in the G-band. Yet, given the high level of degeneracy between extinction and spectral energy distribution for large passbands such as the Gaia G-band, a correction for the interstellar reddening is needed in order to exploit Gaia data. Aims: The purpose of this manuscript is to provide the empirical estimation of the Gaia G-band extinction coefficient kG for both the red giants and main sequence stars in order to be able to exploit the first data release DR1. Methods: We selected two samples of single stars: one for the red giants and one for the main sequence. Both samples are the result of a cross-match between Gaia DR1 and 2MASS catalogues; they consist of high-quality photometry in the G-, J- and KS-bands. These samples were complemented by temperature and metallicity information retrieved from APOGEE DR13 and LAMOST DR2 surveys, respectively. We implemented a Markov chain Monte Carlo method where we used (G - KS)0 versus Teff and (J - KS)0 versus (G - KS)0, calibration relations to estimate the extinction coefficient kG and we quantify its corresponding confidence interval via bootstrap resampling. We tested our method on samples of red giants and main sequence stars, finding consistent solutions. Results: We present here the determination of the Gaia extinction coefficient through a completely empirical method. Furthermore we provide the scientific community with a formula for measuring the extinction coefficient as a function of stellar effective temperature, the intrinsic colour (G - KS)0, and absorption.

  12. Resummed coefficient function for the shape function

    OpenAIRE

    Aglietti, U.

    2001-01-01

    We present a leading evaluation of the resummed coefficient function for the shape function. It is also shown that the coefficient function is short-distance-dominated. Our results allow relating the shape function computed on the lattice to the physical QCD distributions.

  13. Problems with Discontinuous Diffusion/Dispersion Coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Ferraris

    2012-01-01

    accurate on smooth solutions and based on a special numerical treatment of the diffusion/dispersion coefficients that makes its application possible also when such coefficients are discontinuous. Numerical experiments confirm the convergence of the numerical approximation and show a good behavior on a set of benchmark problems in two space dimensions.

  14. Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Michael C.; Maeda, Yukiko

    2006-01-01

    The meta-analysis of coefficient alpha across many studies is becoming more common in psychology by a methodology labeled reliability generalization. Existing reliability generalization studies have not used the sampling distribution of coefficient alpha for precision weighting and other common meta-analytic procedures. A framework is provided for…

  15. Alternatives to Pearson's and Spearman's Correlation Coefficients

    OpenAIRE

    Smarandache, Florentin

    2008-01-01

    This article presents several alternatives to Pearson's correlation coefficient and many examples. In the samples where the rank in a discrete variable counts more than the variable values, the mixtures that we propose of Pearson's and Spearman's correlation coefficients give better results.

  16. Anomaly coefficients: Their calculation and congruences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braden, H.W.

    1988-01-01

    A new method for the calculation of anomaly coefficients is presented. For su(n) some explicit and general expressions are given for these. In particular, certain congruences are discovered and investigated among the leading anomaly coefficients. As an application of these congruences, the absence of global six-dimensional gauge anomalies is shown

  17. Prediction of friction coefficients for gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, M. F.

    1969-01-01

    Empirical relations are used for correlating laminar and turbulent friction coefficients for gases, with large variations in the physical properties, flowing through smooth tubes. These relations have been used to correlate friction coefficients for hydrogen, helium, nitrogen, carbon dioxide and air.

  18. A gain-coefficient switched Alexandrite laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chris J; Van der Slot, Peter J M; Boller, Klaus-J

    2013-01-01

    We report on a gain-coefficient switched Alexandrite laser. An electro-optic modulator is used to switch between high and low gain states by making use of the polarization dependent gain of Alexandrite. In gain-coefficient switched mode, the laser produces 85 ns pulses with a pulse energy of 240 mJ at a repetition rate of 5 Hz.

  19. Helioseismic Solar Cycle Changes and Splitting Coefficients

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tribpo

    Abstract. Using the GONG data for a period over four years, we have studied the variation of frequencies and splitting coefficients with solar cycle. Frequencies and even-order coefficients are found to change signi- ficantly with rising phase of the solar cycle. We also find temporal varia- tions in the rotation rate near the solar ...

  20. Implications of NGA for NEHRP site coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, Roger D.

    2012-01-01

    Three proposals are provided to update tables 11.4-1 and 11.4-2 of Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures (7-10), by the American Society of Civil Engineers (2010) (ASCE/SEI 7-10), with site coefficients implied directly by NGA (Next Generation Attenuation) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Proposals include a recommendation to use straight-line interpolation to infer site coefficients at intermediate values of ̅vs (average shear velocity). Site coefficients are recommended to ensure consistency with ASCE/SEI 7-10 MCER (Maximum Considered Earthquake) seismic-design maps and simplified site-specific design spectra procedures requiring site classes with associated tabulated site coefficients and a reference site class with unity site coefficients. Recommended site coefficients are confirmed by independent observations of average site amplification coefficients inferred with respect to an average ground condition consistent with that used for the MCER maps. The NGA coefficients recommended for consideration are implied directly by the NGA GMPEs and do not require introduction of additional models.

  1. Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

    2011-01-01

    Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

  2. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Document Server

    Vanden Broeck, Renilde

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC) in 2007. (1/2 page)

  3. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in 2007." (1/2 page)

  4. Expanding Horizons--Into the Future with Confidence!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, Valerie

    2006-01-01

    Gifted students often show a deep interest in and profound concern for the complex issues of society. Given the leadership potential of these students and their likely responsibility for solving future social problems, they need to develop this awareness and also a sense of confidence in dealing with future issues. The Future Problem Solving…

  5. "Depressive Realism" assessed via Confidence in Decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, J A

    1996-08-01

    There are two currently influential views regarding the link between cognitive distortions and depression. The first states that depressed individuals perceive the world and themselves with a strong negative bias or distortion, and that mentally healthy individuals perceive the word with relative accuracy. The second ''depressive realism'' camp argues that healthy individuals are positively biased and the depressed are relatively unbiased and hence, more realistic. In the present investigation, subjects suffering from major depression, subjects recovered from major depression, and a group of healthy controls were examined with regard to their confidence in answering each of 99 general knowledge questions. Confidence ratings were analysed separately according to correct or incorrect responses. There were no significant differences in performance (i.e. accuracy of answer between the three groups). When answering correctly, depressed subjects were significantly less confident than healthy control subjects. On answering incorrectly, none of the three groups were significantly different in their confidence ratings. These findings support the cognitive distortion view of depression and provide no evidence of ''depressive realism''.

  6. Confidence Testing for Knowledge-Based Global Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal advocates the position that the use of confidence wagering (CW) during testing can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during between-subject assessments. Data revealed female students were more favorable to taking risks when making CW and less inclined toward risk aversion than their male counterparts. Student…

  7. Confidence building on euro convergence : Evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992–1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  8. Confidence building on Euro convergence: evidence from currency options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.; Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied

  9. A monitor for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.

    2008-01-01

    Despite the fact that in the developed countries food safety standards are higher than ever, food safety incidents continue to occur frequently. The accumulation of food safety incidents might affect general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Therefore, in this thesis, the concept of general

  10. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  11. SOCIAL MEDIA – VITAL INSTRUMENT IN GAINING CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela-Cristina VOICU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given that, currently, the consumer has become more demanding and organizations face some of the greatest challenges due to the economic climate of recent years, the need to build and cultivate strong relationships has become vital not only for the company's success but also for its survival. And solid relationships are built over time through confidence. Trust is one of the most important elements in the process of purchasing and consumer loyalty; it is difficult to obtain but easy to lose. Companies that are enjoying a high degree of confidence benefit from best quotations for their shares, higher profits and a better retention of the best employees. The effects of the lack of confidence are obvious (unsatisfied consumers, lost sales and very expensive for the company. In this context, through the following paper we seek to bring more understanding on how a company can gain the confidence of consumers given that the forms of communication that consumers prefer and that are gaining momentum currently, are taking place online, especially in the social media.

  12. The Dark and Bloody Mystery: Building Basic Writers' Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sledd, Robert

    While the roots of students' fear of writing go deep, students fear most the surface of writing. They fear that a person's language indicates the state not only of the mind but of the soul--thus their writing can make them look stupid and morally depraved. This fear of error and lack of confidence prevent students from developing a command of the…

  13. Role perception, job-related tension and organisational confidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Role perception, job-related tension and organisational confidence of the village extension workers in Nsukka zone of Enugu State Agricultural Development ... Data for the study were collected through structured questionnaire administered on 44 VEWS selected, using ... their role-expectations as being important. Many of ...

  14. Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonett, Douglas G.

    2006-01-01

    Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

  15. Maintaining public confidence in UK nuclear safety regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, L.

    2001-01-01

    The key to maintaining stake holder confidence is competence and having the resources necessary to not only carry out regulatory functions effectively, but also to keep the public informed and respond to their questions. This does not come cheap but it is a price well worth paying. (N.C.)

  16. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  17. Confidence Judgments in Children's and Adults' Event Recall and Suggestibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roebers, Claudia M.

    2002-01-01

    Three studies investigated the role of 8- and 10-year-olds' and adults' metacognitive monitoring and control processes for unbiased event recall tasks and suggestibility. Findings suggested strong tendencies to overestimate confidence regardless of age and question format. Children did not lack principal metacognitive competencies when questions…

  18. Graphical interpretation of confidence curves in rankit plots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Blaabjerg, Ole; Andersen, Marianne

    2004-01-01

    A well-known transformation from the bell-shaped Gaussian (normal) curve to a straight line in the rankit plot is investigated, and a tool for evaluation of the distribution of reference groups is presented. It is based on the confidence intervals for percentiles of the calculated Gaussian distri...

  19. Performance of classification confidence measures in dynamic classifier systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Štefka, D.; Holeňa, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 4 (2013), s. 299-319 ISSN 1210-0552 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-17187S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : classifier combining * dynamic classifier systems * classification confidence Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.412, year: 2013

  20. Uncertainty and confidence from the triple-network perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    White, Thomas P.; Engen, Nina Helkjær; Sørensen, Susan

    2014-01-01

    of environmental conditions; (ii) those regions whose activity is robustly affected by our subjective confidence; and (iii) those regions differentially activated at these contrasting times. In further meta-analyses the consistency of activation between these judgement types was assessed. Increased activation...

  1. Confidence in Forced-Choice Recognition: What Underlies the Ratings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A.; Hanczakowski, Maciej

    2017-01-01

    Two-alternative forced-choice recognition tests are commonly used to assess recognition accuracy that is uncontaminated by changes in bias. In such tests, participants are asked to endorse the studied item out of 2 presented alternatives. Participants may be further asked to provide confidence judgments for their recognition decisions. It is often…

  2. Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

    2017-02-01

    With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

  3. Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

    2008-10-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce. Copyright 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

  4. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  5. Faculty Expressions of (No) Confidence in Institutional Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frantz, Alan C.; Lawson, Jonathan N.

    2017-01-01

    Although institutions of higher education rarely crumble and fall in the wake of votes of no confidence in their leadership--in presidents, senior administrators, or even governing boards--those expressions of discontent do have meaning. They suggest something awry at the institution, and even the potential to precipitate change. They also present…

  6. Frontline nurse managers' confidence and self-efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyk, Jennifer; Siedlecki, Sandra L; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

    2016-05-01

    This study was focused on determining relationships between confidence levels and self-efficacy among nurse managers. Frontline nurse managers have a pivotal role in delivering high-quality patient care while managing the associated costs and resources. The competency and skill of nurse managers affect every aspect of patient care and staff well-being as nurse managers are largely responsible for creating work environments in which clinical nurses are able to provide high-quality, patient-centred, holistic care. A descriptive, correlational survey design was used; 85 nurse managers participated. Years in a formal leadership role and confidence scores were found to be significant predictors of self-efficacy scores. Experience as a nurse manager is an important component of confidence and self-efficacy. There is a need to develop educational programmes for nurse managers to enhance their self-confidence and self-efficacy, and to maintain experienced nurse managers in the role. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Academic Behavioural Confidence: A Comparison of Medical and Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Lalage; Sander, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Introduction. Sander, Stevenson, King and Coates (2000) identified differences between medical students in a conventional university and psychology students in a post-1992 university in their responses to different styles of learning and teaching. Method. It had been hypothesised that differing levels of confidence explained why the former felt…

  8. Gender Difference of Confidence in Using Technology for Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yau, Hon Keung; Cheng, Alison Lai Fong

    2012-01-01

    Past studies have found male students to have more confidence in using technology for learning than do female students. Males tend to have more positive attitudes about the use of technology for learning than do females. According to the Women's Foundation (2006), few studies examined gender relevant research in Hong Kong. It also appears that no…

  9. Concerns and developmental needs of highly confident and less ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of this study was based on three assumptions, namely 1) that coaching efficacy (confidence specific to the task of coaching) impacts the performance of coaches, 2) that coaching efficacy is influenced by the individual's procedural and declarative knowledge on coaching, and 3) that coaches do their work ...

  10. Parametric change point estimation, testing and confidence interval ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In many applications like finance, industry and medicine, it is important to consider that the model parameters may undergo changes at unknown moment in time. This paper deals with estimation, testing and confidence interval of a change point for a univariate variable which is assumed to be normally distributed. To detect ...

  11. Exploring the influence of Self-Confidence in Product Sketching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Passel, Pepijn; Eggink, Wouter; Bohemia, E.; Ion, B.; Kovacevic, A.

    2013-01-01

    The development of a student’s skills during design education partly depends on the amount of selfconfidence. Optimizing the speed and level of growth can be done by influencing factors related to self-confidence that students have to cope with throughout their studies. Six main factors can be

  12. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General Provisions...

  13. Can traceability improve consumers' confidence in food quality and safety?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijswijk, van W.; Cornelisse-Vermaat, J.R.; Frewer, L.J.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract This paper investigates whether the implementation of traceability systems in line with the European General Food Law as well as food labelling laws related to allergens can impact on consumer confidence in food quality and safety. It aims to give insight into consumer demands regarding

  14. A general model of confidence building: analysis and implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilgour, D.M.

    1998-01-01

    For more than two decades, security approaches in Europe have included confidence building. Many have argued that Confidence-Building Measures (CBMS) played an essential role in the enormous transformations that took place there. Thus, it is hardly,surprising that CBMs have been proposed as measures to reduce tensions and transform security relationships elsewhere in the world. The move toward wider application of CBMs has strengthened recently, as conventional military, diplomatic, and humanitarian approaches seem to have failed to address problems associated with peace-building and peace support operations. There is, however, a serious problem. We don't really know why, or even how, CBMs work. Consequently, we have no reliable way to design CBMs that would be appropriate in substance, form, and timing for regions culturally, geographically, and militarily different from Europe. Lacking a solid understanding of confidence building, we are handicapped in our efforts to extend its successes to the domain of peace building and peace support. To paraphrase Macintosh, if we don't know how CBMs succeeded in the past, then we are unlikely to be good at maintaining, improving, or extending them. The specific aim of this project is to step into this gap, using the methods of game theory to clarify some aspects of the underlying logic of confidence building. Formal decision models will be shown to contribute new and valuable insights that will assist in the design of CBMs to contribute to new problems and in new arenas. (author)

  15. The role of consumer confidence in creating customer loyalty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ou, Yi-Chun; de Vries, Lisette; Wiesel, Thorsten; Verhoef, Pieter

    How can firms retain customers during recessions? To answer this question, we investigate the moderating role of consumer confidence (CC) on the effects of three types of crucial customer loyalty strategies. These strategies are value equity (VE), brand equity (BE), and relationship equity (RE),

  16. Gini coefficient as a life table function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a toolkit for measuring and analyzing inter-individual inequality in length of life by Gini coefficient. Gini coefficient and four other inequality measures are defined on the length-of-life distribution. Properties of these measures and their empirical testing on mortality data suggest a possibility for different judgements about the direction of changes in the degree of inequality by using different measures. A new computational procedure for the estimation of Gini coefficient from life tables is developed and tested on about four hundred real life tables. The estimates of Gini coefficient are precise enough even for abridged life tables with the final age group of 85+. New formulae have been developed for the decomposition of differences between Gini coefficients by age and cause of death. A new method for decomposition of age-components into effects of mortality and composition of population by group is developed. Temporal changes in the effects of elimination of causes of death on Gini coefficient are analyzed. Numerous empirical examples show: Lorenz curves for Sweden, Russia and Bangladesh in 1995, proportional changes in Gini coefficient and four other measures of inequality for the USA in 1950-1995 and for Russia in 1959-2000. Further shown are errors of estimates of Gini coefficient when computed from various types of mortality data of France, Japan, Sweden and the USA in 1900-95, decompositions of the USA-UK difference in life expectancies and Gini coefficients by age and cause of death in 1997. As well, effects of elimination of major causes of death in the UK in 1951-96 on Gini coefficient, age-specific effects of mortality and educational composition of the Russian population on changes in life expectancy and Gini coefficient between 1979 and 1989. Illustrated as well are variations in life expectancy and Gini coefficient across 32 countries in 1996-1999 and associated changes in life expectancy and Gini

  17. Determination of the surface drag coefficient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahrt, L.; Vickers, D.; Sun, J.L.

    2001-01-01

    This study examines the dependence of the surface drag coefficient on stability, wind speed, mesoscale modulation of the turbulent flux and method of calculation of the drag coefficient. Data sets over grassland, sparse grass, heather and two forest sites are analyzed. For significantly unstable...... conditions, the drag coefficient does not depend systematically on z/L but decreases with wind speed for fixed intervals of z/L, where L is the Obukhov length. Even though the drag coefficient for weak wind conditions is sensitive to the exact method of calculation and choice of averaging time, the decrease...... of the drag coefficient with wind speed occurs for all of the calculation methods. A classification of flux calculation methods is constructed, which unifies the most common previous approaches. The roughness length corresponding to the usual Monin-Obukhov stability functions decreases with increasing wind...

  18. Diffusion coefficients of paracetamol in aqueous solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribeiro, Ana C.F.; Barros, Marisa C.F.; Veríssimo, Luís M.P.; Santos, Cecilia I.A.V.; Cabral, Ana M.T.D.P.V.; Gaspar, Gualter D.; Esteso, Miguel A.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Mutual diffusion coefficients of paracetamol in aqueous dilute solutions. ► Influence of the thermodynamic factors on the variation of their mutual diffusion coefficients. ► Estimation of the mutual limiting diffusion coefficients of the molecular, D m 0 , and ionized forms, D ± 0 , of this drug. - Abstract: Binary mutual diffusion coefficients measured by the Taylor dispersion method, for aqueous solutions of paracetamol (PA) at concentrations from (0.001 to 0.050) mol·dm −3 at T = 298.15 K, are reported. From the Nernst–Hartley equation and our experimental results, the limiting diffusion coefficient of this drug and its thermodynamic factors are estimated, thereby contributing in this way to a better understanding of the structure of such systems and of their thermodynamic behaviour in aqueous solution at different concentrations.

  19. Estimation of the simple correlation coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shieh, Gwowen

    2010-11-01

    This article investigates some unfamiliar properties of the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient for the estimation of simple correlation coefficient. Although Pearson's r is biased, except for limited situations, and the minimum variance unbiased estimator has been proposed in the literature, researchers routinely employ the sample correlation coefficient in their practical applications, because of its simplicity and popularity. In order to support such practice, this study examines the mean squared errors of r and several prominent formulas. The results reveal specific situations in which the sample correlation coefficient performs better than the unbiased and nearly unbiased estimators, facilitating recommendation of r as an effect size index for the strength of linear association between two variables. In addition, related issues of estimating the squared simple correlation coefficient are also considered.

  20. Planning an Availability Demonstration Test with Consideration of Confidence Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Müller

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The full service life of a technical product or system is usually not completed after an initial failure. With appropriate measures, the system can be returned to a functional state. Availability is an important parameter for evaluating such repairable systems: Failure and repair behaviors are required to determine this availability. These data are usually given as mean value distributions with a certain confidence level. Consequently, the availability value also needs to be expressed with a confidence level. This paper first highlights the bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation (BMCS for availability demonstration and inference with confidence intervals based on limited failure and repair data. The BMCS enables point-, steady-state and average availability to be determined with a confidence level based on the pure samples or mean value distributions in combination with the corresponding sample size of failure and repair behavior. Furthermore, the method enables individual sample sizes to be used. A sample calculation of a system with Weibull-distributed failure behavior and a sample of repair times is presented. Based on the BMCS, an extended, new procedure is introduced: the “inverse bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation” (IBMCS to be used for availability demonstration tests with consideration of confidence levels. The IBMCS provides a test plan comprising the required number of failures and repair actions that must be observed to demonstrate a certain availability value. The concept can be applied to each type of availability and can also be applied to the pure samples or distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. It does not require special types of distribution. In other words, for example, a Weibull, a lognormal or an exponential distribution can all be considered as distribution functions of failure and repair behavior. After presenting the IBMCS, a sample calculation will be carried out and the potential of the BMCS and the IBMCS

  1. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xueping

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

  2. Evaluation of temperature coefficients of reactivity for 233U--thorium fueled HTGR lattices. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newman, D.F.; Leonard, B.R. Jr.; Trapp, T.J.; Gore, B.F.; Kottwitz, D.A.; Thompson, J.K.; Purcell, W.L.; Stewart, K.B.

    1977-05-01

    A comparison of calculated and measured neutron multiplication factors as a function of temperature was made for three graphite-moderated lattices in the High Temperature Lattice Test Reactor (HTLTR) using 233 UO 2 --ThO 2 fuels in varying amounts and configurations. Correlation of neutronic analysis methods and cross section data with the experimental measurements forms the basis for assessing the accuracy of the methods and data and developing confidence in the ability to predict the temperature coefficient of reactivity for various High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) conditions in which 233 U and thorium are present in the fuel. The calculated values of k/sub infinity/(T) were correlated with measured values using two least-squares-fitted correlation coefficients: (1) a normalization factor, and (2) a temperature coefficient bias factor. These correlations indicate the existence of a negative (nonconservative) bias in temperature coefficients of reactivity calculated using ENDF/B-IV cross section data

  3. Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-09-01

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

  4. Development of database on the distribution coefficient. 1. Collection of the distribution coefficient data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takebe, Shinichi; Abe, Masayoshi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2001-03-01

    The distribution coefficient is very important parameter for environmental impact assessment on the disposal of radioactive waste arising from research institutes. The literature survey in the country was mainly carried out for the purpose of selecting the reasonable distribution coefficient value on the utilization of this value in the safety evaluation. This report was arranged much informations on the distribution coefficient for inputting to the database for each literature, and was summarized as a literature information data on the distribution coefficient. (author)

  5. Variation in aerodynamic coefficients with altitude

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faiza Shahid

    Full Text Available Precise aerodynamics performance prediction plays key role for a flying vehicle to get its mission completed within desired accuracy. Aerodynamic coefficients for same Mach number can be different at different altitude due to difference in Reynolds number. Prediction of these aerodynamics coefficients can be made through experiments, analytical solution or Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD. Advancements in computational power have generated the concept of using CFD as a virtual Wind Tunnel (WT, hence aerodynamic performance prediction in present study is based upon CFD (numerical test rig. Simulations at different altitudes for a range of Mach numbers with zero angle of attack are performed to predict axial force coefficient behavior with altitude (Reynolds number. Similar simulations for a fixed Mach number ‘3’ and a range of angle of attacks are also carried out to envisage the variation in normal force and pitching moment coefficients with altitude (Reynolds number. Results clearly depict that the axial force coefficient is a function of altitude (Reynolds number and increase as altitude increases, especially for subsonic region. Variation in axial force coefficient with altitude (Reynolds number slightly increases for larger values of angle of attacks. Normal force and pitching moment coefficients do not depend on altitude (Reynolds number at smaller values of angle of attacks but show slight decrease as altitude increases. Present study suggests that variation of normal force and pitching moment coefficients with altitude can be neglected but the variation of axial force coefficient with altitude should be considered for vehicle fly in dense atmosphere. It is recommended to continue this study to more complex configurations for various Mach numbers with side slip and real gas effects. Keywords: Mach number, Reynolds number, Blunt body, Altitude effect, Angle of attacks

  6. Variation in aerodynamic coefficients with altitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahid, Faiza; Hussain, Mukkarum; Baig, Mirza Mehmood; Haq, Ihtram ul

    Precise aerodynamics performance prediction plays key role for a flying vehicle to get its mission completed within desired accuracy. Aerodynamic coefficients for same Mach number can be different at different altitude due to difference in Reynolds number. Prediction of these aerodynamics coefficients can be made through experiments, analytical solution or Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Advancements in computational power have generated the concept of using CFD as a virtual Wind Tunnel (WT), hence aerodynamic performance prediction in present study is based upon CFD (numerical test rig). Simulations at different altitudes for a range of Mach numbers with zero angle of attack are performed to predict axial force coefficient behavior with altitude (Reynolds number). Similar simulations for a fixed Mach number '3' and a range of angle of attacks are also carried out to envisage the variation in normal force and pitching moment coefficients with altitude (Reynolds number). Results clearly depict that the axial force coefficient is a function of altitude (Reynolds number) and increase as altitude increases, especially for subsonic region. Variation in axial force coefficient with altitude (Reynolds number) slightly increases for larger values of angle of attacks. Normal force and pitching moment coefficients do not depend on altitude (Reynolds number) at smaller values of angle of attacks but show slight decrease as altitude increases. Present study suggests that variation of normal force and pitching moment coefficients with altitude can be neglected but the variation of axial force coefficient with altitude should be considered for vehicle fly in dense atmosphere. It is recommended to continue this study to more complex configurations for various Mach numbers with side slip and real gas effects.

  7. Heat transfer coefficient for boiling carbon dioxide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Hans Jørgen Høgaard; Jensen, Per Henrik

    1998-01-01

    Heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop for boiling carbon dioxide (R744) flowing in a horizontal pipe has been measured. The calculated heat transfer coeeficient has been compared with the Chart correlation of Shah. The Chart Correlation predits too low heat transfer coefficient but the ratio...... between the measured and the calculated heat transfer coefficient is nearly constant and equal 1.9. With this factor the correlation predicts the measured data within 14% (RMS). The pressure drop is of the same order as the measuring uncertainty and the pressure drop has not been compared with correlation's....

  8. Virial Coefficients for the Liquid Argon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korth, Micheal; Kim, Saesun

    2014-03-01

    We begin with a geometric model of hard colliding spheres and calculate probability densities in an iterative sequence of calculations that lead to the pair correlation function. The model is based on a kinetic theory approach developed by Shinomoto, to which we added an interatomic potential for argon based on the model from Aziz. From values of the pair correlation function at various values of density, we were able to find viral coefficients of liquid argon. The low order coefficients are in good agreement with theoretical hard sphere coefficients, but appropriate data for argon to which these results might be compared is difficult to find.

  9. Soccer ball lift coefficients via trajectory analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goff, John Eric; Carre, Matt J

    2010-01-01

    We performed experiments in which a soccer ball was launched from a machine while two high-speed cameras recorded portions of the trajectory. Using the trajectory data and published drag coefficients, we extracted lift coefficients for a soccer ball. We determined lift coefficients for a wide range of spin parameters, including several spin parameters that have not been obtained by today's wind tunnels. Our trajectory analysis technique is not only a valuable tool for professional sports scientists, it is also accessible to students with a background in undergraduate-level classical mechanics.

  10. Soccer ball lift coefficients via trajectory analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goff, John Eric [Department of Physics, Lynchburg College, Lynchburg, VA 24501 (United States); Carre, Matt J, E-mail: goff@lynchburg.ed [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 3JD (United Kingdom)

    2010-07-15

    We performed experiments in which a soccer ball was launched from a machine while two high-speed cameras recorded portions of the trajectory. Using the trajectory data and published drag coefficients, we extracted lift coefficients for a soccer ball. We determined lift coefficients for a wide range of spin parameters, including several spin parameters that have not been obtained by today's wind tunnels. Our trajectory analysis technique is not only a valuable tool for professional sports scientists, it is also accessible to students with a background in undergraduate-level classical mechanics.

  11. Validation to Portuguese of the Scale of Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Rodrigo Guimarães dos Santos; Mazzo, Alessandra; Martins, José Carlos Amado; Baptista, Rui Carlos Negrão; Girão, Fernanda Berchelli; Mendes, Isabel Amélia Costa

    2015-01-01

    Translate and validate to Portuguese the Scale of Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning. Methodological translation and validation study of a research tool. After following all steps of the translation process, for the validation process, the event III Workshop Brazil - Portugal: Care Delivery to Critical Patients was created, promoted by one Brazilian and another Portuguese teaching institution. 103 nurses participated. As to the validity and reliability of the scale, the correlation pattern between the variables, the sampling adequacy test (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin) and the sphericity test (Bartlett) showed good results. In the exploratory factorial analysis (Varimax), item 9 behaved better in factor 1 (Satisfaction) than in factor 2 (Self-confidence in learning). The internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) showed coefficients of 0.86 in factor 1 with six items and 0.77 for factor 2 with 07 items. In Portuguese this tool was called: Escala de Satisfação de Estudantes e Autoconfiança na Aprendizagem. The results found good psychometric properties and a good potential use. The sampling size and specificity are limitations of this study, but future studies will contribute to consolidate the validity of the scale and strengthen its potential use.

  12. Validation to Portuguese of the Scale of Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Rodrigo Guimarães dos Santos; Mazzo, Alessandra; Martins, José Carlos Amado; Baptista, Rui Carlos Negrão; Girão, Fernanda Berchelli; Mendes, Isabel Amélia Costa

    2015-01-01

    Objective: translate and validate to Portuguese the Scale of Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning. Material and Methods: methodological translation and validation study of a research tool. After following all steps of the translation process, for the validation process, the event III Workshop Brazil - Portugal: Care Delivery to Critical Patients was created, promoted by one Brazilian and another Portuguese teaching institution. Results: 103 nurses participated. As to the validity and reliability of the scale, the correlation pattern between the variables, the sampling adequacy test (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin) and the sphericity test (Bartlett) showed good results. In the exploratory factorial analysis (Varimax), item 9 behaved better in factor 1 (Satisfaction) than in factor 2 (Self-confidence in learning). The internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) showed coefficients of 0.86 in factor 1 with six items and 0.77 for factor 2 with 07 items. Conclusion: in Portuguese this tool was called: Escala de Satisfação de Estudantes e Autoconfiança na Aprendizagem. The results found good psychometric properties and a good potential use. The sampling size and specificity are limitations of this study, but future studies will contribute to consolidate the validity of the scale and strengthen its potential use. PMID:26625990

  13. Validation to Portuguese of the Scale of Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Guimarães dos Santos Almeida

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: translate and validate to Portuguese the Scale of Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning. Material and Methods: methodological translation and validation study of a research tool. After following all steps of the translation process, for the validation process, the event III Workshop Brazil - Portugal: Care Delivery to Critical Patients was created, promoted by one Brazilian and another Portuguese teaching institution. Results: 103 nurses participated. As to the validity and reliability of the scale, the correlation pattern between the variables, the sampling adequacy test (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin and the sphericity test (Bartlett showed good results. In the exploratory factorial analysis (Varimax, item 9 behaved better in factor 1 (Satisfaction than in factor 2 (Self-confidence in learning. The internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha showed coefficients of 0.86 in factor 1 with six items and 0.77 for factor 2 with 07 items. Conclusion: in Portuguese this tool was called: Escala de Satisfação de Estudantes e Autoconfiança na Aprendizagem. The results found good psychometric properties and a good potential use. The sampling size and specificity are limitations of this study, but future studies will contribute to consolidate the validity of the scale and strengthen its potential use.

  14. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Power and confidence in professions: lessons for occupational therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Florence A

    2010-12-01

    Powerful professions have the capacity to obtain leadership positions, advocate successfully in the policy arena, and secure the resources necessary to achieve their professional goals. Within the occupational therapy profession, cultivating power and confidence among our practitioners is essential to realize our full capacity for meeting society's occupational needs. Drawing from a historical analysis of the medical and nursing professions, this paper discusses the implications of power and disempowerment among health professions for their practitioners, clients, and public image. Theoretical perspectives on power from social psychology, politics, organizational management, and post-structuralism are introduced and their relevance to the profession of occupational therapy is examined. The paper concludes with recommendations for occupational therapy practitioners to analyze their individual sources of power and evaluate opportunities to develop confidence and secure power for their professional work--in venues both in and outside the workplace.

  16. Radioactive waste and civil society: Toward confidence and efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferte, Jacques de la

    2001-01-01

    Radioactive waste management is a typical area where a confident and efficient relationship between decision makers and civil society is required to achieve progress. The Radioactive waste management community must now learn the lessons and borrow from the good and bad experiences of government and industry in the area of good governance. Key ingredients include not only good science and technology, but also an early association of stakeholders with the waste management development process, so as to care for social values and generate confidence in the public, notably at the local level. The new NEA Forum will now organise its future work around this concept, collecting and sharing the experience among its members, and working together in an on-going multi-year programme

  17. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  18. Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

  19. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earp, Brian D; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt "fails"-does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should "failed" replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing "failed" replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings.

  20. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  1. Confidence Level Computation for Combining Searches with Small Statistics

    OpenAIRE

    Junk, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    This article describes an efficient procedure for computing approximate confidence levels for searches for new particles where the expected signal and background levels are small enough to require the use of Poisson statistics. The results of many independent searches for the same particle may be combined easily, regardless of the discriminating variables which may be measured for the candidate events. The effects of systematic uncertainty in the signal and background models are incorporated ...

  2. Social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in Quebec.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, Thomas G; Bellemare, Christian A; Bédard, Suzanne K; Lemieux, Renald

    2015-02-21

    Access to healthcare in remote areas is difficult and telehealth could be a promising avenue if accepted by the population. The aim of this study is to assess social acceptance and population confidence in telehealth in the Province of Quebec. We conducted a survey using a questionnaire assessing the social acceptance of and confidence level in telehealth. Two strategies were used: 1) paper questionnaires were sent to two hospitals in Quebec; and 2) online questionnaires were randomly sent by a firm specialized in online survey to a representative sample of the population of the Province of Quebec. Respondents were all residents of the Province of Quebec and 18 years and older. Questions were scored with a four-level Likert scale. A total of 1816 questionnaires were analyzed (229 written and 1,587 online questionnaires). The socio-demographic variables in our samples, especially the online questionnaires, were fairly representative of Quebec's population. Overall, social acceptance scored at 77.71% and confidence level at 65.76%. Both scores were higher in the case of treatment (3 scenarios were proposed) vs. diagnosis (p < 0.05). No difference was found when respondents were asked to respond for themselves and for a member of their family, which demonstrates a true interest in telehealth in Quebec. In addition, we found a significant difference (p < 0.05) between written and online questionnaires regarding social acceptance (80.75% vs. 77.33%) and confidence level (74.84% vs. 64.55%). These differences may be due to social desirability or avidity bias in the written questionnaires. Our results suggest that the population in Quebec encourages the development of telehealth for real time diagnosis and long distance treatment for regions deprived of healthcare professionals.

  3. INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASING BALANCE & CONFIDENCE IN OLDER ADULTS: A REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    Foram Dhebar

    2014-01-01

    Elderly is defined as being 65 years of age or older. Geriatrics or geriatric medicine is a specialty that focuses on health care of elderly people. The number of persons above the age of 60 years is fast growing, especially in India. Falls are the leading cause of traumatic brain injury, fractures & the leading cause of emergency department visits by older adults. Low balance confidence is a major health problem among older adults restricting their participation in daily life. Objective of t...

  4. Confidence and Use of Communication Skills in Medical Students

    OpenAIRE

    Mahnaz Jalalvandi; Akhtar Jamali; Ali Taghipoor-Zahir; Mohammad-Reza Sohrabi

    2014-01-01

    Background: Well-designed interventions can improve the communication skills of physicians. Since the understanding of the current situation is essential for designing effective interventions, this study was performed to determine medical interns’ confidence and use of communication skills.Materials and Methods: This descriptive-analytical study was performed in spring 2013 within 3 branches of Islamic Azad University (Tehran, Mashhad, and Yazd), on 327 randomly selected interns. Data gatheri...

  5. Fisher.py: Fisher Matrix Manipulation and Confidence Contour Plotting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Dan

    2010-10-01

    Fisher.py allows you to combine constraints from multiple experiments (e.g., weak lensing + supernovae) and add priors (e.g., a flat universe) simply and easily. Calculate parameter uncertainties and plot confidence ellipses. Fisher matrix expectations for several experiments are included as calculated by myself (time delays) and the Dark Energy Task Force (WL/SN/BAO/CL/CMB), or provide your own.

  6. Effects of Parental Divorce on Marital Commitment and Confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Whitton, Sarah W.; Rhoades, Galena K.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.

    2008-01-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that, compared to offspring of non-divorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes towards marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that, when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their ...

  7. Autism Spectrum Disorder and High Confidence Gene Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Mai, MOCHIZUKI

    2017-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurological developmental disorder whose mechanism isyet unclear. However, recent ASD studies, which employ exome- and genome-wide sequencing,have identified some high-confidence ASD genes. Those ASD studies have revealed that CHD8is likely associated with ASD. In this article, we highlight that CHD8 may regulate othercandidate ASD risk genes. Current research indicates that there exist some thousand autismsusceptibility candidate genes. Moreover, we sugge...

  8. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  9. Sample size for estimation of the Pearson correlation coefficient in cherry tomato tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Giacomini Sari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to determine the required sample size for estimation of the Pearson coefficient of correlation between cherry tomato variables. Two uniformity tests were set up in a protected environment in the spring/summer of 2014. The observed variables in each plant were mean fruit length, mean fruit width, mean fruit weight, number of bunches, number of fruits per bunch, number of fruits, and total weight of fruits, with calculation of the Pearson correlation matrix between them. Sixty eight sample sizes were planned for one greenhouse and 48 for another, with the initial sample size of 10 plants, and the others were obtained by adding five plants. For each planned sample size, 3000 estimates of the Pearson correlation coefficient were obtained through bootstrap re-samplings with replacement. The sample size for each correlation coefficient was determined when the 95% confidence interval amplitude value was less than or equal to 0.4. Obtaining estimates of the Pearson correlation coefficient with high precision is difficult for parameters with a weak linear relation. Accordingly, a larger sample size is necessary to estimate them. Linear relations involving variables dealing with size and number of fruits per plant have less precision. To estimate the coefficient of correlation between productivity variables of cherry tomato, with a confidence interval of 95% equal to 0.4, it is necessary to sample 275 plants in a 250m² greenhouse, and 200 plants in a 200m² greenhouse.

  10. Building public confidence in the world's nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, C.D.

    1996-01-01

    Public confidence in the nuclear industry requires two things, which are trust and understanding. Trust is an emotional response based upon an instinctive reaction. Understanding, on the other hand, is an intellectual response based upon facts. To gain public confidence, both of these levels must be communicated and proactive strategies must be implemented to do this. To achieve this objective will require confidence and courage in communication programs. Each company operating in the nuclear sector must be proactive in building its individual reputation and must not retreat from controversy. Similarly, each industry body must continue the Herculean task of building understanding. The nuclear industry has powerful arguments. ICI, BP or Ford did not achieve their licences to operate by keeping their heads down, they achieved their current market positions by building a positive corporate reputation within their respective industrial contexts over many decades. In order to achieve a similar position for the nuclear industry and the companies, their examples must be followed. If it is continued to 'keep the heads down' in the trenches, public opinion will surely bury within it. (G.K.)

  11. Re-thinking accountability: trust versus confidence in medical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checkland, K; Marshall, M; Harrison, S

    2004-04-01

    In seeking to prevent a reoccurrence of scandals such as that involving cardiac surgery in Bristol, the UK government has adopted a model of regulation that uses rules and surveillance as a way of both improving the quality of care delivered and increasing confidence in healthcare institutions. However, this approach may actually act to reduce confidence and trust while also reducing the moral motivation of practitioners. Accountability in health care is discussed, and it is suggested that openness about the difficult dilemmas that arise when practitioners have a duty to be accountable to more than one audience may be an alternative means of restoring trust. A greater emphasis on the sharing of information between individual health professionals and their patients would increase trust and would allow patients to hold their doctors to account for the quality of care they receive. Concentrating more on developing trust by the sharing of information and less on the futile search for complete confidence in systems and rules may improve the quality of care delivered while also nurturing the moral motivation of professionals upon which the delivery of high quality health care depends.

  12. Teachers and Counselors: Building Math Confidence in Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph M. Furner

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Mathematics teachers need to take on the role of counselors in addressing the math anxious in today's math classrooms. This paper looks at the impact math anxiety has on the future of young adults in our high-tech society. Teachers and professional school counselors are encouraged to work together to prevent and reduce math anxiety. It is important that all students feel confident in their ability to do mathematics in an age that relies so heavily on problem solving, technology, science, and mathematics. It really is a school's obligation to see that their students value and feel confident in their ability to do math, because ultimately a child's life: all decisions they will make and careers choices may be determined based on their disposition toward mathematics. This paper raises some interesting questions and provides some strategies (See Appendix A for teachers and counselors for addressing the issue of math anxiety while discussing the importance of developing mathematically confident young people for a high-tech world of STEM.

  13. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

    2017-01-01

    Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

  14. Effect size, confidence intervals and statistical power in psychological research.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Téllez A.

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative psychological research is focused on detecting the occurrence of certain population phenomena by analyzing data from a sample, and statistics is a particularly helpful mathematical tool that is used by researchers to evaluate hypotheses and make decisions to accept or reject such hypotheses. In this paper, the various statistical tools in psychological research are reviewed. The limitations of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST and the advantages of using effect size and its respective confidence intervals are explained, as the latter two measurements can provide important information about the results of a study. These measurements also can facilitate data interpretation and easily detect trivial effects, enabling researchers to make decisions in a more clinically relevant fashion. Moreover, it is recommended to establish an appropriate sample size by calculating the optimum statistical power at the moment that the research is designed. Psychological journal editors are encouraged to follow APA recommendations strictly and ask authors of original research studies to report the effect size, its confidence intervals, statistical power and, when required, any measure of clinical significance. Additionally, we must account for the teaching of statistics at the graduate level. At that level, students do not receive sufficient information concerning the importance of using different types of effect sizes and their confidence intervals according to the different types of research designs; instead, most of the information is focused on the various tools of NHST.

  15. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  16. Confidence limits for parameters of Poisson and binomial distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, L.M.

    1976-04-01

    The confidence limits for the frequency in a Poisson process and for the proportion of successes in a binomial process were calculated and tabulated for the situations in which the observed values of the frequency or proportion and an a priori distribution of these parameters are available. Methods are used that produce limits with exactly the stated confidence levels. The confidence interval [a,b] is calculated so that Pr [a less than or equal to lambda less than or equal to b c,μ], where c is the observed value of the parameter, and μ is the a priori hypothesis of the distribution of this parameter. A Bayesian type analysis is used. The intervals calculated are narrower and appreciably different from results, known to be conservative, that are often used in problems of this type. Pearson and Hartley recognized the characteristics of their methods and contemplated that exact methods could someday be used. The calculation of the exact intervals requires involved numerical analyses readily implemented only on digital computers not available to Pearson and Hartley. A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to verify a selected interval from those calculated. This numerical experiment confirmed the results of the analytical methods and the prediction of Pearson and Hartley that their published tables give conservative results

  17. Recurrence relations between transformation coefficients of hyperspherical harmonics and their application to Moshinsky coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raynal, J.

    1976-01-01

    Closed formulae and recurrence relations for the transformation of a two-body harmonic oscillator wave function to the hyperspherical formalism are given. With them Moshinsky or Smirnov coefficients are obtained from the transformation coefficients of hyperspheric harmonics. For these coefficients the diagonalization method of Talman and Lande reduces to simple recurrence relations which can be used directly to compute them. New closed formulae for these coefficients are also derived: they are needed to compute the two simplest coefficients which determine the sign for the recurrence relation. (Auth.)

  18. Friction coefficient dependence on electrostatic tribocharging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgo, Thiago A. L.; Silva, Cristiane A.; Balestrin, Lia B. S.; Galembeck, Fernando

    2013-01-01

    Friction between dielectric surfaces produces patterns of fixed, stable electric charges that in turn contribute electrostatic components to surface interactions between the contacting solids. The literature presents a wealth of information on the electronic contributions to friction in metals and semiconductors but the effect of triboelectricity on friction coefficients of dielectrics is as yet poorly defined and understood. In this work, friction coefficients were measured on tribocharged polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), using three different techniques. As a result, friction coefficients at the macro- and nanoscales increase many-fold when PTFE surfaces are tribocharged, but this effect is eliminated by silanization of glass spheres rolling on PTFE. In conclusion, tribocharging may supersede all other contributions to macro- and nanoscale friction coefficients in PTFE and probably in other insulating polymers. PMID:23934227

  19. Revised Mark 22 coolant temperature coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graves, W.E.

    1987-01-01

    Coolant temperature coefficients for the Mark 22 charge published previously are non-conservative because of the neglect of a significant mechanism which has a positive contribution to reactivity. Even after correcting for this effect, dynamic tests made on a Mark VIB charge in the early 60's suggest the results are still non-conservative. This memorandum takes both of these sources of information into account in making a best estimate of the prompt (coolant plus metal) temperature coefficient. Although no safety issues arise from this work (the overall temperature coefficient still strongly contributes to reactor stability), it is obviously desirable to use best estimates for prompt coefficients in limits and other calculations

  20. Heat transfer coefficient of cryotop during freezing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, W J; Zhou, X L; Wang, H S; Liu, B L; Dai, J J

    2013-01-01

    Cryotop is an efficient vitrification method for cryopreservation of oocytes. It has been widely used owing to its simple operation and high freezing rate. Recently, the heat transfer performance of cryotop was studied by numerical simulation in several studies. However, the range of heat transfer coefficient in the simulation is uncertain. In this study, the heat transfer coefficient for cryotop during freezing process was analyzed. The cooling rates of 40 percent ethylene glycol (EG) droplet in cryotop during freezing were measured by ultra-fast measurement system and calculated by numerical simulation at different value of heat transfer coefficient. Compared with the results obtained by two methods, the range of the heat transfer coefficient necessary for the numerical simulation of cryotop was determined, which is between 9000 W/(m(2)·K) and 10000 W/(m (2)·K).

  1. Friction coefficient dependence on electrostatic tribocharging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgo, Thiago A L; Silva, Cristiane A; Balestrin, Lia B S; Galembeck, Fernando

    2013-01-01

    Friction between dielectric surfaces produces patterns of fixed, stable electric charges that in turn contribute electrostatic components to surface interactions between the contacting solids. The literature presents a wealth of information on the electronic contributions to friction in metals and semiconductors but the effect of triboelectricity on friction coefficients of dielectrics is as yet poorly defined and understood. In this work, friction coefficients were measured on tribocharged polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), using three different techniques. As a result, friction coefficients at the macro- and nanoscales increase many-fold when PTFE surfaces are tribocharged, but this effect is eliminated by silanization of glass spheres rolling on PTFE. In conclusion, tribocharging may supersede all other contributions to macro- and nanoscale friction coefficients in PTFE and probably in other insulating polymers.

  2. Roughness coefficients for stream channels in Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldridge, B.N.; Garrett, J.M.

    1973-01-01

    When water flows in an open channel, energy is lost through friction along the banks and bed of the channel and through turbulence within the channel. The amount of energy lost is governed by channel roughness, which is expressed in terms of a roughness coefficient. An evaluation of the roughness coefficient is necessary in many hydraulic computations that involve flow in an open channel. Owing to the lack of satisfactory quantitative procedure, the ability of evaluate roughness coefficients can be developed only through experience; however, a basic knowledge of the methods used to assign the coefficients and the factors affecting them will be a great help. One of the most commonly used equations in open-channel hydraulics is that of Manning. The Manning equation is       1.486

  3. Experimental techniques of conversion coefficient measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, J.H.

    1975-01-01

    Discusses briefly the history of conversion electron spectra measurements, and the interpretation of the collected data. Then provides a comprehensive review of techniques presently available to measure the conversion coefficients. (Auth.)

  4. Form coefficient of helical toroidal solenoids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amelin, V.Z.; Kunchenko, V.B.

    1982-01-01

    For toroidal solenoids with continuous spiral coil, winded according to the laws of equiinclined and simple cylindrical spirals with homogeneous, linearly increasing to the coil periphery and ''Bitter'' distribution of current density, the analytical expressions for the dependence between capacity consumed and generated magnetic field, expressions for coefficients of form similar to Fabry coefficient for cylindrical solenoids are obtained and dependence of the form coefficient and relative volume of solenoid conductor on the number of revolutions of screw line per one circumvention over the large torus radius is also investigated. Analytical expressions of form coefficients and graphical material permit to select the optimum geometry as to capacity consumed both for spiral (including ''force-free'') and conventional toroidal solenoids of magnetic systems in thermonulear installations

  5. Explicit formulas for Clebsch-Gordan coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudnicki-Bujnowski, G.

    1975-01-01

    The problem is to obtain explicit algebraic formulas of Clebsch-Gordan coefficients for high values of angular momentum. The method of solution is an algebraic method based on the Racah formula using the FORMAC programming language. (Auth.)

  6. Diffusion Coefficients of Several Aqueous Alkanolamine Solutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijder, Erwin D.; Riele, Marcel J.M. te; Versteeg, Geert F.; Swaaij, W.P.M. van

    1993-01-01

    The Taylor dispersion technique was applied for the determination of diffusion coefficients of various systems. Experiments with the system KCl in water showed that the experimental setup provides accurate data. For the alkanolamines monoethanolamine (MEA), diethanolamine (DEA), methyldiethanolamine

  7. Transport Coefficients from Large Deviation Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chloe Ya Gao

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe a method for computing transport coefficients from the direct evaluation of large deviation functions. This method is general, relying on only equilibrium fluctuations, and is statistically efficient, employing trajectory based importance sampling. Equilibrium fluctuations of molecular currents are characterized by their large deviation functions, which are scaled cumulant generating functions analogous to the free energies. A diffusion Monte Carlo algorithm is used to evaluate the large deviation functions, from which arbitrary transport coefficients are derivable. We find significant statistical improvement over traditional Green–Kubo based calculations. The systematic and statistical errors of this method are analyzed in the context of specific transport coefficient calculations, including the shear viscosity, interfacial friction coefficient, and thermal conductivity.

  8. Transport Coefficients from Large Deviation Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chloe; Limmer, David

    2017-10-01

    We describe a method for computing transport coefficients from the direct evaluation of large deviation function. This method is general, relying on only equilibrium fluctuations, and is statistically efficient, employing trajectory based importance sampling. Equilibrium fluctuations of molecular currents are characterized by their large deviation functions, which is a scaled cumulant generating function analogous to the free energy. A diffusion Monte Carlo algorithm is used to evaluate the large deviation functions, from which arbitrary transport coefficients are derivable. We find significant statistical improvement over traditional Green-Kubo based calculations. The systematic and statistical errors of this method are analyzed in the context of specific transport coefficient calculations, including the shear viscosity, interfacial friction coefficient, and thermal conductivity.

  9. A new approach to estimate Angstrom coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel Wahab, M.

    1991-09-01

    A simple quadratic equation to estimate global solar radiation with coefficients depending on some physical atmospheric parameters is presented. The importance of the second order and sensitivity to some climatic variations is discussed. (author). 8 refs, 4 figs, 2 tabs

  10. A new proposal for Lagrangian correlation coefficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinsoy, N.; Tugrul, A.B.

    2002-01-01

    The statistical description of dispersion in turbulent flow was first considered by Taylor (Proc. London Math. Soc. 20 (1921) 196) and the statistical properties of the field were determined by Lagrangian correlation coefficient R L (τ). Frenkiel (Adv. Appl. Mech. 3 (1953) 61) has proposed several simple forms for R L (τ). Some workers have investigated for a proper form of the Lagrangian correlation coefficient. In this work, a new proposal for the Lagrangian correlation coefficient is proposed and discussed. It can be written in general form with the one of the Frenkiel's (Adv. Appl. Mech. 3 (1953) 61) Lagrangian correlation coefficient. There is very satisfactory agreement between the new correlation and the experiment

  11. Modeling Ballasted Tracks for Runoff Coefficient C

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    In this study, the Regional Transportation District (RTD)s light rail tracks were modeled to determine the Rational Method : runoff coefficient, C, values corresponding to ballasted tracks. To accomplish this, a laboratory study utilizing a : rain...

  12. Block Empirical Likelihood for Longitudinal Single-Index Varying-Coefficient Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunquan Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a single-index varying-coefficient model with application to longitudinal data. In order to accommodate the within-group correlation, we apply the block empirical likelihood procedure to longitudinal single-index varying-coefficient model, and prove a nonparametric version of Wilks’ theorem which can be used to construct the block empirical likelihood confidence region with asymptotically correct coverage probability for the parametric component. In comparison with normal approximations, the proposed method does not require a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix, making it easier to conduct inference for the model's parametric component. Simulations demonstrate how the proposed method works.

  13. Relativistic neoclassical transport coefficients with momentum correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marushchenko, I.; Azarenkov, N.A.

    2016-01-01

    The parallel momentum correction technique is generalized for relativistic approach. It is required for proper calculation of the parallel neoclassical flows and, in particular, for the bootstrap current at fusion temperatures. It is shown that the obtained system of linear algebraic equations for parallel fluxes can be solved directly without calculation of the distribution function if the relativistic mono-energetic transport coefficients are already known. The first relativistic correction terms for Braginskii matrix coefficients are calculated.

  14. Torsion method for measuring piezooptic coefficients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skab, I.; Smaga, I.; Savaryn, V.; Vasylkiv, Yu.; Vlokh, R. [Institute of Physical Optics, Lviv (Ukraine)

    2011-01-15

    We develop and describe analytically a torsion method for measuring piezooptic coefficients associated with shear stresses. It is shown that the method enables to increase significantly the accuracy of determination of piezooptic coefficients. The method and the appropriate apparatus are verified experimentally on the example of LiNbO{sub 3} crystals. (copyright 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  15. Measuring Resource Inequality: The Gini Coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael T. Catalano

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper stems from work done by the authors at the Mathematics for Social Justice Workshop held in June of 2007 at Middlebury College. We provide a description of the Gini coefficient and some discussion of how it can be used to promote quantitative literacy skills in mathematics courses. The Gini Coefficient was introduced in 1921 by Italian statistician Corrado Gini as a measure of inequality. It is defined as twice the area between two curves. One, the Lorenz curve for a given population with respect to a given resource, represents the cumulative percentage of the resource as a function of the cumulative percentage of the population that shares that percentage of the resource. The second curve is the line y = x which is the Lorenz curve for a population which shares the resource equally. The Gini coefficient can be interpreted as the percentage of inequality represented in the population with respect to the given resource. We propose that the Gini coefficient can be used to enhance students’ understanding of calculus concepts and provide practice for students in using both calculus and quantitative literacy skills. Our examples are based mainly on distribution of energy resources using publicly available data from the Energy Information Agency of the United States Government. For energy resources within the United States, we find that by household, the Gini coefficient is 0.346, while using the 51 data points represented by the states and Washington D.C., the Gini coefficient is 0.158. When we consider the countries of the world as a population of 210, the Gini coefficient is 0.670. We close with ideas for questions which can be posed to students and discussion of the experiences two other mathematics instructors have had incorporating the Gini coefficient into pre-calculus-level mathematics classes.

  16. The Binomial Coefficient for Negative Arguments

    OpenAIRE

    Kronenburg, M. J.

    2011-01-01

    The definition of the binomial coefficient in terms of gamma functions also allows non-integer arguments. For nonnegative integer arguments the gamma functions reduce to factorials, leading to the well-known Pascal triangle. Using a symmetry formula for the gamma function, this definition is extended to negative integer arguments, making the symmetry identity for binomial coefficients valid for all integer arguments. The agreement of this definition with some other identities and with the bin...

  17. Investigation of photon attenuation coefficients for marble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basyigit, C; Akkurt, I; Kilincarslan, S; Akkurt, A

    2005-01-01

    The total linear attenuation coefficients μ (cm -1 ) have been obtained using the XCOM program at photon energies of 1 keV to 1 GeV for six different natural marbles produced in different places in Turkey. The individual contribution of photon interaction processes to the total linear attenuation coefficients for marble has been investigated. The calculated results were also compared with the measurements. The results obtained for marble were also compared with concrete. (note)

  18. Analysis of flow coefficient in chair manufacture

    OpenAIRE

    Ivković Dragoljub; Živković Slaven

    2005-01-01

    The delivery on time is not possible without the good-quality planning of deadlines, i.e. planning of the manufacturing process duration. The study of flow coefficient enables the realistic forecasting of the manufacturing process duration. This paper points to the significance of the study of flow coefficient on scientific basis so as to determine the terms of the end of the manufacture of chairs made of sawn timber. Chairs are the products of complex construction, often almost completely ma...

  19. On computing Laplace's coefficients and their derivatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerasimov, I. A.; Vinnikov, E. L.

    The algorithm of computing Laplace's coefficients and their derivatives is proposed with application of recurrent relations. The A.G.M.-method is used for the calculation of values L0(0), L0(1). The FORTRAN-program corresponding to the algorithm is given. The precision control was provided with numerical integrating by Simpsons method. The behavior of Laplace's coefficients and their third derivatives whith varying indices K, n for fixed values of the α-parameter is presented graphically.

  20. Drag Coefficient Estimation in Orbit Determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Craig A.; Manee, Steve; Lichtenberg, Travis

    2011-07-01

    Drag modeling is the greatest uncertainty in the dynamics of low Earth satellite orbits where ballistic coefficient and density errors dominate drag errors. This paper examines fitted drag coefficients found as part of a precision orbit determination process for Stella, Starlette, and the GEOSAT Follow-On satellites from 2000 to 2005. The drag coefficients for the spherical Stella and Starlette satellites are assumed to be highly correlated with density model error. The results using MSIS-86, NRLMSISE-00, and NRLMSISE-00 with dynamic calibration of the atmosphere (DCA) density corrections are compared. The DCA corrections were formulated for altitudes of 200-600 km and are found to be inappropriate when applied at 800 km. The yearly mean fitted drag coefficients are calculated for each satellite for each year studied. The yearly mean drag coefficients are higher for Starlette than Stella, where Starlette is at a higher altitude. The yearly mean fitted drag coefficients for all three satellites decrease as solar activity decreases after solar maximum.

  1. Monitoring device for local power peaking coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihashi, Ishi

    1987-01-01

    Purpose: To determine and monitor the local power peaking coefficients by a method not depending on the combination of fuel types. Constitution: Representative values for the local power distribution can be obtained by determining corresponding burn-up degrees based on the burn-up degree of each of fuel assembly segments obtained in a power distribution monitor and by the interpolation and extrapolation of void coefficients. The typical values are multiplied with compensation coefficients for the control rod effect and coefficients for compensating the effect of adjacent fuel assemblies in a calculation device to obtain typical values for the present local power distribution compensated with all of the effects. Further, the calculation device compares them with typical values of the present local power distribution to obtain an aimed local power peaking coefficient as the maximum value thereof. According to the present invention, since the local power peaking coefficients can be determined not depending on the combination of the kind of fuels, if the combination of fuel assemblies is increased upon fuel change, the amount of operation therefor is not increased. (Kamimura, M.)

  2. Monitoring device for local power peaking coefficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitsuhashi, Ishi

    1987-01-01

    Purpose: To monitor the local power peaking coefficients obtained by the method not depending on the combination of fuel types. Method: A plurality of representative values for the local power distribution determined by the nuclear constant calculation for one fuel assembly are memorized regarding each of the burn-up degree and the void coefficient on every positions and fuel types in fuel rod assemblies. While on the other hand, the representative values for the local power distribution as described above are compensated by a compensation coefficient considering the effect of adjacent segments and a control rod compensation coefficient considering the effect due to the control rod insertion relative to the just-mentioned compensation coefficient. Then, the maximum value among them is selected to determine the local power peaking coefficient at each of the times and each of the segments, which is monitored. According to this system, the calculation and the working required for the fitting work depending on the combination of fuel types are no more required at all to facilitate the maintenance as well. (Horiuchi, T.)

  3. Reducing public communication apprehension by boosting self confidence on communication competence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Rachmi

    2012-07-01

    medical doctor should be competent in communicating with others. Some students at the medical faculty Universitas Mulawarman tend to be silent at public communication training, and this is thought to be influenced by communication anxiety. This study aimed to analyze the possibility of self-confidence on communication competence and communication skills are risk factors of communication apprehension. Methods: This study was conducted on 55 students at the medical faculty Universitas Mulawarman.  Public communication apprehension was measured using the Personal Report of Communication Apprehension (PRCA-24. Confidence in communication competence was determined by the Self Perceived Communication Competence scale (SPCC.  Communication skills were based on the instructor’s score during the communication training program. Data were analyzed by linear regression to identify dominant factors using STATA 9.0. Results: The study showed a negative association between public communication apprehension and students’ self confidence in communication competence [coefficient regression (CR =-0.13; p=0.000; 95% confidence interval (CI=-0.20; -0.52]. However, it was not related to communication skills (p=0.936. Among twelve traits of self confidence on communication competence, students who had confidence to talk to a group of strangers had lower public communication apprehension (adjusted CR=-0.13; CI=-0.21; 0.05; p=0.002. Conclusions:  Increased confidence in their communication competence will reduce the degree of public communication apprehension by students. Therefore, the faculty should provide more opportunities for students to practice public communication, in particular, talking to a group of strangers more frequently. (Health Science Indones 2010; 1: 37 - 42

  4. Goal orientation as a motivation model and self-confidence among tennis players of different levels of success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lepir Duško

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this research was to determine differences between the successful and less successful tennis players regarding their goal orientation and self-confidence, as well as to examine the correlation between these two psychological constructs. Active male tennis players (N=40, ranked on the senior list of the Tennis Federation of Austria, age 18 to 26, filled in the TEOSQ-D1 questionnaire (Würth, Alfermann and Saborowski, 1999, and CSI questionnaire (Vealey, 1986, just before the national senior championship of Austria. After categorising a 'successful tennis player' as one ranked in top 100 (N=20, and a 'less successful' one as ranked outside top 100 (N=20, analyses of their differences concerning goal orientation and self-confidence were conducted by means of the T-test, but no statistically significant differences were found for any scale. Pearson's coefficient for the entire sample showed that task orientation correlate significantly with the sport confidence trait (r= 0,451; Sig.= 0,05, and to a certain extent with sport-confidence as a state (r= 0,387; Sig.= 0,092, but that correlation is not statistically significant at the level Sig.< 0,05. For the result/ego scale orientation, there were no significant correlations with sporting-confidence. Guidelines for future research are based on the development of a more adequate system for evaluation of success in sport, and also on increasing of sample size. This could be very helpful for making more reliable conclusions about the influence of goal orientation preference on sport-confidence and sport success, which could justify the utilization of this psychological construct for practical purposes.

  5. Impact of erectile dysfunction on confidence, self-esteem and relationship satisfaction after 9 months of sildenafil citrate treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althof, Stanley E; O'Leary, Michael P; Cappelleri, Joseph C; Crowley, Arthur R; Tseng, Li-Jung; Collins, Suzanne

    2006-11-01

    The first double-blind, placebo controlled trial in the United States of the Self-Esteem And Relationship questionnaire revealed that treatment with sildenafil citrate improves erectile function and measures of quality of life in men with erectile dysfunction. We investigated long-term improvement, and correlations between improved erectile function and confidence, self-esteem and sexual relationship satisfaction in men with erectile dysfunction. This was a 36-week open label extension of the double-blind, placebo controlled trial. The blind was not broken. Patients were 18 years or older with clinically diagnosed erectile dysfunction. Erectile function was assessed using the International Index of Erectile Function. Self-esteem, confidence and relationship satisfaction were assessed using the Self-Esteem And Relationship questionnaire. Correlations were determined using Pearson's product moment coefficients. A total of 204 participants were enrolled in the open label extension, including 108 on placebo and 96 on sildenafil. In men who received placebo in the double-blind, placebo controlled phase mean erectile function scores and self-esteem, confidence and relationship satisfaction scores were increased significantly at week 36 of the open label extension (p self-esteem, confidence and relationship satisfaction were strong and positive (p self-esteem, confidence and relationship satisfaction. Following an initial 12 weeks of double-blind, placebo controlled sildenafil therapy for erectile dysfunction improvements were sustained an additional 9 months. Positive correlations between erectile function, and self-esteem, confidence and relationship satisfaction suggest that improved erectile quality can improve long-term psychosocial quality of life.

  6. Discharge Coefficient of Rectangular Short-Crested Weir with Varying Slope Coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuejun Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Rectangular short-crested weirs are widely used for simple structure and high discharge capacity. As one of the most important and influential factors of discharge capacity, side slope can improve the hydraulic characteristics of weirs at special conditions. In order to systemically study the effects of upstream and downstream slope coefficients S1 and S2 on overflow discharge coefficient in a rectangular short-crested weir the Volume of Fluid (VOF method and the Renormalization Group (RNG κ-ε turbulence model are used. In this study, the slope coefficient ranges from V to 3H:1V and each model corresponds to five total energy heads of H0 ranging from 8.0 to 24.0 cm. Comparisons of discharge coefficients and free surface profiles between simulated and laboratory results display a good agreement. The simulated results show that the difference of discharge coefficients will decrease with upstream slopes and increase with downstream slopes as H0 increases. For a given H0, the discharge coefficient has a convex parabolic relation with S1 and a piecewise linearity relation with S2. The maximum discharge coefficient is always obtained at S2 = 0.8. There exists a difference between upstream and downstream slope coefficients in the influence range of free surface curvatures. Furthermore, a proposed discharge coefficient equation by nonlinear regression is a function of upstream and downstream slope coefficients.

  7. Exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, David

    2013-10-12

    A method to produce exact simultaneous confidence bands for the empirical cumulative distribution function that was first described by Owen, and subsequently corrected by Jager and Wellner, is the starting point for deriving exact nonparametric confidence bands for the survivor function of any positive random variable. We invert a nonparametric likelihood test of uniformity, constructed from the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survivor function, to obtain simultaneous lower and upper bands for the function of interest with specified global confidence level. The method involves calculating a null distribution and associated critical value for each observed sample configuration. However, Noe recursions and the Van Wijngaarden-Decker-Brent root-finding algorithm provide the necessary tools for efficient computation of these exact bounds. Various aspects of the effect of right censoring on these exact bands are investigated, using as illustrations two observational studies of survival experience among non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients and a much larger group of subjects with advanced lung cancer enrolled in trials within the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the merits of the proposed method of deriving simultaneous interval estimates of the survivor function across the entire range of the observed sample. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. It was begun while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, and completed during a subsequent sojourn at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. The support of both institutions, in addition to that of NSERC and the University of Waterloo, is greatly appreciated.

  8. Disarmament and confidence-building in North-East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Il Nam

    1992-01-01

    Disarmament and confidence building are essential issues to be addressed urgently as they are directly linked with national security. The successful solutions of this issue will ensure world peace and security. These statements have special significance if applied to the situation in North-East Asia and particularly Korean Peninsula. Even under the circumstances of the continued existence of the United States Nuclear Threat, the Government of North Korea has concluded a safeguards agreement and has been inspected by IAEA, thus indicating constant effort to denuclearize the Korean peninsula

  9. On a linear method in bootstrap confidence intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Pallini

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available A linear method for the construction of asymptotic bootstrap confidence intervals is proposed. We approximate asymptotically pivotal and non-pivotal quantities, which are smooth functions of means of n independent and identically distributed random variables, by using a sum of n independent smooth functions of the same analytical form. Errors are of order Op(n-3/2 and Op(n-2, respectively. The linear method allows a straightforward approximation of bootstrap cumulants, by considering the set of n independent smooth functions as an original random sample to be resampled with replacement.

  10. Station blackout and public confidence: a cautionary tale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cave, L.

    1990-01-01

    The recent ''station blackout'' (ie loss of on-site and off-site AC power) incidents at the Vogtle PWR in the US and Hinkley Point B AGR in the Uk have led to further public concern about the safety of nuclear power, even though in each case the actual increase in the chance of an accident leading to a release of radioactivity to the environment was negligible. The industry may be wise to invest precautionary measures to reduce the frequency of such incidents and to increase public confidence. (author)

  11. Establishing Quantitative Within-Subject Confidence Limits For Clinical Stereoroentgenographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korn, Edward L.; Baumrind, Sheldon; Chafetz, Neil; Curry, Sean; Moffitt, Francis

    1983-07-01

    It is now quite clear that under ideal conditions, discrete points can be located on x-ray films with standard deviations of less than 50 i. However, under routine clinical conditions, such considerations as individual variation in anatomy, movement of the subject between exposures, and variations in image quality combine to produce considerable reductions in the confidence which can be placed in quantitative assessments made from stereoroentgenographic films. This paper discusses some considerations involved in designing mathematical models in such a way as to optimize the use of imperfect data in answering specific clinical questions.

  12. The public information challenge: confidence and credibility through communications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spence, H.J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Canada's Atomic Energy Control Board, considered the oldest independent nuclear regulatory body in the world, has made significant progress toward openness and visibility through public information policy initiatives and communications activities, particularly in the last five years. A number of public information projects are described, and successes as well as disappointments are outlined. The importance in terms of enhanced credibility and public confidence in the regulatory agency is stressed. In looking toward the future, the linking of communications to the operational functions and activities of the regulator is presented as a key requirement. (author)

  13. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-01-01

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...

  14. Lattice cell diffusion coefficients. Definitions and comparisons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, R.P.

    1980-01-01

    Definitions of equivalent diffusion coefficients for regular lattices of heterogeneous cells have been given by several authors. The paper begins by reviewing these different definitions and the unification of their derivation. This unification makes clear how accurately each definition (together with appropriate cross-section definitions to preserve the eigenvalue) represents the individual reaction rates within the cell. The approach can be extended to include asymmetric cells and whereas before, the buckling describing the macroscopic flux shape was real, here it is found to be complex. A neutron ''drift'' coefficient as well as a diffusion coefficient is necessary to produce the macroscopic flux shape. The numerical calculation of the various different diffusion coefficients requires the solutions of equations similar to the ordinary transport equation for an infinite lattice. Traditional reactor physics codes are not sufficiently flexible to solve these equations in general. However, calculations in certain simple cases are presented and the theoretical results quantified. In difficult geometries, Monte Carlo techniques can be used to calculate an effective diffusion coefficient. These methods relate to those already described provided that correlation effects between different generations of neutrons are included. Again, these effects are quantified in certain simple cases. (author)

  15. Experimental methodology for obtaining sound absorption coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Macía M

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: the authors propose a new methodology for estimating sound absorption coefficients using genetic algorithms. Methodology: sound waves are generated and conducted along a rectangular silencer. The waves are then attenuated by the absorbing material covering the silencer’s walls. The attenuated sound pressure level is used in a genetic algorithm-based search to find the parameters of the proposed attenuation expressions that include geometric factors, the wavelength and the absorption coefficient. Results: a variety of adjusted mathematical models were found that make it possible to estimate the absorption coefficients based on the characteristics of a rectangular silencer used for measuring the attenuation of the noise that passes through it. Conclusions: this methodology makes it possible to obtain the absorption coefficients of new materials in a cheap and simple manner. Although these coefficients might be slightly different from those obtained through other methodologies, they provide solutions within the engineering accuracy ranges that are used for designing noise control systems.

  16. Radon emanation coefficients in sandy soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holy, K.; Polaskova, A.; Baranova, A.; Sykora, I.; Hola, O.

    1998-01-01

    In this contribution the results of the study of an influence of the water content on the emanation coefficient for two sandy soil samples are reported. These samples were chosen on the because of the long-term continual monitoring of the 222 Rn concentration just in such types of soils and this radon concentration showed the significant variations during a year. These variations are chiefly given in connection with the soil moisture. Therefore, the determination of the dependence of the emanation coefficient of radon on the water content can help to evaluate the influence of the soil moisture variations of radon concentrations in the soil air. The presented results show that the emanation coefficient reaches the constant value in the wide interval of the water content for both sandy soil samples. Therefore, in the common range of the soil moisture (5 - 20 %) it is impossible to expect the variations of the radon concentration in the soil air due to the change of the emanation coefficient. The expressive changes of the radon concentration in the soil air can be observed in case of the significant decrease of the emanation coefficient during the soil drying when the water content decreases under 5 % or during the complete filling of the soil pores by the water. (authors)

  17. Temporal correlation coefficient for directed networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büttner, Kathrin; Salau, Jennifer; Krieter, Joachim

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies dealing with network theory focused mainly on the static aggregation of edges over specific time window lengths. Thus, most of the dynamic information gets lost. To assess the quality of such a static aggregation the temporal correlation coefficient can be calculated. It measures the overall possibility for an edge to persist between two consecutive snapshots. Up to now, this measure is only defined for undirected networks. Therefore, we introduce the adaption of the temporal correlation coefficient to directed networks. This new methodology enables the distinction between ingoing and outgoing edges. Besides a small example network presenting the single calculation steps, we also calculated the proposed measurements for a real pig trade network to emphasize the importance of considering the edge direction. The farm types at the beginning of the pork supply chain showed clearly higher values for the outgoing temporal correlation coefficient compared to the farm types at the end of the pork supply chain. These farm types showed higher values for the ingoing temporal correlation coefficient. The temporal correlation coefficient is a valuable tool to understand the structural dynamics of these systems, as it assesses the consistency of the edge configuration. The adaption of this measure for directed networks may help to preserve meaningful additional information about the investigated network that might get lost if the edge directions are ignored.

  18. Fragility estimation for seismically isolated nuclear structures by high confidence low probability of failure values and bi-linear regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carausu, A.

    1996-01-01

    A method for the fragility estimation of seismically isolated nuclear power plant structure is proposed. The relationship between the ground motion intensity parameter (e.g. peak ground velocity or peak ground acceleration) and the response of isolated structures is expressed in terms of a bi-linear regression line, whose coefficients are estimated by the least-square method in terms of available data on seismic input and structural response. The notion of high confidence low probability of failure (HCLPF) value is also used for deriving compound fragility curves for coupled subsystems. (orig.)

  19. Psychometric Properties of Persian Translated Version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC in Arak Community-dwelling Older Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daryoush Khajavi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Balance deficiency, falls and fear of fall are important problems that can resulted in reversed health outcomes including decreased quality of life. The purpose of this study was surveying factor structure, validation, and reliability determination of Persian translated version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale in community-dwelling older adults of Arak city. Materials and Methods: Research method was descriptive in form of psychometry. The statistic population was older adults of Arak in year 2012 and 308 subjects with mean age 69.38 years were selected availably. Data were collected by Persian translated version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence that is a 16-item scale and evaluates balance confidence in activities of daily living. Data were analyzed by Exploratory Factor Analysis. Test-retest and internal reliability were calculated by Pearson correlation coefficient and Chronbach’s Alpha. Data were analyzed with SPSS-16. Results: The findings resulted in extraction of one factor with eigenvalue over one that explained 82.89% of total variance. Test-retest reliability between 1 to 4 weeks and internal reliability (Chronbach’s alpha were 0.82 and 0.98, respectively. Gutmann split-half correlation coefficient and intra-class correlation coefficient were calculated 95% and 85%, respectively. Conclusion: Persian translated version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC-F is a valid and reliable tool for Iranian community-dwelling older adults that can be used in clinical and research purpose.

  20. Empowerment as Interactions that Generate Self-Confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poder, Poul

    2010-01-01

    to address this gap in understanding by theorizing how confidence and other positive emotions contribute to personal agency, which is an essential aspect of the empowerment process.                       It is generally understood that confidence – meaning faith in oneself as opposed to conceit or arrogance...... by particular social interactions that promote recognition and access to relevant resources for action. Drawing on emotion-focused sociological theory about agency and emotional energy, and Fredrickson’s ‘build and broaden’ theory of positive emotions, I argue that the focus on consciousness and intentionality...... as the defining features of human agency has led us to downplay the fact that agency is primarily an emotional phenomenon. As such, it is also dynamic and situational, since it is highly dependent on interactions that engender emotional energy and positive emotions that fuel and widen agency. As an example...

  1. Protein Correlation Profiles Identify Lipid Droplet Proteins with High Confidence*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahmer, Natalie; Hilger, Maximiliane; Kory, Nora; Wilfling, Florian; Stoehr, Gabriele; Mann, Matthias; Farese, Robert V.; Walther, Tobias C.

    2013-01-01

    Lipid droplets (LDs) are important organelles in energy metabolism and lipid storage. Their cores are composed of neutral lipids that form a hydrophobic phase and are surrounded by a phospholipid monolayer that harbors specific proteins. Most well-established LD proteins perform important functions, particularly in cellular lipid metabolism. Morphological studies show LDs in close proximity to and interacting with membrane-bound cellular organelles, including the endoplasmic reticulum, mitochondria, peroxisomes, and endosomes. Because of these close associations, it is difficult to purify LDs to homogeneity. Consequently, the confident identification of bona fide LD proteins via proteomics has been challenging. Here, we report a methodology for LD protein identification based on mass spectrometry and protein correlation profiles. Using LD purification and quantitative, high-resolution mass spectrometry, we identified LD proteins by correlating their purification profiles to those of known LD proteins. Application of the protein correlation profile strategy to LDs isolated from Drosophila S2 cells led to the identification of 111 LD proteins in a cellular LD fraction in which 1481 proteins were detected. LD localization was confirmed in a subset of identified proteins via microscopy of the expressed proteins, thereby validating the approach. Among the identified LD proteins were both well-characterized LD proteins and proteins not previously known to be localized to LDs. Our method provides a high-confidence LD proteome of Drosophila cells and a novel approach that can be applied to identify LD proteins of other cell types and tissues. PMID:23319140

  2. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  3. Nuclear energy communications in France: gaining public confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaussade, J.-P.

    1990-01-01

    Nuclear power plants today are an accepted part of the French landscape; a total of 54 units have been constructed on some 20 different sites. They have been relatively well accepted by the general public and, in particular, by those people living in the vicinity of plants. This favourable situation, however, did not come about automatically - it required a great deal of effort in terms of public information, starting during the 1970s. This effort must be maintained, especially since public confidence in nuclear energy was severely shaken by the Chernobyl accident. Our success in pursuing France's planned construction programme depends on our ability to build on this confidence. Indeed, since 1987, we have had to rethink our communications strategy. However, Electricite de France (EDF) is not alone in this; public authorities, the SCSIN (an Industry Department equivalent to the NRC), CEA (French atomic energy commission), in its capacity as a research organisation, together with plant constructor Framatome and nuclear fuel company Cogema, all have a role to play in this communications drive. The key to our communications campaign lies in listening to public opinion. Opinion polls and qualitative surveys allow us to judge public awareness and pinpoint expectations and concerns. This article summarises the main surveys we have carried out. (3 figures) (Author)

  4. Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

    2014-03-01

    The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

  5. Confidence Intervals for Asbestos Fiber Counts: Approximate Negative Binomial Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartley, David; Slaven, James; Harper, Martin

    2017-03-01

    The negative binomial distribution is adopted for analyzing asbestos fiber counts so as to account for both the sampling errors in capturing only a finite number of fibers and the inevitable human variation in identifying and counting sampled fibers. A simple approximation to this distribution is developed for the derivation of quantiles and approximate confidence limits. The success of the approximation depends critically on the use of Stirling's expansion to sufficient order, on exact normalization of the approximating distribution, on reasonable perturbation of quantities from the normal distribution, and on accurately approximating sums by inverse-trapezoidal integration. Accuracy of the approximation developed is checked through simulation and also by comparison to traditional approximate confidence intervals in the specific case that the negative binomial distribution approaches the Poisson distribution. The resulting statistics are shown to relate directly to early research into the accuracy of asbestos sampling and analysis. Uncertainty in estimating mean asbestos fiber concentrations given only a single count is derived. Decision limits (limits of detection) and detection limits are considered for controlling false-positive and false-negative detection assertions and are compared to traditional limits computed assuming normal distributions. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2017.

  6. Robust, Efficient Depth Reconstruction With Hierarchical Confidence-Based Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Li; Chen, Ke; Song, Mingli; Tao, Dacheng; Chen, Gang; Chen, Chun

    2017-07-01

    In recent years, taking photos and capturing videos with mobile devices have become increasingly popular. Emerging applications based on the depth reconstruction technique have been developed, such as Google lens blur. However, depth reconstruction is difficult due to occlusions, non-diffuse surfaces, repetitive patterns, and textureless surfaces, and it has become more difficult due to the unstable image quality and uncontrolled scene condition in the mobile setting. In this paper, we present a novel hierarchical framework with multi-view confidence-based matching for robust, efficient depth reconstruction in uncontrolled scenes. Particularly, the proposed framework combines local cost aggregation with global cost optimization in a complementary manner that increases efficiency and accuracy. A depth map is efficiently obtained in a coarse-to-fine manner by using an image pyramid. Moreover, confidence maps are computed to robustly fuse multi-view matching cues, and to constrain the stereo matching on a finer scale. The proposed framework has been evaluated with challenging indoor and outdoor scenes, and has achieved robust and efficient depth reconstruction.

  7. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  8. Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionut Bebu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT, and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates.

  9. Curling for Confidence: Psychophysical Benefits of Curling for Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Rachael C; Rakhamilova, Zina; Gage, William H; Baker, Joseph

    2018-04-01

    While physical activity is increasingly promoted for older adults, there is a paucity of sport promotion, which has distinct benefits from exercise and remains stereotypically associated with younger age. Curling is a moderately intense and safe sport that continues to gain popularity; however, no research has investigated psychophysical benefits of curling for older adults. The present study compares high-experience (20+ years; n = 63) and low-experience (<20 years; n = 53) curlers (aged 60+ years) with older adult noncurlers (n = 44) on measures of daily functionality, balance confidence, and perceptions of the aging process. While no significant differences were found between high- and low-experience curlers, any level of experience reported significantly better functionality, physical confidence, and aging attitudes compared to noncurlers (p ≤ .05). Although further research is necessary, the results suggest that any level of curling experience can enhance older adult psychophysical well-being, and warrants consideration for physical activity promotion and falls prevention programs.

  10. Computation of Clebsch-Gordan and Gaunt coefficients using binomial coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guseinov, I.I.; Oezmen, A.; Atav, Ue

    1995-01-01

    Using binomial coefficients the Clebsch-Gordan and Gaunt coefficients were calculated for extremely large quantum numbers. The main advantage of this approach is directly calculating these coefficients, instead of using recursion relations. Accuracy of the results is quite high for quantum numbers l 1 , and l 2 up to 100. Despite direct calculation, the CPU times are found comparable with those given in the related literature. 11 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  11. Curvature of Indoor Sensor Network: Clustering Coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the geometric properties of the communication graph in realistic low-power wireless networks. In particular, we explore the concept of the curvature of a wireless network via the clustering coefficient. Clustering coefficient analysis is a computationally simplified, semilocal approach, which nevertheless captures such a large-scale feature as congestion in the underlying network. The clustering coefficient concept is applied to three cases of indoor sensor networks, under varying thresholds on the link packet reception rate (PRR. A transition from positive curvature (“meshed” network to negative curvature (“core concentric” network is observed by increasing the threshold. Even though this paper deals with network curvature per se, we nevertheless expand on the underlying congestion motivation, propose several new concepts (network inertia and centroid, and finally we argue that greedy routing on a virtual positively curved network achieves load balancing on the physical network.

  12. Estimating Runoff Coefficients Using Weather Radars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahm, Malte; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a method for estimating runoff coefficients of urban drainage catchments based on a combination of high resolution weather radar data and insewer flow measurements. By utilising the spatial variability of the precipitation it is possible to estimate the runoff coefficients...... of separate subcatchments. The method is demonstrated through a case study of an urban drainage catchment (678ha) located in the municipality of Aarhus, Denmark. The study has proven it is possible to use corresponding measurements of the relative rainfall distribution over the catchment and runoff...... measurements to identify the runoff coefficients at subcatchment level. The number of potential subcatchments is limited by the number of available rainfall events with a sufficient spatial variability....

  13. Experimental determination of fission gas adsorption coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovell, R.; Underhill, D.W.

    1979-01-01

    Large charcoal beds have been used for a number of years for the holdup and decay of radioactive isotopes of krypton and xenon. Reliable design of these beds depends on an accurate knowledge of the adsorption coefficient of krypton and xenon on the adsorbents used in these beds. It is somewhat surprising that there is no standard procedure of determining the adsorption coefficient for krypton and xenon. Fundamental information needed to establish a standardized reproducible test procedure is given emphasizing the breakthrough curves commonly used to analyze dynamic adsorption data can lead to serious systematic errors and the fact that the adsorption coefficient, if calculated from the arithmetic holding time, is independent of geometric factors such as the shape of the adsorption bed and the irregular shape of the adsorbent

  14. Ideal related K-theory with coefficients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eilers, Soren; Restorff, Gunnar; Ruiz, Efren

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we define an invariant, which we believe should be the substitute for total K-theory in the case when there is one distinguished ideal. Moreover, some diagrams relating the new groups to the ordinary K-groups with coefficients are constructed. These diagrams will in most cases help...... to determine the new groups, and will in a companion paper be used to prove a universal multi-coefficient theorem for the one distinguished ideal case for a large class of algebras......In this paper, we define an invariant, which we believe should be the substitute for total K-theory in the case when there is one distinguished ideal. Moreover, some diagrams relating the new groups to the ordinary K-groups with coefficients are constructed. These diagrams will in most cases help...

  15. Nozzle geometry variations on the discharge coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.M.A. Alam

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Numerical works have been conducted to investigate the effect of nozzle geometries on the discharge coefficient. Several contoured converging nozzles with finite radius of curvatures, conically converging nozzles and conical divergent orifices have been employed in this investigation. Each nozzle and orifice has a nominal exit diameter of 12.7×10−3 m. A 3rd order MUSCL finite volume method of ANSYS Fluent 13.0 was used to solve the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations in simulating turbulent flows through various nozzle inlet geometries. The numerical model was validated through comparison between the numerical results and experimental data. The results obtained show that the nozzle geometry has pronounced effect on the sonic lines and discharge coefficients. The coefficient of discharge was found differ from unity due to the non-uniformity of flow parameters at the nozzle exit and the presence of boundary layer as well.

  16. Estimating temperature reactivity coefficients by experimental procedures combined with isothermal temperature coefficient measurements and dynamic identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuji, Masashi; Aoki, Yukinori; Shimazu, Yoichiro; Yamasaki, Masatoshi; Hanayama, Yasushi

    2006-01-01

    A method to evaluate the moderator coefficient (MTC) and the Doppler coefficient through experimental procedures performed during reactor physics tests of PWR power plants is proposed. This method combines isothermal temperature coefficient (ITC) measurement experiments and reactor power transient experiments at low power conditions for dynamic identification. In the dynamic identification, either one of temperature coefficients can be determined in such a way that frequency response characteristics of the reactivity change observed by a digital reactivity meter is reproduced from measured data of neutron count rate and the average coolant temperature. The other unknown coefficient can also be determined by subtracting the coefficient obtained from the dynamic identification from ITC. As the proposed method can directly estimate the Doppler coefficient, the applicability of the conventional core design codes to predict the Doppler coefficient can be verified for new types of fuels such as mixed oxide fuels. The digital simulation study was carried out to show the feasibility of the proposed method. The numerical analysis showed that the MTC and the Doppler coefficient can be estimated accurately and even if there are uncertainties in the parameters of the reactor kinetics model, the accuracies of the estimated values are not seriously impaired. (author)

  17. Criterions for fixing regulatory seismic acceleration coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costes, D.

    1988-03-01

    Acceleration coeffficients to be taken into account in seismic areas for calculation of structures are defined in national seismic regulations. Joined to the described qualitative requirements, these coefficients represent a balance between precaution costs and avoided damages, both in terms of material repairing costs and damage to human life. Persons in charge of fixing these coefficients must be informed of corresponding quantitative aspects. Data on seismic motions occurrencies and consequences are gathered here and convoluted to mean damage evaluations. Indications on precaution costs are joined, which shows that currently recommended levels of seismic motions are high relatively to financial profitability, and represent in fact an aethical choice about human life value [fr

  18. Diffusion and transport coefficients in synthetic opals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sofo, J. O.; Mahan, G. D.

    2000-01-01

    Opals are structures composed of close-packed spheres in the size range of nano to micrometers. They are sintered to create small necks at the points of contact. We have solved the diffusion problem in such structures. The relation between the diffusion coefficient and the thermal and electrical conductivity is used to estimate the transport coefficients of opal structures as a function of the neck size and the mean free path of the carriers. The theory presented is also applicable to the diffusion problem in other periodic structures. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society

  19. A Simple Measure of Price Adjustment Coefficients.

    OpenAIRE

    Damodaran, Aswath

    1993-01-01

    One measure of market efficiency is the speed with which prices adjust to new information. The author develops a simple approach to estimating these price adjustment coefficients by using the information in return processes. This approach is used to estimate t he price adjustment coefficients for firms listed on the NYSE and the A MEX as well as for over-the-counter stocks. The author finds evidence of a lagged adjustment to new information in shorter return intervals for firms in all market ...

  20. Absorption coefficient instrument for turbid natural waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, E.; Cherdak, A.; Poole, L.; Houghton, W.

    1980-01-01

    The paper presents an instrument that directly measures multispectral absorption coefficient of turbid natural water. Attention is given to the design, which is shown to incorporate methods for the compensation of variation in the internal light source intensity, correction of the spectrally dependent nature of the optical elements, and correction for variation in the background light level. In addition, when used in conjunction with a spectrally matched total attenuation instrument, the spectrally dependent scattering coefficient can also be derived. Finally, it is reported that systematic errors associated with multiple scattering have been estimated using Monte Carlo techniques.

  1. Transfer of risk coefficients across populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, L.R.

    1992-01-01

    The variation of lifetime risk projections for a Canadian population caused by the uncertainty in the choice of method for transferring excess relative risk coefficients between populations is assessed. Site-specific projections, varied by factors up to 3.5 when excess risk coefficients of the BEIR V relative risk models were transferred to the Canadian population using an additive and multiplicative method. When the risk from all cancers are combined, differences between transfer methods were no longer significant. The Canadian projections were consistent with the ICRP-60 nominal fatal cancer risk estimates. (author)

  2. Reaction rate calculations via transmission coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feit, M.D.; Alder, B.J.

    1985-01-01

    The transmission coefficient of a wavepacket traversing a potential barrier can be determined by steady state calculations carried out in imaginary time instead of by real time dynamical calculations. The general argument is verified for the Eckart barrier potential by a comparison of transmission coefficients calculated from real and imaginary time solutions of the Schroedinger equation. The correspondence demonstrated here allows a formulation for the reaction rate that avoids difficulties due to both rare events and explicitly time dependent calculations. 5 refs., 2 figs

  3. Dependence of sputtering coefficient on ion dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colligon, J.S.; Patel, M.H.

    1977-01-01

    The sputtering coefficient of polycrystalline gold bombarded by 10-40 keV Ar + ions had been measured as a function of total ion dose and shown to exhibit oscillations in magnitude between 30 and 100%. Possible experimental errors which would give rise to such an oscillation have been considered, but it is apparent that these factors are unable to explain the measurements. It is proposed that a change in the Sublimation Energy associated with either bulk damage or formation of surface topographical features arising during ion bombardment may be responsible for the observed variations in sputtering coefficient. (author)

  4. ANL results for LMFR reactivity coefficients benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, Robert

    2000-01-01

    The fast reactor analysis methods developed at ANL were extensively tested in ZPR and ZPPR experiments, applied to EBR-2 and FFTF test reactors. The basic nuclear data library used was ENDF/B-V.2 with the ETOE-2 data processing code and the ENDF/B-VI. Multigroup constants were generated by Monte Carlo code MCNP 2 -2. Neutron flux calculation were done by DIF3D code applying neutron diffusion theory and finite difference method. The results obtained include basic parameters; fuel and structure regional Doppler coefficients; geometry expansion fuel coefficients; kinetics parameters. In general, agreement between phase 1 and 2 results were excellent

  5. Assessing Reliability of a Multi-Dimensional Scale by Coefficient Alpha

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Šerbetar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to assess internal consistency by calculating coefficient alpha. It presents the variation in coefficient alpha, depending on questionnaire length and the homogeneity or heterogeneity of the questionnaire. The maximum possible value for coefficient alpha was also calculated by the item elimination method. The study included 99 children aged 10. The children completed The Athletic Coping Skills Inventory – 28 (ACSI-28; Smith et al., 1995, which contains seven constructs: coping with adversity, coachability, concentration, confidence and achievement motivation, goal setting and mental preparation, peaking under pressure and freedom from worry. The results confirmed that the values of the alpha coefficient vary depending on the number and composition of items and the sample size. In terms of item structure, homogeneous constructs yielded lower values for the alpha coefficient (in a range from .48 to .61 than the questionnaire with all the constructs (alpha = .79, despite higher inter-item correlations. In terms of the number of items, the longer test generated higher alpha coefficients (alpha = .79 than the shorter test (half-sets of items = .60, .73, .69, .70. A higher overall value (alpha = .83 can be achieved by item elimination.

  6. An experimental determination of the drag coefficient of a Mens 8+ racing shell.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckmann, James G; Harris, Samuel D

    2014-01-01

    This study centered around an experimental analysis of a Mens Lightweight Eight racing shell and, specifically, determining an approximation for the drag coefficient. A testing procedure was employed that used a Global Positioning System (GPS) unit in order to determine the acceleration and drag force on the shell, and through calculations yield a drag coefficient. The testing was run over several days in numerous conditions, and a 95% confidence interval was established to capture the results. The results obtained, over these varying trials, maintained a successful level of consistency. The significance of this study transcends the determination an approximation for the drag coefficient of the racing shell; it defined a successful means of quantifying performance of the shell itself. The testing procedures outlined in the study represent a uniform means of evaluating the factors that influence drag on the shell, and thus influence speed.

  7. eMolTox: prediction of molecular toxicity with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Changge; Svensson, Fredrik; Zoufir, Azedine; Bender, Andreas

    2018-03-07

    In this work we present eMolTox, a web server for the prediction of potential toxicity associated with a given molecule. 174 toxicology-related in vitro/vivo experimental datasets were used for model construction and Mondrian conformal prediction was used to estimate the confidence of the resulting predictions. Toxic substructure analysis is also implemented in eMolTox. eMolTox predicts and displays a wealth of information of potential molecular toxicities for safety analysis in drug development. The eMolTox Server is freely available for use on the web at http://xundrug.cn/moltox. chicago.ji@gmail.com or ab454@cam.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  8. Editorial: disarmament, non proliferation, confidence-building measures, armament control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soutou, Georges-Henri

    2015-01-01

    After having described the vicious circle existing between disarmament and security as it appeared before and during the first World War, the author deals with the specific case of nuclear disarmament as it was first addressed just after the Second World War, and was then not accepted by the Russians. He comments the political and strategical approach adopted by the Kennedy administration, notably within the context of severe crises (Berlin and Cuba). This resulted in the re-establishment of a relationship between war and policy as defined by Clausewitz, but based on a trilogy of three inseparable pairs: deterrence and armament control, armament control and non proliferation, armament control and confidence-building measures. The author shows that this trilogy has been somehow operating until the end of Cold War, and that nothing works anymore since the end of Cold War and of the bipolar world

  9. Motivation, Leadership, Empowerment and Confidence: Their Relation with Nurses’ Burnout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V.; Fradelos, Evangelos C.; Kleisiaris, Christos F.; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A.; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Discussion: Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Conclusion: Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels. PMID:25685089

  10. Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morand, J.; Deperas-Standylo, J.; Urbanik, W.; Moss, R.; Hachem, S.; Sauerwein, W.; Wojcik, A.

    2008-01-01

    The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta. (authors)

  11. Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  12. Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morand, Josselin; Deperas-Standylo, Joanna; Urbanik, Witold; Moss, Raymond; Hachem, Sabet; Sauerwein, Wolfgang; Wojcik, Andrzej

    2008-01-01

    The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta.

  13. Normalization and psychometric properties of career skills confidence inventory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Jafari

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates normalization and psychometric properties of career skills confidence inventory. For this purpose, we use Betz’s questionnaire [Betz, N. E., Harmon, L., & Borgen, F. (1996. The relationships of self- efficacy for the Holland themes to gender, occupational group membership, and vocational interests. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 43, 90-98.], which consists of 60 questions in three groups of self-awareness, exploration and planning. The study distributes the questionnaire among 600 randomly selected students and analyzes the feedback using Pearson correlation ratios. The results indicate that there are some positive and meaningful correlations between three component and career counseling. There are also positive and meaningful relationships among three components of self-awareness, exploration and planning.

  14. The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence celebrates a decade of work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, C.; Mays, C.; Diaconu, D.

    2010-01-01

    Since its foundation in 2000, the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) has fostered constructive dialogues and interactions with hundreds of interested parties in radioactive waste management, ranging from specialists and academic researchers, national and local politicians to local stakeholders and associations. Many of those partners came to Paris in September 2010 to participate in the colloquium 'Looking Back, Looking Forward in Stakeholder Engagement'. This Ten- year Anniversary Colloquium as well as the FSC's eleventh regular meeting on the following two days were open to all interested parties. This article describes the Forum and the online reports in which learning is shared. It highlights the two major topics discussed at the Colloquium and reviews the joint evaluation made there of FSC achievements. Finally, it points to the directions selected for a new decade of work

  15. Stakeholder confidence: observations from the viewpoint of ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, P.A.

    2003-01-01

    Discussions among the participants of this Forum on Stakeholder Confidence Workshop as well as the Canadian Context and field trip to the Municipality of Port Hope and Clarington often turned to foundational social concerns in radioactive waste facility siting. Intertwined in these topics were less obvious but persistent ethical concerns. Below I articulate some of these ethical issues. I do this by describing four observations I made throughout the week. I suggest that these observations be examined from the viewpoint of ethics and reflect on their complexity. I initiate this paper with a preliminary discussion of the expression 'ethical assessment' referred to throughout the workshop. This expression is key to Canada's new Nuclear Waste Fuel Act (NWFA) requiring proof that this type of assessment occurs in the consideration of potential concepts and hosts for the disposal of nuclear waste. (author)

  16. CONSEL: for assessing the confidence of phylogenetic tree selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimodaira, H; Hasegawa, M

    2001-12-01

    CONSEL is a program to assess the confidence of the tree selection by giving the p-values for the trees. The main thrust of the program is to calculate the p-value of the Approximately Unbiased (AU) test using the multi-scale bootstrap technique. This p-value is less biased than the other conventional p-values such as the Bootstrap Probability (BP), the Kishino-Hasegawa (KH) test, the Shimodaira-Hasegawa (SH) test, and the Weighted Shimodaira-Hasegawa (WSH) test. CONSEL calculates all these p-values from the output of the phylogeny program packages such as Molphy, PAML, and PAUP*. Furthermore, CONSEL is applicable to a wide class of problems where the BPs are available. The programs are written in C language. The source code for Unix and the executable binary for DOS are found at http://www.ism.ac.jp/~shimo/ shimo@ism.ac.jp

  17. Comparison of Bootstrap Confidence Intervals Using Monte Carlo Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto S. Flowers-Cano

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Design of hydraulic works requires the estimation of design hydrological events by statistical inference from a probability distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compared coverage of confidence intervals constructed with four bootstrap techniques: percentile bootstrap (BP, bias-corrected bootstrap (BC, accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap (BCA and a modified version of the standard bootstrap (MSB. Different simulation scenarios were analyzed. In some cases, the mother distribution function was fit to the random samples that were generated. In other cases, a distribution function different to the mother distribution was fit to the samples. When the fitted distribution had three parameters, and was the same as the mother distribution, the intervals constructed with the four techniques had acceptable coverage. However, the bootstrap techniques failed in several of the cases in which the fitted distribution had two parameters.

  18. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-01-01

    MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for Calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov Theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the individual estimator with the smallest variance. The importance of MCNP's batch statistics is demonstrated by an investigation of the effects of individual estimator variance bias on the combination of estimators, both heuristically with the analytical study and emprically with MCNP

  19. GENERALISED MODEL BASED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN TWO STAGE CLUSTER SAMPLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Ouma Onyango

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Chambers and Dorfman (2002 constructed bootstrap confidence intervals in model based estimation for finite population totals assuming that auxiliary values are available throughout a target population and that the auxiliary values are independent. They also assumed that the cluster sizes are known throughout the target population. We now extend to two stage sampling in which the cluster sizes are known only for the sampled clusters, and we therefore predict the unobserved part of the population total. Jan and Elinor (2008 have done similar work, but unlike them, we use a general model, in which the auxiliary values are not necessarily independent. We demonstrate that the asymptotic properties of our proposed estimator and its coverage rates are better than those constructed under the model assisted local polynomial regression model.

  20. Metacognition and Confidence: Comparing Math to Other Academic Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanna eErickson

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  1. Estimation and interpretation of keff confidence intervals in MCNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbatsch, T.J.

    1995-01-01

    The Monte Carlo code MCNP has three different, but correlated, estimators for calculating k eff in nuclear criticality calculations: collision, absorption, and track length estimators. The combination of these three estimators, the three-combined k eff estimator, is shown to be the best k eff estimator available in MCNP for estimating k eff confidence intervals. Theoretically, the Gauss-Markov theorem provides a solid foundation for MCNP's three-combined estimator. Analytically, a statistical study, where the estimates are drawn using a known covariance matrix, shows that the three-combined estimator is superior to the estimator with the smallest variance. Empirically, MCNP examples for several physical systems demonstrate the three-combined estimator's superiority over each of the three individual estimators and its correct coverage rates. Additionally, the importance of MCNP's statistical checks is demonstrated

  2. Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence: their relation with nurses' burnout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V; Fradelos, Evangelos C; Kleisiaris, Christos F; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-12-01

    Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels.

  3. Secure and Usable Bio-Passwords based on Confidence Interval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aeyoung Kim

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The most popular user-authentication method is the password. Many authentication systems try to enhance their security by enforcing a strong password policy, and by using the password as the first factor, something you know, with the second factor being something you have. However, a strong password policy and a multi-factor authentication system can make it harder for a user to remember the password and login in. In this paper a bio-password-based scheme is proposed as a unique authentication method, which uses biometrics and confidence interval sets to enhance the security of the log-in process and make it easier as well. The method offers a user-friendly solution for creating and registering strong passwords without the user having to memorize them. Here we also show the results of our experiments which demonstrate the efficiency of this method and how it can be used to protect against a variety of malicious attacks.

  4. The confidence in diabetes self-care scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Der Ven, Nicole C W; Weinger, Katie; Yi, Joyce

    2003-01-01

    evaluated in Dutch (n = 151) and U.S. (n = 190) outpatients with type 1 diabetes. In addition to the CIDS scale, assessment included HbA(1c), emotional distress, fear of hypoglycemia, self-esteem, anxiety, depression, and self-care behavior. The Dutch sample completed additional measures on perceived burden......OBJECTIVE: To examine psychometric properties of the Confidence in Diabetes Self-Care (CIDS) scale, a newly developed instrument assessing diabetes-specific self-efficacy in Dutch and U.S. patients with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Reliability and validity of the CIDS scale were...... and importance of self-care. Test-retest reliability was established in a second Dutch sample (n = 62). RESULTS: Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86 for Dutch patients and 0.90 U.S. patients) and test-retest reliability (Spearman's r = 0.85, P

  5. How Confident can we be in Flood Risk Assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, B.

    2017-12-01

    Flood risk management should be based on risk analyses quantifying the risk and its reduction for different risk reduction strategies. However, validating risk estimates by comparing model simulations with past observations is hardly possible, since the assessment typically encompasses extreme events and their impacts that have not been observed before. Hence, risk analyses are strongly based on assumptions and expert judgement. This situation opens the door for cognitive biases, such as `illusion of certainty', `overconfidence' or `recency bias'. Such biases operate specifically in complex situations with many factors involved, when uncertainty is high and events are probabilistic, or when close learning feedback loops are missing - aspects that all apply to risk analyses. This contribution discusses how confident we can be in flood risk assessments, and reflects about more rigorous approaches towards their validation.

  6. IMPROVING SEMI-GLOBAL MATCHING: COST AGGREGATION AND CONFIDENCE MEASURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. d’Angelo

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Digital elevation models are one of the basic products that can be generated from remotely sensed imagery. The Semi Global Matching (SGM algorithm is a robust and practical algorithm for dense image matching. The connection between SGM and Belief Propagation was recently developed, and based on that improvements such as correction of over-counting the data term, and a new confidence measure have been proposed. Later the MGM algorithm has been proposed, it aims at improving the regularization step of SGM, but has only been evaluated on the Middlebury stereo benchmark so far. This paper evaluates these proposed improvements on the ISPRS satellite stereo benchmark, using a Pleiades Triplet and a Cartosat-1 Stereo pair. The over-counting correction slightly improves matching density, at the expense of adding a few outliers. The MGM cost aggregation shows leads to a slight increase of accuracy.

  7. Confidence interval procedures for Monte Carlo transport simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pederson, S.P.

    1997-01-01

    The problem of obtaining valid confidence intervals based on estimates from sampled distributions using Monte Carlo particle transport simulation codes such as MCNP is examined. Such intervals can cover the true parameter of interest at a lower than nominal rate if the sampled distribution is extremely right-skewed by large tallies. Modifications to the standard theory of confidence intervals are discussed and compared with some existing heuristics, including batched means normality tests. Two new types of diagnostics are introduced to assess whether the conditions of central limit theorem-type results are satisfied: the relative variance of the variance determines whether the sample size is sufficiently large, and estimators of the slope of the right tail of the distribution are used to indicate the number of moments that exist. A simulation study is conducted to quantify the relationship between various diagnostics and coverage rates and to find sample-based quantities useful in indicating when intervals are expected to be valid. Simulated tally distributions are chosen to emulate behavior seen in difficult particle transport problems. Measures of variation in the sample variance s 2 are found to be much more effective than existing methods in predicting when coverage will be near nominal rates. Batched means tests are found to be overly conservative in this regard. A simple but pathological MCNP problem is presented as an example of false convergence using existing heuristics. The new methods readily detect the false convergence and show that the results of the problem, which are a factor of 4 too small, should not be used. Recommendations are made for applying these techniques in practice, using the statistical output currently produced by MCNP

  8. A Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp improves trainee confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Catherine K; Tannous, Paul; DeWitt, Elizabeth; Farias, Michael; Mansfield, Laura; Ronai, Christina; Schidlow, David; Sanders, Stephen P; Lock, James E; Newburger, Jane W; Brown, David W

    2016-12-01

    Introduction New paediatric cardiology trainees are required to rapidly assimilate knowledge and gain clinical skills to which they have limited or no exposure during residency. The Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp (PCBC) at Boston Children's Hospital was designed to provide incoming fellows with an intensive exposure to congenital cardiac pathology and a broad overview of major areas of paediatric cardiology practice. The PCBC curriculum was designed by core faculty in cardiac pathology, echocardiography, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology, exercise physiology, and cardiac intensive care. Individual faculty contributed learning objectives, which were refined by fellowship directors and used to build a programme of didactics, hands-on/simulation-based activities, and self-guided learning opportunities. A total of 16 incoming fellows participated in the 4-week boot camp, with no concurrent clinical responsibilities, over 2 years. On the basis of pre- and post-PCBC surveys, 80% of trainees strongly agreed that they felt more prepared for clinical responsibilities, and a similar percentage felt that PCBC should be offered to future incoming fellows. Fellows showed significant increase in their confidence in all specific knowledge and skills related to the learning objectives. Fellows rated hands-on learning experiences and simulation-based exercises most highly. We describe a novel 4-week-long boot camp designed to expose incoming paediatric cardiology fellows to the broad spectrum of knowledge and skills required for the practice of paediatric cardiology. The experience increased trainee confidence and sense of preparedness to begin fellowship-related responsibilities. Given that highly interactive activities were rated most highly, boot camps in paediatric cardiology should strongly emphasise these elements.

  9. Friction Coefficient Determination by Electrical Resistance Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunyagi, A.; Kandrai, K.; Fülöp, Z.; Kapusi, Z.; Simon, A.

    2018-01-01

    A simple and low-cost, DIY-type, Arduino-driven experiment is presented for the study of friction and measurement of the friction coefficient, using a conductive rubber cord as a force sensor. It is proposed for high-school or college/university-level students. We strongly believe that it is worthwhile planning, designing and performing Arduino…

  10. Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua

    2013-01-01

    The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…

  11. Tracking time-varying coefficient-functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Joensen, Alfred K.

    2000-01-01

    is a combination of recursive least squares with exponential forgetting and local polynomial regression. It is argued, that it is appropriate to let the forgetting factor vary with the value of the external signal which is the argument of the coefficient functions. Some of the key properties of the modified method...... are studied by simulation...

  12. On finding algebraic expressions for genealogical coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanyauskas, J.M.; Shimonis, V.Ch.; Rudzikas, Z.B.

    1979-01-01

    It has been attempted to obtain analytical expressions for genealogical coefficients with one detached electron in the case of L-S coupling. A method of second quantization and tensorial properties of the quasi-spin operator are applied. It is restricted to the states for the classification of which the seigniority quantum number v is sufficient. Three ways of the acquirement of these expressions are discussed: 1. In the recurrent way wave functions of N and N-1 electrons are built, consequently expressing these functions in terms of the creation-annihilation operators. 2. Recurrent summation with the use of evident, simple genealogical coefficients. 3. Using the ratios, connecting the genealogical coefficients with the normalized multiplier. The data are presented in formulae and discussions. The generalization of the Redmond's formula is obtained and relatively simple algebraic expressions of the genealogical coefficients of the equivalent electron configurations, for the distinction of the recurrent terms of which introduction of the seigniority quantum number v is sufficient, are given

  13. Power coefficient anomaly in Joyo, (2)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishikawa, Makoto; Yamashita, Yoshioki; Sasaki, Makoto; Nara, Yoshihiko.

    1981-12-01

    In this report, the presumption about the mechanism having caused the power coefficient anomaly in Joyo during the 75 MW power-raising test in 1979 is described. After the previous report, the new information about the results of the post-irradiation examination and the analysis of the power coefficient of Joyo were able to be obtained. From these information, the mechanism of causing the anomaly was presumed as follows. In 50 MW operation, the fuel burnup reached about 10,000 MWD/ton at the end of second cycle, and produced fission gas was almost retained in fuel pellets. When the power was raised from 50 MW to 75 MW for the first time, the fission gas began to be released when 50 MW was somewhat exceeded. The fission gas release caused the temperature rise and cracking of fuel pellets, and elongated fuel stack length abruptly. These phenomena induced to enlarge the fuel expansion reactivity effect and Doppler reactivity effect, and caused the anomalous behavior of power coefficient. After reaching 75 MW, the fuel stack length did not respond normally to reactor power change, and the magnitude of power coefficient became smaller. The reactivity was lost considerably from the core after the anomaly. (Kako, I.)

  14. Problems on Divisibility of Binomial Coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osler, Thomas J.; Smoak, James

    2004-01-01

    Twelve unusual problems involving divisibility of the binomial coefficients are represented in this article. The problems are listed in "The Problems" section. All twelve problems have short solutions which are listed in "The Solutions" section. These problems could be assigned to students in any course in which the binomial theorem and Pascal's…

  15. Effective stress coefficient for uniaxial strain condition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alam, M.M.; Fabricius, I.L.

    2012-01-01

    one dimensional rock mechanical deformation. We further investigated the effect of boundary condition on the stress dependency of effective stress coefficient and discussed its application in reservoir study. As stress field in the reservoirs are most unlikely to be hydrostatic, effective stress...... determined under uniaxial strain condition will be more relevant in reservoir studies. Copyright 2012 ARMA, American Rock Mechanics Association....

  16. Molecular Diffusion Coefficients: Experimental Determination and Demonstration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fate, Gwendolyn; Lynn, David G.

    1990-01-01

    Presented are laboratory methods which allow the demonstration and determination of the diffusion coefficients of compounds ranging in size from water to small proteins. Included are the procedures involving the use of a spectrometer, UV cell, triterated agar, and oxygen diffusion. Results including quantification are described. (CW)

  17. Absorption coefficients of silicon: A theoretical treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Chin-Yi

    2018-05-01

    A theoretical model with explicit formulas for calculating the optical absorption and gain coefficients of silicon is presented. It incorporates direct and indirect interband transitions and considers the effects of occupied/unoccupied carrier states. The indirect interband transition is calculated from the second-order time-independent perturbation theory of quantum mechanics by incorporating all eight possible routes of absorption or emission of photons and phonons. Absorption coefficients of silicon are calculated from these formulas. The agreements and discrepancies among the calculated results, the Rajkanan-Singh-Shewchun (RSS) formula, and Green's data are investigated and discussed. For example, the RSS formula tends to overestimate the contributions of indirect transitions for cases with high photon energy. The results show that the state occupied/unoccupied effect is almost negligible for silicon absorption coefficients up to the onset of the optical gain condition where the energy separation of Quasi-Femi levels between electrons and holes is larger than the band-gap energy. The usefulness of using the physics-based formulas, rather than semi-empirical fitting ones, for absorption coefficients in theoretical studies of photovoltaic devices is also discussed.

  18. Control in the coefficients with variational crimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Evgrafov, Anton; Marhadi, Kun Saptohartyadi

    2012-01-01

    We study convergence of discontinuous Galerkin-type discretizations of the problems of control in the coefficients of uniformly elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs). As a model problem we use that of the optimal design of thin (Kirchhoff) plates, where the governing equations...

  19. Activity risk coefficients for living generations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raicevic, J.; Merkle, M.; Ninkovic, M. M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper deals with the new concept of the Activity risk coefficients, ARCs, which are in Probabilistic risk assessment PRA computer codes used for the calculation of the stochastic effects due to low dose exposures. As an example, ARC expressions for the Cloudshine is derived. (author)

  20. Rate coefficient for the reaction N + NO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, J. L.

    1994-01-01

    Evidence has been advanced that the rate coefficient for the reaction N + NO right arrow N2 + O has a small positive temperature dependence at the high temperatures (900 to 1500 K) that prevail in the terrestrial middle and upper thermosphere by Siskind and Rusch (1992), and at the low temperatures (100 to 200 K) of the Martian lower thermosphere by Fox (1993). Assuming that the rate coefficient recommended by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory evaluation (DeMore et al., 1992) is accurate at 300 K, we derive here the low temperature value of the activation energy for this reaction and thus the rate coefficient that best fits the Viking 1 measured NO densities. We find that the fit is acceptable for a rate coefficient of about 1.3 x 10(exp -10)(T/300)(exp 0.5)exp(-400/T) and better for a value of about 2.5 x 10(exp -10)(T/300)(exp 0.5)exp(-600/T)cu cm/s.

  1. The Evolution of Pearson's Correlation Coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kader, Gary D.; Franklin, Christine A.

    2008-01-01

    This article describes an activity for developing the notion of association between two quantitative variables. By exploring a collection of scatter plots, the authors propose a nonstandard "intuitive" measure of association; and by examining properties of this measure, they develop the more standard measure, Pearson's Correlation Coefficient. The…

  2. Probability based calibration of pressure coefficients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Svend Ole; Pedersen, Marie Louise; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Normally, a consistent basis for calculating partial factors focuses on a homogeneous reliability index neither depending on which material the structure is constructed of nor the ratio between the permanent and variable actions acting on the structure. Furthermore, the reliability index should n...... the characteristic shape coefficients are based on mean values as specified in background documents to the Eurocodes. Importance of hidden safeties judging the reliability is discussed for wind actions on low-rise structures....... not depend on the type of variable action. A probability based calibration of pressure coefficients have been carried out using pressure measurements on the standard CAARC building modelled on scale of 1:383. The extreme pressures measured on the CAARC building model in the wind tunnel have been fitted.......3, the Eurocode partial factor of 1.5 for variable actions agrees well with the inherent uncertainties of wind actions when the pressure coefficients are determined using wind tunnel test results. The increased bias and uncertainty when pressure coefficients mainly are based on structural codes lead to a larger...

  3. Modelling of power-reactivity coefficient measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strmensky, C.; Petenyi, V.; Jagrik, J.; Minarcin, M.; Hascik, R.; Toth, L.

    2005-01-01

    Report describes results of modeling of power-reactivity coefficient analysis on power-level. In paper we calculate values of discrepancies arisen during transient process. These discrepancies can be arisen as result of experiment evaluation and can be caused by disregard of 3D effects on neutron distribution. The results are critically discussed (Authors)

  4. Regularity of the Interband Light Absorption Coefficient

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper we consider the interband light absorption coefficient (ILAC), in a symmetric form, in the case of random operators on the -dimensional lattice. We show that the symmetrized version of ILAC is either continuous or has a component which has the same modulus of continuity as the density of states.

  5. Government policy, research and stakeholder confidence - Current Trends in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, Carmel

    2006-01-01

    The author addressed the topic of government Policy, research and stakeholder Confidence from the perspective of government policy makers in Canada. The presentation reviewed the question: why carry out more research into methods of long-term management of nuclear fuel waste? In addressing this question, the author provided some perspectives that were expressed by the Canadian public, since reflected in the Final Study of management approaches led by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), an organization set up by the nuclear industry to study options for the long-term management of nuclear fuel waste. The Final Study was submitted to the federal Minister of Natural Resources in November 2005 as required under the Nuclear Fuel Waste Act. The NWMO's Final Study emphasized the important role of continuous learning, a key element in the NWMO's recommendation of Adaptive Phased Management. It was reported that the NWMO work had identified many reasons to carry out further research. Regardless of the management approach adopted, activities to manage radioactive waste will continue for a very long time. Any management program could be expected to apply the best practice available at the time. A program that will evolve over a long period of time will have many opportunities for improvements to increase performance, enhance effectiveness, and address rising societal concerns. It was suggested that, to realize these benefits, there needs to be a vibrant and robust research and development effort during management program development and execution, a period that will last many generations, and enable implementers to adapt to a changing environment. Among the reasons put forward for continuing research were, to: - Embody the principles of continuous learning which encourages standards of excellence and integrity; - Prepare for facility siting, design, licensing, development and operations to improve designs, minimize costs, enhance schedules, and reduce

  6. Reproducibility of The Random Incidence Absorption Coefficient Converted From the Sabine Absorption Coefficient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeong, Cheol-Ho; Chang, Ji-ho

    2015-01-01

    largely depending on the test room. Several conversion methods for porous absorbers from the Sabine absorption coefficient to the random incidence absorption coefficient were suggested by considering the finite size of a test specimen and non-uniformly incident energy onto the specimen, which turned out...... resistivity optimization outperforms the surface impedance optimization in terms of the reproducibility....

  7. Extending the Constant Coefficient Solution Technique to Variable Coefficient Ordinary Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Ahmed; Zeleke, Aklilu

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a class of second-order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with variable coefficients whose closed-form solutions can be obtained by the same method used to solve ODEs with constant coefficients. General solutions for the homogeneous case are discussed.

  8. Drag coefficient Variability and Thermospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moe, Kenneth

    Satellite drag coefficients depend upon a variety of factors: The shape of the satellite, its altitude, the eccentricity of its orbit, the temperature and mean molecular mass of the ambient atmosphere, and the time in the sunspot cycle. At altitudes where the mean free path of the atmospheric molecules is large compared to the dimensions of the satellite, the drag coefficients can be determined from the theory of free-molecule flow. The dependence on altitude is caused by the concentration of atomic oxygen which plays an important role by its ability to adsorb on the satellite surface and thereby affect the energy loss of molecules striking the surface. The eccentricity of the orbit determines the satellite velocity at perigee, and therefore the energy of the incident molecules relative to the energy of adsorption of atomic oxygen atoms on the surface. The temperature of the ambient atmosphere determines the extent to which the random thermal motion of the molecules influences the momentum transfer to the satellite. The time in the sunspot cycle affects the ambient temperature as well as the concentration of atomic oxygen at a particular altitude. Tables and graphs will be used to illustrate the variability of drag coefficients. Before there were any measurements of gas-surface interactions in orbit, Izakov and Cook independently made an excellent estimate that the drag coefficient of satellites of compact shape would be 2.2. That numerical value, independent of altitude, was used by Jacchia to construct his model from the early measurements of satellite drag. Consequently, there is an altitude dependent bias in the model. From the sparce orbital experiments that have been done, we know that the molecules which strike satellite surfaces rebound in a diffuse angular distribution with an energy loss given by the energy accommodation coefficient. As more evidence accumulates on the energy loss, more realistic drag coefficients are being calculated. These improved drag

  9. Coronal oblique imaging of the knee: Can it increase radiologists' confidence in diagnosing posterior root meniscal tears?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casagranda, B.U.; Leeman, J.; Costello, J.M.; Rafiee, B.; Harner, C.D.

    2013-01-01

    Aim: To investigate the utility of the coronal oblique sequence in the interrogation of posterior root meniscal lesions. Materials and methods: Following international review board approval, 62 consecutive knee arthroscopy cases were referred to the musculoskeletal (MSK) radiologists from the same orthopaedic surgeon for imaging/surgical correlation of the posterior meniscal roots. Of 62 cases, 45 lateral and 46 medial menisci met the inclusion criteria. Imaging evaluation was performed with standard magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences, including a coronal oblique proton density sequence. Two blinded fellowship-trained MSK radiologists independently evaluated the menisci on standard sequences indicating whether a tear was identified and then specifying a confidence score using a scale of 1–3 on each study interpreted. Immediately thereafter, the coronal oblique sequence was evaluated using the same method. Statistics were performed on meniscal lesions involving the posterior horn/root junction or isolated root tears comparing confidence scores. Results: Reader A identified nine posterior horn/root junction tears and 14 isolated root tears. Following the addition of the coronal oblique sequence, confidence scores increased in three of 14 (21.4%) isolated root tears. All three final reads were concordant with arthroscopy. Reader B identified 10 posterior horn/root junction tears and 19 isolated root tears. The confidence score increased in six cases: five of 19 (26.3%) isolated root tears and one of 10 (10%) posterior horn/root junction tears. All six final reads were concordant with arthroscopy. Kappa coefficients indicated near perfect agreement. Conclusion: The coronal oblique sequence increased reader confidence in nearly 24% of the posterior root cases identified in this series

  10. Correlation Between Minimum Apparent Diffusion Coefficient (ADCmin) and Tumor Cellularity: A Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surov, Alexey; Meyer, Hans Jonas; Wienke, Andreas

    2017-07-01

    Diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) is a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technique based on measure of water diffusion that can provide information about tissue microstructure, especially about cell count. Increase of cell density induces restriction of water diffusion and decreases apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC). ADC can be divided into three sub-parameters: ADC minimum or ADC min , mean ADC or ADC mean and ADC maximum or ADC max Some studies have suggested that ADC min shows stronger correlations with cell count in comparison to other ADC fractions and may be used as a parameter for estimation of tumor cellularity. The aim of the present meta-analysis was to summarize correlation coefficients between ADC min and cellularity in different tumors based on large patient data. For this analysis, MEDLINE database was screened for associations between ADC and cell count in different tumors up to September 2016. For this work, only data regarding ADC min were included. Overall, 12 publications with 317 patients were identified. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to analyze associations between ADC min and cellularity. The reported Pearson correlation coefficients in some publications were converted into Spearman correlation coefficients. The pooled correlation coefficient for all included studies was ρ=-0.59 (95% confidence interval (CI)=-0.72 to -0.45), heterogeneity Tau 2 =0.04 (pcorrelated moderately with tumor cellularity. The calculated correlation coefficient is not stronger in comparison to the reported coefficient for ADC mean and, therefore, ADC min does not represent a better means to reflect cellularity. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

  11. Forum of stakeholder confidence - Phase II of program of work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Bars, Yves

    2006-01-01

    The author welcomed the Forum for Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) participants and introduced the day's meetings that would investigate the possible contributions and conditions for RD and D to support stakeholder confidence. In his introductory remarks, Mr. Le Bars reviewed the intent of this topical discussion and its contribution to the Phase 2 Programme of Work for FSC. Observations were drawn from previous FSC work concerning the evolving requirements for stakeholder involvement that require a new culture within the organizations. It is recognized that each actor must respect certain values and abilities, and have the capacity to communicate, to learn from the public and to adapt. In particular, it was suggested that the role of the expert in the decision-making process has changed, and there is a need to restore credibility to the voice of experts to support the processes relating to radioactive waste management. Mr. Le Bars spoke about the changing role of the 'expert' and increasing demands from the public to be informed, active participants in decision-making processes. As societal expectations have evolved over the years, there is less willingness to give the expert the legitimacy to decide, or the expert working solely with the decision-maker. Rather, there are growing demands for public policies to be defined and implemented through decision-making processes that also invite stakeholder participation, as another important category of actors. Thus, the decision-making process can be viewed as now involving three parties: the public, the experts and decision-makers. Research must be positioned in this context. Research must be part of the process, structure, behaviour and debate. It is meant to be introduced in the process as contributor to the project definition, by providing scientific background. Further, it is best undertaken through an adaptive behaviour, carried out by institutions with a clearly defined and communicated role. In setting

  12. Nondestructive hall coefficient measurements using ACPD techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velicheti, Dheeraj; Nagy, Peter B.; Hassan, Waled

    2018-04-01

    Hall coefficient measurements offer great opportunities as well as major challenges for nondestructive materials characterization. The Hall effect is produced by the magnetic Lorentz force acting on moving charge carriers in the presence of an applied magnetic field. The magnetic perturbation gives rise to a Hall current that is normal to the conduction current but does not directly perturb the electric potential distribution. Therefore, Hall coefficient measurements usually exploit the so-called transverse galvanomagnetic potential drop effect that arises when the Hall current is intercepted by the boundaries of the specimen and thereby produce a measurable potential drop. In contrast, no Hall potential is produced in a large plate in the presence of a uniform normal field at quasi-static low frequencies. In other words, conventional Hall coefficient measurements are inherently destructive since they require cutting the material under tests. This study investigated the feasibility of using alternating current potential drop (ACPD) techniques for nondestructive Hall coefficient measurements in plates. Specifically, the directional four-point square-electrode configuration is investigated with superimposed external magnetic field. Two methods are suggested to make Hall coefficient measurements in large plates without destructive machining. At low frequencies, constraining the bias magnetic field can replace constraining the dimensions of the specimen, which is inherently destructive. For example, when a cylindrical permanent magnet is used to provide the bias magnetic field, the peak Hall voltage is produced when the diameter of the magnet is equal to the diagonal of the square ACPD probe. Although this method is less effective than cutting the specimen to a finite size, the loss of sensitivity is less than one order of magnitude even at very low frequencies. In contrast, at sufficiently high inspection frequencies the magnetic field of the Hall current induces a

  13. Self-confidence, overconfidence and prenatal testosterone exposure : Evidence from the lab

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalton, Patricio S.; Ghosal, Sayantan

    2018-01-01

    This paper examines whether foetal testosterone exposure predicts the extent of confidence and over-confidence in own absolute ability in adulthood. To study this question, we elicited incentive-compatible measures of confidence and over-confidence in the lab and correlate them with measures of

  14. 10. national workshop of the NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Kamishan; )

    2017-01-01

    The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) was established by the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) in the year 2000. It fosters learning about stakeholder dialogue and ways to develop shared confidence, informed consent and acceptance of radioactive waste (RW) management solutions. A 'stakeholder' is defined as anyone with a role to play or an interest in the process of deciding about RW management. The FSC provides a setting for direct stakeholder exchange in an atmosphere of mutual respect and learning. Participating in this forum are government policy and regulatory officials, R and D specialists, implementers, and industry representatives from NEA member countries. Together they analyse, document and provide recommendations on today's and tomorrow's processes for embedding waste management programs into a socio-political decision-making context. The FSC convenes annually for a regular meeting and is often complemented by an FSC national workshop. The regular meetings include lectures and topical case study sessions to share experiences. FSC national workshops are organised in volunteer NEA member countries to bring together all the national stakeholders to provide a neutral ground for discussion, dialogue and advancement of knowledge on long-term radioactive waste management. FSC members and other international actors involved in RW management are invited to learn about the host country's waste management program and provide support by giving an external reflection built up on their own experience. They are often supplemented by a half a day devoted to a community visit (potential or selected site for a repository) or open event (public meeting or debate). 2016 marked the 10. national workshop of the FSC which took place in Switzerland. It focused on 'Bridging Gaps - Developing Sustainable Inter-generational Decision-making in Radioactive Waste Management'. The workshop provided a forum for the participants from around the world to learn from

  15. A parameterization scheme for the x-ray linear attenuation coefficient and energy absorption coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midgley, S M

    2004-01-21

    A novel parameterization of x-ray interaction cross-sections is developed, and employed to describe the x-ray linear attenuation coefficient and mass energy absorption coefficient for both elements and mixtures. The new parameterization scheme addresses the Z-dependence of elemental cross-sections (per electron) using a simple function of atomic number, Z. This obviates the need for a complicated mathematical formalism. Energy dependent coefficients describe the Z-direction curvature of the cross-sections. The composition dependent quantities are the electron density and statistical moments describing the elemental distribution. We show that it is possible to describe elemental cross-sections for the entire periodic table and at energies above the K-edge (from 6 keV to 125 MeV), with an accuracy of better than 2% using a parameterization containing not more than five coefficients. For the biologically important elements 1 coefficients. At higher energies, the parameterization uses fewer coefficients with only two coefficients needed at megavoltage energies.

  16. Weyl q-coefficients for uq(3) and Racah q -coefficients for suq(2)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asherova, R.M.; Smirnov, Yu.F.; Tolstoy, V.N.

    1996-01-01

    With the aid of the projection-operator technique, the general analytic expression for the elements of the matrix that relates the U and T bases of an arbitrary finite-dimensional irreducible representation of the uq(3) quantum algebra (Weyl q-coefficients) is obtained for the case where the deformation parameter q is not equal to a square root of unity. The procedure for resummation of q-factorial expressions is used to prove that, modulo phase factors, these Weyl q-coefficients coincide with Racah q-coefficients for the suq(2) quantum algebra. It is also shown that, on the basis of one general formula, the q-analogs of all known general analytic expressions for the 6j symbols (and Racah coefficients) of the Lie algebras of the angular momentum can be obtained by using this resummation procedure. The symmetry properties of these q coefficients are discussed. The result is formulated in the following way: the general formulas for the q-6j symbols (Racah q-coefficients) of the suq(2) quantum algebra are obtained from the general formulas for the conventional 6j symbols (Racah coefficients) of the su(2) Lie algebra by replacing directly all factorials with q-factorials, the symmetry properties of the q-6j symbols being completely coincident with the symmetry properties of the conventional 6j symbols

  17. Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebreton, Maël; Langdon, Shari; Slieker, Matthijs J; Nooitgedacht, Jip S; Goudriaan, Anna E; Denys, Damiaan; van Holst, Ruth J; Luigjes, Judy

    2018-05-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts.

  18. Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebreton, Maël; Slieker, Matthijs J.; Nooitgedacht, Jip S.; van Holst, Ruth J.; Luigjes, Judy

    2018-01-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a feeling of confidence, that is, a belief about the decision being correct. Confidence accuracy is critical, notably in high-stakes situations such as medical or financial decision-making. We investigated how incentive motivation influences confidence accuracy by combining a perceptual task with a confidence incentivization mechanism. By varying the magnitude and valence (gains or losses) of monetary incentives, we orthogonalized their motivational and affective components. Corroborating theories of rational decision-making and motivation, our results first reveal that the motivational value of incentives improves aspects of confidence accuracy. However, in line with a value-confidence interaction hypothesis, we further show that the affective value of incentives concurrently biases confidence reports, thus degrading confidence accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate that the motivational and affective effects of incentives differentially affect how confidence builds on perceptual evidence. Together, these findings may provide new hints about confidence miscalibration in healthy or pathological contexts. PMID:29854944

  19. Meromorphic univalent function with negative coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dernek

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Let Mn be the classes of regular functions f(z=z−1+a0+a1z+… defined in the annulus 00, (n∈ℕ0, where I0f(z=f(z, If(z=(z−1−z(z−1−2∗f(z, Inf(z=I(In−1f(z, and ∗ is the Hadamard convolution. We denote by Γn=Mn⋃Γ, where Γ denotes the class of functions of the form f(z=z−1+∑k=1∞|ak|zk. We obtained that relates the modulus of the coefficients to starlikeness for the classes Mn and Γn, and coefficient inequalities for the classes Γn.

  20. Heat transfer coefficients during quenching of steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasan, H.S.; Jalil, J.M. [University of Technology, Department of Electromechanical Engineering, Baghdad (Iraq); Peet, M.J.; Bhadeshia, H.K.D.H. [University of Cambridge, Department of Materials Science and Metallurgy, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2011-03-15

    Heat transfer coefficients for quenching in water have been measured as a function of temperature using steel probes for a variety of iron alloys. The coefficients were derived from measured cooling curves combined with calculated heat-capacities. The resulting data were then used to calculate cooling curves using the finite volume method for a large steel sample and these curves have been demonstrated to be consistent with measured values for the large sample. Furthermore, by combining the estimated cooling curves with time-temperature-transformation (TTT) diagrams it has been possible to predict the variation of hardness as a function of distance via the quench factor analysis. The work should prove useful in the heat treatment of the steels studied, some of which are in the development stage. (orig.)

  1. Fractal diffusion coefficient from dynamical zeta functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cristadoro, Giampaolo [Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Noethnitzer Str. 38, D 01187 Dresden (Germany)

    2006-03-10

    Dynamical zeta functions provide a powerful method to analyse low-dimensional dynamical systems when the underlying symbolic dynamics is under control. On the other hand, even simple one-dimensional maps can show an intricate structure of the grammar rules that may lead to a non-smooth dependence of global observables on parameters changes. A paradigmatic example is the fractal diffusion coefficient arising in a simple piecewise linear one-dimensional map of the real line. Using the Baladi-Ruelle generalization of the Milnor-Thurnston kneading determinant, we provide the exact dynamical zeta function for such a map and compute the diffusion coefficient from its smallest zero. (letter to the editor)

  2. Fractal diffusion coefficient from dynamical zeta functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cristadoro, Giampaolo

    2006-01-01

    Dynamical zeta functions provide a powerful method to analyse low-dimensional dynamical systems when the underlying symbolic dynamics is under control. On the other hand, even simple one-dimensional maps can show an intricate structure of the grammar rules that may lead to a non-smooth dependence of global observables on parameters changes. A paradigmatic example is the fractal diffusion coefficient arising in a simple piecewise linear one-dimensional map of the real line. Using the Baladi-Ruelle generalization of the Milnor-Thurnston kneading determinant, we provide the exact dynamical zeta function for such a map and compute the diffusion coefficient from its smallest zero. (letter to the editor)

  3. Asymptotic normalization coefficients and astrophysical factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukhamedzhanov, A.M.; Azhari, A.; Clark, H.L.; Gagliardi, C.A.; Lui, Y.-W.; Sattarov, A.; Trache, L.; Tribble, R.E.; Burjan, V.; Kroha, V.; Carstoiu, F.

    2000-01-01

    The S factor for the direct capture reaction 7 Be(p,γ) 8 B can be found at astrophysical energies from the asymptotic normalization coefficients (ANC's) which provide the normalization of the tails of the overlap functions for 8 B → 7 Be + p. Peripheral transfer reactions offer a technique to determine these ANC's. Using this technique, the 10 B( 7 Be, 8 B) 9 Be and 14 N( 7 Be, 8 B) 13 C reactions have been used to measure the asymptotic normalization coefficient for 7 Be(p, γ) 8 B. These results provide an indirect determination of S 17 (0). Analysis of the existing 9 Be(p, γ) 10 B experimental data within the framework of the R-matrix method demonstrates that experimentally measured ANC's can provide a reasonable determination of direct radiative capture rates. (author)

  4. Differences between charged-current coefficient functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moch, S.; Rogal, M.; Vogt, A.

    2007-08-01

    Second- and third-order results are presented for the structure functions of charged-current deepinelastic scattering in the framework of massless perturbative QCD. We write down the two-loop differences between the corresponding crossing-even and -odd coefficient functions, including those for the longitudinal structure function not covered in the literature so far. At three loops we compute the lowest five moments of these differences for all three structure functions and provide approximate expressions in Bjorken-x space. Also calculated is the related third-order coefficient-function correction to the Gottfried sum rule. We confirm the conjectured suppression of these quantities if the number of colours is large. Finally we derive the second- and third-order QCD contributions to the Paschos-Wolfenstein ratio used for the determination of the weak mixing angle from neutrino-nucleon deep-inelastic scattering. These contributions are found to be small. (orig.)

  5. Activity coefficient of aqueous sodium bicarbonate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pitzer, Kenneth S. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Peiper, J. Christopher [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1980-09-01

    The determination of the activity coefficient and related properties of sodium bicarbonate presents special problems because of the appreciable vapor pressure of CO2 above such solutions. With the development of reliable equations for the thermodynamic properties of mixed electrolytes, it is possible to determine the parameters for NaHCO3 from cell measurements or NaCl-NaHCO3 mixtures. Literature data are analyzed to illustrate the method and provide interim values, hoever it is noted that further measurements over a wider range of concentrations would yield more definitive results. Lastly, an estimate is also given for the activity coefficient of KHCO3.

  6. Gate Control Coefficient Effect on CNFET Characteristic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanudin, Rahmat; Ma'Radzi, Ahmad Alabqari; Nayan, Nafarizal

    2009-01-01

    The development of carbon nanotube field-effect transistor (CNFET) as alternative to existing transistor technology has long been published and discussed. The emergence of this device offers new material and structure in building a transistor. This paper intends to do an analysis of gate control coefficient effect on CNFET performance. The analysis is based on simulation study of current-voltage (I-V) characteristic of ballistic CNFET. The simulation study used the MOSFET-like CNFET mathematical model to establish the device output characteristic. Based on the analysis of simulation result, it is found that the gate control coefficient contributes to a significant effect on the performance of CNFET. The result also shown the parameter could help to improve the device performance in terms of its output and response as well. Nevertheless, the characteristic of the carbon nanotube that acts as the channel is totally important in determining the performance of the transistor as a whole.

  7. Atomic rate coefficients in a degenerate plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslanyan, Valentin; Tallents, Greg

    2015-11-01

    The electrons in a dense, degenerate plasma follow Fermi-Dirac statistics, which deviate significantly in this regime from the usual Maxwell-Boltzmann approach used by many models. We present methods to calculate the atomic rate coefficients for the Fermi-Dirac distribution and present a comparison of the ionization fraction of carbon calculated using both models. We have found that for densities close to solid, although the discrepancy is small for LTE conditions, there is a large divergence from the ionization fraction by using classical rate coefficients in the presence of strong photoionizing radiation. We have found that using these modified rates and the degenerate heat capacity may affect the time evolution of a plasma subject to extreme ultraviolet and x-ray radiation such as produced in free electron laser irradiation of solid targets.

  8. Relations between coefficients of fractional parentage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamick, L.

    2007-01-01

    For each of the (9/2) (11/2), and (13/2) single j shells we have only one state with J=j v=3 for a five particle system. For four identical particles there can be more than one state of seniority four. We note some 'ratio' relations for the coefficients of fractional parentage for the four and five identical particle systems, which are found in the works of de Shalit and Talmi [Nuclear Shell Theory (Academic Press, New York, 1963)] and Talmi [Simple Models of Complex Nuclei (Harwood Academic, Reading, UK, 1993)] to be useful for explaining the vanishing of a five particle coefficients of fractional parentage (cfp). These relations are used to show that there is a special (g 9/2 ) 4 I=4 v=4 wave function that cannot be admixed with an I=4 v=2 wave function, even with seniority violating interactions

  9. The coefficient of friction, particularly of ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, Allan

    2008-01-01

    The static and dynamic coefficients of friction are defined, and values from 0.3 to 0.6 are quoted for common materials. These drop to about 0.15 when oil is added as a lubricant. Water ice at temperatures not far below 0 °C is remarkable for low coefficients of around 0.05 for static friction and 0.04–0.02 for dynamic friction, but these figures increase as the temperature diminishes. Reasons for the slipperiness of ice are summarized, but they are still not entirely clear. One hypothesis suggests that it is related to the transient formation of a lubricating film of liquid water produced by frictional heating. If this is the case, some composition melting a little above ambient temperatures might provide a skating rink that did not require expensive refrigeration. Various compositions have been tested, but an entirely satisfactory material has yet to be found

  10. Diffusion coefficient calculations for cylindrical cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam-Hime, M.

    1983-03-01

    An accurate and general diffusion coefficient calculation for cylindrical cells is described using isotropic scattering integral transport theory. This method has been particularly applied to large regular lattices of graphite-moderated reactors with annular coolant channels. The cells are divided into homogeneous zones, and a zone-wise flux expansion is used to formulate a collision probability problem. The reflection of neutrons at the cell boundary is accounted for by the conservation of the neutron momentum. The uncorrected diffusion coefficient Benoist's definition is used, and the described formulation does not neglect any effect. Angular correlation terms, energy coupling non-uniformity and anisotropy of the classical flux are exactly taken into account. Results for gas-graphite typical cells are given showing the importance of these approximations

  11. Doppler coefficient measurements in Zebra Core 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, A.R.; Wheeler, R.C.

    1965-11-01

    Measurements using a central hot loop in Zebra Core 5 are described. Results are given for the Doppler coefficients found in a number of assemblies with PuO 2 and 16% PuO 2 /84% depleted UO 2 pins, loaded with different combinations of steel, sodium or void pins. The mixed oxide results are in general about 20% more negative than was calculated using the FD2 data set, but agreement is good if the plutonium contributions in the calculations are omitted. The small positive Doppler coefficient calculated for Pu239 was not observed, and two measurements indicated instead a small negative effect. The Doppler effect in the mixed oxide systems was found to vary approximately as 1/T. The results from the empty loop and non-fissile assemblies indicate either a small negative Doppler effect in steel or alternatively the presence of an unexplained expansion effect. (author)

  12. Activity coefficients of solutes in binary solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gokcen, N.A.

    1982-01-01

    The activity coefficients in dilute ternary systems are discussed in detail by using the Margules equations. Analyses of some relevant data at high temperatures show that the sparingly dissolved solutes in binary solvents follow complex behavior even when the binary solvents are very nearly ideal. It is shown that the activity data on the solute or the binary system cannot permit computation of the remaining activities except for the regular solutions. It is also shown that a fourth-order equation is usually adequate in expressing the activity coefficient of a solute in binary solvents at high temperatures. When the activity data for a binary solvent are difficult to obtain in a certain range of composition, the activity data for a sparingly dissolved solute can be used to supplement determination of the binary activities

  13. Differences between charged-current coefficient functions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moch, S.; Rogal, M. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany); Vogt, A. [Liverpool Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Mathematical Sciences

    2007-08-15

    Second- and third-order results are presented for the structure functions of charged-current deepinelastic scattering in the framework of massless perturbative QCD. We write down the two-loop differences between the corresponding crossing-even and -odd coefficient functions, including those for the longitudinal structure function not covered in the literature so far. At three loops we compute the lowest five moments of these differences for all three structure functions and provide approximate expressions in Bjorken-x space. Also calculated is the related third-order coefficient-function correction to the Gottfried sum rule. We confirm the conjectured suppression of these quantities if the number of colours is large. Finally we derive the second- and third-order QCD contributions to the Paschos-Wolfenstein ratio used for the determination of the weak mixing angle from neutrino-nucleon deep-inelastic scattering. These contributions are found to be small. (orig.)

  14. Dynamics analysis of SIR epidemic model with correlation coefficients and clustering coefficient in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Juping; Yang, Chan; Jin, Zhen; Li, Jia

    2018-07-14

    In this paper, the correlation coefficients between nodes in states are used as dynamic variables, and we construct SIR epidemic dynamic models with correlation coefficients by using the pair approximation method in static networks and dynamic networks, respectively. Considering the clustering coefficient of the network, we analytically investigate the existence and the local asymptotic stability of each equilibrium of these models and derive threshold values for the prevalence of diseases. Additionally, we obtain two equivalent epidemic thresholds in dynamic networks, which are compared with the results of the mean field equations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. On the form of ROCs constructed from confidence ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malmberg, Kenneth J

    2002-03-01

    A classical question for memory researchers is whether memories vary in an all-or-nothing, discrete manner (e.g., stored vs. not stored, recalled vs. not recalled), or whether they vary along a continuous dimension (e.g., strength, similarity, or familiarity). For yes-no classification tasks, continuous- and discrete-state models predict nonlinear and linear receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), respectively (D. M. Green & J. A. Swets, 1966; N. A. Macmillan & C. D. Creelman, 1991). Recently, several authors have assumed that these predictions are generalizable to confidence ratings tasks (J. Qin, C. L. Raye, M. K. Johnson, & K. J. Mitchell, 2001; S. D. Slotnick, S. A. Klein, C. S. Dodson, & A. P. Shimamura, 2000, and A. P. Yonelinas, 1999). This assumption is shown to be unwarranted by showing that discrete-state ratings models predict both linear and nonlinear ROCs. The critical factor determining the form of the discrete-state ROC is the response strategy adopted by the classifier.

  16. Global upstream investment faces a crisis of confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, Richard

    2001-01-01

    Offshore business appears to be in a catch-22 situation between on the one hand the interests of global economic welfare and on the other the stock market demands. The oil and gas industries need to grow the return on capital and to compete effectively with other (better performing) industries. But, the world demands more oil and very soon, and these are the issues and consequences discussed. The US government is confident that non-Opec oil supply can increase by 12.8 Mbd between now and 2020 and this is significantly more than projected in the last forecast. The article is presented under the headings of (i) value creation paradigm; (ii) spelling it out for 2001 and (iii) big projects, long lead times. Diagrams show (a) world oil demand 1971-2020; (b) fractional change in Brent prices 1986-2001 and (c) wells drilled and annual production in Prudhoe bay 1974-2010. Figures for the International Energy Agency forecast for both Opec and non-Opec countries are mentioned

  17. Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Castro

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007.Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.

  18. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuel Santos

    Full Text Available Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

  19. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

  20. Confidence building in and through fission and fusion activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toyojiro Fuketa

    1989-01-01

    The peaceful uses of atomic energy are most suitable for achieving worldwide confidence building for the following reasons. (1) In spite of the need for peaceful uses of nuclear energy, the world is facing difficulties in the public perception and acceptance of nuclear works and facilities. (2) The above difficulties are due to many factors, such as the two sides of nuclear energy peaceful and military, the possibility of a large-scale reactor accident, the lack of understanding about radiation and radioactivity, and finally, emotion and egoism. Some of these factors are unique to nuclear-energy, but in other cases of public reactions, there are many facets similar to the above factors. (3) The public concern about safety is at its highest, broadest and severest point ever, coincident with the highest life expectancy in history. Over-precaution and over-protection about certain things may sometimes spoil one's health. Nuclear energy is most definitely suffering from such a trend. As a result, a severe nuclear accident in any country results in severe damage worldwide no manner in what form the real physical effects reach other countries. (4) The huge science and technology efforts required for fission and fusion activities cannot be fully achieved by one country. Explanations of some of the above factors are given. 2 refs

  1. Building confidence and credibility amid growing model and computing complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, K. J.; Mahajan, S.; Veneziani, C.; Kennedy, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    As global Earth system models are developed to answer an ever-wider range of science questions, software products that provide robust verification, validation, and evaluation must evolve in tandem. Measuring the degree to which these new models capture past behavior, predict the future, and provide the certainty of predictions is becoming ever more challenging for reasons that are generally well known, yet are still challenging to address. Two specific and divergent needs for analysis of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) model - but with a similar software philosophy - are presented to show how a model developer-based focus can address analysis needs during expansive model changes to provide greater fidelity and execute on multi-petascale computing facilities. A-PRIME is a python script-based quick-look overview of a fully-coupled global model configuration to determine quickly if it captures specific behavior before significant computer time and expense is invested. EVE is an ensemble-based software framework that focuses on verification of performance-based ACME model development, such as compiler or machine settings, to determine the equivalence of relevant climate statistics. The challenges and solutions for analysis of multi-petabyte output data are highlighted from the aspect of the scientist using the software, with the aim of fostering discussion and further input from the community about improving developer confidence and community credibility.

  2. Data assimilation method based on the constraints of confidence region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yong; Li, Siming; Sheng, Yao; Wang, Luheng

    2018-03-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a distinguished data assimilation method that is widely used and studied in various fields including methodology and oceanography. However, due to the limited sample size or imprecise dynamics model, it is usually easy for the forecast error variance to be underestimated, which further leads to the phenomenon of filter divergence. Additionally, the assimilation results of the initial stage are poor if the initial condition settings differ greatly from the true initial state. To address these problems, the variance inflation procedure is usually adopted. In this paper, we propose a new method based on the constraints of a confidence region constructed by the observations, called EnCR, to estimate the inflation parameter of the forecast error variance of the EnKF method. In the new method, the state estimate is more robust to both the inaccurate forecast models and initial condition settings. The new method is compared with other adaptive data assimilation methods in the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models under various model parameter settings. The simulation results show that the new method performs better than the competing methods.

  3. Analytical expressions for the electron backscattering coefficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    August, H.J.; Wernisch, J.

    1989-01-01

    Several analytical expressions for the electron backscattering coefficient for massive homogeneous samples are compared with experimental data, directing special attention to the dependence of this quantity on the electron acceleration energy. It is shown that this dependence generally cannot be neglected. The expression proposed by Hunger and Kuechler turns out to be better than that of Love and Scott, although even the better formula can be slightly improved by a small modification. (author)

  4. Thin film description by wavelet coefficients statistics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Boldyš, Jiří; Hrach, R.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 55, č. 1 (2005), s. 55-64 ISSN 0011-4626 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) 173/2003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : thin films * wavelet transform * descriptors * histogram model Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 0.360, year: 2005 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2009/ZOI/boldys-thin film description by wavelet coefficients statistics .pdf

  5. Analytic posteriors for Pearson's correlation coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ly, Alexander; Marsman, Maarten; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2018-02-01

    Pearson's correlation is one of the most common measures of linear dependence. Recently, Bernardo (11th International Workshop on Objective Bayes Methodology, 2015) introduced a flexible class of priors to study this measure in a Bayesian setting. For this large class of priors, we show that the (marginal) posterior for Pearson's correlation coefficient and all of the posterior moments are analytic. Our results are available in the open-source software package JASP.

  6. Analytic posteriors for Pearson's correlation coefficient

    OpenAIRE

    Ly, A.; Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2018-01-01

    Pearson's correlation is one of the most common measures of linear dependence. Recently, Bernardo (11th International Workshop on Objective Bayes Methodology, 2015) introduced a flexible class of priors to study this measure in a Bayesian setting. For this large class of priors, we show that the (marginal) posterior for Pearson's correlation coefficient and all of the posterior moments are analytic. Our results are available in the open‐source software package JASP.

  7. Transport Coefficients from Large Deviation Functions

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Chloe Ya; Limmer, David T.

    2017-01-01

    We describe a method for computing transport coefficients from the direct evaluation of large deviation functions. This method is general, relying on only equilibrium fluctuations, and is statistically efficient, employing trajectory based importance sampling. Equilibrium fluctuations of molecular currents are characterized by their large deviation functions, which are scaled cumulant generating functions analogous to the free energies. A diffusion Monte Carlo algorithm is used to evaluate th...

  8. Correlation and prediction of gaseous diffusion coefficients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero, T. R.; Mason, E. A.

    1973-01-01

    A new correlation method for binary gaseous diffusion coefficients from very low temperatures to 10,000 K is proposed based on an extended principle of corresponding states, and having greater range and accuracy than previous correlations. There are two correlation parameters that are related to other physical quantities and that are predictable in the absence of diffusion measurements. Quantum effects and composition dependence are included, but high-pressure effects are not. The results are directly applicable to multicomponent mixtures.

  9. Moderator temperature coefficient in BWR core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naito, Yoshitaka

    1977-01-01

    Temperature dependences of infinite multiplication factor k sub(infinity) and neutron leakage from the core must be examined for estimation of moderator temperature coefficient. Temperature dependence on k sub(infinity) has been investigated by many researchers, however, the dependence on neutron leakage of a BWR with cruciformed control rods has hardly been done. Because there are difficulties and necessity on calculations of three space dimensional and multi-energy groups neutron distribution in a BWR core. In this study, moderator temperature coefficients of JPDR-II (BWR) core were obtained by calculation with DIFFUSION-ACE, which is newly developed three-dimensional multi-group computer code. The results were compared with experimental data measured from 20 to 275 0 C of the moderator temperature and the good agreement was obtained between calculation and measurement. In order to evaluate neutron leakage from the core, the other two calculations were carried out, adjusting criticality by uniform absorption rate and by material buckling. The former underestimated neutron leakage and the latter overestimated it. Discussion on the results shows that in order to estimate the temperature coefficient of BWR, neutron leakage must be evaluated precisely, therefore the calculation at actual pattern of control rods is necessary. (auth.)

  10. Analysis of flow coefficient in chair manufacture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivković Dragoljub

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The delivery on time is not possible without the good-quality planning of deadlines, i.e. planning of the manufacturing process duration. The study of flow coefficient enables the realistic forecasting of the manufacturing process duration. This paper points to the significance of the study of flow coefficient on scientific basis so as to determine the terms of the end of the manufacture of chairs made of sawn timber. Chairs are the products of complex construction, often almost completely made of sawn timber as the basic material. They belong to the group of export products, so it is especially significant to analyze the duration of the production cycle, and the type and the degree of stoppages in this type of production. Parallel method of production is applied in chair manufacture. The study shows that the value of flow coefficient is close to one or higher, in most cases. The results indicate that the percentage of interoperational stoppage is unjustifiably high, so it is proposed how to decrease the percentage of stoppages in the manufacturing process.

  11. Varying coefficients model with measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liang; Greene, Tom

    2008-06-01

    We propose a semiparametric partially varying coefficient model to study the relationship between serum creatinine concentration and the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) among kidney donors and patients with chronic kidney disease. A regression model is used to relate serum creatinine to GFR and demographic factors in which coefficient of GFR is expressed as a function of age to allow its effect to be age dependent. GFR measurements obtained from the clearance of a radioactively labeled isotope are assumed to be a surrogate for the true GFR, with the relationship between measured and true GFR expressed using an additive error model. We use locally corrected score equations to estimate parameters and coefficient functions, and propose an expected generalized cross-validation (EGCV) method to select the kernel bandwidth. The performance of the proposed methods, which avoid distributional assumptions on the true GFR and residuals, is investigated by simulation. Accounting for measurement error using the proposed model reduced apparent inconsistencies in the relationship between serum creatinine and GFR among different clinical data sets derived from kidney donor and chronic kidney disease source populations.

  12. Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

    2012-08-01

    This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Distribution coefficient Kd in surface soils collected in Aomori prefecture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsukada, Hirofumi; Hasegawa, Hidenao; Hisamatsu, Shun'ichi; Inaba, Jiro

    2000-01-01

    Soil-solution distribution coefficients (Kds), which are the ratio of an element concentration in a soil solid phase to that in a solution phase, for 32 elements in Andosols, Wet Andosols and Gleyed Andosols collected throughout Aomori Prefecture were determined. A dried soil sample was mixed with a 10-fold amount of pure water in a PPCO centrifuge tube, and then gently shaken for 24 h. The Kd values were obtained by measurement of element concentrations in solid and solution phases (batch method). The Kd values in this work were up to three orders of magnitude higher than the IAEA reported values, and their 95% confidence intervals were within two orders of magnitude. Most Kd values of elements were decreasing with increasing electrical conductivity of the solution phase. The Kd of Ca had a good correlation with that of Sr. However, the correlation between the Kds of K and Cs was not good. The Kd values were also determined by another method. The soil solutions were separated from the fresh soil samples by means of high speed centrifuging. The Kd values were calculated from the element concentration in solid phase and soil solution (centrifugation method). The Kd values obtained by the centrifugation method agreed within one order of magnitude with those by the batch method, and both variation patterns in elements correlated well. (author)

  14. Number of core samples: Mean concentrations and confidence intervals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, L.; Cromar, R.D.; Wilmarth, S.R.; Heasler, P.G.

    1995-01-01

    This document provides estimates of how well the mean concentration of analytes are known as a function of the number of core samples, composite samples, and replicate analyses. The estimates are based upon core composite data from nine recently sampled single-shell tanks. The results can be used when determining the number of core samples needed to ''characterize'' the waste from similar single-shell tanks. A standard way of expressing uncertainty in the estimate of a mean is with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The authors investigate how the width of a 95% CI on the mean concentration decreases as the number of observations increase. Specifically, the tables and figures show how the relative half-width (RHW) of a 95% CI decreases as the number of core samples increases. The RHW of a CI is a unit-less measure of uncertainty. The general conclusions are as follows: (1) the RHW decreases dramatically as the number of core samples is increased, the decrease is much smaller when the number of composited samples or the number of replicate analyses are increase; (2) if the mean concentration of an analyte needs to be estimated with a small RHW, then a large number of core samples is required. The estimated number of core samples given in the tables and figures were determined by specifying different sizes of the RHW. Four nominal sizes were examined: 10%, 25%, 50%, and 100% of the observed mean concentration. For a majority of analytes the number of core samples required to achieve an accuracy within 10% of the mean concentration is extremely large. In many cases, however, two or three core samples is sufficient to achieve a RHW of approximately 50 to 100%. Because many of the analytes in the data have small concentrations, this level of accuracy may be satisfactory for some applications

  15. Determination of coefficient matrices for ARMA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tran Dinh Tri.

    1990-10-01

    A new recursive algorithm for determining coefficient matrices of ARMA model from measured data is presented. The Yule-Walker equations for the case of ARMA model are derived from the ARMA innovation equation. The recursive algorithm is based on choosing appropriate form of the operator functions and suitable representation of the (n+1)-th order operator functions according to ones with the lower order. Two cases, when the order of the AR part is equal to one of the MA part, and the optimal case, were considered. (author) 5 refs

  16. Quenching of Einstein-coefficients by photons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aumayr, F.; Skinner, C.H.; Suckewer, S.; Princeton Univ., NJ; Lee, W.

    1991-02-01

    Experimental evidence is presented for the change of Einstein's A-coefficients for spontaneous transitions from the upper laser level of an argon ion laser discharge due to the presence of the high-intensity laser flux. To demonstrate that this quenching effect cannot be attributed to a reduction in self-absorption of the strong spontaneous emission line, absorption and line profile measurements have been performed. Computer modelling of the reduction of self absorption due to Rabi splitting also indicated that this effect is too small to explain the observed quenching of spontaneous line emissions. 13 refs., 11 figs

  17. Quenching of Einstein-coefficients by photons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aumayr, F.; Lee, W.; Skinner, C.H.; Suckewer, S.

    1991-03-01

    Experimental evidence is presented for the change of Einstein's A- coefficients for spontaneous transitions from the upper laser level of argon ion laser discharge due to the presence of the high- intensity laser flux. To demonstrate that this quenching effect cannot be attributed to a reduction in self-absorption of the strong spontaneous emission line, absorption and line profile measurements have been performed. Computer modelling of the reduction of self absorption due to Rabi splitting also indicated that this effect is too small to explain the observed quenching of spontaneous line emissions. 13 refs., 11 figs

  18. Kinetic coefficients in isotopically disordered crystals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhernov, Arkadii P; Inyushkin, Alexander V

    2002-01-01

    Peculiarities of the behavior of kinetic coefficients, like thermal conductivity, electric conductivity, and thermoelectric power, in isotopically disordered materials are reviewed in detail. New experimental and theoretical results on the isotope effects in the thermal conductivity of diamond, Ge, and Si semiconductors are presented. The suppression effect of phonon-drag thermopower in the isotopically disordered Ge crystals is discussed. The influence of dynamic and static crystal lattice deformations on the electric conductivity of metals as well as on the ordinary phonon spectrum deformations is considered. (reviews of topical problems)

  19. Peltier coefficient measurement in a thermoelectric module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrido, Javier; Casanovas, Alejandro; Chimeno, José María

    2013-01-01

    A new method for measuring the Peltier coefficient in a thermocouple X/Y based on the energy balance at the junction has been proposed recently. This technique needs only the hot and cold temperatures of a thermoelectric module when an electric current flows through it as the operational variables. The temperature evolutions of the two module sides provide an evident and accurate idea of the Peltier effect. From these temperatures, the heat transfer between the module and the ambient is also evaluated. The thermoelectric phenomena are described in the framework of an observable theory. Based on this procedure, an experiment is presented for a university teaching laboratory at the undergraduate level. (paper)

  20. Friction coefficient determination by electrical resistance measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunyagi, A.; Kandrai, K.; Fülöp, Z.; Kapusi, Z.; Simon, A.

    2018-05-01

    A simple and low-cost, DIY-type, Arduino-driven experiment is presented for the study of friction and measurement of the friction coefficient, using a conductive rubber cord as a force sensor. It is proposed for high-school or college/university-level students. We strongly believe that it is worthwhile planning, designing and performing Arduino and compatible sensor-based experiments in physics class in order to ensure a better understanding of phenomena, develop theoretical knowledge and multiple experimental skills.