Sample records for conditions risk assessment

  1. Conditional risk assessment of adolescents' electronic cigarette perceptions. (United States)

    Chaffee, Benjamin W; Gansky, Stuart A; Halpern-Felsher, Bonnie; Couch, Elizabeth T; Essex, Gwen; Walsh, Margaret M


    To adapt an established instrument for measuring adolescents' cigarette-related perceptions for new application with electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). In this exploratory study, 104 male high school students (40% tobacco ever-users) estimated the probability of potential e-cigarette risks (eg, lung cancer) or benefits (eg, look cool). We calculated associations between risk/benefit composite scores, ever-use, and use intention for e-cigarettes, and analogously, for combustible cigarettes. E-cigarette ever-use was associated with lower perceived risks, with adjusted differences versus never-users greater for e-cigarettes than for cigarettes. Risk composite score was inversely associated, and benefit score positively associated, with e-cigarette ever-use and use intention. Conditional risk assessment characterized adolescents' perceived e-cigarette risk/benefit profile, with potential utility for risk-perception measurement in future studies.

  2. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston


    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  3. Risk Assessment of Oil Pipeline Accidents in Special Climatic Conditions (United States)

    Vtorushina, A. N.; Anishchenko, Y. V.; Nikonova, E. D.


    The present study identifies the main accidents’ factors and causes for oil pipeline located in Siberia and operated in special climatic conditions. Various types of pipeline accident scenarios were modeled. It is showed that the most dangerous scenarios are oil spills fire and oil vapor explosion due to the loss of piping integrity (rupture) of the pipeline’s section, laying on marshlands and oil spill on the water surface due to the loss of piping integrity (puncture). The most probable scenario is oil spills fire due to the loss of piping integrity (puncture) of the pipeline’s section, laying on dry lands and marshlands. To estimate the scenarios «event tree analysis» is used. Also such risk indexes as individual, societal, public and potential risks were determined.

  4. Urban Flood Risk Assessment Under Uncertain Conditions and Scarce Information (United States)

    Rodríguez-Gaviria, E. M.; Botero-Fernandez, V.


    Flood risk management in small urban areas in Colombia has a great degree of uncertainty due to the low availability and quality of data, the non-existent personnel qualified in the collection and processing of data, and the insufficient information to evaluate the risk and vulnerability. It is because of this that two methods are developed: one for the generation of flood threat maps for different return periods combining historical, geomorphological, and hydrological hydraulic methods assisted by remote sensors and SIG through the use of data acquired through field campaigns, official hydrological networks, orthophotos, multitemporal topographic maps, and ASTER, STRM, and LiDAR images. And another method in which categorical variables are established, linking local physical, social, economical, environmental and political-institutional factors that are explored through different media such as reports, news, databases, transects, interviews, community workshops, and surveys conducted at homes. Such variables were included within an analysis of multiple correspondence to conduct a descriptive study of the exposure, susceptibility, and capacity conditions and to create a vulnerability index that was spatially plotted spatially on maps. The uncertainty is reduced in the measure in which local knowledge is used as a source of information acquisition, of validation of what already exists, and of calibration of the proposed methods. This research was applied to the urban centers of Caucasia (Antioquia) and Plato (Magdalena), which have been historically affected by slow flooding of the Magdalena and Cauca river, it being especially useful in the selection of best alternatives for risk management, planning for development, and land use management, with the possibility of replicating it to benefit other municipalities that experience the same reality.

  5. Model Development for Risk Assessment of Driving on Freeway under Rainy Weather Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaonan Cai

    Full Text Available Rainy weather conditions could result in significantly negative impacts on driving on freeways. However, due to lack of enough historical data and monitoring facilities, many regions are not able to establish reliable risk assessment models to identify such impacts. Given the situation, this paper provides an alternative solution where the procedure of risk assessment is developed based on drivers' subjective questionnaire and its performance is validated by using actual crash data. First, an ordered logit model was developed, based on questionnaire data collected from Freeway G15 in China, to estimate the relationship between drivers' perceived risk and factors, including vehicle type, rain intensity, traffic volume, and location. Then, weighted driving risk for different conditions was obtained by the model, and further divided into four levels of early warning (specified by colors using a rank order cluster analysis. After that, a risk matrix was established to determine which warning color should be disseminated to drivers, given a specific condition. Finally, to validate the proposed procedure, actual crash data from Freeway G15 were compared with the safety prediction based on the risk matrix. The results show that the risk matrix obtained in the study is able to predict driving risk consistent with actual safety implications, under rainy weather conditions.

  6. The human spirit as a necessary condition for higher education: a risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J S Wessels


    Full Text Available Risk management can either protect or endanger higher education institutions (HEIs in South Africa. A crucial determining factor is how the core risks for these institutions are identified and mitigated. This article contributes to the continuing discourse on both risk management and managerialism in higher education. The thesis for this article is that the presence of a caring human spirit within HEIs is a necessary condition for them to fulfil their reason for existence. The purpose of this article is thus to reflect on the risk of HEIs not being able to fulfil their fundamental reason for existence due to the smothering or absence of a caring human spirit in these institutions. A reading of official and scholarly texts has shown that HEIs’ primary reason for existence is embedded risk, namely a concern with the new or the unknown and by implication a critical curiosity about an uncertain future. The presence of a caring human spirit is not only a necessary condition for fulfilling the reason for the existence of an HEI, but also a crucial risk category currently absent from the standard list of institutional risk categories. Risk assessment reveals that the absence or smothering of a caring human spirit in HEIs poses a high to very high risk for their survival.

  7. Current Conditions Risk Assessment for the 300-FF-5 Groundwater Operable Unit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miley, Terri B.; Bunn, Amoret L.; Napier, Bruce A.; Peterson, Robert E.; Becker, James M.


    This report updates a baseline risk assessment for the 300 Area prepared in 1994. The update includes consideration of changes in contaminants of interest and in the environment that have occurred during the period of interim remedial action, i.e., 1996 to the present, as well as the sub-regions, for which no initial risk assessments have been conducted. In 1996, a record of decision (ROD) stipulated interim remedial action for groundwater affected by releases from 300 Area sources, as follows: (a) continued monitoring of groundwater that is contaminated above health-based levels to ensure that concentrations continue to decrease, and (b) institutional controls to ensure that groundwater use is restricted to prevent unacceptable exposure to groundwater contamination. In 2000, the groundwater beneath the two outlying sub-regions was added to the operable unit. In 2001, the first 5-year review of the ROD found that the interim remedy and remedial action objectives were still appropriate, although the review called for additional characterization activities. This report includes a current conditions baseline ecological and human health risk assessment using maximum concentrations in the environmental media of the 300-FF-5 Operable Unit and downstream conditions at the City of Richland, Washington. The scope for this assessment includes only current measured environmental concentrations and current use scenarios. Future environmental concentrations and future land uses are not considered in this assessment.

  8. Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions (United States)

    Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.


    The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

  9. An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.


    The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

  10. Risk Assessment (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  11. Technical Needs for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Equipment Condition Assessment for Advanced Small Modular Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coble, Jamie B.; Coles, Garill A.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Meyer, Ryan M.; Berglin, Eric J.; Wootan, David W.; Mitchell, Mark R.


    Advanced small modular reactors (aSMRs) can provide the United States with a safe, sustainable, and carbon-neutral energy source. The controllable day-to-day costs of aSMRs are expected to be dominated by operation and maintenance costs. Health and condition assessment coupled with online risk monitors can potentially enhance affordability of aSMRs through optimized operational planning and maintenance scheduling. Currently deployed risk monitors are an extension of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For complex engineered systems like nuclear power plants, PRA systematically combines event likelihoods and the probability of failure (POF) of key components, so that when combined with the magnitude of possible adverse consequences to determine risk. Traditional PRA uses population-based POF information to estimate the average plant risk over time. Currently, most nuclear power plants have a PRA that reflects the as-operated, as-modified plant; this model is updated periodically, typically once a year. Risk monitors expand on living PRA by incorporating changes in the day-by-day plant operation and configuration (e.g., changes in equipment availability, operating regime, environmental conditions). However, population-based POF (or population- and time-based POF) is still used to populate fault trees. Health monitoring techniques can be used to establish condition indicators and monitoring capabilities that indicate the component-specific POF at a desired point in time (or over a desired period), which can then be incorporated in the risk monitor to provide a more accurate estimate of the plant risk in different configurations. This is particularly important for active systems, structures, and components (SSCs) proposed for use in aSMR designs. These SSCs may differ significantly from those used in the operating fleet of light-water reactors (or even in LWR-based SMR designs). Additionally, the operating characteristics of aSMRs can present significantly different

  12. Environmental risk assessment of GE plants under low-exposure conditions. (United States)

    Roberts, Andrew; Devos, Yann; Raybould, Alan; Bigelow, Patrick; Gray, Alan


    The requirement for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of genetically engineered (GE) plants prior to large scale or commercial introduction into the environment is well established in national laws and regulations, as well as in international agreements. Since the first introductions of GE plants in commercial agriculture in the 1990s, a nearly universal paradigm has emerged for conducting these assessments based on a few guiding principles. These include the concept of case-by-case assessment, the use of comparative assessments, and a focus of the ERA on characteristics of the plant, the introduced trait, and the receiving environment as well as the intended use. In practice, however, ERAs for GE plants have frequently focused on achieving highly detailed characterizations of potential hazards at the expense of consideration of the relevant levels of exposure. This emphasis on exhaustive hazard characterization can lead to great difficulties when applied to ERA for GE plants under low-exposure conditions. This paper presents some relevant considerations for conducting an ERA for a GE plant in a low-exposure scenario in the context of the generalized ERA paradigm, building on discussions and case studies presented during a session at ISBGMO 12.

  13. Risk assessment during operating self-propelled lifting jib cranes in conditions of insufficient information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lagerev A.V.


    Full Text Available Presents the results of statistical analyses identified by the expert diagnostics of defects of the self-propelled lifting jib cranes, spent a normative term of exploitation. The greatest number of defects associated with the destruction and dete-rioration of structural elements, the occurrence of fatigue cracks and a violation of the conditions of operation of the equipment. The greatest number of defects occurs in the hydraulic system of cranes, the rope-block system, and rarely in steel structures. To conduct risk analysis of self-propelled jib cranes in case of insufficient information, proposed the method of expert estimations. It allows to assess the impact of potential defects on self-propelled jib cranes on the value of the economic damage of the crane and moving cargo and the value of the traumatic exposure on men. The proposed list of possible defects self-propelled lifting jib cranes and a checklist of questions about the degree of influence of these defects. Proposed calculated dependences to the approximate calculation of the magnitude of technical risk in the opera-tion of self-propelled jib cranes. The results of statistical analysis of expert estimations for each possible defect and per-formed their ranking in terms of impact on the magnitude of the economic damage of the crane and moving loads, the value of the traumatic exposure. Was calculated the value of technical risk for the surveyed taps.

  14. Modeling intelligent adversaries for terrorism risk assessment: some necessary conditions for adversary models. (United States)

    Guikema, Seth


    Intelligent adversary modeling has become increasingly important for risk analysis, and a number of different approaches have been proposed for incorporating intelligent adversaries in risk analysis models. However, these approaches are based on a range of often-implicit assumptions about the desirable properties of intelligent adversary models. This "Perspective" paper aims to further risk analysis for situations involving intelligent adversaries by fostering a discussion of the desirable properties for these models. A set of four basic necessary conditions for intelligent adversary models is proposed and discussed. These are: (1) behavioral accuracy to the degree possible, (2) computational tractability to support decision making, (3) explicit consideration of uncertainty, and (4) ability to gain confidence in the model. It is hoped that these suggested necessary conditions foster discussion about the goals and assumptions underlying intelligent adversary modeling in risk analysis. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Hygienic assessment of priority risk factors of environment and health condition of the population of Moscow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.E. Andreeva


    Full Text Available The article describes the results of work on the dual hygienic assessment of priority risk factors of the environment and the health condition of the population of Moscow. It is shown that in the territory of the metropolis the impact of conditions of negative factors on human health is retained. These trends are confirmed by the excess of the hygienic standards of pollutants in ambient air (up to 6.6 TLVc.e., by the substantial increase (up to 65.8 % of share of the centralized sources of water supply, water quality does not meet the hygienic standards due to the high level of non-standard samples of soil (more than 50 % on a number of sanitary-chemical and microbiological parameters in the territories of certain administrative districts. At the same time there is a tendency to a decrease in non-standard drinking water samples taken from the distribution network of centralized drinking water supply (from 4.36 % to 2.45 %. It was established that the primary morbidity have a number of positive trends to decrease, but exceeds the average indicators for individual classes and nosology, including the classes of "Respiratory diseases", "Diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue", "Neoplasms" and etc. by 4.1–68.3 %. Analysis of causality (about 50 significant biologically-based mathematical models were received on the system of "quality of habitat (a risk factor – health status (morbidity, mortality " showed that the impact of negative environmental factors probably shape up to 29.2 ‰ of additional cases and up to 0.056 ‰ of the additional deaths per year. The largest contribution to the formation of the probability of additional cases is made by the excess of morbidity by hygienic standards of air quality and soil, mortality and air quality. Risk factors are phenol, benzo a pyrene, nitrogen dioxide, suspended solids, ammonia, chlorine and its compounds, and sulfur dioxide, etc., coming from the atmospheric air, and cadmium


    Fedotova, I V; Mikhaylova, S A; Ashirova, S A


    In the article there are presented data on the evaluation of occupational risk on two types of modern production of polyurethane foam (PUF), one of which is a large-tonnage fast-growth production, the 2nd type is semidomestic industry being different in small volume of output products. An analysis and evaluation of occupational exposure to large-scale production was performed patient-specifically with the use of elaborated individual cards, where there was introduced information about occupational route, the level of harmful factors of the working environment in all the years of work, the duration of exposure. The research results allowed to establish that the occupational risk in representatives of the main professions in the large-scale production (operators and handlers) is referred to a class of working conditions 3.2, which corresponds to the risk categories--moderate (Important), and demonstrates the need for further improvement of the system of preventive measures. At the small production working conditions were characterized by the presence of a large number of manual operations and comply with Class 3.3--category of professional risk-high (Unbearable). To reduce the risk to the health of workers of this type of production it is necessary to develop documents, that will increase the responsibility of employers to ensure safe working conditions.

  17. An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hirt, Evelyn H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Coles, Garill A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bonebrake, Christopher A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ivans, William J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wootan, David W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mitchell, Mark R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)


    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic

  18. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.


    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  19. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter


    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  20. Residue behavior and risk assessment of imidacloprid applied on greenhouse-cultivated strawberries under different application conditions. (United States)

    Cang, Tao; Sun, Caixia; Zhao, Hua; Tang, Tao; Zhang, Changpeng; Yu, Ruixian; Wang, Xinquan; Wang, Qiang; Dai, Fen; Zhao, Xueping


    A risk assessment for imidacloprid applied on strawberries under different conditions was performed after residue determination using the quick, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe (QuEChERS) method. The application conditions were varied according to the applied dosage, addition of a plant oil or organosilicon surfactant, water volume, and sprayer type. The degradation dynamics of imidacloprid on strawberries followed first-order kinetics. At applied doses of 30-60 g a.i. ha-1, the half-lives of imidacloprid were 2.89-3.46, 1.98-3.65, and 2.57-2.77 days after application without a surfactant or with a plant oil or organosilicon surfactant, respectively. For water volumes of 112.5, 225, 450, 675, and 900 L ha-1, the half-lives of imidacloprid applied in the presence of the plant oil surfactant were 3.30, 7.70, 5.33, 7.70, and 6.30 days, respectively. The half-lives after application with a knapsack mist duster, electric sprayer, and manual sprayer were 2.16, 5.77, and 7.70 days, respectively. The health risk assessment revealed risk quotients less than 1 in all cases, indicating that the application of imidacloprid poses a low health risk to humans after a pre-harvest interval of 10 days under our application conditions. The risk assessment results can provide reference data for setting a reasonable maximum residue limit for imidacloprid on strawberries in China.

  1. Assessing risks from drought and heat stress in productive grasslands under present and future climatic conditions (United States)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Mosimann, Eric; Meisser, Marco; Deléglise, Claire


    Grasslands cover the majority of the world's agricultural area, provide the feedstock for animal production, contribute to the economy of farms, and deliver a variety of ecological and societal services. Assessing responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change, in particular climate-related risks, is therefore an important step toward identifying adaptation options necessary to secure grassland functioning and productivity. Of particular concern are risks in relation to drought and extreme temperatures, on the one hand because grasslands are very sensitive to water stress, on the other hand also because global warming is expected to increase the occurrence and intensity of these events in many agricultural areas of the world. In this contribution we review findings of ongoing experimental and modelling activities that aim at examining the implications of climate extremes and climate change for grassland vegetation dynamics and herbage productivity. Data collected at the Jura foot in western Switzerland indicate that water scarcity and associated anomalous temperatures slowed plant development in relation to both the summer drought of 2003 as well as the spring drought of 2011, with decline in annual yields of up to 40%. Further effects of drought found from the analysis of recent field trials explicitly designed to study the effects of different water management regimes are changes in the functional composition and nutritive value of grasslands. Similar responses are disclosed by simulations with a process based grassland ecosystem model that was originally developed for the simulation of mixed grass/clover swards. Simulations driven with historical weather records from the Swiss Plateau suggest that drought and extreme temperature could represent one of the main reasons for the observed yield variability in productive systems. Simulations with climate change scenarios further reveal important changes in ecosystem dynamics for the current century. The results

  2. Using conditional tree forests and life history traits to assess specific risks of stream degradation under multiple pressure scenario. (United States)

    Mondy, Cédric P; Usseglio-Polatera, Philippe


    The full accomplishment of the European Water Framework Directive objectives has required from EU members three successive steps: (i) the evaluation of their water body ecological status, (ii) the risk assessment of different anthropogenic pressure categories and (iii) the implementation of appropriate management and restoration programs. We aimed at designing an innovative retrospective ecological risk assessment (ERA) tool working for most of the French wadeable rivers in a context of multiple anthropogenic pressures (step ii). This tool, including conditional tree forest (CTF) models, was built on combinations of benthic macroinvertebrate trait-based metrics for each of sixteen anthropogenic pressure categories. For eleven pressure categories, CTF models have given good impairment risk assessment (i.e. AUC≥0.70), even at moderate risk level and in a multi-pressure context. The four other models have provided poorer but promising results (AUC=0.67±0.02). Identifying the potential weight of individual anthropogenic pressures that lead to biotic assemblage impairment in streams under multiple pressure scenario, is a key step for managers to implement appropriate stream restoration programs. Simultaneously considering the whole complexity of bio-ecological adaptations within biotic assemblages subjected to human pressures provides a functional diagnostic tool both (i) ecologically relevant and (ii) efficient for ERA. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk Assessment and Monitoring of Stored CO2 in Organic Rocks Under Non-Equilibrium Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malhotra, Vivak


    shale cores, which were pressurized with high pressure CO2, determine the fate of sequestered CO2 in these cores. Our results suggested that Illinois bituminous coal in its unperturbed state, i.e., when not pressurized with CO2, showed large variations in the mechanical properties. Modulus varied from 0.7 GPa to 3.4 GPa even though samples were extracted from a single large chunk of coal. We did not observe any glass transition for Illinois bituminous coal at - 100oC ≤ T ≤ 300oC, however, when the coal was pressurized with CO2 at ambient ≤ P ≤ 20.7 MPa, the viscosity of the coal decreased and inversely scaled with the CO2 pressure. The decrease in viscosity as a function of pressure could pose CO2 injection problems for coal as lower viscosity would allow the solid coal to flow to plug the fractures, fissures, and cleats. Our experiments also showed a very small fraction of CO2 was absorbed in coal; and when CO2 pressurized coals were exposed to atmospheric conditions, the loss of CO2 from coals was massive. Half of the sequestered gas from the coal cores was lost in less than 20 minutes. Our shockwave experiments on Illinois bituminous coal, New Albany shale (Illinois), Devonian shale (Ohio), and Utica shale (Ohio) presented clear evidence that the significant emission of the sequestered CO2 from these formations cannot be discounted during seismic activity, especially if caprock is compromised. It is argued that additional shockwave studies, both compressive and transverse, would be required for successfully mapping the risks associated with sequestering high pressure CO2 in coal and shale formations.

  4. Risk Assessment of Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning Strategies in Low-Load Homes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poerschke, Andrew [IBACOS, Inc., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)


    These simulations enabled IBACOS to identify which strategies work best for particular climate zones or house geometries and to propose solutions that homebuilders can implement to reduce the risk of occupant discomfort in individual rooms.

  5. Transformation and accumulation of PAH and bound residues in soil under extreme conditions - a risk assessment approach (United States)

    Eschenbach, Annette


    The degradation of PAH in contaminated soil does not proceed completely in the majority of cases. However microorganisms which are able to degrade PAH are present in PAH-contaminated soils normally. A total degradation of PAH in contaminated soils is often limited by a lack of bioavailability, which results from a lack of mass transfer. The analytical depletion of contaminants in soil is not only based on degradation processes but also on a fixation or immobilization of the xenobiotic substances as stronger adsorbed to or bound residues in the soil matrix. These bound residues were verified by using 14C-labelled PAH in different soil samples. To evaluate the long term fate of theses PAH-residues the stability and transformation of 14C-labelled non-extractable PAH-residues was investigated in detail under different extreme ecological and climate conditions such as biological stress, freezing and thawing cycles, and chemical worst case conditions. The transformation and remobilization of non-extractable PAH-residues was observed in long-time experiments and was very limited in general (Eschenbach et al. 2001). Only small amounts of non extractable residues were transformed and converted to CO2 and thereby detoxified. However the treatment with a complexing agent led to an increase of extractable 14C-activity. In a further set of experiments the long term risk of a groundwater contamination was assessed. Therefore the elution rate of 14C-PAH was investigated by a routinely usable column test system. It was found that the PAH elution was not solely controlled by desorption processes. The extractable PAH concentrations and elution rates were affected by the mineralization and formation of bound residues as well. For the assessment of the maximum PAH release rate the soil material was treated by extreme and worst case conditions as well. The impact of the elution of bidestillated water, of repeated freeze-thaw cycles and a simulation of acidic rain was investigated. The

  6. Risk Assessment of Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning Strategies in Low-Load Homes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poerschke, Andrew [IBACOS, Inc., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)


    "Modern, energy efficient homes conforming to the Zero Energy Ready Home standard face the challenge of meeting high customer expectations for comfort. Traditional heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) sizing and control strategies may be insufficient to adequately condition each zone due to unique load patterns in each room caused by a number of factors. These factors include solar heat gains, occupant-related gains, and gains associated with appliances and electronics. Because of shrinking shell loads, these intermittent factors are having an increasingly significant impact on the thermal load in each zone. Consequently, occupant comfort can be compromised. To evaluate the impact of climate and house geometry, as well as HVAC system and control strategies on comfort conditions, IBACOS analyzed the results of 99 TRNSYS multiple-zone simulations. The results of this analysis indicate that for simple-geometry and single-story plans, a single zone and thermostat can adequately condition the entire house. Demanding house geometry and houses with multiple stories require the consideration of multiple thermostats and multiple zones.

  7. An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åström, Helena Lisa Alexandra; Friis Hansen, P.; Garrè, Luca


    Urban flooding introduces significant risk to society. Non-stationarity leads to increased uncertainty and this is challenging to include in actual decision-making. The primary objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment and decision support framework for pluvial urban flood risk under...... terms expressed as expected annual damage. The network is dynamic in as much as it assesses risk at different points in time. The framework provides means for decision-makers to assess how different decisions on flood adaptation affect the risk now and in the future. The result from the ID was extended...... with a cost-benefit analysis defining the net benefits for the investment plans. We tested our framework in a case study where the risk for flooding was assessed on a railway track in Risskov, Aarhus. Drainage system improvements are planned for the area. Our study illustrates with the use of an ID how risk...

  8. Residue behavior and risk assessment of mixed formulation of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr in chieh-qua under field conditions. (United States)

    Huang, Jian Xiang; Liu, Cong Yun; Lu, Da Hai; Chen, Jia Jia; Deng, Yi Cai; Wang, Fu Hua


    A simple and rapid method based on high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) was developed for the simultaneous determination of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr residues in chieh-qua. Field trials were designed to investigate the dissipation and terminal residue behavior of the mixed formulation of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr in chieh-qua in Guangzhou and Nanning areas. Risk assessment was performed by calculating the risk quotient (RQ) values. The developed analytical method exhibited recoveries of 89.9-110.3% with relative standard deviations (RSDs) of 2.8-12.5% at the spiked levels of 0.01, 0.10, and 1.00 mg/kg. The limit of detection (LOD) was 0.003 mg/kg, and the limit of quantification (LOQ) was 0.01 mg/kg for both imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr. It was found that the half-lives of imidacloprid in chieh-qua under field conditions were 3.3 and 3.5 days in Guangzhou and Nanning at a dose of 180 g ai/ha, while the half-lives of chlorfenapyr were 3.3 and 2.6 days, respectively. The terminal residues of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr were from 0.01 to 0.21 mg/kg and from 0.01 to 0.46 mg/kg, respectively. Results of dietary exposure assessment showed that the RQ values were much lower than 1, indicating that the risk of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr applied in chieh-qua was negligible to human health under recommended dosage and good agricultural practices. The proposed study would provide guidance for safe and reasonable use of imidacloprid and chlorfenapyr in chieh-qua cultivation in China.

  9. Assessing predation risks for small fish in a large river ecosystem between contrasting habitats and turbidity conditions (United States)

    Dodrill, Michael J.; Yard, Mike; Pine, William E.


    This study examined predation risk for juvenile native fish between two riverine shoreline habitats, backwater and debris fan, across three discrete turbidity levels (low, intermediate, high) to understand environmental risks associated with habitat use in a section of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, AZ. Inferences are particularly important to juvenile native fish, including the federally endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. This species uses a variety of habitats including backwaters which are often considered important rearing areas. Densities of two likely predators, adult rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and adult humpback chub, were estimated between habitats using binomial mixture models to examine whether higher predator density was associated with patterns of predation risk. Tethering experiments were used to quantify relative predation risk between habitats and turbidity conditions. Under low and intermediate turbidity conditions, debris fan habitat showed higher relative predation risk compared to backwaters. In both habitats the highest predation risk was observed during intermediate turbidity conditions. Density of likely predators did not significantly differ between these habitats. This information can help managers in Grand Canyon weigh flow policy options designed to increase backwater availability or extant turbidity conditions.

  10. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment (United States)

    ... Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without warning, and two- ... and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool is supported in part ...

  11. Assessment of the risk of failure of high voltage substations due to environmental conditions and pollution on insulators. (United States)

    Castillo Sierra, Rafael; Oviedo-Trespalacios, Oscar; Candelo, John E; Soto, Jose D


    Pollution on electrical insulators is one of the greatest causes of failure of substations subjected to high levels of salinity and environmental pollution. Considering leakage current as the main indicator of pollution on insulators, this paper focuses on establishing the effect of the environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators and determining the significant change in the magnitude of the pollution on the insulators during dry and humid periods. Hierarchical segmentation analysis was used to establish the effect of environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators. The Kruskal-Wallis test was utilized to determine the significant changes in the magnitude of the pollution due to climate periods. An important result was the discovery that leakage current was more common on insulators during dry periods than humid ones. There was also a higher risk of failure due to pollution during dry periods. During the humid period, various temperatures and wind directions produced a small change in the risk of failure. As a technical result, operators of electrical substations can now identify the cause of an increase in risk of failure due to pollution in the area. The research provides a contribution towards the behaviour of the leakage current under conditions similar to those of the Colombian Caribbean coast and how they affect the risk of failure of the substation due to pollution.

  12. Hepatitis Risk Assessment (United States)

    ... visit this page: About . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. ... at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed by the CDC and get a personalized ...

  13. Generalized Fragility Relationships with Local Site Conditions for Probabilistic Performance-based Seismic Risk Assessment of Bridge Inventories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sivathayalan S.


    Full Text Available The current practice of detailed seismic risk assessment cannot be easily applied to all the bridges in a large transportation networks due to limited resources. This paper presents a new approach for seismic risk assessment of large bridge inventories in a city or national bridge network based on the framework of probabilistic performance based seismic risk assessment. To account for the influences of local site effects, a procedure to generate site-specific hazard curves that includes seismic hazard microzonation information has been developed for seismic risk assessment of bridge inventories. Simulated ground motions compatible with the site specific seismic hazard are used as input excitations in nonlinear time history analysis of representative bridges for calibration. A normalizing procedure to obtain generalized fragility relationships in terms of structural characteristic parameters of bridge span and size and longitudinal and transverse reinforcement ratios is presented. The seismic risk of bridges in a large inventory can then be easily evaluated using the normalized fragility relationships without the requirement of carrying out detailed nonlinear time history analysis.

  14. The importance of registration of sexual orientation and recognition of indicator conditions for an adequate HIV risk-assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joore, Ivo K.; Geerlings, Suzanne E.; Brinkman, Kees; van Bergen, Jan E. A. M.; Prins, Jan M.


    HIV testing among risk groups and guided by HIV indicator conditions (IC) is widely recommended by European guidelines. In this study we investigated how these strategies are used by general practitioners (GP) and in other healthcare settings. The objectives of our study were to describe: 1) the

  15. Microbial Risk Assessment (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.


    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  16. Degradation of three fungicides following application on strawberry and a risk assessment of their toxicity under greenhouse conditions. (United States)

    Sun, Caixia; Cang, Tao; Wang, Zhiwei; Wang, Xinquan; Yu, Ruixian; Wang, Qiang; Zhao, Xueping


    The health risk to humans of pesticide application on minor crops, such as strawberry, requires quantification. Here, the dissipation and residual levels of three fungicides (pyraclostrobin, myclobutanil, and difenoconazole) were studied for strawberry under greenhouse conditions using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)-tandem mass spectrometry after Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged, and Safe extraction. This method was validated using blank samples, with all mean recoveries of these three fungicides exceeding 80%. The residues of all three fungicides dissipated following first-order kinetics. The half-lives of pyraclostrobin, myclobutanil, and difenoconazole were 1.69, 3.30, and 3.65 days following one time application and 1.73, 5.78, and 6.30 days following two times applications, respectively. Fungicide residue was determined by comparing the estimated daily intake of the three fungicides against the acceptable daily intake. The results indicate that the potential health risk of the three fungicides was not significant in strawberry when following good agricultural practices (GAP) under greenhouse conditions.

  17. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese


    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  18. The use of check valve performance data to support new concepts (probabilistic risk assessment, condition monitoring) for check valve program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, K.A.; Gower, D.


    The concept of developing an integrated check valve database based on the Nuclear Power Reliability Data System (NPRDS) data was presented at the last Symposium. The Nuclear Industry Check Valve Group (NIC), working in cooperation with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), has completed an operational database of check valve performance from 1984 to the present. NIC has committed to the nuclear industry to periodically update the data and maintain this information accessible. As the new concepts of probabilistic risk analysis and condition monitoring are integrated into the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Code, a critical element will be performance data. From check valve performance data, feasible failure modes and rates can be established. When a failure rate or frequency of failures can be established based on a significant enough population (sampling), a more solid foundation for focusing resources and determining appropriate frequencies and testing can be determined. The presentation will give the updated status of the NIC Check Valve Performance Database covering (1) methodology used to combine the original ORNL data; (2) process/controls established for continuing update and refinement of the data; (3) discussion of how this data is being utilized by (a) OM-22 for condition monitoring, and (b) risk-based inservice testing work of Westinghouse Owners` Group; and (4) results/trends of data evaluations. At the 1994 Symposium, ORNL provided an update as of 1991 to their original work of 1984 -1990 which they had performed to characterize check valve degradations and failures in the nuclear industry. These characterizations will be updated to 1995 and additional reviews provided to give insight into the current condition and trends of check valve performance.

  19. GM Risk Assessment (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  20. Toxicity risk assessment of mercury, DDT and arsenic legacy pollution in sediments: A triad approach under low concentration conditions. (United States)

    Marziali, L; Rosignoli, F; Drago, A; Pascariello, S; Valsecchi, L; Rossaro, B; Guzzella, L


    The determination of sediment toxicity is challenging due to site-specific factors affecting pollutants distribution and bioavailability, especially when contamination levels are close to expected non-effect concentrations. Different lines of evidence and sensitive tools are necessary for a proper toxicity risk assessment. We examined the case study of the Toce River (Northern Italy), where past industrial activities determined Hg, DDT and As enrichment in sediments. A triad approach comprising chemical, ecotoxicological and ecological analyses (benthic invertebrates) was carried out for risk assessment of residual contamination in river sediments. A "blank" site upstream from the industrial site was selected to compare the other sites downstream. Sediment, water and benthic invertebrate samplings were carried out following standard protocols. Results emphasized that despite the emissions of the industrial site ceased about 20years ago, sediments in the downstream section of the river remain contaminated by Hg, DDT and As with concentrations exceeding Threshold Effect Concentrations. A chronic whole-sediment test with Chironomus riparius showed decreased development rate and a lower number of eggs per mass in the contaminated sediments. Benthic community was analyzed with the calculation of integrated (STAR_ICMi) and stressor-specific metrics (SPEARpesticide and mean sensitivity to Hg), but no significant differences were found between upstream and downstream sites. On the other hand, multivariate analysis (partial Redundancy Analysis and variation partitioning) emphasized a slight impact on invertebrate community, accounting for 5% variation in taxa composition. Results show that legacy contaminants in sediments, even at low concentrations, may be bioavailable and possibly toxic for benthic invertebrates. At low concentration levels, sensitive and site-specific tools need to be developed for a proper risk analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  1. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance (United States)

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  2. Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas: a multivariate statistical approach based on Copula functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Wahl


    Full Text Available This paper presents an advanced approach to statistically analyse storm surge events. In former studies the highest water level during a storm surge event usually was the only parameter that was used for the statistical assessment. This is not always sufficient, especially when statistically analysing storm surge scenarios for event-based risk analyses. Here, Archimedean Copula functions are applied and allow for the consideration of further important parameters in addition to the highest storm surge water levels. First, a bivariate model is presented and used to estimate exceedance probabilities of storm surges (for two tide gauges in the German Bight by jointly analysing the important storm surge parameters "highest turning point" and "intensity". Second, another dimension is added and a trivariate fully nested Archimedean Copula model is applied to additionally incorporate the significant wave height as an important wave parameter. With the presented methodology, reliable and realistic exceedance probabilities are derived and can be considered (among others for integrated flood risk analyses contributing to improve the overall results. It is highlighted that the concept of Copulas represents a promising alternative for facing multivariate problems in coastal engineering.

  3. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)


    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  4. Risk Assessment Overview (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.


    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  5. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)


    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  6. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik


      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  7. Effect of finite element model loading condition on fracture risk assessment in men and women: the AGES-Reykjavik study. (United States)

    Keyak, J H; Sigurdsson, S; Karlsdottir, G S; Oskarsdottir, D; Sigmarsdottir, A; Kornak, J; Harris, T B; Sigurdsson, G; Jonsson, B Y; Siggeirsdottir, K; Eiriksdottir, G; Gudnason, V; Lang, T F


    Proximal femoral (hip) strength computed by subject-specific CT scan-based finite element (FE) models has been explored as an improved measure for identifying subjects at risk of hip fracture. However, to our knowledge, no published study has reported the effect of loading condition on the association between incident hip fracture and hip strength. In the present study, we performed a nested age- and sex-matched case-control study in the Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES) Reykjavik cohort. Baseline (pre-fracture) quantitative CT (QCT) scans of 5500 older male and female subjects were obtained. During 4-7years follow-up, 51 men and 77 women sustained hip fractures. Ninety-seven men and 152 women were randomly selected as controls from a pool of age- and sex-matched subjects. From the QCT data, FE models employing nonlinear material properties computed FE-strength of the left hip of each subject in loading from a fall onto the posterolateral (FPL), posterior (FP) and lateral (FL) aspects of the greater trochanter (patent pending). For comparison, FE strength in stance loading (FStance) and total femur areal bone mineral density (aBMD) were also computed. For all loading conditions, the reductions in strength associated with fracture in men were more than twice those in women (p≤0.01). For fall loading specifically, posterolateral loading in men and posterior loading in women were most strongly associated with incident hip fracture. After adjusting for aBMD, the association between FP and fracture in women fell short of statistical significance (p=0.08), indicating that FE strength provides little advantage over aBMD for identifying female hip fracture subjects. However, in men, after controlling for aBMD, FPL was 424N (11%) less in subjects with fractures than in controls (p=0.003). Thus, in men, FE models of posterolateral loading include information about incident hip fracture beyond that in aBMD. © 2013.

  8. Assessment of microbial risk factors and impact of meteorological conditions during production of baby spinach in the Southeast of Spain. (United States)

    Castro-Ibáñez, I; Gil, M I; Tudela, J A; Ivanek, R; Allende, A


    There is a timely need to evaluate the effect agricultural factors and meteorological conditions on fresh produce contamination. This study evaluated those risk factors and described, for the first time, the distribution of indicator microorganisms (Escherichia coli, Enterococcus, coliforms, and Enterobacteriaceae) and the prevalence of foodborne pathogens (Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli, Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella spp.) in baby spinach grown in the Southeast of Spain. A longitudinal study was conducted on three farms (2011-2013). Results obtained for E. coli highlighted soil and irrigation water as important factors affecting the microbial safety of baby spinach. Significant differences in the proportion of E. coli positive samples were found between treated (46.1%) and untreated (100%) irrigation water. However, the microbial quality of irrigation water didn't affect E. coli prevalence in produce. All E. coli positive spinach samples were detected at the highest observed temperature range suggesting that ambient temperature affects the probability and extent of spinach contamination. Salmonella spp. was detected by RT-PCR in manure, soil, irrigation water and baby spinach but only two of them (manure and irrigation water) were confirmed by isolation in culture media. Salmonella RT-PCR positive samples showed higher levels of E. coli than Salmonella negative samples. This preliminary finding supports recent identification of E. coli as a suitable parameter for the hygiene criterion at the primary production of leafy greens. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Operational risk assessment. (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L


    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  10. Risk assessment [Chapter 9 (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens


    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  11. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita


    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  12. Value of laboratory tests in employer-sponsored health risk assessments for newly identifying health conditions: analysis of 52,270 participants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harvey W Kaufman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Employer-sponsored health risk assessments (HRA may include laboratory tests to provide evidence of disease and disease risks for common medical conditions. We evaluated the ability of HRA-laboratory testing to provide new disease-risk information to participants. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of HRA-laboratory results for participating adult employees and their eligible spouses or their domestic partners, focusing on three common health conditions: hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease. HRA with laboratory results of 52,270 first-time participants were analyzed. Nearly all participants had access to health insurance coverage. Twenty-four percent (12,392 self-reported one or more of these medical conditions: 21.1% (11,017 self-identified as having hyperlipidemia, 4.7% (2,479 self-identified as having diabetes, and 0.7% (352 self-identified as having chronic kidney disease. Overall, 36% (n = 18,540 of participants had laboratory evidence of at least one medical condition newly identified: 30.7% (16,032 had laboratory evidence of hyperlipidemia identified, 1.9% (984 had laboratory evidence of diabetes identified, and 5.5% (2,866 had laboratory evidence of chronic kidney disease identified. Of all participants with evidence of hyperlipidemia 59% (16,030 of 27,047, were newly identified through the HRA. Among those with evidence of diabetes 28% (984 of 3,463 were newly identified. The highest rate of newly identified disease risk was for chronic kidney disease: 89% (2,866 of 3,218 of participants with evidence of this condition had not self-reported it. Men (39% were more likely than women (33% to have at least one newly identified condition (p<0.0001. Among men, lower levels of educational achievement were associated with modestly higher rates of newly identified disease risk (p<0.0001; the association with educational achievement among women was unclear. Even among

  13. Public Risk Assessment Program (United States)

    Mendeck, Gavin


    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  14. New in vitro dermal absorption database and the prediction of dermal absorption under finite conditions for risk assessment purposes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.E.; Burgsteden, J.A. van; Freidig, A.P.; Maas, W.J.M.; Sandt, J.J.M. van de


    Most QSARs for dermal absorption predict the permeability coefficient, Kp, of a molecule, which is valid for infinite dose conditions. In practice, dermal exposure mostly occurs under finite dose conditions. Therefore, a simple model to predict finite dose dermal absorption from infinite

  15. New in vitro dermal absorption database and the prediction of dermal absorption under finite conditions for risk assessment purposes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.E.; Burgsteden, J.A. van; Freidig, A.P.; Maas, W.J.; Sandt, J.J. van de


    Most QSARs for dermal absorption predict the permeability coefficient, K(p), of a molecule, which is valid for infinite dose conditions. In practice, dermal exposure mostly occurs under finite dose conditions. Therefore, a simple model to predict finite dose dermal absorption from infinite dose data

  16. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.


    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  17. Methods of Assessing the Risks Associated with Lack of Water Supplies, Water Safety Plan for National Conditions (United States)

    Rybka, Sławomir


    Article shows the desire to obtain risk-control options, and bringing it to a tolerable level. Subjects were ways of managing and dealing with risk. Methods of dealing with aspects of the protection of industrial buildings and high-risk critical infrastructure vulnerability analysis methodology to the loss of integrity. Also a set method to deal with aspects of the protection of industrial buildings and high-risk critical infrastructure that is the analysis of susceptibility to loss of integrity. The article also presents the basic principles of water safety plan based on national and foreign research publications. In the next part of article WSP methodology was concluded, outlining the actions which use significantly reduces the risk of threats that could lead to supply of contaminated tap water or total interruption of its supply. In further considerations the most important steps in creating WSP were presented. In the final section the principle of modular computer system operation that is used for network management for urban water supply in Rzeszow was presented.

  18. Preconception risk assessment of infertile couples

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nekuei, Nafisehsadat; Kazemi, Ashraf; Ehsanpur, Soheila; Beigi, Nastaran Mohammad Ali


    With regard to the importance of preconception conditions in maternal health and fertility, preconception risk assessment makes treatment trends and pregnancy outcome more successful among infertile couples...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Rosidi


    Full Text Available A seismic risk assessment procedure for earth embankments and levees is presented. The procedure consists of three major elements: (1 probability of ground motion at the site, (2 probability of levee failure given a level of ground motion has occurred and (3 expected loss resulting from the failure. This paper discusses the first two elements of the risk assessment. The third element, which includes economic losses and human casualty, will not be presented herein. The ground motions for risk assessment are developed using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A two-dimensional finite element analysis is performed to estimate the dynamic responses of levee, and the probability of levee failure is calculated using the levee fragility curve. The overall objective of the assessment is to develop an analytical tool for assessing the failure risk and the effectiveness of various levee strengthening alternatives for risk reduction. An example of the procedure, as it applies to a levee built along the perimeter of an island for flood protection and water storage, is presented. Variations in earthquake ground motion and soil and water conditions at the site are incorporated in the risk assessment. The effects of liquefaction in the foundation soils are also considered.

  20. Assessment of fracture risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail:; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)


    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  1. Designing cellular manufacturing system under risk conditions ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thus we propose a mixed integer programming approach to decision making and incorporate subcontracting risk . To control the risk of sub-contracting (cost) , the two popular percentile measures of risk are applied: value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk. This model is capable of optimizing production cost of parts and ...

  2. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla


    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  3. Conceptual modeling for identification of worst case conditions in environmental risk assessment of nanomaterials using nZVI and C60 as case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Sørensen, Peter B.


    studies which use engineered nanoparticles, namely nZVI in soil and groundwater remediation and C60 in an engine oil lubricant. Results generated from this analysis may ultimately help prioritize research areas for environmental risk assessments of nZVI and C60 in these applications as well as demonstrate...... response mechanisms such as reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and cell membrane damage or disruption, iv) surface properties of nZVI and C60, and v) acute exposure tolerance of organisms. Additional estimates of worst-case conditions for C60 also include the physical location of C60...... of nZVI and C60 and ecotoxicological response end-points and response mechanisms including ROS production and cell membrane damage, full nanomaterial characterization taking into account detailed information on nanomaterial surface properties, and investigations of dose–response relationships...

  4. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing. (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L


    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  5. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  6. Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance (United States)

    Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.


    Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

  7. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide]. (United States)

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J


    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2Health effect level×2exposure ratio×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions and

  8. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ... (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  9. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  10. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (United States)

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  11. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment (United States)

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  12. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G


    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  13. Advances in stalking risk assessment. (United States)

    McEwan, Troy E; Pathé, Michele; Ogloff, James R P


    Over the past 15 years, forensic mental health has become more concerned with the concepts of violence prevention, management, and treatment. The development of specialist tools to aid in the assessment of a range of risks reflects this concern. This article explores contemporary thinking on violence risk assessment and how this knowledge can be applied to the relatively newer field of stalking risk assessment. The role of risk state and risk status are discussed, in addition to the way that standard structured professional judgment procedures need to be adapted to reflect the variety of risks present in stalking situations. The authors go on to describe the development and format of the Stalking Risk Profile, a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for assessing risk in stalkers. Suggestions are made for future research to enhance knowledge and improve practice in the field of stalking risk assessment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač


    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  15. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova


    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  17. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants (United States)

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  18. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.


    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  19. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley


    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  20. Evaluation of FOCUS surface water pesticide concentration predictions and risk assessment of field-measured pesticide mixtures-a crop-based approach under Mediterranean conditions. (United States)

    Pereira, Ana Santos; Daam, Michiel A; Cerejeira, Maria José


    FOCUS models are used in the European regulatory risk assessment (RA) to predict individual pesticide concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters. The scenarios used in higher tier FOCUS simulations were mainly based on Central/North European, and work is needed to underpin the validity of simulated exposure profiles for Mediterranean agroecosystems. In addition, the RA of chemicals are traditionally evaluated on the basis of single substances although freshwater life is generally exposed to a multitude of pesticides. In the present study, we monitored 19 pesticides in surface waters of five locations in the Portuguese 'Lezíria do Tejo' agricultural area. FOCUS step 3 simulations were performed for the South European scenarios to estimate predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). We verified that 44% of the PECs underestimated the measured environmental concentrations (MEC) of the pesticides, showing a non-compliance with the field data. Risk was assessed by comparing the environmental quality standards (EQS) and regulatory acceptable concentrations with their respective MECs. Risk of mixtures was demonstrated in 100% of the samples with insecticides accounting for 60% of the total risk identified. The overall link between the RA and the actual situation in the field must be considerably strengthened, and field studies on pesticide exposure and effects should be carried out to assist the improvement of predictive approaches used for regulatory purposes.

  1. [Forensic assessment of violence risk]. (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L


    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk of impaired condition of watersheds containing National Forest lands (United States)

    Thomas C Brown; Pamela Froemke


    We assessed the risk of impaired condition of the nearly 3700 5th-level watersheds in the contiguous 48 states containing the national forests and grasslands that make up the U.S. Forest Service's National Forest System (NFS). The assessment was based on readily available, relatively consistent nationwide data sets for a series of indicators representing watershed...

  3. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  4. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman


    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  5. Wind conditions and resource assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik; Troen, Ib


    The development of wind power as a competitive energy source requires resource assessment of increasing accuracy and detail (including not only the long-term ‘raw’ wind resource, but also turbulence, shear, and extremes), and in areas of increasing complexity. This in turn requires the use of the...

  6. Condition assessment of nonlinear processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hively, Lee M. (Philadelphia, TN); Gailey, Paul C. (Athens, OH); Protopopescu, Vladimir A. (Knoxville, TN)


    There is presented a reliable technique for measuring condition change in nonlinear data such as brain waves. The nonlinear data is filtered and discretized into windowed data sets. The system dynamics within each data set is represented by a sequence of connected phase-space points, and for each data set a distribution function is derived. New metrics are introduced that evaluate the distance between distribution functions. The metrics are properly renormalized to provide robust and sensitive relative measures of condition change. As an example, these measures can be used on EEG data, to provide timely discrimination between normal, preseizure, seizure, and post-seizure states in epileptic patients. Apparatus utilizing hardware or software to perform the method and provide an indicative output is also disclosed.

  7. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given......, and also assist industry in their ambition to design innovative yet safe foods for consumers....

  8. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment (United States)

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  9. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla


    and to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be substantial enough...... to be a risk. A hazard does not necessarily constitute a risk, as efforts can be done to minimize risk by reducing the exposure. Thus, the relationship between hazard and risk must be treated cautiously. Fora robust risk assessment good data on exposure to the substance is needed and exposure data for other...... similarly acting substances are needed for assessing the risk for mixture effects. Such data may, however, often be absent. Toxicological potency, i.e. the lowest dose found to cause adverse effects, has been proposed as one of the key characteristics when evaluating safety of a substance. However, this may...

  10. Risk-Assessment Computer Program (United States)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.


    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  11. Could a continuous measure of individual transmissible risk be useful in clinical assessment of substance use disorder? Findings from the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. (United States)

    Ridenour, Ty A; Kirisci, Levent; Tarter, Ralph E; Vanyukov, Michael M


    Toward meeting the need for a measure of individual differences in substance use disorder (SUD) liability that is grounded in the multifactorial model of SUD transmission, this investigation tested to what degree transmissible SUD risk is better measured using the continuous Transmissible Liability Index (TLI) (young adult version) compared to alternative contemporary clinical methods. Data from 9535 18- to 30-year-olds in the 2001-2002 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, a U.S. representative sample, were used to compute TLI scores and test hypotheses. Other variables were SUDs of each DSM-IV drug class, clinical predictors of SUD treatment outcomes, treatment seeking and usage, age of onset of SUDs and substance use (SU), and eligibility for SUD clinical trials. TLI scores account for variation in SUD risk over and above parental lifetime SUD, conduct and antisocial personality disorder criteria and frequency of SU. SUD risk increases two- to four-fold per standard deviation increment in TLI scores. The TLI is associated with SUD treatment seeking and usage, younger age of onset of SU and SUD, and exclusion from traditional clinical trials of SUD treatment. The TLI can identify persons with high versus low transmissible SUD risk, worse prognosis of SUD recovery and to whom extant SUD clinical trials results may not generalize. Recreating TLI scores in extant datasets facilitates etiology and applied research on the full range of transmissible SUD risk in development, treatment and recovery without obtaining new samples. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Operating Strategy for Local-Area Energy Systems Integration Considering Uncertainty of Supply-Side and Demand-Side under Conditional Value-At-Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaqi Shi


    Full Text Available To alleviate environmental pollution and improve the energy usage efficiency of terminals, energy systems integration (ESI has become an important paradigm in the energy structure evolution. Power, gas and heat systems are becoming tightly interlinked with each other in ESI. The dispatching strategy of local-area ESI has significant impact on its operation. In this paper, a local-area ESI operational scheduling model based on conditional value-at-risk (CVaR is proposed to minimize expected operational cost, which considers the uncertainty of energy supply-side and demand-side as well as multi-energy network constraints, including electrical network, thermal network and gas network. The risk cost is analyzed comprehensively under the condition of under- or overestimated cost. On this basis, a hybrid method combining particle swarm optimization with interior point algorithm is executed to compute the optimal solutions of two-stage multi-period mixed-integer convex model. Finally, a case study is performed on ESI to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  13. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung-Hee Choi


    Full Text Available Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

  14. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review (United States)

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan


    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859


    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  16. Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard


    In this article, I study the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. I show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion...... of expected business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve forecast performance relative to models using information derived from the current term structure or macroeconomic variables. The results are confirmed in a real-time out-of-sample exercise, where the predictive accuracy of the models...... is evaluated both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market....

  17. Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard

    This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected...... business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve forecast performance relative to models using information derived from the current term structure or macroeconomic variables. The results are confirmed in a real-time out-of-sample exercise, where the predictive accuracy of the models...... is evaluated both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market....

  18. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Longstreth, J.D.


    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  19. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.


    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  20. Options for operational risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dover, S.A.


    Risk assessment is a set of analytical tools that can be used to clarify possible outcomes of decisions where two different courses of action are indicated or different values are in conflict. These conflicts often arise in the management of any production or support facility. This paper outlines the options for performing risk assessments of any scope and the parameters that determine their effectiveness. It highlights the relative costs of each option, useful information developed, and limitations of the information. The paper concludes with the types of decisions that are routinely made in an operating facility and could benefit from the information generated in a risk assessment.

  1. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the life...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  2. Risk assessment of manual handling operations at work with the key indicator method (KIM-MHO) - determination of criterion validity regarding the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms and clinical conditions within a cross-sectional study. (United States)

    Klussmann, Andre; Liebers, Falk; Gebhardt, Hansjürgen; Rieger, Monika A; Latza, Ute; Steinberg, Ulf


    Manual handling operations (MHO) are known to be risk factors for work-related upper limb disorders (WRULDs), e.g. symptoms and conditions such as carpal tunnel syndrome. To estimate the risk of WRULDs, a Key Indicator Method (KIM) for the risk assessment of MHO was developed. The method was validated in regard to different criteria, including face validity, criterion validity, reliability and further aspects concerning utility. This paper describes the KIM-MHO and criterion validity of this method with reference to prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). A cross-sectional sample of 643 employees exposed to MHO was compared to a reference group of 804 unexposed subjects predominantly working at visual display terminals. The Nordic Questionnaire and a standardized clinical examination were used to obtain the 7-day and 12-months prevalence of symptoms and clinical conditions of the musculoskeletal system. Job specific exposure levels to MHO were assessed by ergonomists using the KIM-MHO. The resulting risk scores were categorized into risk categories 1 - low risk (reference group), 2 - increased risk, 3 - highly increased risk, and 4 - high risk. Log-linear Poisson regression models were applied to obtain adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) with 95%-confidence intervals. The 7-day prevalence of symptoms for subjects in risk category 3 compared to risk category 1 was significant for the regions shoulder [women (w): PR 1.8 (1.2-2.7), men (m): PR 2.3 (1.2-4.4)], elbow [w: PR 3.3 (1.5-7.2), m: PR 2.4 (0.8-7.3)], and hand/wrist [w: PR 3.0 (1.7-5.3), m: PR 5.5 (2.7-11.3)]. The 7-day prevalence of symptoms for risk category 4 was also significant for the regions shoulder [w: PR 1.9 (1.3-2.8), m: PR 1.9 (1.3-2.7)], elbow [w: PR 4.5 (2.3-8.7), m: PR 3.3 (2.1-5.4)], and hand/wrist [w: PR 4.2 (2.6-6.9), m: PR 5.5 (3.5-8.5)]. The 12-months prevalence in these joint regions show comparable increases in the risk categories 3 and 4. The KIM-MHO is valid in regard to criterion

  3. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle


    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  4. [Working abroad: risk assessment and immunization]. (United States)

    Bianco, P; Anzelmo, V


    The workers travelling abroad by country of origin to carry on the job puts at risk not present in the country of origin, which overlap those related to the job profile. These risks are related to the trip, the geographic area of destination, the climate, the presence of vector, the socio-economic variables, the hygienic conditions of the host country. The risk assessment for workers abroad is complex and requires multidisciplinary inputs. Correctly performed, the risk assessment identifies the parameters needed to develop appropriate preventive strategies. The assessment of biological risk related to the geographic areas identifies immunization programs that prevent serious infectious diseases. The occupational physician must establish health surveillance programs in which the vaccination schemes should be related to geographical areas. Training and information company programs to complete protection through hygienic measures.

  5. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton


    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  6. Forecasting Investment Risks in Conditions of Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrenko Elena A.


    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the topical problem of evaluation and forecasting risks of investment activity of enterprises in conditions of uncertainty. Generalizing the researches on qualitative and quantitative methods for evaluating investment risks has helped to reveal certain shortcomings of the proposed approaches, to note in most of the publications there are no results as to any practical application, and to allocate promising directions. On the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets, a model of forecasting the expected risk has been proposed, making use of the Gauss membership function, which has certain advantages over the multi-angular membership functions. Dependences of investment risk from the parameters characterizing the investment project have been obtained. Using the formulas obtained, the total risk of investing in innovation project depending on the boundary conditions has been defined. As the researched target, index of profitability has been selected. The model provides the potential investors and developers with forecasting possible scenarios of investment process to make informed managerial decisions about the appropriateness of introduction and implementation of a project.

  7. Dissipation, residues and risk assessment of spirotetramat and its four metabolites in citrus and soil under field conditions by LC-MS/MS. (United States)

    Zhang, Qingtao; Chen, Yuling; Wang, Shouyi; Yu, Yurong; Lu, Ping; Hu, Deyu; Yang, Zaihui


    A modified Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe (QuEChERS) method for the simultaneous determination of spirotetramat and its four metabolite residues in citrus, peel, pulp and soil was developed and validated by liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The samples were extracted with acetonitrile (1%, glacial acetic acid, v/v) and purified using primary secondary amine and octadecylsilane. The limit of detection was 0.01-0.13 mg/kg, whereas that of quantification was 0.02-0.40 mg/kg for spirotetramat and its metabolites. The average recoveries of spirotetramat, spirotetramat-enol, spirotetramat-mono-hydroxy, spirotetramat-enol-glucoside and spirotetramat-ketohydroxy in all matrices were 73.33-107.91%, 75.93-114.85%, 76.44-100.78%, 71.46-103.19% and 73.08-105.27%, respectively, with relative standard deviations citrus and soil followed first-order kinetics, with half-lives of 2.3-8.5 days in the three sampling locations. The terminal residues of spirotetramat in four matrices at the three locations were measured below the 1.0 mg/kg maximum residue limit set by China, and residues were found to be concentrated on the peel. The risk assessment of citrus was evaluated using risk quotients. The risk quotient values were found to be significantly citrus. These results could provide guidance for the safe and proper application of spirotetramat in citrus in China. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)


    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  9. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla


    A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  10. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard


    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  11. The risk assessment information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.


    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at

  12. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (United States)

    ... know before using this tool: The Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool was designed for use by doctors and other health providers with their patients. If you are not a health ... your personal risk of colorectal cancer. (Colorectal cancer is another way ...

  13. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  14. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N


    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  15. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten


    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models....... enables the relative importance of the different factors (i.e. degree of climate change, assets value, discount rate etc.) to be determined, thus influencing the overall output of the assessment.......Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...

  16. Preconception risk assessment of infertile couples. (United States)

    Nekuei, Nafisehsadat; Kazemi, Ashraf; Ehsanpur, Soheila; Beigi, Nastaran Mohammad Ali


    With regard to the importance of preconception conditions in maternal health and fertility, preconception risk assessment makes treatment trends and pregnancy outcome more successful among infertile couples. This study has tried to investigate preconception risk assessment in infertile couples. This is a descriptive analytical survey conducted on 268 subjects, selected by convenient sampling, referring to Isfahan infertility centers (Iran). The data were collected by questionnaires through interview and clients' medical records. Pre-pregnancy risk assessment including history taking (personal, familial, medical, medications, menstruation, and pregnancy), exams (physical, genital, and vital signs), and routine test requests (routine, cervix, infections, and biochemical tests) was performed in the present study. The results showed that the lowest percentage of taking a complete history was for personal history (0.4%) and the highest was for history of menstruation (100%). The lowest percentage of complete exam was for physical exam (3.4%) and the highest for genital exam (100%). With regard to laboratory assessment, the highest percentage was for routine tests (36.6%) and the lowest was for infection tests (0.4%). Based o the results of the present study, most of the risk assessment components are poorly assessed in infertile couples. With regard to the importance of infertility treatment, spending high costs and time on that, and existence of high-risk individuals as well as treatment failures, health providers should essentially pay special attention to preconception risk assessment in infertile couples in order to enhance the chance of success and promote treatment outcome.

  17. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment (United States)


    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  18. A Methodology for Modeling Nuclear Power Plant Passive Component Aging in Probabilistic Risk Assessment under the Impact of Operating Conditions, Surveillance and Maintenance Activities (United States)

    Guler Yigitoglu, Askin

    In the context of long operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) (i.e., 60-80 years, and beyond), investigation of the aging of passive systems, structures and components (SSCs) is important to assess safety margins and to decide on reactor life extension as indicated within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. In the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology, evaluating the potential significance of aging of passive SSCs on plant risk is challenging. Although passive SSC failure rates can be added as initiating event frequencies or basic event failure rates in the traditional event-tree/fault-tree methodology, these failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data which means that the true state of a specific plant is not reflected in a realistic manner on aging effects. Dynamic PRA methodologies have gained attention recently due to their capability to account for the plant state and thus address the difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics-based models (and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems). Physics-based models can capture the impact of complex aging processes (e.g., fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, flow-accelerated corrosion, etc.) on SSCs and can be utilized to estimate passive SSC failure rates using realistic NPP data from reactor simulation, as well as considering effects of surveillance and maintenance activities. The objectives of this dissertation are twofold: The development of a methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive SSC into a reactor simulation environment to provide a framework for evaluation of their risk contribution in both the dynamic and traditional PRA; and the demonstration of the methodology through its application to pressurizer surge line pipe weld and steam generator tubes in commercial nuclear power plants. In the proposed methodology, a

  19. Chronic medical conditions and risk of sepsis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry E Wang

    Full Text Available We sought to determine the associations between baseline chronic medical conditions and future risk of sepsis.Longitudinal cohort study using the 30,239 community-dwelling participants of the REGARDS cohort. We determined associations between baseline chronic medical conditions and incident sepsis episodes, defined as hospitalization for an infection with the presence of infection plus two or more systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria.Over the mean observation time of 4.6 years (February 5, 2003 through October 14, 2011, there were 975 incident cases of sepsis. Incident sepsis episodes were associated with older age (p<0.001, white race (HR 1.39; 95% CI: 1.22-1.59, lower education (p<0.001 and income (p<0.001, tobacco use (p<0.001, and alcohol use (p = 0.02. Incident sepsis episodes were associated with baseline chronic lung disease (adjusted HR 2.43; 95% CI: 2.05-2.86, peripheral artery disease (2.16; 1.58-2.95, chronic kidney disease (1.99; 1.73-2.29, myocardial infarction 1.79 (1.49-2.15, diabetes 1.78 (1.53-2.07, stroke 1.67 (1.34-2.07, deep vein thrombosis 1.63 (1.29-2.06, coronary artery disease 1.61 (1.38-1.87, hypertension 1.49 (1.29-1.74, atrial fibrillation 1.48 (1.21-1.81 and dyslipidemia 1.16 (1.01-1.34. Sepsis risk increased with the number of chronic medical conditions (p<0.001.Individuals with chronic medical conditions are at increased risk of future sepsis events.

  20. Risk propensity assessment in military special operations. (United States)

    Sicard, B; Jouve, E; Blin, O


    Risk taking, decision making, and stress factors are strongly associated in military operations. The authors used the Bond and Lader mood and alertness scale and a new scale, Evaluation of Risks (EVAR), to assess risk proneness in a maritime counter-terrorism exercise. EVAR items are distributed among five factors: self-control, danger seeking, energy, impulsiveness, and invincibility. In the study, 10 pilots were submitted to strenuous night flights with limited sleep deprivation. Compared with baseline data, pilots reported an increase in impulsiveness, whereas EVAR factors were consistent in a control group composed of 9 navy crew member. Correlations were observed between mood and alertness and risk factors. These results illustrate how EVAR can be used to evaluate change in risk proneness in individuals submitted to various stressors. But further studies are required to weigh stress factors and environmental conditions in risk propensity with a larger population of various age and personality traits.

  1. Risk of Competition in Crisis Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela-Cornelia DANU


    Full Text Available For many types of risk affecting the economic existence of firms, risk ofcompetition is among the most important, both in terms of the gravity andintensity and the spread in space and time. In the context of the global economiccrisis, - economical, financial, social, image problems etc. encountered by theeconomic entities are responded through the engage of the companies in thecompetitive game using various strategic alternatives. The competitive gameinvolves: understanding the nature of the competitive strategy, the demarcationof their playing field, the competition analysis and the competitive decisioncommitment. Implicit, the new conditions created field of manifestation of theanticompetitive behavior on the various world markets, increasing the inherentrole of the decision makers in the competition policy.

  2. Wood Condition Assessment Manual: Second Edition (United States)

    Robert J. Ross; Robert H. White


    This report summarizes information on condition assessment of in-service wood, including visual inspection of wood and timbers, use of ultrasound and probing/boring techniques for inspection, and assessment of wood and timbers that have been exposed to fire. The report also includes information on assigning allowable design values for in-service wood.

  3. A Resilient Condition Assessment Monitoring System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Humberto Garcia; Wen-Chiao Lin; Semyon M. Meerkov


    An architecture and supporting methods are presented for the implementation of a resilient condition assessment monitoring system that can adaptively accommodate both cyber and physical anomalies to a monitored system under observation. In particular, the architecture includes three layers: information, assessment, and sensor selection. The information layer estimates probability distributions of process variables based on sensor measurements and assessments of the quality of sensor data. Based on these estimates, the assessment layer then employs probabilistic reasoning methods to assess the plant health. The sensor selection layer selects sensors so that assessments of the plant condition can be made within desired time periods. Resilient features of the developed system are then illustrated by simulations of a simplified power plant model, where a large portion of the sensors are under attack.

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bari, R.A.


    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  5. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S


    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  6. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.


    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  7. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation. (United States)

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine


    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  8. Desertification risk assessment and management program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Akbari


    Full Text Available Risk assessment provides the possibility of planning and management to prevent and reduce the risk of desertification. The present study is aimed to assess the hazard and risk of desertification and to develop management programs in the semi-arid western regions of Golestan Province in Iran. Desertification rate was obtained using the Iranian model of desertification potential assessment. Since the rating system was considered for the indicators, data analyses were carried out according to the Mann-Whitney test. The risk of desertification was calculated based on hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability assessment maps. The intensity of desertification was estimated to be medium. Among the factors affecting desertification, agriculture by the weighted average of 3.22 had the highest effect, followed by soil, vegetation, water and wind erosion criteria by weighted averages of 2.45, 2.32, 2.15 and 1.6 respectively. Desertification risk assessment results also showed that about 78% of central and northern parts of the region, with the largest population and residential centers, surface and underground water resources, agriculture and horticulture, is confronted with a high to very high degree of risk. Management plans and control measures, based on risk values were presented in four activities (with two management priorities under critical and non-critical conditions. For the management program with the largest area. Control measures and strategies such as the establishment of halophytic and xerophytic plants, drainage networks, resilient facilities and infrastructure were proposed. Reducing the risk of desertification, could play a crucial role in the sustainable development of drylands and desert ecosystems.

  9. Phytosanitary risk assessment of composts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Termorshuizen, A.J.; Rijn, van E.; Blok, W.J.


    Assessment of phytosanitary risks associated with application of composts in agriculture generally has focused on the sanitation (self-heating) phase during composting when most plant pathogens are inactivated due to lethal temperatures. However, a few plant pathogens are heat resistant and they may

  10. Where You Live: Risk Assessment (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Sharov Valeriy


    Full Text Available The article presents the technique of fuzzy expert assessment of risk that existed at the time an event occurred. The risk assessment is based on matrix proposed by the Airline Risk Management Solution (ARMS Group. The matrix allows assessing such risks in the numerical values of the conditional average. The values of the indicators in the cells of the ma- trix obtained by use of data processing got from aviation insurance.In practice the risk assessment that existed at the time of the event is largely based on expert opinions, however ARMS Group does not offer the method of forming estimates expert group total opinion. Conventional methods of expert estimation and averaging of final grades is difficult due to the exponential nature of changes in risk values recorded in thecells, when considered by columns and by rows of the matrix.The proposed method of risk assessment uses the approach adopted in the formation of membership functions ac- cording to expert estimates in the theory of fuzzy sets. Experts are invited to classify each event according to one of the categories of potential damage and the effectiveness of barriers parry (defenses using all available information. Processing of results is conducted using the method of expert analysis of fuzzy data based on the approach of fuzzy set theory. The seriousness (damage of the occurrence and effectiveness of the barriers considered as linguistic variables, each of which has four term sets. This approach allows taking into account the opinions of experts and obtaining valid estimates of risk do not necessarily coincided with fixed values of matrix cells.

  12. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment. (United States)


    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Biblin


    Full Text Available This review of publications presents the analysis of national scientific publications and methodological documents on health risks assessments under unfavorable external impacts. In available research publications, the hygienic risks assessment is most often considered in situations of chemicals impact, and such assessment has sufficient methodological providing. Comparison of publications and methodological documents allows determination of the possibility of methodological unity for health risk assessment in conditions of chemical and radiation impacts.

  14. 78 FR 27939 - Draft Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes (United States)


    ... Draft Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: Notice of... Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens.'' This draft quantitative risk assessment (QRA... conditions, such as Listeria (L.) monocytogenes contamination of certain ready-to-eat (RTE) foods, for...

  15. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)


    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  16. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance (United States)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra


    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  17. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment (United States)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.


    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  18. Nutritional Assessment of Children with Handicapping Conditions. (United States)

    Brown, Judith E.; And Others


    Discusses the methods and results of a nutritional assessment involving 64 noninstitutionalized children (ages 2-19 years) with various types of handicapping conditions. It is explained that, in general, children were smaller in weight and height than average and frequently consumed unbalanced diets. (Author/PHR)

  19. Suicide Risk Assessment in Adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Ida Skytte; Larsen, Kim Juul; Horwood, John


    Background: Assessment and screening are often the first step in planning interventions to help adolescents at risk of suicide. Causes of suicidal thoughts and behavior are multifaceted and it is important for clinical work that assessment reflects this complexity. Aim(s): To investigate whether...... a general psychological "Resilience Scale for Adolescents" (READ) is associated with a validated suicide rating scale (C-SSRS). Method: An observational study of self-reported suicidality (C-SSRS), psychological distress (K10) and resiliency (READ) in three adolescent samples: suicide clinic (N=147...

  20. Apollo 13 Risk Assessment Revisited


    Bukovics, István


    Fault tree methodology is the most widespread risk assessment tool by which one is able to predict - in principle - the outcome of an event whenever it is reduced to simpler ones by the logic operations conjunction and disjunction according to the basics of Boolean algebra. The object of this work is to present an algorithm by which, using the corresponding computer code, one is able to predict - in practice - the outcome of an event whenever its fault tree is given in the u...

  1. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday


    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  2. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.


    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  3. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk. (United States)

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A


    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  4. Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM: Groundwater Risk Assessment Model for Wellfield Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nara Somaratne


    Full Text Available A groundwater risk assessment was carried out for 30 potable water supply systems under a framework of protecting drinking water quality across South Australia. A semi-quantitative Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM was developed based on a “multi-barrier” approach using likelihood of release, contaminant pathway and consequence equation. Groundwater vulnerability and well integrity have been incorporated to the pathway component of the risk equation. The land use of the study basins varies from protected water reserves to heavily stocked grazing lands. Based on the risk assessment, 15 systems were considered as low risk, four as medium and 11 systems as at high risk. The GRAM risk levels were comparable with indicator bacteria—total coliform—detection. Most high risk systems were the result of poor well construction and casing corrosion rather than the land use. We carried out risk management actions, including changes to well designs and well operational practices, design to increase time of residence and setting the production zone below identified low permeable zones to provide additional barriers to contaminants. The highlight of the risk management element is the well integrity testing using down hole geophysical methods and camera views of the casing condition.

  5. Early warning and crop condition assessment research (United States)

    Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.


    The Early Warning Crop Condition Assessment Project of AgRISTARS was a multiagency and multidisciplinary effort. Its mission and objectives were centered around development and testing of remote-sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for global crop-condition assessments. The project developed crop stress indicators models that provide data filter and alert capabilities for monitoring global agricultural conditions. The project developed a technique for using NOAA-n satellite advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for operational crop-condition assessments. This technology was transferred to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA. The project developed a U.S. Great Plains data base that contains various meteorological parameters and vegetative index numbers (VIN) derived from AVHRR satellite data. It developed cloud screening techniques and scan angle correction models for AVHRR data. It also developed technology for using remotely acquired thermal data for crop water stress indicator modeling. The project provided basic technology including spectral characteristics of soils, water, stressed and nonstressed crop and range vegetation, solar zenith angle, and atmospheric and canopy structure effects.

  6. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul


    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  7. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese


    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  8. Childhood and adult social conditions and risk of stroke. (United States)

    Grau, Armin J; Ling, Paul; Palm, Frederik; Urbanek, Christian; Becher, Heiko; Buggle, Florian


    Socioeconomic conditions may strongly influence the risk of stroke. We tested the hypotheses that indexes of social status in different life periods including childhood are inversely associated with stroke risk and that there is a cumulative effect of social conditions during lifetime on the risk of stroke. Furthermore, we investigated whether social advancement compared to the parental generation is associated with reduced stroke risk. In a case-control study, we assessed parental professional status, highest school degree, professional education and the last professional activity in 370 consecutive patients with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke or transient ischemic attack [TIA; age 60.7 ± 12.8 years (mean ± standard deviation); 31.1% women] and 370 age- and sex-matched control subjects randomly selected from the general population of the same area. Higher level of school exams [odds ratio (OR) 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.39-0.86], university or polytechnic high school degrees (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.24-0.63), nonmanual (last or current) professional activity (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.37-0.71) and father's nonmanual professional activity (OR 0.64, 95% 0.43-0.97) were associated with a lower risk of stroke/TIA. Adjustment for vascular risk factors including current smoking and alcohol consumption reduced the strength of these associations and rendered them nonsignificant except for university or polytechnic high school degrees (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.27-0.87). Additional adjustment for regular sports activity further attenuated the association between academic degrees and risk of stroke/TIA (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.31-1.02). A score summarizing 4 lifetime social indexes was not independently associated with stroke risk (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.39-1.16). Social advancement as assessed by changes from paternal manual work to nonmanual work in the index generation was more common among control subjects (23.5%) than patients (15.3%; p = 0.0097), but such advancement was not independently

  9. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)


    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  10. The study of the prognostic value scales of assessing the risk of adverse coronary events in patients with acute coronary syndrome without ST-segment elevation in combination with comorbid conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorokhova O.V.


    Full Text Available Objective: to identify the most prognostically significant scale risk assessment of patients with acute coronary syndrome without ST-segment elevation in combination with diabetes mellitus type 2, chronic renal failure, multifo-cal coronarocardiosclerosis, dyscirculatory encephalopathy. Material and methods. 260 patients with acute coronary syndrome without ST-segment elevation were divided into 4 groups according to the presence of severe concomitant diseases: patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 (71 people, chronic renal failure (49, multifocal lesions of the coronary arteries (76 and patients with dyscirculatory encephalopathy of grade 2-3, including ischemic stroke (64. All patients were stratified by major scales risk: TIMI, GRACE, PURSUIT. The development of negative coronary events was assessed in hospital and during the year after discharge. On the basis of the results, all scales were studied using the criterion of Mann-Whitney and identified the most predictably significant groups of patients with specific comorbid conditions. Results. It is revealed that the significance of the scales TIMI and GRACE in the study of distant forecast (up to 6 months is the most reliable with acute coronary syndrome without ST-segment elevation in combination with diabetes mellitus type 2. For the patients with combination with chronic renal insufficiency the best prognostic significance was obtained by the GRACE scale in the study of hospital risk and forecast up to 6 months. TIMI and GRACE scales in the study of hospital risk and forecast up to 6 months had the greatest prognostic significance for the patients with acute coronary syndrome without ST-segment elevation on the background of multifocal lesions of the coronary arteries. For the patients with dyscirculatory encephalopathy of the 2nd and 3rd grades, the greatest prognostic significance was obtained by stratification of risk on PURSUIT and GRACE scales in the study of hospital risk and

  11. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading? (United States)

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina


    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  12. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo


    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  13. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1. (United States)

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea


    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens' involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed.

  14. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Apel, H; Thieken, A. H; Merz, B; Blöschl, G


    Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina


    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  16. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah


    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  17. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology. (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko


    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  18. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf


    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  19. GEOGLAM Crop Monitor Assessment Tool: Developing Monthly Crop Condition Assessments (United States)

    McGaughey, K.; Becker Reshef, I.; Barker, B.; Humber, M. L.; Nordling, J.; Justice, C. O.; Deshayes, M.


    The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) developed the Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM) to improve existing agricultural information through a network of international partnerships, data sharing, and operational research. This presentation will discuss the Crop Monitor component of GEOGLAM, which provides the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) with an international, multi-source, and transparent consensus assessment of crop growing conditions, status, and agro-climatic conditions likely to impact global production. This activity covers the four primary crop types (wheat, maize, rice, and soybean) within the main agricultural producing regions of the AMIS countries. These assessments have been produced operationally since September 2013 and are published in the AMIS Market Monitor Bulletin. The Crop Monitor reports provide cartographic and textual summaries of crop conditions as of the 28th of each month, according to crop type. This presentation will focus on the building of international networks, data collection, and data dissemination.

  20. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wei


    Full Text Available Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG. The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  1. Adolescent risk taking under stressed and nonstressed conditions: conservative, calculating, and impulsive types. (United States)

    Johnson, Sara B; Dariotis, Jacinda K; Wang, Constance


    Adolescent risk taking may result from heightened susceptibility to environmental cues, particularly emotion and potential rewards. This study evaluated the impact of social stress on adolescent risk taking, accounting for individual differences in risk taking under nonstressed conditions. Eighty-nine older adolescents completed a computerized risk-taking and decision-making battery at baseline. At follow-up, participants were randomized to a control condition, which repeated this battery, or an experimental condition, which included a social and cognitive stressor before the battery. Baseline risk-taking data were cluster-analyzed to create groups of adolescents with similar risk-taking tendencies. The degree to which these risk-taking tendencies predicted risk taking by stress condition was assessed at follow-up. Participants in the stress condition took more risks than those in the no-stress condition. However, differences in risk taking under stress were related to baseline risk-taking tendencies. We observed three types of risk-takers: conservative, calculated, and impulsive. Impulsives were less accurate and planful under stress; calculated risk takers took fewer risks; and conservatives engaged in low risk taking regardless of stress. As a group, adolescents are more likely to take risks in "hot cognitive" than in "cold cognitive" situations. However, there is significant variability in adolescents' behavioral responses to stress related to trait-level risk-taking tendencies. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment System (United States)


    distribution is unlimited UAV SWARM OPERATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT SYSTEM by Team CQ Alpha Cohort 311-141A September 2015 Project Advisors: Gregory......need for a UAV Swarm Risk Assessment Tool and how it can assist the Navy’s decision makers in assessing risk of UAV swarm threats in littoral

  3. Heart Conditions and Pregnancy: Know the Risks (United States)

    ... blood volume increases, congestive heart failure can worsen. Congenital heart defect If you were born with a heart problem, your baby has a greater risk of developing some type of heart defect, too. You might also be ...

  4. Risk management under the conditions of globalization


    E. Yu. Lopatina


    The important place in European society structure is occupied by the group of people carrying out similar activity, which could be called an enterprise (business) stratum. The social and economic approach requires to consider within scientific research not only the business activity, but also the subject of business activity, namely a figure of the businessman. The essence of business activity in all the contents is filled with risks of various characteristics. The risk as the phenomenon of t...

  5. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ... (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  6. Familial risk assessment for early-onset coronary heart disease. (United States)

    Scheuner, Maren T; Whitworth, William C; McGruder, Henraya; Yoon, Paula W; Khoury, Muin J


    We examined the performance of a familial risk assessment method that stratifies risk for early-onset coronary heart disease by considering the number of relatives with coronary disease, degree of relationship, lineage, and age at diagnosis. By using data from the HealthStyles 2003 survey, we assessed the associations between familial risk and early-onset coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and obesity. By using area under the curve statistics, we evaluated the discriminatory ability of various risk assessment models. Of 4,035 respondents, 60% were female and 72% were white, with a mean age of 48.8 years. After adjustment for demographics, strong and moderate risk were significantly associated with approximately a five- and twofold risk of early-onset coronary disease, respectively. After adjustment for demographics and personal history of cardiovascular disease, strong familial risk was also significantly associated with diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and obesity. A risk assessment model that included familial risk, demographics, and personal history of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and obesity was most optimal with an area under the curve statistic of 87.2% Familial risk assessment can stratify risk for early-onset coronary heart disease. Several conditions associated with increased familial risk can be prevented. These results have important implications for risk assessment and risk-reducing interventions.

  7. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles (United States)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.


    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  8. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  9. From Hazard to Risk - Assessing the Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madsen, C.B.; Houben, G.; Hattersley, S.; Crevel, R.W.R.; Remington, B.C.; Baumert, J.L.


    Regulatory thresholds for allergenic foods have not yet been developed. This means that public and industrial risk managers do not have regulatory thresholds to decide if a content or level of contamination is acceptable or not. For a long time, data have been inadequate to define safe thresholds

  10. Bilastine: an environmental risk assessment. (United States)

    Lucero, María Luisa; Peither, Armin; Ledo, Francisco


    Bilastine is a new oral selective, non-sedating histamine H1 antagonist for the symptomatic treatment of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and urticaria. The European Medicines Agency requires an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for all novel medicines for human use. To calculate the bilastine predicted environmental concentration in surface water (PECsw; phase I ERA), and to determine the effects of bilastine on aquatic systems (phase II [tier A]). Bilastine PECsw was calculated using the maximum daily dosage (20 mg), assuming that all administered bilastine was released into the aquatic environment. A persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity assessment was conducted using the log Kow from the molecular structure. In phase II (tier A), a ready biodegradability test was performed, and bilastine's potential toxicity to various aquatic and sediment-dwelling micro-organisms was evaluated. Bilastine PECSW was calculated as 0.1 μg L(-1), and the compound was not readily biodegradable. Bilastine had no significant effects on Chironomus riparius midges, or on the respiration rate of activated sludge. For green algae, the bilastine no observed effect concentration (NOEC) was 22 mg L(-1); bilastine had no effect on zebra fish development, or on the reproduction rate of daphnids. Bilastine NOEC values against zebra fish, algae, daphnids, and aerobic organisms in activated sludge were at least 130 000-fold greater than the calculated PECSW value. No environmental concerns exist from bilastine use in patients with allergic rhinoconjunctivitis or urticaria.

  11. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris


    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  12. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.


    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible.

  13. Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders (United States)

    Slack, Kelley J.; Schneiderman, Jason S.; Leveton, Lauren B.; Whitmire, Alexandra M.; Picano, James J.


    The NASA commitment to human space flight includes continuing to fly astronauts on the ISS until it is decommissioned as well as possibly returning astronauts to the moon or having astronauts venture to an asteroid or Mars. As missions leave low Earth orbit and explore deeper space, BHP supports and conducts research to enable a risk posture that considers the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders “acceptable given mitigations,” for pre-, in, and post-flight.The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) determines the risk of various mission scenarios using a likelihood (per person per year) by consequences matrix examining those risks across two categories—long term health and operational (within mission). Colors from a stoplight signal are used by HSRB and quickly provide a means of assessing overall perceived risk for a particular mission scenario. Risk associated with the current six month missions on the ISS are classified as “accepted with monitoring” while planetary missions, such as a mission to Mars, are recognized to be a “red” risk that requires mitigation to ensure mission success.Currently, the HSRB deems that the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric outcomes requires mitigation for planetary missions owing to long duration isolation and radiation exposure (see Table 1). While limited research evidence exists from spaceflight, it is well known anecdotally that the shift from the two week shuttle missions to the six month ISS missions renders the psychological stressors of space as more salient over longer duration missions. Shuttle astronauts were expected just to tolerate any stressors that arose during their mission and were successful at doing so (Whitmire et al, 2013). While it is possible to deal with stressors such as social isolation and to live with incompatible crewmembers for two weeks on shuttle, “ignoring it” is much less likely to be a successful coping mechanism

  14. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D


    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  15. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G


    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  16. Risk Assessment in Advanced Engineering Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holický


    Full Text Available Traditional methods for designing of civil engineering structures and other engineering systems are frequently based on the concept of target probability of failure. However, this fundamental quantity is usually specified on the basis of comparative studies and past experience only. Moreover, probabilistic design methods suffer from several deficiencies, including lack of consideration for accidental and other hazard situations and their consequences. Both of these extreme conditions are more and more frequently becoming causes of serious failures and other adverse events. Available experience clearly indicates that probabilistic design procedures may be efficiently supplemented by a risk analysis and assessment, which can take into account various consequences of unfavourable events. It is therefore anticipated that in addition to traditional probabilistic concepts the methods of advanced engineering design will also commonly include criteria for acceptable risks.

  17. Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simão Corrêa da Silva


    Full Text Available Cerrado vegetation is Brazil’s second largest biome, comprising about 388 municipalities in Minas Gerais state alone and serving as an important source of natural resources. A large share of the wood charcoal produced in Minas Gerais is sourced from Cerrado vegetation. The objective of this work is to assess the economic viability of Cerrado vegetation management for wood charcoal production, under conditions of risk. The study site is a fragment of Cerrado subjected to five levels of intervention as to basal area removal. For risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method was applied, using charcoal price, interest rate and land value as input variables, and using Net Present Value as output variable over an infinite planning horizon. It was concluded that introducing risk in the economic analysis of the various Cerrado management regimes helped provide additional information to that obtained by deterministic analysis, improving understanding and ensuring safety in decision-making about the economic viability of such regimes. For all treatments, the probability of VPL being negative increases with increasing cutting cycle lengths. For all treatments, the optimal cutting cycle is ten years. Treatments where a larger volume of wood was removed proved less prone to risks of economic inviability since they secure more revenue than treatments where less wood was removed.

  18. European risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaver, M.H.A.; Luiijf, H.A.M.; Nieuwenhuijs, A.H.; Cavenne, F.; Ulisse, A.; Bridegeman, G.


    Most risk assessment methodologies aim at the risk at the level of an individual organization or company. The European Union commissioned a study to define the elements for a uniform and scalable risk assessment methodology which takes into account critical infrastructure dependencies across

  19. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S


    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  20. Methodology for risk assessment of collapses of torrent check dams


    Martinčič, Manica


    Slovenia has a lot of torrential check dams, but until now there was no uniform method one could apply in order to perform a review of the torrential check dams' condition and to assess their physical vulnerability. In 2013, we assessed the risk of torrential check dams on Suhelj, Belca and Pišnica torrents by applying the risk assessment methodology for large dams. Since, for various reasons, the results were deemed useless, we decided to adjust the risk assessment model for torrential ch...

  1. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office


    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  2. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment (United States)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin


    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  3. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.


    A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...... the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using probabilistic...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic...

  4. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva


    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  5. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides (United States)

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  6. Pesticide Science and Assessing Pesticide Risks (United States)

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  7. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  8. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin


    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  9. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment: A Methodological Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Christensen, Frans Møller; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky


    Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different tools in environmental management. The paper identifies harmonies, discrepancies and relations between the two tools exemplified by the risk assessment principles of the European Commission (EC) and the LCA method ‘EDIP’ (En......-vironmental Design of Industrial Products) developed in Denmark, respectively. A very important feature of LCA is the relative assessment due to the use of a functional unit. Risk assessment on the other hand is an absolute assessment, which may require very specific and detailed information on e.g. the exposure...

  10. [Development and application of fracture risk assessments]. (United States)

    Nakamura, Toshitaka


    Definition of osteoporosis by BMD T-score has been accepted globally. However, the age-dependent changes in BMD values differ on the different sites for measurements and the sensitivity of BMD to predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture, assessed by the risk gradient value, is as small as 1.7. Reportedly, WHO Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX®) tool to compute 10-year probabilities of osteoporotic fracture, is sensitive enough to select the high fracture risk subjects with the risk gradient value of 2.57 - 2.77 in Japanese men and women. The combination of the three major risk factors such as age, BMD and prevalent fractures, when both morphometric spine and clinical non-spine fracture are included, represents the value of 2.49 - 2.71. Radiographic assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture, along with FRAX®evaluation, seems to be important in assessing the fracture risk in Japanese subjects.

  11. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  12. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.


    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  13. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change (United States)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom


    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  14. Risk assessment for industrial safety engineers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Nae U; Lee, Ji U; Jeon, Seong Gyun; Lee, Yeong Sun


    This book deals with risk assessment and dangerous material of definition cases and industrial disaster, risk assessment of summary, ways of assessment and effect model, material safety data sheet system such as management, writing skill and use, product and storage of dangerous material like chemical reaction of homogeneous catalysis, harmfulness of material, corrosion and anti corrosion like crevice corrosion and erosion corrosion and range, classification, application of safety assessment.

  15. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk (United States)

    ... greater risk for heart disease and other conditions: Risk Factors High blood pressure (hypertension) High LDL cholesterol ("bad" cholesterol) Low HDL cholesterol ("good" cholesterol) High triglycerides High blood ... to 29.9) and have two or more risk factors, it is recommended that you lose weight. Even ...

  16. Risk related behaviour under different ambient scent conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Gagarina


    Full Text Available Abstract The article analyses the effect of two ambient scents (peppermint and vanilla and their intensiveness on risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the relationship of ambient scent type and intensiveness with risk related behaviour that is expressed through selected decision making heuristics. Methodology/methods: 2x2 factorial experiment with control group was run. Ambient scent type (vanilla vs. peppermint and intensiveness (8 (1mg vs. 16 sprays (2mg of scent concentrate in the same room were manipulated as between subject variables. Risk aversion, effect of anchoring heuristic on bidding, and affect (risk and benefit heuristics were tracked as dependent variables. Scientific aim: To identify whether ambient scent type and intensiveness have effect on risk related behaviour. Findings: Evidence suggests that there are effects of ambient scent on risk related behaviour, thus fulfilling the missing gap to relate ambient environment to decision making heuristics when risks are involved. However, not all heuristics were affected by experimental conditions. Subjects were bidding significantly higher amounts under low anchor conditions, when peppermint scent was around (if compared to vanilla group. Affect risk was perceived as lower in peppermint ambient scent conditions, if compared to the control group. Intensity of ambient scent also had influence on affect risk: subjects perceived less risk under high scent intensity conditions. Conclusions: By manipulating ambient scent, marketers may reduce or increase consumers risk perception and behaviour and as a consequence influence their purchase decisions. Marketers could use peppermint scent in high intensiveness in the situations where they want consumers to undertake higher risks (expensive purchases, gambling, insurance, since stakes were higher under peppermint ambient scent

  17. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk


    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  18. An asymptotic test for the Conditional Value-at-Risk


    Vékás, Péter


    Conditional Value-at-Risk (equivalent to the Expected Shortfall, Tail Value-at-Risk and Tail Conditional Expectation in the case of continuous probability distributions) is an increasingly popular risk measure in the fields of actuarial science, banking and finance, and arguably a more suitable alternative to the currently widespread Value-at-Risk. In my paper, I present a brief literature survey, and propose a statistical test of the location of the CVaR, which may be applied by practising a...

  19. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang


    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  20. GHGT-11 - Integrated Carbon Risk Assessment (ICARAS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wollenweber, J.; Busby, D.; Wessel-Berg, D.; Nepveu, M.; Bossie Codreanu, D.; Grimstad, A-A.; Sijacic, D.; Maurand, N.; Lothe, A.; Wahl, F.; Polak, S.; Boot, H.; Grøver, A.; Wildenborg, T.


    In this paper an integrated workflow is described for risk assessment within CCS. IFPEN, SINTEF and TNO joined forces to define a comprehensive and transparent risk assessment methodology. The tools developed in these institutes are thereby integrated. The workflow can be applied to proposed carbon

  1. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth


    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  2. Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment (United States)

    2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

  3. Assurance of Fault Management: Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness (United States)

    Fitz, Rhonda


    Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of criticality within flight software, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance for NASA projects, especially as spaceflight systems continue to increase in complexity. Insight into specific characteristics of FM architectures seen embedded within safety- and mission-critical software systems analyzed by the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program has been enhanced with an FM Technical Reference (TR) suite. Benefits are aimed beyond the IVV community to those that seek ways to efficiently and effectively provide software assurance to reduce the FM risk posture of NASA and other space missions. The identification of particular FM architectures, visibility, and associated IVV techniques provides a TR suite that enables greater assurance that critical software systems will adequately protect against faults and respond to adverse conditions. The role FM has with regard to overall asset protection of flight software systems is being addressed with the development of an adverse condition (AC) database encompassing flight software vulnerabilities.Identification of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine how a system responds to these conditions are important aspects of hazard analysis and fault management. Understanding what ACs the mission may face, and ensuring they are prevented or addressed is the responsibility of the assurance team, which necessarily should have insight into ACs beyond those defined by the project itself. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs, and allowing queries based on project, mission

  4. Asbestos Workshop: Sampling, Analysis, and Risk Assessment (United States)


    1EMDQ March 2012 ASBESTOS WORKSHOP: SAMPLING, ANALYSIS, AND RISK ASSESSMENT Paul Black, PhD, Neptune and Company Ralph Perona, DABT, Neptune and...NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Neptune and Company, Inc,1435 Garrison Street, Suite 110,Denver,CO...8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 2 Presentation Objective Provide an overview of asbestos-related risk assessment: • Focus on risk from

  5. Vascular Plaque Determination for Stroke Risk Assessment (United States)


    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0608 TITLE: Vascular Plaque Determination for Stroke Risk Assessment PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Vince, David Geoffrey...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Vascular Plaque Determination for Stroke Risk Assessment 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-16-1-0608 5c. PROGRAM... plaques at high risk for initiating a cerebrovascular accident. The core of the current research project is a pilot clinical study to enroll 100 subjects

  6. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović


    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.


    This analysis evaluates potential risks due to release of solvents from laundry sludge and disposable wipes sent to a landfill. Receptors for air and groundwater in lined and unlined landfills were evaluated. The potential solvent concentrations were calculated to determine the solvent loadings from the wipes and sludge. The mass based solvent quantity loadings were compared to the risk based loadings to determine the risk potential for specific solvents. This risk analysis also addressed previous peer reviewers’ and general public comments on the initial risk assessment conducted for the proposed rule. The final rule, supported by the risk assessment, will be prepared after the consideration of all comments for the proposed rule and the risk analysis Notice of Data Availability. The risk analysis will be used to support the development of a final rule for solvent-contaminated wipes. To ensure the adequacy of the modeling and solvent concentrations, the analysis was peer reviewed by external reviewers.

  8. Common breast cancer risk alleles and risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Näslund-Koch, C; Nordestgaard, B G; Bojesen, S E


    general population were followed in Danish health registries for up to 21 years after blood sampling. After genotyping 72 breast cancer risk loci, each with 0-2 alleles, the sum for each individual was calculated. We used the simple allele sum instead of the conventional polygenic risk score...... cancer risks ≤ 1.5%. Using polygenic risk score led to similar results. CONCLUSION: Common breast cancer risk alleles are associated with incidence and mortality of breast cancer in the general population, but not with other cancers. After including breast cancer allele sum in risk assessment, 25......BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that common breast cancer risk alleles are associated with incidences of breast cancer and other cancers in the general population, and identify low risk women among those invited for screening mammography. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: 35,441 individuals from the Danish...

  9. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries


    Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S.


    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The ...

  10. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization (United States)

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  11. Cardiovascular risk assessment in diabetes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Djaberi, Roxana


    Research described in this thesis is based on clinical data obtained through diabetes cardiovascular risk management (DIACARM) project. A clinical protocol founded on the co-operation of the departments of endocrinology, cardiology, nephrology, radiology and nuclear medicine at the Leiden University

  12. Health risk assessments for alumina refineries. (United States)

    Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S


    To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

  13. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food. (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef


    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  14. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment. (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace


    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  15. Models to Assess the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Valeria TOMA


    Full Text Available Closely related to financial risk assessment, one of the main concerns of the organizations should be the evaluation of bankruptcy risk, in this period of slow economic growth. Organization bankruptcies have increased in recent years worldwide. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the methods and models for forecasting bankruptcy of organizations, for the bankruptcy risk assessment are seeing for the health financing of an entity in financial accounting diagnosis and that the organizations requires assessment of risks accompanying the work, in which some signals fragility (vulnerable health this and other projected bankruptcy (insolvability threatens its survival (continuity. The bankruptcy risk assessment is important for profit-seeking investors because they must know how to value a company in or near bankruptcy is an important skill, but to detect any signs of looming bankruptcy is necessary to calculate and to analyse all kinds of financial rations: working capital, profitability, debt levels and liquidity.

  16. Suicide risk assessment in high-risk adolescents. (United States)

    Gray, Barbara P; Dihigo, Sharolyn K


    A significant number of adolescents experience depression and other mental health disorders that may put them at risk for suicide. Mental health assessment is an important component of primary healthcare. Depression and suicide risk screening can assist healthcare providers in preventing suicides.

  17. Prevalence and risk factors for obstructive respiratory conditions ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Workers in the cotton processing industries risk developing obstructive respiratory conditions due to prolonged exposure to cotton dust. We noted a tenfold increase in asthma among workers in a Textile Manufacturing Company. We determined the prevalence of respiratory obstructive conditions among ...

  18. Risk Assessment of the Innovative Projects Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deptuła Anna Małgorzata


    Full Text Available The article presents the issue of risk assessment of innovations. Specificity of technological innovation realized in manufacturing companies has been particularly well described here. An original method of assessing the innovative projects risk has been presented. The elaborated method has been implemented in three enterprises, the business activity of which is not typical for electrical engineering, metal and mechanical engineering and companies which are going to carry out the innovative project simultaneously with already started innovative projects. Moreover, an example of the risk assessment of a chosen technological innovation has been presented.

  19. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel


    standardised scientific methods to characterise the probability and magnitude of harm caused by a hazard, preferably in a quantitative manner. In turn, HIA is a process to assess future impacts of recent proposals and is dominated by qualitative evaluation. It makes a projection for a future scenario rather......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...... their relationship. The experiences accumulated during the preparation of several case studies in a large scale international project (RAPID) are used for argumentation and formulation of recommendations on how risk assessment can be systematically integrated into the HIA process. Risk assessment uses well...

  20. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  1. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ... (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  2. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula


    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  3. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  4. [Study on application of two risk assessment methods in coal dust occupational health risk assessment]. (United States)

    Wu, B; Zhang, Y L; Chen, Y Q


    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of quantitative grading method (GBZ/T 229.1-2010) and occupational hazard risk index method in coal dust occupational health risk assessment. Methods: Taking 4 coal mines as the research object of risk assessment and making occupational health field testing and investigation. Based on two risk assessment methods, we analysed the health risk levels of 20 occupations which were exposed to coal dust in workplaces. Results: Coal dust working post had different risk levels in 4 coal mines, the post of higher risk level were mainly concentrated in the underground workplace of coal mine, especially the post of coal mining and tunneling system. The two risk assessment results showed that the risk levels of coal-mining machine drivers and tunneling machine drivers were the highest. The risk levels of coal dust working post used by two risk assessment methods had no significant difference (P>0.05) and were highly correlated (r=0.821, Prisk assessment methods were supported by the field investigation and literatures. Conclusion: The two risk assessment methods can be used in coal dust occupational health risk assessment.

  5. Risk assessment in transportation systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Młyńczak Marek


    Full Text Available The paper presents problems of hazard identification in transportation systems, where not only field of action is large but also cause-consequences relations between failure causes and losses are distant in time and space. It is observed in transportation systems of goods and passengers, systems of water, gas, oil distribution and electro-energetic nets. Proposed systemic approach based on system elements classification on active (casual and passive ones (affected. There are described concepts of vulnerability (damageability, resilience (ability of recovering and risk controlling by introducing safety measures to undesired event chain.

  6. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  7. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David


    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...

  8. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...

  9. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)


    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  10. Open risk assessment: methods and expertise

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Verloo, Didier; Meyvis, Tom; Smith, Anthony


    ... traditional dialogue and towards a more sustainable stakeholder and society interaction. The discussion centred on the needs of EFSA and of target audiences throughout the process, from risk assessment initiation through societal...

  11. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  12. How We Assess Risks to Pollinators (United States)

    EPA has a new risk assessment framework for bees as part of its regulatory decision-making process for all pesticides, which relies on a tiered process, focuses on major routes of exposure, and distinguishes different types of pesticide treatment.

  13. Towards dynamics in flood risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mazzorana, B; Levaggi, L; Keiler, M; Fuchs, S


    .... The assessment of the dynamic evolution of flood risk is the pillar of any subsequent planning process that is targeted at a reduction of the expected adverse consequences of the hazard impact...

  14. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.


    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  15. European Union Risk Assessment Report - Sodium Perborate



    This report provides , with conclusions, the risk assessment report of the substance sodium perborate that has been prepared by Austria in the context of Council Regulation (EEC) No. 793/93 on the evaluation and control of existing substances.

  16. Selected medical conditions and risk of pancreatic cancer. (United States)

    Olson, Sara H


    We review the current evidence for associations of several medical conditions with risk of pancreatic cancer, including allergies, pancreatitis, gall bladder disease, cholecystectomy, ulcers, gastrectomy, appendectomy, and tonsillectomy. There are consistent findings of reduced risk associated with presence of self-reported allergies, particularly hay fever but not asthma; data on other allergies are limited and inconclusive. Several studies provide evidence that patients with pancreatic cancer are more likely than comparison groups to report pancreatitis. Those studies that investigated the time between onset of pancreatitis and diagnosis of pancreatic cancer found that risk estimates declined with longer periods of time; however, increased risks were noted for long-term pancreatitis, indicating that this condition is both a risk factor and a sign of early disease. Increased risk was reported in association with cholelithiasis, but the few studies that considered time before diagnosis of cancer did not find increased risk for cholelithiasis diagnosed in the more distant past. There is weak evidence that cholecystectomy 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis is related to risk, but this is based on only a few studies. There is no consistent association between ulcers and risk, while gastrectomy may increase risk. Overall, study of these conditions, particularly those that are rare, presents methodologic challenges. Time between diagnoses is likely to be important but is not considered in most studies. Lack of adequate control in several studies for risk factors such as smoking and heavy alcohol use also makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions about these results. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments


    Taubenberger, Stefan


    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  18. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments ? A Review


    Kyoung-Hee Choi; Heeyoung Lee; Soomin Lee; Sejeong Kim; Yohan Yoon


    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused o...

  19. Import risk assessment for salmon meat. (United States)

    Beers, P T; Wilson, D W


    The authors discuss the risk assessment currently being conducted by the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service (AQIS) on the importation of salmon products. AQIS conducted a public consultation on the proposal, in line with Australian Government policy on transparency and accountability in the quarantine decision-making process. The authors examine the factors which should be taken into account in the assessment of the risk associated with the importation of such products, and note the difficulties encountered with the epidemiology of fish diseases.

  20. Sulfur Oxides Risk and Exposure Assessment Planning ... (United States)

    In conducting risk/exposure assessments for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review, EPA will first develop a draft Scope and Methods Plan which will describe the proposed scope of the quantitative and qualitative analyses to be performed and the tools/methods that may be employed Provide opportunity for CASAC feedback on EPA's plans for the risk and exposure assessment for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review

  1. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)


    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  2. Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Moel, H.; Jongman, B.; Kreibich, H.; Merz, B.; Penning-Rowsell, E; Ward, P.J.


    Managing flood risk, i.e. both the hazard and the potential consequences, is an important aspect of adapting to global change and has gained much traction in recent decades. As a result, a priori flood risk assessments have become an important part of flood management practices. Many methodologies

  3. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  4. Experimental Validation of a Risk Assessment Method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriezekolk, E.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    [Context and motivation] It is desirable that require- ment engineering methods are reliable, that is, that methods can be repeated with the same results. Risk assessments methods, however, often have low reliability when they identify risk mitigations for a sys- tem based on expert judgement.

  5. [Current lines of methodology for risk assessment]. (United States)

    Rakhmanin, Iu A; Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A


    The paper presents the results of some guidance studies assessing the risk, recently conducted at the A. N. Sysin Research Institute of Human Ecology and Environmental Health, such as validation of toxicological and hygienic criteria for risk assessment upon short- and long-term human exposures to deleterious substances; development and introduction of methods for assessing health risk and damage, by applying computer technologies; elaboration of guidelines for establishing the cause-and-effect relationship of changes in health indices to those in the environment; characterization of damage caused by ambient air pollution in Russian cities and towns; possibilities of using the guidance for assessing the risk to improve sociohygienic monitoring. It also gives the results of testing scientific developments in the assessment of a multienvironmental risk in the areas exposed to emission from aluminum works (Khakasia) and chemical and petrochemical enterprises (Samara Region) and in the determination of contribution of emission from the Moscow fuel-and-energy complex to risks and damages to human health, caused by ambient air pollution. The urgent issues of further development of modern trends in risk guidance studies are determined.

  6. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto


    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  7. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.


    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  8. Family history assessment: impact on disease risk perceptions. (United States)

    Wang, Catharine; Sen, Ananda; Ruffin, Mack T; Nease, Donald E; Gramling, Robert; Acheson, Louise S; O'Neill, Suzanne M; Rubinstein, Wendy S


    Family Healthware™, a tool developed by the CDC, is a self-administered web-based family history tool that assesses familial risk for six diseases (coronary heart disease; stroke; diabetes; and colon, breast, and ovarian cancers) and provides personalized prevention messages based on risk. The Family Healthware Impact Trial (FHITr) set out to examine the clinical utility of presenting personalized preventive messages tailored to family history risk for improving health behaviors. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of Family Healthware on modifying disease risk perceptions, particularly among those who initially underestimated their risk for certain diseases. A total of 3786 patients were enrolled in a cluster-randomized trial to evaluate the clinical utility of Family Healthware. Participants were recruited from 41 primary care practices among 13 states between 2005 and 2007. Perceived risk for each disease was assessed at baseline and 6-month follow-up using a single-item comparative risk question. Analyses were completed in March 2012. Compared to controls, Family Healthware increased risk perceptions among those who underestimated their risk for heart disease (15% vs 9%, prisk perceptions. Family Healthware was effective at increasing disease risk perceptions, particularly for metabolic conditions, among those who underestimated their risk. Results from this study also demonstrate the relatively resistant nature of risk perceptions. This study is registered at clinicaltrials.govNCT00164658. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  9. Methodological development: structured outcome assessment and community risk monitoring (SORM). (United States)

    Grann, Martin; Sturidsson, Knut; Haggård-Grann, Ulrika; Hiscoke, Ulrika L; Alm, Per-Olof; Dernevik, Mats; Gumpert, Clara; Hallqvist, Johan; Hallquist, Tommy; Kullgren, Gunnar; Långström, Niklas; Lotterberg, Malin; Nordström, Kristina; Ståhle, Birgitta; Woodhouse, Anni


    This paper describes an effort to develop a clinical tool for the continuous monitoring of risk for violence in forensic mental health clients who have left their institutions and who are dwelling in the community on a conditional release basis. The model is called Structured Outcome Assessment and Community Risk Monitoring (SORM). The SORM consists of 30 dynamic factors and each factor in SORM is assessed in two ways: The current absence, presence or partial och intermittent presence of the factors, which is an actuarial (systematized and 'objective') assessment. Secondly, the risk effect, i.e. whether the presence/absence of factors currently increases, decreases or is perceived as unrelated to violence risk, is a clinical (or impressionistic) assessment. Thus, the factors considered via the SORM can be coded as risk factors or protective factors (or as factors unimportant to risk of violence) depending on circumstances that apply in the individual case. Further, the SORM has a built-in module for gathering idiographical information about risk-affecting contextual factors. The use of the SORM and its potential as a risk monitoring instrument is illustrated via preliminary data and case vignettes from an ongoing multicenter project. In this research project, patients leaving any of the 9 participating forensic hospitals in Sweden is assessed at release on a variety of static background factors, and the SORM is then administered every 30 days for 2 years.

  10. Updating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment. (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W


    Actuarial scales like the Static-99R are widely used to predict an individual's risk of sexual recidivism. However, current actuarial scales only provide rates of detected sex offenses over 10-year follow-up and do not account for all recidivism risk factors. Therefore, some forensic evaluators extrapolate, adjust, or override recidivism rates derived from actuarial scales to predict the lifetime risk of committed offenses that accounts for external risk factors, those not addressed by the actuarial scales. However, critics contend that altering rates from actuarial scales degrades their predictive validity. This article makes the case for extrapolating risk for time of exposure and for evidence-based external risk factors. It proposes using odds ratios (ORs) from case-control studies to adjust predictions from follow-up cohort studies. Finally, it shows how evaluators can apply ORs and their margins of error to sex offender risk assessment.

  11. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante


    as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p ... of impaired specificities. No combinations proved clinically useful values according to Yuoden's index. CONCLUSIONS: Within the limitations of the present study, the computer-based Cariogram did not perform better than a caries risk assessment scheme based on past caries experience and caries progression...

  12. Continuous Time Portfolio Selection under Conditional Capital at Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana Dmitrasinovic-Vidovic


    Full Text Available Portfolio optimization with respect to different risk measures is of interest to both practitioners and academics. For there to be a well-defined optimal portfolio, it is important that the risk measure be coherent and quasiconvex with respect to the proportion invested in risky assets. In this paper we investigate one such measure—conditional capital at risk—and find the optimal strategies under this measure, in the Black-Scholes continuous time setting, with time dependent coefficients.

  13. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk. (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei


    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.


    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  15. Assessing wildfire risks at multiple spatial scales (United States)

    Justin Fitch


    In continuation of the efforts to advance wildfire science and develop tools for wildland fire managers, a spatial wildfire risk assessment was carried out using Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis was performed at two scales. The small-scale assessment covered the entire state of New Mexico, while...

  16. Risk assessment as collective clinical judgement. (United States)

    Murphy, Denis


    Risk assessment occupies an increasingly important position in psychiatry. This paper contends that collective judgement is the optimal method of assessing risk. Risk has a dual meaning: emotional and judgemental. Assaults, threats and survival anxiety. Staff wariness and resistance, attribution of blame. For a group to function well it must have a clear task. Custodial roles can lead to ambiguity. Externally directed hostility, internal homogenization of views. Rituals can develop in forensic institutions, as well as militarism. ANTI-THERAPEUTIC CULTURE: Sadism may develop where a marked power differential develops. Danger intensifies the feelings about leaders, perhaps idealization, perhaps disaffection. Leaders and others need to agree on risk assessment or fragmentation will occur. The assessment of risk may modify it. Mutual hostility must be reduced. Dialogue and understanding are needed. The environment should be less authoritarian and more democratic, so that patients can join a group and internalize its values. Reflective space is also required. Risk assessment is best described in terms of human endeavour, not in the language of scientific measurement.

  17. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.


    With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  18. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain) (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.


    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  19. NNP-LANL Utilities - Condition Assessment and Project Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, Grant Lorenz [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)


    This report is a presentation on LANL Utilities & Transportation Asset Management; Utility Assets Overview; Condition Assessment; Utilities Project Nominations & Ranking; and Utilities Project Execution.

  20. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ... (United States)

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  1. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector


    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  2. Assessing risk: the role of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in patient safety improvement. (United States)

    Wreathall, J; Nemeth, C


    Morbidity and mortality due to "medical errors" compel better understanding of health care as a system. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used to assess the designs of high hazard, low risk systems such as commercial nuclear power plants and chemical manufacturing plants and is now being studied for its potential in the improvement of patient safety. PRA examines events that contribute to adverse outcomes through the use of event tree analysis and determines the likelihood of event occurrence through fault tree analysis. It complements tools already in use in patient safety such as failure modes and effects analyses (FMEAs) and root cause analyses (RCAs). PRA improves on RCA by taking account of the more complex causal interrelationships that are typical in health care. It also enables the analyst to examine potential solution effectiveness by direct graphical representations. However, PRA simplifies real world complexity by forcing binary conditions on events, and it lacks adequate probability data (although recent developments help to overcome these limitations). Its reliance on expert assessment calls for deep domain knowledge which has to come from research performed at the "sharp end" of acute care.

  3. Effectiveness of insurance risk management under crisis conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.G. Goncharenko


    Full Text Available In the article some historical aspects of insurance, domestic trends in insurance risk management with aspects of international experience, the modern role of insurance and insurance companies in a market economy, factors of risk management system and the nature of the insurance portfolio are analyzed. Factors of risk events in insurance, the spectrum of risks, imbalance of the insurance market in crisis conditions are outlined; expert’s estimations of the insurance market in recent years are examined. Problems of insurance business perform are determined, especially insurance risk management. The ability to use the provisions of European insurance regulation on internal domestic insurance market is analyzed, and also the aspects of integration of Ukrainian insurance market are determined.

  4. Condition assessment and strengthening of residential units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatheer Zahra


    Full Text Available About 40, ground plus one (G+1 residential units were designed using a hybrid structural framing system (RC frame and load bearing walls. A few months after the completion of the ground floor of the residential units, cracks appeared at several locations in the structure. Field and Laboratory testing was conducted to ascertain the in situ strength of concrete and steel reinforcement. The results of the experimental work were used in the analytical ETABS model for the structural stability calculations. The results indicated that residential units were marginally safe in the existing condition (completed ground floor, but the anticipated construction of the floor above the ground floor (G+1 could not be carried out as the strength of the structural system was inadequate. To increase the safety of existing ground floor and to provide the option of the construction of one floor above, rehabilitation and strengthening design was performed. The proposed strengthening design made use of welded wire fabric (WWF and carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP laminates/sheets for the strengthening of walls, columns and slabs. The residential units will be strengthened in the near future.

  5. Low-Load Space Conditioning Needs Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puttagunta, Srikanth [Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), Norwalk, CT (United States)


    Heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment must be right-sized to ensure energy performance and comfort. With limited low-load options in the HVAC market, many new-construction housing units are being fitted with oversized equipment that creates system efficiency, comfort, and cost penalties. To bridge the gap between currently available HVAC equipment that is oversized or inefficient and the rising demand for low-load HVAC equipment in the marketplace, HVAC equipment manufacturers need to be fully aware of the needs of the multifamily building and attached single-family (duplex and townhouse) home market. Over the past decade, Steven Winter Associates, Inc. (SWA) has provided certification and consulting services for hundreds of housing projects and has accrued a large pool of data that describe multifamily and attached single-family home characteristics. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Building America research team Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) compiled and analyzed these data to outline the characteristics of low-load dwellings such as the heating and cooling design loads.

  6. Fuzzy logic for pipelines risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Alidoosti


    Full Text Available Pipelines systems are identified to be the safest way of transporting oil and natural gas. One of the most important aspects in developing pipeline systems is determining the potential risks that implementers may encounter. Therefore, risk analysis can determine critical risk items to allocate the limited resources and time. Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP is one of the best methodologies for assessing the security risks. However, the most challenging problem in this method is uncertainty. Therefore, fuzzy set theory is used to model the uncertainty. Thus, Fuzzy RAMCAP is introduced in order to risk analysis and management for pipeline systems. Finally, a notional example from pipeline systems is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed methodology.

  7. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamali, K. [Dept. of Energy, Germantown, MD (United States). Core Technical Support and Facility Transition; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.; Sanzo, D.L. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)


    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.

  8. Probabilistic Modeling and Risk Assessment of Cable Icing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roldsgaard, Joan Hee

    both in relation to ice induced vibrations to assess the fatigue life and in relation to decision making in risk management of bridges exposed to icing. First a basic and preliminary framework for the assessment of cumulative bridge cable fatigue damage due to wind-induced vibrations is presented...... are influencing the two icing mechanisms and their duration. The model is found to be more sensitive to changes in the discretization levels of the input variables. Thirdly the developed operational probabilistic framework for the assessment of the expected number of occurrences of ice/snow accretion on bridge...... of icing events, which is based on the monitoring of environmental conditions and short term forecasting. Decision problems in risk management can be supported by quantifying the value of structural health monitoring (SHM). The approach for the assessment of the value of SHM takes basis in structural risk...

  9. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks. (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian


    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  10. Bricolage concept in risk culture assessment


    Iwona Gorzeń Mitka


    When faced with challenging conditions in which companies operate today, rapid access to various forms of resource can be a key determinant of organisational resilience on risk. Management of risk is considered to be a powerful instrument for sustainable development in organization. The concept of bricolage offers the potential to better understanding of organisational resourcefulness in a time of disruption. The study includes the research results concerning the identification of correlation...

  11. Assessing the ecological condition of streams in a southeastern Brazilian basin using a probabilistic monitoring design. (United States)

    Jiménez-Valencia, Juliana; Kaufmann, Philip R; Sattamini, Ana; Mugnai, Riccardo; Baptista, Darcilio Fernandes


    Prompt assessment and management actions are required if we are to reduce the current rapid loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide. Statistically valid quantification of the biota and habitat condition in water bodies are prerequisites for rigorous assessment of aquatic biodiversity and habitat. We assessed the ecological condition of streams in a southeastern Brazilian basin. We quantified the percentage of stream length in good, fair, and poor ecological condition according to benthic macroinvertebrate assemblage. We assessed the risk of finding degraded ecological condition associated with degraded aquatic riparian physical habitat condition, watershed condition, and water quality. We describe field sampling and implementation issues encountered in our survey and discuss design options to remedy them. Survey sample sites were selected using a spatially balanced, stratified random design, which enabled us to put confidence bounds on the ecological condition estimates derived from the stream survey. The benthic condition index indicated that 62 % of stream length in the basin was in poor ecological condition, and 13 % of stream length was in fair condition. The risk of finding degraded biological condition when the riparian vegetation and forests in upstream catchments were degraded was 2.5 and 4 times higher, compared to streams rated as good for the same stressors. We demonstrated that the GRTS statistical sampling method can be used routinely in Brazilian rain forests and other South American regions with similar conditions. This survey establishes an initial baseline for monitoring the condition and trends of streams in the region.

  12. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan


    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  13. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra


    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  14. Risk management of exposure to chemicals under operational conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langenberg, J.P.


    The HFM panel has decided to install an Exploratory Team, ET-078, which should advise whether or not a Technical Group (TG) should be established on the subject of risk management of exposure to chemicals under operational conditions. This paper described the context and approach of ET-078.

  15. NGNP Risk Management through Assessing Technology Readiness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Collins


    Throughout the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project life cycle, technical risks are identified, analyzed, and mitigated and decisions are made regarding the design and selection of plant and sub-system configurations, components and their fabrication materials, and operating conditions. Risk resolution and decision making are key elements that help achieve project completion within budget and schedule constraints and desired plant availability. To achieve this objective, a formal decision-making and risk management process was developed for NGNP, based on proven systems engineering principles that have guided aerospace and military applications.

  16. Comprehensive geriatric assessment: recognition of identified geriatric conditions by community-dwelling older persons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rijn, Marjon; Suijker, Jacqueline J.; Bol, Wietske; Hoff, Eva; ter Riet, Gerben; de Rooij, Sophia E.; Moll van Charante, Eric P.; Buurman, Bianca M.


    OBJECTIVES: to study (i) the prevalence of geriatric conditions in community-dwelling older persons at increased risk of functional decline and (ii) the extent to which older persons recognise comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA)-identified conditions as relevant problems. METHODS: trained

  17. Comprehensive geriatric assessment: recognition of identified geriatric conditions by community-dwelling older persons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rijn, Marjon; Suijker, Jacqueline J.; Bol, Wietske; Hoff, Eva; ter Riet, Gerben; de Rooij, Sophia E.; Moll van Charante, Eric P.; Buurman, Bianca M.


    to study (i) the prevalence of geriatric conditions in community-dwelling older persons at increased risk of functional decline and (ii) the extent to which older persons recognise comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA)-identified conditions as relevant problems. trained registered nurses

  18. Comprehensive geriatric assessment : recognition of identified geriatric conditions by community-dwelling older persons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rijn, Marjon; Suijker, Jacqueline J.; Bol, Wietske; Hoff, Eva; ter Riet, Gerben; de Rooij, Sophia E.; van Charante, Eric P. Moll; Buurman, Bianca M.


    Objectives: to study (i) the prevalence of geriatric conditions in community-dwelling older persons at increased risk of functional decline and (ii) the extent to which older persons recognise comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA)-identified conditions as relevant problems. Methods: trained

  19. Assessment of Risk for Recurrent Diverticulitis (United States)

    Sallinen, Ville; Mali, Juha; Leppäniemi, Ari; Mentula, Panu


    Abstract Recurrence of acute diverticulitis is common, and—especially complicated recurrence—causes significant morbidity. To prevent recurrence, selected patients have been offered prophylactic sigmoid resection. However, as there is no tool to predict whose diverticulitis will recur and, in particular, who will have complicated recurrence, the indications for sigmoid resections have been variable. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors predicting recurrence of acute diverticulitis. This is a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting with computed tomography–confirmed acute diverticulitis and treated nonresectionally during 2006 to 2010. Risk factors for recurrence were identified using uni- and multivariate Cox regression. A total of 512 patients were included. History of diverticulitis was an independent risk factor predicting uncomplicated recurrence of diverticulitis (1–2 earlier diverticulitis HR 1.6, 3 or more—HR 3.2). History of diverticulitis (HR 3.3), abscess (HR 6.2), and corticosteroid medication (HR 16.1) were independent risk factors for complicated recurrence. Based on regression coefficients, risk scoring was created: 1 point for history of diverticulitis, 2 points for abscess, and 3 points for corticosteroid medication. The risk score was unable to predict uncomplicated recurrence (AUC 0.48), but was able to predict complicated recurrence (AUC 0.80). Patients were further divided into low-risk (0–2 points) and high-risk (>2 points) groups. Low-risk and high-risk groups had 3% and 43% 5-year complicated recurrence rates, respectively. Risk for complicated recurrence of acute diverticulitis can be assessed using risk scoring. The risk for uncomplicated recurrence increases along with increasing number of previous diverticulitis. PMID:25715253

  20. Assessing and Mitigating Risks in Computer Systems


    Netland, Lars-Helge


    When it comes to non-trivial networked computer systems, bulletproof security is very hard to achieve. Over a system's lifetime new security risks are likely to emerge from e.g. newly discovered classes of vulnerabilities or the arrival of new threat agents. Given the dynamic environment in which computer systems are deployed, continuous evaluations and adjustments are wiser than one-shot e orts for perfection. Security risk management focuses on assessing and treating security...

  1. Guyana Rice Supply Chain Risk Assessment


    World Bank


    This report is the outcome of assessment and is intended as an advisory note to the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB) to enable them to identify a strategy and potential public investments to improve current risk-management practices in the rice supply chain. This report identifies the major risks facing the rice supply chain, ranks them in terms of the...

  2. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda


    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  3. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment]. (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies]. (United States)

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves


    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  5. Sensitivity analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment. (United States)

    Zwieterin, M H; van Gerwen, S J


    The occurrence of foodborne disease remains a widespread problem in both the developing and the developed world. A systematic and quantitative evaluation of food safety is important to control the risk of foodborne diseases. World-wide, many initiatives are being taken to develop quantitative risk analysis. However, the quantitative evaluation of food safety in all its aspects is very complex, especially since in many cases specific parameter values are not available. Often many variables have large statistical variability while the quantitative effect of various phenomena is unknown. Therefore, sensitivity analysis can be a useful tool to determine the main risk-determining phenomena, as well as the aspects that mainly determine the inaccuracy in the risk estimate. This paper presents three stages of sensitivity analysis. First, deterministic analysis selects the most relevant determinants for risk. Overlooking of exceptional, but relevant cases is prevented by a second, worst-case analysis. This analysis finds relevant process steps in worst-case situations, and shows the relevance of variations of factors for risk. The third, stochastic analysis, studies the effects of variations of factors for the variability of risk estimates. Care must be taken that the assumptions made as well as the results are clearly communicated. Stochastic risk estimates are, like deterministic ones, just as good (or bad) as the available data, and the stochastic analysis must not be used to mask lack of information. Sensitivity analysis is a valuable tool in quantitative risk assessment by determining critical aspects and effects of variations.


    This risk assessment calculates the maximum loadings of constituents found in dyes and pigment industries waste streams which can be disposed in different types of waste management units without causing health benchmarks to be exceeded at plausible receptor locations. The assessment focuses on potential risks from volatilization and leaching to groundwater of constituents disposed in surface impoundments and landfills with either clay liners or composite liners. This product will be used by EPA decision makers to assist in determining whether certain waste streams generated by the dyes and pigments industries should be designated as hazardous.

  7. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea


    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. M. Gibalenko


    Full Text Available Purpose. The research is aimed at improving the quality and reliability of measures of primary and secondary protection of metal structures at manufacturing companies, to prolong the service life of cyclically loaded structures of production facilities taking into account the corrosion level of danger. Methodology. Authors proposed to use the principles of process approach for statement and realization of management problems of operational service life in corrosion environments. The principles of ensuring reliability on the level of corrosion danger include justification of stages sequence for survivability assessment of a structural metalwork based on the strategy of DMAIC (define, measure, analyze, improve, control: definitions, measurements, analysis, improvement and monitoring of measures of primary and secondary corrosion protection. Findings. Providing control measures from corrosion according to the criterion of corrosion danger allows providing requirements of reliability of structural metalwork based on calculated provisions of the limiting conditions method and solving the problems of management in technological safety during the expected service life of structural objects. Originality. The developed strategy of maintenance of the industrial facilities on an actual state includes the process approach to resource management by creation of system for the account and the functional controlling, risk analysis and regulation of technological safety in production facilities of the enterprises. Realization of the principles of process approach to management of technological safety at the object level is directed to perfecting of tools and methods of anticorrosive protection, extension of a resource taking into account indexes of survivability (, and justification of program measures to ensure the reliability of enterprises(PER. Practical value. On the basis of process approach to quality and reliability management, generalizations of the

  9. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products. (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L


    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  10. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment. (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G


    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  11. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.


    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  12. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel


    Full Text Available Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the 'German Research Network of Natural Disasters' (DFNK the working group 'Flood Risk Analysis' investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system. The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results

  13. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment. (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H


    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Evaluation of periodontal condition and risk in patients with chronic kidney disease on hemodialysis


    Kim, Yeon Jung; de Moura, Luciana Martins; Caldas, Christiane Peres; Perozini, Caroline; Ruivo,Gilson Fernandes; Pallos, Debora


    ABSTRACT Objective To establish a profile of periodontal conditions in chronic kidney disease patients on hemodialysis and their periodontal risk. Methods We included 115 patients on hemodialysis. Clinical periodontal parameters assessed were: plaque index, gingival index, probing depth and clinical attachment level. Patients were classified according to presence/absence and severity of periodontal disease and periodontal risk. Results In 107 dentate patients (93%) the plaque index was ...

  15. Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandberg, B.; Kjær, C.; Hindar, K.

    It was the aim of this NordTest project to propose improvements that prepare us to assess ecological risks to the environment associated with releases of existing and coming GMO cases. The report is separated into three sections. The first describes the frames of ecological risk assessment...... by answers to the following questions: 1) Are the abiotic conditions under which tests for environmental risk assessment have been conducted relevant for the northern settings? 2) Does the inserted traits alter the cold tolerance of the transgenic organism, and if so, is range expansion likely? 3...... of genetically modified plants. This chapter describes both the legislation within the EU and the state of the technology (existing and coming cases). Furthermore, a presentation of the ecological concerns discussed in the report, i.e. invasion, introgression and adverse effects on non-target organisms...

  16. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura


    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  17. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov


    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  18. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson


    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  19. Building caries risk assessment models for children. (United States)

    Gao, X-L; Hsu, C-Y S; Xu, Y; Hwarng, H B; Loh, T; Koh, D


    Despite the well-recognized importance of caries risk assessment, practical models remain to be established. This study was designed to develop biopsychosocial models for caries risk assessment in various settings. With a questionnaire, an oral examination, and biological (salivary, microbiological, and plaque pH) tests, a prospective study was conducted among 1782 children aged 3-6 years, with 1576 (88.4%) participants followed in 12 months. Multiple risk factors, indicators, and protective factors were identified. Various risk assessment models were constructed by the random selection of 50% of the cases and further validated in the remaining cases. For the prediction of a "one-year caries increment", screening models without biological tests achieved a sensitivity/specificity of 82%/73%; with biological tests, full-blown models achieved the sensitivity/specificity of 90%/90%. For identification of a quarter of the children with high caries burden (baseline dmft > 2), a community-screening model requiring only a questionnaire reached a sensitivity/specificity of 82%/81%. These models are promising tools for cost-effective caries control and evidence-based treatment planning. decayed, missing, filled teeth in primary dentition (dmft); receiver operation characteristics (ROC); relative risk (RR); confidence interval (CI); National Institutes of Health (NIH); World Health Organization (WHO); US Department of Health and Human Services (US/DHHS); American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry (AAPD).

  20. Jet reliability study Survey and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Esteban, G.


    Culham Center for Fusion Energy (CCFE) in UK has been contracted to undertake a second Deuterium-Tritium Experiment (DTE2) using Join European Torus (JET) in 2017, in support of technical developments for the ITER project. In order to manage risks of delay or early project termination CCFE has adopted a risk based inspection (RBI) process to identify the systems which could influence the successful delivery of DTE2 and in turn to identify by a basic risk assessment process those systems or components which require mitigating action in order to minimize risk. In this context, the primary purpose of the RBI is to address issues of reliability and satisfactory functionality in a similar way to that which a power plant operator would take to address its commercial risks in the event of loss of generating capacity. The objective of this presentation is describe the activities developed for Idom to deliver the survey, interviews and risk assessment of different systems of JET with the aim to identify the critical components and system that could affect the operation of JET during the DTE2 experiment. (Author)

  1. Health Risk Assessment for Organotins in Textiles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen PJCM; Veen MP van; Speijers GJA; CSR; LBM


    In January 1998 RIVM was asked to carry out a preliminary risk assessment on organic tin compounds (organotins) in textiles. Measurements carried out by the Dutch Health Protection Inspectorate had shown these potentially toxic compounds to be present in several consumer products, including items of

  2. Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment (United States)


    Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment extended periods could result in communications disruptions or congestion , if...function. Concern Threats to BGP and other interdomain router operating systems and intra-domain protocols are the primary vulnerabilities within the...facilities [C] Negatively affect ASN/IP block allocation [C] Impair Crisis response [C] Interdomain /Backbone connectivity impact [V] BGP [V

  3. Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    Sep 30, 2011 ... Key words: Risk assessment, biosafety, Malaysian Biosafety Act 2007, genetically modified organisms. (GMOs). INTRODUCTION. Nowadays, with ... from the early stages of genetic engineering, legal frameworks were set up to ensure the ..... Since the advances in gene technology have led to speculation ...

  4. Next generation of microbiological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den Heidy M.W.; Amézquita, Alejandro; Bover-Cid, Sara; Dagnas, Stéphane; Ellouze, Mariem; Guillou, Sandrine; Nychas, George; O'Mahony, Cian; Pérez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Membré, Jeanne Marie


    In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now


    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  6. Instrument Development for Nanomaterial Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brossell, D.


    Nanomaterials are a growing source for innovation. However, the very properties that make them so effective for their desired purpose might also render them more hazardous towards humans and the environment. Adequate risk assessment tools are often missing, partly due to instrumental gaps in

  7. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  8. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.


    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  9. exLOPA for explosion risks assessment. (United States)

    Markowski, Adam S


    The European Union regulations require safety and health protection of workers who are potentially at risk from explosive atmosphere areas. According to the requirements, the operators of installations where potentially explosive atmosphere can occur are obliged to produce an explosion protection document. The key objective of this document is the assessment of explosion risks. This paper is concerned with the so-called explosion layer of protection analysis (exLOPA), which allows for semi-quantitative explosion risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The exLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA but takes into account some typical factors appropriate for explosion, like the probability that an explosive atmosphere will occur, probability that sources of ignition will be present and become effective as well as the probability of failure on demand for appropriate explosion prevention and mitigation means.

  10. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records. (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri


    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  11. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen


    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  12. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, R.; Voet, van der H.; Braak, ter C.J.F.


    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We

  13. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand


    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  14. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G.; Bos, Peter M. J.


    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models. PMID:29048395

  15. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.


    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  16. [Influenza vaccination coverage in children with risk conditions in Catalonia]. (United States)

    González, Roser; Campins, Magda; Rodrigo, José Ángel; Uriona, Sonia; Vilca, Luz María


    Influenza vaccination is recommended in Catalonia in children older than 6 months with risk conditions for developing flu-related complications. The aim of this study is to determine influenza vaccine coverage in children with risk conditions and their association with socio-demographic factors and medical variables. Descriptive cross-sectional study of children with risk conditions for developing influenza complications (aged between 6months and 15years old) assigned to Primary Health Care centers in Catalonia at the beginning of the 2011-2012 influenza vaccination campaign. The information on vaccination status and study variables were obtained from data registered on electronic health records by primary care teams. The relationship between influenza vaccination and demographic and medical variables was analyzed using bivariate analysis and a multiple logistic regression model. Influenza vaccination coverage was 23.9%. Variables associated with influenza vaccination were: age 2years or older (aOR: 1.6 [1.4-1.7] in children 3-5years old; 1.8 [1.7-2.0] in those 6-10 years, and 2.2 [2.0 -2.4] in children ≥11years]); male sex (aOR: 1.1 [1.0-1.1]); foreign nationality (aOR: 1.2 [1.2-1.3]); age-appropriate immunization according to the systematic immunization schedule (aOR: 3.3 [2.8-3.8]); more than one visit to the primary care physician (5 or more visits) (aOR: 4.1 [3.8-4.4]), and more than one risk condition (3 or more conditions) (aOR: 2.5 [1.6-3.9]). Compared to other countries, influenza vaccination coverage among children with risk conditions is low in our study. Strategies to improve coverage should be implemented. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  17. Integrated ecological risk assessment of dioxin compounds. (United States)

    Sany, Seyedeh Belin Tavakoly; Hashim, Rosli; Rezayi, Majid; Rahman, Mohammad Azizur; Razavizadeh, Bi Bi Marzieh; Abouzari-lotf, Ebrahim; Karlen, David J


    Current ecological risk assessment (ERA) schemes focus mainly on bioaccumulation and toxicity of pollutants in individual organisms. Ecological models are tools mainly used to assess ecological risks of pollutants to ecosystems, communities, and populations. Their main advantage is the relatively direct integration of the species sensitivity to organic pollutants, the fate and mechanism of action in the environment of toxicants, and life-history features of the individual organism of concern. To promote scientific consensus on ERA schemes, this review is intended to provide a guideline on short-term ERA involving dioxin chemicals and to identify key findings for exposure assessment based on policies of different agencies. It also presents possible adverse effects of dioxins on ecosystems, toxicity equivalence methodology, environmental fate and transport modeling, and development of stressor-response profiles for dioxin-like chemicals.

  18. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko


    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  19. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part II: a methodological case study for pesticide risk assessment. (United States)

    Sørensen, Peter B; Giralt, Francesc; Rallo, Robert; Espinosa, Gabriela; Münier, Bernd; Gyldenkaerne, Steen; Thomsen, Marianne


    This paper illustrates, by a case study, how to apply the conceptual Worst-Case Definition (WCD) model, developed in the methodological paper in the current journal, by Sørensen et al. (2010-this issue). The case is about eco-toxicological risk assessment of pesticides under Danish conditions. Cumulative aspects are included on a conceptual basis as elements of the worst-case conditions. This defines factors that govern the risk assessment, including location in time and space of risk "hotspots". Two pillars of concern drive the conceptual modelling: (1) What to protect (denoted Protected Units (PUs)) and (2) the reason for increased risk level (denoted Causes of Risks (CRs)). Both PUs and CRs are analysed using hierarchical procedures that facilitate a complete listing of concrete factors governing increased risk for adverse effect due to agricultural usage of pesticide. The factors governing pesticide risk are combined in a context that combines the protection of relevant groupings of organisms with the factors for increased risk level for each of these. Identification of the most important relations between defined types of PUs and CRs is illustrated using expert knowledge. Existing databases are used to form spatial distributed risk indicators as estimators for a selection of important relations between PUs and CRs. This paper illustrates how the WCD model can break down the complex issue of uncertainty into fractions that are more open for evaluations. Finally, it shows application of risk indicators in a multi-criterion analysis using respectively self organizing mapping and partial order technique in a comparative analysis that highlights critical aspects of uncertainty, due to the ambiguity between single risk indicator rankings. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach. (United States)

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth


    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment (United States)

    Nickol, Craig L.


    A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  2. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Astronaut Post Flight Bone Fracture (United States)

    Lewandowski, Beth; Myers, Jerry; Licata, Angelo


    Introduction: Space flight potentially reduces the loading that bone can resist before fracture. This reduction in bone integrity may result from a combination of factors, the most common reported as reduction in astronaut BMD. Although evaluating the condition of bones continues to be a critical aspect of understanding space flight fracture risk, defining the loading regime, whether on earth, in microgravity, or in reduced gravity on a planetary surface, remains a significant component of estimating the fracture risks to astronauts. This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) to understanding pre-, post, and in mission astronaut bone fracture risk. The overview includes an assessment of contributing factors utilized in the BFxRM and illustrates how new information, such as biomechanics of space suit design or better understanding of post flight activities may influence astronaut fracture risk. Opportunities for the bone mineral research community to contribute to future model development are also discussed. Methods: To investigate the conditions in which spaceflight induced changes to bone plays a critical role in post-flight fracture probability, we implement a modified version of the NASA Bone Fracture Risk Model (BFxRM). Modifications included incorporation of variations in physiological characteristics, post-flight recovery rate, and variations in lateral fall conditions within the probabilistic simulation parameter space. The modeled fracture probability estimates for different loading scenarios at preflight and at 0 and 365 days post-flight time periods are compared. Results: For simple lateral side falls, mean post-flight fracture probability is elevated over mean preflight fracture probability due to spaceflight induced BMD loss and is not fully recovered at 365 days post-flight. In the case of more energetic falls, such as from elevated heights or with the addition of lateral movement

  3. Assessing calibration of prognostic risk scores. (United States)

    Crowson, Cynthia S; Atkinson, Elizabeth J; Therneau, Terry M


    Current methods used to assess calibration are limited, particularly in the assessment of prognostic models. Methods for testing and visualizing calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration slope) have been well thought out in the binary regression setting. However, extension of these methods to Cox models is less well known and could be improved. We describe a model-based framework for the assessment of calibration in the binary setting that provides natural extensions to the survival data setting. We show that Poisson regression models can be used to easily assess calibration in prognostic models. In addition, we show that a calibration test suggested for use in survival data has poor performance. Finally, we apply these methods to the problem of external validation of a risk score developed for the general population when assessed in a special patient population (i.e. patients with particular comorbidities, such as rheumatoid arthritis). © The Author(s) 2013.

  4. Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment: Overview of Exposure Assessment, Whole Mixtures Assessments; Basic Concepts (United States)

    This problems-based, half-day, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks f...

  5. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh


    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  6. Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.


    to March) precipitation, the number of days with maximum temperature between 24°C and 28°C and the number of days of May with minimum temperature below 0°C is able to model the chestnut productivity with r2 equal to 0.79. It should be pointed out that the relation between weather/climate and chestnut productivity may change over time. Finally, it is important to express objectively the effects of temperature and precipitation extremes on the chestnut productivity since temperature is one of the global circulation models predicted variables with less uncertainty. With these tools will be possible to assess the weather related risk on chestnut production as well as infer about evolution of the adequate conditions to the chestnut trees in the actual plantations and about the expansion of this specie. Bounous, G. (2002) "Il castagno" [Chestnut.] - Edagricole, Bologna. [In Ital.] Gomes-Laranjo, J., Coutinho, J.P., Ferreira-Cardoso, J., Pimentel-Pereira, M., Ramos, C., Torres-Pereira, J.(2005) "Assessment to a new concept of chestnut orchard management in vegetative wall.". Acta Hort. 693: 707-712. Gomes-Laranjo, J.C.E., Peixoto, F., Wong Fong Sang, H.W., Torres-Pereira, J.M.G.(2006) "Study of the temperature effect in three chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivars' behavior". J. Plant Physiol. 163: 945-955.

  7. Biostatistics series module 8: Assessing risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avijit Hazra


    Full Text Available In observational studies, as well as in interventional ones, it is frequently necessary to estimate risk that is the association between an observed outcome or event and exposure to one or more factors that may be contributing to the event. Understanding incidence and prevalence are the starting point in any discussion of risk assessment. Incidence rate uses person-time as the denominator rather than a simple count. Ideally, rates and ratios estimated from samples should be presented with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs. To assess the importance of an individual risk factor, it is necessary to compare the risk of the outcome in the exposed group with that in the nonexposed group. A comparison between risks in different groups can be made by examining either their ratio or the difference between them. The 2 × 2 contingency table comes in handy in the calculation of ratios. Odds ratio (OR is the ratio of the odds of an event in the exposed group, to the odds of the same event in the nonexposed group. It can range from zero to infinity. When the odds of an outcome in the two groups are identical, then the OR equals one. OR >1 indicates exposure increases risk while OR <1 indicates that exposure is protecting against risk. The OR should be presented with its 95% CI to enable more meaningful interpretation – if this interval includes 1, then even a relatively large OR will not carry much weight. The relative risk (RR denotes the ratio of risk (probability of event in exposed group to risk of same event in the nonexposed group. Its interpretation is similar (but not identical to the OR. If the event in question is relatively uncommon, values of OR and RR tend to be similar. Absolute risk reduction (ARR is a measure of the effectiveness of an intervention with respect to a dichotomous event. It is calculated as proportion experiencing the event in control group minus the proportion experiencing the event in treated group. It is

  8. Aquatic risk assessment of pesticides in Latin America. (United States)

    Carriquiriborde, Pedro; Mirabella, Paula; Waichman, Andrea; Solomon, Keith; Van den Brink, Paul J; Maund, Steve


    Latin America is anticipated to be a major growth market for agriculture and production is increasing with use of technologies such as pesticides. Reports of contamination of aquatic ecosystems by pesticides in Latin America have raised concerns about potential for adverse ecological effects. In the registration process of pesticides, all countries require significant data packages on aquatic toxicology and environmental fate. However, there are usually no specific requirements to conduct an aquatic risk assessment. To address this issue, the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry organized a workshop that brought together scientists from academia, government, and industry to review and elaborate on aquatic risk assessment frameworks that can be implemented into regulation of pesticides in Latin America. The workshop concluded that the international framework for risk assessments (protection goals, effects, and exposure assessments, risk characterization, and risk mitigation) is broadly applicable in Latin America but needs further refinement for the use in the region. Some of the challenges associated with these refinements are discussed in the article. It was recognized that there is potential for data sharing both within and outside of the region where conditions are similar. However, there is a need for research to compare local species and environmental conditions to those in other jurisdictions to be able to evaluate the applicability of data used in other countries. Development should also focus on human resources as there is a need to build local capacity and capability, and scientific collaboration and exchange between stakeholders in industry, government, and academia is also important. The meeting also emphasized that, although establishing a regionally relevant risk assessment framework is important, this also needs to be accompanied by enforcement of developed regulations and good management practices to help protect aquatic habitats

  9. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model (United States)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi


    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  10. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases. (United States)

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck


    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database ( provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET ( Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  11. Assessing risks of hydrocarbon spills in tropical environments (United States)

    Makarynskyy, Oleg; Makarynska, Dina; Negri, Andrew


    There is a growing pressure of exposure to petroleum hydrocarbons in tropical northern Australia. This is due to increasing population and industrial activities, such as oil and gas extraction, ship traffic, and related planned (e.g. wastewater) and accidental (e.g. spills) discharges. Through close collaboration between AIMS and AECOM, a novel, integrated approach to spill risk assessments has been developed. The approach links outcomes of a semi-quantitative risk assessment methodology to results of spill weathering and trajectory numerical modelling and to emerging tropical toxicological data. The risk assessment is based on triple bottom line concept and uses a multi-disciplinary expert panel to assess the probabilities and consequential impacts associated with potential risk events, such as accidental hydrocarbon spills. The probability assessments of spills are based on the type of operations being assessed and historical spill data available for the area and region. Quantifying the impacts of hydrocarbon spills requires an understanding of the impact extents as well as of the sensitivity of relevant tropical species to both hydrocarbons and dispersants. The quantification of impacts for certain operations and areas may only rely on the known nature of hydrocarbons, while spill volumes and extents of slick propagation are highly variable. Critical ecotoxicity data for tropical environments are scarce. Consequentially, assessments of probabilities and impacts may differ dramatically depending on the ambient conditions taken into consideration, level of understanding of properties of spilled hydrocarbon, and numerical models and techniques employed for simulating oil weathering and slick trajectories and thicknesses, as well as the available ecotoxicology thresholds of affected species. The outcomes of the combined risk and impact assessments for the first time provide industry and regulators with advanced pre-spill information thus vastly improving the

  12. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl


    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  13. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management? (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim


    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  14. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil


    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  15. Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-Entry (United States)

    Lips, T.; Koppenwallner, G.; Bianchi, L.; Klinkrad, H.


    From 2007 to 2008, Hypersonic Technology Göttingen (HTG) worked on a study called Risk Assessment for Destructive Re-entry (RADR). The main purposes of this study were to identify and to quantify the inherent uncertainties of re-entry analysis tools, and to provide possible risk mitigation measures. For these purposes, three basic risk scenarios were specified: a 1-ton-class satellite without propulsion for uncontrolled re-entry, a 6-ton-class satellite with propulsion and the capability to perform a controlled re-entry, and a 1-ton-class launcher upper stage re-entering uncontrolled. Based on the identified uncertainty parameters, variation analyses were conducted for these scenarios with the two ESA tools for re-entry analysis SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Reentry and Aerothermal Breakup) and SESAM (Spacecraft Entry Survival Analysis Module). This paper describes the major results of the RADR study.

  16. Degraded Environments Alter Prey Risk Assessment (United States)

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P


    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment. PMID:23403754


    Caporossi, Lidia; Papaleo, Bruno; Capanna, Silvia; Calicchia, Sara; Marcellini, Laura; De Rosa, Mariangela; Castellano, Paola


    The aim of this study was to compare the different approaches used for chemical risk assessment, in relation to the perception of riskfor operators, in some research laboratories of a hospital in Rome. All information regarding the chemicals used for the application of three algorithmic models for chemical risk assessment ("Movarisch", "Inforisk", "Archimede") were collected. An environmental and biological monitoring and a study on the combined exposure to multiple chemicals using the World Health Organization proposed steps were carried out. A questionnaire was prepared for the identification of risk perception. An estimation of chemical risk with algorithms was compared with data from monitoring: findings showed that estimated risk was higher than those identified with airborne or urine concentrations, always under their limit values. The study of multiple exposure showed a possible cumulative risk, in some cases, but the conditions of use (volume and time) often bring to a reduced one. The perception of risk attributed to the monitored hazardous substances showed a correct perception in all laboratories and for all workers, with regard to the substances manipulated.

  18. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.


    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  19. Assessing glacial lake outburst flood risk (United States)

    Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Cook, Simon; Jomelli, Vincent; Clarke, Leon; Symeonakis, Elias


    Glaciers across the world are thinning and receding in response to atmospheric warming. Glaciers tend to erode subglacial basins and deposit eroded materials around their margins as lateral-frontal terminal moraines. Recession into these basins and behind impounding moraines causes meltwater to pond as proglacial and supraglacial lakes. Consequently, there has been a general trend of increasing number and size of these lakes associated with glacier melting in many mountainous regions around the globe, in the last 30 years. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) then may occur where the glacial lake dam (ice, rock, moraine, or combination thereof) is breached, or overtopped, and thousands of people have lost their lives to such events in the last few decades, especially in the Andes and in the Himalaya. Given the ongoing and arguably increasing risk posed to downstream communities, and infrastructure, there has been a proliferation of GLOF studies, with many seeking to estimate GLOF hazard or risk in specific regions, or to identify 'potentially dangerous glacial lakes'. Given the increased scientific interest in GLOFs, it is timely to evaluate critically the ways in which GLOF risk has been assessed previously, and whether there are improvements that can be made to the ways in which risk assessment is achieved. We argue that, whilst existing GLOF hazard and risk assessments have been extremely valuable they often suffer from a number of key shortcomings that can be addressed by using different techniques as multi-criteria decision analysis and hydraulic modelling borrowed from disciplines like engineering, remote sensing and operations research.

  20. Robust and Efficient Boosting Method Using the Conditional Risk. (United States)

    Xiao, Zhi; Luo, Zhe; Zhong, Bo; Dang, Xin


    Well known for its simplicity and effectiveness in classification, AdaBoost, however, suffers from overfitting when class-conditional distributions have significant overlap. Moreover, it is very sensitive to noise that appears in the labels. This paper tackles the above limitations simultaneously via optimizing a modified loss function (i.e., the conditional risk). The proposed approach has the following two advantages. First, it is able to directly take into account label uncertainty with an associated label confidence. Second, it introduces a trustworthiness measure on training samples via the Bayesian risk rule, and hence the resulting classifier tends to have finite sample performance that is superior to that of the original AdaBoost when there is a large overlap between class conditional distributions. Theoretical properties of the proposed method are investigated. Extensive experimental results using synthetic data and real-world data sets from UCI machine learning repository are provided. The empirical study shows the high competitiveness of the proposed method in predication accuracy and robustness when compared with the original AdaBoost and several existing robust AdaBoost algorithms.

  1. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice


    Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Kelly, S.


    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for th...

  2. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition. (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie


    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  3. Common practices in assessing conditions of concrete bridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alsharqawi Mohammed


    Full Text Available Bridge condition assessment is an essential step in bridge management. To ensure safety and serviceability of bridge infrastructure, accurate condition assessment is needed to provide basis for bridge Maintenance, Repair, and Replacement (MRR decisions. In Canada and the United States, visual inspection is the common practice to evaluate a bridge condition. Meanwhile, this practice is limited to detect surface defects and external flaws. For subsurface defects, Non-Destructive Testing and Evaluation (NDT&E technologies are being used to supplement visual inspection. This paper reviews the common practices in assessing concrete bridges’ conditions and discusses the limitations of available condition assessment models. Further, this research studies six NDT&E techniques and establishes a set of selection criteria which is utilized to compare each technique in terms of providing the best inspection results. Based on the comparison, it is found that Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR appears to be the most appropriate NDT&E techniques for inspection of concrete bridges. Thus, this paper recommends integrating GPR technology with the dominant visual inspection practice in order to establish a more accurate overall bridge condition rating system where surface and subsurface defects are assessed.

  4. Cryptogenic Stroke and Patent Foramen Ovale Risk Assessment. (United States)

    Melkumova, Emiliya; Thaler, David E


    Stroke is a devastating condition. It is the fifth leading cause of death in the United States, and a leading cause of serious long-term disability. Stroke occurs at any age. Younger patients tend to have strokes of undetermined cause, termed cryptogenic. Herein, the authors describe the classification of stroke cause; the risk of recurrent cryptogenic stroke with patent foramen ovale (PFO); a risk assessment model to stratify incidental versus a pathogenic PFO in patients presenting with stroke; and patient selection for device occluder therapy in the context of the long-term follow-up of the RESPECT randomized clinical trial. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Quantum chemistry in environmental pesticide risk assessment. (United States)

    Villaverde, Juan J; López-Goti, Carmen; Alcamí, Manuel; Lamsabhi, Al Mokhtar; Alonso-Prados, José L; Sandín-España, Pilar


    The scientific community and regulatory bodies worldwide, currently promote the development of non-experimental tests that produce reliable data for pesticide risk assessment. The use of standard quantum chemistry methods could allow the development of tools to perform a first screening of compounds to be considered for the experimental studies, improving the risk assessment. This fact results in a better distribution of resources and in better planning, allowing a more exhaustive study of the pesticides and their metabolic products. The current paper explores the potential of quantum chemistry in modelling toxicity and environmental behaviour of pesticides and their by-products by using electronic descriptors obtained computationally. Quantum chemistry has potential to estimate the physico-chemical properties of pesticides, including certain chemical reaction mechanisms and their degradation pathways, allowing modelling of the environmental behaviour of both pesticides and their by-products. In this sense, theoretical methods can contribute to performing a more focused risk assessment of pesticides used in the market, and may lead to higher quality and safer agricultural products. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  6. Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa


    Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

  7. Safety conditions of steam boilers in companies associated with a professional risk administration company in Antioquia, 2009


    Diego L. Sepúlveda M; Jairo Ramírez G


    Objective: to determine the safety conditions of steam boilers in companies associated with a professional risk administra-tion company in Antioquia, Colombia. To this end, their op-eration conditions shall be characterized, the associated risks identified, and their safety level assessed. Methodology:. a descriptive crosssectional study was carried out in twenty companies whose production processes involve boilers. A survey on the conditions for operation was applied on both the maintena...

  8. Variance swap payoffs, risk premia and extreme market conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco

    This paper estimates the Variance Risk Premium (VRP) directly from synthetic variance swap payoffs. Since variance swap payoffs are highly volatile, we extract the VRP by using signal extraction techniques based on a state-space representation of our model in combination with a simple economic...... constraint. Our approach, only requiring option implied volatilities and daily returns for the underlying, provides measurement error free estimates of the part of the VRP related to normal market conditions, and allows constructing variables indicating agents' expectations under extreme market conditions....... The latter variables and the VRP generate different return predictability on the major US indices. A factor model is proposed to extract a market VRP which turns out to be priced when considering Fama and French portfolios....

  9. Cardiovascular risk assessment in Italy: the CUORE Project risk score and risk chart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Giampaoli


    Full Text Available

    Aim: Risk charts and risk score, based on the global absolute risk, are key tools for CVD risk assessment. When applied to the population from which they derive, they provide the best estimate of CVD risk. That is why the CUORE Project has among its objectives the assessment of the Italian population’s cardiovascular risk, identifying the model for the prediction of coronary and cerebrovascular events in 10 years.

    Methods: Data fromdifferent cohorts enrolled in the North, Centre and South of Italy between the 1980s and the 1990s were used. From the 7,056 men and 12,574 women aged 35-69 years, free of cardiovascular disease at base-line and followed up for a mean time of 10 years for total and cause-specific mortality and non fatal cerebrovascular and coronary events, 894 major cardiovascular events (596 coronary and 298 cerebrovascular were identified and validated. To assess 10-year cardiovascular risk, the risk score and risk chart were developed for men and women separately, considering the first major coronary or cerebrovascular event as the endpoint.

    Results: The risk score is applied tomen andwomen aged 35-69 years and includes age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, smoking habit, diabetes and hypertension treatment using continuous values when possible. The risk chart is applied to persons aged 40-69 years and includes the same risk factors as risk score, except for HDL-cholesterol and hypertension treatment, and uses categorical values for all variables.

    Conclusions: The risk score and risk chart are easy-to-use tools which enable general practitioners and specialists to achieve an objective evaluation of the absolute global cardiovascular risk of middle-aged persons in primary prevention.

  10. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.


    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  11. Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)


    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO2-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

  12. Threshold exceedance risk assessment in complex space-time systems (United States)

    Angulo, José M.; Madrid, Ana E.; Romero, José L.


    Environmental and health impact risk assessment studies most often involve analysis and characterization of complex spatio-temporal dynamics. Recent developments in this context are addressed, among other objectives, to proper representation of structural heterogeneities, heavy-tailed processes, long-range dependence, intermittency, scaling behavior, etc. Extremal behaviour related to spatial threshold exceedances can be described in terms of geometrical characteristics and distribution patterns of excursion sets, which are the basis for construction of risk-related quantities, such as in the case of evolutionary study of 'hotspots' and long-term indicators of occurrence of extremal episodes. Derivation of flexible techniques, suitable for both the application under general conditions and the interpretation on singularities, is important for practice. Modern risk theory, a developing discipline motivated by the need to establish solid general mathematical-probabilistic foundations for rigorous definition and characterization of risk measures, has led to the introduction of a variety of classes and families, ranging from some conceptually inspired by specific fields of applications, to some intended to provide generality and flexibility to risk analysts under parametric specifications, etc. Quantile-based risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), Average Value-at-Risk (AVaR), and generalization to spectral measures, are of particular interest for assessment under very general conditions. In this work, we study the application of quantile-based risk measures in the spatio-temporal context in relation to certain geometrical characteristics of spatial threshold exceedance sets. In particular, we establish a closed-form relationship between VaR, AVaR, and the expected value of threshold exceedance areas and excess volumes. Conditional simulation allows us, by means of empirical global and local spatial cumulative distributions, the derivation of various statistics of

  13. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals... (United States)


    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments of...

  14. Assessment of Primitive Reflexes in High-risk Newborns. (United States)

    Sohn, Min; Ahn, Youngmee; Lee, Sangmi


    Assessment of primitive reflexes is one of the earliest, simplest, and most frequently used assessment tools among health care providers for newborns and young infants. However, very few data exist for high-risk infants in this topic. Among the various primitive reflexes, this study was undertaken particularly to describe the sucking, Babinski and Moro reflexes in high-risk newborns and to explore their relationships with clinical variables. This study is a cross-sectional descriptive study. Sixty seven high-risk newborns including full-term infants required intensive care as well as premature infants were recruited in a neonatal intensive care unit using convenient sampling method. The sucking, Babinski and Moro reflexes were assessed and classified by normal, abnormal and absence. To explore their relationships with clinical variables, birth-related variables, brain sonogram results, and behavioral state (the Anderson Behavioral State Scale, ABSS) and mental status (the Infant Coma Scale, ICS) were assessed. The sucking reflex presented a normal response most frequently (63.5%), followed by Babinski reflex (58.7%) and Moro reflex (42.9%). Newborns who presented normal sucking and Babinski reflex responses were more likely to have older gestational age, heavier birth and current weight, higher Apgar scores, shorter length of hospitalization, better respiratory conditions, and better mental status assessed by ICS, but not with Moro reflex. High risk newborns presented more frequent abnormal and absence responses of primitive reflex and the proportions of the responses varied by reflex. Further researches are necessary in exploring diverse aspects of primitive reflexes and revealing their clinical implication in the high-risk newborns that are unique and different to normal healthy newborns. Primitive reflex; High risk infants; Korean; Moro reflex; Sucking reflex; Babinski reflex; The Anderson Behavioral State Scale; Infant Coma Scale.

  15. Karst risk assessment for engineering in Nizhny Novgorod region, Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tolmachev Vladimir


    Full Text Available Federal Standards of the Russian include the requirement of mandatory assessment of the risks induced by natural processes in order to make sure their values do not exceed acceptable limits. To meet the requirement a number of karst risk assessment methods have been developed for the regions of the country where the most significant hazard is presented by karst sinkholes. For this particular application karst risk is understood as specific probability of sinkhole development on a unit area per a unit time span with account of probable economic, social and environmental components of damage. The probability of sinkhole development is evaluated by specialists in engineering karstology and designers. They make use of the acceptable data on the environmental conditions and apply stochastic laws of sinkhole development in time and space, alongside with focusing on all other relevant specificity of the building or facility to be built. Acceptable limits of karst risks should be specified by a multidisciplinary team including designers, lawyers, economists, insurers, environmentalists, engineering karstologists and other specialists on the basis of their expert knowledge. It has been demonstrated that a ratio between predicted and acceptable karst risk values can serve a practically meaningful karst risk level indicator for the purposes of building on karst. This ratio can be used with a rather high degree of objectiveness to develop a programme of antikarst activities during both facilities construction and operation.

  16. Risk assessment in neonatal early onset sepsis. (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Sagori; Puopolo, Karen M


    The incidence of neonatal early onset sepsis has declined with the widespread use of intrapartum antibiotic therapies, yet early onset sepsis remains a potentially fatal condition, particularly among very low birth-weight infants. Clinical signs of neonatal infection are nonspecific and may be absent in the immediate postnatal period. Maternal and infant clinical characteristics, as well as infant laboratory values, have been used to identify newborns at risk and to administer empiric antibiotic therapy to prevent progression to more severe illness. Such approaches result in the evaluation of approximately 15% of asymptomatic term and late preterm infants and of nearly all preterm infants. The development of multivariate predictive models may provide more accurate methods of identifying newborns at highest risk and allow for more limited newborn antibiotic exposures. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance: Risk Designation and Caries Status in Children under Age 6. (United States)

    Chaffee, Benjamin W; Featherstone, John D B; Gansky, Stuart A; Cheng, Jing; Zhan, Ling


    Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children under age 6-years. Assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers' decision-making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially ages 6-72 months at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (N=3810 baseline; N=1315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but one risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers' caries-risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%), moderate (30.6%), to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and one risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items were independently associated with

  18. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perella, V.F.


    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  19. Risk-Based Assessment of Structural Robustness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana-Mihaela Ioniţă


    Full Text Available Providing safety of structures is one of the main aims of design. In traditional design it is achieved by designing structural components against specified limit states. However, as showed the Ronan Point collapse in UK in 1968, when a gas explosion in one of flats on the 18-th floor of the residential building caused the failure of an entire section of the building, this approach is not sufficient. The approach does not exclude the risk of local damage to a structure due to accidental events that can occur during service life of the structure. While probability of occurrence of such events for ordinary structures is low, and, therefore, they are not considered explicitly in design, their effect on structural safety becomes significant if the structure is not robust, that is when some local damage can trigger a chain reaction of failures causing collapse of the whole structure or of a major part of it, the so called progressive collapse. The purpose of this paper is to outline the basic premises for the utilization of risk assessment in evaluating the robustness of structures. In the following the robustness assessment is understood as a process of decision making based on risks.

  20. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis. (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson


    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  1. Information Security Risk Assessment in Hospitals. (United States)

    Ayatollahi, Haleh; Shagerdi, Ghazal


    To date, many efforts have been made to classify information security threats, especially in the healthcare area. However, there are still many unknown risks which may threat the security of health information and their resources especially in the hospitals. The aim of this study was to assess the risks threatening information security in the hospitals located in one of the northwest cities of Iran. This study was completed in 2014. The participants were information technology managers who worked in the hospitals (n=27). The research instrument was a questionnaire composed of a number of open and closed questions. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed, and the reliability of the closed questions was measured by using the test-retest method (r =0.78). The results showed that among the information security risks, fire found to be a high probability/high impact risk factor. Human and physical/environmental threats were among the low probability risk factors. Regarding the information security safeguards used in the hospitals, the results showed that the use of the technical safeguards was the most frequent one (n =22, 91.7%) compared to the administrative (n =21, 87.5%) and the physical safeguards (n =16, 66.7%). The high probability risk factors require quick corrective actions to be taken. Therefore, the underlying causes of such threats should be identified and controlled before experiencing adverse effects. It is also important to note that information security in health care systems needs to be considered at a macro level with respect to the national interests and policies.

  2. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T


    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  3. Risk assessment methodology for the forniture industrial sector


    Rodrigues, Matilde A.


    Companies need to constantly make decisions about risk. They need to decide if a certain risk level is low enough or if some measures for its reduction are still needed. In this regard, risk assessment appears as a basis for the decision-making about risks. However, risk acceptance is an important issue related to the risk assessment process, which may put into question its appropriateness. Despite the importance of risk acceptance, this subject is insufficiently discussed in the literature r...

  4. Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Babu Pazhayattil


    Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.

  5. Disaster risk assessment at Roburnia Plantation, Mpumalanga, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudzani A. Makhado


    Full Text Available This study reports about disaster risk assessment undertaken at Roburnia Plantation, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were followed to collect data. A total of eight experienced foresters and fire fighters were purposively sampled for interview at Roburnia Plantation. A questionnaire survey was also used to collect the data. Risk levels were quantified using the risks equations of Wisner et al. (2004 and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR 2002. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Analysis of variance (ANOVA, single factor was also applied. This study found that Roburnia Plantation is highly exposed to fire risks. The mean (± s.d. output from the Wisner risk equation shows that fire is the highest risk at 7.7 ± 0.3, followed by harsh weather conditions at 5.6 ± 0.4 and least by tree diseases, pests and pathogens at 2.3 ± 0.2. Similarly, the mean (± s.d. output from the UNISDR risk equation also shows that fire is the highest risk at 2.9 ± 0.2, followed by harsh weather conditions at 2.2 ± 0.3 and least by tree diseases, pests and pathogens at 1.3 ± 0.2. There was no significant deference in the risk analysis outputs (p = 0.13. This study also found that the number of fire incidents were low during summer, but increased during winter and spring. This variation is mainly due to a converse relationship with rainfall, because the availability of rain moistens the area as well as the fuel. When the area and fuel is moist, fire incidents are reduced, but they increase with a decrease in fuel moisture.

  6. Cardiotocography (CTG as the screening method of fetal condition assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Zulčić-Nakić


    Full Text Available A basic function of fetal monitoring is an analysis of fetal cardiac action. Cardiotocography (CTG cannot provide all necessary information for assessment of the fetal condition as it is not sufficiently reliable and gives a large number of false positive results that increase the number of cesarean sections. An objective of this work was to establish CTG reliability as a method for assessment of intrapartal fetal condition. Based on CTG parameters (baseline fetal heart rate, fetal heart rate variability, oscillations and decelerations 100 pathological CTG records, collected at Obstetrics and Gynecology Department of the Tuzla University Clinic Hospital from 01.12.2004 to 05.08.2005 were identified. Using binomial distribution they were classified as non-pathological (indicating absence of asphyxia and pathological (indicating possible presence of asphyxia. After the delivery the condition of newborns was assessed according to the Apgar score. Based on comparison between certain pathological parametres of CTG records and newborns’ conditions at birth the results indicated high positive predictive values whereas sensitivity and accuracy were low. Apgar score 1. from 7 upwards was given to 96 (96% newborns whereas Apgar score 2 from 7 upwards was given to all the newborns with previous pathological CTG records. Results have confirmed that CTG can be used only as a screening method for assessment of intrapartal fetal condition.

  7. Risk Assessment Report, Davis Global Communications Site (United States)


    methiocarb . All of the contaminants detected in the production well were evaluated as COPCs in the risk assessment, with the exception of methiocarb ... Methiocarb (Mesurol, produced by Mobay Contaminant Corp.) is a moderately toxic carbamate pesticide used principally as a bird repellant in fruit and...6.7 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 2 2.95 3.71 3 1,1-Dichloroethene 27 0.2 3.0 Ethylene dibromide 2 1.407 2.3 3 Freon 113 45 1.3 14.1 Methiocarb 1 -- 50.0 3 Methyl

  8. Dermal exposure and risk assessment of tebuconazole applicators in vineyards. (United States)

    Mandic-Rajcevic, Stefan; Rubino, Federico Maria; Vianello, Giorgio; Fugnoli, Lorenzo; Polledri, Elisa; Mercadante, Rosa; Moretto, Angelo; Fustinoni, Silvia; Colosio, Claudio


    Models used in the pre-marketing evaluation do not cover all work scenarios and may over- or underestimate exposure. Uncertainties present in the extrapolation from pre-marketing to the post-marketing warrant exposure and risk assessment in real-life working conditions. Seven vineyard pesticide applicators were followed for a total of 12 work-days. A data collection sheet was developed specifically for this study. Workers' body exposure, hands, and head exposure were measured. Tebuconazole was analyzed using LC-MS/MS. Median potential and actual body exposures were 22.41 mg/kg and 0.49 mg/kg of active substance applied, respectively. The median protection factor provided by the coverall was 98% (range: 90-99%). Hand exposure was responsible for 61% of total actual exposure, and was reduced by more than 50% in workers using gloves. The German Model underestimated the exposure in one work-day, and grossly overestimated it in 3 work-days. High levels of potential body exposure were efficiently controlled by the cotton coverall. Use of personal protective devices, especially chemically-resistant gloves and head cover is the main determinant of skin protection. Field studies on pesticide exposure in real-life conditions and development of methods and tools for easier risk assessment are necessary to complement and confirm the risk assessment done in the authorization process.

  9. Risk assessment and risk management for safe foods: Assessment needs inclusion of variability and uncertainty, management needs discrete decisions. (United States)

    Zwietering, M H


    The introduction of relevant food safety changes in legislation, like time-temperature criteria for pasteurisation and sterilisation, microbiological criteria, HACCP and FSOs, generally took several decades. All these approaches have helped to define specific targets or systems to improve the management of food safety. More and more the measures could be related to specific efficiency in public health protection. With the use of quantitative risk assessment, theoretically the effect of all interventions on the final risk can be determined, which can help to design the appropriate controls in the food safety management system. In such an assessment in practice, however results have understandably large variability and also uncertainty. There is large variability and uncertainty in the biological parts of the assessment, the dose response (infectivity, human susceptibility) the micro-organism kinetics in the chain (growth, inactivation, stress response) and also in the more technological parts, the conditions in the chain and the consumer behaviour. Often the results of risk assessments are probability distributions of the variability in illness probability, also sometimes represented with their uncertainty. To make a link from these distributions to managerial decisions, that need to be black and white, should not be considered the job of risk managers. This link needs investment from both the assessor and the manager. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk assessment, risk management, and prevention of acute vascular events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gundu H R Rao


    Full Text Available South Asians have a very high incidence of cardiometabolic diseases such as hypertension, central abdominal obesity, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and stroke. In spite of the fact that common risk factors associated with these clinical conditions are known, we do not have point-of-care assays, to monitor the disease of the vessels, and the efficacy of antiplatelet therapy. We have a window of opportunity to develop three-dimensional ultrasound methodologies, to monitor the subclinical atherosclerosis, altered flow velocities of regional vascular beds, as well as plaque progression and regression in the major vessels. We also have opportunities to develop state-of-the-art methodologies for monitoring the efficacy or otherwise of antiplatelet therapies. In this overview, we share our views and strategies for the development of affordable medical technologies in India, for monitoring vessel wall pathology as well as for better management of antiplatelet therapies.

  11. Scientific risk assessment and the regulation of human cancer risks: background and new directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnard, R.C.


    I consider the importance of scientific risk assessment as optimal basis for socially sound risk management decisions. The health professional has both risk assessment and risk management responsibilities; the functions are conceptually separate and governed by separate criteria: scientific for risk assessment and social for risk management. The history of the development of regulating risk assessment methodology with particular reference to potential carcinogens is discussed. The scientific basis for possible improvements in risk assessment methodology for potential carcinogens is identified and the significance of the potential improvements is considered with special reference to the health professional.

  12. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  13. Occupational psychosocial risk factors: methods and assessment tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor H. Charria O


    Full Text Available Objective: This review’s aim is to analyze the basic conditions required for the assessment of occupational psychosocial risk factors within organizational contexts. Methodology: the review incorporates the main concepts that have been used to identify the causes of occupational stress, emphasizing the Demand – Control and the Effort – Reward – Imbalance models. Results: the authors show some methodologies and instruments that have exhibited high reliability for identifying psychosocial factors in different organizational contexts in different countries. Likewise, they highlight the case of Colombia; a country which, despite having few validated instruments, shows significant advance in this regard after the birth of resolution 2646 of 2008 and the construction of the battery of instruments for the assessment of Psychosocial Risk Factors by the Ministry of the Social Protection in 2010.

  14. Risk assessment for safety laboratories in Politeknik Negeri Medan (United States)

    Viyata Sundawa, Bakti; Hutajulu, Elferida; Sirait, Regina; Banurea, Waldemar; Indrayadi; Mulyadi, Sangap


    International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated 2.34 million people die each year because accidents and diseases in workplace. It also impact to economic losses in some countries. It need to do safety and healthy in working environment especially in laboratory. Identification of potential hazards and risks must be done in Telecommunication Laboratory Politeknik Negeri Medan. Therefore, this study was assessed 5 of potential hazards and risks in our laboratory by Likert Scale. This object was divided into 2 assessment namely likelihood of hazards and severity of consequences. Collecting data is taken from questionnaire who involved 100 students at random academic level. The result showed The highest score is chemical hazards 73.2% in likelihood of hazards and electrical hazards 85% in severity of consequences. This condition is classified as “high” state. Big attention must be given to “high” state because it can help us to determine mitigate action.

  15. Assessing and monitoring rangeland condition in extensive pastoral ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Describes the use of satellite remote sensing and GIS techniques in applying a localized range condition assessment methodology based on fence-line contrasts. The approach was to compute six dissimilarity indices for data on vegetation cover and composition from paired, site-specific surveys across farm boundaries.

  16. A laboratory assessment of various treatment conditions affecting ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A laboratory assessment of various treatment conditions affecting the ammoniation of wheat straw ... levels of 250 and 375 g/kg wheat straw and treatment periods of 0;. 1; 2; 4; 6 and 8 weeks. Dependent variables .... Individual samples were sealed airtightly in 2 000 ml plastic containers. Subsequently the urea included in ...


    Macauley, John, Hector A. Vasquez, George Craven and P. Thomas Heitmuller. In press. Assessing the Ecological Condition of Veracruz, Mexico Estuaries (Abstract). To be presented at the EPA Science Forum: Healthy Communities and Ecosystems, 1-3 June 2004, Washington, DC. 1 p. (ERL...

  18. Structural condition assessment of in-service wood (United States)

    Robert J. Ross; Brian K. Brashaw; Xiping Wang


    Wood is used extensively for both interior and exterior applications in the construction of a variety of structures (residential, agricultural, commercial, government, religious). The deterioration of an in-service wood member may result from a variety of causes during the life of a structure. It is important, therefore, to periodically assess the condition of wood...

  19. A comparison of some range condition assessment techniques used ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Techniques currently used to assess range condition in the grassland biome of Southern Africa are reviewed. These indices were then used to evaluate each method in terms of sensitivity, index interpretation and efficiency, bearing in mind the objectives of each technique. The weighted key species method and ...

  20. Improving online risk assessment with equipment prognostics and health monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coble, Jamie B.; Liu, Xiaotong; Briere, Chris; Ramuhalli, Pradeep


    The current approach to evaluating the risk of nuclear power plant (NPP) operation relies on static probabilities of component failure, which are based on industry experience with the existing fleet of nominally similar light water reactors (LWRs). As the nuclear industry looks to advanced reactor designs that feature non-light water coolants (e.g., liquid metal, high temperature gas, molten salt), this operating history is not available. Many advanced reactor designs use advanced components, such as electromagnetic pumps, that have not been used in the US commercial nuclear fleet. Given the lack of rich operating experience, we cannot accurately estimate the evolving probability of failure for basic components to populate the fault trees and event trees that typically comprise probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models. Online equipment prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies can bridge this gap to estimate the failure probabilities for components under operation. The enhanced risk monitor (ERM) incorporates equipment condition assessment into the existing PRA and risk monitor framework to provide accurate and timely estimates of operational risk.

  1. Risk assessment and management of occupational exposure to pesticides. (United States)

    Maroni, M; Fait, A; Colosio, C


    Occupational exposure to pesticides in agriculture and public health applications may cause acute and long-term health effects. Prevention of adverse effects in the users requires actions to be undertaken in the pre-marketing and post-marketing phase of these products. The pre-marketing preventive actions are primary responsibility of industry and the public administration. Admission of pesticide use (registration) is carried out by considering the toxicological properties of each pesticide (hazard identification), determining the dose-response relationship (NOEL identification), assessing or predicting the exposure level in the various scenarios of their use, and characterising the risk. The decision about admission takes into consideration the balance between risks and benefits. The post-marketing preventive activities consist of the promotion of a proper risk management at the workplace. Such a management includes the risk assessment of the specific conditions of use, the adoption of proper work practices, and the health surveillance of the workers. Each country should develop an adequate National Plan for Prevention of Pesticide Risk which allocates different roles and tasks at the central, regional and local level.

  2. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment (United States)

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  3. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  4. Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species. (United States)

    Runge, Claire A; Tulloch, Ayesha; Hammill, Edd; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A


    Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to-and-fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid-zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation

  5. Pesticide residues and bees--a risk assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Sanchez-Bayo

    Full Text Available Bees are essential pollinators of many plants in natural ecosystems and agricultural crops alike. In recent years the decline and disappearance of bee species in the wild and the collapse of honey bee colonies have concerned ecologists and apiculturalists, who search for causes and solutions to this problem. Whilst biological factors such as viral diseases, mite and parasite infections are undoubtedly involved, it is also evident that pesticides applied to agricultural crops have a negative impact on bees. Most risk assessments have focused on direct acute exposure of bees to agrochemicals from spray drift. However, the large number of pesticide residues found in pollen and honey demand a thorough evaluation of all residual compounds so as to identify those of highest risk to bees. Using data from recent residue surveys and toxicity of pesticides to honey and bumble bees, a comprehensive evaluation of risks under current exposure conditions is presented here. Standard risk assessments are complemented with new approaches that take into account time-cumulative effects over time, especially with dietary exposures. Whilst overall risks appear to be low, our analysis indicates that residues of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid insecticides pose the highest risk by contact exposure of bees with contaminated pollen. However, the synergism of ergosterol inhibiting fungicides with those two classes of insecticides results in much higher risks in spite of the low prevalence of their combined residues. Risks by ingestion of contaminated pollen and honey are of some concern for systemic insecticides, particularly imidacloprid and thiamethoxam, chlorpyrifos and the mixtures of cyhalothrin and ergosterol inhibiting fungicides. More attention should be paid to specific residue mixtures that may result in synergistic toxicity to bees.

  6. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa


    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  7. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan


    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  8. Assessing the Risk of Sarcopenia in the Elderly: The Mini Sarcopenia Risk Assessment (MSRA) Questionnaire. (United States)

    Rossi, A P; Micciolo, R; Rubele, S; Fantin, F; Caliari, C; Zoico, E; Mazzali, G; Ferrari, E; Volpato, S; Zamboni, M


    to validate the MSRA questionnaire proposed as prescreening tool for sarcopenia, in a population of community-dwelling elderly subjects. observational study. community dwelling elderly subjects. 274 community dwelling elderly subjects, 177 women and 97 men, aged 66-78 years. Based on EWGSOP diagnostic criteria subjects were classified as sarcopenic and non-sarcopenic. The Mini Sarcopenia Risk Assessment (MSRA) questionnaire, is composed of seven questions and investigates anamnestic and nutritional characteristics related to risk of sarcopenia onset (age, protein and dairy products consumption, number of meals per day, physical activity level, number of hospitalizations and weight loss in the last year). 33.5% of the study population, were classified as sarcopenic. With the 7-item MSRA score, subjects with a score of 30 or less, had a 4-fold greater risk of being sarcopenic than subjects with a score higher than 30 (OR:4.20;95% CI:2.26-8.06); area under the ROC curve was 0.786 (95% CI:0.725-0.847). In a logistic regression, considering as dependent variable the probability of being sarcopenic, and as independent variables the 7 items of the questionnaire, two items (number of meals and milk and dairy products consumption) showed non-significant diagnostic power. A 5-item score was then derived and the area under the ROC curve was 0.789 (95% IC:0.728-0.851). Taking into account the cost of false positive and false negative costs and the prevalence of sarcopenia, the "optimal" threshold of the original MSRA score (based on 7 items) is 30, with a sensitivity of 0.804 and a specificity of 0.505, while the "optimal" threshold of the MSRA score based on 5 items, is 45, with a sensitivity of 0.804 and a specificity of 0.604. this preliminary study shows that the MSRA questionnaire is predictive of sarcopenia and can be suggested as prescreening instrument to detect this condition. The use of a short form of the MSRA questionnaire improves the capacity to identify

  9. Radiological endpoints relevant to ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, F. [Univ. of California, Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore, CA (United States)


    Because of the potential risk from radiation due to the releases of radionuclides from anthropogenic activities, considerable research was performed to determine for humans the levels of dose received, their responses to the doses and mechanisms of action of radioactivity on living matter. More recently, there is an increased interest in the effects of radioactivity on non-human species. There are differences in approach between risk assessment for humans and ecosystems. For protection of humans, the focus is the individual and the endpoint of primary concern is cancer induction. For protection of ecosystems, the focus is on population stability and the endpoint of concern is reproductive success for organisms important ecologically and economically. For these organisms, information is needed on their responses to irradiation and the potential impact of the doses absorbed on their reproductive success. Considerable information is available on the effects of radiation on organisms from different phyla and types of ecosystems. Databases useful for assessing risk from exposures of populations to radioactivity are the effects of irradiation on mortality, fertility and sterility, the latter two of which are important components of reproductive success. Data on radiation effects on mortality are available both from acute and chronic irradiation. In relation to radiation effects, reproductive success for a given population is related to a number of characteristics of the species, including inherent radiosensitivity of reproductive tissues and early life stages, processes occurring during gametogenesis, reproductive strategy and exposure history. The available data on acute and chronic radiation doses is reviewed for invertebrates, fishes and mammals. The information reviewed indicates that wide ranges in responses with species can be expected. Parameters that most likely contribute to inherent radiosensitivity are discussed. (author)

  10. [Physical process based risk assessment of groundwater pollution in the mining area]. (United States)

    Sun, Fa-Sheng; Cheng, Pin; Zhang, Bo


    Case studies of groundwater pollution risk assessment at home and abroad generally start from groundwater vulnerability, without considering the influence of characteristic pollutants on the consequences of pollution too much. Vulnerability is the natural sensitivity of the environment to pollutants. Risk assessment of groundwater pollution should reflect the movement and distribution of pollutants in groundwater. In order to improve the risk assessment theory and method of groundwater pollution, a physical process based risk assessment methodology for groundwater pollution was proposed in a mining area. According to the sensitivity of the economic and social conditions and the possible distribution of pollutants in the future, the spatial distribution of risk levels in aquifer was ranged before hand, and the pollutant source intensity corresponding to each risk level was deduced accordingly. By taking it as the criterion for the classification of groundwater pollution risk assessment, the groundwater pollution risk in the mining area was evaluated by simulating the migration of pollutants in the vadose zone and aquifer. The result show that the risk assessment method of groundwater pollution based on physical process can give the concentration distribution of pollutants and the risk level in the spatial and temporal. For single punctuate polluted area, it gives detailed risk characterization, which is better than the risk assessment method that based on aquifer intrinsic vulnerability index, and it is applicable to the risk assessment of existing polluted sites, optimizing the future sites and providing design parameters for the site construction.

  11. Assessing Food Safety Risk in Global Supply Chain


    Shirani, Mohsen


    Despite many attempts in the food safety risk assessment, there are a few studies and methods to cover the entire food supply chain. This study introduce a new model to perform the food risk assessment considering human factor along the entire food supply chain. The multi-discipline methodology of risk assessment tool, in combination of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) has been applied in order to assess high safety risk point along the entire supply chain of food products. The method has be...

  12. Preventive risk assessment in forensic child and youth care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assink, M.


    Risk assessment is central to the work of forensic mental health professionals, since it serves as a guide for prevention and intervention strategies. For effective risk assessment, knowledge on risk factors and their effects as well as the availability of valid and reliable instruments for risk

  13. 75 FR 70009 - Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance (United States)


    ... HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance... guidance concerning Health Risk Assessment (HRAs). Section 4103 of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (Pub. L. 111-148) requires that a health risk assessment be included in the annual wellness visit benefit...

  14. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele


    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  15. 78 FR 23901 - Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes (United States)


    ... Food Safety and Inspection Service Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail... risk assessment (QRA), ``Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens... and on the FSIS Web site at ). II. Purpose...

  16. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.


    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

  17. Clinical Perspective Youth violence risk assessment: gaps in local ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is a lack of research on violence risk assessment in South Africa, particularly on the assessment of risk for violence in children and adolescents. ... to assess youth violence risk exist, many primarily focus on identifying psychopathic tendencies in young people, which has stimulated much debate amongst scholars.

  18. [Manual material handling risk assessment and ergonomic improvement in foodstuff retailing company]. (United States)

    Maso, S; Maccà, I; Simonetti, A; Scopa, P; Paruzzolo, P; Bonacci, A; Murgolo, I; Bartolucci, G B


    The aim of this study is to assess and reduce the risk due to manual material handling in a company involved in the foodstuff retailing. The risk assessment was performed by NIOSH Variable Lifing Index in 13 different occupational conditions. As result the risk was present in any case, with VLI values ranging from 2.12 to 2.81. A good risk reduction has been accomplished correcting properly the most important multiplier involved in the computation of the revised NIOSH Lifting equation (lifting frequency and weight of heavier products). Even if the performed risk reduction has been significant, the residual risk is still higher than the level of acceptability.

  19. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: a comparison of commonly used risk scoring programs


    Ulusoy, Şükrü


    Several calculation modalities are used today for cardiovascular risk assessment. Cardiovascular risk assessment should be performed in all hypertensive patients. Risk assessment methods being based on the population in which the patient lives and the inclusion of factors such as ethnicity variations, socioeconomic status, and medication use will contribute to improvements in risk assessments. The results should be shared with the patient, and modifiable risk factors must be effectively treated.

  20. Ocena ryzyka, okoliczności i następstwa upadków oraz ich uwarunkowania wśród mieszkańców domu pomocy społecznej = Risk assessment, circumstances and consequences of falls and their conditioning among social welfare home inhabitants


    Bartoszek, Adrian; Kocka, Katarzyna; Bartoszek, Agnieszka; Ślusarska, Barbara; Dudek, Izabela; Jamrozik, Kamila


    Bartoszek Adrian, Kocka Katarzyna, Bartoszek Agnieszka, Ślusarska Barbara, Dudek Izabela, Jamrozik Kamila. Ocena ryzyka, okoliczności i następstwa upadków oraz ich uwarunkowania wśród mieszkańców domu pomocy społecznej = Risk assessment, circumstances and consequences of falls and their conditioning among social welfare home inhabitants. Journal of Education, Health and Sport. 2016;6(8):257-266. eISSN 2391-8306. DOI

  1. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche


    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  2. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops. (United States)

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe


    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  3. PETRORISK: a risk assessment framework for petroleum substances. (United States)

    Redman, Aaron D; Parkerton, Thomas F; Comber, Mike H I; Paumen, Miriam Leon; Eadsforth, Charles V; Dmytrasz, Bhodan; King, Duncan; Warren, Christopher S; den Haan, Klaas; Djemel, Nadia


    PETRORISK is a modeling framework used to evaluate environmental risk of petroleum substances and human exposure through these routes due to emissions under typical use conditions as required by the European regulation for the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH). Petroleum substances are often complex substances comprised of hundreds to thousands of individual hydrocarbons. The physicochemical, fate, and effects properties of the individual constituents within a petroleum substance can vary over several orders of magnitude, complicating risk assessment. PETRORISK combines the risk assessment strategies used on single chemicals with the hydrocarbon block approach to model complex substances. Blocks are usually defined by available analytical characterization data on substances that are expressed in terms of mass fractions for different structural chemical classes that are specified as a function of C number or boiling point range. The physicochemical and degradation properties of the blocks are determined by the properties of representative constituents in that block. Emissions and predicted exposure concentrations (PEC) are then modeled using mass-weighted individual representative constituents. Overall risk for various environmental compartments at the regional and local level is evaluated by comparing the PECs for individual representative constituents to corresponding predicted no-effect concentrations (PNEC) derived using the Target Lipid Model. Risks to human health are evaluated using the overall predicted human dose resulting from multimedia environmental exposure to a substance-specific derived no-effect level (DNEL). A case study is provided to illustrate how this modeling approach has been applied to assess the risks of kerosene manufacture and use as a fuel. © 2014 SETAC.

  4. A risk assessment model for pipelines exposed to geohazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Esford, F; Porter, M.; Savigny, K.W. [BGC Engineering Inc., Vancouver, BC (Canada); Muhlbauer, W.K. [WKM Consultancy, Swindon (United Kingdom); Dunlop, C. [Transredes (Bolivia)


    The challenges facing Trans porte de Hidrocarburos Sociedad Anonima (Transredes) in maintaining and protecting its aging pipeline infrastructure were discussed. Transredes currently operates 2,744 km of liquids pipelines and 2,920 km of gas pipelines in Bolivia, across terrain that is subject to earthquakes, floods and landslides. The 4 to 36 inch inch diameter pipelines are 40 to 50 years old. A quantitative risk assessment procedure was developed to rank the threats to the pipelines and identify locations facing the highest level of risk. The purpose was to prioritize capital and maintenance activities based on risk management principles. The pilot study customized the risk assessment procedures to address the OSSA-1 pipeline's elevated exposure to geohazards. It was shown that the probability of geohazard-related pipeline failure is very site specific and can vary over several orders of magnitude. Twelve sites received high annual probability of failure estimates due to geohazards. These were among the highest ratings along the pipeline due to any hazard type. Although other hazard types also showed high probability of failure scores, many were related to information gaps or uncertainties in the condition of the pipeline. The following 3 initiatives have been identified for the initial OSSA-1 risk mitigation plan: geohazard mitigation; pipe strength uncertainty resolution; and, general uncertainty reduction. Transredes is using the information from this risk assessment to set capital and maintenance budgets and to develop programs to improve the operational safety of the OSSA-1 pipeline. 14 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  5. Prevalence and assessment of malnutrition risk among hospitalized children in Romania

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mărginean, Oana; Pitea, Ana Maria; Voidăzan, Septimiu; Mărginean, Claudiu


    Malnutrition is a prevalent condition in hospitalized children. Our aims were to evaluate the nutritional state and to validate the STRONGkids risk assessment tool in a hospitalized paediatric population in Romania...

  6. Importance of environmental and biomass dynamics in predicting chemical exposure in ecological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morselli, M.; Semplice, M.; Leander, de F.; Brink, van den P.J.; Guardo, Di A.


    In ecological risk assessment, exposure is generally modelled assuming static conditions, herewith neglecting the potential role of emission, environmental and biomass dynamics in affecting bioavailable concentrations. In order to investigate the influence of such dynamics on predicted bioavailable

  7. Assessing the Invasion Risk of Eucalyptus in the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R. Gordon


    Full Text Available Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA. This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38 Eucalyptus taxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

  8. Psychosocial working conditions and the risk of depression and anxiety disorders in the Danish workforce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuchsen Finn


    Full Text Available Abstract Background To examine the risk of depressive and anxiety disorders according to psychosocial working conditions in a large population-based sample. Methods Job Exposure Matrix was applied to assess psychosocial working conditions in a population-based nested case-control study of 14,166 psychiatric patients, diagnosed with depressive or anxiety disorders during 1995–1998 selected from The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register, compared with 58,060 controls drawn from Statistics Denmark's Integrated Database for Labour Market Research. Results Low job control was associated with an increased risk of anxiety disorders in men (IRR 1.40, 95% CI 1.24–1.58. In women an elevated risk of depression was related to high emotional demands (IRR 1.39, 95%CI 1.22–1.58 and to working with people (IRR 1.15, 95% CI 1.01–1.30. In both sexes high demands were associated with a decreased risk of anxiety disorders. There was a weak association between job strain and anxiety disorders in men (IRR 1.13, 95%, CI 1.02–1.25 Conclusion Psychosocial work exposures related to the risk of depressive and anxiety disorders differ as between the sexes. The pattern of risks is inconsistent. The results give rise to rethinking both study designs and possible causal links between work exposures and mental health.

  9. Methodology for quantitative assessment of technical condition in industrial systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinbach, C. [Marintek AS (Norway); Soerli, A. [Statoil (Norway)


    As part of the Eureka project Ageing Management a methodology has been developed to assess the technical condition of industrial systems. The first part of the presentation argues for the use of technical condition parameters in the context of maintenance strategies. Thereafter the term `technical condition` is defined more thoroughly as it is used within the project. It is claimed that the technical condition of a system - such as a feed water system of a nuclear power plant, or a water injection system on an oil platform - may be determined by aggregating the condition of its smaller components using a hierarchic approach. The hierarchy has to be defined in co-operation with experienced personnel and reflects the impact of degradation of elements on a lower level to nodes higher in the hierarchy. The impact is divided into five categories with respect to safety, environment, availability, costs and man-hours. To determine the technical condition of the bottom elements of the hierarchy, available data is used from both an on-line condition monitoring system and maintenance history. The second part of the presentation introduces the prototype software tool TeCoMan which utilises the theory and applies it to installations of the participating companies. First results and gained experiences with the method and tool are discussed. (orig.)

  10. Assessment of Technogenic Accident Risk of Industrial Building Structures (United States)

    Baiburin, D. A.; Baiburin, A. Kh


    A methodology for assessing the risk of an industrial building accident was developed taking into account the damage caused by various localization of collapse. Before the beginning of the survey of a facility technical condition, groups including the same type of building structures are selected. Further, assessment is made for the reduction in their load-carrying capacity from the strength and stability conditions taking into account defects. The characteristics of the influence of defects and structural damage on a building safety is the degree of compliance with the standards expressed by the reliability level. Reliability levels assignment is carried out on the basis of calculations, operating experience and inspection of a particular type of structure according to the formalized rules. The risk of collapse according to a separate scenario is calculated for structures that are capable and incapable of causing a progressive ossification. The results of the technique application are based on the analysis of the accident risk at the welding shop “Vysota (Height) 239” of the Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant.

  11. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi [Nuclear Science Programme, School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia)


    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  12. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy


    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  13. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita


    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  14. Risk assessment of tuberculosis in immunocompromised patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sester, Martina; van Leth, Frank; Bruchfeld, Judith


    RATIONALE: In the absence of active tuberculosis, a positive tuberculin skin test (TST) or interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) result defines latent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, although test results may vary depending on immunodeficiency. OBJECTIVES: This study compared the performance...... of TST and IGRAs in five different groups of immunocompromised patients, and evaluated their ability to identify those at risk for development of tuberculosis. METHODS: Immunocompromised patients with HIV infection, chronic renal failure, rheumatoid arthritis, solid-organ or stem-cell transplantation......, and healthy control subjects were evaluated head-to-head by the TST, QuantiFERON-TB-Gold in-tube test (ELISA), and T-SPOT.TB test (enzyme-linked immunospot) at 17 centers in 11 European countries. Development of tuberculosis was assessed during follow-up. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Frequencies of positive...

  15. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent


    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... skin associated with various skin disorders. BADGE and derivatives had a tendency to permeate pig skin membranes in vitro with higher fluxes in the tape stripped membranes compared to the non-treated membranes. Data from the in vitro skin permeation study and from the literature were used as input...

  16. Miniature Biosensor with Health Risk Assessment Feedback (United States)

    Hanson, Andrea; Downs, Meghan; Kalogera, Kent; Buxton, Roxanne; Cooper, Tommy; Cooper, Alan; Cooper, Ross


    Heart rate (HR) monitoring is a medical requirement during exercise on the International Space Station (ISS), fitness tests, and extravehicular activity (EVA); however, NASA does not currently have the technology to consistently and accurately monitor HR and other physiological data during these activities. Performance of currently available HR monitor technologies is dependent on uninterrupted contact with the torso and are prone to data drop-out and motion artifact. Here, we seek an alternative to the chest strap and electrode based sensors currently in use on ISS today. This project aims to develop a high performance, robust earbud based biosensor with focused efforts on improved HR data quality during exercise or EVA. A health risk assessment algorithm will further advance the goals of autonomous crew health care for exploration missions.

  17. Free Port of Vladivostok: Development Conditions, Prospects, Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Viktorovna Krasova


    Full Text Available One of the priority directions of Russia’s state policy with regard to territories’ development is the development of the Far Eastern region. The free port of Vladivostok is one of the key projects that are currently being implemented in the southern part of Primorsky Krai and they focus on boosting the socio-economic development of Vladivostok city, Primorsky Krai and the Far Eastern region as a whole. The goal of this research is to consider the conceptual issues of the free port of Vladivostok, to outline the conditions and prospects of its operation and identify risks associated with its future development. The article defines the modern concept of “free port”, characterizes historical experience of the “free port” regime in Vladivostok in the end of the 19th century, substantiates the strategic importance of using the free port of Vladivostok as a tool of intensive growth of Russian Far Eastern territories. The article also discloses the essence of the free port of Vladivostok as a means to promote free entrepreneurship, which is used to increase freight traffic through the port of Vladivostok, increase foreign trade, attract new investments, create new industries and develop the port’s infrastructure. The article provides a review of the main tax benefits and perspectives of the free port of Vladivostok in terms of the gross regional product formation. Analyzing the mechanisms of effective functioning of the free port of Vladivostok, the authors identify the short-term (mid-term and long-term priorities and operational risks for the free port of Vladivostok. The article also touches upon some issues concerning the response of some foreign countries to the creation of the free port of Vladivostok

  18. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael


    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  19. Assessing cover crop management under actual and climate change conditions. (United States)

    Alonso-Ayuso, María; Quemada, Miguel; Vanclooster, Marnik; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Rodriguez, Alfredo; Gabriel, José Luis


    The termination date is recognized as a key management factor to enhance cover crops for multiple benefits and to avoid competition with the following cash crop. However, the optimum date depends on annual meteorological conditions, and climate variability induces uncertainty in a decision that needs to be taken every year. One of the most important cover crop benefits is reducing nitrate leaching, a major concern for irrigated agricultural systems and highly affected by the termination date. This study aimed to determine the effects of cover crops and their termination date on the water and N balances of an irrigated Mediterranean agroecosystem under present and future climate conditions. For that purpose, two field experiments were used for inverse calibration and validation of the WAVE model (Water and Agrochemicals in the soil and Vadose Environment), based on continuous soil water content data, soil nitrogen content and crop measurements. The calibrated and validated model was subsequently used in advanced scenario analysis under present and climate change conditions. Under present conditions, a late termination date increased cover crop biomass and subsequently soil water and N depletion. Hence, preemptive competition risk with the main crop was enhanced, but a reduction of nitrate leaching also occurred. The hypothetical planting date of the following cash crop was also an important tool to reduce preemptive competition. Under climate change conditions, the simulations showed that the termination date will be even more important to reduce preemptive competition and nitrate leaching. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.


    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  1. Temporal constraints on predation risk assessment in a changing world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chivers, Douglas P., E-mail: [Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5E2 (Canada); Ramasamy, Ryan A.; McCormick, Mark I.; Watson, Sue-Ann [ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville Qld4811 (Australia); School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville Qld4811 (Australia); Siebeck, Ulrike E. [School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane Qld4072 (Australia); Ferrari, Maud C.O. [Department of Biomedical Sciences, WCVM, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7W 5B4 (Canada)


    Habitat degradation takes various forms and likely represents the most significant threat to our global biodiversity. Recently, we have seen considerable attention paid to increasing global CO{sub 2} emissions which lead to ocean acidification (OA). Other stressors, such as changing levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), also impact biodiversity but have received much less attention in the recent past. Here we examine fundamental questions about temporal aspects of risk assessment by coral reef damselfish and provide critical insights into how OA and UVR influence this assessment. Chemical cues released during a predator attack provide a rich source of information that other prey animals use to mediate their risk of predation and are the basis of the majority of trait-mediated indirect interactions in aquatic communities. However, we have surprisingly limited information about temporal aspects of risk assessment because we lack knowledge about how long chemical cues persist after they are released into the environment. Here, we showed that under ambient CO{sub 2} conditions (∼ 385 μatm), alarm cues of ambon damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis) did not degrade within 30 min in the absence of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), but were degraded within 15 min when the CO{sub 2} was increased to ∼ 905 μatm. In experiments that used filters to eliminate UVR, we found minimal degradation of alarm cues within 30 min, whereas under ambient UVR conditions, alarm cues were completely degraded within 15 min. Moreover, in the presence of both UVR and elevated CO{sub 2}, alarm cues were broken down within 5 min. Our results highlight that alarm cues degrade surprisingly quickly under natural conditions and that anthropogenic changes have the potential to dramatically change rates of cue degradation in the wild. This has considerable implications for risk assessment and consequently the importance of trait-mediated indirect interactions in coral-reef communities. - Highlights:

  2. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxiao Ji


    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1 formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2 representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3 elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4 aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5 quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

  3. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD


    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  4. Caries risk assessment in an educational environment. (United States)

    Doméjean-Orliaguet, Sophie; Gansky, Stuart A; Featherstone, John D


    This study was designed to assess, retrospectively using dental records, the impact on the management of dental caries of new caries risk assessment (CRA) forms and procedures introduced into a predoctoral dental school clinic. Of 3,659 patients with a new patient visit (NPV) and baseline exam (BE) in the two-year period of July 2003 through June 2005, 69 percent (n= 2,516) had a baseline CRA. "Visible cavitation or caries into dentin by radiograph" was significantly correlated to most items included in the CRA form, for example, "frequent between meal snack of sugars/cooked starch" (pinterproximal enamel lesions or radiolucencies" (OR=11.8), and "white spots or occlusal discoloration" (OR=1.50) were positively related. CRA use at follow-up, the use of bacterial tests, antibacterial therapy, and specific patient recommendations were all very low. While the content and usefulness of the CRA procedures were validated, the study highlighted the difficulties of implementing such programs in educational establishments even with an extensive student didactic program and faculty training.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko


    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  6. Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience (United States)

    Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab


    The increasing number of geological hazards in Malaysia has often resulted in casualties and extensive devastation with high mitigation cost. Given the destructive capacity and high frequency of disaster, Malaysia has taken a step forward to address the multi-scale landslide risk reduction emphasizing pre-disaster action rather than post-disaster reaction. Slope hazard and risk assessment in a quantitative manner at regional and national scales remains challenging in Malaysia. This paper presents the comprehensive methodology framework and operational needs driven by modern and advanced geospatial technology to address the aforementioned issues in the tropics. The Slope Hazard and Risk Mapping, the first national project in Malaysia utilizing the multi-sensor LIDAR has been critically implemented with the support of multi- and trans-disciplinary partners. The methodological model has been formulated and evaluated given the complexity of risk scenarios in this knowledge driven project. Instability slope problems in the urban, mountainous and tectonic landscape are amongst them, and their spatial information is of crucial for regional landslide assessment. We develop standard procedures with optimal parameterization for susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment in the selected regions. Remarkably, we are aiming at producing an utmost complete landslide inventory in both space and time. With the updated reliable terrain and landscape models, the landslide conditioning factor maps can be accurately derived depending on the landslide types and failure mechanisms which crucial for hazard and risk assessment. We also aim to improve the generation of elements at risk for landslide and promote integrated approaches for a better disaster risk analysis. As a result, a new tool, notably multi-sensor LIDAR technology is a very promising tool for an old geological problem and its derivative data for hazard and risk analysis is an effective preventive measure in Malaysia

  7. Applying the Heuristic to the Risk Assessment within the Automotive Industry Supply Chain (United States)

    Marasova, Daniela; Andrejiova, Miriam; Grincova, Anna


    Risk management facilitates risk identification, evaluation, control, and by means of appropriate set of measures, risk reduction or complete elimination. Therefore, the risk management becomes a strategic factor for a company's success. Properly implemented risk management system does not represent a tool to avoid the risk; it is used to understand the risk and provide the bases for strategic decision-making. Risk management represents a key factor for the supply chain operations. Managing the risks is crucial for achieving the customer satisfaction and thus also a company's success. The subject-matter of the article is the assessment of the supply chain in the automobile industry, in terms of risks. The topicality of this problem is even higher, as after the economic crisis it is necessary to revaluate the readiness of the supply chain for prospective risk conditions. One advantage of this article is the use of the Saaty method as a tool for the risk management within the supply chain.

  8. Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje


    Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

  9. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)


    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  10. Assessment of bioclimatic conditions within the area of Szczecin agglomeration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jadwiga Nidzgorska-Lencewicz


    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to characterise the bioclimatic conditions in the city of Szczecin, particularly the recognition of the frequency of occurrence of the conditions unfavourable to humans. The analysis is based on the hourly values of particular meteorological elements and pollutant concentrations in the period 2005?2010 taken at the three measuring stations located in various settlement structures in Szczecin metropolitan area. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI was used to assess heat stress of human organism and the assessment of thermal sensation was based on the Effective Temperature index (ET. It was established that on a yearly basis the most favourable biothermal conditions are observed in the centre of the city and in its southern districts ? categories no thermal stress (UTCI and thermal comfort (ET are most frequently recorded there. However, in the northern parts of the city the most common class of thermal stress (UTCI is moderate cold stress and thermal sensation category (ET cool and cold. Among the situations which thermal stress, the conditions connected with discomfort related to cold rather than heat are more frequent. Throughout the year, the strong cold stress (UTCI < 13 ° C and sensations (ET related to cold stress occurred in 12.5% and 25% of time respectively, whereas thermal discomfort related to strong heat stress with UTCI values over 32 ° C and ET thermal sensations hot and very hot were observed incomparably less frequently ? 0.3% and 3.7% respectively. However, heat-related discomfort is more frequently observed in the city centre, and cold-related discomfort is most frequently experienced by residents of the outskirts of the city, particularly its northern parts. The statistically strongest relationships were observed between biothermal sensation and ozone (O3 and particulate matter PM2.5 immissions. During the analysed period, the most unfavourable bioclimatic conditions occurred predominantly in

  11. Risk assessment framework for emerging vector-borne livestock diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, de C.J.; Hoek, M.R.; Fischer, E.A.J.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Bremmer, J.


    The objective of this project was to develop a framework for risk assessment of introduction, establishment, spread and persistence of vector-borne livestock diseases by integrating the essential elements of different approaches. This framework will help risk analysts to assess the risk of

  12. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort


    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  13. Risk assessment and safety regulations in offshore oil and gas ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk management of which risk assessment is part, and safety regulations are common in the offshore oil and gas industry management system. The process of conducting risk assessment is mostly a challenge for operational personnel assigned to perform this function. The most significant problem is the decision to use ...

  14. IDA’s Integrated Risk Assessment and Management Model (United States)


    Management Model James S. Thomason, Project Leader Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This work was conducted under IDA’s independent...P-4470 IDA’s Integrated Risk Assessment and Management Model James S. Thomason, Project Leader IDA’s Integrated Risk Assessment and... Management Model INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES “There has been plenty of risk management talk,

  15. A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Bo Lu; Ronald Fournier; Gericke Cook; Jean J. Turgeon


    Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain data in a geographical...

  16. Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) | Amin ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objectives of this paper are to critically examine the risk assessment provisions of the Malaysian Biosafety Act (2007), and to compare it with several risk ... with only a brief provision on risk assessment and there is no specific coverage on the socio-economic and ethical aspects as well as the precautionary approach.

  17. Differences between Teacher Reports on Universal Risk Assessments (United States)

    Smith-Millman, Marissa K.; Flaspohler, Paul D.; Maras, Melissa A.; Splett, Joni Williams; Warmbold, Kristy; Dinnen, Hannah; Luebbe, Aaron


    Some universal behavioural screening processes require classroom teachers to complete a risk assessment measure on each student in their class, leading to a possible, but unexplored, problem: risk assessment scores may be influenced by the teacher completing the measure. The current study investigated whether teacher-reported risk assessment…

  18. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.


    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews

  19. Risk assessment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in water. (United States)

    Mena, Kristina D; Gerba, Charles P


    drinking water industry, very little has been reported regarding the role of P. aeruginosa in biofilms. Tap water appears to be a significant route of transmission in hospitals, from colonization of plumbing fixtures. It is still not clear if the colonization results from the water in the distribution system, or personnel use within the hospital. Infections and colonization can be significantly reduced by placement of filters on the water taps. The oral dose of P. aeruginosa required to establish colonization in a healthy subject is high (George et al. 1989a). During dose-response studies, even when subjects (mice or humans) were colonized via ingestion, there was no evidence of disease. P. aeruginosa administered by the aerosol route at levels of 10(7) cells did cause disease symptoms in mice, and was lethal in aerosolized doses of 10(9) cells. Aerosol dose-response studies have not been undertaken with human subjects. Human health risks associated with exposure to P. aeruginosa via drinking water ingestion were estimated using a four-step risk assessment approach. The risk of colonization from ingesting P. aeruginosa in drinking water is low. The risk is slightly higher if the subject is taking an antibiotic resisted by P. aeruginosa. The fact that individuals on ampicillin are more susceptible to Pseudomonas gastrointestinal infection probably results from suppression of normal intestinal flora, which would allow Pseudomonas to colonize. The process of estimating risk was significantly constrained because of the absence of specific (quantitative) occurrence data for Pseudomonas. Sensitivity analysis shows that the greatest source of variability/uncertainty in the risk assessment is from the density distribution in the exposure rather than the dose-response or water consumption distributions. In summary, two routes appear to carry the greatest health risks from contacting water contaminated with P. aeruginosa (1) skin exposure in hot tubs and (2) lung exposure from

  20. Cystic Fibrosis: A Risk Condition for Renal Disease. (United States)

    Santoro, Domenico; Postorino, Adele; Lucanto, Cristina; Costa, Stefano; Cristadoro, Simona; Pellegrino, Salvatore; Conti, Giovanni; Buemi, Michele; Magazzù, Giuseppe; Bellinghieri, Guido


    Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common autosomal recessive disease affecting the Caucasian population, with a birth incidence ranging between 1:2,500 and 1:1,800. It is caused by mutations in the CF transmembrane regulator gene which is localized on 7 chromosomes. Renal disease is reported as a relatively rare complication in adult patient with CF. We evaluated proteinuria and chronic renal failure (CRF) in a population of patients with CF. A retrospective study was carried out in a referral center for CF at University of Messina in Italy. We identified all patients with renal disease, characterized by proteinuria and/or CRF, during the period 2007 to 2012 and reviewed their medical records to assess influence on renal disease of genotype, number of pulmonary exacerbation, pancreatic insufficiency, pulmonary function, CF-related diabetes, and antibiotics courses. From a population of 77 adult patients with CF, we identified 9 patients with proteinuria (11.7%), and 11 patients (14.28%) with CRF. Mean age was 35.6 (+5.1 standard deviation) years, 55% were female and 33% had diabetes mellitus. Renal biopsy was performed in 3 patients because of nephrotic syndrome in 1 patient and proteinuria with renal failure in the other 2 patients. Renal amyloidosis was disclosed in 2, whereas IgA nephropathy in 1 patient. The ΔF508 mutation in homozygosis was present in 44% of patients with proteinuria (vs. 27% of our CF population, relative risk 2.07), whereas genotype ΔF508/N1303K in 22%. ΔF508 allele mutation was present in 77.7% of proteinuric patients. Our study shows a higher prevalence of renal disease in patients with CF, than was previously described. The main reason may be related to increased life expectancy because of better management. Moreover, patients with ΔF508 homozygosis had higher risk of proteinuria. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk assessment of use of cracked eggs in Canada. (United States)

    Todd, E C


    In 1992, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) amended its Egg Regulations to restrict movement of Canada C eggs (cracks) to federally registered processed egg stations for pasteurization. This was questioned by egg producers and some provinces on economic grounds. It was also in conflict with long-standing practices of marketing eggs in some provinces to retail stores, bakeries, restaurants and institutions or at the farm gate. In order to determine how much of a risk these eggs were to human health, AAFC requested that the Health Protection Branch (HPB) of Health Canada (HC) conduct a risk assessment. On the basis of outbreak data, the main hazard in these eggs was identified as Salmonella. Salmonellae may occasionally be present on shell eggs even after washing, and any Salmonella reaching the membranes can be transferred to an egg mixture through breaking, and will rapidly grow under improper storage conditions. A Relative Risk analysis showed that cracked eggs are 3 to 93 times more likely than uncracked shell eggs to cause outbreaks. A probability of illness of 1 in 3800 was derived from the 40 million cracked eggs produced in Canada and not pasteurized and the probable 10,500 illnesses arising from these. This was for the general population, but this would be greater for those who consume many shell eggs or would do so in an unsafe manner, or are more likely to be infected (5% of consumers who eat raw or lightly cooked eggs daily, rural communities with more opportunities for obtaining cracked eggs, and those who are immunocompromised and in institutions). Even though it is not possible to precisely determine the risk of salmonellosis through cracked eggs, this assessment indicated that there was enough of a concern that a management strategy was needed. Eight options for managing the risk were considered and ranked for acceptability by both HC and AAFC. Ideally, all cracked eggs should be broken and pasteurized, but this is impractical in certain regions

  2. Desertification risk assessment in southern Mediterranean areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Greco


    Full Text Available The paper deals some important aspects concerning the study of desertification phenomenon that has significantly interested all European countries of the Mediterranean basin in the last decades. The territorial sensibility, qualitatively and/or quantitatively, of the risk related to the desertification processes has been valued as grade of susceptibility to the phenomenon in the study area, with respect to the hydraulic and hydrologic conditioning factors. The methodological approach followed is based on the classification of desertification indicators by means of a suitable conceptual model applied to the study area in Basilicata region. The classical desertification indexes have been evaluate referring to the study area generating temporal informative map. To achieve such objective, the historical series of temperatures and rainfall of several gauge-stations have been analysed, and the first results show an increasing trend for the temperature in last years, according to the global scale. An increase of aridity and erosion index values is, also, outlined by the collected data with slight reductions at higher altitudes.

  3. Extreme Conditioning Programs: Potential Benefits and Potential Risks. (United States)

    Knapik, Joseph J


    CrossFit, Insanity, Gym Jones, and P90X are examples of extreme conditioning programs (ECPs). ECPs typically involve high-volume and high-intensity physical activities with short rest periods between movements and use of multiple joint exercises. Data on changes in fitness with ECPs are limited to CrossFit investigations that demonstrated improvements in muscle strength, muscular endurance, aerobic fitness, and body composition. However, no study has directly compared CrossFit or other ECPs to other more traditional forms of aerobic and resistance training within the same investigation. These direct comparisons are needed to more adequately evaluate the effectiveness of ECPs. Until these studies emerge, the comparisons with available literature suggest that improvements in CrossFit, in terms of muscular endurance (push-ups, sit-ups), strength, and aerobic capacity, appear to be similar to those seen in more traditional training programs. Investigations of injuries in ECPs are limited to two observational studies that suggest that the overall injury rate is similar to that seen in other exercise programs. Several cases of rhabdomyolysis and cervical carotid artery dissections have been reported during CrossFit training. The symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment of these are reviewed here. Until more data on ECPs emerge, physical training should be aligned with US Army doctrine. If ECPs are included in exercise programs, trainers should (1) have appropriate training certifications, (2) inspect exercise equipment regularly to assure safety, (3) introduce ECPs to new participants, (4) ensure medical clearance of Soldiers with special health problems before participation in ECPs, (4) tailor ECPs to the individual Soldier, (5) adjust rest periods to optimize recovery and reduce fatigue, (6) monitor Soldiers for signs of overtraining, rhabdomyolysis, and other problems, and (7) coordinate exercise programs with other unit training activities to eliminate redundant activities

  4. Risk Assessment Model and Supply Chain Risk Catalog


    Borut Jereb; Tina Cvahte; Bojan Rosi


    By managing risk on the level of the supply chain we gain insight of all potential threats to all organizations involved in the chain as well as to the supply chain itself, especially to the logistics resources: flow of goods, services and information; logistics infrastructure and suprastructure; and people. Supply chain risk management should represent a crucial activity in every organization. As there is currently no standard specifically aimed at holistic supply chain risk management, we p...

  5. Understanding Vocalization Might Help to Assess Stressful Conditions in Piglets. (United States)

    da Silva Cordeiro, Alexandra Ferreira; de Alencar Nääs, Irenilza; Oliveira, Stanley R M; Violaro, Fabio; de Almeida, Andréia C M; Neves, Diego Pereira


    Assessing pigs' welfare is one of the most challenging subjects in intensive pig farming. Animal vocalization analysis is a noninvasive procedure and may be used as a tool for assessing animal welfare status. The objective of this research was to identify stress conditions in piglets reared in farrowing pens through their vocalization. Vocal signals were collected from 40 animals under the following situations: normal (baseline), feeling cold, in pain, and feeling hunger. A unidirectional microphone positioned about 15 cm from the animals' mouth was used for recording the acoustic signals. The microphone was connected to a digital recorder, where the signals were digitized at the 44,100 Hz frequency. The collected sounds were edited and analyzed. The J48 decision tree algorithm available at the Weka(®) data mining software was used for stress classification. It was possible to categorize diverse conditions from the piglets' vocalization during the farrowing phase (pain, cold and hunger), with an accuracy rate of 81.12%. Results indicated that vocalization might be an effective welfare indicator, and it could be applied for assessing distress from pain, cold and hunger in farrowing piglets.

  6. Understanding Vocalization Might Help to Assess Stressful Conditions in Piglets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Pereira Neves


    Full Text Available Assessing pigs’ welfare is one of the most challenging subjects in intensive pig farming. Animal vocalization analysis is a noninvasive procedure and may be used as a tool for assessing animal welfare status. The objective of this research was to identify stress conditions in piglets reared in farrowing pens through their vocalization. Vocal signals were collected from 40 animals under the following situations: normal (baseline, feeling cold, in pain, and feeling hunger. A unidirectional microphone positioned about 15 cm from the animals’ mouth was used for recording the acoustic signals. The microphone was connected to a digital recorder, where the signals were digitized at the 44,100 Hz frequency. The collected sounds were edited and analyzed. The J48 decision tree algorithm available at the Weka® data mining software was used for stress classification. It was possible to categorize diverse conditions from the piglets’ vocalization during the farrowing phase (pain, cold and hunger, with an accuracy rate of 81.12%. Results indicated that vocalization might be an effective welfare indicator, and it could be applied for assessing distress from pain, cold and hunger in farrowing piglets.

  7. Risk assessment of atmospheric emissions using machine learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Cervone


    Full Text Available Supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms are used to perform statistical and logical analysis of several transport and dispersion model runs which simulate emissions from a fixed source under different atmospheric conditions.

    First, a clustering algorithm is used to automatically group the results of different transport and dispersion simulations according to specific cloud characteristics. Then, a symbolic classification algorithm is employed to find complex non-linear relationships between the meteorological input conditions and each cluster of clouds. The patterns discovered are provided in the form of probabilistic measures of contamination, thus suitable for result interpretation and dissemination.

    The learned patterns can be used for quick assessment of the areas at risk and of the fate of potentially hazardous contaminants released in the atmosphere.

  8. Musculoskeletal risk assessment in small furniture manufacturing workshops. (United States)

    Nejad, Naser Hashemi; Choobineh, Alireza; Rahimifard, Hoda; Haidari, Hamid Reza; Tabatabaei, Sayed Hamid Reza


    In Iran, furniture is mainly manufactured in small workshops, where most activities are performed manually. This study was conducted among workers of furniture workshops to determine prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms and to assess ergonomic working conditions to identify major risk factors associated with musculoskeletal symptoms. In this study, 410 randomly selected furniture workers participated. The Nordic questionnaire and an ergonomics checklist consisting of 6 sections were used as data collection tools. An index was calculated for each section of the checklist. Action categories indicating the priority of corrective measures were also defined. The highest prevalence of symptoms was reported in the knees (39%), lower back (35.6%) and wrists/hands (29.5%). It was found that manual material handling, poor workstation design and awkward working postures were associated with the reported symptoms in these regions (OR 1.77-4.52). Poor general working conditions and work organization showed association as well. Any interventional measures should focus on these areas.

  9. TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, Rodman Ray [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Koo, Eunmo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Honig, Kristen Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); White, Judith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Funk, David John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)


    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautions that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is

  10. Risk factors and assessment for cardiovascular disease among HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: cardiovascular risk factors are prevalent in HIV-positive patients which places them at increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to determine the risk factors and risk assessment for CVD in HIV-positive patients with and without antiretroviral therapy. Methods: this was a cross-sectional study of ...

  11. Photogrammetry in Experiments for Hydrogeological Risk Assessment (United States)

    Barazzetti, L.; Scaioni, M.; Feng, T.; Qiao, G.; Lu, P.; Tong, X.; Li, R.


    The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN) to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors) can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors), potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China).

  12. Small scale water recycling systems--risk assessment and modelling. (United States)

    Diaper, C; Dixon, A; Bulier, D; Fewkes, A; Parsons, S A; Strathern, M; Stephenson, T; Strutt, J


    This paper aims to use quantitative risk analysis, risk modelling and simulation modelling tools to assess the performance of a proprietary single house grey water recycling system. A preliminary Hazard and Operability study (HAZOP) identified the main hazards, both health related and economic, associated with installing the recycling system in a domestic environment. The health related consequences of system failure were associated with the presence of increased concentrations of micro-organisms at the point of use, due to failure of the disinfection system and/or the pump. The risk model was used to assess the increase in the probability of infection for a particular genus of micro-organism, Salmonella spp, during disinfection failure. The increase in the number of cases of infection above a base rate rose from 0.001% during normal operation, to 4% for a recycling system with no disinfection. The simulation model was used to examine the possible effects of pump failure. The model indicated that the anaerobic COD release rate in the system storage tank increases over time and dissolved oxygen decreases during this failure mode. These conditions are likely to result in odour problems.

  13. Bridge Condition Assessment based on Vibration Responses of Passenger Vehicle (United States)

    Miyamoto, Ayaho; Yabe, Akito


    In this paper, we propose a new method of assessing the condition of existing short- and medium-span reinforced/prestressed concrete bridges based on vibration monitoring data obtained from a public bus. This paper not only describes details of a prototype monitoring system that uses information technology and sensors capable of providing more accurate knowledge of bridge performance than conventional ways but also shows a few specific examples of bridge condition assessment based on vehicle vibrations measured by using an in-service public bus equipped with vibration measurement instrumentation. This paper also describes a sensitivity analysis of deteriorating bridges based on simulation of the acceleration response of buses conducted by the "substructure method" employing a finite element model to verify the above bridge performance results. The main conclusions obtained in this study can be summarized as follows: (1) Because the vibration responses of passenger vehicles, such as buses, have a good linear relationship with the vibration responses of the target bridges, the proposed system can be used as a practical monitoring system for bridge condition assessment. (2) The results of sensitivity analysis performed by the substructure method show that bus vibration responses are useful for evaluating target bridge performance. (3) The proposed method was applied to a network of real bridges in a local area to evaluate its effectiveness. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to prioritize the repair/strengthening works of existing bridges based on various vibration information in order to help bridge administrators establish rational maintenance strategies.

  14. Bridge Condition Assessment based on Vibration Responses of Passenger Vehicle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyamoto, Ayaho [Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Yamaguchi University, Ube (Japan); Yabe, Akito, E-mail:, E-mail: [Seismic Engineering Department, KOZO KEIKAKU Engineering Inc. Tokyo (Japan)


    In this paper, we propose a new method of assessing the condition of existing short- and medium-span reinforced/prestressed concrete bridges based on vibration monitoring data obtained from a public bus. This paper not only describes details of a prototype monitoring system that uses information technology and sensors capable of providing more accurate knowledge of bridge performance than conventional ways but also shows a few specific examples of bridge condition assessment based on vehicle vibrations measured by using an in-service public bus equipped with vibration measurement instrumentation. This paper also describes a sensitivity analysis of deteriorating bridges based on simulation of the acceleration response of buses conducted by the 'substructure method' employing a finite element model to verify the above bridge performance results. The main conclusions obtained in this study can be summarized as follows: (1) Because the vibration responses of passenger vehicles, such as buses, have a good linear relationship with the vibration responses of the target bridges, the proposed system can be used as a practical monitoring system for bridge condition assessment. (2) The results of sensitivity analysis performed by the substructure method show that bus vibration responses are useful for evaluating target bridge performance. (3) The proposed method was applied to a network of real bridges in a local area to evaluate its effectiveness. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to prioritize the repair/strengthening works of existing bridges based on various vibration information in order to help bridge administrators establish rational maintenance strategies.

  15. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change. (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L


    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  16. Cancer Risk Assessment: Should New Science be Applied? Workgroup summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richard J. Bull; Antone L. Brooks


    OAK-B135 A symposium discussing the implications of certain phenomena observed in radiation biology for cancer risk assessment in general. In July of 2002 a workshop was convened that explored some of the intercellular phenomena that appear to condition responses to carcinogen exposure. Effects that result from communication between cells that appear to either increase the sphere of damage or to modify the sensitivity of cells to further damage were of particular interest. Much of the discussion focused on the effects of ionizing radiation that were transmitted from cells directly hit to cells not receiving direct exposure to radiation (bystander cells). In cell culture, increased rates of mutation, chromosomal aberration, apoptosis, genomic instability, and decreased clonogenic survival have all been observed in cells that have experienced no direct radiation. In addition, there is evidence that low doses of radiation or certain chemicals give rise to adaptive responses in which the treated cells develop resistance to the effects of high doses given in subsequent exposures. Data were presented at the workshop indicating that low dose exposure of animals to radiation and some chemicals frequently reduces the spontaneous rate of mutation in vitro and tumor responses in vivo. Finally, it was concluded that considerable improvement in understanding of how genetic variation may modify the impact of these phenomena is necessary before the risk implications can be fully appreciated. The workshop participants discussed the substantive challenge that these data present with respect to simple linear methodologies that are currently used in cancer risk assessment and attempted to identify broad strategies by which these phenomena may start to be used to refine cancer risk assessment methods in the future.

  17. Exposure Data for Travel Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O; Koornstra, Matthijs; Broughton, Jeremy


    This report illustrates why risk and exposure data are critical for policymaking at local, national and EU levels.Conclusions are drawn about the evaluation and use of risk information for different modes and estimates are presented for the fatality risk of various travel modes in the EU....

  18. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment. (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra


    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Ozone Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas (United States)

    The health risk assessment described in this report estimated various health effects associated with O3 exposures as well as the reduced risks for one O3 season associated with just meeting the current O3 NAAQS.

  20. FIFRA Peer Review: Proposed Risk Assessment Methods Process (United States)

    From September 11-14, 2012, EPA participated in a Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) meeting on a proposed pollinator risk assessment framework for determining the potential risks of pesticides to honey bees.

  1. Human Health Risk Assessment: A case study application of principles in dose response assessment (United States)

    This case study application workshop will build on fundamental concepts and techniques in risk assessment presented and archived at previous TRAC meeting workshops. Practical examples from publicly available, peer reviewed risk assessments will be used as teaching aids. Course ...

  2. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for in Natural and Processed Cheeses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heeyoung Lee


    Full Text Available This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10−11 was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α1 = 1, α2 = 91; α1 = 1, α2 = 309×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8 to be −2.35 and −2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10−14 and 3.58×10−14, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens

  3. The evolution of conditional moral assessment in indirect reciprocity (United States)

    Sasaki, Tatsuya; Okada, Isamu; Nakai, Yutaka


    Indirect reciprocity is a major mechanism in the maintenance of cooperation among unrelated individuals. Indirect reciprocity leads to conditional cooperation according to social norms that discriminate the good (those who deserve to be rewarded with help) and the bad (those who should be punished by refusal of help). Despite intensive research, however, there is no definitive consensus on what social norms best promote cooperation through indirect reciprocity, and it remains unclear even how those who refuse to help the bad should be assessed. Here, we propose a new simple norm called “Staying” that prescribes abstaining from assessment. Under the Staying norm, the image of the person who makes the decision to give help stays the same as in the last assessment if the person on the receiving end has a bad image. In this case, the choice about whether or not to give help to the potential receiver does not affect the image of the potential giver. We analyze the Staying norm in terms of evolutionary game theory and demonstrate that Staying is most effective in establishing cooperation compared to the prevailing social norms, which rely on constant monitoring and unconditional assessment. The application of Staying suggests that the strict application of moral judgment is limited.

  4. Disaster risk assessment pattern in higher education centers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Omidvari


    Full Text Available Disasters are one of the most important challenges which must be considered by every management system. Higher education centers have high disaster risk because of their risk factors (existence of historical and scientific documents and resources and expensive laboratory equipment in these centers emphasizes the importance of disaster management. Moreover, the existence of young volunteers of human resources in universities urges the necessity of making these people familiar with disaster management rules and responses in emergency conditions. Creating appropriate tools for disaster management assessment makes it correct and precise in higher education systems using the presented conceptual model. The present model was planned so as to cover three phases which exist before, during, and after disaster. Studies were performed in one of the largest higher education centers in Tehran: Science and Research Branch of Islamic Azad University Campus. Results showed high-risk disasters in these centers which must be taken into consideration continuously. The objective of this study was to create appropriate patterns of disaster risk management in these centers.

  5. Systematic Suicide Risk Assessment for Patients With Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Charlotte Gjørup; Wallenstein Jensen, Signe Olrik; Gradus, Jaimie


    Objectives: Systematic suicide risk assessment is recommended for patients with schizophrenia; however, little is known about the implementation of suicide risk assessment in routine clinical practice. The study aimed to determine the use of systematic suicide risk assessment at discharge....... Results: The proportion of patients receiving suicide risk assessment at discharge from a psychiatric ward increased from 72% (95% confidence interval [CI]=71%-74%) in 2005, when the national monitoring began, to 89% (CI.89%-90%) in 2009. Within one year after discharge, 1% of all registered patients had...... died by suicide and 8% had attempted suicide. One out of three patients who died by suicide had no documented suicide risk assessment before discharge. Conclusions: The use of systematic suicide risk assessment at discharge among patients with schizophrenia increased in Denmark between 2005 and 2009...

  6. Considerations for Using Genetic and Epigenetic Information in Occupational Health Risk Assessment and Standard Setting. (United States)

    Schulte, P A; Whittaker, C; Curran, C P


    Risk assessment forms the basis for both occupational health decision-making and the development of occupational exposure limits (OELs). Although genetic and epigenetic data have not been widely used in risk assessment and ultimately, standard setting, it is possible to envision such uses. A growing body of literature demonstrates that genetic and epigenetic factors condition biological responses to occupational and environmental hazards or serve as targets of them. This presentation addresses the considerations for using genetic and epigenetic information in risk assessments, provides guidance on using this information within the classic risk assessment paradigm, and describes a framework to organize thinking about such uses. The framework is a 4 × 4 matrix involving the risk assessment functions (hazard identification, dose-response modeling, exposure assessment, and risk characterization) on one axis and inherited and acquired genetic and epigenetic data on the other axis. The cells in the matrix identify how genetic and epigenetic data can be used for each risk assessment function. Generally, genetic and epigenetic data might be used as endpoints in hazard identification, as indicators of exposure, as effect modifiers in exposure assessment and dose-response modeling, as descriptors of mode of action, and to characterize toxicity pathways. Vast amounts of genetic and epigenetic data may be generated by high-throughput technologies. These data can be useful for assessing variability and reducing uncertainty in extrapolations, and they may serve as the foundation upon which identification of biological perturbations would lead to a new paradigm of toxicity pathway-based risk assessments.

  7. A Natural Resource Condition Assessment for Rocky Mountain National Park (United States)

    Theobald, D.M.; Baron, Jill S.; Newman, P.; Noon, B.; Norman, J. B.; Leinwand, I.; Linn, S.E.; Sherer, R.; Williams, K.E.; Hartman, M.


    We conducted a natural resource assessment of Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO) to provide a synthesis of existing scientific data and knowledge to address the current conditions for a subset of important park natural resources. The intent is for this report to help provide park resource managers with data and information, particularly in the form of spatially-explicit maps and GIS databases, about those natural resources and to place emerging issues within a local, regional, national, or global context. With an advisory team, we identified the following condition indicators that would be useful to assess the condition of the park: Air and Climate: Condition of alpine lakes and atmospheric deposition Water: Extent and connectivity of wetland and riparian areas Biotic Integrity: Extent of exotic terrestrial plant species, extent of fish distributions, and extent of suitable beaver habitat Landscapes: Extent and pattern of major ecological systems and natural landscapes connectivity These indicators are summarized in the following pages. We also developed two maps of important issues for use by park managers: visitor use (thru accessibility modeling) and proportion of watersheds affected by beetle kill. Based on our analysis, we believe that there is a high degree of concern for the following indicators: condition of alpine lakes; extent and connectivity of riparian/wetland areas; extent of exotic terrestrial plants (especially below 9,500’); extent of fish distributions; extent of suitable beaver habitat; and natural landscapes and connectivity. We found a low degree of concern for: the extent and pattern of major ecological systems. The indicators and issues were also summarized by the 34 watershed units (HUC12) within the park. Generally, we found six watersheds to be in “pristine” condition: Black Canyon Creek, Comanche Creek, Middle Saint Vrain Creek, South Fork of the Cache la Poudre, Buchanan Creek, and East Inlet. Four watersheds were found to have

  8. Serious mental illness, criminal risk, parole supervision, and recidivism: testing of conditional effects. (United States)

    Matejkowski, Jason; Ostermann, Michael


    Adults with serious mental illness (SMI) who are released from prison tend to recidivate more quickly and at higher rates than similarly situated adults who do not have SMI. The current study examined whether this relationship with recidivism is mediated by criminal risk level and whether parole supervision can ameliorate the effects of SMI on recidivism. Findings indicate that SMI did exhibit a significant indirect effect with recidivism when considering its relationship with actuarially assessed risk. However, this indirect effect was not conditioned by whether the individual was released to parole; specifically release status did not moderate the relationship between risk and recidivism. The direct effects of SMI on recidivism were found to be conditioned upon release status. Specifically, we found no relationship between SMI and recidivism for parolees and a negative relationship between SMI and recidivism among nonparolees. Findings indicate a need for paroling authorities to find more effective ways of reducing criminal risk, which can decrease subsequent recidivism, among the individuals they supervise.

  9. Landslide susceptibility and risk assessment: specificities for road networks (United States)

    Pellicani, Roberta; Argentiero, Ilenia; Parisi, Alessandro; Spilotro, Giuseppe


    A regional-scale assessment of landslide susceptibility and risk along the main road corridors crossing the provincial territory of Matera (Basilicata Region, Southern Italy) was carried out. The entire provincial road network extends for about 1,320 km through a territory, of which represents the main connection infrastructure among thirty-one municipalities due to the lack of an efficient integrated transportation system through the whole regional territory. For this reason, the strategic importance of these roads consists in their uniqueness in connecting every urban center with the socio-economic surrounding context. These roads and their vehicular traffic are continuously exposed to instability processes (about the 40% of the total length is disrupted by landslides), characterized both by high intensity and low frequency and by low intensity and high frequency. This last typology, consisting in small shallow landslides, is particularly hazardous for the roads since it is widespread along the road network, its occurrence is connected to rainfalls and determines high vulnerability conditions for the road in terms of interruption of vehicular traffic. A GIS-based heuristic-bivariate statistical predictive model was performed to assess and map the landslide susceptibility in the study area, by using a polynomial function of eight predisposing factors, weighted according to their influence on the landslide phenomena, recognized and collected in an inventory. Susceptibility associated to small shallow phenomena was assessed by using a polynomial function of specific factors, such as slope angle and aspect, lithological outcrops, rainfalls, etc. In absence of detailed input data, the spatial distribution of landslide risk along the road corridors was assessed and mapped using a qualitative hazard-consequence matrix approach, by which risk is obtained by combining hazard categories with consequence classes pairwise in a two-dimensional table or matrix. Landslide

  10. Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems (United States)

    Fitz, Rhonda


    As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domaincomponent, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IVV enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this

  11. Effective Methodology for Security Risk Assessment of Computer Systems


    Daniel F. García; Adrián Fernández


    Today, computer systems are more and more complex and support growing security risks. The security managers need to find effective security risk assessment methodologies that allow modeling well the increasing complexity of current computer systems but also maintaining low the complexity of the assessment procedure. This paper provides a brief analysis of common security risk assessment methodologies leading to the selection of a proper methodology to fulfill these requirements. Then, a detai...

  12. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamel, D.R. [Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)


    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  13. Risk Assessment and Hierarchical Risk Management of Enterprises in Chemical Industrial Parks Based on Catastrophe Theory


    Zhenyu Liu; Yun Zhang; Shushen Zhang; Fenglin Yang; Guobao Song; Yu Chen


    According to risk systems theory and the characteristics of the chemical industry, an index system was established for risk assessment of enterprises in chemical industrial parks (CIPs) based on the inherent risk of the source, effectiveness of the prevention and control mechanism, and vulnerability of the receptor. A comprehensive risk assessment method based on catastrophe theory was then proposed and used to analyze the risk levels of ten major chemical enterprises in the Songmu Island CIP...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Trubei


    Full Text Available The article provides a survey of the existing regulatory framework for information security riskmanagement. Practical methods for information security risk and vulnerability assessment are proposed.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Copula is already widely used in financial assets, especially in risk management. It is due to the ability of copula, to capture the nonlinear dependence structure on multivariate assets. In addition, using copula function doesn’t require the assumption of normal distribution. There fore it is suitable to be applied to financial data. To manage a risk the necessary measurement tools can help mitigate the risks. One measure that can be used to measure risk is Value at Risk (VaR. Although VaR is very popular, it has several weaknesses. To overcome the weakness in VaR, an alternative risk measure called CVaR can be used. The porpose of this study is to estimate CVaR using Gaussian copula. The data we used are the closing price of Facebook and Twitter stocks. The results from the calculation using 90%  confidence level showed that the risk that may be experienced is at 4,7%, for 95% confidence level it is at 6,1%, and for 99% confidence level it is at 10,6%.

  16. 42 CFR 417.442 - Risk HMO's and CMP's: Conditions for provision of additional benefits. (United States)


    ... 42 Public Health 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Risk HMO's and CMP's: Conditions for provision of... Medicare Contract § 417.442 Risk HMO's and CMP's: Conditions for provision of additional benefits. (a) General rule. Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, a risk HMO or CMP must, during any...


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B


    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  18. Condition Assessment for Power Transformer Using Health Index (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Wu, Kuihua; Zhu, Wenbing; Gu, Chao


    To improve the forecasting accuracy and ensure reliable and stable operation of transformer, based on health index estimation model is proposed. The transformer data is divided into different levels and parts, so multi-parameter statistical analysis is carried on. The indicator system is scored and weighted by computing history data (inspection and maintenance, family defects, basic information and loading history) and condition data (such as routine test data). The condition parameters, which are classified on the component level, are scored and weighted, using statistical tools calculation. By using the statistical tools SPSS (statistical product and service solutions), multivariate statistical analysis was carried out. On the basis of studying the relationship between various parameters, a health evaluation model, which is based on contribution analysis, is presented. A condition-based evaluation tool, that quantifies power transformer degradation and clarifies the relationship between each health index, is put forward. Results are presented to verify the validity and feasibility of evaluating model and assessment algorithm. This paper provides a scientific method for the transmitting and transforming field.

  19. Ensemble learning as approach for pipeline condition assessment (United States)

    Camacho-Navarro, Jhonatan; Ruiz, Magda; Villamizar, Rodolfo; Mujica, Luis; Moreno-Beltrán, Gustavo


    The algorithms commonly used for damage condition monitoring present several drawbacks related to unbalanced data, optimal training requirements, low capability to manage feature diversity and low tolerance to errors. In this work, an approach based on ensemble learning is discussed as alternative to obtain more efficient diagnosis. The main advantage of ensemble learning is the use of several algorithms at the same time for a better proficiency. Thereby, combining simplest tree decision algorithms in bagging scheme, the accuracy of damage detection is improved. It takes advantage by combining prediction of preliminary algorithms based on regression models. The methodology is experimentally validated on a carbon steel pipe section, where mass adding conditions are studied as possible failures. Data from an active system based on piezoelectric sensors are stored and characterized through the T2 and Q statistical indexes. Then, they are the inputs to the ensemble learning. The proposed methodology allows determining the condition assessment and damage localizations in the structure. The results of the studied cases show the feasibility of ensemble learning for detecting occurrence of structural damages with successful results.

  20. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials. (United States)

    Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders


    This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

  1. Cavity degradation risk insurance assessment. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hampson, C.; Neill, P.; de Bivort, L.


    This study examined the risks and risk management issues involved with the implementation by electric power utilities of compressed air energy storage and underground pumped hydro storage systems. The results are listed in terms of relative risks for the construction and operation of these systems in different geologic deposits, with varying amounts of pressurization, with natural or man-made disasters in the vicinity of the storage equipment, and with different modes of operating the facilities. (LCL)



    Iulia Iuga


    A credit institution must establish a management framework of the operational risk.This framework must cover the appetite and tolerance to the operational risk of a credit institution,in accordance with the management policies of this risk, including the measure and method inwhich the operational risk is transferred outside the credit institution.The management framework of the operational risk should include policies and processes for theidentification, assessment, monitoring and control/dim...

  3. Pesticides drive risk of micropollutants in wastewater-impacted streams during low flow conditions. (United States)

    Munz, Nicole A; Burdon, Francis J; de Zwart, Dick; Junghans, Marion; Melo, Laura; Reyes, Marta; Schönenberger, Urs; Singer, Heinz P; Spycher, Barbara; Hollender, Juliane; Stamm, Christian


    Micropollutants enter surface waters through various pathways, of which wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are a major source. The large diversity of micropollutants and their many modes of toxic action pose a challenge for assessing environmental risks. In this study, we investigated the potential impact of WWTPs on receiving ecosystems by describing concentration patterns of micropollutants, predicting acute risks for aquatic organisms and validating these results with macroinvertebrate biomonitoring data. Grab samples were taken upstream, downstream and at the effluent of 24 Swiss WWTPs during low flow conditions across independent catchments with different land uses. Using liquid chromatography high resolution tandem mass spectrometry, a comprehensive target screening of almost 400 organic substances, focusing mainly on pesticides and pharmaceuticals, was conducted at two time points, and complemented with the analysis of a priority mixture of 57 substances over eight time points. Acute toxic pressure was predicted using the risk assessment approach of the multi-substance potentially affected fraction, first applying concentration addition for substances with the same toxic mode of action and subsequently response addition for the calculation of the risk of the total mixture. This toxic pressure was compared to macroinvertebrate sensitivity to pesticides (SPEAR index) upstream and downstream of the WWTPs. The concentrations were, as expected, especially for pharmaceuticals and other household chemicals higher downstream than upstream, with the detection frequency of plant protection products upstream correlating with the fraction of arable land in the catchments. While the concentration sums downstream were clearly dominated by pharmaceuticals or other household chemicals, the acute toxic pressure was mainly driven by pesticides, often caused by the episodic occurrence of these compounds even during low flow conditions. In general, five single substances

  4. Comprehensive condition assessment of bridge decks by multimodal NDE (United States)

    Gucunski, Nenad; Feldmann, Ruediger; Romero, Francisco; Kruschwitz, Sabine; Parvardeh, Hooman


    Corrosion induced bridge deck delamination is a common problem in reinforced concrete decks. While condition assessment can be done using a number of traditional and NDE methods, the presented study concentrates on a complementary use of five NDE techniques: impact echo (IE), ground penetrating radar (GPR), half-cell potential (H-C), ultrasonic surface waves (USW) and electrical resistivity (ER). Each of the five techniques has its advantages and limitations. However, each of them can contribute to a more comprehensive assessment of the condition of a deck. For example, GPR can identify deteriorated bridge deck areas, while IE can accurately detect and characterize delaminations in the deck. USW, on the other hand, provides information about material degradation through a measurement of concrete elastic moduli. Finally, H-C will provide information about the likelihood for active corrosion, while ER will assess potential for corrosive environment. There are also secondary benefits of the use of the five techniques, like e.g. mapping of concrete cover from GPR surveys. A brief overview of the techniques and their complementary use illustrated by the results from deck testing on several bridges is presented. The presented surveys were conducted on both decks (typical thickness 7 to 9 inches) and slabs (typical thickness 14-20 inches), some with an additional PC overlay. Results include delamination maps from IE, attenuation maps from GPR, modulus distribution maps from USW, H-C potential maps, and resistivity maps from ER. Some of the results are validated through a series of "ground truth" measurements, like inspection of cores taken from the decks.

  5. International Global Crop Condition Assessments in the framework of GEOGLAM (United States)

    Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Vermote, E.; Whitcraft, A. K.; Claverie, M.


    The Group on Earth Observations (partnership of governments and international organizations) developed the Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative in response to the growing calls for improved agricultural information. The goal of GEOGLAM is to strengthen the international community's capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate forecasts of agricultural production at national, regional and global scales through the use of Earth observations. This initiative is designed to build on existing agricultural monitoring initiatives at national, regional and global levels and to enhance and strengthen them through international networking, operationally focused research, and data/method sharing. GEOGLAM was adopted by the G20 as part of the action plan on food price volatility and agriculture and is being implemented through building on the extensive GEO Agricultural Community of Practice (CoP) that was initiated in 2007 and includes key national and international agencies, organizations, and universities involved in agricultural monitoring. One of the early GEOGLAM activities is to provide harmonized global crop outlooks that offer timely qualitative consensus information on crop status and prospects. This activity is being developed in response to a request from the G-20 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and is implemented within the global monitoring systems component of GEOGLAM. The goal is to develop a transparent, international, multi-source, consensus assessment of crop growing conditions, status, and agro-climatic conditions, likely to impact global production. These assessments are focused on the four primary crop types (corn, wheat, soy and rice) within the main agricultural producing regions of the world. The GEOGLAM approach is to bring together international experts from global, regional and national monitoring systems that can share and discuss information from a variety of independent complementary sources in

  6. Human Health Toxicity Values in Superfund Risk Assessments (United States)

    This memorandum revises the hierarchy of human health toxicity values generally recommended for use inr isk assessments, originally presented in Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Volume I, Part A.

  7. Dangerousness and risk assessment: the state of the art. (United States)

    Bauer, Arie; Rosca, Paula; Khawalled, Razak; Gruzniewski, Adrian; Grinshpoon, Alex


    Risk or dangerousness is an issue which burdens the minds of all mental health and law enforcement professionals. Researchers have attempted to define its extent and constituent elements and to predict and assess it. Risk assessment is a complex task, influenced by the interaction of many variables, such as previous pattern of violence, biological, sociological and psychological factors, divided into facilitating and inhibiting factors. In our paper we discuss the theoretical concepts linked with dangerousness prediction and assessment, and then review the "first" and "second" generations of literature on dangerousness and risk assessment, including the actuarial instruments. We then present the current trends in the field, concentrating on the correlation between dangerousness and mental disorders, dangerousness analysis and risk management, a wider concept including prevention, treatment and communication of risk. Although great progress has been made in this field, there are still many unresolved issues, among them the development of valid instruments for the assessment of risk.

  8. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D


    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  9. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis


    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  10. Development of the Sports Organization Concussion Risk Assessment Tool (SOCRAT). (United States)

    Yeung, A; Munjal, V; Virji-Babul, N


    In this paper, we describe the development of a novel tool-the Sports Organization Concussion Risk Assessment Tool (SOCRAT)-to assist sport organizations in assessing the overall risk of concussion at a team level by identifying key risk factors. We first conducted a literature review to identify risk factors of concussion using ice hockey as a model. We then developed an algorithm by combining the severity and the probability of occurrence of concussions of the identified risk factors by adapting a risk assessment tool commonly used in engineering applications. The following risk factors for ice hockey were identified: age, history of previous concussions, previous body checking experience, allowance of body checking, type of helmet worn and the game or practice environment. These risk factors were incorporated into the algorithm, resulting in an individual risk priority number (RPN) for each risk factor and an overall RPN that provides an estimate of the risk in the given circumstances. The SOCRAT can be used to analyse how different risk factors contribute to the overall risk of concussion. The tool may be tailored to organizations to provide: (1) an RPN for each risk factor and (2) an overall RPN that takes into account all the risk factors. Further work is needed to validate the tool based on real data.

  11. Assessing the Construct Validity of Risk Attitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Smidts, A.


    Two major approaches to measuring risk attitude are compared. One, based on the expected utility model is derived from responses to lotteries and direct scaling. The other measure is a psychometric approach based on Likert statements that produces a unidimensional risk attitude scale. The data are

  12. Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati


    Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

  13. Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: Are We There Yet? (United States)

    Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge


    Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…

  14. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.


    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing the envi......The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing...... the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...

  15. OPPT workplan risk assessment for antimony trioxide (CASRN ... (United States)

    This assessment will focus on the ecological hazards that may be associated with ATO use in flame retardants. Because ATO’s use in PET plastics was previously evaluated and determined to present minimal concerns for human health and the environment (EU, 2008), this use scenario will not be evaluated here. Human health risks have been evaluated previously and will be summarized in this assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  16. Drought Risk Assessment based on Natural and Social Factors (United States)

    Huang, Jing; Wang, Huimin; Han, Dawei


    In many parts of the world, drought hazard is becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change and human activities. It is crucial to monitor and assess drought conditions, especially for decision making support in agriculture sector. The vegetation index (VI) decreases, and the land surface temperature (LST) increases when the vegetation is under drought stress. Therefore both of these remotely sensed indices are widely used in drought monitoring and assessment. Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) is obtained by establishing the feature space of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST, which reflects agriculture dry situation by inverting soil moisture. However, these indices only concern the natural hazard-causing factors. Our society is a complex large-scale system with various natural and social elements. The drought risk is the joint consequence of hazard-causing factors and hazard-affected bodies. For example, as the population increases, the exposure of the hazard-affected bodies also tends to increase. The high GDP enhances the response ability of government, and the irrigation and water conservancy reduces the vulnerability. Such characteristics of hazard-affected bodies should be coupled with natural factors. In this study, the 16-day moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and LST data are combined to establish NDVI-Ts space according to different land use types in Yunnan Province, China. And then, TVDIs are calculated through dry and wet edges modeled as a linear fit to data for each land cover type. Next, the efforts are turned to establish an integrated drought assessment index of social factors and TVDI through ascertaining attribute weight based on rough sets theory. Thus, the new CDI (comprehensive drought index) recorded during spring of 2010 and the spatial variations in drought are analyzed and compared with TVDI dataset. Moreover, actual drought risk situation in the study area is given to

  17. Assessment of bioclimatic conditions in Crete Island, Greece (United States)

    Bleta, A.; Nastos, P. T.; Matzarakis, A.


    The objective of this study is to assess and analyze the human bioclimatic conditions of Crete Island, using the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), which is one of the most popular human thermal indices derived from the human energy balance. Bioclimatic studies provide a framework linking biophysical climate sensitivity to social/economic factors that mitigate or amplify the consequences of environmental changes. PET is defined as the physiological equivalent temperature at any given place (outdoors or indoors). It is equivalent to the air temperature at which, in a typical indoor setting, the heat balance of the human body (work metabolism 80 W of light activity, added to basic metabolism; heat resistance of clothing 0.9 clo) is maintained with core and skin temperatures equal to those of the under assessment conditions. It has been realized that, to estimate the thermal effect of the environment to the human body, the total of effects of all of the thermal components, not only as individual parameters, should be taken into account. The climatic data (air temperature, relative humidity, cloudiness, wind speed) for Crete Island, were obtained by archives of fifteen meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS). These data of period 1955-2010 were used for the calculation of PET in order to interpret the grade of the thermo-physiological stress. Crete Island, as it is located in the Southeastern Mediterranean basin, is of great touristic interest due to its splendid landscapes, archaeological sites and coastal areas combined with its excellent climatic conditions. However, Crete Island is frequently affected by Saharan outbreaks which are associated with miscellaneous phenomena, such as Föhn winds - hot and dry winds - causing extreme bioclimatic conditions (strong heat stress). The exploitation of the results of this analysis, such as bioclimatic diagrams, temporal and spatial distributions of PET as well as trends and

  18. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille


    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...... randomly selected 5000 women living in the region of Southern Denmark aged 40-90 years to receive a mailed questionnaire concerning risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX. The predicted 10-year probability of hip fractures was calculated for each woman returning a complete questionnaire using...... the Swedish version of FRAX. The observed 10-year hip fracture risk was also calculated for each woman using age-specific hip fracture rates from the National Hospital Discharge Register and National survival tables. RESULTS: A total of 4194 (84%) women responded to the questionnaire and 3636 (73%) gave...

  19. Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Monira Hussain


    Full Text Available Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

  20. Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking (United States)

    Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John


    This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…